Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Hanover Insurance Group's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Joe, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note that this event is being recorded today. I would now like to turn the conference over to Oksana Lukasheva. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加漢諾威保險集團 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫喬，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指示）另請注意，今天正在記錄此事件。現在我想將會議交給奧克薩娜·盧卡舍娃。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us for our quarterly conference call. We will begin today's call with prepared remarks from Jack Roche, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jeff Farber, our Chief Financial Officer. Available to answer your questions after our prepared remarks are Dick Lavey, President of Agency Markets; and Bryan Salvatore, President of Specialty Lines.

謝謝您，接線生。早上好，感謝您參加我們的季度電話會議。今天的電話會議將以總裁兼執行長 Jack Roche 和財務長 Jeff Farber 的準備好的發言開始。在我們發表準備好的發言後，代理市場總裁 Dick Lavey 將可以回答您的問題；以及特種線總裁 Bryan Salvatore。

Before I turn the call over to Jack, let me note that our earnings press release, financial supplement and a complete slide presentation for today's call are available in the Investors section of our website at www.hanover.com. After the presentation, we will answer questions in the Q&A session.

在我將電話轉給傑克之前，請允許我指出，我們的收益新聞稿、財務補充和今天電話會議的完整幻燈片演示可在我們網站 www.hanover.com 的投資者部分找到。演示結束後，我們將在問答環節中解答問題。

Our prepared remarks and responses to your questions today, other than statement of historical fact include forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can relate to, among other things, our outlook and guidance for 2025, economic conditions and related effects, including economic and social inflation, potential recessionary impacts, tariffs, as well as other risks and uncertainties such as severe weather and catastrophes that could affect the company's performance and or cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

我們今天對您提出的問題的準備好的評論和答复，除了歷史事實陳述之外，還包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明可能涉及我們對 2025 年的展望和指導、經濟狀況和相關影響，包括經濟和社會通膨、潛在的衰退影響、關稅以及其他風險和不確定因素，例如可能影響公司業績或導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的惡劣天氣和災難。

We caution you with respect to reliance on forward-looking statements, and in this respect, refer you to the forward-looking statements section in our press release, the presentation deck in our filings with the SEC. Today's discussion will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures such as operating income and accident year loss and combined ratios, excluding catastrophes, among others.

我們提醒您不要依賴前瞻性陳述，在這方面，請您參閱我們新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述部分，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中簡報。今天的討論也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如營業收入、事故年度損失和綜合比率（不包括災難）等。

A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP measure on a historical basis can be found in the press release the slide presentation or the financial supplement, which are posted on our website, as I mentioned earlier. With those comments, I will turn the call over to Jack.

正如我之前提到的，這些非 GAAP 財務指標與歷史基礎上最接近的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在新聞稿、幻燈片簡報或財務補充中找到，這些指標都發佈在我們的網站上。有了這些評論，我將把電話轉給傑克。

Thank you, Oksana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our exceptional fourth quarter performance marked the culmination of a very strong year for our company. Across the organization, our team executed remarkably well. We successfully implemented our cat mitigation actions. We delivered on our margin recapture plans, we continue to improve our claims response and delivery, and we successfully executed on targeted portfolio management and innovation initiatives, positioning the organization to deliver strong, profitable growth going forward.

謝謝你，奧克薩娜。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。我們在第四季度的出色表現標誌著我們公司今年的強勁表現達到了頂峰。在整個組織中，我們的團隊表現非常出色。我們成功實施了災難緩解措施。我們完成了保證金恢復計劃，繼續改善索賠回應和交付，並成功執行了有針對性的投資組合管理和創新計劃，使組織能夠在未來實現強勁、盈利的成長。

Our company is stronger today than ever before, poised to capitalize on some of the most promising growth opportunities in the marketplace. For the quarter, we generated record operating return on equity of 24.4%. We improved our ex-cat combined ratio by 2.7 points year-over-year to 87.5% and we grew net written premiums by 7.4%, a meaningful acceleration from recent quarters.

我們的公司如今比以往任何時候都更加強大，準備好利用市場上一些最有前景的成長機會。本季度，我們實現了創紀錄的 24.4% 的營業股本回報率。我們的除巨災保險外綜合成本率年增了 2.7 個百分點，達到 87.5%，淨承保保費增長了 7.4%，較最近幾季有顯著加快。

On a full year basis, we delivered an operating ROE of 15.8%, our highest on record. We increased net written premiums to north of $6 billion. Excluding cats, we grew our operating income by 29%, demonstrating the inherent strength of our underlying earnings power. And notably, prior year development was favorable across all major business segments, further evidencing our commitment to prudent reserving practices.

從全年來看，我們的營業淨資產收益率達到 15.8%，創歷史新高。我們的淨承保保費增至 60 億美元以上。除了貓之外，我們的營業收入成長了29％，證明我們潛在的獲利能力的內在實力。值得注意的是，去年各主要業務部門的發展均表現良好，進一步證明了我們致力於審慎的準備金實踐的承諾。

Throughout the year, we took a number of proactive steps to further mitigate our catastrophe exposure, increasing pricing, modifying terms and conditions, and making adjustments to our geographic mix. To provide some additional context, over the last 2 years, we increased cumulative written renewal pricing by approximately 47% in homeowners and by 29% in core commercial property.

在這一年中，我們採取了一系列積極措施來進一步降低災難風險，包括提高價格、修改條款和條件以及調整我們的地理結構。為了提供一些額外的背景信息，在過去的兩年中，我們將房主的累計書面續約價格提高了約 47%，將核心商業地產的累計書面續約價格提高了 29%。

And over the past 12 months, we more evenly spread our risk geographically. We strategically reduced our Personal Lines policy count in the Midwest by 10.2% and implemented new or enhanced deductibles across the majority of our personal lines book. These actions had a positive effect on our 2024 performance, and they are expected to benefit our results in 2025 and in the years ahead.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們的風險在地理上更加均勻地分散。我們策略性地將中西部地區的個人險保單數量減少了 10.2%，並對大多數個人險保單實施了新的或提高的免賠額。這些舉措對我們 2024 年的業績產生了正面影響，預計將有利於我們 2025 年及未來幾年的業績。

Also, as part of our ongoing commitment to property risk management, we have successfully integrated sensor technology across targeted portions of our core commercial book of business to mitigate water and freeze losses. To date, this initiative has prevented millions of dollars in potential losses.

此外，作為我們對財產風險管理持續承諾的一部分，我們已成功將感測器技術整合到我們核心商業業務的目標部分，以減輕水和凍害損失。迄今為止，這項舉措已避免了數百萬美元的潛在損失。

Turning now towards segment accomplishments, starting with Specialty, which performed exceptionally well in the quarter and the year. Today, our $1.4 billion net written premium specialty portfolio consists of 9 businesses and 18 distinct product offerings.

現在來談談各部門的成就，首先是專業部門，該部門在本季和全年的表現都非常出色。如今，我們 14 億美元的淨承保保費專業組合由 9 項業務和 18 種不同的產品組成。

We set ourselves apart in the marketplace by providing select distribution across retail and wholesale channels, diversified product offerings and well-coordinated service at both the distributor and customer level. As expected, we accelerated our top line growth to 8.8% in the fourth quarter after substantially completing the focused profitability improvement actions implemented over the past 18 months.

我們透過在零售和批發通路提供精選分銷、多樣化產品供應以及在經銷商和客戶層面提供協調良好的服務，在市場上脫穎而出。正如預期的那樣，在基本完成過去 18 個月實施的重點獲利能力提升行動後，我們在第四季度將營收成長率加速至 8.8%。

In addition, a number of our most profitable lines, E&S, HSI, Healthcare and Marine achieved double-digit growth in the quarter through targeted investments in talent and technology and completing specific underwriting actions, we have positioned specialty to accelerate its growth trajectory in 2025 relative to the full year 2024.

此外，透過對人才和技術的有針對性的投資以及完成特定的承保行動，我們利潤最高的一些產品線，即 E&S、HSI、醫療保健和海事，在本季度實現了兩位數的增長，我們已將專業保險定位為在 2025 年加速其相對於 2024 年全年的增長軌跡。

In E&S, our new policy quote and issue platform is enabling our underwriting teams to prioritize and more efficiently respond to submissions for agent and wholesale partners. This platform is one of the many ways we are building on our competitive advantage in the consolidating agency market. This dynamic environment requires continued operating model enhancements to yield process efficiencies.

在 E&S，我們新的保單報價和發行平台使我們的核保團隊能夠優先處理代理商和批發合作夥伴的提交，並更有效地回應這些提交。這個平台是我們在整合代理市場中建立競爭優勢的眾多方式之一。這種動態環境需要持續改善營運模式以提高流程效率。

In marine, talent, reputation, and service are setting us apart from the competition. We're confident we will continue to strengthen our market position, advancing our brand among agents as a leading go-to carrier in this business.

在海洋領域，人才、信譽和服務使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。我們有信心繼續加強我們的市場地位，在代理商中提升我們的品牌，使其成為該業務領域的領先承運商。

Across our specialty portfolio, we also continue to see profitable growth and new business opportunities in surety and our professional and executive lines. Additionally, we will lean harder on some newer opportunities including smaller sized specialty accounts, wholesale distribution as well as a targeted appetite expansion in attractive classes in marine and surety, among others.

在我們的專業產品組合中，我們也繼續看到保證金以及專業和執行線的獲利成長和新業務機會。此外，我們將更加努力地抓住一些新的機會，包括規模較小的專業帳戶、批發分銷以及在海運和擔保等有吸引力的類別中針對性地擴大需求。

Focusing now on our core commercial segment. We delivered strong performance in the quarter and stable margins throughout the year, underscoring the effectiveness of our disciplined underwriting and middle-market property actions.

現在專注於我們的核心商業領域。我們在本季表現強勁，全年利潤率穩定，凸顯了我們嚴謹的承保和中端市場財產保險行動的有效性。

We remain committed to balancing thoughtful growth with profitability in this business while proactively addressing accounts that don't meet our refined underwriting standards. Premium growth in the quarter was driven by standout performance with small commercial premiums up 9.3% and middle market premiums up 5%, reflecting significant sequential momentum. Small Commercial remains a real growth engine for us delivering strong performance in Q4 with notable new business momentum.

我們將繼續致力於平衡該業務的深思熟慮的成長與獲利能力，同時積極處理不符合我們精細承保標準的帳戶。本季保費成長主要得益於優異的表現，小型商業保費上漲 9.3%，中型市場保費上漲 5%，反映出顯著的連續成長動能。小型商業仍然是我們真正的成長引擎，第四季業績表現強勁，新業務發展勢頭顯著。

Submission increased approximately 25% in the quarter, a testament to the great transactional success and effectiveness of our TAP sales quote and issue platform, strong market penetration and excellent execution. We are leveraging technology and third-party data to drive new business efforts, supported by our talented and experienced team, which is the strongest it's ever been.

本季提交量增加了約25％，證明了我們的TAP銷售報價和發行平台的巨大交易成功和有效性、強大的市場滲透力和出色的執行力。我們正在利用技術和第三方數據來推動新業務發展，並由我們有史以來最強大的才華橫溢、經驗豐富的團隊提供支援。

In Middle Market, the vast majority of our underwriting adjustments are now behind us, which enabled elevated growth in the fourth quarter as expected. Our improved mix has enhanced our portfolio, particularly in property as we continue to retain our most profitable business, setting the stage for strong growth and profitability in 2025.

在中型市場，我們絕大多數的承保調整現已完成，這使得第四季的成長如預期般加快。我們改進後的業務組合增強了我們的投資組合，特別是在房地產領域，因為我們繼續保留了最賺錢的業務，為 2025 年的強勁增長和盈利奠定了基礎。

Turning to Personal Lines. This team delivered an outstanding turnaround performance in 2024, demonstrating strong market awareness, agility, and determination. During the year, we implemented critical and industry-leading changes in terms and conditions, significantly increased pricing and meaningfully shifted geographic mix to a more balanced portfolio while still growing premiums by over 4% for the year.

轉向個人線路。該團隊在 2024 年取得了出色的轉虧為盈業績，展現出強大的市場意識、敏捷性和決心。這一年，我們實施了業界領先的關鍵條款和條件變更、大幅提高了價格，並顯著調整了地域組合，以實現更加均衡的投資組合，同時全年保費仍增長了 4% 以上。

Our margin improvement actions marked the segment's sixth consecutive quarter of ex-cat loss ratio improvement. We are exiting the year with personal lines price increases above 14% for the account, which moderated slightly from the third quarter, but still high relative to historic levels and current loss trend.

我們的利潤率改善措施標誌著該部門連續第六個季度實現除巨災損失率的改善。今年，我們個人帳戶險種價格漲幅超過 14%，較第三季略有回落，但相對於歷史水準和當前虧損趨勢仍然較高。

The changes we have made to terms and conditions in our homeowner’s line are benefiting our CAT results as you would expect. And our updated all peril deductibles, which we implemented across most of our states, have had a positive impact on our ex-cat performance as well. As higher deductibles reduced smaller claims, we are benefiting from lower frequency on our ex cat loss ratio.

正如您所期望的，我們對房主險條款與條件所做的修改正在有利於我們的 CAT 結果。我們在大多數州實施的最新一切危險免賠額也對我們的非受災人員保險業績產生了積極影響。由於較高的免賠額減少了小額索賠，我們受益於較低的意外損失率。

The swift improvement in Personal Lines profitability is enabling us to focus on accelerating growth in additional geographic regions, regions that demonstrate strong potential for sustained profitability such as Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

個人險獲利能力的快速提升使我們能夠專注於加速其他地理區域的成長，這些地區表現出持續獲利的強大潛力，例如威斯康辛州、馬裡蘭州、賓州和田納西州。

As planned, we observed a divergence in net written premium growth across regions, with Midwestern states posting an increase of 3.2% in the quarter compared with combined growth of 10.1% for all other states. We are actively pursuing PIF growth in targeted regions to enhance diversification. The greater diversification across our book is enabling us to spread our earnings more broadly than ever, helping to mitigate our exposure to risk and volatility.

正如預期的那樣，我們觀察到不同地區的淨承保保費成長存在差異，中西部各州本季成長 3.2%，而其他州的總成長率為 10.1%。我們正在積極尋求目標地區的 PIF 成長，以增強多樣化。我們帳簿的多元化程度不斷提高，使我們能夠比以往更廣泛地分配收益，從而幫助我們降低風險和波動性。

We're proud of the outstanding work our Personal Lines team did in 2024, and we are very excited about the profitable growth potential for our market-leading account-focused franchise in 2025 and beyond. Before I conclude my remarks, I'd like to share some broader perspective about our go-forward strategy and our business model.

我們為個人險團隊在 2024 年所做的出色工作感到自豪，我們對 2025 年及以後市場領先的以帳戶為中心的特許經營的盈利增長潛力感到非常興奮。在結束我的演講之前，我想分享一些關於我們未來策略和商業模式的更廣泛的觀點。

Our strategy remains highly effective supported by a strong operating model and continued technological advancements. In today's rapidly evolving marketplace, ease of use, speed to answer and exceptional customer service are not just desirable, they are essential. With this in mind, we continue to make substantial investments in innovation and the development of proven effective tools, tools that enhance our value proposition in the market improving efficiency and analytical precision.

在強大的營運模式和持續的技術進步的支持下，我們的策略仍然非常有效。在當今快速發展的市場中，易於使用、響應速度快和卓越的客戶服務不僅是可取的，而且是必不可少的。考慮到這一點，我們繼續對創新和開發經過驗證的有效工具進行大量投資，這些工具可以增強我們在市場上的價值主張，提高效率和分析精確度。

In 2024, we continued to make progress in tech innovation, complementing capabilities we introduced previously. As a result, today, we have one of the most effective quote buying and rating platforms in the market, TAP sales with versions in our personal, small commercial and relevant specialty segments.

2024年，我們在技術創新方面繼續取得進展，補充了我們先前引入的功能。因此，今天，我們擁有市場上最有效的報價購買和評級平台之一，即 TAP 銷售，其版本涵蓋個人、小型商業和相關專業領域。

We have various application program interfaces that allow us to seamlessly plug into agents’ platforms. And we have digital workflow automation that allows for simplification of the submission process eliminating the need for manual intervention for submission ingestion and triaging, reducing response times significantly.

我們擁有各種應用程式接口，可以讓我們無縫地連接代理商的平台。我們擁有數位化工作流程自動化，可以簡化提交流程，無需手動幹預提交的提取和分類，這大大縮短了回應時間。

Our updated claims system implemented over the past few years has now been built out with additional data elements from third-party sources. Our ongoing investments in data and analytics have produced advanced capabilities like our enhanced jumper severity escalation models which improve our ability to predict and manage claims with escalating severity, enabling timely interventions and better outcomes.

我們在過去幾年實施的更新索賠系統現在已經包含了來自第三方來源的附加資料元素。我們對數據和分析的持續投資產生了先進的功能，例如我們增強的跳線嚴重程度升級模型，這提高了我們預測和管理不斷升級的嚴重程度索賠的能力，從而能夠及時幹預並取得更好的結果。

Additionally, we are now leveraging virtual appraisals of claims on approximately 80% of our auto physical damage claims, streamlining settlement processes and improving customer satisfaction. We expect other recently added capabilities such as real-time text notifications and status tracking to further enhance efficiency and customer experience.

此外，我們現在對大約 80% 的汽車實體損壞索賠進行虛擬評估，簡化了解決流程並提高了客戶滿意度。我們期待其他最近添加的功能（例如即時文字通知和狀態追蹤）進一步提高效率和客戶體驗。

Looking ahead, we are expanding our AI initiatives such as data extraction, triage models and model training oversight to drive further efficiencies and automation. While we continue to pilot innovative AI tools to enhance underwriting decision-making processes, we are prioritizing capabilities that drive enhanced employee productivity and improved ease of use for agents and customers while we maintain rigorous outsight of model development.

展望未來，我們正在擴展我們的人工智慧計劃，例如資料提取、分類模型和模型訓練監督，以進一步提高效率和自動化。在我們持續試行創新的人工智慧工具來增強核保決策流程的同時，我們優先考慮那些能夠提高員工生產力、提高代理商和客戶易用性的功能，同時我們對模型開發保持嚴格的監督。

Risk mitigation, governance and compliance are essential to our strategic technology and AI initiatives, ensuring our innovations are secure, ethical and compliant with regulations. As we close out 2024, we are very proud of the performance we delivered for the year. Our diversified franchise with its specialized products and capabilities demonstrated exceptional resilience and growth potential.

風險緩解、治理和合規性對於我們的策略技術和人工智慧計畫至關重要，可確保我們的創新安全、合乎道德且符合法規。隨著 2024 年的結束，我們對這一年的表現感到非常自豪。我們的多元化特許經營及其專業的產品和能力表現出卓越的彈性和成長潛力。

With our talented and agile team, strong agency partnerships and innovative technological advancements, we are confident in our ability to continue to capitalize on the many opportunities we see in the market and to drive strong, sustainable, profitable results going forward.

憑藉我們才華橫溢、敏捷的團隊、強大的代理商合作夥伴關係和創新的技術進步，我們相信我們有能力繼續利用我們在市場上看到的眾多機會，並在未來推動強勁、可持續、盈利的業績。

Now is our time to take advantage of the opportunities we have created capitalizing our nimble and agile culture and business model, key differentiators for our company. As we look forward, we are extremely optimistic and we have every confidence we will continue to excel in the year ahead.

現在是我們利用所創造的機會的時候了，利用我們靈活的文化和商業模式，這是我們公司的關鍵差異化因素。展望未來，我們充滿樂觀，並有信心在新的一年中繼續取得優異成績。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給傑夫。

Thank you, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Our strong execution in 2024 is demonstrated by our record performance. On a consolidated basis, we reported excellent net and operating income per share for the fourth quarter and the full year with each beating our previous records. We delivered a combined ratio of 94.8% for the full year, our best since 2020.

謝謝你，傑克，大家早安。我們創紀錄的業績證明了我們在 2024 年的強勁執行力。從綜合數據來看，我們報告的第四季度和全年每股淨利潤和營業利潤均表現出色，並且均超過了先前的記錄。我們全年的綜合比率為 94.8%，這是自 2020 年以來最好的成績。

Excluding catastrophes, our combined ratio was 88.4%, beating our original guidance handily and a 2.9-point improvement compared to 2023. Our fourth quarter overall combined rate 89.2% set a new quarterly record and marked a 5-point improvement over the comparable period last year.

除去巨災因素，我們的綜合比率為 88.4%，輕鬆超過了我們最初的預期，與 2023 年相比提高了 2.9 個百分點。我們第四季的整體綜合利率為 89.2%，創下了新的季度紀錄，比去年同期提高了 5 個百分點。

Quarterly top line growth was 7.4% with a return to normalcy, as we indicated. Consolidated full year top line growth was 4.7% in line with our 2024 mid-single-digit growth guidance. With the vast majority of our targeted underwriting actions in middle market and specialty behind us, we anticipate improved growth across these segments in 2025.

正如我們所指出的，季度營收成長率為 7.4%，恢復正常。全年綜合營收成長率為 4.7%，符合我們對 2024 年中等個位數成長的預期。由於我們在中階市場和專業市場中已開展了絕大多數有針對性的承保行動，我們預計 2025 年這些領域的成長將會提高。

Cat losses for the year were 6.4%, including [0.7] points of favorable prior year cat development. Our approach to setting catastrophe loads is prudent as we select higher on the probability curve. Prior year development was favorable across each segment in both the fourth quarter and for the year, liability loss experience and trends were largely within expectations and we're continuing to exercise prudence in our picks given the uncertain environment.

全年 Cat 損失為 6.4%，其中包括前一年 Cat 發展勢頭良好的 [0.7] 個百分點。我們設定災難負荷的方法是謹慎的，因為我們選擇機率曲線較高。去年第四季和全年各部門的發展均良好，責任損失經驗和趨勢基本上符合預期，鑑於不確定的環境，我們將繼續謹慎選擇。

Looking at favorability in more detail, specialty was favorable by 3.5 and 7 points for the year and quarter, respectively. Favorability was widespread in several areas notably driven by consistently lower-than-expected losses in our professional and executive liability claims made business. Core commercial favorable development was 80 basis points for the year, and 50 basis points in Q4, with favorability in each major line of business driven primarily by property coverages as we maintain our prudence around liability trends.

更詳細地看，專業性在年度和季度中的好感度分別上升了 3.5 個百分點和 7 個百分點。多個領域普遍表現出良好勢頭，尤其是由於我們的專業和高階主管責任索賠業務的損失持續低於預期。核心商業有利發展在全年實現了 80 個基點，在第四季度實現了 50 個基點，由於我們對責任趨勢保持審慎態度，各主要業務線的有利發展主要受到財產保險範圍的推動。

We are still benefiting from lower liability frequency relative to long-term historical trends and from generally favorable industry and size mix. Personal Lines development was slightly favorable for the quarter and year. We are observing favorability in auto collision coverages and in homeowners, and we continue to monitor the book for elevated trends in personal umbrella while increasing rates significantly.

我們仍然受益於相對於長期歷史趨勢較低的負債頻率以及普遍有利的行業和規模組合。本季及本年度個人險業務發展略有改善。我們觀察到汽車碰撞險和房屋保險的受歡迎程度不斷上升，我們將繼續監控個人傘險的上升趨勢，同時大幅提高費率。

We believe our strong balance sheet positions us well, which reduced frequency provides a buffer against the legal abuse environment in the industry and we continue to be confident in our ability to sustain our performance and navigate these trends effectively. Our expense ratio was 31.3% for the year and above our expectations.

我們相信，我們強勁的資產負債表為我們帶來了良好的地位，降低的頻率為我們抵禦行業中的法律濫用環境提供了緩衝，我們繼續對我們維持業績和有效駕馭這些趨勢的能力充滿信心。我們全年的費用率為 31.3%，高於我們的預期。

It is clearly a temporary spike and due to higher variable expenses, such as employee and agency compensation, which are reflective of much better-than-expected performance. The earnings beat relative to our original expectations was especially significant in the fourth quarter, triggering a true-up for the full year in the quarter.

這顯然是暫時的飆升，是由於員工和代理機構薪酬等變動費用增加所致，這反映出業績遠好於預期。第四季的獲利超出我們最初的預期尤其顯著，引發了該季度全年獲利的上漲。

Additionally, we continued to make investments in our future profitable growth, particularly in the specialty segment and believe our investments in talent and technology will allow us to further capitalize on profitable growth opportunities. We remain fully committed to our long-term 20 basis point per annum improvement trend and we have clear visibility to a 30.5% expense ratio in 2025.

此外，我們繼續對未來的獲利成長進行投資，特別是在專業領域，並相信我們對人才和技術的投資將使我們進一步利用獲利成長機會。我們仍然完全致力於每年 20 個基點的長期改善趨勢，我們清楚地看到 2025 年的費用率將達到 30.5%。

Our financial plans for staff compensation get reset each year to account for future performance targets. Improving underwriting performance is factored into our agent profit expectations by planning for it every year with some continuing adjustments. We're committed to managing our expenses effectively and appropriately. We are very pleased with the delivery of a much lower combined ratio than we guided to despite the temporary expense ratio elevation.

我們每年都會重新設定員工薪資的財務計劃，以適應未來的績效目標。承保業績的提高已納入我們代理商利潤預期，我們每年都會對此進行規劃並持續進行調整。我們致力於有效且適當地管理我們的開支。儘管費用率暫時上升，但我們對綜合成本率遠低於預期感到非常滿意。

Turning to our underlying underwriting loss performance. We surpassed our expectations for both the quarter and the year. Our consolidated underlying loss ratio improved 3.3 points to 56.9% in Q4 and 2.9 points to 58.2% for the full year, helped by impressive improvement in Personal Lines, better-than-expected results in specialty and stable loss performance in core commercial.

談到我們的基礎承保損失表現。我們超出了本季和全年的預期。由於個人險業務的顯著改善、專業險業務的業績好於預期以及核心商業險的損失表現穩定，我們的綜合基礎損失率在第四季度改善了 3.3 個百分點，至 56.9%，全年改善了 2.9 個百分點，至 58.2%。

Diving into Personal Lines, our combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, improved 7.9 points to 85.9% for the fourth quarter and 7.8 points to 88.9% for the full year. The improvement was driven by the benefits of earned pricing in both personal auto and homeowners along with lower frequency, which enhanced our margins.

深入個人險方面，我們的綜合成本率（不包括巨災成本）在第四季度提高了 7.9 個百分點，至 85.9%，全年提高了 7.8 個百分點，至 88.9%。這項改善主要得益於個人汽車和房主獲得的定價收益以及較低的頻率，從而提高了我們的利潤率。

Our personal auto ex-cat current accident loss ratio was better than planned for both the quarter and the year, a result of healthy price increases earning in and a continuing benefit from industry-wide reduced frequency. We expect some additional improvement in 2025 as written rate earns in above loss trend, albeit to a lower degree.

由於價格健康上漲和全行業事故頻率降低的持續效益，我們個人汽車除意外事故外的本季和全年事故損失率均優於計畫。我們預計 2025 年會進一步改善，因為承保利率收益趨勢高於虧損趨勢，儘管程度較低。

Turning to homeowners. We delivered outstanding ex-cat current accident year loss ratio improvement for the year, down 6.7 points and for the quarter, down 12 points. Higher earned rates were certainly a major driver of the improvement. We believe we have also benefited from a frequency reduction in small-sized claims driven by a gradual introduction of increased deductibles throughout the year.

轉向房主。我們實現了出色的非重大事故本年度損失率改善，全年損失率下降了 6.7 個百分點，本季損失率下降了 12 個百分點。更高的收益率無疑是推動利率改善的主要動力。我們相信，由於全年逐步提高免賠額，小額索賠的頻率也下降，這也使我們受益匪淺。

Finally, there was a slight impact from lower-than-usual weather-related claims, primarily in the fourth quarter. This said, we continue to closely monitor activity on our PL umbrella line in order to stay on top of evolving trends. We are achieving healthy price increases up approximately 20% in the fourth quarter. We expect the personal lines loss ratio to further improve from the 2024 actual as increased pricing continues to earn in, and we benefit from terms and condition changes more fully particularly in home.

最後，與天氣相關的索賠低於正常水平產生了輕微影響，主要發生在第四季度。儘管如此，我們仍將繼續密切關注 PL 傘狀線上的活動，以便掌握不斷變化的趨勢。我們在第四季度實現了價格健康上漲，上漲約 20%。我們預計，隨著定價不斷上漲，個人險損失率將從 2024 年的實際水準進一步改善，並且我們將從條款和條件的變化中受益更多，尤其是在國內。

Personal Lines top line growth was solid in the fourth quarter at 6.6% and 4.3% for the year. Net written premium growth was impacted by our deliberate strategy to reduce PIF count in select states to manage our cat exposure, particularly in the Midwest.

個人險業務營收第四季穩健成長 6.6%，全年成長 4.3%。我們採取了謹慎的策略，減少特定州（尤其是在中西部地區）的 PI​​F 數量，以管理我們的巨災風險，從而影響了淨承保保費的成長。

Importantly, we continue to achieve strong retention in our homeowner’s line, ending the fourth quarter with retention of 83.2%, which demonstrates the market's ability to absorb continued price increases. Personal Lines pricing is expected to remain healthy in 2025, and as such, the segment remains on track to return to target profitability on an earned basis this year.

重要的是，我們在房主產品線中繼續實現強勁的保留率，第四季末的保留率達到 83.2%，這表明市場有能力吸收持續的價格上漲。個人險定價預計在 2025 年將保持健康水平，因此，該部門今年仍有望按盈利基礎恢復到目標盈利水平。

In core commercial, our current accident year ex cat loss ratio was 58.9% in the quarter and 57.8% for the full year. The loss ratio for the year was approximately 0.5 point higher than in 2023, primarily driven by prudently adding IBNR reserves in commercial umbrella.

在核心商業領域，我們本季的意外年度扣除巨災損失率為 58.9%，全年為 57.8%。全年損失率比 2023 年高出約 0.5 個百分點，主要原因是審慎在商業保護傘中增加 IBNR 儲備。

Core property continued to perform well maintaining the profitability levels achieved in 2023. In liability lines, our business continued to benefit from lower than historical frequency because of geographic and industry mix choices we have made in the past. And our actuarial estimates for core liability lines remain consistent with our expectations.

核心資產持續表現良好，維持了 2023 年實現的獲利水準。在責任險方面，由於我們過去所做的地理和行業組合選擇，我們的業務繼續受益於低於歷史頻率。我們對核心責任險的精算估計與我們的預期保持一致。

However, management increased our view of current accident year loss picks due to uncertainty around claim severities. Overall, we are confident that our approach is thoughtful and prudent and is in keeping with our long-standing track record of maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our prudent view is driving increased middle-market umbrella rates of approximately 14% in the year and double-digit pricing increases in core commercial auto. We expect our liability pricing to accelerate in 2025.

然而，由於索賠嚴重程度的不確定性，管理層提高了對當前事故年度損失選擇的預期。總體而言，我們相信我們的方法是深思熟慮和審慎的，並且符合我們長期維持強勁資產負債表的記錄。我們的謹慎觀點是推動中階市場綜合保險費率今年上漲約 14%，核心商用車價格將達到兩位數上漲。我們預計我們的負債定價將在 2025 年加速。

And we expect to see some improvement to the core commercial loss ratio in 2025 driven by property. Core commercial net written premium growth was 4.2% for the year, reflecting the profitability improvement actions in middle market previously discussed by Jack. In the fourth quarter, growth accelerated to 7.5%.

我們預計，在房地產的推動下，2025年核心商業損失率將有所改善。核心商業淨承保保費全年增長率為4.2％，反映了傑克之前討論過的中端市場盈利能力改善舉措。第四季度，成長率加速至7.5%。

Moving on to specialty. This business continued to deliver exceptionally strong results. The specialty current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophes was 49.6% for 2024 and 48.4% in the quarter, coming in better than our expectations and favorable to our low 50s target for this business. All subsegments performed very well with notable outperformance in marine, specialty industrial and E&S.

轉向專業領域。該業務持續取得異常強勁的業績。不包括災難在內的專業本期事故年度損失率在 2024 年為 49.6%，本季為 48.4%，優於我們的預期，並且有利於我們為該業務設定的 50% 以下的目標。所有子領域均表現優異，其中海洋、特種工業和 E&S 領域表現尤為出色。

Specialty net written premium growth surged sequentially to 8.8% in the fourth quarter following the substantial completion of our portfolio adjustments to enhance profitability. Looking ahead, we expect continued strong growth, positioning specialty as a significant driver enterprise top line expansion in 2025 and beyond.

為了提高獲利能力，我們基本上完成了投資組合調整，第四季度專業險淨承保保費成長率環比飆升至 8.8%。展望未來，我們預計將持續保持強勁成長，並將專業化定位為2025年及以後企業營收擴張的重要驅動力。

Turning to reinsurance. On January 1, we successfully completed our multiline casualty reinsurance renewal process, securing a similar structure to ring agreements. We are comfortable with contracted rates, which increased as we expected, driven by industry casualty pressures. We remain pleased with our robust casualty reinsurance structure attaching at $2.5 million which is one of the drivers of our resilience against the contemporary liability trends facing the industry.

轉向再保險。1 月 1 日，我們成功完成了多險種再保險續保流程，確保了與環形協議類似的結構。我們對合約費率感到滿意，由於行業傷亡壓力的推動，合約費率如我們預期的那樣上漲。我們對我們強大的意外傷害再保險結構感到滿意，其附加價值為 250 萬美元，這是我們抵禦行業面臨的當代責任趨勢的驅動力之一。

Moving on to investment performance. Net investment income increased 23.4% in the quarter and 12.2% for the year to $372.6 million, ahead of our original guidance for the year of a 10% increase. Growth was propelled by strong fixed maturity income from higher earned yields and partially offset by lower investment partnership income throughout the year.

繼續討論投資績效。本季淨投資收入成長 23.4%，全年成長 12.2%，達到 3.726 億美元，高於我們最初預期的 10% 的年度增幅。成長主要得益於較高的已獲收益率帶來的強勁固定到期收入，但被全年較低的投資夥伴收入部分抵消。

Excluding partnerships, net estimate income was up approximately 16.5% for the year in 2024. We've also benefited from some strategic repositioning within our portfolio. As in the prior quarter, we continued to divest a portion of a lower yielding fixed income securities in consideration of expiring tax carryback capacity against gains from 2021 and 2022.

不包括合夥企業，2024 年的淨預計收入將成長約 16.5%。我們的投資組合中的一些策略重新定位也使我們受益匪淺。與上一季一樣，考慮到 2021 年和 2022 年收益的稅收結轉能力到期，我們繼續剝離部分收益較低的固定收益證券。

From an asset allocation perspective, throughout the year, we reduced exposure to CMBS with reinvestment of proceeds into other high-quality subsectors of securitized products, including ABS and RMBS. We also extended duration of our portfolio from 3.9% at year-end 2023 to 4.4 at year-end 2024. Overall, we maintained our weighted average rating of our fixed maturity portfolio at A plus with 95% of the portfolio being investment grade.

從資產配置角度來看，我們全年減少了對 CMBS 的曝險，將收益再投資於其他高品質的證券化產品子行業，包括 ABS 和 RMBS。我們也將投資組合的期限從 2023 年底的 3.9% 延長至 2024 年底的 4.4%。整體而言，我們維持固定期限投資組合的加權平均評等為 A+，其中 95% 為投資等級。

Against the backdrop of a volatile economic and interest rate environment, tight credit spreads and expectation of somewhat lower short-term rates toward the end of '25, we believe we are well positioned. We are pleased with our investment portfolio allocation and yields. We are also equally excited with strong underwriting profitability that helps to boost our cash flows, enhance our asset base and position us to achieve meaningfully higher net investment income in the future.

在經濟和利率環境動盪、信貸利差收緊以及 25 年底短期利率略有下降的預期下，我們相信我們已做好準備。我們對我們的投資組合分配和收益感到滿意。我們同樣對強勁的承保獲利能力感到興奮，這有助於提高我們的現金流，增強我們的資產基礎，並使我們在未來實現更高的淨投資收益。

Moving on to our equity and capital position. Book value increased 14.9% throughout 2024 ending the year at 79.18%, driven by earnings as well as a slight reduction of the unrealized loss position. Excluding unrealized book value increased 10.4% for the full year, driven by very robust earnings. In December, we raised our quarterly dividend by 5.9% to $0.90 per share, marking 20 consecutive years of annual increases.

繼續討論我們的股權和資本狀況。受獲利以及未實現虧損頭寸略有減少的推動，帳面價值在 2024 年全年增長了 14.9%，截至年底達到 79.18%。受強勁獲利的推動，不包括未實現帳面價值，全年成長了 10.4%。12 月份，我們將季度股息提高 5.9% 至每股 0.90 美元，這是連續 20 年實現年度成長。

This milestone underscores our commitment to shareholder value and our confidence in the company's future and financial strength. We reentered the market in Q4, repurchasing 170,000 shares in the quarter. We see repurchases as a good tool for enhancing shareholder value and expect to engage in repurchases in 2025. Our dedication to capital management priorities and responsible stewardship remains unwavering.

這一里程碑彰顯了我們對股東價值的承諾以及對公司未來和財務實力的信心。我們在第四季重新進入市場，當季回購了 17 萬股。我們認為回購是提升股東價值的良好工具，並預計在 2025 年進行回購。我們始終堅定不移地致力於資本管理重點和負責任的管理。

Turning to our annual guidance for 2025. We expect overall consolidated net written premium growth to be in the 6% to 7% range. Specialty and small commercial growth are expected to exceed this range while personal lines and middle market growth are projected to be below it. We expect net investment income to increase by 12% to 14% from 2024.

談到我們的2025年年度指導。我們預計整體合併淨承保保費成長率將在 6% 至 7% 之間。預計專業和小型商業保險的成長將超過這一範圍，而個人保險和中型市場的成長預計將低於此範圍。我們預計淨投資收益將從 2024 年起成長 12% 至 14%。

Our expense ratio expected to return to its traditional pacing and decreased to 30.5%. We have confidence given the reasons outlined earlier. The combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, should be in the range of 88.5% to 89.5% which reflects an anticipated improvement from the 90% to 91% guide we provided a year ago. And we expect an effective tax rate to approximate the statutory rate, which is 21%. Our cat load for the year is 6.5%, and our first quarter cat load is 6%.

我們的費用率預計將恢復到傳統水準並下降至30.5%。鑑於前面概述的理由，我們有信心。不包括災難在內的綜合比率應該在 88.5% 到 89.5% 之間，這反映了對我們一年前提供的 90% 到 91% 的指導預期的改善。我們預計實際稅率將接近法定稅率，即 21%。我們今年的貓負荷是 6.5%，第一季的貓負荷是 6%。

The financial impact of natural catastrophe kings in January 2025 and is expected to be less than $10 million above the January monthly cat plan of $30 million. California wildfires represents the overwhelming majority of January cats.

自然災害的財務影響將在 2025 年 1 月達到頂峰，預計將比 1 月每月 3,000 萬美元的自然災害計畫高出不到 1,000 萬美元。加州山火佔了一月份野火數量的絕大多數。

To wrap up, we are beginning the year extremely well positioned for enhanced meter performance supported by our diversified franchise, which not only strengthens our resilience against market fluctuations but also positions us to capitalize on emerging opportunities. As we continue to focus on delivering value, our robust financial foundation and innovative approach will drive long-term success and shareholder returns.

總而言之，在多元化特許經營的支持下，我們以極其有利的地位開始新的一年，以提高電錶性能，這不僅增強了我們抵禦市場波動的能力，而且使我們能夠利用新興機會。隨著我們繼續專注於創造價值，我們強勁的財務基礎和創新方法將推動長期成功和股東回報。

With that, we will now open the line for questions. Operator? Operator are you looking for questions?

現在，我們將開始回答大家的提問。操作員？接線生您在尋找問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

(操作員指示) 摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

So my first question is around the core commercial. I understand that the growth is going to come from the small market. But you also mentioned that it seems like you're better positioned in the middle market for business in 2025 as well. Going forward, are there any lines of business within the middle market that you feel that could be a great opportunity for growth. Maybe if you can unpack what are the things you're more optimistic about in the middle market as well.

所以我的第一個問題是關於核心商業的。我明白成長將來自小市場。但您也提到，到 2025 年，您在中端市場的業務定位似乎也會更佳。展望未來，您是否認為中階市場中有哪些業務線可以帶來巨大的成長機會？或許您也可以解釋一下您對中端市場更樂觀的是什麼。

Sure. Bob, this is Jack. I'll say a few comments about that and then let Dick Lavey chime in. But we're really excited, frankly, heading into 2025 that not only are we continuing to have tremendous momentum with our small commercial business, both in terms of top line and bottom line but also that a lot of hard work in the middle market area, both in terms of addressing ex cat volatility and also cat loads are substantially behind us, and we really are in the best position we've been in some time.

當然。鮑勃，這是傑克。我將對此發表一些評論，然後讓 Dick Lavey 加入討論。但坦白說，我們真的很高興，邁入 2025 年，我們不僅在小型商業業務方面繼續保持強勁勢頭，無論是在營收和利潤方面，而且在中端市場領域，無論是在應對巨災波動方面，還是在巨災負荷方面，我們都已經付出了很多努力，我們確實處於一段時間以來的最佳位置。

That said, we will watch the environment throughout the year to see how much we are able to elevate our growth in middle market. We believe that small commercial continue to drive high single-digit growth but we're going to keep middle market more in the mid-single-digit area until we get that next level of confidence that the external environment kind of requires or allows us to kind of take that growth up a level.

儘管如此，我們仍將全年專注於環境，以了解我們能夠在多大程度上提高中端市場的成長。我們相信，小型商業將繼續推動高個位數成長，但我們將保持中型市場更多地保持在中等個位數區域，直到我們獲得外部環境所要求或允許我們將這種成長提升到一個新水平的信心。

And that is our Inevitably, what where we'd like to do is get middle market to participate substantially in our growth. So, Dick, maybe you want to be more specific?

這是我們不可避免的事情，我們希望做的是讓中端市場充分參與我們的成長。那麼，迪克，也許你想更具體一點？

Yes, sure. Bob, I think we're a package player. So, when we think about growth, we think about the account, we have one of the strongest account is in the market. But that said, we're -- we continue to be excited about work comp in the near term. Outlook for that and long-term outlook. So, we'll lean in even for some [monoline] work comp, particularly in all, but definitely as part of a package in the middle market space. So that's -- those would be my comments on the line side.

是的，當然。鮑勃，我認為我們是一家一攬子企業。因此，當我們考慮成長時，我們會考慮帳戶，我們擁有市場上最強大的帳戶之一。但話雖如此，我們 - 我們仍然對近期的工作補償感到興奮。對此的展望和長期的展望。因此，我們甚至會傾向於某些[單一產品]工作補償，特別是所有產品，但絕對是作為中端市場領域的一部分。這就是——這些就是我對線路方面的評論。

For the industry side, we pride ourselves on being a great underwriting company. So, we think about some of your classic main street industries, manufacturing, professional services. But we also are very excited and continue in some of our more specialized areas like Tech and Life Sciences being at the top of that list, but also human services, which is an area where we have some distinctive offerings in the market.

從行業角度來說，我們為自己是一家優秀的承保公司而感到自豪。因此，我們考慮一些經典的主要街道產業、製造業、專業服務業。但我們也非常興奮，並將繼續在一些更專業的領域發展，例如科技和生命科學，以及人力服務，這是我們在市場上提供一些獨特產品的領域。

Okay. Got it. No, that's very helpful. So, my second question roles around reserving. I understand that you're adding a little bit to the IBNR specifically on the commercial umbrella side. Can you maybe help us think about the rationale behind that a little bit more obviously, social inflation and being just a little bit more conservative on reserving. But just are their things trend wise, are you seeing things that could potentially be a cause of concern, either on the severity side or maybe claim frequency things of that nature?

好的。知道了。不，這非常有幫助。因此，我的第二個問題與保留有關。我知道您在 IBNR 中添加了一些內容，特別是在商業保護傘方面。您能否幫助我們更深入地思考背後的原因，即社會通膨和在儲備方面更為保守。但是，從趨勢來看，您是否看到一些可能引起擔憂的事情，無論是嚴重程度方面，還是頻率方面之類的事情？

Bob, it's Jeff. Just to put it in perspective, we've seen favorability in all our segments for reserving. We've seen favorability in all major core lines of business. And we've been steadily increasing our current accident year picks over the last few years, largely with IBNR and I think we're well prepared for those casualty trends.

鮑勃，我是傑夫。從整體來看，我們在所有細分市場都看到了對預訂的青睞。我們看到所有主要核心業務線都呈現良好勢頭。過去幾年來，我們一直在穩步增加當前事故年份的選擇，主要是透過 IBNR，我認為我們已經為這些傷亡趨勢做好了充分的準備。

I would remind you that we've seen substantial claims frequency since the pre-COVID levels, and it's been very helpful along with rate and prudent reserving. But I don't think it's a state secret that casualty trends have been more severe. And so, people are more likely to involve a lawyer and lawyers are more aggressive. But there's nothing in the specific terms in our current accident year that we're really seeing, we just want to be prudent and prepared.

我要提醒您，自 COVID 之前的水平以來，我們已經看到索賠頻率大幅上升，這與利率和審慎準備金一起非常有幫助。但我不認為傷亡趨勢更嚴重是國家秘密。因此，人們更有可能聘請律師，而律師也更積極主動。但在當前事故年中我們並沒有看到什麼具體條款，我們只是希望謹慎並做好準備。

Got it. So, it's more conservatism than anything else?

知道了。那麼，這比其他任何事情都更具有保守主義的性質？

Correct.

正確的。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的邁克爾·菲利普斯。

Last quarter, you guys mentioned how for core commercial lines, the core loss ratio could improve somewhat from 2024 levels given what you're seeing in pricing and loss trend. I guess, does the action that you just talked about, albeit a small action. Does that give you any pause for those comments?

上個季度，你們提到，對於核心商業險種，根據定價和損失趨勢，核心損失率可能會比 2024 年的水準有所改善。我想，確實做了你剛才談到的動作，儘管是一個小動作。這是否讓您暫停一下並發表評論？

I don't think so. We're still very comfortable with them. We expect our liability pricing to accelerate in 2025, and we expect to see some improvement in the core commercial loss ratio in '25, largely driven by property.

我不這麼認為。我們對他們依然很滿意。我們預計我們的負債定價將在 2025 年加速，我們預計 25 年核心商業損失率將有所改善，這主要得益於財產保險。

Okay. Jeff, I heard opening comments on personal umbrella a couple of times how you're mining loss trends there. And then I think on commercial umbrella, I think you said 14% rate. So, thanks for that. I heard (technical difficulty). But your commercial umbrella book, I believe is about 1/3 of your GL book. So not small.

好的。傑夫，我聽過幾次關於個人保護傘的開場評論，你是如何挖掘那裡的損失趨勢的。然後我認為就商業保護傘而言，我認為你說的利率是 14%。所以，謝謝你。我聽說（技術難度）。但您的商業總括帳簿，我相信約佔您的 GL 帳簿的 1/3。所以不小。

And I guess we know you don't write stand-alone basis, but I'm wondering if you could share any kind of more quantitative comments or maybe (technical difficulty), that'd be nice, what you see on that book for commercial umbrella or maybe other quantitative comments like the rate standing business that could help us ease concerns that tough times could be ahead for the commercial umbrella.

我想我們知道您不會寫獨立的基礎，但我想知道您是否可以分享任何更多的量化評論，或者也許（技術難度），那會很好，您對商業保護傘的書有何看法，或者也許其他量化評論，例如利率站立業務，可以幫助我們緩解人們對商業保護傘未來可能面臨艱難時期的擔憂。

Yes, Mike, this is Dick. Yes. So, you hit, and I'll start with that. We no longer write any monoline umbrella. We manage our limits very tightly. As you know, our limits are low relative to the industry. Our umbrella -- our commercial umbrella is about 7% of our overall commercial portfolio. So that gives you some quantitative view. And yes, pricing is a critical lever. We're at 14% in the quarter but pushing that number up northward throughout '25.

是的，麥克，這是迪克。是的。所以，你打了，我就從那裡開始。我們不再承保任何單線保險。我們對自己的限制管理得非常嚴格。如您所知，我們的限額相對於行業而言較低。我們的商業保險約占我們整體商業投資組合的 7%。這給你一些定量的觀點。是的，定價是一個關鍵的槓桿。本季我們的成長率為 14%，但在整個 25 年，這一數字不斷上升。

I think it's been several years, if not longer, since we've written any model in umbrella, just to be clear not a new phenomenon. We've been talking about it since 2018.

我想，自從我們用傘寫過任何模型以來，已經過去了好幾年了，甚至更久，只是為了明確指出這不是新現象。我們從 2018 年就開始談論這個問題了。

And to be clear, sorry, (technical difficulty) the numbers. I said 30%. I was referring just to your deal book versus your 7%.

需要明確的是，抱歉，（技術困難）數字。我說的是30%。我所指的只是你的交易帳簿與你的 7% 之間的關係。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

I wanted to ask a big picture question on personalized. Now that you've kind of gone through, I think, from a functional perspective, the recovery. Are there some lessons urge or maybe some strategy changes that you're thinking about as you know that the book is open sort of back to profitability? And I'm just thinking about whether or not you've got the right geography, that kind of things now that you've sort of gotten through the process.

我想問一個關於個人化的大問題。現在，我認為，從功能角度而言，你已經經歷了恢復。由於您知道這本書對獲利能力有一定幫助，您是否正在考慮一些值得借鏡的經驗教訓或策略變革？我只是在想，既然你已經完成了整個過程，你是否掌握了正確的地理位置，諸如此類的事情。

Yes, Paul, this is Jack. Thanks for that question. There's no question that as the world evolves, and as our portfolio develops, we're thinking hard about what the future state of that next level of diversification looks like.

是的，保羅，這是傑克。謝謝你的提問。毫無疑問，隨著世界的發展和我們投資組合的拓展，我們正在認真思考下一個多元化階段的未來狀態是什麼樣的。

And we have the proper humility and experience coming out of the back half of '22 and '23 that as much progress as we were making both property and casualty, personal lines versus commercial lines, geography, we needed to accelerate that diversification. And while we have a huge successful business in Michigan and the Midwest relative to personal lines, it's outsized and so we needed to address that.

我們有著應有的謙遜態度，並從 22 年和 23 年下半年的經驗中認識到，儘管我們在財產和意外險、個人險與商業險、地域方面都取得了很大進展，但我們需要加速這種多元化。儘管我們在密西根州和中西部的個人保險業務非常成功，但規模過大，因此我們需要解決這個問題。

And the silver lining of 2023 is that we're getting to move that diversification and that portfolio improvement much faster than we ever could have but for the pain that we kind of took on in '23 in particular. So, the answer is yes. I do think about diversification though, as an enterprise. We have opportunities to grow specialty, commercial, our small commercial business even subsegments of our middle market business and not think about diversification for personal lines exclusively.

2023 年的希望是，我們將能夠比以往任何時候都更快地實現多元化和投資組合改善，除非我們在 23 年承受痛苦。所以，答案是肯定的。作為一家企業，我確實考慮過多樣化。我們有機會發展專業業務、商業業務、小型商業業務甚至中型市場業務的細分市場，而不是只考慮個人業務的多樣化。

And one other thought I would say about that, Paul, is that we're -- there's a lot of the states that we're not in, in personal lines are frankly not that desirable to us. So, expanding our footprint in personal lines substantially in the short to mid-range is not one of the levers that we want to pull. Longer term, we'll see how things play out. But we are dramatically changing our property aggregations in particular, across the enterprise with the work we've done. And I think we're really making progress in that diversification effort more broadly.

保羅，關於這一點我想說的另一個想法是，我們 —— 很多我們沒有進入的州，從個人角度來說，坦率地說對我們來說不是那麼有吸引力。因此，大幅擴大我們在短期至中期個人險業務的覆蓋範圍並不是我們想要採取的措施之一。從長遠來看，我們會看到事情如何發展。但透過我們所做的工作，我們正在徹底改變整個企業的財產聚合。我認為我們在更廣泛的多元化努力中確實取得了進展。

That's great. I apologize ahead of time. I'm going to beat the casualty reserve horse one more time because we're getting a lot of questions (technical difficulty) lot of questions on. Could you talk about sort of the trade-off of sort of these small increases in the IBR for some of these casualty lines versus sort of trying to -- taken a more aggressive view kind. What would be the things that would trigger a change in how you are increasing conservativeness with respect to casualty?

那太棒了。我提前道歉。我將再次擊敗傷亡預備隊，因為我們收到了很多問題（技術難題），很多問題。您能否談談在某些傷亡線路上小幅提高 IBR 與嘗試採取更積極的觀點之間的權衡？哪些因素會促使您在傷亡方面增加保守性？

Well, we're very comfortable with our reserve position, and we have established ample conservatism in our loss picks over the last several years. What we were talking about earlier in the call we're increasing our current loss pick by a relatively nominal amount to increase IBNR. Overall, I think we're very comfortable.

嗯，我們對我們的儲備立場非常滿意，並且在過去幾年中，我們在虧損選擇中已經建立了足夠的保守主義。我們在早些時候的電話會議中討論過，我們將當前的損失選擇增加相對名義上的數額，以增加 IBNR。總體而言，我認為我們非常舒服。

And as I said, we've had a very substantial frequency benefit over the last 4 to 5 years, which has offset a meaningful amount of the increased severity. So, I don't think you should think about it as nibbling away at an issue. I think it's minor amounts of additional prudence in the current accident year to make sure that there's nothing going on going forward that gives us pause or concern.

正如我所說，過去 4 到 5 年來，我們獲得了非常可觀的頻率效益，這在很大程度上抵消了事故嚴重程度的增加。因此，我認為你不應該將其視為一種逐漸解決的問題。我認為，在當前事故年度中，我們需要採取少量額外的謹慎措施，以確保今後不會發生任何令我們停頓或擔憂的事情。

Congratulations on the quarter, guys.

大家，恭喜本季取得佳績。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

(technical difficulty) for Mike. Maybe just on Personal Lines, specifically homeowners. What percentage of your loss ratio is maybe hail or SCS related? And just how much do you think the average deductible has gone up throughout the remediation cycle or throughout March and just taking back the deductibles have had to your go-forward expectation on the loss ratio?

（技術難題）對 Mike 來說。也許僅限於個人險，特別是房屋所有權人保險。您的損失率中有多少比例可能與冰雹或 SCS 有關？您認為在整個補救週期或整個三月份，平均免賠額增加了多少？

Yes, I don't have the specific hail component at our fingertips, but well, Dick is very familiar with the deduction.

是的，我手邊沒有具體的冰雹成分，但是迪克對推論非常熟悉。

On the deductible side, we're seeing those go up between 3 -- 3.5 to 5 times depending on the state. So, the state differences as to where we've seen it, but it's significant. So, it's having a meaningful effect on, as you've heard us say, some of the frequency of the smaller claim’s underneath those.

在免賠額方面，我們發現根據州的不同，免賠額會上漲 3 到 3.5 倍到 5 倍。所以，就我們所見，各州之間有差異，但差異很大。所以，正如您所聽到的，它對這些下面一些小額索賠的頻率產生了有意義的影響。

Yes. This is Jack. Just to remind you, we have really imposed the minimum apparels deductible in most states at around $2,500 and then a 1% or 1.5% wind and hail deductible in the Midwest in conjunction with some of the coastal stuff, although we're not really a big coastal writer.

是的。這是傑克。只是提醒您，我們實際上已經在大多數州實施了最低服裝免賠額，約為 2,500 美元，然後對中西部地區以及一些沿海地區實施了 1% 或 1.5% 的風和冰雹免賠額，儘管我們實際上並不是一個大型的沿海作家。

So when you think of hail and win losses in severe convective storm territories, we've made a major improvement in terms of the self-insurance that is part of our proposition to a customer. So major differences. In many cases, damaged roof would be really half covered by the customer in terms of their retention.

因此，當您想到嚴重對流風暴地區的冰雹和損失時，我們在向客戶提供的自我保險方面取得了重大進展。差別如此之大。在許多情況下，受損的屋頂實際上只由客戶承擔一半的保留金。

That's helpful. And then maybe just a similar thing with that, just pit in the Midwest overall. How strategically is Hanover thinking about PIF there. Is there like a target number for Midwest as a percent of its personalized portfolio? Or is it kind of just treating loss ratio needle or back into something like that?

這很有幫助。然後也許會發生類似的事情，整個中西部地區都是如此。漢諾威對 PIF 有何策略思考？中西部地區個人化投資組合的百分比目標是多少？或者這只是治療損失率針或回到類似的東西？

Yes. I think the growth is really one of the levers that we're using to get our property aggregation, we're comfortable. And again, that's on an enterprise base because we write commercial lines in the Midwest also. So, we have what we think is an industry-leading approach to not only measuring our property aggregations and micro concentrations but modeling them relative to the various perils.

是的。我認為成長確實是我們用來實現房地產聚合的槓桿之一，我們對此感到滿意。而且，這是以企業為基礎的，因為我們也在中西部地區撰寫商業線。因此，我們認為我們擁有一種領先業界的方法，不僅可以衡量我們的財產聚集和微觀集中度，還可以根據各種風險對其進行建模。

And so our guardrails that we've imposed are really more about micro concentrations against an earnings volatility measure versus just some magical PIF count. That said, what you're seeing is that we are shrinking PIF mostly through less new business in the Midwest for a 2-year period to get us to where we want to get in conjunction with pricing terms and conditions and overall micro concentration reevaluations in certain sub territories.

因此，我們實施的護欄實際上更多的是針對收益波動指標的微觀集中度，而不僅僅是一些神奇的 PIF 計數。也就是說，您所看到的是，我們正在縮減 PIF，主要是透過 2 年內減少中西部地區的新業務，以使我們達到我們想要的目標，同時結合定價條款和條件以及某些子區域的整體微觀集中度重新評估。

So we're well on our way to a much more balanced position. And it's my hope and expectation that as we get to '26, we're going to be thinking about growth in a more balanced way and less defensive in the Midwest.

因此，我們正朝著更平衡的方向前進。我的希望和期望是，當我們進入26年時，我們將以更平衡的方式考慮中西部的成長，而不是防禦性的成長。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

I had one minor question and one big picture question. But starting with the minor. I guess, we saw net written premium growth in specialty for professional and executive lines up with the highest growth rate we've seen in a while. And I guess the sense we have is that pricing has been getting better for a lot of the line there. I was hoping if you could talk to what just -- what drove the growth in the quarter?

我有一個小問題和一個大問題。但要從小事做起。我想，我們看到專業和高階主管險種的淨承保保費成長率達到了我們一段時間以來的最高水準。我想我們的感覺是那裡很多產品的定價已經變得更好了。我希望您能談談推動本季成長的因素是什麼？

So this is Jack. Real quickly. I think one of the things I always remind folks, and I don't have to remind you, Meyer, that our specialty book is broad-based, but it’s also tend to be retail-driven and on the lower end. And so some of the pricing, I think, that you're hearing about in the marketplace is kind of one [octave] or 2 octaves above where we play in terms of some of the pressure, that said, I'll let Bryan speak to our growth patterns and kind of our overall thought around pricing and growth.

這就是傑克。真的很快。我認為我一直提醒大家的一件事，而且我不需要提醒你，邁耶，我們的特色圖書範圍廣泛，但它也傾向於零售驅動和低端市場。因此，我認為，您在市場上聽到的一些定價比我們承受的壓力高出一個或兩個八度，話雖如此，我會讓布萊恩談談我們的成長模式以及我們對定價和成長的整體想法。

Yes. So, thanks for the question, Meyer. I would start by saying I think what Jack said is important, right? Where we play is important to us. We continue to get really nice pricing, 9.5% in the quarter. And I would add, if I look across the portfolio, right, 5 years of rate in excess of trend. So that's positioning us quite well. And so now as looking at that growth in the professional and executive lines as well as out of our key lines like marine, like health care, right? There we see the margin here.

是的。所以，感謝邁耶的提問。首先我想說，我認為傑克說的話很重要，對嗎？我們在哪裡比賽對我們來說很重要。我們繼續獲得非常好的定價，本季為 9.5%。我想補充一點，如果我縱觀整個投資組合，5 年的利率都超過了趨勢水準。因此，這對我們而言是相當有利的。那麼現在我們來看看專業和行政領域的成長，以及我們的關鍵領域，如海洋、醫療保健領域的成長，對嗎？我們在這兒看到了邊緣。

We see the opportunity to be going after this business. And so, we are planning for them to grow, and we're investing in them growing. And a nice component of that is new business. We had our highest new business year in 5 years in 2024.

我們看到了開展這項業務的機會。因此，我們計劃讓它們成長，並且我們正在為它們的成長進行投資。其中一個很好的組成部分就是新業務。2024 年是我們五年來新業務成長最高的一年。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then I apologize, this is going to sound like a softball, but I really want to understand the mechanics of it. So, we've seen sort of across the industry, maybe pressure on agency incentive compensation because of reserve strengthening for casualty lines. And obviously, that didn't happen at Hanover. And in the real world, how does that impact your ability to grow with agents?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後我很抱歉，這聽起來可能有點難，但我真的想了解它的機制。因此，我們看到整個產業都出現了因傷亡險種儲備加強而導致代理機構激勵薪酬面臨壓力的情況。顯然，這在漢諾威並沒有發生。那麼在現實世界中，這對您與代理商共同成長的能力有何影響？

So let me just make sure I heard you clearly. You're saying that you're observing pressure on agency comp because of the loss trend environment. And since we haven't experienced that, how are we thinking about our compensation with agents or how that affects our P&L? What -- can you help me?

因此，請讓我確認一下我聽清楚了您的意思。您說由於虧損趨勢環境，您觀察到代理機構薪酬面臨壓力。既然我們還沒有經歷過這種情況，我們如何考慮向代理商支付報酬或這會對我們的損益產生什麼影響？什麼——你能幫我嗎？

How it affects their willingness to grow with Hanover? I would assume (technical difficulty) but I don't know that.

這如何影響他們與漢諾威共同成長的意願？我認為存在（技術難度），但我不知道。

Yes. I'll say a couple of things on this, and if Bryan or Dick want to add in. We manage our decency relationships. I think more proactively than anybody, I think, that we compete against. We have tremendous local relationships that are regional vice president’s drive. And we have a pretty focused national approach to the agents that are consolidating and growing.

是的。我就此說幾點，如果 Bryan 或 Dick 想補充的話。我們管理好自己的體面關係。我認為，我們比任何競爭對手都更積極主動地思考。我們擁有龐大的本地關係，這是區域副總裁的動力。我們對正在整合和成長的代理商採取了非常有針對性的全國性策略。

And what we're observing is that agency compensation now is one strategic element of our partnership model. Many of those agents, as you know, are looking for a little bit more stability in there, compensation. So, we're able to model and negotiate something that allows them to get a little bit more predictability, but also take some of the volatility out of the payments.

我們觀察到，代理商報酬現在是我們合作模式的策略要素。如你所知，許多經紀人都希望獲得更穩定和豐厚的報酬。所以，我們可以建模並協商一些事宜，讓他們獲得更強的可預測性，但同時也消除支付中的一些波動性。

In aggregate over time, frankly, that has been a tailwind for us. And so -- but we are as well positioned as we've ever been from an agency incentive perspective and compensation is part of that, but I think some of it has to do with how hard we work to help them improve their economics operationally and more broadly than compensation. So really couldn't be more pleased with the way this is playing out and really a consolidating time in the business on the agency side.

坦白說，從長遠來看，這對我們來說是一股順風。所以 — — 但從代理激勵的角度來看，我們處於一如既往的有利位置，薪酬是其中的一部分，但我認為其中一些與我們努力幫助他們在運營上和比薪酬更廣泛的領域改善經濟狀況有關。因此，我真的對事情的進展感到非常滿意，這確實是代理業務的整合時期。

Yes. The only thing I'd say, Meyer, is that if you ask an agent of that question, they would say it begins with the customer and what's right for the customer, placing them with the right care with the right coverages but naturally, the state of the partnership comes into play, I think is what Jack is getting out there.

是的。邁耶，我唯一想說的是，如果你問代理人這個問題，他們會說，一切都從客戶開始，什麼對客戶最有利，為他們提供適當的護理和適當的保障，但自然地，合作關係的狀態也會發揮作用，我想這就是傑克所說的。

Their desire to grow with certain markets based on all the elements of the value proposition that they bring to the table for that agent. So, it's -- I wouldn't say they look at specifically about the way the mechanics of a profit-sharing plan works to then go right to giving a carrier, one piece of business or not.

他們希望根據自己為代理商帶來的所有價值主張要素，與特定市場共同成長。所以，我不會說他們具體研究利潤分享計畫的運作機制，然後直接將業務給予承運人或不給予承運人。

(Operator Instructions) Bob Farnam, [Janney]

（操作員指示）Bob Farnam，[珍妮]

A couple of questions. First for Bryan. I just want to talk about the excess and surplus lines business specifically. Just how submission trends are looking there? And in 2025, you -- are you looking -- are you leaning more towards property risks or case derisks or it doesn't matter?

幾個問題。對布萊恩來說這是第一次。我只是想具體談談超額和剩餘線路業務。那裡的提交趨勢到底是怎麼樣的？到 2025 年，您是否更傾向於財產風險或案件風險，或者這並不重要？

Yes. Thank you for the question. So first off, our E&S activity, the submission activity, the quote activity remained very high and growing increasing throughout '24. I would call out that we do have E&S across our portfolio. So, it's not just the traditional property and casualty that you might think of, but it's across our lines in E&S, it is -- the activity is growing and so are the books of business. In terms of that mix, what I would share with you is that our portfolio is pretty close to it in terms of property and casualty.

是的。感謝您的提問。首先，我們的 E&S 活動、提交活動、報價活動一直保持很高的水平，並且在整個 24 年內都在不斷增長。我想說的是，我們的投資組合中確實有 E&S。因此，它不僅僅是您可能想到的傳統財產和意外傷害險，而且它還跨越了我們在 E&S 的業務線，業務活動不斷增長，業務帳簿也在不斷增長。就該組合而言，我想與大家分享的是，我們的財產和意外險投資組合與其非常接近。

And we like that balance, right? Given what we're seeing in the casualty environment right now, having that balance of property and casualty, the way we have it is attractive to us. And we very sort of diligently managed to not getting overweighted on either side.

我們喜歡這種平衡，對嗎？考慮到我們目前在傷亡環境中看到的情況，擁有財產和傷亡之間的平衡，我們所擁有的方式對我們來說很有吸引力。我們非常努力地避免任何一方的負擔過重。

And I would also say what's also attractive about that property and casualty mix is our property and E&S, as you would expect, is a little less cat sensitive so that kind of helps us in the enterprise view of bringing in some property business that doesn't really materially add to our property aggregations.

我還要說的是，財產險和意外險組合的另一個吸引人之處在於，正如您所期望的那樣，我們的財產險和 E&S 對巨災風險的敏感度較低，因此從企業角度來看，這有助於我們引入一些不會真正實質性地增加我們財產總額的財產業務。

Actually, one more thing. I would just ask that we keep in mind that our portfolio also always skews towards the middle market and lower type of risks. So, our limit profiles are a little bit different than others. And so, we like the way that portfolio is building for us.

其實，還有一件事。我只是想要求大家記住，我們的投資組合也總是偏向中階市場和較低風險類型。所以，我們的極限概況與其他人略有不同。因此，我們喜歡該投資組合為我們建造的方式。

Great. Okay. Second question is -- all right, so how do you respond to investors that may just take a look at the P&C sector overall and say, hey, look, rate increases are decelerating. We're kind of past the hard market peak. Maybe the story has played out. If they're kind of getting down in the market, how do you respond to that? Because obviously, you have got a lot of things going, but you're trying to have to convince investors to continue to look at the stock.

偉大的。好的。第二個問題是 - 好的，那麼您如何回應那些可能只看一下財產和意外傷害保險行業整體情況並說“嘿，看，利率上漲正在放緩”的投資者呢？我們差不多已經度過了艱難的市場高峰。或許故事已經結束了。如果他們的市場表現低迷，您會如何應對？因為顯然你有很多事情要做，但你必須說服投資人繼續關注該股票。

Yes. Bob, this is Jack. I would tell you, if you look long term or even midrange, I think of this as a time in our business where the world is getting increasingly risky, and loss trends are stable to up. And so, I don't see that as being a stage in the market where we're going to have peak pricing.

是的。鮑勃，這是傑克。我想告訴你，如果從長期甚至中期來看，我認為在我們的業務中，現在正處於世界風險越來越大的時期，損失趨勢穩定甚至上升。因此，我並不認為市場將進入價格高峰的階段。

I think tomorrow's pricing has everything to do with how these loss trends play out. And from my perspective, the liability trends are deteriorating within the industry. The weather is continuing to be challenging. So, I don't share the view that we're somehow at the top of the cycle and about the way to go down.

我認為明天的定價與這些損失趨勢如何發展密切相關。從我的角度來看，該行業的責任趨勢正在惡化。天氣狀況持續惡劣。因此，我不認為我們已經處於週期的頂端並且將走向下行。

It depends on what sectors you play in. And so, what I would leave you with is what makes me so excited about heading into '25 is that we have the most balanced portfolio we've ever had across our four major businesses, all now producing double-digit ROEs and allowing to anticipating our growth. And that's what gives us resilience and the ability to be opportunistic in the areas at the right time and then where appropriate, has some defense. And I think that's the recipe for good profitable growth going forward.

這取決於你從事哪個行業。因此，我要告訴你們的是，讓我對進入25年感到如此興奮的是，我們四大業務的投資組合達到了史上最均衡的水平，所有業務現在都實現了兩位數的 ROE，並且可以預期我們的增長。這給了我們韌性和在正確的時間在正確的領域抓住機會的能力，然後在適當的時候進行防禦。我認為這是未來實現良好獲利成長的秘訣。

On a more tactical level, Bob, I think about articulating a view where Personal Lines has additional margin improvement coming in 2025. The core loss ratio is likely to improve on property improvement. NII has dramatic improvement going forward and even some marginal expense ratio improvement. So, Jack did a nice job explaining the whole industry. But I think in terms of our value proposition, there's a lot of opportunity for strong investor returns.

鮑勃，從更戰術的層面來說，我想表達這樣一種觀點，即個人險的利潤率將在 2025 年進一步提高。隨著資產品質的改善，核心損耗率可能會有所改善。NII 在未來會有顯著的改善，甚至費用率也會有一些邊際改善。所以，傑克很好地解釋了整個行業。但我認為，就我們的價值主張而言，為投資者帶來豐厚回報的機會很多。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Oksana Lukasheva for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給奧克薩娜·盧卡舍娃 (Oksana Lukasheva)，請她作最後發言。

We appreciate everyone's time today and your support and looking forward to talking to you next quarter.

我們感謝大家今天的時間和支持，並期待下個季度與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路了。