Talen Energy Corp (TLN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Talen Energy Corporation third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加 Talen Energy Corporation 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作人員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would like now to turn the conference over to Sergio Castro, Vice President and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給副總裁兼財務主管塞爾吉奧·卡斯特羅。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle. Welcome to Talen Energy's third-quarter 2025 conference call. Speaking today are Chief Executive Officer, Mac McFarland; and Chief Financial Officer, Terry Nutt. They are joined by other Talen senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

謝謝你，米歇爾。歡迎參加 Talen Energy 2025 年第三季電話會議。今天發言的是執行長麥克·麥克法蘭和財務長特里·納特。如有需要，Talen 的其他高階主管將在今天電話會議的第二部分與他們會合，回答問題。

We issued our earnings release this afternoon, along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website, talenenergy.com. Today, we are making some forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions. Actual results could differ due to risk factors and other considerations described in our financial disclosures and other SEC filings.

今天下午我們發布了盈利報告及演示文稿，所有內容均可在公司網站talenenergy.com的投資者關係專欄中找到。今天，我們將根據目前的預期和假設做出一些前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能因風險因素以及我們在財務揭露和其他提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的其他因素而有所不同。

Today's discussion also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided information reconciling our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release and the appendix of our presentation.

今天的討論也包括對某些非GAAP財務指標的提及。我們在獲利報告和簡報的附錄中提供了將我們的非GAAP指標與最直接可比較的GAAP指標進行調節的資訊。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mac.

接下來，我將把通話交給 Mac。

Great. Thanks, Sergio, and welcome, everyone, to today's call. We appreciate your ongoing interest in Talen. Before we review the quarter, I'd like to start with where we are as Talen and talk about the broader landscape as we implement the Talen flywheel. Sitting here today, the overall market continues in the same trajectory as we've discussed in prior calls.

偉大的。謝謝塞爾吉奧，也歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議。感謝您一直以來對Talen的關注。在回顧本季之前，我想先談談Talen目前的狀況，並談談我們在實施Talen飛輪計畫時所面臨的更廣泛的情況。今天，整體市場走勢與我們先前電話會議中討論的趨勢一致。

AI and data center capital budgets continue to impress and expand. It seems like every day, there is another announcement, investment or idea floated on how to power growing data center demand. Demand for power keeps coming, and we will need an all-of-the-above approach to solve the growth from the supply side.

人工智慧和資料中心的資本預算持續成長，令人印象深刻。似乎每天都會有關於如何滿足日益增長的資料中心需求的公告、投資或想法提出。電力需求持續成長，我們需要採取全面全面的方法來解決供應方面的成長問題。

Pennsylvania continues to drive economic growth through data center development and remains a pro-business place to invest. Governor Shapiro, the Pennsylvania PUC, and the local communities have embraced these investments and recognize the advantages Pennsylvania brings to developers, including speed to market, while at the same time, they recognize the need to properly allocate cost, build new generation, and keep residential rates in check. We are doing our part by evaluating options to solve short-term capacity questions and longer-term resource adequacy.

賓州透過資料中心發展持續推動經濟成長，仍然是一個有利於企業投資的地區。賓州州長夏皮羅、賓州公共事業委員會和當地社區都接受了這些投資，並認識到賓州為開發商帶來的優勢，包括快速上市；同時，他們也意識到需要合理分配成本、建造新一代能源設施並控制住宅價格。我們正在盡自己的一份力，評估各種方案，以解決短期產能問題和長期資源充足性問題。

It's why we recently signed an MOU with Eos Energy to partner on battery development in Pennsylvania and PJM using Pennsylvania manufactured batteries. As I've said in the past, for the next five years, we are going to need to solve a capacity issue, not necessarily an energy issue, and we believe batteries and peaking plants can solve this need much more readily than CCGTs and at overall lower cost. CCGTs will be needed, too, and we will look to build them in collaboration with the right partners and customers, but that is further off on the horizon. And while I have focused on Pennsylvania in these comments, we continue to be excited about the prospects in Ohio, given load there already exists, but more on that in the coming quarters.

這就是為什麼我們最近與 Eos Energy 簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，合作在賓州開發電池，並使用賓州製造的電池與 PJM 合作。正如我過去所說，未來五年，我們需要解決的是容量問題，而不是能源問題。我們相信，與燃氣渦輪機聯合循環發電廠相比，電池和尖峰電廠能夠更輕鬆地解決這項需求，而且整體成本更低。我們也需要聯合循環燃氣渦輪機，我們將尋求與合適的合作夥伴和客戶合作建造它們，但這還需要一段時間才能實現。雖然我在這些評論中主要關注的是賓州，但我們仍然對俄亥俄州的前景感到興奮，因為那裡已經存在一定的電力負荷，但關於這一點，我們將在接下來的幾個季度中詳細說明。

At Talen, we have a number of things in flight. First, we continue to execute under our existing agreements with AWS and the Susquehanna site continues to be built at an amazing speed and has been electrified.

在Talen，我們有很多項目正在進行中。首先，我們繼續履行與 AWS 的現有協議，Susquehanna 站點繼續以驚人的速度建設，並且已經實現了電氣化。

Second, we are working diligently to close the Freedom and Guernsey acquisitions, which will add to our baseload fleet and to our large load contracting strategy. As you know, we refiled our HSR application at the Department of Justice for a second time, restarting the 30-day time line, which now runs through November 17. We believe it was prudent to give the DOJ additional time because the transaction fails zero market power screens.

其次，我們正在努力完成對 Freedom 和 Guernsey 的收購，這將增加我們的基本貨運船隊和我們的大宗貨運合約策略。如您所知，我們第二次向司法部重新提交了 HSR 申請，重新開始 30 天的期限，該期限現在將持續到 11 月 17 日。我們認為給予司法部更多時間是審慎的做法，因為該交易未能通過零市場力量篩選。

We remain confident that we will close these acquisitions. I do note that this might take a little longer and bleed into Q1 of 2026. That said, we are pressing to get these deals closed as soon as possible and might be able to get them done as early as late this year. We are optimistic that FERC can then act on our 203 filings in short order. In addition to pushing our regulatory approvals or pushing them along, we also recently closed on a highly successful financing package.

我們仍然有信心完成這些收購。我注意到這可能需要更長時間，可能會延續到 2026 年第一季。也就是說，我們正在努力盡快完成這些交易，最快可能在今年底就能完成。我們樂觀地認為，聯邦能源監管委員會（FERC）可以很快對我們的 203 號文件採取行動。除了推動監管審批或加快審批進程外，我們最近還完成了一項非常成功的融資方案。

And lastly, with respect to the acquisitions, Dale and the fossil team are well underway on the planning to add both Freedom and Guernsey to the fleet, and Chris and the commercial team are ready to fold them into the portfolio when they can. We are truly excited to get going with these assets and want to thank the Caithness team on the professional transition to date.

最後，關於收購方面，戴爾和化石燃料團隊正在積極籌劃將「自由號」和「格恩西號」加入船隊，克里斯和商業團隊也已做好準備，在條件允許時將它們納入投資組合。我們非常高興能夠開始使用這些資產，並感謝凱斯內斯團隊迄今為止在專業過渡方面所做的貢獻。

Third, we continue to pursue additions to the flywheel through large load contracts and additional megawatts for the portfolio. On the contracting side, there has been a fair amount of noise in the markets about our ability to contract, when we might be able to contract, how we might do so, and how we will manage the so-called gas risk. Trust me, when we hear all of that, we just go about our business. We built a good comprehensive playbook with the Amazon Susquehanna contract and our focus currently on execution.

第三，我們將繼續透過大型負載合約和增加投資組合的兆瓦容量來增加飛輪效應。在合約方面，市場上出現了相當多的關於我們簽訂合約的能力、我們何時能夠簽訂合約、我們如何簽訂合約以及我們將如何管理所謂的天然氣風險的噪音。相信我，當我們聽到這些話的時候，我們只會繼續做自己的事。我們根據與亞馬遜 Susquehanna 的合約制定了一套完善的行動方案，目前我們的重點是執行。

Our strategy remains the same. Our efforts have only been redoubled and our focus has sharpened and our commercial learnings continue to expand. We have been working on the next thing since we signed the first AWS contract in early 2024 and gained a lot of commercial knowledge by changing that contract to front of the meter. Refiling of our HSR on Freedom and Guernsey does not change our path.

我們的策略保持不變。我們加倍努力，更專注，商業經驗也不斷累積。自 2024 年初簽署第一份 AWS 合約以來，我們一直在研究下一步計劃，並透過將該合約改為按表計費模式獲得了大量的商業知識。重新提交我們在自由大道和格恩西島的高鐵申請並不會改變我們的方向。

Let me be more explicit as to why the exact closing of these deals doesn't impact our near-term strategy. In the rest of the portfolio, excluding Freedom and Guernsey, we have approximately 4 gigawatts of gas-fired generation between Montour, Lower Mount Bethel, and Martins Creek as well as 300 megawatts of carbon-free power at Susquehanna remaining. Our efforts at Montour continue, and I'm sure you have seen that we are working on zoning and permitting at the site, which, by the way, if you were with us back in 2023, was the same activity we were undertaking at Susquehanna then.

讓我更明確地解釋一下，為什麼這些交易的具體完成不會影響我們的近期策略。除 Freedom 和 Guernsey 外，其餘投資組合中，我們在 Montour、Lower Mount Bethel 和 Martins Creek 之間擁有約 4 吉瓦的燃氣發電裝置容量，在 Susquehanna 還擁有 300 兆瓦的無碳電力。我們在蒙圖爾的努力仍在繼續，我相信你們已經看到我們正在進行該地點的規劃和許可工作，順便說一句，如果你在 2023 年就關注我們，就會知道我們當時在薩斯奎哈納也從事著同樣​​的工作。

All of this activity goes on, all well before we close the acquisitions. And as I've said, we remain confident that we will still close the acquisitions in short order. So timing of closing of Freedom and Guernsey is really irrelevant to our contracting power strategy.

所有這些活動都在收購完成之前就已經開始了。正如我所說，我們仍然有信心在短期內完成收購。因此，關閉自由港和格恩西島的時機與我們的合約權力策略實際上無關。

We feel good about our ability to look at further expansion of the portfolio through acquisitions and continue to explore free cash flow accretive deals. And we are constantly challenging ourselves to reshape the portfolio. And I'm sure someone will ask when we might expect to announce the next part of the flywheel. And I'll say the same thing that we always say, which frankly is next to nothing. You'll be the first to know when we're done.

我們有信心透過收購進一步擴大投資組合，並持續探索能夠增加自由現金流的交易。我們不斷挑戰自我，重塑投資組合。我相信肯定會有人問，我們什麼時候會公佈飛輪的下一部分。我會說我們一直說的那句話，坦白說，那就是幾乎沒什麼好說的。完成後我們會第一時間通知您。

We want the right deals, not any deals and not on anyone else's timeline. In the meantime, 2026 is setting up well. We are reaffirming '26 guidance, and we are starting to see forwards tick up. Gas is up, sparks are expanding, and load continues to be strong; all factors that continue to impact commercial positioning on long-term transactions. Terry and Chris will walk you through what we are seeing in the markets in just a bit.

我們想要的是合適的交易，而不是任何交易，也不想按照別人的時間表來安排。同時，2026 年的情況一片大好。我們重申 2026 年的業績指引，並且我們開始看到業績有所改善。天然氣價格上漲，火花四濺，負載持續強勁；所有這些因素都繼續影響長期交易中的商業定位。特里和克里斯稍後會帶您了解我們目前在市場上看到的情況。

Moving to the present and Q3 on slide 2. As we said during our Investor Day call, we saw limited volatility and limited opportunity to capture incremental value in the third quarter, and the quarter was a little light of our internal expectations. But we already knew that and acknowledge that in September at our Investor Day.

接下來進入正題，並討論投影片 2 中的 Q3。正如我們在投資者日電話會議上所說，我們看到第三季度市場波動有限，獲取增量價值的機會也有限，而且該季度業績略低於我們的內部預期。但我們早就知道這一點，並在9月的投資人日上承認了這一點。

Going into the summer, we were looking to regain some of the lost opportunity from the spring outage at Susquehanna, but it just didn't materialize. Both July and August experienced fewer peak load days when compared to June, and we experienced incremental forest outages as our fleet continues to run with higher capacity factors and longer run times between maintenance. Terry will provide a few more details on this later.

進入夏季，我們原本希望能彌補薩斯奎哈納河春季停水造成的損失，但事與願違。與 6 月相比，7 月和 8 月的高峰負載天數都減少了，而且由於我們的車隊繼續以更高的容量係數運行，維護間隔時間也更長，因此我們經歷了森林停駛的增加。特里稍後會提供更多細節。

During the quarter, we delivered $363 million of adjusted EBITDA and $223 million of adjusted free cash flow. So far, in Q4, things are a bit better given the market move up, but we are still projecting to be at the lower end of our guidance range as we previously stated at that September Investor Day.

本季度，我們實現了 3.63 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 2.23 億美元的調整後自由現金流。到目前為止，第四季度的情況有所好轉，因為市場有所上漲，但我們仍然預計業績將處於我們先前在9月份投資者日上所預測的下限。

Before I turn this over, I'd like to thank our entire Talen team for their hard work and dedication, and I'm happy to let you know that we have reached a five-year extension of our Local 1600 contract with the IBEW. So a special thanks to Rusty and the IBEW leadership team. At Talen, we are powering the future together.

在把這個交接給你們之前，我想感謝我們整個 Talen 團隊的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，並且我很高興地告訴大家，我們已經與 IBEW 達成了 Local 1600 合約的五年延期協議。所以要特別感謝Rusty和IBEW領導團隊。在 Talen，我們攜手共創未來。

With that, Terry?

就這樣，特里？

Thank you, Mac, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning now to slide 3. Mac covered the regulatory process, but let me provide an update on the financing of Freedom and Guernsey. Last month, we successfully executed several financing transactions at attractive rates to fully fund the acquisitions, including $2.7 billion of senior unsecured notes and a $1.2 billion senior secured term loan that contains a delayed draw feature. The pricing we received exceeded our initial expectations as the credit market continues to demonstrate demand for Talen paper.

謝謝你，麥克，大家下午好。現在請看第三張投影片。Mac 介紹了監管流程，但讓我來更新一下 Freedom 和 Guernsey 的融資情況。上個月，我們以優惠的利率成功完成了幾筆融資交易，為收購提供了充足的資金，其中包括 27 億美元的高級無擔保票據和 12 億美元的高級擔保定期貸款（包含延期提取條款）。由於信用市場持續對 Talen 紙張表現出需求，我們收到的定價超出了我們最初的預期。

We also received commitments from our bank group to increase our existing revolving credit facility to $900 million and to increase our existing letter of credit facility to $1.1 billion, while also extending the LC maturity date by one year to December 2027, all to further support the impact of the acquisitions on the financial operations of the business. Congratulations to the treasury and legal teams for a successful set of transactions. We are currently earning interest on the senior unsecured note proceeds and will not draw on the term loan until the closing of either the Freedom or Guernsey acquisition.

我們也從銀行集團獲得了承諾，將我們現有的循環信貸額度增加到 9 億美元，將我們現有的信用證額度增加到 11 億美元，同時將信用證到期日延長一年至 2027 年 12 月，所有這些都是為了進一步支持收購對公司財務運營的影響。恭喜財務部和法務部成功完成一系列交易。我們目前正在從優先無擔保票據收益中賺取利息，在 Freedom 或 Guernsey 收購完成之前，我們不會動用定期貸款。

Turning to slide 4. As Mac said earlier, nothing has changed thematically. The underlying fundamentals for Talen's value proposition remains strong. Macro fundamentals and AI demand remain intact. Last week, we continued to observe the trend of hyperscalers seeing tremendous growth in their cloud and AI businesses, which in turn has led them to continuing to raise or affirm their capital investment plans.

翻到第4張投影片。正如麥克之前所說，主題上沒有任何變化。Talen的價值主張的基本面依然強勁。宏觀基本面和人工智慧需求依然保持穩定。上週，我們繼續觀察到超大規模資料中心營運商的雲端運算和人工智慧業務實現了巨大成長，這反過來又促使他們繼續增加或確認其資本投資計畫。

As you can see in the chart on the upper left, the projected growth of spend from hyperscalers continues in earnest with total CapEx projected to be $700 billion in 2027. Not only is the capital commitment growing, but the acceleration of demand for power continues. For example, Amazon noted on their earnings call last week that they have accelerated capacity additions over the past 12 months by adding 3.8 gigawatts and expect to add over another 1 gigawatt in the upcoming fourth quarter. Further, they expect to double their overall capacity by 2027, which would add in excess of 10 gigawatts of capacity in North America alone.

從左上角的圖表可以看出，超大規模資料中心營運商的支出預計將繼續穩定成長，到 2027 年，資本支出總額預計將達到 7,000 億美元。不僅資本投入在成長，電力需求也在加速成長。例如，亞馬遜在上週的財報電話會議上指出，在過去 12 個月裡，他們加快了產能擴張，新增了 3.8 吉瓦，並預計在即將到來的第四季再增加 1 吉瓦以上。此外，他們預計到 2027 年將總產能翻一番，光在北美地區就將增加超過 10 吉瓦的產能。

We see significant load growth coming over the next decade from hyperscalers as well as reshoring of manufacturing and the ongoing electrification of the economy. But what about the current load conditions? Q3 2025 provides a clear example of the change in the load growth in the PJM market. Overall, Q3 weather was flat compared to the same period in 2024 as measured by cooling degree days. However, the average electricity demand was higher.

預計未來十年，超大規模資料中心、製造業回流以及經濟的持續電氣化將帶來顯著的負載成長。但目前的負載情況如何呢？2025 年第三季清楚展現了 PJM 市場負荷成長的變化。整體而言，第三季的天氣與 2024 年同期相比持平，以冷氣度日數衡量。然而，平均用電量較高。

During the quarter, we saw approximately 3.4% of incremental power deliveries on a weather-adjusted basis in PJM when compared to the same period in 2024, a clear sign of demand growth in the market that is expected to continue. Furthermore, for the first time in over a decade, we experienced two of the top peak demand days at PJM during the heat event in June. These two demand peaks registered in at the third and fourth highest summer peak demand readings in the history of the market, further evidence of demand growth.

本季度，PJM 的電力供應量經天氣調整後比 2024 年同期增長了約 3.4%，這清楚地表明市場需求正在增長，預計這種增長勢頭將持續下去。此外，在六月的熱浪天氣期間，PJM 經歷了十多年來首次兩個高峰需求日。這兩個需求高峰分別位居該市場歷史上夏季高峰需求讀數的第三和第四高，進一步證明了需求的成長。

Let me now turn it over to Chris to cover some additional market fundamentals on slide 5.

現在我把麥克風交給克里斯，讓他在第5張幻燈片上講解一些額外的市場基本面。

Thanks, Terry. This quarter, while relatively uneventful from a dispatch and weather perspective, did help validate our driving thesis that data load is here and more is coming. As Terry mentioned prior, below the surface, incremental load is beginning to manifest. We are seeing relative price strength in the face of very benign weather conditions. As cash markets are starting to feel this tightening, so too are the forwards.

謝謝你，特里。本季雖然從調度和天氣角度來看相對平靜，但確實有助於驗證我們的驅動論點，即數據負載已經到來，未來還會更多。正如 Terry 先前所提到的，在表面之下，逐漸增加的負荷開始顯現。在天氣條件非常有利的情況下，我們看到價格相對走強。隨著現貨市場開始感受到這種收緊趨勢，遠期市場也是如此。

Looking at the chart on the right, you can see the market response over the past couple of weeks. And as you can see further, it has been a recent phenomenon, but one that we have been anticipating. Power is up, sparks are widening, and it remains a good time to be in power. And further, a really good time to be an IPP focused on being an IPP.

從右側的圖表可以看出過去幾週的市場反應。而且正如你所看到的，這是一種最近才出現的現象，但我們一直在期待它的發生。權力上升，火花四濺，現在仍然是掌權的好時機。此外，現在正是成為專注於成為獨立發電企業的獨立發電企業的絕佳時機。

Our native position is long several thousand megawatts of generation spread across the supply stack. Outside of the PTC and the data PPA, we have no other natural hedges. This informs our commercial strategy and allows us to participate meaningfully when we take a view on the market. And you can reference the appendix in back for those specific percentages. Similar to the forward, PJM capacity markets have been reflective of these tightening fundamentals as well, expressed through the all-time high BRA clears.

我們擁有數千兆瓦的發電裝置容量，分佈在整個供應體系中。除了 PTC 和數據 PPA 之外，我們沒有其他天然對沖手段。這為我們的商業策略提供了依據，使我們能夠在對市場做出判斷時做出有意義的貢獻。具體百分比可參考書後的附錄。與遠期市場類似，PJM 容量市場也反映了這些收緊的基本面，BRA 清算量創歷史新高。

PJM shrinking reserve margins continue to be a topic of discussion, both inside and outside of the RTO. PJM and the DOE have flagged potential supply shortfalls by 2030 if the trend isn't reversed. In addition to needing new supply resources, PJM's existing asset base will have to be relied on heavily to ensure grid reliability moving forward.

PJM 儲備金率不斷下降的問題一直是 RTO 內外討論的話題。PJM 和美國能源部都指出，如果這種趨勢無法扭轉，到 2030 年可能會出現供應短缺。除了需要新的供電資源外，PJM 還必須高度依賴其現有的資產基礎來確保電網未來的可靠性。

The average amount of uncleared megawatts in the last two auctions was less than 1 gigawatt, and the recent released 27, '28 auction parameters show further evidence of continued tightening fundamentals. This auction is the final auction with capital floor in place. I'll note, we remain active participants in ongoing stakeholder discussions with PJM and other governing bodies, and we will see the results from that capacity auction on December 17.

最近兩次拍賣中未清算兆瓦的平均數量不到 1 吉瓦，最近公佈的 2027 年和 2028 年拍賣參數進一步表明基本面持續收緊。本次拍賣是設有最低出資額限制的最後一次拍賣。我要指出的是，我們仍然是與 PJM 和其他管理機構進行利益相關者討論的積極參與者，我們將在 12 月 17 日看到容量拍賣的結果。

Back to you, Terry.

特里，該你了。

Now to slide 6, which covers our year-to-date financial and operating results. For the nine months ended 2025, we are reporting $653 million of adjusted EBITDA and $232 million of adjusted free cash flow. Our liquidity remains substantial with $1.2 billion of liquidity available for working capital, including approximately $490 million of cash available. Once we close on the Freedom and Guernsey acquisitions, we'll have $200 million more of liquidity as our revolver capacity will increase to $900 million.

現在來看看第 6 張投影片，其中涵蓋了我們今年迄今為止的財務和營運表現。截至 2025 年的九個月，我們報告調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.53 億美元，調整後的自由現金流為 2.32 億美元。我們的流動資金依然充裕，有 12 億美元的流動資金可用於營運資金，其中包括約 4.9 億美元的可用現金。一旦完成對 Freedom 和 Guernsey 的收購，我們的流動資金將增加 2 億美元，因為我們的循環信貸額度將增加到 9 億美元。

Excluding the acquisition financing, our leverage ratio is still within our 3.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA target. Year-to-date, we generated 28 terawatt hours with over 40% of this generation coming from our carbon-free Susquehanna nuclear facility. Our year-to-date forced outage rate is higher than we have experienced in the past. This higher outage rate was largely driven by outages at our Martins Creek plant, which experienced prolonged outages due to induction fan repairs.

不計收購融資，我們的槓桿率仍處於淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率 3.5 倍的目標範圍內。今年迄今為止，我們發電 28 太瓦時，其中超過 40% 的發電量來自我們無碳排放的薩斯奎哈納核電廠。今年迄今為止，我們的強制停機率高於以往任何一年。較高的停機率主要是由於我們馬丁斯克里克工廠的停機造成的，該工廠由於感應風扇維修而經歷了長時間的停機。

These issues have been resolved, and the plant continues to serve as a peaking unit across the fleet. However, the outages did contribute to our inability to capture some upside as previously noted.

這些問題已經解決，電廠將繼續作為整個機組的調峰機組運作。然而，如同先前所提到的，這些故障確實導致我們無法獲得一些上漲收益。

Safety remains our first priority across the fleet, and our year-to-date recordable incident rate was 0.64. While higher than prior quarters, this remains well below the industry average. The commitment of the team to operate in a safe and reliable manner is an important part of Talen's value proposition.

安全仍然是我們整個車隊的首要任務，今年迄今為止可記錄的事故率為 0.64。雖然高於前幾個季度，但仍遠低於行業平均水平。團隊致力於以安全可靠的方式運營，這是 Talen 價值主張的重要組成部分。

Now turning to the financial results on slide 7. For the third quarter 2025, Talen reported adjusted EBITDA of $363 million and an adjusted free cash flow of $223 million. This quarter, our earnings include the higher 2025, 2026 PJM capacity pricing of approximately $270 per megawatt day and an increase in energy margin. Adjusted free cash flow includes higher CapEx associated with the extended Susquehanna refueling outage. Additionally, we also have higher solar energy pricing, which resulted in increase in generation across the fleet.

現在來看第 7 頁的財務結果。Talen 公佈 2025 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.63 億美元，調整後自由現金流為 2.23 億美元。本季度，我們的收益包括 2025 年和 2026 年 PJM 更高的容量定價（約 270 美元/兆瓦日）以及能源利潤率的提高。調整後的自由現金流包括與 Susquehanna 延長加油停工相關的更高資本支出。此外，太陽能價格也較高，這導致整個船隊的發電量增加。

Moving now to guidance on slide 8. With three quarters behind us, we are narrowing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA as we are trending towards the low end of guidance, as mentioned at our Investor Day, due to the lack of volatility in prices in the third quarter and the extended outage at Susquehanna that offset our strong first half of 2025. Adjusted free cash flow remains near the middle of our original range, driven by our continued focus on generating the most cash flow per share as possible. We are affirming our 2026 guidance and remain confident in both our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow numbers. All of this remains consistent with our Investor Day.

現在來看第 8 張投影片的指導說明。過去三個季度過去了，由於第三季度價格波動性不足以及薩斯奎哈納油田長期停產抵消了我們2025年上半年的強勁表現，我們正朝著預期範圍的下限邁進，因此我們正在縮小2025年調整後EBITDA的預期。正如我們在投資者日上提到的。調整後的自由現金流仍處於我們最初預期範圍的中段，這得益於我們持續專注於盡可能提高每股現金流。我們重申2026年的業績指引，並對調整後的EBITDA和調整後的自由現金流數據充滿信心。所有這些都與我們的投資者日活動保持一致。

Turning now to slide 9. We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. In September, we announced another upsizing of our share repurchase program, and we will have $2 billion of capacity remaining through year-end 2028 once we close on the acquisitions. We are supportive of targeting $500 million of annual share repurchases during the post-acquisition deleveraging period. Once we reach our targeted leverage of 3.5 times or less, we intend to return to allocating 70% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders on a significantly higher free cash flow base.

現在翻到第9張投影片。我們始終致力於向股東返還資本。9 月，我們宣布再次擴大股票回購計畫規模，一旦完成收購，到 2028 年底，我們將還有 20 億美元的回購額度。我們支持在收購後的去槓桿化時期，每年回購 5 億美元的股票。一旦我們的槓桿率達到 3.5 倍或更低的目標，我們將恢復將 70% 的調整後自由現金流分配給股東，而自由現金流基礎也將顯著提高。

Lastly, during the quarter, we sold nuclear PTCs for approximately $190 million. We were able to monetize the credits due to the additional benefits from tax reform implemented this summer, along with the tax benefits from the upcoming acquisitions, which will significantly reduce our cash tax burden for the next several years. The monetization is just another example of Talen's focus on producing bottom line cash flow. The liquidity addition from these sales provides us more options on our deleveraging activity, share repurchases and other strategic transactions.

最後，本季我們售出了價值約 1.9 億美元的核能 PTC。由於今年夏天實施的稅收改革帶來的額外好處，以及即將進行的收購帶來的稅收優惠，我們得以將這些稅收抵免變現，這將大大減輕我們未來幾年的現金稅負。這種獲利模式只是 Talen 專注於創造實際現金流的另一個例子。這些出售所得的流動性增加為我們去槓桿化活動、股票回購和其他策略交易提供了更多選擇。

Turning to slide 10. As of October 31, our forecasted 2025 year-end net leverage ratio is approximately 2.6 times, well below our target. We will be focusing on debt paydown after the acquisitions to reach our targeted net leverage ratio by the end of 2026. And our pro forma net leverage is expected to remain below 3.5 times by year-end 2026.

翻到第10張投影片。截至 10 月 31 日，我們預測 2025 年底淨槓桿率約為 2.6 倍，遠低於我們的目標。收購完成後，我們將專注於償還債務，以期在 2026 年底前達到我們設定的淨槓桿目標。預計到 2026 年底，我們的備考淨槓桿率將維持在 3.5 倍以下。

With that, I'll hand the discussion back to Mac.

那麼，我就把討論交還給 Mac 了。

Great. Thanks, Terry, and thanks for everyone for joining us on the call. We look forward to your questions. We'll turn it back to the operator, Michelle, and open the lines for questions.

偉大的。謝謝特里，也謝謝各位參加這次電話會議。我們期待您的提問。我們將把電話轉回給接線員米歇爾，並開放提問通道。

(Operator Instructions) Angie Storozynski, Seaport.

（操作說明）安吉·斯托羅津斯基，海港。

So my question is, as you said, Mac, every day, we seem to be getting announcements about new power deals, just not from IPPs, it seems. I mean, we have conversions of Bitcoin miners, oil and gas companies are jumping in, companies that completely had nothing to do with power until yesterday seemingly building new nooks and gas plants and yet we're still waiting for public and private IPPs to monetize their assets.

所以我的問題是，正如你所說，Mac，我們似乎每天都會收到關於新電力交易的公告，但似乎都不是來自獨立電力生產商（IPP）。我的意思是，比特幣礦工紛紛轉型，石油和天然氣公司也紛紛湧入，一些直到昨天還與電力完全無關的公司似乎都在建造新的礦場和天然氣發電廠，然而我們仍在等待公共和私人獨立發電企業將其資產貨幣化。

So you're probably the last person I should push back against because you have been doing your share and some. But are you concerned that existing assets are losing the time to power benefit to the new build and those conversions?

所以，你大概是我最不該反對的人，因為你已經盡了自己的一份力，甚至做得更多。但您是否擔心現有資產會因為新建案和改造工程而失去獲得電力優勢的時間？

Hi, Angie. I appreciate the push actually. So no, we're not concerned. Look, we're going about our business, and we have been. As I said during some of the remarks there at the opening, we've continued to work to execute. I think that one of the things that we've done over time has learned a lot of commercial knowledge.

嗨，安吉。我其實很感謝你的推動。所以，我們並不擔心。你看，我們一直正常地開展業務。正如我在開幕式上的一些演講中所說，我們一直在努力執行。我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們所做的一件事就是累積了很多商業知識。

We still think that's very applicable. We still think that we offer speed to market solutions. But I would note that these things are complicated.

我們仍然認為這非常適用。我們仍然認為我們能夠提供快速推向市場的解決方案。但我想指出，這些事情很複雜。

They will come. They just take time. And as I said during my comments, we want to do the right deals, and we want to do them on our time line and counterparties that we're working with time line to find the appropriate point by which to execute. That, to me, doesn't change the overall thesis nor does it change our thought process around this. It's just things take time.

他們會來的。它們只是需要時間。正如我在演講中所說，我們希望達成正確的交易，並希望按照我們自己的時間表以及與我們合作的交易對手的時間表來完成這些交易，從而找到合適的執行時機。在我看來，這既不會改變整體論點，也不會改變我們圍繞這個問題的思考過程。事情都需要時間。

I mean if you think about it, we've gone from a behind the meter to -- we all know the history, but the behind-the-meter deal with the ISA being kind of thrown in the air, rejected and then being working to solve that and then we went to work on a commercial solution, moved it to the front of the meter, a lot of commercial learning there. We've always said we think that gas is the capability, a gas portfolio to be specific, not just single gas units that using a portfolio like we have the ability to backstop things in front of the meter type transactions that they're coming. And we continue to make progress.

我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，我們已經從表後傳輸發展到——我們都知道這段歷史，表後傳輸協議與ISA協議的提出有點懸而未決，遭到拒絕，然後我們努力解決這個問題，然後我們開始著手開發商業解決方案，將其移到表前傳輸，這其中有很多商業經驗。我們一直認為，天然氣是一種能力，更確切地說是一種天然氣組合，而不僅僅是單一天然氣單位。利用這樣的組合，我們有能力在即將到來的計量交易之前提供支援。我們持續取得進展。

I mentioned, for example, and I'll let Cole jump in here in a second. But like we're advancing things. I mean you saw what's going on at the Montour site with the rezoning. We think that that's a good opportunity. We've described that in probably maybe too much detail over the past six months so that everybody wants to know when we're going to announce a deal there.

例如，我剛才提到了這一點，我馬上讓科爾插話。但感覺我們正在取得進步。我的意思是，你們都看到了蒙圖爾地塊的重新規劃狀況。我們認為這是一個很好的機會。在過去六個月裡，我們可能已經對此進行了過於詳細的描述，所以每個人都想知道我們什麼時候會宣布達成協議。

But we're moving that forward in a positive fashion. We're going to get there. These things just take time. Cole?

但我們正在以積極的方式推進這項工作。我們一定會到達那裡。這些事情都需要時間。油菜？

Yeah. I would just add that I think the deals that we've done, Angie, and continue to focus on our advantage from a speed to market, and we do provide an advantage there and probably on a different time frame than some of the deals that you're referring to being announced recently. And so we're really focused on those kind of deals that can get sites up and running and powered in the near term, like in our next year, two-, three-year window.

是的。我只想補充一點，安吉，我認為我們已經達成的交易，以及我們繼續專注於快速上市的優勢，我們在這方面確實具有優勢，而且我們的上市時間可能與你提到的最近宣布的一些交易有所不同。因此，我們真正關注的是那些能夠讓網站在短期內（例如未來一到兩年、三年內）上線運行並獲得支援的協議。

And as Mac said, they're a little complicated, and we like to go for the gigawatt scale as well. And so it just takes some time, but we're pleased with where we're at and where we're progressing and where we're going.

正如 Mac 所說，它們有點複雜，我們也喜歡採用千兆瓦規模。所以這需要一些時間，但我們對目前的狀況、所取得的進展以及未來的發展方向感到滿意。

Good. And just one follow-up. Mac, you mentioned expansion of your portfolio. So I mean, I know that you have the 3.5 times net debt-to-EBITDA leverage limit. I mean, is that a real limit? Or could you, for example, address it by, I don't know, securitization of the revenues that are coming from the Susquehanna contract, just being a little bit more creative to give yourself more of a balance sheet (inaudible)?

好的。還有一個後續問題。Mac，你提到要拓展你的作品集。我的意思是，我知道你們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率上限為 3.5 倍。我的意思是，這真的是個極限嗎？或者，例如，您可以考慮將薩斯奎哈納河合約的收入證券化，或者採取更具創意的方式來改善您的資產負債表？（聽不清楚）？

Well, I'll let Terry jump in here after he kicks me on the table because I'm always telling that managing the balance sheet and credit is his problem, not mine. That's a joke, Angie, and for anybody on the credit side. Terry is now kicking me literally under the table. (laughter)

好吧，等到特里把我踢到桌子上之後，我就讓他插嘴吧，因為我總是說管理資產負債表和信貸是他的問題，不是我的問題。安吉，那隻是個玩笑，對任何負責信貸的人來說都是如此。特里現在真的在桌子底下踢我。（笑聲）

But the 3.5 times, look, and I think we said this before and the way that we do capital allocation as well, the way we think about hedging and cash flow hedging and how that ties into making sure that we have appropriate cash flows, et cetera, all of that ties into our overall strategy. We set net leverage at 3.5 times. We said that we're willing to toggle it. We are toggling it for a short period of time as we take on this new debt, as we close the Freedom and Guernsey acquisitions, but we've made a commitment to return to the 3.5 times net leverage by the end of 2026. So we all pull on all those strengths.

但是，3.5倍，你看，我想我們之前也說過，我們進行資本配置的方式，我們對對沖和現金流對沖的思考方式，以及這如何與確保我們擁有適當的現金流等聯繫起來，所有這些都與我們的整體戰略息息相關。我們將淨槓桿率設定為 3.5 倍。我們說過我們願意切換這個選項。在我們承擔這筆新債務、完成 Freedom 和 Guernsey 收購期間，我們會在短時間內調整槓桿率，但我們承諾在 2026 年底將淨槓桿率恢復到 3.5 倍。所以我們都充分發揮了這些優勢。

I think that when you looked at the appetite, and Terry mentioned that there was an appetite when we went through this financing for our paper, I think it was well subscribed. We got good rates that beat what we were anticipating, which is great to exceed that. And there is an ability to do things. But when it goes to the creative securitizations, I go back to -- and I'm going to let Terry jump in here and clean up this. But like doing the securitizations and doing project level financings and those types of things, we've made a concentrated -- concerted effort over the last several years to clean up the balance sheet taking out project-level debt, taking out sponsors, taking out other people at lower levels in the projects and put things on a corporate balance sheet, which allows us to manage across the portfolio.

我認為，當你觀察市場需求時，特里也提到過，當我們為論文籌集資金時，市場需求旺盛，我認為論文的認購情況很好。我們獲得了比預期更好的利率，這真是太棒了。而且他們有能力做事。但說到創意證券化，我就得回到——我還是讓特里來補充。但是，就像進行證券化、專案融資等這類事情一樣，過去幾年我們集中精力，齊心協力地清理資產負債表，剔除專案層級的債務、發起人、專案中其他較低層級的人員，並將所有資產納入公司資產負債表，這使我們能夠對整個投資組合進行管理。

And we think that having a portfolio, having the commercial knowledge on how to structure long-dated large contracts, but having that portfolio and having that corporate debt at that level provides us the opportunity to backstop it across the entire fleet, not just a project finance type level entity that you get into when you start securitizing things. We have people -- and Terry can speak to this, but -- and Sergio as well, people come in and talk to us and want to put a contract over there with an asset over there and securitize it and offer debt in that form, but that has a different -- you start to having to quarter off credit. You have to start ordering off things as you deal with PJM. And all of those things to us don't make sense as much as having a portfolio that can provide long-term contracting solutions.

我們認為，擁有投資組合，擁有建立長期大型合約的商業知識，以及擁有這種規模的公司債務，使我們有機會為整個船隊提供支持，而不僅僅是像你開始進行證券化時那樣，成為專案融資類型的實體。我們有這樣的人——特里可以談談這個——還有塞爾吉奧，有人來和我們談，想在那邊簽一份合同，用那邊的資產進行證券化，並以那種形式提供債務，但這有所不同——你開始不得不把信貸額度縮減到四分之一。與 PJM 打交道時，你必須開始訂購一些東西。對我們來說，所有這些都不如擁有一個能夠提供長期承包解決方案的投資組合更有意義。

Yeah. Angie, this is Terry. Just to add on to Mac's comments, a couple of things. The 3.5 times leverage ratio, it's a target. For the right opportunity with the right return, we would be willing to push past that.

是的。安吉，這位是特里。我補充一下 Mac 的評論，還有幾點。3.5倍槓桿率是一個目標。如果機會合適，回報豐厚，我們願意突破這些限制。

The other thing to elaborate on is as we think about serving our debt, serving our interest and just serving the operations of the business. As long as we've got contracted cash flows that have limited risk, we feel really comfortable around that. And this goes back to Mac's other comment is when we think about the balance sheet and we think about the leverage with respect to, okay, how are we hedged, how comfortable do we feel about those cash flows? And how does that sort of near-term outlook sort of all work together. And so we'll continue to do that.

另一點需要詳細說明的是，當我們考慮償還債務、支付利息以及維持企業營運時。只要我們有風險有限的、有保障的現金流，我們就很有信心。這與 Mac 的另一條評論相呼應，當我們考慮資產負債表和槓桿率時，我們會想，好吧，我們是如何進行對沖的，我們對這些現金流有多放心？那麼，這種短期展望究竟是如何相互關聯的呢？所以我們會繼續這樣做。

The other thing I'll add to it as well is as we've grown the business and as we've added on the initial AWS transaction and the second one, and then hopefully, here in short order, the Freedom and Guernsey assets, we're growing the earnings base. We're growing the cash flow base, which obviously has resonated with the credit market. And so when I got here 2.5 years ago, we had just issued some senior secured notes at like [8.625%]. And here, we just get off the back of issuing two sets of unsecured notes that have a six handle on the interest rate.

我還要補充一點，隨著業務的成長，隨著我們完成了最初的 AWS 交易和第二筆交易，希望不久之後還能完成 Freedom 和 Guernsey 資產的收購，我們的獲利基礎正在不斷擴大。我們正在擴大現金流基礎，這顯然引起了信貸市場的共鳴。所以，當我兩年半前來到這裡時，我們剛剛發行了一些優先擔保票據，例如[8.625%]。我們剛剛發行了兩組無擔保債券，利率為 6%。

And so our cost of debt is going down in recognition of how well the business is performing and how we're growing. So we think those things are all positive. They give us a lot of options as we think about growing the business, and we'll utilize it as we move forward.

因此，由於公司業績良好且業務不斷增長，我們的債務成本正在下降。所以我們認為這些都是正面的方面。在考慮業務成長時，他們為我們提供了許多選擇，我們將在前進的過程中加以利用。

And that balance sheet just gets stronger over time as we grow into the contracted aspect as the ramp ramps up with the existing AWS contract stand-alone. But as we add more contracts to that, right, it's going to further strengthen the balance sheet and provide for visibility to those cash flows. So maybe later, but not now. I think we like the position we're in and -- it gives us the flexibility to toggle things for short periods of time and then get back to our net leverage target of 3.5 times net debt to EBITDA.

隨著我們逐步拓展合約業務，現有 AWS 獨立合約的規模不斷擴大，資產負債表也隨之變得更加穩健。但隨著我們增加更多合同，這將進一步加強資產負債表，並提高現金流的可見度。所以也許以後吧，但現在不行。我認為我們對目前的處境感到滿意，這讓我們能夠靈活地在短時間內調整策略，然後回到淨槓桿目標，即淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 3.5 倍。

Shar Pourreza, Wells Fargo.

Shar Pourreza，富國銀行。

So Mac, just in Maryland, there's obviously a vocal IPP around supporting solutions to add incremental capacity in the state's expedited CPCN solicitation process. I guess what's your thoughts around offering up alternatives and maybe again, your view on the construct in that state and then you can kind of be supportive of RA efforts there?

所以，Mac，僅在馬裡蘭州，就明顯有一位積極支持解決方案的獨立電力生產商 (IPP)，希望在州政府加快的 CPCN 招標過程中增加增量容量。我想問您對提出替代方案有什麼想法？還有，您對這種狀態下的結構有什麼看法？這樣您就能支持RA在這方面的努力了？

Yeah. Thanks, Shar. Look, first, I'd say we're actually doing our part through the RMR. Those are units that were slated to shut down under basically an agreement with the environmental firms, et cetera. And so we've worked hard to execute those RMRs. We are looking at would it make sense to get more gas to that site and prolong and convert. But you got to be able to get gas to that site, and we're working with the local utility, but that's going to take some time.

是的。謝謝你，莎爾。首先，我想說我們實際上透過RMR盡了自己的一份力。這些機組原本計劃根據與環保公司等達成的協議而關閉。因此，我們努力實現了這些RMR目標。我們正在研究向該地點輸送更多天然氣、延長使用壽命和進行改造是否有意義。但是必須先把天然氣運送到那個地點，我們正在與當地的公用事業公司合作，但這需要一些時間。

I think that -- but where we have assets and where we're located there, it probably doesn't lend to sort of redevelopment in the size that you could do further on the eastern side of the Bay, which is over towards Chalk and -- that area, Chalk Point, where there's a couple of CCGTs, there's open land, et cetera. And getting gas across the river or the Lower Bay or Upper Bay, however you want to talk about it, is -- that's a difficult proposition.

我認為——但是，就我們擁有資產和我們所處的位置而言，可能不利於像海灣東側那樣進行大規模的重建，也就是在查克角附近，那裡有幾個聯合循環燃氣渦輪機，還有空地等等。無論你如何稱呼它，要把汽油運過河、下灣或上灣，都是一件非常困難的事。

So but we're working to try to get incremental gas there to see if we can take that coal unit and convert it like we did convert Brandon like we did at Montour and as we have done and we have the ability to do at Brunner. Look, if there was an ability to figure something else out, we'd look at it. But right now, that's how we see us contributing to Maryland.

所以，我們正在努力爭取在那裡增加天然氣供應，看看我們是否可以像改造布蘭登煤電廠、蒙圖爾煤電廠和布魯納煤電廠那樣，改造那個燃煤機組，而且我們有能力在布魯納煤電廠也做到這一點。你看，如果還有其他方法，我們會考慮的。但就目前而言，這就是我們為馬裡蘭州做出貢獻的方式。

Got it. Okay. That's perfect. And then just lastly, shifting gears to Pennsylvania. I guess, Mac, what do you need to see to build there?

知道了。好的。那很完美。最後，我們把話題轉向賓州。我想問，Mac，你需要看到什麼才能在那裡建造？

I mean, have you had any discussions with the utilities on their views of resource adequacy solution? And is there a common ground there that you can strike? It just seems like when you're hearing from Exelon and PPL, there's discussions to be had, but I just want to get a sense from you where the bid ask is there.

我的意思是，您是否與公用事業公司就資源充足性解決方案的看法進行過任何討論？你們之間是否存在著可以達成的共同點？感覺從 Exelon 和 PPL 那裡聽到的消息都表明雙方還有很多討論要做，但我只是想從你那裡了解一下他們的要價是多少。

Sure. Well, first of all, there's the whole (inaudible) that's going on about how do we solve that, and we've been active in that, and we've got a couple of things that we're working up is to provide solutions there. We worked up a proposal with a consortium that included a couple of hyperscalers as well as some other IPPs and trying to be constructive there.

當然。首先，關於如何解決這個問題，目前存在著許多（聽不清楚）的情況，我們一直在積極參與其中，我們正在研究一些解決方案。我們與一個聯盟制定了一份提案，該聯盟包括幾家超大規模資料中心營運商以及其他一些獨立電力生產商，並試圖在其中發揮建設性作用。

I think the real issue is that we are concerned about the so-called rate shock of capacity prices going to $330 in this last clear and $270 before, but those prices do not support new build. If you look at any of the economic analysis done as part of the quadrennial review, it's $500 a megawatt day, okay? And then you get into the debate of will one capacity clear incentivize that build.

我認為真正的問題是，我們擔心所謂的價格衝擊，即容量價格在上一次市場波動中達到 330 美元，之前達到 270 美元，但這些價格不支持新建項目。如果你查看四年一度的評估報告中所做的任何經濟分析，你會發現每兆瓦每天的成本是 500 美元，懂嗎？然後，就會引發關於一項能力是否會明確激勵這種建設的爭論。

We think that there needs to be some structural changes to provide a longer-term perspective there for new build. There is talk about building in rate base, but it's always done if there's the right contract or the right ability or the right returns, and even if you do that, it's at $2,500 a kilowatt. And if you -- even though the energy curves have ticked up and the capacity markets have moved up, they do not equate to what is necessary for a new build CCGT.

我們認為需要進行一些結構性變革，以便為那裡的新建案提供更長遠的視角。有人談到要建立費率基礎，但這總是在有合適的合約、合適的能力或合適的回報的情況下才會發生，即使你這樣做了，價格也是每千瓦 2500 美元。即使能源曲線上升，容量市場也有所成長，但這仍然不足以滿足新建燃氣複合循環發電廠的需求。

We actually think that CCGTs are a solution that are needed in the future when overall energy demand rises, but there's plenty of energy on the grid. We can run mid-merit and peaking units more. We're setting our units up to do that. We mentioned Martins Creek, and we're running them harder and have less time for maintenance offline, et cetera. And we're making adjustments in CapEx and O&M, as Terry mentioned earlier in the remarks, those can sop up a lot of energy demand.

我們認為，當未來整體能源需求上升，但電網能源供應充足時，燃氣渦輪機合併循環發電 (CCGT) 將成為必要的解決方案。我們可以增加中等功率和峰值功率機組的運作量。我們正在安排人員執行這項任務。我們提到了馬丁斯溪，我們正在加大對它們的運作力度，因此用於離線維護等的時間更少了。正如 Terry 前面提到的，我們正在調整資本支出和營運維護，這些可以緩解許多能源需求。

But it goes back to solving the 50 to 100 hours a year of capacity that needs to be solved. And we just think that that is -- lends itself better to things like batteries or peakers rather than CCGTs and at lower overall cost and should be utilized. But to do those, a lot of people are sitting around thinking, okay, well, if we're not there yet, then and it's easy for us to say, right? We'll do something if someone provides us the right level of return for the investment over a long-term contract.

但歸根究底，還是要解決每年 50 到 100 小時的產能缺口問題。我們認為，這種技術更適合電池或尖峰機組，而不是燃氣聯合循環發電廠，而且整體成本更低，應該加以利用。但要做到這一點，很多人卻坐在那裡想，好吧，如果我們還沒達到目標，那麼，我們說起來容易，對吧？如果有人能透過長期合約為我們提供合適的投資回報，我們就會採取行動。

Well, that's true, too, but the energy and capacity markets aren't there yet. But I do think you're going to see them get there over the next period of time, year two, but it's going to be solved by something other than CCGTs because it's just a speed to market thing. You cannot get a CCGT built by this time. And the question that preceded you here talked about all these other solutions. Well, all of those other solutions are high-cost solutions that people are not grasping at, but they're proposing but they're very high-cost solutions because of the technology that's being used, but people are looking at it as a speed to market.

沒錯，但能源和容量市場尚未成熟。但我認為在接下來的幾年裡，也就是第二年，你會看到他們實現這個目標，但這將透過CCGT以外的其他方式來解決，因為這只是一個加快市場速度的問題。現在還造不出CCGT。而你前面那個問題討論的是所有其他解決方案。嗯，其他那些解決方案都是成本很高的解決方案，人們並不接受，但他們提出的這些方案成本非常高，因為使用了相關的技術，不過人們看重的是快速上市。

And so we need to get CCGT goings in the long term, but we've got to solve this 50 to 100 hours in the near term. And we just think that we're going to be able to participate in that by adding to our fleet and peakers batteries if we can get the right return mechanisms or if we can integrate it right with contracts, things of that nature. So I hope that answers your question, Shar.

因此，從長遠來看，我們需要讓 CCGT 運作起來，但短期內我們必須解決這個問題，耗時 50 到 100 小時。我們認為，如果我們能獲得合適的回報機制，或者能將其與合約等事項妥善整合，我們就可以透過增加我們的機組和調峰機組電池來參與其中。希望這能解答你的疑問，莎爾。

It does. It does. Yeah, there's obviously some more wood to chop there, but I appreciate it. Thank you, Mac. We'll see you soon.

確實如此。確實如此。是的，顯然還有一些工作要做，但我很感激。謝謝你，麥克。我們很快就會再見。

Bill (sic - "Will") Appicelli, UBS.

Bill (原文如此 - "Will") Appicelli，瑞銀集團。

Just wanted to build upon some comments you just made there. You mentioned earlier about energy prices moving up. What are your thoughts on what's driving that? And where can that go, right? I mean if you discuss what you just mentioned there around the mid-merit and the peakers running more, right?

我只是想補充你剛才的一些評論。您之前提到過能源價格上漲的問題。你認為造成這種情況的原因是什麼？那又能往哪裡發展呢？我的意思是，如果你討論一下你剛才提到的關於中等水平和巔峰水平的運行情況，對吧？

I mean that's going to drive up the marginal cost on the energy side a bit. So I mean, is it driving to the upper $80s, $90 in terms of cost of new entry on an energy level? Or how do we think about sort of what the backdrop is for the wholesale power markets?

我的意思是，這會稍微推高能源方面的邊際成本。所以我的意思是，從能源層面來看，新進業者的成本是否會上升到 80 美元甚至 90 美元以上？或者，我們該如何看待批發電力市場的背景呢？

Yeah. Good question. Let's see if I cannot mix metrics here. Look, on a megawatt hour basis all in, I think you're looking at 120 plus for CCGT on a greenfield development and you're looking at a 2030 plus delivery time frame of COD. I do think that you can find ways to add so-called additionality to the grid that are cheaper than that and quicker than that.

是的。問得好。讓我看看能不能在這裡混用指標。你看，按兆瓦時計算，我認為新建項目的燃氣聯合循環發電項目總發電量將超過 120 兆瓦時，而商業化運營的交付時間預計在 2030 年以後。我認為可以找到比這更便宜、更快捷的方法來為電網增加所謂的附加性。

And those -- I've already mentioned that. I do think that -- and to your point, and this is a little bit about what Chris mentioned when he talked about the curve and the recent phenomenon of going up the curve, some of that's gas driven a little bit, but some of it's also people looking at it and saying sparks are expanding because you're getting to higher cost units filling the energy demand. This overall energy demand is going up. So energy prices should go up.

還有那些──我已經提過了。我確實認為——正如你所說，這有點像克里斯在談到曲線和最近曲線上升的現象時提到的那樣，其中一些是由天然氣驅動的，但也有一部分原因是人們觀察到，火花正在擴大，因為你正在用更高成本的單位來滿足能源需求。整體能源需求正在上升。所以能源價格應該會上漲。

We -- as Chris said, we've been waiting to see that and people often ask us. And even until recently, I mean, if you look at that chart that Chris was talking about, it's only been like the last three weeks that this thing has gotten a bid. And -- but we were anticipating that it was going to go there. We set the portfolio up on that to think about when we go in and layer cash flow hedges.

正如克里斯所說，我們一直在等待看到這一幕，人們也經常問我們這個問題。甚至直到最近，我的意思是，如果你看看克里斯提到的那張圖表，你會發現這個項目直到最近三週才獲得報價。但我們預料到事情會發展到那一步。我們根據這一點來建立投資組合，以便考慮何時進行現金流量對沖。

Obviously, there's some timing that you can apply there, but there's also, as Terry mentioned, managing the cash flow hedges to protect the downside as we look at security for having cash flows for debt service, et cetera, share buybacks, all the like. So we do think that energy markets are going to go up. I don't know if it's 80, 85, but we're starting to see on-peaks go up. And quite frankly, for the first time in a decade, we're starting to see summer on peak start to beat winter on peak. And that hasn't been a phenomenon for a decade in PJM.

顯然，你可以運用一些時機，但正如 Terry 所提到的，還要管理現金流對沖來保護下行風險，因為我們要考慮現金流的安全，以償還債務、股票回購等等。所以我們認為能源市場將會上漲。我不知道是 80 還是 85，但我們開始看到峰值氣溫上升了。坦白說，十年來我們第一次看到夏季高峰期的氣溫開始超過冬季高峰期的氣溫。而這在 PJM 已經十年沒有發生過了。

And as -- I think Terry mentioned the third and fourth highest peak days in June that we've seen. So a lot of this stuff is starting to manifest itself. I think the tip of the iceberg was the $270 and then the $330, and that's the capacity market because it's further out in time. But now you're starting to see it in the '26 and '27 forwards. And we just think that that thesis is continuing.

而且——我想特里提到了我們在六月看到的第三和第四高的峰值。所以很多事情開始顯現出來了。我認為 270 美元和 330 美元只是冰山一角，那是容量市場，因為它的時間跨度更長。但現在你開始在 2026 年和 2027 年的前鋒身上看到這一點了。我們認為這個論點仍然成立。

Yeah. And maybe, Bill, to add to Mac's comments, really your second part of your question, I think what you're seeing in the forwards is really driven by what we're seeing in the fundamentals, right? We've seen this demand growth. We've gone, I mean, effectively a decade with sort of flat to no growth in the PJM market from a load standpoint. And now we're starting to see tangible load growth on a year-over-year basis, and that expectation is going to continue.

是的。比爾，或許可以補充麥克的評論，也就是你問題的第二部分，我認為你在前鋒身上看到的，實際上是由我們在基本面方面看到的驅動力，對吧？我們已經看到了這種需求成長。我的意思是，從負載角度來看，PJM 市場實際上已經停滯不前甚至沒有成長長達十年之久。現在我們開始看到貨運量逐年穩定成長，而且這種成長動能還會持續。

I think the recent peaks that we hit during the summer are other good indicators of it. And then also just people rolling forward and actually really thinking about how they're going to handle their wholesale power cost in '27 and '28 and beyond. So we've seen more activity in the market. We do think it's fundamental based, and we think it's constructive.

我認為我們在夏季達到的近期高峰也是很好的佐證。此外，人們也在展望未來，認真思考如何在 2027 年、2028 年及以後應對批發電力成本。因此，我們看到市場活動更加活躍了。我們認為這是基於根本的，而且我們認為這是建設性的。

And to Max's earlier point, to get to the level of value to where you can build a CCGT or anything else, right, the devil is in the details of what is that total cost and then what return are you solving for. But we're still far away from that point. To Mac's comment, right, we think that that number is well over $100 per megawatt. And so we've got quite a bit of ways to go before we can hit that point.

正如 Max 之前提到的，要達到能夠建造 CCGT 或其他任何設施的價值水平，關鍵在於細節，即總成本是多少，以及你要追求的回報是多少。但我們離那個目標還很遠。針對 Mac 的評論，我們認為這個數字遠遠超過每兆瓦 100 美元。因此，我們距離達到那個目標還有很長的路要走。

Okay. All right. No, that's very helpful. And then as far as additional asset acquisitions or can you just speak to what's out there? And are there things that you would still consider folding into the portfolio at this point when you kind of are making the evaluations around capital allocation?

好的。好的。不，這很有幫助。那麼，關於額外的資產收購，或者您能否談談目前市場上的情況？那麼，在進行資本配置評估時，您是否還會考慮將某些資產納入投資組合？

Well, I think on that, we'll continue what we always say is, obviously, we're always in the market looking for things. When we find something that we like and we think fits where we want to go, we'll definitely let the market know about it.

嗯，關於這一點，我認為我們會繼續我們一直以來所說的，那就是，很顯然，我們一直在市場上尋找機會。當我們找到我們喜歡並且認為符合我們發展方向的產品時，我們一定會讓市場知道。

As you've seen, generally, right, there's still a lot of M&A activity in the space. It varies from one asset to small portfolios. Obviously, there's been several larger M&A deals done this year across the IPP space.

正如你所看到的，總的來說，這個領域仍然有很多併購活動。不同資產組合的收益情況各不相同。顯然，今年在獨立發電領域已經完成了幾筆較大的併購交易。

But still a lot of activity. I think there's still a lot of holders of assets that have held them for a while that are probably in a spot where they're looking for an exit. And then obviously, you've seen Talen and others engage from a buyer standpoint. So still active, still looking at things as they come around across our desk. And as we get to a place where we find something, we'll talk about it then.

但依然有很多活動。我認為仍然有很多持有資產一段時間的人，他們可能正在尋求退出的機會。顯然，您也看到了 Talen 和其他公司從買家的角度參與其中。所以，我們依然活躍，依然會專注於擺在我們面前的各種事情。當我們找到什麼東西的時候，我們會再討論它。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

Jeremy Tonet，摩根大通。

Just wanted to pivot to battery storage, if we could. And wondering if you could talk a bit about why you chose the partner you chose. And do you have any thoughts specifically on long-duration energy storage for AI data center applications?

我們只是想盡可能地轉向電池儲能。我想知道您是否可以談談您為什麼選擇您現在選擇的伴侶。您對人工智慧資料中心應用中的長時儲能有什麼具體的想法嗎？

Yes. Look, first of all, we're working with EOS and looking at the deployment there. And there's something that we talk about long duration, which obviously the technology provides for long duration, but it also can be discharged for four hours, can be discharged for up to 12 hours. You can go across that spectrum and you can dispatch it over time and reload the battery. And I think that that is critical because managing load that helps in managing load.

是的。首先，我們正在與 EOS 合作，並研究在那裡的部署情況。我們談到了長時間使用，這項技術顯然可以實現長時間使用，但它也可以放電 4 小時，也可以放電長達 12 小時。你可以遍歷這個範圍，並且可以隨著時間的推移將其分發並重新充電。我認為這至關重要，因為管理負載有助於管理負載。

And when we think about batteries, we kind of think of them as net load, if you will, which is reducing peaks, which goes back to the 50 to 100 hours, and can you do that across time. So we think that there's a good match up there. I will also tell you that because of the technology that EOS uses, it has a distinct advantage in that the fire protection needed is not the same as lithium-ion or other batteries.

當我們考慮電池時，我們通常會把它們看作是淨負載，也就是減少尖峰負載，這可以追溯到 50 到 100 小時，以及你能在一段時間內做到這一點。所以我們認為他們之間很有匹配度。我還要告訴大家，由於 EOS 採用的技術，它具有明顯的優勢，因為所需的防火措施與鋰離子電池或其他電池不同。

And so because of the technology doesn't have the same components and doesn't need that, that allows them from a -- and I think Cole can probably expand on this. But as we think about load and we talk about colocation, but I want to talk about just like colocation relative to the grid, being able to have batteries next to data centers or next to a nuclear unit or next to one of our other generating units, you don't want to have to worry about fires there and that associated. So it has that incremental advantage as well as the advantage of being able to match up on a time duration at different intervals.

因此，由於這項技術沒有相同的組件，也不需要這些組件，這使得它們能夠——我認為科爾可以就此展開討論。但是，當我們考慮負載並討論共址時，我想談談與電網相關的共址，能夠將電池放置在資料中心旁邊、核電站旁邊或我們其他發電裝置旁邊，這樣就不用擔心那裡發生火災以及相關的問題了。因此，它具有這種漸進式優勢，以及能夠在不同時間間隔內匹配時間長度的優勢。

Obviously, efficiencies go down depending upon what you choose, et cetera. But those are the two benefits I see. And then the ability -- again, that goes back to colocation. I don't know if there's anything you wanted to add there, Cole.

顯然，效率會根據你的選擇而降低，等等。但我看到的只有這兩點好處。然後，這種能力——同樣，這又回到了託管的問題。科爾，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的。

No, I think it's an interesting technology and opportunity for us that we're exploring and better understanding the value that the battery solution may provide to data centers is something that is certainly core to why we want to kind of proceed with some kind of partnership like -- and so we're exploring it and having discussions around what that value stream is. And as those solutions present themselves, I'm sure we'll be kind of talking more about that.

不，我認為這是一項有趣的技術，也是我們正在探索的機會。更了解電池解決方案可能為資料中心帶來的價值，這當然是我們希望進行某種合作的核心原因——因此，我們正在探索並討論這種價值流是什麼。隨著這些解決方案的出現，我相信我們會就此進行更多討論。

Got it. And just wanted to pick up, I guess, with the forward curve moving up a bit here, as you touched on before. I'm just wondering, granted it's recent, the moves you're talking about here, has that started to, I guess, filter into conversations on long-term contracts, just these upward moves, has that changed anything in conversations?

知道了。我想補充一點，正如你之前提到的，目前的遠期曲線略有上升。我只是想知道，雖然這是最近發生的，但你在這裡提到的這些舉措，是否已經開始滲透到關於長期合約的討論中，例如這些薪資上漲，這是否改變了人們的討論方式？

Power is not getting any cheaper. So I think it informs things. But when we think about long-term contracts, I'm looking at Cole here to jump in. We're thinking about things over the long term. And we like matching that load over the long term, as Cole said, in the gigawatt size and the large size over time.

電力價格並沒有變得更便宜。所以我認為這能提供一些資訊。但當我們考慮長期合約時，我認為科爾會加入進來。我們考慮的是長遠問題。正如 Cole 所說，我們希望長期滿足這種負荷需求，達到千兆瓦級和大規模。

And when you think about long-term contracts, the markets have gone up, they've gone down, et cetera. We like the ability to take our assets, contract them provide the appropriate level of return, reduce risk, therefore, we would contend would generate effectively the ability to have a lower free cash flow yield because it's lower risk and higher valuation. And that's the Talen flywheel that we're trying to implement, but --

當你考慮長期合約時，你會發現市場有漲有跌，等等。我們喜歡能夠利用我們的資產，透過合約提供適當的回報水平，降低風險，因此，我們認為這將有效地產生較低的自由現金流收益率，因為風險較低，估值較高。這就是我們正在努力實現的Talen飛輪效應，但是--

Yeah. And I think as energy prices go up, it informs us on the terms, not just the pricing, but the overall terms, as Mac is talking about of any future deals. And also, I'm sure, informs the counterparties on what their views are and what term and pricing and risk and so forth.

是的。我認為，隨著能源價格上漲，它不僅會影響價格，還會影響未來的交易條款，就像麥克所說的那樣。而且，我相信，它也能讓交易對手了解他們的觀點，以及交易期限、定價、風險等等。

So, look, I mean, I think as Mac said, we're going to do deals on our time line. And I think as power prices are continuing to push higher, it continues to give us conviction that we're going to look at the right deals in size and pricing and all the terms. And there's no need to go rush to contract, but obviously do them prudently at the right time.

所以，你看，我的意思是，我覺得就像麥克說的那樣，我們會按照自己的時間表完成交易。我認為，隨著電力價格持續上漲，這更加堅定了我們尋求在規模、價格和所有條款方面都合適的交易的決心。沒有必要急於簽訂合同，但顯然應該在適當的時機謹慎行事。

And -- but I also think I would just add that you can't see -- there's no visible curve for 10 years, whether capacity or energy. And so we're sitting back thinking about what is appropriate returns how do we think about counterparty, how do we think about gas? How do we think about backstopping with the portfolio as I manage, -- all those different things get into that.

而且——但我還要補充一點，你看不到——無論是產能還是能源，10 年內都沒有明顯的曲線。因此，我們現在坐下來思考什麼是合適的回報，我們如何看待交易對手，我們如何看待天然氣？在我管理投資組合時，我們如何考慮投資組合的後備保障？ ——所有這些不同的因素都會涉及到這一點。

And then what does that do to our credit ability that Terry was talking about earlier in managing our leverage ratio. There was a question earlier about could you do different things with your balance sheet. As you grow into having a higher contracted portfolio over time, you could certainly do different things, but we're just not there yet. But we think that this is an overall -- we've got to embed the right risk and the right premium for taking these longer-term views and the counterparty has to do the same thing, as Cole was saying, and then it just takes two to tango.

那麼，這會對我們的信用能力產生什麼影響呢？正如特里之前在談到管理槓桿率時所說的那樣。之前有人問過，能否對資產負債表進行不同的操作。隨著你持有的合約數量不斷增加，你當然可以採取不同的做法，但我們目前還沒有達到那個階段。但我們認為這是一個整體問題——我們必須為這些長期觀點設定正確的風險和正確的溢價，交易對手也必須這樣做，正如科爾所說，然後就只需要兩個人一起努力了。

Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.

史蒂夫‧弗萊什曼，沃爾夫研究公司。

Maybe following Angie's initial question, just in terms of the customer interest, how much is kind of the desire for additionality in any way impacting demand for more contracts for you? And do you see likely -- I mean, the Sus deal had potentially adding SMRs? And do you see some type of new investment likely being part of any deals that you do?

或許可以接著 Angie 最初的問題，就客戶興趣而言，對額外服務的需求在多大程度上影響了你們的合約需求？你認為蘇氏交易有可能——我的意思是，有可能增加小型模組化反應器（SMR）嗎？您認為在您進行的任何交易中，是否有可能包含某種形式的新投資？

Steve, it's Mac. Team can jump in. Look, I definitely think that the so-called additionality, I'm not even sure that there's a standardized definition of that, but incremental megawatts to serve incremental load is kind of how I'm going to frame it. But I do think that over time, we're not out of energy right now.

史蒂夫，我是麥克。團隊成員可以加入。你看，我絕對認為所謂的額外性，我甚至不確定它是否有一個標準化的定義，但我打算這樣表述：增加兆瓦以滿足增加的負荷。但我認為，從長遠來看，我們現在還沒有耗盡能源。

We're actually not capacity short. Markets are clearing at the administrative caps and the things, and we clear closer to the real caps if left uncapped. But we're starting to get to the point, and these are in the out years of needing megawatts, but there's also the ramp of data centers over time.

實際上我們並不缺產能。市場在行政上限和相關規定下進行清算，如果不設上限，清算將更接近實際上限。但我們正逐漸接近那個階段，未來幾年將不再需要兆瓦級電力，而且隨著時間的推移，資料中心也會不斷發展壯大。

And the two of those things at some point, you're going to have to say, all right, how do we make sure -- and it's the so-called BYOP or BYOG, bring your own power, bring your own generation, et cetera. Those things are going to intersect later in the decade. And we're supportive of thinking about how do we solve that in a market construct in our contracting strategies, et cetera. It just hasn't ripened yet.

而這兩件事，在某個時候，你不得不說，好吧，我們如何確保——這就是所謂的 BYOP 或 BYOG，自備電源，自備發電機等等。這些事情將在本世紀晚些時候相互交織。我們支持思考如何在市場結構中，在我們的合約策略等方面解決這個問題。它還沒成熟。

I think that there's just been a lot of talk about it. I think there's a lot of people out there with a lot of solutions trying to bring -- offering power without saying we can do certain things, but there's no offtakes associated with those yet. That just hasn't ripened. I don't think -- and Cole can jump in here, but I don't think the demand or the desire for quickly to connect power or to have power towards the end of the decade is changing. It's just how do you solve that. And we're actively thinking about that.

我認為只是大家對這件事談太多了。我認為現在很多人都在嘗試提出各種解決方案——提供電力，但並不聲稱我們可以做某些事情，但目前還沒有任何相關的實際行動。那東西還沒成熟。我不認為——科爾可以插話——但我認為，在十年末期，人們渴望快速獲得電力或擁有電力的需求或願望並沒有改變。問題在於如何解決這個問題。我們正在積極考慮這個問題。

Yeah. And I would just say that the data center hyperscalers and everyone in the data center build-out space is really thinking about the problem in multiple, I guess, lanes. As Mac talked about before, different phases of power and there's like the near, medium, and longer term. I think the medium and long term, yes, hyperscalers are looking at how do they add megawatts to this -- to the grid as they ramp up.

是的。我想說的是，資料中心超大規模營運商以及資料中心建置領域的每個人，都在從多個方面思考這個問題。正如 Mac 之前提到的，權力有不同的階段，有近期、中期和長期三個階段。我認為從中長期來看，超大規模資料中心營運商正在考慮如何隨著電網的擴容，為電網增加兆瓦級的容量。

But they're also very, very focused on the near term, 2026, 2027, 2028. And so we see them still being very active in getting existing power and connecting to existing power -- and that's really, as I said earlier, where we're focused on. And then if there's an ability to also participate in a longer-term solution, as we've talked about in previous settings around SMRs or new build, as Terry was talking about earlier, having those conversations and exploring that as well.

但他們也非常非常關注近期，即 2026 年、2027 年、2028 年。因此，我們看到他們仍然非常積極地獲取現有電力並連接現有電力——正如我之前所說，這正是我們關注的重點。然後，如果能夠參與到更長期的解決方案中，就像我們之前在小型模組化反應器或新建項目等場合討論過的那樣，就像 Terry 之前提到的那樣，進行這些對話並探索一下。

But to me, it's -- they're still very focused now on getting power as you saw, I'm sure hyperscaler CEOs talking about doubling their capacity by 2027 from 2025, right? And the only way to do that is through existing power on the grid. And so they're -- from our -- all of our conversations, very, very interested still.

但在我看來，他們現在仍然非常專注於獲取權力，正如你所看到的，我相信超大規模資料中心的執行長們都在談論到 2027 年將產能從 2025 年翻一番，對吧？而實現這目標的唯一方法就是利用電網現有的電力。所以，從我們所有的談話來看，他們仍然非常非常感興趣。

Okay. And then PPL also reported today, and I mean, their high probability gigawatts of data center demand by the end of the decade, I mean it's like a double or triple of their current peak. And so I'm curious just maybe Chris could talk to, just are you seeing all the zonal discounts that you historically had in there kind of start going away yet in the forward curve? Is it -- does at some point, this actually kind of flip maybe even to a premium? Or just I'm curious what you're seeing there.

好的。PPL今天也發布了報告，我的意思是，他們預測到本十年末，資料中心對電力的需求將達到千兆瓦，這很有可能是他們目前高峰的兩到三倍。所以我很好奇，或許克里斯可以和你談談，你是否看到過去一直存在的區域折扣在遠期曲線中開始消失了？這種情況——或者說，在某個時候，它是否會轉變為溢價？或者我只是好奇你在那裡看到了什麼。

Yeah. Steve, it's Mac. I'll take this. We lost Chris, unfortunately, due to some conflict here. But that, Steve, is something that is the next evolution of what we think is going to happen. But if you think about ramp rates and et cetera, and where generation is on the grid today and the basis differential, I think what you're asking, if I'm understanding correctly, is like PPL zone versus West Hub because PPL zone trades at a [discount].

是的。史蒂夫，我是麥克。我要這個。不幸的是，由於我們這邊的一些衝突，克里斯去世了。但是，史蒂夫，那是我們認為接下來會發生的事情的下一個發展階段。但如果你考慮爬坡率等等因素，以及當前電網中的發電位置和基差，我認為你問的，如果我理解正確的話，就像是PPL區域與西部樞紐之間的區別，因為PPL區域的交易價格是…[折扣]。

Yeah.

是的。

Well, over time, as you build load there, you start to sort of soak up the incremental megawatts there and you move the East-West interface west. And so therefore, you get closer to the West Hub. And so therefore, it starts to close that differential. But that's probably not a necessarily near-term phenomenon until these things get ramped up.

隨著時間的推移，隨著那裡的負荷增加，你開始逐漸吸收那裡的增量兆瓦，並將東西向西移動到介面。因此，你就離西部樞紐更近了。因此，它開始縮小這種差距。但除非這些事情得到加強，否則這可能不是近期內必然會出現的現象。

So if you think about our Susquehanna 1920, that ramps full ramp is 2031, '32. So we're four or five years from that. So there's no -- Steve, there's no way for us to go out and test the market, but I don't know that we would -- I think we would be, in 2032, thinking that PPL should be a lot flatter to West Hub in that time frame.

所以，如果你想想我們的薩斯奎哈納 1920，那條坡道的完整坡道是 2031、'32。所以，我們距離那一天還有四、五年。所以，史蒂夫，我們沒有辦法出去測試市場，但我不知道我們是否會——我認為到了 2032 年，我們會認為 PPL 在那個時間段內應該比西樞紐平坦得多。

And Steve, maybe just to add to Mac's comments, that basis market historically, especially in the term, the term will react if there's large transmission projects and there's transmission projects that are being executed and built upon. But excluding that or excluding those projects that are out there and getting those completed, it does have a bit more of a recency bias of, okay, how is it showing up in the real time? How is that basis showing up as load comes in.

史蒂夫，或許可以補充麥克的評論，從歷史來看，基差市場，尤其是長期債券市場，如果存在大型輸電項目，並且正在實施和建設輸電項目，那麼長期債券市場就會做出反應。但是，如果排除那些已經存在並正在完成的項目，那麼它確實會受到一些近期偏見的影響，即，好吧，它在現實中是如何表現的？該基準是如何在負載增加時顯示的？

And so as we see more of that as the load comes into the PPL zone, I think that will inform the term market a little bit more. And then you'll start seeing a change with respect to that. But it's a little bit more of a nuanced market and the fact that it trades off of fundamentals around transmission and then just what sort of a more recency bias, if you will.

因此，隨著負載進入 PPL 區域，我們看到這種情況越來越多，我認為這將對長期市場產生更大的影響。然後你就會開始看到這方面的改變。但這是一個更微妙的市場，因為它取決於傳輸等基本面，以及某種程度的近期偏好。

And then just one last quick one. The Martins Creek issue this quarter, and you mentioned you're just running these peakers harder. Just are you looking at needing to ramp up capital spending at all to do anything to those units for next year?

最後再來一個簡短的。本季馬丁斯溪油田髮油，你提到你正在加大這些油田的運作強度。您是否考慮增加資本支出，以便明年對這些設備進行任何改造？

Yes, and it was included in what we put into our guidance. And -- but we're also thinking about, Steve, it's sort of this thing -- you've been doing this and covering it I guess as long as I've been doing it, too. But like the -- as power markets come off, you have to start to curtail capital plans and think about the way that the plant gets dispatched.

是的，這部分內容已經包含在我們的指導方針中了。而且——但我們也在考慮，史蒂夫，這有點像這樣——我想你做這件事、報道這件事的時間和我做這件事的時間一樣長。但是，就像電力市場關閉一樣，你必須開始縮減資本計劃，並考慮電廠的調度方式。

So when you go in the reverse direction, you have to do the same thing. We put more capital into '25. We're putting more into '26. But what we're also noticing, and I mentioned this is not only do we -- are we getting extended run times and extended dispatch, if you will, of the peakers, Montour, in particular, Martins Creek, et cetera, that Martins Creek was less than 4% type capacity factor for a couple of years ago and now is running teens.

所以當你反方向行駛時，你也必須這麼做。我們在 2025 年投入了更多資金。我們將在 2026 年投入更多資源。但我們也注意到，正如我之前提到的，我們不僅——我們得到了延長的運行時間和延長的調度，特別是蒙圖爾、馬丁斯克里克等調峰機組，馬丁斯克里克幾年前的類型容量係數還不到 4%，而現在已經達到了十幾。

And so -- but what's going on is, in the past, we always had the ability to take the unit offline okay, and had an extended period offline by which we could do maintenance. Now we're seeing that, okay, it's running, it's running for extended duration periods of time, and we don't have to do that. So it's not just the capital that goes in. It's actually how you think about maintenance and maintaining the units during that.

所以——但過去的情況是，我們總是能把設備離線，離線時間很長，我們可以進行維護。現在我們看到，好吧，它正在運行，而且運行時間很長，但我們不必這樣做。所以投入的不只是資金。實際上，這取決於你如何看待維護以及在此期間如何維護設備。

That is definitely true. That is not the issue that it had at Martin Creek. We just had a particular ID fan that had some bearing sets that took a while to get, but we just didn't have that downtime by which to recapture, get that ID fan done and get it back in there. And it was just -- it was something we're always fairly -- not fairly, I think we're transparent with respect to giving you some color as to what happened, and that's what happened.

確實如此。那不是馬丁溪遇到的問題。我們之前遇到一台特殊的 ID 風扇，它的一些軸承組件需要一段時間才能到貨，但我們沒有足夠的停機時間來重新完成這台 ID 風扇的維修並重新安裝。而且──我們一直都比較──不，應該說我們比較透明，會向你們說明事情的來龍去脈，這就是事情的經過。

And -- but we're excited about, quite frankly. I mean, if you look at it overall, the idea, and it's something that we've been talking about, and it goes back to why are we seeing forwards tick up and why didn't we see them before? I don't know.

坦白說，我們對此感到非常興奮。我的意思是，從整體上看，這個想法——這也是我們一直在討論的事情——可以追溯到為什麼我們看到前鋒人數上升，而以前卻沒有出現這種情況？我不知道。

But why are we seeing them now? It's because we're going further up on the dispatch curve during most -- every hour is now getting further and further up on the dispatch curve, which means you're going to be up with higher heat rate units. And so we're seeing that manifest itself across our fleet.

但為什麼我們現在才會看到它們？這是因為我們大部分時間都在調度曲線上不斷向上移動——現在每個小時都在調度曲線上不斷向上移動，這意味著你將使用熱耗率更高的機組。因此，我們看到這種情況在我們的艦隊中普遍存在。

Nicholas Campanella, Barclays.

尼古拉斯·坎帕內拉，巴克萊銀行。

So just on the commentary about Amazon doubling their overall capacity by '27, that's their number. But just can you talk to the AWS ramp? Obviously, like that data point is supportive, but just any indication that they could be ramping power draw sooner than expected? Any data points on the ground level that you can kind of point to?

所以，就亞馬遜計劃在 2027 年將其總產能翻倍的說法而言，這就是他們的數字。但你能聯絡到 AWS 的 Ramp 部門嗎？顯然，這個數據點是支持性的，但有沒有跡象表明他們的用電量可能比預期更早增加呢？你能提供一些實地數據點作為參考嗎？

Yeah. So Nick, maybe just to touch on that and then I have Cole chime in on this as well. As Mac mentioned in the opening remarks, obviously, the data center is powered, it's energized. They're taking electrons and moving forward. The construction of the site continues in earnest, significant amount of work done over the past several months, and they continue to push forward.

是的。所以尼克，也許你可以簡單提一下這一點，然後我再請科爾也發表一下看法。正如 Mac 在開場白中提到的那樣，很明顯，資料中心已經通電，並且已經通電運行。它們正在吸收電子並向前移動。該項目的建設工作正在如火如荼地進行，過去幾個月已經完成了大量工作，他們正繼續推進。

Obviously, we don't want to get into too much detail around what their ramp is like and what they're doing from a confidentiality standpoint. But we're fairly comfortable with how they're pushing forward.

顯然，出於保密考慮，我們不想過多透露他們的坡道是什麼樣的以及他們在做什麼。但我們對他們目前推進的方式感到相當滿意。

Cole, do you want to add anything?

科爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. I would just kind of reiterate what we've talked about before and continued progress. There's multiple buildings being built on top of the building that we sold to them additional ground prep, again, anyone who drives by can see all the activity.

是的。我只想重申一下我們之前討論過的內容，並繼續推進進展。在我們賣給他們的那棟大樓的上面，正在建造多棟建築物，並且進行了額外的場地平整工作，任何開車路過的人都能看到所有這些活動。

And just one point to remind folks that we talked about back in June is we transferred the old Nautilus buildings that can take up to 200 megawatts over to Amazon. Now what they do with that, that's, again, for them to speak to. But we're fairly -- we see a lot of signs that acceleration is going to continue and that they'll accelerate faster than the ramps we put out in June.

還有一點要提醒大家，我們在六月討論過，我們將能夠容納高達 200 兆瓦電力的舊 Nautilus 大樓移交給了亞馬遜。至於他們會如何處理這些資金，這又得由他們自己決定了。但我們相當肯定——我們看到很多跡象表明，加速成長將會繼續，而且成長速度會比我們在 6 月公佈的增速更快。

Awesome. And then just one cleanup question just with the acquisition. I just hear you -- I hear you in prepared you're working constructively with the DOJ, could target closing sooner than 1Q '26 now, but '26 guidance assumes January 1 close. So just talk to the conservatism in that '26 number at this point and your ability to just kind of maintain that range if that gets pushed out.

驚人的。然後，關於收購事宜，還有一個清理問題。我明白你的意思——我明白你已做好準備，正在與司法部進行建設性合作，現在可以爭取在 2026 年第一季之前完成交易，但 2026 年的指導意見假設在 1 月 1 日完成交易。所以，現在就談談「26」這個數字的保守性，以及如果這個數字被推後，你維持這個範圍的能力。

Yes. So look, there's a lot of moving pieces to a guidance range, right? Forwards are up. We've got -- that's within the range of what we provide. We've got potential for -- as we stated, this might slip into the Q1.

是的。所以你看，導引範圍涉及很多方面，對吧？前鋒上場。我們有—這在我們可提供的範圍內。我們有潛力——正如我們所說，這可能會推遲到第一季。

We're still hopeful that we're working hard to get it done this year, and we'll see what happens. And as we get closer to that time frame, we'll provide updates on that. But we're just we're not at a point that suggests to us that we should change that range right now. So as we get closer there, we'll give you an update.

我們仍然抱持著希望，相信我們今年能夠努力完成這項工作，讓我們拭目以待。隨著時間臨近，我們會提供最新消息。但我們目前還沒有到需要改變這個範圍的地步。所以，隨著我們越來越接近目標，我們會及時向您報告最新情況。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

大衛‧阿卡羅，摩根士丹利。

I was just curious maybe where are we in terms of economics for battery storage in PJM, just thinking about that EOS partnership. And wondering if you could characterize how you're seeing that opportunity across your fleet if you were to add battery storage.

我只是好奇，就 PJM 的電池儲能經濟性而言，我們目前處於什麼階段，同時也考慮與 EOS 的合作。我想知道，如果您在您的車隊中增加電池儲能，您如何看待這一機會？

Yes. We're not quite there, David, and sorry for using your name. Look, I think that -- we're not quite there and ready to get into that. I think we're in the early days. But as we look at the economics and look at the capital build and as the cost of batteries come down and their ability to basically think about -- and it goes back to, I'll call it, load balancing for all practical purposes, you could think of it as supply balancing, which is we've got a lot of incremental megawatts that can be run most of the hours except the peak. So why not use those to charge batteries and then discharge them during the peak.

是的。大衛，我們還沒完全達到目標，很抱歉用了你的名字。你看，我認為──我們還沒有完全達到那個程度，還沒準備好進入那個階段。我認為我們還處於早期階段。但當我們從經濟角度看待問題，考慮資本投入，以及電池成本的下降和電池的供電能力時，我們就可以開始思考——這實際上可以歸結為負載均衡，你可以把它看作是供電均衡，也就是說，我們有很多額外的兆瓦電力可以在除高峰時段以外的大部分時間運行。那為什麼不利用這些資源為電池充電，然後在電力高峰期再放電呢？

And we think that, that can become a more economic piece over time. Obviously, batteries need to continue to evolve, bring their capital cost down and then bring their optimization methodologies into play. And we think that, that works well when you think about how do you take a load that is, for the most part, a base load, and I'm talking about data centers and then think about how do you clip some of the peaks of that -- and then all you're doing is all using all the rest of the hours other than the 50 to 100. So we think it's going to show some promise, but we're on the early days of getting through the economic model. So it's just -- David, it's just too soon.

我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這會成為更經濟實惠的選擇。顯然，電池需要不斷發展，降低其初始成本，然後引入最佳化方法。我們認為，當你考慮如何處理大部分是基本負載（我指的是資料中心）時，這種方法效果很好，然後考慮如何削減一些尖峰負載——這樣你就可以充分利用除高峰時段 50 到 100 小時之外的所有剩餘時間。所以我們認為它會展現出一些前景，但我們目前還處於完善經濟模型的早期階段。所以，大衛，現在還太早了。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith，傑富瑞集團。

Look, let me clean up a couple of things here. One, on buybacks. I noticed there wasn't much activity this quarter. Do you want to speak to that real quickly? And perhaps more relevant, again, you're going to laugh here, Mac, but MNPI, anything to talk to on that front? Is there any twist there that's relevant?

聽著，讓我來整理一下這裡的東西。第一，關於回購。我注意到本季活動不多。你想快速談談這件事嗎？或許更重要的是，我知道你接下來要說的話會笑，Mac，但MNPI，在這方面有什麼想說的嗎？這裡面有什麼相關的轉折嗎？

Yes. So, Julien, with respect to the buybacks, obviously, we were fairly active during the quarter with the Freedom and Guernsey acquisition and then also getting ready for earnings and financing. So that really drove sort of the buybacks with respect to Q3, working hard to get those acquisitions done and announced and out there and then working on our Investor Day materials as well. So that was a big driver of where we stood on buybacks in Q3.

是的。所以，朱利安，關於股票回購，顯然，我們在本季度相當活躍，完成了對 Freedom 和 Guernsey 的收購，同時也在為盈利和融資​​做準備。因此，這確實推動了第三季的股票回購，我們努力完成這些收購，並宣布這些收購消息，同時我們也在準備投資者日材料。所以，這很大程度上影響了我們第三季的回購計畫。

Okay. Sorry, you guys did do buybacks in Q3. That's what I was confused by.

好的。抱歉，你們第三季確實進行了股票回購。這就是我感到困惑的地方。

No, we did not.

不，我們沒有。

We did not. And that's -- you can see that we didn't disclose it, obviously, Jordan. As Terry said, there's a lot going on during the quarter. And whether that's MNPI or getting ready for financings and blackout periods with the results and then closing Freedom and signing and Guernsey. Yes, it's just -- you can call that -- we'll talk about MNPI in arrears, maybe, and that would -- that precluded -- had a large preclusion across the quarter, so --

我們沒有。很明顯，喬丹，你可以看到我們沒有公開這件事。正如特里所說，這一個季度發生了很多事情。無論是 MNPI，還是準備融資和結果公佈前的靜默期，然後完成 Freedom 的交易並簽署 Guernsey 協議。是的，就是——你可以這麼說——我們可能會談談拖欠的MNPI，而這會——這會——在整個季度造成很大的阻礙，所以--

Absolutely. A couple of cleanup items. Is there any chance that you accelerate this Sus deal with AWS and then clean up the remainder of the uncontracted Sus here? I mean I just want to come back to that concept. I mean you talked about the ramp-up to [31 32].

絕對地。一些清潔用品。你們有沒有可能加快與 AWS 達成這項 Sus 協議，然後再清理這裡剩餘的未簽約 Sus？我的意思是，我只是想回到那個概念。我的意思是，你談到了逐步推進…[31 32]

Everyone is grappling to get this stuff faster. In theory, this is a question of execution, right, to get it done faster with you guys. Can you speak to that a little bit on the ability to ramp it up?

大家都在努力更快地獲得這些東西。理論上，這只是執行力的問題，對吧？這樣才能讓你們更快完成。能否稍微談談提升能力的問題？

Look, anecdotally, we speak about desires with respect to Amazon. With respect to the contract, we actually want to maintain confidentiality with our counterparty there. We can speak anecdotally about them speeding things up. We said it's a lever that can be pulled. We stand ready to deliver 19, 20 megawatts whenever they want to take it.

你看，就我個人經驗而言，我們談論的是對亞馬遜的渴望。關於合同，我們實際上希望與交易對手保持保密。我們可以根據一些軼事來談談它們如何加快進程。我們說這是一個可以拉的槓桿。我們隨時準備在他們需要的時候提供 19 兆瓦或 20 兆瓦的電力。

That was the obligation that we said. And if you just think about where people are going in speed to market, when you have a site that you're building at and you have the megawatts that are ready to go, that -- there's nothing more than speed to market than that. And that's about all we can talk about because we're not going to speak for Amazon. You'd have to talk to them, but we're excited about the possibility for them to ramp up. And if they did, we're willing and able to serve.

那是我們所說的義務。如果你想想人們在產品上市速度方面追求的是什麼，當你正在建立一個網站，並且擁有隨時可用的兆瓦電力時——沒有什麼比這更能快速上市了。我們只能談論這些，因為我們不能代表亞馬遜發言。你得跟他們談談，但我們對他們有可能擴大規模感到興奮。如果他們真的需要，我們隨時準備好並能夠提供服務。

Excellent. All right. No, fair enough. I appreciate that. And then lastly, just would you be in a position to get another gas contract here prior to the close of these acquisitions?

出色的。好的。沒錯，說得有道理。我很感激。最後，在這些收購完成之前，您是否有可能再獲得一份天然氣合約？

Or would you tie those two together to the extent to which you get the acquisition gets kicked out in 1Q?

或者你會將這兩者聯繫起來，以至於收購在第一季就被否決？

Look, I think -- well, you've written about this, frankly. So it's a good thing to have a discussion. I think that when we thought about this, and let's step back before Freedom and Guernsey. Before we had the announcement of Freedom and Guernsey, we were already talking about working on the next deal. And that was even before we revamped the 1920 front of the meter, and that's just a continuation of the process.

你看，我覺得──坦白說，你已經寫過這方面的內容了。所以進行討論是件好事。我認為，當我們思考這個問題時，讓我們先回顧一下自由和格恩西島。在宣布與弗里德姆和格恩西島達成協議之前，我們就已經在討論下一個協議的談判事宜了。而這還是在我們改造 1920 年的儀錶板正面之前，這只是這個過程的延續。

And that's why when we looked at it, we were talking about we have Montour, we have Martins Creek, we still have 300 megawatts available there.

所以，當我們審視這個問題時，我們談到我們有蒙圖爾，我們有馬丁斯克里克，我們那裡還有 300 兆瓦的可用電力。

So I don't see the intersection of those two as reality. Obviously, what happens with the Freedom & Guernsey acquisition is if we do a deal, we would eat into that amount of megawatts that we currently have and therefore, Freedom and Guernsey reloads the bank. So that's how we view it.

所以我不認為這兩者之間有交集。顯然，收購 Freedom & Guernsey 後，如果我們達成交易，就會消耗我們目前擁有的兆瓦電力，因此 Freedom & Guernsey 可以補充資金。這就是我們的看法。

That concludes our allotted time for questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mac for closing remarks.

我們的提問時間到此結束。現在我想把電話轉回給麥克，請他做總結發言。

Yes. So, thank you, Michelle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us and for the Q&A period. We tried to spend some extra time, and I know there's a couple of people still in the queue that we didn't get to. We're happy to take your questions and look forward to seeing everybody in the balance of this year and early next year with a busy schedule on the road at conferences. And I appreciate everybody's interest in Talen, and we look forward to continuing to execute. Have a great day.

是的。所以，謝謝米歇爾，也謝謝大家的參與和問答環節。我們盡量多花了一些時間，我知道還有幾個人在排隊，我們沒能服務到他們。我們很樂意回答大家的問題，並期待在今年餘下的時間和明年年初與大家見面，屆時我們將在各個會議上度過繁忙的日程。我感謝大家對Talen的關注，我們期待繼續推動專案進度。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。