聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings.

問候。

Welcome to Union Pacific's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加聯合太平洋公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製，今天演示的幻燈片可在聯合太平洋的網站上找到。

At this time, it's my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Jim Vena, Chief Executive Officer for Union Pacific.

現在，我很高興介紹您的主持人，聯合太平洋鐵路首席執行官吉姆維納先生。

Thank you, Mr. Vena, you may now begin.

謝謝您，維納先生，現在可以開始了。

Thank you very much, Rob, and good morning, everyone.

非常感謝，羅布，大家早安。

Pleased to have you with us this morning.

很高興您今天早上能和我們在一起。

A little bit of winter in some parts of our company, even lots of snow in the southeast part, but the love the way the operating team has worked through it, and we are way better shape already.

我們公司的部分地區有點冬天的感覺，東南部甚至下了很多雪，但我們喜歡營運團隊應對這些情況的方式，而且我們的狀態已經好多了。

So great recovery by everybody, but a lot of hard work by the men and women of Union Pacific.

每個人都取得了巨大的恢復，這離不開聯合太平洋鐵路公司的男女們的辛勤工作。

Why don't we get started.

我們何不開始呢？

So I'm joined here this morning in Omaha by Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer Hamann; our Executive Vice President in Marketing and Sales, Kenny Rocker; and our Executive Vice President of Operations, Eric Gehringer.

今天早上我在奧馬哈與首席財務官詹妮弗·哈曼 (Jennifer Hamann) 一起參加了此次會議；我們的行銷和銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker；以及我們的營運執行副總裁 Eric Gehringer。

But to dig into 2024, it was a very successful year for the Union Pacific team, and we really finished the year on a high note in the fourth quarter to put up an adjusted 58% operating ratio, removing the impact of the new regional freight person agreement is really excellent work that shows that the team is executing our strategy to lead the industry and safety service and operational excellence.

但深入到2024 年，對於聯合太平洋團隊來說，這是非常成功的一年，我們在第四季度確實以高調結束了這一年，實現了調整後的58% 的營運比率，消除了新的區域貨運的影響個人協議確實是出色的工作，表明團隊正在執行我們的策略，引領產業、安全服務和卓越營運。

Now, why don't we move over to discuss the fourth-quarter results starting on slide 3.

現在，我們何不從投影片 3 開始討論第四季的業績。

This morning, Union Pacific reported 2024 fourth quarter net income of $1.8 billion and earnings per share of $2.91, both 7% improvements.

今天上午，聯合太平洋公司公佈 2024 年第四季淨收入為 18 億美元，每股收益為 2.91 美元，均成長 7%。

Fourth quarter revenue, excluding the impact of fuel surcharge grew 4%.

第四季營收（不包括燃油附加費的影響）成長了4%。

Our ability to generate strong volume growth and core pricing gains more than offset an unfavorable business mix.

我們實現強勁銷售成長和核心價格上漲的能力足以抵消不利的業務組合帶來的不利影響。

Reported expenses year-over-year improved 4%, while lower fuel prices led the way, the team demonstrated strong productivity utilizing 3% fewer employees to move 5% more volume.

報告的費用年增了 4%，同時由於燃料價格下降，團隊表現出了強勁的生產效率，利用減少 3% 的員工實現了增加 5% 的運輸量。

This led to operating income growth of 5% and the operating ratio outcome that I mentioned earlier.

這導致營業收入成長了5%，並實現了我之前提到的營業比率結果。

This is the result of the team's commitment to build a safer, more durable and more efficient network, just a fantastic way to end 2024.

這是團隊致力於建立更安全、更耐用、更有效率的網路的結果，也是結束 2024 年的絕佳方式。

Throughout the year, we built momentum behind our strategy, and you see that in the financial results we delivered.

全年，我們為我們的策略積累了動力，您可以從我們取得的財務表現中看到這一點。

While internally, we've already turned the page to work on further improvements in 2025, we need to pause and celebrate the team's success in 2024.

雖然在內部，我們已經翻開了2025年努力進一步進步的一頁，但我們需要停下來慶祝團隊在2024年的成功。

We set a goal to achieve industry leading results.

我們設定的目標是實現領先業界的成果。

And when the dust settles, I'm confident that's where we'll be.

當塵埃落定時，我相信我們將會到達那裡。

So with that, I'll let the team walk you through the quarter in the year in more detail and then come back for a wrap up before we go to Q&A.

因此，我將讓團隊更詳細地向您介紹今年的一個季度，然後在我們進入問答環節之前進行總結。

We'll start with the fourth quarter and full year financials.

我們將從第四季度和全年財務狀況開始。

Jennifer, it's all yours.

詹妮弗，這都是你的了。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早安。

Let's begin with our fourth quarter income statement on slide 5.

讓我們從投影片 5 上的第四季損益表開始。

Operating revenue of $6.1 billion decreased 1% versus 2023 against strong volume growth, while our fourth quarter freight revenue finished flat at $5.8 billion.

由於運量強勁成長，營業收入為 61 億美元，較 2023 年下降 1%，而第四季的貨運收入持平於 58 億美元。

Breaking down the drivers of freight revenue, increased volume in the quarter added 525 basis points.

分析貨運收入的驅動因素，本季貨運量增加 525 個基點。

Fuel surcharge revenue of $588 million declined $207 million as lower year-over-year fuel prices reduced freight revenue 450 basis points.

燃油附加費收入為 5.88 億美元，年比燃油價格下降導致貨運收入減少 450 個基點，減少了 2.07 億美元。

Similar to our third-quarter results, strong core pricing gains were more than offset by business mix, reducing freight revenue 100 basis points with our 16% intermodal growth driving that mix dynamic.

與我們的第三季業績類似，強勁的核心價格漲幅被業務組合所抵消，導致貨運收入減少 100 個基點，而我們的 16% 的多式聯運增長推動了這一組合動態。

Of significance, our price dollars met the long-term commitment of exceeding inflation dollars while also being accretive to fourth quarter operating ratio.

值得注意的是，我們的價格美元兌現了超過通膨美元的長期承諾，同時也增加了第四季度的營業比率。

Wrapping up the top line, other revenue decreased 7% as a result of lower accessorial revenue from the second quarter intermodal equipment sale and reduced revenue from the ongoing transfer of Metro operations.

總體而言，其他收入下降了 7%，原因是第二季多式聯運設備銷售的附加收入減少，以及地鐵營運持續轉移的收入減少。

As a reminder, we see offsets against this revenue decline in operating expense.

提醒一下，我們看到營業費用抵銷了收入的下降。

Switching to expenses, our appendix slides provide more detail.

談到費用，我們的附錄投影片提供了更多細節。

But let me share some highlights of our strong cost control as total operating expense declined 4% to $3.6 billion against a 5% increase in quarterly volume.

但讓我分享一些我們強大成本控制的亮點，因為總營運費用下降 4％ 至 36 億美元，而季度交易量增加了 5％。

Looking closer at the expense line, Compensation and benefits expense increased 8% compared to fourth quarter 2023, driven by the $40 million brakeperson buyout agreement, which Jim mentioned and wage inflation.

仔細查看費用項目，薪資和福利費用與 2023 年第四季相比增加了 8%，這主要是由於 Jim 提到的 4000 萬美元的煞車人員買斷協議和薪資通膨。

This is the second brakeperson agreement that we have reached in the last couple of years both of which have enabled more efficient car handling.

這是我們在過去幾年中達成的第二份煞車協議，這兩項協議都使得車輛操控更加有效率。

Quarterly workforce levels decreased 3%.

季度勞動力數量下降了 3%。

Our train service employee workforce was flat against the 5% volume growth as we effectively handle the additional volume.

由於我們有效地處理了額外的運量，我們的火車服務員工隊伍與 5% 的運量成長持平。

All other workforce areas decreased 4%.

所有其他勞動力領域都減少了 4%。

These efforts resulted in record workforce productivity, demonstrating our strategic focus on delivering operational excellence.

這些努力帶來了創紀錄的勞動生產力，彰顯了我們對實現卓越營運的策略重點。

For 2025, we expect our all-in cost per employee to be around 4% as we continue to find ways to be more productive with our workforce through process improvements, technology and investment.

到 2025 年，我們預計每位員工的總成本將在 4% 左右，因為我們將繼續透過流程改善、技術和投資來提高員工生產力。

Fuel expense decreased 23% on a 24% year-over-year falloff in fuel prices from $3.16 to $2.41 per gallon.

燃料費用下降了 23%，燃料價格年減 24%，從每加侖 3.16 美元降至 2.41 美元。

Our fuel consumption rate improved 1% in the quarter as we more than offset the impact of moving a less fuel-efficient business mix.

本季我們的燃料消耗率改善了 1%，因為我們抵銷了轉變燃料效率較低的業務組合所帶來的影響。

Equipment and other rents expense increased 8% due to inflation and volume-related growth in our Intermodal business.

由於通貨膨脹和聯運業務量相關的增長，設備和其他租金費用增加了 8%。

Finally, other expense declined 22%.

最後，其他費用下降了22%。

As you'll recall, in the fourth quarter of 2023, we highlighted elevated casualty costs due to the catch-up of case backlogs.

您可能還記得，在 2023 年第四季度，我們強調了由於案件積壓而導致的傷亡成本上升。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, we benefited from lower casualty expenses as well as a reduction in bad debt expense.

2024 年第四季度，我們受惠於意外傷害費用的降低以及壞帳費用的減少。

Operating income improved 5% to $2.5 billion and was a fourth quarter record.

營業收入成長 5% 至 25 億美元，創下第四季的最高紀錄。

Below the line, other income decreased $40 million on lower real estate gains, while interest expense declined 6% or $19 million as a result of lower average debt levels.

總體而言，由於房地產收益降低，其他收入減少了 4,000 萬美元，而由於平均債務水準降低，利息支出下降了 6%，即 1,900 萬美元。

Altogether, these results total a record fourth quarter net income of $1.8 billion and earnings per share of $2.91, both up 7% versus 2023.

總體而言，這些業績總計創下第四季淨收入 18 億美元和每股收益 2.91 美元的紀錄，較 2023 年均成長 7%。

Our fourth quarter operating ratio of 58.7% improved 220 basis points year-over-year.

我們第四季的營業比率為 58.7%，年比提高了 220 個基點。

And as Jim noted, when you adjust for the brakeperson agreement, our quarterly OR came in at 58%, a great outcome reflecting very strong quarterly performance by the UP team as we work to safely and efficiently serve our customers.

正如Jim 所說，當你根據制動員協議進行調整時，我們的季度OR 達到了58%，這是一個很好的結果，反映了UP 團隊在安全高效地為客戶提供服務的過程中非常強勁的季度業績。

Moving to slide 6.

移至幻燈片 6。

Let me quickly recap full year 2024.

讓我快速回顧一下 2024 年全年。

Operating revenue of $24.3 billion grew 1% on a 3% volume increase, core pricing gains, partially offset by lower fuel surcharge revenue and business mix.

營業收入為 243 億美元，成長 1%，其中銷量成長 3%，核心價格上漲，但燃油附加費收入和業務組合下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Excluding fuel surcharge, our freight revenue grew 4% versus 2023.

不包括燃油附加費，我們的貨運收入較 2023 年增長了 4%。

Operating income totaled $9.7 billion, a 7% increase and our full year operating ratio of 59.9%, improved 240 basis points, both great indicators of how good railroading produces solid operating leverage and cost control.

營業收入總計 97 億美元，成長 7%，全年營業率為 59.9%，提高了 240 個基點，這兩項指標都充分錶明良好的鐵路營運能夠產生穩固的營運槓桿和成本控制。

Earnings per share of $11.09 increased 6% versus 2023, while our return on invested capital improved 30 basis points to 15.8%.

每股收益為 11.09 美元，較 2023 年增長 6%，而我們的投資資本回報率提高了 30 個基點，達到 15.8%。

Let's turn then to shareholder returns on the balance sheet on slide 7.

那麼讓我們來看看第 7 頁的資產負債表上的股東回報。

Full year 2024 cash from operations totaled $9.3 billion, up almost $1 billion from 2023.

2024 年全年經營現金總額為 93 億美元，比 2023 年增加近 10 億美元。

Our cash flow conversion rate improved to 87% and free cash flow increased from $1.5 billion to $2.8 billion.

我們的現金流轉換率提高到 87%，自由現金流從 15 億美元增加到 28 億美元。

These year-over-year improvements reflect the change in year-over-year labor agreement payments as well as the growth in our operating income.

這些同比增長反映了勞動協議付款的同比變化以及我們的營業收入的增長。

We rewarded our shareholders, returning $4.7 billion in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases.

我們回報股東，2024年透過股利和股票回購返還47億美元。

Our adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio finished the year at 2.7 times as we maintain a strong balance sheet and continue to be A rated by our three credit agencies. 2024 proves that our strategy of safety, service and operational excellence, leading to growth also generate strong cash returns for our shareholders.

由於我們保持了強勁的資產負債表並繼續獲得三家信用機構的 A 級評級，我們調整後的債務與 EBITDA 比率在年底達到 2.7 倍。 2024年證明，我們的安全、服務和卓越營運策略在帶來成長的同時，也為我們的股東帶來了豐厚的現金回報。

With that, let me turn it over to Kenny.

現在，讓我把話題交給肯尼 (Kenny)。

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning.

謝謝你，詹妮弗，早安。

As Jennifer mentioned, we had a strong fourth quarter.

正如詹妮弗所提到的，我們在第四季表現強勁。

Freight revenues totaled $5.8 billion for the quarter, which was up 4% excluding fuel surcharges due to increased volume.

本季貨運收入總計 58 億美元，由於貨運量增加，扣除燃油附加費後，成長了 4%。

This also reflected strong core pricing gains as a result of our deliberate focus on maximizing price.

這也反映了我們刻意注重最大化價格而導致的核心價格強勁上漲。

Let's jump right in and talk about the key drivers for each of our business groups.

讓我們直接開始討論每個業務組的關鍵驅動因素。

Starting with our bulk segment, revenue for the quarter was down 4% compared to last year, on a 4% decrease in volume, while average revenue per car remained flat even with decreased fuel surcharges.

從散裝運輸部分開始，本季收入與去年相比下降了 4%，因為運輸量下降了 4%，而即使燃油附加費下降，每輛車的平均收入仍然保持穩定。

Coal continued to experience the same challenges seen throughout the year as demand remained soft due to high inventory levels and the competition from low natural gas prices.

由於庫存水準高和天然氣價格低廉的競爭導致需求持續疲軟，煤炭持續面臨全年相同的挑戰。

Grain volumes increased for the quarter as there was strength in export grain to Mexico, coupled with UP service during -- strong UP service during the harvest.

由於對墨西哥的穀物出口強勁，加上收穫期間 UP 服務強勁，本季的穀物產量有所增加。

Lastly, grain products grew in the fourth quarter as our work to locate renewable diesel plants on our railroad, it's paying dividends in the form of increased demand for feedstocks, and we expect that growth to continue with the startup of two new facilities, one in Nebraska and one in Kansas that came online in the fourth quarter, bringing the current count of UP assessable plants to 15, with more expected this year.

最後，第四季度穀物產品銷售成長，因為我們努力在鐵路沿線建立再生柴油工廠，這以原料需求增加的形式帶來了回報，我們預計，隨著兩家新工廠的啟動，這種增長將繼續下去，其中一家位於內布拉斯加州和堪薩斯州的一家發電廠已於第四季度投產，使得 UP 可評估發電廠數量增至 15 家，預計今年將有更多發電廠投產。

Turning to Industrial.

轉向工業。

Revenue was up 1% for the quarter as volume remained flat.

由於銷量保持平穩，本季營收成長了 1%。

Strong core pricing gains were mostly offset by lower fuel surcharges and a negative mix in volume.

核心價格的強勁漲幅大部分被燃油附加費的降低和銷售的負面組合所抵消。

Business development in our petrochemical and petroleum commodity segments drove growth.

我們的石化和石油商品部門的業務發展推動了成長。

Demand improved for plastics -- for our plastics business in both export and domestic markets.

我們的塑膠業務在出口和國內市場對塑膠的需求都有改善。

However, these gains were offset by softer demand for metals, sand and rock.

然而，這些增長被金屬、沙子和岩石需求的疲軟所抵消。

Premium revenue for the quarter was up 3% on a 13% increase in volume and a 9% decrease in average revenue per car, reflecting increased intermodal shipments and lower fuel surcharges.

本季保費收入成長 3%，其中運輸量增加 13%，每輛車平均收入下降 9%，這反映了聯運運輸量的增加和燃油附加費的下降。

Intermodal volumes remained strong due to international West Coast import demand and positive domestic growth driven by business development efforts.

由於西海岸的國際進口需求和業務發展推動的國內成長，多式聯運量保持強勁。

International volumes were up 26% in the quarter, outpacing the growth rate of the West Coast imports by utilizing our buffer resources, which includes people, locomotives and railcars, our operating team efficiently move the traffic and maintain fluidity in the supply chain.

本季國際貨運量成長了26%，超過了西海岸進口的成長率，透過利用我們的緩衝資源（包括人員、機車和火車車廂），我們的營運團隊有效地疏導了交通並保持了供應鏈的流動性。

Automotive volumes were flat due to unplanned downtime, partially offset by business development wins with Volkswagen and General Motors.

由於計劃外的停工，汽車銷量持平，但與大眾和通用汽車的業務發展勝利部分抵消了這一影響。

Now let's focus on 2025.

現在讓我們聚焦在2025年。

Here are some of the key macroeconomic indicators that we're watching this year on slide 10.

第 10 頁是我們今年關注的一些關鍵宏觀經濟指標。

These are S&P Global's forecast from their January report.

這是標準普爾全球在其一月報告中所做的預測。

And you'll notice that it shows a mixed picture for 2025, which is not materially different than what we shared back in September at our Investor Day in Dallas.

您會注意到，它展示了 2025 年的喜憂參半的前景，這與我們 9 月在達拉斯投資者日上分享的前景並沒有實質差異。

The forecast for industrial production shows a slight increase, while GDP growth slows from 2024.

預測工業生產將略有成長，而 GDP 成長將從 2024 年起放緩。

Housing starts are expected to remain challenged, but with December sharp uptick, we are closely watching the situation.

預計住房開工仍將面臨挑戰，但隨著 12 月的大幅上漲，我們正密切關注情況。

Now turning to slide 11, here is Union Pacific's 2025 outlook as we see it today for the key markets we serve.

現在翻到第 11 張幻燈片，這是聯合太平洋公司對我們今天所服務的關鍵市場的 2025 年展望。

Starting with bulk, we anticipate coal to continue to decline, though not to the levels we've seen in 2024.

從散貨量開始，我們預計煤炭需求將繼續下降，但不會達到 2024 年的水準。

We expect coal demand will be met from existing high inventory levels.

我們預計現有的高庫存水準將滿足煤炭需求。

However, a new contract win with the Lower Colorado River Authority, also known as LCRA, will help offset losses from 2025 [coal] retirement.

然而，與科羅拉多河下游管理局（LCRA）簽訂的新合約將有助於抵消2025年煤炭退役造成的損失。

While it's premature to predict grain export demand, domestic demand is expected to remain steady through the first half of 2025, driven by strong grain yields from a good harvest in 2024 as well as our efforts to serve both new and expanding facilities.

雖然現在預測糧食出口需求還為時過早，但預計到 2025 年上半年國內需求將保持穩定，這得益於 2024 年豐收帶來的高糧食產量以及我們為新建和擴建設施提供服務的努力。

Lastly, we expect continued strength in grain products, driven by intense business development and the expanding markets for renewable fuels and the associated feedstocks.

最後，我們預計，受業務強勁發展和再生燃料及相關原料市場不斷擴大的推動，穀物產品將持續保持強勁勢頭。

We will continue to monitor potential changes in renewable depot incentives and tax credits.

我們將繼續監測再生能源倉庫激勵措施和稅收抵免的潛在變化。

Moving on to Industrial.

轉向工業。

While the forecast for industrial production in 2025 remains muted, our diverse business mix, strong service and robust franchise will help us grow in some markets.

雖然對 2025 年工業生產的預測仍然低迷，但我們多元化的業務組合、強大的服務和穩健的特許經營將幫助我們在某些​​市場實現成長。

The metals market is expected to remain soft.

預計金屬市場將保持疲軟。

However, our industrial chemicals and plastics markets will remain favorable based on plant expansions with multiple strategic customers and our strong focus on business development.

然而，由於多個策略客戶的工廠擴建以及我們對業務發展的高度重視，我們的工業化學品和塑膠市場仍將保持有利地位。

This strong focus is all about unleashing what's possible by empowering the commercial team.

這種強烈的關注點在於透過授權商業團隊來釋放一切可能。

They are leveraging our Gulf Coast franchise and strong service to win.

他們正在利用我們的墨西哥灣沿岸特許經營權和強大的服務來贏得勝利。

And wrapping up with premium on the intermodal side, we expect growth in domestic intermodal with over-the-road conversions.

總結聯運方面的溢價，我們預期隨著公路轉換，國內聯運將會成長。

Strong international intermodal volume experienced in 2024 creates tough year-over-year comparison for us.

2024 年國際聯運量將大幅成長，這讓我們難以進行年比對比。

And the mix issue continues as international volumes remain strong at the start of the year.

由於今年年初國際銷售依然強勁，混合問題仍在持續。

Additionally, we are keeping a watchful eye on potential tariff changes that could further impact volumes.

此外，我們正在密切關注可能進一步影響銷售的潛在關稅變化。

Even though we are early in the year, we are seeing automotive OEM curtail production to better manage high inventory.

儘管今年才剛開始，但我們看到汽車原始設備製造商正在削減產量，以更好地管理高庫存。

However, consistent with S&P Global's outlook and our conversations with customers, we expect a positive trend with output increasing as the year progresses.

然而，根據標普全球的展望以及我們與客戶的對話，我們預計隨著時間的推移，產量將呈現積極的趨勢。

Overall, we anticipate a soft economic environment and face difficult comps in 2025, but I'm excited about onboarding LCRA, the new coal customer mentioned earlier, and I'm encouraged by the incremental volume we will gain from new and expanding facilities across multiple business segments.

總體而言，我們預計2025 年經濟環境將較為疲軟，同比增速也將面臨困難，但我對之前提到的新煤炭客戶LCRA 的加入感到興奮，而且我對我們將從多個新建和擴建設施中獲得的增量感到鼓舞業務部門。

In fact, we currently have over 200 track construction projects in progress with a potential revenue of $1.5 billion, and our business development pipeline is just as strong as it was this time last year.

事實上，我們目前正在進行的軌道建設項目超過 200 個，潛在收入達 15 億美元，而且我們的業務發展管道與去年同期一樣強勁。

We continue to invest in intermodal, which Eric will touch on.

我們將繼續投資多式聯運，Eric 將會談到這一點。

You heard me discuss new unit train facilities added to our network, and we are bullish on industrial development projects in the Gulf Coast, with a mix of large and small customers.

您聽到我討論了在我們的網路中增加新的單元列車設施，我們對墨西哥灣沿岸的工業發展項目持樂觀態度，其中包括大大小小的客戶。

I'm proud of the commercial team.

我為商業團隊感到驕傲。

They continue to hustle, and we will maintain our strong pricing posture in 2025.

他們繼續努力，我們將在 2025 年保持強勁的定價態勢。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

接下來，我將把任務交給 Eric 來檢視我們的營運績效。

Thank you, Kenny, and good morning.

謝謝你，肯尼，早安。

Moving to slide 13.

移至幻燈片 13。

Before diving into our results, I want to express my appreciation to the team for their hard work.

在深入討論我們的成果之前，我想對團隊的辛勤工作表示感謝。

Historically, vast surges in volumes, such as those we witnessed in 2024, significantly disrupt rail operations.

從歷史上看，貨運量大幅增加（例如我們在 2024 年目睹的）會嚴重擾亂鐵路運營。

However, the team bucked that trend and was able to improve our service product, while also driving growth and network efficiency.

然而，該團隊扭轉了這一趨勢，並能夠改進我們的服務產品，同時推動成長和網路效率。

It's proof our relentless focus on operational excellence is working, and I'm excited we are carrying that momentum into 2025.

這證明我們對卓越營運的不懈關注正在發揮作用，我很高興我們能將這種勢頭延續到 2025 年。

Safety also improved in 2024 and continues to be at the forefront of everything we do.

2024 年，安全性也得到了提升，並且繼續成為我們一切工作的首要任務。

For the year, both our derailment and personal injury rates improved significantly, a strong step towards becoming the safest railroad.

今年，我們的脫軌率和人身傷害率均有顯著改善，為成為最安全鐵路邁出了重要一步。

We remain committed as well to enhancing safety as we strive to send every employee home safe each day.

我們始終致力於提升安全性，並努力讓每位員工每天都安全回家。

Moving to our results this quarter.

轉向我們本季的業績。

Freight car velocity improved 1% versus last year, a favorable business mix, coupled with continued improvements in terminal dwell drove the performance.

貨車速度較去年同期提高了 1%，良好的業務組合加上終端停留時間的持續改善推動了業績的發揮。

Notably, 2024 marked an all-time record for terminal dwell, a meaningful improvement in our service, which reduces customers' fleet costs through improved cycle times.

值得注意的是，2024 年創下了終端停留時間的歷史新高，這對我們的服務來說是一個有意義的改進，透過縮短週期時間來降低客戶的機隊成本。

Exceptional work by the team is they continue our focus on the fundamentals to drive terminal fluidity and capacity for future growth.

團隊的出色工作使他們繼續專注於推動終端流動性和未來成長能力的基本面。

On the service front.

在服務方面。

Our intermodal service performance index declined 7 points year-over-year, while manifest improved 5 points.

我們的多式聯運服務績效指數較去年同期下降了 7 個點，而艙單則提高了 5 個點。

Intermodal SPI specifically improved month-by-month through the quarter as December ended with our second highest level of the year at 97%.

整個季度，多式聯運 SPI 逐月改善，12 月達到了年內第二高水準 97%。

The team continued to deploy buffer resources and adjust trip plans to minimize the impact of the quarter's 26% surge in international intermodal shipments.

該團隊持續部署緩衝資源，調整行程計劃，以盡量減輕本季國際聯運貨運量激增26%的影響。

Now let's review our key efficiency metrics on slide 14.

現在讓我們回顧一下投影片 14 上的關鍵效率指標。

Our full year locomotive productivity metric improved 5% versus 2023, while the deployment of buffer resources to handle higher volume levels drove a 3% decline in our fourth quarter results.

我們的全年機車生產力指標較 2023 年提高了 5%，而為處理更高產量而部署的緩衝資源導致我們第四季度的業績下降了 3%。

Workforce productivity, which includes all employees, improved 6% in both the fourth quarter and full year versus 2023.

與 2023 年相比，包括所有員工在內的勞動力生產力在第四季度和全年均提高了 6%。

Further, 2024 marked a fourth quarter and full year record for workforce productivity.

此外，2024 年是勞動力生產力第四季和全年的最高紀錄。

We continue to remove unneeded work and automate operations while improving the safety of how we work.

我們將繼續消除不必要的工作，實現營運自動化，同時提高工作安全性。

Train length improved 1% versus 2023, marking our sixth consecutive quarter year-over-year improvement.

與 2023 年相比，列車長度增加了 1%，這是我們連續第六個季度實現同比增長。

All in, 2024 set an all-time record for train length.

總而言之，2024年創下了列車長度的歷史最高紀錄。

We have made great strides in this area.

我們在這領域已經取得了長足進步。

However, there are still opportunities to adjust the transportation plan and leverage targeted investments as we push to generate mainline capacity in the pursuit of growth.

然而，在我們努力提高幹線運力以追求成長的同時，仍有機會調整運輸計劃並利用有針對性的投資。

To wrap up, let's review our capital outlook for 2025 on slide 15.

最後，讓我們回顧一下第 15 張投影片上的 2025 年資本展望。

In 2024, we invested approximately $3.4 billion across the railroad as we continue to reduce capital intensity while still delivering value to our shareholders.

2024 年，我們在鐵路領域投資了約 34 億美元，我們將繼續降低資本強度，同時仍為股東創造價值。

In 2025, we are targeting capital spending of roughly $3.4 billion, flat versus last year.

2025 年，我們的目標是資本支出約為 34 億美元，與去年持平。

As always, our first capital dollars will support safe and productive operations as we invest in our infrastructure, and renew older assets.

像往常一樣，我們的第一筆資本將在我們投資基礎設施和更新舊資產時支持安全和高效的營運。

This includes modernizing our locomotive fleet and acquiring freight cars to support replacement and growth opportunities.

這包括對我們的機車車隊進行現代化改造以及購買置貨車以支持更換和成長機會。

Also, we will continue to invest in capacity projects that support our growth initiatives while enhancing productivity.

此外，我們將繼續投資產能項目，以支持我們的成長計劃並提高生產力。

This includes siding construction and extension projects such as those in the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest along our Sunset route.

這包括側線建設和擴建項目，例如我們日落路線沿線太平洋西北部和西南地區的項目。

Furthermore, terminal investments supporting our manifest network, such as those in and around our Houston Gulf Coast region, aimed to improve fluidity and increase capacity.

此外，支持我們的艙單網路的碼頭投資（例如休士頓墨西哥灣沿岸地區及其周邊的碼頭投資）旨在提高流動性和增加容量。

On the intermodal side, we will continue to invest for growth in areas like Kansas City, Inland Empire and Lathrop to name a few.

在聯運方面，我們將繼續投資於堪薩斯城、內陸帝國和拉斯羅普等地區的發展。

At the end of the day, it's about ensuring we have the right resources and the right place to support growth and drive efficiencies.

歸根結底，這是為了確保我們擁有正確的資源和正確的地點來支持成長和提高效率。

Wrapping up.

總結。

I'm encouraged by the progress we made in 2024, but our work is not yet done.

我對我們在 2024 年取得的進展感到鼓舞，但我們的工作尚未完成。

Continuing to focus on the fundamentals of railroading and leveraging new innovative technologies, we will further improve our service product and build a more resilient, efficient network in 2025 and beyond.

我們將繼續專注於鐵路的基本面並利用新的創新技術，進一步改進我們的服務產品，並在 2025 年及以後建立更具彈性、更有效率的網路。

So with that, I'll turn it back over to Jennifer to lay out our initial financial thoughts for 2025.

因此，我將把話題轉回給詹妮弗，讓她闡述我們對 2025 年的初步財務想法。

Thanks, Eric.

謝謝，埃里克。

If you turn to slide 17, I do want to start by pointing out that in the appendix, we have a modeling slide that contains several 2025 assumptions that should be helpful in framing our current expectations.

如果您翻到第 17 張投影片，我首先想指出的是，在附錄中，我們有一個建模幻燈片，其中包含幾個 2025 年的假設，這些假設應該有助於製定我們當前的預期。

And as we talk about the year, all of our guidance is within the context of the three-year targets we provided at our Investor Day in September.

當我們談論這一年時，我們所有的指導都是在我們九月份投資者日提供的三年目標的背景下的。

Our team understands those commitments, we are focused on achieving them and our 2025 performance is the first step.

我們的團隊了解這些承諾，我們專注於實現這些承諾，而 2025 年的表現是第一步。

As you heard from Kenny, economic indicators for this year are a bit muted and mixed, some growth, some contraction.

正如你從肯尼那裡聽到的，今年的經濟指標有些低迷且好壞參半，有的增長，有的收縮。

Add to that outlook, questions around possible tariffs, interest rates, regulatory changes, et cetera, and our ability to forecast only gets more challenging.

再加上這種前景，圍繞著可能的關稅、利率、監管變化等問題，我們的預測能力只會變得更具挑戰性。

As we see the year ahead, there are positives on the volume front.

展望未來一年，我們在銷售方面仍存在積極跡象。

First, we're starting the year with a bang.

首先，我們要以熱情的氣氛開啟新的一年。

Volume is growing and the network is running well.

業務量不斷成長，網路運作良好。

Mother nature has certainly taken a couple of early shots, and we'll likely fire a couple more, but our resiliency is strong as we focus on meeting our customer commitments.

大自然確實已發出了幾次早期的襲擊，我們可能會發出更多，但我們的韌性很強，因為我們專注於履行對客戶的承諾。

And you heard Kenny talk about how that service product has helped us secure new business for 2025, as well as the continuing pipeline of opportunities that span our entire portfolio.

您聽到肯尼談論了該服務產品如何幫助我們獲得 2025 年的新業務，以及覆蓋我們整個產品組合的持續機會。

We also acknowledge there are some tough spots namely from reduced coal demand and the year-over-year international intermodal comparison will face in the second half of 2025 as today's mix impact turns into a volume challenge.

我們也承認，存在一些困難，例如煤炭需求減少以及 2025 年下半年將面臨同比國際聯運比較，因為當今的組合影響將轉變為數量挑戰。

So while there are puts and takes on the volume side, we are confident that we will continue to drive operational and financial improvement in 2025.

因此，儘管在數量方面存在一些利弊，但我們有信心在 2025 年繼續推動營運和財務改善。

We will achieve that goal by continuing to control the controllables, by generating pricing dollars that are accretive to our operating ratio, gaining further technology, productivity through technology and by empowering every UP employee to drive asset efficiency.

我們將透過繼續控制可控因素、透過產生可增加我們營業比率的定價資金、透過獲得更多技術、透過技術提高生產力以及透過授權每位 UP 員工來提高資產效率來實現這一目標。

We expect the combination of our activities to drive volume, price and productivity will deliver earnings per share growth for the full year that is consistent with attaining our three-year Investor Day CAGR of high single to low double-digit growth.

我們預計，透過推動銷售、價格和生產力的綜合活動，我們將實現全年每股收益的成長，這與我們三年投資者日高個位數至低兩位數的複合年增長率相一致。

Finally, with the capital allocation.

最後，是資本配置。

As you heard from Eric, this year, we plan to invest $3.4 billion back into the railroad.

正如艾瑞克所說，今年我們計劃向鐵路重新投資 34 億美元。

We remain committed to our industry-leading dividend payout ratio of around 45% of earnings, and we plan to return excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases of $4 billion to $4.5 billion during the year.

我們依然致力於維持業界領先的股利支付率，即收益的 45% 左右，並計劃在今年透過 40 億至 45 億美元的股票回購向股東返還多餘的現金。

The team has done an excellent job to position ourselves for whatever environment we face this year.

無論我們今年面臨什麼環境，團隊都已經做好了出色的準備。

We are on target to achieve our long-term goals while maintaining our industry-leading position.

我們的目標是實現我們的長期目標，同時保持行業領先地位。

We are excited for this new year, and we're ready to deliver.

我們對新的一年充滿期待，並已做好準備。

With that, I'll turn it back to Jim.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Jennifer.

謝謝，珍妮佛。

Before we get to your questions, and I'm looking forward to the questions, I'd like to summarize what you've heard.

在回答您的問題之前，我期待著您的提問，我想總結一下您所聽到的內容。

First, you heard from Jennifer in the fourth quarter, we leveraged the network to handle volume growth and drive strong quarterly results.

首先，正如珍妮佛所說，在第四季度，我們利用網路來處理數量成長並推動強勁的季度業績。

Similar to the third quarter, our business mix profile presented a margin headwind.

與第三季類似，我們的業務組合狀況呈現利潤率逆風的態勢。

So it was imperative that we generated strong productivity and pricing to offset that impact, and that's exactly what we did.

因此，我們必須提高生產力和定價來抵消這種影響，而這正是我們所做的。

Kenny gave an overview of fourth quarter volumes and laid out initial thoughts for 2025.

肯尼 (Kenny) 概述了第四季度的銷量並概述了 2025 年的初步想法。

Look, there are a lot of unknowns, but in my 48 years of railroading, I've never entered a year without some economic question mark.

你看，有很多未知數，但在我 48 年的鐵路從業生涯中，每年都會遇到一些經濟問號。

It is what it is.

就是這樣。

As you heard from Kenny, our team will focus on outperforming our markets and generating strong pricing for the value we provide.

正如您從肯尼那裡聽到的，我們的團隊將專注於超越我們的市場並為我們提供的價值創造強有力的定價。

Importantly, I believe our 2024 performance demonstrates that our strategy to operate with a buffer and connect more closely to our customers is paying dividends, both in terms of meeting our customer commitments, and as a direct result, winning new business.

重要的是，我相信我們 2024 年的業績表明，我們的緩衝營運和與客戶更緊密聯繫的策略正在帶來回報，無論是在履行對客戶的承諾方面，還是直接贏得新業務方面。

Eric provided an update on our progress to improve safety, service and operational excellence.

Eric 介紹了我們在提高安全、服務和卓越營運方面取得的進展。

From a safety perspective, we made great strides, but we still have work to do.

從安全角度來看，我們取得了長足的進步，但仍有工作要做。

On the service front, we're showing our customers what's possible while at the same time, driving productivity.

在服務方面，我們向客戶展示了可能性，同時提高了生產力。

What's exciting for me is that I know we're not done.

令我興奮的是，我知道我們還沒完成。

There are more opportunities ahead, and we have a clear line of sight of how we drive further improvements in 2025.

未來還有更多的機遇，我們對如何在 2025 年實現進一步的改進也有了清晰的認識。

Lastly, you heard from Jennifer, our expectations for the upcoming year.

最後，珍妮佛向我們講述了我們對來年的期望。

Key for me is that we're on target to achieve the long-term guidance that we laid out at the Investor Day in September.

對我來說，關鍵是我們正朝著實現九月份投資者日所製定的長期指導目標邁進。

We operate the largest, most complex rail network in North America and with it comes challenges and opportunities.

我們經營著北美最大、最複雜的鐵路網絡，也帶來了挑戰和機會。

The team understands our goal is to deliver what's possible from this franchise.

團隊明白我們的目標是最大限度地發揮這個系列的潛力。

We intend to do that as an industry leader that keeps raising the bar as we drive value for our shareholders.

身為產業領導者，我們打算這樣做，在為股東創造價值的同時不斷提高標準。

Let me finish with one of my favorite quotes from a mentor.

讓我以我最喜歡的一位導師的名言之一來結束。

It's the fundamental (inaudible), do what you say and commit to it and deliver, and that's who we are at Union Pacific.

這是最根本的（聽不清楚），說到做到、信守承諾、兌現承諾，這就是我們聯合太平洋公司的宗旨。

And with that, I'll turn it over back to you, Rob, and let's start the questions.

現在，我將把時間交還給你，羅布，我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I just want to start on the guidance.

我只是想開始提供指導。

The comment consistent with attaining the long-term CAGR.

該評論與實現長期複合年增長率一致。

That seems carefully chosen language.

這似乎是經過精心挑選的語言。

Just so we're all on the same page.

這樣我們就能夠達成共識了。

Like -- does that just mean you expect to be in that high single-digit to low double-digit range on earnings this year?

就像——這是否僅僅意味著您預計今年的收益將處於高個位數到低兩位數的範圍內？

And then I just want to understand also, Jennifer, the pricing starting to become accretive to margin.

然後我也想了解，詹妮弗，定價是否開始對利潤產生增量作用。

Is that -- does that start right away in Q1?

這是——這會在第一季立即開始嗎？

I don't know if there's any sort of Q1 color you want to give us?

我不知道您是否想要給我們任何類型的 Q1 顏色？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So let me start, Scott, with the question of where we are.

那麼，史考特，首先讓我問我們現在在哪裡。

We were clear that we had a three-year, and when we commit, just like I said, from my favorite quote from a mentor early, we committed.

我們很清楚，我們有三年的時間，當我們做出承諾時，就像我說的，我最喜歡的早期導師的名言，我們承諾了。

And you never know exactly what's going to happen this year.

你永遠不知道今年會發生什麼事。

What are tariffs going to do?

關稅將產生什麼影響？

What are the regulatory changes that the administration is going to put in.

政府將要實施哪些監管變化？

But our goal is, just as we showed in 2024 with the 7% increase, that we think that that's where we're going to be.

但我們的目標是，正如我們在 2024 年所展示的 7% 的成長一樣，我們認為這就是我們要達到的目標。

We are going to be high single digit, low double digit.

我們將會達到高個位數，低兩位數。

Now if there's things outside of our control, then we're going to have to work harder.

現在，如果有些事情是我們無法控制的，那麼我們就必須更加努力。

But this is not a change from what we said before, and I would expect that every year we deliver high single digit to low double digits, that's the win for us.

但這與我們之前所說的並沒有什麼不同，我希望每年我們都能取得高個位數到低兩位數的成績，這是我們的勝利。

So that's what we committed to, and that's what we look forward to delivering.

這就是我們的承諾，也是我們期待實現的。

Jennifer, on the accretive piece?

詹妮弗，關於增值部分？

Yeah, Scott.

是的，斯科特。

So just going back for a second.

因此，我們先回顧一下。

So fourth quarter, we were accretive.

因此在第四季度，我們實現了增值。

So we actually, I would say, outperformed ourselves a little bit there because we did not think we would achieve that here in 2024, but we did in the fourth quarter.

因此，我想說，我們實際上在這方面表現得比自己好一些，因為我們不認為我們能在 2024 年實現這一目標，但我們在第四季度做到了。

And so I'm not going to parse out the quarters in 2025, but I don't see us taking a step back, and we're going to be accretive throughout 2025.

因此，我不會分析 2025 年的各個季度，但我認為我們不會退步，而且我們將在 2025 年全年實現成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jon Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬恩‧查佩爾 (Jon Chappell)，Evercore ISI。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Eric, in Jennifer's comments at the start, you noted the record workforce productivity, also said all-in cost per employee of 4% in '25 as you continue to find ways to be more productive.

艾瑞克，在珍妮佛一開始的評論中，你提到了創紀錄的勞動生產力，同時表示 25 年每位員工的總成本為 4%，因為你正在繼續尋找提高生產力的方法。

You've done a lot of volume with a lot less resources.

您使用較少的資源完成了大量的工作。

Is it still a labor productivity?

還是勞動生產力？

Or what are some of the other initiatives you're looking at a '25 to kind of maintain or manage that cost inflation?

或者，您正在考慮採取哪些其他措施來維持或管理成本通膨？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you for the question, Jon.

謝謝你的提問，喬恩。

Let me be clear, there is more opportunity, and we're working to capitalize on that.

讓我明確一點，我們還有更多的機會，我們正在努力利用這些機會。

Let's go back to our Investor Day and kind of level set from that perspective.

讓我們回到投資者日，並從這個角度來設定水平。

First thing I'd said at Investor Day was that we focus on productivity because it puts Kenny and the team in the best position to grow in the markets, and that's still and will always be true.

我在投資者日說的第一件事是，我們注重生產力，因為這將使肯尼和團隊處於在市場上成長的最佳位置，而這現在仍然是、而且永遠都是如此。

The second thing that we focused on was our culture, our mindset here at Union Pacific, which is to be perpetually dissatisfied with ourselves when it comes to productivity, to keep pushing to find additional opportunities.

我們關注的第二件事是聯合太平洋公司的文化和思維模式，在生產力方面永遠對自己不滿意，不斷努力尋找更多的機會。

So specifically, to your question about what are those opportunities, it's going to be some of the same things you've heard in the past and a lot of new things that I'm excited about.

所以具體來說，對於你關於這些機會是什麼的問題，這將是一些你過去聽過的相同的事情，也有很多令我興奮的新事物。

The fundamentals, they always stay true.

基本原則始終是正確的。

Those are the things in the past that we continue to focus on.

這些都是我們繼續關注的過去的事情。

The improvements we made in the fourth quarter regarding our recrew rate.

我們在第四季度對機組人員重新配備率做出了改進。

Even moving that just a single point has a significant productivity driver for us.

即使只是移動一個點，也會對我們產生顯著的生產力推動作用。

The work that we did to reduce our people starts in our yards and [locals], approximately 2% and 4%, respectively, in the fourth quarter.

我們為減少人員所做的工作從第四季度開始在我們的船廠和當地工廠開始實施，分別減少了約 2% 和 4%。

That's about the technology we're putting in the yards and being able to be even more productive with it.

這就是我們在院子裡採用的技術，以及如何利用它來提高生產力。

On the technology front, the work that we do, and have continued to do, and will continue to do, on the automation of our terminals and pushing to reduce dwell.

在技​​術方面，我們正在進行、已經進行並將繼續進行的工作是實現終端自動化並努力減少停留時間。

Then when you get outside of the terminals and the transportation side, you mentioned a couple of them, and the engineering team as they work to continue to automate inspections, maintenance tasks, distribution of materials.

然後，當您走出航站樓和運輸部門時，您提到了其中的幾個，以及工程團隊，他們致力於繼續實現檢查、維護任務和材料分配的自動化。

And then, of course, you have the whole bucket of purchased services, and I see great opportunities in that.

然後，當然，您擁有一整套購買的服務，我看到其中的巨大機會。

And we capitalized on those in 2024, but there's more.

我們在 2024 年充分利用了這些優勢，但還不止於此。

When you start to think about the technology we have to automate some of our vans across the system and when you're using hundreds of thousands of van starts per year, a 10% improvement in that is really meaningful for us.

當你開始考慮我們必須在整個系統中自動化部分貨車的技術時，以及當你每年使用數十萬輛貨車啟動時，10% 的改進對我們來說確實很有意義。

So here's the bottom line.

底線如下。

There's more than 75 initiatives up against how we think about driving productivity across this company.

我們有 75 多項措施來提高整個公司的生產力。

And I really do mean across the company.

我的確是指整個公司。

It's not just operating.

這不僅僅是操作而已。

I'm very confident about our plan in '25, and I'm encouraged that we'll be telling you about those results as we go through '25.

我對我們25年的計劃非常有信心，我很高興我們會在25年向您講述這些結果。

Thanks, Eric.

謝謝，埃里克。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的史蒂芬妮摩爾 (Stephanie Moore)。

Stephanie, perhaps you're on mute.

史蒂芬妮，也許你靜音了。

Your line is live for question.

您的熱線正在接受提問。

Sorry, I was on mute.

抱歉，我把音量調成靜音了。

This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie Moore.

這是喬·哈夫林 (Joe Hafling) 代替斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 表演的。

Thanks for taking our questions and congrats on the results.

感謝您回答我們的問題，並對所取得的成果表示祝賀。

I wanted to talk about, one of the things you've mentioned over the last couple of months has been maybe a reduction in regulatory burden.

我想談一下，過去幾個月您提到的事情之一可能是減少監管負擔。

And maybe consistent with what you talked about on the second question here.

也許與您在這裡談論的第二個問題一致。

What are some sort of specific areas maybe that you've seen additional red tape?

您可能在哪些具體領域看到了額外的繁文縟節？

Or what areas do you think you guys could particularly benefit if there's reduced regulatory burden on you guys in particular?

或者，您認為如果減少監管負擔，您會在哪些方面特別受益？

I know you guys had mentioned a lot of things on the Investor Day, so [any] specific examples, that would be very helpful.

我知道你們在投資者日提到了很多事情，所以任何具體的例子都會非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, I think the largest thing is we've applied for a lot of waivers that would help with the technology that we've implemented to make the railroad more efficient, provide better service to our customers.

嗯，我認為最重要的是我們申請了很多豁免，這將有助於我們實施的技術，使鐵路更有效率，為我們的客戶提供更好的服務。

Those are the things that are out there that we hope with the turning of the page and how regulations are being talked about at the federal level, that we get those improvements will allow us to be able to provide better service and, of course, be more productive.

這些都是我們希望隨著翻開新的一頁以及聯邦層級對監管的討論，我們能夠獲得這些改進，從而能夠提供更好的服務，當然，更有成效。

So those are just to name a few.

這些只是其中的幾個。

And there's a lot of waivers that we've applied for that are being outstanding for years now that we're looking forward to it.

我們申請的許多豁免已經好幾年沒有解決，我們對此充滿期待。

So I could go on here for about 45 minutes on things that regulation-wise, I think would help the industry make us safer provide better service and be more productive.

因此，我可以在這裡花大約 45 分鐘的時間來討論監管方面的問題，我認為這將有助於業界讓我們更安全地提供更好的服務並提高生產力。

But that's a good way to look at it is those waivers that we've applied for over the last number of years.

但這是一個很好的觀察方式，就是看看我們過去幾年申請的豁免。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的布萊恩‧奧森貝克。

Good morning, Brian, how are you this morning?

早安，布萊恩，你今天早上感覺怎麼樣？

Hey.

嘿。

Morning, Jim.

早安，吉姆。

Good morning, team.

早安，各位同事。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

Doing well, thanks.

一切順利，謝謝。

Hope you are as well.

希望你也如此。

I wanted to come back to the -- I guess, there's a second brakeperson rule.

我想回到——我想，還有第二個制動員規則。

So I wanted to hear a little bit more about that because you mentioned there was one earlier.

所以我想多聽一點關於這個的內容，因為你之前提到過有一個。

So thanks for pointing that out.

感謝您指出這一點。

And then also, Jennifer on the comp per employee for the full year, you're still rolling out last year heard storing out some of the predictable work schedules for the engineers.

另外，詹妮弗，關於全年每位員工的薪酬，你還在推出去年聽到的為工程師制定的一些可預測的工作時間表。

As I understand that there's still some negotiation going on with the conductors for something similar.

據我了解，我們仍在與列車員就類似事宜進行談判。

So maybe you can just give us a little context in terms of the other brakerperson agreement, how's different to the first one?

那麼，您能否為我們介紹一下其他制動人協議的背景，它與第一個協議有何不同？

And then how do you see this other two factors or agreements, I guess, for the engineers and conductors rolling out for the rest of this year and what you expect in the numbers there?

那麼，您如何看待另外兩個因素或協議，對於今年剩餘時間的工程師和售票員而言，您對那裡的數字有何期望？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll let Eric talk about the brakeperson agreement and what that really does.

我讓埃里克來談談制動員協議以及它的實際作用。

But just as a reminder, we did one in the second quarter of 2023 and now this one here in the fourth quarter, and we actually have one more region that we're working on there.

但需要提醒的是，我們在 2023 年第二季做過一次，現在在第四季又做了一次，實際上我們還有一個地區正在進行工作。

In terms of the rollout of work-rest, we continue to roll out on the engineer side, and we continue to work with our conductor SMART-TD in terms of coming to an agreement.

在工作休息機制的實施方面，我們將繼續在工程師方面推進，並繼續與我們的列車長 SMART-TD 合作以達成協議。

And that's all really part of the mix as we think about the statement that I made about the all-in 4% comp per employee in 2025.

當我們思考我之前關於 2025 年每位員工全額薪酬為 4% 的聲明時，這實際上都是因素的一部分。

Yeah.

是的。

And Brian, I'll just add to that.

布萊恩，我只想補充一點。

If you think about the -- on the engineer side, there's 28 hubs across Union Pacific and 20 of the 28 already cut over.

如果你考慮一下——從工程師方面來說，聯合太平洋鐵路共有 28 個樞紐，其中 20 個已經切換。

So we're nearly 75% cut over.

因此，我們已完成近 75% 的削減。

Now thinking about the brakeperson, the way to really think about it is you're kind of going to go back in time a little bit.

現在考慮一下煞車員，真正思考這個問題的方式是稍微回顧一下過去。

So go back in the days when you had five people on every single train.

回到過去，那時每列火車上都有五個人。

And that's the context you got to think about this brakeperson deal.

這就是您考慮制動員交易的背景。

As the technology has improved over the last 40 years, including the technology that we're still implementing to this day, you just have less demand for some of those five people, and we've demonstrated that, right?

隨著過去 40 年來技術的進步，包括我們至今仍在實施的技術，對這五個人中的某些人的需求已經減少了，我們已經證明了這一點，對嗎？

At most, the crew today has three.

今天的船員最多只有三人。

That third person is the brake person, and we have that in some parts of our railroad.

第三個人是煞車員，我們鐵路的某些部分有煞車員。

In Jennifer's prepared comments, she referred to it as a regional brakeperson agreement, that's because not every single area of the Union Pacific has it.

在珍妮佛的準備好的評論中，她將其稱為區域制動人員協議，這是因為並非聯合太平洋的每個區域都有該協議。

So this is very similar to the first agreement that we reached in almost every single regard.

因此，這與我們在幾乎所有方面達成的第一項協議非常相似。

And the goal is still the exact same, right.

而且目標還是一樣的，對吧。

It's to utilize who was in those brakeperson positions as conductors and our normal crew base to be able to provide the service that we sold to our customers.

這是為了利用擔任煞車員的人員作為乘務員和我們的正常乘務人員基礎來提供我們向客戶提供的服務。

The only thing I'd like to add is the whole discussion about where we are on implementing with SMART and with the BLET.

我唯一想補充的是有關我們使用 SMART 和 BLET 實施情況的整個討論。

And Eric just said that 20 out of the 28 hubs, we've implemented.

艾瑞克剛才說，28 個樞紐中，我們已經實施了 20 個。

What you always -- Brian, when you do those things is you make sure that you still end up with the same number of starts per week per employee, and that's really important.

布萊恩，當你做這些事情時，你要確保每個員工每週的開始工作次數仍然相同，這一點非常重要。

And I sat down very first few weeks I was here, came back to work, what, 16, 17 months ago.

我到這裡的頭幾個星期就坐下來，然後回來工作，那是 16、17 個月前的事了。

And with the Union leaders -- and they committed that it made sense that that goal had to be there.

和工會領導人一起——他們承諾，實現這一目標是有意義的。

And what we wanted to do was provide that time off and that scheduling, but they also understand because they want us to succeed also is that we have a workforce that works what we expected them to work on a weekly basis.

我們希望提供的是休息時間和日程安排，但他們也理解，因為他們希望我們成功，所以我們擁有一支按照我們預期每週工作的員工隊伍。

And what we found, results so far is we have to work hard to find ways to make sure that the schedules are set up, and we've had a little degradation, but nowhere near as much as some people write about.

而我們發現，到目前為止的結果是，我們必須努力尋找方法來確保時間表的安排，而且我們確實遇到了一些問題，但遠沒有一些人寫的那麼多。

I'm always surprised when people write about those things without the detail.

當人們寫這些事情卻不提供細節時我總是感到驚訝。

But at the end of the day, I'm very comfortable that we have figured out a way to move ahead and do this right so that we don't add incremental cost to the company when we provide and the unions have agreed that it is going to be cost neutral for us or start neutral, wages still went up 4.5%.

但最終，我很放心，我們已經找到了一種方法來繼續前進，並正確地做到這一點，這樣我們在提供服務時就不會增加公司的成本，工會也同意這樣做對我們來說成本是中性的或開始是中性的，工資仍然上漲了4.5%。

So the wages are the wages that we've agreed to.

所以工資就是我們同意的工資。

But that's the way to look at it is that we're very comfortable.

但從這個角度來看，我們感到非常舒服。

And with SMART, we'll get to the right place that's good for our employees.

透過 SMART，我們就能找到對員工最有利的正確位置。

We want our employees to have regular shifts.

我們希望我們的員工能夠定期輪班。

I'm one of the guys who's a CEO in this industry that's actually worked on the ground as a locomotive engineer and conductor, and to have schedules that help you plan your life so that you can balance the demands of working and also everything else, your family and everything else is really important to me.

我是這個行業中少數在實地擔任過機車工程師和列車長的 CEO 之一，我有一套能夠幫助你規劃生活的時間表，這樣你就可以平衡工作和其他一切的需求，你的家人和其他一切對我來說都非常重要。

So we'll come to the right place, but we're also being smart about how we get to it.

因此，我們會到達正確的地方，但我們也會聰明地選擇如何到達那裡。

You can't have a deal that's all one-sided.

你不能達成一項完全單方面的協議。

So I'm looking forward to working with SMART to finalize the deal and working with the BLET to implement the last eight terminals that we have.

因此，我期待與 SMART 合作完成交易，並與 BLET 合作實施我們擁有的最後八個終端。

But I think it's a real positive for both of us and will become -- it will help us to become even more efficient in the long run.

但我認為這對我們雙方都有很大幫助，從長遠來看，這將幫助我們提高效率。

Because people with schedules will not take as much time off as they did before once they get used to what their work schedule is.

因為有日程安排的人一旦習慣了自己的工作時間表，就不會像以前那樣休息那麼多時間了。

So sorry for the long answer, but I just needed to sort of clarify because I know there's some noise out there about what the effect is for us, okay.

很抱歉回答得這麼長，但我只是想澄清一下，因為我知道外面有人在談論這對我們有什麼影響，好吧。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

傑森·塞德爾（Jason Seidl），TD Cowen。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Good morning, Jim and team and nice job with the quarter.

早上好，吉姆和團隊，本季做得很好。

You briefly touched about some of the unknowns that are out there.

您簡要地談到了一些尚不清楚的事項。

There's obviously been a lot of talk about potential tariffs with two of our largest trading partners [Canada] and Mexico.

顯然，我們與兩個最大的貿易夥伴（加拿大和墨西哥）就潛在的關稅進行了大量討論。

Clearly, you guys have a big position in Mexico with your access to the Mexican interchanges as well as a partial ownership of Ferromex.

顯然，你們在墨西哥佔有重要地位，擁有進入墨西哥交換站的權限以及 Ferromex 的部分所有權。

I guess if we do get that tariff on February 1, sort of what are the expectations on volume?

我想，如果我們確實在 2 月 1 日徵收該關稅，那麼對數量的預期會是怎樣的呢？

And then, I guess, what potentially could have an impact if cross-border business with you guys would decline because of that?

那麼，我想，如果你們的跨國業務因此而下降，可能會產生什麼影響？

Listen, let me start and then I'm going to pass it over to Kenny, who knows our markets and what the different business mix would be something happened south of the border.

聽著，讓我先開始，然後我將把它交給肯尼，他了解我們的市場，也了解不同的業務組合，以及邊境以南發生的事情。

Does it give us more business out of origination in the US.

這是否會為我們帶來更多來自美國的業務？

I'll leave that to Kenny.

我將把這個留給肯尼。

But let me talk in general the way I think about this is, I have never -- for all the years I've been railroading and I just bought hate to say that number because I think it's -- I've been railroading longer than most people on this call have been alive.

但讓我總體來說，我的想法是，我從來沒有——這麼多年來我一直在努力，我只是討厭說這個數字，因為我認為——我已經努力了很長時間了此次通話中的大多數人還活著。

But at the end of the day, I have -- there's always something, and this is the way I see it.

但到了最後，我還是認為──總是會有一些東西發生，這就是我的看法。

We have the capability at Union Pacific to react to what anything that's thrown at us.

我們聯合太平洋公司有能力應對任何向我們發起的挑戰。

Good strong balance sheet, real good, focused marketing team, operations that's looking to be more efficient.

強勁的資產負債表，真正優秀、專注的行銷團隊，以及看起來更有效率的營運。

And I look at the entire package.

我查看了整個包裹。

If we get tariffs, but we also get the regulatory changes and we get the tax changes that were talked about by the President, with how depreciation is going to work on capital and how our corporate tax rate works, that could be a lot of positive.

如果我們得到關稅，但我們也得到監管變化，我們得到總統談論的稅收變化，以及折舊如何對資本起作用，以及我們的公司稅率如何運作，這可能會帶來很多積極影響。

Now I don't expect any of that.

現在我不再期待任何這些了。

That's not what we plan.

這並不是我們所計劃的。

We plan for the worst.

我們為最壞的情況做好了打算。

If something really bad happens.

如果真的發生了糟糕的事情。

Make sure that we are in a good position to handle that.

確保我們能夠很好地處理這個問題。

So I think that with the puts and takes of where our business is, we'll deal with it, and we're waiting to see what actually happened.

所以我認為，根據我們業務的現狀，我們會處理這個問題，並等待觀察實際情況。

I'm hoping that it's a negotiating position by the President, and because I don't think anybody, the consumers in the US would love to have increase in prices because of dispute unless there's some strategic reason that the President needs to do that for security of the country.

我希望這是總統的談判立場，因為我認為沒有人，美國的消費者會喜歡因為爭議而漲價，除非總統出於某種戰略原因需要這樣做。

But overall, I'm very comfortable that we're going to be in a good position as we move forward, and we'll just react on how we see things happening.

但總體而言，我非常放心，我們在未來的發展中會處於一個良好的狀態，我們只會根據看到的事情發生而做出反應。

Yeah, Kenny?

是啊，肯尼？

Jim, I'll tell you, you covered a lot.

吉姆，我告訴你，你已經涵蓋了很多內容。

So all I'll say is, and we've seen this before, it's really about being prepared.

所以我要說的是，正如我們以前見過的那樣，這確實關乎做好準備。

And what generally happens is maybe the origin location shifts from Asia to Mexico or Canada, and that commodity is priced in, that tariff is priced in.

通常發生的情況是，原產地可能會從亞洲轉移到墨西哥或加拿大，商品價格和關稅都已計入價格。

But being prepared is the critical thing.

但做好準備才是關鍵。

Eric and his team have demonstrated that, especially in the second half of this year when we saw that happen on the West Coast.

艾瑞克和他的團隊已經證明了這一點，尤其是今年下半年我們在西海岸看到這種情況發生。

Same is true with exports.

出口也同樣如此。

We saw that on the grain side where it may shift from P&W or go to the Gulf or go to Mexico.

我們看到，在穀物方面，它可能會從普惠公司轉移到墨西哥灣或墨西哥。

Regardless, it's all about preparedness.

無論如何，一切都取決於準備。

And I'm telling you, as we're humming along here from an operating and service perspective, I feel good about our posture going and regardless of what happens.

而且我告訴你們，從營運和服務的角度來看，我們在這裡的進展順利，無論發生什麼，我對我們的態勢感到很滿意。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Appreciate the time.

珍惜時間。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Morning.

早晨。

Thanks again, the question.

再次感謝這個問題。

I guess I wanted to maybe pick up on the West Coast and get some perspective about how you think about sort of the shifts.

我想，也許我應該從西海岸了解你是如何看待這種轉變的。

I know international intermodal has got some pretty challenging comps, particularly as you move into the second half of the year.

我知道國際聯運面臨一些相當具有挑戰性的競爭，特別是進入下半年。

But Kenny, any sort of perspective you can give what you're seeing from your customers?

但是肯尼，您能從客戶的角度談談您看到的情況嗎？

Maybe how real time any of those shifts may occur?

這些轉變可能會即時發生嗎？

I know we kind of have a tentative agreement on the East Coast.

我知道我們在東海岸已經達成了一項初步協議。

So potentially, there could be some business moving around a little bit.

因此，有些業務可能會有小幅波動。

And then just maybe in terms of the pricing piece.

然後也許只是就定價而言。

I know we're getting back into sort of accretive pricing.

我知道我們正重新回到某種增值定價的模式。

How do we sort of think about the opportunity in pricing as we move forward over the course of the next year, or maybe longer, in terms of the service recovery in the network ultimately, the inflation that we've seen across the sort of the broader market outside of transportation and maybe what your opportunity is to try to cap into that?

我們如何看待未來一年或更長時間內定價方面的機會，從網路服務恢復的角度來看，最終從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們已經看到了交通運輸之外的更廣闊的市場，也許您可以嘗試進入這個市場的機會是什麼？

Just want to get a sense of maybe how that plays out.

只是想了解事情可能會如何發展。

Yeah.

是的。

Chris, on the international intermodal side, we are seeing some pull ahead taking place and whether it's the hangover from some of the strikes on the East Coast or whether it's just the idea of the tariff, you can see our numbers and they're pretty strong here as we are walking into January.

克里斯，在國際聯運方面，我們看到一些進展，無論是東海岸罷工的影響，還是僅僅是關稅的想法，你都可以看到我們的數據，它們相當不錯一月份即將來臨，形勢一片強勁。

We'll see how that plays out for the rest of the quarter before I can really tell you what will happen.

我們將觀察本季度剩餘時間的情況，然後我才能真正告訴您會發生什麼。

We've got the tough comps, and I've talked about that.

我們面臨著艱難的競爭，我已經談論過這一點。

Those are in the second half.

這些都是下半部。

But sitting here on January 23, the thing is it's premature to go out and make a strong forecast about what will happen there.

但現在是 1 月 23 日，就對那裡將會發生什麼做出有力的預測還為時過早。

Now on this whole thing around pricing.

現在來談談定價這整件事情。

I just want to reiterate what Jennifer said, and we were price accretive in 2024, and we expect to be price accretive in 2025.

我只想重申珍妮佛所說的話，我們的價格在 2024 年上漲，我們預計價格在 2025 年也會上漲。

Eric and the team have really done a great job of providing a strong service product.

Eric 和他的團隊確實為提供強大的服務產品做出了巨大的貢獻。

Our commercial team sells it, and we're providing the service that we've sold to our customers.

我們的商業團隊負責銷售它，並且我們向客戶提供我們所銷售的服務。

I want to hit that hard.

我想用力打它。

We're sharing the investment that we're laying out to support the growth.

我們正在分享我們為支持成長而進行的投資。

Our commercial team is crystal clear on what's acceptable going in from a pricing standpoint based on the service that we've sold.

我們的商業團隊非常清楚，根據我們銷售的服務，從定價的角度來看，什麼是可以接受的。

With that, we're going to take some risk, but it's all about aligning the service we've sold with maximizing price.

因此，我們會承擔一些風險，但這一切都是為了使我們銷售的服務與最高價格保持一致。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維‧尚克 (Ravi Shanker)。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

This is Christyne McGarvey on for Ravi.

這是 Christyne McGarvey 為 Ravi 主持的節目。

Thanks for taking our question.

感謝您回答我們的問題。

Just to circle back to some of the service comments.

只是想回顧一下一些服務評論。

It sounds like you guys have a pretty good confidence going into 2025, but I wanted to touch on kind of what's underpinning that?

聽起來你們對 2025 年非常有信心，但我想談談這種信心的基礎是什麼？

And maybe particularly in the context of perhaps a better environment than you guys are currently thinking about if the volumes do snap back a little bit more aggressively, how you guys feel that kind of capacity is there to meet that without much service disruptions for customers?

也許特別是在比你們目前考慮的更好的環境下，如果交易量確實更積極地回升，你們覺得這種容量如何能夠滿足這一需求，而不會對客戶服務造成太大的中斷？

Well, I love the question that says what happens if we have more business.

好吧，我很喜歡這個問題：如果我們有更多的業務會發生什麼。

I think I like that question.

我想我喜歡這個問題。

That would be a great outcome for all of us.

這對我們所有人來說都是一個很好的結果。

If the US consumer stays strong and grows the demand for us.

如果美國消費者保持強勁並增加對我們的需求。

We operate a railroad that -- and we keep on talking about buffer, and I think we showed it with the large increase in international.

我們經營一條鐵路，我們一直在談論緩衝，我認為我們已經透過國際客運量的大幅成長證明了這一點。

And that's the way we look at it.

這就是我們看待這個問題的方式。

We want to have our assets in place, operating them efficiently, but we carry a buffer, especially the assets that we can't inbound into the company if we need them in a quick manner.

我們希望我們的資產到位並高效運營，但我們也要有一個緩衝，尤其是那些我們在需要時無法快速投入公司的資產。

So locomotives, railcars, we do that.

所以機車、火車車廂，我們都這麼做。

Capacity on the railroad, we operate our railroad with the capacity because we need to recover from events like we just had in the southeast part of our network, we need to have a buffer.

鐵路的運力，我們以運力來運營我們的鐵路，因為我們需要從剛剛發生在我們鐵路網東南部的事件中恢復過來，我們需要有一個緩衝。

So we run with a 20% to 25% buffer on our capacity, rail capacity, because our business goes up and down, customers don't release cars seven days a week.

因此，我們在運能和鐵路運力上預留了20%到25%的緩衝，因為我們的業務有起有落，客戶不會每週七天都發放汽車。

There's a big drop in the weekends.

週末會出現大幅下降。

So we have that buffer.

所以我們有那個緩衝區。

That's the way we look at it.

我們就是這樣看待這個問題的。

Listen, the best thing that could happen is a 10% increase in volume across the board.

聽著，最好的情況就是整體音量增加 10%。

I think we're set up to handle that, and we'd onboard the people to be able to handle that in a very quick manner.

我想我們已經做好了處理這個問題的準備，而且我們會安排人員以非常快速的方式處理這個問題。

So that would be the best problem I would have in 2025.

所以這將是我在 2025 年遇到的最好的問題。

Thank you very much for the question.

非常感謝您的提問。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Appreciate the color.

感謝色彩。

Ari Rosa, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里·羅莎 (Ari Rosa)。

Ari, good morning.

阿里，早安。

Hey, good morning, Jim, and congrats on congrats on the nice results here in the fourth quarter.

嘿，早上好，吉姆，恭喜你在第四季度取得了良好的成績。

So I wanted to ask about the operating ratio.

所以我想問一下營運比率。

You mentioned this expectation of industry-leading operating ratio.

您提到了對行業領先的營業比率的預期。

Just wanted to understand a little bit more.

只是想多了解一點。

What gives you confidence in that target?

什麼使您對這個目標有信心？

And if you could talk about kind of how you perceive the structural advantage of the UP relative to some of your competitors, especially given the context of BN maybe having some challenges in the fourth quarter that maybe held up some of their intermodal partners.

並且您可以談談您如何看待 UP 相對於一些競爭對手的結構性優勢，尤其是考慮到 BN 可能在第四季度面臨一些挑戰，從而阻礙了他們的一些多式聯運合作夥伴的發展。

So if you could just give a little more color on that outlook, both kind of short term and longer term, how we should think about that, the OR evolution?

因此，如果您能從短期和長期兩個角度進一步闡述這種前景，我們應該如何看待 OR 的演變？

Ari, I don't -- I'm not going to comment about any other railroad.

阿里，我不會——我不會對任何其他鐵路發表評論。

We have a position that -- it's a complicated network that we have.

我們的立場是──我們擁有一個複雜的網絡。

It truly is.

確實如此。

It's not linear.

它不是線性的。

It's complicated.

情況很複雜。

But I think we've fundamentally figured out a way to operate it and be as efficient as possible.

但我認為我們已經從根本上找到了一種運作它並盡可能提高效率的方法。

We want to be the leaders when it comes to operating ratio.

我們希望在營運比率方面處於領先地位。

And that's what we're delivering.

這正是我們想要傳遞的。

And I'm not sure what the other railroads are going to because we're first up.

而且我不確定其他鐵路的情況會是怎樣，因為我們是先行者。

I'm assuming that we will have the best operating ratio.

我假設我們將擁有最佳的營運比率。

That's an outcome of everything we do.

這是我們所做一切的結果。

That's the important piece is, Ari, what do we do with -- do we provide good service so we can maximize price, so our customers can win and grow in the marketplace.

最重要的一點是，阿里，我們要做什麼——我們是否提供良好的服務以便能夠最大化價格，這樣我們的客戶才能在市場上獲勝並成長。

That's really important for us.

這對我們來說真的很重要。

That triangle is that operationally, do we look at our assets, how we operate the number of people?

那個三角形就是從操作上來說，我們是否看重我們的資產，我們要如何操作人數？

And do we use technology?

我們使用科技嗎？

And like we're excited about net control and how we're going to be able to quickly change our operating plan faster than we've ever been able to do before to run -- to operate the railroad more efficiently.

我們對網路控制感到非常興奮，我們將能夠以比以前更快的速度改變我們的營運計劃，從而更有效率地運營鐵路。

So with all those things, I personally -- and I said this publicly and I'll say it again, all the railroads should be very close when it comes to operating ratio.

所以考慮到所有這些因素，我個人——我公開說過這一點，我會再說一遍，所有鐵路的營運率都應該非常接近。

There's no reason for the Class 1s not to be, and I know some -- I'll probably get some notes from some of the other CEOs, and I'd appreciate the call or the text.

沒有理由不選擇 1 級，而且我知道一些——我可能會從其他一些 CEO 那裡得到一些信息，如果您能打電話或發短信我將非常感激。

But at the end of the day, we want to be in the best position.

但最終，我們還是想處於最佳位置。

And you can see what happens when we have a little bit of volume.

而且您可以看到當我們有一點音量時會發生什麼。

We price smart.

我們定價合理。

We operate the railroad efficiently.

我們有效率地營運鐵路。

We end up with a 58.0%.

我們的最終得分是 58.0%。

Are we always going to be at 58.0%?

我們的這一比例會一直維持在 58.0% 嗎？

No, we might go up a little bit, depending on what the market conditions are.

不，我們可能會稍微上調價格，這取決於市場狀況。

But we're going to drive that to be the best.

但我們會努力將其做到最好。

And stay tuned, okay?

請繼續關注，好嗎？

I don't think anybody thought we were going to be able to deliver a 58% and hang on and watch us go.

我想沒有人會想到我們能夠實現 58% 的成績並且堅持看著我們前進。

That's the win for us.

這對我們來說是勝利。

Anybody else wanted to comment anything further?

還有人想發表進一步評論嗎？

Nobody else wants to say anything after that.

此後沒人願意再說什麼。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯康姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎哈納。

Morning, Bascome.

早上好，巴斯科姆。

Good morning, Jim.

早安，吉姆。

In one of the earlier questions, you talked about some opportunity with the FRA waiver backlog potentially beginning to clear and opening up some efficiency.

在之前的問題中，您談到了 FRA 豁免積壓可能開始清理並帶來一些效率提升的機會。

But this week, we also had Patrick Fuchs take over as STB Chairman.

但本週，我們也迎來了 Patrick Fuchs 接任新加坡旅遊局主席。

Can you talk about that side of the regulatory fence?

您能談談監管方面的這方面嗎？

What have you learned from working with him as a Board member over the last six years?

過去六年作為董事會成員與他共事，您學到了什麼？

And over the next several years, what opportunities is UP, or the industry have that might not have been on the table under (inaudible) Oberman leadership?

那麼在接下來的幾年裡，UP 或整個產業有哪些機會，這些機會在（聽不清楚） Oberman 的領導下可能不會出現？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Listen, there's always changes in who leads and I've had a number of meetings with Mr. Fuchs, okay, very smart individual.

聽著，領導者總是會發生變化，我與福克斯先生舉行過多次會議，他是一個非常聰明的人。

And the rest of the Board is very strong.

董事會的其他成員也非常強大。

So at the end of the day, the way I look at it is we have the same goal.

所以最終我認為我們擁有相同的目標。

We want to provide good service to our customers.

我們希望為客戶提供良好的服務。

And if we can provide good service to our customers, they win in the marketplace and we both win, and the STB deals with those things.

如果我們能夠為我們的客戶提供良好的服務，他們在市場上就會獲勝，我們雙方都會獲勝，而新加坡旅遊局會處理這些事情。

Now at the end of the day, there's a lot of other things that the STB does.

現在，STB 還可以做很多其他的事情。

They look at mergers, they look at acquisitions.

他們關注合併，關注收購。

And I'm absolutely sure that everybody, the STB and the railroads would like quick decisions, quicker movement on what's happening.

我完全相信，無論是新加坡交通部還是鐵路部門，都希望能夠迅速做出決定，對正在發生的事情採取更快的行動。

And I'm hoping that, that's how we move ahead.

我希望，這就是我們前進的方向。

But I'm very comfortable that the relationship will be strong and we'll continue to have a strong relationship with all the regulators.

但我非常確信，我們之間的關係將會十分牢固，我們將繼續與所有監管機構保持牢固的關係。

There is a position to have regulators there.

那裡有監管者的職位。

There is a need, and I'm very comfortable that we'll work with them and be very transparent about what we're doing at Union Pacific.

有需要，我很高興與他們合作，並且對我們在聯合太平洋公司所做的事情保持透明。

Anybody else have any comments on that any further?

還有人對此還有其他評論嗎？

Because you've all met with the STB, Kenny?

因為你們都跟 STB 見過面了，肯尼？

Not one.

一個也沒有。

I mean, we're looking forward to it as the commercial leader, we want quicker outcomes so that we can service the marketplace.

我的意思是，作為商業領袖，我們對此充滿期待，我們希望更快地獲得成果，以便我們能夠服務市場。

So it's encouraging.

這令人鼓舞。

Eric, anything from -- you deal with them lots?

艾瑞克，有什麼事嗎——你經常和他們打交道嗎？

I think that's the exact same comment.

我認為這是完全相同的評論。

I mean even in the engagements that we've had with them on even service things, right, continuing to move faster.

我的意思是，即使在我們與他們就服務事宜進行的合作中，我們也在繼續加快步伐。

I know Patrick in the past has had a really good perspective on how we think about service.

我知道帕特里克過去對我們如何看待服務有著非常好的見解。

So looking forward to working with them.

我非常期待與他們合作。

I know, Jennifer, you don't meet with them as often, but maybe we should get you there more often because you've got a better personality for it than me, maybe, but anything to add?

我知道，詹妮弗，你不經常和他們見面，但也許我們應該讓你更常去那裡，因為你的性格比我更適合那裡，也許吧，但還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No.

不。

I think your point about our goals being aligned is the important one.

我認為你提到的我們的目標是一致的這一點很重要。

They want a strong rail franchise.

他們想要擁有強大的鐵路特許經營權。

It's the best thing for the nation or national security, our economy, and we want to grow with our customers.

這對國家安全、我們的經濟是最好的事情，我們希望與我們的客戶一起成長。

And I think working together to fulfill that purpose is what everybody wants.

我認為共同努力實現這一目標是每個人都希望的。

Perfect.

完美的。

Great question.

好問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you all.

謝謝大家。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Morning, Ken.

早安，肯。

Hey, great.

嘿，太棒了。

Good morning, Jim and team.

早上好，吉姆和團隊。

Congrats on the solid OR and results, but maybe digging in a little bit on that, Jen, you guided in the appendix, the other expense to $325 million, $350 million.

恭喜您取得了穩健的 OR 和成果，但也許需要深入研究一下，Jen，您在附錄中指導說，其他費用為 3.25 億美元、3.5 億美元。

Maybe can you delve into what happened in the fourth quarter?

您能否深入探討一下第四季發生的事情？

I think you mentioned the bad debt expense.

我想您提到了壞帳費用。

Can you talk about a scale of the one-timer, or the scale of casualty expense that we should see bounce back?

您能談談一次性支出的規模，或者我們應該看到反彈的傷亡費用的規模嗎？

And I guess maybe I'm just ultimately getting at trying to think about the cadence to first quarter.

我想也許我只是最終試著思考第一季的節奏。

Can you talk about seasonality in what we should -- I know you don't delve into quarterly specific, but maybe just normal historical seasonality, how we should think about the move given the improved performance here in the fourth quarter?

您能談談我們應該注意的季節性嗎——我知道您不會深入研究具體的季度因素，但也許只是正常的歷史季節性，考慮到第四季度業績的改善，我們應該如何考慮這一舉措？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean when we look at other expense for the fourth quarter, I mean, casualty was really the driver there.

我的意思是，當我們看一下第四季度的其他費用時，傷亡確實是導致這一現象的因素。

I did call out the bad debt expense, but the bigger piece was the casualty, both in terms of looking at it year-over-year because we did have a pretty big step-up in fourth quarter of 2023, as well as the fact that we're starting to see some better performance here in 2024.

我確實提到了壞帳費用，但更大的問題是損失，無論是從同比來看，因為我們在 2023 年第四季度確實有相當大的增長，還是我們將在2024 年開始看到一些更好的表現。

That's a little slower to come through on the expense side, but you heard Eric and Jim both talked about the fact that we're continuing to drive better safety performance.

從費用方面來看，這一進程稍微慢了一點，但你聽到埃里克和吉姆都談到了我們正在繼續提高安全性能的事實。

So that's really where I'd focus in, in terms of the driver for fourth quarter.

所以就第四季的驅動因素而言，這確實是我關注的重點。

In terms of looking out into 2025 within that category, it's probably one of the least seasonal categories we have, quite frankly.

坦白說，展望 2025 年，該類別可能是我們季節性最不強的類別之一。

State and taxes, state and local taxes is the biggest component of that.

州和稅、州和地方稅是其中最大的組成部分。

And then you do have some of the other things like the casualty like bad debt, travel, all those fun things.

然後你還會遇到一些其他的事情，像是壞帳、旅行等意外事件，以及所有有趣的事情。

So I wouldn't think about that in terms of a lot of seasonality on that expense line.

因此，我不會從季節性的角度考慮這筆費用。

I mean, just on the expense on cadence into first quarter of kind of the OR, did you normally see 150 basis point deterioration.

我的意思是，僅就第一季的節奏費用而言，您通常會看到 150 個基點的惡化嗎？

Is that would you see that given all the backdrop that you're talking about in a big picture way?

考慮到您所談論的所有背景，您是否會從宏觀角度看待這個問題？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, obviously, I'm not going to give you a guide, Ken, for the quarter.

我的意思是，很明顯，肯，我不會為你提供本季的指南。

But I think in terms of seasonality, you understand it, there is a difference.

但我認為，就季節性而言，你明白，是有差別的。

When you start out the year, you have some beginning of year costs, if you think about some of the payroll taxes that kick back in.

當你開始新的一年時，如果你考慮一些返還的工資稅，你會有一些年初成本。

For us, our business is a railroad.

對我們來說，我們的業務是鐵路。

You generally see some of the lowest volumes of the year in the first quarter.

通常，第一季的交易量會出現一年中最低的水平。

And then you tend to have some more weather expenses.

然後你往往會有更多的天氣開支。

I mean, I'm not used to paying for snow removal in New Orleans, but I think I'm going to this year a little bit.

我的意思是，我以前不習慣在新奧爾良支付清除積雪的費用，但我想今年我會付一點錢。

So you have some of those things happening.

所以，有些事情正在發生。

So pleased to see the way the railroad started in terms of the volume demand and the fluidity.

很高興看到鐵路在運量需求和流動性方面的起步。

But from a seasonality perspective, I wouldn't look for anything unusual there.

但從季節性的角度來看，我不會在那裡尋找任何不尋常的東西。

Appreciate your clarification.

感謝您的澄清。

Thanks for the time.

感謝您的時間。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good morning and thanks for the time.

嘿，早上好，感謝您抽出時間。

So Kenny, I got a couple of questions for you.

肯尼，我有幾個問題想問你。

First is, in the intermodal business, can you give us a sense for where utilization is in the box pool fleet for you guys right now?

首先，在多式聯運業務中，您能否告訴我們目前你們的貨櫃共享車隊的使用率如何？

Obviously, there's a lot of channel inventory that's been built up by the intermodal marketing companies through the pandemic taking too many boxes.

顯然，聯運行銷公司在疫情期間累積了大量通路庫存，佔用了太多箱子。

I'm just wondering where your utilization is kind of running right now on railroad owned equipment?

我只是想知道您現在在鐵路設備上的利用情況如何？

And then the second question would be whether this recent uptick in natural gas prices that we're seeing may have some benefit for you on the pricing side with some of your utility coal contracts?

然後第二個問題是，我們看到的最近天然氣價格上漲是否會對您的一些公用事業煤炭合約的定價方面帶來一些好處？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So the first question, thanks.

所以第一個問題，謝謝。

We certainly did deploy our rail fleet in the second half.

我們確實在下半年部署了我們的鐵路車隊。

We saw it grow and really do really well in our portfolio fleet.

我們看到它不斷成長，並且在我們的投資組合中表現十分出色。

When I say portfolio, I'm talking about the private asset both the IMCs.

當我說投資組合時，我指的是 IMC 的私人資產。

So we saw a shrink there.

因此我們在那裡見了一位心理醫生。

It wasn't fully deployed.

它還沒有完全部署。

So there's upside there.

因此這其中還有好處。

And so we'll see what happens as we move throughout the year.

因此，我們將拭​​目以待，看看全年會發生什麼。

Switching to natural gas I'll tell you.

改用天然氣我會告訴你。

It's one of the most volatile things to do, and I've been in this role now for seven years, and I've gotten out of that game of trying to forecast what's going to happen with natural gas.

這是最不穩定的事情之一，我擔任這個職位已經有七年了，我已經不再試圖預測天然氣的走勢了。

But bottom line, you asked a direct question.

但最重要的是，你問了一個直接的問題。

We should see some benefit if natural gas prices increase, absolutely.

如果天然氣價格上漲，我們絕對會看到一些好處。

Right.

正確的。

And is there any way to quantify how many more boxes kind of are stacked today versus maybe you would have had normally pre-COVID?

有沒有辦法量化目前堆放的箱子數量與疫情之前相比增加了多少？

No, I would just say that if you look at the overall market, again, I mean, the overall market is still not where it should be.

不，我只是想說，如果你再看一下整體市場，我的意思是，整體市場仍然沒有達到應有的水準。

There's still upside.

仍有上升空間。

And so we still feel good about deploying those boxes as the market comes back.

因此，隨著市場復甦，我們仍然對部署這些盒子感到樂觀。

All right.

好的。

Thanks for the time.

感謝您的時間。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）。

Good morning.

早安.

Just coming back to intermodal.

剛剛回到多式聯運。

If the trends hold up that international facing those tough comps, maybe volumes be tough to grow in the back half of the year.

如果國際上面臨這些嚴峻競爭情勢，那麼下半年的銷售可能很難成長。

Does the domestic intermodal offset can that provide even if volumes are perhaps down?

即使貨運量可能下降，國內聯運是否能提供補償？

Can that provide a favorable net positive in terms of mix, margin, EBIT dollars, et cetera?

這能否在產品組合、利潤率、息稅前利潤等方面帶來有利的淨收益？

Thanks.

謝謝。

You want to start, Jennifer?

你想開始嗎，詹妮弗？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, everything depends on magnitude, right, Jordan?

我的意思是，一切都取決於大小，對吧，喬丹？

So I think it's unfair to really kind of focus in on one commodity line like international intermodal.

因此，我認為只關注國際聯運這樣的一條商品線是不公平的。

You're right, the comps are going to be extremely tough in the back half.

你說得對，後半段的比賽將會非常艱難。

But there's a lot of other businesses that we move, and that's really what's going to ultimately play into what our financial results will be.

但我們也轉移了許多其他業務，最終將對我們的財務表現產生影響。

So maybe domestic intermodal offset some of that, but we've got a lot of other business lines that we're going to move, and we're going to try to maximize those.

因此，也許國內聯運可以抵消其中的一些影響，但我們還有很多其他業務線需要轉移，我們將努力使這些業務線最大化。

So I don't know that we want to get into the game of trying to make a prediction about how the back half actually looks.

所以我不知道我們是否想參與這場遊戲並試圖預測後半部分的實際情況。

There's a lot to happen between now and then.

從現在到那時，會發生很多事情。

But the bottom line is we feel confident and we're bullish on the domestic intermodal market went into 2025.

但最重要的是，我們對 2025 年的國內多式聯運市場充滿信心並持樂觀態度。

That's the key.

這才是關鍵。

Yeah.

是的。

And we've had some great franchise wins there that we still haven't seen the full benefit from.

我們在那裡取得了一些偉大的特許經營勝利，但我們仍未看到其全部利益。

Thanks for the question, Jordan.

謝謝你的提問，喬丹。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾伊姆布羅、史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good morning, everybody.

嘿，大家早安。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

Maybe to follow up on the volume outlook.

也許是為了跟進銷售前景。

If you look on the outlook on slide 11.

如果你看一下第 11 張投影片上的展望。

On a headline, there's more pluses than minuses.

就標題而言，優點多於缺點。

But how should we think about the mix impact on revenue per carload?

但是，我們該如何看待混合成分對每輛車收入的影響呢？

You just talked about intermodal in the previous question.

您剛才在上一個問題中談到了多式聯運。

But I guess, any visibility into changes of mix within mix within these categories that we should be aware of when we think about the market share wins?

但是我想，當我們考慮市場份額的贏得時，我們應該意識到這些類別中組合的變化嗎？

And Jennifer, I understand that you don't want to guide each quarter, but how should we think about volume growth through the year given the more difficult back half comparisons?

珍妮佛，我知道您不想為每個季度提供指導，但考慮到上半年的比較更加困難，我們應該如何考慮全年的銷售成長？

Can we grow volume each quarter?

我們每季都能增加銷量嗎？

Would that be kind of a base case expectation?

這是一種基本預期嗎？

Just any color there would be helpful.

任何顏色都可以。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, Daniel, thanks for the question.

是的，丹尼爾，謝謝你的提問。

So I mean, we specifically aren't giving volume guidance either for full year or on a quarterly basis.

所以我的意思是，我們不會給出全年或季度的銷售指引。

I think you've laid out, as we laid out, kind of what some of the puts and takes are through the year.

我想你已經像我們一樣闡述了全年的一些得失。

I think the important thing is, is that we're very well positioned.

我認為重要的是我們處於非常有利的位置。

The service product is good.

服務產品很好。

Kenny and his team are out there winning new business.

肯尼和他的團隊正在贏得新業務。

And so we're going to do all we can to push that curve upward.

因此我們將竭盡全力推動該曲線上升。

But there's also market forces out there that we're going to be playing against, and we'll just see how that all plays out.

但我們也將要應對市場力量，我們只需觀察其如何發揮作用。

From a mix perspective, and I did say this in my comments, when I look to the back half of the year with what we expect to happen from international intermodal, that will alleviate that mix pressure that we had in the back half of 2024.

從組合角度來看，我在我的評論中確實說過這一點，當我展望今年下半年我們預計國際聯運將會發生什麼時，這將減輕我們在 2024 年下半年面臨的組合壓力。

How that ultimately shapes out, kind of similar to my answer to Jordan, will depend on what the rest of the business is doing at that point in time.

最終結果如何，有點類似於我對喬丹的回答，將取決於當時其他業務的進展。

But I think you're thinking about the different components correctly.

但我認為您對不同組件的思考是正確的。

It's just a matter of what else layers in along with those as we go ahead.

這只是在我們前進的過程中，還會有哪些其他層面的問題。

Certainly, mix will continue to be a challenge here, at least in the first part of the year as international intermodal stays strong.

當然，由於國際聯運保持強勁，混合運輸仍將是一項挑戰，至少在今年上半年是如此。

I don't know, Kenny, if you want to add anything else?

我不知道，肯尼，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

You've hit it all.

你已經全部擊中了。

Again, the credo here for the management team is we're going to have volume outpaced the market, and we expect the revenue to outpace volume.

再次強調，管理團隊的信條是，我們的銷售量要超過市場，我們預期收入也將超過銷售量。

I guess the only thing I would say is this, our business mix actually is, is we've got a broad range of customers in a broad range of markets that we play in.

我想我唯一想說的是，我們的業務組合實際上是，我們在廣泛的市場中擁有廣泛的客戶。

So of course, we want to maximize all of them in a smart way that fits our network, makes our customers win and it's service that we can provide at our level.

因此，我們當然希望以一種適合我們網路的智慧方式最大限度地利用所有這些功能，讓我們的客戶受益，並提供我們所能提供的水平的服務。

So puts and takes.

所以放與拿。

International we don't see it being able to stay at that.

在國際上，我們認為它不可能維持現狀。

Nobody -- if I go back to the early part of 2024, nobody thought the international intermodal for the Western railroads was going to grow in for Union Pacific as much as it did, but it did.

如果我回到 2024 年初，沒有人會想到西部鐵路的國際聯運會對聯合太平洋鐵路產生如此大的影響，但事實確實如此。

But we also have products across.

但我們也有跨領域的產品。

Whether it's industrial products, whether it's sand for fracking, you name, and that's the nice part about our franchise is the different types of customers that we handle.

無論是工業產品，還是用於水力壓裂的沙子，無論什麼產品，我們的特許經營的優點在於我們可以處理不同類型的客戶。

We move every day products that America needs for finished products, consumer goods and inputs to the economy.

我們運送美國每天所需的成品、消費品和經濟投入品。

So I'm very happy.

所以我很高興。

It's great to have this franchise that was built by a lot of people before I came to Union Pacific.

能夠擁有這個在我加入聯合太平洋鐵路之前就已經由許多人創建的特許經營權真是太好了。

So that's the way we look at it.

這就是我們看待這個問題的方式。

And of course, Kenny's job is to maximize it.

當然，肯尼的工作就是將其發揮到極致。

Otherwise, why do you have a marketing department, right?

否則，為什麼你們要設立行銷部門呢？

So I'm looking forward to another great year, Kenny.

所以我期待又一個美好的一年，肯尼。

Thank you very much for the question.

非常感謝您的提問。

Thanks for all the color.

感謝所有的色彩。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Walter Spracklin。

Good morning, Walter.

早上好，沃特。

How is it in Canada?

加拿大的情況怎麼樣？

It's pretty cold, but my backyard [rink] is in good shape, Jim.

天氣很冷，但是我的後院（溜冰場）狀況很好，吉姆。

That mentor quote, it sounds like it was a quote from Hunter, am I right?

那位導師的名言，聽起來就像是亨特的名言，對嗎？

Am I right?

我說得對嗎？

Well, it was a little earlier, but I think Hunter would have -- might have said it in a different way.

嗯，雖然有點早，但我認為亨特可能會用不同的方式來表達。

You might have not called (inaudible) But at the end of the day, yeah, he would have said something very similar.

你可能不會打電話（聽不清楚）但到最後，是的，他會說一些非常類似的話。

It's -- don't worry about all these things that you can't control.

不要擔心所有這些你無法控制的事情。

It's the fundamentals.

這是基本原則。

If you operate a strong railroad.

如果你經營一條強大的鐵路。

If you look at your costs, you make sure you're very efficient.

如果你看一下你的成本，你就會確保你非常有效率。

Don't lose sight of what's important, you end up on the winning side of the game.

不要忘記什麼是重要的，你最終會成為遊戲的贏家。

You end up on the winning side of the hockey game, Walter, good, strong defense, right, in hockey, always wins the Stanley Cup. (inaudible) person in the front, that strong core defenseman that make a difference and a strong goal.

你最終站在了冰球比賽的勝利方，沃爾特，在冰球比賽中，防守又好又強，對吧，總是能贏得史丹利杯。 （聽不清楚）前面的人，那個強大的核心防守隊員，能夠發揮重要作用，並有一個強大的目標。

So that's what we're all about.

這就是我們要做的。

Well, my son will be happy to hear that comment for sure.

好吧，我兒子聽到這個評論肯定會很高興。

Speaking of those fundamentals, Jim, you talked a bit about guidance, and it's predicated on a mixed economic outlook.

說到這些基本面，吉姆，你談了一些指導，它是基於混合的經濟前景。

And I know you like that kind of scenario analysis where we look at the upside, and I know a few of your trucking peers spoken pretty constructively here today about that potential for an improvement in the economy.

我知道您喜歡這種著眼於上行趨勢的情境分析，我也知道今天你們的一些卡車運輸同行在這裡非常有建設性地談到了經濟改善的潛力。

So if we do see that, where do you see the most opportunity for leverage if we get a better macro?

因此，如果我們確實看到這一點，您認為如果我們獲得更好的宏觀經濟，最大的槓桿機會在哪裡？

And more importantly, is this type of operating leverage that you're engineering here, Jim?

更重要的是，吉姆，你在這裡設計的就是這種類型的經營槓桿嗎？

Is this setting you up for potentially coming in above the high end of that low double-digit band?

這是否會讓你有潛力突破兩位數低段的最高值？

Or is the low double-digit capture if the economy gets better than we will do low double digits?

或者，如果經濟情勢好轉，我們的捕獲量將達到低兩位數？

Just curious to hear how that sensitivity works out for you.

我只是好奇想知道這種敏感性對你有何作用。

Well, Walter, if I didn't have a few hundred people on the call, maybe I would say something different.

好吧，沃爾特，如果我沒有幾百人參加電話會議，也許我會說一些不同的東西。

But bottom line is you know what we talk about.

但最重要的是你知道我們在談論什麼。

But you know what, you always hear from me, but I've got a strong team with me.

但是你知道嗎，你總是聽到我的消息，我有一個強大的團隊。

And Eric does a fantastic job about how we operate every day, and Kenny does a fantastic job.

埃里克 (Eric) 在我們的日常運營方面做得非常出色，肯尼 (Kenny) 也做得非常出色。

I [read] so often about why do we need a marketing department.

我經常讀到有關我們為什麼需要行銷部門的文章。

So why don't I let them talk about what they see and what we have operating leverage and what we see customer leverage as we move ahead and what that would mean.

那麼我為什麼不讓他們談談他們看到了什麼、我們擁有什麼營運槓桿、我們看到的客戶槓桿是什麼以及這些意味著什麼呢？

So Kenny or Eric?

那麼 Kenny 還是 Eric？

I'll kick off, Eric, and then you take over.

我先開球，艾瑞克，然後你接手。

I mean, look, we laid out the slide, but I'm very bullish on what we're seeing in our grain products area with renewable diesel.

我的意思是，你看，我們已經制定了幻燈片，但我對我們在穀物產品領域看到再生柴油的情況非常樂觀。

And I'm bullish from a number of reasons.

我出於多種原因而對此持樂觀態度。

One is structural.

一是結構性的。

You -- we've talked about these facilities that are on our line.

您 — — 我們已經討論過我們生產線上的這些設施。

Eric service product has given us flexibility on the grain side to move anywhere in the world, whether it's going on in the Gulf, whether it's going to Mexico, whether it's going to the PNW.

Eric 的服務產品讓我們能夠靈活地將穀物運送至世界任何地方，無論是墨西哥灣、墨西哥灣或太平洋西北地區。

And we'll see where coal ends up.

我們將會看到煤炭的最終去向。

I got a coal question a little bit early.

我稍早前就收到了關於煤炭的問題。

It started off, [coal] solid here, and we've got a win that's coming off.

一開始，這裡的煤炭就很穩定，我們即將取得勝利。

On the industrial side, our petrochem business has been strong.

在工業方面，我們的石化業務一直表現強勁。

We've had some wins.

我們取得了一些勝利。

We've been investing in that area to help us grow, we'll see that in terms of expansions coming on this year.

我們一直在該領域進行投資以幫助我們的發展，我們將在今年的擴張中看到這一點。

And then we got to look at some of these other macro indicators, what's going to happen with (inaudible) That has a really, I'll call it, a step function impact on us from a lot of different commodities.

然後，我們來看看其他一些宏觀指標，看看會發生什麼（聽不清楚），這確實對我們產生了，我稱之為來自許多不同商品的階躍影響。

And then on the premium side, we should see automotive market improve as we move throughout the year.

從高端市場來看，我們應該會看到汽車市場隨著全年的發展而不斷改善。

Domestic intermodal, I mentioned high on and should be positive.

國內聯運，我提到很高，應該是正面的。

And on the international side, I'd be remised if I didn't say we've gone out and tried to minimize those comps by winning some business last year and trying to retain portions of it, not all of it, obviously.

而在國際方面，如果我不說我們已經努力透過去年贏得一些業務並試圖保留部分業務（顯然不是全部業務）來盡量減少這些可比業務，我會感到遺憾。

So we'll see how that plays out.

我們將看看結果如何。

And then, Walter, if you pick it up from there, then the question becomes are there proof statements in Union Pacific's recent history that demonstrate that we can do exactly what Kenny just said that we can support them as he's out there in the market.

然後，沃爾特，如果你從那裡開始，那麼問題就變成了聯合太平洋鐵路近期歷史上是否有證據證明我們可以做到肯尼剛才所說的，即我們可以支持他們，因為他在市場上。

And there are a number of them.

而且這樣的人還有很多。

We talked about International Intermodal, and I think we've talked about that one enough, a massive accomplishment for the team.

我們討論了國際聯運，我想我們已經討論得足夠多了，這對團隊來說是一個巨大的成就。

But think about if we were sitting here a year ago, nobody would have expected the shift on the grain side away from the Pacific Northwest as much into Mexico.

但想想看，如果我們一年前坐在這裡，沒有人會預料到糧食供應會從太平洋西北地區轉移到墨西哥。

But you didn't hear any noise about that.

但你沒有聽到任何關於這方面的聲音。

Instead, you saw us pivot use some of those buffer resources we have, leverage our strong relationship with FXE to be able to grow that market share.

相反，您看到我們利用我們擁有的一些緩衝資源，利用我們與 FXE 的牢固關係來擴大市場份額。

You also see it in the example that I mentioned in my prepared comments about the Houston Gulf Coast project.

您也可以在我關於休士頓墨西哥灣沿岸計畫的準備好的評論中提到的例子中看到它。

Sometimes when people think about capital investments and we say projects, they think it's one location, and we must be building just a siding.

有時，當人們想到資本投資並且我們說到專案時，他們會認為這是一個地點，而我們肯定只是在建造一條側線。

That project collectively is a massive undertaking, and it's a very strategic undertaking to say where do we have to make just small adjustments, small investments in many different terminals to make sure that we can support exactly what Kenny said.

該項目總體而言是一項艱鉅的任務，也是一項非常具有戰略意義的任務，我們需要在許多不同的終端上做出小的調整、小額投資，以確保我們能夠準確支持肯尼所說的內容。

And then finally, one of the most exciting ones for me and certainly for all of us.

最後，對我，當然對我們所有人來說，這是最令人興奮的事情之一。

I tell you, every single expansion we do it on an Empire, Kenny's team just keeps filling it out.

我告訴你，我們對帝國進行的每一個擴展，肯尼的團隊都會不斷地填充它。

And so we have many proof statements that say we can support exactly what Kenny is setting out to do in 2025.

因此，我們有許多證據表明，我們可以支持肯尼在 2025 年所要做的事情。

I appreciate the color, Eric, Kenny.

我很欣賞這種顏色，艾瑞克，肯尼。

Walter, thank you very much.

沃爾特，非常感謝。

And listen, that's time for one of the Canadian teams to win the Stanley Cup, okay?

聽著，現在是加拿大球隊贏得史丹利盃的時候了，好嗎？

It's been a long time.

已經過去好久了。

Agreed.

同意。

(inaudible) And I think the Edmonton Oilers are going to do it.

（聽不清楚）我認為埃德蒙頓油工會這麼做。

I've been following them for a long time, and I've been suffering for many years, Walter.

我已經關注他們很久了，也受了好多年的苦，沃特。

Not as bad as you in Toronto, but that's okay.

沒有多倫多那麼糟糕，不過沒關係。

Don't worry about it.

別擔心。

We get it done.

我們完成了。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·考夫曼（Jeff Kauffman），垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you very much and congratulations on just a terrific execution quarter.

非常感謝，並祝賀您取得如此出色的執行季度。

Kenny, I want to come back to you, if I can.

肯尼，如果可以的話，我想回到你身邊。

I like your answer to Jason Seidl's question be prepared in terms of dealing with these known unknowns.

我喜歡你對 Jason Seidl 的問題的回答，為處理這些已知的未知數做好準備。

But I want to dive a little bit deeper.

但我想進一步深入探討。

When I think about what could be at risk on the tariff side, I'm not talking about the tax change or regulatory benefit.

當我思考關稅方面可能存在的風險時，我指的不是稅收變化或監管優惠。

You would think, obviously, export grain south.

顯然，你會想到向南方出口糧食。

You would think beer imports north.

您可能會認為啤酒來自北方。

You would think auto parts. -- what elements of your traffic mix either have maybe a Canadian Intuit that we might not see as obviously or a Mexican import export and that might not be as obvious to us on the outside?

您可能會想到汽車零件。 ——您的交通組合中有哪些元素可能是我們可能不太明顯的加拿大 Intuit，或者是我們可能不太明顯的墨西哥進出口？

Well, first of all, I just want to say it's all fluid, and I'm not aware when I look across our commodity groups where -- maybe there is one specific commodity I can think about, but most of these commodities have different entry points and different origin points, different destinations.

首先，我想說的是，這一切都是流動的，我不知道，當我查看我們的商品類別時，也許我能想到一種特定的商品，但大多數這些商品都有不同的進入方式。點，不同的出發點，不同的目的地。

That's why I talk about preparedness because we have just a great franchise to be able to capture that.

這就是我談論準備的原因，因為我們擁有出色的特許經營權，能夠抓住這一點。

So whether it's finished vehicles that have to come in through the Gulf.

因此，無論是整車還是整車都必須透過海灣進口。

Whether it's finished vehicles that have to come in through Mexico.

無論是整車還是整車都必須透過墨西哥進口。

Whether it's finished vehicles that we move out of the PNW.

我們是否將整車運出太平洋西北地區？

We have different entry points and destination points to move in and out.

我們有不同的入口點和目的地點可以進出。

That's why I harp so much on preparedness.

這就是我如此強調準備工作的原因。

The end consumer is going to consume these products.

最終消費者將會消費這些產品。

It may be a few pennies more.

可能會多幾分錢。

They're going to consume the product.

他們將會消費該產品。

It's just how it's going to get there.

這只是如何到達那裡而已。

And our commercial team is all over this to make sure it moves Union Pacific.

我們的商業團隊全力以赴，確保聯合太平洋鐵路能夠順利運作。

So maybe to your point, I guess, maybe the thing we should be thinking about is, maybe the way it gets to where it's going changes, but your feeling is that the team will find a solution if that has to be?

所以我想，也許就你的觀點而言，我們應該考慮的是，也許它到達目的地的方式應該改變，但你的感覺是，如果必須的話，團隊會找到解決方案？

So I hit that point, I thought I hit it hard earlier.

所以當我達到那個點時，我認為我早就達到那個程度了。

That's exactly what I'm saying.

這正是我要說的。

Our job, our commercial team needs, and we are, and we're dialed in on where these changes will be and then coming up with solutions with Eric's team to make sure we can deliver.

我們的工作、我們的商業團隊的需求，以及我們正在做的事情，我們都在關注這些變化將會在哪裡發生，然後和艾瑞克的團隊一起想出解決方案，以確保我們能夠實現。

Yeah, good morning, [I just want] to say that, and thanks for the question.

是的，早安，[我只想]這麼說，感謝您的提問。

I think you summarized it well.

我認為你總結得很好。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀的湯姆‧韋德維茲 (Tom Wadewitz)

Hi.

你好。

Yeah, good morning.

是的，早安。

I wanted to -- I think you had some pretty positive and convicted views on pricing and focus on price, which is great.

我想——我認為你對定價和關注價格有一些非常積極和堅定的看法，這很好。

How do you think about the truck, your assumptions on truckload market?

您如何看待卡車？

And do you just think, well, we'll get a little help from some modest contract increases in trucking that helps us.

您是否認為，卡車運輸合約中的一些適度增加會給我們帶來一些幫助？

And -- or how do you think about that?

並且——或者您對此有什麼看法？

And also, just on intermodal revenue per unit, is that something that's been a pretty meaningful drag for a while.

而且，僅就單位聯運收入而言，這在一段時間內一直是個相當大的拖累因素。

I know some of that [can be filled with] surcharge and mix and everything.

我知道其中一些[可以填充]附加費和混合物等等。

But that's been a pretty big drag.

但這是一個相當大的阻礙。

How do you think about revenue per unit in intermodal in 2025 as well?

您認為 2025 年多式聯運的每單位收入為何？

So the last couple of years, we -- I have resisted from going on and forecasting back half, back half, back half.

所以過去幾年，我們—我一直避免繼續預測下半年、下半年、下半年。

We want to look at the data points and the market data points, we'll tell you whether you're looking at [DAC] whether you're looking at FTR, that it should improve as we move throughout the year.

我們希望查看數據點和市場數據點，我們會告訴您是否正在查看[DAC]，是否正在查看FTR，它應該隨著我們全年的發展而得到改善。

Customer sentiment is the same as we're talking to a number of our IMCs and private asset folks will let that market play out, the timing of it.

客戶情緒與我們與許多資產管理公司和私人資產人員交談時是一樣的，他們會讓市場發揮作用，把握時機。

We'll see where that goes.

我們將拭目以待。

The extent of it, we'll see where that goes.

至於其程度如何，我們拭目以待。

And yeah, if that improves, we should see some uptick there based on how we position things in terms of that revenue per box.

是的，如果情況有所改善，我們應該會看到一些上升趨勢，這取決於我們如何根據每箱收入進行定位。

Yeah.

是的。

And Tom, I think you really nailed it in terms of what you see as the drivers there.

湯姆，我認為你對那裡的司機的了解非常準確。

I mean, it's one of those categories where we have mix within mix.

我的意思是，它是我們混合在一起的類別之一。

We talked at our Analyst Day about how our international intermodal has our lowest revenue per unit of any commodity that we haul.

我們在分析師日上談到了為什麼我們的國際聯運每單位收入是我們運輸的所有商品中最低的。

And so when that's growing strong within that group, you see that impact.

因此，當這種趨勢在該群體中不斷增強時，你會看到其影響。

And of course, fuel coming down is another thing.

當然，燃料下降又是另一回事。

So both of those are really what you see happening there, as well as the tougher competitive environment.

所以這兩件事確實發生在那兒，而且競爭環境也更加激烈。

The only thing I can add, Tom, is just on the productivity side of the way we've been able to change the way we operate our lowest revenue movements.

湯姆，我唯一能補充的是，在生產力方面，我們已經能夠改變最低收入運動的運作方式。

And no offense or buts, there's a big difference between some products that we move because we don't price the same for every commodity.

無意冒犯或但是，我們運送的一些產品之間存在很大差異，因為我們對每種商品的定價並不相同。

But at the end of the day, we've done a lot of work on terminal well, car speed, car velocity, how many boxes we can put on a train to be able to make it more efficient for us so that we handle the difference in the revenue that we make.

但最終，我們在終端井、車速、車速、一列火車上能裝多少箱子等方面做了很多工作，以提高我們的效率，以便我們可以處理我們的收入差異。

And that's -- and the Eric's team works every day, every minute on that commodity to see how do we optimize the railroad and the cost structure that we have against the revenue that we make on it.

這就是——埃里克的團隊每時每刻都在研究這種商品，以研究如何優化鐵路和現有的成本結構，以實現我們從中獲得的收入。

So it's a challenge.

所以這是一個挑戰。

And -- but at the end of the day, I think we've done a pretty good job of it, and we still love that business.

而且——但最終，我認為我們做得非常好，我們仍然熱愛這項業務。

It's good for us and moves through our whole network.

這對我們有好處並且可貫穿我們的整個網絡。

And the more efficient we can get, the better we are on being able to handle more of it in an efficient manner and maybe put a little less pressure on Kenny -- Well, I guess not.

而且我們的效率越高，我們就越能以高效的方式處理更多的事情，也許還能減輕肯尼的壓力——嗯，我想不是。

They price it up.

他們抬高了價格。

Well, thanks for the question, Tom.

好吧，謝謝你的提問，湯姆。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Oliver Holmes, Redburn Atlantic.

奧利佛‧霍姆斯 (Oliver Holmes)，雷德伯恩大西洋 (Redburn Atlantic)。

Morning, Oliver.

早上好，奧利佛。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Oliver you're breaking up.

奧利佛，你要分手了。

I can't understand it.

我無法理解。

I don't know if anybody else from the table can

我不知道桌上還有誰能

--

--

No.

不。

All I hear is something about CapEx.

我所聽到的都是有關資本支出 (CapEx) 的事情。

Yeah.

是的。

Can you maybe just get into a little better spot or something and see if you can get through to us, please?

你能不能找個好一點的地方或別的什麼地方看看能不能聯絡我們？

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

No, still breaking up, Oliver.

不，還是分手吧，奧利佛。

Can we go to the next question and then see if we can get Oliver in a different spot because I know we're down to the last couple?

我們可以進入下一個問題，然後看看是否可以讓奧利佛處於不同的位置，因為我知道我們只剩下最後幾個了？

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基 (Brandon Oglenski)。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, all.

大家早安。

Thanks for getting my question in here.

感謝您在這裡提出我的問題。

I know it's been a long call, and I was off for the front part of it, so apologies if I'm replicating something here.

我知道這是一個很長的電話，而且我在前面部分已經說完了，所以如果我在這裡重複了某些內容，請原諒。

But I guess, Jim or Kenny, we've heard about better service.

但我想，吉姆或肯尼，我們聽說過更好的服務。

And I think what investors are looking for at Union Pacific and other railroads is to finally see real volume growth.

我認為投資者對聯合太平洋鐵路和其他鐵路的期望是最終看到真正的運量成長。

So on the back of those service gains that you guys have made in the network, Kenny, within the context of your comments about volume outpacing the market this year?

那麼，肯尼，在您談到今年的運輸量超過市場水平的背景下，你們在網路中所取得的服務收益如何？

I mean, is this incremental wins?

我的意思是，這是漸進式勝利嗎？

Is it business development efforts that are driving this?

是業務發展努力推動了這項進程嗎？

And finally, leveraging that service product?'

最後，利用該服務產品？

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，絕對是如此。

I mean if you look at our network minus the business development wins, especially in markets like the automotive that I highlighted in markets that are challenged, where we have structural decline like coal and markets that are emerging, and we're ahead of it in renewable diesel in a market that we expect to grow from an export perspective on the petrochem side and industrial chemical side, absolutely.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們的網絡，減去業務發展勝利，特別是在汽車市場，我強調的這些市場面臨挑戰，我們正面臨結構性衰退，如煤炭和新興市場，而我們在這方面處於領先地位。

The business development wins matter, and it does help us outpace the market.

業務發展的成功至關重要，它確實幫助我們超越了市場。

So no other way to really say that then to just hit that one head on.

所以，沒有其他方法可以真正地表達這一點，只能直接面對它。

Thank you, all.

謝謝大家。

Brandon, thank you very much.

布蘭登，非常感謝。

Operator, did we get the Oliver back on or not?

接線員，我們是否已經讓奧利佛號恢復正常運作了？

No, we did not, Mr. Vena.

沒有，維納先生。

I'll turn it over to you for closing comments.

我將把它交給你們來做最後評論。

Okay.

好的。

Well, listen, Oliver call in.

好吧，聽著，奧利佛打電話進來。

Brad, and the team are always willing to answer the question, so I apologize that it didn't work out.

布拉德和他的團隊總是願意回答這個問題，所以我很抱歉沒有成功。

But listen, I'm very proud of the team.

但聽著，我為這個團隊感到非常自豪。

I'm very proud of the focus.

我對於這種專注感到非常自豪。

I'm proud of every -- today, right now, we have 15,000 people out there moving, touching and working to move the products that we sell.

我為每一位員工感到自豪——今天，此時此刻，我們有 15,000 名員工在工作、移動和接觸我們銷售的產品。

And the rest of us are in a nice warm office, and they're out there working.

我們其餘的人都在溫暖舒適的辦公室工作。

I can't be more appreciative.

我非常感激。

Great quarter for all of them, great quarter for us and looking forward to speaking to all of you, if not at some conference or at some other time at the end of the first quarter.

對他們所有人來說這都是一個偉大的季度，對我們來說這也是一個偉大的季度，期待與大家交談，如果不是在某個會議上或在第一季末的其他時間。

So thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Have a great day, and let's enjoy the day as we go forward.

祝您有美好的一天，讓我們享受前進的步伐。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Mr. Vena and thank you to everyone for joining us today.

謝謝您，維納先生，也謝謝大家今天的參加。

You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路了。

We thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

我們感謝您的參與並祝您有美好的一天。