美國無線通訊 (USM) 2002 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Brook. I'll be your

  • conference call operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Telephone Data System. And the

  • second quarter conference call. All lines have been placed an mute to prevent any background noise. After the

  • speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this

  • time, simply press star and then the #1 on our telephone key pad. If you would like to withdraw your question, then

  • press star and two on your telephone keypad. Mark Steincroft, vice-president of corporate relations at

  • TDS. Thank you. You may begin your conference.

  • Mark Steincroft - VP of Corporate Relations

  • Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us once again this. Sandy Helton, executive

  • vice-president of TDS, Jack Rooney executive vice-president and finance CFO at U.S. Cellular and executive finances

  • staff operations and CFO with TDS Telecom. A replay of the teleconference will be available today starting at 1 o'clock

  • Chicago time until Wednesday July 17th. The replay number is 800-642-1687. The pass code is 4818052.

  • This call is being simultaneously webcasted on the investor relations section on the TDS website at

  • www.TLDA.com and will be available for the next two weeks and thereafter will be archived on the website. The

  • information on the summary operating data pages of the press releases changes almost every quarter these days as we add

  • new information so be careful to view that. And realize that the format and some of the content might have changed.

  • As always, it's important for you to know that some of the discussion today, either in our prepared comments or during

  • the Q and A session are representative of forward-looking statements.

  • While these statements are based on the most reliable data available at this time, any forward-looking

  • statements involves certain risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those

  • in the forward-looking statements. These risk and uncertainties are many and

  • varied and can and do change from quarter to quarter and are noted in the press releases. Investors and any other

  • interested parties are strongly encouraged to read the company's annual report as well as the filings of the SEC to

  • get a better understanding of the company's operations and any changes.

  • This call is being recorded by TDS and is copyrighted material. It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast

  • without Telephone and Data Systems' express permission. Your participation implies consent to our taping. Please

  • drop off the line if you don't agree to these terms. If you're not getting notification from us

  • about the teleconferences or have changed your e-mail address, please contact me and we'll get you all set up.

  • Also, if you have some suggestions how we can more effectively get information to you or you have some

  • suggestions about additional information you would like to see in our press releases, please give me a call to discuss

  • it. At this time I usually try to remind that TDS

  • and U.S. Cellular will be speaking at investment conferences later on this fall. The two that are coming up immediately

  • TDS presenting at the Morgan Stanley conference in Florida, September 9 and 10. I don't know which date we're

  • presenting quite yet. And both TDS and U.S. Cellular are presenting at the UBS Warburg conference November 11 through

  • 13. Also, if you're in the Chicago area or

  • Madison area and you would like to meet with management or business units, all of whom we make available to the

  • investment community, we'll make that happen. Press releases were posted to the TDS home page shortly after

  • going out over the wire and U.S. Cellular post their releases to their website as well. I'll turn the phone call

  • over to Sandy. Thank you.

  • Sandy Helton - Executive VP

  • Thank you. Good morning. I'll quickly review the highlights. All three of our business groups

  • posted improving month to month as we move through the quarter. Some of this is typical seasonal. It's a little

  • too early to say if the trend reflects some improvement in economic conditions but hopefully that's the case for the

  • most part our operating results are at or slightly better than expectations. Fortunately it was a business as usual

  • quarter the details of which Ken and Dave will cover in a few moments. Revenue totaled 724 million dollars in the

  • quarter an increase of 12.5. Solid revenue growth of 8.7 in service revenues with significantly higher equipment sales

  • which Ken will explain in his remarks. U.S. Cellular recorded improved year-over-year average revenue per unit or

  • ARPU due entirely to hire retail service revenue this is the second quarter in a row which it improved year to year. TDS

  • Telecom revenues were up 17.4 percent with growth bolstered by the acquisition of [course communications] and

  • exceptional growth of 77 percent in the operation of TDS Metrocom. Cash flow increase the 6.1 percent to 246 million

  • dollars. Operating cash flow like revenue growth due to hire expense, the cost of funding TDS Metrocom expansion.

  • Diluted earnings per share was a dollar 25 cents an increase of 40 percent compared to 89 cents a year ago object a

  • comparable accounting basis. Please keep in mind that TDS received in telecom in the quarter. During this quarter we

  • monetized the majority of two of our equity positions at TDS, 2,361,000 shares of [Vesera] were monetized in a 5 year

  • variable prepaid forward transaction on May 7. Forward and cap prices for this transaction were 8.82 and $11.47. The

  • purchase totaled 18.9 million dollars. Taxes on any gain are deferred until maturity.

  • At U.S. Cellular, 10,245,000 of [Votaphone] were monetized in a similar manner on May 16. Lower end cap

  • price with $28.6. 160 million are anticipated to be used to partially fund the PrimeCo acquisition. Again a very solid

  • quarter based on the hard work of our 9800 associates. Our ongoing focus on the very best customer service helped

  • deliver excellent operating results in the first half of the year and we are confident it is the wing strategy for the

  • second half of the year and the years to come. Let me turn the call over to Ken Meyers.

  • Ken Meyers

  • Good morning and thank you for your time

  • today. Second quarter earnings release that U.S. Cellular issued this morning includes a whole page of key business

  • metrics as well as the income statement of the second quarter and the balance sheet of June 30. I will spend a

  • few minutes putting those results in perspective instead of repeating the information you already have.

  • First, this quarter we saw an increasing in total average revenue per customer from $47.26 in the second

  • quarter of last year to $48.48 this quarter. This improvement was driven by an in crease in retail revenue per

  • customer that averaged $37.93 this quarter. That's $1.28 increase own a year-over-year basis. This follows a

  • concerted efforts by the company to increase retail revenue by focusing or marketing initiatives on higher rate plan.

  • This is the second quarter in a row that retail revenue has grown on a year-over-year basis with the

  • current quarter's increase large enough to offset the expected decline in roaming revenue. Second, we saw

  • strengthening demand throughout the quarter. April was weak there a customer growth perspective. May improved and June

  • was even stronger and achieved internal targets that were set nearly ten months ago. While it's too early to tell

  • just where the economy goes next the last month has been encouraging.

  • Third, as sandy mentioned equipment revenue was up sharply year-over-year and sequential basis. This

  • reflects a change in the company's distribution plan. And is more reflective of what we would expect going forward.

  • This quarter we implemented a program to in sent our dealers to buy their phones directly from U.S. Cellular. This

  • allows us to ensure the quality of handsets that our customers receive and increases or purchasing power with our

  • vendors. The effect of this program is to increase

  • both equipment costs and equipment revenue. It has negligible effects on cost per gross ad. It added 391 is

  • above our targets. Clearly lower ad volume affected us while at the same time we did increase advertising in the

  • second quarter to support some new pricing plans. Also, this calculation includes all of our marketing costs.

  • Including amounts spent on future product offering such as data. These more future oriented costs added about $12 to

  • cost per gross ad this quarter. We plan to test 1X product offerings this

  • quarter in one of our existing CDMA markets and year on schedule to roll out CDMA by year end.

  • With respect to the PrimeCo acquisition we continue to make progress. We have a team working on

  • integration and launch. We have cleared Hart, Scott, Rodino, closed $250 million bank line and monetized our

  • Votaphone holding this quarter. We hope to place some long-term debt and close the acquisition during the third

  • quarter. Now, with one half the year gone there are

  • three turns of that developed. While deman has strengthened each quarter it has been weaker than originally expected.

  • As such we are now targeting to add 260 to 280,000 net new customers this year. This excluded the effects of any

  • acquisition including the pending PrimeCo deal. And reflects the slower growth we have seen so far.

  • Second, cash flow continues to grow nicely. However, lower than target the customers the second half

  • will have a slight effect on revenue and cash flow. Based upon our revised targets for customer growth with your tar

  • getting the operator cash flow in the 670 to 690 million dollars, the 710 million dollars range we were looking for

  • earlier this year. Finally, we see little current effect on capex since our CDMA conversion is a main driver and this is

  • on track. In fact, if we could, it would seed up this conversion process given its compelling economics.

  • As I said last quarter we will update or targets for the effect of the PrimeCo acquisition once it

  • closes. At this time due to the uncertainty as to the closing date just not possible to quantify the current

  • calendar year effect. Recapping, we saw respectable pickup in

  • growth in the quarter adding 30 percent more new customers this quarter than in the first quarter of this year. Second

  • total average revenue per customer increase the slightly on a year-over-year basis despite a decline in the absolutely

  • level of running revenue. An increase in retail revenue per customer was the main driver behind this result and this

  • continues a trend we saw last quarter. Customer loyalty remained high as evidenced

  • by our 1.7 percent postpay churn rate. These last two factors drove 176 million dollars of operating cash flow.

  • Finally our CDMA conversion overlay program is on schedule. Thank you for your interest this morning, now let me turn

  • the call over to have Dave [Witworth], TDA Telecom.

  • Dave Witworth

  • Thanks, Ken. Q2 businesses, ILEC equivalents grew 2.1 percent for the second quarter

  • excluding the effect of acquisition is which solid growth in difficult economic period. In addition to the internal line

  • growth we continued to increase penetration in our key vertical services and products including dialup and high

  • speed intended and long distance. Specific to our LD product we continued to use global crossing for the service.

  • However we have contingency plans in place in case service becomes problematic in the future.

  • MCI WorldCom represents one of the larger long distance provides for our customers. We would

  • typically have 10 to 12 million dollars. We have been monitoring this situation for sometime and will continue to

  • keep this account current. In the events of bankruptcy there would be some recourse in the pooling brothers. In

  • the event they are no longer able to provide service, their customers would simply move to another long distance carrier

  • including possibly our own on a going forward basis. 1 million dollars of which relating to the

  • first quarter. These revenues are included in the network access and long distance revenue category. This much

  • resulted from the correction of an error reported by the FCC recently. We had contemplated this corrected level of

  • funding in our business plans for 2002 and it has always been part of our guidance. Total ILEC revenues were up

  • operating cash flow grew 10.5 percent in line with our line. ILEC customers both dialup and high speed increased by 6,000

  • in the quarter. The market available covers 44 percent of our ILEC access lines and they serve 6600 customers. When

  • added to those served in our see lack markets brings the tomorrow to 16,500 customers. Continue to add market share

  • and crisply ILEC equivalent lines increased 22,400 an increase of 72 percent. Nearly 77 percent for the quarter

  • while cash flow losses were on plan. We have seen slightly higher levels of churn

  • during the last two quarters primarily for nonpayment. We have recognized these results and have put procedures in

  • place to manage it. During 2002 we are continuing to roll out the service expansions in Michigan that we began last

  • year as well as deeper penetration in our other markets. Capital expenditures for 2002, 130 million dollars in the

  • ILEC business excluding acquisitions and 55 to 65 million in the CLEC business, we are scaling back the CLEC pricing for

  • fiber and much lower costs from construction contractors. Of our previously announce the acquisitions in New

  • Hampshire, the MCT access was finalized on May 31st and contributed to one month, revenues of 1.3 million and

  • operating cash flow of 600,000 in the quarter: Closed on July first and therefore had no impact on the quarter. We

  • expect revenues of 10 to 12 million dollars and operator cash flow of 4 to 5 million dollars in the second half of

  • 2002 for these acquistions. Capex associated 2 and a half to 3 and a half million dollars for that same period. And

  • integration for these two operations is going well. Turn it back to Mark.

  • Mark Steincroft - VP of Corporate Relations

  • Brook, we're ready to go into Q and A

  • whenever you are.

  • Operator

  • If you would like to ask a question, press the star and the #1 on your key pad. We'll pause for just a

  • moment to compile the roster. First question Rick Prentice with Raymond James.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. A couple questions

  • for you. First, Ken, the renewed or updated guidance of net ads to 260 to 280,000, does that include both external and

  • internal customer ads?

  • Ken Meyers

  • I don't know what you mean by internal external. Those are all internally generated through our

  • marketing channels. It does not include any effect of pending acquisition. I talked about the acquisition at

  • closing.

  • Analyst

  • Didn't you have some accesses or some small markets that increase the customer account.

  • Ken Meyers

  • We did but those are not in that number.

  • Analyst

  • That is true internal customer ads.

  • Ken Meyers

  • That's correct.

  • Analyst

  • Next question on cost per gross ad. You

  • mentioned 12 dollars in the quarters had to do with future data service. Had there been any of that type of spend

  • tires in the last quarter.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Very very little. We started building that group this quarter.

  • Analyst

  • All right. And any hints you wanted to

  • give us as far as the 1X trial, how you'll be pricing it?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Not at this point in time. It is strictly much more of a functionality test looking at some blue applications as

  • well as other alternatives.

  • Analyst

  • Not a marketing test, just more how does the work and how do people adapt to it.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • That's right. There's a lot around the customer data

  • that needs to be worked out.

  • Analyst

  • All right. And then lots of other potential speculation of licenses coming on to the market.

  • What has gotten their directory business, sales, indication of interest. Any interest in buying parts of Qwest,

  • wireless business or any other wireless licenses out there or if so how would that be approached given the current

  • capital markets.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • I think we have been clear that our strategy is to strengthen the footprint where we have presence to look at I

  • markets where aren't as strong and move out of them. Speculation as to any individual transaction is something

  • that I just can't engage in.

  • Analyst

  • Sure. And then the long-term debt market conditions or what's -

  • Unknown Speaker

  • We want to get the quarter behind us. And yeah, the

  • market hasn't been the most favorable environment over the last 60 days.

  • Analyst

  • All right. Good luck, guys.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Ken [Enwright]

  • with MSS Investment Management.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning. Sandy, two questions. Metrocom, it's my opinion since the deal has been announced

  • that $10 of the value ascribed just to the debt portion of Metrocom has been input in the deterioration of TDS stock

  • and nothing ascribed to the asset ledger, additional deterioration has come from does this change the rules of

  • strategy? My question is this, can you put some

  • parameters about what Metrocom will be in terms of much financing need over the next years? How much you're willing

  • to spend, what you won't spend and just a change in the strategy.

  • Sandy Helton - Executive VP

  • Are you referring to PrimeCo or Metro -

  • Analyst

  • I'm sorry. The whole question is about

  • PrimeCo.

  • Sandy Helton - Executive VP

  • All right. I think as Ken has indicated, once we expose the PrimeCo transaction we'll be given more

  • definitive expectations the near term and revenue cash flow needs are. I can simply say that we have reviewed the

  • acquisition and we believe that it's returning a greater than cost of capital return.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • I just want to add one thing. We keep on talking

  • about the rural strategy. And as sort of a one of the guidelines of setting the strategy, I don't think we've ever

  • defined the strategy for this company as a rural strategy. In fact, significant parts of our operating income

  • and revenue come from metropolitan areas like Milwaukee and Madison. And the future of this company isn't tied to

  • serving the the, necessarily, serving only a rural areas of this country.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. The second question is just, in

  • terms of closing the loop on the Deutchtel and VoiceStream. By my estimation, DeutchTel after tax proceeds represent 28

  • percent of the current market capitalization. An astounding number. Can you talk about any progress in what is going

  • on? You've made progress in [Votaphone]. Anything going on with the DeutchTel and in terms of closing that loop and

  • bringing the proceeds back to the shareholder.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Well, I appreciate your recognition that we have acted on the strategy that we described before. In terms of

  • monetizing the Votaphone for PrimeCo acquisition which we believe is a very good operating investment. And that will

  • be the way we look at our marketable securities portfolio going forward in terms of trading the expected value in the

  • securities for a higher value in operating.

  • Analyst

  • Do you have any opinion on the prospects for DeutchTel that are different than the market seems to

  • indicate?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Well, I think we have been very constructive on DeutchTel and we have the stock have felt that the stock is

  • undervalued but we clearly acknowledge that in the past there was a higher price that exists today. But we do have

  • expectations that the price will go up for Deutch Telecom.

  • Operator

  • Your next question (inaudible) with (inaudible).

  • Analyst

  • Great. A couple of questions on the TDS side. Can you characterize the access line growth, not necessarily

  • just VGE but the much actual line growth. The Metrocom side, the line ad is a little bit lower than what we were

  • looking for. Can you give us an idea of what is going on on the competitive front. You're actively looking at some of

  • your - looking at some of the ads and bad debt expense and trying to control some the churn there. What exactly are

  • you doing to scrub the customer base? Thanks.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Sure. Well, internal line of growth was about that 2.1 percent. If you look at just physical line count growth

  • was about 8/10 of a percent. That relationship is consistent. It looked a little stronger than. Relative to

  • the Metrocom part of the growth is due to nonpay. Primarily all of it. All they we have competitors in the market that

  • we're in. Those tend not to be our biggest issues. It tends to be nonpay I. It's primarily on the residential

  • side. So what we're doing is working to make sure that our credit scoring techniques are indeed correlated with our bad

  • debt experience and making whatever corrections we need to do to make sure that we're able to identify that early on in

  • the process. And that's probably what has impacted the

  • line growth a little bit in the month. We're not going to keep those customers around for an extended period of time.

  • The other thing, we accelerated that process so we get to those customers quicker. If the churn would have been lower

  • we would have had a little birth higher line growth.

  • Analyst

  • Do you think you've completed that process or something we should see for another quarter or 2.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • I think we've got most of it under our belt. The

  • economic conditions certainly have some impact in terms of it but I think we're cracking down on it a little harder.

  • Analyst

  • One last question on long distance pricing are you

  • seeing any significant drops, and how about bids from other carriers? Thanks.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • We typically don't talk a lot about our pricing in

  • terms of that. I think our rates are very reasonable. I don't think there's been a lot of movement in that area.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Great, thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Will Power with

  • Robert Baird.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning. A couple questions for Ken. First with regard to the he revised net edition guide. What

  • do you expect the drivers to be in the second half of the year. In part an economic recovery. It still looks to me

  • that the net addition guidance assumes the sending half of this year strong, any additional color along those lines and

  • then any color around the minute of use trends. I assume that's the fact for the higher ARPU, whether they're

  • increasing offpeak or any color there would be helpful.

  • Ken Meyers

  • With respect to the first question, in terms of ad growth, yes, we are expecting the second half of this

  • year to be stronger than the first half of this year. Last year was kind of anomaly where that didn't happen is the

  • first time we've seen that. And we've always looked at this year and expected to see a second half that is stronger kind

  • of economy underneath it. That's still our expectation. In terms of minutes of use, minutes of use,

  • for our customers averaged 280 minutes in the quarter. That's up from 215 in the second quarter of last year. When

  • we look at, that one minute of use offset work as percent of total are still running in the eight percent range that

  • they - that they have now for about the last two years. As minutes of use grow per customer the total

  • units off network grow but the total percentage the usage it's not change. Peak, off peak, really varies dramatically

  • by market. And the demographics underneath the market. There are markets that are more influenced by college

  • populations that clearly have a much bigger offpeak usage than other,. On average we are seeing more minutes offpeak

  • in terms of the mix peak, offpeak, than we have. That continues to evolve as people are now using their phones

  • more throughout the day instead of the relatively concentrated usage that used to happen right around certain

  • peak hours.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Ned [Sacker] with Thomas Weisel.

  • Analyst

  • Good average. Good numbers, ladies and

  • gentlemen. Part of the question, can you tell us how far along you are in that process, theme roll out. Percentage

  • of the pops covered or the subscriber base at this point.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Where we're at right now, is going into the decision approximately one-third of our markets were covered with

  • CDMA and two-thirds with TDMA. Our target was to get the state of Iowa converted this year. Which would mean we

  • would put an overlay system on top of the whole TDMA network throughout. That's our plan. We are on target to do that

  • before the end of the year. In terms. Percentage of pops it would get us

  • to, I don't have that number. He know I spoke about that before, especially when we made this decision. I can dig it

  • up.

  • Analyst

  • That's fine. I would like to follow up with you on that: The other question I had, the improvement

  • in retail revenue is that a change in plans or just more usage on the part of customers? What is driving that?

  • Also, could you comment on the current competitive environment within your territories that things are getting

  • more promotional, less, what have the trends been across the quarter, etcetera.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Clearly over the last year, they are - there are more

  • minutes in the various packages that are available out there at any given price point. But I think the big change over

  • the last year has been the focus of our marketing promotions and all of our initiatives at rate plans at $35 and higher.

  • So yes, minutes of use are up but it's more a matter of where you focus our marketing efforts.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • We're trying to put a maximum value in the higher rate

  • plans. To tract our customers and competitive situation, it's kind of hard to say that a business which is 100

  • percent promotional can get more than 100 percent promotional.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Are there any trends of late that

  • are worth note?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • I don't know that I've seen any major trend. I guess the way I described the sense of the market is that the,

  • it's still a very promotional market. The rate of decline in some of the pricing packages has slowed.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Roger Zack with

  • Cafe' Financial.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you. I have a few housekeeping questions. U.S. Cellular, Ken, if you can mention about

  • what the churn rate was for the quarter. I late to make you repeat it, could you just go through the CBGA, the reason it

  • was a little bit above your plan. The TDS side, the capex mentioned for the acquisitions on the 2 and a half to 3 and

  • a half million, is that included in the total 120 to 130 for the ILEC operations and also if you can tell us what the

  • total U.S. Cellular for the quarter was.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Let me start. Churn for the all-in 1.8 percent is the number. Per gross ad, I said there were three different

  • things in there, one type, there's no - that's higher than we expected. Underneath that, we've got with one of the

  • lower volume. 2, one the lower volume. 2, we did some more advertising to support some price plans that were rolled out

  • early in the - early in the second quarter. And third, we are starting to invest in the marketing area around a data

  • group that's something we hadn't been doing yet. Where we were TDMA wasn't appropriate yet. Now that we're doing

  • that, that's driving some marketing dollars. All marketing dollars are in cost per gross ad. We're seeing that about

  • 12 bucks in this quarter.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Great: Capex relative to any access is.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • The capex is not included in that original amount.

  • USF all-in from all different sources would be about 22.

  • Operator

  • Next question Todd Rosenbloom from (inaudible).

  • Analyst

  • One, the roaming revenues although they

  • are down year to year, popped up a little bit sequentially. I wonder if that's more a seasonality things or sock is

  • turning although I doubt it. And then exposure to WorldCom, you mentioned the receivable that's out there, I you need

  • about 10 to 12 million, doing what general communication is doing which is writing off some of that as bad debt.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • First question on roaming that is definitely a 00:59:18 seasonal trend. One we've seen year in and year out. Second quarter picks up in terms of total minutes of use 00:59:25 versus the first quarter. 00:59:27 >>ANALYST: Okay. 00:59:28 >>UNKNOWN SPEAKER: I think the issue on WorldCom, it does represent a relatively large access provider for us. Probably the only 00:59:35 solution is either to write it off or not. There's really not much in going part way. We'll watch it at close as we 00:59:44 can. 00:59:46 >>OPERATOR: Your next question comes from David [Paulisano] with Stevens, Inc. 00:59:51 >>ANALYST: Hi, guys. Your all-in churn was 1.8 00:59:56 percent. What do you think it will be going forward once you bring in all the PrimeCo customers, a big percentage of

  • them are prepaid.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • 1, as we look at PrimeCo, on the front end, I don't - I'm not able to give you a number. The reason I'm not is depends

  • on when it comes in and what the mix is. Early on, we will have the prepaid customers that are there. Which already

  • been fade for that are generating revenue, generating margin. And we expect to continue to support them.

  • Going forward, we would expect to support that product line but focus more on traditional wireless

  • offerings so over time that mix will shift. It will shift to a post paid type of business, that's what our plan is.

  • With that shift in postpaid business and the introduction of our level of service to this

  • market we would expect to see their churn rate improve in terms of how it plays through the mix, it's really a matter

  • of a numbers, in terms of the number of customers when we get it based upon where we're at right now, that would be

  • about 10 percent increase in our commercial.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. On the CBGA going forward over the next couple of quarters will we be seeing

  • something similar to the 12 dollars you talked to about earlier.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • I think the $12 is in there but some of the other

  • components of that improve.

  • Analyst

  • 1.9 on TDS. Of the CLEC operations. Can you give us a better feel for the trend in EBITDA going

  • forward when you think it starts trending down significantly toward EBITDA positive?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Our plan would be that TDS Metrocom would be EBITDA

  • positive for the full year. Not in a significant way but it would be EBITDA positive next year and free cash flow

  • positive the year after that.

  • Analyst

  • In '04.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Yes.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Mike Valejo with Legg Mason.

  • Analyst

  • I have a couple of questions. When you're

  • indicating that CBGA is going to show some improvement, can you give us some sort of bracketing on what's going to

  • happen there. The ARPU which obviously was much better helped by inbound roaming. What do you expect to see with

  • those two, if you can give us some numbers that would be a great help to be specific.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • All right. I can't give you specific numbers. As

  • hasn't happened yet. But based upon the expected volume that we're looking at in the second half, I would expect to

  • see cost per gross ad trend down closer to where it was in the first quarter than where it was in the second quarter.

  • With respect to average revenue per customer, you are really talking about two separate components that go

  • into that number. One is the roaming revenue side which really has got nothing to do with or customers backup

  • divided by our customers get this number and our second one is retail.

  • With respect to the retail side of it, based upon what we're seeing in the current environment I would

  • expect to see year-over-year improvements in retail revenue again in the next couple of years.

  • Roaming, I think that we've talked about overall roam that we expected total dollars to be coming

  • down on a year-over-year basis. What we're seeing this quarter, it was down about 5 million dollars on a

  • year-over-year basis, where sequentially, though, you'll get into the seasonality where second and third quarters are

  • your highest roaming traffic period. We should see that seasonal trend continue.

  • Analyst

  • Could we turn over to the ILEC operation

  • and get some sort of sense of what the normalized numbers are. Could you give us a sense of what the EBITDA in the

  • quarter was without course and without the New Hampshire acquisition. I've got line growth, I'm assuming New

  • Hampshire is 19.2 in the quarter and 44.1 for chorus. So it looks to me like I've got 0.3 or 0.4 percent growth which is

  • a little bit different than what you're indicating but maybe my numbers are wrong. I'd like a sense as far as line

  • growth goes. If you have any sort of sense of what kind of substitution there is in the wire line operation for

  • wireless or broadband or whatever it happens to be. Thanks.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Sure. We added in the quarter, MCT represented about 19,200 equivalent lines. Represented 18,800 traditional

  • lines. The growth ends up being for the quarter about 2,000 on an internal growth basis which that is it 8/10th of one

  • percent comes in. From a margin perspective, if you strip out the impacts of Chorus and strip out the impacts of MCT,

  • growth in EBITDA and revenues the margin stayed at exactly the same at 50.3 percent. It grew about 3.7 percent,

  • something like that.

  • Analyst

  • What was growing 3.7 percent?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Revenues and cash flow, he can including the effect of those acquisitions.

  • Operator

  • Your next question Greg (inaudible) from Loop

  • Capital Markets.

  • Analyst

  • Most of my questions have been answered. Are you guys on the CLEC side using uni for anything, you're

  • primarily facilities base but is there any uni -

  • Unknown Speaker

  • At TDS Metrocom we're 100 percent switch. We do lease unbundled loops for our access to our customer and some

  • small business customers but you're talking about a Uni model. Right. We do lease the line.

  • Analyst

  • That's the from -

  • Unknown Speaker

  • That's from SBT America tech.

  • Analyst

  • That is that plan to do that at all, lowering

  • charges?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Not really. The uni rates are negotiated with the carrier. All that factors into the general pricing but I

  • don't think there's anything on the horizon. I think, though, that there is more discussion in the industry about

  • UNIs which is renting or switching the whole element. We do some of that is US Link and then over time we migrate those

  • to a facilities bank. But that is a much smaller component.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Glen Waldorf

  • with UBS Warburg.

  • Analyst

  • One additional question for Dave following up. Are you seeing any substitution at the ILEC level in

  • terms of technology or any other forces there.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Yeah. It's difficult to put your finger directly on it. Certainly we know that customers our own customers who

  • take DSL oftentimes that a substitution in terms of a second line, we know that's the case. We know that in some cases,

  • especially in some the more remote and vacation type areas, wireless certainly is a substitution in many cases, not

  • probably the worst thing that can happen to us. But awfully hard to predict where it is.

  • At the same time, I would say that our more rural focus does have little different thing. We don't have

  • the large apartment complexes, things like that. The more transient younger work force type that typically are more

  • committed on the cellular side. It's a little different composition of our customers.

  • Analyst

  • Can you quantify for us what the second

  • line penetration is?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • They're running about 13.3 right now.

  • Analyst

  • Which is consistent. Just can you also touch on how your marketing features to your base. You've

  • had some good penetration long dance. Can you give us some color on that how much is organic versus acquired long

  • distance ads.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • We've continued to be successful in putting in long distance customers. Some of that is our good marketing,

  • some the of it is some the tactics that some of the other LD providers are doing to our customers and they become

  • frustrated. We've done the traditional consumer type stuff. Billboards and there's and that type of stuff.

  • We do offer a promotion that if a customer does indeed take our internet service and long distance

  • product we give them a discount on their internet servicing and that helps to tie customers together. Features tends to

  • be something once customers understand how they can use them and make them part of their life, they're real receptive to

  • it.

  • Analyst

  • Great a higher level question for sandy. Just in terms of what is happening in DeutchTel, do you have

  • any insight in what is going on there. What do you think about monetizing that stake, how long will it take the stock

  • to go back up to a level where you consider monetization?

  • Sandy Helton - Executive VP

  • Glen, I'm afraid I'm just like you reading the papers about what is going on in Germany right now. I

  • don't have added insight with regard to the current topics of discussion. And what we do is every as I mentioned we do

  • continue to look at what we think the expected appreciation in the stock is, and other investment opportunities. And we

  • look at that on an ongoing basis.

  • Analyst

  • Well, thanks very much. Good quarter.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Colette Fleming with UBS Warburg.

  • Analyst

  • Hi. Actually, Mark Carney. A couple

  • housekeeping items. Did you, Ken, did you guys launch any further PCS pops, we calculated about of a million

  • nonoverlapping PCS pops were launched as of last quarter were there any new markets?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • No.

  • Analyst

  • The percentage the handsets you guys sold,

  • I know you said you are starting to sell your own for the purchasing power: Numbers historically have been 55 to 60

  • percent. Did you give the percentage?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • I don't understand the question.

  • Analyst

  • The percentage of the handsets that U.S. Cellular sold typically through your stores is 55 to 60

  • percent. Could you give me the percentage for this quarter?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Are you talking about the channel ads or were you talking about actual handsets going through?

  • Analyst

  • The channel ads, I guess the number - this

  • number we usually track. I think you also mention that the you're also trying to sell more handsets to your retailers.

  • So if you can help me out with each of them.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • In fact, channel ads is the number you used to use. And the channel really haven't changed dramatically in the

  • last quarter. The number there you're looking for now in terms of total equipment sales is one I don't have in front

  • of me that we'll have to dig out.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Great, thanks.

  • Operator

  • Your next question is from Marty [Dropkin] with CSSB.

  • Analyst

  • Hi. I want to dig in a little bit more

  • on the ILEC KLine ads. I realize that you said it's start to trend a little bit better throughout the quarter and you

  • saw an uptick in June. Are you seeing that same kind of steady base or even an increase in the first couple of weeks

  • that you've seen in July. And are you seeing it across any particular customer bases? Is it more residential or

  • business or any particular geographic areas?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • I don't really have any insight in the first three weeks in July, Marty. I think there is certainly some

  • impact in the ILEC business. Certainly one the tools we have relative to collection is disconnect. I think in

  • tougher economic times a customer will live with that disconnects for a long period of time. Customers start

  • recovering and start getting their phones reactivated that things are coming back from an economic perspective.

  • Analyst

  • You have seen customers turn off, turn

  • it back on?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Yeah. Businesses that contract or expand a little bit. We are primarily a residential focus. 70 percent of

  • our focus is residential. There's no one particular area or geography or demographic segment that is any different than

  • any other.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. On your capex forecast, slight, but you've raised your ILEC a little bit. Along those

  • lines, 70 million dollars for the first 6 months, you're on a trajectory do - far below the number you gave for the

  • quarter. You think there's a chance you fall below that or enough spending in the second half.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • The summer tends to be our higher spend period

  • especially in the second quarter where we take on materials and things like that that are used for the simply

  • construction season. I think there's a little bit of room around the ILEC capex it's relatively broad I realize.

  • There's always a chance we could run a little bits under that.

  • Analyst

  • Could you break the 42 million between

  • ILEC and CLEC?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Sure. For the 42 million we had fourth quarter 25 million related to the ILCA business. About 15.7 related to

  • Metrocom and the rest was US Link.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. On DSL, did you trade any new marketing initiatives on the big increase or any promotional

  • activity?

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Obviously, we continued to do that. Word of mouth helps a lot in terms of it. We've had a very aggressive

  • program where we've captured information about customers who have expressed an interests prior to us launching the

  • product and we were able to work those. It is one that does sell well by word of mouth. Customers are seeing it.

  • We do leverage off of advertising that's done in urban areas, our customers that see the TV spots in their

  • particular market come to us and ask about that particular service. We're running kind of a normal promotions but

  • nothing extreme in terms of significant. We're not giving away motion of service or anything like that.

  • Analyst

  • Nothing different there. Just word of

  • mouth and catching on a little bit.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Yep.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Finally, the 2 million increase in USF, one million was the first quarter, the other million

  • on a recurring basis or just one time.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • No. Recurring. About a million a quarter.

  • Operator

  • Your next question comes from Bill Moore with Hamilton Investment Management.

  • Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. I want to follow up on

  • the financing status for PrimeCo. I know you had sold the Votaphone shares and in process arranged some bank lines I'm

  • trying to find out where we stood in the whole purchase price.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • We have entered into a new bank revolving credit

  • agreement, 250 million dollars. And so if we look at the end of the quarter now, we have most of the 500 million

  • dollar revolving credit agreement the company had in place available plus the additional 250. But our financing plans

  • also had us going to the market for some long-term debt. We are now waiting to let this news get out there and see what

  • the market has available right now. As you know, it's been a relatively ugly market over the last couple of months,

  • especially in the Telecom arena but that's still part of our plans.

  • Analyst

  • The contingency plan is for existing credit

  • facility.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Yeah. Again, we have our existing one as well as the new one. But we would like to see some long-term debt

  • underneath that.

  • Analyst

  • Have you had any discussions in the rating industries? I know there was some much contingencies on the

  • new bank line, and your rates on those lines.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • We talked for the rating agencies, in connection with the original announcement of the deal. And at that point in

  • time they both came out and affirmed.

  • Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • At this time there are no further questions.

  • Unknown Speaker

  • Thanks, everybody, for joining us on the teleconference today. Ken and I will be available later

  • today in our offices. Have a good week.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the conference. You may now disconnect.