Trex Company Inc (TREX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Trex Company Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please also note, today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Viktoriia Nakhla. Ma'am, please go ahead.

大家下午好，歡迎參加 Trex 公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。另請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。現在，我想請 Viktoriia Nakhla 發言。女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. With us on the call are Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad McDonald, Chief Accounting Officer; and Kara Strosnider, director of Financial Planning and Analysis. Joining Bryan, Brad and Kara is Amy Fernandez, Vice President, General Counsel; as well as other members of Trex management.

謝謝杰米，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。與我們一起參加電話會議的有總裁兼首席執行官 Bryan Fairbanks；布拉德·麥克唐納，首席會計官；財務規劃與分析總監 Kara Strosnider。與布萊恩、布拉德和卡拉一起的還有副總裁兼總法律顧問艾米·費爾南德斯 (Amy Fernandez)；以及 Trex 管理層的其他成員。

The company issued a press release today after market close containing financial results for the second quarter 2023. This release is available on the company's website. This conference call is also being webcast and will be available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website for 30 days.

該公司今天在收盤後發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含 2023 年第二季度的財務業績。該新聞稿可在該公司網站上獲取。本次電話會議還將進行網絡直播，並將在公司網站的投資者關係頁面上發布 30 天。

I would now like to turn the call over to Amy Fernandez, Amy?

我現在想把電話轉給艾米·費爾南德斯，艾米？

Thank you, Viktoriia. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that statements on this call regarding the company's expected future performance and conditions constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs as well as our 1933 and other 1934 Act filings with the SEC. Additionally, non-GAAP financial measures will be referenced in this call. A reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in our earnings press release at trex.com. The company expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

謝謝你，維多利亞。在開始之前，讓我提醒大家，本次電話會議中有關公司預期未來業績和狀況的聲明構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。有關此類風險和不確定性的討論，請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的 1933 年和其他 1934 年法案文件。此外，本次電話會議還將引用非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節可以在我們在 trex.com 上發布的收益新聞稿中找到。該公司明確表示不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。

With that introduction, I will turn the call over to Bryan Fairbanks.

介紹完畢後，我會將電話轉給布萊恩·費爾班克斯 (Bryan Fairbanks)。

Thank you, Amy. Good evening, and thank you for joining us today to discuss our second quarter 2023 financial and operating results. We're pleased to report that Trex delivered sales that were significantly above our guidance range, indicating resilient consumer demand for our products and the strength of the outdoor living category. We experienced mid-single-digit growth in channel sell-through despite a small sales decline compared to last year's record second quarter when the channel was building robust inventories.

謝謝你，艾米。晚上好，感謝您今天加入我們討論我們 2023 年第二季度的財務和運營業績。我們很高興地報告，Trex 的銷售額大大高於我們的指導範圍，這表明消費者對我們產品的需求強勁，以及戶外生活類別的實力。儘管與去年創紀錄的第二季度渠道庫存強勁相比，銷售額略有下降，但我們的渠道銷售量仍實現了中個位數增長。

In contrast, despite our strong sales in the first half of the year, we believe the channel remains conservative, holding inventory levels below the norm for this time of year. While we remain cautious in our outlook, this performance has certainly improved our confidence in the consumer spending behavior and supports our experience that in challenging economic times, consumers are more inclined to invest in areas that add value and enjoyment to their existing homes, and to trust the Trex brand to consistently add value to their outdoor living spaces. Outdoor living remains the fastest-growing category in the repair and remodel sector.

相比之下，儘管我們上半年的銷售強勁，但我們認為該渠道仍然保守，將庫存水平保持在每年這個時候的正常水平以下。雖然我們對前景保持謹慎態度，但這種表現無疑提高了我們對消費者支出行為的信心，並支持了我們的經驗，即在充滿挑戰的經濟時期，消費者更傾向於投資於為現有房屋增加價值和享受的領域，並支持我們的經驗。相信 Trex 品牌能夠持續為其戶外生活空間增值。戶外生活仍然是維修和改造領域增長最快的類別。

In support of our brand strategy, we continue to make significant investments in decking and railing products at every price point to make it easy for consumers to make the Trex decision, whether they're trading up from wood decking and railing or building the ultimate outdoor space with high-end products like Trex Transcend Lineage or Signature Decking. Across the spectrum, the benefits of low maintenance Trex composite decking and railing, coupled with the easy installation of our products offers a compelling value proposition for the Trex brand. Thanks to our leading distribution network, extensive retail presence and top-notch dealers in the pro channel, Trex is the most widely available and purchase decking brand in North America and worldwide, repeatedly earning recognition as the brand of choice from consumers and contractors alike.

為了支持我們的品牌戰略，我們繼續在各個價位的裝飾和欄杆產品上進行大量投資，以便消費者能夠輕鬆做出 Trex 決定，無論他們是升級木質裝飾和欄杆，還是建造終極戶外產品擁有Trex Transcend Lineage或Signature Decking 等高端產品的空間。在整個範圍內，低維護 Trex 複合地板和欄杆的優勢，加上我們產品的易於安裝，為 Trex 品牌提供了令人信服的價值主張。憑藉我們領先的分銷網絡、廣泛的零售業務和專業渠道中的一流經銷商，Trex 成為北美和全球範圍內最廣泛使用和購買的裝飾品牌，多次贏得消費者和承包商等的認可為首選品牌。

Our commitment to spending on branding programs and the expansion of our product portfolio are yielding strong returns as we accelerate the conversion from wood to composite decking and railing, while we're also supporting the launch of new products at both the entry and high-end parts of the market. Over the past several quarters, we've taken advantage of reduced production levels to implement a series of cost reduction and continuous improvement projects that we could not introduce while our plants were running at full capacity. Specifically, our efforts have centered primarily on driving production optimization and efficiency, line upgrades, energy efficiency and raw material processing improvements. Collectively, these initiatives resulted in a second quarter gross margin of 43.9% compared to residential gross margin of 41.7% in the '22 quarter. This 220 basis point improvement in residential margin on less than full capacity is indicative of the substantial leverage inherent in the Trex business model.

隨著我們加速從木材到復合地板和欄杆的轉變，我們對品牌計劃支出和產品組合擴展的承諾正在產生豐厚的回報，同時我們還支持推出入門級和高端新產品部分市場。在過去的幾個季度中，我們利用生產水平下降的機會實施了一系列成本降低和持續改進項目，而這些項目是我們在工廠滿負荷運行時無法實施的。具體來說，我們的努力主要集中在推動生產優化和效率、生產線升級、能源效率和原材料加工改進。總的來說，這些舉措使第二季度的毛利率達到了 43.9%，而住宅毛利率在 22 年季度為 41.7%。在未滿負荷的情況下，住宅利潤率提高了 220 個基點，這表明 Trex 業務模式固有的巨大槓桿作用。

While we pursue cost reduction and continuous improvement programs to further strengthen our profitability, we also continue to drive innovation through consistent investment in new product development. In the second quarter, we introduced Trex Select T-Rail system, a competitively priced high-performance, low-maintenance composite rail system that enables us and our channel partners to compete more aggressively at the entry level, specifically against vinyl systems. This innovative system expands our existing Trex railing portfolio and is backed by a 25-year limited residential warranty and a 10-year commercial warranty.

在我們追求降低成本和持續改進計劃以進一步增強盈利能力的同時，我們還繼續通過對新產品開發的持續投資來推動創新。在第二季度，我們推出了Trex Select T-Rail 系統，這是一種價格具有競爭力的高性能、低維護複合導軌系統，使我們和我們的渠道合作夥伴能夠在入門級領域更加積極地競爭，特別是與乙烯基系統競爭。這一創新系統擴展了我們現有的 Trex 欄杆產品組合，並提供 25 年有限住宅保修和 10 年商業保修。

Consistent with Trex's legacy of sustainability, components are made from a minimum of 40% recycled materials. We see railing as a growth opportunity that complements our decking portfolio and believe the T-Rail introduction will enable us to meaningfully increase our railing sales by expanding the addressable audience and competing price points not served before by our existing railing lineup.

與 Trex 的可持續發展傳統相一致，組件由至少 40% 的回收材料製成。我們認為欄杆是一個增長機會，可以補充我們的裝飾產品組合，並相信T-Rail 的推出將使我們能夠通過擴大目標受眾和我們現有欄杆產品線以前未提供的競爭價格點來有意義地增加我們的欄杆銷量。

Earlier this year, we launched our Signature Decking product at the top of our product spectrum, which provides all the benefits of Trex decking with unprecedented aesthetics that mirrors the look and feel of true hardwood decking. We also added 2 incremental colors to Trex Transcend Lineage decking introduced last year and quickly gaining favor with consumers in the trade.

今年早些時候，我們在產品系列中推出了 Signature Decking 產品，該產品提供了 Trex 甲板的所有優點以及前所未有的美觀，反映了真正硬木甲板的外觀和感覺。我們還在去年推出的 Trex Transcend Lineage 地板中添加了 2 種增量顏色，並迅速贏得了行業消費者的青睞。

We also redesigned our Trex deck design tool, an online deck planner, which provides contractors and consumers with comprehensive digital software for deck planning. In addition to offering 3D renderings using realistic Trex product imagery and collections, the software assist users with budgeting, drafting blueprints for permitting and creating a shopping list for all of the items needed to build a deck. These features make this product ideal for DIY-ers as well as those working with professional contractors.

我們還重新設計了 Trex 甲板設計工具，這是一個在線甲板規劃器，為承包商和消費者提供用於甲板規劃的全面數字軟件。除了使用真實的 Trex 產品圖像和集合提供 3D 渲染外，該軟件還幫助用戶制定預算、起草許可藍圖並為構建套牌所需的所有物品創建購物清單。這些功能使該產品成為 DIY 愛好者以及與專業承包商合作的人士的理想選擇。

Turning now to our capacity expansion. We continue to make progress in the modular construction of our third facility in Little Rock, Arkansas. With its favorable geographic location and proximity to essential raw materials and major transportation hubs, this facility will be our most efficient when it comes online. We expect that production from this plant will enable us to efficiently meet the long-term demand for Trex decking and railing products, as well as support other long-term growth initiatives. This facility will utilize the latest technology and innovation to minimize our carbon, waste and water footprint, which will drive continued improvement in our sustainability metrics.

現在談談我們的產能擴張。我們在阿肯色州小石城的第三個工廠的模塊化建設方面繼續取得進展。該設施地理位置優越，靠近重要原材料和主要交通樞紐，一旦投入使用，將成為我們效率最高的設施。我們預計該工廠的生產將使我們能夠有效滿足對 Trex 裝飾和欄杆產品的長期需求，並支持其他長期增長計劃。該工廠將利用最新的技術和創新來最大限度地減少我們的碳、廢物和水足跡，這將推動我們可持續發展指標的持續改進。

We recently published our fifth annual ESG report, highlighting our sustainability integration across the company and affirming our commitment to pursue responsible and sustainable growth. We are pleased to announce that in 2022, we initiated a program to divert construction waste and end-of-life Trex decking from landfills, providing full circle recycling for Trex decking. While Trex decking from our earlier stays remains in use across the country and world, we recognize the need to support future generations who may want to replace their existing composite deck with new Trex decking. This is just one way we're helping to contribute to a more sustainable future.

我們最近發布了第五份年度 ESG 報告，強調了我們整個公司的可持續發展整合，並確認了我們追求負責任和可持續增長的承諾。我們很高興地宣布，2022 年，我們啟動了一項計劃，將建築垃圾和報廢 Trex 地板從垃圾填埋場轉移，為 Trex 地板提供全循環回收。雖然我們早期使用的 Trex 甲板仍在全國和世界各地使用，但我們認識到需要支持可能希望用新的 Trex 甲板替換現有復合甲板的後代。這只是我們幫助創造更可持續的未來的一種方式。

As you know, we're in the midst of a formal search for a new CFO, in the meantime, I'm pleased to call on Brad McDonald, our Chief Accounting Officer, to provide a review of the Q2 financials. Brad?

如您所知，我們正在正式尋找新的首席財務官，與此同時，我很高興請我們的首席會計官布拉德·麥克唐納（Brad McDonald）對第二季度的財務狀況進行審查。布拉德？

Thank you, Bryan, and good evening. Similar to the previous quarter, my prepared remarks will compare our second quarter 2023 financial performance to the second quarter 2022 Trex Residential results, given the divestiture of Trex Commercial Products at the end of 2022. Net sales of $357 million in the quarter exceeded our expectations but declined from $374 million of residential net sales in last year's second quarter due to nonrecurrence of the channel inventory build that occurred during the first half of 2022. Despite reduced capacity utilization on a year-over-year basis, second quarter gross margin of 43.9% increased 220 basis points compared to residential margin of 41.7% in the prior year period, driven by production optimization and cost savings programs. When we lowered production starting in the second half of 2022, we took the opportunity to prioritize cost savings programs that quickly produce results and yielded benefits in the first half of 2023. We expect these efforts and improvements to continue.

謝謝你，布萊恩，晚上好。與上一季度類似，鑑於Trex Commercial Products 將於2022 年底剝離，我準備的發言將把我們2023 年第二季度的財務業績與2022 年第二季度的Trex Residential 業績進行比較。該季度的淨銷售額為3.57 億美元，超出了我們的預期但由於2022 年上半年渠道庫存增加不再發生，住宅淨銷售額較去年第二季度的3.74 億美元有所下降。儘管產能利用率同比下降，但第二季度毛利率為43.9%在生產優化和成本節約計劃的推動下，與去年同期 41.7% 的住宅利潤率相比，增長了 220 個基點。當我們從 2022 年下半年開始降低產量時，我們藉此機會優先考慮成本節約計劃，這些計劃將在 2023 年上半年迅速產生成果並產生效益。我們預計這些努力和改進將繼續下去。

Selling, general and administrative expenses were $52 million or 14.5% of net sales in the second quarter of 2023 compared to $37 million or 10% of Trex Residential net sales in the second quarter of 2022. The increase was primarily due to personnel-related expenses, disposal of certain equipment and expenses related to the exit of our prior corporate headquarters. On a consolidated basis, 2023 second quarter net income was $77 million or $0.71 per diluted share compared to $89 million or $0.79 per diluted share in the year ago quarter.

2023 年第二季度的銷售、一般和管理費用為5200 萬美元，占淨銷售額的14.5%，而2022 年第二季度的銷售、一般和管理費用為3700 萬美元，佔Trex Residential 淨銷售額的10%。這一增長主要是由於人員相關費用、處置與我們先前公司總部退出相關的某些設備和費用。合併後，2023 年第二季度淨利潤為 7700 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.71 美元，而去年同期淨利潤為 8900 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.79 美元。

Second quarter EBITDA was $117 million or 32.8% of net sales. From a year-to-date perspective, net sales for the first half of 2023 totaled $595 million compared to $701 million of residential net sales in the first 6 months of 2022. Net income was $118 million or $1.09 per diluted share compared to $160 million or $1.40 diluted share in the first half of 2022. On a consolidated basis, year-to-date EBITDA was $186 million, with an EBITDA margin of 31.2% compared to EBITDA of $235 million with an EBITDA margin of 32.3% in the comparable period last year.

第二季度 EBITDA 為 1.17 億美元，占淨銷售額的 32.8%。從年初至今的角度來看，2023 年上半年的淨銷售額總計為5.95 億美元，而2022 年前6 個月的住宅淨銷售額為7.01 億美元。淨利潤為1.18 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益1.09 美元，而2022 年前6 個月的淨銷售額為1.6 億美元或2022 年上半年稀釋後股份1.40 美元。在合併基礎上，年初至今EBITDA 為1.86 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為31.2% ，而同期EBITDA 為2.35 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為32.3%去年。

Second quarter operating cash flow was $223 million, as we converted significant working capital into cash from collection of accounts receivables and inventory reduction. Capital expenditures in the quarter were $43 million, primarily related to the build-out of the Arkansas facility. Supported by our operating cash flow and continued confidence in our long-term growth opportunity, we repurchased 265,000 shares of Trex stock in the second quarter for $16 million. As of the end of the quarter, 10.5 million shares remain available for repurchase under the program.

第二季度運營現金流為 2.23 億美元，因為我們通過應收賬款催收和庫存減少將大量營運資金轉化為現金。本季度的資本支出為 4300 萬美元，主要與阿肯色州工廠的擴建有關。在我們的運營現金流和對長期增長機會的持續信心的支持下，我們在第二季度以 1,600 萬美元回購了 265,000 股 Trex 股票。截至本季度末，該計劃仍有 1,050 萬股可供回購。

I will now cover updates to our market guidance. Our first half results and greater visibility have put us in a position to provide full year revenue guidance. While our confidence in consumer buying trends is improving, we remain cautious. For 2023, we expect revenues of $1.04 billion to $1.06 billion that reflect projected sell-through as we anticipate year-end channel inventories to be below 2022 levels. Third quarter revenues are estimated to be in the range of $280 million to $290 million, with fourth quarter results reflecting both lower seasonal demand and channel inventory drawdowns. Also, we are pleased to increase guidance for our full year EBITDA margin to a range of 28% to 29%, a 200 basis point increase when comparing the new guidance midpoint to the previous guidance midpoint. This guidance includes our expectation that SG&A will be at the higher end of the range of 15% to 16% of net sales.

我現在將介紹我們市場指南的更新。我們上半年的業績和更大的知名度使我們能夠提供全年收入指導。儘管我們對消費者購買趨勢的信心正在改善，但我們仍保持謹慎態度。對於 2023 年，我們預計收入為 10.4 億至 10.6 億美元，這反映了預計的銷售量，因為我們預計年底渠道庫存將低於 2022 年的水平。第三季度收入預計在 2.8 億美元至 2.9 億美元之間，第四季度業績反映出季節性需求下降和渠道庫存下降。此外，我們很高興將全年 EBITDA 利潤率指引提高至 28% 至 29%，與之前的指引中點相比，新指引中點增加了 200 個基點。該指引包括我們預計 SG&A 將占淨銷售額 15% 至 16% 的較高值。

Capital spending is estimated at $145 million to $155 million, an increase due to timing of cash flows related to the Arkansas build-out. Our interest expense guidance is revised to $5 million to $6 million for the year, while depreciation and amortization and our tax rate guidance remains unchanged at $45 million to $47 million and 25% to 26%, respectively.

資本支出預計為 1.45 億至 1.55 億美元，這一增加是由於與阿肯色州擴建相關的現金流時間安排所致。我們今年的利息支出指導修訂為 500 萬至 600 萬美元，而折舊和攤銷以及稅率指導保持不變，分別為 4500 萬至 4700 萬美元和 25% 至 26%。

With that, I'll now turn the call back to Bryan.

這樣，我現在將電話轉回給布萊恩。

Thank you, Brad. Our industry-leading brand, expanded portfolio of products that appeal to a broad range of consumers and top distribution and sales channel network are essential competitive advantages for Trex that position us to capture the substantial long-term growth opportunities ahead. I appreciate the hard work and dedication of our employees and partners who have contributed tremendously to our company's success. Operator, please open the call to questions.

謝謝你，布拉德。我們行業領先的品牌、吸引廣泛消費者的擴大產品組合以及頂級分銷和銷售渠道網絡是 Trex 的重要競爭優勢，使我們能夠抓住未來巨大的長期增長機會。我感謝我們的員工和合作夥伴的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，他們為我們公司的成功做出了巨大貢獻。接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Keith Hughes from Truist.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 Truist 的 Keith Hughes。

I guess the question on the implied guide for the fourth quarter. That's a pretty big reduction. I understand it's seasonally weaker, but that's a good bit weaker than what we historically see in past years. Given that sell-through has remained positive. Do you anticipate the channel taking down that much inventory at the end of the year? Is that what's driving it down so much?

我猜想是關於第四季度隱含指南的問題。這是一個相當大的減少。我知道它是季節性疲軟的，但這比我們過去幾年曆史上看到的要弱一些。鑑於銷量仍然保持積極。您預計渠道會在年底削減那麼多庫存嗎？這就是它下降如此之多的原因嗎？

Yes, Keith, that's exactly what's driving it down. As you'll recall, the end of the first quarter and into the first -- end of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter are inventory built. And the timing of that inventory build can change from year to year. So we're expecting with the conservatism in the channel, with higher interest rates that the channel will end their inventories below where they were in 2022, and that's the difference. Now that's just purely timing. That difference will come back to us in the first quarter and first half of next year.

是的，基思，這正是導致它下降的原因。正如您所記得的，第一季度末和第四季度末以及第一季度都是庫存建立的。庫存建設的時間每年都會發生變化。因此，我們預計，隨著該渠道的保守主義和更高的利率，該渠道的庫存最終將低於 2022 年的水平，這就是差異。現在這只是純粹的時機。這種差異將在明年第一季度和上半年再次出現。

Okay. Are you hearing from your channel partners that this is the stance they're taking? Are you just sort of making an assumption based on trends?

好的。您是否從您的渠道合作夥伴那裡聽說他們正在採取這種立場？您只是根據趨勢做出假設嗎？

We are hearing from our channel partners. They will continue to be conservative on inventory, especially at the pro dealer level, a little bit less so from a distribution perspective, but we do expect that they'll take that inventory on a heavier basis into the first quarter.

我們正在聽取渠道合作夥伴的意見。他們將繼續對庫存持保守態度，尤其是在專業經銷商層面，從分銷角度來看，保守程度會稍低一些，但我們確實預計他們將在第一季度增加庫存。

Okay. And one final question on revenue in the quarter. Can you give us an idea how much of it was price mix, how much volume in this one?

好的。最後一個問題是關於本季度的收入。您能否告訴我們其中有多少是價格組合，有多少是銷量？

There's very little price involved during the first half of this year, maybe 1% of price on average through the first half.

今年上半年涉及的價格很少，可能是上半年平均價格的 1%。

Our next question comes from Tim Wojs from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的蒂姆·沃伊斯 (Tim Wojs)。

Maybe just to start on the sell-through. If you can maybe kind of parse out what is I guess embedded in the back half guidance around the sell-through?

也許只是為了開始銷售。如果你能解析一下我猜後半部分關於銷售的指導中嵌入了什麼？

Yes. For the back half, we do expect to have a continued strong third quarter. Historically, third quarter is sequentially lower than second quarter. But as we look at the full year type numbers, I'm expecting roughly flattish on a sell-through basis with prior year. And as I just mentioned with the prior question, that will exclude any normal inventory build that we would have during the December month.

是的。對於下半年，我們確實預計第三季度將繼續強勁。從歷史上看，第三季度的環比低於第二季度。但當我們查看全年類型數字時，我預計銷售量與上一年大致持平。正如我剛剛在上一個問題中提到的，這將排除我們在 12 月份期間建立的任何正常庫存。

Okay. So if you're kind of up a little bit from a sell-through basis in the first half, maybe just assuming things are potentially just a touch weaker in the back half on sell-through is the way to think about it?

好的。因此，如果你在上半年的銷售基礎上略有上升，也許只是假設下半年的銷售可能會稍弱一些，這就是思考的方式？

Maybe a touch weaker. If we look at the first quarter, we were down mid-single. Second quarter, we were up mid-single, so roughly flat on a year-to-date basis. And right now, given what we see with the consumer, I don't see much changing with that over the next 180 days.

也許觸感較弱。如果我們看看第一季度，我們的成績處於中單。第二季度，我們的單季度業績上升，因此與年初至今大致持平。目前，考慮到我們對消費者的觀察，我認為未來 180 天內不會有太大變化。

Very good. And then just on the mix side, have you seen any sort of kind of mix changes within the portfolio, maybe trading down, trading up? I mean how do you think the consumer is kind of reacting to just kind of overall inflation? And just has that kind of led to any sort of kind of mix implications with your portfolio?

非常好。然後就混合方面而言，您是否看到投資組合中出現任何類型的混合變化，可能是向下交易，也可能是向上交易？我的意思是，您認為消費者對整體通脹有何反應？這是否會對您的投資組合產生某種混合影響？

We have not seen any significant mix implications. As you're aware, we've launched both the Signature and Lineage deck boards at the top end of our spectrum to make sure that those customers who are looking for those high-end products are driven by the design and capabilities of those products. So no, no issues from a mix perspective.

我們還沒有看到任何重大的混合影響。如您所知，我們推出了高端的 Signature 和 Lineage 甲板板，以確保那些正在尋找這些高端產品的客戶受到這些產品的設計和功能的驅動。所以不，從混合角度來看沒有問題。

Our next question comes from John Lovallo from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

If we think about the gross margin in the quarter versus your expectations, can you kind of help us kind of bucket the benefits from maybe volume leverage, cost actions, materials, things of that nature, please?

如果我們考慮本季度的毛利率與您的預期相比，您能否幫助我們從數量槓桿、成本行動、材料等類似性質的事物中獲得收益？

Yes. So we've talked a little bit about deflation in the past as we are primarily focused on recycled raw materials. It doesn't move like market commodities due of virgin resin. So there was just a small amount of deflation within the quarter itself. But by far, the largest driver of it is the continuous improvement projects and teams that we have together and the building momentum of that flywheel as we started to pull down our production in the back half of last year, we were really able to focus more of our engineering and expertise on that cost reduction side. We've stabilized the business at this point at running the volume we're at, at this point. We're able to drive meaningful improvements through the system.

是的。因此，我們過去討論過一些通縮問題，因為我們主要關注回收原材料。由於是原生樹脂，它不像市場商品那樣移動。因此，本季度內僅出現了少量通貨緊縮。但到目前為止，最大的推動力是我們共同的持續改進項目和團隊，以及去年下半年我們開始減少產量時飛輪的建設勢頭，我們確實能夠更加專注我們在降低成本方面的工程和專業知識。我們目前已經穩定了業務，達到了目前的產量。我們能夠通過該系統推動有意義的改進。

Got it. Okay. And then on SG&A, to hit the high end of the 15% to 16%, it would imply something like 17% on average in the second half. Looks a little bit elevated on a dollar basis. I guess the question is, I mean, is this really driven by continued brand spend moving into the back half of the year?

知道了。好的。然後，在 SG&A 方面，要達到 15% 至 16% 的高端，這意味著下半年的平均增長率約為 17%。以美元計算，看起來有點高。我想問題是，這真的是由下半年持續的品牌支出推動的嗎？

Yes, you will see a significant increase compared to last year where we pulled back significantly on the brand spend in Q3 and Q4. And we're seeing the brand spend is working. It's bringing that consumer through to the channel to buy Trex products.

是的，您會看到與去年相比顯著增加，去年我們在第三季度和第四季度大幅縮減了品牌支出。我們看到品牌支出正在發揮作用。它引導消費者通過該渠道購買 Trex 產品。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

（操作員指令）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

Bryan, just following up on the kind of fourth quarter comment. Can you just help us kind of understand is that incremental destocking the rest of the year? Or is that just kind of what's already happened year-to-date in the channel? In other words, do you expect sell-in to lag sell-through in the fourth quarter of the year?

布萊恩，只是跟進第四季度的評論。您能否幫助我們了解今年剩餘時間的增量去庫存情況？或者這只是今年迄今為止在頻道中已經發生的事情？換句話說，您預計今年第四季度的銷售量會落後於銷售量嗎？

So last year, we did have some restocking at the end of the year. We were successful in getting to the channel inventory targets, and we started our early buy program in December and ran through the end of March. This year as we look at where interest rates are, the desire for the channel to hold inventories later in the cycle as possible, we will not have a program to the same degree that we did in the prior year. So I wouldn't really call it incremental destocking. It's really just a timing of when that inventory is moving into the channel.

所以去年，我們確實在年底進行了一些補貨。我們成功地實現了渠道庫存目標，並於 12 月開始了早期購買計劃，並一直持續到 3 月底。今年，當我們考慮利率水平以及渠道在周期後期盡可能持有庫存的願望時，我們將不會制定與去年相同程度的計劃。所以我不會真正稱之為增量去庫存。這實際上只是庫存進入渠道的時間。

Okay. Very helpful. And then just following up on the earlier comments on SG&A, just you're taking up the percent on a higher sales number. How do we just think about that kind of longer term and going into next year?

好的。很有幫助。然後，根據之前對 SG&A 的評論，您將佔據更高銷售數字的百分比。我們如何考慮這種更長期的情況並進入明年？

There's still leverage available to us within SG&A as we grow as an organization. And so that's something as part of the value proposition with Trex as we grow that top line, we can leverage the SG&A line. But we are seeing the branding working and pulling people through. And in this economic environment, we don't know what we're going to see first half of next year. We'll continue to look at the things that are working to drive people to our channel partners to buy Trex products.

隨著我們作為一個組織的成長，SG&A 內部仍然有可用的槓桿。因此，這是 Trex 價值主張的一部分，隨著我們收入的增長，我們可以利用 SG&A 線。但我們看到品牌正在發揮作用並幫助人們渡過難關。在這種經濟環境下，我們不知道明年上半年會發生什麼。我們將繼續研究如何促使人們到我們的渠道合作夥伴購買 Trex 產品。

Our next question is from Alex Rygiel from B. Riley FBR.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Alex Rygiel。

Nice quarter, gentlemen. Could you quantify the onetime items in the second quarter within the SG&A line?

先生們，美好的季度。您能否量化第二季度 SG&A 線中的一次性項目？

They were minimal. So there were some moving out from our old headquarters as well as some asset write-offs in total. It was about...

他們是最小的。因此，我們的舊總部有一些人員搬出，並且總共有一些資產沖銷。它是關於...

$1.5 million.

150 萬美元。

Yes. $1.5 million between the two.

是的。兩者合計 150 萬美元。

Excellent. And then is it possible to estimate the annual savings associated with your other cost reduction efforts or process improvement initiatives?

出色的。那麼是否可以估算與您的其他成本削減工作或流程改進舉措相關的年度節省費用？

We have not put an exact number on that. I think it's fair to say that as a management team we're highly focused on gross margin and EBITDA margin. We're looking for continuous improvement in everything that we do. As I mentioned, the flywheel really has kicked in during the second quarter, and we'll continue to see that. And some of that will be offset by lower volumes as we move through the rest of the year is seasonally lower revenue along the way, but it's something that we'll continue to focus on. A sizable part of that increase came from those improvement actions.

我們還沒有給出確切的數字。我認為可以公平地說，作為一個管理團隊，我們高度關注毛利率和 EBITDA 利潤率。我們致力於不斷改進我們所做的一切。正如我提到的，飛輪確實在第二季度開始發揮作用，我們將繼續看到這一點。隨著今年剩餘時間的季節性收入下降，銷量下降將抵消其中一些影響，但這是我們將繼續關注的問題。這一增長的很大一部分來自於這些改進行動。

Our next question comes from Ryan Merkel from William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的瑞安·默克爾。

Congrats on the quarter. I wanted to also follow up on the fourth quarter. Can you just quantify the drawdown on inventory? And then is that something that you'll see in the first quarter? You mentioned it was just delayed.

恭喜本季度。我還想跟進第四季度的情況。您能量化庫存的減少嗎？那麼你會在第一季度看到這種情況嗎？你提到它只是被推遲了。

Yes. I estimate that number between $60 million and $80 million. And yes, I would expect to see that move into the first quarter. Now it's possible depending upon the desires of the channel that some of that may be in the fourth quarter still. But right now, the expectation is that inventory build portion moves out to the first quarter.

是的。我估計這個數字在 6000 萬至 8000 萬美元之間。是的，我希望看到這種情況進入第一季度。現在，根據渠道的意願，其中一些可能仍會在第四季度進行。但目前，預計庫存建設部分將轉移到第一季度。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then I had a question on second half gross margin. It looks like guidance implies a bit of a step down. Can you just unpack why it's dipping in the second half. I realize revenues are a little bit less, but is there anything else going on?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我有一個關於下半年毛利率的問題。看起來指導意味著有點下降。你能解釋一下為什麼下半年會下降嗎？我意識到收入有點減少，但還有其他情況嗎？

No, there's really nothing else that would be going on that would drive that. The revenue drives down. We still do have the fixed cost within the operation, the maintenance activities that we take, indirect labor, those sort of things that don't all go into inventory. So we do see a step down. And I'll remind everybody on the call, the best way to look at Trex is on an annualized basis for gross margin. There will be variances from quarter-to-quarter depending upon our sales volume as well as how much we're running through our facilities. And we don't really focus on it as much on a pure quarterly basis but what are we driving on a full year basis for our shareholders.

不，確實沒有其他事情可以推動這一點。收入下降。我們仍然有運營中的固定成本、我們採取的維護活動、間接勞動力等不會全部進入庫存的東西。所以我們確實看到了下降。我會提醒參加電話會議的每個人，了解 Trex 的最佳方式是按年化計算毛利率。每個季度都會有差異，具體取決於我們的銷量以及我們設施的運行量。我們並沒有真正關注純粹的季度基礎，而是我們在全年為股東推動什麼。

Our next question comes from Stanley Elliott from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stanley Elliott。

Sticking on the margin side, can you talk maybe how should we think about the margin split between 3Q and 4Q with the moving parts in the revenue and then also kind of the voluntary destock, it sounds like?

堅持利潤方面，您能否談談我們應該如何考慮第三季度和第四季度之間的利潤分配，以及收入中的移動部分，然後還有自願去庫存，聽起來像？

Yes. So I think if you look at -- there'll be a fairly sizable difference because of the difference in revenue between those. When you look at the third quarter you're probably looking at a step down between 3 to let's call it, 300 to 350 basis points. And then the difference would fall out in the fourth quarter.

是的。所以我認為，如果你看一下——由於這些公司之間的收入差異，將會存在相當大的差異。當你觀察第三季度時，你可能會看到 3 個基點之間的下降，我們稱之為 300 到 350 個基點。然後差異將在第四季度消失。

Our next question comes from Joe Ahlersmeyer from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

If I look at your balance sheet at the end of 2022 when you had the destock and you were running the plants at about $1 billion run rate, you were building finished goods inventory. You carried that into the first quarter. And then it looks like with the upside to the second quarter sales, you sold out of inventory kind of a $40 million, $45 million sequential change lower in finished good inventory. Just curious with the assumptions you're making in the back half, and I hear you on maybe $60 million to $80 million is pushed from 4Q to 1Q. But what are you planning to do with respect to finished good inventories? Is that something you're willing to do again this year, take that on and carry that just respect with respect to the [conservatism] in the channel?

如果我看看 2022 年底你們的資產負債表，當時你們進行了去庫存，並且以大約 10 億美元的運行速度運行工廠，那麼你們正在建立成品庫存。你把它帶到了第一季度。然後，隨著第二季度銷售的上升，您的庫存已售罄，成品庫存環比下降了 4000 萬美元，環比下降了 4500 萬美元。只是對您在後半部分所做的假設感到好奇，我聽說您可能將 6000 萬至 8000 萬美元從第四季度推至第一季度。但是您打算如何處理成品庫存呢？今年你願意再次這樣做嗎？繼續做下去，並對頻道中的[保守主義]表示尊重？

Yes, we're absolutely willing to build into the inventory to support the channel, knowing the conservatism is out there. I think we've got a really good view of the consumer. And we'll have, of course, a better view of the new year as we get closer to the end of the year. I don't see us building to the same level that we were last year. But end of the year does tend to be the highest inventory level historically as we build into early buy.

是的，我們絕對願意建立庫存來支持該渠道，因為我們知道保守主義的存在。我認為我們對消費者有很好的了解。當然，隨著年底的臨近，我們會對新的一年有更好的看法。我認為我們沒有達到去年的水平。但隨著我們提前購買，年底的庫存水平往往會達到歷史最高水平。

And so thinking about how that manifests in margin in the first and second quarter, along with some of the deflation and the improvements you've made to the production processes, we should assume, I suppose, that the favorability and profitability would get hung up on the balance sheet (technical difficulty) second half margin guidance, correct?

因此，考慮到第一季度和第二季度的利潤率如何體現，以及一些通貨緊縮和對生產流程所做的改進，我想我們應該假設，好感度和盈利能力將會被掛起關於資產負債表（技術難度）下半年保證金指引，對嗎？

We haven't provided any guidance on that. I guess it would depend upon how much of that inventory gets used and in what quarter.

我們尚未就此提供任何指導。我想這將取決於庫存的使用量以及在哪個季度使用。

Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的邁克爾·雷豪特。

First, I just wanted to revisit the upside on the second quarter sales, which is obviously well above guidance. If you could kind of parse out the drivers of that upside and also comment on sell-through versus sell-in, how much of the strength was due to better-than-expected sell-through?

首先，我只是想重新審視第二季度銷售的上行空間，這顯然遠高於預期。如果你能分析出這種上漲的驅動因素，並對賣出與賣出進行評論，那麼有多少力量是由於好於預期的賣出而產生的？

I would say all of the strength was due to better expected sell-through as we moved into the quarter. And as the quarter moved its way through that sell-through increased. And as we look at the month of July, it's continuing at an elevated level. But it's fairly normal in a seasonal business for those peak summer months to be the strongest sell-through periods for us. But I would say the strength of the consumer, their desire to continue investing in outdoor spaces and remodeling projects is holding up a little bit better than what we had expected, and we sure hope that continues.

我想說，所有的強勁都是由於我們進入本季度時預期的銷售情況更好。隨著本季度的進展，銷量有所增加。當我們觀察 7 月份時，它繼續保持在較高水平。但在季節性業務中，夏季高峰期對我們來說是銷售最強勁的時期，這是相當正常的。但我想說的是，消費者的力量以及他們繼續投資戶外空間和改造項目的願望比我們的預期要好一些，我們當然希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

I appreciate that, Bryan. So I guess does that mean that embedded in your back half guidance, you're still expecting sell-through to be positive? Or I know you said flat, I guess, for the third quarter. Is that any -- does that reflect any type of deceleration?

我很感激，布萊恩。所以我想這是否意味著，在你的後半指導中，你仍然期望銷售量為正？或者我知道你說第三季度持平。這是否反映了任何類型的減速？

We're expecting on a full year basis to be roughly flat.

我們預計全年基本持平。

Great. And then just secondly on the gross margins, you had some upside there as well, and you cited a lot of the continuous improvement projects that are yielding benefits, yielding some fruit. I think earlier, you had talked about, if you think about the gross margins that you achieved from like 2016 to 2019, up 42%, you had said that you expect given the lower level of capacity utilization that you have today on a normal basis, you might be below that. Is that still how you feel, given some of the upside perhaps that you've seen in the second quarter in terms of the continuous improvement initiatives. Has that changed at all relative to your prior comments?

偉大的。其次，在毛利率方面，您也有一些上升空間，您引用了許多正在產生效益、取得了一些成果的持續改進項目。我想早些時候，您曾談到，如果您考慮一下您從2016 年到2019 年實現的毛利率，增長了42%，您曾說過，考慮到目前正常情況下產能利用率較低，您預計會達到這樣的水平。 ，你可能低於這個水平。考慮到您在第二季度在持續改進計劃方面可能看到的一些好處，您是否仍然有這種感覺？相對於您之前的評論，情況有什麼變化嗎？

I think there's a lot of opportunity for us as we continue to go after cost within the organization. Now how that manifest itself over the long term for gross margin over any specific quarter, there's a lot of other business decisions that are made as well and business opportunities. So overall, I would expect that you will continue to see us driving for improved gross margins here. But we also know there's changes to businesses each year and what's happening with the economy and what our customers need from Trex.

我認為，當我們繼續追求組織內的成本時，我們有很多機會。現在，從任何特定季度的長期毛利率來看，這如何體現出來，還做出了許多其他業務決策和商機。因此，總的來說，我預計您將繼續看到我們努力提高毛利率。但我們也知道每年企業都會發生變化，經濟正在發生什麼變化，以及我們的客戶對 Trex 的需求。

Our next question comes from Jeffrey Stevenson from Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Jeffrey Stevenson。

Congrats on the strong quarter. Last earnings call, Bryan, you mentioned that dealer and distributor partners were conservative about sell-through demand expectations this year, given they're reduced early buy. I wondered if the channel has become incrementally more optimistic after the strong second quarter demand or whether it's relatively stable from kind of where things were at that point?

祝賀季度表現強勁。布萊恩，在上次財報電話會議上，您提到經銷商和分銷商合作夥伴對今年的銷售需求預期持保守態度，因為他們減少了早期購買。我想知道在第二季度的強勁需求之後，該渠道是否變得越來越樂觀，或者是否與當時的情況相比相對穩定？

I think it's fair to say the channel has become more optimistic than where we were. I believe in the last earnings call, I mentioned that I would have been happy to see an additional $30 million to $40 million of inventory in the channel heading into the season. Obviously, that wasn't there. You see that, that came off of our balance sheet to be able to support the marketplace. But yes, our channel partners are definitely feeling the consumer being stronger and the marketing actions that we continue to pursue quite heavily is working in bringing those customers in the door.

我認為可以公平地說，該頻道已經變得比我們之前更加樂觀。我相信在上次財報電話會議中，我提到我很高興看到該渠道在進入本季度時增加 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元的庫存。顯然，那不存在。你看，我們的資產負債表上的支出是為了支持市場。但是，是的，我們的渠道合作夥伴確實感受到了消費者的強大，而我們繼續大力推行的營銷行動正在努力吸引這些客戶。

Great. No, that's helpful. And then just wondered if you could talk more about the demand trends you've seen in the retail channel. There was some concerns of a potential slowdown after home center [slightly] a deceleration in large ticket R&R last quarter. I wondered if you saw any sequential change in channel demand.

偉大的。不，這很有幫助。然後想知道您是否可以更多地談談您在零售渠道中看到的需求趨勢。上季度主場中心大票 R&R 略有放緩後，有人擔心經濟可能會放緩。我想知道您是否看到渠道需求有任何連續變化。

Through the pandemic, the home centers grew more quickly because they were available to be able to sell. We're maintaining those gains that we're seeing in the home centers, and continuing to do very well from a special order perspective. So both what's selling on the shelf as well as what they're ordering on a special order basis are at good levels.

在大流行期間，家居中心增長得更快，因為它們可以出售。我們正在保持我們在家庭中心看到的成果，並從特殊訂單的角度繼續做得很好。因此，貨架上銷售的產品以及他們在特殊訂單基礎上訂購的產品都處於良好水平。

And our next question comes from Phil Ng from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。

Congrats on a very strong quarter. Bryan, I guess, the destock, the channel that -- in the channel that you're calling out, is that all happening in the fourth quarter? Because it sounds like sell-out strengthened through July and then implicit in your sales guidance, the EBITDA guidance for the full year, does that assume you're curtailing your inventory to a certain degree in the fourth quarter like ahead of where sell-out is expected to track for the year?

祝賀一個非常強勁的季度。布萊恩，我想，去庫存、渠道——在你所說的渠道中，這一切都發生在第四季度嗎？因為這聽起來像是7 月份的銷售情況有所加強，然後隱含在您的銷售指導中，即全年的EBITDA 指導中，這是否假設您在第四季度在一定程度上削減了庫存，就像在銷售之前那樣預計全年跟踪情況如何？

No. We'll be putting the inventory on our balance sheet. It won't -- just won't be turning into revenue. So we'll be building it, recognizing that it's moving into the new year we'll need that inventory.

不會。我們會將庫存計入我們的資產負債表中。它不會——只是不會轉化為收入。因此，我們將構建它，認識到它即將進入新的一年，我們將需要該庫存。

Okay. That's helpful. And then from a CapEx standpoint, it sounds like CapEx is going to come in closer to the higher end. Some of that timing. Any color on how to think about next year? Is there a pull-forward dynamic of sorts?

好的。這很有幫助。然後從資本支出的角度來看，聽起來資本支出將更接近高端。其中一些時機。關於如何思考明年有什麼顏色嗎？是否存在某種拉動動力？

Now there'll be about a $10 million difference. We haven't provided a number. But I think in the past, we've said that we thought next year would be similar to what we saw this year from a total CapEx perspective.

現在會有大約 1000 萬美元的差異。我們還沒有提供號碼。但我認為過去我們曾說過，從總資本支出的角度來看，我們認為明年的情況將與今年類似。

Okay. So that's still a good way to think about it then?

好的。那麼這仍然是一個很好的思考方式嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Adam Baumgarten from Zelman.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman 的 Adam Baumgarten。

I was just wondering, is the fact that there's plenty of industry capacity now for the first time in years also playing a role in how the steers order maybe closer to when they need the product and stocking up like they did in the past?

我只是想知道，事實上，多年來第一次出現大量的行業產能，這是否也影響了閹牛在更接近他們需要產品和庫存的時間點下訂單，就像過去一樣？

I'm sure there's some of that thinking in the marketplace. But I would say probably the bigger issue was the confidence in that end consumer of what they were going to do that nobody wanted to get ahead from an inventory position.

我確信市場上有一些這樣的想法。但我想說，可能更大的問題是最終消費者對他們將要做的事情的信心，沒有人願意從庫存狀況中獲得成功。

Got it. And then just thinking about raw materials as we get into the back half, do you expect more meaningful deflation than you saw in the first half at this point?

知道了。然後，當我們進入下半年時，考慮一下原材料，您是否預計此時的通貨緊縮會比上半年更有意義？

No. We -- I think HDPE will probably level out where it is. We've seen a little bit of benefit there. We just don't use that much virgin HDPE. We don't use much in the way of virgin PVC. So while it's nice, we're not seeing the cost go up on them like we did for a couple of years. It's not something that drives a large benefit to us because of our reliance on using recycled polyethylene.

不。我們——我認為 HDPE 可能會恢復原來的水平。我們在那裡看到了一些好處。我們只是不使用那麼多原生 HDPE。我們不使用太多原生 PVC。因此，雖然這很好，但我們並沒有看到它們的成本像幾年前那樣上漲。由於我們依賴使用再生聚乙烯，這並沒有給我們帶來很大的好處。

Our next question comes from Steven Ramsey from Thompson Research Group.

我們的下一個問題來自湯普森研究小組的史蒂文拉姆齊。

On the brand spend that's being effected, what is driving that effectiveness? And is the brand spend in the current times more effective than in the past?

就受到影響的品牌支出而言，是什麼推動了這種效果？當前的品牌支出是否比過去更有效？

Well, we have moved away from a heavy brand spend through the entire pandemic. In the first half of last year, we did get back into roughly a full load of brand spending and then pulled it back significantly as we were restructuring our business to achieve our financial goals and the appropriate market volume that's out there. We look at each 1 of the programs that we're offering from a branding perspective to understand its effectiveness in the market. How does that result in website views. And it's not just about people going to the overall trex.com, how are they interacting with us? Are they buying samples? Are they looking for a contractor? Are they looking for a retailer to buy that? And we've been able to correlate those numbers pretty closely over the years to understand the effectiveness of that marketing spend versus bringing people through the channel and resulting in an end market sale.

好吧，在整個大流行期間，我們已經擺脫了大量的品牌支出。去年上半年，我們確實恢復了大約滿負荷的品牌支出，然後在我們重組業務以實現我們的財務目標和適當的市場容量時大幅削減了支出。我們從品牌角度審視我們提供的每一項計劃，以了解其在市場上的有效性。這如何影響網站瀏覽量？這不僅僅是人們訪問整個 trex.com，他們如何與我們互動？他們購買樣品嗎？他們在尋找承包商嗎？他們正在尋找零售商來購買嗎？多年來，我們已經能夠將這些數字非常密切地關聯起來，以了解營銷支出與吸引人們通過渠道並最終實現終端市場銷售的有效性。

Helpful. And then thinking about you having a more robust view than channel partners on the market, the actual results beating your view. Thinking about channel partners, what is keeping them from buying more? Do you see a catalyst on the horizon that maybe brings the stocking to greater levels heading into 2024?

有幫助。然後考慮一下您比市場上的渠道合作夥伴擁有更穩健的觀點，實際結果超出了您的觀點。想想渠道合作夥伴，是什麼阻止他們購買更多產品？您是否認為即將出現的催化劑可能會使庫存在 2024 年達到更高水平？

I think if we all see that the consumer is going to hold up to the same level that it did this year and get back to a growth type environment. Our channel partners are absolutely going to want to build more inventories into the year, and we'll make sure that we have appropriate safety stocks here as well to be able to support the channel.

我認為，如果我們都看到消費者將保持與今年相同的水平，並回到增長型環境。我們的渠道合作夥伴絕對希望在今年建立更多的庫存，我們將確保我們在這裡也有適當的安全庫存，以便能夠支持該渠道。

Our next question comes from Kurt Yinger from D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yiner。戴維森。

Bryan, I guess I'm just curious, your thoughts on kind of wood to composite conversion this year. And as you look forward and you think about kind of the accelerated rate of conversion in the call it, the 2 years post-pandemic. How confident are you? Or how are you thinking about the ability to kind of achieve those elevated conversion rates going forward versus maybe falling back to something more normalized that we saw in the 2010 period?

布萊恩，我想我只是好奇你對今年木材向複合材料轉換的想法。當你展望未來時，你會想到大流行後兩年的加速轉化率。你有多少信心？或者，您如何看待未來實現更高轉化率的能力，而不是回落到我們在 2010 年期間看到的更正常化的水平？

So there was a lot of noise throughout the pandemic and composites well outgrew and out converted against wood during that time frame. I think the best way to look at it is I don't have complete data for this year. But the anecdotal data, I would say is, as we look at over the past 3 years, we've still been converting at about 200 basis per year -- basis points per year. It's been choppy. One year being really high, the next year being flat, maybe down a little bit. Thus far this year, we are continuing to see a positive indicators from the market that, that conversion is continuing.

因此，在整個大流行期間存在很多噪音，並且複合材料在這段時間內已經遠遠超出了木材的使用範圍。我認為最好的看待方式是我沒有今年的完整數據。但我想說的是，從過去 3 年的數據來看，我們仍然以每年約 200 個基點的速度進行兌換。一直很不穩定。一年非常高，明年則持平，甚至可能會下降一點。今年迄今為止，我們繼續從市場中看到積極的跡象，表明這種轉變仍在繼續。

Got it. And then just one follow-up on capital spending. Could you remind us where you're at in terms of the total Arkansas spend at this stage? And then I guess if you were to try to estimate like a run rate or normalized capital spending number, excluding that. What would that look like?

知道了。然後是資本支出的一項後續行動。您能否提醒我們阿肯色州現階段的總支出處於什麼位置？然後我想如果你要嘗試估計運行率或標準化資本支出數字，排除這一點。那會是什麼樣子？

Our maintenance CapEx is going to be roughly 5% revenue. The Little Rock number, I think, is about $150 million, maybe $170 million. So we've got a ways to go with that.

我們的維護資本支出約為收入的 5%。我認為小石城的數字約為 1.5 億美元，也許 1.7 億美元。所以我們有辦法做到這一點。

Our next question comes from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬修·鮑利。

So in terms of the channel inventory, you sort of mentioned that the channel is kind of looking for better visibility or comfort in the consumer to kind of return to more normal ordering patterns. Is that a comment that as we think about 2024, from what you can tell today, that maybe we could see a more return to more normal seasonality next year? Or should we think that what we saw this past year might still be the kind of new normal for the near term?

因此，就渠道庫存而言，您提到該渠道正在尋求更好的可見性或消費者的舒適度，以回歸更正常的訂購模式。當我們思考 2024 年時，從今天的情況來看，這是否是一種評論，也許我們明年可能會看到更正常的季節性回歸？或者我們是否應該認為去年所看到的情況可能仍然是近期的新常態？

I think the return to normalcy is what we're all looking for. So our operations have absolutely stabilized. The channel got used to running with very, very low inventories, high turns, higher margins. And this year, some of that's normalizing back out again into holding normalized inventories going into the season itself. But that doesn't completely turn around in 1 year. So I think we'll see further normalization next year. I hope it's completed in 2024, but it may extend out into 2025.

我認為恢復正常是我們所有人都在尋求的。所以我們的運營已經絕對穩定了。該渠道已經習慣了庫存非常非常低、周轉率高、利潤率更高的情況。今年，其中一些再次恢復正常，在進入季節時保持正常庫存。但這並不會在一年內完全扭轉。所以我認為明年我們將看到進一步的正常化。我希望它能在 2024 年完成，但也可能會延長到 2025 年。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then previously, you guys had spoken to sort of 100 to 150 basis points of better gross margins on $100 million of higher sales. Obviously, your visibility to margins has progressed here in production for the balance of the year. Is that still a good rule of thumb for us to think about?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。此前，你們曾談到，銷售額增加 1 億美元，毛利率將提高 100 到 150 個基點。顯然，今年剩餘時間的生產中，您對利潤的可見度已經有所提高。這仍然是我們值得思考的一個好的經驗法則嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And our next question comes from Reuben Garner from the Benchmark Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 公司的魯本·加納 (Reuben Garner)。

Congrats on the strong results. So I guess, first, a clarification. So you were previously building for $1 billion sort of production level, your outlook now is something better than that for revenue. Have you had to add people or lines or anything? Or will you have to in the second half? And is that kind of baked into the gross margin outlook, there's some investment in ramping back up? Or are you able to kind of manage by working using some of your existing inventory?

祝賀取得的強勁成果。所以我想，首先需要澄清一下。因此，您之前的建設目標是 10 億美元的生產水平，現在您的前景比收入更好。您是否需要添加人員或線路或其他內容？或者你必須在下半場這樣做嗎？這是否融入了毛利率前景，是否有一些投資來回升？或者您可以通過使用現有的一些庫存來進行管理嗎？

As we get later into the quarter, we did start to add back. It's not something that we can do overnight, and we'll add that on as we go through the rest of this year. But it does take time to add those people and lines in.

當我們進入本季度後期時，我們確實開始增加。這不是我們可以在一夜之間完成的事情，我們將在今年剩下的時間裡補充這一點。但添加這些人和線路確實需要時間。

And then the next question is working capital one. It's been a source of -- excuse me, a use of cash in the first half of the year. I know there were some things going on in the first quarter. Was you potentially having to build inventory? How do we think about how working capital will play out in the second half of the year?

下一個問題是營運資金問題。對不起，這是今年上半年現金使用的一個來源。我知道第一季度發生了一些事情。您是否可能需要建立庫存？我們如何看待下半年營運資金的表現？

You'll see that accounts receivable -- the first quarter accounts receivable balance was all collected in the second quarter. You'll see the second quarter balance all collected within the third quarter. And then the majority of that receivable balance will turn to cash by the end of the year and a certain amount of that will be offset by higher inventories.

你會看到應收賬款——第一季度的應收賬款餘額在第二季度全部收回。您將看到第二季度的餘額全部在第三季度內收集。然後，大部分應收賬款餘額將在年底前轉為現金，其中一部分將被庫存增加所抵消。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Bryan Fairbanks for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的問答環節就到此結束。我想請布萊恩·費爾班克斯 (Bryan Fairbanks) 發表結束語。

Thanks for your questions and your attendance on today's call. We look forward to speaking with many of you through the rest of the quarter. Good evening.

感謝您提出問題並參加今天的電話會議。我們期待在本季度剩下的時間裡與你們中的許多人交談。晚上好。

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be concluding today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。