聯合健康 (UNH) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 2025 年調整後 EPS 為 $16.35,略高於預期;全年營收近 $4480 億,年增 12%;2026 年調整後 EPS 指引超過 $17.75,預期成長至少 8.6%
    • 2026 年指引:四大事業群均預期成長,UHC(UnitedHealthcare)雙位數成長,Optum 各分部低至高個位數成長;UHC、Optum 皆聚焦於營運效率與產品重塑,並預期會員數收縮以換取利潤率回升
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調組織韌性、AI 投資與長期成長潛力,並持續推動透明度與信任建立
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 與自動化推動營運效率,2026 年預計節省近 10 億美元營運成本
      • Optum Rx 透過 800 家新客戶關係、100% 回饋藥品回扣、透明定價模式,帶動外部銷售與毛利擴張
      • Optum Health 聚焦整合式價值型照護,精簡網絡與風險組合,提升執行力與營運穩定性
      • UHC 透過產品重定價與會員結構優化,預期 2026 年調整後營運利潤成長約 13%,利潤率提升 40 個基點
    • 風險:
      • Medicare 連續三年資金減少,2026 年及 2027 年仍面臨進一步給付壓力,預期會員數收縮 130-140 萬人
      • Medicaid 州政府資金短缺,2026 年預期會員數減少 56.5-71.5 萬人,利潤率持續受壓
      • 醫療利用率持續高檔,2026 年 Medicare 醫療成本趨勢預期達 10%,商業保險趨勢約 11%
      • Optum Health 2025 年第四季營運波動大,重組與一次性項目影響獲利,需持續強化執行力
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 2025 年營收:近 $4480 億,年增 12%,美國會員數增加 41.5 萬人
    • 2025 年醫療成本率(MR):89.1%,略優於預期,2026 年預估 88.8%(±50bps)
    • 2025 年營運成本率:13.3%,2026 年預估 12.8%(±50bps)
    • UHC 2026 年預期會員數收縮 230-280 萬人,主因 Medicare、Medicaid 與商業保險會員減少
    • Optum Rx 2026 年毛利率預期擴張 20bps,新增 800 家客戶,95% 客戶選擇全額回扣通過
    • Optum Health 2026 年營運利潤成長約 9%,毛利率提升 30bps,風險會員組合精簡 15%,網絡精簡 20%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年營收預估約 $4400 億
    • 2026 年醫療成本率預估 88.8%(±50bps)
    • 2026 年 AI 與技術投資預計約 $15 億,2027 年至少維持同等規模
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 2026 年 Medicare Advantage(MA)會員數大幅下滑,2027 年是否見底?MA 對其他事業群影響?
      A: 2026 年策略聚焦利潤率恢復,會員減少在規劃範圍內,2027 年仍需視 CMS 最終給付決定,長期來看整合式價值型照護模式將更重要。MA 對 Optum Health、Optum Rx 具關鍵互補性。
    • Q: Optum Health 2025 Q4 營運利潤大幅低於指引,2026 年穩定性如何?
      A: Q4 受重組與一次性項目影響,已建立新基準,2026 年聚焦回歸價值型照護本質、精簡網絡與風險組合,管理層對未來穩定性有信心。
    • Q: 2027 年 Medicare 給付率下修對公司與產業影響?Optum Health 是否能維持 5% 利潤率?
      A: 公司受影響與產業一致,部分高績效市場已達長期目標利潤率,持續提升執行力,有信心回到長期目標。
    • Q: Medicaid 2026 年調整後利潤率展望?
      A: 2026 年預期總體利潤率仍受壓,雖有 6-7% 費率調升,但仍低於醫療成本趨勢,會員數預期收縮。
    • Q: Optum Rx 2026 年 800 家新客戶特性與成長動能?
      A: 新客戶主要因公司在可負擔性、透明度與執行力領先,Optum Rx 透過談判與創新方案為客戶與會員帶來顯著節省,NPS 持續提升,2026 年預期營運利潤溫和成長。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to the UnitedHealth Group fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Here are some important introductory information. This call contains forward-looking statements under US Federal Securities Laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or present expectations.

    早安,歡迎參加聯合健康集團2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(操作員說明)提醒您,本次通話正在錄音。以下是一些重要的介紹資訊。本次電話會議包含美國聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與歷史經驗或當前預期有重大差異。

  • A description of some of the risks and uncertainties can be found in the reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the cautionary statements included in our current and periodic filings. This call will also reference non-GAAP amounts. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP to GAAP amount is available on the financial and earnings reports section of the company's Investor Relations page at www.unitedhealthgroup.com.

    有關一些風險和不確定性的描述可以在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中找到,包括我們目前和定期文件中包含的警示性聲明。本次電話會議也將提及非GAAP財務數據。您可以在公司投資者關係頁面 www.unitedhealthgroup.com 的財務和收益報告部分查看非 GAAP 與 GAAP 金額的調整表。

  • Information presented on this call is contained in the earnings release we issued this morning and in our Form 8-K dated January 27, 2026, which may be accessed from the Investor Relations page of the company's website.

    本次電話會議中提供的資訊包含在我們今天早上發布的盈利報告以及我們於 2026 年 1 月 27 日發布的 8-K 表格中,這些文件可從公司網站的投資者關係頁面獲取。

  • I will now turn the conference over to the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of UnitedHealth Group, Stephen Hemsley.

    現在我將把會議交給聯合健康集團董事長兼執行長史蒂芬‧亨斯利。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you and good morning. Thank you for joining us today. This morning I'll provide updates on the progress our organization has made over the last six months and the momentum that is building in 2026.

    謝謝,早安。感謝您今天蒞臨。今天上午,我將報告我們組織在過去六個月中取得的進展,以及2026年正在形成的良好勢頭。

  • Tim Noel and Patrick Conway will dive more deeply into how UnitedHealthcare and Optum finished 2025, and our conviction for improved performance in 2026. Wayne DeVeydt will walk through the details of our full year 2025 financial performance and 2026 outlook before we turn to Q&A.

    Tim Noel 和 Patrick Conway 將更深入探討 UnitedHealthcare 和 Optum 在 2025 年的業績表現,以及我們對 2026 年業績提升的信心。在進入問答環節之前,Wayne DeVeydt 將詳細介紹我們 2025 年全年財務表現和 2026 年展望。

  • We continue to progress and strengthen as we enter 2026. We've taken a critical look across all our products and our US market positions, focusing on what is working, what needs more attention, and what no longer makes sense for us.

    進入2026年,我們將繼續進步和壯大。我們對所有產品和美國市場地位進行了認真審視,重點關注哪些方面行之有效,哪些方面需要更多關注,以及哪些方面對我們來說不再有意義。

  • We are driving greater operational disciplines in all our business practices, leveraging the use of technology and artificial intelligence broadly, and renewing our commitment to innovation, agility and accountability. We have removed assets that are not aligned with our focus on serving the US health system.

    我們正在推動所有業務實踐中更嚴格的營運規範,廣泛利用技術和人工智慧,並重申我們對創新、敏捷性和責任的承諾。我們已剝離了與我們服務美國醫療體系的重點不符的資產。

  • We continue to strengthen our management team, leveraging both our internal depth and bringing fresh ideas and talent from outside the organization. These actions and others are intended to improve the value we offer to all those we serve and drive sustainable growth for many years to come. Our people are rising to the challenge before them.

    我們將繼續加強管理團隊,既發揮內部優勢,也從外部引入新血和人才。這些舉措以及其他措施旨在提高我們為所有服務對象提供的價值,並推動未來多年的永續成長。我們的人民正在迎接擺在他們面前的挑戰。

  • We finished 2025 with adjusted earnings per share of $16.35 which was slightly ahead of our expectations. Full year 2025 results exclude a $1.6 billion net of tax and largely non-cash charge very consistent with what we discussed on our third quarter earnings call.

    2025 年調整後每股收益為 16.35 美元,略高於我們的預期。2025 年全年業績不包括 16 億美元的稅後淨額和主要為非現金支出,這與我們第三季財報電話會議上討論的內容非常一致。

  • Addressing the elements of this charge was important in setting a solid foundation for returning to the historical earnings quality and growth you've come to expect from us. Wayne will provide further details on both these results and the charge.

    解決這項指控的各個面向對於為我們恢復以往的獲利品質和成長奠定堅實的基礎至關重要,而這正是你們一直以來對我們抱持的期望。韋恩將提供有關這些結果和指控的更多細節。

  • Looking to 2026, we expect adjusted earnings per share of greater than $17.75 for growth of at least 8.6%. Our initial outlook reflects measured growth across all four of our reporting business segments, with double-digit improvements at UnitedHealthcare and low to high single-digit adjusted growth across our Optum segments.

    展望 2026 年,我們預計調整後每股盈餘將超過 17.75 美元,成長至少 8.6%。我們初步展望反映了我們所有四個報告業務部門的穩定成長,其中 UnitedHealthcare 實現了兩位數的成長,而 Optum 各部門則實現了低至高個位數的調整後成長。

  • These overall results are tempered by the third year of Medicare funding reductions, ongoing funding shortfalls within our Medicaid -- our state Medicaid programs, and our historical respect for rising medical cost trends.

    整體結果受到以下因素的影響:連續第三年削減醫療保險資金、州醫療補助計劃持續資金短缺,以及我們歷來對不斷上漲的醫療成本趨勢的重視。

  • As expected, improvement will be more evident within UnitedHealthcare in 2026, while at an earlier stage, Optum will take more operational effort and investment and time.

    不出所料,UnitedHealthcare 的改善將在 2026 年更加明顯,而 Optum 在早期階段需要投入更多的營運精力、資金和時間。

  • At UnitedHealthcare, we successfully repriced the insurance businesses, intentionally right-sizing them to refocus on membership we can best serve on a sustainable basis.

    在聯合健康保險公司,我們成功地對保險業務進行了重新定價,有意地調整了業務規模,以便重新專注於我們能夠以可持續的方式最好地服務的會員群體。

  • In Optum, new leaders are driving operational improvements that translate to more consistent results and better performance visibility. We've taken a critical look at our services and geographies, remaining in markets that are best aligned with our core integrated value-based care purpose.

    在 Optum,新的領導者正在推動營運改進,從而帶來更穩定的業績和更好的績效可見度。我們對我們的服務和地理進行了認真審視,選擇留在最符合我們以價值為導向的核心綜合醫療宗旨的市場。

  • This analysis also led us now to align Optum Financial Services with Optum Insight, where our energies and talents for healthcare technology and financial technology innovation can be brought together to better address the opportunities and potential within these markets.

    這項分析也促使我們將 Optum Financial Services 與 Optum Insight 合併,從而將我們在醫療保健技術和金融技術創新方面的精力和才能結合起來,更好地應對這些市場中的機會和潛力。

  • We are clearly embarking on a new age of technology, already transforming the way the world operates, and healthcare must participate carefully and fully. We plan to be a leader in that movement. We expect 2026 to be a year of focus and execution. An important one in the history of our company.

    我們顯然正在邁入一個全新的科技時代,科技改變了世界的運作方式,醫療保健必須認真、全面地參與其中。我們計劃成為這場運動的領導者。我們預計2026年將是專注和執行的一年。這是我們公司歷史上一件重要的事。

  • We have emerged strongly from challenging periods in our past and are committed to that course today. Our team is showing great resilience and energy, and we believe strongly the steps we're taking will pay off. With that, I'll turn it over to Tim.

    我們已經從過去的挑戰時期中強勢復甦,今天也將繼續走這條道路。我們的團隊展現了極強的韌性和活力,我們堅信我們正在採取的措施將會取得成效。接下來,我將把麥克風交給提姆。

  • Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

    Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

  • Thanks, Steve. UnitedHealthcare finished 2025 having made progress to more effectively serve our members and network partners. Another important element in building sustainable growth. We close the year with medical care patterns in each business in line with our updated outlook, and ultimately supportive of our pricing decisions for 2026.

    謝謝你,史蒂夫。聯合健康保險公司在2025年底取得了進展,能夠更有效地服務我們的會員和網路合作夥伴。建構可持續成長的另一個重要因素。我們以各業務部門的醫療保健模式結束這一年,這些模式與我們更新後的展望一致,並最終支持我們 2026 年的定價決策。

  • With that, I will briefly walk through each business. Starting with Medicare, the 2025 medical cost trend was in line with our expectation of approximately 7.5% and supports our 2026 trend expectation of 10%. This reflects consistently elevated utilization in addition to increases in physician fee schedules and the continuation of higher service intensity per care encounter.

    接下來,我將簡要介紹每家企業。從聯邦醫療保險(Medicare)開始,2025 年的醫療成本趨勢與我們預期的約 7.5% 相符,並支持我們對 2026 年 10% 趨勢的預期。這反映出醫療資源利用率持續上升,同時醫師收費標準也隨之提高,且每次就診的服務強度也持續增加。

  • As part of our efforts to address elevated trends and funding cuts, we plan for some Medicare Advantage membership contraction in 2026.

    為因應不斷上升的趨勢和資金削減,我們計劃在 2026 年減少部分 Medicare Advantage 會員人數。

  • We now expect UHC Medicare managed contraction will be in the range of 1.3 million to 1.4 million members for the full year, including group, individual, and dual special needs plans. These are greater losses than originally anticipated as competitive market dynamics drove higher than expected planned shopping during the intensely competitive annual enrollment period.

    我們現在預計,UHC Medicare 全年管理的承保範圍將達到 130 萬至 140 萬會員,包括團體、個人和雙重特殊需求計劃。由於競爭激烈的市場動態導致在競爭激烈的年度招生期間,計劃性購物量高於預期,因此這些損失比最初預期的要大。

  • Our 2026 approach favored margin recovery, and these membership trends are a result of these actions. We similarly positioned our Medicare supplement and standalone Part D segments, and as a result of the totality of actions taken across UHC Medicare, we expect an improvement in Medicare margins of approximately 50 basis points from 2025.

    我們 2026 年的策略著重於利潤率恢復,而這些會員趨勢正是這些行動的結果。我們對醫療保險補充險和獨立D部分險種進行了類似的定位,並且由於UHC Medicare採取的所有行動,我們預計從2025年起,Medicare利潤率將提高約50個基點。

  • Looking briefly to 2027, the advance notice published yesterday simply doesn't reflect the reality of medical utilization and cost trends. We will continue to work with CMS to ensure an appropriate final growth rate calculation to avoid a profoundly negative impact on seniors' benefits and access to care.

    簡單展望一下 2027 年,昨天發布的提前通知根本無法反映醫療利用和成本趨勢的實際情況。我們將繼續與 CMS 合作,確保最終成長率計算得當,以避免對老年人的福利和獲得醫療保健產生嚴重的負面影響。

  • That would be a deeply unfortunate result for a program that already is under funding pressure from the previous administration, despite its track record of success serving seniors and taxpayers.

    對於一個已經因前政府的資金壓力而面臨困境的項目來說,這將是一個極其不幸的結果,儘管該項目在服務老年人和納稅人方面取得了成功。

  • Turning to Medicaid, we can continue to expect this business to see incremental pressure in 2026, largely driven by state funding shortfalls. We have received some rate relief but still anticipate the mismatch between rate and acuity to pressure performance in 2026. While we hope for further improvement in 2027.

    再來看醫療補助計劃,我們可以預見,到 2026 年,這項業務將繼續面臨越來越大的壓力,這主要是由於各州資金短缺造成的。我們已經獲得了一些利率減免,但仍然預計 2026 年利率和敏銳度之間的不匹配將給業績帶來壓力。我們希望在 2027 年能有進一步的改善。

  • We expect Medicaid membership contraction of approximately 565,000 to 715,000 people, which includes D-SNP members, due to reduced Medicaid eligibility combined with the exit from one state.

    我們預計,由於醫療補助資格減少以及一個州的退出,醫療補助成員人數將減少約 565,000 至 715,000 人,其中包括 D-SNP 成員。

  • We took important steps in our commercial pricing and cost management efforts during the second half of this year. Nearly all of our employer group and fully insured pricing align with continued increases in care activity for 2026.

    今年下半年,我們在商業定價和成本管理方面採取了重要措施。我們幾乎所有的雇主團體和全額保險定價都與 2026 年護理活動的持續成長一致。

  • In the individual ACA market, we reprice nearly all states in response to higher medical trends and the elevated needs of ACA beneficiaries in 2025. These actions were necessary to ensure a sustainable foundation in these plans and enable us to maintain our participation in all the states we served in 2025.

    在個人 ACA 市場中,我們根據更高的醫療趨勢和 2025 年 ACA 受益人不斷增長的需求,對幾乎所有州進行了重新定價。這些行動對於確保這些計劃的可持續發展至關重要,使我們能夠在 2025 年繼續參與我們服務的所有州的活動。

  • We are working with CMS on solutions to address the consumer affordability challenge given the unfolding dynamics in the ACA marketplace.

    鑑於《平價醫療法案》市場不斷變化的動態,我們正在與美國醫療保險和醫療補助服務中心 (CMS) 合作,尋求解決消費者負擔能力挑戰的方案。

  • As we announced last week, we have voluntarily pledged to rebate ACA market profits back to our ACA customers this year as policymakers work to determine how to improve affordability in this marketplace. We expect both fully insured group and individual enrollment to contract and be partially offset by continued momentum in our group's self-funded offerings.

    正如我們上週宣布的那樣,我們自願承諾今年將 ACA 市場利潤返還給我們的 ACA 客戶,因為政策制定者正在努力確定如何提高該市場的可負擔性。我們預計全額投保的團體和個人投保人數都會減少,但團體自籌資金產品的持續成長動能將部分抵銷這種影響。

  • For 2026 overall, our strategic focus on margin recovery through product repositioning and repricing efforts enables us to estimate approximately 13% adjusted operating earnings growth across all of UHC, principally from the improvement in serving commercial and Medicare market needs.

    展望 2026 年,我們策略重點在於透過產品重新定位和重新定價來恢復利潤率,這使我們能夠預期 UHC 所有業務的調整後營業利潤將成長約 13%,主要得益於滿足商業和醫療保險市場需求的改善。

  • These actions should expand operating earning margins for UnitedHealthcare by 40 basis points and are expected to result in membership contraction of 2.3 million to 2.8 million. The expected contraction in commercial membership is in line with our plans. While this will drive margin expansion in 2026, we still anticipate operating just slightly below our historical margin range until 2027.

    這些措施應該會使聯合健康保險公司的營業利潤率提高 40 個基點,預計會員人數將減少 230 萬至 280 萬人。商業會員數量的預期減少與我們的計劃相符。雖然這將推動 2026 年利潤率擴張,但我們預計到 2027 年,我們的利潤率仍將略低於歷史水準。

  • Our UHC recovery effort is being supported by steady efficiency gains as we advance AI and machine learning capabilities across our businesses. We anticipate operating cost reductions of nearly $1 billion in 2026, many AI enabled and importantly resulting in higher customer experience and satisfaction at a lower cost.

    隨著我們在各個業務領域推進人工智慧和機器學習能力,效率穩步提升,這為我們的全民健康覆蓋復甦工作提供了支持。我們預計到 2026 年營運成本將減少近 10 億美元,其中許多措施將藉助人工智慧實現,更重要的是,這將以更低的成本帶來更高的客戶體驗和滿意度。

  • Over 80% of calls from members leverage AI tools to help answer members' questions faster and more accurately. This enables our advocates to focus more time on a better service experience for individuals.

    超過 80% 的會員來電都利用了人工智慧工具來幫助更快、更準確地回答會員的問題。這使得我們的客服人員能夠將更多時間用於為個人提供更好的服務體驗。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Patrick Conway, CEO of Optum.

    現在我將把麥克風交給Optum的執行長帕特里克·康威。

  • Patrick Conway - Chief Executive Officer of Optum

    Patrick Conway - Chief Executive Officer of Optum

  • Thanks Tim, and good morning everyone. As we start 2026, Optum will be anchored around relentless focus on improved and consistent execution and Optum Health and Optum Insight that will enable future margin expansion and top-line growth.

    謝謝蒂姆,大家早安。2026 年伊始,Optum 將以持續改善和穩定執行為核心,並專注於 Optum Health 和 Optum Insight,以實現未來利潤率的擴張和營收成長。

  • Optum Rx will remain focused on maintaining its market position and providing a more comprehensive suite of pharmacy benefits and services and continuing to pursue success in winning new customers for 2027 and 2028, all in highly competitive markets.

    Optum Rx 將繼續專注於維持其市場地位,提供更全面的藥房福利和服務,並繼續努力在 2027 年和 2028 年贏得新客戶,所有這些都將在競爭激烈的市場中實現。

  • Our 2026 performance outlook reflects adjusted earnings growth in all three segments of our business, ranging from low to high single-digit year-over-year performance and margin expansion ranging from 20 basis points to 90 basis points across the portfolio.

    我們對 2026 年業績的展望反映了我們業務所有三個部門的調整後盈利增長,同比增長幅度從個位數低到個位數高,整個投資組合的利潤率擴張幅度從 20 個基點到 90 個基點不等。

  • Growth rates will remain somewhat tempered in 2026, but strategic refocus and investment in modern next generation services should lead to growing momentum in the back half of the year that will carry into 2027 and beyond.

    2026 年成長率將保持一定程度的溫和,但策略調整和對現代下一代服務的投資應該會在下半年帶來成長勢頭,並將延續到 2027 年及以後。

  • Some details on each of our segments starting with Optum Rx. At Optum Rx, we expect operating earnings growth from expanding margins by approximately 20 basis points on an adjusted basis. This growth is driven by a strong external selling season that will impact 2026 and 2027, as we implement and expand over 800 new customer relationships.

    以下是我們各個業務板塊的詳細信息,首先從 Optum Rx 開始。Optum Rx 預計,經調整後,營業利潤率將成長約 20 個基點,這主要得益於利潤率的擴大。這一成長得益於強勁的外部銷售旺季,這將對 2026 年和 2027 年產生影響,因為我們將建立和拓展 800 多個新的客戶關係。

  • While new customer wins were offset by membership contraction at UnitedHealthcare, we are capitalizing on significant AI automation enabled operating efficiencies to support our expanded margin outlook in 2026.

    儘管聯合健康保險公司 (UnitedHealthcare) 的新客戶成長被會員人數的減少所抵消,但我們正在利用人工智慧自動化帶來的顯著營運效率提升,以支持我們在 2026 年擴大的利潤預期。

  • Entering 2026, we have implemented new pricing models that will deliver greater transparency to customers and cost-based reimbursement to pharmacies. We have removed reauthorization requirements for 180 drugs benefiting millions of people, and we will continue to expand these efforts.

    進入 2026 年,我們實施了新的定價模式,這將為客戶帶來更高的透明度,並為藥房提供基於成本的報銷。我們已經取消了180種藥物的重新授權要求,這些藥物惠及數百萬人,我們將繼續擴大這些努力。

  • And we continue to advance our commitment to pass through 100% of drug rebates we received to our customers. Over 95% of our customers have elected to receive full rebate pass through in 2026, with all remaining customers expected to transition by the end of 2027.

    我們將繼續履行承諾,把收到的所有藥品回扣100%回饋給我們的客戶。超過 95% 的客戶選擇在 2026 年全額退款,預計所有剩餘客戶將在 2027 年底前完成過渡。

  • Our customers recognize pharmacy benefits are an essential tool in helping employers, governments, and patients afford and access medications. Optum RX members save over $2200 in annual prescription cost due to our efforts in moderating manufactured drug price increases.

    我們的客戶認識到,藥品福利是幫助雇主、政府和患者負擔得起和獲得藥物的重要工具。由於我們努力控制藥品價格上漲,Optum RX 會員每年可節省超過 2,200 美元的處方藥費用。

  • Turning to Optum Insight, we expect earning growth of greater than 4% while expanding margins by approximately 90 basis points. This growth is driven by new sales, commercialization of new products, stringent cost management, and increased volumes within existing core businesses.

    根據 Optum Insight 的預測,我們預計獲利成長將超過 4%,同時利潤率將提高約 90 個基點。這一成長是由新銷售、新產品商業化、嚴格的成本控制以及現有核心業務銷售增加所推動的。

  • Investments and execution on 2026 priorities will set the stage for more growth into 2027 and beyond, principally through broad-based AI-first new product innovation, strengthening Optum's care provider market offerings.

    對 2026 年優先事項的投資和執行將為 2027 年及以後的更大增長奠定基礎,主要透過廣泛的 AI 優先新產品創新,加強 Optum 的醫療保健提供者市場產品。

  • An important change starting in 2026 involves aligning Optum Insight and Optum Financial Services. These businesses have a much greater synergy today.

    從 2026 年開始的一項重要變更是將 Optum Insight 和 Optum Financial Services 合併。如今這些企業之間的綜效要大得多。

  • For example, integrating Optum Real's AI-driven revenue cycle solutions with Optum Financial Services, payment and financing capabilities has the potential to transform healthcare transactions, moving the industry from post-service reconciliation to real-time point of care approval and monetization, creating a more modern, closed-loop approach that is better for the health system.

    例如,將 Optum Real 的 AI 驅動的收入週期解決方案與 Optum Financial Services 的支付和融資能力相結合,有可能改變醫療保健交易,使該行業從服務後對帳轉變為即時護理點審批和貨幣化,從而創造一種更現代化、閉環的方法,這對醫療系統更有利。

  • The impact is significant. It reduces areas of long standing processing friction while enhancing Optum Insight's growth and margin potential by expanding beyond transaction processing into higher value services focused on a more certain, simpler, faster experience for patients and providers we serve.

    影響非常顯著。它減少了長期存在的處理摩擦,同時透過將業務從交易處理擴展到更高價值的服務,為我們服務的患者和醫療服務提供者提供更確定、更簡單、更快捷的體驗,從而增強了 Optum Insight 的成長和利潤潛力。

  • Unlocking faster settlement, improved liquidity for providers, and creating new value pools for payers.

    加快結算速度,提高醫療服務提供者的流動性,並為支付方創造新的價值池。

  • Turning to Optum Health, as you see in our results this morning, we made substantial changes through 2025, enabling our team to enter 2026 with a stronger foundation more aligned to the intent of our integrated value-based care approach.

    回到 Optum Health,正如您今天早上在我們的結果中所看到的,我們在 2025 年進行了重大變革,使我們的團隊能夠在 2026 年擁有更強大的基礎,更符合我們以價值為基礎的綜合醫療保健方法的宗旨。

  • We expect operating earnings growth of approximately 9% while expanding margins by approximately 30 basis points. This growth is driven by a back to the basics focus on integrated value-based care and execution.

    我們預計營業利潤成長約 9%,同時利潤率提高約 30 個基點。這一增長是由回歸基本原則,專注於以價值為導向的綜合醫療保健和執行所驅動的。

  • I'll touch on a few core areas in which we have taken action. First, we are focusing on markets where we have strong presence and the complementary wrap around services to succeed in our integrated value-based care approach.

    我將重點介紹我們已經採取行動的幾個核心領域。首先,我們將重點放在我們擁有強大影響力的市場,以及能夠提供配套服務的市場,以在我們以價值為導向的綜合醫療保健方法中取得成功。

  • We provide these services under an aligned incentive structure that improves outcomes, reduces cost, and improves patient satisfaction. Practices operating in this environment are driving down total cost of care by up to 30%, with patient satisfaction NPS near 90.

    我們採用協調一致的激勵機制提供這些服務,進而改善治療效果、降低成本並提高病患滿意度。在這種環境下運作的診所,其醫療總成本降低了高達 30%,病患滿意度 NPS 接近 90。

  • Second, we are making sure our integrated value-based care network is appropriate and optimized. We've narrowed our affiliated network by nearly 20% since this time last year, with the goal of having a more optimal alignment of physicians and services in place to best serve our patients.

    其次,我們正在確保我們的綜合價值醫療網絡是適當且優化的。自去年以來,我們已將附屬網路縮減了近 20%,目標是實現醫生和服務更優化的匹配,從而更好地服務我們的患者。

  • We have strengthened our value-based care network and management disciplines and will continue to reshape the network to ensure it is aligned with our strategy for higher quality and greater affordability.

    我們加強了以價值為導向的醫療保健網絡和管理規範,並將繼續重塑該網絡,以確保其與我們提高品質和降低成本的策略保持一致。

  • Third, we have streamlined our risk membership by approximately 15%. This reflects dropping unaligned PPO contracts, repositioning certain markets, and payer de-delegation in instances where we were not able to reach a viable sponsor contract.

    第三,我們將風險會員人數精簡了約 15%。這反映出我們放棄了不合適的 PPO 合同,重新定位了某些市場,以及在無法達成可行的贊助商合約的情況下取消了付款方的授權。

  • Importantly, we have made strides in getting back to the original intent of our integrated BBC vision. Removing Ansley's services risk and focusing back on core medical care. The majority of this work was done for 2026 with a smaller amount still to address in 2027.

    重要的是,我們在回歸 BBC 一體化願景的初衷方面取得了長足進步。消除安斯利的服務風險,重新專注於核心醫療服務。這項工作的大部分已於 2026 年完成,還有一小部分需要在 2027 年完成。

  • Finally, we have improved basic operational disciplines. We have exceptional care teams and proven approaches. In 2024 and 2025, inconsistencies in market-to-market execution hurt us. We are intensely focused on driving consistency, accountability, and performance.

    最後,我們提高了基本操作規範。我們擁有優秀的醫療團隊和行之有效的方法。2024 年和 2025 年,市場間執行的不一致對我們造成了損害。我們高度重視提高一致性、問責性和績效。

  • For example, we now have nearly 100% of our employed provider groups on one of three strategic electronic medical records. This is down from 18 EMRs in the past few years. This will enable us to more swiftly adopt enhanced workflow tools and AI, as well as have more timely and consistent data to guide our patient care efforts.

    例如,我們現在幾乎 100% 的受僱醫療服務提供者群體都使用三種策略性電子病歷系統之一。這比過去幾年的 18 個電子病歷系統有所下降。這將使我們能夠更快地採用增強型工作流程工具和人工智慧,並獲得更及時、更一致的數據來指導我們的病患照護工作。

  • Optum Health has made significant progress in bringing the integrated value-based care approach back to original purpose.

    Optum Health 在使以價值為基礎的全面醫療保健方法回歸其最初宗旨方面取得了重大進展。

  • You should expect further progress from us throughout 2026, as we continue our journey back to strong, transparent, consistent results while driving higher quality of care for patients and lowering overall cost in the health system.

    2026 年,我們將繼續朝著恢復強勁、透明、穩定的業績邁進,同時提高患者的護理質量,降低醫療系統的整體成本,因此您可以期待我們取得更大的進步。

  • Before I turn it over to Wayne, I want to take a brief moment to thank all the people of Optum who continue to work every day to ensure our customers and our patients get the best experience and care we can offer. Wayne.

    在將發言權交給韋恩之前,我想花一點時間感謝Optum的所有員工,感謝他們每天辛勤工作,確保我們的客戶和患者獲得我們所能提供的最佳體驗和護理。韋恩。

  • Wayne DeVeydt - Chief Financial Officer

    Wayne DeVeydt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks Patrick, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by diving right into our 2025 results. Today, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $16.35, which was slightly ahead of our expectations. These results reflect continued solid execution across the enterprise that will carry into 2026.

    謝謝派崔克,大家早安。我將首先深入探討我們 2025 年的預測結果。今天,我們公佈了調整後每股收益為 16.35 美元,略高於我們的預期。這些結果反映了整個企業持續穩健的執行力,並將延續到 2026 年。

  • As Steve noted, the quarter included a $1.6 billion net of tax charge or $1.78 per share, which was largely non-cash and primarily related to actions within Optum. This net charge has three primary components.

    正如史蒂夫所指出的,該季度包括 16 億美元的稅後支出,即每股 1.78 美元,這筆支出大部分為非現金支出,主要與 Optum 內部的行動有關。此淨費用主要由三部分組成。

  • First, a true up for all remaining cyberattack related activities, including approximately $800 million for net collection expectations associated with provider loans and other customer balances.

    首先,對所有剩餘的網路攻擊相關活動進行核算,包括與供應商貸款和其他客戶餘額相關的約 8 億美元的淨收款預期。

  • Second, a net gain of about $440 million related to portfolio optimization activities associated with assets we are exiting or plan to exit.

    其次,與我們正在退出或計劃退出的資產相關的投資組合優化活動,淨收益約為 4.4 億美元。

  • And third, a $2.5 billion related charge principally to broad restructuring and other actions, including contract reassessments, real estate rationalization, and workforce reductions. Of note, approximately $625 million of this charge relates to a lost contract reserve for third-party contractual relationships within the Optum portfolio that are structurally unprofitable and that we could not exit for 2026.

    第三,一項 25 億美元的相關費用主要用於廣泛的重組和其他措施,包括合約重新評估、房地產合理化和裁員。值得注意的是,這筆費用中約有 6.25 億美元與 Optum 投資組合中第三方合約關係的損失合約準備金有關,這些合約關係在結構上是不盈利的,而且我們無法在 2026 年退出。

  • These actions are aligned with our broader efforts to improve focus and execution to drive more sustainable long-term earnings performance.

    這些舉措與我們為提高專注度和執行力以推動更永續的長期獲利績效所做的更廣泛努力是一致的。

  • Some additional details for the full year 2025. We delivered revenues of nearly $448 billion reflecting 12% growth from 2024, driven by domestic membership growth of over 415,000 people. Our medical care ratio of 89.1% came in slightly better than our expectations. This includes approximately 20 basis points of negative charge-related impacts, primarily associated with the lost contract reserve I just discussed.

    2025 年全年的一些補充細節。我們實現了近 4,480 億美元的收入,比 2024 年增長了 12%,這主要得益於國內會員人數增長超過 415,000 人。我們的醫療保健覆蓋率達到 89.1%,略優於我們的預期。這包括大約 20 個基點的負面費用相關影響,主要與我剛才討論的損失的合約準備金有關。

  • Our operating cost ratio of 13.3% demonstrates strong management discipline while balancing key investments in people and capabilities that support long-term performance improvements. The operating cost ratio was slightly higher than anticipated due to approximately 40 basis points of charge-related impacts. Higher than originally contemplated because of approximately $800 million in broad-based employee incentives and funding to the UnitedHealth Foundation.

    我們13.3%的營運成本率反映了強大的管理紀律,同時兼顧了對人員和能力的關鍵投資,從而支持長期績效的提升。由於費用相關影響,營運成本比率略高於預期,約 40 個基點。由於向聯合健康基金會提供了約 8 億美元的廣泛員工激勵和資金,因此高於最初設想的數額。

  • Investing in our workforce and the communities we serve both are critically important to this enterprise. Finally, earnings were supported by strong cash flows of $19.7 billion, or approximately 1.5 times net income.

    投資我們的員工隊伍和我們所服務的社區,對這家企業來說都至關重要。最後,強勁的現金流(197億美元,約為淨利的1.5倍)支撐了獲利。

  • Turning to our 2026 outlook. We expect revenues of approximately $440 billion net earnings of at least $17.10 per share, and adjusted net earnings of greater than $17.75 per share. This reflects anticipated operational improvements and margin stabilization as we continue executing against our long-term strategy.

    接下來展望2026年。我們預計營收約 4,400 億美元,每股淨收益至少為 17.10 美元,調整後每股淨收益將超過 17.75 美元。這反映了隨著我們繼續執行長期策略,預期中的營運改善和利潤率穩定。

  • We expect slightly under two-thirds of full year earnings to be generated in the first half of the year. This seasonal progression is largely consistent with 2025 and reflects the impact of Part D benefit changes under the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as overall business mix.

    我們預計全年收益的近三分之二將在上半年產生。這項季節性變化與 2025 年的情況基本一致,反映了《通貨膨脹削減法案》下 D 部分福利變化的影響,以及整體業務組合的影響。

  • Turning the cash flow, we expect to generate at least $18 billion from operations in 2026, or about 1.1 times net income. Our medical care ratio is expected to be 88.8% plus or minus 50 basis points, reflecting our view that medical care activity will likely remain at current trend levels through 2026.

    從現金流來看,我們預計 2026 年營運收入將至少達到 180 億美元,約為淨收入的 1.1 倍。我們的醫療保健比率預計為 88.8%,上下浮動 50 個基點,這反映出我們認為醫療保健活動到 2026 年可能會保持在目前的趨勢水平。

  • Consistent with prior years, we expect the first half medical care ratio to be notably below the midpoint, with the second half notably above.

    與往年一致,我們預計上半年醫療保健比率將明顯低於中點,下半年將明顯高於中點。

  • The operating cost ratio is expected to be 12.8% plus or minus 50 basis points. This reflects discipline, cost management, ongoing productivity initiatives, and the early benefits of our investments in artificial intelligence, while also incorporating required investments in people and technology.

    預計營運成本比率為 12.8%,上下浮動 50 個基點。這體現了我們的紀律性、成本管理、持續的生產力提升措施以及我們在人工智慧領域投資的早期效益,同時也包含了對人員和技術的必要投資。

  • Our 2026 outlook reflects the realignment of Optum Financial Services from Optum Health into Optum Insight. We believe this better optimizes the Optum portfolio and aligns with how we expect to engage the marketplace and grow through the Optum AI network.

    我們的 2026 年展望反映了 Optum Financial Services 從 Optum Health 重組為 Optum Insight。我們相信這將更好地優化 Optum 產品組合,並符合我們預期透過 Optum AI 網路參與市場和實現成長的方式。

  • Finally, on capital and liquidity. For 2026, we expect our dividend to remain well supported by earnings and cash flow. As we look ahead, we expect leverage to continue improving through the year, supported by strong cash generation and a more stable operating environment, and to reach our long-term debt to capital target of approximately 40% before year end.

    最後,關於資本和流動性。我們預計2026年股利將繼續得到獲利和現金流的良好支撐。展望未來,我們預計在強勁的現金流和更穩定的經營環境的支持下,槓桿率將在年內繼續改善,並在年底前達到我們長期債務資本比約為 40% 的目標。

  • And as this progress continues, we expect to return to our historical capital deployment practices in the second half of the year.

    隨著這一進展的持續,我們預計將在今年下半年恢復我們過去的資本部署做法。

  • Before closing, I want to echo what Steve, Tim, and Patrick have said about the people of UnitedHealth Group. 2025 was a year of challenges on multiple fronts. Our team stepped up, embraced those challenges, and remained focused on delivering for the people we serve.

    最後,我想重申史蒂夫、提姆和派崔克對聯合健康集團員工的評價。 2025年是充滿多面向挑戰的一年。我們的團隊挺身而出,迎接挑戰,並始終專注於為我們服務的人們提供優質服務。

  • Now, I'll turn it back to Steve for some closing remarks.

    現在,我把麥克風交還給史蒂夫,讓他做些總結發言。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Wayne. I hope everyone is getting the sense from today's comments that we're returning to the operating and executional focus and the quality financial disciplines that have served us well.

    謝謝你,韋恩。我希望大家能從今天的發言中感受到,我們正在回歸到以往行之有效的營運和執行重點以及高品質的財務紀律。

  • Details matter in these businesses. These approaches are essential to enable us to better serve customers and consumers and the expectation of shareholders. That commitment to serve is embodied in our mission to help people live healthier lives and to help make the health system work better for everyone, and it's supported by a deliberate culture.

    在這些行業,細節至關重要。這些方法對於我們更好地服務客戶和消費者以及滿足股東的期望至關重要。我們致力於服務大眾,我們的使命是幫助人們過上更健康的生活,並幫助醫療系統更好地為所有人服務,而這種服務精神也得到了精心營造的企業文化的支持。

  • To that end, I would call out three overarching themes we're pursuing. The first is to refocus back to that mission and culture. We are re-energizing and retooling that sense of mission and culture throughout the company, which is already the core reason so many of our colleagues joined this enterprise.

    為此,我想提出我們正在探討的三個總體主題。首先要重新聚焦於那項使命和文化。我們正在重新激發和調整公司內部的使命感和文化,而這正是我們許多同事加入這項事業的核心原因。

  • The second is the urgent thoughtful application of modern intelligent technologies. These efforts can help address long-standing needs in healthcare for simplicity, speed, certainty, insight, consumer empowerment, and convenience.

    第二點是迫切需要深思熟慮地應用現代智慧技術。這些努力有助於滿足醫療保健領域長期以來對簡便性、速度、確定性、洞察力、消費者賦權和便利性的需求。

  • We're hoping to invest nearly $1.5 billion in 2026 and expect at least as much to follow in 2027. This work is making a difference within our organization today, and we expect it will serve as the foundation for external versions that can benefit the broad health system through Optum Insight.

    我們希望在 2026 年投資近 15 億美元,並預計 2027 年至少會有相同數量的投資。這項工作目前正在對我們組織產生影響,我們期望它能為外部版本奠定基礎,從而透過 Optum Insight 造福更廣泛的醫療系統。

  • Lastly, we are methodically taking steps to advance greater trust and transparency wherever we serve the public healthcare interests. This began with the independent reviews of business practices and risk assessment in pharmacy services and in care management. Those first independent reports were published in December, and the remediation recommendations will be completed and reported no later than March of this year.

    最後,我們正在有條不紊地採取措施,在我們服務於公共醫療保健利益的任何地方,推動更大的信任和透明度。這一切始於對藥房服務和護理管理中的業務實踐和風險評估進行獨立審查。首批獨立報告已於 12 月發布,補救建議將於今年 3 月前完成並提交報告。

  • Further independent oversight reviews and reports are in process today and will continue. And in addition, in 2026, we will begin to publish our results in areas of interest such as prior authorizations and claim approval rates, certain performance statistics data, and trends, rebate practices and prices for products and services, key business and core management practices and policies.

    目前正在進行進一步的獨立監督審查和報告,並將繼續進行。此外,從 2026 年開始,我們將公佈我們在以下領域的研究成果:事先授權和索賠批准率、某些績效統計數據和趨勢、產品和服務的回扣做法和價格、關鍵業務和核心管理實踐和政策。

  • For methods such as these and more, as they evolve, we will become even more publicly accountable for our performance and strive every day to improve it. We thank you for your time this morning. We'll now open it up for your questions, operator, please.

    對於諸如此類的方法以及更多其他方法,隨著這些方法的不斷發展,我們將更加公開地對自己的表現負責,並努力每天改進。感謝您今天上午抽出時間。現在我們開放提問環節,請接線生提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Josh Raskin, Nephron Research.

    (操作說明)Josh Raskin,腎單位研究。

  • Joshua Raskin - Analyst

    Joshua Raskin - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks, good morning. I appreciate all the details. So, you're guiding to a decline in 2026 in traditional MA lives of almost mid-teens. And the proposed rates for 2027, as Tim mentioned, might indicate the need to further refine benefits, even more than that.

    您好,謝謝,早安。感謝您提供的所有細節。所以,你的意思是說,到 2026 年,馬薩諸塞州傳統意義上的青少年壽命將會縮短。正如蒂姆所提到的,2027 年的擬議費率可能表明,需要進一步完善福利,甚至需要更多。

  • So do you think we're at the bottom of the MA cycle now? Should we expect MA margins to improve, not just what you mentioned in '26, but in 2027. And then if you could help frame how important that core MA book is to the other segments of the enterprise, especially Optum Health.

    所以你認為我們現在處於移動平均線週期的底部嗎?我們是否應該預期 MA 利潤率會提高,不僅是您在 2026 年提到的情況,而且是 2027 年的情況。然後,如果您能幫助闡明這本核心 MA 書籍對企業其他部門,特別是 Optum Health 的重要性,那就太好了。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, so, Josh, maybe I'll, maybe respond to the second half of your question, and then Tim Noel can kind of respond to the first. But our interest has always been to serve all the markets in healthcare, all the segments, and also the national health system as a whole.

    是的,Josh,也許我會回答你問題的後半部分,然後 Tim Noel 可以回答前半部分。但我們始終致力於服務醫療保健領域的所有市場、所有細分市場,以及整個國家醫療體系。

  • And MA is certainly important in that sense, and it's important to Optum Health and Optum RX just as you suggest. But I also might turn it around another way because the Optum businesses are extremely complimentary to UnitedHealthcare and its benefits.

    從這個意義上講,MA 當然很重要,而且正如您所說,它對 Optum Health 和 Optum RX 也很重要。但我也可以換個角度來看,因為 Optum 的業務與 UnitedHealthcare 及其福利非常互補。

  • And to many other payers, and that's why we believe, and that we are bringing more broadly to the healthcare market that a very broad value, really across the board, and that is why you really, you have to strike the right balance. When you're thinking about this in terms of growth and membership really across the whole of the UnitedHealth Group platform. Tim?

    對於許多其他支付者來說,這也是我們所相信的,我們正在為醫療保健市場帶來更廣泛的價值,真正地在各個方面都如此,這就是為什麼你必須找到正確的平衡。當你從整個聯合健康集團平台的成長和會員發展角度來思考這個問題時,你會發現這一點非常重要。提姆?

  • Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

    Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

  • Hi, good morning, Josh, and thanks for the question. So let me, start the conversation with 2026, and as I hit on in the opening remarks, our strategy in '26, did focus on more so on margin than it did on any specific membership target.

    嗨,早上好,喬希,謝謝你的提問。那麼,就讓我從 2026 年開始談談吧。正如我在開場白中提到的,我們在 2026 年的策略更專注於利潤率,而不是任何具體的會員目標。

  • And that is all really playing out as expected when you think about some of the core and key pricing assumptions that we made as we close out '25, those look to be good assumptions that we made and they're really holding firm.

    考慮到我們在 2025 年底做出的一些核心和關鍵定價假設,這一切實際上都如預期般發展,這些假設看起來都是合理的,而且它們確實站得住腳。

  • So we feel good about our margin recovery efforts of about 50 basis points across Medicare Advantage. The membership losses, while they're a little north of what we were talking about, earlier, really kind of sit within our internal planning range. So I can, I think about that all as a real solid foundation that we're setting, for 2026, as we then head into 2027.

    因此,我們對Medicare Advantage業務利潤率恢復約50個基點感到滿意。雖然會員流失人數比我們之前討論的要多一些,但實際上還是在我們內部規劃的範圍內。所以,我認為這一切都為我們2026年奠定了堅實的基礎,然後我們才能邁向2027年。

  • So moving into 2027, the news that we received last night, in the advance notice was disappointing. And it was because it's a further reduction for a program that has experienced $130 billion in benefit or [pardon me], in funding reductions over the last three years under the prior administration, which is particularly concerning for a program that provides excellent choice, access, and affordability for America's seniors, and does so with satisfaction rates north of 95%, while saving money for taxpayers.

    因此,展望 2027 年,我們昨晚收到的提前通知令人失望。這是因為,在過去三年裡,前政府的撥款已經削減了 1300 億美元的資金,或者更確切地說,削減了 1300 億美元的福利,這對於一個為美國老年人提供極佳選擇、便利和負擔得起的服務,且滿意度超過 95%,同時還為納稅人省錢的項目來說,尤其令人擔憂。

  • So we're going to of course work with CMS from now until the rates are finalized, but as this all sits today, as I talked about, it will mean very meaningful benefit reductions. And we'll once again need to take a hard look at our geographic footprint, our product footprint, across the country. And has the likelihood to play out not dissimilar to how 2026 did in terms of modifications to plan footprint and benefits.

    所以,從現在到最終確定費率,我們當然會與 CMS 合作,但就目前的情況來看,正如我剛才所說,這將意味著非常顯著的福利削減。我們將再次認真審視我們在全國的地理佈局和產品佈局。2026 年的情況很可能與 2026 年類似,在計畫規模和效益方面都會有所調整。

  • We don't see this to be something that's going to be broadly disproportionate, payer by payer. Therefore, seniors kind of across the sector are going to experience this implications of reduced choice, reduced access, and affordability challenges.

    我們認為這不會造成各支付方之間普遍存在的不成比例的差異。因此,整個行業的老年人都會面臨選擇減少、獲取途徑減少和負擔能力下降等問題。

  • And given all of this and kind of where we sit, too early to talk point estimates, around margin, or membership for 2027. But I will say this, that over the long-term given the actions that we have taken in 2026 and our integrated business model that as Steve alluded to really focuses on value-based care, those things having a strong foundation, focusing on value-based models are going to be even more important in this environment that we're being asked to operate. Thanks for the question, Josh.

    鑑於所有這些因素以及我們目前所處的位置,現在談論 2027 年的利潤率或會員人數的估計點還為時過早。但我要說的是,從長遠來看,鑑於我們在 2026 年採取的行動以及我們整合的商業模式(正如史蒂夫提到的,該模式真正專注於以價值為基礎的護理),這些事情有了堅實的基礎,專注於以價值為基礎的模式,在我們被要求運營的這種環境中將變得更加重要。謝謝你的提問,喬希。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Next question, please.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Justin Lake, Wolfe Research.

    賈斯汀·萊克,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Justin Lake - Analyst

    Justin Lake - Analyst

  • Thanks, good morning. Wanted to ask about the fourth quarter Optum Health performance. You guided to just under $3 billion of OI, with the third quarter results, and if I'm doing the adjusted math correctly, came in closer to $2.3 billion. So underperformed by $600 million-$700 million of OI in the fourth quarter.

    謝謝,早安。想了解Optum Health第四季的業績狀況。您預測第三季營業收入將略低於 30 億美元,但如果我調整後的計算正確的話,實際數字接近 23 億美元。因此,第四季未實現營業收入比預期低了 6 億至 7 億美元。

  • It's fairly surprising to still see this kind of volatility in the business that late in the year. Was hoping you could lay out the drivers there and talk to what gives you guys confidence in more stable performance in 2026 and given that fourth quarter volatility coming out of the year. Thanks.

    到了年底,商業市場仍然出現這種波動,實實令人驚訝。我希望你們能詳細闡述一下驅動因素,並談談是什麼讓你們對 2026 年更穩定的業績有信心,考慮到今年第四季的波動性。謝謝。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • A good question, Justin, and very much focused on making sure that we really took a hard look at that whole -- the whole of the Optum Health business. So Krista, do you want to respond?

    賈斯汀,你問得好。我們非常注重確保認真審視整個 Optum Health 業務。克麗斯塔,你想回應一下嗎?

  • Krista Nelson - CEO of UnitedHealthcare Community & State

    Krista Nelson - CEO of UnitedHealthcare Community & State

  • Yeah, absolutely, thanks for the question, Justin. So, it results in the fourth quarter and for the full year we're slightly disappointing to our expectations. But really reflective of the restructuring actions that we took in the fourth quarter as well as some one-time items that are now right behind us.

    是的,當然,謝謝你的提問,賈斯汀。因此,第四季和全年的業績都略低於預期。但這確實反映了我們在第四季採取的重組措施,以及一些現在已經過去的一次性事項。

  • In addition, in the fourth quarter, medical remained elevated but consistent with our expectations. So excluding restructuring and the move of Optum Financial, our adjusted earnings, are now approximately $1.5 billion, which is our new baseline that we will continue to build off of in the future.

    此外,第四季醫療費用仍然較高,但與我們的預期一致。因此,若不計重組和Optum Financial的搬遷,我們調整後的收益目前約為15億美元,這是我們新的基準,我們將在未來繼續以此為基礎發展。

  • Maybe I'll just take a quick step back and answer the second part of your question, which is, what gives us confidence?

    或許我應該退後一步,回答你問題的第二部分,那就是,是什麼給了我們自信?

  • We have reoriented Optum Health back towards our original purpose, and we have a full integrated value-based care delivery system, where we employ and deeply partner with providers across multiple service lines including primary and specialty care, imaging, surgery, home health, behavioral health, and additional wrap around services to support our patients.

    我們已將 Optum Health 重新調整回其最初的目標,並建立了一個完全整合的以價值為基礎的醫療服務體系,我們聘用並與多個服務領域的供應商深度合作,包括初級和專科護理、影像、外科手術、家庭健康、行為健康以及其他配套服務,以支持我們的患者。

  • It's a system that's anchored by primary care and an aligned payment model which incentivizes improved outcomes, offering preventive and holistic care and compared to a system that rewards volume of services.

    這是一個以初級保健為基礎,並採用相應的支付模式來激勵改善治療效果的系統,提供預防性和整體性的護理,與獎勵服務量的系統相比,該系統更具優勢。

  • And you know we've established this strategic clarity in the business and paired it with a very comprehensive evaluation of our assets and capabilities. Which as a result, we took meaningful actions in the fourth quarter to strengthen our foundation.

    你知道,我們已經在業務中確立了這種策略清晰度,並對我們的資產和能力進行了非常全面的評估。因此,我們在第四季度採取了切實有效的措施來加強我們的基礎。

  • And in addition to that, I'm pleased with progress that we've made reshaping our risk portfolio, refining our network, and bolstering operations, and I would say we're significantly stronger today than we were just six months ago. Thanks for the question.

    除此之外,我對我們在重塑風險組合、改善網路和加強營運方面取得的進展感到滿意,我認為我們今天的實力比六個月前要強得多。謝謝你的提問。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So a really solid shakeout, a totally different management and leadership team. And a much more rigorous approach. A lot of potential there. Yes, next question, please.

    所以,這是一次徹底的人事調整,管理階層和領導團隊完全不同了。而且需要採取更嚴謹的方法。那裡潛力無窮。好的,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin Fischbeck, Bank of America.

    凱文‧菲施貝克,美國銀行。

  • Kevin Fischbeck - Analyst

    Kevin Fischbeck - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. I wanted to go back to the ['27] and a rate update. Basically, it sounds like you're saying that trend is the biggest part you want to go back to the government with. But I wanted to focus I guess on the two kind of coding components that, if you take out normalization -- 1.8 for the risk model and another 1.5 for charts.

    太好了,謝謝。我想回到['27]並更新利率。基本上,聽起來你的意思是,你想把趨勢作為最重要的部分提交給政府。但我更想專注於兩種編碼組件,如果去掉歸一化,風險模型為 1.8,圖表為 1.5。

  • So it's like a 3.3% headwind, I think that with B28 you guys talked about an impact that was more than what the industry was seeing. Would you expect a similar dynamic with these two coding components that, as a company is probably better than average of coding, you'd see more than this kind of 3.3% headwind, that we're calculating.

    所以這就像3.3%的逆風,我認為你們在B28會議上談到的影響比產業實際感受到的還要大。您是否認為這兩個編碼元件也會出現類似的動態?考慮到公司編碼水平可能高於平均水平,您認為應該會遇到比我們計算出的 3.3% 更大的阻力。

  • And do you still feel good about, if that's true, do you still feel good about getting to a 5% margin in value-based care Optum Health? Thanks.

    如果情況屬實,您是否仍對 Optum Health 在基於價值的醫療保健領域實現 5% 的利潤率感到滿意?謝謝。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, Tim, do you want to address that?

    當然,提姆,你想談談這個問題嗎?

  • Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

    Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

  • Yeah, Kevin, thanks for the question. So, no, we don't expect the impact to be different for us, versus the rest of the industry on those two elements that you outlined. Our modeling shows consistency between what we're seeing and also what the estimates are of industry averages on those two elements.

    是的,凱文,謝謝你的提問。所以,不,我們預計您提到的這兩個方面對我們造成的影響,與業內其他公司不會有所不同。我們的模型顯示,我們所觀察到的情況與產業平均值的估計值在這兩個要素上是一致的。

  • Kevin Fischbeck - Analyst

    Kevin Fischbeck - Analyst

  • And Outlook.

    還有 Outlook。

  • Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

    Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

  • So Kevin, was there a second part to your question?

    凱文,你的問題還有第二部分嗎?

  • Kevin Fischbeck - Analyst

    Kevin Fischbeck - Analyst

  • Yeah, the second part was Optum Health margins with this rate cut because you look at the 5%.

    是的,第二部分是 Optum Health 在這次降價後的利潤率,因為你會看到 5% 的降幅。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Krista.

    是的,克麗絲塔。

  • Krista Nelson - CEO of UnitedHealthcare Community & State

    Krista Nelson - CEO of UnitedHealthcare Community & State

  • Yeah, thanks for that question. I would just say, it's early. We have opportunities to improve performance in the business, just outside of MA rates.

    謝謝你的提問。我只想說,現在還早。除了 MA 利率之外,我們還有機會提高業務績效。

  • Let me just give you a couple of examples that really give me confidence and why there's -- why we're really confident in getting back to our long-term target margins, I've gotten to spend time with our care teams, and after we've done that complete, thoughtful evaluation of our performance and our businesses. We do have many high performing markets today that really deliver strong outcomes for our patients.

    讓我舉幾個例子來說明,這些例子真的讓我充滿信心,也解釋了為什麼我們對恢復長期目標利潤率充滿信心。我花時間與我們的護理團隊交流,之後我們對自身的績效和業務進行了全面、深思熟慮的評估。如今我們有許多表現優異的市場,確實為我們的患者帶來了良好的治療效果。

  • One example worth highlighting is a large market in Texas. Where we serve over 750,000 patients across over 50 clinics offering that holistic care I described, primary care, labs, imaging, specialty care, home health, surgery, care coordination, we're really proud of our results.

    值得一提的例子是德州的大型市場。我們在 50 多家診所為超過 75 萬名患者提供服務,提供我所描述的全面護理,包括初級保健、實驗室檢查、影像檢查、專科護理、家庭保健、外科手術和護理協調,我們為所取得的成果感到非常自豪。

  • For example, here we've got a 4.5-star health plan. We have total cost of care that is approximately 30% better than our competitors. A patient satisfaction of 90, really strong provider retention and margins already performing in our long-term target margin range.

    例如,這裡有一個 4.5 星級的健康計劃。我們的總護理成本比競爭對手低約 30%。病患滿意度達到 90 分,醫護人員留存率非常高,利潤率達到我們長期目標利潤率範圍。

  • Another example that just gives me confidence here is we've got about 30% of our mature value-based care patients that are already again inside that target margin range or above. And so, those two examples combined with the work I described previously that we're doing to improve the consistency of our performance just give me a lot of confidence in the runway ahead for Optum Health.

    另一個讓我更有信心的例子是,我們大約有 30% 的成熟的基於價值的醫療保健患者已經再次達到或超過了目標利潤率範圍。因此,這兩個例子,再加上我之前描述的我們為提高績效一致性所做的工作,讓我對 Optum Health 的未來充滿信心。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So really more about execution really than any other single factor really is focused on execution. Yes, thanks for the question. Next, please.

    所以,真正比起其他單一因素,執行力才是最重要的。我們真正關注的是執行力。是的,謝謝你的提問。下一位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Baxter, Wells Fargo.

    史蒂芬‧巴克斯特,富國銀行。

  • Stephen Baxter - Analyst

    Stephen Baxter - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, thanks, in the Medicaid business, I think you made reference to getting a little bit of rate relief. So I was hoping you could speak to 11 rates that you're seeing and maybe contrast that to the rates you were seeing in 2025.

    是的,你好,謝謝。在醫療補助業務方面,我想你提到過可以獲得一些費率減免。所以我希望您能談談您目前看到的 11 個利率,並將它們與您在 2025 年看到的利率進行比較。

  • And in general if the rates are coming in a little bit better and it seems like there's not going to be any material impact from early starts to work requirements, if you kind of revisited your margin assumption for the Medicaid business at all in 2026, thanks.

    總的來說,如果利率有所好轉,而且提前開工似乎不會對工作要求產生任何實質影響,那麼如果您能重新考慮一下 2026 年醫療補助業務的利潤率假設,那就太好了。

  • Unidentified Company Representative 1

    Unidentified Company Representative 1

  • Thanks, Stephen, for the question. I'll give you kind of an overview of where we are on rates. For 2026 our view remains unchanged in terms of overall performance. Our Medicaid business -- for Medicaid business, we do expect some margin contraction due to the ongoing dislocation of rates and continued elevated medical trends.

    謝謝史蒂芬的提問。我來幫你大致介紹一下我們目前的利率狀況。對於 2026 年的整體表現,我們的看法保持不變。我們的醫療補助業務-對於醫療補助業務,我們預期由於費率持續波動和醫療成本持續走高,利潤率會有所下降。

  • We are projecting rate increases in the range of 6% to 7% in aggregate for the year. But that will continue to be below our medical trend. And we do expect some membership contraction as we continue to manage the business. For January 1, our rates are somewhat in line with our expectations, and again, we expect our rates to range between 6% to 7% for the year, as we think about 2026. Thanks for the question.

    我們預計全年利率總漲幅將在 6% 至 7% 之間。但這比例仍將低於我們的醫療趨勢。我們預計,隨著業務的持續發展,會員人數將會出現一定程度的減少。1 月 1 日起,我們的利率基本上符合預期,我們預計,展望 2026 年,全年利率將在 6% 至 7% 之間。謝謝你的提問。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Next question, please.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lisa Gill, JP Morgan.

    Lisa Gill,摩根大通。

  • Lisa Gill - Analyst

    Lisa Gill - Analyst

  • Thanks very much and good morning. I wanted to ask a couple questions on the Optum Rx side. First, Wayne, you made a comment that due to Part D we're going to see, earnings more first half driven. Can you talk about the changes around the subsidies and the impact that we have on Part D?

    非常感謝,早安。我想問幾個關於Optum Rx方面的問題。首先,韋恩,你曾說過,由於D部分的影響,我們將會看到上半年的收益更多地受到驅動。能談談補貼方面的變化以及這些變化對D部分的影響嗎?

  • And then, secondly, when we think about Optum RX. You talked about the member contractions because of what happened on the United side, but 800 new clients on that side. Last quarter you talked about combining prescription and medical benefit trends. Can you just talk about those 800 new clients and you know if there's anything different that you're seeing in them as we think about '26?

    其次,當我們想到 Optum RX 時。你提到由於美聯航方面發生的事情導致會員人數減少,但美聯航方面卻新增了 800 名客戶。上個季度你們談到了處方藥和醫療福利趨勢的結合。能談談這 800 位新客戶嗎?在展望 2026 年時,您覺得他們有什麼不同?

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So maybe the first question of Bobby and then John, the second part.

    所以,或許鮑比的第一個問題是,然後是約翰的第二個問題。

  • Robert Hunter - CEO of Government Programs & Head of Medicare Insurance

    Robert Hunter - CEO of Government Programs & Head of Medicare Insurance

  • Yeah, hey. Thanks, Lisa, for the question. So, maybe just kind of hit quickly on the Part D side. I mean, Wayne did talk about the seasonality dynamic, we've been pretty clear, I think now with the implementation of the IRA we do see more of an even kind of seasonal trending throughout the year.

    是啊,嘿。謝謝麗莎的提問。所以,或許可以快速完成D部分。我的意思是,韋恩確實談到了季節性動態,我們已經非常明確地指出,我認為現在隨著IRA的實施,我們確實看到了全年更加均衡的季節性趨勢。

  • So you know that element is certainly kind of foundational in the outlook when you think about the actual 2026 benefit design, the way that we position the benefits, on the Part D both for standalone PDP and MAPD. I think it's very reflective of the way that the IRA has evolved the program, the way that the industry has largely kind of evolved the design.

    所以你知道,當你考慮 2026 年的實際福利設計,以及我們如何定位福利(包括 D 部分中的獨立 PDP 和 MAPD)時,這個因素肯定是前景的基礎。我認為這充分反映了IRA專案的發展方式,以及整個產業在很大程度上對設計的改進。

  • So I feel like we're in pretty good lockstep there with where overall industry is moving. And as I look at just kind of how 2025 closed out on the pharmacy cost for us inside the health plan. I feel pretty good about the overall trend on balance between all the key drivers things like specialty trend, brand utilization, etc.

    所以我覺得我們和整個產業的發展方向相當一致。當我查看 2025 年我們健康計劃中的藥房費用時,情況就有所不同了。我覺得整體趨勢相當不錯,綜合考慮了所有關鍵驅動因素,例如專業化趨勢、品牌利用率等。

  • So it gives me pretty good belief in our outlook and our positioning for 2026. And early in the year I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise, thanks for the question.

    所以這讓我對我們2026年的前景和定位充滿信心。今年年初我還沒看到任何相反的跡象,謝謝你的提問。

  • Unidentified Company Representative 2

    Unidentified Company Representative 2

  • Fantastic, Bobby and Lisa, thanks for the question. So maybe, building on the membership growth, I'll pick up, where Patrick left off and some of his opening comments, a strong selling season, in 2026 combined with continued high 90s retention allowed us to backfill, about half, maybe more than half of the membership loss from UHC.

    太好了,Bobby 和 Lisa,謝謝你們的提問。所以,或許可以藉鏡會員成長的勢頭,我接著派崔克未完成的部分以及他的一些開場白繼續說,2026 年強勁的銷售季加上持續 90% 以上的會員留存率,使我們能夠彌補 UHC 會員流失的大約一半,甚至可能超過一半。

  • And so that puts us in a nice position to deliver a modest 2% earnings growth in 2026 for a business that we expect will return to the low double-digit to high single-digit -- low single-digit to high excuse me, high single-digit to low double-digit earnings growth.

    因此,這讓我們有信心在 2026 年實現適度的 2% 盈利增長,我們預計該業務的盈利增長率將恢復到兩位數低段到個位數高段——抱歉,是兩位數高段到兩位數低段的水平。

  • And if I unpack that, Lisa, to your question on what are we seeing in the market and why are we winning? Why did those 800 new clients choose Optum RX.

    麗莎,如果我詳細解釋一下,來回答你關於我們目前在市場上看到什麼以及我們為什麼能夠獲勝的問題?為什麼這800位新客戶選擇了Optum RX?

  • Couple of points, we -- our businesses are performing strongly. Each of our core businesses, growing in the high single-digits, and the reason we're winning threefold affordability, transparency, and execution.

    有幾點需要說明,我們——我們的業務表現強勁。我們每個核心業務都實現了接近兩位數的成長,而我們成功的原因在於:可負擔性、透明度和執行力三重提升。

  • From an affordability perspective, our clients have never needed us more than now, and good perspective activity there. We're committed to bringing affordability to those that we serve.

    從經濟承受能力的角度來看,我們的客戶從未像現在這樣需要我們,而且前景良好。我們致力於為我們服務的對象提供價格合理的產品和服務。

  • For our clients, Optum Rx generates more than $100 billion in savings annually through negotiations with drug manufacturers and network pharmacies.

    Optum Rx 透過與藥品製造商和合作藥局的談判,每年為客戶節省超過 1000 億美元。

  • And then for our members and patients, we deliver more than $1 billion in savings annually through our price edge and specialty IQ solutions.

    此外,我們透過價格優勢和專業 IQ 解決方案,每年為我們的會員和患者節省超過 10 億美元。

  • From a transparency perspective, frankly, we're proud to be leading the transparency transformation in this industry. And this begins with the industry's only fully transparent pharmacy and therapeutics committee. And then it continues through the supply chain with wholesome instrumentation around manufacture, network, and the wholesaler drug pricing.

    從透明度的角度來看,坦白說,我們很自豪能夠引領這個行業的透明度變革。而這一切都始於業界唯一完全透明的藥學和治療委員會。然後,它沿著供應鏈繼續發展,圍繞製造、網路和批發藥品定價提供完善的儀器。

  • And so we couple all of this with our commitment to pass through 100% of rebates to the clients by 2028 and then we wrap that in a transparency guarantee around our offering for our clients.

    因此,我們將所有這些與我們承諾在 2028 年前將 100% 的返利返還給客戶的承諾結合起來,然後我們以透明度保證來保障我們為客戶提供的服務。

  • And then finally rounding out on experience, we're making it easier for all those that we serve providers, clients, and members to interact with us. In our pharmacies, record high NPS in our home delivery pharmacy. Our behavioral health pharmacy delivering 90% NPS for the patients that we serve. And in our hospital-based specialty pharmacies, high 90s NPS for patients and low 90s for providers.

    最後,為了完善使用者體驗,我們正在讓所有服務對象(包括供應商、客戶和會員)更容易與我們互動。在我們藥局的送貨上門服務中,NPS 值創歷史新高。我們的行為健康藥局為我們服務的患者提供了 90% 的 NPS 評分。在我們醫院的專科藥局中,病患的 NPS 評分高達 90 分以上,而醫護人員的 NPS 評分也只有 90 分左右。

  • And then finally, Lisa, we're eliminating provider and patient abrasions. So, as Patrick mentioned, we reduced or removed reauthorization requirements for more than 180 drugs that had the net effect of reducing our overall prior authorizations by more than 10%.

    最後,麗莎,我們要消除醫病之間的摩擦。正如帕特里克所提到的,我們減少或取消了 180 多種藥物的重新授權要求,最終使我們的整體事先授權減少了 10% 以上。

  • So in summary, transformational vision is compelling. Our offering is resonating. Our team is executing, and we're well positioned for 2026. Thanks for the question.

    總之,變革願景具有強烈的吸引力。我們的產品引起了共鳴。我們的團隊正在積極執行計劃,我們已為 2026 年做好了充分準備。謝謝你的提問。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you. Next question, please.

    謝謝。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Fidell, Goldman Sachs.

    Scott Fidell,高盛集團。

  • Scott Fidell - Analyst

    Scott Fidell - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks, good morning, I guess I'll slip over to the commercial business. And interested if you could just provide us with the breakdown of the $1.3 million to $1.4 million commercial risk lives that you're expecting to decline in 2026. How that breaks out between commercial group and then the exchanges?

    您好,謝謝,早安,我想我還是去商業部門看看吧。我們很想知道,您能否提供預計在 2026 年將減少的 130 萬至 140 萬美元商業風險人壽保險的細分情況。商業集團和交易所之間是如何劃分的?

  • And then also just in terms of margins year-over-year progression for commercial group and the exchanges, what you're thinking about for '26 obviously we know that you're planning to rebate the profits from the exchange business thanks.

    此外,就商業集團和交易所的利潤率同比變化而言,您對 2026 年有何考慮?顯然我們知道您計劃返還交易所業務的利潤,謝謝。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Scott. Dan?

    謝謝你,斯科特。擔?

  • Dan Schumacher - Chief Strategy and Growth Officer

    Dan Schumacher - Chief Strategy and Growth Officer

  • Yeah, Scott, thanks for the question. Addressing your membership first and then moving to margin. On membership pertaining to the risk-based decline, the largest share of that membership decline is connected to our exchange business for 2026, where we continue to expect meaningful decline between now and the end of the year.

    是的,斯科特,謝謝你的提問。先解決會員問題,然後再討論利潤率。就與風險相關的會員人數下降而言,會員人數下降的最大部分與我們 2026 年的交易所業務有關,我們預計從現在到年底,該業務的會員人數將繼續顯著下降。

  • Beyond the exchange business, general market decline of risk-based customers, our pricing posture supporting margin recovery, and continued deliberate migration to our self -- self-funded level funded small employer offerings, all contributing to a decline in risk-based membership.

    除了交易所業務之外,風險型客戶的市場整體下滑、我們支持利潤率恢復的定價策略,以及持續有意識地轉向我們自籌資金的、規模較小的雇主產品,所有這些都導致​​了風險型會員數量的下降。

  • So to parse that out specifically, 500,000 plus attributable to the exchange business, the remainder to those three factors.

    具體來說,50 多萬名歸因於交易所業務,其餘部分歸因於這三個因素。

  • Moving to the margins and first addressing the exchange business. Over the course of the decade plus in which we have operated in that market, it has never been a significant contributor of earnings for us. Our pricing posture for 2026 coming out of 2025 is going to return that market to a positive margin business for us. However, I would expect those margins in the exchange business for 2026 to be in about the 1% range, plus or minus 1% for that business.

    轉向邊緣領域​​,先解決交易所業務問題。在我們涉足該市場的十多年裡,它從未為我們帶來過顯著的收益。我們從 2025 年到 2026 年的定價策略將使該市場恢復為我們帶來正利潤的業務。不過,我預計 2026 年外匯交易業務的利潤率將在 1% 左右,上下浮動 1%。

  • Related to margin for the group business in 2026. I'm encouraged by our January performance and how that has set us up for our full year plan. Specifically for January, we found the market to be firm and competitive. And that supported us yielding the required renewal rates and membership persistency to deliver on the 2026 margin improvement that Tim alluded to in his opening remarks.

    與集團業務2026年的利潤率有關。我對我們一月份的業績感到鼓舞,這為我們全年的計劃奠定了基礎。具體到一月份,我們發現市場行情堅挺,競爭激烈。這也幫助我們實現了所需的續約費率和會員留存率,從而實現了蒂姆在開場白中提到的 2026 年利潤率提升目標。

  • Specifically, I expect us to close more than half of the gap between our 2025 margin performance and our historical margin range which we expect to achieve in 2027. Thanks for the question, Scott.

    具體來說,我預計我們將在 2027 年縮小 2025 年利潤率表現與歷史利潤率範圍之間一半以上的差距。謝謝你的提問,斯科特。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Dan. Next question, please.

    謝謝你,丹。下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • AJ Rice, UBS.

    AJ Rice,瑞銀集團。

  • AJ Rice - Analyst

    AJ Rice - Analyst

  • Hi everybody, thanks for the question. I think as you guys came back on board and got your arms around the business you talked about modest growth in '26 getting back to low double-digit earnings growth in '27 and then something more like what we're used to seeing from United in '28.

    大家好,感謝大家的提問。我認為,當你們重新掌舵並掌握了業務後,你們談到了 2026 年的溫和增長,2027 年的盈利增長將恢復到兩位數的低水平,然後在 2028 年達到我們習慣於從聯合航空看到的水平。

  • You're talking about the rate notice impacting benefit design and being felt by seniors and I think your underlying assumptions generally in Medicare and with Optum Health had been for gradual marginal improvement, not dramatic marginal improvement over the years. You've got now a view on all the other business lines. Do you still think you can get to low double-digit growth in '27 and back to traditional growth in '28 as you put it all together?

    您談到費率通知對福利設計的影響以及老年人的感受,我認為您在 Medicare 和 Optum Health 方面的基本假設通常是漸進式的邊際改善,而不是多年來劇烈的邊際改善。現在你已經了解了所有其他業務線的情況。你仍然認為,綜合所有因素來看,2027 年可以實現兩位數低成長,2028 年可以恢復傳統成長嗎?

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, well, AJ, thanks for the question. So we're not going to really talk to '27, obviously it's January of '26, so, but I would say that the business is meaningfully stronger than it was just a few months ago. And in '26 our agenda is to strengthen it even further. We'll continue to be focused on doing smart intelligent things to serve that total mission. But well within the margins that we have, operated in and continue to believe we can strengthen that.

    嗯,AJ,謝謝你的提問。所以我們顯然不會談論 2027 年的情況,現在顯然是 2026 年 1 月,但我想說的是,公司業務比幾個月前要強勁得多。2026年,我們的目標是進一步加強它。我們將繼續專注於做明智的事情,以服務這一整體使命。但在我們現有的、營運的範圍內,我們完全可以繼續加強這個範圍。

  • So I can't speak to '27, but I will speak -- let's say to a longer-term, and that is very much feel that we can operate within our long-term growth rate margins at 13% to 16%. When you take a look at the needs in the marketplace and the opportunity for this total enterprise to operate at its full potential.

    所以我無法對 2027 年發表評論,但我可以談談——比如說更長遠的未來,那就是我非常有信心,我們可以在 13% 到 16% 的長期成長率範圍內運作。當你審視市場需求以及整個企業充分發揮潛力的機會。

  • And actually, the elements in the marketplace, the actual pressures that have been discussed on this call, actually to respond to those effectively across the marketplace really speaks to what I think our overall business approach can achieve.

    事實上,市場中的各種因素,以及我們在這次電話會議上討論的實際壓力,如何有效地應對整個市場中的這些因素,真正體現了我認為我們的整體業務方法能夠取得的成就。

  • And when you think about, just solid organic growth and retention again in the margins that we have been talking about. The enormous potential of AI driven productivity, which is already in line with an organization that is driven towards productivity and scale.

    仔細想想,我們一直在討論的那些穩健的有機成長和留存率,在利潤空間中再次發揮作用。人工智慧驅動生產力的巨大潛力,與以生產力和規模為導向的組織的目標不謀而合。

  • Innovation and approaches that kind of serve the broader healthcare marketplace, kind of AI as applied to healthcare in a practical way as a platform to really energize Optum Insights business agenda, the need and emergence for value-based care. You combine that with thoughtful capital stewardship, and then, continued measured, thoughtful expansion of into the value-added markets. That's why I think that the long-term growth rate for this enterprise.

    創新和方法服務於更廣泛的醫療保健市場,人工智慧以務實的方式應用於醫療保健,作為一個平台真正激發 Optum Insights 的業務議程,滿足基於價值的醫療保健的需求和興起。將此與深思熟慮的資本管理相結合,然後繼續穩步、深思熟慮地拓展到增值市場。這就是我認為這家企業長期成長率的原因。

  • And, in responding to the margins or the pressures in the marketplace, has actually never been better. But we have to play to full potential, and we have to execute, and that really is what we're about. But we have an amazing set of resources to respond to the needs of the marketplace, and that's why I think the long-term growth for this enterprise is kind of more compelling than ever.

    而且,在應對市場波動或壓力方面,公司的表現實際上從未如此出色。但我們必須發揮出全部潛力,必須執行到位,這才是我們真正的目標。但我們擁有一系列強大的資源來應對市場需求,因此我認為這家企業的長期成長比以往任何時候都更具吸引力。

  • AJ Rice - Analyst

    AJ Rice - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Next question, please.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ann Hynes, Mizuho Securities.

    安海恩斯,瑞穗證券。

  • Ann Hynes - Analyst

    Ann Hynes - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. In your prepared remarks, you talked about your trend expectations for 2026 of 10%. Can you tell us what that is, Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial, and maybe how 2025 ended and what was different versus your expectations? Thanks.

    您好,早安。在您事先準備好的演講稿中,您談到了您對 2026 年趨勢的預期為 10%。您能告訴我們這分別是什麼嗎?是聯邦醫療保險(Medicare)、醫療補助(Medicaid)還是商業保險? 2025 年的結束情況如何?與您的預期相比有哪些不同?謝謝。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Tim?

    提姆?

  • Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

    Timothy Noel - Chief Executive Officer - UnitedHealthcare

  • Yeah, thanks, Ann for the question. So you're correct, the 10% is a number that reflects our utilization assumptions inside of Medicare. 2025, closed out around 7.5%. Which is what we've kind of reset our expectation through the middle point of the year.

    好的,謝謝安的提問。所以你說得對,10%這個數字反映了我們對聯邦醫療保險(Medicare)使用率的假設。到2025年,最終結果約為7.5%。這也是我們在年中調整預期的方式。

  • So that really is playing out well at a high level in terms of historical care utilization patterns in line with our reset expectations. We have, historically or recently talked about the commercial trends, approaching 11%. I think that's probably still a good place to orientate to and due to some of the nuance in the Medicaid market, where it's not quite as instructive to give a point estimate there.

    因此,從歷史醫療利用模式來看,這在宏觀層面上確實進展順利,符合我們重新調整後的預期。從歷史或最近來看,我們一直在討論商業趨勢,接近 11%。我認為這可能仍然是一個不錯的參考點,而且由於醫療補助市場的一些細微差別,在那裡給出一個點估計值並不那麼具有指導意義。

  • But I think you can just think about the themes really being similar across all the businesses seeing elevated trend that elevated in the earlier part of 2025 remains at those elevated levels and our expectation is that will persist into 2026.

    但我認為,所有企業的主題其實都很相似,都呈現出上升趨勢,2025 年上半年的上升趨勢仍然保持在高位,我們預計這種情況將持續到 2026 年。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Tim. I think we have time for maybe just one more question or two, because we're going to try to wrap it up at 8. So next question, please.

    謝謝你,提姆。我想我們可能還有時間再問一兩個問題,因為我們打算在 8 點結束。那麼,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erin Wright, Morgan Stanley.

    艾琳·賴特,摩根士丹利。

  • Erin Wright - Analyst

    Erin Wright - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. So it seems like you're progressing according to plan with the Optum turn around, but has there been any surprises that have come out of some of the initiatives there, especially at Optum care. And just I think you're still saying that the long-term margin target 6% to 8% is still intact. I just want to confirm that.

    太好了,謝謝。看來你們在 Optum 的轉型方面正按計劃推進,但是,在 Optum Care 等一些舉措中,有沒有出現什麼意想不到的情況呢?我認為你仍然認為 6% 至 8% 的長期利潤率目標保持不變。我只是想確認一下。

  • And then just in light of the rate notice and policies is top of mind, how are you thinking about this administration's support of value-based care initiatives? And they integrated Optum offering and you mentioned just how important value-based care is to operate in this environment. So some context there would be helpful. Thanks.

    鑑於目前的費率通知和政策,您如何看待本屆政府對以價值為基礎的醫療保健措施的支持?他們整合了 Optum 的服務,你也提到了在這種環境下,以價值為基礎的醫療保健有多麼重要。所以提供一些背景資訊會很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, Kristen, do you want to kick it off?

    當然可以,克莉絲汀,你想先開始嗎?

  • Krista Nelson - CEO of UnitedHealthcare Community & State

    Krista Nelson - CEO of UnitedHealthcare Community & State

  • Yeah, absolutely, thanks, Erin, for the question. So, a couple of things you asked about just, our how we're progressing and if we've seen any surprises. No, I think as we've gone through the evaluation I described in the fourth quarter and as we've, started to look at performance in each business and as we've made some decisions to improve our footprint and our market portfolio. And getting some of that behind us, I actually feel better about our 2026 position and our foundation by which we will be building off of.

    是的,當然,謝謝你的提問,艾琳。所以,你問了一些問題,像是我們的進度以及是否遇到了什麼意外狀況。不,我認為,正如我在第四季度所描述的那樣,隨著我們開始審視每項業務的業績,並且我們做出了一些決定來改善我們的業務範圍和市場組合。在解決了一些問題之後,我對我們 2026 年的情況以及我們將要賴以發展的基礎感到更加安心了。

  • Your second question was on the 6% to 8% and if that's still intact, and the answer is yes, like I mentioned earlier, the examples I described in Houston, we have a number of examples like that, and I, where I described our mature value-based cohorts already performing inside that.

    你的第二個問題是關於 6% 到 8% 的比例是否仍然保持不變,答案是肯定的,就像我之前提到的,我在休斯頓描述的例子,我們有很多類似的例子,而且我還描述了我們成熟的基於價值的群體已經在這個範圍內表現良好。

  • Again, those are reasons to give us, confidence. That being said, we do have work to do, which is we've laid that out thoughtfully, and I think as, in terms of progression of earnings, we're looking at modest basis point improvement inside 2026 as investments take shape and as we overcome the last year of B28 with building stronger momentum in the back half of the year setting us up for 2027.

    再次強調,這些都是給我們信心的理由。話雖如此,我們確實還有很多工作要做,我們已經深思熟慮地制定了計劃。我認為,就獲利成長而言,隨著投資逐步落實,以及我們克服了 B28 的最後一年,並在下半年建立更強勁的成長勢頭,為 2027 年做好準備,我們預計 2026 年內盈利將略有改善。

  • And then, the last part of your question around just the support of value-based care, you know what we've got is a very unique integrated value-based care delivery system that continues to demonstrate value to patients served, higher quality outcomes, and a total cost of care, that is significantly better than all market alternatives.

    最後,關於您提出的關於價值醫療支援的問題,我們擁有一個非常獨特的、基於價值的綜合醫療服務體系,該體係不斷為患者帶來價值、更高的醫療品質和更優的醫療總成本,並且明顯優於所有市場替代方案。

  • And you know the system like I mentioned earlier is aligned around an aligned payment model which incentivizes preventive care and holistic care. And comparing that to a system that rewards for volume, it's just a system that we need more of, and I, we feel even stronger today about that need, and the greater possibilities for Optum health than we have before. So thanks for the question.

    正如我之前提到的,這個系統是圍繞著一種協調一致的支付模式而建立的,這種模式鼓勵預防性護理和整體護理。與獎勵數量至上的系統相比,我們更需要這樣的系統,而且我們今天更強烈地感受到這種需求,以及 Optum Health 比以往任何時候都擁有的更大潛力。謝謝你的提問。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Totally perfect and the pressure in the marketplace just actually makes value-based care more compelling. And the retention of patients to value-based care is very strong, so -- One last question, please.

    完全正確,市場壓力反而讓以價值為導向的醫療保健更具吸引力。而且病患對以價值為導向的醫療服務的留存率非常高,所以──最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jessica Tassan, Piper Sandler.

    傑西卡·塔桑,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Jessica Tassan - Analyst

    Jessica Tassan - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you so much for the question. So, what would you highlight for investors from the independent reviews of UNH business practices that you all published in December. And is there any way to draw confidence around UHC and Optum Health's ability to contend with risk adjustment reform from some of those reviews? Thank you.

    您好,非常感謝您的提問。那麼,對於投資人而言,你們在12月發布的關於UNH商業行為的獨立審查報告中,有哪些重點內容值得關注?從這些評論中,我們能否對 UHC 和 Optum Health 應對風險調整改革的能力產生信心?謝謝。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, I'll just offer broadly. They were actually very positive. They really did speak. They were more focused on the overall environments, the controls, the oversight, the governance, with respect to those areas of practice, and particularly in risk assessment.

    當然,我會大致介紹一下。他們的態度其實非常積極。他們真的交談了。他們更關注這些實踐領域的整體環境、控制、監督和治理,尤其是在風險評估方面。

  • And so, we were pleased with that and we are following that, with really our own independent review in terms of risk accuracy, Chris?

    所以,我們對此感到滿意,並且我們正在跟進,真正進行我們自己的獨立審查,以評估風險的準確性,克里斯?

  • Chris Zaetta - Chief Legal Officer

    Chris Zaetta - Chief Legal Officer

  • Yeah, I'll just follow-up to say that I think the reports really are focused on trying to advance trust and transparency in these areas. And in 2026 we are going to do at least three or four more of these reviews that'll be really focused on the metrics that come out of it.

    是的,我再補充一點,我認為這些報告確實著重於努力提升這些領域的信任度和透明度。2026 年,我們將至少再進行三到四次這樣的評估,並專注於評估結果所得出的指標。

  • While 2025 was really focused on the policies, procedures, compliance, oversight, all of which were strong and robust. 2026 will focus on risk assessment accuracy and metrics, clinical policy accuracy and pharmacy services.

    2025 年的重點是政策、流程、合規性和監管,這些方面都做得非常出色且健全。 2026 年的重點將放在風險評估的準確性和指標、臨床政策的準確性以及藥房服務。

  • Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Stephen Hemsley - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And we have reviewed these with the administration, so we are very much open and continuing this course, again, recognizing the long-term responsibility for trust and transparency in this. So I really appreciate the question, a good one to end with. It is really all we have time for now. What I would say is the palpable the momentum inside this organization is palpable.

    我們已經與政府部門討論過這些問題,所以我們非常開放,並將繼續推進這項工作,再次強調,我們認識到在這方面,信任和透明度至關重要,這是我們的長期責任。非常感謝你的提問,這是一個很好的結尾問題。我們現在真的只有時間做這些了。我想說的是,這個組織內部的發展動能是顯而易見的。

  • We still have work to do to continue to successfully build and progress over the next several months. And we are eager to get to it. But I'm very pleased with the performance and outlook that we have. Thank you for your time today.

    在接下來的幾個月裡,我們仍需繼續努力,才能繼續成功地建造和發展。我們迫不及待地想要開始這項工作。但我對我們目前的表現和前景非常滿意。感謝您今天抽出時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

    女士們、先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。