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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to Tata Motors Q3 FY '23 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by Mr. P. B. Balaji, Group CFO, Tata Motors; Mr. Girish Wagh, Executive Director, Tata Motor; Mr. Shailesh Chandra, MD-Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility Limited; Mr. Adrian Mardell, Interim CEO, Jaguar Land Rover; Mr. Richard Molyneux, Acting CFO, Jaguar Land Rover; and my colleagues from the Investor Relations team. Today, we plan to walk you through the earnings presentation followed by Q&A. (Operator Instructions)
大家好,歡迎參加塔塔汽車 23 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有塔塔汽車集團財務長 P. B. Balaji 先生;塔塔汽車公司執行董事 Girish Wagh 先生;塔塔汽車乘用車有限公司及塔塔乘用電動車有限公司董事總經理 Shailesh Chandra 先生;捷豹路虎臨時執行長 Adrian Mardell 先生;捷豹路虎代理財務長 Richard Molyneux 先生;以及投資人關係團隊的同事。今天,我們計劃帶您了解收益報告,然後進行問答。 (操作員指令)
I now hand over to Balaji to begin the presentation.
現在我把發言權交給巴拉吉 (Balaji)。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. Thank you. Once again, thanks everybody for taking the time to join the call. As it's customary, let's run through the deck as the reasonable clip, and thereafter spend as much time as possible on Q&A. So customary safe harbor statement, nothing -- no, nothing to report here, the normal one that is in segments, again, draw your attention to the changes that we have done over the last one year, so that's up here and there.
是的。謝謝。再次感謝大家抽空參加電話會議。按照慣例,讓我們以合理的速度瀏覽一遍卡片,然後花盡可能多的時間進行問答。因此,按照慣例,安全港聲明中沒有什麼可報告的,正常的聲明是分段的,再次提醒大家注意我們在過去一年中所做的改變,所以這就是這裡和那裡的情況。
Next slide, please. The quarter as such was a pretty intense quarter and I draw your attention to the Auto Expo, which I'm sure Shailesh and Girish will quickly touch upon their slides as well, a pretty intense affair and an exciting presentation from Tata Motors across the whole team of moving India and something that have been very well received in the market as well.
請看下一張投影片。本季度是一個非常緊張的季度,我請大家關注汽車博覽會,我相信 Shailesh 和 Girish 也會在他們的幻燈片上快速談及這個博覽會,這是一個非常緊張的展會,塔塔汽車整個印度移動團隊進行了一次激動人心的演示,在市場上也受到了熱烈歡迎。
We also completed the acquisition of the Ford facility in Sanand, and this was now completely -- they're now getting into the integration of employees there. We also issued a drawdown notice for the Tranche 2 of INR3,750 crores, $500 million to TPG Rise and the funds are expected to be received by end of January. And the JLR order book [redemption] and the semiconductor situation is something that Adrian is going to talk about.
我們也完成了對位於薩南德的福特工廠的收購,現在他們正在完全進入那裡的員工整合階段。我們也向 TPG Rise 發出了第二批 3,750 億印度盧比(5 億美元)的提款通知,預計這筆資金將於 1 月底收到。 Adrian 將要談論的是 JLR 訂單簿(贖回)和半導體的情況。
Next slide, please. Overall the quarter, a very satisfying performance with a revenue of INR88,500 crores, EBITDA was 11.1%, and profit before tax of exceptional items of INR3,200 crores, a growth of 22.5% and an EBITDA improvement of 90 bps and EBITDA improvement of 270 bps. The key callout here is that after a long time all the three auto verticals are actually profitable and improving their performance, and therefore that's driving the margin and FCF improvement that you see and we hope to sustain that in the coming quarters as well.
請看下一張投影片。整個季度的業績表現非常令人滿意,營收為 88,500 億印度盧比,EBITDA 為 11.1%,特殊項目稅前利潤為 3,200 億印度盧比,同比增長 22.5%,EBITDA 提高 90 個基點,EBITDA 提高 270 個基點。這裡的關鍵點是,經過很長一段時間,所有三個汽車垂直行業實際上都實現了盈利並且業績正在提高,因此推動了利潤率和自由現金流的改善,我們希望在未來幾個季度也能保持這種狀態。
Next slide, please. The source of growth, a lot of it coming from volume and mix, and of course, pricing starting to come through as well as they start taking pricing above and inflation starts stabilizing. Profitability improvement coming across JLR CV/PV, which is what I referred to earlier, and the only plain alignment is the losses we've taken in Tata Motors Finance, which is something which I'll talk about towards the end.
請看下一張投影片。成長的源泉,很大一部分來自於數量和組合,當然,隨著價格開始上漲並且通貨膨脹開始穩定,價格也開始實現上漲。我之前提到過,JLR CV/PV 的獲利能力有所提高,唯一明顯的不同就是我們在 Tata Motors Finance 遭受的損失,我將在最後談到這個。
Automotive debt down to INR57,500 crores. And the point that I'm sure there is a question that's going to come. In the case of JLR, we do see a stretch in meeting the net debt zero targets. So we will update, where we are on this in the end of March. Again, confident in TML India as far as that number is concerned, we should be able to get it to net zero there. So our intention is to work on all other areas as well.
汽車債務降至57,500億印度盧比。我確信肯定會有一個問題出現。就捷豹路虎而言,我們確實看到其在實現零淨債務目標方面存在一定差距。因此,我們將在三月底更新我們的進展。再次,就該數字而言,我們對 TML 印度有信心,我們應該能夠在那裡實現淨零排放。因此,我們的意圖也是在所有其他領域開展工作。
Next slide, please. So with this, let me hand you over to Adrian to take us through the presentation on JLR. Adrian, over to you.
請看下一張投影片。因此,現在讓我將話題交給 Adrian,讓他帶領我們了解 JLR 的情況。阿德里安,交給你了。
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Yes. Thanks, Balaji. Next slide, if you would, please. Okay, so these are our KPIs for the quarter, standard format you see versus last quarter and then the same quarter last year. Retails were slightly lower than last quarter. We'll get into the details of that a little bit later. We did improve significantly our deliveries of MLA units, Range Rover, Range Rover Sport. They principally get targeted to North America and to China. North America was actually up 34% quarter-over-quarter, and China was lower because of the COVID shutdowns is the punch line, but you'll see that more detail later.
是的。謝謝,巴拉吉。請播放下一張投影片。好的,這些是我們本季的 KPI,與上一季和去年同期相比,標準格式如下。零售額略低於上一季。稍後我們將詳細討論這一點。我們確實顯著提高了 MLA 車型、Range Rover 和 Range Rover Sport 的交付量。他們的主要目標市場是北美和中國。北美市場實際上環比增長了 34%,而中國市場由於新冠疫情導致的停工而出現下滑,這是個笑話,但您稍後會看到更多細節。
Revenue, because of that strengthening mix and the overall increase in wholesales, wholesales did actually increase by 5.7% versus last quarter, significant increase, significant improvement. You can see that above the GBP6 billion level and we anticipate being above GBP6 billion revenue for the foreseeable future. Of course, PBT with very strong breakeven points are still below 300,000 units annually, 75,000 units per quarter. In fact, they were down to 70,000 units in Q3. Half of that PBT number is actually a revaluation game on conversion of our dollar-denominated debt mostly. And we'll get into that in later slides.
收入,由於產品組合的加強和批發業務的整體增長,批發業務實際上比上一季度增長了 5.7%,這是顯著的增長,是顯著的改善。您可以看到,收入超過了 60 億英鎊,而且我們預計在可預見的未來,收入將超過 60 億英鎊。當然,損益平衡點非常強的PBT仍低於每年30萬台,每季7.5萬台。事實上,第三季銷量已降至 7 萬台。稅前利潤數字的一半實際上主要是對我們以美元計價的債務進行轉換的重估遊戲。我們將在後面的幻燈片中討論這個問題。
EBITDA out of 11.9%. EBIT was particularly encouraging at 3.7%, significantly higher than the comparative periods. And cash once we breakthrough that breakeven point with our average transacting values and average GVR being above GBP70,000 per unit now. It really does escalate into a considerable cash positive for GBP90,000, the best cash quarter for seven quarters.
EBITDA 為 11.9%。息稅前利潤達3.7%,尤為令人鼓舞,明顯高於同期。一旦我們突破損益平衡點,我們就會獲得現金,目前我們的平均交易價值和平均 GVR 超過每單位 70,000 英鎊。它確實升級為可觀的現金正值,達到 90,000 英鎊,這是七個季度以來最好的現金季度。
Next slide, please. Okay, so these are the key highlights. We'll get into some more of the details around these later. The order banks did grow, we will explain our expectations on that going forward. Refocus did deliver again up to GBP850 million, which again, it will repeat our confidence in more than GBP1 billion on that as well. And very importantly, our cash liquidity continues to be strong GBP3.9 billion. And we actually secured the extension of our revolving credit facility at the end of December and then into early January that got extended to GBP1.5 billion -- GBP2 billion through to April 2026.
請看下一張投影片。好的,這些就是重點。稍後我們將討論更多有關這些內容的細節。訂單銀行確實有所成長,我們將對此未來的預期作出解釋。 Refocus 確實再次帶來了高達 8.5 億英鎊的收入,這再次印證了我們對超過 10 億英鎊收入的信心。而且非常重要的是,我們的現金流動性持續保持強勁,達到 39 億英鎊。實際上,我們在 12 月底就確保了循環信貸額度的延長,然後在 1 月初將其延長至 15 億英鎊至 20 億英鎊,直至 2026 年 4 月。
Next slide, if you would please. So these are the quarter three highlights on retail and wholesale volumes. You see the big callouts. At the top there, marginally on wholesales [5.706%,] 15% year-over-year, but focus on retails first of all, as I've mentioned, the actual retails did fall a little bit, this is by nameplate. Basically, we've improved the deliveries on Defender, and you will see increasingly going forward. Now we've moved to three shift on Defender, a lot of our orders on the Defender nameplate will start to fall in the retails increase.
請看下一張投影片。這些是第三季零售和批發量的亮點。您看到了大大的標註。其中,批發業務略有成長 [5.706%],年增 15%,但首先關注零售業務,正如我所提到的,實際零售額確實有所下降,這是按品牌劃分的。基本上,我們已經改進了 Defender 的交付,您將看到越來越多的進步。現在我們已經轉向對 Defender 進行三班倒,隨著零售量的增加,許多 Defender 品牌的訂單將開始下降。
Range Rover held up. But within that, we're starting to improve our MLA deliveries Range Rover and Range Rover Sport, which is a fundamental improvement in this quarter's delivery. From a wholesale perspective, a steady improvement 506% this quarter, just a little bit more of the quarter before. That's the progression we're starting to see now, the progression, I think we can start to anticipate going forward. Again, you can see that Defender delivery increasing in quarter three to almost 24,000 units and the Range Rovers and Range Rover Sports coming through also as well.
路虎攬勝堅持住了。但在此範圍內,我們開始改善 MLA 交付 Range Rover 和 Range Rover Sport,這是本季交付的根本性改進。從批發角度來看,本季穩定成長 506%,比上一季略有成長。這就是我們現在開始看到的進展,我認為我們可以開始預測未來的進展。再次,您可以看到 Defender 的交付量在第三季度增加到近 24,000 輛,而 Range Rover 和 Range Rover Sports 的交付量也同樣增加。
Next slide, if you would please. And this is by region. Really important to say those bigger units, Range Rovers and Range Rover Sports. We've doubled the volume of deliveries, that's starting to impact North America heavily. You can see that both on the retail and the wholesale piece, and even though those units were made available within China. Of course, the lockdowns in December within the retailer facilities in China and that they weren't in a position to take those deliveries. And so the reduction in both the China retail and wholesale was inventory we hold ourselves pending pass over to China.
請看下一張投影片。這是按地區劃分的。真正重要的是要說那些更大的車型,Range Rover 和 Range Rover Sports。我們的送貨量增加了一倍,這開始對北美產生重大影響。您可以在零售和批發兩個方面看到這一點,儘管這些產品僅在中國境內銷售。當然,12 月中國零售店實施了封鎖,導致他們無法接收這些貨物。因此,中國零售和批發的減少都是我們自己持有的等待轉移到中國的庫存。
The actual uplift in China in the first three weeks of January is very strong. As those dealer outlets have opened, of course, the dealers are -- have an appetite to take those units, and they're moving very, very quickly, and that will be our anticipation post New Year also. The electrified number of units have grown to 67%, but you can see we're in a frame of 65% to 70% now, and that's likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
一月份前三週中國的實際成長非常強勁。隨著這些經銷商分店的開業,經銷商當然有興趣購買這些產品,而且他們的銷售速度非常非常快,這也是我們對新年後的期望。電氣化機組數量已增長至 67%,但您可以看到,目前我們處於 65% 至 70% 的範圍內,而且在可預見的未來,這種狀況很可能會持續下去。
Next slide, please. Okay, so the bridge versus the same profitability last year have had small loss last year, EBIT 1.4%. So volume and mix is starting to influence this considerably and that would be a shape we would expect to continue going forward. The pricing and our VME is still very low, and obviously it's corroboratory data around those units actually being passed over very low levels, 0.6% VME, and their targeted levels on targeted nameplates within targeted regions. Most of our larger units have zero VME at this point in time.
請看下一張投影片。好的,與去年相同的獲利能力相比,去年的橋樑虧損較小,息稅前利潤為 1.4%。因此,數量和組合開始對此產生相當大的影響,我們預計這種形態將在未來繼續下去。定價和我們的 VME 仍然非常低,顯然這是關於這些單位實際上被傳遞到非常低的水平(0.6%VME)及其在目標區域內的目標銘牌上的目標水平的確證數據。目前,我們大多數較大的單位都沒有脆弱海洋環境。
We do, however, as we've talked before some considerable headwinds on material cost inflation, commodity inflation. Utility prices also, but they are starting to pitch our way. And also we've had to go into the marketplace to buy premium chips to keep supply go, and so that's all a part of our material cost, again, we're starting to see that taper down. And my expectation going forward is the pricing in VME will begin to offset the material cost increases in quarter four and beyond.
然而,正如我們之前談到的,材料成本通膨、商品通膨確實面臨相當大的阻力。公用事業價格也是如此,但它們開始向我們傾斜。而且我們必須進入市場購買優質晶片以保持供應,所以這都是我們材料成本的一部分,我們再次開始看到這一成本逐漸下降。我預計,VME 的定價將在第四季及以後開始抵銷材料成本的上漲。
We are investing more. We're absolutely spending more within our commercial areas, our commercial function both on marketing now. Our marketing is still only 2/3s of the level it was pre-semiconductors, of course. So coming from a low-base, but we will be actually starting to spend more fixed marketing as confidence on supply comes through over the next weeks and months. Particularly, our engineering spend to move towards our Reimagine electrified future, is starting to increase pace. And we'll show you that in more detail when we get to the capital slide.
我們正在加大投資。我們現在在商業領域、商業職能和行銷方面投入的資金絕對更多。當然,我們的行銷水平仍然只有半導體時代之前的 2/3。因此,儘管基數較低,但隨著未來幾週和幾個月對供應的信心逐漸增強,我們實際上將開始投入更多的固定行銷資金。特別是,我們為重新構想電氣化未來而投入的工程支出正在開始加快步伐。當我們講到資本幻燈片時,我們會向你展示更詳細的內容。
And the operational exchange is -- the big news is the revaluation I've mentioned of our dollar-denominated debt. Sterling appreciated from INR112 to INR120 in the quarter. You see mostly that within the reval line. But our operational position is still ahead of our hedges that crystallized within the quarter and therefore there is a net gain on operational FX. And that's up to the 3.7% EBIT, GBP265 million PBT, encouraging quarter for us.
而營運方面的交流是──重大新聞是我提到的以美元計價的債務的重新估價。本季度,英鎊從 112 印度盧比升值至 120 印度盧比。您主要會在 reval 行中看到這一點。但我們的營運狀況仍領先於本季內實現的對沖,因此營運外匯實現淨收益。這對我們來說是一個令人鼓舞的季度,息稅前利潤達到 3.7%,稅前利潤達到 2.65 億英鎊。
Next slide, please. So this is the cash that flows from that. You can see the GBP265 million, I've just referenced. GBP800 million cash profit after tax. Look you know our model works really well when that number moves up towards GBP1 billion, that's where we were at the end of FY '21, that's where we expect to get back to over the next few quarters. And that's why the underlying cash flow is still strong, even though investment spending is starting to increase.
請看下一張投影片。這就是由此產生的現金。您可以看到我剛才提到的 2.65 億英鎊。稅後現金利潤8億英鎊。您知道,當這個數字上升到 10 億英鎊時,我們的模型就會發揮很好的作用,這就是我們在 21 財年末的水平,我們預計在接下來的幾個季度會回到這個水平。這就是為什麼儘管投資支出開始增加,但基礎現金流仍然強勁。
Working capital was a nice rewind this quarter of GBP306 million, but it's only a small fraction of the adverses we've had on working capital since March '21, GBP1.77 billion negative from that point. Most of that will rewind as we move through the several next quarters. And what you're looking for here is production and wholesale volumes to grow through 30,000 units a month, then 35,000, and when we get to 40,000 units a month, which is where we were at in March '21, most of that will actually rewind. So a lot of cash is going to come through from working capital, as we build back our production volumes and our wholesale volumes, of course, free cash flow GBP490 million best result for seven quarters, very pleasing, on just 79,600 units.
本季營運資本大幅減少 3.06 億英鎊,但這只是自 21 年 3 月以來營運資本不利影響的一小部分,自那時起營運資本已減少 17.7 億英鎊。隨著我們進入接下來的幾個季度,其中大部分內容將會回顧。這裡你想要的是生產和批發量增長到每月 30,000 台,然後是 35,000 台,當我們達到每月 40,000 台時,也就是我們在 2021 年 3 月的水平,其中大部分實際上會倒退。因此,隨著我們恢復生產量和批發量,大量現金將從營運資金中產生,當然,自由現金流為 4.9 億英鎊,這是七個季度以來的最佳業績,非常令人滿意,僅售出 79,600 輛。
Next slide, please. So this is the breakeven slide. I won't dwell on it, just to say, we're still at the 280,000 level in Q3, it will average it to around 300,000 full year, we are starting to invest more, including our fixed marketing and our commercial digital strategy. So our costs will increase. But with the mix strengthening on MLA and Defender units, we expect a containment of breakeven over the next two to three quarters or so.
請看下一張投影片。這就是損益平衡幻燈片。我就不多說了,我只想說,我們第三季的銷量仍然在28萬的水平,全年平均銷量會達到30萬左右,我們開始投入更多,包括我們的固定行銷和商業數位策略。因此我們的成本就會增加。但隨著 MLA 和 Defender 單位的組合加強,我們預計未來兩到三個季度左右將實現收支平衡。
Next slide, please. This is the investment number I mentioned, it is worth referenced in last year hit. So GBP622 million in total, up just over GBP100 million, pretty much all of that, but more than all of that is in the engineering spends. We are bringing more engineers, of course, into the organization to deliver a Reimagine strategy electrified future and that's starting to impact on our cost base as it needs to do so. More of that is being capitalized now 48%, which demonstrates the maturity of those architectures starting to grow and improve. We were down at 26% only earlier in the year. So this is actually a good sign, and I do expect investment to continue to increase beyond GBP650 million towards GBP700 million over the next quarter or two.
請看下一張投影片。這就是我剛才提到的投資數字,這個數字是值得參考去年全年的投資情況的。因此,總計為 6.22 億英鎊,略高於 1 億英鎊,幾乎佔了全部金額,但超過全部金額的是工程支出。當然,我們正在招募更多工程師加入組織,以實現重新構想的電氣化未來策略,而這開始對我們的成本基礎產生影響。現在,資本化的程度已達到 48%,這表明這些架構的成熟度開始成長和完善。今年早些時候,我們的利潤曾下降了 26%。所以這實際上是一個好兆頭,我確實預計未來一兩個季度投資將繼續增加,超過 6.5 億英鎊,達到 7 億英鎊。
Next slide, please. Business update, I'll go to next one. So our Reimagine electrified strategy. Look, there's no change to our electrified strategy. I know I'm on-record of saying that, I thought I'd dwell here on the key highlights, which is exactly the same as previous highlights you would have seen from an electrified journey. MLA architecture is out there with beautiful car you see there and it's Range Rover Sport, the order banks have been filled by those two products. It is that the epitome we believe of modern luxury, beautiful proportions to that vehicle and the Range Rover Sport, the minimalist luxury view inside the vehicle. That's a great signature to vehicles and the quality and view of vehicles we will put forward going forward.
請看下一張投影片。業務更新,我將轉到下一個。所以我們的重新構想是電氣化策略。你看,我們的電氣化戰略沒有改變。我知道我已經說過了,我想在這裡詳細討論主要亮點,這些亮點與您在電氣化旅程中看到的亮點完全相同。 MLA 架構的產品有您現在看到的漂亮的汽車和 Range Rover Sport,這兩款產品已經填滿了訂單庫。我們認為它是現代奢華的縮影,該車和攬勝運動版的比例很美,車內則是簡約奢華的景觀。這對車輛來說是一個偉大的標誌,也是我們未來將推出的車輛的品質和外觀的標誌。
Within two years, we will have a full electrified BEV Range Rover, it's just two years away. Now, recognizing our order bank support for that product for the next 12 months, also the gap between orders and new electrified vehicle is closing. And we'll continue to close as we go through 2023. We will then in '25 come forward with our first all new electrified Jaguar products. And then beyond that area our other Range Rover and other Defender products will come along in the next two years, within two years most of our vehicles will have full electrified offerings, and that will be complete in all models before the end of the decade.
兩年內,我們將推出全電動化的 BEV 路虎攬勝,只剩兩年了。現在,認識到我們的訂單銀行對未來 12 個月產品的支持,訂單和新電動車之間的差距也在縮小。我們將在 2023 年繼續完成這項工作。除此之外,我們的其他攬勝和其他 Defender 產品也將在未來兩年內推出,兩年內我們的大多數車輛都將提供全電動產品,並且將在 2020 年前在所有車型中實現全面電氣化。
We're estimating 60% of sales by then will be BEV. But the important point, we would have offerings across a range over that period of time. We still maintain zero tail pipe emissions by 2036 net zero carbon emissions by the end of that decade. So electrified future continues at pace and the investments we're now making are going to grow towards it over the next 12 to 18 months at least.
我們預計到那時 60% 的銷量將是純電動車。但重要的是,我們會在這段時間內提供一系列的產品。到 2036 年,我們仍將維持零廢氣排放,到 2030 年底,實現淨零碳排放。因此,電氣化的未來將繼續快速發展,我們現在所做的投資至少在未來 12 到 18 個月內將會成長。
Next slide, please. Okay, so these are our wholesale volumes, I think the important thing here, you can see the gradual improvement, but I like to look at quarter versus last year. So Q2 '23 versus Q2 '22, you can see there about a 15% increase, we know Q3 is a 15% increase and that starts to give you an indication of what we should begin to expect in quarter four. So we are expecting that number to grow in Q4, and obviously, to continue to grow going forward.
請看下一張投影片。好的,這些是我們的批發量,我認為這裡重要的是,你可以看到逐步的改善,但我喜歡看與去年同期相比的季度表現。因此,與 2022 年第二季相比,2023 年第二季成長了約 15%,我們知道第三季的成長率為 15%,這開始表明我們應該對第四季的預期是什麼。因此,我們預計該數字將在第四季度增長,並且顯然將繼續增長。
So we do think we've made a lot of progress on supply, particularly on semiconductors, particularly for this calendar year, but there are still challenges, of course, COVID in China is a challenge, and we'll talk about that in a few moments. But we are improving our breakeven points of stabilizing, and therefore, our profitability EBIT, revenue and cash will be growing as we go forward.
因此,我們確實認為我們在供應方面取得了很大進展,特別是在半導體方面,特別是在今年,但仍然存在挑戰,當然,中國的 COVID 是一個挑戰,我們稍後會討論這個問題。但我們正在提高穩定的損益平衡點,因此,我們的獲利能力、息稅前利潤、收入和現金將會隨著我們的前進而成長。
Next slide. Okay, Range Rover and Range Rover Sport, the MLA architecture are fundamental to the delivery of our business model, and our business success. And we explained in great detail over the early quarters of last year, how it was difficult for us to gain the parts to grow the volumes, we've broke through that in September you can see the average weekly has grown quarter-over quarter. We will deliver more production units in Q4, it won't be that same size of scale of increase, but it will be a sizable 10%, 15% improvement in Q4 over Q3. Also we can maintain our 33% to 35% worth of deliveries on these products and that will maintain our average selling price of the levels you've just seen, as well as a strong variable profit mix portfolio going forward. It's really is now starting to show through our business results, particularly in Q3 and going forward.
下一張投影片。好的,Range Rover 和 Range Rover Sport,MLA 架構對於我們商業模式的實現和業務成功至關重要。我們在去年前幾季詳細解釋了我們為何難以獲得零件來增加銷量,但我們在 9 月突破了這一難題,您可以看到每周平均銷量環比增長。我們將在第四季度交付更多的生產單位,雖然增幅不會那麼大,但與第三季相比,第四季將有 10% 到 15% 的大幅成長。此外,我們可以維持這些產品的 33% 至 35% 的交付量,這將使我們的平均售價維持在您剛剛看到的水平,以及未來強勁的可變利潤組合。現在它確實開始透過我們的業務成果體現出來,特別是在第三季及以後。
Next slide, please. Okay, so what's going to happen to order banks? Well, first point is they did continue to grow in quarter three and we've hopefully broke out the amount of deliveries, we passed over to customers 85,000 versus the amount of new orders, 95,000. So at this level of marketing spend, and we are only spending 2/3s of the level on marketing, we were before semiconductor shortages. But at this level, you can expect new orders to grow by 30,000 or thereabout a month. But our fulfilled orders, our retails will start to grow now. We're already seeing that in Q4 in top because of the opening up of China. But I do anticipate in quarter four fulfilled orders to be above new orders, and therefore, our order banks to start to taper down towards the level which is more natural maybe towards the 200,000 level over the next three to four months.
請看下一張投影片。好的,那麼訂單銀行會發生什麼情況呢?嗯,第一點是它們在第三季度確實繼續增長,我們希望能夠公佈交付量,我們交給客戶的是 85,000 份,而新訂單量是 95,000 份。因此,在這種行銷支出水準上,我們在行銷上的支出僅為半導體短缺之前的 2/3。但在這個水準上,你可以預期每月新訂單將增加30,000左右。但我們已完成的訂單和零售額現在將開始成長。由於中國的開放,我們在第四季度已經看到了這一點。但我確實預計第四季度已完成的訂單量將超過新訂單量,因此,我們的訂單量將在未來三到四個月內開始逐漸減少,朝著更自然的水平下降,比如下降到 20 萬的水平。
Most of them, as we said before in those three nameplates, Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Defender, we have gone to third shift on Defender. And therefore, as we come out of quarter four, our deliveries in particular and our fulfilled orders on Defender will grow. And then we've also mentioned, we expect to build another 10% or 15% more than the other two or so. So very confident at retail levels or FFO orders are going to move towards a 100,000 level over the course of the next months and quarters.
其中大部分,正如我們之前提到的,在 Range Rover、Range Rover Sport 和 Defender 這三個品牌中,我們已經在 Defender 上進行了第三次轉變。因此,隨著第四季度的到來,我們在 Defender 上的交付量和已完成的訂單量將會成長。然後我們也提到,我們預計將比其他兩個項目多建設 10% 或 15% 左右。因此,我們非常有信心,零售水平或 FFO 訂單將在未來幾個月和幾個季度內達到 100,000 的水平。
Next slide, please. This is a super important slide, we've drought on it several times that we're going to run through. The top piece is a range of retail inventory targets and that dark blue line is now creeping towards the bottom of that band, which means the vehicle is in the right place and that will trigger incremental retails in Q4 as I've mentioned a couple of times.
請看下一張投影片。這是一張非常重要的投影片,我們已經多次講解它了。最上面的部分是一系列零售庫存目標,深藍線現在正慢慢接近該範圍的底部,這意味著車輛處於正確的位置,正如我多次提到的那樣,這將在第四季度觸發增量零售。
Around wholesale stock, inventory we own, the band there you see below between 30,000 units and 45,000 units. We're still within that band towards the bottom of it. So if you add those two numbers together 82,000 inventory end-to-end BEV vehicles at the end of December that was the highest number we had in inventory for several quarters back to around May 2021. So that's a good healthy sign that we're starting slowly to fill the pipeline, which will trigger more retails, et cetera., et cetera. This really is starting to improve for although, there are still issues we can get on a daily basis in terms of supply.
關於批發庫存,我們擁有的庫存,您可以看到下面的範圍在 30,000 單位到 45,000 單位之間。我們仍然處於這個區間的底部。因此,如果將這兩個數字加在一起,截至 12 月底,端到端 BEV 汽車的庫存為 82,000 輛,這是截至 2021 年 5 月左右幾個季度以來我們庫存的最高數量。儘管情況開始有所改善,但是我們每天在供應方面仍然存在一些問題。
Next slide, please. Inflation has been a theme over year. What did we say at the start to the year? We said, Refocus would offset inflationary claims. Nine months through this period, inflationary claims have been GBP660 million. Refocus have been GBP850 million, half of which is in the commercial space. So we're doing what we said we would do. The investment number because we mentioned earlier, when our accelerating and bringing more engineers in -- by future won't be a savings going forward and our expectation is the commercial performance, the market performance, will actually then begin to offset inflation in Q4 and beyond, together with our efficiencies through our agile transformation activities, which we've referenced previously also. So we are doing and we will do this year exactly what we said we could do in terms of offsetting those high inflationary claims.
請看下一張投影片。通貨膨脹一直是一年來的主題。今年年初我們說了什麼?我們說過,重新聚焦將抵銷通膨的壓力。此期間的九個月內,通膨索賠額已達6.6億英鎊。重新聚焦的資金已達 8.5 億英鎊,其中一半用於商業領域。所以我們正在做我們說過要做的事。正如我們之前提到的,投資數字,當我們加速並引入更多工程師時,未來將不會節省開支,我們預期商業表現、市場表現實際上將在第四季度及以後開始抵消通貨膨脹,再加上我們透過敏捷轉型活動提高的效率,我們之前也提到過。因此,在抵銷高通膨索賠方面,我們正在做、並且今年還將繼續做我們承諾過的事情。
Next slide, please. You need to mention COVID, and China we've all seen the reports and the extent of the contagion within the Chinese population. Q3, it was impacted, of course, by lockdowns particularly at the dealers and also some disturbance in terms of the units we could build. Employee absence for a short period was high. I'm really pleased to say that more than 90% of our employees are the production facilities, and 99% of our employees within our national sales company have now returned to work.
請看下一張投影片。你需要提到 COVID 和中國,我們都看到了相關報導以及中國人口的傳染程度。第三季度,當然受到了封鎖的影響,特別是經銷商的封鎖,以及我們可以生產的單位受到的一些幹擾。員工短期缺勤率很高。我很高興地說,我們 90% 以上的員工都在生產設施工作,全國銷售公司 99% 的員工現在都已經回到工作崗位。
And the retailers definitely opened up for the three weeks in January, obviously, with Chinese New Year, there's a care point around. What happens to the population following that, but we do anticipate given the scale of contagion in the December period that we'll get back to business very quickly in China at the backend of Q4. There is a care point around production facilities in China, supplier production facilities that we are monitoring. And we'll bring information back around that as we close out the year results. But it is possible for us to be stopped within the U.K. production -- within need for production and within China production, as a result of those supplier facilities. There won't be the scale and the size of the stoppages we've seen previously. We don't believe.
而且零售商肯定會在一月份的三週內開業,顯然,由於恰逢農曆新年,所以周圍會設有一個護理點。隨後人口會發生什麼情況,但考慮到 12 月的傳染規模,我們確實預計,我們將在第四季末在中國很快恢復業務。我們正在監控中國的生產設施和供應商的生產設施周圍有一個護理點。我們將在年度業績結束時提供有關該方面的資訊。但由於這些供應商設施的原因,我們在英國的生產(需要生產)和中國的生產可能會停止。停工的規模和範圍不會像我們以前看到的那樣。我們不相信。
Next slide, please. Look, year-to-date, I'm proud on Q3 here, but this is a summary so far year-to-date. I won't read it out apart from say, we all know EBIT margin positive across the first nine months. Investment is lower, but growing. Free cash flow is just under GBP300 million. I've shown there, hopefully, what our expectation is for Q4, above 80,000 units, on wholesale, maybe closer to 85,000 plus, if we continue as we have in the first month. Revenue will exceed GBP5 billion close to GBP6 billion, again. We will be positive on EBIT with that. And our investment will grow, probably around to GBP700 million, GBP600 million something. And our free cash flow, we believe with those physicals will be more than GBP400 million positive, which will make us positive free cash for the full year and the rest of the data you see there.
請看下一張投影片。看看,今年迄今為止,我對第三季感到自豪,但這是今年迄今為止的總結。我不會唸出來,除了說,我們都知道前九個月的息稅前利潤率為正。投資較低,但在成長。自由現金流略低於3億英鎊。我已經在那裡展示了我們對第四季度的預期,批發量超過 80,000 台,如果我們繼續像第一個月那樣發展的話,可能接近 85,000 台以上。收入將再次超過50億英鎊,接近60億英鎊。我們將對息稅前利潤抱持正面態度。我們的投資也會增加,大概會達到7億英鎊、6億英鎊左右。我們相信,加上這些實物,我們的自由現金流將超過 4 億英鎊,這將使我們全年的自由現金流以及您在此處看到的其他數據均為正值。
What are our priorities? Obviously, continue to secure chip supplies, one, through the strategic tie-ups, but two, through the excellence of the work the team is now -- we really do have excellent teams in place now, ensure we keep our supply and outlines going, continue Range Rover and Range Rover Sport ramp up, I've mentioned. Our expectation that will grow by 10% to 15% in Q4 over Q3, improve on the 80,000 units we've done in quarter three within quarter four now. Refocus complete, including more of those price increases come -- coming through as we deliver more cars to customers. And obviously, our job is to deliver positive data, so EBIT margin and free cash flow in quarter four and also for the full year. I think that's my last slide.
我們的優先事項是什麼?顯然,繼續確保晶片供應,一是透過策略合作,二是透過團隊現在的卓越工作——我們現在確實擁有優秀的團隊,確保我們保持供應和輪廓,繼續提升攬勝和攬勝運動版,我已經提到過。我們預計第四季的銷量將比第三季成長 10% 至 15%,在第三季已售出的 8 萬台的基礎上進一步提升。重新聚焦已完成,包括隨著我們向客戶交付更多汽車,價格將進一步上漲。顯然,我們的工作是提供積極的數據,即第四季度以及全年的息稅前利潤率和自由現金流。我想這是我的最後一張投影片。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thank you, Adrian. Let's quickly move on to the Tata Commercial Vehicle space, Girish and I will take the session. As -- if you recollect, we had signaled as earlier saying that we will be focusing squarely on modern market shares, the registration market shares and shifting to a demand pull business model that did cost a bit of grease in the month of October. But since then we've been sequentially improving our market shares as the propositions are starting to land and we're starting to see this in across the rest of all the portfolio as well.
謝謝你,阿德里安。讓我們快速進入塔塔商用車領域,Girish 和我將主持會議。如果你還記得的話,我們之前曾表示過,我們將重點放在現代市場份額、註冊市場份額,並轉向需求拉動的商業模式,這在 10 月確實造成了一些損失。但從那時起,隨著提案開始落地,我們的市佔率也逐步提高,我們也開始在其他投資組合中看到這一點。
Next slide, please. From a point I would like to call out is, take a look at the CNG, the light green bar there, substantial drop in CNG composition as the price of CNG started inching closer towards diesel. And we should expect to see this trend reverse once the CNG prices starts stabilizing and going down. So we are very much invested in CNG, but this is a current way it's played out. And the other thing that I will call out here is the whole international business, where you would notice that the wholesales have been pretty anemic as the challenge in the international business continues.
請看下一張投影片。我想指出的是,看一下 CNG,那裡的淺綠色條,隨著 CNG 價格開始逐漸接近柴油,CNG 成分大幅下降。一旦 CNG 價格開始穩定並下降,我們就應該看到這種趨勢逆轉。因此,我們在 CNG 方面投入了大量資金,但這是目前的實施方式。我在這裡要提到的另一件事是整個國際業務,你會注意到,隨著國際業務挑戰的持續,批發業務一直非常疲軟。
Next slide, please. From a financial performance standpoint, the demand pull model is translating into improved profitability of almost 580 bps, revenues growth, of course of 22.5% pretty strong, and EBIT now at 5.9%, up 650 bps.
請看下一張投影片。從財務表現的角度來看,需求拉動模式意味著獲利能力提高了近 580 個基點,收入成長了 22.5%,相當強勁,息稅前利潤現在為 5.9%,上漲了 650 個基點。
Next slide, please. Drivers of this particular profitability, you would see -- draw your attention to the realizations adjusted against variable cost, you will notice this number used to be negative in the past, now setting at almost 480 bps as the strategy starts playing out. And what you do see as the structural cost disadvantages that have come through this quarter, some of -- most of it related to the investment that we are making in the new technologies [that's] translating into higher employee cost and then, of course, investment in the business as you have more and more money into FME's that's showing the number there.
請看下一張投影片。您會看到,推動這一特定盈利能力的因素——請將注意力集中到根據變動成本進行調整後的實現情況上,您會注意到,這個數字在過去曾經是負數,而現在隨著策略開始發揮作用,已設定為近 480 個基點。而您確實看到本季出現的結構性成本劣勢,其中大部分與我們對新技術的投資有關,這轉化為更高的員工成本,當然還有對業務的投資,因為您在 FME 上投入的資金越來越多,這就是數字的體現。
Next slide, please. Let me give it to Girish to talk about the business highlights.
請看下一張投影片。讓我讓 Girish 來談談業務亮點。
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Great. Thanks, Balaji. So the industry grew by around 16% over Q3 of FY '22, one has seen the growth rates have been dropping out. But this is also due to the base effect. And that's what we will see in Q4 also the growth rate we put on further.
偉大的。謝謝,巴拉吉。因此,該行業比 22 財年第三季增長了約 16%,人們已經看到成長率一直在下降。但這也是由於基數效應。這也正是我們將在第四季看到的,成長率將進一步提高。
For Tata Motors, since we have been focusing on retails, I think our retails were ahead of wholesales by 6% in the quarter gone by. And this is also in-line with our preparation to unwind as we gear up for the RD transition in the month of April. I think good thing for the industry, the commodity prices did soften in Q3. And that's how it is remaining in Q4 also as of now. And we are keeping a track of how the steel prices especially moves, steel prices and precision with those move in Q1 of next year.
對於塔塔汽車來說,由於我們一直專注於零售,我認為上個季度我們的零售額比批發額高出 6%。這也與我們為 4 月份 RD 過渡所做的放鬆準備一致。我認為這對產業來說是件好事,第三季大宗商品價格確實有所走軟。截至目前,第四季的情況仍是如此。我們正在密切關注鋼鐵價格的走勢,尤其是明年第一季鋼鐵價格的走勢及其精確度。
Balaji spoke about the CNG. So I think with the CNG benefit going down, and more so it is a concern in the minds of the customers about variability in CNG price, I think the volumes have come down. And in the SCV, they've come down to around 12% of the portfolio, ILCV they have come down to around [40%] of the portfolio and we would recollect, and ILCV it use to be almost around 40%. Within the segments, I think medium and heavy commercial vehicles have seen a very good growth almost 50% growth over Q3 of last year, again due to the base effect, and even higher growth in the passenger. So passenger segment is back, I think the -- it was the worst suffering warning during the COVID period and during the COVID recovery.
巴拉吉 (Balaji) 談到了 CNG。因此我認為,隨著 CNG 收益的下降,以及客戶對 CNG 價格波動的擔憂,我認為 CNG 銷量已經下降。在 SCV 中,它們佔投資組合的比例已降至 12% 左右,ILCV 則降至投資組合的 [40%] 左右,我們記得,ILCV 曾經幾乎在 40% 左右。在這些細分市場中,我認為中型和重型商用車實現了非常好的成長,比去年第三季成長了近 50%,這同樣是由於基數效應,而客車的成長則更高。因此,客運部分已經恢復,我認為這是新冠疫情期間和新冠疫情恢復期間最嚴重的一次損失警告。
For us the non-vehicle business is spare parts, I think continues to do pretty well. Spare parts and consumables, and in fact, in the nine months in this financial year, we have grown by around 38% over last year. And the penetration also keeps on increasing. So the share of the overall market is continuously improving quarter-over-quarter.
對我們來說,非汽車業務是零件,我認為它會繼續表現得很好。備件和消耗品,事實上,在本財政年度的九個月裡,我們比去年增長了約 38%。而且滲透率還在不斷提高。因此,整體市場的份額正在逐季度持續提高。
On the product point, we continue to launch new products. And for the year, we've launched more than 40 new products, as well as 150 plus variants. And this includes is Ace electric vehicle or which we've already started the deliveries in the beginning of this month. The new range of pickups, both Intra and Yodha, I think has a very, very good traction in the market, and also good premium that we are able to charge. And we also got the CNG trucks, which we have started seeing some traction.
在產品點上,我們不斷推出新產品。今年,我們推出了 40 多種新產品和 150 多種變體。其中包括 Ace 電動車,我們已經在本月初開始交付。我認為新系列的皮卡,包括 Intra 和 Yodha,在市場上具有非常非常好的吸引力,而且我們能夠收取不錯的溢價。我們還獲得了 CNG 卡車,並已開始看到其發展勢頭。
Coming to Auto Expo, we did introduced a comprehensive range and I'm going to speak about that a little later. Going ahead, we will continue to have the focus on these three things, which is retail pull, improving the Vahan share, which is the registration, and of course, while doing all this, I think realization improvement agenda will continue. To push this agenda, we continue to engage with all the key stakeholders in the ecosystem. Meet customers and financials also, and trying to get them onboard. I think we see a very good commitment from all the stakeholders to the revised, we are working on the revised operating model that we have put in.
在汽車博覽會上,我們確實推出了一系列全面的產品,稍後我將談論這一點。展望未來,我們將繼續關注這三件事,即零售拉動、提高 Vahan 份額、即註冊量,當然,在做這一切的同時,我認為實現改進議程還將繼續。為了推動這項議程,我們繼續與生態系統中的所有關鍵利害關係人合作。與客戶和財務人員會面,並嘗試讓他們加入。我認為我們看到所有利害關係人對修訂版做出了非常好的承諾,我們正在致力於實施修訂後的營運模式。
RD transition is what we are preparing towards, migration will happen from April 2023. And of course, as we did in BS VI in April '20, even now, I think we will come up with a lot of value enhancement for the customers. So it won't be a plane simple price increase. With the COVID situation globally, we did bring semiconductor supply situations back on our radar. While it was a bit worrisome 15 year back, I think in a fortnight things have improved. But we will continue to keep this as well as electric vehicle aggregates on our radar.
我們正在為研發轉型做準備,遷移將從 2023 年 4 月開始。所以不會是飛機簡單的漲價。隨著全球新冠疫情的爆發,我們確實將半導體供應情況重新納入了關注範圍。儘管 15 年前的情況有點令人擔憂,但我認為兩週後情況有所改善。但我們將繼續關注這一領域以及電動車整體情況。
In international markets, I think in most of the markets, the volumes have dipped significantly more than 50% and in this kind of an environment, we are focusing on maintaining our market shares in all the markets. Margins, I think margins have also been doing well, and also the channel health, we are ensuring the channel health even in this lower volume, which is extremely important when the volumes start picking up.
在國際市場上,我認為在大多數市場,交易量都大幅下降了 50% 以上,在這種環境下,我們專注於在所有市場中保持我們的市場份額。利潤率,我認為利潤率一直表現良好,通路健康也一樣,即使在銷售較低的情況下,我們也在確保通路健康,這在銷售量開始回升時極為重要。
Next slide. Talking about Electric Mobility. So as I said, I think we completed very successful trials of the Ace electric vehicle in our customers operations. Both we started with e-commerce players, but we also had the FMCG players joining the bandwagon as also parcel and courier companies. And I think the product has done very, very well, which is leading to even more enquiries for the product. I think we started these deliveries and as you can see in the third bullet, we have also now started pulling material from the supply chain, although we had a COVID scare, I think we will start ramping up the production of this vehicle. We did showcase almost eight zero emission concepts in Auto Expo, which I'll speak about.
下一張投影片。談論電動汽車。正如我所說,我認為我們在客戶營運中對 Ace 電動車進行了非常成功的試驗。我們都是從電子商務公司起步的,但也有快速消費品公司以及包裹和快遞公司加入這一行列。我認為該產品的表現非常非常好,從而帶來了更多的產品諮詢。我認為我們已經開始了這些交付,正如您在第三點中看到的,我們現在也已經開始從供應鏈中拉取材料,儘管我們受到了 COVID 的恐慌,但我認為我們將開始加大這款車的產量。我們確實在汽車博覽會上展示了近八種零排放概念,我將談論這些概念。
On our Smart City Mobility Solutions business that we have put in place, we signed a definitive agreement now with the Delhi Transport Corporation as well as Bangalore for 15,921 buses respectively. So that's around 24, 21. In addition, we also got an order of 200 buses from Jammu and Srinagar. Our e-bus fleet now has cumulatively crossed more than 6 crore -- 60 million kilometers, with more than 95% up time till December. The revenue generated by this business in the nine months has been INR260 crores. And at this level of revenue, I think the business is giving good profits.
就我們已經實施的智慧城市交通解決方案業務而言,我們目前已與德里運輸公司和班加羅爾分別簽署了 15,921 輛公車的最終協議。所以大約有 24、21 輛。截至 12 月,我們的電動公車車隊累計行駛里程已超過 6 千萬公里,正常運作時間超過 95%。該業務在過去九個月內創造的收入已達26億印度盧比。在這種收入水平下,我認為企業利潤很好。
On the digital businesses, I think we continue to grow the fleet edge penetration. Our connected truck platform with the total vehicles crossing 337,000, which is around 135,000 customers and the usage also has been growing consistently with having -- we have obviously 80% customers been active usage on the fleet edge.
在數位業務方面,我認為我們將繼續擴大車隊優勢滲透率。我們的連網卡車平台總車輛數已超過 337,000 輛,約有 135,000 名客戶,而且使用量也一直在穩步增長——顯然,有 80% 的客戶在車隊邊緣積極使用。
E-Dukaan, which is our online marketplace, we use to sell spare parts on this, now we've also added consumables like diesel exhaust fluid and lubricants. And in addition to that, I think we've also started adding some of our retailers as well as mechanics, as customers, so they can also order on this platform and we see a very healthy growth almost 165% growth over the previous year. I spoke about digital lead generation during the last quarter. And we continue to push this agenda, in the entire portfolio, we had almost 16% of our sales coming from yields generated through digital means. We still have a good headroom because the convergence can improve further from the level that we have reached.
E-Dukaan 是我們的線上市場,我們用它來銷售備用零件,現在我們還添加了柴油引擎廢氣處理液和潤滑劑等消耗品。除此之外,我認為我們也開始增加一些零售商和機械師作為客戶,以便他們也可以在這個平台上訂購,我們看到非常健康的成長,比前一年增長了近 165%。我在上個季度談到了數位化銷售線索的產生。我們將繼續推動這項議程,在整個投資組合中,我們近 16% 的銷售額來自透過數位方式產生的收益。我們仍然有很好的發展空間,因為在我們已經達到的水平上,融合還可以進一步提高。
Next. So talking about Auto Expo, I think the whole Auto Expo was making a statement of our journey towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions. So we committed by 2045, we will be net zero greenhouse gas emissions. And as our commitment towards that, we demonstrated 14 concepts. We had hydrogen propulsion, in terms of hydrogen ICE power tractor, a hydrogen fuel cell tractor, and also hydrogen fuel cell bus, which actually will see commercial application from the next quarter. So this is to meet the IOCL order that we had received last year.
下一個。所以說到汽車博覽會,我認為整個汽車博覽會都在陳述我們實現溫室氣體淨零排放的歷程。因此,我們承諾在 2045 年實現溫室氣體淨零排放。為了實現這項承諾,我們展示了 14 個概念。我們有氫動力推進技術,包括氫內燃機牽引車、氫燃料電池牽引車以及氫燃料電池公車,這些技術實際上將從下個季度開始投入商業應用。這是為了滿足我們去年收到的印度石油公司訂單。
We also unveiled five electric vehicle concepts. Ace, of course, the deliveries are started, the Starbus EV which is already on the road. The Ultra E.9, which is the next vehicle we see having good customer interest. Magic EV, which is for the last mile intra city passenger transportation. And Prima 28 ton tipper, which is a good option to de-carbonize the closed loop usage of tippers especially in mining.
我們也推出了五款電動車概念。 Ace,當然,交付已經開始了,Starbus EV 已經上路了。 Ultra E.9 是我們看到的下一款受到顧客青睞的車款。 Magic EV,針對城內最後一公里的客運。 Prima 28 噸自卸車是減少自卸車閉環使用碳排放的良好選擇,尤其是在採礦業。
We also introduced two new fuel agnostic architectures, which addresses our entire range from 7 tons to 55 tons. And these two architectures can take any powertrain to ICE as well as electric, in electric, battery-electric and then hydrogen fuel cell electric as well as H2X. We, of course, revealed Yodha CNG and Intra bi-fuel, which are available for sale now, commercial sale, Prima LNG tipper, which is also ready for commercial sale and we are working with few customer, and of course, premium version of our Winger.
我們還推出了兩種新的與燃料無關的架構,涵蓋了從 7 噸到 55 噸的整個範圍。這兩種架構可以將任何動力系統轉變為內燃機和電動、電動、電池電動,然後是氫燃料電池電動以及 H2X。當然,我們推出了 Yodha CNG 和 Intra 雙燃料,它們現在已開始商業銷售;Prima LNG 自卸車也已準備好進行商業銷售,我們正在與一些客戶合作;當然,還有我們的 Winger 的高級版本。
In addition to this, we also had good interactive exhibits to explain our fleet edge, the connected truck platform, the Sampoorna Seva, which is our bouquet of services, as also E-Dukaan, which also attracted good attention. I think this was a very holistic display of, not just our commitment towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions, but also hope we are driving solve the cutting-edge products and services.
除此之外,我們還有很好的互動展品來解釋我們的車隊優勢、連網卡車平台、Sampoorna Seva(我們的服務組合)以及 E-Dukaan,這些也引起了廣泛關注。我認為這是一個非常全面的展示,不僅是我們對溫室氣體淨零排放的承諾,也希望我們正在推動解決尖端產品和服務的問題。
Back to you, Balaji.
回到你身邊,巴拉吉。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thank you. Thanks, Girish. Next slide, please. Moving on to passenger vehicles. Next slide, here the callout is the consistent improvement in market shares and a strong growth, market bidding growth that continues here. And the third callout is CNG plus EV is now almost 17% of the portfolio.
謝謝。謝謝,Girish。請看下一張投影片。接下來是乘用車。下一張投影片,這裡的重點是市場佔有率的持續提升和強勁的成長,市場競價的成長也持續進行。第三個要點是 CNG 加 EV 現在佔投資組合的近 17%。
And next slide is like, slightly improved further once the new CNG launches come in as well as the Tiago EV launches as well. EV continues to be on our own, we have surpassed the max one of selling 50,000 EV vehicles from the stock. And for the calendar year, it was all almost 37,000, making almost 1% of our market share is in EVs now.
下一張投影片是這樣的,一旦新的 CNG 推出以及 Tiago EV 推出,情況將會略有改善。電動車繼續保持獨立發展,我們已經突破了庫存電動車銷售 50,000 輛的最高紀錄。就全年銷量而言,電動車銷量接近 37,000 輛,這意味著我們的市佔率中幾乎有 1% 是來自電動車。
Next slide. From a performance perspective, 37% revenue growth, INR300 crores almost of profits, EBITDA of 6.9%, there is a one-offs of about 80 odd bps that you see in EBITDA there, but EBITDA of about 1.5%. So strong performance continues in the profitability side, and we should continue to see a steady improvement on this one.
下一張投影片。從業績角度來看,營收成長37%,利潤接近30億印度盧比,EBITDA為6.9%,在EBITDA中可以看到約80個基點的一次性支出,但EBITDA約為1.5%。獲利能力方面持續保持強勁表現,我們應該繼續看到獲利能力的穩定改善。
Next slide. In terms of drivers, here again, you see the realizations and variable cost is now starting to improve further, so demand is underlying. Contribution margin of the business is starting to improve. And investments fundamentally, in the EV business with employees building up the team that is what you see over there as well as investments and products is what you see on the DNA side, those are the two things that brought down the fixed cost line.
下一張投影片。就驅動因素而言,您再次看到實現和變動成本現在開始進一步改善,因此需求是潛在的。業務貢獻利潤率開始提高。從根本上來說,在電動車業務中,您所看到的是員工組建團隊的投資,以及您在 DNA 方面看到的投資和產品,這兩件事降低了固定成本線。
Next slide, please. Let me hand it over to Shailesh to give you a sense of the business.
請看下一張投影片。讓我把它交給 Shailesh,讓您了解一下業務狀況。
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Thank you, Balaji. Let me start with the key highlights of the industry. Quarter three was a retail heavy quarter I would say, and the industry reached its highest ever quarter -- highest in retail in its history of more than 10.58 lakhs and wholesale also grew by 23% as compared to the quarter three of last financial year.
謝謝你,巴拉吉。讓我先來介紹一下該行業的主要亮點。我想說第三季度是零售業蓬勃發展的一個季度,零售額達到了有史以來最高的一個季度,超過 105.8 萬盧比,為歷史最高水平,批發額也比上一財年的第三季度增長了 23%。
EV industry has continued to show strong growth year-on-year versus last quarter 130% growth, primarily lead by Tata Motors. It is notable to see the last calendar year, which was 2022, the industry wholesale was at its highest level at 3.8 million as compared to somewhere around 2019, where it was at 3.3 million, 3.4 million level. So steep jump, I would say, nearly 25% growth as compared to where we were in 2021. As far as Tata Motors is concerned, we have been around 14% market share, consistently throughout financial year.
電動車產業持續呈現強勁成長勢頭,較上季成長 130%,主要由塔塔汽車引領。值得注意的是,上一個日曆年,即 2022 年,行業批發量達到了 380 萬的最高水平,而 2019 年左右則為 330 萬、340 萬的水平。因此,我想說,與 2021 年相比,我們的成長幅度大幅提升了近 25%。
PV and EV business has delivered an industry-leading growth of 33% of PV and a very high growth for the EV also. Like the industry we also had the highest ever quarterly retail at 139,000. For the calendar year 2022, we were the third OEM to cross the 5 lakh mark. And we also, as Balaji mentioned that during the last quarter, we crossed the 50,000 milestone for EVs since its inception. And in the last calendar year this credit, what Balaji (inaudible) actually 44,000 -- nearly 44,000 sales that we did for EVs in the last calendar year. We maintained our #1 SUV position as of year-to-date. And Nexon and Punch are among the top three in the 40 plus odd SUVs that we have in the market. As far as, EV sales year-to-date is concerned, for the financial year, it is at [32.4K] units with the market share of 85%.
乘用車和電動車業務實現了領先業界的乘用車成長,達到33%,電動車的成長也非常高。和整個產業一樣,我們的季度零售額也創下了歷史新高,達到 139,000。就 2022 日曆年而言,我們是第三家突破 50 萬大關的 OEM。正如巴拉吉所提到的,上個季度,我們的電動車銷量自誕生以來已突破了 50,000 輛的里程碑。在去年的這個稅收抵免中,Balaji(聽不清楚)實際上為 44,000 輛——去年我們為電動車完成了近 44,000 輛的銷售。截至今年迄今,我們仍保持第一的 SUV 地位。在我們市場上的 40 多款 SUV 中,Nexon 和 Punch 均位列前三名。就年初至今的電動車銷量而言,本財政年度的銷量為 [32.4K] 輛,市佔率為 85%。
Going forward, the bright spots, given that the inventory in the channel has gained, there are new product launches that we seen recently in the industry and improved supplies quarter four should be strong as far as wholesale is concerned, when this is compared to quarter three. And as far as EV growth is concerned, there are a lot of states who have announced progressive EV policies, and that should support the EV growth in quarter four. As far as Tata Motors is concerned, Tiago EV deliveries have commenced in this month. We have a strong order book, we had extended introductory pricing for the first 20,000 customers, which we have already crossed in terms of bookings.
展望未來,亮點在於,鑑於通路庫存增加、我們最近在行業中看到新產品推出以及供應改善,與第三季度相比,第四季度的批發業務應該會表現強勁。就電動車的成長而言,許多州已經宣布了漸進式電動車政策,這應該會支持第四季度電動車的成長。就塔塔汽車而言,Tiago EV 已於本月開始交付。我們的訂單量非常大,我們為前 20,000 名客戶提供了延長的介紹定價,我們的預訂量已經超過了這個數字。
We -- in the Auto Expo have showcased the Harrier and Safari Red #Dark, and this is going to be launched in this quarter itself. As far as BS VI Phase 2 transition is concerned, it is on-track and ahead of the deadline. We on 10 January, completed the acquisition of Ford plant in Sanand. And we saw very strong response to the product on news of the Auto Expo, and I'll talk about in the next slide.
我們在汽車博覽會上展示了 Harrier 和 Safari Red #Dark,這些車型將於本季推出。就 BS VI 第二階段過渡而言,一切進展順利,並且提前完成了。我們於 1 月 10 日完成了對薩南德福特工廠的收購。我們在汽車博覽會的新聞中看到該產品獲得了非常強烈的反響,我將在下一張幻燈片中討論。
Going forward as far as challenges are concerned, I think after a long duration of supply driven industry, now we are in a situation where supply has completely normalized. It is meeting the demand for all the regular models, except for some popular models, which are still high on waiting list. Overall, enquiry to retail time has increased for the industry. You see this is a signal of lack of urgency among the customers that includes supplies. And price increase BS VI Phase 2, we have to see if there is any impact on the demand, something to be watched out for.
展望未來的挑戰,我認為,在經歷了長期的供應驅動型產業之後,現在我們處於供應完全正常化的情況。它滿足了所有常規型號的需求,除了一些在等候名單上仍然名列前茅的熱門型號。總體而言,該行業接受零售諮詢的時間有所增加。您會看到,這是客戶缺乏緊迫感的訊號,包括供應品。至於 BS VI 第二階段的價格上漲,我們必須看看是否會對需求產生任何影響,這是需要警惕的。
In terms of accessories, we are going to go for very focused demand generation initiatives specifically in certain segments, as well as hypermarkets. And as far as margin is concerned we are taking structural material cost reduction actions. And we are continuing to drive other levers of margin improvement.
在配件方面,我們將針對特定領域以及大賣場採取非常有針對性的需求產生措施。就利潤而言,我們正在採取結構材料成本降低措施。我們也持續推動其他提高利潤率的槓桿。
Next slide, pardon me. Giving a quick overview of what we showcased in the Auto Expo. The theme for this Auto Expo was Moving India Forward to Safer, Smarter and Greener Vehicles. And we had about 12 showcases both on EV as well as ICE side. We showcased Tiago EV, which we already launched. Harrier EV was also showcased. This is a Generation 2 product for us. Sierra EV expected to be launched in 2025 was also showcased. And Avinya, which is the Generation 3 pure EV also slated to be launched by the end of 2025. These were [4] products that we showcased.
下一張投影片,對不起。簡單概述一下我們在汽車博覽會上展示的內容。本次車展的主題是「推動印度走向更安全、更聰明、更環保的汽車」。我們在 EV 和 ICE 方面都有大約 12 個展示。我們展示了已經推出的 Tiago EV。 Harrier EV 也進行了展出。對我們來說這是第二代產品。預計 2025 年推出的 Sierra EV 也在此次展會上亮相。第三代純電動車 Avinya 也計劃於 2025 年底推出。
On the ICE portfolio side, I already talked about the Harrier, Safari #DARK which will come with ADAS as well as the bigger infotainment screen. This gets launched in this quarter, as I said. It was a big discussion that we have showcased in the Auto Expo, which is CNG twin cylinder technology. I think this segment has always suffered with the handicap of having boot space because it was occupied by the cylinder, and we came with this very innovative idea of having the screen cylinder, which releases the space and retains in a way, the boot space, which was otherwise being sacrificed in (inaudible). This would come in the first half of next financial year.
在 ICE 產品組合方面,我已經談到了 Harrier、Safari #DARK,它們將配備 ADAS 以及更大的資訊娛樂螢幕。正如我所說,它將在本季推出。我們在汽車博覽會上展示的是一個大型討論,即 CNG 雙缸技術。我認為這個部分一直存在行李箱空間不足的缺陷,因為它被圓柱體佔據了,所以我們提出了一個非常創新的想法,即使用屏幕圓柱體,這樣既可以釋放空間,又可以在某種程度上保留行李箱空間,否則就會犧牲行李箱空間(聽不清楚)。這將在下一財年上半年實現。
Then we also showcased the ICE version of Curvv. If you remember, in late 2022, we have showcased the EV version. And along with this product, we have also showcased the 2 TGDi engines in gasoline, 1.2 and 1.5 liter, which will help us in coming with products which will be greater than (inaudible) meter in the ICE space. And this was received very well. This is what I have to share. Back to Balaji.
然後我們也展示了Curvv的ICE版本。如果你還記得的話,2022 年末,我們已經展示了 EV 版本。除了這款產品之外,我們還展示了兩款汽油 TGDi 發動機,分別為 1.2 升和 1.5 升,這將有助於我們推出在 ICE 領域大於 (聽不清楚) 米的產品。此舉受到了熱烈歡迎。這就是我要分享的。回到巴拉吉。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thank you, Shailesh. Next slide, please.
謝謝你,Shailesh。請看下一張投影片。
Overall CV PV cash flows draw your attention to cash profit after tax, strong and therefore, more than adequately funding the CapEx that we have, and we gradually claw back the working capital that we lost in the first quarter. So that's what is happening.
總體而言,CV PV 現金流吸引了您對稅後現金利潤的關注,強勁,因此足以資助我們的資本支出,並且我們逐漸收回第一季損失的營運資金。這就是正在發生的事情。
Next slide, please. Investments, you can read for yourselves, skipping the slide, but just to guide that for the full year, the investment spending is likely to be around the INR6,000 crores number, no change on that one.
請看下一張投影片。關於投資,大家可以自己看,跳過幻燈片,但只是為了指導全年,投資支出可能在 600 億印度盧比左右,這一點沒有變化。
Next slide, please. Tata Motors Finance, I want to take a few minutes on this because this is a disappointment for us this quarter, where the GNPA increase that we saw in this portfolio is 2 reasons. Number one, the restructured book that's actually starting to perform pretty poorly, and it's continuing to do bad and going from bad to us and as well as onetime hits because of the RBI upgradation norms that we had. So therefore, we have started to get further provisions put through in the restructured book. This is now almost 9% of the AUM of INR41,000 crores that we have. And there are a lot of efforts underway, as you would expect, to normalize the static restructured book. And therefore, this work is going to be pretty intense in this quarter as well. The early results are encouraging, and the GNPA is starting to reduce November, December and January so far has been trending well with maturity efficiency improving to 102%. The normal book is quite comfortable. We don't see stress there and capital adequacy also is quite comfortable there. But clearly, this is an area where we need to drive a lot of efforts to ensure that we get our collection efforts up particularly on the restructured book.
請看下一張投影片。塔塔汽車財務,我想花幾分鐘談一下這個問題,因為本季我們感到失望,我們在這個投資組合中看到的 GNPA 成長有兩個原因。首先,重組後的帳簿實際上表現得相當糟糕,而且由於我們制定的印度儲備銀行升級標準,它的表現持續糟糕,對我們來說甚至一度很糟糕。因此,我們已經開始在重組後的帳簿上加入進一步的規定。這幾乎占我們 4,100 億印度盧比 AUM 的 9%。正如您所期望的,目前正在進行大量努力來規範靜態重組書籍。因此,本季這項工作也將非常緊張。早期結果令人鼓舞,GNPA 從 11 月、12 月和 1 月開始減少,到目前為止趨勢良好,成熟效率提高至 102%。普通的書還挺舒服的。我們沒有看到那裡的壓力,而且資本充足率也相當充足。但顯然,這是一個我們需要付出巨大努力的領域,以確保我們的收集工作能夠取得成效,特別是在重組後的帳簿方面。
Next slide, please. Overall, therefore, our priorities, you can read for yourself, but maybe the only thing I'd like to highlight is the view on demand, which I'm sure a lot of you are asking as well. We remain cautiously optimistic both in JLR as well as India. And there are enough global uncertainties that we are all aware of, but we still remain optimistic, albeit, we can't be complacent. And hence, we work both in JLR and in India on the innovation intensity as well as activating the market and ensuring that we will now have rightful place here. And of course, ship supplies are likely to improve further, and therefore, volumes will continue to ramp up steadily, particularly in JLR. And commodity prices, we do expect stability. And therefore, the focus on profitable growth should deliver a strong EBIT and free cash flows in Q4 as well.
請看下一張投影片。總的來說,我們的優先事項,您可以自己閱讀,但也許我唯一想強調的就是按需視圖,我相信很多人也在問這個問題。我們對捷豹路虎和印度市場仍持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們都意識到全球有足夠的不確定性,但我們仍然保持樂觀,儘管我們不能自滿。因此,我們在捷豹路虎和印度都致力於創新力度以及激活市場並確保我們在這裡擁有應有的地位。當然,船舶供應可能會進一步改善,因此,運輸量將繼續穩定上升,尤其是在捷豹路虎。我們確實預計商品價格將保持穩定。因此,對獲利成長的關注也應該會在第四季度帶來強勁的息稅前利潤和自由現金流。
So that's what I have to say, the individual priorities by businesses we've already covered. So let me not go through that. Let me start covering the questions that have come through already. Go to the questions, (inaudible).
這就是我要說的,我們已經討論了各個企業的個別優先事項。所以我不想再經歷這些了。讓我開始解答已經提出的問題。轉到問題,(聽不清楚)。
Okay, so maybe let's start with, I think Ben this is coming your way, Ben or Adrian, either of you can take it. Could you let us know the terms of the extension of the revolver? How much was undrawn and drawn interest rates increased by? And additionally, given the cash position the company enjoys, is there a scope for optimizing the revolver debt balance further? And there was another question in terms of also about how much of repayment are you planning given the cash position there? But do you want to just wrap this all up is one response, Ben.
好的,那麼也許讓我們開始吧,我認為本,這是向你走來的,本或阿德里安,你們任何一個人都可以接受它。能告訴我們這把左輪手槍的延期條款嗎?未提取和提取的利率增加了多少?此外,考慮到公司的現金狀況,是否還有進一步優化循環債務餘額的空間?還有一個問題,考慮到目前的現金狀況,您計劃償還多少債務?但是你想把這一切都結束嗎?
Bennett Birgbauer - Treasurer
Bennett Birgbauer - Treasurer
Yes, I can cover that, Balaji. So broadly, the terms of the revolver are, in terms of covenants and things like that, the documentation is pretty much identical to the prior revolver. The pricing margin did go up 50 basis points to 3.35% but that's on a drawn basis and on an undrawn basis, all we do is we pay 35% of the margin. So the annualized cost of GBP1.5 billion revolver is about GBP18 million. So from our perspective, it's the cheapest fire insurance you can possibly have. In terms of, is there scope for optimizing the revolver debt balance, well, just because I think it is low-cost liquidity insurance and we actually used to have a higher revolver than that, I don't really think we're considering taking down the revolver. We obviously have the net debt target that we'll still be working towards, but I don't really see changing the size of the revolver at this point.
是的,我可以講一下,巴拉吉。因此,從廣義上講,這筆左輪手槍的條款,就契約和類似事項而言,其文件與之前的左輪手槍幾乎完全相同。定價利潤率確實上漲了 50 個基點,達到 3.35%,但這是在已提取的基礎上,在未提取的基礎上,我們所做的就是支付 35% 的保證金。因此,15億英鎊循環貸款的年化成本約為1,800萬英鎊。因此從我們的角度來看,這是您能擁有的最便宜的火災保險。至於是否有優化循環債務餘額的空間,嗯,只是因為我認為它是低成本的流動性保險,而且我們實際上曾經擁有比這更高的循環債務,所以我真的不認為我們正在考慮取消循環債務。顯然,我們有淨債務目標,我們仍將努力實現這一目標,但目前我並不認為循環信貸規模會有所改變。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thank you, Ben. Next question, I think, is from Chandramouli at Goldman Sachs. I think, Adrian, this is coming your way. On JLR, how are we thinking about the demand outlook once we clear out our strong order backlog? If the current hawkish interest rate environment were to continue into the next year, what is your view on demand? And the next I think the same question coming in to Girish later on. You take the first, Adrian.
謝謝你,本。我認為下一個問題來自高盛的 Chandramouli。我想,阿德里安,這正是你想要的。對於捷豹路虎來說,一旦我們清理掉大量積壓訂單,我們如何看待需求前景?如果目前鷹派的利率環境持續到明年,您對需求有何看法?我認為接下來 Girish 也會提出同樣的問題。你拿第一個,阿德里安。
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Yes. Thanks, Balaji. So from our perspective, look, our order banks are historical highs (inaudible) to pre-supply challenges that doubled the level. And you've seen the size of the increase is a reduction. So we believe our order banks are going to stay unnaturally high, particularly on the Range Rover, but we sold out for more than 12 months now, and we're not taking new orders until '24 model year and on the Range Rover Sport, we're rectifying Defender. So we will see a marginal reduction quarter-on-quarter, but I still believe we'll be this time next year talking about order banks, which are higher than ideal. So at today's level of known uncertainty in the marketplace, on recession and interest rates at the levels we see in front of us going forward today, I believe the challenge continues through '23 to be supply rather than demand. We have plenty of opportunity to increase demand and stimulate that given we're only spending 2/3 of the level on fixed marketing, we were 12 months, 18 months ago also.
是的。謝謝,巴拉吉。因此從我們的角度來看,我們的訂單庫達到了歷史最高水平(聽不清楚),而供應挑戰的水平已經翻了一番。你已經看到了增加的幅度是減少了。因此,我們相信我們的訂單量將保持異常高位,尤其是攬勝車型,但目前我們的訂單已售罄 12 個多月了,而且我們直到 24 款車型年才接受新訂單,而對於攬勝運動版,我們正在整改 Defender。因此,我們將看到季度環比略有下降,但我仍然相信,明年這個時候我們談論的訂單量將高於理想水平。因此,在當今市場已知的不確定性水準、經濟衰退和我們今天看到的利率水準的情況下,我認為到23年,我們面臨的挑戰仍將是供應而不是需求。我們有充足的機會來增加需求並刺激需求,因為我們在固定行銷上的支出僅為目前的 2/3,12 個月、18 個月前也是如此。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thanks, Adrian. Girish, this is coming your way. Same from Chandramouli itself. On India CVs, how are we thinking about price hikes heading into the stricter emission standards beginning FY'24? Is it going to be all at once or more phased in nature?
謝謝,阿德里安。吉里什,這是你該做的事。 Chandramouli 本身也是如此。對於印度商用車而言,我們如何看待從 24 財年開始實施更嚴格的排放標準所導致的價格上漲?它是會一次完成還是分階段完成?
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
So the cost increases for RDE are going to be lesser as compared to what we had seen in BS6 Phase 1. But even in BS6 Phase 1, I think we had taken all the increases or the price increase in one go. I think there is only another factor that we have to keep a watch on, which is the commodity increases, which may happen again in Q1 of next financial year. And basis both these things put together, we'll see what is the kind of price increase which has to be passed on. But from the point of view of RDE, I think it will also vary model to model, but mostly, it will be passed out in one go.
因此,與 BS6 第一階段相比,RDE 的成本成長將會較小。我認為我們需要關注的另一個因素是大宗商品價格上漲,這可能會在下一財年第一季再次出現。把這兩件事放在一起,我們就會知道需要轉嫁什麼樣的價格上漲。但是從RDE的角度來看,我認為它也會因型號而異,但大多數情況下,它會一次傳遞出去。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Just sticking to you, from Sonal Gupta, HSBC MF. LCVs. While M&HCV is growing strong growth, LCV segment is showing a decline. Can you highlight the reasons?
這只是來自匯豐銀行 MF 的 Sonal Gupta 的留言。輕型商用車。儘管 M&HCV 正在強勁成長,但 LCV 領域呈現下滑趨勢。能具體說明一下原因嗎?
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Yes. So I think it is more of ILCV, which is showing a decline, which in our parlance is 7 to 15 tonnes or now it has gone up to 7 to 18 tonnes. So as you rightly pointed out, M&HCV is growing because of higher freight availability. I think this year, we see that the freight supply is actually more than the trucks which are being put into the market and therefore, fleet utilization is going up. As far as ILCV is concerned, one of the thing which is playing out is the base effect, right? So the decline which had happened in ILCV was much lower than that of M&HCV, number one. And number two, we also see that in ILCV one had seen a significant penetration of CNG, where, to some extent, the resale vehicles were also underutilized when the last portion of CNG got pushed in or bought in more so. And I think those are coming back for usage now. So it is more of a base effect, and we do expect that this year, while the M&HCVs may grow above 45% on a year-on-year basis for the entire year, ILCV may end up growing only 14% to 15%.
是的。因此,我認為更多的是 ILCV,它呈現下降趨勢,用我們的說法是 7 至 15 噸,或現在已經上升到 7 至 18 噸。正如您正確指出的那樣,M&HCV 的增長是因為貨運量的增加。我認為今年我們發現貨運供應量實際上超過了投入市場的卡車數量,因此車隊利用率正在上升。就 ILCV 而言,正在發揮作用的事情之一就是基數效應,對嗎?因此,ILCV 的下降幅度遠低於第一名的 M&HCV。第二,我們也看到,在ILCV中,CNG的滲透率很高,在某種程度上,當最後一部分CNG被推入或被購買時,轉售車輛也未充分利用。我認為它們現在又可以投入使用了。因此,這更多的是一種基數效應,我們確實預計,雖然今年全年 M&HCV 的同比增長率可能超過 45%,但 ILCV 最終可能只會增長 14% 至 15%。
I don't know whether in LCV, you are also referring to the small vehicles. So let me talk about that also. As far as small vehicles are concerned, even here, I think it is the base effect which is coming in, but this continues to grow. The growth rate is tapering quarter-over-quarter, but still, I think it appears that for the entire fiscal, you should see a growth rate of more than 20%.
我不知道在LCV中,您是否也指小型車。因此我也來談談這個。就小型車而言,即使在這裡,我認為基礎效應正在顯現,但這種效應仍在繼續增長。成長率每季都在下降,但我仍然認為,整個財年的成長率應該會超過 20%。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. Thank you. Adrian, this is coming your way, this is from Jinesh Gandhi.In terms of JLR, you talked about higher inflation and supplier claims largely related to constrained volumes. Can you talk about the quantum of these 2, till what production level would you have to compensate vendors? And some related question also, chip-related cost inflation is expected to start moderating in CY'23 as supplies improve. Is that a fair assessment? And you also talked about increased SG&A spend. What are the targeted levels to which you want to increase SG&A spend? So maybe 3 distinct questions there.
是的。謝謝。阿德里安,這是你所需要的,這是來自 Jinesh Gandhi 的。您能談談這兩項的量嗎,直到什麼生產水準您需要向供應商進行補償?還有一些相關問題,隨著供應的改善,與晶片相關的成本通膨預計將在 23 年日曆年開始緩和。這是一個公平的評價嗎?您也談到了增加銷售、一般及行政開支。您想要將銷售、一般及行政開支增加到什麼目標水準?因此可能有 3 個不同的問題。
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Yes. Okay. So let me talk them in order of they were asked. So look, the inflation claims and the reason for supply claims, there's multiple reasons below that. And in terms of the level that we expect to be normal, if you go back to FY'21, on a previous call, I've referred to FY'21 a lot before supply constrained. In a normal level for us, we still believe will be the 120,000 units plus a quarter, 40,000 plus a month, 500,000 a year. And once we get towards that level, we'll be clear around much more we can push beyond that. So for a normal environment, and our suppliers are set up for a normal environment. we would need to build wholesale 40,000-plus units a month, and we're just above 26,000, 27,000 at the moment. So there's a long way from today to normal, but we do believe that increasingly quarter-over-quarter, we will in calendar year '23 move towards that normal level. Until we get fully to that level, a number of the reasons for the claims, in particular, the utilization of supplier factories, which are within this number will still be there, right? Once we get to that level, if we have no unnatural requirement to go buy parts outside of normal channels. If that's eliminated, then again, we will eliminate another course called no premium parts or chip supply from the vendors, the brokers, that will be eliminated as well. However, we will still be left with commodity prices. At the moment, they're looking to be heading more aggressive against us, and they will still be there. And a lot of our contracts with suppliers have a pass-through on commodity costs. So there will be some level. That's the only problem we have, we probably won't be talking about it, by the way. But it's wrapped up within that GBP200-plus million a month, including some more on utilities lower than it was and including the wage demands, which hopefully will come down with the interest rate pressures that are going to be put on.
是的。好的。因此,讓我按照提問的順序來討論這些問題。所以看看通貨膨脹的說法和供應的說法的原因,這背後有多個原因。就我們預期的正常水平而言,如果回顧 21 財年,在之前的電話會議中,我在供應受限之前曾多次提到 21 財年。對我們來說,正常的產量水準是,一個季度的產量為12萬輛,一個月的產量為4萬輛,一年的產量為50萬輛。一旦我們達到了這個水平,我們就會清楚我們可以取得更大的進步。因此對於正常環境,我們的供應商也為正常環境進行了設定。我們每月需要批發產量 40,000 多台,而目前我們的產量剛好超過 26,000 到 27,000 台。因此,從今天到恢復正常還有很長的路要走,但我們確實相信,隨著季度環比增長,我們將在 23 年逐步接近正常水平。在我們完全達到那個水平之前,許多索賠的原因,特別是供應商工廠的利用率,仍然會存在,對嗎?一旦我們達到那個水平,我們就沒有不自然的要求去正常管道之外購買零件了。如果這項措施被消除,那麼我們將再次消除另一種措施,即不向供應商和經紀人提供優質零件或晶片,這些措施也將被消除。然而,我們仍然會關注商品價格。目前,他們正試圖對我們採取更積極的進攻,而且他們仍會在那裡。我們與供應商簽訂的許多合約都涉及商品成本的轉嫁。所以會有一定的水平。順便說一句,這是我們唯一的問題,我們可能不會談論它。但它包含在每月 2 億多英鎊的費用中,其中包括一些比以前更低的水電費和工資要求,希望這些費用能隨著即將施加的利率壓力而下降。
From an SG&A perspective, we will increase spend, but revenue will increase as well. So think about SG&A increasing commensurate with improvements in revenue. It's just about 9% of revenue today, maybe a shade over, think about that being a broad guideline going forward on SG&A. So we won't be spending above our entitlement to spend. But as revenue grows, we'll need to stimulate some of that demand. Both of those data sets would increase.
從銷售、一般及行政開支的角度來看,我們將增加支出,但收入也會增加。因此,考慮銷售、一般及行政費用的增加與收入的提高相稱。這僅佔今天收入的 9% 左右,可能略高一點,想想這是未來銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 的廣泛指導方針。因此,我們的支出不會超出我們的權限。但隨著收入的成長,我們需要刺激一些需求。這兩個數據集都會增加。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thank you. I understand some of my questions are a bit muffled. I'll try my level best to increase my volume. Next question comes from Rakesh Kumar. Adrian, back to you again. With PHEV incentives coming down in Europe, do you see risk to JLR's compliance with CAFE targets? And given JLR's FCF generation in third quarter and seasonally strong fourth quarter, is your FCF breakeven outlook for FY'23 conservative? And I'll separately pick up the Tata's battery manufacturing plants in Europe.
謝謝。我知道我的一些疑問有點難懂。我會盡力提高我的音量。下一個問題來自 Rakesh Kumar。阿德里安,又回到你身邊了。隨著歐洲 PHEV 激勵措施的減少,您是否認為捷豹路虎在遵守 CAFE 目標方面存在風險?鑑於捷豹路虎第三季的自由現金流產生和第四季的旺季強勁表現,您對 23 財年的自由現金流盈虧平衡前景是否保守?我還想另外介紹一下塔塔在歐洲的電池製造工廠。
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Okay. So if I take the PHEV 1 before, look, we've been very consistent on PHEV volumes over the last several quarters, around 11%. We obviously monitor this really carefully. When I look at the order bank that we've referenced, the PHEV orders in that order bank are actually slightly richer than that at the moment. So up to 14%. So there's no indication at this point in time that any customer incentive changes on PHEV is having a sizable impact on the orders that we're actually receiving. Nothing at this point in time. So I'd say what we see today, no to the first one, there's no impact on PHEVs, and we don't expect to be noncompliant in Europe over this next phase either. The strong JLR cash flow in the third quarter, I think if we go back to the page that we talked to earlier, we are expecting a strong cash flow in quarter 4. The underlying cash should be broadly at the level that we saw in Q3, maybe around the GBP200 million. I'm hopeful cash from operations would increase a bit. with the increased volume, our investments are going to increase as well as we've said. So maybe those 2 will balance out.
好的。因此,如果我之前以 PHEV 1 為例,看,過去幾季我們的 PHEV 銷售一直非常穩定,約為 11%。我們顯然非常仔細地監控這一點。當我查看我們所參考的訂單庫時,我發現該訂單庫中的 PHEV 訂單實際上比目前的訂單庫稍微豐富一些。所以高達 14%。因此,目前沒有跡象表明 PHEV 的任何客戶激勵措施變化會對我們實際收到的訂單產生重大影響。目前還沒有任何消息。因此我想說,就我們今天看到的情況來看,對於第一個問題,它不會對 PHEV 產生影響,而且我們也不認為下一階段歐洲會出現不合規的情況。 JLR 第三季的現金流強勁,我想如果我們回到之前談到的頁面,我們預計第四季度的現金流將強勁。我希望經營現金流能夠增加。正如我們所說,隨著產量的增加,我們的投資也會增加。因此也許這兩者會平衡。
We're only 3 weeks through the quarter. There's 10 weeks to go, and with supply, obviously, still being fragile, things can change, but that's what I see today. Broadly speaking, underlying cash being similar, if not a shade higher in Q4 over Q3. So working capital was a big build-back this quarter, GBP300 million. That probably is going to fall a little. It really depends on how many units we actually build in the mid-February through end of March period, but it's likely to be less than the GBP306 million. So we see in total, the total cash to be slightly lower in Q4, even though the volumes are higher because of that working capital point. But we do believe that's going to drive us through breakeven, maybe up to GBP100 million in total for the full year.
本季只過了三週。還有 10 週的時間,而且由於供應顯然仍然脆弱,情況可能會發生變化,但這就是我今天看到的情況。整體來看,第四季的基礎現金與第三季相比類似,甚至略高。因此本季營運資金大幅增加,達3億英鎊。這可能還會下降一點。這實際上取決於我們在 2 月中旬到 3 月底期間實際建造了多少房屋,但可能低於 3.06 億英鎊。因此,我們看到,總體而言,第四季度的現金總額會略有下降,儘管由於營運資本點的原因,現金量有所增加。但我們確實相信這將使我們實現收支平衡,全年總收入可能達到 1 億英鎊。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thanks, Adrian. On the battery plants for Tata's in Europe, I think as we had mentioned earlier as well, this will be a Tata Son's entity that will be investing where you have JLR and Tata Motors as 2 anchor customers and locations India and Europe. Obviously, at this point in time, this is all that I can share. And as and when we are ready to announce more, we will talk about that.
謝謝,阿德里安。關於塔塔在歐洲的電池廠,我想正如我們之前提到的那樣,這將是塔塔集團的一個實體,該實體將在以捷豹路虎和塔塔汽車為兩大主要客戶的地方進行投資,投資地點分別位於印度和歐洲。顯然,目前為止我能分享的就這些了。當我們準備好宣布更多消息時,我們將會談論此事。
Okay. This question is actually coming on popular demand, and therefore, Shailesh, this is coming your way. Considering the strong EV order book, what is the rationale for the price cut in Nexon variant that we saw 2, 3 days back? And what's your take on the brand impact for the price cut? And is it supported by cost reductions? Multiple people have asked it in different ways, but this question is some stuff. Over to you.
好的。這個問題實際上是應大眾的要求而提出的,因此,Shailesh,這是給你提出的。考慮到強勁的電動車訂單,我們兩三天前看到的 Nexon 版本降價的理由是什麼?您認為降價對品牌有何影響?並且這是否透過降低成本來支持?很多人用不同的方式問過這個問題,但這個問題有些內容。交給你了。
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
So the call on price cut has been taken after a holistic consideration taking into account multiple factors. One is that we have a future growth aspiration as far as Nexon EV is concerned. And with the improving capacity and supplies, I think this was one big consideration. Also, the visibility of underlying structural costs and which we have been able to reduce over the last 2, 2, 3 years' effort of deeper localization that we have been working on. There is also an added factor of impending PLI benefits. Also the relook at relative price positioning of our entire EV portfolio. And most importantly, keeping the value proposition fiercely strong in the changing competitive landscape. So these were the 4, 5 factors, I would say that has really gone behind this. As far as brand is concerned, I think Nexon brand enjoys a very strong referral from its large customer base of 40,000 plus now. And in terms of its value proposition, it is the best in terms of compelling mix of best tech features, premium in cable experience, multiple range options. I think the revised pricing actually with improved range only makes it higher on consideration and more desirable for our customers. So I think this is the thought process on getting this.
所以降價是經過綜合考慮多面向因素後做出的。一是我們對 Nexon EV 的未來成長有期望。隨著產能和供應的不斷提高,我認為這是一個重要的考慮因素。此外,透過過去 2、2、3 年致力於更深層的在地化,我們已經能夠降低底層結構成本。另外還有一個即將到來的 PLI 福利因素。我們也要重新檢視整個電動車產品組合的相對價格定位。最重要的是,在不斷變化的競爭格局中保持強大的價值主張。所以,我認為上述 4、5 個因素才是真正導致這現象發生的因素。就品牌而言,我認為 Nexon 品牌目前擁有超過 40,000 個龐大的客戶群,享有非常強大的推薦力。就其價值主張而言,它是最佳技術特性、優質電纜體驗和多種範圍選擇的強大組合。我認為修改後的定價實際上會擴大其範圍,從而更加受到客戶的重視和青睞。所以我認為這就是獲得這個的思考過程。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. Thanks, Shailesh. There's a question on ADRs, which I thought we expect, but if you can just pick it up, why did Tata Motors decide to delist ADRs? Is it cost of compliance versus pressure on shares on account of shareholders who don't want to invest directly in India, management thoughts.
是的。謝謝,Shailesh。有一個關於 ADR 的問題,我以為這是我們預料到的,但如果你能回答,為什麼塔塔汽車決定退市 ADR?管理階層認為,這是合規成本還是由於股東不願在印度直接投資而產生的股價壓力?
We had explained that the original purpose with which ADRs were listed, I think, is probably now not relevant anymore. And with the Indian market getting deeper and wider, there is no constraint on fund raise. And also all our bond issuances anyway, we don't need the ADRs to be listed there to do that. And at the same time, compliances are getting more complicated. And therefore, we just decided, if the risk-reward equation one looked at it, it didn't make sense for us to continue, as part of simplification, we have knocked it off. That's the background to it. They stand delisted as of yesterday.
我們已經解釋過,我認為,ADR 上市的最初目的現在可能已經不再重要了。而且隨著印度市場的深入和廣泛,籌集資金不會受到任何限制。而且,無論如何,我們發行的所有債券都不需要在那裡列出 ADR 來實現這一點。同時,合規性也變得更加複雜。因此,我們決定,如果從風險報酬方程式來看,繼續下去是沒有意義的,為了簡化,我們已經把它取消了。這就是它的背景。自昨日起,它們就已被除名。
What is now the net auto debt deleveraging timeline for Tata Motors? I thought I already covered it. Maybe I'll just talk about the second line, how does the listing of Tata Technologies help towards that. We have announced our intention, it's now a Tata Technologies Board position, and therefore, we will be working with them closely.
塔塔汽車目前的淨汽車債務去槓桿時間表是怎麼樣的?我以為我已經講過了。也許我只想談第二行,塔塔科技的上市對此有何幫助。我們已經宣布了我們的意向,它現在是塔塔科技董事會的職位,因此,我們將與他們密切合作。
Question from Gunjan. Could you talk about the impact of RDE for both CV and PV? I think, Girish, you already covered that piece.
Gunjan 提出的問題。您能談談 RDE 對 CV 和 PV 的影響嗎?我認為,Girish,你已經討論過這個部分了。
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Yes.
是的。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Also an update on the discounting trends in CV industry. Update on the Tiago EV order book, Shailesh, and we already talked about the price cut in the Nexon. Why don't we finish that and then I'll go to JLR on the VME trend.
也介紹了 CV 產業的折扣趨勢的最新情況。有關 Tiago EV 訂單的最新消息,Shailesh,我們已經討論過 Nexon 的降價。我們為什麼不完成這個然後我會去 JLR 了解 VME 趨勢。
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Yes. So I think on the discounting, as we have been speaking about it for the medium and heavies and the intermediate and light commercial vehicles, we have started pulling back the discounts from the month of September. And we see a good impact of that going into our results for Q3. And we will continue to be on this path even in Q4 to bring down the discounts and also bring more transparency in the success. As far as the small commercial vehicles are concerned, I think this discount reduction journey we had started even earlier, right from Q1 of this year. So we'll continue that as well and ensure that finally, it helps us build margins in each of the product lines. Shailesh?
是的。因此,我認為,關於折扣,正如我們一直在談論的針對中型和重型商用車以及中型和輕型商用車的折扣一樣,我們已經從 9 月開始取消折扣。我們看到這對我們第三季的業績產生了良好影響。即使在第四季度,我們也將繼續沿著這條道路前進,降低折扣,並提高成功的透明度。就小型商用車而言,我認為我們從今年第一季就開始了更早的降價之旅。因此我們也會繼續這樣做,並確保最終它能幫助我們在每條產品線上建立利潤。沙伊萊什?
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
As far as Tiago EV order book is concerned, I already mentioned that we have crossed 20,000, which was the size that we have kept for the introductory price. So that is the status as of now. As far as delivery is concerned, we started the supplies, I would say, last month itself. And this month, we are ramping up. And I think we have kept a target that we should always keep the waiting period within 6 months, and that would be the attention. We have kept some level of fungibility between the electric vehicle models that we have. So we will be able to temporarily ramp up to ensure that the waiting period is kept within the period which is acceptable to customers.
就 Tiago EV 訂單而言,我已經提到我們的訂單量已超過 20,000 輛,這是我們按照介紹價格保持的訂單量。這就是目前的情況。就交貨而言,我想說我們上個月就開始供貨了。本月,我們將進一步加大力度。我認為我們一直有一個目標,那就是始終將等待期保持在 6 個月以內,這就是焦點。我們保留了現有電動車模型之間一定程度的可互換性。因此,我們將能夠暫時加快速度,以確保等待時間保持在客戶可以接受的範圍內。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thanks, Shailesh. Adrian, the third point is coming your way, in JLR, how do we see the VME trending given the macro and aggressive pricing from EV OEMs. I think Morgan Stanley also had a question on this one.
謝謝,Shailesh。 Adrian,第三點是關於您的,在 JLR,考慮到電動車原始設備製造商的宏觀和激進定價,我們如何看待 VME 的趨勢。我認為摩根士丹利也對此提出了疑問。
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Yes. Thanks, Balaji. Look, we're not seeing any signs at this point in time of lifts in VME even though I can understand the sentiment behind the question. I think in the environment we're in, while we still have had demand and orders increasing above supply, that will continue to be the place. VME is mixed by region and by nameplate, of course. And with the bias that we have and the customer orders we have on Range Rover, Range Rover Sport Defender, North America and China, they are the big biases within the data today. You know, the Amsterdam VME is 0%, 0%, 0%, 0% and 0%. So with this level of order intake and the bias to those products and our instability within the production and supply pipelines, we will continue to be very, very low. There will be a point in time where that will start to lift. So another question we are asked about what normal is, if normal's 40,000 units a month plus for us, which it likely is, I think it's reasonable to assume at this point, we'll be passing more of those non-big-3 units to the other regions. And then VME will start to gradually lift to 2%, 2.5% level at some point. We're not seeing any sign of that within the data we have to date.
是的。謝謝,巴拉吉。你看,儘管我能理解這個問題背後的情緒,但我們目前還沒有看到 VME 出現任何上升的跡象。我認為,在我們所處的環境中,儘管需求和訂單仍然超過供應,但這種情況仍將持續。當然,VME 是按地區和銘牌混合的。由於我們存在的偏見以及我們對攬勝、攬勝運動版衛士、北美和中國的客戶訂單,這些是當今數據中的巨大偏見。您知道,阿姆斯特丹 VME 的比例是 0%、0%、0%、0% 和 0%。因此,由於訂單量處於這種水平,並且對這些產品的偏見以及生產和供應管道的不穩定性,我們的訂單量將繼續處於非常非常低的水平。到某個時間點,這種情況將會開始消失。因此,我們被問到的另一個問題是,什麼是正常的,如果正常的是每月 40,000 個單位對我們來說,這很可能是這樣的,我認為現在可以合理地假設,我們將把更多的非三大單位轉移到其他地區。然後VME將開始逐漸提升至2%、在某一點達到2.5%的水準。從我們目前掌握的數據來看,我們並沒有看到任何這樣的跡象。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thank you. Next question, I move to Raghunandhan from Emkay. There's the other questions that have been answered but there is one that is new, which is on the EV PV subsidiary from when would you get PLI scheme benefits? And how are you accounting these incentives?
謝謝。下一個問題,我從 Emkay 轉到 Raghunandhan。其他問題已經得到解答,但有一個是新的,即關於 EV PV 子公司從什麼時候開始可以獲得 PLI 計劃福利?那麼您該如何計算這些激勵因素呢?
As far as the PLI benefits itself is concerned, the key is to ensure that the domestic value addition norms are met, and we are getting our vehicles accordingly certified. And we will have to file when the financial year is over, then you file for the PLI benefits and you get it subsequently. Given the fluidity of the situation at this point in time, and we are going through the process and it's the first time that we'll be filing this year, currently, no accrual is being done on these incentives. And once we get one round of things coming through, then we'll be in a position to review it on that one.
就 PLI 福利本身而言,關鍵是確保滿足國內增值標準,並對我們的車輛進行相應的認證。我們必須在財政年度結束時提交文件,然後您申請 PLI 福利,隨後您就可以獲得它。鑑於目前情況的不確定性,我們正在經歷這個過程,這是我們今年第一次提交申請,目前,這些獎勵尚未計入。一旦我們完成了一輪審核,我們就可以對其進行審查。
Okay. I think we already explained that on just capacity. I think Hitesh Goel of CLSA, what is the domestic passenger vehicle capacity currently? And when is the Ford capacity coming on stream?
好的。我認為我們已經就容量問題解釋過了。我想問里昂證券的 Hitesh Goel,目前國內乘用車產能是多少?福特的產能什麼時候開始投入使用?
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Yes. So as far as our capacity is concerned, we have been now at around 50,000 per month. We have further the ability to debottleneck the capacities in our 2 plants, which is in Pune and Sanand, which is the existing facility, not the Ford one, by an additional 10% to 15%. And we are targeting to operationalize the Ford plant in 12 to 18 months time.
是的。就我們的產能而言,現在我們的月產量約為 50,000 件。我們也能夠進一步降低我們兩家工廠(位於浦那和薩南德)的產能瓶頸,這兩家工廠是現有工廠,而不是福特工廠,產能可提高 10% 至 15%。我們的目標是在 12 到 18 個月內使福特工廠投入運作。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. Thank you. I think there's a question from Jinesh on passenger vehicles, a sharp drop in other expenses on a quarter-on-quarter basis, was there any one-offs? I think most of it is linked to just cost phasing across quarters. Nothing to read in it beyond the routine stuff there.
是的。謝謝。我認為 Jinesh 提出了關於乘用車的問題,其他支出環比大幅下降,是否有一次性影響?我認為其中大部分都與跨季度的成本分階段有關。除了常規內容以外,沒有什麼可讀的。
Then other one is in terms of, when can you expect to see these exciting products that were displayed in Auto Expo?
那麼另一個問題是,您什麼時候可以看到在車展上展出的這些令人興奮的產品?
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Yes. So none of these products were concepts. These are products all going to come in 2 to 3 years' time line. We already mentioned about that Harrier EV is going to come in 2024. Sierra and Avinya will come in 2025. These were the 3 electric vehicle products that we had shown. Tiago is already launched. That was the fourth one. As far as ICE products are concerned, Curvv is also going to come in 2024.
是的。因此這些產品都不是概念。這些產品都將在未來2到3年內上市。我們已經提到 Harrier EV 將於 2024 年上市。 Tiago 已經推出。那是第四個。就 ICE 產品而言,Curvv 也將於 2024 年上市。
Then the CNG models, which were the twin cylinder model of Punch in Altroz already mentioned earlier that it was going to come in the first half of the next financial year. So those are the segments.
然後是 CNG 車型,也就是 Altroz 的 Punch 的雙缸車型,之前已經提到它將在下一個財年的上半年上市。這些就是片段。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. Thank you. Ben, this is the next question, it's from [Zema]. This is on, can you confirm if you still be looking to use cash to repay the 2023 maturities versus refinancing through the markets. And the breakeven guidance implies GBP300 million FCF for the last quarter, which I think Adrian has already addressed that. So Ben, can you take the first piece?
是的。謝謝。本,這是下一個問題,來自 [Zema]。這是,您能否確認您是否仍希望使用現金償還 2023 年到期的債務,而不是透過市場進行再融資。損益兩平指引意味著上個季度的自由現金流為 3 億英鎊,我認為 Adrian 已經提到了這一點。那麼本,你能拿走第一塊嗎?
Bennett Birgbauer - Treasurer
Bennett Birgbauer - Treasurer
Yes. On the refinancing, so I think the default or base plan is that we had an expectation of circa GBP750 million, GBP800 million of cash flow in the second half, which Adrian already talked about, and that would be sufficient to cover the 2 bonds we have maturing in February and March for GBP800 million equivalent. And it's probably also worth mentioning that in June of this year, we had a GBP600 million equivalent China bank loan due to mature. And actually, we've signed an agreement in January to extend that for 3 years from January of this year, so maturing. The facility would end in January 2026. There are annual reviews though we've at least pushed out the maturity until January of 2024 on that.
是的。關於再融資,我認為預設或基本計劃是,我們預計下半年的現金流約為 7.5 億英鎊、8 億英鎊,阿德里安已經談到了這一點,這足以覆蓋我們在 2 月和 3 月到期的 2 只債券,價值 8 億英鎊。也許還值得一提的是,今年 6 月,我們有一筆 6 億英鎊等值的中國銀行貸款即將到期。實際上,我們已經在一月份簽署了一項協議,將該協議從今年一月起延長 3 年,因此該協議已經成熟。該設施將於 2026 年 1 月到期。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thanks, Ben. The next set of questions coming in from Kapil Singh. First one to you, Shailesh, Tiago, EV. What's the percentage of first-time buyers that you're seeing in the order book?
謝謝,本。下一組問題來自卡皮爾·辛格。第一個是你們,Shailesh、Tiago、EV。您在訂單中看到的首次購買者佔比是多少?
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
First-time buyers are roughly 25% to 30% is what we have seen who are buying a car for the first time, that's substantial in electric vehicle, we have never seen this. mostly the people had emerged buying this as a second or a third car, although a high percentage was using this as the only car and also the primary car. So first-time buyers, we have seen significant size of buyers.
我們看到,首次購車者大約佔25%到30%,對於電動車來說,這個比例相當大,我們從未見過這種情況。大多數人購買它是為了作為第二或第三輛汽車,儘管很大一部分人把它作為唯一的汽車和主要的汽車。因此,對於首次購屋者來說,我們看到了相當規模的購屋者。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. And the related question is this gross margin dilutive for the PV business? At the initial stages, yes. But after that, it will start trending towards the margins that the main (inaudible) will be making, but that's over a period of time. But that's part of the planning that we have for the overall portfolio. CV sentiment index, Girish. What's your latest updates since you track it?
是的。相關的問題是,這是否會稀釋光電業務的毛利率?在最初階段,是的。但在此之後,它將開始趨向於主要(聽不清楚)的利潤,但這需要一段時間。但這是我們整體投資組合規劃的一部分。 CV 情緒指數,Girish。自從您跟踪它以來,您有什麼最新更新?
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
I think in M&HCV cargo, we have seen some softening, but I can probably attribute that to the post festive season drop in trend. So future expectations still remain strong. In tippers, the sentiment index has improved marginally. That is also expected because the previous one was during monsoons where the tipper usage is low. In ILCV, it has dipped a bit, again, because of post festive season impact. And for small commercial vehicles, it remains quite stable.
我認為在 M&HCV 貨運方面,我們已經看到了一些疲軟,但我可能可以將其歸因於節後趨勢的下降。因此對未來的預期依然強勁。在小費支付者方面,情緒指數略有改善。這也是意料之中的,因為上一次事故發生在雨季,自卸車使用率較低。在 ILCV 方面,由於節後的影響,它再次略有下降。對於小型商用車來說,它仍然相當穩定。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. And linked to that question from Rajesh [Ayyanar]. In the medium term, how will the fuel mix change happen in as far as your opinion between CNG, EV adoption, buses, ICBM, how should one think about it?
是的。並與 Rajesh [Ayyanar] 提出的問題相聯繫。從中期來看,就您的看法而言,壓縮天然氣、電動車、公車、洲際彈道飛彈之間的燃料結構將如何變化,我們該如何看待它?
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
So I think as we go ahead, the pathway is going to be through CNG or LNG. As far as CNG penetration is concerned, currently, I think the bigger anxiety is the volatility in CNG prices because the CNG prices actually went up very fast. So that is a bigger anxiety in the minds of the customers. With the actions that the government has taken and once the CNG prices do stabilize at this level or a bit lower level, the CNG vehicles do have an inherent TCO advantage. So one will see a fair bit of penetration happening again in ILCV and SCV segments. As far as long range is concerned, yes, I think a few customers will start coming in because I think OEMs have addressed the range issue. So we have some trucks which we launched, which can run for 1,000 kilometers on CNG. As far as LNG is concerned, I think this depends on availability of filling infrastructure. Otherwise, I think we are ready with the product. In terms of EV, I think one will clearly see higher penetration in buses first because of the government push and one will also see a good penetration happening in the last mile distribution due to the pull from companies who are having their own net zero greenhouse gas emission commitments. I think that's how we will see EV penetration happening more in buses and small commercial vehicles. Shailesh?
因此我認為,隨著我們繼續前進,路徑將是通過 CNG 或 LNG。就CNG普及率而言,目前,我認為更大的擔憂是CNG價格的波動,因為CNG價格實際上上漲非常快。這讓顧客心裡更加焦慮。隨著政府採取措施,一旦 CNG 價格穩定在這個水平或略低的水平,CNG 汽車確實具有固有的 TCO 優勢。因此,我們會看到 ILCV 和 SCV 領域再次出現相當程度的滲透。就長距離而言,是的,我認為一些客戶會開始進來,因為我認為 OEM 已經解決了距離問題。我們推出了一些卡車,使用 CNG 可以行駛 1,000 公里。就液化天然氣而言,我認為這取決於加氣基礎設施的可用性。否則,我認為我們已經準備好產品了。就電動車而言,我認為,由於政府的推動,人們首先會看到公車的普及率明顯提高,而且由於那些做出溫室氣體淨零排放承諾的公司的拉動,最後一英里配送的普及率也將提高。我認為這就是我們將看到電動車在公車和小型商用車中得到更廣泛的普及的原因。沙伊萊什?
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
I have to talk about the CNG?
我要講一下CNG嗎?
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Girish Arun Wagh - President of Commercial Vehicles Business Unit & Executive Director
Yes.
是的。
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
My view is that saying if we have to take a view by the end of this decade, the mix will be around 25% to 30% for CNG, 25% to 30% for EV and rest would be gasoline but the high mix of (inaudible) fuels because that is the direction investings are going, diesel would significantly come down below 5%. So that's probably the outlook.
我的觀點是,如果我們要在本世紀末做出判斷,那麼壓縮天然氣(CNG)佔比將在 25% 至 30% 左右,電動車(EV)佔比將在 25% 至 30% 左右,其餘為汽油,但(聽不清楚)燃料的高混合比,因為這是投資的方向,柴油的比重將大幅降至 5% 以下。這可能就是前景。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
The question from Binay Singh, Morgan Stanley. We are seeing price cuts in EVs in China and other regions. Do you see that as a risk to ICE pricing for the entry-level cars as JLR launches EVs as well. That's another angle as well.
這個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Binay Singh。我們看到中國和其他地區的電動車價格正在下降。由於捷豹路虎也推出了電動車,您是否認為這會對入門級 ICE 汽車的定價構成風險?這也是另一個角度。
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Sorry, Balaji.
對不起,巴拉吉。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
No I'm saying with the price cuts that we are seeing in China, do you see that as a risk to the ICE pricing for Jaguar entry and mid LRs, and EV profitability as JLR launches its EVs in 2024?
不,我是說,我們看到中國市場正在降價,您是否認為這會對捷豹入門級和中型 LR 的 ICE 定價以及捷豹路虎在 2024 年推出電動車時的電動車盈利能力構成風險?
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Yes. No, we don't at this point actually recognize that a lot of our smaller units, smaller value transaction price units in China are generated within China, within the joint venture. We don't see any risk at this point in time or any evidence at this time to weakening of prices for any of our imported models in fact, the VME referenced back to the previous question, the average VME last quarter, which will be the first sign of that weakness, of course, the average VME last quarter was as low as 0.8% across all units imported into China. So we're seeing very, very low levels and strong demand at this point.
是的。不,目前我們實際上還沒有認識到,我們在中國的許多較小單位、較小價值的交易價格單位是在中國境內、在合資企業內產生的。目前,我們沒有看到任何風險,也沒有證據表明我們的任何進口車型價格會走弱。因此,我們看到目前的水平非常低,但需求強勁。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Yes. Thanks. And on the (inaudible) side, we already answered the question on the EV price cuts that have happened, but there's another angle to it. With the raw material cost index not coming down, how do you see the EV profitability going forward?
是的。謝謝。從(聽不清楚)方面來說,我們已經回答了有關電動車價格下降的問題,但還有另一個角度。在原物料成本指數沒有下降的情況下,您如何看待未來電動車的獲利能力?
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
Shailesh Chandra - MD of TMPV & TPEM
I think we need to keep in mind that, one, there is a relative premium that a customer is ready to pay for EVs versus ICE, and that is about 25% to 30%. ICE prices are going to go up. So therefore, it will support the higher price for EVs while the secular trend of the components for EVs will keep on coming down, there has been a temporary volatility that we have seen in the battery prices, which were very steep last calendar year, but already have started moderating. In this year, we have in a more long-term view of the battery prices. Rest of the companies are coming down also as the scale is increasing. So there will be short-term pressure on the cost because of these temporary volatilities, but we have to focus on driving the scale because that is what is going to bring down the cost further as we are driving the deeper localization. You also need to remember that the next 3, 4 years will be the benefit of PLI also as we indicated. So I think keeping all these in mind, it is going to be in midterm, very beneficial from a mix perspective.
我認為我們需要記住,首先,客戶願意為電動車支付的價格比內燃機汽車高出約 25% 至 30%。 ICE 價格將會上漲。因此,它將支持電動車的更高價格,而電動車零件的長期趨勢將持續下降,我們看到電池價格出現了暫時的波動,去年電池價格非常高,但現在已經開始緩和。今年,我們對電池價格的眼光更加長遠。隨著規模的擴大,其他公司也在倒閉。因此,這些暫時的波動會在短期內給成本帶來壓力,但我們必須專注於擴大規模,因為隨著我們推動更深層的在地化,這將進一步降低成本。您還需要記住,正如我們指出的那樣,未來 3 至 4 年也將是 PLI 的利益。因此,我認為考慮到所有這些,從中期來看,從混合角度來看這將是非常有益的。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thank you. Thanks, Shailesh. I think with that, we are done with all the questions that have been asked in terms of just the theme rather the names. So if there's anything else that you want us to answer, I would suggest to reach out to the Investor Relations team, and we'll be more than happy to respond to you. So thanks a lot for taking the time to attend this session. We hope you found it informative and look forward to catching up with you soon. Thank you.
謝謝。謝謝,Shailesh。我想,這樣我們就回答完了所有關於主題而不是名稱的問題。因此,如果您還有其他需要我們解答的問題,我建議您聯絡投資人關係團隊,我們非常樂意為您解答。非常感謝您抽出時間參加本次會議。我們希望您發現本文內容有用,並期待很快與您聯繫。謝謝。
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Adrian Mardell - Interim CEO
Thanks Balaji. Thank you.
謝謝 Balaji。謝謝。
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Pathamadai Balachandran Balaji - Group CFO
Thanks Adrian and team.
感謝 Adrian 和他的團隊。