泰森食品 (TSN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Tyson Foods Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加泰森食品2023年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）另請注意，今天的活動正在被記錄。

And at this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Sean Cornett, VP of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在，我想把發言權交給投資者關係副總裁 Sean Cornett。先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to Tyson Foods' Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call, Tyson's President and Chief Executive Officer, Donnie King; and Chief Financial Officer, John R. Tyson, will provide some prepared remarks followed by Q&A. Additionally, joining us today are Brady Stewart, Group President, Beef, Pork and Chief Supply Chain Officer; Melanie Boulden, Group President, Prepared Foods and Chief Growth Officer; Wes Morris, Group President, Poultry; and Amy Tu, President, International. We have also provided a supplemental presentation, which may be referenced on today's call and is available on Tyson's Investor Relations website and via the link in our webcast.

早安，歡迎參加泰森食品 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，泰森總裁兼執行長唐尼金 (Donnie King)；財務長 John R. Tyson 將發表一些準備好的講話，然後進行問答。此外，今天與我們一起的還有牛肉、豬肉集團總裁兼首席供應鏈官 Brady Stewart；梅蘭妮·博爾登 (Melanie Boulden)，集團預製食品總裁兼首席增長官；韋斯·莫里斯 (Wes Morris)，家禽集團總裁；以及國際總裁 Amy Tu。我們還提供了一份補充演示文稿，可以在今天的電話會議上參考，也可以在泰森的投資者關係網站上或透過我們的網路廣播中的連結取得。

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future. These forward-looking statements made during this call are provided pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include comments reflecting our expectations, assumptions or beliefs about future events or performance that do not relate solely to historical periods. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and assumptions, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our current projection. Please refer to our forward-looking statement disclaimers on Slide 2 as well as our SEC filings for additional information concerning risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our projections. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將就未來的預期做出前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述是根據 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款提供的。前瞻性陳述包括反映我們對未來事件或表現的預期、假設或信念的評論，這些評論不僅僅與歷史時期有關。這些前瞻性陳述受某些風險、不確定性和假設的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預測有重大差異。有關可能導致我們的實際結果與預測存在重大差異的風險因素的更多信息，請參閱幻燈片 2 上的前瞻性聲明免責聲明以及我們的 SEC 文件。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please note that references to earnings per share, operating income and operating margin in our remarks are on an adjusted basis unless otherwise noted. For reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings press release.

請注意，除非另有說明，我們評論中提到的每股收益、營業收入和營業利潤率都是經過調整的。有關這些非 GAAP 指標與其對應的 GAAP 指標的調節，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。

Now I'll turn the call over to Donnie.

現在我將把電話轉給唐尼。

Thanks, Sean, and thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. Earlier this morning, we announced our fourth quarter and total fiscal year 2023 results. In Q4, we saw another quarter of sequential improvements in our overall earnings as we continue to make good progress in improving our performance. And I want to thank our team members for delivering these results in what continues to be a tough macro environment.

謝謝，肖恩，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天早些時候，我們公佈了 2023 財年第四季和全年業績。在第四季度，隨著我們在改善業績方面繼續取得良好進展，我們的整體收益又連續一個季度有所改善。我要感謝我們的團隊成員在持續艱難的宏觀環境下取得這些成果。

Consumer demand for protein remains relatively stable, and we are well positioned to meet this demand, giving us confidence in our long-term prospects. Q4 also wraps up an unusual fiscal year where all of our core protein categories were challenged and yet one where our branded business delivered solid results. While we continue to see challenging market dynamics, our broader portfolio is set up well for the future.

消費者對蛋白質的需求保持相對穩定，我們完全有能力滿足這種需求，這使我們對長期前景充滿信心。第四季也結束了一個不尋常的財政年度，在這一年中，我們所有的核心蛋白質類別都受到了挑戰，但我們的品牌業務卻取得了穩健的業績。儘管我們繼續看到充滿挑戰的市場動態，但我們更廣泛的投資組合已為未來做好了準備。

As we anticipated, our results continued to improve sequentially in Chicken, with Q4 building on the momentum we gained in Q3 as part of a much better second half of fiscal '23 after a difficult start. Our brands continued to perform well, and we grew market share across our core business lines, outperforming our peers. This helped our Prepared Foods segment generate solid adjusted operating income in 2023. Market dynamics in beef and pork were challenging this past year, causing spread compression, although for different reasons. Despite these headwinds, our goal remains to be best-in-class operators so that we can manage these businesses as efficiently as possible.

正如我們預期的那樣，雞肉業務的業績繼續環比改善，第四季度鞏固了我們在第三季度取得的勢頭，這也是 2023 財年下半年在經歷了艱難的開局後表現好轉的一部分。我們的品牌繼續表現良好，我們的核心業務線的市場份額不斷增長，超越了同行。這幫助我們的預製食品部門在 2023 年實現了穩健的調整後營業收入。去年，牛肉和豬肉的市場動態充滿挑戰，儘管原因不同，但導致價差壓縮。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們的目標仍然是成為一流的營運商，以便我們能夠盡可能有效地管理這些業務。

We remain focused on what we can control. One of our priorities is to execute with excellence. Our operations have improved across the business, and we have a long runway of opportunities to perform better. Controlling the controllables extends to capital allocation as well, where we will remain disciplined with CapEx and working capital.

我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我們的首要任務之一是卓越地執行。我們的整個業務運作都得到了改善，我們還有很長的路要走，可以取得更好的業績。控制可控因素也延伸到資本配置，我們將對資本支出和營運資本保持紀律。

We continue to execute our multi-point plan focused on efficiency and modernization. You've seen us take bold actions to improve performance, and everything remains on the table to drive operational excellence and address inefficiencies. Our plan is working, and we are seeing tangible benefits of our efforts to end fiscal 2023. I remain very confident in our long-term strategy and optimistic about our future. Rest assured that we are leaving no stone unturned to drive long-term value for our shareholders.

我們將繼續執行以效率和現代化為重點的多點計劃。您已經看到我們採取大膽行動來提高績效，並且我們仍在盡一切努力推動卓越營運並解決效率低下的問題。我們的計劃正在發揮作用，我們也看到了我們在2023財年末的努力所帶來的實際效益。我對我們的長期策略仍然充滿信心，並對我們的未來充滿信心。請放心，我們將竭盡全力為股東創造長期價值。

Let's dive into an overview of segment performance by starting with an update on market share. Our brands continued to outpace the broader food and beverage category in volume growth across the retail channel in Q4. Our volume grew while the overwhelming majority of food and beverage peers saw volume declines. Our core business lines, including the iconic retail brands Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm and Ball Park, saw Q4 volume growth of 3.2% versus last year, far outpacing our competition. Those 4 brands also all hold favorite brand status with consumers over our nearest competitor by a wide margin.

讓我們先從市場佔有率的更新開始，深入了解細分市場的表現概況。第四季度，我們品牌在零售通路的銷售成長持續超過更廣泛的食品和飲料類別。我們的銷量成長了，而絕大多數食品和飲料同行的銷量卻下降了。我們的核心業務線，包括標誌性零售品牌泰森、吉米迪恩、希爾郡農場和鮑爾公園，第四季度銷量較去年同期增長 3.2%，遠遠超過我們的競爭對手。這四個品牌也都以遙遙領先的優勢，成為消費者最愛的品牌。

We continue to show market share leadership in most of the retail categories in which we compete, delivering both pound and dollar share gains across our core business lines. We are accelerating foodservice, where our Focus 6 categories, including value-added chicken, breakfast sausage, dinner sausage, pepperoni pizza toppings, bacon and Philly steaks, outpaced the broadline industry and volume growth in the quarter both versus last year and sequentially. We have a strong foodservice portfolio and are aligning with key customers as we build momentum for the future.

我們繼續在參與競爭的大多數零售類別中保持市場份額領先地位，並在核心業務線上實現了英鎊和美元份額的成長。我們正在加速餐飲服務，其中我們的重點 6 個類別，包括增值雞肉、早餐香腸、晚餐香腸、意大利辣香腸披薩配料、培根和費城牛排，本季度的綜合行業和銷量增長均超過了去年同期和上一季度。我們擁有強大的餐飲服務組合，並與主要客戶保持一致，為未來發展積蓄力量。

Speaking of winning with customers, we're proud to have made the top 10 for the second year in a row in the most recent Kantar PoweRankings. In fact, Tyson finished in the top 10 in 7 of the 9 categories they measure as we continue to focus on meeting customer needs and planning the future together with them.

說到贏得客戶，我們很自豪在最新的 Kantar PoweRankings 中連續第二年躋身前十名。事實上，泰森在他們衡量的 9 個類別中的 7 個類別中都名列前十，因為我們繼續專注於滿足客戶需求並與他們共同規劃未來。

Moving to our segments, beginning with Prepared Foods. As I mentioned, our brands performed well in Q4, in fact, over the last year. Nearly 3/4 of U.S. households purchased a Tyson core business line product, which is an increase of 90 basis points. While this is impressive across our portfolio, it's worth noting that our product with the highest penetration rate is only in about 1/3 of households, leaving us room for continued growth. This performance in retail helped Prepared Foods have a solid year in fiscal '23 with strong growth in AOI.

轉到我們的細分市場，從預製食品開始。正如我所提到的，我們的品牌在第四季度，事實上，在去年同期表現良好。近四分之三的美國家庭購買了泰森核心業務線產品，增幅達90個基點。雖然這在我們的產品組合中令人印象深刻，但值得注意的是，我們普及率最高的產品僅覆蓋約 1/3 的家庭，這為我們留下了持續增長的空間。零售業的這一表現幫助Prepared Foods在23財年取得了穩健的業績，AOI也實現了強勁成長。

As you know, our branded foods business is a strategic growth pillar for the future. We believe it is imperative to support our brands with marketing and advertising. As consumers begin to face what could be a more difficult economic environment, we ramped up our MAP support for our brands in the second half of the year, and we'll continue to do so as we move into fiscal 2024.

如您所知，我們的品牌食品業務是未來的策略成長支柱。我們認為，透過行銷和廣告來支持我們的品牌至關重要。隨著消費者開始面臨可能更加困難的經濟環境，我們在下半年加大了對我們品牌的 MAP 支持，並且我們將在進入 2024 財年時繼續這樣做。

While the full year AOI for Chicken was a modest loss, our progress toward improved performance continued in Q4 with sequential improvement versus Q3. In fact, this is the second consecutive quarter with more than $100 million in sequential AOI increases. I'm proud of what our team has accomplished over the past 6 months. Not only did we hold on to the operational enhancements we made in Q3, we made incremental improvements in yield and in our live operations. This allowed us to take advantage of improving market conditions, including lower grain costs, leading to a positive margin to end the year. As we head into a new fiscal year, we expect a better outlook for input costs while seeing the benefits of some of the bold actions we took this year.

雖然雞肉業務的全年 AOI 略有虧損，但我們在第四季度繼續朝著業績改善的方向前進，與第三季度相比有所改善。事實上，這是連續第二季 AOI 增幅超過 1 億美元。我為我們團隊在過去六個月裡的成就感到自豪。我們不僅堅持了第三季所做的營運改進，在收益和現場營運方面也取得了逐步的改善。這使我們能夠利用不斷改善的市場條件，包括較低的糧食成本，從而在年底實現正利潤。隨著我們進入新的財政年度，我們預計投入成本前景會更好，同時也看到我們今年採取的一些大膽行動帶來的效益。

Coming into fiscal '23, we expected Beef to be under pressure due to limited cattle supply. This trend held true as cattle costs appreciated at a faster rate than the wholesale price of boxed beef, eroding export opportunities due to a strong U.S. dollar and low price of competing exporters and ultimately creating a very tight spread scenario. We also expected to see signs of rebuild of the herd to surface as cattle prices moved higher. However, this did not materialize. Until significant heifer retention and subsequent herd rebuilding takes place, we expect challenging supply conditions to remain. In this context, while the timing remains uncertain, we will be prepared by focusing on operational discipline.

進入 23 財年，我們預計由於牛肉供應有限，牛肉將面臨壓力。這種趨勢確實存在，因為牛成本的上漲速度快於盒裝牛肉的批發價格，由於美元走強和競爭出口商的低價，出口機會受到侵蝕，最終形成了非常緊張的價差局面。隨著牛價上漲，我們也預計會看到牛群重建的跡象。然而，這並未實現。我們預計，在大量小母牛被保留下來並隨後重建牛群之前，供應狀況仍將十分艱難。在此背景下，雖然時間尚不確定，但我們將透過注重操作紀律做好準備。

Moving to Pork. As you know, in fiscal '23, the industry suffered from supply and demand imbalances, which negatively impacted spreads. While we are seeing some signs of improving spreads and lower grain costs, there is still an imbalance between supply and demand of pork. Our team is focused on running the business as efficiently as possible while continuing to review all the options. We saw significant sequential and year-over-year improvement in AOI in Q4 driven primarily by improving spreads and operational enhancements.

轉向豬肉。如您所知，在 23 財年，該行業遭受了供需失衡的影響，這對利差產生了負面影響。雖然我們看到價差改善和糧食成本下降的一些跡象，但豬肉供需仍然存在不平衡。我們的團隊致力於盡可能有效率地經營業務，同時繼續審查所有選項。我們看到第四季度的 AOI 環比和同比都有顯著改善，這主要得益於利差的改善和營運的增強。

Before I turn the call over to John to review our financials and FY '24 guidance, I want to give you my priorities for the coming year. First is improving our financial strength with a focus on cash. I want to emphasize that we will be disciplined and prudent with capital while remaining committed to our dividend as the primary way of returning cash to shareholders. As you saw in our earnings press release this morning, we increased our dividend for the 12th consecutive year.

在我將電話轉給約翰來審查我們的財務狀況和 24 財年指導之前，我想先告訴大家我對來年的優先事項。首先是增強我們的財務實力，重點是現金。我想強調的是，我們將嚴格、審慎地使用資本，同時繼續致力於將股利作為向股東返還現金的主要方式。正如您在我們今天早上發布的收益新聞稿中看到的，我們連續第 12 年增加了股息。

We will continue to evaluate our production footprint and network to drive efficiencies. As you saw, we've made significant changes in Chicken by announcing the closure of 6 of our older, less efficient plants, which we expect to improve our capacity utilization and mix.

我們將繼續評估我們的生產足跡和網路以提高效率。正如您所看到的，我們對雞肉業務做出了重大改變，宣布關閉 6 家老舊、效率較低的工廠，我們希望此舉能提高我們的產能利用率和產品組合。

In a similar move to leverage efficiencies and reduce network redundancies, we also recently made the difficult decision to take 2 of our smaller Fresh Meats case-ready value-added facilities off-line. Production from these locations will shift to larger, more efficient plants, and our harvest capacity, sales volume and importantly, our customers will see no impact. We are reviewing whether there are similar opportunities across our segments.

為了提高效率並減少網路冗餘，我們最近也做出了一個艱難的決定，將 2 家規模較小的新鮮肉類即食增值設施下線。這些地點的生產將轉移到更大、更有效率的工廠，我們的收穫能力、銷售量以及更重要的是我們的客戶將不會受到影響。我們正在審查我們的各個領域是否存在類似的機會。

In Chicken, we will remain focused on further enhancing our competitiveness going forward. Prepared Foods was the profit engine for the company last year. We want to sustain and build on that strength by supporting our brands and driving momentum in foodservice while being responsive to changes in the market conditions. Some of the key focus areas are making better use of our data, shifting more of our MAP support to digital media and being disciplined with revenue management.

在雞肉方面，我們將繼續致力於進一步提高我們的競爭力。去年，預製食品是該公司的利潤引擎。我們希望透過支持我們的品牌、推動餐飲服務的發展勢頭以及響應市場條件的變化來維持和發展這一優勢。一些重點關注領域是更好地利用我們的數據，將更多的 MAP 支援轉移到數位媒體，並嚴格進行收入管理。

In Beef, multiple outcomes are possible during the current cattle cycle. We believe we have best-in-class assets and team members and are aligning with the right suppliers and customers, giving us confidence that we'll be prepared for all of them. In Pork, we believe we have a bright future ahead of us and are excited about the team we've built that continues to drive operational improvements and synergies with our Prepared Foods business.

在牛肉方面，當前的牛週期內可能會出現多種結果。我們相信，我們擁有一流的資產和團隊成員，並與合適的供應商和客戶保持一致，這使我們有信心為所有問題做好準備。在豬肉領域，我們相信我們擁有光明的未來，並且對我們建立的團隊感到興奮，該團隊將繼續推動營運改進並與我們的預製食品業務產生協同效應。

As we said before, we are taking a hard look at our cost structure to drive operational excellence. Our ongoing productivity initiatives are focused on things that can be deployed at scale enterprise-wide, including procurement, logistics and digitalization. These are a few of the initiatives that will make us a fundamentally stronger business as we go forward.

正如我們之前所說，我們正在認真審視我們的成本結構，以推動卓越營運。我們正在進行的生產力計劃專注於可以在整個企業範圍內部署的事物，包括採購、物流和數位化。這些舉措將使我們在未來的發展中從根本上變得更加強大。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Donnie. Let me start with a quick summary of our total company results and then review our individual segments. Our sales were down year-over-year in Q4 and for fiscal '23 driven by Pork and Chicken, where we saw a reduction in price per pound. The decline in adjusted operating profit for both periods was driven by lower profitability in Beef and Chicken. While profit in Q4 was down substantially versus last year, it's important to note that it continued to improve on a sequential basis, and adjusted EPS more than doubled compared to Q3. Challenges remain, but we continue to drive efficiencies and improve our operations, and we believe we're headed in the right direction.

謝謝你，唐尼。讓我先簡單總結一下我們公司的整體業績，然後再回顧一下各部門。我們的第四季和 23 財年的銷售額年減，主要是因為豬肉和雞肉的每磅價格下降。兩個時期調整後營業利潤的下降是由於牛肉和雞肉獲利能力下降所致。雖然第四季的利潤與去年相比大幅下降，但值得注意的是，其利潤環比繼續改善，調整後的每股收益與第三季度相比增長了一倍多。挑戰依然存在，但我們將繼續提高效率、改善運營，並相信我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

Now on to the individual segment results, starting with Prepared Foods. In Prepared Foods, revenue was down modestly in Q4 year-over-year, driven by lower bacon pricing. This lower pricing was offset by volume growth, which highlights the strength of our brands. AOI improved slightly year-over-year despite lower sales. Our ongoing productivity initiatives and easing inflation offset lower pricing, increased marketing, advertising and promotional support and the onset of start-up costs for our new facilities.

現在來看看各個細分市場的結果，從預製食品開始。在熟食方面，由於培根價格下跌，第四季營收較去年同期略有下降。較低的價格被銷售的成長所抵消，這凸顯了我們品牌的實力。儘管銷售額下降，但 AOI 年比略有改善。我們正在進行的生產力措施和通膨緩和了較低的價格、增加的行銷、廣告和促銷支援以及新設施的啟動成本。

AOI margin declined sequentially in Q4 due to seasonality, increased brand support and start-up costs. However, the $151 million of AOI this segment generated is the second highest Q4 result in the past 5 years. And full year fiscal '23 AOI grew by more than $100 million, representing growth of nearly 14% year-over-year.

由於季節性、品牌支持增加和啟動成本，AOI 利潤率在第四季度環比下降。然而，該部門產生的 1.51 億美元 AOI 是過去 5 年內第四季第二高的業績。 23 財年全年 AOI 成長超過 1 億美元，較去年同期成長近 14%。

Now moving to Chicken. Sales declined 10% year-over-year in the quarter, driven by lower pricing, reflecting primarily lower commodity protein prices. Volume grew modestly in Q4 versus last year, driven by continued sell-through of finished goods inventory, and this was partially offset by a decline in production. This decrease in production highlights our ongoing focus on balancing supply with our customers' demand.

現在轉向雞肉。本季銷售額年減 10%，主要原因是價格下降，這主要反映了商品蛋白質價格的下降。受成品庫存持續銷售的推動，第四季度銷售與去年同期相比略有增長，但產量下降部分抵消了這一增長。產量的下降凸顯了我們持續專注於平衡供應和客戶需求。

Year-over-year profitability declined, primarily due to lower commodity chicken pricing, but this was partially offset by lower input costs and operational efficiencies. On a sequential basis, lower grain cost and productivity enhancements drove another quarter of AOI improvement. In fact, when we compare to Q4 to Q2, Chicken AOI increased by more than $240 million.

獲利能力較去年同期下降，主要原因是商品雞肉價格下降，但投入成本和營運效率的降低部分抵消了下降。與上一季相比，較低的穀物成本和生產率的提高推動了 AOI 的另一個季度的改善。事實上，當我們將第四季度與第二季度進行比較時，雞肉 AOI 增加了 2.4 億美元以上。

In Beef, revenue increased modestly year-over-year in Q4 with lower head throughput, offset by higher pricing. Operating profit was down, reflecting compressed spreads primarily due to higher cattle costs. As we have been discussing all year, Beef is likely to continue to face headwinds, including in fiscal '24 as we don't expect the ongoing tightening of cattle supply and spread compression to abate until herd rebuilding is underway.

牛肉業務方面，第四季營收較去年同期略有成長，但產量下降，且價格上漲。營業利益下降，主要反映因牛隻成本上漲導致利差縮小。正如我們全年都在討論的那樣，牛肉可能會繼續面臨阻力，包括在 24 財年，因為我們預計，在牛群重建開始之前，持續的牛肉供應緊縮和價差壓縮不會減弱。

Moving on to Pork. Revenue was down nearly 7%, driven primarily by lower pricing due to softer global demand. AOI for the quarter was a modest loss. But importantly, it increased by more than $40 million year-over-year and by more than $60 million sequentially as spreads improved along with the operating performance.

繼續討論豬肉。收入下降近 7%，主要原因是全球需求疲軟導致價格下降。本季的 AOI 略有虧損。但重要的是，隨著利差和經營業績的改善，其利潤同比增長了 4000 多萬美元，環比增長了 6000 多萬美元。

Before moving to our capital priorities, it's worth noting that our International business posted solid Q4 and fiscal '23 results driven by growing penetration across our key markets and channels. We remain focused on market share growth and continued operational excellence as we ramp up our new facilities.

在討論我們的資本重點之前，值得注意的是，由於我們在主要市場和管道的滲透率不斷提高，我們的國際業務在第四季度和 23 財年取得了穩健的業績。在擴大新設施的同時，我們仍將專注於市場份額的成長和持續的卓越營運。

Now to our financial position and capital priorities. We're building financial strength, investing in our business and returning cash to shareholders, primarily via our dividend, remain the priorities of our capital allocation strategy. As Donnie said earlier, we will remain disciplined and prudent with capital. We came into fiscal '23 with a plan to spend roughly $2.5 billion in CapEx. As you saw, we ended up reducing our spend by $600 million as we reacted to market conditions, driving lower profitability and impacting our operating cash flow. We were also disciplined in managing working capital, which was a source of cash this year.

現在談談我們的財務狀況和資本優先事項。我們正在增強財務實力、投資我們的業務並向股東返還現金（主要透過股息），這仍然是我們資本配置策略的重點。正如唐尼之前所說，我們將對資本保持紀律和審慎的態度。進入 23 財年，我們計劃投入約 25 億美元的資本支出。正如您所看到的，由於我們對市場狀況做出了反應，最終減少了 6 億美元的支出，這導致盈利能力下降並影響了我們的營運現金流。我們也嚴格管理營運資金，這是今年的現金來源。

We ended the year with $3 billion of liquidity and net leverage of just over 4x. Our balance sheet management approach remains unchanged as we are committed to building financial strength, maintaining our investment-grade credit rating and returning to net leverage of at or below 2x net debt to EBITDA. During the year, we returned $670 million to shareholders via dividends and $354 million in share repurchases, primarily to offset dilution. We remain committed to maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy, ensuring that we deploy resources to maximize long-term shareholder value.

截至年底，我們的流動資金為 30 億美元，淨槓桿率略高於 4 倍。我們的資產負債表管理方法保持不變，因為我們致力於增強財務實力，維持我們的投資等級信用評級，並將淨槓桿率恢復到淨債務與 EBITDA 比率的 2 倍或以下。本年度，我們透過股息向股東返還了 6.7 億美元，並透過股票回購返還了 3.54 億美元，主要是為了抵銷稀釋。我們始終致力於維持嚴謹的資本配置策略，確保我們部署的資源能最大化長期股東價值。

Now let's review our outlook for fiscal 2024. Fiscal '23 was a challenging year, and we took a hard look at how we manage the business in times like these and how we can better communicate and manage expectations for investors. Our focus for fiscal '24 is to manage the business for profit and cash dollar generation. These are our internal goals and what we want investors to understand. So for this year, as you'll see, we are giving guidance in dollar terms instead of a margin percentage. While there are some top line uncertainties within the individual protein categories, we expect our overall sales to be approximately in line with fiscal '23.

現在讓我們回顧一下 2024 財年的展望。 23 財年是充滿挑戰的一年，我們認真審視如何在這樣的時期管理業務，以及如何更好地溝通和管理投資者的期望。我們 24 財年的重點是管理業務以實現利潤和現金流。這些都是我們的內部目標，也是我們希望投資人了解的。因此，如您所見，今年我們將以美元而不是利潤百分比來提供指導。儘管個別蛋白質類別存在一些不確定性，但我們預計整體銷售額將與 23 財年大致持平。

Moving on to the segments. Prepared Foods has been a solid and stable driver of operating cash flow. We expect that to continue in fiscal '24 driven by volume growth, disciplined revenue management and productivity, offset by MAP support for our brands and the start-up costs for our new facilities as well as risks from changes in consumer behavior. Reflecting these dynamics, our expectations for adjusted operating income is in the range of $800 million to $1 billion.

繼續討論各個部分。預製食品一直是經營現金流的堅實而穩定的動力。我們預計，在銷售成長、嚴格的收入管理和生產力的推動下，這種趨勢將在 24 財年繼續保持，但會被我們品牌的 MAP 支援和新設施的啟動成本以及消費者行為變化帶來的風險所抵消。考慮到這些動態，我們預計調整後的營業收入將在 8 億美元至 10 億美元之間。

To help navigate any potential shifts in consumer spending and sentiment, we are focused on the most efficient marketing, advertising and promotions that drive the highest ROI and the most effective consumer engagement and demand. To help meet demand in value-added brands and categories, we have previously invested in new capacity, and we expect to incur start-up costs in fiscal '24.

為了幫助應對消費者支出和情緒的任何潛在變化，我們專注於最有效的行銷、廣告和促銷，以實現最高的投資報酬率和最有效的消費者參與度和需求。為了滿足增值品牌和類別的需求，我們之前已經投資了新產能，預計在 24 財年將產生啟動成本。

On to Chicken. Our operational turnaround in Chicken is progressing as we expected. We demonstrated sequential profit improvement in Q3 and again in Q4. We anticipate operational improvements to continue into next year, and that, along with lower input costs net of pass-through pricing, this segment should generate between $400 million and $700 million of adjusted operating income.

繼續說雞肉。我們的雞肉業務的營運轉型正在按照我們的預期進行。我們在第三季和第四季實現了連續的利潤成長。我們預計營運改善將持續到明年，並且，加上扣除轉嫁定價後的投入成本降低，該部門應產生 4 億至 7 億美元的調整後營運收入。

Now on to our Beef segment. When and how fast meaningful heifer retention will take hold is uncertain at this point, and this influences our outlook for our Beef segment in 2024. Multiple outcomes are possible, and we will be prepared for all of them to operate as efficiently as we can. Our guidance for this segment is a loss of $400 million to breakeven for the year, reflecting uncertainty in market dynamics.

現在進入我們的牛肉部分。目前尚不確定何時以及如何快速實現有意義的小母牛保留，這影響了我們對 2024 年牛肉部門的展望。結果可能有多種，我們將為所有結果做好準備，盡可能有效率地運作。我們對該部門的預期是，全年虧損 4 億美元才能達到收支平衡，這反映了市場動態的不確定性。

Now on to our Pork segment, where we see momentum in the business. As spreads begin to improve and we continue to execute, we expect AOI to improve versus last year to roughly breakeven for fiscal 2024.

現在我們來看看豬肉業務，我們看到了業務的發展勢頭。隨著利差開始改善並且我們繼續執行，我們預計 AOI 將比去年有所改善，到 2024 財年大致實現收支平衡。

For the total company, we've given a range of outcomes for each segment, but we expect any outsized weakness or strength in any one area to be balanced by the remainder of the portfolio. In other words, neither the low end nor high end of the range is anticipated to happen simultaneously across all the businesses. As a result, we expect our total company AOI for fiscal '24 to be between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion.

對於整個公司而言，我們為每個部門給出了一系列結果，但我們預計任何一個領域中過大的弱點或優勢都會被投資組合的其餘部分所平衡。換句話說，預計所有業務都不會同時出現該範圍的低端或高端。因此，我們預計 24 財年公司總 AOI 將在 10 億美元至 15 億美元之間。

To further help understand the shape of the year, let me provide some context on the quarterly phasing. While we foresee more typical seasonality in our business for next year, things like start-up costs in Prepared Foods and rising cattle costs will impact Q1 and Q2 and generally shift profitability to the back half of fiscal '24. In addition, we are monitoring potential impacts to the consumer of higher interest rates and inflation, which could create some volatility.

為了進一步幫助理解今年的情況，讓我提供一些有關季度分階段的背景資訊。雖然我們預計明年我們的業務將出現更多典型的季節性，但諸如預製食品的啟動成本和牛肉成本上漲等因素將影響第一季度和第二季度，並通常會將盈利能力轉移到 24 財年的下半年。此外，我們正在監測利率上升和通貨膨脹對消費者的潛在影響，這可能會造成一些波動。

Now to round out the key P&L items. We anticipate interest expense to be roughly $400 million for the year and our tax rate to be approximately 23%. We moderated our pace of CapEx in fiscal '23 in a challenging environment. We ended the year with $375 million of expenditures in Q4, which annualizes to $1.5 billion. As we maintain tight controls on our spending in line with profitability and cash flow, we expect CapEx for the year to be between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion. While there are a range of possible outcomes for AOI, we expect to manage our working capital and CapEx so that we're free cash flow positive for the year.

現在來完善關鍵的損益項目。我們預計今年的利息支出約為 4 億美元，稅率約為 23%。在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們在 23 財年減緩了資本支出的步伐。我們第四季的支出為 3.75 億美元，年化支出為 15 億美元。由於我們根據獲利能力和現金流嚴格控制支出，我們預計今年的資本支出將在 10 億美元至 15 億美元之間。雖然 AOI 有多種可能的結果，但我們希望管理我們的營運資金和資本支出，以便我們今年的自由現金流為正。

In summary, while the current operating environment remains difficult, we are making improvements across our operations and remain optimistic on our long-term prospects. We have great teams, growing demand for our products and the right portfolio mix to win in the marketplace.

總而言之，儘管當前的經營環境依然困難，但我們正在不斷改善各項運營，並對我們的長期前景保持樂觀。我們擁有優秀的團隊、不斷增長的產品需求以及在市場上獲勝的正確產品組合。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Sean for Q&A instructions.

現在我將把電話轉回給肖恩，讓他回答問題。

Thanks, John. We will now move on to your question. Please recall that our cautions on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures apply both to our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

謝謝，約翰。我們現在來回答您的問題。請記住，我們對前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則衡量標準的警告既適用於我們準備好的評論，也適用於以下問答。接線員，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自高盛的亞當·塞繆爾爾森。

So I guess the first question, John, Donnie, I'd love to get a little bit more color as we think about the high and low end of the segment profit ranges in Chicken, Beef and Prepared Foods specifically. Kind of how do we think about what gets to the high and low end of those ranges? What do we think are the key year-on-year kind of profit drivers, increases in Chicken and decreases in Beef, in particular, to help kind of narrow the range of kind of company-level outcomes?

所以我想第一個問題，約翰，唐尼，當我們思考雞肉、牛肉和預製食品細分市場利潤範圍的高端和低端時，我希望得到更多的細節。我們怎麼能考慮達到這些範圍的高端和低端呢？我們認為主要的同比利潤驅動因素是什麼，特別是雞肉增加和牛肉減少，以幫助縮小公司層面結果的範圍？

Adam, this is Donnie. Thanks for the question this morning, and thank you for being with us. As we said earlier, 2023 was a very unusual year, one that I've not seen where all core protein categories were challenged at the same time. And at the same time, our brands continued to perform well, outperforming the broader food and beverage category. The demand for protein remains strong. We're controlling the controllables, and we're focused on efficiency, modernization and cost structure.

亞當，這是唐尼。感謝您今天上午的提問，也感謝您與我們一起接受訪問。正如我們之前所說，2023 年是非常不尋常的一年，我從未見過所有核心蛋白質類別同時受到挑戰。同時，我們的品牌繼續表現良好，超越了更廣泛的食品和飲料類別。對蛋白質的需求依然強勁。我們控制可控因素，並專注於效率、現代化和成本結構。

Over this past year, we've taken bold actions to improve performance. We're managing the business for cash. We also have pulled down our capital spend. And if you go back to '22, we spent $2.6 billion. In '23, we pulled that down to $1.9 billion, and we're projecting between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in '24. We will continue to return cash to shareholders, predominantly through the dividend. And we shared that earlier today, we had the 12th consecutive year of increasing dividends.

在過去的一年裡，我們採取了大膽的行動來提高績效。我們以現金管理業務。我們也削減了資本支出。如果你回顧 22 年，我們花了 26 億美元。 23 年，我們將這一數字降至 19 億美元，預計 24 年這一數字將在 10 億至 15 億美元之間。我們將繼續向股東返還現金，主要透過股利。我們今天早些時候分享過，我們已經連續第 12 年增加股息。

We're winning with customers and consumers. We do have advantaged brands in advantaged categories and are very proud to be in the top 10 for the second year in a row with Kantar PoweRanking. We've seen sequential improvement across all the businesses in the second half of '23. We expect fiscal '24 to be better year-over-year in cash flow and profitability, Chicken AOI improving considerably and Prepared Foods continuing to perform well.

我們正在贏得客戶和消費者的青睞。我們確實在優勢類別中擁有優勢品牌，並且非常自豪能夠連續第二年在 Kantar PoweRanking 中躋身前十名。我們看到 2023 年下半年所有業務都出現了連續改善。我們預計 24 財年的現金流和獲利能力將比去年同期有所改善，雞肉 AOI 將大幅提高，而預製食品將繼續表現良好。

In short, our plan is working and delivering tangible results. FY '24 is off to a great start, and I could not be more excited about our future. We do have a good plan. We do have the right team, and we are executing at levels I've not seen in a long, long time. And in terms of individual segments, John, do you want to add something to that?

簡而言之，我們的計劃正在發揮作用並取得實際成果。 24 財年開局良好，我對我們的未來感到無比興奮。我們確實有一個很好的計劃。我們確實擁有合適的團隊，而且我們的執行力達到了我很久很久以來從未見過的水平。就個別部分而言，約翰，您想補充一些什麼嗎？

Yes. Adam, I think your question was around what gets you to the high or bottom end of the range in a few different segments. What I can tell you is in Chicken, there's a few different things that will influence the profitability in the year. One, I think our plan, we have an aggressive operational improvement plan. And so our range reflects some different timing on how we achieve that.

是的。亞當，我認為你的問題是關於什麼能讓你達到幾個不同領域的高端或低端。我可以告訴你的是，在雞肉方面，有幾種不同的因素會影響當年的獲利能力。首先，我認為我們的計劃是積極的營運改善計劃。因此，我們的範圍反映了我們實現這一目標的不同時間。

We also expect timing benefits from the closures last year to roll through as we get into the -- around the midpoint of the year. And then, of course, there's just market movement that we can't necessarily predict, although I think recent market data would show you there's more tailwinds than there are headwinds in our Chicken segment.

我們也預計，隨著我們進入今年中期，去年關閉所帶來的時機效益將會顯現。當然，我們無法預測市場動向，但我認為最近的市場數據會顯示，我們的雞肉業務的順風比逆風多。

On Beef, the width of that range really just reflects the range of outcomes in the spread in that business. Naturally, we would expect that range to tighten as we move through the year. But just to comment on some of the movements in those markets, even Q4 for us that we just finished was better than we anticipated a quarter ago. So just acknowledging that there's a lot of movement there.

對於牛肉而言，該範圍的寬度實際上只是反映了該業務範圍內的結果範圍。當然，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這個範圍將會縮小。但僅就這些市場的一些動向進行評論，即使我們剛結束的第四季也比我們一個季度前的預期要好。因此，我們承認那裡有很多動靜。

And I think then on Prepared was the last one you asked about, that will be driven by execution, consumer demand strength, how we invest in our brands and how they perform. So I think that this range is, actually, by going to the AOI dollars, we've hopefully for you and all of our investors kind of tightened up the band of outcomes here. But there is still some natural unpredictability in just how close we can nail the number.

我認為，您最後問到的是“準備”，這將由執行力、消費者需求強度、我們如何投資我們的品牌以及它們的表現來驅動。因此我認為，這個範圍實際上是透過 AOI 美元，我們希望為您和我們所有的投資者縮小這裡的結果範圍。但我們究竟能將這個數字確定到什麼程度，仍然存在一些自然的不可預測性。

The AOI dollar guidance ranges are definitely appreciated versus the percent. And if I could, could you give a -- ask a follow-up just on cash flow. So you said free cash flow positive. Is that free cash flow positive after dividends? Or what's the -- I guess, the big plug in there would be what's -- how much working capital do you think you can release if -- given the sales and profit outlook that you have?

與百分比相比，AOI 美元指導範圍肯定受到讚賞。如果可以的話，您能否就現金流問題進行後續詢問。所以你說自由現金流是正的。股利後自由現金流是正數嗎？或者什麼是——我想，最大的插入點是什麼——考慮到你的銷售和利潤前景，你認為你可以釋放多少營運資金？

Yes. I think on working capital, the drivers will be pulling down some of the finished goods inventory, but we might give some of that back on inventory just in terms of the cattle prices and kind of what we've got on the balance sheet. As it relates to, yes, free cash flow positive, we are committed to supporting a dividend for the year. And so we've given a range of CapEx numbers that we would expect to kind of reflect wherever the AOI and EBITDA is so that we can be free cash flow positive for the year.

是的。我認為，就營運資金而言，驅動因素將拉低部分成品庫存，但我們可能會將其中一部分返還給庫存，就牛價和資產負債表而言。是的，就自由現金流為正而言，我們致力於支持今年的股息。因此，我們給出了一系列資本支出數字，我們希望這些數字能夠反映 AOI 和 EBITDA 的情況，以便我們今年能夠實現自由現金流為正。

I think to clarify one thing is that would be net of -- or that would not include any opportunistic M&A. I think we've always been pretty active in the market, evaluating opportunities. And so we don't have any predictions or news to share there. But just acknowledging that we'll consider things should they come to market during the year.

我認為需要澄清的一點是，這將是淨值——或者不包括任何機會性併購。我認為我們在市場上一直非常活躍，評估機會。因此我們沒有任何預測或新聞可以分享。但我們承認，如果它們在今年上市，我們會考慮。

Our next question comes from Andrew Strelzik from BMO.

下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Andrew Strelzik。

I'd like to actually start on the CapEx guidance, please. If you could maybe unpack where -- how you landed where you did, what the buckets are. I think you previously had talked about $1.7 billion, maybe getting as low as $1.5 billion over time. Obviously, this is lower than that. So what types of things are removed from the plan? How does that shift? And where do we go from here?

我想真正開始討論資本支出指導。如果您可以解開這個問題，請說明您是如何降落到那裡的，以及桶子是什麼。我認為您之前談到過 17 億美元，但隨著時間的推移，可能會降至 15 億美元。顯然，這個數字比這個數字還要低。那麼，哪些類型的內容從計畫中刪除了呢？那會如何轉變？那我們接下來要去哪裡呢？

Yes. I guess I'll give you 3 or 4 data points on how to think about CapEx. Number one, we communicated throughout last year that we were trending toward a $1.5 billion number, did not mean to make any commitments last year as to when we got there, although we feel as though that's the high watermark this year. And so I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, Q4 was $370 spend for us. And so that would track out to being at the high end of our range for the year.

是的。我想我會給你 3 或 4 個關於如何考慮資本支出的數據點。首先，我們去年全年都在傳達我們正朝著 15 億美元這個數字邁進的訊息，但我們去年並沒有對何時實現這一目標做出任何承諾，儘管我們覺得這是今年的最高水準。我想我在準備好的發言中提到過，第四季我們的支出為 3.7 億美元。因此，這將達到我們今年的銷售範圍的高端。

I think that the other 2 things that are worth pointing out is, number one, we have a lot of capacity expansion projects that are rolling off and finishing up as we start '24. And then last but not least, if you just think about a normalized investment level in our business, if I were to go back to before we embarked on this period of significant capital investment, $1.25 billion was probably the -- was the average number between, I think, '17 and '21. So that's just some recent history that would support the range that we're sharing today is in line with what we need to invest in our business.

我認為值得指出的另外兩件事是，第一，我們有很多產能擴張項目正在啟動並隨著 24 年的開始而完成。最後但同樣重要的一點是，如果您只考慮我們業務的正常投資水平，如果我回到我們開始這一重大資本投資時期之前，12.5 億美元可能是 - 我認為是 17 年到 21 年之間的平均數字。所以這只是一些最近的歷史，可以支持我們今天分享的範圍，這符合我們業務投資的需求。

And John, if I might add one thing to that, and you referenced some of the larger projects being behind us. I think it's important to remind everyone that in '22, we began to have an outsized capital expense. All of that was in service to making sure we had the capacity necessary to grow our branded portfolio, the value-added Chicken and Prepared Foods as well. And we've got those Danville, Virginia. We have -- also, we have Bowling Green, Kentucky and Claryville coming online, plus a number of operations coming online outside the United States.

約翰，如果我可以補充一點，你提到了我們正在進行的一些較大的項目。我認為有必要提醒大家，從 2022 年開始，我們的資本支出就變得太大了。所有這些都是為了確保我們擁有擴大品牌組合、增值雞肉和預製食品所需的能力。我們有維吉尼亞州丹維爾。我們也有－肯塔基州鮑靈格林和克拉里維爾即將上線，另外還有許多美國境外的業務即將上線。

Okay. Great. That's super helpful. And then the second question, I guess, is maybe if you think about your footprint today, your capacity utilization across your business, and you've been very, very consistent in terms of saying that you're looking for all the opportunities that are out there and those types of things across the business. So you found some more in Chicken that you've talked about.

好的。偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後我想，第二個問題是，如果您考慮一下您今天的足跡、整個業務的產能利用率，您就會發現，您一直非常非常一致地說，您正在尋找所有存在的機會以及整個業務中類似的事情。所以你在《雞肉》中發現了更多你談到的東西。

But I guess I'm just curious, if you could characterize how you think about your footprint today and how you're evaluating those opportunities, if there's anything beyond Chicken that you think might make sense at some point or maybe not since we haven't seen that yet. But just curious as you continue to go down that path.

但我想我只是好奇，如果你能描述一下你今天如何看待你的足跡以及你如何評估這些機會，你是否認為除了雞肉之外還有什麼在某個時候可能是有意義的，或者可能沒有，因為我們還沒有看到。但我只是好奇你是否會繼續沿著這條路走下去。

Sure. As we've said a number of times, and we'll continue to say this, we are evaluating everything, leaving no stone unturned. If you were to -- if you go back and look at what we've announced thus far, the 6 chicken plants and then the -- most recently, the 2 value-added case-ready plants in our Beef and Pork business, those are typical of what we're looking for. But these are typically older, less efficient, certainly not modern that require a lot of capital expenditure to try to either expand or make efficient.

當然。正如我們多次說過的，我們會繼續說，我們正在評估一切，不遺餘力。如果您回顧我們迄今為止宣布的計劃，包括 6 家雞肉工廠，以及最近在牛肉和豬肉業務中宣布的 2 家增值即食工廠，這些都是我們正在尋找的典型。但這些通常比較老舊、效率較低、絕對不是現代化的，需要大量的資本支出才能擴張或提高效率。

And so we're choosing to move that capacity to another plant. We're not wanting to give up any volume or share, and we're doing that very well. But the other thing that may not be as -- quite as apparent is because of the efficiency play in all of our core plants, it has enabled us to run lines at rate. It's allowed us to get the labor and yield and throughput on those lines that we need, but that's also been an unlock in our ability to take away some redundant capacities.

因此我們選擇將產能轉移到另一家工廠。我們不想放棄任何數量或份額，而且我們做得很好。但另一件可能不那麼明顯的事是，由於我們所有核心工廠的效率發揮，它使我們能夠按速度運行生產線。它使我們能夠獲得所需的生產線上的勞動力、產量和吞吐量，但這也釋放了我們消除一些冗餘產能的能力。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I wanted to ask first, Tyson in the past has gone back and forth a little bit about providing longer-term margin ranges by segment. Now that you're providing EBIT dollars by segment, and I would mirror, I think, Adam's thoughts about appreciating that, is it possible that at some point in the future, you might consider going back to giving us some kind of longer-term EBIT ranges instead of margin ranges?

我想先問一下，泰森過去曾反覆考慮過按部門提供長期利潤範圍的問題。既然您按部門提供了息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 美元數據，我想，我會效仿亞當對此表示讚賞的想法，是否有可能在未來某個時候，您會考慮重新為我們提供某種長期息稅前利潤範圍，而不是利潤率範圍？

Or is the goal to kind of, hey, let's see, where the business goes and then maybe that will be considered? Or is that just kind off the table at all? I know there's some people that just are always curious what your longer-term outlook is at this point, even though visibility is not great right now.

或者目標是，嘿，讓我們看看，業務會走向何方，然後也許會考慮這一點？或者這根本就不可能實現？我知道有些人總是很好奇你的長期前景如何，儘管現在的前景並不樂觀。

Ken, this is John, and we appreciate the question. I think, today, we're not backing off of the long-term guidance that we've got out there, but we're really focused on '24. And so I think the time in the future when it's appropriate and reflective of our kind of high confidence on where things are, we will give revisions if we deem that to be appropriate or reflective of our outlook. But today, we're really just talking about '24 and Q4 '23.

肯，我是約翰，我們很感謝你提出這個問題。我認為，今天我們不會放棄我們已經制定的長期指導，但我們真正關注的是 24 年。因此，我認為，在未來適當的時候，當它反映出我們對事態的高度信心時，如果我們認為這是合適的或反映了我們的觀點，我們就會做出修改。但今天，我們實際上只談論 24 年和 23 年第四季。

And then just as a quick follow-up, it was mentioned that you're still, if I can paraphrase, maybe you're kind of reviewing all of your options for your Pork business. I was just curious if there's any further insights you might be able to provide about what those options are and kind of where you are in that progress.

然後作為一個快速的後續問題，有人提到你仍然，如果我可以解釋的話，也許你正在審查你的豬肉業務的所有選擇。我只是好奇您是否能提供任何進一步的見解，關於這些選擇是什麼以及您目前處於哪個進展階段。

Yes. Thanks. I'll throw out a couple of things, and then I'll let Brady step on top of that. If you look back in '23 and supply-demand imbalance, there's a little of that occurring in Pork as we move into '24. We talk a lot about controlling the controllables, but here's what I would tell you about that. The team that we've got in place today in our Pork business is a world-class team delivering best-in-class results. I couldn't be prouder of the work that they've done.

是的。謝謝。我會拋出一些東西，然後讓布雷迪來處理它們。如果回顧 23 年的供需失衡情況，那麼進入 24 年，豬肉市場就會出現一些類似的情況。我們談了很多關於控制可控因素的事情，但我想告訴你的是。我們目前在豬肉業務中組成的團隊是一支世界一流的團隊，能夠提供一流的成果。我對他們所做的工作感到無比自豪。

But they're also working across the lines with -- as it relates to Prepared Foods and trying to unlock new opportunities. We obviously have more Prepared Foods capacity coming online. Some of the Tyson Pork raw material will be in support of that. But we're looking at each footprint in terms of capital requirements, how efficient, what it would take to make it modern and to upscale it. But then we're looking at network and how to do that. But with that, Brady, anything you would add to that?

但他們也在進行與預製食品相關的跨領域合作，並試圖發掘新的機會。顯然，我們有更多的預製食品產能上線。泰森豬肉的一些原料將支持這一點。但我們會從資本需求、效率以及如何使其現代化和升級等方面來審視每一個足跡。但我們正在研究網路以及如何做到這一點。但是，布雷迪，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Thanks, Donnie. As Donnie indicated, we've seen improvement, and John certainly in his opening remarks talked about the improvement sequentially quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in our Pork business. Again, that's driven by 2 things. One is we did see some moderate improvements relative to the spread, and we did see a significant improvement relative to us controlling our controllables. And again, that is a focus on making sure our assets operate as efficiently as possible, really focused on our mix and ensuring that we have world-class yields coming out of our assets as well.

謝謝，唐尼。正如唐尼指出的那樣，我們已經看到了改善，約翰在開場白中也談到了我們的豬肉業務逐季和逐年改善的情況。再次強調，這是由兩件事驅動的。一是，我們確實看到了相對於傳播的一些適度改善，而且我們確實看到了相對於我們控制可控因素的顯著改善。再次強調，我們的重點是確保我們的資產盡可能有效率地運作，真正專注於我們的資產組合，並確保我們的資產也能產生世界級的收益。

So when we talk about '24, again, we're looking at better than $100 million of improvement year-over-year relative to '23. We're excited about the team that we have. They've continued to really use data and analytics and ID all of the opportunities in the business. They've developed the right strategies for the future. And most importantly, they've executed on continuous improvement in mix, efficiency and yields.

因此，當我們再次談論 24 年時，我們預計與 23 年相比，年成長將超過 1 億美元。我們對擁有的團隊感到非常興奮。他們一直在真正地使用數據和分析來識別業務中的所有機會。他們為未來制定了正確的策略。最重要的是，他們在組合、效率和產量方面不斷改進。

Our next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Peter Galbo。

I wanted to unpack a little bit on Prepared Foods and the guidance for the year. Donnie, just given your commentary and some of your competitors, it seems like there is a step-up in the MAP spending and some of the promotion. And maybe the category -- some of the retail categories are getting more competitive. I just -- I was hoping maybe you could unpack that in the current environment and then kind of reconcile, again, the guidance for the year. Typically, you would see a stronger profit contribution from Prepared in the first half versus the second half of the year. And maybe this year, it seems like it might be a bit different. So anything you can do more to get more detail there.

我想稍微解釋一下預製食品和今年的指導。唐尼，根據您的評論和一些競爭對手的情況，似乎 MAP 支出和一些促銷活動都有所增加。也許某些零售類別的競爭正在變得更加激烈。我只是——我希望你可以在當前環境下解決這個問題，然後再協調今年的指導。通常，你會看到上半年的Prepared業務的利潤貢獻比下半年更大。也許今年的情況會有些不同。因此，您可以做更多的事情來獲得更多的細節。

Thank you. Let me say -- make a couple of comments, and I'll turn it over to Melanie. Let me start off by welcoming Melanie Boulden, who is our Chief Growth Officer, and she has taken over responsibility for our Prepared Foods. And she's on her first call today representing Prepared Foods. And Melanie, welcome. And let me just lay a little foundation, and I'll let Melanie close the deal.

謝謝。讓我說一下——發表幾點評論，然後我會把它交給梅蘭妮。首先，我歡迎我們的首席成長長梅蘭妮·博爾登 (Melanie Boulden)，她已接管我們的預製食品業務。今天她第一次代表Prepared Foods公司出訪。歡迎梅蘭妮。讓我先打下一點基礎，然後讓梅蘭妮完成交易。

Prepared Foods is a key growth pillar for our future. Our brands continue to perform well, even last year, even in fiscal '23, when we were challenged. We have advantaged brands in advantaged categories. So we like that, but I'll let Melanie talk to you about some of the upside to even Prepared Foods today.

預製食品是我們未來重要的成長支柱。即使在去年，即使在我們面臨挑戰的 23 財年，我們的品牌仍然表現良好。我們在優勢品類擁有優勢品牌。我們喜歡這樣，但今天我會讓梅蘭妮和你們談談預製食品的一些好處。

Peter, so let's first -- you asked about performance and wanting to kind of unpack that, if you will. Let's start with our performance in Q4. It's important to remember that the Prepared Foods business, it has some seasonality aspects that typically resulted in softer margins in Q4 compared with our full year expectations. But despite the seasonality and impacts from our start-up costs this past quarter, our margins still remained -- our margins still increased year-over-year in line with our full year expectations. And as John pointed out, this past quarter, we generated -- it's been our second highest Q4 result in the past 5 years.

彼得，首先，你問了有關性能的問題，如果你願意的話，我想對此進行解釋。讓我們從第四季的表現開始。重要的是要記住，預製食品業務具有一些季節性因素，通常會導致第四季度的利潤率與我們的全年預期相比較低。但是，儘管受到季節性因素和上個季度啟動成本的影響，我們的利潤率仍然保持不變 - 我們的利潤率仍然同比增長，符合我們的全年預期。正如約翰指出的那樣，上個季度，我們取得了過去五年來第二高的第四季業績。

And so then as I think about the full year and our outlook for 2024, I have full confidence in the growth proposition of our Prepared Foods business. As we think about fiscal year 2024, we are driving profits behind disciplined revenue growth management and price pack architecture capabilities as well as we have strong operational improvement initiatives planned.

因此，當我考慮全年和 2024 年的展望時，我對我們的預製食品業務的成長前景充滿信心。當我們考慮 2024 財年時，我們將透過嚴格的營收成長管理和價格包架構能力來推動利潤成長，同時我們也規劃了強有力的營運改善計畫。

And yes, to your point about that, we are investing for the future behind our business with increased MAP, but we're also investing behind new highly automated industry-leading production facilities to increase our capabilities in service to meet our growing demand. But I do want to say, though, as I think about 2024, it's also important to note, just like we had in Q4, we still have some start-up costs in Q1 for our new facilities, and that's probably going to impact our profit.

是的，正如您所說，我們正在透過提高 MAP 來投資未來業務，但我們也在投資新的高度自動化的行業領先生產設施，以提高我們的服務能力，滿足我們日益增長的需求。但我想說，當我考慮 2024 年時，同樣需要注意的是，就像我們在第四季度一樣，我們在第一季仍然需要為新設施支付一些啟動成本，這可能會影響我們的利潤。

And Peter, if I can add one thing. Just to answer your question, we did not mean to indicate that the seasonality in Prepared would be meaningfully different than from prior years.

彼得，如果我可以補充一點的話。只是為了回答你的問題，我們並不是說《Prepared》中的季節性與前幾年有顯著的不同。

Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. And then Donnie, maybe just to -- and I know we have Brady on the call as well, but a 2-parter on Beef. I mean it seems like you missed the window or the industry missed the window on kind of heifer retention for last year. Is that pushing out now another 6 to 12 months prior on beef cycle recovery versus kind of what you thought previously?

知道了。好的。不，這很有幫助。然後是唐尼，也許只是為了——我知道布雷迪也在通話中，但關於牛肉的討論分為兩部分。我的意思是，看起來你錯過了機會，或者說這個行業錯過了去年保留小母牛的機會。與您之前所想的相比，這是否會將牛肉週期恢復時間提前 6 至 12 個月？

And then the second piece would be, obviously, you're consolidating some of the case-ready operations that you announced last week. Historically, that was supposed to be a pretty big value driver in margining up the Beef business over time. And just I want to make sure that, that's still kind of core to the strategy. And again, removing those plants or shuttering those plants doesn't kind of knock that off the rail.

然後第二部分顯然是您正在整合上周宣布的一些準備就緒的操作。從歷史上看，這被認為是隨著時間的推移提高牛肉業務利潤率的一個相當大的價值驅動因素。我只是想確保這仍然是該戰略的核心。再說一次，移除這些工廠或關閉這些工廠並不會使其脫離軌道。

Well, thanks for the follow-up there, Peter. This is Brady. And first, touching on the question relative to heifer retention, and I think a lot of industry analysts have continued to go back to where we saw diminished supplies almost a decade ago relative to the beef cycle. And certainly, the cattle on feed number relative to heifers as a percentage is extremely high. And we'll continue to monitor that. I believe USDA indicated it was the largest on record for October.

好吧，謝謝你的跟進，彼得。這是布雷迪。首先，談到與小母牛保留相關的問題，我認為許多產業分析師繼續回顧近十年前相對於牛肉週期供應減少的情況。當然，飼養牛的數量相對於小母牛的比例非常高。我們將繼續監控此事。我相信美國農業部表示這是十月份有史以來的最大規模。

And so I think what we are looking at relative to the shape of the future certainly is maybe more of a U-shaped curve on the bottom end relative to supply as opposed to the V shape we saw back almost a decade ago as well. So we will continue to monitor heifer retention and cows relative to production capabilities and supply and really prepare for the variety of outcomes to go. We've got a solution for really those variety of potential outcomes.

因此，我認為，相對於供應而言，我們所看到的未來​​形態可能更像是一條 U 形曲線，而不是近十年前我們看到的 V 形。因此，我們將繼續監測小母牛的保留情況以及母牛的生產能力和供應情況，並為各種結果做好準備。我們已經找到了解決這些各種潛在結果的解決方案。

Relative to our case-ready assets, I think there's a few key focus areas here. Number one is we did not lose any true capacity relative to our customers. All of our customers that we currently service today will be serviced in the future. We had redundant capacity. And so this just really allows us to continue to service our current customers. And we still have opportunity to grow into the future, but we're able to do that in a much more effective cost structure as well. So still, a focus for Tyson is to get as close to our customers as we can relative to our value-added proposition.

相對於我們的案例資產，我認為這裡有幾個關鍵的重點領域。首先，相對於我們的客戶而言，我們並沒有失去任何真正的產能。我們目前服務的所有客戶將來都會得到服務。我們有多餘的產能。因此，這確實使我們能夠繼續為現有客戶提供服務。我們仍然有機會在未來發展，但我們也能夠以更有效的成本結構來實現這一目標。因此，泰森的重點仍然是根據我們的增值主張盡可能地貼近我們的客戶。

So if I could add a couple of things to that as well. I think it's important that when you're evaluating Beef, that you evaluate it across the entire cycle, which is approximately 10 years. And I will tell you then, this thing moves kind of quickly. But a year ago, I was testifying before Congress with some of my peers because Beef was making so much money. And today, we're talking about what it looks like on the downside. So my message there, and I have to tell myself this as well, is that you have to look at it across the cycle, and we do that.

因此，如果我也可以添加一些內容的話。我認為，評估 Beef 時重要的是要在整個週期內進行評估，大約是 10 年。然後我會告訴你，這個事情進展得相當快。但一年前，我和一些同行在國會作證，因為牛肉賺了很多錢。今天，我們要討論的是它的缺點。所以我要傳達的訊息是，而且我也必須告訴自己這一點，那就是你必須從整個週期來看待它，我們就是這樣做的。

But a couple of other things that, again, I would just reiterate. Don't miss the fact that we have redundant capacity and are able to shutter that. That -- don't miss the fact that we got better at what we do and in every aspect of the operational component. And so we did. But we continue to evaluate all options. But something that Brady would never say, but I'll say because he won't, but we have best-in-class assets. We have best-in-class team members. We have -- we are aligned with the right suppliers, and we have the great -- we have all the great customers that you would want to service. So we have a number of things that are lined up against -- or lined up the right way for us.

但還有幾件事我還要重申。不要忘記我們擁有冗餘容量並且能夠關閉它的事實。不要忘記，我們在工作中以及在營運的各個方面都做得更好了。我們也確實這麼做了。但我們會繼續評估所有選擇。但布雷迪永遠不會說這些話，但我會說，因為他不會說，但我們擁有一流的資產。我們擁有一流的團隊成員。我們與合適的供應商保持一致，並且我們擁有您想要服務的所有優質客戶。因此，我們面臨許多不利因素，或者說，對我們有利的因素。

Our next question comes from Ben Bienvenu from Stephens Inc.

下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Ben Bienvenu。

John, I want to follow up on a comment that you made around the Chicken guidance for next year. You noted the operational improvements you expect to make, and I think the variability from the bottom end of the range for next year to the top end is subject to the pace of that progress. But you also made a comment about the market conditions that we can all see improving. Is improved market conditions a variable that you're considering in guidance for next year for FY '24 in Chicken?

約翰，我想跟進你對明年雞肉指導的評論。您提到了期望實現的營運改進，我認為明年從最低範圍到最高範圍的變化取決於這一進展的速度。但您也對我們都能看到的改善的市場狀況發表了評論。市場條件改善是否是您在製定 2024 財年雞肉業務指引時考慮的變數？

Yes, Ben. The answer to that question is, we do factor in some range of market conditions. Although I would say in the band of our year-over-year improvement, it's probably about 2/3 of that is what we're seeing from operations, and 1/3 of that year-over-year improvement has to do with some favorable grain prices and chicken market prices is how we think about that. And then I described earlier, obviously, how we get to the different outcome within the range. Wes is here with me, and maybe I can invite you to just color a little bit more on the year, Wes.

是的，本。這個問題的答案是，我們確實考慮了一些市場條件。儘管我想說，在我們同比增長的範圍內，大概有 2/3 是我們從運營中看到的，而同比增長的 1/3 與有利的糧食價格和雞肉市場價格有關，我們是這樣認為的。然後我顯然之前描述了我們如何在範圍內獲得不同的結果。韋斯和我在一起，也許我可以邀請你為這一年多塗一點顏色，韋斯。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ben. As John said, I'd classify it 1/3 of our improvements will be baked around markets, so grains, net of meat values, 2/3 is driven by our fundamental improvements, and I can give you some examples, nice improvement in Q4 in our live production led by livability, feed conversion and hatch. Our capacity and our yields were both up, but turnover and absenteeism were down. Our service is up materially year-over-year, and we did it with $84 million less finished inventory pounds. And so trending in the right direction.

是的。謝謝你的提問，本。正如約翰所說，我認為我們改進的 1/3 將圍繞市場進行，因此穀物（扣除肉類價值）的 2/3 是由我們的基本改進推動的，我可以給你舉一些例子，在第四季度，我們的活體生產取得了顯著的改善，主要是存活率、飼料轉化率和孵化率。我們的產能和產量都上升了，但營業額和缺勤率卻下降了。我們的服務與去年同期相比有大幅成長，而成品庫存卻減少了 8,400 萬美元。因此正朝著正確的方向發展。

We also have a very disciplined supply-demand balance process in place, and so balancing supply and demand and capacity to maximize profits while servicing customers. And so we're on track, improving our fundamentals, servicing customers and shifting our mix to drive profitability. But I agree with John, 1/3 markets, 2/3 performance.

我們也建立了非常嚴謹的供需平衡流程，從而平衡供需和產能，在為客戶提供服務的同時實現利潤最大化。因此，我們正走在正確的軌道上，改善我們的基本面，為客戶提供服務，並轉變我們的產品組合，以提高獲利能力。但我同意約翰的觀點，1/3 是市場，2/3 是表現。

Very, very helpful. My second question is a follow-up question on the balance sheet for next year as it relates to the $400 million of net interest expense in 2024. John, does that include the refinancing of the $1.25 billion of debt you have maturing in August? And/or is there something else that you guys might consider, either downsizing that debt or something else to manage the balance sheet as you think about maturities in 2024?

非常非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於明年資產負債表的後續問題，因為它與 2024 年 4 億美元的淨利息支出有關。約翰，這是否包括 8 月到期的 12.5 億美元債務的再融資？或者你們還會考慮其他事情嗎，要嘛減少債務，要嘛考慮 2024 年到期的其他資產負債表管理方式？

Yes. So we'd be projecting to refinance any upcoming maturities. I think we also have a term loan that we executed earlier this year to draw in November. And so just the rebalancing of the portfolio and the combination of the fixed and floating is where you see the rate -- or the total interest expense tick up year-over-year.

是的。因此，我們計劃對任何即將到期的債務進行再融資。我想我們還有一筆今年早些時候簽署的定期貸款將於 11 月提取。因此，只要重新平衡投資組合以及固定和浮動利率的結合，您就會看到利率——或者總利息支出比去年同期上升。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

This is Rahi on for Ben. Just a question for Chicken. In terms of your factory closures, I know there's 2 already closed or in process. Can you confirm that? And also, what would you say is your current capacity utilization as of now and then maybe any stats on reduced costs? Also, I just wanted to confirm. For the $333 million write-down in fees, this relates to the 2 Fresh Meats case-ready value-added facilities you said you took off-line?

這是 Rahi 為 Ben 上場。這只是針對 Chicken 的一個問題。關於你們工廠的關閉，我知道有兩家工廠已經關閉或正在關閉中。你能證實嗎？另外，您認為目前的產能利用率是多少？有沒有關於降低成本的統計數據？另外，我只是想確認一下。對於 3.33 億美元的費用減記，這與您所說的已下線的 2 個 Fresh Meats 即食增值設施有關嗎？

So let me start off, and I'll answer the Beef question first. The write-down in Beef doesn't have anything to do with that. That was the discount rates, which drove the goodwill impairment. But in terms of Chicken, let me just state this because we've not said this in some time, our goal in Chicken is to simply be the very best in this space. That hasn't changed.

那麼首先讓我回答一下有關牛肉的問題。 Beef 的減記與此無關。這就是導致商譽減損的折扣率。但就雞肉而言，我只想說一下，因為我們已經有一段時間沒有這麼說了，我們在雞肉方面的目標就是成為這個領域中最好的。這一點沒有改變。

I can tell you that over the last 3, 4, 5 years, maybe we haven't done that to the best of our ability. We haven't competed very well, but we're getting more competitive, and we are still unlocking opportunities. And I'll let Wes share some of the things that he's doing in addition to what he's already said.

我可以告訴你，在過去的 3、4、5 年裡，也許我們還沒有盡力做到這一點。我們的競爭力還不夠強，但我們正在變得更具競爭力，我們仍在不斷釋放機會。除了他已經說過的內容之外，我還會讓韋斯分享他正在做的一些事情。

Yes. Let me see if I can answer your question. And so at this point, 5 of the 6 that we announced are -- in fact, are done producing, with the last 1 coming offline at the 1st of March. In our Q4 financials, only 2 of those would have been driving those numbers, with the remaining ones coming in Q1 and early Q2.

是的。讓我看看是否能回答你的問題。目前，我們宣布的 6 個生產基地中，有 5 個已經完成生產，最後一個生產基地將於 3 月 1 日下線。在我們的第四季財務報告中，只有其中 2 個因素推動了這些數字，其餘因素分別來自第一季和第二季初。

As for the capacity -- yes, let me go ahead and I'll touch on the capacity. Our goal is to always have room to grow with our important customers, but we have moved up materially year-over-year with both the closures and other activities. But I would remind you that mix is as important as volume in driving our profitability across our total portfolio.

至於容量——是的，讓我繼續，我將談論容量。我們的目標是始終與重要客戶保持共同成長的空間，但由於關閉工廠和其他活動，我們的業績同比實現了大幅成長。但我要提醒您，在推動我們整個投資組合的獲利能力方面，組合與數量同樣重要。

And our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

I just wanted to come back to -- you said your first priority was being disciplined with cash, but you also pointed out that you've raised the dividend. It's a modest increase, I realize that. But I guess why the rush to take it up at all? Is it just that time of year? Is there a reason with -- especially an outlook with a bit of uncertainty that you couldn't just put that on hold? Can you just help me understand that thinking? And am I hearing correctly that it sounds like the flex comes from adjusting CapEx down? Is that the right trade-off? How should we think about that?

我只是想回過頭來說——您說您的首要任務是嚴格控制現金，但您也指出您已經提高了股息。我意識到這只是適度的成長。但我想，為什麼這麼急著要接受這個提議呢？每年的這個時候都是這樣嗎？有什麼原因嗎──尤其是前景有點不確定，你不能就此擱置？你能幫我理解一下這個想法嗎？我是否聽得正確，聽起來這種彈性來自於降低資本支出？這是正確的權衡嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？

This is John. I'll take that question. So as I mentioned earlier, we remain committed to growing the dividend, preserving the dividend this year and growing it over time. I understand the question. I think our judgment was that on an absolute basis, about a 2% increase in terms of cents per share was modest and fit well within the range of outcomes for our capital allocation in '24. So I think that's how we would answer that question.

這是約翰。我來回答這個問題。正如我之前提到的，我們仍然致力於增加股息，維持今年的股息並隨著時間的推移而增加。我明白這個問題。我認為我們的判斷是，從絕對值來看，每股盈餘約 2% 的成長是適度的，並且非常符合我們 24 年資本配置的結果範圍。所以我認為這就是我們回答這個問題的方式。

If I could add something to that in terms of CapEx. As a reminder, over the last couple of years, we've made major investments in capacity, and we're pulling that back down to normal levels. We are in a good spot today in terms of the capacity to produce and to be able to produce and grow in the near term here. We'll certainly keep our eye on that, but I think another way to think about that is you're just returning to more of a historical level of capital spend.

如果我可以在資本支出方面添加一些內容。提醒一下，在過去幾年裡，我們在產能方面進行了大量投資，現在我們正在將其恢復到正常水平。就生產能力以及短期內生產和成長的能力而言，我們目前處於良好狀態。我們當然會密切關注這一點，但我認為另一種思考方式是，你只是回到了資本支出的歷史水平。

Okay. That's helpful. And I just want to follow up on the Prepared Foods commentary. This has been touched on a little bit, but you called out the difficult consumer environment and how you're trying to meet those consumers where they are. I guess, just at a higher level, can you give a sense of how you prioritize sort of volume over price? What's the key driver in terms of how you think about approaching what could be a further step-up in promotions or just how you manage that going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。我只是想跟進關於預製食品的評論。這個問題已經被稍微觸及，但是您指出了困難的消費環境以及您如何嘗試在當地滿足這些消費者的需求。我想，從更高的層面來說，您能否說明一下您是如何優先考慮銷售量而不是價格的？就您如何看待進一步提升促銷力道或如何管理未來促銷力道而言，關鍵驅動因素是什麼？

Yes. So Michael, let me first talk about our pricing strategy in totality. So we have strong revenue management capabilities as well as our leading brands, which is the foundation of our pricing strategy. And when we do implement price increases, we're focused on our profitability and the health of our brands while at the same time simultaneously being cognizant of the category, our competition and our consumer demand dynamics. And through these capabilities as well as our analytics, we can see that our elasticities are moving back to pre-COVID ranges and level. And at the end of the day, as you know, our goal is just to balance pricing and volume in a volatile commodity market.

是的。那麼邁克爾，讓我先來談談我們的整體定價策略。因此，我們擁有強大的收益管理能力以及領先的品牌，這是我們定價策略的基礎。當我們實施漲價時，我們會關注我們的獲利能力和品牌的健康，同時也要了解產品類別、競爭和消費者需求動態。透過這些能力以及我們的分析，我們可以看到我們的彈性正在恢復到 COVID 之前的範圍和水準。歸根結底，正如你所知，我們的目標只是在動蕩的商品市場中平衡價格和交易量。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Alexia Howard from Bernstein.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Alexia Howard。

Okay. So can I just start with Beef? I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that it was going to be a year of 2 halves with more pressure on profitability in the first half. Obviously, this latest quarter came through a bit better than expected, but -- and I know you don't give quarterly guidance. But are we trending at the moment towards the sort of lower end of the range, and the expectation is that things will pull around? And why would they pull around in the second half? Just curious about the magnitude of how it skews first half and second half.

好的。那我可以從牛肉開始嗎？我想您在準備好的發言中提到過，今年將分為兩個半年，上半年的獲利壓力更大。顯然，最近這個季度的表現比預期要好一些，但是——我知道你們沒有提供季度指導。但是，我們目前是否正趨向於該範圍的低端，並且預期情況會好轉？為什麼他們會在下半場扭轉局勢？我只是好奇它對上半場和下半場的影響程度有多大。

Sure, Alexia. Well, thanks for the question. And as we indicated, there is certainly a large range of outcomes, and there's a number of different supply and demand dynamics that will come into play as we move throughout the year. When we lay out our forecast and our approach, we certainly look at a variety of different inputs, including seasonality, where we see different demand behaviors from the consumer, along with what we see from a supply perspective and have balanced what we believe to be appropriate amount of heifer retention given the environment into those forecasts.

當然，亞歷克西亞。嗯，謝謝你的提問。正如我們所指出的，肯定會出現各種各樣的結果，而且隨著全年的發展，會出現許多不同的供需動態。當我們制定預測和方法時，我們當然會考慮各種不同的輸入因素，包括季節性，我們看到消費者的不同需求行為，以及我們從供應角度看到的情況，並將我們認為在特定環境下適當的小母牛保留量平衡到這些預測中。

And so really, that provides us that range of outcome that we look at for '24. We've done a really good job from a business perspective of continual improvement, which we believe relative to the industry available spreads that we see, lent itself to the performance in Q4. And we expect to see those trends relative to our true controllables move into '24, and that has provided us with the range of guidance that we provided.

因此，這實際上為我們提供了 24 年所期待的一系列結果。從業務持續改進的角度來看，我們做得非常好，我們相信，相對於我們所看到的行業可用利差，這有助於第四季度的業績。我們預計這些相對於我們真正可控因素的趨勢將進入24年，這為我們提供了一系列指引。

Okay. And then on leverage, it's kind of linked to the Beef question. I mean, if there is going to be this sort of cadence through the year, do you anticipate that leverage is going to increase? And if so, by how much? Or how do you expect that to trend from here?

好的。關於槓桿，它有點與牛肉問題有關。我的意思是，如果全年都出現這種節奏，您是否預期槓桿率會增加？如果是的話，那麼幅度是多少？或者您認為接下來的趨勢會如何？

Alexia, this is John. So we do -- would project for leverage to tick up a little bit as we move through the first part of the year. And really, what's driving that is just lapping the quarters that we'll see from the first half of last year. And so once we move past and through that, we would begin to expect our leverage numbers to start to move back down.

亞歷克西亞，這是約翰。因此，我們預計，隨著今年上半年的到來，槓桿率將會略有上升。而實際上，推動這一趨勢的只是我們從去年上半年開始看到的季度業績。因此，一旦我們度過這個階段，我們就會開始預期我們的槓桿數字將開始回落。

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, I'm showing no additional questions. We'll end today's question-and-answer session, and I'd like to turn the floor back over to Donnie King for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，目前我沒有其他問題。今天的問答環節即將結束，我想將發言權交還給唐尼金 (Donnie King)，請他做最後發言。

Thank you. While fiscal 2023 was a difficult year for our business, we finished strong and are more focused, collaborative and efficient than we were 12 months ago. While we're not yet where we want to be, our plan and the decisions we have made are moving us in the right direction, as demonstrated by a second quarter in a row of sequential improvements. In an uncertain macro environment, our priority continues to be controlling the controllables with discipline and agility. Our strategy is working. We have the right leadership team in place to deliver, and the bold actions we've taken are poised to drive long-term opportunity and shareholder value. Thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝。雖然 2023 財年對我們的業務來說是艱難的一年，但我們最終取得了良好的成績，並且比 12 個月前更加專注、協作和高效。雖然我們還沒有達到我們想要的目標，但我們的計劃和所做的決定正朝著正確的方向前進，連續第二季的持續改善就證明了這一點。在不確定的宏觀環境中，我們的首要任務仍然是用紀律和敏捷來控制可控因素。我們的策略正在發揮作用。我們擁有合適的領導團隊來履行職責，我們所採取的大膽行動有望推動長期機會和股東價值。謝謝，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議和演講就到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。