美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to U.S. Bancorp's Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Following a review of the results by Andy Cecere, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Terry Dolan, U.S. Bancorp's Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately noon, Eastern Time, through Wednesday, January 24 at 12 midnight, Eastern Time.

歡迎來到 U.S. Bancorp 2017 年第四季度收益電話會議。在總裁兼首席執行官 Andy Cecere 對結果進行審查後；和美國合眾銀行的副董事長兼首席財務官特里多蘭，將有一個正式的問答環節。 （操作員說明）從東部時間今天中午左右開始，到東部時間 1 月 24 日星期三午夜 12 點，此通話將被錄音並可供重播。

I will now turn the conference call over to Jen Thompson of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

我現在將電話會議轉交給美國 Bancorp 投資者關係部的 Jen Thompson。

Thank you, Jamie, and good morning to everyone who has joined our call. Andy Cecere, Terry Dolan and Bill Parker are here with me today to review U.S. Bancorp's fourth quarter results and to answer your questions. Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation during their prepared remarks. A copy of the slide presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com.

謝謝你，傑米，早上好所有加入我們電話會議的人。 Andy Cecere、Terry Dolan 和 Bill Parker 今天和我一起回顧 U.S. Bancorp 的第四季度業績並回答您的問題。安迪和特里將在準備好的發言中參考幻燈片演示。幻燈片演示文稿的副本以及我們的收益發布和補充分析師時間表可在我們的網站 usbank.com 上找到。

I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on Page 2 of today's presentation, in our press release and in our Form 10-K and subsequent reports on file with the SEC.

我想提醒您，在今天的電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述都存在風險和不確定性。可能會實質性改變我們當前前瞻性假設的因素在今天的演示文稿的第 2 頁、我們的新聞稿和我們的 10-K 表格以及提交給美國證券交易委員會的後續報告中有所描述。

I will now turn the call over to Andy.

我現在將把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, Jen, and good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining our call. We have a lot to talk about this morning, and as usual, we'll take your questions at the conclusion of our prepared remarks.

謝謝，珍，大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。今天早上我們有很多話要談，和往常一樣，我們將在準備好的發言結束時回答你們的問題。

I'll start with Slide 3. In the fourth quarter, we reported earnings per share of $0.97, which included several notable items amounting to $0.09 per share. Let me take a minute to talk about these notable items.

我將從幻燈片 3 開始。在第四季度，我們報告的每股收益為 0.97 美元，其中包括幾個值得注意的項目，每股收益為 0.09 美元。讓我花點時間談談這些值得注意的項目。

The tax reform legislation that was passed a few weeks ago is a very positive development that will provide immediate and ongoing benefit to our employees, customers, communities and our shareholders, as we invest a portion of our tax savings in each of these important constituencies. As a result of the signing of the legislation, the company recognized a onetime fourth quarter benefit related to the revaluation of our tax-related assets and liabilities of $910 million. In connection with this event, we took the opportunity to make a $150 million contribution to our charitable foundation, and we accrued $67 million for a special onetime bonus to certain eligible employees. The impact of these 2 items was approximately $152 million, net of tax.

幾週前通過的稅收改革立法是一個非常積極的發展，它將為我們的員工、客戶、社區和股東帶來直接和持續的利益，因為我們將節稅的一部分投資於這些重要的選區。由於該立法的簽署，公司在第四季度確認了與 9.1 億美元的稅收相關資產和負債重估相關的一次性收益。在這次活動中，我們藉此機會向我們的慈善基金會捐款 1.5 億美元，並且我們累積了 6700 萬美元用於向某些符合條件的員工發放一次性特別獎金。這兩項的影響約為 1.52 億美元（稅後淨額）。

We also recognized an accrual of $608 million for costs associated with legal and regulatory matters and an investigation discussed in previous filings related to our legacy bank secrecy/anti-money laundering compliance program and a legacy banking relationship between U.S. Bank and a former customer's business. U.S. Bank has worked diligently over the past several years to improve and strengthen its AML controls, processes and staff, including increasing compliance staff and making significant investments in systems. U.S. Bank embraces the highest standards of integrity, risk management and compliance, and we remain committed to continually improving our controls and processes across the enterprise to protect all of our stakeholders. The 8-K we filed this morning provides additional information on this topic. Our earnings per share were $0.88, excluding the notable items.

我們還確認了 6.08 億美元的應計費用，用於與法律和監管事務相關的成本，以及在之前的文件中討論的與我們的遺留銀行保密/反洗錢合規計劃以及美國銀行與前客戶業務之間的遺留銀行業務關係相關的調查。在過去的幾年裡，美國銀行一直在努力改進和加強其反洗錢控制、流程和員工，包括增加合規人員和對系統進行大量投資。美國銀行奉行最高的誠信、風險管理和合規標準，我們仍然致力於不斷改進整個企業的控制和流程，以保護我們所有的利益相關者。我們今天早上提交的 8-K 提供了有關此主題的更多信息。我們的每股收益為 0.88 美元，不包括值得注意的項目。

Slide 4 provides highlights of our results. Loan growth was in line with our expectation at 0.8%, credit quality was stable, and our book value increased by 6.9% from a year earlier. We returned 72% of our earnings to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

幻燈片 4 提供了我們結果的亮點。貸款增長 0.8%，符合我們的預期，信貸質量穩定，賬面價值同比增長 6.9%。我們通過股息和股票回購將 72% 的收益返還給股東。

Slide 5 highlights key performance metrics. Our performance, excluding notable items, in the fourth quarter was highlighted by a 13.4% return on average common equity, a 17% return on tangible common equity and a 1.33% return on average assets. We delivered positive operating leverage on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter, and our efficiency ratio, excluding notable items, was 55.3%.

幻燈片 5 重點介紹了關鍵績效指標。我們在第四季度的表現（不包括值得注意的項目）突出顯示為 13.4% 的平均普通股回報率、17% 的有形普通股回報率和 1.33% 的平均資產回報率。我們在第四季度實現了同比正的經營槓桿，我們的效率比率（不包括值得注意的項目）為 55.3%。

Now let me turn the call over to Terry, who'll provide more detail on the quarter as well as forward-looking guidance.

現在讓我把電話轉給特里，他將提供有關本季度的更多細節以及前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Andy, and good morning. If you turn to Slide 6, I'll start with a balance sheet review and follow up with a discussion of fourth quarter earnings trends. My remarks will be referencing results, excluding the notable items.

謝謝，安迪，早上好。如果你翻到幻燈片 6，我將從資產負債表審查開始，然後討論第四季度的收益趨勢。我的評論將參考結果，不包括值得注意的項目。

In the fourth quarter, average loans increased by 0.8% on a linked-quarter basis and grew 2.6% from a year ago. Commercial loans increased 1.0% sequentially. We continue to gain market share across our commercial lending businesses. Commitment levels increased in the fourth quarter. However, line utilization rates continue at historical low levels, and paydown activity remained elevated in the quarter as some borrowers tapped on capital markets to fund long-term funding needs. Paydowns also continued to negatively impact our commercial real estate portfolio. We remain prudent in our lending activity in both our construction and commercial mortgage lines, continuing to forego loan opportunities that do not fit our return and risk appetite. Primarily as a result of the paydown activity and our prudent view in lending in commercial real estate in general at this time, average total commercial real estate loans declined by 1.5% in the fourth quarter, which contributed to a 40 basis points drag to our total average loan growth for the quarter.

第四季度平均貸款環比增長 0.8%，同比增長 2.6%。商業貸款環比增長 1.0%。我們繼續在我們的商業貸款業務中獲得市場份額。第四季度的承諾水平有所上升。然而，由於一些借款人利用資本市場為長期融資需求提供資金，線路利用率繼續處於歷史低位，本季度還款活動仍然高漲。還款也繼續對我們的商業房地產投資組合產生負面影響。我們在建築和商業抵押貸款額度的貸款活動中保持謹慎，繼續放棄不符合我們回報和風險偏好的貸款機會。主要是由於償還活動和我們目前對商業房地產貸款的審慎看法，第四季度平均商業房地產貸款總額下降了 1.5%，這對我們的貸款總額造成了 40 個基點的拖累本季度的平均貸款增長。

Retail loan growth of 1.9% was supported by strong growth in installment loans and retail leasing. During the quarter, credit card loans increased 1.4% sequentially, partly reflecting seasonality, and mortgage loans increased 1.0%.

分期貸款和零售租賃的強勁增長支持零售貸款增長 1.9%。本季度，信用卡貸款環比增長 1.4%，部分反映季節性，抵押貸款增長 1.0%。

Turning to Slide 7. Average total deposits increased 1.2% on a linked-quarter basis and 3.0% year-over-year. Compared with the third quarter, noninterest-bearing deposits increased slightly, and saving deposits grew 1.4%, reflecting growth in Consumer and Business Banking and Wealth Management and Investment Services.

轉到幻燈片 7。平均總存款環比增長 1.2%，同比增長 3.0%。與第三季度相比，無息存款略有增加，儲蓄存款增長 1.4%，反映了消費者和商業銀行業務以及財富管理和投資服務的增長。

Our interest-bearing deposit betas continue to perform consistently with past experience. We expect the total interest-bearing deposit beta, following the most recent rate hike, will end up between about 30% to 35%. If future rate hikes occur, we continue to expect our deposit beta will gradually trend toward a 50% level. However, the pace toward that level continues to be somewhat slower than we initially anticipated, primarily due to lower-than-expected betas in our consumer deposits.

我們的計息存款貝塔係數繼續與過去的經驗保持一致。我們預計，在最近一次加息之後，總計息存款貝塔值最終將在 30% 至 35% 之間。如果未來加息，我們繼續預計我們的存款貝塔值將逐漸趨向於 50% 的水平。然而，達到這一水平的步伐仍然比我們最初預期的要慢一些，這主要是由於我們的消費者存款貝塔係數低於預期。

On Slide 8, you can see that credit quality was relatively stable compared with the third quarter. Net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans declined 1 basis point on both a linked-quarter basis and year-over-year. Nonperforming assets declined by 4.0% on a linked-quarter basis and were 25% lower than a year ago.

在幻燈片 8 中，您可以看到與第三季度相比，信貸質量相對穩定。淨註銷占平均貸款的百分比在環比和同比下降了 1 個基點。不良資產環比下降 4.0%，比一年前下降 25%。

I will now move on to earnings results. Slide 9 provides highlights of fourth quarter results versus comparable periods. Record fourth quarter net revenue of $5.6 billion was up 0.5% compared with the third quarter and up 3.7% versus the fourth quarter of 2016.

我現在將繼續討論收益結果。幻燈片 9 提供了第四季度業績與可比期間的亮點。創紀錄的第四季度淨收入為 56 億美元，與第三季度相比增長 0.5%，與 2016 年第四季度相比增長 3.7%。

On Slide 10, net interest income on a fully taxable-equivalent basis was $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, up modestly compared with the third quarter and up 6.4% year-over-year. Linked-quarter and year-over-year growth were both supported by growth in loans and higher loan yields. In the fourth quarter, the net interest margin decreased 2 basis points to 3.08%, as expected. Excluding interest recoveries that contributed approximately 2 basis points to the third quarter margin, the net interest margin would have been unchanged.

在幻燈片 10 中，第四季度按完全應稅等值計算的淨利息收入為 32 億美元，與第三季度相比略有增長，同比增長 6.4%。環比增長和同比增長都受到貸款增長和更高貸款收益率的支持。四季度淨息差下降2個基點至3.08%，符合預期。不包括為第三季度利潤率貢獻約 2 個基點的利息回收，淨利息收益率將保持不變。

Slide 11 highlights trends in noninterest income, which increased by 0.8% on a linked-quarter basis and 0.4% year-over-year. On a year-over-year basis, corporate payment systems grew -- revenue grew 10.5%, and credit and debit card revenue grew 5.4%, both driven by higher sales volumes. Trust and investment management fees increased 7.1%, mainly due to favorable market conditions and net asset and account growth. Somewhat offsetting this strong fee performance was a 15.8% decrease in mortgage banking revenue, driven by lower refinancing activity, which impacted production margins for the industry as well as slightly lower merchant revenue. In line with our previous guidance, merchant processing revenue declined 1% from a year earlier, mainly due to the exiting of certain joint ventures in the second quarter of 2017 and the impact of weather events that occurred late in the third quarter of 2017.

幻燈片 11 突出顯示了非利息收入的趨勢，非利息收入環比增長 0.8%，同比增長 0.4%。與去年同期相比，企業支付系統增長——收入增長 10.5%，信用卡和借記卡收入增長 5.4%，兩者均受銷量增加的推動。信託和投資管理費增長 7.1%，主要是由於有利的市場條件以及淨資產和賬戶增長。在一定程度上抵消了這種強勁的費用表現，抵押銀行收入下降了 15.8%，這是由於再融資活動減少，這影響了該行業的生產利潤率，同時商家收入也略有下降。與我們之前的指引一致，商戶處理收入同比下降 1%，這主要是由於 2017 年第二季度某些合資企業的退出以及 2017 年第三季度末發生的天氣事件的影響。

Turning to Slide 12. Noninterest expense increased 2.5% compared with the third quarter of 2017. The increase in expenses was primarily due to seasonally higher costs related to investments in tax-advantaged product -- projects. On a year-over-year basis, expenses grew by 3.6%, reflecting higher compensation and employee benefits expense, mainly related to hiring to support business growth and compliance programs. Regulatory and compliance expense growth has slowed in recent quarters and continues to moderate toward the company's overall expense rate. It's worth noting that in the fourth quarter, professional services expense decreased 27% versus a year ago, reflecting fewer consulting services as compliance programs near maturity.

轉到幻燈片 12。與 2017 年第三季度相比，非利息費用增加了 2.5%。費用增加的主要原因是與稅收優惠產品項目投資相關的季節性成本上升。與去年同期相比，費用增長了 3.6%，反映出更高的薪酬和員工福利費用，主要與支持業務增長和合規計劃的招聘有關。監管和合規費用增長在最近幾個季度有所放緩，並繼續向公司的整體費用率靠攏。值得注意的是，在第四季度，專業服務費用比一年前下降了 27%，這反映出隨著合規計劃接近成熟，諮詢服務減少了。

Slide 13 highlights our capital position. At December 31, our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio, estimated using the Basel III standardized approach as if fully implemented, was 9.1%. This compares to our capital target of 8.5%.

幻燈片 13 突出了我們的資本狀況。截至 12 月 31 日，我們使用巴塞爾協議 III 標準法估算的普通股一級資本比率為 9.1%，如同已完全實施一樣。相比之下，我們的資本目標為 8.5%。

I'll now provide some forward-looking guidance. Let me start with a discussion of how our earnings will be positively impacted by tax reform on a go-forward basis. Our effective rate in 2018 is expected to be approximately 16% for federal tax purposes plus 3% to 4% for state taxes or approximately 9% (sic) [19%] in total. We expect our taxable-equivalent tax rates to decline to about 21.5%. This compares with our taxable-equivalent tax rate, excluding notable items, of about 29.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Consistent with our capital management policies, we plan to reinvest approximately 25% of the tax benefit we expect to realize in business growth initiatives, including technology, innovation and business automation as well, as in our employees. Inclusive of these accelerated investments, we expect to deliver positive operating leverage for the full year of 2018.

我現在將提供一些前瞻性指導。讓我首先討論我們的收入將如何在前進的基礎上受到稅制改革的積極影響。我們 2018 年的實際稅率預計約為 16%（聯邦稅）加上 3% 至 4%（州稅）或總計約 9%（原文如此）[19%]。我們預計我們的應稅等值稅率將下降至 21.5% 左右。相比之下，我們 2017 年第四季度的應稅等值稅率（不包括值得注意的項目）約為 29.8%。根據我們的資本管理政策，我們計劃將預計在業務增長中實現的稅收優惠的約 25% 再投資舉措，包括技術、創新和業務自動化，以及我們的員工。包括這些加速投資在內，我們預計將在 2018 年全年實現積極的經營槓桿。

Now let me shift to first quarter 2018 guidance. We expect net interest income to increase at a mid-single-digit pace on a year-over-year basis. Due to the impact of day count, we expect net interest income to be modestly lower on a linked-quarter basis, as is typically the case in the first quarter. We expect fee income to increase at a low single-digit pace on a year-over-year basis. On a linked-quarter basis, fee income is typically lower in the first quarter due to seasonally lower credit card and merchant processing sales volumes and seasonally lower deposit service charges. We expect expense growth on a year-over-year basis to be in the mid-single-digit range. On a linked-quarter basis, noninterest expense is typically seasonally higher in the first quarter due to higher compensation costs, reflecting the timing of merit increases, employee benefits, employee incentive programs and marketing activities. This is somewhat offset by seasonally lower tax credit amortization and professional service costs. We expect noninterest expense to increase slightly on a linked-quarter basis. We expect credit quality to be -- remain relatively stable compared to the fourth quarter.

現在讓我轉向 2018 年第一季度的指導。我們預計淨利息收入將以中個位數的速度同比增長。由於天數的影響，我們預計淨利息收入環比將小幅下降，這在第一季度通常是這樣。我們預計手續費收入將以低個位數的速度同比增長。在環比基礎上，由於信用卡和商戶處理銷售量季節性下降以及存款服務費用季節性下降，第一季度的手續費收入通常較低。我們預計費用同比增長將處於中等個位數範圍內。在環比基礎上，由於薪酬成本較高，第一季度的非利息支出通常季節性較高，這反映了業績增長、員工福利、員工激勵計劃和營銷活動的時間安排。這在一定程度上被季節性較低的稅收抵免攤銷和專業服務成本所抵消。我們預計非利息費用環比略有增加。我們預計信貸質量與第四季度相比將保持相對穩定。

I'll hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

我會把它交還給安迪，讓他做閉幕詞。

Thanks, Terry. We are now 10 years past what in hindsight was the beginning of the financial crisis. By almost any account, the banking industry has reemerged stronger, safer and more nimble. Today, the economy appears to be on firm footing. The regulatory environment is becoming more supportive of growth, and tax reform will arguably promote job growth, consumer spending and prolong the growth base of this business cycle. Against this backdrop, U.S. Bank is well positioned to win market share in our lending and fee businesses and deliver improving returns on equity, while operating with the same risk discipline that has served us well through many credit environments.

謝謝，特里。事後看來，金融危機的開始已經過去了 10 年。幾乎從任何方面來看，銀行業都重新變得更強大、更安全、更靈活。今天，經濟似乎站穩了腳跟。監管環境越來越有利於增長，稅收改革可以說將促進就業增長、消費者支出並延長本商業周期的增長基礎。在此背景下，美國銀行處於有利地位，可以在我們的貸款和費用業務中贏得市場份額，並提供更高的股本回報率，同時以在許多信貸環境中為我們提供良好服務的相同風險紀律運營。

Delivery of predictable, industry-leading profitability and returns has been a constant over the years. But recently, the pace of improvement in these metrics has been limited by headwinds we have faced, some within our control, some out of our control. However, there is reason to believe that these headwinds are starting to abate. First, expenses have been higher than we consider normalized, primarily due to costs related to addressing our consent order with the OCC. However, the heavy lifting is completed, and we expect compliance and regulatory costs to continue to revert towards our overall expense growth trajectory.

多年來，可預測的、行業領先的盈利能力和回報一直保持不變。但最近，這些指標的改進速度受到我們所面臨的不利因素的限制，有些在我們的控制範圍內，有些在我們的控制之外。然而，有理由相信這些逆風正在開始減弱。首先，費用高於我們認為正常化的費用，這主要是由於與 OCC 處理我們的同意令相關的費用。然而，繁重的工作已經完成，我們預計合規和監管成本將繼續回歸到我們的整體費用增長軌跡。

Fee headwinds are starting to shift in our favor. Mortgage refinance activity, which has been a headwind for the industry, is declining at a diminishing pace, and home sales are continuing to strengthen. Strategic decisions and market challenges depressed our merchant processing revenue in 2017. However, we remain confident that merchant processing revenue will return to a mid-single-digit growth trajectory by the third quarter. And while diminishing headwinds are beneficial, what we are most optimistic about is the potential for investments that we have previously made in our businesses as well as investments we plan to make in the future to increasingly manifest in the form of improving top line revenue growth and profitability.

費用逆風開始轉向對我們有利的方向。抵押貸款再融資活動一直是該行業的不利因素，但正在以越來越慢的速度下降，而房屋銷售繼續走強。戰略決策和市場挑戰抑制了我們 2017 年的商戶處理收入。但是，我們仍然相信商戶處理收入將在第三季度恢復到中個位數增長軌跡。雖然逆風減少是有益的，但我們最樂觀的是，我們之前在業務中進行的投資以及我們計劃在未來進行的投資有可能越來越多地表現為提高收入增長和盈利能力。

Our corporate payments services business is firing on all cylinders heading into 2018. For the first time in many years, both the commercial business sector, which is benefiting from higher T&E spend, and the government sector are showing good momentum. In our Wealth Management and Investment Services businesses, market share gains are being driven by new client growth. In our traditional banking businesses, we are up-tiering our clients in corporate bank and moving up league tables in our capital markets businesses. And on the consumer side, investments over the past several years aimed at enhancing our auto relationships are driving strong market share growth. We are well positioned as one of the few remaining non-captive lessors in the industry and as one of the few financiers to offer both a lending and leasing option to our dealers.

進入 2018 年，我們的企業支付服務業務正全力以赴。多年來，受益於更高 T&E 支出的商業部門和政府部門都顯示出良好勢頭，這是多年來的第一次。在我們的財富管理和投資服務業務中，新客戶的增長推動了市場份額的增長。在我們的傳統銀行業務中，我們正在提升企業銀行客戶的等級，並在我們的資本市場業務中提升排名。在消費者方面，過去幾年旨在加強我們的汽車關係的投資正在推動強勁的市場份額增長。作為業內為數不多的非專屬出租人之一，我們處於有利地位，並且是為我們的經銷商提供貸款和租賃選擇的少數金融機構之一。

It is clear that past investment spending is delivering the intended results, and we expect to reap those benefits for years to come. And now because of tax reform, we have the opportunity to accelerate our investment spending. We will target additional technology and innovation spending on the initiatives aimed at enhancing the customer experience and leveraging our competitive positioning, with a particular focus on payments, digital and mobile banking and B2B capabilities. Technology and innovation are core to our long-term strategy for growth, and we're excited about the opportunity to advance key initiatives that will support both top line revenue and improved operating efficiencies.

很明顯，過去的投資支出正在產生預期的結果，我們希望在未來幾年內獲得這些收益。而現在由於稅制改革，我們有機會加快投資支出。我們將把額外的技術和創新支出用於旨在增強客戶體驗和利用我們的競爭地位的舉措，特別關注支付、數字和移動銀行以及 B2B 功能。技術和創新是我們長期增長戰略的核心，我們很高興有機會推進關鍵計劃，以支持收入和提高運營效率。

To wrap up, I believe that 2018 will prove to be a very good year for U.S. Bank. And by that, I mean for the entirety of what makes us U.S. Bank: our employees, our customers, our communities and, of course, our shareholders.

總而言之，我相信 2018 年對美國銀行來說將是非常好的一年。就此而言，我指的是使我們成為美國銀行的全部因素：我們的員工、我們的客戶、我們的社區，當然還有我們的股東。

That concludes our formal remarks. Terry, Bill and I will now be happy to answer your questions.

我們的正式發言到此結束。特里、比爾和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

It's Amanda Larsen on for Ken. Did you all say that your effective tax rate is going to be 19%? Can you go over that?

阿曼達·拉森代替肯登場。你們都說你們的有效稅率是19%嗎？你能過去嗎？

Yes, 19%. Yes, it was 19%.

是的，19%。是的，它是 19%。

Okay, great. And then the expense outlook, you noted that you're planning on reinvesting approximately 25% of the benefit. And you noted that there would be a expense growth rate in 1Q '18 of mid-single digits. Should we expect that for the full year '18, we're going to move to the mid-single-digit range in lieu of that 3% to 5% you guys had previously discussed?

好的，太好了。然後是費用前景，您注意到您計劃將大約 25% 的收益進行再投資。你注意到 18 年第一季度的費用增長率將達到中個位數。我們是否應該期望在整個 18 年，我們將移動到中等個位數範圍，而不是你們之前討論過的 3% 到 5%？

Yes. When we end up looking at expenses for the full year of 2018, because of the reinvestment that we plan on making, you would expect us to be in that mid-single digits in the high end of that range.

是的。當我們最終查看 2018 年全年的支出時，由於我們計劃進行的再投資，您會期望我們處於該範圍高端的中個位數。

Okay. And then also, can you touch upon fee growth outlook for '18, particularly in deposit service charges area and treasury management? A couple of your competitors have announced some changes to overdraft to make it more customer-friendly. And then on treasury management, just if you are moving that earnings credit rate yet.

好的。然後，您能否談談 18 年的費用增長前景，特別是在存款服務收費領域和資金管理方面？您的幾個競爭對手已宣布對透支進行一些更改，以使其對客戶更加友好。然後在資金管理方面，如果您正在調整收益信貸利率的話。

Yes, yes, and thanks for the question. From a fee standpoint, so if you think about deposit service charges, we made a lot of those types of changes a while back. And so I wouldn't see us making any further changes with respect to kind of our fee structure at this particular point in time. We have seen good growth with respect to deposit service charges, and that is really kind of tied to both deposit balances and then just growth in terms of consumer accounts. In terms of treasury management, treasury management has been a real success story for this -- for us this year. We've seen good core growth in terms of client relationships throughout the year, and we would continue to expect that to have a positive impact going into 2018. As deposit rates do rise, though, we would expect that we would be making some adjustment to the earnings credit rate, and that would dampen it a bit.

是的，是的，謝謝你的提問。從費用的角度來看，如果你考慮存款服務費，我們前段時間做了很多此類更改。因此，我認為我們不會在這個特定時間點對我們的費用結構進行任何進一步的改變。我們已經看到存款服務費的良好增長，這實際上與存款餘額和消費者賬戶的增長有關。在資金管理方面，今年對我們來說，資金管理是一個真正的成功案例。全年我們在客戶關係方面看到了良好的核心增長，我們將繼續預計這將對 2018 年產生積極影響。不過，隨著存款利率上升，我們預計我們會做出一些調整到收益信貸利率，這會稍微抑制它。

And I'd add, Terry, as we think about treasury management, we think about it in combination with corporate payments because they're really 2 parts of the same component. And corporate payments in particular has had a wonderful year, 11% growth both on the government as well as the corporate side. Our Virtual Pay product is growing 22%. And as we think about the future, there's going to be that combination of thinking about treasury management together with corporate payments.

我要補充一點，特里，當我們考慮資金管理時，我們會結合公司支付來考慮它，因為它們實際上是同一組件的兩個部分。尤其是企業支付，這一年表現非常出色，政府和企業方面都實現了 11% 的增長。我們的虛擬支付產品增長了 22%。當我們考慮未來時，將會結合考慮資金管理和公司支付。

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the merchant processing side, Andy, I know you indicated that you're confident in getting back to that mid-single-digit growth rate by third quarter. What are you seeing that's giving you that confidence in the rebound?

在商家處理方面，安迪，我知道你表示你有信心在第三季度恢復到中個位數的增長率。你看到了什麼讓你對反彈充滿信心？

I'll ask Terry to add on, but I think the principal reason is 2 of the impacts this year in this quarter were the weather-related as well as the exit of the joint ventures that we've talked about in the past. The weather-related will diminish greatly in the first quarter and going forward, and we lap the exit of the joint venture starting in the second half of '18.

我會請特里補充，但我認為主要原因是今年本季度的兩個影響是與天氣相關的，以及我們過去談到的合資企業的退出。與天氣相關的因素將在第一季度和未來大大減少，我們將從 18 年下半年開始退出合資企業。

Yes. And then so the impact of those 2 is about 2.5% to 3%. And again, the weather events diminished really pretty significantly in the first quarter and then by the end of the second quarter, as Andy said. But the other thing that we're seeing is that sales volumes in our merchant acquiring business have been particularly strong. We're 4-plus percent in terms of same-store sales, which was good. We saw some nice lift in the fourth quarter. And then our overall sales were about 7.3%, kind of in that ballpark. And that's because we're seeing nice growth in terms of new business. And I -- we believe that, that momentum that we started to create in the merchant acquiring business is going to help us generate that mid-single digits by the end of the -- by the second half of 2018.

是的。然後那兩個的影響大約是 2.5% 到 3%。同樣，正如安迪所說，第一季度和第二季度末的天氣事件確實顯著減少。但我們看到的另一件事是，我們的商家收單業務的銷量特別強勁。我們的同店銷售額增長了 4% 以上，這很好。我們在第四季度看到了一些不錯的提升。然後我們的整體銷售額約為 7.3%，差不多在那個範圍內。那是因為我們在新業務方面看到了良好的增長。而且我 - 我們相信，我們開始在商家收單業務中創造的勢頭將幫助我們在 2018 年下半年年底前產生中個位數。

Okay. All right, that's good. And then on the loan growth side, just want to get a little bit more color in terms of what you're thinking about for 2018. Is it fair to assume still around GDP, GDP plus, so 2% to 3% growth in loans as you look at '18? And on that front, on commercial real estate, just want to get your updated thoughts on when we could see some stabilization and possibly some growth in that line.

好的。好吧，那很好。然後在貸款增長方面，就您對 2018 年的想法而言，只想獲得更多色彩。假設仍圍繞 GDP、GDP 增長，因此貸款增長 2% 至 3% 是否公平？當你看'18？在這方面，在商業房地產方面，只想了解您的最新想法，了解我們何時可以看到該領域的一些穩定和可能的一些增長。

Yes. So let me take it first, and then I'll hand it off to Bill. If you think about loan growth, in the near term, there are certainly going to be impacts of tax reform, and it's a little bit difficult to forecast. But quite honestly, loan growth in the near term is going to be dependent upon the level of paydowns that we see in that sort of activity in the capital markets as corporate customers realign or rebalance kind of their debt structure, the capital structure, if you will. I think your expectation of GDP, kind of in that range or a little plus of that is a good or a reasonable estimate as you think about the full year. But in the near term, it's going to be impacted by some of the things that we see in terms of customer behavior.

是的。所以讓我先拿走，然後我會把它交給比爾。如果你考慮貸款增長，在短期內肯定會有稅制改革的影響，而且有點難以預測。但老實說，短期內的貸款增長將取決於我們在資本市場的那種活動中看到的償還水平，因為企業客戶重新調整或重新平衡他們的債務結構，資本結構，如果你將要。我認為你對 GDP 的預期，在你考慮全年時，在這個範圍內或稍微增加一點是一個很好或合理的估計。但在短期內，它會受到我們在客戶行為方面看到的一些事情的影響。

Yes. And I'll pick up on your question on commercial real estate. The commercial mortgage line, which we've seen decreases for the last several quarters, I think that's a function of the interest rate environment. Once we get through this rate increase, these rate increase environments see more stabilization there, I think we'll be more able to build that book. On the commercial real -- or the construction side, we are seeing some positive growth on our residential construction area. We've been expanding that into the Southeast, and we're hopeful with the tax bill that perhaps multifamily should come back. So we're looking forward to being aggressive in that area in '18.

是的。我會回答你關於商業地產的問題。我們在過去幾個季度看到的商業抵押貸款額度有所下降，我認為這是利率環境的一個函數。一旦我們完成了這次加息，這些加息環境就會更加穩定，我認為我們將更有能力製作那本書。在商業地產或建築方面，我們看到住宅建築面積出現一些積極增長。我們一直在將其擴展到東南部，我們對稅收法案充滿希望，也許多戶家庭應該回來。因此，我們期待在 18 年在該領域積極進取。

Yes. And then, John, maybe the last thing I would just add in terms of loan growth is that in the latter half of 2017 and, I think, with tax reform, we are seeing momentum in terms of consumer spend and consumer activity. And I think that, that bodes well with respect to loan growth on the retail side.

是的。然後，約翰，關於貸款增長，我可能要補充的最後一件事是，在 2017 年下半年，我認為，隨著稅制改革，我們看到了消費者支出和消費者活動方面的勢頭。我認為，這預示著零售方面的貸款增長。

Your next question comes from Scott Siefers with Sandler O'Neill.

你的下一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Sandler O'Neill。

Very quick question just on the mid-single-digit expense growth for '18. Just so I'm clear, can you give maybe the dollar amount off which -- for 2017 off which you're basing the mid-single-digit growth expectation?

關於 18 年中個位數支出增長的非常快速的問題。我很清楚，你能否給出美元金額 - 對於 2017 年，你基於中等個位數增長預期？

Yes. I think if you end up looking at our growth rate this year, it was about -- just a little bit above 5% on a year-over-year basis. And we expected that to continue to improve, excluding kind of the tax reform and some of the reinvestment that we end up making. With that tax reform, that really is kind of what causes us to think we're going to be at the high end of that range or in the mid-single digits.

是的。我認為，如果你最終看一下我們今年的增長率，它大約是 - 同比略高於 5%。我們預計這種情況會繼續改善，不包括稅收改革和我們最終進行的一些再投資。通過稅收改革，這確實是讓我們認為我們將處於該範圍的高端或中等個位數的原因。

And I think, Terry, when we're talking about the base for that, it is off of the numbers excluding notable items, which I think is about $12.1 billion of expense.

我認為，特里，當我們談論它的基礎時，它不在不包括顯著項目的數字中，我認為這大約是 121 億美元的支出。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay, perfect. Yes, that clarifies, and I appreciate it. And then I think you guys said in the prepared remarks that you would expect positive operating leverage, excluding the investments. I guess that implies revenue growth somewhere at or below mid-single digits.

好的，完美。是的，這澄清了，我很感激。然後我想你們在準備好的評論中說過，你會期望積極的經營槓桿，不包括投資。我猜這意味著收入增長處於或低於中等個位數。

No, Scott. We expect positive operating leverage including the investments, including the investments.

不，斯科特。我們預計積極的經營槓桿包括投資，包括投資。

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from Kevin Barker with Piper Jaffray.

你的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Kevin Barker。

Just wanted to get a little more detail on the innovation spending that you're making. And when you think about the range of mid-single-digit growth rates, what -- can you put some parameters around that?

只是想更詳細地了解您正在進行的創新支出。當你考慮中等個位數增長率的範圍時，你能給出一些參數嗎？

Well, our focus is going to be on the things I talked about, which is digital, mobile banking, B2B, brand, continuing our expansion of our customer base and our customer experience and as well as our employees. And we talked about the increase to a $15 minimum wage. But those are all the things we're talking about. And as you think about what we have been doing, our success is really dependent on continuing to innovate and continuing to deliver the very best customer experience. So those are the things we're focused on that, over time, will continue to drive the growth that we've been experiencing. And then, Terry, in that mid-single digits, we're talking around 5% or so in terms of expenses, right?

好吧，我們的重點將放在我談到的事情上，即數字、移動銀行、B2B、品牌，繼續擴大我們的客戶群和我們的客戶體驗以及我們的員工。我們討論了將最低工資提高到 15 美元的問題。但這些都是我們正在談論的事情。當您思考我們一直在做的事情時，我們的成功實際上取決於持續創新和持續提供最佳客戶體驗。所以這些是我們關注的事情，隨著時間的推移，將繼續推動我們一直在經歷的增長。然後，特里，就支出而言，我們談論的是大約 5% 左右的個位數，對嗎？

Yes, that's right.

恩，那就對了。

Okay. And then in regards to the flow-through into 2019, 2020, will you start to return back to your longer-term target of 3% to 5% expense growth rate? Or do you feel like that will continue for the next couple of years?

好的。然後關於到 2019 年、2020 年的流量，你會開始回到 3% 到 5% 的費用增長率的長期目標嗎？或者你覺得這種情況會在接下來的幾年裡持續下去嗎？

Yes. Kevin, maybe let me take that. If you think about incremental investments that you're making, there's kind of an arc, and I think about it over kind of a 2- or 3-year sort of time frame, making the investments today and you start to see the revenue benefit kind of in that second half of the second year and then into the third year. And so when we think about 2018, 2019 and '20, we have to kind of think about that arc, if you will. I do believe that as you get down to the 2020 sort of time horizon, you're going to see that incremental revenue that's going to be impacting the business positively, but the double benefit of that is that with the digital sort of initiatives that we have going on, we also would expect to see efficiencies come from those investments as well, following that sort of time horizon.

是的。凱文，也許讓我接受。如果你考慮你正在進行的增量投資，就會有一種弧線，我會在 2 年或 3 年的時間框架內考慮，今天進行投資，你就會開始看到收入收益有點像在第二年的下半年，然後進入第三年。因此，當我們考慮 2018 年、2019 年和 20 年時，如果您願意的話，我們必須考慮一下那條弧線。我確實相信，當你進入 2020 年的時間範圍時，你會看到增量收入將對業務產生積極影響，但這樣做的雙重好處是，通過我們的數字化舉措隨著時間的推移，我們也希望看到效率也來自這些投資，遵循這樣的時間範圍。

And importantly, Terry, as you said, I mean, we're looking at this from both a revenue and expense perspective, and we're making the additional investments to it to grow the revenue. And simply stated, we're going to manage both sides of that equation to positive operating leverage in '18, '19, '20 and going forward.

重要的是，特里，正如你所說，我的意思是，我們從收入和支出的角度來看待這個問題，我們正在對其進行額外投資以增加收入。簡單地說，我們將在 18 年、19 年、20 年及未來管理該等式的兩邊，以實現積極的運營槓桿。

Your next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

This is actually Ricky from Matt's team. Sorry if I just kind of missed this, but I'm wondering if you could touch a bit on NIM outlook for the year, both with and without additional hikes and sort of the puts and takes there.

這實際上是來自 Matt 團隊的 Ricky。抱歉，如果我只是有點錯過了這一點，但我想知道你是否可以談談今年的 NIM 前景，無論是否有額外的加息和某種看跌期權。

Yes. Kind of given all the moving parts, Ricky, I think one of the things we're going to really focus on is giving guidance with respect to net interest income. And so when we think about net interest income going into next year, we would expect growth pretty similar to what we see this year, fee income growth being a little bit stronger. That net interest income growth is going to be driven by our expectations around loan growth and just a rising rate environment.

是的。考慮到所有的活動部分，Ricky，我認為我們真正要關注的事情之一是就淨利息收入提供指導。因此，當我們考慮明年的淨利息收入時，我們預計增長與今年非常相似，手續費收入增長略強一些。淨利息收入的增長將受到我們對貸款增長的預期以及利率上升環境的推動。

Got it. And then maybe one follow-up. It looks like securities ticked up a bit this quarter. Wondering if you could talk a bit about that and then sort of what the trajectory for the securities book should look like in 2018. Is that going to track your overall balance sheet growth? Or sort of what are you thinking there?

知道了。然後也許是一個後續行動。看起來本季度證券價格略有上漲。想知道你是否可以談談這個，然後談談 2018 年證券賬簿的軌跡應該是什麼樣子。這會跟踪你的整體資產負債表增長嗎？或者你在想什麼？

Yes. The way that we end up managing our investment portfolio is really from a liquidity management standpoint, and that will track very consistently with the growth in average earning assets.

是的。我們最終管理投資組合的方式實際上是從流動性管理的角度出發，這將與平均收益資產的增長保持一致。

Your next question comes from Erika Najarian with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is just on the regulatory backdrop. It seems like there is bipartisan momentum to pass some amendments to Dodd-Frank, and obviously, the Senate version has a dollar threshold of $250 billion. And I'm wondering if you could sort of share some feedback. Does that simply mean if the new threshold for a SIFI is $250 billion, that nothing changes for U.S. Bank? Or does that put you in a different tier in terms of the SIFI rules?

我的第一個問題只是關於監管背景。似乎有兩黨通過多德-弗蘭克法案修正案的勢頭，顯然，參議院版本的美元門檻為 2500 億美元。我想知道你是否可以分享一些反饋。這是否僅僅意味著如果 SIFI 的新門檻是 2500 億美元，那麼美國銀行沒有任何變化？還是這會讓您在 SIFI 規則方面處於不同的等級？

My expectation, Erika, is that we would have limited changes to our -- to the U.S. Bank. As a reminder, we're above $250 billion, but we don't have a SIFI buffer on the capital component. We're already at the capital levels. We have the processes in place for CCAR and stress testing. So I expect limited change or impact to our company.

埃里卡，我的期望是我們對美國銀行的改變有限。提醒一下，我們超過 2500 億美元，但我們在資本部分沒有 SIFI 緩衝。我們已經處於資本水平。我們有 CCAR 和壓力測試的流程。因此，我預計對我們公司的改變或影響有限。

Got it. And just as a follow-up to Ricky's question, could you share, embedded in your positive operating leverage guidance, how many rate hikes you presume for 2018 and also sort of the shape of the curve for 2018?

知道了。作為 Ricky 問題的後續行動，你能否分享一下，在你積極的經營槓桿指導中，你假設 2018 年加息多少次以及 2018 年曲線的形狀？

Yes. So when we're thinking about 2018, we expect that we're going to see rate hikes, probably a couple of rate hikes and then one in December. So we'll see 2 kind of midyear. And then in terms of the yield curve, we kind of established our plan or our forecast kind of based upon where the yield curve was in that mid-December sort of time frame. And as you know, recently, it's steepened a little bit, but I think there's probably going to be movement up and down in terms of where that yield curve is. There's going to be pressure, and I think it's probably going to flatten a bit as rates rise during the year as well.

是的。因此，當我們考慮 2018 年時，我們預計會看到加息，可能會加息幾次，然後在 12 月加息一次。所以我們會看到兩種年中。然後就收益率曲線而言，我們根據收益率曲線在 12 月中旬那種時間框架內的位置，制定了我們的計劃或預測。正如你所知，最近它有點陡峭，但我認為就收益率曲線的位置而言可能會上下波動。將會有壓力，而且我認為隨著年內利率上升，壓力可能會趨於平緩。

Our next question comes from David Long with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Long 和 Raymond James。

Just wanted to get your thoughts on any potential competing away of any of the tax benefits, whether that happens in 2018 or further on down the road.

只是想了解您對任何稅收優惠的潛在競爭的想法，無論是在 2018 年還是在未來發生。

Yes. So this is Terry. I mean, when you think about tax reform, I think the -- how it ends up getting utilized, we talked about the reinvestment. But the competition, in terms of pricing, we obviously live in a pretty dynamic environment. I do think that there is going to be some bleed that will take place because of competitive pricing, but I also expect that that's going to take place over a time. And it's probably going to be a little bit different dependent upon the product and the service in the customer segment that you have. Obviously, we operate in a pretty competitive environment. So ultimately, how much gets competed away will be dependent upon that competition. I would say that if you think about the last 10 years, though, the industry has run at lower return levels because it's been real difficult to price in things like regulatory costs and the costs of capital and liquidity and all sorts of things. And so I do think that, especially for some period of time, the banking industry is going to try to recapture some of that in terms of its returns. And as a result, from a competitive standpoint, I think that'll be a little bit delayed.

是的。所以這是特里。我的意思是，當你考慮稅收改革時，我認為——它最終如何被利用，我們談到了再投資。但是在定價方面的競爭，我們顯然生活在一個非常動態的環境中。我確實認為，由於具有競爭力的價格，將會發生一些流血事件，但我也預計這會隨著時間的推移發生。根據您擁有的客戶群中的產品和服務，它可能會有所不同。顯然，我們在競爭激烈的環境中運作。所以最終，有多少被競爭將取決於那場比賽。我想說的是，如果你想想過去 10 年，這個行業的回報水平一直較低，因為很難對監管成本、資本成本和流動性成本以及各種各樣的事情進行定價。因此，我確實認為，尤其是在一段時間內，銀行業將嘗試通過回報來奪回其中的一部分。因此，從競爭的角度來看，我認為這會有點延遲。

(Operator Instructions) And your next question comes from Brian Klock with KBW.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brian Klock。

So I have a question, I guess, probably for Bill. You're talking about the CRE paydowns, and I noticed that there was a tick-up in charge-offs after being in a net recovery position in the CRE book for a while. So can you talk about that? And I think that the note was just related to enclosed malls that were written down. So can you give us a little bit color on that?

所以我有一個問題，我想，可能是給比爾的。你在談論 CRE 的支付，我注意到在 CRE 賬簿中處於淨恢復位置一段時間後，沖銷有所增加。那你能談談嗎？我認為這張紙條只與寫下來的封閉式購物中心有關。那麼你能給我們一些顏色嗎？

Sure. Yes, well, obviously, at this point in the cycle, you eventually run out of the recoveries. So we're pretty much there on the CRE book. But -- and the enclosed malls, we do have a smaller portfolio of what I'd call small-market enclosed malls, and I think some of those are the harder -- more harder hit with this shift to online. So that's where we saw that. The overall portfolio is about $700 million. But we don't expect that to continue each quarter. We just had a couple of deals this quarter that we had to deal with.

當然。是的，很明顯，在周期的這一點上，你最終會用完恢復。所以我們在 CRE 書上幾乎就在那裡。但是——還有封閉式購物中心，我們確實有一個較小的組合，我稱之為小型市場封閉式購物中心，我認為其中一些更難——隨著向在線的轉變而受到更大的打擊。這就是我們看到的地方。整體投資組合約為7億美元。但我們預計這種情況不會每個季度都持續下去。本季度我們剛剛處理了幾筆交易。

All right, great. That's helpful. And a follow-up question for Andy, I guess, thinking about the legal settlement or the legal accrual that you had in the quarter related to BSA/AML, and I know you guys have spent a lot of money and a lot of effort to remediate that. I guess can you give us an update on where you stand or where you think you stand with that regulatory order?

好吧，太好了。這很有幫助。安迪的後續問題，我想，考慮你們在本季度與 BSA/AML 相關的法律和解或法律應計，我知道你們已經花了很多錢和很多努力來補救那個。我想你能告訴我們你的立場或你認為你對監管命令的立場的最新情況嗎？

Yes. That hasn't changed, Brian. So we completed most of the -- all of the systems integration and process and build as well as the people and process at the end of 2017, and we're now in the sustainability phase of it. And we will continue to be in there for the first half of '18, which is really ensuring that the processes we've put in place are acting and performing as expected.

是的。這沒有改變，布賴恩。所以我們在 2017 年底完成了大部分 - 所有系統集成和流程和構建以及人員和流程，我們現在處於它的可持續性階段。我們將在 18 年上半年繼續在那裡，這確實確保我們實施的流程按預期運行和執行。

Okay. So it's possible, maybe back half of '18, you could be looking or maybe being able to pursue bank acquisitions again. Is that reasonable? Or is that something we should think about for '19?

好的。所以有可能，也許回到 18 年的一半，你可能正在尋找或者能夠再次進行銀行收購。這合理嗎？或者這是我們應該為 19 年考慮的事情嗎？

That's dependent upon the regulators certainly, and we are doing everything on our end to make sure we're performing as well as we can. And as I said, I think we have all the processes and systems and people in place now. It's just a matter of going through it and ensuring that they're working appropriately. I would also remind you that the M&A activity that we've been focused on has been not related to the AML consent order of things like card portfolios, payments and trust activities, and we'll continue to look at those items.

這當然取決於監管機構，我們正在竭盡全力確保我們的表現盡我們所能。正如我所說，我認為我們現在擁有所有流程、系統和人員。這只是一個通過它並確保它們正常工作的問題。我還要提醒您，我們一直關注的併購活動與信用卡組合、支付和信託活動等方面的反洗錢同意令無關，我們將繼續關注這些項目。

There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to the presenters.

目前沒有其他問題。我會把電話轉回給主持人。

Thank you, everyone, for listening to our call. Please contact us if you have any follow-up questions.

謝謝大家聽我們的電話。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫我們。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。