普登 (UNM) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jeannie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Unum Group's second-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。我叫珍妮，今天我將擔任您的會議接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Unum Group 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Royal, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係部門的 Matt Royal。請繼續。

Great. Thank you, Jeannie, and good morning to everyone. Let's get started.

偉大的。謝謝你，珍妮，大家早安。讓我們開始吧。

Welcome to Unum Group's second-quarter 2025 earnings call. Please note that today's call may include forward-looking statements and actual results, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and may differ materially. And we are not obligated to update any of these statements. Please refer to our earnings release and our periodic filings with the SEC for a description of factors that could cause actual results to differ from expected results.

歡迎參加 Unum Group 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述和實際結果，這些陳述和結果受風險和不確定性的影響，並且可能存在重大差異。我們沒有義務更新任何這些聲明。請參閱我們的收益報告和定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素。

Yesterday afternoon, Unum released our second-quarter earnings press release and financial supplement. Those materials may be found on the Investors section of our website along with a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures included in today's presentation.

昨天下午，Unum 發布了我們的第二季財報新聞稿和財務補充報告。您可在我們網站的「投資者」部分找到這些資料，同時也能找到今天的簡報中包含的最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標和任何非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。

References made today to core operations, sales, and premium, including Unum International, are presented on a constant currency basis. Participating in this morning's conference call are Unum's President and CEO, Rick McKenney; Chief Financial Officer, Steve Zabel; Tim Arnold, who heads our Colonial Life and Voluntary Benefits lines; Chris Pyne for Group Benefits; and Mark Till, CEO of Unum International.

今天提到的核心業務、銷售額和保費（包括 Unum International）均以固定匯率計算。參加今天早上電話會議的有 Unum 總裁兼執行長 Rick McKenney、財務長 Steve Zabel、殖民地人壽和自願福利業務負責人 Tim Arnold、團體福利部門負責人 Chris Pyne 以及 Unum International 執行長 Mark Till。

Now let me turn it to Rick for his comments.

現在讓我把話題轉向 Rick 來徵求他的意見。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning to everyone joining us today to discuss our second-quarter results. There are three key areas I'll address in our opening remarks: first, a look into our current period earnings and the variability that we saw; second, a view of the market dynamics and the implications for our franchise; and third, a look at our capital levels, capital deployment, and ongoing management of the Closed Block.

謝謝你，馬特，大家早安，今天和我們一起討論第二季業績。在我們的開場白中，我將討論三個關鍵領域：首先，回顧我們當前的期間收益和我們看到的變化；其次，回顧市場動態及其對我們特許經營的影響；第三，回顧我們的資本水平、資本部署和封閉區塊的持續管理。

Looking at the second quarter, it was one where results fell short of our expectations, particularly in GAAP earnings. More broadly, our core fundamentals remain solid, particularly in premium growth. And we continue to make meaningful progress against our key strategic priorities. Notwithstanding this, benefits experience in several lines of business was higher than our expectations for this quarter and caused the overall shortfall.

縱觀第二季度，業績未能達到我們的預期，尤其是 GAAP 收益。更廣泛地說，我們的核心基本面依然穩固，尤其是保費成長。我們在關鍵戰略重點方面繼續取得有意義的進展。儘管如此，本季多個業務線的福利體驗高於我們的預期，並導致了整體的缺口。

From a top-line perspective, the second-quarter results include a continuation of strong premium growth, near 5%, with growth experienced in almost all product lines. Premium growth is at the heart of our business model and drives our ability to protect more people in the workplace. With disciplined pricing and risk management, it also drives consistent earnings growth over time.

從營收角度來看，第二季業績持續保持強勁的保費成長，增幅接近 5%，幾乎所有產品線都實現了成長。保費成長是我們商業模式的核心，並推動我們保護更多職場人士的能力。透過嚴格的定價和風險管理，它還能推動獲利長期持續成長。

Several factors support premium growth, including the renewal of current customers, the increase in the number of employees on payroll and the relative wage inflation, and the addition of new customers with new sales.

支援保費成長的因素有幾個，包括現有客戶的續約、員工數量的增加和相對薪資的上漲，以及新客戶和新銷售額的增加。

Similar to 2024, sales in the first half of 2025 have started slower than our annual growth expectations and are lower year over year. As you may recall, the back half of the year is a critical timeframe and will include a majority of annual sales, with the fourth quarter being our largest. Last year, it accounted for more than half of annual group sales.

與 2024 年類似，2025 年上半年的銷售額開局低於我們的年度成長預期，且較去年同期有所下降。您可能還記得，下半年是一個關鍵的時間段，將包括大部分年度銷售額，而第四季是我們最大的銷售額。去年，其銷售額佔集團全年銷售額的一半以上。

Given the results to date, we recognize there is more work to do. While difficult to predict, we expect sales growth to improve in the second half of the year and show relatively flat sales growth for the full year. Equally important to our premium growth is persistency of current customers, which has a more immediate benefit to the financial results than even a new sale.

鑑於迄今為止的結果，我們認識到還有很多工作要做。雖然難以預測，但我們預計下半年銷售成長將會改善，全年銷售成長將相對持平。與我們保費成長同樣重要的是現有客戶的堅持，這比新銷售對財務表現有更直接的好處。

We saw a modest uptick in persistency in the second quarter, ending the first half above our expectations across the board, which keeps our premium growth on track. Based on market feedback, our continued investments in digital capabilities and service excellence are resonating with clients, reinforcing our competitive position in helping us both win new business and retain existing relationships.

我們在第二季度看到了持續性的小幅上升，上半年的業績全面超出了我們的預期，這使我們的保費成長保持在正軌上。根據市場回饋，我們對數位化能力和卓越服務的持續投資得到了客戶的共鳴，增強了我們的競爭地位，幫助我們贏得新業務並維持現有關係。

Specifically, since 2023, we've seen average persistency several points higher on cases utilizing our HR Connect platform over non-HR Connect business. This platform allows employers to have a tighter, more simplified data connection with us. As far as wage inflation and employment levels, these both appear to be tracking on our expectations.

具體來說，自 2023 年以來，我們發現使用我們的 HR Connect 平台的案例的平均持久性比非 HR Connect 業務的案例高出幾個百分點。該平台使雇主與我們建立更緊密、更簡化的數據連結。就薪資通膨和就業水準而言，這兩者似乎都符合我們的預期。

Turning to the margins in our business, core operations continue to demonstrate solid fundamentals, with benefit ratios across all lines tracking within our expected outlook ranges. However, earnings were lower than we had expected, driven by claims experience in our group products as well as the Closed Block.

談到我們業務的利潤率，核心業務繼續表現出穩固的基本面，所有業務線的收益率均在我們預期的範圍內。然而，由於我們集團產品以及封閉式保險的理賠經驗，收益低於我們的預期。

In group disability, the benefit ratio was 62%. This is higher than what we built into our outlook coming into the year, but it is another strong result on a historical basis. We are leaders in disability insurance. And at these levels, this continues to be a well-managed, high-returning business.

在團體殘障方面，福利率為62%。這高於我們今年預期的水平，但從歷史上看，這是另一個強勁的成績。我們是殘障保險領域的領導者。從這些層面來看，這仍然是一個管理良好、高回報的業務。

We continue to see stable levels of paid claim incidence, steady levels of recoveries, and there appears to be a reasonable pricing discipline in the market. This points us to continue to have a full-year expectation of a benefit ratio in the low 60s.

我們繼續看到已付索賠發生率保持穩定，回收率保持穩定，並且市場似乎存在合理的定價紀律。這表明我們繼續預期全年收益比率將在 60% 以下。

While the benefit ratio in group life and AD&D of above 70% was in line with our outlook, it was elevated compared to prior year due to higher average claim size, which can be volatile quarter to quarter. We're still very happy with the performance here, although this margin is a little bit less than the very high margins we experienced last year.

雖然團體人壽和意外身故及殘障保險的賠付率超過 70% 與我們的預期相符，但由於平均索賠額較高（且每個季度都有波動），因此與去年相比賠付率有所上升。儘管這個利潤率比去年的高利潤率略低，但我們對這裡的表現仍然非常滿意。

Across our other core operations, earnings were relatively flat in our International and Colonial Life segments. But both experienced solid premium growth, with International up 12% on a constant currency basis and Colonial Life started to build its growth trajectory with a 3.5% premium growth. These are businesses with excellent margins and opportunities for continued growth.

在我們的其他核心業務中，國際和殖民地人壽部門的收益相對持平。但兩家公司的保費均實現了穩健的成長，其中，國際公司以固定匯率計算成長了 12%，而 Colonial Life 則以 3.5% 的保費成長率開始形成成長軌跡。這些企業擁有極佳的利潤率和持續成長的機會。

Turning to the Closed Block, there are multiple headwinds in the quarter. Our investments -- our alternative investment portfolio fell short for the second consecutive quarter but continued to inch closer to our 8% to 10% target, as we yielded 7% this quarter on an annualized basis. We also saw claims pressure in LTC. While incidence counts continue to remain similarly elevated, the pressure was more related to claim size.

談到封閉式區塊，本季面臨多重阻力。我們的投資—我們的另類投資組合連續第二季未能實現預期目標，但繼續接近我們 8% 至 10% 的目標，本季我們的年化收益率為 7%。我們也看到了長期照護方面的索賠壓力。儘管事故發生數量繼續保持類似的高位，但壓力更多地與索賠規模有關。

Most notably, we've advanced our strategic work in addressing the Closed Block. Earlier this month, we announced the closing of our external reinsurance transaction. This is a major step forward in focusing our long-term strategy of positioning Unum as a leading employee benefits provider while meaningfully reducing our exposure to legacy long-term care. The transaction reflects our disciplined approach to managing the Closed Block.

最值得注意的是，我們在解決封閉街區問題方面取得了進展。本月初，我們宣布完成外部再保險交易。這是我們在長期策略上邁出的重要一步，該策略旨在將 Unum 定位為領先的員工福利提供者，同時大幅減少我們對傳統長期照護的風險敞口。該交易體現了我們管理封閉區塊的嚴謹態度。

By improving our risk profile, freeing up capital, and sharpening our focus on more capital-efficient, higher-returning core businesses for reducing risk and strengthening protections for policyholders. We continue to prioritize actions aimed at increasing prices where appropriate and reducing the risk of the footprint of the Closed Block.

透過改善我們的風險狀況，釋放資本，並更加重視資本效率更高、回報更高的核心業務，以降低風險並加強對保單持有人的保障。我們將繼續優先採取行動，適當提高價格並降低封閉區塊的影響風險。

So bringing it all together, given the results we have seen year-to-date and expectations of the environment for the rest of the year, we now expect full-year EPS to be approximately $8.50. While this represents a notable shift compared to our expectations entering the year, we are driving a consistent strategy.

綜上所述，鑑於我們年初至今的業績以及對今年剩餘時間市場環境的預期，我們目前預計全年每股收益約為8.50美元。雖然與年初的預期相比，這是一個顯著的變化，但我們仍在推行一致的策略。

We see high returns and growth opportunities that remain for our core business in conjunction with several years of exceptional performance. We also remain encouraged and committed to further reducing our LTC exposure, a block we will continue to manage with the same discipline we've demonstrated for well over a decade.

結合多年來的優異業績，我們看到我們的核心業務仍具有高回報和成長機會。我們也將繼續受到鼓舞並致力於進一步減少我們的 LTC 風險敞口，我們將繼續以十多年來所表現出的相同紀律來管理這一領域。

We execute this strategy with a company in a robust capital position. Building from a strong capital generation model, we ended the quarter with $2 billion in holding company cash and a 485% risk-based capital ratio. We are well positioned to remain ready to act when attractive opportunities arise.

我們與一家資本雄厚的公司一起實施這項策略。基於強大的資本產生模型，我們在本季結束時擁有 20 億美元的控股公司現金和 485% 的風險資本比率。當誘人的機會出現時，我們已做好準備並立即採取行動。

We recently took several actions aligned with our capital deployment priorities to enhance the franchise and help position us for future growth. In the UK, we acquired a relatively small block of group business and became the exclusive UK employee benefits partner for the Generali Employee Benefits network. This action leverages our leading UK operations and supports our efforts to scale the business in the years ahead.

我們最近採取了多項符合資本部署重點的行動，以增強特許經營權並幫助我們為未來的成長做好準備。在英國，我們收購了相對較小的集團業務，並成為 Generali 員工福利網絡的英國獨家員工福利合作夥伴。此舉將充分利用我們在英國領先的業務，並支持我們在未來幾年擴大業務規模的努力。

In the US, we completed a capabilities-driven acquisition to further enhance our industry-leading digital platform. Similar to our 2018 acquisition of Leave Logic, this platform, Beanstalk Benefits, is a technology solution that will be integrated into our existing customer experience ecosystem, strengthening our overall digital offering.

在美國，我們完成了一項能力驅動的收購，以進一步增強我們領先業界的數位平台。與我們 2018 年收購 Leave Logic 類似，該平台 Beanstalk Benefits 是一種技術解決方案，它將整合到我們現有的客戶體驗生態系統中，從而增強我們的整體數位產品。

While an immaterial capital outlay, this capability complements our traditional insurance product set by providing digital-enabled resources, allowing employers to better care for their employees at time of need. These two transactions represent the kind of areas where we will look to continue to invest. Of course, our largest capital outlay is returning capital to shareholders.

雖然這是一項非實質的資本支出，但此功能透過提供數位化資源補充了我們的傳統保險產品，使雇主能夠在需要時更好地照顧員工。這兩筆交易代表了我們將繼續投資的領域。當然，我們最大的資本支出是向股東返還資本。

Consistent with our long-term capital deployment framework, we announced a 10% increase in our annual common stock dividend and repurchased $300 million in shares during the second quarter. That brings the year-to-date total of capital return to $650 million, with $150 million in dividends and $500 million in repurchases.

根據我們的長期資本配置框架，我們宣布將年度普通股股利提高 10%，並在第二季回購了價值 3 億美元的股票。這使得年初至今的資本回報總額達到 6.5 億美元，其中股利 1.5 億美元，回購 5 億美元。

After closing the LTC transaction and our solid overall position, we now expect to finish the year toward the upper end of our $500 million to $1 billion range of share repurchases that was outlined earlier and end the year with continued strong capital.

在完成 LTC 交易並鞏固我們的整體地位後，我們現在預計今年的股票回購金額將達到先前概述的 5 億至 10 億美元的上限，並以持續強勁的資本結束今年。

Thank you again for joining us this morning, and let me turn the call over to Steve to walk through our results in more detail. Steve?

再次感謝您今天早上加入我們，請讓我將電話轉給史蒂夫，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的結果。史蒂夫？

Great. Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. Second-quarter adjusted after-tax operating income per share was $2.07, down from $2.16 in the same period last year, reflecting the earnings pressure Rick described earlier.

偉大的。謝謝你，里克，大家早安。第二季調整後每股稅後營業利潤為 2.07 美元，低於去年同期的 2.16 美元，反映出里克先前描述的獲利壓力。

Core operations premium growth was 4.6% in the quarter, keeping us well on track to achieve our full-year premium growth outlook of 3% to 6%. This growth was driven by strong persistency and natural growth within the in-force block, both of which will mitigate the impact of pressured sales.

本季核心業務保費成長率為 4.6%，使我們有望實現 3% 至 6% 的全年保費成長預期。這一增長是由強大的持久性和有效區塊內的自然增長推動的，這兩者都將減輕銷售壓力的影響。

While these growth fundamentals remain strong, we experienced some headwinds in the first half of 2025 that are reflected in our updated outlook. When also considering our view of trends in the second half of the year, we now are expecting 2025 after-tax adjusted operating earnings per share to be approximately $8.50.

儘管這些成長基本面依然強勁，但我們在 2025 年上半年遇到了一些阻力，這反映在我們最新的展望中。考慮到我們對下半年趨勢的看法，我們現在預計 2025 年稅後調整後每股營業收益約為 8.50 美元。

I will take some time to unpack the key changes to our outlook in a moment. Diving into our quarterly operating results across the segments, the Unum US segment produced adjusted operating income of $318.2 million in the second quarter of 2025 compared to $357.5 million in the second quarter of 2024.

我稍後會花一些時間來解釋我們觀點的關鍵變化。深入研究我們各部門的季度營運業績，Unum 美國部門在 2025 年第二季的調整後營運收入為 3.182 億美元，而 2024 年第二季為 3.575 億美元。

As described in our outlook, benefit ratios for group disability and group life and AD&D were expected to increase and impact earnings growth on a year-over-year basis. This includes our full-year 2025 expectation for low 60s and around 70% benefit ratios for group disability and group life and AD&D, respectively.

正如我們在展望中所述，團體殘障保險、團體人壽保險和意外身故及殘障保險的福利率預計將增加，並影響同比盈利增長。這包括我們對 2025 年全年的預期，即團體殘障保險、團體人壽保險和意外死亡及殘障保險的福利率分別達到 60% 出頭和 70% 左右。

Group disability adjusted operating earnings of $124.8 million in the second quarter of 2025 reflects a benefit ratio of 62.2% compared to 59.1% in the year-ago period. The increase in the benefit ratio was driven by lower recoveries compared to the year-ago period. While recoveries were less favorable than they were a year ago, they are still running at a very strong level on a historical basis.

2025 年第二季集團傷殘調整後營業收入為 1.248 億美元，反映的福利率為 62.2%，去年同期為 59.1%。福利比率的上升是由於與去年同期相比回收率較低。儘管復甦情況不如一年前那麼好，但從歷史角度來看，復甦仍處於非常強勁的水平。

Sequentially, the benefit ratio was roughly consistent with the 61.8% in the first quarter with recoveries also consistent. But results were impacted by larger average claim size, which can be volatile quarter to quarter. Despite the slightly higher benefit ratio in the second quarter, returns on this line of business are still robust, as shown by its ROE in excess of 25%.

環比來看，獲利率與第一季的61.8%基本持平，復甦情況也基本一致。但結果受到較大平均索賠額的影響，且每季的平均索賠額可能會出現波動。儘管第二季收益率略有上升，但該業務的回報率依然強勁，ROE超過25%。

Results for Unum US group life and AD&D include adjusted operating income of $70.2 million for the second quarter of 2025 compared to $89.1 million in the same period a year ago. The benefit ratio increased to 69.7% compared to 65.4%, driven by an increase in average claim size. While the benefit ratio increase represents a sizable change from a year ago, it is consistent with our expectations laid out in January of approximately 70%.

Unum 美國團體人壽及意外身故及殘障保險的業績包括 2025 年第二季的調整後營業收入 7,020 萬美元，而去年同期為 8,910 萬美元。由於平均理賠額增加，賠付率從 65.4% 上升至 69.7%。雖然福利比率的增長與一年前相比有了相當大的變化，但它與我們在一月份提出的約 70% 的預期一致。

Adjusted operating earnings for the Unum US supplemental and voluntary lines were $123.2 million in the second quarter, an increase from $115.2 million in the second quarter of 2024. The increase was driven by voluntary benefits premium growth and favorable benefits experience. The voluntary benefits -- benefit ratio of 44.3% was lower than the prior year's result of 45.1% due primarily to critical illness and hospital indemnity benefits experience.

Unum 美國補充和自願線路的調整後營業收入在第二季為 1.232 億美元，高於 2024 年第二季的 1.152 億美元。這一增長是由自願福利保費增長和良好的福利體驗推動的。自願福利－福利比率為 44.3%，低於前一年的 45.1%，主要原因是重大疾病和住院補償福利經驗。

So turning to premium trends and drivers, Unum US premium grew 3.9%, with support from typical levels of natural growth and persistency at levels above our expectations. Similar to last quarter, group disability's reported premium was flat with prior year due to the runoff of the stop loss business. Excluding this impact, group disability premium grew approximately 3% year over year.

因此，談到保費趨勢和驅動因素，Unum 美國保費增長了 3.9%，這得益於典型的自然增長水平和高於我們預期的持續性水平的支持。與上一季類似，由於止損業務的流失，團體殘障保險報告的保費與去年持平。除去此影響，團體殘障保險費較去年同期增加約3%。

Unum US quarterly sales of $262.4 million compared to $313.2 million in the second quarter of 2024. Total group persistency of 89.7% increased sequentially from the first quarter but decreased from [94.4%] in the same period last year as expected.

Unum 美國季度銷售額為 2.624 億美元，而 2024 年第二季為 3.132 億美元。集團整體續約率為 89.7%，較第一季環比成長，但較去年同期的 [94.4%] 有所下降，符合預期。

Moving to Unum International, the segment continued to experience solid results. Adjusted operating income for the second quarter was $41.6 million compared to $42.5 million in the second quarter of 2024. Adjusted operating income for the Unum UK business was GBP29.4 million in the second quarter compared to GBP32.5 million in the second quarter of 2024.

轉向 Unum International，該部門繼續取得穩健的業績。第二季調整後營業收入為 4,160 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季為 4,250 萬美元。Unum 英國業務第二季調整後營業收入為 2,940 萬英鎊，而 2024 年第二季為 3,250 萬英鎊。

The results reflect underlying claims performance, including a benefit ratio of 75% compared to 69.5% a year ago. The change in benefit ratio was primarily due to inflation differences year over year, with the corresponding earnings offset reported in net investment income.

結果反映了基本的索賠表現，其中福利率為 75%，而一年前為 69.5%。福利比率的變化主要是由於通貨膨脹率與去年同期的差異，相應的收益抵消在淨投資收益中報告。

International premiums continued to show strong growth, supported by Unum UK persistency of 91.6%, a result higher than both the first quarter and the same period a year ago. Unum UK generated premium growth of 10% on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter, while our Poland operation grew 21.8%. The international business sales were $65 million compared to $67.9 million in the same period last year.

國際保費持續呈​​現強勁成長，這得益於 Unum UK 91.6% 的持續性，這一結果高於第一季和去年同期。Unum UK 第二季度的保費較去年同期成長 10%，而我們的波蘭業務成長了 21.8%。國際業務銷售額為 6,500 萬美元，去年同期為 6,790 萬美元。

Next, adjusted operating income for the Colonial Life segment of $117.4 million in the second quarter increased from $116.9 million in the second quarter of 2024, with the increase driven by premium growth of 3.6%. The benefit ratio of 48.3% compared to 47.8% in the year-ago period and similar to most core operations products was within our expected range provided in the outlook.

其次，Colonial Life 部門第二季的調整後營業收入為 1.174 億美元，高於 2024 年第二季的 1.169 億美元，這成長得益於保費成長 3.6%。殖利率為 48.3%，而去年同期為 47.8%，與大多數核心營運產品相似，在我們展望中給出的預期範圍內。

Premium income of $462.1 million compared to $446.2 million in the second quarter of 2024 was driven by higher levels of persistency and a growing trend we've seen in sales momentum, fueled by strong agent recruitment and productivity trends.

保費收入為 4.621 億美元，而 2024 年第二季為 4.462 億美元，這得益於更高的持久性以及我們看到的銷售勢頭的成長趨勢，這得益於強勁的代理商招募和生產力趨勢。

Sales in the second quarter of $126.5 million increased 2.9% from prior year, primarily driven by new account sales. We are very pleased with the top-line momentum at Colonial Life and its ability to produce strong returns, including an ROE of 18.6%.

第二季銷售額為 1.265 億美元，較上年成長 2.9%，主要受新帳戶銷售額的推動。我們對 Colonial Life 的營收成長勢頭及其產生強勁回報的能力感到非常滿意，其中包括 18.6% 的 ROE。

In the Closed Block segment, adjusted operating income of $3.9 million was significantly lower than last year's result of $24.4 million. The decrease was due primarily to unfavorable LTC benefits experience, primarily in cap cohorts, which drives higher levels of current period earnings volatility.

在封閉式區塊部門，調整後的營業收入為 390 萬美元，遠低於去年的 2,440 萬美元。下降的主要原因是 LTC 福利體驗不佳，尤其是上限群體，這導致當期收益波動性上升。

The LTC net premium ratio was 94.9% at the end of the second quarter of 2025, higher than the reported 93.7% in the same year-ago period due to experience as well as the assumption update in the third quarter of 2024. Sequentially, the NPR increased 20 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2025.

2025 年第二季末的 LTC 淨保費比率為 94.9%，高於去年同期報告的 93.7%，這是由於經驗以及 2024 年第三季的假設更新。與 2025 年第一季相比，NPR 連續增加了 20 個基點。

Breaking down the drivers of experience in the quarter, the majority of pressure was a result of higher average size of new claims and lower size of claimant mortality. Incidence counts continue to run above our longer-term expectations but were in line with our recent experience.

分析本季的經驗驅動因素，大部分壓力是由於新索賠的平均規模增加和索賠人死亡率下降造成的。發病率持續高於我們的長期預期，但與我們最近的經驗一致。

Annualized yield on the alternative asset portfolio was 7% and was slightly below the low end of our long-term expectation of 8% to 10% of returns. For the first half of 2025, the portfolio has generated a 6% annualized yield. Each percent of yield contributes approximately $14 million in annual earnings, most of which supports Closed Block liabilities.

另類資產組合的年化報酬率為 7%，略低於我們長期預期的 8% 至 10% 的低端。2025年上半年，該投資組合的年化報酬率為6%。每百分之一的收益率每年可帶來約 1,400 萬美元的收益，其中大部分用於支持封閉式債務。

Due to our actual earnings in the first half of the year and a revised view of alternative asset yields towards the lower end of our 8% to 10% long-term expectation for the second half, closed Block earnings are trending below the expectations we had entering the year. As such, we now expect full-year Closed Block earnings to be between $90 million and $110 million.

由於我們上半年的實際收益以及對下半年另類資產收益率的修正預期，使其接近我們長期預期的 8% 至 10% 的下限，因此封閉式區塊的收益趨勢低於我們年初的預期。因此，我們現在預計全年 Closed Block 收益將在 9,000 萬美元至 1.1 億美元之間。

Finally, we advanced our Closed Block strategy with the closing of the external reinsurance transaction on July 1. We continue to stay focused on actions that create value, reduce the footprint, and increase predictability of outcomes for the block. In terms of premium rate increases, we continue to make progress and have achieved approximately 60% of our current reserve expectation through the end of the second quarter.

最後，我們在 7 月 1 日完成了外部再保險交易，推進了封閉式區塊策略。我們將繼續專注於創造價值、減少足跡和提高街區結果可預測性的行動。在保費率上調方面，我們持續取得進展，截至第二季末已實現目前準備金預期的約60%。

Then wrapping up my commentary on the segment's financial results, the adjusted operating loss in the Corporate segment was $31.7 million compared to a $45.3 million loss in the second quarter of 2024, primarily driven by higher miscellaneous net investment income which we don't expect to recur. We expect quarterly losses in the Corporate segment to be in the mid-$40 million range for the remainder of the year.

然後總結我對該部門財務業績的評論，企業部門的調整後營業虧損為 3,170 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季的虧損為 4,530 萬美元，這主要是由於雜項淨投資收入增加，我們預計不會再次發生。我們預計今年剩餘時間內企業部門的季度虧損將在 4,000 萬美元左右。

Moving now to investments, we continue to see a good environment for new money yields and credit quality. Overall, miscellaneous investment income increased to $37.3 million compared to $35.4 million a year ago, as higher traditional bond call premiums offset lower alternative investment income.

現在轉向投資，我們繼續看到新資金收益率和信貸品質的良好環境。總體而言，雜項投資收入從一年前的 3,540 萬美元增加到 3,730 萬美元，因為更高的傳統債券贖回溢價抵消了較低的另類投資收入。

Income from our alternative invested assets was $25.3 million, representing a 7% annualized yield as previously discussed. As of the end of the second quarter, our total alternative invested assets were valued at $1.5 billion, with 45% in private equity partnerships, 37% in real asset partnerships, and 18% in private credit partnerships.

我們的另類投資資產的收入為 2,530 萬美元，相當於先前討論過的 7% 的年收益率。截至第二季末，我們的另類投資資產總額為 15 億美元，其中 45% 為私募股權合夥企業，37% 為實體資產合夥企業，18% 為私人信貸合夥企業。

Now let's move on to an update on our capital position. As expected, our capital levels remain well in excess of our targets and operational needs, offering tremendous protection and flexibility. The weighted average risk-based capital ratio for traditional US insurance companies increased to one of the highest levels we've seen at approximately 485%. And holding company liquidity remains robust at $2 billion.

現在讓我們來更新一下我們的資本狀況。正如預期的那樣，我們的資本水準遠遠超過我們的目標和營運需求，提供了巨大的保護和靈活性。美國傳統保險公司的加權平均風險資本比率升至我們所見過的最高水平之一，約為 485%。控股公司的流動性仍然保持強勁，達到 20 億美元。

Now that we have finalized the two LTC transactions announced earlier this year, we anticipate a year-end RBC of 425% to 450% and holding company liquidity between $2 billion and $2.5 billion, both in excess of our long-term targets. I will also add that dividends from our insurance subsidiaries are traditionally weighted towards the fourth quarter, which will change the geography of excess capital from risk-based capital to holding company cash as we close out the year.

現在我們已經完成了今年稍早宣布的兩項 LTC 交易，我們預計年底的 RBC 將達到 425% 至 450%，控股公司流動性將在 20 億美元至 25 億美元之間，均超過我們的長期目標。我還要補充一點，我們保險子公司的股利傳統上集中在第四季度，這將使我們在年底時將過剩資本的分佈從基於風險的資本轉變為控股公司現金。

This strong position also considers our intention to return capital to shareholders. In the second quarter, we paid $74.2 million in common stock dividends and repurchased $300 million of shares. Through the first half of 2025, we returned $500 million of capital through share repurchases, which puts us on a trajectory to finish the year towards the top end of our expectations of $500 million to $1 billion for full-year 2025.

這一強勢地位也反映了我們向股東返還資本的意願。第二季度，我們支付了7,420萬美元的普通股股息，並回購了3億美元的股票。到 2025 年上半年，我們透過股票回購返還了 5 億美元的資本，這使我們預計在年底實現 2025 年全年 5 億至 10 億美元的預期最高值。

Capital metrics in the second quarter continued to be supported by solid statutory after-tax operating income of $291.8 million for the second quarter or $781.6 million for the first half of the year. This does include approximately $130 million of reported statutory income that resulted from the internal long-term care restructuring we executed in February.

第二季的資本指標繼續受到穩健的法定稅後營業收入的支持，第二季為 2.918 億美元，上半年為 7.816 億美元。這確實包括我們 2 月實施的內部長期照護重組所產生的約 1.3 億美元的法定收入。

Considering where we are today, we've taken the opportunity to reexamine our outlook across all dimensions, including top line, margins, and capital. Starting with top line, while we feel confident in our ability to hit our 3% to 6% premium growth target for core operations, how we get there may look slightly different.

考慮到我們目前的狀況，我們藉此機會重新審視了各個方面的前景，包括營業收入、利潤率和資本。從營業收入開始，雖然我們有信心實現核心業務 3% 至 6% 的溢價成長目標，但實現這一目標的方式可能略有不同。

From a sales perspective, we are now anticipating relatively flat core operation sales in 2025, with varying considerations for each of our segments. Compensating for lower-than-expected sales growth is higher-than-expected levels of persistency throughout our businesses.

從銷售角度來看，我們目前預計 2025 年核心業務銷售額將相對持平，但對各部門的考量有所不同。彌補低於預期的銷售成長的是整個業務高於預期的持久性水準。

Moving to margins, through the first six months of 2025, we've seen our group disability benefit ratio of around 62%. While this is in line with our low 60s range, it is slightly above our internal planning expectations. Given recent stable levels of recoveries, we expect results to stay in the low 60% range and in line with the results seen throughout the first half of the year.

談到利潤率，到 2025 年上半年，我們的團體殘障福利比率約為 62%。雖然這與我們的 60 年代初期範圍一致，但略高於我們的內部規劃預期。鑑於近期復甦水平穩定，我們預計業績將保持在 60% 的低位，與今年上半年的業績保持一致。

Outside of group disability, we also have seen lower alternative investment income results. While the returns have improved sequentially, they are below our long-term 8% to 10% target. Despite the first-half results, we see the lower end of the target returns achievable for the second half of the year.

除了團體殘障保險之外，我們還看到另類投資收益結果較低。雖然回報率已連續改善，但仍低於我們 8% 至 10% 的長期目標。儘管上半年業績不錯，但我們認為下半年可達成的目標報酬率較低。

Lastly, while not a change to our outlook, with the long-term care transaction now closed, we will see a step down in supplemental and voluntary earnings power of approximately $10 million per quarter starting in the third quarter, representing the ceded individual disability income business.

最後，雖然這不會改變我們的前景，但隨著長期照護交易的結束，從第三季度開始，我們將看到補充和自願盈利能力每季度下降約 1000 萬美元，這代表著放棄的個人殘疾收入業務。

Considering all of this, we are now forecasting full-year earnings per share of approximately $8.50, with the quarterly run rate increasing as the year goes on, driven by the growth of our in-force book and the impact of share repurchases.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們現在預測全年每股收益約為 8.50 美元，隨著時間的推移，季度運行率將會增加，這主要得益於我們有效帳簿的成長和股票回購的影響。

As already mentioned, we are projecting holding company cash to finish the year in the $2 billion to $2.5 billion range, which now reflects settlement of the long-term care transaction and our expectation for increased share repurchase.

如同前面所提到的，我們預期控股公司現金將在年底達到 20 億至 25 億美元之間，這反映了長期照護交易的結算以及我們對增加股票回購的預期。

We are now anticipating that we will buy back stock at the top end of our $500 million to $1 billion range. We see significant value in buying back our stock, and we'll continue to do so to return capital to our shareholders.

我們現在預計將回購價值最高在 5 億美元至 10 億美元之間的股票。我們認為回購股票具有重大價值，我們將繼續這樣做，以向股東返還資本。

So to close, while we took the opportunity to refine our outlook based on first-half results, the underlying fundamentals of our business remains solid. Our core business continues to deliver on both top- and bottom-line trends, including continued premium growth of 4.6% and robust returns, including an ROE of 20.9%.

最後，雖然我們藉此機會根據上半年業績完善了我們的展望，但我們業務的基本面依然穩固。我們的核心業務繼續實現營收和利潤雙重成長，包括 4.6% 的持續保費成長和 20.9% 的 ROE 等強勁回報。

Our level of excess capital puts us in a position of strength and enables further flexibility to fund growth, return significant capital to our shareholders, and pursue further de-risking opportunities for long-term care. We remain encouraged and cautiously optimistic for what the rest of 2025 has in store.

我們的過剩資本水準使我們處於優勢地位，並使我們能夠進一步靈活地資助成長，向股東返還大量資本，並尋求進一步降低長期照護風險的機會。我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的前景保持樂觀和謹慎的態度。

Now I'll turn the call back to Rick for his closing comments, and I look forward to your questions.

現在我將把電話轉回給里克，請他發表最後評論，我期待你們的提問。

Great. Thank you, Steve. As we head to your questions, let me reiterate, we believe strongly in our strategic positioning and our business model. We have the capabilities and capital to deliver for our customers, expand our reach, and create increasing value for our shareholders.

偉大的。謝謝你，史蒂夫。在回答您的問題時，請允許我重申，我們堅信我們的策略定位和商業模式。我們擁有為客戶提供服務、擴大業務範圍並為股東創造更多價值的能力和資本。

So now let's move to the question-and-answer session. Jeannie, if you could start the Q&A.

現在讓我們進入問答環節。珍妮，你可以開始問答嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Mike Ward, UBS.

（操作員指示）瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Mike Ward。

Thank you. Good morning. On group disability, just hoping you guys could unpack the underlying drivers of the elevated claims and what you've seen that drove the change in guidance. And if you're seeing any of that continue into July?

謝謝。早安.關於團體殘疾，我只是希望你們能夠找出索賠增加的根本原因，以及你們所看到的推動指導方針改變的原因。您是否發現這種情況會持續到 7 月？

Great. Yeah, this is Steve. Mike, thanks for the question. And, yeah. So generally speaking, we continue to feel great about the margins on this block and the loss ratio. It is a little bit above our expectations that we had coming into the year. It's been pretty consistent with the first two quarters at 62%.

偉大的。是的，這是史蒂夫。麥克，謝謝你的提問。是的。因此，總體而言，我們仍然對這一區塊的利潤率和損失率感到滿意。這比我們今年的預期略高一些。這與前兩個季度的 62% 水準基本一致。

What I would do is refer back to -- last year, we did see recoveries that were a little bit higher than what our longer-term expectations might be, an incidence that was pretty favorable. So as we came into the year, we did think that we'd see a little bit of normalization there.

我想做的是回顧一下——去年，我們確實看到了比我們長期預期略高的復甦，這是一個相當有利的現象。因此，當我們進入新的一年時，我們確實認為我們會看到一點正常化。

And what we've really seen is recoveries have been a little bit below our expectations in 2025, but very stable kind of quarter to quarter. We have seen a little bit of elevation in our incidence. And really, it's kind of two stories.

我們實際看到的是，2025 年的復甦略低於我們的預期，但各季度之間非常穩定。我們發現發病率略有上升。事實上，這就像兩個故事。

In the first quarter, it's a little bit more related to count and a little bit more acute earlier in the quarter. That really has subsided in the second quarter. Now what we're seeing in the second quarter is a little bit higher-than-expected size of those new claims.

在第一季度，它與數量有更多關係，並且在本季度早些時候更為嚴重。這種情況在第二季確實有所消退。現在我們看到第二季新申請失業救濟人數略高於預期。

And as we look out the year and we're trying to set the outlook and set expectations, we think 62% is a pretty good anchor for that. But obviously, with this type of business, we may see some variability in both recoveries and new claims.

當我們展望今年並試圖設定前景和預期時，我們認為 62% 是一個相當不錯的基準。但顯然，對於這種類型的業務，我們可能會看到追償和新索賠方面存在一些變化。

But I feel like we have pretty stable experience for the first two quarters, relatively speaking, that we can use that kind of as in our anchors or going in the back half of the year. The other question, obviously, with just the claims performance itself, is just what's going on with pricing in this environment and the influence that that might have on the loss ratio.

但我覺得相對而言，我們在前兩個季度擁有相當穩定的經驗，我們可以將其用作錨點或下半年使用。顯然，就索賠表現本身而言，另一個問題是，在這種環境下定價情況如何，以及這可能對損失率產生什麼影響。

And so maybe, Chris, it's always good to just hit on what we're seeing in the markets right now.

所以，克里斯，也許關註一下我們現在在市場上看到的情況總是好的。

Yeah. Thanks, Steve. Good morning, Mike. Competitively, it's still a consistently competitive market. And we always expect to compete hard to make these deals come together. We would say where we can put capabilities together with the right prospect, we still find it to be a favorable environment.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。早上好，麥克。從競爭角度來看，這仍然是一個持續競爭的市場。我們始終期望透過激烈競爭來促成這些交易。我們會說，只要我們能夠將能力與正確的前景結合起來，我們仍然會發現這是一個有利的環境。

Obviously, sales were disappointing in the quarter. And Rick appropriately kind of outlined what we think the back half of the year is going to be. It's going to be big, but we did reset to be flat for core operations. Unum US will have the most headwind in that mix. But we're still looking hard to find plenty of prospects still out there in decision-making mode right now.

顯然，本季的銷售額令人失望。里克恰當地概述了我們對今年下半年前景的看法。它會很大，但我們確實將核心操作重置為平坦的。Unum US 將在這一組合中面臨最大的阻力。但我們仍在努力尋找目前仍處於決策模式的大量潛在客戶。

So inventory is there. And we've got with capabilities that are interesting relative to integration with tech platforms and lead management. So that's where we stand right now, and we're working hard in the back half of the year.

所以庫存就在那裡。我們擁有與技術平台整合和領導管理相關的有趣功能。這就是我們目前的狀況，我們正在為下半年的努力而努力。

Yeah. Mike, to kind of zoom into the current quarter a little bit as well, we don't really see kind of pricing actions being a material part of what we saw in the benefit ratio for the second quarter. And so we'll definitely just be monitoring the operational aspects of just the claim management as we go to the back half of the year.

是的。麥克，稍微放大一下當前季度的情況，我們確實沒有看到定價行為成為第二季度收益比率的重要組成部分。因此，在下半年，我們肯定會監控索賠管理的營運方面。

Great. Thanks, guys. And then on long-term care, just the lower claimant mortality. Do you see the current quarter result as truly a one-off or a normal volatility? Or is there anything about the remaining block or the health profile that could cause pressure to persist?

偉大的。謝謝大家。然後在長期照護方面，索賠人的死亡率較低。您是否認為本季的業績只是一次性現象，還是正常的波動？或剩餘的阻塞或健康狀況是否存在可能導致壓力持續存在的情況？

Yeah. So yeah, two important questions in there. So I'll focus just on what we saw in the second quarter. We actually saw the counts of new claims pretty consistent with what our expectations are. And I know that's been something -- obviously, that has been elevated here for a couple of years. That was pretty much in line with what our expectations were coming into the year.

是的。是的，這裡有兩個重要的問題。因此我將只關注第二季的情況。事實上，我們看到的新索賠數量與我們的預期相當一致。我知道這是一件大事——顯然，這已經在這裡提升了好幾年了。這與我們今年的預期基本一致。

And so you're right, there really was kind of an average size variability that we saw in the current quarter. It impacted, though, both new claims as well as those claims that terminate due to mortality. And just to kind of scope it out, that they were both about 5% off what our expectation would have been.

所以你說得對，我們在本季確實看到了某種平均規模的變化。然而，它既影響了新的索賠，也影響了因死亡而終止的索賠。只是為了大致了解一下，它們都比我們的預期低了約 5％。

And so we view that right now from what we're seeing as just volatility. They were pretty different than what we've seen here over the last several quarters. And so we wouldn't expect that to continue as we go into the back half of the year. As we were thinking about the outlook for Closed Block, which I noted, our reset outlook is somewhere between $90 million and $110 million for the full year.

因此，我們現在認為這只是波動性的。它們與我們過去幾季看到的情況截然不同。因此，我們預計這種情況不會在下半年繼續下去。正如我所指出的，當我們考慮 Closed Block 的前景時，我們重新設定的全年前景是在 9,000 萬美元至 1.1 億美元之間。

We did bring the annualized yield on the all portfolio down to that lower end of the 8% to 10% range. But we haven't really adjusted kind of the benefits performance for the back half of the year to any way, kind of put in less favorable benefits experience than we had anticipated coming into the year.

我們確實將所有投資組合的年化報酬率降至 8% 至 10% 範圍的下限。但我們並沒有真正調整下半年的福利表現，也沒有像我們預期的那樣，對今年的福利表現做出任何不利的調整。

So what we're seeing right now, we think it's an anomaly. But obviously, with this line of business, we're going to have to just see how it plays out for the back half of the year.

因此，我們認為現在看到的是一種異常現象。但顯然，對於這條業務線，我們只需要看看它在今年下半年的表現如何。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇、派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question, given the long-term care experience, just sticking with that first half of the year, how should we be thinking about the upcoming annual actuarial assumption with you?

早安.感謝您提供的機會。我的第一個問題是，鑑於長期照護經驗，僅堅持今年上半年，我們應該如何與您一起考慮即將到來的年度精算假設？

Yeah. On that, I would say, just to reground, we complete our GAAP assumption review in the third quarter and report out on that as we get to our third-quarter earnings review. And then we look at the statutory reserve adequacies we're going into the end of the year.

是的。關於這一點，我想說，為了重新奠定基礎，我們將在第三季完成我們的 GAAP 假設審查，並在第三季收益審查時報告這一點。然後我們來看看年底的法定儲備充足率。

So it's pretty early in that process. We'll take into account kind of all the experience that we've seen over the last several years as we update our experience set. But we're constantly looking at that. I'd make two points.

所以這個過程還處於相當早期的階段。在更新我們的經驗集時，我們會考慮到過去幾年我們累積的所有經驗。但我們一直在關注這一點。我想提出兩點。

One would just be about just reminding people around the $2.6 billion of protection that we feel we have within the long-term care balance sheet. So when we make adjustments to our best estimate for GAAP, we do have a lot of protection against that best estimate when it comes to our capital position. And then I would just say we're kicking that off right now. And we'll see how that plays out as the year plays out.

一是提醒人們，我們認為長期照護資產負債表中有 26 億美元的保障。因此，當我們對 GAAP 的最佳估計進行調整時，在資本狀況方面，我們確實對該最佳估計有許多保護措施。然後我想說我們現在就開始吧。我們將拭目以待，看看今年的情況將如何發展。

I will remind myself; I actually didn't answer all of Mike's next question. And just to get that point across about, with the deal, how did the experience we saw in the second quarter -- how does that impact the part that's reinsured versus the part that's remaining?

我會提醒自己；實際上我並沒有回​​答麥克的下一個問題的所有問題。為了清楚地說明這一點，對於這筆交易，我們在第二季度看到的經驗是怎樣的——這對再保險部分和剩餘部分有何影響？

And what I'd say is we really saw this experience across both parts of our book of business. It didn't really influence what's going to be remaining in our book versus what we reinsured kind of non-proportionately. So sorry, I didn't hit that, Mike.

我想說的是，我們確實在業務的兩個部分都看到了這種體驗。它實際上並沒有影響我們帳簿中剩餘的內容以及我們按不成比例再保險的內容。很抱歉，我沒有說到重點上，麥克。

Thanks for the answer, Steve, And then my other question around buyback. Given the excess capital position, how should we be thinking about sustainable free cash flow conversion at the company given completion of the transaction? Why not more buybacks? Or is just more about the sustainability of free cash flow conversion, not just one year?

謝謝你的回答，史蒂夫，然後我的另一個問題是關於回購。考慮到過剩的資本狀況，我們應該如何考慮交易完成後公司的可持續自由現金流轉換？為什麼不進行更多回購？或者只是關於自由現金流轉換的可持續性，而不僅僅是一年？

Thanks, John. It's Rick. Just to give you a sense of capital deployment and what's in context, I think about -- first, I'd just start off, capital generation is still very good.

謝謝，約翰。是瑞克。只是為了讓您了解資本部署和背景情況，我想——首先，我剛開始說，資本生成仍然非常好。

I think you saw $300 million of statutory in the quarter, coming off a really good first quarter. And as we've talked about, we still see very strong capital generation. That's obviously the key component of what you talked about in deployment and the free cash flow conversion.

我認為本季的法定收入為 3 億美元，這得益於第一季的良好表現。正如我們所討論的，我們仍然看到非常強勁的資本創造。這顯然是您在部署和自由現金流轉換中談到的關鍵組成部分。

When you think about where we want to put that cash, I mentioned a couple of deals that we did this quarter. That's immaterial. You won't see that in terms of utilization of that cash position. And then we get to how do we redeploy it back to our shareholders. Dividends, good. So 10% up on the dividend side. So $150 million through the first half of the year will be just over $300 million for the full year.

當你考慮我們要把現金投入到哪裡時，我提到了我們本季達成的幾筆交易。那不重要。從現金部位的使用率來看，你不會看到這一點。然後我們討論如何將其重新部署給我們的股東。股息，很好。因此股息增加了 10%。因此，今年上半年的 1.5 億美元相當於全年的 3 億美元多一點。

And then to your point around share repurchase and how we think about that, we've increased our outlook to the top end of the range of $500 million to $1 billion. And I'll just take you back a couple of years in terms of what that looked like. So you go back two years ago, we were looking at more than $500 million level.

然後關於您提到的股票回購以及我們對此的看法，我們已將預期提高到 5 億至 10 億美元的最高水平。我將帶您回顧幾年前的情況。回顧兩年前，我們當時的目標金額超過 5 億美元。

Last year, it actually was about $750 million from a run rate perspective, although we did do more because of some balance sheet restructuring that we did. And this year, we'll be at the top end of that $500 million to $1 billion range. And this is something we look at from a sustainable basis.

去年，從運行率的角度來看，實際上約為 7.5 億美元，儘管由於我們進行了一些資產負債表重組，我們的支出確實更多。今年，我們的營收將達到 5 億至 10 億美元的最高水準。這是我們以可持續的方式看待的事情。

We do have excess capital. We do have the ability to act on that, but that is where we'd like to sit right now is at that level. And so the opportunity is there. As we've said, we're going to be dynamic around share repurchase. And so when we see the opportunity to do there and as we continue to have very strong capital generation, we're not afraid to do what we think is right overall for increasing shareholder value.

我們確實有多餘的資本。我們確實有能力採取行動，但我們現在希望達到的水平就是這個水平。所以機會就在那裡。正如我們所說，我們將積極進行股票回購。因此，當我們看到機會並且我們繼續擁有非常強勁的資本創造能力時，我們就不會害怕做我們認為整體正確的事情來增加股東價值。

So hopefully, that gives a sense. This is something we're playing out over longer term. And you've seen that progression as you look over the last several years of how the increase in share repurchase has been good for our shareholders.

希望這能給你一些啟發。這是我們長期要做的事。回顧過去幾年，您會發現，股票回購的增加對我們的股東有利。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I guess, I wanted to come back just to disability and the updated guide for the second half of the year. You guys are looking for it to kind of be consistent with the first half. And so when you think about that, are you expecting the elevated persistency from the first quarter to persist or the severity that you guys saw in the second quarter?

你好，謝謝。早安.我想，我只是想回來討論殘疾問題和下半年的最新指南。你們希望它能與上半部保持一致。因此，當您考慮到這一點時，您是否預計第一季的持續性增強會持續下去，或者預計第二季的嚴重性會持續下去？

And then I'm also interested, right, if kind of 62% is level for this year, how should we think about kind of '26, beyond '25, just the loss ratio of the business as well?

然後我也很感興趣，如果今年的水準是 62%，那麼我們該如何考慮 26 年，以及 25 年以後的業務損失率呢？

Yeah. So maybe I'd just say, Elyse, I appreciate the question. And I'll just reiterate some of the things that Steve said. This is a very high-returning business even in the levels that we've seen thus far. So we're very happy about where that's been, the persistency level in this block, how it fits into the overall portfolio.

是的。所以也許我只想說，伊莉絲，我很感謝你的提問。我只想重申史蒂夫說過的一些話。即使以我們目前所見的水平來看，這也是一項回報非常高的業務。因此，我們對這一區塊的現狀、持久性水平以及它如何融入整體投資組合感到非常滿意。

And so I'll just reiterate that, first of all. And as we think about coming years, how we'll talk about that -- but, Steve, maybe you can give a little bit deeper context in terms of why we're thinking we are where we are and where we think we might go.

首先，我只想重申這一點。當我們思考未來幾年時，我們會如何談論這個問題——但是，史蒂夫，也許你可以提供一些更深入的背景信息，說明為什麼我們認為我們處於目前的境地以及我們認為我們可能走向何方。

Yeah. I kind of break apart the benefit ratio between what we're seeing with recoveries in the current year and then what we've seen with the incidence. Recoveries are pretty close to what we would have expected. And they are lower than what we saw last year. But last year, recoveries were very strong.

是的。我將效益比分為我們今年看到的恢復情況和發病率。復甦情況與我們的預期非常接近。而且它們比我們去年看到的要低。但去年，復甦非常強勁。

And it's part of the reason that we were operating kind of that high 50% benefit ratio last year. And we really raised our expectation coming into this year. And it was because we thought that recovery rates would come down a little bit. But they're pretty much right on top of what our expectation would have been and how we see that playing through.

這也是我們去年獲利率高達 50% 的原因之一。我們確實提高了對今年的期望。這是因為我們認為恢復率會稍微下降。但他們的表現基本上符合我們的預期，也符合我們的預期。

So we think that part of it is pretty sustainable, and that's built into kind of that 62% expectation for the back half of the year. Incidence is where it's been a little bit higher than what we would have thought coming into the year. In the first quarter, we had some kind of very early year count elevation within the benefit ratio. And then that came down in the second quarter. In the second quarter, it was more around average size.

因此，我們認為這部分成長相當可持續，並且已經考慮到了今年下半年 62% 的預期。今年的發生率比我們預想的要高一些。在第一季度，我們的獲利比率出現了年初以來的某種程度的成長。然後第二季的情況就出現了變化。在第二季度，其規模更接近平均。

And so there is a possibility that incidence will come down in the back half of the year. But as we're trying to set an outlook that have some reasonable assumptions, we thought it was just prudent to look at how it's performed for the first half of the year in the 62% range and just really carry that forward to the back half of the year to set that spot expectation for EPS for the full year.

因此，今年下半年發病率有可能下降。但是，當我們試圖設定一個具有合理假設的前景時，我們認為謹慎的做法是先看看今年上半年在 62% 範圍內的表現，然後將其延續到下半年，以設定全年每股收益的預期。

And then really beyond this year, we wouldn't see any reason for the operational performance to change longer term. But that's something we'll get into as we close out the year, see how the back half of the year performs, see how things are going just kind of from a commercial competitive environment. And then we'll kind of set expectations as we're going into 2026. But we don't see anything operationally right now that wouldn't be sustainable.

那麼，實際上，今年以後，我們不會看到任何導致營運績效長期變化的理由。但這是我們在年底時要討論的事情，看看下半年的表現如何，看看商業競爭環境的進展如何。然後，我們將對 2026 年設定一些期望。但就目前而言，我們並未發現任何不可持續的營運情況。

And I'll just reiterate that, Elyse, which is the team is doing a really good job of pricing on the front end of the business, good risk management, the claims manager of the teams that's actually able to do that, helping to get people back to work. That's all going very, very well.

我只想重申一下，伊莉絲，這個團隊在業務前端的定價、良好的風險管理方面做得非常好，團隊的理賠經理實際上能夠做到這一點，幫助人們重返工作崗位。一切都進展得非常非常順利。

And so it is that competitive dynamic, which is hard to predict in terms of what that looks like. But I would reiterate that where we stand today, the competitive environment has been reasonable. It's always competitive. People are always looking to grow their own piece of the business.

所以，這種競爭動態很難預測其具體是什麼樣子。但我想重申，就我們目前的情況而言，競爭環境是合理的。競爭總是激烈的。人們總是希望擴大自己的業務。

But what you look out for is somebody that comes into the market and actually is unreasonable in terms of how they price. We're not really seeing that. We think we're seeing good competition in the market today. And I think that bodes well for where this is going to go over the next couple of years.

但你需要警惕的是，某些進入市場的人的定價其實是不合理的。我們實際上並沒有看到這一點。我們認為現今市場競爭十分激烈。我認為這預示著未來幾年將會有好的發展。

Thanks. And then my second question, in the prepared remarks, you guys said you're committed, right, to further reducing your LTC exposure. And I know, right, when you announced the transaction, you said you guys were also potentially looking into other things. So can you just -- now that the deal's closed, just give us an update just on discussions relative to future transactions with the block?

謝謝。然後是我的第二個問題，在準備好的發言中，你們說過你們致力於進一步減少 LTC 風險。我知道，當你宣布交易時，你說你們也可能正在考慮其他事情。那麼，既然交易已經結束，您能否向我們介紹一下有關該區塊未來交易的討論進度？

Certainly. I think there's a couple of things that we did earlier in the year. One was actually the transaction, external reinsurance. We also did some internal structuring in the block, which I think was a good positive move for the enterprise.

當然。我認為我們今年早些時候做了一些事情。一個實際上是交易，外部再保險。我們也在區塊中做了一些內部結構調整，我認為這對企業來說是一個很好的積極舉措。

And then as we said then, as we'll say now, we're continuing to look at how we reduce the size of the footprint of LTC from an external perspective. And we continue to be active in the market. So that really didn't slow down with the transaction. We think this is something that, strategically, we want to continue to do. And we'll keep looking at that.

然後，正如我們當時所說的，正如我們現在所說的，我們將繼續從外部角度研究如何減少 LTC 的佔用空間。我們將繼續活躍於市場。因此交易速度確實沒有減慢。我們認為，從策略上來說，這是我們想要繼續做的事情。我們會繼續關注此事。

From a market perspective and how it is, I think it ebbs and flows. And so I think we're still in that period of time. As you've looked at three transactions that have happened externally now, I think that's a good thing overall for the market. So you're starting to see repeatability in these type of transactions.

從市場角度和現狀來看，我認為它會有起有落。所以我認為我們仍處於那個時期。正如你所看到的，現在已經發生的三筆外部交易，我認為這對市場來說總體來說是一件好事。因此，您開始看到此類交易的可重複性。

But they're very hard to do. And so I would just reiterate that we'll keep working hard at that. But the ability and the timing of when something will get done is very hard to predict.

但它們很難做到。因此，我只想重申，我們將繼續努力。但某件事能夠完成的能力以及完成的時間卻很難預測。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格（Ryan Krueger），KBW。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. First question was on the dynamics with more plans staying put with their existing carriers. I guess, maybe can you just give a little more color on why you think that's happening? Do you think it's more related to pricing and competitive dynamics? Or do you think it's more about uncertainty in the external environment and [plans] to not make changes right now?

嘿，謝謝。早安.第一個問題是關於更多計劃保留現有營運商的動態。我想，也許您能更詳細地解釋為什麼會發生這種情況嗎？您認為這與定價和競爭動態更相關嗎？或者您認為這更多的是因為外部環境的不確定性以及現在不做出改變的計劃？

Yeah, Ryan. It's Chris. Thanks for the question. You're right. We have seen -- we're the benefactors of it on our block, where some of the power sits with the incumbent carrier. And certainly, there are elements of people trying to protect their block. It's favorable right now and think -- and people want to make sure that they're putting together a fair deal.

是的，瑞安。是克里斯。謝謝你的提問。你說得對。我們已經看到──我們是這一領域的受益者，部分權力掌握在現任經營者手中。當然，也有人試圖保護自己的街區。目前情況很有利，而且人們希望確保達成一項公平的協議。

We're kind of leaders in that where we'll work customer by customer to show in a very transparent way what the loss ratios look like. Sometimes, cases need rate increase, and we share that. Other times, the rate reduction. We share that. Other times, you're setting price at the current for a longer-term, more stable type of environment.

我們是該領域的領導者，我們將與每個客戶合作，以非常透明的方式展示損失率。有時，案件需要提高費率，我們也會認同這一點。其他時候，利率會降低。我們也有同樣的感受。其他時候，您會根據當前情況設定價格，以適應長期、更穩定的環境。

That's always our goal. And I do think that right now, in the financials of the business, we've got some competitors who are probably doing some similar things around, trying to make sure that they're not losing customers that are generating a reasonable return.

這始終是我們的目標。我確實認為，目前，在業務財務方面，我們的一些競爭對手可能正在做一些類似的事情，試圖確保他們不會失去產生合理回報的客戶。

We still think that there are plenty of people out there prospects that do need help with either taking advantage of tech investments that they've made in platforms for their ecosystem and/or solving bigger problems like lead management. So it's still a dynamic environment.

我們仍然認為，有許多潛在客戶確實需要幫助，要麼利用他們在生態系統平台上進行的技術投資，要麼解決更大的問題，例如領導管理。所以它仍然是一個動態的環境。

We still have customers out there looking for solutions. We're creating our own luck there. So we intend to find enough to drive our second-half sales results and beyond. But I think you do point to some things relative to the competitive environment.

我們仍有客戶在尋找解決方案。我們正在那裡創造自己的運氣。因此，我們打算找到足夠的方法來推動我們下半年及以後的銷售表現。但我認為你確實指出了一些與競爭環境相關的事情。

They're a little bit different right now where the incumbent is favored. From a macro perspective, certainly, people are making their own decisions around what's on their plate for different elements in their industry. But to me, that's not the biggest driver. It's probably more localized.

目前情況有些不同，現任者更受青睞。從宏觀角度來看，人們當然會根據各自產業中不同要素的需求做出自己的決定。但對我來說，這並不是最大的驅動力。它可能更加本地化。

And, Ryan, I'd just maybe put a bow on that a little bit and just come back to our feeling for our premium growth outlook as this year plays out.

瑞安，我可能只是對此稍微做一點總結，然後回到我們對今年保費成長前景的看法。

And I mentioned in my remarks, we do think that the trajectory is going to look a little bit different as far as the contribution of sales versus the contribution of persistency. And so as we look out, though, we still feel really good about the outlook that we put out there for premium growth in our core operations.

我在我的評論中提到過，我們確實認為，就銷售額的貢獻和持久性的貢獻而言，軌跡會有所不同。因此，從長遠來看，我們仍然對我們核心業務的高端成長前景感到非常樂觀。

And we mentioned a couple of things. We'll have to adjust that for stop loss, obviously. And then there's part of the individual disability business that we ceded now for the back half of the year. But as we go into 2026, we still think we're going to have a really nice in-force premium coming out of the dynamics that we're seeing right now in the markets.

我們提到了幾件事。顯然，我們必須調整停損。此外，我們也將部分個人殘障業務轉移給今年下半年的公司。但隨著我們進入 2026 年，我們仍然認為，從目前在市場上看到的動態來看，我們將獲得非常好的有效溢價。

Yeah. And, Ryan, we're talking about specifically the group case. I think it would be helpful to go to Tim to talk about what's happening in the voluntary benefit space, both for the Unum brand as well as for Colonial Life. Tim?

是的。瑞安，我們正在具體討論集體案件。我認為與蒂姆討論自願福利領域正在發生的事情會很有幫助，無論是對於 Unum 品牌還是對於 Colonial Life 來說。提姆？

Yeah, specifically with respect to the question about persistency, we're seeing improved persistency for both Colonial Life and for Unum US, VB driving improved levels of premium growth and a little bit about the expectations.

是的，具體關於持久性的問題，我們看到 Colonial Life 和 Unum US 的持久性都在提高，VB 推動了保費增長水平的提高，並且有一些關於預期。

In addition, you think about persistency, you've at the employer level and also at the employee level for VB. And increasingly, we're seeing that the people who buy these products understand the value of them and want to keep them for longer periods of time.

此外，您要考慮持久性，對於 VB 來說，您既要考慮雇主層面的持久性，也要考慮員工層面的持久性。我們越來越多地看到，購買這些產品的人了解它們的價值，並希望保留更長時間。

As you think about premium growth also, we're very fortunate to have had double-digit growth on the Unum VB side over the last few years, with 10.3% growth in '23, 11.5% growth in '24, and about 14% growth in the first quarter of this year, which again drives premium growth.

當您考慮保費增長時，我們非常幸運，在過去幾年中，Unum VB 方面實現了兩位數的增長，23 年增長了 10.3%，24 年增長了 11.5%，今年第一季度增長了約 14%，這再次推動了保費的增長。

And then on the Colonial Life side, we're seeing a lot of really positive momentum in the leading indicators for sales, with recruiting of 31% in the quarter and sales from those new agents plus 34%. The sectors that we like a lot public sector, up 9% for the year, new sales up almost 10% for the year. And we're also having a good first half of the year from a large case perspective.

而在 Colonial Life 方面，我們看到銷售領先指標呈現出非常積極的勢頭，本季招募人數成長了 31%，新代理商的銷售額成長了 34%。我們非常看好的產業是公共部門，今年成長了 9%，新銷售額成長了近 10%。從大案例的角度來看，我們今年上半年的表現也不錯。

So excited about the momentum we're seeing on the Colonial Life side. Really pleased with the persistency results we're seeing driving premium growth above where we thought it might be at this point.

我們對 Colonial Life 方面所看到的勢頭感到非常興奮。我們對持續性結果感到非常高興，它推動保費成長超出了我們目前的預期。

And, Ryan, I have to bring international into the mix, too, with double-digit premium levels of growth. Mark Till, maybe you can give us some context in terms of what's happening in the markets around the world.

而且，瑞安，我還必須將國際業務納入其中，以實現兩位數的保費成長。馬克·蒂爾，也許您可以為我們介紹全球市場的情況。

Yeah, sure, Rick. Persistency has been very strong, a bit of a common story that both Tim and Chris talked about. So persistency in the UK is up about 1%. That's two levels that we haven't seen in quite a long time. And Poland is up 2%.

是的，當然，里克。堅持不懈的精神非常強，這是提姆和克里斯都談到的一個共同的故事。因此，英國的堅持率上升了約 1%。這是我們很久沒有見過的兩個關卡了。波蘭上漲了 2%。

We've seen core business sales being very strong in both countries, risen very nicely year on year. For example, the UK is up in low double-digit growth there. Large case in Poland has been very strong. Large case in UK has been a little down on last year.

我們看到這兩個國家的核心業務銷售都非常強勁，年成長非常可觀。例如，英國的經濟成長率達到兩位數。波蘭的大案一直非常強勁。英國的大型案件數量較去年相比略有下降。

The market can be a little bit more lumpy, and we did have a jumbo in quarter two that sort of hits the comparison to prior year. But I would say the pipeline in both countries is very strong at the moment. And we still feel that the guidance we gave at the start of the year for premium sales is a reasonable expectation for the international business.

市場可能會更加不穩定，與去年相比，第二季確實出現了大幅波動。但我想說，目前這兩個國家的管道都非常強大。我們仍然認為，我們年初給出的高端銷售指導對於國際業務來說是一個合理的預期。

Great. Thank you. Just a quick follow-up on long-term care. Do you -- I guess, what -- I know mortality was abnormal in the quarter. But at the same time, it does seem like overall mortality is improving in the population and for the insured businesses.

偉大的。謝謝。只是對長期照護的快速跟進。您是否—我想，我知道—本季的死亡率異常。但與此同時，人口和受保企業的整體死亡率似乎確實正在改善。

Like do you have any, I guess, concern or that part of this could just be related to broader improvements in mortality? Or I guess, what gives you confidence that that's not really what's going on, that it was more just of an abnormal quarter?

我想，您是否有任何擔憂，或者這部分可能僅與死亡率的更廣泛改善有關？或者我想，是什麼讓您確信事實並非如此，而只是一個異常的季度？

Yeah. The kind of variability that we saw in the quarter wasn't really due to counts. The counts were pretty consistent with what our expectations would have been. And that's been the case really for the last several quarters.

是的。我們在本季看到的這種變化實際上並不是由於數量造成的。計數結果與我們的預期非常一致。過去幾季的情況確實如此。

It was really more just about the size of those claims that terminated. And the way to think about that is really just richness of benefits. And so it tends to just be somewhat random on an individual basis. But over time, you usually kind of have lots of large numbers, where the average tends to be pretty consistent period to period.

這實際上只是與終止的索賠的規模有關。而思考這個問題的方式其實只是利益的豐富性。因此，從個人角度來看，這往往具有一定的隨機性。但隨著時間的推移，你通常會得到很多大數字，而平均值在不同時期往往相當一致。

But it just so happened this quarter, we had very, very low claim reserves on those claims that terminated. And a lot of times, that has to do with just the richness of benefits or just the duration of the claim itself. So we kind of view it as a bit of an aberration. But obviously, we need to see how that plays out in the coming quarters.

但本季恰巧發生了這樣的事情，對於已終止的索賠，我們的索賠準備金非常非常低。很多時候，這僅僅與福利的豐富程度或索賠本身的持續時間有關。因此我們認為這有點反常。但顯然，我們需要觀察未來幾季的情況。

I see. Okay. Thank you.

我懂了。好的。謝謝。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Good morning. I had a follow-up on LTC. I just wonder if you could give us an update on sort of where you're at with your last premium, I guess, pricing approvals from regulators, and maybe just how that's comparing with what you assumed in the reserves the last time you reviewed?

早安.我對 LTC 進行了跟進。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您上次保費的最新情況，我想，是監管機構的定價批准，以及與您上次審查時對儲備金的假設相比如何？

Yeah, things are going really well. I would say from a regulatory perspective, it continues to be a really nice environment. And I mentioned this in the past, but I think that whole process is really transitioned to be somewhat of an administrative process, where you just need to work with states, go through the process of submissions, answer questions.

是的，一切進展順利。我想說，從監管角度來看，這仍然是一個非常好的環境。我以前提到過這一點，但我認為整個過程實際上已經轉變為某種行政流程，你只需要與各州合作，完成提交流程，回答問題。

It's really turned more administrative than maybe what that looked like 10 years ago that it was a little bit more political. So we feel great about the environment. We're up to about 60% achievement of what's in the last kind of reserve adjustment that we took. So feel good about that. In this quarter, the GPV from approval is right around $90 million. So it was a good quarter.

與十年前相比，現在的行政化程度確實有所提高，甚至有些政治化。所以我們對環境感覺很好。我們上次進行的儲備調整已經實現了約 60% 的目標。所以對此感到高興。本季度，核准的 GPV 約為 9,000 萬美元。所以這是一個好的季度。

And it's been pretty stable as far as every quarter, making progress. And so I would say we feel really good about our progress against the reserve assumption at this point and good about just the general environment.

每個季度都相當穩定，並取得進展。因此我想說，我們對目前在儲備假設方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，對整體環境也感到非常滿意。

Got it. That's helpful. I know you guys provided a lot of commentary around like what kind of drove benefit ratios here and there.

知道了。這很有幫助。我知道你們對各種類型的效益比率提供了大量評論。

But I want to see if maybe you could talk more broadly about potential for medical cost inflation. We've seen it from a number of health insurers, I think a little more like Medicare and Medicaid, but even more recently, some of the commercial health stuff with United.

但我想看看您是否可以更廣泛地談論醫療成本上漲的可能性。我們已經從許多健康保險公司看到了這一點，我認為更像是醫療保險和醫療補助，但最近，還有一些與聯合保險公司的商業健康產品。

So I just wanted to see if you could kind of walk us through like -- are there areas of your business that you get impacted by that? And then I assume there are a lot of areas of your business that are much less impacted by that. Maybe you could frame that.

所以我只是想看看您是否可以向我們介紹一下——您的業務領域是否受到了影響？然後我認為您的業務的許多領域受此影響較小。也許你可以把它框起來。

Yeah, Alex, I appreciate the question. I actually say in general, we are not very impacted across the board in terms of what's happening from a medical inflation perspective. If you think about our benefits -- and I'll just talk about life insurance -- it's going to be what happens. Disability insurance is really about somebody's wages, not about what the cost of care looks like.

是的，亞歷克斯，我很感謝你的提問。實際上，總的來說，從醫療通膨的角度來看，我們並沒有受到太大的影響。如果你考慮我們的福祉——我只會談論人壽保險——它就會發生。殘障保險實際上與某人的工資有關，而不是與護理費用有關。

And even as you get into the long-term care business, we're indemnity-based business. So it's a fixed benefit level. So in general, yes. I don't know, Chris, if there's anything else that we've highlighted that we're watching.

即使您進入長期照護業務，我們也是基於賠償的業務。所以這是一個固定的福利水準。總的來說，是的。克里斯，我不知道我們是否還強調了我們正在關注的其他事情。

Yeah. Thanks, Rick. Alex, it's an interesting point. I would say just some of the things we don't always talk about are just the quality of our claims organization and the work they do behind the scenes.

是的。謝謝，里克。亞歷克斯，這是一個有趣的觀點。我想說的是，我們通常不談論的一些事情就是我們的索賠組織的品質以及他們在幕後所做的工作。

Our medical cost isn't really our big issue. But we do do a great job of making sure that if people on plan get the right care and that they're on the right treatment plan, that improves outcomes. So we're tied to medical in that way, but not so much in terms of the cost of care. So I think that it's an interesting point, though.

我們的醫療費用其實並不是大問題。但我們確實做得很好，確保如果計劃中的人得到正確的護理並且他們採用正確的治療計劃，那麼就會改善結果。因此，從這個方面來說，我們與醫療的連結很緊密，但在照護成本方面，我們的連結卻不那麼緊密。所以我認為這是一個有趣的觀點。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Tom Gallagher, Evercore ISI.

湯姆·加拉格爾，Evercore ISI。

Good morning. First, just one on long-term care, and then I have a disability follow-up. So I guess, the -- since the last time you did your actuarial review, the incidence trends or inventory, whatever you want to call it, continues to be somewhat above long-term expectations. Is there a risk you now make that permanent?

早安.首先，僅介紹長期護理，然後介紹殘疾後續情況。所以我猜，自從你上次進行精算審查以來，發病率趨勢或庫存（無論你想怎麼稱呼它）仍然略高於長期預期。現在您是否有讓這種情況永久化的風險？

Because I think the expectation is by now, that would have improved. And it sounds like it still hasn't improved. And so I guess, my question is, is that directionally right? And if so, it sounds like from the way you framed it, that it would be a GAAP-only charge pretty unlikely to have any statutory impact given this considerable buffer you have in Fairwind. But any -- that's my first question.

因為我認為現在的預期是，情況會有所改善。聽起來情況似乎仍未改善。所以我想，我的問題是，這個方向正確嗎？如果是這樣，從您闡述的方式來看，這將是一項僅基於 GAAP 的費用，考慮到 Fairwind 中相當大的緩衝，不太可能產生任何法定影響。但任何——這是我的第一個問題。

Yeah, Tom, I'm not going to preview kind of any results from the reserve adequacy work this year. That's ongoing. We'll report on that as we get to the third quarter. I would say there was really nothing new in the second quarter that would be different than maybe some of the elevation of accounts that we've seen prior to that.

是的，湯姆，我不會預覽今年儲備充足率工作的任何結果。這仍在進行中。我們將在第三季報告此事。我想說的是，第二季確實沒有什麼新變化，與我們之前看到的一些帳戶成長有所不同。

And so we'll take that into account as well as all of the rest of our data set as we go into that. So don't take any of my comments for saying that we might have an impact here, but not there. We'll take it all into account as we're looking at our best estimate reserve, which is really what our GAAP reserves are based on.

因此，當我們深入研究該問題時，我們會將這一點以及我們所有其他數據集都考慮在內。所以，不要把我的任何評論理解為我們可能在這裡有影響，但在那裡沒有影響。在評估最佳估計儲備金時，我們會將所有這些都考慮在內，而這實際上也是我們的 GAAP 儲備金所依據的。

My only point is if there was some sort of adjustment there, we continue to have a significant buffer when it comes to the margins that we have in our statutory reserves. And we just feel really good about that and really good about statements that we've made just around capital deployment in the past -- behind LTC. And that buffer remains. So that was my only point there, but really no preview of results of the reserve assumption review.

我唯一的觀點是，如果進行某種調整，我們的法定儲備金利潤率仍將保持相當大的緩衝。我們對此感到非常高興，並且對我們過去在 LTC 背後的資本部署方面所做的聲明感到非常高興。並且該緩衝區仍然存在。這是我唯一的觀點，但實際上並沒有預測儲備假設審查的結果。

Okay. That's fair, Steve. The -- and my follow-up is just on the disability loss ratio. I guess, I heard what you responded to with Elyse's question that it sounds like stable operational performance beyond 2025. But I guess, my question is 62% is still 13 points better than pre-pandemic levels. When I compare you to peers, I think the best-in-class peer is around 10 points better.

好的。這很公平，史蒂夫。我的後續問題是關於殘疾損失率。我想，我聽到了您對 Elyse 的問題的回答，聽起來 2025 年以後的營運表現會很穩定。但我想，我的問題是 62% 仍然比疫情前的水平高出 13 個百分點。當我將你與同齡人進行比較時，我認為班上最優秀的人比你高出大約 10 分。

I hear what you're saying. But at the same time, I think you've had so much better accounting improvement than peers that it's a little hard for us from the outside to say stable -- 62% is the right level. I mean, 65% would still be a pretty good outcome and a good ROE.

我聽到了你所說的話。但同時，我認為你們的會計改進比同行好得多，因此從外部來看我們很難說你們是穩定的——62% 是正確的水平。我的意思是，65% 仍然是一個相當好的結果和一個好的 ROE。

So I don't know. Can you help frame that a little bit more? Like is 62% possibly continuing to drift higher here? Or do you feel like, for whatever reason and maybe it's claim recovery, 62%, it really is the right number for you, even though it's better than peers?

所以我不知道。您能幫忙進一步闡述嗎？例如 62% 是否可能繼續走高？或者您覺得，無論出於什麼原因，也許是索賠回收率 62%，這確實是適合您的數字，儘管它比同行要好？

Yeah. I kind of get back to -- we do think we have best-in-class operations and the capabilities that we have to manage claims. So we don't really compare ourselves to competitors. We look at what we're doing within our four walls, and we know why we've had that improvement. We can see it in the improvements in our operational areas.

是的。我有點回想起來——我們確實認為我們擁有一流的營運和管理索賠的能力。所以我們實際上不會將自己與競爭對手進行比較。我們審視自己在公司內部所做的事情，並且知道為什麼我們已經取得了這樣的進步。我們可以從營運領域的改進中看到這一點。

And so that gives us confidence that the level of recoveries that we're seeing right now, that those are sustainable. And so, again, these are businesses that carry on over years, and so we're not predicting things years ahead of time. But as we look out over the medium term here, we feel pretty good about the sustainability of the results we're getting out of our claims management.

因此，這讓我們有信心，我們目前看到的復甦水準是可持續的。所以，這些業務會持續多年，所以我們無法提前幾年進行預測。但從中期來看，我們對索賠管理所取得成果的可持續性感到非常滿意。

And maybe I just want to comment. In terms of -- again, the way we are selling to customers, the way we're tying into their ecosystem and managing things like leave, price is still an important part of the discussion. But it's not what it was years back, where in a lot of ways, price was the first and the primary thing we talked about.

也許我只是想發表評論。就我們向客戶銷售的方式、我們融入他們的生態系統的方式以及管理休假等事務而言，價格仍然是討論的重要部分。但現在與幾年前的情況不同了，那時在很多方面，價格是我們首先討論的也是主要討論的問題。

There's much more kind of connectivity into their ecosystem, much more problem-solving. And that gives us a little bit of capacity to get a fair return and work things through. And I think that shows up in the analysis that Steve just shared.

他們的生態系統擁有更多種類的連接，能夠解決更多問題。這給了我們一點能力來獲得公平的回報並解決問題。我認為這體現在史蒂夫剛才分享的分析中。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Joel Hurwitz, Dowling.

喬爾·赫爾維茨，道林。

Hey, good morning. I just want to go back to Colonial Life real quick. Tim, can you provide some good metrics on recruiting and overall momentum? I guess, do you see a path for sales to improve to your 5% to 10% growth target for '25 at this point?

嘿，早安。我只想盡快回到殖民生活。提姆，你能提供一些關於招募和整體動能的良好指標嗎？我想，您現在是否認為銷售額有希望達到您 25 年 5% 到 10% 的成長目標？

Hey, Joel. Thanks for the question. We actually do. We've said all along that we thought momentum would build throughout the year. We brought in a new head of sales in the fourth quarter of last year. She and her team did a really nice job of getting us back to the point of really heavily focusing on the fundamentals, focusing on the consistent execution of the business plan.

嘿，喬爾。謝謝你的提問。我們確實這麼做了。我們一直說，我們認為這一勢頭將在全年不斷增強。我們去年第四季聘請了一位新的銷售主管。她和她的團隊做得非常好，讓我們重新真正專注於基本面，並專注於商業計劃的持續執行。

You heard some of the metrics we shared earlier. One other metric I didn't share is that for people who have joined Colonial Life in 2023, '24, the first half of '25, their sales are up collectively 16.3%. And so we are seeing some pretty broad-based success right now.

您聽到了我們之前分享的一些指標。我沒有分享的另一個指標是，對於 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年上半年加入 Colonial Life 的人來說，他們的銷售額總體增長了 16.3%。因此，我們現在看到了一些相當廣泛的成功。

And for the areas where we still have a little bit of softness, Ashley and her team are really heavily focused on that. So our plan is to continue to see that momentum build over the second half of the year. And we think we have a shot at getting to the lower end of the range.

而對於我們仍然存在一些弱點的領域，Ashley 和她的團隊確實非常重視這些領域。因此，我們的計劃是在今年下半年繼續保持這種勢頭。我們認為我們有機會達到該範圍的較低端。

Great. And then shifting gears, back when you guys announced the LTC transaction, you had noted that the deal created some further excess capital within Fairwind that could potentially be dividended out. Would the transaction now close? Where do you stand on potentially extracting capital from Fairwind?

偉大的。然後換個話題，當你們宣布 LTC 交易時，你們就注意到這筆交易在 Fairwind 內部創造了一些額外的過剩資本，這些資本有可能被分紅。交易現在能結束嗎？您對從 Fairwind 撤資的可能性有何看法？

Yeah. I don't think our view has really changed at this point. We've generated about $200 million of released capital down in Fairwind. That's built into our $2.6 million or [$2.6 billion] of protection down in Fairwind.

是的。我認為我們的觀點目前並沒有真正改變。我們在 Fairwind 釋放了約 2 億美元的資本。這已包含在我們在 Fairwind 的 260 萬美元或 [26 億美元] 保護措施中。

So at this point, we're not -- we haven't really made a decision if we're going to leave it there or not. And that's something we'll contemplate as we're wrapping up the year and thinking about just overall capital deployment for the organization. So no news there, I'd say.

因此目前，我們還沒有真正決定是否要將其留在那裡。這是我們在今年年底時會考慮的事情，並考慮組織的整體資本部署。所以我想說，那裡沒有新聞。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

Hey, thank you. Good morning. So on LTC, you obviously closed a pretty significant transaction. But in the months, I guess, since you've announced that deal, has there been any change in the risk transfer landscape, whether that's new counterparties or any other changes? And I guess, relatedly, do you have any insight into the appetite for global reinsurers to want to take additional biometric risk like this deal was structured?

嘿，謝謝你。早安.因此，在 LTC 上，你顯然完成了一筆相當重要的交易。但我想，自從你們宣布這項交易以來的幾個月裡，風險轉移格局是否發生了任何變化，無論是新的交易對手還是其他變化？我想，與此相關的是，您是否了解全球再保險公司願意承擔額外生物辨識風險的興趣，就像這筆交易的結構一樣？

Yeah, I appreciate the question, Wes. I mentioned it a little bit earlier, but I would just say this is a market which has ebbed and flowed a little bit.

是的，我很感謝你提出這個問題，韋斯。我之前提到過一點，但我只想說這是一個有點起伏的市場。

I think the news of three different transactions probably has more people interested on what the dynamics are. And as we've said, this was a very good deal for us, but also a good deal for our reinsurance -- our two reinsurance counterparties that did the deal. And so people have interest and are certainly kicking the tires of the market.

我認為三筆不同交易的消息可能會引起更多人對其動態的興趣。正如我們所說，這對我們來說是一筆非常好的交易，對我們的再保險——達成這筆交易的兩家再保險交易對手來說也是一筆好交易。因此人們對此很感興趣並且肯定會對市場進行探索。

But this is one of the things that people come into it. It takes a lot of work on the counterparty side to do their work to understand the dynamics of the liability profile, the investment profile, required behind the block. And so it takes a lot of work.

但這是人們參與其中的事情之一。交易對手方需要做大量的工作來了解區塊背後所需的負債狀況和投資狀況的動態。所以這需要大量的工作。

So I think every time you see a transaction, it garners more interest because people are trying to understand what's happening. How that lasts, hard to tell. But I think more transactions are -- is a good thing. And they all have a little bit -- the ones we see in the market have a little bit different dynamic to each of them.

所以我認為每次你看到一筆交易，它都會引起更多的興趣，因為人們試圖了解正在發生的事情。這種情況會持續多久，很難說。但我認為更多的交易是件好事。它們都有一點——我們在市場上看到的每一個都有一點不同的動態。

That's a good thing. And so I think we'll continue to give more interest, as you've seen in other reinsurance markets developed around other liability profiles. So it's constructive, but we've got continued work to do and certainly playing this for longer term as well.

這是一件好事。因此我認為我們將繼續給予更多關注，正如您在圍繞其他責任狀況發展的其他再保險市場中所看到的那樣。所以這是有建設性的，但我們還需要繼續努力，而且肯定還要長期堅持下去。

Got it. Thanks, Rick. And maybe just one follow-up and maybe a little more technical in LTC. But on the net premium ratio, Steve, is there any way you can help us understand the movement just in the quarter? It only ticked up 20 basis points, but there was some unfavorable experience in the capped cohort.

知道了。謝謝，里克。也許只需要一個後續行動，也許在 LTC 方面會更加技術化。但是就淨保費比率而言，史蒂夫，您有什麼方法可以幫助我們了解本季的變動情況嗎？它只上漲了 20 個基點，但在有上限的群體中卻有一些不利的經驗。

So I guess, I'm just trying to understand, is the movement in the NPR going forward -- is that going to be more dependent on performance of the uncapped cohorts? If that question makes any sense. But just hoping to get a little bit of color on the movement there.

所以我想，我只是想了解，NPR 的動向是否會進一步發展——是否會更依賴無上限群體的表現？如果這個問題有意義的話。但我只是希望能夠對那裡的運動有所了解。

Yeah. I mean, the way to think about it is the benefits experience that we look at is in multiple cohorts. Each of those kind of that unfavorable experience, it's going to articulate itself differently. And so what you would see is on the capped cohorts, that's going to come through earnings more directly because there's really no buffering impact on those.

是的。我的意思是，我們應該這樣思考：我們所關注的福利體驗存在於多個群體中。每一種不利的經驗都會以不同的方式表達出來。因此，您會看到，對於有上限的群組來說，這將更直接地透過收益體現出來，因為實際上對這些群組沒有緩衝影響。

And then on the other cohorts, that will come through the change in NPR. And in essence, a portion of that get buffered into the reserve itself. The current period experience that we saw was really across both capped and uncapped. So you would have seen unfavorable earnings results in the period, but also a little bit of an uptick in the NPR.

對於其他群體來說，這將透過 NPR 的變化來實現。從本質上講，其中一部分被緩衝到儲備金本身。我們看到的當前時期的經驗確實涵蓋了有上限和無上限的情況。因此，您會看到該時期的盈利結果不佳，但 NPR 也會略有上升。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Wes.

謝謝，韋斯。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特‧卡馬斯（Suneet Kamath），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Great. Thanks. I wanted to come back to the buybacks for a second. And, Rick, I appreciate the fact that you guys have been increasing your level of annual buybacks. But the other thing that's been happening is the excess capital has been increasing as well.

偉大的。謝謝。我想再談一下回購問題。里克，我很感激你們不斷提高年度回購水準。但發生的另一件事是過剩資本也在增加。

And based on your prepared remarks, it sounds like you could end the year $2 billion to $2.5 billion of holdco cash, which is even more than where you thought when you gave your 2025 plan. So I guess, the question is, why not lean in a little bit more than the $1 billion, especially since you got the additional $630 million from the reinsurance -- sorry, the LTC restructuring?

根據您準備好的發言，聽起來您到年底的控股公司現金可能會達到 20 億至 25 億美元，這比您提出 2025 年計劃時預想的還要多。所以我想，問題是，為什麼不投入比 10 億美元多一點的資金呢，特別是因為你從再保險（抱歉，是 LTC 重組）中獲得了額外的 6.3 億美元？

Yeah, it's a fair question, Suneet. And we don't minimize that returning capital to shareholders is an important part of our overall construct and our value proposition. And so we do think about it. We've said we'd be dynamic.

是的，這是一個公平的問題，Suneet。我們不會低估向股東返還資本是我們整體結構和價值主張的重要組成部分。所以我們確實考慮了這一點。我們說過我們會充滿活力。

I think as we look at where we are today and given the performance and closure of the LTC transaction, to move to the top end of our range going to the year is appropriate. But it's something that we'll always look at in terms of the pace and how we look at it.

我認為，當我們回顧今天的狀況並考慮到 LTC 交易的表現和結束情況時，將價格移至今年範圍的上限是合適的。但我們會始終關注此事的進展速度和看待方式。

And all your facts are right. I mean, the generation has been good. We had even some excess generation with reinsurance earlier in the year. We put that into our outlook and then the ability to buy back shares. So your facts are right, something we'll evaluate and continue to talk to the market about. But this is where we see things right now.

您的所有事實都是正確的。我的意思是，這一代人表現得很好。今年早些時候，我們甚至透過再保險實現了部分過剩發電。我們將其納入我們的展望中，然後考慮回購股票的能力。所以您的事實是正確的，我們會對此進行評估並繼續與市場討論。但這就是我們現在看到的情況。

Okay. Got it. And then I guess, just to follow up on Wes' question about the cohorts, have you guys told us if any of the capped cohorts are part of the Fortitude transaction or kind of what the mix is? I don't know if you've gotten into that level of detail.

好的。知道了。然後我想，只是為了跟進韋斯關於隊列的問題，你們有沒有告訴我們是否有任何上限隊列是 Fortitude 交易的一部分，或者是混合的？我不知道您是否已經了解了這種細節。

We haven't. We haven't. That's not something that we've really dug into. What I will say is -- and I mentioned this earlier -- the impact of the current period experience was pretty much split amongst the remaining business and the ceded business somewhat on a relative basis. So it pretty much cut across those cohorts equally, I would say.

我們沒有。我們沒有。這不是我們真正深入研究過的事情。我要說的是——我之前提到過——當前期間經驗的影響在剩餘業務和轉讓業務之間相對而言基本有所分配。所以我想說，它對這些群體的影響幾乎是平等的。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets.

傑克‧馬滕 (Jack Matten)，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, good morning. I think earlier, you talked about persistency being several points higher on cases with HR Connect. Are you able to say like roughly what percent of your customers have the kind of integration and how that's changed over time?

嗨，早安。我認為之前您談過，使用 HR Connect 的案例的持久性要高出幾分。您能否大致說一下有多少比例的客戶擁有這種集成，以及這種集成隨著時間的推移發生了怎樣的變化？

I'm just wondering do you think competitors have similar offerings that are also helping with persistency on their side and maybe contributing to some pressure on new business opportunity for Unum?

我只是想知道，您是否認為競爭對手也有類似的產品，這些產品是否也能幫助他們保持持久性，並可能給 Unum 的新業務機會帶來一些壓力？

Yeah, Jack, it's Chris. It's a good question, and we certainly have seen that kind of -- Rick mentioned in the kind of his initial comments that we've seen nice persistency spread when we do have capabilities in mind. Before I get to kind of the block, there certainly are competitors who are looking to respond to some of the connection points that we've got out there.

是的，傑克，我是克里斯。這是個好問題，我們當然已經看到了這種情況——里克在他最初的評論中提到，當我們確實考慮到能力時，我們已經看到了良好的持久性傳播。在我談到障礙之前，肯定有一些競爭對手正在尋求對我們現有的一些連接點做出反應。

What I would say is that that is a multiyear kind of process, getting to really understand these ecosystems, understanding what connections look like, understanding what type of prospects really fit well. It's something that we've been at for literally five to seven years. And it's been a wonderful learning process, and we continue to get better at it.

我想說的是，這是一個多年的過程，需要真正了解這些生態系統，了解聯繫是什麼樣的，了解什麼類型的前景真正適合。我們已經從事這個工作五到七年了。這是一個非常棒的學習過程，我們會不斷進步。

And we would expect to continue to see the more customers we put into these situations, it's good for all aspects of our business. Without giving percentages -- because we really do have a multipronged strategy in terms of how we're making investments, not only in tech and platforms, both up and down market sizes, but also lead management.

我們期望看到更多的客戶進入這些情況，這對我們業務的各個方面都有好處。我們不給出百分比——因為我們在投資方面確實有一個多管齊下的策略，不僅在技術和平台上，在市場規模上，也在領導管理上。

Without getting into exact percentages, I will say it's very logical to think that more and more of our sales have these connection points. And a larger and larger part of our block has these contention points. So over time, we'll continue to be a bigger part of the story.

無需考慮確切的百分比，我可以說，有理由相信，我們的銷售中越來越多的人擁有這些連接點。我們街區中越來越多的部分都存在著這些爭用點。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續在故事中扮演更重要的角色。

That's helpful. Thank you. And maybe a follow-up. In the US business, I mean, you've been seeing kind of a lower run rate for net investment income. I think it's given a lower invested asset base. Is that a trend we should think about continuing? Or could we see that eventually reverse at some point in the coming quarters?

這很有幫助。謝謝。或許還有後續行動。我的意思是，在美國業務中，您會看到淨投資收入的運作率較低。我認為這是鑑於較低的投資資產基礎。我們是否應該考慮繼續這種趨勢？或者我們會看到這種情況在未來幾季的某個時候最終會逆轉？

Yeah, it's Steve. You're right. I mean, it's really driven by lower assets behind the liabilities, mostly driven by the great performance that we've seen in our group disability business. So that's a good thing, but it does reduce the asset base to generate investment income.

是的，是史蒂夫。你說得對。我的意思是，這實際上是由負債背後的資產減少所推動的，主要是由於我們在團體殘疾業務中看到的出色表現所推動的。這是一件好事，但它確實減少了產生投資收益的資產基礎。

It feels like that should be pretty stable from what we're just seeing going forward. And I think that's indicative of kind of where the overall benefit ratio is for the group disability business. Those are somewhat linked with trends that we see in new incidence and recoveries, and that's pretty stable.

從我們目前看到的情況來看，這應該是相當穩定的。我認為這顯示了團體殘障業務的整體福利比率。這些與我們在新發病率和復原率中看到的趨勢有一定聯繫，而且相當穩定。

So I anticipate that being relatively stable. You're always going to have a yield differential as new yields come into the portfolio. But I think that's probably the right way to think about it.

所以我預計它會相對穩定。當新的收益進入投資組合時，你總是會有一個收益差異。但我認為這可能是正確的思考方式。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

Very good morning. So I had questions around sort of the same topics that have been discussed through the call, but maybe with a slightly different angle. On disability, everybody's margins have been good. Yours have been good as well. And obviously, everybody has got a different level of what normalized is.

早安.因此，我的問題與電話會議中討論的話題大致相同，但角度可能略有不同。在殘疾問題上，每個人的利潤都很好。你的情況也很好。顯然，每個人對標準化的理解程度都不同。

But it seems like what some of your peers have been saying is that the market's still disciplined, but getting a little bit more competitive. And in some cases, prices are coming down, maybe down a little bit less than how favorable experience has been, but down nonetheless.

但似乎有些同行一直在說，市場仍然有紀律，但競爭變得更激烈了。在某些情況下，價格正在下降，也許下降幅度比以往的有利經驗要小一些，但無論如何還是下降了。

And that's also contributing to margins declining a little bit, but still staying pretty strong. Are you seeing that also? Or is your view of the competitive environment different than what I just described?

這也導致利潤率略有下降，但仍保持相當強勁。您也看到了嗎？或者您對競爭環境的看法與我剛才描述的不同？

Yeah, Jimmy, it's Chris. I'll go back to kind of our comments around feeling good about being on track for premium and how the -- in the quarter, the mix of persistency and sales was a little bit different than we might have thought going into it. And we'll always be thoughtful, and we're fully engaged in the market.

是的，吉米，我是克里斯。我將回顧我們對高端產品發展前景感到滿意的評論，以及本季持久性和銷售額的組合與我們想像的略有不同。我們將始終深思熟慮，並全力投入市場。

So we're looking at opportunities from a new business perspective. And with a disciplined approach, we're aggressively going after those. And then also looking at retaining current customers and making sure that we understand what the dynamics out there. Again, where there are capabilities, we have a little less pressure on price, which is helpful.

因此，我們從新的商業視角來尋找機會。我們會採取嚴謹的方法，積極地追求這些目標。然後也要考慮留住現有客戶並確保我們了解當前的動態。再說一次，只要有能力，我們的價格壓力就會小一些，這是有幫助的。

And we'll make a decision on how to hold the line there. In this quarter, I think the mix of hitting premium targets was more favorable around keeping a few more customers. And that does speak to the competitive environment of what's out there. But I wouldn't go too far with any major shifts in the competitive environment outside of what we've talked about before.

我們將決定如何守住這條防線。在本季度，我認為實現高端目標的組合對於留住更多客戶更為有利。這確實反映了當前的競爭環境。但除了我們之前討論過的內容之外，我不會對競爭環境的任何重大變化做太多評論。

Yeah. And fair to say if you have to be a little bit more competitive to keep some business, you would given how good your results are, right? And so less business coming to market partly is a function of everybody's margins being very strong as well and then being -- trying to protect the business and keep it enforced, correct?

是的。公平地說，如果您必須更具競爭力才能保持一些業務，那麼考慮到您的業績有多好，您會這樣做的，對嗎？因此，進入市場的業務減少，部分原因是每個人的利潤率都非常高，然後——試圖保護業務並保持其執行，對嗎？

Yeah. I think that's certainly an element of it. I think we're seeing enough in market. That's the good news. And part of that, we want to continue to improve our ability to make our capabilities known to the right type of prospects, so we can keep the pipeline full, not just to people out for a market check.

是的。我認為這當然是其中一個因素。我認為我們在市場上已經看到足夠多的情況了。這是個好消息。其中一部分是，我們希望繼續提高我們的能力，讓合適的潛在客戶了解我們的能力，這樣我們就可以保持管道暢通，而不僅僅是向那些出去進行市場檢查的人開放。

Because I think that dynamic you talked about, Jimmy, it does show up when someone goes out for a market check. And you'll get people who are willing to kind of think about dropping rates just to become attractive to a customer.

因為我認為，吉米，你談到的動態，在有人出去進行市場檢查時確實會出現。你會發現有人願意考慮降低價格，只是為了吸引顧客。

When you're talking about capabilities and bringing people to market because they want to hear about what's out there, again, it's less of a price discussion. And therefore, we can safely say that we do expect to be fairly rewarded for the investments we've made and the problems we're solving for customers. And that's a long-term pursuit that we're deep into and we'll continue on.

當你談論能力並將人們帶入市場時，因為他們想了解市場上有什麼，所以這不再是一個價格討論的問題。因此，我們可以有把握地說，我們確實期望我們所做的投資和為客戶解決的問題能夠獲得公平的回報。這是我們深入研究並將繼續堅持的長期追求。

And then maybe on long-term care, are there things that we could watch from the outside, whether it's the net premium ratio or anything else to sort of get a better idea on if there's going to be a need for a reserve increase down the road, maybe not necessarily this year?

那麼，也許在長期照護方面，我們可以從外部觀察一些事情，無論是淨保費比率還是其他什麼，以便更好地了解是否需要在未來增加儲備，也許不一定是今年？

But is there a level that if the net premium ratio increases that it would necessitate a charge? I realize that's too simplistic, but there's only a limited number of things that one can see from the disclosure. But how do you -- how should one assess from the outside where LTC reserve cases might become a risk?

但是，如果淨保費比率上升到某個水平，是否就需要收費呢？我意識到這太簡單了，但從披露中我們只能看到有限的幾件事。但是你如何－應該如何從外部評估長期照護儲備案例在哪些方面可能成為風險？

Yeah. I mean, as you can imagine, going through these assumption updates, incredibly complex. And so we've tried to give some measurements to the market, whether it's just around the absolute earnings coming, the explanation of what's going on with the benefit experience within those earnings.

是的。我的意思是，正如你所想像的，經歷這些假設更新是極其複雜的。因此，我們試圖為市場提供一些衡量標準，無論是圍繞絕對收益，還是對這些收益中的收益體驗的解釋。

The NPR is an indicator for some of those cohorts, just whether we have adverse experience during the period. And then we also try to give an indication of our progress towards our rate increase expectations within the reserve.

對於某些群體來說，NPR 是一個指標，表明我們在此期間是否有過不良經歷。然後，我們也試圖表明我們在儲備金範圍內實現利率上調預期的進展。

So I mean, those are the measurements we've tried to give. But until you really go through the entire process, it's -- I'd say it's pretty hard to give a lean one way or the other. You just need to do the work from our perspective. And we'll let you know as we see things emerge one way or the other.

所以我的意思是，這些是我們試圖給出的測量結果。但除非你真正經歷整個過程，否則——我想說，無論如何都很難做出判斷。你只需要從我們的角度來做工作。一旦我們發現事情有進展，我們會立即通知您。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Yeah, thank you. Just one quick one on the natural growth, any observations about wage inflation versus employee headcount? What was it in Q2 versus 6 months ago, 12 months ago?

是的，謝謝。關於自然成長，您有什麼關於薪資通膨與員工人數的觀察嗎？與 6 個月前、12 個月前相比，第二季的情況如何？

Yeah, Mark, it's Rick. We watch it, and it's not exact science. But I think that we'll see it ebb and flow between both wages and payrolls. And I think in this quarter, we happen to see payrolls looks good and looks strong.

是的，馬克，我是瑞克。我們觀察了它，它並不是精確的科學。但我認為我們會看到工資和薪資之間的起伏。我認為在本季度，我們恰好看到工資單看起來不錯而且強勁。

And so we kind of look at it in aggregate to say how is the size of the block going on its own and the mix between those two. And so we're kind of on our longer-term expectations right around 3%. But it's something that we'll continue to watch.

因此，我們從總體上來看待這個問題，看看區塊本身的大小是如何變化的，以及這兩者之間的混合。因此，我們的長期預期大約是 3% 左右。但我們會繼續關注此事。

So we appreciate that. And it's -- as I say, the environment for our business still continues to be very good. We're still seeing that, and we'll continue to look to grow those premiums, that being a core element of that.

我們對此表示感謝。正如我所說，我們的業務環境仍然非常好。我們仍然看到這一點，我們將繼續尋求增加這些保費，這是其中的核心要素。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Mike Ward, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥克沃德。

Hey, thanks for the follow-up. I was just wondering if there's any way we can think about just the fact that your stock has appreciated in the last several quarters. And so that must be a drag on the EPS guidance to some degree, right? In terms of the --

嘿，謝謝你的跟進。我只是想知道我們是否可以考慮一下您的股票在過去幾季中升值的事實。所以這必定會在某種程度上拖累每股收益指引，對嗎？就--

Yeah, I would say it's not a huge impact or headwind as we were coming through the year versus how the stocks perform. We tend to be pretty conservative with how we set our plan and just what the stock price is going to do over time.

是的，我想說這不是一個巨大的影響或阻力，因為我們今年的表現與股票的表現相比。我們對於如何制定計劃以及股票價格的走勢往往持相當保守的態度。

And we update that as well throughout the year as we kind of reforecast. So what I'd tell you is the outlook that we gave of the $850 million, that reflects kind of current levels and just what our expectation would be between now and the end of the year. But I wouldn't factor that in as kind of a big contributing factor of the change to our EPS outlook.

並且我們全年都會根據重新預測的方式更新該數據。所以我想告訴你的是，我們給出的 8.5 億美元的前景反映了當前的水平以及我們對從現在到年底的預期。但我不認為這是導致我們每股盈餘預期變化的一個重要因素。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Rick McKenney for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給 Rick McKenney 做最後發言。

Great. Thanks, Jeannie. Appreciate it. Thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning and your continued interest in Unum. As you can tell from our comments today, we are very focused on executing on our strategy and confident in our 2025 outlook and beyond.

偉大的。謝謝，珍妮。非常感謝。感謝大家今天早上加入我們並持續關注 Unum。從我們今天的評論中可以看出，我們非常專注於執行我們的策略，並對我們的 2025 年及以後的展望充滿信心。

So with that, we conclude today's call. Look forward to connecting with you again in the very near future. Thanks, everyone.

今天的電話會議就此結束。期待不久的將來再次與您聯繫。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。