Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Ulta Beauty Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    您好,歡迎來到 Ulta Beauty 2018 年第三季度收益結果電話會議。(操作員說明)提醒一下,正在錄製此會議。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Laurel Lefebvre, Investor Relations, Vice President. Thank you. You may begin.

    現在我很高興向您介紹主持人,投資者關係副總裁 Laurel Lefebvre。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Laurel Lefebvre - VP of IR

    Laurel Lefebvre - VP of IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us for Ulta Beauty's Third Quarter 2018 Conference Call. Hosting our call are Mary Dillon, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Settersten, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us is Dave Kimbell, Chief Merchandising and Marketing Officer.

    下午好,感謝您加入我們的 Ulta Beauty 2018 年第三季度電話會議。主持我們電話會議的是首席執行官 Mary Dillon;和首席財務官 Scott Settersten。加入我們的還有首席營銷官 Dave Kimbell。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind you of the company's safe harbor language. The statements contained in this conference call which are not historical facts may be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual future results may differ materially from those projected in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, all of which are described in the company's filings with the SEC.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您公司的安全港語言。本次電話會議中包含的非歷史事實的陳述可被視為構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。由於存在許多風險和不確定性,實際的未來結果可能與此類聲明中預測的結果存在重大差異,所有這些都在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中有所描述。

  • We make references during this call to non-GAAP earnings adjusted for the impact of the lower tax rate and onetime bonuses.

    我們在本次電話會議中參考了根據較低稅率和一次性獎金的影響調整的非 GAAP 收益。

  • During the Q&A session, we respectfully request that you ask one question only, please, to allow us to have time to respond to as many of you as possible during the hour scheduled for this call.

    在問答環節中,我們恭敬地請求您只問一個問題,以便我們有時間在本次電話會議的預定時間內回复盡可能多的人。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Mary.

    我現在將電話轉給瑪麗。

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Laurel, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝你,勞雷爾,大家下午好。

  • Ulta Beauty's strong performance in the third quarter reflects continued market share gains across all major categories, acceleration in our overall comp, driven by healthy traffic, excellent new store productivity and robust e-commerce growth.

    Ulta Beauty 在第三季度的強勁表現反映了所有主要類別的市場份額持續增長、我們整體競爭的加速,這得益於健康的流量、出色的新店生產力和強勁的電子商務增長。

  • To summarize the headlines. Total sales increased 16.2%. We delivered 7.8% comp sales growth on top of 10.3% comps in the third quarter of 2017. Diluted earnings per share of $2.18 grew 28%.

    總結一下頭條新聞。總銷售額增長了 16.2%。我們在 2017 年第三季度實現了 7.8% 的銷售額增長和 10.3% 的銷售額增長。每股攤薄收益為 2.18 美元,增長 28%。

  • We just shared a lot of news at our Analyst Day last month, and today, I'll reiterate some of the information we discussed about each of our strategic imperatives, which position us to deliver industry-leading financial results.

    我們剛剛在上個月的分析師日分享了很多新聞,今天,我將重申我們討論過的關於我們每項戰略要求的一些信息,這些信息使我們能夠提供行業領先的財務業績。

  • I'll begin with our effort to drive loyalty and to take our brand to the next level. We grew our Ultamate Rewards loyalty program to 30.6 million active members at the end of the third quarter, a 15.3% year-over-year increase. Loyalty member sales now represent more than 95% of our total revenues. We continue to benefit from the high engagement of our platinum- and diamond-level guests, garnering more than 40% share of wallet from these 2 tiers combined. These guests are over 3x more likely than our average guests to be omnichannel shoppers and take advantage of our services offering. They also have extremely high retention levels at more than 96%.

    我將從我們努力提高忠誠度並將我們的品牌提升到一個新的水平開始。截至第三季度末,我們的 Ultamate Rewards 忠誠度計劃增加到 3060 萬活躍會員,同比增長 15.3%。忠誠會員的銷售額現在占我們總收入的 95% 以上。我們繼續受益於白金級和鑽石級客人的高度參與,從這兩個級別加起來獲得了超過 40% 的錢包份額。這些客人成為全渠道購物者並利用我們提供的服務的可能性是我們普通客人的 3 倍以上。它們還具有超過 96% 的極高保留水平。

  • Going forward, we expect to increase our focus in driving higher sales per member, and personalization is the next major tool for growing share of wallet. Our vision is to make every guest touch point personalized and relevant, building tools and capabilities to develop a closer connection to our guests so they feel even deeper loyalty to the Ulta Beauty brand. We're just in the early innings of personalization, and we're building expertise, both internally and through acquisitions to bolster our capabilities in this area. More on this topic in a bit.

    展望未來,我們希望更加關注推動每位會員的銷售額,而個性化是增加錢包份額的下一個主要工具。我們的願景是讓每個客人的接觸點都個性化和相關,構建工具和功能來與我們的客人建立更緊密的聯繫,讓他們對 Ulta Beauty 品牌產生更深的忠誠度。我們正處於個性化的早期階段,我們正在通過內部和收購來積累專業知識,以增強我們在這一領域的能力。有關此主題的更多信息。

  • We also continue to grow our credit card portfolio and see a sustained lift in sales for our guests who hold the Ulta Beauty credit card. Sales of gift cards grew 35% in the quarter, driven by expanding distribution in other retailers this year, as well as strong growth in our own stores. We continue to grow awareness of the Ulta Beauty brand, now reaching all-time highs at 55% for unaided and 92% for aided awareness for the quarter. These milestones are supported by significant improvement on important brand attributes such as being considered exciting, fun, inspiring, experts in beauty and on trend.

    我們還繼續擴大我們的信用卡組合,並看到持有 Ulta Beauty 信用卡的客人的銷售額持續增長。禮品卡銷售額在本季度增長了 35%,這得益於今年其他零售商的分銷擴張以及我們自己商店的強勁增長。我們繼續提高 Ulta Beauty 品牌的知名度,本季度的無輔助品牌知名度達到 55%,輔助品牌知名度達到 92%,創歷史新高。這些里程碑得到了重要品牌屬性的顯著改進的支持,例如被認為是令人興奮、有趣、鼓舞人心、美容專家和潮流專家。

  • Last quarter, we discussed the launch of our new brand's purpose, "The Possibilities are Beautiful." This is a new articulation of our brand platform, celebrating the emotional and inclusive power of possibilities at Ulta Beauty. We believe we've moved past the point of driving awareness of the concept of Ulta Beauty, All Things Beauty, All in One Place, to one of being able to create a true emotional connection with our current and prospective guests. This is how great brands create loyalty and drive growth over the long haul.

    上個季度,我們討論了推出新品牌的宗旨“The Possibilities are Beautiful”。這是我們品牌平台的新表述,慶祝 Ulta Beauty 的情感和包容性力量。我們相信,我們已經超越了推動 Ulta Beauty、All Things Beauty、All in One Place 概念的意識,轉而能夠與我們現有和潛在的客人建立真正的情感聯繫。這就是偉大品牌建立忠誠度並推動長期增長的方式。

  • To support the launch, we commissioned a consumer study to understand beauty standards and perceptions of beauty today in order to facilitate this important discussion. We brought this to life with the partnership with NBC Universal's platforms, including NBC, E! and Telemundo, which garnered millions of impressions and engagement with our brand.

    為了支持此次發布,我們委託進行了一項消費者研究,以了解當今的美容標準和對美的看法,以促進這一重要的討論。我們通過與 NBC Universal 平台(包括 NBC、E!和 Telemundo,它為我們的品牌贏得了數百萬的印象和參與。

  • As part of our efforts to connect more closely with the key consumer segments of millennials, Latinas, Gen Z and African Americans, we've launched specific efforts to drive awareness with each group. For example, we're partnering with Essence and Girls United to increase academic potential, confidence and leadership of young women aged 12 to 17, and leveraging partnerships with influencers and media partners that are most relevant to these consumer groups.

    作為我們與千禧一代、拉丁裔、Z 世代和非裔美國人等主要消費群體建立更緊密聯繫的努力的一部分,我們發起了具體的努力來提高每個群體的意識。例如,我們與 Essence 和 Girls United 合作,以提高 12 至 17 歲年輕女性的學術潛力、信心和領導力,並利用與這些消費者群體最相關的影響者和媒體合作夥伴的合作關係。

  • In addition to our new brand equity campaign that launched a few months ago, we began running new holiday commercials with the theme, Shine Brighter, in early November, focused on the Ulta Beauty as the destination for both glamming and gifting.

    除了我們幾個月前推出的新品牌資產活動外,我們還在 11 月初開始投放主題為 Shine Brighter 的新假日廣告,將 Ulta Beauty 作為迷人和送禮的目的地。

  • Let me turn now to an update on our merchandise assortment, focused on innovation, differentiation, exclusivity, relevancy and speed to market. During the third quarter, we benefited from double-digit comp growth in mass cosmetics, prestige skincare, fragrance, prestige boutique brands and sun care. Prestige cosmetics showed modest improvement in comp sales performance compared to the prior quarter, suggesting encouraging stabilization of our largest category.

    現在讓我談談我們商品分類的更新,重點是創新、差異化、排他性、相關性和上市速度。第三季度,我們受益於大眾化妝品、高端護膚品、香水、高端精品品牌和防曬產品的兩位數增長。與上一季度相比,高檔化妝品的銷售業績略有改善,這表明我們最大的類別令人鼓舞地穩定下來。

  • We positioned Ulta Beauty as the partner of choice for brands across the beauty spectrum, from classic brands to established indie brands to new and emerging brands, but we believe there's significant opportunity to grow with each of these groups in multiple expressions and formats. In fact, we've recently launched an emerging brands team focused on identifying new and [offering] digitally native brands. This team has developed customized processes to onboard and incubate smaller or emergent brands with partnerships with all areas of our business in order to ensure successful launches of these brands which are often not accustomed to a retail environment.

    我們將 Ulta Beauty 定位為整個美容領域品牌的首選合作夥伴,從經典品牌到成熟的獨立品牌再到新興品牌,但我們相信,與這些群體中的每一個以多種表達方式和形式共同成長的重要機會。事實上,我們最近成立了一個新興品牌團隊,專注於識別新的和 [提供] 數字本土品牌。該團隊開發了定制流程,通過與我們所有業務領域的合作夥伴關係來加入和孵化較小或新興品牌,以確保成功推出這些通常不習慣零售環境的品牌。

  • We're excited to be participating in the rapid rise of influencers' celebrity-driven brands. Kylie Cosmetics is off to a strong start, with 28 SKUs launched in-store on November 17 and a more curated assortment online. We also announced the introduction of 4 Kim Kardashian-West fragrances for holidays, which launched in-store only. Both brands have been very supportive of these launches with the series of social media posts by Kylie and Kim, who each have 120 million Instagram followers. Kylie also made a personal appearance at one of our Houston stores the weekend of the launch.

    我們很高興能夠參與影響者的名人驅動品牌的快速崛起。Kylie Cosmetics 開局良好,11 月 17 日在店內推出了 28 個 SKU,並在網上推出了更精心挑選的商品。我們還宣布推出 4 款 Kim Kardashian-West 假日香水,僅在店內推出。這兩個品牌都非常支持這些發布,Kylie 和 Kim 在社交媒體上發布了一系列帖子,他們各自擁有 1.2 億 Instagram 粉絲。發布週末,凱莉 (Kylie) 還親自現身我們休斯頓的一家門店。

  • Other examples of influencer-led brands are the launch of the Beauty Bakerie, Juvia's Place and the expansion of Morphe. Morphe is now in 10 feet with an elevated presentation at all stores, and we launched an exclusive collaboration on November 16 with James Charles, an influencer with over 10 million Instagram followers.

    影響者主導品牌的其他例子包括 Beauty Bakerie、Juvia's Place 的推出和 Morphe 的擴張。Morphe 現在以 10 英尺的高度在所有商店進行展示,我們於 11 月 16 日與 James Charles 展開了獨家合作,James Charles 是一位在 Instagram 上擁有超過 1000 萬粉絲的影響者。

  • Our holiday plans have been well executed by the teams with many exclusive products and kits, elevated gift with purchase offerings for fragrance and a strong Black Friday, Cyber Monday offer as well as our early December Beauty Blitz program. Combined with the new holiday television and radio creative and in-store marketing, we're confident that we have implemented a comprehensive merchandising and marketing plan to position Ulta Beauty as a compelling destination for holiday shopping.

    我們的團隊很好地執行了我們的假期計劃,提供了許多獨家產品和套裝、帶有香水購買產品的高級禮品和強大的黑色星期五、網絡星期一優惠以及我們 12 月初的 Beauty Blitz 計劃。結合新的假日電視和廣播創意以及店內營銷,我們相信我們已經實施了全面的營銷和營銷計劃,將 Ulta Beauty 定位為引人注目的假日購物目的地。

  • Now touching on our services business. Salon sales grew 10.7% and comped 3.5%, driven by average ticket increases and benefiting from increased traffic in our stores.

    現在談談我們的服務業務。沙龍銷售額增長 10.7%,同比增長 3.5%,這主要得益於平均票價的上漲以及我們商店客流量的增加。

  • To update you on the rollout of our service optimization program. Our new services model is now in over 30% of the chain. We continue to see encouraging results and will continue to roll it out to additional markets in early 2019. This program was built to attract and retain top stylists who provide exceptional services. The components of services optimization are: compensation designed to retain top talent; industry-leading internal training and education; simplified menus; transparent pricing; as well as dedicated field teams focused on business and technical training to support our 8,000 stylists.

    為您更新我們的服務優化計劃的推出。我們新的服務模式現在已經覆蓋了超過 30% 的連鎖店。我們繼續看到令人鼓舞的結果,並將在 2019 年初繼續將其推廣到更多市場。該計劃旨在吸引和留住提供卓越服務的頂級造型師。服務優化的組成部分是: 旨在留住頂尖人才的薪酬;行業領先的內部培訓和教育;簡化的菜單;透明定價;以及專注於業務和技術培訓的專門現場團隊,為我們的 8,000 名造型師提供支持。

  • We continue to roll out the Skin Bar at Ulta Beauty, and now has this format at 174 stores. We plan to have 188 stores with the Skin Bar by year-end, and 50 of them will be multi-branded, offering services with brand partners Dermalogica, Murad, Kate Somerville and Kiehl's. Early results are promising for increased product sales as well as guest satisfaction.

    我們繼續在 Ulta Beauty 推出 Skin Bar,現在 174 家門店採用這種形式。我們計劃在年底前擁有 188 家設有 Skin Bar 的商店,其中 50 家將是多品牌的,與品牌合作夥伴 Dermalogica、Murad、Kate Somerville 和 Kiehl's 一起提供服務。早期結果有望提高產品銷量和客人滿意度。

  • We're now testing a new salon appointment-booking tool, in partnership with technology startup, Spruce. We developed an enhanced tool for booking appointments for all services, including hair, skin, brows and makeup. The booking tool is faster and easier to use and elevates guests' engagement. We expect to roll the booking tool out through 2019, with further enhancements to the platform teed up for next year.

    我們現在正在與技術初創公司 Spruce 合作,測試一種新的沙龍預約工具。我們開發了一個增強的工具來預約所有服務,包括頭髮、皮膚、眉毛和化妝。預訂工具更快捷、更易於使用,並提高了客人的參與度。我們預計將在 2019 年推出預訂工具,並準備在明年進一步增強該平台。

  • And now let me turn to real estate. We opened 42 stores in the third quarter compared to 48 last year, and closed 3, ending the quarter with 1,163 stores.

    現在讓我談談房地產。我們在第三季度開設了 42 家門店,而去年同期為 48 家,關閉了 3 家,本季度末共有 1,163 家門店。

  • New stores continued to deliver sales ahead of expectations, and we recently updated our new store model to reflect the strength of the new store portfolio, with year 1 stores achieving sales of $3.5 million on average and ramping to $5 million by the fifth year of operation.

    新店的銷售額繼續超出預期,我們最近更新了新店模式以反映新店組合的實力,第一年店的平均銷售額達到 350 萬美元,到運營的第五年增加到 500 萬美元.

  • With increased confidence in the next several years of store growth, we've narrowed our U.S. store target range of 1,500 to 1,700 and will slightly moderate new store openings in the next few years, with plans to open 80 stores in 2019, 75 stores in 2020 and 70 stores in 2021. This moderation is planned in tandem with the greater focus on portfolio repositioning as a large number of store leases is coming up for renewal in the next several years.

    隨著對未來幾年門店增長的信心增強,我們將美國門店目標範圍縮小到 1,500 至 1,700 家,並將在未來幾年略微放緩新店開張,計劃 2019 年開店 80 家,2019 年開店 75 家。 2020 年和 2021 年 70 家門店。由於未來幾年將有大量商店租約續約,因此計劃進行這種調整,同時更加註重投資組合的重新定位。

  • Moving on to our e-commerce sales and our recent efforts to create an innovation ecosystem. Ulta.com sales grew 42.5% and represented nearly 11% of total company revenue. E-commerce contributed 340 basis points to the total company comp, driven by transaction growth. Total traffic growth rose close to 36%, with mobile traffic up 44%. We continue to see strong demand for our store-to-door or save-the-sale program, and we're now testing buy online, pick up in-store in 47 locations.

    繼續我們的電子商務銷售和我們最近為創建創新生態系統所做的努力。Ulta.com 的銷售額增長了 42.5%,占公司總收入的近 11%。在交易增長的推動下,電子商務為公司總收入貢獻了 340 個基點。總流量增長接近 36%,其中移動流量增長 44%。我們繼續看到對我們的店到門或保存銷售計劃的強勁需求,我們現在正在 47 個地點測試在線購買,店內提貨。

  • Now I'd like to recap some of the important announcements we made at our Analyst Day in November. We described how we're building an innovation ecosystem with a series of partnerships and acquisitions. We recently invested in a multiyear strategic partnership with Iterate, a technology solutions company and workflow platform. Iterate helps large companies harness the best digital innovations and allows us to tap into technology talents in Silicon Valley and Colorado as well as share knowledge across industries. Iterate tracks trends, provides research and curates technology partnership opportunities. And for Ulta Beauty, it enables rapid prototyping and gives us access to startups that would be most suited to our needs.

    現在我想回顧一下我們在 11 月份的分析師日發布的一些重要公告。我們描述了我們如何通過一系列合作夥伴關係和收購來構建創新生態系統。我們最近與技術解決方案和工作流平台公司 Iterate 建立了多年戰略合作夥伴關係。Iterate 幫助大公司利用最好的數字創新,讓我們能夠挖掘矽谷和科羅拉多州的技術人才,並跨行業分享知識。Iterate 跟踪趨勢、提供研究並策劃技術合作機會。對於 Ulta Beauty,它支持快速原型製作,讓我們能夠接觸到最適合我們需求的初創公司。

  • In addition to this important partnership, we're also accelerating innovation by building internal capabilities. For the first time in the company's history, we made acquisitions of 2 small tech startups, GlamST and QM Scientific, to support our digital experience roadmap and develop an innovation pipeline. We welcome these entrepreneur founders and their teams to the Ulta Beauty family. We're excited to work together with these teams to unlock personalization in a differentiated way.

    除了這一重要的合作夥伴關係之外,我們還通過構建內部能力來加速創新。在公司歷史上,我們首次收購了 2 家小型科技初創公司 GlamST 和 QM Scientific,以支持我們的數字體驗路線圖並開發創新渠道。我們歡迎這些企業家創始人和他們的團隊加入 Ulta Beauty 大家庭。我們很高興與這些團隊合作,以差異化的方式開啟個性化。

  • GlamST has been our partner for the past few years behind the development of GLAM LAB, our virtual try and experience in our mobile app. Bringing these capabilities in-house will allow us to move faster in developing our augmented reality offerings. They combine AR, AI and machine learning capabilities and focus on virtual makeover solutions, image processing, graphics and effects.

    在過去的幾年裡,GlamST 一直是我們的合作夥伴,支持 GLAM LAB 的開發,這是我們在移動應用程序中的虛擬嘗試和體驗。將這些能力引入內部將使我們能夠更快地開發增強現實產品。他們結合了 AR、AI 和機器學習功能,專注於虛擬改造解決方案、圖像處理、圖形和效果。

  • QM Scientific is an artificial intelligence startup, recognized as a disruptor in the retail space. Their capabilities include artificial intelligence, recommendations, computer vision, natural language processing and visual search.

    QM Scientific 是一家人工智能初創公司,被公認為零售領域的顛覆者。他們的能力包括人工智能、推薦、計算機視覺、自然語言處理和視覺搜索。

  • Both GlamST and QM Scientific bring technology leadership, guest experience focus, capabilities and the right cultural fit with Ulta Beauty. Connecting these strategic relationships and partnerships start to frame up our approach to digital innovation, an ecosystem where we rely on capable technology partners, work closely with Iterate as an innovation workflow partner, and as an extension of our Ulta Beauty team as well as invest in assets and bring in-house technologies and talents that are core to our future. We view this structure as an efficient way to accelerate our digital innovation capabilities on our path to deliver world-class digital experiences, including much greater personalization.

    GlamST 和 QM Scientific 都帶來了技術領先、客戶體驗重點、能力和與 Ulta Beauty 的正確文化契合。連接這些戰略關係和夥伴關係開始構建我們的數字創新方法,這是一個我們依賴有能力的技術合作夥伴的生態系統,與作為創新工作流程合作夥伴的 Iterate 密切合作,作為我們 Ulta Beauty 團隊的延伸,並投資於資產並帶來對我們未來至關重要的內部技術和人才。我們將這種結構視為一種有效的方式,可以在我們提供世界級數字體驗(包括更大程度的個性化)的道路上加速我們的數字創新能力。

  • And now turning to an update on our supply chain operations. Strong in-stock levels, coupled with good control of inventory per door growth were the highlights of our supply chain team's performance in the quarter. Our newest distribution center in Fresno is ramping quickly, now serving 173 stores and 21% of e-commerce orders. In concert with the continued ramp of our 3 newer buildings, we are reducing activity in our Phoenix DC in preparation for its closure next year.

    現在轉向我們供應鏈運營的最新情況。強勁的庫存水平,加上對每家門店庫存增長的良好控制,是我們供應鏈團隊在本季度業績的亮點。我們在弗雷斯諾最新的配送中心正在迅速擴張,現在為 173 家商店和 21% 的電子商務訂單提供服務。為了配合我們 3 座新建築的持續擴建,我們正在減少鳳凰城中心的活動,為明年關閉做準備。

  • We see a significant opportunity to improve working capital in the years ahead. As part of the efficiencies for growth cost optimization program, we're launching an SKU-rationalization project. We're also benefiting from better inventory visibility and markdown tools. Over time, we'll get the entire supply chain network on a common operating model as well as continue to drive end-to-end process improvements. As a result, we expect to see modest inventory turn improvement each year over the next several years, with the goal of 50 basis points of improvement over the next 5 years.

    我們看到了未來幾年改善營運資金的重要機會。作為增長成本優化計劃效率的一部分,我們正在啟動 SKU 合理化項目。我們還受益於更好的庫存可見性和降價工具。隨著時間的推移,我們將使整個供應鍊網絡採用通用的運營模式,並繼續推動端到端的流程改進。因此,我們預計未來幾年庫存周轉率每年都會適度改善,目標是在未來 5 年內改善 50 個基點。

  • So with that, I will turn it over to Scott to discuss in more detail the drivers of our third quarter financials and outlook for the fourth quarter and the full year.

    因此,我將把它交給斯科特,更詳細地討論我們第三季度財務的驅動因素以及第四季度和全年的前景。

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Thanks, Mary. Good afternoon, everyone. I will begin with the income statement.

    謝謝,瑪麗。大家下午好。我將從損益表開始。

  • Top line growth of 16.2% was driven by a 7.8% comp in strong new store productivity. The revenue recognition accounting standard adopted at the beginning of the year added $10.5 million of sales from the combined impact of income from our credit card program, gift card breakage as well as e-commerce revenue now being recognized upon shipment, offset by the value of points earnings in our loyalty program.

    16.2% 的收入增長是由強勁的新店生產力增長 7.8% 推動的。年初採用的收入確認會計準則增加了 1050 萬美元的銷售額,這是由於我們的信用卡計劃收入、禮品卡破損以及現在在發貨時確認的電子商務收入的綜合影響,被價值抵消在我們的忠誠度計劃中賺取積分。

  • As a reminder, our retail comparable sales growth is not impacted by the revenue recognition accounting change.

    提醒一下,我們的零售可比銷售額增長不受收入確認會計變更的影響。

  • Traffic strengthened compared to the prior quarter, with transactions driving the majority of the comp. Total company transactions increased 5.3%, and ticket increased 2.5%. The retail-only comp of 4.4% was balanced between traffic and ticket. Ticket growth was driven by increases in average selling price, with units per transaction flat. Including the salon comp of 3.5%, the combined retail and salon comp was 4.4%.

    與上一季度相比,流量有所增加,交易推動了大部分競爭。公司交易總額增長 5.3%,機票增長 2.5%。4.4% 的純零售收入在流量和門票之間取得了平衡。門票增長是由平均售價上漲推動的,每筆交易的單位數持平。包括 3.5% 的沙龍收入,零售和沙龍的合併收入為 4.4%。

  • Turning to gross profit. Margin was flat year-over-year. The new revenue recognition accounting standard added about 50 basis points to the gross profit line, so the underlying 50 basis points of deleverage were a bit more than we were forecasting going into the quarter. Some of the factors driving this deleverage were the same dynamics we've been experiencing all year, including the mix of e-commerce sales, the mix of lower-margin prestige brands, investments in our salon business and supply chain deleverage, driven by the Fresno distribution center opening as well as higher freight costs, which weighed on the P&L by about 10 to 15 basis points as we called out at our Analyst Day.

    轉向毛利。利潤率同比持平。新的收入確認會計準則將毛利潤線增加了約 50 個基點,因此去槓桿化的基礎 50 個基點比我們對本季度的預測要高一些。推動這種去槓桿化的一些因素與我們全年經歷的動態相同,包括電子商務銷售的組合、利潤率較低的知名品牌的組合、對我們沙龍業務的投資和供應鏈去槓桿化,由弗雷斯諾配送中心開業以及更高的運費成本,正如我們在分析師日所呼籲的那樣,這對損益造成了大約 10 到 15 個基點的壓力。

  • Overall, promotions were fairly flat year-over-year, with lower circulation of some of our print catalogs and newspaper inserts and 3 weeks of our postcard 20% offer this year compared to 4 weeks of the same offer last year, offset by increased digital marketing. The primary driver of the delta between the original plan and our actual results was the clearance of that, that began at the end of the second quarter and continued into the first several weeks of the third quarter. It took us longer than expected and we took deeper markdowns than expected to sell through the discontinued inventory to clean up our backrooms to get our stores ready for all the great new launches ahead of holiday.

    總體而言,促銷活動同比持平,我們的一些印刷目錄和報紙插頁以及明信片的 3 週 20% 優惠的發行量低於去年同期的 4 週,數字增加抵消了這一點營銷。原始計劃與我們的實際結果之間存在差異的主要驅動因素是從第二季度末開始並一直持續到第三季度前幾週的清除。我們花了比預期更長的時間,而且我們進行了比預期更深的降價促銷,以通過停產的庫存進行銷售,以清理我們的後台,讓我們的商店在假期前為所有偉大的新品發布做好準備。

  • While the clearance event did pressure margin rate more than planned, we're happy with the end result and are in great shape for Q4. The margin rate headwinds that I described were partially offset by planned leverage of rent and occupancy expenses.

    雖然清關事件的壓力裕度比計劃的要高,但我們對最終結果感到滿意,並且在第四季度處於良好狀態。我描述的保證金率逆風部分被計劃的租金和入住費用槓桿所抵消。

  • Moving on to SG&A. We deleveraged by 140 basis points, including 70 basis points of impact from the revenue recognition accounting standard. The remaining 70 basis points are due to deleverage of store payroll primarily related to the prestige brand expansion as well as deleverage of marketing expense. This was due to timing of advertising spend for our new campaign, and we anticipate marketing expense to be flat as a percentage of sales for the full year. These pressures were partly offset by slight leverage in corporate overhead.

    轉到 SG&A。我們去槓桿化了 140 個基點,其中包括來自收入確認會計準則的 70 個基點的影響。其餘 70 個基點是由於商店工資的去槓桿化,主要與知名品牌擴張以及營銷費用的去槓桿化有關。這是由於我們新活動的廣告支出時間安排所致,我們預計營銷費用佔全年銷售額的百分比將持平。這些壓力部分被公司管理費用的輕微槓桿所抵消。

  • Operating margin was 10.8% of sales and was down 130 basis points from last year's Q3 operating margin of 12.1%, with 20 basis points attributable to the revenue recognition accounting change. Diluted EPS grew 28% to $2.18, with about $0.02 of earnings due to a lower-than-expected tax rate related to equity compensation.

    營業利潤率為銷售額的 10.8%,比去年第三季度的 12.1% 的營業利潤率下降 130 個基點,其中 20 個基點歸因於收入確認會計變更。由於與股權補償相關的稅率低於預期,稀釋後每股收益增長 28% 至 2.18 美元,收益約為 0.02 美元。

  • Turning now to the balance sheet and cash flow. Total inventory grew 10% and was flat on a per-store basis, well below comparable sales growth, as we continue to benefit from improved inventory systems and processes as well as the clearance event that began at the end of the second quarter and ran through the first few weeks early in the third quarter.

    現在轉向資產負債表和現金流量。總庫存增長 10%,每家門店持平,遠低於可比銷售額增長,因為我們繼續受益於改進的庫存系統和流程,以及從第二季度末開始一直持續到現在的清倉活動第三季度初期的前幾週。

  • Capital expenditures were $115 million for the quarter, driven by new stores, investments in systems, prestige brand rollouts, merchandise fixtures and supply chain investments. We ended the third quarter with $296.9 million in cash. We repurchased 451,000 shares through our 10b5-1 program at a cost of $119 million during the third quarter. $283 million remained available on the $625 million authorization as of quarter end.

    本季度的資本支出為 1.15 億美元,受新店、系統投資、知名品牌推廣、商品固定裝置和供應鏈投資的推動。我們以 2.969 億美元的現金結束了第三季度。我們在第三季度以 1.19 億美元的成本通過 10b5-1 計劃回購了 451,000 股股票。截至季度末,6.25 億美元的授權仍有 2.83 億美元可用。

  • Turning now to guidance for the quarter and full year. For the fourth quarter, we expect sales to be in the range of $2.085 billion to $2.103 billion versus $1.938 billion last year. Recall that last year's fourth quarter included an extra week worth $108.8 million and about $0.14 of earnings.

    現在轉向本季度和全年的指導。對於第四季度,我們預計銷售額將在 20.85 億美元至 21.03 億美元之間,而去年同期為 19.38 億美元。回想一下,去年第四季度包括價值 1.088 億美元的額外一周和約 0.14 美元的收益。

  • We expect comparable sales to increase in the range of 7% to 8% versus 8.8% last year. Our comparable sales will compare weeks 40 through 52 this year with the same period last year. So the 53rd week drops out.

    我們預計可比銷售額將增長 7% 至 8%,而去年為 8.8%。我們的可比銷售額將今年第 40 周至第 52 週與去年同期進行比較。所以第 53 週退出。

  • E-commerce sales are expected to grow in the mid-30s percentage range compared to 60.4% last year or 50.4% on a comparable 13-week basis.

    與去年的 60.4% 或可比的 13 週基礎上的 50.4% 相比,電子商務銷售額預計將在 30 多歲左右的百分比範圍內增長。

  • We plan to open approximately 11 new stores in the fourth quarter compared to 16 in Q4 last year and remain on track to open 100 net new stores this year. Q4 preopening expense is expected to be slightly lower as a rate of sales compared to last year.

    我們計劃在第四季度開設約 11 家新店,而去年第四季度為 16 家,並有望在今年淨開設 100 家新店。與去年相比,第四季度開業前費用預計將略低於銷售額。

  • Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of a $3.50 to $3.55 versus $3.40 last year on a GAAP basis or $2.75 adjusted for a lower tax rate, the impact from the revaluation of deferred taxes and related onetime bonuses last year.

    根據公認會計原則,每股攤薄收益預計在 3.50 美元至 3.55 美元之間,而去年為 3.40 美元,或根據較低的稅率調整後的 2.75 美元,以及去年遞延稅和相關一次性獎金的重估影響。

  • Operating margin is planned to deleverage, including the roughly 20 basis points related to the revenue recognition accounting standard, consistent with the impact we've seen so far this year.

    營業利潤率計劃去槓桿化,包括與收入確認會計準則相關的大約 20 個基點,這與我們今年迄今為止看到的影響一致。

  • The tax rate for Q4 is expected to be 24%. This does not include any assumptions for the tax rate impact of share-based compensation accounting which is difficult to forecast.

    預計第四季度的稅率為 24%。這不包括任何難以預測的基於股份的薪酬會計對稅率影響的假設。

  • Our fully diluted share count is estimated at 60.3 million.

    我們完全攤薄後的股票數量估計為 6030 萬股。

  • For the full year, we are maintaining our outlook for comparable sales and earnings per share which we updated at our Analyst Day a month ago. We plan to open 100 new stores, all approximately 10,000 square feet. We'll complete 15 remodel and relocation projects. We expect to grow e-commerce approximately 40%. We anticipate top line growth in the low teens, including the impact of the 53rd week last year. Total company comps are expected to be in the 7% to 8% range. We expect to grow diluted earnings per share in the low 20s percentage range, including the extra week in 2017.

    對於全年,我們維持一個月前在分析師日更新的可比銷售額和每股收益展望。我們計劃開設 100 家新店,全部面積約為 10,000 平方英尺。我們將完成 15 個改造和搬遷項目。我們預計電子商務將增長約 40%。我們預計低青少年的收入增長,包括去年第 53 週的影響。公司總薪酬預計在 7% 至 8% 的範圍內。我們預計稀釋後每股收益將在 20% 左右的百分比範圍內增長,包括 2017 年的額外一周。

  • We anticipate capital expenditures of approximately $375 million. Depreciation is forecasted at approximately $290 million. We expect to repurchase shares in the $500 million range for the year, and the annual tax rate for the remainder of the year is expected to be 24%.

    我們預計資本支出約為 3.75 億美元。折舊預計約為 2.9 億美元。我們預計全年將回購 5 億美元的股票,預計今年剩餘時間的年稅率為 24%。

  • As you know, we provided a long-term outlook at our Analyst Day last month, targeting mid-to high-teens earnings per share growth, 5% to 7% comparable sales for the next 3 years, and modest margin improvement each year. We plan to provide specific annual guidance for 2019 on our Q4 call in March as we normally do.

    如您所知,我們在上個月的分析師日提供了長期展望,目標是每股收益增長中到十幾歲,未來 3 年可比銷售額增長 5% 到 7%,利潤率每年適度提高。我們計劃像往常一樣在 3 月份的第四季度電話會議上提供 2019 年的具體年度指導。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to our conference call host for Q&A.

    有了這個,我會把它交給我們的電話會議主持人進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question here is from Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo.

    (操作員說明)我們這裡的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Ike Boruchow。

  • Lauren Marie Frasch - Associate Analyst

    Lauren Marie Frasch - Associate Analyst

  • This is Lauren on for Ike. Scott, could you maybe provide a bit more color around Q3 gross margins? Maybe help us understand the dynamics between fixed cost and merchandise margin and how the clearance event played into that? Also anything that may have surprised you in the quarter and how that helps you think about Q4 gross margins as well.

    這是艾克的勞倫。斯科特,你能否提供更多關於第三季度毛利率的顏色?也許可以幫助我們了解固定成本和商品利潤率之間的動態關係,以及清倉事件如何發揮作用?還有任何可能讓您在本季度感到驚訝的事情,以及這如何幫助您考慮第四季度的毛利率。

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes, thanks for the question. I know this is a little complicated, so let's give you a couple of points of reference. So versus last year, what you guys may have been expecting or looking for in your models -- so benefits versus last year included lapping the hurricanes. Of course, we had to promote a lot last year to capture lost sales, right? We said I think it was about 100 basis points of comp of impact last year. And then stronger rent and occupancy leverage versus last year. So we're lapping over a number of what we'd call higher-cost stores, Manhattan and Michigan Avenue and a number of others that we installed last year. Those benefits were offset by salon optimization investments that we've been talking about all year. The Fresno DC, again, new in the second quarter. That's caused a bit of deleverage year-over-year. And then the mix things we've been talking about in the business, the prestige brand mix and then the e-commerce mix, all right? So that's versus last year. Versus our expectations, we called out transportation being 10 to 15 basis points at Analyst Day, so there's been some upward pressure there all year for us. On the sales mix side, Mary called out fragrance and mass doing really well in the third quarter. So again, fantastic market share gains, but those 2 categories do have slightly lower margins overall than the house. And then it was primarily we called out the clearance event. It was really the bigger surprise for us versus our plans. So like I said, we had to go longer and deeper to move those items out of the store. But it was the right thing for us to do, and we feel really good where we are prepared for holiday.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。我知道這有點複雜,所以讓我們給你幾個參考點。所以與去年相比,你們可能一直在期待或在你們的模型中尋找什麼——所以與去年相比的好處包括繞過颶風。當然,去年我們不得不進行大量促銷以彌補銷售損失,對吧?我們說我認為去年的影響大約是 100 個基點。然後租金和入住率比去年更高。因此,我們正在覆蓋一些我們稱之為成本較高的商店,曼哈頓和密歇根大道以及我們去年安裝的其他一些商店。這些好處被我們全年都在談論的沙龍優化投資所抵消。弗雷斯諾 DC 再次在第二季度推出。這導致了同比去槓桿化。然後是我們在業務中一直在談論的混合事物,聲望品牌組合,然後是電子商務組合,好嗎?這與去年相比。與我們的預期相反,我們在分析師日稱交通運輸為 10 到 15 個基點,因此我們全年都面臨一些上行壓力。在銷售組合方面,瑪麗稱香水和大眾在第三季度表現非常好。因此,市場份額再次獲得了驚人的增長,但這兩個類別的總體利潤率確實略低於自家品牌。然後主要是我們宣布了清關活動。與我們的計劃相比,這確實給我們帶來了更大的驚喜。所以就像我說的,我們必須走得更遠、更深入才能將這些物品移出商店。但這對我們來說是正確的事情,我們在為假期做準備的地方感覺非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • So one question and just a couple of parts. Scott, can you quantify to us how much more did to the extra clearance or the extending of the clearance hurt your gross margin? And I guess I would have presumed that by the time you gave your second quarter call, you had some idea of this at the time. And then I just want to reconcile this, Sephora called out a more promotional environment. You didn't really -- you didn't say that. I mean, it was all -- sounds like this clearance event. But just if you can talk about the posture of the industry and if it feels more competitive.

    一個問題,只有幾個部分。斯科特,您能否向我們量化額外許可或許可的延長對您的毛利率造成的影響有多大?而且我想我會假設在你給第二季度打電話的時候,你當時已經有了一些想法。然後我只是想調和這個,絲芙蘭調出一個更具促銷性的環境。你真的沒有——你沒有那樣說。我的意思是,這一切——聽起來就像這次清關活動。但只要你能談談這個行業的態勢,以及它是否感覺更具競爭力。

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes, so maybe I can start with the promotional environment. So again, we feel like it's relatively stable year-over-year as we look at things. So again, it seems like overall, there's a bit more buzz about things. And the competitive environment, this is a tough space. It always has been, and we expect it to continue to be. So as we're looking ahead now, specifically to the fourth quarter, we feel like we're in a pretty stable place overall. As far as the clearance event goes, not quantify it for you, but directionally, I would tell you it's primarily -- it's the biggest driver by far of the surprise versus where we thought we were headed for the third quarter. So we talk a lot about the boutique strategy and the remodeling efforts that have been underway here over the last 18 months really in an accelerated pace. So when we're updating those stores, one of the biggest changes is our fragrance fixtures. And we've really pared back the assortment there as we upgrade the fixturing and the presentation in the store. And it was -- there was a lot of excess fragrance that had built up in the system overall. And while we've been trying to, I'd say at the margins, kind of sell our way through that in clearance sections in our stores, it just got to the point where we thought we needed to be more aggressive and that's what we did. So we wanted -- it was playing its way through, and then in the third quarter, we just needed to put our foot on the accelerator to get it out of the stores. So again, overall, it was a little more expensive than we were hoping, but was the right tactic for the business.

    是的,所以也許我可以從促銷環境開始。因此,我們再次感覺它在我們看待事物時同比相對穩定。所以,總的來說,似乎有更多關於事情的嗡嗡聲。而競爭環境,這是一個艱難的空間。它一直都是,我們希望它會繼續如此。因此,當我們現在展望未來,特別是第四季度時,我們覺得我們總體上處於一個相當穩定的位置。就清關事件而言,不是為你量化它,而是方向性的,我會告訴你它主要是 - 它是迄今為止與我們認為我們將走向第三季度的驚喜相比最大的驅動因素。因此,我們談論了很多關於精品店戰略和過去 18 個月來這裡一直在加速進行的改造工作。因此,當我們更新這些商店時,最大的變化之一就是我們的香水裝置。當我們升級店內的固定裝置和陳列時,我們真的減少了那裡的分類。它是——整個系統中積累了很多多餘的香味。雖然我們一直在努力,我想說的是,在我們商店的清倉區通過這種方式銷售我們的方式,但它只是到了我們認為我們需要更具侵略性的地步,這就是我們所做的做過。所以我們想要——它正在發揮作用,然後在第三季度,我們只需要踩下加速器就可以讓它走出商店。因此,總的來說,這比我們希望的要貴一點,但對企業來說是正確的策略。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Joe Altobello。

  • Joseph Nicholas Altobello - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Nicholas Altobello - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So I guess my first question is on the comp guide for the fourth quarter, up 7% to 8%. It sounds like it's kind of consistent to what you saw in the third quarter. I'm curious, your base period gets easier by about 150 basis points. You've got the introduction of Kylie this quarter. So why would we see a comp acceleration sequentially quarter-over-quarter?

    所以我想我的第一個問題是關於第四季度的薪酬指南,增長了 7% 到 8%。這聽起來與您在第三季度看到的有點一致。我很好奇,你的基期變得更容易了大約 150 個基點。本季度您已經了解了 Kylie。那麼,為什麼我們會看到一個季度環比的競爭加速呢?

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean -- Joe, it's Mary. I would say that we guided the best we can with the information that we have. I feel really good about what we have in place for holiday, whether it's like -- you mentioned the brand launches off to a strong start, our holiday marketing, our exclusives, our gift with purchase, they're all -- we're lined up really well, I'd say, to be competitive and have a strong quarter, but really, this is just our best estimate at this point.

    是的。我的意思是——喬,是瑪麗。我想說的是,我們利用我們所掌握的信息盡我們所能地進行了指導。我對我們為假期準備的東西感覺非常好,無論是 - 你提到品牌推出有一個良好的開端,我們的假期營銷,我們的獨家產品,我們的購買禮物,它們都是 - 我們排列得非常好,我想說,具有競爭力並有一個強勁的季度,但實際上,這只是我們目前的最佳估計。

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • And I would just add, not to forget, fourth quarter is a different animal for us, right? This is a place where we compete with all the retail, not just the beauty competitors. So we go into the quarter, we think in a -- with prudent guidance, right, recognizing and feeling good about where our plan is, but just making sure that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves.

    我只想補充一點,不要忘記,第四季度對我們來說是一個不同的動物,對吧?這是我們與所有零售業競爭的地方,而不僅僅是美容競爭對手。所以我們進入這個季度,我們認為 - 在審慎的指導下,正確的,認識到我們的計劃在哪裡並感覺良好,但只是確保我們不會太超前。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Anthony Chukumba from Loop Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Anthony Chukumba。

  • Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - SVP

    Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - SVP

  • We talked a little bit about the fact that your unaided awareness and your aided awareness still continue to increase. Do you have any sense for what's been driving that? I mean, is that just increasing your store presence and some of the shifts that you've made in terms of your marketing? Is it the loyalty program? I'm just -- I guess I'm just wondering what you think is driving that and where do you expect those numbers to trend going forward?

    我們談到了一個事實,即你的獨立意識和你的輔助意識仍在繼續增加。你知道是什麼推動了它嗎?我的意思是,這是否只是增加了您的商店存在以及您在營銷方面所做的一些轉變?是忠誠度計劃嗎?我只是 - 我想我只是想知道你認為是什麼推動了這一點,你認為這些數字會在什麼地方發展?

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Sure, Anthony. And I won't say this is Mary because I bet you could guess this is Mary. But anyways, I'm going to start. I'll let -- ask Dave to add more color. I'll tell you, this is something that we've been at now for multiple years, right, just the opportunity to put the brand of Ulta Beauty on the map literally and figuratively. And that's driven by a whole lot of factors, and we've been measuring it. It's not even just about, do people know us, but is there a meaningful understanding of what we are about. And I do believe that this next level of creative that we've launched is going to deepen not just to people who know about Ulta Beauty, but do they understand what we stand for? But maybe you can add some color in terms of the tactics.

    當然,安東尼。我不會說這是瑪麗,因為我打賭你能猜到這是瑪麗。但無論如何,我要開始了。我會讓 - 讓 Dave 添加更多顏色。我會告訴你,這是我們多年來一直在做的事情,正確的,只是將 Ulta Beauty 品牌從字面上和比喻上放在地圖上的機會。這是由很多因素驅動的,我們一直在對其進行衡量。這甚至不僅僅是關於人們是否了解我們,而是對我們的意義是否有有意義的理解。而且我確實相信,我們推出的下一級創意不僅會深入了解 Ulta Beauty 的人,而且他們會理解我們的立場嗎?但也許你可以在戰術方面添加一些色彩。

  • David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

    David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

  • Yes, absolutely. We have, Anthony, dramatically adjusted our marketing approach, really revamped it in a significant way to make it more current and relevant and motivating to our consumers, and that's driven a much greater connection. Really, as we've done that over the last 3 years or so, we've seen this dramatic increase in awareness. So marketing, for sure, but you mentioned some of the other things. Certainly, we've been opening new stores, and that's been helpful as we've entered into some new markets. Our loyalty program, as we combine that to one program about 4 years ago, that gave us the opportunity market that and make that a deeper connection. And that helped us drive greater connection with our guests, but more word-of-mouth. Our assortment has improved dramatically over the last several years. So those things have come together. And you asked about what comes -- where we think it's going from here, we're really pleased with the growth we've had in awareness. It's just been a critical -- it was a critical opportunity, but we see more to come. We're one of the leading unaided awareness retailers, #2 in the market right now. We think we're on path to become the #1 unaided retailer in beauty. The campaign that Mary described in her comments is the next step of that to make a more purposeful effort to connect with our guests in a more meaningful way. And so far, we're off to a good start with that.

    是的,一點沒錯。安東尼,我們已經大幅調整了我們的營銷方式,真正地以重大方式對其進行了改造,使其更符合時事、更相關、更能激勵我們的消費者,這推動了更大的聯繫。真的,正如我們在過去 3 年左右所做的那樣,我們已經看到了這種意識的顯著提高。所以營銷,當然,但你提到了其他一些事情。當然,我們一直在開設新店,這對我們進入一些新市場很有幫助。我們的忠誠度計劃,因為我們在大約 4 年前將其與一個計劃相結合,這為我們提供了機會市場,並使其建立更深層次的聯繫。這幫助我們加強了與客人的聯繫,但口耳相傳。在過去幾年中,我們的產品種類有了顯著改善。所以這些事情走到了一起。你問到會發生什麼——我們認為它會從這裡發生什麼,我們對我們在意識方面的增長感到非常滿意。這只是一個關鍵——這是一個關鍵的機會,但我們看到更多。我們是領先的獨立意識零售商之一,目前在市場上排名第二。我們認為我們正在成為美容領域排名第一的獨立零售商。瑪麗在她的評論中描述的活動是下一步的行動,目的是更有目的地努力以更有意義的方式與我們的客人建立聯繫。到目前為止,我們有了一個良好的開端。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer & Co.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Rupesh Parikh。

  • Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So on the Kylie cosmetics launch, it sounds the launch so far is off to a strong start. So was just curious how it's trending versus your expectations and if there's any surprises in terms of the customers bringing into your stores?

    因此,在 Kylie 化妝品發布會上,聽起來到目前為止的發布會有了一個良好的開端。所以只是好奇它的趨勢與您的期望有何不同,以及在顧客進入您的商店方面是否有任何驚喜?

  • David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

    David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

  • Yes, great question. Yes, we'd say, first, it's early. It's been less than a month, just a couple of weeks, but we're really pleased with results. Certainly, it's generated a lot of excitement. It is -- our existing guests have responded very favorably to it. It also -- it's done a nice job driving in some new guests, in particular, younger and diverse consumers. So we're really pleased with the effort overall. Kylie and the Kylie Cosmetics team has done a really nice job helping communicate this launch, get their fans excited about it. So overall, we're pleased with it. I think as far as the assortment, we're seeing strength across the line. It's a relatively narrow assortment, but we've been really happy with the performance. We just launched an exclusive holiday kit, and that's been received very well. And that's available only at Ulta, not on kyliecosmetics.com. Our teams are working really hard to keep the stores replenished. We have anticipated through Q4 kind of being tighter around inventory through the quarter. So it's possible as we move into holidays that we'll sell out in some cases, but we're working hard to continue to replenish and evolve the assortment going forward. So overall pleased, but a long road ahead of us as well.

    是的,很好的問題。是的,我們會說,首先,現在還早。不到一個月,只有幾週,但我們對結果非常滿意。當然,它引起了很多興奮。它是——我們現有的客人對此反應非常好。它還 - 它在吸引一些新客人方面做得很好,特別是年輕和多樣化的消費者。所以我們對整體的努力感到非常滿意。Kylie 和 Kylie Cosmetics 團隊在幫助傳達此次發布方面做得非常出色,讓他們的粉絲興奮不已。總的來說,我們對此感到滿意。我認為就品種而言,我們看到了整個產品線的實力。這是一個相對狹窄的分類,但我們對性能非常滿意。我們剛剛推出了一款專屬假日套裝,反響很好。而且這只在 Ulta 有售,在 kyliecosmetics.com 上沒有。我們的團隊非常努力地工作以保持商店的補貨。我們預計整個第四季度的庫存會更加緊張。因此,隨著我們進入假期,在某些情況下我們可能會售罄,但我們正在努力繼續補充和發展未來的品種。總的來說很高興,但我們還有很長的路要走。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions from Oliver Chen from Cowen and Company.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Oliver Chen。

  • Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • The QM Scientific deal is great and awesome. We're curious about the AI-powered customer engagement in terms of how you see that manifesting across different opportunities within the ecosystem. And also, in the context of AI, how do you juxtapose that with the beauty enthusiast who often likes new products versus driving an optimized, personalized recommendation system? And would love your thoughts -- and the QM Scientific team has a lot of experience with robotics, and we're seeing a lot more retail robotics as well as conversational commerce. How do you see that manifesting in what you're building over time?

    QM Scientific 的交易非常棒。我們很好奇 AI 驅動的客戶參與,您如何看待它在生態系統中的不同機會中體現出來。而且,在 AI 的背景下,您如何將其與經常喜歡新產品的美容愛好者與推動優化的個性化推薦系統相提並論?並且會喜歡你的想法 - QM Scientific 團隊在機器人技術方面擁有豐富的經驗,我們看到更多的零售機器人技術以及對話式商務。隨著時間的推移,你如何看待你正在建造的東西?

  • David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

    David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

  • Yes, Oliver. Great question. We, too, we share your excitement about having QM join Ulta Beauty. We're just really optimistic about what that team has already brought and will be bringing us going forward. You hit some of the highlights, but I'd say, of the things that we're looking forward to drive with them. But I'd say overall, as Mary mentioned in her comments, this is first and foremost about personalization, leveraging their capabilities to understand our guest in a better way and manage our connection to them. The first phase with them is really getting them engaged and onboard, which they are. We've been doing that over the last month or so and getting them fully up to speed and connected to our business. As we look forward over 2019, I'd say it's a mix of some foundational elements that they're bringing, and say, helped us assess our capabilities. We'll be looking across kind of our personalization platform, our data foundation and make sure that, that's as strong as it can be. I shared some of that at the Analyst Day, and they're going to play a key role in strengthening our foundational capabilities. The first areas that we we're going to be tackling, things that we've already been doing, but we'll see -- we think we can move faster and in a bigger way around elements like recommendations, as you've mentioned, dynamic content, personalized homepage. Computer vision is a capability that they have that we see that integrating in as we get further in with them over the next several months. That allow us to have product and image recognition. They will also connect to our GlamST acquisition to integrate virtual try-on data with our personalization platform. So those are the big areas that we're focused on, and we see -- we're really -- we're off to a great start with them. The team is really strong, and we're really pleased to have them on board.

    是的,奧利弗。很好的問題。我們也和您一樣對 QM 加入 Ulta Beauty 感到興奮。我們真的對該團隊已經帶來的東西以及將帶領我們前進的東西感到非常樂觀。你擊中了一些亮點,但我想說的是,我們期待與他們一起推動的事情。但總的來說,正如瑪麗在她的評論中提到的,這首先是關於個性化,利用他們的能力以更好的方式了解我們的客人並管理我們與他們的聯繫。與他們合作的第一階段實際上是讓他們參與進來,他們就是這樣。在過去一個月左右的時間裡,我們一直在這樣做,讓他們完全跟上速度並與我們的業務建立聯繫。當我們展望 2019 年時,我想說這是他們帶來的一些基本要素的組合,並且可以說,幫助我們評估我們的能力。我們將審視我們的個性化平台、我們的數據基礎,並確保它盡可能強大。我在分析師日分享了其中的一些內容,他們將在加強我們的基礎能力方面發揮關鍵作用。我們將要解決的第一個領域,我們已經在做的事情,但我們會看到——我們認為我們可以更快、更廣泛地圍繞建議等元素採取行動,正如你提到的、動態內容、個性化主頁。計算機視覺是他們擁有的一種能力,隨著我們在接下來的幾個月中與他們的進一步接觸,我們看到了這種能力的整合。這使我們能夠識別產品和圖像。他們還將連接到我們收購的 GlamST,以將虛擬試穿數據與我們的個性化平台集成。所以這些是我們關注的大領域,我們看到——我們真的——我們有了一個很好的開端。這個團隊真的很強大,我們很高興能有他們加入。

  • Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay, just a follow-up. With the store of the future, what do you really envision in terms of making sure that you link a lot of the innovation you're conducting digitally and with AI into the shopping -- the physical experiential shopping experience? And as you use this incubation innovation lab to look at ideas, how should we think about how Ulta thinks about M&A versus organic innovation?

    好的,只是一個跟進。對於未來的商店,您真正設想的是什麼,以確保將您以數字方式和 AI 進行的大量創新與購物聯繫起來——物理體驗式購物體驗?當您使用這個孵化創新實驗室來研究創意時,我們應該如何思考 Ulta 如何看待併購與有機創新?

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Well, these are deep questions. I'll start, and just say a couple of things. Well, the store of the future, we talked a bit at the Analyst Day. It's early. And our thinking, we're not going to share a lot of the direction. I'd say, high level the notion of the ability to be very experiential and lead our guest where they are is going to be critical, we think, and important in the beauty category. We think Ulta Beauty will be able to do that, serve that need really well. But to your point -- and underpinning technology through everything we do. So these investments in these companies, we see as ways to drive a personalized experience across all touch points, and that would be an underpinning. I think, in the future, we would imagine not surprisingly, that there's less and less friction in the transaction happening in-store, right, more time -- less time tasking and checking out, and a lot more time spent consulting and just having fun with beauty. So we see them all as working together. And frankly, the place that we can play the best is to bring together ease and convenience with discovery and a true human experience that's both physical and emotional. And that -- and just kind of in a big picture ways how we think about our, not just store but experience in the future.

    嗯,這些都是很深的問題。我要開始了,只說幾件事。好吧,未來的商店,我們在分析師日談了一點。現在還早。而我們的想法,我們不會分享很多方向。我想說,我們認為,高水平的體驗能力和帶領我們的客人去他們所在的地方的能力的概念將是至關重要的,並且在美容類別中很重要。我們認為 Ulta Beauty 能夠做到這一點,很好地滿足這一需求。但就您的觀點而言——以及通過我們所做的一切來支持技術。因此,我們將對這些公司的這些投資視為在所有接觸點上推動個性化體驗的方式,這將是一個基礎。我認為,在未來,我們可以毫不奇怪地想像,店內交易中的摩擦越來越少,對,更多的時間——更少的時間分配和結賬,更多的時間花在諮詢和擁有上與美麗的樂趣。因此,我們將它們視為一起工作。坦率地說,我們最擅長的地方是將輕鬆和便利與發現以及真正的身體和情感體驗結合在一起。那——從宏觀上看,我們如何看待我們的,不僅是商店,還有未來的體驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Simeon Siegel from Nomura Instinet.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Simeon Siegel。

  • Simeon Avram Siegel - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

    Simeon Avram Siegel - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

  • Mary, sorry to belabor the clearance conversation, but just can you speak to why you think it happened? Just, was it internal buying, planning? Or was it more a function of the external environment? Just basically can you speak to your comfort around this not being a go-forward necessity? And then Scott, sorry if I missed it, what are the gross margins embedded in the Q4 guide that you guys gave?

    瑪麗,很抱歉對清關談話進行了冗長的討論,但你能說說你認為這件事發生的原因嗎?只是,是內部採購、計劃嗎?或者它更多是外部環境的作用?基本上,您能否就這不是前進的必需品說出您的安慰?然後斯科特,抱歉,如果我錯過了,你們給出的第四季度指南中嵌入的毛利率是多少?

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • So yes, on the third, I would say, just a combination of factors, but more about the fair number of remodels and expansions of brands that happened in the quarter and a lot of new brands coming in that just -- we make a call. Clearance is not something that's -- it's not like we never do this. This happens periodically. So in this instance, it was bigger, it was an opportunity, we thought, to really clear out inventory and get us set up for the holiday. It's not something that we expect to repeat at that scale in the fourth quarter for sure. But it's just one of those business calls that we made that we think were right for the business at the time.

    所以是的,第三個,我想說,只是多種因素的結合,但更多的是關於本季度發生的品牌重塑和擴張的相當數量,以及許多新品牌的加入——我們打電話.清關不是什麼——這不像我們從不這樣做。這會定期發生。所以在這種情況下,它更大,我們認為這是一個真正清理庫存並讓我們為假期做好準備的機會。我們肯定不會在第四季度以這種規模重複這種情況。但這只是我們認為適合當時業務的那些商業電話之一。

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes. And as far as margin for the fourth quarter, just a little bit of color on some of the levers there. So Fresno, less of a headwind in the fourth quarter as that building continues to scale up and, of course, higher volumes, overall. Rent and occupancy will -- lever will be stronger in the fourth quarter than it was in the third. Again, we had 42 new stores in the third quarter. We got half -- a dozen, I think, in the fourth quarter. So that will be better overall. We'll be lapping those stores again from last year that were in 2017, those higher-cost stores. So we'll see some nice benefits there. I mentioned earlier the promotional environment overall, we think, is pretty stable right now. So again, it's a competitive environment. Make no mistake about that, and holiday is more so than the rest of the year. So we're prepared for that, but that's baked into the plan. When you get down to the SG&A line, labor, so we'll see -- get leverage there, unlike earlier in the year. Again, you got higher volumes there that help with some of that. The mix assumptions are all baked in there now. Freight, we mentioned earlier today, that's in there. Although I will say there's been some upward surprises there as we've kind of marched through the course of the year. But again, that's not a major driver overall. So feel good about where we are and the plan we have in place for the rest of the year.

    是的。至於第四季度的利潤率,那裡的一些槓桿只有一點點顏色。因此,弗雷斯諾在第四季度的阻力較小,因為該建築繼續擴大規模,當然,總體而言,銷量也更高。第四季度的租金和入住率將比第三季度更強。同樣,我們在第三季度有 42 家新店。我們在第四季度得到了一半——我想是一打。這樣整體上會更好。從去年開始,我們將在 2017 年再次覆蓋那些成本較高的商店。所以我們會在那裡看到一些不錯的好處。我之前提到過,我們認為整體促銷環境目前非常穩定。所以,這又是一個競爭環境。毫無疑問,假期比一年中的其他時間更重要。所以我們為此做好了準備,但這已納入計劃。當你深入到 SG&A 線時,勞動力,所以我們會看到 - 與今年早些時候不同,在那裡獲得槓桿作用。同樣,你在那裡獲得了更高的銷量,這有助於其中的一些。混合假設現在都在那裡了。運費,我們今天早些時候提到過,就在那裡。儘管我要說的是,隨著我們在這一年中的進展,那裡出現了一些驚喜。但同樣,這並不是總體上的主要驅動因素。因此,對我們所處的位置以及我們為今年剩餘時間制定的計劃感到滿意。

  • Simeon Avram Siegel - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

    Simeon Avram Siegel - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

  • Great. And then just high level for a second. So congrats on the awareness, obviously, keeps getting better. Did you -- would you expect to accelerate the store productivity curve as that happens? I mean, I guess, as you open up new stores, should that ramp happen quicker?

    偉大的。然後只是高電平一秒鐘。所以恭喜你的意識,很明顯,它會變得越來越好。你有沒有 - 你會期望在這種情況下加速商店生產力曲線嗎?我的意思是,我猜,當你開設新店時,這種增長是否應該更快?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes, I mean we're keeping an eye on that. I mean, we did update our store model here at Analyst Day just a few weeks ago. So we are seeing stronger productivity there. And it's a mix of things, and Dave alluded to it earlier. Assortment's part of it, awareness is part of it, better guest experience in the store, the payroll investment we're making are a part of it. So again, it's kind of hard to break it down individual basis.

    是的,我的意思是我們正在關注這一點。我的意思是,就在幾週前,我們確實在分析師日更新了我們的商店模型。因此,我們在那裡看到了更高的生產力。這是多種因素的結合,戴夫之前提到過。分類是其中的一部分,意識是其中的一部分,更好的顧客體驗是其中的一部分,我們正在進行的工資投資也是其中的一部分。因此,再一次,很難將其分解為個人基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Steph Wissink from Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steph Wissink。

  • Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst

    Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst

  • I just have a follow-up question on your prior comment, Scott, on labor leverage. I'm wondering if you can break the deleverage you saw in Q3 in store payroll into the boutique and skin bar investments relative to wage rate pressure overall? It sounds like you're levering the fourth quarter. Does that imply that those boutiques and those skin bars hit a level of sales volume that allows you to lever there as well?

    斯科特,我對你之前關於勞動力槓桿的評論有一個後續問題。我想知道你是否可以將你在第三季度看到的商店工資的去槓桿化分解為相對於整體工資率壓力的精品店和皮膚酒吧投資?聽起來您正在利用第四季度。這是否意味著那些精品店和那些皮膚酒吧達到了一定的銷量水平,讓你也可以在那裡槓桿化?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes, I think big picture, that's the answer. I mean, as we install these fixtures throughout the course of the year, right, we're kind of building to a crescendo here. And so you get maximum benefit from that in the fourth quarter when you got much larger sales volumes overall. So again, I would just remind people when we're talking about payroll deleverage, it is largely around investments that we're making for the guest experience, which a lot revolves around these boutique brands that we're installing in our stores. So all good for the long term, exactly the thing -- the way we think we should be playing it.

    是的,我認為大局,這就是答案。我的意思是,當我們在整個一年中安裝這些固定裝置時,對的,我們正在這裡建造一個高潮。因此,當您的整體銷量大得多時,您會在第四季度從中獲得最大收益。因此,我再次提醒人們,當我們談論工資單去槓桿化時,這主要是圍繞我們為客戶體驗所做的投資,這在很大程度上圍繞著我們在商店中安裝的這些精品品牌。所以從長遠來看,一切都是好的,正是我們認為我們應該玩的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯托弗霍弗斯。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • Correct me if I'm wrong, but did you say e-commerce would grow in the mid-30s in the fourth quarter? So that would be about 100 basis points less on comp contribution. So you're expecting to -- the store to accelerate in the fourth quarter? And can you talk about your thoughts around that and how you think of the drivers of that are?

    如果我錯了請糾正我,但你是說電子商務會在第四季度的 30 年代中期增長嗎?因此,補償貢獻將減少約 100 個基點。所以你期望 - 商店在第四季度加速?你能談談你對此的想法以及你如何看待驅動因素嗎?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Yes, I guess we're trying to avoid a detailed breakdowns of the comp by business unit here. But yes, we did. So I can confirm, we did say mid-30s for e-commerce in the third quarter. So again, it's just natural to kind of assume some moderation in that, again, when you do the adjustment for the 53rd week last year as part of the math as well. So again, we're off, we feel good about the plan overall. We think the guidance is strong. We feel like the business is well positioned. And so we just want to be a little bit prudent with what we're forecasting for the public at this point in time because there's a long way to go between now and Christmas, right? It's the longest period, right? Start to finish, I think, 31 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. So we're just playing it wisely, we believe.

    是的,我想我們正在努力避免在這裡按業務部門詳細細分補償。但是,是的,我們做到了。所以我可以確認,我們確實說過第三季度電子商務的 30 多歲。因此,當您再次將去年第 53 週的調整作為數學的一部分時,再次假設有一些節制是很自然的。所以,我們再次出發,我們對整個計劃感覺良好。我們認為指導是強有力的。我們覺得這家公司的定位很好。所以我們只是想對我們在這個時間點對公眾的預測謹慎一點,因為從現在到聖誕節還有很長的路要走,對吧?這是最長的時間,對吧?從開始到結束,我想,感恩節和聖誕節之間有 31 天。所以我們只是在明智地發揮它,我們相信。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • Understood, understood. And then just 2 clean-up questions on the gross margin front, questions that we've been getting. So earlier this week, there was a coupon, some people thought it was an extra coupon. Just wanted to get your thoughts on that. And then in terms of 4Q, the clearance, which sounded like it lasted a few weeks into the fourth quarter, what sort of headwind are you expecting in 4Q gross margin around the clearance?

    明白了,明白了。然後是關於毛利率方面的 2 個清理問題,我們一直在提出的問題。所以本週早些時候,有一張優惠券,有些人認為這是一張額外的優惠券。只是想了解一下您的想法。然後就第四季度而言,清倉聽起來像是進入第四季度持續了幾週,您預計清倉前後的第四季度毛利率會有什麼樣的逆風?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Well, let me start there first to be clear. So that clearance event is behind us now. So that was, Mary mentioned as well, we would call pretty extraordinary. So I think it was some catch up for us, right, to get through that. And we accelerated it in the third quarter so that we could clear out the backroom so we didn't have to struggle with it in the fourth quarter. So that's kind of off the table. Again, there's always a bit of clearance floating through the margin line, right, but not to the extent of what we just saw over the last 2 quarters. And then as far as the coupon is concerned, again, I tried to do this earlier in the year to tell people not to try so hard trying to track individual coupons that hit their e-mail box, right, because there's a lot of factors that influence how many times do we ping you, what you do with your open rates and redemption rates and all those kinds of things. So again, I would just reassure investors that we're pragmatic in our approach. We're doing the best that we can to deliver the best overall result for the quarter, and that includes promotion levels.

    好吧,讓我先從那裡開始說清楚。所以清關活動現在已經過去了。所以,瑪麗也提到,我們稱之為非常非凡。所以我認為這對我們來說有點趕上了,對吧,要度過難關。我們在第三季度加速了它,這樣我們就可以清理後台,這樣我們就不必在第四季度與之抗爭。所以這有點不合時宜。同樣,邊緣線總是有一些間隙浮動,對,但沒有達到我們在過去兩個季度剛剛看到的程度。然後就優惠券而言,今年早些時候我嘗試這樣做是為了告訴人們不要太努力地試圖跟踪進入他們電子郵箱的個人優惠券,對吧,因為有很多因素這會影響我們對您進行 ping 操作的次數、您如何處理您的開放率和贖回率以及所有這些事情。因此,我再次向投資者保證,我們的方法是務實的。我們正在盡最大努力為本季度提供最好的整體結果,其中包括促銷級別。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Dana Telsey。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • As you think about this fourth quarter, and obviously, a lot of the discussions points on gross margin coming up, what about inventory levels as you're heading into the season? Flat per store? How do you see yourself positioned for the holiday with flat per store inventory levels?

    當你想到第四季度時,很明顯,很多關於毛利率的討論點即將到來,在你進入這個季節時庫存水平如何?每家商店持平?您如何看待自己在每個商店庫存水平持平的假期中的定位?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Well, we feel great about our inventory position. So again, we alluded to, Mary did in her comments about the tools and process improvements and things that we're doing. Part of that is just improved capabilities in our distribution centers, part of it is behind the scenes investments in tools for our merchants and support teams here at the home office to help us just manage inventories better overall. So taking out excess weeks of supply in our supply chain network and reinvesting a lot of that into our best-selling [schnooze,] the As and Bs and making sure we're always in-stock on the things that our guests are looking to us for. So again, overall, managing it. And we're guiding to, again, our long-term guidance, 50 basis points of inventory productivity improvement here over the next 5 years. So this is -- we've been promising and talking about this for a long time now, I know. But now, you're starting to see the fruits of our labor manifest themselves, and we're really happy about where we are and what we have in front of us.

    好吧,我們對我們的庫存狀況感覺很好。因此,我們再次提到,Mary 在她關於工具和流程改進以及我們正在做的事情的評論中做了。部分原因是我們配送中心的能力有所提高,部分原因是在幕後為我們的商家和支持團隊在總部投資工具,以幫助我們更好地整體管理庫存。因此,在我們的供應鍊網絡中抽出多餘的幾週供應,並將其中的大量資金重新投資到我們最暢銷的 [schnooze] As 和 Bs 上,並確保我們始終有客人想要的東西的庫存我們為了。所以,總的來說,管理它。我們再次指導我們的長期指導,即在未來 5 年內將庫存生產率提高 50 個基點。所以這就是——我知道,我們已經承諾並討論了很長時間了。但是現在,你開始看到我們的勞動成果顯現出來,我們對我們所處的位置和我們所擁有的感到非常高興。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Mark Altschwager from Robert W. Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Mark Altschwager。

  • Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

  • It's encouraging to hear that prestige cosmetics saw some sequential improvement, and obviously, you have Kylie coming in Q4. But bigger picture, can you talk about your outlook for category growth. In the past years, we've seen the acceleration in skincare but a deceleration in cosmetics. Just based on the trends in the innovation pipeline you see, do you think we're beginning to see an inflection back in favor of the cosmetic category?

    令人鼓舞的是,高檔化妝品出現了一些連續的改善,顯然,第四季度有 Kylie 來了。但從更大的角度來看,你能談談你對品類增長的展望嗎?在過去的幾年裡,我們看到了護膚品的加速發展,但化妝品的減速。僅根據您所看到的創新管道趨勢,您認為我們是否開始看到有利於化妝品類別的拐點?

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So this is a crystal ball moment, right? And Dave and I can tag team with (inaudible). What I would say in the prestige, we're encouraged as well that, that's an encouraging sign about stabilization of that side of the -- that part of the business. It's big. It's very important to us. But it really is sort of like a tale of different brands. There are some brands that had huge 2015 and '16s that are still struggling a bit with kind of matching that kind of growth and others that are seeing stellar growth. So in total, that sort of mutes, I guess, a little bit, but it's still a healthy segment. Use of cosmetics and innovation in all aspects of color is continuing to be huge out there, and of course, there's the channels that aren't -- the brands that aren't measured in our traditional channel. So there's a lot of growth and innovation for us to participate in that we feel good in. I feel good about what's happening with the other segments of the business with prestige skin, as you said, mass cosmetics, fragrance, all with double-digit comps for us. So anything you'd add to that, that I missed on that, Dave, (inaudible)?

    是的。所以這是一個水晶球時刻,對吧?戴夫和我可以用(聽不清)標記團隊。我要說的是,我們也感到鼓舞,這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象,表明業務的那一部分穩定下來。它很大。這對我們非常重要。但這確實有點像不同品牌的故事。有些品牌在 2015 年和 16 年代取得了巨大的成功,但仍在努力匹配這種增長,而其他品牌則看到了驚人的增長。所以總的來說,我猜,那種靜音,但它仍然是一個健康的部分。化妝品在色彩各個方面的使用和創新仍在繼續,當然,還有一些渠道不是——我們傳統渠道沒有衡量的品牌。因此,我們可以參與很多讓我們感覺良好的成長和創新。正如你所說,大眾化妝品、香水,以及所有為我們帶來兩位數收入的高端皮膚業務,我對其他業務的進展情況感到滿意。所以你要添加的任何東西,我錯過了,戴夫,(聽不清)?

  • David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

    David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

  • Just to reiterate. Yes, we really are optimistic about makeup. There certainly is a strengthening in skincare, but we feel that our consumers remain very engaged in makeup. All the demographic trends continue to be very positive. One of the -- that's one of the reasons, though, we've been focused on digitally native brands and expanding that part of our portfolio. So certainly, a brand like Kylie, but also Morphe and ColourPop, Juvia's Place, so a number of brands that we think will play a role. At the same time, continuing to drive growth on some of our big, established brands like Tarte and Benefit and Anastasia and L'Oreal and Maybelline on the mass side. So well-rounded, and we're positive about where -- the future of makeup.

    只是重申一下。是的,我們真的很看好化妝。護膚品肯定有所加強,但我們認為我們的消費者仍然非常熱衷於化妝。所有人口趨勢繼續非常積極。其中之一 - 這是原因之一,儘管如此,我們一直專注於數字原生品牌並擴展我們產品組合的這一部分。當然,像 Kylie 這樣的品牌,還有 Morphe 和 ColourPop,Juvia's Place,所以我們認為許多品牌都會發揮作用。與此同時,繼續推動我們一些知名大品牌的增長,例如 Tarte 和 Benefit 以及 Anastasia 和 L'Oreal 以及大眾方面的美寶蓮。如此全面,我們對化妝品的未來充滿信心。

  • Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

  • And just a quick follow-up, it looks like the transaction component to the equation did reaccelerate this quarter even if it gets a tougher compare. Were there any callouts there, drivers on the marketing side this quarter, and learnings you can leverage for the holiday quarter?

    只是快速跟進,看起來等式中的交易部分確實在本季度重新加速,即使它得到更嚴格的比較。本季度是否有任何標註、營銷方面的驅動因素以及您可以在假期季度利用的經驗教訓?

  • David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

    David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

  • I'd say, from a marketing, we were -- we felt really good about our marketing approach. Yes, we had some activity throughout the quarter as we made adjustments to make sure we were driving traffic and transactions. And so the mix, we felt, was -- ended up in a solid place. But certainly, as we continue to look forward in the fourth quarter and into 2019, driving traffic is obviously critical. And our new advertising campaign, we think, is front and center of doing that. And all the other changes that we're making, we think, will continue to drive strong growth across all aspects of the business.

    我想說,從營銷的角度來看,我們 - 我們對我們的營銷方法感覺非常好。是的,我們在整個季度都進行了一些活動,因為我們進行了調整以確保我們推動流量和交易。因此,我們認為,這種混合 - 最終處於穩固的位置。但可以肯定的是,隨著我們繼續展望第四季度和 2019 年,推動交通顯然至關重要。我們認為,我們新的廣告活動是這樣做的前沿和中心。我們認為,我們正在做出的所有其他改變將繼續推動業務各個方面的強勁增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next mission from Erinn Murphy from Piper Jaffray.

    我們的下一個任務來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Erinn Murphy。

  • Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • I was hoping you guys could talk a little bit more about the mass category and the performance during the quarter. And then how are you thinking about that as you go into '19. I know you're lapping your major reset this year. And then, I guess, Mary, if you think about the emerging brands team and just the opportunities that they can kind of now look through, is there more coming down the pipeline in mass or prestige?

    我希望你們能多談談大眾類別和本季度的表現。然後當你進入 19 年時你是怎麼想的。我知道您今年正在進行重大調整。然後,我想,瑪麗,如果你想想新興品牌團隊,以及他們現在可以看透的機會,是否會有更多的質量或聲望出現?

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Go ahead, Dave.

    來吧,戴夫。

  • David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

    David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

  • Yes. So on the mass side, we're very pleased with the results this year, and we're really optimistic about the future. We'll share more as we get into it, but we're going to continue to expand and grow brands that have been doing well for us. So there's still opportunity to make them bigger parts of our portfolio. There's some core foundational brands, including Ulta Beauty Collection, but also L'Oreal and Maybelline and some of the bigger established brands that have been doing well, and we see -- we're positive and optimistic about the future there because of the innovation pipeline that's ahead of us. We'll continue to find emerging brands. I mean Juvia's Place is a recent example of a brand we launched early but off to good start, and that's in our mass cosmetics space. So as much success as we had this year, we have a large share opportunity. It's huge category, and we feel like we've got a lot of runway ahead of us to continue to try to drive growth in that space.

    是的。所以在大眾方面,我們對今年的結果非常滿意,我們對未來非常樂觀。隨著我們的深入,我們會分享更多,但我們將繼續擴大和發展那些為我們做得很好的品牌。因此,仍有機會讓它們成為我們投資組合中更大的一部分。有一些核心基礎品牌,包括 Ulta Beauty Collection,還有歐萊雅和美寶蓮以及一些規模較大的知名品牌,它們一直表現良好,我們看到——由於創新,我們對那裡的未來持積極樂觀的態度我們前面的管道。我們將繼續尋找新興品牌。我的意思是 Juvia's Place 是我們早期推出但開局良好的品牌的最新示例,它位於我們的大眾化妝品領域。因此,與我們今年取得的成功一樣,我們有很大的分享機會。這是一個巨大的類別,我們覺得我們前面還有很多跑道可以繼續努力推動該領域的增長。

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Yes. And I would just add, Erinn. I think that with the emerging brands, it's really across the board that we'll see innovation, right? So across categories and price points, not just mass.

    是的。我只想補充一點,Erinn。我認為對於新興品牌,我們會看到全面的創新,對吧?因此,跨類別和價格點,而不僅僅是大眾。

  • Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Erinn Elisabeth Murphy - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just the ticket growth was the lightest we've seen year to date. I'm just curious, is that just tied to the clearance event being extended? Or was there any other puts and takes for the ticket which came in a little bit lighter than we thought?

    好的。然後只是門票增長是我們今年迄今為止看到的最輕的。我只是好奇,這只是與延長清關活動有關嗎?或者是否有任何其他比我們想像的更輕的門票?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Actually, that's probably the primary driver there. So again, the clearance event wasn't much of a sales help overall for the quarter. So yes, that would be something that I would attribute a good piece of that, too, as well.

    實際上,這可能是那裡的主要驅動因素。因此,清倉活動對本季度的整體銷售幫助不大。所以是的,這也是我認為的一個很好的部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith from UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Michael Goldsmith。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Associate Director and Associate Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Associate Director and Associate Analyst

  • It looks like your e-commerce and your mobile traffic decelerated sequentially, but your e-commerce sales accelerated. So are you seeing an improvement in conversion online, and what would be driving that?

    看起來您的電子商務和移動流量連續減速,但您的電子商務銷售卻加速了。那麼,您是否看到在線轉化率有所提高,是什麼推動了這一點?

  • David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

    David C. Kimbell - Chief Merchandising & Marketing Officer

  • Yes. We -- well, a couple of things I'd say is we're continuing to be pleased with traffic. You talked about mobile, that's a big part of the business, a growing part of the business. And we're pleased all around with all aspects of that. The business traffic is strong and healthy. What we see in mobile is conversion in mobile is a little bit less than desktop because mobile is used often as an aid to shopping either in-store or to find stores. So there's other reasons to use mobile than maybe you're not using a desktop. So conversion shifts a little bit there, but when we look across [AOB] conversion, traffic, all pointing in the right direction and contributing in a meaningful way to our e-commerce business. Then we think we continue to grow across all aspects of that business going forward.

    是的。我們 - 好吧,我要說的幾件事是我們繼續對交通感到滿意。你談到了移動,這是業務的重要組成部分,業務的增長部分。我們對所有方面都很滿意。商業流量強大而健康。我們在移動設備上看到的是,移動設備的轉化率略低於桌面設備,因為移動設備經常被用作店內購物或尋找商店的輔助工具。因此,除了不使用台式機之外,還有其他使用移動設備的原因。因此,轉換在那裡發生了一點變化,但是當我們查看 [AOB] 轉換、流量時,所有這些都指向正確的方向,並以有意義的方式為我們的電子商務業務做出貢獻。然後我們認為我們將繼續在該業務的各個方面發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Brian Tunick from Royal Bank of Canada.

    我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Brian Tunick。

  • Brian Jay Tunick - MD and Analyst

    Brian Jay Tunick - MD and Analyst

  • I guess 2 questions. One, just curious, on the 20% off coupons, maybe can you talk -- are you still using them to acquire new guests? Or has your philosophy around the returns that you're seeing on those coupons changed? And then maybe secondly, Scott, on merchandise margin expectations we look at next year or so, maybe talk about any mix shift within prestige growing, versus mass growing again. Maybe just give us some sense of how you think merchandise margins will play out going forward.

    我猜2個問題。第一,只是好奇,關於 20% 的優惠券,也許你能談談——你還在用它們來吸引新客人嗎?或者您對這些優惠券所看到的回報的看法是否發生了變化?然後也許其次,斯科特,關於我們明年左右的商品利潤率預期,也許會談談聲望增長中的任何混合轉變,而不是再次大規模增長。也許只是讓我們了解您認為商品利潤率將如何發展。

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Sure. I'll start on the promotion question. I would reframe it. It's really not that any one tactic is about that. I'd say, if you step back, we have a wide variety of tools in our toolkit, I guess, I'd call it, to drive traffic, to drive share gains, to make our guests very excited and happy. And the 20% off is just actually one of many tools that we do. Everything is designed to do -- to get new guests and increase share of wallet for existing guests. And increasingly, I'm really proud about the fact that our teams have, over the past several quarters and years, really created a much more sophisticated set of tools that involve everything from the ability to invest in awareness to our loyalty program. And as we just talked about, the investment in these new capabilities that we have to really use that in a more personalized way. So it's all in a journey of how do you make sure that you're excited for the guests, you're competitive, you drive a profitable growth and driving market share gains. And there's -- you'll continue to see a whole array of ways that we do that.

    當然。我將從晉升問題開始。我會重新設計它。這真的不是任何一種策略都是關於這個的。我想說,如果你退後一步,我們的工具包中有各種各樣的工具,我想,我會稱之為,來增加流量,增加份額收益,讓我們的客人非常興奮和快樂。20% 的折扣實際上只是我們提供的眾多工具之一。一切都旨在做 - 吸引新客人並增加現有客人的錢包份額。而且,我越來越感到自豪的是,在過去的幾個季度和幾年中,我們的團隊確實創建了一套更複雜的工具,涉及從投資意識到我們的忠誠度計劃的所有方面。正如我們剛剛談到的,我們必須以更個性化的方式真正使用這些新功能的投資。因此,這一切都在您如何確保讓客人感到興奮、具有競爭力、推動盈利增長和市場份額增長的旅程中。還有——你會繼續看到我們這樣做的一系列方法。

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • And as far as gross margins are concerned, I mean, Brian, you've been following us a long time. It's a very dynamic category. I mean, Dave described, I mean, a mix of products that come in and out of our box, and now, online, to a great degree. Every year is kind of like a new story, right? What's the hot product, what's the hot SKU, what's the newness look like? So again, we're not expecting -- we never have, I guess, really to expand "merchandise margins" in any significant way in the foreseeable future. I mean, we just -- we are looking for market share gains, profitable market share gains over the long term and finding products that excite our guests that drive traffic in our stores and online, and that's what we're focused on delivering. And then we've got -- so we've talked about EFG during the course of the year a little bit and more explicitly at the Analyst Day. So that's a lever for us, again, a back around a lot of our core processes and other places in the business where we feel like we've got good opportunities to find savings to mitigate some of those headwinds if they present themselves. So again, trying to balance all elements of the business to deliver those -- that long-term algorithm that we laid out clearly at Analyst Day.

    就毛利率而言,我的意思是,布賴恩,你已經關注我們很長時間了。這是一個非常有活力的類別。我的意思是,Dave 描述了,我的意思是,我們的盒子裡進進出出的產品組合,現在在很大程度上是在線的。每一年都像是一個新故事,對吧?什麼是熱賣產品,什麼是熱賣SKU,新品是什麼樣的?因此,我們再次重申,我們並不期待——我想,在可預見的未來,我們從來沒有真正以任何重要的方式擴大“商品利潤率”。我的意思是,我們只是 - 我們正在尋找市場份額增長,長期盈利的市場份額增長,並尋找能夠激發我們的客人的產品,從而推動我們商店和網上的流量,這就是我們專注於提供的。然後我們得到了——所以我們在這一年中在分析師日更明確地討論了 EFG。因此,這對我們來說是一個槓桿,再次回到我們的許多核心流程和業務中的其他地方,我們覺得我們有很好的機會找到節省的機會,以減輕其中一些不利因素,如果它們出現的話。因此,再次嘗試平衡業務的所有元素以實現這些——我們在分析師日明確制定的長期算法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Michael Binetti from Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Michael Binetti。

  • Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

    Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

  • So I know you normally wouldn't comment on quarter-to-date trends, but given the -- both the excitement and the significant stock moves we've seen around the last few times you've made Kardashian announcements. Would it be safe to -- can we make an assumption that current trends are above the 7% to 8% guidance for the comp?

    所以我知道你通常不會對季度至今的趨勢發表評論,但考慮到——我們在過去幾次看到的興奮和重大的股票波動,你已經發布了卡戴珊的公告。是否安全——我們可以假設當前趨勢高於 7% 到 8% 的指導嗎?

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Yes, we're not going to comment on the current quarter. I feel like, as I said earlier, really good about what our teams have put in place from a merchant side, the product offerings, the marketing, our store teams, our distribution teams are performing at exceptional levels. So I think we're in good shape, but I'll leave it at that.

    是的,我們不會對當前季度發表評論。正如我之前所說,我覺得我們的團隊從商家方面、產品供應、營銷、我們的商店團隊、我們的分銷團隊的表現都非常出色。所以我認為我們的狀態很好,但我會保留它。

  • Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

    Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Is there -- and then just one more clean up on that. Is there anything so far to make you think the right e-comm growth rate is mid-30s in fourth quarter?

    好的。有沒有——然後再對此進行清理。到目前為止,有什麼讓您認為第四季度 30 多歲的電子商務增長率是正確的嗎?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • Our forecast, when we look at the business, when we lay out the days, when we look at what we're -- the events we're comping against and the newness that we have to drive our business, that's kind of -- to Mary's earlier point, we keep it current right up to the last minute here to make sure we get our best thinking when we put our guidance together.

    我們的預測,當我們審視業務時,當我們安排日子時,當我們審視我們是什麼時——我們正在應對的事件以及我們必須推動業務發展的新鮮事物,這有點——對於 Mary 之前的觀點,我們一直保持最新狀態直到最後一分鐘,以確保我們在將指南放在一起時得到最好的思考。

  • Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

    Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

  • All right. Fair enough. And Scott, as I think about the detailed guidance you gave at the Analyst Day and the algorithm for the next 3 years and I look at 2019 [year] model, you mentioned to us that some of the efficiency initiatives wouldn't be linear at the Analyst Day. One could assume that you'd be implying EPS growth rate then can maybe start at the low end of the mid- to high-teens range to start the 3-year plan? Is that the right way to orient ourselves as we think about the puts and takes of the multiyear plan?

    好的。很公平。斯科特,當我想到你在分析師日給出的詳細指導和未來 3 年的算法時,我看到了 2019 [年] 模型,你向我們提到一些效率舉措在分析師日。可以假設您暗示 EPS 增長率,然後可以從中到高十幾歲範圍的低端開始啟動 3 年計劃?當我們考慮多年計劃的投入和投入時,這是我們定位自己的正確方法嗎?

  • Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

    Scott M. Settersten - CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary

  • I appreciate your question, Michael, but we're not going to get into that today. So we're going to -- we'll lay out our plan for '19. Again, I think I explained at the Analyst Day that we're in the midst of our planning process here, there's still a long way for us to go and a lot of decisions to be made. So we'll share more with you on that in March.

    邁克爾,我很欣賞你的問題,但我們今天不打算討論這個問題。所以我們要——我們將製定 19 年的計劃。再一次,我想我在分析師日解釋過,我們正處於我們的規劃過程中,我們還有很長的路要走,還有很多決定需要做出。因此,我們將在 3 月份與您分享更多相關內容。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back to Mary Dillon for any closing comments.

    問答環節到此結束。我想將發言權轉回給 Mary Dillon,請她發表任何結束評論。

  • Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

    Mary N. Dillon - CEO & Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • I would just like to close by thanking our 40,000 associates for delivering another strong quarter as they're working hard to get the stores, website and DCs ready for the busy holiday season, all while continuing to elevate the guest experience.

    最後,我想感謝我們的 40,000 名員工帶來了另一個強勁的季度,因為他們正在努力讓商店、網站和 DC 為繁忙的假期做好準備,同時繼續提升客戶體驗。

  • So I look forward to speaking to all of you again, and happy holidays. Thank you.

    所以我期待著再次與大家交談,並祝大家節日快樂。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。再次感謝您的參與。