Tata Motors Ltd (TTM) 2015 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Tata Motors Q1 FY15 results conference call hosted by Kotak Institutional Equities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Hitesh Goel from Kotak Institutional Equities. Thank you and over to you.

  • Hitesh Goel - Analyst

  • Thanks, Mohsin. I welcome the management of Tata Motors for 1Q FY15 earnings con call. We have with us Mr. Ramakrishnan, CFO of Tata Motors along with the Investor Relations team, which is headed by Mr. Vijay Somaiya. I would now like to hand over the call to Mr. Ramakrishnan for opening remarks. Over to you, sir.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Thank you, Hitesh. Thanks for hosting this call and thanks for all the participants joining in. A short while ago we announced the Q1 financial year 2014-2015 results for Tata Motors consolidated, standalone, and Jaguar Land Rover. I will quickly run through some of the numbers and highlights. Many of you might already be familiar with this.

  • At a consolidated level, Tata Motors grew. The net revenue came in at INR55,000 crores (sic - see slide 4, INR64,683 crores), up from INR46,000 crores in the same Q1 period last year. EBITDA margin came at 18.2%, up from 14.5% last year and profit after-tax at the consolidated level INR5,400 crores, up from INR1,700 crores. The Tata Motors India business however continued to be impacted by the macro conditions here. Net revenue was down at INR7,700 crores, down from INR9,100 crores in the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin came in again at negative 2.8% compared to positive of 2.3% in the same period last year. However, lower significantly than the Q4 that is the immediately preceding quarter EBITDA margin which came in at negative 6% with certain incremental writedowns that we had to take.

  • After accounting for JLR, Jaguar Land Rover, dividend in June; profit after-tax for TML standalone came in at INR394 crores. Jaguar Land Rover, the numbers I'm reading out are as per IFRS financials in British pounds. Net revenue was GBP5.3 billion, up from GBP4 billion in the first quarter of last year. EBITDA margin came in at 20.3%, up from 15.8% last year. And profit after-tax GBP693 million, up from GBP304 million same quarter last year. In terms of balance sheet and debt/equity ratio, at a consolidated level excluding the finance receivables in the Tata Motor Finance business, the automotive business between Tata Motors and Jaguar Land Rover, the net automotive debt/equity was at 0.09. At TML standalone level, it was higher at 0.73 and at Jaguar Land Rover, the net debt was negative.

  • As far as Tata Motors business is concerned, the overall demand factor in the industry, the macroeconomic factor continued to impact the demand for the entire CV industry including ourselves. The light commercial and small commercial vehicles continued to be significantly impacted due to external factors and also more recently due to financial pulling of their automotive financing focus. Passenger vehicle industry witnessed some revival on the back of growth in demand from rural and semi-urban areas. However, our passenger vehicle business, the Company underperformed to some extent mainly due to inventory correction factor across our channel from providing the base for the Zest launch shortly.

  • For the industry, marketing spend continues to remain high. In medium and heavy trucks, our market share continues to remain strong at 54%. In commercial vehicle business, we launched the all-new range of Tata ULTRA trucks in the quarter in the intermediate and light commercial vehicle range between payload 5 tons and 15 tonnes. In passenger vehicle, we launched the all-new Aria with the VARICOR 2.2 liter engine and other value-added features. In terms of Jaguar Land Rover business, wholesale and retail volume Q1 stood at almost the same 115,000, up 27% and 22% respectively from the same period last year. EBITDA margin, which I reported a short while ago, at 20.3% reflected the wholesale volume increase, richer market mix with solid sales in emerging markets, rich product mix supported by the ongoing continued success of Range Rover Sport, Range Rover, and Jaguar F-TYPE.

  • In Jaguar Land Rover, we continue to invest as we had indicated earlier in product development and capital expenditure and for the quarter, the spend was about GBP682 million. Free cash flow after the CapEx spend stood marginally positive at GBP5 million. Cash and financial deposits on the balance sheet of Jaguar Land Rover stood at a healthy GBP3.3 billion. And as I said earlier, Jaguar Land Rover paid a dividend of GBP150 million in June. Looking forward in commercial vehicle business in India, we see positive investment and business sentiment picking up and supporting the demand for some of the segments, notably the medium and heavy trucks. M&HCV is showing improvement even though it is on a small base compared to last year and we expect the trend will continue and we will see some further momentum particularly in the second half.

  • Similarly in M&HCV buses, we expect the JNNURM Phase 2 orders will also drive the bus volumes up. We continue to believe that we have a very compelling and the widest product range in our commercial vehicle business with the new launches across Prima and Ultra range of vehicles, refreshes and variants in small commercial vehicles and pickups. We believe this will provide a strong foundation for our growth when the demand picks up in the market. In commercial vehicle, export growth will continue to be of high focus. We entered Philippines automotive market in Q1 and Malaysia and Vietnam will follow. Passenger vehicles, you would know that we launched the Nano Twist, Vista VXTech, and all-new Tata Aria in the last few months and we are awaiting the significant launch of the Zest in a short while from now.

  • For Zest, the response has been extremely encouraging and very positive from auto journalists, auto enthusiasts, media, and leading financiers who have seen and tested the product. Our product portfolio in passenger vehicles have been finalized and received the Board approval short while ago, which is a program running up to 2020, which demonstrates our commitment to improve this business significantly. As in commercial vehicles, we'll continue to focus on some of the opportunities available in the export market for our passenger vehicle [reserve]. Jaguar Land Rover, the sales momentum is continuing to build up for both the brands as we have seen in some of the earlier quarters.

  • We are preparing for the launch of new Discovery Sport, Jaguar XE, the new family of 2-liter engine in the new engine plant, and the new China JV will commence manufacturing between now and the end of the year. Our thrust in terms of product investment and capital expenditure will continue in Jaguar Land Rover and we expect for the year the spend will be in the region of GBP3.5 billion to GBP3.7 billion and we will continue to monitor economic and sales trends to balance sales and production and focus on profitable growth and strong operating cash flows to support the investment.

  • With this short introduction, I'll stop here and throw the floor open for any questions that you may have.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Vinay Singh, Morgan Stanley.

  • Vinay Singh - Analyst

  • Congratulations for a very good set of numbers. Questions are pertaining more to the JLR side of the business. Could you give us a sense of within JLR other expenses, what were the realized ForEx gains? And secondly, again relating other expenses only, I have seen that sequentially they have come down sharply so what really drove that? That'll be the first question.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Picking up the second question first, as you see volume growth and revenue growth are building up, you'll definitely see some of these percentages coming down. Some of the expenses are launch related or follow-through expenses have also been not witnessed in this quarter so there's no major one-off gain or anything of that nature, but it's more a momentum and this revenue growth driving some of the expenses percentages that are looking much better. In terms of realized foreign exchange gains, Vijay?

  • Vijay Somaiya - Head of IR & Treasury

  • GBP77 million in the quarter.

  • Vinay Singh - Analyst

  • Okay, sir. Then if I compare with the third quarter December quarter, your volumes are broadly the same as December quarter, your other expenses are down. So when the regional mix improves like this quarter you've had a very sharp increase of China, does it also mean lesser marketing expenses or the other expenses go down or is this only relating to pre-launch or something that is not there this quarter?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • You're right, but more than regional mix, I think there has been also a factor of the richer product mix as well. The numbers and the volumes may not convey it fully. The demand has been more towards much higher-end products across markets and the growth and the full factor in the market across the globe has been quite healthy. That contributes more both towards richer product mix within the same brands as well as lower expenses in terms of marketing expenses. You're quite right, but I would just add the product mix and product content to the factor that you mentioned earlier.

  • Vinay Singh - Analyst

  • And just last question on China as a percentage of shares, how do you see that panning out for the rest of the year?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • It's difficult to predict. We see growth in practically all the markets and the growth in other emerging markets in Asia also has been very encouraging. We have done fairly well in US and even in Europe, which has faced some challenging situations, we have seen some growth. So, we see strong demand full across the globe. It will be a question of allocation and managing the demand and balancing it across the globe. But we do see momentum across our product range. The products have done quite well; the Range Rover, the Range Rover Sport, Evoque continues to have a strong pull.

  • Vinay Singh - Analyst

  • My question was more because we've always had very strong demand, but the management internally seems has a target about how much they want to send to each market. Like in this quarter we have seen USA was actually declining and China growing. So to that extent, what level of China as a percentage of sales are you targeting?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • No, I would not be able to comment on that. It will be difficult to comment on it on a quarterly basis.

  • Vinay Singh - Analyst

  • More like an annual basis, what are you sort of looking at China --?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I would not be drawn into predicting demand and sales numbers and allocation. It's a function about the --.

  • Vinay Singh - Analyst

  • Okay, sir. Thanks a lot and congratulations again.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Kapil Singh, Nomura Securities.

  • Kapil Singh - Analyst

  • Congrats. My first question is regarding your volumes. Is it that at this point of time there is a significant constraint because of which markets like US are being starved? And in light of that, how do you see the phasing out of capacity expansion if you could help us understand that?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • We are continuing to invest in parallel in capacity and the capacity in UK and elsewhere are being focused on very shortly during the year itself towards the end of the year, the China capacity will also come onstream and over time, that should relieve some of the UK capacities as well. Since we do see demand fairly strong across markets, it definitely gives us an ability to manage the product content and the market demand and balance of our production in line with that. But yes, you're right. In parallel, we are also continuing to invest in our full capacity expansion.

  • Kapil Singh - Analyst

  • Sir, any numbers you can share like what kind of capacities would you target and when they would start coming in UK for example, is it September or December? And FY15, FY16, FY17 end; what kind of capacities you would look at?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • It will be difficult to give a time and a present number other than saying it's a continuous one. We have been expanding capacities in the last two or three years since 2010 and we'll continue to do so.

  • Kapil Singh - Analyst

  • Okay. And sir, secondly, there has been a lot of news flow from the Chinese market regarding discussions with the regulator et cetera. Is there further ongoing discussions happening with them or that issue has been closed for now?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • We continue to engage with the authorities not only in China, elsewhere wherever we do business we have a healthy relationship and dialogue in the various markets including in China. Yes, in China, we have had the discussions jointly in terms of the market and given the focus that we have on the China market, the price reduction that we have announced on three of our products will definitely help us become much more market competitive. As far as whether it is ongoing where there will be further, I'm not in a position to say, it all depends on the ongoing discussions with the authority. It's not possible to predict that.

  • Kapil Singh - Analyst

  • Right, sir. I just wanted to check whether it is still ongoing or not so I think --.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I understand your question. It's a dialogue that we'll continue to have. It's difficult to predict.

  • Kapil Singh - Analyst

  • Understood, sir. Thanks, sir. I'll follow-up in the queue.

  • Operator

  • Hitesh Goel, Kotak Institutional Equities.

  • Hitesh Goel - Analyst

  • Sir, this is just continuing on Kapil's question. We were reading that the Chinese authorities are worried about the excess pricing that is charged in China versus UK. But how do they look at pricing because in UK you would be giving discounts as well? So just wanted to understand how they are looking at the premium in the Chinese market and it should be market determined in my view. What is the view of the authorities in that?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I don't think it's appropriate for me to comment on how the authorities will look at or given the exposition on it. Pricing in China not only for us, for all manufacturers tends to be higher, there is a factor of high content of duties et cetera. So, it's an ongoing dialogue. It will not be appropriate for me to predict how they should be looking at or how they look at, et cetera. It's not a question that I can address so easily.

  • Hitesh Goel - Analyst

  • Okay. Sir, can you also tell us what would be the starting capacity on China and how will it ramp up in FY15 just to get a sense on FY15?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • This year?

  • Hitesh Goel - Analyst

  • Yes, FY15. I mean how will it ramp up in FY15 and FY16?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • That's what I thought. Because the production start-up will be sometime in the later part of this year, towards the end of this calendar year. As we announced and I think I also shared with all of you earlier in the first phase, the China capacity is expected to be around 130,000 vehicles, which is mainly intended for three of our models; the Evoque, the Freelander, and JXF. And from start-up production to reach full 130,000 capacity, I would think it will be about year-and-a-half to two years.

  • Hitesh Goel - Analyst

  • Okay, sir. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Aditya Makharia, JPMorgan.

  • Aditya Makharia - Analyst

  • Just on the India business, you did mention that you are seeing volumes expected to improve into the second half. In terms of profitability, we have seen the losses come down, but margins yet remain negative. So when could we expect a potential breakeven or maybe even a recovery?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • First of all, Aditya, did you send me a text message a short while ago?

  • Aditya Makharia - Analyst

  • Yes, sir.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Thank you very much for the message. India business as I said earlier, we do see some positive momentum and numbers picking up in M&HC, medium and heavy trucks. In general if you take that as a lead indictor for a turnaround in the industry or the overall economic factors, it's a good sign; but I must caution that it is off a small base last year and we have seen that trend for about two, three months now so one hopes it is consistent and will continue. In parallel, we have also seen some friction coming back into the [freight] as well no longer going down, stable or marginally increasing in some sectors. If you take a combination of all these, we do expect that this momentum hopefully should continue.

  • I would think that we would see a greater impact of this maybe in the second half of the year and perhaps more sharply in Q4. We will definitely see some impact of this in Q3, but I think more will be in Q4 and onwards. On the other parts of commercial vehicle, as a general principle I would say the small commercial vehicles would normally be later in going down. When big trucks fall, the small commercial vehicle demand continues to have some momentum for some more time, then they start tapering down. When the recovery starts, I think we have seen the impact on medium and heavy commercial vehicles and I think the small commercial vehicles should follow maybe within a couple of quarters thereafter.

  • Aditya Makharia - Analyst

  • Okay. And just in JLR, could you quantify the impact of the strengthening GBP in this quarter's numbers?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • It's difficult to talk about the current strengthening of the GBP because as you know, we also had shared with you some of our forward cover and hedge programs that we have. For the immediate quarter at any point of time, we will be covered almost 60%, 70% in terms of our forward covers and hedge exposure. But in general, you're right, GBP strengthening is not good for the business because a good part of our revenue is in dollar terms. But the immediate impact is somewhat masked by the hedge and the forward cover that we have in place.

  • Aditya Makharia - Analyst

  • Okay. So, fair to say that we'll see the impact in the coming quarters?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Into the future quarters.

  • Aditya Makharia - Analyst

  • Thanks, sir.

  • Operator

  • Robin Zhu, Bernstein.

  • Robin Zhu - Analyst

  • Congrats on a very good set of results. Will we see significant starting costs in fiscal Q3 or for Q4 for the JV and for the Jaguar XE? I mean you're starting multiple brands, is that going to lead to any sort of one-time costs as a result? And my second question is last year in Q2 we saw these weird sort of local incentives, is that going to repeat next quarter or is that going to be a one-shot deal?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I think there were two or three questions mixed up in that. I think the first question was with the China JV starting production, will there be a significant impact of the start-up costs, et cetera on Jaguar Land Rover's bottom line. The start-up costs et cetera associated with the JV will be in the JV book so I'm not sure whether I understood the question correctly. It will be in the JV's book in terms of expenses or any --.

  • Robin Zhu - Analyst

  • But you will source the equity income from the JV so if there was a loss on the JV, then --?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Yes, there would be some impact of that surely. And similarly when you have a major launch program in a quarter whether it is XE or other models that we have been talking about, yes, we would have one-time launch expenses et cetera coming into the Q3 and Q4.

  • Robin Zhu - Analyst

  • Could you quantify these impacts?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • No, I don't think I'll be able to quantify at this stage. I think the other question, the last question was I couldn't follow that clearly. Can you please repeat that?

  • Robin Zhu - Analyst

  • The local incentives booked in Q2 FY14, I mean management guided for it to be various subsidies at this national sales company level? Is that going to repeat next quarter?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • You're talking about the local VAT and other incentives. Yes, there would be some of that coming in the coming quarters; but not very material or significant in nature.

  • Robin Zhu - Analyst

  • Okay. And just one last follow-up. I mean you mentioned that the hedging gain was GBP77 million in Q1 and you have 70% coverage on your hedging books. So does that mean that the actual sort of sequential FX headwind was around GBP100 million, GBP110 million, is that reasonable?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • No. The GBP77 million is the realized gain in our hedge book.

  • Robin Zhu - Analyst

  • But you're 70% covered so the organic sort of FX loss or FX due to sequential effects, was that GBP100 million?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I'm not sure with the arithmetic. Can we take it offline separately please?

  • Robin Zhu - Analyst

  • Sure, okay. That's all. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Srinath Krishnan, Sundaram Mutual Fund.

  • Srinath Krishnan - Analyst

  • Sir, during FY14 you had a publicity expense of about GBP775 million for JLR. So with entering into new segment, XE entering into new segment, do you think as a percentage of sales we'll be increasing marginally from here or how do you look at this publicity expenditure?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • It will go up. We are talking about entering newer segments and launching newer products; some three, four programs are coming in together in this year in particular and also in the future years. I don't comment in terms of percentage of turnover because that's the forecast of the revenue. But yes, the publicity and the brand building and fixed marketing expenses will tend to go on.

  • Srinath Krishnan - Analyst

  • So since it's a pretty large amount, it's about 4% to 4.5% of sales, was it significantly lower during the quarter?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • In this April-June quarter, yes.

  • Srinath Krishnan - Analyst

  • Okay. So it's just timing, is it? For the forthcoming quarters, it could just reverse?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Yes.

  • Srinath Krishnan - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you, sir.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Actually you have said it much better here.

  • Srinath Krishnan - Analyst

  • I'm done. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Sonal Gupta, UBS.

  • Sonal Gupta - Analyst

  • Sir, just coming back to a couple of clarifications on the JLR side. So China, I mean we've seen some other manufacturers take adjustments on the spare part prices, have you made any adjustments on your end as well?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • As and when we make any corrections or any adjustments as we have done, we will make the necessary announcements. It will not be possible or appropriate to comment on this ongoing discussion.

  • Sonal Gupta - Analyst

  • Okay. And sir, could you just talk about on the MHCV side, how have the discounting trends progressed on a sequential basis in Q1 versus Q4 of last year and then any price increases that you've taken in MHCVs or LCVs?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I'll take the second question first. Yes, we have taken the price increase on M&HCV; one price increase as of April 1 that is cutting across almost all our product lines, which was about 1% which is on April 1 and one now on July 1. These are the two. As we have done in the past, we have taken these two quarterly price increases. It terms of discount, while it continues to remain high, yes, I think we are seeing some discount levels coming up on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

  • Sonal Gupta - Analyst

  • Okay. And sir, last question is on your financing. Tata Motors Finance has posted a loss of roughly INR100 crores this quarter and they have previously shown very high NPA levels. So I just want to understand how do you plan to see, I mean do you need to sort of inject significant amount of capital into this company given the NPA levels and the deteriorating numbers?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Let me put it the other way now. Yes, the NPA levels as we have seen in other parts of the auto financing in particular in financing companies and banks in general, the NPA levels have increased for everyone. In Tata Motor Finance considering a lot of their focus is on first-time users and promoting some of the segment-leading products; if you remember a few years ago, Tata Motor Finance along with Tata Motors helped us in launching the Tata Ace in the market itself and their market share in Tata Ace in the first-time user segment used to be very, very high. So, they also support in many of the FTU segments and other segment-leading initiatives so the NPA levels in Tata Motor Finance have tended to be somewhat higher. They are putting together a series of measures for bringing it down and tightening their collections and attacking this high NPA level.

  • Apart from that in terms of equity injection, if it were to be a function of their growth, they cater to on an average about 20% to 25% of the total sales in Tata Motors, that's the market share they have and they remain a captive financier. To the extent of incremental sales in Tata Motors into the market, their (inaudible) growth will have to be together with the equity injection from time-to-time. If I remember right, last year we injected totally about INR300 crores of equity for 2013-2014 and annually yes, there will be injection of equity but more to support the growth in Tata Motor Finance's portfolio. Their portfolio stands today at well over INR20,000 crores, which have been built to this level in the last five, six years and continuing to grow.

  • Sonal Gupta - Analyst

  • Okay, sir. Thank you so much.

  • Operator

  • Jamshed Dadabhoy, Citigroup.

  • Jamshed Dadabhoy - Analyst

  • Sir, could you give some details on the Ingenium engines at the Volvo Hampton plant? What is the capacity? And these engines, are they going to be additive i.e. only on new models or will they replace any of your current engine line-up?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • That's a good question. The plant is intended to have a capacity of 250,000 engines annually. I think I have said before it will have both gasoline and diesel versions in a couple of configurations. It will be for the newer models and gradually it will also fill in some of the requirements for the running models. Eventually we see that this engine content in our total vehicle portfolio to be on the increase over a period of time.

  • Jamshed Dadabhoy - Analyst

  • So what can the ultimate capacity be, sir? Instead of 250,000, could we look at it going to say 500,000 in three years?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I wouldn't want to put a time horizon to this. If you recall at one point of time, we also talked about setting up a second capacity somewhere else if possible in India, et cetera. We are looking at some options. But right now, focus will be to start this engine capacity and introduce it on various vehicle programs and we will add as and when the demand justifies further expansion of capacity.

  • Jamshed Dadabhoy - Analyst

  • Okay. Second question, on the China pricing angle.

  • Vijay Somaiya - Head of IR & Treasury

  • Jamshed, that was the fourth question.

  • Jamshed Dadabhoy - Analyst

  • Second issue. Could you give us a sense of what buying behavior is like? If you cut prices at that extremely high end by say 10%, 15%, what is the impact that you see or you think will happen on volumes? Is there elasticity of demand or not really at that price point?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I'm not sure that I am competent to answer that and also to put down in specific quantitative terms. And next you will ask me is by how much percentage will the volumes grow up because of this. It's not a scientific or engineering equation. Definitely with the reduction in prices and a comparable set, the product should become more competitive. It also sends a signal in terms of our customer focus and wanting to respond to the market and the other requirements. And I'm not sure that there is a formula I can tell you that with this price reduction, the volume will go up by x percentage. But yes, I think there will be a greater pull in the market in general.

  • Jamshed Dadabhoy - Analyst

  • Okay. I'll come back, sir. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Sahil Kedia, Barclays.

  • Sahil Kedia - Analyst

  • Sir, we have always maintained that on JLR side we expect margins to be in that 14% to 16% EBITDA margin range, surely that change is now. What are you looking there in terms of a sustainable profitability given that what we've seen in Q1?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • The 14% to 16% is haunting me in every quarter. I think the margin performance commensurate to the volumes and the growth and the success of new models has been quite satisfying increasing in JLR. Rather than put a percentage, I think I'll answer it more in terms of the positive and the negative influences on the margins going forward. That will draw your own conclusions as to where it will be. We on our side would tend to be more cautious than optimistic and aggressive on this. With the expansion in the models and the platform model strategy, being able to introduce more and more vehicles in different white spaces of similar configuration or basic product configuration, I think we are able to influence the cost of the margins quite favorably.

  • I think I have also shared with you all earlier how the number of models in JLR in the marketplace is increasing at a time when the number of platforms are actually coming down. With various content sharing and configuration and architecture sharing across platforms and across models, the influence of the cost should be quite positive. As volumes build up, I think we'll also have a better say on our material costs and our negotiations with the suppliers. On the other side, the cost factors have been fairly benign in the last couple of years both on the material front and other on the component side. And in this industry, naturally you will have some operating leverage advantages as the volumes grow up sequentially like this. All this is good. On the other hand, I think we need to be cautious about the exchange front on which we have no control at all.

  • As it is in the last couple of years, we have seen the exchange move from 1.5, 1.55 range to 1.65, 1.7 range. That's one factor. And secondly, we have to be cautious about marketing expenses as well, variable marketing in particular. They have been fairly at the low end of the range in the recent past. As volumes build up, as you enter newer segments, there may be some pressure on the marketing expenses as well. Rather than give you a number, I would caution on both this. Our aim will be to grow with healthy margins not growth at any cost, growth with a focus on margins and operating cash flow generation to support our future programs. But beyond this, it's difficult to give a precise number or a range.

  • Sahil Kedia - Analyst

  • Sir, you mentioned that costs have been relatively benign. I just want to understand, sir, in that case why have our gross margins or our RMC to sales being largely range bound despite an improved product mix? Is there something here that we are missing or misreading here?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • It's difficult to comment on that on a quarterly basis. The leverage can come in a variety of line items. Where I said we operate, the material costs have been fairly benign. It also depends on the model mix in any particular quarter and the regional mix. But trending wise if you see the last couple of years, the material costs have been fairly under control.

  • Sahil Kedia - Analyst

  • But on a year-on-year basis, I mean the RMC to sales actually has gone up and also on a QonQ. So just wanted to understand are we missing something here because intuitively if your product mix is getting better which is reflected in higher profitability, ideally your contribution margins also should improve so just wanted to make sure that we are understanding this. Is there anything that we are missing here?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • So when we say product mix, even within a particular brand, the content mix can be favorable; but across brands, the mix can play slightly differently. If you have more of one particular model rather than the other particular model, it could make a difference.

  • Sahil Kedia - Analyst

  • One last question if I may. Can you just tell us what is your China distribution footprint currently and where do you intend to take it by the time your new JV starts to ramp up or thereabouts?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Taking from my memory, I think the current distribution footprint in terms of window to the customers is about 140 or so. I believe it has crossed 150 as we speak and it should cross about 200 plus within a short while.

  • Sahil Kedia - Analyst

  • So, short while would be probably close to the launch or the manufacturing starting?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • In this year.

  • Sahil Kedia - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you, sir. This is very helpful.

  • Operator

  • Govind Chellappa, Jefferies.

  • Govind Chellappa - Analyst

  • One, on the domestic side, can you comment about how the resale prices of heavy trucks are moving? Have we seen a sharp increase in the recent past commensurate with the small recovery that you're seeing? That's my first question.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • No, I don't think we have seen any sharp or otherwise increase in the resale price yet.

  • Govind Chellappa - Analyst

  • Okay. My second question was on China and two sub-questions to that. Would the variant mix of individual models in China be vastly superior to what you see in rest of the world?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Govind, can you repeat the question?

  • Govind Chellappa - Analyst

  • The variant mix within each model at this point in time, it did happen for example when you launched Evoque.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • The variant mix on a market-to-market basis?

  • Govind Chellappa - Analyst

  • Yes. Would it be much superior than China than rest of the world?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • My intuitive answer is yes, but I need to reconfirm that.

  • Govind Chellappa - Analyst

  • Okay. Now there have been lots of questions about China and I asked one as well. But I'll ask one that everybody is trying to figure out without having much hope on whether you will answer it or not. What proportion of your EBITDA comes from China right now?

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • I think you answered it for me.

  • Govind Chellappa - Analyst

  • Could you give us any guidance, sir? I mean that's pretty much the most important.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • We do not discuss. I need to be careful about the information that we share with everyone. We do not discuss marketwise profitability because there is so much in terms of cost allocation and so on, it will be difficult to talk about that and we do not do that.

  • Govind Chellappa - Analyst

  • Okay, sir. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, no further questions can be taken. I now hand the floor back to Mr. Hitesh Goel. Over to you.

  • Hitesh Goel - Analyst

  • Thanks you, Mohsin. I would like to thank Tata Motors management on giving us a chance to host this con call. Thank you very much.

  • C Ramakrishnan - President & CFO

  • Thank you. Thank you, everybody.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. On behalf of Kotak Institutional Equities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.