TJX Companies Inc (TJX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to The TJX Companies Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, November 16, 2022.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 TJX 公司 2023 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次電話會議將於 2022 年 11 月 16 日進行錄製。

I would like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President of The TJX Companies, Inc. Please go ahead, sir.

我想將電話會議轉交給 TJX Companies, Inc. 首席執行官兼總裁 Ernie Herrman 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Fran. Before we begin, Jeff has some opening comments.

謝謝你，弗蘭。在我們開始之前，傑夫有一些開場白。

Thank you, Ernie, and good morning. The forward-looking statements we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including, without limitation, the Form 10-K filed March 30, 2022. Further, these comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by the TJX Companies, Inc. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction or other use of the same, for profit or otherwise without prior consent of TJX is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright laws.

謝謝你，厄尼，早上好。我們今天就公司的業績和計劃所做的前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果和公司計劃的實施發生重大變化。這些風險在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論，包括但不限於 2022 年 3 月 30 日提交的 10-K 表格。此外，這些評論和隨後的問答今天受 TJX Companies, Inc. 的版權保護。任何錄音、轉播、未經 TJX 事先同意，禁止以營利或其他方式複製或以其他方式使用這些內容，這違反了美國版權法。

Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript. We have detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international divisions in today's press release and the Investors section of our website, tjx.com. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are posted on our website, tjx.com, in the Investors section.

此外，雖然我們已批准第三方發布此次通話的文字記錄，但我們對文字記錄中可能出現的不准確之處不承擔任何責任。我們在今天的新聞稿和我們網站 tjx.com 的投資者部分詳細介紹了外匯對我們綜合業績和國際部門的影響。我們今天討論的非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 指標的對賬已發佈在我們網站 tjx.com 的投資者部分。

Thank you. And now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.

謝謝你。現在我會把它轉回給厄尼。

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning. Joining me and Jeff on the call is Scott Goldenberg. As we announced today, John Klinger is being promoted to Chief Financial Officer at the beginning of our new fiscal year in late January. I wanted to take this opportunity to congratulate John on his broader role, and I look forward to working more closely with them as we move forward. Scott is remaining with the company as Senior Executive Vice President, Finance. I would like to recognize his long and extremely successful tenure as CFO for which we are enormously grateful. I cannot emphasize enough how beneficial Scott has been to me personally, he has truly been a great partner. We are very pleased that TJX will continue to benefit from both John and Scott's expertise and leadership.

謝謝，傑夫。早上好。與我和 Jeff 一起通話的是 Scott Goldenberg。正如我們今天宣布的那樣，John Klinger 將在 1 月下旬的新財政年度開始時晉升為首席財務官。我想藉此機會祝賀約翰擔任更廣泛的職務，並期待在我們前進的過程中與他們更密切地合作。 Scott 將繼續留在公司擔任財務高級執行副總裁。我想承認他作為首席財務官的長期和極其成功的任期，我們對此深表感謝。我怎麼強調斯科特對我個人的幫助都不為過，他真的是一個很好的合作夥伴。我們很高興 TJX 將繼續受益於 John 和 Scott 的專業知識和領導能力。

I'll start today by thanking all of our global associates for their hard work and commitment to TJX. We truly appreciate their collective efforts to deliver great merchandise and values to our shoppers every day.

今天開始，我要感謝我們所有的全球員工的辛勤工作和對 TJX 的承諾。我們非常感謝他們每天為我們的購物者提供優質商品和價值的集體努力。

Now to our results. I am very pleased with our third quarter performance. Once again, we delivered strong profitability and a terrific merchandise margin. On the top line, our better-than-expected U.S. comp sales were driven by the excellent performance at Marmaxx, particularly its apparel business, where sales were strong. Our third quarter results once again highlight the outstanding execution of our flexible business model by our very talented associates. While our business is not immune to macro factors, I am convinced that the flexibility of our off-price retail model and the depth of our expertise and experience, especially within our merchant organization, will remain an important advantage for us.

現在我們的結果。我對我們第三季度的表現感到非常滿意。我們再次實現了強勁的盈利能力和可觀的商品利潤率。最重要的是，我們好於預期的美國 comp 銷售額是由 Marmaxx 的出色表現推動的，尤其是其服裝業務，該業務銷售額強勁。我們第三季度的業績再次突顯了我們才華橫溢的員工對我們靈活業務模式的出色執行。雖然我們的業務不能免受宏觀因素的影響，但我相信我們的低價零售模式的靈活性以及我們專業知識和經驗的深度，尤其是在我們的商家組織中，將仍然是我們的重要優勢。

As we enter the fourth quarter, we're in a terrific position to take advantage of the tremendous buying environment and to flow fresh exciting assortments to our stores and online this holiday season. We have many initiatives planned to drive sales and our value proposition remains very strong. Further, we are convinced that our great values will continue to resonate with consumers whose wallets remain stretched. Medium and longer term, we remain extremely confident that TJX is well positioned to gain market share and become an even more profitable company.

當我們進入第四季度時，我們處於一個極好的位置，可以利用巨大的購買環境，並在這個假期季節向我們的商店和在線提供新鮮令人興奮的商品。我們有許多計劃來推動銷售，我們的價值主張仍然非常強大。此外，我們相信，我們的偉大價值觀將繼續引起錢包仍然緊張的消費者的共鳴。從中長期來看，我們仍然非常有信心 TJX 有能力獲得市場份額並成為一家盈利能力更強的公司。

I'll talk more about our holiday plans and our opportunities beyond 2022 in a moment. Before I continue, though, I'll turn the call over to Scott to cover our third quarter financial results in more detail. Scott?

稍後我將詳細討論我們的假期計劃和 2022 年以後的機會。不過，在我繼續之前，我會把電話轉給斯科特，以更詳細地介紹我們第三季度的財務業績。斯科特？

Thanks, Ernie, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with some additional details on the third quarter. Third quarter consolidated pretax margin of 11.2%, was up 20 basis points versus last year. Third quarter pretax margin exceeded the high end of our guidance, largely due to the timing of some expenses. Our plans for the fourth quarter assume that most of this benefit will reverse out. Aside from the timing of expenses, the other components of our pretax margin were essentially in line with the high end of our plan.

謝謝，厄尼，大家早上好。我將從第三季度的一些額外細節開始。第三季度綜合稅前利潤率為 11.2%，比去年同期上升 20 個基點。第三季度稅前利潤率超過了我們指導的上限，這主要是由於一些費用的時間安排。我們第四季度的計劃假設大部分收益將會逆轉。除了費用的時間安排外，我們稅前利潤率的其他組成部分基本上符合我們計劃的高端。

Merchandise margin was flat, despite 120 basis points of incremental freight pressure. Within merchandise margin, we saw a significant benefit from mark-on mostly due to better buying. Incremental wage costs continued to be a headwind to pretax margin with a negative impact of 80 basis points this quarter. Third quarter U.S. comp store sales decreased 2% and exceeded our expectations. As a reminder, we were anniversary-ing an outsized 16% U.S. open-only comp increase last year, which was versus fiscal '20. When added together, our comp would represent a 14% increase on a 3-year stack basis. Further, U.S. comp sales improved each month of the quarter on that same 3-year stack basis. Excluding foreign exchange, third quarter total sales would have been at the high end of our guidance.

儘管貨運壓力增加了 120 個基點，但商品利潤率持平。在商品利潤率方面，我們看到加價帶來的顯著好處主要是由於更好的購買。增量工資成本繼續對稅前利潤率構成不利影響，本季度產生了 80 個基點的負面影響。第三季度美國商店銷售額下降 2%，超出了我們的預期。提醒一下，去年我們正在慶祝美國開放式公司 16% 的超額增幅，這與 20 財年相比。當加在一起時，我們的補償將代表 3 年堆棧基礎上增加 14%。此外，在相同的 3 年堆棧基礎上，本季度每個月的美國 comp 銷售額都有所改善。不包括外匯，第三季度總銷售額將處於我們指導的高端。

For the third quarter, U.S. average basket was up U.S. customer traffic was down, but strengthened as the quarter progressed and improved versus the second quarter. Lastly, adjusted earnings per share were $0.86. Again, this was above the high end of our guidance, largely due to a benefit from the timing of some expenses, and our plans for the fourth quarter assume that most of this benefit will reverse out.

對於第三季度，美國平均購物籃有所上升 美國客戶流量有所下降，但隨著季度的進展和與第二季度的改善相比有所加強。最後，調整後每股收益為 0.86 美元。同樣，這高於我們指導的上限，這主要是由於一些支出的時間安排帶來的好處，我們第四季度的計劃假設大部分好處將被逆轉。

Now to our divisional results. At Marmaxx, third quarter segment profit margin was 13.5%. Comp store sales increased 3% versus an 11% open-only comp increase last year. Marmaxx's comp sales were positive each month and improved throughout the quarter. Again, it was great to see a strong comp increase in Marmaxx's apparel business. Once again, Marmaxx's average basket increased as it has throughout the year. While customer traffic was down, Marmaxx will improvement each month of the quarter and versus the second quarter.

現在我們的部門結果。在 Marmaxx，第三季度分部利潤率為 13.5%。商店銷售額增長了 3%，而去年只開放商店的銷售額增長了 11%。 Marmaxx 的補償銷售額每個月都是正數，並且在整個季度都有所改善。同樣，很高興看到 Marmaxx 服裝業務的強勁增長。再次，Marmaxx 的平均籃子增加了全年。雖然客戶流量下降，但 Marmaxx 將在本季度的每個月以及與第二季度相比有所改善。

At HomeGoods, third quarter segment profit margin was 8.9%. The segment profit margin improvement versus the first half of this year was mostly due to a significant moderation of the year-over-year impact of incremental freight costs. Comp store sales decreased 16% versus a 34% open-only comp increase last year when we saw an outsized -- when we saw outsized spending in home-related categories. HomeGoods' average basket increased slightly.

在 HomeGoods，第三季度分部利潤率為 8.9%。與今年上半年相比，該部門的利潤率有所提高，這主要是由於增量運費的同比影響顯著減弱。去年，當我們看到一個超大的家庭相關類別的超大支出時，Comp 商店銷售額下降了 16%，而去年僅開放的 comp 增長了 34%。 HomeGoods 的平均購物籃略有增加。

At TJX Canada, we are pleased with the overall -- with their overall performance, particularly their strong profitability. Third quarter segment profit margin was 15.8%, exceeding their fiscal '20 margin. Overall sales on a constant currency basis were up 4% in the third quarter. Further, third quarter Canadian sales growth also improved each month of the quarter when compared to fiscal '20.

在 TJX Canada，我們對他們的整體表現感到滿意，尤其是他們強勁的盈利能力。第三季度分部利潤率為 15.8%，超過其 20 財年的利潤率。第三季度按固定匯率計算的整體銷售額增長了 4%。此外，與 20 財年相比，加拿大第三季度的銷售增長在本季度的每個月都有所改善。

At TJX International, third quarter segment profit margin was 6.7%, despite some deleverage from lower sales, pretax margin was essentially in line versus fiscal '20, due to better buying and expense management, which mostly offset incremental freight wage and other expense pressures. Overall sales on a constant currency basis were down 1% from the third quarter.

在 TJX International，第三季度分部利潤率為 6.7%，儘管銷售下降帶來了一些去槓桿作用，但稅前利潤率與 20 財年基本持平，這是由於更好的採購和費用管理，這主要抵消了增量運費和其他費用壓力。按固定匯率計算的整體銷售額較第三季度下降 1%。

Moving to inventory. Our balance sheet inventory was up 26% versus the third quarter last year. This is higher than we expected due to early receipts of merchandise as the supply chain continued to improve. On a per-store basis, inventory was up 31% on a constant currency basis. We are very comfortable with our balance sheet and store inventory levels when compared to fiscal '20. Importantly, overall store inventory turns and markdowns are in line with our fiscal '20 levels. We still have plenty of liquidity and under an excellent position to take advantage of the great buying environment, including packaway opportunities.

移動到庫存。與去年第三季度相比，我們的資產負債表庫存增加了 26%。由於隨著供應鏈的持續改善而提早收到商品，這一數字高於我們的預期。在每家商店的基礎上，庫存在固定貨幣基礎上增長了 31%。與 20 財年相比，我們對我們的資產負債表和商店庫存水平感到非常滿意。重要的是，整體商店庫存周轉率和降價幅度符合我們 20 財年的水平。我們仍然有充足的流動性，並且處於利用良好的購買環境（包括打包機會）的絕佳位置。

I'll finish with our liquidity and shareholder distributions. During the third quarter, we generated $1.1 billion of operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $3.4 billion in cash. In the third quarter, we returned $843 million to shareholders through our buyback and dividend programs.

我將結束我們的流動性和股東分配。第三季度，我們產生了 11 億美元的運營現金流，並在本季度末擁有 34 億美元的現金。第三季度，我們通過回購和派息計劃向股東返還了 8.43 億美元。

Now I will turn it back to Ernie.

現在我會把它轉回給厄尼。

Thanks, Scott. Now I'd like to highlight the opportunities we see to drive traffic and sales in the fourth quarter.

謝謝，斯科特。現在我想強調我們在第四季度看到的推動流量和銷售的機會。

First, in this inflationary environment, we believe it is important as ever to deliver shoppers excellent value throughout the store and online every time they visit. This is our top priority, and I am confident that our banners will be a destination for consumers seeking great value this holiday season. Second, as I've been saying all year long, the marketplace is absolutely loaded with quality branded merchandise across good, better and best brands. Importantly, this has set us up very well to offer an excellent assortment of branded gifts this holiday season that we believe will excite and inspire our shoppers. Third, I want to highlight that we plan to flow fresh product to our stores and online multiple times a week, which is a key differentiator of our business compared to many other retailers. With a rapidly changing merchandise mix, I am confident that shoppers are going to be very satisfied with the gift assortments they see every time they visit. Our stored teams are excellent at managing this flow and creating fresh organized shopping presentations throughout our stores.

首先，在這種通貨膨脹的環境中，我們認為，在購物者每次光顧時，在整個商店和網上為他們提供卓越的價值一如既往地重要。這是我們的首要任務，我相信我們的橫幅廣告將成為消費者在這個假期追求超值體驗的目的地。其次，正如我一整年都在說的那樣，市場上絕對充斥著優質、更好和最好品牌的優質品牌商品。重要的是，這讓我們做好了準備，可以在這個節日季提供種類繁多的品牌禮品，我們相信這些禮品會激發和啟發我們的購物者。第三，我想強調的是，我們計劃每週多次將新鮮產品送到我們的商店和網上，這是我們業務與許多其他零售商相比的一個關鍵區別。隨著商品組合的快速變化，我相信購物者會對他們每次光顧時看到的禮品分類感到非常滿意。我們的存儲團隊非常擅長管理這種流程，並在我們的整個商店中創建新的有組織的購物演示。

Next, we feel great about our holiday marketing campaigns that just launched. We believe these campaigns can help drive traffic from both new and existing shoppers across each of our banners. This year, each of our divisions will reinforce our value leadership and emphasize that shoppers can get more for their money when they visit. We are also highlighting the fresh flow of merchandise throughout the holiday season. with messaging such as spend less, get more all season long.

接下來，我們對剛剛啟動的假日營銷活動感到滿意。我們相信這些活動可以幫助通過我們的每個橫幅吸引新的和現有的購物者的流量。今年，我們的每個部門都將加強我們的價值領導力，並強調購物者在光顧時可以物有所值。我們還強調了整個假日季節的新鮮商品流通。通過消息傳遞，例如花更少，整個季節得到更多。

In the U.S. and Canada, we are leveraging the strengths of our retail brand portfolio in multi-banner campaigns, helping to drive efficiencies and building awareness. Further, for all our retail banners, we have strong comprehensive marketing plans in place to help us stand out. Lastly, the flexibility of our business model has allowed us to successfully operate our business against some level of retail promotion every year for the past 46 years. I really want to emphasize that we are extremely confident that we can manage through any type of promotional environment that we may see from other retailers in the fourth quarter and beyond. Looking beyond this year, we are convinced that we are set up very well to capitalize on the growth opportunities we see for our business in the medium and long term.

在美國和加拿大，我們在多橫幅廣告活動中利用我們零售品牌組合的優勢，幫助提高效率和建立知名度。此外，對於我們所有的零售標語，我們都有強大的綜合營銷計劃來幫助我們脫穎而出。最後，我們商業模式的靈活性使我們能夠在過去 46 年中每年都通過一定程度的零售促銷成功運營我們的業務。我真的想強調，我們非常有信心，我們可以在第四季度及以後從其他零售商那裡看到的任何類型的促銷環境中進行管理。展望今年以後，我們相信我們已經做好準備，可以利用我們在中長期業務中看到的增長機會。

On the top line, we believe we are well positioned to capture additional market share. We see many opportunities to drive sales and traffic as we attract a wide range of customers across many income demographics, which we believe is a key advantage of our business. Further, we have substantial store growth potential remaining in our current geographies around the world. In a retail environment where overall pricing has been reset higher, we believe our value proposition will be even more compelling and visible to consumers and that our treasure hunt shopping experience will hold tremendous appeal.

最重要的是，我們相信我們有能力奪取更多的市場份額。我們看到了許多推動銷售和流量的機會，因為我們吸引了來自許多收入人群的廣泛客戶，我們認為這是我們業務的一個關鍵優勢。此外，我們在全球現有地區仍有巨大的門店增長潛力。在整體定價被重新設定為更高的零售環境中，我們相信我們的價值主張將對消費者更具吸引力和可見性，我們的尋寶購物體驗將具有巨大的吸引力。

I want to reiterate our continued confidence in product availability to support our long-term growth plans. Throughout our history, availability of quality-branded inventory has never been an issue for us. Our more than 1,200 buyers source from a universe of approximately 21,000 vendors in from over 100 countries. There has always been significantly more merchandise in the marketplace than we could buy, and we expect that to continue.

我想重申我們對產品可用性的持續信心，以支持我們的長期增長計劃。縱觀我們的歷史，優質品牌庫存的可用性對我們來說從來都不是問題。我們的 1,200 多名買家來自 100 多個國家/地區的大約 21,000 家供應商。市場上的商品總是比我們能買到的多得多，我們希望這種情況會繼續下去。

As to our profitability outlook, we remain committed to returning to our fiscal 2020 pretax margin level. To be clear, that would be a 10.6% pretax margin by fiscal 2025. Over the next 2 years, our plans assume additional merchandise margin opportunities across all of our divisions. We also expect our overall expense headwinds to moderate and that freight will be a tailwind next year. Lastly, this outlook assumes that our overall comp store sales will return to a low single-digit increase in each of the next 2 years.

至於我們的盈利前景，我們仍然致力於恢復到 2020 財年的稅前利潤率水平。需要明確的是，到 2025 財年，這將是 10.6% 的稅前利潤率。在接下來的 2 年裡，我們的計劃假設我們所有部門都有額外的商品利潤率機會。我們還預計我們的整體費用逆風將有所緩和，明年運費將成為順風。最後，這一展望假設我們的整體商店銷售額在未來 2 年的每一年都將恢復到較低的個位數增長。

Turning to corporate responsibility. I am pleased to share with you that our 2022 Global Corporate Responsibility Report was published this past quarter and is available on tjx.com. This report summarizes our fiscal 2022 initiatives and progress within our 4 areas of focus, which are workplace, communities, environmental sustainability and responsible business. The report includes an appendix of ESG data and maps our work and disclosures to a variety of ESG standards and frameworks, including the global reporting initiative United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. We're proud to continue to make progress in our programs and initiatives and I'm grateful to our teams around the globe for the work they do to support our global priorities. As always, we invite you to visit tjx.com to read our full report, and we'll continue to update the site over the next year.

轉向企業責任。我很高興與您分享，我們的 2022 年全球企業責任報告已於上個季度發布，可在 tjx.com 上獲取。本報告總結了我們在 4 個重點領域（工作場所、社區、環境可持續性和負責任的企業）內的 2022 財年舉措和進展。該報告包括 ESG 數據的附錄，並將我們的工作和披露映射到各種 ESG 標準和框架，包括全球報告倡議聯合國可持續發展目標和可持續發展會計準則委員會。我們很自豪能夠繼續在我們的計劃和倡議中取得進展，我感謝我們在全球的團隊為支持我們的全球優先事項所做的工作。一如既往，我們邀請您訪問 tjx.com 以閱讀我們的完整報告，我們將在明年繼續更新該網站。

In closing, I want to again thank all of our associates around the world for their hard work that led to our strong results in the third quarter. Our teams have put us in an excellent position in this holiday season. I am convinced that we have some of the best talent in all of retail and across all areas of the business. Further, I believe their depth of off-price knowledge and expertise is unmatched and has driven our strong execution. I truly believe our associates will continue to be a major advantage for TJX going forward. I'm convinced that the flexibility of our off-price model and our commitment to value set us apart and have allowed us to successfully operate in many different economic, retail and promotional environments.

最後，我想再次感謝我們在世界各地的所有員工，感謝他們的辛勤工作，使我們在第三季度取得了強勁的業績。我們的團隊使我們在這個假期處於有利地位。我相信我們在所有零售業和所有業務領域都擁有一些最優秀的人才。此外，我相信他們的低價知識和專業知識的深度是無與倫比的，並且推動了我們強大的執行力。我堅信我們的員工將繼續成為 TJX 未來的主要優勢。我相信，我們的折扣模式的靈活性和我們對價值的承諾使我們與眾不同，並使我們能夠在許多不同的經濟、零售和促銷環境中成功運營。

While we are impacted by macro factors, we have historically outperformed in both good and bad environments throughout our 45-plus-year history. We are confident that we can execute on our short- and long-term growth plans to build TJX into an increasingly profitable $60 billion plus revenue company.

儘管我們受到宏觀因素的影響，但在我們 45 多年的歷史中，無論環境好壞，我們都表現出色。我們有信心我們可以執行我們的短期和長期增長計劃，將 TJX 打造成一家利潤不斷增長的 600 億美元以上收入的公司。

Now I'll turn the call back to Scott to cover our full year and fourth quarter guidance. And then we'll open it up for questions. Scott?

現在我將把電話轉回斯科特，以涵蓋我們全年和第四季度的指導。然後我們將打開它提問。斯科特？

Thanks again, Ernie. I'll start with the full year. We increased our outlook for full year U.S. comp sales and now expect them to be down 1% to down 2% versus our previous guidance of down 2% to down 3%. This guidance now reflects the flow-through of our above-plan third quarter U.S. comp sales and our increased expectations for the fourth quarter. For the full year, we're now planning total TJX sales in the range of $49.3 billion to $49.5 billion. The change versus our previous guidance is due to our forecast at unfavorable foreign exchange rates will negatively impact our fourth quarter reported sales.

再次感謝，厄尼。我將從全年開始。我們上調了全年美國 comp 銷售額的預期，現在預計它們將下降 1% 至 2%，而我們之前的指引為下降 2% 至 3%。該指引現在反映了我們高於計劃的第三季度美國 comp 銷售額的流動以及我們對第四季度的預期增加。對於全年，我們現在計劃 TJX 的總銷售額在 493 億美元至 495 億美元之間。與我們之前的指導相比發生變化是由於我們預測不利的匯率將對我們第四季度報告的銷售額產生負面影響。

For full year adjusted pretax margins, we're anticipating a range of 9.8% to 9.9%, maintaining the high end of our full year margin guidance. For full year adjusted earnings per share, we now expect a range of $3.07 to $3.11 million, which is up 8% to 9% over last year's adjusted $2.85. The change to the high end versus our previous guidance is due to an incremental $0.02 negative impact from unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

對於全年調整後的稅前利潤率，我們預計範圍為 9.8% 至 9.9%，維持我們全年利潤率指導的高端。對於全年調整後每股收益，我們現在預計範圍為 3.07 美元至 311 萬美元，比去年調整後的 2.85 美元增長 8% 至 9%。與我們之前的指導相比，高端的變化是由於不利的匯率增加了 0.02 美元的負面影響。

Excluding this foreign exchange -- incremental foreign exchange impact, the high end of our adjusted EPS guidance would be unchanged. For modeling purposes, for the full year, we're currently anticipating approximately 130 basis points of incremental freight expense and 70 basis points of incremental wage costs. Also, we're assuming an adjusted tax rate of 25.3%, net interest expense of approximately $10 million and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.18 billion. We remain committed to returning cash to shareholders through our dividend and stock repurchase programs. In fiscal '23, we continue to expect to buy back $2.25 billion to $2.50 billion of TJX stock.

排除這種外匯 - 增量外匯影響，我們調整後的每股收益指導的高端將保持不變。出於建模目的，對於全年，我們目前預計增量運費約為 130 個基點，增量工資成本約為 70 個基點。此外，我們假設調整後的稅率為 25.3%，淨利息支出約為 1000 萬美元，加權平均股數約為 11.8 億股。我們仍然致力於通過股息和股票回購計劃向股東返還現金。在 23 財年，我們繼續期望回購 22.5 億美元至 25 億美元的 TJX 股票。

Now to the fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter, we are increasing our plan for U.S. comp store sales to be flat to up 1% over an outsized 13% U.S. open-only comp store sales increase last year. Next, we are planning total fourth quarter TJX sales in the range of $13.9 billion to $14.1 billion. In the fourth quarter, we're now assuming -- in the fourth quarter, we're now planning pretax margin in the range of 9.5% to 9.8%. This outlook now assumes that most of our third -- the third quarter timing of expenses -- the expense benefit will reverse out in the fourth quarter. For modeling purposes, in the fourth quarter, we're currently expecting a headwind from incremental wage costs and for freight to be flat. We're also anticipating a tax rate of 24.9%, net interest income of approximately $19 million and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.17 billion.

現在到第四季度。對於第四季度，我們將美國商店銷售額的計劃提高到 1%，而去年美國僅開放商店的銷售額增幅為 13%。接下來，我們計劃 TJX 第四季度總銷售額在 139 億美元至 141 億美元之間。在第四季度，我們現在假設——在第四季度，我們現在計劃稅前利潤率在 9.5% 到 9.8% 的範圍內。現在，這一前景假設我們的大部分第三季度——第三季度的支出時間——支出收益將在第四季度逆轉。出於建模目的，在第四季度，我們目前預計增量工資成本和運費將持平。我們還預計稅率為 24.9%，淨利息收入約為 1900 萬美元，加權平均股數約為 11.7 億股。

As a result of all of these assumptions, we're planning fourth quarter EPS of $0.85 to $0.89 per share. This outlook now assumes that most of the third quarter timing of benefit -- of expense benefits will reverse out in the fourth quarter and also reflects an expected unfavorable impact due to foreign exchange rates. In closing, I want to highlight that we are in great position operationally and financially to grow our business. We have a very strong balance sheet and continue to generate outstanding cash flow. Further, we are set up extremely well to continue making important investments to support the growth of our business while simultaneously returning significant cash to our shareholders.

基於所有這些假設，我們計劃第四季度每股收益為 0.85 美元至 0.89 美元。現在，這一展望假設第三季度的大部分收益時間——費用收益將在第四季度逆轉，並且還反映了由於匯率造成的預期不利影響。最後，我想強調的是，我們在運營和財務方面處於有利地位，可以發展我們的業務。我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，並繼續產生優秀的現金流。此外，我們的設置非常好，可以繼續進行重要投資以支持我們的業務增長，同時向我們的股東返還大量現金。

Now we're happy to take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Thanks, and now we will open it up for questions.

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）謝謝，現在我們將打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Omar Saad.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Omar Saad。

Great job in the quarter. Ernie, if you take a look at the consumer with a macro lens for your business, maybe you could talk a little bit about whether you're still seeing any resistance for the pricing that you put to your business and to the products? And also any trade-down effects showing up whether inside your business or you're pulling consumers in some other more premium channels?

本季度表現出色。 Ernie，如果你用微距鏡頭觀察消費者的業務，也許你可以談談你是否仍然看到對你對你的業務和產品的定價的任何阻力？還有任何折衷效應是否會出現在您的企業內部，或者您是否正在通過其他一些更優質的渠道吸引消費者？

Thanks, Omar. Well, on the macro lens, with regard to the pricing, we are seeing very, very little resistance. And I would say our hit rate is in the 90-plus percent in terms of success on measuring it. In fact, at one point, I think, Scott and his script talked about how our turns are essentially where they were in FY '20, which is always a barometer. So we look at pre-COVID, and we get all the way down to a SKU level. So we look at categories, we look at apartments and then we go to SKU level. And obviously, we zero in on where we've adjusted the retail. And because of what's happened around us where the retails have gone up so much significantly, we have really been so effective at it and hit extremely low resistance. So a lot more, I guess, opportunity as we move forward to keep doing because we've spot it, as you can imagine, we're also spotting places where we've gone up for retail and we can go up again.

謝謝，奧馬爾。好吧，在微距鏡頭上，關於定價，我們看到的阻力非常非常小。我想說，就衡量成功率而言，我們的命中率在 90% 以上。事實上，我認為，在某一時刻，斯科特和他的劇本談到了我們的轉折基本上與他們在 20 財年的情況相同，這始終是一個晴雨表。因此，我們著眼於 COVID 之前，我們一直深入到 SKU 級別。所以我們查看類別，查看公寓，然後進入 SKU 級別。顯然，我們在調整零售的地方歸零。而且由於我們周圍發生的事情，零售價大幅上漲，我們在這方面確實非常有效並且遇到了極低的阻力。所以，我想，在我們繼續前進的過程中，還有更多的機會，因為我們已經發現了它，正如你可以想像的那樣，我們也發現了我們已經進行零售的地方，我們可以再次上升。

So you have that dynamic, which is a little unusual because sometimes we do an intermediate price point raise. And the goods, whether it's apparel or hard lines, have gone up a couple of price points because remember, some of the inflationary hits have been more than just 2% or 3%. So there are some items that have gone up, 10% or 20%, and we've only gone up the first price point. So all in all definitely more opportunity there, if anything in terms of pricing stance. Scott?

所以你有這種動態，這有點不尋常，因為有時我們會提高中間價位。商品，無論是服裝還是硬線，價格都上漲了幾個點，因為請記住，一些通脹衝擊已經超過 2% 或 3%。所以有些商品上漲了 10% 或 20%，而我們只上漲了第一個價格點。因此，總而言之，在定價立場方面肯定有更多機會。斯科特？

Yes. Omar, Scott. The other thing, and we said this last quarter, I'll use Marmaxx as the example. In terms of our sales. And obviously, we had some outperformance at Marmaxx. It's a consistency. So asking on the trade down, not necessarily saw that we saw any. But it was just a consistency across regions, across age of stores, across locations, urban, suburban, rural, across volume. Almost any way you look at it, we saw that same level of consistency. Most of our departments improved versus the second quarter, as you would expect, as the overall numbers went up. And I think it goes back to what Ernie has been saying just the strong execution of our buying and planning on our allocation themes.

是的。奧馬爾，斯科特。另一件事，我們在上個季度說過，我將以 Marmaxx 為例。就我們的銷售而言。顯然，我們在 Marmaxx 的表現有些出色。這是一種一致性。所以詢問交易下來，不一定看到我們看到任何。但這只是跨地區、跨商店年齡、跨地點、城市、郊區、農村、跨數量的一致性。幾乎從任何角度來看，我們都看到了相同程度的一致性。正如您所預料的那樣，隨著整體數字的上升，我們的大多數部門都比第二季度有所改善。我認為這可以追溯到 Ernie 所說的只是我們對我們的分配主題的購買和計劃的強有力執行。

The interesting thing, Omar, that we're -- we try -- I tried to emphasize is in the script is the nature of our biggest, biggest strengths, and we've talked about this before, we probably don't emphasize it enough is the fact that we trade so broadly between the good, better and best in the brands, and it makes it a little by the way, to what Scott said, it makes it a little tougher to read if there a trade down or not because we're not going after a certain demographic. I mean we're trying to trade as broadly as we can. We're going after demos all different income levels, age levels. And we do not go after one sector of good, better or best goods.

有趣的是，奧馬爾，我們——我們嘗試——我試圖在劇本中強調的是我們最大、最大優勢的本質，我們之前已經談過這個，我們可能不會強調它足夠的事實是我們在品牌的好、更好和最好之間進行如此廣泛的交易，順便說一下，正如斯科特所說的那樣，如果有或沒有交易，這會讓閱讀變得有點困難因為我們不追求特定的人群。我的意思是我們正在嘗試盡可能廣泛地進行交易。我們正在尋找所有不同收入水平、年齡水平的演示。我們不追求某一領域的好、更好或最好的商品。

And so I think it's actually tough to see are you taking from one trade down area when, in fact, I think in some cases because we've had some great buys, I see a list every week at the good level, which means in some cases, we could -- we're taking good sideways, not necessarily trade down from other retailers, if that makes sense. So again, I think we're in the advantage of having a good, better, best wide offering is going to continue to serve TJX well on taking market share.

所以我認為實際上很難看出你是否從一個交易下降區域中拿走，事實上，我認為在某些情況下，因為我們有一些很好的購買，我每週都會看到一份處於良好水平的清單，這意味著在某些情況下，我們可以——如果有道理的話，我們可以很好地橫向交易，不一定會從其他零售商那裡降價交易。因此，我再次認為我們的優勢在於擁有更好、更好、最廣泛的產品將繼續為 TJX 服務，搶占市場份額。

Our next question is from Lorraine Hutchinson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Lorraine Hutchinson。

I wanted to dig in on inventory a little bit further. Are there any pockets of excess inventory, particularly in Home? And then what does your packaway capacity look like? If you were to purchase a large volume of spring product, does that preclude you from taking advantage of some of the great deals you're seeing during holiday?

我想進一步深入研究庫存。是否存在任何過剩庫存，尤其是在國內？那麼您的背包容量是什麼樣的？如果您要購買大量春季產品，這是否會妨礙您利用假期期間看到的一些超值優惠？

I'll actually prompt Ernie to actually talk first about the markdowns overall how that's been.

實際上，我會提示 Ernie 首先談談降價促銷的總體情況。

Yes. I think, Lorraine, so great question. One of the things we do, I think that is also different than what some of our counterparts, not just on off-price, counterparts across the board, is we take aggressive timely markdowns throughout the year. And with that, it becomes a -- even if we end up with, well, I guess, you'd call it, liability of inventory, something you're kind of, I think, touching on there, we clear those situations fast. And because we turn so fast, as you know, I think all of you know, we turn our home inventories extremely fast. We have a high standard on taking aggressive markdowns there probably as much as anywhere, if not more so. And so it never precludes us taking advantage of other opportunities in the market because we're always addressing any issues we have in our stores or inventory very quickly. So it really limits any excess inventory situation that we would have anywhere within the box, within its online.

是的。我想，洛林，這是一個很好的問題。我們所做的一件事，我認為這也不同於我們的一些同行，不僅僅是低價，全面的同行，我們全年採取積極及時的降價促銷。有了這個，它就變成了——即使我們最終會得到，好吧，我想，你會稱之為庫存責任，我想，觸及那裡，我們會快速清理這些情況.因為我們的周轉速度如此之快，正如你們所知，我想你們都知道，我們的家庭庫存周轉速度非常快。我們對採取激進的降價措施有很高的標準，可能與任何地方一樣多，如果不是更多的話。因此，它永遠不會阻止我們利用市場上的其他機會，因為我們總是非常迅速地解決我們在商店或庫存中遇到的任何問題。因此，它確實限制了我們在其在線盒子內任何地方的任何庫存過剩情況。

And by the way, that applies to whether it's HomeGoods or home within Marmaxx or home within winters in Canada or HomeSense in Europe, it applies to every brand. Great question, by the way, because if we manage that differently, and this is where I think it goes to the talent that we have, the seasoning and other people have a similar model of business does not mean they execute it the same and take the markdowns as aggressively as we do. And I think, again, it's another advantage.

順便說一下，這適用於 HomeGoods、Marmaxx 的家、加拿大的冬季家或歐洲的 HomeSense，它適用於每個品牌。順便問一下，這是個很好的問題，因為如果我們以不同的方式管理它，我認為這就是我們擁有的人才、調味品和其他人擁有類似業務模式的地方，並不意味著他們執行相同的事情並採取像我們一樣激進的降價促銷。我認為，這又是另一個優勢。

Yes. So talking about just the markdowns this year, we keep talking about our markdowns rate has been better all year than our fiscal '20 levels, although our markdowns have been slightly higher than what we had anticipated, but they've been built into each forecast that we give you and have largely been exactly where we thought they would end up. So no surprises there. Again, just to reiterate, we have adjusted -- most of our -- a lot of our inventory pickup has been due to getting inventories a bit earlier than we expected as the supply chain improved quicker than what we had -- when we had ordered the goods, and they just came in quicker. But we expect, again, our inventories to come in at the end of the year, we've adjusted all our open-to-buys. The receipts, well, obviously, a bit less receipts this year than last fourth quarter. And really, so by flushing that inventory down, we'll have both inventory levels where you want and great cash flow in the fourth quarter compared to both last year and even compared to fiscal '20.

是的。因此，僅談論今年的降價，我們一直在談論我們全年的降價率都好於我們 20 財年的水平，儘管我們的降價略高於我們的預期，但它們已納入每個預測中我們給你的，並且在很大程度上正是我們認為它們最終會出現的地方。所以沒有驚喜。再次重申，我們已經調整——我們的大部分——我們的很多庫存提貨是由於庫存比我們預期的要早一點，因為供應鏈的改善速度比我們訂購時更快貨物，他們來得更快。但我們再次預計，我們的庫存將在年底到來，我們已經調整了所有的開放購買。很明顯，今年的收入比去年第四季度少了一點。實際上，通過減少庫存，我們將在第四季度擁有您想要的庫存水平和良好的現金流，與去年同期相比，甚至與 20 財年相比。

Our next question is from Matthew Boss.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matthew Boss。

Congrats on a nice quarter in a tough backdrop.

祝賀在艱難的背景下有一個不錯的季度。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So Ernie, could you speak to drivers of comp improvement as the quarter progressed? And notably, I think you cited sequential acceleration in traffic. Maybe how you see Marmaxx positioned to take share in holiday? And then Scott, merchandise margin, if you exclude freight, remains materially above 2019 levels. I guess maybe if you could just help walk through what are the structural improvements in the model that you see relative to pre-pandemic?

那麼，厄尼，隨著季度的進展，你能談談薪酬改善的驅動因素嗎？值得注意的是，我認為你提到了交通的順序加速。也許您如何看待 Marmaxx 在假期中的定位？然後斯科特，如果不包括運費，商品利潤率仍大大高於 2019 年的水平。我想也許你可以幫忙看看你看到的模型相對於大流行前有哪些結構性改進？

All right. Yes. So Matt, let me go with the first couple, and then Scott will jump in with regard to some of the margin aspects. Yes, acceleration within the quarter, total sales. But I think what you're getting at is on some of the categories, we mentioned that our -- and we're very pleased with this, our apparel in general and Marmaxx outpaced the store. So that is an extremely healthy barometer for us. It also means that we are going to be driving more traffic down the road. When we do that, it's very healthy. Whenever we typically run some of our best market share gains is because the whole store is participating. And of course, last year, you had across the board, not just in TJX, a home business that was-over-indexing in most businesses, but we are very happy, particularly happy with our apparel business in Marmaxx. So when you ask what any categories help driving it, yes, apparel ironically.

好的。是的。所以馬特，讓我先談談第一對夫婦，然後斯科特會介入一些利潤方面的問題。是的，本季度內加速，總銷售額。但我認為你得到的是一些類別，我們提到我們 - 我們對此非常滿意，我們的服裝總體上和 Marmaxx 超過了商店。所以這對我們來說是一個非常健康的晴雨表。這也意味著我們將在未來推動更多的交通。當我們這樣做時，它非常健康。每當我們通常運行一些我們最好的市場份額收益是因為整個商店都參與。當然，去年，你有全面的，不僅僅是在 TJX，一家在大多數企業中指數過高的家庭企業，但我們非常高興，特別是對我們在 Marmaxx 的服裝業務感到高興。因此，當您詢問有哪些類別有助於推動它時，是的，具有諷刺意味的是，服裝。

And I don't think that is the same story with other retailers. I think you're going to hear more mixed reads as more results come out on the apparel business. Once again, I'll give you the different why do I think our apparel shines. And by the way, this -- I think we're performing better in every division there is because of the branded content, good, better, best brands. So our apparel is not nonbranded-driven. It's brand-driven, and it's across good, better and best. And that applies to whether it's our -- ladies business or our men's or our kids business. We try to go after all 3 levels and really have a branded focus, not a private label focus.

我認為其他零售商的情況不同。我認為隨著服裝業務的更多結果出現，你會聽到更多的混合讀物。再一次，我會告訴你為什麼我認為我們的服裝會發光。順便說一句，我認為我們在每個部門的表現都更好，因為品牌內容，好，更好，最好的品牌。所以我們的服裝不是非品牌驅動的。它是品牌驅動的，它是好的、更好的和最好的。這適用於我們的 - 女士業務或我們的男士或我們的兒童業務。我們嘗試追求所有 3 個級別，真正關注品牌，而不是私人標籤。

So I think that's really, really key. And I think that's why I look at the future, you're asking, I think one of your questions there was about Marmaxx, how we positioned. Open-to-buy is in great shape. And we have open-to-buy in all the areas that are some of our harder driving sales, better sales performing areas right now. And I also look at the on-order because we can see some of the -- again, we buy close to need, but we still can see our first quarter on order because as we start buying and putting goods into those buckets, so to speak, the branded content based on what's been available in the market, this applies not just to apparel. This applies to accessories or to our hardlines areas, to our tech areas. The branded content is really going to be at a new level here going forward. And a lot of that is the nature of what's been happening in the marketplace just yielding an amount of inventory across all of these brands, that is beyond what we normally see.

所以我認為這真的非常關鍵。我認為這就是我展望未來的原因，你問的是，我認為你的問題之一是關於 Marmaxx，我們如何定位。開放購買狀態良好。我們在所有領域都有開放購買，這些領域是我們目前更難推動銷售、銷售表現更好的領域。而且我還查看訂單，因為我們可以看到一些 - 同樣，我們購買接近需要，但我們仍然可以看到我們的第一季度訂單，因為當我們開始購買並將商品放入這些桶時，所以可以說，品牌內容基於市場上已有的內容，這不僅適用於服裝。這適用於配件或我們的硬線領域，我們的技術領域。品牌內容真的會在未來達到一個新的水平。其中很多是市場上正在發生的事情的本質，只是產生了所有這些品牌的大量庫存，這超出了我們通常看到的範圍。

I'll let Scott now talk to the margin.

我現在讓 Scott 在邊緣發言。

Yes. Well, I'm not the expert. I'm actually why we're buying better. So I'll let Ernie say that.

是的。好吧，我不是專家。我實際上是為什麼我們買得更好。所以我會讓厄尼這麼說。

Yes, I didn't mean for you, too.

是的，我也不是為了你。

Yes. So a bit on the technical side there. I think -- when we look back since the beginning of the year and what we did in the last -- in August is that our retails have largely, as we've said for the last couple of quarters, has been unchanged. So not because we're raising retails anymore or anything less than what we thought it's really -- they basically what we thought has happened. The cost increases have been have come through. They haven't been changing dramatically, and our retails have raised up slightly above the cost, but haven't -- we haven't done that any more than what we have thought.

是的。所以在技術方面有點。我認為 - 當我們回顧自今年年初以來以及我們去年所做的事情時 - 8 月份我們的零售業基本上沒有變化，正如我們在過去幾個季度所說的那樣。所以不是因為我們在提高零售額，或者比我們想像的要少——它們基本上是我們認為已經發生的事情。成本增加已經實現。它們並沒有發生顯著變化，我們的零售價略高於成本，但沒有——我們所做的並沒有超出我們的想像。

What has changed over the last couple of quarters and when we changed our forecast last quarter is that the -- we're buying better. The marketplace, as we said, was absolutely loaded and we've actually been buying better. Some of this -- and again, is -- the freight is largely coming in where we want a little timing between the third and fourth quarter. Markdowns came in slightly higher, but again on our forecast. But it's largely we're actually buying better than what we thought not a retail increase more than what we thought. So -- and again, we would expect the same thing in the fourth quarter to have a strong merchandise margin by -- and with better overall mark-on. So that's about all I have to say on merchandise margin.

過去幾個季度發生的變化以及我們上個季度改變預測時的情況是——我們買得更好。正如我們所說，市場絕對是滿載而我們實際上一直在買更好的東西。其中一些 - 再次是 - 貨運主要來自我們希望在第三季度和第四季度之間的一些時間。降價幅度略高，但再次符合我們的預測。但這在很大程度上是我們實際上買得比我們想像的要好，而不是零售增長比我們想像的要多。因此——我們再次預計，第四季度同樣的事情將有強勁的商品利潤率——以及更好的整體加價。這就是我要說的關於商品保證金的全部內容。

Yes, I'll just jump in, Matt. I think Scott's saying it really it's been a two-pronged effort in terms of buying the goods better and retailing. The retailing continues. But I think the new news is that we are buying better based on the market environment than I think we had even anticipated back a couple of months ago. Although that's where I think anything you'd read about the availability in that, creating more inventory out there for models of business like us to take advantage of that, that part is turning out to be true. So...

是的，我馬上加入，馬特。我認為斯科特說的是，在更好地購買商品和零售方面，這確實是一個雙管齊下的努力。零售仍在繼續。但我認為新消息是，根據市場環境，我們的購買情況比我認為幾個月前的預期要好。儘管這就是我認為你會讀到的關於可用性的任何內容，為像我們這樣的業務模型創造更多庫存以利用它，但事實證明那部分是真實的。所以...

Yes. And we've also been helped out as we thought it would because we saw the apparel getting better as we move through the back half of the year. And last year, it was all about having a significantly higher home contribution. We're kind of back to where we were from the apparel home contribution at the end of this third quarter where we were back in fiscal '20. So it's almost been a 6%, 7% change in the apparel home contribution, which certainly has benefited us a bit on just from a mix point of view on the average retail.

是的。我們也得到了我們預期的幫助，因為我們看到服裝在今年下半年變得更好。去年，這一切都是為了擁有更高的家庭貢獻。我們有點回到了第三季度末我們回到 20 財年的服裝家居貢獻。因此，服裝家居貢獻幾乎有 6%、7% 的變化，從平均零售的混合角度來看，這肯定讓我們受益匪淺。

Our next question now is from Brooke Roach.

我們現在的下一個問題來自布魯克·羅奇。

Ernie, I wanted to follow up on a few of the high-level guardrails that you provided into next year and calendar 2024. As you contemplate that low single-digit comp sales increase that you've adjusted next year, are there any puts and takes that we should be contemplating by major banner? And do you expect this to be led by a sequential increase in traffic? Or will this be a balanced traffic and ticket driver as a result of ongoing pricing strategy and better branded availability in the stores?

Ernie，我想跟進你為明年和 2024 日曆年提供的一些高級護欄。當你考慮到你明年調整的低個位數的 comp 銷售增長時，是否有任何看跌期權和採取我們應該考慮的主要旗幟？您是否認為這會導致流量連續增加？還是由於持續的定價策略和商店中更好的品牌可用性，這將成為平衡的流量和票務驅動因素？

Awesome, those are good high-level questions. I think the first one on the single-digit comp. Hard to -- first of all, hard for us to call today on how much will be from traffic or ticket. We're being very conservative on our traffic expectations based on what's going on, but I think it's probably going to be a combination. But it is a little early for us to kind of step out and make a call on that. And your first part of the question is, I think, how much does it vary by, does it vary by banner. And right now, our initial thinking is it's in a pretty narrow bandwidth by banner, they're all going to be planned fairly similarly within a couple of points, I would say. This is not different than this past year. And the volatility of what's around us is making it a little challenging for us to kind of Scott and his team, myself with all the SEVPs who try to figure out what's our best guess.

太棒了，這些都是很好的高級問題。我認為第一個是個位數的補償。很難——首先，我們今天很難預測交通或票務會帶來多少。根據正在發生的事情，我們對我們的流量預期非常保守，但我認為這可能是一個組合。但我們現在就走出去並就此做出呼籲還為時過早。你的問題的第一部分是，我認為，它有多少變化，它是否因橫幅而異。而現在，我們最初的想法是它在一個非常窄的帶寬中通過橫幅，它們都將在幾個點內被非常相似地計劃，我會說。這與去年沒有什麼不同。我們周圍事物的波動性讓我們很難對 Scott 和他的團隊、我自己以及所有試圖找出我們最好的猜測的 SEVP 產生一些挑戰。

But who could forecast some of the things that have happened even this year, where sales are not where we had projected. Having said that, we've been able to execute in a different manner and pull off some things that I think strategically are going to benefit us on the long term. The flexibility of our model, but the team that we have executing that flex. We've executed -- I believe the team has executed really well. So again, I have to be a little vague on that because we're not sure. The only thing I can tell you is right now, our initial thinking on our banners is they'll be in a pretty narrow bandwidth all planned fairly similarly.

但誰能預測今年發生的一些事情，銷售額沒有達到我們的預期。話雖如此，我們已經能夠以不同的方式執行並完成一些我認為在戰略上將使我們長期受益的事情。我們模型的靈活性，但我們執行該靈活性的團隊。我們執行了——我相信團隊執行得非常好。再次重申，我必須對此含糊其詞，因為我們不確定。我現在唯一能告訴你的是，我們對橫幅的最初想法是它們將在一個非常窄的帶寬內，所有的計劃都非常相似。

Our next question from Paul lejuez.

我們的下一個問題來自 Paul lejuez。

I just want to go back to the mark-on benefit that you spoke about. You said that it helped in 3Q. I think it's been helping you. But maybe, Scott, can you frame the benefit that you saw in 3Q versus prior quarters? Is it also how are you thinking about mark-on in 4Q relative to what you've been seeing? And then also just curious about the expenses, just the nature of the expenses that shifted out of 3Q and into 4Q, what were those, if you could just give any detail there?

我只想回到您所說的加價收益。你說它在第三季度有所幫助。我認為它一直在幫助你。但也許，斯科特，你能描述一下你在第三季度看到的與前幾個季度相比的好處嗎？相對於你所看到的，你是否也如何看待第四季度的加價？然後也只是對費用感到好奇，只是從第三季度轉移到第四季度的費用的性質，那些是什麼，如果你能在那裡提供任何細節？

Yes. We're not going into the detail just due to the timing of multitude of items, some related to inventory flow and the related costs and/or expenses or how they get capitalized between 1 quarter and another. So that's really all to say on that. In terms of the margin, if you look at it on a 3-year basis on our mark-on similar levels of, it's largely going to be driven by strong mark-on, whether it's on a 3-year basis or a 2-year basis, and nothing really much more to add there. It can't break it down because there's tens of thousands of items. So it's a combination of some retail and better buying and it's hard to parse out exactly what goes to which, but it's a combination of the both. Certainly, again, as we've talked about over the course of the last 6, 7 quarters having a slightly higher average retail helps on the expense lines, whether it's in the freight stores in DC and that's a good chunk of some of the benefit we've been getting as well.

是的。由於大量項目的時間安排，我們不會詳細介紹，其中一些與庫存流量和相關成本和/或費用有關，或者它們如何在 1 個季度和另一個季度之間資本化。因此，這就是全部要說的。就利潤率而言，如果你在我們類似水平的標記上以 3 年為基礎來看，它在很大程度上將受到強勁標記的推動，無論是 3 年還是 2-以年為基礎，沒有什麼可以補充的了。它無法分解它，因為它有數以萬計的項目。所以它是一些零售和更好的購買的結合，很難準確地分析出是什麼，但它是兩者的結合。當然，正如我們在過去 6、7 個季度中談到的那樣，平均零售額略高有助於費用線，無論是在 DC 的貨運商店，這都是一些好處的很大一部分我們也得到了。

Got it. If I could just pivot one on the direction, Ernie. Just there's some concerns -- just macro concerns out there over in Europe. I'm curious how you feel the business is positioned over there to take advantage of maybe consumers looking for value, maybe what you're seeing over there from a promotional perspective and competitive positioning of the business.

知道了。如果我能在方向上轉動一個，厄尼。只是存在一些擔憂——只是歐洲的宏觀擔憂。我很好奇你如何看待企業在那裡的定位，以利用可能正在尋找價值的消費者，也許是你從促銷的角度和企業的競爭定位所看到的。

Yes, Paul, great question. We talk about this all the time. And the environment there is at a different level of challenging. From here, it's even more serious, and you have the market drops by retailer there or even more significant than they are here. Our sales have been below our expectations there. But what we do is we look at our sales performance against the retail market, and we have been trending basically 500 to 1,000 basis points ahead of the competition there. So we don't like our -- the way the consumer is getting hit there and affecting us. But relatively speaking, we are actually gaining significant market share there.

是的，保羅，好問題。我們一直在談論這個。那裡的環境具有不同程度的挑戰性。從這裡開始，情況更加嚴重，那裡的零售商的市場下跌甚至比這裡的還要嚴重。我們在那裡的銷售額一直低於我們的預期。但我們所做的是對照零售市場查看我們的銷售業績，我們的趨勢基本上比那裡的競爭對手高出 500 到 1,000 個基點。所以我們不喜歡我們——消費者在那裡受到打擊並影響我們的方式。但相對而言，我們實際上在那裡獲得了顯著的市場份額。

So our outlook there is over the next year or 2 to continue to gain more market share and take advantage as things level off there. And we're staying extremely liquid and demanding the same type of looking for the same type of healthy terms and model execution that we do here. Being a little patient with the environment. We can't control the traffic, but we can measure there and we do the footfall going into our stores, and that has been off, not the conversion of when they're in our stores. So the good news is when the customer is in our store, they're very happy with the mix they find, and they are buying at a conversion rate very similar to before. So that's not the issue. The issue is footfall is off. And -- but it's off to less for us than it is for the competition. So Scott, I...

因此，我們的前景是在未來一兩年內繼續獲得更多的市場份額，並隨著那裡的情況趨於平穩而利用優勢。而且我們保持極高的流動性，並要求與我們在這裡做的相同類型的尋找相同類型的健康條款和模型執行。對環境有點耐心。我們無法控制客流量，但我們可以在那裡進行測量，我們可以測量進入我們商店的客流量，而且已經關閉，而不是他們在我們商店的時間的轉換。所以好消息是當客戶在我們的商店時，他們對他們找到的組合非常滿意，並且他們購買的轉化率與以前非常相似。所以這不是問題。問題是客流量減少了。而且 - 但它對我們來說比競爭要少。所以斯科特，我...

I mean the other thing is, given the environment over there, it's even more difficult for most -- for many retailers. And it's certainly -- and Ernie can jump in after me. But we're certainly adding as many new vendors as we have in the past and probably getting our fair share of good, better and even more better and best over there in terms of the branded quality.

我的意思是，另一件事是，考慮到那裡的環境，對於大多數零售商來說，這更加困難。這當然是——厄尼可以跟著我跳進去。但我們肯定會像過去一樣增加新的供應商，並且可能在品牌質量方面獲得我們公平份額的好，更好甚至更好和最好的。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

So I think that's the thing. And given the environment, we've talked about this before, we're still taking advantage of when -- of both relocation opportunities at good rates and obviously getting lower rates when we -- our leases come. So we're minimizing some of the costs taking advantage of those aspects that we can.

所以我認為就是這樣。考慮到環境，我們之前已經討論過這個問題，我們仍然在利用何時 - 以良好的利率提供搬遷機會，並且當我們 - 我們的租約到來時顯然會獲得較低的利率。因此，我們正在利用我們可以利用的這些方面來最大限度地減少一些成本。

Yes, Paul, Scott was bringing up a good point there. The level of what you do have in a situation like this is there's some -- I was talking about the good, better, best core go after all 3, we've had a disproportionate amount of better and best goods over there and from some brands and sizable deals that normally we wouldn't have seen or open some vendors we wouldn't have opened as recently. So that all bodes well. That's our -- truly our best form of marketing and our best form of capturing a customer for the long term. So again, I think we'll just stay patient and we'll weather -- and we have to execute the way we always do. And we'll mitigate any margins range or anything like that because we're keeping the business clean.

是的，保羅，斯科特提出了一個很好的觀點。在這種情況下，你所擁有的水平是有一些——我說的是好的、更好的、最好的核心，畢竟 3，我們在那里和一些地方有不成比例的更好和最好的商品通常我們不會看到的品牌和大規模交易，或者打開一些我們最近不會打開的供應商。所以一切都是好兆頭。那是我們 - 真正是我們最好的營銷形式和我們長期吸引客戶的最佳形式。因此，我再次重申，我認為我們會保持耐心，我們會度過難關——我們必須按照我們一貫的方式執行。我們將降低任何利潤率範圍或類似的東西，因為我們保持業務清潔。

Our next question is from Mark Altschwager.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Altschwager。

I guess first, Scott, with respect to freight, just any further color on what you're seeing in terms of the inbound versus trends in domestic freight expenses? And how you're thinking about the recapture opportunity next year? And then Ernie, you've emphasized the gifting position quite a bit over the last few years. Can you talk about some of the learnings from recent years that you've incorporated into your holiday assortment and marketing plans this year that support your confidence?

我想首先，斯科特，關於運費，關於你在入境與國內運費趨勢方面看到的任何進一步顏色？您如何看待明年的奪回機會？然後是厄尼，在過去的幾年裡，你一直在強調天賦的地位。您能否談談近年來您在今年的假期分類和營銷計劃中所學到的一些經驗教訓，這些經驗教訓支持了您的信心？

Sure. Yes, we're certainly not going to go into giving specific guidance at this point in time. But there's been largely no major changes to what we thought would happen at the back half of this year and consequently, what we thought would happen next year. But when we're giving the long-range guidance out for '24 and '25 going to that 10.6%, it contemplated over the course of those 2 years, some freight benefit. And we still are assuming that due, whether it's less demerge or some of the ocean freight or some of the other factors and over 2 years, switching some of it to more intermodal than we currently have, we do see a freight as a tailwind, but we're not going into the details, certainly give that more on the -- when we give more detailed guidance on the February call.

當然。是的，我們目前當然不會提供具體指導。但我們認為今年下半年會發生的事情基本上沒有重大變化，因此，我們認為明年會發生的事情也沒有發生重大變化。但是，當我們為 24 年和 25 年的 10.6% 提供長期指導時，它考慮了在那兩年的過程中，一些運費收益。而且我們仍然假設由於，無論是較少的分拆還是一些海運或其他一些因素，在 2 年多的時間裡，將其中一些轉換為比我們目前更多的多式聯運，我們確實將貨運視為順風，但我們不會深入細節，當我們在 2 月的電話會議上提供更詳細的指導時，當然會提供更多信息。

But yes, we definitely -- it's built in, none of the factors have really changed from what we thought over the last. So yes, so a tailwind over the next 2 years on that. And obviously, as I think we stated earlier, the freight will go down significantly from the third quarter impact over last year or over '20 versus the fourth quarter.

但是，是的，我們肯定 - 它是內置的，與我們上次的想法相比，沒有任何因素真正改變。所以是的，所以在接下來的兩年裡順風順水。顯然，正如我認為我們之前所說的那樣，運費將比去年第三季度的影響顯著下降，或者與第四季度相比超過 20 年。

Mark. So talking about our gifting position, yes, we've talked about that every year for the last few years. What's really need, I think, for us on what we've done in every banner and every geography we're in, as we have become a cooler -- we've talked about our entertainment and all that, but we have been cooler for gifting because now we're hitting even younger audiences that are very comfortable buying gifts from us.

標記。所以說到我們的天賦位置，是的，過去幾年我們每年都在談論這個。我認為，對於我們來說，真正需要的是我們在每個橫幅和我們所處的每個地區所做的事情，因為我們已經變得更酷了——我們已經談論了我們的娛樂等等，但我們已經變得更酷了因為現在我們正在吸引更年輕的觀眾，他們很樂意從我們這裡購買禮物。

I think the big thing that's happened over the last handful of years, and we have really accelerated during COVID is, a, our in-store experience from our -- and I mentioned this in the script, let's start with our store ops teams and our field organization really does an amazing job on setting up our stores for gift-giving well beyond what we did 6 or 7 years ago. And I give them a lot of credit on how we present giftable tables and features and knowing where to put certain items toward the register and really catering to impulse gift items. And they do it with across the board with good, better and best goods. And they are just phenomenal at setting up the study. And that's whether it's in a Marmaxx store or a HomeGoods store, a Sierra, you name it, Winners, T.K. Maxx, every division is all over the gift-giving presentation and execution from a store level.

我認為過去幾年發生的一件大事，我們在 COVID 期間真正加速的是，a，我們的店內體驗——我在腳本中提到了這一點，讓我們從我們的商店運營團隊開始，我們的現場組織在為禮品贈送設立商店方面確實做得非常出色，遠遠超過我們 6 或 7 年前所做的。在我們如何展示可送禮的桌子和功能，以及知道將某些物品放在收銀機的什麼地方以及真正迎合衝動的禮品方面，我給了他們很多信任。他們用好的、更好的和最好的商品全面地做到這一點。他們在設置研究方面非常出色。這就是無論是在 Marmaxx 商店還是 HomeGoods 商店，Sierra，你能想到的，Winners，T.K. Maxx，每個部門都從商店層面開始進行送禮展示和執行。

Secondly, we are now more branded than ever. So if you think about -- if you want to give a gift and this applies to any demo on any age group, any income level, you ideally are going to lean towards giving a branded gift. It doesn't feel good to give a private label gift or a gift that's just kind of generic. While we become -- and then this holiday, we will be more branded than ever, I think that's going to bode well for our gift business as we get even closer to Christmas.

其次，我們現在比以往任何時候都更加品牌化。因此，如果您考慮 - 如果您想贈送禮物，並且這適用於任何年齡段、任何收入水平的任何演示，那麼您理想情況下會傾向於贈送品牌禮物。送私人標籤的禮物或普通的禮物感覺不太好。當我們成為 - 然後這個假期，我們將比以往任何時候都更有品牌，我認為隨著我們離聖誕節越來越近，這對我們的禮品業務來說是個好兆頭。

And then the third aspect that we've tried to do every year in terms of gifting is a lot of gifting is done -- significant amount is done closer to Christmas every year. It moves back a little bit. And so we, last year, ran out of a little bit of steam right towards Christmas. So we think one of our fourth quarter opportunities this year is to have fresh flowing branded goods that are gift-oriented coming in later, which we are significantly going after this year, which I think is going to bode well for our Q4 sales, especially in the last week or 2 right before Christmas.

然後，我們每年都嘗試在送禮方面做的第三個方面是完成了很多送禮——每年臨近聖誕節都會送出大量禮物。它向後移動了一點。因此，去年，我們在聖誕節前就失去了一點動力。因此，我們認為今年第四季度的機會之一是晚些時候推出以禮品為導向的新鮮流動品牌商品，今年我們將大力推進，我認為這對我們第四季度的銷售來說是個好兆頭，尤其是在聖誕節前的最後一周或兩週內。

So I think that touches on why -- again, 2 of those reasons are really why we've been doing better every year at it. This last one, I think, is really about this year, last year comparison. But I intend for us every year to continue to get better and grab more market share at holiday. Even though years ago, we were not thought of as a gift destination. I think now we're absolutely becoming that. So thank you for the question, Mark.

所以我認為這涉及到為什麼 - 同樣，其中兩個原因確實是我們每年都做得更好的原因。最後一個，我想，真的是關於今年，去年的比較。但我打算讓我們每年都繼續變得更好，並在假期搶占更多的市場份額。即使在幾年前，我們也不被認為是送禮目的地。我認為現在我們絕對正在成為那樣。謝謝你的問題，馬克。

Our next question is from Michael Binetti.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Binetti。

Congrats on a nice quarter. And Scott, I'll have to add my congrats to you here on the next steps. I think you said -- just a near-term one, I think you said on the 3-year rate was increasing throughout the third quarter. Strong exit rate. The guidance looks like it's taking a little bit of a deceleration in that 3-year rate. Maybe just a comment on what you're seeing on November versus if that's from your expectation rest of the quarter, any source of conservatism that you want to hold back? And then Scott, a little math on the consensus model looks like expectations are for about a 2% to 3% comp in that combined U.S. business in the first half next year. You looked at a number of things. You're comfortable with/excited about it. I just want to make sure you think that's reasonable.

祝賀一個不錯的季度。斯科特，我必須在接下來的步驟中向你表示祝賀。我想你說過 - 只是一個近期的，我想你說過 3 年期利率在整個第三季度都在增加。退出率高。該指導看起來在 3 年期利率上有所放緩。也許只是對你在 11 月看到的情況發表評論，如果這是你對本季度剩餘時間的預期，你想要阻止的任何保守主義來源？然後 Scott，對共識模型進行一些數學計算，看起來預計明年上半年美國合併後的業務收入約為 2% 至 3%。你看了很多東西。你對此感到滿意/興奮。我只是想確保你認為這是合理的。

Yes. We haven't given any guidance on how we're breaking out getting to the 10.6% from next year or the year after. So we haven't -- we don't have any details to both share at this point or have on the breakout by quarter for next year. In terms of this -- the fourth quarter, the start to the fourth quarter, your question that overall U.S. comps have improved over the last day or so. But as there was some unseasonable weather early on, however, this has been factored into our increased Q4 U.S. comp guidance. So I guess, again, just all factored into what we're -- what we've contemplated.

是的。我們沒有就如何從明年或後年突破到 10.6% 提供任何指導。所以我們還沒有——我們目前沒有任何細節可以分享，也沒有關於明年季度突破的任何細節。就此而言——第四季度，第四季度的開始，你的問題是美國的整體業績在過去一天左右有所改善。但是，由於早期出現了一些不合時宜的天氣，這已被納入我們增加的第四季度美國 comp 指導中。所以我想，再一次，所有因素都考慮到了我們的想法——我們所考慮的。

Makes sense. And maybe I could follow up with one just a little bit further out. Based on the buys that you commented on, I'm wondering how long you think you're going to have how long do you have visibility to having these great branded assortments? Do you have visibility via your packaway into this great good, better, best assortment of branded goods into fall of next year at this point?

說得通。也許我可以跟進一個更遠的地方。根據您評論的購買，我想知道您認為擁有這些優質品牌商品的知名度會持續多久？此時此刻，您是否可以通過您的背包了解明年秋季的這種優質、更好、最好的品牌商品分類？

Yes, Michael, so the good, better, best is -- that type of content has been there prior to the recent surge of availability. And I would think that will continue to the level that it's at here, which is unusually flooded market across well more than we could ever buy. It's hard to have visibility really as to the long term. The only thing I would say, as I said in the script, is for 40-something years, we've always had more availability out there than we can buy. So I don't see that changing.

是的，邁克爾，所以好的、更好的、最好的是——這種類型的內容在最近的可用性激增之前就已經存在了。而且我認為這將繼續達到目前的水平，這是異常充斥的市場，遠遠超過我們所能買到的。從長遠來看，很難真正看到。正如我在劇本中所說，我唯一要說的是，40 多年來，我們總是擁有比我們能買到的更多的可用性。所以我認為這不會改變。

And I'll give you -- and even if it leans, here's the other thing, and I didn't get to mention this earlier. Even if the availability out there comes down a little, one thing that has happened during COVID, as we've seen over recently as for our merchants and our vendors, we have become even more important to them than ever before. So we always like to think we're the first call, I think from a different perspective, we have just become without a doubt, the most important -- for the branded market I'm talking, we have become even more important as a relationship for them to liquidate their goods and to know that if they get aggressive on some of their cuts ahead, which, again, most of those cuts are imports that we're going to be there for them. So we -- I think they know that even more so now when our relationships are there better than ever.

我會給你 - 即使它傾斜，這是另一件事，我之前沒有提到這一點。即使那裡的可用性有所下降，但在 COVID 期間發生了一件事，正如我們最近看到的那樣，對於我們的商家和供應商來說，我們對他們來說比以往任何時候都更加重要。所以我們總是認為我們是第一個電話，我認為從不同的角度來看，我們毫無疑問地成為最重要的——對於我所說的品牌市場，我們已經變得更加重要關係讓他們清算他們的貨物，並知道如果他們在未來的一些削減上變得激進，同樣，這些削減中的大部分都是進口的，我們將在那里為他們服務。所以我們——我認為當我們的關係比以往任何時候都好時，他們現在更清楚這一點。

And Michael, the packaway, were you asking about the level of packaway?

邁克爾，背包客，你問的是背包客的級別嗎？

I'm just wondering if you already know that you've got good packaway for -- in goods that can be deployed in the fall season next year if the content and the amount of branded goods that you're very excited about clearly today? You have in-store today visibility -- in packaway today visibility that you'll be able to have those goods (inaudible) next fall.

我只是想知道你是否已經知道你有很好的包裝 - 在明年秋季可以部署的商品中，如果今天你非常興奮的品牌商品的內容和數量很清楚？你今天在店內有可見性——在今天的可見性中，你將能夠在明年秋天擁有這些商品（聽不清）。

Yes, we're not at a high level of packaway at this point in time. We're probably -- even are slightly lower than what we would have been. So it's more on the com on what we will or could buy for the rest of the year...

是的，我們目前還沒有處於高水平的打包狀態。我們可能 - 甚至比我們本來的水平略低。因此，更多關於今年剩餘時間我們將購買或可以購買的東西的信息......

I'll jump in there on that one. What could happen because of the availability is, typically, we're still right now is we're just in the middle of November, you're in this time, Michael, when actually you're using the goods. So you don't -- and we don't -- you kind of wait for, you buy through a lot of these current goods. And as you go through it, as you get towards maybe December, you start saying, okay, there's goods in that category from that vendor left, I am now going to look at packing those away. My gut would say to me there's going to be more of that later than there was prior. So as Scott said, we're not -- right now, we don't see that. Just based on what's out there, however, I would guess there will be more packaways coming out of this Christmas that we would packaway for next fall than we did last year.

我會跳進去那個。由於可用性可能會發生什麼，通常情況下，我們現在還只是在 11 月中旬，邁克爾，你在這個時候，實際上你正在使用這些商品。所以你不會——我們也不會——你有點等待，你購買了很多這些當前的商品。當你經歷它時，當你接近 12 月時，你開始說，好吧，那個供應商留下了那個類別的商品，我現在要考慮把它們打包。我的直覺會告訴我，以後會有更多這樣的事情發生。所以正如斯科特所說，我們不是 - 現在，我們沒有看到這一點。然而，根據那裡的情況，我猜今年聖誕節會有更多的包裹，我們將在明年秋天打包，而不是去年。

Our next question from Chuck Grom.

Chuck Grom 的下一個問題。

Congrats on a good quarter. Typically, consumers trade down during tough economic times, but that's clearly not the case for you yet. And I guess I'm curious why you think that's different today? And I guess when you look ahead, when do you think you may start to see that? Walmart has called it out, the dollar stores have started to call it out, but you and your peers have not. So just curious if you think it's on the come? And I guess if you have any sense of when you think it might start to see it based on history in the business?

祝賀一個好的季度。通常，消費者會在經濟困難時期進行低價交易，但顯然您還不是這樣。我想我很好奇為什麼你認為今天有所不同？我想當你展望未來時，你認為你什麼時候可以開始看到它？沃爾瑪已經大聲疾呼，一元店已經開始大聲疾呼，但您和您的同行還沒有。所以很好奇你是否認為它即將到來？而且我猜你是否知道你認為什麼時候可以根據業務歷史開始看到它？

Yes. Chuck, I think it's not -- I guess it's hard for us to read if it's trade down or if we're just getting it across the board. So that -- so I think what we were trying to say before is we can't read if it's trade down because again, part of that goes to we buy across good, better -- we're buying -- we're trying to service almost every customer. So what happens is, I think we get trade sideways.

是的。查克，我認為這不是——我想我們很難理解它是降價還是我們只是全面了解它。所以 - 所以我認為我們之前想說的是我們無法解讀它是否在下跌，因為再次，其中一部分用於我們購買好的，更好的 - 我們正在購買 - 我們正在嘗試服務幾乎每一位客戶。所以發生的事情是，我認為我們的貿易橫盤整理。

Right now, we're gaining market share from across the board. And so that's -- I wouldn't say we're not getting some trade down. I would say that's just a piece out of many of the trade overs, I guess you would call it. It's too hard where we can't seem to read -- and Scott even mentioned I think if you look region by region, where you would look at some of the stores that might be closing -- might have created the trade down, we're not seeing any significant difference by region, which is telling us we're kind of getting a little everywhere. Scott?

現在，我們正在全面獲得市場份額。所以那是——我不會說我們沒有進行一些交易。我會說這只是許多交易中的一部分，我猜你會這樣稱呼它。在我們似乎無法閱讀的地方太難了——斯科特甚至提到，我認為如果你逐個地區看，你會看到一些可能正在關閉的商店——可能導致交易下降，我們”我們沒有看到地區之間有任何顯著差異，這告訴我們我們在任何地方都有所收穫。斯科特？

Yes, if you go back again, history, 14, 15 years during the last recession, it was a little more pronounced at the higher income demographics where you were -- given the stock market impact of people's 401(k) and overall, it was more pronounced in those demographics. So it's more noticeable. Again, I think Ernie said it right. It's -- it's so across the board and so consistent, it's just -- we just may be getting it more across than just from the top end.

是的，如果你再次回顧歷史，在上次經濟衰退期間的 14、15 年，它在你所在的高收入人口統計數據中更為明顯——考慮到人們 401(k) 計劃對股市的影響以及總體而言，它在這些人口統計數據中更為明顯。所以它更引人注目。再一次，我認為厄尼說得對。它是 - 它是如此全面且如此一致，它只是 - 我們可能只是從高端獲得更多。

I think we have time for one more question.

我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

The final question for the day will be from Dana Telsey.

當天的最後一個問題將來自 Dana Telsey。

Congratulations, John, and congratulations, Scott. Can you expand a little bit more on the HomeGoods business exactly what you're seeing there and how you see that path of improvement coming from? And what you saw in home versus apparel? I mean, Ernie, you mentioned that apparel over and goes back to the normalized index. But what should we be expecting from home and margin opportunity go forward?

祝賀你，約翰，也祝賀你，斯科特。您能否在 HomeGoods 業務上進一步擴展您所看到的內容以及您如何看待改進路徑？你在家居與服裝中看到了什麼？我的意思是，厄尼，你提到服裝結束並回到標準化指數。但是我們應該對國內和利潤機會有什麼期待呢？

So for sales and margin, Dana, is where you're getting at going forward. Our outlook that we start to next year because we're up against enormous increases this year as was everybody. The good news is from what I've seen across the board, yes, we're dropping in our home business, but not as much as some of the other retailers that -- so we feel -- again, we look at that barometer. We're hoping that next year, we get to a home sales trend that's more back to, as I said earlier, back to those low single-digit comps is what we would hope.

因此，對於銷售額和利潤率，Dana 是您前進的方向。我們對明年開始的展望是因為我們今年和每個人一樣都面臨著巨大的增長。好消息是我所看到的全面情況，是的，我們的家庭業務正在下降，但沒有其他一些零售商那麼多——所以我們覺得——再次，我們看看那個晴雨表.我們希望明年，我們的房屋銷售趨勢會更回到，正如我之前所說的那樣，回到那些低個位數的組合是我們所希望的。

Margin-wise, there should be some upside because of what's happening with freight becoming a bit of a tailwind. And as you know, the home business was hit significantly by freight more so than most of the other businesses. I do feel that we wouldn't have an outpacing home business. It probably starts to track toward the rest of our business. Again, tough to forecast with what's going on and all the volatility around us in the environment. But that's kind of our outlook right now. The beauty of our business is we play a hand to mouth close in. And if we're not seeing that, we'll adjust.

就利潤率而言，應該有一些上行空間，因為貨運正在成為順風。如您所知，與大多數其他企業相比，家庭企業受到貨運的打擊更大。我確實覺得我們不會有超越家庭的業務。它可能開始追踪我們的其他業務。同樣，很難預測正在發生的事情以及我們周圍環境中的所有波動。但這就是我們現在的看法。我們業務的美妙之處在於我們近距離接觸。如果我們看不到這一點，我們會進行調整。

We are bullish on our accessories and apparel business still moving forward because it looks like there's consistent opportunity as well as there's some newness there. And newness always bodes well in our business as far as generating a reason to buy an impulse, which our business has so much built on impulse SKUs and categories and -- so again, we just feel good across the board. Good question.

我們看好我們的配飾和服裝業務仍在向前發展，因為它看起來有持續的機會，也有一些新鮮事物。就產生購買衝動的理由而言，新事物總是在我們的業務中預示著好兆頭，我們的業務在很大程度上建立在衝動的 SKU 和類別之上，因此我們再次感覺良好。好問題。

I think that was our last question for today. I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. We will be updating you again on our fourth quarter earnings call in February. So thank you, everybody.

我認為這是我們今天的最後一個問題。我要感謝大家今天加入我們。我們將在 2 月份的第四季度財報電話會議上再次向您通報最新情況。所以謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may all disconnect. Thank you very much for participating.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。你們都可以斷開連接。非常感謝您的參與。