TXNM Energy Inc (TXNM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the PNM Resources 2023 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lisa Goodman with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 PNM Resources 2023 年財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係部門的麗莎古德曼 (Lisa Goodman)。請繼續。

Thank you, Elena, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. This morning for the PNM Resources 2023 earnings call. Please note that the presentation for this conference call and other supporting documents are available on our website at PNM Resources.com. Joining me today are PNM Resources, Chairman and CEO, Pat Vincent-Collawn, President and Chief Operating Officer, Dan Terry, and Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Lisa easy.

謝謝你，艾琳娜，也謝謝大家加入我們。今天上午召開 PNM Resources 2023 年財報電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議的簡報和其他支援文件可在我們的網站 PNM Resources.com 上取得。今天與我一起出席的有 PNM Resources 董事長兼執行長 Pat Vincent-Collawn、總裁兼營運長 Dan Terry 以及資深副總裁、財務長兼財務主管 Lisa easy。

Before I turn the call over to Pat, I need to remind you that some of the information provided this morning should be considered forward-looking statements pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We caution you that all of the forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and that PNM Resources assumes no obligation to update this information for a detailed discussion of factors affecting PNM Resources' results, please refer to our current and future annual reports on Form 10 K, quarterly reports on Form 10 Q as well as reports on Form eight K filed with the SEC.

在我把電話轉給帕特之前，我需要提醒您，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，今天早上提供的一些資訊應被視為前瞻性陳述。我們提醒您，所有前瞻性陳述均基於當前的預期和估計，並且 PNM Resources 沒有義務更新此信息，以詳細討論影響 PNM Resources 業績的因素，請參閱我們當前和未來的年度報告向SEC 提交的表格10 K、季報以及表格10 Q 以及表格8 K 的報告。

With that, I will turn the call over to Pat.

這樣，我就把電話轉給帕特。

Thank you, Lisa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on pay a compliment day. So even though I can't see any of you, let me just say that you are all looking really good this year. I'm going to get started on slide 4. Some of you may be joining us for the first time or possibly the first time in a few years since we announced our merger. While we were disappointed with the outcome. We have continued to advance our standalone business strategy to invest in the infrastructure needed to meet customer needs, enable the clean energy transition and diversify our rate base.

謝謝你，麗莎。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們的讚美日。所以，儘管我看不到你們中的任何一個人，但我只想說你們今年看起來都非常好。我將從幻燈片 4 開始。你們中的一些人可能是第一次加入我們，或者可能是自從我們宣布合併以來幾年來第一次加入我們。雖然我們對結果感到失望。我們繼續推動我們的獨立業務策略，投資於滿足客戶需求所需的基礎設施，實現清潔能源轉型並使我們的費率基礎多樣化。

Yes, we're still standing and we're better than we've ever been in the energy transition, along with customer needs for reliability and resiliency results in substantial growth for our utility businesses. The continued increase in infrastructure needed to serve customers will more than double our rate base from 2020 to 2028. We have been improving the diversification of our rate base, prioritizing capital to make significant investments at TNMP to support the continued high growth in that service territory. These are recovered through the capital riders in place through the Public Utilities Commission of Texas at PNM, an increase in transmission investments also benefits for customers and are recovered through the formula rate. As a result, more of our investments are recovered through these recovery mechanism that were designed to encourage these investments over time. We've moved our TNMP and first rate base from a combined 31% back in 2018. So now more than 50%. And yes, you've heard that right, TNMP and for rig rates are now over half of our consolidated rate base.

是的，我們仍然屹立不倒，而且在能源轉型方面我們比以往任何時候都更好，加上客戶對可靠性和彈性的需求導致我們的公用事業業務大幅成長。為客戶提供服務所需的基礎設施不斷增加，從 2020 年到 2028 年，我們的費率基數將增加一倍以上。我們一直在改善費率基礎的多元化，優先考慮對 TNMP 進行大量投資，以支持該服務領域的持續快速成長。這些費用是透過德州公用事業委員會 PNM 的資本附加條款回收的，輸電投資的增加也有利於客戶，並透過公式費率回收。因此，我們更多的投資是透過這些回收機制回收的，這些機制旨在隨著時間的推移鼓勵這些投資。我們已將 TNMP 和一流基數從 2018 年的總計 31% 調整為 31%。所以現在超過50%。是的，您沒聽錯，TNMP 和鑽機費率現在已超過我們綜合費率基數的一半。

Turning to slide 5, consistent execution of our plans has resulted in a strong track record of achieving our financial targets. We remain flexible, responding to changing conditions each year and making adjustments to stay on track. We hold ourselves accountable to delivering results. We have achieved 6% earnings and dividend growth since 2019 and are positioned to continue this trajectory even in the current market environment.

轉向投影片 5，我們計劃的持續執行為實現我們的財務目標創造了良好的記錄。我們保持靈活性，每年應對不斷變化的情況並做出調整以保持正軌。我們對交付結果負責。自 2019 年以來，我們的獲利和股息成長了 6%，並且即使在當前的市場環境下也有望繼續保持這一成長勢頭。

And lastly, I'm still here and the team is still here, and we're focused on continuing to deliver our plans to customers, communities and shareholders. Both Dan and Lisa have been at the company over 20 years and have helped shape the course we've been charting. We had a strong financial financial profile three years ago, and with our increased diversification, it is even stronger today.

最後，我仍然在這裡，團隊仍然在這裡，我們專注於繼續向客戶、社區和股東交付我們的計劃。Dan 和 Lisa 都在公司工作了 20 多年，幫助我們制定了發展方向。三年前，我們擁有強勁的財務狀況，隨著我們多元化程度的提高，今天的財務狀況變得更加強勁。

Now turning to Slide 6. We are reporting ongoing earnings today of $2.82 for 2023, once again ahead of expectations. While some pieces of our recent PNM rate decision were disappointing. The questions around recovery of our legacy generation assets are resolved, and we now have a clear path going forward from a 2024 base. We are targeting 6% to 7% earnings growth through 2028. This is based on a 10% rate base growth over the same period. And Lisa will walk you through our financing assumptions in the earnings power slide. I know how much you have all missed that slide in it. Our 2024 guidance incorporates the PNM rate decision in our range of two 65 to 75. Dan will talk more about our regulatory plans moving forward. But before that, let me provide a quick update on our sales of New Mexico renewable development or NMRD. We are still on track to close this month. Our net proceeds are anticipated to be 150 million to reflect our 50% ownership share in the entity as we monetize the cash flows from this unregulated business.

現在轉到投影片 6。我們今天報告的 2023 年持續獲利為 2.82 美元，再次超出預期。雖然我們最近的 PNM 利率決定的一些內容令人失望。圍繞我們遺留發電資產回收的問題已經解決，我們現在有了以 2024 年為基礎的清晰前進道路。我們的目標是到 2028 年獲利成長 6% 至 7%。這是基於同期 10% 的利率基礎成長率。麗莎將引導您了解我們在獲利能力幻燈片中的融資假設。我知道你們有多錯過其中的幻燈片。我們的 2024 年指引將 PNM 利率決策納入我們的兩個 65 至 75 範圍內。丹將更多地談論我們未來的監管計劃。但在此之前，讓我先快速介紹一下我們新墨西哥州再生能源開發（NMRD）的銷售情況。我們仍有望在本月結束。我們的淨收益預計為 1.5 億美元，反映我們在該實體中擁有 50% 的所有權份額，因為我們將這一不受監管的業務的現金流貨幣化。

With that, Dan, I'll turn it over to you.

這樣，丹，我就把它交給你了。

Thank you, Beth, and good morning, everyone. I'll pick up on Slide 8 with more on our investment strategy at TNMP. The continued high growth across our three service territories in Texas requires substantial infrastructure investments to support customer growth and grid reliability for existing customers. Economic growth across the state continues to push the demands on our system to new levels after steady new system peaks. Over the last few summers, TNMP has already seen a new peak in 2024 as cold temperatures in January have pushed the system demand beyond the record-setting levels of last August.

謝謝你，貝絲，大家早安。我將繼續觀看投影片 8，詳細介紹我們在 TNMP 的投資策略。我們德州三個服務區域的持續高速成長需要大量基礎設施投資，以支援客戶成長和現有客戶的電網可靠性。在穩定的新系統高峰之後，全州的經濟成長繼續將我們的系統需求推向新的水平。在過去的幾個夏天，TNMP 已經在 2024 年達到了新的峰值，因為 1 月的寒冷氣溫使系統需求超過了去年 8 月創紀錄的水平。

Additionally, in response to concerns about extreme weather events and grid conditions. The Texas legislature in 2023 passed a series of bills aimed at encouraging investments to enhance grid reliability and resilience, which I'll talk more about in a minute. Our service territory is scattered across three distinct areas of the state, North Central Texas, the Gulf Coast and West Texas. Each of these three areas has different industries in their economy, which means our growth is well diversified as the larger metropolitan areas in the state continue to grow. These economies have been extending out further into our service territory.

此外，為了回應對極端天氣事件和電網狀況的擔憂。德州立法機構於 2023 年通過了一系列旨在鼓勵投資以增強電網可靠性和彈性的法案，我稍後將詳細討論這一點。我們的服務區域分佈在該州的三個不同地區：德克薩斯州中北部、墨西哥灣沿岸和德克薩斯州西部。這三個地區的經濟都有不同的產業，這意味著隨著該州較大的都市區的持續成長，我們的成長是多元化的。這些經濟體已經進一步擴展到我們的服務領域。

Turning to Slide 9. The regulatory framework in Texas also strongly encourages investments into the grid by providing timely recovery through rate mechanisms outside of general rate cases to minimize regulatory lag on the transmission side, the transmission cost of service or TI cost mechanism has allowed for CMI annual filings for several years. Tnmp has already made their first filing in 2024 in January request requesting recovery for an incremental 97 million of transmission rate base. We expect to follow our usual pattern and file again in the second half of the year.

轉向幻燈片 9。德州的監管框架也大力鼓勵對電網的投資，透過一般費率案例之外的費率機制提供及時恢復，以最大限度地減少輸電方面的監管滯後，服務輸電成本或TI 成本機制已允許CMI 進行年度申報年度。Tnmp 已於 1 月提出 2024 年首次申請，要求恢復增量 9,700 萬傳輸速率基礎。我們預計將按照以往的模式，在下半年再次提交申請。

On the distribution side, this will be the 1st year at TNMP expects to make two distribution cost recovery factor filings. Our DCRF filings after semi annual filings permitted where permitted through legislation last year. Recovery under the DCRF continues to require an earnings monitoring test to prevent over earning on the year end rate base, which we will file in the spring. We will then make our first filing in the second quarter and our second in the fourth quarter of this year. The regulatory clock on these filings has also been shortened to be similar to the transmission side with an advanced notice period for customers and then a 60 to 75 day period for commission review. We also expect to make our first resilience plan filing this year under the new rules implemented the legislature passed last year. An independent evaluation and development of a system resiliency plan covering three years is required in the filing under the rules, we may choose to recover the associated cost to capital investments under the existing T cost or DCRF. rules deferring depreciation on assets until recovery begins, we have estimated 450 million of projects in our current investment plan that could be part of our filing. The rules also allow for recovery of certain O&M costs like vegetation management expenditures that exceeds the amount authorized for recovery in our base rates. There is a 180 day clock for these filings, and we would make our filing this summer and expect recovery to begin in 2025. Some additional items that were passed in last year's legislative session are working their way through the PUCT rules, we continue to believe temporary mobile generation will play an important role across each region of our service territory, assisting TNMP and restoring power to distribution customers. After a significant event we have not included any potential amounts related to this need in our current capital plans.

在分銷方面，這將是 TNMP 預計第一年提交兩份分銷成本回收係數備案。去年立法允許的情況下，我們在半年度申報後提交的 DCRF 申報是允許的。DCRF 下的復甦仍需要進行收益監控測試，以防止年終利率基礎上的收益超額，我們將在春季提交該測試。然後，我們將在今年第二季提交第一次申請，並在第四季提交第二次申請。這些文件的監管時間也被縮短，與輸電方麵類似，為客戶提供提前通知期，然後有 60 至 75 天的佣金審查期。我們也預計今年將根據立法機關去年通過的新規則提交第一份彈性計畫。根據規則，備案時需要獨立評估和製定涵蓋三年的系統彈性計劃，我們可以選擇在現有的T成本或DCRF下收回相關的資本投資成本。根據將資產折舊推遲到復甦開始的規則，我們估計目前投資計畫中有 4.5 億個項目可能會成為我們備案的一部分。這些規則還允許回收某些營運和維護成本，例如超過我們基本費率中授權回收金額的植被管理支出。這些申請有 180 天的期限，我們將在今年夏天提交申請，預計恢復將於 2025 年開始。去年立法會議上通過的一些其他項目正在通過 PUCT 規則進行工作，我們仍然相信臨時移動發電將在我們服務區域的每個區域發揮重要作用，協助 TNMP 並恢復配電客戶的電力。在發生重大事件後，我們沒有將與此需求相關的任何潛在金額納入我們目前的資本計畫。

In regards to the legislation on West Texas transmission planning, the PUCT has required Ercot to file a reliability plan no later than July of 2024. And after an opportunity for stakeholder feedback, we would expect the Commission to review and approve a reliability plan for the Permian Basin, which could lead to additional investment needs. Another law shortens the time frame to consider applications for certificates of convenience and necessity or CCN for the new transmission across the state to further encourage new transmission development. Tnmp recently gained approval for a couple of projects in December and January that were reviewed and approved under the shorter schedule than we've seen historically, as the commission moves closer to that six month clock legislation was also implemented to allow for recovery of total employee compensation. And while this is not material to TNMP's bottom line, we would plan to include these costs in the future under a general rate review filing. In total, these mechanisms provide TNMP the opportunity to earn our authorized return and we will likely see additional investment opportunities in the future currently not included in our capital plan.

關於西德州輸電規劃的立法，PUCT 要求 Ercot 不遲於 2024 年 7 月提交可靠性計畫。在獲得利害關係人回饋的機會後，我們預計委員會將審查並批准二疊紀盆地的可靠性計劃，這可能會導致額外的投資需求。另一項法律縮短了考慮全州新輸電設備便利性和必要性證書或 CCN 申請的時間框架，以進一步鼓勵新輸電設備的發展。Tnmp 最近在12 月和1 月獲得了幾個項目的批准，這些項目的審查和批准時間比我們歷史上看到的要短，因為委員會越來越接近六個月的時鐘週期，立法也已實施，以允許員工總數恢復賠償。雖然這對 TNMP 的利潤並不重要，但我們計劃將來將這些成本納入一般費率審查備案中。總的來說，這些機制為 TNMP 提供了我們授權回報的機會，而我們未來可能會看到目前未包含在我們資本計劃中的其他投資機會。

Now turning to PNM on Slide 10. Our investments at P & M are similar in that they're focused on customer driven T&D projects to strengthen the grid. Pnm hit a new system peak in 2022 and in 2023 after not seeing one in nearly a decade. Clean energy mandates in New Mexico over the next 20 years will require additional transmission resources to integrate a growing amount of intermittent renewable resources on the system the transition to clean energy has also led to some economic development wins for this date, including Maxeon Solar first US manufacturing facility being built in Albuquerque, grid modernization investments for utilities across the state are also being considered at the commission level.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的 PNM。我們在 P&M 的投資相似，都專注於客戶驅動的輸配電項目，以加強電網。Pnm 在近十年未出現系統峰值後，於 2022 年和 2023 年達到了新的系統峰值。新墨西哥州未來20 年的清潔能源指令將需要額外的傳輸資源，以將越來越多的間歇性再生資源整合到系統中。向清潔能源的過渡也帶來了迄今為止的一些經濟發展勝利，包括Maxeon Solar 第一個美國阿爾伯克基正在建造製造工廠，委員會層級也考慮對全州公用事業進行電網現代化投資。

Now under rulemaking prompted by legislation, we have reduced the amount of capital investments into generation resources substantially over the last decade to support lower cost for our customers. The renewable resources chosen to replace our San Juan coal plant and our power already leased capacity were secured through renewable and storage purchase agreements. We do think there is an operational advantage to having utility ownership of battery storage on our system as we have more control and how the resources cycled to support our customers' patterns of use with the passage of the IRA utility ownership on a cost basis has become more competitive. And we currently have a proposal in front of the commission for storage through utility ownership and the capital for their own storage is in our plan. Otherwise, our generation capital supports our existing fleet of resources that provides overall system or a liability to our customers.

現在，在立法推動的規則制定下，我們在過去十年中大幅減少了對發電資源的資本投資，以支持客戶降低成本。選擇替代我們的聖胡安燃煤電廠的可再生資源以及我們已租賃的電力容量是透過再生能源和儲存購買協議獲得的。我們確實認為，在我們的系統上擁有電池存儲的公用事業所有權具有運營優勢，因為我們擁有更多的控制權，並且隨著IRA 公用事業所有權在成本基礎上的通過，資源如何循環以支持客戶的使用模式已成為更具競爭力。目前，我們向委員會提出了一項透過公用事業所有權進行儲存的提案，而他們自己的儲存資本也在我們的計劃中。否則，我們的發電資本支持我們現有的資源群，為我們的客戶提供整體系統或責任。

Turning to slide 11, the rate-making structure in New Mexico provides the opportunity to earn our authorized return through the use of a future test year and specific riders such as the fuel clause generation and distribution system costs are completely tied to serving our retail customers and are recovered through a general rate review mechanism. Our transmission system is used to serve both retail customers and for transmission customers that are moving energy across our system. And those costs are allocated between the different sets of customers based on utilization of the system. First, transmission costs are recovered through a formula rate, which allows for an annual filing to update the system utilization and corresponding rates for the customer. In the past several rate filings. The most controversial issue has been recovery of our generation resources in the general rate review decided last month the commission resolve the remaining generation transitional issues that date back to decisions made by the prior commission in 2016. The decision in this case resolved those issues and allows the focus to turn towards a forward-looking solution of grid modernization and resiliency investments that are required as we transition to carbon-free while providing value to our customers. Our application for distribution level battery storage did not have any opposition from an intervenors and was approved by the commission for recovery in 2024 rate change. We received recovery in this case for over 2 billion of incremental investments and approval for 97% of our requested O&M costs. Our fuel clause was also approved for continuation. Another application currently in front of the Commission proposes grid modernization investments, including smart meters and other distribution level projects designed to empower customers and laid the groundwork for a more resilient grid. We expect a decision on this case by the third quarter. We also expect a decision this summer on our proposal for new resources in 2026, we have put for 350 megawatts of solar and storage purchases, along with a 60 megawatt utility-owned battery recovery for any new resources approved in this docket that cannot be included in our fuel clause would be also part of our next rate case filing. We have a couple of upcoming filings on our agenda, we will make our annual filing associated with our first formula where we expect to see increased utilization of transmission system by first customers based on new contracts. We also plan to make our next rate retail rate filing this summer for rates that would become effective in the third quarter of 2025 so far, and we'll use a future test year ending partway through 2026, and we assume a 13 month regulatory clock on Slide 12. After taking into account these changes, the average residential bill at PNM is significantly lower than both our regional and national average. The Energy Transition Act is achieving its goals for customer benefits as we exit coal, we are seeing load growth to reduce the pre for customer impacts and our fuel costs have been significantly reduced by our participation in the Western Energy Imbalance Market and its optimization of renewable resources. We have also exercised discipline in our O&M costs and are focused on initiatives that provide direct benefits to customers.

轉向投影片 11，新墨西哥州的費率制定結構提供了透過使用未來測試年來獲得我們授權回報的機會，並且特定附加條款（例如燃油條款生成和分銷系統成本）與服務我們的零售客戶完全相關並通過一般費率審查機制予以回收。我們的傳輸系統用於服務零售客戶和透過我們的系統傳輸能源的傳輸客戶。這些成本根據系統的利用率在不同的客戶群之間分配。首先，傳輸成本透過公式費率回收，允許每年提交報告以更新系統利用率和客戶的相應費率。在過去的幾次利率申請中。最具爭議的問題是在上個月決定的一般費率審查中回收我們的發電資源，委員會解決了剩餘的發電過渡問題，這些問題可以追溯到上一個委員會在 2016 年做出的決定。本案例中的決定解決了這些問題，並使重點轉向電網現代化和彈性投資的前瞻性解決方案，這是我們向無碳過渡同時為客戶提供價值所需的。我們的配電級電池儲存申請沒有受到干預者的任何反對，並獲得了委員會批准，可在 2024 年費率調整後恢復。在這個案例中，我們收回了超過 20 億的增量投資，並批准了我們要求的 97% 的營運和維護成本。我們的燃油條款也被批准繼續使用。目前提交給委員會的另一項申請提出了電網現代化投資，包括智慧電錶和其他配電級項目，旨在增強客戶能力並為更具彈性的電網奠定基礎。我們預計將在第三季對此案做出決定。我們也預計今年夏天就我們的2026 年新資源提案做出決定，我們已購買350 兆瓦的太陽能和儲存設備，以及針對本案列中批准的任何新資源（無法包含在內）的60 兆瓦公用事業擁有的電池回收我們的燃料條款也將成為我們下一次費率案件備案的一部分。我們的議程上有幾個即將提交的文件，我們將進行與我們的第一個公式相關的年度文件，我們預計第一批客戶根據新合約將增加對傳輸系統的利用率。我們也計劃在今年夏天提交下一次利率零售利率備案，利率將於 2025 年第三季生效，我們將使用在 2026 年中期結束的未來測試年，並假設監管時鐘為 13 個月在幻燈片12 上。考慮到這些變化後，PNM 的平均住宅帳單明顯低於我們地區和全國的平均水平。隨著我們退出煤炭，《能源轉型法案》正在實現其為客戶帶來利益的目標，我們看到負載成長，以減少對客戶的影響，而我們的燃料成本透過我們參與西部能源失衡市場及其對再生能源的優化而顯著降低資源。我們也嚴格控制營運和維護成本，並專注於為客戶提供直接利益的措施。

With that, I will turn the time over to Lisa to walk through the financials.

這樣，我將把時間交給麗莎來詳細介紹財務狀況。

Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. Outside of the slide 14, with a summary of the year-over-year changes in 2023 earnings. As Pat reported earlier 2023, ongoing earnings are $2.82 per share, a 13% increase from 2020 to load growth and weather added to PNM and TNMP combined earnings on a year-over-year basis at PNM lower operating costs as we transition our generation portfolio to carbon-free energy and higher transmission margins, driven by increased usage of our system, increased earnings year over year, continued rate recovery of transmission and distribution investments at T & MPRT. costs and DCRF filings increased earnings. These increases were partially offset at both utilities by expenses for depreciation, property tax and interest associated with new rate base investments. Lower earnings at corporate reflect higher interest rates year over year, partially mitigated by the hedges we've previously put in place detailed segment-level drivers can be found in the appendix of today's presentation.

謝謝你，唐，大家早安。在投影片 14 之外，總結了 2023 年收益的同比變化。正如Pat 於2023 年初報導的那樣，持續收益為每股2.82 美元，比2020 年增長13%，因為負載增長和天氣因素增加了PNM 和TNMP 的綜合收益，隨著我們轉變發電組合，PNM 運營成本降低。由於我們系統使用量的增加、逐年增加的收入以及 T & MPRT 輸配電投資的持續恢復率，我們實現了無碳能源和更高的輸電利潤。成本和 DCRF 申請增加了收益。兩家公用事業公司的這些增長被折舊、財產稅和與新利率基礎投資相關的利息費用部分抵消。企業獲利下降反映了利率逐年上升，我們先前實施的對沖措施部分緩解了這一影響。詳細的細分市場驅動因素可以在今天簡報的附錄中找到。

Slide 15 provides an overview of our financial outlook. Our guidance for 2024 is a range of $2.65 to $2.75. I'll walk through the drivers of 2024 earnings compared to 2023, along with our estimated quarterly earnings distribution.

幻燈片 15 概述了我們的財務前景。我們對 2024 年的指導範圍是 2.65 美元至 2.75 美元。我將介紹 2024 年收益與 2023 年相比的驅動因素，以及我們預期的季度收益分配。

I'll then move into our capital investment plan, which has been carried out through 2028 and reflects rate base growth of 10% and our financing plans to support these investments.

然後我將介紹我們的資本投資計劃，該計劃一直持續到 2028 年，反映了 10% 的利率基數增長以及我們支持這些投資的融資計劃。

And then I'll carry those assumptions forward into our earnings power slide showing the earnings potential of our business through 2028.

然後我將把這些假設帶入我們的獲利能力幻燈片中，顯示我們業務到 2028 年的獲利潛力。

Lastly, I'll recap our dividend and payout ratio based on the increase announced in December.

最後，我將根據 12 月宣布的成長回顧我們的股息和派息率。

Let's get started on slide 16. With 2024 guidance, we are introducing a range of $2.65 to $2.75 for 2024. At PNM, our recent rate case outcome has $0.12 to year-over-year earnings. Keep in mind that going into this case, PNM was able to earn its return by offsetting the regulatory lag on new investments made since 2018 through the energy transition, we expect that we expect to earn our authorized return in 2024 since new rates have trued up our investments in costs at TNMP rate relief through the peaker and DCRF mechanism increases earnings, including our 1st year of implementing two DCRF filings, along with the recently approved resiliency will higher transmission margins and income from our decommissioning trust also adds to earnings at PNM in 2024. These increases at both utilities are offset by the depreciation, property tax and interest costs associated with new investments at corporate. The increase in debt balances to fund future growth are partially offset by the equity issued in 2023 and the proceeds from the sale of NMRD. expected in February. We continue to have 600 million of hedges in place in 2024. So hold the underlying interest rate at 3.5%. Our guidance reflects the additional shares issued through our ATM program in 2023 to support capital investments. We issued a total of 4.4 million shares we have, which has a $0.14 impact on year-over-year earnings per share. As for our quarterly distribution of earnings, we remain a summer peaking utility with a third quarter being our largest quarter. From an earnings perspective, the remaining three quarters are fairly evenly split.

讓我們從幻燈片 16 開始。根據 2024 年指導，我們將在 2024 年推出 2.65 美元至 2.75 美元的價格區間。在 PNM，我們最近的利率案例結果為同比收益 0.12 美元。請記住，在這種情況下，PNM 能夠透過抵銷自 2018 年以來透過能源轉型進行的新投資的監管滯後來獲得回報，我們預計我們預計將在 2024 年獲得授權回報，因為新利率已經實現我們透過尖峰和DCRF 機制對TNMP 費率減免成本的投資增加了收益，包括我們實施兩份DCRF 備案的第一年，以及最近批准的彈性將提高輸電利潤率，來自我們退休信託的收入也增加了PNM的收益2024 年。兩家公用事業公司的這些成長被與企業新投資相關的折舊、財產稅和利息成本所抵銷。為未來成長提供資金的債務餘額的增加被 2023 年發行的股權和出售 NMRD 的收益部分抵消。預計二月。到 2024 年，我們將繼續實施 6 億套對沖。因此，將基礎利率維持在3.5%。我們的指導反映了 2023 年透過 ATM 計畫發行的額外股票，以支持資本投資。我們總共發行了 440 萬股股票，這對每股盈餘的年比影響為 0.14 美元。至於我們的季度收益分配，我們仍然是夏季高峰公用事業，第三季是我們最大的季度。從獲利角度來看，剩餘三個季度的業績分佈相當均勻。

Turning to slide 17, we have updated and rolled out our capital plan through 2020 for a total of $6.1 billion over five years. But in large part, it remains the same as the capital plan that we shared with you on our third quarter earnings call last year. Tnmp continues to be our largest category of investments as we supported increased system demands across our service territories, while also benefiting from a supportive legislative and regulatory environment. As Dan discussed earlier, based on the new legislation, there may be additional opportunities beyond the current plan for things like temporary mobile generation or additional transmission investments in West Texas P & MGND. includes nearly 300 million in 2024 through 2028 for the grid modernization investments that are currently being considered by the commission. Approximately 175 million of those costs are associated with automated meters, which we believe is a priority for customers and especially to implement more advanced rate structures. Pnm on battery storage includes 135 million for the 60 megawatt utility owned battery included in our 2026 resource filing. We expect a decision this summer. Our plans also include another 30 megawatts of the smaller distribution level battery storage that will be required that will require a separate commission approval, and we see potential for that lead to growth. We do not have any other new utility owned generation included in our plans. But but as economic development efforts continue in New Mexico, we will see a need for additional resources beyond 2026 in this circumstance, regardless whether they are utility owned or PPS., we would need to put forth a filing with those resources for commission approval. The bottom of this slide shows that this investment plan translates into 10% rate base growth for 2024 through 2028. Tnmp is our fastest growing area of 13% and surpasses the level of rate base at and M. retail by 2020.

轉向投影片 17，我們更新並推出了到 2020 年的資本計劃，五年內總計 61 億美元。但在很大程度上，它與我們去年第三季財報電話會議上與您分享的資本計劃保持不變。Tnmp 仍然是我們最大的投資類別，因為我們支援整個服務領域不斷增長的系統需求，同時也受益於支持性的立法和監管環境。正如 Dan 之前所討論的，根據新立法，除了當前計劃之外，可能還有其他機會，例如臨時移動發電或西德克薩斯州 P & MGND 的額外輸電投資。其中包括 2024 年至 2028 年近 3 億美元的電網現代化投資，目前委員會正在考慮。其中約 1.75 億美元與自動化電錶相關，我們認為這是客戶的首要任務，尤其是實施更先進的費率結構。電池儲存方面的 Pnm 包括我們 2026 年資源歸檔中包含的 60 兆瓦公用事業自有電池的 1.35 億美元。我們預計今年夏天會做出決定。我們的計劃還包括另外 30 兆瓦的小型配電級電池存儲，這將需要單獨的委員會批准，我們看到了這帶來成長的潛力。我們的計劃中沒有包含任何其他新的公用事業自有發電。但是，隨著新墨西哥州經濟發展努力的持續，在這種情況下，我們將看到在2026 年後需要額外的資源，無論它們是公用事業公司還是PPS。我們需要提交一份包含這些資源的文件以供委員會批准。這張投影片的底部顯示，該投資計畫轉化為 2024 年至 2028 年 10% 的利率基礎成長。Tnmp 是我們成長最快的領域，成長率為 13%，到 2020 年將超過零售業的費率基礎水準。

On Slide 18, I'll share the financing assumptions in our plan in 2023, we raised 200 million of equity through our ATM program to support investments made at both utilities and issued those shares. In December, we expect $115 million of proceeds from our D. sale in February, and we issued 343 million in securitization bonds in November. I also noted earlier that we continue to have $600 million of hedges in place for 2024 and 300 million for 2025. As we move forward, we continue to see an equity need of $100 million per year on average through 2028 for a total of 500 million to support our 10% rate base growth. We currently have two term loans at the holding company totaling 1 billion with half maturing in 2025 and the other half maturing in 2026. We previously talked about our intention to refinance this amount on a longer-term basis. As we do this, we will look to utilize debt instruments that provide equity credit to benefit our metrics and support our ratings. We believe this provides an efficient way of financing growth while also refinancing the business more permanently. As we have done in the past, we are being transparent about our modeling assumptions upfront but we have not made any firm commitments to these instruments for timing. We will evaluate market conditions as they evolve in order to optimize our financing over our longer term plans before we leave this slide, S&P recently moved our outlook from positive to stable at all three entities and move up to a positive outlook was done following the 2020 announcement of our merger based on the benefit of being part of a larger entity, stable outlook brings us back to the same rating and outlook held prior to the merger announcement. Now let's turn to Slide 19 for the highly anticipated return of our potential earnings power slide. This view incorporates our capital investment plans, new financing assumption, and it supports our targeted earnings growth of 6% to 7% through 2028 from our 2024 guidance midpoint of $2.70. We have rolled forward our rate base to incorporate the CapEx plan that we just work walk through for PNM retail, P & M for MT. and MP., we are assuming that we earn our authorized return on rate base with the currently authorized equity capitalization. I'll note that PNM retail incorporates the newly authorized ROE of 9.26% and equity capitalization of 50% for all years. As for, we've been able to offset regulatory lag and earn our 10% authorized return these last few years after acquiring the Western Spirit transmission line in 2021, total PNM also includes items not in rates which accounts for any short-term interest expense and offset through AFUDC decommissioning and reclamation trust income and certain incentive compensation that is not recovered in rates P & MP. earns its return earns its return in each year. Any regulatory lag stemming from the use of a historical test year is largely offset by load growth. The addition of a second DCRF filing and improved recovery under the resiliency rider short time. Interest expense is offset by AFUDC and the incentive provided by the energy efficiency will fill in any remaining gap.

在投影片 18 上，我將分享我們 2023 年計畫中的融資假設，我們透過 ATM 計畫籌集了 2 億股本，以支持對兩家公用事業公司的投資並發行這些股票。12 月份，我們預計 D. 銷售將在 2 月份獲得 1.15 億美元的收益，11 月份我們發行了 3.43 億美元的證券化債券。我先前也指出，我們將繼續在 2024 年和 2025 年分別部署 6 億美元和 3 億美元的對沖資金。隨著我們的前進，我們預計到 2028 年，每年平均需要 1 億美元的股本需求，總計 5 億美元，才能支持我們 10% 的利率基礎成長。目前我們在控股公司有兩筆定期貸款，總額為10億，一半將於2025年到期，另一半將於2026年到期。我們之前曾討論過我們打算長期為這筆資金進行再融資。當我們這樣做時，我們將尋求利用提供股權信貸的債務工具來改善我們的指標並支持我們的評級。我們相信，這提供了一種有效的成長融資方式，同時也為業務提供更持久的再融資。正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們預先對我們的建模假設保持透明，但我們尚未對這些工具的時間表做出任何堅定的承諾。在我們離開這張投影片之前，我們將評估市場狀況的發展，以便在我們的長期計畫中優化我們的融資，標準普爾最近將我們對所有三個實體的前景從正面調整為穩定，並在2020年之後將我們的前景調整為正面我們宣布合併是基於成為更大實體的一部分的好處，穩定的前景使我們回到了合併宣布之前持有的相同評級和前景。現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 19，了解我們備受期待的潛在盈利能力幻燈片的回報。這一觀點包含了我們的資本投資計劃和新的融資假設，它支持我們到 2028 年的目標盈利增長從 2024 年指導中點 2.70 美元增長 6% 至 7%。我們已經將費率基礎向前推進，以納入我們剛剛針對 PNM 零售、針對 MT 的 P&M 進行演練的資本支出計劃。和 MP.，我們假設我們以當前授權的股本資本賺取授權的利率基礎回報。我要指出的是，PNM 零售業所有年份均採用新授權的 9.26% 股本回報率和 50% 的股本資本化。至於，在 2021 年收購 Western Spirit 輸電線路後，我們已經能夠抵消監管滯後並在過去幾年獲得 10% 的授權回報，總 PNM 還包括不在利率中的項目，這些項目佔任何短期利息費用並通過AFUDC退休和復墾信託收入以及未在費率P & MP 中收回的某些激勵補償來抵消。每年都會獲得回報。由於使用歷史測試年而產生的任何監管滯後在很大程度上都會被負載增長所抵消。增加了第二次 DCRF 備案並改善了彈性附加條款下的短期恢復。利息費用由 AFUDC 抵消，能源效率提供的誘因將填補任何剩餘的缺口。

The corporate and other and equity financing line reflects the financing assumptions by I covered on the previous slide. Again, these are modeling assumptions in the range of impacts we're showing on this slide allow for flexibility as we optimize these financing plans based on market conditions, consolidated EPS is a range supporting our target of 6% to 7% growth through 2020. This is an update from our previous target, which incorporates various outcomes impacting PNM and our overall financing. The resolution of PNM's rate case gives us increased confidence in our plan when comparing to our rate base growth of 10% over the same period of 2024 through 2028. The difference is primarily financing costs. We feel confident in our plan and ability to execute on our growth targets as we move forward. We will continue to update this slide to provide transparency into our plans and reflect any material changes.

公司、其他和股權融資額度反映了我在上一張投影片中介紹的融資假設。同樣，這些是我們在這張投影片上展示的影響範圍內的建模假設，當我們根據市場條件優化這些融資計劃時，可以提供靈活性，綜合每股收益是支持我們到2020 年增長6% 至7% 的目標的範圍。這是我們先前目標的更新，其中包含影響 PNM 和我們整體融資的各種結果。與 2024 年至 2028 年同期 10% 的利率基礎增長相比，PNM 利率案例的解決讓我們對我們的計劃更有信心。差異主要在於融資成本。隨著我們的前進，我們對我們的計劃和執行成長目標的能力充滿信心。我們將繼續更新此投影片，以提高我們計劃的透明度並反映任何重大變更。

Before I hand things back to Pat's.

在我把東西還給帕特之前。

Slide 20 shows our dividend. We increased our annual dividend to $1.55 in December of 5.4% increase. We maintain dividend growth throughout the merger process and look to grow the dividend to stay within our targeted payout ratio as we manage the business over a long-term horizon with that, I'll turn it back over to Sam.

幻燈片 20 顯示了我們的股息。12 月份，我們將年度股息提高至 1.55 美元，增幅為 5.4%。我們在整個合併過程中保持股息成長，並希望在我們長期管理業務時增加股息以保持在我們的目標派息率之內，我會將其轉回給 Sam。

Thank you, Lisa. Before we open it up for questions, let me acknowledge all of our teams here at PNM Resources. Everyone here plays a part in executing our business strategy, whether it's working on infrastructure, construction from start to finish answering customer calls, restoring power or supporting our teams and the customers that are the core of our purpose.

謝謝你，麗莎。在我們開始提問之前，請允許我向 PNM Resources 的所有團隊表示感謝。這裡的每個人都在執行我們的業務策略中發揮作用，無論是基礎設施建設、從頭到尾的施工、接聽客戶電話、恢復電力或支持我們的團隊和客戶，這是我們的核心目標。

Thank you. Your efforts are both seen and appreciated. And I hope that you all agree that we are still standing better than we've ever been linear. Let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝。您的努力都會被看見並受到讚賞。我希望你們都同意，我們仍然比以前的線性狀態更好。讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Julien Dumoulin-Smith，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning and thank you guys, very much. I appreciate it. And thankfully, we have our wonderful slides back here. So appreciate all the added disclosure renewed disclosure.

嘿，早安，非常感謝你們。我很感激。值得慶幸的是，我們還有精彩的幻燈片回到這裡。因此，感謝所有添加的披露和更新的披露。

Thank you, Julian. You're welcome.

謝謝你，朱利安。不客氣。

Thank you very much. Indeed. It look, I mean a bunch of different things stemming off that if we can. I maybe just first off, just what are you saying here vis a vis 2027 here? I mean, just obviously you're talking about a new rate case here mid-part of this year. I mean, implicitly, are we to kind of think that you don't get back to the full earnings power by until 27 or how do you think about sort of the cadence of earned returns in New Mexico in the interim here? And then also, just maybe you can speak a little bit to the dynamics around the Corporate and Other as there's some gyrations there as well through the forecast period.

非常感謝。的確。看起來，我的意思是，如果可以的話，我們會從中產生很多不同的東西。我可能首先想問一下，您在這裡對 2027 年說的是什麼？我的意思是，很明顯，您正在談論今年中期的新利率案例。我的意思是，隱含地，我們是否認為你要到 27 歲才能恢復全部盈利能力，或者你如何看待新墨西哥州在此期間的賺取回報的節奏？另外，也許您可以談談公司和其他方面的動態，因為在預測期內也存在一些波動。

Okay, Duncan. And I think that the rate case and the case in Mexico and in the corporate and other?

好的，鄧肯。我認為利率案件以及墨西哥的案件以及企業和其他案件？

Yes, good morning, Julien. On the rate case, we will, as we talked about this summer, while our mix of forward looking test year in New Mexico. And what you're going to see is you're going to see rate cases likely every couple of years. It's a 13 month window that allows us the rates to stay affordable allows our cost to get recovered in a timely manner. And again, these are smaller rate increases and these are forward-looking test periods as well, too. So I think you're going to see that on the cadence as we kind of work our way through that earnings power through 2027.

是的，早上好，朱利安。關於利率情況，正如我們今年夏天所討論的那樣，我們將在新墨西哥州進行前瞻性測試年的組合。您將看到的是，您可能每隔幾年就會看到一次利率案例。這是一個 13 個月的窗口，使我們能夠保持可承受的費率，使我們的成本能夠及時收回。再說一次，這些都是較小的升息，也是前瞻性的測試期。因此，我認為隨著我們努力實現 2027 年盈利能力，您將會看到這一點。

Yes. And I would also say at TNMP for we really are earning our allowed return there, especially in Texas when you have added another DCRF filing in terms of the corporate and other and financing in drilling, we have really thought about this in two ways, right? We have put for $500 million of equity to fund growth through the time period. And then we're also thinking about our term loans. And so we will refinance those more permanently, which we've talked about before, and we will use on debt instruments with equity content to refinance those. And all those are assumptions, though we have included in our earnings power back to the India.

是的。我還要說，在TNMP，我們確實在那裡獲得了允許的回報，特別是在德克薩斯州，當您在公司和其他以及鑽探融資方面添加了另一份DCRF 備案時，我們確實從兩個方面考慮了這一點，對吧？我們已投入 5 億美元的股本，為這段期間的成長提供資金。然後我們也在考慮我們的定期貸款。因此，我們將更永久地為這些再融資，我們之前已經討論過，我們將使用含有股權內容的債務工具來為這些再融資。所有這些都是假設，儘管我們已將印度的獲利能力納入其中。

Maybe just to follow up where you picked it up last, I left it out there just on the balance sheet where you talk about 100 million in equity, but then some amount of the $1 billion being refinanced with equity linked. I mean, what portion are you expecting there? And then just more specifically here. I think that's what has changed. What specific FFO-to-debt metric are you guys targeting at this point? And maybe even within that, how the latest conversations post deal break how have they gone with the rating agencies during post rate case resolution?

也許只是為了跟進你上次提到的地方，我把它留在了資產負債表上，你提到了 1 億股本，但 10 億美元中的一部分是與股本掛鉤的再融資。我的意思是，你期待什麼部分？然後在這裡更具體地說。我認為這就是改變的原因。你們目前的目標是什麼？也許甚至在此範圍內，交易後的最新對話如何打破他們在利率案件解決過程中與評級機構的關係如何？

Yes, Julien, we went back and see both rating agencies. I mean Lisa and her team have been keeping up with the Motorola deal. And then Dan and I joined the team to visit both rating agencies. They were very constructive on and they understand where we are in 2023 because of the San Juan credit write off and they all agree, it was the appropriate decision to get rid of those like that same one credit and bring everybody on board, but they have been very, very constructive with us. They know our commitment to investment grade credit rating. I think we're the only utility actually have it in our long-term incentive plan. So I'll let Lisa give you more color, but we have had some robust discussions with them.

是的，朱利安，我們回去看了兩家評級機構。我的意思是麗莎和她的團隊一直在跟進摩托羅拉交易。然後我和丹就加入了團隊，拜訪了兩家評級機構。他們非常有建設性，他們了解 2023 年我們所處的位置，因為聖胡安信貸被註銷，他們都同意，擺脫類似的信貸並讓每個人都參與進來是適當的決定，但他們有對我們非常非常有建設性。他們知道我們對投資等級信用評級的承諾。我認為我們是唯一一家將其納入長期激勵計劃的公用事業公司。所以我會讓麗莎給你更多的色彩，但我們已經與他們進行了一些深入的討論。

Yes, and doing that one of the things that we did during while we were under the merger is that we really pushed out the maturities of those term loans rises 25 and 26, which has given us more time to think about what how we're refinancing and $1 billion at the holdco, what we're looking at as junior subs and particularly and especially since Moody's changed there guidance recently and it provides equity credit for and junior yourself?

是的，我們在合併期間所做的事情之一就是，我們確實將這些定期貸款的期限延長了 25 和 26，這讓我們有更多的時間來思考我們如何再融資和控股公司的10 億美元，我們將什麼視為初級替代者，特別是穆迪最近改變了指導，並且它為初級次級者提供了股權信貸？

Yes. Okay. Wonderful. The juniors on that piece. And then lastly, if I can just come back to what's included in the plan or what have you I mean just to clarify earlier. So the reason for the jump in 27 is what exactly how do you think about that versus, as you say, like several smaller rate cases here. I mean, I would have thought there would have been more of a steady increase versus kind of a more more of a slight step function there from 2016 to 27, if you will, is that Julianna derivative planning on on how are returns look or what is that?

是的。好的。精彩的。那件作品上的後輩們。最後，如果我能回到計劃中包含的內容或你有什麼，我的意思只是早些時候澄清一下。因此，27 例躍升的原因在於，與您所說的幾個較小比率的案例相比，您究竟如何看待這個問題。我的意思是，我原以為從 2016 年到 27 年，會有更多的穩定增長，而不是一種更輕微的階躍函數，如果你願意的話，朱莉安娜衍生品計劃關於回報如何或什麼就是它？

And I think it's a combination of a couple of different factors on it. This is an earnings power slide to start with. So it's based on what your rate base is. I will tell you the great legislation that we've seen in Texas on allows us to file a grid resiliency filing and to kind of think about that. That's a three year filing and we'll file ours midyear. We booked 450 million in that as you kind of think of the timing that's coming in over that space in a period of time in 26, 27, 28. So it kind of fits into that arena. I will tell you that Florida and 50 million because you have to do a study is a conservative number. We'll do this study and file its mid-year and expect rates to go into effect in 2025. I think there's some other things out there as we kind of think about our rate case cadence in New Mexico and that forward-looking element associated with it and kind of head down that path. And then one of the questions you always ask is what's the upside to the upside and in Texas. I mean, there's things that we kind of hit on in our as we kind of talked when we were going through the presentation, but to the temporary mobile generation isn't in our capital plan. That would be a potential that's out there as well as the West Texas planning process, which is wherein the hard-core center of that West Texas planning process are caught in the process of designing what's needed at this point and then we'll have the opportunity to weigh in associated with that.

我認為這是幾個不同因素的結合。首先，這是獲利能力的下滑。所以這取決於您的費率基礎。我會告訴你，我們在德克薩斯州看到的偉大立法允許我們提交電網彈性文件並對此進行思考。這是一個為期三年的申請，我們將在年中提交我們的申請。我們預訂了 4.5 億美元，你可以想像一下 26、27、28 年一段時間內進入該空間的時間。所以它有點適合那個領域。我會告訴你，佛羅裡達州有 5000 萬，因為你必須做一項研究，這是一個保守的數字。我們將進行這項研究並在年中提交報告，預計費率將於 2025 年生效。我認為，當我們思考新墨西哥州的利率案件節奏以及與之相關的前瞻性因素並沿著這條道路走下去時，還有其他一些事情。然後你總是問的問題之一是德州的上行空間是什麼。我的意思是，我們在進行演示時談到了一些事情，但臨時移動一代並不在我們的資本計劃中。這將是西德克薩斯州規劃過程中存在的潛力，其中西德克薩斯州規劃過程的核心中心被困在設計此時所需內容的過程中，然後我們將擁有與此相關的權衡機會。

So Got it. And the upside of the upside here, especially with the mobile, Jan, et cetera. I mean, is that's a 24 item that you would expect to kind of come more into view?

所以明白了。還有好處中的好處，尤其是行動裝置、Jan 等。我的意思是，這是您希望更多人看到的 24 項內容嗎？

You would see a lot of these that they kind of ramp up as they get later in the period. And I think that's the important piece. But the mobile generation, the rules probably will be defined. They haven't been defined yet. They'll probably be defined by the end of the year and then you'll be able to see kind of what's added at that point in time.

你會看到很多這樣的東西，他們在這個時期後期會逐漸增加。我認為這是最重要的部分。但到了移動一代，規則可能會被定義。它們還沒有被定義。它們可能會在今年年底定義，然後您將能夠看到當時添加的內容。

Wonderful. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Best of luck. We'll see soon.

精彩的。太感謝了。欣賞它。祝你好運。我們很快就會看到。

Thank you. You too, Julien.

謝謝。你也是，朱利安。

Anthony Crowdell, Mizuho.

安東尼克勞德爾，瑞穗。

Hey, good morning. I'm just going to. Great. Great. You guys are back. I just want to jump on some of Julian's questions, if I could take apart. One, if I think if you move the earnings growth from five to six or seven rate base growth stay the same and no change in equity needs.

嗨，早安。我正要去。偉大的。偉大的。你們回來了。如果可以的話，我只想回答朱利安的一些問題。第一，如果我認為如果你將獲利成長從五提高到六或七，則基礎成長率保持不變，並且股票需求沒有變化。

What was the driver from going from 5% growth to six to seven is just a roll forward to one of the outer years that I guess Julie was hitting on or is it an improved earnings or ROE in the plan?

從 5% 增長到 6% 到 7% 的驅動因素是什麼？只是向前滾動到我猜朱莉正在考慮的外部年份之一，還是計劃中收益或 ROE 的改善？

Well, I'll let Louis go through the details, Anthony, but part of it was just we reset to 2024, right? Finally, we were able to optimize some of the regulatory lag and some of the rate cases and the ROEs in there. So I'll let Lisa talk a little bit more of it. That was really the main couple of drivers.

好吧，我會讓路易斯詳細介紹一下，安東尼，但其中一部分只是我們重置到 2024 年，對嗎？最後，我們能夠優化一些監管滯後和一些利率案例以及其中的淨資產收益率。所以我會讓麗莎多說一點。這確實是主要的驅動因素。

Yes, I agree, the impact is the main driver is the rebasing of 2024, but we've also gotten more certainty on after the PNM rate case. And so we're on be able to put forth a plan both in terms of financing and an office solidified as a rate base growth that you see here. And that's really where we arrive to the 6% to 7%.

是的，我同意，影響是主要驅動因素是 2024 年的基準調整，但在 PNM 利率案例之後我們也獲得了更多確定性。因此，我們能夠在融資和辦公室方面提出一項計劃，並將其作為您在此處看到的利率基礎增長。這確實是我們達到 6% 到 7% 的地方。

Great. And then I know you guys are focused on the balance sheet. I know you have a targeted payout ratio. I'm just wondering, do you have a targeted FFO-to-debt ratio?

偉大的。然後我知道你們都專注在資產負債表。我知道你有一個目標支付率。我只是想知道，你們有目標 FFO 與債務比率嗎？

Yes, that they have other vessel, I mean versus the 13% that Moody's and 14% the S&P.

是的，他們有其他船隻，我的意思是與穆迪的 13% 和標準普爾的 14% 相比。

Great. And then just lastly, Pat, if I could put you on the hot seat here. But when we roll back the clock a couple of years and think of the driver of maybe what I've got the Company and the Board to maybe seek a larger platform in that merger to mean it if those conditions still exist today, I mean, the company has a great plan that they've unveiled and it really highlights the growth in Texas. But just wondering when you think about what the drivers that maybe cause the company to look for a bigger platform, a bigger balance sheet.

偉大的。最後，帕特，如果我能讓你陷入困境的話。但當我們把時間倒退幾年，想想我讓公司和董事會在這次合併中尋求更大平台的驅動因素時，如果這些條件今天仍然存在，我的意思是，該公司公佈了一項偉大的計劃，它確實凸顯了德克薩斯州的成長。但只是想知道，當你思考什麼驅動因素可能會導致公司尋找更大的平台、更大的資產負債表。

And then when you look at it today initially, what we're sort of here in our immunology, deep breath phase because it's been about what, five weeks and since the deal broke and but what I would tell you that I believe and the Board believes in the management team believes is that the size is still important in this world and the opportunity to access to cheaper capital to access in a material supplies. Employee opportunities is still there. And we frame that strategic rationale up against market conditions, right? We look at where interest rates are and equity values are. And then we need to see I think anybody would need to see a back pattern from the commission in New Mexico that they're kind of changing the way that they are thinking. So when the Board when the Board talks about it, that's what we're balancing.

然後，當你今天最初看到它時，我們在免疫學、深呼吸階段處於什麼狀態，因為它是關於什麼，五週，自從交易破裂以來，但我會告訴你我相信和董事會管理團隊相信的是，規模在這個世界上仍然很重要，並且有機會獲得更便宜的資本來獲得材料供應。員工機會仍然存在。我們根據市場條件製定策略原理，對吧？我們關注利率和股票價值的情況。然後我們需要看到我認為任何人都需要看到新墨西哥州委員會的回饋模式，他們正在改變他們的思維方式。因此，當董事會討論這個問題時，這就是我們正在平衡的問題。

Great. Thanks so much for taking my questions and appreciate the detail.

偉大的。非常感謝您提出我的問題並欣賞詳細資訊。

Thank you, Anthony.

謝謝你，安東尼。

Ryan Levine, Citi.

瑞安‧萊文，花旗銀行。

Morning. Hey, everybody. In terms of the $6.1 billion CapEx outlook, I mean, clearly you're pursuing a number of incremental investment opportunities that could bring that higher spending way, provide some color around how big that number can be in the backdrop of the regulatory and commercial opportunities you're pursuing?

早晨。嘿，大家。就61 億美元的資本支出前景而言，我的意思是，顯然您正在尋求一些增量投資機會，這些機會可以帶來更高的支出方式，並提供一些關於在監管和商業機會的背景下這個數字有多大的色彩。你在追求嗎？

You know, I mean, I'm not going to throw a number out, but I will tell you kind of the categories that are associated with it and they're primarily in Texas and there around the temporary mobile gen that we talked a little bit about. Again, we need to see that the plan defined or the rules defined, and then we'll we'll have a better feel the system resiliency right now we have 450 million in the capital budget. I will tell you that's a conservative number based on what we think that grid resiliency study will come out to be West Texas planning. It's kind of in that process of the way that works as customers provide their what they anticipate their load to be to Ercot and then Ercot kind of has to develop what is what is needed. The great thing about that is that's in West Texas, in the core of our area.

你知道，我的意思是，我不會拋出一個數字，但我會告訴你與之相關的類別，它們主要在德克薩斯州，以及我們談論過的臨時移動一代。有點關於。同樣，我們需要看到已定義的計劃或已定義的規則，然後我們將更好地感受到系統的彈性，目前我們有 4.5 億的資本預算。我會告訴你，這是一個保守的數字，基於我們認為電網彈性研究將成為西德州規劃的結果。在這個過程中，客戶向 Ercot 提供他們預期的負載，然後 Ercot 必須開發所需的內容。最棒的是它位於德克薩斯州西部，我們地區的核心。

And then on the New Mexico side, because we really haven't addressed that. Lisa alluded to this a little bit, but you know, we always tried to balance rates, customer rates with our capital budget, but we see low growth associated with new customers. That's where I think you would see additional capital that was invested both on the resource side, but definitely on the transmission and distribution side as we kind of look at it, that. So those are the factors that we look at as we kind of look at our capital budget.

然後是新墨西哥州這邊，因為我們確實還沒有解決這個問題。麗莎稍微提到了這一點，但你知道，我們總是試圖平衡費率、客戶費率與我們的資本預算，但我們看到與新客戶相關的低成長。我認為這就是您會看到額外資本投資於資源方面的地方，但絕對是投資於輸電和配電方面的，正如我們所看到的那樣。這些就是我們在考慮資本預算時所考慮的因素。

Thanks. And then a couple more modeling questions. In terms of '24, was there any one-time gains included in near '24 guidance around decommissioning trust or anything related to that.

謝謝。然後還有幾個建模問題。就「24」而言，在「24」附近圍繞退役信託或與之相關的任何事項的指導中是否包含任何一次性收益。

And no, I mean, there's no one-time included in our forecast and then the guidance appreciate the clarity there.

不，我的意思是，我們的預測中沒有一次性包含在內，然後指導意見就明確了這一點。

In terms of the junior sub opportunity on $1 billion credit or $1 billion refi. How much incremental EPS do you think that opportunity presents in terms of your financial modeling or are or I guess on the flip side to the extent you're not a you don't go in that period. Would you how would that impact your EPS outlook?

就 10 億美元信貸或 10 億美元再融資的初級子機會而言。您認為就您的財務模型而言，機會會帶來多少增量每股收益，或者我猜在另一方面，如果您在那段時間不去的話。這會對您的每股盈餘前景產生什麼影響？

It's Ryan. I think the junior subs for us is really a great vehicle and efficient way too, reach both our objective for earnings growth and also support our credit metrics. And with the potential earnings power slide, we really put out a lot of details for you on to model. So I think that that answers your question.

是瑞安。我認為初級替補對我們來說確實是一個很好的工具和有效的方式，既可以實現我們的獲利成長目標，也可以支持我們的信用指標。隨著潛在的盈利能力下滑，我們確實為您提供了許多建模細節。所以我認為這回答了你的問題。

There's actually there's a range of numbers in there, so you can model. So we've put some bookends in there for you is how I'd say it. Yes.

實際上那裡有一系列數字，所以你可以建模。所以我們為你放了一些書擋，我是這麼說的。是的。

Okay. Great. Appreciate the questions and the answers. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。感謝問題和答案。謝謝。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

Paul Fremont, Ladenburg Thalmann & Co.

保羅‧弗里蒙特、拉登堡塔爾曼公司

Hey. Good morning. Congratulations on a on a good print. I kick off really two questions. One on incremental investment income over and above what's in your current forecast? What should we assume is the equity percent to finance that?

嘿。早安.恭喜您獲得良好的印刷效果。我先提出兩個問題。一項是關於超出您目前預測的增量投資收入？我們應該假設融資的股權百分比是多少？

We really think about equity to supporting our growth. So if we do have additional investments, we will finance that in a balanced way. And we're probably looking at that 40% to 50% equity as we add incremental capital.

我們真正考慮公平來支持我們的成長。因此，如果我們確實有額外的投資，我們將以平衡的方式提供資金。當我們增加增量資本時，我們可能會考慮 40% 到 50% 的股權。

Okay. And that would be above your current CapEx guidance range, right?

好的。這將高於您目前的資本支出指導範圍，對嗎？

That would be above our current equity or planned equity issuance yet.

這將高於我們目前的股權或計劃的股權發行。

And then just to follow up on on a on another question that was asked earlier with respect to considering strategic options, is there a point at which sort of the Board needs to decide whether that is going to be sort of an ongoing effort or whether that effort is terminated? How should we think about?

然後，為了跟進先前提出的關於考慮策略選擇的另一個問題，是否需要由哪種類型的董事會來決定這是否是一項持續的努力，或者是否是一項持續的努力？努力被終止？我們該如何思考？

You know, if I if I had always been kind of an ongoing effort and we reassess every year the the the market outlook, the landscape of the industry, our positions, the boards of directors that have fiduciary duty are looking at it constantly on if the time is right, the time is right. And it's not right, it's not right, but you always look.

你知道，如果我一直在不斷努力，我們每年都會重新評估市場前景、產業格局、我們的立場，負有信託責任的董事會會不斷地關注這個問題時機成熟了，時機成熟了。這不對，不對，但你總是看。

Great. That's it for me. Thank you so much.

偉大的。對我來說就是這樣。太感謝了。

Thanks, Paul.

謝謝，保羅。

And this will conclude our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Pat Vincent-Collawn for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回帕特·文森特·科洛恩（Pat Vincent-Collan）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Linda, and thank you all for joining us this morning, and we're looking forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks. Please stay safe and remember to everyone a complement today. Thank you.

謝謝琳達，感謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們期待在未來幾週見到你們中的許多人。請注意安全，並記得今天給大家補充。謝謝。

Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。