Trex Company Inc (TREX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Trex Company Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Casey Kotary. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎參加 Trex 公司 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給凱西·科塔里。請繼續。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. With us on the call are Bryan Fairbanks, President Chief Executive Officer; and Brenda Lovcik, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Joining Bryan and Brenda is Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary; as well as other members of Trex management.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。與我們一起參加電話會議的有總裁執行長布萊恩費爾班克斯 (Bryan Fairbanks)；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Brenda Lovcik。與 Bryan 和 Brenda 一起加入的是高級副總裁、首席法務官兼秘書 Amy Fernandez；以及 Trex 管理層的其他成員。

The company issued a press release today after market close containing financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. This release is available on the company's website. This conference call is also being webcast and will be available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website for 30 days.

該公司今天在收盤後發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含第四季度和 2023 年全年的財務業績。新聞稿可在公司網站上取得。本次電話會議也將進行網路直播，並將在公司網站的投資者關係頁面上發布 30 天。

I will now turn the call over to Amy Fernandez. Amy?

我現在將把電話轉給艾米·費爾南德斯。艾米？

Thank you, Casey. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that statements on this call regarding the company's expected future performance and conditions constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，凱西。在開始之前，讓我提醒大家，本次電話會議中有關公司預期未來業績和狀況的聲明構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。

For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q as well as our 1933 and other 1934 Act filings with the SEC. Additionally, non-GAAP financial measures will be referenced in this call. A reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in our earnings press release at trex.com.

有關此類風險和不確定性的討論，請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的 1933 年和其他 1934 年法案文件。此外，本次電話會議也將引用非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整可以在我們在 trex.com 上發布的收益新聞稿中找到。

The company expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. With that introduction, I will turn the call over to Bryan Fairbanks.

該公司明確表示不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。介紹完畢後，我會將電話轉給布萊恩費爾班克斯 (Bryan Fairbanks)。

Thank you, Amy. Good evening, and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results, along with our outlook for 2024. The fourth quarter capped a year of solid performance with revenues coming in slightly above our guidance range. I want to thank our channel partners and the dedicated team members of the Trex Company for making these achievements possible.

謝謝你，艾米。晚上好，感謝您與我們一起討論我們的2023 年第四季度和全年業績，以及我們對2024 年的展望。第四季度的收入略高於我們的指導範圍，為一年的穩健業績畫上了句號。我要感謝我們的通路合作夥伴和 Trex 公司敬業的團隊成員，是他們讓這些成就成為可能。

Channel sell-through growth was in the mid-single digits, in line with the levels we experienced in the second and third quarters and representative of the power of the Trex product portfolio. The resilience of the Trex brand was demonstrated throughout 2023, and our return to market-leading profitability represents a solid baseline from which to achieve our long-term targets.

通路銷售成長為中個位數，與我們在第二季和第三季經歷的水平一致，代表了 Trex 產品組合的力量。 Trex 品牌的韌性在 2023 年得到了證明，我們恢復市場領先的獲利能力為實現我們的長期目標奠定了堅實的基礎。

In Q4, we unveiled a robust selection of new product offerings that expanded our portfolio within existing categories and extended our range into complementary category adjacencies. These introductions contributed to both fourth quarter and year-end results and will be a key contributor to our long-term strategic growth.

在第四季度，我們推出了一系列精選的新產品，這些產品擴大了我們現有類別的產品組合，並將我們的產品範圍擴展到互補的相鄰類別。這些介紹對第四季度和年底的業績做出了貢獻，並將成為我們長期策略成長的關鍵貢獻者。

The newest addition to our decking portfolio, Trex Transcend Lineage and Trex Signature appeal to the premium customer segment seeking the realistic aesthetics of wood with the low maintenance and eco-friendly benefits of composites. Lineage decking offering a refined finish in fresh colors coupled with proprietary heat mitigation technology, quickly gained traction in both the pro channel and within the special order category with our home center partners.

我們的地板產品組合中的最新成員 Trex Transcend Lineage 和 Trex Signature 吸引了尋求真實木材美學以及複合材料低維護和環保優勢的高端客戶群。 Lineage 甲板提供清新色彩的精緻飾面，加上專有的散熱技術，很快就在專業管道和我們的家居中心合作夥伴的特殊訂單類別中獲得了關注。

Trex's premium signature decking replicates the look of the finest tropical wood and is sold at a premium price commensurate with its groundbreaking aesthetics and performance characteristics. Following successful regional introductions in 2023, Signature launches nationally in 2024.

Trex 的優質標誌性地板複製了最優質的熱帶木材的外觀，並以與其突破性的美學和性能特徵相稱的高價出售。繼 2023 年成功在區域推出後，Signature 將於 2024 年在全國推出。

On the railing side of the business, we launched several additions to our portfolio to drive our objective of significantly increasing our railing attachment rate by offering railing choices at every price point, replicating the success of our tier decking program.

在欄桿業務方面，我們在產品組合中推出了多項新增功能，以實現透過在每個價位提供欄桿選擇來顯著提高欄桿附著率的目標，複製我們的分層甲板計劃的成功。

Trex Select T-Rail, our high-performance value-priced railing system competes favorably with popular vinyl railings and opens a new $300 million total addressable market to the company. The new Signature X-Series cable rail and X-Series Frameless Glass Rail add 2 modern streamlined specialty options to our premium railing line and will be available in the spring of this year.

Trex Select T-Rail 是我們高效能、高性價比的欄桿系統，可與流行的乙烯基欄桿競爭，並為公司開闢了一個價值 3 億美元的新目標市場。全新 Signature X 系列電纜導軌和 X 系列無框玻璃導軌為我們的優質欄桿系列增添了 2 種現代流線型專業選項，並將於今年春季上市。

Additionally, we launched our own Trex brand of fastener collection, which includes a range of solutions for every composite deck fastening need from color match, screws and plugs, specifically engineered bits, depth setters and clips, all designed to deliver a clean cohesive aesthetic while making installation easier and more efficient for contractors and DIY installers alike.

此外，我們推出了自己的Trex 品牌緊固件系列，其中包括滿足每種複合甲板緊固需求的一系列解決方案，從顏色匹配、螺絲和插頭、專門設計的鑽頭、深度設定器和夾子，所有這些都旨在提供乾淨的凝聚力美感，同時使承包商和 DIY 安裝人員的安裝更加輕鬆、高效。

This new product offering will also be available in the spring of this year. These products and other future launches will provide our channel partners a competitive advantage by delivering end-to-end solutions from one supplier for a seamless deck building experience.

該新產品也將於今年春季上市。這些產品和其他未來推出的產品將為我們的通路合作夥伴提供競爭優勢，透過由一個供應商提供端到端解決方案來實現無縫套牌建立體驗。

In addition to investments in new product development, 2023 was a year of increased spending on branding and other sales and marketing programs, which helped drive outperformance against the larger repair and remodel segment.

除了對新產品開發的投資外，2023 年在品牌推廣和其他銷售和行銷計劃方面的支出也有所增加，這有助於推動在更大的維修和改造細分市場中取得優異的業績。

Notably, our forward-looking demand metrics such as web traffic, and sample sales posted strong year-on-year gains. And throughout 2023, we worked closely with our industry-leading channel partners to efficiently allocate marketing spend and optimize inventory levels with lead times to ensure that together, we service growing consumer demand.

值得注意的是，我們的前瞻性需求指標（例如網路流量和樣品銷售）較去年同期強勁成長。在整個 2023 年，我們與業界領先的通路合作夥伴密切合作，有效分配行銷支出並優化庫存水準和交貨時間，以確保我們共同滿足不斷增長的消費者需求。

Our intense focus on product development and ensuring success for every partner throughout the channel resulted in new account conversions to the Trex brand, along with the continued expansion of our TrexPro network. We're also proud of the improved profitability that Trex achieved in 2023. Our gross margin for the year expanded by 480 basis points, returning to more normalized levels, even as utilization rates below those of the prior year. This strong showing was driven primarily by production efficiencies and fast return cost saving projects.

我們高度重視產品開發並確保整個通路中每個合作夥伴的成功，導致新的帳戶轉換為 Trex 品牌，同時我們的 TrexPro 網路不斷擴展。我們也對 Trex 在 2023 年實現的盈利能力提高感到自豪。我們今年的毛利率擴大了 480 個基點，恢復到更正常的水平，儘管利用率低於上一年。這種強勁的表現主要是由生產效率和快速回報成本節約項目所推動的。

Notably, price and deflation were not major factors. Trex is honored by the many recognitions received in 2023, which includes 3 high-profile accolades for our ongoing commitment to sustainability.

值得注意的是，價格和通貨緊縮不是主要因素。 Trex 在 2023 年獲得了多項認可，其中包括因我們對永續發展的持續承諾而獲得的 3 項備受矚目的榮譽。

In addition to the low sustainability of Vendor Partner of the Year Award, Trex was named one of the 100 best ESG companies for 2023 by Investor's Business Daily, and earned a ranking by Newsweek as one of America's most responsible companies. As the company founded on sustainable principles, environmental stewardship and corporate responsibility are embedded in the DNA of Trex. And these honors affirm that our core values resonate with customers and the national media.

除了年度供應商合作夥伴獎的可持續性較低之外，Trex 還被《投資者商業日報》評為2023 年100 家最佳ESG 公司之一，並被《新聞周刊》評為美國最負責任的公司之一。由於公司以永續發展原則為基礎，環境管理和企業責任已融入 Trex 的 DNA 中。這些榮譽肯定了我們的核心價值與客戶和國家媒體的共鳴。

Now I'd like to turn to our outlook for 2024. As shared in today's earnings release, we expect a strong year with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth. Several factors underpin these assumptions. First, we have the benefit of the Early Buy Program. By shifting from December to this year's first quarter, we expect $60 million to $80 million in incremental sales in the first half of 2024, primarily in the first quarter.

現在我想談談我們對 2024 年的展望。正如今天的財報中所分享的，我們預計這一年將實現強勁的收入和 EBITDA 成長。有幾個因素支持這些假設。首先，我們有提前購買計劃的好處。透過從 12 月轉移到今年第一季度，我們預計 2024 年上半年（主要是第一季）的銷售額增量將達到 6,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。

Second, we anticipate mid-single-digit underlying demand growth despite our expectations of the larger repair and remodel market being flat to down low single digits in '24. Our consumers are staying in their homes longer and want to increase the enjoyment of their outdoor space while adding value to their home. Trex decking and railing does just that.

其次，儘管我們預計 24 年較大的維修和改造市場將持平甚至下降到低個位數，但我們預計潛在需求將出現中個位數成長。我們的消費者在家中停留的時間越來越長，他們希望增加戶外空間的享受，同時增加房屋的價值。 Trex 甲板和欄桿就是這樣做的。

Our robust product portfolio with options for every budget provides homeowners with the most relevant choices, and thanks to our industry-leading distribution network, Trex products are available in more locations than anyone else.

我們強大的產品組合提供適合各種預算的選擇，為房主提供最相關的選擇，並且得益於我們行業領先的分銷網絡，Trex 產品的銷售地點比其他任何公司都多。

Third, in addition to improved utilization, we expect ongoing gross margin benefits from our continuous improvement cost-out programs. We have a well-established group that is responsible for developing and implementing these programs. And I'm pleased to say that the project pipeline for 2024 is filled and presently in implementation phase. Also, they are actively developing our actions for 2025 and beyond.

第三，除了提高利用率之外，我們預計我們的持續改善成本計畫將持續提高毛利率。我們有一個完善的團隊負責開發和實施這些計劃。我很高興地說，2024 年的專案管道已填滿，目前正處於實施階段。此外，他們正在積極制定我們 2025 年及以後的行動。

Finally, channel stocking behaviors are normalizing. Year-end decking inventories were down approximately 15% from the prior year lows, and that lower year-end inventory in part relates through our increased growth expectations for the first quarter of 2024. We entered '24 with a high level of confidence in our brand, our product, our channel partners and Trex's growth potential.

最後，渠道備貨行為正在正常化。年終裝飾庫存較去年低點下降了約 15%，年終庫存下降部分與我們對 2024 年第一季成長預期的提高有關。進入 24 世紀，我們對我們的業務充滿信心。品牌、我們的產品、我們的通路合作夥伴以及Trex 的成長潛力。

At this point, I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Brenda Lovcik for fourth quarter and full year financial review. Brenda?

此時，我將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Brenda Lovcik，以進行第四季度和全年財務審查。布倫達？

Thank you, Bryan, and good evening, everyone. I am pleased to review fourth quarter results, which represented a strong finish to the year.

謝謝布萊恩，大家晚上好。我很高興回顧第四季度的業績，這代表了今年的強勁收官。

Given the divestiture of Trex Commercial Products at the end of 2022 and to provide more meaningful comparison, I will compare our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial performance to the fourth quarter and full year 2022 Trex Residential results, unless otherwise stated.

鑑於Trex 商業產品將於2022 年底剝離，為了提供更有意義的比較，除非另有說明，我將把我們的2023 年第四季度和全年財務業績與2022 年第四季度和全年Trex 住宅業績進行比較。

In the fourth quarter, net sales were $196 million, 8.4% above the $181 million of net sales reported in last year's fourth quarter. This growth was driven by increased volume and the absence of the residual channel inventory destocking we experienced in the fourth quarter of 2022.

第四季淨銷售額為 1.96 億美元，比去年第四季報告的淨銷售額 1.81 億美元成長 8.4%。這一增長是由於銷量增加以及我們在 2022 年第四季度經歷的剩餘渠道庫存去庫存的推動。

Gross margin was 36.1%, flat with last year's fourth quarter and above expectations. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $42.5 million or 21.7% of net sales in the fourth quarter compared to $32 million or 18% of net sales a year ago.

毛利率為36.1%，與去年第四季持平並高於預期。第四季銷售、一般和管理費用為 4,250 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 21.7%，而去年同期為 3,200 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 18%。

As discussed in prior quarters, we have returned to more normalized SG&A spending levels as we continue to see positive returns from our branding, marketing and R&D initiatives.

正如前幾季所討論的，隨著我們繼續看到品牌、行銷和研發計劃的正面回報，我們已經恢復到更正常化的銷售、管理和行政支出水準。

In addition to the normalization of our marketing, fourth quarter SG&A was elevated due to the spending related to new product launches for 2024. Net income was $22 million in the fourth quarter or $0.20 per diluted share, compared to $24 million or $0.22 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2022. We delivered EBITDA of $41 million or 21% of net sales compared to $44 million or 24.1% of net sales in the year ago quarter.

除了我們行銷的正常化之外，由於與2024 年新產品發布相關的支出，第四季度的SG&A 有所提高。第四季度淨利潤為2200 萬美元，或稀釋後每股0.20 美元，而同期淨利潤為2,400 萬美元，或稀釋後每股0.22 美元2022 年第四季的 EBITDA 為 4,100 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 21%，而去年同期為 4,400 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 24.1%。

Moving to a brief overview of our full year results. Net sales totaled $1.095 billion in 2023 compared to $1.06 billion in 2022, which is despite moving the Early Buy Program out of Q4 2023 and into the first half of 2024, with an increase of $35 million or 3% growth over the prior year.

接下來簡要概述我們的全年業績。 2023 年的淨銷售額總計為10.95 億美元，而2022 年為10.6 億美元，儘管將早期購買計畫從2023 年第四季移至2024 年上半年，但淨銷售額仍比前一年增加了3500萬美元，即成長3%。

Gross margin expanded by 360 basis points to 41.3% from 37.7% in 2022. This year's gross margin benefited from the absence of the inventory recalibration done by our channel partners in 2022. Additionally, our cost-out initiatives and improved plant performance were important contributors to the gross margin recovery and more than offset the higher depreciation and utility costs.

毛利率從2022 年的37.7% 增加了360 個基點至41.3%。今年的毛利率得益於我們的通路夥伴在2022 年沒有進行庫存重新校準。此外，我們的成本削減計劃和工廠績效的改善也是重要的貢獻者毛利率的恢復，足以抵消較高的折舊和公用事業成本。

Selling, general and administrative expenses were $176 million in 2023 or 16% of net sales compared to $132 million or 12.4% of net sales in 2022. The year-over-year increase is driven by additional investments in branding, marketing and R&D, which continue to provide good returns.

2023 年銷售、一般及管理費用為1.76 億美元，佔淨銷售額的16%，而2022 年為1.32 億美元，佔淨銷售額的12.4%。年成長是由品牌、行銷和研發的額外投資推動的，其中繼續提供良好的回報。

Full year 2023 net income was $205 million or $1.89 per diluted share compared to $201 million or $1.80 per diluted share. We delivered full year EBITDA of $326 million, up from $311 million and EBITDA margin expanded to 29.8%, a 40 basis point improvement from the 29.4% reported in 2022.

2023 年全年淨利為 2.05 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.89 美元，淨利潤為 2.01 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.80 美元。我們的全年 EBITDA 達到 3.26 億美元，高於 3.11 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率擴大至 29.8%，比 2022 年報告的 29.4% 提高了 40 個基點。

During the 2023 fiscal year, we recognized a benefit of $3.8 million from a reduction in the Trex Residential warranty reserve related to the surface flaking issue that affected a portion of our products manufactured at the Nevada plant before 2007.

在 2023 財年，我們認識到因表面剝落問題而減少的 Trex Residential 保固準備金帶來了 380 萬美元的收益，該問題影響了我們 2007 年之前在內華達州工廠生產的部分產品。

Excluding the warranty benefit, 2023 adjusted gross margin was 41%, adjusted net income was $203 million or $1.86 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA was $323 million and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 29.5%.

不包括保固福利，2023 年調整後毛利率為 41%，調整後淨利為 2.03 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.86 美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 3.23 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 29.5%。

We generated a healthy consolidated operating cash flow of $389 million, considerably higher than the $216 million in 2022. Capital expenditures were $166 million, primarily related to the build-out of the Arkansas manufacturing facility.

我們產生了 3.89 億美元的健康綜合營運現金流，遠高於 2022 年的 2.16 億美元。資本支出為 1.66 億美元，主要與阿肯色州製造工廠的擴建有關。

During 2023, we returned $15.6 million to shareholders through the repurchase of approximately 265,000 shares of Trex outstanding common stock. Trex remains committed to a disciplined capital allocation plan which includes the repurchase of up to 10.8 million shares or approximately 10% of outstanding shares.

2023 年，我們透過回購約 265,000 股 Trex 已發行普通股，向股東返還 1,560 萬美元。 Trex 仍然致力於嚴格的資本分配計劃，其中包括回購最多 1,080 萬股或約 10% 的已發行股票。

As we turn to our outlook, we are expecting a strong year with double-digit revenue growth and further margin expansion for the Trex Company. We anticipate full year net sales to be in the range of $1.215 billion to $1.235 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 12% at the midpoint.

當我們轉向展望時，我們預計 Trex 公司將迎來強勁的一年，營收將實現兩位數成長，利潤率將進一步擴大。我們預計全年淨銷售額將在 12.15 億美元至 12.35 億美元之間，中間值將年增 12%。

Given that year-end channel inventories reached exceptionally low levels, coupled with the change in the timing of our Early Buy Program, we estimate that approximately 60% of full year revenues will occur in the first half of the year.

鑑於年底通路庫存達到極低水平，再加上我們提前購買計畫時間的變化，我們估計全年收入的約 60% 將出現在上半年。

A few other details regarding our expectations for 2024. We expect first quarter 2024 sales to be in the range of $360 million to $370 million, inclusive of the $60 million to $80 million from our Early Buy Program. Full year EBITDA margin is expected to range from 30% to 30.5%, a 75 basis point expansion from the 2023 levels at the midpoint. Full year SG&A expenses are expected to drive 20 to 30 basis points of leverage, and we are assuming an effective tax rate of approximately 25% to 26%.

有關我們對 2024 年預期的其他一些細節。我們預計 2024 年第一季的銷售額將在 3.6 億至 3.7 億美元之間，其中包括我們早期購買計劃的 6000 萬至 8000 萬美元。全年 EBITDA 利潤率預計在 30% 至 30.5% 之間，較 2023 年中點水準擴大 75 個基點。全年銷售管理及行政費用預計將推動槓桿率上升 20 至 30 個基點，我們假設有效稅率約為 25% 至 26%。

In addition, we expect interest expense to range from $4 million to $6 million, depreciation expense to range from $50 million to $53 million and 2024 full year capital expenditures are assumed at approximately $220 million as we continue the development of the Arkansas facility.

此外，隨著我們繼續開發阿肯色州工廠，我們預計利息支出將在400 萬美元至600 萬美元之間，折舊支出將在5,000 萬美元至5,300 萬美元之間，2024 年全年資本支出預計約2.2 億美元。

With that, I'll now turn it back -- the call back to Bryan for his closing remarks.

說到這裡，我現在將其轉回——回電給布萊恩做結束語。

Thank you, Brenda. 2023 performance demonstrated the strength of the Trex brand and the relevance of our products in the outdoor living segment. These attributes will continue to drive Trex to outperform the underlying repair and remodel market in the coming years and achieve our objectives of 11% to 13% annual revenue growth and 500 basis points of EBITDA expansion through 2028.

謝謝你，布倫達。 2023 年的業績證明了 Trex 品牌的實力以及我們產品在戶外生活領域的相關性。這些特性將持續推動 Trex 在未來幾年超越基礎維修和改造市場，並實現我們到 2028 年年營收成長 11% 至 13% 以及 EBITDA 擴張 500 個基點的目標。

As Brenda noted, in 2024, we will continue to invest in those areas, which have historically driven our success. We will also focus on the consumers' wants and needs to guide our road map for growth.

正如布倫達所指出的那樣，到 2024 年，我們將繼續在這些歷來推動我們成功的領域中進行投資。我們也將關註消費者的需求，以指導我們的成長路線圖。

The Trex team is forging ahead with our strategy to capture an increasing share of decking, railing and adjacent products, which together represents a $14 billion addressable market for Trex, while remaining mindful of the strengths that have gotten us where we are today.

Trex 團隊正在推進我們的策略，以獲取越來越多的裝飾、欄桿和鄰近產品份額，這些產品共同代表了 Trex 價值 140 億美元的潛在市場，同時仍然牢記使我們取得今天成就的優勢。

Brand strength, aesthetics, durability, products at every price point, the excellence of our dealers, contractors, home improvement retailers, distributors and the dedication and commitment of our Trex team members. I look forward to even greater achievements in 2024. Casey, I'll turn it back to you.

品牌實力、美觀、耐用性、各個價位的產品、經銷商、承包商、家居裝修零售商、分銷​​商的卓越表現以及 Trex 團隊成員的奉獻和承諾。我期待2024年會取得更大的成就。凱西，我會把它還給你。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

I wanted to just ask on the revenue growth assumptions for the full year. If I look at the first quarter guidance obviously includes the Early Buy and then you have some additional growth on top of that. It sort of implies that there's very little underlying growth for the remainder of the year. What are you sort of assuming in terms of the overall either R&R backdrop as we move past the first quarter? So I think the underlying kind of growth assumption is almost no growth in the second half of the year.

我只想詢問全年的收入成長假設。如果我看一下第一季的指導，顯然包括早期購買，然後除此之外還有一些額外的增長。這在某種程度上意味著今年剩餘時間基本上成長很少。當我們度過第一季時，您對整體 R&R 背景有何假設？所以我認為潛在的成長假設是下半年幾乎沒有成長。

Yes. So I think it's important to note, our underlying growth assumption for sell-through is going to be in the mid-single digits. We've talked in the past before about there not being enough inventory in the channel last year to be able to support the market when it really turns on in the April, May time frame.

是的。因此，我認為值得注意的是，我們對銷售量的基本成長假設將達到中個位數。我們過去曾討論過，去年渠道中沒有足夠的庫存，無法在 4 月、5 月時間範圍內真正開啟時支撐市場。

So in addition to getting the inventories to the right level in 2024, you're seeing the impact of that December portion of the Early Buy transferring out to 2024. So the first quarter will have much higher growth because of those couple of actions along the way. And then the rest of it will be dependent upon how the consumer behaves.

因此，除了在2024 年使庫存達到正確水平之外，您還會看到早期購買的12 月部分轉移到2024 年的影響。因此，由於沿線的這幾項行動，第一季將出現更高的增長。方式。然後剩下的部分將取決於消費者的行為。

We've got great confidence that we're hearing from the channel today that they're building to the right levels and that between Trex's inventories and our channel inventories will have what we need to support the marketplace on a timely basis.

我們非常有信心，今天從渠道聽到他們正在建設到正確的水平，並且 Trex 的庫存和我們的渠道庫存之間將擁有我們及時支持市場所需的東西。

What is the -- I mean, after the first quarter, what's the sellout assumption that you're using for the remainder of the year? Which relative to...

我的意思是，在第一季之後，您在今年剩餘時間內使用的銷售假設是什麼？哪個相對於...

On a full year basis, it's a mid-single-digit sellout. We've not provided the sell-out on a quarterly basis.

從全年來看，銷量為中個位數。我們沒有按季度提供銷售情況。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the capacity expansion that you're planning for next year and some of the CapEx, can you talk about -- is there an SG&A component of that, that falls into 2024? And what's the uptick on the expense side that you would expect to support that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，關於您計劃明年的產能擴張和一些資本支出，您能否談談 - 其中是否有 SG&A 組成部分，屬於 2024 年？您期望支持這一點的支出方面的成長是多少？

The vast majority of the spending is going to be related to Little Rock and that will be -- that will fall above the gross margin line. That $220 million guidance, as I referenced at the end of the third quarter, it's higher than what we were originally expecting because we've now elected to build our own warehouse on the facility. Our original plans were to lease that space. But after seeing where the warehouses were and the total costs were better off and putting our own capital into that. So it's driving the capital number higher for the 1 year.

絕大多數支出將與小石城有關，這將低於毛利率線。正如我在第三季末提到的，2.2 億美元的指導金額高於我們最初的預期，因為我們現在選擇在該設施上建造自己的倉庫。我們最初的計劃是租賃該空間。但在了解了倉庫的位置和總成本後，我們投入了自己的資金。因此，這推動了一年來資本數量的增加。

The next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Keith Hughes。

Yes. First question on the SG&A spend. It looks like I think you said there's going to be some deep leverage in the year. Will the deleverage be seen ratably through the year? Or it be more as we progress? Because I mean you've got some new products out there promoting.

是的。關於 SG&A 支出的第一個問題。看起來我認為你說過今年將會有一些深度的槓桿作用。全年去槓桿是否會明顯？或者隨著我們的進步，它會變得更多？因為我的意思是說你們正在推銷一些新產品。

So you'll see leverage. This is Brenda. Thank you for the question. You will see leverage throughout the year, but most of that will come closer to the -- well, in the beginning part of the year with the higher revenues that we'll be seeing coming in. But we are continuing to make sure we invest in that marketing, investing in the new products for 2024, which we're hearing a lot of excitement around.

所以你會看到槓桿作用。這是布倫達。感謝你的提問。全年你都會看到槓桿作用，但其中大部分將接近 - 嗯，在今年年初，我們將看到更高的收入。但我們將繼續確保我們投資在行銷中，投資2024 年的新產品，我們聽到了很多令人興奮的消息。

Okay. And just on gross margin for the year, can you give us any sort of feel for what that's going to look like first half versus second half? Obviously going to be stronger in the first, but a lot of production, but how does that slide path at the rest of the year?

好的。就今年的毛利率而言，您能為我們介紹一下上半年和下半年的情況嗎？顯然，第一季會更加強勁，但產量很大，但今年剩餘時間的下滑路徑如何？

You'll see stronger numbers in the first half of the year, then we expect additional opportunity in the back half of the year if the market is stronger than what we expect. As you saw in the fourth quarter, as those volumes decline, our gross margin does fall off. So we tend to see the biggest numbers during the largest revenue quarters.

你會在上半年看到更強勁的數據，然後如果市場強於我們的預期，我們預計下半年會有更多機會。正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，隨著銷量下降，我們的毛利率確實下降了。因此，我們往往會在收入最高的季度看到最大的數字。

The next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的蘇珊·馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Bryan, my first question is, you did a nice job of outlining some of these new launches that you had last year and the plans for this year as well. As you think about these products gaining traction out in the market, can you talk about the potential upside that could mean for the revenue? And how we should be thinking about the benefits of that perhaps starting to come through?

布萊恩，我的第一個問題是，您很好地概述了去年推出的一些新產品以及今年的計劃。當您想到這些產品在市場上受到關注時，您能談談對收入可能意味著的潛在上漲空間嗎？我們該如何思考這種可能開始顯現的好處？

Yes. It generally takes a couple of years for these new products to really be well seeded into the marketplace. So as we get out to May of this year, we'll be about a year into the T-Rail program, and we've got a lot of opportunity there still. Our cable railing system, glass rail system as well as the fasteners all launch in the spring of this year, so all new to the marketplace.

是的。這些新產品通常需要幾年的時間才能真正進入市場。因此，到今年 5 月，我們將進入 T-Rail 計劃大約一年，而且我們仍然有很多機會。我們的電纜欄桿系統、玻璃欄桿系統以及緊固件均於今年春季推出，因此都是新上市的。

And then, of course, Lineage, which we've launched over 1.5 years ago at this point, has really gained significant traction as we continue to launch more colors within that product line and I've heard great things from our channel and then from those that are using the product.

當然，我們在 1.5 年前推出的 Lineage 確實獲得了巨大的關注，因為我們繼續在該產品線中推出更多顏色，我從我們的渠道和然後從那些正在使用該產品的人。

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then you also mentioned one of the benefits to margins this year will be ongoing cost takeout programs that you have going on. Can you just talk a bit about what some of those efforts are? And anything just around how they will start to come through and the forward pipeline of opportunity as well?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後您還提到，今年對利潤率的好處之一將是您正在進行的持續成本削減計劃。能簡單談談其中的一些努力嗎？以及他們將如何開始實現以及未來的機會管道？

Yes. There's -- the thing I'm probably most proud of with the team is that there's no opportunity too small. There are a lot of items that are in the pipeline where we're looking at a fairly small operation and how do we make that more efficient and everybody throughout the company is interested in having these efficiency reviews done.

是的。我對團隊最感到自豪的事情可能是，沒有太小的機會。有很多項目正在醞釀中，我們正在考慮一個相當小的運營，以及如何提高其效率，整個公司的每個人都有興趣完成這些效率審查。

And when you bring those small projects together, it ends up being big dollars. Now on top of that, we also have some big programs that we're going after as well. We have a program within our poly processing, our plastic processing operation, which will allow us to clean and pelletize plastic at a higher rate than what we see across the industry and what we've developed in the past. And then we also have other opportunities that we're bringing in from outsourced vendors that will start to occur later on this year and into next year.

當你把這些小專案整合在一起時，它最終會變成大筆資金。除此之外，我們還有一些正在追求的大型專案。我們在聚合物加工、塑膠加工業務中有一個計劃，這將使我們能夠以比我們在整個行業中看到的以及我們過去開發的速度更高的速度清潔和造粒塑膠。然後，我們還從外包供應商那裡引入了其他機會，這些機會將在今年稍後和明年開始出現。

Okay. All right. And good luck with everything.

好的。好的。祝一切順利。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

下一個問題來自瑞安·默克爾和威廉·布萊爾。

My first question is on the first quarter, Bryan, the revenue is coming in a lot higher than all of us expected. And we knew about the shift of the Early Buy. Can you maybe tell us how much was destocked last year in 1Q '23? And if there's anything else that is driving the first quarter so much higher than we all expected?

我的第一個問題是關於第一季的，布萊恩，收入遠高於我們所有人的預期。我們知道早期購買的轉變。您能否告訴我們去年 23 年第一季去庫存了多少？是否有其他因素導致第一季的業績遠高於我們的預期？

So you've got $60 million to $80 million coming in from December. And the majority of that will be in the first quarter. Some of it will be pushed out to Q2. You've got extremely low inventories within the channel itself at year-end.

因此，從 12 月開始，您將獲得 6,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的收入。其中大部分將發生在第一季。其中一些將被推遲到第二季。年底時通路內的庫存極低。

And if you go back to the first quarter call from last year, I believe the numbers are threw out where I would have liked to have seen an additional $40 million to $50 million of inventory within the channel itself. So when you bring those together, that's why you're seeing such a significant number in the first quarter. And it's important that we get this material staged before the season and ready for when things turn on.

如果你回顧去年第一季的電話會議，我相信這些數字是被拋棄的，而我本來希望在通路本身看到額外的 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元的庫存。因此，當你將這些放在一起時，這就是為什麼你會在第一季看到如此大的數字。重要的是我們要在賽季開始前準備好這些材料，並為事情發生時做好準備。

Got it. And just to be clear, the first quarter revenue assumption includes mid-single-digit sell-through?

知道了。需要澄清的是，第一季的收入假設包括中個位數的銷售量？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then, yes, just my second question, what's sort of the feedback from contractors? How are their bookings looking? How are their backlogs? Just anything you can help us with there.

好的。然後，是的，我的第二個問題是，承包商的回饋是什麼？他們的預訂情況如何？他們的積壓情況如何？只要您能幫我們做任何事。

Yes. I'm still hearing confidence from the contractors. Generally, we're -- on average, you're looking to be between 5 to 6 to 7 weeks for the contractors, which is back to an average type lead time in the marketplace. Their phones are ringing. Actually, we are hearing that projects seem to be getting bigger. So that definitely supports that higher end consumer is still doing well in the marketplace, and they're looking to add on to their existing homes.

是的。我仍然聽到承包商的信心。一般來說，我們平均需要承包商 5 至 6 至 7 週的時間，這又回到了市場上的平均交貨時間。他們的電話響了。事實上，我們聽說項目似乎越來越大。因此，這絕對支持高端消費者在市場上仍然表現良好，並且他們正在尋求對現有房屋進行擴建。

Great to hear. Best portfolio luck.

很高興聽到。最好的投資組合運氣。

The next question comes from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

Good evening, everybody. I'd also kind of like to talk about the sales guidance, maybe a different way to frame it. And maybe this is the wrong way you can tell me. But if I take $70 million out of your guide and put it back into the prior year, it actually makes the year-over-year flat. I would have expected that to be around 5%, if that's the core underlying sell-through growth.

晚上好大家。我還想談談銷售指導，也許是一種不同的框架方式。也許這是錯誤的方式，你可以告訴我。但如果我從你的指南中取出 7000 萬美元，並將其放回上一年，它實際上會使同比持平。如果這是銷售成長的核心基礎的話，我原本預計這一數字將在 5% 左右。

So maybe there's just -- that's not the way to look at it?

所以也許只是——這不是看待它的方式？

No, I think when you take $70 million to $80 million out, we still have about 20% growth in the quarter. So...

不，我認為當你扣除 7,000 萬到 8,000 萬美元時，我們本季仍有約 20% 的成長。所以...

I am talking about the year.

我說的是年份。

Got it. Got it. Yes...

知道了。知道了。是的...

Yes. So that will be dependent upon where the inventories end with the channel at year-end. We do know that the channel has said this consistently. They're looking to be very efficient on their inventories. And what we decide to do with the Early Buy Program next year, we'll decide that as we get later in the year and provide more details on that.

是的。因此，這將取決於年底庫存在渠道中的結束位置。我們確實知道頻道一直這麼說。他們希望能夠非常有效率地管理庫存。我們決定明年如何實施早期購買計劃，我們將在今年稍後做出決定，並提供更多詳細資訊。

Okay. Understood. Maybe the other part of it, I was confused about the implied back half, maybe kind of similar to Rafe's question earlier, is kind of flattish versus last year's back half, which would have had the pushout of the $60 million. So adjusted for that is actually down by $60 million to $80 million year-over-year. I'm just trying to reconcile that along still with the first question.

好的。明白了。也許它的另一部分，我對隱含的後半部分感到困惑，也許有點類似於拉夫之前的問題，與去年的後半部分相比有點平淡，去年的後半部分會推出 6000 萬美元。經過調整後，實際年減了 6,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。我只是想將這一點與第一個問題結合。

We expect inventories to be higher in the channel as we end the second quarter.

我們預計第二季末該通路的庫存將會更高。

The next question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens.

下一個問題來自特雷·格魯姆斯和史蒂芬斯。

So I guess the one that I had -- you touched on earlier, and I appreciate the help with the cadence of the top line and high level, Bryan, you mentioned first half would be better margin than second half. I mean I think that's pretty clear.

所以我想我有一個 - 你之前提到過，我感謝對頂線節奏和高水平的幫助，布萊恩，你提到上半場會比下半場有更好的利潤。我的意思是我認為這很清楚。

But I mean, just given the strength in 1Q, as we're thinking about the contribution there, is there any other -- any additional color you could give us? Any other detail to help us kind of think about that, especially as it relates to the margins, just given how -- I'm sure production rates in the 1Q were going to be significantly higher than what we've seen.

但我的意思是，考慮到第一季的實力，當我們考慮那裡的貢獻時，還有其他的——你可以給我們任何額外的顏色嗎？任何其他細節可以幫助我們思考這一點，特別是與利潤率相關的細節，只要考慮到如何——我確信第一季的生產力將明顯高於我們所看到的。

Yes. Our production rate will be higher than what we saw in the first quarter of last year, somewhat higher than what we even saw in the fourth quarter of this year, but not materially higher from that perspective. And again, you've got the highest sales numbers in the first quarter and second quarter. And if you look at our numbers historically, you'll see that, that tends to correlate pretty well with higher margins and then declining in the back half of the year.

是的。我們的生產力將高於去年第一季的水平，甚至略高於今年第四季的水平，但從這個角度來看，並沒有實質提高。同樣，第一季和第二季的銷售額最高。如果你看看我們的歷史數據，你會發現，這往往與較高的利潤率密切相關，然後在今年下半年下降。

Again, looking at Trex on a quarter-by-quarter basis, different when you look at it from a full year basis. When we deliver our full year numbers, we deliver improved margins, we deliver sales growth, all of those things that come along with it. So we don't tend to manage the company for a quarter's worth of margin.

同樣，按季度查看 Trex 與從全年角度查看是不同的。當我們提供全年數據時，我們會提高利潤，實現銷售成長，所有這些都會隨之而來。因此，我們不傾向於以四分之一的利潤來管理公司。

Understood. And the color you just gave me on the production is super helpful. I guess the second one is the mid-single-digit demand that you're calling for this year. Are you seeing any or expecting any material difference in the channel -- your pro channel versus maybe the DIY consumer in that number?

明白了。你剛剛給我的製作顏色非常有幫助。我想第二個是您今年呼籲的中個位數需求。您是否看到或預期管道中存在任何實質差異 - 您的專業管道與該數字中的 DIY 消費者？

No. I expect that our mix between those 2 channels will remain similar. We saw good strength in the Pro channel in 2023. And while some of the reports within DIY and other sectors, we're not nearly as positive. We were very pleased with the performance that we saw, and we fully expect that we will continue to develop good numbers through those channels.

不會。我預計這兩個頻道之間的組合將保持相似。我們在 2023 年看到了 Pro 頻道的強勁實力。雖然 DIY 和其他領域的一些報告，但我們並沒有那麼積極。我們對所看到的表現非常滿意，並且完全期望我們將繼續透過這些管道開發良好的數位。

The next question comes from Tim Wojs with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Tim Wojs 和 Baird。

Maybe I'll ask the sales question in a different way. Where would you expect the -- I guess in your guidance, what are you assuming 2024 ends from a channel inventory perspective? I know you said '23 ended down about 15%. I mean, would you expect that to effectively be up relative to 2023 levels, inclusive of the early buy timing? And then also, it sounds like some added inventory in the channel?

也許我會以不同的方式問銷售問題。我想在您的指導中，您會從渠道庫存的角度假設 2024 年結束時會發生什麼？我知道你說過 23 年最終下跌了約 15%。我的意思是，您是否預計該價格會相對於 2023 年的水平有效上升，包括早期購買時機？另外，聽起來像是通路中增加了一些庫存？

Thank you, Tim, for the question. This is Brenda. Right now, our assumptions are the 5% sell-through and that channel inventory would remain flat at year-end. So we aren't planning to have any increases.

謝謝蒂姆提出的問題。這是布倫達。目前，我們的假設是銷售率為 5%，通路庫存到年底將保持不變。所以我們不打算增加任何費用。

Okay. Okay. Got you. And then I guess just a bigger picture question on the portfolio. I know you're about a year in on some of the new decking products. I mean where -- if you think 3 to 5 years out, what does the portfolio for Trex look like? If you would take kind of the entry-level products, maybe Select and Transcend and then kind of Lineage and Signature, I don't know if you want to bump it that way. But how do you think the portfolio kind of looks for Trex in maybe 3 to 5 years? Or I guess what's the plan?

好的。好的。明白你了。然後我想這只是投資組合的一個更大的問題。我知道您已經使用一些新的裝飾產品大約一年了。我的意思是，如果您考慮 3 到 5 年後，Trex 的投資組合會是什麼樣子？如果你想選擇入門級產品，也許是 Select 和 Transcend，然後是 Lineage 和 Signature，我不知道你是否想那樣做。但您認為 Trex 在 3 到 5 年後的投資組合會是什麼樣子？或者我猜計劃是什麼？

If you look back to the Analyst Day that we had this summer, One of the key strategies we talked about was propping the top of the marketplace and making sure that we have the appropriate premium products that as those customers are in the marketplace, they're making the Trex decision. And that's why you saw a focus on launching our Lineage product as well as Signature product along the way.

如果你回顧我們今年夏天舉行的分析師日，我們討論的關鍵策略之一就是支撐市場的頂端，並確保我們擁有適當的優質產品，當這些客戶進入市場時，他們會「正在做出Trex 決定。這就是為什麼您看到我們一直專注於推出我們的 Lineage 產品以及 Signature 產品。

But it doesn't mean that we've walked away from the wood conversion marketplace. The enhanced product line is still extremely important for us. That strategy of having basics at roughly 2x the price of lumber and then giving that option for the consumer to walk up to our enhanced natural product line at roughly 3x the price of wood that continued to be an effective strategy in 2023, and we've not seen any indications that, that won't continue to be effective as we continue with that.

但這並不代表我們已經放棄木材加工市場。增強的產品線對我們來說仍然極為重要。這種策略是，以大約2 倍木材價格提供基本產品，然後為消費者提供選擇，以大約3 倍木材價格購買我們的增強型天然產品線，這在2023 年仍然是一種有效的策略，我們已經沒有看到任何跡象表明，隨著我們繼續這樣做，這將不會繼續有效。

And we are continuing to see new opportunities for that product line as well as the rest of our decking and railing as the marketplace seize the opportunity to optimize their overall working capital by focusing on 1 or 2 brands rather than potentially 3 or 4 brands.

隨著市場抓住機會，透過專注於 1 或 2 個品牌而不是 3 或 4 個品牌來優化其整體營運資本，我們將繼續看到該產品線以及我們的其他裝飾和欄桿的新機會。

The next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

First, I'd love to understand, I think you're talking about in effect, growing with the broader market in 2024.

首先，我很想了解，我認為您實際上談論的是 2024 年與更廣泛的市場一起成長。

And just wanted to kind of understand given the fact that you have significantly expanded your capacity over the last 2 or 3 years, how does some of those additional growth strategies play into, let's say, what I would consider to be more of your typical outperformance of the decking market relative to the underlying R&R of 5% to 7%, let's say? You've obviously highlighted a lot of opportunities around either international, perhaps aligning yourselves with certain production builders. You've highlighted the railing opportunity.

只是想了解一下，鑑於您在過去 2 或 3 年中顯著擴大了產能，其中一些額外的增長策略如何發揮作用，比如說，我認為您的典型表現更好比方說，裝飾市場相對於基礎R&R的比例為5% 到7%？顯然，您已經強調了這兩個國家/地區的許多機會，也許可以與某些製作構建者保持一致。您已經強調了欄桿機會。

So just trying to kind of reconcile where some of those growth strategies, how do those fit into the '24 outlook? Or perhaps with that -- those strategies more kind of supercharge growth, let's say, for lack of a better word in '25 or '26.

因此，我只是想協調其中一些成長策略，這些策略如何適應 24 世紀的前景？或者說，也許這些策略更多地促進了成長，因為在 25 或 26 年缺乏更好的詞彙。

Well, a couple of things to unpack with that. You are seeing kind of the supercharging of our product launches as we move into 2024 at a higher level than you've ever seen with Trex in the past. But I think it's also important to note that we believe the numbers that we're providing recognize that there's still some uncertainty in the economy.

好吧，有幾件事要解開。隨著我們進入 2024 年，您會看到我們產品發布的速度比您過去在 Trex 上看到的更高。但我認為還需要注意的是，我們認為我們提供的數據認識到經濟仍然存在一些不確定性。

We expect the repair and remodel sector as a whole to be flat to down single digits versus us talking about sell-through in the mid-single digits growth. So you see that 5% to 6%, 7% type outperformance of repair and remodel.

我們預計維修和改造行業作為一個整體將持平或下降個位數，而我們談論的銷售量將呈現中等個位數成長。所以你會看到 5% 到 6%、7% 類型的修復和改造表現出色。

As the repair and remodel market stabilizes, I fully expect that we get back to that sell-through on a low double-digit type rate and getting back to those sort of numbers that Trex has well been known for over the years. So there is some conservatism in there. as we continue to navigate the uncertain economy. And I hope as the year goes on, we'll be able to further update that number, and we continue to see strength, especially in those higher-end consumers and get back to more of a normal economic environment.

隨著維修和改造市場的穩定，我完全希望我們能夠以兩位數的低銷售率恢復，並恢復到 Trex 多年來眾所周知的數字。所以裡面有一些保守主義。當我們繼續應對不確定的經濟時。我希望隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠進一步更新這個數字，我們將繼續看到力量，特別是在那些高端消費者中，並恢復到更正常的經濟環境。

No, that's great, Bryan. I appreciate that. And I guess just secondly, just to make sure I properly heard an answer earlier, regarding SG&A, you are expecting some leverage. I think a year ago, you had talked about '23 maybe originally being in a 15% to 16% range, if I remember correctly. Is that kind of the right way to think about '24 off of 2023, 16.1%? And would that be a number that you can lever as well in the next couple of years?

不，那太好了，布萊恩。我很感激。我想其次，為了確保我之前正確地聽到了關於 SG&A 的答案，您期望有一些槓桿作用。我想一年前，如果我沒記錯的話，你曾談到「23」最初可能在 15% 到 16% 的範圍內。這是思考 2023 年 24 日 16.1% 的正確方式嗎？在接下來的幾年裡，這個數字是否也是你可以利用的？

Yes, exactly. And that is the plan. So for this year, we are, again, expecting 20 to 30 basis points of leverage off of that number. And again, going forward, we will continue to lever SG&A to drive incremental EBITDA margin.

對，就是這樣。這就是計劃。因此，今年，我們再次預期槓桿率將比該數字低 20 至 30 個基點。展望未來，我們將繼續利用 SG&A 來推動 EBITDA 利潤率的成長。

The next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first one is the 2024 guide seems to imply incrementals of around 35%, 37-ish percent, curious what amount of start-up costs from Arkansas are embedded in there? And if you expect more of those to hit in 2025 versus 2024.

第一個是 2024 年指南似乎暗示增量約為 35%、37% 左右，好奇阿肯色州的啟動成本是多少？如果您預計 2025 年與 2024 年相比會出現更多此類事件。

Going into this year, we'll see minimal start-up costs at the Arkansas facility. You'll start to see more of that ramp up in 2025 as in Q1, we'll start to see the repo line come up. And then Q4 of 2025, we're expecting compounding to come up. And then in 2026, we start to see decking.

進入今年，我們將看到阿肯色州工廠的啟動成本最低。到 2025 年，您將開始看到更多的成長，就像第一季一樣，我們將開始看到回購額度的出現。然後到 2025 年第四季度，我們預計複利將會出現。然後到 2026 年，我們開始看到甲板。

So that's when you'll start to see more significant costs hit our financial statements. And at that time, we will be sure to siphon out the cost of the start-up related to Arkansas versus normal every day operating activities.

因此，那時您將開始看到我們的財務報表出現更重大的成本。到那時，我們一定會吸收與阿肯色州相關的新創企業的成本，而不是正常的日常營運活動。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess as we look at the bigger picture here and think about the mid-single-digit sell-through that you're talking about, I mean, if you had to characterize risk being skewed to the upside or to the downside there? And maybe what are the factors that could drive you either that upside or downside?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想，當我們著眼於這裡的大局並考慮您所談論的中個位數的銷售量時，我的意思是，如果您必須描述那裡的風險是向上還是向下傾斜？也許哪些因素可能會導致你的上漲或下跌？

Considering we're here on earnings call today. I think we've balanced the risks on the upside and the downside. As I mentioned, I feel as though, given what we know about the consumer that -- and it's very early in the year. We've got to see the season actually kick off, but everything that I'm hearing from the channel is they're excited about the opportunity to grow with Trex. The consumers are coming through the door, the contractors are getting their backlog filled as they go into the summertime.

考慮到我們今天在這裡參加財報電話會議。我認為我們已經平衡了上行和下行的風險。正如我所提到的，鑑於我們對消費者的了解，我的感覺是——而且現在還很早。我們必須看到這個賽季真正開始，但我從頻道聽到的一切都是他們對有機會與 Trex 一起成長感到興奮。進入夏季，消費者紛紛湧入，承包商正在填補積壓的訂單。

The next question comes from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的杜魯門帕特森。

This is Trevor Allinson on for Truman. First, just wanted to touch on inventory levels again. It sounds like by the end of the year, you guys are still expecting channel inventories to be near the historical low levels that they are now. What do you think gets the channel to start taking on some more of that inventory?

我是杜魯門的特雷弗·阿林森。首先，我想再次談談庫存水準。聽起來好像到今年年底，你們仍然預計渠道庫存將接近現在的歷史低點。您認為是什麼讓通路開始接收更多庫存？

Are you guys bring on more capacity, other players in the industry have also brought more capacity, do you think that inventory levels going forward, more intermediate term will continue to remain low? Or do you think over time, as the macro provides some more certainty that we'll get back to those normal days on-hand type levels?

你們是否帶來了更多產能，行業中的其他參與者也帶來了更多產能，您認為未來庫存水準是否會繼續保持在較低水準？或者您認為隨著時間的推移，宏觀經濟會提供更多的確定性，我們將回到正常的現有水平？

I think what's most important with what we're talking about is getting inventories to the right level as we go into the season. If you go back to the historical years of Trex, usually, inventory would be at its lowest point coming out in November, and then we would start the Early Buy Program start to build some in December and then through the first quarter of the year.

我認為我們所討論的最重要的是在進入季節時將庫存保持在正確的水平。如果你回顧 Trex 的歷史，通常情況下，庫存會在 11 月達到最低點，然後我們會啟動早期購買計劃，在 12 月開始建造一些，然後一直持續到今年第一季。

In this case, we elected to go ahead and do that Early Buy all in the first 3 months. And we'll decide how we handle 2025 as we get closer to that. But I'm not particularly concerned by those inventory decisions at the end of the year, whereas if you were to tell me, we were -- looked like we were going to have historically low inventories at the end of the first or second quarter, I would have great concern as to how the channel was managing their inventories and their responsibilities.

在這種情況下，我們選擇繼續在前 3 個月內全部提前購買。當 2025 年臨近時，我們將決定如何應對。但我並不特別擔心年底的庫存決策，如果你告訴我，我們——看起來我們在第一季末或第二季末的庫存將處於歷史低位，我非常關心通路如何管理他們的庫存和他們的責任。

I don't see that being the case. I'm very pleased with what I'm seeing from all of the partners in our channel that will have the appropriate material to be able to support the marketplace and where the year-end comes out from an inventory perspective, we'll either be able to address that by putting some in, in December or again, doing it in the first quarter.

我不認為情況是這樣。我對從我們管道中的所有合作夥伴那裡看到的情況感到非常滿意，他們將擁有適當的材料來支持市場，並且從庫存角度來看，年底的情況是，我們要么能夠通過在12 月或在第一季再次投入一些來解決這個問題。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then maybe a longer-term question. EBITDA margin target, 34%. Can you talk about where you think gross margins land within that 34% longer-term guide? And then within that, how much do you think comes from leverage on volumes and this year continuous improvement, then cost-out initiatives.

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後也許是一個更長期的問題。 EBITDA 利潤率目標為 34%。您能談談您認為毛利率在 34% 的長期指引範圍內的水平嗎？然後，您認為有多少來自銷售槓桿和今年的持續改進，然後是成本削減計劃。

Yes. I think to split it from a gross margin perspective, it's be roughly split between continuous improvement as well as capacity utilization but gross margin will have some impacts as it relates to depreciation coming on with Little Rock as well as some of the startup expenses, which Brenda mentioned that we'll be transparent on what those costs are going to be.

是的。我認為從毛利率的角度來劃分，它大致分為持續改進和產能利用率，但毛利率會產生一些影響，因為它與小石城的折舊以及一些啟動費用有關，其中布倫達提到，我們將對這些費用保持透明。

But early on, we won't have as favorable of a cost basis because the facility won't have the same kind of volume that our Virginia facility has along the way. So there will be some headwinds as that plant gets up to running its full output.

但在早期，我們不會有如此有利的成本基礎，因為該設施的產量與我們維吉尼亞工廠的產量不同。因此，當該工廠開始滿載生產時，將會遇到一些阻力。

But over the long term, we expect that plant will have our best cost bases across the company. And then we've still the opportunity to -- still the opportunity to be able to leverage SG&A over the next 5 years from where we are today on top of that 20 to 30 basis points that we've talked about for '24.

但從長遠來看，我們預計該工廠將擁有整個公司最好的成本基礎。然後，除了我們在 24 年討論的 20 到 30 個基點之外，我們仍然有機會在未來 5 年內利用我們今天的 SG&A。

Got it. Good luck going forward.

知道了。祝你未來好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給管理階層進行總結發言。

Thanks for everybody's attendance at today's earnings conference call. We look forward to speaking with many of you in the upcoming weeks. Good evening. Bye.

感謝大家參加今天的收益電話會議。我們期待在接下來的幾週內與你們中的許多人交談。晚安.再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。