Teekay Corp Ltd (TK) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by we're about to begin. welcome to the Teekay Corp fourth quarter 2024 earnings results conference call [Operator Instructions] now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the company. Please go ahead.

請稍候，我們即將開始。歡迎參加 Teekay Corp 2024 年第四季收益業績電話會議 [操作員指示] 現在是開場白和介紹的時候了，我想將電話轉給公司。請繼續。

Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.tk.com, where you'll find a copy of the TK Group's fourth quarter and annual 2024 earnings presentation. Kenneth will review this presentation during today's conference call.

在我們開始之前，我想引導所有參與者造訪我們的網站 www.tk.com，您可以在那裡找到 TK 集團 2024 年第四季和年度收益報告的副本。Kenneth 將在今天的電話會議中回顧這場演講。

Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward-looking statements. additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the TK Corporation and TK Tanker's fourth quarter and annual 2024 earnings releases and the TK Group earnings presentation available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Kenneth Vid, TK Corporations, and TK Tankers, President and CEO to begin.

請容許我提醒您，我們今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述預測的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參閱我們網站上的 TK Corporation 和 TK Tanker 第四季度和 2024 年年度收益報告以及 TK Group 收益報告。現在，我將電話轉給 TK Corporations 和 TK Tankers 總裁兼執行長 Kenneth Vid。

Thank you, Ed. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today for the CK Group's fourth quarter and annual 2024 earnings conference call. joining me on the call today for the Q&A session is Brody Spears, TK Corporations, and TK Tanga CFO, Ryan Hamilton, our VP Finance and Corporate Development, and Christian Waldegrave, our director of research.

謝謝你，埃德。大家好，非常感謝您今天參加長江集團2024年第四季和年度財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議問答環節的還有 TK Corporations 和 TK Tanga 財務長 Brody Spears、我們的財務和企業發展副總裁 Ryan Hamilton 以及我們的研究主管 Christian Waldegrave。

Starting on slide 3 of the presentation, we will cover TK Tango's recent highlights. TK Tanger's reported adjusted net income of $52 million or $1.50 per share in the fourth quarter, and for the full year 2024, adjusted net income of $355 million or $10.31 per share.

從簡報的第 3 張投影片開始，我們將介紹 TK Tango 最近的亮點。TK Tanger 報告稱，第四季度調整後淨收入為 5,200 萬美元，即每股 1.50 美元，2024 年全年調整後淨收入為 3.55 億美元，即每股 10.31 美元。

Despite softer than expected spot rates towards the end of the year, the company still generated $69 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $415 million for the year. in the last few weeks as part of our opportunistic approach to ongoing fleet management, we sold 2 2009 built Suez maxis and 1 2006 built ER2 for a combined $96 million.

儘管年底現貨價格低於預期，但該公司第四季仍產生了 6,900 萬美元的自由現金流，全年產生了 4.15 億美元的自由現金流。在過去幾週，作為我們持續進行船隊管理的機會性方法的一部分，我們出售了 2 艘 2009 年建造的蘇伊士型大型船舶和 1 艘 2006 年建造的 ER2，總價值為 9600 萬美元。

Two of these vessels have already been delivered to their buyers, while the third is expected to be delivered by mid March upon completion of its current voyage.

其中兩艘船已經交付給買家，第三艘船預計將在完成當前航程後於 3 月中旬交付。

Including the previously announced two vessels we sold during Q4, we've sold a total of 2005 to 2009 built vessels for combined proceeds of $160 million resulting in expected book gains on sale of nearly $60 million. further, I'm pleased to report that just today we lifted subjects and signed an MOA to acquire a modern LR2 tanker, which we expect to close in the second quarter.

包括先前宣布的第四季出售的兩艘船舶在內，我們總共出售了 2005 年至 2009 年建造的船舶，總收益為 1.6 億美元，預計銷售帳面收益將接近 6000 萬美元。此外，我很高興地報告，就在今天，我們解除了相關事項並簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，以收購一艘現代 LR2 油輪，我們預計該交易將在第二季度完成。

These sales and purchase are part of our ongoing fleet management and fleet renewal plan where we naturally sell all the vessels and acquire more Martin on it over time when the opportunity is right.

這些銷售和購買是我們正在進行的船隊管理和船隊更新計劃的一部分，在該計劃中，我們會自然而然地出售所有船隻，並在合適的機會下隨著時間的推移收購更多的馬丁船隻。

In addition, we have now completed TNK's acquisition of the TK Australia business and the transfer of all the remaining management services companies not previously owned by TNK. These transactions transformed TK Tankers into a fully integrated shipping company and the sole operating platform within the TK Group.

此外，我們目前已完成 TNK 對 TK 澳洲業務的收購以及 TNK 之前未擁有的所有剩餘管理服務公司的轉讓。這些交易使TK Tankers轉變為一家完全一體化的航運公司，並成為TK集團內的唯一營運平台。

We also made a passive investment in Armore Shipping Corporation, where we now own 5.1% of the company. Historically, TK has had investments in adjacent sectors to our medium sized crude tanker business, including some exposure to the MR sector in the past. We believe that this investment represents good value in the product sector.

我們也對 Armore Shipping Corporation 進行了被動投資，現在我們擁有該公司 5.1% 的股份。從歷史上看，TK 一直在與我們的中型原油油輪業務相關的領域進行投資，包括過去在 MR 領域的一些投資。我們相信這項投資在產品領域具有良好的價值。

Looking at our first quarter to date spot rates, our rates to date are slightly below our fourth quarter levels but remain volatile and trending upwards based on the latest Clarkson's report spot rates. Although these rates are down from historical highs from 2023 and 2024, current rates are well above our fleet's free cash flow break even levels, meaning tankers continues to generate substantial free cash flow and earnings in the current market environment. We will discuss the drivers of the market in subsequent flights.

縱觀我們第一季迄今為止的現貨價格，我們迄今為止的現貨價格略低於第四季度的水平，但根據克拉克森最新的現貨價格報告，價格仍然波動且呈上升趨勢。儘管這些費率低於 2023 年和 2024 年的歷史高點，但當前費率遠高於我們船隊的自由現金流盈虧平衡水平，這意味著油輪在當前市場環境下繼續產生大量自由現金流和收益。我們將在後續的飛行中討論市場的驅動因素。

Lastly, TK Tango's declared its quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share, payable in March, and for the full year, we have paid $3 per share in dividends.

最後，TK Tango 宣布其季度固定股息為每股 0.25 美元，將於 3 月支付，全年我們已支付每股 3 美元的股息。

Moving to slide 4, we look at recent developments in the spot market.

接下來是第 4 張投影片，我們來看看現貨市場的最新發展。

Weak Chinese oil demand during the latter part of the year weighed on the VOCC market, which in turn had a dampening effect on Suzak and Aromax stock rates, while seasonal weather delays failed to give any uplift to the tanga market during the winter months. Rates were still above long-term average levels and well above TNK's free cash flow break even of approximately $14,300 per day.

今年下半年中國石油需求疲軟，給 VOCC 市場帶來壓力，進而抑制了 Suzak 和 Aromax 的庫存價格，而季節性天氣延誤未能在冬季給坦噶市場帶來任何提振。費率仍然高於長期平均水平，並遠高於 TNK 的自由現金流盈虧平衡點（約 14,300 美元/天）。

Average Q1 to date spot tanker rates are slightly below fourth quarter levels but have been trending upwards in recent weeks. The imposition of additional US sanctions on 153 tankers servicing the Russian oil trade has increased rate volatility, particularly in the larger crude tanker asset classes, as replacement shipping capacity was booked for transporting oil to China and India.

第一季迄今的現貨油輪平均運價略低於第四季的水平，但近幾週呈上升趨勢。美國對 153 艘為俄羅斯石油貿易提供服務的油輪實施額外制裁，加劇了運費波動，尤其是在大型原油油輪資產類別中，因為替代運輸能力已被預訂用於將石油運輸到中國和印度。

In addition, Atlantic-based crude oil has been attractively priced when compared to Middle Eastern crude in recent weeks, which has opened the albatross for the long haul movement of oil from the Atlantic basin to Asia. This has been positive for 1 mile demand in the near term, particularly for the LCC and Suezmax tankers.

此外，最近幾週與中東原油相比，大西洋原油的價格更具吸引力，這為從大西洋盆地到亞洲的長途石油運輸打開了障礙。這對短期內的 1 英里需求產生了積極影響，尤其是對於 LCC 和蘇伊士型油輪而言。

Turning to slide 5, we look at some of the geopolitical events that are currently unfolding, which seems to change day by day, and there are likely more questions and answers on how things will progress over the course of this year. as highlighted by the slide, there are an unusually large number of factors this year which could influence the direction of the tanger market.

翻到第 5 張投影片，我們來看看目前正在發生的一些地緣政治事件，這些事件似乎每天都在發生變化，而且關於今年事態將如何發展，可能會有更多關於問題和答案。正如幻燈片所強調的，今年有異常多的因素可能影響橘子市場的走向。

I won't go into every single point in detail, but it's worth highlighting three of the key factors which we believe could impact the tanker bar, depending on how they unfold in the coming weeks and months.

我不會詳細討論每一個要點，但值得強調的是我們認為可能影響油輪價格的三個關鍵因素，這取決於未來幾週和幾個月的發展。

Firstly, the red highlights the current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Starting with the war in Ukraine, the situation has become extremely dynamic in recent weeks. While we do not know how events will unfold, will continue to unfold in the future, we do know that there could be wide ranging consequences for both tankers on mild demand and the future of the shadow fleet of ships that are currently servicing Russian oil exports should a peace agreement be reached.

首先，紅色突顯了烏克蘭和中東地區當前的衝突。從烏克蘭戰爭開始，局勢在最近幾週變得極為動態。雖然我們不知道事態將如何發展，也不知道未來會如何發展，但我們知道，一旦達成和平協議，這可能會對需求溫和的油輪以及目前為俄羅斯石油出口提供服務的影子船隊的未來產生廣泛影響。

In the meantime, we can envision scenarios whereby sanctions against Russia are either tightened or loosened depending on how discussions between the various parties develop. for example, we understand that the EU is planning a new round of sanctions next week which will include another 73 ships being added to the sanctions list.

同時，我們可以設想，根據各方談判的進展，對俄羅斯的製裁可能會收緊或放鬆。例如，我們了解到歐盟計畫下週實施新一輪制裁，將另外73艘船隻列入製裁名單。

These sanctions could further impact Russia's ability to export oil, as evidenced by the last round of sanctions in January, where logistical constraints meant that India and China had to source replacement barrels from the Middle East and Atlantic basin on non-sanctioned vessels to make up for the shortfall in Russian supply.

這些制裁可能會進一步影響俄羅斯的石油出口能力，今年 1 月的最新一輪制裁證明了這一點，由於物流限制，印度和中國必須使用未受制裁的船隻從中東和大西洋盆地採購替代石油，以彌補俄羅斯供應的短缺。

In the Middle East, the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has led to the Houthi group in Yemen pledging to stop attacks on shipping. this may eventually result in the resumption of tanker transit through the Red Sea region, which, depending on how things unfold, could impact seaborne trade patterns and reduce tanker to mile demand. However, the situation is fragile, and for the time being, we expect that owners like TK and cargo Inter will continue to stay away from the region until there's more certainty around the safety of crews, vessels, and cargos.

在中東，以色列和哈馬斯之間最近達成的停火協議使得也門胡塞武裝承諾停止對航運的攻擊。這最終可能導致油輪透過紅海地區過境的恢復，而根據事態發展，這可能會影響海運貿易模式並減少油輪對英里的需求。然而，情況依然脆弱，就目前而言，我們預計，像 TK 和 Inter 這樣的船東將繼續遠離該地區，直到船員、船隻和貨物的安全更加確定為止。

Secondly, the yellow highlights the impact of sanctions on crude oil exports from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, as well as the fleet of ships servicing them. I've already touched on the situation with regards to Russia. But another key development this year is the return of the United States' maximum pressure campaign on Iran in a bid to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero.

其次，黃色突出顯示了製裁對俄羅斯、伊朗和委內瑞拉原油出口以及為其提供服務的船隊的影響。我已經談到了有關俄羅斯的情況。但今年的另一個關鍵進展是美國再次對伊朗採取極限施壓，試圖將伊朗石油出口降至零。

In 2024, Iranian crude oil exports averaged 1.5 million barrels per day, the majority of which went to China. tougher sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports could therefore lead China to import oil from other sources via the compliant fleet, which would be positive for tanker demand.

2024年，伊朗原油出口量平均為每天150萬桶，其中大部分銷往中國。因此，對伊朗原油出口實施更嚴厲的製裁，可能導致中國透過合規船隊從其他來源進口石油，這將對油輪需求產生正面影響。

Finally, the blue highlights the potential impact of tariffs on oil trade flows. In early February, the US announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada with a lower 10% tariff on Canadian energy, though the implementation of these tariffs was suspended for 30 days. These tariffs come into force, we could see Canada and Mexico looking to divert some of their crude exports away from the US to other regions such as Europe and Asia, while the US refiners may have to find replacement barrels from further afield, both of which would be positive for tanker on mile command.

最後，藍色突顯了關稅對石油貿易流動的潛在影響。2月初，美國宣布對來自墨西哥和加拿大的進口產品徵收25%的關稅，對加拿大能源產品徵收10%的較低關稅，但這些關稅暫停實施30天。在這些關稅生效後，我們可能會看到加拿大和墨西哥尋求將部分原油出口從美國轉移到歐洲和亞洲等其他地區，而美國煉油商可能不得不從更遠的地方尋找替代原油，這兩者都將對按英里指令行駛的油輪產生積極影響。

Regarding Canadian exports, we know that there are plans to commence nighttime loading from the Trans Mountain pipeline terminal in Vancouver later this year, which would allow the terminal to reach 28 to 30 Aromax cargo per month compared to '22 to '24 at present.

關於加拿大的出口，我們知道，今年稍後計劃從溫哥華的 Trans Mountain 輸油管終端開始夜間裝貨，這將使該終端每月的 Aromax 貨物吞吐量達到 28 至 30 批，而目前的水平是 2022 至 2024 年。

It is difficult to predict 2025 impacts, but due to political uncertainty and changes to seaborne oil trade patterns usually increase tanker market volatility and supply chain inefficiencies.

很難預測 2025 年的影響，但由於政治不確定性和海運石油貿易模式的變化，通常會增加油輪市場的波動性和供應鏈效率低。

Turning to slide 6, we look at the underlying tang of demand and supply factors which we believe continue to support a balanced market, notwithstanding the geopolitical events that are just touched on. starting with tanker demand drivers, global oil consumption is projected to grow by $1.3 million barrels per day in 2025. Virtually all of this demand growth is being driven by non-OC.

轉到投影片 6，我們來看看需求和供應因素的潛在影響，我們認為，儘管剛剛提到了地緣政治事件，但這些因素仍將繼續支撐平衡的市場。從油輪需求驅動因素開始，預計到 2025 年全球石油消費量將成長 130 萬桶/日。幾乎所有這些需求成長都是由非 OC 推動的。

OECD countries led by Asia global oil supply is also set to grow with production from non-OPEC plus countries set to increase by $1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, and Guyana.

以亞洲為首的 OECD 國家的全球石油供應量也將成長，到 2025 年，非 OPEC 國家及地區的石油產量將增加 150 萬桶/日，其中以美國、巴西、挪威、加拿大和圭亞那為首。

Given that these sources of oil are mostly in the Atlantic basin, while oil demand growth is focused on Asia, we expect an increase in long haul crude oil movements from west to east, which should boost tanker to mile demand. The OPEC plus group could also provide additional seaborne transportation volumes should they start unwinding their voluntary oil supply costs from April 2025 onwards, consistent with the most recently announced plan.

鑑於這些石油來源主要位於大西洋盆地，而石油需求成長集中在亞洲，我們預計從西向東的長途原油運輸將會增加，這將推動油輪對英里的需求。如果 OPEC 加產油國從 2025 年 4 月起開始取消自願石油供應成本，那麼它們還可以提供額外的海運運輸量，這與最近宣布的計劃一致。

Turning to fleet supply, mid-sized tanger fleet growth is expected to remain relatively low in the medium term. As shown by the chart on the bottom right of the slide, the current size of the tango order book is relatively similar to the fleet of older tankers turning 20 during the same time period, with 307 mid-sized tankers currently on order for delivery through 2028 compared with 312 existing.

談到船隊供應，預計中期內中型貨櫃船隊成長將保持相對較低。如幻燈片右下方的圖表所示，目前 Tango 訂單量規模與同一時期年滿 20 艘的老式油輪船隊規模相對相似，目前訂購的中型油輪數量為 307 艘，將於 2028 年交付，而現有的數量為 312 艘。

Mid-sized tankers that will turn 20 over the same time frame. In addition, there are 301 mid-sized tankers which are already over the age of 20, the majority of which operate as part of the shadow fleet servicing sanctioned trains. And which are facing increased scrutiny from US and European authorities. In some, assuming no scrapping, we could have over 600 mid-sized tankers or approximately 30% of the fleet over the age of 20 years old in 3 years' time, which is unprecedented. And for comparison, at the end of 2021, there were around 1,150 mid-sized tankers over the age of 20. this illustrates the scale of the excess fleet supply that could be phased out should trade normalize.

中型油輪也將在同一時間內迎來 20 週年。此外，還有 301 輛中型油罐車，車齡已超過 20 年，其中大多數作為影子車隊的一部分，為受批准的列車提供服務。並面臨美國和歐洲當局更嚴格的審查。在某些情況下，假設沒有報廢，我們可能在3年內擁有超過600艘中型油輪，或約30％的船隊年齡超過20年，這是前所未有的。相比之下，截至 2021 年底，船齡超過 20 年的中型油輪約有 1,150 艘。

While it is difficult to predict what will ultimately happen with the shadow fleet, and it is uncertain when we may see an uptake in vessel recycling, we believe that with a manageable order book, a lack of available shipyard capacity until 2028, and a tanker fleet, which is currently the oldest in well over 20 years, tanker fleet growth will remain at low levels over the next 3 years.

雖然很難預測影子船隊最終會發生什麼，而且我們不確定何時會看到船舶回收的增加，但我們相信，由於訂單可控、2028 年之前船廠可用產能不足，以及油輪船隊目前是 20 多年來最老的，油輪船隊的增長將在未來 3 年內保持在較低水平。

In some, while there are a wide range of potential outcomes from the various current issues impacting global trade, security, and energy, we remain encouraged by the underlying tanger supply and demand fundamentals which we believe point towards a balanced tanger market over the medium term. turning to slide 7, we highlight how TK Tankers is well positioned for any market conditions.

在某些情況下，雖然影響全球貿易、安全和能源的各種當前問題可能產生各種各樣的結果，但我們仍然對潛在的橘子供需基本面感到鼓舞，我們相信這將導致中期橘子市場平衡。轉到第 7 張投影片，我們重點介紹 TK Tankers 如何在任何市場條件下佔據有利地位。

With our high operating leverage and a low free cash flow break even of $14,300 per day, we can generate significant cash flow in almost any market conditions. To emphasize, every $5000 an increase in spot rates above our break even produces $2.15 per share of annual free cash flow, or over 5% on a free cash flow yield basis.

憑藉我們的高經營槓桿和每天 14,300 美元的低自由現金流盈虧平衡，我們幾乎可以在任何市場條件下產生大量現金流。需要強調的是，現貨價格每超過損益平衡點 5,000 美元，就會產生每股 2.15 美元的年度自由現金流，或以自由現金流收益率計算超過 5%。

Combined with our strong balance sheet, we've built optionality and capacity to maximize shareholder value in any market outcome. With that operator, we're now available to take steps.

結合我們強大的資產負債表，我們建立了選擇性和能力，以在任何市場結果下實現股東價值最大化。有了這個操作符，我們現在就可以採取措施了。

Thank you [Operator Instructions] We'll move to our first question from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

謝謝[操作員指示]我們將轉到來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell 的第一個問題。

Thank you. Good morning, Kenneth, you touched on it briefly, in your introduction, but if you could just, provide a little bit more insight on the Ardmore investment. Just seems a little curious, given, it's a part of the tanker sector that TK hasn't really been involved in much in the past. I get it's cheap, so it's TNK, and, it's also just like a lot less liquid than TNK as an investment's concern. So maybe explain the thought process behind that and also, how you looked at that investment vis a vis buying back your own shares.

謝謝。早安，肯尼斯，您在介紹中簡要提到了這一點，但如果您能就阿德莫爾投資提供更多見解的話。這似乎有點好奇，因為這是油輪領域的一部分，而 TK 過去並沒有真正涉足過這一領域。我知道它很便宜，所以它是 TNK，而且，從投資角度來看，它的流動性也比 TNK 差很多。所以也許可以解釋一下這背後的想法，以及你如何看待這項投資與回購自己的股票之間的關係。

Yeah, thanks, John. Good morning. I'm expecting that question. I just want to emphasize that, our number one priority is obviously our core fleet and our core business at at TK with the fleet renewal, which we get a chance to discuss as well. But, the investment here is not a straying really away from what we've done in the past, as you'll remember, we've always had some MR exposure.

是的，謝謝，約翰。早安.我期待著這個問題。我只想強調一點，我們的首要任務顯然是我們的核心機隊和 TK 的核心業務以及機隊更新，我們也有機會討論這個問題。但是，這裡的投資並沒有真正偏離我們過去所做的，正如你們會記得的，我們一直有一些 MR 投資。

We haven't had it for some time. We looked around, the market was up for some time. When it took a big dip last year towards the end, we thought that was just very good value, and we made a very small investment as you can see in that company relative to our asset base here. And it was always meant to be small. We just, it was opportunistic, and it was a financial investment. And then what happened was, as we saw last week.

我們已經有一段時間沒有吃過它了。我們環顧四周，發現市場已經上漲了一段時間。當該公司在去年年底大幅下跌時，我們認為這是一個很好的價值，而且正如你所看到的，相對於我們的資產基礎而言，我們對該公司的投資非常小。而且它本來就應該很小。我們只是，這是一種機會主義，是一項金融投資。然後發生的事情正如我們上週所看到的那樣。

A more announced that they That brought back 4% of their shares and that kind of falls into the 5.1%. But I just want to emphasize it's a small investment. We think it's good value and when you have a bit of investment here, I think it keeps us focused on the adjacent sectors in a different manner. Okay.

另一家公司宣布，他們將收回 4% 的股份，並將其降至 5.1% 以內。但我只想強調這是一項小投資。我們認為它很有價值，而且當你在這裡進行一點投資時，我認為它會讓我們以不同的方式專注於相鄰的領域。好的。

And then in my follow up, you just, announced this morning, the new LR 2 that you're purchasing that you're going to get in the 2nd quarter, you're still selling, at a quicker pace than you're, replacing, which I think makes sense, in this asset value environment so. Kind of a similar question, how do you think about the continued pace of renewal, buying versus selling, and then also in the last two years in the first quarter you've had special dividends.

然後在我的後續問題中，您今天早上剛剛宣布，您購買的新型 LR 2 將在第二季度交付，您的銷售速度仍然比更換速度要快，我認為這在這種資產價值環境下是合理的。類似的問題，您如何看待持續的更新步伐、買入與賣出，以及過去兩年第一季您有沒有獲得特別股息。

I would think that given the cash balance today, the proceeds that you're raising from these vessel sales, you're even in even in a stronger position, but on the other hand, the market's a bit more uncertain, so, a lot in there, but kind of, pace of replacement and and capital allocation, within that.

我認為，考慮到今天的現金餘額，以及你從這些船舶銷售中籌集的收益，你甚至處於更有利的地位，但另一方面，市場有點不確定，所以，其中有很多，但在其中，替換速度和資本配置。

Yeah, great questions. And obviously what we're spending all our time, discussing and, making decisions around here. and I would say on the fleet renewal, you're right. And as I commented on in the remarks and the Q&A at last quarter, we're looking at selling some of our older vessels and we're looking at buying. And some newer vessels, and that's all part of being an operating company, obviously, and the renewal of our fleet, as you will know, we've been sweating our assets heavily over the past three years, and I think that's been great. We've also been running off ship years and we think now is a pretty good time to start leaning in. You're correctly pointing out that we are.

是的，很好的問題。顯然，我們花了很多時間在這裡討論和做出決定。我想說，關於機隊更新，你是對的。正如我在上個季度的評論和問答中所說的那樣，我們正在考慮出售一些舊船隻，並正在考慮購買。還有一些較新的船隻，這顯然都是作為一家營運公司的一部分，以及我們船隊的更新，正如你所知，我們在過去三年中一直在大量使用我們的資產，我認為這很好。我們也已經在海上度過了許多年，我們認為現在是開始傾身的好時機。您正確地指出我們確實如此。

More vessels than than we're buying up to now. If you look at it in ship years, we are, we're actually buying more shipyards and we're selling. So I think it just speaks to how we're trying to manage where we are in the cycle and at the same time trying to renew the the the fleet here. So we're leaning in to your second question on on capital allocation.

到目前為止，我們購買的船隻數量已經超過了數量。如果按照船舶年份來看，我們實際上正在購買更多的船廠，並且正在出售。所以我認為這只是說明了我們如何嘗試管理我們所處的周期位置，並同時嘗試更新這裡的船隊。因此，我們傾向於回答您關於資本配置的第二個問題。

It's clear we're in a in a very strong position when we When we embarked on this cycle a couple of years ago here, we always had it as a stated objective that we wanted to rebuild financial strength and financial flexibility at at TK. And, I think everybody, anybody looking at our van you can say that that's what we've done, and we're pretty excited about that.

很明顯，當我們幾年前開始這個週期時，我們處於非常有利的地位，我們始終有一個既定目標，那就是重建 TK 的財務實力和財務靈活性。而且，我想每個人，任何看到我們的貨車的人都會說這就是我們所做的，我們對此感到非常興奮。

That's what you need to do in a cyclical business that is capital intensive, I think the next couple of years are going to be interesting. So clearly, for people that have the capital to make investments, I think we are in a position where we can hopefully, make some investments that's going to create some good long term shareholder value.

這就是你在資本密集的週期性業務中所需要做的事情，我認為未來幾年將會很有趣。因此顯然，對於擁有資本進行投資的人來說，我認為我們可以進行一些投資，從而創造良好的長期股東價值。

And then that brings you to the question that you're asking around special dividends, which is always part Of the capital allocation plan, as we're not the company out there that's paying out all our earnings, and we've been very clear on that from the beginning. And we have a fixed dividend, which we also declared this quarter and, once a year we have the discussion with the board, whether there's a special dividend coming and that's on the agenda for this board meeting that's coming up soon.

然後這就引出了你所問的有關特別股息的問題，這始終是資本配置計劃的一部分，因為我們不是支付所有收益的公司，我們從一開始就非常清楚這一點。我們有固定股息，我們也在本季度宣布了這一股息，並且每年我們都會與董事會討論一次是否會派發特別股息，這已經列入即將召開的董事會會議的議程。

Okay, thanks for the. Thoughts. Thanks for you.

好的，謝謝你。想法。謝謝你。

We'll move next to Omar Nochta with Jefferies.

接下來我們與 Jefferies 一起採訪 Omar Nochta。

Thank you. Hi Kenneth, and team, a couple from my side, maybe just first kind of a follow up to John's questions and then a market related, question. But yeah, just kind of on the last topic, obviously you're flush with cash, no debt, plenty of liquidity, and you know the cash is coming in much faster than you're able to deploy it maybe just kind of bigger picture on how you see TNK from here, do you see the platform maybe evolving in terms of.

謝謝。嗨，肯尼斯，還有我的團隊，我這邊的幾個人，可能首先是對約翰的問題的跟進，然後是一個與市場相關的問題。但是的，就最後一個主題而言，顯然您資金充裕，沒有債務，流動性充足，而且您知道現金流入的速度比您能夠部署的速度要快得多，也許您從更大角度看待 TNK，您是否認為該平台可能會不斷發展。

The Ardmore stake perhaps is not a one-off and that you have your operating tanker fleet, you've got the marine business with TK Australia. Do you think that you're going to have a growing portfolio approach perhaps where you're taking stakes in other equities and that's sort of a an avenue of exposure to the sector without having to to to put capital to work physically.

阿德莫爾 (Ardmore) 的股份可能並不是一次性的，而且您還擁有自己的油輪船隊，並且與 TK 澳大利亞 (TK Australia) 開展了海運業務。您是否認為您將採用一種不斷增長的投資組合方法，即您持有其他股票，這是進入該行業的途徑，而不必實際投入資本。

Yeah, no, I don't, I think I just want to emphasize that the more investment is really small in our, total, capital allocation, plan here. The number one priority is obviously looking after our our core fleet. We are an operating company and we are keen to deploy capital in a manner where we invest in our operating platform, which as is fully integrated with.

是的，不，我不這麼認為，我想我只是想強調一下，在我們的整體資本配置計劃中，更多的投資確實很少。首要任務顯然是照顧我們的核心船隊。我們是一家營運公司，我們熱衷於以投資與我們完全整合的營運平台的方式部署資本。

Technical management and all the commercial management. So we're looking to add assets that we, where we can bring value to those assets by putting them on our platform. And that's obviously not by investing in other companies. So I just want to be very clear on that that that that's our number one priority.

技術管理和全部商業管理。因此，我們希望增加資產，透過將這些資產放在我們的平台上，我們可以為這些資產帶來價值。這顯然不是透過投資其他公司來實現的。所以我只想非常清楚地表明，這是我們的首要任務。

As you point out, it's, we, we're generating cash faster than we're able to deploy it. I would say it's not a problem to deploy cash. I think it's, it may be hard to keep patients in, to be patient in the market, like we're in, but we are, and I mean, we've been through a lot of cycles over the past 50 years as a company, and many of us have been through a few cycles. So I think we know that to be patient sometimes pays off and but that's exactly what we're doing here. So I don't think it's a matter of that we cannot deploy it. I think it's a matter of being patient.

正如你所指出的，我們產生現金的速度比我們部署現金的速度快。我想說部署現金沒有問題。我認為，在我們所處的市場中，保持耐心、保持耐心可能很難，但我們還是可以做到，我的意思是，作為一家公司，我們在過去 50 年裡經歷了很多周期，我們中的許多人都經歷過幾個週期。所以我想我們知道耐心有時會有回報，但這正是我們在這裡所做的。所以我不認為這是我們無法部署它的問題。我認為這是一個耐心的問題。

Okay, yeah, thank you. And then just, 11 quick follow up just on that note and appreciate your comments of, having taken a sub 5% stake but by virtue of the buyback you you've now had to file the 13G. Do I take it that this is just as you say it's a small opportunistic holding with no plans perhaps of wanting to to increase the size of that position.

好的，是的，謝謝你。然後，我只是快速跟進這件事，並感謝您的評論，您持有不到 5% 的股份，但根據回購，您現在必須提交 13G。我是否認為，正如您所說，這只是一筆小額機會性持股，也許並沒有增加持股規模的計劃。

Yeah, that's right. I had a fellow CEO called yesterday and we talked about it, but, they clearly saw that there was good value there as well and it wasn't really our fault, so yeah, you're right.

是的，沒錯。昨天我給一位執行長同事打了電話，我們討論了這個問題，但他們清楚地看到，這也有很大的價值，而且這並不是我們的錯，所以，是的，你是對的。

Okay, all right, and then if I could just ask a question about the market and you referenced this in your presentation, just all the sanctioned discussion and how potentially there's 73 ships coming on, into sanction next week. I think you said from the EU just like, I guess, in general, given your significant kind of market presence within the Aromaxes.

好的，好吧，然後如果我可以問一個關於市場的問題，您在演講中提到了這一點，只是所有獲得批准的討論，以及下周可能有 73 艘船獲得批准。我認為您所說的來自歐盟，就像我想的那樣，一般來說，考慮到您在 Aromaxes 中的重要市場地位。

The 150 or so tankers that were sanctioned in January by the US, Obviously there's all kinds of uncertainty as to how long those sanctions may hold. We just want to get a sense from you, given, your active participation in this space. Have you seen an effect or an impact of those sanctions yet on the Aromax market? And then how do you see it affecting things if those get lifted?

今年 1 月，美國對約 150 艘油輪實施了製裁，顯然這些制裁將持續多久存在各種不確定性。鑑於您積極參與這一領域，我們只是想了解您的情況。您是否已經看到這些制裁對 Aromax 市場的影響？那麼，您認為如果解除這些限制將會產生什麼影響呢？

Yeah, hi, Omar, I think we have seen an impact from the sanctions that were placed on January 10th. of those ships that were sanctioned, it was over 150 tankers, and the majority of those were serving the Russian Far East trade out of Cosmino.

是的，你好，奧馬爾，我認為我們已經看到了 1 月 10 日實施的製裁的影響。在受到製裁的船隻中，有超過 150 艘油輪，其中大多數在科斯米諾港為俄羅斯遠東貿易提供服務。

And in the weeks following that, we've certainly seen difficulties in Russia getting that all out of Cosmino into China, and we've also seen, India as well having to look at alternative sources. So if you look at what's happened in the market over the past month.

在接下來的幾周里，我們看到俄羅斯在將科斯米諾的所有原油運往中國方面遇到了許多困難，同時我們也看到印度也必須尋找其他原油來源。如果你看看過去一個月市場發生了什麼事。

We are seeing a bit of a drop in Russian exports and and Chinese and Indian buyers are having to look for alternative sources of crude. So we've seen an increase in volumes from the Middle East, but also from West Africa and other parts of the Atlantic to make up for the shortfall here, which is why we've seen some volatility on the VLCC side in particular.

我們看到俄羅斯出口略有下降，中國和印度買家不得不尋找替代原油來源。因此，我們看到來自中東、西非和大西洋其他地區的貨運量增加，以彌補這裡的短缺，這就是為什麼我們看到 VLCC 方面出現了一些波動。

Which is then helping out the Suez maxes a little bit as well. So the OFAC sanctions, they are having an impact, as you said, we don't know what the future is from here, whether we're going to get more sanctions or or relaxation on sanctions, but as Kenneth said in his remarks, all this uncertainty does create volatility, when you have changes to trade patterns, disruptions. It all speaks to volatility. So we are seeing a bit of an impact in the freight market, but, as you said, very difficult to sort of project forward how this is going to evolve in the coming months.

這對蘇伊士運河的暢通也有一定的幫助。因此，OFAC 的製裁正在產生影響，正如你所說，我們不知道未來會發生什麼，我們是否會受到更多的製裁或放鬆制裁，但正如肯尼斯在演講中所說，當貿易模式發生變化、中斷時，所有這些不確定性確實會造成波動。這一切都說明了波動性。因此，我們看到貨運市場受到了一些影響，但正如你所說，很難預測未來幾個月將如何發展。

Good thanks thanks Christian. I appreciate the the color there and and kind of thank you as well. I'll turn it over.

很好，謝謝，謝謝克里斯蒂安。我很欣賞那裡的色彩，也非常感謝你。我把它翻過來。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll move next to Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

接下來我們請到美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Hey, great, good morning. If, I guess talking about the rates, right, so we had a 24,28. $1000 per day for the swis max Aromax at just about 2/3 and just over half of the quarterly days booked that's down a bit from the fourth quarter, but yet we're talking about more sanctions having a positive impact, seasonally colder weather, increasing power needs. So is the additional capacity creating the bigger overhang? What's driving what's your thoughts on what's driving the rates pressure on rates near term here?

嘿，太好了，早安。如果，我想談論的是利率，那麼我們有 24,28。 swis max Aromax 的價格為每天 1000 美元，大約佔季度預訂天數的 2/3，略高於一半，比第四季度略有下降，但我們正在談論更多製裁產生積極影響，季節性寒冷天氣增加電力需求。那麼，額外的產能是否會造成更大的產能過剩呢？您對推動近期利率壓力的因素有何看法？

Yeah, I mean, for sure we, I think in tourist maxes there was a weaker finish to 2024 and a weaker start to 2025. And I think what we've seen now is an uplift certainly this week, the fixture list is significantly stronger than what we average. So I think what's driving that as as we talked about in prepared remarks can is really the, where's the, arbitrass that that's moving off and the VLCCs that's been moving up and then some replacement barrels that that's really beginning to kick in now, as you recall, the sanctioned vessels, there was a bit of a delay on and they needed to offload and then there was a scrambling for cargos and that's driving it. So we just see more cargo demand in that direction.

是的，我的意思是，我認為，就旅遊人數而言，2024 年的結束會比較弱，2025 年的開始也會比較弱。我認為我們現在看到的是本週的比賽安排明顯有所提升，賽程安排明顯比平均水平好得多。因此，我認為，正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，推動這一現象的真正原因是，仲裁員在哪裡，VLCC 的價格一直在上漲，然後是一些替換桶，現在真正開始發揮作用，正如你記得的，受制裁的船隻，有點延誤，他們需要卸貨，然後人們爭相搶購貨物，這就是推動這一現象的原因。因此，我們看到這個方向的貨運需求增加。

Okay, and then if we think about, I guess the delays in the tariffs and some of the delays are going to, if we start getting to a point of peace in between Russia and Ukraine, and that's going to take some time to develop the same thing in the Middle East with the Houthis, what, what's your thought on how that pans out, what shifts you see first, how quick I guess based on historical experience.

好的，然後如果我們考慮一下，我想關稅的延遲和一些延遲將會導致什麼，如果我們開始在俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間達成和平協議，而中東與胡塞武裝之間也需要一些時間才能發展出同樣的事情，您認為這將如何發展，您首先看到什麼變化，根據歷史經驗，我猜會有多快。

Yeah, I think that's where we're in unprecedented territory. We haven't really, as I think back historically had this situation before. As I said, if we just look at the medium sized tankers, what really stands out is that before the invasion, as I said we just had just over 100 ships that were over 20 years old, and they were typically trading.

是的，我認為這就是我們處於前所未有的領域。我回想起來，我們其實並沒有遇到這種情況。正如我所說的，如果我們只看中型油輪，真正引人注目的是，在入侵之前，正如我所說的，我們只有 100 多艘超過 20 年的船齡，而且它們通常都在進行貿易。

And with with charterers that didn't have the typical age restriction and they were typically lifting cargoes from from countries where you had various degrees of sanctioned oil and of course the what what the the war created was this demand for additional vessels to facilitate that trade and as we point out that fleet has now grown up, well, the fleet is larger, but The number of vessels over 20 today is over 300 vessels, right? So it's grown just in 3 years from 100 to 300 basically because nothing has been scrapped.

對於沒有典型年齡限制的租船人來說，他們通常從擁有不同程度的受制裁石油的國家裝運貨物，當然，戰爭創造了對更多船隻的需求以促進貿易，正如我們所指出的，現在船隊已經成長，船隊規模更大，但今天超過 20 艘的船隻數量已經超過 300 艘了，對嗎？因此，它在短短 3 年內就從 100 增長到了 300，基本上因為沒有任何東西被廢棄。

And what we are then also saying is that if that continues the sanctions, even though you can argue that the parallel figure is maybe being becoming. But then you have another round of sanctioned vessels that are that are taking place, and then there's demand for more vessels that are not sanctions that can carry the oil. So as long as that persists, I think there is a demand for the older tankers.

我們還要說的是，如果繼續實施制裁，儘管你可以說平行數字可能正在形成。但隨後又有新一輪的受制裁船隻出現，因此需要更多不受制裁的船隻來運載石油。所以只要這種情況持續下去，我認為對老式油輪就有需求。

So if nothing happens and we didn't scrap any vessels in that category, as we point out, we would actually be at 6,000 vessels that are over 20. And there's nothing in history that that kind of tells us what, how quickly that can unfold. I think what we can say is that if the trade normalizes and what we all are subjected to in kind of the regular trade, I mean, we do see the The age restrictions that especially at 20 degrees starts kicking in and in some cases with some charters even earlier than that.

因此，如果沒有任何事情發生，而且我們也沒有拆除該類別的任何船隻，正如我們所指出的，我們實際上將有 6,000 艘超過 20 艘的船隻。而歷史上並沒有任何東西可以告訴我們這會發生什麼，以及它將以多快的速度發生。我認為我們可以說的是，如果貿易正常化並且我們都受到常規貿易的影響，我的意思是，我們確實看到了年齡限制，特別是在 20 度時開始生效，在某些情況下，一些章程甚至比這更早。

So there is a lot of vessels here that I think will either be operating with very low utilization or will be parked somewhere or will start going to the scrap yards. At what pace that that's going to happen, I think that's the million dollar question. And I think it's the right question to ask. But, I'm afraid we don't have the answer.

所以我認為這裡有很多船隻要么利用率很低，要么停泊在某處，要么開始進入廢料場。我認為，這將以什麼樣的速度發生，這是一個價值百萬美元的問題。我認為這是正確的問題。但恐怕我們沒有答案。

Appreciate that. That's true. It's an awful lot compared to normal. So maybe just two quick ones just to wrap up the seasonality that you normally see in in through 12 into. Maybe you could just remind us of that. And then, you mentioned the vessel purchased. Are you seeing a lot of, especially with that much overcapacity potentially hitting and what that could do to rates are you seeing more books come across your desk in terms of of vessel sale opportunities?

非常感謝。這是真的。與正常情況相比，這真是太多了。因此，也許只需快速說兩個詞來總結一下您通常在 12 到 13 年間看到的季節性。也許您可以提醒我們這一點。然後，您提到了購買的船隻。您是否看到了很多，特別是在可能出現如此嚴重的產能過剩的情況下，這會對運費產生什麼影響，您是否看到更多的船舶銷售機會出現在您的辦公桌上？

Yeah, good question. So first of all, just on where we see the race, I think we kind of touched on it and we, when we looked at it, typically when you come into Q4 and go out of Q1, you kind of have rates that that start low and go up and then they start coming down as you get into Que2.

是的，好問題。首先，就我們對競爭的看法而言，我想我們已經提到了這一點，當我們觀察它時，通常當你進入第四季度並走出第一季時，你會看到利率從低開始上升，然後當你進入第二季時，利率開始下降。

This.

這。

Two quarters we've kind of seen the inverse of that, I would say so a little bit unusual, but we've had unusual years in the past couple of years, but that's kind of where where rates have been going. So we definitely it looks like we're moving stronger into Q2, but it's kind of the inverse of what we saw last year.

兩個季度以來，我們看到了相反的情況，我認為這有點不尋常，但過去幾年確實不尋常，但這就是利率的方向。因此，我們確實看起來在第二季度表現得更強勁，但這與去年的情況有些相反。

And, in terms of S&P opportunities, yeah, market has come down on vessels, which is also why we're beginning to lean in a bit as we, as we said to John, I mean, and as we talked about on the last quarter, we We kind of see ourselves maybe selling a little bit faster than we're buying, but we have fleet replenishment and we haven't done a lot in recent years. And, we've seen prices, come into kind of a zip code that we're beginning to like again. So that's why we required 111 ship today and then we'll continue to look for opportunities.

就標準普爾機會而言，是的，市場對船舶的需求已經下降，這也是我們開始有點傾向於此的原因，正如我們對約翰所說的那樣，我的意思是，正如我們在上個季度所討論的那樣，我們看到自己的銷售速度可能比購買速度快一點，但我們有船隊補充，而近年來我們沒有做太多的事情。而且，我們看到價格又回到了我們開始喜歡的那種郵遞區號。所以這就是為什麼我們今天需要 111 艘船，然後我們會繼續尋找機會。

When people have had a couple of good years, as most tank owners have had, some owners have different priorities and as we continue to say, I mean, we're an operating company. We like to have a certain scale in the market. So we'll obviously be focused on on trying to renew the fleet, but we'll do it at a very measured pace here.

當人們度過了幾年好時光時，就像大多數油罐車主一樣，一些車主有不同的優先事項，正如我們一直說的那樣，我的意思是，我們是一家營運公司。我們希望在市場上擁有一定的規模。因此，我們顯然會專注於嘗試更新機隊，但我們會以非常有節制的速度進行。

Very helpful appreciate the thoughts thanks guys.

非常有幫助，非常感謝大家的想法。

Thanks, appreciate it. Thanks man.

謝謝，很感激。謝謝老兄。

And that will conclude the Q&A portion of today's call. I will now turn the call back to the company for any

今天電話會議的問答部分就到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給公司，以便

additional or closing remarks.

補充或結束語。

Thank you very much for listening in to our call today. We look forward to reporting back to you next forum. thank you. Have a good day.

非常感謝您今天收聽我們的電話會議。我們期待在下次論壇上向您報告。謝謝。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you ladies and gentlemen that will conclude today's call. You may now disconnect. okay.

謝謝各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議就到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。好的。