Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Hanover Insurance Group's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jason, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加漢諾威保險集團第一季度收益電話會議。我叫傑森，我將擔任今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Oksana Lukasheva. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給奧克薩娜·盧卡舍娃。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our quarterly conference call. We will begin today's call with prepared remarks from Jack Roche, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Farber, our Chief Financial Officer. Available to answer your questions after our prepared remarks are Dick Lavey, President of Agency Markets; and Bryan Salvatore, President of Specialty Lines. Before I turn the call over to Jack, let me note that our earnings press release, financial supplement and a complete slide presentation for today's call are available in the Investors section of our website at www.hanover.com. After presentation, we will answer questions in the Q&A session.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的季度電話會議。我們將以我們的總裁兼首席執行官傑克·羅奇 (Jack Roche) 準備好的講話開始今天的電話會議；和我們的首席財務官傑夫法伯。在我們準備好發言後，Agency Markets 總裁 Dick Lavey 可以回答您的問題。以及專線公司總裁 Bryan Salvatore。在我將電話轉交給傑克之前，請允許我指出，我們的收益新聞稿、財務補充和今天電話會議的完整幻燈片演示文稿可在我們網站 www.hanover.com 的投資者部分中找到。演講結束後，我們將在問答環節回答問題。

Our prepared remarks in responses to your questions today, other than statements of historical fact, include forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can relate to, among other things, our outlook, catastrophe load, economic conditions and related effects including inflation, supply chain disruption, potential recessionary impacts, and evolving insurance behavior.

我們今天為回答您的問題而準備的評論，除了歷史事實的陳述外，還包括根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述可能與我們的前景、災難負荷、經濟狀況和相關影響，包括通貨膨脹、供應鏈中斷、潛在的衰退影響和不斷變化的保險行為。

These statements can also relate to other risks and uncertainties such as severe weather and catastrophes that could affect the company's performance and/or cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. We caution you with respect to reliance on forward-looking statements, and in this respect, refer you to the forward-looking statements section in our press release, presentation deck and our filings with the SEC.

這些陳述還可能涉及其他風險和不確定性，例如惡劣天氣和災難，這些風險和不確定性可能會影響公司的業績和/或導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異。我們提醒您不要依賴前瞻性陳述，在這方面，請您參閱我們的新聞稿、演示文稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的前瞻性陳述部分。

Today's discussion will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures such as operating income and accident year loss and combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, among others. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP measure on a historical basis can be found in the press release, the press release, the slide presentation, or the financial supplement, which are posted on our website, as I mentioned earlier.

今天的討論還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如營業收入和事故年損失以及綜合比率（不包括災難）等。正如我之前提到的，這些非公認會計原則財務指標與歷史上最接近的公認會計原則指標的調節可以在我們網站上發布的新聞稿、新聞稿、幻燈片演示或財務補充中找到。 。

With those comments, I will turn the call over to Jack.

有了這些評論，我會將電話轉給傑克。

Thank you, Oksana, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with an overview of our first quarter results, a discussion of the accelerated steps we are taking to address the risks posed by extreme weather events, as well as an update on the progress we are making towards our margin recapture plan. I will conclude my remarks with an update on our agency relationships and key takeaways from our recent annual agency conference. Jeff will review our financial and operating results in more detail, and then we will open the line for your questions.

謝謝奧克薩娜，大家早上好。我將首先概述我們第一季度的業績，討論我們為解決極端天氣事件帶來的風險而採取的加速措施，以及我們在利潤收回計劃方面取得的最新進展。最後，我將介紹我們的代理關係的最新情況以及我們最近的年度代理會議的要點。傑夫將更詳細地審查我們的財務和運營業績，然後我們將開通您的提問熱線。

Our first quarter results, excluding catastrophes were strong, consistent with our expectations and supported by the progress we've made to advance the margin recapture plan we established last year.

排除災難因素後，我們的第一季度業績強勁，符合我們的預期，並得到我們在推進去年制定的利潤收回計劃方面取得的進展的支持。

We are executing price increases slightly above expectations in Personal Lines, while also meaningfully advancing pricing and underwriting measures across the board in commercial property. Throughout the quarter, however, Hanover and the industry experienced heightened catastrophe activity, stemming from severe freeze events and several storms with widespread wind and tornado activity, which turned what was a very solid quarter for our company into one of essentially breakeven operating results.

我們對個人險種的價格上漲略高於預期，同時也有意義地全面推進商業地產的定價和承保措施。然而，在整個季度中，漢諾威和整個行業經歷了嚴重的冰凍事件和幾次風暴以及大範圍的大風和龍捲風活動造成的災難活動加劇，這使我們公司原本非常穩健的季度變成了基本上盈虧平衡的經營業績之一。

I first want to take a moment to recognize the efforts of our exceptional cat response team. Our cat team members are working tirelessly to settle claims as swiftly and effectively as possible for our valued customers. The team once again stepped up to do what they do best, providing responsive service to our customers in their time of need and helping them recover from these storms as quickly as possible.

首先，我想花一點時間來表彰我們傑出的貓反應團隊所做的努力。我們的 Cat 團隊成員正在不懈努力，盡可能快速有效地為我們尊貴的客戶解決索賠問題。該團隊再次加緊做他們最擅長的事情，在客戶需要時為他們提供響應式服務，並幫助他們盡快從這些風暴中恢復過來。

Given the continuing pressure related to changing weather patterns and elevated cat activity, I want to provide more insight into the actions we are taking to address its effects. On our fourth quarter call, we highlighted our past success in managing traditional catastrophe risks by combining disciplined underwriting, data, analytic tools and technology to reduce our micro concentrations and coastal exposures and enhance our pricing for the catastrophe perils.

考慮到天氣模式變化和貓活動增加帶來的持續壓力，我想更深入地了解我們為解決其影響而採取的行動。在第四季度的電話會議上，我們強調了我們過去在管理傳統巨災風險方面取得的成功，通過結合嚴格的承保、數據、分析工具和技術，減少我們的微觀集中度和沿海風險，並提高我們對巨災風險的定價。

These actions have resulted in lower exposures to hurricanes and coastal risks over the last 10 years reduced vulnerability to storms along the tornado alley, and have also helped build a significantly more diversified book of business. Across our industry, however, it's abundantly clear that the increasing severity of claims from changing weather patterns, including winter storms necessitates even more aggressive strategies.

這些行動在過去十年中降低了颶風和沿海風險的風險，降低了龍捲風沿線對風暴的脆弱性，並幫助建立了更加多元化的業務。然而，在整個行業中，非常明顯的是，由於天氣模式變化（包括冬季風暴）而導致的索賠日益嚴重，需要採取更積極的策略。

While we have significantly reduced our catastrophe concentrations in many geographic markets across our portfolio over the past several years, we are acting with a heightened sense of urgency given the recent events.

雖然過去幾年我們投資組合中許多地理市場的災難集中度顯著降低，但考慮到最近發生的事件，我們採取行動的緊迫感更加強烈。

With that in mind, we are pursuing 3 key areas of action to respond to these new weather patterns. These actions include property underwriting enhancements, pricing acceleration and more proactive and assertive loss control and risk prevention measures.

考慮到這一點，我們正在採取 3 個關鍵行動領域來應對這些新的天氣模式。這些行動包括加強財產承保、加速定價以及更加主動和果斷的損失控制和風險預防措施。

On the underwriting side, we are implementing new and revised underwriting guidelines, including even more stringent coastal and wildfire guidelines. Additionally, we are seeking to reduce exposure in specific sectors and geographies, non-renewing risks that lack appropriate winter weather controls and utilizing higher deductibles for certain types of losses with particular emphasis on water damage.

在承保方面，我們正在實施新的和修訂的承保指南，包括更嚴格的沿海和野火指南。此外，我們正在尋求減少特定行業和地區的風險敞口、缺乏適當冬季天氣控制的非更新風險，並對某些類型的損失（特別是水災損失）採用更高的免賠額。

We are also requiring temperature and water sensors on risk with higher property limits in specific industry classes, particularly those with prior losses. And we are leveraging our property segmentation tools, which allow us to model weather perils at specific locations and identify underfunded properties for significant price increases or nonrenewal. This will help reduce portfolio volatility and should drive expected cat ratio improvement.

我們還要求溫度和水傳感器在特定行業類別中具有更高的財產限制風險，特別是那些先前有損失的行業。我們正在利用我們的房產細分工具，該工具使我們能夠對特定地點的天氣危險進行建模，並識別資金不足的房產，以大幅提高價格或不再更新。這將有助於減少投資組合的波動性，並應推動預期巨災比率的改善。

We are also significantly increasing the use of technology to assist with large property assessments. Infrared thermography, advanced AI risk evaluation tools and drone programs are helping us better recognize and minimize potential hazards and vulnerability to weather-related storms.

我們還大幅增加技術的使用來協助大型財產評估。紅外熱成像、先進的人工智能風險評估工具和無人機程序正在幫助我們更好地識別和最大程度地減少與天氣相關的風暴的潛在危害和脆弱性。

With respect to pricing, we are leaning into the hard market to push for even more rate and greater exposure increases, which should help offset elevated cat losses and the anticipated increase in reinsurance costs. Both our personal and core commercial businesses are achieving their highest premium exposure increases in many years.

在定價方面，我們正在向硬市場傾斜，以推動更高的利率和更大的風險敞口增加，這應該有助於抵消巨災損失的增加和再保險成本的預期增加。我們的個人和核心商業業務都實現了多年來最高的保費增長。

In the first quarter, core commercial property renewal increases were 11.4%, Property-focused specialty lines achieved an average increase of 16.8%, while our homeowners line achieved an average increase of 18.9%.

第一季度，核心商業地產續租增幅為11.4%，以地產為主的專業線平均增幅為16.8%，而我們的自住線平均增幅為18.9%。

Additionally, as of March, automated insurance to value adjustments in Small Commercial are set between 6% and 8% on top of rate, which will push overall future renewal price change even higher.

此外，截至 3 月份，小型商業的自動保險價值調整設定在費率之上的 6% 至 8% 之間，這將推動未來整體續保價格變化更高。

As part of our focus on loss control and risk prevention, we doubled down on water and temperature sensor installation in 2022, resulting in an increase in avoided property damage and business interruption.

作為我們重點關注損失控制和風險預防的一部分，我們在 2022 年加倍加大了水和溫度傳感器的安裝力度，從而避免了財產損失和業務中斷的情況增加。

Customer adoption of this technology has grown significantly following Winter Storm Elliott, allowing us to increase the number of protected buildings by 25% over the last few months. While penetration of this technology is still low relative to our overall property portfolio, we are encouraged to see customer adoption continuing to gain momentum, and we have plans to drive greater utilization where exposures to winter weather are most severe.

冬季風暴 Elliott 過後，客戶對該技術的採用顯著增加，使我們能夠在過去幾個月內將受保護的建築物數量增加 25%。雖然相對於我們的整體房地產投資組合，這項技術的滲透率仍然較低，但我們很高興看到客戶的採用繼續獲得動力，並且我們計劃在冬季天氣最嚴重的地區提高利用率。

One of the key learnings we've taken away from our analysis of Winter Storm Elliott, is that a limited number of properties drove a large portion of total losses.

我們從冬季風暴埃利奧特的分析中得到的重要教訓之一是，有限數量的房產造成了總損失的很大一部分。

In response to these findings, we are strategically prioritizing larger, more complex risks for sensor installation, which will ultimately generate higher, more significant save rates. Working in partnership with 1 of the recognized leaders of risk prevention technology, we have the infrastructure to scale our existing risk prevention platform and are mobilizing quickly.

針對這些發現，我們在戰略上優先考慮安裝傳感器時更大、更複雜的風險，這最終將產生更高、更顯著的節省率。我們與一位公認的風險預防技術領導者合作，擁有擴展現有風險預防平台的基礎設施，並正在快速動員。

Furthermore, we are supplementing these risk prevention initiatives with active agency management and customer education tools and programs. We are also enhancing our robust database of risk managers, building engineers and facility personnel at our larger insured locations, so we can deliver more timely, directed and targeted communications to help our customers prevent losses and/or mitigate damage when losses occur.

此外，我們還通過積極的機構管理和客戶教育工具和計劃來補充這些風險預防舉措。我們還在較大的受保地點增強我們強大的風險經理、建築工程師和設施人員數據庫，以便我們能夠提供更及時、更有針對性和有針對性的溝通，幫助我們的客戶防止損失和/或在發生損失時減輕損害。

Turning to our margin recapture plan, which primarily targets property lines and amplifies the effects of our cat management initiatives, I will note the following: our first quarter ex-cat results underscore the strong progress we've made in all 3 segments of our business.

談到我們的利潤收回計劃，該計劃主要針對房地產業務並擴大我們的巨災管理計劃的影響，我要指出以下幾點：我們第一季度的不包括巨災的業績強調了我們在所有三個業務領域所取得的強勁進展。

In Personal Lines, our overall average price increase was nearly 13% across the account, driving premium growth of 10.1% in the quarter. Renewal price increases were slightly above expectations with acceleration in both home and auto.

在個人險種中，我們整個賬戶的整體平均價格上漲了近 13%，推動本季度保費增長 10.1%。續訂價格漲幅略高於預期，家庭和汽車價格均加速上漲。

Retention remains strong, and we believe that there is additional room and market support for further price increases. And in addition, new business pricing continues to be very robust, and we will be very disciplined to ensure that our profitability objectives are not compromised in any way.

保留率依然強勁，我們認為進一步提價還有額外的空間和市場支持。此外，新業務的定價仍然非常強勁，我們將非常自律，以確保我們的盈利目標不會以任何方式受到損害。

An increasing number of Personal Lines carriers, public and mutual are taking significant rate increases on both renewals and new business, resulting in an even stronger hard market in Personal Lines.

越來越多的個人保險運營商、公共和互助保險公司正在大幅提高續約和新業務的費率，從而導致個人保險市場更加強勁。

Regulators in most states are more understanding of rate need. We revised our Personal Lines filings and pricing expectations upward relative to our view we shared in January. In auto, we now expect to achieve 13% to 14% renewal price increases in the second half of the year, which is about 2 points above our original expectations.

大多數州的監管機構更加了解利率需求。相對於我們一月份分享的觀點，我們向上修改了個人線路備案和定價預期。在汽車領域，我們目前預計下半年續保價格將實現 13% 至 14% 的增長，比我們原來的預期高出約 2 個百分點。

Home renewal price should be around 20% for the remainder of the year, which is 2 to 3 points higher compared to what we originally planned. As a result of these actions, we remain committed to delivering meaningful loss ratio improvement in Personal Lines in 2023, and bringing this business back to target profitability in the latter part of 2024.

今年剩下的時間裡，房屋更新價格應該在20%左右，比我們原來的計劃高出2到3個百分點。由於採取了這些行動，我們仍然致力於在 2023 年實現個人保險賠付率的顯著改善，並在 2024 年下半年使該業務恢復到盈利目標。

In core commercial, we continue to execute on a combination of rate and exposure increases as well as targeted underwriting actions during the quarter. Price increases averaged 11.5%, reflecting an uptick from the fourth quarter. Retention is at target levels, providing room for even higher price increases going forward.

在核心商業方面，我們在本季度繼續執行利率和風險增加以及有針對性的承保行動的組合。價格平均上漲 11.5%，較第四季度有所上升。保留率處於目標水平，為未來更高的價格上漲提供了空間。

We remain focused on further differentiating our approach to pricing by leveraging granular segmentation tools to push additional price increases in the areas we need it most with emphasis on property. We are pleased to see our pricing and underwriting actions starting to earn into the book and show itself in our results, as demonstrated by the solid underlying first quarter performance in core commercial.

我們仍然專注於進一步差異化我們的定價方法，利用精細的細分工具來推動我們最需要的領域（重點是房地產）的額外價格上漲。我們很高興看到我們的定價和承保行動開始在賬簿中體現出來，並在我們的業績中得到體現，第一季度核心商業業務的堅實基礎表現就證明了這一點。

We are off to a strong start for the year in specialty, as demonstrated by our excellent first quarter results. Price increases remained healthy, coming in at nearly 13% for the first quarter, led by property lines. The pricing environment in specialty remains firm in the majority of our markets, with increases in the quarter supported by strong exposure growth.

正如我們出色的第一季度業績所證明的那樣，我們在專業領域今年有了一個良好的開端。價格上漲依然健康，第一季度價格上漲近 13%，其中房地產價格漲幅最大。在我們的大多數市場中，特種產品的定價環境仍然堅挺，強勁的敞口增長支撐了本季度的價格上漲。

Specialty delivered an ex-cat combined ratio of 83% and growth of 7.1%, despite some ongoing segmentation and underwriting actions. The diversified nature of this book with 9 different businesses in over 20 product areas continues to be helpful in acting as a buffer to property and cat exposure.

儘管正在進行一些細分和承保行動，但 Specialty 的前貓綜合成本率為 83%，增長率為 7.1%。這本書的多元化性質涉及 20 多個產品領域的 9 種不同業務，這仍然有助於充當財產和貓風險的緩衝。

At the same time, we continue to execute on our specialty strategic objectives. During the quarter, we further enhanced our offerings with the launch of a new product for miscellaneous professional liability E&S market. This product is focused on providing E&O coverage for the small to midsized firms that we had previously not been positioned to write and will significantly enhance our ability to align with our distribution partners on a larger portion of their NPL business.

與此同時，我們繼續執行我們的專業戰略目標。本季度，我們針對各種專業責任 E&S 市場推出了新產品，進一步增強了我們的產品組合。該產品的重點是為我們以前沒有能力編寫的中小型公司提供 E&O 覆蓋範圍，並將顯著增強我們與分銷合作夥伴就其大部分不良貸款業務進行協調的能力。

Our top-notch team has decades of related experience, and we are looking forward to the opportunity to drive profitable growth in this segment, as we provide this valued and sought after offering to our agents.

我們的一流團隊擁有數十年的相關經驗，我們期待著有機會推動這一領域的盈利增長，因為我們為我們的代理商提供了這一有價值且受歡迎的產品。

We also continue to leverage and actively market our newer capabilities such as Retail E&S, Cyber and Specialty General Liability. At the same time, we are further promoting our industry specialization, primarily by identifying areas of superior strength in specific regions and distribution points and leveraging them for growth in key sectors.

我們還繼續利用並積極營銷我們的新功能，例如零售 E&S、網絡和專業一般責任。同時，我們進一步推進行業專業化，主要是在特定區域和經銷點尋找優勢領域，並利用它們來促進重點行業的增長。

The outstanding agency partnerships we have cultivated over many years are serving us exceptionally well, as we execute on our underwriting and pricing imperatives. It's more critical than ever to have an experienced and capable distribution network to address and overcome challenges and to attract the right opportunities.

我們多年來培養的優秀代理合作夥伴關係為我們提供了出色的服務，幫助我們執行承保和定價要求。擁有經驗豐富、能力強的分銷網絡來應對和克服挑戰並吸引合適的機會比以往任何時候都更加重要。

Last week, we held our Annual President's Club Conference, a gathering of over 120 of our largest, most critical and successful agent partners. We conducted important executive meetings focusing on our capabilities, industry trends and pricing needs, and how we can help our agent partners more effectively serve their customers during this very dynamic time.

上週，我們舉行了年度總裁俱樂部會議，120 多家規模最大、最重要和最成功的代理合作夥伴齊聚一堂。我們舉行了重要的高管會議，重點討論我們的能力、行業趨勢和定價需求，以及我們如何幫助我們的代理合作夥伴在這個充滿活力的時期更有效地服務他們的客戶。

We came away from these meetings extremely encouraged about our prospects and with several key takeaways. First, it is clear that agent partners are more keenly focused than ever on improving their efficiency through more effective operating models, staff optimization and the use of advanced analytics and technology, seeking to enhance EBITDA margins. And we are incredibly well positioned to partner with them on their journey.

結束這些會議後，我們對我們的前景感到非常鼓舞，並得到了一些重要的收穫。首先，很明顯，代理商合作夥伴比以往任何時候都更加專注於通過更有效的運營模式、員工優化以及先進分析和技術的使用來提高效率，尋求提高 EBITDA 利潤率。我們非常有能力在他們的旅程中與他們合作。

Second, in light of increasing cat losses industry-wide and the impact of inflation, our agents understand the need for increased pricing, more focus on risk prevention and enhance customer education and communication. Agents fully recognize the critical role they play in our efforts to advance customer adoption of risk prevention and mitigation tools. And they are committed to partnering with us to make this important mindset shift and execute on risk control initiatives.

其次，針對全行業巨災損失的增加以及通脹的影響，我們的代理商了解提高定價的必要性，更加註重風險防範，加強客戶教育和溝通。代理商充分認識到他們在我們推動客戶採用風險預防和緩解工具的努力中發揮的關鍵作用。他們致力於與我們合作，實現這一重要的思維轉變並執行風險控制舉措。

And third, our differentiated Personal Lines, core commercial and specialty offerings continue to be in high demand among the best agents in the country, as they acquire midsize and smaller agencies who have considerable amounts of this business and also look to continue developing areas of specialization.

第三，我們差異化的個人業務、核心商業和專業產品繼續受到國內最佳代理商的高需求，因為他們收購了擁有大量此類業務的中型和小型代理商，並希望繼續發展專業化領域。

Our partner agents are particularly invigorated by the broad and expanding product capabilities in our specialty portfolio, enabling them to strengthen the depth of their customer and Hanover relationships, as they write more lines of business with us.

我們的專業產品組合中廣泛且不斷擴展的產品能力尤其讓我們的合作夥伴代理商感到振奮，這使他們能夠在與我們合作的過程中加強客戶和漢諾威關係的深度。

Additionally, our TAP Sales platform offering, combined with our robust product capabilities and specialized industry verticals, sets us apart from many competitors and enables continued growth opportunities. Ultimately, we came away from the event with more conviction that our agent partnering approach represents a greater competitive advantage than ever, and that our strategy is further resonating with them, which positions us exceptionally well going forward to drive strong, sustained profitability and deliver outstanding value for our shareholders and other stakeholders.

此外，我們的 TAP Sales 平台產品與我們強大的產品能力和專業的垂直行業相結合，使我們在眾多競爭對手中脫穎而出，並帶來持續的增長機會。最終，我們在結束這次活動時更加堅信，我們的代理商合作方式比以往任何時候都具有更大的競爭優勢，並且我們的戰略進一步引起了他們的共鳴，這使我們能夠在未來推動強勁、持續的盈利能力並提供出色的業績為我們的股東和其他利益相關者創造價值。

We began 2023 with the benefit of several quarters of strong price increases that will continue to earn into our book of business, as we move throughout the year. We are working hard to mitigate our exposure to changing weather patterns and extreme weather events that are elevating catastrophe losses across the P&C industry. And we are confident that the actions we are taking will generate positive results. We are making excellent progress on our margin recapture plan with solid positive trajectory in 2023 and further gains expected in 2024.

2023 年伊始，我們受益於幾個季度的強勁價格上漲，隨著我們全年的發展，這將繼續為我們的業務帶來收益。我們正在努力減輕不斷變化的天氣模式和極端天氣事件的影響，這些事件正在增加整個財產和意外傷害行業的災難損失。我們相信我們正在採取的行動將產生積極的成果。我們的利潤收回計劃正在取得出色進展，2023 年將實現穩健的積極發展軌跡，預計 2024 年將進一步實現增長。

With that, I will turn the call over to Jeff.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thank you, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Our consolidated results for the first quarter reflected elevated catastrophe losses, which led us to exceed our cat assumption by approximately $112 million or about 8 points. First quarter catastrophe losses stem from over 20 events, including severe freeze events in February and the beginning of March as well as widespread wind and tornado activity, particularly in mid- to late March.

謝謝你，傑克，大家早上好。我們第一季度的綜合業績反映了巨災損失的增加，這導致我們超出了巨災假設約 1.12 億美元，即約 8 個百分點。第一季度的災難損失源於 20 多起事件，包括 2 月和 3 月初的嚴重冰凍事件以及大範圍的風和龍捲風活動，特別是在 3 月中下旬。

According to preliminary industry estimates, this first quarter was one of the highest for catastrophe losses over the last 10 years. Excluding catastrophes, we've performed in line with our expectations, registering an ex-cat combined ratio of 91.7%. Our expense ratio for the first quarter of 2023 was 30.7% compared with 31.1% in the prior year quarter, keeping us on track to achieve our expense ratio target of 30.8% for the full year 2023.

根據行業初步估計，今年第一季度是過去 10 年來災難損失最高的季度之一。排除災難因素，我們的表現符合我們的預期，除災難因素外的綜合比率為 91.7%。我們 2023 年第一季度的費用率為 30.7%，而去年同期為 31.1%，這使我們有望實現 2023 年全年 30.8% 的費用率目標。

Prior year reserve development was favorable in the quarter by $3 million, primarily attributable to specialty as well as workers' compensation and core commercial lines, partially offset by unfavorable development in Personal Lines and commercial auto.

本季度上一年的準備金發展有利，增加了 300 萬美元，主要歸因於專業產品以及工人補償和核心商業產品線，部分被個人產品線和商用汽車的不利發展所抵消。

Turning to a discussion of our underwriting results by segments, starting with core commercial. Our combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 92.1% in the first quarter of 2023, above the prior year quarter, but in line with our expectations. Core commercial current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 58.5%, 1.1 points higher than the year earlier period, driven by higher property loss severity in commercial auto.

轉向按細分市場討論我們的承保業績，從核心商業開始。 2023 年第一季度，剔除災難因素後，我們的綜合成本率為 92.1%，高於去年同期，但符合我們的預期。由於商用車財產損失嚴重程度較高，核心商用車當前事故年損失率為58.5%，比去年同期高1.1個百分點。

The underlying loss ratio in core commercial was in line with our expectations in the quarter. We were also pleased to see the frequency of large losses in our CMP business come down from elevated levels seen in the second half of 2022. Performance of other major lines within core commercial was also in line to slightly better than the prior year quarter results.

本季度核心商業業務的基本損失率符合我們的預期。我們還很高興地看到我們的 CMP 業務出現巨額虧損的頻率已從 2022 年下半年的高位回落。核心商業領域其他主要業務的業績也與去年同期的業績相符，略好於去年同期的業績。

Turning to specialty. Our combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, decreased 2 points from the prior year quarter to 83%, driven by favorable prior year reserve development and underlying loss ratio improvement. Specialty favorable development stemmed primarily from claims-made management liability business, and to a lesser extent, health care and surety businesses.

轉向專業。受去年有利的準備金發展和基本損失率改善的推動，我們的綜合成本率（不包括災難）比去年同期下降了 2 個百分點，至 83%。特殊業務的有利發展主要源於索賠管理責任業務，以及較小程度的醫療保健和擔保業務。

The Specialty current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophes, improved by about 1 point from the first quarter of last year, primarily reflecting lower-than-expected losses in Marine as well as the benefit of increased rates earning in.

專業當前事故年損失率（不包括災難）比去年第一季度提高了約 1 個百分點，主要反映了海事損失低於預期以及收益增加帶來的好處。

Turning to Personal Lines. The ex-cat combined ratio was 96.2% and primarily reflected higher prior and current accident year auto losses. Personal Auto, unfavorable prior year development of $7.9 million or 2.4 points was impacted by loss activity, primarily in the third and fourth quarters of last year, due in part to delayed reporting of third-party claims in our property damage coverage.

轉向個人線路。未發生事故的綜合成本率為 96.2%，主要反映了前一年和當前事故年度汽車損失較高。個人汽車，上年不利發展為 790 萬美元或 2.4 個百分點，受到損失活動的影響，主要是在去年第三和第四季度，部分原因是我們的財產損失保險中第三方索賠的延遲報告。

Home and Other unfavorable prior year development of $3.7 million or 1.6 points was primarily related to liability and reflected additional new information received on a couple of larger claims and a large unfavorable court verdict pertaining to a 2020 fatality claim.

家庭和其他去年不利的增長為 370 萬美元或 1.6 個百分點，主要與責任有關，並反映了關於幾項較大索賠的額外新信息以及與 2020 年死亡索賠有關的大量不利法院判決。

Personal Lines current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophes was 68%, primarily reflecting continued inflationary pressures at auto property and homeowners. Relative to our expectations, the underlying ratio in the quarter was about 1 point higher. Personal auto current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophes, of 75.8% was slightly above our expectations with higher severity, mostly offset by lower accident frequency in the quarter.

個人保險目前的事故年損失率（不包括災難）為 68%，主要反映了汽車財產和房主持續的通脹壓力。相對於我們的預期，本季度的基本比率高出約 1 個百分點。當前個人汽車事故年損失率（不包括災難）為 75.8%，略高於我們的預期，且嚴重程度較高，但大部分被本季度較低的事故頻率所抵消。

The increased severity stemmed from the effect of continued inflation on repair parts and labor rates and increased car rental costs stemming from extended cycle times. In home, some large fire loss activity drove the loss ratio to 56.9% which was slightly above our expectations.

問題的嚴重性源於持續通貨膨脹對維修零件和人工費率的影響，以及週期時間延長導致的汽車租賃成本增加。國內方面，一些較大的火災損失活動導致損失率達到56.9%，略高於我們的預期。

While the cost of lumber has come down and some other material costs have flattened over the past several quarters, labor costs continue to be elevated. As a result, we are continuing to lean into the use of rate and non-rate tools such as home evaluations and ITV increases in our pricing.

儘管過去幾個季度木材成本有所下降，其他一些材料成本也趨於平緩，但勞動力成本仍在上升。因此，我們將繼續傾向於使用費率和非費率工具，例如房屋評估和獨立電視價格上漲。

We remain pleased with the execution of our margin recapture plan in Personal Lines. We continue to achieve exposures and rates slightly above our expectations and are capitalizing on strong retention and a hardening market to push rates higher.

我們對個人險種利潤收回計劃的執行仍然感到滿意。我們繼續實現略高於我們預期的風險敞口和利率，並利用強勁的保留率和市場的硬化來推高利率。

Now moving on to a discussion of our investments. Net investment income came in at $78.7 million, $1.8 million higher than the prior year quarter, helped by higher bond and reinvestment rates and growing operational cash flows, partially offset by partnership income, which was approximately $10 million lower than the prior year quarter.

現在繼續討論我們的投資。淨投資收入為 7,870 萬美元，比去年同期增加 180 萬美元，這得益於較高的債券和再投資利率以及不斷增長的運營現金流，但部分被合夥收入所抵消，合夥人收入比去年同期減少了約 1,000 萬美元。

Partnership returns can fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. Partnerships produced $5 million versus $15 million a year ago and our expectations of roughly $7 million per quarter in 2023.

合夥企業的回報可能會因季度而異。合作夥伴關係產生了 500 萬美元，而一年前為 1500 萬美元，我們預計 2023 年每季度約為 700 萬美元。

What's important, however, is that for the vast majority of our portfolio, the current higher interest rate environment continues to provide an accumulating benefit to net investment income and allows us to reinvest at attractive market yields without compromising the credit quality of the portfolio.

然而，重要的是，對於我們的絕大多數投資組合而言，當前較高的利率環境繼續為淨投資收益提供累積效益，並使我們能夠以有吸引力的市場收益率進行再投資，而不會影響投資組合的信用質量。

Our investment portfolio is high quality, diversified and thoughtfully built with robust growing yields. The portfolio is well laddered with modest allocation to risk asset classes and benefit from significant issuer diversification. Given the recent attention on the global banking industry and investments related to commercial real estate, I would like to cover the composition of our investment portfolio and our limited exposure to these 2 areas.

我們的投資組合高質量、多元化且經過精心構建，收益率強勁增長。該投資組合結構合理，風險資產類別適度配置，並受益於發行人的多元化。鑑於最近對全球銀行業和商業房地產相關投資的關注，我想介紹一下我們投資組合的構成以及我們在這兩個領域的有限投資。

The banking sector represents approximately 10% of our total invested assets with an average rating of A-. The portfolio includes a mix of U.S. money centers, U.S. regionals and foreign banks with no single issuer representing greater than 0.4% of total invested assets. We have limited investment exposure to Silicon Valley Bank, which represented $20.8 million in fair value at year-end 2022 and $14.8 million in fair value on March 31. Additionally, we do not have any investment exposure to Signature Bank or any other distressed banks.

銀行業約占我們總投資資產的 10%，平均評級為 A-。該投資組合包括美國貨幣中心、美國地區銀行和外國銀行，沒有任何一家發行人佔總投資資產的比例超過 0.4%。我們對矽谷銀行的投資敞口有限，2022 年底的公允價值為 2080 萬美元，3 月 31 日的公允價值為 1480 萬美元。此外，我們對 Signature Bank 或任何其他陷入困境的銀行沒有任何投資敞口。

We own $835 million of commercial mortgage-backed securities. The portfolio is very high quality, supported by an average overall rating of AAA. Within the portfolio, approximately 91% is rated AAA and 5% is rated AA, underscoring our confidence in the quality and strength of these investment holdings. Our holdings are diversified by property type, geography and vintage.

我們擁有 8.35 億美元的商業抵押貸款支持證券。該投資組合質量非常高，平均總體評級為 AAA。在投資組合中，大約 91% 的評級為 AAA，5% 的評級為 AA，這突顯了我們對這些投資控股的質量和實力的信心。我們的資產按房產類型、地理位置和年份進行多元化。

Additionally, the CMBS investments have significant credit enhancements of 30% or more, which allows the securitization to withstand substantial underlying defaults with no losses to our tranche.

此外，CMBS 投資具有 30% 或更多的顯著信用增級，這使得證券化能夠承受大量的潛在違約，而我們的部分不會遭受損失。

Commercial mortgage loans represent approximately 4% of total investment assets. The loan-to-value ratio on average across our entire commercial mortgage loan portfolio is 58%, demonstrating an ability to withstand downside from price declines in commercial real estate.

商業抵押貸款約佔總投資資產的4%。我們整個商業抵押貸款組合的平均貸款價值比為 58%，這表明我們有能力抵禦商業房地產價格下跌帶來的下行影響。

We recognize that in general, the level of uncertainty related to investments is currently higher than much of the last decade and investor concerns may continue to migrate from 1 asset class to another. However, our investment portfolio has proven to be very resilient. We have a relatively predictable stream of cash inflows and outflows and generally hold most assets to maturity. Overall, we feel very comfortable with the investment risks and confident in the quality of our portfolio.

我們認識到，總體而言，目前與投資相關的不確定性水平高於過去十年的大部分時間，投資者的擔憂可能會繼續從一種資產類別轉移到另一種資產類別。然而，事實證明，我們的投資組合非常有彈性。我們的現金流入和流出相對可預測，並且通常將大部分資產持有至到期。總體而言，我們對投資風險感到非常滿意，並對我們的投資組合質量充滿信心。

Looking at our equity and capital position, our book value increased approximately 2% on a sequential basis to $66.89 in the first quarter. We remain disciplined and balanced on our capital management priorities and committed to being strong stewards of our capital.

從我們的股本和資本狀況來看，第一季度我們的賬面價值環比增長了約 2%，達到 66.89 美元。我們在資本管理優先事項上保持紀律和平衡，並致力於成為資本的強有力管理者。

I'll conclude my prepared remarks by saying that despite the industry-wide challenges we face, I am confident the actions we are taking put us on a strong trajectory to deliver solid financial and operational performance in 2023, with the expectation for excellent performance in 2024 and beyond.

在結束我準備好的發言時，我要說，儘管我們面臨全行業的挑戰，但我相信我們正在採取的行動使我們走上強勁的軌道，在 2023 年實現穩健的財務和運營業績，並期望在 2023 年取得優異的業績。 2024 年及以後。

Our planned cat load for the second quarter of 2023 is 6.0%. We are aggressively focused on executing our catastrophe management initiatives and are pushing harder on our margin recapture plan to continue to drive superior returns for our shareholders. The underlying fundamentals of our business are strong. Our team is exceptional, and we are well positioned to continue executing against our ambitious strategic priorities.

我們計劃 2023 年第二季度的 Cat 負荷為 6.0%。我們積極專注於執行我們的災難管理計劃，並更加努力地推動我們的利潤收回計劃，以繼續為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。我們業務的基本面十分強勁。我們的團隊非常出色，我們有能力繼續執行我們雄心勃勃的戰略重點。

With that, we will now open the line for questions.

現在，我們將開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Matt Carletti from JMP.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自 JMP 的 Matt Carletti。

Jack, you spent a good amount of time there talking about a lot of the things you're doing to tackle the elevated weather and catastrophe losses. Elliott was kind of a very different issue than kind of what we saw this quarter. I was just wondering, if you view kind of winter weather or spring weather is kind of being equal things you need to tackle? Or if you think one is maybe more persistent and more of an issue than the other? Is it less of an issue on year-end and more of just cat happen when they happen and not in a straight line?

傑克，你在那里花了很多時間談論你正在做的很多事情來應對惡劣的天氣和災難損失。埃利奧特是一個與我們本季度看到的非常不同的問題。我只是想知道，您是否認為冬季天氣或春季天氣是您需要解決的相同問題？或者，如果您認為其中一個可能比另一個更持久、更成問題？難道這不是年終的問題，而更多的是當它們發生而不是直線發生時發生的問題嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Matt. There's no doubt, as we said in our prepared remarks that the type of winter storms that we encountered, starting with Elliott, but also to a lesser degree in the first quarter are different in that they're not as responsive to the property aggregation work, we've done and the elimination of some micro concentrations. And so in that regard, that rises to the top of our list of areas that we really want to improve upon fast.

是的。謝謝，馬特。毫無疑問，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們遇到的冬季風暴類型（從埃利奧特開始，但在第一季度的程度較小）有所不同，因為它們對財產聚合工作的反應不那麼靈敏，我們已經完成並消除了一些微濃度。因此，在這方面，這是我們真正希望快速改進的領域清單的首要內容。

Stating the obvious, all of that was accentuated by and exacerbated by the inflation and supply chain issues that continue. So it's a bit of a perfect storm in terms of the cost that we have to incur.

顯而易見的是，所有這些都因持續存在的通貨膨脹和供應鏈問題而加劇和加劇。因此，就我們必須承擔的成本而言，這有點像一場完美風暴。

So as we said, we're going hard at this. We had momentum, frankly, in some of the areas of risk mitigation versus just loss reimbursement. I think in a lot of ways, Elliott and the subsequent storms give us an opportunity to advance those more quickly.

正如我們所說，我們正在努力做到這一點。坦率地說，我們在某些​​風險緩解領域而不是僅僅賠償損失方面擁有動力。我認為在很多方面，埃利奧特和隨後的風暴給了我們一個更快地推進這些目標的機會。

And also, if you look back at Elliott, roughly 250 commercial customers made up an outsized proportion of our losses, which allows us, I think, to be even more surgical about how we go after that versus the broader catastrophe kind of terrain. So we'll continue to work very, very hard on the broader catastrophe management and including pricing and terms and conditions, but we are definitely putting winter storms at the top of our list to go at very surgically.

而且，如果你回顧一下 Elliott，就會發現大約 250 個商業客戶在我們的損失中佔據了很大的比例，我認為，這使我們能夠更加謹慎地對待如何處理這些問題，而不是面對更廣泛的災難。因此，我們將繼續非常非常努力地進行更廣泛的災難管理，包括定價和條款和條件，但我們肯定會將冬季風暴放在我們的首要任務中，以進行非常徹底的處理。

Great. And then you mentioned kind of on that risk mitigation point, and you talked about working with your agents to get your insureds on board. What does that look like? Is it a -- if you install this, there's policy discounts? Is it, you need to install this, or you'll be nonrenewed? Or is it Hanover will pay for it or provide some funding for you -- the customer to install it and carry on? Kind of how does that -- how do you incentivize your customers to install these things?

偉大的。然後您提到了風險緩解點，並談到了與您的代理人合作以讓您的被保險人加入。那看起來像什麼？如果你安裝這個，會有政策折扣嗎？是嗎，您需要安裝這個，否則您將無法續訂？還是漢諾威會支付費用或為您（客戶）提供一些資金來安裝並繼續使用？您如何激勵客戶安裝這些東西？

Yes. Our plan of attack is going to include all of that. It really does start with what did we learn about the type of customers, why weren't they able to respond to a pretty well advertised freeze that came across the country and hit almost every state in the union.

是的。我們的攻擊計劃將包括所有這些。這確實始於我們對客戶類型的了解，為什麼他們無法對全國范圍內幾乎每個州都受到廣泛宣傳的凍結做出反應。

So we've been pretty firm about which customers do we think really did not -- were not responsive enough from a risk management standpoint. There are certain sectors, whether it be educational institutions and schools or certain types of real estate accounts that frankly are more susceptible to that type of event.

因此，對於我們認為哪些客戶確實沒有——從風險管理的角度來看，我們的反應不夠充分，我們一直非常堅定。坦率地說，某些部門，無論是教育機構和學校，還是某些類型的房地產賬戶，更容易受到此類事件的影響。

So we are kind of tiering it as where do we believe that maybe we should kind of take some chips off the table relative to some of our portfolio concentration, where can we lean in hard and put some incentives in place that say, if you put these controls in place, we will give you some pricing consideration, which these days means less of an increase, not a decrease. And then we'll contemplate what kind of deductible is appropriate for the water damage based on the responsiveness at the customer level.

因此，我們對它進行了分層，因為我們認為也許我們應該相對於我們的某些投資組合集中度採取一些籌碼，我們可以在哪里大力傾斜並採取一些激勵措施，也就是說，如果你把這些控制措施到位後，我們會給您一些定價考慮，這意味著現在的價格增加較少，而不是減少。然後，我們將根據客戶層面的響應能力，考慮什麼樣的免賠額適合水災損失。

And I think last but not least, as we look at this going forward, we are trying very hard to get as much price as we possibly can, particularly where the elevated limits really aren't being fully contemplated with the new severity. Even after the inflation eventually starts to subside some, we are really focusing on making sure we have the proper insurance to value and pricing for the kind of where the severity is presenting itself.

我認為最後但並非最不重要的一點是，當我們展望未來時，我們正在非常努力地爭取盡可能多的價格，特別是在新的嚴重程度確實沒有充分考慮到提高的限制的情況下。即使在通貨膨脹最終開始有所消退之後，我們真正關注的是確保我們有適當的保險來針對嚴重程度出現的情況進行估值和定價。

That's great. And then one, just if I could kind of shifting topics to think about Personal Auto and a little bit just a very high-level question.

那太棒了。然後，我是否可以轉移話題來思考一下個人汽車以及一個非常高級的問題。

Just as we look at -- obviously, there's a lot of inputs into the cost pressures there that we've talked about on past calls. I'm just wondering as you look at kind of extended repair times and other things. How much of an impact is kind of the growing presence of electric vehicles having? I would think your book might have an okay proportion of mass affluent and then being more expensive vehicles. Does that kind of shift over time as the industry, the fleet on the road goes that direction? Is that contributing to this? Or is it just a really, really small issue?

正如我們所看到的，顯然，我們在過去的電話會議中討論過很多成本壓力。我只是想知道你是否考慮延長維修時間和其他事情。電動汽車的日益普及產生了多大的影響？我認為你的書可能有相當一部分大眾富裕人士，然後是更昂貴的車輛。隨著行業、道路上的車隊走向這個方向，這種情況會隨著時間的推移而發生變化嗎？這對此有貢獻嗎？或者這只是一個非常非常小的問題？

Matt, this is Jeff. So that latter point, it really is not a material issue to us at that point. There's certainly elevated costs for some of those types of vehicles. It's just really not that big a part of our portfolio, frankly. And so I wouldn't say that's the center of our bull's eye.

馬特，這是傑夫。因此，後一點對我們來說確實不是一個實質性問題。其中一些類型的車輛的成本肯定會增加。坦率地說，它在我們的投資組合中所佔的比例並不大。所以我不會說那是我們的靶心中心。

I'll let Dick comment on the PL trends real briefly. But what I would say in the macro is the industry, as you see, is trying to get their arms around, the impact of inflation and supply chain and, frankly, labor shortages that are dragging out some of these claims and making inflation a little bit more stubborn than maybe it otherwise would be.

我會讓迪克簡單地評論一下 PL 趨勢。但我想說的是，在宏觀上，正如你所看到的，該行業正試圖擺脫通貨膨脹和供應鏈的影響，坦率地說，勞動力短缺正在拖延其中一些說法，並使通貨膨脹略有下降。比其他情況下可能更頑固一點。

I think we and most of the industry has just had enough time now to get their arms around all the moving parts that contribute to getting your loss trend analysis, right? So Dick, maybe you could just add to your point.

我認為我們和大多數行業現在已經有足夠的時間來了解所有有助於獲得損失趨勢分析的活動部件，對吧？迪克，也許你可以補充一下你的觀點。

Before I do that on the electric vehicle point, indeed, it's not yet showing through. But it is one we're watching closely because we do know those repairs, the cost of the battery, the materials actually have there an elevated costs. So that's one that I think in the future, we'll watch, and we'll make its way into the pricing.

事實上，在我對電動汽車這一點進行討論之前，它還沒有顯現出來。但這是我們正在密切關注的一個問題，因為我們確實知道這些維修、電池的成本、材料的成本實際上很高。所以我認為未來我們會關注這一點，並將其納入定價中。

A loss trend in general, the themes are still similar, the ACV or the cash value of used cars, new cars, you're seeing some of the wholesale metrics and KPIs coming down, but that's not yet making its way into the retail side. So they're still elevated, but coming down. The real cost pressure is coming on the repairable side.

總體上是虧損趨勢，主題仍然相似，ACV或二手車、新車的現金價值，你會看到一些批髮指標和KPI下降，但這還沒有進入零售方面。所以它們仍然升高，但正在下降。真正的成本壓力來自可修復方面。

So as Jack mentioned, parts -- the labor component is quite sticky. And even as parts and supply chain come down, the labor component probably persist. So we are segmenting our losses very closely to understand how they differentiate and that helps us understand how those losses will develop into the future. But many of the themes stay the same.

正如傑克所提到的，勞動力部分是相當粘性的。即使零部件和供應鏈下降，勞動力部分也可能持續存在。因此，我們正在非常仔細地細分我們的損失，以了解它們如何區分，這有助於我們了解這些損失將如何發展到未來。但許多主題保持不變。

So therefore, the pricing, as you see, we're getting in the book, we will be over loss trend in the second half of the year, and which gives us confidence that we're going to be able to get on top of it.

因此，正如你所看到的，我們在書中看到的定價，我們將在今年下半年超過虧損趨勢，這讓我們有信心我們將能夠超越它。

Our next question comes from Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

Maybe some additional thoughts on what all of these efforts you're doing to reduce cats will have on the top line? Are we seeing that there'll be a meaningful shift in certain lines of business from just a policy perspective? Or is this -- I mean maybe some sizing of how much the nonrenewals might be?

也許還有一些額外的想法，關於您為減少貓的數量所做的所有努力將產生什麼效果？僅從政策角度來看，我們是否看到某些業務領域將會發生有意義的轉變？或者是——我的意思是，也許可以確定不續約的金額？

I think because, Paul, we have been really continuing to cull out certain subsectors of our business, particularly in middle market, that I'm not anticipating a major drop-off in the growth trajectory. As you can see, particularly in middle market, our growth is substantially about pricing and not really about growing new exposures, whereas in small commercial and specialty we're trying to grow the book of business beyond just what the pricing in the marketplace is.

我認為，因為，保羅，我們一直在繼續剔除我們業務的某些子行業，特別是在中間市場，所以我預計增長軌跡不會大幅下滑。正如您所看到的，特別是在中間市場，我們的增長主要與定價有關，而不是真正與增加新業務有關，而在小型商業和專業領域，我們正在努力擴大業務範圍，而不僅僅是市場定價。

So we're -- I think this is a significant actions that we're taking, but the marketplace, as you can expect is getting firmer by the moment. And that's allowing us to get done what we need to get done without removing a ton of business out of the system. I'm hopeful that in some of these subsectors will get more adoption and more compliance with what we're doing. But frankly, if we don't, then we will be more than happy to lose a point or 2 of growth to get the improvement that we're looking for.

所以我們——我認為這是我們正在採取的一項重大行動，但正如你所期望的那樣，市場目前正在變得更加堅挺。這使我們能夠完成我們需要完成的事情，而無需從系統中刪除大量業務。我希望在其中一些子行業中，我們正在做的事情能夠得到更多的採用和遵守。但坦率地說，如果我們不這樣做，那麼我們會非常樂意失去一兩個點的增長來獲得我們正在尋求的改進。

I guess somewhat similarly on the Personal Line side, how much are we talking about geographic mix shift versus other efforts, fairly concentrated in a couple of states? Is that really about getting out of those concentrations? Or is there -- is it much more simplifying?

我想在個人線路方面有些類似，我們在多大程度上談論地理混合轉移與其他努力，相當集中在幾個州？這真的是為了擺脫這些濃度嗎？還是有——它更簡單嗎？

Well, I don't think you're oversimplifying it, but I think that, as you know, we're in 20 states today, and we're pretty substantially driven by Michigan and Massachusetts, despite all the diversification we've done in those other states. We outperform in those states. We're closer to target returns in those states.

嗯，我不認為你過於簡單化了，但我認為，如你所知，我們今天分佈在 20 個州，儘管我們已經實現了多元化，但我們很大程度上是由密歇根州和馬薩諸塞州推動的在其他州。我們在這些州的表現優於其他州。我們更接近這些州的目標回報。

When we look at the catastrophe experience, we have not been outsized in those states vis-a-vis our writings or at least in our estimate of lost share to market share. So I think in the present tense, Paul, you won't see us do anything dramatic from a geographic shift.

當我們審視災難經歷時，我們在這些州的規模並沒有超出我們的著作，或者至少在我們對市場份額損失的估計中。所以我認為，保羅，在現在時態下，你不會看到我們因地理變化而做出任何戲劇性的事情。

And our diversification as a business allows us to think more broadly than just our Personal Lines footprint, right? Heavy emphasis on growing specialty and specialty casualty and small commercial. So I think that buffers the fact that we can continue to diversify the firm without doing something dramatic with our Personal Lines' footprint in the short-term.

作為一家企業，我們的多元化使我們能夠更廣泛地思考，而不僅僅是我們的個人線路足跡，對嗎？重點關注不斷增長的專業和專業傷亡人員以及小型商業人員。因此，我認為這緩衝了這樣一個事實：我們可以繼續實現公司多元化，而無需在短期內對我們的個人線路的足跡做出重大改變。

Our next question comes from Mike Zaremski from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

Lot of great color. A lot of the discussion has been on the inflation side -- I still think on the property side of the portfolio. And by the stock reaction, I think investors are getting comfortable that pricing move in the right direction and you're taking a lot of corrective actions that will have pace.

很多很棒的顏色。很多討論都集中在通脹方面——我仍然認為是投資組合的房地產方面。通過股票的反應，我認為投資者對定價朝著正確的方向發展感到滿意，並且您正在採取大量有節奏的糾正措施。

But I'm just curious, any insights on the liability side of the equation, maybe on commercial lines, is loss cost trend there inching up to? Or are things fairly stable or maybe even better than expected? It looks like reserve releases were -- have been a little bit light in the commercial segment, but maybe that's just because of the property side, too.

但我只是好奇，對等式的責任方面的任何見解，也許在商業方面，損失成本趨勢是否正在緩慢上升？或者情況相當穩定或者甚至比預期更好？看起來商業領域的儲備釋放有點少，但這也許也只是因為房地產方面的原因。

Mike, this is Jack again. I think that's a really appropriate question at this stage of where we are in the business because there's obviously a lot of appropriate focus right now on property, cat and non-cat based on the volatility that we've experienced. And so that is really always at the top of our list in terms of priorities.

邁克，這又是傑克。我認為，在現階段我們所處的業務階段，這是一個非常合適的問題，因為根據我們所經歷的波動性，現在顯然有很多適當的焦點集中在房地產、貓和非貓上。因此，就優先事項而言，這始終是我們的首要任務。

But as we think about our growth into the future, we're also being very mindful of what is happening kind of behind the scenes in liability trends. And it varies across the portfolio, and I won't go too far with this. But there are some areas in specialty, for example, where you know that as things mature management liability in some of those areas. The results have been a little better than we expected, and we've been able to recognize that.

但當我們思考未來的增長時，我們也非常關注責任趨勢幕後正在發生的事情。而且它在不同的產品組合中有所不同，我不會對此說太多。但有一些專業領域，例如，您知道隨著事情的成熟，其中一些領域的管理責任。結果比我們預期的要好一些，我們已經認識到了這一點。

There are other areas and probably commercial auto and to a lesser degree, Personal Lines liability where you're starting to see some inching up of those liability trends pretty consistent with what our expectations were, but there's evidence that as the courts kind of fully reopen, as the cases make their way through the system, there is clear evidence to us and I think the industry that litigation trends and social inflation will emerge to be something that the industry has to reckon with.

還有其他領域，可能是商用汽車，以及較小程度的個人保險責任，您開始看到這些責任趨勢的一些緩慢上升與我們的預期非常一致，但有證據表明，隨著法院全面重新開放隨著案件通過系統，我們有明確的證據，我認為訴訟趨勢和社會通貨膨脹將成為該行業必須考慮的問題。

So what I'm really proud of is our team is all over these trends, and why you can't be perfect. They're much more focused on anticipating where things are going based on some metrics that we've established in each of these areas that are about where the litigation is manifesting itself and how that's turning into kind of severity trends versus just reflecting on past trends. To some degree, are hard to analyze coming out of the pandemic and the most recent environment.

所以我真正感到自豪的是我們的團隊對這些趨勢的了解，以及為什麼你不能做到完美。他們更注重根據我們在每個領域建立的一些指標來預測事情的進展，這些指標是關於訴訟在哪裡顯現以及如何轉變為某種嚴重性趨勢，而不是僅僅反映過去的趨勢。在某種程度上，很難分析大流行和最近的環境。

So overall, liability trends are creeping up, I think, for the industry, and it's something that certainly we're watching very closely.

因此，總體而言，我認為，對於該行業來說，責任趨勢正在逐漸上升，這當然是我們正在密切關注的事情。

Okay. That's helpful. And my final question on the reinsurance side, and I'm cognizant your renewal is coming up, so maybe you don't want to tell us your exact thoughts. But maybe you're willing to shed more light than others, given, I believe, Hanover's reinsurance program has been more profitable for reinsurers and kind of the average -- your average peer. Do you expect the reinsurance renewal to have a potential impact on the income statement as we model things out? Anything we should be thinking about? Or is it kind of a relative nonevent?

好的。這很有幫助。我的最後一個問題是關於再保險方面的，我知道您即將續保，所以也許您不想告訴我們您的確切想法。但也許你願意比其他人透露更多信息，因為我相信漢諾威的再保險計劃對再保險公司和平均水平（你的平均同行）來說更有利可圖。當我們進行建模時，您預計再保險續保會對損益表產生潛在影響嗎？有什麼值得我們思考的嗎？或者說這是一件相對無關緊要的事情？

So as you mentioned, Mike, 7.1% is our property renewal, both the per risk in the cat program. And we were fortunate in 2 respects or maybe 3. Number one, we did a lot more purchasing of cat -- both with the cat bond and higher portions up the top.

正如您提到的，邁克，7.1% 是我們的財產更新，兩者都是巨災計劃中的每種風險。我們在兩個或三個方面都很幸運。第一，我們購買了更多的貓——包括貓債券和頂部的更高部分。

At the 7.1% renewal last year, we buy on a 3-year basis, and we haven't used that treaty since 2005. So the reinsurers have done well on that. We also were fortunate because we could have visibility to the [1/1] renewal. So when we established our plan and our guidance, we built in very extensive increases in the cat program and the property program.

按照去年 7.1% 的續保利率，我們以 3 年為基礎進行購買，自 2005 年以來我們就沒有使用過該條約。因此，再保險公司在這方面做得很好。我們也很幸運，因為我們可以看到 [1/1] 續訂。因此，當我們制定計劃和指導方針時，我們對巨災計劃和財產計劃進行了非常廣泛的增加。

So we're very optimistic that we can renew at the same attachment point, and we've built into our guidance a hefty increase in that program, which we believe to be achievable.

因此，我們非常樂觀地認為我們可以在同一附著點進行更新，並且我們已將大幅增加該計劃納入我們的指導中，我們相信這是可以實現的。

The next question comes from Grace Carter from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

You have mentioned over the past couple of quarters already some re-underwriting actions in certain middle market accounts like you just mentioned. I was curious to which the same account sort have driven the pressure and attritional losses have also driven pressure in catastrophe losses, like, if there should already be any sort of benefit coming through the portfolio on the catastrophe loss side just given the underwriting actions you've already started to take over the past several months?

您在過去幾個季度中提到，正如您剛才提到的那樣，在某些中間市場賬戶中已經採取了一些再承保行動。我很好奇，相同的賬戶類型推動了壓力，而自然損耗損失也推動了巨災損失的壓力，例如，考慮到您的承保行動，巨災損失方面的投資組合是否應該已經有任何形式的收益過去幾個月已經開始接管了嗎？

Yes, Grace, this is Jack. I'll make a couple of comments, and I'm sure Dick will want to chime in here.

是的，格蕾絲，這是傑克。我會發表一些評論，我相信迪克會想在這裡插話。

But there's always an intersection when you're managing down your limits on the larger side of your business to catastrophes, right? I mean catastrophes show up in a variety of different places. And the more limit you have, the more likely you are to catch some large losses when those events happen.

但是，當您在業務的更大範圍內管理限制以應對災難時，總會有一個交叉點，對吧？我的意思是災難會出現在不同的地方。你的限制越多，當這些事件發生時，你就越有可能遭受巨大損失。

So I can't say that precisely, we can go back and say these are the accounts we got rid of, and we would have had a loss there or that they're going to -- by nonrenewing them, we're going to automatically make ourselves less susceptible. But from a modeling perspective, there's clear overlap in the AALs that we see running through the models based on the actions that we've been taking in middle market.

所以我不能準確地說，我們可以回去說這些是我們擺脫的賬戶，我們會在那裡遭受損失，或者他們將會——通過不續訂它們，我們將自動地使我們自己不那麼容易受到影響。但從建模的角度來看，我們看到基於我們在中間市場採取的行動的模型中運行的 AAL 之間存在明顯的重疊。

Yes, exactly. Great. So I would just say in certain geographies, that is your statement is more true. Some pockets of the Midwest and some of the Northeast territories, where we took some action to re-underwrite some property-centric, real estate-centric classes, food manufacturers, some schools, right? Those are some of the same classes that potentially have been hit in the cat -- on the cat side. So it varies by geography this the way I would add some color to.

對，就是這樣。偉大的。所以我只想說，在某些地區，你的說法更正確。在中西部和東北部的一些地區，我們採取了一些行動來重新資助一些以財產為中心、以房地產為中心的課程、食品製造商和一些學校，對嗎？這些是可能在貓身上被擊中的一些相同類別——在貓方面。所以它因地理位置而異，我會添加一些顏色。

Okay. And on specialty lines, it seems like the gap between pricing and premiums written growth grew a little bit this quarter. I know you all mentioned some resegmenting and underwriting actions in the prepared remarks. I was just curious, if you could give us a little bit more color on those and where growth might go for the rest of the year?

好的。在特種產品領域，本季度定價和保費增長之間的差距似乎有所擴大。我知道你們在準備好的發言中都提到了一些重新細分和承保行動。我只是很好奇，您能否給我們更多的信息，以及今年剩餘時間裡的增長可能會走向何方？

Yes. I'm sure Bryan will want to chime in here. But overall, as we said in our prepared remarks, we really are quite happy with the way specialty is developing not only in terms of the results and our ability to continue to grow and diversify the firm, but the impact that it's having on our agents and the value proposition that we present.

是的。我確信布萊恩會想在這裡插話。但總的來說，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們對專業的發展方式感到非常滿意，不僅在結果和我們繼續發展和多元化公司的能力方面，而且在它對我們的代理商的影響方面以及我們提出的價值主張。

But inherent in all of that, as you're seeing, I think, with some of our competitors, you have to have a good healthy offense and defense in your game plan. That's -- specialty can bring additional volatility. And so we're on top of both where we're offensive and where we're more defensive based on where the market is guiding us.

但正如你所看到的，我認為，對於我們的一些競爭對手來說，所有這一切都是固有的，你必須在你的比賽計劃中擁有良好健康的進攻和防守。也就是說——專業化會帶來額外的波動性。因此，根據市場的引導，我們在進攻性和防禦性方面都處於領先地位。

So Bryan, maybe you can chime in there.

布萊恩，也許你可以插話一下。

Yes. I mean first also to echo that; we are pleased with how specialty overall is performing both from a profitability and a growth perspective. And I would add that I'm pleased with the first quarter new business results too, good growth there, that was well in line and better than our expectations.

是的。我的意思是首先也回應這一點；從盈利能力和增長角度來看，我們對專業的整體表現感到滿意。我想補充一點，我對第一季度的新業務業績也很滿意，增長良好，這完全符合併且優於我們的預期。

When I think about where we are driving that growth, we really are staying focused on the areas that are not only very profitable for us, but where the pricing is holding up in the way that we feel good about it, right? So a number of our areas in terms of that is property oriented, but not all, the pricing remains strong, and so we're growing disproportionately there.

當我思考我們在哪些方面推動增長時，我們確實專注於那些不僅對我們來說非常有利可圖的領域，而且價格也保持在讓我們感覺良好的領域，對嗎？因此，我們的許多領域都是以房地產為導向的，但不是全部，定價仍然強勁，因此我們在那裡的增長不成比例。

Where we see a little bit of rate erosion, we're going to be prudent, right? You probably know that if you look at the some of the professional and executive lines and what's called quite a bit is a publicly traded D&O type business when rates have had fallen over a couple of quarters precipitously. And we're watchful of that. And we saw some of that work its way into our boat skews private and smaller to middle market.

當我們看到一點點利率侵蝕時，我們會保持謹慎，對吧？您可能知道，如果您查看一些專業和行政部門，就會發現其中相當一部分是公開交易的 D&O 類型業務，而利率在幾個季度內急劇下降。我們對此保持警惕。我們看到其中一些因素進入了我們的私人市場和中小型市場。

When we see that, we're going to take a pause and look at it and try to hold our pricing closer to trend. And so if that causes us to lose a little ground there, we're okay with that. Overall, the book grew. I like the fact that it grew in the areas that we think are the best places to be growing right now.

當我們看到這一點時，我們將暫停一下並進行研究，並嘗試使我們的定價更接近趨勢。因此，如果這導致我們在這方面失去一點優勢，我們也可以接受。總體而言，這本書有所增長。我喜歡這樣一個事實：它在我們認為目前最適合發展的地區發展。

Our next question comes from Bob Farnam from Janney.

我們的下一個問題來自 Janney 的 Bob Farnam。

I have kind of a nuance question in the margin of the capture plan and Personal Lines. So both Jack and Dick, you mentioned the kind of the rates for both auto and homeowners are going up maybe a few points more quickly than you expected for the back half of the year, and it sounds like they're ahead of loss cost trends.

我在捕獲計劃和個人線路的邊緣有一個細微差別的問題。傑克和迪克，你們提到汽車和房主的利率上升速度可能比你們預計的今年下半年要快幾個百分點，而且聽起來他們領先於損失成本趨勢。

So the question is, do you see the margin improvement coming more quickly because of the change, the higher rates, or is it just a matter of -- it takes time to earn in, but maybe by the end of 2024, the margin improvement overall will be more than you expected because of the rate changes. Just kind of curious what your thoughts were on that.

所以問題是，您是否認為由於變化、更高的利率，利潤率改善會更快，或者這只是一個問題——盈利需要時間，但也許到 2024 年底，利潤率改善由於利率變化，總體而言將超出您的預期。只是有點好奇你對此有何想法。

Bob, this is Jack. I think at the highest level, so much of that depends on where the inflation and supply chain issues take us, right? They are more stubborn than I think anybody expected. Eventually, I think we all know that, that should come down and that should start to be part of the margin improvement, but we frankly can't depend on it. If we've learned anything over the last 3 or 4 quarters is that we have to price as if these are the costs that we have to incur.

鮑勃，這是傑克。我認為在最高層面上，這在很大程度上取決於通貨膨脹和供應鏈問題將我們帶向何方，對嗎？他們比我想像的任何人都更頑固。最終，我想我們都知道，這應該下降，並且應該開始成為利潤率改善的一部分，但坦率地說，我們不能依賴它。如果說我們在過去三四個季度學到了什麼的話，那就是我們必須按照我們必須承擔的成本來定價。

And so in that scenario, I think that the increased pricing that we're experiencing at least covers any gap that might have been created by the inflation being more stubborn. Our hope is that by the back half of the year, we're getting more price than we originally planned for, and the trends themselves start to come -- and come back the other way. So I think to be any more precise than that is probably -- crystal ball than we do.

因此，在這種情況下，我認為我們正在經歷的價格上漲至少彌補了通貨膨脹更加頑固可能造成的任何缺口。我們的希望是，到今年下半年，我們得到的價格會比我們最初計劃的要高，趨勢本身就會開始出現——然後以相反的方式回歸。所以我認為比這更精確的可能是——水​​晶球比我們做的更精確。

The next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

So a quick question for Jeff to start with. So the second quarter cat load or anticipation is still down year-over-year. I'm just hoping you could break that down between sort of the external loss trends of weather inflation and the internal exposure and rate components?

首先向杰夫提出一個簡短的問題。因此，第二季度的貓負荷或預期仍同比下降。我只是希望你能將其分解為天氣通貨膨脹的外部損失趨勢與內部風險和利率組成部分之間的關係？

You're referring to the second quarter, 6% load?

你指的是第二季度6%的負載？

Yes, versus last year, 6.9%.

是的，與去年相比，為 6.9%。

Yes. So we use our models. We've got a best-in-class models. And it happens to be down in the second quarter because of stuff from other quarters. Overall, the cat load is up from 5% to 5.1%. I'd have to go back and see what was driving it down for last year's second quarter, this year second quarter because it's just the particular perils that are modeled and it's not indicative of rate versus loss trend per se.

是的。所以我們使用我們的模型。我們擁有一流的模型。由於其他方面的原因，第二季度的數據恰好有所下降。總體而言，貓負荷從 5% 上升至 5.1%。我必須回去看看是什麼導致了去年第二季度和今年第二季度的下降，因為這只是建模的特定風險，並不表明利率與損失趨勢本身。

Okay. Understood. And then a question for Jack. I'm not in any way questioning the margin focus. But in the medium term, is Hanover interested in building a specialty property underwriting capability so that it can address what seems to be a growing need among the agents?

好的。明白了。然後問傑克一個問題。我不會以任何方式質疑邊緣焦點。但從中期來看，漢諾威是否有興趣建立專業的房地產承保能力，以便能夠滿足代理商日益增長的需求？

Meyer, to be honest with you, I think we have other opportunities to grow our firm and to do that in a way that further diversifies us. We have probably in the top 25 companies as a heavier property mix than most. And so I think optimizing our current portfolio relative to the property market and taking full advantage of the reset that is going on, it's a prudent strategy. And we get motivated to look at growth opportunities that, frankly, help our kind of overall mix and make it less property-centric over time. So we're probably not one of those markets.

邁耶，說實話，我認為我們還有其他機會來發展我們的公司，並以進一步多元化的方式做到這一點。我們的房地產組合可能比大多數公司更重，因此躋身前 25 名公司之列。因此，我認為優化我們當前相對於房地產市場的投資組合併充分利用正在發生的重置，這是一個謹慎的策略。坦率地說，我們有動力去尋找增長機會，這些機會有助於我們的整體組合，並隨著時間的推移減少以房地產為中心的程度。所以我們可能不是這些市場之一。

Now remember, in our specialty business, we have a very significant and very profitable marine business, which is almost exclusively property oriented. We have our Hanover industrial business that is all property and very sophisticated kind of lower end of the ACR market. But I don't see us really leaning into like the layered property market or -- and we do, Bryan, have a portion of our E&S business is in the pretty sector also. To that degree, we are participating in some of that firming market.

現在請記住，在我們的專業業務中，我們擁有非常重要且非常有利可圖的海洋業務，該業務幾乎完全以房地產為導向。我們擁有漢諾威工業業務，該業務是 ACR 市場中所有財產和非常複雜的低端市場。但我認為我們並沒有真正傾向於分層房地產市場，或者——布萊恩，我們的 E&S 業務的一部分也屬於漂亮領域。從這個意義上說，我們正在參與一些堅挺的市場。

And those areas for us have performed quite well over the last year or so. And those areas do continue to grow for us. So -- while we're trying to be very balanced where the growth comes from and have that both mix evolve, the areas that are profitable for us, like the ones that Jack mentioned, are continuing to grow for us.

在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們這些領域的表現相當不錯。這些領域對我們來說確實在持續增長。因此，雖然我們試圖在增長的來源和兩者混合發展方面保持非常平衡，但對我們有利可圖的領域，比如傑克提到的領域，正在繼續為我們增長。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Oksana Lukasheva for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回奧克薩娜·盧卡舍娃 (Oksana Lukasheva) 發表閉幕詞。

Thank you very much, everybody, for a very good discussion today. Looking forward to talking to you next quarter. Bye.

非常感謝大家今天進行了非常好的討論。期待下個季度與您交談。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。