TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 TransDigm Group earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 TransDigm 集團 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jaimie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係總監傑米·斯特門 (Jaimie Stemen)。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to TransDigm's Fiscal 2024 fourth quarter earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are TransDigm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Stein; Co-Chief Operating Officer, Mike Lisman; and Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne. Also present for the call today is our Co-Chief Operating Officer, Joel Reiss.

謝謝，歡迎參加 TransDigm 的 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上出席電話會議的是 TransDigm 總裁兼執行長 Kevin Stein；聯合首席營運長邁克·利斯曼；財務長莎拉‧韋恩 (Sarah Wynne)。出席今天電話會議的還有我們的聯席營運長 Joel Reiss。

Please visit our website at transdigm.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information.

請造訪我們的網站 transdigm.com 以取得補充投影片和通話重播資訊。

Before we begin, the company would like to remind you that statements made during this call which are not historical in fact, are forward-looking statements. For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC available through the Investors section of our website or at sec.gov.

在我們開始之前，公司想提醒您，本次電話會議中所做的陳述實際上並非歷史事實，而是前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的重要因素的更多信息，請參閱公司向 SEC 提交的最新文件，可通過我們網站的投資者部分或 sec.gov 獲取。

The company would also like to advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to EBITDA, specifically EBITDA as defined, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations.

該公司還想提醒您，在電話會議期間，我們將指的是 EBITDA，特別是 EBITDA 的定義、調整後淨利潤和調整後每股收益，所有這些都是非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱收益報告中的表格和相關腳註，以了解最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標和適用的調整表。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

我現在會把電話轉給凱文。

Good morning. Thanks for calling in today. First, I'll start off with the usual quick overview of our strategy, a few comments about the quarter and discuss our fiscal '25 outlook, then Mike and Sarah will give additional color on the quarter.

早安.感謝您今天打電話來。首先，我將首先對我們的策略進行通常的快速概述，對本季度進行一些評論，並討論我們的 25 財年展望，然後 Mike 和 Sarah 將對該季度進行更多介紹。

To reiterate, we believe we are unique in the industry in both the consistency of our strategy in both good times and bad as well as our steady focus on intrinsic shareholder value creation through all phases of the aerospace cycle.

重申一下，我們相信我們在行業中是獨一無二的，無論是在順境還是逆境中，我們的策略都是一致的，而且我們在航空航天週期的各個階段都堅定地關注股東內在價值的創造。

To summarize, here are some of the reasons why we believe this. About 90% of our net sales are generated by unique proprietary products. Most of our EBITDA comes from aftermarket revenues, which generally have significantly higher margins and over any extended period have typically provided relative stability in the downturns.

總而言之，以下是我們相信這一點的一些原因。我們約 90% 的淨銷售額來自獨特的專有產品。我們的 EBITDA 大多來自售後市場收入，這些收入通常具有較高的利潤率，並且在任何較長時期內通常都能在經濟低迷時期提供相對穩定性。

We follow a consistent long-term strategy specifically. We first own and operate proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. Second, we utilize a simple, well-proven, value-based operating methodology. Third, we have a decentralized organization structure and a unique compensation system closely aligned with shareholders. Fourth, we acquire businesses that fit the strategy where we see a clear path to PE-like returns. And lastly, our capital structure and allocations are a key part of our value creation methodology.

我們特別遵循一致的長期策略。我們首先擁有並經營擁有重要售後市場內容的專有航空航太業務。其次，我們採用簡單、經過充分驗證、以價值為基礎的營運方法。第三，我們擁有去中心化的組織結構和與股東緊密結合的獨特的薪酬體系。第四，我們收購符合策略的企業，我們認為這些企業有一條清晰的路徑可以實現類似私募股權的回報。最後，我們的資本結構和配置是我們價值創造方法的關鍵部分。

Our long-standing goal is to give our shareholders private equity-like returns with the liquidity of a public market. To do this, we stay focused on both the details of value creation as well as careful allocation of our capital.

我們的長期目標是透過公開市場的流動性為股東提供類似私募股權的回報。為此，我們既關注價值創造的細節，也關注資本的謹慎配置。

As you saw from our earnings release, we closed out the year with another good quarter. We had solid operating performance in Q4 with both total revenue and EBITDA as defined margin coming in strong. For the full year, fiscal '24 revenue came in above the high end of our most recently published guidance. In our fiscal '24 EBITDA as defined margin surpassed the guidance.

正如您從我們的財報中看到的那樣，我們以另一個好的季度結束了這一年。我們第四季的營運業績穩健，總營收和 EBITDA 定義利潤率均強勁。就全年而言，24 財年收入高於我們最近發布的指導方針的上限。在我們 24 財年的 EBITDA 中，規定利潤率超過了指導值。

Commercial aerospace market trends remain favorable in the industry. The commercial aftermarket has normalized as global air traffic continues to surpass pre-pandemic levels and demand for travel persists. In the commercial OEM market, there is still much progress to be made for OEM rates and our results continue to be adversely affected in comparison to pre-pandemic productions.

商業航空航太市場趨勢對該行業仍然有利。隨著全球空中交通量繼續超過大流行前的水平並且旅行需求持續存在，商業售後市場已經正常化。在商業OEM市場，OEM率仍有很大進步，與疫情前的生產相比，我們的業績繼續受到不利影響。

Airline demand for new aircraft remains high and the OEMs are working to increase aircraft production. However, OEM aircraft production rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels as it struggles and the OEM supply chain persists and the lingering effects of the recently resolved machinists strike at Boeing likely pushes the OEM recovery further to the right.

航空公司對新飛機的需求仍然很高，原始設備製造商正在努力增加飛機產量。然而，原始設備製造商的飛機生產率仍遠低於大流行前的水平，因為它的困境和原始設備製造商供應鏈的持續存在，以及最近解決的波音機械師罷工的揮之不去的影響可能會進一步推動原始設備製造商的復甦。

In our business, during the quarter, we saw a healthy growth in our revenues for all three of our major market channels: commercial OEM; commercial aftermarket; and defense. Our EBITDA as defined margin was 52.6% in the quarter. Contributing to the strong Q4 margin is the continued strength in our commercial aftermarket, along with diligent focus on our operating strategy, which is allowing margin performance to expand across all segments.

在我們的業務中，本季我們的所有三個主要市場管道的收入都實現了健康成長：商業 OEM；商業售後市場；和防禦。本季我們的 EBITDA 定義利潤率為 52.6%。第四季利潤率的強勁得益於我們商業售後市場的持續強勁，以及我們對營運策略的不懈關注，這使得利潤率業績在所有細分市場都得到了擴展。

Additionally, we had strong operating cash flow generation in Q4 of over $570 million and ended the quarter with almost $6.3 billion of cash. We expect to steadily generate significant additional cash through 2025.

此外，我們第四季的營運現金流強勁，超過 5.7 億美元，本季結束時現金接近 63 億美元。我們預計到 2025 年將穩定產生大量額外現金。

Next, an update on our capital allocation activities and priorities. During fiscal '24, we are pleased to have allocated approximately $6.5 billion of capital in the aggregate across M&A and return of capital to our shareholders.

接下來是我們資本配置活動和優先事項的最新情況。在 24 財年期間，我們很高興在併購和股東資本回報方面總共分配了約 65 億美元的資本。

Specifically, these activities included the acquisition of the SEI Industries, CPI Electron Device business, Raptor Scientific, among others, and a special dividend of $75 per share. This dividend of $75 is our largest to date. As you know, we are continuously assessing our capital allocation options, and we are very pleased to return this capital to our shareholders.

具體來說，這些活動包括收購 SEI Industries、CPI Electron Device 業務、Raptor Scientific 等，以及每股 75 美元的特別股息。此次 75 美元的股息是我們迄今為止最大的股息。如您所知，我們正在不斷評估我們的資本配置方案，我們非常高興將這些資本回饋給我們的股東。

Regarding the current M&A activities and pipeline, we continue to actively look for M&A opportunities that fit our model. As we look out over the time horizon, we continue to see an expanding pipeline of potential M&A targets as we demonstrated this year, and we do not see this environment slowing in the near term. As usual, the potential targets are mostly in the small and midsize range. I cannot predict or comment on possible closings, but we remain confident that there is a long runway for acquisitions that fit our portfolio.

關於目前的併購活動和管道，我們繼續積極尋找適合我們模式的併購機會。展望未來，我們繼續看到潛在併購目標不斷擴大，正如我們今年所展示的那樣，而且我們認為這種環境在短期內不會放緩。與往常一樣，潛在目標主要集中在中小型企業。我無法預測或評論可能的關閉，但我們仍然相信，適合我們投資組合的收購還有很長的路要走。

The capital allocation priorities at TransDigm are unchanged. Our first priority is to reinvest in our businesses; second, do accretive disciplined M&A; and third, return capital to our shareholders via share buybacks or dividends. A fourth option paying down debt seems unlikely at this time, though we do still take this into consideration. We are continually evaluating all of our capital allocation options, but both M&A and capital markets are difficult to predict. As always, we continue to closely monitor the capital markets and remain opportunistic.

TransDigm 的資本配置優先順序維持不變。我們的首要任務是對我們的業務進行再投資；其次，進行有紀律的增值併購；第三，透過股票回購或股利向股東返還資本。目前，第四種償還債務的選擇似乎不太可能，儘管我們仍然考慮到這一點。我們不斷評估所有資本配置方案，但併購和資本市場都很難預測。一如既往，我們繼續密切關注資本市場並保持機會主義。

As mentioned earlier, we exited fiscal '24 with a sizable cash balance of almost $6.3 billion. Pro forma for the special dividend paid in October, we still have a sizable cash balance of around $2 billion. Our capital allocation actions still leave us with significant liquidity and financial flexibility to meet any likely range of capital requirements or other opportunities in the readily foreseeable future.

如前所述，我們在 24 財年結束時擁有近 63 億美元的大量現金餘額。在預計 10 月支付的特別股息後，我們仍然擁有約 20 億美元的大量現金餘額。我們的資本配置行動仍然為我們提供了巨大的流動性和財務靈活性，以滿足任何可能的資本要求範圍或在可預見的未來的其他機會。

Moving to our outlook for fiscal '25. The guidance assumes no additional acquisitions or divestitures and is based on current expectations for continued performance in our primary commercial end markets throughout fiscal '25.

轉向我們對 25 財年的展望。該指南假設沒有額外的收購或剝離，並且基於目前對整個 25 財年主要商業終端市場持續表現的預期。

Our initial guidance for fiscal '25 is as follows and can also be found on Slide 7 in the presentation. The midpoint of our fiscal '25 revenue guidance is $8.85 billion or up approximately 11%. As a reminder and consistent with past years, with roughly 10% less working days than subsequent quarters, fiscal '25 Q1 revenues, EBITDA and EBITDA margins are anticipated to be lower than the other three quarters of 2025. This revenue guidance is based on the following market channel growth rate assumptions.

我們對 25 財年的初步指引如下，也可以在簡報的投影片 7 中找到。我們 25 財年營收指引的中位數為 88.5 億美元，成長約 11%。提醒一下，與往年一致，由於工作日比後續季度減少約 10%，25 財年第一季的營收、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率預計將低於 2025 年其他三個季度。此收入指引基於以下市場通路成長率假設。

We expect commercial OEM revenue growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range which is highly dependent on the evolution of the production rates in the commercial OEM environment. Commercial aftermarket revenue growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit percentage range and defense revenue growth in the high single-digit percentage range.

我們預計商業 OEM 收入成長將在中個位數百分比範圍內，這在很大程度上取決於商業 OEM 環境中生產力的演變。商業售後市場收入成長在高個位數到低兩位數百分比範圍內，國防收入成長在高個位數百分比範圍內。

The midpoint of fiscal 2025 EBITDA as defined guidance is $4.685 billion, or up approximately 12% with an expected margin of around 52.9%. This guidance includes about an additional 70 basis points of margin dilution from recent acquisitions. We anticipate EBITDA margins will move up throughout the year, with Q1 being the lowest and sequentially lower than Q4 of our fiscal 2024.

根據既定指引，2025 財年 EBITDA 中點為 46.85 億美元，成長約 12%，預期利潤率約 52.9%。該指引包括近期收購帶來的約 70 個基點的額外利潤稀釋。我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率將全年上升，其中第一季最低，並且連續低於 2024 財年第四季。

The midpoint of adjusted EPS is anticipated to be $36.32 or up approximately 7%. Sarah will discuss in more detail shortly the factors impacting EPS along with some other fiscal '25 financial assumptions and updates. We believe we are well positioned as we enter fiscal '25. As usual, we continue to closely watch how the aerospace and capital markets continue to develop and react accordingly.

調整後每股收益的中點預計為 36.32 美元，即上漲約 7%。Sarah 很快就會更詳細地討論影響每股盈餘的因素以及其他一些 25 財年的財務假設和更新。我們相信，在進入 25 財年時，我們已處於有利位置。像往常一樣，我們繼續密切關注航空航天和資本市場如何繼續發展並做出相應反應。

Let me conclude by stating that I'm very pleased with the company's performance this year. We remain focused on our value drivers, cost structure and operational excellence. We look forward to fiscal 2025 and expect that our consistent strategy will continue to provide the value you have come to expect from us.

最後我要說的是，我對公司今年的業績感到非常滿意。我們仍然專注於我們的價值驅動因素、成本結構和卓越營運。我們期待 2025 財年，並期望我們一貫的策略將繼續提供您所期望的價值。

Now let me hand it over to Mike Lisman, our TransDigm Group Co-COO, to review our recent performance and a few other items.

現在讓我將其交給 TransDigm 集團聯席營運長 Mike Lisman，回顧一下我們最近的表現和其他一些項目。

Good morning. I'll start with our typical review of results by key market category. For the remainder of the call, I'll provide commentary on a pro forma basis compared to the prior year period in 2023 that is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods. The market discussion includes the recent acquisitions of SEI Industries, the CPI Electron Device business and Raptor Scientific in both periods.

早安.我將從我們對主要市場類別結果的典型審查開始。在電話會議的其餘部分，我將提供與 2023 年上一年相比的預估評論，假設我們在這兩個時期擁有相同的業務組合。市場討論包括最近兩個時期對 SEI Industries、CPI Electron Device 業務和 Raptor Scientific 的收購。

In the commercial market, which typically makes up close to 65% of our revenue, we will split our discussion into OEM and aftermarket. Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 13% in Q4 and 20% for full fiscal year 2024 compared with the prior year periods. Sequentially, total commercial OEM revenues contracted by 4% in Q4.

在商業市場（通常占我們收入的近 65%）中，我們將把討論分為 OEM 和售後市場。與去年同期相比，我們第四季的商業 OEM 總營收成長了約 13%，2024 年整個財年成長了 20%。隨後，第四季商業 OEM 總收入收縮了 4%。

Bookings in the quarter were solid and without too much negative impact from the Boeing strike, as this hit only the last 17 days of the quarter. We are happy to see that Boeing and the IAM have reached an agreement, but the OEM supplier landscape is now once again in a difficult position.

本季的預訂量穩定，且波音罷工並未造成太大負面影響，因為這次罷工僅發生在本季的最後 17 天。我們很高興看到波音和 IAM 達成協議，但 OEM 供應商格局現在再次陷入困境。

Prior to the strike, the challenges seen across the aerospace OEM supply set in these last few years were continuing to ease, but that recovery remains somewhat fragile. The near 8-week production line shutdown will likely exacerbate the situation. Time will tell how this plays out.

在罷工之前，過去幾年航空航太原始設備製造商供應面臨的挑戰持續緩解，但復甦仍然有些​​脆弱。近8週的生產線停工可能會加劇這種情況。時間會告訴我們結果如何。

Specific to TransDigm, since we shift to both Boeing as well as sub tiers on the affected platforms, the impact across our businesses is uneven and varied.

具體到 TransDigm，由於我們同時轉向波音以及受影響平台上的子層，因此我們各業務所受到的影響是不均勻且多種多樣的。

The commercial OEM guidance we're giving today contains what we believe is an appropriate level of risk around the MAX, 767 and 777 production build rates for the 2025 fiscal year. As most of you know, we are quite diversified across all commercial and defense platforms with the majority of our revenue and even more so EBITDA derived from the aftermarket.

我們今天提供的商業 OEM 指南包含我們認為 2025 財政年度 MAX、767 和 777 生產速度的適當風險等級。正如你們大多數人所知，我們在所有商業和國防平台上都相當多元化，我們的大部分收入，甚至 EBITDA 都來自售後市場。

Accurately predicting OEM build rates for 2025 as we sit here today is a difficult task. Now that an agreement has been reached, we expect the ramp-up back to the previously targeted monthly production rates to be significantly delayed.

今天我們坐在這裡，準確預測 2025 年 OEM 建造率是一項艱鉅的任務。既然已經達成協議，我們預計恢復到先前目標月度生產力的時間將大大推遲。

On the backside of prior strikes, most recently 2008, production rates have taken close to one year to recover to the pre-strike monthly rates. This means a lower OEM production environment in our fiscal 2025 than we expected 1 quarter ago on our last earnings call.

在先前的罷工（最近一次是 2008 年）之後，生產力花了近一年的時間才恢復到罷工前的月度水準。這意味著我們 2025 財年的 OEM 生產環境低於我們 1 季前上次財報電話會議的預期。

To prepare for this, during recent weeks, we proactively initiated cost reduction initiatives across our operating units to rightsize our structure for this lower 2025 OEM production environment. These cost reduction initiatives span furloughs, headcount reductions, timeline accelerations of productivity projects, and a range of other actions aimed at reducing expenses.

為了為此做好準備，最近幾週，我們在整個營運部門主動發起了成本削減計劃，以調整我們的結構，以適應 2025 年較低的 OEM 生產環境。這些成本削減措施涵蓋休假、裁員、生產力項目時間表加速以及一系列旨在減少開支的其他行動。

Now moving on to our Commercial Aftermarket business discussion. Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 8% in Q4 and 12% for full fiscal year 2024 compared with the prior year periods. Sequentially, total commercial aftermarket revenues were roughly flat in Q4.

現在繼續我們的商業售後市場業務討論。與去年同期相比，第四季商業售後市場總收入成長約 8%，2024 年整個財年成長 12%。因此，第四季商業售後市場總收入大致持平。

With regards to our commercial aftermarket rate of growth, the 8% year-over-year increase we saw this quarter was a bit lighter than we previously expected. As we've said many times before, commercial aftermarket can be lumpy. So we always focus on 12-month trends, not quarterly trends.

就我們的商業售後市場成長率而言，本季我們看到的 8% 的年成長略低於我們先前的預期。正如我們之前多次說過的，商業售後市場可能不穩定。因此，我們始終關注 12 個月趨勢，而不是季度趨勢。

Our commercial aftermarket is made up of four submarkets: passenger; interior; freight; and business jet. This quarter, growth seen across the four submarkets was still varied, but not quite as disconnected as in the first three quarters of this year. All four submarkets increased versus Q4 of last year. Business Jet was a bit stronger and Freight weaker than the total commercial aftermarket 8% growth rate.

我們的商業售後市場由四個子市場組成：客運；內部的;貨運;和公務機。本季度，四個子市場的成長仍然存在差異，但不像今年前三季那樣脫節。所有四個子市場均較去年第四季有所成長。與商業售後市場 8% 的成長率相比，公務機略強，貨運稍弱。

In the fourth quarter, the passenger submarket performed in line with the overall commercial aftermarket rate of growth. Q4, point of sales data from our distribution partners increased well into the double digits, approaching 20% versus Q4 of last year.

第四季度，乘用車子市場的表現與整體商業售後市場的成長率一致。第四季度，我們的經銷合作夥伴的銷售點數據大幅成長至兩位數，與去年第四季相比接近 20%。

For the full year, our passenger submarket remained the strongest of the group and was up nicely, exceeding our original expectations. In particular, within our passenger segment, operating units with higher engine content posted very solid growth in excess of those with non-engine content and again above our expectations for the year. Staying on the full year theme, freight, biz jet and interior all underperformed versus our original expectations.

全年來看，我們的客運子市場仍然是該集團中最強勁的，並且成長良好，超出了我們最初的預期。特別是，在我們的客運領域，引擎含量較高的營運單位的成長非常強勁，超過了非引擎含量的營運單位，再次超出了我們今年的預期。就全年主題而言，貨運、公務機和內裝均低於我們最初的預期。

Finally, bookings nicely exceeded sales for the full year. These factors give us confidence we will achieve the commercial aftermarket growth rate guidance, which Kevin provided for fiscal '25.

最後，預訂量遠遠超過了全年銷售量。這些因素使我們有信心實現凱文為 25 財年提供的商業售後市場成長率指引。

With regard to how commercial aftermarket revenue was likely to progress throughout fiscal 2025, two quick notes. First, Q1 is expected to be the lowest quarter of the year on a sales dollar basis, owing to the 10% fewer working days. And second, Q1 of fiscal '25 will also likely be the lowest quarter on a percentage growth basis, owing to some recent softness on bookings and timing that dictates what falls into the quarter from a shipment standpoint.

關於 2025 財年商業售後市場收入可能如何發展，有兩點簡短說明。首先，由於工作日減少 10%，預計第一季將成為全年銷售額最低的季度。其次，25 財年第一季也可能是成長率最低的季度，因為最近預訂和時間安排的疲軟從出貨的角度決定了​​該季度的情況。

Now turning to broader market dynamics and referencing the most recent IATA traffic data for September. Global revenue passenger miles have continued to surpass pre-pandemic levels since February 2024. September 2024 air traffic was about 4% above pre-pandemic.

現在轉向更廣泛的市場動態並參考 IATA 9 月的最新交通數據。自 2024 年 2 月以來，全球收入乘客里程持續超過疫情前的水平。2024 年 9 月的空中交通量比大流行前高出約 4%。

IATA currently expects traffic to reach 104% of 2019 levels in 2024 and surpassed prior year traffic by 12%. Domestic travel continues to surpass pre-pandemic levels. And the most recently reported traffic data for September, local domestic air traffic was up 9% compared 2019. Domestic air travel growth has been driven significantly by outsized growth in China, where air travel was up 16% in September compared to pre-pandemic.

IATA 目前預計 2024 年客流量將達到 2019 年水準的 104%，比去年客流量高出 12%。國內旅行繼續超過大流行前的水平。根據最新公佈的 9 月運輸數據，當地國內航空運輸量較 2019 年成長 9%。中國國內航空旅行的大幅增長在很大程度上推動了國內航空旅行的增長，與大流行前相比，9 月份航空旅行增長了 16%。

Shifting over to the US domestic air travel for September was up 8% versus 2019 levels. International traffic has generally hovered slightly above or below pre-pandemic levels for the past few months but is up nicely from where it was one year ago. And the most recently reported data for September, International, about 2% above pre-pandemic levels and this has improved from being 93% of 2019 levels one year ago.

9 月轉向美國國內航空旅行的人數比 2019 年的水準增加了 8%。過去幾個月，國際客流量總體上徘徊在略高於或低於大流行前的水平，但較一年前有很大增長。國際最新報告的 9 月數據比疫情前水準高出約 2%，較一年前 2019 年水準的 93% 有所改善。

In summary, for the commercial aftermarket as we head into 2025, things continue to shape up nicely. As we stated on prior earnings calls, now the passenger traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and with it, our volume, which is now running slightly ahead of 2019 levels, the commercial aftermarket rate of growth would moderate a bit and you see this in our guidance for 2025.

總之，隨著我們進入 2025 年，商業售後市場的情況繼續良好發展。正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上所說，現在客運量已恢復到大流行前的水平，隨之而來的是，我們的客運量目前略高於2019 年的水平，商業售後市場的增長率將略有放緩，你會看到這在我們的 2025 年指導中。

With regard to the submarkets in 2025, we expect continued growth in our passenger and interior submarkets driven by the positive trends in passenger traffic aided slightly by older aircraft continuing to fly for longer.

就 2025 年的子市場而言，我們預計客運和內陸子市場將持續成長，這主要得益於客運量的正面趨勢，以及老舊飛機繼續飛行更長時間的輕微幫助。

Business Jet is likely to continue to bounce around, but should return to growth over the full year. Freight will start to lap easier comps in our fiscal '25, so we expect stronger performance there and a return to positive growth trends. As you know, on a quarterly basis, commercial aftermarket can be lumpy, so we are sure that the path to the growth expectations I mentioned will be uneven over the course of the coming year.

公務機可能會繼續反彈，但全年應該會恢復成長。在我們的 25 財年，貨運業務將開始變得更加輕鬆，因此我們預計貨運業務將表現更強勁，並恢復正成長趨勢。如您所知，按季度計算，商業售後市場可能會不穩定，因此我們確信，我提到的成長預期的道路在來年將不平坦。

Now shifting to our Defense market, which traditionally is at or below 35% of our total revenue. The defense market revenue, which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 16% Q4 and 19% for the full fiscal year 2024 compared with the prior year periods. Q4 defense revenue growth was well distributed across our businesses and customer base.

現在轉向我們的國防市場，該市場傳統上占我們總收入的 35% 或以下。國防市場收入（包括 OEM 和售後市場收入）與去年同期相比，第四季成長約 16%，2024 年整個財年成長 19%。第四季國防收入成長在我們的業務和客戶群中分佈良好。

Additionally, we saw similar rates of growth in both the OEM and aftermarket components of our total defense market, with OEM running slightly ahead of aftermarket. Defense bookings for the full year significantly surpassed the prior year and support the 2025 guidance for high single-digit revenue growth.

此外，我們在整個國防市場的 OEM 和售後市場組件中看到了相似的成長率，其中 OEM 略領先於售後市場。全年國防預訂量大幅超過上年，支持 2025 年收入高個位數成長的指引。

Additionally, we saw growth in US government defense spend outlays during Q4. As you know, defense sales and bookings can be lumpy and forecasting them with precision on a quarterly basis is difficult. They can get bigger or smaller in size and pull left or push right on timing. So similar to my commercial aftermarket commentary, the defense growth rates could also be uneven over the individual quarters 2025.

此外，我們在第四季看到美國政府國防支出的成長。如您所知，國防銷售和預訂可能不穩定，很難按季度進行精確預測。它們的尺寸可以變大或變小，並且可以根據時間向左拉或向右推。與我的商業售後評論類似，2025 年各季度的國防成長率也可能不平衡。

Lastly, I'd like to finish by recognizing the strong efforts and accomplishments of our 51 operating unit teams during fiscal 2024. It was a good year, and we're pleased with the operating performance they delivered for our shareholders.

最後，我想對我們 51 個營運部門團隊在 2024 財年所做的巨大努力和所取得的成就表示認可。這是美好的一年，我們對他們為股東帶來的經營表現感到滿意。

As we enter into our new fiscal year, our management teams remain committed to our consistent operating strategy, servicing strong demand for our products and should our 2025 growth expectations prove too conservative with demand for our products coming in stronger than we've outlined here today, the operating unit teams will be ready to step up and meet the higher demand.

隨著我們進入新的財年，我們的管理團隊將繼續致力於我們一貫的營運策略，滿足對我們產品的強勁需求，如果我們的2025 年成長預期過於保守，對我們產品的需求將比我們今天在這裡概述的強勁，營運單位團隊將做好準備，加緊努力，滿足更高的要求。

With that, I would like to turn it over to our CFO, Sarah Wynne.

說到這裡，我想把它交給我們的財務長莎拉韋恩 (Sarah Wynne)。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to review a few additional financial matters for fiscal '24 and then also our expectations for fiscal '25. First, a few additional fiscal '24 data points on organic growth, taxes and liquidity.

謝謝麥克，大家早安。我將回顧 24 財年的一些額外財務事項，然後是我們對 25 財年的預期。首先，關於有機成長、稅收和流動性的一些額外的 24 年財政數據點。

In the fourth quarter, our organic growth rate was 12.2% and all market channels contributed to this growth, as Kevin and Mike just discussed.

正如Kevin和Mike剛才討論的那樣，第四季度我們的有機成長率為12.2%，所有市場通路都對這一成長做出了貢獻。

On taxes, our GAAP and adjusted tax rate finished the year within their expected ranges. Our fiscal '24 GAAP tax rate was 22.6% and the adjusted rate was 24%. On cash and liquidity, free cash flow, which we traditionally defined as EBITDA less cash interest payments, CapEx and cash taxes was roughly $2.3 billion for the year. Below that free cash flow line, net working capital consumed approximately $200 million, and the final net working capital ended the year roughly in line with historical levels as a percentage of sales.

在稅收方面，我們的公認會計原則和調整後的稅率在今年結束時處於預期範圍內。我們的 24 財年 GAAP 稅率為 22.6%，調整後稅率為 24%。在現金和流動性方面，自由現金流（我們傳統上將其定義為 EBITDA 減去現金利息支付、資本支出和現金稅）今年約為 23 億美元。在自由現金流線以下，淨營運資本消耗了約 2 億美元，而年底的最終淨營運資本佔銷售額的百分比大致與歷史水準一致。

As Kevin mentioned, we ended the year with approximately $6.3 billion of cash on the balance sheet or around $2 billion when pro forma for the $75 dividend that paid out on October 18. At year-end, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 4.4 times, down from the 4.6 times at the end of last quarter. Pro forma for the $75 share dividend, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 5.4 times.

正如 Kevin 所提到的，我們年底資產負債表上有大約 63 億美元的現金，以預計 10 月 18 日支付的 75 美元股息計算，現金約為 20 億美元。截至年底，我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 4.4 倍，低於上季末的 4.6 倍。預計 75 美元的股票股息，我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率是 5.4 倍。

While we don't target a specific amount of cash that we like to have on hand, we have sufficient capital available through both cash on hand as well as incremental debt capacity to support all potential M&A in the pipeline.

雖然我們不希望手頭上擁有特定數量的現金，但我們透過手頭現金和增量債務能力擁有足夠的可用資本，以支持正在進行中的所有潛在併購。

Over the course of fiscal '24, we did a fair bit of financing. We raised $5 billion of capital, $2 billion to fund the acquisition of CPI announced earlier in the year and $3 billion in support of the $4.3 billion return of cash to our shareholders in the form of a $75 dividend.

在 24 財年期間，我們進行了大量融資。我們籌集了 50 億美元資本，其中 20 億美元用於資助今年稍早宣布的 CPI 收購，30 億美元用於支持以 75 美元股息的形式向股東返還 43 億美元現金。

We continue to be comfortable operating in the five to seven net debt-EBITDA ratio range. Our go-forward strategy of capital deployment has not changed, and we continue to seek the best opportunities for providing value to our shareholders through our leverage strategy.

我們繼續在 5 到 7 的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率範圍內舒適地運作。我們未來的資本配置策略沒有改變，我們將繼續尋求透過槓桿策略為股東提供價值的最佳機會。

In addition, we refinanced various tranches of our debt stack. Our capital allocation strategy is always to both proactively and prudently manage our debt maturity stack. Our nearest time maturity is November 2027, which gives us plenty of protection at least in the short term. In addition, approximately 75% of our $25 billion gross debt balance is fixed through fiscal 2027. This is achieved through a combination of fixed rate notes, interest rate caps, swaps and collars.

此外，我們也為債務堆疊的各個部分進行了再融資。我們的資本配置策略始終是主動、審慎地管理我們的債務到期堆疊。我們最近的到期時間是 2027 年 11 月，這至少在短期內為我們提供了充足的保護。此外，到 2027 財年，我們 250 億美元的總債務餘額中約有 75% 得到固定。這是透過固定利率票據、利率上限、掉期和利率區間的組合來實現的。

Next, on the fiscal '25 expectations, I'm going to give some more details on the financial assumptions around interest expense, taxes and share count. Special note that all of my comments and data here include the payment of the $75 dividend in fiscal 2025. Net interest expense is expected to be about $1.54 billion in fiscal '25, and this equates to a weighted average interest rate of approximately 6.1%. This estimate assumes an average SOFR rate of 4.4% for the full year.

接下來，關於 25 財年的預期，我將提供有關利息支出、稅收和股票數量的財務假設的更多細節。特別注意的是，我在這裡的所有評論和數據都包括 2025 財年支付的 75 美元股息。25 財年的淨利息支出預計約為 15.4 億美元，相當於加權平均利率約為 6.1%。該估計假設全年平均 SOFR 率為 4.4%。

On taxes, our fiscal 2025 GAAP cash and adjusted tax rates are all anticipated to be in the range of 22% to 24%. On the share count, we expect our weighted average shares outstanding to be 58.4 million shares in fiscal '25.

在稅收方面，我們 2025 財年的 GAAP 現金和調整後稅率預計都在 22% 至 24% 的範圍內。在股票數量方面，我們預期 25 財年的加權平均已發行股票為 5,840 萬股。

With regards to liquidity and leverage for fiscal '25, as we would traditionally define, our free cash flow from operations at TransDigm, which again is EBITDA as defined less cash interest payments, CapEx and cash taxes, we estimate this metric to be around $2.3 billion.

關於25 財年的流動性和槓桿率，正如我們傳統上定義的那樣，我們來自TransDigm 營運的自由現金流，這也是定義為EBITDA 減去現金利息支付、資本支出和現金稅，我們估計該指標約為2.3 美元十億。

After paying out for the $75 per share dividend and assuming no additional acquisitions or capital market transactions, we would end the year with around $4 billion of cash on the balance sheet, which would imply a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio close to 4 times at the end of fiscal '25.

在支付每股 75 美元的股息並假設沒有額外的收購或資本市場交易後，我們的資產負債表上將在年底擁有約 40 億美元的現金，這意味著淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率接近 4 倍25 財年末。

And as a reminder, there's been no change in our approach to how we think about capital allocation or average with our typical target in the 5 to 7 net debt ratio range. We will continue to watch this ratio along with the cash interest coverage ratio of EBITDA to interest expense as we actively pursue options of maximizing value to our shareholders through our capital allocation strategy.

提醒一下，我們對資本配置或平均資本配置的看法沒有改變，我們的典型目標是在 5 到 7 的淨負債比率範圍內。我們將繼續關注這一比率以及 EBITDA 與利息支出的現金利息覆蓋率，因為我們積極尋求透過資本配置策略為股東帶來最大化價值的選擇。

So on a final note on that, we think we remain in good position with adequate flexibility to pursue M&A or return cash to our shareholders by a buyback or additional dividend during the course of fiscal '25.

因此，最後一點是，我們認為我們仍然處於有利地位，具有足夠的靈活性，可以在 25 財年期間透過回購或額外股利來進行併購或向股東返還現金。

With that, I'll turn it back to the operator to kick off the Q&A.

這樣，我會將其轉回給操作員以開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Sheila Kahyaoglu，Jefferies。

So maybe, Kevin, folks are picking on the commercial aftermarket number. When we think about 8% organic growth in the quarter is pretty good, but even acceleration baked into fiscal '25. I know you mentioned you want to look at 12 months in terms of the performance.

所以，凱文，人們可能會選擇商業售後市場號碼。當我們認為本季 8% 的有機成長相當不錯時，但即使是加速也會在 25 財年實現。我知道您提到您想看看 12 個月的表現。

Can you maybe talk about the growth in each of your four markets that you expect next year? How you're thinking about passenger performance? What was it in fiscal '24? And how does it perform in '25? And why Interiors accelerates in '25?

您能否談談您預計明年四個市場的成長情況？您如何看待乘客的表現？24 財年是什麼情況？它在 25 年的表現如何？為什麼室內設計在 25 年加速發展？

Sure, Sheila, it's Mike. I will take that one. First, we feel good about the guidance we're giving this morning as we sit here. As you guys know, we've covered us for a while. This is a bottoms-up based approach op unit by op unit. As part of our annual plan process where the assumptions that feed into the commercial aftermarket growth are based on dialogue with specific customers by our 51 op unit teams. This is the same approach we've used going back a while. We feel good about it. It's produced good results, accurate results for us in the past with regard to what's coming in the next 12 months.

當然，希拉，是麥克。我會接受那個。首先，我們對今天早上坐在這裡提供的指導感到滿意。如你們所知，我們已經報道了一段時間了。這是一個逐一操作單元的自下而上的方法。作為我們年度規劃流程的一部分，其中促進商業售後市場成長的假設是基於我們 51 個營運單元團隊與特定客戶的對話。這與我們之前使用過的方法相同。我們對此感覺很好。過去，它為我們帶來了良好的結果，對於未來 12 個月的發展，我們得到了準確的結果。

So we feel good about the guidance as we look at the high single digit to low double digit for commercial aftermarket total. As we head into next year, we obviously took a bit of headwind this year from freight and biz jet, which as we mentioned in the comments, were a little bit weaker than we expected a year ago when we gave the guidance for FY24.

因此，當我們看到商業售後市場總額從高個位數到低兩位數時，我們對指導感到滿意。當我們進入明年時，我們今年顯然受到了來自貨運和公務機的一些阻力，正如我們在評論中提到的，這比我們一年前給出 2024 財年指引時的預期要弱一些。

We don't expect that to continue on a percentage basis as we head into FY25. We expect both to return to revenue growth. Passenger, which is our largest submarket within the commercial aftermarket should grow up nicely as well, together with the takeoffs and landings that are forecasted as we head into FY25.

當我們進入 2025 財年時，我們預計這種情況不會繼續以百分比計算。我們預計兩者都將恢復收入成長。客運是我們在商業售後市場中最大的子市場，隨著我們進入 2025 財年預計的起飛和降落量，客運也應該會好好成長。

So all in all, things are shaping up well. Specific to interiors, that came in a little bit short of expectations in FY24. FY25 we'll see we still have aspirations for growth there. I think we've seen a little bit of a slowdown in terms of the airlines being willing to take some aircraft out of service and do the work just because they need to be deployed out there and they can't be pulled in to do some of the interior refurbs. But we expect good growth in the interiors market as well in 2025.

總而言之，一切進展順利。具體到內飾，2024 財年的表現略低於預期。到 2025 財年，我們仍然有實現成長的願望。我認為我們已經看到航空公司願意讓一些飛機停止服務並完成這項工作的速度有所放緩，只是因為它們需要部署在那裡，而無法被拉進來做一些事情的內部翻新。但我們預計 2025 年內裝市場也會出現良好成長。

Mike, is there any way you could tell us what passenger was in '24 and how do you think about it in '25? Does it stay the same or decelerate?

麥克，您有什麼辦法可以告訴我們 24 年有哪些乘客嗎？它保持不變還是減速？

So passenger was up nicely in 2024, close to 20%, 17%, 18% sort of ballpark for the passenger segment. And then obviously, the others were below that in terms of the submarkets. It will decelerate a bit heading into next year, just coming down with the takeoffs and landings, the increase versus prior year, but still be nicely positive.

因此，2024 年客運量成長良好，客運量成長接近 20%、17%、18%。顯然，就子市場而言，其他市場都低於這一水平。進入明年，它會稍微減速，只是隨著起飛和著陸次數的下降，與去年相比有所增加，但仍然是相當積極的。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Just following up on that last set of questions. What are you assuming in your aftermarket forecast, I know you've got biz jet, freight, passenger, all that. What are you assuming just commercial airline revenue passenger miles or ASMs, flight hours, however you want to cut it? What are you assuming that grows at over the course of the next 12 months?

只是跟進最後一組問題。你對售後市場的預測有何假設？您假設商業航空公司的客運里程或 ASM 收入、飛行小時數是多少，但您想削減它？您認為未來 12 個月內的成長速度是多少？

We build the forecast that's done at the op unit level. So we don't issue a top-down needed to the op units and say, hey guys, here's what RPM growth is going to be in the coming year. Now go do your forecast based on this.

我們建構在操作單元層級完成的預測。因此，我們不會向營運部門發布所需的自上而下的信息，然後說，嘿夥計們，這就是來年的 RPM 增長情況。現在根據此進行預測。

Again, it's a bottoms-up approach, customer-by-customer, part number very detailed at the op unit levels. And again, that's produced for us a more accurate forecast going out the next 12 months. We took that same approach this year. So we don't give them a baked in set of RPM assumptions behind it.

同樣，這是一種自下而上的方法，逐個客戶，零件編號在操作單元層級非常詳細。這再次為我們提供了未來 12 個月的更準確的預測。今年我們採取了同樣的方法。所以我們不會給他們一套背後的 RPM 假設。

Okay. Got it. And wanted to dig in on the EBITDA margin forecast a little bit. So this past quarter, you did 52.6% which included a fair amount of dilution from your recent acquisitions, not just a great mix on the aftermarket side. You talked about -- you typically target around 100 bps to 150 bps a year of margin improvement.

好的。知道了。並想深入了解 EBITDA 利潤率預測。因此，上個季度，您完成了 52.6%，其中包括最近收購帶來的大量稀釋，而不僅僅是售後市場的巨大組合。您談到，您通常會將每年的利潤率提高約 100 個基點至 150 個基點。

And I would think while you're not forecasting a ton of aftermarket growth, the mix looks a bit better with relatively weak OE next year. I assume the underlying acquisition margins get a bit better. Why aren't you forecasting a bit more in the way margin expansion next year?

我認為，雖然您預計售後市場不會出現大量增長，但明年原廠相對疲軟的情況下，這種組合看起來會更好一些。我認為潛在的收購利潤率會好一些。為什麼不預測明年的利潤率會進一步擴大？

I think it has to do with acquisition dilution as we go into the new year. When you fold in a about full percentage points, maybe a little more of dilution. That gets us to our 100 basis points, 150 basis points of expansion per year that we like to target.

我認為這與進入新的一年時收購稀釋有關。當你折算整個百分點大約時，也許會稀釋一點。這使我們達到了我們希望的每年擴張 100 個基點、150 個基點的目標。

Okay. Yeah. I mean I was just taking -- you had the hit from acquisitions in this quarter, and you were 52.6% and you're forecasting about 30 bps of improvement off of that at the midpoint for next year. So that's kind of what I was getting at.

好的。是的。我的意思是，我只是認為——本季度收購受到了打擊，您的支持率為 52.6%，您預測明年的中位數將提高約 30 個基點。這就是我的意思。

Yeah, I agree. But when you -- most of the acquisitions closed at the -- closer to the end of the year. So you've got a full year of impact of that dilution in our '25 forecast or guidance.

是的，我同意。但當你——大部分收購在——接近年底時完成。因此，在我們的 25 年預測或指導中，您可以看到這種稀釋對全年的影響。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，TD·考恩。

Wanted to ask about the status of that OEM contract renegotiation renewal, which, if I recall, the terms kind of expired on the old contract at the end of this calendar year and given there was a strike and what have you. Just wondering, what happens. Does that just get pushed out? When would we expect to see final terms on the new contract? And is that baked into your forecast for the fiscal '25?

我想詢問 OEM 合約重新談判續約的情況，如果我沒記錯的話，舊合約的條款在今年年底就到期了，而且考慮到發生了罷工，你有什麼。只是想知道，會發生什麼事。難道就這樣被推出去嗎？我們預計什麼時候能看到新合約的最終條款？這是否已納入您對 25 財年的預測？

A couple of things. Correct on the timing. We're actively working it on the negotiating front. We don't comment too much on active negotiations with our customers, but it is continuing to move along and we have factored in into the guidance some of the impact of those negotiations as it comes out in the coming months as they proceed and get to a final resolution.

有幾件事。時間安排正確。我們正在談判方面積極開展工作。我們不會對與客戶的積極談判發表太多評論，但談判仍在繼續進行，我們已在指導中考慮了這些談判的一些影響，因為這些談判將在未來幾個月內進行並達成目標。決議。

And what happens if it's not done by December 31, do the old terms apply or what happens?

如果 12 月 31 日之前沒有完成會發生什麼，舊條款是否適用或會發生什麼？

Boeing is an important customer. We continue to work with them actively to resolve this on a time line in the near term.

波音公司是其重要客戶。我們將繼續積極與他們合作，在短期內按時解決這個問題。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

So M&A is an important part of the story, right? So with the new administration and maybe some changes, do you expect the M&A environment to change? Would there be maybe bigger opportunities, different opportunities for you guys going forward with that change?

所以併購是故事的重要組成部分，對嗎？那麼，隨著新政府的任期以及可能的一些變化，您預計併購環境會發生變化嗎？對你們來說，隨著這項改變，可能會有更大的機會、不同的機會嗎？

Yeah. I don't really like to speculate on those things. It's somewhat outside of my control and understanding. So I'm not anticipating it will get worse. We are very diligent in how we approach deals and disciplined in the way we analyze them. So we're not pushing any envelope here. We tend to be pretty conservative and disciplined, and I don't see that changing, and I don't see the administration impacting that. It didn't hurt us this last year we came off of what really is a record year in terms of number of transactions and the like, only behind the year of Esterline closing. So a phenomenal year, and I don't see that slowing.

是的。我其實不太喜歡猜測這些事情。這有點超出我的控制和理解範圍。所以我預計情況不會變得更糟。我們非常勤奮地處理交易，並嚴格分析交易。所以我們不會在這裡挑戰任何極限。我們往往相當保守和自律，我不認為這種情況會改變，也不認為政府會對此產生影響。去年我們在交易數量等方面確實創下了創紀錄的一年，僅落後於 Esterline 關閉的那一年，這並沒有對我們造成傷害。這是非凡的一年，而且我認為這種趨勢不會放緩。

Got it. And then maybe another one. along the same lines, if you can answer. Boeing has suggested that they're going to sell some stuff. Is there anything in that pile of stuff that might be attractive to you?

知道了。然後也許還有另一個。沿著同樣的思路，如果你能回答的話。波音公司表示他們將出售一些東西。那堆東西裡面有什麼東西可能對你有吸引力嗎？

Yeah. I don't like to speculate on public company assets and M&A. I'm aware, just like I think all of you are aware that there are some larger assets that look possibly attractive, but we'll have to see. It's pretty early on in that. But beyond that, I can't comment.

是的。我不喜歡對上市公司資產和併購進行投機。我知道，就像我認為你們所有人都知道有一些更大的資產看起來可能很有吸引力，但我們必須看看。這還為時過早。但除此之外，我無法發表評論。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Kevin, I think you mentioned that Q4 come in a little bit below some of your expectations on the aerospace aftermarket and also the bookings in the quarter hadn't perhaps been as strong as you thought, that's going to have an impact in Q1. I was wondering if you could elaborate on what might be the causes behind that?

凱文，我想您提到第四季度的表現略低於您對航空航太售後市場的一些預期，而且該季度的預訂量可能沒有您想像的那麼強勁，這將對第一季產生影響。我想知道您能否詳細說明一下這背後的原因是什麼？

It's hard to say exactly, Rob. We've anecdotally heard a little bit about airlines pulling back on inventory and those kind of things. We've not seen too much of it directly at our op units, but there could have been some of an impact there in Q4.

很難準確地說，羅布。我們聽說過一些關於航空公司削減庫存之類的事情。我們沒有直接在我們的營運部門看到太多這種影響，但第四季可能會產生一些影響。

With regard to the growth outlook as we head into next year, you look at the forecasted takeoffs and landings and schedule. We feel good about the guidance as we sit here today. But as I mentioned in my comments, we did see just timing a bit of booking softness in Q4 that will impact some of the quarterly phasing for next year, with Q1 potentially being the lowest on a percentage basis.

關於明年的成長前景，您可以查看預計的起飛和降落以及時間表。今天坐在這裡，我們對這項指導感到滿意。但正如我在評論中提到的，我們確實看到第四季度的預訂出現了一些疲軟，這將影響明年的一些季度階段，而第一季可能是百分比最低的。

But for the full year, feel really good about hitting the high single-digit to low double-digit commercial aftermarket guidance because it's just following the market. We look at what the market is doing, and we know our product positions, and we know we should generally follow that and perform well.

但對於全年而言，達到高個位數到低兩位數的商業售後市場指導感到非常高興，因為它只是跟隨市場。我們關注市場正在做什麼，我們知道我們的產品定位，我們知道我們通常應該遵循這一點並表現良好。

Right. And then, Mike, this might be for you as well. On that aftermarket guide for 2025, I know you won't give a specific number, but have you assumed normal levels of TransDigm price increases in coming to that forecast?

正確的。然後，麥克，這可能也適合你。在 2025 年售後市場指南中，我知道您不會給出具體數字，但您是否假設 TransDigm 價格上漲處於正常水平以達到該預測？

We always aim to slot price slightly ahead of inflation, and that's the same approach we're taking this year.

我們的目標始終是讓價格略高於通膨，這也是我們今年採取的方法。

Robert Spingarn, Melius Research.

羅伯特‧斯賓加恩 (Robert Spingarn)，Melius 研究中心。

This is Scott Mikus on for Rob Spingarn. Kevin, Mike, Sarah, if you end the year at four turns of net leverage to get back towards six turns by the end of the year, you need to deploy more than $7 billion of capital. Is that the right way to think about it? And is there any thoughts on what might be used for M&A versus share repos or special dividends over the next 12 months?

這是 Scott Mikus 為 Rob Spingarn 配音。凱文、麥克、莎拉，如果您在年底時淨槓桿率為四圈，並在年底前恢復到六圈，那麼您需要部署超過 70 億美元的資本。這是正確的思考方式嗎？對於未來 12 個月內哪些可能用於併購、股票回購或特別股息，您有什麼想法嗎？

I'll start on that, and then Sarah can finish it up. I think it is directionally the right way to look at it. We have plenty of dry powder for any of these M&A deals that we're looking at, including the larger things that were commented on earlier, if anything comes to pass. So I think we're in a great position.

我先開始，然後莎拉來完成。我認為從方向上來說這是正確的看法。對於我們正在考慮的任何併購交易，我們都有足夠的乾粉，包括之前評論過的更大的事情，如果有任何事情發生的話。所以我認為我們處於有利地位。

I give you the priorities of our capital, and that is, we want to invest in our businesses first. You've seen that from us historically. And then, of course, we're looking for disciplined M&A is the second thing. And then third, we look at returning that to shareholders. We have plenty of available leverage capacity here to go after anything that we see coming along in the marketplace.

我要跟大家介紹一下我們資本的優先順序，就是我們要先投資我們的企業。您已經從我們的歷史中看到了這一點。當然，我們正在尋找有紀律的併購是第二件事。第三，我們考慮將其返還給股東。我們擁有充足的可用槓桿能力來追逐市場上出現的任何事物。

Yeah. And just to confirm, you tied into the math the same way we did, so yes.

是的。只是為了確認一下，你和我們一樣融入了數學，所以是的。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

I think you mentioned that the distribution and aftermarket channel had close to 20% growth in the fourth quarter, and I guess that implies a 3% to 4% growth in your non-distribution channels. Have you ever had that kind of skew? And is distribution tending to be a lead lag or uncorrelated indicator?

我想您提到第四季度分銷和售後管道成長了近 20%，我想這意味著非分銷管道成長了 3% 到 4%。你有過這樣的歪斜嗎？分佈是否傾向於領先滯後或不相關的指標？

It's hard to say. I would generally say it's uncorrelated. These things sometimes get noisy on a quarterly basis and the POS data can disconnect from what the total commercial aftermarket posts. I think as everyone knows what goes through distribution is about -- bounces around 20% to 25% of our total commercial aftermarket.

很難說。我通常會說這是不相關的。這些東西有時會在每個季度變得嘈雜，而 POS 數據可能與整個商業售後市場發布的數據脫節。我想眾所周知，分銷的內容是——占我們整個商業售後市場的 20% 到 25% 左右。

So it's a meaty chunk, but not north of 50% of it, and we look at it as generally, probably a bit of a leading indicator because then once those sales happen from the distributors, they then need to replenish what's been sold out to the market.

所以它是一個大塊，但不超過 50%，我們一般地看待它，可能是一個領先指標，因為一旦這些銷售來自分銷商，他們就需要補充已經售罄的產品市場。

Okay. And then, Mike, I think you mentioned the expectation for prior strikes was taking a year to get back to production rates. And so just as you're looking to build up your guidance, does that mean you've assumed roughly flat Boeing output from you guys year-on-year with some price and then Airbus growth to get to the mid-single-digit growth?

好的。然後，麥克，我想你提到了先前罷工的預期需要一年才能恢復生產力。因此，正如您希望建立指導意見一樣，這是否意味著您假設波音公司的產量與去年同期基本持平，但價格有所上漲，然後空中巴士的成長將達到中個位數成長？

It's hard to say and comment on macro build rate assumptions like that because we built it up at the op unit level and they do it based on their specific dialogue with the customer, and they know what their inventory is, so they can factor all of that in.

很難對這樣的宏觀構建率假設進行說和評論，因為我們是在操作單元級別構建的，他們是根據與客戶的具體對話來做到這一點的，而且他們知道他們的庫存是什麼，所以他們可以考慮所有那個在.

When we give the OEM guidance, we aim to be conservative. And we do that obviously for reasons that I think you guys understand. If the demand should come in stronger than we anticipate, we can add in the resources we need to step up and hit the demand that keep Boeing and Airbus, both happy and get the parts they need.

當我們向 OEM 提供指導時，我們的目標是保守。我們這樣做顯然是出於我認為你們理解的原因。如果需求比我們預期的要強，我們可以增加我們需要的資源來滿足需求，讓波音和空中巴士都滿意並獲得他們需要的零件。

But I think just given the fragile state of the supply chain, as we said in the commentary and where we stand and how messy prior strikes have been to clean up, I think we're probably a bit more conservative here than others. And hopefully, we're surprised to the upside as the year evolves.

但我認為，鑑於供應鏈的脆弱狀態，正如我們在評論中所說，我們的立場以及先前的罷工清理工作有多混亂，我認為我們可能比其他人更保守。希望隨著時間的推移，我們會對這一年的成長感到驚訝。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Joel, can you give us a sense for how TransDigm's commercial aftermarket revenue breaks down between airframe and in the engine? And I'm asking because you mentioned that engine is outpacing airframe from a growth perspective this year. So just curious to get some sense for how that aftermarket revenue bifurcates between those two channels?

Joel，您能為我們介紹一下 TransDigm 的商業售後市場收入在機身和引擎之間的細分情況嗎？我問這個問題是因為您提到從今年的成長角度來看，引擎的成長速度超過了機身。那麼只是想了解這兩個管道之間的售後收入如何劃分？

As we look at it, we're generally about market weighted in terms of the OEM and spare parts spend based on how we size up the market, no different. We don't really overweight more towards the engine or the airframe, but we did see across our businesses that are more engine focused this quarter.

正如我們所看到的，我們通常會根據我們對市場的評估方式，以 OEM 和備件支出來衡量市場權重，沒有什麼不同。我們並沒有真正過度重視引擎或機身，但我們確實看到本季我們的業務更加關注引擎。

Harcos and Auxitrol is doing engine sensors and a few other folks providing pumps in and around that vicinity of the aircraft that were pockets of strength there that we're significantly above those seen on the airframe side of the business. But we're about market-weighted.

Harcos 和 Auxitrol 正在生產引擎感知器，其他一些公司則在飛機附近及其周圍提供泵，這些泵是我們的優勢所在，遠高於機身業務方面的水平。但我們是按市場加權的。

Okay. And would you expect engine to outpace airframe next year as well, just given the pent-up demand and existing backlog at the engine MRO shops?

好的。考慮到被壓抑的需求和引擎 MRO 車間現有的積壓，您是否預計明年引擎的增速也會超過機身？

Based on what we see across the MRO shops and just all the slots being filled, what you guys read about and write about, we'd probably expect something similar as we head into next year, just given the high demand there is around the engine side of MRO world right now.

根據我們在 MRO 商店中看到的情況以及所有已填滿的空缺，以及你們讀到和寫到的內容，考慮到發動機周圍的高需求，我們可能會期望明年會出現類似的情況現在是MRO 世界的一邊。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Just in terms of kind of broader supply chain health relative to the work stoppage in Seattle, have you guys acted as any buffer between kind of Boeing and your smaller tier suppliers to prevent the whipsaw from going all the way to zero? Is there any aspect of that, that might keep your own suppliers healthier?

就相對於西雅圖停工而言的更廣泛的供應鏈健康而言，你們是否在波音公司和較小的供應商之間充當了任何緩衝，以防止鋸齒狀的情況一路降至零？有沒有什麼方面可以讓您自己的供應商保持更健康？

We always size up our supply landscape, and we never want to stress the mom-and-pop shops too much. We tell our op units to go out, obviously factor that stuff in. So I suspect some of that has potentially gone on. And we'll be ready to meet the demand, as we said in the commentary, if Airbus and Boeing, the build rates come in higher than we forecasted here today, I think our op units will be ready and prepared and have the inventory to step up and hit the targets.

我們總是評估我們的供應格局，我們永遠不想給夫妻店帶來太多壓力。我們告訴我們的行動單位出去，顯然把這個因素考慮在內。所以我懷疑其中一些可能已經發生了。我們將準備好滿足需求，正如我們在評論中所說，如果空中巴士和波音的建造率高於我們今天的預測，我認為我們的營運單位將做好準備並擁有庫存挺身而出，擊中目標。

Okay. Great. And then on freight, it looks like dedicated freight flights returned to growth a couple of months ago. Give a sense for roughly how long that tend to take to translate into revenue resuming growth?

好的。偉大的。然後在貨運方面，專用貨運航班似乎在幾個月前恢復了成長。請大概了解這需要多長時間才能轉化為收入恢復成長？

It's hard to say. I think it's good to see that market stabilize first of all, because it's been coming down from the COVID peaks as we've seen, as the transition more towards belly -- back to belly cargo has continued and hopefully, as we head into next year, we see things turn the corner and transition to positive growth. That's what we expect as we rolled up the internal forecast here. Hard to put a time line on it, though, I suspect a couple of quarters in then it turns.

很難說。我認為首先看到市場穩定是一件好事，因為正如我們所看到的，市場已經從新冠肺炎疫情的峰值回落，隨著更多地向腹艙貨物的過渡——回到腹艙貨物的過渡仍在繼續，希望如此，當我們進入下一個階段時今年，我們看到事情出現轉機並轉向正增長。這就是我們在此處匯總內部預測時所期望的。不過，很難給它設定一個時間線，我懷疑幾個季度之後就會改變。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

肯‧赫伯特，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I wanted to ask Kevin or Mike on the defense side. You outperformed '24 by over 10% relative to the initial guide, and I can appreciate some initial conservatism in that guide. But as you look into -- look at '24 and then into this year, where did you really see the upside in defense? Was it sort of [op] activity in areas? Or were there things that kicked in that you really didn't expect? And where do you maybe see potential upside as we think about '25 on the defense market?

我想問防守方的凱文或麥克。相對於最初的指南，你的表現比 24 年高出 10% 以上，我可以欣賞指南中最初的一些保守主義。但當你回顧 24 年和今年，你真正看到防守的好處在哪裡？這是某種地區的[op]活動嗎？或者是否發生了一些你確實沒有預料到的事情？當我們思考 25 年國防市場時，您可能會在哪裡看到潛在的上漲空間？

We saw the strength pretty uniformly across all of our op units. A couple were a little bit stronger than others, Avtech, Armtech, just based on specific work they're doing on the defense side of their businesses. But it was really pretty uniform across the landscape, across the ranch here at TransDigm in terms of the defense growth.

我們看到所有行動單位的實力相當均勻。Avtech、Armtech 等公司比其他公司稍強一些，這只是基於他們在業務防禦方面所做的具體工作。但就防禦成長而言，TransDigm 整個牧場的情況確實非常均勻。

As you guys know, the outlays have been positive now in that kind of 8% to 12% ballpark for many quarters in a row. So I think that kind of consistent growth on that front has probably aided us and the threat landscape, I'm sure, has gone a bit of delay in terms of bringing those numbers forth and causing them to come about.

正如你們所知，現在的支出已經連續多個季度保持在 8% 到 12% 的水平。因此，我認為這方面的持續成長可能對我們有所幫助，而且我確信，威脅情況在帶來這些數字並導致它們出現方面已經有點延遲。

As we head into next year, we have really good bookings this year in FY24 on the defense side of our business. So it gives us confidence that we're going to hit that high single-digit target for next year.

進入明年，我們今年 24 財年的國防業務預訂量非常好。因此，這讓我們有信心明年將達到這個高個位數的目標。

And can you just frame up now exiting '24, the mix of defense between maybe getting even at a high level aftermarket versus OE?

您能否現在就退出'24，在高水準售後市場與原廠設備之間進行防禦組合？

It's not very different from the commercial side of our business. It tends to bounce around roughly half and half, and the two parts grew somewhat closely this year. We saw both consistent growth on both the OEM and aftermarket side, not all that different and disconnected. But it's about half and half and bounces around a bit quarter-by-quarter and year-by-year.

這與我們業務的商業方面沒有太大不同。它往往會反彈大約一半和一半，今年這兩部分的成長有些接近。我們看到 OEM 和售後市場方面都在持續成長，並沒有那麼不同和脫節。但這個比例大約是一半一半，並且逐季度和逐年略有反彈。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

I just wanted to circle back on the channel sales and distribution. And whether you could just kind of talk through what you're seeing from an inventory perspective and whether there has been any interesting movement in inventory here, maybe just the trends over the last three or four quarters and kind of what you expect going forward inventory in the channel?

我只想回顧一下通路銷售和分銷。您是否可以從庫存角度談談您所看到的情況，以及庫存是否有任何有趣的變化，也許只是過去三四個季度的趨勢以及您對未來庫存的預期在頻道裡？

So couple of things. We don't get great inventory data from the airlines. It's not for lack of trying, but you just don't get that kind of detail from them from our op units in terms of what they're holding in stock. So it's hard to say, and we've never gotten great intel on that front in terms of exactly what the airlines have.

有幾件事。我們沒有從航空公司獲得大量的庫存數據。這並不是因為缺乏嘗試，而是你無法從我們的營運單位中獲得有關他們所持有庫存的詳細資訊。所以這很難說，而且我們從未獲得過關於航空公司擁有的具體資訊。

As it pertains to the distribution, they're holding as we sit here today about where they should be in terms of months of hand on supply. It might oscillate this way or that way, a month or so at a time. But we're about where we should be. And we expect as we head into FY25, that will continue.

就分配而言，當我們今天坐在這裡時，他們的手頭供應月數應該處於什麼位置。它可能會這樣或那樣地振盪，一次大約一個月。但我們已經到了我們應該在的地方。我們預計，進入 25 財年，這種情況將會持續下去。

We always want to have the parts on hand and have our distributors have the parts on hand to supply to the end user as they need them. So we look forward to maintaining similar months on hand as we head into next year.

我們始終希望擁有現成的零件，並讓我們的經銷商擁有現成的零件，以便在最終用戶需要時供應給他們。因此，我們期待在進入明年時保持類似的月份。

Okay. Great. And then, Kevin, you mentioned in maybe your prepared remarks and some of the Q&A that you're going to remain disciplined on M&A. I'm wondering if you can just maybe do a walk through history and talk about valuation multiples and where we are today relative to where we were maybe pre-pandemic '18, '19 timeframe. I'm just kind of curious if disciplined is a relative term. Are you remaining disciplined relative to what you've always done? Or is it relative to what is currently going on in the market?

好的。偉大的。然後，凱文，您可能在準備好的演講和一些問答中提到，您將在併購方面保持紀律。我想知道你是否可以回顧一下歷史，談談估值倍數，以及我們今天相對於 18 年、19 年大流行前的時間框架的情況。我只是有點好奇「紀律」是否是一個相對術語。相對於你一直以來所做的事情，你是否仍保持自律？還是與目前市場上發生的情況有關？

It's disciplined in terms of what we target to acquire. We want businesses that are very high IP, hopefully more commercial or all commercial businesses. We've ticked these things off so many times of what we look for. That's what I mean about disciplined. Multiples are up, there's no doubt about it. We're having to pay more today than we did a few years ago.

它按照我們的目標所獲得的內容進行嚴格規定。我們想要知識產權非常高的企業，希望更多的商業或所有商業企業。我們已經在我們尋找的內容中多次勾選了這些內容。這就是我所說的遵守紀律。倍數正在上升，這是毫無疑問的。今天我們必須比幾年前付出更多。

But that just goes into the math of the acquisition. We haven't changed our targets. We still look for 20% IRR on every deal that we model before we would pull the trigger on it. So that's what I mean about the discipline. Yeah, we're paying a little more. But if something matches your criteria and you model it, you can often not worry as much about the price you have to pay as long as the business in a discipline which meets our criteria.

但這只是收購的數學問題。我們沒有改變我們的目標。在我們觸發交易之前，我們仍然會為我們建模的每筆交易尋求 20% 的 IRR。這就是我所說的紀律。是的，我們要多付一點錢。但是，如果某件事符合您的標準並且您對其進行建模，那麼您通常可以不必擔心必須支付的價格，只要該業務符合我們的標準即可。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Just maybe a quick one on CapEx. It seems like the guide implies that, that's going to be closer to 3% of sales. And maybe if you could just highlight some of the investments you're making because I think historically, you've been closer to 2%. Just curious if there's any dynamics going on there.

也許只是簡單介紹一下資本支出。該指南似乎暗示，這將接近銷售額的 3%。也許您可以強調您正在進行的一些投資，因為我認為從歷史上看，您的投資比例一直接近 2%。只是好奇那裡是否有任何動態。

Sure. Yeah. We're increasing on the CapEx guidance for next year. We've done a lot of M&A, and we want to continue to make sure that one, our new operating units have got the infrastructure productivity, but we have a lot of really good new productivity projects that we're heavily investing in.

當然。是的。我們正在增加明年的資本支出指引。我們已經進行了大量的併購，我們希望繼續確保我們的新營運單位擁有基礎設施生產力，但我們有很多非常好的新生產力項目，我們正在大力投資。

I can let Mike and Kevin elaborate on some of this, but some of the stuff -- and we've talked about this, I think, on prior calls where we're seeing projects that weren't necessarily available months ago, years ago, certainly at a price point that are now becoming available cobots and robots. So spending more time and money to invest in that and help with our productivity, one of our value drivers.

我可以讓麥克和凱文詳細闡述其中的一些內容，但有些內容——我想，我們在之前的電話會議上已經討論過這一點，我們看到的項目在幾個月前、幾年前不一定可用，當然是在現在可用的協作機器人和機器人的價格點上。因此，要花更多的時間和金錢來投資於此，並幫助提高我們的生產力，這是我們的價值驅動因素之一。

And to Sarah's point, you see that in some of the margin benefits too. That's what gets us the percentage margin point of (inaudible) plus a bit from there that Kevin mentioned is just good CapEx investments. That's the majority of the CapEx spend is good productivity projects that help us on the cost structure side.

就莎拉的觀點而言，你也可以在一些利潤收益中看到這一點。這就是我們獲得（聽不清楚）百分比利潤率的原因，再加上凱文提到的一點，這只是很好的資本支出投資。大部分資本支出都用於良好的生產力項目，可以在成本結構方面為我們提供幫助。

And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back over to Jaimie for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想把它轉回傑米做總結發言。

Thank you all for joining us today. This concludes the call. We appreciate your time, and have a good rest of your day.

感謝大家今天加入我們。通話就此結束。我們感謝您的寶貴時間，祝福您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。大家，祝你有美好的一天。