普登 (UNM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Unum Group fourth-quarter 2024 results and 2025 outlook conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Unum Group 2024 年第四季業績和 2025 年展望電話會議。請注意，本次通話正在錄音。（操作員指令）

I'd now like to hand the call over to Matt Royal, Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations and Treasury. You may now begin.

現在，我想將電話交給高級副總裁、投資者關係和財務主管 Matt Royal。現在您就可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Unum Group's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. Today, we will be discussing full year 2024 results along with highlights from the fourth quarter. We will also use the time to discuss our outlook for 2025.

謝謝，早安。歡迎參加 Unum Group 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天，我們將討論 2024 年全年業績以及第四季的亮點。我們也將利用這段時間討論對 2025 年的展望。

Please note today's call may include forward-looking statements and actual results may differ. We are not obligated to update any of these statements. And as always, you can refer to our earnings release and our filings with the SEC for a description of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from expected results.

請注意，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能會有所不同。我們沒有義務更新任何這些聲明。像往常一樣，您可以參考我們的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素。

Yesterday afternoon, Unum released our earnings, including the financial supplement and presentation materials for today's call. Copies of those materials can be found on the Investors section of our website. Finally, references made today to core operation sales and premium including Unum International are presented on a constant currency basis.

昨天下午，Unum 發布了我們的收益，包括財務補充和今天電話會議的演示材料。這些資料的副本可在我們網站的投資者部分找到。最後，今天提到的包括 Unum International 在內的核心營運銷售額和保費都是以固定匯率計算的。

Participating in this morning's conference call are Unum's President and CEO, Rick McKenney; and Chief Financial Officer, Steve Zabel. Following remarks from Rick and Steve, additional members of management will participate in Q&A, including Mark Till, who heads our Unum International business; Tim Arnold, who heads our Colonial Life and Voluntary Benefits lines; and Chris Pyne for Group Benefits.

參加今天早上的電話會議的有 Unum 總裁兼執行長 Rick McKenney；和首席財務官史蒂夫·扎貝爾 (Steve Zabel)。在 Rick 和 Steve 發言之後，其他管理成員將參加問答環節，其中包括負責 Unum 國際業務的 Mark Till；阿諾德 (Tim Arnold)，我們殖民地人壽和自願福利線路的負責人；以及負責團體福利的 Chris Pyne。

Thank you again for your time this morning. And with that, let me turn the call over to our CEO, Rick McKenney.

再次感謝您今天上午抽出時間。現在，請允許我將電話轉給我們的執行長 Rick McKenney。

Thank you, Matt, good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you all today. We appreciate the opportunity to share not only the strong results we delivered throughout 2024, but also on the excitement as we look to the future.

謝謝你，馬特，大家早安。我很高興今天能和大家在一起。我們很高興有機會分享我們在 2024 年取得的強勁業績，也分享我們對未來的興奮之情。

Our leadership position is hard earned and embedded in our DNA is the desire to find new ways to develop and grow in the employee benefit space. In fact, we are motivated by the privilege we have to serve 47 million customers and are well positioned to serve many more. Our focus on taking care of our customers at time of need, supporting our employees to provide excellent service, and engaging in our communities has the profound effect of building a durable franchise that delivers significant value for our shareholders.

我們的領導地位來之不易，而尋求在員工福利領域發展和成長的新途徑的願望深深植根於我們的 DNA 中。事實上，我們很榮幸能為 4,700 萬客戶提供服務，這讓我們備受鼓舞，而且我們有能力為更多的客戶提供服務。我們專注於在客戶需要的時候照顧他們，支持我們的員工提供優質服務，並積極參與社區活動，這對於建立持久的特許經營權具有深遠的影響，可以為我們的股東帶來巨大價值。

Stead commitment to the working world are core to who we are and brings delivery and creativity to those who we are connected with. These connections are strong and built to last. The capabilities we are bringing to the market such as HR Connect, Total Leave, Gather, and Help@hand, our connection points with employers and employees to bring greater customer satisfaction and ease with the benefits experience.

對工作世界的堅定承諾是我們的核心，並為與我們有聯繫的人帶來交付和創造力。這些連接非常牢固且持久。我們向市場推出的功能，例如 HR Connect、Total Leave、Gather 和 Help@hand，是我們與雇主和員工的連接點，旨在提高客戶滿意度並簡化福利體驗。

When considering the expertise and empathy our team adds to every interaction in every touch point and connection -- these advancements have been instrumental in attracting customers and maintaining our competitive advantage. These advantages are not only as good as the ability to deliver them year in and year out, it takes consistency and a disciplined approach to run a leading business in our market.

考慮到我們的團隊在每個接觸點和連結的每次互動中所增添的專業知識和同理心——這些進步對於吸引客戶和維持我們的競爭優勢至關重要。這些優勢不僅需要年復一年地保持下去的能力，還需要一致性和嚴謹的方法才能在我們的市場上保持領先地位。

Our commitment remains unaverred, and has continued to deliver top line growth, earnings growth and high returns on equity. Overall, in 2024, we grew earnings per share 10%, which is above our initial expectations of 7% to 9% growth going into the year. We saw most of our product lines meeting or exceeding our expectations throughout the year, and our core operations delivered over 20% ROE in 2024.

我們的承諾始終沒有改變，並持續實現營收成長、獲利成長和高股本回報率。總體而言，到 2024 年，我們的每股盈餘將成長 10%，高於我們最初預期的今年 7% 至 9% 的成長。我們看到，我們的大多數產品線全年都達到或超過了我們的預期，我們的核心業務在 2024 年實現了超過 20% 的 ROE。

From a capital standpoint, we've again executed our plans in line with how we described them coming into the year, and with good overall results exceeding expectations on value delivered to our shareholders. 2024 was the first year in many years that LTC did not consume any capital. The actions we took in 2023 to fund this block and our expectation of not needing to put more capital here are playing out.

從資本角度來看，我們再次按照今年的描述執行了我們的計劃，並且整體業績良好，超出了我們為股東創造的價值的預期。 2024年是LTC多年來第一次沒有消耗任何資金的一年。我們在 2023 年為該區塊提供資金而採取的行動以及我們不需要在這裡投入更多資金的預期正在實現。

Further, we raised our dividend by 15% and repurchased approximately $1 billion of shares throughout 2024, including just over $700 million of repurchases when excluding onetime additional repurchases following the PCAP Trust transaction. With these actions, we still ended the year with stronger-than-expected financial metrics, including holding company cash of $2 billion and an RBC ratio of 430%. This is in addition to the significant capital buffer within the Closed Block, which Steve will talk about more in a minute.

此外，我們將股息提高了 15%，並在 2024 年全年回購了約 10 億美元的股票，其中不包括 PCAP 信託交易後的一次性額外回購，回購金額略高於 7 億美元。透過這些行動，我們仍然以強於預期的財務指標結束了這一財年，包括 20 億美元的控股公司現金和 430% 的 RBC 比率。這是封閉區塊內大量資本緩衝的補充，史蒂夫稍後將對此進行詳細討論。

Looking forward, we expect our key metrics to enhance further and provide even greater strategic optionality as our core businesses will continue to deliver between $1.3 billion and $1.6 billion of free cash flow in 2025. As we transition to think about 2025, we continue to witness both a market backdrop and an economic environment that are highly supportive of our business. A competitive labor market, wage inflation, and sustained interest rates provide us with ample opportunities to grow and thrive.

展望未來，我們預計我們的關鍵指標將進一步提升並提供更大的戰略可選性，因為我們的核心業務將在 2025 年繼續提供 13 億至 16 億美元的自由現金流。當我們開始思考 2025 年時，我們將繼續見證高度支持我們業務的市場背景和經濟環境。競爭激烈的勞動力市場、薪資上漲以及持續的利率為我們提供了充足的成長和繁榮機會。

Our action plan is to continue building on our solid foundation and maintain our leading foothold with digital capabilities. We're dedicated to continually upgrading our core operations while maintaining our disciplined approach and innovating in ways that resonate with our customers and the market.

我們的行動計劃是繼續鞏固我們的基礎，並憑藉數位化能力保持我們的領先地位。我們致力於不斷升級我們的核心運營，同時保持我們嚴謹的方法並以與客戶和市場產生共鳴的方式進行創新。

When we look across the company, we are hitting the ground running in 2025, and our teams are looking to build on some very strong growth rates with consolidated sales growth of high-single digits, coupled with good persistency, premium growth is expected to deliver in the 4% to 7% range.

放眼整個公司，我們將在 2025 年全力以赴，我們的團隊希望在非常強勁的增長率的基礎上再接再厲，實現高個位數的綜合銷售額增長，再加上良好的持久性，預計保費增長率將達到 4% 至 7% 之間。

With continued disciplined underwriting, we expect to maintain good margins that will flow through to earnings and after we've used some of our capital generation to purchase shares, we will deliver 8% to 12% earnings per share growth, on top of the 10% adjusted EPS growth we delivered in 2024. All of this is predicated on our customer-centric approach remaining at the heart of our strategy. We're constantly adapting our services to meet changing market needs and ensuring we remain the preferred choice for our clients.

透過持續嚴格的承銷，我們預計將保持良好的利潤率，並將轉化為收益，在我們利用部分資本購買股票後，我們將實現 8% 至 12% 的每股收益增長，再加上我們在 2024 年實現的 10% 調整後每股收益增長。所有這些都基於我們以客戶為中心的理念，也是我們策略的核心。我們不斷調整我們的服務以滿足不斷變化的市場需求，並確保我們仍然是客戶的首選。

When we met last February, we outlined our strategy and plans to build on our market-leading position. We can report that we're advancing on this and seeing the results. For Unum in the US, we are leveraging our go-to-market expertise to connect benefit solutions to HR platforms effectively while also ensuring our leave management is best in class.

去年二月我們開會時概述了我們的策略和鞏固市場領先地位的計劃。我們可以報告，我們在這方面正在取得進展並看到了成果。對於美國的 Unum，我們正在利用我們的市場專業知識將福利解決方案有效地連接到人力資源平台，同時確保我們的休假管理是一流的。

Leave management has been a challenge for the industry and with our history, knowledge, and focus, we can continue to give a differentiated experience to our customers. In addition, we saw strong momentum in the trend of customers preferring the full suite of products. Our efforts are geared towards seamless enrollment, billing and administration via solutions like [Buy] Unum and establishing robust connections with select third-party platforms.

休假管理一直是業界面臨的挑戰，憑藉我們的歷史、知識和專注力，我們可以繼續為客戶提供差異化的體驗。此外，我們看到客戶青睞全套產品的趨勢強勁。我們的努力致力於透過 [Buy] Unum 等解決方案實現無縫註冊、計費和管理，並與精選的第三方平台建立穩固的連接。

In Colonial Life, the focus is continuing to build and support our independent salesforce with enhanced tools and solutions. Our proprietary industry-leading agent-assist technology, which enables automated regeneration, CRM and workflow will help boost agent productivity of our independent agents so they can continue to focus on building their agencies.

在 Colonial Life，重點是繼續透過增強的工具和解決方案來建立和支持我們獨立的銷售團隊。我們專有的業界領先的代理輔助技術，可實現自動再生、CRM 和工作流程，將有助於提高我們獨立代理的生產力，使他們能夠繼續專注於建立自己的代理商。

Another key tool is our arsenal is Gather, which modernizes enrollment and benefits administration and streamlines the client experience. Finally, enabling Colonial Life agents to offer Unum employer-paid products ensures that they have the solution for every employer and broker with market-leading group products. For Unum UK, our approach has been to redefine the broker experience, setting a market-leading standard that is distinctively Unum and enhancing our relationship management model.

我們的另一個關鍵工具是 Gather，它使註冊和福利管理現代化，並簡化了客戶體驗。最後，讓 Colonial Life 代理商提供 Unum 雇主支付的產品可確保他們能夠為每個雇主和經紀人提供具有市場領先團體產品的解決方案。對於 Unum UK，我們的方法是重新定義經紀人體驗，設定獨特的 Unum 市場領先標準並增強我們的關係管理模式。

We are dedicated to providing value-added services that drive customer engagement and loyalty, such as through Help@hand, which offers integrated value-added services and by delivering comprehensive management information that yields actionable insights. Moreover, we're expanding our product set to encompass a broader spectrum of risk and well-being solutions.

我們致力於提供可提高客戶參與度和忠誠度的增值服務，例如透過提供全面增值服務的Help@hand，以及提供可產生可操作見解的綜合管理資訊。此外，我們正在擴大我們的產品範圍，以涵蓋更廣泛的風險和福利解決方案。

In 2024, we launched a claims portal for large customers, the first of its kind, delivered by a disability insurer in the UK. All of these efforts across the company will drive growth in the number of employees we serve and, in turn, will generate the growth of premiums and earnings. It is a simple, purpose-driven strategy that has resonated through different cycles.

2024 年，我們推出了由英國一家殘障保險公司提供的首個針對大客戶的索賠入口網站。公司上下的所有這些努力將推動我們服務的員工數量的成長，進而帶動保費和收入的成長。這是一個簡單的、目標驅動的策略，在不同的週期中產生了共鳴。

We have a proven track record of achieving our growth aspirations. If you look at the last 10 years, first, you can note our compound annual growth rate of 4% for core premiums, which is especially remarkable when taking into account the pandemic.

我們在實現成長目標方面有著良好的記錄。如果回顧過去 10 年，首先，您會注意到核心保費的複合年增長率為 4%，考慮到疫情的影響，這一增長率尤其引人注目。

The second is to look at growth in book value per share. We have seen 9% compound growth driven by a similar EPS growth. It is a strong story that encapsulates how we have driven value over the long term. We also remain disciplined stewards of our capital in building franchise value. The consistency of our capital priorities remains intact.

第二是看每股帳面價值的成長。我們看到了由類似的每股盈餘成長推動的 9% 的複合成長。這是一個很有說服力的故事，概括了我們如何長期推動價值。在打造特許經營價值的過程中，我們仍將嚴謹地管理資本。我們的資本優先事項依然保持一致。

First, we ensure strategic investments directly support our businesses. We have a clear growth strategy continued to build out our offerings and capitalize on our well-positioned and profitable products. Second, we continue to look externally to identify and pursue selective M&A that supports our internal initiatives in line with this strategy.

首先，我們確保策略投資直接支持我們的業務。我們有一個明確的成長策略，即不斷擴大我們的產品範圍並利用我們定位明確、利潤豐厚的產品。其次，我們繼續從外部尋找並進行選擇性的併購，以支持我們符合此策略的內部舉措。

And third, we will continue to return capital to shareholders via regular dividend increases and share repurchases as we have demonstrated through our actions in increasing both commensurate with our plans.

第三，我們將繼續透過定期增加股利和股票回購來向股東返還資本，正如我們已經透過與計畫相稱的行動所證明的那樣。

Summing it up, our strong capital generation $500 million to $1 billion of share repurchases and no LTC contributions will leave us in a position of greater than 400% RBC and holding company cash greater than $2 billion at the end of 2025. Our continued commitment to innovation, prudent capital allocation, and shareholder returns remain steadfast. With our customer first-mindset, agile operations, and comprehensive financial strategies, we continue to shape our future. 2025 is going to be an exciting year for you.

總而言之，我們強大的資本產生能力（5 億至 10 億美元的股票回購和沒有 LTC 貢獻）將使我們在 2025 年底的 RBC 超過 400%，並且持有公司現金超過 20 億美元。我們始終堅定不移地致力於創新、審慎的資本配置和股東回報。我們秉持著客戶至上的理念、敏捷的營運和全面的財務策略，不斷塑造我們的未來。 2025 年對您來說將是令人興奮的一年。

I'd like to now hand it over to Steve to provide further insights into how we wrapped up the year and provide outlook details for 2025. Steve?

現在，我想把話題交給史蒂夫，讓他進一步介紹我們如何結束這一年，並提供 2025 年的展望細節。史蒂夫？

Great, thanks, Rick, and good morning to everyone. As Rick mentioned, we were extremely pleased with the strong finish to the year across the board. The fourth quarter capped another year of solid growth as evidenced by our results. For the full year, sales were up 6.1% in Unum International, down 1.4% in Colonial Life, and up 6.5% in Unum US, where we saw record absolute sales and growth of nearly 20% in the fourth quarter, which is our largest sales quarter of the year.

太好了，謝謝你，里克，大家早安。正如 Rick 所提到的，我們對今年各方面的強勁表現感到非常高興。我們的業績證明，第四季又實現了穩健成長。全年來看，Unum International 銷售額成長 6.1%，Colonial Life 銷售額下降 1.4%，Unum US 銷售額成長 6.5%，其中第四季絕對銷售額創歷史新高，增幅接近 20%，是我們今年銷售額最大的一個季度。

Premium for our core operations increased 3.6% in the quarter compared to a year ago and finished up 5% for the full year. This is within the expectation laid out last February and consistent with our long-term expectation of 4% to 7% annual premium growth. Margins across the business continue to be robust. Unum US results saw continued sustainability in both disability and life results, highlighted by a disability benefit ratio of 59% for the full year and 60.4% in the fourth quarter.

本季度，我們核心業務的保費收入較去年同期成長了 3.6%，全年成長了 5%。這符合去年二月提出的預期，也與我們對年保費成長率 4% 至 7% 的長期預期一致。整個業務的利潤率持續保持強勁。Unum US 的業績顯示，傷殘和人壽保險結果均保持持續可持續性，其中全年傷殘福利比率為 59%，第四季度為 60.4%。

Meanwhile, Group Life and AD&D finished with a benefit ratio of 66.3% for the year and 66.7% for the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect performance for both of these lines to continue and are maintaining our outlook for both benefit ratios. Specifically for disability, we firmly believe that the results we are seeing are durable for the near to midterm as we continue to see support for these levels in our operations and in the market; and therefore, reiterate our outlook for a benefit ratio in the low 60%s.

同時，團體人壽和意外身故及殘障險的全年盈利率為 66.3%，本季獲利率為 66.7%。展望未來，我們預期這兩條生產線的表現都將持續，並且我們維持對兩條生產線的效益比率的預期。具體來說，對於殘疾問題，我們堅信我們所看到的成果在近期至中期內將是持久的，因為我們在營運和市場中繼續看到對這些水準的支持；因此，我們重申對 60% 以下福利比率的預測。

For Group Life and AD&D, we think current trends will continue for the near term and therefore believe the and therefore believe the benefit ratio outlook will be around 70% with potential period-to-period favorability as we have recently experienced.

對於團體人壽和意外身故和殘疾險，我們認為當前的趨勢將在短期內持續下去，因此相信福利比率前景將在 70% 左右，並且正如我們最近經歷的那樣，具有潛在的時期間有利性。

We also saw strong margin performance beyond Unum US. Colonial Life delivered one of its highest quarters of earnings on record and International continues to produce earnings in line with its earnings outlook, which we did raise earlier this year to the mid- to upper-GBP20 million-range per quarter. Both franchises are well positioned to continue these strong operating trends as we enter 2025.

我們也看到 Unum US 以外的利潤率表現強勁。Colonial Life 創造了有史以來最高的季度收益之一，而 International 繼續按照其盈利預期盈利，我們在今年早些時候將盈利預期上調至每季 2000 萬英鎊的中上水平。進入 2025 年，這兩個特許經營權都有望繼續保持強勁的營運趨勢。

All of these factors enabled us to end the year with after-tax adjusted operating income of $1.6 billion and after-tax adjusted operating earnings per share of $8.44, which represents growth of 10.2% over full year 2023. The strong earnings power for GAAP was also apparent in our statutory results with full year after-tax operating earnings of over $1.3 billion, which was within our outlook of $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion.

所有這些因素使得我們在年底實現稅後調整後營業收入 16 億美元，稅後調整後每股營業收益 8.44 美元，比 2023 年全年增長 10.2%。強勁的 GAAP 獲利能力也體現在我們的法定業績中，全年稅後營業利潤超過 13 億美元，符合我們預期的 12 億美元和 14 億美元。

Earlier, Rick mentioned our capital priorities and detailed our aspirations to grow the business while also returning capital to shareholders. Our consistent and powerful cash flow generation model provides us with significant capital flexibility, which was further enhanced in 2024 without the need to fund LTC.

早些時候，里克提到了我們的資本優先事項，並詳細說明了我們在發展業務的同時向股東返還資本的願望。我們一致且強大的現金流生成模型為我們提供了顯著的資本靈活性，這種靈活性在 2024 年得到了進一步增強，無需為 LTC 提供資金。

As a result, we returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. This was an increase of 2.5 times from our deployment of just over $500 million in 2023. Our top capital priority is to reinvest organically into the business.

結果，我們以股票回購和股利的形式向股東返還了 13 億美元。這比我們 2023 年部署的 5 億美元增加了 2.5 倍。我們的首要資本重點是對業務進行有機再投資。

The strength of our persistency and new account sales metrics are a testament to the value of our offering in the market and the success we are seeing with the key strategic initiatives that Rick discussed. Investing in these capabilities to grow our core business and increase efficiency is a key priority. As a result, the full-year 2024 adjusted operating expense ratio of 21.7% was consistent with 2023.

我們的堅持和新帳戶銷售指標的強勁證明了我們的產品在市場上的價值以及我們在 Rick 討論的關鍵策略舉措中看到的成功。投資這些能力來發展我們的核心業務並提高效率是當務之急。因此，2024 年全年調整後營業費用率為 21.7%，與 2023 年一致。

In 2025, we expect the expense ratio to increase slightly as we balance continued investment to maintain our differentiation in markets with realizing further productivity gains. So then focusing in on the fourth quarter, results represented a continuation of some of the strong trends we've seen throughout the year, mainly around margin sustainability and group disability and life. We did see some pressure in our supplemental and voluntary lines that I will discuss in a moment. However, we don't expect that to persist in 2025.

2025 年，我們預計費用率將略有上升，因為我們需要在持續投資以保持市場差異化與實現進一步生產力提高之間取得平衡。因此，我們將重點放在第四季度，業績延續了我們全年看到的一些強勁趨勢，主要圍繞著利潤可持續性以及團體殘障和人壽保險。我們確實看到了補充和自願線路方面的一些壓力，我稍後將討論。然而，我們預計這種情況不會持續到 2025 年。

All in all, this produced after-tax adjusted operating earnings per share of $2.03 for the quarter and $8.44 for the full year, representing 10.2% growth over 2023. Notably, this growth level follows multiple years of double digit EPS growth.

整體而言，本季稅後調整後每股營業利潤為 2.03 美元，全年稅後調整後每股營業利潤為 8.44 美元，比 2023 年成長 10.2%。值得注意的是，這一成長水準是在連續多年實現兩位數每股收益成長之後實現的。

So then I'll now briefly review our 2024 results by segment, provide updates on the Closed Block and then shift to our 2025 outlook. In Unum US, full year adjusted operating income of $1.4 billion increased 6.2% over 2023. As mentioned earlier, these results were bolstered by a sustained group disability margins but also group life performance with the Group Life and AD&D product line experiencing full year adjusted operating earnings growth of 62.8%.

那麼，我現在將簡要回顧我們各細分市場的 2024 年業績，提供有關封閉區塊的最新信息，然後轉向我們對 2025 年的展望。在 Unum US，全年調整後營業收入為 14 億美元，比 2023 年成長 6.2%。如前所述，這些結果受到持續的團體殘障利潤率和團體人壽績效的推動，其中團體人壽和意外傷害及殘障產品線的全年調整後營業收入增長率為 62.8%。

While this quarter saw pressure from our supplemental and voluntary lines, specifically voluntary benefits, we view these impacts as transitory and believe results in 2025 should return to more normal levels specifically quarterly earnings around $121 million compared to the $104 million in the fourth quarter.

雖然本季我們的補充和自願福利（特別是自願福利）帶來了壓力，但我們認為這些影響是暫時的，並相信 2025 年的業績應該恢復到更正常的水平，特別是季度收益約為 1.21 億美元，而第四季度為 1.04 億美元。

Then from a growth perspective, Unum US earned premium grew 4.6% to $6.9 billion due to natural growth, higher sales, and solid persistency, which is near our 5.7% expectation.

從成長角度來看，由於自然成長、更高的銷售額和穩健的持續性，Unum US 賺取的保費成長 4.6% 至 69 億美元，接近我們的 5.7% 預期。

Moving to Unum International. The segment continued to show strong trends in its underlying earnings power and top line growth. Adjusted operating income of $157.8 million for full year 2024 was relatively flat compared to the prior year, but didn't have the benefit of high levels of UK inflation seen in 2023. As such, the underlying earnings power of the business grew in 2024. And when adjusting for the impact of inflation, UK earnings grew approximately 15% over 2023.

遷往 Unum International。該部門的基本獲利能力和營收成長持續呈現強勁趨勢。2024 年全年調整後營業收入為 1.578 億美元，與前一年相比相對持平，但並未受到 2023 年英國高通膨的影響。因此，該業務的潛在獲利能力將在 2024 年成長。而經通膨影響調整後，英國的營收在 2023 年將成長約 15%。

Fourth-quarter UK results of GBP27.6 million were in line with our outlook for adjusted operating earnings levels in the mid to upper GBP20 million range. As we enter 2025, we expect to grow off of this range and believe the upper GBP20 million range remains an appropriate outlook.

英國第四季的業績為 2,760 萬英鎊，符合我們對調整後營業利潤在 2,000 萬英鎊中上水準的預期。隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們預計將從這一範圍增長，並相信 2000 萬英鎊的上限仍然是一個合適的前景。

We are pleased with the growth levels in the UK highlighted by full year premium growth of 9.4% and sales growth of 6.6%. While the UK business is the major driver of this segment, Poland saw another year of significant growth, increasing premiums 24.2%, while sales grew 4.2%.

我們對英國的成長水準感到滿意，全年保費成長 9.4%，銷售額成長 6.6%。雖然英國業務是這一領域的主要推動力，但波蘭又經歷了一年的顯著增長，保費增長了 24.2%，而銷售額增長了 4.2%。

Then turning to Colonial. While sales were down for the full year, premium did grow steadily at 3.3%. Despite slower levels of growth, margins remained outstanding, and fourth-quarter adjusted operating earnings were some of Colonial's best ever at $122.7 million. Full-year results of $466.7 million were up 16.6% over 2023, and equated to a return on equity of 19.7% compared to 18.1% in the prior year.

然後轉向殖民地。雖然全年銷售額下降，但保費卻穩定成長了 3.3%。儘管成長速度放緩，但利潤率依然出色，第四季度調整後營業利潤達到 1.227 億美元，是 Colonial 公司歷史上最好的成績之一。全年2023 年的業績為 4.667 億美元，成長 16.6%，相當於股本回報率為 19.7%，而上一年為 18.1%。

So before covering the Closed Block results, the Corporate segment, which consists predominantly of corporate debt-related expenses produced a loss of $50.4 million in the quarter, and we expect this level of loss to continue into 2025.

因此，在介紹封閉式區塊結果之前，主要由企業債務相關費用組成的企業部門在本季度產生了 5,040 萬美元的虧損，我們預計這種虧損水準將持續到 2025 年。

Switching gears to the Closed Block of business and focusing on this quarter, adjusted operating earnings were $27.7 million. This brings full year earnings to $137.8 million, which is in line with our outlook of $130 million to $160 million. The LTC net premium ratio, which is indicative of a lifetime benefit ratio expectation, increased slightly to 94.6% from 94.5% in the third quarter of 2024.

轉向封閉式業務區塊並專注於本季度，調整後的營業收入為 2,770 萬美元。這使得全年獲利達到 1.378 億美元，符合我們預期的 1.3 億至 1.6 億美元。長期保險淨保費比率（顯示終身福利比率預期）從 2024 年第三季的 94.5% 小幅上升至 94.6%。

Further, LTC incidents remained above long-term expected levels and was generally consistent with our experience in the third quarter. We continue to believe the elevated incidence rates has been a function of inventory levels normalizing in the environment following the pandemic, and we may continue to see some of this volatility going forward.

此外，LTC 事件仍高於長期預期水平，與我們第三季的經驗基本一致。我們仍然認為，發病率上升是疫情後庫存水準正常化的結果，未來我們可能會繼續看到這種波動。

Lastly, for the Closed Block, our alternative investment portfolio, which largely backs LTC, produced income of $30.5 million in the quarter or a yield of 9.1% on an annualized basis. Since inception of this portfolio, our diversified alternative portfolio has produced returns which are in line with our long-term expectation of 8% to 10%.

最後，對於封閉式區塊，我們的另類投資組合主要支援 LTC，本季產生了 3,050 萬美元的收入，以年率計算的收益率為 9.1%。自該投資組合成立以來，我們的多元化另類投資組合產生的回報符合我們 8% 至 10% 的長期預期。

And moving on from quarterly results. I'll now take a few moments to address the overall position of our LTC block. 2024 saw a handful of positive trends, including the higher for longer rate environment as well as our success regarding our premium rate increase program. Both of these factors drove pronounced impacts to our block that I'll describe.

接下來是季度業績。現在我想花一點時間來討論我們 LTC 區塊的整體情況。 2024 年出現了一些積極的趨勢，包括長期利率環境走高以及我們的保費率上調計劃取得成功。這兩個因素都對我們的街區產生了明顯的影響，以下我將進行描述。

First, through the end of 2024, we have achieved over 50% of our current premium rate increase program expectation. We are pleased with both the pace and the receptiveness from regulators for these requests. A key element of this success has been offering policyholders flexibility. We regularly present choices for coverage adjustments and other methods that we may better suit their present financial and insurance needs.

首先，到2024年底，我們已經實現了目前保費上漲計畫預期的50%以上。我們對監管機構處理這些請求的速度和接受程度感到滿意。其成功的關鍵因素是向保單持有人提供靈活性。我們定期提供保險範圍調整和其他方法的選擇，以便更好地滿足他們當前的財務和保險需求。

Second, the higher rate environment has had major benefits to LTC over the last few years, and this was no different in 2024. Our hedge program remained active, and with $2.6 billion of outstanding notional at year-end, with average hedge rates of 4.3%, exceeding our best estimate ultimate assumption for the 30-year treasury of 4.25%.

其次，過去幾年，較高的利率環境為 LTC 帶來了巨大好處，2024 年也不例外。我們的對沖計畫仍保持活躍，年底未償還名目金額為 26 億美元，平均對沖利率為 4.3%，超過了我們對 30 年期公債 4.25% 的最佳估計最終假設。

In addition, as we discussed earlier in the year, we took the opportunity to extend the horizon of investable cash flows hedged from 5 years up to 10 years in some cases. Overall, we are very pleased with the impacts of our hedge program and the prudent risk management it provides. As Rick mentioned in his opening, we no longer anticipate the need for further capital contributions for LTC. Our 2024 capital deployment demonstrated this, allowing us to concentrate further on expanding our core operations and returning value to our shareholders.

此外，正如我們今年稍早所討論的那樣，我們藉此機會將可投資現金流的對沖期限從 5 年延長至 10 年。總體而言，我們對我們的對沖計劃的影響以及它所提供的審慎風險管理感到非常滿意。正如 Rick 在開幕式上提到的那樣，我們不再預期 LTC 需要進一步的資本投入。我們的 2024 年資本配置證明了這一點，使我們能夠進一步專注於擴大核心業務並為股東帶來價值。

Our confidence is reinforced by the $2.6 billion of protection, which consists of the difference between our best estimate reserves and our reported statutory reserves plus excess capital at Fairwind. With the sustained levels of interest rates, we were able to release a large portion of our premium deficiency reserve in Fairwind.

26 億美元的保障增強了我們的信心，這筆保障包括我們的最佳估計儲備金和我們報告的法定儲備金加上 Fairwind 的超額資本之間的差額。在利率水準持續穩定的情況下，我們得以在 Fairwind 釋放大部分保費不足準備金。

Due to tax impacts on reserve releases in the Fairwind excess capital, the level of protection decreased as expected from $2.8 billion reported last year to $2.6 billion this year. On an economic basis, we are in a similar position of strength to last year, as this capital will stay in Fairwind. We provided update sensitivities to show the relative size that changes in assumptions have against our protection level.

由於稅收對 Fairwind 超額資本中的儲備釋放產生影響，保護水準如預期從去年報告的 28 億美元下降到今年的 26 億美元。從經濟角度來看，我們的實力與去年相似，因為這筆資金將留在 Fairwind。我們提供了更新敏感度來顯示假設變化相對於我們的保護等級的相對大小。

I'd like to take a pause here and describe a little bit the sensitivities that we show in the materials that are on the screen. And as I'm looking at the table on the right side of the page, what we've done is looked at the major assumptions that we have within our best estimate assumption set for economic reserve for this line of business.

我想在這裡暫停一下，稍微描述一下我們在螢幕上的材料中所表現出的敏感性。當我查看頁面右側的表格時，我們所做的就是查看我們在針對該業務線的經濟儲備的最佳估計假設中設定的主要假設。

And what we have done for both the premium rate increase as well as the morbidity and mortality improvement is just give an indication of what the impact of removing the benefit of those assumptions from our best estimate assumptions would impact our best estimate reserve.

我們對保費率上漲以及發病率和死亡率改善所做的只是表明從我們的最佳估計假設中去除這些假設的好處將對我們的最佳估計儲備產生什麼影響。

For policy lapses and mortalities, claim incidents and claim resolutions, we've really taken the approach to take a one standard deviation variance to our best estimate assumption forever and show the impact of what that would have on our best estimate reserve. And then the last sensitivity that we gave was to take the new money rate for the 30-year treasury and take that down to 3.25% for an ultimate rate and the impact that, that would have on our best estimate.

對於保單失效和死亡、索賠事件和索賠解決方案，我們實際上採取了這樣的方法，即永遠將一個標準差的方差放在我們的最佳估計假設中，並顯示這對我們的最佳估計準備金的影響。然後，我們給出的最後一個敏感度是將 30 年期公債的新貨幣利率降至 3.25% 作為最終利率，以及這對我們的最佳估計的影響。

We obviously do not think that these will all occur together, but wanted to give the market some indication of the sensitivities for these various key assumptions within our best estimate reserve and be able to relate that back to the level of protection that we do believe we have between our recorded regulatory reserves and our best estimate reserve. So this further validates our view that we will no longer need to contribute capital to the block.

我們顯然不認為這些會同時發生，但我們希望向市場提供一些關於我們最佳估計儲備中這些關鍵假設的敏感性的跡象，並能夠將其與我們認為在我們的記錄監管儲備和我們的最佳估計儲備之間所擁有的保護水平聯繫起來。所以這進一步驗證了我們的觀點，即我們將不再需要為該區塊注入資金。

Considering all of this, we are pleased with the position of our block and we will continue to pursue all of our options both internally and externally to best actively manage it. Internally, we will focus on continued risk management actions such as implementing hedging strategies and advancing our premium rate increase program. Externally, we will continue to seek opportunities for economic risk transfer. These actions remain a top priority as we move into 2025.

考慮到所有這些，我們對我們的區塊的位置感到滿意，我們將繼續在內部和外部尋求所有選擇，以最好地積極管理它。在內部，我們將專注於持續的風險管理行動，例如實施對沖策略和推進我們的保費率上調計劃。對外，我們將繼續尋找經濟風險轉移的機會。隨著我們邁入 2025 年，這些行動仍然是首要任務。

For your reference, we have updated the LTC key metrics and block demographics, and they can be found in the appendix of today's presentation. So stepping back, 2024 was an incredible year for the company. And as we turn to 2025, we see many of the same tailwinds and opportunities to win. So with all that considered, it's time to talk about our outlook for this year.

為了供您參考，我們更新了 LTC 關鍵指標和區塊人口統計數據，可以在今天的簡報的附錄中找到。回顧過去，2024 年對公司來說是不可思議的一年。當我們展望2025年時，我們看到許多相同的順風和獲勝機會。考慮到所有這些，現在是時候談談我們對今年的展望了。

I'll start with our view of business growth and earnings power and then discuss how that plays into capital generation. The key theme of our 2025 outlook is consistency with the strong results that we saw in 2024. The major trends that drove those 2024 results are expected to continue in 2025; specifically our group disability and life product margins.

我將首先介紹我們對業務成長和獲利能力的看法，然後討論其如何影響資本創造。我們對 2025 年展望的關鍵主題是與 2024 年看到的強勁業績保持一致。推動 2024 年業績的主要趨勢預計將在 2025 年繼續；特別是我們的團體殘障和人壽產品利潤。

The durability of these trends drive high levels of earnings power and lead to robust free cash flow generation and capital optionality. These sustained margins paired with top line growth and a thoughtful share repurchase strategy drive expected earnings per share growth of 8% to 12% in 2025.

這些趨勢的持久性推動了高水準的獲利能力並帶來了強勁的自由現金流產生和資本可選性。持續的利潤率加上營收成長以及深思熟慮的股票回購策略，預計 2025 年每股收益將成長 8% 至 12%。

I will now turn to our expectations for top-line growth and returns of our core businesses. Following our core operations sales growth of 4.3% in 2024, we expect sales to build momentum in 2025 including continued success in Unum US and International with Colonial resurging to the 5% to 10% growth range. There are different stories across the lines of premium growth but importantly, we believe core operations growth will continue to produce results in line with our long-term expectation of 4% to 7%.

現在，我將談談我們對核心業務營收成長和回報的預期。繼 2024 年核心業務銷售額成長 4.3% 之後，我們預計 2025 年銷售額將保持強勁勢頭，包括 Unum US 和國際業務的持續成功，以及 Colonial 業務重新回升至 5% 至 10% 的成長範圍。保費成長的各個方面都有不同的故事，但重要的是，我們相信核心業務成長將繼續產生符合我們 4% 至 7% 的長期預期的結果。

It's also noteworthy that our international segment continues to produce very strong growth results while maintaining its solid level of margins seen post pandemic. Returns on equity across the board are robust and sector-leading, driven by the sustained product margins I referenced earlier.

另外值得注意的是，我們的國際部門持續實現非常強勁的成長業績，同時維持了疫情後穩固的利潤率水準。整體股本回報率強勁且處於行業領先地位，這得益於我之前提到的持續的產品利潤率。

I'll now pivot from GAAP metrics to our capital expectations in 2025. Our capital generation model continues to grow after a fantastic 2024, with our sources of expected capital totaling $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion. This compares to our outlook last year of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion.

現在，我將從 GAAP 指標轉向我們 2025 年的資本預期。在經歷了出色的 2024 年後，我們的資本產生模式將繼續成長，預計資本來源總額將達到 15 億至 18 億美元。相較之下，我們去年的預期是 14 億至 16 億美元。

As a reminder, our cash generation is driven by earnings in our US insurance subsidiaries, which will convert to dividends to our holding company, dividends from our UK operations, and other fees charged to our operating companies, specifically asset management fees. This is all fueled by our strong earnings across our businesses.

提醒一下，我們的現金創造來自於我們美國保險子公司的收益，這些收益將轉化為我們控股公司的股息、我們英國業務的股息以及向我們的營運公司收取的其他費用，特別是資產管理費。這一切都得益於我們各項業務的強勁獲利。

We do not expect major changes in our capital usage in 2025. Specifically, we will continue to service our debt at leverage consistent to current levels, steadily increase our dividend, and return capital through a sizable share repurchase program. For 2025, we expect to buy back between $500 million and $1 billion of shares as we assess our capital deployment priorities throughout the year.

我們預計 2025 年我們的資本使用情況不會有重大變化。具體來說，我們將繼續以與當前水準一致的槓桿償還債務，穩步增加股息，並透過大規模的股票回購計畫返還資本。到 2025 年，我們預計將回購價值 5 億至 10 億美元的股票，同時評估全年的資本部署重點。

For context, in 2024, we repurchased approximately $700 million of shares after removing those shares repurchased in conjunction with our PCAPs transaction in the fourth quarter.

具體來說，在 2024 年，我們在扣除第四季度與 PCAP 交易一起回購的股票後，又回購了價值約 7 億美元的股票。

So now turning to page 12 in the presentation. I will finish with our expectations for capital levels at the end of 2025. We expect capital levels to continue to be strong and well above our targets, which are calibrated to maintain our current ratings.

現在翻到簡報的第 12 頁。最後，我將介紹我們對 2025 年底資本水準的預期。我們預計資本水準將繼續保持強勁並遠高於我們維持當前評級的目標。

This includes risk-based capital in our traditional subsidiaries to be between 425% and 450%, holding company liquidity to be greater than $2 billion and ample leverage capacity between 21% and 22%. As we always do, we will ensure a prudent approach to capital management and do not plan for sudden changes to our capital structure. That considered over time, we do plan to manage these metrics back down closer to targets.

這包括我們傳統子公司的風險資本在 425% 到 450% 之間，持有公司流動性超過 20 億美元，以及充足的槓桿能力在 21% 到 22% 之間。像往常一樣，我們將確保採取審慎的資本管理方式，並且不會計劃突然改變資本結構。考慮到這一點，隨著時間的推移，我們確實計劃將這些指標管理得更接近目標。

However, in the near term, this position grants us immense capital flexibility and allows us many options to further advance our business strategy and return more capital to shareholders. So to wrap up our prepared remarks, we are extremely pleased with how the company performed in 2024 and excited for the opportunities for our businesses in 2025. We will continue to deliver on our promises to more and more customers, create a desired workplace for our employees, and deliver industry-leading margins for our shareholders.

然而，在短期內，這一地位賦予了我們巨大的資本靈活性，並使我們有許多選擇來進一步推進我們的業務策略並向股東返還更多資本。因此，總結我們的準備好的發言，我們對公司在 2024 年的表現感到非常滿意，並對我們 2025 年的業務機會感到興奮。我們將繼續履行對越來越多客戶的承諾，為員工創造理想的工作環境，為股東帶來業界領先的利潤。

I will now turn it over to Rick for his closing comments before going to your questions.

在回答你們的問題之前，我現在將時間交給 Rick 來做最後總結。

Great. Thank you, Steve. As you can see, with 2024 in the books, 2025 is shaping up to be another great year for Unum and with continued momentum in our core business and our capital generation.

偉大的。謝謝你，史蒂夫。如您所見，隨著 2024 年的到來，2025 年將成為 Unum 的另一個偉大年份，我們的核心業務和資本創造將繼續保持良好勢頭。

Plenty of topics to cover this morning. So with that, we will move to your questions.

今天上午有很多話題要討論。因此，我們將開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Tom Gallagher, EVR.

(操作員指令) 湯姆·加拉格爾，EVR。

So Steve, one question I had. My first one is just on group disability. You said you expect it to remain favorable over the midterm. If you were to isolate and say, why is that? Because I think there's a broader concern it's going to revert to the mean get back into the 70s. What is it about the underlying that's really driving -- it sounds like there's been a structural change here. Is it really claim recovery? Is it incidents? Is it a combination of things?

史蒂夫，我有一個問題。我的第一個問題與群體殘障有關。您說您預計中期經濟成長將保持有利勢頭。如果你要孤立地問，那是為什麼呢？因為我認為人們更廣泛地擔心它會恢復到 70 年代的平均水平。真正的推動因素是什麼？這真的是理賠追償嗎？是事件嗎？它是多種事物的結合嗎？

And why don't you assume that price competition will erode the margin if it's as favorable? Or do you think your -- maybe your margins better than many peers. So that's not a threat? Any color on that? Thanks.

如果價格競爭如此有利，為什麼你不認為價格競爭會侵蝕利潤？或者您認為您的利潤率可能比許多同行都要高。那麼這不是威脅？有顏色嗎？謝謝。

Good morning, Tom, and I'll cover really just from a claims performance perspective, what we've been seeing and why that gives us confidence in the near to midterm. And then maybe Chris can talk a little bit more about the competitive market. We've gone through kind of the fourth-quarter selling season.

早安，湯姆，我將從索賠表現的角度介紹我們所看到的情況以及為什麼這讓我們對近期至中期充滿信心。然後克里斯也許可以多談談競爭市場。我們已經經歷了第四季的銷售旺季。

And so we have an updated read on pricing and the competition out there, and I'll let him cover that. So just to zoom out a little bit, group disability for the year had an actual benefit ratio that was right around 59%. And so although in the fourth quarter, it ticked up a little bit to 60.4%, it is well within any range of volatility that you might see quarter-to-quarter.

因此，我們對定價和競爭情況有了最新的了解，我會讓他來報道這一點。稍微擴大一點來看，今年團體殘障保險的實際福利比率約為 59%。因此，儘管在第四季度，該比例略有上升至 60.4%，但仍處於季度間波動範圍內。

So we continue to feel very comfortable about giving an outlook going into 2025, that would be in that low-60% benefit ratio range. And then what I would say is just the dynamics of the experience we're seeing. Incidence bounces around a little bit quarter-to-quarter, but I'd say, generally speaking, incidence is pretty much at levels that we would expect longer term and pretty consistent with what maybe we would have experienced pre-pandemic.

因此，我們仍然非常有信心地預測 2025 年的收益比率將處於 60% 的低點。我想說的只是我們所看到的經驗的動態。發病率每季都會有所波動，但我想說，總體而言，發病率基本上處於我們預期的長期水平，並且與我們在疫情前可能經歷的發病率相當一致。

So I would say we feel really good about that, and that's been relatively stable. From a recoveries perspective, that's really where we've seen the improvement. And that's been a decade-long improvement that we've seen there. It was clouded a little bit by some of volatility during the pandemic.

所以我想說我們對此感覺非常好，而且情況相對穩定。從復甦的角度來看，我們確實看到了改善。這是我們十年來所見證的進步。疫情期間的一些波動讓市場蒙上了一點陰影。

But as we came out of that in the '22, '23, '24 kind of period, we really saw continued improvement and that gets down to just our team. Them working with our customers, with employers, with physicians to figure out ways to get people back to work at a higher rate.

但當我們走出 22、23、24 年的困境時，我們確實看到了持續的進步，而這一切都歸功於我們的團隊。他們與我們的客戶、雇主、醫生合作，想出讓人們以更高的速度重返工作崗位的方法。

We've been able to apply data to better understand outcomes and to implement accommodations for those people to get the better outcomes and we're aligned -- people want to get back to work, we want them to get back to work. And we've been very successful with our people, with our technology to be able to do that at a higher rate.

我們已經能夠應用數據來更好地了解結果，並為那些人提供便利條件，以獲得更好的結果，而且我們是一致的——人們想重返工作崗位，我們也希望他們重返工作崗位。而且我們透過我們的員工和技術非常成功地以更高的速度實現了這一目標。

And for those reasons, we do think that performance is sustainable going forward because we've embedded that just into our claims management process.

基於這些原因，我們確實認為這種表現在未來是可持續的，因為我們已經將其嵌入到我們的索賠管理流程中。

And so then with that, I'll turn it over to Chris to just talk a little bit about the competitive environment and pricing and what that looks like going forward.

那麼，我會把話題交給克里斯，讓他簡單談一談競爭環境和定價，以及未來的前景。

Yeah. Thanks, Steve. Tom, thanks for the question. It absolutely remains a competitive environment we expect to operate in that type of world. But building on what Steve was saying around you've got an excellent operational performance. You do have a favorable attractive retain reality that employers are dealing with. They want a quality benefits package. They wanted to work really well for their employees and them as a customer.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。湯姆，謝謝你的提問。我們預計在這樣的世界中營運的競爭環境仍然存在。但根據史蒂夫所說的，你們已經獲得了出色的營運表現。您確實擁有雇主正在處理的有利而有吸引力的留任現實。他們想要優質的福利待遇。他們希望能為員工和顧客提供優質的服務。

And when you combine high-quality coverage with connectivity into the human capital management platforms or other technologies that are important to them, when you're solving challenges that are as important as leave and that's the reason maybe a customer came to you or they're considering staying, these are modestly different conversations than in the past or where price was more central to the conversation.

當你將高品質的覆蓋範圍與人力資本管理平台或其他對他們很重要的技術的連接性結合起來時，當你解決與離職一樣重要的挑戰時，這可能是客戶來找你或考慮留下的原因，這些對話與過去的對話略有不同，或者說價格在對話中更為重要。

Price is a part of the equation, though, there's no question. We want to charge a fair price. We want it to be stable over time. Customers appreciate that. And we just have a nice history of delivering both the value and price combination as it relates to our investments.

但毫無疑問，價格是因素之一。我們希望收取合理的價格。我們希望它能夠長期保持穩定。顧客對此表示讚賞。我們在投資方面擁有提供價值和價格組合的良好記錄。

That's helpful, guys. Thanks. And just my follow-up just on long-term care. The peer of yours Manulife announced another risk transfer deal in late '24 on a younger vintage block. How do you feel about the market right now? Do you -- is it getting better for risk transfer? Is the bid as spread still too wide? What do you think the prospects are for you '25 possibility?

夥計們，這很有幫助。謝謝。這只是我對長期照護的後續關注。您的同行宏利金融 (Manulife) 於 24 年底宣布了另一項針對較年輕的老式區塊的風險轉移協議。您對現在的市場有什麼看法？您是否認為風險轉移情況變得更好了？出價差仍然太大？您認為 25 年的前景如何？

Sure. Let me touch on that and be fairly consistent with how we've talked about in the past. One thing that did change in the quarter, we did see another transaction. So as we talked about, the first transaction we saw just over a year ago, we think that's good. We think that actually shows that the market is coming together and where you can actually have the right attributes of an LTC company, meeting somebody that we're willing to take on that risk.

當然。讓我談一下這一點，並且與我們過去討論的內容保持一致。本季確實發生了變化的一件事是，我們確實看到了另一筆交易。正如我們談到的，我們在一年多前看到的第一筆交易，我們認為這是很好的。我們認為這實際上表明市場正在成熟，您可以真正擁有長期信貸公司的正確屬性，並找到我們願意承擔風險的人。

Remember, the new development there is we're also bringing in other parties that are taking on some of the asset risk, which can enhance the overall proposition. So I think that those are both good transactions to see -- but as we talk about it, these transactions are hard, and we have to make sure that we're able to find the right partner to take on specific attributes of our block.

請記住，新的發展是我們還引入了其他方來承擔部分資產風險，這可以增強整體的主張。因此我認為這兩項交易都很好——但正如我們談論的那樣，這些交易很難，我們必須確保能夠找到合適的合作夥伴來承擔我們區塊的特定屬性。

The team has done a really good job of parsing the block, so we can really structure the block and something that we'd want to transfer from a risk perspective to see what the buyer is looking for and structure around that.

該團隊在解析區塊方面做得非常好，因此我們可以真正建立區塊以及我們想要從風險角度轉移的內容，以了解買家正在尋找什麼並圍繞此進行構建。

So all those are, I think, are very positive dynamics that are happening out there. But these are difficult transactions. And so we don't want to talk about anything of a particular time frame, but we will be active in the market. We will talk to a number of players out there.

所以我認為，所有這些都是正在發生的非常積極的動態。但這些都是困難的交易。因此，我們不想談論任何特定時間框架的事情，但我們將積極參與市場。我們將與許多球員進行交談。

And the deal has got to make sense for us as well for the longer term for our shareholders. But this is something we do think strategically is very important for our company to be off of the LTC risk. It's very unlike everything that we do. This is a legacy block of business -- and so we want to make sure that we're focusing on the core, which you've seen the results are very strong.

這筆交易對我們來說以及對我們的股東的長遠利益來說都必須是有意義的。但我們確實認為，從策略上來說，這對我們公司擺脫長期照護風險非常重要。這和我們所做的每一件事都不同。這是一項遺留業務，因此我們要確保專注於核心業務，正如您所看到的，其結果非常強勁。

And so we want to do both of those things, continue to run a great core business, and then work to transfer the risk of LTC to another party.

因此，我們希望同時完成這兩件事，繼續經營好核心業務，然後努力將 LTC 的風險轉移給另一方。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

My first question, is just on the capital side, right? I mean you guys -- your Holdco cash is going to grow during the year as is your RBC is going to expand. And yet you guys seem to be -- it seems a little bit conservative, right, with the buyback. I know there is a big range there. But -- are you guys just leaving some buffer depending upon what happens with -- on the M&A side? And if that is the case, can you just talk about some stuff that you guys might be considering with potential transactions for M&A?

我的第一個問題只是關於資本方面，對嗎？我的意思是，你們的 Holdco 現金將在一年內成長，而你們的 RBC 也將擴大。然而，你們似乎──對於回購，似乎有點保守。我知道那裡有很大的範圍。但是 — — 你們是否會根據併購方面的情況留下一些緩衝？如果是這樣的話，您能否談談您可能正在考慮的一些潛在併購交易？

Sure, Elyse. This is Rick. Let me take you through and first, I guess, this conversation with what Steve was taking through is the very, very strong capital generation. So you have to start with that. The businesses are generating a tremendous amount of capital. I think importantly, too, as we talked about 2023, was where we actually made a different move on long-term care to have that fully funded. So when you have that strong generation, you don't have those needs across long-term care. You've got a lot of choices to make.

當然，伊莉絲。這是里克。讓我帶您了解一下，首先，我想，史蒂夫所進行的這次談話是關於非常非常強大的資本創造。所以你必須從那裡開始。這些企業正在產生巨額資本。我認為同樣重要的是，正如我們談論的 2023 年，我們實際上在長期照護方面採取了不同的舉措，以確保其獲得全額資助。因此，當你擁有強大的一代時，你就不會擁有長期照護方面的那些需求。你有很多選擇。

And we've been very consistent to say first and foremost, priority, grow the core business. We've got a great franchise. You've heard about that today. How can we enhance that? How can we grow that? That's true organically, also true from an M&A perspective.

我們始終堅持首先要優先發展核心業務。我們擁有出色的特許經營權。今天你已經聽說這件事了。我們如何才能增強這一點？我們怎樣才能發展它？從有機角度而言是如此，從併購角度而言也是。

And so -- you asked about the types of things we look at M&A, really, it's about how do we continue to use those transactions to grow the premium line. Think about that as capabilities. Think about that as potentially distribution. And then certainly, our international businesses are places we'd like to continue to look to grow as well. So that's the acquisition front and that use.

所以 - 您問到我們在併購方面關注的事情類型，實際上，關鍵在於我們如何繼續利用這些交易來發展高端產品線。將其視為能力。將其視為潛在的分佈。當然，我們的國際業務也是我們希望繼續尋求成長的領域。這就是獲取前端和使用。

But then you get to the things we're going to do from a shareholder perspective, increasing our dividend rate is something we've done consistently over a longer period of time. We'll continue to look at that. And then from a share repurchase perspective, when you get through all of that, we've said we're going to be dynamic. So it is a wide range, $500 million to $1 billion. A lot will transpire over the course of this year and we want them to actually be responsive to whatever that environment brings forward to us.

但是從股東的角度來看我們要做的事情是，提高股息率是我們長期以來一直在做的事情。我們將繼續關注此事。然後從股票回購的角度來看，當你完成所有這些之後，我們說過我們將變得充滿活力。所以範圍很廣，從 5 億到 10 億美元。今年會發生很多事情，我們希望他們能真正對環境帶給我們的一切做出反應。

Last year was a good example of where we were more dynamic. We exceeded the amount that we had going into the year with our underlying $700 million and then a PCAP transaction, which brought that up close to $1 billion.

去年就是我們更有活力的一個很好的例子。我們的初始金額超過了年初的 7 億美元，再加上一筆 PCAP 交易，我們的初始金額接近 10 億美元。

So this is going to be an area we're going to be very active from a capital deployment perspective. I think in 2024, we showed that we will be dynamic, and we expect 2025 will shape up similarly.

因此，從資本配置的角度來看，這將是我們非常活躍的領域。我認為，在 2024 年，我們展現了活力，我們預計 2025 年也會有同樣的表現。

Thanks. And then on the voluntary side, right, the results were a little weaker in the Q4, but it sounds like you guys don't expect that to continue given the earnings guide for '25. Can you just provide a little bit more color on what went on there both in the Q4 and just the outlook for this year?

謝謝。然後從自願方面來看，第四季的結果稍微弱一些，但聽起來你們並不認為這種情況會持續下去，因為已經有了 25 年的獲利指南。您能否詳細介紹一下第四季的情況以及今年的前景？

Yeah, this is Steve. I'll take that one. Yeah, we -- as we look back over multiple quarters, we've seen this line of business have some volatility in it. A lot of that volatility was focused, I'd say, on the actual voluntary benefits product line within supplemental and voluntary. And it's really been different things as we look quarter-to-quarter, different products that are in there that we've seen some unfavorable volatility.

是的，這是史蒂夫。我要那個。是的，回顧過去多個季度，我們發現這條業務線有些波動。我想說，很多波動都集中在補充和自願福利中的實際自願福利產品線上。從季度來看，情況確實有所不同，我們看到不同產品出現了一些不利的波動。

If you go all the way back to the first part of last year, the earnings power of that block was above what our expectations would have been at $120 million per quarter. So it bounces around a little bit, but nothing that we see in there, we feel like is systemic and would continue going forward.

如果回顧去年上半年，該板塊的獲利能力高於我們預期的每季 1.2 億美元。因此，它會稍微波動一下，但我們看不到其中存在什麼系統性的東西，而且會繼續向前發展。

And so right now, when we think about the earnings power of that business, the $120 million per quarter seems like a pretty reasonable level that we can expect going into 2025, and we'll just have to see how that plays out as we get into 2025.

因此，現在，當我們考慮該業務的盈利能力時，每季度 1.2 億美元的盈利能力似乎是一個相當合理的水平，我們可以預期這個水平將持續到 2025 年，我們只需要觀察它在 2025 年的表現如何。

I will say that all the lines that are within supplemental and voluntary, they continue to be good growth engines for us as an organization. We really like those businesses. They're very much meeting the market. And I would say, are growing at a faster pace than what our group benefits businesses are. And so we really like those businesses.

我想說的是，所有補充和自願性的項目，將繼續成為我們組織良好的成長引擎。我們確實喜歡這些企業。他們非常滿足市場需求。我想說的是，他們的成長速度比我們的團體福利業務還要快。所以我們真的很喜歡這些企業。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

I wanted to ask again on pricing trends for Unum US for 2025 renewals. Can you maybe just give us a little bit of color, particularly in group disability and group life -- and if you could maybe just touch on how long that renewal pricing is being locked in just at a high level.

我想再次詢問 Unum US 2025 年續約的定價趨勢。您能否給我們一些詳細信息，特別是在團體傷殘和團體人壽方面，您是否可以簡單談談續保價格在高位鎖定了多長時間。

Yes. Thanks, Wes, it's Chris. So a good topic to talk about just in general how the block performed. If you step back and you look at really what was incredible persistency in '24. We talked about that a little bit around our capability is making a real difference, but also just strong performance over time stable pricing, et cetera, et cetera.

是的。謝謝，韋斯，我是克里斯。因此，一個很好的話題就是整體討論一下區塊是如何執行的。如果你退一步思考，你會發現 1924 年的堅持是多麼令人難以置信。我們討論了一下我們的能力是否真的發揮了作用，以及隨著時間的推移是否能保持強勁的表現、穩定的價格等等。

There was some element of bid projects that have been put off for a while. We saw more of those in '24, where cases came to market that hadn't come out. For us, that's a little bit of a double-edged sword because obviously, in the sales side, we really enjoyed a strong one-one. So as some of those projects were coming out. We won some. On the flip side, some of our cases also went to market just for overdue market checks or the like.

一些招標項目已經被推遲了一段時間。我們在 2024 年看到了更多這樣的情況，一些還沒有推出的手機殼進入市場。對我們來說，這有點像一把雙面刃，因為顯然在銷售方面，我們確實享受了強勁的一對一銷售業績。隨著一些項目的推出。我們贏了一些。另一方面，我們的一些案件也只是為了逾期的市場檢查或類似情況而進入市場。

Where we can tie things to investments and longer-term strategies, we feel really good about it being a driver of persistency. On the flip, as I said to the earlier question from Tom, it's a competitive market, and we are looking to continue to get a fair price that's stable over time. We feel very good that we can do that. We are really thrilled with the sales in fourth quarter.

當我們將事物與投資和長期策略聯繫起來時，我們感到非常高興，因為它可以成為堅持不懈的驅動力。另一方面，正如我之前回答湯姆的問題時所說的那樣，這是一個競爭激烈的市場，我們希望繼續獲得長期穩定的公平價格。我們很高興能夠做到這一點。我們對第四季度的銷售情況感到非常高興。

We think that that's a nice combination of a really coordinated strategy across the company that shows up well for our customers, and we think that's something we can build on.

我們認為，這是整個公司真正協調的策略的良好組合，這對我們的客戶來說非常有利，我們認為這是我們可以繼續發展的。

Got it. And maybe on long-term care in terms of premium rate increases, I think you're about 50% through your current program. I'm curious, it seems like that's going pretty quickly. So how does that pace compared to what you originally thought and what's embedded in reserves? And I guess separately, is -- given your need of no more capital in the business, your level of protection, do you expect this to be -- you're largely done with rate increases? Or do you continue to expect those to go on over time if they're actuarially justified?

知道了。也許就長期照護的保費率上漲而言，我認為您目前的計劃已經完成了約 50%。我很好奇，看起來事情進展得很快。那麼與您最初的想法以及儲備量相比，這一速度如何？另外我想問的是，考慮到你們不再需要更多的業務資本，你們的保護水平，你們是否預計你們的利率上調基本上已經完成了？或者，如果這些情況在精算上合理的話，您是否會繼續預期它們會隨著時間的推移而持續下去？

Right. Yeah. And you're right. We're very happy with the progress that we've seen so far since last fall. And yeah, reiterate the progress that we've made. We're a little over 50% through the current best estimate assumption that is incorporated into our reserve right now.

正確的。是的。你說得對。我們對自去年秋天以來所取得的進展感到非常高興。是的，重申我們所取得的進展。我們目前的儲備金已超過目前最佳估計假設的 50%。

I will say, between then and now, we have had some very large state approvals. We were expecting those, but those did come through in the fourth quarter and have been reflected in our statistics there. And as such, I wouldn't expect the pace going forward over the next few years to be at that level. We tend to get these approvals and get them implemented over a three- to five-year period when we launch a program.

我想說，從那時到現在，我們已經獲得了一些非常重大的國家批准。我們已經預料到了這些，但這些確實在第四季度實現了，並反映在我們的統計數據中。因此，我預計未來幾年的發展速度不會達到那個水準。當我們啟動一個專案時，我們往往會獲得這些批准，並在三到五年的時間內實施它們。

I think that still feels like a reasonable time line. With that said, we are very happy that we're able to get some pretty large ones over the finish line and very happy with the progress that we have made. Your question just about not launching future programs, that's always really just dependent on what we see emerge from the product.

我認為這仍然是一個合理的時間表。話雖如此，我們仍然很高興能夠完成一些相當大的任務，並且對我們所取得的進展感到非常高興。您的問題只是關於不推出未來的計劃，這實際上始終取決於我們從產品中看到的結果。

And also we're continually looking at opportunities to maximize that program. So I would never say never on that because we're consistently challenging where we might be able to go back to states and get fair returns on this product line.

而且我們也在不斷尋找機會來最大化該計劃。所以我永遠不會說永遠不會，因為我們一直在挑戰，我們可能能夠回到各州並獲得該產品線的公平回報。

Joe Horwitz, Dowling & Partners.

喬‧霍維茲 (Joe Horwitz)，道林及合夥人。

I want to go back to the voluntary benefits business. So we've heard other key players call out expectations for higher loss ratios moving forward. I think it was two years ago, you guys put out a benefit ratio target of 40% to 43% for the VB business. Is that still the correct way to think about this business? Or has something fundamentally changed to drive benefits higher, maybe the competitive environment or something?

我想重返自願福利業務。因此，我們聽到其他關鍵參與者呼籲未來損失率上升。我想是兩年前，你們為 VB 業務提出了 40% 到 43% 的收益率目標。這仍然是思考這個生意的正確方式嗎？或者是否發生了一些根本性的變化，導致收益增加，例如競爭環境或其他什麼？

Yeah. I would say probably we would peg that somewhere closer to the mid-40%s right now from a benefit ratio going forward. So modestly higher -- but we still feel very good about the returns that we're getting on that line of business. And I feel very good about just the earnings power going forward. So that's probably a good planning assumption.

是的。我想說，從未來的福利比率來看，我們可能會將這個數字定在接近 45% 左右。雖然略高了一些，但我們對這項業務的回報仍然感到非常滿意。我對未來的獲利能力感到非常滿意。所以這可能是個很好的規劃假設。

Okay. And then just shifting gears to US group sales. I guess how much of the strong sales at one-one were associated with customers utilizing capabilities like HR Connect or Total Leave?

好的。然後轉向美國集團銷售。我猜想 One-one 的強勁銷售業績有多少是與客戶使用 HR Connect 或 Total Leave 等功能有關的？

Yes, Joel, Chris again. Thanks for the question. Let me start by saying sales up market were extremely strong, and that's chance for us to go in and talk about really important topics like the human capital management platform and what they're trying to do with it, how we can incorporate our capabilities.

是的，喬爾，又是克里斯。謝謝你的提問。首先我要說的是，高端市場的銷售非常強勁，這是我們深入討論真正重要話題的機會，例如人力資本管理平台以及他們試圖用它做什麼，我們如何整合我們的能力。

Same with leave management, you've got much more access to the customer to talk about long-term solutions that we've been investing in and when they're centered on problems like leave management, it gets a lot of attention.

與休假管理一樣，您可以更多地接觸客戶，討論我們一直在投資的長期解決方案，當他們圍繞休假管理等問題進行討論時，就會引起很多關注。

So to affirm your point in the question, strategically aligned sales continue to be really critical in terms of how we are winning new business, and we are more and more excited to talk about those things as they continue to get better after ongoing investment over time. And that's -- those are topics we've been investing in for a long time.

因此，為了確認你在問題中的觀點，就我們如何贏得新業務而言，戰略一致的銷售仍然至關重要，並且我們越來越高興談論這些事情，因為它們隨著時間的推移不斷投資而變得越來越好。這些都是我們長期以來一直在投資的主題。

As you move through mid-market, are still critically important. But you start to add in things like broker distribution platforms that are important and smaller customers rely more on their distributors to do work for them. So we've targeted broker platforms that can really help with their execution on behalf of their customers and we're starting to see incredible progress there.

當你進入中端市場時，仍然至關重要。但你開始加入諸如經紀人分銷平台之類的重要因素，而小客戶則更依賴經銷商為他們工作。因此，我們瞄準了能夠真正幫助他們代表客戶執行交易的經紀平台，我們開始看到令人難以置信的進展。

We're really pleased with how that's working in the smaller and mid-market -- we've even got some nice traction with our Colonial partners where they're strong play with the Gather platform, which Rick referenced incorporates employer funded group products from Unum is starting to actually make a market in the marketplace, and that's a good thing. So the security of your question is right on capabilities matter a lot to us.

我們對其在小型和中型市場中的運作方式感到非常滿意——我們甚至與 Colonial 合作夥伴建立了良好的合作關係，他們在 Gather 平台上發揮了很大的作用，Rick 提到的該平台結合了 Unum 的雇主資助的團體產品，實際上開始在市場上佔據一席之地，這是一件好事。所以你問題的安全是正確的，能力對我們來說非常重要。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇，派珀·桑德勒。

Other market participants have begun more meaningfully talking about investing leave management capabilities. Can you talk about the continual investment that's going on to support HR Connect, Gather in the whole suite into the capabilities? And what proprietary moats there are that third-party products off the shelf fail to replicate? Thank you.

其他市場參與者已經開始更有意義地談論投資休假管理能力。您能否談談為支援 HR Connect、Gather 全套功能而進行的持續投資？那麼，有哪些專有的護城河是現成的第三方產品無法複製的呢？謝謝。

Yeah, John, leave management is -- it is the number-one or two, put it behind the cost of health care. It's up there for every employer. If I were to step way back, we've been in the leave management business for literally decades. And it starts with FMLA many, many years ago where employers needed assistance just to manage something that was new and different, but it's evolved to become an extremely complex set of issues depending on how many states you're in as an employer, what your own motivations are for corporate leaves and how you want to handle them.

是的，約翰，休假管理是第一或第二重要的，它排在醫療成本之後。它對每個雇主都適用。如果我回顧一下，我們從事休假管理業務已經有幾十年了。它始於許多年前的 FMLA，當時雇主需要幫助來管理一些新的和不同的東西，但它已經演變成一系列極其複雜的問題，取決於你作為雇主在多少個州，你申請公司休假的動機是什麼，以及你想如何處理它們。

And our experience, not only being in the leave business for many, many years, but also being experts in the disability business, which is a significant part of leave management, there are a lot of leaves that are associated with the employees own condition give us a real advantage.

而且，我們的經驗不僅在於我們在休假業務方面有很多年的經驗，而且我們也是殘疾人業務方面的專家，而殘疾人業務是休假管理的重要組成部分，很多與員工自身狀況相關的休假給了我們真正的優勢。

So the competitive votes start with our own experience and what we're building on in the number of years of investment and then couple that with a real concentration on the ecosystems that employers want to use to manage their employee populations and making investments in very specific -- what I would call winning platforms of choice, so that we can act, interact and exchange information with literally right up to their frontline managers so that they have a good handle on what's happening with their employees, when they'll be back to work, what the protocols are around staffing that they're going to need to take hold of.

因此，競爭性投票始於我們自己的經驗以及我們在多年投資中所建立的基礎，然後將其與雇主想要用來管理員工群體的生態系統的真正關注相結合，並對非常具體的平台進行投資——我稱之為成功的選擇平台，以便我們能夠採取行動、互動和與他們的一線經理交換信息，以便他們能夠很好地了解員工的情況，何時可以重返工作崗位，以及他們需要工作的協議。

These become somewhat indispensable tools for employers. And frankly, it's a really fun way to sell because you're getting into expert consulting at where we can make a real difference for our broker consultant partners and their employers. Well, let me just finish by saying we spent a lot of time on an end-to-end strategy all the way through our company, in culminating with our sales and client management teams to make sure they're the best in the business of being able to incorporate these solutions for the benefit of brokers, consultants and customers.

這些對雇主來說已經成為了不可或缺的工具。坦白說，這是一種非常有趣的銷售方式，因為您可以獲得專家諮詢，我們可以為我們的經紀顧問合作夥伴及其雇主帶來真正的改變。好吧，最後我想說的是，我們公司花了很多時間制定端到端策略，最終與我們的銷售和客戶管理團隊一起確保他們在業務中做到最好，能夠整合這些解決方案，使經紀人、顧問和客戶受益。

John, it's Steve. The only thing that I'd add, just there's a question in there just about the financial commitment to investing in these types of technologies. And I'll take Total Leave, for an example, we've been investing in that for five, six years. We brought up to market a few years ago. And that's really incorporated into the earnings power of our statutory companies, and that's been embedded in that.

約翰，我是史蒂夫。我唯一想補充的是，這裡面有一個問題，是關於對這類技術進行投資的財務承諾。以 Total Leave 為例，我們已經對該企業進行了五、六年的投資。我們幾年前就將其推向市場。這確實已融入我們法定公司的盈利能力之中，並且已經根深蒂固。

And so when I think about the outlook going into next year of $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion of statutory earnings, we're funding that within that capital generation, and we have been for some time. So we're basically utilizing our current scale to be able to make those investments and then still generate very, very healthy returns and capital redeployment.

因此，當我想到明年的法定收益前景為 13 億至 16 億美元時，我們會在資本生成範圍內為其提供資金，而且我們這樣做已經有一段時間了。因此，我們基本上利用我們目前的規模來進行這些投資，然後仍然產生非常非常健康的回報和資本重新部署。

And my follow-up question: can you talk about the market dynamics in the core market versus the large case market feels like there's been a bit of a bifurcation and sales growth between those two that have emerged over the last year?

我的後續問題是：您能談談核心市場與大型箱包市場的市場動態嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, John. We actually -- certainly, National Client Group sales over 200 stood out, but that's a lot of winning of upper mid and national client group level customers, again, tied to capabilities. One, is the biggest date for that, and we saw a really nice influx of new business there this year. On a core -- from a core basis, though, we are really pleased with what essentially is double-digit sales growth for group in the quarter. You need to net out the stop-loss sales from the prior year to see that growth.

是的。謝謝，約翰。實際上，我們確實——全國客戶群銷售額超過 200 的成績十分突出，但這也意味著我們贏得了許多中上層和全國客戶群級別的客戶，這同樣與能力有關。一是最重要的日期，今年我們看到了大量的新業務湧入。從核心基礎來看，我們對本季集團兩位數的銷售成長感到非常高興。您需要扣除上一年的停損銷售才能看到成長。

But mid-market, when we talk about Workforce Now platform of ADP and you look at where Workday is headed in terms of taking their capabilities down into the mid and smaller end of the market, we do see those things stand out. We invest heavily in the bundles down market around, as I said, the broker distributed platforms and also our own Unum.

但在中端市場，當我們談論 ADP 的 Workforce Now 平台時，我們會看看 Workday 在將其功能帶入中端和小型市場方面的發展方向，我們確實看到這些方面非常突出。正如我所說，我們在捆綁市場方面投入了大量資金，包括經紀人分散式平台以及我們自己的 Unum。

We know that there's more work or more upside associated with that. So sales growth was good. The bundle is working. We love our portfolio of products. This particular quarter did -- NCG did shine, but we feel really good about the balance between both.

我們知道，這會帶來更多的工作量，也會帶來更多的好處。因此銷售成長良好。該捆綁包正在運行。我們喜愛我們的產品組合。這個季度確實如此——NCG 確實表現出色，但我們對兩者之間的平衡感到非常滿意。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格（Ryan Krueger），KBW。

Unum US premium growth decelerated during the course of 2024, including in the fourth quarter. It looks like you expect a reversion back higher in 2025. Is that just a function of the timing of how sales has come through over the last year? Or is there something else going on that depressed premium growth in the last quarter or two?

Unum 美國保費成長在 2024 年期間有所放緩，包括第四季。看起來您預計 2025 年會回升。這只是去年銷售時間的變化嗎？或者是否有其他因素導致過去一、兩個季度保費成長受到抑制？

Yeah, Ryan, it's Steve. There's not some specific in the fourth quarter. There's some seasonal recognition things that occur. But I just zoom back 5% growth for the full year, and we feel really good about growth going into 2025, and it may vary a little bit quarter-to-quarter, but feel really good that we can continue to grow those businesses.

是的，瑞安，我是史蒂夫。第四季沒有什麼具體消息。會發生一些季節性識別的事情。但我只是將全年成長率下調了 5%，我們對 2025 年的成長感到非常樂觀，雖然每個季度可能會略有不同，但我們對能夠繼續發展這些業務感到非常高興。

Got it. Thanks. And then can you give a little bit more color on what is driving the expected Colonial Life sales turnaround in 2025?

知道了。謝謝。那麼，您能否更詳細地介紹一下預計 2025 年 Colonial Life 銷售將出現改善的因素？

Yes, Ryan, it's Tim. Thanks for the question. So let me start with '24 first. clearly, '24 was not the year we expected from a sales growth perspective. In the fourth quarter, we were up against an extremely strong fourth quarter in 2023 with higher than 11%. And growth in that quarter. That was driven by the large and jumbo market.

是的，瑞安，我是提姆。謝謝你的提問。因此我首先從 '24 開始。顯然，從銷售成長角度來看，2024 年並不是我們預期的一年。在第四季度，我們面臨 2023 年第四季極其強勁的成長（超過 11%）。並且該季度實現了成長。這是由龐大而巨大的市場所推動的。

So we had some really good success in '23 with a couple of extraordinarily large clients. Maybe just building on Chris' point from the question from John, on the Colonial Life brand, we view the large case market as being an opportunistic market, and we've been pretty consistent about saying that through the years. We want to grow in large case, but only where it makes sense from a profitability perspective for us.

因此，我們在 23 年與幾個非常大的客戶合作取得了非常好的成功。也許只是基於克里斯從約翰的問題中提出的觀點，關於 Colonial Life 品牌，我們將大箱市場視為一個機會主義市場，而且多年來我們一直非常一致地這樣說。我們希望在更大範圍內實現成長，但前提是這對我們來說從獲利角度來看是合理的。

So premium growth last year, as Steve pointed out, but it's worth reiterating 3.3% in the range that we gave you guys earlier last year. That was driven by strong persistency and pretty good results at 23%. And then that led to extremely strong earnings, as Steve pointed out, from high levels of premium benefits were favorable and expense management was really good as well.

正如史蒂夫所指出的，去年的保費有所增長，但值得重申的是，我們去年早些時候給出的範圍內的增長率為 3.3%。這是由強大的毅力和 23% 的相當不錯的成績所推動的。正如史蒂夫指出的那樣，這帶來了極其強勁的盈利，因為高水準的保費福利是有利的，而且費用管理也非常好。

As we flip the page to 2025, focus specifically on the Colonial brand, we are excited about the progress we're seeing with the strategic investments that Rick mentioned and Chris and Steve had touched on as well. Gather platform product sales are growing very, very rapidly. We're seeing good growth in sales from Colony Life agents on the unit product portfolio, which is really important to us going forward that we are able to offer an integrated solution to our clients.

當我們翻開 2025 年的新篇章，特別關注 Colonial 品牌時，我們對 Rick 提到的以及 Chris 和 Steve 也談到的策略投資所取得的進展感到非常興奮。Gather平台產品的銷售成長非常非常迅速。我們看到 Colony Life 代理商的單位產品組合銷售額正在良好成長，這對於我們未來能夠為客戶提供整合解決方案而言非常重要。

And what's really neat is when our agents sell on life voluntary, Unum ancillary, and put it on Gather, our client gets a single bill rather than numerous bills. So we're excited about the opportunities there. We are seeing very strong adoption of our agent productivity tool. We call it Agent Assist. And when that is coupled with the fact that new agent recruiting was up 12% in the fourth quarter, in fact, the highest quarter of recruiting that we've had in recent memory. We like our chances in 2025.

真正巧妙的是，當我們的代理商在人壽自願險、Unum 輔助險上進行銷售並將其放在 Gather 上時，我們的客戶只會收到一張賬單，而不是多張賬單。所以我們對那裡的機會感到非常興奮。我們看到代理生產力工具的採用率非常高。我們稱之為代理助手。再加上第四季度新代理商招募量成長了 12%，這實際上是近期招募量最高的一個季度。我們看好 2025 年的機會。

Perhaps most importantly, though, in the fourth quarter of last year, we did name a new SVP of Sales. He has a very long history of success in our Colonial Life sales organizations in virtually every role he's been in. She started at an entry level and worked our way up and was most recently the Vice President of Sales for one of our regions. She's a transformative execution-focused leader and we're confident that she will be able to help us in 2025.

不過，也許最重要的是，去年第四季度，我們確實任命了一位新的銷售資深副總裁。在我們 Colonial Life 銷售組織中，他擔任過的幾乎每個職位都取得了巨大成功。她從基層做起，一步步晉升，最近成為我們某個地區的銷售副總裁。她是一位注重變革執行的領導者，我們相信她能夠在 2025 年幫助我們。

We did only name her in the fourth quarter, so it may take a quarter or two to get to the place that we want to be, but we're confident we can be in the range that Steve shared.

我們只是在第四季度才透露了她的名字，因此可能需要一兩個季度才能達到我們想要的位置，但我們相信我們可以達到史蒂夫所分享的範圍內。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

First one I had is on the Unum US premium growth. I was actually interested if you could talk about persistency a bit. I mean, just in light of sales being as strong as they were this quarter, and persistency looked like it was a pretty good outcome, too, probably on the back of some of the capability advantages that you have.

我第一個想到的是關於 Unum 美國保費成長的問題。如果您能稍微談一下持久性的話我真的很感興趣。我的意思是，鑑於本季銷售強勁，而且持久性看起來也是一個相當不錯的結果，這可能是得益於你們所擁有的一些能力優勢。

And so I just wanted to understand like how that's translating into premium growth. It's always a little hard from the outside to do that conversion. And what's assumed in the premium growth guidance you've given us for 2025 in terms of persistency.

所以我只是想了解這如何轉化為保費增長。從外部來看，這種轉變總是有點困難。您為我們提供的 2025 年保費成長指引中，在持續性方面有何假設？

Yeah, Alex, Chris, I probably wasn't clear enough in my previous answer on kind of that double-edged sword when you think about some of the pent-up demand of either market checks or RFPs related to solutions that hadn't hit the market in, say, '22, '23 that drove nice persistency in '24 for us, but there was more a larger case in the market.

是的，亞歷克斯、克里斯，我之前的回答可能沒有足夠清楚地說明這種雙刃劍的含義，當你想到一些被壓抑的需求，無論是市場檢查還是與尚未進入市場的解決方案相關的 RFP，比如 22、23 年，這為我們在 24 年帶來了良好的持久性，但市場上還有更大的案例。

And we won quite successfully, but it also -- the doubling -- the other side of the coin is that some of our in-force block was in play. And any time it's in play, you do run the risk of losing a customer. So when I think about super strong persistency in '24, I would think about much more normalized persistency in '25, and that's part of it. We still get excited about capabilities and solutions when we're solving bigger problems that customers will stick longer. But that's only a portion of our block, and it will take time to make that be a more and more significant part of our overall business.

我們贏得非常成功，但同時，加倍的因素也意味著我們的部分強力防守發揮了作用。只要這種情況發生，您就有可能失去客戶。因此，當我考慮 24 年的超強持久性時，我會考慮 25 年更規範化的持久性，這就是其中的一部分。當我們解決客戶願意堅持更長時間的更大問題時，我們仍然對能力和解決方案感到興奮。但這只是我們業務的一部分，要使其成為我們整體業務中越來越重要的一部分還需要時間。

And Alex, just to make it clear. So on renewal kind of the results of that will be reflected in our first quarter persistency. And so as we go into next year, we'll report the results of that as we go forward.

亞歷克斯，我只是想說清楚。因此，更新的結果將反映在我們第一季的持續性。因此，當我們進入明年時，我們將會報告相關結果。

Got you. Okay. And then I had one more on long-term care. Appreciate the way that you guys think about it in terms of protection against your base case. But I did think it was interesting that in this around $200 million lower impact if that's tax related and the tax rate is around 20%, then assumes that the equity in Fairwind got significantly better.

明白了。好的。然後我又談了一次關於長期照護的問題。我很欣賞你們從保護基本情況的角度來思考這個問題。但我確實認為有趣的是，在這個約 2 億美元的較低影響中，如果這與稅收有關，且稅率約為 20%，那麼假設 Fairwind 的股權狀況顯著改善。

I'm just interested where that sits at this point? I mean how does that compare to a statutory reserve? I think some of these metrics may help us bring things and particularly when we're comparing and contrasting to some of the transactions Manulife done and so forth?

我只是想知道現在的情況如何？我的意思是，這與法定儲備金相比如何？我認為其中一些指標可能有助於我們取得一些成果，特別是當我們將其與宏利所做的一些交易進行比較和對比時？

Yes, this is Steve. I'll take that one. So you're right. I mean we anticipated coming into 2024 that given where rates were and how that works its way into our new money rate assumption for the premium deficiency reserve that we would see our discount rate over time move up due to that fact.

是的，這是史蒂夫。我要那個。所以你是對的。我的意思是，我們預計到 2024 年，考慮到利率水準以及它如何影響我們對保費缺口準備金的新貨幣利率假設，我們會看到我們的折現率隨著時間的推移而上升。

And we did see that as we went through '24 and finalized what would be our year-end valuation on the premium deficiency reserve. So we are able to release some premium deficiency reserve during the period. The interest rate component of that would be very consistent with what you would have seen in some of the sensitivities that we provided, I guess, last year as part of our outlook meeting, when those basically transition though from the reserve to in essence capital, it is tax expense.

我們確實看到了這一點，因為我們經歷了 24 年，並最終確定了保費不足準備金的年底估值。因此，我們能夠在此期間釋放一些保費不足準備金。其中的利率成分與您在去年我們展望會議上提供的一些敏感度因素非常一致，當這些因素基本上從儲備轉變為資本時，它就是稅費。

So you're thinking about it right. And that's why we're indifferent to whether it resides in reserves or capital. And that's why we're not really breaking those two down and reporting those separately. We think about it in aggregate as the protection we have. And importantly, we think of it that way because we're leaving all of that excess capital in Fairwind.

所以你想的是對的。這就是為什麼我們對它是以儲備還是資本形式存在並不關心。這就是為什麼我們實際上沒有將這兩者分開並分別報告。我們從整體上將其視為我們所擁有的保護。重要的是，我們這樣想是因為我們將所有多餘的資本都留在了 Fairwind。

And so you're right, it's a simple math of the protection that we report went from 2.8 to 2.6 because there are some tax friction as we release those premium deficiency reserves during the year.

所以你是對的，這是一個簡單的計算，我們報告的保護率從 2.8 下降到了 2.6，因為在我們年內釋放這些保費不足準備金時出現了一些稅收摩擦。

The other thing that I would just note is the sensitivities that we do give -- those were a multiple year sensitivity as those rates work their way to the calculation. That's not necessarily a one-year event. And so you'll see that recognition kind of over multiple years as it works its way into the three-year trailing average.

我要注意的另一件事是我們給出的敏感度 - 這些是多年的敏感度，因為這些利率會在計算過程中發揮作用。這不一定是一年一次的活動。因此，您會看到這種認可度會持續多年，並逐漸融入三年的平均值中。

Suneet Kamath, Jeffries.

蘇尼特·卡馬斯（Suneet Kamath），傑弗里斯（Jeffries）。

I wanted to start with long-term care. I mean one of the things that we saw with the two Manulife deals were the company bundled some asset-intensive business with the long-term care in order to transact. And I don't think about Unum as having a bunch of asset-intensive business. But I guess how are you thinking about the possibility of bundling some non-LTC exposure if you were to transact?

我想從長期照護開始。我的意思是，我們在宏利兩筆交易中看到的一個現像是，該公司將一些資產密集型業務與長期照護業務捆綁在一起進行交易。我也不認為 Unum 擁有大量資產密集型業務。但我想，如果您要進行交易，您會如何考慮捆綁一些非 LTC 風險的可能性？

Thanks, Suneet. I think we've talked about this in the past, but talking about we do have multiple lines of business out there. So we don't see that as a constraint in terms of what that might look like. Now we don't we don't have asset-intensive maybe annuity-type businesses, but we've got some good returning businesses that would have that potential.

謝謝，Suneet。我想我們過去已經談論過這個問題，但我們確實有多條業務線。因此，就其外觀而言，我們並不認為這是限制因素。現在我們沒有資產密集的年金型業務，但我們有一些具有潛力的回報良好的業務。

And so I think that -- like I said, I don't think it's a constraint. I think it would be part of consideration as we talk to other counterparties to put together something that makes sense for them, make sense for us, and overall.

所以我認為——就像我說的，我不認為這是一個限制。我認為這是我們在與其他交易對手交談時考慮的一部分，以製定對他們、對我們以及整體都有意義的方案。

Okay. Got it. And then I guess on your capital. I mean, I think, Rick, you said your top priority is organic growth, which makes sense. But -- do you have a rule of thumb or helping us frame how much capital do you need to support the growth plans that you have in your 2025 outlook?

好的。知道了。然後我猜是你的資本。我的意思是，我認為，里克，你說你的首要任務是有機成長，這是有道理的。但是—您是否有一個經驗法則或幫助我們確定需要多少資本來支持您在 2025 年展望中所製定的成長計劃？

Yeah. I think that when you look at the capital that's needed for organic growth, it's pretty consistent. And so without breaking that out specifically, I think year-over-year, that hasn't changed much. And so if we -- we're able to do a whole lot more would it consume a lot more capital.

是的。我認為，當你觀察有機成長所需的資本時，它是相當一致的。因此，如果我們不具體說明的話，我認為與去年同期相比，情況並沒有太大變化。所以如果我們能夠做更多的事情，那會消耗更多的資本。

It depends on the line, but many, many of our lines are actually pretty low consumptive from a capital perspective. So we say that, we want to do that. We want to continue to invest in those lines, but that's not necessarily going to be the largest use of what we have out there. So -- but we just want to make sure that, that is the priority. It is about growth.

這取決於生產線，但從資本角度來看，我們的許多生產線的消耗實際上都非常低。所以我們這麼說，我們也想這麼做。我們希望繼續對這些生產線進行投資，但這不一定是我們現有生產線的最大用途。所以——但我們只是想確保這是優先事項。這是關於成長的事。

And then you can leave the M&A type of things that we can add into that to also grow the premium line. So hopefully, that's helpful, but this growth engine has been very consistent. We showed you the chart of premiums. And as a result, the capital consumptive nature of it has been a steady state for many, many years.

然後，您可以保留我們可以添加到其中的併購類型的項目，以擴大高端產品線。所以希望這會有所幫助，但這個成長引擎一直非常穩定。我們向您展示了保費圖表。因此，它的資本消耗性質多年來一直保持穩定狀態。

If I could just sneak one more in, just relatedly. M&A-wise, what size transaction would you guys be thinking about? I think in the past, you talked about a couple of hundred million dollars, but I just want to get an update there.

如果我可以再偷偷地加一個，只是相關的。從併購角度來看，你們會考慮多大規模的交易？我想過去你談過幾億美元，但我只是想了解最新情況。

Yeah. I think that, that would probably be consistent. And we really haven't talked about the size so much as the type of transaction we look at, and these are capability-driven type transactions. It could be a technology, it could be something on distribution side, which would denote a little bit smaller transaction.

是的。我認為，這可能是一致的。我們實際上並沒有談論交易的規模，而是談論我們所關注的交易類型，這些都是能力驅動類型的交易。它可能是一種技術，也可能是分銷方面的某種東西，表示交易規模稍微小一些。

Would we move up from that? I don't think materially, it's all going to be all about growing that premium line. So we try to stay away from the exact size, but I think the types of transactions that we talk about type of companies we'd like to buy are probably in that smaller range.

我們能從那時起繼續進步嗎？我認為從實質上來說，這一切都與擴大高端產品線無關。因此，我們試圖避免談論確切的規模，但我認為，我們談論的想要收購的公司類型的交易類型可能在較小的範圍內。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬許‧尚克（Josh Shanker）。

I want to talk a little bit at the beginning of the Q&A, and we talked about the competitive environment and how you're thinking about pricing. I want to understand, are you thinking that you're pricing current disability in the low-60s type benefit ratio range, but you expect that the favorability trends will continue and they might be better than that. Or are you pricing right now for a sub-60 type experience?

我想在問答開始時談一點，我們談到了競爭環境以及您對定價的看法。我想了解的是，您是否認為您將當前的殘障保險定價在 60 年代初期的福利比率範圍內，但您預計有利趨勢將會持續下去，而且可能會比這更好。還是您現在的價格是針對 60 以下類型的體驗？

Yeah. Josh, thanks for the question. Again, stepping back, we have the power through the bundle of both solutions and products that we can put together to be flexible with our customers to set that long-term pricing plan at a place that they're comfortable and that we can expect to have. Sometimes you've got to make rate adjustments up and down, but to make them in the more modest sense.

是的。喬希，謝謝你的提問。再次退一步來說，透過整合解決方案和產品，我們能夠靈活地與客戶一起制定他們感到舒適且我們可以預期的長期定價計劃。有時你必須對利率進行上調或下調，但要以較為溫和的方式進行。

And again, when you're talking about bundling of things like lead management or ACM capabilities, it does take a little bit of the bottom line nature of the conversation away, which is a good thing. So -- we're counting on our claims organization to continue to perform at the level that they are. They've shown a great history of that. We feel like we can put that together with reasonable pricing. So that we can continue on this very good trajectory that we've been on for some time.

再說一次，當你談論捆綁諸如領導管理或 ACM 功能之類的東西時，它確實會帶走談話的一些底線性質，這是一件好事。因此，我們希望我們的索賠組織能夠繼續保持現有的水平。他們展現了一段偉大的歷史。我們覺得我們可以將其與合理的定價結合起來。這樣我們就可以繼續沿著我們已經走了一段時間的良好軌跡前進。

And as you can see, we've guided the loss ratios to be kind of low-60s, but keeping where we are for the period of time on both disability and life insurance creeping up towards 70s. But again, I feel like we're in a really good spot there as well.

正如您所看到的，我們已將損失率控制在 60% 以下，但在殘障保險和人壽保險的損失率保持在當前水平，逐步上升至 70% 左右。但我再次感覺我們目前的情況也非常好。

And I guess how much is price factor in your ability to win business? If you were to say we're willing to price 300, 400 basis points less margin than we have currently been earning, would it stimulate much growth?

我猜測價格因素對您贏得業務的能力有多大影響？如果您說我們願意將利潤率定在比目前獲利低 300 到 400 個基點的水平，這是否會刺激成長？

Josh, I think down market, if you wanted to make play to win a pure commodity buyer, you could fairly quickly change your sales trajectory if you wanted to win there. Upmarket, a lot of customers really do look for value first. So even if they see some sort of a meaningfully discounted offer from a carrier.

喬希，我認為在低端市場，如果你想贏得純商品買家，你可以相當快地改變你的銷售軌跡，如果你想在那裡獲勝。高端市場，很多顧客確實首先尋求的是價值。因此，即使他們看到運營商提供了某種有意義的折扣優惠。

Listen, certainly, there are times when a company has to make an economic decision and take advantage of every bit of savings they can, but that's the minority. Most of -- it's part of the reason we really like that mid and upper market, large market where more value conversations happen, and that's less likely to be the driver.

聽著，當然，有時公司必須做出經濟決策，並充分利用每一點可能的節省，但這種情況只是少數。大部分——這也是我們真正喜歡中高端市場、大型市場的原因之一，因為這些市場有更多的價值對話，而這不太可能成為驅動因素。

Again, I've been doing this for a long time. I do not want to suggest the price doesn't matter. It does. But again, the whole package is what's at play and just underpricing by 3 or 4 points isn't going to lead to long-term success from a growth perspective.

再說一遍，我已經這樣做很久了。我並不是想說價格不重要。是的。但同樣，整個方案都在發揮作用，從成長的角度來看，僅僅低估 3 或 4 個點並不會帶來長期的成功。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Just one quick one. You talked about a lot of optionality in the potential risk transfer for the long-term care block. How much do you prioritize just getting a full solution, so it's entirely off your books or maybe a partial solution that just has components of the block.

只需快速完成一件事。您談到了長期照護領域潛在風險轉移的諸多可選性。您有多重視獲得完整的解決方案，所以它完全脫離了您的範圍，或者可能是只包含模組組件的部分解決方案。

Yeah, Mark, it's Rick. I think about a full solution, that's probably -- if you go back five-plus years, we would talk about that, just given the size of the block, I think realistically, that's not why we think about the tranches.

是的，馬克，我是瑞克。我認為一個完整的解決方案可能是——如果你回顧五年多前，我們會談論這個問題，只是考慮到區塊的大小，我認為現實地說，這不是我們考慮分批的原因。

Ultimately, we would like to be off the entire risk -- but I think it's much more reasonable to think about it in terms of piece by piece. And so that's what we're approaching. That's why we say we can take out any part of the block from a structuring perspective.

最終，我們希望擺脫所有風險——但我認為從各個方面考慮更合理。這就是我們正在做的事情。這就是為什麼我們說我們可以從結構角度取出區塊的任何部分。

And so we're going to focus on that. I think that's a realistic way that that's going to happen. Longer term, sure, we want to be off the block, but I think it's going to be a little bit broken into a couple of pieces as we do that.

因此我們將重點關注這一點。我認為這是實現這一目標的現實方式。從長遠來看，我們當然想擺脫困境，但我認為，在我們這樣做的時候，它會被分成幾個部分。

Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets.

傑克‧馬滕 (Jack Matten)，BMO 資本市場。

Just a quick question on the Closed Block segment outlook and the LTC net premium ratio, which ticked up slightly from last quarter. I know you called out that infants continues to run a little bit above your longer-term expectation. Just wondering if you can unpack that at all on what's driving that and why you're confident that can moderate going into 2025.

我只是問一下關於封閉式板塊前景和 LTC 淨保費比率的問題，該比率較上一季略有上升。我知道您曾指出，嬰兒數量仍然略高於您的長期預期。只是想知道您是否可以詳細解釋一下推動這一趨勢的原因，以及為什麼您有信心到 2025 年這一趨勢能夠得到緩和。

Yeah. This is Steve. I'll handle that one. I'll talk a little bit about the quarter and then maybe talk a little bit about our view of the outlook for 2025 and what the underpinnings of that is. So for the quarter, yeah, we did see incidents continue at level that would be elevated from our longer-term expectations. It's pretty consistent with third quarter.

是的。這是史蒂夫。我會處理那個。我將稍微談一下本季的情況，然後再談我們對 2025 年前景的看法以及其基礎。因此，就本季而言，我們確實看到事件持續發生，且發生水準高於我們的長期預期。這與第三季相當一致。

And so what we're seeing -- we still feel good that as we get into next year, incidents will continue to drift down to more normalized levels. And seeing our inventory of claims indicate that, that probably is going to be the case as we go into next year. So that dynamic is incorporated into how we think about just claims performance in 2025 and is part of the driver of our range going up a bit from what we would have put out there and what our actuals were in 2024.

我們看到的是——我們仍然感到高興的是，隨著進入明年，事件將繼續下降到更正常化的水平。從我們的索賠清單可以看出，進入明年，情況可能仍會如此。因此，這種動態被納入了我們對 2025 年索賠表現的思考中，也是推動我們的範圍比我們預計的範圍和 2024 年的實際情況略有上升的驅動因素之一。

The other thing for the quarter, which we don't think is going to necessarily continue was we public statements in the earnings release, we talk about terminations, specifically, that was claimant mortality. We saw the count pretty consistent with our expectations, but the average size of claim related to those claimants was lower than what we would expect.

本季度的另一件事，我們認為不一定會繼續，就是我們在收益報告中的公開聲明中談論終止合同，具體來說，就是索賠人的死亡率。我們看到的數量與我們的預期相當一致，但與這些索賠人相關的索賠平均規模低於我們的預期。

We think that's just a one-quarter thing. Both of those things would have had a modest negative impact on our net premium ratio and so that did go up pretty modestly 10 basis points. We don't think that continues. It hasn't really been incorporated into an outlook for 2025.

我們認為這只是一個季度的事情。這兩件事都會對我們的淨保費比率產生適度的負面影響，因此淨保費比率確實小幅上升了 10 個基點。我們認為這種情況不會持續下去。它還沒有真正被納入2025年的展望中。

The other thing that we are looking at, though, is our alternative investment portfolio. Our -- I mentioned our yield -- annual yield for the fourth quarter was about 9%. For the full year, that was a little under 8%. Our longer-term expectation for that would be 8% to 10%. And that's what we would have incorporated into our 2025 outlook.

不過，我們正在關注的另一件事是我們的另類投資組合。我曾提到我們的收益率——第四季的年收益率約為 9%。就全年而言，這一增幅略低於 8%。我們的長期預期是 8% 至 10%。這就是我們要納入 2025 年展望的內容。

So we finished the year at just over -- I guess, or just under $140 million for the full year in Closed Block. Guidance we gave was $140 million to $170 million. And so those two dynamics around incidents may be continuing to abate as well as better yields on the oil portfolio is really driving that increase in the range that we set.

因此，我們全年的封閉式銷售收入略高於——我想，或略低於 1.4 億美元。我們給的指導價格是 1.4 億至 1.7 億美元。因此，圍繞事件的這兩種動態可能會繼續減弱，而石油投資組合收益率的提高實際上推動了我們設定的範圍的增加。

That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on capital generation. There's a nice step-up in the outlook for US stat earnings and international dividends. I guess is there anything notable driving the improved outlook. It seems like the capital consumption from organic growth isn't expected to really change meaningfully. But just wondering if there's anything that will driving your 2025 expectation?

這很有幫助。然後只是對資本創造的後續關注。美國統計收益和國際股息的前景可望大幅提升。我想是否有一些值得注意的因素推動前景的改善。看起來有機成長帶來的資本消耗預計不會發生真正有意義的變化。但我只是想知道是否有任何因素會推動您對 2025 年的期望？

No, just growth. We continue to have very solid margin across both the international businesses as well as our US insurance subsidiaries. And so all you're seeing is the growth that we anticipate in top line flowing through to statutory earnings generation.

不，只是成長。我們的國際業務和美國保險子公司繼續保持非常穩固的利潤率。因此，您所看到的只是我們預期的營收成長，並將轉化為法定收益。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

Most of my questions were answered, but maybe on the long-term care block. What is it that -- and you've obviously expressed confidence in your reserves, but what is it from -- that we could monitor from the outside? Whether it's just overall earnings or net premium ratio or something that gives us an idea if you're getting to a point where maybe you'd need to adjust your reserves again?

我的大部分問題都得到了回答，但可能是關於長期照護的問題。那是什麼——顯然您已經表達了對儲備的信心，但是我們可以從外部監控什麼呢？這只是整體收益或淨保費比率，或者其他可以讓我們知道您是否到了可能需要再次調整儲備金的地步？

Yeah. I think we've been pretty consistent. The metrics that we're going to be talking about would relate to just absolute earnings of the block, and we will talk about that as we go quarter-to-quarter just the claims dynamics that we're seeing within the block. Two would be the net premium ratio, which we continue to disclose that on a quarterly basis.

是的。我認為我們一直都非常一致。我們將要討論的指標只與該區塊的絕對收益有關，我們將逐季度討論該區塊內看到的索賠動態。二是淨保費比率，我們將繼續按季度揭露該比率。

And then just how we think about the hedging program and what we're able to achieve there and the protection that gives. And then I would just add to that, the success that we've had on our premium rate program, and we'll continue to disclose just the progress we made there. So that's what we were able to put out there in the market in 2024, and that's what we'll continue to do.

然後我們如何看待對沖計劃以及我們能夠實現的目標和所提供的保護。然後我想補充一點，我們的收費項目取得了成功，我們將繼續披露我們在那裡取得的進展。這就是我們在 2024 年能夠向市場推出的產品，我們也將繼續這樣做。

And then obviously, update on just the broader protections that we feel we have against block. Ultimately, there's going to be GAAP dynamics as far as having best estimate reserves. But for us, the key thing there relates to capital needs of that business. And I think looking at the protections that we think we have with our statutory or regulatory reserves is probably one of the best indicators to just think about capital requirements for that business.

然後顯然，我們會更新我們認為可以防止封鎖的更廣泛的保護措施。最終，就最佳估計儲備而言，將會有 GAAP 動態。但對我們來說，關鍵在於該業務的資本需求。我認為，查看我們認為透過法定或監管儲備所獲得的保護可能是考慮該業務資本要求的最佳指標之一。

Okay. And then on your share buyback guidance, a fairly wide range. What -- besides earnings, what are the things that would make you be at the higher end, closer to $1 billion versus maybe around $0.5 billion?

好的。關於您的股票回購指導，範圍相當廣泛。除了收益之外，還有什麼因素能夠讓您的收入達到更高的水平，接近 10 億美元而不是 5 億美元左右？

Yeah. I think about the flexibility that we have and the dynamic repurchase we have for the course of the year. I mentioned M&A. So certainly, that would be a use of capital. But even with the types of transactions we talked about, we'll have significant capital as we end the year.

是的。我考慮了我們的靈活性以及全年的動態回購。我提到了併購。所以這無疑將是資本的運用。但即使進行了我們談論的這些類型的交易，到年底我們仍將擁有大量資本。

So it's going to be more a judgment in terms of as we look at the pace at which we go at buying back our shares over the course of the year. And so I'm sure we'll talk about it on a quarterly basis, but we start the year in a really strong spot and expect that we'll be in the market right away, buying back shares, and we'll just have to see the pace at which we do that.

因此，這將更多地取決於我們全年回購股票的速度。因此，我確信我們會在每個季度討論這個問題，但我們今年的開局非常強勁，預計我們會立即進入市場，回購股票，我們只需要看看我們這樣做的速度。

Michael Ward, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可沃德。

Back to just voluntary benefits. I know there's been a lot of focus there, and you're comfortable with the earnings power, but I don't think we've actually discussed the underlying claim activity or product lines in voluntary. Is it simply just a random incidence pickup hospitalizations and dominated payouts? Or is it severity or anything else?

回到自願福利。我知道人們對此非常關注，而且您對盈利能力也感到滿意，但我認為我們實際上並沒有討論過自願的基本索賠活動或產品線。這只是一次隨機事件，增加了住院費用並主導了賠償嗎？還是因為它的嚴重性或其他什麼？

Yeah. And it's been a different story quarter-to-quarter. In some quarters, hospital indemnity, we've had higher levels of claims and some disability. We've had a higher incidence of claims.

是的。每個季度的情況都有所變化。在某些方面，例如醫院賠償，我們的索賠和一些殘障賠償金額較高。我們的索賠發生率較高。

I would say we're each of those product lines, we haven't seen a consistent unfavorable trend that we kind of predict out into the future will continue. So it's one of those things that we have a lot of different product lines, kind of embedded in voluntary benefits. And over the last couple of quarters, we've just had some unfavorable claims experience that has hit multiple product lines. And again, we just think that's some volatility that should play out over time.

我想說的是，我們的每一條產品線都沒有看到持續的不利趨勢，我們預測這種趨勢在未來還會持續下去。因此，我們有許多不同的產品線，它們都嵌入自願福利之中。在過去幾個季度中，我們遇到了一些不利的索賠經歷，影響了多個產品線。而且，我們只是認為這種波動會隨著時間的推移而逐漸顯現。

Okay. And then maybe are you able to quantify the impact from recoveries and how that's helped group disability loss ratio maybe like on a -- like '24 or just in general over the last few years?

好的。然後，也許您能夠量化復甦的影響，以及這對團體傷殘損失率有何幫助，例如 — — 例如 24 年，或者只是過去幾年的總體情況？

Yeah. There's a lot of moving parts to that. I mean, obviously, the benefit ratio within group disability is an indicator if I go all the way back to pre-pandemic that probably ran in the low 70s. Since that period of time, we've been on a bit of a ride for incidence trends, but those back to more, I'd say, historic levels and probably are pretty consistent.

是的。其中涉及很多活動部件。我的意思是，顯然，如果我追溯到疫情之前，團體殘障保險的福利比率是一個指標，這個比率可能在 70% 出頭。自那段時間以來，我們的發病率趨勢一直有些波動，但我認為已經回到了歷史水平，而且可能相當一致。

There's obviously been different pricing that's occurred over that period of time. But I would say one of the main drivers of that change in the benefit ratio would be the improvement that we've seen in recovery trends.

顯然，那段時期內的定價有所不同。但我想說，福利比率變化的主要驅動因素之一是我們看到的復甦趨勢的改善。

We are now closing the Q&A session. I'd now like to hand back to Rick McKenney for final remarks.

我們現在結束問答環節。現在我想把發言權交還給里克‧麥肯尼 (Rick McKenney)，請他做最後的發言。

Great. Thank you all for joining us, and thank you for all the questions. If you do have further questions, please do reach out to the team, and we will also be active over the next few weeks as soon as Monday out there talking about what we're doing at different events and look forward to seeing a number of you from this call at [AFED] at the beginning of March. And with that, operator, that concludes our call. Thanks, everyone.

偉大的。感謝大家加入我們，並感謝大家提出的所有問題。如果您還有其他問題，請聯繫我們的團隊，我們也會在接下來的幾週內積極活動，最早從週一開始，討論我們在不同活動中所做的事情，並期待在 3 月初的 [AFED] 電話會議上見到你們。接線員，我們的通話到此結束。謝謝大家。

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。祝您有美好的一天。