泰森食品 (TSN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Tyson Foods First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎來到泰森食品 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Cornett, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Sean Cornett。請繼續，先生。

Good morning and welcome to Tyson Foods' Fiscal First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Prepared remarks today will be provided by Donnie King, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John R. Tyson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Brady Stewart, Group President, Fresh Meat; Stewart Glendinning, Group President, Prepared Foods; Wes Morris, Group President, Poultry; and Amy Tu, President, International and Chief Administrative Officer, will join the live Q&A session.

早上好，歡迎來到泰森食品公司 2023 財年第一季度收益電話會議。總裁兼首席執行官 Donnie King 將在今天發表準備好的講話；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 John R. Tyson。此外，鮮肉集團總裁 Brady Stewart； Stewart Glendinning，預製食品集團總裁；家禽業務集團總裁 Wes Morris；國際總裁兼首席行政官 Amy Tu 將參加現場問答環節。

We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our comments, which are available on the Investor Relations section of the Tyson website and through the link on our webcast. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future. These forward-looking statements made during this call are provided pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include comments reflecting our expectations, assumptions or beliefs about future events or performance that do not relate solely to historical periods. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our current projections. Please refer to our forward-looking statements disclaimer on Slide 2 as well as our SEC filings for additional information concerning risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our projections.

我們準備了演示幻燈片來補充我們的評論，這些幻燈片可在泰森網站的投資者關係部分和我們的網絡廣播上的鏈接中獲得。在今天的電話會議上，我們將就我們對未來的期望發表前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議期間作出的這些前瞻性陳述是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款提供的。前瞻性陳述包括反映我們對未來事件或業績的預期、假設或信念的評論，這些評論不僅僅與到歷史時期。這些前瞻性陳述受風險、不確定性和假設的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們當前的預測存在重大差異。請參閱我們在幻燈片 2 上的前瞻性聲明免責聲明以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解有關可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預測存在重大差異的風險因素的更多信息。

We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please note that references to earnings per share, operating income and operating margin in our remarks are on an adjusted basis unless otherwise noted. For reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings press release.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。請注意，除非另有說明，否則我們評論中提及的每股收益、營業收入和營業利潤率均經過調整。有關這些非 GAAP 措施與其相應的 GAAP 措施的調節，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。

Now I'll turn the call over to Donnie.

現在我會把電話轉給唐尼。

Thank you, Sean, and thank you to everyone on the call for joining. Earlier today, we announced our first quarter 2023 results. We delivered solid top-line results with year-over-year revenue and volume growth and continued strength in our share position, providing momentum for the remainder of the fiscal year. Compared to record performance in the prior year first quarter earnings declined driven by weaker results in chicken, pork and beef, which more than offset strong performance in Prepared Foods.

謝謝你，肖恩，也感謝所有參加電話會議的人。今天早些時候，我們公佈了 2023 年第一季度的業績。我們取得了穩健的收入和銷量同比增長以及我們的市場份額持續走強的業績，為本財年的剩餘時間提供了動力。與去年創紀錄的業績相比，第一季度的收益有所下降，原因是雞肉、豬肉和牛肉的業績疲軟，這抵消了預製食品的強勁業績。

It's important for you to know that we are uniquely positioned to win in an attractive global protein market. We have market-leading brands across diverse portfolio that resonate with consumers has proven by our year-over-year sales and volume growth. We serve an estimated 1/5 of U.S. protein consumption, and we are well positioned to meet consumer demand, which remains steady despite a challenging macroeconomic environment with ongoing elevated levels of inflation. As we navigate a complex and dynamic operating environment, I'm grateful for our team members whose hard work and dedication make our business operations possible.

重要的是您要知道，我們在具有吸引力的全球蛋白質市場中具有獨特的優勢。我們在多元化的產品組合中擁有市場領先的品牌，這些品牌引起了消費者的共鳴，這已通過我們的同比銷售額和銷量增長得到證明。我們估計占美國蛋白質消費量的 1/5，我們有能力滿足消費者需求，儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰且通貨膨脹水平持續升高，但消費者需求仍保持穩定。當我們在復雜多變的運營環境中航行時，我很感謝我們的團隊成員，他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神使我們的業務運營成為可能。

Five key pillars of our strategy are: transforming our team member experience; growing with our customers to service demand; investing in digital and automation to drive operational excellence; restoring competitiveness in our Chicken segment; and leveraging our financial strength to invest in the business and return cash to shareholders.

我們戰略的五個關鍵支柱是： 改變我們的團隊成員體驗；與客戶一起成長以服務需求；投資於數字化和自動化以推動卓越運營；恢復我們雞肉部門的競爭力；並利用我們的財務實力投資業務並將現金返還給股東。

In service of these long-term strategic imperatives, I'd like to emphasize that we continue to deliver on our commitment of growing volume by filling up our footprint, solving labor problems, investing in automation and building inventory to meet customer demand with improved fill rates all while maintaining a focus on liquidity and financial health. We are confident these investments will pay dividends over the long run, and we remain committed to methodically executing our growth strategy driving long-term value creation for our shareholders.

為了滿足這些長期戰略需要，我想強調的是，我們將繼續履行我們的承諾，通過填充足跡、解決勞動力問題、投資自動化和建立庫存來滿足客戶需求，從而提高產量利率，同時保持對流動性和財務健康的關注。我們相信，從長遠來看，這些投資將帶來紅利，我們將繼續致力於有條不紊地執行我們的增長戰略，為股東創造長期價值。

Now let me take a moment to discuss our results and shed some light on some of the challenges and outlook. We went into Q1 with a good plan, but our overall results were impacted by a confluence of factors, including consumer and customer demand dynamics and the curve of the Beef cycle, among other things. Allow me to touch on each segment.

現在讓我花點時間討論一下我們的結果，並闡明一些挑戰和前景。我們以良好的計劃進入第一季度，但我們的整體業績受到多種因素的影響，包括消費者和客戶需求動態以及牛肉週期曲線等。請允許我談談每個部分。

As we have previously mentioned to you, we have been expecting Beef to come under pressure for some time. With higher cattle prices, we expected overall harvest to slow down, but that hasn't happened yet. As such, we continue to draw on the herd, which continues to decline. This is putting pressure on spread margin in the business. We tightened our outlook range for the year. For Pork, when you account for mark-to-market derivatives in the number, we flip back to breakeven as expected, but given continued supply and demand dynamics, we lowered our outlook for the year by 200 basis points. For Chicken, when compared to expectations from last quarter, a few different things didn't go as planned. Most notably, demand didn't appear in the parts of the market where we had expected. As a result, we had to move things around, and we experienced higher cost, a lower price environment and knock-on effects from a network standpoint. And last, it's worth emphasizing our Prepared Foods segment, which delivered a great result for the quarter.

正如我們之前向您提到的，一段時間以來，我們一直預計 Beef 會承受壓力。隨著牛價上漲，我們預計整體收割會放緩，但尚未發生。因此，我們繼續利用不斷下降的牛群。這給業務的利差帶來壓力。我們收緊了今年的展望範圍。對於豬肉，當您將按市值計價的衍生品計入數量時，我們會按預期恢復盈虧平衡，但鑑於持續的供需動態，我們將今年的預期下調了 200 個基點。對於 Chicken，與上一季度的預期相比，一些不同的事情沒有按計劃進行。最值得注意的是，需求並未出現在我們預期的市場部分。結果，我們不得不四處走動，我們經歷了更高的成本、更低的價格環境以及從網絡角度來看的連鎖反應。最後，值得強調的是我們的預製食品部門，該部門在本季度取得了不錯的成績。

We said we were going to grow dollar share and volume share with the strongest portfolio of brands in the categories where we compete and we've done just that. We're feeling good about the outlook for the balance of the year. And our International business continues to build momentum in terms of volume and sales growth. With the end of COVID lockdowns, particularly in China, we expect good year-over-year comps. We'll dive deeper into this during the discussion of segment results and the Q&A portion of the call.

我們說過，我們將與我們競爭的類別中最強大的品牌組合一起增加美元份額和銷量份額，我們已經做到了。我們對今年剩餘時間的前景感覺良好。我們的國際業務在數量和銷售增長方面繼續保持增長勢頭。隨著 COVID 封鎖的結束，尤其是在中國，我們預計會有良好的同比增長。我們將在討論細分結果和電話的問答部分時深入探討這一點。

Now let's turn to our growth numbers. Sales improved 2.5% year-over-year. And as we delivered record first quarter revenue for a total company and individually in Chicken, Prepared Foods and International Other, we are focused on driving growth in these segments, which will enhance our margin profile over time. We continue to see benefits of our efforts to optimize our existing footprint, add new capacity, adjust our product mix by plant and match our portfolio more closely with customer and consumer needs.

現在讓我們來看看我們的增長數字。銷售額同比增長 2.5%。由於我們在整個公司以及雞肉、預製食品和國際其他領域的第一季度實現了創紀錄的收入，因此我們專注於推動這些領域的增長，這將隨著時間的推移提高我們的利潤率。我們繼續看到我們努力優化現有足跡、增加新產能、按工廠調整產品組合以及使我們的產品組合更貼近客戶和消費者需求的好處。

Prepared Foods revenues increased 8.8% for the quarter, driven by both volume growth and pricing actions implemented in the prior year. Positive momentum continues to build in Prepared Foods, as it delivered sequential quarterly improvement in revenue since the fiscal fourth quarter of 2021, driven primarily by the strength of our retail brands. Beef revenue was down 5.6% compared to prior year. Lower average sales price driven by the decreased value of Beef cutout more than offset the increased volume from higher headcount throughput. Compared to prior year, Pork revenue was down 6% for the quarter, this was driven by decreased volume due to balancing supply with customer demand, partly offset by an increase in average sales price.

預製食品本季度的收入增長了 8.8%，這得益於上一年實施的銷量增長和定價行動。預製食品繼續保持積極勢頭，自 2021 財年第四季度以來，其收入連續季度增長，這主要受我們零售品牌實力的推動。牛肉收入較上年下降 5.6%。牛肉分切價值下降導致的平均銷售價格下降，足以抵消員工吞吐量增加帶來的銷量增長。與去年同期相比，本季度豬肉收入下降 6%，這是由於供需平衡導致銷量下降，部分被平均銷售價格上漲所抵消。

Chicken revenue increased 9.6% compared to prior year, driven by volume growth from increased domestic production and pricing initiatives and an elevated inflationary cost environment. In International, revenue growth remained strong, up 11.3% compared to prior year quarter. This was driven by our investment in capacity, innovation and brand to support market share growth.

雞肉收入較上年增長 9.6%，這主要受國內產量增加和定價舉措帶來的銷量增長以及通脹成本環境上升的推動。在國際業務中，收入增長依然強勁，與去年同期相比增長了 11.3%。這是由我們在能力、創新和品牌方面的投資推動的，以支持市場份額的增長。

In the next few slides, we will detail our success winning in retail marketplace with our advantaged brands in advantaged categories. The retail categories in which we participate are highly consumer-relevant with the vast majority remaining elevated relative to pre-pandemic and demonstrating growth over the prior year. With our iconic retail brands, Tyson; Jimmy Dean; Hillshire Farm; and Ball Park, Tyson core business lines outpaced total food and beverage and our peers in volume growth, up 9% relative to a year ago per Nielsen. Tyson core business lines also grew pound share by 2 points this quarter relative to a year ago per Nielsen. Continuing to be market share leader in most of the retail core categories in which we compete, we delivered both dollar and pound share growth in both the aggregate and across day parts compared to a year ago, most notably in the Morning Meal occasion.

在接下來的幾張幻燈片中，我們將詳細介紹我們憑藉優勢品類中的優勢品牌在零售市場取得的成功。我們參與的零售類別與消費者高度相關，其中絕大多數與大流行前相比仍處於較高水平，並顯示出比上一年有所增長。憑藉我們的標誌性零售品牌 Tyson；吉米·迪恩；希爾郡農場；和棒球場，泰森核心業務線的銷量增長超過食品和飲料總量以及我們的同行，根據尼爾森的數據，與一年前相比增長了 9%。根據尼爾森的數據，本季度泰森核心業務線的英鎊份額也比一年前增長了 2 個百分點。在我們競爭的大多數零售核心類別中繼續保持市場份額領先地位，與一年前相比，我們在總計和全天部分的美元和英鎊份額都實現了增長，尤其是在早餐時段。

Our brands continue to perform well as we see elasticities below historical levels. Additionally, Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm and Ball Park, all hold favorite brand status with consumers in the categories in which we compete, highlighting our brand strength relative to our peers. Consumers spend on relevant categories and brands they know and trust. The trajectory of our Tyson core business lines' volume share growth shows the recovery we have seen since April and the momentum we now have. We have improved fill rates and on-shelf availability.

我們的品牌繼續表現良好，因為我們看到彈性低於歷史水平。此外，Tyson、Jimmy Dean、Hillshire Farm 和 Ball Park 在我們競爭的品類中都享有消費者喜愛的品牌地位，凸顯了我們相對於同行的品牌實力。消費者在他們了解和信任的相關品類和品牌上花費。我們泰森核心業務線銷量份額增長的軌跡顯示了我們自 4 月以來看到的複蘇以及我們現在擁有的勢頭。我們提高了填充率和貨架可用性。

Price gaps relative to competitors have narrowed while we continue to invest in merchandising and advertising to support our brands. These factors, along with other strong business fundamentals resulted in sequential quarterly share growth in Tyson core business lines commanding a 5-year record high market share of nearly 28%. It is evident we are delivering the brands and products that consumers desire.

與競爭對手的價格差距已經縮小，同時我們繼續投資於商品銷售和廣告以支持我們的品牌。這些因素，連同其他強勁的業務基本面，導致泰森核心業務線的連續季度份額增長，佔據近 28% 的 5 年曆史新高的市場份額。很明顯，我們正在提供消費者想要的品牌和產品。

While the foodservice industry is yet to recover to pre-pandemic traffic levels, the Tyson Focus 6 group is outperforming pre-pandemic volume sales, up 2.7 and 1.7 share points in the latest 52 weeks according to NPD SupplyTrack data. The Tyson Focus 6 group is also outpacing both total broadline and its respective categories up 11.7% in volume sales and 0.6 share points in the latest 52 weeks compared to last year per NPD. We believe strongly in our foodservice portfolio and are confident in the path to continue to grow this business as we align with key growing customers to build momentum for the future.

根據 NPD SupplyTrack 的數據，雖然餐飲服務行業尚未恢復到大流行前的流量水平，但 Tyson Focus 6 集團的銷量表現優於大流行前，在最近 52 週內分別上漲了 2.7 和 1.7 個份額點。根據 NPD，在最近 52 週內，Tyson Focus 6 集團的銷量也超過了總線及其各自類別，銷量增長了 11.7%，份額增長了 0.6 個百分點。我們堅信我們的餐飲服務組合，並有信心繼續發展這項業務，因為我們與主要增長的客戶保持一致，為未來創造動力。

Our team members are essential to providing the products our customers and consumers demand. We're seeing business results from making significant investments to become the most sought-after place to work by investing in our team members' experience. Recent highlights include expanding access to benefits with day 1 eligibility, enhanced parental leave policies, expanding mental health benefits and citizenship support at no cost to our U.S. team members. In November, as recognition for our Tyson immigration program's commitment to improving the lives of immigrant team members, we received the prestigious keeper of the American Dream Award from the National Immigration Forum. We also just completed what we've been calling Project Next Frontier. We are setting the foundation for an HR shared service model focused on process and system efficacy and better overall HR service delivery for our team members, setting us up for savings in the future.

我們的團隊成員對於提供客戶和消費者所需的產品至關重要。通過投資於我們團隊成員的經驗，我們看到了通過大量投資成為最受歡迎的工作場所的業務成果。最近的亮點包括通過第 1 天的資格擴大福利的獲取範圍、加強育兒假政策、擴大心理健康福利以及免費為我們的美國團隊成員提供公民支持。 11 月，作為對我們泰森移民計劃致力於改善移民團隊成員生活的認可，我們獲得了國家移民論壇頒發的享有盛譽的美國夢獎。我們還剛剛完成了我們稱之為 Project Next Frontier 的項目。我們正在為專注於流程和系統效率的 HR 共享服務模型奠定基礎，並為我們的團隊成員提供更好的整體 HR 服務，為我們未來的節省做好準備。

I am pleased to report we're also progressing as expected with our North American headquarters consolidation focused on building our One Tyson culture. In addition to realizing savings, we are collaborating, innovating and working with greater speed and agility to serve our customers. I would also like to thank our team members for their dedication that led to Tyson Foods #1 ranking on Fortune Magazine's list of the world's most admired companies in food production category for the seventh consecutive year.

我很高興地報告，我們在北美總部整合方面也取得了預期的進展，重點是建立我們的 One Tyson 文化。除了實現節約之外，我們還在協作、創新，並以更快的速度和更敏捷的方式為我們的客戶服務。我還要感謝我們的團隊成員的奉獻精神，使泰森食品連續第七年在《財富》雜誌的全球食品生產類最受讚賞公司名單中排名第一。

Following the strong outperformance of expectation in fiscal 2022, the productivity program is on track to meet expectations this fiscal year and to deliver the $1 billion of recurring savings' commitment a year earlier than originally promised. We expect this program to translate from a onetime initiative to sustain year-on-year productivity improvements, supporting our bottom line on a continued basis. Examples of initiatives in our productivity program include leveraging data analytics to improve inventory visibility; mitigating distressed pounds; a direct plant shipment program, which continues to bring on new customers and categories; removing miles from the roads and driving efficiency in our distribution network, this is an example of how our scale drives competitive advantage, investing heavily in automation, we recently rolled out automated sandwich hand-wrap and burrito assembly capabilities as well as an automated line to serve snacking production.

繼 2022 財年的強勁表現超出預期之後，生產力計劃有望在本財年達到預期，並比最初承諾提前一年兌現 10 億美元的經常性儲蓄承諾。我們希望該計劃能夠從一次性舉措轉變為維持生產率逐年提高，從而持續支持我們的底線。我們生產力計劃中的舉措示例包括利用數據分析來提高庫存可見性；減輕痛苦的體重；直接工廠裝運計劃，繼續帶來新的客戶和類別；在我們的分銷網絡中減少道路里程和提高效率，這是我們的規模如何推動競爭優勢的一個例子，大力投資自動化，我們最近推出了自動化三明治手工包裝和墨西哥捲餅組裝能力以及一條自動化生產線服務於零食生產。

We have also continued to scale our Chicken debone automation across multiple facilities, and we are piloting a robotic tray pack machine that is showing promising results, expanding our Smart Factory program to digitize our plants to new sites as well as exploring opportunities to digitize our processes. Our progress displays how Tyson remains focused on optimizing our business processes, digitalizing the supply chain, increasing automation and aggressively managing SG&A across our operations.

我們還繼續在多個設施中擴展我們的雞肉去骨自動化，我們正在試用機器人托盤包裝機，結果很有希望，擴展我們的智能工廠計劃，將我們的工廠數字化到新地點，並探索將我們的流程數字化的機會.我們的進展表明 Tyson 如何繼續專注於優化我們的業務流程、數字化供應鏈、提高自動化程度以及在我們的運營中積極管理 SG&A。

Before I turn the call over to John to walk us through more detail on our financial results for the quarter, some final comments. Our segments individually and in aggregate, have clear and compelling roles within Tyson's portfolio strategy to deliver sustainable, high-quality growth at good value. We have a powerful and diverse portfolio across proteins and channels around the world. We have products for consumers across proteins and price points, delivering performance that supports the company's long-term earnings' objectives and desirable return for shareholders. We are modernizing our operations with our productivity program and are building a team positioned to take advantage of the opportunities in front of us.

在我將電話轉給 John 向我們介紹本季度財務業績的更多細節之前，先做一些最後的評論。我們的各個部門和總體而言，在泰森的投資組合戰略中扮演著明確而引人注目的角色，以實現可持續、高質量的增長和良好的價值。我們在世界各地的蛋白質和渠道中擁有強大而多樣化的產品組合。我們為消費者提供各種蛋白質和價位的產品，提供支持公司長期盈利目標和股東理想回報的業績。我們正在通過我們的生產力計劃使我們的運營現代化，並正在建立一個能夠利用我們面前的機會的團隊。

Again, we entered Q1 with a good plan to execute our strategy. That led to solid top-line growth and strong performance in Prepared Foods. Market dynamics and some operational inefficiencies impacted our profitability. We see opportunities to become more agile and efficient, which will further improve our operational execution. We remain committed to executing our growth strategy and are confident we will grow volume, revenue and operating income in the back half of fiscal year 2023 and have a long runway of growth ahead of us.

同樣，我們帶著執行戰略的良好計劃進入第一季度。這導致預製食品的穩健收入增長和強勁表現。市場動態和一些運營效率低下影響了我們的盈利能力。我們看到了變得更加敏捷和高效的機會，這將進一步改善我們的運營執行力。我們仍然致力於執行我們的增長戰略，並相信我們將在 2023 財年下半年實現銷量、收入和營業收入的增長，並且還有很長的增長路要走。

With that, I will turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Donnie. First, let's review a summary of our total company financial performance, then we can dive deeper into the details for the individual segments. As Donnie stated, sales were up year-over-year for the first quarter, benefiting from both volume growth and disciplined revenue management to offset elevated inflationary increases in our cost of goods.

謝謝，唐尼。首先，讓我們回顧一下公司總體財務業績的摘要，然後我們可以更深入地研究各個細分市場的細節。正如 Donnie 所說，第一季度銷售額同比增長，這得益於銷量增長和嚴格的收入管理，以抵消我們商品成本的通脹上升。

Looking at our sales results by channel, retail drove $324 million of top-line improvement led by Chicken and Prepared Foods. Our industrial and other channel sales increased by $108 million, led by Beef and Chicken and this was offset by slight decreases in sales to the foodservice and International channels. As expected, given the record strength of Beef a year ago, we delivered lower adjusted operating income in the prior year of $453 million. This translated to an adjusted earnings per share of $0.85.

按渠道查看我們的銷售結果，零售推動了 3.24 億美元的收入增長，其中雞肉和預製食品為首。在牛肉和雞肉的帶動下，我們的工業和其他渠道銷售額增長了 1.08 億美元，這被餐飲服務和國際渠道的銷售額略有下降所抵消。正如預期的那樣，鑑於一年前牛肉的創紀錄實力，我們在上一年實現了較低的調整後營業收入 4.53 億美元。這轉化為調整後的每股收益 0.85 美元。

Now turning to the adjusted operating income bridge. We significantly grew Prepared Foods earnings in the quarter, but underperformance in Chicken, Pork and Beef led to $979 million lower operating income compared to the prior year. While pricing actions led to an improvement of $222 million, higher input costs per pound increased cost of goods sold by $1.3 billion. About 2/3 of this increase was driven by inflationary impacts on raw material and supply chain costs. The remainder was primarily due to a shift to producing more value-added mix, higher labor costs and unfavorable derivative impact. Excluding the impact of restructuring, SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales was down to 3.7% from 4.3% in the prior fiscal year as we continue to eliminate non-value-added spend across our business while investing to support the future growth of our brands. Our productivity program continues to play a critical role in the long-term improvement of our margin profile.

現在轉向調整後的營業收入橋樑。我們在本季度顯著增加了預製食品的收入，但雞肉、豬肉和牛肉的表現不佳導致營業收入比上一年減少了 9.79 億美元。雖然定價行動帶來了 2.22 億美元的改善，但每磅更高的投入成本使銷售商品的成本增加了 13 億美元。這一增長的大約 2/3 是由通貨膨脹對原材料和供應鏈成本的影響所推動的。其餘部分主要是由於轉向生產更多增值組合、更高的勞動力成本和不利的衍生品影響。排除重組的影響，SG&A 費用佔銷售額的百分比從上一財年的 4.3% 降至 3.7%，因為我們繼續在業務中消除非增值支出，同時投資支持我們品牌的未來增長.我們的生產力計劃繼續在長期改善我們的利潤率方面發揮關鍵作用。

Now to the individual segment results. Starting with the Beef segment. Sales in the quarter remained strong at more than $4.7 billion but were down 5.6% compared to record high sales in the prior year. Volume gains of 2.9% were supported by improved staffing for higher throughput, while the average sales price was down 8.5% due to softer domestic demand for Beef. Live cattle costs increased approximately $530 million in the quarter as capital supplies continue to tighten. Net-net, segment operating income for Beef was $129 million for an operating margin of 2.7% off the previous year's historical record first quarter margin of 19%.

現在到各個細分市場的結果。從牛肉部分開始。本季度銷售額保持強勁，超過 47 億美元，但與去年創紀錄的銷售額相比下降了 5.6%。銷量增長 2.9% 得益於人員配備的增加以提高吞吐量，而由於國內對牛肉的需求疲軟，平均銷售價格下降了 8.5%。由於資本供應繼續收緊，本季度活牛成本增加了約 5.3 億美元。牛肉部門的淨淨營業收入為 1.29 億美元，營業利潤率為 2.7%，低於去年第一季度 19% 的歷史紀錄。

We saw higher cattle prices as Beef herd numbers continue to decline. We will continue to monitor the Beef cutout value and balance our supply with customer demand during a period of margin compression while pushing volume growth in case-ready and premium branded products. Although the near-term operating environment remains challenging, we have reasons to believe in our long-term outlook for Beef. This outlook is supported by our investment in strategic supplier relationships that provide higher quality beef, a growing global demand, specifically in Asia, and the strengthening drop credit as well as opportunities to shift our Beef products up the value pyramid.

隨著肉牛群數量持續下降，我們看到牛價上漲。我們將繼續監控牛肉分切價值，並在利潤率壓縮期間平衡我們的供應與客戶需求，同時推動即食和優質品牌產品的銷量增長。儘管近期的經營環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們有理由相信我們對牛肉的長期前景。這一前景得到了我們對提供更高質量牛肉的戰略供應商關係的投資、不斷增長的全球需求（特別是在亞洲）、加強降額信貸以及將我們的牛肉產品提升到價值金字塔頂端的機會的支持。

Now let's look at the Pork segment. Sales were approximately $1.5 billion for the quarter, down 6% for the record high in the prior year. Average sales price gains of 1.4%, mostly driven by higher value specialty products were offset by volume decreases of 7.4%. International demand for U.S. pork products continues to be impacted by the strong U.S. dollar, while domestic demand is being affected by high retail prices despite the cutout realigning to historical norms. However, we are optimistic that when these factors normalize, demand will improve. We expect to see continued industry supply challenges in the fiscal year as the producer navigates herd health issues and higher input costs. On expenses, we incurred greater costs as lean hog costs increased approximately $55 million over the prior year.

現在讓我們看看豬肉部分。本季度銷售額約為 15 億美元，較上年創下的歷史新高下降 6%。平均銷售價格上漲 1.4%，主要由價值較高的特色產品推動，但被銷量下降 7.4% 所抵消。國際對美國豬肉產品的需求繼續受到強勢美元的影響，而國內需求正受到高零售價格的影響，儘管分切調整符合歷史標準。然而，我們樂觀地認為，當這些因素正常化時，需求將會改善。隨著生產商解決牛群健康問題和更高的投入成本，我們預計本財年行業供應將繼續面臨挑戰。在費用方面，我們產生了更多的成本，因為瘦肉豬的成本比上一年增加了大約 5500 萬美元。

We also experienced an unfavorable year-over-year derivative impact of $35 million. Segment operating income was lower than expected at a loss of $19 million for the quarter, down from a profit of $160 million in the prior year. As we move forward, Pork margins should be supported over time with the normalization and the strength of the U.S. dollar aiding future export demand, a strengthening drop credit and additional opportunity to shift Pork products up the value pyramid, especially into our case-ready business.

我們還經歷了 3500 萬美元的不利同比衍生品影響。該部門營業收入低於預期，本季度虧損 1900 萬美元，低於去年同期的利潤 1.6 億美元。隨著我們的前進，隨著美元的正常化和走強有助於未來的出口需求、加強降息以及將豬肉產品提升到價值金字塔的額外機會，特別是進入我們的案例準備業務，豬肉利潤率應該隨著時間的推移得到支持.

Now let's move on to the Chicken segment's results. Sales were a record first quarter high at $4.3 billion, up 9.6% from the prior year. The sales increase was attributable to a 2.5% uptick in volume and 7.1% gain in pricing compared to the prior year quarter. Volume gains are due to a combination of strategic choices to maximize our capacity utilization and pursue an optimal mix strategy with products and customers. Our pricing results while improved, were lower than expected. We pegged this to a combination of factors that influence chicken prices, mostly related to total protein availability, notably chicken and beef. We anticipate these factors easing in the back half of 2023 as beef availability lessen and total poultry harvest normalizes, providing support for improvement in our chicken prices. The fall in commodity chicken prices driven by heightened protein supply in the market and seasonal demand weakness does not change our strategy.

現在讓我們繼續看雞肉部分的結果。第一季度銷售額創下歷史新高，達到 43 億美元，同比增長 9.6%。與去年同期相比，銷售額增長了 2.5%，價格上漲了 7.1%。銷量增長歸功於戰略選擇的組合，以最大限度地提高我們的產能利用率，並追求與產品和客戶的最佳組合戰略。我們的定價結果雖然有所改善，但低於預期。我們將此歸因於影響雞肉價格的多種因素，主要與總蛋白質供應量有關，尤其是雞肉和牛肉。我們預計這些因素將在 2023 年下半年緩解，因為牛肉供應量減少，家禽總產量恢復正常，為我們的雞肉價格改善提供支持。市場蛋白質供應增加和季節性需求疲軟導致商品雞肉價格下跌並沒有改變我們的策略。

Based on current USDA industry pullet placement data, we're optimistic on the forward-looking supply conditions in the intermediate term. We intend to grow our domestic production to 42 million head per week during this fiscal year, which should enable us to improve our fixed cost leverage, grow volume and gain market share. We'll continue optimizing our plant network and portfolio mix to maximize the profitability of our Chicken segment, particularly by growing our portfolio of value-added products, which remain in high demand. Operating income in the quarter was negatively impacted by $225 million of higher feed ingredient costs and an unfavorable year-over-year derivative impact of approximately $40 million. Net-net, our Chicken segment delivered operating income of $77 million in the first quarter.

根據美國農業部目前的行業母雞安置數據，我們對中期的前瞻性供應狀況持樂觀態度。我們打算在本財年將國內產量增加到每週 4200 萬頭，這將使我們能夠提高固定成本槓桿率、增加產量並獲得市場份額。我們將繼續優化我們的工廠網絡和產品組合，以最大限度地提高我們雞肉部門的盈利能力，特別是通過增加我們仍然需求量很大的增值產品組合。本季度的營業收入受到 2.25 億美元的飼料原料成本上漲和約 4000 萬美元的同比衍生品不利影響的負面影響。淨值，我們的雞肉部門在第一季度實現了 7700 萬美元的營業收入。

We see significant room for improvement in the long-term operating margin of our Chicken segment as there is still work to do to attain industry-leading performance, and we are optimistic it can be achieved due to the following: our diversified value-added portfolio with lower margin volatility; our brand strength with the highest consumer awareness and brand loyalty according to Nielsen data; our growth strategy; taking advantage of existing capacity; optimization of our portfolio by shifting from commodity to value-added products; and last, a further implementation of our productivity program as we ramp up more automation.

我們認為我們的雞肉部門的長期營業利潤率有很大的改善空間，因為要達到行業領先的業績仍有工作要做，我們樂觀地認為它可以實現，原因如下：我們多元化的增值產品組合保證金波動性較低；根據尼爾森數據，我們的品牌實力具有最高的消費者認知度和品牌忠誠度；我們的增長戰略；利用現有能力；通過從商品轉向增值產品來優化我們的產品組合；最後，隨著我們提高自動化程度，進一步實施我們的生產力計劃。

Last, I want to turn to our Prepared Foods business. In this segment, we had a solid quarter with growth in both revenue and volume. This was driven by strong brands, increased support for our customers and pricing aimed at recovering the continued inflation. Revenue was approximately $2.5 billion for a record first quarter, up 8.8% compared to the prior year. Volume gains of 1.2% were driven by strength in retail, notably Jimmy Dean and improved customer fulfillment despite decreased volumes in foodservice. This quarter was our third sequential quarter of volume growth, and we saw significant pricing power of our portfolio with a year-over-year increase of 7.6%. Driven by top-line growth and productivity savings, we delivered segment operating income of $266 million for the quarter. The operating margin of 10.5% was up from 8% in the prior year. We're very pleased with the performance of this quarter in Prepared Foods, as this segment is critical to drive profitable growth for Tyson by valuing of Beef, Pork and Chicken commodity meat products.

最後，我想談談我們的預製食品業務。在這個細分市場中，我們有一個穩定的季度，收入和銷量都有增長。這是由強大的品牌、對我們客戶的更多支持以及旨在恢復持續通貨膨脹的定價所推動的。第一季度收入約為 25 億美元，同比增長 8.8%，創歷史新高。銷量增長 1.2% 的原因是零售業（尤其是 Jimmy Dean）的強勁表現以及儘管餐飲服務銷量下降但客戶滿意度提高的推動。本季度是我們連續第三個季度銷量增長，我們看到我們的產品組合具有顯著的定價能力，同比增長 7.6%。在收入增長和生產力節約的推動下，我們在本季度實現了 2.66 億美元的分部營業收入。營業利潤率為 10.5%，高於去年的 8%。我們對本季度預製食品的表現感到非常滿意，因為該部門通過評估牛肉、豬肉和雞肉商品肉類產品對推動泰森的盈利增長至關重要。

We continue to be optimistic for the outlook of this segment due to the following: our diversified portfolio meets consumers across meal eating occasions and snacking occasions in all sales channels; we are outperforming our competition in retail with a room to grow further market household penetration; our comprehensive foodservice portfolio has opportunity to grow by regaining lost customers and broadening our customer base; we've got additional operational efficiencies to unlock by increasing plant utilization in addition to the implementation of our various productivity initiatives; and finally, we have an opportunity to innovate, expand and acquire into new spaces through new offerings, the growth of our existing products and attractive disciplined approach to M&A.

我們繼續對該分部的前景持樂觀態度，原因如下：我們在零售方面的表現優於我們的競爭對手，並有進一步提高市場家庭滲透率的空間；我們全面的餐飲服務組合有機會通過重新獲得失去的客戶和擴大我們的客戶群來實現增長；除了實施各種生產力計劃之外，我們還通過提高工廠利用率來提高運營效率；最後，我們有機會通過新產品、現有產品的增長和有吸引力的、有紀律的併購方法來創新、擴展和收購新領域。

Now, turning to talk about our financial position. Building financial strength, investing in our business and returning cash to shareholders remain the priorities of our capital allocation strategy. We produced operating cash flows of $762 million for the quarter, and our leverage ratio finished the quarter at 1.6x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating our commitment to a sound balance sheet. Focused primarily on new capacity and automation objectives, we invested nearly $600 million into our business in the first quarter to capitalize on projected demand growth over the next decade. Investment in the business, both organically and inorganically, is expected to generate returns at or above our 12% return on invested capital target over time. Our capital allocation priorities are first to invest in growth and productivity in our existing footprint. Then we will employ a disciplined M&A approach by investing in opportunities that fit well with our existing portfolio.

現在，轉而談談我們的財務狀況。建立財務實力、投資我們的業務和向股東返還現金仍然是我們資本配置戰略的優先事項。本季度我們產生了 7.62 億美元的運營現金流，本季度結束時我們的槓桿率為調整後 EBITDA 淨債務的 1.6 倍，表明我們對穩健資產負債表的承諾。主要關注新產能和自動化目標，我們在第一季度向我們的業務投資了近 6 億美元，以利用未來十年的預期需求增長。隨著時間的推移，對業務的有機和無機投資預計將產生等於或高於我們 12% 的投資資本回報率目標的回報。我們的資本分配優先事項是首先投資於我們現有足蹟的增長和生產力。然後，我們將通過投資適合我們現有投資組合的機會，採用有紀律的併購方法。

Next, we remain focused on returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Notably, we will continue to support and grow the dividend for our shareholders as evidenced by its continuous payment since 1977 and annual increases each fiscal year since 2013.

接下來，我們仍然專注於通過股息和股票回購向股東返還現金。值得注意的是，我們將繼續支持和增加股東的股息，自 1977 年以來的持續支付和自 2013 年以來每個財政年度的年度增長就證明了這一點。

Our approach to share buybacks will continue to be managing for dilution and entering the market opportunistically when assessing for multiple factors. We returned nearly $500 million in cash to shareholders in the quarter through $169 million in dividends and $313 million of share repurchases. At Tyson, we utilize a disciplined capital allocation approach to invest in our business for both organic and inorganic growth, and we returned cash to shareholders while maintaining a robust balance sheet.

在評估多種因素時，我們的股票回購方法將繼續管理稀釋和機會主義進入市場。我們在本季度通過 1.69 億美元的股息和 3.13 億美元的股票回購向股東返還了近 5 億美元的現金。在泰森，我們採用嚴格的資本分配方法來投資我們的業務，以實現有機和無機增長，我們向股東返還現金，同時保持穩健的資產負債表。

Now let's turn to the fiscal 2023 financial outlook. We are maintaining our total company sales guidance of $55 billion to $57 billion, which implies a 3% to 7% sales growth for the year. Supported by the factors detailed earlier, we expect future Beef segment margins to be in a normalized range of 5% to 7% in the long term. However, based on current market dynamics, we now expect to perform between 2% and 4% this fiscal year. Given the result in Pork in the first quarter, we are lowering margin guidance for the year to be between 0% and 2%. Counter to normal seasonality for our Pork segment, we expect the back half of the year to outperform the first half of the year.

現在讓我們轉向 2023 財年的財務展望。我們將公司總銷售額指引維持在 550 億美元至 570 億美元之間，這意味著今年銷售額將增長 3% 至 7%。在前面詳述的因素的支持下，我們預計未來牛肉部門的長期利潤率將處於 5% 至 7% 的正常範圍內。然而，根據當前的市場動態，我們現在預計本財年的業績將在 2% 至 4% 之間。鑑於第一季度豬肉的業績，我們將今年的利潤率指引下調至 0% 至 2% 之間。與我們豬肉業務的正常季節性相反，我們預計今年下半年的表現將優於上半年。

For our Poultry business, we now expect full year margins to be between 2% and 4%, but gaining momentum through the year and exiting the fourth quarter at a margin above this range. Prepared Foods had a strong first quarter in performance as this is historically normal seasonality for the segment, we're maintaining our expected full year margin performance to be between 8% and 10%. In International, we continue to see volume and sales growth year-over-year, and we anticipate improved profitability in fiscal 2023, driven by volume and revenue growth from new facilities ramping up. We remain committed to growing our business internationally, representing the fastest-growing protein consumption markets in the world.

對於我們的家禽業務，我們現在預計全年利潤率在 2% 到 4% 之間，但全年增長勢頭強勁，第四季度結束時利潤率高於這一範圍。預製食品第一季度表現強勁，因為這在歷史上是該細分市場的正常季節性，我們將全年利潤率預期維持在 8% 至 10% 之間。在國際業務方面，我們繼續看到銷量和銷售額同比增長，我們預計 2023 財年的盈利能力將有所提高，這將受到新設施增加帶來的銷量和收入增長的推動。我們仍然致力於在國際上發展我們的業務，代表著世界上增長最快的蛋白質消費市場。

Our expectation for CapEx for the remainder of the year is unchanged at approximately $2.5 billion. Our expectations for productivity savings remain unchanged at $300 million to $400 million. Our net interest expense and tax rate are now expected to be around $330 million and 24%, respectively. We remain committed to our investment-grade rating and managing our net leverage ratio to be at or below 2x net debt to adjusted EBITDA over the long term, providing optionality for inorganic investment and additional return of cash to shareholders.

我們對今年剩餘時間資本支出的預期保持不變，約為 25 億美元。我們對生產力節省的預期保持不變，為 3 億至 4 億美元。我們的淨利息支出和稅率現在預計分別約為 3.3 億美元和 24%。我們仍然致力於我們的投資級評級，並將我們的淨槓桿率管理為長期等於或低於淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的 2 倍，為無機投資提供選擇權，並為股東提供額外的現金回報。

In summary, we had a slower start than expected, but are optimistic on the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year and long term. We have a great team, growing demand for our products, strong portfolio diversity and a differentiated asset footprint needed to win in the marketplace. Overall, we see some persistent market factors, some operational challenges and some expected seasonality influencing our second quarter results. And therefore, we're expecting total company volume, revenue and operating income to be meaningfully stronger in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year. We remain in a strong financial position to support continued investment in our existing footprint, productivity and the support of our brands as we continue to grow our business and provide desirable returns for our shareholders.

總而言之，我們的開局比預期慢，但對本財年剩餘時間和長期的前景持樂觀態度。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊、對我們產品不斷增長的需求、強大的產品組合多樣性和差異化的資產足跡，這是在市場上取勝所必需的。總體而言，我們看到一些持續的市場因素、一些運營挑戰和一些預期的季節性因素影響了我們第二季度的業績。因此，我們預計與上半年相比，下半年公司的總銷量、收入和營業收入將顯著增強。隨著我們繼續發展我們的業務並為我們的股東提供理想的回報，我們仍然擁有強大的財務狀況來支持對我們現有足跡、生產力和品牌支持的持續投資。

So with all that, I'll turn the call back over to Sean for Q&A instructions.

因此，儘管如此，我還是會把電話轉回 Sean 以獲取問答說明。

Thanks, John. We will now move on to your questions. Please recall our cautions on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A.

謝謝，約翰。我們現在將繼續回答您的問題。請記住我們對前瞻性陳述的警告，非 GAAP 措施適用於我們準備好的評論和以下問答。

Operator, please provide the Q&A instruction.

運營商，請提供問答說明。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Today's first question comes from Alexia Howard with Sanford Bernstein.

今天的第一個問題來自 Alexia Howard 和 Sanford Bernstein。

Okay. I guess we need to focus in on the Chicken segment here, and I know in your prepared remarks, you made some comments about why things came up short this quarter. Can you talk about what was the big negative surprises, chicken prices, it sounds like there were some operational and executional issues? And also, as we look forward, can you talk about how quickly you expect some of those issues to resolve? And what gives you the confidence that they might improve over the remainder of the year? And then I have a follow-up.

好的。我想我們需要在這里關注雞肉部分，我知道在您準備好的發言中，您對本季度出現問題的原因發表了一些評論。你能談談最大的負面意外是什麼，雞肉價格，聽起來好像有一些運營和執行問題？而且，正如我們所期待的，您能否談談您希望其中一些問題能夠多快得到解決？是什麼讓您相信他們可能會在今年餘下的時間裡有所改善？然後我有一個後續行動。

Okay. Alexia, thank you for your question. I'll start out with some broad comments, and we'll get a little more tactical as it relates to Chicken and then wait for your next question. But I would just simply tell you that Q1 was a very challenging quarter for us as the confluence of several external factors across all businesses, we saw market swings across all businesses and they were unpredictable and sizable.

好的。亞歷克西婭，謝謝你的問題。我將從一些廣泛的評論開始，我們將獲得更多與 Chicken 相關的戰術，然後等待您的下一個問題。但我只想簡單地告訴你，第一季度對我們來說是一個非常具有挑戰性的季度，因為所有業務的幾個外部因素交織在一起，我們看到所有業務的市場波動都是不可預測的，而且規模很大。

While we have opportunities to perform better and you would never hear me say anything other than that, this is the first time I've seen all markets work against us, all at the same time. It's the first time I remember market impacts being greater than those controllables that we have and the opportunity for improvement of them. As we think about moving forward, efficiency in our operations in our company will be the focal point for us. There are some places where we need to make decisions faster and in some cases, better decisions.

雖然我們有機會表現得更好，而且你永遠不會聽到我說除此之外的任何內容，但這是我第一次看到所有市場同時對我們不利。這是我第一次記得市場影響大於我們擁有的那些可控因素以及改進它們的機會。當我們考慮向前邁進時，我們公司的運營效率將成為我們關注的焦點。在某些地方，我們需要更快地做出決策，在某些情況下，需要做出更好的決策。

In some cases, we will need to adjust our business model, and in other cases, the accuracy of our projections has to be better than what we've demonstrated here in Q1. I'd remind you and everyone else that we're not bigger than the market. And in Q1 and over time, markets will do their job, and we simply have to do ours. Q2 will be seasonally softer than Q1, and the back half will be better than the first half. While the back half will be better than the first half, we feel good about our business outlook.

在某些情況下，我們需要調整我們的商業模式，而在其他情況下，我們預測的準確性必須比我們在第一季度展示的更好。我要提醒您和其他所有人，我們並不比市場大。在第一季度及以後，市場會做好自己的工作，而我們只需要做好自己的工作。 Q2會比Q1季節性偏軟，後半段會好於上半年。雖然下半年會好於上半年，但我們對我們的業務前景感到滿意。

For example, we knew the Beef herd is nearing the bottom of the cycle. We knew Pork had herd health issues and that there would be incremental packing capacity coming online, and it did. We did not expect the incremental Beef, Pork and Chicken in the marketplace domestically in Q1, especially in light of the fact that the cost of animals and the cutout or the pricing was declining.

例如，我們知道肉牛群正接近週期的底部。我們知道豬肉有牛群健康問題，並且會有增量包裝能力上線，而且確實如此。我們沒想到第一季度國內市場上的牛肉、豬肉和雞肉會增加，特別是考慮到動物成本和切塊或價格正在下降。

Our Prepared Foods performed as expected, delivering on operating income, we grew share in both dollars and pounds in the quarter. And I would just -- I have to remind everyone else before I get into Chicken and the details that we have a strong diversified portfolio, and we have confidence in our multi-protein strategy that it will deliver growth and shareholder value.

我們的預製食品表現符合預期，實現了營業收入，我們在本季度的美元和英鎊份額均有所增長。而且我只是 - 在我進入雞肉和我們擁有強大的多元化投資組合的細節之前，我必須提醒其他人，我們對我們的多蛋白質戰略充滿信心，它將帶來增長和股東價值。

Now let me go a little deeper as it relates to Chicken, and we perhaps can go even deeper or later. In Chicken, we have a differentiated model. We have the #1 brand in Chicken. We've talked often about the fact that our model doesn't get the highest or lows of the commodity markets. This does not mean we're not impacted. For example, we talked a lot about variable pricing models, we have those. And -- but I would remind you that those pricing models have lags as well. As we started this year in Chicken in particular, we had a good plan. We still like our Chicken business, but there were a lot of moving parts in Q1.

現在讓我更深入一點，因為它與雞肉有關，我們也許可以更深入或更晚。在 Chicken 中，我們有一個差異化的模型。我們擁有雞肉領域的第一品牌。我們經常談論這樣一個事實，即我們的模型無法獲得商品市場的最高價或最低價。這並不意味著我們沒有受到影響。例如，我們談了很多關於可變定價模型的問題，我們有這些模型。而且 - 但我會提醒你，這些定價模型也有滯後。特別是今年我們在 Chicken 開始時，我們有一個很好的計劃。我們仍然喜歡我們的雞肉業務，但第一季度有很多活動部件。

So what happened in Q1? Our volume was up 3% and our harvest pounds were up 15%. This is due to a mix shift from small bird bone in to more of a boneless product, and it was part of our strategy. Our supply plan is dictated by our demand plan. This is a core tenet of our business. We plan for a strong November and December. If you'll remember, for Fresh Chicken, if you remember, we shorted Fresh Chicken in the last 3 years in a significant way, and we had a plan in place this holiday season to not have that happen again.

那麼第一季度發生了什麼？我們的產量增加了 3%，收穫磅數增加了 15%。這是由於從小鳥骨到更多無骨產品的混合轉變，這是我們戰略的一部分。我們的供應計劃由我們的需求計劃決定。這是我們業務的核心宗旨。我們計劃在 11 月和 12 月表現強勁。如果你還記得，對於 Fresh Chicken，如果你還記得的話，我們在過去 3 年中以一種重要的方式做空 Fresh Chicken，並且我們在這個假期制定了一個計劃，以防止這種情況再次發生。

November and December were softer than we expected or planned for in retail Fresh Chicken. This created excess in our retail Fresh Chicken. Because our sales didn't materialize in retail Fresh, this triggered a resale or movement of products. The resale price was much lower than modeled for the original sale. So to help you a little bit, I would say, just to dimensionalize this, that about 2/3 of our miss was market-driven and about 1/3 of the miss was related to labor, yield and spend, some of which was associated with the movement of product because of the miss on Fresh Chicken. The movement of product from 1 location to another impacted labor, yield and created incremental freight costs. We also had some knock-on effects of building inventory as a result of this, inventory above our plan.

11 月和 12 月的零售新鮮雞肉比我們預期或計劃的要疲軟。這導致我們的零售新鮮雞肉過剩。因為我們的銷售沒有在零售 Fresh 中實現，這引發了產品的轉售或移動。轉售價格遠低於原始銷售的模型。因此，為了幫助您一點，我想說，只是為了確定這一點，大約 2/3 的失誤是市場驅動的，大約 1/3 的失誤與勞動力、收益和支出有關，其中一些是與產品的流動有關，因為錯過了 Fresh Chicken。產品從一個地點移動到另一個地點會影響勞動力、產量並產生增量運費。因此，我們也對建立庫存產生了一些連鎖反應，庫存超出了我們的計劃。

And as a reminder, avian influenza impacted our pricing and volume on both paws and chicken leg quarters in the quarter. There was more chicken, beef and pork in the market than anticipated. So it sounds like a lot of excuses there. I get that. So what -- now what, so what are we doing? I'd tell you that we still have a great Chicken business. We still have a good plan. We are cleaning up and have been cleaning up some issues from Q1 that I've talked about earlier. So as we think about from this day -- or since Q1, we have to control the controllables. I would remind you that we are fully staffed, and we continue to invest in a better workplace experience through automation, et cetera. We're growing our business, servicing our customers and becoming the most sought-after place to work and we'll compete with the very best in the Chicken space. So let me pause and get a follow-up question, and we'll go from there.

提醒一下，禽流感影響了我們本季度爪子和雞腿的定價和數量。市場上的雞肉、牛肉和豬肉比預期的要多。所以這聽起來像是有很多藉口。我明白了。那又怎樣——現在又怎樣，那我們在做什麼？我會告訴你，我們仍然有很棒的雞肉生意。我們仍然有一個很好的計劃。我們正在清理，並且一直在清理我之前談到的第一季度的一些問題。因此，正如我們從今天或第一季度開始考慮的那樣，我們必須控制可控因素。我要提醒您的是，我們的人員配備齊全，我們將繼續通過自動化等方式投資於更好的工作場所體驗。我們正在發展我們的業務，為我們的客戶提供服務，並成為最受歡迎的工作場所，我們將與雞肉領域的佼佼者競爭。所以讓我暫停一下並提出一個後續問題，我們將從那裡開始。

Just moving quickly to the Beef segment. You've given us a range of 2% to 4% on the operating margin side now. Prior to that, it was more open-ended just below your long-term guidance. What has become clearer? What is more certain now about the outlook for this year? And what gives you the confidence that it will come in within that range and not below it?

只是快速移動到牛肉部分。您現在在營業利潤率方面給了我們 2% 到 4% 的範圍。在此之前，它在您的長期指導之下更加開放。什麼變得更清楚了？今年的前景現在更確定的是什麼？是什麼讓你有信心它會在這個範圍內而不是低於它？

All right. Thank you. I will -- I'll start out on this, and then I will flip it to Brady for a few comments. We're moving closer to the bottom or to the trough of the Beef cycle. We obviously were surprised at the amount of beef harvested in our Q1. There was a lot more beef on the market than what we had expected particularly in light of increased pricing -- or excuse me, increased cost of cattle and at the same time, a decline in cutout. So that was a bit of a surprise to us. That's a miss for us. But we are moving closer. We know that there are more hoppers being harvested. We know there are more cows being harvested. We know that what those signs are that we are looking for in terms of when the herd would rebuild. And it's going to require a rain or precipitation. It's going to require the rancher to see more forage in hay availability. Those are some of the things you need to look for.

好的。謝謝。我會——我會從這個開始，然後我會把它交給 Brady 徵求一些意見。我們正在接近牛肉週期的底部或谷底。我們顯然對第一季度收穫的牛肉數量感到驚訝。市場上的牛肉比我們預期的要多得多，特別是考慮到價格上漲——或者對不起，牛的成本增加，同時，切肉減少。所以這對我們來說有點意外。這對我們來說是一個錯過。但我們正在靠近。我們知道有更多的漏斗正在收穫。我們知道有更多的奶牛被收割。我們知道，我們正在尋找的這些跡象表明牛群何時會重建。這將需要下雨或降水。這將要求牧場主看到更多可用的干草。這些是您需要尋找的一些東西。

But as we've gotten a quarter closer to answer your question, Alexia, we see a little more clearly than now. We know that the trough is coming, but we wanted to -- the number you see is a conservative number for us and making every effort to make sure that we guide you to where we see Q2 and the balance of the year going.

但是當我們離回答你的問題還有四分之一的時候，亞歷克西婭，我們看得比現在更清楚了。我們知道低谷即將到來，但我們希望 - 你看到的數字對我們來說是一個保守的數字，並儘一切努力確保我們引導你到我們看到的第二季度和今年餘下的時間。

And so Brady, let me see if you want to add anything to that. Welcome, Brady Stewart.

那麼布雷迪，讓我看看你是否想添加任何內容。歡迎，布雷迪·斯圖爾特。

Thank you, Donnie. And certainly, your points relative to cattle availability and the look into the future is spot-on, the drought, lack of affordable hays and forage and higher overall supply chain costs are still driving cattle liquidation in parts of the U.S. As we move out of this cycle of the cattle liquidation and start to see some [herd] replacements into the future, we'll certainly have better visibility to the trough that you mentioned as well, Donnie.

謝謝你，唐尼。當然，你關於牛的可用性和對未來的看法是正確的，乾旱、缺乏負擔得起的干草和草料以及更高的整體供應鏈成本仍在推動美國部分地區的牛清算。牛群清算的這個週期，並開始看到一些 [牛群] 替代品進入未來，我們當然也會更好地了解你提到的低谷，Donnie。

Why I'm optimistic about the future is the team has worked diligently and effectively to strategically align ourselves with suppliers to ensure we have the supply required relative to higher grading cattle. We feel good about global demand, specifically on higher-grading beef products from a macro standpoint. We're seeing some appreciation in drop credit values, specifically on specialty products, including fats and oils. And while it is hard to pinpoint the exact bottom based on the current drought and feedstock conditions, we are seeing some moderation and some signs of optimism relative to the drought conditions that we'll keep an eye on moving into the future.

我對未來持樂觀態度的原因是該團隊勤奮有效地工作，在戰略上與供應商保持一致，以確保我們擁有與更高等級牛相關的所需供應。我們對全球需求感到滿意，特別是從宏觀角度來看更高級的牛肉產品。我們看到信用價值有所下降，特別是在特種產品上，包括脂肪和油。雖然很難根據當前的干旱和原料條件確定確切的底部，但我們看到了一些相對於乾旱條件的緩和和樂觀跡象，我們將密切關注未來的發展。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, our next question today comes from Ken Goldman at JPMorgan.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I wanted to ask a couple of questions. First, Donnie, you made a change at the top in the Chicken segment. Can you outline a little bit which changes are most important as we think about the next few years that you'd like to see and maybe why the change was made now?

我想問幾個問題。首先，唐尼，你在雞肉部分的頂部進行了更改。您能否概述一下在我們考慮未來幾年您希望看到的變化時哪些變化最重要，也許為什麼現在進行變化？

Sure, Ken. I'd be happy to -- David Bray was leading our Poultry business. And I talked about in Q1 that we had some issues as it related to markets and the amount of protein on the market. The change that we made is a result of some of the controllables that I think we made some good decisions. I'd like to have seen those decisions faster and perhaps some better quality of decisions and there were things in Q1 as it relates to Chicken that we could have done better, and I made the change. I went out immediately and recruited Wes Morris, who -- Wes has had -- has run many parts of our Chicken business. He's led our Prepared Foods business, and he's also led our case-ready Beef and Pork business. And they had an opportunity to pick up a great talent with many, many years of experience and know-how in this business, and we made the change.

當然，肯。我很高興 - David Bray 領導我們的家禽業務。我在第一季度談到我們遇到了一些問題，因為它與市場和市場上的蛋白質數量有關。我們所做的改變是一些可控因素的結果，我認為我們做出了一些好的決定。我希望更快地看到這些決策，也許還有一些更好的決策質量，並且在第一季度有一些與 Chicken 相關的事情我們可以做得更好，我做出了改變。我立即出去招募了 Wes Morris，他——Wes 曾經——負責過我們雞肉業務的許多部分。他領導了我們的預製食品業務，還領導了我們的現成牛肉和豬肉業務。他們有機會挑選一位在這項業務中擁有多年經驗和專業知識的優秀人才，我們做出了改變。

In terms of the overall organization, Shane Miller leaving our Pork -- or excuse me, our Beef and Pork business, our Fresh Meats business, the relocation got Shane -- Shane is still actively engaged in the company. He and Brady are working through a transition. And so we -- when Shane decided he could not move for reasons, by the way, Shane is still trying to figure out how he can get here and be a part of it. There are some personal things that he's got to deal with, but we were fortunate to pick up Brady Stewart, who is the COO of another company, and he's well versed in the Pork business and the Packaged Meats business and could do a number of roles for us going forward. We're very fortunate to be able to pick up both Wes and Brady in our organization, and we look for great things from them. But we've got a lot of upside and runway in the organization because of them.

就整體組織而言，Shane Miller 離開了我們的豬肉——或者對不起，我們的牛肉和豬肉業務，我們的鮮肉業務，Shane 搬遷了——Shane 仍然積極參與公司。他和布雷迪正在努力過渡。所以我們 - 當 Shane 決定他不能因為某些原因搬家時，順便說一句，Shane 仍在努力弄清楚他如何才能到達這裡並成為其中的一部分。他有一些個人事務需要處理，但我們很幸運能找到另一家公司的首席運營官 Brady Stewart，他精通豬肉業務和包裝肉類業務，可以擔任許多職務為我們前進。我們很幸運能夠在我們的組織中挑選韋斯和布雷迪，我們期待從他們身上獲得偉大的東西。但由於他們，我們在組織中有很多優勢和跑道。

Recently, we announced Amy Tu leading our International business, along with a few other functions. But we're excited about Amy and what she's doing and her passion for the International market and her passion for growing Tyson in international markets. And I feel really good about where we are from an international perspective. I feel really good about where we are from a Chicken perspective and the leadership there. I feel really good about where we are from a Beef and Pork perspective.

最近，我們宣布 Amy Tu 領導我們的國際業務，以及其他一些職能。但我們對艾米和她正在做的事情以及她對國際市場的熱情以及她對在國際市場上發展泰森食品的熱情感到興奮。從國際角度來看，我對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。從 Chicken 的角度和那裡的領導層來看，我對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。從牛肉和豬肉的角度來看，我對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。

If you click down one level as it relates to Beef. That team is largely intact moving here, and some have, in fact, already moved here. So Stewart, you saw the numbers in Prepared Foods. Stewart has done a really nice job of challenging the business and upgrading pork raw material into this branded portfolio that we have. And then finally, today -- actually today, Melanie Boulden is joining us. And so why Melanie and why a Chief Growth Officer, it was all in an effort to try to get a center of excellence here in Springdale, Arkansas around branding, marketing, communication and innovation. And Melanie has got great experience in consumer packaged goods and most recently, Chief Marketing Officer in a food and beverage company. So I'll pause and take a breath right there, Ken, and wait for a follow-up.

如果您單擊與牛肉相關的一級。那個團隊基本上完好無損地搬到了這裡，事實上，有些人已經搬到了這裡。所以斯圖爾特，你看到了預製食品中的數字。斯圖爾特在挑戰業務並將豬肉原料升級到我們擁有的這個品牌組合方面做得非常好。最後，今天——實際上是今天，Melanie Boulden 加入了我們。因此，為什麼 Melanie 和首席增長官，都是為了在阿肯色州斯普林代爾建立一個圍繞品牌、營銷、傳播和創新的卓越中心。 Melanie 在包裝消費品方面擁有豐富的經驗，最近擔任一家食品和飲料公司的首席營銷官。所以我會在那裡停下來喘口氣，肯，等待後續行動。

No, no, that's helpful. I guess as my quick follow-up, it's obviously not the most -- the largest segment you have, but since you mentioned International, it's never made money. And I'm just curious, I'm not trying to be critical of it because, obviously, it's -- but in the long run, it's going to be a business that should be very profitable for you and others, but what's the strategy? Donnie, you've taken a much stronger tack toward, I think, profitability and margins and just efficiency than perhaps your predecessors have. Between you and Amy, what is the frac that we should expect that margin to be going on ahead?

不不不，這很有用。我想作為我的快速跟進，它顯然不是最多 - 你擁有的最大部分，但自從你提到國際以來，它從來沒有賺錢。我只是好奇，我並不是要批評它，因為很明顯，它是——但從長遠來看，這將是一項對你和其他人來說應該非常有利可圖的業務，但戰略是什麼？ Donnie，我認為，與您的前任相比，您在盈利能力、利潤率和效率方面採取了更強硬的策略。在你和艾米之間，我們應該期望未來的利潤率是多少？

Thanks, Ken. We do appreciate the interest in our International business. I would tell you that we've invested a great deal in plants. And with COVID over the last year, particularly in the foodservice channel, we've had some headwinds with that, those have lessened, and we're in a sweet spot there in terms of our alignment with global customers, many of which are in the foodservice channel. But we also have launched a branded portfolio across Thailand, Malaysia and China, and we feel good about that. It's -- they're doing -- the brands are doing really, really well and provides not only innovation outside the U.S., and we also take that innovation and we add that and we bring some of those things back to the U.S.

謝謝，肯。我們非常感謝您對我們國際業務的興趣。我會告訴你，我們在植物方面投入了大量資金。在過去的一年中，由於 COVID，特別是在餐飲服務渠道，我們遇到了一些不利因素，這些不利因素已經減輕，而且我們在與全球客戶保持一致方面處於最佳位置，其中許多客戶在餐飲服務頻道。但我們還在泰國、馬來西亞和中國推出了品牌組合，我們對此感到滿意。它——他們正在做——這些品牌做得非常非常好，不僅在美國以外提供創新，我們也採用了這種創新，我們補充說，我們將其中一些東西帶回美國。

But we feel good about it. It's been an investment. It's been a long time coming, but I think you will see here in '23, our International business delivered some really nice results for in the way of operating income. Amy, anything you would like to add to that?

但我們對此感覺很好。這是一項投資。已經等了很長時間了，但我想你會在 23 年在這裡看到，我們的國際業務在營業收入方面取得了一些非常好的結果。艾米，你想補充什麼嗎？

Ken, thank you for the question and pointing out profitability, our nonprofit facility over the last few years. I think Donnie is absolutely right. This is our growth strategy. We've talked about in the past where global population growth will happen and will happen outside the United States, and so we're taking our existing footprint right now. We're putting in place the kind of execution fundamentals that we need to have. And then we're also discussing with our other segments, the opportunities that lie before us, given the raw materials that we have here in the United States.

肯，感謝您提出問題並指出我們過去幾年的非營利機構的盈利能力。我認為唐尼是完全正確的。這是我們的增長戰略。我們過去曾討論過全球人口增長將發生在美國以外的地方，因此我們現在正在探索現有的足跡。我們正在落實我們需要的那種執行基礎。然後我們也在與我們的其他部門討論，考慮到我們在美國這裡擁有的原材料，擺在我們面前的機會。

But Donnie just put forward exactly what we have outside the United States with our strong brands. We are launching smart factories. We are able to do things more quickly outside the United States which will give us ultimately a benefit for the entire company. So more to come, but we are very excited about what we see right now.

但唐尼只是提出了我們在美國以外擁有的強大品牌。我們正在推出智能工廠。我們能夠在美國以外更快地做事，這最終將使我們整個公司受益。所以還有更多，但我們對我們現在看到的感到非常興奮。

Ken, also, this is John. And I think it's just worth pointing out. The business has been profitable over the last few years. And on an EBITDA basis, we look at something in the high single digits for that. So I think there's financial performance to support the continued investment there, but at the right time.

肯，還有，這是約翰。我認為這值得指出。該業務在過去幾年中一直盈利。在 EBITDA 的基礎上，我們看到了高個位數的東西。所以我認為有財務業績來支持那裡的持續投資，但在正確的時間。

Our next question today comes from Ben Bienvenu with Stephens.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Ben Bienvenu 和 Stephens。

I want to ask a follow-up on Chicken. Donnie, I think you characterized the underperformance in the first quarter as 2/3 of the market, 1/3 Tyson-specific as you look forward, understanding that your view is, and I think we would agree that recovery is underway in kind of commodity chicken fundamentals, what is the critical path from an internal standpoint to improve that business from here? I think last year, the focus was hatchability, that was a big opportunity around growing capacity utilization. What are the focus points as we move through fiscal '23?

我想問一個關於Chicken的後續問題。唐尼，我認為你將第一季度的表現不佳描述為市場的 2/3，1/3 是泰森特有的，正如你所期待的那樣，理解你的觀點，我認為我們會同意復甦正在進行中商品雞基本面，從內部角度來看，從這裡改善業務的關鍵路徑是什麼？我認為去年的重點是孵化率，這是提高產能利用率的一個重要機會。我們在 23 財年期間的重點是什麼？

Thanks, Ben. I will make a few remarks, and then I'll pass it to Wes for a little more detail. As I said in my opening comments to -- also in the first question, we still feel really good about our Chicken business. We think we have a good plan. Yes, we got hitting the mouth in Q1 because of all the protein on the market in Q1. And our tray pack, our Fresh Chicken business did materialize as we had expected. And so we kind of created -- we created our own issue with that because of what happened in the market.

謝謝，本。我將發表一些評論，然後將其傳遞給 Wes 以了解更多細節。正如我在第一個問題的開場評論中所說的那樣，我們仍然對我們的雞肉業務感到非常滿意。我們認為我們有一個很好的計劃。是的，由於第一季度市場上的所有蛋白質，我們在第一季度受到了打擊。而我們的托盤包裝，我們的新鮮雞肉業務確實如我們預期的那樣實現了。因此，我們有點創造了——由於市場上發生的事情，我們創造了自己的問題。

But I would tell you, we still have tremendous opportunity and upside as we execute this business. And it's nothing exciting, but it's the fundamentals of labor and yield and spend and just maintaining or growing this business to fill up our capacity and service the needs that we have. And I would remind you that you and everyone else that we place chickens based on what our demand plan looks like. It's in service of our demand plan.

但我會告訴你，在我們執行這項業務時，我們仍然有巨大的機會和優勢。這沒什麼令人興奮的，但它是勞動力、產量和支出的基礎，只是維持或發展這項業務以填補我們的能力並滿足我們的需求。我會提醒你，你和其他人，我們根據我們的需求計劃來放置雞。它服務於我們的需求計劃。

So as we go back and look at what happened in Q1 and think about the future, in Q1 strategically, the only thing that went awry was the fact that the demand didn't materialize in the place at retail in which we thought it would. And so that triggered a number of other inefficient moves and activities. But again, we think Q1, you've seen the numbers, Q2 is seasonally softer. But as we start getting towards the -- to that Q3 time period, we feel good about it, and we don't have something that's broken here that like a hatch issue and a genetics issue. The time horizon for fixing this is much shorter than many of those things. Wes, anything you want to add to that?

因此，當我們回顧第一季度發生的事情並思考未來時，從戰略上講，在第一季度，唯一出現問題的是需求沒有在我們認為會出現的零售領域實現。因此，這引發了許多其他低效的舉措和活動。但同樣，我們認為第一季度，你已經看到了這些數字，第二季度季節性疲軟。但是當我們開始接近 - 到那個第三季度的時間段時，我們對此感覺很好，而且我們這裡沒有像孵化問題和遺傳問題這樣的問題。解決這個問題的時間範圍比其中許多事情要短得多。 Wes，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. Ben, and thanks for the opportunity. First, let me say how excited I am to be a part of Tyson Foods. This is a great Chicken company. It's got great people, great brands, great customers. And I want to echo what Donnie said around, we did a lot of foundational work and executed it very well. We said that we would improve our capacity utilization. We would staff our plants and they're at a record staffing level. We've added automation and got some opportunities as we start up that, that negatively impacted our yield in Q1.

是的。本，謝謝你給我這個機會。首先，讓我說一下我對成為泰森食品的一員感到多麼興奮。這是一家很棒的雞肉公司。它擁有優秀的人才、優秀的品牌和優秀的客戶。我想重複 Donnie 所說的話，我們做了很多基礎工作並且執行得很好。我們說我們會提高我們的產能利用率。我們會為我們的工廠配備人員，他們的人員配備水平創歷史新高。我們增加了自動化並在啟動時獲得了一些機會，這對我們第一季度的收益率產生了負面影響。

And then we said we'd rebuild inventory post-COVID to better service our customers and our order fill rate indicates that we did that well. And so from a live perspective, we performed very well. The volatility of our hatch numbers are behind us, and we did exactly what we said we were going to do on the live production side. And so that allows us to focus more of our energy on standing up that automation to its expected results, and to make sure we're still meeting the needs of the consumer. But the one thing that's obvious we can do better is understanding the consumer shifts in our business and making sure we got the right amount of birds in the right place at the right time.

然後我們說我們將在 COVID 後重建庫存以更好地為我們的客戶服務，我們的訂單完成率表明我們做得很好。所以從現場的角度來看，我們表現得非常好。我們孵化數量的波動已經過去，我們完全按照我們所說的在現場製作方面去做。因此，這使我們能夠將更多的精力集中在使自動化達到預期結果上，並確保我們仍在滿足消費者的需求。但有一點很明顯，我們可以做得更好，那就是了解消費者在我們業務中的變化，並確保我們在正確的時間、正確的地點獲得正確數量的鳥類。

Okay. Very good. My second question is on the Prepared Foods business, a very strong start to the year. The guidance is unchanged. I know it's early in the year, but implied in the guidance being unchanged is a moderation in the operating margin. So what is it that we would need to see for that to happen? How much of that is it's early in the year and you want to get a little bit more of the fiscal year under your belt to adjust that guidance versus explicit view that things soften from here?

好的。非常好。我的第二個問題是關於預製食品業務，今年開局非常強勁。指引不變。我知道現在是今年年初，但指引不變意味著營業利潤率有所下降。那麼，要實現這一點，我們需要看到什麼？其中有多少是在今年年初，你希望在本財年有更多的時間來調整該指導，而不是明確認為事情會從這裡開始軟化？

So let me make a comment, and then I'll flip it over to Stewart. In terms of Prepared, we did deliver what we said we would in Q1. We feel good about that on a go-forward basis with these iconic billion-dollar-plus brands that we have, we feel good about that. Stewart said in the last quarter that retail was really, really good, and we had some work to do as it relates to the foodservice side. And of course, we're still not back to pre-COVID levels in the foodservice channel. And so there's some upside for that opportunities when that happens, but we need more demand there. I would tell you, even in all of that, we continue to grow our share in the foodservice, Prepared and Poultry business. But Stewart, why don't you add some color to this?

所以讓我發表評論，然後我會把它交給斯圖爾特。就 Prepared 而言，我們確實實現了我們在第一季度承諾的目標。我們對這些擁有十億美元以上標誌性品牌的未來感到滿意，我們對此感到滿意。斯圖爾特在上個季度表示，零售業真的非常好，我們在餐飲服務方面還有一些工作要做。當然，我們的餐飲服務渠道還沒有回到 COVID 之前的水平。因此，當這種情況發生時，這種機會會有一些好處，但我們需要更多的需求。我會告訴你，即使在所有這些情況下，我們仍在繼續擴大我們在餐飲服務、預製食品和家禽業務中的份額。但是斯圖爾特，你為什麼不為此添加一些顏色呢？

Yes. Thanks for that, Donnie. Yes. Look, foodservice, as I said last quarter, is operating from a very, very strong platform. And investors should expect to see that over the medium term, that, that business continues to grow and the profitability improves.

是的。謝謝你，唐尼。是的。看，正如我上個季度所說，餐飲服務是在一個非常非常強大的平台上運營的。投資者應該期望看到，從中期來看，該業務將繼續增長，盈利能力將提高。

In the short run, we've got a job to do on foodservice, and I believe we're making progress there as I look at the pipeline that's developing, very strong performance on retail, but acknowledge that in the first quarter, some of that is seasonal as you look at some of the Sausage Breakfast, Sausage products that we have, and we're taking some of that benefit. I feel good about the guidance we've given for the year. There may be a little bit of variability in some of the quarters. But I'm really standing on the fact that this is a solid platform that we can continue to see go from strength to strength.

從短期來看，我們在餐飲服務方面有工作要做，我相信我們正在取得進展，因為我看到正在開發的管道，零售方面的表現非常強勁，但承認在第一季度，一些當您查看一些香腸早餐和我們擁有的香腸產品時，這是季節性的，我們正在利用其中的一些好處。我對我們今年給出的指導感到滿意。某些季度可能會有一些變化。但我確實相信這是一個堅實的平台，我們可以繼續看到它不斷壯大。

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。我們今天的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

So I guess coming back to Chicken a little bit more deeply. I guess I'm trying to just kind of square kind of the point on market, kind of demand dynamics were a bit responsible for pretty unfavorable mix. And Donnie, you talked about your sales volumes are ticking up, I think, 2.7%, but harvest up 15%. So clearly, and you talked about too much pork meat in the market, if I think about your own harvest levels of 15%, that would represent a pretty disproportionate amount of the increase in poultry production in the industry in the fourth quarter.

所以我想更深入地回到 Chicken 上。我想我只是想對市場上的觀點進行某種程度的探討，某種需求動態是造成非常不利的組合的原因。唐尼，你談到你的銷量正在上升，我認為是 2.7%，但收穫了 15%。很明顯，你談到市場上豬肉過多，如果我考慮你自己 15% 的收穫水平，那將代表第四季度該行業家禽產量增長的相當不成比例的數量。

And so I guess, I'm just trying to get a sense of when you say market was the source of weakness, is it just pricing? Is it mix? Or is it just -- look, we saw the Big Bird cutout be down, commodity market pricing is bad? Or is it just demand in your highest value channel or higher value channel in retail tray pack and you had to put that -- sell that meat into the Big Bird market at a discount at a lower value?

所以我想，我只是想了解您何時說市場是疲軟的根源，這只是定價嗎？是混合嗎？或者它只是 - 看，我們看到 Big Bird 切口下降，商品市場定價不好？或者它只是在零售托盤包裝中的最高價值渠道或更高價值渠道中的需求，你必須把它 - 以較低的價格以折扣價將肉賣到 Big Bird 市場？

Let me make a few comments, and then I'll let Wes add some color to this. The miss for us was clearly in our Fresh Chicken, our tray pack chicken at retail. That was where we stumbled. The demand for our branded retail products was very good, demand for our foodservice chicken products were all very good. The thing that has exacerbated this was the amount of overall protein in the marketplace in Q1, be pork and chicken.

讓我發表一些評論，然後我會讓 Wes 添加一些顏色。我們的失誤顯然是我們的新鮮雞肉，我們零售的托盤包裝雞肉。那是我們絆倒的地方。對我們的品牌零售產品的需求非常好，對我們的餐飲雞肉產品的需求都非常好。加劇這種情況的是第一季度市場上的總蛋白質含量，即豬肉和雞肉。

While our harvest pounds were up 15%. Remember that we are converting all those pounds into a boneless form, right? That's different. That's a mix shift and a strategy change as we get out of some of the more small bird, whole body APs-type products. We talked about that last quarter. We moved into a boneless mix in that area, and we've got more to come as it relates to that. But Wes, why don't you cover some of the details?

而我們收穫的磅數增加了 15%。請記住，我們正在將所有這些磅數轉換成無骨形式，對嗎？那不一樣。這是一個混合轉變和戰略變化，因為我們擺脫了一些更小的鳥類、全身 AP 類產品。我們在上個季度談到了這一點。我們在那個領域進入了一個無骨的混合體，而且我們還有更多與此相關的東西。但是韋斯，你為什麼不介紹一些細節呢？

Yes, Adam, thanks for the question. Like I said before, we executed our live plan very well and did exactly what we said we were going to do. We did have a strategic mix change and less bones. And then one of the other drivers was the impact of our sales of paws, 2% to 2.5% of a lot of Chicken depending on what size. Rebuilding our safety stock inventory and then the seasonal increase in inventory to supply wings to the marketplace.

是的，亞當，謝謝你的提問。就像我之前說的，我們很好地執行了現場計劃，並且完全按照我們說的去做。我們確實進行了戰略性的組合變化和更少的骨頭。然後其他驅動因素之一是我們的爪子銷售的影響，根據大小，佔大量雞肉的 2% 到 2.5%。重建我們的安全庫存，然後季節性增加庫存以向市場供應翅膀。

But Adam, the way I'd ask you to think about it is at a macro level, we did a very good job, and we absolutely had the right number of chickens. We simply had them in the wrong place based on the post-COVID changes. And so we had more than we needed in our Fresh Chicken business and came up short in some other areas.

但是亞當，我要求你從宏觀層面考慮，我們做得很好，而且我們的雞數量絕對正確。根據 COVID 後的變化，我們只是將它們放在了錯誤的位置。因此，我們的新鮮雞肉業務超出了我們的需要，但在其他一些領域卻出現了短缺。

Okay. And then I guess, this goes to both the performance in the quarter and the change in outlook for the balance of the year, just you guys reported in mid-November, nearly halfway through the quarter at that point. I just -- help me understand kind of where the information disconnect was between live production operations and financial planning that there was this big of a disconnect in the period? And in terms of the magnitude of the guided margin change for the rest of the year, is that just continued unfavorable mix? Is that cost? Is that contracting and pricing? I'm just trying to make sure I understand the moving pieces on the magnitude of that margin change relative to 3 months ago.

好的。然後我想，這既涉及到本季度的表現，也涉及到今年餘下時間的前景變化，你們在 11 月中旬報告的，那時已經接近本季度的一半了。我只是 - 幫助我了解現場製作運營和財務計劃之間的信息脫節是什麼地方，在此期間存在如此大的脫節？就今年剩餘時間的指導利潤率變化幅度而言，這是否只是持續的不利組合？那是成本嗎？那是合同和定價嗎？我只是想確保我了解相對於 3 個月前的利潤率變化幅度的變化。

Sure, Adam. So I said earlier that as a way of a reminder that we start with a demand plan and that over the past 3 years, we have not been able to service the demand in Fresh Chicken at retail. We were trying to correct that at this point. And every demand signal we had said that the demand was going to materialize, and we place chickens accordingly.

當然，亞當。所以我之前說過，作為一種提醒，我們從需求計劃開始，在過去的 3 年裡，我們無法滿足零售新鮮雞肉的需求。我們正試圖在這一點上糾正這一點。每一個需求信號我們都說過需求將會實現，我們相應地放置雞。

Remember, we placed those chickens for that November time frame back in August. And so we were going -- I understand your point about we're in November and we're having the last earnings call. A lot of things from that day forward, the demand didn't show up in Fresh Chicken. A lot of the other things work exactly the way we plan for them. And -- but that [trickery], if you think about Fresh Chicken, you typically put that product in a tray and then before you have the order, and when the order doesn't show up, then you have to take it out of the tray or sell it in the tray at a discounted or in a distressed fashion. We had a lot of that in our Q1, and we've cleaned up that. We're still trying to get ourselves going back again. Q2 is going to be seasonally softer, variable pricing models and the lag associated with that. I mean we'll get caught up with that. The back half of the year, we feel good about where we're going to be relative to that. And so Wes, that's, I think, the first question. What about the second one?

請記住，我們在 8 月將 11 月的時間框架內的雞放在一起。所以我們要去 - 我理解你關於我們在 11 月的觀點，我們正在進行最後一次財報電話會議。從那天起，很多事情都沒有出現在 Fresh Chicken 中。許多其他事情完全按照我們為它們計劃的方式工作。而且——但是那個[詭計]，如果你想到新鮮雞肉，你通常會把產品放在托盤裡，然後在你收到訂單之前，當訂單沒有出現時，你必須把它從托盤或以折扣價或仿舊方式在托盤中出售。我們在第一季度有很多這樣的東西，我們已經清理乾淨了。我們仍在努力讓自己再次回歸。第二季度將出現季節性疲軟、可變定價模型以及與之相關的滯後。我的意思是我們會趕上那個。今年下半年，我們對與此相關的情況感覺良好。 Wes，我認為這是第一個問題。第二個呢？

Yes. Optimistic about the path forward. The USDA is projecting Q2 numbers, around 2%, which is a lot less Chicken availability than the $77 million increase we saw in Q1. Then when you couple that with 4% to 5% less cattle, you should have an overall protein per capita that is much smaller than what we saw in Q1. We're already seeing some changes in the marketplace. Since the end of the quarter, we've seen boneless go up a quarter. Wings are up around $0.14, $0.15. And so optimistic going forward that the Chicken values all correct. We've talked about variable pricing on a lot of these different calls. And the good news is it's much, much faster than the historical 1-year fixed price agreements. But unfortunately, it still has a short-term lag as these markets correct, it will take a minute to hit the self sheet.

是的。對前進的道路持樂觀態度。美國農業部預計第二季度的數字約為 2%，這比我們在第一季度看到的 7700 萬美元的增長要少得多。然後，當你將其與減少 4% 到 5% 的牛結合起來時，你的人均蛋白質總量應該比我們在第一季度看到的要少得多。我們已經看到市場發生了一些變化。自本季度末以來，我們已經看到無骨食品上漲了一個季度。翅膀上漲了 0.14 美元、0.15 美元左右。如此樂觀地向前發展，以至於小雞的價值觀都是正確的。我們已經討論了很多這些不同電話的可變定價。好消息是它比歷史上的 1 年期固定價格協議要快得多。但不幸的是，隨著這些市場的調整，它仍然存在短期滯後，需要一分鐘才能觸及自我表。

Adam, this is John, too. I think there's just a couple of other things that we've said that are worth reemphasizing. One is, and I think you asked a good question about, hey, what was going on, you talked to this last time in November. I think in addition to all the poultry dynamics that Donnie and Wes described here, I think there's still difference of outlook as it relates to Beef availability, which I think was maybe a little bit of a surprise. And then I think as it relates to the outlook for the year, if you just look at kind of what the public data says, I think it's something like 25% to 30% more chicken meat in the freezer. And so our plans account for working through that, but it does take some time to work through that. And there are timing differentials between how the market recovers and where our pricing recovers.

亞當，這也是約翰。我認為我們已經說過的其他一些事情值得再次強調。一個是，我認為你問了一個很好的問題，嘿，發生了什麼事，你在 11 月最後一次談過這個問題。我認為除了 Donnie 和 Wes 在這裡描述的所有家禽動態之外，我認為與牛肉供應相關的前景仍然存在差異，我認為這可能有點令人驚訝。然後我認為這與今年的前景有關，如果你只看公開數據所說的，我認為冰箱裡的雞肉會增加 25% 到 30%。因此，我們的計劃考慮了解決這個問題，但確實需要一些時間來解決這個問題。市場復甦的方式和我們定價的複蘇地點之間存在時間差異。

So all of that influences just the shape of the year for us. And I think we've also said this, but just to make sure the listeners on the call get it today, Q2 will be softer for us than Q1. And we expect to see a recovery in what is our Q3 and Q4, the second part of our fiscal year.

因此，所有這些都會影響我們今年的情況。而且我認為我們也說過這一點，但只是為了確保電話中的聽眾今天能明白，Q2 對我們來說會比 Q1 更柔和。我們預計我們的第三季度和第四季度會出現復甦，這是我們財政年度的第二部分。

And our next question today comes from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Robert Moskow。

I guess the follow-up is it sounds like there's no change to your production plan for Chicken. I think you had a plan of 42 million head per week. Is that still the same? And I don't know, like do you still have to harvest 15% more chicken now in order to satisfy the demand that you have 3 months from now? Is it -- are you still at 15% increase in production?

我想接下來的內容是，聽起來您的 Chicken 生產計劃沒有任何變化。我想你的計劃是每週 4200 萬頭。那還是一樣嗎？而且我不知道，比如你現在還需要多收穫 15% 的雞肉才能滿足 3 個月後的需求嗎？是——你的產量仍然增加 15% 嗎？

So let me make sure I separate for you. Great question, by the way. One is head and one is weight. The 15% is weight. The head is different. We have talked in terms of -- in fiscal '23 -- by the end of fiscal '23, we would be at about 42 million head a week, and that's still the plan. I would also tell you that the plan is -- I mean, the demand is there to support 42 million chickens a week. And if that changes, we'll change. But that's what we see right now as we look at the demand picture.

所以讓我確保我為你分開。順便說一句，好問題。一個是頭部，一個是體重。 15%是重量。頭是不同的。我們已經談到——在 23 財年——到 23 財年結束時，我們每週的出欄量將達到 4200 萬頭左右，這仍然是計劃。我還要告訴你，該計劃是——我的意思是，每週需要養活 4200 萬隻雞。如果這種情況發生變化，我們就會改變。但這就是我們現在看到的需求圖。

The other thing that I think that -- and I'll just say it as we talked about the Beef cycle and the Pork cycle and herd health and so forth, I think it's -- if you look at what happened in Q1, I think every chicken company in America, read the headlines around there's going to be less beef, less pork, and the natural belief is that chicken will fill that gap. But the problem with all that is there wasn't a gap in beef and pork in Q1. And so I think you're seeing even now based on the numbers Wes quoted earlier, you're seeing adjustments in the marketplace relative to that. And -- but we will always balance our supply with what our demand needs are -- and I just -- it's just a fundamental tenet of how we operate this business and have operated for many years.

我認為的另一件事——當我們談到牛肉週期、豬肉週期和牛群健康等等時，我會說——如果你看看第一季度發生的事情，我想美國的每家雞肉公司，閱讀周圍的頭條新聞，牛肉和豬肉將減少，人們自然而然地相信雞肉將填補這一空白。但問題是第一季度牛肉和豬肉沒有差距。因此，我認為即使是現在，根據 Wes 之前引用的數字，您也看到了市場相對於此的調整。而且 - 但我們將始終平衡我們的供應與我們的需求需求 - 我只是 - 這只是我們如何經營這項業務並經營多年的基本原則。

Okay. I guess the follow-up is, I've gotten questions from investors asking whether this is an indication of much weaker demand from consumers. Would you describe it that way? Or is it really oversupply that's been the issue? And then in the back half of your fiscal year, you think that, that's what's going to correct? It's not really demand needs to get better, it's that the supply needs to normalize?

好的。我想後續是，投資者問我這是否表明消費者需求疲軟。你會這樣形容嗎？還是真的是供過於求才是問題所在？然後在你財政年度的後半段，你認為，這將是正確的？真的不是需求需要好轉，而是供應需要正常化？

I think you are spot on relative to that. And you're -- I think you're already seeing adjustments in terms of the supply plan. I would tell you, and I don't want to mislead you or anyone else on this. There's some -- there's unusual erratic [attitude] to describe a behavior as it relates between channel swapping and even parts of the store and how -- what's going on there. Swapping between proteins, all the normal things that you would know from all your years of covering this protein sector. They're all in play.

我認為您相對於此而言是正確的。而且你 - 我認為你已經看到供應計劃方面的調整。我會告訴你，我不想在這件事上誤導你或其他任何人。有一些 - 不尋常的不穩定 [態度] 來描述一種行為，因為它與渠道交換甚至商店的某些部分以及如何 - 那裡發生了什麼有關。在蛋白質之間進行交換，這是您多年來報導該蛋白質領域所了解的所有正常事物。他們都在玩。

But I think this is -- I think in Q1, this was a supply issue first and foremost. Secondly, there was some shifting in what part of the store and what products were purchased.

但我認為這是 - 我認為在第一季度，這首先是一個供應問題。其次，商店的哪個部分和購買的產品有一些變化。

And our next question today comes from Ben Theurer with Barclays.

我們今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Just wanted to dig a little bit into if you could explain in more detail what happened on the derivatives in both cases, chicken and pork. And if there's something else outstanding that might go wrong going forward and how you're planning on trying to not run into this? Because I think you said on pork, without the derivatives, it would have been positive, but then obviously, because of this it went negative, so just to understand a little bit of that dynamic. That would be my first question.

只是想深入了解一下，您是否可以更詳細地解釋在這兩種情況下，雞肉和豬肉的衍生品發生了什麼。如果還有其他突出的問題可能會在未來出現問題，您打算如何避免遇到這個問題？因為我認為你對豬肉說，如果沒有衍生品，它本來是積極的，但很明顯，因此它變成了消極的，所以只是想了解一點這種動態。那將是我的第一個問題。

Ben, this is John. I think maybe just a couple of comments headlining on kind of how we're using hedging and derivatives as it relates to a risk management kind of overarching strategy. Generally speaking, what you would expect from us is we kind of have coverage in the near term, we coordinated with what our sales picture looks like with customers. And we really use it as a margin management tool more than any type of speculative tool. And so I think that just emphasizing that last point, we would not project any -- there's no outside best sitting out there in terms of what the markets are going to be doing. We kind of keep things in close and use it more from a margin management standpoint.

本，這是約翰。我認為可能只是一些評論，標題是我們如何使用對沖和衍生品，因為它與風險管理類型的總體策略相關。一般來說，您對我們的期望是我們在短期內有所覆蓋，我們與客戶的銷售情況進行了協調。我們確實將其用作保證金管理工具，而不是任何類型的投機工具。因此，我認為只是強調最後一點，我們不會做出任何預測——就市場將要做什麼而言，沒有外部最佳選擇。從保證金管理的角度來看，我們有點保持密切聯繫並更多地使用它。

Okay. And then just from a -- like general within Prepared Foods, I mean, obviously, you had a very good quarter, both pricing still nicely up, but at the same time, volume was actually up. Can you help us understand how much of that volume was just recovery in some of the foodservice thing as you're saying, you still need to catch up here on the volume to get to pre-pandemic levels? And are you seeing any sort of elasticities or any headwinds on some consumers becoming a little more sensible to the price increases, just to understand the volume impact within it as it was still positive?

好的。然後就像預製食品中的一般一樣，我的意思是，很明顯，你有一個非常好的季度，兩個定價仍然很好，但與此同時，銷量實際上上升了。您能否幫助我們了解您所說的某些餐飲服務中有多少剛剛恢復，您仍然需要趕上這裡的數量才能達到大流行前的水平？你是否看到一些消費者對價格上漲變得更加敏感，只是為了了解其中的數量影響，因為它仍然是積極的？

Yes. Sure. Well, Stewart here. I'll just pick that up. So first of all, look, like I said earlier, we have a very, very powerful platform here, both on the retail side and on the foodservice side. The increase in volume was not driven by foodservice. Foodservice for me is still a place where there's a lot of work to be done, a good platform, but opportunity to fill some plants to sell harder against volume that we lost during COVID. This was driven by the strength of retail, and what was really impressive in the quarter was the ability of our brands to gain price, to offset some inflation and also to gain ground with consumers.

是的。當然。好吧，這裡是斯圖爾特。我會把它撿起來。所以首先，就像我之前說的，我們在這裡有一個非常非常強大的平台，無論是在零售方面還是在餐飲服務方面。數量的增加不是由餐飲服務推動的。對我來說，餐飲服務仍然是一個有很多工作要做的地方，一個很好的平台，但有機會填補一些工廠，以增加我們在 COVID 期間損失的銷量。這是由零售業的實力推動的，本季度真正令人印象深刻的是我們品牌獲得價格、抵消部分通貨膨脹以及贏得消費者支持的能力。

But we're working closely with our customers. We're providing the right level of support for our brands. And I think this -- the performance in this quarter just demonstrates the real strength of our retail platform. At the same time, there's ground that we can cover in innovation. I'm pleased that Melanie is on board. She's going to be a big help. There's ground we can cover from a productivity standpoint. Just in running our operations better. And certainly, we'll start to fill up that foodservice volume.

但我們正在與客戶密切合作。我們正在為我們的品牌提供適當水平的支持。我認為這一點——本季度的表現恰好展示了我們零售平台的真正實力。與此同時，我們可以在創新方面有所作為。我很高興 Melanie 在船上。她會是一個很大的幫助。從生產力的角度來看，我們可以涵蓋一些基礎。只是為了更好地運營我們的業務。當然，我們將開始填補該餐飲服務量。

And our next question today comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler。

I just wanted to follow up on the consumer demand piece and just understand, you said you've seen channel shifts and protein shifts and things that sound pretty typical. But in just a few weeks, the elevated Snap party is going to be over. And just curious how you think about for that cohort, which it is a certain demographic. But how do you think about that impact in your planning for the rest of the year?

我只是想跟進消費者需求部分並理解，你說你已經看到渠道轉移和蛋白質轉移以及聽起來很典型的事情。但在短短幾週內，高架 Snap 派對將結束。只是好奇你如何看待那個人群，這是一個特定的人群。但是，您如何看待這種對您今年餘下時間的計劃的影響？

Sure. I will start and then offer it up to anyone else that may have something to add. But I think it's -- if you look at the information that we see, it says the consumer is working through savings. In the middle of the pandemic, they were able to bank a lot of savings. And over the last little bit, they've been working through that savings. And I think many consumers are now out of that -- those savings and -- or at least nearing the last of it and so I would expect the consumer to be under more pressure as we move forward in this year. And -- but I would also remind you that as a company, if you look at our brands and we cover the spectrum across proteins. We have a product for every consumer across various proteins and price points.

當然。我將開始，然後將它提供給可能需要添加內容的任何其他人。但我認為——如果你看一下我們看到的信息，它表明消費者正在通過儲蓄來工作。在大流行期間，他們能夠存入大量積蓄。在過去的一點點時間裡，他們一直在努力節省這筆錢。而且我認為許多消費者現在已經沒有了 - 那些儲蓄 - 或者至少接近最後一個，所以我預計隨著我們今年的前進，消費者將承受更大的壓力。而且——但我也要提醒你，作為一家公司，如果你看看我們的品牌，我們就會涵蓋蛋白質的範圍。我們為每個消費者提供各種蛋白質和價位的產品。

So we feel very good about the fact that we can intersect with that consumer wherever they are, and that would -- that's, I think, a good position to be in and are the best position you can be in. And so we'll see how it turns out. But we don't know any more about that than you do today.

因此，我們感到非常高興的是，無論消費者身在何處，我們都可以與他們互動，這將 - 我認為，這是一個很好的位置，也是你可以處於的最佳位置。所以我們將看看結果如何。但我們對這一點的了解並不比你今天更多。

Yes. I would add 2 things to what Donnie is saying. Number one, if you think about the kind of Prepared and retail branded side of our business, we've been paying attention to what the consumer is doing and feeling over the last few quarters and we continue to today. I think the good news is even in these times where the outlook for the economy is evolving. We've had pretty steady growth and pretty strong performance in that part of our business, which tells us that while, yes, there may be a lot of behavioral changes going on in the economy, we see consumers come into the brands and the categories that we're in repeatedly, so I think we feel good about that.

是的。我想在 Donnie 所說的內容中添加兩點。第一，如果你考慮我們業務的準備和零售品牌方面，我們一直在關註消費者在過去幾個季度的行為和感受，我們一直持續到今天。我認為即使在經濟前景不斷變化的這些時代也是好消息。我們在這部分業務中取得了相當穩定的增長和相當強勁的表現，這告訴我們，是的，雖然經濟中可能會發生很多行為變化，但我們看到消費者進入了品牌和類別我們反复參與，所以我認為我們對此感覺良好。

On the second, point I want to make is from a -- how to say it, the supply and demand balancing on the kind of Fresh and Frozen more commodity protein side of our business, has more influence on how we're performing than does the macro situation because people are going to continue to eat protein. They may cut back on other things, but food is not one of them.

第二，我想說的是——怎麼說呢，在我們業務的新鮮和冷凍商品蛋白質方面，供需平衡對我們的表現影響更大宏觀情況是因為人們將繼續吃蛋白質。他們可能會減少其他事情，但食物不是其中之一。

That's helpful. And just a follow-up on the beef spreads you've called out the drivers of the pressure near term. But any sense of how long before it can rebound? And I know you don't want to get into fiscal '24 really, but maybe any just directional guardrails of how to think about it? Is this going to be more of the same for a while? Is there something you can point to that's a catalyst one way or the other, just a little bit maybe longer look if there's anything you can add there?

這很有幫助。只是對牛肉價差的跟進，你已經指出了近期壓力的驅動因素。但知道它能反彈多久？而且我知道你真的不想進入 24 財年，但也許有任何關於如何思考它的定向護欄？在一段時間內，這會更加相同嗎？有什麼你可以指出的是某種方式的催化劑，只是一點點也許更長的時間看看你是否可以在那裡添加任何東西？

Yes. I mean it's -- I wish I could be here before today and tell you I knew when that was going to happen. But there's kind of some prerequisites before we're going to see that hamper retention, which is going to be driven by better precipitation, getting past the drought and for ranchers to see, to have hay that's more affordable and forage land to be able to beat those animals. I don't think you're going to see hamper retention in a meaningful way until those things occur. And I've listened to every expert that's been through all these cycles through all these years, and I've been through a couple of them myself. It's -- I get a number somewhere between the spring of '23 and the spring of '24, and that's how variable the -- it could be.

是的。我的意思是——我希望我能在今天之前來到這裡並告訴你我知道那什麼時候會發生。但在我們看到阻礙保留之前，有一些先決條件，這將由更好的降水、度過乾旱和牧場主看到的、更負擔得起的干草和牧草地來推動打敗那些動物。在這些事情發生之前，我認為您不會以有意義的方式看到阻礙保留。這些年來，我聽過每一位經歷過所有這些週期的專家的意見，我自己也經歷過其中的幾個。它是——我在 23 年春季和 24 年春季之間的某個地方得到了一個數字，這就是它可能的變化程度。

What I can tell you is the harvest of heifers and the harvest of cows continue. And in a lot of cases, people are paying up for those animals to sell them at a -- for a lesser cutout. So that's what I can tell you about it. Brady, anything you would add to that?

我可以告訴你的是小母牛的收穫和奶牛的收穫仍在繼續。在很多情況下，人們為這些動物付錢是為了以較低的價格出售它們。這就是我可以告訴你的。布雷迪，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, Donnie. Donnie, I think you covered it very well. We have a different situation today than we have in the past as well relative to some of the interest rate pressures. That certainly will have an impact as these ranchers decide to retain heifers as well. So that, coupled with some of the weather and impacts that we see certainly create the uncertainty that you outlined.

不，唐尼。唐尼，我認為你講得很好。在某些利率壓力方面，我們今天的情況與過去不同。這肯定會產生影響，因為這些牧場主也決定保留小母牛。因此，再加上我們看到的一些天氣和影響，肯定會造成您概述的不確定性。

And our next question comes from Eric Larson with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Eric Larson。

It's on the Beef cycle again. And it is -- I guess it's not surprising that we continue to see cow and heifer slaughter. But I guess the question that I have, and it's related to this, we're at 50-year kind of low on these various cattle sectors. And it seems like the recovery for this will certainly take quite a bit longer than maybe I would have expected. Is that -- and now when you've got new capacity coming on stream from some more competitors, what does the increase in capacity with lower and maybe more sustainable lower supplies mean for the mid- to longer-term margin for your business?

它再次進入牛肉週期。而且——我想我們繼續看到母牛和小母牛被屠殺也就不足為奇了。但我想我有一個問題，它與此有關，我們在這些不同的牛部門處於 50 年的低點。看起來這方面的恢復肯定會比我預期的要長得多。那是——現在當你從更多的競爭對手那裡獲得新的產能時，產能的增加以及更低的供應量和更可持續的供應量對你的業務的中長期利潤意味著什麼？

Yes, I will make a few comments, and Brady can step in on this. I mean I think you've described it very well in terms of what the levers are here. Everything you've said, I think I agree with what you said and how you characterize it. And you've also described this future state where there will be more packing capacity with fewer animals. And so if you build the capacity, these are -- for these large plants, you can spend $1 billion to build a beef plant. So if you spend $1 billion to get a beef plant, you're going to process animals. And so that could, in all likelihood, drive up the price of the cattle that are available at that point.

是的，我會發表一些評論，布雷迪可以介入。我的意思是我認為你已經很好地描述了這裡的槓桿。你所說的一切，我想我同意你所說的以及你如何描述它。你還描述了未來的狀態，即用更少的動物包裝更多的東西。因此，如果你建立產能，這些是 - 對於這些大型工廠，你可以花費 10 億美元建造一個牛肉廠。因此，如果您花費 10 億美元建立一家牛肉廠，您將要加工動物。因此，這很可能會推高當時可用的牛的價格。

But the -- you're going to get some pushback with consumer if you try to cover that or try to get cutout to cover that. So I see all the same pressures and dynamics that you just outlined. And it's going to take a bit to rebuild the herd. And once we get to whatever the bottom is, I mean, we're looking at 2-plus years to be able to see some better times. Brady?

但是——如果你試圖掩蓋這一點或試圖通過剪裁來掩蓋這一點，你將會受到消費者的一些抵制。所以我看到了你剛才概述的所有相同的壓力和動力。重建牛群需要一些時間。一旦我們觸及底部，我的意思是，我們期待 2 年多的時間才能看到更好的時光。布雷迪？

Thanks for that, Donnie. I think there's a couple of other factors that we need to consider as we come out of the cycle. And one of them is certain -- certainly relative to export demand. And we've seen an increase in terms of demand from our export partners relative to higher grading cattle. I think that is an anomaly relative to cycles that we have certainly seen in the past, and it's something that we will be watching as well. We've seen the strength that I mentioned earlier relative to some of the drop values in byproducts as well. So certainly combining not only the supply factors that you touched on from a live cattle perspective, but also the demand factors that are going to come into play from both our export customers and our domestic customers is certainly a focal point for us.

謝謝你，唐尼。我認為在走出週期時，我們還需要考慮其他幾個因素。其中之一是肯定的——當然與出口需求有關。我們已經看到我們的出口合作夥伴對更高等級的牛的需求有所增加。我認為這是我們過去肯定看到的相對於週期的異常現象，這也是我們將要關注的事情。我們也看到了我之前提到的與副產品的一些下降值相關的優勢。因此，當然，不僅要結合您從活牛的角度提到的供應因素，還要結合我們的出口客戶和國內客戶將發揮作用的需求因素，這無疑是我們關注的焦點。

Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn it back to management for any final remarks.

好的。女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將其轉回管理層以徵求任何最終意見。

Sure. This is John again. And just a couple of things to wrap up on. We want to make sure we got the cover with you before I hand it to Donnie to close it off. I think the first thing, if we think about the top-line guidance that we've given, our outlook there is probably in the bottom half of that range just to kind of crystallize where we are today. And then I think the second thing is we didn't really have to touch on capital allocation today, although I know it's a point of interest for many folks. And our capital expenditure outlook for the year is firm at or around that $2.5 billion number. But I think what we would guide to as we look forward, that's probably the high watermark. And for us, our priorities are kind of preserving financial strength and flexibility, investing for returns in our business. And then after that, being disciplined on M&A, dividends and share repo.

當然。這又是約翰。還有幾件事要結束。在我把它交給 Donnie 關閉它之前，我們想確保我們把封面交給你了。我認為首先，如果我們考慮我們給出的頂線指導，我們的前景可能在該範圍的下半部分，只是為了明確我們今天的位置。然後我認為第二件事是我們今天真的不必討論資本配置，儘管我知道這對很多人來說都是一個興趣點。我們今年的資本支出前景穩定在 25 億美元左右。但我認為我們期待的是什麼，這可能是高水位線。對我們來說，我們的首要任務是保持財務實力和靈活性，投資於我們的業務回報。然後在那之後，在併購、股息和股票回購方面受到紀律處分。

So I just want to make sure people understood kind of what the outlook was like there. And yes, I think with that, Donnie, I'll hand it back to you just to close it out.

所以我只想確保人們了解那裡的前景。是的，我認為，唐尼，我會把它還給你只是為了結束它。

All right. Thanks, John. We're building a world-class business organization positioned to take advantage of the opportunities in front of us. We remain confident that our strategy will deliver long-term growth and shareholder value. Thank you for your interest in Tyson Foods, and we look forward to speaking with you soon. Goodbye.

好的。謝謝，約翰。我們正在建立一個世界級的商業組織，以充分利用我們面前的機遇。我們仍然相信我們的戰略將帶來長期增長和股東價值。感謝您對泰森食品的關注，我們期待盡快與您交談。再見。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家出席今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。