Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, the Q4 2024, Taylor Morrison Home Corp earnings conference call, will begin shortly with your host, Mackenzie Aron.

女士們、先生們，Taylor Morrison Home Corp 2024 年第四季財報電話會議即將開始，由主持人 Mackenzie Aron 主持。

We appreciate your patience, prepare your session today.

我們感謝您的耐心，今天就準備好您的會議。

(Operator Instructions) We will begin shortly.

（操作員指示）我們很快就會開始。

Good morning, and welcome to Taylor Morrison's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加 Taylor Morrison 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I'd now like to introduce your host, Mackenzie Aron, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹您的主持人、投資者關係副總裁麥肯齊·阿隆 (Mackenzie Aron)。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早安。

We appreciate you joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Before we begin, let me remind you that this call, including the question-and-answer session, will include forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，本次電話會議（包括問答環節）將包含前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to the safe harbor statement for forward-looking information that you can review in our earnings release on the Investor Relations portion of our website at taylormorrison.com. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections.

這些聲明受前瞻性資訊安全港聲明約束，您可以在我們網站 taylormorrison.com 的投資者關係部分中的收益報告中查看。這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the SEC and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素，我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的任何義務。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in the release.

此外，我們將在電話會議上參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標與新聞稿中的 GAAP 數據進行了協調。

Now I will turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sheryl Palmer.

現在，我將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Sheryl Palmer。

Thank you, Mackenzie, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，麥肯齊，大家早安。

Joining me today is Curt VanHyfte, our Chief Financial Officer; and Erik Heuser, our Chief Corporate Operations Officer.

今天與我一起的是我們的財務長 Curt VanHyfte；以及我們的首席企業營運長 Erik Heuser。

I will share an update on the market and our strategic priorities while Eric will discuss our land portfolio and thoughts on the retail market, and Kurt will detail our financial performance and initial guidance for 2025.

我將分享市場最新動態和我們的策略重點，而 Eric 將討論我們的土地組合和對零售市場的看法，Kurt 將詳細介紹我們的財務表現和 2025 年的初步指引。

I am proud to share the strong results of our fourth quarter, which I believe once again distinguished our team's execution and the merits of our diversified consumer and geographic strategy.

我很自豪地與大家分享我們第四季度的強勁業績，我相信這再次彰顯了我們團隊的執行力以及多元化消費者和地理策略的優點。

Among the highlights, we delivered 3,571 homes at an average price of $608,000, producing nearly $2.2 billion of revenue with an adjusted home closings gross margin of 24.9%.

其中，我們以平均價格 608,000 美元交付了 3,571 套房屋，創造了近 22 億美元的收入，調整後的房屋成交毛利率為 24.9%。

Each of our operational metrics met or exceeded our prior guidance, combined with cost leverage, improved financial services income and a favorable tax rate.

我們的每項營運指標都達到或超過了先前的預期，再加上成本槓桿、改善的金融服務收入和優惠的稅率。

This generated nearly 30% year-over-year growth in our adjusted earnings per diluted share and a 14% year-over-year increase in our book value per share to $56.

這使得我們的調整後每股攤薄收益年增近 30%，每股帳面價值年增 14%，達到 56 美元。

From a sales perspective, as I shared on our last earnings call in October, we were seeing healthy demand trends in line with seasonal patterns.

從銷售角度來看，正如我在 10 月的上次財報電話會議上所分享的那樣，我們看到符合季節性模式的健康需求趨勢。

While interest rates increased sharply through the quarter, activity held up with impressive consistency through year-end.

儘管本季利率急劇上升，但活動在年底前仍保持了令人印象深刻的一致性。

As a result, our fourth quarter net orders increased 11% year-over-year with an absorption pace of 2.6 per community up from 2.4 a year ago.

因此，我們第四季的淨訂單年增 11%，每個社區的吸收速度從一年前的 2.4 上升至 2.6。

This brought our annualized absorption pace to 3 for the year within our targeted range.

這使得我們今年的年化吸收速度達到我們的目標範圍內的 3。

I am pleased that this sales success was achieved with only a modest increase in incentives needed to address the impact of higher interest rates.

我很高興看到，在僅略微增加應對利率上升影響所需的激勵措施的情況下，取得了這項銷售成功。

This contributed to our better-than-expected fourth quarter adjusted gross margin which was stable sequentially and up year-over-year in contrast to significant compression seen across our industry.

這導致我們第四季的調整後毛利率好於預期，與整個產業的大幅壓縮形成鮮明對比，該毛利率環比穩定，同比增長。

As I have highlighted on recent calls, our margins have remained in a tight range over the last two years despite the volatile rate environment.

正如我在最近的電話會議中所強調的那樣，儘管利率環境波動，但過去兩年我們的利潤率仍然保持在較低範圍內。

I attribute our positive results to the quality locations of our communities, which are concentrated in attractive core submarkets with minimal exposure to further out tertiary locations.

我將我們的積極成果歸功於我們社區的優質地理位置，這些地理位置集中在具有吸引力的核 心子市場，而較少受到較遠的第三產業地點的影響。

As Erik will discuss, tertiary markets are facing the most pricing pressure from rising inventory as well as greater sensitivity to affordability constraints among first-time buyers attracted to such markets.

正如艾瑞克所討論的，三級市場面臨來自庫存增加的最大定價壓力，以及首次購房者對負擔能力限制的更大敏感性。

Alternatively, our prime location strategy continues to benefit from attractive underlying fundamentals by serving well qualified homebuyers in our entry level, move-up and resort lifestyle segments.

另外，我們的黃金地段策略繼續受益於具有吸引力的根本面，透過為入門級、升級和度假生活方式領域的合格購屋者提供服務。

Across our portfolio, we further diversify by offering both to-be-built and spec homes aimed at meeting the needs and preferences of our customers.

在我們的產品組合中，我們透過提供待建房屋和樣品屋進一步實現多樣化，旨在滿足客戶的需求和偏好。

In addition to aiding our sales opportunities, this balanced mix further insulates our margins from broader market pressures as to-be-built homes generate superior gross margins.

除了增加我們的銷售機會之外，這種均衡的組合還使我們的利潤率免受更廣泛的市場壓力，因為待建房屋可以產生更高的毛利率。

As we have discussed in the past, a high percentage of our resort lifestyle buyers prefer to select their own home site, floor plan and elevation and generally spend 3 times more in lot and option premiums as compared to each of our other consumer groups.

正如我們過去所討論過的，很大一部分度假生活方式買家更喜歡選擇自己的住宅地點、平面圖和海拔，並且與我們的其他消費者群體相比，他們通常在土地和期權溢價上花費多 3 倍。

They also require less incentives and entry-level heavy spectrum.

它們還需要較少的激勵和入門級的重型頻譜。

This makes our fourth quarter margin performance, all the more notable when considering that 54% of the quarter's closings came from specs, including 21% that were sold and closed during the quarter, a higher-than-normal contribution that help drive the upside to our closing volume.

這使得我們第四季度的利潤率表現更加引人注目，因為本季 54% 的成交來自規格，其中 21% 是在本季度售出並成交的，這一貢獻高於正常水平，有助於推動我們成交量的上升。

As we look ahead, we expect this balanced approach and long-standing emphasis on quality locations to serve as well as we balance pace and price in each community to maximize our returns.

展望未來，我們期望這種平衡的方法和長期對優質地段的重視能夠平衡每個社區的速度和價格，從而實現回報最大化。

With the spring selling season officially kicking off this week following Sunday Super Bowl, early indicators are encouraging, appreciating that we have a difficult year-over-year comparison this quarter given the exceptionally strong sales recorded in the first quarter of 2024, we are pleased to see pre-qualifications growing by week and web traffic to taylormorrison.com almost up 40% from a year ago.

隨著超級盃結束後本周春季銷售季正式拉開序幕，早期指標令人鼓舞，鑑於 2024 年第一季度的銷售業績異常強勁，本季度與去年同期相比情況較困難，我們很高興看到預審資格每週都在增加，taylormorrison.com 的網絡流量比一年前增長了近 40%。

This strong lift in website visitors is a direct correlation to our involvement in ABC's reboot of Extreme Makeover Home Edition where we serve as the season's official homebuilder providing beautiful national homes to deserving families.

網站訪問量的大幅提升與我們參與 ABC 重啟的《極限改造家居版》直接相關，在該節目中，我們作為本季的官方房屋建築商，為值得幫助的家庭提供美麗的民族住宅。

In the fourth quarter and continuing into 2025, we're seeing healthy momentum in online home reservations with a 53% conversion to sale and a declining rate of participation with real estate agents.

從第四季到 2025 年，我們看到線上房屋預訂呈現健康發展勢頭，銷售轉換率為 53%，而房地產經紀人的參與率則有所下降。

Most notably, among customers using our online scheduling tool, we saw a sharp decline in the share of sales with a real estate agent to 67% last quarter from 80% a year ago.

最值得注意的是，在使用我們的線上預約工具的客戶中，我們發現透過房地產經紀人進行的銷售份額從一年前的 80% 急劇下降至上季的 67%。

This shift is likely due to a number of factors, including the recent NAR rulings, the pricing transparency delivered by our digital experience and our long-standing reputation as America's most trusted homebuilder 10 years running.

這種轉變可能是由於多種因素造成的，包括最近的 NAR 裁決、我們的數位體驗所帶來的定價透明度以及我們連續十年作為美國最值得信賴的房屋建築商的長期聲譽。

Alongside the year's early momentum, we are strategically managing our pricing and incentives including the rollout of a national base price increase in early January.

除了今年年初的發展勢頭外，我們還在策略性地管理我們的定價和激勵措施，包括於 1 月初在全國推出基準價格上調。

As needed, we continue to prioritize customizable finance incentives to address each customers' unique circumstances.

根據需要，我們將繼續優先考慮可自訂的財務激勵措施，以解決每個客戶的獨特情況。

By working closely with our customers to personalize the most effective use of sales tools, we better manage our overall incentive cost while improving our customers' purchasing power.

透過與客戶密切合作，以個人化方式最有效地使用銷售工具，我們可以更好地管理整體激勵成本，同時提高客戶的購買力。

This customer-by-customer strategy has allowed us to maintain a relatively low utilization of mortgage forward commitments tied to below market interest rates, with just 38% of our fourth quarter closings using these most costly incentive structures.

這種針對客戶的策略使我們能夠保持低於市場利率的抵押貸款遠期承諾的相對較低的利用率，只有 38% 的第四季度收盤價使用了這些最昂貴的激勵結構。

Similar to the last many quarters, about half of the customers using these forward commitments, our first-time home buyers.

與過去幾季類似，大約有一半使用這些遠期承諾的客戶是我們的首次購屋者。

By Consumer Group, our fourth quarter orders consisted of 32% entry level, 48% move-up and 20% resort lifestyle.

按消費者類別劃分，我們第四季的訂單包括 32% 的入門訂單、48% 的升級訂單和 20% 的度假生活方式訂單。

On a year-over-year basis, orders were strongest in our move-up segment with 27% growth, while our entry-level sales were up 5% and resort lifestyle declined 9% in part due to the hurricane impact in Florida, where this segment is heaviest as well as the timing of opening and closeout of Esplanade communities at year end.

與去年同期相比，我們的升級細分市場的訂單最為強勁，增長了 27%，而我們的入門級銷售額則增長了 5%，度假生活方式銷售額則下降了 9%，部分原因是佛羅裡達州的颶風影響最為嚴重，以及 Esplanade 社區的開業和關閉時間都在年底。

In addition, Florida has been faced with some of the highest levels of rising inventory.

此外，佛羅裡達州還面臨庫存上漲的最高水準。

But as Erik will elaborate on, we have found that most of the supply is not competitive to our communities and we are encouraged that Florida has started to show some positive signs year-to-date.

但正如艾瑞克所詳細闡述的那樣，我們發現大多數供應對我們的社區來說並不具有競爭力，我們很高興看到佛羅裡達州今年迄今已開始顯示出一些積極跡象。

Overall, I would characterize buyer demand across all of our buyer profiles is healthy, albeit with varying needs of assistance to overcome affordability challenges with the most pressure at the entry level.

整體而言，我認為所有買家的需求都是健康的，儘管對克服負擔能力挑戰的援助需求各不相同，但入門級的壓力最大。

Recognizing that there are more unknowns this year than typical given the new administration, we continue to be grounded in a positive view on the need for new construction that meets the needs and budgets of our targeted consumer groups.

我們認識到，在新政府的領導下，今年的未知數比往年要多，因此我們繼續對滿足我們目標消費者群體的需求和預算的新建築的需求持積極看法。

While interest rates are unlikely to provide near-term relief to affordability constraints, we believe our suite of incentive tools and broad product offerings are appropriately aligned to achieve our targeted sales goals.

雖然利率不太可能在短期內緩解負擔能力限制，但我們相信，我們的一系列激勵工具和廣泛的產品供應能夠適當協調，以實現我們的銷售目標。

We will meet the market as needed as we look to maintain an annualized sales pace in the low three range while also generating healthy gross margins in the low to mid-20% range.

我們將根據需求滿足市場需求，爭取將年銷售速度維持在 3% 以下，同時實現 20% 至 20% 左右的健康毛利率。

As Curt will discuss in greater detail, our initial guidance for the year calls for 13,500 to 14,000 home closings at a gross margin between 23% to 24% and an SG&A ratio in the mid-9% range.

正如 Curt 將會詳細討論的那樣，我們對今年的初步預期是房屋成交量為 13,500 至 14,000 套，毛利率在 23% 至 24% 之間，銷售、一般及行政費用比率在 9% 中間範圍。

Let me just end by saying that as an organization with significant tenure across our leadership and operating teams, we are well accustomed to facing uncertainty and market disruptions head on.

最後，我想說的是，作為一個領導階層和營運團隊都任期較長的組織，我們已經習慣直面不確定性和市場混亂。

Our teams are nimble and have the flexibility to adjust our starts, product offerings and pricing structures as needed to minimize risk and maximize long-term profitability.

我們的團隊行動敏捷，能夠根據需要靈活調整我們的起步、產品供應和定價結構，以最大限度地降低風險並最大限度地提高長期盈利能力。

Beyond the near-term potential headwinds, we remain confident in our outlook and look forward to providing more insights into our strengthened organizational capabilities at our upcoming Investor Day.

除了近期的潛在阻力之外，我們對我們的前景仍然充滿信心，並期待在即將到來的投資者日上對我們加強的組織能力提供更多見解。

We hope all of you will join us on March 6 at 12 PM Eastern Time for the webcast presentation, which will highlight our multiyear growth trajectory and the many ways in which we have set up Taylor Morrison to succeed regardless of the market backdrop.

我們希望大家能於 3 月 6 日美國東部時間中午 12 點參加我們的網路直播演示，該演示將重點介紹我們多年的成長軌跡以及無論市場背景如何，我們如何讓 Taylor Morrison 取得成功。

For those of you able to attend in person, and we look forward to seeing you soon.

對於那些能夠親自參加的人，我們期待很快見到您。

With that, let me now turn the call over to Erik.

說完這些，我現在把電話轉給艾瑞克。

Thanks, Sheryl, and good morning.

謝謝，謝麗爾，早安。

Beginning with our land portfolio, our owned and controlled lot inventory was 86,153 homebuilding lots at quarter end.

從我們的土地投資組合開始，截至季度末，我們擁有和控制的地塊庫存為 86,153 個住宅建築地塊。

Based on trailing 12-month closings, this represented 6.6 years of supply of which only 2.8 years was owned.

根據過去 12 個月的收盤價，這代表 6.6 年的供應量，其中只有 2.8 年是自有的。

Of these total lots, 57% were controlled via options and off-balance sheet structures, up from 53% at the end of 2023 and 51% at the end of 2022.

在這些總批次中，57% 是透過選擇權和表外結構控制的，高於 2023 年底的 53% 和 2022 年底的 51%。

From an investment perspective, we allocated $293 million to homebuilding land acquisition and $297 million to development of existing assets for a total of $590 million during the quarter.

從投資角度來看，本季我們分配了 2.93 億美元用於住宅建築土地收購，2.97 億美元用於現有資產開發，總計 5.9 億美元。

This brought our full year investment to approximately $2.4 billion, of which 57% was for lot acquisitions and 43% was for development of existing parcels.

這使我們的全年投資達到約 24 億美元，其中 57% 用於土地收購，43% 用於現有地塊的開發。

In 2025, we are projecting our total homebuilding land investment to be approximately $2.6 billion with a similar split between acquisition and development.

到 2025 年，我們預計住宅建設土地總投資將達到約 26 億美元，其中收購和開發的份額大致相同。

As always, our ultimate investment will be dependent on market opportunities and our increasing use of off-balance sheet financing tools to support our growth aspirations.

像往常一樣，我們的最終投資將取決於市場機會以及我們越來越多地使用表外融資工具來支持我們的成長願望。

Our use of such tools aims to generate enhanced returns on our invested capital, and we are well on our way to achieving our near-term goal of controlling at least 60% to 65% of our lot supply.

我們使用這些工具的目的是為了提高投資資本的回報，我們正在順利實現近期目標，即控制至少 60% 至 65% 的批次供應量。

Supported by this investment, we expect our community count to grow in the quarters ahead with an anticipated ending outlet comp between 340 to 345 for the first quarter and at least 355 by the end of the year.

在該投資的支持下，我們預計未來幾季我們的社區數量將會成長，預計第一季的期末門市數量將在 340 至 345 家之間，到年底將至少達到 355 家。

As we have discussed previously, our average underwritten community size has grown materially in the last three years versus the prior three, while our targeted pesos have increased by approximately 25% over the same period, allowing us to greatly expand our business on a smaller outlet count all else equal.

正如我們之前所討論的，與前三年相比，我們的平均承保社區規模在過去三年中有了大幅增長，而我們的目標比索在同一時期增加了約 25%，這使我們能夠在其他條件相同的情況下在較少的網點數量上大大擴展我們的業務。

This shift to support higher sales paces and a more cost-effective structure, we believe will continue to provide greater returns over time.

我們相信，這種支持更高銷售速度和更具成本效益的結構的轉變將隨著時間的推移繼續提供更大的回報。

Turning to our yard lead build-to-rent business.

轉向我們的院子主導的建造出租業務。

As expected, we sold two wholly owned assets during the quarter for a valuation that yielded a load of mid-5 cap rate.

正如預期的那樣，我們在本季出售了兩項全資資產，估值獲得了中等5%的資本化率。

With 11 communities currently leasing across 6 markets, we are targeting five to seven additional asset sales in 2025, depending on market conditions.

目前，6 個市場中有 11 個社區正在租賃，我們的目標是根據市場狀況，在 2025 年額外出售 5 到 7 個資產。

As we look out, based on the pipeline of communities underway, we expect to ramp the level of annual dispositions until reaching a relatively steady state in the next three to four years.

展望未來，基於正在建設中的社區項目，我們預計未來三到四年內，年度處置水準將逐步提高，直到達到相對穩定的狀態。

I look forward to providing a greater detail on this evolving business at next month's Investor Day.

我期待在下個月的投資者日上提供有關這一不斷發展的業務的更多詳細資訊。

Another topic we will spend time on at the Investor Day is the quality of our land locations, which we believe is a defining characteristic of our portfolio.

我們將在投資者日討論的另一個主題是我們的土地位置質量，我們相信這是我們投資組合的決定性特徵。

The importance of this focus is reinforced as resale home supply has increased in most markets as has new construction inventory in many cases.

由於大多數市場的轉售房屋供應量增加，以及許多情況下新建房屋庫存增加，這一關注點的重要性得到了加強。

While the aggregate level of new and resale homes on the market across the US.

而美國市場上新建房屋和轉售房屋的整體水準。

remains well below historic averages, we are closely monitoring the impact of rising supply on our portfolio, given the 30% increase of resale months of supply across our MSA footprint over the last year.

仍遠低於歷史平均水平，我們正在密切關注供應量增加對我們投資組合的影響，因為去年我們的 MSA 足跡中的轉售供應月數增加了 30%。

Despite these headline numbers, it is worth noting several meaningful market nuances.

儘管這些是總體數字，但一些有意義的市場細微差別仍然值得注意。

For one, there are still markets with very low supply, such as the Bay Area with less than two months of inventory.

首先，仍有供應量非常低的市場，例如灣區的庫存量不到兩個月。

And after analysing a number of our MSAs, including those in Florida and Texas, where attention is most focused, and reviewing the submarkets in which we operate compared to those in which we do not, we overwhelmingly found lower months of supply, reflecting our favorable strategic positioning.

在分析了我們的多個 MSA（包括最受關注的佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的 MSA）並比較了我們經營的子市場與未經營的子市場之後，我們發現供應月份明顯較低，這反映了我們有利的戰略定位。

As you will recall, this recent analysis follows our previous community review, which highlighted that approximately 17% of resale homes would be deemed competitive to our new home offerings after considering vintage size, price and product type sectors.

您會記得，最近的分析是根據我們先前的社區評估進行的，評估強調，在考慮舊房面積、價格和產品類型後，大約 17% 的轉售房屋被認為與我們的新房產品具有競爭力。

This competitive set would be even lower after further filtering for community type, which is especially relevant among shoppers in the age-targeted communities such as Esquinot where we sort lifestyle buyers intentionally seek out our distinctive amenities, concierge services and single-level products that they can personalize to meet their needs.

在進一步篩選社區類型後，這個競爭組合會更低，這在以年齡為目標的社區（如埃斯基諾特）的購物者中尤其重要，我們對生活方式買家進行分類，他們有意尋找我們獨特的設施、禮賓服務和單層產品，以便他們可以個性化以滿足他們的需求。

As we look to invest to support our strong growth aspirations, we will remain mindful of these dynamics as we contemplate investment decisions while continuing to emphasize a strong preference for core locations.

當我們尋求投資來支持我們強勁的成長願望時，我們將在考慮投資決策時牢記這些動態，同時繼續強調對核心位置的強烈偏好。

With that, I will turn the call to Curt.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給 Curt。

Thanks, Erik, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，埃里克，大家早安。

For the fourth quarter, reported net income was $242 million or $2.30 per diluted share.

第四季度，報告的淨收入為 2.42 億美元，即每股攤薄收入 2.30 美元。

After excluding legal, impairment and other charges, our adjusted net income was $278 million or $2.64 per diluted share.

扣除法律費用、減損費用和其他費用後，我們的調整後淨收入為 2.78 億美元，即每股攤薄收入 2.64 美元。

This was up 29% from an adjusted earnings per share of $2.05 a year ago, driven by higher revenue due to increased closing volume and improved home closings gross margin stronger financial services profitability and the lower tax rate.

這比去年同期調整後的每股收益 2.05 美元增長了 29％，這得益於成交量增加、房屋成交毛利率提高、金融服務盈利能力增強以及稅率降低導致的收入增加。

Our closings volume increased 12% year-over-year to 3,571 homes.

我們的成交量年增 12%，達到 3,571 套。

The average closing price of these deliveries was roughly flat from a year ago at $608,000.

這些交付的平均收盤價與一年前基本持平，為 608,000 美元。

In total, this produced home closings revenue of $2.2 billion.

總體而言，這產生了 22 億美元的房屋成交收入。

From a production standpoint, we moderated our starts volume by 5% to 2,779 homes or 2.7% per community per month from 2,912 and homes or 3% per community per month a year ago.

從生產角度來看，我們將開工量從一年前的每月 2,912 套減少到每月每個社區 2,779 套，降幅為 5%，即每月每個社區 2,779 套，降幅為 2.7%。

Recognizing that our finished inventory of 857 homes at quarter end is slightly elevated compared to our historic run rate.

我們認識到，與歷史運行率相比，本季末我們的成品房屋庫存量為 857 套，略有上升。

We believe this inventory is well positioned to meet expected consumer demand during the spring selling season as evidenced by our team's success in selling and closing a record number of intra-quarter spec sales during the fourth quarter.

我們相信，這些庫存完全能夠滿足春季銷售季節的預期消費者需求，我們的團隊在第四季度成功銷售並達成創紀錄的季度內規格銷售數量就證明了這一點。

Going forward, we will be mindful of our inventory levels, and we'll continue to align new starts with sales as our strategy allows us to pivot based on market demand.

展望未來，我們將密切關注庫存水平，並將繼續保持新產品的開工與銷售保持一致，因為我們的策略允許我們根據市場需求進行調整。

In total, we ended the quarter with 7,698 homes under production, of which 3,437 were specs.

總體而言，本季結束時我們共有 7,698 套房屋投入生產，其中 3,437 套為規格房。

During the quarter, our cycle times continued to improve and were down nearly 30 days year-over-year as our teams achieved the savings we targeted going into 2024.

在本季度，我們的週期時間繼續改善，與去年同期相比減少了近 30 天，因為我們的團隊實現了我們進入 2024 年的目標節約。

Based on our homes currently under production, and the normalization in our production time lines, we currently expect to deliver between 13,500 to 14,000 homes this year.

根據我們目前正在生產的房屋以及生產時間表的正常化，我們目前預計今年將交付 13,500 至 14,000 套房屋。

This includes approximately 2,900 homes in the first quarter.

其中包括第一季的約 2,900 套房屋。

Based on the mix of these deliveries, we expect the average closing price to be in the range of $590,000 to $600,000 each quarter and for the full year.

根據這些交付的組合，我們預計每個季度和全年的平均收盤價將在 590,000 美元至 600,000 美元之間。

Turning now to margins. our home closings gross margin in the fourth quarter was 24.8% on a reported basis and 24.9% adjusted for a $3 million impairment charge.

現在來談談利潤。我們第四季的房屋成交毛利率按報告基礎計算為 24.8%，經 300 萬美元的減損費用調整後為 24.9%。

This was stable from a reported margin of 24.8% in the third quarter, but up from 24.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

這與第三季報告的 24.8% 的利潤率保持穩定，但高於 2023 年第四季的 24.1%。

We understand there is heightened focus on margin outlook this year given the many cross-currents at play.

我們瞭解，由於有許多不利因素，今年人們對利潤率前景的關注度有所提高。

On the one hand, our beginning backlog of over 4,700 homes carry strong margins.

一方面，我們期初積壓的超過 4,700 套房屋帶來了豐厚的利潤。

And the normalization and cycle times affords us the opportunity to start and close a greater number of high-margin to-be-built homes than in recent years.

並且，正常化和週期時間使我們有機會開工和關閉比近年來更多的高利潤的待建房屋。

And as you've heard today, we expect our diversified portfolio to withstand relative margin pressure given the strength of our customer base.

正如您今天所聽到的，鑑於我們強大的客戶基礎，我們預計我們的多元化投資組合將承受相對的利潤壓力。

However, on the other hand, we are assuming a step-up in incentives from the fourth quarter given the increase in interest rates thus far in the new year.

然而，另一方面，考慮到新年迄今利率已經上升，我們預計從第四季開始激勵措施將會加大。

We're also expecting a step-up in land cost inflation to approximately 7% this year from 4% in 2024.

我們也預計土地成本通膨率將從 2024 年的 4% 上升至今年的約 7%。

Taking into account these factors and the anticipated mix of our deliveries, we expect our home closings gross margin to be between 23% and 24% this year, including the high 23% range in the first quarter.

考慮到這些因素以及預期的交付組合，我們預計今年房屋成交毛利率將在 23% 至 24% 之間，其中第一季為 23% 的高點。

We are watching the evolving tariff situation closely and believe our range for the year appropriately accounts for the likely outcomes we could face based on our best understanding of product exposure.

我們正在密切關注不斷變化的關稅形勢，並相信根據我們對產品風險的最佳理解，我們今年的範圍可以適當地解釋我們可能面臨的結果。

Fortunately, given the steps we have taken to streamline our option SKUs, reshore products, and strengthen our supply chain resiliency in recent years, we believe we are prepared for any potential disruptions should they arise.

幸運的是，考慮到我們近年來為精簡可選 SKU、重新上岸產品和加強供應鏈彈性所採取的措施，我們相信我們已經為可能出現的任何中斷做好了準備。

Importantly, we continue to expect our long-term gross margins to remain above our historic averages in the low to mid-20% range, given production and operational efficiencies cost leverage from our scale and lower capitalized interest burden.

重要的是，考慮到我們規模帶來的生產和營運效率成本槓桿以及較低的資本化利息負擔，我們繼續預期我們的長期毛利率將保持在 20% 至 20% 左右的歷史平均值之上。

Now to sales.

現在談談銷售。

Our net sales orders increased 11% year-over-year to 2,621 homes.

我們的淨銷售訂單年增11%，達到2,621套。

This was driven by an 8% improvement in our monthly absorption pace to 2.6% per community and 4% increase in ending community count to 339 outlets.

這是由於我們的每月吸收率提高了 8% 至每個社區 2.6% 以及期末社區數量增加了 4% 至 339 個網點。

Reflecting the sustained improvement in our absorption rates as we shifted into higher pacing communities and geographies, our sales paces throughout 2024 remained well above our pre-2020 average in the low to mid-2% range.

隨著我們轉向更高節奏的社區和地區，我們的吸收率持續提高，2024 年全年的銷售速度仍遠高於 2020 年前的平均水平，在 2% 的低至中範圍內。

Specific to the fourth quarter, our 2.6 pace was well ahead of our historic average of

具體到第四季度，我們的 2.6 的成長速度遠高於歷史平均水平

Cancellations remained within normal ranges and below industry averages at 13.1% of gross orders as we continue to benefit from our strong consumer base, diligent prequalification requirements an average customer deposits of approximately $50,000 per home.

取消率仍在正常範圍內，且低於行業平均水平，為總訂單的 13.1%，這得益於我們繼續受益於強大的消費者基礎、嚴格的資格預審要求以及每戶約 50,000 美元的平均客戶押金。

SG&A as a percentage of home closings revenue in the fourth quarter was 9.4% down 30 basis points from 9.7% a year ago.

第四季銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋成交收入的百分比為 9.4%，較去年同期的 9.7% 下降了 30 個基點。

As we look ahead into 2025, we expect our SG&A ratio to improve to the mid-9% range from 9.9% in 2024.

展望 2025 年，我們預期銷售、一般及行政開支比率將從 2024 年的 9.9% 改善至 9% 中間區間。

Financial Services revenue was $54 million with a gross margin of 48%, up from $43 million and 46% a year ago.

金融服務收入為 5,400 萬美元，毛利率為 48%，高於一年前的 4,300 萬美元和 46%。

Driving these results, our financial service team achieved a capture rate of 89%, up from 86% a year ago reflecting the success of our incentive strategies, customer service and close partnership with our homebuilding teams.

在推動這些成果的推動下，我們的金融服務團隊實現了 89% 的捕獲率，高於一年前的 86%，這反映了我們的激勵策略、客戶服務和與房屋建築團隊的密切合作的成功。

In the fourth quarter, buyers financed by Taylor Morrison Home Funding had an average credit score of 752, down payment of 23% and household income of $183,000.

第四季度，由 Taylor Morrison Home Funding 融資的購屋者平均信用評分為 752、首付為 23%，家庭收入為 183,000 美元。

Turning now to our value.

現在來談談我們的價值。

We ended the quarter with liquidity of approximately $1.4 billion.

截至本季末，我們的流動資金約為 14 億美元。

This included $487 million of unrestricted cash and $947 million of available capacity on our revolving credit facility, which was undrawn outside of normal course letters of credit.

其中包括 4.87 億美元的非限制現金和 9.47 億美元的循環信貸額度可用額度，這些額度是在正常信用狀之外未提取的。

Our net homebuilding debt to capitalization ratio was within targeted range at 20% at year-end.

截至年底，我們的房屋建築淨債務與資本化比率處於 20% 的目標範圍內。

And our next senior note maturity is not until 2027, providing us with financial flexibility.

我們的下一期優先票據要到 2027 年才到期，這為我們提供了財務靈活性。

During the quarter, we repurchased 1.4 million shares of our common stock outstanding for [$90 million], bringing our full year investment to 5.6 million shares and $348 million, well ahead of our target.

在本季度，我們以 9,000 萬美元的價格回購了 140 萬股普通股，使我們的全年投資達到 560 萬股和 3.48 億美元，遠遠超過了我們的目標。

At year-end, our remaining repurchase authorization was $910 million.

截至年底，我們剩餘的回購授權為 9.1 億美元。

Having repurchased a total of [$1.8 billion] of our shares outstanding since 2015 or nearly 55% of our beginning share count, we expect to continue utilizing healthy cash generation to repurchase our shares, utilizing both programmatic and opportunistic strategies.

自 2015 年以來，我們共回購了 [18 億美元] 的流通股，佔期初股份總數的近 55%，我們預計將繼續利用健康的現金流回購我們的股票，同時採用程序化和機會性策略。

For 2025, we are targeting total share repurchases in the range of $300 million to $350 million.

到 2025 年，我們的目標是股票回購總額達到 3 億至 3.5 億美元。

After considering the midpoint of this repurchase target, we expect our diluted shares outstanding to average approximately $102 million for the full year, including $104 million for the first quarter.

考慮該回購目標的中點後，我們預計全年稀釋流通股平均約為 1.02 億美元，其中第一季為 1.04 億美元。

Now I will turn the call back over to Sheryl.

現在我將把電話轉回給謝麗爾。

Thank you, Curt.

謝謝你，Curt。

To wrap up, before we turn the page on 2024, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on this year's achievements of each of our long-term targets.

最後，在我們翻開 2024 年的新篇章之前，我想花點時間來回顧一下我們今年在實現每個長期目標方面所取得的成就。

When we introduced these targets last year for sales pace, closings growth, gross margin and return on equity, our intent was to help provide greater insight and evolution of Taylor Morrison following a strategic growth and positioning.

當我們去年推出銷售速度、成交量成長、毛利率和股本回報率這些目標時，我們的目的是幫助更深入地了解 Taylor Morrison 的策略成長和定位及其演變。

We hit our multiyear targets that we believe are achievable based on the makeup of our entities and investment strategy and diversified portfolio.

我們實現了多年目標，我們相信，根據我們實體的組成、投資策略和多元化投資組合，這些目標是可以實現的。

I am proud that despite the challenges that arose over the course of 2024 from volatile interest rates, highly competitive pressures and extreme weather, we still met or exceeded each of these goals.

我很自豪，儘管 2024 年面臨利率波動、激烈競爭壓力和極端天氣等挑戰，但我們仍然實現或超越了每一個目標。

By delivering nearly 13,000 homes, we increased our closings volume by 12%, well ahead of the 4% increase contemplated in our initial guidance heading into the year and our 10% average growth target.

透過交付近 13,000 套房屋，我們的成交量增加了 12%，遠高於我們今年初步預期的 4% 的增幅和 10% 的平均成長目標。

Along with the stronger volume, our adjusted gross margin of 24.5% was up 50 basis points year-over-year more than 100 basis points better than our initial expectations and at the high end of our low to mid-20% target.

隨著銷量的增加，我們的調整後毛利率為 24.5%，比去年同期增長了 50 個基點，比我們最初的預期高出 100 多個基點，並且處於我們 20% 中低目標的高端。

As you've heard this morning, our annualized sales pace of three for the year also met our goal.

正如大家今天早上所聽到的，我們今年的年化銷售速度為 3，也達到了我們的目標。

Combined with nearly $350 million in share repurchases, these results helped drive our return on equity to approximately 16% and set the stage for further expansion this year.

加上近 3.5 億美元的股票回購，這些結果幫助我們將股本回報率提高到約 16%，並為今年的進一步擴張奠定了基礎。

We also entered into the affordable Indianapolis market, prudently increased our controlled lot percentage towards our 60% to 65% goal and made further progress in streamlining our operations for greater profitability.

我們也進入了價格合理的印第安納波利斯市場，審慎地提高我們的控制地塊百分比，朝著 60% 至 65% 的目標邁進，並在精簡運營以提高盈利能力方面取得進一步進展。

Most importantly, while 2025 promises for new challenges, some of which we are just beginning to fully understand, we are confident in our ability to navigate the headwinds and deliver results that once again meet the long-term targets we have established.

最重要的是，雖然 2025 年充滿了新的挑戰，其中一些我們才剛開始完全理解，但我們有信心能夠克服困難，取得成果，再次實現我們設定的長期目標。

As our initial guidance for the year suggests we expect to grow our business while producing better than historical margins and returns.

正如我們今年的初步預期，我們預期業務成長的同時，利潤率和回報率將優於歷史水準。

As you will hear at our Investor Day, we are committed to outsized growth in the years ahead and believe we have established the operational capability to do so accretively.

正如您將在我們的投資者日上聽到的那樣，我們致力於在未來幾年實現超額成長，並相信我們已經建立了實現增值的營運能力。

I look forward to sharing more in three weeks and as always, want to end by thanking our teams for their dedication and execution.

我期待在三週後分享更多，並且像往常一樣，最後要感謝我們團隊的奉獻和執行。

It is because of their efforts that Taylor Morrison has recently been named America's most trusted homebuilder by Life Story Research for an unprecedented tenth year and to forge inaugural most trusted companies in America list where we ranked number 12 out of 300.

正是由於他們的努力，泰勒莫里森最近被 Life Story Research 評為美國最值得信賴的房屋建築商，這是史無前例的連續十年，並首次榮登美國最值得信賴公司榜單，在 300 家公司中排名第 12 位。

Now let's open the call to your questions.

現在讓我們開始回答你們的問題。

Operator, please provide our participants with instructions.

接線員，請向我們的參與者提供指示。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬修‧布萊 (Matthew Bouley)。

Good morning.

早安.

You have Elizabeth Langan on for Matt this morning.

今天早上，伊麗莎白·蘭根 (Elizabeth Langan) 為馬特 (Matt) 主持節目。

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

I just wanted to start off on gross margins.

我只是想從毛利率開始說起。

I know that you noted that incentives are moving higher.

我知道您注意到激勵措施正在不斷提高。

Could you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the cadence for gross margins this year with the higher incentive and with your 1Q gross margin guide in the high 23% range.

您能否談談，在更高的激勵措施和第一季 23% 高位毛利率指導價背景下，您如何考慮今年毛利率的節奏？

Would you mind speaking kind of how you're thinking about it in the context of the year in that 23% to 24% range?

您介意談談您對今年 23% 至 24% 範圍內的情況有何看法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Elizabeth, this is Curt.

伊莉莎白，這是 Curt。

I'll take that one.

我要那個。

So again, for the first quarter, we're guiding to the high 23% range.

因此，對於第一季度，我們再次預計其成長率將達到 23% 的高點。

And as I think you can tell by our full year margin guide for year, we're assuming moderating our margins over the course of the year as we take into account the step-up in rates and the fact that we have lot cost inflation that we're going to be taking on over the course of the year.

我想您可以從我們的全年利潤率指南中看出，我們假設我們的利潤率會在全年內有所緩和，因為我們考慮到了利率的上升，以及我們全年將要承擔的大量成本通膨的事實。

So that's kind of -- I guess the general idea is that, I guess, in summary, is that the margin will moderate over the course of the year.

所以這有點——我想總體的想法是，總而言之，利潤率將在一年內有所緩和。

And Curt, would you say it's fair?

那麼 Curt，您認為這公平嗎？

If you look at what came through the P&L in the fourth quarter, probably a little bit different.

如果你看一下第四季的損益表，可能會有些不同。

We're going to see that go up a little bit because rates have gone up.

由於利率上升，我們將看到該數字略有上升。

But when we think about what we were offering on the sales floor in the fourth quarter, it's actually probably pretty -- the exit rate is probably pretty similar to what we expect, given rates are generally in the same place.

但當我們思考我們在第四季度在銷售現場提供的產品時，它實際上可能相當——退出率可能與我們的預期非常相似，因為利率通常處於同一水平。

That's fair.

這很公平。

.

。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And just to follow up on the gross margins a little bit.

只要稍微追蹤一下毛利率。

You mentioned that land costs assuming like 7% this year, what are you assuming around material costs with the potential impact for tariff?

您提到今年土地成本預計將上漲 7%，那麼您認為材料成本對關稅的潛在影響如何？

And I know that you said that you've reshored a lot of your products, but it would be help to have any color around that.

我知道您說過，您已將許多產品回流到國內，但如果能對此有所說明，那將大有裨益。

Yes.

是的。

Another great question.

又一個好問題。

It's very interesting.

這很有趣。

Up until a couple of weeks ago, I would say that the cost environment was pretty stable as well as the overall supply chain.

直到幾週前，我認為成本環境以及整體供應鏈都相當穩定。

Like you, we've been following the news relative to the discussions on tariffs.

與您一樣，我們也一直在關注有關關稅討論的新聞。

And so as we look at that, depending on kind of which tariff and you want to speak to, whether it's steel or any of the other tariffs relative to our friends to the north or to the south, we do expect some cost pressure from some of that.

因此，當我們考慮這一點時，取決於你想談論的是哪種關稅，無論是鋼鐵關稅還是相對於我們北方或南方朋友的任何其他關稅，我們確實預計其中一些會帶來一些成本壓力。

If it's just the steel, it's quite minimal from that perspective, maybe $1,200 is a lot.

如果只是鋼材，從這個角度來看，價格相當低廉，也許 1,200 美元就很多了。

And that would only impact us in the back half of the year.

這只會對我們下半年產生影響。

Relative to the other tariffs that are out there, as we're looking at it and doing our homework, it's really early in the process.

相對於現有的其他關稅，我們正在對其進行研究和準備，目前這一進程還處於早期階段。

And depending on if they come back, when we're looking at it, it might be an impact of $4,000 to $5,000 a house roughly speaking.

根據他們是否回來，我們來看，這可能會對每棟房屋造成約 4,000 至 5,000 美元的影響。

But the time that, that would get implemented and the impact end of the year would largely be a fourth quarter kind of time period.

但該政策實施的時間以及對年底的影響主要會在第四季。

So again, we think it's very manageable within the range guide that we gave for the year that has been contemplated in that.

因此，我們再次認為，在我們為今年給出的範圍指南內，這是非常易於管理的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Look forward to seeing you guys in March.

期待三月與你們見面。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥可‧雷豪特 (Michael Rehaut)。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First, I'd love to get a sense for the pricing backdrop.

首先，我想了解一下定價背景。

You mentioned that you had only modest incentive -- increase in incentives in the fourth quarter, and you're actually looking for a price increase, if I heard you right in January, so -- which is a little counter to, I think, the rest of the group.

您提到，您只獲得了適度的激勵 - 第四季度的激勵措施有所增加，而您實際上正在尋求價格上漲，如果我在一月份沒有聽錯的話，所以 - 我認為這與其他集團的說法有些相反。

So I'd love to get a better sense of -- number one, your pricing strategy in general, how you are approaching the market, given that perhaps the rest of the market is seeing perhaps a sharper increase in incentives?

因此，我希望更了解——第一，您的整體定價策略，您是如何進入市場的，因為其他市場可能正在經歷更大幅度的激勵措施成長？

And also, how much of your guidance includes a step-up in incentives in the first quarter or throughout 2025?

另外，您的指導意見中有多少包括在第一季或整個 2025 年增加激勵措施？

Yes.

是的。

Fair questions, Michael.

公平地提問，邁克爾。

Thanks for them.

謝謝他們。

Let me start with kind of the fourth quarter.

讓我先談一下第四季。

We saw kind of pricing power in just about 50% of our communities, so we felt really good about the sales performance in the fourth quarter even as you mentioned, a very difficult selling environment.

我們看到大約 50% 的社區都有定價權，因此，儘管正如您所說，銷售環境非常困難，但我們對第四季度的銷售業績感到非常滿意。

Looking month-to-month over the quarter, performance felt like it was kind of more in line with historical patterns, albeit with maybe a few more little obstacles.

縱觀整個季度的月度表現，儘管可能存在一些小障礙，但業績表現似乎更符合歷史模式。

But honestly, if anything, I was a little surprised how consistent each month was within the quarter, seeing a very, very small spread between the months.

但老實說，如果有的話，我對每個月在本季度內的表現如此一致感到有點驚訝，因為各個月份之間的差距非常非常小。

As we moved into '25, the price increase that you spoke of, we actually did do a national price increase.

當我們進入25年時，您所說的價格上漲，實際上我們確實在全國範圍內提高了價格。

I think it was on the second of January.

我認為那是一月二號。

The January started off pretty slow.

一月份的開始相當緩慢。

I'll be honest, very pleased with the pickup we've seen since mid-January and further pick up into February.

說實話，我對自 1 月中旬以來的回升以及 2 月的進一步回升感到非常高興。

Having said that, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we had a very robust Q1 last year.

話雖如此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，去年我們第一季的業績非常強勁。

So up against a very difficult comp, I'm not sure if we'll catch it, but I'm very optimistic about the traffic we're seeing.

因此，面對非常困難的比賽，我不確定我們是否能趕上，但我對我們看到的流量非常樂觀。

As you would expect, Mike, the pricing opportunities is very much a community-by-community decision.

正如您所期望的，麥克，定價機會很大程度上是由各個社區自行決定的。

We even had one or two communities in the fourth quarter and maybe in January that we actually had Thabo.

我們甚至在第四季度有一兩個社區，也許在一月份我們實際上有塔博。

And so when you're looking at these distinct locations with our move-up and active adult on unique lots, we actually do have pricing power.

因此，當您查看這些不同地點以及我們在獨特地段上的升級和活躍成年人時，我們實際上確實擁有定價權。

As I mentioned to Elizabeth, when I think about what came through the P&L in the fourth quarter, I would expect a small tick up in incentives.

正如我對伊麗莎白所說的那樣，當我考慮第四季度的損益表時，我預計激勵措施會略有增加。

When I look at what we were actually offering on the sales floor, I think where we ended Q4 is generally what our expectations are for 2025.

當我查看我們在銷售現場實際提供的產品時，我認為第四季度結束時的情況基本上是我們對 2025 年的預期。

So yes, our guide does contemplate the environment we're in today, if we see something meaningfully different and rates go up significantly from where we are today, I'm not sure we'll have that captured.

所以是的，我們的指南確實考慮到了我們今天所處的環境，如果我們看到一些有意義的不同，而且利率與今天相比大幅上升，我不確定我們是否能夠捕捉到這一點。

But generally, we feel we're in a pretty good place when we look, as Curt mentioned, the combination of our to-be-builts and the higher-margin opportunity they have as well as what's required in our first timers.

但總體而言，正如 Curt 所提到的那樣，當我們考慮到我們將要建造的項目和它們所擁有的更高利潤機會以及我們首次建造項目的要求時，我們感覺我們處於一個相當不錯的位置。

And maybe I'll wrap that up, Mike, with just one more comment.

麥克，也許我只需要再說一句話就可以結束這個話題了。

And that's just the strength of our buyer groups.

這正是我們的買家群體的力量。

When we look at the move up in the resort lifestyle, we just don't see the same need on the incentive side on rates because they're taking smaller loans.

當我們看到度假村生活方式的提升時，我們只是沒有看到對利率激勵的相同需求，因為他們接受的是較小額度的貸款。

And obviously, within our resort lifestyle, we're still seeing a great deal of cash.

顯然，在我們的度假生活方式中，我們仍然看到大量的現金。

Great.

偉大的。

No, I appreciate all the thoughts there, Sheryl.

不，謝麗爾，我很感激你們所有人的想法。

Maybe secondly, on the SG&A guidance, looking for a little bit of leverage this year.

其次，也許在銷售、一般及行政開支 (SG&A) 指引上，今年尋求一點槓桿。

And I think that's also in contrast perhaps to some of your peers looking for maybe flat to even slightly up SG&A given the tougher environment.

我認為，這也與您的一些同行形成了對比，鑑於更嚴峻的環境，他們希望銷售、一般和行政開支持平甚至略有上漲。

I would think some of it is coming just from the operational leverage with the expectation for some volume growth.

我認為其中一些只是來自於營運槓桿以及對銷售成長的預期。

But I'd also be curious about the marketing dollars and the commissions that you're putting out there, how would you compare just in the fourth quarter versus a year ago, how does that line up?

但我也很好奇，你們投入的行銷費用和佣金，與去年同期相比，第四季的情況如何，情況如何？

You mentioned the NAR settlement.

您提到了 NAR 和解。

But in general, obviously, also just perhaps a slightly more competitive backdrop that would require more investment in this area.

但總體而言，顯然，這也可能只是稍微更具競爭力的背景，需要在該領域進行更多投資。

So how you're thinking about 2025 in terms of those two buckets from a leverage or a year-over-year perspective?

那麼，從槓桿率或同比角度來看，您如何看待 2025 年的這兩個面向？

And maybe I'll take the NAR kind of broker world and ask Curt to pick up on just overall SG&A in total.

也許我會選擇 NAR 類型的經紀人世界，並要求 Curt 了解整體銷售、一般和行政費用總額。

I think what we're seeing, Mike, with NAR is the consumer is just becoming more aware.

麥克，我認為我們看到 NAR 的消費者意識正在增強。

We're getting a lot more calls in advance, calling in to understand what our commission rates are.

我們提前接到了更多電話，詢問我們的佣金率是多少。

I think the consumer understands the game that's being played, and I think that is aiding to in the reduction of co-broke.

我認為消費者了解正在玩的遊戲，我認為這有助於減少共同破壞。

As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, when I look across our virtuals, we are finally really beginning to see some relief in broker commissions.

正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，當我回顧我們的虛擬數據時，我們終於真正開始看到經紀人佣金有所緩解。

I think we saw more than a 10% reduction year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

我認為第四季的同比降幅超過了 10%。

When I looked at January, we went from 67% on our online appointments down to 60%.

當我查看一月份的情況時，我們的線上預約率從 67% 下降到了 60%。

So when we start seeing that come through, all of our virtual tools at that level, it's going to be very meaningful.

因此，當我們開始看到所有虛擬工具都達到這一水平時，這將非常有意義。

You want to pick up just on overall?

您只想了解整體情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Mike, what I would just suggest is that with the step-up in closings and the associated kind of revenue growth with that and the work that our teams have done to continually focus on running an efficient business, we're able to achieve some SG&A leverage going into this year.

麥克，我想說的是，隨著交易量的增加和相關收入的增長，以及我們團隊為持續專注於高效運營業務所做的努力，我們能夠在今年實現一些銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿。

So it's a tremendous focus of the team.

因此這是團隊非常關注的重點。

We're seeing it up and down kind of the overhead structures, whether it's on the sales side and/or even within kind of the Advent kind of side of it as well.

我們看到它的上下結構，無論是在銷售方面，還是在 Advent 方面。

So -- but overall, that's kind of the genesis.

所以 — — 但總的來說，這是一種起源。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks very much and see you next month.

非常感謝，下個月見。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Mike Dahl, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Mike Dahl。

All right.

好的。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I want to stick with kind of the pricing and incentive OpEx.

我想堅持這種定價和激勵營運支出。

So it's interesting kind of testing the market with the broadened base, but at the same time, you're messaging that the net of incentives and cost inflation is going to bring margins down over the course of the year.

因此，以擴大的基礎來測試市場是一種有趣的方式，但同時，你要傳達的訊息是，激勵措施和成本通膨的淨額將在一年內拉低利潤率。

So this kind of -- would you characterize this as pretty modest in aggregate, just take a little bit where you can just to offset some pressures?

所以這種——您是否認為這在總體上是相當溫和的，只是在力所能及的地方採取一點點措施來抵消一些壓力？

How would you characterize kind of the magnitude of the attempted base increases in aggregate?

您如何描述整體增加基地的嘗試的幅度？

Yes.

是的。

If I'm understanding your question correctly, Mike.

如果我正確理解了你的問題，麥克。

I mean it really does come down to the mix of communities in the portfolio.

我的意思是，這確實取決於投資組合中的社區組合。

When I think about the pressures across the business, there's -- it's undeniable that we are seeing more pressure with the first-time buyer and what we need to do to get them into their home.

當我想到整個產業的壓力時，不可否認的是，我們看到首次購屋者面臨更大的壓力，我們需要做些什麼才能讓他們買下自己的房子。

The good news, we've talked about for a number of quarters, that we really personalize the needs of our individual buyers and make sure we put a program that works for them.

好消息是，我們已經談論了好幾個季度，我們確實根據個人買家的需求進行了個性化，並確保制定適合他們的計劃。

Being able to do that and kind of not spreading forward commitments across the portfolio is an absolute advantage.

能夠做到這一點並且不在整個投資組合中分散遠期承諾絕對是一種優勢。

Earlier this year, we actually introduced this new program by build Secura Flex program that assures customers that are not about to close -- aren't buying a completed inventory that we're going to deliver them a rate that's generally 1% under the market rate at the time they close, that gives them more assurance and that nears costly as a forward commitment for someone that's going to close in 45 days.

今年早些時候，我們實際上透過建立 Secura Flex 計劃推出了這項新計劃，該計劃向那些尚未完成交易、沒有購買已完成庫存的客戶保證，我們將為他們提供比他們完成交易時市場價格低 1% 的利率，這給了他們更多的保證，而且對於將在 45 天內完成交易的人來說，這幾乎是一筆昂貴的遠期承諾。

So as you start spreading these different tools, recognizing that 1/3 of our buyers are the first-time buyers with the most expensive incentives.

因此，當您開始推廣這些不同的工具時，請認識到我們的 1/3 的買家是首次購房者，並且享受的優惠政策最為昂貴。

And you compare that to the other tools and then the impact that we see with our resort lifestyle buyers, it gives you, in total, I don't know if I'd call it modest, modest plus.

如果你將它與其他工具進行比較，然後看看我們對度假生活方式買家的影響，總的來說，我不知道我是否可以稱它為適度、適度加分。

But certainly, that along with the land appreciation, we're going to see some margin pressure, but I feel that we're able to kind of stand tall with it in comparison.

但可以肯定的是，隨著土地升值，我們將看到一些利潤壓力，但我覺得相較之下我們能夠保持較高的利潤率。

Yes, I think the comparison is clearly positive.

是的，我認為比較顯然是正面的。

Just one quick follow-up for clarification there.

只需快速跟進一次即可澄清。

And then a second question.

然後是第二個問題。

When you talked about the moderation through the year.

當您談到全年的節制時。

Does your guiding vision you're staying within the '23 to '24 each quarter of the year?

您每年季度的指導願景是否都停留在 23 至 24 年之間？

And then if I could sneak a second question and just on the labor front, any there's obviously some noise in the market around what may or may not happen with various parts of integration?

然後我可以偷偷問第二個問題，僅就勞動力方面而言，市場上是否明顯存在一些關於整合各個部分可能發生或不會發生什麼的情況？

And then are you seeing anything today on your job sites that's noteworthy or how do you kind of balance and mitigate some of those potential issues?

那麼，您今天在工作現場看到什麼值得注意的事情嗎，或者您如何平衡和緩解其中一些潛在問題？

Mike, I'll take the first part of that, and maybe Sheryl can take the, I guess, the latter part on the immigration.

麥克，我將負責第一部分，也許謝麗爾可以負責後半部分，關於移民的問題。

But overall, from a margin guide perspective for 2025, what I would say is right now we're guiding for Q1 and for the full year and not really providing any additional guide on the other quarters over the course of the year at this point in time.

但總體而言，從 2025 年的利潤率指導角度來看，我想說的是，目前我們僅針對第一季和全年提供指導，而目前並沒有真正為今年其他季度提供任何其他指導。

But overall, to your point, we are assuming some moderation over the course of the year and feel very good about our margin for the year overall and staying within that range despite even some of the noise that's out there.

但總體而言，正如您所說，我們假設全年會出現一些緩和，並且對全年整體的利潤率感到非常滿意，儘管存在一些噪音，但利潤率仍保持在這個範圍內。

So Sheryl, I would throw it to you on the immigration front.

謝麗爾，我想把移民方面的問題交給你。

You bet.

當然。

More to come next quarter on the margin, right?

下個季度還會有更多利潤，對嗎？

On immigration, happy to report that we haven't seen anything hit the job site.

關於移民問題，我很高興地報告，我們還沒有看到任何影響工作現場的事情。

Certainly, we've got protocols in place.

當然，我們已經制定了協議。

We, across the business have e-verify protocols.

我們整個企業都有電子驗證協議。

Even though we've seen activity within markets, we have not seen anything hit our job sites.

儘管我們看到了市場內的活動，但我們還沒有看到任何影響我們工作場所的事件。

I'll be honest, Mike, coming into the year had a little bit of fear that we would see some absenteeism of folks that maybe they didn't have a specific issue, but maybe a family member did and they may not show up.

老實說，麥克，進入今年以來，我有點擔心我們會看到一些人缺勤，也許他們沒有特定的原因，但也許是他們的家庭成員有原因，他們可能不會出現。

And we just haven't seen that so far.

但我們至今還沒看到這種情況。

So we'll keep you posted.

我們會及時向您通報最新情況。

But to date, I'd say there's been no disruptions.

但到目前為止，我想說沒有發生任何中斷。

Okay.

好的。

Alright.

好吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

艾林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First one on demand by geography focusing specifically on your central region.

第一個是根據地理位置的需求，特別注意您的中部區域。

I know that's not exclusively Texas, but it has a lot of Texas in it.

我知道這不完全是德州的特色，但其中卻蘊含著許多德州的特色。

And given the softness in that region, you increase in absorption was pretty notable.

考慮到該區域的柔軟度，吸收量的增加非常明顯。

So can you just talk about what is driving your strong performance in that region?

那麼您可以談談是什麼推動了您在該地區的出色表現嗎？

And any specific metros to call out?

有沒有特定的地鐵需要呼叫？

Yes, I certainly can try to help.

是的，我當然可以盡力幫忙。

It's honestly -- I'm happy to report, it's generally across the Board.

說實話——我很高興地告訴大家，這基本上是全面的。

But if I were to have a couple of call outs, if I go back to 2023, we probably all recall the days where Austin was taking some disproportionate pain they had seen some of the highest pace in pricing.

但是，如果我要提出一些建議，如果我回到 2023 年，我們可能都會記得奧斯汀承受著不成比例的痛苦的日子，他們看到了定價速度最快的時期。

And so the year of '23 was a little bit more of a struggle.

因此，23 年是更艱難的一年。

So I'd say part of it was just a tremendous job on our Austin team sales were up nearly 20%.

所以我想說部分原因在於我們奧斯汀團隊的出色工作，銷售額成長了近 20%。

Absorptions were up nearly 30%.

吸收量增加了近30%。

When I look at Houston, another great story, lots to talk about.

當我看到休斯頓時，又有另一個精彩的故事，有很多話要說。

You've heard Erik, Curt and I all talk about the repositioning of our communities to self-developed.

你們已經聽到艾瑞克、科特和我談論了我們的社區重新定位為自我發展。

We've really seen pieces up and discounts down, so good stuff there.

我們確實看到了件數上漲、折扣下降，這是好事。

Dallas, it's a whole new business with kind of outsized growth this year and planned in the coming years, doubling in size.

達拉斯是一家全新的企業，今年其規模實現了超大成長，並計劃在未來幾年內規模擴大一倍。

When I go to the Carolinas, honestly, we're seeing equal strength with community count, sales and closings up and honestly, Sammon Raleigh and Atlanta.

當我去卡羅來納州時，老實說，我們看到社區數量、銷售額和成交量的增長與薩蒙羅利和亞特蘭大一樣強勁。

So it's actually pretty equally weighted across the central, which is very encouraging.

因此，它實際上在中央的權重相當均勻，這是非常令人鼓舞的。

And Sheryl, I might argue relative to submarket positioning.

謝麗爾，我可能會就子市場定位進行爭論。

We've alluded to the fact where we test where we're playing in the market and where we're not.

我們曾經提到過這樣一個事實：我們會測試我們在市場上參與的領域和不參與的領域。

And in each of those circumstances are the supply of resale homes in the places that we're operating are less than the

在每種情況下，我們經營的地方的二手房供應量都低於

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

So I think that helps relative to the resale conditions.

所以我認為這對轉售條件有幫助。

.

。

Great point.

很好的觀點。

Yes, yes, and your performance, we clearly support that as well.

是的，是的，而且我們也明確支持您的表現。

And the second question demand for resort lifestyle buyers.

第二個問題是度假生活風格買家的需求。

It's been stronger in recent quarters.

最近幾季，其表現愈發強勁。

This quarter, it took a bit of a step back.

本季度，該公司略有倒退。

You called out some impacts from the hurricane also some community count close out, if you may have weighed on the number.

您指出了颶風造成的一些影響，並且一些社區的人數也已結束，您可能已經對數字進行了權衡。

Can you talk about your expectations for growth by your segment in 2025?

您能談談對 2025 年您所在部門的成長預期嗎？

And do you think there's a meaningful change in resort lifestyle closings as a percentage of your 2025 -- closings in 2025 versus 2024?

您認為，2025 年度假生活方式關閉情況的百分比（與 2024 年相比）會發生顯著變化嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

No, fair question.

不，這是公平的問題。

Let me start by saying you're absolutely right.

首先我要說你完全正確。

When I look at the fourth quarter, we had a number of impacts.

當我回顧第四季度時，我們發現了許多影響。

So three hurricanes certainly didn't help, even though our communities fared very well.

因此，儘管我們的社區狀況很好，但三場颶風肯定沒有起到什麼幫助作用。

I would tell you, we had a number of days, maybe even qualified as weeks at most -- many of our communities were closed due to prefer hurricanes as well as recovery.

我想說，我們有好幾天，甚至最多好幾週的時間——由於颶風和復原工作，許多社區都關閉了。

At the same time, because of all of that, we also changed the timing of some of our openings.

同時，考慮到所有這些因素，我們也改變了一些開幕式的時間。

So in total, I think we had three that were in put out and three that we pushed openings until early in the year, along with the timing of amenities.

所以總的來說，我想我們有三家酒店已經開業，還有三家酒店推遲到年初開業，同時也安排了配套設施的開業時間。

So I think there was a number of factors.

所以我認為有很多因素。

When I look at kind of the overall performance of esplanade really excited about some of the things across the country and new esplanade that are in the works today at different levels of either underwriting, horizontal development buying the land.

當我看到濱海藝術中心的整體表現時，我對全國各地的一些計畫和新濱海藝術中心感到非常興奮，這些計畫目前正在不同層面上進行，包括承保、橫向開發和購買土地。

But when I look at '25, probably pretty close to '24 from a total penetration, but I would expect -- we'll see if the penetration grows as we grow.

但是當我觀察 25 年時，從總體滲透率來看，可能與 24 年相當接近，但我預計 - 我們會看到滲透率是否會隨著我們的增長而增長。

The penetration may stay relatively similar, but I would tell you that we're adding a number of communities, and I would expect to see a slight uptick in the esplanade penetration and just active adults because that gets a little blurred with our move up.

滲透率可能保持相對相似，但我想告訴你，我們正在增加一些社區，我預計濱海藝術中心的滲透率和活躍的成年人會略有上升，因為隨著我們的上升，這一點變得有點模糊。

So the strength that you're seeing in our move-up dominantly our second move up, I think others the line of them showing up in our more traditional communities compared to just esplanade.

因此，您在我們的上升過程中看到的優勢主要是我們的第二次上升，我認為其他人的上升趨勢出現在我們更傳統的社區中，而不僅僅是濱海藝術中心。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for all the color, and see you guys next month.

感謝你們帶來的所有色彩，下個月再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Look forward to it.

敬請期待。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納（Alan Ratner），澤爾曼及合夥人公司。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Congrats on a great quarter and year.

恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度和一年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

It's really great to see the content there in the challenging environment.

在充滿挑戰的環境中看到這樣的內容真是太棒了。

First question on the margin and incentive topic.

第一個問題是關於利潤和激勵的話題。

Yes.

是的。

Your rate buydown usage is obviously well below a lot of your peers.

您的利率買斷使用率顯然遠低於許多同業。

And I know you referenced Sheryl many times the quality of your land, which you think is really driving your strong margins.

我知道謝麗爾，您多次提到土地的質量，您認為這是推動您利潤豐厚的真正原因。

I'm guessing, even within company-wide though, there are differences from community to community and your use of incentives and your prevalence.

我猜測，即使在整個公司範圍內，不同社區以及激勵措施的使用和普及程度也存在差異。

And I'm hoping to get a little more insight into in the communities where you are offering more aggressive incentives and rate buydowns?

我希望能對你們在哪些社區提供更積極的激勵措施和利率買斷政策有更深入的了解？

Is there a common theme or driver that's contributing to that?

是否存在一個共同的主題或驅動因素導致了這個現象？

Is it more resale competition in those particular areas?

這些特定區域的轉售競爭是否更加激烈？

Is it -- these are entry-level communities and you're going head-to-head with more spec-focused entry-level builders?

是的——這些都是入門級社區，而您將與更多注重規格的入門級建設者進行正面交鋒嗎？

Is there anything you can kind of point to within your own portfolio for the communities that have below average incentives versus above average?

在您的投資組合中，對於激勵機制低於平均水平的社區和高於平均水平的社區，您能指出什麼嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's a really interesting question.

這是一個非常有趣的問題。

And you can imagine, Alan, we've dissected this pretty good.

艾倫，你可以想像，我們已經對此進行了很好的分析。

So I'll start by saying kind of when I look at the rate in the fourth quarter.

因此，我首先要說一下第四季的利率狀況。

It's the absolute coupon rate that we closed people at.

這是我們向人們成交的絕對票面利率。

It's probably the lowest we've seen in over a year.

這可能是我們一年多以來見過的最低水平。

And I think that's just kind of a point of time when we saw where rates were kind of late summer, early fall, where we're using -- and sorry to be redundant, but where we're really using and where we're seeing the most competitive pressure would be within our first-time buyer communities.

我認為那隻是一個時間點，我們看到利率處於夏末秋初的階段，我們正在使用——抱歉說了多餘的話，但我們真正使用的時候以及我們看到最具競爭壓力的時候是在我們的首次購房者群體中。

There is not -- I mean, unfortunately, with those consumers is very, very black and white that what they need to do to be able to qualify, our pre-calls are more challenged.

沒有——我的意思是，不幸的是，對於這些消費者來說，他們需要做什麼才能獲得資格是非常非常黑白分明的，我們的預先電話呼叫面臨更大的挑戰。

They're very, very patient, are payment conscious.

他們非常非常有耐心，並且非常注重付款。

The ratios are a little bit more difficult.

這些比例有點困難。

But the numbers of that first-time buyer, they're still very large, it's a very large penetration because they're trying to get out of what I would say are higher rents today.

但首次購屋者的數量仍然非常龐大，滲透率非常高，因為他們試圖擺脫目前較高的租金。

One of the examples I'll share that I think helps you understand really the benefit we're seeing with our consumers.

我想分享的一個例子可以幫助您真正理解我們為消費者帶來的好處。

That program that I mentioned, Alan, are [Bible secure] Flex program.

艾倫，我提到的那個項目是 [Bible Secure] Flex 項目。

Instead of having to just discount the house to do a very expensive for commitment but we're assisting a consumer guaranteeing that they're going to have a 1% reduction to the market rate.

我們不必僅僅透過折扣房價來做出非常昂貴的承諾，而是幫助消費者保證他們將獲得比市場價格低 1% 的折扣。

Let's say, on an average, let me take a $500,000 house with a 20% down payment, a $400,000 loan.

假設，平均而言，我買一棟價值 50 萬美元的房子，首付 20%，貸款 40 萬美元。

To do that, it's costing me, let's say, approximately $16,000.

為了做到這一點，我大約花了 16,000 美元。

To get that consumer to the same monthly payment, it would cost me $60,000 to $65,000 and price adjustment.

為了讓該消費者支付相同的月供，我需要花費 60,000 至 65,000 美元並進行價格調整。

So when I can use these tools most efficiently to help that consumer and I'm using $16,000 as compared to what we're seeing things in the market today that are 2.99, 3.99, those can cost 700 basis points, 800 basis points, 900 basis points.

因此，當我能夠最有效地使用這些工具來幫助消費者時，我使用的金額為 16,000 美元，而我們目前在市場上看到的利率為 2.99、3.99，這些利率的成本可能為 700 個基點、800 個基點、900 個基點。

We're doing some of these programs at a fraction and we're not taking it off the price, which is also protecting our margin.

我們以極低的價格執行其中一些項目，但我們不會降低價格，這也是為了保護我們的利潤。

But there's not just kind of one special pill here.

但這裡並不只存在一種特殊的藥丸。

It's very personalized to the consumer.

對於消費者來說它非常個人化。

But because we're not spreading these forward commitments across the portfolio, and it is a much smaller, I think, than probably what the industry is recognizing, it's really helping retain our margin strength.

但因為我們沒有將這些遠期承諾分散到整個投資組合中，而且我認為，這個數字比行業認識到的要小得多，所以它確實有助於維持我們的利潤率。

And thematically, Sheryl, I think

從主題上來說，謝麗爾，我認為

--

--

Hit a number of them.

擊中其中的多個。

Alan, you mentioned resales, but I think land supply and land competition remains highest on kind of those first century more tertiary markets.

艾倫，您提到了轉售，但我認為在第一世紀的第三產業市場上，土地供應和土地競爭仍然最為激烈。

And so that's going to create a little pressure through the system.

這會在系統內產生一點壓力。

And then also, as you mentioned recalls, I think the new home competition, as we think about supply is also the heaviest out there because across the US.

而且，正如您所提到的召回，我認為新房競爭，因為我們考慮到供應也是最激烈的，因為遍布美國。

I think the unsold finished new homes per community is 3.1 first time positions versus 2.5% for move up.

我認為每個社區未售出的完工新房數量為首次售出 3.1 套，而上升售出比例為 2.5%。

So that insulates us a little bit across our colocation portfolio.

因此，這可以在一定程度上保護我們的主機託管組合。

Yes.

是的。

It really does.

確實如此。

And Alan, we're not suggesting that with these entry-level buyers that we're not having to spend more to get them.

艾倫，我們並不是說對於這些入門級買家，我們不需要花更多的錢來獲得他們。

It is a very competitive environment as we move out of the kind of the core and move up.

當我們脫離核心並向上發展時，環境競爭非常激烈。

And it's not our whole portfolio.

這並不是我們的全部投資組合。

The diversity of our portfolio is truly the benefit that you're seeing.

我們的產品組合的多樣性確實是您所看到的好處。

Got it.

知道了。

That's all really helpful and helps frame, I think the strength you guys are seeing compared to others.

這一切都非常有幫助，並有助於建立框架，我認為與其他人相比，你們看到了優勢。

Second question I had, maybe pivoting to the land market.

我的第二個問題是，也許轉向土地市場。

You mentioned expectation for 7%, lot price inflation flowing through the P&L this year.

您提到今年的批次價格通膨將影響損益表的 7%。

Obviously, that's a function of what we were seeing in the land market a couple of years ago.

顯然，這是我們幾年前在土地市場看到的情況的結果。

I'm curious if you've seen -- we've heard a little bit of this, a little chatter of some loosening or softening, I guess, in land prices, maybe some more willingness for land owners to renegotiate current option contracts.

我很好奇您是否看到過——我們聽到一些這方面的內容，我想，有些傳言稱土地價格會有所放鬆或軟化，也許土地所有者更願意重新談判現有的期權合約。

And that wasn't the case a couple of years ago when builder margins were 30% plus, but now with some builders kind of getting back down to more normalized levels, I think it has to enter the conversation.

幾年前並非如此，當時建築商的利潤率超過 30%，但現在隨著一些建築商的利潤率逐漸回落到更正常的水平，我認為這必須納入討論範圍。

So I'm curious if you've had any of those conversations with your land sellers or the folks kind of holding your contracts and what your general view is of land prices going forward here over the next couple of years?

所以我很好奇，您是否與土地賣家或持有您合約的人進行過這樣的對話，以及您對未來幾年土地價格的總體看法是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Alan, it's Erik.

艾倫，我是艾瑞克。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Yes, to your point, I think your guys' research and others would suggest that third quarter, fourth quarter, the demand for land categorically stepped down just a little bit.

是的，正如您所說，我認為您的研究和其他人的研究都會表明，第三季度和第四季度，對土地的需求明顯下降了一點。

That doesn't mean it's easy.

但這並不意味著這很容易。

It's always hard out there.

外面的世界總是很艱難。

But I do think it means, to your point, that we've got a little bit more flexibility in terms of deal structure.

但我確實認為，正如你所說，這意味著我們在交易結構方面擁有更多的靈活性。

So that's where we're seeing it as we really work to continue to increase our percent control to the OBS create greater efficiency in the balance sheet and increase our returns.

所以，我們看到了這一點，我們確實在努力繼續提高對 OBS 的百分比控制，從而提高資產負債表的效率並增加我們的回報。

That is front and center of all of our operators' minds to make sure that we're structuring deals in an efficient way.

這是我們所有營運商關注的焦點，以確保我們以有效的方式建立交易。

So I think that's where we're seeing it, not necessarily an absolute price but flexibility.

所以我認為我們看到的不一定是絕對價格，而是彈性。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, Erik.

謝謝，埃里克。

Appreciate it, guys.

感謝你們，夥計們。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

Appreciate the times.

珍惜時光。

Alan and Trevor stole all my questions, but I have one follow-up on Alan's, and I'd like to ask about land banking.

艾倫和特雷弗竊取了我所有的問題，但我對艾倫的問題有一個後續問題，我想問一下有關土地銀行的問題。

And well, I missed that -- they're great questions.

嗯，我錯過了——這些都是很好的問題。

I want to add about land banking costs.

我想補充一下土地儲備成本。

And so my understanding at least out there is the amount of capital available for land banking continues to be significant.

因此，我的理解至少是，可用於土地儲備的資本數量仍然很大。

But I'm curious as to whether or not your expectation is that the cost of said land banking, which is expensive, will begin to moderate too.

但我很好奇，您是否預期上述昂貴的土地儲備成本也將開始下降。

And part of what I'm curious about is, as you look at your change in option mix, I'm assuming the vast majority of that change is related to land banking deals as opposed to sort of finished lot option contracts or farmer options.

我感到好奇的一點是，當您查看選擇權組合的變化時，我認為絕大多數變化與土地銀行交易有關，而不是成品地塊選擇權合約或農民選擇權。

Is there a particular sort of trade-off that you look for in terms of risk versus takes versus option upfront?

在風險、承擔以及預付選擇權方面，您是否尋求某種特殊的權衡？

And what do you think the trade-off is between gross margin impact and return on equity impact if you can sort of make it mathematical.

如果您能將其數學化，您認為毛利率影響和股本回報率影響之間的權衡是什麼。

And that's all I have.

這就是我所擁有的一切。

Thanks all.

謝謝大家。

That was a short one.

那是一個簡短的故事。

Now, you be (inaudible) No, appreciate it.

現在，你會（聽不清楚）不，要感激它。

I'll start with kind of appetite and access, yes, I think there's been a number of well-heeled players that have been around a long time.

我先從興趣和管道開始說，是的，我認為已經有很多富有的參與者存在很久了。

And I think that, that role has evolved positively in terms of risk mitigation.

我認為，這一角色在降低風險方面已經發揮了積極作用。

And there's been new entrants.

並且已經有新進入者了。

And so I would say the demand for it really is more of a credit positioned vehicle has been really good and has actually brought down the cost.

因此，我想說，對它的需求實際上更像是一種信貸定位工具，這種需求一直很好，而且實際上降低了成本。

And so when we started doing a couple of years ago, we were able to find a very attractive interest rate and to your point, trade-off relative to gross margin, and I'll come back to that.

因此，當我們幾年前開始做這件事時，我們能夠找到一個非常有吸引力的利率，正如您所說，相對於毛利率的權衡，我稍後會回到這個問題上。

Rates popped up a little bit.

利率略有上升。

We sidestepped and we're kind of fully back in it.

我們避開了它，但又完全回到了它。

And I think it's a sustainable systemic tool for us to use.

我認為這是我們可以使用的一個可持續的系統工具。

In terms of the trade-off, just in terms of focusing on gross margin, our last larger facility, we modelled to be about 197 basis points gross margin hit for a 750 basis points impact to return.

就權衡而言，僅就毛利率而言，我們上一個較大的工廠，我們模擬的毛利率將受到約 197 個基點的衝擊，而回報將受到 750 個基點的影響。

So kind of a 3.8x trade for that.

因此這相當於 3.8 倍的交易。

And then use of tools, it's going to be an important one for us.

然後使用工具，這對我們來說很重要。

But I would also say that seller financing has been actually our biggest tool in the past and remains a strong tool for us.

但我還要說，賣方融資實際上是我們過去最大的工具，並且仍然是我們的強大工具。

So there is a fair number.

因此，這個數字是相當可觀的。

We've got joint ventures joint development agreements, option takedown, seller financing and land banking, all to assist us to continue to increase our level of control over time.

我們擁有合資企業聯合開發協議、選擇權收購、賣方融資和土地儲備，所有這些都可以幫助我們隨著時間的推移不斷提高我們的控制水平。

I Appreciate the help.

我很感激你的幫忙。

Thanks all.

謝謝大家。

See you next month.

下個月見。

Look forward to it.

敬請期待。

Buck Horne, Raymond James.

巴克霍恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey.

嘿。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Going back to the land and the lot cost inflation question that was earlier there.

回到先前的土地和地塊成本通膨問題。

And just ways to maybe mitigate some of those costs.

也許有一些方法可以減輕部分成本。

I'm just wondering if you think about leaning into just a more heavy mix of self-development lots.

我只是想知道您是否考慮過更加重視自我發展。

Or do you think in this year ahead or forward, you'll put more emphasis on cell developments?

或者您認為在今年或以後，您會更加重視電池開發嗎？

Or conversely, are you starting to see more finished lots on the ground that are already fully developed at more reasonable prices that could help mitigate the cost inflation?

或者相反，您是否開始看到更多已經完全開發的地塊，並且價格更合理，從而有助於緩解成本通膨？

Hi, Buck, it's Erik, and I'll take that.

嗨，巴克，我是艾瑞克，我接這個電話。

Yes, I would say that we've experienced a pretty significant pivot over the last 5-plus years relative to finding finish likely and having to sell up.

是的，我想說，在過去 5 年多的時間裡，我們經歷了一個相當重大的轉折點，即找到完成的可能性並不得不出售。

Fortunately, that's been a core competence of ours.

幸運的是，這一直是我們的核心競爭力。

And I would say a good 85% to 90%, give or take, are coming through the system, our raw and self-developed.

我想說，大約 85% 到 90% 都是透過系統獲得的，是我們原始的和自行開發的。

Now the important follow-up on that is that we, almost in every instance, look for ways to mitigate that coal exposure by tying a tool to it, a financial tool.

現在，重要的後續行動是，我們幾乎在每種情況下，都會透過將一種工具（一種金融工具）與煤炭風險掛鉤來尋找減輕煤炭風險的方法。

So we are not finding a plethora of finished lots out there.

因此，我們並沒有發現大量的成品。

We are used to self-developing and we're kind of looking at that going forward from today as well.

我們已經習慣了自我發展，從今天起也將專注於自我發展。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just quickly going back to the Yardley business, if you got a minute to talk about single-family rentals here.

然後我們快速回到雅德利的業務上，如果你有時間談論這裡的單戶住宅租賃。

Just curious kind of what you saw going into year-end in terms of the lease-up rates and the absorption pace of the build for rent communities?

只是好奇，您看到年底的租賃率和租賃社區的吸收速度如何？

Is it getting more or less competitive with the amount of supply that's out there?

與現有的供應量相比，它的競爭力是增強了還是減弱了？

And just any other thoughts on investor interest and pricing of those assets?

對於投資者的興趣和這些資產的定價還有其他看法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Another good question, Buck.

又一個好問題，巴克。

So the two assets that we mentioned that we sold, those ran at a 14 to 15 a month lease rate through their duration, which was just a little bit under what we originally modelled.

因此，我們提到的出售的兩項資產在其整個期限內的租賃價格為每月 14 到 15 美元，略低於我們最初的預測。

And we have felt a little bit of the multifamily.

我們也感受到了一點多戶家庭的氣氛。

But again, with these horizontal apartment kind of niche play, there is less competition as we think about the specific renter profile.

但是，對於這些橫向公寓類型的利基市場，當我們考慮特定的租戶概況時，競爭就會減少。

Oftentimes, we're getting our renters walking across the street from the garden-style apartment and kind of choosing the horizontal apartment app.

我們經常看到租戶走過花園式公寓的街道並選擇橫向公寓應用程式。

So we're watching the multifamily supply that has come on '24 and I think through '25, but not as impactful as you might have otherwise expected.

因此，我們正在關注24年以及25年的多戶型住宅供應情況，但其影響力可能不如你預期的那麼大。

You mean early in the year, Erik, we have about 11 communities that are in lease today and they're actually

艾瑞克，你是說今年年初，我們目前有大約 11 個社區處於租賃狀態，它們實際上

--

--

Yes.

是的。

And to your point, the last three weeks, four weeks, we've been running in the 40 plus for that particular portfolio.

正如您所說，在過去的三週、四周裡，我們已經為該特定的投資組合運行了 40 多個。

So holding up well.

所以堅持得很好。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Congrats.

恭喜。

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

住房研究中心亞歷克斯·巴倫 (Alex Barron) 說。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I'm not sure if I missed it or if you mentioned it, but can you elaborate on the other income line item, the minus $47 million versus $80 million a year ago.

我不確定我是否錯過了或您是否提到過，但您能否詳細說明其他收入項目，即負 4700 萬美元，而一年前為 8000 萬美元。

What was included in that?

那其中包括了什麼？

Hi, Alex, this is Curt.

你好，Alex，我是 Curt。

I'll take that.

我接受。

Yes, there's a couple of things in there.

是的，裡面有幾件事。

Number one would be there was a legal reserve set up for -- in Q4.

第一是第四季設立法定儲備金。

The court awarded the plaintiffs final attorney fee for the Solivita case that was ruled on back in 2023.

法院判決原告獲得 2023 年裁決的 Solivita 案的最終律師費。

So we're seeing about a $17 million incremental amount there being recorded to other income and expense.

因此，我們看到約有 1700 萬美元的增量金額被記錄到其他收入和支出。

There's also some pre-acquisition write-off costs for projects that we're no longer pursuing.

對於我們不再進行的項目，還有一些收購前註銷成本。

That's about, in total, about $6.5 million for the quarter.

本季總計約 650 萬美元。

And then the last main item that I would say is in other income expense is an increase in unrealized losses for prior policy periods in our captive insurance company that we refer to as

然後我要說的最後一個主要項目是其他收入支出，即我們自保保險公司前期保單期間未實現損失的增加，我們稱之為

[Beneva].

[貝內特]。

And that was like, I think that's, what, roughly $17 million for the quarter as well.

我認為本季的收入也大約是 1700 萬美元。

So those are the big components of what is coming through other income and expense for the quarter.

這些都是本季其他收入和支出的主要組成部分。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then likewise, what drove the increase in the amenity line item versus previous quarters?

那麼，與前幾季相比，是什麼推動了便利設施專案的成長呢？

And I guess, along those lines, where do you guys account for the sale of the [Yardley] portfolio?

我想，按照這個思路，你們是如何解釋 [Yardley] 投資組合出售的呢？

.

。

Yes.

是的。

The sale of the Yardley assets come through amenity revenue.

雅德利資產的出售收入來自娛樂設施收入。

And so that's what you're seeing there is the two sales.

這就是您所看到的兩筆銷售。

We had one sale in Dallas and one in Phoenix that contributed to the revenue component to that.

我們在達拉斯和菲尼克斯各有一筆銷售，這為其收入做出了貢獻。

And then for the quarter, what we're also doing is we had a charge on the remaining last multifam unities from the William Lyon acquisition to the tune of just under $18 million that is running through what is called amenity and other expense in cost of revenue.

就本季而言，我們還對 William Lyon 收購案中剩餘的最後幾套多戶型公寓收取了近 1800 萬美元的費用，這些費用透過所謂的便利設施和收入成本中的其他費用來支出。

Okay.

好的。

So all these are onetime nature type things.

所以，所有這些都是一次性的自然事物。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

That's correct.

沒錯。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We currently have no further questions.

目前我們沒有其他問題。

I'd like to hand back to Sheryl Palmer for any closing remarks.

我想將最後發言交還給謝麗爾·帕爾默 (Sheryl Palmer)。

Well, thank you so much for joining us today.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。

Look forward to seeing many of you next month at our Investor Day.

期待下個月在投資者日上見到大家。

Stay well.

保持健康。

So we conclude today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

We'd like to thank everyone for joining.

我們感謝大家的加入。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路了。