Talen Energy Corp (TLN) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Talen Energy Corporation quarter 2, 2025 earnings call. I am Frans, and I'll be the operator assisting you today. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加 Talen Energy Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我是弗朗斯 (Frans),今天我將擔任協助您的接線生。(操作員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Sergio Castro. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把電話轉給塞爾吉奧·卡斯特羅。請繼續。

  • Sergio Castro - Vice President and Treasurer

    Sergio Castro - Vice President and Treasurer

  • Thank you, Frans. Welcome to Talen Energy's second quarter 2025 conference call. Speaking today are Chief Executive Officer, Mac McFarland; and Chief Financial Officer, Terry Nutt. They are joined by other Talen senior executives to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

    謝謝你,弗蘭斯。歡迎參加 Talen Energy 2025 年第二季電話會議。今天發言的是執行長 Mac McFarland 和財務長 Terry Nutt。如有需要,Talen 其他高階主管也會加入他們,在今天電話會議的第二部分解答問題。

  • We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Talen's website, talenenergy.com. Today, we are making some forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions. Actual results could differ due to risk factors and other considerations described in our financial disclosures and other SEC filings.

    我們今天早上發布了盈利報告和演示文稿,所有內容均可在 Talen 網站 talenenergy.com 的「投資者關係」部分找到。今天,我們根據目前的預期和假設做出一些前瞻性陳述。由於我們的財務揭露和其他美國證券交易委員會文件中所述的風險因素和其他考慮因素,實際結果可能有所不同。

  • Today's discussion also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided information reconciling our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release and the appendix of our presentation.

    今天的討論也涉及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們在收益報告和簡報附錄中提供了將非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標進行調整的資訊。

  • With that, I will now turn the call over to Mac.

    說完這些,我現在將發言權交給 Mac。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Sergio, and welcome, everyone, to our early morning call here. As always, we appreciate your continued interest in Talen Energy. It is shaping up to be quite a year in the IPP space. And we don't foresee things changing anytime soon. Thematically, all remains the same. AI continues to drive data center growth. And in fact, the hyperscalers continue to increase their CapEx plans year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.

    謝謝您,塞爾吉奧,歡迎大家參加我們的早晨電話會議。像往常一樣,我們感謝您對 Talen Energy 的持續關注。對於 IPP 領域來說,這將會是相當不平凡的一年。我們預計情況不會很快改變。從主題上來說,一切都保持不變。人工智慧持續推動資料中心的發展。事實上,超大規模企業正在逐年、逐季增加資本支出計畫。

  • Power markets continue to show signs of things getting tighter, driven by demand, and this includes both AEP and PPL increasing their backlog from data centers this quarter to new highs. And we believe there is more opportunity for Talen to create value in this environment. That said, this is going to be a relatively routine earnings call for the second quarter as we have had a flurry of activity recently behind us.

    在需求的推動下,電力市場持續顯示出趨緊的跡象,其中包括 AEP 和 PPL 本季資料中心的積壓訂單均創下新高。我們相信,在這種環境下,Talen 有更多機會創造價值。話雖如此,由於我們最近有一系列的活動,這將是第二季相對常規的收益電話會議。

  • In the second quarter, turning to Slide 2, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $90 million and an adjusted free cash flow use of $78 million, which reflects the extended outage at Susquehanna. While we prefer to have our maintenance outages at Susquehanna or any of our fossil fleet units, completely scripted down to hourly activity, we do account for discovery.

    在第二季度,翻到幻燈片 2,我們實現了 9000 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 7800 萬美元的調整後自由現金流使用量,這反映了 Susquehanna 的長期停電。雖然我們更傾向於將 Susquehanna 或任何化石燃料機組的維護停機完全安排在每小時的活動中,但我們確實考慮到了發現。

  • And the work we discovered at Susquehanna enabled us to get increased megawatts out of Unit 2. And in fact, we are seeing 75 megawatts plus already. We will use what we have learned during this outage and incorporates similar work into next spring's Unit 1 outage where we expect to extend the outage, which shortened the overall time frame versus this spring because now we can plan ahead, and we believe we will find similar levels of megawatt recovery.

    我們在薩斯奎漢納所做的工作使我們能夠從 2 號機組中獲得更多兆瓦的電力。事實上,我們已經看到了 75 兆瓦以上。我們將利用這次停電期間的經驗教訓,並將類似的工作納入明年春季 1 號機組的停電中,我們預計將延長停電時間,這將縮短與今年春季相比的總體時間,因為現在我們可以提前計劃,我們相信我們將找到類似水平的兆瓦恢復。

  • On June 11, we expanded and revamped our agreement with Amazon to a front-of-the-meter arrangement for a total of 1.9 gigawatts, doubling the size of the original contract and eliminating regulatory uncertainty, a win for both us and AWS. And the collaboration between us continues to advance as the campus construction ramps up.

    6 月 11 日,我們擴大並修改了與亞馬遜的協議,將總容量擴大到 1.9 千兆瓦,使原合約規模擴大了一倍,並消除了監管方面的不確定性,這對我們和 AWS 來說都是雙贏。隨著校園建設的推進,我們之間的合作也不斷地前進。

  • As a subsequent event, we entered into agreements to purchase the Freedom Energy Center in Guernsey Power Plant, adding low carbon, highly efficient CCGTs to our fleet and expanding our capability to serve large loads and enter into long-term contracts. Not to mention that these plants will add over 40% free cash flow per share accretion in 2026 and more than 50% for the following two years on a mostly merchant basis, mostly merchant because the acquisition comes with a small hedge book and existing gas contracts.

    隨後,我們簽署了購買根西島自由能源中心發電廠的協議,為我們的機組增加了低碳、高效的 CCGT,並擴大了我們服務大負載和簽訂長期合約的能力。更不用說這些工廠將在 2026 年增加每股超過 40% 的自由現金流,並在接下來的兩年內增加超過 50% 的自由現金流,主要是以商業為基礎,主要是商業,因為收購附帶一個小的對沖賬簿和現有的天然氣合約。

  • We are excited about adding these assets to our portfolio. We have filed FERC 203 applications for both plants, and we have filed requisite HSR filings as of today and are targeting close by the end of the year. As you may recall from our September Investor Day, our earnings in the second half of 2025 will be higher because they include three important factors.

    我們很高興將這些資產添加到我們的投資組合中。我們已經為這兩家工廠提交了 FERC 203 申請,並且截至今天我們已經提交了必要的 HSR 文件,目標是在今年年底前完成。您可能還記得我們 9 月的投資者日,我們 2025 年下半年的收益將會更高,因為其中包含三個重要因素。

  • First, the 2025, '26 capacity pricing. Second, the RMR impacts of our brand insurers and Wagner plants, which underscore our commitment to support grid reliability in Maryland. And third, the ramp-up of the AWS contract. Terry will walk through this in more detail in a few minutes.

    首先,2025年、2026年的容量定價。其次,我們的品牌保險公司和瓦格納工廠的 RMR 影響,這強調了我們支持馬裡蘭州電網可靠性的承諾。第三,AWS 合約的增加。幾分鐘後,Terry 將更詳細地講解這一點。

  • With half of the year behind us, we are reaffirming 2025 guidance. We will provide a further update on 2026 and our 2027, 2028 outlook at our investor update on September 9. We are switching from an in-person meeting to virtual for this event. And just to align expectations, we intend to provide guidance and outlook, taking into consideration the new plants and the recent tax benefit changes.

    今年已經過去一半了,我們重申 2025 年的指導方針。我們將在 9 月 9 日的投資者更新中提供有關 2026 年以及 2027 年、2028 年展望的進一步更新。我們將把本次活動的會議形式從面對面會議改為虛擬會議。為了符合預期,我們打算提供指導和展望,同時考慮到新工廠和最近的稅收優惠變化。

  • You shouldn't expect some big deal announcement at this event, as you know, we don't work that way. That said, don't take my prior comments out of context. We are relentlessly and continuously focused on execution, and you'll be the first to know when we add to the Talen flywheel. Lastly, we were added to two Russell equity indices in June, driving passive fund demand for our stock and continued shareholder rotation.

    你不應該期待在這次活動中宣布一些重大消息,正如你所知,我們不是那樣做的。話雖如此,請不要斷章取義我之前的評論。我們堅持不懈地持續關注執行,當我們添加 Talen 飛輪時,您將第一個知道。最後,我們在六月被納入兩個羅素股票指數,推動了對我們股票的被動基金需求和持續的股東輪換。

  • I am proud of what the team has accomplished to date, while setting the stage for additional long-term value creation. As always, none of this is possible without the hard work of every employee at Talen. So I'd like to thank them for powering the future at Talen.

    我為團隊迄今為止所取得的成就感到自豪,同時也為創造更多的長期價值奠定了基礎。一如既往,如果沒有 Talen 每位員工的辛勤工作,這一切都不可能實現。所以我要感謝他們為 Talen 的未來提供動力。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Terry.

    我現在將電話轉給特里。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Mac, and good morning, everyone. Turning now to our most recent announcement, the strategic acquisition of the Freedom and Guernsey generation plant. As we stated a few weeks ago, we are excited about the acquisition of these assets and believe the transactions provide several key additions to Talen. The acquisition will increase our generating capacity by roughly 3 gigawatts in core PJM market and complements our existing commercial and marketing capabilities, while also providing earnings and cash flow diversification for the business.

    謝謝你,麥克,大家早安。現在來談談我們最近宣布的對自由和根西發電廠的策略性收購。正如我們幾週前所說,我們對收購這些資產感到非常興奮,並相信這些交易將為 Talen 帶來幾個關鍵的補充。此次收購將使我們在核心 PJM 市場的發電能力增加約 3 千兆瓦,補充我們現有的商業和行銷能力,同時也為業務帶來收益和現金流多樣化。

  • The assets are well positioned in a number of ways. First, the plants occupy a valuable position in the overall supply stack and are among the newest and lowest heat rate plant in PJM and include over 300 megawatts of duct firing capability. Second, Freedom and Guernsey are well positioned for fuel supply, with the plant sitting in two of the most prolific natural gas formations in the US, the Marcellus and Utica, providing ample natural gas supply and reliable access to pipeline infrastructure.

    這些資產在許多方面都處於有利地位。首先,這些電廠在整個供應體系中佔據著寶貴的地位,是 PJM 中最新、熱耗率最低的電廠之一,擁有超過 300 兆瓦的管道燃燒能力。其次,自由和根西島擁有良好的燃料供應條件,該工廠位於美國兩個最豐富的天然氣產區——馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡,可提供充足的天然氣供應和可靠的管道基礎設施。

  • Third, these plants are located in some of the fastest-growing data center markets in the US, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Freedom is located only 3 miles from Susquehanna and the AWS campus, while Guernsey gives us access to the Columbus, Ohio data center market. Ohio has a well-established data center market with an existing and significant hyperscaler presence that continues to grow, as evidenced by AEP's recent update of 9 gigawatts of large load demand growth by 2029. And we believe our core capabilities and strategy translate well into this market.

    第三,這些工廠位於美國成長最快的資料中心市場賓州和俄亥俄州。自由地距離薩斯奎漢納和 AWS 園區僅 3 英里,而根西島則讓我們可以進入俄亥俄州哥倫布市的資料中心市場。俄亥俄州擁有成熟的資料中心市場,現有超大規模資料中心佔有重要地位,且該市場仍在持續成長,AEP 最近更新的預測顯示,到 2029 年,大負載需求將成長 9 千兆瓦,就證明了這一點。我們相信我們的核心能力和策略能夠很好地適應這個市場。

  • Turning to Slide 4. In June 2025, we entered into a new PPA with AWS, expanding the existing nuclear energy relationship. The existing Susquehanna co-located load arrangement between Talen and Amazon will transition to a front-of-the-meter arrangement after the completion of transmission reconfigurations expected in the spring of 2026, concurrent with Susquehanna's annual refueling outage.

    翻到幻燈片 4。2025年6月,我們與AWS簽署了新的PPA,擴大了現有的核能關係。預計在 2026 年春季完成傳輸重新配置後,與 Susquehanna 年度加油中斷同時發生,塔倫和亞馬遜之間現有的 Susquehanna 共置負載安排將過渡到電錶前安排。

  • Another feature of the deal that we think is key is that the arrangement provides flexibility to deliver power to other Amazon sites across Pennsylvania. At the full contract quantity, Talen is expected to provide AWS with 1,920 megawatts of carbon-free nuclear power from Susquehanna through 2042, for operations that support AI and other cloud technologies. Looking at the campus today, AWS continues to build. We're delivering electrons and receiving dollars.

    我們認為該協議的另一個關鍵特點是,該安排為向賓州其他亞馬遜站點輸送電力提供了靈活性。按照全部合約數量,Talen 預計將在 2042 年前為 AWS 提供來自薩斯奎哈納的 1,920 兆瓦無碳核電,用於支援人工智慧和其他雲端技術的營運。放眼今天的園區,AWS 仍在繼續建造。我們正在交付電子並接收美元。

  • Turning to Slide 5. We continue to see strong energy fundamentals in the PJM market, further supported by the most recent capacity auction. Compared to the prior year, peak summer heat and demand are driving steady increases in forward summer spark spreads. Recently, we've experienced several PJM Max generation alert events. Overall, Q2 2025 weather was cooler than the same period in 2024 as measured by cooling degree days, but average electricity demand remained flat. We believe that this is a sign of demand growth in the market and expect this trend to continue.

    翻到幻燈片 5。我們繼續看到 PJM 市場能源基本面強勁,最近的產能拍賣進一步支撐了這一趨勢。與前一年相比,夏季高溫和需求推動遠期夏季火花價差穩定上升。最近,我們經歷了幾次 PJM Max 發電警報事件。整體而言,以冷氣度日數衡量,2025 年第二季的天氣比 2024 年同期涼爽,但平均電力需求保持穩定。我們認為這是市場需求成長的跡象,並預計這種趨勢將會持續下去。

  • Moving to Slide 6. Let's look at our year-to-date financial and operating results. Our team continues to deliver from an operational perspective. Our fleet ran well during the periods of high demand in Q2, demonstrating the value of dispatchable fleet and generating 17 terawatt hours with an equivalent for satisfactor of 1.8%.

    移至幻燈片 6。讓我們來看看今年迄今為止的財務和經營業績。我們的團隊繼續從營運角度提供服務。我們的車隊在第二季的高需求期間運作良好,證明了可調度車隊的價值,並產生了 17 太瓦時的電力,相當於 1.8% 的滿意度。

  • We had a busy year so far of maintenance outages and high demand across the system, and our team in the field continues their relentless effort to maintain and operate the fleet. The commitment of the team to operate in a safe and reliable manner is an important part of Talen's value proposition.

    今年到目前為止非常忙碌,整個系統維護中斷且需求量很大,我們現場團隊繼續不懈地維護和營運車隊。團隊致力於以安全可靠的方式運作是 Talen 價值主張的重要組成部分。

  • Now turning to financial results for the second quarter of 2025. Talen is reporting adjusted EBITDA of $90 million and an adjusted free cash flow use of $78 million. Our largest recurring maintenance project is the annual spring refueling outage at Susquehanna. The incremental maintenance investment during the extended average this year was approximately $30 million for the spring, along with approximately 30 days of additional average tons.

    現在來看看 2025 年第二季的財務表現。Talen 報告調整後的 EBITDA 為 9,000 萬美元,調整後的自由現金流量使用量為 7,800 萬美元。我們最大的經常性維護項目是薩斯奎哈納每年春季的加油停駛。今年春季延長平均期間的增量維護投資約為 3,000 萬美元,同時還有約 30 天的額外平均噸位。

  • As we mentioned before, we expect a payback period of less than two years on this investment. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was also impacted by the incremental interest on the Term Loan B that we issued at the end of last year. As Mac mentioned earlier, starting on June 1, our earnings now include the higher 2025/2026 PJM capacity pricing of approximately $270 per megawatt day. And the impacts of the reliability must-run arrangements.

    正如我們之前提到的,我們預計這項投資的回報期不到兩年。本季調整後的自由現金流也受到我們去年年底發放的定期貸款 B 的增量利息的影響。正如 Mac 之前提到的,從 6 月 1 日開始,我們的收益現在包括更高的 2025/2026 PJM 容量定價,約為每兆瓦天 270 美元。以及可靠性必運轉安排的影響。

  • Now moving to guidance on Slide 8. As Mac noted earlier today, we are reaffirming our previously announced 2025 guidance ranges. We continue to remain committed to returning capital to shareholders and have repurchased approximately 23% of our outstanding shares for approximately $2 billion at an average price of around $150 per share, creating significant value for Talen. That's all since the start of 2024.

    現在轉到投影片 8 上的指示。正如 Mac 今天早些時候指出的那樣,我們重申先前宣布的 2025 年指導範圍。我們繼續致力於向股東返還資本,並以每股約 150 美元的平均價格回購了約 23% 的流通股,耗資約 20 億美元,為 Talen 創造了巨大價值。自 2024 年以來,情況就是這樣。

  • We have approximately $1 billion in buyback capacity remaining through year-end 2026 and are targeting $500 million of annual share repurchases during the post-acquisition deleveraging period. Once we reach our targeted leverage of 3.5 times or less, we intend to return 70% of capital back to shareholders on a significantly higher free cash flow base.

    到 2026 年底,我們剩餘的回購能力約為 10 億美元,並計劃在收購後的去槓桿期間每年回購 5 億美元的股票。一旦我們達到 3.5 倍或更低的目標槓桿率,我們打算在顯著更高的自由現金流基礎上將 70% 的資本返還給股東。

  • Turning to Slide 10. As of August 4, our forecasted net leverage ratio was approximately 2.7 times, well below our target. In addition, we have approximately $861 million of liquidity with over $161 million of cash on the balance sheet and the full availability of our revolver. After our initial financing of the Freedom and Guernsey acquisition, we'll be focusing on debt pay down in order to reach our targeted net leverage ratio by the end of 2026, while also targeting $500 million of share repurchases.

    翻到幻燈片 10。截至8月4日,我們預測的淨槓桿比率約為2.7倍,遠低於我們的目標。此外,我們擁有約 8.61 億美元的流動資金,資產負債表上有超過 1.61 億美元的現金,並且可以充分使用我們的循環信貸。在對 Freedom and Guernsey 收購進行初始融資後,我們將專注於償還債務,以便在 2026 年底之前達到目標淨槓桿率,同時也計劃回購 5 億美元的股票。

  • With that, I'll hand the discussion back to Mac.

    說完這些,我將把討論交還給 Mac。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Terry. Slide 11 has our upcoming events, and we hope to see you at several of these events in the future. Let me conclude with this before opening the line, it continues to be a great time to be in the IPP space. It's very exciting, and we think that will continue through the end of the decade.

    偉大的。謝謝,特里。投影片 11 是我們即將舉行的活動,我們希望在未來的幾場活動中見到您。在開始之前,我想先說一下,現在仍然是 IPP 領域的黃金時代。這是非常令人興奮的,我們認為這種趨勢將持續到本世紀末。

  • Over the past several years, we've positioned Talen well to create value in the next years ahead. We look forward to continue to executing, focusing on free cash flow per share growth, derisking our cash flows through our contracting strategy and maintaining the balance sheet and shareholder discipline we have demonstrated for the past two years. We appreciate everyone's interest in Talen and for joining us on the call today.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們已經為 Talen 做好了充分的定位,以便在未來幾年創造價值。我們期待繼續執行,重點關注每股自由現金流的成長,透過我們的收縮策略降低現金流的風險,並維持我們在過去兩年中表現出的資產負債表和股東紀律。我們感謝大家對 Talen 的關注以及今天參加我們的電話會議。

  • With that, we'll turn it back to the operator and open the line for questions.

    這樣,我們將把電話轉回給接線員,並開通熱線來回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

    (操作員指令)。

  • Nicholas Campanella, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的尼古拉斯·坎帕內拉。

  • Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

    Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

  • All right. Thanks for keeping the headlines quiet today. So you just kind of talked about some of the Susquehanna work you're doing, and it sounds like you have an extra 75 megawatts coming in the Unit 2, the potential for the same at Unit 1, I think. So can you just remind us, should we be thinking about like unallocated nameplate now going to 450? Or how should we think about that?

    好的。感謝您今天沒有發表任何新聞頭條。所以您剛才談到了您正在進行的一些 Susquehanna 工作,聽起來您在 2 號機組中額外獲得了 75 兆瓦的電力,我認為 1 號機組也具有同樣的潛力。那你能提醒我們嗎,我們是否應該考慮將未分配的銘牌數量增加到 450?或者我們應該如何思考這個問題?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, first, Nick, maybe just to address your first comment, we don't like keeping things quiet, but I think we've had a flurry of activity behind us. So it is a little bit of a quiet quarter for us here on the earnings call. But with respect to the nuclear unit, when you think about the 75 megawatts that we're seeing on Unit 2, and I said similar, so don't take that as fully 75 on Unit 1, it has to be relative to some number.

    是的。好吧,首先,尼克,也許只是為了回應你的第一條評論,我們不喜歡保持沉默,但我認為我們已經採取了一系列行動。因此,對我們來說,這是一個比較平靜的季度,財報電話會議也比較平靜。但就核電機組而言,當你想到我們在 2 號機組上看到的 75 兆瓦時,我說的是類似,所以不要認為 1 號機組的功率完全是 75 兆瓦,它必須與某個數字相關。

  • And when we think about it, when we go from maintenance outage or refueling outage over a two-year cycle, there is degradation that happens because tolerances loosen up, you have steam that starts to bypass, things of that nature, okay? And you see that, and you see that in five, 10, 20 type megawatts over time. You see that in the fossil units, too, and you go back in, and you retighten up the unit.

    當我們考慮這一點時,當我們在兩年的周期內經歷維護停機或加油停機時,就會發生性能下降,因為公差會放鬆,蒸汽會開始繞過,諸如此類的事情,好嗎?您可以看到,隨著時間的推移,發電量將達到 5、10、20 兆瓦。您也可以在化石單位中看到這一點,然後您返回並重新收緊該單位。

  • Here, we found incremental we had been seeing as a result of the uprates that occurred 10 years ago. We had started to see some degradation in the extraction steam system around the turbine, we started to see some leaking there in the way that the steam flowed. And so we went and tightened that back up and got back to where we were previously. So I wouldn't say that's necessarily that it's incremental megawatts.

    在這裡,我們發現了 10 年前的上調所帶來的增量。我們開始看到渦輪機周圍的抽汽系統出現一些性能下降,我們開始看到蒸汽流動過程中出現一些洩漏。因此,我們重新進行了調整,並恢復到了原來的狀態。因此,我不會說這一定是增量兆瓦。

  • Now we're working through, would we be able to go back and look at where we are with our capacity injection rights, what we are able to offer into the capacity auction, et cetera. But I wouldn't necessarily see this as an upgrade. This is sort of maintaining the system and getting back.

    現在我們正在努力,我們是否能夠回過頭來看看我們的產能注入權處於什麼位置,我們能夠在產能拍賣中提供什麼,等等。但我並不一定將此視為升級。這是一種維護系統並恢復的方法。

  • It's just that when you look at the capital versus the recovery of putting in to get these megawatts back, you could have essentially allowed some of this bypass to occur. But because we decided to tighten things up, we get megawatts back and that's what we've said is around two years or less. So it depends on where you're relative. I wouldn't add it to the nameplate capacity. It just wouldn't do that. That's not how it works. It's just that you're always trying to keep yourself right there at that point. This helps us get back to that point.

    只是,當你將資本與恢復這些兆瓦的投入進行比較時,你基本上可以允許部分繞行發生。但因為我們決定收緊政策,我們收回了兆瓦的電力,這就是我們所說的大約兩年或更短的時間。所以這取決於你的親戚在哪裡。我不會將其添加到銘牌容量中。它就是不會這麼做。事實並非如此。只是你總是試著讓自己停留在那個位置。這有助於我們回到這一點。

  • Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

    Nicholas Campanella - Analyst

  • Okay, noted. That's really helpful. I appreciate that. And then just on the share repurchase, I think you did roughly $100 million year-to-date. Are you still on track to the $500 million into year-end here? And any updated thoughts on the repurchase, especially with the stock rerating how it has?

    好的,記下了。這真的很有幫助。我很感激。就股票回購而言,我認為今年迄今為止你們的回購金額大約是 1 億美元。到年底,您還能達成 5 億美元的目標嗎?對於回購有什麼最新想法嗎,尤其是股票重新評級的情況?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So 2 things. I'll hand this over to Terry. First of all, by the way, we are looking at what are the potentials to upgrade the units at Susquehanna. We've said we've committed to doing that. And that plus exploring the SMR with AWS as part of the contract. So we're looking at that. And those would be cheap uprate megawatts. We don't have anything to give you on that right now because we want to make sure we do the engineering and the cost analysis and then give that to you, but we are exploring that.

    是的。所以有兩件事。我會把這個交給特里。首先,順便說一下,我們正在研究升級 Susquehanna 單位的潛力。我們已經說過我們致力於這樣做。此外,作為合約的一部分,我們還將與 AWS 一起探索 SMR。所以我們正在研究這個問題。這些將是廉價的升級兆瓦。我們現在沒有任何資訊可以提供給您,因為我們想確保我們完成工程和成本分析,然後將其提供給您,但我們正在探索這一點。

  • Second thing on the share repurchase, roughly $100 million year-to-date. I think it's in the $80 something, but roughly $100 million. I'll turn it over to Terry for the exact numbers. But like, we were able to do that at a point in time. I'm not going to try to position this hiding behind MNPI, but we did have MNPI. We restructured the 2.0 contract. We bought Freedom and Guernsey and that limited our ability in the second quarter.

    第二件事是股票回購,今年迄今已回購約 1 億美元。我認為價值在 80 多美元,但大約是 1 億美元。我將把具體數字交給特里。但是,我們能夠在某個時間點做到這一點。我不會試圖將其定位在 MNPI 背後,但我們確實有 MNPI。我們重組了2.0合約。我們收購了 Freedom 和 Guernsey,這限制了我們第二季的能力。

  • So are we on track? I don't know. If you did a pro rata, we should be at $250 million out of $500 million, but we've done $100 million. We're committed to returning capital to shareholders. We're there to be supportive of the equity and that is our commitment.

    那我們進展順利嗎?我不知道。如果按比例計算,我們應該從 5 億美元中拿出 2.5 億美元,但我們已經拿出 1 億美元了。我們致力於向股東返還資本。我們會支持公平,這是我們的承諾。

  • Terry, anything you want to add?

    特里,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. No, I would just add, Nick, that obviously as part of the Freedom and Guernsey acquisition, we plan to finance it entirely by debt. And so we'll take on that incremental leverage. And when we take a look at that incremental leverage and what we intend to do from a deleveraging standpoint, we show $500 million of share repurchases that we would execute through the end of 2026 during that deleveraging period.

    是的。不,尼克,我只想補充一點,顯然作為自由和根西島收購的一部分,我們計劃完全透過債務來融資。因此我們將承擔這一增量槓桿。當我們從去槓桿的角度審視增量槓桿和我們打算做的事情時,我們發現在去槓桿期間,到 2026 年底我們將執行 5 億美元的股票回購。

  • But the bigger benefit comes after we get delevered and rotate our net leverage back to below 3.5 times, we have a higher free cash flow base that then we intend to take the same policy and the same approach of using 70% of that to return capital to shareholders. So that's how we'll move from a direction of travel.

    但更大的好處是,在我們去槓桿並將淨槓桿率調回到 3.5 倍以下之後,我們擁有更高的自由現金流基礎,然後我們打算採取相同的政策和相同的方法,使用其中的 70% 來向股東返還資本。這就是我們旅行的方向。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • And still maintain that net leverage of less than 3.5x and get there by the targeting by the end of 2026, as you mentioned. Yes. Thanks, Nick.

    並且仍然保持低於 3.5 倍的淨槓桿率,並在 2026 年底實現目標,正如您所說。是的。謝謝,尼克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • I just wanted to turn to the BRA, if I could. Just wondering, any updated thoughts you could share coming out of the PJM auction here regarding supply-demand trends. And particularly in the light of your recent acquisition, just wondering any thoughts on those trends in the auction and how it impacts the acquisition as well.

    如果可以的話,我只想轉向 BRA。只是想知道,您能否分享有關 PJM 拍賣的供需趨勢的任何最新想法。特別是考慮到您最近的收購,我只是想知道您對拍賣中的趨勢有何看法以及它如何影響收購。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So for the most recent auction, Jeremy, that cleared a couple of weeks ago, I think a couple of interesting pieces of information there. One, obviously, the demand and the load growth we continue to see. We expect that you'll continue to see that in subsequent auctions.

    是的。因此,傑里米,對於幾週前結束的最近的拍賣,我認為其中有一些有趣的資訊。首先,顯然,我們繼續看到需求和負載的成長。我們預計您會在後續拍賣中繼續看到這種情況。

  • I think Mac mentioned this in the prepared remarks, we have seen a supply response, about 2.7 gigs of additional generation that have come in, which, quite frankly, in the last few auctions is something that when you think about a supply response, that's the largest response that we've seen in the last few auctions.

    我認為 Mac 在準備好的發言中提到了這一點,我們已經看到了供應反應,大約有 2.7 千兆字節的額外發電量進入,坦率地說,在最近的幾次拍賣中,當你考慮供應反應時,這是我們在最近幾次拍賣中看到的最大反應。

  • But overall, we still see it as constructive. We still see sort of this continued trend as we move forward into December. And obviously, when we get the next auction, we'll get the parameters here in the next month or so. And then obviously, we'll have to take a look at those and sort of do our bottoms-up fundamental view of how do we think those parameters impact what we see in December.

    但總體來說,我們仍然認為它是建設性的。隨著進入 12 月,我們仍然看到這種持續的趨勢。顯然,當我們進行下一次拍賣時,我們將在下個月左右獲得參數。然後顯然,我們必須研究這些參數,並從自下而上的基本角度來看待這些參數將如何影響我們 12 月的預測。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think, Jeremy, just to add to what Terry said is when you look at the capacity markets, they're doing what they're supposed to be doing. They're sending a signal that says that the demand is growing. There needs to be a supply response. Obviously, it was capped.

    是的。傑里米,我想補充一下特里所說的,當你觀察容量市場時,你會發現他們正在做他們應該做的事情。他們發出的信號表明需求正在增長。需要有供應響應。顯然,它被限制了。

  • And this next auction will have a cap as well as the floor. And it would have cleared PJM says around 390 without the cap. And if you think about supply and demand fundamentals, you've got to send that market signal for people to buy, and we've got to get it longer dated. And we're committed to working on the capacity market reforms after this 2027, 2028 BRA gets run this December ahead of the May 2028, 2029.

    下次拍賣將設有上限和下限。PJM 表示,如果沒有上限,它將清除約 390 個。如果你考慮供需基本面,你就必須向人們發出購買的市場訊號,而且我們必須讓它持續更久。我們致力於在 2027 年、2028 年 BRA 於今年 12 月、2028 年 5 月前實施容量市場改革。

  • And next year, May 2026 will be for 2028, 2029. And it is working. The markets are working. If you look, I think that there will be. There's talk about demand response. I think there will be demand response. I think that there will be supply response. There was a supply response, as Terry said, they're over 2 gigs in this most recent.

    明年,即 2026 年 5 月,將是 2028 年、2029 年。並且它正在發揮作用。市場正在發揮作用。如果你看一下,我認為會有的。有關於需求響應的討論。我認為會有需求響應。我認為會有供應反應。正如特里所說,有供應響應,最近他們有超過 2 場演出。

  • I think you see announcements of development projects, whether it'd be shipping port or home or city. I think you see other people talking about new CCGTs and ways to contract those new CCGTs with data centers to bring incremental megawatts to the grid. All of that basically says that the market just needs time to catch up, and it is working. The signals are sending there.

    我想您會看到開發案的公告,無論是航運港口、住宅還是城市。我想你會看到其他人在談論新的 CCGT,以及將這些新的 CCGT 與資料中心簽訂合約以將增量兆瓦電力輸送到電網的方法。所有這些基本上都表明市場只是需要時間來趕上,而且它正在發揮作用。信號正在發送到那裡。

  • And look, it's proven to be advantageous to have the deregulated market for the consumers. If you look at energy and capacity prices over the last decade, they have been flat. I think there's been a lot of discussion about the impact on consumers and things of that nature. And it's really just this temporal year-over-year issue that people say, well, the bills have gone up.

    事實證明,放鬆管制的市場對消費者是有利的。如果你看一下過去十年的能源和容量價格,你會發現它們一直保持穩定。我認為關於對消費者的影響以及諸如此類的事情已經有很多討論。這其實只是暫時的逐年問題,人們說,帳單又漲了。

  • But yes, but if you look over 10 years, bills have actually been flat on an energy and capacity basis and that's flat on a nominal basis, which means on a real basis, they've actually declined as a percentage of disposable income. And so it is deregulation in the restructured markets have provided the lowest cost to consumer. And that was the objective of going into the deregulated markets several decades ago.

    但是的,但是如果你回顧過去 10 年,你會發現帳單在能源和容量基礎上實際上是持平的,在名義基礎上也是持平的,這意味著在實際基礎上,它們佔可支配收入的百分比實際上是下降的。因此,重組後的市場放鬆管制為消費者提供了最低的成本。這就是幾十年前進入放鬆管制市場的目標。

  • So we're at this point where the markets are sending a signal says that supply needs to come on, demand is growing. And I think things are working and I applaud PJM for pushing through and getting these capacity auctions taken care of so that we can get back to a lot more foresight 3 years in advance in May of next year.

    因此,我們現在處於市場發出訊號表明供應需要增加、需求正在成長的階段。我認為事情正在順利進行,我讚揚 PJM 推動並完成這些容量拍賣,以便我們能夠在明年 5 月提前 3 年恢復更多的遠見。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. Yes. No, that makes sense on the pricing trends there. And maybe just continuing, I guess, with the broader attention on path to generation here in Pennsylvania, how do you see your existing assets competing against initiatives like PPL Genco? I mean, certainly, steel in the ground carries a lot of advantages there. But do you expect the Pennsylvania government's focus on new supply to impact how the market comes together there?

    知道了。是的。不,這對於那裡的定價趨勢來說是有道理的。我想,也許只是繼續,隨著賓州人們對發電道路的廣泛關注,您如何看待現有資產與 PPL Genco 等計劃的競爭?我的意思是,地下埋設鋼材確實有許多優點。但是您是否認為賓州政府對新供應的關注會影響那裡的市場發展?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think there's always the push pull. But look, we had the ability to buy things at a discount to new build costs. And we think that, that's advantaged when it comes to being able to contract those megawatts. And if things were to converge on new build, which is a lot of the discussion about bringing new build generation with a data center and a contract, we've always said we'd do that, too.

    是的。我認為總是存在著推拉作用。但是,你看,我們有能力以低於新建成本的價格購買東西。我們認為,這對於簽訂這些兆瓦的合約具有優勢。如果事情要集中在新建專案上,也就是關於透過資料中心和合約帶來新建專案的討論很多,我們一直說我們也會這樣做。

  • If you get the right returns, the right risk profile, et cetera, we said we'd contribute by building. And we continue to explore and advance the permitting aspects and interconnections of our existing sites and thinking about how do we leverage our existing sites to do so. But I don't know that the market is necessarily there yet. We've spoken a lot about sort of this five-year, five-year, five-year, where the next five-years are really about 20 to 40 hours, which is really a capacity issue where you'll see demand response, you'll see people invest more in the current assets, that will solve that 20 to 40 hours a year.

    如果您獲得正確的回報、正確的風險狀況等等,我們說我們會透過建設做出貢獻。我們將繼續探索和推進現有站點的許可方面和互連,並思考如何利用現有站點來實現這一點。但我不知道市場是否已經存在。我們已經談論了很多關於這種五年、五年、五年的問題,未來五年實際上大約是 20 到 40 個小時,這實際上是一個容量問題,你會看到需求響應,你會看到人們對現有資產進行更多投資,這將解決每年 20 到 40 個小時的問題。

  • And then you're really talking about 2030, 2032 through '35 million being when I think CCGTs come in at new build costs that are being talked about above $2,000 of kW. And then the years 11 through 15 out there, that's when you start to see hopefully a big advocate. I think we're a big advocate of seeing nuclear come in. SMRs or the new generation of larger units come, but that's going to take time to get there. I know that the administration is pushing that, and I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing for the US in general.

    然後你實際上談論的是 2030 年、2032 年到 3500 萬美元,我認為那時 CCGT 的新建成本將超過每千瓦 2,000 美元。然後從 11 歲到 15 歲,你就有望開始看到一位大力倡導者。我認為我們非常提倡使用核能。SMR 或新一代大型裝置即將問世,但這需要時間。我知道政府正在推動這一點,我認為這是一件好事。我認為這對美國總體來說是一件好事。

  • But again, going back, we think we're advantaged by buying assets that are existing on the ground that we can continue to invest in. We think we're looking at redevelopment opportunities at our existing site and under the right contracts, we would contribute that. And then again, like I mentioned earlier, we're looking at operating the nuclear plant, and we're also looking at SMRs. That's part of our commitment with AWS. But those are years out. The upgrades nearer term that can help solve some of the supply. Let me leave it at that.

    但再回過頭來看,我們認為透過購買現有資產並繼續投資,我們會獲得優勢。我們認為我們正在尋找現有場地的再開發機會,並且根據正確的合同,我們將為此做出貢獻。然後,就像我之前提到的,我們正在研究運作核電廠,我們也在研究 SMR。這是我們對 AWS 承諾的一部分。但那已經是好幾年後的事了。近期的升級可以幫助解決部分供應問題。我就不多說了。

  • Terry, anything? No, okay.

    特里,有什麼事嗎?不,好吧。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • No, you have covered everything.

    不,你已經涵蓋了所有內容。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And maybe just a last quick one, if I could speak in. How do you think about valuing longer-term, sorry, how do you think about valuing longer-term capacity prices at this point with PJM asset acquisitions looking forward?

    這非常有幫助。如果我可以發言的話,我最後再簡單說一下。您如何看待長期估值,抱歉,在 PJM 資產收購前景看好的情況下,您如何看待目前長期容量價格的估值?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Look, I think that's a difficult one. I think that if you look at where things are today, obviously, with the most recent clear, and I think we were pretty clear that we put out guidance for next year, and we're going to give you an underpinning for 2027, 2028 in the outlook.

    瞧,我認為這是困難的。我認為,如果你看看今天的情況,顯然,根據最近的情況,我認為我們非常清楚地發布了明年的指導,我們將在展望中為 2027 年、2028 年提供依據。

  • And it won't underwrite these prices. Now that doesn't mean that's an underwriting case, not necessarily where the market will clear. I mean there's a difference between an equity or there's a difference between those two, and there's a difference between what the actual market outcomes are. But I think that we continue to think that the market is showing constructive signs here.

    而且它不會承保這些價格。這並不意味著這是一個承銷案例,也不一定是市場將會清算的案例。我的意思是,股票之間存在差異,或者這兩者之間存在差異,實際市場結果也存在差異。但我認為我們仍然認為市場正在顯示出建設性的跡象。

  • Chris, anything you want to add?

    克里斯,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Christopher Morice - Chief Commercial Officer

    Christopher Morice - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. No.

    是的。不。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, no? I agree. It's constructed.

    是,不是?我同意。它已建成。

  • Christopher Morice - Chief Commercial Officer

    Christopher Morice - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Well, the extrapolation, the supply-demand fundamentals will continue to see slight improvement, but you're extrapolating from this auction onto the next auction and looking forward. We're not projecting two to three auctions out.

    嗯,從外推來看,供需基本面將繼續略有改善,但你可以透過這次拍賣推斷下一次拍賣並展望未來。我們預計不會舉行兩到三次拍賣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • I was wondering, I guess, what's the nature of your discussions around contracting your gas plants at this point? It seems like contracting with the upstream producers has been a challenge in the past, curious where that stands, too.

    我想問的是,目前你們圍繞在承包天然氣工廠的討論內容是怎麼樣的?似乎與上游生產商簽訂合約在過去一直是一個挑戰,我很好奇現在的情況如何。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. what I always say, which is we're not going to talk about commercial terms and how we do things. But let me try to answer the question in some form, which is I think where we are headed and we've said this, we think that there's only so many long-term contracts that can be carbon-free.

    是的。我總是說,我們不會談論商業條款以及我們如何做事。但請讓我嘗試以某種形式回答這個問題,我認為我們的發展方向是這樣的,我們已經說過,我們認為只有這麼多的長期合約可以實現無碳排放。

  • Other contracts are going to have to be front of the meter PPA, virtual PPAs, and that means that they're effectively being sourced off of gas plants. And therefore, then you need to start managing risk of gas pace. We just added two plants in Freedom and Guernsey that are going to take, how many a day, 300,000, 400,000 a day Mcf.

    其他合約必須是電錶前端 PPA、虛擬 PPA,這意味著它們實際上是從天然氣廠購買的。因此,您需要開始管理天然氣速度風險。我們剛剛在自由地和根西島增加了兩家工廠,每天的產量將達到 30 萬或 40 萬立方英尺。

  • And so we actually think where things are headed is, if you're going to sell long-term contracts, you need to figure out how to hedge that or have a plan around hedging that. You can decide that you're just going to manage that risk with Chris and the desk or you can say, let's go originate things, and as we've said in the past, originate longer-term structure gas deals, we think that you're going to see longer-term structured offtake agreements.

    因此,我們實際上認為事情的發展方向是,如果你要出售長期合同,你需要弄清楚如何對沖它或製定對沖計劃。您可以決定只與克里斯和辦公桌一起管理該風險,或者您可以說,讓我們開始做一些事情,正如我們過去所說的那樣,發起長期結構化天然氣交易,我們認為您將看到長期結構化的承購協議。

  • And if the conversion is gas units, then the second leg of that is the gas supply. You're going to need to probably go out and match at least some volumetric level, try to match some of that up on longer-term supply. And what that means is structuring and origination, which is, as I've said, atrophy in these markets because structuring and origination went by the wayside when the markets went lower, there was no need to go secure supply, et cetera, restructuring originations effectively what we did with the AWS contract. That's effectively what we did.

    如果轉換的是天然氣單位,那麼第二部分就是天然氣供應。您可能需要出去並匹配至少一些體積水平,嘗試將其中一些與長期供應進行匹配。而這意味著結構化和發起,正如我所說的,這些市場萎縮,因為當市場走低時,結構化和發起就被拋在一邊,沒有必要去確保供應等等,有效地重組發起,就像我們對 AWS 合約所做的那樣。這實際上就是我們所做的。

  • It just happened to be a solid fuel, nuclear fuel. And we manage the risk around that appropriately. And the operation is there. But when you move to a gas unit, it's going to require a different skill set, and that's where we're headed. We're headed into structuring, origination and being able to have that skill set to appropriately manage and warehouse risk and, therefore, devise a premium on what we sell on long-term contracts.

    它恰好是一種固體燃料,核燃料。我們會適當地管理相關風險。操作就在那裡。但是當你轉到天然氣部門時,就需要一套不同的技能,這就是我們要努力的方向。我們正致力於建立和發起,並能夠擁有適當管理和倉儲風險的技能,從而為我們在長期合約中銷售的產品製定溢價。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Yes, got it. No, that's helpful color. That makes a lot of sense. It seems like that's the direction of the market is moving as well.

    是的,明白了。不,那是有用的顏色。這很有道理。看起來這也是市場發展的方向。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I just hope to get there first.

    我只是希望能先到達那裡。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Absolutely. I was wondering just your view on as you look at PJM and energy prices and forwards from here, what do you think the market needs to see for some of these load forecasts and a very strong demand ahead to actually be reflected in forwards from here.

    絕對地。我想知道您對 PJM 和能源價格以及未來前景的看法,您認為市場需要看到哪些負載預測以及未來非常強勁的需求才能真正反映在未來的前景中。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, David, I'll take that. And then we'll also get some color from Chris Morice, our Chief Commercial Officer, as well. As we mentioned earlier, right, we're seeing a steady increase in spark spreads. We saw that during the second quarter. Obviously, gas has had a good amount of volatility over the past several quarters, and that does impact how you see the spark spreads move.

    是的,大衛,我接受。然後我們也將從我們的首席商務官克里斯莫里斯 (Chris Morice) 那裡得到一些資訊。正如我們之前提到的,我們看到火花價差穩定成長。我們在第二季度看到了這一點。顯然,過去幾季天然氣價格波動很大,這確實會影響火花價差的走勢。

  • But fundamentally, when you look at supply and demand in the same manner that you're seeing in the capacity auction, that same sort of supply and demand factors over to the energy market. And so we see it being very constructive for the next several years. And I think the other thing, and maybe Chris can talk about this a little bit as well, from a liquidity standpoint, three years, four years out, it's just not an active market, right, from a power standpoint. The gas market has a really good depth of liquidity.

    但從根本上來說,當你以容量拍賣中看到的方式看待供需時,同樣的供需因素也會影響能源市場。因此,我們認為它在未來幾年將非常具有建設性。我認為另一件事,也許克里斯也可以談談這一點,從流動性的角度來看,三年、四年後,從權力的角度來看,這不是一個活躍的市場。天然氣市場的流動性確實非常好。

  • There's a lot of velocity with respect to volumes that trade in the gas market. But when you look at volumes in the power market that far out. It's not nearly as liquid as we see in the gas market. And so that's something else to make sure that everybody sort of keeps in mind.

    天然氣市場的交易量速度非常快。但當你觀察遠處電力市場的交易量。它的流動性遠不如我們在天然氣市場上看到的那樣。所以這是另一個需要確保每個人都牢記在心的事情。

  • Christopher Morice - Chief Commercial Officer

    Christopher Morice - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, it takes time. We see it in the power markets, they'll respond eventually. I think of note, we mentioned in previous quarters, but the forward power curves had been backwardated. And that was a bit puzzling to us given the supply-demand fundamentals and some of our views on tightening supply anyway.

    是的,這需要時間。我們在電力市場看到這一點,他們最終會做出反應。我認為值得注意的是,我們在前幾個季度提到過,但遠期功率曲線已經逆差。考慮到供需基本面以及我們對供應收緊的一些看法,這對我們來說有點令人費解。

  • So as of last week, two weeks ago, we saw the cal rolls moved to a more contango shape, again, reflective of the timing supply/demand fundamentals. So probably not fully where we think they need to be, but certainly trending the right way at this point.

    因此,截至上週,也就是兩週前,我們看到加州庫存量呈現正價差形態,這再次反映了時間供需基本面。因此,可能還沒有完全達到我們認為需要達到的水平,但目前來看,趨勢肯定是正確的。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • And David, Chris has been waiting to say Contango for quite some time. So look, I think it goes back to the near-term markets don't necessarily reflect fundamentals. There's a lot of recency bias. I mean Chris will be the first one to tell you this. There's a lot of recency bias of what just happened last week with respect to weather or in this case, where we sit today, what's going to happen next week because there's more heat coming to the East, Northeast and it will then push you typically get a couple-of-year-out type response.

    大衛,克里斯已經等待 Contango 訊息很長一段時間了。所以,我認為,這又回到了短期市場不一定會反映基本面的問題。存在著很大的近因偏差。我的意思是克里斯會第一個告訴你這一點。人們對上週發生的天氣事件存在很大的近期偏差,在這種情況下,我們今天所處的位置,以及下週將會發生什麼,因為東部、東北部將迎來更多的高溫,這將促使你通常會得到幾年後的反應。

  • So it's a little bit of that recency bias. But I think what we're seeing is a gradual move over time to where things are starting to align more to fundamentals. That said, if you go back to the conversation we just had about structuring and origination, which is everybody has been focused on sort of the short term and like how do I hedge next year or the year after, if you're on the energy procurement side of things, right, and people haven't thought about how to procure longer term, sands the hyperscalers and what we're doing working with them.

    所以有點像是近因偏差。但我認為,隨著時間的推移,我們看到的情況正逐漸向基本面靠攏。話雖如此,如果你回顧一下我們剛才關於結構和起源的討論,你會發現每個人都專注於短期問題,比如我如何對沖明年或後年,如果你在能源採購方面,對吧,而人們還沒有考慮如何進行長期採購,以及超大規模企業以及我們正在與他們合作做什麼。

  • But that's where we think that people are going to need to get more accustomed to thinking about what does pricing look like for power 5 years out. What does it look like seven years out? What does it look like 10 years out? And that's where we're focused.

    但我們認為,人們需要更習慣思考五年後的電力定價狀況。七年後會是什麼樣子?十年後會是什麼樣子?這就是我們關注的重點。

  • Chris is focused on making sure we manage risk in the near term, but also thinking about the longer term. That's what coal does and that's what Terry and I do. We all sit around and think about where things going. And to your point of, that's where things are going, structuring and origination. We think that's true. And we think that will then eventually start to converge with this near term where the visible markets are.

    克里斯專注於確保我們在短期內管理風險,同時也考慮長期風險。這就是煤炭的作用,也是特里和我所做的事情。我們坐在一起思考事情將如何發展。正如您所說,這就是事情的發展方向、結構和起源。我們認為這是真的。我們認為這最終將開始與近期可見的市場融合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Sullivan, Wolfe Research.

    麥可‧沙利文,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • I wanted to just ask post the auction results just given the higher print there, any impact that, that just has on your deleveraging plan and then where you see yourself in terms of leverage capacity post the case in the steel to do more M&A?

    我只是想問一下,拍賣結果公佈後,鑑於印刷量增加,這對您的去槓桿計劃有什麼影響嗎?然後,您認為自己在鋼鐵業的槓桿能力方面會如何發展,可以進行更多的併購?

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • So Michael, obviously, the capacity clear helps free cash flow helps the overall earnings. So that does give us more upfront. Obviously, we've got to close the Freedom and Guernsey acquisition to get that incremental. And as Mac alluded to earlier, we've pushed forward on both the HSR front and the FERC front to get those filings done.

    所以邁克爾,顯然,產能清理有助於自由現金流有助於整體獲利。因此這確實給了我們更多的預付款。顯然,我們必須完成對 Freedom 和 Guernsey 的收購才能獲得這一增量。正如 Mac 之前提到的,我們已經在 HSR 和 FERC 兩個方面推進,以完成這些備案。

  • I think it does give us a tailwind and something that we'll look to execute on as we close that out. and then get those units into the portfolio and allow the free cash flow to go to the bottom line and help us with the deleveraging plan. I mean obviously, as we deliver, I mean it's still max coin term of the flywheel.

    我認為它確實為我們帶來了順風,並且在我們結束交易時我們會考慮執行一些事情。然後將這些單位納入投資組合,讓自由現金流流向底線,並幫助我們實現去槓桿計畫。我的意思是,顯然,當我們交付時,它仍然是飛輪的最大硬幣期限。

  • As we add assets and then deliver and gain that capacity back, that is a strategy that we look at longer term. But first and foremost, we want to make sure that we execute and remain disciplined and then move forward with how we would think about M&A.

    隨著我們增加資產,然後交付並重新獲得產能,這是我們著眼於長期的策略。但首先,我們要確保執行並保持紀律,然後繼續推動我們對併購的看法。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Michael, maybe just to add to Terry's comments and we said this when we acquired the plants and then obviously, the auction cleared the next couple of days, with the clearing at the $330 million versus sort of what we had previously put out of 2026 for underwriting our outlook, which was the $270 million, that just gives us more cash flow, which means that deleveraging is easier.

    是的。邁克爾,也許只是為了補充特里的評論,我們在收購工廠時就說過這一點,然後顯然,拍賣在接下來的幾天內就清算了,清算金額為 3.3 億美元,而我們之前為承銷 2026 年的前景而支付的金額為 2.7 億美元,這只會給我們帶來更多的現金流,這意味著去槓桿更容易。

  • We're not even with this transaction when we put the debt, which is an all-debt transaction to finance this. When we put that on, it moves our leverage ratios up, but it doesn't take a significant amount. And given the free cash flows that come off of these units because it's highly accretive, along with the tax benefits, it makes it easier to get down to the 3.5 times net leverage next year. And that just reloads.

    當我們提出債務時,我們甚至還沒有進行這筆交易,這是一項全債務交易來為此提供資金。當我們實施這項措施時,我們的槓桿率會上升,但幅度不會很大。並且考慮到這些單位產生的自由現金流具有很高的增值性,再加上稅收優惠,明年的淨槓桿率更容易降至 3.5 倍。這只是重新加載。

  • We talked about the balance sheet being a strategic asset that just reloads the balance sheet being a strategic asset as well as being able to do our share repurchase program, all of that while maintaining our balance sheet discipline and net leverage of less than 3.5 times.

    我們討論了資產負債表是一種策略性資產,它只是重新加載了資產負債表,使其成為一種策略資產,並且能夠執行我們的股票回購計劃,同時保持我們的資產負債表紀律和低於 3.5 倍的淨槓桿率。

  • Michael Sullivan - Analyst

    Michael Sullivan - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Appreciate all the color there. And then back to some of the conversation around new builds, maybe more specifically for you all, and I know you just signed the RMR there at Brandon and Wagner in Maryland. But I think they have an RFP upcoming in the state, and there's been some talks there of ways to get new generation. I guess how are you thinking about that at a higher level with respect to future of those units and just new gen in that seat?

    好的。偉大的。欣賞那裡的所有色彩。然後回到有關新建築的一些討論,也許對你們所有人來說更具體地說,我知道你們剛剛在馬裡蘭州的布蘭登和瓦格納簽署了 RMR。但我認為他們即將在該州發布一份 RFP,並且已經就如何獲得新一代進行了一些討論。我想,您是如何從更高層次考慮這些單位的未來以及新一代的?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So our presence is obviously Brandon and Wagoner, as you mentioned, in being able to execute the RMR, we were shutting those units down happy to execute the RMR and provide great reliability and hopefully provide a lower cost alternative to the consumers in Baltimore and make sure the lights stay on, quite frankly. And if there was the ability to get gas to those units, we would obviously explore that. If those units are sort of on a not really on a peninsula, but they're on the river.

    是的。因此,我們的存在顯然是布蘭登和瓦格納,正如您所提到的,在能夠執行 RMR 時,我們關閉了那些單位,很高興執行 RMR 並提供高度的可靠性,並希望為巴爾的摩的消費者提供更低成本的替代方案,並確保燈保持亮著,坦率地說。如果有能力向這些單位輸送天然氣,我們顯然會探索這一點。如果這些單位實際上不在半島上,而是在河上。

  • And so you either going to come across the river underneath or you've got to come across a bridge that got hit or you got to come through the urban areas. That said, if BG&E can get us gas, we would look at potentially converting those boilers over like we did at Montour, like we've done at Bruner. And that could provide a solution that may be a lease cost alternative versus building $1 billion worth of transmission.

    因此,你要么穿過下面的河流,要么穿過一座被撞的橋,要么穿過市區。也就是說,如果 BG&E 可以為我們提供天然氣,我們會考慮改造這些鍋爐,就像我們在 Montour 和 Bruner 所做的那樣。這可能提供一種解決方案,即採用租賃成本替代方案,而不是建造價值 10 億美元的輸電線路。

  • But that's all dependent upon getting gas. And that's not the easiest thing to do because you've got to get a volume of gas there that is fairly significant relative to what the current infrastructure provides, but we're working through that and we'll see where that goes. As far as the RFP, we're not currently participating there.

    但這一切都取決於是否能得到汽油。這並不是一件容易的事情,因為你必須獲得大量的天然氣,相對於目前的基礎設施所能提供的量來說,這個數量是相當可觀的,但我們正在努力解決這個問題,看看會有什麼結果。就 RFP 而言,我們目前尚未參與。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (technical difficulty) Core ISI.

    (技術難度)核心ISI。

  • Un-identified Analyst

    Un-identified Analyst

  • Just wanted to touch upon a little bit and drill into Jeremy's question a little bit further. When we're thinking about the outer kind of auctions, I mean, what is the sense you guys get are hearing regarding kind of the continued implementation of the color. I mean it seems like the market would dictate higher prices, understanding that there's a lot of politics involved.

    只是想稍微談談並進一步深入探討一下傑里米的問題。當我們考慮外部拍賣時,我的意思是,你們聽到的關於顏色持續實施的感覺是什麼。我的意思是,這似乎像是市場決定更高的價格,但要知道這涉及很多政治因素。

  • Just would be interested when we start to think about 2028, 2029 and you guys formulating guidance for the Investor Day, like just how are you guys' kind of thinking about that?

    當我們開始考慮 2028 年、2029 年以及你們為投資者日制定指導時,我會很感興趣,例如你們對此有何看法?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • So first of all, we're in early innings with respect to what will happen past this next auction on the cap in the floor. I would tell you, and I don't know that there's a consensus that has been drawn across the IPP space nor would I tell you that there's been a consensus drawn. There's going to be several activities about how do we maintain affordability to use that term going forward.

    首先,我們對於下一次拍賣會後底線上限將會發生什麼還處於初期階段。我會告訴你,我不知道 IPP 領域是否已經達成共識,我也不會告訴你已經達成共識。我們將開展多項活動來探討如何保持這一術語在未來的可負擔性。

  • But that's just supposed how do you incentivize new generation at the right levels and incentivize keeping the existing generation around, right, and not bifurcate those markets. But is there an advantage to having a way to somewhat dampen over time and perhaps longer dated, for example, capacity markets that go out even multiple years like you might have in New England, et cetera, that's an opportunity, combined with a floor and a cap, it's appropriate that says that we're not going to go to the lows, and we're not going to go to the extreme highs.

    但這只是假設,你如何在適當的層面上激勵新一代,並激勵現有世代,對嗎,而不是分裂這些市場。但是,隨著時間的推移,或者說更長遠的時期,是否有辦法抑制產能市場,例如,像新英格蘭那樣持續多年的產能市場,等等,這是一個機會,結合底線和上限,適當的做法是,我們不會跌到谷底,也不會跌到極高。

  • But the definition of those two different things is where the rubber meets the road. And I don't know that there's been a full-on consensus about it. It's a great question, but I think that we just got past the most recent auction. We're going to get new parameters. When is it end of this month for the auction in December. And that's where sort of the market's focus has been.

    但這兩個不同事物的定義就是輪胎與道路接觸的地方。我不知道大家是否已經就此達成了全面共識。這是一個很好的問題,但我認為我們剛剛經歷了最近的拍賣。我們將獲得新的參數。12 月的拍賣會這個月什麼時候結束?這正是市場的焦點。

  • And then we need to have a longer-term discussion about how do you reform the market to make sure that you're sending the right price signals and create the right affordability for the retail consumer. There's just no answer to it at this point in time. It's in development.

    然後,我們需要進行長期討論,探討如何改革市場,以確保發出正確的價格訊號,並為零售消費者創造合適的承受能力。目前對此問題還沒有答案。它正在開發中。

  • Un-identified Analyst

    Un-identified Analyst

  • Fair. Yes. I should have prefaced my say. I know it's kind of an unfair question.

    公平的。是的。我應該先說清楚。我知道這個問題有點不公平。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • All questions are unfair.

    所有的問題都是不公平的。

  • Un-identified Analyst

    Un-identified Analyst

  • Just shifting gears a little bit. Just curious, too, on how you guys feel about kind of our nuclear fuel procurement, just knowing that we had kind of the culmination of the 10 times agreement in Russia and then we kind of go into a gap period later on in the decade, when we're thinking about it's a great.

    只要稍微改變一下節奏。我也只是好奇,你們對我們的核燃料採購有何看法,只知道我們在俄羅斯達成了十倍協議,然後我們在十年後進入了一個空白期,我們認為這是一件偉大的事情。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • It's a great question. We're going to provide a further update at our Investor Day on nuclear fuel. It's something that we are actively thinking about hedging. I think we showed that we had 100% of stuff through with outage. That was the most recent.

    這是一個很好的問題。我們將在投資者日提供有關核燃料的進一步更新。我們正在積極考慮對沖這一問題。我認為我們已經證明,在停電期間我們已經完成了 100% 的工作。這是最近的一次。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • We're substantially hedged up through 2029.

    到 2029 年,我們已經做好了充分的對沖準備。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • 2029. But you're right, we're looking at 2029 through the beginning of the next decade at this point. Longer the nuclear fuel, as I mentioned when we're talking about the AWS contract is a solid fuel that we manage. And it's an interesting thing because you're managing both price, but you're also managing physical supply. And so let us if I could, if I may, take a free pass on this one until September 9. We're going to provide an update on that at that juncture. But we are actively out there doing things.

    2029年。但您說得對,我們現在正在展望 2029 年,也就是下一個十年的開始。正如我在討論 AWS 合約時提到的那樣,核燃料不再是我們管理的固體燃料。這是一件有趣的事情,因為你不僅要管理價格,還要管理實體供應。因此,如果可以的話,請允許我將此事免費延長至 9 月 9 日。我們將在那時提供最新消息。但我們正積極地做一些事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rinny Singh, BofA Securities.

    美國銀行證券的 Rinny Singh。

  • Rinny Singh - Analyst

    Rinny Singh - Analyst

  • A question on how do you guys view data center clustering? It kind of looks like that's a big thing in Pennsylvania with the Homer City shipping port site. So I guess, specifically at the Susquehanna site and with the recent acquisition of Freedom, I guess, what are the conversations there? And is it kind of moving to more of those data center hub kind of structures?

    一個問題:你們如何看待資料中心集群?看起來,荷馬城航運港口選址在賓州是一件大事。所以我想,特別是在 Susquehanna 網站以及最近收購 Freedom 之後,那裡的對話是什麼樣的?它是否會轉向更多類似資料中心樞紐的結構?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • We didn't bring coal for nothing.

    我們不是無緣無故帶來煤炭的。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Look, we're bullish on the prospects of data centers in Pennsylvania, specifically the eastern half of Pennsylvania. Obviously, you guys, I'm sure, following PPLs, load forecasts and data centers in the queue at advanced stages and that keeps going up and up and I think a lot of that is the clustering not just by any one company, but I think as the infrastructure and gigawatt scale campuses like ours or the one adjacent to Susquehanna are built out, it just kind of brings more data centers.

    是的。看,我們對賓州資料中心的前景持樂觀態度,特別是賓州東部地區。顯然,我相信你們一直在關注 PPL、負載預測和隊列中的資料中心,而且這些都在不斷增加,我認為這在很大程度上是叢集,而不僅僅是任何一家公司,但我認為隨著基礎設施和千兆瓦規模的園區(如我們或毗鄰薩斯奎哈納的園區)的建成,它會帶來更多的資料中心。

  • And so you can go into the PJM planning submissions and see all the different clusters or sites being actively developed. And obviously, it's good for the eastern half of Pennsylvania and existing generation there. We like the acquisitions, specifically Freedom.

    因此,您可以進入 PJM 規劃提交並查看正在積極開發的所有不同叢集或網站。顯然,這對賓州東部地區和那裡的現有發電量有利。我們喜歡這些收購,特別是 Freedom。

  • That's right there next to Susquehanna and obviously, Guernsey out in Ohio, where there's already a large data center clustering presence. And so I think that's bullish for our entire portfolio as we both just for the power in general, but also our ability to contract that over time.

    它就在薩斯奎哈納 (Susquehanna) 旁邊,顯然還有俄亥俄州的根西島 (Guernsey),那裡已經有一個大型資料中心集群。因此,我認為這對我們的整個投資組合來說是利好消息,因為我們不僅擁有整體實力,而且還擁有隨著時間推移收縮實力的能力。

  • Rinny Singh - Analyst

    Rinny Singh - Analyst

  • Yes, that makes sense. And then I guess, just secondly, understanding that you've moved ahead with AWS front of the meter, can you give any insight to the ISA rehearing? I know it's ongoing. So I guess, any thoughts on implications of ruling there for future contracts as well?

    是的,這很有道理。其次,我想,您已經推進了 AWS 的進程,您能否對 ISA 的重新審理提供一些見解?我知道它仍在進行中。所以我想,對於該裁決對未來合約的影響,您有什麼看法嗎?

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Look, with respect to the ISA, I'd say the most relevant thing is we recently briefed the appeal in the Fifth Circuit on the ISA, is the next step that we see that says, You need to tell us why the ISA didn't work and why behind the meter doesn't work. Commercially, we're focused on the front of the meter, okay, in the near term.

    是的。關於 ISA,我想說最相關的事情是我們最近向第五巡迴法院簡要介紹了 ISA 的上訴情況,我們看到的下一步是,你需要告訴我們為什麼 ISA 不起作用以及為什麼電錶後面不起作用。從商業角度來看,短期內我們主要關注電錶前端。

  • But long term, okay, when you hear of things like shipping port, when you hear of Homer City, when you hear of JVs going after building generation with it, those are essentially for all practical purposes behind the meter yet grid-connected discussion, we've always said that was where things were going to go and that you should have to pay your fair share, whatever the definition of that, and everybody has got their own definition of that.

    但是從長遠來看,好吧,當你聽到像航運港口這樣的東西時,當你聽到荷馬城時,當你聽到合資企業用它來建設發電廠時,這些基本上都是出於電錶背後實際目的而進行的電網連接討論,我們總是說這就是事情的發展方向,你應該支付你應付的份額,不管它的定義是什麼,每個人都有定義自己的定義。

  • But like you should pay for what you use, let's put it that way, not fair share. You should pay for what you use. And we've always said that, that was the case. It's just in our case, which was fully behind the meter, not grid connected. There was no cost. PJM said that PPL said that, that was in the ISA.

    但是,就像您應該為您使用的東西付費一樣,讓我們這樣說吧,這不是公平份額。您應該按您使用的內容付費。我們一直都這麼說,事實也確實如此。就我們的情況而言,它完全位於電錶後面,而不是電網連接。沒有任何費用。PJM 說 PPL 說過,那是在 ISA 中。

  • And so we're looking for justification on that. We'll continue to do so because we think longer term that everything should be on the table, okay? Front of the meter, behind the meter that's grid connected, possibly even just behind the meter, okay?

    因此,我們正在尋找理由。我們會繼續這樣做,因為我們認為從長遠來看,所有事情都應該擺在桌面上,好嗎?電錶前面、與電網連接的電錶後面,甚至可能就在電表後面,好嗎?

  • And those are types of solutions that are being talked about, and that's getting lost. And I think FERC along with PJM. And PJM did this with their different options that they put forth to FERC said that everything is available. They did rank them in their preference, if you will, as to what they prefer versus lease preferred, fine, okay?

    這些都是人們正在討論的解決方案,但卻被忽略了。我認為 FERC 與 PJM 是一致的。PJM 向 FERC 提出了不同的選擇,並表示一切準備就緒。如果你願意的話,他們會根據自己的喜好對它們進行排名,至於他們喜歡什麼與租賃偏好什麼,很好,好嗎?

  • But FERC needs to move forward with an all-of-the-above solution that allows the proliferation of data centers, doesn't disadvantage RTOs that are restructured like PJM and allows for continued investment in data centers and supply growth at the same time. And so we continue to push forward on the behind-the-meter from a legal and regulatory process standpoint, but we're focused on front of the meter with respect to commercial terms.

    但 FERC 需要推進上述所有解決方案,以允許資料中心的擴散,不會對 PJM 等重組的 RTO 造成不利影響,並允許繼續對資料中心進行投資並同時實現供應成長。因此,我們將繼續從法律和監管流程的角度推動電錶後方的發展,但就商業條款而言,我們主要關注電錶前端的發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gregg Orrill, UBS Investment Bank.

    瑞銀投資銀行的格雷格·奧裡爾。

  • Gregg Orrill - Analyst

    Gregg Orrill - Analyst

  • I know the disclosure wasn't new on SMRs, but just the strategy there and where you're thinking about implementing that.

    我知道關於 SMR 的披露並不是什麼新鮮事,但這只是那裡的策略以及您正在考慮實施的地方。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Cole can jump in, is helping work on this. Look, we have an agreement to explore SMRs across our sites, not just Susquehanna. We have additional sites. We have additional land in Pennsylvania, but to explore Ms. Personally, I'm an advocate of nuclear in some form or fashion. It's 20% of the overall grid or 18% of the overall grid and it needs to be more than that as I think that's good for US policy, okay?

    當然。科爾可以加入進來,幫忙完成這項工作。你看,我們已經達成協議,將在我們所有的場址上探索 SMR,而不僅僅是 Susquehanna。我們還有其他站點。我們在賓夕法尼亞州有額外的土地,但要探索女士。就我個人而言,我主張以某種形式或方式使用核能。這是整個電網的 20% 或 18%,而且需要更多,因為我認為這對美國政策有好處,好嗎?

  • And we agreed with Amazon to explore SMRs, which we'll do. Again, I said this is years 10 through 15 is sort of when things sort of look on the horizon for nuclear, new nuclear, putting aside restarting some of the plants, which I applaud that Constellation is doing a Crane Clean Energy Center. It's great. And other locations that are being restarted. But we are spending, what I would call, early stage.

    我們與亞馬遜達成協議,共同探索 SMR,我們將會這樣做。我再說一遍,從現在到第 15 年,核能和新核能的發展前景將有所改善,暫時不考慮重啟一些核電站,我讚賞 Constellation 正在建造的 Crane 清潔能源中心。這很棒。以及其他正在重啟的地點。但我們正在花費我所說的早期階段的時間。

  • We're looking to spend. We haven't even started early-stage development dollars and thinking about how do we work with the state our counterparty, what opportunities exist to look at these types of things. But it's early stage to get the concept going and thinking about how might we implement it and how might we work with the current technologies.

    我們正在考慮花錢。我們甚至還沒有開始投入早期開發資金,也沒有考慮如何與對手方國家合作,以及有哪些機會來研究這些類型的事情。但現在還處於早期階段,我們正在思考如何實現它以及如何利用目前的技術。

  • So I mean there's a whole licensing aspect that needs to go on. I think there's only one approved license right now on SMRs. And so there's an evolution that needs to occur here before the nuclear revolution occurs. So we're working on it early stages.

    所以我的意思是需要進行整個許可方面的事情。我認為目前 SMR 只有一個獲得批准的許可證。因此,在核革命發生之前,這裡需要發生一場變革。所以我們目前正處於早期階段。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I would say if folks thought gas deals were complex, the SMR deal or SMR-backed deal is going to be very complicated, right? As Mac said, there's regulatory issues that work through. So I would just set expectations that we're very early innings and that is a very long-term view or developments that we're planning seeds today, but I wouldn't expect that to be the near-term focus of announcements.

    是的。我想說,如果人們認為天然氣交易很複雜,那麼 SMR 交易或 SMR 支援的交易也會非常複雜,對嗎?正如麥克所說,存在一些需要解決的監管問題。因此,我只是設定了期望,我們處於非常早期的階段,這是一個非常長期的觀點或發展,我們今天正在計劃種子,但我不會期望這是近期公告的重點。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Right. And I do think though that there is the ability to start exploring this stuff because you see the President, you see Secretary right, pushing forward either EOs or DOE advancement of how to get new nuclear coming to the grid. And so we're excited about working on it. We're not necessarily allocating a bunch of dollars to it, and it's early stage development at this point.

    正確的。我確實認為我們有能力開始探索這些事情,因為你看到總統,你看到部長,正在推動 EO 或 DOE 推進如何讓新的核電進入電網。因此我們對此工作感到非常興奮。我們不一定會為它投入大量資金,而且目前它還處於早期開發階段。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Zimbardo, Jefferies.

    保羅‧津巴多 (Paul Zimbardo),傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

  • Paul Zimbardo - Analyst

    Paul Zimbardo - Analyst

  • Sorry to disappoint, it's Paul. I know a lot was asked in here. Just to squeeze in the last one and follow up on I believe Michael's question, on the leverage profile, so obviously, with the 330-megawatt day clear versus the 270, should we think about the 3.5 times net debt to EBITDA target you're comfortable levering up to that level on the higher capacity clear kind of factor way of asking like your view on sustainability of the higher capacity prices.

    很抱歉令你失望了,我是保羅。我知道這裡有很多問題。只是為了擠出最後一個問題並跟進我相信邁克爾的問題,關於槓桿率概況,所以顯然,330 兆瓦的日產量與 270 兆瓦的產量相比,我們是否應該考慮 3.5 倍的淨債務與 EBITDA 目標,您是否願意在更高容量的明確因素上將槓桿率提高到這個水平,例如詢問您對更高容量可持續性的看法。

  • Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

    Terry Nutt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Michael, our 3.5 times target, which is a target that we've had now for a couple of years, we're comfortable with that. I think it cuts at the right level with respect to maintaining the ability to do things on either side. So we're fine with that. The 270 versus 330 is, as we mentioned earlier, obviously helpful as we move forward. But we did this last year when we did our Investor Day, right, we're not going to underwrite these high prints for years and years and years in the long-term projection.

    是的,邁克爾,我們的 3.5 倍目標是我們幾年來一直堅持的目標,我們對此感到滿意。我認為它在保持雙方做事能力方面處於適當的水平。所以我們對此沒有意見。正如我們之前提到的,270 與 330 的對比顯然對我們前進很有幫助。但是我們去年在投資人日上就說過,從長期預測來看,我們不會連續數年承保這些高印額。

  • So we've got to keep that balance and keep that discipline as we think about the balance sheet and combined with strategic activity and combined with everything that we manage from a liquidity and a hedging standpoint.

    因此,我們在考慮資產負債表時必須保持這種平衡並保持這種紀律,並結合策略活動以及從流動性和對沖的角度管理的一切。

  • Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark McFarland - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I'd also tell you, Paul, that we you back home that we're going to lay some of this out in September 9 on 2026 guidance, 2027 outlook and 2028 sort of early preview outlook. And we have a growing cash flow profile. So with the, I'll call it, more modest or conservative, however, we want to deem it, underwriting case associated with capacity clears.

    保羅,我還要告訴你,我們將在 9 月 9 日就 2026 年指引、2027 年展望和 2028 年早期預覽展望中闡述這些內容。我們的現金流狀況也不斷增加。因此,我稱之為更溫和或保守的,但是,我們希望認為與容量相關的承保案例已經清除。

  • And that growing cash flow profile still meets, as we said, being able to toggle these things allows us to return after we hit our leverage down targeting the end of next year to less than net 3.5 times, then allows us to return to 70% of cash being returned to shareholders and maintaining that capital discipline and with a growing cash flow profile not necessarily underwritten by the CAP clears, we're in good shape there.

    而且,正如我們所說,不斷增長的現金流狀況仍然能夠滿足要求,能夠切換這些條件使我們能夠在達到槓桿率目標(明年年底降至淨 3.5 倍以下)後返回,然後使我們能夠將 70% 的現金返還給股東並保持資本紀律,並且隨著現金流狀況不斷增長(不一定由 CAP 清算承保),我們的情況承保良好。

  • Appreciate everybody. I know everyone is going to be running off to additional calls. Appreciate everybody's interest in Talen, and we look forward to seeing you at some of our future events. Have a great day. Thank you.

    感謝大家。我知道每個人都會去接聽其他電話。感謝大家對 Talen 的關注,我們期待在未來的活動中見到您。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。