Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss second quarter 2023 results. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that [repercussion] of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.

早上好，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Tractor Supply Company 的電話會議，討論 2023 年第二季度業績。 （操作員指示）請注意，未經拖拉機供應公司書面授權，不得對本次通話進行全部或部分的[反響]。提醒一下，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mrs. Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Trucker Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人瑪麗·溫·皮爾金頓 (Mary Winn Pilkington) 女士，她是卡車司機供應公司 (Trucker Supply Company) 投資者和公共關係高級副總裁。瑪麗·溫，請繼續。

Thank you, Megan. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time to join us today. On the call, prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our CEO; Kurt Barton, our CFO; and John Ordus, EVP and Chief Stores Officer; Seth Estep, our EVP and Chief Merchandising Officer, will join us for the Q&A session. Please note that we have made a supplemental slide presentation available on our website to accompany today's earnings release.

謝謝你，梅根。大家，早安。感謝您今天抽出時間加入我們。我們的首席執行官哈爾·勞頓 (Hal Lawton) 在電話會議上發表了準備好的講話；庫爾特·巴頓 (Kurt Barton)，我們的首席財務官；約翰·奧杜斯 (John Ordus)，執行副總裁兼首席倉庫官；我們的執行副總裁兼首席營銷官 Seth Estep 將參加我們的問答環節。請注意，我們在網站上提供了補充幻燈片演示，以配合今天的收益發布。

Now let me reference the safe harbor presents under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control.

現在讓我參考 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中的安全港建議。本次電話會議可能包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，包括公司未來的運營和財務業績。在許多情況下，這些風險和不確定性超出了我們的控制範圍。

Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable and can give no assurance such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct and actual results may differ materially from expectations.

儘管該公司認為其前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，並且不能保證此類預期或其任何前瞻性陳述將被證明是正確的，但實際結果可能與預期存在重大差異。

Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

今天發布的新聞稿末尾以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中反映的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。

The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call.

本次電話會議中包含的信息僅截至討論日期準確。投資者不應假設該聲明將在以後繼續有效。 Tractor Supply 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的任何信息的義務。

Given the number of people who want to participate, we respectfully ask that you limit yourself to 1 question. If you have additional questions, please feel free to get back in the queue. I appreciate your cooperation on that. We will be available after the call for follow-up.

鑑於想要參與的人數眾多，我們懇請您將自己的問題限制在 1 個以內。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時回到隊列中。感謝您對此的合作。我們將在致電後進行跟進。

Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Hal.

現在我很高興將電話轉給哈爾。

Thank you, Mary Winn. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'd like to begin by thanking the 52,000 Tractor Supply members for their commitment to each other and our customers and for their dedication to serving Life Out Here. Team is executing at a high level and did a nice job nimbly adjusting in the second quarter.

謝謝你，瑪麗·溫。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。首先，我要感謝 52,000 名 Tractor Supply 成員對彼此和我們客戶的承諾，以及他們對服務 Life Out Here 的奉獻精神。球隊執行力很高，第二季度的調整做得很好。

We're operating in a tougher environment than we expected at the beginning of the quarter and certainly tougher than what we forecasted as we entered the year. Consumer spending continues to shift in favor of services. Shoppers that are tired of inflation are being judicious on their baskets. Consumers continue to pull back on discretionary purchases. And additionally, our business was further impacted by the abnormal seasonal trends, particularly in the month of June.

我們的運營環境比我們在本季度初的預期更加嚴峻，當然也比我們進入今年時的預期更加嚴峻。消費者支出繼續轉向服務業。厭倦了通貨膨脹的購物者正在明智地選擇他們的購物籃。消費者繼續減少可自由支配的購買。此外，我們的業務進一步受到異常季節性趨勢的影響，特別是在六月份。

Despite this environment, we still expect 2023 to be a pretty solid year. Our customer is healthy, and we're gaining share, outgrowing our market by 2x and we are significantly outpacing total U.S. retail sales growth. We anticipate that we will have positive sales comps and positive comp transactions for the year, albeit in the low single digits range. And importantly, net sales and earnings will grow strong mid-single digits on top of the 53rd week last year.

儘管面臨這樣的環境，我們仍然預計 2023 年將是相當穩健的一年。我們的客戶很健康，我們的份額正在增加，增長速度超過了市場的兩倍，而且我們的增長速度也大大超過了美國零售總額的增長速度。我們預計，今年我們將實現積極的銷售業績和積極的業績交易，儘管只是在較低的個位數範圍內。重要的是，淨銷售額和盈利將在去年第 53 週的基礎上實現強勁的中個位數增長。

We have a long track record of growth and high expectations of performance. We view our underperformance to these expectations as specific to the current environment. The team has dialed in and understands the challenges.

我們擁有長期的增長記錄和對業績的高期望。我們認為，在當前環境下，我們對這些預期的表現不佳。該團隊已經投入並理解了挑戰。

For the remainder of the call today, I'll speak to a few highlights of the second quarter and then share an update on our Life Out Here strategy. John Ordus will then provide greater insights on our real estate strategy and our plans to accelerate our store growth. And then Kurt will follow John and share further details on the second quarter and our full year outlook.

在今天電話會議的剩餘部分中，我將談論第二季度的一些亮點，然後分享我們的“生活在這裡”戰略的最新情況。然後，約翰·奧杜斯 (John Ordus) 將對我們的房地產戰略和加速商店增長的計劃提供更深入的見解。然後庫爾特將跟隨約翰分享有關第二季度和我們全年展望的更多細節。

So let's dig in. All right. Turning to the second quarter. We grew net sales by 7.2% with comparable store sales up 2.5% and diluted EPS $3.83, an increase of nearly 9%. Our comparable store sales growth was driven by transaction growth of 1.8% and ticket growth of 0.6%. We expected and were pleased to see comp transactions turn back positive and this trend has continued into Q3.

那麼讓我們深入探討吧。好吧。轉向第二季度。我們的淨銷售額增長了 7.2%，可比商店銷售額增長了 2.5%，攤薄後每股收益 3.83 美元，增長了近 9%。我們的可比商店銷售增長是由 1.8% 的交易增長和 0.6% 的門票增長推動的。我們預計並很高興看到比較交易恢復正值，並且這種趨勢一直持續到第三季度。

We began the quarter with mid-single-digit comp sales growth in both April and May. As we moved through the month of June, we experienced a noticeable slowdown in our seasonal categories with the period coming in modestly positive. In my 25 years in retail, June was one of the most topsyturvy months that I have seen, smoke, drought, heat, hit had a little bit of it all.

本季度伊始，我們在 4 月和 5 月的銷售額均實現了中個位數增長。當我們進入六月時，我們的季節性類別明顯放緩，期間略有積極。在我從事零售業的 25 年裡，6 月是我所見過的最混亂的月份之一，煙霧、乾旱、炎熱、襲擊都有。

As mentioned, our customer base is healthy. Our active customer counts are stable and growing. Importantly, our new customer trends have leveled out after a period of lapping tremendous growth in 2020 and 2021. Our customer satisfaction scores continue to break records and improved year-over-year. And customer demographic trends continue to trend younger and more female than pre-pandemic.

如前所述，我們的客戶群是健康的。我們的活躍客戶數量穩定且不斷增長。重要的是，經過 2020 年和 2021 年的巨大增長，我們的新客戶趨勢已趨於平穩。我們的客戶滿意度得分繼續打破記錄，並逐年提高。與大流行前相比，客戶人口趨勢繼續趨向年輕化、女性化。

Our Neighbor's Club reached a record 31 million members in the quarter, an increase of 5 million members in the last year. We're seeing continued favorable trends from our loyalty members. Retention rates remain at all-time high. Neighbors Club members continue comping at a faster rate than our overall performance and our high-value members reached a record count in the quarter.

我們的鄰居俱樂部在本季度的會員人數達到了創紀錄的 3100 萬，比去年增加了 500 萬。我們看到我們的忠誠會員持續呈現有利的趨勢。保留率保持在歷史最高水平。 Neighbors Club 會員的競爭速度繼續快於我們的整體表現，我們的高價值會員在本季度達到了創紀錄的數量。

A few key trend that we're seeing our customers as follows: one, customers are increasing in their usage of credit. Two, shoppers continue to seek out value, particularly in our lower-income customers. And three, customers are buying a little more often but a little less per trip.

我們看到客戶的幾個關鍵趨勢如下：第一，客戶對信貸的使用正在增加。第二，購物者繼續尋求價值，尤其是低收入客戶。第三，顧客每次出行的購買頻率有所增加，但購買次數有所減少。

Now shifting from our customer to our categories. Our year-round categories were up mid-single digits, indicative of our ongoing market share gains and our demand-driven need-based business model. Our consumable, usable and edible categories continue to deliver strong stable performance and drive trips to Tractor Supply.

現在從我們的客戶轉向我們的類別。我們的全年品類增長了中個位數，這表明我們的市場份額持續增長，以及我們以需求為導向的商業模式。我們的消耗品、可用品和食用品類繼續提供強勁穩定的性能，並推動 Tractor Supply 的發展。

In this quarter, CUE categories had growth in the low double digits. In companion animal, we are gaining substantial share throughout the category. Again, this quarter, we had sequential increases in the number of customers shopping us for this category each week.

本季度，CUE 類別實現低兩位數增長。在伴侶動物方面，我們在整個類別中獲得了相當大的份額。同樣，本季度，每週購買該類別產品的客戶數量連續增加。

In livestock, our spring Chick Days event was one of the largest ever for us with the poultry category up strong double digits. We believe we're on track to exceed last year's record of 11 million birds sold, not only regain growth from existing customers, we are also experiencing robust growth in new customers to the category, and this is driving both trips and ticket.

在畜牧業方面，我們的春季小雞日活動是我們有史以來規模最大的活動之一，家禽類別增長強勁兩位數。我們相信，我們有望超越去年銷售 1100 萬隻鳥的記錄，不僅現有客戶重新獲得增長，而且該類別的新客戶也出現強勁增長，這將推動旅行和門票的增長。

Our seasonal categories were flat and below expectations. The miss was primarily in June when, as mentioned previously, there were a number of choppy environmental conditions across our markets that resulted in the consumer not being as engaged in the categories we expected. This softer seasonal performance in June had a material impact on our second quarter performance and was the main driver of our miss versus our expectations.

我們的季節性類別持平且低於預期。失誤主要發生在 6 月份，正如前面提到的，當時我們市場上存在許多不穩定的環境條件，導致消費者對我們預期的類別不感興趣。六月份季節性表現的疲軟對我們第二季度的表現產生了重大影響，也是導致我們未能達到預期的主要原因。

Our big ticket sales were down in that high single digits and in line with our expectations. And in fact, our performance in the quarter was a sequential improvement from the first quarter. The most significant pressure in the quarter was in zero- turns, generators and recreational vehicles. On the real estate front, we opened 17 new Tractor Supply stores and 3 petsense by Tractor Supply stores in the quarter. For the second consecutive quarter, we've seen the cadence of our new store openings returned to a more normalized rate.

我們的大門票銷量下降瞭如此高的個位數，符合我們的預期。事實上，我們本季度的業績比第一季度連續改善。本季度最大的壓力來自零轉彎、發電機和休閒車。在房地產方面，本季度我們新開了 17 家 Tractor Supply 商店和 3 家 petsense by Tractor Supply 商店。我們連續第二個季度看到新店開業的節奏恢復到更加正常化的速度。

Our petsense Tractor Supply business is performing well and comps in the quarter were greater than over tractor supply. And the integration of Orscheln is right on track. Today, we fully transitioned and rebrand opened 15 locations. We remain very pleased with the customers' response as we convert to the Tractor Supply brand.

我們的 petsense 拖拉機供應業務表現良好，本季度的業績高於拖拉機供應。 Orscheln 的整合正步入正軌。今天，我們全面轉型並重新命名，開設了 15 家門店。當我們轉向 Tractor Supply 品牌時，我們對客戶的反應仍然非常滿意。

Although the operating environment may be different than we anticipated as we entered the year, I'm incredibly proud of how the team has come together to navigate the various circumstances and control what we can control.

儘管運營環境可能與我們進入這一年時的預期有所不同，但我對團隊如何齊心協力應對各種情況並控制我們可以控制的事情感到非常自豪。

Now transitioning to an update on our Life Out Here strategy. We remain very confident in our long-term growth outlook. We participate in a large fragmented and attractive market. We continue to benefit from numerous structural tailwinds, including rural revitalization, home setting, self-reliance and pet ownership. We have numerous substantive competitive advantages and are investing to expand them through our Life Out Here strategy.

現在過渡到我們的“這裡的生活”戰略的更新。我們對長期增長前景仍然充滿信心。我們參與一個龐大、分散且有吸引力的市場。我們繼續受益於眾多結構性有利因素，包括鄉村振興、家居環境、自力更生和養寵物。我們擁有眾多實質性競爭優勢，並正在通過“Life Out Here”戰略進行投資以擴大這些優勢。

Since we first embarked on our strategy in the fall of 2020, the team has made remarkable progress on the transformation of Tractor Supply. As a reminder, the 5 pillars of our strategy include: deliver legendary customer experiences, advance our ONETractor capabilities, operate the Tractor Way, go the country mile for our team and generate healthy shareholder returns. And the key initiatives that support this strategy include our Project Fusion store remodels, our Garden Center transformation, our Neighbor's Club loyalty program and the expansion of our omnichannel capabilities.

自2020年秋季首次啟動戰略以來，團隊在Tractor Supply的轉型方面取得了顯著進展。提醒一下，我們戰略的 5 個支柱包括：提供傳奇的客戶體驗、提升我們的 ONETractor 能力、以拖拉機方式運營、為我們的團隊走遍鄉村，並為股東創造可觀的回報。支持這一戰略的關鍵舉措包括我們的 Project Fusion 商店改造、花園中心改造、鄰居俱樂部忠誠度計劃以及全渠道能力的擴展。

Our Project Fusion store layout is now in over 700 stores, representing greater than 30% of our store base. This program is enhancing our space productivity with improved layout, signage, SKU expansions and improved adjacencies. And for remodels, it also offers an improved customer shopping experience that is much more contemporary.

我們的 Project Fusion 商店佈局現已遍布 700 多家商店，占我們商店總數的 30% 以上。該計劃通過改進佈局、標牌、SKU 擴展和改進鄰接來提高我們的空間生產力。對於改造，它還提供了更加現代的改進的客戶購物體驗。

Complementing Project Fusion is the sideline transformation, which is leveraging and expanding our existing outdoor side lot retail to drive greater productivity and convenience with the addition of a Garden Center and a drive-through pickup lane to support our omnichannel technology investments. With more than 400 Garden Centers today, we've significantly expanded our assortment of lawn and garden products that are relevant to our customers' lifestyle.

與 Project Fusion 相輔相成的是副業轉型，即利用和擴展我們現有的戶外副業零售店，通過增加花園中心和汽車直通式皮卡車道來支持我們的全渠道技術投資，從而提高生產力和便利性。如今，我們擁有 400 多個花園中心，顯著擴大了與客戶生活方式相關的草坪和花園產品種類。

Importantly, these 2 projects are delivering on our return expectations. They're providing material sales lift. We're seeing improvement in customer satisfaction and we're seeing higher levels of new customer acquisition in these remodeled stores. Also, our execution on the remodels continues to improve as we're in year 3 now of the effort, and we're reducing project costs and also continuing to shorten construction times.

重要的是，這兩個項目正在實現我們的回報預期。他們正在提供物質銷售提升。我們看到客戶滿意度有所提高，並且在這些改造後的商店中獲得了更高水平的新客戶。此外，我們的改造執行情況持續改善，因為我們現在已進入第三年，我們正在降低項目成本，並繼續縮短施工時間。

We relaunched our Neighbor's Club program to a points-based structure in April of 2021 and the timing was very fortuitous as it allowed us to lock in the millions of new customers that found us through the pandemic. In total, since the relaunch, our membership has increased by 12 million members, a 60% increase. Additionally, the design of the program has facilitated upward spend migration and driven strong retention rates.

我們於 2021 年 4 月重新推出了基於積分的鄰居俱樂部計劃，時機非常偶然，因為它使我們能夠鎖定在疫情期間找到我們的數百萬新客戶。自重新推出以來，我們的會員總數已增加 1200 萬名會員，增幅達 60%。此外，該計劃的設計促進了支出向上遷移並推動了強勁的保留率。

Lastly, the program provides invaluable insight into our customer behavior and allowed to personalize our offering tailored to their needs. Look for us to evolve the structure again sometime in the next 12 to 18 months to further enhance value for our members.

最後，該計劃為我們的客戶行為提供了寶貴的洞察力，並允許根據他們的需求定制我們的產品。希望我們在未來 12 至 18 個月的某個時候再次改進該結構，以進一步提高會員的價值。

Underpinning our strategy are substantial investments in our distribution network to support the significant sales increase and store growth. Today, our network is achieving record service levels and the strongest productivity we've experienced in the last 5 years. Our new state-of-the-art distribution center in Navarre, Ohio, and our increased count of mixing centers now up to 15 and the implementation of engineered labor standards, are all contributing to this performance.

我們戰略的基礎是對分銷網絡的大量投資，以支持銷售額的顯著增長和商店的增長。如今，我們的網絡正在實現過去 5 年來創紀錄的服務水平和最強的生產力。我們在俄亥俄州納瓦拉新建的最先進的配送中心，以及現已增加到 15 個的混合中心，以及工程勞工標準的實施，都對這一業績做出了貢獻。

Today, I'm excited to share with you a new strategic focus area that we've been working on for a little over a year, the transformation of our real estate model, enabled by a number of new capabilities that is designed to deliver material benefit to both revenue growth and operating margin rate and reinforce our long-term guidance.

今天，我很高興與大家分享我們一年多來一直致力於的一個新的戰略重點領域，即我們的房地產模式的轉型，這是由許多旨在提供材料的新功能所實現的有利於收入增長和營業利潤率，並加強我們的長期指導。

First, we're raising our new store growth target. We now believe there is a 3,000 store opportunity domestically for Tractor Supply. This is supported by our total addressable market of more than $180 billion of robust growth and our ongoing market share gains. Our new target represents an increase of 200 stores. And we believe we continue to have significant run rate for growth with high return new stores.

首先，我們提高了新店增長目標。我們現在相信 Tractor Supply 在國內有 3,000 家商店的機會。這得益於我們超過 1800 億美元的潛在市場總額的強勁增長以及我們持續的市場份額增長。我們的新目標是增加 200 家商店。我們相信，憑藉高回報的新店，我們將繼續保持顯著的增長速度。

Second, we're implementing new capabilities to enable owned and development of new store builds. This capability is expected to generate significant construction cost savings and allowing for lower rents in these applicable stores once we sell them post construction. Third, we're also announcing plans to periodically execute sale-leaseback transactions of our existing ownership of 117 stores. And we're going to have a step-up in our ongoing build of stores back to 90 stores per year starting in 2025.

其次，我們正在實施新功能，以支持自有和開發新商店。這種能力預計將顯著節省建築成本，並在我們在施工後出售這些適用商店後降低租金。第三，我們還宣布計劃定期對我們現有的 117 家商店所有權進行售後回租交易。從 2025 年開始，我們將把目前的門店數量增加到每年 90 家。

Today's real estate announcement extends our runway for growth and reinforces our long-term financial model. It's a compelling addition to our Life Out Here strategy that will further solidify our growth for many years to come.

今天的房地產公告拓展了我們的增長跑道，並強化了我們的長期財務模式。這是我們“生活在這裡”戰略的一個引人注目的補充，將進一步鞏固我們未來多年的增長。

And with that, I'll turn it over to John, who can share some more color on our real estate strategy.

接下來，我會將其交給約翰，他可以分享更多關於我們的房地產策略的內容。

Thank you, Hal. It's an exciting time for the store operations in real estate team as we embark on new ways to capture growth and market share while also driving efficiencies in our real estate process. Over the last year, we've installed new leadership talent in our real estate team. This has allowed us to reevaluate where we are in the natural progression of our store growth plans and our ability to leverage our real estate capital structure. This new approach will allow us to realize cost savings and be more nimble with our store portfolio.

謝謝你，哈爾。對於房地產團隊的商店運營來說，這是一個激動人心的時刻，因為我們開始採用新的方法來獲取增長和市場份額，同時提高房地產流程的效率。去年，我們在房地產團隊中任命了新的領導人才。這使我們能夠重新評估我們的商店增長計劃的自然進展以及我們利用房地產資本結構的能力。這種新方法將使我們能夠節省成本，並使我們的商店組合更加靈活。

Our strong outlook for new store growth is a direct correlation of the millions of new customers we have acquired and our overall sales performance over the last several years. This provides us with nearly a decade of new store growth in the United States. We believe these are low risk, high return, organic growth opportunities. We anticipate accelerating our new store growth from approximately 70 stores this year to 80 in 2024 and 90 new stores in 2025 and beyond. Opening highly productive new stores is a core strength and competency of Tractor Supply.

我們對新店增長的強勁前景與我們過去幾年獲得的數百萬新客戶和我們的整體銷售業績直接相關。這為我們提供了近十年來美國新店增長的機會。我們相信這些都是低風險、高回報、有機增長的機會。我們預計新店數量將從今年的約 70 家加速到 2024 年的 80 家，並在 2025 年及以後增加到 90 家新店。開設高生產力的新店是 Tractor Supply 的核心優勢和能力。

We continued strong new store productivity metrics with performance outpacing our historical investment thesis and our stores are profitable in year 1. As part of our growth plan, let's start with new stores. We have developed a new sales forecasting model to determine new stores mature sales and pro forma results to develop our total market store growth opportunity of 3,000 stores. This was the first update to our modeling process in 4 years.

我們繼續保持強勁的新店生產力指標，業績超過了我們的歷史投資理論，並且我們的商店在第一年就實現了盈利。作為我們增長計劃的一部分，讓我們從新店開始。我們開發了新的銷售預測模型來確定新店的成熟銷售和預估結果，以開發我們 3,000 家商店的總市場商店增長機會。這是四年來我們建模流程的首次更新。

We have infused the process with a machine learning model and insights from our 31 million Neighbor's Club members. This gives us tremendous confidence to raise our outlook by 200 stores for a total of 3,000 Tractor Supply stores in the U.S.. To capture this growth, the real estate team is ramping up our pipeline to allow us to accelerate our store openings to 90 new stores by 2025. We are on track to open approximately 70 new stores this year with a step up to 80 new stores in 2024. We have a robust pipeline of new stores in our sites over the next 24 months. In fact, our pipeline is at the best level of development since prior to the pandemic.

我們在此流程中融入了機器學習模型和 3100 萬鄰里俱樂部會員的見解。這給了我們巨大的信心，將我們的前景提高了 200 家商店，使 Tractor Supply 在美國的門店總數達到 3,000 家。為了抓住這一增長，房地產團隊正在擴大我們的渠道，使我們能夠將新店開張速度加快到 90 家到 2025 年。我們今年有望開設約 70 家新店，到 2024 年將增至 80 家新店。未來 24 個月，我們的網站上將擁有大量新店。事實上，我們的管道處於大流行之前以來的最佳發展水平。

The team is also building new capabilities to optimize our real estate portfolio. For instance, we will start on development of stores this year through a fixed fee developer model and over time, anticipate self-development in new stores. This year, we anticipate 20 to 30 of our new stores will be in our own development pipeline, 2024 new store openings, many of which will begin development in this year.

該團隊還在構建新的能力來優化我們的房地產投資組合。例如，我們今年將開始通過固定費用開發商模式開發商店，隨著時間的推移，預計會自行開發新商店。今年，我們預計將有 20 至 30 家新店進入我們自己的開發計劃，2024 年新店開業，其中許多將在今年開始開發。

A benefit of these new programs is our ability to have more control and visibility in this development process. The great news is that we estimate these capabilities will result in a 10% to 20% estimated rent reduction as compared to a developer model build. This rent reduction helps us continue to improve our new store returns.

這些新計劃的一個好處是我們能夠在此開發過程中擁有更多的控制力和可見性。好消息是，與開發者模型構建相比，我們估計這些功能將導致租金減少 10% 到 20%。此次租金降低有助於我們繼續提高新店的回報。

Part of the investment and creation of this development model requires more upfront cash. It is exciting that we are able to fund the sale leaseback of 10 to 15 stores this year out of the 117 stores that we own. Going forward, we plan to use the sale-leaseback program on both existing owned stores as well as new store openings. This program will help fund our planned on store development. It will also capture value in currently owned stores.

這種開發模式的部分投資和創建需要更多的前期現金。令人興奮的是，我們今年能夠為我們擁有的 117 家商店中的 10 到 15 家商店的售後回租提供資金。展望未來，我們計劃對現有的自有商店以及新開的商店使用售後回租計劃。該計劃將幫助資助我們計劃的商店開發。它還將獲取現有商店的價值。

With nearly 2,200 stores, we are also strategically investing in and optimizing our existing store portfolio as part of the lease renewal cycle. All stores will go through an in-depth review to ensure we have the right real estate strategy in place. We will then take action to ensure that all stores have the right location, size, facility, rent structure and format. These factors are critical to the success of our team and stores to deliver legendary customer service.

憑藉近 2,200 家門店，我們還對現有門店組合進行戰略性投資和優化，作為續租週期的一部分。所有商店都將經過深入審查，以確保我們制定正確的房地產策略。然後，我們將採取行動確保所有商店都擁有正確的位置、規模、設施、租金結構和格式。這些因素對於我們的團隊和商店成功提供傳奇的客戶服務至關重要。

With that, let me now pass it over to Kurt for our financial review.

現在，讓我將其轉交給庫爾特進行我們的財務審查。

Thanks, John, and good morning to everyone on the call. Turning to our second quarter results. While our sales trends were below our expectations, I commended team on how they have remained nimble and steadfast in our commitment to be the dependable supplier for Life Out Here. In many ways, our second quarter top line results were very consistent with our results in the first quarter with strong CUE growth, flattish seasonal performance and a decline in big ticket sales. .

謝謝約翰，祝所有參加電話會議的人早上好。轉向我們第二季度的業績。雖然我們的銷售趨勢低於我們的預期，但我讚揚了團隊如何保持靈活和堅定的承諾，成為 Life Out Here 的可靠供應商。在很多方面，我們第二季度的營收結果與第一季度的結果非常一致，CUE 增長強勁，季節性表現持平，大門票銷售下降。 。

Our comparable store sales growth was the strongest in the Far West, South Atlantic and Texas, Oklahoma. The strength of these regions was offset by pressure in the Northeast and Midwest regions where seasonal trends added incremental pressure on consumer demand. Comp sales in the quarter benefited by about 5 percentage points from retail price inflation. Most of this inflation reflects retail price increases that put in place in the second half of 2022 that we have not lapped as of yet.

我們的可比商店銷售增長在遠西部、南大西洋和德克薩斯州、俄克拉荷馬州最為強勁。這些地區的強勢被東北和中西部地區的壓力所抵消，這些地區的季節性趨勢增加了消費者需求的增量壓力。本季度的比較銷售額因零售價格上漲而增長了約 5 個百分點。這種通脹大部分反映了 2022 年下半年零售價格的上漲，但我們迄今為止尚未完成。

Much like the first quarter, the benefit of price inflation to our average ticket growth was offset by the impact of 3 factors: First, the average ticket was impacted by the softness in big ticket and declines in seasonal categories, which run at a higher average ticket. Second, we also experienced softer sales in discretionary and impulse add-on items. Third, on a positive note, we also saw our customers shopping us more frequently, with a slight reduction in the number of items per basket. Overall, our customers are buying more units or pounds from us in total.

與第一季度類似，價格上漲對平均票價增長的好處被三個因素的影響所抵消：首先，平均票價受到大票價疲軟和季節性類別下降的影響，季節性類別的平均票價較高票。其次，我們還經歷了非必需品和衝動附加商品的銷售疲軟。第三，積極的一面是，我們還看到顧客更頻繁地向我們購物，每個購物籃的商品數量略有減少。總體而言，我們的客戶總共從我們這裡購買了更多的單位或磅。

Moving down to income statement. Our gross profit increased 9.3% to $1.51 billion. Gross margin increased 69 basis points to 36.2% from 35.5% in the prior year's second quarter. Gross margin was a highlight for the quarter as we continue to maintain strong product margin from our ongoing execution of an everyday low price strategy. The gross margin rate increase was primarily attributable to lower transportation costs, driven by improvements in the global supply chain and efficiencies of our new distribution center in Navarre, Ohio.

轉到損益表。我們的毛利潤增長 9.3%，達到 15.1 億美元。毛利率從去年第二季度的 35.5% 增長 69 個基點至 36.2%。毛利率是本季度的一大亮點，因為我們持續執行每日低價策略，繼續保持強勁的產品利潤率。毛利率的增長主要歸因於運輸成本的降低，這是由全球供應鏈的改善和我們位於俄亥俄州納瓦拉的新配送中心的效率推動的。

Product mix pressured gross margin given the strength in CUE. This was somewhat offset by the margin improvement from lower big ticket sales, which carry a lower gross margin rate. As a percent of net sales, selling, general and administrative expenses, including depreciation and amortization, increased 77 basis points to 22.8%.

鑑於 CUE 的實力，產品結構對毛利率造成壓力。這在一定程度上被大票銷售下降帶來的利潤率改善所抵消，大票銷售的毛利率較低。銷售、一般和管理費用（包括折舊和攤銷）占淨銷售額的百分比增加了 77 個基點，達到 22.8%。

The increase in SG&A as a percentage of net sales was primarily attributable to our planned growth investments, which included higher depreciation and amortization and the onboarding of our new DC. Additionally, higher medical claims also contributed to the increase in SG&A. The growth in medical claims is due to new benefit offerings that had stronger engagement rates than we anticipated as well as higher program costs overall. We have made some adjustments to the program and will continue to do so. We don't anticipate this to be a headwind in 2024.

SG&A 占淨銷售額百分比的增加主要歸因於我們計劃的增長投資，其中包括更高的折舊和攤銷以及新 DC 的啟用。此外，更高的醫療索賠也促進了銷售管理費用的增加。醫療索賠的增長是由於新的福利產品的參與率比我們預期的要高，而且總體計劃成本更高。我們已經對該計劃進行了一些調整，並將繼續這樣做。我們預計這不會成為 2024 年的阻力。

Approximately 80% of our SG&A growth year-over-year represents investments for growth, such as new stores, the impact of Orscheln Farm and Home, the new DC and the depreciation from our capital investments for items such as Project Fusion remodels and Garden Center transformations. The core SG&A costs leveraged well even in a low comp sales environment. Overall, the team had strong execution and scaled our cost to our sales performance.

我們的 SG&A 同比增長中大約 80% 是增長投資，例如新店、Orscheln Farm and Home、新 DC 的影響以及 Project Fusion 改造和花園中心等項目的資本投資折舊轉變。即使在低競爭的銷售環境中，核心銷售及管理費用也能得到很好的利用。總體而言，該團隊具有強大的執行力，並將我們的成本與銷售業績相匹配。

For the quarter, operating profit margin was 13.4%, an 8 basis points decline from the prior year. Consistent with our guidance from the year, Orscheln stores had a modest drag on operating income, principally due to factors unique to the transition. In Q2, we attribute approximately 10 basis points of operating margin decline to activities relating to Orscheln.

本季度營業利潤率為 13.4%，較上年同期下降 8 個基點。與我們今年的指引一致，Orscheln 商店對營業收入造成了適度的拖累，這主要是由於轉型的獨特因素。在第二季度，我們將營業利潤率下降約 10 個基點歸因於 Orscheln 的相關活動。

Turning now to our balance sheet. Merchandise inventories were $27 billion at the end of the second quarter, representing a decrease of 1.7% in average inventory per store. We are pleased with the quality of our inventory we enter the second half of the year. During the second quarter, we strategically issued $750 million in long-term debt, which brings our weighted average fixed rate to 3.4%. With strong annualized cash flows, we continue to maintain a balance sheet with a leverage ratio of around 2x.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。第二季度末商品庫存為 270 億美元，每店平均庫存下降 1.7%。我們對進入下半年的庫存質量感到滿意。第二季度，我們戰略性地發行了 7.5 億美元的長期債務，這使我們的加權平均固定利率達到 3.4%。憑藉強勁的年化現金流，我們繼續維持槓桿率在 2 倍左右的資產負債表。

At Tractor Supply, we are committed to building on our track record of long-term value creation for our shareholders. Our real estate portfolio management is another way that we can continue to facilitate strong returns. Let me shift now to share a few financial highlights as a result of the evolution of our real estate strategy.

在 Tractor Supply，我們致力於為股東創造長期價值。我們的房地產投資組合管理是我們能夠繼續促進強勁回報的另一種方式。現在讓我分享一下我們房地產戰略演變帶來的一些財務亮點。

The sale leaseback of 10 to 15 owned stores is anticipated to close during the second half of the year, resulting in a net after-tax benefit of about $0.20 per share. We are under contract on 10 stores and expect to close on those stores in the third quarter. The expected net gain reflects a selective reinvestment of a small portion of the benefit from the sale back into our store infrastructure this year. For modeling purposes, the net gains will be recorded in operating income as an offset to SG&A.

10 至 15 家自有商店的售後回租預計將於今年下半年完成，帶來每股約 0.20 美元的稅後淨收益。我們與 10 家商店簽訂了合同，預計將在第三季度關閉這些商店。預期淨收益反映了今年將銷售收益的一小部分選擇性地再投資回我們的商店基礎設施。出於建模目的，淨收益將記錄在營業收入中，作為 SG&A 的抵消。

Given the migration to our new real estate development strategy, we anticipate that we have about a decade of runway from the sale of existing company-owned stores ahead of us. This increases cash flow over the coming years and is a great way for us to lever the strength of our balance sheet. The more efficient owned development program is expected to drive lower new store rent. As the program ramps, these savings are anticipated to more than offset the incremental rent expense from the sale leaseback of existing stores.

鑑於我們正在轉向新的房地產開發戰略，我們預計出售現有公司自營商店還有大約十年的時間。這增加了未來幾年的現金流，是我們槓桿資產負債表實力的好方法。更高效的自有開發計劃預計將降低新店租金。隨著該計劃的推進，預計這些節省的費用將足以抵消現有商店售後回租帶來的增量租金費用。

In 2025 and beyond, the acceleration of our new store growth to about 90 stores annually should help us capture market share and bolster the high end of our long-term guidance ranges. We continue to have very robust new store economics providing us the confidence to make this shift.

到 2025 年及以後，我們的新店增長速度將加速至每年約 90 家，這將有助於我們佔領市場份額並鞏固我們長期指導範圍的高端。我們繼續擁有非常強勁的新店經濟效益，這使我們有信心做出這一轉變。

Now let me turn to our updated fiscal 2023 financial outlook. At the halfway point of the year, we are now forecasting low single-digit comp sales and mid- to high single-digit earnings growth. We continue to believe this will be a year of solid performance for us as we continue to gain market share and advance our strategic initiatives.

現在讓我談談我們最新的 2023 財年財務展望。今年過半，我們預計公司銷售額將達到低個位數，盈利增長將達到中高個位數。我們仍然相信，隨著我們繼續獲得市場份額並推進我們的戰略舉措，這將是我們業績穩健的一年。

We are carefully watching many leading macroeconomic indicators, consumer behavior and retail trends as well as our own insights to assess the health of the consumer. While our customers remain healthy, we are more cautious about their discretionary spending in the second half of the year. At the same time, we are moderating our expectations for the performance of our seasonal categories based on our trends in the first half of the year, that have been choppy lower expectations. We believe it is prudent to recalibrate our expectations for both the discretionary and seasonal categories based on our year-to-date trends.

我們正在仔細觀察許多領先的宏觀經濟指標、消費者行為和零售趨勢以及我們自己的見解來評估消費者的健康狀況。雖然我們的客戶保持健康，但我們對他們下半年的可自由支配支出更加謹慎。與此同時，我們根據上半年的趨勢，調整了對季節性類別表現的預期，這些預期一直波動性較低。我們認為，根據今年迄今的趨勢重新調整我們對非必需品和季節性類別的預期是謹慎的做法。

For the year, we now anticipate net sales in the range of $14.8 billion to $14.9 billion, comp store sales growth of 1.3% to 2.5% growth. Our operating margin rate is expected to be in the range of 10.2% to 10.3% with net income of $1.12 billion to $1.15 billion. Diluted EPS is forecast to be $10.20 to $10.40. This includes a net after-tax benefit of about $0.20 per share for the sale-leaseback. We anticipate about $0.15 will be recognized in Q3 and $0.05 in Q4.

我們目前預計今年的淨銷售額將在 148 億美元至 149 億美元之間，比較店銷售額增長 1.3% 至 2.5%。我們的營業利潤率預計在 10.2% 至 10.3% 之間，淨利潤為 11.2 億美元至 11.5 億美元。稀釋後每股收益預計為 10.20 美元至 10.40 美元。這包括售後回租帶來的每股約 0.20 美元的稅後淨收益。我們預計第三季度將確認約 0.15 美元，第四季度將確認約 0.05 美元。

In the light of the updates to our real estate strategy, anticipated capital expenditures for the year are now forecasted to be in the range of $800 million to $850 million compared to our prior range of $700 million to $775 million. This increase reflects the move to own development for select new store growth that will be funded through the sale of existing stores. It is important to note that the proceeds from the sale of our owned stores are expected to offset the incremental capital outlay under the development program. The combined transactions are expected to be relatively neutral to our cash position.

根據我們房地產戰略的更新，今年的預期資本支出目前預計在 8 億至 8.5 億美元之間，而之前的範圍為 7 億至 7.75 億美元。這一增長反映了為選擇新店增長而轉向自行開發的舉措，這些新店的增長將通過出售現有商店來籌集資金。值得注意的是，出售我們自有商店的收益預計將抵消開發計劃下的增量資本支出。合併後的交易預計對我們的現金狀況相對中性。

As to the calendarization between the third and fourth quarters, we continue to believe that comp sales will be stronger in the third quarter than the fourth quarter. Both quarters are modeled to achieve comp sales growth. Please keep in mind that we are lapping a monumental winter storm in the fourth quarter of 2022 that we estimate contributed 200 basis points to comp sales in the quarter.

至於第三季度和第四季度之間的日曆，我們仍然認為第三季度的銷售量將強於第四季度。這兩個季度都是為了實現銷售額增長而建模的。請記住，我們將在 2022 年第四季度經歷一場巨大的冬季風暴，我們估計該季度的銷售額貢獻了 200 個基點。

As for retail price increases, our plans continue to reflect a moderation from the impact of inflation. At the same time, we would anticipate a pickup in our comp transaction growth as we experienced this quarter. Our guidance reflects ongoing gross margin expansion in the second half of the year, we anticipate continued benefit from transportation and the new distribution center along some pressure from unfavorable product mix.

至於零售價格上漲，我們的計劃繼續反映出通脹影響的放緩。與此同時，我們預計，正如本季度所經歷的那樣，我們的比較交易增長將會有所回升。我們的指引反映了下半年毛利率的持續擴張，我們預計運輸和新配送中心將繼續受益，同時不利的產品組合也會帶來一些壓力。

For the third quarter, our SG&A performance exclusive of the sale leaseback is anticipated to be in line with the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, however, we expect a modest deleverage given the compare in the prior year.

對於第三季度，我們的銷售、一般行政管理（SG&A）業績（不包括售後回租）預計將與第二季度保持一致。然而，與去年相比，我們預計第四季度將出現適度的去槓桿化。

For modeling purposes, the Orscheln stores will go into our comp calculation in 2024 based on when the store is converted to our point-of-sale system. We will share more details when we provide our 2024 outlook.

出於建模目的，Orscheln 商店將根據商店轉換為我們的銷售點系統的時間，在 2024 年納入我們的補償計算。我們將在提供 2024 年展望時分享更多細節。

Looking ahead, we will remain agile and play offense. We will leverage our core competencies that have served us well, all while strengthening our capabilities and investing in our growth strategy. For Tractor Supply, we expect to end the year in a strong position for the future.

展望未來，我們將保持敏捷、進攻。我們將利用一直為我們提供良好服務的核心競爭力，同時加強我們的能力並投資於我們的增長戰略。對於拖拉機供應來說，我們預計今年年底將在未來保持強勢地位。

Now I'll turn the call over to Hal to wrap this up.

現在我將把電話轉給哈爾來結束這件事。

Thanks, Kurt. Stepping back, Tractor Supply has achieved remarkable growth over the past few years, and the team has done an excellent job scaling our processes, capabilities and organization to manage this growth. .

謝謝，庫爾特。退一步來說，Tractor Supply 在過去幾年中取得了顯著的增長，並且該團隊在擴展我們的流程、能力和組織以管理這種增長方面做得非常出色。 。

Key operational areas like inventory and payroll grew materially but at a lesser rate than sales and we're always in control. Key philosophies like ELP were reembraced and our marketing media mix shifted fully away from print to digital. And the combination of these 2 enabled our promotional activity to achieve all-time lows, and we remain there.

庫存和工資等關鍵運營領域大幅增長，但增速低於銷售額，而且我們始終處於掌控之中。像 ELP 這樣的關鍵理念被重新接受，我們的營銷媒體組合完全從印刷轉向數字。這兩者的結合使我們的促銷活動達到了歷史最低點，並且我們保持在這個水平。

In addition to these efforts, we launched our Life Out Here strategy to continue the ongoing information of our business. This strategy helped lock in new customers, substantiate our market share gains and is a platform for our future growth. The timing could not have been better. At the halfway mark of 2023, it is shaping up to be a solid year for Tractor Supply on top of 3 extraordinary years. Our market is stable and our customers remain healthy. The team is effectively controlling what we control.

除了這些努力之外，我們還啟動了 Life Out Here 戰略，以繼續我們業務的持續信息化。這一戰略有助於鎖定新客戶，鞏固我們的市場份額增長，並為我們未來的增長提供平台。時機再好不過了。 2023 年已過半，對於 Tractor Supply 來說，繼經歷了非凡的三年之後，今年將是堅實的一年。我們的市場穩定，我們的客戶保持健康。團隊正在有效地控制我們所控制的內容。

As we celebrate our 85th anniversary, Tractor Supply remains a unique, highly differentiated retailer. Our needs-based business model has a track record of growing through various economic conditions. As a company, we have a proven ability to manage through dynamic environments, whether that is a macroeconomic or seasonal weather trends. Our customers and team members are passionate about the Out Here lifestyle, and they prioritize it. Our customers over-indexes homeowners, landowners, pet owners and animal owners. As the market leader, we have substantial advantages that are getting stronger every day.

在我們慶祝成立 85 週年之際，Tractor Supply 仍然是一家獨特、高度差異化的零售商。我們以需求為基礎的商業模式在各種經濟條件下都取得了增長。作為一家公司，我們擁有經過驗證的管理動態環境的能力，無論是宏觀經濟還是季節性天氣趨勢。我們的客戶和團隊成員對 Out Here 生活方式充滿熱情，並且將其列為優先事項。我們的客戶對房主、土地所有者、寵物主人和動物主人進行了過度評價。作為市場領導者，我們擁有巨大的優勢，而且這些優勢與日俱增。

Additionally, investment in our Life Out Here strategy has critical mass. The natural evolution of our real estate strategy is furthering our competitive advantages. We see meaningful growth potential in our markets. I remain extremely confident that we have a tremendous runway of growth ahead of us and with the right team and the right strategy, we're continuing to build a strong foundation for the future.

此外，對我們的“生活在這裡”戰略的投資具有臨界規模。我們房地產戰略的自然演變正在進一步增強我們的競爭優勢。我們看到我們市場的巨大增長潛力。我仍然非常有信心，我們前面有一個巨大的增長跑道，有了合適的團隊和正確的戰略，我們將繼續為未來奠定堅實的基礎。

With that, let's open up the call for questions.

接下來，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Karen Short with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的凱倫·肖特（Karen Short）。

We're going to just kind of roll 2 into one, if that's okay. So the first question and tied into the second was that I think you always had the assumption that your kind of comp would be 1% to 2% above GDP. And that relationship doesn't seem to be holding right now. So I just want to talk about that. And then excluding the benefit of the sale leaseback, you had also kind of indicated '23 would be the peak investment period for you. And then we should start to see operating margin expansion in 2024. Is this still your thinking? And I guess, again, excluding the sale-leaseback development and the benefit.

如果可以的話，我們將把 2 合為 1。因此，與第二個問題相關的第一個問題是，我認為你總是假設你的薪酬將比 GDP 高出 1% 到 2%。而這種關係目前似乎並不成立。所以我只想談談這個。然後排除售後回租的好處，您還表示“23 年”將是您的投資高峰期。然後我們應該會在 2024 年開始看到營業利潤率的擴張。這仍然是您的想法嗎？我想，再次排除售後回租開發和收益。

Karen, thanks for joining the call. On your first part of the question, comments earlier. We see this period of time is a bit of an aberration versus our kind of ongoing growth algorithm as you see in GDP and you see where PCE is going and then you see the shift from goods to service right now. Service has historically been 68%, 69% of spend, goods kind of 31%, 32%. As you know, goods kind of shifted up to, say, 35%, 36% during the pandemic, we're kind of halfway back on that march back to 31%.

凱倫，感謝您加入通話。關於問題的第一部分，請先發表評論。我們認為，與我們的持續增長算法相比，這段時間有點偏差，正如你在 GDP 中看到的那樣，你會看到 PCE 的走向，然後你會看到現在從商品轉向服務。服務歷來佔支出的 68%、69%，商品佔支出的 31%、32%。如你所知，在大流行期間，商品的佔比上升到了 35%、36%，我們已經回到了 31% 的過程中。

So that, as we said in our prepared remarks, is a bit of a headwind in our business, but certainly expect that we've got maybe halfway to go on that and the level back out in its normal equilibrium and would expect that our growth algorithm would return to that 1% or 2% above GDP growth and the guidance we've given historically. Again, we just view this period of time is a bit of an aberration from that long-term algorithm just given the macro dynamics.

因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，這對我們的業務來說是一個逆風，但我們肯定預計我們可能已經完成了一半，並且水平回到了正常平衡狀態，並且預計我們的增長算法將返回到高於 GDP 增長 1% 或 2% 以及我們歷史上給出的指導。同樣，我們只是認為這段時間與剛剛考慮到宏觀動態的長期算法有點偏差。

And then the second thing is no change to the guidance, so to speak, that we've given on the Out Here. Certainly expect 2023 to still be our peak investment year. As you mentioned, the sale leaseback is really just a $0.20 plus or minus, it will be in every single one of our years going forward as an adder to our EPS, but expect that we'll be at our peak investment period this year, and that will start to moderate down next year with an opportunity for margin expansion accordingly.

第二件事是我們在“Out Here”上給出的指導沒有改變。當然，預計 2023 年仍然是我們的投資高峰年。正如您所提到的，售後回租實際上只是 0.20 美元上下，它將在我們未來的每一年中作為 EPS 的增量，但預計我們今年將處於投資高峰期，明年這一數字將開始放緩，並有機會相應擴大利潤率。

Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scot Ciccarelli 和 Truist 的對話。

Scot Ciccarelli. So I have a question on the real estate changes as well. I mean it makes sense that you guys can improve your cost structure as you take ownership of the build. But if you would expect your stores to remain productive over a long stretch of time. Is this a better model to actually own the stores outright rather than lease in the first place? How obviously, you have some history with that one of your prior shops? Or does this real estate shift suggest that we may see changes to the existing footprint, whether it's changing locations, kind of relocation type scenario or different sizes, et cetera?

斯科特·西卡雷利。所以我也有一個關於房地產變化的問題。我的意思是，當你們擁有構建的所有權時，你們可以改善成本結構，這是有道理的。但如果您希望您的商店能夠在很長一段時間內保持生產力。完全擁有商店而不是首先租賃商店是更好的模式嗎？很明顯，您之前的那家商店有過一些歷史嗎？或者這種房地產的轉變是否表明我們可能會看到現有足蹟的變化，無論是位置的變化、搬遷類型的場景還是不同的規模等等？

Scot, this is Kurt. And the real estate model, as you think about the opportunity that we have to drive a strong performance of new stores that we've seen since there's a structural shift in the tailwinds into the rural economy into our markets, the new stores are performing well. We -- as John mentioned, we built a real estate team that is ready to begin to ramp back up to a 90-ish new store. .

斯科特，這是庫爾特。房地產模式，當你想到我們必須推動新店表現強勁的機會時，我們已經看到，自從農村經濟的順風向我們的市場發生結構性轉變以來，新店表現良好。正如約翰提到的，我們建立了一支房地產團隊，準備開始恢復開設 90 家左右的新店。 。

The sale leaseback of existing stores fits right in with that. We're an asset-light model, do not believe owning stores fit, which is why we have over 95% of our stores under lease. And over time, 30 peers, we've accumulated not strategically a number of owned stores, there's a bit of pent-up value in these stores. And it's a great time right now to use those stores to fuel and be able to keep a cash-neutral value to execute on a strategy that allows us to even further drive new stores, bring efficiency in the new store model.

現有商店的售後回租正好符合這一點。我們是輕資產模式，不認為擁有商店合適，這就是為什麼我們95%以上的商店都是租賃的。隨著時間的推移，30家同行，我們積累了一些非戰略性的自營商店，這些商店有一些被壓抑的價值。現在是利用這些商店來推動並保持現金中性價值以執行戰略的好時機，該戰略使我們能夠進一步推動新商店的發展，提高新商店模式的效率。

So I look at those -- we look at those very much tied in between as a great way to fund a model that drives greater long runway, greater TSR in the overall long-term algorithm, and I really keep both of those very much tied together as part of a key part of our operations.

所以我看看這些——我們把那些緊密聯繫在一起的東西作為資助一個模型的好方法，這個模型可以推動更長的跑道，在整體長期算法中提高TSR，我真的把這兩者都緊密聯繫起來一起作為我們運營的關鍵部分的一部分。

I'll take the rest offline.

我會把剩下的部分離線。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的邁克爾·拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。

So you deemed a 2.5% comp in the second quarter was 500 basis points of like-for-like price inflation. You probably got some demand that was shifted out of 1Q into 2Q. And your guys implied you're going to, call it, 1 to 2 comp for the back half year even as you lag some of the big [price inflation] from last year. So can you give us a sense for what is to accelerate or improve in the business to offset the main contribution from inflation? And have you already started to see that quarter-to-date?

因此，您認為第二季度 2.5% 的同比價格通脹率為 500 個基點。您可能會有一些需求從第一季度轉移到第二季度。你們的人暗示你們將在下半年進行 1 比 2 的補償，即使你們落後於去年的一些大[價格通脹]。那麼您能否讓我們了解如何加速或改善業務以抵消通貨膨脹的主要貢獻？您已經開始看到本季度至今的情況了嗎？

Michael. A couple of things. First of all, I wouldn't -- I don't think it's a fair comment to say we had a shift in Q2. We don't have any data or insights or customer purchase data that would suggest that there is a pull or kind of deferral into Q2 or weather-related kind of shifting into Q2. So I would say that's not something that we have said as you think about from a sequential perspective.

邁克爾.有幾件事。首先，我不會——我認為說我們在第二季度發生了轉變是不公平的評論。我們沒有任何數據或見解或客戶購買數據表明第二季度存在拉力或某種程度的推遲，或者與天氣相關的轉移到第二季度。所以我想說，當你從順序的角度思考時，這不是我們所說的。

The second thing I'd say is we have seen comp transactions sequentially improve throughout the quarter and continuing into Q3 and expect that, that will indicate throughout the year. And on AUR, as we've talked about all along, we expect that, that will moderate through the year. Big ticket lessons as a percent as we get through the year. So that provides a bit of a kind of mix benefit.

我要說的第二件事是，我們看到公司交易在整個季度持續改善，並持續到第三季度，預計這一點將在全年表現出來。至於 AUR，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們預計這一情況將在今年有所緩和。大額課程占我們全年的百分比。因此，這提供了某種混合效益。

And then lastly, on the UPT, we do think we're at close to the bottom of units per transaction. If you go back and look over the last 15 years at our units per transaction trends, we reached an all-time high in the pandemic, people were stocking up and consolidating their trips. We're now much closer to -- where we were during the 2008 Great Recession and kind of reached that bottom. And so we expect that will be a lesser headwind as we move forward. So when you put those things all together, that ends up with the guidance that we shared. And I think we try to be as conservative as possible on the low end and realistic as possible on the high end.

最後，在 UPT 上，我們確實認為我們已接近每筆交易單位的底部。如果你回顧一下過去 15 年我們的每筆交易單位數趨勢，我們在疫情期間達到了歷史最高水平，人們正在囤積並整合他們的旅行。我們現在已經更接近 2008 年大衰退期間的水平，並且已經觸底。因此，我們預計，隨著我們前進，阻力將會減少。因此，當你把這些東西放在一起時，最終就會得到我們分享的指導。我認為我們在低端市場上盡可能保守，在高端市場上盡可能現實。

Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

我們的下一個問題來自查克·格羅姆 (Chuck Grom) 和戈登·哈斯克特研究顧問 (Gordon Haskett Research Advisors)。

There's some concern out there that as households continue to revert back to pre-COVID behaviors of some of the gains that Tractors enjoyed over the past 3 years when sales per store has moved from, call it, $4 million to $6 million will be given back. Curious how you'd address this concern and highly the key drivers that attract their temp control in the back half and into '24?

有人擔心，隨著家庭繼續恢復到新冠疫情之前的行為，拖拉機在過去 3 年中獲得的一些收益（每家商店的銷售額已從 400 萬美元轉向 600 萬美元）將被返還。 。好奇你會如何解決這個問題，並高度關注在後半段和 24 世紀吸引他們溫度控制的關鍵驅動因素？

Chuck, thanks for joining the call. As I think we all know on this call, this has been a question for 18, 24 months. And what I'd say is we continue to see a very healthy customer base. Our active customers were at all-time highs this quarter. We saw positive comp transactions in the quarter. And if you look at the categories that are driving the good steps and driving our customers, it's things like pet, animal, and those are based on accounts of population out there in each of those categories.

查克，感謝您加入通話。我想我們在這次電話會議上都知道，這個問題已經存在 18、24 個月了。我想說的是，我們繼續看到非常健康的客戶群。本季度我們的活躍客戶達到歷史最高水平。我們在本季度看到了積極的補償交易。如果你看看那些推動良好進步並推動我們客戶的類別，就會發現寵物、動物等都是基於每個類別的人口統計。

And so -- and then the last thing I'd point out is our share gain. At least half of the volume that we -- that we've grown over the last handful of years has been share related. And so if I point to share active customers, comp transactions, pet, animal and look at those things. It's just a big different business than many of the other companies that kind of had a pandemic benefit reverted, whether it was technology-related companies that have a user base that shifted online and then pivoted back or maybe something that's home related, electronics related, we're just a very different business and don't see any elements of reversion in our customer bank business.

因此，我要指出的最後一件事是我們的份額增長。過去幾年我們增長的業務量至少有一半與股票相關。因此，如果我指出分享活躍客戶、補償交易、寵物、動物並查看這些內容。與許多其他因疫情而恢復福利的公司相比，這只是一個很大的不同業務，無論是用戶群轉移到線上然後又回歸的技術相關公司，還是與家庭相關、電子產品相關的公司，我們只是一家非常不同的企業，在我們的客戶銀行業務中沒有看到任何回歸的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自丹尼爾·因布羅和斯蒂芬斯的對話。

Hal on who that new customer is, how is the retention trending? I think you mentioned they're younger. So I'm curious, is there a difference in spending power between the most recent vintage of new customers and the historical ones? Are we seeing any change in the neighborhood -- Neighbor's Club adoption? I would think the push toward value makes the loyalty program more valuable. Can you provide any commentary or quantification around how that's trending differently?

Hal 詢問新客戶是誰，保留趨勢如何？我想你提到過他們更年輕。所以我很好奇，最近一批新客戶和歷史客戶的消費能力是否有差異？我們是否看到社區有任何變化——鄰居俱樂部的採用？我認為追求價值會讓忠誠度計劃變得更有價值。您能否就這一趨勢的不同之處提供任何評論或量化？

Daniel, I start out by first thing. We're very pleased with the trends we're seeing in new customers. We had record high new customers in '20 and 2021. As we've talked about on past calls, our neighbor -- and I mentioned in our prepared remarks, the Neighbor's Club program being relaunched in April of '21, with incredible time as it allowed us to lock those new customers in. We've grown, I think, it's 15 million members over the last 3 years in our Neighbor's Club program and we've had increased retention rates of our Neighbor's Club program each of the last few years, too. So we've locked those cohorts in. They're growing with us and they're remaining active.

丹尼爾，我從第一件事開始。我們對新客戶的趨勢感到非常滿意。我們在 20 年和 2021 年擁有創紀錄的新客戶。正如我們在過去的電話中談到的那樣，我們的鄰居 - 我在我們準備好的發言中提到，鄰居俱樂部計劃於 21 年 4 月重新啟動，時間令人難以置信它讓我們能夠鎖定這些新客戶。我認為，在過去 3 年裡，我們的 Neighbor's Club 計劃的會員數量已經增長到了 1500 萬，而且過去幾年我們的 Neighbor's Club 計劃的保留率逐年提高年，也是。因此，我們鎖定了這些群體。他們與我們一起成長，並且保持活躍。

Certainly, as we got into 2022 and things balance, we saw our new customer accounts on a year-over basis trend down. That is now leveled out and we feel really good about our new customer trends as we move forward. Sequentially, that should be helpful as we look at year-over-year improvements.

當然，隨著進入 2022 年，情況趨於平衡，我們看到我們的新客戶賬戶同比呈下降趨勢。現在這種情況已經趨於平穩，隨著我們的前進，我們對新客戶趨勢感到非常滿意。因此，當我們看到逐年改進時，這應該會有所幫助。

On the Neighbor's Club program continue to be very pleased with the 31, 32 million members in Neighbor's Club that we have. Our top tier has grown, and we reached a record number of customers in our top tier. Retention rates remain at all-time highs and continue to improve, and our Neighbor's Club members continue to outcomp our overall base and again, that's on 75% of our sales. So as I've said several times, our customer base is very healthy. Record active customers, positive comp transactions, solid trends in new customers and feel really good as we're heading into the third quarter on our active customer base and our strength of our customer.

關於鄰里俱樂部計劃，我們對鄰里俱樂部擁有 31、3200 萬會員繼續感到非常滿意。我們的頂級客戶數量不斷增長，我們的頂級客戶數量達到了創紀錄的水平。保留率保持在歷史最高水平並繼續提高，我們的 Neighbor's Club 會員繼續超越我們的整體基礎，這再次占我們銷售額的 75%。正如我多次說過的，我們的客戶群非常健康。記錄活躍客戶、積極的補償交易、新客戶的穩定趨勢，隨著我們進入第三季度，我們的活躍客戶群和客戶實力感覺非常好。

Our next question goes to the line of Seth Sigman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題涉及塞思·西格曼與巴克萊銀行的關係。

So my question is around the second half guidance, the implied margins. It does seem like you're baking in potentially more margin improvement in the second half of the year versus the first half of the year. Despite potentially lower comps. And I know some of that now is the sale leaseback. But I guess 2 questions. One, can you just remind us and maybe help bridge some of the drivers for the second half margin expansion? And then second, how do you think about potentially reinvesting more of that margin improvement given the sales performance that you're seeing?

所以我的問題是關於下半年的指導，即隱含利潤率。與上半年相比，您似乎確實在下半年實現了更多的利潤率改善。儘管可能比較低。我知道現在其中一些是售後回租。但我想有兩個問題。第一，您能否提醒我們，也許可以幫助彌補下半年利潤率擴張的一些驅動因素？其次，考慮到您所看到的銷售業績，您如何考慮將更多利潤改善進行再投資？

Seth, this is Kurt. I'll take the first part of that question, and I'll let Estep, answered the second part in regards to the reinvestment of any margin. The performance on an operating margin standpoint for the second half on a gross margin standpoint will be very similar to second quarter. We continue to see and as we signaled and guided at the beginning of the year, we have strong performance from everyday low pricing. We expect to continue to see transportation being the biggest benefit and fueling of the gross margin expansion. .

賽斯，這是庫爾特。我將回答該問題的第一部分，然後讓埃斯特普回答有關任何保證金再投資的第二部分。從毛利率角度來看，下半年的營業利潤率表現將與第二季度非常相似。我們繼續看到，正如我們在年初所發出的信號和指導那樣，我們從每日的低價中獲得了強勁的業績。我們預計交通運輸將繼續成為最大的利益並推動毛利率的擴張。 。

As a reminder, over the 2 years where transportation costs were a pressure, we absorbed most of that. And this is anticipating some of the transitory we're getting the return on that in 2023.

提醒一下，在運輸成本成為壓力的兩年裡，我們承擔了其中的大部分。這是預計我們將在 2023 年獲得一些暫時的回報。

On an SG&A standpoint, what really is -- that's really the big difference in, say, the second half, as you're observing, we expect Q3 on an SG&A standpoint, excluding the sale-leaseback benefit to perform very similar to Q2 in that 70, 80 basis points deleveraged, principally from the investments in the business. But Q4 really has the best compares. And so in line with what we expect to go in the year, when you look back at the fourth quarter of last year where while we had robust sales, we had increased cost in repairs from the storm. We had Orscheln acquisition transition, we had higher incentive compensation.

從 SG&A 的角度來看，真正的情況是——這確實是下半年的巨大差異，正如您所觀察到的，我們預計從 SG&A 的角度來看，第三季度（不包括售後回租收益）的表現與第二季度非常相似。 70、80 個基點去槓桿化，主要來自於業務投資。但第四季度確實有最好的比較。因此，與我們對今年的預期一致，當你回顧去年第四季度時，雖然我們的銷售強勁，但風暴造成的維修成本增加了。我們進行了 Orscheln 收購轉型，我們有更高的激勵薪酬。

We are lapping that, and we expect in the fourth quarter, excluding the benefit from any sale leaseback to really still only have a modest level of SG&A deleverage principally on the compares. So if you hold the gross margin, you get a better performance on SG&A, it's really about how well we're managing the spend. And also can't ignore that the team has done excellent job scaling the cost leveraging investments we made, we are seeing significant efficiencies even SG&A on the distribution and supply chain side of the business, driving lower cost and some efficiencies beyond our expectations. With that, Estep, maybe you can address the second part of that question.

我們正在努力做到這一點，我們預計在第四季度，排除任何售後回租帶來的好處，主要是在比較中，SG&A 去槓桿化實際上仍然只有適度的水平。因此，如果你保持毛利率，你就會在SG&A方面獲得更好的表現，這實際上取決於我們管理支出的情況。而且也不能忽視的是，該團隊在擴展我們所做的成本槓桿投資方面做得非常出色，我們看到業務的分銷和供應鏈方面的 SG&A 效率顯著提高，從而降低了成本，並且某些效率超出了我們的預期。埃斯特普，也許你可以解決這個問題的第二部分。

Yes. Thanks, Kurt. Yes, in relation to should we reinvest and how we think about that. First, I would just say EDLP remains our true north. And that strategy continues to pay off for us if you look at the success we're having with our cumulated activity, our transactions and our continued record kind of customer accounts that are coming to Tractor Supply. And our plan is to continue to maintain that EDLP focus and not to revert from that.

是的。謝謝，庫爾特。是的，關於我們是否應該再投資以及我們如何看待這一問題。首先，我只想說 EDLP 仍然是我們真正的方向。如果您看看我們在累計活動、交易以及拖拉機供應公司持續創紀錄的客戶賬戶方面所取得的成功，那麼這一戰略將繼續為我們帶來回報。我們的計劃是繼續保持 EDLP 的重點，而不是恢復原樣。

We will reinvest if we decide we need to, but we do not foresee a need for any meaningful type of reinvestment. And lastly, I would just kind of say is that our inventory position continues to be very strong and very favorable. And as we look ahead to the back half, instead of kind of a reinvestment in margin, we put ourselves in a position to really partner with our key suppliers to go out there, get specialized, go after key values and make sure we have meaningful values for our customers to drive the full basket.

如果我們決定需要的話，我們將進行再投資，但我們預計不需要任何有意義類型的再投資。最後，我想說的是，我們的庫存狀況仍然非常強勁且非常有利。當我們展望下半年時，我們不是對利潤進行再投資，而是讓自己真正與我們的主要供應商合作，走出去，變得專業化，追求關鍵價值，並確保我們有有意義的為我們的客戶帶來推動整個購物籃的價值。

So I'm very pleased. I think we have an incredible team. We've got a great reactivity coming forward that we can manage the top line -- we can drive the top line, drive market share, while at the same time, really be able to manage the margin structure as well.

所以我很高興。我認為我們擁有一支令人難以置信的團隊。我們有很大的反應，我們可以管理營收——我們可以提高營收，提高市場份額，同時，也真正能夠管理利潤結構。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自彼得·本尼迪克特和​​貝爾德的對話。

So I wanted to maybe help speak a little bit more about the historical context here. I mean you started to mention some things in answering Mike Lasser's question, but obviously, we're coming off of a period with COVID, you're starting to see this normalization occur, the behavior of your consumer is changing.

所以我想或許能幫助更多地談論這裡的歷史背景。我的意思是，你在回答 Mike Lasser 的問題時開始提到了一些事情，但顯然，我們正在經歷新冠疫情時期，你開始看到這種正常化的發生，消費者的行為正在發生變化。

Maybe just talk a little bit more about what that means to the credit, the basket trends? And then what we think that kind of indicating here over the next kind of 6 to 12 months? I know you're assuming this will continue in the back half of this year, but how are you just thinking about it longer term?

也許只是多談談這對信用、籃子趨勢意味著什麼？那麼我們認為在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內這表明了什麼？我知道您認為這種情況將在今年下半年持續下去，但您如何從長遠考慮？

Peter, if you look back over 30 years of this company's cost growth, it's been almost equally split, 50-50 between average ticket and comp transactions. And if you look really at our body of work over the last 3.5 years during the pandemic, there's definitely been periods of time of inflation periods of time of UPT increases. When you look at it collectively, it's about 50-50 comp transactions and average ticket. And that's just the formula that has really just kind of always been there in our historical numbers. .

Peter，如果你回顧一下這家公司 30 多年來的成本增長，你會發現平均門票交易和贈品交易幾乎各佔 50-50。如果你仔細觀察我們過去 3.5 年在疫情期間的工作，就會發現確實存在通貨膨脹時期和 UPT 增加時期。當你整體來看時，大約有 50-50 筆補償交易和平均門票。這就是我們歷史數據中一直存在的公式。 。

And our expectation as that we navigate current economy that we're operating in and the consumer behaviors that, we will migrate back to that historical blend as we kind of exit this year and move into next year. And there's going to be some imbalances we said in the second half of this year where we expect UPT, the headwind there to kind of level out as we get towards the end of the year. And we expect AUR to kind of come down. Those will work a little bit together. Big ticket becomes a lesser portion of sales. And so we get that mix benefit there. That all works out to an okay average ticket. We're seeing comp transactions increase. That kind of balances a little bit right now and ends up delivering on the kind of implied guidance that we have for the for the second half of the year.

我們的期望是，隨著我們今年退出並進入明年，我們將在當前的經濟和消費者行為中回歸歷史混合。我們在今年下半年說過，將會出現一些不平衡現象，我們預計 UPT 的逆風會在接近年底時趨於平穩。我們預計 AUR 會有所下降。這些將一起發揮作用。大額門票變成了銷售的較小部分。所以我們在那裡得到了混合效益。這一切都算出一張還不錯的平均票。我們看到補償交易有所增加。現在這種平衡有點平衡，最終實現了我們為下半年提供的隱含指導。

On the comp transactions, as I said, we had all-time record active customers this quarter. Our active customer base grew this past quarter. They're shopping us more frequently. We're seeing them do a little bit of deconsolidation of their trips, as Kurt mentioned, but we're also gaining significant share in footsteps. And in categories like pet food, where we continue to take substantial share we're really viewed as kind of a value played out a warehouse like model. I mean our average pet food bag size is 35 pounds. And that's very different than, say, pet specialty and others.

在補償交易方面，正如我所說，本季度我們的活躍客戶創下歷史新高。我們的活躍客戶群在上個季度有所增長。他們更頻繁地向我們購物。正如庫爾特提到的那樣，我們看到他們對旅行進行了一些分解，但我們也獲得了顯著的足跡份額。在寵物食品等類別中，我們繼續佔據相當大的份額，我們確實被視為通過類似倉庫的模式發揮的價值。我的意思是我們的寵物食品袋平均尺寸為 35 磅。這與寵物專業和其他專業有很大不同。

And if you look at a price per pound basis, I mean we can be as good as 20% -- 25%, 30% advantage on a price per pound basis. And -- so we're just -- that naturally drives split steps in our stores. So the mix will evolve a little bit throughout the balance of this year, but we've certainly bought it all through and expect that over time, it will revert back to its historical performance of kind of a 50-50 blend.

如果你看一下每磅的價格，我的意思是我們可以在每磅的價格基礎上有 20% - 25%、30% 的優勢。而且——所以我們只是——這自然會推動我們商店的分步行動。因此，混合比例將在今年餘下的時間裡發生一些變化，但我們當然已經購買了它，並預計隨著時間的推移，它將恢復到 50-50 混合比例的歷史表現。

Our next question will come from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自彼得·基思和派珀·桑德勒的對話。

I wanted to just follow up on the real estate strategy and just putting in the context of your long-term algorithm. Is it meaningful enough that perhaps some of those targets on an annualized basis be I'm just looking specifically at the sales growth target of 6% to 7% and then EPS growth target of 8% to 11%?

我只想跟進房地產策略，並將其置於長期算法的背景下。也許其中一些年化目標只是特別關注 6% 至 7% 的銷售增長目標，然後是 8% 至 11% 的每股收益增長目標，這是否足夠有意義？

Peter, this is Kurt. The new real estate model, one of the many things that we're excited about is not only does it give us a long runway, but to your point, you move from 70 to 90 stores a year is driving incremental sales. Those new stores have been expected to have a consistent tailwind into the comps. We believe this new real estate strategy not only gives us a longer runway, but really strengthens the long-term algorithm, gives us more confidence in that and bolster the higher end of that.

彼得，這是庫爾特。新的房地產模式是令我們興奮的眾多事情之一，它不僅為我們提供了一條漫長的跑道，而且就您的觀點而言，您每年從 70 家商店遷至 90 家商店正在推動增量銷售。預計這些新店將持續推動競爭。我們相信，這一新的房地產戰略不僅為我們提供了更長的跑道，而且真正加強了長期算法，讓我們對此更有信心，並支持其更高端。

Midyear through the year, when we typically don't and aren't adjusting our long-term guidance, we certainly will factor all of that in, along with the outlook for 2024. As we reported on our Q4 earnings, typically refreshing any adjustments to our long-term target at this point. But we're excited about what to do to the long-term algorithm and the overall total shareholder return.

年中，當我們通常不會也不會調整我們的長期指導時，我們當然會考慮所有這些因素以及 2024 年的前景。正如我們報告第四季度收益時，通常會刷新任何調整達到我們目前的長期目標。但我們對如何處理長期算法和整體股東總回報感到興奮。

Our next question will come from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自布萊恩·內格爾和奧本海默的對話。

So the question I have, maybe just dig a little bit deeper to the comps around the trends in seasonal sales. What -- you talked a lot about weakness or follows similar to what we saw in Q1. But any geographic differences that you noticed? And then as we move on into Q3, recognizing you have driven guidance a year. Did you see any type of rebound in seasonal sales as maybe some of these weather some not all of historic abate?

所以我的問題是，也許只是更深入地了解季節性銷售趨勢的比較。你談到了很多關於弱點的內容，或者與我們在第一季度看到的類似的情況。但您注意到任何地理差異嗎？然後，當我們進入第三季度時，認識到您推動了一年的指導。您是否看到季節性銷售出現任何類型的反彈，因為其中一些可能會出現歷史性的減弱？

Yes, Brian. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the seasonal business was kind of on expectations in the months of April and May. We talked about that in our earnings calls for Q1, given kind of a quarter-to-date perspective on that. And also just our commentary through the quarter publicly. And then June, as I mentioned, we saw a significant underperforming seasonal business. And that was really the bulk of our miss in the entire quarter with our seasonal business in the month of June.

是的，布萊恩。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，四月和五月的季節性業務有點符合預期。我們在第一季度的財報電話會議中討論了這一點，並給出了季度至今的觀點。這也是我們對本季度的公開評論。然後，正如我提到的，六月份我們看到季節性業務表現明顯不佳。這確實是我們整個季度 6 月份季節性業務的大部分失誤。

As I mentioned, there was a topsy-turvy quarter particularly in the month of June with all the various environmental conditions that were out there. But to your point, we did see bright spots at moments in time throughout the quarter as well as certain parts of the geography. As an example, the kind of 10 days leading up to Memorial Day were very good from a seasonal perspective and total business perspective. So sun shine out almost across the entire in the country. And we had a really good 10-day run there.

正如我所提到的，有一個混亂的季度，特別是在六月份，那裡的環境條件各不相同。但就您的觀點而言，我們確實在整個季度以及某些地區的某些時刻看到了亮點。例如，從季節性角度和整體業務角度來看，陣亡將士紀念日之前的 10 天都非常好。所以陽光幾乎照遍了整個國家。我們在那裡度過了非常愉快的 10 天。

Historically, you see something like that for at least a few weeks over the spring, we just only had that kind of short period. But if you look at the Southeast and the South Atlantic, as Kurt called out, we had excellent performance there. From time to time in the both Texas home at Far West, when we had good seasonal performance, we had strong -- I mean, good weather, we had seasonal performance there.

從歷史上看，在春季至少有幾週的時間裡你會看到類似的情況，但我們只經歷了那麼短的一段時間。但如果你看看東南部和南大西洋，正如庫爾特所說，我們在那裡表現出色。有時，在德克薩斯州遠西的主場，當我們有良好的季節性表現時，我們有很強的——我的意思是，天氣好，我們在那裡有季節性表現。

And then kurt called out some of our underperforming regions around the Midwest and the Northeast and the Midwest went straight from winter to drought. And in the month of June, it ranged 21 days in the Northeast. And so the -- those were large contributors to the underperformance in the month of June. So anyway, that's just a little bit of more depth and commentary there, Brian.

然後科特指出我們中西部和東北部周圍一些表現不佳的地區，而中西部地區直接從冬天變成了乾旱。 6月，東北地區有21天。因此，這些是導致 6 月份表現不佳的主要原因。不管怎樣，布萊恩，這只是更深入的一點和評論。

Our next question will come from the line of Zach Fadem with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Zach Fadem。

Hal, you had hinted at another iteration of the Neighbor's Club program at some point in 2024. So first of all, can you talk about the lift -- the comp lift you saw in the last time you updated the program? And is there any info you can share on the types of changes that are on the table that you think could make the program better?

Hal，您曾暗示將在 2024 年的某個時候再次迭代鄰居俱樂部計劃。首先，您能否談談提升——您上次更新該計劃時看到的補償提升？對於您認為可以使該計劃變得更好的現有更改類型，您是否可以分享任何信息？

Zach, very perceptive. First off, I'd say on the comps, it's hard to calculate that, both given the magnitude of the comps that we had in that period. But what I -- given the magnitude, but what I would say is we can absolutely look at the 15 million Neighbor's Club members that we've added over the last few years, and when they started to shop with us and how we lock them in using the Neighbor's Club program, and I spoke to that many times, but we feel great on the cohorts from that first revision of our Neighbor's Club program. .

扎克，很有洞察力。首先，我想說的是，在比較方面，很難計算這一點，因為考慮到我們在那段時期的比較規模。但我想說的是，考慮到規模，我們絕對可以看看過去幾年我們增加的 1500 萬鄰居俱樂部會員，以及他們何時開始在我們這裡購物以及我們如何鎖定他們在使用鄰居俱樂部計劃方面，我多次談到過這一點，但我們對鄰居俱樂部計劃第一次修訂後的群體感到非常滿意。 。

As we move ahead, there's a lot of -- we've been getting a lot of feedback from our customers and how we can make it even better in the next version. Doing some things to uniquely call out certain characteristics of customers if they're say a horse owner or say a military better, what can we do to better tailor that when they self-identify. There's also things we can do on our rewards and maybe bite sizing the rewards at giving some $5 awards instead of always $10 rewards.

隨著我們的前進，我們從客戶那裡得到了很多反饋，以及我們如何在下一個版本中使其變得更好。做一些事情來獨特地呼喚客戶的某些特徵，如果他們說是馬主或更好地說是軍人，當他們自我認同時我們可以做些什麼來更好地定制。我們還可以對獎勵做一些事情，也許可以調整獎勵的大小，給予一些 5 美元的獎勵，而不是總是 10 美元的獎勵。

We're also looking at a way to add, say, [$4], perhaps even the fifth year. As we mentioned, we've got our largest number of highest value customers ever, how do we actually take it up another tier and you get further rewards for those that are in that tier.

我們還在尋找一種方法來添加，例如，[$4]，甚至可能是第五年。正如我們所提到的，我們擁有有史以來數量最多的最高價值客戶，我們如何真正將其提升到另一個級別，並且您可以為該級別的客戶獲得進一步的獎勵。

So looking at a lot of ways that, again, it's the program locks our customers in. It encourages spin, it encourage migration, it really encourages purchasing on big ticket and then redemption on the CUE businesses. We're just looking for ways to reinforce that more and also make it more personable for our customers. And the team is hard to work on it. We have more detail on it. We look forward to sharing it.

因此，從很多方面來看，該計劃再次鎖定了我們的客戶。它鼓勵旋轉，鼓勵遷移，它確實鼓勵大額購買，然後在 CUE 業務上兌換。我們只是在尋找方法來進一步強化這一點，並使其對我們的客戶來說更加風度翩翩。而且團隊在這方面也很努力。我們有更多關於它的細節。我們期待與您分享。

Our final question will go to the line of Stephen Zaccone with Citigroup.

我們的最後一個問題將涉及花旗集團的斯蒂芬·扎科內 (Stephen Zaccone)。

So I wanted to just go back to the sales guidance change. Just to better understand how much of the change in sales guidance is really the seasonal missing expectations versus the discretionary being a bit weaker? In one sense, the first half was really choppy with weather throughout the year as you've discussed. So that would be helpful. And then when you think about getting back to mid-single digit comps, which is the original guidance. What's the biggest kind of drivers to get you back to that trend in the business?

所以我想回到銷售指導的變化。只是為了更好地了解銷售指導的變化有多少實際上是季節性缺失預期與可自由支配的稍弱一些？從某種意義上說，正如您所討論的，上半年的天氣確實很不穩定。所以這會很有幫助。然後當你考慮回到中個位數的比較時，這是最初的指導。讓您回到業務趨勢的最大驅動力是什麼？

Stephen, this is Kurt. I appreciate the question. The -- as we talked about when Brian asked the question on Q2 back to the fact that, a bit of Q2's performance you have to acknowledge that as we saw some differentiation between some of the geographies, that indicates weather was a contributor. But even in some of the strong geographies and across all that, we saw a pullback on some of the discretionary.

斯蒂芬，這是庫爾特。我很欣賞這個問題。正如我們在布萊恩問第二季度的問題時所談到的那樣，你必須承認第二季度的一些表現，因為我們看到一些地理位置之間存在一些差異，這表明天氣是一個因素。但即使在一些實力雄厚的地區，我們也看到了一些可自由支配權的縮減。

We're going into the second half acknowledging that it's a different seasonal period of time, particularly in the Q4. We plan for base weather. We do not plan for more favorable weather. And at this point, on the seasonal categories, unless we look at it as base and unless there's a strong demand for our product because of a shift in weather seasonal, the consumer on some of the discretionary items is a little bit more prudent on that today.

進入下半年，我們承認這是一個不同的季節性時期，特別是在第四季度。我們為基礎天氣做好計劃。我們不打算迎接更有利的天氣。在這一點上，在季節性類別上，除非我們將其視為基礎，並且除非由於天氣季節性變化而對我們的產品有強勁的需求，否則消費者對某些非必需品的需求會更加謹慎今天。

And then also, we acknowledge, as I mentioned, some of the impulse in discretionary categories. So we anticipate that the consumer behavior is in line with the first half of the year. We're taking a reasonable prudent approach there. And then we're also factoring in the strong winter storm that we had in the fourth quarter that we're lapping up against. But underpinning all of that, is a strength in our year-round core business running in the mid-single digits, comp transactions still performing strong at this point, and we've got a really good, healthy customer. Hal mentioned some of the shifts that we've seen, UPT coming some of it ties.

然後，正如我所提到的，我們也承認在可自由支配的類別中存在一些衝動。因此，我們預計消費者行為與上半年一致。我們正在採取合理謹慎的態度。然後我們還考慮到了第四季度我們所面臨的強烈冬季風暴。但支撐這一切的是我們全年核心業務的實力，以中個位數運行，補償交易目前仍然表現強勁，而且我們擁有一個非常好的、健康的客戶。 Hal 提到了我們看到的一些轉變，UPT 的到來與其中的一些聯繫有關。

As you revert back to the mid-single digits, it's really a matter of UPT, and the consumer coming off of the cycle as we've seen in the last couple of quarters and really having more strength in the size of their basket and the demand for the discretionary, and we could be a couple of quarters away from that, and we factored into our guidance. Our guidance is reasonable. We're not factoring in a favorable shift in the consumer or a strong shift in favorable weather. It's taken all those factors that we've seen year-to-date as well as some of the headwinds in the second half. .

當你回到中間個位數時，這實際上是 UPT 的問題，消費者擺脫了這個週期，正如我們在過去幾個季度中看到的那樣，他們的購物籃規模和購買力確實變得更強。對可自由支配權的需求，我們可能還需要幾個季度才能實現這一目標，我們已將其納入我們的指導中。我們的指導是合理的。我們沒有考慮消費者的有利轉變或有利天氣的強烈轉變。考慮到了今年迄今為止我們看到的所有這些因素以及下半年的一些不利因素。 。

That will conclude our question-and-answer session. So at this time, I will pass the conference back over to Mary Winn for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節就到此結束。因此，此時，我將把會議交回給瑪麗·溫 (Mary Winn) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Megan. This will conclude our call. I am available for any questions or follow-ups. So please feel free to reach out, and we look forward to speaking to you at our Q3 earnings call in October. So thank you. .

謝謝你，梅根。我們的通話到此結束。我可以解答任何問題或跟進。因此，請隨時與我們聯繫，我們期待在 10 月份的第三季度財報電話會議上與您交談。所以謝謝。 。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. I hope you have a wonderful day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。我希望你有一個美好的一天。