Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to The Hanover Insurance Group’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call. My name is Nick, and I will be your operator for today’s call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加漢諾威保險集團第四季財報電話會議。我叫尼克，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Oksana Lukasheva. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給奧克薩娜·盧卡舍娃。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our quarterly conference call. We will begin today’s call with prepared remarks from Jack Roche, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Farber, our Chief Financial Officer. Available to answer your questions after our prepared remarks are Dick Lavey, Chief Operating Officer and President of Agency Markets; and Bryan Salvatore, President of Specialty Lines. Before I turn the call over to Jack, let me note that our earnings press release, financial supplement, and a complete slide presentation for today’s call are available in the Investor section of our website at hanover.com. After the presentation, we will answer questions in the Q&A session.

謝謝接線生。早安，感謝各位參加我們的季度電話會議。今天，我們將首先由我們的總裁兼執行長傑克·羅奇和財務長傑夫·法伯發表準備好的演講。在我們的演講結束後，可以回答各位問題的有：營運長兼代理市場總裁迪克·拉維；以及特種保險總裁布萊恩·薩爾瓦托。在將電話交給傑克之前，我想說明一下，我們的盈利新聞稿、財務補充資料以及今天電話會議的完整幻燈片演示文稿都可以在我們網站hanover.com的投資者關係版塊找到。演示結束後，我們將在問答環節回答問題。

Our prepared remarks and responses to your questions today, other than statements of historical fact, include forward‑looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can relate to, among other things, our outlook and 2026 guidance for the level of profitability and premium growth, economic conditions and related effects including economic and social inflation, tariffs, as well as other risks and uncertainties such as severe weather and catastrophes that could impact the company’s performance and/or cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. We caution you with respect to reliance on forward‑looking statements and, in this respect, refer you to the forward‑looking statement section in our press release, the presentation deck, and our filings with the SEC.

除了歷史事實陳述外，我們今天準備好的發言和對你們問題的回答包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明可能涉及（但不限於）我們的展望和 2026 年獲利能力和保費成長指引、經濟狀況及相關影響（包括經濟和社會通膨、關稅）以及其他風險和不確定性（例如惡劣天氣和災難），這些風險和不確定性可能會影響公司的績效和/或導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。我們提醒您不要依賴前瞻性陳述，並在此方面，請參閱我們的新聞稿、簡報和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的前瞻性陳述部分。

Today’s discussion will also reference certain non‑GAAP financial measures such as operating income and accident year loss and combined ratios excluding catastrophes among others. A reconciliation of these non‑GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP measure on a historical basis can be found in the press release, the slide presentation, or the financial supplement which are posted on our website.

今天的討論也將提及一些非GAAP財務指標，例如營業收入、事故年度損失以及不包括災難在內的綜合比率等。您可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿、幻燈片簡報或財務補充文件中找到這些非GAAP財務指標與最接近的GAAP指標的歷史比較。

With those comments, I will turn the call over to Jack.

以上就是我的發言，接下來我將把電話交給傑克。

Thank you, Oksana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，奧克薩娜。各位早安，感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。

Our outstanding fourth-quarter results capped a record year for The Hanover, a year marked by disciplined execution and strong engagement across the enterprise. Our performance in the quarter and in the full year is a testament to our agility and operational excellence, and also to the power of a strategy built to provide resilience, adaptability, and long‑term value creation. We delivered excellent margins while growing with intention. In markets where competition intensified, we remained disciplined, prioritizing profitability and quality risk selection. At the same time, we leaned into segments with attractive margins and favorable risk profiles. This balanced, targeted approach enabled us to navigate complex markets with confidence and clarity.

我們第四季優異的業績為漢諾威創紀錄的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，這一年以嚴謹的執行和整個企業的積極參與為標誌。本季和全年的業績證明了我們的敏捷性和卓越的營運能力，也證明了旨在提供韌性、適應性和長期價值創造的策略的力量。我們在穩定成長的同時，也實現了優異的利潤率。在競爭加劇的市場中，我們保持嚴謹，優先考慮獲利能力和品質風險選擇。同時，我們將重點放在利潤率高、風險狀況良好的細分市場。這種平衡、有針對性的方法使我們能夠自信、清晰地駕馭複雜的市場。

In addition, we continued to invest in a strategy that sets our company apart from our competitors, building out our product and service capabilities, enhancing our technology, strengthening our agency partnerships, and attracting and developing top talent. These investments have sharpened our competitive edge and have positioned us to capitalize on opportunities in any market environment, driving sustainable growth and profitability. From a financial perspective, we achieved one of the best fourth quarters in our 30-year history as a public company with record quarterly operating earnings per share. For the full year, we delivered an all‑time high operating return on equity of 20% along with a new record for annual operating earnings per share.

此外，我們繼續投資於一項使我們公司與競爭對手區分開來的策略，即增強我們的產品和服務能力，提升我們的技術，加強我們的代理合作關係，以及吸引和培養頂尖人才。這些投資增強了我們的競爭優勢，使我們能夠在任何市場環境下抓住機遇，從而推動永續成長和獲利能力。從財務角度來看，我們取得了上市 30 年來最好的第四季業績之一，創下了季度每股營運收益紀錄。全年來看，我們的股本回報率達到了歷史新高 20%，同時每股年度營業收益也創下了新紀錄。

While we benefited from favorable weather in the fourth quarter and the year, we also generated strong underlying profit. The improvements in our underlying performance are the result of disciplined portfolio management and underwriting, building on the margin work we have been driving for the past few years as well as the skilled and thoughtful management of our investment portfolio. Now let's look at our operating performance by segment beginning with Personal Lines.

雖然我們在第四季和全年都受益於有利的天氣，但我們也實現了強勁的基本利潤。我們基本面績效的改善，得益於嚴謹的投資組合管理和承銷，建立在我們過去幾年一直在努力提高保證金以及對投資組合進行熟練而周全的管理之上。現在讓我們以業務部門來看看我們的經營業績，首先從個人保險業務開始。

Our Personal Lines team continued to deliver outstanding profitability during the year, a direct result of the decisive actions we have taken and the strong execution across our business. We have materially elevated the resiliency and performance of our portfolio through pricing, changes in terms and conditions, and targeted deconcentration actions in the Midwest. These actions are driving stronger and more sustainable profitability while positioning us to deliver continued growth, balanced risk exposure, and sustainable long‑term returns. Personal Lines net written premium growth increased to 4.4% in the quarter with full-year growth of 3.7% primarily driven by pricing. Retention remained relatively stable, highlighting strong customer loyalty, the differentiated value of our bundled product offering, and the support of our agency partners.

我們個人保險業務團隊在這一年中繼續取得了卓越的盈利能力，這直接得益於我們採取的果斷行動以及我們業務各部門的強有力執行。我們透過定價、條款和條件的變化以及在中西部地區有針對性的分散投資行動，顯著提高了我們投資組合的韌性和績效。這些舉措正在推動更強勁、更永續的獲利能力，同時使我們能夠實現持續成長、平衡的風險敞口和可持續的長期回報。本季個人風險淨保費收入成長至 4.4%，全年成長 3.7%，主要受價格因素推動。客戶留存率保持相對穩定，這凸顯了客戶的高度忠誠度、我們捆綁式產品提供的差異化價值以及我們代理合作夥伴的支持。

And while rate is normalizing from historically high levels, we are very confident in our ability to sustain strong margins. Our Personal Lines team continued to advance our diversification strategy, focusing our growth in 11 key states where we have identified compelling, profitable expansion opportunities. Overall premiums in these states grew approximately 8% in the fourth quarter compared to 3% in all other states with new business seeing strong momentum in these diversification states. The momentum we have established across the business, coupled with our targeted actions, has also reduced the relative weight of Midwest business in our portfolio, reducing its share of our total premiums by approximately 4 points since the beginning of 2023.

儘管利率正從歷史高點回落，但我們對維持強勁的利潤率非常有信心。我們的個人保險團隊繼續推動多元化策略，將成長重點放在我們已確定具有吸引力、盈利豐厚的擴張機會的 11 個關鍵州。這些州的保費總額在第四季度增長了約 8%，而其他所有州的保費總額僅增長了 3%，這些多元化州的新業務發展勢頭強勁。我們在整個業務中建立的勢頭，加上我們採取的有針對性的行動，也降低了中西部業務在我們投資組合中的相對權重，自 2023 年初以來，其在我們總保費中所佔的份額減少了約 4 個百分點。

While competition in monoline auto markets seems to be intensifying, differentiated offerings like bundled accounts and our Prestige product create significant opportunities to advance our market penetration and leverage our distribution strategy. As we look ahead, our Personal Lines business is well positioned to continue delivering steady, high‑quality performance and growth backed by solid margins, our effective whole account strategy, disciplined execution, and our geographic reach.

儘管單一汽車保險市場的競爭似乎正在加劇，但像捆綁帳戶和我們的尊享產品這樣的差異化產品，為我們提升市場滲透率和利用我們的分銷策略創造了重大機會。展望未來，憑藉穩健的利潤率、有效的整體帳戶策略、嚴謹的執行以及廣泛的地域覆蓋，我們的個人保險業務已做好充分準備，繼續保持穩定、高品質的業績和成長。

Moving now to Core Commercial. This business continued to deliver solid profitability for the quarter and the year supported by active portfolio management and disciplined pricing. While the market environment has become more competitive in select sectors, we have responded with greater precision and discernment, directing our efforts toward opportunities that meet our return thresholds. Our Small Commercial franchise continued to deliver a strong performance on both top and bottom lines with net written premiums increased by nearly 5% in the quarter and for the full year. Renewal metrics remained favorable in the business as well with strong retention and double‑digit price increases. New business was very healthy with double‑digit growth, a clear reflection of our market leadership and the strong commitment from our best agents as we pursue more targeted offense.

現在轉到核心商業領域。由於積極的投資組合管理和嚴格的定價策略，該業務在本季和全年繼續保持穩健的獲利能力。雖然某些行業的市場環境競爭更加激烈，但我們以更精準和審慎的態度應對，將精力集中在符合我們回報門檻的機會上。我們的小型商業保險業務在營收和利潤方面持續保持強勁成長，本季和全年淨保費收入均成長了近 5%。該業務的續約指標依然良好，客戶留存率高，價格漲幅達到兩位數。新業務發展非常健康，實現了兩位數的成長，這清楚地反映了我們的市場領導地位以及我們優秀經紀人為追求更有針對性的進攻而做出的堅定承諾。

Small Commercial has meaningful barriers to entry, and our competitive advantage is well established, anchored in an efficient service model, strong brand recognition with agents, and a robust product offering that blends point‑of‑sale capabilities with traditional underwriting expertise in the higher end of Small Commercial.

小型商業保險的進入門檻很高，而我們的競爭優勢已經確立，這得益於高效的服務模式、代理商強大的品牌認知度以及強大的產品組合，這些產品將銷售點能力與小型商業保險高端領域的傳統承保專業知識相結合。

During the year, we expanded our distribution capability through strategic and thoughtful new agency appointments and increased engagement with more account managers throughout our existing agency relationships. Our Workers Compensation Advantage product is now live in 17 states with a national rollout targeted by the end of 2026, making it even easier for our agent partners to place new business and to transition books of business to us as markets consolidate.

今年，我們透過策略性、深思熟慮的新代理商任命以及與現有代理商關係中的更多客戶經理加強合作，擴大了分銷能力。我們的工傷賠償優勢產品目前已在 17 個州上線，目標是在 2026 年底前在全國範圍內推廣，這將使我們的代理合作夥伴更容易開展新業務，並在市場整合時將業務轉移到我們這裡。

Moving on to Middle Market. Despite experiencing some softening property market conditions, underlying growth accelerated sequentially to 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Our proven strategy in Middle Market centers on managing the business at a granular level with focus on sectors where we can truly differentiate ourselves. Middle Market rate and retention reflected crisp execution in the quarter with rates and terms aligned to the underlying environment and the desirability of the risk.

接下來進入中端市場。儘管房地產市場狀況有所疲軟，但第四季基本面成長較上季加快至 2.6%。我們在中端市場行之有效的策略是以精細化的方式管理業務，專注於我們能夠真正脫穎而出的領域。本季中端市場利率和續約率反映了執行力強，利率和條款與基本面和風險可負擔性相符。

Renewal pricing decelerated modestly in the fourth quarter driven primarily by property lines. Even with such pricing moderation, earned pricing continues to meet loss trends. We continued to exercise discipline in this market, walking away from underpriced new business as rate and risk selection remain critical to our success. As we adjust to more dynamic market conditions, we have several levers to accelerate profitable growth in Middle Market. We are doubling down on high margin, expertise‑driven segments such as technology, human services, and manufacturing.

第四季續保價格成長略為放緩，主要受財產險業務影響。即使採取了這樣的定價策略，獲利定價仍然符合虧損趨勢。在這個市場中，我們繼續保持自律，放棄價格過低的新業務，因為利率和風險選擇對我們的成功仍然至關重要。隨著我們適應更動態的市場環境，我們有多種手段來加速中端市場的獲利成長。我們正在加倍投資高利潤、專業技術驅動的領域，例如技術、人力服務和製造業。

We are deploying our enhanced underwriting workbench which includes additional automation and pricing tools for underwriters to strengthen decision quality and improve productivity, and we are transitioning to an enhanced field underwriting model to ensure that we deploy strong expertise while adjusting to evolving agency operating models. Overall, our Core Commercial business is positioned to deliver top‑line improvement in 2026 led by continued growth momentum in Small Commercial in a market that remains overall rational and stable.

我們正在部署增強型核保工作台，其中包括為承保人提供的額外自動化和定價工具，以增強決策品質並提高生產力；同時，我們正在過渡到增強型現場承保模式，以確保我們在適應不斷變化的代理機構運作模式的同時，也能發揮強大的專業知識。整體而言，在市場整體保持理性穩定的前提下，小型商業業務的持續成長動能將引領我們的核心商業業務在 2026 年實現營收成長。

Turning to Specialty, this segment continues to deliver consistent and strong profitability through expertise‑based underwriting, targeted risk selection, and disciplined execution. We are taking targeted rate actions and deploying margins selectively to retain and grow our high‑quality book of business while staying close to loss cost trends. Granular policy design and improved terms and conditions continue to also help offset moderating rate trends.

再來看專業險領域，該領域透過基於專業知識的承保、有針對性的風險選擇和嚴謹的執行，持續實現穩定強勁的獲利能力。我們正在採取有針對性的費率調整措施，並選擇性地運用利潤率，以維持和發展我們高品質的業務，同時密切關注損失成本趨勢。精細化的政策設計和改進的條款細化也繼續有助於抵消利率放緩的趨勢。

Premium growth in Specialty moderated to approximately 4% in the fourth quarter adjusted for reinstatement premium, reflecting heightened competitive pressure across property lines which impacted our Hanover Specialty Industrial Property and, to a lesser degree, our Marine business. Importantly, market conditions remain constructive across most other Specialty segments with nice resiliency in the smaller account space which represents the vast majority of our book of business.

經過複效保費調整後，第四季特種險保費成長放緩至約 4%，反映出各險種之間的競爭壓力加劇，這影響了我們的漢諾威特種工業財產險，以及在較小程度上影響了我們的海洋險業務。重要的是，其他大多數專業領域的市場狀況依然良好，小型客戶領域（占我們業務的絕大部分）表現出了良好的韌性。

Excess and Surplus Lines continued to deliver strong double‑digit growth, and we enter 2026 with a very strong and experienced team in this segment. Our new AI-powered submission triage is delivering nicely. Our risk appetite is expanding in targeted areas, and we are well positioned to benefit from tightening capacity in parts of the market where we have deep expertise and strong appetite.

超額和剩餘險種繼續保持強勁的兩位數成長，我們進入 2026 年時，在這個領域擁有一支非常強大且經驗豐富的團隊。我們新推出的AI驅動的投稿分診系統運作良好。我們在特定領域的風險承受能力正在擴大，我們已經做好充分準備，從我們擁有深厚專業知識和強烈需求的市場領域的產能收緊中獲益。

Management liability growth accelerated in the fourth quarter due in large measure to pricing stabilization, strong growth in our financial institution segment, and an updated admitted asset manager product launched in the fourth quarter. More broadly across Professional and Executive Lines, our enhanced operating model is improving quoting speed, responsiveness, and agent engagement, supporting profitable growth as market conditions evolve.

第四季管理負債成長加速，主要歸因於價格穩定、金融機構部門的強勁成長以及第四季推出的更新版獲準資產管理產品。更廣泛地說，在專業險和行政險領域，我們改進的營運模式正在提高報價速度、反應速度和代理人參與度，從而在市場條件不斷變化的情況下支持獲利成長。

Surety delivered robust double‑digit growth in the quarter as we benefited from the growth in some commercial surety niches and from added tech capability to write E&S bond products. We are also driving meaningful efficiency gains through technology upgrades and process refinements that are speeding decision making and enhancing underwriting quality decisions. And at the same time, we have strengthened risk selection and pricing segmentation which are important contributors to the margin durability we are seeing across Specialty. Overall, Specialty remains a powerful lever for growth and ROE expansion supported by our team’s deep expertise, disciplined underwriting, and differentiated earnings across market environments.

本季擔保業務實現了強勁的兩位數成長，這得益於一些商業擔保細分市場的成長以及在編寫 E&S 債券產品方面增加的技術能力。我們也透過技術升級和流程改進，顯著提高了效率，加快了決策速度，並提高了核保品質決策。同時，我們加強了風險選擇和定價細分，這是我們在特種藥品領域看到的利潤率持續性的重要因素。總體而言，特種保險仍然是成長和 ROE 擴張的強大槓桿，這得益於我們團隊深厚的專業知識、嚴謹的承保以及在各種市場環境下的差異化收益。

As we close the books on 2025, ending the year with outstanding results and a solid foundation, we begin 2026 poised to build on that strength and to accelerate our progress. Our portfolio is stronger, our execution is sharper, and we have the operating leverage and discipline needed to continue to deliver attractive returns as we accelerate top‑line growth. We have built businesses that are resilient, adaptable, and positioned to win in any market through underwriting excellence and operational discipline.

2025 年即將結束，我們以優異的成績和堅實的基礎結束了這一年，2026 年伊始，我們已做好準備，在此基礎上再接再厲，加速前進。我們的投資組合更強大，執行力更強，我們擁有必要的營運槓桿和紀律，能夠在加速營收成長的同時繼續提供具有吸引力的回報。我們透過卓越的承保能力和嚴謹的運營，打造了具有韌性、適應性強且能夠在任何市場中取得成功的企業。

In closing, I want to thank and recognize our employees for their dedication, our agent partners for their collaboration, and our customers and investors for their trust in us.

最後，我要感謝並表彰我們的員工的奉獻精神，感謝我們的代理合作夥伴的合作，感謝我們的客戶和投資者對我們的信任。

With that, I will turn the call over to Jeff.

接下來，我會把電話交給傑夫。

Thank you, Jack, and good morning, everyone. We are very pleased with our exceptional performance and strong execution in both the fourth quarter and for the full year, headlined by several records as our momentum continues to build across every major area of the business. We wrapped up the year on a high note with an excellent fourth-quarter combined ratio of 89% as well as operating return on equity of 23.1%, one of our best results ever. Our full-year combined ratio was a strong 91.6%, improving over 3 points year over year.

謝謝你，傑克，大家早安。我們對第四季度和全年的出色表現和強勁執行力感到非常滿意，尤其是在多個方面創下紀錄，我們在業務的各個主要領域都持續保持成長勢頭。我們以優異的成績結束了這一年，第四季綜合比率達到 89%，營業淨資產收益率達到 23.1%，這是我們有史以來最好的業績之一。我們全年的綜合比率為91.6%，表現強勁，比前一年改善了3個百分點以上。

Excluding catastrophes, our combined ratio in 2025 was 87.1%, decisively outperforming our original guidance for the year and 1.3 points better when compared to 2024. Catastrophe losses for the year of 4.5 points came in well below our original guidance, helped by generally benign weather and our property management actions which continue to contribute positively to our cat and ex‑cat results. Our expense ratio of 31.1% for the year improved 20 basis points from 2024 but was above our original expectations driven primarily by higher variable agency and employee compensation, reflecting better than expected underwriting results and a much lower level of cats.

排除災難因素，我們 2025 年的綜合比率為 87.1%，遠超我們先前對該年的預期，比 2024 年提高了 1.3 個百分點。本年度的巨災損失為 4.5 個百分點，遠低於我們最初的預期，這得益於總體上較為溫和的天氣以及我們的物業管理措施，這些措施繼續對我們的巨災和無巨災業績做出積極貢獻。本年度費用率為 31.1%，比 2024 年改善了 20 個基點，但高於我們最初的預期，這主要是由於可變代理費和員工薪酬較高，反映出承保業績好於預期，巨災風險水平也低得多。

Additionally, we continued to make investments across the business to support future profitable growth. We remain committed to managing expenses carefully. Quarterly prior-year reserve development ex-CAT was favorable across each segment in both the fourth quarter and the full year. In Specialty, favorable prior year reserve development was 5.3 points for the quarter with widespread favorability across multiple coverages. In Personal Lines prior-year reserve development was slightly favorable in the quarter. Homeowners coverage continues to be favorable while we made a minor increase to auto bodily injury in response to higher severity. We also updated our current-year assumptions accordingly.

此外，我們也持續在業務各個方面進行投資，以支持未來的獲利成長。我們將繼續致力於謹慎控制支出。第四季和全年各業務部門的季度上年同期儲備發展（不包括巨災影響）均表現良好。在特殊保險方面，上年同期有利的準備金發展在本季為 5.3 個百分點，多個保險項目普遍受益。個人險業務上年同期準備金發展在本季略有改善。房屋保險仍然很優惠，同時我們略微提高了汽車人身傷害保險的保額，以應對傷勢嚴重程度的增加。我們也相應地更新了本年度的假設。

And in Core Commercial, fourth-quarter prior-year reserve development was 0.3 points favorable with very minor adjustments by line. As it relates to commercial and personal auto liability, we expect pricing to continue to increase in 2026. In line with our traditional reserving approach, we are being thoughtful and prudent in setting our loss picks in both prior and current accident years to ensure that our balance sheet remains strong.

在核心商業領域，第四季上年同期準備金發展為有利的 0.3 個百分點，各產品線的調整幅度都非常小。就商業和個人汽車責任險而言，我們預計價格將在 2026 年繼續上漲。按照我們傳統的準備金提列方法，我們在確定過去和當前事故年度的損失準備金時，都採取了深思熟慮和謹慎的態度，以確保我們的資產負債表保持穩健。

Turning to our underlying underwriting performance. We posted outstanding results and outpaced our expectations in both the quarter and the year. Our consolidated underlying loss ratio improved 1.1 points to 57.1% in the year with impressive improvement in Personal Lines, Specialty results that continue to exceed our expectations, and strong underwriting margins in Core Commercial.

接下來我們來看看基本的承保業績。我們取得了優異的業績，季度和年度業績都超出預期。本年度，我們的綜合基礎損失率改善了 1.1 個百分點，達到 57.1%，其中個人險業務取得了令人矚目的進步，特種險業務的業績繼續超出預期，核心商業險的承保利潤率也十分強勁。

Now I will discuss results by segment, starting with Personal Lines. This business posted an outstanding current accident year ex‑cat combined ratio of 85.3% for the year and 85.4% for the quarter, improving 3.8 points and 0.6 points from the prior-year periods respectively. The improvement in the year was driven by the benefit of earned pricing in both Personal Auto and Homeowners as well as reduced frequency. Our Personal Auto ex‑cat current accident year loss ratio was 69.5% for the year, an improvement of 2.2 points compared to the prior year. The result for the fourth quarter of 75.7% was higher year-over-year but approximated our expectations.

現在我將按細分市場討論業績，首先從個人保險業務開始。該業務本年度非意外事故綜合比率表現出色，全年為 85.3%，季度為 85.4%，分別比去年同期改善了 3.8 個百分點和 0.6 個百分點。今年業績的改善主要得益於個人汽車保險和房屋保險的保費上漲以及保費降低。本年度個人汽車意外險事故損失率為 69.5%，較前一年改善了 2.2 個百分點。第四季業績為 75.7%，高於去年同期水平，但與我們的預期基本相符。

Turning to Homeowners. We delivered exceptional ex‑cat current accident year loss ratio improvement down 6.4 points to 45.8% for the year and down 4.6 points to 36.6% in the fourth quarter. Earned pricing continues to be a benefit as well as favorable weather. We also continue to partially attribute lower claim frequency to deductible changes leading to fewer small claims not only intact, but also in ex-CAT results.

轉向房主。我們實現了卓越的非巨災當期事故年度損失率改善，全年下降 6.4 個百分點至 45.8%，第四季下降 4.6 個百分點至 36.6%。已獲得的定價以及有利的天氣仍然是一大優勢。我們也繼續將索賠頻率降低的部分原因歸結於免賠額的變化，這導緻小額索賠減少，不僅在原有情況下如此，而且在非巨災結果中也是如此。

Personal Lines growth accelerated to 4.4% in the fourth quarter with the full year at 3.7%. PIF was relatively stable in the quarter shrinking 0.6 points sequentially, which is an improvement from the third quarter of 2025. We expect PIF growth in 2026. We achieved Personal Lines renewal price of 9.2% in the quarter with auto pricing up 6.9% and home pricing up 12.3% while price increases were lower sequentially, they remain above our long-term loss trend. Umbrella pricing remained strong holding around 20%. We are pleased with our current Personal Lines rate levels in light of the strong overall profitability we've achieved.

第四季度個人保險業務增速加快至 4.4%，全年增速為 3.7%。PIF本季相對穩定，季減0.6個百分點，比2025年第三季有所改善。我們預計PIF在2026年將實現成長。本季個人保險續保價格上漲 9.2%，其中汽車保險價格上漲 6.9%，房屋保險價格上漲 12.3%。雖然價格較上季有所下降，但仍高於我們的長期虧損趨勢。雨傘價格維持堅挺，維持在 20% 左右。鑑於我們整體獲利能力強勁，我們對目前的個人保險費率水準感到滿意。

Now turning to our Core Commercial segment. We posted a current accident year ex‑cat combined ratio of 91.6% for the fourth quarter, improving 2.4 points from the prior-year quarter and achieved 92.6% for the 2025 year. The fourth-quarter ex‑cat current accident year-loss ratio improved 1.5 points from the prior-year quarter to 57.4% as core property continued to perform well and large loss activity remained within expectations. The full-year result of 59.1% was slightly higher compared to 2024, primarily driven by prudently increased loss selections in commercial auto liability and in workers compensation, partially offset by lower losses in commercial multiple peril.

現在我們來看看核心商業板塊。我們公佈的本年度非災難綜合比率為 91.6%（第四季），比去年同期提高了 2.4 個百分點，2025 年的綜合比率達到 92.6%。第四季非巨災當期事故損失率較上年同期改善1.5個百分點至57.4%，核心財產險持續表現良好，重大損失活動仍符合預期。全年業績為 59.1%，略高於 2024 年的業績，主要得益於商業汽車責任險和工傷賠償險的謹慎增加損失選擇，但部分被商業多重風險險的損失減少所抵消。

Core Commercial net written premiums grew 3.6% in the year and 2.5% in the quarter, led by Small Commercial on the back of double‑digit new business growth and healthy retention. Core Commercial segment growth was impacted by Middle Market reinstatement premiums which were receipts in the fourth quarter of 2024 and payments in 2025. Excluding the reinstatement premium impact, the Core Commercial segment delivered fourth-quarter growth of 4.1% inclusive of 2.6% growth in Middle Market. We are very satisfied with what we are seeing in this segment of the market and have confidence in our ability to continue capturing profitable growth opportunities.

核心商業淨保費收入全年增長 3.6%，季度增長 2.5%，主要得益於小型商業業務兩位數的新業務增長和良好的客戶留存率。核心商業部門的成長受到中端市場恢復保費的影響，這些保費在 2024 年第四季收到，在 2025 年支付。剔除複效保費的影響，核心商業業務第四季成長 4.1%，其中中端市場成長 2.6%。我們對該細分市場的發展狀況非常滿意，並有信心繼續抓住獲利成長機會。

Overall retention in Core continues to be solid at 85.3%, up nearly a point from Q3, while price increases including exposure changes moderated only slightly to 9.4%. Price levels remain elevated compared to historical averages, and overall rate continues to be above loss trend.

核心業務的整體留存率持續保持穩健，達到 85.3%，比第三季度增長了近 1 個百分點，而包括風險敞口變化在內的價格上漲幅度僅略微放緩至 9.4%。與歷史平均相比，物價水準仍偏高，整體利率持續高於虧損趨勢。

Moving on to Specialty. The business continues to perform extremely well, posting a current accident year combined ratio ex-CAT of 87.4% for the year and 89.5% for the quarter. The current accident year loss ratio ex-CAT of 50.1% for the year and 51.4% for the quarter were both within our long‑term expectation of low 50s for this business. Fourth-quarter loss experience was largely in line with expectations while the year saw favorability driven by large property losses, which can fluctuate period to period. Liability continued to remain within expectations. We are very pleased with the consistent execution and profitability in our Specialty book and remain confident in our positioning to further capture attractive growth opportunities in our markets.

接下來是專業部分。該業務繼續表現非常出色，本年度（不包括災難性事故）綜合比率為 87.4%，本季為 89.5%。當前事故年度損失率（不包括巨災損失）為 50.1%（年度）和 51.4%（季度），均在我們對該業務長期預期的 50% 左右的範圍內。第四季虧損情況基本上符合預期，而全年有利局面則主要得益於巨額財產損失，但財產損失會隨時間波動。負債情況持續在預期之內。我們對特種產品業務的持續執行和獲利能力非常滿意，並對我們的市場定位充滿信心，以進一步抓住市場中有吸引力的成長機會。

Turning to reinsurance. We successfully completed our multi‑line casualty reinsurance renewal on January 1. The program was placed in a similar manner to last year including the same $2.5 million per risk retention at rate levels slightly below our expectations. As a reminder, our property per risk and catastrophe reinsurance treaties will renew on July 1.

轉向再保險。我們於1月1日成功完成了多險種意外險再保險續保。該計劃的安排方式與去年類似，包括每項風險自留額 250 萬美元，費率水準略低於我們的預期。再次提醒，我們的財產風險再保險和巨災再保險合約將於7月1日續約。

Moving on to a discussion of our investment portfolio, net investment income increased an impressive 24.9% in the fourth quarter and 22% for the year to $454.4 million. This performance reflects growth in our asset base from strong earnings, the benefit of higher reinvestment yields, improving partnership income, and the success of our portfolio repositioning efforts. As we mentioned last quarter, fourth quarter NII also included a benefit of approximately $4 million from the investment of funds from our $500 million debt issuance in August 2025. This benefit is offset by higher interest expense on our debt. The debt level was temporarily elevated following our issuance but will normalize in the first quarter.

接下來討論我們的投資組合，第四季淨投資收益成長了令人矚目的 24.9%，全年成長了 22%，達到 4.544 億美元。這一業績反映了我們資產基礎的成長，這得益於強勁的盈利、更高的再投資收益率、不斷改善的合夥企業收入以及我們投資組合重新定位工作的成功。正如我們在上個季度所提到的，第四季淨利息收入還包括來自我們在 2025 年 8 月發行的 5 億美元債務資金的投資收益，約 400 萬美元。這項收益會被我們債務利息支出增加所抵銷。發行債券後，債務水準暫時升高，但將在第一季恢復正常。

We repaid approximately $62 million of senior notes that matured in October 2025 and also called $375 million of senior notes at par, which were retired in January, originally set to mature in April. Our investment portfolio continues to be a key pillar of our diversified earnings stream. It is conservatively positioned, broadly diversified across sectors, and is not overexposed to any single asset class or industry sector.

我們償還了約 6,200 萬美元的 2025 年 10 月到期的優先票據，並按面額贖回了 3.75 億美元的優先票據，這些票據已於 1 月註銷，原定於 4 月到期。我們的投資組合仍然是我們多元化收入來源的關鍵支柱。該基金投資策略保守，廣泛分散於各行業，並未過度集中於任何單一資產類別或產業。

Our limited exposure to variable rate instruments also continues to provide stability in our investment income and reduces reinvestment risk as short‑term rates decline. Our fixed maturity portfolio continues to carry a weighted average rating of A+ with 95% of holdings investment grade. Portfolio duration excluding cash remained relatively stable at approximately 4.3 years, consistent with our long‑term asset liability alignment approach.

我們對浮動利率工具的有限投資也繼續為我們的投資收益提供穩定性，並在短期利率下降時降低再投資風險。我們的固定期限投資組合繼續保持 A+ 的加權平均評級，其中 95% 的持股為投資等級。不計現金的投資組合久期保持相對穩定，約 4.3 年，這與我們的長期資產負債匹配策略一致。

Moving on to our equity and capital position, our book value increased approximately 27% in 2025, ending the year at $100.90 driven by strong earnings in the year and an improved unrealized loss position on invested assets. Excluding unrealized, book value increased approximately 15% for the year to $104.21. In December, we raised our quarterly dividend by 5.6% to $0.95 per share, marking the 21st consecutive year we have increased our dividend, underscoring the durability of our enterprise, our commitment to delivering shareholder value, and the confidence we have in the company’s future.

接下來談談我們的權益和資本狀況，由於當年強勁的盈利和投資資產未實現虧損狀況的改善，我們的賬面價值在 2025 年增長了約 27%，年底達到 100.90 美元。不計未實現收益，帳面價值本年度成長約 15%，達 104.21 美元。 12 月，我們將季度股息提高 5.6%，至每股 0.95 美元，這標誌著我們連續第 21 年提高股息，凸顯了我們企業的穩健性、我們對股東價值的承諾以及我們對公司未來的信心。

We also continued to be active in share buybacks, repurchasing approximately 307,000 shares, totaling $55 million in the fourth quarter and approximately 754,000 shares totaling $130 million during 2025. Additionally, we repurchased approximately $44 million worth of shares through January 30. We remain dedicated to responsible capital management and prioritizing shareholder value.

我們也繼續積極進行股票回購，第四季回購了約 307,000 股，總計 5,500 萬美元，2025 年將回購約 754,000 股，總計 1.3 億美元。此外，截至 1 月 30 日，我們回購了價值約 4,400 萬美元的股票。我們始終致力於負責任的資本管理，並將股東價值放在首位。

Turning to our annual guidance for 2026. We expect overall consolidated net written premium growth to accelerate in 2026 to mid-single‑digit growth. We expect net investment income growth in the mid to upper single digits compared to 2025. Our expense ratio for 2026 is expected to be 30.3%. However, we want to let you know, we will not be giving specific expense ratio guidance in future years.

接下來是我們的2026年年度業績指引。我們預期 2026 年整體合併淨保費收入成長將加速至個位數中段成長。我們預計淨投資收益將比 2025 年實現中高個位數成長。我們預期 2026 年的費用率為 30.3%。但是，我們想告知各位，未來幾年我們將不會提供具體的費用率指引。

We will continue to be disciplined financial managers, but we believe the combined ratio overall should really be the focus that we guide to. The combined ratio excluding catastrophes should be in the range of 88% to 89%, an improvement from our 2025 guidance. Our CAT load for the year is 6.5% consistent with our guidance for 2025, although cat losses for 2025 came in below our expectations and we continue to observe benefits from our deductible and terms and conditions changes, we believe holding our CAT load consistent for now is prudent given the volatility of this income statement line and evolving weather patterns. Our CAT load for the first quarter is 6.1%.

我們將繼續做嚴謹的財務管理者，但我們認為，綜合比率才是我們應該真正關注的重點。不包括災害在內的綜合比率應在 88% 至 89% 之間，比我們 2025 年的預期有所提高。我們今年的巨災費用佔比為 6.5%，與我們對 2025 年的指導一致。儘管 2025 年的巨災損失低於我們的預期，並且我們繼續從免賠額和條款及條件的變化中受益，但考慮到該損益表項目的波動性和不斷變化的天氣模式，我們認為目前保持巨災費用佔比不變是審慎的。第一季我們的CAT負荷率為6.1%。

To wrap up, we are beginning 2026 in a position of strength and are extremely well positioned to deliver on our goals. Our broad and resilient portfolio, diversified earnings stream, and talented team are the foundation that will allow us to sustain this performance in 2026 and beyond. The combination of underwriting performance and the strong investment portfolio puts Hanover in a terrific place.

總而言之，我們以強勁的勢頭開啟了 2026 年，並已做好充分準備實現我們的目標。我們廣泛而穩健的投資組合、多元化的收益來源以及優秀的團隊是我們能夠在 2026 年及以後保持這一業績的基礎。承保業績和強大的投資組合相結合，使漢諾威處於非常有利的地位。

With that, we are ready to open the line for questions. Operator?

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Jeff, in your opening comments, you talked about adjusting the current year for auto BI severity. I assume you were referring to Personal Auto there given what we see in the quarter. So I guess -- and you also, of course, mentioned the Core Commercial accident and loss ratio up a bit given the activity you took earlier in the year. We didn't see that activity for Core Commercial this quarter. I don't think we did.

Jeff，你在開場白中提到要調整當前年份的自動 BI 嚴重程度。根據本季的情況來看，我猜你指的是個人汽車保險業務。所以我想——當然，您也提到了鑑於您今年早些時候開展的業務活動，核心商業事故和損失率略有上升。本季我們沒有看到核心商業領域出現此類活動。我覺得我們沒有做到。

I guess, does that mean that the pressure you felt from those casualty lines in Core Commercial that you felt less of a need to do so. I mean, do you think things are kind of easing there?

我猜，這是否意味著，你感受到來自核心商業保險事故賠償線的壓力，讓你覺得沒有必要再這樣做了？我的意思是，你覺得那裡的情況是不是有所緩和？

So your first question, yes, it was PL Auto liability that we were raising picks in the fourth quarter. With respect to Core Commercial Auto, we didn't see a whole heck of a lot this particular quarter. It has been a relatively quiet quarter there, but we've been mentioning it all year long, and we've been increasing our IBNR reserves for Auto largely for -- solely really for 2023 and '24 and '25. Years before that are quite mature, and I think we leave 2025 with the strongest balance sheet that we've ever had.

所以對於你的第一個問題，是的，我們在第四季增加買入的股票是PL Auto的負債股。就核心商用汽車業務而言，本季我們並沒有看到太多實質進展。那個季度相對平靜，但我們全年都在提及此事，而且我們一直在增加汽車行業的 IBNR 準備金，主要是為了——實際上僅僅是為了 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年。在此之前的幾年已經相當成熟，我認為到 2025 年，我們將擁有有史以來最強勁的資產負債表。

Maybe more of a higher level question maybe for Jack. As we get into a phase for the overall industry where pricing starts to come off a little bit and maybe more so as the year progresses, Jeff, can you -- or maybe Jack or Dick, can you talk about any changes you might make to how you approach your agency partners? I guess specifically, do you talk to them more from management team, do they hear from you more, do they hear from you less, does your message change or what you say to them change as we get into a softer environment?

或許這個問題對傑克來說更有意義。隨著整個行業進入價格開始略微下降的階段，而且隨著時間的推移，價格下降的幅度可能會更大，傑夫，你——或者傑克或迪克，你們能否談談你們在與代理合作夥伴的合作方式上可能會做出哪些改變？具體來說，我想問的是，身為管理團隊，你們和他們溝通的次數是否更多了？他們是否聽到更多你們的聲音了？還是你們的聲音減少了？隨著我們進入一個更輕鬆的環境，你們傳遞的訊息或你們對他們說的話是否會改變？

I will say a few words here, and I'm sure Dick can chime in also. I think the dialogue that we're having with the top agents in the country is accelerating for a number of reasons. They are obviously becoming more strategic and operationally focused, and they are increasingly trying to work with carriers that can help them with their evolving operating models. So there's a lot of dialogue going on across our franchise, and as you know, our partner strategy really lends itself to this type of dialogue, including some great analytical tools that help agents as they're trying to become more efficient and more effective.

我在這裡說幾句，我相信迪克也可以補充幾句。我認為，由於多種原因，我們與全國頂尖經紀人之間的對話正在加速進行。他們顯然變得更加註重策略和運營，並且越來越傾向於與能夠幫助他們不斷改進營運模式的營運商合作。因此，我們整個特許經營體系內正在進行大量的對話，正如您所知，我們的合作夥伴策略非常適合這種類型的對話，其中包括一些很棒的分析工具，可以幫助經紀人提高效率和效力。

So from a pricing standpoint, I wouldn't say that that alone is changing our dialogue at the top of the house. What becomes really important is that our field teams and our underwriters are very proactive about which accounts are coming up, when, and how we want to approach those things? So we're being respectful of the client relationships that they have, but also at the same time not acquiescing to an overall market condition. Each account needs to be looked at one account at a time.

所以從定價的角度來看，我不會說單憑這一點就能改變我們高層的對話。真正重要的是，我們的現場團隊和承保人要積極主動地了解哪些客戶即將出現、何時出現以及我們希望如何處理這些客戶？因此，我們既尊重客戶關係，同時也不屈服於整體市場狀況。每個帳戶都需要逐一檢視。

So Dick, you want to supplement that?

迪克，你想補充一下嗎？

I like the way you came at this question, Mike, are doing anything differently or if we have to lean in differently? And I'd say, yeah, we adjust our activity and specifically our talk track with our agents. More time spent on helping them understand their economics and their behaviors in this kind of marketplace, watching the trends and the leading indicators, really focus on the benefits of keeping accounts stitched together in a bundled way because when you separate those out and you have perhaps two shopping opportunities, that creates issues for them in the future with the potential risk to retention.

麥克，我喜歡你回答這個問題的方式，我們是否採取了不同的做法，或者是否需要調整策略？是的，我們會調整我們的活動，特別是與經紀人的談話方式。多花點時間幫助他們了解他們在這種市場中的經濟狀況和行為，觀察趨勢和領先指標，真正關注將帳戶捆綁在一起的好處，因為如果將這些帳戶分開，他們可能只有兩個購物機會，這會在未來給他們帶來問題，並可能造成客戶留存風險。

So we spend a lot of time talking about that, the benefits of not only bundled accounts, but then in our case, we have a common effective date which is really powerful because both of those policies renew on the same date. So we try to put data in front of them for their own book and for the industry and our team. You heard me say this before, it's a superpower of ours that we bring data and we help agents understand their own situation. So that's what I would add to Jack’s response.

所以我們花了很多時間討論這個問題，不僅討論捆綁帳戶的好處，而且就我們而言，我們還有一個共同的生效日期，這非常強大，因為這兩份保單都在同一天續保。因此，我們努力將數據呈現給他們，用於他們自己的書籍、行業以及我們自己的團隊。你之前聽我說過，我們的超能力在於我們能夠提供數據，幫助經紀人了解自己的處境。這就是我對傑克的回答的補充。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

Maybe on Personal Lines specifically, if you can tease out directionally what the non‑cat property benefit was in Home. I think there was a benefit for the year just so we can better understand the run rate. You guys all have obviously done an excellent job improving margins there. And just maybe higher level overall Personal Lines, I saw the comment in your deck about expecting policies (inaudible) to grow a bit. But I guess, what's the North Star in the current competitive environment? Would it be very low single‑digit PIF growth? Any comment there would be helpful.

或許可以具體到個人保險方面，如果你能從方向上梳理出家庭保險中非貓類財產福利是什麼的話。我認為今年這樣做是有益的，這樣我們就能更了解運行率。你們顯然在提高利潤率方面做得非常出色。或許更高層次的個人保險業務，我看到你在你的簡報中提到預計保單（聽不清楚）會有所成長。但我想說，在當前競爭激烈的環境下，我們的方向是什麼？PIF成長率會是極低的個位數嗎？任何評論都將不勝感激。

It’s Jeff. I will start on the loss ratio. A lot of moving pieces with respect to Home. First off, we're getting price above loss trend, which is really earning in and being powerful for us. But you also have issues like the benefit of the deductibles and even some consumer behavior. Clearly, favorable weather in 2025 and particularly in the fourth quarter is having a healthy benefit.

是傑夫。我先從損失率說起。關於家庭，有很多變數。首先，我們獲得了高於虧損趨勢的價格，這對我們來說真的很有利，而且很有力量。但你也會遇到一些問題，例如免賠額的好處，甚至還有一些消費者的行為。顯然，2025 年，特別是第四季的有利天氣將帶來良好的效益。

So I'm reluctant to spike that out even though we've tried to estimate it because it's too raw. I don't have enough confidence in it, but I think it would be wise to assume that the 47.5% that we did for the year will need to come up a little bit because of that particular benefit.

所以，儘管我們已經嘗試估算，但我仍然不願意輕易否定它，因為它還不夠準確。我對此沒有足夠的信心，但我認為明智的做法是假設，由於這項特殊優惠，我們今年實現的 47.5% 的成長率需要略有提高。

Right, and I'll take the question on the North Star for Personal Lines. We've really been maniacally focused on our North Star in Personal Lines which is to be the best market in the IA channel for preferred accounts, so I do think of our future strengthening that strength, growing thoughtfully while achieving our diversification objectives not only across states but within states where we have a lot of market share, pushing ourselves continuously upstream into the Prestige account space, the $750,000 to $3 million space.

好的，我將回答關於個人保險業務的「北極星」的問題。我們一直非常專注於個人保險業務的北極星目標，那就是成為IA通路中優質客戶的最佳市場。因此，我認為我們未來的發展方向是鞏固這一優勢，穩步增長，同時實現多元化目標，不僅要跨州擴張，還要在我們擁有較大市場份額的州內擴張，不斷向上游拓展至尊貴客戶領域，即75萬美元至300萬美元的保費區間。

And as you've seen, importantly, continue to invest in the account solution, so classic cars, scheduled items, things like that. So we continue to be focused on that. I like a mid single‑digit growth objective into the future. I think that's a good place to be. And as prices come down to more rational levels, that's always been our objective.

正如你所看到的，重要的是要繼續投資帳戶解決方案，例如經典汽車、定期專案等等。所以我們會繼續專注於此。我希望未來能維持個位數中等水準的成長目標。我覺得那是個好地方。而價格回落到更合理的水平，一直是我們的目標。

Okay, sounds good. My follow‑up, Jeff, a lot of commentary helpful on the reinstatement premiums. Can you just remind us what drove the reinstatement premiums? Is that cat or casualty?

好的，沒問題。我的後續回覆是，Jeff，關於恢復保費有很多有用的評論。您能否提醒我們一下，是什麼因素導致了複效保費的上漲？那是貓還是傷者？

Sure. So again with reinstatement premium, we had some incoming reinstatement premium on reserve takedown in fourth quarter and some outgoing on an increased reserve for reinsurance. It was not cat. It was generally property -- large property loss exposure in the property per risk program.

當然。所以，關於複效保費，我們在第四季因準備金減少而有一些複效保費收入，同時由於再保險準備金增加而有一些複效保費支出。那不是貓。通常情況下，這是財產損失——財產風險計劃中存在較大的財產損失風險。

Okay, great. And I guess lastly, just thinking higher level about lawsuit inflation in the United States, and I'm cognizant of the comments you made on Personal Auto. But it looks like you guys have been adding some conservatism to your loss picks throughout the year in Commercial. I guess, we'll see some data -- the stat data in a month or so. But any changes in your view of what you're seeing around the industry trend‑wise in terms of lawsuit inflation? Is it stabilizing at high levels, still maybe increasing, decreasing?

好的，太好了。最後，我想從更高的層面思考美國的訴訟膨脹問題，我也注意到了你對個人汽車保險的評論。但看起來你們在商業領域全年都在虧損的預測上採取了一些保守策略。我想，大概一個月左右我們就能看到一些數據──統計數據。但就訴訟數量激增而言，您對產業趨勢的看法是否有所改變？目前是穩定在高位，還是仍在上升或下降？

This is Jack. I think overall what we're witnessing now is that the liability severity trends are presenting themselves in a pretty mature way. Will the severity levels continue to go up over time? Possible, but I think maturing might be a good word right now because there are not too many severe injuries that don't include a lawyer and lawyer representation and the courts are obviously in full gear. So I think there is a little bit of leveling out in terms of the environment itself, and I think the way we have tried to deal with it, as you referenced, is make sure that we have the right claim strategies and we're going at each individual claim in an appropriate way, but also to continue to be very prudent with our reserving.

這是傑克。我認為我們現在看到的總體趨勢是，責任嚴重程度的趨勢正以相當成熟的方式呈現。隨著時間的推移，病情嚴重程度會持續上升嗎？有可能，但我認為現在用「成熟」這個詞可能比較合適，因為現在很少有嚴重的傷情不涉及律師和律師代理，而且法院顯然已經全面運作起來了。所以我認為環境本身已經趨於穩定，而且我認為我們應對這種情況的方式，正如您所提到的，是確保我們擁有正確的索賠策略，並以適當的方式處理每一項索賠，同時也要繼續在準備金方面保持非常謹慎的態度。

I think we have done our best to add to IBNR levels, to look at the individual trends by subline, and make sure that we're not one of the companies that gets behind. And so I have a high level of confidence, as does Jeff, in our reserve position, but also our claim strategies in this litigious environment.

我認為我們已經盡最大努力提高 IBNR 水平，按子產品線分析各個趨勢，並確保我們不會成為落後的公司之一。因此，我和傑夫一樣，對我們的儲備金地位以及在這種訴訟環境下的索賠策略都充滿信心。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

I was hoping you could give us a little bit more elaboration on the competitive environment in Middle Market Commercial, which seems to be heating up. I think your investors fear that what we have seen in the large account pushes back down into Middle Market. What's your perspective today on that?

我希望您能更詳細地介紹中端商業市場的競爭環境，這個市場似乎變得越來越激烈。我認為你們的投資人擔心，我們在大帳戶中看到的現象會反過來影響中端市場。你現在對此有何看法？

This is Jack. I will get us started here. I would say that there is no doubt that on the larger property schedules and in certain sectors there has been some heightened competition. But I would tell you at the same time, there are particular areas and I would spike out something like the human services sector where they have real challenges in terms of market access, particularly in the professional liability and the sexual abuse and molestation lines and getting excess limits. So there's parts of the Middle Market sector particularly on the liability side that are definitely on the front end of a firming market. And if I had a crystal ball, I would probably say that that will continue that, at some point in time, the property market will level off and the liability pricing will steal the headlines.

這是傑克。我來拋磚引玉。毫無疑問，在大型房地產項目和某些領域，競爭已經加劇。但同時，我也要指出，在某些特定領域，例如人力服務業，他們在市場准入方面面臨著真正的挑戰，尤其是在職業責任險、性虐待和性騷擾險以及獲得超額賠償限額方面。因此，中端市場領域，特別是負債方面的某些部分，肯定處於市場走強的前沿。如果我能預知未來，我可能會說，這種情況還會持續下去，在某個時候，房地產市場會趨於平穩，而負債定價將成為新聞頭條。

But in the meantime, being a good account player, primarily playing on the low to mid‑size accounts and not staying out of the upper Middle Market is serving us extremely well. And I think we're poised eventually to be even more assertive as the market starts to firm hopefully sometime this year.

但同時，做一個優秀的帳戶玩家，主要在中低規模帳戶上進行遊戲，並且不遠離中高端市場，這對我們非常有利。我認為，隨著市場預計在今年某個時候開始走強，我們最終將變得更加自信。

And maybe a different question. Longer term, I think capacity management has been an effort. The 6.5% looks a lot like a CAT load for next year, looks like it has been in the past, maybe more of a stable number. Are you thinking about trying to move your property exposure to have less cat in the future, or is this kind of the right level through a broadly thought way?

或許可以問另一個問題。從長遠來看，我認為產能管理一直是一項挑戰。6.5% 看起來很像明年 CAT 的負荷，似乎過去也是如此，也許會是一個更穩定的數字。您是考慮轉移房產風險以減少未來貓患，還是從整體上考慮後認為目前的水平比較合適？

Well, I think our objective is to really focus on earnings volatility. And so I can go there because the more we can address any micro concentrations and then look at the pricing and terms and conditions across the portfolio, then I don't think there's a magic number that we're shooting for. I think all of that adds up to us over time trying to drive the CAT load of the organization down. But the environment will dictate some of that.

我認為我們的目標是真正專注於獲利波動性。所以我可以去那裡，因為我們越能解決任何微觀集中問題，然後審視整個投資組合的定價、條款和條件，我認為就沒有一個我們想要達到的神奇數字了。我認為所有這些因素加起來，最終都是為了降低組織的 CAT 負荷。但環境將在一定程度上決定這一點。

And as you've seen, severe convective storms have driven some CAT loads up in some of our competitors. So we're trying to be very thoughtful about making continued meaningful progress in our cat management and our property aggregate management, but still be relatively conservative in terms of how we model that out and choose our CAT loads.

正如你所看到的，強烈的對流風暴導致我們的一些競爭對手的 CAT 負載增加。因此，我們努力認真思考如何在貓咪管理和物業綜合管理方面取得持續有意義的進展，但在建模和選擇貓咪負荷方面仍然保持相對保守的態度。

Yeah, Paul, severe convective storm is the area that has given us some issue over the last several years with that volatility. And we've done a tremendous amount of work on thinning out the aggregations, putting in place the deductibles for the terms and conditions, and making it so those matters are less severe, getting lots of rate.

是的，保羅，強對流風暴是過去幾年給我們帶來一些問題的因素，因為它會導致天氣波動。我們已經做了大量工作來減少合併，為條款和條件設定免賠額，使這些問題不那麼嚴重，從而獲得很多費率。

And then also, particularly in the Commercial space, putting in place a new technology that is having a tremendously beneficial impact on limiting those cats where people can have devices that will let them know if there's either excessive cold temperatures or some water issues with pipes, and that's a real benefit for us.

此外，尤其是在商業領域，一項新技術的引入對限制貓的數量產生了巨大的積極影響，人們可以使用相關設備來了解是否存在過冷的溫度或管道漏水等問題，這對我們來說是一個真正的好處。

Rowland Mayor, RBC Capital Markets.

羅蘭‧梅奧，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I wanted to quickly get ahead of no longer getting expense ratio guide in 2027. Is the long‑term goal there still to show year‑over‑year improvement. And I guess on top of that, the tech investments, are those neutral to the expense ratio right now? Are efficiency gains coming in, or is that still adding some pressure?

我想盡快做好準備，以免在 2027 年後就無法再獲得費用比率指南。長期目標是否仍是實現逐年進步？除此之外，我想問的是，科技投資目前對費用率的影響是中性的嗎？效率是否有所提高，還是仍會帶來一些壓力？

This is Jack. Listen, I think what you should know is that we intend to be very disciplined from an expense standpoint and that we believe we have expense leverage as we grow the organization. And so I'll let Jeff speak to kind of a rationale going forward on guidance, but I think you should expect us to scale each of our businesses. But obviously, the mix, our expense quotient is different across each of those businesses. And I would say, from an investment standpoint in technology and data and analytics, the philosophy of the firm is that we are spending more, but we tend to do that by reducing some expenses in other areas as opposed to trying to drag that out of earnings. And I think the team has been very disciplined in that regard to find savings to fund the additional investments that are required for our future.

這是傑克。聽著，我認為你應該知道的是，我們打算在支出方面嚴格控制，而且我們相信，隨著公司的發展，我們在支出方面擁有很大的優勢。因此，我會讓傑夫來談談未來發展方向的理由，但我認為你們應該期待我們擴大旗下各項業務的規模。但很顯然，各個業務的組成和支出比例都不一樣。從技術、數據和分析的投資角度來看，公司的理念是，我們雖然增加了支出，但我們傾向於透過減少其他領域的一些開支來實現這一點，而不是試圖從收益中挪用這些支出。我認為團隊在這方面一直非常自律，努力節省開支，為我們未來所需的額外投資提供資金。

Yeah, I don't think that you should interpret our moving away from guidance is in any way lacking financial or expense management discipline. To the contrary, we're still every bit as disciplined as we always have. But a year like we've had this year, where the loss ratio is -- or the overall combined ratio is much lower than what we guided to, with or without cat, it causes us to have an expense ratio elevation and just didn't want to really be slavish toward reporting against it or being held to it.

是的，我不認為你應該把我們不再遵循指導原則解讀為我們在財務或費用管理方面缺乏紀律。恰恰相反，我們依然像以往一樣自律。但像今年這樣的一年，損失率——或者說整體綜合比率遠低於我們預期的水平（無論是否考慮巨災），這導致我們的費用率上升，我們不想真的為了迎合報告要求或被要求遵守這一規定而受其約束。

Having said all that, there is an awful lot going on with expenses. We have expense needs and demands to make investments in technology, data analytics, and AI in a variety of different places, and we're making those investments in a way where we'll spend a little money before we'll get the benefits of that, which will come. But we're funding that. And so we have a very active process of looking at our expenses across the organization and creating the capacity that's needed to be able to make those investments.

說了這麼多，開銷方面確實有很多事情要處理。我們在技術、數據分析和人工智慧等領域有支出需求和投資要求，而且我們正在以一種先投入一些資金，然後才能獲得收益的方式來進行這些投資，而收益終將到來。但我們正在為此提供資金。因此，我們積極審視整個組織的各項支出，並創造必要的能力來進行這些投資。

That's super helpful, and I wanted to quickly ask on the repurchase volumes, and they've been steadily walking up the past few quarters and even the January number looked like the biggest probably month you’ve had in a very long time. Can you walk through the approach there and just how we should be thinking about your ability to buy back stock and maybe capital needed for growth needs?

這非常有幫助，我想快速問一下回購量，過去幾季回購量一直在穩步上升，甚至一月份的數字看起來可能是你們很長一段時間以來最高的。您能否詳細說明一下具體方法，以及我們應該如何看待您回購股票的能力，以及您可能需要的成長資金？

Yeah, we bought back, as you said, $100 million of stock in the last four months which is a healthy dose. With growth being a little bit lower in the last 12 months and the earnings and profits being super strong, we're building a lot of capital as you can imagine. It ends up being a high‑class problem.

是的，正如你所說，我們在過去四個月裡回購了價值 1 億美元的股票，這是一個相當可觀的規模。過去 12 個月的成長速度略有放緩，但收益和利潤卻非常強勁，因此正如您所想，我們正在累積大量資本。這最終變成了一個上流社會的問題。

And we've always been good stewards of capital. We've got choices. Growth is always at the top of the list, continuing buybacks of course, dividends. We can consider things about reinsurance, perhaps even small inorganic or renewal rights deals. But we'll be balanced, Rowland, as to how we use capital, and I suspect the stock buyback will continue to play a meaningful role.

我們一直以來都是資金的良好管理者。我們有多種選擇。成長始終是重中之重，當然還有持續的股票回購和分紅。我們可以考慮再保險方面的事宜，或許還可以考慮一些小型的非有機或續保權交易。但羅蘭，我們會平衡地使用資本，我懷疑股票回購將繼續發揮重要作用。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

Two quick questions on the Personal Lines if I can. First, at least the third quarter of this year, we're seeing most Personal Lines coverage claim frequency decline. I'm wondering whether that broad picture matches what you are seeing in your preferred market.

請問我可以快速問兩個關於個人保險方面的問題嗎？首先，至少在今年第三季度，我們看到大多數個人保險理賠頻率都在下降。我想知道這種大方向是否與您在目標市場中看到的情況相符。

Yeah, yes, definitely. We're seeing the frequency on the property coverages, the Auto, and the Homeowners side of things. And certainly, some of that is related to customer behavior, we believe. Some of it is related to the terms and conditions that we put in place, certainly on the Home side, and the weather, ex-CAT weather.

是的，當然。我們看到財產保險、汽車保險和房屋保險方面的事故發生頻率較高。當然，我們認為，其中一些與顧客行為有關。其中一些與我們制定的條款和條件有關，尤其是在主隊方面，還有天氣，特別是 CAT 天氣。

And of course, as you know, on the Auto side, the safety technology that is being implemented in cars as they roll off the conveyor belt and more of those on the streets and highways is definitely having an impact on the number of accidents and frequency being down.

當然，如您所知，在汽車方面，隨著汽車從生產線下線，越來越多的汽車在街道和高速公路上行駛，安全技術的應用無疑對降低事故數量和頻率產生了影響。

Okay, perfect. That's very helpful. When we look forward to the growth in the new states, I am assuming the 11 states that Jack called out, we're going to continue to pursue growth there. Should we anticipate some level of new business penalty or higher initial loss ratios that we are going to frame from the fact that there's going to be hopefully an uptick in new business?

好的，完美。那很有幫助。展望未來，在傑克提到的 11 個州，我們將繼續追求在這些州的成長。我們是否應該預料到，由於新業務預計會成長，因此會出現一定程度的新業務罰款或更高的初始損失率？

This is Jack. I will say a couple of words on that. These are existing states that we believe are reaching a level of maturity and benefiting from the hard market that we came out. That accelerated growth can come through at a very accretive level, so I would not think about it in a traditional way with new business penalty. Frankly, we've been through an era where new business pricing was matching renewal pricing for some time, so we are not still at a traditional gap of new to renewal pricing.

這是傑克。我對此想說幾句。我們認為，這些現有州正在達到一定的成熟水平，並受益於我們所經歷的嚴峻市場環境。這種加速成長可以帶來非常可觀的收益，所以我不會用傳統的新業務罰款方式來考慮它。坦白說，我們已經經歷了一段時間新業務定價與續約定價一致的時期，所以我們現在不再處於新業務定價與續約定價之間存在傳統差距的狀態。

So Dick, I don't --

所以迪克，我不知道--

Yeah. We've never been at a more adequate price level as you look across all of our states that do business. So we feel good about it.

是的。縱觀我們所有開展業務的州，我們的價格水平從未如此合理。所以我們對此感到很滿意。

And needless to say, as we diversify from a capital allocation perspective and just an overall performance, we think it will help us because we have had to adjust CAT loads, and we've had to think about weather differently. And so spreading that risk better, particularly on the homeowner side is having an additional positive impact.

不言而喻，從資本配置和整體績效的角度來看，隨著我們實現多元化，我們認為這將對我們有所幫助，因為我們不得不調整 CAT 負荷，而且我們必須以不同的方式考慮天氣因素。因此，更好地分散風險，尤其是在房主方面，會產生額外的正面影響。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

Great. Just a quick follow-up. Does the -- is the winter storm recently in 1Q, is that big enough to -- we should talked about it? And is it -- if so, is it in the guide for '26?

偉大的。再補充一點。——是第一季發生的冬季風暴嗎？它規模夠大嗎？ ——我們該討論一下嗎？如果是的話，它在 2026 年的指南中嗎？

So Fern represented most of our January CATs. That's winter storm Fern. And based on what we're seeing, there's no reason to modify our first-quarter CAT estimate at 6.1%, Mike.

所以，Fern 代表了我們一月份的大部分 CAT。那是冬季風暴弗恩。根據我們目前所看到的，沒有理由修改我們對第一季 CAT 成長率 6.1% 的預期，麥克。

Daniel Lee, Morgan Stanley.

丹尼爾李，摩根士丹利。

My first question is on the Specialty segment. I was just curious to hear just more details on competitive dynamics. I know you guys mentioned just competitive pressure across the Property Lines. And yeah, maybe with management liability and pricing stabilization across for professional and executive lines, how are you guys thinking about the competitive dynamics going forward for that subsegment?

我的第一個問題是關於專業領域的。我只是好奇想了解更多關於競爭格局的細節。我知道你們提到了不同物業之間的競爭壓力。是的，隨著管理責任和專業及高階主管產品線的價格穩定，你們如何看待該細分市場未來的競爭格局？

I'll take that. It's Bryan Salvatore. And yes, to your point, we do see increased competition across the property lines, and we are reacting to that. We're really fortunate to have a very diversified portfolio. And the things that you mentioned, for example, management liability, really, pleased with the progress we saw in the fourth quarter, right? Yes, the market has stabilized. But that, along with the investments we've made in operating model efficiency, improving turnaround, we saw double-digit growth in the fourth quarter for management liability, and we see that continuing.

我接受。他是布萊恩·薩爾瓦托。是的，正如您所說，我們確實看到各個房地產領域的競爭日益激烈，我們正在對此做出應對。我們非常幸運地擁有非常多元化的投資組合。例如，您提到的管理責任問題，我們對第四季度的進展非常滿意，對吧？是的，市場已經穩定下來了。但是，加上我們在營運模式效率和改善週轉方面的投資，我們在第四季度實現了管理負債兩位數的成長，而且我們認為這種成長勢頭還會持續下去。

And we also saw improvement in professional liability from the investments we've made there. So that diversified portfolio for us gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to appropriately grow in 2026 even in this environment.

我們也看到，由於我們在該領域的投資，職業責任方面也得到了改善。因此，這種多元化的投資組合讓我們對2026年在當前環境中實現適當成長的能力充滿信心。

So I guess my follow-up is, I'm also curious on just the overall E&S demand that you guys are seeing out there. Is there still more robust submission flows that are coming in for E&S? Or do you guys see that subsiding as a little bit of the modern markets start to open up? Just curious.

所以我想問的是，我也很好奇你們目前看到的E&S整體需求狀況。目前是否還有更完善的E&S申請流程？或者你們認為隨著現代市場逐步開放，這種情況會逐漸緩解嗎？只是好奇而已。

Yeah. So I'll react to that, too. We have not seen any abatement in the activity in our E&S book. It grew double‑digits throughout the year. It grew double‑digits in the fourth quarter. The submission volume is quite high, and we do have a couple of benefits.

是的。所以，我也會對此作出回應。我們的E&S帳簿上的活動沒有出現任何減少的跡象。全年保持兩位數成長。第四季實現了兩位數的成長。投稿數量相當高，我們也因此獲得了一些好處。

One is where we are positioned, which is middle to smaller E&S, and so the competition there is not as severe as you might see in some other places. Also, we have a real nice mix now of retail-placed E&S business and wholesale placed, so we have different avenues, different access to opportunities. And so we continue to see that business growing for us in a nice healthy way.

一方面是我們所處的市場定位，我們屬於中小型環境與社會領域，因此那裡的競爭不像其他一些地方那麼激烈。此外，我們現在零售通路的 E&S 業務和批發通路的組合也相當不錯，因此我們有不同的通路，不同的機會取得途徑。因此，我們看到這項業務繼續以良好的健康方式成長。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Oksana Lukasheva for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給奧克薩娜·盧卡舍娃，請她作閉幕致詞。

Thank you, everyone, for dialing in today. We are looking forward to talking to you next quarter.

謝謝大家今天撥入電話。我們期待下季與您洽談。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議到此結束。感謝各位蒞臨今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線了。