Tronox Holdings PLC (TROX) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to the Tronox Holdings first quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加Tronox Holdings 2026年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)提醒各位,本次電話會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Jennifer Guenther, Chief Sustainability Officer, Head of Investor Relations and External Affairs. Thank you. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把電話會議交給永續長、投資人關係與對外事務主管Jennifer Guenther。謝謝。請開始。

  • Jennifer Guenther - Chief Sustainability Officer, Head of Investor Relations and Financial Planning

    Jennifer Guenther - Chief Sustainability Officer, Head of Investor Relations and Financial Planning

  • Thank you, and welcome to our first quarter 2026 conference call and webcast.

    謝謝,歡迎參加我們2026年第一季電話會議與網路直播。

  • Turning to slide 2. On our call today are John Romano, Chief Executive Officer; and John Srivisal, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will be using slides as we move through today's call. You can access the presentation on our website at investor.tronox.com.

    請看投影片2。今天與會者包括執行長John Romano,以及資深副總裁兼財務長John Srivisal。我們將在今天的電話會議中使用投影片。您可至我們網站 investor.tronox.com 取得簡報。

  • Moving to slide 3. A friendly reminder that comments made on this call and the information provided in our presentation and on our website include certain statements that are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to the specific factors summarized in our SEC filings. This information represents our best judgment based on what we know today. However, actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

    請看投影片3。溫馨提醒,本次電話會議中的評論,以及我們簡報與網站所提供的資訊,包含若干前瞻性陳述,並可能受到各種風險與不確定性影響,包括但不限於我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)申報文件中所摘要的特定因素。這些資訊代表我們基於目前所知所做的最佳判斷。然而,實際結果可能因上述風險與不確定性而有所不同。本公司不承擔更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述之義務。

  • During the conference call, we will refer to certain non-US GAAP financial terms that we use in the management of our business and believe are useful to investors in evaluating the company's performance. Reconciliations to their nearest US GAAP terms are provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of the accompanying presentation. Additionally, please note that all financial comparisons made during the call are on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將提及若干非美國一般公認會計原則(Non-US GAAP)的財務指標,我們在管理業務時使用,並認為有助於投資人評估公司表現。與最接近之美國一般公認會計原則(US GAAP)指標的調節表,已載於我們的財報新聞稿及隨附簡報的附錄中。此外,請注意,除非另有說明,本次電話會議中的所有財務比較皆為年對年(YoY)基礎。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Romano. John?

    現在我很高興把電話會議交給John Romano。John?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Jennifer. And good morning, everyone. We'll begin this morning on slide 4. But before turning to our first quarter highlights, I want to address the situation in the Middle East.

    謝謝你,Jennifer。各位早安。我們今天從投影片4開始。不過在談第一季重點之前,我想先談談中東局勢。

  • First and foremost, we offer our thoughts to those affected. Since the conflict began, the safety of our employees has been our top priority. With respect to our operations in Saudi Arabia, our teams continue to operate safely and responsibly throughout the quarter, and I want to recognize their focus and professionalism during this challenging period.

    首先,我們向所有受影響的人致上關懷。自衝突開始以來,員工安全一直是我們的首要任務。就我們在沙烏地阿拉伯的營運而言,我們的團隊在整個季度持續以安全且負責任的方式運作,我也要肯定他們在這段艱難期間所展現的專注與專業。

  • While the situation remains fluid, we're seeing significant impacts across the chemical sector and specifically the TiO2 industry. While various costs such as natural gas, diesel, freight, and insurance are rising, one of the most meaningful cost increases has been sulfur and sulfuric acid.

    雖然情勢仍在變動,我們已看到化工產業,尤其是二氧化鈦(TiO2)產業受到顯著影響。天然氣、柴油、運輸與保險等各項成本都在上升,而其中最具影響力的成本上升之一是硫磺與硫酸。

  • I mentioned on our Q4 earnings call that sulfur prices in China had increased approximately 160% since the end of 2024 due to supply tightening and demand increases. Now that figure is almost 300% as the conflicts has exacerbated impacts to the industry. This is having significant impacts on TiO2 producers that produce sulfate TiO2 predominantly in China, where approximately 80% of the production capacity of sulfate technology. This challenge is not only increasing costs, but also availability, which we believe will have a negative impact on Chinese producers' ability to produce and ship TiO2, the extent of which will depend on how long the conflict lasts.

    我在第四季財報電話會議中提到,由於供給趨緊與需求增加,自2024年底以來,中國的硫磺價格已上漲約160%。如今該數字接近300%,因為衝突加劇了對產業的影響。這對以硫酸法二氧化鈦為主的TiO2生產商造成重大衝擊,主要集中在中國;中國約占硫酸法技術產能的80%。這項挑戰不僅推升成本,也影響供應可得性;我們認為這將對中國生產商生產與出貨TiO2的能力造成負面影響,影響程度將取決於衝突持續多久。

  • While many TiO2 producers are challenged by various aspects of the recent conflict, with our broad geographic footprint and more than 90% of our capacity being chloride technology, Tronox is well positioned to reliably supply our customers despite the challenging geopolitical backdrop. We'll review this in more detail throughout the call.

    雖然許多TiO2生產商在近期衝突的各個面向都面臨挑戰,但憑藉我們廣泛的全球布局,且超過90%的產能採用氯化法技術,Tronox具備良好條件,即使在具挑戰性的地緣政治背景下,仍能可靠地供應客戶。我們將在本次電話會議中更詳細地說明。

  • Turning to the quarter, we delivered a strong and better-than-expected top-line performance and achieved EBITDA above the midpoint of our guidance. Volumes exceeded our expectations across both TiO2 and zircon, with TiO2 reaching its highest Q1 level since 2022 and zircon delivering its strongest performance since Q4 of 2021. This is the result of disciplined commercial execution, enhanced customer engagement, and the strategic positioning of our products in key markets supported by our global presence.

    回到本季,我們交出強勁且優於預期的營收表現,並使EBITDA高於指引區間的中位數。TiO2與鋯英砂(zircon)兩項產品的銷量均超出預期;TiO2達到自2022年以來最高的第一季水準,而鋯英砂則創下自2021年第四季以來最強表現。這得益於嚴謹的商業執行、更深入的客戶互動,以及在全球布局支持下,將產品策略性地定位於關鍵市場。

  • We continue to see meaningful structural benefits from anti-dumping measures in protected markets, particularly in Europe, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. With the announcement of anti-dumping investigations against Chinese TiO2 in the UK and Australia, we hope to build on the gains we are seeing in countries that have already acted to strengthen their domestic producers.

    我們持續看到在受保護市場中,反傾銷措施帶來顯著的結構性效益,尤其是在歐洲、巴西與沙烏地阿拉伯。隨著英國與澳洲宣布對中國TiO2展開反傾銷調查,我們希望在已採取行動、強化其本土生產商的國家所見到的成果基礎上,進一步擴大收穫。

  • These measures are having a significant impact on trade flows and positive volume trends for Tronox. Combined with our global footprint and reliable supply, this allowed us not only to serve our customers effectively but also capture the upside as the supply dynamics shifted.

    這些措施正對貿易流向產生重大影響,並為Tronox帶來正向的銷量趨勢。結合我們的全球布局與可靠供應能力,使我們不僅能有效服務客戶,也能在供需動態轉變時掌握上行機會。

  • While Asia Pacific volumes were impacted by the temporary stay on duties in India, performance in the region was more resilient than we expected, reflecting the value customers place on Tronox as a key supplier to the region.

    雖然印度暫緩課徵關稅使亞太地區銷量受到影響,但該區表現仍比我們預期更具韌性,反映客戶將Tronox視為該區關鍵供應商的價值。

  • On pricing, we saw a clear inflection during the first quarter. TiO2 price actions took effect as planned, and we announced additional pricing actions and targeted surcharges that are beginning to roll through in the second quarter. Zircon pricing was stable in Q1, and the announced price increases for Q2 are being implemented as communicated on our last earnings call. Planned and unplanned production curtailments in the industry have led to tighter supply dynamics, supporting price momentum, which we expect will continue throughout the year.

    在價格方面,我們在第一季看到明顯的轉折點。TiO2的調價如期生效,我們也宣布了額外的調價行動與針對性的附加費,並開始在第二季逐步反映。鋯英砂在第一季價格維持穩定,而第二季已宣布的漲價正如我們在上次財報電話會議所溝通的那樣落實執行。產業內計畫性與非計畫性的減產導致供應動態趨緊,支撐價格動能;我們預期此趨勢將延續全年。

  • From a cost perspective, we continue to see the benefits from actions underway, including our cost improvement program, which remains on track to deliver $125 million to $175 million of run rate savings at the end of 2026. These benefits helped to offset a portion of the headwinds we faced during the quarter, including higher sales volumes, pulling forward sales of higher cost inventory.

    從成本角度來看,我們持續受益於正在推動的各項措施,包括成本改善計畫;該計畫仍按進度推進,預計在2026年底可帶來1.25億至1.75億美元的年化節省效益。這些效益有助於抵銷本季面臨的部分逆風,包括銷量增加,以及提前銷售較高成本的庫存。

  • That was the direct result of deliberate actions we took late last year to preserve cash and manage inventory, some of which continued into this year, including lowering operating rates and idling two mines in one of our furnaces in South Africa. In Q1, we ramped up operating rates at our pigment plants to meet the increased demand for our products, which we will touch on a bit later in the call.

    這是我們去年底為保留現金並管理庫存而採取的刻意行動所直接導致,其中部分措施延續至今年,包括降低開工率,以及在南非將兩座礦場與其中一座熔爐暫停運作。第一季,我們提高顏料工廠的開工率,以滿足產品需求增加;我們稍後會在電話會議中再談到這點。

  • In addition, we saw higher cost inflation late in the quarter as the conflict in the Middle East impacted raw material prices. Our commercial team has implemented increases through surcharges, though there will be a lag between when these take effect versus the more immediate impact to our operations. We will continue to assess cost headwinds and take the necessary targeted actions as needed to avoid margin erosion.

    此外,隨著中東衝突影響原物料價格,我們在季度末看到更高的成本通膨。我們的商業團隊已透過附加費實施調升,但這些措施生效與對營運造成較即時影響之間仍會有時間落差。我們將持續評估成本逆風,並在需要時採取必要且具針對性的行動,以避免毛利率侵蝕。

  • We continue to prioritize free cash flow and working capital efficiency, reducing inventory by approximately $75 million in the quarter. Due to our strong commercial performance, we upsized our AR securitization facility by $25 million in the quarter and added an additional $20 million earlier this week. We expect free cash flow to improve in the second quarter, largely offsetting the seasonal cash use in Q1, and we expect to deliver meaningful positive cash flow for the full year 2026.

    我們持續優先聚焦自由現金流與營運資金效率,本季將庫存降低約7,500萬美元。由於我們強勁的商業表現,我們在本季將應收帳款(AR)證券化融資額度提高2,500萬美元,並於本週稍早再增加2,000萬美元。我們預期第二季自由現金流將改善,基本上可抵銷第一季季節性現金使用,並預期2026全年將實現具意義的正向現金流。

  • I'll speak to our expectations for the second quarter and the full year in more detail in the call. But for now, I'm going to turn the call over to John to review our financials for the first quarter in more detail. John.

    我將在本次電話會議中更詳細說明我們對第二季與全年展望的預期。不過現在,我要把電話會議交給John,請他更深入回顧第一季財務表現。John。

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, John. Turning to slide 5. We generated revenue of $760 million, an increase of 3% versus the first quarter of 2025, driven by higher TiO2 and zircon volumes.

    謝謝你,John。請看投影片5。我們創造營收7.60億美元,較2025年第一季增加3%,主要由TiO2與鋯英砂銷量增加所帶動。

  • Loss from operations was $41 million, net loss attributable to Tronox was $103 million. These results include $15 million of restructuring and other charges, net of taxes, primarily related to the closures of Botlek and Fuzhou.

    營業損失為4,100萬美元,歸屬於Tronox的淨損為1.03億美元。這些結果包含1,500萬美元的重整及其他費用(稅後淨額),主要與Botlek與福州(Fuzhou)關閉相關。

  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share was a loss of $0.55. Adjusted EBITDA was $62 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.2%. As is typical for first quarter, free capital was a use of $135 million. Capital expenditures were $67 million.

    調整後稀釋每股盈餘為虧損0.55美元。調整後EBITDA為6,200萬美元,調整後EBITDA利潤率為8.2%。如第一季一貫情況,自由資本為淨流出1.35億美元。資本支出為6,700萬美元。

  • Now let's move to the next slide for a review of our commercial performance. As John mentioned, volumes were stronger than anticipated across both TiO2 and zircon, and pricing increased in line with our expectations.

    現在讓我們進到下一張投影片,回顧我們的商業表現。如 John 所提到,二氧化鈦(TiO2)與鋯英砂(zircon)的銷量均較預期強勁,而價格也如我們預期般上升。

  • Sequentially, TiO2 revenues increased 7%, driven by a 4% increase in volumes and a 3% increase in average selling prices, including mix. Volumes exceeded our expectations, driven by stronger demand on the back of the structural shifts that John mentioned earlier.

    按季來看,TiO2 營收成長 7%,主要受 4% 的銷量成長與 3% 的平均售價上升(含產品組合影響)所帶動。銷量超出我們的預期,主要是因 John 先前提到的供需結構性轉變所帶來的更強勁需求。

  • Zircon revenues increased 14% sequentially, driven by higher volumes, predominantly driven by customers realigning suppliers in a capacity-constrained environment. Zircon pricing remained stable during the quarter, in line with expectations, and price increases were announced in the first quarter that will take effect in the second quarter, as we referenced on our last earnings call.

    鋯英砂營收按季成長 14%,主要由更高的銷量所帶動,而銷量提升主要來自於在產能受限的環境下,客戶重新調整供應商配置。鋯英砂價格在本季維持穩定,符合預期;我們也在第一季宣布調漲,將於第二季生效,正如我們在上次財報電話會議中所提及。

  • Revenue from other products decreased 27% sequentially and 35% compared to the prior year, mainly driven by timing of pig iron bonds, which we will recover in Q2.

    其他產品營收按季下降 27%,較去年同期下降 35%,主要是由於生鐵債券(pig iron bonds)時點因素所致,我們將在第二季收回。

  • Turning to the next slide, I will now review our operating performance for the quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA of $62 million represented a 45% decline year-on-year as a result of unfavorable pricing, including mix, exchange rate headwinds, higher production costs, and higher freight costs. This is partially offset by the increase in sales volumes and SG&A savings.

    接著看下一張投影片,我將回顧本季的營運表現。我們調整後 EBITDA 為 6,200 萬美元,較去年同期下降 45%,原因包括不利的價格(含產品組合)、匯率逆風、更高的生產成本以及更高的運費成本。部分影響由銷量增加與 SG&A 節省所抵銷。

  • Year-over-year production costs increased $7 million, driven by deliberate actions taken over the last year to improve cash generation, along with a higher mix of higher cost tons released from inventory as sales volumes increased.

    與去年同期相比,生產成本增加 700 萬美元,主要是過去一年為提升現金創造能力而採取的刻意措施所致,另因銷量增加而釋出庫存中成本較高的噸數,使高成本產品占比提高。

  • Sequentially, adjusted EBITDA increased 9%. Payable pricing, including mix, higher sales volume and improved production costs were partially offset by exchange rate headwinds, higher freight, and SG&A costs.

    按季來看,調整後 EBITDA 成長 9%。應付價格(含產品組合)、更高的銷量與改善的生產成本,部分被匯率逆風、更高的運費以及 SG&A 成本所抵銷。

  • Turning to the next slide. We ended the quarter with total debt of $3.3 billion and net debt of $3.2 billion. Our weighted average interest rate in Q1 was 5.95%, and we maintained swap such that approximately 74% of our interest rates are fixed through 2028.

    接著看下一張投影片。本季末我們的總債務為 33 億美元,淨債務為 32 億美元。我們第一季的加權平均利率為 5.95%,並維持利率交換安排,使約 74% 的利率在 2028 年前為固定利率。

  • Importantly, our next significant debt maturity is not until 2029. We do not have any financial covenants on our term loans or bonds. We do have one spring financial covenant on our US revolver that we do not expect to trigger.

    重要的是,我們下一筆重大到期債務要到 2029 年才會到期。我們的定期貸款或債券沒有任何財務契約限制。我們在美國循環信貸(US revolver)上有一項彈簧式財務契約(spring financial covenant),我們預期不會觸發。

  • Liquidity as of March 31 was $406 million, including $126 million in cash and cash equivalents. This amount excludes the GBP50 million Emirates revolver, which is undrawn and not expected to be renewed following its expiration in June.

    截至 3 月 31 日的流動性為 4.06 億美元,其中包含 1.26 億美元的現金及約當現金。此金額不包含 5,000 萬英鎊的 Emirates 循環信貸額度,該額度目前未動用,且預期在 6 月到期後不會續約。

  • We also repaid our $40 million Saudi XM facility in the first quarter. We have been in discussions with Saudi XM and are confident in getting a renewal. It just has taken a bit more time given the conflict in the Middle East. This amount has not yet been included in our liquidity figures.

    我們也在第一季償還了 4,000 萬美元的 Saudi XM 融資。我們一直與 Saudi XM 討論,並有信心取得續約;只是由於中東衝突,流程花了較多時間。此金額尚未納入我們的流動性數據。

  • Additionally, as we have said in the past, we will continue to be proactive with our capital structure. And towards that end, as John mentioned, we upsized our ARF securitization facility by $25 million in the first quarter by an additional $20 million earlier this week.

    此外,如同我們過去所說,我們將持續在資本結構上採取積極作為。為此,正如 John 所提到,我們在第一季將 ARF 資產證券化融資額度擴大 2,500 萬美元,並於本週稍早再額外增加 2,000 萬美元。

  • Working capital was a use of approximately $59 million in the first quarter, excluding $19 million of restructuring payments related to the closures of Botlek and Fuzhou. First quarter working capital was better than expected, driven by stronger-than-anticipated sales lines and better-than-planned inventory reductions from targeted working capital initiatives.

    第一季營運資金約使用 5,900 萬美元(不含與 Botlek 與福州(Fuzhou)關閉相關的 1,900 萬美元重整支付)。第一季營運資金表現優於預期,主要受惠於銷售量強於預期,以及透過針對性的營運資金措施使庫存降幅優於計畫。

  • Capital expenditures of the $67 million in the quarter were primarily related to maintenance and safety and we returned $8 million to shareholders in the form of dividends during the quarter.

    本季資本支出為 6,700 萬美元,主要用於維護與安全;同時我們以股利形式向股東回饋 800 萬美元。

  • And with that, I'll hand it back to John to review our capital allocation priorities. John.

    接下來我把時間交回給 John,請他說明我們的資本配置優先順序。John。

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, John. Turning to slide 9. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and focused on cash generation. We continue investing to maintain our assets, our vertical integration, and projects critical to furthering our strategy, including rare earths.

    謝謝你,John。請看第 9 張投影片。我們的資本配置優先順序維持不變,並聚焦於現金創造。我們持續投資以維持資產、垂直整合,以及推進策略所關鍵的專案,包括稀土。

  • As the market recovers, we'll resume debt paydown targeting long-term net leverage of less than 3 times. We'll do that the same way we navigated this downturn, by staying focused on what we can control and influence, reinforcing the business through cost reduction and cash improvement actions.

    隨著市場復甦,我們將恢復償債,目標是長期淨槓桿低於 3 倍。我們將以度過本次景氣下行時相同的方式來達成:專注於我們能控制與影響的事項,透過降本與改善現金的行動來強化業務。

  • While prioritizing cash has meant a near-term trade-off to EBITDA, these actions strengthen the foundation of the company. With that, I'd like to turn to 2026 guidance and walk through some of the assumptions that will drive our performance for the year.

    雖然優先考量現金意味著短期內對 EBITDA 有所取捨,但這些行動能強化公司的基礎。接下來我想談 2026 年指引,並說明幾項將驅動我們全年表現的假設。

  • So turning to slide 10. For the second quarter 2026, we expect TiO2 volumes to increase sequentially in the high-single-digit range. The volume momentum we're seeing is primarily driven by the structural shift in supply dynamics in addition to seasonal demand improvement. This is supported by our ability to reliably serve customers across our global operational footprint.

    請看第 10 張投影片。對於 2026 年第二季,我們預期 TiO2 銷量將按季增加,高個位數百分比區間。我們看到的銷量動能主要來自供應動態的結構性轉變,以及季節性需求改善。這也得益於我們能在全球營運版圖中可靠地服務客戶。

  • On pricing for TiO2, we saw an improvement in the first quarter, and we expect that momentum to build to the second quarter. We're now gaining significant traction on announced increases in every region. We expect TiO2 pricing to increase in the mid-single-digit range in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, and we will continue to evaluate additional price actions and targeted surcharges depending upon the supply-demand dynamics and the evolving situation in the Middle East. We expect Zircon volumes levels to moderate slightly due to inventory availability following a very strong first quarter.

    在 TiO2 定價方面,我們在第一季看到改善,並預期這股動能將延續並在第二季增強。我們在各區域對已宣布的漲價正取得顯著進展。我們預期第二季 TiO2 價格相較第一季將上升中個位數百分比區間;同時,我們也將依供需動態及中東局勢的演變,持續評估進一步的價格行動與針對性的附加費。由於第一季表現非常強勁後的庫存可用性因素,我們預期鋯英砂銷量水準將略為趨緩。

  • On zircon pricing, our previously announced increases had been implemented in the second quarter. And as John mentioned earlier, the zircon market has seen increasing capacity constraints, which we do not expect to abate in the near term. As a result, we expect the pricing momentum to carry through into the third quarter.

    在鋯英砂定價方面,我們先前宣布的漲價已於第二季落實。正如 John 先前提到,鋯英砂市場的產能限制正在加劇,我們預期短期內不會緩解。因此,我們預期價格動能將延續至第三季。

  • From an operational standpoint, as planned, our West mine and one furnace in Namakwa, as well as our [one--up] mine in Australia remained idled. We also have two meaningful planned outages in the second quarter, one on the pigment side and one on the feedstock side to conduct statutorily required and routine maintenance.

    從營運角度來看,依計畫,我們的 West 礦場與 Namakwa 的一座熔爐,以及我們在澳洲的 [one--up] 礦場仍維持停產。我們在第二季也有兩項重要的計畫性停機,一項在顏料端,一項在原料端,以進行法規要求與例行維護。

  • These actions will carry a near-term cost impact to EBITDA. This will be partially offset as we start selling through lower cost tons in Q2 that were produced in Q1. The net effect of these changes will be a $10 million to $15 million cost headwind in Q2 versus Q1. As a result, we expect second quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $65 million to $85 million.

    這些行動將在短期內對 EBITDA 造成成本影響。當我們在第二季開始銷售第一季生產的較低成本噸數時,將部分抵銷該影響。這些變化的淨影響將使第二季相較第一季面臨 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元的成本逆風。因此,我們預期第二季調整後 EBITDA 將落在 6,500 萬至 8,500 萬美元區間。

  • We expect free cash flow to be positive in the second quarter, clawing back a large majority of the cash use from the first quarter. With our pricing momentum combined with our inventory reductions and continued operating discipline, we are well positioned as we move into the second-half of the year.

    我們預期第二季自由現金流將轉為正值,收回第一季現金使用的大部分。結合我們的定價動能、庫存下降以及持續的營運紀律,進入下半年時我們已具備良好定位。

  • Based on what we know today, we are confident that we will generate meaningful positive free cash flow for the full year 2026. Incorporated into our positive cash flow guide for the year are the following assumptions on cash: net cash interest of approximately $190 million, net cash taxes of less than $10 million, capital expenditures of approximately $260 million, and we expect working capital to be a source of cash well in excess of $100 million.

    基於我們目前所掌握的資訊,我們有信心 2026 全年將產生具意義的正向自由現金流。納入我們全年正向現金流指引的現金假設包括:淨現金利息約 1.9 億美元、淨現金稅負低於 1,000 萬美元、資本支出約 2.6 億美元,且我們預期營運資金將成為現金來源,金額遠超過 1 億美元。

  • Turning to slide 11. From a broader perspective, we're operating in a volatile environment. In that context, our focus remains firmly on the things we can control and influence. Over the last several quarters, we've taken deliberate steps to strengthen the business, improving our cost structure, optimizing mix, and reinforcing pricing discipline while maintaining flexibility in how we run our operations. These actions are already positively impacting volumes and pricing even as external conditions remain dynamic.

    請看第 11 張投影片。從更宏觀的角度來看,我們正處於波動的環境中。在此背景下,我們的重點仍堅定放在我們能控制與影響的事項上。過去幾個季度,我們採取了有計畫的步驟來強化業務,包括改善成本結構、優化產品組合,以及在維持營運彈性的同時強化定價紀律。即使外部條件仍在變動,這些行動已開始對銷量與價格帶來正面影響。

  • Global supply chains have been affected by the conflict in the Middle East, resulting in shortages across certain regions. As a result, customers are turning to dependable suppliers contributing to the growth in our order book. At the same time, overall supply remains tighter, though uneven across regions and products, which reinforces the need to continually assess how the supply picture develops.

    中東衝突已影響全球供應鏈,導致部分地區出現短缺。因此,客戶正轉向可靠的供應商,帶動我們訂單簿的成長。同時,整體供應仍然偏緊,且在不同地區與產品之間呈現不均衡,這也強化了我們必須持續評估供應情勢如何演變的必要性。

  • Trade defense remains an important part of the equation. Anti-dumping measures are in place across several key markets, and as I noted earlier, trade defense agencies in the UK and Australia have also opened investigations on Chinese dumping, including the possibility of provisional duties.

    貿易防衛仍是方程式中的重要一環。多個關鍵市場已實施反傾銷措施;此外,如我先前提到的,英國與澳洲的貿易防衛機構也已就中國傾銷展開調查,包括可能課徵臨時性關稅。

  • We are also taking definitive actions on pricing. As I mentioned earlier, we are implementing price increases in all regions, in addition to select surcharges in markets impacted by cost escalation from the conflict in the Middle East. Against that backdrop, we are managing inventory while maintaining flexibility.

    我們也正在對定價採取明確行動。如我先前所述,我們正在所有地區推動漲價,並在受中東衝突導致成本上升影響的市場加收特定附加費。在此背景下,我們在維持彈性的同時管理庫存。

  • While we are not bringing all idle mining assets back online, we are evaluating selective ramp-ups where it makes sense particularly for products where inventory levels are low, such as zircon. Our disciplined and adaptable approach positions Tronox to manage through the current environment and capture meaningful step-up in earnings momentum.

    雖然我們不會讓所有閒置的採礦資產全面重啟,但我們正在評估在合理情況下的選擇性增產,特別是針對庫存水位偏低的產品,例如鋯英砂(zircon)。我們嚴謹且具適應性的做法,使 Tronox 能夠在當前環境中有效應對,並掌握獲利動能的顯著提升。

  • Turning to the next slide, I'll provide a brief update on the rare earths initiatives we have. During the quarter, we continue to make significant advancements in our rare earth strategy. Our primary objective remains to move further downstream into the production of separated rare earth oxides, all while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital management.

    接著看下一張投影片,我將簡要更新我們的稀土計畫。本季我們持續在稀土策略上取得重大進展。我們的主要目標仍是進一步向下游延伸至分離稀土氧化物的生產,同時維持嚴謹的資本管理紀律。

  • Meaningful progress has been achieved in advancing towards our definitive feasibility study, and we are actively evaluating various development pathways. These pathways are being considered with a clear focus on prioritizing returns and limiting any incremental leverage on our balance sheet.

    在推進至最終可行性研究(definitive feasibility study)方面,我們已取得實質進展,並正積極評估多種開發路徑。評估這些路徑時,我們明確聚焦於優先考量報酬,並限制資產負債表上任何新增槓桿。

  • At the same time, we're engaging broadly with stakeholders, including potential customers, strategic partners, and funding sources to identify the most viable and responsible way forward for the project. These ongoing discussions are instrumental in shaping our approach and ensuring that we pursue opportunities that align with both our strategic vision and our values.

    同時,我們也廣泛與利害關係人互動,包括潛在客戶、策略夥伴與資金來源,以找出最可行且最負責任的推進方式。這些持續的討論對於形塑我們的方法至關重要,並確保我們所追求的機會同時符合我們的策略願景與價值觀。

  • Earlier in the week, the Australian Government awarded us Federal Major Project status, which was posted on the Australian Government site this morning, and this was a significant acknowledgment of the viability of our project. Our approach remains steadfast in its dedication to generating long-term shareholder value. We are carefully balancing strategic opportunities with prudent financial management.

    本週稍早,澳洲政府授予我們「聯邦重大專案」(Federal Major Project)資格,並於今早公布在澳洲政府網站上;這是對我們專案可行性的重大肯定。我們的方法仍堅定致力於創造長期股東價值。我們正審慎在策略機會與穩健的財務管理之間取得平衡。

  • We believe that the rare earths represents a compelling growth platform for Tronox, leveraging our existing mining footprint and our expertise in hydrometallurgical and chemical operations to create new avenues for sustainable growth.

    我們相信,稀土對 Tronox 而言是一個極具吸引力的成長平台,可運用我們既有的採礦布局,以及在濕法冶金與化學營運方面的專業能力,開創可持續成長的新途徑。

  • So that concludes our prepared remarks. We'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call, so I'll hand the call back over to the operator to facilitate. Operator.

    以上為我們預先準備的發言。接下來我們將進入問答環節,我把電話交回給接線員以協助進行。接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

    (接線員指示)德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的 David Begleiter。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Good morning, John. On your Q2 EBITDA guidance, even taking into account the cost headwinds you laid out there, how does the low end of that guidance range play out for you? What would you need to see to get there sitting here today?

    早安,John。關於你們第二季 EBITDA 的指引,即使把你剛才提到的成本逆風因素納入考量,該指引區間的下緣對你們而言會如何實現?以今天此刻來看,你們需要看到什麼情況才會落到那個水準?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So maybe I'll speak more towards how I get to the high end of the range as opposed to the low end of the range. A lot of that's going to depend on volume.

    我或許更想談談我們如何達到區間上緣,而不是下緣。這其中很大一部分將取決於出貨量。

  • So we've got that -- I made the reference that our order books -- maybe I'll just back up. When we entered the year, if you think about supply/demand globally, there was a deficit with all the capacity that had been pulled out. So when I say deficit, there was less supply than there was demand.

    我提到過我們的訂單簿——我先稍微倒回來說。當我們進入今年時,如果你從全球供需來看,因為有不少產能被退出,所以市場是供給不足的。所謂不足,就是供給少於需求。

  • So we were already expecting, as I mentioned in the last call, that we were starting to see volume improvements. We had a 9% increase in volume in the fourth quarter, 5% increase improvement in the second quarter -- I mean, in the first quarter, and I've just given you an idea what our volume increase looks like for the third quarter -- I mean, the second quarter. That number that I referenced, high single-digit, could be in the 10s if we have the inventory to actually fill those orders.

    因此我們原本就預期——如我在上次電話會議提到的——我們開始看到出貨量改善。第四季出貨量增加 9%,第一季改善增加 5%,而我也剛給了你們第二季出貨量增幅的大致概念。剛才我提到的「高個位數」可能會到兩位數(10% 以上),前提是我們有足夠庫存能實際滿足這些訂單。

  • We pre-position inventory globally to make sure we can meet our customers' demand, and we've done a very good job. Our commercial team has done an excellent job of doing that. There has been, with a conflict in the Middle East, a little bit of delays in shipping, that's not the bigger issue. The bigger issue is that we depleted a lot of our inventory, and we've got more orders on our order book than we can fill. So to the extent we can fill those orders, we'll be closer to the top end of that range.

    我們在全球預先配置庫存,以確保能滿足客戶需求,而且我們做得非常好;我們的商務團隊在這方面表現非常出色。中東衝突確實造成一些運輸延遲,但那不是更大的問題。更大的問題是我們消耗了大量庫存,而訂單簿上的訂單多到我們無法全部交付。因此,只要我們能夠交付更多訂單,我們就會更接近該區間的上緣。

  • There's other elements that will kind of fill into that range that we provided on EBITDA. I mentioned we had two major outages, one on the pigment side and one on the mining side of the business. Both of those, one of those is a statutorily required maintenance project that is done every 10 years. To the extent we come out of that outage on track or earlier, that could have a positive impact on the EBITDA and the same thing with the SR kiln, which is on the mining side.

    此外,還有其他因素會影響我們所提供的 EBITDA 區間。我提到我們有兩起重大停機,一起在顏料業務端,另一起在採礦業務端。其中一項是法規要求的維護專案,每 10 年進行一次。若我們能按計畫或提前完成該停機,可能會對 EBITDA 產生正面影響;採礦端的 SR 窯爐也是同樣道理。

  • So we have a re-line of our SR kiln, that happens about every four years. Again, those were planned, those weren't unplanned outages. The SR kiln is about halfway through the process, we're making good progress and we have a very good plan for our outage at our pigment plant to work through that as well. So lots of puts and takes on where we are on that guide. Hopefully, that answers your question.

    我們的 SR 窯爐需要重新內襯(re-line),大約每四年一次。同樣地,這些都是計畫性停機,並非非計畫性停機。SR 窯爐目前大約完成一半流程,進度良好;而顏料廠的停機我們也有非常完善的計畫來推進。因此,在指引上有許多正負因素的拉鋸。希望這回答了你的問題。

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • I think, David, obviously, as this is a very volatile market. And so raw material costs have escalated significantly and are very volatile in the quarter. So while generally our guide range is informed more heavily by our commercial side of it, as John mentioned, we do see some volatility on the raw material side. And as we are implementing surcharges as well. So we expect over the fullness of time to recover that and be margin neutral around it, but there is some delay particularly in Q2.

    David,我想很明顯地,這是一個波動非常大的市場。因此,本季原物料成本大幅上升且波動劇烈。雖然我們的指引區間通常更主要是由商務端因素所驅動,如 John 所提到的,但我們確實也看到原物料端的波動。此外,我們也在實施附加費。我們預期隨著時間推進,將能回收這些成本,使其對毛利影響大致中性,但在第二季確實會有一些延遲。

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And specifically, that delay. So again, when we think about when the conflict started, we got more cost improvements or increases and we had inventory that we had to work through with our customers, so not all of our inventory was impacted by that conflict immediately.

    而就這個延遲而言——同樣地,當我們回想衝突開始的時間點,我們看到更多成本改善或成本上升的變化,同時我們還有庫存需要與客戶一起消化,因此並非所有庫存都會立刻受到該衝突影響。

  • But when we made reference on the prepared comments that the surcharges that we're implementing, which are largely driven by sulfur, so the biggest surcharge that we're actually implementing is for our Bahia facility, that went into effect May 1. So that's kind of a delay. We had all of April where we didn't actually get the benefit of that, and then in May and June, we will get the benefit of that surcharge.

    但如我們在預備發言中提到,我們正在實施的附加費主要是由硫磺所驅動;我們實際上最大的附加費是針對 Bahia 廠區,並於 5 月 1 日生效。這就形成了時間差:整個 4 月我們其實沒有享受到該附加費的效益,而在 5 月與 6 月我們將會享受到該附加費帶來的效益。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Very helpful. And John, just on European capacity situation with Lomond buying Greatham and announcing a restore of production, what do you think these former events or assets are largely still running or up and running in this weakened demand environment?

    非常有幫助。John,另外關於歐洲產能情況,Lomond 收購 Greatham 並宣布恢復生產,你認為在需求疲弱的環境下,這些先前的事件或資產大致上仍在運轉,或會重新啟動嗎?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great question, thanks. So Scarlino and Huelva, I think those assets will come back up. It will take time to do that. It's hard to say if we were starting a brand new or starting a plant that had been down for a period of time. Those are two separate buyers. I do believe one of them was the previous sulfuric acid producer, so it was kind of a strategic reason why they brought that plant back up. Both of those plants were naplate capacity of 80,000 tons, so 80,000 tons, that's 160,000 tons.

    好問題,謝謝。Scarlino 和 Huelva,我認為那些資產會重新啟動,但需要時間。很難說這是從零開始,或是重啟一座停產一段時間的工廠;這是兩個不同的買家。我確實相信其中一個買家是先前的硫酸生產商,因此他們讓該工廠復產有其策略性原因。這兩座工廠的名義產能(nameplate capacity)各為 80,000 噸,也就是 80,000 噸加 80,000 噸,合計 160,000 噸。

  • On the announced closure, I guess, with Lomond buying the facility at Greatham, I believe that's going to take longer. The reality is that plant has been down since September and they made an announcement that they had hired back 132 people. We've got a plant not far from there that's equivalent size, 132 people is not going to run the full breadth of that production. So there's lots of assumptions on what Lomond may do.

    至於已宣布的關閉——我想是指 Lomond 收購 Greatham 的廠區——我認為那會需要更久。事實上,那座工廠自 9 月以來就停產,他們宣布已召回 132 名員工。我們在那附近有一座規模相當的工廠,但 132 人不足以支撐該產線的完整產能運作。因此,對於 Lomond 可能會怎麼做,仍有許多假設空間。

  • As I mentioned in the prepared comments. The UK has now officially launched an anti-dumping initiative for the UK, and we have good confidence that we're going to get good results and possibly get provisional duties in place maybe sometime in the third quarter.

    如同我在事先準備的評論中提到的,英國現在已正式啟動針對英國的反傾銷措施,我們相當有信心能取得良好結果,並且可能在第三季的某個時間點開始實施臨時性關稅。

  • The reality is that's not only on finished pigment; that's on products for TiO2 that are as low as 80%. So rumors out there that they may bring in finished pigment or unfinished pigment and finish it at the plant. If anti-dumping is effective, that would prohibit them from doing that as well. So hard to say. That is a chloride facility.

    實際情況是,這不僅針對成品顏料;也涵蓋TiO2含量低至80%的產品。因此外界有傳聞說,他們可能會進口成品顏料或半成品顏料,然後在工廠完成最後加工。如果反傾銷有效,這也會禁止他們這麼做。所以很難說。那是一座氯化法工廠。

  • Chloride facilities that have been down for extended period of time are harder to bring back up, and that is very unique technology. It's plasma arc chloride technology on the oxidation side, which Huntsman created that technology. It took about eight years to develop it, and it's the only technology of its kind. So not to say they won't, but it's not without its challenges. Thank you.

    停產時間較長的氯化法工廠更難重新啟動,而且那是非常獨特的技術。在氧化端採用的是等離子弧氯化技術,這項技術是Huntsman所創建的。它花了大約八年時間開發,而且是同類技術中唯一的一種。所以不是說他們不會做,但確實不是沒有挑戰。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

    BMO Capital Markets 的 John McNulty。

  • John McNulty - Analyst

    John McNulty - Analyst

  • Just because of past, I guess, changes in the mine, operations getting shut down like at Botlek as an example, like there's a lot of kind of volatility on the cost of product, cost of inventory kind of working through your P&L.

    我想因為過去的一些情況,例如礦場的變動、營運被迫關停(以 Botlek 為例),導致產品成本、庫存成本在損益表(P&L)中消化的過程出現很大的波動。

  • I guess, can you help us with some kind of a benchmark on how to think about how those costs improve as we go through the year, whether it's on like a cost-per-ton basis. Or I guess can you help us to kind of get a little peek behind the curtain in terms of how to think about how the cost side flows through, because I think you were pretty clear on the price and how you're thinking about volumes, but admittedly, the cost side seems to be a big part of the equation that's a little bit opaque right now.

    我想請你們協助提供某種基準,讓我們理解這些成本在今年內會如何改善——例如以每噸成本來看。或者能否讓我們稍微「看一下幕後」,幫助我們理解成本端是如何傳導的?因為我覺得你們對價格以及對出貨量的看法講得很清楚,但坦白說,成本端似乎是方程式中很大的一部分,而目前仍有點不透明。

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So maybe I'll start and John, then I'll let you add to it. So for a lot of reasons, in the fourth quarter of last year, we were slowing down production, we weren't running assets as hard, we made reference to Stallingborough going down for extended maintenance, that had an impact on our cost.

    那我先開始,然後 John 再補充。基於很多原因,去年第四季我們放慢了生產,我們沒有把資產開到那麼滿;我們也提到 Stallingborough 因延長維修而停機,這對我們的成本造成了影響。

  • And in this first quarter, we sold more of that high-cost inventory than we expected, which had an impact on our earnings. We do believe that, as I mentioned on the call, that as we get into Q2, we'll start to sell more of the inventory that we made in Q1, which was, in fact, lower cost than what we made in the second quarter.

    而在今年第一季,我們出售的高成本庫存比預期更多,這影響了我們的獲利。我們確實相信,如同我在電話會議上提到的,進入第二季後,我們會開始賣出更多第一季生產的庫存,而那批庫存的成本其實低於我們在第二季生產的成本。

  • So look there's lots of reasons why our costs have gone up. You've got escalations most recently around the war. We don't think those are going to last forever. But if the war ends tomorrow, there will be collateral damage from that for a period afterwards. So I'm not going to speculate on when the war ends,

    所以你看,我們成本上升有很多原因。最近因戰爭帶來的各種成本上漲也在其中。我們不認為這些會永遠持續。但即使戰爭明天就結束,之後一段時間仍會有連帶損害。因此我不會去猜測戰爭何時結束。

  • But we do believe that we are making good progress on cost. The cost improvement program is moving in the right direction. So 2026 forecast for costs for lots of reasons. One, we're going to be running our assets at much higher rates. And we've done a lot of work to mitigate some of the costs. And in areas where we're getting escalations on cost, we're also putting in surcharges to cover it. So it's a little bit, I'd say, mixed.

    但我們確實認為在成本方面正取得良好進展。成本改善計畫正朝正確方向推進。因此,2026 年的成本展望有很多原因:第一,我們將以更高的稼動率運行資產;而且我們已做了大量工作來緩解部分成本。在某些成本出現上漲的領域,我們也在加收附加費(surcharges)來覆蓋。因此我會說,情況有點混合。

  • But, John, if you want to add --

    不過,John,如果你想補充——

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • No, and I think John mentioned that the impact of shutting down and idling some of those facilities for planned maintenance and otherwise was at $10 million to $15 million net of higher cost inventory being sold in the Q2. So you can imagine that the Q2, if you just isolated those operating impacts is going to be probably in the $20 million, $25 million.

    沒有,我想 John 提到過,因計畫性維修及其他原因而關停、閒置部分設施的影響,在扣除第二季出售較高成本庫存的因素後,淨影響約為 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬美元。所以你可以想像,第二季如果只單獨看這些營運面的影響,可能會在 2,000 萬到 2,500 萬美元左右。

  • So we obviously expect, as you roll through the second half of the year, to have a pretty meaningful earnings uplift in the second half of the year each Q3 and Q4. So we don't have any significant unplanned outages in the second half of the year. So you would expect that type of adjustment back in Q3 and Q4?

    因此我們顯然預期,隨著進入下半年,第三季與第四季每一季的獲利都會有相當明顯的提升。我們下半年沒有任何重大的非計畫性停機。因此你會預期在第三季和第四季會把這類調整加回來?

  • John McNulty - Analyst

    John McNulty - Analyst

  • That's helpful to kind of fill in some of the color there. And I guess the second question is just on cash flow. So you had $135 million use of funds in 1Q, and you think you get the bulk of that back in 2Q. So you've got to EBITDA is up, whatever, $10 million, give or take, I guess, help us to bridge the rest of that. What are the kind of the bigger puts and takes there? Presumably, it's going to be in the working capital area, but can you help us to kind of unpack that a little bit?

    這樣的說明有助於補足一些細節。第二個問題是關於現金流:第一季資金使用為 1.35 億美元,而你們認為第二季會收回其中大部分。那麼 EBITDA 增加大概 1,000 萬美元上下,請協助我們把其餘部分串起來。主要的增減項是什麼?推測應該在營運資金(working capital)方面,但你們能否幫我們拆解一下?

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, for Q2, we do have some structural things in Q2 and Q4 that are different because primarily related to our interest bond interest payments of $50 million. So Q1, Q2, and Q4 are $50 million, just lower -- just based on that.

    可以。第二季確實有一些結構性因素與其他季度不同,主要與我們的債券利息支付 5,000 萬美元有關。因此第一季、第二季與第四季各有 5,000 萬美元——只是因為這個因素而較低——就是基於這點。

  • But yeah, the rest of that really relates to our inventory conversion and then cash. We obviously set out on this strategy to operate more for cash. It's proven itself out, $75 million reduction of inventory in Q1, and we do expect a significant amount in Q2 and then a little bit less throughout the year, but still generating a huge cash inflow for the full year. And inventory is the biggest driver of getting to our full year comments that we will have meaningfully positive free cash flow.

    不過,是的,其餘部分主要與我們的庫存轉換以及現金有關。我們顯然已制定這個更以現金為導向的營運策略,而且已證明有效:第一季庫存減少 7,500 萬美元;我們也預期第二季會有相當可觀的減少,之後全年會少一些,但仍會在全年帶來巨大的現金流入。而庫存是我們達成全年評論(即我們將有顯著正的自由現金流)的最大驅動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duffy Fisher, Goldman Sachs.

    Goldman Sachs 的 Duffy Fisher。

  • Duffy Fischer - Analyst

    Duffy Fischer - Analyst

  • First question, just on zircon. Zircon for three years in a row in Q1 has been down on price mix, and collectively, that's down 56% on your published numbers over that period. But yet, you sold 57% more volume at that level.

    第一個問題是關於鋯英砂(zircon)。連續三年第一季,鋯英砂的價格/組合(price mix)都在下滑,合計按你們公布的數據,這段期間下跌了 56%。但同時,你們在那個價位下的銷量卻增加了 57%。

  • So if your commentary that things feel like they're tightening, why wouldn't you hold back supply and try to push for more price? It feels like you're selling a lot of volume to your customers. Kind of rock-bottom prices that allow them to build some inventory that may make prices harder later in the year. But just the strategy there, why not take a value over volume strategy in zircon similar to TiO2?

    所以如果你們的評論是市場感覺正在收緊,為什麼不減少供應、嘗試爭取更高價格?感覺你們以接近谷底的價格賣了大量給客戶,讓他們可以建立一些庫存,這可能會讓今年稍晚的價格更難上去。但就策略而言,為什麼不在鋯英砂上採取類似 TiO2 的「重價值、輕量」策略?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thanks for the question. And what I would say is we had opportunities to sell more in the first quarter than we actually acted on. So there is a balance. We've got customer requirements. We've got pricing that we've announced and have already implemented. So in Q2, as I mentioned, we've got a price increase that was announced and implemented.

    好的,謝謝你的問題。我想說的是,我們在第一季其實有機會賣得比實際更多,所以確實存在一個平衡。我們有客戶需求,也有我們已宣布並且已經落實的定價。因此在第二季,如我提到的,我們已宣布並實施了一次漲價。

  • I signaled that on the prior call that we were announcing increases. So if we could always get it perfect where we can hold the inventory until the highest price, that would be a perfect situation. So we're trying to balance that. The reality is we have got customer requirements. We are seeing some lift in the market.

    我在上一次電話會議就已經釋出訊號,我們會宣布調漲。如果我們總能做到完美——把庫存留到最高價格再賣——那當然是最理想的情況。但我們正在努力在這之間取得平衡。現實是我們有客戶需求,而且我們確實看到市場有一些回升。

  • I mentioned that there were some outages, and we don't expect those outages to abate anytime soon. So you've got about 131,000 tons of zircon production that are roughly offline right now. That's why we believe there will be price upward movement beyond the second quarter. So it wasn't perfectly balanced in a perfect world. I could have waited and sold all of it when the price was higher, but we don't live in a perfect world, and we're trying to manage our customer requirements and commitments at the same time pushing price.

    我提到過有一些停產事件,而我們不預期那些停產會在短期內緩解。所以目前大約有 131,000 噸的鋯英砂產能大致處於離線狀態。這也是為什麼我們相信,除了第二季之外,價格還會有進一步向上的動能。所以在理想世界裡並沒有做到完美平衡;我本可以等到價格更高時再把全部賣掉,但我們不在完美世界裡,我們同時要管理客戶需求與承諾,也要推動價格上行。

  • Duffy Fischer - Analyst

    Duffy Fischer - Analyst

  • And then to jump to TiO2, you talked about the Chinese potentially getting impaired in some markets are boxed out with ADD and things like that. Their sulfur price is up, but yet the export number from March was extremely high. So one, do you think that month was an aberration, and you'll see the export numbers come down meaningfully or. I guess, how do you triangulate those numbers where their exports are growing in what should be a more difficult market for them to export into?

    再跳到 TiO2,你提到中國廠商在某些市場可能受到影響、因反傾銷稅(ADD)等因素而被排除在外;他們的硫磺價格上升,但三月份的出口數字卻非常高。所以第一,你認為那個月份是異常值,之後出口數字會明顯下滑嗎?或者說,你如何綜合解讀這些數據:在對他們而言應該更難出口的市場環境下,他們的出口卻仍在成長?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great question. And we'll know that probably May 28 when the numbers come out. But I do believe more started 1:15 in the morning on February 28. So a lot of those shipments were already on the water.

    好問題。我們大概會在 5 月 28 日數據出來時知道。但我確實相信,更多的出貨是在 2 月 28 日凌晨 1:15 開始的。所以其中很多貨運其實已經在海上了。

  • So again, India stay on duties, we saw a bump up in India, you saw a bump up in Europe, and all those things are right. I would expect, based on what we're seeing in the market today, that those numbers will move down not only in April, but they're going to move down in May as well. So let's just talk a little bit about sulfur.

    所以再說一次,印度的關稅暫停執行,我們看到印度有一波上升,你也看到歐洲有一波上升,這些都沒錯。我預期,基於我們今天在市場上看到的情況,這些數字不只會在 4 月下滑,5 月也會下滑。所以我們來稍微談一下硫。

  • Sulfur prices, and we've got some anecdotal questions even before the call around, are there -- the price increases that China announcing, is that covering cost and giving them additional margin? And the answer is, with what they've announced and implemented, it's barely covering the additional cost of sulfur. So we have a plant in Bazil, they consume sulfuric acid, so we know well what you need to do to cover the cost of the sulfur increase.

    硫的價格,而且在電話會議前我們就收到一些軼聞式的提問:中國宣布的漲價,是否足以覆蓋成本並帶來額外利潤?答案是,以他們已宣布並已落實的幅度來看,幾乎只是勉強覆蓋硫的額外成本。我們在巴西有一座工廠會消耗硫酸,所以我們很清楚要做到什麼程度才能覆蓋硫價上漲的成本。

  • And sulfur prices, as I mentioned, there's been a structural shift in sulfur over the last two years with pricing going up since the end of 2024 by 160%. And there's just not as much sulfur, there's more demand for it, 78% of sulfur goes into fertilizer. So where are you going to push the sulfur, are you going to feed people, are you going to make products like TiO2. So it's not only price, it's availability.

    至於硫價,如我提到的,過去兩年硫出現了結構性轉變;自 2024 年底以來價格上漲了 160%。而且硫的供給就是沒那麼多、需求更高;78% 的硫用於肥料。所以你要把硫推到哪裡?你要用來餵飽人,還是用來做像 TiO2 這樣的產品?所以不只是價格問題,也是可得性問題。

  • Second and third-tier producers are curtailing production, not because of price, because they can't get it. They can't get the sulfur to produce the TiO2, and we're seeing that inflection in our order books. So right now, I mentioned previously, there are certain regions of the world where we're not able to fill orders. If we're able to fill those orders, we'll be able to be closer to the top end of that range. So things are very dynamic.

    第二、第三梯隊的生產商正在限產,不是因為價格,而是因為拿不到。他們拿不到硫來生產 TiO2,而我們也在訂單簿上看到這個拐點。所以目前,如我先前提到的,世界上有些地區我們無法滿足訂單。如果我們能夠滿足那些訂單,我們就能更接近那個區間的上緣。所以情況非常動態。

  • We talked about on an inflection point when the market's going to turn, you'll see a bump up in demand. I'll go back to the point I made earlier or the point that was referenced earlier. So let's just assume Scarlino, Huelva, and Greatham come back online. You've still got 800,000 tons to 900,000 tons of capacity that's left the system. And when the market inflex, which it has, and as I mentioned earlier in the call, we walked into 2026 with a supply deficit to demand.

    我們談到市場何時會出現拐點、何時會反轉,屆時你會看到需求上升。我回到我先前提出或先前被提及的那個點。假設 Scarlino、Huelva 和 Greatham 都重新開工,你仍然有 80 萬噸到 90 萬噸的產能已經退出系統。而當市場出現拐點(它確實已經出現),並且如我在本次電話會議稍早提到的,我們走進 2026 年時,供給相對需求是短缺的。

  • There's a very quick movement. Pricing is moving up at a rate that was much higher than what we expected, and we're very well advanced into negotiations for pricing into the third quarter and have a high level of confidence we're going to make progress on that as well.

    市場變動非常快。價格上漲的速度遠高於我們原先預期;而且我們在第三季定價談判上已經進展很深,並且非常有信心也會在那方面取得進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Zakauskas, JPMorgan.

    Jeff Zakauskas,摩根大通。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • In thinking through the Chinese export data, for the first three months of the year, sulfate exports were flat to down. The growth in exports was in chloride and that their chloride exports went from, I don't know, 100,000 tons to about 135,000 tons, 138,000 tons. So where is that chloride going? Or what are the markets where Chinese exporters seem to be more aggressive in chloride-based tons?

    在思考中國出口數據時,今年前三個月,硫酸法的出口持平到下滑。出口成長是在氯化法,而且氯化法出口從,我不知道,大概 10 萬噸增加到約 13.5 萬噸、13.8 萬噸。所以那些氯化法的量流向哪裡?或者說,中國出口商在哪些市場對氯化法的噸數看起來更積極?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Jeff. It's a great question. And I think right now it's going where most companies that are buying sulfate TiO2 are wanting to flip to chloride. So at this particular stage, companies like Loewen [Billion] are selling everything that they're making. Salt chloride production, I'd say, is a bit more reliable.

    謝謝你,Jeff。這是個好問題。我想目前它流向的是:多數原本購買硫酸法 TiO2 的公司,正在想要轉換到氯化法。所以在這個階段,像 Loewen [Billion] 這樣的公司,基本上是把他們生產的全部都賣掉。氯化法的生產,我會說,相對更可靠一些。

  • At the end of the day, chloride production on the Chinese side is only 20% of what is produced in China, 80% of it is sulfate, and that's heavily impacted. By what I've been referencing, and that's the sulfur move. So there was a clip up in the last month on exports. I do believe when we see the exports coming in the next couple of months, it's going to reverse the other direction.

    歸根結底,中國端的氯化法產量只占中國總產量的 20%,80% 是硫酸法,而硫酸法受到我一直在提到的因素嚴重影響,也就是硫的變動。所以上個月出口有一波上升。我確實相信,當我們看到接下來幾個月的出口數據時,會往相反方向反轉。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • When you talked about a mid-single-digit price increase for the second quarter in TiO2, what part of that is surcharge, and what part of that is price? And all things being equal, do you expect your prices to cover your costs in the second quarter, cost inflation, or not to cover the costs?

    你提到第二季 TiO2 有中個位數的漲價,其中有多少是附加費(surcharge),有多少是價格(price)?在其他條件相同下,你預期第二季你們的價格能否覆蓋你們的成本、成本通膨,還是無法覆蓋?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, great question. So when we think about surcharges versus price increases, we're getting price increases in every region. And a large percentage of our surcharges are in Brazil to cover sulfur. So the sulfur, that's where we're seeing the majority of the increase on sulfur. That's where the majority of the surcharges are.

    是的,好問題。當我們思考附加費相對於漲價時,我們在每個區域都拿到漲價。而我們很大一部分附加費是在巴西,用來覆蓋硫的成本。所以硫——我們看到硫的漲幅主要發生在那裡;附加費也主要在那裡。

  • And from a proportional standpoint, less than a third of what we're doing is surcharges and everything else is price increases. And as we start thinking about moving into the third quarter, we haven't announced any additional surcharges yet. And the price momentum that we're announcing for the third quarter is all price increases, not related to surcharge, not to say that we won't have surcharges if the raw material prices continue to fluctuate and we'll do that to prevent margin erosion.

    從比例來看,我們做的不到三分之一是附加費,其餘都是漲價。當我們開始思考進入第三季時,我們尚未宣布任何額外附加費。而我們對第三季所宣布的價格動能,全部都是漲價,與附加費無關;但這不代表如果原物料價格持續波動,我們不會採取附加費——我們會這麼做以避免毛利被侵蝕。

  • Just quickly on India, there has been a stay on the duties and we're still confident that that's going to come back. But we saw a significant lift in exports out of Asia into India when that stay happened. And now, based on what we're seeing from our customer order book, our engagement with customers in, India is that that's going to flip the other direction.

    再快速談一下印度:關稅目前暫停執行,我們仍然有信心它會恢復。但在暫停發生時,我們看到從亞洲出口到印度顯著增加。而現在,基於我們從客戶訂單簿看到的情況,以及我們與印度客戶的互動,我們認為這將會往相反方向翻轉。

  • Interestingly enough, even with the stay on those duties, our volumes in India did not go down where we expected them to be. And I think a lot of that has to do with our position in the market, our relationship with the market. We had another question that came up later in the quarter from another investor about what we talk a lot about this structural shift in supply/demand. What gives you confidence that your volumes are going to stick around if duties were not to come back, which we do believe they'll come back in India.

    有趣的是,即使關稅暫停,我們在印度的銷量並沒有像我們預期那樣下滑。我認為這很大程度與我們在市場上的定位、以及我們與市場的關係有關。本季稍晚也有另一位投資人問到:我們常談供需的結構性轉變;如果關稅不恢復(雖然我們相信印度會恢復),你們憑什麼有信心你們的銷量能維持?

  • And a lot of that is because we're not just moving volumes to spot buyers. We're moving our volumes to customers that we have strategic relationships and doing that through contractual discussions. And this has a lot to do with customers not wanting to have some of that variability and pulling some of the variability of buying back and forth from China. So not to say that there won't be any risk there, but our commercial team is doing a good job of making sure they're securing volumes not on a spot basis, but on a long-term basis.

    其中很大一部分原因是,我們不是只把量賣給現貨買家。我們把量供應給與我們有策略性關係的客戶,並透過合約性討論來進行。這也與客戶不希望承受那種波動有關——也就是在中國之間來回採購所帶來的變動性。所以不是說完全沒有風險,但我們的商務團隊做得很好,確保他們鎖定的量不是以現貨為基礎,而是以長期為基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

    Hassan Ahmed,Alembic Global。

  • Hassan Ahmed - Analyst

    Hassan Ahmed - Analyst

  • John, just curious about -- you guys, obviously, made a fair number of comments around the rise in sulfuric asset prices. What that's done to the cost curves and the like. So just kind of curious that if we go to the pre-conflict time, right, I mean, there was a large chunk of capacity on the cost curve that was sort of in the red, right? And as you guys rightly pointed out, some of the price hikes that we've seen in China, in particular, are barely just covering the incremental costs. So I'd like to imagine that on a cost curve basis still that chunk of capacity is in the red, right?

    John,我只是好奇——你們顯然對硫酸價格上升做了不少評論,這對成本曲線等造成了什麼影響。所以我想問的是,如果回到衝突前的時期,對吧,我的意思是,在成本曲線上有很大一段產能其實是處於虧損區(in the red),對吧?而且如你們正確指出的,我們在中國看到的一些漲價,特別是,幾乎只是勉強覆蓋增量成本。所以我會想像,從成本曲線角度看,那一段產能仍然是在虧損區,對吧?

  • So what are you guys seeing in terms of the rationalization side of things? Again, in prior calls, you guys would throw a certain number out in terms of how much capacity rationalization you think is going to happen. So just help me sort of put that together in light of where we are on the cost curves Where we are with obviously now sulfur being sort of tricky to attain and also with some of the goings on with Venator's assets.

    那你們在產能出清/合理化(rationalization)方面看到什麼?同樣地,在之前的電話會議中,你們會提出一個數字,說你們認為會有多少產能合理化會發生。所以請幫我把這些拼起來:在成本曲線所處的位置、現在硫變得比較難取得,以及 Venator 資產的一些動態之下,你們怎麼看?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So it's always hard to estimate when Chinese companies are actually going to take TiO2 production offline permanently, but Tier 2 and Tier 3 have already pulled back on production. And a lot of that has to do with just availability of sulfur, not necessarily the price.

    因此,要估算中國公司究竟何時會將 TiO2 產能永久下線一直都很困難,但第二梯隊與第三梯隊已經縮減了產量。而其中很大一部分原因只是硫的供應可得性,不一定是價格。

  • I would agree with you that the price increases that have been announced by the Chinese are barely covering the cost of the sulfur prices that have gone up. When you think about sulfuric acid, as price per sulfur goes up or acid goes up $100, it's like a [3.3:1] add on TiO2. So you all know how much has been announced. It's barely covering the cost. I would expect they'll continue to move that cost of that price up.

    我同意你所說,中國宣布的漲價幅度幾乎只是勉強覆蓋上漲的硫成本。當你想到硫酸時,硫的價格上升或酸價上升 100 美元,對 TiO2 來說就像是 [3.3:1] 的加成。所以你們都知道已宣布的漲幅,幾乎只是覆蓋成本。我預期他們會持續把那部分成本反映到價格上。

  • That being said, we have seen some smaller plants idle capacity in the last six months. We idled up. We permanently closed our plant. So I think it's going to happen. You've still got subsidies that are happening in China. At the end of the day, it's hard for me to actually give you a good answer on when all this capacity is going to come offline and if it will. But I do think that this is going to create more stress and not only on sulfur, but our TiO2 prices are moving up, raw material prices are moving up, and the high tide floats all boats.

    話雖如此,我們在過去六個月確實看到一些較小的工廠讓部分產能停擺。我們也讓產能停下來。我們永久關閉了我們的工廠。所以我認為這會發生。中國仍然有補貼在進行。歸根結底,我很難給你一個很好的答案,說這些產能何時會下線、以及是否真的會下線。但我確實認為這將帶來更大的壓力,不僅在硫上,我們的 TiO2 價格在上升、原材料價格在上升,而水漲船高。

  • So what prices are starting to move up now? Ilmenite. We've seen that as recently in the last three weeks, ilmenite pricings are starting to go up. So there are a lot of headwinds. And it's typically what happens, TiO2 pricing will kind of lead into it and then you'll start to see feedstock move up as well. It's another reason why our vertical integration in an inflationary environment will be beneficial for Tronox.

    那麼現在有哪些價格開始上漲?鈦鐵礦(ilmenite)。我們看到就在最近三週,鈦鐵礦價格開始走高。所以有很多逆風。通常會是這樣:TiO2 價格會先帶動,然後你也會開始看到上游原料價格跟著上升。這也是為什麼在通膨環境下,我們的垂直整合將對 Tronox 有利。

  • Hassan Ahmed - Analyst

    Hassan Ahmed - Analyst

  • Understood. And then, again, you made some comments around Q2 volumes and how they could actually be higher depending on regional inventory availability. So in which regions are you guys seeing the leanest inventory levels? And are you guys prioritizing volume growth or price protection in those regions?

    了解。然後,你也再次提到第二季的銷量,以及在某些地區庫存可得性之下,銷量實際上可能更高。所以你們目前在哪些地區看到庫存水位最精簡?在那些地區,你們是優先追求量的成長,還是優先保護價格?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say in Asia Pacific right now, predominantly in India, because we're seeing a significant inflow of orders there, along with a lot of price improvement, less inventory there. We're having, obviously, in Brazil, we've got inventory limitations. In Europe, to a certain extent, North America, you're running into an uplift in demand, which is seasonally driven. So I would say that we've got a shortage of inventory across the entire portfolio of assets, probably a little bit more focused on Asia.

    我會說目前在亞太地區,主要是在印度,因為我們看到那裡有大量訂單湧入,同時價格也有明顯改善,那裡的庫存較少。當然,在巴西我們有庫存限制。在歐洲某種程度上也是;北美則遇到由季節性因素帶動的需求回升。所以我會說,我們在整個資產組合的庫存都偏緊,可能在亞洲更為明顯一些。

  • And when we start thinking about how we're going to prioritize that, we don't have a lot of spot volume. And I mentioned earlier, as we start to get into these discussions with the structural shift in TiO2 and customers coming to us to offset some of what Chinese produced or used to be supplied by the Chinese, we're looking at strategic customers that want to align with us for the long-term.

    而當我們開始思考要如何優先配置時,我們沒有太多現貨量。我先前也提到,隨著 TiO2 結構性轉變、以及客戶來找我們以彌補部分原本由中國生產或供應的量,我們在尋找希望與我們長期對齊的策略性客戶。

  • So it's not like we're moving out of regions that are strategic, we're maintaining strategic volumes in every region, but every region on pricing is moving up. So to the extent there is volume available that may shift to a region that's generating higher margin. So problem at this particular stage, it's repositioning that inventory is taking a little bit more time than it would have historically due to the conflict in the Middle East, which is also playing favorably for us.

    所以並不是我們要退出某些具有策略性的地區;我們在每個地區都維持策略性供應量,但各地區的價格都在上升。因此,只要有可用的量,可能就會轉向毛利較高的地區。只是現階段的問題在於,因為中東衝突,重新配置這些庫存所需時間比以往更長,而這也對我們有利。

  • I mentioned our operations in Saudi Arabia, which is kind of right in the hotbed of all of those conflict in the Middle East, and that plant has operated unbelievably well. It's running at higher rates than it's run in, I'd say, the last year and a half, costs are in a very good place.

    我提到我們在沙烏地阿拉伯的營運,那裡正處於中東各種衝突的核心地帶,而那座工廠的運轉表現好得令人難以置信。它的運轉率比我認為過去一年半的水準都更高,成本也處在非常好的位置。

  • And with the Strait of Hormuz being closed, there's a lot of volume that Chinese suppliers typically were selling into the Middle East. They're not able to do that anymore. So our volumes, not only in the Middle East, but out of the Middle Eastern plant moving into Europe is being supported by that plant. So lots of great work going on there in a very difficult environment.

    而且隨著荷姆茲海峽被關閉,許多中國供應商通常會賣到中東的量,現在已經無法這麼做了。因此,我們的出貨量不僅在中東增加,從中東工廠運往歐洲的量也因此受到支撐。所以在非常艱難的環境下,那裡有很多很棒的工作正在進行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Spector, UBS.

    Josh Spector,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • I actually wanted to ask a similar question. It's just really when you're talking about that extra demand that may not be filled, I'd just be curious, what region is that coming from? And not thinking about where you're prioritizing your tons, understanding you're doing that for profitability, but where are you kind of maybe upside surprised on where volume is coming in? And is that more orders from existing customers or new customers?

    我其實想問一個類似的問題。就是當你談到那部分可能無法被滿足的額外需求時,我很好奇那是從哪個地區來的?先不談你們把噸數優先配置到哪裡、我理解你們是以獲利為優先,但你們在哪些地方可能對於量的流入感到有上行驚喜?而且那更多是來自既有客戶的追加訂單,還是新客戶?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Josh. So we're getting a lot of inquiries from new customers, most of which we're not filling because, again, I make that reference. We don't have a lot of spot volumes, so we're looking at strategic customers. So is there some shift around where we may be going, where customers, quite frankly, don't want the price increase, then yes, we may shift volume around.

    謝謝你,Josh。我們收到很多新客戶的詢問,但多數我們沒有承接,因為我再次提到,我們沒有太多現貨量,所以我們在看的是策略性客戶。所以是否會有一些轉移——坦白說,當客戶不想接受漲價時,是的,我們可能會調整供貨量的去向。

  • But again, Asia is very impacted by the conflict in the Middle East because a lot of what they're getting is coming from the Middle East. So I would say that's the area where we're seeing, I think, maybe the most inbound on orders, and it's where we're seeing the highest increase in prices as well.

    但同樣地,亞洲受到中東衝突的影響很大,因為他們取得的很多供應是來自中東。所以我會說那是我們看到訂單湧入最多的區域,同時也是我們看到價格漲幅最高的區域。

  • But it's not just Asia. We're seeing increased demand in lots of different markets. I mentioned them earlier, but I'd say from Q1 to Q2, that volume increase is probably more focused on Asia and where we're limiting volume because we're just getting a lot of inquiries into India. That may be the area where we're having the hardest filling orders. Not that we're not filling existing orders, but customers wanting more than we can provide.

    但不只是亞洲。我們在許多不同市場都看到需求增加。我先前提過,但我會說從第一季到第二季,那個量的增加可能更集中在亞洲;而我們限制供貨量的地方,是因為我們收到大量來自印度的詢問。那可能是我們最難滿足訂單的區域。不是說我們不履行既有訂單,而是客戶想要的量超過我們能提供的量。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • Thanks. That's helpful. And if I could follow-up on pricing, I'm just wondering with some of the contract structures you have now, do you have any lagged pricing implementation so that you've already had conversations with customers perhaps. You know pricing is going up in 3Q or 4Q because of that lag.

    謝謝,這很有幫助。如果我可以追問一下定價,我想知道以你們目前的一些合約結構來看,是否存在延遲生效的定價機制,也就是你們可能已經和客戶談過,因為這個延遲,價格會在第三季或第四季上調。

  • And I mean, is that any different than what we may have seen prior cycles? I think some of the reactions this earnings season have been investors expected kind of some faster pricing implementation. And I wonder if this dynamic is impacting this in any way.

    我的意思是,這和我們在先前週期看到的情況有任何不同嗎?我想本次財報季的一些反應是,投資人原本預期定價落實會更快一些。我想知道這個動態是否在某種程度上影響了這件事。

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great question, and you're right. So we still have margin stability agreements largely in the Americas. So when we think about the price increases that we've announced, we do have agreements that there's a bit of a lag on when those actually will be implemented, which is impacting our price increase in the second quarter and will play favorably to what we do in the third quarter.

    問得很好,你說得沒錯。我們在美洲地區仍然主要有毛利穩定協議(margin stability agreements)。因此,當我們思考已宣布的漲價時,確實有一些協議會使實際落地有一點時間差,這會影響我們第二季的漲價反映,並且會對我們第三季的表現更有利。

  • So that's exactly right, hasn't changed significantly. I would say we have less margin stability agreements than maybe we did in APAC. Majority of them are in the Americas and they're -- I can't -- you stated it exactly correct.

    所以你說得完全正確,這並沒有顯著改變。我會說我們在亞太地區的毛利穩定協議可能比以前少;大多數是在美洲,而且它們——我無法——你表述得完全正確。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

    Frank Mitsch,Fermium Research。

  • Frank Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank Mitsch - Analyst

  • As I think about last year, it was obviously a difficult year for Tronox. I look back and it was the lowest earnings level since 2016. And it does seem that things are set up a bit better in 2026. However, using the midpoint of your 2Q guide, you're starting at the first half down $68 million year-over-year, again, from a difficult overall year. I mean, how realistic is it to expect that '26 would be up over 2025?

    回想去年,對 Tronox 來說顯然是艱難的一年。我回頭看,那是自 2016 年以來最低的獲利水準。而看起來 2026 年的條件確實好一些。不過,以你們第二季指引的中位數來看,上半年年減 6,800 萬美元,是在一個整體已經很困難的年度基礎上再下滑。我的意思是,要期待 2026 年會高於 2025 年,這有多現實?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Frank. Great question. Again, I'll make reference to the planned outages we have in the absence of -- again, I'd say those are planned, those were planned for a long period of time, specifically the statutorily required ones. So if you pull out that $10 million to $15 million, that mid-range of $75 million gets to $90 million.

    謝謝你,Frank。問得很好。我再提一次我們的計畫性停工(planned outages),在缺少——再說一次,我會說那些是計畫性的,而且已規劃很長一段時間,特別是法規要求必須進行的那些。所以如果你把那 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬美元扣除,7,500 萬美元的中位數就會到 9,000 萬美元。

  • When we think about what happens in the third quarter moving into the fourth quarter, very confident that we'll start to get into triple-digit numbers. And again, pricing is going to play into that, our cost improvement program is going to play into that. John made reference that we've made progress on our costs, so we'll start selling lower cost tons in the second half of the year. Our mining projects are going to start gaining traction.

    當我們思考第三季進入第四季會發生什麼時,我們非常有信心會開始進入三位數的水準。再者,定價會對此產生影響,我們的成本改善計畫也會對此產生影響。John 提到我們在成本方面已取得進展,因此我們將在下半年開始銷售成本較低的噸數。我們的採礦專案也將開始逐步發揮成效。

  • And again, I won't keep stressing price, but the fact that prices are moving up, price moved up in the first quarter, it's moving up at the second quarter. We're well advanced in negotiations into the third quarter, and every time pricing goes up, call our capacity 800,000 tons with the two outages. It's $80 million every time it goes up [100,000 tons], and we've got a lot of run room above $100 a ton for pricing to move.

    再說一次,我不會一直強調價格,但事實是價格正在上升:第一季價格上升,第二季也在上升。我們在第三季的談判已相當深入,而且每次價格上調,若以兩次停機後的產能約 800,000 噸來看,每上調一次(以 [100,000 噸] 計),就是 8,000 萬美元;而且在每噸 100 美元以上,價格仍有很大的上行空間。

  • And that doesn't include zircon. Zircon, 220,000 tons of years of sales, and we've got a lot of run room on zircon as well. So it's not all on the back of price, but price has been something that's kind of been missing in the discussions we've had on calls for the last three or four years, and it's happening now.

    而這還不包含鋯英砂(zircon)。鋯英砂每年銷售量 220,000 噸,我們在鋯英砂的價格上也同樣有很大的上行空間。所以並不完全是靠價格推動,但價格一直是過去三、四年我們在電話會議討論中某種程度上缺席的因素,而現在它正在發生。

  • Frank Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank Mitsch - Analyst

  • Thank you. And by the way, I don't mind you at all putting a stress on price. Speaking of stress, however. Mr. Srivisal, if I think about your cash level where you ended the first quarter, it's relatively low compared to your historic. So how do you feel -- what sort of cash levels do you feel comfortable maintaining in terms of running the company?

    謝謝。順帶一提,我完全不介意你強調價格。不過說到壓力。Srivisal 先生,如果我看你們第一季結束時的現金水位,相較於歷史水準算是偏低。那你覺得——就公司營運而言,你認為維持在什麼樣的現金水位會比較安心?

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, I mean, I think we look at it from a liquidity perspective. We do have a lot of different facilities around the world and cash accounts everywhere that we can move around pretty significantly. But we said we can operate in the $75 million to $100 million of cash over the long-term, but we can move it pretty easily over the quarter.

    是的,我的意思是,我們會從流動性角度來看。我們在全球各地有許多不同的融資工具,以及遍布各地的現金帳戶,可以相當大幅度地調度資金。但我們說過,長期而言我們可以在 7,500 萬到 1 億美元的現金水位下運作,而且在季度之間我們也能相對容易地調整。

  • But we are in the $406 million and in Q1, that's pretty much what I've mentioned is more than what we feel comfortable operating in. We have operated in that in the past Q1s, past couple of years. So we feel confident about our ability to manage our cash flow and cash balances.

    但我們目前有 4.06 億美元,而在第一季,這基本上如我所提到的,已高於我們覺得舒適的營運水位。我們過去幾年的第一季也曾在這樣的水位運作過。因此,我們對於管理現金流與現金餘額的能力很有信心。

  • And as John mentioned, we do expect a pretty significant Q2 and rest of the year cash flow. Q1 is always the big use. And so we will be generating a lot of cash. As I mentioned earlier, primarily through bringing down our inventory. We took it, exert effort late last year to operate for cash. We've proven that we can turn it into cash with $75 million from inventory in Q1. And so we feel like we're in a very good position as we move forward in the year.

    而且如 John 所提到的,我們確實預期第二季以及今年剩餘期間會有相當可觀的現金流。第一季一向是現金使用量最大的季度。因此我們將產生大量現金。正如我先前提到的,主要是透過降低庫存。我們在去年底投入努力,以「為現金而營運」。我們已證明可以把它轉成現金:第一季從庫存釋放了 7,500 萬美元。因此,隨著今年往前推進,我們覺得自己處於非常有利的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Roger Spitz, Bank of America.

    Roger Spitz,美國銀行。

  • Roger Spitz - Analyst

    Roger Spitz - Analyst

  • Your 2026 working capital guide of well in excess of $100 million inflow. My question is that on a reported basis? For instance, you increased your off-balance sheet AR securitization by $45 million. Presumably, you're going to fill that up and get $45 million of inflow, but that's just financing your receivables. Is that net of that, or is that $45 million helping on your way to getting to greater than $100 million?

    你們 2026 年的營運資金指引是淨流入遠超過 1 億美元。我的問題是:這是以報表口徑(reported basis)計算嗎?例如,你們把表外應收帳款(AR)證券化增加了 4,500 萬美元。推測你們會把它用滿並取得 4,500 萬美元的流入,但那其實只是用融資方式處理應收帳款。這個指引是扣除該項之後的數字,還是說這 4,500 萬美元也算在你們達到大於 1 億美元的路徑之中?

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So we have greater than $100 million, so there's a wide range of it. When we look at it, we do include the AR securitization and working capital number. But obviously, if it's $100 million versus $200 million, it could be in around of that number.

    所以我們的確是「大於 1 億美元」,因此範圍很寬。當我們評估時,我們會把應收帳款證券化納入營運資金數字中。但顯然,如果是 1 億美元對 2 億美元,可能就會落在那個區間附近。

  • Roger Spitz - Analyst

    Roger Spitz - Analyst

  • Got it. And then in terms of sulfur prices going up so much. I understand for decent paint, you can't just swap chloride versus process versus sulfide process because of the different tint colors. But do you think your customers will push more on their formulations that are based on chloride formulations because of the price increase on sulfate? Or how much can that shift or in certain regions, people like, this is the color we like, it happens to make your sulfate, and we'll paint less because it's more expensive?

    了解。接著談到硫磺價格大幅上漲。我理解對於像樣的塗料,你不能因為色相不同就直接把氯化法(chloride process)和硫酸法(sulfate process)互換。但你認為客戶會因為硫酸法成本上升,而在配方上更傾向採用以氯化法為基礎的配方嗎?這種轉移可能有多大?或者在某些地區,人們會說:這就是我們喜歡的顏色,剛好是你們的硫酸法產品,那我們就因為更貴而少刷一點漆?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, that's a great question. And look, they're already doing that, right? So one of the reasons that people buy from Chinese or companies buy from Chinese producers because the majority of the sulfate production comes from China's because there's been a significant price gap. So when you think about the announced price increases that have happened on the sulfate side of the equation, that gap is narrowed. So it does push them to look at more chloride capacity.

    是的,這是個很好的問題。你看,他們其實已經在這麼做了,對吧?所以公司向中國生產商採購的原因之一,是因為大部分硫酸法產能來自中國,而且過去存在顯著的價差。因此當你看到硫酸法這一端宣布的漲價時,那個價差就縮小了。這確實會促使他們去看更多氯化法產能。

  • Chloride capacity is constrained as well, constrained from the standpoint that there is not enough supply to meet the demand. So we're talking about a structural shift in supply base which started at the beginning of the year where we had less supply than we had demand. This has only exacerbated the situation.

    氯化法產能同樣受限,受限的原因在於供給不足以滿足需求。我們談的是供應基礎的結構性轉變:從年初開始,我們的供給就少於需求。這只會讓情況更加惡化。

  • So yes, customers, again, the majority of our capacity is chloride. We do have less than 10% of its sulfate out of Brazil. And we have customers wanting to move to more chloride. The problem is we don't have more chloride to ship them. And I don't think we're on an island.

    所以是的,客戶——再說一次,我們的大部分產能是氯化法。我們在巴西有不到 10% 的硫酸法產能。而客戶希望轉向更多氯化法。問題是我們沒有更多氯化法產品可以出貨給他們。而且我不認為只有我們是這樣。

  • So not to say that there won't be a shift, but two things are happening. One, prices are going up. To your point, the gap that's narrowed, which gave them the incentive to buy from the Chinese producers is disappearing. It's not disappearing that much because we're moving our price up as well, but that sulfur price has moved up a lot. Those price increases that they've announced are to try to cover that cost, and I think there's going to continue to be an imbalance.

    所以並不是說不會發生轉移,但有兩件事正在發生。第一,價格正在上升。正如你所說,價差縮小,使得他們向中國生產商採購的誘因正在消失。它並沒有完全消失,因為我們也在上調價格,但硫磺價格確實上漲很多。他們宣布的那些漲價是為了試圖覆蓋那個成本,而我認為供需失衡還會持續。

  • But I think the short answer to your question is, yeah, customers are trying to do that, but there's not enough supply to do that because there's not enough supply to fill that demand.

    但我想對你問題的簡短回答是:是的,客戶正在嘗試這麼做,但供給不足以做到,因為沒有足夠的供給來滿足那個需求。

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And sorry, Roger, going back to your first question, I just wanted to clarify that even though we generally when we report we include AR securitization in our free cash flow and working capital numbers, our increase in our guide from working capital was not driven by our AR securitization activities. It's primarily inventory.

    另外,Roger,回到你第一個問題,我想澄清一下:雖然我們在對外報告時通常會把應收帳款證券化納入自由現金流與營運資金的數字中,但我們這次營運資金指引的上修並不是由應收帳款證券化活動所驅動,主要是庫存。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Roberts, Mizuho.

    John Roberts,瑞穗。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • On the mid-single-digit Q-over-Q improvement in TiO2 prices for the June quarter, how much of that is surcharge versus base prices going up? And is that mid-single-digits a blend of low single-digits in the US and mid to high single-digits outside the US?

    關於 6 月季度 TiO2 價格季對季(Q-over-Q)中個位數中段(mid-single-digit)的改善,其中有多少是附加費(surcharge),多少是基本價格(base prices)上調?另外,這個「中個位數」是否是美國低個位數、而美國以外中到高個位數的加權結果?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thanks for the question. I'm not going to give a lot of breakdown on regional pricing. It's going up everywhere.

    是的,謝謝你的問題。我不會對各區域定價做太多拆解。各地都在上漲。

  • I think I'll reiterate what I said a few minutes ago, and that is pricing is the majority of that mid-single-digit increase. There is an element of surcharges, the majority of which are sulfur-based out of Brazil. So less than a third of what we're implementing is surcharges. The majority of it is pure price increases globally.

    我想重申我幾分鐘前說的:在那個中個位數的增幅中,價格上調占了大多數。有一部分是附加費,其中大多數是巴西那邊以硫磺為基礎的附加費。因此,我們正在實施的措施中,少於三分之一是附加費;大多數是全球性的純粹價格上調。

  • And to the point that Josh made earlier, there is some margin stability agreements that will temper how much we get in the second quarter, which will come in the third quarter. So when we start thinking about Q3 pricing will likely be moving up at a step rate that's higher than what we're doing in Q2.

    而且呼應 Josh 先前提到的,有一些毛利穩定協議(margin stability agreements)會抑制我們在第二季能取得的幅度,這部分會在第三季反映出來。因此當我們開始思考第三季時,定價很可能會以比第二季更高的階梯式速度上升。

  • Pete Osterland - Analyst

    Pete Osterland - Analyst

  • And then why is zircon volume moderating a little bit here in the June quarter?

    那為什麼鋯英砂(zircon)在 6 月季度的銷量會稍微趨緩?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Because our inventories are lower than what they should be. And repositioning inventory, remember everything we produce, zircon is a bit different, right? We're on the TiO2 side, we've got plants that are located kind of where our customers are.

    因為我們的庫存低於應有水準。而重新配置庫存——記住,我們生產的所有產品,鋯英砂有點不同,對吧?在 TiO2 這邊,我們的工廠大致設在靠近客戶的地方。

  • Our zircon inventories are a bit different. They're in South Africa and Australia, and we have to shift that material. So some of the inventory that we had in the inventory warehouses has been depleted in the first quarter. Some of the consignment inventory was higher than we expected. So it's only a function having less inventory to fill the orders. It's not an order book thing.

    我們的鋯英砂庫存情況有點不同。庫存分布在南非和澳洲,我們必須調撥這些物料。因此,我們在庫存倉庫中的部分庫存在第一季已被消耗。一些寄售庫存高於我們預期。所以這只是因為可用庫存較少來滿足訂單的因素,並不是訂單簿的問題。

  • D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    D. John Srivisal - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • It's still a very strong quarter if you take a look at the tonnage, and it is more than what our average production quarterly for the year is. So it is a very strong quarter still.

    如果你看噸數的話,這仍然是一個非常強勁的季度,而且高於我們全年平均每季的產量。所以這仍然是非常強勁的一季。

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, moderate. I said slightly moderate. We're not talking about a significant step down. It's just going to be a bit lower than the fourth quarter, the first quarter, and pricing will be up.

    是的,溫和。我說的是略為溫和。我們不是在談顯著下滑。只是會比第四季、第一季稍微低一點,而價格會上升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

    Vincent Andrews,摩根士丹利。

  • Justin Pellegrino - Analyst

    Justin Pellegrino - Analyst

  • This is Justin Pellegrino on for Vincent. I have two quick questions on sulfur. First being, have you had any difficulty procuring sulfur in Brazil? And then second, in the event of a conflict resolution, how quickly do you think the Chinese production ramps back up? And do you think there would be any sort of a risk premium remaining in the pricing for sulfate?

    我是代替 Vincent 的 Justin Pellegrino。我有兩個關於硫磺的快速問題。第一,你們在巴西採購硫磺是否有任何困難?第二,如果衝突獲得解決,你認為中國的產量會多快恢復爬坡?你是否認為硫酸鹽的定價中仍會保留某種風險溢價?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. So I do believe there'll be a risk premium that's going to go up. I mean, at the end of the day, the Chinese weren't making money to begin with. It's not to say that there won't be an adjustment on sulfur pricing as sulfur goes down.

    謝謝。我確實認為風險溢價會上升。我的意思是,歸根結底,中國一開始就沒有賺錢。這並不是說當硫磺價格下跌時,硫磺定價不會有所調整。

  • I can't really tell you when the war is going to end, but what I can say is that there's going to be a longer-term impact on sulfur. What this war has done is just really shat -- I talked about a structural shift in supply of sulfur and demand for sulfur. Sulfur was up 160% from. The end of 2024 to the end of 2026, it's gone up almost -- that's almost 300% now. So it's having a meaningful impact on anybody that's making sulfate TiO2 if you're not pressing the price.

    我無法告訴你戰爭何時結束,但我能說的是,硫磺將受到較長期的影響。這場戰爭所造成的,就是把——我談到硫磺供給與硫磺需求的結構性轉變。硫磺從 2024 年底到 2026 年底上漲了 160%,現在已經上漲將近——現在幾乎是 300% 了。因此,如果你沒有把價格往上推,這對任何生產硫酸法 TiO2 的人都會造成實質影響。

  • You asked the question about our plant in Brazil; we are not having trouble getting sulfuric acid. It's all of the negotiation of the price. So when we start thinking about every time that price moves up, we have to make sure customers understand where it's moving so that we can move that price accordingly. So for us, it's not an availability issue. It's getting it.

    你問到我們在巴西的工廠;我們在取得硫酸方面沒有困難。問題在於價格談判。所以當我們開始思考每次價格上漲時,我們必須確保客戶理解價格變動的原因,這樣我們才能相應調整價格。對我們而言,這不是供應可得性的問題,而是取得它(以及價格)。

  • In China, basically, there are no more exports of sulfuric acid going out to China any longer. There's limitations on where that sulfur can be sent. And we are seeing limitations of sulfur, not just pricing in China.

    在中國,基本上已經沒有硫酸再出口到中國了。硫磺能被運往哪裡也受到限制。我們在中國看到的不只是價格問題,硫磺本身也出現供應限制。

  • How long that's going to impact? 8% of the sulfur is produced in Qatar. Qatar has been down since the war started. When is that going to start back up? When is heavier crude going to become available? So when they refine it, more sulfur is available. These are all the structural changes that over time have taken sulfur production down and demand has continued to move up.

    這會影響多久?有 8% 的硫磺是在卡達生產。自戰爭開始以來,卡達一直停擺。何時會重新啟動?較重質原油何時會變得可得?因為當他們精煉時,就會產出更多硫磺。這些都是隨時間推移使硫磺產量下降、而需求持續上升的結構性變化。

  • So my personal opinion is the war impact depends on when the war ends. There's an awareness around sulfur that I think is going to be highlighted moving forward, which will tend to drive sulfur prices and TiO2 prices higher than they would have been historically even before the war.

    所以我個人的看法是,戰爭的影響取決於戰爭何時結束。我認為市場對硫磺的關注度在未來會被凸顯,這將傾向於推動硫磺價格與 TiO2 價格高於歷史水準,即使是在戰前也會如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Pete Osterland, Truist.

    Pete Osterland,Truist。

  • Pete Osterland - Analyst

    Pete Osterland - Analyst

  • First, just across your TiO2 production footprint, are there any mismatches regionally between where you have pricing power and where the cost inflation is being most strongly felt? And how has that impacted your strategy on operating rates in the current environment?

    首先,就你們整體 TiO2 生產版圖而言,在區域上是否存在不匹配:也就是你們在哪些地區有定價能力、而成本通膨在哪些地區感受最強?在目前環境下,這如何影響你們對開工率的策略?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks for the question. So look at this particular stage, we've ramped up all of our assets. The only plant that we're continuing to ramp up, which has been running very well, as I mentioned, was our facility in Saudi Arabia, and that's adding one more line to the five that we're currently running. That's a six-line operation we'll be bringing the six-line on.

    謝謝你的問題。就目前這個階段來看,我們已經把所有資產都拉升到位。我們唯一仍在持續爬坡的工廠——如我提到的,運行得非常好——是我們在沙烏地阿拉伯的設施,這是在目前運行的五條產線之外再增加一條。我們將把第六條產線導入,形成六線運作。

  • As I mentioned, from a pricing perspective, surcharges predominantly have been around sulfur, and that's in Brazil. So we're getting pricing in every region. It was a little bit slower in some areas, as I mentioned earlier, based off one of the other questions around some of the margin stability agreements. And so we'll start to get that inflection more in the Americas region, specifically North America, as we move into the third quarter, which will only add to the additional pricing that we'll see in Q3 over Q2.

    如我所提到的,從定價角度來看,附加費主要圍繞在硫磺上,而這是在巴西。因此我們在各個地區都在取得價格提升。有些地區稍微慢一些,正如我先前提到的,這與另一個問題中提到的一些利潤穩定協議有關。因此,隨著我們進入第三季,我們將在美洲地區、特別是北美,開始看到更明顯的拐點,這也只會讓我們在 Q3 相較 Q2 所看到的額外漲價幅度更大。

  • Pete Osterland - Analyst

    Pete Osterland - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up, just given how diversified you are, I mean, are there any regions where you're seeing elevated risk of demand destruction that could impact your volumes as you implement pricing and surcharges if we stay in an inflationary environment?

    好的。很好。接著追問一下,考量你們的多元布局——如果我們仍處於通膨環境,在你們推動漲價與附加費時,是否有任何地區你們看到需求破壞風險升高,可能影響你們的出貨量?

  • John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Romano - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it's a great question. I think that's the part that's really hard to understand. I think a lot of that's going to depend on the war. I don't think TiO2 price going up is going to create demand destruction. It's been down well longer than it should have been, which has been an advantage to everybody that's buying it. So pricing going up on TiO2, I do not believe, is going to have an impact on demand destruction.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我認為這部分真的很難判斷。我想其中很大一部分將取決於戰爭。我不認為 TiO2 價格上漲會造成需求破壞。它下跌的時間遠比應有的更久,這對所有購買者而言一直是個優勢。因此,我不認為 TiO2 漲價會對需求破壞造成影響。

  • But could the war and extended engagement in the Middle East create some kind of demand destruction because there's inflation and all the other raw materials out there? But that's possible and we're continuing to monitor that and that's why we've got to be agile in how we look at our production and operating units moving forward. But that's a question that will continue to be evaluated depending upon how long the war lasts.

    但戰爭以及中東長期的衝突,是否可能因為通膨以及其他原物料因素而造成某種需求破壞?這是有可能的,我們也持續在監測。因此,我們必須在未來檢視生產與營運單位時保持靈活。但這個問題將會持續被評估,取決於戰爭會持續多久。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have no further questions. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    我們沒有進一步的問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。