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Operator
Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Tempus Q3 2026 financial results call. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the conference over to Kendra Webster, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
各位好。感謝各位加入,歡迎參加 Tempus 2026 年第三季財務業績電話會議。(接線員指示) 現在我將把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Kendra Webster。請開始。
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Matt. Good morning, and welcome to Tempus' third-quarter 2026 conference call. This morning, Tempus released results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The press release, overview of the quarter, and our latest presentation are available on our IR website at investor.tempus.com.
謝謝你,Matt。各位早安,歡迎參加 Tempus 2026 年第三季電話會議。今天早上,Tempus 公布了截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日止季度的業績。新聞稿、本季概覽以及我們最新的簡報可於我們的投資人關係網站 investor.tempus.com 取得。
Joining me today are Eric Lefkofsky, Founder and CEO of Tempus -- and Jim Rogers, CFO. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during this call, management will be making forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties and that could cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of these risks, please refer to our 10-K and other subsequent filings with the SEC. During the call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.
今天與我一同出席的有 Tempus 創辦人暨執行長 Eric Lefkofsky,以及財務長 Jim Rogers。在開始之前,我想提醒各位,本次電話會議中管理層將作出前瞻性陳述,該等陳述受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。關於這些風險的討論,請參閱我們的 10-K 以及其後向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的其他文件。本次會議中,我們也將討論非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,該等指標並非依一般公認會計原則編製。
Definitions of these non-GAAP financial measures, along with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our earnings release, which is available on our IR page. I will now turn the call over to Eric.
這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的定義,以及與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表,均載於我們的財報新聞稿中,可於我們的投資人關係頁面取得。現在我把電話交給 Eric。
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Q3 was an incredibly strong quarter for Tempus with broad-based growth across both our Diagnostics and data and applications businesses. Momentum from the first half of 2026 carried into the third quarter. With total revenue of $411.5 million, increasing 23% year over year, led by accelerating unit growth of 32% in our oncology business and increasing momentum of 33% revenue growth in data and apps. Our Diagnostics business delivered $303.5 million of revenue, an increase of 20% year over year, driven by oncology revenues, which grew 28% with volume growth of 32%, as we continue to see some of the strongest unit volume growth we have seen in years.
第三季對 Tempus 而言是極為強勁的一季,我們的診斷業務以及資料與應用業務均呈現廣泛成長。2026 年上半年的動能延續至第三季。總營收為 4.115 億美元,年增 23%,主要由腫瘤業務加速的單位量成長 32% 所帶動,同時資料與應用業務營收成長動能提升至 33%。我們的診斷業務營收為 3.035 億美元,年增 20%,主要由腫瘤營收帶動;腫瘤營收年增 28%,量(volume)成長 32%,我們持續看到多年來最強勁的單位量成長之一。
Oncology revenues were $172.6 million, and hereditary cancer testing revenues were $111.3 million. Data and apps revenues were $108.1 million, increasing 33% year over year as that business continues to outperform, led by Insights, our data licensing segment, which grew 29% and these results reinforce the durability of our model as our best-in-class diagnostic platform, enhances our data and AI offerings, distinguishes our business from our many competitors, and helps drive the performance we have delivered consistently quarter after quarter. There were also several notable highlights since our last quarterly call. We entered into a strategic collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb, or BMS, whereby we agreed to license BMS oncology data and models for up to $137.5 million over a five-year term.
腫瘤營收為 1.726 億美元,遺傳性癌症檢測營收為 1.113 億美元。資料與應用營收為 1.081 億美元,年增 33%,該業務持續優於預期;其中由 Insights(我們的資料授權部門)領軍,成長 29%。這些結果再次印證我們商業模式的韌性:我們同級最佳的診斷平台強化了我們的資料與 AI 產品,讓我們在眾多競爭者中脫穎而出,並推動我們一季又一季持續交出的表現。自上次季度電話會議以來,也有幾項值得注意的亮點。我們與百時美施貴寶(Bristol Myers Squibb,BMS)達成策略合作,我們同意在五年期間內,最多以 1.375 億美元授權使用 BMS 的腫瘤資料與模型。
Additionally, BMS, Pathos, and Tempus have entered into a collaboration to build data sets and models for Alzheimer's disease. Through this collaboration, Pathos is paying Tempus $55 million over a five-year term. As a result, over the next approximately five years, we expect to generate $192.5 million of additional data and applications revenue from these agreements alone. This is one of our largest strategic collaborations to date, and it's nice to see BMS join the likes of AstraZeneca, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline and BioNTech.
此外,BMS、Pathos 與 Tempus 也已建立合作,共同打造阿茲海默症的資料集與模型。透過此合作,Pathos 將在五年期間內支付 Tempus 5,500 萬美元。因此,在未來約五年內,僅憑這些協議,我們預期可額外產生 1.925 億美元的資料與應用營收。這是我們迄今規模最大的策略合作之一,也很高興看到 BMS 加入 AstraZeneca、Merck、GlaxoSmithKline 與 BioNTech 等公司的行列。
As I've said before, if we signed just one of these big collaborations, we would be content. We've signed three this year alone. We announced a multiyear strategic collaboration with Moderna and Merck to support the potential commercialization of their novel first-in-class individualized neoantigen therapy, or INT, being evaluated in combination with KEYTRUDA in patients with completely resected Stage IIB-IV melanoma and other cancer types. Given the exceptional response of the clinical trial data so far and the potential for this drug to be transformational, we are excited by the future of this program and thrilled to be partnering with Moderna and Merck.
如我先前所說,即使只簽下一個這類大型合作,我們也會感到滿意。而我們今年至今就已簽下三個。我們宣布與 Moderna 與 Merck 展開多年期策略合作,以支援其潛在商業化的創新同級首創(first-in-class)個人化新抗原療法(individualized neoantigen therapy,INT)。該療法正與 KEYTRUDA 聯合用於完全切除之 IIB-IV 期黑色素瘤患者及其他癌種的評估。鑑於目前臨床試驗數據所呈現的卓越反應,以及此藥物可能帶來的變革性影響,我們對該計畫的未來感到振奮,也非常高興能與 Moderna 與 Merck 攜手合作。
We cleared regulatory review of our pending acquisition of Personalis and a Personalis shareholder meeting to approve the transaction is scheduled for November 30. We are more convinced than ever of the synergies between our combined companies. We have been the exclusive distributor of Personalis' tumor-informed MRD assay next since 2023, which we believe is a best-in-class assay given its ultrasensitivity.
我們已完成對擬議收購 Personalis 的監管審查,且 Personalis 將於 11 月 30 日召開股東會以核准該交易。我們比以往任何時候都更確信兩家公司結合後的綜效。自 2023 年起,我們一直是 Personalis 以腫瘤資訊為基礎(tumor-informed)的 MRD 檢測 Next 的獨家經銷商;我們認為該檢測因其超高靈敏度而屬同級最佳。
MRD represents an estimated $20-plus billion market and is one of the fastest-growing segments in oncology diagnostics. It is transformative for cancer care, allowing clinicians to detect disease recurrence earlier than traditional imaging enabling more informed treatment decisions when cancer recurs, bringing Personalis testing portfolio under one roof will accelerate commercial adoption, round out our overall portfolio and strengthen the multimodal data flywheel that continues to differentiate our business.
MRD 代表一個估計超過 200 億美元的市場,且是腫瘤診斷中成長最快的領域之一。它對癌症照護具有變革性意義,使臨床醫師能比傳統影像更早偵測到疾病復發,從而在癌症復發時做出更明智的治療決策。將 Personalis 的檢測產品組合納入同一體系,將加速商業採用、完善我們的整體產品組合,並強化持續讓我們業務脫穎而出的多模態資料飛輪。
We generated $25.6 million in adjusted EBITDA and ended the quarter with $854.4 million in cash and marketable securities. We had long suspected that with gross profit dollar growth outpacing our investments, we would eventually turn the corner and be able to generate meaningful EBITDA. This quarter, we made the turn. Despite our increasing investments in diagnostics, we have always been a tech company.
我們產生了 2,560 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA,並在季末持有 8.544 億美元的現金及有價證券。我們長期以來一直認為,隨著毛利美元的成長速度超過我們的投資增速,我們終將跨過轉折點並能產生具意義的 EBITDA。本季,我們做到了。儘管我們持續加大對診斷的投資,我們一直都是一家科技公司。
Our entire business model was built around the idea of collecting vast amounts of real-time, multimodal de-identified data to both improve clinical decisions and enhance research. A decade later, those efforts have allowed us to amass more than 600 petabytes of rich data, adding more than 50 petabytes last quarter alone -- along with the technology infrastructure that is connected to approximately 8,000 providers, enabling us to use that data to train models and generate insights.
我們整體商業模式建立在蒐集大量即時、多模態且去識別化的資料之上,以同時改善臨床決策並強化研究。十年後,這些努力使我們累積了超過 600 PB 的豐富資料,僅上一季就新增超過 50 PB——並建立了與約 8,000 家醫療服務提供者相連的技術基礎設施,使我們能運用這些資料訓練模型並產生洞見。
The scale of our business and the breadth of our portfolio has allowed us to build a significant data moat by compounding a decade of investment in our AI capabilities, we deliver solutions that grow more powerful with every patient touch point, cementing our position as an indispensable engine for healthcare innovation.
我們業務的規模與產品組合的廣度,使我們得以透過十年來對 AI 能力的持續投入累積,建立顯著的資料護城河;我們提供的解決方案會隨著每一次病患接觸點而變得更強大,鞏固我們作為醫療照護創新不可或缺引擎的地位。
As the world gets hungrier for the benefits AI can deliver, namely, allowing people to live longer and healthier lives, Tempus is uniquely positioned as we have strategically amassed the data needed to power these models and the distribution platform to deliver them to patients. As a result of our financial performance this quarter, we are increasing guidance to $1.60 billion to $1.605 billion in 2026. We continue to expect 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $65 million. And with that, we will open it up to questions.
隨著世界對 AI 所能帶來的效益——也就是讓人們活得更長、更健康——愈發渴求,Tempus 具備獨特優勢,因為我們已策略性地累積了驅動這些模型所需的資料,以及將其交付給病患的分發平台。基於本季的財務表現,我們將 2026 年營收指引上調至 16.00 億至 16.05 億美元。我們仍預期 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 約為 6,500 萬美元。接下來我們將開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Kyle Mikson, Canaccord Genuity.
(操作員指示) Kyle Mikson,Canaccord Genuity。
Kyle Mikson - Equity Analyst
Kyle Mikson - Equity Analyst
Congrats on the quarter. So one question on hereditary. You're hoping that return to stable growth next year, but just given these proposed financial schedule rates that [doctor in PAMA CLFS]. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about potential headwinds there given and then obviously, ASP tailwinds on the oncology side. So maybe just talk about diagnostics outlook for '27?
恭喜本季表現。我有一個關於遺傳(檢測)方面的問題。你們希望明年回到穩定成長,但考量到這些擬議的財務排程費率([doctor in PAMA CLFS])。我想請教你們如何看待那邊可能的逆風,以及腫瘤端ASP的順風。所以也許請談談你們對2027年診斷業務的展望?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I can start. So I think the overall hereditary business seems to be poised to do much better as we move forward than it has over the last few quarters, in large part because it's both lapping excessive growth last year, which we've talked about relative to the -- some of the market dynamics where you had a big player in the market that was having some financial issues, a bunch of volume moved over. And so instead of kind of nice even whatever year 15% growth year after year, you have this like jump up to 30% growth that we're now lapping.
好的。我可以先開始。我認為整體遺傳業務在往後推進時,表現看起來會比過去幾季好很多,主要原因是:一方面是在與去年過度成長的基期比較(我們之前也談過),這與一些市場動態有關——當時市場上一家大型業者出現財務問題,導致大量檢測量轉移過來。因此,原本可能是每年穩定約15%的成長,變成突然跳升到30%的成長,而我們現在正處於消化這個高基期的階段。
We've seen some good sign of that in September and October where unit growth rates have returned to low double digits. So we feel overall like that business is moving in a better direction. And whatever macro headwind there is in terms of guidance is kind of small compared to the massive unaddressed TAM relative to the fact that current guidelines and current reimbursement would cover about 70 million lives and we run in the US, and we run something like 2 million tests a year. So I think we still have a very underpenetrated market. I suspect as more and more literature comes out finding clear links between germline variants and diseases that can be prevented or managed earlier, you'll see this category continue to be stable and grow. And Jim can cover ASPs on the oncology side.
我們在9月與10月看到一些良好跡象,單位成長率已回到低雙位數。所以整體而言,我們覺得這項業務正朝更好的方向發展。而就指引層面而言,無論宏觀上有什麼逆風,相較於龐大且尚未被滿足的TAM,其影響其實很小;因為依照現行指引與現行給付,約可涵蓋我們在美國所服務的7,000萬人,而我們一年大約只做200萬次檢測。所以我認為市場滲透率仍然很低。我猜測,隨著越來越多文獻出現,清楚指出胚系(germline)變異與可預防或可更早管理的疾病之間的關聯,你會看到這個類別持續穩定並成長。至於腫瘤端的ASP,Jim可以補充。
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. So on ASPs for hereditary, just as a reminder, obviously, hereditary cancer based on the majority of that revenue, but we do have a small but growing rare business. And so we don't anticipate material impacts from PAMA on the hereditary cancer rates in that we've long said that the hereditary rates for us will actually probably increase slightly over time as rare becomes a bigger piece of the overall pie. So that's the story on ASPs for hereditary.
是的。關於遺傳業務的ASP,提醒一下,顯然遺傳性癌症占了大部分營收,但我們也有一個規模較小但正在成長的罕見疾病業務。因此,我們不預期PAMA會對遺傳性癌症的費率造成重大影響;我們長期以來也說過,對我們而言,遺傳業務的費率其實可能會隨時間略為上升,因為罕見疾病在整體組合中的占比會變大。這就是遺傳業務ASP的情況。
And then on the oncology side, as we talked about, given the expansion of our FDA approval to include kind of tumor only for our XT test, that updated pricing will kick in on January 1 and allow us to move the remaining XT volume over. That gives us about $80 million of uplift in oncology ASP in 2027. And then we still have XF going through the FDA process. And once that finalizes the process and hopefully gets approved, then there'll be even a larger increase as we migrate XF to the FDA-approved version of the assets.
然後在腫瘤端,如我們所談到的,鑑於我們的XT檢測FDA核准範圍擴大,納入某種程度上的「僅腫瘤(tumor only)」適應症,更新後的定價將於1月1日生效,並讓我們能把剩餘的XT檢測量轉移過去。這將在2027年為我們帶來約8,000萬美元的腫瘤ASP提升。此外,XF仍在走FDA流程。一旦流程完成並希望獲得核准,當我們把XF轉移到FDA核准版本的資產上時,還會有更大幅度的提升。
So lots of tailwind from ASP expected on the oncology side beginning early in '27, and we don't anticipate much impact on the hereditary [business].
因此,從2027年初開始,預期腫瘤端ASP會有很多順風,而我們不預期遺傳[業務]會受到太大影響。
Operator
Operator
Sarah James, Cantor Fitzgerald.
Sarah James,Cantor Fitzgerald。
Sarah James - Analyst
Sarah James - Analyst
I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the headwinds and tailwinds in '27. So can we assume that CGP volume holds in the low 20s% and data and applications might be closer to 30% than 25% you've still got the incremental gross profit, two-thirds of it even after Personalis being reinvested. Can we get to the 25% long-term range and thinking out further once we get the benefit of xT and xF uplift to '28 be a year above that 25% CAGR.
我希望你們能談談2027年的逆風與順風。所以我們是否可以假設CGP量能維持在低20%區間,而資料與應用可能更接近30%而不是25%;你們仍有增量毛利,即使在併入Personalis後其中三分之二被再投資。我們能否達到長期25%的區間?再往後看,一旦我們在2028年享受到xT與xF的提升,2028年是否會成為高於25% CAGR的一年?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean I think -- so first of all, we feel like a business at our size growing at 25% a year over a long term is incredibly healthy. So we've always said we're more interested in long-term 25% growth than we are in short-term 30% growth that then decelerates. So I mean, when you talk about a business that's going to do a few billion dollars in revenue that's growing at 25%, that means like literally that every year, you're adding $500 million or more of new revenue, and then that becomes $1 billion of new revenue and more and more.
是的。我想——首先,我們認為以我們目前的規模,長期每年成長25%是一個非常健康的狀態。所以我們一直說,我們更在意長期25%的成長,而不是短期30%但之後又減速的成長。當你談的是一家營收將達到數十億美元、且以25%成長的企業,這代表你每一年實際上都在新增5億美元或更多的新營收,接著會變成新增10億美元的新營收,並且越來越多。
So we're into the law of large numbers. We're fortunate that our two main businesses, our oncology sequencing business is experiencing strong unit growth, about 32%. It's actually up from last quarter. It's got obviously rising ASPs, both because our solid tumor portfolio is about to be reimbursed at the ADLT rate and then when you get into the later part of the year, you'll have the -- could have FDA approval where you're going to get an even bigger step up.
所以我們正進入「大數法則」的階段。我們很幸運,我們兩大主要業務中,腫瘤定序業務的單位成長強勁,約32%。其實比上一季還高。而且ASP顯然在上升,原因一方面是我們的實體腫瘤產品組合即將以ADLT費率獲得給付;另一方面到了年內較後段,你可能會取得FDA核准,屆時會有更大一步的上調。
So we've got really strong unit growth, rising ASPs, and our data business is performing even better in the aggregate at about 33% growth. And obviously, we've announced a string of very big deals with Merck and BionTech and now BMS. And so it's really the core businesses are super strong. But we have other businesses like our hereditary growing slower. And so in the aggregate, we feel like this kind of 25%-plus growth rate is achievable and achievable long term.
所以我們有非常強的單位成長、上升的ASP,而我們的資料業務整體表現更好,成長約33%。而且很明顯,我們已宣布與Merck、BioNTech,以及現在的BMS達成一連串非常大型的交易。因此核心業務非常強勁。但我們也有其他業務,例如遺傳業務成長較慢。因此整體而言,我們認為這種25%以上的成長率是可達成的,而且長期也可達成。
Is it possible that you get into '27 or '28 and have moments where the business is growing significantly faster, either because of ASP lift or because the data business just is running really hot? Yes. But even if it is, even if we deliver a quarter where the aggregate growth is materially higher, I will say the same thing, which is it's great, I'm glad, but at the end of the day, if you can sustain 25% growth over a decade over another decade, you will build a really large business. And we think we're building a really large business.
是否有可能在2027或2028出現某些時點,業務成長顯著更快,可能是因為ASP提升,或是資料業務表現非常火熱?是的。但即便如此,即便我們某一季交出整體成長率明顯更高的成績,我也會說同樣的話:這很棒、我很高興,但歸根結底,如果你能在十年、再十年的時間裡維持25%的成長,你就能建立一個非常大的企業。而我們認為我們正在打造一個非常大的企業。
Operator
Operator
Mark Massaro, BTIG.
Mark Massaro,BTIG。
Mark Massaro - Equity Analyst
Mark Massaro - Equity Analyst
Nice continued growth in MRD, you're tracking about up 3,000 units per quarter, recognizing that only 15% of your sales force is selling today and the shareholder meeting is around the corner after Thanksgiving. Can you just give us a sense for once Personalis in your portfolio, to what extent you plan to ungate and let the remaining 85% of reps sell the test? Is that something that we could expect in the first half of 2027? Or is that -- are there other criteria you need to see later in the year?
MRD持續成長表現不錯,你們每季大約增加3,000個單位;考量到目前只有15%的銷售團隊在銷售,而且股東會在感恩節後不久就要召開。你能否讓我們了解一下,一旦Personalis納入你們的產品組合,你們計畫在多大程度上解除限制,讓其餘85%的業務代表也能銷售該檢測?這是否是我們可以預期在2027年上半年發生的事?或者——你們是否還需要在年內較後段看到其他條件?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I think it's going to be largely a function of -- it's more a function of reimbursement than it is a function of closing the deal. We have to be sensitive that at the present moment when Personalis runs these tests they lose money. And once we acquire them, we'll be in the same boat. Granted, we are in this really nice place where given the categories they've got reimbursement for in 2026.
我認為這在很大程度上將取決於——它更多是報銷(reimbursement)的函數,而不是成交(closing the deal)的函數。我們必須留意的是,在目前這個時間點,Personalis 執行這些檢測時是虧錢的。而一旦我們收購他們,我們也會處於同樣的處境。當然,我們處在一個非常有利的位置,因為就他們已在 2026 年取得報銷的那些類別而言。
They're in this rising ASP landscape where they're getting much closer to being breakeven on an individual test basis. And we think with some of the approvals coming, obviously, in categories like colorectal cancer, we think we will turn that corner where on a per-test basis, they're generating basically positive gross profit. That's a big unlock to really ramp up.
他們正處於 ASP(平均售價)上升的環境中,單次檢測層面距離損益兩平已經非常接近。而我們認為,隨著一些核准陸續到位——顯然在結直腸癌等類別——我們會跨過那個拐點,使得在每次檢測的基礎上,他們基本上能產生正向的毛利。這將是能真正加速放量的一個重大解鎖點。
Now that said, we're still ramping now. We're adding sales members to our team in the aggregate across all of our different assay categories, and we will in '27 dial up MRD in sales efforts. But the big unlock, which I suspect will be, I don't know, it could be midyear, it could be Q2, it could be Q3, who knows. But somewhere, I suspect midyear, you'll be in this boat where they will turn the corner and be kind of positive -- it was profit dollar contribution on a per-test basis, and then we'll feel much better about really starting to put the pedal to the metal.
不過話說回來,我們現在仍在爬坡。我們正在為整體團隊增聘銷售人員,涵蓋我們所有不同的檢測(assay)類別;並且我們會在 2027 年加大 MRD 的銷售投入。但我猜測真正的重大解鎖點會在——我不知道,可能是年中,可能是第二季,可能是第三季,誰知道。但我推測在某個時間點、可能是年中,你們會看到他們跨過拐點,在單次檢測的基礎上,對利潤美元貢獻轉為正向——然後我們就會更有信心真正把油門踩到底。
So I think over the latter half of '27 into '28, I would suspect growth will continue to be really strong.
所以我認為從 2027 年下半年一路到 2028 年,我預期成長會持續非常強勁。
Operator
Operator
Bradley Bowers, Mizuho.
Bradley Bowers,Mizuho。
Bradley Bowers - Analyst
Bradley Bowers - Analyst
Just wanted to maybe ask another one on MRD while we're here. Definitely understand the timing with respect to how much you're getting paid per test and colorectal is a big unlock -- what do you think about the competitive landscape that you're launching into? Obviously, Tempus has a lot of things that it offers to physicians that would allow the test to win the physician level, but maybe just want to hear about the MRD offering as it's fully rolled into Tempus and how that compares to competition and how we can maybe think about market share expectations for the test?
想趁我們在這裡,可能再問一個關於 MRD 的問題。我完全理解就每次檢測能拿到多少報酬而言的時間點,而結直腸癌是一個很大的解鎖點——那你怎麼看你們即將進入的競爭格局?顯然,Tempus 提供給醫師很多東西,能讓檢測在醫師端勝出;但我想聽聽 MRD 產品在完整整合進 Tempus 之後的樣貌,以及它相較競品如何,還有我們該如何思考這項檢測的市占率預期?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I'll jump in. So the assay first of all, is best in class. I mean it's, in terms of its performance, it performs as well as any assay out there. Obviously, we take a better. But it's a super well-performing assay. So we're never meeting with oncologists, whether it's academic medical center or community practitioners who were saying, God, I wish you had a better test. They love the test. So the real unlock to volume is just that the full Tempus sales machine is kind of unlocked to sell MRD at scale.
好,我來回答。首先,這個檢測(assay)是同級最佳(best in class)。也就是說,就效能表現而言,它跟市面上任何檢測一樣好。當然,我們認為更好。但它確實是一個表現非常出色的檢測。所以我們跟腫瘤科醫師開會時,不論是學術醫學中心或社區端醫師,從來沒有人說:天啊,我希望你們有更好的檢測。他們很喜歡這個檢測。因此,真正能帶動量的解鎖點,只是完整的 Tempus 銷售機器被「解鎖」後,能以規模化方式銷售 MRD。
And that, again, is a function of do you have unit economics that support that, and we're getting very close. I think once that's in place, the same benefits that drive our CGP business, which is this best-in-class technology stack, deep integration to thousands of hospitals, a broad compendium of tests that all are interconnected to clinical insights and algorithmic diagnostics, that all just literally feeds perfectly into MRD. And our clients, our physicians are interested in us offering more and more, more broadly. And so I think there's really no competitive impediment to us getting to real scale.
而這又回到:你是否具備支撐規模化銷售的單位經濟(unit economics),我們已經非常接近了。我認為一旦這點到位,驅動我們 CGP 業務的同樣優勢——也就是同級最佳的技術堆疊、與數千家醫院的深度整合、廣泛的檢測組合(compendium of tests),且彼此互相連結到臨床洞見與演算法診斷——都會非常完美地導入 MRD。而我們的客戶、我們的醫師也希望我們提供越來越多、覆蓋更廣的服務。因此我認為,我們達到真正規模化並不存在競爭上的阻礙。
And I would suspect I think I've said this before, that at the end of the day, what Tempus has done that's, I think, unique is no other company like ours are number one or number two in more than one category. We are number one or number two in solid. We are number one or number two in liquid. We are obviously number one or number two in hereditary cancer profiling, and we will be number one or number two in MRD, I think.
而且我猜——我想我以前也說過——最終 Tempus 做到的一件我認為很獨特的事是:沒有任何像我們這樣的公司,能在不只一個類別做到第一或第二。我們在實體(solid)是第一或第二。我們在液體(liquid)是第一或第二。我們顯然在遺傳性癌症檢測(hereditary cancer profiling)是第一或第二,而我認為我們在 MRD 也會是第一或第二。
There's just no reason for me to believe that market won't evolve the same way. When we entered solid tumor profiling, Foundation Medicine was every bit the kind of lies that Natera is today and the same thing in liquids. So I suspect we will do quite well in MRD because we wrap all this technology and all this AI and all this contextualization around these tests, and we just become a test of preference for our physicians.
我沒有理由相信市場不會以同樣方式演進。當我們進入實體腫瘤檢測時,Foundation Medicine 當時的地位就跟今天的 Natera 一樣;液體檢測也是同樣情況。所以我推測我們在 MRD 會做得相當好,因為我們把所有這些技術、所有這些 AI、以及所有這些情境化(contextualization)都包裹在這些檢測周圍,讓我們成為醫師偏好的檢測。
Operator
Operator
Ryan MacDonald, Needham.
Ryan MacDonald,Needham。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Eric and Jim, maybe to talk about the success you're seeing in the data business, obviously, amazing year so far with the [$500 million, over $550 million] of bookings throughout the year. I guess as you look at sort of maybe the state of the pipeline and maybe of the business and demand cycle. Are you seeing any changes in terms of pull forward of demand -- and then as we think about sort of the components of the pipeline, what's the mix that you're seeing sort of within oncology, neuro, cardiology, some of these areas? And Jim, how does this make you feel about the level of visibility going into 2027 to hit those 25% to 30% targets that you're looking for in the business?
Eric 和 Jim,想談談你們在數據業務上看到的成功;顯然今年到目前為止非常亮眼,全年累計簽約(bookings)達到約 5 億美元、超過 5.5 億美元。我想問,當你們觀察管線(pipeline)的狀態、以及業務與需求週期時,你們是否看到任何需求提前(pull forward)的變化——另外,當我們思考管線的組成時,你們在腫瘤、神經、心臟科等領域看到的組合占比如何?以及 Jim,這讓你對 2027 年的可見度(visibility)有何感受,是否足以達成你們在該業務上所期待的 25% 到 30% 目標?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Jim, do you want to take it?
Jim,你要回答嗎?
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I mean I'd say that the pipeline -- we've been talking about this now for several quarters. That's a kind of towards the tail end of last year, we saw kind of an uptick in engagement with our biopharma partners, we started commencing out of that, and I think you've seen it playing out in the deals that we've announced thus far this year. The beauty of these deals are as we march our customers up from being episodic purchasers to these large strategic collaborations, it obviously just enhances the level of visibility that we have for that business.
好。我會說,關於管線——我們已經談了好幾季了。大概從去年下半年接近尾聲時,我們看到與生物製藥合作夥伴的互動參與度(engagement)有所上升,我們也開始從那裡啟動推進,我想你們已經在我們今年迄今宣布的交易中看到這點逐步展現。這些交易的好處在於,當我們把客戶從零星、事件型的採購者(episodic purchasers)逐步提升為大型策略合作(large strategic collaborations)時,這顯然會提升我們對該業務的可見度。
So you're no longer trying to get deals signed, you had them in under contract for kind of five, six years, very long-term deals that give us that visibility. And so as we enter '27, we feel like we're in a really strong position to see that growth, not only in '27, but '28 '29 as well.
因此你不再是努力去把交易簽下來;你已經把他們以合約形式鎖定了大約五、六年——非常長期的合約,讓我們具備那樣的可見度。所以當我們進入 2027 年時,我們覺得自己處於非常有利的位置,不僅能在 2027 年看到那樣的成長,2028、2029 也同樣如此。
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. And I'll just jump in. I mean, I think the nice part about the data business that we've been able to build is we used to -- our business about four or five years ago was much more lumpy and episodic in terms of the way we did these deals. But over the last half a decade, we've really migrated people to long-term subscriptions where people are basically connecting to our lens platform.
對。我再補充一下。我認為我們能建立起來的數據業務有個很好的地方:四、五年前,我們做這些交易的方式在收入表現上更不平滑、也更偏事件型(lumpy and episodic)。但在過去半個十年裡,我們已經大幅把客戶轉向長期訂閱(long-term subscriptions),基本上就是讓客戶連接到我們的 lens 平台。
They have access to the totality of our data they're able to, based on the level of subscription they sign up for, pick a certain number of files that they can download annually and do work with more and more, as we've mentioned, they're now connecting that data to private GPU clusters that we set up for them where they can build models that they can keep in our environment to basically do a bunch of their AI-modeling work. And so it just -- it becomes much smoother long term, sticky. And so it's nice to be going into -- we'll be going into 2027 and like the strongest position we've been in for a long time, we saw that same thing going into '26.
他們可以存取我們的全部資料;並且能夠依據他們所選擇的訂閱等級,每年挑選一定數量的檔案下載並進行更多工作。而且如同我們提到的,他們現在正把這些資料連接到我們為他們建置的私有 GPU 叢集,在那裡他們可以建立模型,並將模型保留在我們的環境中,基本上用來完成大量的 AI 建模工作。因此從長期來看,整個流程會順暢得多,也更具黏著性。所以很高興的是,我們將邁入 2027 年,處於我們很長一段時間以來最強的位置;我們在邁入 2026 年時也看到同樣的情況。
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
And one more thing that I'd add is one of the exciting things about the BMS collaboration is the work that we're doing in Alzheimer's. We've long talked about expanding beyond oncology, although oncology drove most of the revenue today, but the data sets that we've invested in over the last 10 years well beyond oncology in other disease areas and seeing that demand pick up and expand beyond oncology is something we're really, really excited about.
另外我還想補充一點:BMS 合作中令人振奮的一件事,是我們在阿茲海默症方面所做的工作。我們長期以來一直在談要擴展到腫瘤學以外;雖然目前大部分營收仍由腫瘤學驅動,但我們在過去 10 年投資建立的資料集,早已遠遠超出腫瘤學、涵蓋其他疾病領域。看到需求開始回升並擴展到腫瘤學以外,這是我們非常、非常興奮的事。
Operator
Operator
Evie Kozlowski, Goldman Sachs.
Evie Kozlowski,高盛。
Evie Koslowski - Analyst
Evie Koslowski - Analyst
So given the strength, I think you mentioned in the AI-modeling portion of the Insights business, how does this change the stickiness of the relationships with your customers? And then maybe touch on what percentage of the Insights data customers also utilize AI modeling and then how you expect this to evolve into next year?
所以考量到你們在 Insights 業務的 AI 建模部分所展現的強勁表現,你提到的這點,這會如何改變你們與客戶關係的黏著性?另外也請談談:在 Insights 資料客戶中,有多少比例也會使用 AI 建模?以及你預期這在明年會如何演進?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think the stickiness is essentially a function of how we've designed the data business. So as I mentioned a second ago, if you go back, we started licensing data, maybe, roughly six or seven years or something like that. And back then, you would be like, I want 1,000 files of cancer patients that look like this and we would identify that data and then you would download that data in your environment.
是的。我認為黏著性基本上取決於我們如何設計資料業務。如我剛才提到的,如果回頭看,我們大概在六、七年前左右開始授權資料。在那時,你可能會說:我想要 1,000 份符合這種特徵的癌症病患檔案;我們會找出那些資料,然後你把資料下載到你自己的環境中。
And so we didn't know what you were doing with the data. We didn't know how -- what kind of value you're getting from it. We didn't -- we hope that you would call back six months later, a year later, want more data, but it was very transactional. Over time, we basically said, look, we built this very large environment. We have something like 700 software engineers that have been working here for almost a decade. So we built this very large multimodal technology environment to interrogate this kind of data, and we started saying to our clients, why don't you do that work in our environment?
因此我們並不知道你拿這些資料做什麼。我們不知道——你從中獲得了什麼樣的價值。我們也不知道——我們希望你在六個月後、一年後會再打來想要更多資料,但那是非常交易式的。隨著時間推進,我們基本上說:你看,我們建置了這個非常龐大的環境。我們大概有 700 名軟體工程師在這裡工作了將近十年。所以我們打造了一個非常大型的多模態技術環境,用來探勘這類資料;我們開始對客戶說:你何不就在我們的環境裡做這些工作?
It's just -- we've just invested way more in it than you have -- and so people began doing more and more of their analytic work, generating insights from the data in our lens platform. And then over time, we move to this kind of concept of, okay, we'll actually put all the data in lens you can build cohorts of interest in lens, pull down the data, just the exact data you want, the exact patients you want, which typically have criteria that would almost match a trial based on inclusion exclusive criteria.
這只是——我們在這上面的投資遠遠超過你們——因此人們開始在我們的 Lens 平台中做越來越多的分析工作,從資料中產生洞見。然後隨著時間推移,我們轉向這樣的概念:好,我們會把所有資料都放在 Lens 裡;你可以在 Lens 裡建立你感興趣的隊列(cohorts),再把資料拉下來——只拉你要的精準資料、你要的精準病患;而這些條件通常會非常接近臨床試驗的納入與排除標準。
We're going like very deep characteristics of a cohort, pull that data into a workspace within our environment. Build either do your analytics or build models and then you're off and running. And obviously, that latter part building models is new. You used to be able to just do analytics and then take the analytics out or download the files directly in your own environment.
我們會針對隊列的特徵挖得非常深,把資料拉到我們環境中的工作區。你可以做分析,或建立模型,然後就可以開始運作。而很明顯地,後面那一段——建立模型——是新的。過去你只能做分析,然後把分析結果帶走,或是直接把檔案下載到你自己的環境。
But now we're connecting lens to 8 GPUs, 16 GPUs, 32 GPUs, some kind of cluster like that. Typically denominations to date, where clients are signing up for like three years of 32 GPUs or three years of 64 GPUs and they will build -- they're building models in our environment that either have to stay in our environment or you pay an egress fee to pull them out. And so it's gone from like not sticky to crazy sticky. And so we just -- in light of how people are using our data today, we just don't know how they would in mass get off unless somebody else builds the same set of products we've built, which we don't see.
但現在我們把 Lens 連接到 8 顆 GPU、16 顆 GPU、32 顆 GPU 之類的叢集。到目前為止通常是這些規格;客戶會簽約,例如三年 32 顆 GPU 或三年 64 顆 GPU,並且會在我們的環境中建立模型——這些模型要嘛必須留在我們的環境裡,要嘛你需要支付資料外傳(egress)費用才能把它們拉出去。因此它已經從「不太黏」變成「超級黏」。所以——就人們今天使用我們資料的方式來看——除非有人打造出我們所建立的同一套產品,否則我們不知道他們要如何大規模地離開;而我們並不認為會有人做到。
Operator
Operator
Subbu Nambi, Guggenheim.
Subbu Nambi,Guggenheim。
Subbu Nambi - Equity Analyst
Subbu Nambi - Equity Analyst
In your letter, you specifically called out strength in xF order acquisitions being up 25% year over year. Could you give us any additional color on what is driving the strength? Is there any specific indication or academic setting, community setting, EMR integration, any reason?
在你們的股東信中,你們特別點出 xF 訂單取得(order acquisitions)年增 25% 的強勁表現。你能否提供更多背景,說明是什麼在驅動這股強勢?是否有任何特定適應症、學術機構場景、社區醫療場景、EMR 整合,或其他原因?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I'm happy to start. So you have some macro trends, which we've talked about a bit in the past that are just driving in the aggregate, some overall liquid volume. One of them is the benefits of concurrent testing, especially for metastatic patients is just high. So there's just been a ton of literature over the past few years about mutations, driver mutations you can find from solid tumor profiling or liquid profiling that you have to do both to find all of them.
我很樂意先開始。你會看到一些總體趨勢——我們過去也談過一些——它們在整體上推動了整體液體檢體量(liquid volume)。其中之一是同步檢測(concurrent testing)的效益,特別是對轉移性病患而言,效益非常高。因此過去幾年有大量文獻指出:你可以從實體腫瘤分析(solid tumor profiling)或液體分析(liquid profiling)中找到的突變、驅動突變,你必須兩者都做,才能把所有突變都找出來。
And that -- and we published on this as well, but it can be 10% to 20% of mutations that would be therapeutically relevant that you won't find if you only do solid tumor profiling or you only do liquid biopsies. So you have this movement to do both more often for later-stage patients that are high risk of mortality. And then you also have the benefits of earlier testing, serial testing certainly in certain indications where more and more, it's becoming important to be changing therapies every six months or every year and getting another insight from a test. And so liquid is just a beneficiary of that. We've seen it, I think, overall in the market, Guardant, which is a leader in that space has posted really strong unit volume as well.
而且——我們也發表過相關研究——如果你只做實體腫瘤分析,或只做液體切片(liquid biopsies),你可能會漏掉 10% 到 20% 具有治療相關性的突變。因此出現一個趨勢:對於晚期、死亡風險高的病患,更常同時做兩種檢測。此外,你也看到更早期檢測、以及序列檢測(serial testing)的效益——在某些適應症中,越來越重要的是每六個月或每一年就更換治療,並透過檢測取得新的洞見。因此液體檢測自然成為受益者。我想我們也在整體市場看到這點;Guardant 作為該領域的領導者,也公布了非常強勁的檢測量(unit volume)。
And we just see this as a near-term trend of really robust growth in liquid. Up until now, our growth rates have been relatively consistent. Solid's been growing really strong, as as liquid. And we've historically called out that it's not meaningful to talk about the difference between the two of them. That's still the case for Q3. Our solid portfolio grew really quickly. But we did see a sign here in September, which we called out that we saw this uptick of whatever, 300, 400 basis points.
我們認為這是液體檢測在短期內呈現非常強勁成長的趨勢。到目前為止,我們的成長率相對一致。實體檢測成長很強,液體檢測也是如此。而我們過去也特別指出,去談兩者之間的差異並沒有太大意義。在第三季仍是如此:我們的實體產品組合成長非常快。但我們確實在 9 月看到一個訊號——我們也特別點出——我們看到大約 300 到 400 個基點的上升。
If that continues into Q4 you will start to see the first signs of really differentiation between liquid and solid, where, even with really strong growth rates and solid and it was outperforming. And with that plus MRD, it could be a propel growth rates over the next several quarters.
如果這種情況延續到第四季,你將開始看到液體與固體之間真正分化的第一個跡象;即使在非常強勁的成長率下,固體業務也一直表現優於同業。再加上 MRD,這可能會在接下來幾個季度推動成長率。
Operator
Operator
Dan Brennan, TD Cowen.
Dan Brennan,TD Cowen。
Daniel Brennan - Analyst
Daniel Brennan - Analyst
Maybe just on EBITDA, nice print. Consensus has margins expanding mix, I think, to 7% and 11% in '28. And there's always this push and pull for diagnostic companies, how much you reinvest back in the business versus let it drop through. So I'm wondering, you've got that slide in the deck showing EBITDA like a line going up.
也許就 EBITDA 而言,這次數字很漂亮。我認為市場共識預期毛利率因產品組合改善而擴張,到 2028 年分別達到 7% 和 11%。而診斷公司總是存在這種拉鋸:你要把多少再投資回業務、又要讓多少直接流到損益表。所以我想問,你們簡報裡有一張投影片顯示 EBITDA 像一條往上走的線。
Like to 7%, 11%, is that like a reasonable ramp how you guys think about it? And connected to that. I know you had the $2,600 realized oncology price that you also pointed to in the next few years to be meaningfully above what we have today. So I'm just wondering how much of that increase in oncology pricing, you guys would be inclined to drop through to the bottom line?
像到 7%、11% 這樣的水準,這是否是你們認為合理的爬坡路徑?以及與此相關。我知道你們提到已實現的腫瘤學定價為 2,600 美元,並且也指出未來幾年會顯著高於我們今天看到的水準。所以我想問,腫瘤學定價的這部分提升,你們會傾向於讓其中多少直接反映到最終盈餘(bottom line)?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Let me start. Jimmy, you'll jump in?
我先開始。Jimmy,你再補充?
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, more than happy to start and then you can jump in. So I think our view on EBITDA remains the same. We're still relatively early days in a lot of the offerings. And so we've had this perspective of reinvesting two-thirds or roughly two-thirds of any incremental gross profit dollars that we generate back in the business and then letting a third drop down to the bottom line.
好,我很樂意先說,然後你再接著補充。所以我認為我們對 EBITDA 的看法維持不變。我們在許多產品/服務上仍處於相對早期階段。因此我們一直的觀點是:把我們所產生的任何新增毛利美元中的三分之二、或大約三分之二,再投資回業務,然後讓三分之一流到最終盈餘。
So obviously, with Personalis coming on board, we are already going to invest a lot in MRD. We will utilize some of the reinvestment dollars to absorb with the burn from Personalis -- but then after another couple of years, then that slips, right? Then you're generating meaningful gross profit dollars such that you really only need to invest a third, you can let kind of two-thirds drop down to the bottom line. So we want to demonstrate that we continue to see leverage in the business, which we saw obviously a big step forward that in the quarter.
所以很明顯,隨著 Personalis 併入,我們已經會在 MRD 上投入很多。我們會運用部分再投資資金來吸收 Personalis 的燒錢(虧損)——但再過一兩年之後,那就會下降,對吧?接著你會產生可觀的毛利美元,以至於你其實只需要投入三分之一,就可以讓大約三分之二流到最終盈餘。所以我們希望證明我們持續看到業務的營運槓桿,而我們在本季顯然看到了一大步的改善。
But we're not in a position where we want to maximize EBITDA in the short term because we think the opportunity set across our entire portfolio is so large and that would be a poor choice that our -- given that where we're at in our life cycle.
但我們並不處於想在短期內把 EBITDA 最大化的位置,因為我們認為整個產品組合的機會集合非常大;以我們目前所處的生命週期階段來看,那會是個不佳的選擇。
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. And I was just going to add, we have obviously -- now you can start to see this really strong EBITDA trend line that is picking up. But Personalis who, assuming that obviously closes here the next whatever later in Q4, they're burning money. And so you have to look at both businesses as one, we'll have to absorb some of their losses. But even absorbing their losses, we still expect improvements in EBITDA, and we're on a really nice trajectory where we've got to decide how to invest the strong gross profit dollar growth we're generating quarter-after-quarter.
對。我只是想補充一下:你現在確實可以開始看到這條非常強勁的 EBITDA 趨勢線正在加速上升。但 Personalis——假設交易在第四季稍晚的某個時間完成——他們是在燒錢的。因此你必須把兩個業務視為一體,我們需要吸收他們的一部分虧損。但即使吸收他們的虧損,我們仍預期 EBITDA 會改善;而且我們正處在一個很好的軌跡上,需要決定如何投資我們每季持續產生的強勁毛利美元成長。
Operator
Operator
Dan Arias, Stifel.
Dan Arias,Stifel。
Daniel Arias - Analyst
Daniel Arias - Analyst
Eric or Jim, within data, can you just maybe catch us up on where trials might land for the year on revenues or growth? And then what the outlook might be there in the context of where AI is helping to cause I mean trial matching seems to be one of these areas where pharma folks are most encouraged about how things can get better with some of these newer capabilities. So curious whether you see an inflection there in the next year or two?
Eric 或 Jim,在資料(data)這塊,你們能否更新一下今年 trials(臨床試驗相關)營收或成長可能落在什麼水準?另外,在 AI 正在帶來助力的背景下,那邊的展望如何?我的意思是,試驗配對(trial matching)似乎是藥廠人士最受鼓舞、認為能透過這些新能力改善的領域之一。所以想了解你們是否看到未來一到兩年會出現拐點(inflection)?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. We -- so we took our real-time or just-in-time clinical trial matching business, which we call time. We tried to build the marketplace for a while to see if like small biotechs could load in their trials and with this marketplace evolved. We didn't see that growth.
是的。我們——我們把即時或準時(just-in-time)的臨床試驗配對業務稱為 time。我們曾嘗試建立一個市集(marketplace)一段時間,看看小型生技公司是否會把他們的試驗放上來,讓這個市集逐步演化。但我們沒有看到那樣的成長。
And so we pivoted the business really about a year ago, maybe 18 months ago, to be more enterprise focused on our largest enterprise data clients. So we're fortunate now that this network, which spans north of 1,000 oncologists across the country and has this really robust platform to be able to identify patients that are fit for a trial and get them on a trial produces what pharma needs badly, which is enrollments. We're a high generator of enrollments for pharma. And so it's a really nice asset.
因此我們大約在一年前、也許 18 個月前,將業務轉向更以企業端為核心,聚焦在我們最大的企業資料客戶。我們很幸運,現在這個網路涵蓋全國超過 1,000 位腫瘤科醫師,並擁有非常強健的平台,能夠辨識適合參與試驗的病患並讓他們進入試驗,這正好產出藥廠迫切需要的東西:收案(enrollments)。我們是藥廠收案的高產出來源。所以這是一項非常好的資產。
And -- but I don't think it's going to scale into a $1 billion business. And so we had to essentially target it toward, hey, we're in these strategic partnerships with more and more large pharma clients, whether that's BMS or Merck or AstraZeneca or whatever. And these folks want to need help, and we're tightly integrated. And so our time network now is enterprise-focused where you as a client have to come on, load on all or most of your oncology trials, and that's how the baskets are built.
但是——我不認為它會擴張成一家 10 億美元規模的業務。因此我們必須把它鎖定在:我們與越來越多大型藥廠客戶建立的策略合作夥伴關係中,不論是 BMS、Merck、AstraZeneca 等等。這些客戶需要協助,而我們與他們高度整合。因此我們的 time 網路現在是以企業端為導向:作為客戶,你必須加入並上載你全部或大部分的腫瘤學試驗,這樣才能建立這些「籃子」(baskets)。
And we have a wait list of folks now that want into that network. So the market dynamics have allowed that to become a really premium product. And I suspect it will continue to grow nicely. It's just not going to be a huge business.
而我們現在有一份等候名單,都是想加入該網路的客戶。所以市場動態讓它成為一個非常高端(premium)的產品。我猜它會持續有不錯的成長。只是它不會是一個非常龐大的業務。
On the other side of our clinical trial-matching business, our CRO business, as we mentioned years ago, we've been kind of deemphasizing some of the just pure CRO work because there are other people that do that and do it well, and it is a business that is in significant flux relative to artificial intelligence and what that's going to mean for the administrative and logistic components of CRO. And you're obviously seeing a lot of these big frontier modeling companies do deals with big R&D departments at big pharma trying to figure some of that out. We're fortunate that we don't play in that space. It's not important to us. And so we're kind of -- we'll let other people tackle that.
在我們臨床試驗配對業務的另一端,也就是我們的 CRO 業務,如同我們多年前提到的,我們一直在某種程度上淡化一些純粹的 CRO 工作,因為有其他人做得很好;而且相對於人工智慧將對 CRO 的行政與物流組成帶來什麼影響,這個業務正處於顯著的變動之中。你也明顯看到許多大型前沿模型公司與大型藥廠的大型研發部門簽訂合作,試圖釐清其中的一些問題。我們很幸運,我們不在那個領域競爭。那對我們並不重要。所以我們會——讓其他人去處理那一塊。
Operator
Operator
I'll now pass the call back to Kendra for additional Q&A.
我現在把電話交回給 Kendra,進行更多問答。
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Matt. For the first time, we're pleased to answer questions submitted by retail investors through the Robinhood platform. Our first question, can you classify the opportunity for growth outside of oncology? Can you detail cardiology opportunities and other therapeutic areas of interest like nephrology, immunology, and neurology.
謝謝你,Matt。這是我們第一次很高興能回答散戶投資人透過 Robinhood 平台提交的問題。我們的第一個問題是:你們能否分類說明腫瘤學以外的成長機會?你們能否詳細說明心臟科的機會,以及其他感興趣的治療領域,例如腎臟科、免疫學與神經學。
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So I mean, obviously, as you mentioned a few minutes ago, one of the biggest benefits to the BMS deal is that it's our first really large deal outside oncology. So all of a sudden, we're building a very large Alzheimer's data set, it's a $55 million deal to generate a data set of like 0.5 million patients with Alzheimer's and late-stage dementia -- and so it's really exciting. We've done smaller projects historically in data apps to enter these new businesses, but this is really the first time someone is in making a very large investment in real-world data with Tempus to build these kind of agent platforms.
是的。所以我的意思是,顯然如你幾分鐘前提到的,BMS 這筆交易最大的好處之一是,這是我們在腫瘤學之外的第一筆真正大型交易。因此我們突然之間正在建立一個非常龐大的阿茲海默症資料集;這是一筆 5,500 萬美元的交易,用來生成一個約 50 萬名阿茲海默症與晚期失智症患者的資料集——所以這真的令人振奮。過去我們在資料應用(data apps)方面做過較小的專案來切入這些新業務,但這真的是第一次有人與 Tempus 一起,對真實世界資料進行非常大規模的投資,以建立這類代理(agent)平台。
And we're excited because we think it's the start of a whole new round of growth for our data business, and we suspect it's going to continue at scale. On the diagnostics side, we obviously are big in oncology. We do a bit of neuropsych testing. We do a bit of some rare testing.
我們也很興奮,因為我們認為這是我們資料業務新一輪成長的起點,而且我們預期它會持續以規模化方式推進。在診斷端,我們顯然在腫瘤學領域很強。我們也做一些神經心理測試。我們也做一些罕見疾病檢測。
It's more a function of where is the reimbursement for these tests -- and we, like other companies kind of have to follow where the reimbursement landscape goes before we can enter new categories. But we do have one of the broader portfolios today, pan disease because we're in -- we're in neuro, we do some cardiac testing, obviously, with big cancer portfolio. So we touch a bunch is these areas.
這更多取決於這些檢測的給付(reimbursement)在哪裡——而我們和其他公司一樣,在進入新類別之前,某種程度上必須跟著給付環境的走向。但我們目前確實擁有較廣的產品組合,涵蓋多疾病(pan-disease),因為我們在——我們在神經領域,也做一些心臟檢測,當然還有龐大的癌症產品組合。所以我們觸及了很多這些領域。
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Our next question. If investor appetite for AI-related companies weakens, how confident are you that operating cash flow and existing liquidity can fund your growth plans and the Personalis acquisition.
我們的下一個問題。如果投資人對 AI 相關公司的偏好轉弱,你們對於營運現金流與現有流動性足以支應你們的成長計畫以及 Personalis 收購案,有多大信心?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Super confident. Jim, do you want to want to come in--?
非常有信心。Jim,你要不要補充——?
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
James Rogers - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I mean I'd say that the nice thing and part of the reason our business model is different is we're not overly reliant on one product. And so we have a very strong Diagnostics business obviously, growth rates have been really strong in oncology. We're entering this period of kind of increasing ASPs pretty dramatically, almost $750 over the next couple of years.
是的。我想我會說,好的地方在於——也是我們商業模式不同的一部分原因——我們不會過度依賴單一產品。因此我們有非常強的診斷業務,顯然在腫瘤學的成長率一直非常強勁。我們正進入一個 ASP(平均售價)顯著提升的階段,未來幾年幾乎會提高約 750 美元。
And a lot of those dollars to be used to kind offund investments elsewhere. Similarly, on the data side, as we continue to sign up kind of these long-term agreements with biopharma, again, gives us that visibility over the next several years to continued growth. And lastly, as we've mentioned on previous calls, we're reinvesting heavily today. And certainly, those investments are meant to drive long-term growth. And so we scaled that level of investment as necessary as well. But to Eric's point, we're very confident in being able to look.
而其中很多資金將用來為其他領域的投資提供支援。同樣地,在資料端,隨著我們持續與生技製藥公司簽署這類長期協議,也再次讓我們對未來幾年的持續成長有更高的可見度。最後,如同我們在先前的電話會議中提到的,我們目前正在大力再投資。而且可以確定的是,這些投資是為了推動長期成長。因此我們也會視需要調整該投資水準的規模。但呼應 Eric 的觀點,我們對於能夠做到這點非常有信心。
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Our last retail question. Since data is the main input for Diagnostics and using AI to interpret and generate an outcome based on the data, how can Tempus ensure that it has a growing inflow of patient data and how can it ensure that it will have access to it in the future since it doesn't own the patient data?
我們最後一個散戶問題。既然資料是診斷的主要輸入,並使用 AI 來解讀資料並基於資料產生結果,Tempus 要如何確保病患資料的流入能持續成長?以及既然 Tempus 並不擁有病患資料,未來要如何確保仍能取得這些資料?
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Eric Lefkofsky - Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So first of all, our Diagnostic business is important for the Data business, no question. Obviously, we're fortunate that we are one of the largest sequencers of patients for next sequencing in the world. And so we have a very broad portfolio from hereditary profiling to comprehensive genomic profiling when a patient is being treated to MRD and multiple diseases that we would suspect there's going to be a constant flow of new diagnostic data entering our platform.
是的。首先,我們的診斷業務對資料業務很重要,毫無疑問。顯然我們很幸運,因為我們是全球最大的次世代定序(next-generation sequencing)病患定序機構之一。因此我們有非常廣泛的產品組合,從遺傳性(hereditary)分析到病患治療期間的全面性基因體分析(comprehensive genomic profiling),再到 MRD(微量殘存疾病)以及多種疾病;我們預期會有源源不絕的新診斷資料持續進入我們的平台。
That said, if you look at the 50 million patients or so within Tempus data set today, more than 80% of those patients are outside oncology. And even the patients within oncology, I think more than 80%, we didn't sequence right? They're basically patients where the data is coming in because we have many, many, many data partnerships with academic medical centers and community practitioners. We have different products we offer where we get data as part of that -- as part of the product offering in terms of closing care gaps or matching patients to clinical trials. And so we have a constant stream of data coming in from more than 8,000 providers.
話雖如此,如果你看 Tempus 目前資料集中約 5,000 萬名病患,其中超過 80% 是在腫瘤學之外。而即便是在腫瘤學內的病患,我認為也有超過 80% 不是我們做的定序,對吧?他們基本上是因為我們與學術醫學中心以及社區醫療執業者有非常非常多的資料合作夥伴關係,所以資料才會進來。我們也提供不同的產品,讓我們在——作為產品提供的一部分取得資料,例如縮小照護缺口(closing care gaps)或將病患配對到臨床試驗。因此我們從超過 8,000 家提供者那裡持續有資料流入。
And so we've -- over the last decade very intentionally tried to make sure the pipes that bring data into our platform are highly diversified so that we never have to worry about is the data going to dry up. And just as we have crossed this chasm where the business is generating really strong gross profit dollar growth and EBITDA and will generate tons of cash flow. It's the same thing on the data side. We just have so much data flowing from so many directions that we've hedged that risk.
因此在過去十年,我們非常有意識地確保把資料帶進我們平台的管道高度多元化,讓我們永遠不必擔心資料會不會枯竭。而且就像我們已跨越這個門檻——業務正在產生非常強勁的毛利金額成長與 EBITDA,並且將產生大量現金流。在資料端也是同樣的情況。我們有如此多的資料從如此多的方向流入,因此我們已對這個風險做了避險。
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Kendra Webster - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thanks, Eric, and thank you all for joining our call this morning. Have a great week.
謝謝你,Eric,也謝謝各位今天早上參加我們的電話會議。祝大家本週愉快。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以斷線。