Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's Conference Call to discuss Third Quarter 2023 Results. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Tractor Supply Company 的電話會議，討論 2023 年第三季業績。 （操作員說明）請注意，未經曳引機供應公司書面授權，不得全部或部分複製此通話。提醒一下，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mrs. Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人瑪麗溫皮爾金頓 (Mary Winn Pilkington) 女士，她是拖拉機供應公司投資者和公共關係高級副總裁。瑪麗·溫，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time to join us today. On the call today for our prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our CEO; and Kurt Barton, our CFO. Seth Estep, our EVP and Chief Merchandising Officer, will join us for the Q&A session. Please note that we have made a supplemental slide presentation available on our website to accompany today's earnings release.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您今天抽空加入我們。今天，我們的執行長哈爾·勞頓 (Hal Lawton) 參加了我們準備好的電話會議。以及我們的財務長 Kurt Barton。我們的執行副總裁兼首席行銷長 Seth Estep 將參加我們的問答環節。請注意，我們在網站上提供了補充幻燈片演示，以配合今天的收益發布。

Now let me reference the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.

現在讓我參考一下1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中的安全港條款。本次電話會議可能包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，包括公司未來的營運和財務業績。在許多情況下，這些風險和不確定性超出了我們的控制範圍。儘管該公司認為其前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的，但它不能保證此類預期或其任何前瞻性陳述將被證明是正確的，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。

Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call.

今天發布的新聞稿末尾以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中反映的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。本次電話會議所包含的資訊僅截至討論日期準確。投資者不應假設該聲明將在以後繼續有效。 Tractor Supply 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的任何資訊的義務。

(Operator Instructions) I appreciate your cooperation. We will be available after the call for follow-up.

（操作員說明）感謝您的合作。我們將在致電後進行跟進。

Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Hal.

現在我很高興將電話轉給哈爾。

Thanks, Mary Winn, and thank you to everyone for taking the time to join us this morning. To start, I would like to express my sincere thanks and appreciation to my fellow 50,000 Tractor Supply and Petsense team members. As always, they lived our mission and values, delivered legendary service to our customers, did a great job being nimble in the quarter and continued to deliver against our strategic initiatives.

謝謝瑪麗溫，也謝謝大家今天早上抽出時間來參加我們的活動。首先，我要向 Tractor Supply 和 Petsense 的 5 萬名團隊成員表達誠摯的感謝和讚賞。一如既往，他們實踐了我們的使命和價值觀，為我們的客戶提供了傳奇的服務，在本季度敏捷地完成了出色的工作，並繼續實現我們的戰略計劃。

At Tractor Supply, the underlying health of our business remains strong. We continue to achieve substantial market share gains. Our customer trends and customer engagement are robust and our Life Out Here strategic initiatives remain on track. Entering the third quarter, we had a sharp focus on the impact of the evolving macro environment and the impact of that environment on our customers' retail spending patterns. Despite this view, our quarter was more challenging than we initially expected. The primary drivers of our underperformance were less-than-ideal weather conditions as well as our customers continuing to be discerning with their spending.

在 Tractor Supply，我們業務的基本健康狀況依然強勁。我們持續取得可觀的市佔率成長。我們的客戶趨勢和客戶參與度強勁，我們的 Life Out Here 策略計畫仍處於正軌。進入第三季度，我們重點關注不斷變化的宏觀環境的影響以及該環境對客戶零售支出模式的影響。儘管有這種觀點，我們的季度比我們最初預期的更具挑戰性。我們表現不佳的主要原因是天氣條件不太理想，以及我們的客戶對他們的支出仍然挑剔。

On the weather impact for the quarter. As we shared in our July earnings call, we anticipated that our compares would ease through the quarter as we were lapping one of the worst droughts in a decade. We were not assuming a significant benefit from the weather, but rather that it would not continue to be a drag on our performance. In fact, it was a drag. We estimate that the unfavorable weather conditions in the third quarter contributed more than 1 point of comp to our sales shortfall compared to our expectations.

關於本季天氣的影響。正如我們在 7 月的財報電話會議上分享的那樣，我們預計整個季度的比較將會有所緩解，因為我們正在經歷十年來最嚴重的乾旱之一。我們不認為天氣會帶來重大好處，而是認為它不會繼續拖累我們的表現。事實上，這是一個拖累。我們估計，與我們的預期相比，第三季不利的天氣條件對我們的銷售缺口造成了超過 1 個百分點的影響。

While we never like to call out the adverse impacts of the weather on our business, there is no doubt that the challenging conditions continued to weigh on our sales this year as it relates to weather.

雖然我們從不喜歡指出天氣對我們業務的不利影響，但毫無疑問，充滿挑戰的條件繼續影響我們今年的銷售，因為它與天氣有關。

In Q3, we had extreme heat and drought in [Texa-homa] and, to a lesser degree, the Midwest, and also we had excessive rainfall and the absence of cool weather in other areas like the Northeast. As an example, Texa-homa , which makes up a little over 15% of our sales, we saw extreme temperatures and dryness there for most of the quarter. In fact, in Austin, Texas, as an example, there were 44 consecutive days of temperatures over 100 degrees in the third quarter. And for perspective, this was twice as many as Q3 of last year.

第三季度，[德克薩斯州-霍馬州]以及中西部地區出現了極端炎熱和乾旱，而東北部等其他地區也出現了降雨過多且天氣不涼爽的情況。以德克薩斯州霍馬州為例，該州占我們銷售額的 15% 多一點，我們在本季度的大部分時間都看到了極端的氣溫和乾燥。事實上，以德州奧斯汀為例，第三季已經連續44天氣溫超過100度。從角度來看，這一數字是去年第三季的兩倍。

Additionally, last year in the third quarter, we benefited from both the emergency response from Hurricane Ian and a shift of cooler fall temperatures in the last few weeks of the quarter in some of our markets. This year, we did not have these events working in our favor. In the quarter, the emergency response from Hurricane Adelia was much smaller than the prior year and a wave of summer-like temperatures continued into September and, in fact, even now into late-October.

此外，去年第三季度，我們受益於颶風伊恩的緊急應變以及本季最後幾週一些市場秋季氣溫的變化。今年，這些事件並沒有對我們有利。本季度，颶風阿德莉亞的緊急應變比去年小得多，一波類似夏季的氣溫持續到 9 月，事實上，甚至現在已經持續到 10 月下旬。

Turning to the macro environment. As we shared last quarter, we believe that due to the cumulative effects of many factors, our customers are showing signs of strength. Examples of these factors include inflation, higher credit card balances and the resumption of school loan payments. Additionally, consumers continue to shift their spending from goods to services, reverting back to pre-pandemic levels. In the context of this shift, though, we believe that they remain more committed to the Out Here lifestyle and that our business is stickier than more discretionary components of retail. But nonetheless, to some degree, we've been affected by this shift.

轉向宏觀環境。正如我們在上季度分享的那樣，我們相信，由於多種因素的累積影響，我們的客戶正在顯示出強勁的跡象。這些因素的例子包括通貨膨脹、信用卡餘額增加和學校貸款支付的恢復。此外，消費者繼續將支出從商品轉向服務，恢復到疫情前的水平。不過，在這種轉變的背景下，我們相信他們仍然更加致力於「Out Here」生活方式，並且我們的業務比零售業中更自由裁量的部分更具黏性。但儘管如此，在某種程度上，我們還是受到了這種轉變的影響。

Now turning to the numbers for the third quarter. The team delivered net sales growth of 4.3% with a modest comparable sales decrease of 0.4%. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter were $2.33, an increase of 11% over the prior year.

現在轉向第三季的數據。該團隊的淨銷售額成長了 4.3%，可比銷售額小幅下降了 0.4%。該季度稀釋後每股收益為 2.33 美元，比上年同期增長 11%。

Now let's shift to some highlights for the quarter. Comp transactions were flat to the prior year, offset by an average ticket decline of 0.3%. The average ticket performance was driven by a decline in units per transaction with average unit retail remaining relatively strong. July was our best performing period of the quarter with positive comps. Both August and September comps were negative given the seasonal trends I mentioned earlier.

現在讓我們來看看本季的一些亮點。補償交易量與去年持平，但被平均門票下降 0.3% 所抵消。平均門票表現是由每筆交易數量下降所推動的，而平均數量零售仍然相對強勁。七月是我們本季表現最好的時期，業績良好。考慮到我之前提到的季節性趨勢，八月和九月的比較都是負面的。

Importantly, our active customer counts are stable and growing low-single digits. Also importantly, our reactivated as well as new customer counts are also both positive and growing. E-commerce achieved sales growth in the high-single digits with strong conversion performance. Our Buy Online, Deliver from Store program was up over 80%. And on a rolling 12-month basis, very notably, our digital sales have now surpassed $1 billion.

重要的是，我們的活躍客戶數量穩定且以低個位數成長。同樣重要的是，我們重新激活的客戶數量以及新客戶數量也都是積極且不斷增長的。電商銷售額實現高個位數成長，轉換表現強勁。我們的「網上購買、店內送貨」計劃增長了 80% 以上。值得注意的是，在連續 12 個月的基礎上，我們的數位銷售額現已超過 10 億美元。

Our consumable, usable and edible products represented a meaningful portion of our business in the quarter, and these businesses continue to outperform our overall sales comp results with continued strength in categories like dry dog food, cat food, poultry feed, lubricants and shavings, just to name a few. CUE continues to be one of our structural advantages and these categories and products represent the strength of our core business, and they are what drives footsteps into our store.

我們的消耗品、可用和食用產品在本季度的業務中佔了很大的一部分，這些業務的表現繼續優於我們的整體銷售業績，在乾狗糧、貓糧、家禽飼料、潤滑劑和刨花等類別中持續保持強勢，僅舉幾例。 CUE 仍然是我們的結構優勢之一，這些類別和產品代表了我們核心業務的實力，也是人們走進我們商店的動力。

The gains in these categories were offset by declines in our late spring/summer seasonal product and big ticket categories as well as softness in demand for those fall/winter product categories that usually begin to see some growth at the end of the quarter due to the unseasonably warm weather. Big ticket performance remained under pressure, down in the mid-single digits, which was a slight improvement from the first half of the year. If I step back, overall, though, we continue to gain share across categories online and in-store and continue, as I said earlier, to see strong customer trends.

這些類別的收益被春夏末季節性產品和大宗商品類別的下降以及秋冬季產品類別的需求疲軟所抵消，這些類別通常在季度末開始出現一些增長，因為異常的溫暖天氣。大票表現仍承壓，下跌幅度為個位數中段，較上半年略有改善。不過，如果我退一步說，總體而言，我們將繼續在網上和店內各個類別中獲得份額，正如我之前所說，我們將繼續看到強勁的客戶趨勢。

On the customer front, our Neighbor's Club membership base represented more than 77% of our sales for the quarter. We're seeing continued favorable trends from our loyalty members. Retention rates have never been higher, and our Neighbor's Club members continue comping at a faster rate than our overall sales performance. And importantly, our high-value customers again reached another record count in the quarter.

在客戶方面，我們的 Neighbor's Club 會員基礎占我們本季銷售額的 77% 以上。我們看到我們的忠誠會員持續呈現有利的趨勢。保留率從未如此之高，我們的鄰居俱樂部會員的競爭速度繼續快於我們的整體銷售業績。重要的是，我們的高價值客戶數量在本季再次創下新紀錄。

In just over a year since launching Neighbor's Club at Petsense, penetration of sales to our members now stands at over 65%, and we continue to benefit from the cross-shopping between the 2 brands as we grow our share of wallet with these customers and focus on Pets Out Here in our collaboration between the 2 brands.

自從在Petsense 推出Neighbor's Club 以來的短短一年多時間裡，我們會員的銷售滲透率現已超過65%，隨著我們在這些客戶中所佔的份額不斷增加，我們將繼續從這兩個品牌之間的交叉購物中受益。兩個品牌合作的重點是 Pets Out Here。

A couple of trends that I mentioned last quarter did continue into this quarter, and those are, one, customers are continuing to increase in their usage of credit; and two, shoppers continue to seek out value, particularly in lower-income customer cohorts. Importantly, our overall customer satisfaction scores hit another new all-time high as we continue to invest in our team and they continue to do a fantastic job providing best-in-class customer service, a hallmark of Tractor Supply. Through the third quarter, our customer satisfaction scores have increased and experienced an improvement every week year-over-year, since 2021.

我上個季度提到的幾個趨勢確實延續到了本季度，其中之一是客戶的信貸使用量持續增加；第二，購物者繼續尋求價值，特別是在低收入客戶群中。重要的是，隨著我們繼續投資於我們的團隊，我們的整體客戶滿意度得分再創新高，他們繼續出色地提供一流的客戶服務，這是 Tractor Supply 的標誌。自 2021 年以來，到第三季度，我們的客戶滿意度分數不斷提高，每週都逐年提高。

We've made significant progress in our Life Out Here strategy. We now have just over 35% of our chain or 780 stores that are in the Project Fusion layout, and our Garden Center transformation is now active in over 420 locations. We continue to be very pleased with the strategic benefits and the financial returns of the store-level investments.

我們的「生活在這裡」策略取得了重大進展。現在，我們有超過 35% 的連鎖店或 780 家商店採用 Project Fusion 佈局，而我們的花園中心改造目前正在 420 多個地點進行。我們仍然對商店級投資的策略效益和財務回報感到非常滿意。

Our Orscheln Farm and Home acquisition remains on track with nearly 50 stores converted to the Tractor Supply brand. And during the quarter, we completed the sale of the Orscheln store support center and the distribution center as planned. Year-to-date, we've opened 51 new Tractor Supply stores in 10 set locations. Our team has done an excellent job executing our real estate projects this year and getting us back to a normalized cadence of new store openings in spite of a tough backdrop in the broader construction market.

我們對 Orscheln Farm and Home 的收購仍在進行中，近 50 家商店已轉換為 Tractor Supply 品牌。並且在本季度，我們按計劃完成了Orscheln商店支援中心和配送中心的出售。今年迄今為止，我們已在 10 個地點開設了 51 家新的 Tractor Supply 商店。儘管整體建築市場情況嚴峻，我們的團隊今年在執行房地產項目方面表現出色，並讓我們恢復了新店開幕的正常節奏。

During the quarter, the real estate team also successfully executed our first sale-leaseback transaction with the sale of 10 stores. In addition, the team has about 35 fee development sites in the works. I anticipate our real estate strategy will continue to be a source of increasing strength for Tractor Supply over the next few years.

本季度，房地產團隊也成功執行了我們的第一筆售後回租交易，出售了 10 家商店。此外，該團隊還有大約 35 個收費開發站點正在建置中。我預計我們的房地產策略將繼續成為未來幾年拖拉機供應公司不斷增強實力的來源。

Given our performance through the third quarter and our outlook for the fourth quarter, we're updating our sales and earnings guidance for 2023, and Kurt will share some more details on our outlook later in the call.

鑑於我們第三季的業績和第四季的前景，我們正在更新 2023 年的銷售和盈利指引，庫爾特將在稍後的電話會議中分享有關我們前景的更多細節。

Before I hand it over to Kurt, if I just step back for a moment, if you told me in January of 2020 that we would nearly double our top line sales and earnings and deliver strong cash return to shareholders, while increasing our capital investment and growth initiatives and investing in team member wages and investing in brand building, and doing all this through a global pandemic, major disruptions in global supply chains, rapidly changing consumer shifts, also rapidly escalating costs including the highest consumer inflation in 40 years, it would have been hard to imagine.

在我將其交給庫爾特之前，如果我退後一步，如果您在2020 年1 月告訴我，我們將使我們的營收和利潤幾乎翻倍，並向股東提供強勁的現金回報，同時增加我們的資本投資和成長計劃、投資於團隊成員薪資、投資於品牌建設，並透過全球大流行、全球供應鏈的重大中斷、消費者的快速變化以及成本的迅速上升（包括40 年來最高的消費者通膨）來完成這一切，這將已經很難想像了。

But that's exactly what this team has delivered. Over the last 4 years, we've added $7 billion in incremental sales. We've grown our market share significantly and we've increased our earnings by 115% and returned over $3.2 billion of cash to shareholders. Our resilient needs-based business model has a proven history of growing through various economic conditions.

但這正是這個團隊所交付的。在過去 4 年裡，我們的銷售額增加了 70 億美元。我們的市佔率顯著成長，獲利增加了 115%，並向股東返還了超過 32 億美元的現金。我們以需求為基礎的彈性業務模式有著在各種經濟條件下不斷發展的歷史。

Our customers and team members are dedicated to the Out Here lifestyle, and they prioritize it as it is their authentic lifestyle. Our customers (inaudible) home owners, landowners, pet owners and animal owners. We believe that the softness we're seeing is unique to transitory conditions and weather and consumer spending patterns. We continue to have a long-term structural macro trends that are favorable and sustainable. And as the market leader, we have substantial competitive advantages.

我們的客戶和團隊成員致力於 Out Here 生活方式，他們優先考慮它，因為這是他們真正的生活方式。我們的客戶（聽不清楚）是房主、土地所有者、寵物主人和動物主人。我們認為，我們所看到的疲軟現像是短暫的條件、天氣和消費者支出模式所特有的。我們持續保持有利且可持續的長期結構性宏觀趨勢。身為市場領導者，我們擁有顯著的競爭優勢。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Kurt.

現在我將把電話轉給庫爾特。

Thank you, Hal and hello to everyone on the call. There are 3 key observations about our business that build on Hal's comments that I'd like to share before diving into the quarterly results.

謝謝哈爾，向通話中的每個人問好。在深入了解季度業績之前，我想與大家分享基於哈爾評論的 3 個關於我們業務的關鍵觀察。

First, looking at the impact of weather. There are some years weather works to our favor and others, where it clearly works against us. We've certainly tried to be transparent over the years as to the impact from the volatility related to weather, both in favorable and unfavorable events. No doubt, 2023 will be a year, where weather goes down as unfavorable for our business. From a warm January, a late start to the spring that never materialized over most of our markets to a hot and dry summer across major markets like Texahoma and the Midwest, our seasonal businesses have been under pressure all year.

首先，看看天氣的影響。有些年份天氣對我們有利，而有些年份則明顯對我們不利。多年來，我們確實努力對天氣相關波動的影響保持透明，無論是有利的還是不利的事件。毫無疑問，2023 年天氣將對我們的業務不利。從溫暖的一月，到我們大多數市場從未出現的春季遲到，再到德克薩斯州和中西部等主要市場的炎熱乾燥的夏季，我們的季節性業務全年都面臨著壓力。

Second, our execution continues to be strong. Our Life Out Here initiatives are performing well and are positively impacting our results. Neighbor's Club, Project Fusion and Garden Centers, pet and digital initiatives are all driving top line growth.

其次，我們的執行力依然強勁。我們的「生活在這裡」計劃表現良好，並對我們的業績產生了積極影響。鄰居俱樂部、Project Fusion 和花園中心、寵物和數位計畫都在推動營收成長。

Third, we view the softness in our customers' retail spending to be unique to the macro challenges in the current environment. Our customer engagement is strong and our initiatives are driving positive results. We remain committed to investing for long-term growth, but we will be agile as we navigate the current environment. We are committed to continuing our track record of long-term value creation for our shareholders.

第三，我們認為客戶零售支出的疲軟是當前環境中宏觀挑戰所特有的。我們的客戶參與度很高，我們的措施正在取得積極成果。我們仍然致力於投資以實現長期成長，但我們將靈活應對當前環境。我們致力於持續為股東創造長期價值。

Now turning to our third quarter results. While our sales trends were below our expectations, the team managed the environment well, controlling what we can control. We also remain steadfast in our commitment to being the dependable supplier for Life Out Here. Our third quarter top-line results were driven by strong and consistent Q growth, offset by below-trend seasonal performance on a weak summer demand and the lack of early fall seasonal sales, and discretionary big-ticket sales remained under pressure.

現在轉向我們的第三季業績。雖然我們的銷售趨勢低於我們的預期，但團隊很好地管理了環境，控制了我們可以控制的事情。我們也堅定地致力於成為 Life Out Here 的可靠供應商。我們第三季的營收業績是由強勁且持續的季度成長推動的，但被夏季需求疲軟導致的低於趨勢的季節性業績和缺乏初秋季節性銷售所抵消，而且可自由支配的大件銷售仍然面臨壓力。

Our comparable store sales growth was solid in regions such as the Southeast and the Far West. The performance of these geo regions was offset by pressure in Texahoma and the Midwest, where heat and drought trends added incremental pressure on consumer demand as well as the warm start to the fall in the Northern markets. Comparable transactions were flat for the quarter with growth in our core year-round categories being offset by reduced demand for our seasonal categories.

我們在東南部和遠西部等地區的可比商店銷售成長強勁。這些地理區域的表現被德州和中西部的壓力所抵消，這些地區的高溫和乾旱趨勢增加了消費者需求的壓力，以及北方市場秋季的溫暖開局。本季的可比交易量持平，我們的核心全年類別的成長被季節性類別需求的減少所抵消。

We had a modest decline in the average comp ticket. Our average unit retail was up 3% to 4%. The benefit of the growth in our average unit retail was offset by the softness in big ticket and declines in seasonal categories, which run at a higher average ticket. Additionally, but to a lesser extent, we continue to experience softer sales in discretionary and impulse add-on items, putting pressure on the average units per transaction.

我們的平均補償票略有下降。我們的平均單位零售量增加了 3% 至 4%。我們的平均單位零售量成長的好處被大件商品的疲軟和季節性類別的下降所抵消，這些類別的平均商品價格較高。此外，但在較小程度上，我們繼續經歷非必需品和衝動附加商品的銷售疲軟，這給每筆交易的平均單位帶來了壓力。

Moving down our income statement. Our gross profit increased 7.3% to $1.25 billion. Gross margin increased 101 basis points to 36.7% from 35.6% in the prior year's third quarter. Gross margin was a highlight for the quarter as we continue to maintain strong product margin from our ongoing execution of everyday low price strategy.

向下移動我們的損益表。我們的毛利成長 7.3%，達到 12.5 億美元。毛利率從去年第三季的 35.6% 成長 101 個基點至 36.7%。毛利率是本季的一大亮點，因為我們持續執行每日低價策略，並持續保持強勁的產品利潤率。

At a time when the overall promotional environment across retail has picked up modestly, our large and robust membership of Neighbor's Club offers us a great way to provide value. Our loyalty program allows us, together with our vendors, to strategically target value propositions for our customers.

在整個零售業的整體促銷環境略有好轉之際，我們鄰居俱樂部龐大而強大的會員資格為我們提供了提供價值的好方法。我們的忠誠度計劃使我們能夠與供應商一起策略性地為客戶提供價值主張。

The gross margin rate increase was primarily attributable to lower transportation costs driven by improvements in the global supply chain and efficiencies from our new distribution center in Ohio. Product mix pressured gross margins given the strength in Q. This was somewhat offset by the margin improvement from lower big ticket sales, which carried a lower gross margin rate.

毛利率的成長主要歸因於全球供應鏈的改善以及我們俄亥俄州新配送中心的效率所帶來的運輸成本降低。鑑於第二季的強勁表現，產品組合對毛利率造成壓力。這在一定程度上被大宗商品銷售下降帶來的利潤率改善所抵消，而大宗商品銷售的毛利率較低。

As a percent of net sales, our selling, general and administrative expenses, including depreciation and amortization, increased 38 basis points to 26.7%. The increase in SG&A as a percent of net sales was primarily attributable to our planned growth investments, which included higher depreciation and amortization and the onboarding of our new DC, along with some lost fixed cost leverage due to the decline in comparable store sales. Additionally, consistent with last quarter, higher medical claims also contributed to the increase in SG&A. We have made adjustments to our benefits program and will continue to do so. We don't anticipate this to be a headwind in 2024.

我們的銷售、一般和管理費用（包括折舊和攤提）佔淨銷售額的百分比增加了 38 個基點，達到 26.7%。 SG&A 佔淨銷售額百分比的成長主要歸因於我們計劃的成長投資，其中包括更高的折舊和攤銷以及新 DC 的啟用，以及由於可比商店銷售額下降而導致的一些固定成本槓桿損失。此外，與上季一致，較高的醫療索賠也促進了銷售管理費用的增加。我們已經對福利計劃進行了調整，並將繼續這樣做。我們預計這不會成為 2024 年的阻力。

During the quarter, we completed the planned sale leaseback of 10 Tractor Supply store locations, benefiting SG&A by approximately 70 basis points net of transaction and repair costs. Additionally, the increase in SG&A was partially offset by a onetime benefit to depreciation expense of approximately 35 basis points or $11 million pretax. This benefit is attributed to a change in the useful lives of assets for certain remodeled stores due to a reassessment of lease terms to better represent the economic profile of these investments.

本季度，我們完成了 10 個 Tractor Supply 商店地點的計劃售後回租，扣除交易和維修成本後，SG&A 受益約 70 個基點。此外，SG&A 的成長被約 35 個基點或稅前 1,100 萬美元的一次性折舊費用收益部分抵銷。這項效益歸因於某些改造商店的資產使用壽命的變化，這是由於重新評估租賃條款以更好地反映這些投資的經濟狀況而導致的。

As I reflect on the SG&A performance overall, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that our operations team did a great job scaling our core variable cost to our sales performance. Our distribution center teams achieved some of the best cut times, fill rates and overall productivity measures in years, and our store teams did a great job balancing store payroll to scale back while also maintaining the right level of customer support and driving our best-in-class customer satisfaction scores.

當我反思 SG&A 整體績效時，如果我沒有提到我們的營運團隊在將我們的核心可變成本擴展到我們的銷售績效方面做得很好，那我就是失職了。我們的配送中心團隊實現了多年來最好的削減時間、填充率和整體生產力指標，我們的商店團隊在平衡商店工資以縮減規模的同時也保持了適當水平的客戶支持並推動我們的最佳發展一流的客戶滿意度分數。

Overall, the team had strong execution and scaled our core variable costs well in this environment. As an example, to further illustrate, nearly 85% of our core SG&A dollar growth year-over-year represents investments in our strategic growth initiatives. My appreciation goes out to the team for controlling what we could control. For the quarter, operating profit margin was 10%, a 62 basis point improvement from the prior year.

總體而言，該團隊具有強大的執行力，並在這種環境下很好地擴展了我們的核心可變成本。舉例來說，為了進一步說明，我們核心 SG&A 美元年增率的近 85% 是對我們策略性成長計畫的投資。我感謝團隊控制我們能控制的事情。本季營業利益率為 10%，較上年同期提高 62 個基點。

Turning now to our balance sheet. Merchandise inventories were $2.8 billion at the end of the third quarter, flat to the prior year on a per store basis. We are managing it closely and continue to be very pleased with the quality and position of our inventory. Our in-stock rates are the best they've been in over 2 years. In addition, our inventory shrink improved year-over-year. With strong annualized cash flows, we continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet with a leverage ratio of around 2x. Our long-term debt has no nearing maturities and is fixed at very attractive rates.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。第三季末，每家商店的商品庫存為 28 億美元，與去年同期持平。我們正在密切管理，並對庫存的品質和狀況繼續感到非常滿意。我們的庫存價格是兩年多來最好的。此外，我們的庫存縮減情況較去年同期有所改善。憑藉強勁的年化現金流，我們持續保持健康的資產負債表，槓桿比率約為2倍。我們的長期債務沒有接近到期日，固定利率非常有吸引力。

Now let me turn to our updated fiscal 2023 financial outlook. For the year, we now anticipate net sales in the range of $14.5 billion to $14.6 billion and comp store sales even with last year. Our full year operating margin rate is expected to be in the range of 10.1% to 10.2% with net income of $1.1 billion to $1.11 billion. Diluted EPS is forecast to be $10 to $10.10. This includes a net after-tax benefit of about $0.08 in Q4 for our remaining sale-leaseback transactions this year.

現在讓我來談談我們最新的 2023 財年財務展望。我們目前預計今年的淨銷售額將在 145 億美元至 146 億美元之間，商店銷售額與去年持平。我們的全年營業利潤率預計在 10.1% 至 10.2% 之間，淨利潤為 11 億美元至 11.1 億美元。稀釋後每股收益預計為 10 美元至 10.10 美元。這包括我們今年剩餘的售後回租交易在第四季度獲得的約 0.08 美元的稅後淨收益。

We continue to forecast anticipated capital expenditures for the year in the range of $800 million to $850 million or about $725 million to $775 million net of our capital needs for the fixed fee real estate strategy that we shared last quarter. This higher level reflects the move to own development for select new store growth that will be funded through the sale of existing stores. It's important to note that the proceeds from the sale of our owned stores are expected to offset the incremental capital outlay under the development program. The combined transactions are expected to be relatively neutral to our cash position.

我們繼續預測今年的預期資本支出在 8 億至 8.5 億美元之間，扣除我們上季度分享的固定費用房地產策略的資本需求後，約為 7.25 億至 7.75 億美元。這一更高的水平反映了為選擇新店成長而轉向自行開發的舉措，這些新店的成長將透過出售現有商店來籌集資金。值得注意的是，出售我們自有商店的收益預計將抵消開發計劃下的增量資本支出。合併後的交易預計對我們的現金狀況相對中性。

Implied in our outlook is for fourth quarter comp store sales to be down low to mid-single digits. As Hal mentioned, we anticipate continued discerning consumer spending and unfavorable compares relating to weather as we experienced the ongoing El Nino pattern combined with the cycling of last year's monumental winter storm, which drove 200 basis points of favorable impact on comps. We anticipate continued strength in our core year-round categories, yet the softness in demand for seasonal and discretionary will continue to limit the top side on our performance.

我們的展望暗示第四季同店銷售額將降至低至中個位數。正如哈爾所提到的，我們預計消費者支出將持續敏銳，並且與天氣相關的不利比較將持續存在，因為我們經歷了持續的厄爾尼諾現象，加上去年巨大的冬季風暴的循環，對公司業績產生了200 個基點的有利影響。我們預計全年核心類別將繼續保持強勢，但季節性和非必需品需求疲軟將繼續限制我們業績的上限。

As a reminder, we are also lapping the 53rd week, which included an extra week of sales in the prior year, contributing approximately $225 million to top line sales and $0.16 of diluted earnings per share. As for retail price increases, our plans reflect a continued moderation of inflation. While still positive, we believe it will be modest.

提醒一下，我們還迎來了第 53 週，其中包括上一年額外一周的銷售額，為營收貢獻了約 2.25 億美元，稀釋每股收益為 0.16 美元。至於零售價格上漲，我們的計畫反映了通膨的持續放緩。雖然仍然積極，但我們相信它會是溫和的。

Our guidance reflects ongoing gross margin expansion year-over-year. We anticipate continued benefit from transportation and our new distribution center along with some pressure from an unfavorable product mix. In the fourth quarter, we expect continued SG&A deleverage given our investments and the expected comparable store sales declines.

我們的指導反映了毛利率持續逐年成長。我們預期運輸和新的配送中心將繼續受益，同時不利的產品組合也會帶來一些壓力。鑑於我們的投資和預期的可比商店銷售額下降，我們預計第四季度的銷售、管理和行政費用將繼續去槓桿化。

As we shared last quarter, for modeling purposes, the Orscheln stores will go into our comp calculation in 2024 based on when the store is converted to our point-of-sale system. Most stores converted to our point of sale during Q2 and Q3 of this year. As is customary, we will provide our guidance for 2024 at our fourth quarter earnings call. We're still finalizing our outlook for sales as there are a number of puts and takes to be considered.

正如我們在上個季度分享的那樣，出於建模目的，Orscheln 商店將根據商店轉換為我們的銷售點系統的時間在 2024 年進入我們的補償計算。今年第二季和第三季度，大多數商店都轉換為我們的銷售點。按照慣例，我們將在第四季財報電話會議上提供 2024 年的指導。我們仍在最終確定銷售前景，因為有許多看跌期權需要考慮。

Let's start with the fact that we're a needs-based, demand-driven business with a long history of positive comps. Additionally, as we see 2024 today, we expect we'll have less benefit from inflation, but we're 18 months into cycling big ticket softness. And the weather hopefully cannot be worse than it was this year, but we do anticipate that the operating environment will continue to be challenging with a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty and ongoing pressure on consumer confidence and household budgets.

首先，我們是一家以需求為基礎、需求驅動的企業，擁有悠久的積極競爭歷史。此外，正如我們今天所看到的，我們預計 2024 年從通膨中獲得的好處將會減少，但我們已經進入大票疲軟的 18 個月了。希望天氣不會比今年更糟糕，但我們確實預計，營運環境將繼續面臨挑戰，不確定性程度高於正常水平，消費者信心和家庭預算將面臨持續壓力。

As we've shared over the last couple of years, we've always planned that 2023 would be our peak capital investment level. With that as a backdrop, we plan to prudently invest in our strategic priorities in 2024 with next year's net capital spending in the 600s, which will relieve some depreciation expense.

正如我們在過去幾年中所分享的那樣，我們一直在計劃 2023 年將是我們的資本投資高峰水準。在此背景下，我們計劃謹慎投資2024年的策略重點，明年的淨資本支出在600左右，這將減輕一些折舊費用。

We remain excited about the progress on our Life Out Here strategy and are very pleased with our initiatives. Our tenth distribution center will open during the second quarter of 2024. Much like our distribution center opening this year, this new DC benefits gross margin, but will pressure our SG&A as the facility ramps up. The gross margin benefits typically lack the opening by about 1 quarter. Similar to 2023, we anticipate executing approximately 15 existing store sale-leaseback transaction in 2024 to fund the own development new store program. And we anticipate the opening of 80 new Tractor Supply stores and 10 to 15 Petsense locations.

我們對 Life Out Here 策略的進展感到興奮，並對我們的舉措感到非常滿意。我們的第十個配送中心將於2024 年第二季開幕。與我們今年開幕的配送中心非常相似，這個新的配送中心有利於毛利率，但隨著設施的擴建，會給我們的銷售、管理和管理費用帶來壓力。毛利率效益通常比期初滯後約 1 個季度。與 2023 年類似，我們預計在 2024 年執行約 15 筆現有商店售後回租交易，為自己開發新店計畫提供資金。我們預計將開設 80 家新的 Tractor Supply 商店和 10 至 15 家 Petsense 門市。

Over our history, we have continually adapted to the operating environment around us. The needs-based, demand-driven characteristics of our product offerings support our ability to continue to be a winner in retail. We will remain agile and play offense. We will leverage our core competencies that have served us well, all while strengthening our capabilities and investing in our Life Out Here growth strategy.

在我們的歷史中，我們不斷適應周遭的營運環境。我們的產品以需求為基礎、需求驅動的特質來支持我們繼續成為零售業的贏家。我們將保持敏捷並進攻。我們將利用為我們提供良好服務的核心競爭力，同時加強我們的能力並投資於我們的 Life Out Here 成長策略。

Now I will turn the call over to Hal to wrap this up.

現在我將把電話轉給哈爾來結束這件事。

Thanks, Kurt. As the calendar shift to the fall and winter season, our stores and online are ready for the change of typical Tractor Supply fashion. Our merchandising team has been working closely with our vendors on plans for the holiday season with an emphasis on new products and innovation and, very notably, with a focus on value.

謝謝，庫爾特。隨著日曆進入秋冬季節，我們的商店和線上商店已準備好迎接典型拖拉機供應時尚的變化。我們的銷售團隊一直與供應商密切合作制定假日季計劃，並專注於新產品和創新，尤其是價值。

As the largest player in our sector, it is our obligation to be the advocate for value for our customers, and we are working hard to roll back the cost absorbed over the past 2 years. We will continue to be the destination for value and quality across our merchandising lineup.

作為我們行業中最大的參與者，我們有義務成為客戶價值的倡導者，我們正在努力減少過去兩年所吸收的成本。我們將繼續成為我們的商品系列中價值和品質的目的地。

In key categories like heating and insulated apparel, our merchants have brought newness with compelling value, including exciting programs such as Columbia Performance honey gear and our line of Grand Teton Pellet Stove. In our CUE categories, we have the right selection at the right price with a focus on value and are committed to being in stock as we continue to support our customers' lifestyles. For example, you will see wood pallet stackouts in the majority of our stores in preparation for the winter season.

在暖氣和隔熱服裝等關鍵類別中，我們的商家帶來了具有引人注目的價值的新穎產品，包括令人興奮的項目，例如 Columbia Performance 蜂蜜裝備和我們的 Grand Teton 顆粒爐系列。在我們的 CUE 類別中，我們以合適的價格提供合適的選擇，注重價值，並致力於在繼續支持客戶生活方式的同時保持庫存。例如，您會在我們的大多數商店中看到木托盤堆放，為冬季做​​好準備。

And right now, our 400-plus Garden Centers are showcasing pumpkins, mums and fall harvest decor. And this year, we expanded our Halloween and Harvest decor program with a great lineup to capitalize on our customers' love for decorating their homes with on-trend seasonal indoor and outdoor decor, including a skeleton cow that was a TikTok viral sensation.

現在，我們的 400 多個花園中心正在展示南瓜、菊花和秋收裝飾。今年，我們擴大了萬聖節和豐收裝飾計劃，推出了豐富的產品陣容，以充分利用客戶對用流行的季節性室內和室外裝飾來裝飾房屋的熱愛，其中包括在 TikTok 上引起轟動的骷髏牛。

Additionally, and particularly in light of the continued warmer weather, we continue to be the destination for our customers' sporting goods, outdoor recreation and outdoor wildlife interest with products like our exclusive Royal Wing Bird Sea, Cannon Gun safe, exclusive countyline log splitters and the Blackstone griddle. Earlier this week, we announced the addition of YETI products to our lineup in our Fusion stores. We're especially excited to collaborate with a well-regarded brand like YETI that brings a long-standing reputation for quality and durability and aligns with our customers' interest in camping, fishing, hunting and all outdoor activities.

此外，特別是考慮到天氣持續變暖，我們繼續成為客戶購買體育用品、戶外休閒和戶外野生動物興趣的目的地，我們的產品包括我們獨家的Royal Wing Bird Sea、Cannon Gun 保險箱、獨家縣線劈木機和黑石煎鍋。本週早些時候，我們宣布將 YETI 產品添加到 Fusion 商店的產品陣容中。我們特別高興能與像 YETI 這樣的知名品牌合作，該品牌在品質和耐用性方面享有長期聲譽，並且符合我們客戶對露營、釣魚、狩獵和所有戶外活動的興趣。

Our stores and Garden Centers will soon be filled with Christmas trees, reeds and poinsettias. In addition to Live Goods, our customers can look forward to unique and different decor items, including our popular 6-foot chicken lawn decorations and farm-themed Holiday Gingerbread kit. When it comes to gifts, we have compelling values and buys in every selection of our store from tools and grills to even find rural unique items like a 12-volt zero-turn ride-on toy lawnmower.

我們的商店和花園中心很快就會種滿聖誕樹、蘆葦和一品紅。除了現場商品之外，我們的客戶還可以期待獨特和不同的裝飾物品，包括我們流行的 6 英尺雞草坪裝飾品和農場主題的假日薑餅套件。在禮品方面，我們具有令人信服的價值，從工具和烤架到我們商店的每一種選擇，甚至找到鄉村獨特的物品，例如 12 伏特零轉騎乘式玩具割草機。

From a calendar perspective, it's a good setup this year with 31 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. And Christmas falls on a Monday, so we anticipate a strong full weekend of sales prior to Christmas. We have a strong holiday season playbook with an exciting day after Thanksgiving Day plan as well with compelling offers programmed throughout the season. As we plan for the season, though, we acknowledge there is a broader range of estimates for holiday consumer spending than we've seen over the last couple of years.

從日曆的角度來看，今年感恩節和聖誕節之間只有 31 天，這是一個很好的安排。聖誕節恰逢星期一，因此我們預計聖誕節前整個週末的銷售都會強勁。我們有一個強大的假期季節劇本，包括感恩節後令人興奮的一天計劃，以及整個季節計劃的引人注目的優惠。不過，在我們為這個季節做計劃時，我們承認對假日消費者支出的估計範圍比過去幾年更廣泛。

As we enter the fourth quarter, we're on track to achieve several milestones in our Life Out Here strategy. Notably, we anticipate ending the year with 40% of our store base in the Project Fusion format and nearly 500 Garden Centers, both significant milestones to initiatives than we began less than 3 years ago. Our real estate pipeline is robust with plans for 80 new Tractor Supply stores also in 2024.

隨著進入第四季度，我們有望實現「這裡的生活」策略的幾個里程碑。值得注意的是，我們預計到今年年底，我們將有 40% 的商店採用 Project Fusion 格式，並擁有近 500 個花園中心，這對於我們不到 3 年前開始的舉措來說都是重要的里程碑。我們的房地產通路十分強勁，計劃在 2024 年開設 80 家新的 Tractor Supply 商店。

We're piloting artificial intelligence in many functions in the business, including marketing, supply chain and technology development. And one particular application that I'm very excited about is our generative AI knowledge tool that we call [Hay Viewer]. Using a proprietary AI engine that we built, we're able to deliver knowledge directly to our team members through the headsets that each wear to augment their individual experience.

我們正在業務的許多職能領域中試點人工智慧，包括行銷、供應鏈和技術開發。我非常興奮的一個特殊應用程式是我們的生成式人工智慧知識工具，我們稱之為 [Hay Viewer]。使用我們建立的專有人工智慧引擎，我們能夠透過每個人佩戴的耳機直接向我們的團隊成員提供知識，以增強他們的個人體驗。

And let me give you an example of this. One of the questions recently asked by a team member is, when do you switch from crumble feed to pellet for baby chicks? When asked the, Hay Viewer app responded, "Typically, chicken switch from crumble to pellet feed when they reach about 15 to 18 weeks of age depending on breed and development." To date, the results have been excellent. Our team members are really embracing and excited about the technology, and it's been a great value-add feature for our leading customer service.

讓我舉一個例子。一位團隊成員最近提出的問題之一是，您什麼時候將雛雞從碎飼料改為顆粒飼料？當被問到時，Hay Viewer 應用程式回答說：“通常，雞在達到 15 至 18 週齡時會從碎飼料轉向顆粒飼料，具體取決於品種和發育情況。”迄今為止，結果非常出色。我們的團隊成員非常喜歡這項技術並對此感到興奮，這對於我們領先的客戶服務來說是一個巨大的增值功能。

We have a long track record of growth and high expectations or performance. We view our current trends to these expectations as transitory and specific to the economic environment. This team has dialed in and understands the challenges. As we're entering one of the busiest periods in retail, my thanks and sincere appreciation goes out to my fellow 50,000 Tractor Supply team members for their dedication to our mission and value.

我們擁有長期的成長記錄和很高的期望或業績。我們認為這些預期的當前趨勢是暫時的並且特定於經濟環境。團隊已投入並了解挑戰。當我們進入零售業最繁忙的時期之一時，我向 50,000 名拖拉機供應團隊成員表示感謝和真誠的讚賞，感謝他們對我們使命和價值的奉獻。

And with that, operator, we would now like to open the lines for questions.

接線員，我們現在要開放提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Scott Ciccarelli with Truist.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Scott Ciccarelli 與 Truist 的對話。

Given the decline in same SKU inflation and growing concerns you may see a deflationary environment in pet food and feed, can you help us understand at least generally how you're thinking about the impact of inflation or deflation for '24, especially in your CUE categories?

鑑於相同SKU 通貨膨脹的下降以及日益增長的擔憂，您可能會看到寵物食品和飼料的通貨緊縮環境，您能否幫助我們至少大致了解您如何看待24 年通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮的影響，特別是在您的CUE 中類別？

Scott, this is Kurt. First, let me just start by saying we still see an environment where there's some net inflation year-over-year, while modest. Inflation is clearly slowing, but not turning to deflation at this point. And specific to some of the categories, we are seeing there's areas this year, where there's year-over-year deflation, particularly like areas like birdfeed, livestock feed, corn based, yes, there's some level of deflation. But there's areas like you mentioned, where we're still seeing some level of inflation still in the system, such as pet food.

史考特，這是庫爾特。首先，我首先要說的是，我們仍然看到這樣的環境：同比出現一些淨通膨，但幅度不大。通膨明顯放緩，但目前尚未轉向通貨緊縮。具體到某些類別，我們看到今年有些領域出現了同比通貨緊縮，特別是像鳥飼料、牲畜飼料、玉米等領域，是的，存在一定程度的通貨緊縮。但在像您提到的領域，我們仍然看到系統中仍然存在一定程度的通貨膨脹，例如寵物食品。

And then there's most of our areas in our product categories, what I'd describe as they've hit a plateau. It's stable and we're running pretty consistent. And as you -- as that moves to the pipeline, very much consistent with our outlook for this year and beyond, was that we start to moderate down to a low single-digit level of inflation in 2023. Too early to really say for 2024. But the general call would be that things begin to stabilize, inflation, deflation is not as much of a factor in the average ticket that it's been over the past few years. And it's more stabilized and neutral-ish. And we're certainly focused on it.

然後是我們產品類別中的大部分領域，我將其描述為已經達到了平穩期。它很穩定，我們的運作非常一致。正如您所說，隨著這項計劃的進展，我們將在2023 年開始將通貨膨脹率降至個位數的低水平，這與我們對今年及以後的前景非常一致。現在說2024 年還為時過早但普遍的看法是，情況開始穩定，通貨膨脹、通貨緊縮不再像過去幾年那樣成為影響平均票價的重要因素。而且它更加穩定和中性。我們當然關注它。

This team has worked consistently in environments of change in inflation, deflation, have a history performing very well. Know that we're monitoring it. I'll be able to share more information on that in the fourth quarter call, when we give our outlook for 2024.

團隊在通貨膨脹、通貨緊縮的變化環境中始終如一地工作，有著非常出色的歷史表現。知道我們正在監視它。當我們給出 2024 年的展望時，我將能夠在第四季度的電話會議上分享更多相關資訊。

That's really helpful. And then just for clarification. If we were to get same SKU deflation, should we expect it to result in gross margin expansion? I think that used to be a general role of sum for you guys as we go back to pre-pandemic days.

這真的很有幫助。然後只是為了澄清。如果我們出現相同的 SKU 通貨緊縮，我們是否應該期望它會導致毛利率擴張？我認為，當我們回到大流行前的日子時，這曾經是你們的普遍角色。

Yes. In general, our history has been that in a deflationary environment, we're able to leverage our scale, manage our retail pricing, generally produces a benefit on the rate, just like inflation did over the last few years, put a bit of pressure on that rate. And we manage both environments very well. And historically, it's been as you described it.

是的。總的來說，我們的歷史是，在通貨緊縮的環境中，我們能夠利用我們的規模，管理我們的零售定價，通常會對利率產生好處，就像過去幾年的通貨膨脹一樣，施加一些壓力按這個速度。我們對這兩種環境都管理得很好。從歷史上看，情況正如您所描述的那樣。

The next question comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim Partners.

下一個問題來自史蒂文·福布斯和古根漢合夥人的線路。

Maybe just to focus on capital spending plans for next year. I think you guys mentioned sort of in the $600 million range. I was curious, Kurt, if you can maybe help us explain the year-over-year change and if there's any part of the strategic investment plan that you're pulling back on for any particular reason?

也許只是為了關註明年的資本支出計畫。我想你們提到的大概是 6 億美元的範圍。我很好奇，庫爾特，您是否可以幫助我們解釋一下同比變化，以及您是否因任何特定原因而取消了戰略投資計劃的任何部分？

Yes, Steven. The biggest change, very much consistent with what we expect when we said peak years of 2022 and 2023 are those big investments in the distribution centers. We will open that second new distribution center next year in 2024, but a majority of that capital is in 2023. So the -- on a net capital spend that we're forecasting in the $725 million to $775 million, if you back off of that into the 600s, the biggest majority of that is supply chain.

是的，史蒂文。最大的變化與我們所說的 2022 年和 2023 年高峰年的預期非常一致，那就是對配送中心的巨額投資。我們將於明年 2024 年開設第二個新的配送中心，但大部分資本都在 2023 年。因此，如果您放棄的話，我們預測淨資本支出將在 7.25 億至 7.75 億美元之間進入600 年代，其中最大的一部分是供應鏈。

There's other efficiencies in there, such as we continue on our investments in the stores such as Fusion and Garden Centers to reengineer and find efficiencies in our investments. I'm really excited about the 2 newest formats that we are rolling out in the stores that we've been able to reengineer and drive cost out of a Garden Center. And that's giving us even lower cost debt. And then maybe the third thing would be the investments we made in 2023 on integration and remodeling the Orscheln stores, we'll be rolling off of that. I think those 3 things are the biggest difference, but no shift in our strategic investments.

還有其他效率，例如我們繼續對 Fusion 和 Garden Centers 等商店進行投資，以重新設計並提高投資效率。我對我們在商店中推出的兩種最新格式感到非常興奮，我們已經能夠重新設計並降低花園中心的成本。這使我們的債務成本更低。第三件事可能是我們在 2023 年對 Orscheln 商店進行整合和改造的投資，我們將逐步進行。我認為這三件事是最大的區別，但我們的策略投資沒有改變。

The next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.

下一個問題來自彼得·本尼迪克特和​​貝爾德的對話。

Kurt, just leveraging off Steve's question there, the prudent investment approach on the CapEx side. Can you walk that over to the SG&A side of the P&L and talk about what it kind of means? You've spoken to 85% of the growth in SG&A coming from some of these investments. How does that kind of maybe that growth cadence inflect next year?

庫爾特，只是利用了史蒂夫的問題，即資本支出的審慎投資方法。您能否將其轉到損益表的 SG&A 部分並談談它的含義？您談到 SG&A 成長的 85% 來自其中一些投資。明年這種成長節奏會如何改變？

And then secondly, your ability to kind of manage the core bucket, I guess the non-investment-related bucket, in the event that your comps remain challenged, let's say, through '24, let's just call it flat for argument's sake.

其次，你管理核心業務的能力，我猜是非投資相關的業務，如果你的公司仍然面臨挑戰，比如說，到24年，為了爭論起見，我們就將其稱為持平。

Yes, Peter. On SG&A, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I felt one of the highlights was how the team managed pivoting off of a number of years and quarters with strong top line sales to scale to the appropriate level of volume for Q3. And it just shows our ability to be agile in that case. To your point on the 85% was growth, some of the things that really played out to help drive the core SG&A to a really low growth level, first area is supply chain.

是的，彼得。關於SG&A，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我認為其中的亮點之一是團隊如何在營收強勁的多年和季度中實現轉型，以擴大到第三季度適當的銷量水平。它只是顯示了我們在這種情況下保持敏捷的能力。就您而言，85% 是成長，一些真正發揮作用的因素有助於推動核心 SG&A 達到非常低的成長水平，第一個領域是供應鏈。

And I mentioned this in the previous last couple of quarters. We had built the supply chain almost through muscle, 3PLs, other areas that distribution centers were running at max capacity or above that level of -- and that's inefficient. We've been able to shed off some of the 3PL higher costs. The team is running at the -- some of the highest level of productivity. So our -- one of our biggest areas of leverage in a flat to slight negative comp sales environment was our distribution supply chain as they actually leverage as a percent of sales because of productivity. John and team focusing on scaling down task or noncustomer service work to modestly drive hours down, that also reflects some of the SG&A benefits.

我在前幾個季度提到過這一點。我們幾乎透過人力、3PL 以及配送中心以最大容量或高於該水準運作的其他領域建立了供應鏈，但效率很低。我們已經能夠擺脫一些 3PL 較高的成本。該團隊正在以最高的生產力水準運作。因此，在持平或略有負值的銷售環境中，我們最大的槓桿領域之一是我們的分銷供應鏈，因為由於生產力的原因，他們實際上佔銷售額的百分比。 John 和團隊專注於縮減任務或非客戶服務工作，以適度縮短工作時間，這也反映了 SG&A 的一些好處。

In general, in an environment that there is softer demand at Tractor Supply, as we look ahead to even future quarters and next year, we'll make -- we'll plan and scale our core levels of investments and our operating expenses in line with our sales growth. And then from there, this team will continue to claw back inflationary pressures, even in operating expenses that have embedded over the last few years. And this is a team that's been built with lean management, continuous improvement in our DNA, and we have profit improvement goals. And those are all things as we plan ahead to that gives us confidence in our ability to manage and still hold to our long-term algorithm and targets on operating margin.

總的來說，在拖拉機供應需求疲軟的環境下，當我們展望未來幾個季度和明年時，我們將計劃和擴大我們的核心投資水平和我們的營運支出隨著我們的銷售增長。然後，該團隊將繼續消除通膨壓力，即使是過去幾年增加的營運費用。這是一支精益管理、持續改善的團隊，我們有利潤提高的目標。這些都是我們事先規劃的事情，這讓我們對自己的管理能力充滿信心，並且仍然堅持我們的長期演算法和營業利潤率目標。

The next question comes from the line of Michael Baker with D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 Michael Baker 和 D.A.戴維森。

Two-part question, I guess. I wanted to ask about your discretionary and seasonal business. You talked about your discretionary business being 15% of sales. But why wouldn't you consider the seasonal business to be discretionary as well as that seems to be able to ebb and flow based on the seasons?

我想，分為兩部分的問題。我想問一下你們的全權委託和季節性業務。您談到您的全權委託業務佔銷售額的 15%。但是，為什麼不認為季節性業務是可自由支配的，並且似乎能夠根據季節變化？

And I guess the second part of that is you said the fall/early winter businesses started off slow. Are those lost sales or just delayed? Like if it does eventually get cold, which presumably it will, how do you think those sales pick back up?

我想第二部分是你說的秋季/初冬的業務開始緩慢。這些是銷售損失還是只是延遲？就像如果天氣最終變冷（大概會變冷），你認為這些銷售會如何回升？

Michael, thanks for the question. I appreciate your participation in the call. As it relates to discretionary, just one would acknowledge 15-ish percent of our business kind of big ticket discretionary, mid-single-digit negative comps, a slight improvement from -- sequentially from what we saw in the first half of the year, kind of in line with what we expected. The miss throughout the entirety of this year for us has been our seasonal businesses. Our CUE continues to perform very strong with comps well above our reported total company comp performance with significant share gains happening in our CUE business.

邁克爾，謝謝你的提問。感謝您參與此通話。就全權委託而言，只有一個人會承認我們的業務中有 15% 左右是大額全權委託，中等個位數的負補償，比我們今年上半年看到的情況略有改善，有點符合我們的預期。今年全年我們錯過的是我們的季節性業務。我們的 CUE 繼續表現非常強勁，其業績遠高於我們報告的公司整體業績，我們的 CUE 業務的份額大幅增長。

On our Q2 call -- or Q1 and Q2 calls, when we talked about seasonal, we acknowledge that there could be an element of the consumer spending discretionary piece to kind of steeps into that seasonal business. I would characterize the fall and winter business though, more demand-driven, needs-based than even spring. Because in the winter, the businesses that are really strong for us and large and robust are things like wood pellets and propane. In fact, 3 of our top 10 SKUs during the winter season are those -- our 2 wood pellet SKUs in the propane SKU.

在我們第二季的電話會議上，或第一季和第二季的電話會議上，當我們談論季節性時，我們承認消費者支出的可自由支配部分可能會進入季節性業務。不過，我認為秋季和冬季的業務比春季更受需求驅動、以需求為基礎。因為在冬天，對我們來說真正強大、規模大、穩健的業務是木屑顆粒和丙烷等業務。事實上，我們冬季排名前 10 的 SKU 中有 3 個是丙烷 SKU 中的 2 個木顆粒 SKU。

Those are demand-driven need-based. When it's cold, people are burning the pellets in their wood stoves or they're using propane for heating of their homes or supplemental heating. And when it's not cold, they're not. And this time last year, actually as we entered Q3, the last week of Q2 and as we entered Q3, it was -- we had cooler weather and then that continued throughout the balance of Q3. We didn't have that at all this year. And then even as we're heading into Q4 here, it's going to be 80 degrees this weekend in Boston. You just don't need wood pellets and you don't need propane during that time. And so you can see it very clearly in our business.

這些都是需求驅動的、基於需求的。當天氣寒冷時，人們會在木火爐中燃燒顆粒，或使用丙烷為房屋供暖或補充供暖。當天氣不冷時，它們就不冷。去年的這個時候，實際上，當我們進入第三季度時，第二季度的最後一周，當我們進入第三季度時，天氣涼爽，然後這種情況持續到第三季度的剩餘時間。我們今年根本沒有這個。即使我們即將進入第四季度，波士頓本週末的氣溫也將達到 80 度。在此期間您不需要木顆粒，也不需要丙烷。所以你可以在我們的業務中清楚地看到這一點。

On the flip side, we are seeing strength in outdoor projects, outdoor wildlife, those sorts of categories, whether it's grilling, whether it's dear corn and the deer hunting season. You can certainly see it in the lawn and garden categories, even in riding lawn mowers. Those businesses this time of the year, though, are just not large enough to offset -- even with nice growth in those categories, they're just not large enough to offset those sorts of pieces that are demand-driven. We also do sell a lot of insulated outerwear type categories, whether it's coats and fleece-lined pants and those sorts of things, gloves, boots I think if it gets cold, I would expect those to not be lost sales, but there is an element of like wood pellet propane, that once you don't have that cold weather, you do lose it.

另一方面，我們看到了戶外項目、戶外野生動物等類別的優勢，無論是燒烤、玉米還是獵鹿季節。您當然可以在草坪和花園類別中看到它，甚至在騎乘式割草機中也是如此。然而，每年這個時候，這些企業的規模還不足以抵銷──即使這些類別的成長不錯，它們也不足以抵銷那些由需求驅動的業務。我們也銷售很多保暖外套類型的產品，無論是外套和羊毛襯裡的褲子還是諸如此類的東西，手套，靴子我想如果天氣變冷，我希望這些不會失去銷售，但有一個像木顆粒丙烷這樣的元素，一旦你沒有那麼冷的天氣，你就會失去它。

I think we are being prudent in our implied guidance for the fourth quarter. Last year, we didn't have was not -- it was a warm-ish November. So there -- but we know there's an El Nino that's in forecast right now. And so we just thought it'd be prudent to not assume that we'd have any upside as we lap that in November, as we talked about in our prepared remarks. And then, of course, we're hurdling or comping on top of a robust storm from last year that, as we noted in our Q4 earnings call, last year contributed 2 points to the comps for the quarter.

我認為我們對第四季的隱含指引持謹慎態度。去年，我們沒有──那是一個溫暖的十一月。就這樣——但我們知道現在正在預測厄爾尼諾現象。因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中談到的那樣，我們只是認為，謹慎的做法是，不要假設我們在 11 月完成這項任務時會有任何上行空間。當然，我們正在克服去年的強勁風暴，正如我們在第四季度財報電話會議中指出的那樣，去年為本季的綜合業績貢獻了 2 個百分點。

That's helpful. So it sounds like those seasonal categories are nondiscretionary, but only if the weather cooperates. Is that a fair way to put it?

這很有幫助。因此，聽起來這些季節性類別並不是隨意決定的，但前提是天氣配合。這樣說公平嗎？

Yes, I think that's a fair way to -- that's absolutely a fair way to say it.

是的，我認為這是一種公平的方式——這絕對是一種公平的說法。

The next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。

One of the debates on the Tractor Supply story over the long term is the company has a gross margin right now that's 150 basis points that's higher than it was prior to the pandemic. So what gives you confidence on the long-term outlook, especially as this has become a more profitable business, what's a realistic expectation that you can hold on to this increased profitability? And then I have one quick follow-up.

從長遠來看，關於拖拉機供應故事的爭論之一是，該公司目前的毛利率為 150 個基點，比疫情大流行之前更高。那麼，是什麼讓您對長期前景充滿信心，特別是當這已成為一項利潤更高的業務時，您可以保持這種增加的盈利能力的現實期望是什麼？然後我會進行快速跟進。

Yes. Michael, this is Kurt. Gross margin has certainly been not only a high point for this quarter, this year. But to your point, what we've been able to accomplish leveraging our scale and size in the last years has been a real testament to the team I'll give you a few examples of why we believe this is a sustainable gross margin, and most of it is around the structural nature of it.

是的。邁克爾，這是庫爾特。毛利率當然不僅是本季的高點，也是今年的高點。但就您而言，我們在過去幾年中利用我們的規模和規模所取得的成就是對團隊的真正證明，我將給您舉幾個例子，說明為什麼我們相信這是一個可持續的毛利率，並且其中大部分是圍繞它的結構性質。

As you think ahead, I'll first acknowledge, as we continue to grow in CUE and take market share, it puts a little bit of pressure from product mix. And we've been cycling and absorbing those gross margin expansions with higher pressure from CUE mix in the past two years more than we would see going forward. Supply chain benefits have really been 1 of the top 2 areas of gross margin expansion. And we've seen and come off some of the highest supply chain costs. We've absorbed some of the inefficiencies in the robust fast growth period.

當你展望未來時，我首先承認，隨著我們在 CUE 方面的不斷增長並佔據市場份額，它會給產品組合帶來一些壓力。過去兩年，我們一直在循環利用 CUE 組合的更高壓力來吸收這些毛利率擴張，其壓力超出了我們未來的預期。供應鏈效益確實是毛利率成長的兩大領域之一。我們已經看到並擺脫了一些最高的供應鏈成本。我們已經吸收了強勁快速成長時期的一些低效率問題。

So the supply chain cost is -- declining transportation costs, improvement in the reduced miles from new distribution centers, are all structural. And as you think about transportation costs, you think about it as in this particular time, we are still in an environment, where transportation cost, both domestic and import are higher than the prepandemic levels. I'm not saying that we expect to revert back to pre-pandemic norms. But I think the important thing is, is that we're not coming off of a new extreme low, but yet coming off of some of the highs.

因此，供應鏈成本－運輸成本的下降、新配送中心哩程的減少，都是結構性的。當你考慮運輸成本時，你會想到，在這個特定的時期，我們仍然處於這樣一個環境，​​國內和進口的運輸成本都高於疫情前的水平。我並不是說我們希望恢復到大流行前的正常水平。但我認為重要的是，我們並沒有擺脫新的極端低點，而是擺脫了一些高點。

And then the second most impactful piece of gross margin is the structural sustained difference of coming off promotionals that were embedded into our normal programs and really leveraging EDLP and Neighbor's Club. So the biggest drivers are structural. We expect to be able to change those. And the benefits that our fast team has driven in our production, not only in sales but the funding from our vendors, is structurally in there as well. So we anticipate to be able to have continued gross margin expansion, and even next year, as you think about seasonal may be able to bounce back and that have higher margins. So we have a lot of expectations on our ability to sustain and even expand gross margin for those reasons.

第二個最有影響力的毛利率是我們正常計劃中嵌入的促銷活動以及真正利用 EDLP 和鄰裡俱樂部的結構性持續差異。因此，最大的驅動因素是結構性的。我們希望能夠改變這些。我們的快速團隊在生產中帶來的好處，不僅在銷售方面，而且還從我們的供應商那裡獲得了資金，這在結構上也是如此。因此，我們預計毛利率能夠持續擴張，甚至明年，因為你認為季節性可能會反彈並且利潤率更高。因此，基於這些原因，我們對維持甚至擴大毛利率的能力抱持著很大的期望。

Got you. My follow-up question is you provided some initial observations on next year. Macro is going to be tough. We'll see what happens with the weather, less inflation benefit. So in light of all those comments, how low can your comp be and you still maintain flat overall EPS next year versus this year?

明白你了。我的後續問題是您對明年提供了一些初步觀察。宏觀將會很艱難。我們將看看天氣會發生什麼，扣除通貨膨脹的好處。因此，考慮到所有這些評論，明年您的薪酬可以降到多低，而整體每股收益仍與今年持平？

Yes. I'll take that one. I mean, I'd have to just go to this is still very early in our planning cycle. This business has been resilient in regards to our ability to maintain our comp sales. It's so much of a needs-based core business in there that we are planning for some uncertainty. There are some headwinds on the consumer, but we got strong strategic initiatives. We're lapping some difficult challenges from the seasonal business.

是的。我會接受那個。我的意思是，我必須這樣做，這還處於我們計劃週期的早期階段。該業務在我們維持比較銷售的能力方面一直具有彈性。這是一個基於需求的核心業務，因此我們正在計劃應對一些不確定性。消費者面臨一些阻力，但我們採取了強而有力的策略措施。我們正在應對季節性業務帶來的一些困難挑戰。

And we can be nimble, but I'm just not going to try to predict or go down a path of like what level of comps or how low it could be because this business has a track record. In 30 years, we've had 1 year of negative comps and it was ever so slightly. And we're confident in our ability to produce strong sales performance.

我們可以很靈活，但我只是不會嘗試預測或走上一條道路，例如競爭水平如何或可能有多低，因為這項業務有良好的記錄。 30 年來，我們有過 1 年的負面業績，而且幅度非常小。我們對取得強勁銷售業績的能力充滿信心。

And then the only thing I would add -- Michael, the only thing I would add is in Kurt's prepared remarks, he talked about our commitment to our long-term operating margin guidance inclusive of next year. I'd also add, we see a lot of opportunities for continued operating expense control next year, namely, as Kurt mentioned, freight and a number of other levers.

然後我唯一要補充的是 - 邁克爾，我唯一要補充的是在庫爾特準備好的講話中，他談到了我們對包括明年在內的長期營業利潤率指導的承諾。我還想補充一點，我們看到明年有很多繼續控制營運費用的機會，即，正如庫爾特所提到的那樣，貨運和許多其他槓桿。

And I think we've demonstrated this year that we have a number of levers that we can pull to continue to support the underlying profitability of the business and also can control what we can control. And we certainly don't see an outlook next year as you implied as potential for negative decline in EPS. And if you look at the underlying strength of our business, whether it's in consumer or shopper -- number of shoppers in our stores, our customer satisfaction, our market share gains, all those sorts of things, we've never been more confident in the underlying foundation of our business.

我認為我們今年已經證明我們擁有許多可以利用的槓桿來繼續支持業務的基本盈利能力，並且還可以控制我們可以控制的內容。我們當然不會看到明年的前景，正如您所暗示的那樣，每股收益可能會出現負下降。如果你看看我們業務的潛在優勢，無論是消費者還是購物者——我們商店裡的購物者數量、我們的客戶滿意度、我們的市場份額增長，所有這些，我們從未如此有信心我們業務的根本基礎。

The next question comes from the line of Oliver Wintermantel with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Oliver Wintermantel 和 Evercore 的對話。

For your guidance for the fourth quarter comp, the low-single digits to mid-single digits decline, Kurt, how do you expect transactions versus ticket outperforming in that kind of environment in regards of last year's -- the winter storm? And is it mostly on transactions that is going to decline in the fourth quarter?

對於您對第四季度比較的指導，低個位數到中個位數的下降，庫爾特，在去年的冬季風暴的這種環境下，您預計交易與門票的表現如何？主要是第四季交易量將下降嗎？

Oliver, yes, I'd frame it up as it's going to be a mix of both of those. We had a slight average ticket decline in Q3. Some of those pressures on average ticket will -- we expect to persist into Q4. But transactions are what gets impacted and did get impacted by the monumental winter storm last year. With our expectations, as we mentioned, this is not framing up to be an ideal fourth quarter weather, that demand would play out in transactions. And in our in evaluation, it's going to be a mix of both transactions and ticket. And implied in our guidance would be a negative comp transaction for that reason.

奧利佛，是的，我會把它框起來，因為它將是這兩者的混合。第三季的平均門票略有下降。我們預計平均票價方面的一些壓力將持續到第四季。但交易受到了影響，而且去年確實受到了巨大的冬季風暴的影響。正如我們所提到的，根據我們的預期，這並不是理想的第四季天氣，需求將在交易中發揮作用。在我們的評估中，它將是交易和票據的結合。因此，我們的指導方針中暗示將進行負補償交易。

The next question comes from the line of Scott Mushkin with R5 Capital.

下一個問題來自 R5 Capital 的 Scott Mushkin。

This is [Ryan] on for Scott. Our research would suggest that there is an opportunity to have stores get deliveries from the distribution centers more frequently. Do you agree? And if so, what do you think the sales opportunity may be?

這是斯科特的[瑞安]。我們的研究表明，商店有機會更頻繁地從配送中心接收貨物。你同意？如果是這樣，您認為銷售機會可能是什麼？

Thank you for your question. First off, I'd say this is an area that we have been focused on for the last few years. We've gone from roughly 5 mixing centers to 15 mixing centers over the last 3 years. That has given us the ability to have more replenishment going into the stores of full pallet quantities of our big moving SKUs.

謝謝你的問題。首先，我想說這是我們過去幾年一直在關注的領域。在過去 3 年裡，我們的混合中心數量從大約 5 個增加到 15 個。這使我們能夠向商店中的大型移動 SKU 的全托盤數量進行更多補貨。

The second thing is the expansion of our DCs from 8 to 9, and then next year, 10, also gives us additional outbalanced capacity to be able to deliver more frequently to our stores. We now have over, I think it's 500 or 600 stores now that receive shipments twice a week from our distribution centers. The remaining stores all receive shipments once a week. So it's not that we have stores perceiving it less than that. But yes, we're constantly looking at ways we can drive in-stock.

第二件事是我們的配送中心從 8 個擴展到 9 個，然後明年增加到 10 個，這也為我們提供了額外的超平衡容量，以便能夠更頻繁地向我們的商店送貨。我們現在有超過 500 或 600 家商店每週從我們的配送中心接收兩次發貨。其餘商店每週都會收到一次出貨。所以這並不是說我們的商店對它的感知低於此。但是，是的，我們一直在尋找提高庫存的方法。

What I would leave you with is our in-stock rate right now is the best it's been, as Kurt said in his prepared remarks, really since the pandemic began. And we feel very good about our in-stock rates right now. And our team has done an excellent job in managing inventory. If you look at our inventory growth, it's in control. If you look at our in-stock rates, they're excellent. You look at our shrink numbers below last year, and that last year was below 2 years ago.

我想說的是，正如庫爾特在他準備好的演講中所說，我們現在的庫存率是自大流行開始以來最好的。我們現在對庫存率感覺非常好。我們的團隊在庫存管理方面做得非常出色。如果你看看我們的庫存成長，你會發現它處於控制之中。如果您查看我們的庫存價格，您會發現它們非常好。你來看看我們去年的收縮率，去年的收縮率也低於兩年前。

So I think on all sides of inventory, quality, quantity, in-stock rates, we feel very good, but continue to challenge yourself to increase frequency and get smarter and smarter in our tools like our new relax replenishment and allocation system to be able to keep improving our performance on inventory. But feel very good about it. As I said, our in-stock rates are the best they've been really since the pandemic.

因此，我認為在庫存、品質、數量、庫存率的各個方面，我們都感覺非常好，但繼續挑戰自己，增加頻率，並在我們的工具中變得越來越聰明，例如我們新的放鬆補貨和分配系統，以便能夠持續提高我們的庫存績效。但對此感覺非常好。正如我所說，我們的庫存率是自大流行以來最好的。

The next question comes from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Chris Horvers。

So comment -- following up on some of the prior questions. You are assuming comps are down roughly 4% in the fourth quarter. And you also said that your business has a long history of positive comp, sort of alluding that '24 would be positive. So I guess what's unique to the fourth quarter? I understand there's 2 points of whether lap year-over-year. Why wouldn't the business be positive in that quarter if weather is sort of the only variable that's been the unknown?

因此，請評論——跟進之前的一些問題。您假設第四季度的比較下降了大約 4%。您也表示，您的企業有著悠久的正面補償歷史，有點暗示「24」將會是正面的。那我猜第四季有什麼獨特之處呢？據我所知，是否比去年同期有2分。如果天氣是唯一未知的變量，為什麼該季度的業務不會出現積極的情況？

Chris, and thanks for your question and participation in the call. I would just reiterate what we said in our prepared remarks that we continue to see the consumer being discerning in their spend, particularly in discretionary. I mean, I think we've all seen the charts on PCE spend and the shift from goods to services. We've all been looked at how good spending is occurring and how that's shifting across the various retail sectors.

克里斯，感謝您的提問和參與電話會議。我只想重申我們在準備好的發言中所說的話，即我們仍然看到消費者在支出方面保持敏銳，尤其是在可自由支配的支出方面。我的意思是，我想我們都看過個人消費支出支出以及從商品到服務的轉變的圖表。我們都在關注支出的良好情況以及各個零售領域的變化。

The sector we play in is the most sticky, the least impacted by that. You go look at electronics and appliances, you look at furniture, you look at home improvement. You look at all the other categories, they're all performing well below kind of our normal -- our sector. But nonetheless, we are seeing some modest impact on the discerning spend.

我們所處的產業是黏性最大、受其影響最小的產業。你去看看電子產品和電器，你看看家具，你會看看家居裝修。你看看所有其他類別，它們的表現都遠低於我們的正常水平——我們的行業。但儘管如此，我們還是看到了對挑剔支出的一些適度影響。

We also said weather is not also a great start for us in Q4. There's a very strong El Nino pattern occurring. That typically is a warmer winter season. It's 80 degrees this weekend in Boston. And then as you said, we're lapping the strong storm from last year, which we recorded 2 points too. So we just think, you put all that together and it's prudent to be -- it's appropriate to be prudent in our outlook for the fourth quarter and in that kind of mid-single digit, low to mid-single-digit negative.

我們也表示，天氣對我們第四季來說並不是一個好的開始。正在發生非常強烈的厄爾尼諾現象。這通常是一個溫暖的冬季。本週末波士頓氣溫為 80 度。然後正如你所說，我們正在克服去年的強風暴，我們也記錄了 2 分。因此，我們認為，將所有這些放在一起，我們對第四季度的前景以及這種中個位數、低至中個位數的負值的前景持謹慎態度是適當的。

And I don't think it's indicative of anything structural in the business. We see it as very transitory to the current moment. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we had active customer growth in Q3, we had new customer growth in Q3, we had reactivated customer growth in Q3. Our customer satisfaction scores are at all-time highs. Our market share gains are very strong right now across the board. In pet this past quarter, our share gains were as strong as they've been since the pandemic.

我認為這並不能表明該業務存在任何結構性問題。我們認為它對於當下時刻來說非常短暫。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們在第三季有活躍的客戶成長，我們在第三季有新客戶成長，我們在第三季重新啟動了客戶成長。我們的客戶滿意度得分處於歷史最高水準。目前，我們的市場佔有率成長非常強勁。在上個季度的寵物領域，我們的份額漲幅與大流行以來一樣強勁。

And again, our underlying business is very strong. I'm confident that in the context of retail goods spending, even though the tide is shifting out for all that, we're going to be standing tall amongst that.

再說一遍，我們的基礎業務非常強勁。我相信，在零售商品支出的背景下，即使趨勢正在轉變，我們仍將屹立不搖。

Got it. And then my follow-up is just on the consumer broadly. It is a needs-based business. How is the consumer changing? Because I think if you look at across retail right now, you're not the only one, who is seeing weakness, and it seems like it has deteriorated a bit. So are some of the things that you're talking about in terms of units per transaction and the usage of credit, is your view that there has been some degree of deterioration in the consumer over the past 6 months or so?

知道了。然後我的後續行動只是針對廣大的消費者。這是一項基於需求的業務。消費者正在發生怎樣的變化？因為我認為，如果你看看現在的整個零售業，你並不是唯一一個看到疲軟的人，而且情況似乎已經惡化了一點。那麼，您所談論的每筆交易單位和信貸使用方面的一些事情，您是否認為在過去 6 個月左右的時間裡，消費者的情況出現了某種程度的惡化？

I'd start by saying what is our value proposition. And our value proposition is to be that dependable supplier for Life Out Here. And again, I'd reiterate, we're seeing the customers in our stores. They are shopping us and at record levels. That said, when they're shopping us, they are spending a little bit less items per basket, right, kind of to the tune of a low single-digit headwind, and they're pulling back a little bit on discretionary. Those are consistent themes that we've had really for the last few quarters.

我首先要說的是我們的價值主張是什麼。我們的價值主張是成為 Life Out Here 的可靠供應商。我再次重申，我們在商店裡看到了顧客。他們正在以創紀錄的水平購買我們。也就是說，當他們在我們這裡購物時，他們在每個籃子裡花的錢稍微少了一點，對吧，有點低個位數的逆風，而且他們在可自由支配的商品上也減少了一點。這些是我們過去幾季一直以來的一致主題。

We haven't really seen any acceleration in that. It's really been more of a consistent theme. But again, for us, the seasonal weather -- the seasonal businesses have been a huge departure from what our outlook and expectations have been all year long. But nonetheless, I think you're going to continue to see for the near term, consumers -- the consumer spend continuing to shift to services from goods, that is kind of rebalancing. And I think you're going to see discretionary retail businesses taking -- continuing to take the brunt of that as we turn the quarter this year into next year.

我們還沒有真正看到這方面有任何加速。這確實是一個更一致的主題。但對我們來說，季節性天氣——季節性業務與我們全年的前景和預期有很大的出入。但儘管如此，我認為短期內你將繼續看到消費者——消費者支出繼續從商品轉向服務，這是一種再平衡。我認為，當我們將今年的季度轉向明年時，您將看到可自由支配的零售企業繼續首當其衝。

As we hit the top of the hour -- look as we hit the top of the hour, I think this wraps up our call. So thank you for everyone for joining us, and I'm available for follow-up, and we look forward to speaking to you on our fourth quarter earnings call.

當我們到達一小時的頂部時 - 看看我們到達一小時的頂部，我認為我們的通話到此結束。感謝大家加入我們，我可以進行後續跟進，我們期待在第四季度財報電話會議上與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。