Tempus AI Inc (TEM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. My name is Tina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Tempus AI fourth quarter 2025 fiscal results conference call.

大家好，感謝各位的耐心等待。我是Tina，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表Tempus AI歡迎各位參加2025財年第四季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn today’s call over to Liz Krutoholow, the Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）現在我很高興將今天的電話會議交給投資者關係副總裁莉茲·克魯托霍洛女士。請開始吧。

Thank you, Tina. Good afternoon and welcome to Tempus’s fourth quarter 2025 and full year 2025 conference call.

謝謝蒂娜。下午好，歡迎參加Tempus公司2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。

This afternoon, Tempus released results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release, an overview of the quarter, and our latest presentation are available on our IR website.

今天下午，Tempus 發布了截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日的季度和年度業績。新聞稿、季度概覽和我們最新的簡報均可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

Joining me today from Tempus are Eric Lefkofsky, Founder and CEO of Tempus; and James Rogers, CFO.

今天與我一同出席的有來自 Tempus 的創辦人兼執行長 Eric Lefkofsky 和財務長 James Rogers。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during this call, management may make forward‑looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of these risks, please refer to our 10‑K and other subsequent filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，管理階層可能會發表一些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。有關這些風險的討論，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K表格及其他後續文件。

During the call, we will discuss non‑GAAP financial measures which are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Definitions of these non‑GAAP financial measures, along with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our earnings release, which is available on our IR page. I would now like to turn the call over to Eric.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論非GAAP財務指標，這些指標並非依照公認會計準則編製。這些非GAAP財務指標的定義，以及與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表，均包含在我們的獲利報告中，該報告可在我們的投資者關係頁面上查閱。現在，我將把電話會議交給Eric。

Thanks, Liz.

謝謝你，莉茲。

2025 was an exceptional year for Tempus, with both of our businesses growing rapidly and performing well above expectation. Total revenue of our core business was up over 33% when you factor in the acquisition of Ambry; obviously, much higher.

2025年對Tempus來說是意義非凡的一年，我們的兩項業務均實現快速成長，業績遠超預期。若計入對Ambry的收購，我們核心業務的總收入成長超過33%；顯然，實際增幅遠不止於此。

If you look at our two main businesses, I’ll start with diagnostics. In oncology, we had unit growth of 29%, which was -- and has been accelerating throughout the year. We called out that our MRD growth rate was actually 56% quarter over quarter, which is extraordinary. Hereditary held up well with 23%-unit growth. So, all in, our diagnostic business is accelerating and performing above expectation.

如果看一下我們的兩大核心業務，我先從診斷業務說起。在腫瘤領域，我們的銷量成長了29%，而且這一成長勢頭在全年持續加速。我們特別指出，我們的微小殘留病灶（MRD）較上季成長率高達56%，非常驚人。遺傳性疾病業務也表現良好，銷售量成長了23%。總而言之，我們的診斷業務正在加速成長，業績超乎預期。

In terms of data, that business is growing even faster. It’s made up of really two product lines: our licensing business and our applications. Our licensing business, our Insights, was up 69% in the quarter when you factor in the one‑time impact of the AstraZeneca warrant, and we’re projecting roughly 40% growth this quarter. Total contract value was greater than $1.1 billion and, most importantly, it’s been rising faster than revenue over the past several quarters. Net revenue retention was 126%, which is super strong, all things considered.

就數據而言，這項業務的成長速度更快。它實際上由兩條產品線組成：我們的授權業務和應用業務。我們的授權業務，即 Insights，在本季度增長了 69%，這其中已計入阿斯特捷利康認股權證的一次性影響，我們預計本季度將增長約 40%。合約總價值超過 11 億美元，更重要的是，在過去幾季中，其成長速度一直高於營收成長速度。淨收入留存率高達 126%，考慮到所有因素，這是一個非常強勁的成績。

We guided to $1.59 billion, which is in line with our 25% long‑term growth expectations, and approximately $65 million of positive adjusted EBITDA. Our balance sheet is in great shape. Our products are resonating. Our AI advantages are continuing to take hold. So all in, we’re poised for a phenomenal 2026.

我們預計營收將達到15.9億美元，這與我們25%的長期成長預期相符，調整後EBITDA約為6,500萬美元。我們的資產負債表狀況良好。我們的產品反應熱烈。我們的人工智慧優勢正在持續顯現。總而言之，我們已做好充分準備，迎接輝煌的2026年。

With that, happy to take questions.

接下來，我很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Kallum Titchmarsh, Morgan Stanley.

（操作說明）卡勒姆·蒂奇馬什，摩根士丹利。

Yeah, thanks a lot for the question, guys. Eric, I wanted to zoom out from the financials, I’m sure that’ll be covered, and go a bit broader. The markets are a bit anxious around AI and how value is getting distributed within that ecosystem, and we’re now obviously seeing traditional AI players push into the healthcare sphere. I’m curious how you feel your position is protected on the data side.

是的，非常感謝大家的提問。艾瑞克，我想跳出財務層面（我相信財務方面的內容都會被討論到），從更廣泛的角度來談談這個問題。市場對人工智慧以及其生態系統中價值的分配方式感到有些焦慮，我們現在也明顯看到傳統的人工智慧企業正在進入醫療保健領域。我很好奇您認為貴公司在數據方面是如何保障自身利益的。

And to that point, why you expect the large pharma companies you work with, particularly with Insights, to keep coming back for more. The Q1 guide’s obviously strong, but I’m looking on that. And then finally, whether the feedback you’re receiving from these customers suggests that they’re getting better at what they do because of what you’re providing them with. Any sense of success stories and what you’re hearing on the ground would be appreciated. Thanks a lot.

說到這裡，您為什麼期望與您合作的大型製藥公司，特別是那些使用 Insights 服務的公司，能夠持續與您合作？第一季的業績指引顯然非常強勁，但我仍在關注這一點。最後，您從這些客戶收到的回饋是否表明，他們因為您提供的服務而改進了他們的工作？任何成功案例以及您在實際工作中了解到的情況都將不勝感激。非常感謝。

Yeah, I mean, I think the most interesting business models surrounding AI, in particular large language or large multimodal models, really center around access to proprietary data to train models and proprietary distribution once you have a model that generates insight. As we’ve talked about historically, Tempus is uniquely positioned in that we have both of those at scale.

是的，我的意思是，我認為圍繞著人工智慧，特別是大型語言或大型多模態模型，最有趣的商業模式實際上都圍繞著獲取專有資料來訓練模型，以及在模型能夠產生洞見之後進行專有分發。正如我們之前討論過的，Tempus 的獨特優勢在於，我們同時擁有這兩方面的大規模資源。

We have over 450 petabytes of connected multimodal data which flows from our diagnostic business, which has real‑time insights, real‑time connection to outcome and response. It is able to track patients longitudinally, rich molecular data, rich imaging data, so we have this really unique proprietary dataset that you can use to train AI to train models, and then once we generate insights or some kind of contextualization that we want to put in the hands of a doctor, because we’re connected to more than 5,000 providers, because we have more than 7,000 regularly ordering oncologists and thousands of other physicians in other areas, we can deliver these insights in real time as part of routine clinical care.

我們擁有超過 450 PB 的互聯多模態數據，這些數據源自於我們的診斷業務，能夠提供即時洞察，並與治療結果和反應進行即時關聯。它能夠對患者進行縱向追踪，並收集豐富的分子數據和影像數據。因此，我們擁有一個真正獨特的專有資料集，可用於訓練人工智慧模型。一旦我們產生洞察或某種情境化訊息，並希望將其提供給醫生，由於我們與超過 5,000 家醫療機構建立了聯繫，其中包括超過 7,000 位定期開具檢測單的腫瘤科醫生以及其他領域的數千名醫生，我們可以將這些洞察實時應用於日常臨床診療中。

So that’s what makes us unique, that if somebody wanted to replicate our data business, they’d have to go reproduce all that real‑time data, which is quite hard to do. You have to enter into contracts with providers. You have to get the data, you have to work through IT issues, you have to structure the data, you have to build technology to make the data useful. It’s an enormous lift that we’ve been on over the last 10 years.

這就是我們的獨特之處：如果有人想複製我們的數據業務，他們必須重新取得所有即時數據，這非常困難。你必須與數據提供者簽訂合同，必須獲取數據，必須解決IT問題，必須建立數據結構，必須開發技術才能使數據發揮作用。過去十年，我們一直在進行著一項艱鉅的工程。

And I think because of that, because of the work we’ve done to build the data pipes, to harmonize and structure the data, to build technology that wraps around the data, we just have a unique offering, and other people have been unable to replicate it. And if you look at the scale of our data business, I mean, a few years ago, people thought we couldn’t hit $100 million of data revenue, and we’re now 4x that and projecting to grow 40% even at this scale.

我認為正因為如此，正因為我們在建立資料管道、協調和結構化資料、建構資料相關技術方面所做的工作，我們才擁有獨一無二的產品，其他人無法複製。看看我們數據業務的規模，幾年前，人們認為我們無法達到 1 億美元的數據收入，而現在我們已經是當時的四倍，並且預計即使在這個規模下，仍將保持 40% 的成長。

We have 126% net revenue retention, which means on average our clients are ordering significantly more year after year than they ordered the year before, and all kinds of proof points. Our largest clients continue to re‑up; those contracts get extended. We’ve announced a bunch of them over the last several years.

我們的淨收入留存率高達126%，這意味著我們的客戶平均每年訂購的金額都比上一年大幅增長，而且我們有各種各樣的證據可以證明這一點。我們最大的客戶持續續約，合約也不斷延長。在過去幾年裡，我們已經宣布了其中許多續約案例。

And it’s because our data is demonstrating real value where these clients are able to use our data and our technology to be more intelligent about what assets to go forward with, refine their early‑stage discovery projects, design more intelligent Phase 2s and Phase 3s, recruit the right populations at the right time, and get their drugs approved and then the market faster. And that is why the data business is having a moment, and the growth is actually accelerating.

之所以如此，是因為我們的數據展現了真正的價值。客戶能夠利用我們的數據和技術，更明智地選擇推進哪些資產，優化早期研發項目，設計更聰明的二期和三期臨床試驗，在合適的時間招募合適的受試者，並更快地獲得藥物批准，最終推向市場。正因如此，數據業務正迎來蓬勃發展的時期，而且成長速度還在不斷加快。

Subbu Nambi, Guggenheim.

蘇布南比，古根漢美術館。

Hey guys, thank you for taking my question. Earlier in 1Q we launched Paige Predict, given we previously discussed that you don’t expect this to contribute meaningfully to revenue this year, can you discuss the strategic value of the added capability when samples are QNS? How often is this case with xT and xR? And a quick one for James. James, ASPs are expected to reach over $2,200 in the coming years, but what are you expecting in '26 guidance?

大家好，感謝你們回答我的問題。第一季初我們推出了 Paige Predict，鑑於之前我們討論過你們預計它今年不會對營收做出顯著貢獻，能否談談當樣品質量為 QNS 時，這項新增功能的戰略價值？ xT 和 xR 出現這種情況的頻率如何？另外，還有一個問題想問 James。 James，預計未來幾年平均售價將超過 2,200 美元，那麼你對 2026 年的業績預期是什麼？

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Yeah, I’ll start with Paige Predict. I’d encourage you to read the letter; we try to spell some of this out in the letter we published. We’ve long talked about how there’s enormous benefits to the contextualization of these diagnostics and the technology we wrap around them.

是的，我先從 Paige Predict 開始。我建議您閱讀這封信；我們在已發布的信中嘗試詳細闡述了其中的一些內容。我們長期以來一直在討論，將這些診斷結果及其相關技術與實際情況相結合，會帶來巨大的益處。

And it’s not just about having the next version of an assay or running a study that produces some kind of wet lab improvement. If you look at our growth and the fact that our growth is this strong at this scale, it’s in large part driven by the fact that we have a technology advantage that makes physicians want to order our products because they get greater insights from those products.

這不僅意味著擁有下一代檢測方法或進行一項能帶來某種濕實驗室改進的研究。如果你看看我們的成長，以及我們如此強勁的成長規模，你會發現這在很大程度上得益於我們的技術優勢，這種優勢促使醫生們訂購我們的產品，因為他們能從中獲得更深刻的見解。

And those insights, if you look at just a few that we called out, one is Paige Predict, and another is what we call our Immune Profile Score, and there are dozens of others. Paige Predict is an example where we’ve built technology that at scale allows us to digitize pathology slides and generate insights from those pathology slides by which we can predict mutations that exist that will show up when we do the next‑generation sequencing.

這些洞見，如果我們只看我們提到的幾個例子，例如 Paige Predict，另一個是我們稱為免疫譜評分（Immune Profile Score）的指標，還有數十個其他指標。 Paige Predict 就是一個例子，我們開發的技術可以大規模地將病理切片數位化，並從中產生洞見，從而預測在進行下一代定序時將出現的突變。

The benefit of having a system where you’re sequencing tons of patients and following mutations, and you’re digitizing pathology slides and tracking those, is you can begin to correlate these things. All next‑generation sequencing has some amount of error. It’s just inherent to the process of using Illumina and other sequencing companies where you don’t get 100% output when you sequence a patient.

擁有一個能夠對大量患者進行測序並追蹤突變，同時數位化病理切片並進行追蹤的系統，其優勢在於可以開始將這些資訊關聯起來。所有新一代定序都存在一定程度的誤差。這是使用Illumina和其他定序公司流程的固有特性，因為對患者進行定序時，無法獲得100%的準確結果。

Some percentage of the time, it’s a small percent, results can’t be returned to a physician. Being able to digitize the pathology slide and render insights even when sequencing fails just makes our tests a little better than somebody else. The fact that we can also render those results in hours makes us a little faster to deliver those insights.

在某些情況下（比例很小），檢測結果無法返回給醫生。即使定序失敗，我們也能將病理切片數位化並提供分析結果，這使得我們的檢測比其他公司略勝一籌。此外，我們還能在數小時內提供這些結果，以便更快地將這些資訊傳遞給醫生。

It’s the same thing if you look at our Immune Profile Score. We’re able to look at different multimodal data we generate, digitized pathology slides, transcriptomic data from RNA, DNA data, and refine what have historically been traditional biomarkers like tumor mutational burden and others. Each of these insights alone isn’t the single reason a physician would use us, but they stack up. If you look at the foundation model efforts that we’re engaged in, that’s going to accelerate that dramatically. To the extent today that we’re 1% better than somebody else because we can generate Y% more insights, you should expect that to grow over the next several years.

如果您查看我們的免疫譜評分，情況也是如此。我們能夠分析產生的各種多模態數據，包括數位化病理切片、RNA轉錄組數據、DNA數據，並改進以往的傳統生物標記物，例如腫瘤突變負荷等。雖然每項單獨的見解都不足以成為醫生選擇我們的唯一原因，但它們疊加起來卻至關重要。如果您關注我們正在進行的基礎模型研究，您會發現這將大大加速這一進程。如今，我們僅僅因為能夠產生Y%的額外見解而比其他公司領先1%，但您可以預期，在未來幾年內，這一優勢將會顯著增長。

Then in response to the ASP question, ASPs in Q4 were around $1,640. That was up about $40 quarter over quarter. As noted in our investor deck and what was discussed at JPM, we think there’s more than $500 of upside to ASP based on the current mix.

針對平均售價（ASP）的問題，第四季的平均售價約為1,640美元，較上季上漲約40美元。正如我們在投資者報告中所述以及在摩根大通會議上討論的內容，我們認為基於目前的產品組合，平均售價還有超過500美元的上漲空間。

It’s driven by a couple of factors. One is the continued migration of xT CDx from the LDT version to the FDA‑approved version; as previously stated, we plan by the end of 2026 to be exiting with the vast majority of volume on that FDA‑approved version. That’s the biggest impact from an ASP perspective in 2026.

這主要受兩個因素驅動。一是xT CDx持續從實驗室自建（LDT）版本過渡到FDA核准版本；如前所述，我們計畫到2026年底，絕大部分銷售量將來自FDA核准版本。這將是2026年平均售價（ASP）方面最大的影響因素。

We also announced that we’ve submitted our xF, which is our liquid biopsy, to the FDA. That will be unlikely to have much of a '26 impact on ASP, but as we get to '27, it will start to contribute. Lastly, there’s still some upside from commercial payers as we chip away at those. Those three initiatives get you that upside of $500, with xT CDx being the biggest driver, and that will play out over the course of 2026.

我們也宣布，已將我們的液體活檢產品 xF 提交給 FDA。這不太可能對 2026 年的平均售價 (ASP) 產生太大影響，但到 2027 年，它將開始發揮作用。最後，隨著我們逐步爭取商業支付方的支持，仍有一些潛在利益。這三項舉措將帶來 500 美元的潛在收益，其中 xT CDx 是最大的驅動力，這將在 2026 年逐步顯現。

Ryan MacDonald, Needham & Company.

Ryan MacDonald，Needham & Company。

All right, thanks for taking my questions. My question for Eric, you talked about the foundation model and how that can exponentially help the stacking initiative and development of additional algorithms and modules over time. Can you give us an update on where things stand on the development of that foundation model?

好的，謝謝您回答我的問題。我想問Eric一個問題，您之前談到了基礎模型，以及它如何能隨著時間的推移成倍地促進堆疊式開發和更多演算法及模組的開發。能否介紹一下該基礎模型目前的開發進度？

I think you mentioned last quarter you were hoping to have the first version of the model ready in the first quarter of '26, and I’m curious if that’s launched yet, how it’s performing relative to expectations. And then for James, how are you thinking about underlying assumptions for volume growth across oncology in particular but hereditary as well in the '26 guide? Thanks.

我記得您上個季度提到過，希望在2026年第一季完成模型的第一版，我很想知道它是否已經發布，以及它的表現是否符合預期。另外，James，您在2026年的業績指引中，對腫瘤領域（尤其是遺傳領域）的業務量成長有哪些基本假設？謝謝。

Yes, I’ll start. The foundation model had a deliverable in Q1 where we had to hit certain benchmarks that AstraZeneca had established. We think we’ve hit all those benchmarks. We’ve submitted all that to AZ. They’re testing the model now, but we feel great about the model’s performance, and those efforts will go on.

是的，我先來。基礎模型在第一季有一個交付成果，我們需要達到阿斯特捷利康設定的某些基準。我們認為我們已經達到了所有這些基準。我們已經將所有資料提交給了阿斯特捷利康。他們現在正在測試模型，但我們對模型的性能非常滿意，相關工作也將繼續進行。

That was a particular cluster we set up of about a little over 1,000 H200s dedicated to that oncology foundation model. We’ve also procured a second cluster of more than 500 GB200. In terms of actual compute power, it’s greater than the first cluster. We’re running additional models internally, not just in oncology, but across all of our data because we have enormous amounts of radiology and pathology data, cardiology data, neuropsych, and so on.

我們專門搭建了一個集群，包含大約​​ 1000 多台 H200 計算單元，用於運行腫瘤學基礎模型。我們也購置了第二個集群，包含超過 500 台 GB200 運算單元。就實際運算能力而言，它比第一個叢集更強大。我們內部正在運行其他模型，不僅限於腫瘤學，而是涵蓋我們所有的數據，因為我們擁有大量的放射學和病理學數據、心臟病學數據、神經心理學數據等等。

We’re incredibly long on the value these models will deliver, and we’re doubling down on those efforts. We think they’ll be catalytic to our diagnostic business as we keep dropping insights into our tests that make our tests smarter and better than others. That should be an accelerant to growth. We also intend to propagate these insights throughout our data business so that our clients get more value.

我們非常看好這些模型將帶來的價值，並將加倍投入其中。我們相信，隨著我們不斷將新的洞見融入測試中，使我們的測試比其他測試更聰明、更有高效，這些模型將成為我們診斷業務的催化劑。這將加速我們的成長。我們也計劃將這些洞見推廣到我們整個數據業務中，從而為客戶創造更多價值。

In terms of underlying volume assumptions in diagnostics, oncology, as Eric mentioned, had 29% growth in Q4. The first quarter is off to a good start, and we’re not seeing that pace slow down. On the hereditary side, volume growth was 23% in Q4. As we’ve talked about previously and highlighted in the letter, we anticipate that continuing to moderate as we lap some of the share gains.

就診斷業務的潛在銷售預期而言，正如艾瑞克所提到的，腫瘤科在第四季度實現了29%的成長。第一季開局良好，而且我們預計這一增長勢頭不會放緩。遺傳性疾病方面，第四季銷售成長了23%。正如我們之前討論過並在信中強調的那樣，我們預計隨著市場份額的成長逐漸回落，這一增速將繼續放緩。

There will likely be some lumpiness in hereditary growth rates in 2026, and in the letter we called out this high‑teens, longer‑term growth rate. It might be a little lower in Q1 and then pick up throughout the year. There’ll probably be some lumpiness, but we think high‑teens is achievable. Oncology, we feel really strong about where that business is, and on hereditary, we anticipated some slowdown given the lapping of share gains.

2026年遺傳業務的成長率可能會出現一些波動，我們在信中強調了10%以上的長期成長率。第一季可能會略低，然後全年逐步回升。雖然可能會有一些波動，但我們認為10%以上的成長率是可以實現的。腫瘤業務方面，我們對該業務的未來發展非常有信心；至於遺傳業務，鑑於市場份額增長的回落，我們預計增速將有所放緩。

Mark Massaro, BTIG.

馬克·馬薩羅，BTIG。

Hey guys, congrats on a strong year and thanks for taking my question.

各位好，祝賀你們度過了碩果累累的一年，感謝你們回答我的問題。

I think in your letter you talk about MRD volumes around 4,700 tests in the quarter, and I think you referenced that level could have been 20 times higher if the entire sales force had been selling it. Am I understanding it correctly that approximately 5% of your sales force was selling MRD in Q4, and is the right way to interpret this that if everyone sold it, it could be 20x higher in Q4, or is the 20x higher more of an aspirational longer‑term outlook?

我認為您在信中提到，第四季度MRD的檢測量約為4700份，並且您提到如果所有銷售人員都參與銷售，這個數字可能會高出20倍。我的理解是否正確，您第四季大約只有5%的銷售人員在銷售MRD？如果是這樣理解，是否意味著如果每個人都參與銷售，第四季的偵測量會高出20倍？或者說，這20倍的成長更多的是長期的預期目標？

Yeah, it’s a hypothetical, so it’s impossible to say what could have happened in Q1. We were simply highlighting the unbelievable strength of our MRD offering, the main vector being we ran 4,700 tests. It’s 56% quarter over quarter, not year over year, and we are highly constraining this effort.

是的，這只是個假設，所以無法斷言第一季究竟發生了什麼事。我們只是想強調我們市場研究開發（MRD）產品的強大實力，主要體現在我們進行了4700次測試。這是環比增長56%，而非同比，我們已經嚴格控制了這項工作。

Yes, we have a very small percentage of our cumulative sales force currently selling MRD, and if we were to let everyone sell it and completely unblock it, it could be 20 times higher. Whether it would be, you only know when you unblock it, but our point is the growth is amazingly strong with a highly constrained sales effort. We will eventually unblock that sales effort. It’s a function of reimbursement and the appropriate timing, but we intend to, over time, gate this and be in market fully.

是的，目前我們累計銷售團隊中只有極小一部分人在銷售MRD產品。如果我們允許所有人銷售，並完全開放市場，這個比例可能會增加20倍。至於是否真的能達到這個水平，只有在開放市場後才能知道。但我們想強調的是，在銷售資源高度受限的情況下，MRD的成長動能依然非常強勁。我們最終會開放市場。這取決於報銷政策和適當的時機，但我們計劃逐步完善市場機制，最終全面進入市場。

It took other companies that have strong reimbursement -- like, for example, Natera, quite some time to establish coverage broadly enough that this made financial sense. We’re fortunate that we can gate this in an intelligent, appropriate manner and not wreak financial havoc. When you look at our diagnostic platform, broadly connected for hereditary profiling and therapy selection in both solid tumor profiling and liquid biopsy, when you look at the number of EHR connections and integrations we have and the number of feet we have on the street deeply embedded in workflows across a large percentage of the U.S. oncology market, I would suspect when we ungate this, we will become a very large MRD supplier.

其他一些擁有強大報銷能力的公司——例如Natera——花了相當長的時間才建立起足夠廣泛的覆蓋範圍，使其在財務上可行。我們很幸運，能夠以明智且適當的方式進行限制，避免造成財務上的混亂。我們的診斷平台已廣泛應用於實體瘤基因分析和液體活檢的遺傳譜分析和治療選擇，我們擁有大量的電子病歷連接和集成，並且我們的人員已深入美國腫瘤市場很大一部分的工作流程中。考慮到這一點，我認為一旦我們解除限制，我們將成為一個非常大的微小殘留病灶（MRD）檢測供應商。

Kyle Mikson, Canaccord Genuity.

Kyle Mikson，Canaccord Genuity。

Hi, this is Allison Carson on the line for Kyle Mikson. Thank you for taking our questions.

您好，我是艾莉森·卡森，現在由我代表凱爾·米克森連線。感謝您接受我們的提問。

Taking a step back in oncology, could you provide more clarity on your tests? We touched on ASP and volume dynamics, but could you walk through the main growth drivers for xT, xR, xF, xH, and xE in 2026 and beyond?

回到腫瘤學領域，您能否更詳細地解釋一下您的檢測方法？我們談到了平均售價和銷量動態，但您能否詳細介紹一下 xT、xR、xF、xH 和 xE 在 2026 年及以後的主要成長驅動因素？

Thank you.

謝謝。

You mean, I don’t even know how to answer that question. It’s a broad question, but in the letter, we call out our main platform advantage that has been fueling our growth: we contextualize diagnostics, we’re marrying clinical data with molecular data, and we have a comprehensive profile.

你的意思是，我甚至不知道該如何回答這個問題。這是一個很廣泛的問題，但在信中，我們重點闡述了推動我們成長的主要平台優勢：我們將診斷置於具體的背景中，將臨床數據與分子數據相結合，並且我們擁有全面的分析數據。

The insights we can generate by virtue of that advantage exist in xT, which is our DNA profiling; in xR, which is our RNA profiling; in xF, which are liquid biopsies; in xH, which is our heme offering. We have a whole‑genome heme offering that goes live this year. And in xE, which is our whole‑exome offering.

憑藉這一優勢，我們可以在以下服務中獲得洞見：xT（DNA圖譜分析）、xR（RNA圖譜分析）、xF（液體活檢）、xH（血紅素分析）。我們今年將推出全基因組血紅素分析服務。此外，還有xE（全外顯子組分析）。

It’s across our entire platform. It’s not as if we’ve got one driver for DNA and another driver for RNA. Our core technology advantage drives the growth of all five of those assays.

它貫穿我們整個平台。並非我們針對DNA和RNA分別設定了不同的驅動因素。我們的核心技術優勢推動了所有五種檢測方法的成長。

The other thing I would add is obviously.

我還要補充一點，這顯而易見。

The market itself is also growing, and among our peers everyone is experiencing healthy growth. Sequencing is becoming more prevalent among our ordering physicians and ultimately patients, and as Eric noted, that data advantage is what allows us to capture additional market share.

市場本身也在成長，我們的同業也都實現了穩健成長。基因定序在我們的開單醫生和最終患者中越來越普及，正如艾瑞克所指出的那樣，正是這種數據優勢使我們能夠獲得更多的市場份額。

Yeah, with us in solid tumor growing, it looks at this point faster than others.

是的，就我們所知的實體腫瘤而言，它目前的生長速度似乎比其他腫瘤更快。

Casey Woodring, J.P. Morgan.

Casey Woodring，摩根大通。

Great. Thank you for taking my questions.

太好了。謝謝您回答我的問題。

Can you walk us through what the guide embeds for data and services revenue in 2026? You pointed to $350 million of current TCV being tied to '26, so can you talk about the visibility into bookings to get to that guide and the timing around that? And as a follow‑up, can you split up the guide of the 40% growth you’re assuming in data in 1Q. How that shakes out across Insights and trials and any contribution embedded from the current foundation model with Pathos and AstraZeneca?

能否詳細介紹一下該指南對2026年數據和服務收入的具體預測？您提到目前3.5億美元的總合約價值（TCV）與2026年相關，那麼能否談談如何透過預訂資料來預測該指南的實施情況以及相關的時間安排？另外，能否進一步解釋您預測的第一季數據業務將成長40%？這部分成長將如何分配到洞察和試驗業務？以及Pathos和阿斯特捷利康現有基礎模式的貢獻又將如何反映？

Thank you.

謝謝。

As we called out during the JPM conference, bookings have been so strong that we start the year with greater visibility into the 2026 revenue build than we’ve ever had. It’s normal for us to generate about $100 million of revenue within a given year from bookings in the year, meaning somebody wanted data and we delivered it within the year.

正如我們在摩根大通會議上所指出的，預訂量非常強勁，因此我們比以往任何時候都更清晰地了解2026年的營收成長情況。通常情況下，我們每年都能透過預訂獲得約1億美元的收入，這意味著有人需要數據，而我們也在一年內提供了這些數據。

Given we have such a high percentage of our revenue already committed for 2026, we expect to manage the growth of the data business because it has systemic growth drivers going into 2026. That’s directly a correlation between bookings and revenue. We have greater than $1.1 billion in the tank, a bunch of that applies to 2026. We’re starting the year super strong and have crazy amounts of demand for our data products.

鑑於我們2026年的營收已有很大比例確定下來，我們預計能夠有效管理數據業務的成長，因為該業務在2026年擁有系統性的成長驅動因素。這與預訂量和收入直接相關。我們目前擁有超過11億美元的資金儲備，其中很大一部分適用於2026年。我們今年的開局非常強勁，市場對我們的數據產品需求強勁。

It feels like we are in a unique spot in that we’re pulling further away from the competition. As it relates to how the rest stacks up, the vast majority of our Data & Applications is data licensing; it represents the biggest chunk. Everything else is relatively small but adds up to the other piece, our clinical trial matching business TIME, our care gap product called NEXT, and a few ancillary products connected to that.

我們感覺自己處於一個獨特的地位，因為我們正逐漸拉開與競爭對手的距離。就其他業務而言，我們資料和應用業務的絕大部分是資料許可，這部分佔比最大。其他業務規模相對較小，但加起來也構成了我們業務的另一部分，包括臨床試驗匹配業務TIME、名為NEXT的醫療缺口解決方案產品以及一些相關的輔助產品。

Doug Schenkel, Wolfe Research.

道格‧申克爾，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, thank you for the question.

您好，感謝您的提問。

You delivered high clinical oncology volume growth exiting 2025. How should we think about the durability of that volume growth into this year and next, and how should we think about liquid versus tissue CGP growth throughout this year? Any color you can share on repeat testing with xF, and should we continue to think about xF being about 25% of total clinical oncology volume going forward?

你們在2025年後實現了臨床腫瘤業務量的高速成長。我們該如何看待這種業務量成長在今年和明年的持續性？我們又該如何看待今年液體和組織腫瘤檢測業務量的成長？關於xF的重複檢測，您能否分享一些資訊？我們是否應該繼續認為xF在未來將佔臨床腫瘤業務總量的25%左右？

I’ll start and then Eric can chime in. In terms of the 29% growth and how that stacks up we’re off to a good start in the first quarter and we don’t see a massive slowdown in oncology growth rates. At larger scale it’s tough to continue growing at the same rate but we’re off to a good start. Outside of MRD growing dramatically faster than the rest of the portfolio we see strong growth across both xT and xF.

我先來，然後艾瑞克可以補充。關於29%的成長率及其意義，我們第一季開局良好，腫瘤業務的成長速度並未大幅放緩。從更大規模來看，要維持同樣的成長速度並非易事，但我們目前已經取得了不錯的開端。除了MRD的成長速度遠超其他產品組合之外，xT和xF業務也都實現了強勁成長。

xF may be growing slightly faster than solid but there isn’t a dramatic variation there and that’s been the trend for quite some time. We don’t see a lot of variation in the product mix in '26.

xF 的成長速度可能略高於實心，但兩者之間並沒有顯著差異，而且這種趨勢已經持續了相當長一段時間。我們預計 2026 年的產品組合不會有太大變化。

Yeah, I’ll just add to that. Like our guide implies 25% growth year over year. We’ve called out that our hereditary business is growing slower. It’s for the year we think high‑10s mid to high‑10s are in that range. And we have a few other businesses that we historically have called out are also not growing.

是的，我再補充一點。就像我們的指南暗示的同比增長率為25%。我們已經指出，我們的傳統業務成長速度較慢。我們認為今年的成長率在10%到10%之間。此外，我們還有一些其他業務，我們之前也指出它們沒有成長。

Like for example we’ve deemphasized, we have a little relatively small but maybe $20 million CRO business that we don’t spend time on, things of that nature. So, you have a little bit of revenue or indicate with Ambry a decent amount of revenue that’s growing significantly less than 25% which means that our data business and our core oncology diagnostic business are growing 30%-plus, right? And just as we told the world we expected to grow at 30% or so last year in our core business and ended up growing at 33%. I suspect something similar this year, right?

例如，我們已經降低了對一項規模相對較小（可能只有2000萬美元）的CRO業務的重視程度，我們並沒有投入太多時間在這上面，諸如此類。所以，你們的收入，或像Ambry一樣，有相當可觀的收入，但成長率遠低於25%，這意味著我們的數據業務和核心腫瘤診斷業務的成長率超過了30%，對嗎？正如我們去年向外界預測核心業務成長率在30%左右一樣，最終實際成長率達到了33%。我預計今年的情況也類似，對嗎？

You can if you do the math we’re going to be growing in the roughly 30% range plus in those businesses. So they’re super healthy. Liquid is growing a little faster than solid. That’s been a long‑term trend for us. We don’t disclose breakdowns of each and so on and so forth but liquid is growing a little faster. Both are super healthy.

如果你算一下，你會發現我們這些業務的成長率預計在30%以上。所以它們都非常健康。流動資產的成長速度略快於固體資產。這對我們來說一直是長期趨勢。我們不會透露具體的細分數據等等，但流動資產的成長速度確實更快一些。兩者都非常健康。

And there’s just no one driver of the growth. It’s not as if repetitive testing or concurrent testing or this kind of testing or that kind of testing are having an outsized impact. We’re seeing really good solid growth. We’re seeing really good liquid growth slightly better but that’s been a long‑term trend.

而且，成長並非由單一因素驅動。重複測試、平行測試或其他類型的測試並沒有產生顯著影響。我們看到的是穩健的良好成長。流動性成長也相當不錯，略好一些，但這已經是長期趨勢。

More and more people want the benefits of tumor, normal profiling. More and more people want the benefits of DNA and RNA. More and more people want our connected platform that’s intelligent. So our unit growth oncology is really strong and showing no signs of slowing down.

越來越多的人希望獲得腫瘤和正常組織分析帶來的益處。越來越多的人希望獲得DNA和RNA分析帶來的益處。越來越多的人希望使用我們智慧互聯的平台。因此，我們腫瘤科的成長勢頭非常強勁，並且沒有放緩的跡象。

Andrew Brackmann, William Blair.

安德魯·布拉克曼，威廉·布萊爾。

Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions.

各位下午好。感謝你們回答問題。

Eric, it’s been just over a year since you closed on Ambry and if we go back to when that acquisition was announced a big part of that thesis was around the data that you would be able to generate across the entire oncology testing spectrum. Can you talk about the acquisition in that lens now that it’s been a part of the company for some time, what you’re seeing in that regard, and how that’s led to growth in the data business as well.

艾瑞克，距離你完成對Ambry的收購已經一年多了。回顧當初宣布收購時，當時的核心論點之一就是你能在整個腫瘤檢測領域產生大量數據。現在Ambry已經融入公司一段時間了，你能否從這個角度談談這次收購，說說你在這方面看到了什麼，以及這些數據是如何促進數據業務成長的？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, we called out multiple reasons to acquire Ambry.

是的，我們列舉了收購 Ambry 的多個理由。

The first by far was to broaden the comprehensive nature of our testing compendium. If someone said to me why did you buy Ambry I wouldn’t say data. I would say the number one reason we bought Ambry was they had a very strong hereditary profile. More and more of our clients want a comprehensive solution. I think we’ve said this historically, I very much believe that over the long term.

首要目標是擴展我們測試體系的全面性。如果有人問我為什麼收購Ambry，我不會說是為了數據。我會說，我們收購Ambry的首要原因是他們擁有非常強大的遺傳資訊庫。越來越多的客戶需要全面的解決方案。我認為我們過去也曾說過這一點，而且我堅信從長遠來看，這一點至關重要。

When it comes to treating cancer patients it’s going to be like e‑commerce shoppers going online. I don’t go to one e‑commerce site for books and another for clothes and another for consumer electronics. I go to Amazon because they have everything I need in one place and I believe that’s going to be the case as it relates to sequencing. More and more providers want somebody who can help them manage risk, help them treat patients once they’ve been diagnosed, and help them monitor those patients post‑treatment and we want to have a broad menu. That said we’re also seeing a trend.

在癌症治療方面，這就像網購一樣。我不會去不同的電商網站買書、買衣服、買電子產品。我會去亞馬遜，因為他們那裡應有盡有。我相信在治療方案的選擇上也會如此。越來越多的醫療機構希望找到能夠幫助他們管理風險、協助確診患者治療以及在治療後進行監測的專家，我們需要提供全面的服務。此外，我們也觀察到一種趨勢。

More and more of our provider partners and certainly to the benefit of patients want to contribute de‑identified data to platforms like ours to be used to accelerate research and to accelerate drug discovery and development. This is a very big trend that I don’t see stopping.

越來越多的醫療服務提供者合作夥伴，當然也為了病人的利益，希望向我們這樣的平台貢獻去識別化數據，用於加速研究和藥物發現與開發。這是一個非常大的趨勢，而且我認為不會停止。

We still have 600,000 people a year that die of cancer. We’re not making nearly enough progress as it relates to eradicating that. I think you’re seeing a movement among institutions that are saying we need to help stop the waste, make sure these patients get better drugs and get them in the market faster. We see that as a constant movement and a benefit of the kind of data we collect and then on a de‑identified basis take to market.

每年仍有60萬人死於癌症。我們在根除癌症方面進展甚微。我認為，一些機構正在採取行動，呼籲減少浪費，確保患者能夠獲得更好的藥物，並加快藥物上市速度。我們認為這是一個持續發展的過程，也是我們收集並以匿名化方式將數據推向市場的一大優勢。

Dan Brennan, TD Cowen.

丹·布倫南，TD Cowen。

Great, thank you. Thanks (inaudible).

太好了，謝謝。謝謝（聽不清楚）。

Can't hear you.

我聽不到你說話。

Sorry about that, Eric.

抱歉啊，艾瑞克。

Just maybe one on MRD and on insights. On MRD any update on the first gen CRC assay? I know it’s sitting at MolDX any color there? And on the next gen tumor naive assay have you discussed what type of performance advantage you would expect to get out of that?

或許可以問一下關於 MRD 和 Insights 的問題。關於 MRD，第一代 CRC 檢測方法有進展嗎？我知道它目前在 MolDX，有什麼消息嗎？關於下一代腫瘤初治檢測方法，您討論過預期能從中獲得哪些效能優勢嗎？

You’re filing for two tumor types this year and then you have another two that you mentioned in the letter. What performance enhancements do you think that could offer versus the existing tumor negative landscape?

您今年提交了兩種腫瘤類型的申請，信中也提到了另外兩種。您認為與目前針對腫瘤陰性的治療方案相比，這些申請能帶來哪些表現提升？

Yeah, we’re in a back and forth with MolDX now and we didn’t call out when that gets resolved. I don’t control MolDX. It’s possible that we have reimbursement in a month and it’s possible that it takes longer. I don’t have any idea. We also didn’t call it out because it’s not that relevant to our current MRD offering which is, I don’t know, like 95% tumor‑informed. Because we’re largely in the market with a tumor‑informed product in partnership with Personalis it represents the vast majority of our current market penetration.

是的，我們目前正與MolDX公司進行協商，尚未公佈何時解決。我無法控制MolDX公司。可能一個月後就能獲得報銷，也可能需要更長時間。我對此一無所知。我們之所以沒有公開此事，是因為它與我們目前的MRD產品關係不大，我們的MRD產品大約95%是基於腫瘤資訊的。由於我們目前主要依靠與Personalis公司合作的基於腫瘤資訊的產品，因此它佔據了我們當前市場滲透率的絕大部分。

And this particular product which I do expect will be reimbursed by MolDX is not going to be a needle mover because the goalposts keep moving. What’s happening is tumor‑naive products have to keep getting better and better to really compete. In CRC, I think it’s going to be quite some time before you have a significant amount of the volume moving away from tumor‑informed to tumor‑naive. I think the naive market is either episodic or it’s for those patients where for whatever reason they can’t get tissue but tissue’s pretty pervasive in colorectal cancer and I think tumor‑informed wins the day in that subtype for a while.

我預計這款產品會獲得MolDX的報銷，但它不會帶來翻天覆地的變化，因為市場標準一直在變化。目前的情況是，腫瘤特異性藥物必須不斷改進才能真正具有競爭力。在大腸直腸癌領域，我認為在相當長的一段時間內，腫瘤特異性藥物的市佔率不會大幅下降。我認為腫瘤特異性藥物市場要么是偶發性的，要么是為那些由於某種原因無法獲得組織樣本的患者準備的。然而，組織樣本在結直腸癌中非常普遍，我認為在一段時間內，腫瘤特異性藥物仍將在該亞型中佔據主導地位。

There are other subtypes, for example lung, where tissue is more scarce where I think tumor‑naive products can do quite well. We realized that we just weren’t getting the performance off the first version of our assay. We’re running a ton of studies to collect samples, I mean a ton.

還有其他亞型，例如肺癌，這類腫瘤組織比較稀少，我認為未經腫瘤檢測的產品在這些亞型中能發揮很好的作用。我們意識到，我們第一版檢測方法的效能並不理想。我們正在進行大量的研究來收集樣本，真的非常多。

We decided to pivot and begin working on the second generation of the assay instead of burning those very precious study samples on an old version. We kind of pivoted and we were fortunate, everything we do takes into consideration this notion of a comprehensive portfolio, so we were fortunate that we had a tumor‑naive product that was doing well in the market, more than giving us more volume than we candidly want or need, and we didn’t have to overly push on the accelerator for tumor‑naive. The second version’s coming along well and I suspect at some point we’ll have a really nice asset in market.

我們決定調整方向，開始研發第二代檢測方法，而不是把寶貴的樣本浪費在舊版上。我們做出了這樣的調整，而且很幸運，我們所做的一切都考慮到了構建全面產品組合的理念，所以我們很幸運，我們有一個針對腫瘤的初始產品，它在市場上表現良好，銷量遠超我們的預期和需求，因此我們不必過度推進針對腫瘤的初始產品的研發。第二代檢測方法進展順利，我預計在某個時候，我們將擁有一個非常優秀的市場資產。

Mark Schappel, Loop Capital Markets.

馬克‧沙佩爾 (Mark Schappel)，Loop 資本市場。

Eric, the start of the year is typically when companies adjust their sales organizations and their go to market strategies. First, if you could give us an idea of whether you’ve implemented any meaningful changes to the sales this year and then as a follow‑up maybe you could sketch out what you believe are the firm’s key investment priorities for the coming year.

艾瑞克，年初通常是公司調整銷售組織和市場策略的時候。首先，您能否簡要介紹一下今年您是否對銷售方面進行了任何實質的調整？其次，您能否概述一下您認為公司來年的關鍵投資重點是什麼？

In terms of the sales force we’ve made no big moves to reorganize the sales force. We did that early 2025 and we announced the impact of that. The good news is we’re long lapping that. In terms of our priorities they remain the same to bring the benefits of technology and AI broadly to diagnostics and make sure that every decision, whether it’s a decision in clinic or a decision for research, is data‑driven. I would expect us, given that we’re growing so rapidly and our business is accelerating, to stay the course.

就銷售團隊而言，我們沒有進行任何重大重組。我們在2025年初進行了相關調整，並公佈了其影響。好消息是，我們早已超越了那個階段。就我們的優先事項而言，仍然是將技術和人工智慧的優勢廣泛應用於診斷領域，並確保每項決策，無論是臨床決策還是研究決策，都以數據為驅動。鑑於我們發展如此迅速，業務也在加速成長，我預期我們將繼續保持這一發展方向。

Bradley Bowers, Mizuho.

Bradley Bowers，瑞穗銀行。

Hey there, thanks for taking the question.

你好，謝謝你回答這個問題。

Just wanted to get into some of the ASP outlook and maybe the gross margin implication. Obviously a lot of upside here with the 2,200 to test outlook. Just wanted to hear about what the expectations should be for gross margin. It assumes a big lift. If you assume that the costs hold and do some math it kind of gets toward gross margin in the genomic side of 70%-plus. What could you say about that progression and is that one to one with ASP or are there some offsets we should be considering?

我想了解平均售價 (ASP) 的前景以及毛利率的影響。顯然，2200 例的檢測量預期帶來了很大的成長空間。我想了解大家對毛利率的預期。目前的預期是基於大幅成長的假設。假設成本保持不變，經過一些計算，毛利率似乎可以達到基因組檢測領域 70% 以上的水平。您能否談談這種成長趨勢？它與平均售價是一一對應的嗎？還是存在一些需要考慮的抵消因素？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, I think anytime ASP increases that would lead to an increase in gross margin. We’ve long taken the approach that as ASPs increase or as cost of sequencing comes down we reassess how much we increase the size of panels to generate more data. That’s great for patients and doctors and that’s something that we do on an annual basis. We’re not, given that we have these two businesses, diagnostics and data, reliant on maximizing gross profit within the diagnostics product line as some of our peers may be.

是的，我認為平均售價（ASP）的提高必然會帶來毛利率的提升。我們一直以來的做法是，隨著平均售價的提高或定序成本的下降，我們會重新評估擴大檢測範圍以產生更多數據。這對患者和醫生來說都是好事，而且我們每年都會進行這樣的評估。鑑於我們同時擁有診斷和數據這兩項業務，我們不像一些同行那樣，過度依賴診斷產品線的毛利最大化。

That said, as ASPs increase, we would anticipate seeing some increases in gross profit but always balancing to make sure that we’re bringing to the market the broadest panels possible because it has downstream implications.

也就是說，隨著平均售價的上漲，我們預計毛利會有所成長，但始終要保持平衡，以確保我們向市場推出盡可能廣泛的面板，因為這會對下游產生影響。

With no further questions, thank you. I will now hand the call back over to Liz for closing remarks.

沒有其他問題了，謝謝。現在我將把電話交還給莉茲，請她做總結發言。

Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to updating you again next quarter. Have a great day.

感謝各位今天參加我們的活動。我們期待下個季度再次與大家分享最新情況。祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you again for joining us today. This does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.

再次感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。