台積電 ADR (TSM) 2004 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's fourth quarter 2004 results webcast conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2004 年第四季業績網路廣播電話會議。

Today's event is chaired by Ms. Lora Ho, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Dr. Rick Tsai, President and Chief Operating Officer.

今天的活動由副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士和總裁兼營運長 Rick Tsai 博士主持。

This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.TSMC.com and only in audio mode.

本次電話會議透過台積電網站 www.TSMC.com 進行網路直播，且僅以音訊模式進行。

Your dial-in lines are also in listen-only mode.

您的撥入線路也處於僅監聽模式。

At the conclusion of the management presentation, we will be opening the floor for questions.

在管理層演講結束時，我們將開始提問。

At that time, further instructions will be provided as to the procedure to follow if you would like to ask any questions.

屆時，如果您想提出任何問題，我們將提供有關應遵循的程序的進一步說明。

Please be advised for those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.TSMC.com.

請尚未獲得新聞稿副本的與會者註意，您可以從台積電網站 www.TSMC.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

Once again, the URL is www.TSMC.com.

URL 再次為 www.TSMC.com。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr. Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations for the cautionary statement before the main presentation by Ms. Ho and Dr. Rick Tsai.

現在我想請台積電投資者關係主管 Elizabeth Sun 博士在何女士和 Rick Tsai 博士進行主要演講之前發表警告性聲明。

Good morning and good evening to all participants.

所有參與者早上好，晚上好。

This is Elizabeth Sun Head of Investor Relations for TSMC.

我是台積電投資者關係主管 Elizabeth Sun。

Before we begin, I would like to state that management's comments about TSMC's current expectations made during this conference call are forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想聲明，管理層在本次電話會議中對台積電當前預期的評論屬於前瞻性陳述，存在重大風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's annual report on form 20-F, filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on May 28, 2004, and such other documents as TSMC may file with or submit to the SEC from time to time, Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

有關可能導致實際結果與台積電前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的信息，可在台積電於 2004 年 5 月 28 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及其他此類報告中找到。台積電可能不時向美國證券交易委員會提交或提交的文件，除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

And now, I would like to turn the conference call over to to Ms. Lora Ho, our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在，我想將電話會議轉交給我們的副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士。

Good morning and good evening.

早安，晚上好。

Welcome to TSMC's fourth quarter conference call.

歡迎參加台積電第四季電話會議。

First of all, I would like to say an early hello to everyone, that means happy Chinese New Year and wish you many happy returns in the Year of the Rooster.

首先，我提前向大家問好，祝大家新春快樂，雞年吉祥。

For the semiconductor business, 2004 has seen a good year in which TSMC achieved and propelled revenue and profits.

對半導體業務來說，2004年是台積電實現營收和利潤成長的好年。

We have prepared some slides for you to look at as you listen to the call.

我們準備了一些投影片供您在收聽電話會議時觀看。

These slides are available on TSMC's website.

這些幻燈片可在台積電的網站上找到。

During the call, I will refer to the slides by their individual numbers.

在通話過程中，我將透過幻燈片的單獨編號來引用它們。

To start with, let's take a look at some highlights of our fourth quarter 2004 operating results.

首先，讓我們來看看 2004 年第四季營運表現的一些亮點。

This figures are shown on slide number four.

這些數字顯示在第四張投影片上。

As expected, the quarter four results were somewhat lower than the previous quarter.

如預期，第四季業績略低於上一季。

Our Q4 revenue was NT$63.9 billion, 8 percent lower than that of third quarter.

第四季營收為新台幣 639 億元，較第三季下降 8%。

Net income after tax totaled NT$22.2 billion.

稅後淨利總計新台幣222億元。

Meanwhile, earnings per share reached NT$0.96.

同時，每股收益達到新台幣0.96元。

TSMC ended the fourth quarter with 118.5 billion in cash and short-term investment, shareholder equity reached NT$399 billion.

台積電第四季末現金及短期投資1,185億，股東權益達新台幣3,990億元。

During the fourth quarter, we shipped a total of 1.22 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, 8.5 percent lower than 1.33 million achieved in Q3 '04.

第四季度，我們總共出貨了122萬片8吋等效晶圓，比04年第三季的133萬片減少了8.5%。

Our overall utilization rate, which included TSMC fab, wafer tax and SSMC was 88 percent for the fourth quarter.

第四季我們的整體利用率（包括台積電晶圓廠、晶圓稅和 SSMC）為 88%。

ROE for the quarter was 22.8 percent, about 8 percent lower than the 30.6 percent achieved in Q3.

本季 ROE 為 22.8%，比第三季的 30.6% 低約 8 個百分點。

But still 3 percent higher than that of Q4 2003.

但仍比 2003 年第四季高出 3%。

Let's go to slide number 5.

讓我們來看第 5 張投影片。

Compare with the third quarter this year, revenue declined by 8 percent.

與今年第三季相比，營收下降了8%。

Despite overall utilization rate dropped from 103 percent in the previous quarter to 88 percent this quarter, our growth margins still reached 42.5 percent, due to a continuous yield improvement for our 12-inch fab [indiscernible] for technology products.

儘管整體利用率從上一季的 103% 下降到本季的 88%，但由於我們的 12 吋晶圓廠 [音訊不清晰] 技術產品的良率不斷提高，我們的成長率仍達到 42.5%。

Operating expenses were slightly higher than that of last quarter, primarily due to a continuous investment over 65 nanometer development, the percentage of total net sales.

營運支出略高於上季，主要是由於持續投資超過65奈米開發，佔總淨銷售額的百分比。

Operating expenses took up 9.6 percent for the quarter, slightly higher than the 8.6 percent achieved in the previous quarter.

本季營運費用佔 9.6%，略高於上一季的 8.6%。

The nonoperating items for the quarter was an income of NT$500 million lower than the previous quarter mainly due to lower evaluation loses over short-term investments in marketable securities and and the last royal income of Tru[ph].

本季非經營性收入較上季減少新台幣5億元，主要係有價證券短期投資評估損失減少及Tru[ph]上期皇室收入所致。

Partially offset by the highest foreign tax -- foreign exchange gain from hedging activities.

部分被最高的外國稅收－對沖活動的外匯收益所抵銷。

With the economy slowing down, utilization rate for wafer SSMC declined.

隨著經濟放緩，晶圓SSMC利用率下降。

Along with increased expenses at TSMC Shanghai, our investment income decreased by 56 percent to NT$0.6 billion in this quarter.

隨著上海台積電費用的增加，本季的投資收益下降了 56％，為新台幣 6 億元。

Net income before tax reached 32.1 billion, income after tax came to 22.2 billion.

稅前淨利達321億，稅後收入達222億。

Both were 21 percent down in comparison to the previous quarters, while EPS also decreased 21 percent to NT$0.90 per share.

兩者較前季均下跌 21%，每股 EPS 也下跌 21%，至新台幣 0.90 元。

You can see from slide number 6, that on a year-over-year basis, with increased wafer shipments and higher ASP properly affected by unfavorable exchange rate, our revenue increased by 11 percent and gross margin was 3 percent higher than Q4 2003.

從第6 張投影片中可以看到，與去年同期相比，由於不利匯率的影響，晶圓出貨量增加，平均售價提高，我們的營收成長了11%，毛利率比2003 年第四季度高出3%。

It is particularly worth noting that our revenue waiting for our advanced technology products went from 18 percent in 2003 up to 36 percent this year.

特別值得注意的是，我們等待先進技術產品的營收從2003年的18%上升到今年的36%。

We're presenting significant break through in production efficiency for our 12-inch fab.

我們的 12 吋晶圓廠在生產效率方面取得了重大突破。

Total operating expenses went up marginally.

總營運費用略有上升。

However, as a percentage of net sales, operating expense was 9.6 percent, lower that the 10.5 percent for Q4 2003.

然而，營業費用佔淨銷售額的百分比為 9.6%，低於 2003 年第四季的 10.5%。

Some operating items went from a loss of 0.2 billion to a gain of 0.5 billion, mostly due to higher interest income and lower hedging costs.

部分經營項目由虧損2億轉為獲利5億，主要是因為利息收入增加及避險成本降低。

Our net investment income for this quarter was lower than that of Q4 '03.

我們本季的淨投資收益低於 03 年第四季。

There was significant capital gain from a disposal of venture capital equity investment in Q4 last year.

去年第四季度，出售創投股權投資帶來了可觀的資本利得。

This year, despite the revenue improvements from wafer tax, SSMC and Vanguard, taking away TSMC Shanghai expenses.

今年，儘管晶圓稅帶來收入改善，但SSMC和Vanguard卻拿走了台積電上海的開支。

Total net investment income was still down NT$5.5 million[ph].

總投資淨收益仍減少新台幣550萬元[ph]。

Pre-tax income was 22.1 billion, 26 percent over the 17.6 billion achieved in Q4 last year.

稅前收入為221億，比去年第四季的176億成長26%。

As our capital expenditures this year was much higher than last year, so was the related tax credit revenue.

由於今年我們的資本支出遠高於去年，因此相關的稅收抵免收入也遠高於去年。

Our profit after-tax was up 39 percent than that of Q4 '03.

我們的稅後利潤比 03 年第四季成長了 39%。

EPS also increased 40 percent from $0.68 per share to $0.96 per share.

EPS 也成長了 40%，從每股 0.68 美元增至每股 0.96 美元。

The full year income statement comparison in slide number 7 shows TSMC achieving significant growth in the year 2004.

第7張投影片中的全年損益表比較顯示，台積電在2004年取得了顯著的成長。

Due to higher quality of wafers shipped partially offset by negative exchange rate, our revenue for full year 2004 was a record high of 256 billion, 27 percent higher than that of 2003.

由於出貨的晶圓品質提高，部分被負匯率所抵消，我們2004年全年的收入創下了2,560億美元的歷史新高，比2003年增長了27%。

In the U.S. dollar terms, the growth rate actually reached 30.3 percent.

以美元計算，成長率實際上達到了30.3%。

Gross margin was 7 percent -- was up 7 percent in comparison to 2003.

毛利率為 7%——比 2003 年提高了 7%。

Operating expenses also increased.

營運費用也有所增加。

By a percentage of sales, it was down from 10 percent in 2003 to 9 percent in 2004.

以銷售額百分比計算，從 2003 年的 10% 下降到 2004 年的 9%。

Our operating items were an income of 0.9 billion, rather than a loss of 2.4 billion in 2003.

我們的經營項目由2003年的虧損24億轉變為收入9億。

Investment income also increased more than 5 fold to NT$4 billion for the year 2004.

2004年投資收益也增加了5倍多，達到新台幣40億元。

Net income was up 95 percent from 2003, while EPS almost doubled.

淨利潤比 2003 年增長了 95%，而每股收益幾乎翻了一番。

All this again demonstrated TSMC's ability to adopt the economical cycle and our superior operating efficiencies.

這一切再次證明了台積電採用經濟循環的能力和卓越的營運效率。

Slide number 8 will provide you with a few important items from TSMC's balance sheet and some key financial ratios.

第 8 號投影片將為您提供台積電資產負債表中的一些重要項目以及一些關鍵的財務比率。

First of all, our cash and short-term investments for the quarter was $118.5 billion, which is 5.9 billion lower than the previous quarter position of 124.4 billion.

首先，我們本季的現金和短期投資為 1,185 億美元，比上一季的 1,244 億美元減少了 59 億美元。

Accounts receivable balance got reduced from 33.4 billion to 27.2 billion.

應收帳款餘額從334億減少到272億。

Primarily reflect lower sales activities.

主要反映銷售活動減少。

Accounts receivable turnover was 45 days.

應收帳款週轉天數為45天。

Current liability at the end of the quarter was 60.6 billion, 16.4 billion lower than 44.2 billion at the end of Q3.

本季末的流動負債為 606 億，比第三季末的 442 億減少 164 億。

The difference was many increased payables to equipment vendors and the reclassification of some funds payable from an low term to current.

差異在於對設備供應商的應付款項增加了許多，並將一些應付款項從低期限重新分類為流動資金。

There was A-2 90 nanometer to move in at our 12-inch fab in Q4.

第四季度，我們的 12 吋晶圓廠有 A-2 90 奈米晶片搬入。

We anticipating of strong demand over our advanced technology products.

我們預計對我們的先進技術產品的強勁需求。

Inventory-wise, our Q4 inventory came to 14.2 billion, this is 1.6 billion higher than that of previous quarters, many due to a increased in higher value-added technology inventories as our 12-inch fab ramping up.

庫存方面，第四季庫存達到 142 億顆，比前幾季增加了 16 億顆，這主要是由於我們的 12 吋晶圓廠投產導致高附加價值技術庫存增加。

Overall inventory turnover days was 41 days for the fourth quarter.

第四季整體庫存週轉天數為 41 天。

Current ratio for the quarter was 2.9 times.

本季的流動比率為2.9倍。

TSMC continued to maintain a very solid balance sheet.

台積電繼續保持非常穩健的資產負債表。

Slide number 9 summarized TSMC's cash flow for the quarter.

第 9 號投影片總結了台積電本季的現金流。

During the fourth quarter, with net profit of NT$22.2 billion and depreciation amortization of 16.6 billion, cash flow generated from operating activities totaled 36.7 billion.

第四季淨利222億元，折舊攤提166億元，經營活動現金流367億元。

On the investment activity front, our capital expenditures for Q4 increased to 20.5 billion which brought our capital expenditures for the whole year 2004 to US$2.4 billion as projected.

在投資活動方面，我們第四季的資本支出增加到205億美元，這使得我們2004年全年的資本支出達到預期的24億美元。

In terms of cash investments, we have increased our short-term investments by 6.9 billion in money market funds.

現金投資方面，新增貨幣市場基金短期投資69億元。

Long-term investments also went up by NT$17 billion.

長期投資亦增加新台幣170億元。

Including further investment in bonds and a structured note by NT14 billion and 2.9 billion capital injection to TSMC Shanghai.

包括進一步投資債券及結構性票據140億元，以及向台積電上海注資29億元。

In respect of financing activities, NT$5 billion worth of corporate bonds were redeemed in the quarter.

融資活動方面，本季共贖回新台幣50億元公司債。

Overall speaking, our cash balance reduced by 12.8 billion for the quarter, cash and short-term investment together was also down by 5.9 billion.

整體而言，本季我們的現金餘額減少了128億，現金和短期投資合計也減少了59億。

You can see in slide number 10 that all of our US$2.4 billion capital expenditures for 2004, US$2.3 billion were for TSMC itself, US$72 million for wafer tax, and 69 million for TSMC Shanghai.

你可以在第10張投影片中看到，我們2004年的資本支出為24億美元，其中23億美元用於台積電本身，7,200萬美元用於晶圓稅，6,900萬美元用於台積電上海。

About 75 percent of the 2.4 billion were spent building up capacity for 12-inch fab.

24億美元中約75%用於建造12吋晶圓廠產能。

Now, let us look at some business analysis.

現在，讓我們來看看一些業務分析。

Slide number 11 provides a quick look at our revenue break down by technology.

第 11 號投影片讓我們快速了解了我們按技術劃分的收入細分。

Despite market slowing down in Q4, TSMC continued to achieve a significant growth in our advanced technology segment.

儘管第四季市場放緩，台積電在先進技術領域仍持續實現顯著成長。

I'm pleased to announce that our 90 nanometer technology has started go on production as scheduled.

我很高興地宣布，我們的90奈米技術已經按計劃開始投產。

We should start to gain importance in our sales turnover in the next several quarters.

在接下來的幾個季度中，我們應該開始重視銷售營業額。

You can see clearly from the chart that the percentage of the advanced technology has reached 36 percent in the fourth quarter as opposed to 30 percent in quarter 3.

從圖表中可以清楚地看到，第四季先進技術的比例已達到 36%，而第三季為 30%。

We also anticipate this upward trend to continue throughout advanced technology in the foreseeable future.

我們也預計，在可預見的未來，這種上升趨勢將在整個先進技術中持續下去。

Slide number 12 provides a view by application.

第 12 號投影片提供了按應用程式劃分的檢視。

Due to a seasonal demand, computer sales revenue contributed to 35 percent of total revenue, 4 percentage points up for that of last quarter.

由於季節性需求，電腦銷售收入佔總收入的35%，比上季上升4個百分點。

The increases coming from the chip set, graphics, and ten disk driver and heartly[ph] to the driver segment.

成長來自晶片組、顯示卡和十個磁碟驅動程序，尤其是驅動程式部分。

Communications revenue was down 1 percent to 41 percent due to inventory adjustments in which wireline suffered most.

由於庫存調整，其中有線業務受到的影響最大，通訊收入下降了 1% 至 41%。

The consumer segment declined by 4 percent and it was down to a 16 percent with the fuel major segment showing decline.

消費領域下降了 4%，其中燃料主要領域下降了 16%。

However, we also see hand-held games and digital cameras making positive progress.

然而，我們也看到手持遊戲和數位相機取得了積極的進展。

Slide number 13 shows the geographical breakdown of our revenue.

第 13 號投影片顯示了我們收入的地理分佈。

Revenue from North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Japan account for 75 percent, 10 percent, 7 percent and 8 percent of our total revenues for the fourth quarter respectively.

來自北美、亞太地區、歐洲和日本的營收分別占我們第四季總營收的75%、10%、7%和8%。

Compared to the last quarter, Japan went up slightly while Asia-Pacific came down a little.

與上季相比，日本略有上升，而亞太地區略有下降。

Overall speaking there was no major changes.

整體來說沒有什麼大的變化。

Slide number 14 provides a revenue breakdown by customer types.

第 14 號投影片提供了按客戶類型劃分的收入細分。

In the fourth quarter, revenue generated from fabless customers accounted for 66 percent of total sales.

第四季度，來自無晶圓廠客戶的營收佔總銷售額的66%。

And IDM 33 percent as IDM continue to outsource even advanced technology sector, while fabless companies undertook inventory adjustment.

而IDM則佔33%，因為IDM繼續外包甚至先進的技術部門，而無晶圓廠公司則進行了庫存調整。

System customer accounts for 1 percent of our total revenue.

系統客戶占我們總收入的1%。

Now, let's move on to slide number 15.

現在，讓我們繼續看第 15 張投影片。

This slide shows our fab transition and ASP trends.

這張投影片展示了我們的晶圓廠轉型和 ASP 趨勢。

ASP transition rate for the fourth quarter slipped to 88 percent.

第四季的 ASP 轉換率下滑至 88%。

As a matter of fact, in October '04, we were projecting a new transition rate of between 84 to 86 percent.

事實上，2004 年 10 月，我們預期新的轉換率將達到 84% 至 86%。

The result actually turned out better.

結果實際上效果更好。

ASP increased by 1.7 percent this quarter, mainly due to better product mix moving forward -- moving toward advanced technologies.

本季平均售價成長了 1.7%，主要是由於產品組合不斷改善——朝向先進技術發展。

Let's turn to slide number 16.

讓我們來看第 16 張投影片。

This slide summarizes our historic capacity by fab.

這張投影片總結了我們晶圓廠的歷史產能。

Our total capacity during the fourth quarter was 1.32 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, 4.8 percent up from the Q3 actual.

第四季總產能為132萬片8吋等效晶圓，較第三季實際成長4.8%。

Due mainly to increasing our 12-inch fabs.

主要是由於我們增加了12吋晶圓廠。

For first quarter of 2005, we expect our capacity to continue increase, Fab 12 and Fab 14 with 8-inch fab undertaking annual maintenance.

對於2005年第一季度，我們預計我們的產能將繼續增加，Fab 12和Fab 14以及8吋晶圓廠將進行年度維護。

Total capacity will remain around 1.32 billion 8-inch equivalent wafers.

總產能將維持在13.2億片8吋等效晶圓左右。

Our projection capacity for year 2005 will be 5.95 million pieces of 8 equivalent wafers.

我們預計2005年的產能將是595萬片8等效晶圓。

This is 24 percent higher than the 2004 capacity.

這比 2004 年的產能高出 24%。

The last slide, number 17, provides a recap of the major events during the fourth quarter.

最後一張投影片（第 17 號）回顧了第四季的主要事件。

I will leave that for your own reference.

我將其留給您自己參考。

Based on the current business outlook, management's expectations for the first quarter 2005 performance are on the following.

根據目前的業務前景，管理階層對 2005 年第一季業績的預期如下。

Wafer shipments to decrease by a single digit percentage point sequentially.

晶圓出貨量較上月下降個位數百分點。

Overall utilization rate to be about 78 percent.

總體利用率約為78%。

Gross profit margin to be in the range of 38 to 40 percent.

毛利率在38%至40%之間。

ASP to remain about the same sequentially. 2005 capital expenditures to be in the range of US$2.5 to 2.7 billion.

ASP 繼續保持大致相同。 2005 年資本支出將在250 至27 億美元之間。

This ends up my presentation today.

我今天的演講到此結束。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Operator, please open the floor for questions.

接線員，請開放提問。

At this time, we will open the floor for questions.

現在，我們將開始提問。

If you would like to ask a question, please press star then the number 1 on your telephone keypad now.

如果您想提問，請立即按下電話鍵盤上的星號，然後按數字 1。

Questions will be taken in the order in which they are received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。

If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, please press star then the number 2 on your telephone keypad.

如果您在任何時候想將自己從提問佇列中刪除，請按電話鍵盤上的星號，然後按數字 2。

Please limit your questions to 2 at a time with one follow-up to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions to the management members.

請將您的問題限制為每次 2 個，並進行一次跟進，以便所有參與者都有機會向管理人員提問。

Your first question comes from Bhavin Shah from J.P.

你的第一個問題來自 J.P. 的 Bhavin Shah。

Morgan Securities.

摩根證券。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Yes, Lora, I wanted to focus on the CapEx, what is capacity.

是的，Lora，我想關注資本支出，什麼是容量。

In -- for the 2004 the CapEx dollars, is the all -- all the capacity is related to those dollars already installed?

就 2004 年的資本支出而言，所有容量是否都與已安裝的美元有關？

And shown as operational?

並顯示為可操作？

It is.

這是。

Right.

正確的。

So could you elaborate on how much capacity was -- can be attributed to the $2.4 billion or if you have to exclude Shanghai and so on.

那麼您能否詳細說明一下，24 億美元的產能有多少，或者是否必須排除上海等。

What is the attributable capacity to that CapEx number in '04?

04 年該資本支出數字的歸屬能力是多少？

Let' see.

讓我們看看。

Bhavin, you're asking very detailed questions.

Bhavin，你問了非常詳細的問題。

A total of 2004 capacity was 4.78 billion pieces.

2004年總產能為47.8億隻。

The kpcs for 2004, I think, all of them are being installed in the first quarter 2005.

我認為 2004 年的克伯制度全部都在 2005 年第一季安裝。

So maybe within 2 months at the 2.4 has been reflected totally in all capacity.

所以也許在2.4的2個月內已經完全體現了所有能力。

I see.

我懂了。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe not too specific, but in general the 2.3 billion you spent for TSMC out of that 2.4, was it all 12-inch?

也許不太具體，但總的來說，你為台積電花費的 23 億，其中 2.4 英寸，都是 12 英寸嗎？

There a portion for 8-inch as well?

還有8吋的嗎？

There is some portion for 8-inch but the major portion was for 12-inch.

有一些8英寸的部分，但主要部分是12英寸的。

Do you mind just giving like a rough percentage or is it hard?

你介意只提供一個大概的百分比嗎？還是很難？

Okay.

好的。

There are around 75 percent was for 12-inch.

大約 75% 是 12 英吋的。

And something close to 15 percent for 8-inch.

8 英吋的則接近 15%。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You next question comes from Medhi Hosseini from Friedman Billings Ramsey.

您的下一個問題來自 Friedman Billings Ramsey 的 Medhi Hosseini。

Over to you.

交給你了。

I have 2 questions.

我有 2 個問題。

First, if you could talk about your capacity at 90 nanometer node and where would the mix be a year from now?

首先，如果您能談談您在 90 奈米節點的容量，以及一年後的混合會如何？

And also in terms of utilization rate, if you could elaborate on utilization rate for technology above 130 nanometer and below, what's the mix?

還有在利用率方面，如果您能詳細說明一下130奈米以上及以下技術的利用率，它們是怎樣的？

If you could provide some color on the difference?

您能否提供一些關於差異的顏色？

Okay.

好的。

This quarter our 90 nanometer capacity will be roughly 10K per month.

本季我們的 90 奈米產能約為每月 10K。

In this quarter.

在本季度。

What was your second question?

你的第二個問題是什麼？

Just on a 90 nanometer, I'm just trying to get a sense of with the CapEx going up by 7, 8 percent in '05, how are you expecting a 90 nanometer capacity ramp?

就 90 奈米而言，我只是想了解 05 年資本支出成長了 7%、8%，您對 90 奈米產能提升有何預期？

Where would you see these 10K per month be a year from now?

一年後你會在哪裡看到每月這 1 萬美元？

For 2005, by the end of this year, will give us roughly -- roughly 25K of 12-inch capacity for 90 nanometers.

到 2005 年，到今年年底，我們將擁有約 25K 的 90 奈米 12 吋產能。

Okay.

好的。

And then regarding utilization rate, is there a big difference between -- below 130 nanometer nodes and above?

那麼利用率方面，130奈米節點以下和130奈米以上節點有很大差異嗎？

Normally we don't comment vis-a-vis utilization for different technology, but as you know, we are building capacity for advanced technology.

通常我們不會對不同技術的利用發表評論，但如您所知，我們正在建立先進技術的能力。

We assume that differentiation for those at the basket[ph] line will be very high.

我們假設處於籃子[ph]線的人的分化將會非常高。

Right.

正確的。

I'm just trying to get a sense of to what extent under-utilized 8-inch lines are going to be overhang on your overall profitability gross margin.

我只是想了解未充分利用的 8 英寸生產線對您的整體盈利毛利率的影響程度。

I cannot give you prediction for the whole year because we are still in the early first quarter.

我無法給你全年的預測，因為我們仍處於第一季初期。

But the utilization for tool technology, especially on 0.15 and 0.18, will be lower than fourth quarter.

但工具技術的利用率，尤其是0.15和0.18的利用率，將低於第四季。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Robert Maire from Needham & Company Inc.

您的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company Inc. 的 Robert Maire。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Congratulations on the nice numbers, by the way.

順便說一句，恭喜你獲得了不錯的數字。

Your utilization and ASP seem to be holding up relatively well and relatively well compared to some others.

與其他一些公司相比，您的利用率和平均售價似乎保持得相對較好。

Maybe you could give us a little -- is this because this beginning that we are seeing here is not as bad as others?

也許你可以給我們一點——這是因為我們在這裡看到的這個開始並不像其他的那麼糟糕嗎？

A combination of share or what is -- what is sort of the recipe for the utilization holding up here?

份額的組合或什麼是－這裡保持利用率的秘訣是什麼？

And I realize it is difficult to make projections further out, but in terms of utilizations going beyond Q1, if we were to apply the seasonal model that you're suggesting, any thoughts or any guesses currently as to where you think utilization will bottom out and when?

我意識到很難做出進一步的預測，但就第一季之後的利用率而言，如果我們要應用您建議的季節性模型，目前關於您認為利用率將在何處觸底的任何想法或猜什麼時候？

Well, we -- Chairman says in the afternoon, he foresees songer[ph] industry to resume growth in the second quarter and TSMC being the leader in the segment, certainly, we'll believe our leader, pack.

嗯，我們董事長下午說，他預計松歌產業將在第二季度恢復成長，台積電將成為該領域的領導者，當然，我們會相信我們的領導者 Pack。

So, would I interpret that to mean that the first quarter will be the bottom of the utilization rate?

那麼，我是否可以將其解釋為第一季將是利用率的底部？

If we talk about revenue growth resumption, yes.

如果我們談論收入成長恢復，是的。

Talk about revenue.

談收入。

Okay, so it may not be the bottom for utilization, but we would expect Q1 to be the bottom for revenue?

好吧，所以它可能不是利用率的底部，但我們預計第一季將是收入的底部？

Yes, our capacity will continue to grow quarter-over-quarter because our advanced technology, AT, will be growing.

是的，我們的產能將繼續逐季成長，因為我們的先進技術 AT 將會持續成長。

Okay.

好的。

So in terms of shipments of wafers or revenues we're expecting sort of a trough in the first quarter and then a resumption of growth in Q2.

因此，就晶圓出貨量或收入而言，我們預計第一季會出現低谷，然後在第二季恢復成長。

And that would follow normal seasonal patterns or that's what you're assuming?

這將遵循正常的季節性模式，或者這就是您的假設？

I think that, yes, we're assuming, yes, second quarter to have the revenue growth.

我認為，是的，我們假設第二季收入會成長。

Okay.

好的。

And a follow-on question to that, if you're assuming the first quarter to be sort of the bottom and growth to start in the second quarter, I'm assuming that the 2.5 to US$2.7 billion CapEx is more back-end loaded to the second half of the year as compared to the first half because you expect this increase coming starting in the second quarter?

隨之而來的問題是，如果您假設第一季觸底並在第二季度開始增長，我假設 250 至 27 億美元的資本支出更多是後端負載與上半年相比，下半年是因為您預計這種成長會從第二季開始嗎？

Actually, the cap ex from 2005 will be pretty much front-end loaded.

事實上，2005 年的資本支出幾乎都是前端加載的。

You know that we need some lead time when we install the equipment so most of the equipment used for second half is to be installed in first half.

大家知道我們安裝設備需要一定的準備時間，所以下半年使用的設備大部分都要在上半年安裝。

Okay, so probably more front-end loaded at this point.

好的，此時可能會載入更多前端。

Yes, front-end loaded.

是的，前端已載入。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Michael McConnell from Pacific Crest Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Michael McConnell。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Lora, just looking at the capacity, it looks like it is going to be up 24 percent -- roughly 24 percent year-over-year for 2005.

Lora，只要看看容量，看起來就會成長 24%——與 2005 年相比大約是 24%。

And then in your earlier conference call you had -- the Chairman had stated that revenues were going to be down 2 percent this year and then up again 10 percent in 2006.

在您之前的電話會議中，董事長表示今年的收入將下降 2%，然後 2006 年將再次成長 10%。

Could you kind of reconcile the thoughts for capacity being up that high?

您能否調和容量如此高的想法？

And then also, any comments on what you think pricing is going to do between -- maybe in the first half of the year, I know your visibility is pretty limited right now.

然後，關於您認為定價將在上半年之間發生什麼的任何評論——也許是在今年上半年，我知道您現在的知名度相當有限。

The capacity growth, 24 percent percent, is mainly on 12-inch and to support a 90 nanometer and 0.13 microns.

產能成長24%，主要集中在12英寸，並支援90奈米和0.13微米。

On those technology we feel for TSMC, we are going to see a very significant growth in revenue.

在我們對台積電的這些技術上，我們將看到收入的顯著成長。

The total revenue may not grow that fast because we do see some mature technology will be under-utilized for the whole year.

總收入可能不會成長那麼快，因為我​​們確實看到一些成熟的技術全年都沒有充分利用。

With the capacity moving up so much your depreciation is going to be about 10 percent so should we think of this as in a way you sacrificing some profit margin, maybe over the year, for -- to take some market share and position yourself more favorably for 2006?

隨著產能大幅提升，您的折舊率將達到10% 左右，因此我們是否應該將此視為您犧牲一些利潤率（也許在一年內）的一種方式，以獲得一些市場份額並讓自己處於更有利的地位2006 年？

There's no logical connection of the 2 numbers.

這兩個數字沒有邏輯連結。

Of course, the profitability has to do a lot of factors including AO, IST and your core structure.

當然，獲利能力跟很多因素有關，包括AO、IST和你的核心架構。

And other matters as well.

還有其他事項。

So there's no logical connection.

所以沒有邏輯聯繫。

With your capacity being at 24 percent, obviously utilizations are going to be somewhat impacted but that's a pretty big number, would you agree?

由於容量為 24%，顯然利用率會受到一定影響，但這是一個相當大的數字，您同意嗎？

Well, I would say that 2005 is too early to say.

嗯，我想說 2005 年說還太早。

But if you compare year-over-year, 2005 versus 2004, the utilization will be less in 2005.

但如果將 2005 年與 2004 年逐年比較，就會發現 2005 年的使用率將會降低。

And then --

進而 -

Well, basically, the -- again, we're buying equipment for advanced technologies and we expect, as Lora said earlier, we expect the utilization for load capacity to be high, quite high, otherwise we would not have bought the equipment.

嗯，基本上，我們再次購買先進技術的設備，我們預計，正如洛拉早些時候所說，我們預計負載能力的利用率會很高，相當高，否則我們就不會購買這些設備。

And then any comments on the various end markets would be helpful in terms of -- it sounded like wireline was the weakest in Q4 within communications.

然後，對各個終端市場的任何評論都會有所幫助——聽起來有線是第四季度通訊領域最薄弱的。

If we look out into Q1, I think in your earlier conference call you said all the end markets should be down.

如果我們展望第一季度，我認為您在先前的電話會議中表示所有終端市場都應該下跌。

Are there any that are going to -- in terms of community stock it, in terms of what's going to be down the most, what's going to fair the best, and specifically within each end market, which products look like they're going to be holding up the best and which ones the worst?

是否有任何東西會 - 就社區庫存而言，就什麼會下跌最多，什麼會公平最好，特別是在每個終端市場內，哪些產品看起來會哪些是最好的，哪些是最差的？

I can tell you on first quarter we see communication, consumer, and computer will all go down, with communication, computer go down more than the consumer.

我可以告訴你，第一季我們看到通訊、消費者和電腦都會下降，其中通訊、電腦的下降幅度超過消費者。

Okay.

好的。

As in wireline, that's probably still the weakest.

與有線一樣，這可能仍然是最弱的。

Wireless wire going down, but we do not believe it will be a severe down and we expect that to resume fairly quickly.

無線線路下降，但我們認為下降不會很嚴重，我們預計這種情況很快就會恢復。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the graphics side.

然後是圖形方面。

There's been -- one of your major customers has had some capacity constraints.

您的一位主要客戶存在一些容量限制。

Could you talk about what profits look like for Q1, please?

能談談第一季的利潤嗎？

I think graphics is going through seasonal adjustment in first quarter.

我認為第一季圖形正在經歷季節性調整。

The overall picture outlook, I would say, at least normal, you know.

我想說，整體前景至少是正常的，你知道。

We believe the PC segment will -- these unit shipment, Mike, will still grow, somewhat slower compared to last year, though.

我們相信，麥克，個人電腦領域的出貨量仍將成長，但與去年相比會有所放緩。

The growth rate.

增長率。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from Pranab Kumar Sarmah from Daiwa Institute of Research.

您的下一個問題來自大和研究所的 Pranab Kumar Sarmah。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

On your press release you had mentioned a wafer dated there could be some asset impairment charge.

在您的新聞稿中，您提到了一塊日期可能有一些資產減損費用的晶圓。

Could you a little bit elaborate on that?

能詳細說明一下嗎？

Actually, there is a assaying impairment charge back in 2000.

事實上，早在2000年就有一項分析減損費用。

So we have to comply that test a couple years ago and up to now we don't see further assaying impairment being happening, none -- either TSMC or our Ophidian[ph]

因此，我們必須遵守幾年前的測試，到目前為止，我們沒有看到進一步的分析損害發生，沒有——無論是台積電還是我們的 Ophidian[ph]

And how do we look at your long-term investment on the first quarter '05?

我們如何看待你們05年第一季的長期投資？

Wouldn't it be a significantly down from where we are now in fourth quarter?

這不會比第四季現在的水平大幅下降嗎？

Usually, when TSMC has lower utilization, our wafer tag and SSMC, they also suffer a lower utilization, so we expect the financial performance from long-term investment will not be as good as fourth quarter.

通常，當台積電利用率較低時，我們的晶圓標籤和SSMC利用率也會較低，因此我們預期長期投資的財務表現將不如第四季。

And my last question is on the display related product segment, how do you look at on the first quarter display related product and what is your strategy on the LCD driver IC segment?

我的最後一個問題是關於顯示相關產品領域，您如何看待第一季顯示相關產品以及您在LCD驅動IC領域的策略是什麼？

We see display -- well, let me first say we do play in the display driver business.

我們看到顯示器——好吧，首先讓我說我們確實從事顯示器驅動程式業務。

Our number, however, doesn't necessarily reflect the whole display market situation because I don't think we are -- our penetration is not big enough, yet.

然而，我們的數字並不一定反映整個顯示器市場的情況，因為我認為我們的滲透率還不夠大。

So if you ask our strategy in the display area, well, we are expecting our technology effort in this area to attack both large panel and the small panel advisory market.

因此，如果你問我們在顯示領域的策略，那麼，我們預計我們在該領域的技術努力將同時進攻大型面板和小型面板諮詢市場。

And we expect to grow quite significantly in this area.

我們預計在這一領域會有相當大的成長。

Could you assume like we'll be seeing a significant distancing from the second half of '05 or maybe you have already started production sometime on the first of '05, excluding a Vanguard related production.

您是否可以假設我們將看到與 05 年下半年的顯著差距，或者您可能已經在 05 年上半年的某個時候開始製作，不包括與 Vanguard 相關的製作。

We already have a significant production for large panel and some small panel drivers.

我們已經大量生產大型面板和一些小型面板驅動器。

I think we have -- we aspire to grow a lot more.

我認為我們已經——我們渴望實現更多成長。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Dan Heyler from Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美林證券的丹·海勒。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I had a few questions.

我有幾個問題。

In the diversification effort to try to build out and use more of your excess 200 millimeter capacity, you guys have highlighted CMOS image sensors, LCD drivers, x-signal, RF embedded flash, and flash memory.

在嘗試擴大和利用更多 200 毫米產能的多元化努力中，你們重點關注了 CMOS 影像感測器、LCD 驅動器、x 訊號、RF 嵌入式快閃記憶體和快閃記憶體。

Were there any areas that you're currently doing work on that we would expect to potentially hear more about in the future, going forward?

您目前正在進行的哪些領域的工作我們希望在未來能夠聽到更多相關資訊？

Or are these pretty much areas where you see most of the upside?

或者說，這些領域是您看到最多好處的領域嗎？

Yes, we still have some effort going, for instance, in the analog area in the -- you know, we're also looking at the MEMS -- but I think somewhat -- some of them may take us longer to develop compared to what the -- compared to ones the Chairman mentioned in the afternoon.

是的，我們仍然有一些努力，例如，在模擬領域——你知道，我們也在研究 MEMS——但我認為，與其他領域相比，其中一些可能需要我們更長的時間來發展與主席下午提到的那些相比。

But we have, yes, we have other efforts going on to penetrate more market segment.

但是，是的，我們正在採取其他努力來滲透更多的細分市場。

Is the demand/effort, is that -- is that standalone nan-flash, and is that potentially high density or is it more the consumer variety?

是需求/努力，是獨立的奈米閃存，是潛在的高密度還是更多的消費者品種？

I don't think we mentioned that.

我想我們沒有提到這一點。

You just said nan-flash?

你剛才說nan-flash？

No, I didn't.

不，我沒有。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

I'm sorry, MEMS.

對不起，MEMS。

Oh, got it, okay.

噢，明白了，好。

Mems.

內存。

Got it.

知道了。

Oh, I'm sorry.

哦，對不起。

And something we considered.

我們考慮過一些事情。

We haven't -- we don't have any decision.

我們還沒有——我們沒有任何決定。

Okay.

好的。

And the Chairman did mention standalone flash today, did he not?

主席今天確實提到了獨立閃存，不是嗎？

We do have flash effort although it is more on the lower density applications.

我們確實在閃存方面做出了努力，儘管更多的是在低密度應用上。

Okay.

好的。

So, no effort to do high volume stuff there for -- for your fabs then?

那麼，您的晶圓廠沒有努力去做大量的事情嗎？

Not now.

現在不要。

And then on the LCD side.

然後是液晶螢幕一側。

You guys have emphasized this high voltage process and we've been hearing about the 0.18 high voltage process for some time at the foundries.

你們已經強調了這種高壓工藝，我們在代工廠聽說 0.18 高壓工藝已經有一段時間了。

But when we talked build to the large panel LCD driver companies, they tend to continue to say this year is predominantly 0.35 and some maybe some 0.25.

但當我們與大型面板 LCD 驅動器公司討論建造時，他們傾向於繼續說今年主要是 0.35，有些可能是 0.25。

So, I'm wondering at what point can we really see high voltage parts that can be used in panels going to 0.18.

所以，我想知道什麼時候我們才能真正看到可用於電壓達到 0.18 的面板的高壓部件。

Is that more kind of 2006 time frame or are you seeing any of that this year?

這是 2006 年的時間框架還是你今年會看到這樣的時間框架？

Dan, I think, this is a very fragmented area.

丹，我認為，這是一個非常分散的領域。

I think different makers tend to use different technology.

我認為不同的製造商傾向於使用不同的技術。

And I would agree with you, 0.35, probably still the mainstay.

我同意你的觀點，0.35，可能還是主流。

But, from my point, definitely going into the volume production. [inaudible] H, I think we will start some application, but the volume probably won't happen, as you said, next year.

但是，從我的角度來看，肯定會進入大量生產。 [聽不清楚] H，我認為我們將開始一些申請，但正如您所說，明年可能不會出現大量申請。

I think between 0.25 and 0.18 there will be some, you know, a tug of war type of thing.

我認為在 0.25 到 0.18 之間會有一些，你知道的，一場拉鋸戰之類的事情。

Right.

正確的。

What are the technology issues there on some current way to get there?

目前實現此目標的方式存在哪些技術問題？

This is the large transition.

這是一個大的轉變。

There doesn't seem like the cost benefits are there.

似乎沒有成本效益。

So is it mainly just the pricing issue to move there or what are the dynamics?

那麼，搬到那裡主要只是定價問題還是動態是什麼？

More panel integration is one issue.

更多面板集成是一個問題。

There will be some -- there is always memory, as well, embedded as well, there.

會有一些——也總是有記憶，也嵌入在那裡。

And that really will have the major impact on the technology being utilized.

這確實會對所使用的技術產生重大影響。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Your next question comes from Ali Irani from CIBC World Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 世界市場部的阿里·伊拉尼 (Ali Irani)。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Yes, good morning, gentlemen. 2 related questions.

是的，早安，先生們。 2個相關問題。

One looking at the under utilized legacy capacity, it seems that some of these fabs are -- or the capacities being kept up because it is now fully decommissioned and still very -- depreciated and still very profitable rather than being decommissioned.

看看未充分利用的遺留產能，似乎其中一些晶圓廠——或者說由於其現已完全退役而得以保留的產能——折舊但仍然非常有利可圖，而不是退役。

I'm wondering what the impact to pricing is going to be through the balance of the year and if you can elaborate in more detail about your pricing outlook beyond the first quarter for the balance of the year as you add 25 percent capacity.

我想知道今年剩餘時間對定價的影響是什麼，以及當您增加 25% 的產能時，您是否可以更詳細地闡述今年第一季之後剩餘時間的定價前景。

Thank you very much .

非常感謝 。

Your next question comes from --

你的下一個問題來自——

Hold on, hold on.

堅持住，堅持住。

We haven't answered the question yet.

我們還沒有回答這個問題。

My apologies.

我很抱歉。

The pricing, we -- first of all, TSMC, in our history, has not decommissioned any capacity, except for Fab 1, which the government wanted to take back, it was a lead facility from the government.

定價，我們——首先，台積電，在我們的歷史上，沒有退役任何產能，除了一號晶圓廠，政府想收回它，它是政府的主導設施。

So, what TSMC has always found application for those capacities, moreover, of course, just like any other company, utilization would go up and down depending on the cycle.

因此，台積電總是找到這些產能的應用，而且，當然，就像其他公司一樣，利用率會根據週期而上下波動。

And we don't see -- we don't see any exception this time, also.

我們沒有看到──這次我們也沒有看到任何例外。

We -- and as we said earlier, we are developing different technologies, you know, with different technology nodes, so that we can get new business to fill those capacities.

正如我們之前所說，我們正在開發不同的技術，具有不同的技術節點，以便我們能夠獲得新的業務來填補這些能力。

And we are also working very closely with our customers to have -- to enable them to get the best possible cost-effective design into our fabs.

我們還與客戶密切合作，使他們能夠在我們的晶圓廠中獲得最具成本效益的設計。

I think pricing is the last resort that we would use to fill the gap and as you can see, our -- of course, our ASP has been fairly stable during the past several quarters.

我認為定價是我們用來填補空白的最後手段，正如您所看到的，我們的——當然，我們的平均售價在過去幾個季度中相當穩定。

We will do our absolute best to maintain that .

我們將盡最大努力維持這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Sunil Gupta from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的蘇尼爾古普塔。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wanted to follow-up on Chairman's comments this morning about the outlook for the industry.

我想跟進主席今天早上對行業前景的評論。

And one of the key things that he mentioned, his revised outlook for 2006, although a bit earlier.

他提到的關鍵事情之一是他對 2006 年前景的修訂，儘管有點早。

Just wanted to understand, what change in company is taking from -- which has caused a significant revision from flat growth to 10 percent as mentioned earlier?

只是想了解，公司發生了哪些變化——導致了前面提到的從持平增長到 10% 的重大修正？

Well, basically, this is the macro -- this analysis came from a macro analysis.

嗯，基本上，這就是宏觀——這個分析來自宏觀分析。

Looking at the cycle of the industry and the -- if you look at the cycle and the 2005 being flat to slightly down year, and we -- we believe the -- that from our macro analysis, the 2006 will have roughly 10 percent growth.

看看這個行業的周期，如果你看看這個週期，2005 年是持平到略有下降的一年，我們相信，從我們的宏觀分析來看，2006 年將有大約 10% 的增長。

But to the detailed segment analysis, I think still too early to tell now.

但對於詳細的細分分析，我認為現在還為時過早。

Is the company able to see any specific applications or application categories which might drive this double digit growth?

公司是否能夠看到任何可能推動這種兩位數成長的特定應用程式或應用程式類別？

Or is it too early for that right now?

還是現在還太早？

Well, I think, in general, we believe the consumer application and also the -- again, the cell phone application will continue to drive the silicon usage, you know, in the end market.

嗯，我認為，總的來說，我們相信消費者應用以及手機應用將繼續推動終端市場的矽使用。

Okay.

好的。

And I also wanted to follow-up on the other comment that the Chairman made about near-term industry trends where, and you also mentioned this earlier, that you expect your Q2 revenue to be somewhat higher than what you expect in Q1.

我還想跟進主席關於近期行業趨勢的其他評論，您之前也提到過，您預計第二季度的收入將略高於第一季的預期。

And I was wondering, what gives you the confidence that you would have higher revenue in Q2 which I guess if you compare it with what you normally see sanity is that's usually not the case.

我想知道，是什麼讓您有信心在第二季度獲得更高的收入，我想如果您將其與您通常認為理智的情況進行比較，情況通常並非如此。

We believe our -- I mean there's certainly -- the fourth quarter, you can see that there has been a decline in fourth quarter plus another decline in the first quarter.

我們相信我們的——我的意思是肯定有——第四季度，你可以看到第四季度出現了下降，加上第一季又出現了下降。

And we all know that the -- one of the major culprit is the inventory that's in our customers' area.

我們都知道，罪魁禍首之一是我們客戶區域的庫存。

And the -- we are -- we believe those inventory are being consumed in this 2 quarters, the fourth quarter and first quarter.

我們相信這些庫存將在這兩個季度、第四季和第一季被消耗掉。

And then the -- that will bring up the orders from our customer base.

然後——這將帶來我們客戶群的訂單。

So I think that's the main -- we believe that will be the main drivers for that.

所以我認為這是主要的——我們相信這將是主要的驅動因素。

We do recognize, of course, the seasonality factor in there.

當然，我們確實認識到其中的季節性因素。

So that will mean, basically, maybe the magnitude of the growth.

因此，這基本上意味著成長的幅度。

So it sounds like based on a view that most inventory digestion would be over by end of Q1 and hence maybe bit of a snap back in Q2.

因此，這聽起來像是基於這樣一種觀點，即大多數庫存消化將在第一季末結束，因此可能會在第二季度有所回升。

Is that what is going to drive that?

這就是驅動力嗎？

Yes, that's what we are saying, yes.

是的，這就是我們所說的，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Your next question comes from Shailesh Jaitly from Nomura Securities.

您的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Shailesh Jaitly。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

Firstly would want to understand this better than expected utilization in the fourth quarter, because earlier you were expecting 84 to 86, came in at 88 percent.

首先，我們想更了解第四季的利用率，因為之前您預計為 84 到 86，實際利用率為 88%。

So, do we take it that you had significantly better terms business towards the end of the quarter and that means you ended the quarter at relatively better utilizations than what you were expecting?

那麼，我們是否認為您在本季末的業務條件明顯更好，這意味著您在本季結束時的利用率比您的預期相對更好？

Shailesh, actually it's not far from our guidance of 84 to 86, just 1 or 2 percent is something do not consider unusual.

Shailesh，實際上，這與我們 84 到 86 的指導值相差不遠，只有 1% 或 2% 並不被認為是異常的。

I think we're talking about output utilization, so there are a few customers that --they serrate their ordering so that is why.

我認為我們正在討論輸出利用率，因此有一些客戶 - 他們鋸齒狀訂購，這就是原因。

I wanted to understand a bit more the linearity of the first quarter.

我想更多地了解第一季的線性情況。

From this, do we take it that the first quarter, second half, is a lot more weaker than the first half?

由此看來，第一季、下半年，是不是比上半年弱很多？

Or how would the linearity of this quarter would prove this?

或者本季的線性如何證明這一點？

Can you explain more about your linearity?

能詳細解釋一下您的線性嗎？

The utilizations in January, February, versus March, when you are guiding these numbers, are you expecting March utilizations to be lower than where we are right now in January?

1 月、2 月和 3 月的使用率，當您指導這些數字時，您是否預計 3 月的利用率會低於 1 月的使用率？

We do not cover the monthly utilization, actually it is not that important, because if you consider our cycle time for 8-inch and 12-inch is more than one month, so we don't think that is important to differentiate each monthly utilization.

我們沒有涵蓋每月的使用率，實際上它並不那麼重要，因為如果你考慮到我們8英寸和12英寸的周期時間超過一個月，所以我們認為區分每個月的利用率並不重要。

Okay.

好的。

Your capacity additions for this year, if you could help explain the timing of these capacity additions, would it be front-end loaded?

你們今年的產能增加，如果你能幫忙解釋一下這些產能增加的時間點，會是前端加載嗎？

And if so, what would be a capacity say in the second quarter, what would be the percentage increase?

如果是這樣，第二季的產能是多少，成長百分比是多少？

Okay.

好的。

The kpcs will be front-end loaded as I explained earlier.

正如我之前所解釋的，kpcs 將在前端加載。

As far as capacity --

就容量而言——

I just wanted to the understand the capacity additions.

我只是想了解容量的增加。

You would be adding roughly about 13 percent capacity this year.

今年您將增加約 13% 的產能。

Should we assume that your biggest increases are going to come in the second quarter of this year?

我們是否應該假設你們的最大增幅將出現在今年第二季？

Yes, pretty much, the biggest increase comes in the second quarter.

是的，幾乎最大的成長出現在第二季。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Tim Arcuri from Citigroup Global Markets Inc..

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團全球市場公司的 Tim Arcuri。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

I had actually 2 questions.

我實際上有兩個問題。

Number 1, if I look at your CapEx, you're saying that the 2005 CapEx will be front-end loaded.

第一，如果我查看您的資本支出，您會發現 2005 年的資本支出將由前端加載。

However, I believe that your order rates for equipment are pretty far below that $650 million CapEx run rate.

然而，我相信你們的設備訂購率遠低於 6.5 億美元的資本支出運作率。

So it kind of implies that you have to start ordering more tools relatively quickly here.

因此，這意味著您必須在這裡相對較快地開始訂購更多工具。

Is that the right way to look at it?

這是正確的看待方式嗎？

I do not know why you think we are behind in our ordering.

我不知道為什麼你認為我們的訂購落後了。

I think we are ordering fairly regularly the equipment to meet our current capacity.

我認為我們相當定期地訂購設備以滿足我們目前的產能。

So --

所以 -

We are bringing up our Fab 14 capacity quite significantly.

我們正在大幅提高 Fab 14 產能。

So usually we're the first fab in the very beginning phase of ramping up, usually we will order more equipment as a part of the advanced technology.

因此，通常我們是處於起步階段的第一家晶圓廠，通常我們會訂購更多設備作為先進技術的一部分。

Okay.

好的。

I guess let me ask it this way, then.

那我想就這樣問吧。

Out of the entire 2005 CapEx budget, let's say you spending, say, the middle of the range say 2.6 billion.

假設您在 2005 年整個資本支出預算中支出了 26 億美元。

Out of that entire budget, how much of the -- how many of those tools have been ordered today?

在整個預算中，今天訂購了多少工具？

Can you repeat your question again?

你能再重複一次你的問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So if you just take the mid range of your '05 CapEx budget, at roughly 2.6 billion, how many of those tools have been ordered today?

因此，如果您只考慮 05 年資本支出預算的中間範圍（大約 26 億美元），那麼今天已經訂購了多少這樣的工具？

I don't have the number, no.

我沒有號碼，沒有。

Is it half, is it less than half?

是一半還是不到一半？

Can you just give us kind of a ballpark.

你能給我們一個大致的了解嗎？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

So would I be wrong in concluding that your orders should start to ramp, that you're going to have to start to order more tools or do you feel like you're ordering at a pretty consistent level right now.

因此，我認為您的訂單應該開始增加，您將不得不開始訂購更多工具，或者您覺得您現在的訂購水平是否相當穩定，這是錯誤的嗎？

We are ordering at a very consistent level.

我們的訂購水準非常一致。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

The next question comes from Ashis Kumar from Credit Suisse First Boston.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓的 Ashis Kumar。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good evening.

晚安.

My first question is perhaps in the current weak environment, your book to bill for each month might be earning below 1, but, ma'am, if you could just run through how the trend is in book to bill over the previous few months.

我的第一個問題是，也許在當前疲軟的環境下，您每個月的帳單收入可能會低於 1，但是，女士，您能否簡單了解一下前幾個月帳單的趨勢如何。

We're running a BB ratio of below 1 for -- for a few months but I think the -- it has started to come back up during the past couple of months.

幾個月來，我們的 BB 比率一直低於 1，但我認為，在過去的幾個月裡，它已經開始回升。

We're still -- but, of course, January is not done yet.

我們仍然——但是，當然，一月還沒結束。

We are still -- I think it is a bit too early.

我們仍然——我認為現在還為時過早。

You said it was bit early, but it seems from what you say that Jan. might be touching a book to bill of 1?

你說有點早了，但從你的說法來看，Jan可能正在把一本書碰到一號帳單上？

And that is the estimate?

這就是估計？

Well, I think we have passed the bottom.

好吧，我認為我們已經度過了谷底。

I think we're -- you know, because each month is a very volatile number and the -- at this stage, we would have numbers sometimes above 1, sometimes below 1, but we have passed the bottom.

我認為我們——你知道，因為每個月都是一個非常不穩定的數字，而且——在這個階段，我們的數字有時高於 1，有時低於 1，但我們已經觸底了。

Okay.

好的。

And I think to answering to an earlier question, it seemed that in terms of percentage increase in sequential capacity second quarter is the maximum buildout that we are seeing.

我認為在回答先前的問題時，就連續產能的百分比成長而言，第二季似乎是我們看到的最大擴張。

Is it possible to, you know, quantify that.

你知道，是否有可能量化這一點。

How much -- like, currently we're at 1.3 million wafer per quarter.

目前我們每季生產 130 萬片晶圓。

What will we expect in second quarter, end of second quarter, that is?

我們對第二季、第二季末的預期是什麼？

We said the second quarter capacity increased the most, but usually we do not quantify that.

我們說第二季產能增幅最大，但通常我們不會對此進行量化。

And we have to give you some qualitative number.

我們必須給你一些定性的數字。

The reason to ask you that, I think earlier, you know, we hesitated in answering the question whether your transition rate will bottom in the second quarter.

之所以問你這個問題，我想早些時候，你知道，我們在回答你的轉型率是否會在第二季度觸底的問題時猶豫不決。

Okay, let me tell you this.

好吧，讓我告訴你這一點。

The second quarter capacity versus first quarter will be increased more than 10 percent.

第二季產能較第一季增加10%以上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's so useful.

這太有用了。

And my final question is, that, you know, in this year, shall we build a higher R&D expense to revenue because of 65 nanometer, than what we had in 2004?

我的最後一個問題是，你知道，今年我們是否會因為 65 奈米而建立比 2004 年更高的研發費用與收入？

Yes.

是的。

And any sort of number, you know, something that you can guide us to as R&D is a portion of your revenue.

你知道，任何類型的數字，你可以指導我們的研發都是你收入的一部分。

Specific to revenue but you have 2 variables.

具體到收入，但有兩個變數。

One is the R&D spend and the other one is the revenue.

一是研發支出，二是收入。

So, I think normally our R&D expense representing 5.6 percent of our revenue.

所以，我認為通常我們的研發費用占我們收入的 5.6%。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You next question comes from Donald Lu from Goldman Sachs Asia.

下一個問題來自高盛亞洲的 Donald Lu。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Hi, Lora.

嗨，洛拉。

Just want to clarify a couple of things.

只是想澄清一些事情。

One is in the afternoon you mentioned that for this year you expect the ROE for '05 to be -- not too deviate too much from your ROE goal, which I believe is 20 percent.

其中一個是在下午，您提到今年您預計 05 年的 ROE 不會偏離您的 ROE 目標太多，我認為該目標是 20%。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And just to cover, you just mentioned that for the 90 nanometer, you expect the -- to represent about 10 percent of total revenues by what time, Q4 or Q3?

順便說一句，您剛剛提到，對於 90 奈米，您預計到什麼時候（第四季或第三季）將佔總收入的 10% 左右？

I think I said its 90 nanometer revenue will -- in the second half of 2005, will represent double digits.

我想我說過它的 90 奈米收入將在 2005 年下半年達到兩位數。

And of course the double digit doesn't mean 80, 90 percent.

當然，兩位數並不意味著 80%、90%。

I say that you won't believe it.

我說你不會相信。

Sure.

當然。

Okay.

好的。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Your next question comes from Ivan Goh from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

您的下一個問題來自 Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 的 Ivan Goh。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Hi, good evening.

嗨，晚上好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I've got a couple of questions.

我有幾個問題。

Firstly, I think Chairman in the afternoon session did say that he expects immersion lithography to be used only at 45 nanometer.

首先，我認為主席在下午的會議上確實說過，他預計浸沒式光刻技術只能在 45 奈米製程中使用。

But, I think, instead a Mr. Burn Lin, who is your VP of Micropatterning, disclosed sometime in December saying that immersion lithography could be deployed at 65 nanometer to increase the e-depth of 45's.

但是，我認為，Burn Lin 先生（你們的微圖案化副總裁）在 12 月的某個時候透露說，可以在 65 奈米處部署浸沒式光刻，以將 e 深度增加到 45 奈米。

Just wanted to find out if there has been any change in your technology road map.

只是想知道您的技術路線圖是否有任何變化。

This is no change.

這沒有改變。

Really, I think Chairman said earlier, basically, we'll main for 45 but we will start using the 65.

真的，我認為主席早些時候說過，基本上，我們將主要使用 45，但我們將開始使用 65。

The extent of which will depend on manufacturers, the process margin, the cost, all those things.

其程度將取決於製造商、製程利潤、成本等所有因素。

So -- but I think, you know, we already have the machine in our fab and we have done some pretty good work there already.

所以，但我認為，你知道，我們的工廠已經擁有這台機器，我們已經在那裡做了一些非常好的工作。

Okay.

好的。

My second question regards the capacity increase this year.

我的第二個問題是關於今年的產能成長。

I would like to ask it in a different way.

我想以不同的方式問它。

I think you pretty much said earlier that utilization in 2005 would be lower than 2004.

我想您之前已經說過 2005 年的利用率將低於 2004 年。

Given that 2004 average utilization was about 100 percent and if you were to take perhaps 10 to 20 percent decrease from that in 2005 on average, what do you think that would do to your margins or is there no impact at all since the -- since the capacity under-utilization occurring at fabs that has depreciations has been fully run out?

鑑於 2004 年的平均利用率約為 100%，如果平均利用率比 2005 年下降 10% 到 20%，您認為這會對您的利潤產生什麼影響，或者自那以後根本沒有影響？晶圓廠產能使用率低、折舊已全部耗盡？

I will not comment the whole year, but if you look at our first quarter guidance, which we said utilization will be about 78 percent, and that will give a 38 to 40 percent margin.

我不會評論全年情況，但如果你看看我們第一季的指導，我們說利用率約為 78％，這將帶來 38％ 至 40％ 的利潤率。

So if anything goes above that, the margin will be higher.

因此，如果任何事情超出這個範圍，利潤就會更高。

Okay.

好的。

And I have a question on the taxes for 2005.

我有一個關於 2005 年稅收的問題。

Given that your kpcs is increasing significantly in 2005, what is the impact on your -- on your corporate tax for this year?

鑑於您的 kpcs 在 2005 年顯著增加，這對您今年的公司稅有何影響？

I think for your model purpose, it seems the kpcs for 2005 is roughly only about 10 percent higher than 2004.

我認為就您的模型目的而言，2005 年的 kpcs 大約只比 2004 年高出 10% 左右。

You can just assume it is going to be a 10 in terms of a tax credit.

您可以假設稅收抵免額為 10。

As far as the tax expenses, you can use the tax rate of 13 percent.

至於稅金費用，可以使用13%的稅率。

13?

13？

13, yes, in your model.

13，是的，在你的模型中。

And I have one last question.

我還有最後一個問題。

It seems as if the reduction in the 8-inch capacity in the first quarter was due to fab maintenance.

第一季8吋產能的減少似乎是由於晶圓廠維護所致。

So my question is, if you were to ignore fab maintenance and just consider installed capacity, what what would be the sequential increase in install capacity, that means capacity that actually could have gone into production if not for the maintenance in Q1?

所以我的問題是，如果您忽略晶圓廠維護並僅考慮裝機容量，那麼裝置容量的連續增長是多少，這意味著如果不是第一季的維護，實際上可以投入生產的容量？

Okay.

好的。

Let me take a look.

讓我看一看。

Thank you very much .

非常感謝 。

If we take out the factor that Q1 we're going to have some maintenance for 8-inch, our advanced technology capacity will actually goes up in first quarter in the magnitude of approximately 25K 8-inch equivalent in the first quarter.

如果我們除去第一季我們將對8英寸進行一些維護的因素，我們的先進技術產能實際上將在第一季上升，相當於第一季約25K 8英寸的數量。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We have a second question from mat Medhi Hosseini from Friedman Billings Ramsey.

我們有來自 Friedman Billings Ramsey 的 Mat Medhi Hosseini 提出的第二個問題。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just 2 follow-up questions.

只有 2 個後續問題。

Regarding 90 nanometer, could you help us understand the kind of customers you have for that particular technology node.

關於 90 奈米，您能否幫助我們了解該特定技術節點的客戶類型。

The kind of -- the diversity among customers and the total number of customers on aggregate.

類型－客戶的多樣性和客戶總數。

And also in terms of the yields, if you could elaborate on where the yields are at 90 nanometer and are you seeing any problem -- in other words, is there a big difference between wafer starts and wafer shipments for that particular technology node?

還有在良率方面，如果您能詳細說明90 奈米的良率在哪裡，您是否發現任何問題- 換句話說，該特定技術節點的晶圓起始和晶圓出貨之間是否存在很大差異？

Thank you.

謝謝。

We have the application for the 90 nanometer, basically covers a cell phone application, the base [inaudible], chips, graphics chip -- I mean, of course, PC graphic chips, programmable logic, consumer products such as the DVD recorder.

我們有90奈米的應用，基本上涵蓋了手機應用、底座[聽不清楚]、晶片、圖形晶片——我的意思當然是PC圖形晶片、可程式邏輯、DVD刻錄機等消費性產品。

We also expect some income for applications.

我們也期望一些應用程式收入。

You know, so it covers a fairly wide range of application.

你知道，所以它涵蓋了相當廣泛的應用範圍。

The mass -- the production going on right now has yields I would say better than we expected to have a year ago.

我想說，目前正在進行的生產的產量比我們一年前的預期要好。

It was, I think, our customer also is quite satisfied, quite happy with the yield.

我認為，我們的客戶對產量也非常滿意。

I would say this yield, it's definitely leading in the -- in our industry segment.

我想說，這個產量在我們的產業領域絕對是領先的。

The fab performance is also -- I would say, it is better than the, at the same time, for the 0,13 microns generation.

同時，晶圓廠的性能也優於 0.13 微米世代。

Sure.

當然。

Obviously, there are some product upgrades coming up in mid year in the game console area.

顯然，遊戲機領域將在年中進行一些產品升級。

If I were to look at all of these different types of products that you mentioned with the 90 nanometer, is the game console going to be a major driver?

如果我要看看您提到的所有這些不同類型的 90 奈米產品，遊戲機會成為主要驅動力嗎？

It is one of the drivers.

它是司機之一。

Understood.

明白了。

But if you could -- going back to early 2002, when we had kind of similar situation, graphics, gaming was very -- demand was very good and it was on the application demanding high end project technology, So I'm just trying to figure out the differences now compared to 2002.

但如果可以的話——回到 2002 年初，當時我們也有類似的情況，圖形、遊戲的需求非常好，而且是需要高端項目技術的應用程序，所以我只是想找出現在與2002 年相比的差異。

Well, actually, I think your statement on 2002 is not entirely correct.

嗯，實際上，我認為你關於2002年的說法並不完全正確。

I think at that time, of course, the game console chip, which was a X box chip, was the -- a important product at the time for 0.15 microns generation.

當然，我認為當時遊戲機晶片（即 X box 晶片）是當時 0.15 微米世代的重要產品。

But the other graphic chip, actually, outnumbered the game console usage by quite a bit.

但實際上，另一個圖形晶片的數量遠遠超過了遊戲機的使用量。

Plus -- of course, right now, we have added more applications in addition to PC segment.-- communication segment, cell phone really has come in very significantly.

另外——當然，現在，除了個人電腦領域之外，我們還添加了更多的應用程式。——通訊領域，手機的地位確實非常顯著。

Sure.

當然。

And if I may, just one follow-up.

如果可以的話，請跟進一次。

If I just do a basic calculation, 90 nanometer by the year-end will account for about 10 percent of your total capacity and your CapEx up by maybe 8 to 10 percent.

如果我做一個基本的計算，到年底90奈米將占到你總產能的10%左右，你的資本支出可能會增加8%到10%。

Could you help me understand to what extent this increasing CapEx or the mix of CapEx has to do with putting in place the initial equipment, what it needs to get -- get some initial volume brand.

您能否幫助我了解這種增加的資本支出或資本支出的組合在多大程度上與安裝初始設備有關，它需要獲得什麼 - 獲得一些初始批量品牌。

And then you just wait for the additional volume from -- the volume ram from other customers.

然後您只需等待來自其他客戶的捲內存的額外卷。

So, just trying to understand the capacity versus development part of the 90 nanometer ramp.

因此，我們只是想了解 90 奈米斜坡的容量與開發部分。

Sorry, I don't quite understand your point of your question but I do want to clarify that we said the 90 nanometer will account for more than 10 percent of our revenue.

抱歉，我不太明白你的問題的意思，但我確實想澄清一下，我們說過 90 納米將占我們收入的 10% 以上。

It is not more than 10 percent of capacity.

不超過容量的 10%。

Right, right, right.

對，對，對。

Right.

正確的。

But earlier, you said it is probably going to be -- 90 nanometer is going to be about 25K per month 12-inch equivalent, right?

但早些時候，您說過 90 奈米技術可能相當於每月 25K 的 12 吋產品，對嗎？

I'd say that by the end of this year.

我會在今年底說。

Right, right, right.

對，對，對。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Fayad Abbasi from Prudential Equity Group.

您的下一個問題來自 Prudential Equity Group 的 Fayad Abbasi。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Hi, I just had a couple of questions.

你好，我只是有幾個問題。

One, this last quarter you saw a nice sequential increase in your business coming from IDMs and recognizing that there is certainly some inventory correction happening with some of your fabless customer, maybe you could talk about what your outlook is over the course of 2005.

第一，上個季度，您看到來自IDM 的業務出現了良好的連續增長，並且認識到您的一些無晶圓廠客戶肯定會進行一些庫存調整，也許您可以談論您對2005年的展望。

Do you think that your IDM mix would be changing from where it has been in the past, so increasing, or maybe you could provide some color on that.

您是否認為您的 IDM 組合會比過去發生變化，從而增加，或者您可以對此提供一些顏色。

And I have a couple of other questions.

我還有其他幾個問題。

Well, over those many years, we -- amazingly, the ratio has been about one-third, two-thirds.

嗯，多年來，我們——令人驚訝的是，這個比例一直約為三分之一、三分之二。

You know, plus/minus a few points.

你知道，加/減幾點。

Really haven't -- out of that range over the past.

過去確實沒有超出這個範圍。

Maybe even 10 years if you go back.

如果你回去的話，甚至可能是10年。

But, certainly, do not expect to see a major shift in this year.

但是，當然，不要指望今年會出現重大轉變。

But, a couple of points shift is to be expected from quarter to quarter.

但是，預計每季都會出現幾個百分點的變化。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the consumer -- when you had talked about some of the areas of decline into Q1, you had mentioned communications and computer would be down and consumer would be down maybe slightly less.

然後在消費者方面，當您談到第一季的一些下降領域時，您提到通訊和電腦將會下降，而消費者的下降可能會稍微少一些。

Is this more a function of the fact that consumer had declined more drastically in Q4?

這是否更多是因為第四季消費者下降幅度較大？

Or maybe you can provide a little bit of color on what you're seeing from your consumer-related customers going into Q1 .

或者，也許您可以提供一些關於您在第一季從消費者相關客戶那裡看到的情況的資訊。

I think -- compared to fourth quarter, fourth quarter as a consumer application did go down, especially compared to other segments, computer in the market and the communications.

我認為，與第四季度相比，第四季度的消費應用確實有所下降，特別是與市場上的電腦和通訊等其他細分市場相比。

So, what you said in general are correct, that is so from percentage point of view.

所以，你說的總體來說是正確的，從百分比的角度來看也是。

The base in the fourth quarter was lower to begin with.

第四季的基數一開始就較低。

DVD, I think DVD application continued to be weak.

DVD，我認為DVD應用程式繼續疲軟。

However, camera, digital camera and MP 3 have done pretty well, even in the first quarter.

然而，相機、數位相機和 MP 3 的表現相當不錯，即使在第一季也是如此。

Okay.

好的。

And one last question.

最後一個問題。

Maybe if you can comment about -- I don't know if you've broken out how your CapEx for 2005 looks relative to TSM, your own versus wafer tech and your Shanghai fab.

也許您可以評論一下——我不知道您是否已經詳細說明了您 2005 年的資本支出相對於 TSM、您自己的資本支出與晶圓技術以及上海晶圓廠的比較。

If you could maybe give a little bit of breakout on how that looks over 2005.

您能否對 2005 年的情況進行一些突破？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

On the 2005 kpcs roughly 200 million for TSMC Shanghai and nothing for wafer tech.

就 2005 年的 kpcs 而言，上海台積電的產量約為 2 億，而晶圓技術則沒有。

Other than Taiwan. that that it is all TSMC in Taiwan.

除了台灣。原來都是台灣的台積電。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from Nilcount Mishra from Credit Suisse First Boston.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓的 Nilcount Mishra。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Most of my questions have been answered.

我的大部分問題都得到了解答。

Just 2 quick questions.

只是兩個簡單的問題。

One, what should we model for depreciation 2005?

第一，我們應該為 2005 年折舊建立什麼模型？

I said this afternoon 2005 depreciation will be roughly 10 percent higher than 2004.

我今天下午說過 2005 年的貶值將比 2004 年高出約 10%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the next question is, the Chairman in the afternoon mentioned that there would be severe price -- there is severe price decline on 0.18 and 0.15 technology nodes.

接下來的問題是，主席在下午提到會出現嚴重的價格下跌——0.18和0.15技術節點的價格會出現嚴重的下跌。

I wanted to understand what is the cost reduction possibility that have you on such nodes?

我想了解你們在這些節點上降低成本的可能性有多大？

He did not say that.

他沒有這麼說。

He did not say the prices were moving down severely for 0.15 and 0.18.

他並沒有說價格大幅下跌為 0.15 和 0.18。

However, the utilization is lower for that technology node.

然而，該技術節點的利用率較低。

There's certainly a price pressure.

價格壓力肯定存在。

From a cost point of view, I think we have -- we have both -- we have both continuing to lower our cost from regular -- well, how should I say this?

從成本的角度來看，我認為我們已經——我們兩者都有——我們都在繼續降低常規成本——嗯，我該怎麼說呢？

What we usually do every year, but we're also looking -- we're also looking to some more drastic measures once and looking to our profit steps and trying to review the cost more fundamental way.

我們通常每年都會做的事情，但我們也在尋找 - 我們也在尋找一些更嚴厲的措施，並關注我們的利潤步驟，並試圖以更根本的方式審查成本。

On the other hand, of course, our depreciation, I think we -- we started the year technology earlier than almost everyone else in our segment and of course, we are going into the over-depreciation period sooner than they are.

另一方面，當然，我們的折舊，我認為我們比我們細分市場中的幾乎所有其他人都更早地開始了今年的技術，當然，我們將比他們更早進入過度折舊期。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Could you elaborate a bit more on what other fundamental improvements that you can bring about to reduce costs?

您能否詳細說明您可以帶來哪些其他根本性改進來降低成本？

Well, this is not something we like to discuss in public.

嗯，這不是我們喜歡在公開場合討論的事情。

After all, this is our trade secret.

畢竟，這是我們的商業機密。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Operator, is there any more questions?

接線員，還有問題嗎？

We have a follow-up question from Bhavin Shah from J.P.

我們有來自 J.P. 的 Bhavin Shah 的後續問題。

Morgan Securities.

摩根證券。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Yes, thank you. 90 nanometer more than 10 percent of revenues, you said it's in second half '05 or really specify any further than that?

是的，謝謝。 90 納米佔收入的 10% 以上，您說是在 05 年下半年，還是真的具體說明了這一點？

'05.

'05。

For the full year '05, you saying?

你是說05年全年？

Yes.

是的。

Well, for the full year '05?

那麼，05 年全年？

I'm saying from third quarter 2005 we are going to expect more than 10 percent

我是說從 2005 年第三季開始我們預計會超過 10%

Okay.

好的。

You mentioned the depreciation up 10 percent, would that be the same for the depreciation in the cost of goods sold?

您提到折舊增加 10%，這與銷售商品成本的折舊相同嗎？

Yes, you an assume that.

是的，你會這麼認為。

Because the majority of depreciation goes to cost of goods sold.

因為大部分折舊都用來銷售商品的成本。

Right.

正確的。

And the 110 nanometer node do you expect it to -- in relation to how big your 0.15 micro node became, at one point it was 16 - 17 percent of revenues.

110 奈米節點與您的 0.15 微米節點的規模有多大關係，您是否期望它能夠實現這一目標？在某一時刻，它佔收入的 16% - 17%。

How would you describe the growth prospects for 110 nanometer node as a percentage of revenues?

您如何描述 110 奈米節點佔收入的成長前景？

Bhavin, that the -- you're comparing to -- back to 2002, roughly that time frame.

Bhavin，您所比較的時間是 2002 年，大致上是那個時間範圍。

Isn't that right?

是不是這樣？

That's right.

這是正確的。

I think the, percentage-wise, it would lower compared to that period of time because the graphics application at the time was the main driver for that node.

我認為，從百分比來看，與那段時間相比會較低，因為當時的圖形應用程式是該節點的主要驅動力。

But the -- now we have other applications going into a different -- people are going to 0.13, 0.11, 90 nanometer, it's more spread out.

但是，現在我們有其他應用進入不同的領域，人們將採用 0.13、0.11、90 奈米，它更加分散。

So the -- the percentage will be lower compared to the 16, 17 percent numbers.

因此，與 16%、17% 的數字相比，這個百分比將會較低。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We have a follow-up questions from Michael McConnell from Pacific Crest Securities.

Pacific Crest Securities 的 Michael McConnell 向我們提出了後續問題。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just looking at the comments on Q2 capacity being up more than 10 percent, I think was your comment.

只要看看有關第二季度產能成長超過 10% 的評論，我想這就是您的評論。

Unless I'm mistaken here, I mean, that reasonably implies that utilizations will not be troufed[ph] in Q1.

除非我在這裡弄錯了，否則這合理地意味著第一季的利用率不會受到影響。

Would you agree with that or do you think it's just too early to really get into that.

您是否同意這一點，或者您是否認為現在真正進入這一點還為時過早？

I think we actually discussed that earlier.

我想我們之前確實討論過這個問題。

I think you're right in saying it's still somewhat early to talk about -- to say whether that will be the trough in first quarter or not.

我認為你說的對，現在談論這是否會成為第一季的低谷還為時過早。

I think we have a chance but it's really not clear, yet.

我認為我們有機會，但目前還不清楚。

Okay.

好的。

And then looking, just for our modeling purposes, on the 2 line items, they're always a little bit tough to model.

然後，出於我們建模的目的，在這兩個行項目上，它們總是有點難以建模。

The net nonoperating income and the investment income.

營業外收入淨額和投資收益。

If you could just kind of give us an idea where that going to be tracking sequentially.

如果您能給我們一個想法，它將按順序追蹤到哪裡。

Nonoperating income?

營業外收入？

Yes.

是的。

The net nonoperating income line and the investment income.

營業外收入淨額和投資收益。

Okay.

好的。

This is, I think, the most difficult to model.

我認為這是最難建模的。

For us too.

對我們來說也是如此。

I think you probably can assume it's less than 1 percent of revenue.

我想你可能可以假設它不到收入的 1%。

Less than 1 percent of revenue.

不到收入的 1%。

And then I won't even - I might as well try, I mean, I know this is even tougher, the tax rate for roughly -- ?

然後我什至不會 - 我不妨嘗試一下，我的意思是，我知道這更加困難，稅率大致為 - ？

Use 13 percent.

使用 13%。

Actually 13 percent for Q1?

第一季實際上是 13%？

Yes, 13. 13.

是的，13。13。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

There's another follow-up question from Dan Heyler from Merrill Lynch.

美林證券的 Dan Heyler 提出了另一個後續問題。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just 1 quick one on 90 nanometer.

只需 1 次 90 奈米快速測試。

As you look as though you have a fair amount of confidence in this capacity ramp for 90 nanometer and wireless seems to be the first driver.

看起來您對 90 奈米的容量提升很有信心，而無線似乎是第一個驅動因素。

Since normally these are a new product cycle, wondering how much flexibility do you have in your CapEx and whether or not -- and you have a whole lot of confidence as to whether or not those new products will fold or not.

由於通常這些是一個新產品週期，所以想知道您的資本支出有多大的靈活性以及是否 - 並且您對這些新產品是否會折疊充滿信心。

Or is it that you're seeing kind of existing products in your fab that are migrating over that gives you a lot of confidence to do the products that you can already see.

或者您是否看到晶圓廠中的現有產品正在遷移，這讓您對生產已經看到的產品充滿信心。

Or third, potentially is -- is there IDM business or products out there that you see are definitely coming over from other fabs into your absymus[ph].

或者第三，可能是 - 是否有 IDM 業務或產品，您看到肯定會從其他晶圓廠轉移到您的 Absymus[ph]。

Kind of wondering, can you give us a little color where that confidence in the volume needs there is coming from.

有點想知道，您能否給我們一些解釋，對數量需求的信心是從何而來的。

I imagine there is various possibilities.

我想像有多種可能性。

Well, Dan, basically -- with the -- with sort of industry samplings, you will see new products being developed.

嗯，丹，基本上 - 通過 - 通過某種行業抽樣，你會看到新產品正在開發中。

Demographic's[ph] a good example.

人口統計就是一個很好的例子。

They have a new product every -- almost every quarter and they -- naturally they will migrate from 0.13 to 0.11 to a 90 nanometers.

他們幾乎每個季度都會推出一款新產品，他們自然會從 0.13 奈米遷移到 0.11 奈米，再到 90 奈米。

We're seeing the tapeouts[ph].

我們正在看到流片[ph]。

We're seeing the tapeouts for other applications.

我們正在看到其他應用程式的流片。

The applications we just mentioned earlier.

我們剛才提到的應用程式。

We have product tapeouts and we are -- some of them are being verified and qualified.

我們有產品流片，其中一些正在接受驗證和鑑定。

And we saw past experiences with those customers.

我們看到了這些客戶過去的經驗。

We are pretty know the ramp pattern.

我們非常了解坡道模式。

So, that's how we view this -- this outlook for this year.

這就是我們對今年前景的看法。

And you know we're been working on this for the past -- for over 18 months.

您知道，過去 18 個月以來，我們一直在致力於此。

It's not something I just happened out of the blue.

這不是我突然發生的事。

Sure.

當然。

Color enough for you, Dan?

丹，顏色對你來說夠了嗎？

Well, I mean, you've got, obviously aside from the normal product migration that's pretty natural.

嗯，我的意思是，顯然除了正常的產品遷移之外，這是很自然的。

I wonder if it's exposing you into some new applications that you guys have been graded as being able [Inaudible-bad tape] new applications on new technology nodes.

我想知道這是否會讓您接觸到一些新的應用程序，您已經被評為能夠在新技術節點上使用[聽不清楚的壞磁帶]新應用程式。

Are you seeing that you're opening up some new doors?

您是否發現自己正在打開一些新的大門？

Carlos has been strong, does not -- is wireless pro is the larger percentage of your business as a result of that?

卡洛斯一直很強大，不是嗎？因此，無線專業人士在您的業務中所佔的比例更大嗎？

Oh, wireless.

哦，無線。

I think if you look at a past year or 2 quarterly every quarter has increased from a percentage point of view of our revenue.

我認為，如果你看過去一年或兩個季度，從我們收入的百分比來看，每個季度都有所增加。

Is that where the incremental, you think, growth is -- the highest growth is where 90 nanometer is coming from and that's likely to be the case in '06?

您認為這就是增量成長的地方嗎？最高成長是 90 奈米的來源，06 年可能就是這種情況？

Incremental.

增加的。

What do you mean by incremental?

你所說的增量是什麼意思？

I mean, is that -- of that pie, of that piece of the pie that's growing, right, 90 nanometer is the fastest growth.

我的意思是，在這塊餡餅中，在正在增長的那塊餡餅中，90 奈米是增長最快的。

The main drive there is it wireless?

主要驅動器有無線嗎？

And do you expect that to continue to be a big part of the pie in '06?

您預計這將繼續成為 06 年的重要組成部分嗎？

Is it [audible].

是嗎[音頻]。

Is it performance, is it low power?

是效能還是低功耗？

I'm just trying to get a sense of what is really going to drive them forward.

我只是想了解真正推動他們前進的因素是什麼。

Without having a exact number, but I assume, Dan, that maybe a 50/50 may be a good number out of going forward -- going forward.

沒有確切的數字，但我認為，丹，也許 50/50 可能是一個很好的數字——繼續前進。

Right.

正確的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Operator, we will only be open for 1 last question.

接線員，我們只回答最後一個問題。

We have a follow-up question from Sunil Gupta from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的蘇尼爾古普塔向我們提出了後續問題。

Over to you.

交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wanted to follow-up on the earlier comments about inventory digestion largely over by end of Q1.

我想對早先關於庫存消化的評論進行跟進，這些評論基本上在第一季末結束。

And I wanted to get your impression on -- do you think this excess inventory digestion is going to be largely over just for your customers or the product that TSMC's making or do you see that as a industrywide phenomena that bulk of this excess would be digested by end of Q1.

我想聽聽您的印象 - 您認為這種過剩庫存的消化將在很大程度上結束於您的客戶或台積電生產的產品，還是您認為作為一種全行業現象，大部分過剩庫存將被消化到第一季末。

Sunil, I think you just have to go to everyone's own conference to ask the question of them.

蘇尼爾，我認為你只需要去每個人自己的會議上問他們的問題。

We can only answer for ourselves.

我們只能為自己回答。

On the other hand, [inaudible] of course, actually we have broad customer base also -- it brought us the applications.

另一方面，[聽不清楚]當然，實際上我們也擁有廣泛的客戶群——它為我們帶來了應用程式。

So, until you can make your assumption your model from that point of view.

所以，直到你可以從這個角度做出你的假設你的模型。

Would you from your perspective -- do you think you have succeeded in taking share of business from some of your other traditional foundry customers or some of the hybrid foundry providers?

從您的角度來看，您是否認為您已經成功地從其他一些傳統代工客戶或一些混合代工提供者那裡奪取了業務份額？

It is certainly our goal to increase our market share every year and the last year, 2004, we had -- I mean, in the first 3 quarters we had the capacity constraint.

我們的目標當然是每年增加我們的市場份額，而去年，也就是 2004 年，我們——我的意思是，在前三個季度，我們遇到了產能限制。

So, we probably lost some business.

所以，我們可能失去了一些生意。

This year we have the capacity and we're definitely going to -- we are, actually, working to get every share that we can get our hands on.

今年我們有能力，而且我們肯定會——實際上，我們正​​在努力爭取我們能拿到的每一股。

And you think in last quarter and the current quarter you are beginning to take the share away?

您認為在上個季度和本季您開始奪走份額嗎？

Is it already showing?

已經顯示了嗎？

Well, we'll have to look at the numbers.

好吧，我們必須看看數字。

Okay.

好的。

I think we will let the number speak.

我想我們會讓數字說話。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Miss Ho, we have cleared the question queue.

何小姐，我們已經清空問題隊列了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, thank you very much for attending the conference and we should have a good year.

好的，非常感謝您參加這次會議，我們應該會度過美好的一年。

Good night.

晚安。