台積電 ADR (TSM) 2008 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the TSMC's Third-Quarter 2008 Results Webcast Conference Call.

歡迎參加台積電 2008 年第三季度業績網絡直播電話會議。

Today's event is chaired by Ms.

今天的活動由張女士主持。

Lora Ho, Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, and Dr.

Lora Ho，首席財務官兼副總裁，博士。

Rick Tsai, Chief Executive Officer and President.

Rick Tsai，首席執行官兼總裁。

This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com, in only audio mode.

本次電話會議將通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播，僅採用音頻模式。

Your dial-in lines are also in listen-only mode.

您的撥入線路也處於只聽模式。

At the conclusion of management's presentation, we will be opening the floor for questions.

在管理層的演講結束時，我們將開始提問。

At that time, further instructions will be provided as the procedure to follow if you would like to pose any questions.

屆時，如果您想提出任何問題，將提供進一步的說明作為遵循的程序。

Please be advised, for those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

請注意，對於尚未獲得新聞稿副本的參與者，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

Once again, the URL is www.tsmc.com.

再一次，URL 是 www.tsmc.com。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr.

我現在想把會議交給博士。

Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations, with a cautionary statement before the main presentation by Ms.

台積電投資者關係負責人 Elizabeth Sun 女士在主要演講前發表了一份警告聲明。

Ho and Dr.

何博士和博士。

Tsai.

蔡。

Thank you, Charissa.

謝謝你，查麗莎。

Good morning and good evening to all participants.

祝所有參與者早上好，晚上好。

This is Elizabeth Sun, Head of Investor Relations for TSMC.

我是台積電投資者關係主管 Elizabeth Sun。

Before we begin, I would like to state that management's comments about TSMC's current expectations made during this conference call are forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想聲明管理層在本次電話會議期間對台積電當前預期的評論是前瞻性陳述，存在重大風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 15, 2008, and such other documents as TSMC may file with or submit to the SEC from time to time.

有關可能導致實際結果與台積電的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息，請參閱台積電於 2008 年 4 月 15 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及此類其他文件台積電可能會不時向 SEC 提交文件或提交給 SEC。

Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

And now I would like to turn the conference call over to Ms.

現在我想把電話會議轉給女士。

Lora Ho, our Chief Financial Officer and Vice President.

Lora Ho，我們的首席財務官兼副總裁。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good morning and good evening to everyone.

大家早上好，晚上好。

Welcome to our Third-Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加我們的 2008 年第三季度收益電話會議。

In summary, our third-quarter business saw an improvement from the second quarter with demand growth across the board.

綜上所述，我們第三季度的業務較第二季度有所改善，需求全面增長。

TSMC registered nearly TWD93 billion revenue, which was the second highest quarterly revenue in our history.

台積電錄得近 930 億新台幣的收入，這是我們歷史上第二高的季度收入。

If compared on equal footing, that is if we do not consider the expensing of employee profit sharing, net income and EPS would have been higher than those obtained in 4Q '07, which was the quarter with the highest revenue.

如果同等比較，也就是說，如果我們不考慮員工利潤分享的費用，淨收入和每股收益將高於 07 年第四季度，這是收入最高的季度。

Output utilization was close to 100% in third quarter.

第三季度的產出利用率接近 100%。

Even with employee profit-sharing expensing, we achieved more than 46% gross profit margins, a level higher than that of third quarter 2007, which had a similar utilization rate, more favorable exchange rate and without carrying the burden of employee profit-sharing expensing in that quarter.

即使將員工分紅費用化，我們的毛利率也達到了 46% 以上，高於 2007 年第三季度的水平，後者俱有相似的使用率、更優惠的匯率，並且沒有承擔員工分紅費用的負擔在那個季度。

We have demonstrated, once again, our ability to consistently make money and improve profitability.

我們再次證明了我們持續賺錢和提高盈利能力的能力。

Now I will start to go over the slides, then I will give you the outlook for the fourth-quarter '08.

現在我將開始瀏覽幻燈片，然後我將向您介紹 08 年第四季度的前景。

Please refer to the quarterly financial summary slides on our website.

請參閱我們網站上的季度財務摘要幻燈片。

All dollar figures are in NT dollars unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，所有美元數字均以新台幣為單位。

Now let me give you some detail about third-quarter results.

現在讓我給你一些關於第三季度業績的細節。

Our third-quarter business see an improvement from the previous quarter.

我們第三季度的業務比上一季度有所改善。

We shipped 2.4 million eight-inch equivalent wafers, which was about 3.5% more compared to the previous quarter.

我們出貨了 240 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓，與上一季度相比增加了約 3.5%。

NT dollars depreciated 2.4% on average over the quarter, and our reported revenue and margins benefited from it.

新台幣在本季度平均貶值 2.4%，我們報告的收入和利潤率從中受益。

Our revenue was TWD93 billion, and our gross and operating margins were 46.3% and 35.4% respectively.

我們的收入為 930 億新台幣，毛利率和營業利潤率分別為 46.3% 和 35.4%。

EPS was TWD1.18 for the quarter, a sequential increase of 7.5%.

本季度每股收益為 1.18 新台幣，環比增長 7.5%。

Free cash flow generated during the third quarter doubled to be TWD45.5 billion, and return on equity was 27%.

第三季度產生的自由現金流翻了一番，達到 455 億新台幣，股本回報率為 27%。

Let's take a closer look at our income statement for sequential and year-over-year comparison.

讓我們仔細看看我們的損益表，以進行連續和同比比較。

Please let me remind you, again, that accounting numbers reported for 2007 do not reflect the effects from the employee profit-sharing expensing.

請讓我再次提醒您，2007 年報告的會計數字並未反映員工利潤分享費用的影響。

This is a major difference from 2008.

這與 2008 年有很大不同。

That being said, our third-quarter revenue increased 5.5% sequentially and 4.5% year-over-year.

話雖如此，我們第三季度的收入環比增長 5.5%，同比增長 4.5%。

Compared with 2Q '08, gross margin rate increased 0.7 percentage points, and operating margin rates increased 0.9 points reflecting a favorable change of exchange rate.

與 08 年第二季度相比，毛利率上升 0.7 個百分點，營業利潤率上升 0.9 個百分點，反映了有利的匯率變化。

Now operating income was TWD1.3 billion, and we booked TWD185 million long-term investment gain.

現在營業收入為13億新台幣，我們計入了1.85億新台幣的長期投資收益。

Net profit margin rate was 32.9%.

淨利潤率為32.9%。

Now let's examine our revenue by applications.

現在讓我們按應用檢查我們的收入。

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, demand grew across the board.

在季度環比的基礎上，需求全面增長。

Revenues from computer, communications and consumer applications increased 9%, 7% and 1% respectively.

來自計算機、通信和消費應用的收入分別增長了 9%、7% 和 1%。

Overall revenue from computer, communications and consumer applications accounts for 33%, 41% and 20% of all wafer sales.

計算機、通信和消費應用的總收入佔所有晶圓銷售額的 33%、41% 和 20%。

In terms of revenue by technology, we continued our strong ramp of 65 nanometers during the quarter.

在技術收入方面，我們在本季度繼續強勁增長 65 納米。

Revenue from 65 nanometer accounted for 25% of total wafer revenue.

來自 65 納米的收入佔晶圓總收入的 25%。

This is up 7 percentage points from last quarter.

這比上一季度上升了 7 個百分點。

We expect 2008 to be a year for a strong 65-nanometer business ramp.

我們預計 2008 年將是 65 納米業務強勁增長的一年。

Total revenue from advanced technologies accounted for 66% of wafer sales, up 3 percentage points from the second quarter.

先進技術總收入佔矽片銷售額的66%，比第二季度增長3個百分點。

Now let's move to the balance sheet and cash flow statements.

現在讓我們轉到資產負債表和現金流量表。

We ended the third quarter with TWD158 billion in cash and short-term investments, down from TWD224 billion in the last quarter.

我們在第三季度末的現金和短期投資為 1580 億新台幣，低於上一季度的 2240 億新台幣。

This is mainly due to the payment of cash dividends in the third quarter.

這主要是由於第三季度支付了現金分紅。

Average collection period for accounts receivable came up by one day to 43 days, while days of inventory came down two days to 47 days.

應收賬款的平均回收期增加了 1 天至 43 天，而庫存天數減少了 2 天至 47 天。

Our net fixed asset turnover was 1.4 times.

我們的淨固定資產周轉率為 1.4 倍。

Total cash inflow generated from operating activities in the third quarter reached TWD56 billion.

第三季度經營活動產生的總現金流入達560億新台幣。

Capital expenditure was TWD10.4 billion, which was TWD12 billion less than the previous quarter.

資本支出為104億新台幣，比上一季度減少120億新台幣。

Free cash flow went up to TWD46 billion, mainly due to less capital expenditure and a tax payment in the quarter.

自由現金流上升至 460 億新台幣，主要是由於本季度資本支出減少和繳納稅款。

There was TWD77 billion paid for cash dividends, TWD24 billion spent for share buyback and TWD18 billion net investment in short-term investment.

支付現金股息770億新台幣，股票回購支出240億新台幣，短期投資淨投資180億新台幣。

We ended the third quarter with TWD73 billion less in cash.

我們在第三季度末現金減少了 730 億新台幣。

Now let's turn to capacity and CapEx.

現在讓我們轉向產能和資本支出。

Total installed capacity for the third quarter was about 2.4 million eight-inch equivalent wafers, about 5% more compared with second-quarter '08.

第三季度的總裝機容量約為 240 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓，與 08 年第二季度相比增加了約 5%。

We expect the fourth-quarter capacity to be 2.5 million wafers, up 3% sequentially, mainly due to the productivity improvement.

我們預計第四季度的產能為 250 萬片，環比增長 3%，主要是由於生產力的提高。

2008 capacity is expected to reach 9.4 million wafers, up 13% year-over-year with 27% growth for 12-inch wafer capacity.

2008 年產能預計將達到 940 萬片，同比增長 13%，其中 12 英寸晶圓產能增長 27%。

We spent $332 million in CapEx during the third quarter.

第三季度，我們在資本支出上花費了 3.32 億美元。

Till the third quarter of 2008, total CapEx reached $1.5 billion.

到 2008 年第三季度，總資本支出達到 15 億美元。

The total CapEx for 2008, the whole year, remains at $1.8 billion, unchanged from our previous guidance.

2008 年全年資本支出總額保持在 18 億美元，與我們之前的指導保持不變。

With that, let me give you the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2008.

有了這個，讓我給你2008年第四季度的展望。

Based on current business expectations and a forecast exchange rate of TWD32.73, we expect our consolidated revenue to come in between TWD69 billion to TWD71 billion.

根據目前的業務預期和 32.73 新台幣的預測匯率，我們預計我們的綜合收入將在 690 億新台幣至 710 億新台幣之間。

In terms of margins, we expect our fourth-quarter gross margin to be between 34% and 36%, operating profit margin to be between 21% to 23%.

在利潤率方面，我們預計第四季度的毛利率在 34% 到 36% 之間，營業利潤率在 21% 到 23% 之間。

This concludes my remarks today.

我今天的發言到此結束。

Now I will turn the call to Dr.

現在我將把電話轉給博士。

Rick Tsai, our CEO, for his remarks.

我們的首席執行官 Rick Tsai 發表了講話。

Good evening.

晚上好。

I'd like to first comment on the business outlook beginning with the year 2008.

我想首先評論一下從 2008 年開始的業務前景。

In this very severe business environment, semiconductor industry certainly cannot be excluded from the impact.

在這種非常嚴峻的商業環境下，半導體行業當然不能被排除在影響之外。

We are now seeing the semiconductor industry revenue to decline by about 10% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

我們現在看到半導體行業的收入在 2008 年第四季度下降了大約 10%。

So as a result, the semiconductor industry in the whole year of 2008 will like to be flattish compared to 2007.

因此，2008 年全年半導體行業與 2007 年相比將趨於平緩。

So on a full-year basis, TSMC should still outperform the semiconductor industry, and we'll deliver positive growth in 2008.

所以從全年來看，台積電應該還是會跑贏半導體行業，我們將在 2008 年實現正增長。

Now let me turn to 2009.

現在讓我回到 2009 年。

We now expect the semiconductor industry to decline by mid to high single digits in 2009.

我們現在預計 2009 年半導體行業將下降中高個位數。

I'd like to add, with very little visibility as of now, this projection, of course, is subject to, most likely, changes going forward.

我想補充一點，目前可見度很低，當然，這個預測很可能會在未來發生變化。

We have put in some conservative estimates of the system units shipments for 2009.

我們對 2009 年的系統單元出貨量做了一些保守的估計。

However, we really cannot say we have a clear picture for the year.

然而，我們真的不能說我們對今年有一個清晰的畫面。

And in this highly unsettling economy, also due to supply chain's action in reducing inventories very aggressively, we believe the foundry sector will likely underperform the overall semiconductor industry in 2009.

在這個高度動蕩的經濟環境下，也由於供應鏈非常積極地減少庫存，我們認為代工行業在 2009 年的表現可能會遜於整個半導體行業。

Now with such severe challenges ahead of us, I'd like to comment on what TSMC is doing and will do.

現在面對如此嚴峻的挑戰，我想評論一下台積電正在做什麼以及將要做什麼。

As you all know, we are in an unusually challenging environment.

眾所周知，我們處於一個異常具有挑戰性的環境中。

Global financial markets are in unprecedented turmoil, and a global economic recession is looming.

全球金融市場空前動盪，全球經濟衰退迫在眉睫。

We are preparing ourselves to weather the storm well, and we are preparing ourselves to come out of this storm strong and stronger.

我們正在準備好度過這場風暴，我們正在準備自己越來越強大地走出這場風暴。

What we're going to do will be in the next six categories.

我們要做的將是接下來的六個類別。

First, we are reviewing our capital spending in 2009 very cautiously.

首先，我們正在非常謹慎地審查 2009 年的資本支出。

We expect to cut down our capital investments next year significantly.

我們預計明年將大幅削減資本投資。

We will invest, however, in 40-nanometer capacity and our R&D requirements.

然而，我們將投資於 40 納米產能和我們的研發需求。

Second, we will strengthen our cost reduction and expense control efforts as we have been doing for quite some time.

二是加大降本控費力度。

We believe, with this challenge ahead, we will make further progress in that area.

我們相信，面對這一挑戰，我們將在該領域取得進一步進展。

Thirdly, in addition to the steady improvement of the cost and expense control, we are also working on structure improvement in our manufacturing cost area.

第三，除了成本費用控制穩步提升外，我們也在製造成本領域進行結構優化。

Fourthly and even more importantly, we will continue to invest aggressively in our future, both in technology and in our capabilities.

第四，更重要的是，我們將繼續積極投資於我們的未來，無論是在技術上還是在我們的能力上。

We are not only going to invest in advanced technology area, we will also invest heavily in the mainstream technology capabilities.

我們不僅要在先進技術領域進行投資，我們還將大力投資於主流技術能力。

We expect to expand our market, our customer base and, of course, our revenues further with such efforts.

我們希望通過這些努力進一步擴大我們的市場、客戶群，當然還有我們的收入。

We are confident that TSMC will emerge as a stronger and better company when the market and the economy eventually recover.

我們相信，當市場和經濟最終復甦時，台積電將成為一家更強大、更好的公司。

Fifth, TSMC is committed to achieving our target structure profitability.

第五，台積電致力於實現我們的目標結構盈利能力。

We will do so through improving our cost structure and by maintaining reasonable pricing.

我們將通過改善成本結構和保持合理定價來做到這一點。

Sixth, meanwhile, we will continue our dividend policy of maximum cash return, and we are committed to paying TWD3.00 dividend per share in 2009.

第六，同時，我們將繼續執行最大現金回報的股息政策，並承諾在2009年派發每股新台幣3.00元的股息。

These are my remarks.

這些是我的評論。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Elizabeth?

伊麗莎白？

Operator, I think we can open the floor for questions now.

接線員，我想我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

And your first question comes from the line of Shailesh Jaitly of Nomura Securities.

您的第一個問題來自野村證券的 Shailesh Jaitly。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

This is Shailesh Jaitly from Nomura.

這是來自野村的 Shailesh Jaitly。

Firstly, a question for Rick Tsai, if you could just clarify.

首先，Rick Tsai 的一個問題，如果你能澄清一下的話。

You talked about the very early expectations of 2009, semi growth number -- semi decline numbers actually, in revenue terms.

您談到了 2009 年的早期預期，即半增長數字——實際上是半下降數字，以收入計算。

In comprehending that estimate of mid to high single-digit decline for semi industry, what kind of unit growth, unit system growth, are you looking at?

在理解半導體行業中高個位數下降的估計時，您在看什麼樣的單位增長，單位系統增長？

Yes, I agree with you that this is early for projecting the 2009 semiconductor industry.

是的，我同意你的看法，現在預測 2009 年的半導體行業還為時過早。

We have come across many questions, however, from investors and the analysts, so that's why we decided to share some of our views with you.

然而，我們從投資者和分析師那裡遇到了許多問題，因此我們決定與您分享我們的一些觀點。

And as I said earlier, this is of course an early projection.

正如我之前所說，這當然是一個早期的預測。

I would definitely expect this projection to change as the year goes ahead.

我肯定希望這一預測隨著時間的推移而改變。

So the assumption, I think mostly for the PC we're now -- we are putting in negative growth units again from mid to high single-digit.

所以假設，我認為主要是針對我們現在的個人電腦——我們再次將負增長單位從中到高個位數。

We are also projecting handset to decline in the unit shipment, also, along with the consumer electronics, especially in the developed economies.

我們還預計手機出貨量將下降，消費電子產品也將下降，尤其是在發達經濟體。

I think the growth will continue -- we believe the growth will continue in the developing countries, however, at a much lower rate compared to the last few years.

我認為增長將繼續——我們相信發展中國家將繼續增長，但是與過去幾年相比，增長速度要低得多。

I understand.

我明白。

For you, the PC or the computing segment was the highest growth driver.

對您而言，個人電腦或計算領域是最高的增長動力。

Looking at -- and yesterday, we heard from SPEL they were guiding at 8% to 13% declines as they get into the fourth quarter.

看看 - 昨天，我們從 SPEL 獲悉，隨著他們進入第四季度，他們指導的跌幅為 8% 至 13%。

You have talked about the broader sense about 10%.

你談到了廣義的 10%。

Is the computing decline going to be more than the corporate average as you go into the fourth quarter or less than the corporate average?

當您進入第四季度時，計算下降將超過企業平均水平還是低於企業平均水平？

Okay.

好的。

For our shipments here, our fourth-quarter computer-related wafer shipment, we expect to see over 20% of decline, which is very severe compared to a more -- compared to a seasonal, for instance, mid-teen percentage growth.

對於我們這裡的出貨量，我們第四季度與計算機相關的晶圓出貨量，我們預計將看到超過 20% 的下降，與季節性相比，這是非常嚴重的——例如，與季節性增長相比，增長率為 10%。

I understand.

我明白。

Can I just ask one final question, please?

請問我可以問最後一個問題嗎？

Please.

請。

Yes, 65-nanometer has been a big growth area.

是的，65 納米一直是一個很大的增長領域。

Also, if you could provide some color as to which are the main applications driving that growth in the third quarter; and what do you expect it to be going forward?

此外，如果您可以提供一些顏色，說明哪些是推動第三季度增長的主要應用；你期望它會怎樣發展？

Computer applications, graphics, mobile phone applications, chipsets, set-top boxes, some of the wireless connectivity and the DTVs, these are all important applications, which have used our 65 and 55-nanometer technologies.

計算機應用、圖形、手機應用、芯片組、機頂盒、一些無線連接和數字電視，這些都是重要的應用，它們都使用了我們的 65 和 55 納米技術。

We expect this to continue, although some of the products will migrate into 40-nanometer some time early to mid next year.

我們預計這種情況將繼續下去，儘管一些產品將在明年年初至年中的某個時間遷移到 40 納米。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

That's very helpful, Rick.

這很有幫助，瑞克。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Heyler of Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美林證券的 Dan Heyler。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Hi there, just a quick question on the pricing side, again.

您好，再次在定價方面提出一個簡短的問題。

As you looked at the US dollar revenue being up 3%, and shipments in the third quarter being up 3.5%, implying some ASP erosion, and then, as I look at your 65, not only did it increase to about 25% of revenue from Q4, there was a big mix shift there, 90 was only down a couple of percentage points, Rick.

當你看到美元收入增長 3%，第三季度的出貨量增長 3.5%，這意味著 ASP 有所下降，然後，當我看到你的 65 時，它不僅增加到收入的 25% 左右從第四季度開始，那裡發生了很大的混合變化，90 只下降了幾個百分點，里克。

So we're seeing your, actually, advanced technology of 90 and below go from 36% to 41% based on the numbers I have here.

因此，根據我這裡的數字，我們看到你的 90 及以下的先進技術從 36% 上升到 41%。

So it looks as though there was a mix increase overall, and I'm wondering why the ASP isn't stronger.

所以看起來整體上似乎有一個混合增長，我想知道為什麼 ASP 不強。

[I said] we are still 2008.

[我說] 我們還是 2008 年。

We have firmed up our pricing since the beginning of the year.

自今年年初以來，我們已經確定了定價。

However, we also said early in the year that quite a bit of the pricing was determined in 2008 back in 2007, in the third quarter of 2007.

然而，我們在年初也說過，相當多的定價是在 2007 年，即 2007 年第三季度的 2008 年確定的。

So we are still -- we didn't say we have stopped the price decline in 2008.

所以我們仍然——我們沒有說我們已經停止了 2008 年的價格下跌。

The price decline continued.

價格繼續下跌。

However, the rate of which has slowed down quite a bit.

但是，其速度已經放緩了很多。

I believe our pricing, overall pricing, in third quarter met our expectations as far as the 2008 total pricing trend is concerned.

我相信，就 2008 年的總定價趨勢而言，我們在第三季度的定價（整體定價）符合我們的預期。

Okay.

好的。

So the initiative was on 65 mainly, and that should play out in '09 then?

所以主動權主要是在 65 上，那應該在 09 年發揮作用嗎？

Yes, in '09, for the advanced technology, we have firmed up even further.

是的，在09年，對於先進的技術，我們更加堅定了。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And my second question was, I guess, back to visiting the old inventory question, which has been one of much debate the last year or so, what is normal inventories and what is high and what is low.

我想我的第二個問題是，回到過去的庫存問題，這是去年左右爭論的焦點之一，什麼是正常庫存，什麼是高庫存，什麼是低庫存。

Based on, now, the information that's occurred here in the third quarter, and you're seeing your customers now start to really want to ratchet down their inventories as you said, in your mind, how far do they need to go to be comfortable?

根據現在第三季度發生的信息，您看到您的客戶現在開始真正想要減少他們的庫存，正如您所說，在您的腦海中，他們需要走多遠才能感到舒適?

Again, just directly your customers; I know the end markets are very hard to call right now.

再次，只是直接你的客戶；我知道現在很難確定終端市場。

But as those companies are getting nervous about end demand, how low and how long do they need to reduce in their mind?

但隨著這些公司對最終需求越來越緊張，他們認為需要減少多低和多長時間？

Well of course, our customers do not tell us what their inventory target is.

當然，我們的客戶不會告訴我們他們的庫存目標是什麼。

I think in many cases they are probably still struggling with it.

我認為在許多情況下，他們可能仍在為此苦苦掙扎。

However, we look at, probably as you do too, the history during the last seven, eight years, especially after the 2001 downturn.

但是，我們可能會像您一樣審視過去七八年的歷史，尤其是在 2001 年經濟低迷之後。

We are seeing data for the days of inventory to go down to, say, about mid-50 days.

我們看到庫存天數下降到大約 50 天左右。

I think that is one number we use as a reference.

我認為這是我們用作參考的一個數字。

Again, I'd like to stress that we do not a have firm idea as to what the customers are really driving down to.

再次，我想強調的是，我們對客戶真正追求的目標沒有明確的想法。

Right.

正確的。

And as I look at that number, I'm wondering if the cycle times, perhaps being longer, is a percentage of overall mix -- whether or not that number would be higher at this point or lower.

當我看到這個數字時，我想知道周期時間（可能更長）是否佔整體組合的百分比——這個數字在這一點上是更高還是更低。

I don't know if you guys have thought about that in the historical context or not.

不知道你們有沒有在歷史背景下考慮過。

I cannot say.

我不能說。

I will say the generic cycle time, at least from a wafer manufacturing point of view, has come down.

我會說，至少從晶圓製造的角度來看，通用周期時間已經下降。

However, of course, as people move to higher, more advanced technologies, there're a lot more specs, also.

然而，當然，隨著人們轉向更高、更先進的技術，也有更多的規格。

Dan, I do not have a rigorous analysis from that point of view, but we do feel that it will take the system companies and the semiconductor companies some time into the first quarter of next year to have their inventory days down to the level we just discussed.

丹，我沒有從這個角度進行嚴格的分析，但我們確實認為系統公司和半導體公司需要一段時間才能在明年第一季度將他們的庫存天數降到我們剛剛提到的水平討論過。

Your next question comes from the line of Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，你好。

Good evening.

晚上好。

I wanted to see on the gross margins could you talk a little more about the magnitude of gross margin decline in fourth quarter?

我想看看毛利率，你能多談談第四季度毛利率下降的幅度嗎？

Is some of that reduction due to lower wafer starts in fourth quarter ahead of first-quarter shipments, or is there also a pricing or mix change factoring into fourth-quarter gross margins?

部分減少是由於第一季度出貨前第四季度的晶圓開工率下降，還是定價或組合變化也影響了第四季度的毛利率？

The fourth-quarter gross margin decrease is mainly due to the lower utilization for both in our eight-inch line and also in our 12-inch line.

第四季度毛利率下降主要是由於我們的 8 英寸生產線和 12 英寸生產線的利用率較低。

That is the main reason.

這是主要原因。

Okay.

好的。

Is there a bigger factor in terms of the fall in utilization between eight-inch and 12-inch?

8 英寸和 12 英寸之間的利用率下降是否有更大的因素？

Both capacity came -- both (inaudible) came down about the same magnitude.

兩種容量都來了——兩者（聽不清）都下降了大約相同的幅度。

Okay.

好的。

And then, I wanted to see if you can talk about the foundry company just in the perspective you've talked about microprocessors as an opportunity.

然後，我想看看您是否可以僅從您將微處理器視為機會的角度來談論代工公司。

Do you discount, now, your potential, or do you lessen that investment to still target that customer for microprocessors?

您現在是否低估了您的潛力，或者您是否會減少投資以仍然針對微處理器的客戶？

And then, how do you view competing against the venture as far as the graphics business?

然後，就圖形業務而言，您如何看待與合資企業的競爭？

Randy, as far as the competitor is concerned, you know our attitude has always been we take them very seriously, every one of them.

蘭迪，就競爭對手而言，你知道我們的態度一直是我們非常重視他們，他們每一個人。

And we also compete very seriously with every one of them.

我們也非常認真地與他們每一個人競爭。

Other than that, we do not really comment on individual competitors.

除此之外，我們並沒有真正評論個別競爭對手。

As far as the AMD is concerned, of course microprocessors have always been manufactured in their internal fabs, or except for some foundry I guess a couple of years ago.

就 AMD 而言，當然微處理器總是在他們的內部晶圓廠中製造，或者除了一些代工廠，我猜是幾年前。

I think, from our point of view, that that does not have much impact on us.

我認為，從我們的角度來看，這對我們沒有太大影響。

AMD, of course, also through their ATI acquisition, has a long and a strong relationship, foundry relationship, with us.

AMD 當然，也通過他們對 ATI 的收購，與我們有著長期而牢固的代工關係。

We did have communication before the announcement, [as] both companies valued this relation very much and both companies will continue to foster this relation going forward.

在宣布之前我們確實進行了溝通，[因為]兩家公司都非常重視這種關係，兩家公司將繼續促進這種關係向前發展。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Pranab Sarmah of Daiwa Securities.

您的下一個問題來自大和證券的 Pranab Sarmah。

Hi, this is Pranab from Daiwa.

嗨，我是大和的 Pranab。

Hello.

你好。

Hello.

你好。

Yes, I'm just making sure, like, they picked up the right name.

是的，我只是確保他們選擇了正確的名字。

Anyway, now I have two questions.

無論如何，現在我有兩個問題。

The first one is one your CapEx point of view.

第一個是您的資本支出觀點。

You have indicated you might cut down CapEx about 20% for 2009.

你曾表示你可能會在 2009 年削減大約 20% 的資本支出。

In that scenario, what type of capacity additions do you have in 2009?

在這種情況下，您在 2009 年增加了哪些類型的產能？

I think the 20%, as I talked about this afternoon, is what we are thinking at this moment, though 2009 is still highly uncertain.

我認為我今天下午談到的 20% 是我們目前正在考慮的，儘管 2009 年仍然非常不確定。

For that CapEx estimation for 2009, as you can think of, it will be mainly for 12-inch, especially for 40 and 45-nanometer ramp up.

如您所想，對於 2009 年的資本支出估算，它將主要針對 12 英寸，尤其是 40 和 45 納米的增長。

Okay.

好的。

And if I see, like, your macro outlook for 2009 basically talking about end demand or end product is negative growth, semiconductor industry or foundry industry will be even growing at a slower rate, and your capacity, even if you don't add anything, it will be up probably about 6% year-on-year.

如果我看到，比如，你對 2009 年的宏觀展望基本上是在談論最終需求或最終產品是負增長，半導體行業或代工行業甚至會以更慢的速度增長，而你的產能，即使你不添加任何東西，它可能會同比增長約 6%。

Do you really need to spend that much of money next year?

明年你真的需要花那麼多錢嗎？

The 40 and 45-nanometer in 2009 will be a big ramp year.

2009 年的 40 和 45 納米將是一個大的爬坡年。

So that particular -- no, we are going to see demand increase versus this year.

所以特別 - 不，我們將看到與今年相比需求增加。

That's why we need to add capacity for it.

這就是為什麼我們需要為它增加容量。

We're also investing in the R&D tools for the 22-nanometer technology demand.

我們還在投資研發工具以滿足 22 納米技術的需求。

So that will occupy some of the CapEx.

所以這將佔用一些資本支出。

Okay.

好的。

And my second question is basically can you give us a little bit of color on your view about the industry consolidation?

我的第二個問題基本上是您能否就您對行業整合的看法給我們一些色彩？

Do you think that, in this downturn, that the foundry industry could go to any sort of consolidation?

您是否認為，在這種低迷時期，代工行業可能會進行任何形式的整合？

And if it happens, what would be TSMC's response on that?

如果發生這種情況，台積電對此有何回應？

Pranab, I think it is really improper for us to comment on this point.

Pranab，我認為我們對這一點發表評論確實不合適。

So I would politely decline to do that.

所以我會禮貌地拒絕這樣做。

Your next question comes from Bhavin Shah from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Bhavin Shah。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, Rick, Lora and Elizabeth.

嗨，瑞克、勞拉和伊麗莎白。

I have two questions.

我有兩個問題。

But my first question is -- I just want to go back to the 2000 to 2002 time frame.

但我的第一個問題是——我只想回到 2000 到 2002 年的時間框架。

Interestingly, your revenues sort of got back to 2000 levels by 2002, so just in the first year of recovery.

有趣的是，到 2002 年，你的收入有點回到 2000 年的水平，所以只是在復甦的第一年。

So that was an amazing recovery on the revenue line.

所以這是收入線上的驚人復蘇。

However, your profits did not for three reasons.

但是，您的利潤並沒有因為三個原因。

One was that depreciation was significantly higher, R&D was significantly higher and also the non-operating losses were significantly higher.

一是折舊顯著增加，研發顯著增加，營業外損失顯著增加。

Now we all know that depreciation will be significantly --- well, it most likely will decline in 2010, I would imagine, given the way you're guiding for CapEx.

現在我們都知道折舊將顯著——嗯，我想，考慮到您對資本支出的指導方式，它很可能會在 2010 年下降。

But what do you think will happen to R&D expenses and non-operating losses?

但您認為研發費用和營業外虧損會發生什麼變化？

Just so that, if for some reasons, your revenues do bounce back in 2010, will the profits recover accordingly?

只是這樣，如果由於某些原因，您的收入在 2010 年確實反彈，利潤會相應恢復嗎？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Good, Bhavin, let me comment on the R&D, and I will have Lora on the non-operating.

好的，Bhavin，讓我評論一下研發，我會讓 Lora 負責非運營。

Okay.

好的。

R&D, Bhavin, we will, as I said, strengthen our R&D investment.

研發，Bhavin，正如我所說，我們將加強我們的研發投資。

We have not really worked out the numbers yet, but our intention is to increase the R&D investment.

我們還沒有真正計算出這個數字，但我們的意圖是增加研發投入。

I'm not saying we will increase that by a large jump.

我並不是說我們會大幅增加它。

However, we are looking into investing, as I said, not only in 22-nanometer, 32-nanometer technology, but also in many of the specialty technologies that will help us gain market in the mainstream technology business area.

然而，正如我所說，我們正在考慮投資，不僅投資於 22 納米、32 納米技術，而且還投資於許多有助於我們在主流技術業務領域獲得市場的專業技術。

So I think from a percentage point of view, a percentage of the revenue point of view, it's definitely going to be higher than, say, 6% going forward for R&D.

所以我認為從百分比的角度來看，從收入的百分比來看，它肯定會高於研發的 6%。

Yes, in 2000 to 2002, it jumped from 4% to 7%, and currently you're running about 6%.

是的，從 2000 年到 2002 年，它從 4% 躍升至 7%，而目前您的運行速度約為 6%。

So how much of a jump could we assume at, say, at similar revenue levels in a couple of years' time?

那麼，我們可以假設幾年後在類似的收入水平上會有多大的跳躍呢？

I will say, again, you probably can assume a 1-point-plus type of increase, assuming a similar revenue or higher revenue.

我再說一遍，假設收入相似或更高，您可能可以假設增加 1 點以上。

If it's a lower revenue, then the percentage will be higher.

如果收入較低，則百分比會更高。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Lu of Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, hi there.

是的，你好。

Good evening, and thanks for taking the call.

晚上好，感謝您接聽電話。

I've got two questions, one in the longer term, one a little shorter term.

我有兩個問題，一個是長期的，一個是短期的。

The first question is, as we go into 40-nanometers, I think expectations -- well the public comment has been the several of the IDMs are going to stop doing their own process development and outsource completely.

第一個問題是，當我們進入 40 納米時，我認為期望 - 公眾意見是，幾個 IDM 將停止進行自己的工藝開發並完全外包。

Given that we're going into a downturn in '09, does that change at all?

鑑於我們將在 09 年進入低迷期，這種情況會發生變化嗎？

With a little more capacity at the IDMs, do we need to be concerned about that, or is that still pretty firm?

由於 IDM 的容量增加了一點，我們是否需要擔心這一點，還是仍然相當穩固？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Okay, these two questions, 40-nanometer and the downturn, are not connected too much.

好吧，這兩個問題，40納米和低迷，沒有太多的聯繫。

I think most customers who are designing in 40-nanometer or 45-nanometer technologies, of course, are designing new products that are going to come out in the 2009 and 2010 time frame.

我認為大多數使用 40 納米或 45 納米技術進行設計的客戶當然都在設計將在 2009 年和 2010 年推出的新產品。

And these products usually represent their future revenues and profits.

而這些產品通常代表他們未來的收入和利潤。

Very few companies, if at all, will stop or delay those projects.

很少有公司，如果有的話，會停止或推遲這些項目。

As to IDM, again, just as you said, the IDM companies who are engaging with us on 40 or 45-nanometer technology, we expect them to continue moving forward just because of the points I just made.

至於 IDM，正如你所說，與我們在 40 或 45 納米技術上與我們合作的 IDM 公司，我們希望他們繼續前進，只是因為我剛才提出的觀點。

But even with the additional outsourcing from the IDMs, you will still think that the foundries grow a little bit less than the overall semis in '09?

但是，即使從 IDM 獲得額外的外包，您仍然會認為代工廠的增長比 09 年的整體半成品要少一點嗎？

Other than for the capacity that they owned internally, yes, I'd say that there is -- there will be impact.

除了他們內部擁有的能力之外，是的，我會說有 - 會有影響。

For instance in some cases, 90-nanometer or [01C] micro.

例如，在某些情況下，90 納米或 [01C] 微米。

Oh, I see.

我懂了。

So (multiple speakers)

所以（多位發言者）

So 45 is not as sure.

所以 45 不太確定。

Okay, I understand.

好，我懂了。

Second question is for Lora.

第二個問題是給勞拉的。

Quite honestly, I've just been very bad at forecasting the margins.

老實說，我在預測利潤率方面做得很差。

Hypothetically, if revenues were to decline by, say, another 10%, 15% from the fourth quarter levels, where do you think margins would go, gross margins?

假設，如果收入比第四季度的水平再下降 10%、15%，你認為利潤率會去哪裡，毛利率？

This is a complex question.

這是一個複雜的問題。

Actually, depending on what drives the revenue it goes down.

實際上，這取決於導致收入下降的原因。

If the revenue goes down because of utilization, that being the single factor, and I can give you an easy rule of thumb.

如果收入因利用率而下降，那是單一因素，我可以給你一個簡單的經驗法則。

Based on our present financial performance, if utilization goes down by 1 percentage point, the impact to our margin will be roughly 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, but it also depends on which technology drives down the margin.

根據我們目前的財務表現，如果利用率下降 1 個百分點，對我們的利潤率的影響將大約為 0.3 到 0.4 個百分點，但這也取決於哪種技術導致利潤率下降。

So that's the general rule of thumb.

所以這是一般的經驗法則。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Pelayo of HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, if I could follow on a little bit on the margin question.

是的，如果我能在保證金問題上稍微跟進一下。

It seems like the magnitude of the gross margin pressure in the fourth quarter is a little more than just utilization rates would imply, especially given Taiwan dollar depreciation on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

似乎第四季度毛利率壓力的幅度略大於利用率所暗示的，特別是考慮到台幣環比貶值。

Is there anything more behind that, or can we at least rule out the depreciation component impacting?

這背後還有什麼，或者我們至少可以排除折舊部分的影響嗎？

What's your expectation for depreciation and cost of goods sold for the fourth quarter, and then also for 2009?

您對第四季度以及 2009 年的折舊和銷售成本有何預期？

Okay.

好的。

Depreciation in fourth quarter will be slightly, only very slightly, higher than third quarter.

第四季度的貶值幅度將略高於第三季度。

Actually, the main reason drive the margin down in the fourth quarter is that -- the very big reason is the utilization itself.

實際上，導致第四季度利潤率下降的主要原因是——很大的原因是利用率本身。

As I mentioned earlier, the utilization for the fourth quarter is going to be low for both 12-inch and eight-inch.

正如我之前提到的，12 英寸和 8 英寸的第四季度利用率都將很低。

That's actually the main reason.

這其實是主要原因。

Okay.

好的。

And then, one more quick question for you.

然後，再給你一個快速的問題。

Do you think your -- I'm impressed with your cash flow management this quarter.

你認為你的 - 我對本季度的現金流管理印象深刻。

Do you think you can keep your DSOs and inventory turns around the current level, or what would be a good target for the fourth quarter?

您是否認為您可以將您的 DSO 和庫存周轉率保持在當前水平，或者第四季度的一個好的目標是什麼？

It seems to me if you keep them around the same level you're going to generate a significant amount of free cash flow next quarter on the low CapEx number again.

在我看來，如果你將它們保持在同一水平，那麼下個季度你將再次在低資本支出數字上產生大量的自由現金流。

That's probably true.

這可能是真的。

And we do not see any abnormal accounts receivable -- the inventory days and accounts receivable days so far.

我們沒有看到任何異常的應收賬款——到目前為止的庫存天數和應收賬款天數。

So being that as the main assumptions, and the cash flow will still be quite positive in fourth quarter.

因此，作為主要假設，第四季度的現金流仍將是相當積極的。

Okay.

好的。

So DSOs can stay around 45 days or so, you think, next quarter?

所以 DSO 可以在下個季度停留 45 天左右？

Yes, right.

是的，沒錯。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of FBR.

您的下一個問題來自 FBR 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

It's Mehdi Hosseini of FBR, a couple of questions.

我是 FBR 的 Mehdi Hosseini，有幾個問題。

First, going back to your assessment of next year's semi decline, 5% to 10%, is that based on top-down analysis or your conversations with your customers?

首先，回到您對明年半衰期 5% 到 10% 的評估，這是基於自上而下的分析還是您與客戶的對話？

And could you please repeat your commentary on the PC end market?

您能否重複一下您對 PC 終端市場的評論？

I think that it's a combination of the semiconductor companies, the outlook for the fourth quarter.

我認為這是半導體公司的組合，第四季度的前景。

I'm sure you also have seen that most of the companies are guiding much lower than seasonal fourth-quarter business.

我相信你也看到了大多數公司的指導遠低於季節性的第四季度業務。

That, of course, part of it is, which affected that not all the companies have announced their fourth-quarter guidance, part of which is our own estimate.

當然，部分原因是影響並非所有公司都宣布了第四季度的指導，其中一部分是我們自己的估計。

Okay, and a clarification on the PC, I'm just curious as to -- you're highlighting PC end market declining the most, if I heard correctly.

好的，關於 PC 的澄清，我只是好奇——如果我沒聽錯的話，你強調的是 PC 終端市場下降幅度最大。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

Yes, PC market decline?

是的，PC市場下滑？

Yes.

是的。

I'm sorry, can you --?

對不起，你能——嗎？

In your prepared remarks, you highlighted PC end market declining the most.

在您準備好的講話中，您強調 PC 終端市場下降幅度最大。

Is that accurate, or did I hear you right?

這是準確的，還是我沒聽錯？

You mean for the fourth quarter?

你是說第四季？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, for our wafer demand, the PC market declined significantly, I think over 20%.

是的，對於我們的晶圓需求，PC 市場大幅下降，我認為下降了 20% 以上。

And especially if you compare that rate, that decline rate, with the normal seasonal PC growth rate, which usually would be in the teens, low teens, this change is really very significant, being all in the fourth quarter [case].

尤其是如果你將這個速度、那個下降速度與正常的季節性 PC 增長率（通常是十幾歲、十幾歲的青少年）進行比較，這種變化真的非常顯著，都在第四季度 [案例]。

Okay, and my second question has to do with your 45-nanometer capacity.

好的，我的第二個問題與你的 45 納米容量有關。

I think we're all trying to better understand the required CapEx for next year in this kind of an environment, semiconductor industry revenue declining 5% to 10%.

我認為我們都在努力更好地了解在這種環境下明年所需的資本支出，半導體行業收入下降 5% 至 10%。

Is there any way you could provide us a color as to what mix of 45-nanometer could be?

有什麼方法可以告訴我們 45 納米的混合物可能是什麼顏色？

Is that, like, a single-digit as a percentage of revenue or double-digit?

那是一個個位數的收入百分比還是兩位數？

(inaudible).

（聽不清）。

It's probably too early to tell, but we do believe the 45-nanometer is going to ramp significantly in 2009.

現在說可能還為時過早，但我們確實相信 45 納米將在 2009 年大幅增長。

I cannot quantify that degree.

我無法量化那個程度。

I think it will be representing a very significant portion of our revenue.

我認為這將占我們收入的很大一部分。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Bhavin Shah of JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Bhavin Shah。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Oh, thank you, finally.

哦，謝謝你，終於。

Can we go through the previous question?

我們可以回答上一個問題嗎？

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

This is Bhavin?

這是巴文？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I think your first question referred to the non-op items.

我認為您的第一個問題涉及非操作項目。

We want to compare 2001, last cycle, with this cycle.

我們想將上一個週期 2001 年與本週期進行比較。

Yes.

是的。

That was your question?

那是你的問題？

Yes, I think it --.

是的，我認為是——。

Actually -- okay, I'm sorry.

實際上——好吧，我很抱歉。

No, I was just saying that in the 2001, 2002 time frame, the investment losses were pretty meaningful; and that prevented the earnings recovery of the same magnitude as the revenue recovery.

不，我只是說在 2001 年、2002 年的時間範圍內，投資損失是相當有意義的；這阻止了與收入恢復相同幅度的收益恢復。

That was one of the factors.

這是因素之一。

So I'm just asking, yes, how will it play out this time?

所以我只是問，是的，這一次會怎樣？

Okay.

好的。

I think if you compare 2001 cycle and who was categorized as saw investment losses, at that time it was the WaferTech, SSMC and Vanguard.

我想如果你比較 2001 年的周期，誰被歸類為看到投資損失，當時是 WaferTech、SSMC 和 Vanguard。

But nowadays, I can tell you WaferTech and SSMC are doing much better than in 2001; and the same for Vanguard because they have successfully turned it into a foundry business, which is less cyclical.

但是現在，我可以告訴你，WaferTech 和 SSMC 的表現比 2001 年要好得多； Vanguard 也是如此，因為他們已成功地將其轉變為周期性較小的代工業務。

So I would say, in general, this cycle the magnitude of changes in investment losses will be smaller than last cycle.

所以我想說，總的來說，這個週期的投資損失變化幅度會小於上個週期。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Lora.

謝謝你，洛拉。

The second I had was on -- I think you, Rick, mentioned you estimated customer inventory days to be about in mid-50s.

我的第二個是——我想你，Rick，提到你估計客戶的庫存天數大約在 50 年代中期。

Was it at the end of '08 or it's some point in '09?

是在 08 年末還是在 09 年的某個時間點？

And actually, related to that is if you look at the guidance from some of the handset companies, they're still talking about some sort of growth in Q4, sequential growth, maybe, say, 10% or something, whereas you're seeing a pretty steep decline in Q4.

實際上，與此相關的是，如果您查看一些手機公司的指導意見，他們仍在談論第四季度的某種增長，連續增長，也許是 10% 左右，而您看到第四季度大幅下降。

So there's a big delta here between what those companies are thinking about the end markets versus what you're seeing.

因此，這些公司對終端市場的看法與您所看到的之間存在很大差異。

So I'm just wondering how you sort of see that.

所以我只是想知道你是怎麼看的。

Okay.

好的。

Bhavin, it's really difficult to project.

Bhavin，這真的很難預測。

I do not believe the semiconductor companies can slash their days of inventory down to the 50s, whether it's mid or high 50s, in 2008.

我不相信半導體公司可以在 2008 年將他們的庫存天數削減到 50 年代，無論是 50 年代中期還是 50 年代高。

I do not believe that will be the case.

我不相信會是這樣。

Fourth quarter, I know what you're talking about, but I think, for next year, we are -- I believe -- you are also projecting a fairly significant slowdown in the handset shipment in 2009, also.

第四季度，我知道你在說什麼，但我認為，對於明年，我們——我相信——你也預計 2009 年手機出貨量將出現相當顯著的放緩。

Yeah, I guess my question was about Q4 in '08.

是的，我想我的問題是關於 08 年的第四季度。

If handsets don't (inaudible) about some sort of growth sequentially, and you're already seeing such a steep decline, it's either that -- how do you see that?

如果手機沒有（聽不清）連續增長，並且您已經看到如此急劇的下降，那要么是——你怎麼看？

It's a bit of a contradiction, I would say, in the sense that, if the end market is still growing in Q4, which again, we can debate whether it's growing or not, how can you see such a steep decline?

我想說這有點矛盾，從某種意義上說，如果終端市場在第四季度仍然在增長，那麼我們可以再次爭論它是否在增長，你怎麼能看到如此急劇的下降呢？

The only way it can be explained is customers are going to see very, very sharp decline in [new] inventory levels.

可以解釋的唯一方法是客戶將看到[新]庫存水平非常非常急劇下降。

Actually, we did notice that, for instance, Nokia or Samsung are still projecting some growth in fourth quarter.

實際上，我們確實注意到，例如，諾基亞或三星仍然預計第四季度會有一些增長。

On the other hand, if you look at Nokia's inventory number, I believe their third-quarter-end inventory days is higher, not only higher, but quite a bit higher than their inventory days at the end of the second quarter.

另一方面，如果你看諾基亞的庫存數量，我相信他們第三季度末的庫存天數更高，不僅更高，而且比第二季度末的庫存天數高很多。

So they do have build up on certain inventory, and they need to consume.

所以他們確實建立了一定的庫存，他們需要消耗。

Right.

正確的。

So that mid-50s comment you made, was that sometime in 2009?

那麼你在 50 年代中期發表的評論是在 2009 年的某個時候嗎？

Is that --?

就是它 - ？

Yes, we hope -- yes, first-quarter 2009, we hope the inventory level and the days will come down to a low-enough level.

是的，我們希望——是的，2009 年第一季度，我們希望庫存水平和天數能夠降到足夠低的水平。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Heyler of Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美林證券的 Dan Heyler。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

I just had a follow-up question on your comments regarding 200-millimeter expenditures.

我剛剛對您對 200 毫米支出的評論提出了後續問題。

Rick, you'd made a comment in your initial statement that you would be looking at investments there and expanding.

瑞克，您在最初的聲明中發表評論說您將在那裡進行投資並擴大規模。

I think earlier in the year you guys had commented that you were less bullish on eight-inch.

我想今年早些時候你們評論說你們對 8 英寸不那麼看好。

I'm just wondering what has changed there and what areas you plan to invest in to expand that business.

我只是想知道那裡發生了什麼變化以及您計劃投資哪些領域以擴展該業務。

Well Dan, what I said was we will invest from the R&D point of view in the mainstream technology business.

嗯，丹，我說的是我們將從研發的角度投資於主流技術業務。

These are, for instance, the analog technology, mixed-signal, MEMS, et cetera, et cetera.

例如，模擬技術、混合信號、MEMS 等。

However, I did not say that we will invest in mainstream technology capacity.

但是，我並沒有說我們會投資主流技術能力。

We do not plan to either.

我們也不打算這樣做。

I hope I'm communicating clearly.

我希望我能清楚地溝通。

Yes.

是的。

What I was wanting to know is, since those products are produced on eight-inch elsewhere, at competitors, and eight-inch is in abundance, what kind of margins would you expect in terms of getting into the eight-inch business, both mixed-signal, analog and MEMS?

我想知道的是，由於這些產品是在其他地方，在競爭對手那裡生產的 8 英寸產品，而且 8 英寸產品非常豐富，那麼在進入 8 英寸業務方面，你期望什麼樣的利潤，兩者都是混合的-信號、模擬和MEMS？

And how oversupplied that is, if you think the margins in that business will be good or not.

如果您認為該業務的利潤率會好或不好，那麼供過於求的程度如何。

Well there is margin pressure, pricing pressure I would say, but the technology itself is not trivial at all.

好吧，我想說的是利潤壓力，定價壓力，但技術本身並不是微不足道的。

Actually much of those technologies now are in the hands of the IDM companies.

實際上，這些技術中的大部分現在都掌握在 IDM 公司手中。

As far as I can tell, these technologies are not available from foundry companies other than TSMC, in many cases.

據我所知，在許多情況下，這些技術在台積電以外的代工公司中是不可用的。

That represents opportunity.

那代表機會。

We understand the pricing requirements.

我們了解定價要求。

We are also working on our cost.

我們也在研究我們的成本。

So we work on both technology and the cost so that we can get more business in that area.

因此，我們在技術和成本方面都進行了研究，以便我們能夠在該領域獲得更多業務。

We're not talking about the standard logic type of business here.

我們在這裡討論的不是標準邏輯類型的業務。

Okay.

好的。

And we'd see some contribution in that towards these investments for next year.

我們會在明年的這些投資中看到一些貢獻。

So is this something for 2010 or are we thinking more second half of '09?

那麼這是 2010 年的事情，還是我們在 09 年下半年考慮更多？

I think 2010 is probably more likely, although we are already -- I think we will be getting some business starting in 2009.

我認為 2010 年可能更有可能，儘管我們已經 - 我認為我們將在 2009 年開始獲得一些業務。

But unfortunately, 2009 being such a challenging year, it will be more difficult to pan out.

但不幸的是，2009 年是充滿挑戰的一年，要取得成功將更加困難。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Sure.

當然。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Pelayo of HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, Rick, I'm curious, with such a strong pullback in the fourth quarter, what are you thinking about first-quarter revenue?

是的，瑞克，我很好奇，第四季度出現如此強勁的回調，您對第一季度的收入有何看法？

Does it need to be down significantly more than seasonal?

它是否需要比季節性下降更多？

What's the probability we can be setting up for another 20%-plus decline in the first quarter?

我們可以在第一季度再次下跌 20% 以上的概率是多少？

Steve, you know right now we do not comment on the first quarter, especially TSMC numbers.

史蒂夫，你知道現在我們不對第一季度發表評論，尤其是台積電的數據。

However, we have shared our view on 2009, overall, with you at this stage.

然而，我們在這個階段與大家分享了我們對 2009 年的總體看法。

And we had a discussion earlier with Bhavin and other people on the inventory situation.

我們之前與 Bhavin 和其他人就庫存情況進行了討論。

I think I also said, in the afternoon, the inventory paring is now conducted aggressively by both semiconductor companies and systems companies, and this inventory paring will take some time, and I believe that will go into the first quarter of 2009.

我想我也說過，現在半導體公司和系統公司都在積極進行庫存削減，這個庫存削減需要一段時間，我相信會持續到2009年第一季度。

Okay, and then two final quick questions.

好的，然後是兩個最後的快速問題。

I didn't get an answer on my earlier question on your expectations for 2009 depreciation.

我之前關於您對 2009 年貶值的預期的問題沒有得到答案。

And then, the last question is expectations for continued stock repurchases here, similar amounts like you did in third quarter, or what are your thoughts going forward?

然後，最後一個問題是對這裡持續股票回購的預期，與您在第三季度所做的類似數量，或者您對未來的想法是什麼？

Okay.

好的。

On depreciation in 2009, although we have not finalized the CapEx, although we did indicate it will drop around 20% from this year, with that in mind, I think the depreciation for 2009 will increase only very slightly versus 2008.

關於 2009 年的折舊，雖然我們還沒有最終確定資本支出，但我們確實表示它將比今年下降 20% 左右，考慮到這一點，我認為 2009 年的折舊將僅比 2008 年略有增加。

Okay, still increases, okay.

好吧，還是增加了，好吧。

Yes, but in very small increase, I would say 2% to 3% at most, okay?

是的，但是在很小的增長中，我會說最多 2% 到 3%，好嗎？

On share buyback, your second question --?

關於股票回購，你的第二個問題——？

Correct.

正確的。

And actually we learned from the market, and we feel, ourself, too, returning cash to the shareholder has two ways -- number one, pay out cash dividend; number two, doing buyback.

而實際上我們從市場上了解到，我們自己也覺得，將現金返還給股東有兩種方式——第一，派發現金股利；第二，做回購。

We have done buyback, and with a very good reason or major reasons to help it to settle down this year so they don't affect the share price too much.

我們已經進行了回購，並且有一個很好的理由或主要原因來幫助它在今年穩定下來，這樣它們就不會對股價造成太大影響。

As to absorb the (inaudible) overhang, that was the main purpose for the past buyback.

至於吸收（聽不清）過剩，這是過去回購的主要目的。

With the current situations, and we want to go back to what we originally believed, which is the cash dividend is the most important than share buyback.

在目前的情況下，我們想回到我們最初認為的，即現金分紅比股票回購最重要。

So we will preserve the -- retain (inaudible) mostly for the cash dividend as our number one priority.

因此，我們將保留——主要用於現金股息的保留（聽不清）作為我們的第一要務。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，夠公平的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Pranab Sarmah of Daiwa Securities.

您的下一個問題來自大和證券的 Pranab Sarmah。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Lora, regarding on your payback point, I guess, you were also limited by the retained earning.

Lora，關於你的回報點，我想，你也受到留存收益的限制。

Are you guys going to lobby with the Taiwan government to change some of those rules so that you can give all the excess cash back to the shareholder?

你們會遊說台灣政府改變其中的一些規則，以便將所有多餘的現金返還給股東嗎？

Pranab, I'm glad you mentioned that again because every quarter you talk to me like this.

Pranab，我很高興你再次提到這一點，因為你每個季度都這樣跟我說話。

Actually, it is true.

事實上，這是真的。

The paying back cash to shareholder will be constrained by the capability of how much return on earnings we generated.

向股東償還現金將受到我們產生多少收益回報的能力的限制。

We have been communicating with the [government of issue] on how to relax that.

我們一直在與[政府]就如何放鬆這一點進行溝通。

But so far, they have not been able to change their decision.

但到目前為止，他們還無法改變他們的決定。

I think, as Rick just mentioned, 2009 we committed to pay TWD3.00, no problem.

我認為，正如 Rick 剛才提到的，2009 年我們承諾支付 TWD3.00，沒問題。

And 2010, depending on 2009's profitability, and still have time to work on that.

而 2010 年，取決於 2009 年的盈利能力，還有時間去努力。

The regulation environment may also change, but we don't know.

監管環境也可能發生變化，但我們不知道。

We have no guarantee for that.

我們對此沒有任何保證。

But you have to trust me.

但你必須相信我。

We will continue to work on that.

我們將繼續努力。

Okay.

好的。

And the next one, could I make a little bit of a comment about the customer rate cut, order rate?

下一個，我可以對客戶降價，訂單率發表一點評論嗎？

Because I think that was very severe sometime in the mid of second quarter.

因為我認為這在第二季度中期的某個時候非常嚴重。

Are you seeing that similar rate of order cut, or you are seeing a little bit of stability at this point?

您是否看到類似的訂單削減率，或者此時您看到了一點穩定性？

Well Pranab, I think the orders are still -- I should say have not stabilized.

好吧，Pranab，我認為訂單仍然 - 我應該說還沒有穩定下來。

I think people are still paring their inventory.

我認為人們仍在削減庫存。

I think that until we and the customers, semiconductor companies, have a more clear view as to the holiday season sellthrough, then we'll have a more stable environment.

我認為，直到我們和客戶、半導體公司對假期銷售量有更清晰的認識，我們才會有一個更穩定的環境。

Talking on the inventory side, you have just mentioned a very nice point, like system and semiconductors guys are now pairing together to cut inventory.

談到庫存方面，你剛才提到了一個非常好的觀點，比如係統和半導體的傢伙現在正在配對以減少庫存。

Do you foresee that trend will continue forward like systems semiconductor, even the semiconductor foundries like you, clearly has to pair together to cut down the inventory on the whole supply chain at some point?

您是否預見到這種趨勢會像系統半導體一樣繼續向前發展，即使是像您這樣的半導體代工廠，顯然也必須在某個時候聯合起來削減整個供應鏈的庫存？

Pranab, can you repeat your question again?

Pranab，你能再重複一遍你的問題嗎？

Actually, now, what is happening on the industry's semiconductor makers, as well as system makers, are pairing together to bring down their whole channel inventory.

實際上，現在，該行業的半導體製造商以及系統製造商正在聯手降低他們的整個渠道庫存。

And going forward, do you see a possibility, along with them, like the foundry makers or other semiconductor makers, they also pair up -- like three levels will pair up to bring down the system channel inventory even at a lower level than where we are now.

展望未來，你是否看到了一種可能性，與他們一起，像代工製造商或其他半導體製造商一樣，他們也會結對——就像三個層次結對，以降低系統渠道庫存，即使水平低於我們的水平現在。

Well Pranab, I believe the way this is going the inventory will go down to a quite low level sometime in the first quarter of next year.

Pranab，我相信按照這種方式，庫存將在明年第一季度的某個時候降至相當低的水平。

We are, of course, part of that.

我們當然是其中的一部分。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, I want to ask one more clarification question on the dividend.

是的，我想再問一個關於股息的澄清問題。

If your earnings were to fall, say, below the TWD3.00 in 2009, could you pay out more than 90% of prior-year earnings and, say, tap into the legal reserve, or would you prepared to do that to protect that dividend even the following year?

例如，如果您的收入在 2009 年跌至 3.00 新台幣以下，您是否可以支付上一年收入的 90% 以上，例如，動用法定儲備金，或者您是否準備這樣做來保護它？甚至第二年的股息？

Yes, Randy, the answer to your question is yes.

是的，蘭迪，你的問題的答案是肯定的。

Retained earnings decide how much dividend you can pay out, and we can use the prior-year retained earning, too.

留存收益決定了您可以支付多少股息，我們也可以使用上一年的留存收益。

So we may -- in some years, I would say 80% is the minimum.

所以我們可能——在某些年份，我會說 80% 是最低限度。

In some year, we certainly can go above that.

在某一年，我們當然可以超越這一點。

Okay.

好的。

And you previously have talked about a minimum one-quarter cash and CapEx that you want to keep.

您之前曾談到您希望保留的至少四分之一現金和資本支出。

With the tightening credit environment and downturn, do you take that up in terms of a minimum cash that you want to maintain as a target level?

在信貸環境收緊和經濟低迷的情況下，您是否將其作為您希望維持在目標水平的最低現金？

Are you asking the level of the cash to run the business, will that go up when the business goes into the downturn?

您是在問經營業務的現金水平，當業務陷入低迷時，現金水平會上升嗎？

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

I think the answer should be opposite.

我認為答案應該是相反的。

When businesses become smaller, the level for operating cash will be smaller.

當企業變小時，經營現金的水平會變小。

Okay.

好的。

So it's still about a quarter of cash and CapEx?

所以它仍然是大約四分之一的現金和資本支出？

Right.

正確的。

Okay, and then one last question on -- just if you could talk a little bit more about the foundry versus the backend.

好的，然後是最後一個問題——如果你能多談談代工廠與後端的問題。

We have SPEL and Amcor guiding a little bit more moderate decline.

我們有 SPEL 和 Amcor 指導稍微溫和的下降。

Maybe if you could talk about some of the difference that you're seeing foundry-wise versus the backend, or if you think it's just a timing issue or a wafer bank issue.

也許您可以談談您在代工方面與後端所看到的一些差異，或者您認為這只是時間問題或晶圓庫問題。

Randy, I don't really have that much insight.

蘭迪，我真的沒有那麼多洞察力。

The one that I can think of is the cycle time difference, the lead time.

我能想到的一個是周期時間差異，即交貨時間。

I think the lead time for the backend is substantially shorter, and so that's one thing I can observe.

我認為後端的交貨時間要短得多，所以這是我可以觀察到的一件事。

But I'm not sure I have better insight for you.

但我不確定我對你有更好的了解。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Operator, in the interest of time, we will allow one last caller.

接線員，為了節省時間，我們將允許最後一位來電者。

Our final question will come from the line of Bhavin Shah of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Bhavin Shah。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, I guess in terms of CapEx -- and one of my questions was on prices, actually.

是的，我想就資本支出而言——實際上，我的問題之一是關於價格。

You earlier laid out the guidance for the price, your pricing strategy.

您之前製定了價格指南，您的定價策略。

And one of the -- there were multiple reasons why you had a particular price strategy in mind.

其中之一 - 你有一個特定的價格策略有多種原因。

And one of them was the cost pressure that you are facing in light of the inflationary environment.

其中之一是您在通脹環境下面臨的成本壓力。

Now clearly, we are in a very different environment, as far as inflation goes.

現在很明顯，就通貨膨脹而言，我們處於一個非常不同的環境中。

Some of the cost pressures must have reversed for you.

一些成本壓力一定已經為您逆轉了。

So how does that factor into your pricing strategy?

那麼，這對您的定價策略有何影響？

Bhavin, as I said earlier, we're committed to achieving our target structure profitability.

Bhavin，正如我之前所說，我們致力於實現我們的目標結構盈利能力。

And this profitability is comprised of both pricing and cost.

這種盈利能力包括定價和成本。

We also stated several times before that we always aim to have a pricing decline rate somewhat lower than the cost decline rate.

我們之前也多次說過，我們的目標是定價下降率略低於成本下降率。

So these are the two factors we look into and we make a tradeoff, we balance.

所以這是我們研究的兩個因素，我們做出權衡，我們平衡。

And so if we have an improved cost structure, we will adjust ourselves from a business point of view.

因此，如果我們的成本結構得到改善，我們將從業務角度進行調整。

That's how we look at it.

這就是我們看待它的方式。

Okay.

好的。

Is it fair to say that the cost pressures -- you're going to see some benefit from the cost side, from the input costs, raw material and so on?

公平地說，成本壓力——你會從成本方面、投入成本、原材料等方面看到一些好處嗎？

I think it varies, Bhavin.

我認為它會有所不同，Bhavin。

It's not as straightforward.

它不是那麼簡單。

I wish they were, but, for instance, in Taiwan, utility costs have gone up, and it doesn't seem to come down even with the severe down of the oil price.

我希望他們是，但是，例如，在台灣，公用事業成本上升了，即使油價大幅下跌，它似乎也沒有下降。

But the utility is run by the state.

但該實用程序由國家運行。

There's not much we can do.

我們能做的不多。

But on the other hand, there're some other input prices, as you said, coming down because of the booting up of the market.

但另一方面，正如你所說，由於市場的啟動，還有一些其他的投入價格下降。

So again, for us, no matter what, we will work in any way we can to lower our costs so that we can have a much stronger competitive edge, also so that we can make our reasonable return of the investment.

因此，對於我們來說，無論如何，我們將盡一切努力降低成本，以便我們能夠擁有更強大的競爭優勢，也使我們能夠獲得合理的投資回報。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Thank you, Bhavin.

謝謝你，巴文。

Well, this concludes our question and answer session.

好了，我們的問答環節到此結束。

Operator, please proceed.

接線員，請繼續。

Before we conclude TSMC's Third-Quarter 2008 Results Webcast Conference Call today, please be advised that the replay of the conference call will only be accessible through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們今天結束台積電 2008 年第三季度網絡廣播電話會議之前，請注意，電話會議的重播只能通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 訪問。

Thank you all.

謝謝你們。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。

Good day.

再會。