UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Chantal, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the UWM Holdings Corporation Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Blake Kolo, you may begin your conference.

  • Blake Kolo - Head of IR & Chief Business Officer

  • Good morning, everyone. This is Blake Kolo, Chief Business Officer and Head of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 UWM Holdings Corporation's Earnings Call. Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call includes forward-looking statements. For more information about factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, please refer to the earnings release that we issued this morning. I will now turn the call over to Mat Ishbia, Chairman and CEO of UWM Holdings Corporation and United Wholesale Mortgage.

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Blake. Appreciate it. So let's jump into it. I appreciate you guys all joining the call today. First off, let's talk about 2021. It was an amazing year for UWM, and I think it makes sense for me to focus on recapping our key achievements for the year before getting into the quarterly results and outlook for 2022.

  • First, UWM set a new production record in 2021 with just under $227 billion in origination, up almost $44 billion from 2020. One of the most impressive aspects of this is that $87 billion of production was purchased business, which is most in company history in any given year. In addition, we averaged about $25 billion in purchased production in each of the last 3 quarters of 2021. My second key point is our consistent growth and profitability quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. 2021 marked our seventh consecutive year of origination growth and our 15th consecutive year of profitability. We delivered $1.6 billion in net income, our second most profitable year ever.

  • Our continued focus on speed, service and best-in-class technologies while we continue to deliver these results. However, our scale is now also a huge factor in our success. Our scale that gives us increased confidence in our continued ability to deliver strong and consistent results for all of our shareholders. My third point is our continued advancement in technology. In 2021, we launched many amazing technologies, but the biggest one of note is BOLT, the most advanced underwriting system in the industry, BOLT gives brokers more control up front in the loan origination process. And we found that broker who has more control of the process naturally becomes more efficient and lowers our cost per loan.

  • We implemented UClose technology several years ago with the same goal of making the process and closing more efficient. And that has been a huge success as well. It's technology like BOLT and UClose to help us close loans faster than anyone in the industry and at lower origination costs. Lastly, I have to express that none of these accomplishments of 2021, which were amazing across the board would not be happening without our amazing team members, our amazing broker partners and the ideas we get from them and the partnership we've had, it's a huge part of our success with a great partnership. I'm excited for our continued success and growth together.

  • Now let's talk about the fourth quarter. We delivered $55 billion in production, representing our best fourth quarter of all time, beating our 2020 fourth quarter numbers. The $24.5 billion of purchase we delivered in the fourth quarter was a record for us and astounding 103% year-over-year, once again from Q4 on the purchase side. We know brokers are the dominant player in the purchase market. And we are confident you'll see the #1 direct funded purchase lender again in 2022.

  • We delivered $239.8 million of net income for the quarter with gain margins of 80 basis points. With these some of the lowest margins we've seen in a quarter history, we still remained very, very profitable. I believe these margin numbers are near the bottom, and I see the first quarter of 2022 being very similar to the fourth quarter, somewhere between 75 and 85 basis points of margin with $33 billion to $42 billion of production. We'll be very profitable at these numbers and we'll remain so even if it were lower.

  • Lastly, I want to focus on the most important part, which is 2022. Number one, the broker channel will continue to grow. The refi business flows, we're seeing retailers converting the wholesale channel at the fastest pace in many years. We've dedicated teams helping these loan officers with transition and making sure they're successful from day 1. We're seeing the most activity since the inception of our findamortgagebroker.com platform, all the signs are showing the broker channel is growing and at a faster pace than we've seen in years. We saw some of this happened in 2018 and '19, but this time, it will be much more dramatic, and we're seeing early signs at this point.

  • Number two, we've achieved significant scale and remain laser-focused on becoming more efficient. We believe our cost of loan will go down over the next 24 months with BOLT as it gets more adoption, and we continue to enhance the technology to make it even greater. And there's other big technology in the works as well. And finally, we continue to contemplate the best time to bring servicing in-house. We have a large servicing book with one of the lowest WACs, weighted average coupons, in the country. Well, as we also finished 2020 to over $400 billion. We know there's a lot of opportunity with this. We are exploring financial upside of bringing servicing in-house. We also think there's a great opportunity to develop our own best-in-class servicing platform, which have many additional benefits and present other business opportunities for UWM.

  • I appreciate everyone on the call for spending time with us today and look forward to seeing a lot of you on our campus for May 12 for UWM Live, which is an event where a lot of our clients will be there, a very big positive thing about the broker channel. We'd love to invite many of you guys to join us.

  • Now I'm going to turn it over to our CFO, Tim Forrester, to give a couple of other details about 2021 and the fourth quarter as well.

  • Timothy Forrester - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Mat. The fourth quarter was successful for the company in an even more challenging environment. Our volume in the quarter contributed solidly to a record year and was rooted in our strength in originating purchase loans. Originating purchase transaction is more challenging endeavor and our efficient execution is critical to process, underwrite and close a purchase transaction. Our operations are built for the purchase market to enable broker clients to provide a differentiated solution to American consumers.

  • The competitive environment pushed margins lower as compared to record margins we saw in the fourth quarter of 2020 and dropped a bit from the prior quarter. Even with the increased competition, our financial performance remained strong, and our return on equity for the quarter was impressive. Another item that is important to consider is the composition of our gain margin. Our production volume was lower in Q4 over Q3, our on-balance sheet loan balances were up. This is primarily a result of the new loan limits and our retention of those loans until we sold them under the new limits in 2022.

  • To give some context, we sold around $5.8 billion more in loans in the first week of January than we originated and around $9.5 billion more for the month. Because we incurred the hedging cost in our gain margin to get the economic benefits in our interest line items, it further pushed down the margins from an already competitive environment. Overall, the economics made sense for us to hold the loans. It just shows up in different line items. Head cost in the gain margin, interest income and expense, both higher or in the case of interest expense higher than it would have otherwise been.

  • While we did consummate our first MSR sale in 18 months at the end of Q3, our servicing portfolio still increased and delivered additional substantive revenue for the quarter. While our servicing costs increased along with the larger portfolio, the servicing revenue dollar increase was significantly larger than the incremental servicing cost. As we continue to grow the portfolio, we will increase this benefit. This is important from an earnings perspective as well as cash flows.

  • As noted, we held a large balance of loans in Q4 to more efficiently deliver into Agency MBS, while interest income increased, expense actually declined. A majority of that intra-period -- a majority of that was intra-period self warehousing of loans where we self-fund to use our available liquidity more effectively, which then holds down the interest expense.

  • Given that our overall warehouse balances were increasing due to the retention of loans, the performance on interest expense was quite positive. The MSR portfolio was just under $320 billion at December 31, with a weighted average coupon, or WAC, of 2.94%. The portfolio was $285 billion at September 30 with a weighted average interest rate of 2.95%. So up a decent amount in size and slightly down on rate, which positions us well.

  • Our forbearance rate is roughly 57 basis points, down from 83 basis points at prior quarter end. So forbearance has not impacted us as much as others in the industry, and we expect that to continue to be the case. Our (inaudible) in overall delinquency continue to be under 1%. So we are continuing to observe better asset quality than the industry overall. Now that the Fed has indicated not only tapering but a fairly clear path of rate increases to be expected, our MSR book is well positioned to generate cash. The WAC is already well below the market and further upward movement makes it that much more attractive.

  • We issued a balanced tenor of unsecured debt in the quarter to support our MSR growth in line with our increased capital while maintaining an appropriate debt ratio between the features -- each feature. We believe our operational performance and credit discipline will continue to provide further unsecured debt opportunity if market conditions align with need. Cost per loan was again solid in the quarter. We experienced cost per loan of $1,557 for Q4, which continued our performance from prior periods in maintaining discipline, efficiency and making necessary investments in our people and processes.

  • For the year, we continue to perform well on cost per loan and the relationship between fixed and variable costs. Beyond our immediate cost to produce a loan, the wholesale model has considerably less fixed cost to spread in lower volume environments as we continue to invest in technology and innovation, we seek to improve such cost performance long term. As a reminder, when we discuss cost per loan, ours is a fully loaded cost without exclusions. We do not exclude allocations, corporate costs or measure costs on an incremental or a direct basis.

  • Our Board executed their responsibilities, engaged management in substantive discussion on the merit of a dividend, and believed it was prudent to provide to the public shareholders. As noted in the press release, our Board again authorized a regular dividend to be paid to our public shareholders, consistent with our track record as a publicly traded company. We are comfortable with the amount and timing and believe it is appropriate to reward our stockholders.

  • Okay. Now I will turn the things back over to our Chairman and CEO, Mat Ishbia, for some closing remarks.

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Tim. Before turning it over to your questions, I want to summarize a few key points. UWM remains steadfast in our commitment to the wholesale channel. The channel continues to grow its share in the industry, and we'll see more retail loan officers migrate to the channel as rate rise. Even as all market share stay the same at 33%, there's a big opportunity for UWM, and I believe our market share will continue to climb.

  • Our cost structure and scale enable us to be highly profitable at these margins, and our dividend and accelerated share repurchase demonstrate our commitment to our shareholders. We're really excited about 2022. It's going to be another great year at UWM, and now I'm looking forward to turning it over and taking some questions from you. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Doug Harter with Crédit Suisse.

  • Douglas Michael Harter - Director

  • Hoping we can get more into the cost side. Kind of as industry volumes come down in 2022, can you just talk about the mix? How much is fixed cost? And how in the short to intermediate term we should expect the cost per loan to trend?

  • Timothy Forrester - Executive VP & CFO

  • Doug, it's Tim. Yes, I would expect that just like anything, when you have a smaller denominator, the cost will increase a slight amount. But what we projected and what our goal and target for 2022 is still going to remain at $1,500 per loan of -- cost per loan. In the first quarter, normally, you'll see a little bit higher cost per loan for a couple of reasons. You'll have a higher cost load for various expenses in January, February, March as some of limits get hit into a threshold, but also because of some of the lighter volume that you expect in the first quarter.

  • So we do expect first quarter to have a little bit of higher cost, but that will be made up in Q2 and Q3 as volume comes through the seasonal process. As far as the proportions, typically, you see somewhere between 70% and 80%, 82% being a fixed cost relative to our portion of how to produce a loan. If you do that on a comparative basis to the retail channel, our share of variable cost is much higher in that there's more variable -- variability in the cost to produce a loan through the wholesale channel than there is retail.

  • So while we would expect 80% of our cost per loan at $1,500 or $1,550 to be a fixed cost on the overall scale, including broker compensation, it's a highly -- it's more highly variable as far as the cost structure.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

  • Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow up on the guidance for the first quarter. It seems like your guidance would indicate nearly a 30% quarter-over-quarter decline in originations. That seems more in line with the refi expectations for the quarter on a quarter-over-quarter basis. But it would seem like the brokers are more focused on the purchase side, which has seen a little bit less decline. Is there some dynamic going on, on the quarter-to-quarter trends that would cause it to be more refi-heavy versus purchase heavy and therefore, the decline, quarter-over-quarter?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes, this is Mat. Thanks for the question. No, I think you're looking at it a little bit differently than I think of it. Part of the purchase growth, which January, February and March are always the slowest purchase months of the year besides the Northern states, just in general, skew, a lot of different aspects. But then the piece that we're not taking into account is inventory throughout the market.

  • And so although applications are strong on purchase, the movement of houses and the lack of inventory does make the purchase not as vibrant in the first quarter as it would have been in the, whatever, fourth quarter or third quarter. So our perspective is that the market will be stronger in the second quarter from a purchase perspective. But we're going to have a great quarter in the first quarter volume wise.

  • And I think if you look at our Q1 2021 versus our Q1 2022, the decline at UWM will be substantially less than all the other refi shops you're speaking about, but not as small of a decline as we'd hope if purchase inventory was stronger. Same thing if you look at Q4 2020 to Q4 2021 where almost everyone went down in volume, we did not. We actually grew our mortgage volume. So I think you'll start to see that trend different with UWM and the strength of our business going forward, as you already saw in the fourth quarter with volume numbers.

  • Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then is your revenue recognition on fallout adjusted locks or is it on origination volume because that would -- and then is your fallout adjusted locks going to be above or below your origination volume in the first quarter?

  • Timothy Forrester - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Our revenue recognition is upon the origination of the loan. We don't recognize revenue when we receive an application. So there is a difference between that. So the fallout adjusted that you see in some of the other companies that report, it doesn't have a direct implication on immediate income or revenue. It's more of a forecast into the future periods.

  • Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then a quick question follow-up on Doug's questions around expenses. What order of magnitude do you expect the expenses to decline in the first quarter just given the decline in production volume? I know you addressed some of it as being variable expense. But I was hoping maybe you can give a little bit more detail on some of the expense decline that could occur, just given seasonality and the movement in production volume.

  • Timothy Forrester - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think the expenses will actually go up on an overall basis, both on a nominal basis because some of the tax implications of how people are compensated. So number one, I think the overall expenses are a little bit higher. But what will offset that is our staffing levels and some of how we address some costs and what we do on the ongoing management of the business will be a little bit shorter in the first quarter. So overall, the expense on a per loan basis may be a little bit higher on the fixed side because the overall volume is lower, also a small amount of pickup in the overall expense because of some of those tax features and other relevant items.

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And just to add to that, Kevin, so you understand. We're going to be highly profitable in the first quarter. So we're -- just like we were in the fourth quarter. So if you're thinking of expenses as lower volume, that expense are going to become an issue, they're not, because of our technology, and our cost to originate is so much better than the industry. You're going to see that in the first quarter numbers.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

  • James Eugene Faucette - MD

  • I'm wondering if you think about the kind of the change in, obviously, the interest rate environment, et cetera, and the impact that, that's having on refis generally. But I'm wondering where does cash-out refi fit in? And can you talk a little bit about the traction that you have had within cash-out refi? And is that impacting your business planning at all for 2022?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. So interest rate is moving up, which we're all very aware of. Once again, I've talked about it for over a year now is a positive sign for the broker channel, a positive sign for UWM from a market share perspective. Cash out is one way that a lot of lenders are going to try to rev up their business. And we'll do cash out refinance because there's a lot of opportunity out there in that world. But purchase business is the determinator of success in a rising rate environment. There's a lot of different gimmicks and a lot of different ways to try to do a lot of refi business, which we'll do refis and we'll do cash outs, and we'll do as much business as we can.

  • However, you'll start to see the signs of business based on purchase volume. And at the same time, you'll be able to look over year-over-year and see who is dependent on refi and who's not as dependent on refi. So cash out will be a bigger part of the business in 2022. However, with equity in-house going up, however, it's not the saving grace that's going to keep people's volumes at what they were in 2021.

  • And so when you see our first quarter volume, we feel really confident with where we're at compared to our competition, and that will drive our market share up and that ties to the broker channel as well. Loan officers are joining the broker channel and the biggest push that we've seen since 2018, and it's going to be much bigger than '18. And so we're excited about that opportunity as UWM only plays in 20% of the market, the broker channel. And if that market goes to 30%, we're going to grow even though the market share or the overall market will decline.

  • James Eugene Faucette - MD

  • And I wanted to ask a quick follow-up question on expenses. And I think you touched on this earlier, but just looking for a little more color here with volumes down and compensation expenses down similarly, but production costs up around a third, quarter-over-quarter. Can you describe again for me what's happening there? And I guess the bigger question I have is how can we think about the room for future inefficiencies in mortgage servicing overall? And how the expenses in UWM, so you can achieve more efficiency in the overall process?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. So if you're talking about servicing, which I hear you saying mortgage loans, I couldn't follow up if you were asking about servicing or origination.

  • James Eugene Faucette - MD

  • Yes. So I was trying to refer -- sorry, I was trying to refer primarily to origination.

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Great. So I mean, I mentioned it in my remarks earlier about a lot of different technology and efficiencies we put in place, BOLT is the main one that's done a lot of different things. And as that adoption continues, that will be a major springboard for lower cost and more efficiencies. UWM is already the most efficient lender in the country, closing loans faster than the market by a wide margin even in the purchase market, which is a major competitive advantage. But also our cost to originate is lower, as Tim mentioned already.

  • And that's why even in low margin scenarios, as the fourth quarter was, we were highly profitable. That will continue going forward, and our efficiencies will only grow and be more successful as BOLT becomes a bigger part of it. So BOLT along with UClose, which is our closing technology, are both proprietary and highly effective ways to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and it's a great service for our clients.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Bose George with KBW.

  • Bose Thomas George - MD

  • I just wanted to ask about, again, on sale margin sort of outlook after the first quarter. Just curious because seasonality gets better, but just curious, your thoughts on competition or whether that you think that intensifies or just outlook for later in the year would be great?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. So being in the wholesale channel, our margins are already lower in general than the retail channel. Where you're going to see a lot of compression is a lot of these retail lenders and other lenders are going to be bringing their margins down. Like I said in my remarks, I think we're basically at the bottom level. That's why I guided the 75 to 85, which is 80, which is what we did this quarter, it was right in the middle of that number.

  • So do I think that the margins are going to go up in the second, third and fourth quarter? Yes, or flat. They will not go down, is my perspective. And it's really not as much competitive pressure as the opportunity to move loan officers from the retail channel to the wholesale channel. It's a business development strategy. It's working fantastically, and we feel great about where we're going with it. And so we'll decide on how long that will continue and how it will go going forward. But the reality is, I don't see it going lower than the 75 to 85 basis point number I gave earlier today.

  • Bose Thomas George - MD

  • Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then actually just in terms of the decision to move servicing -- or potentially move servicing in-house, is it purely a cost thing? Or are they -- are there other benefits to doing that?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. So there's a lot of different benefits to potentially doing that. We look at a lot of different things from cost potentially, but also service to our consumers and to brokers, which help. As we continue -- our servicing book continues to grow, it's a bigger part of our business overall. And so we look at all things. And that's why I mentioned that, something that we are going to look at doing, and we bet it. But at the same time, we have great servicing -- subservicing partners right now that are doing a very good job for us. And we feel confident in the process we have today.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Henry Coffey with Wedbush.

  • Henry Joseph Coffey - MD of Equities Research

  • There's been a lot of talk about technology. How -- if I were to open up a brokerage firm tomorrow, how comprehensive would the United Wholesale offering be? I mean would I need other resources to be able to originate loans or with what you offer, sort of, create a total in-house platform for me?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes, Henry. So good question. We have the platform. And so I'd like to call it turnkey, we call it broker in a box, however you want to think about it, but we can get someone up and running. The longest pole in the tent is usually the state licensing or the state recognizing a new broker shop. And so that in some states are 30 days, some states are 90 days, whatever it may be. But we put that ability.

  • And so loan officers that are calling, we're getting hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds are reaching out to us saying, let me start my shop, let me go through that process or let me leave the retail channel and join the brokerage channel. We first find out whether they want to join the channel and work for a loan originator and not a broker shop, and we can always refer them or connect them to other ones in the neighborhood or in their area.

  • Or if they want to start their own shop if they're leading a retail company, it's -- like I said, it's broker in a box, we can walk them through soup to nuts, start to finish. They can use our technology to originate loans, they can use our technology to close loans, they can use our technology to stay in front of their past clients, they can use our technology that's all been built proprietary, all the way from start to finish where they will -- so I don't think that a lot of them 18 different vendors just become a mortgage broker. So it's a huge competitive advantage. That's why everyone calls us. Obviously, we're the leader in the industry. And a lot of people just start using that technology, and that's what they use going forward.

  • Henry Joseph Coffey - MD of Equities Research

  • So on -- so I don't need to go use Ellie Mae as long as I'm -- or some other vendor as long as I'm content with being just in the broker channel.

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Absolutely. No, you do not...

  • Henry Joseph Coffey - MD of Equities Research

  • You talked a lot about the growth of the broker channel, and we've seen a little bit of that statistically in the historical numbers. But can you give us some comments on why you think it's going to grow to 30% and over what time frame?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. So it's going to grow to 33% by 2025, 2026, that's when we projected. You'll see a big part of that leap in the second, third and fourth quarter this year because the loan officers are all migrating right now. You've heard about multiple retail lenders whether they're cutting compensation for loan officer or losing money or struggling, we're not in that position.

  • We're here to help guide those loan officers to be successful in the broker channel and help them win. And so it's a very strong position that we're in, and those loans officers are going to move and migrate. With that being said, the big thing that I don't think people realize is the mega retail lenders, I won't name names, but you know who they are, are very reliant on churning their past servicing book to get all their volumes.

  • So when they say they retain all their business, that's a big part of their origination volume. That's not our origination volume. That's not the broker's origination volume. So just by the fact that these large retail lenders that have refinanced and churned their servicing book for the last 2 years, and that's where 60%, 70% of their volume came from, that coming out of the market is a big part of the decline in the overall origination space.

  • Brokers don't have that at that scale. And so therefore, the broker channel will naturally grow because the retail channel is going to go down faster. Loan officers are going to migrate over. It's going to be a win-win for brokers. And once again, the pie for UWM will grow or will not shrink like the retail channel, and that's why you'll see our market share in 2022 be the largest it's ever been.

  • Henry Joseph Coffey - MD of Equities Research

  • On the overhead, by comparison, can you give me some sense of what origination -- the cost to originate loan was either in the third quarter or the year ago period? And what it's likely to look like in 2022? And then just related to that, and I'll get off the phone and listen, you did say that your overhead was going to be higher in the first quarter, but that sounds like that's more sort of seasonal stuff. Is that correct?

  • Timothy Forrester - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. More in the first quarter, it's a seasonal function of, first of all, the expenses tend to be a little bit higher in the first couple of months, and secondly, the volume is a little bit lower. So the overall cost, the fixed cost portion is going to be a little bit up during Q1. When we look back at prior years, again, the number comes in around $1,500, it might have been around $1,400 in a peak volume point. And I look at it monthly. We look at it monthly together. And so those can go down to those levels.

  • It can and has in Q1, for instance. There was 1 month this year that was as high as $2,000 per loan because of some costs that happened in a specific month. So it's still a profitable period for us, still a profitable venture. I wouldn't say that the cost should go up to that level during 2022 for any quarter. But even at those levels, we're still in a good position. And when I compare it to the overall retail cost structure, still with that added on to the overall fully comprehensive amount of originated loans, we're still well inside the overall retail production cost.

  • Operator

  • Our final question comes from Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

  • Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Sorry to follow up with the expenses again. But when I look at your guidance for production income, with the gain on sale and originations and then assume the servicing continues and you back out the fair value of the MSR, you have about a 20% decline in revenue, and you're saying the expenses are going to be flat to maybe up, that would indicate a pretty strong decline in being profitable.

  • I mean you mentioned that you're going to be fairly -- I don't know what word you to use, but fairly profitable in the first quarter. What is your definition of being very profitable? Or your comments around how profitable you're going to be, relative to some of the guidance that's out there? Like how would you frame that profitability?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • So depending on how you look at things, I guess my perspective real quick is, I don't think your model is correct and some of the analysis you're putting together there, we will be highly profitable even if you think originations declined as we talked about as I guided. If we hit our guidance, we'll be highly profitable is how I think about it. What's highly -- I mean, everyone has a different definition. But I guess you'll see in the first quarter a lot of success in -- from our business model.

  • On a per loan basis, we make money, not in counting MSR values, which will rise up because we have a very low WAC, weighted average coupon, which makes our MSRs extremely profitable as well, but just running the business, which is why I focus on, we are highly profitable, just like we were in the fourth quarter and we were in the third quarter, and we have been, I think, for every quarter for it. Go ahead, Tim.

  • Timothy Forrester - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And one other piece that we mentioned it earlier that our staffing levels have naturally migrated a little bit lower. So on an overall expense basis, I may have misspoken a little bit. Our cost per loan will go up. Some of our expenses will go up. But because we've managed our head count and how we -- our hiring rates, our overall head count was a little bit lower or we expect it to be a little bit lower in the first quarter. So it does match with a lower expense. We tend to look at things very granularly.

  • As Mat said, we're looking at it on a per loan basis and how that works together with the volume. So overall, expenses, there tends to be a little bit more load per team member in the first quarter. And with lower volume, that will seem to be higher. But overall, our expense is -- because most of our expenses are driven by the number of people we have because we have fewer people at this point than we did in Q3 or Q2, that overall cost will be a little bit lower as well.

  • Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then your employee count has increased consistently for the last I would say, nearly 4 years, maybe longer, wen had disclosures back then. But are you making a conscious effort to adjust for the industry and the demand that's in the market today?

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks for the question. I'm making a conscious effort to run the business as successful as possible. So no, we're not cutting people. We're not like everybody else. And so you can have confidence that we'll run the business, we'll be highly profitable. You'll see the numbers across the board. And so our people we hired, we hired a lot so far this year. We'll continue to hire, and we'll continue to grow and succeed and excel in our business platform, and the numbers will continue to come through very strong besides in the earnings, but also in the dividend that is very strong as well.

  • So we feel really great about the business, and we're not -- we don't lay off like other companies, and we don't have the need to because of our cost of origination, our technology is superior to our competition. And you'll see that in the numbers once again, as you've seen for the last year, and you'll continue to see going forward.

  • Operator

  • That will wrap up the Q&A portion. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mat Ishbia for closing remarks.

  • Mathew R. Ishbia - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. Well, thank you guys all for the questions and the feedback. We appreciate you, and we're looking forward to have another great quarter in 2022, first quarter and actually hopefully having one of our best years ever, once again. Thanks for the time and look forward to talking to you guys on next quarterly call.

  • Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.