United Community Banks Inc (UCBIO) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United Community Banks' Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Hosting our call today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Lynn Harton; Chief Financial Officer, Jefferson Harralson; President and Chief Banking Officer, Rich Bradshaw; and Chief Risk Officer, Rob Edwards.

大家早上好，歡迎參加聯合社區銀行 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天主持我們電話會議的是董事長兼首席執行官 Lynn Harton；杰斐遜·哈拉爾森首席財務官；總裁兼首席銀行官 Rich Bradshaw；和首席風險官 Rob Edwards。

United's presentation today includes references to operating earnings, pretax, pre-credit earnings and other non-GAAP financial information. For these non-GAAP financial measures, United has provided a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP financial measure in the Financial Highlights section of the earnings release as well as at the end of the investor presentation. Both are included on the website at ucbi.com.

美聯航今天的演講包括對營業收入、稅前、貸前收入和其他非公認會計原則財務信息的引用。對於這些非 GAAP 財務指標，美聯航在收益發布的“財務摘要”部分以及投資者演示文稿的末尾提供了與相應 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。兩者都包含在 ucbi.com 的網站上。

Copies of the second quarter's earnings release and investor presentation were filed last night in Form 8-K with the SEC, and a replay of this call will be available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at ucbi.com.

第二季度的收益發布和投資者介紹的副本昨晚以 8-K 表格的形式提交給 SEC，該電話的重播將在公司網站 ucbi.com 的投資者關係部分提供。

Please be aware that during this call, forward-looking statements may be made by representatives of United. Any forward-looking statements should be considered in light of risks and uncertainties described on Pages 5 and 6 of the company's 2021 Form 10-K as well as other information provided by the company in its filings with the SEC and included on its website.

請注意，在本次電話會議期間，美聯航的代表可能會發表前瞻性陳述。任何前瞻性陳述均應根據公司 2021 年 10-K 表格第 5 頁和第 6 頁中描述的風險和不確定性以及公司在向 SEC 提交的文件中提供並包含在其網站上的其他信息來考慮。

At this time, I will turn the call over to Lynn Harton.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Lynn Harton。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Despite the concerns over inflation, Fed tightening and the direction of the economy, we had a solid quarter that demonstrates some of the strengths of the company and of our strategy.

儘管存在對通脹、美聯儲收緊政策和經濟方向的擔憂，但我們的季度表現穩健，展示了公司和我們戰略的一些優勢。

First, our net interest revenue grew at an annualized rate of 37%, driven primarily by a 22 basis point expansion in our margin. This expansion highlights the strength of our deposit base created by our service performance. We've included some historical deposit beta information in our deck this quarter to give you additional insight into this core advantage.

首先，我們的淨利息收入以 37% 的年增長率增長，主要是由於我們的利潤率增長了 22 個基點。這種擴張突顯了我們的服務表現所創造的存款基礎的實力。我們在本季度的套牌中包含了一些歷史存款測試版信息，讓您進一步了解這一核心優勢。

Due largely to our net interest revenue growth, our operating return on assets improved to 1.17%. Our return on tangible common increased to 14.2% and our pretax pre-provision income increased by $8 million, a 39% annualized growth rate.

主要由於我們的淨利息收入增長，我們的資產經營回報率提高到 1.17%。我們的有形普通股回報率增至 14.2%，稅前撥備收入增加 800 萬美元，年增長率為 39%。

Secondly, our credit performance continues to be outstanding, with net recoveries and improvements in both nonperforming assets and special mention credits. Our goal has always been to focus on balanced credit performance through the cycle, and we believe we're prepared if the economy does slip into recession.

其次，我們的信用表現繼續出色，不良資產和特別關注信用均實現了淨回收和改善。我們的目標一直是在整個週期內關注平衡的信貸表現，我們相信如果經濟確實陷入衰退，我們已經做好了準備。

While we're not seeing significant signs of consumer or business stress, we know that increasing interest rates always flush out excessive leverage from the economy. We believe the majority of that is outside the banking system but we are watching for any signs of weakness in the markets we serve.

雖然我們沒有看到消費者或企業壓力的顯著跡象，但我們知道利率上升總是會沖走經濟中的過度槓桿。我們認為其中大部分都在銀行系統之外，但我們正在關注我們所服務的市場是否有任何疲軟跡象。

Our loan growth was in our target range but distributed a bit differently than normally. Our C&I loans were essentially flat and our commercial real estate was down slightly.

我們的貸款增長在我們的目標範圍內，但分佈與正常情況略有不同。我們的工商業貸款基本持平，商業地產略有下降。

Equipment finance grew nicely but at a slightly slower pace than in the past. A large part of our growth was driven by residential mortgage where increasing fixed rates caused more of our customers to choose adjustable rates, which we have always held on balance sheet.

設備融資增長良好，但速度略低於過去。我們增長的很大一部分是由住宅抵押貸款推動的，其中固定利率的增加導致我們更多的客戶選擇可調利率，我們一直在資產負債表上持有。

These are all in market, United-originated, relationship-focused loans, which we're glad to hold. Given that we seem to be moving into more of a late-cycle economic environment, I'm pleased with our growth mix this quarter.

這些都是市場上的、聯合發起的、以關係為中心的貸款，我們很高興持有。鑑於我們似乎正在進入更多的周期後期經濟環境，我對本季度的增長組合感到滿意。

Finally, I continue to be very excited about our newest partner, Progress Bank. We're well into integration planning, and it's clear that we are a great cultural fit together and share a very similar approach to the market.

最後，我仍然對我們最新的合作夥伴 Progress Bank 感到非常興奮。我們很好地進行了整合規劃，很明顯我們在文化上非常契合，並且在市場上有著非常相似的方法。

David, I'm looking forward to having you and the rest of your team officially become part of United.

大衛，我期待著你和你團隊的其他成員正式成為曼聯的一員。

And now, Jefferson, how about going over more of the details for the quarter.

現在，杰斐遜，如何詳細了解本季度的更多細節。

Thank you, Lynn, and good morning to everyone. I'm going to start my comments on Page 8 and look at our markets a little bit, and we have one of the best footprints in banking. And we are excited that the pending progress merger at some of the fastest-growing markets in the Southeast, in the form of Huntsville, Birmingham and the Florida Panhandle as well as Tuscaloosa, and that our markets are growing population at 150% of the national average.

謝謝你，林恩，大家早上好。我將在第 8 頁開始我的評論，稍微看看我們的市場，我們擁有銀行業最好的足蹟之一。我們很高興東南部一些增長最快的市場（例如亨茨維爾、伯明翰和佛羅里達狹長地帶以及塔斯卡盧薩）即將取得進展合併，並且我們的市場人口增長速度佔全國的 150%平均。

On Page 9, we are proud of our core deposit franchise and we think it will serve us well as rates move higher. Deposits shrunk by 0.8% or $183 million in the quarter, which we believe is a natural evolution of higher rates and some deposits moving to their more natural home. Our deposits were still up $1.4 billion year-over-year, excluding the deals.

在第 9 頁，我們為我們的核心存款專營權感到自豪，我們認為隨著利率走高，它將為我們提供良好的服務。本季度存款減少了 0.8% 或 1.83 億美元，我們認為這是利率上升和一些存款轉移到更自然的地方的自然演變。不包括交易，我們的存款仍同比增長 14 億美元。

The combination of loan growth and our slight deposit shrinkage drove our loan-to-deposit ratio up to 70% from 68% last quarter. Our cost of deposits was up just 2 basis points in the quarter and helped drive our margin expansion that I will talk about on a later page.

貸款增長和我們的存款略有下降相結合，推動我們的貸存比從上一季度的 68% 上升到 70%。我們的存款成本在本季度僅上升了 2 個基點，幫助推動了我們的利潤率擴張，我將在後面討論。

On Page 10, we talk about our diversified loan portfolio and growth drivers for the quarter. Excluding PPP loan shrinkage, we grew loans at a 7% annualized pace. The growth was driven this quarter by residential mortgage, as Lynn mentioned, as there was a mix change towards floating rate loans in our mortgage business this quarter.

在第 10 頁，我們討論了本季度多元化的貸款組合和增長動力。剔除 PPP 貸款收縮，我們的貸款以 7% 的年化速度增長。正如林恩所說，本季度的增長是由住宅抵押貸款推動的，因為本季度我們的抵押貸款業務中浮動利率貸款發生了混合變化。

At the bottom of the page, we highlight that we have intentionally kept our portfolio very granular with low lending limits and very diversified, it's C&I heavy, it's light on CRE, all of which we believe translates into less risk over time.

在頁面底部，我們強調我們有意保持我們的投資組合非常精細，貸款限額低且非常多樣化，C&I 很重，CRE 很輕，我們認為隨著時間的推移，所有這些都會降低風險。

We had record loan originations this quarter at $1.5 billion and we ended up having high pay downs as well, and we are optimistic about loan growth for the rest of the year.

我們本季度的貸款發放達到創紀錄的 15 億美元，最終我們的還款額也很高，我們對今年剩餘時間的貸款增長持樂觀態度。

I am going to skip ahead to Page 12 and talk about our capital. Our ratio stayed relatively flat with a strong profitability and strong loan growth. We did see a slight decline in our TCE ratio as the strong profitability was offset by $91 million of higher AOCI related to our AFS securities as rates rose in the quarter, of course.

我將跳到第 12 頁，談談我們的資本。我們的比率保持相對平穩，盈利能力強勁，貸款增長強勁。我們確實看到我們的 TCE 比率略有下降，因為強勁的盈利能力被與我們的 AFS 證券相關的 AOCI 增加 9100 萬美元所抵消，因為本季度利率上升，當然。

Moving to Page 13. We discuss our net interest margin. We had 22 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter, 18 basis points of which came from the impact of higher rates, and 5 came from positive mix change in the form of lower cash on the balance sheet and the higher loan-to-deposit ratio that I mentioned earlier.

轉到第 13 頁。我們討論我們的淨息差。我們在本季度實現了 22 個基點的利潤率擴張，其中 18 個基點來自於利率上升的影響，5 個來自於資產負債表上現金減少和貸存比增加等形式的積極組合變化我之前提到的比例。

Moving to Page 14. While this rising rate cycle is certainly different from the last one, we did include a page this quarter on our experience last cycle. And we had a 24% deposit beta from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019, which we believe stands up well against peers. While we want to and will take care of our customers this cycle, we are optimistic that we will once again fare well compared to peers on this metric.

轉到第 14 頁。雖然這個利率上升週期肯定與上一個週期不同，但我們確實在本季度包含了一個關於我們上個週期經驗的頁面。從 2015 年第四季度到 2019 年第二季度，我們的存款 beta 為 24%，我們認為這與同行相比表現得很好。雖然我們希望並將在這個週期照顧我們的客戶，但我們樂觀地認為，與該指標上的同行相比，我們將再次表現良好。

Page 15, we talk about fee income. It was down from last quarter, our mortgage business was a driver of that decrease with rates rising and the refi business falling off. We had 3 main drivers in the quarter that drove the decrease.

第 15 頁，我們談論收費收入。與上一季度相比有所下降，我們的抵押貸款業務是導致利率上升和再融資業務下降的驅動因素。我們在本季度有 3 個主要驅動因素推動了下降。

One, we had a smaller MSR gain in Q2 compared to Q1. We had a $2.1 million MSR gain in Q2 compared to a $6.4 million gain last quarter and this is a $4.3 million difference. Also, despite being a seasonally stronger quarter, we did have a 21% decline in rate locks in Q2.

一，與第一季度相比，我們在第二季度的 MSR 增益較小。我們在第二季度獲得了 210 萬美元的 MSR 收益，而上一季度獲得了 640 萬美元的收益，相差 430 萬美元。此外，儘管是一個季節性較強的季度，但我們在第二季度的利率鎖定確實下降了 21%。

This decline in lock volume, also combined with a mix change towards floating rate loans, which means more loans were going to the balance sheet and less loans were being sold. So more of the economics of the lock volume in Q2, we will realize over time.

鎖定量的下降，也與浮動利率貸款的混合變化相結合，這意味著更多的貸款進入資產負債表，而出售的貸款減少。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將在第二季度實現更多鎖定量的經濟性。

Moving on to some of the other fee income categories. We also had $3.1 million in gains from SBA loan sales and just under $700,000 in Navitas loan sale gains in the quarter. With good loan demand, rates rising and the NIM expanding and a bit more uncertain pricing market, we plan to be a little more picky on selling loans this quarter, and I would expect this line item to be closer to $2 million in the third quarter.

繼續討論其他一些費用收入類別。本季度，我們還從 SBA 貸款銷售中獲得了 310 萬美元的收益，而 Navitas 貸款銷售收益則略低於 700,000 美元。隨著良好的貸款需求、利率上升和 NIM 擴大以及定價市場更加不確定，我們計劃在本季度對銷售貸款更加挑剔，我預計該項目在第三季度將接近 200 萬美元.

Moving on to Page 16 and expenses. Operating expenses were up $3.3 million in the quarter. The lion's share of the increase was driven by a $2.2 million merit increase and the quarter also included some core growth and some Reliant cost savings. On a year-over-year basis, our expense increase was mostly driven by the acquisitions.

轉到第 16 頁和費用。本季度的運營費用增加了 330 萬美元。增長的最大份額是由 220 萬美元的績效增長推動的，該季度還包括一些核心增長和一些 Reliant 成本節約。與去年同期相比，我們的費用增加主要是由收購推動的。

If we adjust for the acquisitions and the cost savings that we would get and have gotten, we estimate that our core expenses were up $3.5 million to $4 million over last year as we achieved the cost savings from both Aquesta and Reliant.

如果我們調整收購和我們將獲得和已經獲得的成本節約，我們估計我們的核心費用比去年增加了 350 萬美元至 400 萬美元，因為我們實現了 Aquesta 和 Reliant 的成本節約。

Also, if you look at it another way, if you take our operating efficiency ratio and then take it to another level and also exclude PPP fees and MSR marks, which I know a lot of analysts already do, you can really see the benefit of our deals on the efficiency ratio and profitability over the last year. This adjusted efficiency ratio, if you will, moved from nearly 58% in the year ago quarter to just under 54% this quarter, which is an improvement that we are proud of.

另外，如果換個角度看，如果你把我們的運營效率比率，再把它帶到另一個層次，並且不包括 PPP 費用和 MSR 標記，我知道很多分析師已經這樣做了，你真的可以看到我們在去年的效率比和盈利能力方面的交易。如果你願意的話，這個調整後的效率比從去年同期的近 58% 上升到本季度的略低於 54%，這是我們引以為豪的進步。

Moving to credit on Page 17. We had strong credit results in the quarter with 3 basis points of net recoveries and improved problem loans.

轉向信貸第 17 頁。我們在本季度取得了強勁的信貸業績，淨回收率為 3 個基點，問題貸款有所改善。

On Page 18, we give you some details on special mention, substandard accruing loans and nonperforming assets. All 3 categories were flat to slightly improved, and we feel good about where we are on credit.

在第 18 頁，我們為您詳細介紹了關注、應計次級貸款和不良資產。所有 3 個類別均持平或略有改善，我們對自己的信用狀況感到滿意。

On Page 19, despite generally improving credit trend and the fact that we had $1 million in net recoveries, we still did build our reserve for the second time in 2 quarters. Part of that reserve increase is due to our solid loan growth, but our CECL model also had a slightly worse economic outlook, which necessitated another $3 million in second quarter provision.

在第 19 頁，儘管信貸趨勢總體上有所改善，而且我們有 100 萬美元的淨回收，但我們仍然在兩個季度內第二次建立了儲備。準備金增加的部分原因是我們穩健的貸款增長，但我們的 CECL 模型的經濟前景也稍差，這需要在第二季度再撥備 300 萬美元。

The chart at the bottom shows our reserve in dollars and percentage since CECL inception. That shows a COVID-related buildup and release, and now we've had 2 quarters of reserve build in a row with this quarter in the Reliant deal and its related double dip last quarter.

底部的圖表顯示了我們自 CECL 成立以來的美元儲備和百分比。這顯示了與 COVID 相關的積累和釋放，現在我們在 Reliant 交易和上個季度相關的雙底下跌中，本季度連續兩個季度建立了儲備。

With that, I'll pass it back to Lynn.

有了這個，我會把它傳給林恩。

Thank you, Jefferson. And also thank you to the United teammates that continue to deliver outstanding performance.

謝謝你，杰斐遜。還要感謝繼續表現出色的曼聯隊友。

I'm working now preparing for my annual planning retreat and it always excites me to reflect, as I do that, on what a great organization you all have built and the opportunities that you have afforded us for future growth. So congratulations, and thank you.

我現在正在為我的年度計劃務虛會做準備，當我這樣做時，總是讓我興奮地反思你們所建立的一個多麼偉大的組織，以及你們為我們提供了未來發展的機會。那麼恭喜你，謝謝你。

And finally, I'd like to make a tribute to DeVan Ard, the Founder and CEO of Reliant Bank, who passed away earlier this month. I came to know DeVan about 1.5 years ago. He always did what he said he would, he was direct, forthright and truthful. He built a great team and a quality company. In short, DeVan was everything a good man and a great leader strives to be. I and many others miss you. Rest in Peace, DeVan.

最後，我想向本月早些時候去世的 Reliant Bank 創始人兼首席執行官 DeVan Ard 致敬。大約 1.5 年前，我認識了 DeVan。他總是言出必行，直率、直率、誠實。他建立了一個偉大的團隊和一個優質的公司。簡而言之，德文是一個好人和一個偉大的領導者努力成為的一切。我和其他許多人都想念你。安息吧，德文。

And now I'd like to open the floor for questions.

現在我想請大家提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Brad Milsaps of Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Brad Milsaps。

Maybe, Lynn, just maybe wanted to start with loan growth. Certainly, you guys hit your guidance. It seems like a lot of banks this quarter are really blowing away loan growth. So I wanted to kind of jump into that a little bit more. You mentioned paydowns. Just kind of curious how large those were maybe relative to what they typically are?

也許，林恩，也許只是想從貸款增長開始。當然，你們達到了你的指導。似乎本季度很多銀行真的在吹走貸款增長。所以我想再深入一點。你提到了還款。只是有點好奇這些相對於它們通常有多大？

And then secondly, as part of it, you sort of got the amount of loans you needed, you're conservative during this part of the cycle. How much of that did play into kind of the numbers that you ultimately put up this quarter?

其次，作為其中的一部分，您獲得了所需的貸款金額，在周期的這一部分您是保守的。其中有多少確實影響了你本季度最終提出的數字？

And then maybe finally, was there any kind of other runoff at Reliant to speak of that might have impacted that. I saw the tenancy book was down a bit. But just kind of curious if you have a little more color on some of the crosscurrents with loan growth this quarter.

然後也許最後，Reliant 是否有任何其他類型的徑流可以說可能會影響到這一點。我看到租約書有點落伍了。但是有點好奇，如果你對本季度貸款增長的一些逆流有更多的了解。

Perfect. Great question, Brad. I'm going to let Rich start with that and then Rob and I will join in as well.

完美的。好問題，布拉德。我會讓 Rich 開始，然後 Rob 和我也會加入。

You talked about on the payoffs. Was there anything that kind of jumped out and there was. We had 4 senior care deals payoff at about $60 million. We had another very large wealth management commercial client that jumps in and out of the market, and that was a $40 million payoff late in the quarter. So from that standpoint, that was a little larger than we normally see. It was our largest production quarter ever in our largest payoff quarter ever.

你談到了回報。有沒有那種跳出來的東西。我們有 4 筆高級護理交易，收益約為 6000 萬美元。我們有另一個非常大的財富管理商業客戶進進出出市場，這在本季度末獲得了 4000 萬美元的回報。所以從這個角度來看，這比我們通常看到的要大一點。這是我們有史以來最大的收益季度中最大的生產季度。

Going forward, I spent a lot of time with the state presidents in each of the geographies, understanding their markets. And as we're all thinking about the recession, if there is one, where are we in the cycle? Where are they in the cycle, most importantly? And really not seeing it. So I feel good about the growth. I think our mix will be a little different this next quarter. I think we'll still be around that 7% mark that will be more commercial, a little less mortgage.

展望未來，我花了很多時間與每個地區的州總統相處，了解他們的市場。當我們都在考慮衰退時，如果有衰退，我們在周期中的哪個位置？最重要的是，它們在周期中的哪個位置？而且真的沒有看到。所以我對成長感覺很好。我認為下個季度我們的組合會有所不同。我認為我們仍將保持在 7% 左右，這將更加商業化，減少抵押貸款。

In terms of Reliant, we typically see a runoff at the beginning of an acquisition. Also, we just went through conversion. And as you know, we're going through a leadership transition. So no concerns there at all. Feel great about the team. Feel great about the market.

就 Reliant 而言，我們通常會在收購開始時看到徑流。此外，我們剛剛進行了轉換。如您所知，我們正在經歷領導層交接。所以根本不用擔心。對團隊感覺很好。對市場感覺很好。

And most importantly, that leadership team, John Wilson; Mark Ryman, who is the commercial executive, they're feeling really good about the pipelines and the people that they have there. So that's how I'm kind of thinking about it. We're still in the best markets in the country, I believe.

最重要的是，那個領導團隊，約翰威爾遜； Mark Ryman 是商業主管，他們對管道和那裡的人員感覺非常好。所以我就是這麼想的。我相信，我們仍處於該國最好的市場。

Yes. Rob, do you have anything to add?

是的。羅布，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Well, I would just say in terms of -- I think your second question was about how much does our conservatism regarding the cycle play into it. And I would say we're continuing to be who we are. So our appetite hasn't changed. But -- and if there's anything that's changed, I would say it's been very moderate, but we're more cautious around speculation than we have been before just because of where we believe we are in the cycle.

好吧，我只想說 - 我認為你的第二個問題是關於我們對周期的保守主義在多大程度上發揮了作用。我會說我們將繼續做我們自己。所以我們的胃口沒有改變。但是 - 如果有任何改變，我會說它非常溫和，但我們對投機的態度比以前更加謹慎，因為我們相信我們處於週期中。

I would tell you. Well, I was going to say, we have seen -- the market has been a little more aggressive on the margin, and we have not been -- so to me, we have not tightened as much as we have seen the market in general, be a little more aggressive than we've seen in the past.

我會告訴你。好吧，我想說的是，我們已經看到 - 市場在邊際上更加激進，我們沒有 - 所以對我來說，我們並沒有像我們看到的市場一般收緊，比我們過去看到的更具侵略性。

Great. And as my follow-up, maybe to Jefferson. I was curious if you might have the net interest margin for the month of June. And then I think you've mentioned in the past maybe each 25 basis point increase being worth kind of 4 basis points, probably a little more in the beginning, maybe a little less than the end. But just kind of curious if you're thinking around those numbers had changed at all?

偉大的。作為我的後續行動，也許是杰斐遜。我很好奇你是否有 6 月份的淨息差。然後我想你在過去提到過，每增加 25 個基點可能價值 4 個基點，一開始可能多一點，也許比結束少一點。但是有點好奇，如果你在考慮這些數字是否發生了變化？

Yes. So our June margin, I'll give you the number, it's [3 25]. There's things that annualizing a single month. There's a lot of risk in that, I will say. But if you think about the margin going forward and think about that 5 basis points per 25 and some of the margin increase we expect to see just from the rates that have already happened as well, I think that next quarter, our margin will be up 20 to 25 basis points if you got a 75 basis point rate hike in July in the next couple of weeks like we think.

是的。所以我們的六月保證金，我會給你這個數字，它是[3 25]。有些事情是按月計算的。我會說，這裡面有很大的風險。但是，如果您考慮未來的利潤率並考慮每 25 個基點 5 個基點以及我們預計僅從已經發生的利率中看到的一些利潤率增長，我認為下個季度，我們的利潤率將會上升如果你在接下來的幾週內像我們認為的那樣在 7 月份加息 75 個基點，則加息 20 到 25 個基點。

Our next question today comes from Jennifer Demba of Truist.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Jennifer Demba。

Just curious, you said you had a 24% deposit beta during the last rate hike cycle, what are you guys assuming for this one?

只是好奇，你說你在上一個加息週期中有 24% 的存款貝塔，你們對此有何假設？

It's a great question. We're currently assuming a similar deposit beta this cycle versus the last one in our forecast. As you see in that forecast or is that on the one page, the new page in our deck, it starts off really low. The first 100 basis points was 8 basis points last time.

這是一個很好的問題。我們目前假設本週期與我們預測的上一個週期相似的存款貝塔。正如您在該預測中看到的那樣，或者在我們牌組中的新頁面的一頁上，它開始時非常低。前100個基點是上次8個基點。

This quarter, we were just 3, and then it starts moving up relatively quickly and then would go beyond -- went beyond that 24 for total rate hike. So a lot of it depends on how long this rate cycle goes. But for now, we are using 24% in our modeling.

本季度，我們只有 3 歲，然後它開始相對較快地上升，然後會超過 - 超過 24 歲的總加息。所以很大程度上取決於這個利率週期有多長。但目前，我們在建模中使用了 24%。

Okay. Great. And can you guys talk about what kind of -- are you seeing any, I guess, more -- you said you may be seeing a little bit more aggressive lending behavior in recent months. Can you give us a little more detail on that?

好的。偉大的。你們能談談是什麼樣的——我猜你們看到了更多——你說最近幾個月你可能會看到一些更激進的貸款行為。你能告訴我們更多細節嗎？

Jennifer, it's Rob. I would just say, I think other people are more comfortable with speculative scenarios than we have been traditionally and than we currently are. So there's a number of different products you have in lending. One example would be warehouses. There's a lot of people doing spec warehouses. And those worked out really good for the last 18 months. But the environment is likely to change.

詹妮弗，是羅伯。我只想說，我認為其他人比我們傳統上和現在更喜歡投機場景。因此，您有許多不同的貸款產品。一個例子是倉庫。有很多人在做規格倉庫。在過去的 18 個月裡，這些效果非常好。但環境可能會發生變化。

The announcement of Amazon that they're kind of out of the warehouse business was a little bit of reason to be cautious.

亞馬遜宣布他們退出倉庫業務是有點理由要謹慎。

Our next question is from Michael Rose of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Michael Rose。

I don't know if I missed this in the beginning, I was just getting on the -- I was on another call, but he's digging to the mortgage dynamics -- if I exclude MSR in both quarters, it looks like it was down pretty healthy. I know there's the lost timing and everything like that. Can you just walk us through some of the dynamics?

我不知道我一開始是否錯過了這個，我剛剛接聽 - 我正在接另一個電話，但他正在研究抵押貸款動態 - 如果我在兩個季度都排除 MSR，看起來它已經下降了很健康。我知道有失去的時機和類似的事情。你能告訴我們一些動態嗎？

And then obviously, there's inventory constraints in some of your markets. But on the flip side of that, I mean, rates have come in a little bit. You still have positive in migration. I'm just trying to get a better sense of what happened this quarter and then what the expectations might be for the next couple of quarters?

然後很明顯，你們的一些市場存在庫存限制。但另一方面，我的意思是，費率有所提高。你仍然有移民的積極性。我只是想更好地了解本季度發生了什麼，以及接下來幾個季度的預期是什麼？

It's a great question, Mike. I'll start with what happened this quarter, and I'll pass it to Rich on next quarter and how we're thinking about it or anything he might want to add.

這是一個很好的問題，邁克。我將從本季度發生的事情開始，我將在下個季度將其傳遞給 Rich，以及我們如何考慮它或他可能想要添加的任何內容。

So yes, we were down a lot in mortgage revenue this quarter. If you look at the rate lock volume, it was down just over 20%. And with the mix change towards floating rate loans, if you look at the lock volume of our held-to-maturity loans, that was down 44%. So the piece that we're generating a gain on sale on was down 44% quarter-to-quarter.

所以，是的，我們本季度的抵押貸款收入下降了很多。如果你看一下速率鎖定量，它下降了 20% 以上。隨著浮動利率貸款的組合變化，如果你看一下我們持有至到期貸款的鎖定量，它下降了 44%。因此，我們產生銷售收益的那件商品環比下降了 44%。

Now we have significantly more floating rate loans are going on to the balance sheet. We'll get that economics over time. But from a pure this quarter mortgage fee income number, that held to maturity rate lock volume is a main driver. Now I'll pass it over to Rich to talk about the business and the forecast.

現在我們有更多的浮動利率貸款進入資產負債表。隨著時間的推移，我們將獲得這種經濟性。但從本季度純按揭費收入數字來看，持有至到期利率鎖定量是主要驅動力。現在我將把它交給 Rich 來談談業務和預測。

Sure. In terms of expectations for Q3, we're expecting volume to be down another 15% from this quarter. And probably on the fee side, somewhere around the 20% mark lower as well.

當然。就第三季度的預期而言，我們預計銷量將比本季度再下降 15%。並且可能在費用方面，也降低了 20% 左右。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just circling back to the loan growth commentary. Obviously, very good production this quarter. A lot of moving pieces with Aquesta and Reliant, and not sure what the runoff looks like there, but it would make sense of the payoffs, particularly in the CRE space should slow as rates have risen. Not trying to pin you down for an exact outlook for the back half of the year, but this quarter's core loan growth of 6% to 7%. Is that what we should at least kind of contemplate as we move into the back half of the year, just given kind of some of the puts and takes?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是回到貸款增長評論。顯然，本季度的產量非常好。 Aquesta 和 Reliant 的許多移動作品，不確定那裡的徑流是什麼樣的，但它會帶來回報，特別是在 CRE 領域，隨著利率的上升，應該會放緩。不是試圖讓你確定下半年的確切前景，而是本季度的核心貸款增長 6% 至 7%。這是我們進入下半年時至少應該考慮的事情，只是給出了一些看跌期權嗎？

Yes, this is Rich. As I mentioned earlier, I think that number is a good way to think about it. I think they said that the mix will change a little bit with mortgage down a little bit more and a little bit more up on commercial.

是的，這就是里奇。正如我之前提到的，我認為這個數字是一個很好的思考方式。我認為他們說，隨著抵押貸款的下降一點點，商業化點的增加一點點，這種組合會發生一些變化。

One thing in there, a lot of the loan growth we got this quarter was late in the quarter. So our average loan growth was lower than our end-of-period loan growth. And so from an average loan growth standpoint for next quarter we're starting off at a nice spot given the strong end of quarter volume that we had.

有一件事，我們本季度獲得的許多貸款增長都在本季度末。因此，我們的平均貸款增長低於期末貸款增長。因此，從下個季度的平均貸款增長的角度來看，鑑於我們擁有的季度末強勁的交易量，我們的起點不錯。

And maybe just one final one for me. Just as we as you think about expenses, especially salaries were down a little bit Q-on-Q. Obviously, I understand the drivers there. But can you just give us an update on the hiring plans and the -- what's going on with some of the dislocation from some of the more recent acquisitions if that's presented some opportunities for not only revenue hires, but maybe also on the client side.

也許對我來說只有最後一個。就像我們在考慮費用時一樣，尤其是薪水，Q-on-Q 略有下降。顯然，我了解那裡的司機。但是，您能否向我們提供有關招聘計劃的最新信息以及 - 如果這不僅為收入招聘提供了一些機會，而且可能還為客戶提供了一些機會，那麼最近的一些收購中的一些錯位正在發生什麼。

Sure. This is Rich. Recruiting discussions are obviously going on throughout the footprint. We're currently talking in Nashville about the middle market position because we see that market as such a great opportunity. Also, there might be an opportunity for a CRE person there, and we may have found that person. And we're also looking for middle market in Florida as well. I will tell you that we're looking at a lift out right now that looks fairly promising.

當然。這是里奇。招聘討論顯然在整個足跡中進行。我們目前正在納什維爾談論中間市場地位，因為我們認為該市場是一個巨大的機會。此外，那裡可能有 CRE 人的機會，我們可能已經找到了那個人。我們也在尋找佛羅里達的中間市場。我會告訴你，我們現在正在尋找一個看起來很有希望的電梯。

Additionally, we just brought on Cory Boyte, as Head of Syndications and Corporate Banking for us. And we think we're of that size now and we can start taking on some of those larger strategic relationships, and he brings 21 years of experience out of Truist and BB&T.

此外，我們剛剛聘請了 Cory Boyte，擔任我們的銀團和企業銀行業務主管。我們認為我們現在已經達到了這樣的規模，我們可以開始承擔一些更大的戰略關係，他帶來了 Truist 和 BB&T 21 年的經驗。

And then lastly, we just brought on a leader in the franchise space, particularly for the larger multi-store owners, and this will team well with what we do in Navitas and SBA, and so we're very excited about that.

最後，我們剛剛引入了特許經營領域的領導者，特別是對於較大的多店主來說，這將與我們在 Navitas 和 SBA 所做的工作相得益彰，因此我們對此感到非常興奮。

Okay. Great. So it sounds like continue to be a little bit more surgical with your hiring as supposed to just bringing on a bunch of people at relatively higher costs, just get more wear on the cycle.

好的。偉大的。所以聽起來你的招聘會繼續進行一些外科手術，因為應該只是以相對較高的成本僱傭一群人，只是在周期中得到更多的磨損。

Our next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons of D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kevin Fitzsimmons。戴維森。

Just we've seen from a lot of banks so far, the shift of deposit balances declining and then in turn, the excess liquidity shrinking on the balance sheet. And just curious if you could give us what that change means? I know it you referred to an improving deposit mix going forward, and some of this is just really leaving the bank and leading the system. But what that means for future outlook for purchasing securities? Does it make the deposit beta accelerate more than you might have said last quarter?

到目前為止，我們已經從很多銀行看到，存款餘額的轉移減少，然後資產負債表上的過剩流動性減少。只是好奇你能不能告訴我們這種改變意味著什麼？我知道你提到了未來不斷改善的存款組合，其中一些只是真正離開銀行並領導系統。但這對購買證券的未來前景意味著什麼？它是否使存款測試版的加速比您上個季度所說的要快？

And then at the end of the day, you're still confident that versus the prior few years, we've been driving NII growth via the balance sheet while the margin was being compressed and are we -- we're shifting now and reversing where it's being driven by the percentage margin, but are you still confident that will be able to drive NII growth, even if average earning asset growth is a little lower than it's been.

然後在一天結束時，你仍然有信心，與前幾年相比，我們一直在通過資產負債表推動 NII 增長，同時利潤率被壓縮，我們現在正在轉變並逆轉它是由百分比利潤率驅動的，但您是否仍然有信心能夠推動 NII 增長，即使平均收益資產增長略低於以往。

Yes. So it's a great question. It's something that I think about a lot. And our -- the outlook for our NII growth is very strong. But I'll tell you some of the intricacies and some things I'm thinking about, right?

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題。這是我想了很多的事情。我們的 NII 增長前景非常強勁。但我會告訴你一些錯綜複雜的事情和我正在考慮的一些事情，對吧？

So if you have -- I think our deposit outflow was one of the least I've seen of other banks, but it's something that you worry about when you had over $1 billion, $1.4 billion of inflow over the last year.

所以如果你有 - 我認為我們的存款流出是我見過的其他銀行中最少的之一，但是當你去年有超過 10 億美元，14 億美元的流入時，你會擔心這一點。

So we realized that you might get some deposit outflow for the rest of the year. We have been growing our securities book very rapidly, and we are at $7 billion right now. And I think you're going to see that stay at $7 billion. One reason is to hold cash or if there is a deposit outflow, the other reason is if you got -- we're in such a volatile rate environment, rates may go up another 200 basis points. And I like the size of our securities portfolio now. So the -- the deposit outflow or the potential for it has probably led into keeping the securities portfolio relatively flat here.

所以我們意識到你可能會在今年剩下的時間裡得到一些存款流出。我們的證券賬簿增長非常迅速，現在我們的資產達到了 70 億美元。我認為你會看到這個數字保持在 70 億美元。一個原因是持有現金，或者如果有存款流出，另一個原因是如果你得到 - 我們處於如此動蕩的利率環境中，利率可能會再上漲 200 個基點。我喜歡我們現在證券投資組合的規模。因此 - 存款流出或它的潛力可能導致這裡的證券投資組合保持相對平穩。

Now on deposit betas, we just had a meeting yesterday and we just looked at competitor deposit pricing, and it hasn't really changed a lot. It may change in late July when we get to 75 basis points or 100 up. But the one thing I mentioned to the committee and one thing Rich and I have been talking about is if you're seeing this kind of loan growth from some of our competition, you've seen some really big deposit outflow from our competition that we may well see higher rates from them. We haven't seen that yet. We're still planning for the 24% deposit beta, but it is something that we're thinking about when we're doing our deposit committee.

現在關於存款測試版，我們昨天剛剛開了個會，我們只是查看了競爭對手的存款定價，它並沒有真正改變太多。當我們達到 75 個基點或 100 個基點時，它可能會在 7 月下旬發生變化。但是我向委員會提到的一件事以及 Rich 和我一直在談論的一件事是，如果您從我們的一些競爭對手中看到這種貸款增長，您已經看到我們的競爭對手中有一些非常大的存款流出，我們很可能會從他們那裡看到更高的利率。我們還沒有看到。我們仍在計劃 24% 的存款測試版，但這是我們在做存款委員會時正在考慮的事情。

So could it have an impact? Yes. But the big picture, I think, is this rate change and having us be right around 50-50 on floating rates, having us having one of the most core deposit base as we believe in the country, is going to translate to very significant margin expansion. I had mentioned the 20 to 25 basis points that I think we'll get next quarter.

那麼它會產生影響嗎？是的。但我認為，大局是這種利率變化，讓我們在浮動利率上保持在 50-50 左右，讓我們擁有我們認為該國最核心的存款基礎之一，這將轉化為非常可觀的利潤擴張。我已經提到了我認為我們將在下個季度獲得的 20 到 25 個基點。

Great. Just one follow-on, Lynn, on -- and by the way, Lynn, I just wanted to mention, thank you for those comments on DeVan. I was fortunate enough to get to know him and cover the stock. So I really appreciated that.

偉大的。只是一個後續，Lynn，關於 - 順便說一下，Lynn，我只想提一下，謝謝你對 DeVan 的評論。我有幸結識了他並報導了股票。所以我真的很感激。

One question regarding M&A, just if you guys still feel good about Progress closing in the fourth quarter, if that still seems on schedule. And longer term on M&A, I would assume you guys want to get that closed and integrated. So probably not top of mind in the near term, but longer term, given the shifting environment, does M&A become a little more focused on gathering deposits like it has traditionally, but maybe not so much in prior years for the industry? Just curious of your thoughts on that.

關於併購的一個問題，如果你們仍然對第四季度結束的進度感到滿意，如果這仍然按計劃進行。從併購的長期來看，我假設你們希望得到封閉和整合。因此，短期內可能不是首要考慮的問題，但從長期來看，考慮到環境的變化，併購是否會像傳統上那樣更加專注於收集存款，但對於該行業而言，前幾年可能並沒有那麼多？只是好奇你對此的想法。

Yes, sure. So -- and thank you for the comments on DeVan. Right now, on Progress, we do -- I mean, we are very cognizant of kind of change in regulatory leadership and more uncertainty about timing of deal closures.

是的，當然。所以- 感謝您對DeVan 的評論。現在，在 Progress 方面，我們確實 - 我的意思是，我們非常清楚監管領導層的變化以及交易完成時間的更多不確定性。

So we're currently certainly cognizant of that. We're progressing as we normally would. We still don't have any reason to believe we wouldn't be able to close on our fourth quarter schedule. But with that said, it's a different environment that we've been operating in. And so we've also got contingency plans in case it does extend out. So we'll wait and see on that.

所以我們目前肯定意識到這一點。我們像往常一樣在進步。我們仍然沒有任何理由相信我們無法按第四季度的時間表結束。但是話雖如此，我們一直在一個不同的環境中運作。所以我們也有應急計劃，以防它確實延伸。因此，我們將拭目以待。

In terms of M&A in general, yes, I think -- for the near term, with kind of prices down in the industry, there's just not a lot of activity going on. I wouldn't expect to see much announced -- can always get surprised. The conversations that we're having are just long-term relationship building conversations and with the same kind of banks that we've been focused on.

總的來說，就併購而言，是的，我認為——就近期而言，隨著行業價格的下降，沒有太多的活動正在進行。我不希望看到很多宣布 - 總是會感到驚訝。我們正在進行的對話只是建立長期關係的對話，並且與我們一直關注的同類銀行進行對話。

So $750 million to $3 billion banks in growth markets in the Southeast. There's not a lot of those left. We're continuing to work on building relationships with those. And we think -- if you look out another 9 months or so, we think maybe at that point is kind of when the market opens back up.

因此，在東南部的成長型市場中有 7.5 億至 30 億美元的銀行。剩下的已經不多了。我們將繼續努力與這些人建立關係。我們認為——如果你再看 9 個月左右，我們認為那時可能是市場重新開放的時候。

But we'll see. So I think we'll be in a quiet period for a while as an industry and certainly for us. And I think for us, that's helpful actually to get Progress and Reliant fully integrated.

但我們會看到的。因此，我認為作為一個行業，當然對我們來說，我們將處於一段時間的平靜期。我認為對我們來說，這實際上有助於將 Progress 和 Reliant 完全集成。

Our next caller is from David Bishop of Hovde Group.

我們的下一位來電者來自 Hovde Group 的 David Bishop。

Jefferson, maybe a question for you. You mentioned in the preamble of the containment of operating expenses, maybe on a core basis in that 3% to 4% rate, I think, year-over-year on a core basis. Is that -- should that be the expectations sort of near term and maybe into 2023, excluding some of the impacts on the Progress deal? Just how are you thinking about inflation impacting the rate of expense growth.

杰斐遜，也許是你的問題。您在序言中提到了控制運營費用，我認為可能是在核心基礎上，以 3% 到 4% 的速度在核心基礎上同比增長。那是否應該是近期的預期，可能是到 2023 年，不包括對 Progress 協議的一些影響？您如何看待通貨膨脹對費用增長率的影響。

It's a great question. Expenses for this quarter came in a little higher than I was expecting. And if you go back and look through, there's some seasonal type things in there. There's some invoice timing things in there. There's some project timing things in there. I think we'll continue to grow expenses will be a lot slower than what we grew them this quarter. I think it will be less than half of the growth of this quarter.

這是一個很好的問題。本季度的費用比我預期的要高一些。如果你回過頭去看，那裡有一些季節性的東西。裡面有一些發票計時的東西。裡面有一些項目時間安排的東西。我認為我們將繼續增加費用，這將比我們本季度的增長速度慢得多。我認為這將不到本季度增長的一半。

So we grew $3.3 million last quarter. I think it will be half or less of that in Q3. We're expecting some pretty significant efficiency ratio improvements in the back half of the year.

所以我們上個季度增長了 330 萬美元。我認為這將是第三季度的一半或更少。我們預計今年下半年效率比將出現相當顯著的提高。

And looking at -- it's early, but I'm looking at July, early expense reports I've been looking at, it looks like this forecast. I feel more confident in this forecast with what I'm seeing in July as well. So I think that kind of 4% target is a reasonable target for over time, and I lay it out where I think, in the near term.

看看 - 現在還早，但我在看 7 月，我一直在看的早期費用報告，看起來像這個預測。我對這個預測更有信心，我在 7 月份看到的情況也是如此。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，4% 的目標是一個合理的目標，我在短期內把它放在我認為的地方。

Got it. Appreciate that. And then maybe a high-level question maybe for Lynn. It doesn't sound like you're seeing much credit stress there, the 7% rate of growth. As you talk to market presidents out there, and obviously, you're in, obviously, some good strong population in for markets. Do you think that -- I mean, does that feel like the appropriate rate of growth or a good rate of growth for the overall macroeconomic backdrop? Just curious what you're seeing and maybe that backdrop that gives you comfort at that level.

知道了。感謝。然後也許是對 Lynn 來說的一個高級問題。聽起來你在那裡沒有看到太大的信貸壓力，7% 的增長率。當您與那裡的市場總裁交談時，很明顯，您顯然處於市場中一些強大的人口中。你認為——我的意思是，在整體宏觀經濟背景下，這感覺是適當的增長率還是良好的增長率？只是好奇你看到了什麼，也許是那個讓你在那個層面感到舒適的背景。

Yes. So I'll start and then Rich can jump in. But I certainly feel comfortable with that 7% range. And particularly, when you look at the additions that we've made to the sales staff, et cetera, we've been very -- we continue to be very focused on concentration management. Those sorts of things.

是的。所以我會開始，然後 Rich 可以加入。但我當然對 7% 的範圍感到滿意。特別是，當您查看我們對銷售人員等方面的補充時，我們一直非常 - 我們繼續非常關注集中度管理。諸如此類的事情。

And if you look at our markets, I think that's a very comfortable growth rate, somewhere in that 6% to 9% kind of range, I'd be very comfortable with right now. I don't know, Rich, if you have anything to.

如果你看看我們的市場，我認為這是一個非常舒適的增長率，在 6% 到 9% 的範圍內，我現在會很舒服。我不知道，Rich，如果你有什麼需要的話。

Yes. I would agree. And I'm the sales guy. I think I like the disciplined approach, especially as we're still talking about uncertainties that we don't know here and the near future. It certainly feels like we're doing the right things and the right blocking and tackling. And I think it's the right approach.

是的。我會同意的。我是銷售人員。我想我喜歡紀律嚴明的方法，尤其是當我們仍在談論我們在這里和不久的將來不知道的不確定性時。感覺就像我們在做正確的事情，正確的阻擋和鏟球。我認為這是正確的方法。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Catherine Mealor of KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Catherine Mealor。

A follow-up for you, Jefferson, on your 20 to 25 bp NIM outlook for next quarter. What kind of, I guess, balance sheet kind of growth are you assuming in that? Are you assuming more of a deployment of excess cash? And I think you mentioned that the securities portfolio will remain kind of flat. So I'm assuming that, but I guess it's really just the excess liquidity. How are you thinking about deployment of excess liquidity and how much that's contributing to the higher NIM guide versus just yields?

杰斐遜，您對下一季度 20 至 25 個基點的淨息差展望進行跟進。我猜，你假設資產負債表會出現什麼樣的增長？您是否假設更多地部署了多餘的現金？我認為你提到證券投資組合將保持平穩。所以我假設，但我想這實際上只是流動性過剩。你如何看待過剩流動性的部署，以及這對更高的 NIM 指導與僅收益率有何貢獻？

Great question. So we have a flat to slightly down balance sheet in Q3 that's going into that margin. So that would be relatively flat securities or very flat securities and then flat to down cash is what I'm thinking for Q3.

好問題。因此，我們在第三季度的資產負債表持平或略有下降，這將進入該利潤率。所以這將是相對持平的證券或非常持平的證券，然後現金持平到下降是我對第三季度的想法。

Great. Okay. And then your commentary about Navitas fees coming down. You mentioned a $2 million number. Is that relative to the $3.8 million line that includes SBA, USDA and Navitas?

偉大的。好的。然後你對 Navitas 費用下降的評論。你提到了一個 200 萬美元的數字。這是否相對於包括 SBA、USDA 和 Navitas 在內的 380 萬美元產品線？

Right. And let's just talk about that line item a little bit because it may well be in that $3 million range. It could be even as high as last quarter. But I think $2 million is the number that makes the most sense.

正確的。讓我們稍微談談那個項目，因為它很可能在 300 萬美元的範圍內。它甚至可能與上一季度一樣高。但我認為 200 萬美元是最有意義的數字。

And how we're thinking about it is we have significant margin expansion coming. We have significant spread expansion coming -- I'm sorry, net interest income growth on the way. We feel good about our loan growth outlook.

我們正在考慮的是，我們即將迎來顯著的利潤率擴張。我們即將進行顯著的利差擴張——對不起，淨利息收入正在增長。我們對貸款增長前景感到滿意。

And what we're seeing is in the pricing of these markets, you're seeing volatility is moving up and down, and that -- I don't want to be -- I don't know if the right word is forced, but I do want to be committed to selling loans no matter what the price is of the second half of the year, and that's kind of where we are. And most of the quarter the pricing was fine. But I don't want to be committed to that no matter what the price is in Q3.

我們看到的是這些市場的定價，你看到波動性在上下波動，而且 - 我不想這樣 - 我不知道是否強制使用正確的詞，但無論下半年的價格如何，我都希望致力於出售貸款，這就是我們所處的位置。本季度的大部分時間定價都很好。但無論第三季度的價格如何，我都不想承諾這一點。

And so then is there any change to your origination volume for Navitas? Or is it just that you might hold more on balance sheet and sell less? And so then in that respect, we might see actually higher loan growth because you're just keeping more Navitas on balance sheet.

那麼，您對 Navitas 的發起量有什麼變化嗎？還是只是你可能在資產負債表上持有更多而賣出更少？所以在這方面，我們可能會看到實際上更高的貸款增長，因為你只是在資產負債表上保留了更多的 Navitas。

That's correct. And so Navitas is growing at a really nice pace. And if we were to hold -- and right now, we're at 8% of total loans of Navitas. As you know, we have the limit -- self-imposed limit of 10. And if we keep a little more Navitas on balance sheet, it sets us up well for 2023 and the loan growth in the near term. So it's a -- I think it's a better long-term strategy to hold a little bit more of the Navitas loans and the SBA loans.

這是正確的。因此，Navitas 正在以非常好的速度增長。如果我們持有——現在，我們佔 Navitas 總貸款的 8%。如您所知，我們有限制 - 自我設定的限制為 10。如果我們在資產負債表上保留更多的 Navitas，它將為我們在 2023 年和短期內的貸款增長做好準備。所以這是一個 - 我認為持有更多的 Navitas 貸款和 SBA 貸款是一個更好的長期策略。

Okay. Great. And I think you said in the past, you have about a 6-month insight into kind of any turn in credit in Navitas, any commentary there, anything you're seeing in that business?

好的。偉大的。我想你過去說過，你有大約 6 個月的時間來了解 Navitas 的任何信貸轉變，那裡的任何評論，你在該業務中看到的任何事情？

Definitely (inaudible)

絕對（聽不清）

Yes. So I actually talked to them yesterday and really not see -- our expectation -- so we went from 9 basis points of losses in Q1 to 30 basis points of losses in Q2 pre-pandemic sort of in normalized times. They were running in the 70s to 80 basis point losses.

是的。所以我昨天實際上和他們談過，真的沒有看到 - 我們的預期 - 所以我們從第一季度的 9 個基點損失到第二季度大流行前的 30 個基點的損失，就像在正常時期一樣。他們在 70 年代虧損到 80 個基點。

So -- we would expect that to continue to normalize. I would expect something sort of north of 50 basis points going forward in losses, but still the early-stage delinquencies there are still very, very low compared to where they were pre-pandemic. So we're not seeing anything unusual at the moment, but just would expect it to return to a more normalized level.

所以——我們預計這種情況會繼續正常化。我預計未來的損失將超過 50 個基點，但與大流行前相比，早期的違約率仍然非常、非常低。因此，我們目前沒有看到任何異常情況，只是希望它恢復到更正常的水平。

Our next question comes from Christopher Marinac of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC.

我們的下一個問題來自 Janney Montgomery Scott LLC 的 Christopher Marinac。

Jefferson and team, I wanted to drill down further on liquidity. I know you gave some great information on an earlier answer. How do you think about using the existing securities book to harvest or even use it further as collateral? I know there's a bunch of capacity on both angles, just curious how you think about that. Would you keep this current size? Or would the environment lead you to change or just do something different than you have?

Jefferson 和他的團隊，我想進一步深入研究流動性。我知道您在較早的答案中提供了一些重要信息。您如何看待利用現有的證券賬簿來收穫甚至進一步用作抵押品？我知道這兩個角度都有很多容量，只是好奇你是怎麼想的。你會保持目前的尺寸嗎？還是環境會導致你改變或只是做一些與你不同的事情？

It's a great question, Chris. Something I think about. I think the deposit growth will drive that because, say, our deposit growth is flat for even 3 years. I think we'll -- we have the funding on our balance sheet and cash to fund that, but then we can also fund it with securities over time as well and just have a mix change here.

這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。我在想的東西。我認為存款增長將推動這一點，因為，比如說，我們的存款增長在 3 年內都是持平的。我想我們會——我們的資產負債表上有資金和現金來為它提供資金，但隨著時間的推移，我們也可以用證券為其提供資金，只是在這裡進行混合變化。

So I think what you're going to see is just not a lot of balance sheet growth but a mix change towards loans over time. So the way I think about it, too, the $7 billion securities book, I mean, I would be completely fine using over time. We have the cash to fund this now. But over time, if we use $2 billion of that to fund loan growth, and take our loan-to-deposit ratio back up to a more normal level of 80% and let capital grow, I'm completely fine with that.

所以我認為你將看到的不是資產負債表的大量增長，而是隨著時間的推移對貸款的混合變化。因此，我也是這麼想的，這本 70 億美元的證券賬簿，我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，我會完全沒問題的。我們現在有足夠的現金來資助這個。但隨著時間的推移，如果我們用其中的 20 億美元來為貸款增長提供資金，並將我們的貸存比恢復到更正常的 80% 水平並讓資本增長，我完全可以接受。

So I just -- I don't think you're going to see a lot of balance sheet growth for the next 12 to 18 months. And then you're going to see, again, cash decline and then maybe ultimately a handful of years out, you'll see securities ratio or securities being funded or loans being funded by securities as well.

所以我只是 - 我不認為你會在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內看到資產負債表有很大的增長。然後你會再次看到現金下降，然後可能最終幾年後，你會看到證券比率或證券被資助或貸款也由證券資助。

Great. I appreciate it. And then just kind of, I guess, a follow-up on the whole beta conversation. If we think about betas on the asset yield side, should Navitas perform similar to the rest of the UCB portfolio? Or will it be different just because of the nature of how those loans are originated?

偉大的。我很感激。然後，我想，是對整個測試版對話的跟進。如果我們考慮資產收益率方面的貝塔值，納微的表現是否應該與 UCB 投資組合的其他部分相似？還是僅僅因為這些貸款的來源性質而有所不同？

So Navitas will have a lower beta and maybe even a much lower beta than the rest of the book. They're making fixed rate loans. And when you're passing on rate increases, it takes a longer period of time.

所以 Navitas 的 beta 會比本書的其他部分低，甚至可能低得多。他們提供固定利率貸款。而當你傳遞利率增加時，它需要更長的時間。

So if you look at this quarter, that beta was very low, and I would expect it to stay very low. Navitas it was very helpful to us and it remains helpful to us in an up-rate environment, too, but it's very helpful in the down-rate environment. But it's not going to be -- it's not going to be very adjustable in the higher rate environment.

因此，如果您查看本季度，該測試版非常低，我預計它會保持在非常低的水平。 Navitas 它對我們非常有幫助，並且在升級的環境中也對我們有幫助，但在降速的環境中非常有幫助。但它不會——在更高速率的環境中它不會是非常可調的。

That said, if you look at last quarter, we had just under 50% of our loans being floating. With one more rate hike, we're going to be at closer to 53% floating. So becoming more variable in the whole book as rates move higher. So I still think you're going to see a good loan beta from us, but it's just not going to come from Navitas.

也就是說，如果您查看上個季度，我們的貸款中只有不到 50% 處於浮動狀態。再加上一次加息，我們將接近 53% 的浮動利率。因此，隨著利率的走高，整本書的變化也越來越大。所以我仍然認為你會從我們那裡看到一個很好的貸款測試版，但它不會來自 Navitas。

Got it. And given the change in interest rates here in the last several months, I mean, is there any pricing change at Navitas at all, like, will something be passed along by the end of September?

知道了。考慮到過去幾個月的利率變化，我的意思是，納維是否有任何定價變化，比如，9 月底會有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. So they are definitely passing along rate hikes, but it takes longer and they're a little more uncertain because it's a competitive environment.

是的。因此，他們肯定會繼續加息，但這需要更長的時間，而且他們更加不確定，因為這是一個競爭環境。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Lynn Harton for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議轉回給 Lynn Harton 做任何閉幕詞。

Great. Well, thanks again for joining the call and for your questions, and we look forward to any follow-up information that you might like to see. And otherwise, we will talk to you soon. Thank you so much.

偉大的。好吧，再次感謝您加入電話會議並提出您的問題，我們期待您可能希望看到的任何後續信息。否則，我們將很快與您交談。太感謝了。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。