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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Teva fourth-quarter 2016 financial results conference call.
女士們,先生們,感謝你們的支持,歡迎來到 Teva 2016 年第四季度財務業績電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
This conference is being recorded today, Monday, February 13, 2017.
今天,即 2017 年 2 月 13 日,星期一,記錄本次會議。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Kevin Mannix, Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations.
我現在想把會議交給今天的第一位發言人,高級副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Kevin Mannix。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Kevin Mannix - SVP & Head of IR
Kevin Mannix - SVP & Head of IR
Thank you, Lawrence, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today to discuss Teva's fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 financial results.
謝謝勞倫斯,也謝謝大家今天加入我們討論 Teva 2016 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。
On the call with us today are Dr. Sol Barer, Chairman of the Board; Dr. Yitzhak Peterburg, Interim President and CEO; Eyal Desheh, Chief Financial Officer; Dipankar Bhattacharjee, Global Generic Medicines; Dr. Rob Koremans, Global Specialty Medicines; Dr. Michael Hayden, Head of R&D, Chief Scientific Officer; Dr. Carlo de Notaristefani, Global Operations; and David Stark, Chief Legal Officer.
今天與我們通話的有董事會主席 Sol Barer 博士;臨時總裁兼首席執行官 Yitzhak Peterburg 博士; Eyal Desheh,首席財務官; Dipankar Bhattacharjee,全球仿製藥; Rob Koremans 博士,全球專業藥物; Michael Hayden 博士,研發主管、首席科學官; Carlo de Notaristefani 博士,全球運營;和首席法務官 David Stark。
We'll start the call with opening remarks from Dr. Barer, and Dr. Peterburg, followed by a presentation from Eyal.
我們將以 Barer 博士和 Peterburg 博士的開場白開始電話會議,然後是 Eyal 的演講。
We'll then open the call up for questions and answers.
然後我們將打開問題和答案的電話。
A copy of the slides can be found on our website at www.TevaPharm.com, as well as on the Teva Investor Relations App.
可以在我們的網站 www.TevaPharm.com 以及 Teva Investor Relations App 上找到幻燈片的副本。
During this call we will be making forward-looking statements which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events.
在此次電話會議中,我們將做出前瞻性陳述,即對未來事件的預測、預測或其他陳述。
These estimates reflect management's current expectations for Teva's performance.
這些估計反映了管理層目前對 Teva 業績的預期。
Actual results may vary, whether as a result of exchange rate differences, market conditions, or other factors.
實際結果可能會因匯率差異、市場條件或其他因素而有所不同。
In addition, the non GAAP figures exclude amortization of purchased intangible assets, costs related to certain regulatory actions, inventory step up, legal settlements and reserves, impairments, and related tax effects.
此外,非 GAAP 數據不包括已購無形資產的攤銷、與某些監管行動相關的成本、庫存增加、法律結算和準備金、減值以及相關稅收影響。
The non-GAAP data presented by Teva are used by Teva's management and Board of Directors to evaluate the operational performance of the Company, to compare against the Company's work plans and budgets, and ultimately to evaluate the performance of management.
Teva 提供的非 GAAP 數據被 Teva 的管理層和董事會用於評估公司的運營績效,與公司的工作計劃和預算進行比較,並最終評估管理層的績效。
Teva provides such non GAAP data to investors as a supplement of data, and not in substitution or replacement for GAAP results, because management believes such data provides useful information to investors.
Teva 向投資者提供此類非 GAAP 數據作為數據的補充,而不是替代或替換 GAAP 結果,因為管理層認為此類數據為投資者提供了有用的信息。
And with that, I'll now turn the call over to our Chairman, Dr. Sol Barer.
有了這個,我現在將把電話轉給我們的主席 Sol Barer 博士。
Sol, if you would?
索爾,如果你願意?
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Thank you, Kevin, and thank you all for joining us today.
謝謝你,凱文,感謝大家今天加入我們。
Before we get into the details of our full-year 2016 and fourth quarter results, I want to take a few minutes to discuss last week's leadership announcement.
在詳細介紹 2016 年全年和第四季度業績之前,我想花幾分鐘時間討論一下上週的領導層公告。
As you know, we announced that I have been appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors.
如您所知,我們宣布我已被任命為董事會主席。
Dr. Yitzhak Peterburg, who had served as Chairman since January 2015, was appointed Interim President and CEO.
自 2015 年 1 月起擔任董事長的 Yitzhak Peterburg 博士被任命為臨時總裁兼首席執行官。
In addition to my new role as Chairman of the Board of Teva, I have significant Board experience, including serving as Chairman of Celgene Corporation, where I was a Founder.
除了作為 Teva 董事會主席的新角色外,我還擁有豐富的董事會經驗,包括擔任 Celgene Corporation 的董事長,我是該公司的創始人。
Since joining Teva, I've been impressed by the depth and variety of experience and knowledge of the Teva team.
自從加入 Teva 以來,Teva 團隊的經驗和知識的深度和多樣性給我留下了深刻的印象。
We are fortunate to have someone with us, with as much experience as Yitzhak, to lead the Company during this transition period.
我們很幸運能有一位像 Yitzhak 一樣經驗豐富的人在這個過渡時期領導公司。
During his years of service as a member of the Teva management team and Board of Directors, most recently as Chairman, Yitzhak has gained unique insight into the business, strategy and operations.
在擔任 Teva 管理團隊和董事會成員以及最近擔任董事長期間,伊扎克在業務、戰略和運營方面獲得了獨特的見解。
I believe we are both ready to hit the ground running, and to continue working to the benefit of our shareholders and all other stakeholders.
我相信我們都準備好開始行動,並繼續為我們的股東和所有其他利益相關者的利益而努力。
As Interim President and CEO, Yitzhak has the full support of the Board to drive forward on Teva's strategies and key priorities.
作為臨時總裁兼首席執行官,Yitzhak 得到董事會的全力支持,以推動 Teva 的戰略和關鍵優先事項。
While the title may be interim, the job is important and major for Teva.
雖然頭銜可能是臨時的,但這份工作對 Teva 來說非常重要。
The Company cannot stand still.
公司不能停滯不前。
There is too much at stake.
事關重大。
We are looking to Yitzhak until a permanent CEO is found to execute and deliver on Teva's promise to shareholders.
在找到一位常任首席執行官來執行和兌現 Teva 對股東的承諾之前,我們期待 Yitzhak。
The Board has already begun a comprehensive search to identify a permanent CEO with significant pharmaceutical experience.
董事會已經開始全面尋找具有豐富製藥經驗的常任首席執行官。
We will take the time we need, with the assistance of a leading search firm, to identify the best leader to take Teva into the future.
我們將在一家領先的獵頭公司的協助下,花我們需要的時間來確定帶領 Teva 走向未來的最佳領導者。
Before handling the call over to Yitzhak, I want to reinforce my confidence in the future of Teva.
在處理給 Yitzhak 的電話之前,我想增強我對 Teva 未來的信心。
I would not have undertaken the Chairman of the Board if that was not the case, and Teva is a personal priority for me.
如果不是這樣,我不會擔任董事會主席,而 Teva 是我個人的首要任務。
I am fully committed to do everything I can to position Teva for success, and I look forward to working alongside Yitzhak, the rest of the board, and the management team.
我完全致力於盡我所能使 Teva 取得成功,我期待與 Yitzhak、董事會其他成員和管理團隊一起工作。
I know the board, management team and all employees of Teva share my passion about providing the highest-quality medicines for our patients all over the world, and recognize the responsibility of that role.
我知道 Teva 的董事會、管理團隊和所有員工都和我一樣熱衷於為全世界的患者提供最優質的藥物,並認識到這一角色的責任。
In addition, the Board continues to recognize the importance of Teva being a good corporate citizen.
此外,董事會繼續認識到 Teva 成為優秀企業公民的重要性。
This is critical for us, and everything we do needs to be looked at within that context.
這對我們來說至關重要,我們所做的一切都需要在這個背景下進行審視。
Simply said, we are committed to doing business the right way.
簡而言之,我們致力於以正確的方式開展業務。
Lastly, I want to thank all of our employees for their commitment and dedication to Teva, and for providing solutions to patients.
最後,我要感謝我們所有的員工對 Teva 的承諾和奉獻,以及為患者提供解決方案。
We look forward to earning the trust of all our shareholders, and significantly intensifying our efforts towards execution, and enhancing value for all our stakeholders.
我們期待贏得所有股東的信任,並顯著加強我們的執行力度,並為所有利益相關者提升價值。
I will now turn the call over to Yitzhak.
我現在將把電話轉給伊扎克。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Thank you, Sol, and hello, everyone.
謝謝你,索爾,大家好。
I know that the Board has put their trust in me, and I hope that over the next few months, I will earn your trust as well, while the Board is conducting the comprehensive search for a new CEO.
我知道董事會信任我,我希望在接下來的幾個月裡,在董事會全面物色新 CEO 的同時,我也能贏得你們的信任。
Let's start by quickly reviewing what has not changed, so that we can move the discussion to what is going to change.
讓我們首先快速回顧一下未更改的內容,以便我們可以將討論轉移到將要更改的內容上。
The Company's priorities continue to be extracting all synergies related to the Actavis generic acquisition, successfully launching the key generic and specialty products we have planned for 2017, and generating significant cash flow to rapidly pay down our existing debt to maintain a strong balance sheet.
公司的優先事項繼續是提取與 Actavis 仿製藥收購相關的所有協同效應,成功推出我們計劃在 2017 年推出的主要仿製藥和特種產品,並產生大量現金流以快速償還現有債務以維持強勁的資產負債表。
We are reiterating our guidance for 2017, including our earnings per share of $4.90 to $5.30.
我們重申 2017 年的指引,包括每股收益 4.90 美元至 5.30 美元。
We are very committed to this EPS range, and the management team and I will do what it takes to protect it, including additional cost reduction if necessary.
我們非常致力於這個 EPS 範圍,我和管理團隊將盡一切努力保護它,包括必要時額外降低成本。
When I accepted this position, I stated that we would conduct a total review of the business, and this process is already under way.
當我接受這個職位時,我表示我們將對業務進行全面審查,這個過程已經在進行中。
We will be looking at every part of our business, including our current global manufacturing footprint, key therapeutic areas, pipeline assets in both specialty and generics, and existing business lines and markets.
我們將審視我們業務的每個部分,包括我們目前的全球製造足跡、關鍵治療領域、專業和仿製藥的管道資產,以及現有的業務線和市場。
As we have previously stated, 2017 is an important year for Copaxone.
正如我們之前所說,2017 年對 Copaxone 來說是重要的一年。
Since our January 6 guidance call, we have received a decision from the District Court invalidating four of our five Orange Book patents.
自我們 1 月 6 日的指導電話會議以來,我們已收到地方法院的一項判決,宣布我們的五項橙皮書專利中的四項無效。
Based on the court decision and further analysis, we have revisited our assumptions for Copaxone, and are now providing the following update.
根據法院判決和進一步分析,我們重新審視了我們對 Copaxone 的假設,現提供以下更新。
While we are appealing the court decision, the following remains uncertain.
雖然我們正在對法院判決提出上訴,但以下內容仍不確定。
The outcome of the appeals decision and other patent enforcement efforts, if and when we may see approval of competitors purported generic products, and if they will launch at risk.
上訴決定和其他專利執法工作的結果,我們是否以及何時可以看到競爭對手聲稱的仿製藥產品獲得批准,以及它們是否會面臨風險。
With the introduction of generics, we would anticipate continued sales erosion, due to the increased competition.
隨著仿製藥的推出,我們預計由於競爭加劇,銷售額將繼續下降。
Based on our most current insights and the future anticipated growth in the neurology space, we now plan to have larger than anticipated sales and marketing expenses.
根據我們最新的見解和神經病學領域未來的預期增長,我們現在計劃擁有比預期更大的銷售和營銷費用。
The situation is extremely dynamic.
情況非常動態。
In case of generic competition, as of February 2017, for the 40-milligram we would expect a reduction to our base case of $1 billion to $1.3 billion of revenues, and of $0.75 to $0.95 in EPS.
在仿製藥競爭的情況下,截至 2017 年 2 月,對於 40 毫克,我們預計我們的基本情況將減少 10 億至 13 億美元的收入,以及 0.75 至 0.95 美元的每股收益。
As you very well know, 2016 was an extremely challenging year for Teva, on many different fronts.
眾所周知,2016 年對 Teva 來說是極具挑戰性的一年,在許多不同的方面。
I would like to personally thank the employees of Teva.
我要親自感謝 Teva 的員工。
We want to recognize their hard work and commitment to realizing the full potential of Teva, and their drive to help improve the lives of millions of patients around the world.
我們要表彰他們為充分發揮 Teva 潛力所做的辛勤工作和承諾,以及他們為改善全球數百萬患者的生活而付出的努力。
And with that, I will now turn the call over to Eyal, who will provide an in-depth review of our fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 results, and then we will be happy to take your questions.
有了這個,我現在將把電話轉給 Eyal,他將對我們 2016 年第四季度和全年的業績進行深入審查,然後我們很樂意回答您的問題。
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Thank you, Yitzhak and I wish you and all of us a lot of success.
謝謝你,Yitzhak,祝你和我們所有人都取得成功。
Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone.
大家早上好,下午好。
I would like to review the financial and business highlights of Q4 and 2016, and I will start with the quarter.
我想回顧一下 2016 年第 4 季度的財務和業務亮點,我將從本季度開始。
We present both GAAP and non-GAAP results.
我們同時提供 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果。
On a GAAP basis, the quarter resulted in a loss of $973 million, due to a significant number of one-time charges, which I will review in a few slides.
根據公認會計原則,由於大量的一次性費用,本季度虧損 9.73 億美元,我將在幾張幻燈片中對此進行回顧。
Our highlights for the quarter include revenues of $6.5 billion, and earnings per share of $1.38 on a non-GAAP basis.
我們本季度的亮點包括 65 億美元的收入和非 GAAP 每股收益 1.38 美元。
As you can see, on a non-GAAP basis, our profit and EBITDA were up about 30% compared to Q4 last year, all driven by inorganic growth, related mostly to the Actavis acquisition, and also to the joint venture with Takeda in Japan.
如您所見,在非 GAAP 基礎上,我們的利潤和 EBITDA 與去年第四季度相比增長了約 30%,這都是由無機增長推動的,主要與收購 Actavis 以及與日本武田的合資企業有關.
Let's look at the major charges and adjustments that we had to non-GAAP in our financial statements.
讓我們看看我們在財務報表中必須對非 GAAP 進行的主要費用和調整。
In our non-GAAP P&L, we reported a loss of $973 million this quarter.
在我們的非 GAAP 損益表中,我們報告本季度虧損 9.73 億美元。
This loss was driven mainly by the following one item charges which we adjusted in our non-GAAP report.
這一損失主要是由我們在非 GAAP 報告中調整的以下一項費用造成的。
One, a $900 million impairment of the Rimsa goodwill.
第一,Rimsa 商譽減值 9 億美元。
Following the acquisition of Rimsa, we discovered a significant fraud related mostly to product registration, testing and manufacturing processes, and we are working diligently with the local health authorities to remediate it.
在收購 Rimsa 之後,我們發現了一個主要與產品註冊、測試和製造過程有關的重大欺詐行為,我們正在與當地衛生部門積極合作以進行補救。
We recently received an approval to activate the plant, and we will soon begin ramping up production.
我們最近獲得了啟動該工廠的批准,我們將很快開始提高產量。
We strongly believe in this opportunity in the Mexican market; however the time to market we lost and the costs of remediation led us to impair the acquired goodwill by $900 million.
我們堅信墨西哥市場的這個機會;然而,我們損失的上市時間和補救成本導致我們損失了 9 億美元的商譽。
In Venezuela, we made changes to the exchange rates we used in our accounting, and this drove a financial expense charge of $500 million.
在委內瑞拉,我們更改了我們在會計中使用的匯率,這帶來了 5 億美元的財務費用。
We also reduced the inventory value by $133 million for the same reason.
出於同樣的原因,我們還減少了 1.33 億美元的存貨價值。
Number three, this is a place to update that to date we sold approximately 75% of the Mylan shares we held, the majority since the beginning of this year.
第三,這是一個更新的地方,到目前為止,我們出售了我們持有的大約 75% 的 Mylan 股份,這是自今年年初以來的大部分股份。
Adjusting current market price to the book value resulted in a finance expense of $43 million.
將當前市場價格調整為賬面價值導致財務費用為 4300 萬美元。
Number four, in January, we settled a legacy Barr antitrust case for $225 million, and the outcome is included in the Q4 results.
第四,1 月份,我們以 2.25 億美元了結了 Barr 遺留反壟斷案,結果包含在第四季度的業績中。
And five, amortization of intangible assets this quarter were $182 million.
五、本季度無形資產攤銷為1.82億美元。
This number does not represent our future run rate, and was driven by the progress made on the Actavis purchase price allocation.
這個數字並不代表我們未來的運行率,而是受 Actavis 購買價格分配取得的進展推動的。
Future run rate is expected to be about $360 million per quarter.
未來的運行率預計約為每季度 3.6 億美元。
Exchange rate impact.
匯率影響。
Exchange rate differences between the first quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2015 decreased revenues by $41 million, decreased GAAP operating income by $14 million, and decreased non-GAAP operating income by $9 million.
2016 年第一季度和 2015 年第四季度之間的匯率差異導致收入減少 4100 萬美元,GAAP 營業收入減少 1400 萬美元,非 GAAP 營業收入減少 900 萬美元。
In addition, the Venezuela bolivar exchange rate that we use, and inflation-driven price increases in Venezuela increased revenues by $184 million, decreased GAAP operating income by $34 million, and increased non-GAAP operating income, by $75 million.
此外,我們使用的委內瑞拉玻利瓦爾匯率以及委內瑞拉通貨膨脹驅動的價格上漲使收入增加了 1.84 億美元,使 GAAP 營業收入減少了 3400 萬美元,使非 GAAP 營業收入增加了 7500 萬美元。
In light of the economic condition in Venezuela, we exclude the 2016 changes in revenue and operating profit in any discussion of the currency effect.
鑑於委內瑞拉的經濟狀況,我們在討論貨幣影響時排除了 2016 年收入和營業利潤的變化。
We saw similar effects on our non GAAP operating income, while both impacts were negative on operating income on a GAAP basis, also.
我們對我們的非 GAAP 營業收入產生了類似的影響,而這兩種影響對按 GAAP 計算的營業收入也產生了負面影響。
As reported before, as of December 1, 2016, we are no longer using an exchange rate of VEF10 which is the preferred exchange rate, but a blended rate, which was VEF273 per $1.
如前所述,截至 2016 年 12 月 1 日,我們不再使用首選匯率 VEF10 的匯率,而是使用混合匯率,即每 1 美元 VEF273。
The new rate had a significant adverse impact on the value of our working capital assets in Venezuela.
新利率對我們在委內瑞拉的營運資本資產的價值產生了重大不利影響。
EBITDA.
EBITDA。
Our Q4 EBITDA was $2.1 billion, the last four quarters totaled $7.3 billion.
我們第四季度的 EBITDA 為 21 億美元,過去四個季度總計 73 億美元。
And our cash flow from operations stood at $1.4 billion this quarter.
本季度我們的運營現金流為 14 億美元。
Net Capital Expenditures were $319 million.
淨資本支出為 3.19 億美元。
This number did not include any cash from divestiture related to the Actavis acquisition.
該數字不包括與 Actavis 收購相關的資產剝離現金。
At the end of 2016, our total debt was $35.8 billion.
2016 年底,我們的總債務為 358 億美元。
Our debt to EBITDA stood at 4.87 times, and net debt to EBITDA, which is used for complying with the bank debt covenant, stood at 4.72 times for the past four quarters.
過去四個季度,我們對 EBITDA 的債務為 4.87 倍,用於遵守銀行債務契約的淨債務對 EBITDA 為 4.72 倍。
We are updating our segmentation reporting.
我們正在更新我們的細分報告。
As a result of an analysis following the acquisition of Actavis generics, we have revised our reporting segment and we now have two segments.
根據收購 Actavis 仿製藥後的分析結果,我們修改了報告分部,現在我們有兩個分部。
Generics and OTC, and specialty.
仿製藥和非處方藥,以及專業藥。
Our distribution and other activities, including Anda, are reported separately.
我們的分銷和其他活動,包括 Anda,均單獨報告。
This has made minimal effect on the profitability of our generics segment, as you will see in a few more slides.
正如您將在更多幻燈片中看到的那樣,這對我們仿製藥部門的盈利能力影響微乎其微。
Starting with the first quarter of 2017, we will not provide Actavis Generics contribution on a standalone basis, as a result of the integration between Actavis Generics and our existing generics business, such figures are no longer meaningful.
從 2017 年第一季度開始,我們將不再單獨提供 Actavis Generics 的貢獻,因為 Actavis Generics 與我們現有的仿製藥業務整合,這些數字不再有意義。
Actavis contribution to the generic revenues after divestitures is $600 million in the US, and $360 million in Europe, $150 million in the rest of the world.
Actavis 在剝離後對仿製藥收入的貢獻在美國為 6 億美元,在歐洲為 3.6 億美元,在世界其他地區為 1.5 億美元。
In Q4 2016, our US business accounted for 53% of our sales, Europe was 24%, and the rest of the world was 23% of our total sales.
2016 年第四季度,我們的美國業務占我們銷售額的 53%,歐洲佔 24%,世界其他地區占我們總銷售額的 23%。
Generic sales accounted for 57% of our total, an increase compared to last year.
仿製藥銷售額占我們總銷售額的 57%,比去年有所增加。
Copaxone sales up $55 million compared to Q4 2015, were 16% of our total sales, compared to 20% last year.
與 2015 年第四季度相比,Copaxone 的銷售額增加了 5500 萬美元,占我們總銷售額的 16%,而去年為 20%。
The increase in our operating profit was driven mainly by our generic business, following the closing of the Actavis transaction.
在 Actavis 交易結束後,我們的營業利潤增長主要是由我們的仿製藥業務推動的。
We also saw improvement from the specialty business.
我們還看到了專業業務的改善。
Generic profits were 48% of our operating profit before G&A.
在 G&A 之前,通用利潤占我們營業利潤的 48%。
Copaxone profit increased by $100 million compared to last year, but were down to 36% of total operating profit from the Company, as compared to being 40% last year.
與去年相比,Copaxone 利潤增加了 1 億美元,但下降至公司總營業利潤的 36%,而去年為 40%。
On this slide, generics includes OTC, but those of you who are familiar with Teva's results, we know that the differences in profitability are minor, as the profitability of generics and OTC at Teva are very similar.
在這張幻燈片上,仿製藥包括 OTC,但熟悉 Teva 結果的人都知道,盈利能力的差異很小,因為 Teva 的仿製藥和 OTC 的盈利能力非常相似。
Gross profit was 49.4%, and operating profit was 28.9%.
毛利為49.4%,營業利潤為28.9%。
In Q4, our sales and marketing expenses are usually seasonally higher than in other quarters.
在第四季度,我們的銷售和營銷費用通常季節性高於其他季度。
Copaxone continued to perform well, exceeding Q4 2015 sales results by $55 million, and totaling $1.015 billion for the quarter.
Copaxone 繼續表現良好,超過 2015 年第四季度銷售額 5500 萬美元,該季度總計 10.15 億美元。
Now, let's look at the year-to-date results.
現在,讓我們看看年初至今的結果。
In our 2016 GAAP results, we generated a net income of $329 million, due mostly to the Q4 one-time charges which I described earlier.
在我們 2016 年的 GAAP 結果中,我們產生了 3.29 億美元的淨收入,這主要是由於我之前描述的第四季度一次性費用。
2016 net revenues were up 11% year over year.
2016 年淨收入同比增長 11%。
Our non GAAP net income in 2016 was $5.2 billion, 12% higher than in 2015.
我們 2016 年的非 GAAP 淨收入為 52 億美元,比 2015 年高出 12%。
The full-year non-GAAP adjustment, which is represented on this slide, were mostly influenced by the decision made in the fourth quarter as I described earlier.
這張幻燈片中顯示的全年非 GAAP 調整主要受到我之前所述的第四季度決策的影響。
Notable adjustments in the first three quarters of the year were the FCPA settlement, investment in Regeneron, and income generated from the divestitures driven by Actavis deal, which were also adjusted in our results.
今年前三個季度的顯著調整是 FCPA 和解、對 Regeneron 的投資以及 Actavis 交易驅動的資產剝離產生的收入,我們的業績也進行了調整。
Exchange rate differences between 2016 and 2015 for the whole year, decreased revenue by $174 million, decreased GAAP operating income by $81 million, and decreased non GAAP operating income by $55 million.
2016 年和 2015 年全年的匯率差異導致收入減少 1.74 億美元,GAAP 營業收入減少 8100 萬美元,非 GAAP 營業收入減少 5500 萬美元。
Generic sales in 2016 accounted for 55% of our total sales, and Copaxone was 19% of sales, and specialties accounted for 20%.
2016 年仿製藥銷售額占我們總銷售額的 55%,Copaxone 佔銷售額的 19%,專科佔 20%。
Looking at profit, operating profit before G&A and our generic business were 41% of total, and Copaxone accounted for 43% for the total year.
從利潤來看,在 G&A 和我們的仿製藥業務之前的營業利潤佔總利潤的 41%,而 Copaxone 佔全年的 43%。
Our balance sheet reflects the impact of the Actavis acquisition.
我們的資產負債表反映了收購 Actavis 的影響。
Total sales were $93 billion, with significant growth in goodwill and intangible assets, resulting from the progress made on the Actavis acquisition versus price allocation.
總銷售額為 930 億美元,商譽和無形資產顯著增長,這得益於 Actavis 收購與價格分配取得的進展。
2017 guidance, as you have heard from Yitzhak, we are reaffirming our guidance today.
2017 年指導,正如您從 Yitzhak 那裡聽到的那樣,我們今天重申我們的指導。
Our guidance is based on the assumption that we will not see generic competition to Copaxone this year; however, these possibilities do exist, and in my next slide will indicate what could be the impact of a generic launch.
我們的指導基於這樣的假設,即我們今年不會看到針對 Copaxone 的仿製藥競爭;然而,這些可能性確實存在,在我的下一張幻燈片中,我將指出通用發布可能產生的影響。
So potential impact of one to two generic competitors to Copaxone 40 milligrams launching in February 2017 in the United States could reduce revenues by $1 billion to $1.3 billion.
因此,一到兩個仿製藥競爭對手對 2017 年 2 月在美國推出的 Copaxone 40 毫克的潛在影響可能會使收入減少 10 億美元至 13 億美元。
We are maintaining a higher level of expenses to support sales, compared to what we had in the January guidance, and we estimate earnings per share decrease of $0.75 to $0.95 if this happens immediately.
與我們在 1 月份的指導中相比,我們維持更高水平的支出來支持銷售,我們估計如果立即發生這種情況,每股收益將下降 0.75 美元至 0.95 美元。
On the quarterly progression for the year, Q1 is expected to be the lowest of the four quarters.
從今年的季度進展來看,第一季度預計將是四個季度中最低的。
We estimate that 40% of our 2017 EPS will be generated in the first half, Q1 and Q2, and 60% in the second half.
我們估計我們 2017 年 EPS 的 40% 將在上半年、Q1 和 Q2 產生,60% 將在下半年產生。
This is due to the fact that a majority of the US generic launches are expected only in the second half of 2017, and the progression of cost savings and synergies throughout the year will result in lower cost base in the second half.
這是因為大多數美國仿製藥預計只會在 2017 年下半年推出,而全年成本節約和協同效應的進展將導致下半年成本基數降低。
And last but not least, dividend.
最後但同樣重要的是,股息。
Our Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.34 for ordinary shares or ADS, the same as in the past fourth quarter.
我們的董事會批准了普通股或 ADS 的季度股息 0.34 美元,與去年第四季度相同。
So that concludes my comments and remarks.
我的評論和評論到此結束。
Thank you very much, and then, we would like to open the call for questions.
非常感謝,然後,我們想打開問題電話。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Your first question comes from the line of Gregg Gilbert.
你的第一個問題來自 Gregg Gilbert。
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
My first question is about the CEO search.
我的第一個問題是關於 CEO 搜尋的。
How comprehensive will that search be?
該搜索將有多全面?
You described it as comprehensive.
你形容它很全面。
Are there any strings attached, such as requirement for the CEO to live in Israel?
是否有任何附加條件,例如要求首席執行官居住在以色列?
And Dr. Barer, you've been associated with a very successful Company, that's created a lot of shareholder value over time.
Barer 博士,你曾與一家非常成功的公司有過聯繫,隨著時間的推移,這家公司創造了很多股東價值。
Other than switching the person at the top at Teva, what is Teva lacking?
除了更換 Teva 的高層人員,Teva 還缺少什麼?
What does it really need in your view?
在您看來,它真正需要什麼?
You were complimentary of Teva in your prepared comments, but perhaps you could be more critical about what's missing, and what needs to be done, other than finding the right CEO.
你在準備好的評論中對 Teva 表示讚賞,但除了找到合適的 CEO 之外,你可能會對缺少的東西和需要做的事情更加挑剔。
And my follow-up is on the exploring options for your assets.
我的後續行動是探索您的資產的選項。
Will any of that happen before a new CEO is identified, and can you be more specific about what you are considering, along the lines of things that could be done sooner than later?
這些事情會在新 CEO 確定之前發生嗎?你能否更具體地說明你正在考慮的事情,以及早晚可以做的事情?
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Okay so there's a bunch of questions there.
好的,所以那裡有很多問題。
Let me personally focus on the first one, in terms of the CEO search.
讓我個人關注第一個,就 CEO 搜索而言。
As I indicated, our objective and actually my highest priority, is to find the best candidate for Teva, literally in the world.
正如我所指出的,我們的目標,實際上是我的最高優先級,是在世界範圍內為 Teva 找到最佳候選人。
So we have a global search going on, and without enumerating all of the qualities and so on in light of what is self-evident, and I think it's important to people to recognize we want somebody with deep and broad pharmaceutical experience that can lead Teva, and take us to the next level as a Company.
因此,我們正在進行全球搜索,沒有根據不言而喻的情況列舉所有品質等,我認為人們必須認識到我們需要具有深厚而廣泛的製藥經驗的人來領導 Teva ,並將我們作為一家公司提升到一個新的水平。
So that's the most important thing.
所以這是最重要的事情。
Everything else can be worked out, but just to recognize that I am personally involved, I am personally leading this, and that I am committed to bringing the absolute best person from anywhere to head Teva.
其他一切都可以解決,但要認識到我親自參與,我親自領導這件事,我致力於從任何地方帶來絕對最好的人來領導 Teva。
That was question number one.
這是第一個問題。
Question number two is, I've been fortunate to have led Celgene, which has had tremendous success, significant success, and it didn't used to do so, with my colleagues who are still running the Company.
第二個問題是,我很幸運能與仍在經營公司的同事一起領導 Celgene,它取得了巨大的成功,而且過去並不如此。
As I look at Teva, I see really significant assets.
當我看梯瓦時,我看到了非常重要的資產。
The number of people, the millions and millions and millions of people touched every day by Teva and Teva prescriptions are actually a real asset, a strategic asset.
每天接觸 Teva 和 Teva 處方的人數,數以百萬計的人實際上是一項真正的資產,一項戰略資產。
There are a number of strategic assets.
有許多戰略資產。
I just think we have to get the right leadership, who will then institute the right strategy, to harness the very good people at Teva.
我只是認為我們必須得到正確的領導,然後他們將製定正確的戰略,以利用 Teva 的優秀人才。
I have to tell you, I've been extremely impressed in terms of the caliber of the people.
我必須告訴你,人們的才幹給我留下了極其深刻的印象。
I think we just need to focus, get our strategy right, and move forward.
我認為我們只需要集中精力,制定正確的戰略,然後繼續前進。
But that's the secret of managing a lot of large companies and the last point was--
但這是管理很多大公司的秘訣,最後一點是——
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
Exploring options.
探索選項。
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
So before I turn it over to Yitzhak, did I answer your questions?
所以在我把它交給 Yitzhak 之前,我有沒有回答你的問題?
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
Yes, thank you.
是的,謝謝。
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Okay, thank you.
好的謝謝你。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Gregg, so regarding your last question, I said it and I reiterated that we are committed to a thorough review of the business.
Gregg,所以關於你的最後一個問題,我說過並且我重申我們致力於對業務進行徹底審查。
This is a critical time for Teva, and we are here to fix what is not working, and as I have said, we will leave no stone unturned.
對於 Teva 來說,這是一個關鍵時刻,我們來這裡是為了解決不起作用的問題,正如我所說的,我們將不遺餘力。
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
Gregg Gilbert - Analyst
Thank you, gentlemen.
謝謝你們,先生們。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your next question comes from the line of Elliott Wilbur.
你的下一個問題來自 Elliott Wilbur。
Elliot Wilbur - Analyst
Elliot Wilbur - Analyst
I didn't catch it in your prepared commentary if you detailed or not, but could you talk about some of the factors specifically underlying the change in the potential bottom line impact, from the assumption of generic competition around Copaxone?
無論您是否詳細說明,我都沒有在您準備好的評論中看到它,但是您能否從圍繞 Copaxone 的仿製藥競爭的假設中談談潛在底線影響變化的一些具體因素?
I think roughly $0.10 to $0.15.
我認為大約是 0.10 美元到 0.15 美元。
You mentioned something about higher expenses being maintained with that franchise.
你提到了關於該特許經營權維持的更高費用的事情。
Just curious what is driving that specifically?
只是好奇是什麼驅動了它?
And then just as a follow-up to that, outside of the US can you just remind us if there's any key LOE or loss of exclusivity or potential generic competition in any of the key markets in either 2017 or 2018 we should be thinking about?
然後作為後續行動,在美國以外的地方,如果我們應該考慮在 2017 年或 2018 年的任何關鍵市場中是否存在任何關鍵的 LOE 或排他性喪失或潛在的仿製藥競爭,您能否提醒我們?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
Elliot, it's Rob.
埃利奧特,是羅伯。
Happy to answer.
樂於回答。
So what we have had recent insights coming from patients and physicians, research and payer research suggests very clearly that when forced to use a generic of Copaxone, about 70% of patients and doctors would opt to an oral therapy, rather than to a generic.
因此,我們最近從患者和醫生、研究和付款人研究中獲得的見解非常清楚地表明,當被迫使用 Copaxone 仿製藥時,大約 70% 的患者和醫生會選擇口服療法,而不是仿製藥。
We believe and as you well know, Copaxone is the number one in new patients, not only in the US, but also in some of the key European markets.
我們相信,正如您所知,Copaxone 不僅在美國,而且在一些主要的歐洲市場,在新患者中排名第一。
It's in our best interest, given the fact that we will appeal, to continue to protect both the Copaxone but also the Glatiramer market, to make sure that when successful in an appeal, actually, there is a switch back.
考慮到我們將上訴的事實,繼續保護 Copaxone 和 Glatiramer 市場符合我們的最大利益,以確保在上訴成功時,實際上,有一個轉換回來。
So looking at all of the options, it just financially made more sense to continue to really protect the prescription and continue to drive this.
所以看看所有的選擇,繼續真正保護處方並繼續推動這一點在經濟上更有意義。
We've done this very thorough analysis, and this is what the result is, right?
我們已經進行了非常徹底的分析,這就是結果,對嗎?
So we are optimistic about potential outcome, and as long as there is a fair chance, this is really financially the best option going forward.
因此,我們對潛在結果持樂觀態度,只要有公平的機會,這在財務上確實是未來的最佳選擇。
As to Europe, Copaxone 40 three times a week is doing extremely well.
至於歐洲,Copaxone 40 每週 3 次效果非常好。
Also in countries like Germany, this is the number-one product in new patients.
同樣在德國等國家,這是新患者中排名第一的產品。
We continue to see an uptick very much like what you have in the US, in the switch from the 20 to the 40-milligram.
在從 20 毫克到 40 毫克的轉變中,我們繼續看到與美國非常相似的上升趨勢。
The situation in Europe is very different, in terms of legal and regulatory.
就法律和監管而言,歐洲的情況非常不同。
There is one so-called generic on the market.
市場上有一種所謂的仿製藥。
They had to do their own clinical trials showing some sort of efficacy and safety, and it's not an A-B rated, it's not a substitution generic, so it's a follow on generic.
他們必須自己進行臨床試驗來證明某種有效性和安全性,而且它不是 A-B 級,它不是替代仿製藥,所以它是仿製藥的後續產品。
It's on the market already and we've seen minor impacts, and frankly we expect to see minor impacts going forward.
它已經上市,我們已經看到了輕微的影響,坦率地說,我們希望看到未來的輕微影響。
So Copaxone is actually developing really well in Europe, and continues to do so.
所以 Copaxone 實際上在歐洲發展得非常好,並且會繼續這樣做。
We just recently launched in France.
我們最近剛剛在法國推出。
Also significant market and everything is well on track, the team is really motivated.
同樣重要的市場和一切都在軌道上,團隊真的很有動力。
Generics will be there, but they aren't going to impact the business as we expect.
仿製藥將會存在,但它們不會像我們預期的那樣影響業務。
Any other, Azilect has already come off patent, so actually in the foreseeable future in Europe, we don't expect any other loss of exclusivities.
任何其他的,Azilect 已經失去了專利,所以實際上在可預見的未來在歐洲,我們預計不會有任何其他的排他性損失。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your next question comes from the line of Randall Stanicky.
你的下一個問題來自 Randall Stanicky。
Randall Stanicky - Analyst
Randall Stanicky - Analyst
Just a question on the strategic review that you're running now.
只是關於您現在正在進行的戰略審查的問題。
Why run that now, as opposed to waiting for a new CEO to come on board?
為什麼現在就運行它,而不是等待新的 CEO 上任?
And then just how bold in terms of changes would Teva be willing to make, with respect to changes in the strategy?
那麼 Teva 在戰略變化方面願意做出多大膽的變化?
Would you be willing to look at breaking up pieces of the Company, or should we view this review as more of a tweaking of the existing strategy?
您是否願意考慮拆分公司,或者我們是否應該將這次審查視為對現有戰略的調整?
And then the follow-up, I just noticed that you're talking with respect to Copaxone competition now in terms of one to two generic competitors, versus two.
然後是後續行動,我只是注意到你現在談論的是關於 Copaxone 競爭的一到兩個通用競爭對手,而不是兩個。
Is there any significance behind that clarification?
這種澄清背後有什麼意義嗎?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
So I want to make clear that we are very focused on execution, and we are committed, that is what I said, that we are committed to a thorough review of all the business.
所以我想明確表示,我們非常專注於執行,我們承諾,這就是我所說的,我們致力於對所有業務進行徹底審查。
It has been seven days since I became CEO, and as you know, I can not give you specifics at this time.
我成為 CEO 已經 7 天了,如你所知,我現在不能給你具體的細節。
As I mentioned I'm going to dig deep into the business, meet with our businesses, and determine our path to move forward.
正如我提到的,我將深入研究業務,與我們的業務會面,並確定我們前進的道路。
Rob?
搶?
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
With relation to the Copaxone, there's no new, this is a very dynamic market, right?
關於 Copaxone,沒有新的,這是一個非常有活力的市場,對吧?
And it's a bit of a crystal ball.
這有點像水晶球。
We always planned for one or two, which if at all would be the most likely thing to happen, and that's the range.
我們總是計劃一兩個,如果有的話,這也是最有可能發生的事情,這就是范圍。
What has changed is our insight into what we want to do, in order to protect Copaxone in 2017 pending the appeal.
改變的是我們對我們想要做什麼的洞察力,以便在 2017 年保護 Copaxone 等待上訴。
Randall Stanicky - Analyst
Randall Stanicky - Analyst
Could I ask a follow-up?
我可以問後續嗎?
With a new CEO coming on Board, would it be expected that CEO would take a Board seat as well with Teva?
隨著新 CEO 的加入,是否預計 CEO 也會像 Teva 一樣佔據董事會席位?
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Yes, it would be.
是的,會的。
He or she would.
他或她會的。
Randall Stanicky - Analyst
Randall Stanicky - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Schott.
你的下一個問題來自 Chris Schott。
Chris Schott - Analyst
Chris Schott - Analyst
Just two quick questions.
只是兩個簡單的問題。
Just on the topic of potentially splitting Teva into a branded and generic Company, there's been a lot of discussion about this around the street, just your view here.
關於可能將 Teva 拆分為一家品牌和通用公司的話題,街上已經有很多關於這個的討論,這裡只是你的觀點。
Does that one, structurally make any sense?
那一個在結構上有意義嗎?
Could you split the business into two if you wanted to?
如果你願意,你能把公司一分為二嗎?
And second, strategically, I know you're just starting this process, but do you see any merit of looking at the businesses separately, to allow maybe a more focused approach to each of the franchises?
其次,從戰略上講,我知道您才剛剛開始這個過程,但是您是否認為單獨查看業務有什麼好處,以便對每個特許經營權採取更有針對性的方法?
My second question was just about leverage in 2017.
我的第二個問題是關於 2017 年的槓桿率。
To the extent we see generic competition to Copaxone, does that change any of your strategic priorities or commitment to the dividend, in the event that we do see EBITDA under pressure with competition?
就我們看到 Copaxone 的通用競爭而言,如果我們確實看到 EBITDA 面臨競爭壓力,這是否會改變您的任何戰略重點或對股息的承諾?
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
So again I'm not going to speculate, and I want to make sure that we are now focusing on execution, we are focusing on really doing the best we can now.
所以我不想再猜測了,我想確保我們現在專注於執行,我們專注於真正做到最好。
And while doing the thorough reviews that I promised we will make sure that we are going to fix what's needed, and I think by that, it's enough.
在進行我承諾的徹底審查的同時,我們將確保我們將解決需要的問題,我認為這就足夠了。
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Hi, Chris, good morning.
嗨,克里斯,早上好。
First of all, regarding your question of impact of potential generic competition to Copaxone on leverage, yes of course, we will see an increase in our financial leverage, but we do not see a risk to our bank loan, debt facility covenants, even with the generic competition to Copaxone.
首先,關於您關於 Copaxone 的潛在仿製藥競爭對槓桿的影響的問題,是的,當然,我們會看到我們的財務槓桿增加,但我們認為我們的銀行貸款、債務融資契約沒有風險,即使有Copaxone 的仿製藥競爭。
As we already said, we will do whatever it takes to maintain our rating, maintain the right leverage, and management has a number of tools to do that.
正如我們已經說過的,我們將盡一切努力維持我們的評級,保持適當的槓桿作用,管理層有很多工具可以做到這一點。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your next question comes from the line of Liav Abraham.
你的下一個問題來自 Liav Abraham。
Liav Abraham - Analyst
Liav Abraham - Analyst
Just in the Copaxone bear case scenario, could you remind us what the downside would be to cash flows in this scenario?
就 Copaxone 熊市而言,您能否提醒我們在這種情況下現金流的不利因素是什麼?
In the past, Eyal, you've mentioned, in a two generic Copaxone scenario, you've talked about $800 million downside to cash flows.
過去,Eyal,你提到過,在兩個通用的 Copaxone 場景中,你談到了 8 億美元的現金流下降。
Is that number being updated as well, following your updated bear case guidance range?
根據您更新的熊案例指導範圍,該數字是否也在更新?
And then secondly, on your generics performance for Q4, it seems as though, and correct me if I'm wrong, there was a lower monthly run rate for the Actavis component of the US business in Q4 2016, versus Q3.
其次,關於您在第四季度的仿製藥表現,如果我錯了請糾正我,2016 年第四季度美國業務的 Actavis 部分的月運行率低於第三季度。
Can you just, first can you just let me know if I'm understanding this correctly?
你能不能先讓我知道我是否理解正確?
And if so, can you just provide an explanation as to why, and how you see this business performing in 2017, based on your current insights into the US generics market, Thank you.
如果是這樣,您能否根據您目前對美國仿製藥市場的洞察,解釋原因以及您如何看待該業務在 2017 年的表現,謝謝。
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Liav, it's Eyal.
利亞夫,是埃亞爾。
So I'll take the cash flow question, and Dipankar will take the generic.
所以我會回答現金流量問題,Dipankar 會回答通用問題。
So the cash flow downside, in case of immediate generic competition is up to $800 million impact of cash flow for the year.
因此,在直接仿製藥競爭的情況下,現金流的下行將對全年現金流產生高達 8 億美元的影響。
And of course every day that goes by, this number goes down, but we will be we are waiting to see, I don't want to speculate on the entire amount, but this is calculated the maximum possible.
當然,每一天過去,這個數字都會下降,但我們會拭目以待,我不想推測全部金額,但這是計算出的最大可能。
Dipankar?
迪潘卡?
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Yes, so actually, the only difference that was there between quarter three and quarter four in the Actavis business, was just that the launches that carry through into Q3 had some effect, but basically, we did not see any fundamental difference in the way the business performed.
是的,所以實際上,阿特維斯業務第三季度和第四季度之間的唯一區別只是延續到第三季度的發布產生了一些影響,但基本上,我們沒有看到任何根本差異開展的業務。
As far as 2017 is concerned, we have our basis for our assumptions, in terms of launches that will come out of Actavis pipeline, the way the performance of the base business will be, so there's nothing that leads us to change our assumptions at this point in time.
就 2017 年而言,我們有我們的假設基礎,就 Actavis 管道中的發射而言,基礎業務的表現方式,所以沒有什麼可以讓我們改變我們的假設時間點。
We are quite confident about the way we are projecting the numbers.
我們對我們預測數字的方式非常有信心。
Liav Abraham - Analyst
Liav Abraham - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Marc Goodman.
你的下一個問題來自馬克古德曼。
Ami Fadia - Analyst
Ami Fadia - Analyst
This is Ami Fadia on behalf of Marc.
我是代表 Marc 的 Ami Fadia。
A quick question on just your outlook on the generics business, as you think about the next couple of years, based on your review so far.
一個簡單的問題,關於你對仿製藥業務的看法,根據你迄今為止的評論,你對未來幾年的看法。
Does Teva still think about its commitment to the generics space the same way as before?
Teva 是否仍像以前一樣考慮其對仿製藥領域的承諾?
And how do you see the margins evolving in the next couple of years?
您如何看待未來幾年的利潤率變化?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
So Dipankar will take it.
所以 Dipankar 會接受它。
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
So in terms of the performance of the generics business, as to how we look at it, the growth of generics business will be dependent on three factors, especially in relation to the US business.
因此,就彷製藥業務的表現而言,至於我們如何看待它,仿製藥業務的增長將取決於三個因素,尤其是與美國業務相關的因素。
The first is the flow of new product launches.
首先是新產品發布的流程。
The second is the impact of transition products, which are products that have recently lost exclusivity, and the third is price erosion of our base business.
第二個是過渡產品的影響,這些產品最近失去了獨家經營權,第三個是我們基礎業務的價格侵蝕。
As I have described in past discussions, in the US we expect net price erosion in our base business to be around 5%; however, there are additional price erosion factors at work, which will depend upon the amount of transition products in our portfolio for that specific year.
正如我在過去的討論中所描述的,在美國,我們預計我們基礎業務的淨價格下降約為 5%;但是,還有其他價格侵蝕因素在起作用,這將取決於特定年份我們投資組合中過渡產品的數量。
And finally, all this has to be offset by new product launches provided by our industry-leading pipeline.
最後,所有這一切都必須通過我們行業領先的管道提供的新產品發布來抵消。
So for our forecasting, I believe the growth in the US can be around low single-digits on a go-forward basis.
因此,對於我們的預測,我相信美國的增長在未來的基礎上可能會保持在較低的個位數左右。
There will be some years we can generate mid single-digit annual growth, but that will depend on the mix, as I just described.
有幾年我們可以實現中個位數的年增長率,但這將取決於組合,正如我剛才所描述的。
You also have to remember that you have 55% of our business, approximately generic revenues that comes from outside of the United States in Europe and other non-US markets.
您還必須記住,您擁有我們 55% 的業務,大約是來自美國以外的歐洲和其他非美國市場的通用收入。
In these markets, we expect mid single-digit growth, and this is consistent with the past behavior of the market.
在這些市場中,我們預計將實現中個位數增長,這與市場過去的表現一致。
Ami Fadia - Analyst
Ami Fadia - Analyst
Could you talk about the margins itself please?
你能談談利潤本身嗎?
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Yes, so what we expect, is as far as margins are concerned, our pipeline that we see coming through in the US has a very healthy mix of complex generics products.
是的,所以我們期望的是,就利潤率而言,我們在美國看到的管道有非常健康的複雜仿製藥產品組合。
We expect these products to be more durable in margins.
我們預計這些產品的利潤率會更持久。
So overall, we see relatively stable performance in margins, as we go forward.
因此,總體而言,隨著我們的前進,我們看到利潤率表現相對穩定。
Ami Fadia - Analyst
Ami Fadia - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ken Cacciatore.
您的下一個問題來自 Ken Cacciatore。
Ken Cacciatore - Analyst
Ken Cacciatore - Analyst
Just wondering, you mentioned that there could be additional cost savings, if you had the generic Copaxone.
只是想知道,你提到如果你有通用的 Copaxone,可能會節省額外的成本。
I guess the corollary to that, if maybe you could discuss a little bit more specifically, a corollary to that would be how do you justify this type of R&D spending, given what we've seen yielding from this portfolio, both generic and brand?
我想這的必然結果,如果你可以更具體地討論一下,那麼一個必然結果就是你如何證明這種類型的研發支出是合理的,考慮到我們從這個產品組合中看到的收益,包括仿製藥和品牌?
Just the run rate of around $2 billion.
只有大約 20 億美元的運行率。
I know it's coming down next year, but maybe just discuss how you possibly justify that much spending there?
我知道它明年會下降,但也許只是討論你如何證明在那里花費那麼多?
And then also just on Copaxone, is there any reason why we haven't seen an approval yet?
然後還有關於 Copaxone,我們還沒有看到批准的原因是什麼?
Is there anything holding -- that would be holding in terms of exclusivity or 30 month stay?
是否有任何保留 - 就排他性或 30 個月逗留而言會保留?
Just wondering why we haven't yet seen an approval issued.
只是想知道為什麼我們還沒有看到批准。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Okay, so on your first question, I'm sorry if I'm saying it one time after the other, but I've been the CEO for one week.
好的,關於你的第一個問題,如果我一次又一次地說,我很抱歉,但我已經擔任首席執行官一周了。
I think it's not even seven days, now, so I cannot get into specifics.
我想現在還不到 7 天,所以我不能透露具體細節。
And I say again, including your specific question about R&D, I'm looking on every part of the business, on every part of the business, and I'm sure that when I have something to say about it, I will come back to you.
我再說一遍,包括你關於研發的具體問題,我正在研究業務的每個部分,業務的每個部分,我相信當我有話要說的時候,我會回來你。
And the second question about Copaxone, Eyal?
關於 Copaxone 的第二個問題,Eyal?
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
I can take that.
我可以接受。
It would all be speculation, right?
一切都是猜測,對吧?
We really don't know, so really, what you see it's a crystal ball.
我們真的不知道,所以真的,你看到的是一個水晶球。
You know as much as we do in this respect.
在這方面你和我們一樣了解。
Don't want to speculate.
不想猜測。
Michael Hayden - Head of R&D
Michael Hayden - Head of R&D
Yes, I would like to say something, Ken, thank you so much for the question.
是的,我想說點什麼,Ken,非常感謝你提出這個問題。
It gives me an opportunity just to remind our investors that Teva's specialty R&D budget in 2017 is $950 million.
這讓我有機會提醒我們的投資者,Teva 2017 年的專業研發預算為 9.5 億美元。
It's amongst the lowest in the industry.
這是行業中最低的。
And then when you look at what's happening, in fact this is a landmark year for specialty R&D, of course I've been in this job just over four years, and so when you look at this and you see what's happening this year, we have already had three approvals, we are looking at major clinical results this year.
然後當你看看正在發生的事情時,事實上這是專業研發具有里程碑意義的一年,當然我從事這項工作才四年多,所以當你看到這一點並看到今年發生的事情時,我們已經獲得三個批准,我們正在研究今年的主要臨床結果。
We also are looking forward to, although we of course await the FDA decision about SD-809, both for Huntington's and tardive dyskinesia.
我們也很期待,儘管我們當然在等待 FDA 關於 SD-809 的決定,包括亨廷頓舞蹈症和遲發性運動障礙。
And this year, we'll have very important five clinical results.
今年,我們將獲得非常重要的五個臨床結果。
Our anti-CGRP results both in episodic migraine and chronic migraine, our NAV 1.7 antagonist, and Laquinimod both for relapsing and progressive MS. And so the spend is actually on the low side compared to our peers, and I think you'll see today, you'll see further about the productivity this year, but it's an important year for specialty R&D.
我們的抗 CGRP 導致發作性偏頭痛和慢性偏頭痛,我們的 NAV 1.7 拮抗劑和 Laquinimod 均用於復發和進行性 MS。因此,與我們的同行相比,支出實際上偏低,我想你今天會看到,你會進一步了解今年的生產力,但這是專業研發的重要一年。
Ken Cacciatore - Analyst
Ken Cacciatore - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your next question comes from the line of Umer Raffat.
你的下一個問題來自 Umer Rafat。
Umer Raffat - Analyst
Umer Raffat - Analyst
I have a couple, if I may.
如果可以的話,我有一對。
Perhaps first, should we be expecting any additional announcements of departures from management and/or senior management team, first?
也許首先,我們是否應該首先期待管理層和/或高級管理團隊離職的任何其他公告?
And secondly I wanted to come back to something Eyal said.
其次,我想回到 Eyal 所說的話。
Eyal, you mentioned you do not see a risk to bank loan covenants, even with the generic competition to Copaxone, and that you'll do whatever it takes to maintain the ratings and leverage.
Eyal,你提到你沒有看到銀行貸款契約的風險,即使是與 Copaxone 的一般競爭,你將盡一切努力維持評級和槓桿。
So my question is as an organization, can you cut $1 billion plus in OpEx, if that's what was needed to maintain rating and leverage, and do you think you'll be revisiting dividends as part of the broader reorg, in case there were to be cuts needed?
所以我的問題是,作為一個組織,你能否削減 10 億美元以上的運營支出,如果這是維持評級和槓桿率所需要的,你是否認為你會在更廣泛的重組中重新審視股息,以防萬一需要削減嗎?
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
So we are focused on delivering on our commitments, and I'm very pleased with how the team has come together.
因此,我們專注於兌現我們的承諾,我對團隊的凝聚力感到非常滿意。
And on the second question on Copaxone, Eyal?
關於 Copaxone 的第二個問題,Eyal?
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Eyal Desheh - CFO
So first, it's very hard to speculate on the real impact.
所以首先,很難推測真正的影響。
We gave you the boundaries, and we stand behind them, where we mentioned before, and Yitzhak referred to it in so many words, we aren't going to leave any unturned stone, in terms of our ability to become more efficient, to create the right tools in order to mitigate any changes, any possible changes in leverage in order to maintain rating.
我們給了你界限,我們站在界限後面,我們之前提到過,Yitzhak 用很多話提到它,就我們提高效率、創造的能力而言,我們不會留下任何未翻過的石頭正確的工具以減輕任何變化,任何可能的槓桿變化以維持評級。
And of course maintain debts covenant and we believe that we're there.
當然,保持債務契約,我們相信我們在那裡。
And regarding dividend, our Board is approving dividends every quarter, and that's the policy.
關於股息,我們的董事會每個季度都會批准股息,這就是政策。
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Yes, and if I can just say a word about dividends is, there are no plans to do any changes with respect to dividends, and I'll just leave it at that I think.
是的,如果我只能說關於股息的話,沒有計劃對股息進行任何改變,我想就這樣吧。
Umer Raffat - Analyst
Umer Raffat - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your next question comes from the line of Jami Rubin.
你的下一個問題來自 Jami Rubin。
Jami Rubin - Analyst
Jami Rubin - Analyst
Sol, just was wondering if you could take a step back.
索爾,只是想知道你是否可以退後一步。
You've been on the Board now for a couple years, you're now Chairman, ran a successful Company, and I'm just be curious to know what your vision is for Teva over the next few years?
你現在已經在董事會工作了幾年,你現在是董事長,經營著一家成功的公司,我很想知道你對 Teva 在未來幾年的願景是什麼?
I think it's pretty abundantly clear to most of us that the Company has not been successful, and when you go back three, five years under the previous CEO, Jeremy Levin, who was more focused on pharma, that didn't work.
我認為我們大多數人都非常清楚公司沒有成功,當你回到前任首席執行官傑里米萊文的三五年時,他更專注於製藥,那是行不通的。
Erez was more focused on generics, that didn't work.
Erez 更專注於仿製藥,那是行不通的。
What do you see as the right structure for this Company?
您認為這家公司的正確結構是什麼?
Can the two businesses, generics and specialty brands, co-exist together and unlock value?
仿製藥和專業品牌這兩種業務能否共存並釋放價值?
Or is this an opportunity to really rethink that?
或者這是一個真正重新思考的機會?
I know a couple of other people have been trying to ask the question.
我知道其他幾個人一直在嘗試提出這個問題。
But doesn't that also depend on what kind of CEO you choose?
但這不也取決於你選擇什麼樣的CEO嗎?
And then I think the question was asked earlier, I don't know that I heard the answer, but would you consider changing some of Teva's corporate governance rules such as requiring that a new CEO live in Israel, where most of the expense base is?
然後我想這個問題之前有人問過,我不知道我聽到了答案,但你會考慮改變 Teva 的一些公司治理規則,比如要求新 CEO 住在以色列,那裡的大部分費用基礎是?
I'm just wondering how, now we've had a long year period of underperformance.
我只是想知道,現在我們已經經歷了很長一段時間表現不佳。
Isn't this an opportunity to really rethink the future of the Company, the future strategic direction of the Company?
這難道不是一個真正重新思考公司未來、公司未來戰略方向的機會嗎?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Yes, so that is a long and very, that's a long and very good -- that's a long-answered question.
是的,這是一個很長很長的問題,而且非常好——這是一個回答已久的問題。
It's a question that has a long answer, but is a very good question obviously.
這是一個答案很長的問題,但顯然是一個非常好的問題。
And just let me take the last one is, I will repeat what I said before in terms of the CEO.
最後一個是,我將重複我之前就 CEO 所說的話。
When we find the right CEO, which again, as I say Jami, is my highest priority, is then we will do what it takes to bring that CEO to Teva.
當我們找到合適的 CEO 時,就像我說的 Jami 一樣,這是我的首要任務,然後我們將盡一切努力將這位 CEO 帶到 Teva。
And so I'll just leave it at that for now, but we will bring that CEO to Teva.
所以我現在就把它留在那兒,但我們會把那位首席執行官帶到 Teva。
And in terms of the strategic vision, I have my own obviously prejudices and so on.
而在戰略眼光上,我有自己明顯的偏見等等。
What I can tell you is when I came to Teva, and especially since I've been Chair, where I've seen things even more closer, I am really impressed with a lot of the assets that this Company has.
我可以告訴你的是,當我來到 Teva 時,特別是自從我擔任主席以來,我更近距離地看到了事情,這家公司擁有的許多資產給我留下了深刻的印象。
Without going into detail, the generic assets are spectacular in terms of the logistics, the reach, the touching the lives of so many patients, et cetera.
無需詳細說明,通用資產在物流、影響範圍、觸及如此多患者的生活等方面都非常出色。
And on specialty, there are some exciting things going on there as well.
在專業方面,也有一些令人興奮的事情發生。
And as you know, the line between specialty and generics isn't what it once was.
如您所知,專業藥和仿製藥之間的界限已不再像以前那樣。
Biosimilars are in between, and 505(b)(2)s are in between, so it's a bit of a continuum.
生物仿製藥介於兩者之間,505(b)(2)s 介於兩者之間,所以它有點連續。
So you can make arguments in either case.
所以你可以在任何一種情況下進行爭論。
My personal vision is that we have a Company that serves with existing drugs, and we have a Company that develops new ones.
我個人的願景是我們擁有一家服務於現有藥物的公司,我們擁有一家開發新藥物的公司。
But again, this is part of a more in-depth strategic view in terms of what will be best to unlock value for shareholders, and that's something that will be done by the incoming CEO to a significant extent.
但同樣,就什麼最能為股東釋放價值而言,這是更深入的戰略觀點的一部分,而這將在很大程度上由即將上任的首席執行官完成。
Did I answer the question, Jami?
我回答問題了嗎,傑米?
Jami Rubin - Analyst
Jami Rubin - Analyst
Yes, well this is a very long question, as you said, but yes.
是的,正如您所說,這是一個很長的問題,但是是的。
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
We can take it offline.
我們可以讓它離線。
Jami Rubin - Analyst
Jami Rubin - Analyst
We'll take this offline.
我們將把它脫機。
But Eyal, can I ask a follow-up on the question regarding the commitment to the dividend?
但是 Eyal,我可以就有關股息承諾的問題提出後續問題嗎?
You don't have a ton of room under your covenants, and both Moody's and S&P both put Teva's credit rating on negative outlook.
你的契約沒有太多空間,穆迪和標準普爾都將 Teva 的信用評級展望為負面。
In this environment, where you don't have a ton of levers to pull, you have said you are not going to do M&A, you are not going to do buybacks.
在這種環境下,你沒有太多的槓桿可以拉動,你已經說過你不會進行併購,你不會進行回購。
Not sure why I understand why you're still committed to the $1.6 billion dividend.
不知道為什麼我理解為什麼你仍然致力於 16 億美元的股息。
Would you prefer to face a ratings downgrade than cutting your dividend, is that how you look at it?
你寧願面對評級下調也不願削減股息,你是這麼看的嗎?
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Well first of all, no.
首先,不。
Of course there is a balance, and as we said throughout this call so far, we'll need more clarity.
當然存在平衡,正如我們在整個電話會議中所說的那樣,我們需要更加明確。
We don't know if there will be generic competition to Copaxone, when and what would be the order of magnitude.
我們不知道是否會有針對 Copaxone 的仿製藥競爭,何時以及數量級是多少。
So we do have the tools ready and will implement them as necessary.
所以我們確實準備好了工具,並將在必要時實施它們。
But as you heard before there are no changes currently.
但正如您之前所聽到的,目前沒有任何變化。
Sol, do you want to add anything to the dividend question?
索爾,你想對股息問題添加任何內容嗎?
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
Sol Barer - Chairman of the Board
In terms of the dividend, just to reiterate the fact there are no plans to change anything.
就股息而言,只是重申一個事實,沒有任何改變的計劃。
Jami Rubin - Analyst
Jami Rubin - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your next question comes from the line of David Maris.
你的下一個問題來自 David Maris。
David Maris - Analyst
David Maris - Analyst
Two questions.
兩個問題。
First Eyal, history lesson.
First Eyal,歷史課。
A couple years ago, or a few years ago, Teva went through the same process of reviewing the -- deciding whether to split up the Company, and you explained at the time that it was very clear not to do that because of dis-synergies.
幾年前,或者幾年前,Teva 經歷了同樣的審查過程——決定是否拆分公司,你當時解釋說很明顯不這樣做是因為協同效應不佳.
So just respecting that times change and administrations change and the rest, but can you go through, at the time what were those dis-synergies, how clear was that decision, or was it border line?
所以只是尊重時代的變化和政府的變化等等,但是你能說說當時那些不協調的因素是什麼,這個決定有多明確,或者它是邊界線嗎?
And then lastly, Eyal, I think you also, last week we did a call with your folks about debt and there may be some confusion about this.
最後,Eyal,我想你也是,上週我們與你的家人就債務問題進行了一次電話會議,對此可能會有一些困惑。
Our understanding is that you have to lose two notches in order to lose investment grade, and the first notch down is only about a 12.5 basis point impact to about $8 billion of debt, so a very small impact.
我們的理解是,您必須降低兩個等級才能失去投資等級,而第一個等級下降僅對約 80 億美元的債務產生約 12.5 個基點的影響,因此影響非常小。
Is that correct, and can you confirm that?
這是正確的嗎,你能證實嗎?
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Eyal Desheh - CFO
So with the last one, to go out of investment grade requires two notches, and not one notch from where we are today.
因此,對於最後一個,要脫離投資級別需要兩個等級,而不是我們今天的等級。
And I just want to refer you to the press releases of the rating agencies, how to view it, how to view Teva.
我只想向您介紹評級機構的新聞稿,如何看待它,如何看待 Teva。
And I think that it's not just the simple math, but our commitment to maintain ratings, to delever our balance sheet, and to avoid any other uses of cash and capital allocation, as long as our debt to EBITDA ratio is about the desired targeted 3.5 times.
我認為這不僅僅是簡單的數學運算,而是我們對維持評級、去槓桿化我們的資產負債表並避免現金和資本配置的任何其他用途的承諾,只要我們的債務與 EBITDA 的比率大約是理想的目標 3.5次。
Regarding your first question on splitting up, yes, we have reviewed this a number of times before, and when it will come to a strategic evaluation, of course all of the possibilities to create maximum shareholders for our investors will be on the table.
關於你第一個關於分拆的問題,是的,我們之前已經審查過很多次了,什麼時候進行戰略評估,當然所有為我們的投資者創造最大股東的可能性都會擺在桌面上。
The last time we did review that, you are correct.
上次我們確實對此進行了審查,您是對的。
Your memory is correct.
你的記憶是正確的。
Our conclusion was that dis-synergies and the Company, and it's more than expenses and synergies.
我們的結論是協同效應和公司之間的不協調,而且不僅僅是費用和協同效應。
I think Sol talked about it in a previous answer.
我認為 Sol 在之前的回答中談到了這一點。
It's about how the new pharma companies are going to look like.
它是關於新的製藥公司將是什麼樣子的。
David Maris - Analyst
David Maris - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Louise Chen.
你的下一個問題來自 Louise Chen。
Louise Chen - Analyst
Louise Chen - Analyst
I have two here.
我這裡有兩個。
First one is on some of your key generic opportunities.
第一個是關於您的一些關鍵通用機會。
I was wondering if you could give us an update there.
我想知道你是否可以在那裡給我們更新。
Those would be like Restasis Acthar, Premarin, Advair, and EpiPen.
那些就像 Restasis Acthar、Premarin、Advair 和 EpiPen。
And second question, is are you still interested getting bigger in OTC drugs?
第二個問題,你是否仍然有興趣在 OTC 藥物上做大?
You'd mentioned that before at your Investor Day.
你之前在投資者日提到過這一點。
And then just curious how confident you are, you're going to get exclusivity for Nexium this year?
然後很好奇你有多自信,今年你將獲得 Nexium 的獨家經營權?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Yitzhak Peterburg - Interim President and CEO
Dipankar?
迪潘卡?
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
So let me take them one by one.
因此,讓我一一介紹。
Thank you, Louise.
謝謝你,路易絲。
So regarding generics new product opportunities, as I described last month, we are targeting more than 80 different product opportunities that I expect to yield approximately 40 to 50 launches in 2017.
因此,關於仿製藥新產品機會,正如我上個月所描述的,我們的目標是 80 多種不同的產品機會,我預計這些機會將在 2017 年推出大約 40 到 50 次。
For the products, we have a high confidence in terms of executing.
對於產品,我們在執行方面有很高的信心。
We have clearly outlined them.
我們已經清楚地概述了它們。
Now specifically for the products that you mentioned we have developments in our pipeline, but I think the time to update as to where those developments are, at what level of maturity they are progressing, I can simply say as for plan.
現在專門針對您提到的產品,我們正在開發中,但我認為是時候更新這些開發的位置,它們進展到什麼程度的成熟度,我可以簡單地說一下計劃。
All the products that you mentioned are in our development, and they are progressing as they should be, and as for the milestones that we have set for them.
你提到的所有產品都在我們的開發中,它們都在按照它們應該的方式進行,至於我們為它們設定的里程碑。
Now regarding the point that you mentioned, around what we have for launches, we have a process where we look at the three conditions that have to be met for the launch of a product, the legal positions, the regulatory approval of the product, and operational readiness.
現在關於你提到的這一點,圍繞我們要發布的內容,我們有一個流程,我們會查看產品發布必須滿足的三個條件、法律地位、產品的監管批准,以及運營準備。
So I feel that we have addressed those.
所以我覺得我們已經解決了這些問題。
As regarding specific updates as and when we have an update to give on any of the specific products you mentioned whether it is Restasis, or whether it is Premarin, or whether it is EpiPen, we will do it at that time.
至於具體的更新,當我們對您提到的任何特定產品進行更新時,無論是 Restasis、Premarin 還是 EpiPen,我們都會在那個時候進行。
But I think it is relatively premature at this point in time.
但我認為現在還為時過早。
Kevin Mannix - SVP & Head of IR
Kevin Mannix - SVP & Head of IR
Lawrence, we'll take one final question.
勞倫斯,我們將提出最後一個問題。
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
There was one point around the OTC business.
關於場外交易業務有一點。
As you're aware, as far as our OTC business is concerned, it is a joint venture that we have with Procter & Gamble.
如您所知,就我們的場外交易業務而言,這是我們與寶潔公司的合資企業。
In addition to that, we have also received as a part of our Actavis acquisition, a very nice standalone OTC business.
除此之外,作為收購 Actavis 的一部分,我們還獲得了一項非常不錯的獨立場外交易業務。
The OTC business in the past, the one that we have with the joint venture, has at least in the last three years, always exceeded the growth rates of the market by a factor of two to three, and we see a very healthy growth continuing in that business.
過去的 OTC 業務,我們與合資企業的業務,至少在過去三年中,總是超過市場增長率兩到三倍,我們看到非常健康的增長仍在繼續在那個行業。
Louise Chen - Analyst
Louise Chen - Analyst
I'm sorry, I meant to say the store brand drugs, not the branded products, in terms of if you plan on getting larger, or something that you want to expand on.
對不起,我的意思是說商店品牌藥物,而不是品牌產品,如果你打算變得更大,或者你想要擴展的東西。
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
The store brand business is only in the US, and at this point in time, there is no plans to expand that business.
商店品牌業務僅在美國,目前沒有擴展該業務的計劃。
Louise Chen - Analyst
Louise Chen - Analyst
Okay, thanks.
好的謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Your final question today comes from the line of Ronny Gal.
您今天的最後一個問題來自 Ronny Gal。
Ronny Gal - Analyst
Ronny Gal - Analyst
First I want to wish the new Board and new CEO good luck ahead.
首先,我要祝愿新董事會和新任首席執行官前程似錦。
Obviously, you'll have a lot of work in front of you, and I wish you great success.
顯然,您面前有很多工作要做,祝您成功。
Second, I've got two questions.
其次,我有兩個問題。
First, Eyal, I'm struggling a little bit with the math of losing $800 million in case of the generic entry.
首先,Eyal,我對仿製藥損失 8 億美元的數學計算有些吃力。
You have done a ton of generic businesses.
您已經完成了大量通用業務。
I just look at $3.2 billion business with 80% operating margin.
我只看 32 億美元的業務,營業利潤率為 80%。
I tell myself you lose 20% of volume, 25% on price, or something like that, and the impact looked to be twice as much.
我告訴自己,你損失了 20% 的銷量,25% 的價格,或類似的東西,而且影響看起來是原來的兩倍。
So if you can help me a little bit understanding there the assumptions here around the cash flow, just because, even if it's not a typical generic launch, your estimate seems to be low for the impact here.
因此,如果你能幫助我稍微了解一下這里關於現金流的假設,只是因為,即使這不是典型的通用發布,你的估計似乎對這裡的影響很低。
And second for Dipankar, the three big products that we're facing near-term generic erosion you referred to those as transition products, Concerta, Pulmicort, and Adderall XR, if we think about the impact moving on from 2016 to 2017, are those products now stabilized?
其次,對於 Dipankar,如果我們考慮從 2016 年到 2017 年的影響,我們面臨近期仿製藥侵蝕的三大產品,您稱之為過渡產品,Concerta、Pulmicort 和 Adderall XR,是那些現在產品穩定了嗎?
Should we assume they will another step down on the revenue profitability of those products?
我們是否應該假設他們將進一步降低這些產品的盈利能力?
Or are we more or less in a position where the damage from new entrants has been done, and we are like on a new stable basis?
或者我們或多或少處於新進入者的損害已經造成的位置,我們就像在一個新的穩定基礎上?
Eyal Desheh - CFO
Eyal Desheh - CFO
So I'll start on the financial implication and Rob can add some of the assumptions behind what you see in case of a generic launch.
因此,我將從財務影響開始,Rob 可以在您看到的通用發布情況下添加一些假設。
You're correct, this is not a regular generic launch.
你是對的,這不是常規的通用發布。
And when we ran all of the possibilities and all the scenarios, and of course nobody has a crystal ball on that, we are also looking back at what happened with the 20-milligram launch.
當我們運行所有的可能性和所有場景時,當然沒有人對此有水晶球,我們也在回顧 20 毫克發射時發生的事情。
It's a different situation of course, but something to learn from, both on price and volume, that's the worst case scenario we currently see, and we believe it makes sense.
當然,這是一種不同的情況,但在價格和數量上都可以從中吸取教訓,這是我們目前看到的最糟糕的情況,我們相信這是有道理的。
Rob, do you want to add?
羅布,你想補充嗎?
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
Rob Koremans - President & CEO Global Specialty Medicines
Ronny, we have a very solid contracting strategy in place already, and based on what we've seen with the 20-milligram, we've modeled also on the 40.
羅尼,我們已經制定了一個非常可靠的收縮策略,並且根據我們在 20 毫克中看到的情況,我們也對 40 毫克進行了建模。
It remains very dynamic, and there's a lot of crystal ball in it, but what we do know is the loyalty to Copaxone of patients and doctors alike.
它仍然非常有活力,裡面有很多水晶球,但我們所知道的是患者和醫生對 Copaxone 的忠誠度。
What we do know is that payers are going to be reluctant to force anyone to a generic version of the 40, if they know that the patients are going to switch, in 70% of cases to more expensive oral therapies.
我們所知道的是,如果付款人知道患者將轉而使用 40 的仿製藥,在 70% 的病例中,他們將不願意強迫任何人使用 40 的仿製藥。
And then also, the uncertainty around the appeal, payers are not going to be forcing anyone to switch if there's a likelihood of having to switch back, after winning the appeal.
此外,上訴的不確定性,如果在贏得上訴後有可能不得不轉回,付款人不會強迫任何人轉換。
So all of these things we factored in, and it's also why we really opted to continue to be present with selective marketing and medical spend, and contracting in place.
所以我們考慮了所有這些因素,這也是為什麼我們真的選擇繼續存在選擇性營銷和醫療支出,並簽訂合同。
So this is really not a standard generic in any way, and you were correct in stating it.
所以這在任何方面都不是標準的泛型,你說得對。
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Yes, Ronny, so thanks for the question.
是的,羅尼,謝謝你的提問。
The products that you mentioned, the answer to that is as far as Pulmicort is concerned yes, it has stabilized.
你提到的產品,就 Pulmicort 而言,答案是肯定的,它已經穩定了。
As far as Concerta is concerned, our assumption regarding the competition and pricing is pretty much holding up, and that is in our forecast for this number.
就 Concerta 而言,我們關於競爭和定價的假設幾乎是成立的,這也在我們對這個數字的預測中。
Ronny Gal - Analyst
Ronny Gal - Analyst
And Adderall XR?
還有 Adderall XR?
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Dipankar Bhattacharjee - President & CEO Global Generic Medicines
Yes, so as far as our assumptions are concerned there, these prices are stabilized.
是的,就我們的假設而言,這些價格是穩定的。
Ronny Gal - Analyst
Ronny Gal - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Kevin Mannix - SVP & Head of IR
Kevin Mannix - SVP & Head of IR
Okay, thank you, everybody for joining us for the call today.
好的,謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。
We appreciate your questions.
感謝您提出問題。
We'll be available throughout today and the rest of the week to take additional questions.
今天和本週剩餘時間,我們都可以回答其他問題。
Have a great week, and thank you.
祝你度過愉快的一周,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
That does conclude our conference for today.
我們今天的會議到此結束。
For those of you wishing to review this conference, the replay facility can be accessed by dialing within the UK on 0845 2455205 or from outside the UK on +44 1452 550000, and quoting the reservation number 62969090.
對於那些希望回顧這次會議的人,可以通過在英國境內撥打 0845 2455205 或在英國境外撥打 +44 1452 550000 並提供預訂號碼 62969090 來訪問重播設施。
Thank you for your participation.
感謝您的參與。
You may all disconnect.
你們都可以斷開連接。