泰森食品 (TSN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Tyson Foods Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加泰森食品 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）也請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

And at this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Sean Cornett, VP of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在，我想請投資者關係副總裁 Sean Cornett 發言。先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to Tyson Foods' Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call, Tyson's President and Chief Executive Officer, Donnie King; and Chief Financial Officer, John R. Tyson, will provide some prepared remarks followed by Q&A. Additionally, joining us today are Brady Stewart, Group President, Beef, Pork and Chief Supply Chain Officer; Melanie Boulden, Group President, Prepared Foods and Chief Growth Officer; Wes Morris, Group President, Poultry; and Amy Tu, President, International.

早安，歡迎參加泰森食品 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，泰森食品總裁兼執行長唐尼金 (Donnie King) 表示：首席財務官約翰·R·泰森 (John R. Tyson) 將提供一些準備好的發言，然後進行問答。此外，今天加入我們的還有牛肉、豬肉業務集團總裁兼首席供應鏈長 Brady Stewart； Melanie Boulden，預製食品集團總裁兼首席成長長； Wes Morris，家禽業務集團總裁；以及國際總裁 Amy Tu。

We have also provided a supplemental presentation, which may be referenced on today's call and is available on Tyson's Investor Relations website and via the link in our webcast. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future. These forward-looking statements made during this call are provided pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include comments reflecting our expectations, assumptions or beliefs about future events or performance that do not relate solely to historical periods. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and assumptions, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our current projection.

我們還提供了補充演示文稿，可在今天的電話會議中引用，也可以在泰森食品的投資者關係網站上以及透過我們的網路廣播中的連結取得。在今天的電話會議中，我們將就我們對未來的期望發表前瞻性聲明。本次電話會議期間所做的這些前瞻性陳述是根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款提供的。前瞻性陳述包括反映我們對未來事件或業績的預期、假設或信念的評論，這些評論不僅與我們有關到歷史時期。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些風險、不確定性和假設的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預測有重大差異。

Please refer to our forward-looking statement disclaimers on Slide 2 as well as our SEC filings for additional information concerning risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our projections. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

請參閱投影片 2 上的前瞻性聲明免責聲明以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解有關可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的風險因素的更多資​​訊。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please note that references to earnings per share, operating income and operating margin in our remarks are on an adjusted basis unless otherwise noted. For reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings press release.

請注意，除非另有說明，否則我們的評論中提及的每股收益、營業收入和營業利潤率均經過調整。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與其相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對照組，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。

Now I'll turn the call over to Donnie.

現在我將把電話轉給唐尼。

Thanks, Sean, and thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. Earlier this morning, we announced our fourth quarter and total fiscal year 2023 results. In Q4, we saw another quarter of sequential improvements in our overall earnings as we continue to make good progress in improving our performance. And I want to thank our team members for delivering these results in what continues to be a tough macro environment.

謝謝肖恩，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天早些時候，我們公佈了第四季度和 2023 財年的整體業績。在第四季度，隨著我們在改善業績方面繼續取得良好進展，我們的整體收益又實現了一個季度的環比改善。我要感謝我們的團隊成員在仍然嚴峻的宏觀環境中取得了這些成果。

Consumer demand for protein remains relatively stable, and we are well positioned to meet this demand, giving us confidence in our long-term prospects. Q4 also wraps up an unusual fiscal year where all of our core protein categories were challenged and yet one where our branded business delivered solid results. While we continue to see challenging market dynamics, our broader portfolio is set up well for the future.

消費者對蛋白質的需求保持相對穩定，我們有能力滿足這項需求，這讓我們對長期前景充滿信心。第四季也結束了一個不尋常的財政年度，我們所有的核心蛋白質類別都受到了挑戰，但我們的品牌業務卻取得了堅實的業績。儘管我們繼續看到充滿挑戰的市場動態，但我們更廣泛的投資組合已為未來做好了準備。

As we anticipated, our results continued to improve sequentially in Chicken, with Q4 building on the momentum we gained in Q3 as part of a much better second half of fiscal '23 after a difficult start. Our brands continue to perform well, and we grew market share across our core business lines, outperforming our peers. This helped our Prepared Foods segment generate solid adjusted operating income in 2023. Market dynamics in beef and pork were challenging this past year causing spread compression, although for different reasons. Despite these headwinds, our goal remains to be best-in-class operators so that we can manage these businesses as efficiently as possible.

正如我們所預期的那樣，我們在雞肉方面的業績繼續持續改善，第四季度以我們在第三季度獲得的勢頭為基礎，作為 23 財年下半年在艱難開局後更好的一部分的一部分。我們的品牌持續表現良好，我們的核心業務線的市佔率不斷成長，表現優於同業。這幫助我們的預製食品部門在 2023 年產生了穩定的調整後營業收入。儘管出於不同的原因，去年牛肉和豬肉的市場動態面臨挑戰，導致價差壓縮。儘管存在這些不利因素，我們的目標仍然是成為一流的營運商，以便我們能夠盡可能有效地管理這些業務。

We remain focused on what we can control. One of our priorities is to execute with excellence. Our operations have improved across the business, and we have a long runway of opportunities to perform better. Controlling the controllables extends to capital allocation as well where we will remain disciplined with CapEx and working capital. We continue to execute our multi-point plan focused on efficiency and modernization. You've seen us take bold actions to improve performance and everything remains on the table to drive operational excellence and address inefficiencies.

我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情。我們的首要任務之一是卓越執行。我們整個業務的運作都得到了改善，而且我們還有很長一段路要走，可以取得更好的表現。控制可控因素延伸到資本配置，我們將在資本支出和營運資本方面保持紀律。我們繼續執行專注於效率和現代化的多點計劃。您已經看到我們採取了大膽的行動來提高績效，並且一切都在討論中，以推動卓越運營並解決效率低下的問題。

Our plan is working, and we are seeing tangible benefits of our efforts to end fiscal 2023. I remain very confident in our long-term strategy and optimistic about our future. Rest assured that we are leaving no stone unturned to drive long-term value for our shareholders.

我們的計劃正在發揮作用，我們看到了 2023 財年結束的努力所帶來的實實在在的好處。我對我們​​的長期策略仍然充滿信心，並對我們的未來感到樂觀。請放心，我們將不遺餘力地為股東帶來長期價值。

Let's dive into an overview of segment performance by starting with an update on market share. Our brands continue to outpace the broader food and beverage category in volume growth across the retail channel in Q4. Our volume grew while the overwhelming majority of food and beverage peers saw volume declines. Our core business lines, including the iconic retail brands, Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm and Ball Park, saw Q4 volume growth of 3.2% versus last year, far outpacing our competition. Those 4 brands also all hold favorite brand status with consumers over our nearest competitor by a wide margin.

讓我們從市場份額的最新情況開始，深入了解細分市場的表現。第四季度，我們的品牌在整個零售通路的銷售成長持續超過更廣泛的食品和飲料類別。我們的銷量有所成長，而絕大多數食品和飲料同行的銷量卻有所下降。我們的核心業務線，包括標誌性零售品牌 Tyson、Jimmy Dean、Hillshire Farm 和 Ball Park，第四季銷售量較去年增長 3.2%，遠超過我們的競爭對手。這 4 個品牌也都享有消費者最愛的品牌地位，遠遠超過我們最接近的競爭對手。

We continue to show market share leadership in most of the retail categories in which we compete, delivering both pound and dollar share gains across our core business lines. We are accelerating foodservice where our Focus 6 categories, including value-added chicken, breakfast sausage, dinner sausage, pepperoni pizza toppings, bacon and Philly steaks outpaced the broadline industry and volume growth in the quarter both versus last year and sequentially. We have a strong foodservice portfolio and are aligning with key customers as we build momentum for the future.

我們繼續在我們競爭的大多數零售類別中展現市場份額領先地位，在我們的核心業務領域實現英鎊和美元份額的成長。我們正在加速餐飲服務，其中我們的焦點6 類產品，包括增值雞肉、早餐香腸、晚餐香腸、意大利辣香腸披薩配料、培根和費城牛排，本季度與去年和環比相比，均超過了整個行業和銷量增長。我們擁有強大的餐飲服務產品組合，並與主要客戶保持一致，為未來創造動力。

Speaking of winning with customers, we're proud to have made the top 10 for the second year in a row in the most recent Kantar PoweRanking. In fact, Tyson finished in the top 10 in 7 of the 9 categories they measure as we continue to focus on meeting customer needs and planning the future together with them.

說到贏得客戶，我們很自豪能夠在最新的 Kantar PowerRanking 中連續第二年進入前十名。事實上，泰森在他們衡量的 9 個類別中的 7 個類別中名列前十，因為我們繼續專注於滿足客戶需求並與他們一起規劃未來。

Moving to our segments, beginning with Prepared Foods. As I mentioned, our brands performed well in Q4, in fact, over the last year. Nearly 3/4 of U.S. households purchased a Tyson core business line product which is an increase of 90 basis points. While this is impressive across our portfolio, it's worth noting that our product with the highest penetration rate is only in about 1/3 of households, leaving us room for continued growth. This performance in retail helped Prepared Foods have a solid year in fiscal '23, with strong growth in AOI.

轉向我們的細分市場，從預製食品開始。正如我所提到的，我們的品牌在第四季度表現良好，事實上，與去年相比。近3/4的美國家庭購買了泰森核心業務線產品，增加了90個基點。雖然我們的產品組合令人印象深刻，但值得注意的是，我們滲透率最高的產品僅在大約 1/3 的家庭中使用，這為我們留下了持續增長的空間。零售業的這種表現幫助預製食品在 23 財年取得了穩健的業績，AOI 強勁成長。

As you know, our branded foods business is a strategic growth pillar for the future. We believe it is imperative to support our brands with marketing and advertising. As consumers begin to face what could be a more difficult economic environment, we ramped up our MAP support for our brands in the second half of the year, and we'll continue to do so as we move into fiscal 2024.

如您所知，我們的品牌食品業務是未來的策略成長支柱。我們相信透過行銷和廣告來支持我們的品牌勢在必行。隨著消費者開始面臨可能更加困難的經濟環境，我們在下半年加大了對我們品牌的 MAP 支持，並且在進入 2024 財年時我們將繼續這樣做。

While the full year AOI for Chicken was a modest loss, our progress toward improved performance continued in Q4 with sequential improvement versus Q3. In fact, this is the second consecutive quarter with more than $100 million in sequential AOI increases. I'm proud of what our team has accomplished over the past 6 months. Not only did we hold on to the operational enhancements we made in Q3, we made incremental improvements in yield and in our live operations. This allowed us to take advantage of improving market conditions, including lower grain costs, leading to a positive margin to end the year. As we head into a new fiscal year, we expect a better outlook for input costs while seeing the benefits of some of the bold actions we took this year.

雖然雞肉的全年 AOI 略有下降，但我們在第四季度繼續改善性能，與第三季度相比連續改善。事實上，這是連續第二季 AOI 連續成長超過 1 億美元。我為我們的團隊在過去 6 個月所取得的成就感到自豪。我們不僅堅持了第三季的營運改進，而且在產量和即時營運方面也取得了漸進式的改進。這使我們能夠利用市場條件改善的機會，包括穀物成本下降，從而在年底實現正利潤。當我們進入新的財政年度時，我們預計投入成本的前景會更好，同時看到我們今年採取的一些大膽行動的好處。

Coming into fiscal '23, we expected Beef to be under pressure due to limited cattle supply. This trend held true as cattle costs appreciated at a faster rate than the wholesale price of boxed beef, eroding export opportunities due to a strong U.S. dollar and low price of competing exporters and ultimately creating a very tight spread scenario. We also expected to see signs of rebuild of the herd to surface as cattle prices moved higher. However, this did not materialize. Until significant heifer retention and subsequent herd rebuilding takes place, we expect challenging supply conditions to remain. In this context, while the timing remains uncertain, we will be prepared by focusing on operational discipline.

進入 23 財年，我們預計由於牛隻供應有限，牛肉將面臨壓力。這種趨勢確實存在，因為牛的成本升值速度快於盒裝牛肉的批發價格，由於美元堅挺和競爭出口商的低價而侵蝕了出口機會，最終造成了非常緊張的利差情況。我們也預計，隨著牛價走高，牛群重建的跡象將會浮現。然而，這並沒有實現。在小母牛大量保留和隨後的牛群重建發生之前，我們預計供應條件仍將面臨挑戰。在這種情況下，雖然時間仍不確定，但我們將專注於操作紀律，並做好準備。

Moving to Pork. As you know, in fiscal '23, the industry suffered from supply and demand imbalances, which negatively impacted spreads. While we are seeing some signs of improving spreads and lower grain costs, there is still an imbalance between supply and demand of pork. Our team is focused on running the business as efficiently as possible while continuing to review all the options. We saw significant sequential and year-over-year improvement in AOI in Q4 driven primarily by improving spreads and operational enhancements.

轉向豬肉。如您所知，在 23 財年，該行業遭受供需失衡，這對利差產生了負面影響。儘管我們看到價差改善和糧食成本下降的一些跡象，但豬肉供需之間仍然不平衡。我們的團隊專注於盡可能有效率地經營業務，同時繼續審查所有選項。我們看到第四季度 AOI 出現了顯著的環比和同比改善，這主要是由於價差改善和營運增強所致。

Before I turn the call over to John to review our financials and FY '24 guidance, I want to give you my priorities for the coming year. First is improving our financial strength with a focus on cash. I want to emphasize that we will be disciplined and prudent with capital while remaining committed to our dividend as the primary way of returning cash to shareholders.

在我將電話轉給約翰審查我們的財務狀況和 24 財年指導之前，我想向您介紹我來年的優先事項。首先是提高我們的財務實力，重點是現金。我想強調的是，我們將對資本保持紀律和審慎，同時繼續致力於將股息作為向股東返還現金的主要方式。

As you saw in our earnings press release this morning, we increased our dividend for the 12th consecutive year. We will continue to evaluate our production footprint and network to drive efficiencies. As you saw, we've made significant changes in Chicken by announcing the closure of 6 of our older, less efficient plants, which we expect to improve our capacity utilization and mix.

正如您在今天早上的收益新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們連續第 12 年增加了股息。我們將繼續評估我們的生產足跡和網路以提高效率。正如您所看到的，我們宣布關閉 6 座老舊、效率較低的工廠，對 Chicken 業務做出了重大改變，我們希望這些工廠能夠提高我們的產能利用率和產品組合。

In a similar move to leverage efficiencies and reduce network redundancies, we also recently made the difficult decision to take 2 of our smaller Fresh Meats case-ready value-added facilities off-line. Production from these locations will shift to larger, more efficient plants, and our harvest capacity, sales volume and importantly, our customers will see no impact. We are reviewing whether there are similar opportunities across our segments.

為了提高效率和減少網路冗餘，我們最近也做出了一個艱難的決定，將我們的 2 個小型鮮肉箱就緒增值設施下線。這些地點的生產將轉移到更大、更有效率的工廠，我們的收穫能力、銷量，更重要的是，我們的客戶不會受到任何影響。我們正在審查我們的細分市場是否有類似的機會。

In Chicken, we will remain focused on further enhancing our competitiveness going forward. Prepared Foods was the profit engine for the company last year. We want to sustain and build on that strength by supporting our brands and driving momentum in foodservice while being responsive to changes in the market conditions. Some of the key focus areas are making better use of our data, shifting more of our MAP support to digital media and being disciplined with revenue management.

在雞肉方面，我們將繼續專注於進一步增強我們的競爭力。預製食品是該公司去年的利潤引擎。我們希望透過支持我們的品牌並推動餐飲服務的發展勢頭，同時對市場條件的變化做出反應，來維持和鞏固這一優勢。一些關鍵重點領域是更好地利用我們的數據、將更多 MAP 支援轉移到數位媒體以及嚴格收入管理。

In Beef, multiple outcomes are possible during the current cattle cycle. We believe we have best-in-class assets and team members and are aligning with the right suppliers and customers, giving us confidence that we'll be prepared for all of them. In Pork, we believe we have a bright future ahead of us and are excited about the team we've built that continues to drive operational improvements and synergies with our Prepared Foods business.

對於牛肉，在當前的養牛週期中可能出現多種結果。我們相信我們擁有一流的資產和團隊成員，並且正在與合適的供應商和客戶合作，這讓我們有信心為所有這些做好準備。在豬肉方面，我們相信我們擁有光明的未來，並對我們建立的團隊感到興奮，該團隊將繼續推動營運改進並與我們的預製食品業務產生協同效應。

As we said before, we are taking a hard look at our cost structure to drive operational excellence. Our ongoing productivity initiatives are focused on things that can be deployed at scale enterprise-wide, including procurement, logistics and digitalization. These are a few of the initiatives that will make us a fundamentally stronger business as we go forward.

正如我們之前所說，我們正在認真審視我們的成本結構，以推動卓越營運。我們正在進行的生產力計劃專注於可以在企業範圍內大規模部署的事物，包括採購、物流和數位化。這些舉措將使我們在前進過程中從根本上變得更加強大。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

這樣，我就把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Donnie. Let me start with a quick summary of our total company results and then review our individual segments. Our sales were down year-over-year in Q4 and for fiscal '23 driven by Pork and Chicken, where we saw a reduction in price per pound. The decline in adjusted operating profit for both periods was driven by lower profitability in Beef and Chicken. While profit in Q4 was down substantially versus last year, it's important to note that it continued to improve on a sequential basis, and adjusted EPS more than doubled compared to Q3. Challenges remain, but we continue to drive efficiencies and improve our operations, and we believe we're headed in the right direction.

謝謝你，唐尼。讓我先快速總結一下我們公司的整體業績，然後回顧一下我們的各個部門。在豬肉和雞肉的推動下，我們的銷售額在第四季和 23 財年同比下降，每磅價格下降。兩個時期調整後營業利潤的下降是由於牛肉和雞肉獲利能力下降所致。儘管第四季的利潤較去年大幅下降，但值得注意的是，第四季的利潤環比持續改善，調整後的每股盈餘較第三季增加了一倍多。挑戰依然存在，但我們繼續提高效率並改善我們的運營，我們相信我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

Now on to the individual segment results, starting with Prepared Foods. In Prepared Foods, revenue was down modestly in Q4 year-over-year, driven by lower bacon pricing. This lower pricing was offset by volume growth, which highlights the strength of our brands. AOI improved slightly year-over-year despite lower sales. Our ongoing productivity initiatives and easing inflation offset lower pricing, increased marketing, advertising and promotional support and the onset of start-up costs for our new facilities.

現在來看各個細分市場的結果，從預製食品開始。在預製食品領域，由於培根價格下降，第四季營收較去年同期小幅下降。較低的定價被銷售成長所抵消，這凸顯了我們品牌的實力。儘管銷售額下降，但 AOI 仍比去年同期略有改善。我們持續的生產力措施和通膨緩解抵消了較低的定價、增加的行銷、廣告和促銷支援以及新設施的啟動成本。

AOI margin declined sequentially in Q4 due to seasonality, increased brand support and start-up costs. However, the $151 million of AOI this segment generated is the second highest Q4 result in the past 5 years and full year fiscal '23 AOI grew by more than $100 million, representing growth of nearly 14% year-over-year.

由於季節性、品牌支持和啟動成本增加，第四季度 AOI 利潤率連續下降。然而，該部門產生的 1.51 億美元 AOI 是過去 5 年來第二高的第四季業績，23 財年全年 AOI 成長超過 1 億美元，較去年同期成長近 14%。

Now moving to Chicken. Sales declined 10% year-over-year in the quarter, driven by lower pricing, reflecting primarily lower commodity protein prices. Volume grew modestly in Q4 versus last year, driven by continued sell-through of finished goods inventory, and this was partially offset by a decline in production. This decrease in production highlights our ongoing focus on balancing supply with our customers' demand.

現在轉向雞肉。由於價格下降，主要反映了商品蛋白價格下降，本季銷售額年減 10%。受成品庫存持續銷售推動，第四季度銷量較去年略有增長，但產量下降部分抵消了這一增長。產量的下降凸顯了我們對平衡供應與客戶需求的持續關注。

Year-over-year profitability declined, primarily due to lower commodity chicken pricing, but this was partially offset by lower input costs and operational efficiencies. On a sequential basis, lower grain cost and productivity enhancements drove another quarter of AOI improvement. In fact, when we compare to Q4 to Q2, Chicken AOI increased by more than $240 million.

獲利能力較去年同期下降，主要是由於商品雞肉價格下降，但這部分被投入成本和營運效率下降所抵消。從環比來看，穀物成本下降和生產力提高推動了 AOI 又一個季度的改善。事實上，與第四季度和第二季度相比，雞肉 AOI 增加了超過 2.4 億美元。

In Beef, revenue increased modestly year-over-year in Q4 with lower head throughput, offset by higher pricing. Operating profit was down, reflecting compressed spreads primarily due to higher cattle costs. As we have been discussing all year, Beef is likely to continue to face headwinds, including in fiscal '24 as we don't expect the ongoing tightening of cattle supply and spread compression to abate until herd rebuilding is underway.

在牛肉方面，第四季度收入同比小幅增長，但牛肉產量較低，但被較高的定價所抵消。營業利益下降，主要是因為養牛成本上升導致價差壓縮。正如我們全年討論的那樣，牛肉可能會繼續面臨阻力，包括在 24 財年，因為我們預計，在牛群重建開始之前，牛供應的持續收緊和擴散壓縮不會減弱。

Moving on to Pork. Revenue was down nearly 7%, driven primarily by lower pricing due to softer global demand. AOI for the quarter was a modest loss, but importantly, it increased by more than $40 million year-over-year and by more than $60 million sequentially as spreads improved along with operating performance.

繼續討論豬肉。營收下降近 7%，主要是由於全球需求疲軟導致定價下降。本季 AOI 出現小幅虧損，但重要的是，由於利差隨著經營業績的改善而改善，該季度的 AOI 年增超過 4,000 萬美元，環比增長超過 6,000 萬美元。

Before moving to our capital priorities, it's worth noting that our International business posted solid Q4 and fiscal '23 results driven by growing penetration across our key markets and channels. We remain focused on market share growth and continued operational excellence as we ramp up our new facilities.

在轉向我們的資本優先事項之前，值得注意的是，由於我們對主要市場和管道的滲透率不斷提高，我們的國際業務在第四季度和 23 財年取得了穩健的業績。隨著我們擴大新設施，我們仍然專注於市場份額的成長和持續卓越的營運。

Now to our financial position and capital priorities. We're building financial strength, investing in our business and returning cash to shareholders, primarily via our dividend, remain the priorities of our capital allocation strategy. As Donnie said earlier, we will remain disciplined and prudent with capital. We came into fiscal '23 with a plan to spend roughly $2.5 billion in CapEx. As you saw, we ended up reducing our spend by $600 million as we reacted to market conditions driving lower profitability and impacting our operating cash flow.

現在談談我們的財務狀況和資本優先事項。我們正在增強財務實力，投資我們的業務並主要透過股息向股東返還現金，仍然是我們資本配置策略的優先事項。正如唐尼之前所說，我們對資本將保持紀律和謹慎。我們進入 23 財年時計劃在資本支出上支出約 25 億美元。正如您所看到的，我們最終減少了 6 億美元的支出，因為我們對導致盈利能力下降並影響我們營運現金流的市場狀況做出了反應。

We were also disciplined managing working capital, which was a source of cash this year. We ended the year with $3 billion of liquidity and net leverage of just over 4x. Our balance sheet management approach remains unchanged as we are committed to building financial strength, maintaining our investment-grade credit rating and returning to net leverage of at or below 2x net debt to EBITDA.

我們也嚴格管理營運資金，這是今年的現金來源。年底，我們的流動性達到 30 億美元，淨槓桿率略高於 4 倍。我們的資產負債表管理方法保持不變，因為我們致力於增強財務實力，維持我們的投資等級信用評級，並將淨槓桿率恢復到等於或低於 EBITDA 淨債務 2 倍的水平。

During the year, we returned $670 million to shareholders via dividends and $354 million in share repurchases, primarily to offset dilution. We remain committed to maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy, ensuring that we deploy resources to maximize long-term shareholder value.

年內，我們透過股利向股東返還 6.7 億美元，並透過股票回購返還 3.54 億美元，主要是為了抵銷股權稀釋。我們仍然致力於維持嚴格的資本配置策略，確保我們部署資源以實現長期股東價值最大化。

Now let's review our outlook for fiscal 2024. Fiscal '23 was a challenging year, and we took a hard look at how we manage the business in times like these and how we can better communicate and manage expectations for investors. Our focus for fiscal '24 is to manage the business for profit and cash dollar generation. These are our internal goals and what we want investors to understand. So for this year, as you'll see, we are giving guidance in dollar terms instead of a margin percentage. While there are some top line uncertainties within the individual protein categories, we expect our overall sales to be approximately in line with fiscal '23.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們對 2024 財年的展望。23 財年是充滿挑戰的一年，我們認真研究瞭如何在這樣的時期管理業務，以及如何更好地溝通和管理投資者的期望。我們 24 財年的重點是管理業務以實現利潤和現金產生。這些都是我們的內部目標，也是我們希望投資人理解的。因此，正如您將看到的，今年我們以美元而非保證金百分比為單位提供指導。雖然各個蛋白質類別的營收存在一些不確定性，但我們預計我們的整體銷售額將與 23 財年大致持平。

Moving on to the segments. Prepared Foods has been a solid and stable driver of operating cash flow. We expect that to continue in fiscal '24 driven by volume growth, disciplined revenue management and productivity, offset by MAP support for our brands and the start-up costs for our new facilities as well as risks from changes in consumer behavior.

繼續進行細分。預製食品一直是經營現金流的堅實而穩定的驅動力。我們預計，在銷售成長、嚴格的收入管理和生產力的推動下，這種情況將在24 財年繼續下去，但會被MAP 對我們品牌的支持、新設施的啟動成本以及消費者行為變化帶來的風險所抵銷。

Reflecting these dynamics, our expectations for adjusted operating income is in the range of $800 million to $1 billion. To help navigate any potential shifts in consumer spending and sentiment, we are focused on the most efficient marketing, advertising and promotions that drive the highest ROI and the most effective consumer engagement and demand. To help meet demand in value-added brands and categories, we had previously invested in new capacity, and we expect to incur start-up costs in fiscal '24.

考慮到這些動態，我們對調整後營業收入的預期在 8 億美元至 10 億美元之間。為了幫助應對消費者支出和情緒的任何潛在變化，我們專注於最有效的行銷、廣告和促銷，以推動最高的投資報酬率和最有效的消費者參與和需求。為了幫助滿足增值品牌和類別的需求，我們先前投資了新產能，預計將在 24 財年產生啟動成本。

On to Chicken. Our operational turnaround in Chicken is progressing as we expected. We demonstrated sequential profit improvement in Q3 and again in Q4. We anticipate operational improvements to continue into next year, and that, along with lower input costs net of pass-through pricing, this segment should generate between $400 million and $700 million of adjusted operating income.

說到雞肉。我們在雞肉方面的營運週轉正在按我們的預期進行。我們在第三季和第四季再次展示了利潤的連續改善。我們預計營運改善將持續到明年，加上扣除轉嫁定價後的投入成本降低，該細分市場應產生 4 億至 7 億美元的調整後營運收入。

Now on to our Beef segment. When and how fast meaningful heifer retention will take hold is uncertain at this point, and this influences our outlook for our Beef segment in 2024. Multiple outcomes are possible, and we will be prepared for all of them to operate as efficiently as we can. Our guidance for this segment is a loss of $400 million to breakeven for the year, reflecting uncertainty in market dynamics.

現在進入我們的牛肉部分。目前還不確定何時以及以多快的速度保留有意義的小母牛，這會影響我們對2024 年牛肉業務的前景。多種結果都是可能的，我們將為所有這些結果盡可能高效地營運做好準備。我們對該細分市場的指導是今年損益兩平虧損 4 億美元，反映了市場動態的不確定性。

Now on to our Pork segment, where we see momentum in the business. As spreads begin to improve and we continue to execute, we expect AOI to improve versus last year to roughly breakeven for fiscal 2024.

現在談談我們的豬肉部門，我們看到了該業務的發展勢頭。隨著利差開始改善並且我們繼續執行，我們預計 AOI 將較去年有所改善，到 2024 財年大致實現損益平衡。

For the total company, we've given a range of outcomes for each segment, but we expect any outsized weakness or strength in any one area to be balanced by the remainder of the portfolio. In other words, neither the low end nor high end of the range is anticipated to happen simultaneously across all the businesses. As a result, we expect our total company AOI for fiscal '24 to be between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion.

對於整個公司來說，我們為每個細分市場給出了一系列結果，但我們預計任何一個領域的任何過大的弱點或優勢都將被投資組合的其餘部分所平衡。換句話說，預計該範圍的低端和高端都不會在所有業務中同時發生。因此，我們預計 24 財年公司 AOI 總額將在 10 億美元至 15 億美元之間。

To further help understand the shape of the year, let me provide some context on the quarterly phasing. While we foresee more typical seasonality in our business for next year, things like start-up costs in Prepared Foods and rising cattle costs will impact Q1 and Q2 and generally shift profitability to the back half of fiscal '24. In addition, we are monitoring potential impacts to the consumer of higher interest rates and inflation, which could create some volatility.

為了進一步幫助了解今年的情況，讓我提供一些有關季度階段的背景資訊。雖然我們預計明年的業務會出現更典型的季節性，但預製食品的啟動成本和牛成本上漲等因素將影響第一季和第二季度，並通常將獲利能力轉移到 24 財年的後半段。此外，我們正在監測利率上升和通貨膨脹對消費者的潛在影響，這可能會造成一些波動。

Now to round out the key P&L items. We anticipate interest expense to be roughly $400 million for the year, and our tax rate to be approximately 23%. We moderated our pace of CapEx in fiscal '23 in a challenging environment. We ended the year with $375 million of expenditures in Q4, which annualizes to $1.5 billion. As we maintain tight controls on our spending in line with profitability and cash flow, we expect CapEx for the year to be between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion. While there are a range of possible outcomes for AOI, we expect to manage our working capital and CapEx so that we're free cash flow positive for the year.

現在完善關鍵的損益項目。我們預計今年的利息支出約為 4 億美元，稅率約為 23%。在充滿挑戰的環境下，我們在 23 財年放緩了資本支出步伐。截至年底，我們第四季的支出為 3.75 億美元，年化支出為 15 億美元。由於我們根據獲利能力和現金流對支出保持嚴格控制，我們預計今年的資本支出將在 10 億美元至 15 億美元之間。雖然 AOI 可能出現一系列結果，但我們希望管理我們的營運資本和資本支出，以便我們今年的自由現金流為正。

In summary, while the current operating environment remains difficult, we are making improvements across our operations and remain optimistic on our long-term prospects. We have great teams, growing demand for our products and the right portfolio mix to win in the marketplace.

總而言之，雖然當前的經營環境仍然很困難，但我們正在改善我們的運營，並對我們的長期前景保持樂觀。我們擁有優秀的團隊、對我們產品不斷增長的需求以及在市場上獲勝的正確產品組合。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Sean for Q&A instructions.

現在我將把電話轉回 Sean 以獲取問答說明。

Thanks, John. We will now move on to your questions. Please recall that our cautions on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures apply both to our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

謝謝，約翰。我們現在將繼續回答您的問題。請記住，我們對前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則措施的警告適用於我們準備好的評論和以下問答。運營商，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

So I guess the first question, John, Donnie, I'd love to get a little bit more color as we think about the high and low end of the segment profit ranges in Chicken, Beef and Prepared Foods specifically, kind of how do we think about what gets to the high and low end of those ranges? What do we think are the key year-on-year kind of profit drivers, increases in Chicken and decreases in Beef, in particular, to help kind of narrow the range of kind of company-level outcomes?

所以我想第一個問題，約翰，唐尼，當我們考慮雞肉、牛肉和預製食品的細分市場利潤範圍的高端和低端時，我希望獲得更多的信息，我們如何做想想什麼可以到達這些範圍的高端和低端？我們認為主要的同比利潤驅動因素是什麼，特別是雞肉的增加和牛肉的減少，以幫助縮小公司層面的績效範圍？

Adam, this is Donnie. Thanks for the question this morning, and thank you for being with us. As we said earlier, 2023 was a very unusual year, one that I've not seen where all core protein categories were challenged at the same time. And at the same time, our brands continue to perform well, outperforming the broader food and beverage category. The demand for protein remains strong. We're controlling the controllables, and we're focused on efficiency, modernization and cost structure.

亞當，這是唐尼。感謝您今天早上提出的問題，也感謝您接受我們的訪問。正如我們之前所說，2023 年是非常不尋常的一年，我還沒有見過所有核心蛋白質類別同時受到挑戰的一年。同時，我們的品牌繼續表現良好，優於更廣泛的食品和飲料類別。對蛋白質的需求依然強勁。我們正在控制可控因素，我們專注於效率、現代化和成本結構。

Over this past year, we've taken bold actions to improve performance. We're managing the business for cash. We also have pulled down our capital spend. And if you go back to '22, we spent $2.6 billion. In '23, we pulled that down to $1.9 billion, and we're projecting between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in '24. We will continue to return cash to shareholders, predominantly through the dividend, and we shared that earlier today, we had the 12th consecutive year of increasing dividends. We're winning with customers and consumers. We do have advantaged brands in advantaged categories and are very proud to be in the top 10 for the second year in a row with Kantar PoweRanking.

在過去的一年裡，我們採取了大膽的行動來提高績效。我們以現金管理業務。我們也減少了資本支出。如果你回到 22 年，我們花了 26 億美元。 23 年，我們將這一數字降至 19 億美元，預計 24 年將在 10 億美元至 15 億美元之間。我們將繼續向股東返還現金，主要是透過股息，今天早些時候我們宣布，我們連續第 12 年增加股息。我們正在贏得客戶和消費者的青睞。我們確實在優勢類別中擁有優勢品牌，並且非常自豪能夠連續第二年躋身 Kantar PowerRanking 前十名。

We've seen sequential improvement across all the businesses in the second half of '23. We expect fiscal '24 to be better year-over-year in cash flow and profitability, Chicken AOI improving considerably and Prepared Foods continuing to perform well. In short, our plan is working and delivering tangible results. FY '24 is off to a great start, and I could not be more excited about our future. We do have a good plan, we do have the right team and we are executing at levels I've not seen in a long, long time. And In terms of individual segments, John, do you want to add something to that?

我們看到 23 年下半年所有業務都取得了連續改善。我們預計 24 財年的現金流和獲利能力將比去年同期更好，雞肉 AOI 顯著改善，預製食品繼續表現良好。簡而言之，我們的計劃正在發揮作用並取得實際成果。 24 財年有了一個好的開端，我對我們的未來感到無比興奮。我們確實有一個很好的計劃，我們確實有合適的團隊，而且我們的執行水平是我很長一段時間以來從未見過的。就各個部分而言，約翰，您想添加一些內容嗎？

Yes, Adam. I think your question was around what gets you to the high or bottom end of the range in a few different segments. What I can tell you is, in Chicken, there's a few different things that will influence the profitability in the year. One, I think our plan, we have an aggressive operational improvement plan. And so our range reflects some different timing on how we achieve that. We also expect timing benefit from the closures last year to roll through as we get into the -- around the midpoint of the year.

是的，亞當。我認為你的問題是圍繞著什麼讓你在幾個不同的細分市場中達到範圍的高端或低端。我可以告訴你的是，在雞肉方面，有一些不同的因素會影響今年的獲利能力。第一，我認為我們的計劃，我們有一個積極的營運改善計劃。因此，我們的範圍反映了我們如何實現這一目標的一些不同時機。我們也預計，當我們進入今年中點左右時，去年關閉的時間效益將會顯現出來。

And then, of course, there's just market movement that we can't necessarily predict. Although I think recent market data would show you there's more tailwinds than there are headwinds in our Chicken segment. On Beef, the width of that range really just reflects the range of outcomes in the spread in that business. Naturally, we would expect that range to tighten as we move through the year. But just to comment on some of the movements in those markets, even Q4 for us that we just finished was better than we anticipated a quarter ago. So just acknowledging that there's a lot of movement there.

當然，還有我們無法預測的市場走勢。儘管我認為最近的市場數據會向您表明，我們的雞肉細分市場的順風因素多於逆風因素。就牛肉而言，該範圍的寬度實際上僅反映了該行業價差結果的範圍。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們預計這個範圍會收窄。但僅評論這些市場的一些走勢，即使我們剛完成的第四季也比我們一個季度前的預期要好。所以只是承認那裡有很多運動。

And I think then on Prepared was the last one you asked about. That will be driven by execution, consumer demand strength, how we invest in our brands and how they perform. So I think that this range is, actually, by going to the AOI dollars, we've, hopefully, for you and all of our investors kind of tightened up the band of outcomes here, but there is still some natural unpredictability and just how close we can nail the number.

我認為準備是你問的最後一個。這將由執行力、消費者需求強度、我們對品牌的投資方式及其表現所驅動。所以我認為這個範圍實際上是透過 AOI 美元，我們希望為您和我們所有的投資者收緊這裡的結果範圍，但仍然存在一些自然的不可預測性以及如何關閉我們就可以確定這個數字了。

The AOI dollar guidance ranges are definitely appreciated versus the percent. And if I could, could you give a -- ask a follow-up just on cash flow. So you said free cash flow positive. Is that free cash flow positive after dividends? Or what's the -- I guess, the big plug in there would be what's -- how much working capital do you think you can release if given the sales and profit outlook that you have?

AOI 美元指導範圍相對於百分比肯定有所升值。如果可以的話，您能否提供有關現金流的後續資訊。所以你說自由現金流為正。股利後的自由現金流是否為正？或者，我想，如果考慮到您的銷售和利潤前景，您認為您可以釋放多少營運資金？

Yes. I think on working capital, the drivers will be pulling down some of the finished goods inventory, but we might give some of that back on inventory just in terms of the cattle prices and kind of what we've got on the balance sheet. As it relates to, yes, free cash flow positive, we are committed to supporting the dividend for the year. And so we've given a range of CapEx numbers that we would expect to kind of reflect wherever the AOI and EBITDA is so that we can be free cash flow positive for the year.

是的。我認為在營運資本方面，驅動因素將減少一些製成品庫存，但我們可能會根據牛的價格和資產負債表上的情況將其中一些庫存回饋給庫存。因為這與自由現金流為正相關，所以我們致力於支持今年的股利。因此，我們給出了一系列資本支出數字，我們希望這些數字能反映 AOI 和 EBITDA 的情況，以便我們今年能夠實現正向自由現金流。

I think to clarify one thing is that would be net of -- or that would not include any opportunistic M&A. I think we've always been pretty active in the market, evaluating opportunities. And so we don't have any predictions or news to share there. But just acknowledging that we'll consider things should they come to market during the year.

我認為需要澄清的一件事是，這將不包括任何機會主義併購。我認為我們在市場上一直非常活躍，評估機會。所以我們沒有任何預測或新聞可以分享。但只要承認我們會考慮它們在年內上市的情況。

Our next question comes from Andrew Strelzik from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Andrew Strelzik。

I'd like to actually start on the CapEx guidance, please. If you could maybe unpack where -- how you landed where you did, what the buckets are? I think you previously had talked about $1.7 billion, maybe getting as low as $1.5 billion over time. Obviously, this is lower than that. So what types of things are removed from the plan? How does that shift? And where do we go from here?

我想真正開始討論資本支出指南。如果你能在哪裡解壓縮——你是如何降落在你所在的地方的，桶子是什麼？我想您之前談到過 17 億美元，隨著時間的推移可能會低至 15 億美元。顯然，這個數字要低於那個數字。那麼哪些類型的事情會從計畫中刪除呢？這種情況如何轉變？我們接下來該去哪裡？

Yes. I guess I'll give you 3 or 4 data points on how to think about CapEx. Number one, we communicated throughout last year that we were trending toward a $1.5 billion number. Did not mean to make any commitments last year as to when we got there, although we feel as though that's the high watermark this year. And so I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, Q4 was $370 [spend] for us. And so that would track out to being at the high end of our range for the year.

是的。我想我會給您 3 或 4 個數據點來說明如何考慮資本支出。第一，去年我們一直在傳達我們的目標是 15 億美元的數字。去年我們並沒有打算對何時達到目標做出任何承諾，儘管我們覺得今年已經達到了最高水準。因此，我想我在準備好的發言中提到，第四季度我們的支出為 370 美元。因此，這將達到我們今年範圍的高端。

I think that the other 2 things that are worth pointing out is, number one, we have a lot of capacity expansion projects that we're rolling off and finishing up as we start '24. And then last but not least, if you just think about a normalized investment level in our business, if I were to go back to before we embarked on this period of significant capital investment, $1.25 billion was probably the -- was the average number between, I think, '17 and '21. So that's just some recent history that would support the range that we're sharing today is in line with what we need to invest in our business.

我認為另外兩件事值得指出，第一，我們有很多產能擴張項目，我們正在啟動並在 24 年開始時完成這些項目。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，如果你考慮一下我們業務的正常化投資水平，如果我回到我們開始這一時期的重大資本投資之前，12.5 億美元可能是 - 之間的平均數，我想，'17 和'21。因此，這只是一些最近的歷史記錄，可以支持我們今天分享的範圍符合我們業務投資所需的範圍。

And John, if I might add one thing to that, and you referenced some of the larger projects being behind us. I think it's important to remind everyone that in '22 we began to have an outsized capital expense. All of that was in service to making sure we had the capacity necessary to grow our branded portfolio, the value-added Chicken and Prepared Foods as well. And we've got those Danville, Virginia, we have also -- we have Bowling Green, Kentucky and Claryville coming online, plus a number of operations coming online outside the United States.

約翰，如果我可以補充一件事的話，你提到了我們背後的一些更大的項目。我認為有必要提醒大家，22 年我們開始出現巨額資本支出。所有這些都是為了確保我們有能力發展我們的品牌產品組合、增值雞肉和預製食品。我們已經讓維吉尼亞州的丹維爾、肯塔基州的鮑靈格林和克拉里維爾上線了，還有美國以外的一些業務也上線了。

Okay. Great. That's super helpful. And then the second question, I guess, is maybe if you think about your footprint today, your capacity utilization across your business, and then you've been very, very consistent in terms of saying that you're looking for all the opportunities that are out there and those types of things across the business. So you found some more in Chicken that you've talked about. But I guess I'm just curious, if you could characterize how you think about your footprint today and how you're evaluating those opportunities, if there's anything beyond Chicken that you think might make sense at some point or maybe not since we haven't seen that yet. But just curious as you continue to go down that path.

好的。偉大的。這非常有幫助。我想，第二個問題可能是，如果你考慮一下你今天的足跡，你整個企業的產能利用率，然後你一直非常非常一致地說，你正在尋找所有機會，整個行業都有這些類型的事情。所以你在《雞》中發現了更多你所討論過的內容。但我想我只是好奇，如果你能描述你如何看待你今天的足跡，以及你如何評估這些機會，除了雞肉之外，你是否認為在某些時候可能有意義或可能沒有任何東西，因為我們還沒看到。但當你繼續沿著這條路走下去時，只是好奇。

Sure. As we've said a number of times, and we'll continue to say this, we are evaluating everything, leaving no stone unturned. If you were to -- if you go back and look at what we've announced thus far, the 6 chicken plants and then the most recently, the 2 value-added case-ready plants in our Beef and Pork business, those are typical of what we're looking for. But these are typically older, less efficient, certainly not modern that require a lot of capital expenditure to try to either expand or make efficient.

當然。正如我們多次說過的那樣，我們將繼續這樣說，我們正在評估一切，不遺餘力。如果你回頭看看我們迄今為止宣布的 6 家雞肉工廠，以及最近我們的牛肉和豬肉業務中的 2 家增值工廠，這些都是典型的我們正在尋找什麼。但這些設施通常比較陳舊、效率較低，而且絕對不是現代化的，需要大量資本支出來嘗試擴張或提高效率。

And so we're choosing to move that capacity to another plant. We're not wanting to give up any volume or share, and we're doing that very well. But the other thing that may not be as quite as apparent is because of the efficiency play in all of our core plants, it has enabled us to run lines at rate, it's allowed us to get the labor and yield and throughput on those lines that we need. But that's also been an unlock in our ability to take away some redundant capacities.

因此，我們選擇將產能轉移到另一家工廠。我們不想放棄任何銷量或份額，而且我們在這方面做得很好。但另一件事可能不那麼明顯，因為我們所有核心工廠的效率發揮，它使我們能夠以一定的速度運行生產線，它使我們能夠在這些生產線上獲得勞動力、產量和吞吐量，我們需要。但這也解鎖了我們消除一些冗餘能力的能力。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I wanted to ask first, Tyson in the past has gone back and forth a little bit about providing longer-term margin ranges by segment. Now that you're providing EBIT dollars by segment, and I would mirror, I think, Adam's thoughts about appreciating that, is it possible that at some point in the future, you might consider going back to giving us some kind of longer-term EBIT ranges instead of margin ranges? Or is the goal kind of, hey, let's see, where the business goes and then maybe that will be considered? Or is that just kind off the table at all? I know there's some people that just are always curious what your longer-term outlook is at this point, even though visibility is not great right now.

我想先問，泰森過去曾反覆討論過按細分市場提供長期利潤範圍。既然你按部門提供息稅前利潤，我想，我會反映亞當對此的看法，是否有可能在未來的某個時候，你可能會考慮回去給我們某種長期的息稅前利潤範圍而不是利潤範圍？或者目標是，嘿，讓我們看看，業務發展到哪裡，然後也許會被考慮？或者這根本不是桌面上的事？我知道有些人總是好奇你目前的長期前景是什麼，儘管現在的能見度不是很好。

Ken, this is John, and we appreciate the question. I think, yes, today, we're not backing off of the long-term guidance that we've got out there, but we're really focused on '24. And so I think the time in the future when it's appropriate and reflective of our kind of high confidence on where things are, we will give revisions if we deem that to be appropriate or reflective of our outlook. But today, we're really just talking about '24 and Q4 '23.

肯，我是約翰，我們很高興你提出這個問題。我認為，是的，今天我們並沒有放棄我們已經制定的長期指導方針，但我們真正關注的是「24」。因此，我認為，在未來適當的時候，如果我們認為適當或反映了我們的前景，我們就​​會做出修改。但今天，我們實際上只是在談論「24 年」和「23 年第四季」。

And then just as a quick follow-up, it was mentioned that you're still, if I can paraphrase, maybe you're kind of reviewing all of your options for your Pork business. I was just curious if there's any further insights you might be able to provide about what those options are and kind of where you are in that progress.

然後，作為快速跟進，有人提到，如果我可以解釋一下，也許您仍在審查豬肉業務的所有選擇。我只是好奇您是否能夠提供有關這些選項的更多見解以及您目前的進展。

Yes. Thanks. I'll throw out a couple of things, and then I'll let Brady step on top of that. If you look back in '23 and supply-demand imbalance, there's a little of that occurring in Pork as we move into '24. We talk a lot about controlling the controllables. But here's what I would tell you about that. The team that we've got in place today in our Pork business is a world-class team delivering best-in-class results. I couldn't be prouder of the work that they've done.

是的。謝謝。我會扔掉一些東西，然後讓布雷迪取代它。如果你回顧 23 年的供需不平衡，當我們進入 24 年時，豬肉領域就會出現一些這種情況。我們談了很多關於控制可控因素的內容。但這就是我要告訴你的。我們今天在豬肉業務中組建的團隊是一支世界一流的團隊，能夠提供一流的業績。我對他們所做的工作感到非常自豪。

But they're also working across the lines with -- as it relates to Prepared Foods and trying to unlock new opportunities. We obviously have more Prepared Foods capacity coming online, some of the Tyson Pork raw material will be in support of that. But we're looking at each footprint in terms of capital requirements, how efficient, what it would take to make it modern and to upscale it. But then we're looking at network and how to do that. But with that, Brady, anything you would add to that?

但他們也在跨界合作——因為這與預製食品有關，並試圖釋放新的機會。顯然，我們有更多的預製食品產能上線，一些泰森豬肉原料將支持這一點。但我們正在根據資本需求、效率以及如何使其現代化和升級來審視每個足跡。但接下來我們正在研究網路以及如何做到這一點。但布雷迪，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Thanks, Donnie. As Donnie indicated, we've seen improvement. And John, certainly in his opening remarks, talked about the improvement sequentially quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in our Pork business. Again, that's driven by 2 things. One is we did see some moderate improvements relative to the spread, and we did see a significant improvement relative to us controlling our controllables. And again, that is a focus on making sure assets operate as efficiently as possible, really focused on our mix and ensuring that we have world-class yields coming out of our assets as well.

謝謝，唐尼。正如唐尼所說，我們已經看到了進步。約翰在他的開場白中談到了我們豬肉業務環比和同比的改善。同樣，這是由兩件事驅動的。一是我們確實看到了相對於價差的一些適度改善，並且我們確實看到了相對於我們控制可控因素的顯著改善。再說一遍，重點是確保資產盡可能高效地運營，真正專注於我們的組合，並確保我們的資產也能產生世界一流的收益率。

So when we talk about '24, again, we're looking at better than $100 million of improvement year-over-year relative to '23. We're excited about the team that we have. They've continued to really use data and analytics and ID all of the opportunities in the business. They've developed the right strategies for the future. And most importantly, they've executed on continuous improvement in mix, efficiency and yields.

因此，當我們再次談論「24」時，我們看到相對於「23」的同比改進超過 1 億美元。我們對我們擁有的團隊感到興奮。他們繼續真正使用數據和分析，並識別業務中的所有機會。他們已經為未來制定了正確的策略。最重要的是，他們在組合、效率和產量方面不斷改進。

Our next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的彼得·加爾博。

I wanted to unpack a little bit on Prepared Foods and the guidance for the year. Donnie, just given your commentary and some of your competitors, it seems like there is a step-up in the MAP spending and some of the promotion and maybe the category -- some of the retail categories are getting more competitive. I just -- I was hoping maybe you could unpack that in the current environment and then kind of reconcile. Again, the guidance for the year, typically, you would see a stronger profit contribution from Prepared in the first half versus the second half of the year, and maybe this year, it seems like it might be a bit different. So anything you can do more, to get more detail there.

我想稍微了解一下預製食品和今年的指導。 Donnie，根據您的評論和一些競爭對手，MAP 支出和一些促銷活動以及可能的類別似乎有所增加 - 一些零售類別的競爭變得更加激烈。我只是——我希望你能在當前環境下解開這個問題，然後進行協調。同樣，在今年的指導中，通常情況下，您會看到上半年與下半年相比，Prepared 的利潤貢獻更大，也許今年，情況可能會有所不同。所以你可以做更多的事情，以獲得更多細節。

Thank you. Let me say -- make a couple of comments, and I'll turn it over to Melanie. Let me start off by welcoming Melanie Boulden, who is our Chief Growth Officer, and she has taken over responsibility for our Prepared Foods and she's on her first call today representing Prepared Foods. And Melanie, welcome. And let me just lay a little foundation, and I'll let Melanie close the deal.

謝謝。讓我說——提出幾點意見，然後我會把它交給梅蘭妮。首先，我要歡迎梅蘭妮·博爾登 (Melanie Boulden)，她是我們的首席增長官，她已經接管了我們的預製食品部門的職責，今天她代表預製食品部門接聽了第一個電話。梅蘭妮，歡迎。讓我打下一點基礎，然後我會讓梅蘭妮完成交易。

Prepared Foods is a key growth pillar for our future. Our brands continue to perform well even last year, even in fiscal '23, when we were challenged. We have advantaged brands in advantaged categories. So we like that. But I'll let Melanie talk to you about some of the upside to even Prepared Foods today.

預製食品是我們未來的關鍵成長支柱。即使在去年，甚至在我們面臨挑戰的 23 財年，我們的品牌仍然表現出色。我們在優勢品類擁有優勢品牌。所以我們喜歡這樣。但今天我會讓梅蘭妮和你談談預製食品的一些好處。

Peter, so let's first -- you asked about performance and wanting to kind of unpack that, if you will. Let's start with our performance in Q4. It's important to remember that the Prepared Foods business, it has some seasonality aspects that typically resulted in softer margins in Q4 compared with our full year expectations. But despite the seasonality and impact from our start-up costs this past quarter, our margins still remain -- our margins still increased year-over-year in line with our full year expectations. And as John pointed out, this past quarter, we generated -- it's been our second highest Q4 result in the past 5 years.

彼得，首先，您詢問了效能問題，如果您願意的話，想對它進行一些分析。讓我們從第四季的表現開始。重要的是要記住，預製食品業務具有一些季節性因素，通常會導致第四季度的利潤率低於我們全年的預期。但儘管上個季度受到季節性因素和啟動成本的影響，我們的利潤率仍然保持不變——我們的利潤率仍然同比增長，符合我們的全年預期。正如約翰指出的那樣，上個季度，我們取得了過去 5 年來第二高的第四季業績。

And so then as I think about the full year, and our outlook for 2024, I have full confidence in the growth proposition of our Prepared Foods business. As we think about fiscal year 2024, we are driving profits behind disciplined revenue growth management and price pack architecture capabilities as well as we have strong operational improvement initiatives planned. And yes, to your point about that, we are investing for the future behind our business with increased MAP, but we're also investing behind new highly automated industry-leading production facilities to increase our capabilities in service to meet our growing demand. But I do want to say, though, as I think about 2024, it's also important to note, just like we had in Q4, we still have some start-up costs in Q1 for our new facilities, and that's probably going to impact our profit.

因此，當我思考全年以及 2024 年的前景時，我對我們的預製食品業務的成長主張充滿信心。在我們考慮 2024 財年時，我們正在透過嚴格的營收成長管理和價格包架構能力來推動利潤，並且我們規劃了強有力的營運改善措施。是的，就您的觀點而言，我們正在透過增加MAP 來投資業務的未來，但我們也在投資新的高度自動化的行業領先生產設施，以提高我們的服務能力，以滿足我們不斷增長的需求。但我確實想說，當我想到 2024 年時，同樣重要的是要注意，就像我們在第四季度一樣，我們在第一季仍然有一些新設施的啟動成本，這可能會影響我們的利潤。

And Peter, if I can add one thing. Just to answer your question, we did not mean to indicate that the seasonality in Prepared would be meaningfully different than from prior years.

彼得，我可以補充一件事嗎？只是為了回答您的問題，我們並不是要表明「Prepared」中的季節性將與往年有很大不同。

Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. And then Donnie, maybe just to -- and I know we have Brady on the call as well, but a 2-parter on Beef. I mean it seems like you missed the window or the industry missed the window on kind of heifer retention for last year. Is that pushing out now another 6 to 12 months prior on beef cycle recovery versus kind of what you thought previously?

知道了。好的。不，這很有幫助。然後唐尼，也許只是為了——我知道我們也有布雷迪參加電話會議，但他是《牛肉》的兩人合作夥伴。我的意思是，你似乎錯過了去年的窗口期，或者業界錯過了小母牛保留的窗口期。與您之前的想法相比，現在牛肉週期恢復是否要提前 6 至 12 個月？

And then -- the second piece would be, obviously, you're consolidating some of the case-ready operations that you announced last week. Historically, that was supposed to be a pretty big value driver in margining up the Beef business over time. And just I want to make sure that, that's still kind of core to the strategy. And again, removing those plants or shuttering those plants doesn't kind of knock that off the rail.

然後，第二部分顯然是，您正在整合上周宣布的一些案件準備。從歷史上看，隨著時間的推移，這應該是提高牛肉業務利潤的一個相當大的價值驅動因素。我只是想確保，這仍然是該策略​​的核心。再說一次，移除這些工廠或關閉這些工廠並不能改變這種情況。

Well, thanks for the follow-up there, Peter, this is Brady. And first, touching on the question relative to heifer retention. And I think a lot of industry analysts have continued to go back to where we saw diminished supplies almost a decade ago relative to the beef cycle. And certainly, the cattle on feed number relative to heifer as a percentage is extremely high. And we'll continue to monitor that. USDA indicated it was the largest on record for October.

好吧，謝謝你的跟進，彼得，我是布雷迪。首先，談談與小母牛保留相關的問題。我認為許多產業分析師繼續回到近十年前相對於牛肉週期供應減少的情況。當然，餵食牛的數量相對於小母牛的百分比是非常高的。我們將繼續關注這一情況。美國農業部表示，這是 10 月有史以來最大的一次。

And so I think what we are looking at relative to the shape of the future certainly is maybe more of a U-shaped curve on the bottom end relative to supply as opposed to the V-shape we saw back almost a decade ago as well. So we will continue to monitor heifer retention and cows relative to production capabilities and supply and really prepare for the variety of outcomes to go. We've got a solution for really those variety of potential outcomes.

因此，我認為我們所看到的未來​​形狀肯定可能更多是相對於供應而言的底部 U 形曲線，而不是我們在近十年前看到的 V 形曲線。因此，我們將繼續監測小母牛保留率和乳牛相對於生產能力和供應的情況，並為即將發生的各種結果做好準備。我們已經為各種潛在結果提供了解決方案。

Relative to our case-ready assets, I think there's a few key focus areas here. Number one is we did not lose any true capacity relative to our customers. All of our customers that we currently service today will be serviced in the future. We had redundant capacity. And so this just really allows us to continue to service our current customers, and we still have opportunity to grow into the future, but we're able to do that in a much more effective cost structure as well. So still a focus for Tyson is to get as close to our customers as we can relative to our value-added proposition.

相對於我們的案例資產，我認為這裡有幾個關鍵的重點領域。第一是我們沒有失去任何相對於客戶的真實能力。我們今天服務的所有客戶將來都將得到服務。我們有多餘的產能。因此，這確實使我們能夠繼續為當前的客戶提供服務，並且我們仍然有機會向未來發展，但我們也能夠以更有效的成本結構來做到這一點。因此，泰森食品的重點仍然是在增值主張方面盡可能貼近客戶。

So if I could add a couple of things to that as well. I think it's important that when you're evaluating Beef that you evaluate it across the entire cycle, which is approximately 10 years. And I will tell you and this thing moves kind of quickly. But a year ago, I was testifying before Congress with some of my peers because Beef was making so much money. And today, we're talking about what it looks like on the downside. So my message there, and I have to tell myself this as well, is that you have to look at it across the cycle, and we do that.

所以如果我也可以添加一些東西的話。我認為重要的是，當您評估牛肉時，請在整個週期（大約 10 年）中對其進行評估。我會告訴你，這件事進展得很快。但一年前，我和一些同行在國會作證，因為牛肉賺了很多錢。今天，我們討論的是它的缺點。所以我要傳達的訊息是，我也必須告訴自己，你必須在整個週期中審視它，我們就是這麼做的。

But a couple of other things that, again, I would just reiterate. Don't miss the fact that we have redundant capacity and are able to shutter that, that -- don't miss the fact that we got better at what we do and every aspect of the operational component. And so we did. But we continue to evaluate all options, but something that Brady would never say, but I'll say because he won't, that we have best-in-class assets, we have best-in-class team members, we have -- we are aligned with the right suppliers and we have great -- we have all the great customers that you would want to service. So we have a number of things that are lined up against -- or lined up the right way for us.

但我想再次重申其他一些事情。不要錯過這樣一個事實，即我們擁有多餘的產能，並且能夠關閉它——不要錯過這樣一個事實：我們在我們所做的事情以及運營組件的各個方面都做得更好。我們也這麼做了。但我們會繼續評估所有的選擇，但布雷迪永遠不會說，但我會說，因為他不會，我們擁有一流的資產，我們有一流的團隊成員，我們有 - - 我們與合適的供應商結盟，我們擁有優秀的供應商- 我們擁有您想要服務的所有優秀客戶。因此，我們有很多事情是反對的——或者說是對我們來說正確的。

Our next question comes from Ben Bienvenu from Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Ben Bienvenu。

John, I'm going to follow-up on a comment that you made around the Chicken guidance for next year. You noted the operational improvements you expect to make and I think the variability from the bottom end of the range for next year to the top end is subject to the pace of that progress. But you also made a comment about the market conditions that we can all see improving. Is improved market conditions a variable that you're considering in guidance for next year for FY '24 in Chicken?

約翰，我將跟進您圍繞明年的雞肉指南發表的評論。您提到了您期望進行的營運改進，我認為從明年範圍的底部到頂部的變化取決於進展的速度。但您也對市場狀況發表了評論，我們都可以看到市場狀況正在改善。您在明年 24 財年雞肉指導中考慮的變數是市場狀況的改善嗎？

Yes, Ben. The answer to that question is, we do factor in some range of market conditions. Although I would say in the band of our year-over-year improvement, it's probably about 2/3 of that is what we're seeing from operations and 1/3 of that year-over-year improvement has to do with some favorable grain prices and chicken market prices is how we think about that. And then I described earlier, obviously, how we get to the different outcome within the range. Wes is here with me, and maybe I can invite you to just color a little bit more on the year, Wes.

是的，本。這個問題的答案是，我們確實考慮了某些市場條件。雖然我想說的是我們的同比改善，但其中大約 2/3 可能是我們從運營中看到的，而同比改善的 1/3 與一些有利的因素有關我們是如何看待穀物價格和雞肉市場價格的。然後我之前顯然描述了我們如何在該範圍內獲得不同的結果。韋斯和我在一起，也許我可以邀請你為這一年多上一些顏色，韋斯。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ben. As John said, I'd classify it 1/3 of our improvements will be baked around markets, so grains, net of meat values, 2/3 driven by our fundamental improvements. And I can give you some examples. Nice improvement in Q4 in our live production led by livability, feed conversion and hatch. Our capacity and our yields were both up, turnover and absenteeism were down. Our service is up materially year-over-year, and we did it with $84 million less finished inventory pounds. And so trending in the right direction.

是的。謝謝你的提問，本。正如約翰所說，我認為我們的改進的 1/3 將圍繞市場進行，因此，扣除肉類價值後的穀物，2/3 是由我們的基本改進推動的。我可以給你一些例子。第四季度，我們的活體生產在宜居性、飼料轉換率和孵化率方面取得了顯著改善。我們的產能和產量均上升，人員流動率和缺勤率則有所下降。我們的服務同比大幅增長，並且成品庫存減少了 8400 萬美元。因此趨勢朝著正確的方向發展。

We also have a very disciplined supply-demand balance process in place. And so balance and supply demand and capacity to maximize profits while servicing customers. And so we're on track, improving our fundamentals, servicing customers and shifting our mix to drive profitability. But I agree with John, 1/3 markets, 2/3 performance.

我們也制定了非常嚴格的供需平衡流程。因此，平衡和供應需求和能力，以在服務客戶的同時實現利潤最大化。因此，我們正走上正軌，改善我們的基本面，為客戶提供服務，並改變我們的產品組合，以提高獲利能力。但我同意約翰的觀點，1/3 是市場，2/3 是績效。

Very, very helpful. My second question is a follow-up question on the balance sheet for next year as it relates to the $400 million of net interest expense in 2024. John, does that include the refinancing of the $1.25 billion of debt you have maturing in August? And/or is there something else that you guys might consider either downsizing that debt or something else to manage the balance sheet as you think about maturities in 2024?

非常非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於明年資產負債表的後續問題，因為它涉及 2024 年 4 億美元的淨利息支出。約翰，這是否包括您 8 月到期的 12.5 億美元債務的再融資？和/或在考慮 2024 年到期時，你們可能會考慮減少債務規模或其他管理資產負債表的措施嗎？

Yes. So we'd be projecting to refinance any upcoming maturities. I think we also have a term loan that we executed earlier this year to draw in November. And so just the rebalancing of the portfolio and the combination of the fixed and floating is where you see the rate -- or the total interest expense tick up year-over-year.

是的。因此，我們預計將為任何即將到期的債券提供再融資。我想我們還有今年早些時候執行的定期貸款，將於 11 月提取。因此，只要投資組合的重新平衡以及固定利率和浮動利率的組合，你就會看到利率或總利息支出逐年上升。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

This is Rahi on for Ben. Just a question for Chicken. In terms of your factory closures, I know there's 2 already closed or in process, can you confirm that? And also, what would you say is your current capacity utilization as of now? And then maybe any stats on reduced costs? Also, I just wanted to confirm for the $333 million write-down in fees, this relates to the 2 Fresh Meats case-ready value-added facilities you said you took offline?

這是本的拉希。只是問雞一個問題。至於你們工廠關閉的情況，我知道有兩家工廠已經關閉或正在關閉，你能證實嗎？另外，您認為目前的產能利用率是多少？然後也許有關於降低成本的統計數據？另外，我只是想確認一下3.33億美元的費用減記，這與您所說的下線的2個Fresh Meats現成增值設施有關？

So let me start off, and I'll answer the Beef question first. The write-down in Beef doesn't have anything to do with that. That was discount rates which drove the goodwill impairment. But in terms of Chicken -- let me just state this because we've not said this in some time. Our goal in Chicken is to simply be the very best in this space. That hasn't changed. I can tell you that over the last 3, 4, 5 years, maybe we haven't done that to the best of our ability. We haven't competed very well. But we're getting more competitive, and we are still unlocking opportunities. And I'll let Wes share some of the things that he's doing in addition to what he's already said.

那麼讓我開始吧，我將首先回答牛肉問題。牛肉的減記與此無關。這是導致商譽減損的折現率。但就雞肉而言——讓我簡單說明一下，因為我們已經有一段時間沒有說過這件事了。我們在 Chicken 領域的目標就是成為這個領域的佼佼者。這一點沒有改變。我可以告訴你，在過去的三、四年、五年裡，也許我們還沒有盡我們所能做到這一點。我們競爭得不太好。但我們的競爭越來越激烈，我們仍在釋放機會。除了他已經說過的內容之外，我還將讓韋斯分享他正在做的一些事情。

Yes. Let me see if I can answer your question. And so at this point, 5 of the 6 that we announced are in fact, are done producing, with the last 1 coming offline at the 1st of March. In our Q4 financials, only 2 of those would have been driving those numbers, with the remaining ones coming in Q1 and early Q2.

是的。讓我看看是否可以回答你的問題。目前，我們宣布的 6 款產品中，有 5 款已經完成生產，最後 1 款將於 3 月 1 日下線。在我們第四季的財務數據中，只有其中兩個會推動這些數字，其餘的將在第一季和第二季初出現。

As for the capacity -- yes, let me go ahead and I'll touch on the capacity. Our goal is to always have room to grow with our important customers, but we have moved up materially year-over-year with both the closures and other activities. But I would remind you that mix is as important as volume in driving our profitability across our total portfolio.

至於容量——是的，讓我繼續，我將談到容量。我們的目標是始終擁有與重要客戶一起成長的空間，但隨著關閉和其他活動的開展，我們的業績逐年大幅提升。但我想提醒您，在推動我們整個投資組合的獲利能力方面，組合與數量一樣重要。

And our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

I just wanted to come back to -- you said your first priority was being disciplined with cash, but you also pointed out that you've raised the dividend. It's a modest increase, I realize that. But I guess why the rush to take it up at all? Is it just that time of year? Is there a reason -- with especially an outlook with a bit of uncertainty that you couldn't just put that on hold. Just help me understand that thinking. And am I hearing correctly that it sounds like the flex comes from adjusting CapEx down? Is that the right trade-off? How should we think about that?

我只是想回到——你說你的首要任務是遵守現金紀律，但你也指出你已經提高了股息。我意識到，這是一個適度的成長。但我想為什麼要急於接受它呢？是一年中的這個時候嗎？有沒有什麼理由──尤其是在前景充滿不確定性的情況下，你不能就這麼擱置呢？請幫助我理解這種想法。我是否正確地聽到，聽起來彈性來自於調整資本支出？這是正確的權衡嗎？我們該如何思考這個問題？

This is John. I'll take that question. So as I mentioned earlier, we remain committed to growing the dividend, preserving the dividend this year and growing it over time. I understand the question. I think our judgment was that, on an absolute basis, about a 2% increase in terms of cents per share was modest and fit well within the range of outcomes for our capital allocation in '24. So I think that's how we answer that question.

這是約翰。我來回答這個問題。因此，正如我之前提到的，我們仍然致力於增加股息，保留今年的股息並隨著時間的推移而增加。我明白這個問題。我認為我們的判斷是，從絕對角度來看，每股美分成長約 2% 是適度的，並且完全符合我們 24 年資本配置的結果範圍。所以我認為這就是我們回答這個問題的方式。

If I could add something to that in terms of CapEx. As a reminder, over the last couple of years, we've made major investments in capacity, and we're pulling that back down to normal levels. We are in a good spot today in terms of the capacity to produce and to be able to produce and grow in the near term here. We'll certainly keep our eye on that. But I think another way to think about that is you're just returning to more of a historical level of capital spend.

如果我可以在資本支出方面添加一些內容。提醒一下，在過去的幾年裡，我們對產能進行了重大投資，我們正在將其拉回正常水平。今天，我們在生產能力以及短期內生產和成長方面處於有利位置。我們一定會密切關注這一點。但我認為另一種思考方式是，資本支出更多地回到了歷史水準。

Okay. That's helpful. And I just want to follow up on the Prepared Foods commentary. This has been touched on a little bit, but you called out the difficult consumer environment and how you're trying to meet those consumers where they are. I guess, just at a higher level, can you give a sense of how you prioritize the sort of volume over price? What's the key driver in terms of how you think about approaching what could be a further step-up in promotions? Or just how you manage that going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。我只想跟進預製食品的評論。這已經被觸及了一點，但你指出了困難的消費者環境以及你如何努力滿足這些消費者的需求。我想，在更高的層面上，你能說明一下你如何優先考慮數量而不是價格嗎？您考慮如何進一步加強促銷活動的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？或是你如何管理未來的發展？

Yes. So Michael, let me first talk about our pricing strategy in totality. So we have a strong revenue management capability as well as our leading brands, which is the foundation of our pricing strategy. And when we do implement price increases, we're focused on our profitability and the health of our brands, while at the same time simultaneously being cognizant of the category, our competition and our consumer demand dynamics. And through these capabilities as well as our analytics, we can see that our elasticities are moving back to pre-COVID ranges and level. And at the end of the day, as you know, our goal is just to balance pricing and volume in a volatile commodity market.

是的。邁克爾，讓我先談談我們的整體定價策略。所以我們有很強的收益管理能力以及我們的領導品牌，這是我們定價策略的基礎。當我們確實實施漲價時，我們會關注我們的獲利能力和品牌的健康狀況，同時了解該類別、我們的競爭和消費者需求動態。透過這些功能以及我們的分析，我們可以看到我們的彈性正在回到新冠疫情之前的範圍和水平。歸根結底，如您所知，我們的目標只是在波動的商品市場中平衡定價和數量。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Alexia Howard from Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Alexia Howard。

Okay. So can I just start with Beef. I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that it was going to be a year of 2 halves with more pressure on profitability in the first half. Obviously, this latest quarter came through a bit better than expected, but -- and I know you don't give quarterly guidance, but are we trending at the moment towards the sort of lower end of the range, and the expectation is that things will pull around. And why would they pull around in the second half? Just curious about the magnitude of how it skews first half and second half.

好的。那我可以從牛肉開始嗎？我想你在準備好的發言中提到，今年將是下半年的一年，上半年獲利壓力更大。顯然，最近一個季度的表現比預期要好一些，但是——我知道你們沒有給出季度指導，但我們目前的趨勢是否朝著範圍的下限方向發展，預計情況是這樣的會拉扯。為什麼他們會在下半場逆轉？只是好奇上半場和下半場的偏差有多大。

Sure, Alexia. Well, thanks for the question. And as we indicated, there is certainly a large range of outcomes, and there's a number of different supply and demand dynamics that will come into play as we move throughout the year. When we lay out our forecast and our approach, we certainly look at a variety of different inputs, including seasonality, where we see different demand behaviors from the consumer, along with what we see from a supply perspective and have balanced what we believe to be appropriate amount of heifer retention given the environment into those forecasts.

當然，亞歷克西婭。嗯，謝謝你的提問。正如我們所指出的，肯定會產生各種各樣的結果，並且隨著我們全年的發展，許多不同的供需動態將發揮作用。當我們制定預測和方法時，我們當然會考慮各種不同的輸入，包括季節性，我們看到消費者的不同需求行為，以及我們從供應角度看到的情況，並平衡我們認為的情況考慮到這些預測中的環境，適當數量的小母牛保留量。

And so really, that provides us that range of outcome that we look at for '24. We've done a really good job from a business perspective of continual improvement, which we believe relative to the industry available spreads that we see, lent itself to the performance in Q4, and we expect to see those trends relative to our true controllables move into '24, and that has provided us with the range of guidance that we provided.

事實上，這為我們提供了 24 年所期待的一系列結果。從持續改進的業務角度來看，我們做得非常好，我們相信，相對於我們看到的行業可用利差，這有助於第四季度的表現，我們預計會看到這些相對於我們真正的可控因素的趨勢進入 24 年，這為我們提供了一系列指導。

Okay. And then on leverage, it's kind of linked to the Beef question, I mean, if there is going to be the sort of cadence through the year, do you anticipate that leverage is going to increase? And if so, by how much? Or how do you expect that to trend from here?

好的。然後在槓桿方面，這與牛肉問題有關，我的意思是，如果全年都會出現這種節奏，您預計槓桿會增加嗎？如果是的話，幅度是多少？或者您預計此後的趨勢如何？

Alexia, this is John. So we do would project for leverage to tick up a little bit as we move through the first part of the year. And really what's driving that is just lapping the quarters that we'll see from the first half of last year. And so once we move past and through that, we would begin to expect our leverage numbers to start to move back down.

亞歷克西婭，這是約翰。因此，我們確實預計，隨著今年上半年的到來，槓桿率會略有上升。真正推動這一趨勢的是去年上半年我們將看到的季度業績。因此，一旦我們克服了這一點，我們就會開始預期我們的槓桿率數據將開始回落。

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time I'm showing no additional questions. We'll end today's question-and-answer session. And I'd like to turn the floor back over to Donnie King for any closing remarks.

女士們先生們，目前我沒有提出其他問題。我們今天的問答環節就結束了。我想請唐尼金 (Donnie King) 發表結束語。

Thank you. While fiscal 2023 was a difficult year for our business, we finished strong and are more focused, collaborative and efficient than we were 12 months ago. While we're not yet where we want to be, our plan and the decisions we have made are moving us in the right direction, as demonstrated by a second quarter in a row of sequential improvements. In an uncertain macro environment, our priority continues to be controlling the controllables with discipline and agility. Our strategy is working. We have the right leadership team in place to deliver, and the bold actions we've taken are poised to drive long-term opportunity and shareholder value. Thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝。雖然 2023 財年對我們的業務來說是艱難的一年，但我們的業績表現強勁，並且比 12 個月前更加專注、協作和高效。雖然我們還沒有達到我們想要的目標，但我們的計劃和所做的決定正在使我們朝著正確的方向前進，第二季度的一系列連續改進就證明了這一點。在不確定的宏觀環境中，我們的首要任務仍然是紀律和敏捷地控制可控因素。我們的策略正在發揮作用。我們擁有合適的領導團隊來實現這一目標，我們採取的大膽行動將推動長期機會和股東價值。謝謝你，有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。