TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the third quarter 2024 TransDigm Group Inc. earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I will hand the call over to the Director of Investor Relations, Jaimie Stemen.

大家好，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 TransDigm Group Inc. 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我會將電話轉交給投資者關係總監 Jaimie Stemen。

Thank you, and welcome to TransDigm's fiscal 2024 third-quarter earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are TransDigm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Stein; Co-Chief Operating Officer, Joel Reiss; and Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne. Also present for the call today is our Co-Chief Operating Officer, Mike Lisman. Please visit our website at transdigm.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information.

謝謝，歡迎參加 TransDigm 2024 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上出席電話會議的是 TransDigm 總裁兼執行長 Kevin Stein；聯合營運長喬爾·賴斯；財務長莎拉‧韋恩 (Sarah Wynne)。出席今天電話會議的還有我們的聯合營運長 Mike Lisman。請造訪我們的網站 transdigm.com 以取得補充投影片和通話重播資訊。

Before we begin, the company would like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact, are forward-looking statements. For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC available through the Investors section of our website or at sec.gov.

在我們開始之前，公司想提醒您，本次電話會議中所做的陳述實際上並非歷史事實，而是前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的重要因素的更多信息，請參閱公司向 SEC 提交的最新文件，可通過我們網站的投資者部分或 sec.gov 獲取。

The company would also like to advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to EBITDA, specifically EBITDA as defined, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations.

該公司還想提醒您，在電話會議期間，我們將指的是 EBITDA，特別是 EBITDA 的定義、調整後淨利潤和調整後每股收益，所有這些都是非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱收益報告中的表格和相關腳註，以了解最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準和適用的調整表。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

我現在會把電話轉給凱文。

Good morning. Thanks for calling in today. First, I'll start off with the usual quick overview of our strategy, a few comments about the quarter and discuss our fiscal '24 outlook. Then Joel and Sarah will give additional color on the quarter. To reiterate, we believe we are unique in the industry in both the consistency of our strategy in both good times and bad, as well as our steady focus on intrinsic shareholder value creation through all phases of the aerospace cycle. To summarize, here are some of the reasons why we believe this.

早安.感謝您今天打電話來。首先，我將首先對我們的策略進行通常的快速概述，對本季進行一些評論，並討論我們的 24 財年展望。然後喬爾和莎拉將為該季度提供更多顏色。重申一下，我們相信我們在行業中是獨一無二的，無論是在順境還是逆境中，我們的策略都是一致的，而且我們在航空航天週期的各個階段都堅定地關注股東內在價值的創造。總而言之，以下是我們相信這一點的一些原因。

About 90% of our net sales are generated by unique proprietary products. Most of our EBITDA comes from aftermarket revenues, which generally have significantly higher margins, and over any extended period, have typically provided relative stability in the downturns. We follow a consistent long-term strategy, specifically, first, we own and operate proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. Second, we utilize a simple, well-proven, value-based operating methodology.

我們約 90% 的淨銷售額來自獨特的專有產品。我們的 EBITDA 大多來自售後市場收入，這些收入通常具有較高的利潤率，並且在任何較長時期內，通常都能在經濟低迷時期提供相對穩定性。我們遵循一致的長期策略，具體來說，首先，我們擁有並經營具有重要售後市場內容的專有航空航太業務。其次，我們採用簡單、經過充分驗證、基於價值的營運方法。

Third, we have a decentralized organizational structure and a unique compensation system closely aligned with shareholders. Fourth, we acquire businesses that fit this strategy and where we see a clear path to PE-like returns. And lastly, our capital structure and allocations are a key part of our value creation methodology.

第三，我們擁有去中心化的組織結構和與股東緊密結合的獨特的薪酬體系。第四，我們收購符合此策略的企業，我們認為這些企業有一條明確的途徑獲得類似私募股權的回報。最後，我們的資本結構和配置是我們價值創造方法的關鍵部分。

Our long-standing goal is to give our shareholders private equity-like returns with the liquidity of a public market. To do this, we stay focused on both the details of value creation as well as careful allocation of our capital. As you saw from our earnings release, we had a strong quarter. Our Q3 results ran ahead and we once more raised our guidance for the year. Commercial aerospace market trends remain favorable as the industry continues to recover and progress towards normalization.

我們的長期目標是透過公開市場的流動性為股東提供類似私募股權的回報。為此，我們既關注價值創造的細節，也關注資本的謹慎配置。正如您從我們的財報中看到的那樣，我們的季度表現強勁。我們第三季的業績領先，我們再次提高了今年的指導。隨著該行業持續復甦並走向正常化，商業航空市場趨勢仍然有利。

Robust demand for travel persists and global air traffic continues to surpass pre-pandemic levels. Airline demand for new aircraft also remains high and the OEMs are working to increase aircraft production. However, OEM aircraft production rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels. There is still much progress to be made for OEM rates and our results continue to be adversely affected in comparison to pre-pandemic production. In our business, during the quarter, we saw a healthy growth in our revenues and bookings for all three of our major market channels, commercial OEM, commercial aftermarket and defense.

強勁的旅行需求持續存在，全球航空交通繼續超過疫情前的水平。航空公司對新飛機的需求仍然很高，原始設備製造商正在努力增加飛機產量。然而，原始設備製造商的飛機生產率仍遠低於疫情前的水平。OEM 率仍有很大進步，與大流行前的生產相比，我們的業績繼續受到不利影響。在我們的業務中，本季我們的三個主要市場管道（商業 OEM、商業售後市場和國防）的收入和預訂量都實現了健康成長。

Revenues also sequentially improved in all three of these market channels. Our EBITDA as defined margin of 53.3% in the quarter. Contributing to this strong Q3 margin is the continued strength in our commercial aftermarket, along with diligent focus on our operating strategy, which is allowing margin performance to expand across all segments. Additionally, we had strong operating cash flow generation in Q3 of over $600 million and ended the quarter with almost $3.4 billion of cash. We expect to continue generating additional cash in our final quarter of fiscal 2024.

所有這三個市場管道的收入也相繼提高。本季我們的 EBITDA 定義利潤率為 53.3%。第三季強勁的利潤率得益於我們商業售後市場的持續強勁，以及對我們營運策略的不懈關注，這使得利潤率業績在所有細分市場上都得到了擴展。此外，我們第三季的營運現金流強勁，超過 6 億美元，本季結束時現金接近 34 億美元。我們預計在 2024 財年最後一個季度繼續產生額外現金。

Next, an update on our capital allocation activities and priorities. This has been a busy and exciting quarter for M&A. During the quarter, we completed the acquisitions of SEI Industries and the Electron Device Business of communications and power industries. Subsequent to the quarter closed on July 31, we closed the acquisition of Raptor Scientific. Further details of each individual acquisition can be found in the previously published press releases on TransDigm's website.

接下來是我們資本配置活動和優先事項的最新情況。對於併購來說，這是一個忙碌而令人興奮的季度。本季度，我們完成了對SEI Industries以及通訊和電力產業電子元件業務的收購。在 7 月 31 日季度結束後，我們完成了對 Raptor Scientific 的收購。有關每項收購的更多詳細信息，請參閱 TransDigm 網站之前發布的新聞稿。

In the aggregate for these three acquisitions, we have deployed over $2.2 billion of capital in the past three months. The unique product and service offerings of each acquisition exhibit the earnings stability and growth potential that are consistent with our existing portfolio of businesses. These three acquisitions fit well with our long-standing strategy, and we expect each of these businesses to meet or exceed our long-term return objectives. We expect these three acquisitions in total to contribute about $125 million to our fiscal year '24 revenue and a combined margin approaching 30%.

在過去三個月裡，我們為這三項收購案總共部署了超過 22 億美元的資金。每次收購提供的獨特產品和服務都展現了與我們現有業務組合一致的獲利穩定性和成長潛力。這三項收購非常符合我們的長期策略，我們預計這些業務中的每一項都能夠達到或超過我們的長期回報目標。我們預計這三項收購案總共將為我們 24 財年的營收貢獻約 1.25 億美元，綜合利潤率接近 30%。

Regarding the current M&A activities and pipeline, we continue to actively look for M&A opportunities that fit our model. As we look out over the time horizon, we continue to see an expanding pipeline of potential M&A targets. As we demonstrated this year, we do not see this environment slowing in the near term.

關於目前的併購活動和管道，我們繼續積極尋找適合我們模式的併購機會。展望未來，我們將繼續看到潛在併購目標不斷擴大。正如我們今年所展示的那樣，我們認為這種環境短期內不會放緩。

As usual, the potential targets are mostly in the small and midsize range, I cannot predict or comment on possible closings but remain confident that there is a long runway for acquisitions that fit our portfolio. The capital allocation priorities at TransDigm are unchanged.

像往常一樣，潛在目標大多是中小型企業，我無法預測或評論可能的收購，但仍然相信適合我們投資組合的收購還有很長的路要走。TransDigm 的資本配置優先順序維持不變。

Our first priority is to reinvest in our businesses. Second, do accretive, disciplined M&A. And third, return capital to our shareholders via share buybacks or dividends. A fourth option paying down debt seems unlikely at this time, though we do still take this into consideration. We are continually evaluating all of our capital allocation options, but both M&A and capital markets are difficult to predict. As always, we continue to closely monitor the capital markets and remain opportunistic.

我們的首要任務是對我們的業務進行再投資。其次，進行增值、有紀律的併購。第三，透過股票回購或股利向股東返還資本。目前，第四種償還債務的選擇似乎不太可能，儘管我們仍然考慮到這一點。我們不斷評估所有資本配置方案，但併購和資本市場都很難預測。一如既往，我們繼續密切關注資本市場並保持機會主義。

As mentioned earlier, we ended the quarter with a sizable cash balance of almost $3.4 billion. We have significant liquidity and financial flexibility to meet any likely range of capital requirements or other opportunities in the readily foreseeable future.

如前所述，本季末我們的現金餘額相當可觀，接近 34 億美元。我們擁有巨大的流動性和財務靈活性，可以滿足任何可能的資本要求或在可預見的未來的其他機會。

Moving to our outlook for fiscal 2024. As noted in our earnings release, we are increasing our full year '24 sales and EBITDA as defined guidance to reflect our strong third quarter results and our current expectations for the remainder of the year, as well as to include the recent acquisitions of SEI Industries, the CPI Electron Device Business and Raptor Scientific.

轉向我們對 2024 財年的展望。正如我們在財報中所指出的，我們將提高24 年全年銷售額和EBITDA 作為既定指導，以反映我們強勁的第三季度業績和我們目前對今年剩餘時間的預期，以及包括最近對SEI Industries 的收購、CPI 電子裝置業務和 Raptor Scientific。

Please note that each of these acquisitions closed recently. Our preliminary expectation for each business will be refined as necessary over the coming months. At the midpoint, sales guidance was raised $160 million, and EBITDA as defined guidance was raised $85 million.

請注意，這些收購均於近期完成。我們對每項業務的初步預期將在未來幾個月內根據需要進行調整。中期，銷售指引提高了 1.6 億美元，EBITDA 明確指導提高了 8,500 萬美元。

The guidance assumes no additional acquisitions or divestitures and is based on current expectations for continued performance in our primary commercial end markets throughout the remainder of fiscal 2024. Our current guidance for fiscal '24 is as follows and can also be found on slide 6 in the presentation.

該指引假設不會進行額外的收購或剝離，並且基於目前對我們主要商業終端市場在 2024 財年剩餘時間內持續表現的預期。我們目前對 24 財年的指導如下，也可以在簡報的第 6 投影片中找到。

The midpoint of our fiscal '24 revenue guidance is now $7.9 billion or approximately 20%. In regards to the market channel growth rate assumptions that this revenue guidance is based on, for the defense market, we are updating the full-year growth rate assumptions as a result of our strong third-quarter results and current expectations for the remainder of the year.

我們 24 財年收入指引的中位數目前為 79 億美元，約 20%。關於本收入指引所依據的市場通路成長率假設，對於國防市場，由於我們強勁的第三季業績以及目前對剩餘市場的預期，我們正在更新全年成長率假設。

For defense, we now expect revenue growth in the high-teens percentage range. This is an increase from our previous guidance of mid-teens percentage range. We are not updating the full year market channel growth rate assumptions for commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket as underlying market fundamentals have not meaningfully changed.

對於國防，我們現在預計收入成長將在高十位數百分比範圍內。這比我們之前指導的十幾歲百分比範圍有所增加。我們不會更新商業原始設備製造商和商業售後市場的全年市場通路成長率假設，因為潛在的市場基本面沒有發生有意義的變化。

Commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket revenue guidance is still based on our previously issued market channel growth rate assumptions. We expect commercial OEM revenue growth of around 20% and commercial aftermarket revenue growth in the mid-teens percentage range. The midpoint of our EBITDA as defined guidance is now $4.13 billion or up approximately 22%, with an expected margin of 52.3%.

商業OEM和商業售後市場收入指引仍然基於我們先前發布的市場通路成長率假設。我們預計商業 OEM 收入將成長約 20%，商業售後市場收入成長在 10% 左右。根據既定指引，我們的 EBITDA 中點目前為 41.3 億美元，成長約 22%，預期利潤率為 52.3%。

This guidance includes slightly under 125 basis points of margin dilution from recent acquisitions. The midpoint of our adjusted EPS is increasing primarily due to the higher EBITDA as defined guidance and is now anticipated to be $33.02, or up approximately 28% over prior year.

該指引包括近期收購帶來的略低於 125 個基點的利潤稀釋。我們調整後每股收益的中點正在增加，主要是由於既定指引中的 EBITDA 較高，目前預計為 33.02 美元，比上年增長約 28%。

Sarah will discuss in more detail shortly the factors impacting EPS, along with some other fiscal '24 financial assumptions and updates. We believe we are well positioned for the last quarter of fiscal '24. We continue to closely watch how the aerospace and capital markets continue to develop, and we will react accordingly.

Sarah 很快就會更詳細地討論影響每股盈餘的因素，以及其他一些 24 財年的財務假設和更新。我們相信，我們已為 24 財年最後一個季度做好了準備。我們將繼續密切關注航空航天和資本市場的持續發展，並做出相應反應。

Let me conclude by stating that I'm very pleased with the company's performance this quarter and throughout the recovery for the commercial aerospace industry. We remain focused on our value drivers, cost structure and operational excellence.

最後，我要指出的是，我對公司本季以及商業航空航太業整個復甦過程中的業績感到非常滿意。我們仍然專注於我們的價值驅動因素、成本結構和卓越營運。

Now let me hand it over to Joel Reiss, our TransDigm Group Co-COO, to review our recent performance and a few other items.

現在讓我將其交給 TransDigm 集團聯合營運長 Joel Reiss，回顧我們最近的表現和其他一些項目。

Thanks, Kevin, and good morning. I'll start with our typical review of results by key market category. For the remainder of the call, I'll provide commentary on a pro forma basis compared to the prior year period in 2023. That is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods.

謝謝，凱文，早安。我將從我們對主要市場類別結果的典型審查開始。在電話會議的其餘部分，我將提供與 2023 年上一年相比的預估評論。這是假設我們在這兩個時期擁有相同的業務組合。

In the commercial market, which typically makes up close to 65% of our revenue, we will split our discussion into OEM and aftermarket. Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 23% in Q3 compared with the prior year period.

在商業市場（通常占我們收入的近 65%）中，我們將把討論分為 OEM 和售後市場。第三季我們的商業 OEM 總收入與去年同期相比成長了約 23%。

Sequentially, total commercial OEM revenues grew by about 7% compared to Q2. Bookings in the quarter were healthy compared to the same prior year period, and these booking levels continue to support the commercial OEM guidance for revenue growth of around 20% for fiscal '24. OEM supply chain and labor challenges persist, but appear to be improving.

隨後，商業 OEM 總收入比第二季成長了約 7%。與去年同期相比，本季的預訂情況良好，這些預訂水準繼續支持商業 OEM 指導，使 24 財年營收成長約 20%。OEM 供應鏈和勞動力挑戰仍然存在，但似乎正在改善。

As many of you know, concerns have arisen over the past few months around the expected 737 MAX production rate ramp. Time will tell how this plays out. As we shift to both Boeing as well as their sub tiers, the impact across our businesses is somewhat varied. In general, we are seeing monthly build rates as low as 20 and as high as 42 for parts with extended lead times. Overall, we would estimate an average build rate at the end of Q3 of about 25 aircraft per month.

正如許多人所知，過去幾個月人們對 737 MAX 的預期產量提升感到擔憂。時間會告訴我們結果如何。當我們轉向波音及其子層級時，對我們業務的影響有所不同。一般來說，對於交貨時間較長的零件，我們的月建造率低至 20，高至 42。總體而言，我們預計第三季末的平均建造速度約為每月 25 架飛機。

The commercial OEM guidance we are giving today contains an appropriate level of risk around the MAX production build rate for the balance of our fiscal year. We do expect the OEM challenges will have an impact on how quickly they ramp up to their target rates. While we are not yet providing guidance for 2025, we do expect their production rate ramp-up will be slower than we had previously expected.

我們今天提供的商業 OEM 指導包含圍繞本財年剩餘時間的最大生產速度的適當風險等級。我們確實預期 OEM 挑戰將影響他們達到目標速度的速度。雖然我們尚未提供 2025 年的指導，但我們確實預期其生產力的成長將慢於我們先前的預期。

Now moving on to our commercial aftermarket business discussion. Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 11% compared with the prior year period. Sequentially, total commercial aftermarket revenues grew by about 5% compared to Q2. As a reminder, our commercial aftermarket is made up of four submarkets: passenger, interior, freight and business jet. I would like to provide a bit more color than is historically typical on our commercial aftermarket submarkets.

現在繼續我們的商業售後業務討論。商業售後市場總收入較去年同期成長約11%。隨後，商業售後市場總收入比第二季成長了約 5%。提醒一下，我們的商用售後市場由四個子市場組成：客運、內裝、貨運和公務機。我想提供比我們的商業售後市場子市場歷史上典型的更多的色彩。

Growth in our passenger submarket, which is our largest was up about 16% versus the prior year period. This submarket continues to perform exceptionally well. Year to date, as of our June quarter end, passenger submarket revenues were up 21% over the comparable prior year period. This compares favorably to the latest IATA passenger traffic data, which shows a year-over-year growth in June of 9.1%.

我們最大的客運子市場的成長率比去年同期成長了約 16%。該子市場繼續表現出色。今年迄今為止，截至 6 月季度末，客運子市場營收比去年同期成長了 21%。這與國際航空運輸協會（IATA）最新的客運量數據相比是有利的，該數據顯示 6 月同比增長 9.1%。

For fiscal Q3, our interior submarket increased roughly 8% when compared to the prior year period. This is primarily driven by repair sales as interior refurbishments have not yet returned to 2019 levels. For fiscal Q3, our business jet submarket increased roughly 10% when compared to the prior year period and reverses the lower number we saw in Q2, highlighting the lumpiness of our commercial aftermarket in any one period. Business jet does remain a watch item due to the temporary business jet flight activity.

第三財季，我們的內陸子市場與去年同期相比成長了約 8%。這主要是由維修銷售推動的，因為室內翻新尚未恢復到 2019 年的水平。在第三財季，我們的公務機子市場與去年同期相比增長了約 10%，扭轉了第二季度的較低數字，凸顯了我們的商用售後市場在任何時期的不穩定性。由於臨時的公務機飛行活動，公務機仍然是一個值得關注的項目。

These increases were partially offset by declines in our freight submarket, which was down roughly 8%. The freight decline was primarily a result of the continued return of belly capacity consistent with what we have discussed on our past few earnings calls. On a sequential basis, freight was up 7%.

這些成長被貨運子市場的下降部分抵消，貨運子市場下降了約 8%。貨運量下降主要是由於腹艙運力持續恢復所致，這與我們在過去幾次財報電話會議上討論的情況一致。運費環比上漲 7%。

For the full year, and as you saw in today's guidance, our outlook for commercial aftermarket growth in the mid-teens is unchanged. We saw a number of elements in our Q3 results that make us confident here. Mainly Q3 bookings to commercial aftermarket were strong, running in line with our expectations and outpacing sales and supporting the full-year growth outlook. Additionally, our Q3 point of sales data through our distribution partners was up roughly 25% from the same period last year.

就全年而言，正如您在今天的指導中看到的那樣，我們對商業售後市場成長的展望保持不變。我們在第三季的業績中看到了許多讓我們充滿信心的因素。主要是第三季商業售後市場的預訂量強勁，符合我們的預期，超過了銷售量，支撐了全年的成長前景。此外，我們透過分銷合作夥伴獲得的第三季銷售點數據比去年同期成長了約 25%。

Finally, a reminder, commercial aftermarket can be lumpy on a quarterly basis, both revenue and bookings. We do expect that as passenger traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the commercial aftermarket rate of growth will continue to moderate. Note that our guide for mid-teens growth across our total commercial aftermarket still incorporates a continued drag from both cargo and the business jet submarkets for the balance of the year.

最後提醒一下，商業售後市場的收入和預訂量可能會按季度波動。我們確實預計，隨著客運量恢復到疫情前的水平，商業售後市場的成長率將繼續放緩。請注意，我們對整個商業售後市場的中位數成長的指導仍然包括今年剩餘時間貨運和公務機子市場的持續拖累。

Turning to broader market dynamics and referencing the most recent IATA traffic data for June. Global revenue passenger miles have continued to surpass pre-pandemic levels since February 2024. June 2024 air traffic was up 3% above 2019 levels. IATA currently expects traffic to reach 104% of 2019 levels this year and to surpass prior year traffic by 12%.

轉向更廣泛的市場動態並參考 IATA 六月的最新交通數據。自 2024 年 2 月以來，全球收入乘客里程持續超過疫情前的水平。2024 年 6 月的空中交通量比 2019 年的水準增加了 3%。IATA 目前預計今年的客流量將達到 2019 年水準的 104%，比去年同期高出 12%。

Domestic travel also continues to surpass 2019 levels. In the most recently reported traffic data for June, global domestic air traffic was up 10% compared to pre-pandemic levels, domestic air travel growth has been driven significantly by outsized growth in China, which was up 22% in June compared to 2019. Shifting over to the US, domestic travel for June was up about 6% from 2019 air traffic levels.

國內旅遊也持續超過2019年的水準。在最新報告的 6 月交通數據中，全球國內航空交通量較疫情前水準成長了 10%，國內航空旅行的成長主要受到中國大幅成長的推動，6 月與 2019 年相比成長了 22%。再來看美國，6 月的國內旅行量比 2019 年的航空交通水準成長了約 6%。

International traffic has generally hovered slightly above or below pre-pandemic levels for the past few months. In the most recently reported data for June, international travel was just slightly below pre-pandemic levels. This is a significant improvement from the 88% of 2019 levels one year ago.

過去幾個月，國際客流量普遍徘徊在略高於或低於疫情前的水平。在最近報告的 6 月數據中，國際旅行略低於疫情前的水平。這比一年前 2019 年 88% 的水平有了顯著改善。

In summary for the commercial aftermarket, we continue to see strong growth in our passenger and interior submarkets indicative of the continuing positive trends in passenger trends. We expect our freight submarket to remain light in year-over-year comparisons based on current trends in the underlying market. Business jet remains a watch item and may continue to bounce around.

總而言之，就商業售後市場而言，我們繼續看到乘客和內裝子市場的強勁成長，這表明乘客趨勢持續呈正面趨勢。根據基礎市場的當前趨勢，我們預計我們的貨運子市場與去年同期相比將保持清淡。公務機仍然是一個值得關注的項目，並且可能會繼續反彈。

Shifting to our defense market, which traditionally is at or below 35% of our total revenue. The defense market revenue, which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 13%, compared with prior year period, and is up 20% year-to-date versus the prior year period. Q3 defense revenue growth was well distributed across our businesses and customer base. Additionally, we saw similar rates of growth in both the OEM and aftermarket components of our total defense market with aftermarket running slightly ahead of OEM.

轉向我們的國防市場，該市場傳統上占我們總收入的 35% 或以下。國防市場收入（包括 OEM 和售後市場收入）與去年同期相比增長了約 13%，今年迄今與去年同期相比增長了 20%。第三季國防收入成長在我們的業務和客戶群中分佈良好。此外，我們看到整個國防市場的 OEM 和售後市場組件的成長率相似，售後市場的運作略高於 OEM。

Defense bookings in the quarter were also strong compared to the same prior year period, supporting the revised defense revenue guidance for the full year. Additionally, we saw growth in the US government defense spending outlays during Q3. We are hopeful we will continue to see steady growth here. But as we have said many times before, defense sales and bookings can be lumpy. Forecasting them with accuracy and precision on a quarterly basis is difficult.

與去年同期相比，本季的國防預訂也很強勁，支持了修訂後的全年國防收入指引。此外，我們在第三季看到美國政府國防支出的成長。我們希望這裡能繼續穩定成長。但正如我們之前多次說過的那樣，國防銷售和預訂可能會不穩定。每季準確地預測它們是很困難的。

As Kevin mentioned earlier, we now expect our defense market revenue growth for this year to be in the high-teens percent range. This updated guidance for defense primarily reflects the stronger-than-expected Q3 defense sales as well as the good Q3 bookings.

正如凱文之前提到的，我們現在預計今年的國防市場收入成長將在百分之十左右。此次更新的國防指導主要反映了強於預期的第三季國防銷售以及良好的第三季預訂。

Next, I will provide a quick update on our recent acquisitions of SEI and the CPI Electron Device Business. The SEI and CPI Electron Device Business acquisition integrations are both progressing well under the leadership of one of our experienced Executive Vice Presidents, Patrick Murphy.

接下來，我將簡要介紹我們最近收購 SEI 和 CPI 電子裝置業務的最新情況。在我們經驗豐富的執行副總裁之一 Patrick Murphy 的領導下，SEI 和 CPI 電子裝置業務收購整合均進展順利。

We have owned SEI and the CPI Electron Device businesses for a little over two months, and we are pleased with each acquisition thus far. SEI has been bolted on to one of our existing operating units, DART Aerospace. We have split the CPI Electron Device Business into two operating units.

我們擁有 SEI 和 CPI Electron Device 業務兩個多月了，迄今為止我們對每一次收購都感到滿意。SEI 已與我們現有的營運單位之一 DART Aerospace 聯繫在一起。我們已將 CPI 電子裝置業務拆分為兩個營運部門。

Microwave power products located in Palo Alto and Woodland, California, and CPI Electron Device Business located in Beverly, Massachusetts and Middlesex UK. Although very early in our ownership of these businesses, we are pleased by what we are seeing in the businesses.

微波功率產品位於加州帕洛阿爾托和伍德蘭，CPI 電子裝置業務位於馬薩諸塞州貝弗利和英國米德爾塞克斯。儘管我們剛剛擁有這些企業，但我們對這些企業所看到的情況感到滿意。

In closing, I'd like to express how pleased I am by our operational performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Our management teams remain committed to our consistent operating strategy and servicing the robust demand for our products as we continue through the remainder of the year.

最後，我想表達我對 2024 財年第三季的營運業績感到非常高興。我們的管理團隊將繼續致力於我們一貫的營運策略，並在今年剩餘時間內繼續滿足對我們產品的強勁需求。

With that, I would like to turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne.

說到這裡，我想把它交給我們的財務長莎拉韋恩 (Sarah Wynne)。

Thanks, Joel, and good morning, everyone. I'll recap the financial highlights for the third quarter and then provide some more information on the guidance update. First, on organic growth and liquidity. In the third quarter, our organic growth rate was 14.6% and all market channels contributed to this growth, as Kevin and Joel just discussed. On cash and liquidity, free cash flow, which we traditionally define as EBITDA less cash interest payments, CapEx and cash taxes was roughly $700 million for the quarter, coming in around $1.6 billion on a year-to-date basis.

謝謝喬爾，大家早安。我將回顧第三季度的財務亮點，然後提供有關指導更新的更多資訊。首先，關於有機成長和流動性。第三季度，我們的有機成長率為 14.6%，所有市場管道都對此成長做出了貢獻，正如 Kevin 和 Joel 剛才所討論的。在現金和流動性方面，自由現金流（我們傳統上將其定義為 EBITDA 減去現金利息支付、資本支出和現金稅）本季約為 7 億美元，年初至今約為 16 億美元。

For the full fiscal year, we now expect to generate free cash flow slightly above $2 billion. Below that free cash flow line, net working capital consumed $84 million, and we continue to expect our annual dollars invested in net working capital to roughly align with historical levels as a percentage of sales. We ended the quarter with approximately $3.4 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 4.7 times, similar to last quarter, which was at 4.6 times, as we paid approximately $1.5 billion for acquisitions in Q3, primarily for the CPI acquisition that we closed on June 6.

我們現在預計整個財年的自由現金流將略高於 20 億美元。低於自由現金流線，淨營運資本消耗了 8,400 萬美元，我們仍然預計每年投資於淨營運資本的美元佔銷售額的百分比將大致與歷史水準一致。本季末，我們的資產負債表上有約34 億美元的現金，我們的淨負債與EBITDA 比率為4.7 倍，與上季類似，上季為4.6 倍，因為我們在第三季支付了約15億美元的收購費用，主要用於我們於 6 月 6 日完成的 CPI 收購。

In addition, we closed on the Raptor acquisition after the quarter on July 31 and deployed $655 million for that acquisition. Pro forma for the Raptor acquisition, the Q3 quarter-end cash balance would have been approximately $2.7 billion. While we don't target a specific amount of cash that we'd like to have on hand, we are happy to have cash available to support M&A, especially given the timing of closing of some of these can be difficult to predict.

此外，我們在 7 月 31 日季度結束後完成了對 Raptor 的收購，並為該收購部署了 6.55 億美元。預計收購 Raptor 後，第三季末現金餘額約為 27 億美元。雖然我們不希望手頭上擁有特定數量的現金，但我們很高興有現金可用於支持併購，特別是考慮到其中一些併購的完成時間可能難以預測。

We continue to be comfortable operating in the 5 times to 7 times net debt-to-EBITDA ratio range. And while we are currently sitting slightly below the low end of this range, our go-forward strategy, capital deployment has not changed, and we continue to seek the best opportunity for providing value to our shareholders through our leverage strategy.

我們繼續在 5 至 7 倍的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率範圍內舒適地運作。雖然我們目前略低於該範圍的低端，但我們的前進策略、資本部署並沒有改變，我們繼續尋求透過我們的槓桿策略為股東提供價值的最佳機會。

Our EBITDA to interest expense coverage ratio ended the quarter at 3.5 times, which provides us with comfortable cushion right against that target range of 2 times to 3 times. We continue to closely monitor our debt stacks and repriced approximately $3.6 billion of our term loan debt to a more favorable rate, SOFR-plus 2.5. Our capital allocation strategy is always to both proactively and prudently manage our debt maturities. Our nearest term maturity is November 2027, which gives us plenty of protection, at least in the short term. In addition, approximately 75% of our $22 billion gross debt balance is fixed through fiscal 2027.

本季末，我們的 EBITDA 與利息費用覆蓋率為 3.5 倍，這為我們在 2 至 3 倍的目標範圍內提供了舒適的緩衝。我們繼續密切監控我們的債務堆棧，並將約 36 億美元的定期貸款債務重新定價為更優惠的利率，即 SOFR+2.5。我們的資本配置策略始終是積極、審慎地管理我們的債務期限。我們最近的期限是 2027 年 11 月，這為我們提供了充足的保護，至少在短期內是如此。此外，到 2027 財年，我們 220 億美元總債務餘額中的約 75% 已修復。

This is achieved through a combination of fixed rate notes, interest rate caps, swaps and collars. This continues to provide us adequate cushion against any rising rates, at least in the immediate term. With regards to guidance, as Kevin mentioned, we increased our midpoint sales and EBITDA by $160 million and $85 million, respectively, given the strong quarter along with our current expectations for the year, including the newly closed acquisitions. Our adjusted EPS guidance is now $33.02 compared to the prior guidance of $32.42 in support of the higher EBITDA.

這是透過固定利率票據、利率上限、掉期和利率區間的組合來實現的。這繼續為我們提供足夠的緩衝來應對任何利率上升，至少在短期內是如此。關於指導，正如 Kevin 所提到的，考慮到強勁的季度以及我們目前對今年的預期（包括新完成的收購），我們的中點銷售額和 EBITDA 分別增加了 1.6 億美元和 8500 萬美元。我們調整後的 EPS 指引現在為 33.02 美元，而先前的指引為 32.42 美元，以支援更高的 EBITDA。

As we sit here today, from an overall cash, liquidity and balance sheet standpoint, we think we remain in good position with adequate flexibility to continue pursuing M&A opportunities or return cash to our shareholders via dividends or repurchases.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，從整體現金、流動性和資產負債表的角度來看，我們認為我們仍然處於有利地位，具有足夠的靈活性，可以繼續尋求併購機會或透過股利或回購向股東返還現金。

With that, I'll turn it back to the operator to kick off the Q&A.

這樣，我會將其轉回給操作員以開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Robert Spingarn, Melius Research.

羅伯特‧斯賓加恩 (Robert Spingarn)，Melius 研究中心。

Good morning. This is Scott Mikus on for Rob Spingarn.

早安.這是 Scott Mikus 為 Rob Spingarn 配音。

Good morning.

早安.

Kevin, Mike, Joel, Sarah, typically, you announced a capital allocation decision when you report fiscal fourth quarter results in November. So I'm curious, given that we might have a potential change in administration, and potentially an FTC that might be more open to M&A, does that change your thought process for capital deployment and maybe keeping a little extra dry powder on the balance sheet for M&A going into 2025?

Kevin、Mike、Joel、Sarah，通常情況下，你們會在 11 月報告第四財季業績時宣布資本分配決定。所以我很好奇，考慮到我們可能會在管理方面發生潛在的變化，並且聯邦貿易委員會可能對併購更加開放，這是否會改變您資本部署的思維過程，並可能在資產負債表上保留一些額外的乾粉2025 年是否會進行併購？

Sure. I'll take that one. Yeah, I mean, I think last year, we did do something in November. Currently, as we sit here today, obviously, we're coming close to closing out fiscal '24 here. We've got few billion dollars of cash. I think we'll look to make that decision as we close out '24 but heading into the fiscal '25, so sometime by the end of the calendar year.

當然。我會接受那個。是的，我的意思是，我想去年 11 月我們確實做了一些事情。目前，當我們今天坐在這裡時，顯然我們即將結束 24 財年。我們有幾十億美元的現金。我認為我們會在 24 財年結束但進入 25 財年（即日曆年末的某個時候）時做出這一決定。

Okay. And then airlines have been flagging overcapacity in the passenger market, especially in the US, but at the same time, Boeing and Airbus are struggling to ramp up their deliveries. So for the commercial aftermarket products, you mentioned the strong orders from distributors, but have you seen any change in order flow directly from the airlines?

好的。隨後，航空公司一直在客運市場上出現運力過剩的情況，尤其是在美國，但同時，波音和空中巴士卻在努力提高交貨量。那麼對於商業售後產品，您提到了來自分銷商的強勁訂單，但是您是否看到直接來自航空公司的訂單流有任何變化？

I think for the quarter, we saw some changes, but nothing significant. As you said -- as we've noted, the POS from distribution partners was very strong for the quarter. And I think the -- we had solid book-to-bill in the quarter as well as we have for the full year within commercial. And I think overall, there has -- we have not seen any, what I would say, significant change in their patterns. And think that's sets us up well for Q4.

我認為本季我們看到了一些變化，但沒有什麼重大變化。正如您所說，正如我們所指出的，本季分銷合作夥伴的 POS 非常強勁。我認為，我們在本季以及全年的商業領域都有穩定的訂單出貨量。我認為總的來說，我們沒有看到他們的模式發生任何重大變化。我認為這為我們第四季度做好了準備。

Okay. I'll stop there. Thanks for taking the questions.

好的。我就到此為止。感謝您提出問題。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Thanks so much. Good morning. It's probably for Kevin and/or Joel. I was wondering if you could dig a little bit more into the freight aftermarket and whether there are any specific customers that are perhaps moving things around here as they retire older planes or anything in that, whether that's having an impact on your aftermarket bookings and revenues?

非常感謝。早安.這可能是給凱文和/或喬爾的。我想知道您是否可以更多地了解貨運售後市場，以及是否有任何特定客戶在退役舊飛機或其他任何東西時可​​能會在這裡搬運東西，這是否會對您的售後市場預訂和收入產生影響？

I really think this is just driven from the change back to where we were back in 2019. In 2019, the vast majority of freight was through belly capacity. During the COVID time period, it was a big switch over to dedicated freighters. Obviously, with the international markets recovering, it has pretty quickly and dramatically swung back to belly capacity.

我真的認為這只是回到 2019 年的變化所致。2019年，絕大多數的貨運都是透過腹艙運力進行。在新冠疫情期間，轉向專用貨機是重大轉變。顯然，隨著國際市場的復甦，它已經迅速且顯著地恢復到腹部產能。

So for us, this really impacts us with typically more lower-margin products. Things like the ULD type products. So although it impacts us more from a revenue standpoint, the actual EBITDA impact is significantly less than the way it shows up from a revenue standpoint. But it really is just the difference of the mix of products that you see on belly passenger freight capacity versus the dedicated freighters.

因此，對我們來說，這確實對我們的利潤率較低的產品產生了影響。像ULD類型的產品。因此，儘管從收入的角度來看，它對我們的影響更大，但實際的 EBITDA 影響卻遠小於從收入的角度顯示的影響。但這其實只是您在腹艙客運貨運能力與專用貨機上看到的產品組合的差異。

Right. And then as a follow-up, one for Sarah. In your language, you said you're trying to cushion against rate rises. But looking at this the other way, it looks like rates could be coming down. What sort of opportunity do you see going forward to restructure the debt and reduce your interest cost if the Fed does start to move?

正確的。接下來是莎拉的後續行動。用您的語言，您說您正在努力緩衝利率上升的影響。但從另一個角度來看，利率似乎可能會下降。如果聯準會確實開始採取行動，您認為未來有什麼樣的機會重組債務並降低利息成本？

Yeah. I mean we're -- as you know, and as I said, we're 75% hedged. We've done a lot of financing already this year. So we're already in a pretty good position, our next maturity date is until 2027. Because of all the recent refinancing, we've got some breakage fees that we'd have to pay if we wanted to try and reduce any of the rates on any of the stuff we've done recently.

是的。我的意思是，正如你所知，正如我所說，我們 75% 進行了對沖。今年我們已經進行了大量融資。所以我們已經處於一個非常好的位置，我們的下一個到期日是 2027 年。由於最近的再融資，如果我們想嘗試降低我們最近所做的任何事情的利率，我們必須支付一些破壞費用。

But then it just becomes a math exercise, right? If the rates drop substantially, we could go after some of those loans and refinance with the breakage fees and if the math makes sense. But obviously, as you know, we're always looking at this stuff opportunistically.

但隨後它就變成了數學練習，對嗎？如果利率大幅下降，如果數學合理的話，我們可以追索其中一些貸款並用破損費用進行再融資。但顯然，如你所知，我們總是機會主義地看待這些事情。

That's great. Thanks very much, guys.

那太棒了。非常感謝，夥計們。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

肯‧赫伯特，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. Maybe for Joel or Kevin, can you explain the discrepancy between the strong growth you saw on the point-of-sale side in the aftermarket relative to the passenger growth up 16%?

是的。你好。早安.也許對於喬爾或凱文來說，您能否解釋一下售後市場銷售點方面的強勁增長與 16% 的乘客增長之間的差異？

There's a slightly different probably mix of products in terms of where products are shipped out. I don't know that there's any dramatic difference. Obviously, our sales include sales to the distribution partners. There's probably some level of inventory destocking that happened as well, which would have impacted us a little bit in terms of how we sell product into the distribution piece.

就產品的出貨地點而言，產品組合可能略有不同。我不知道這有什麼顯著的差異。顯然，我們的銷售包括向分銷合作夥伴的銷售。也可能發生了一定程度的庫存去庫存，這會對我們如何將產品銷售到分銷部門方面產生一些影響。

I don't know that there was anything dramatic. From a full-year basis, we're up roughly 21% in the passenger submarket and the POS is up about that same amount. So some of it is a timing piece as well in terms of the by quarter for point-of-sale versus when we're selling the product. I don't know if there's anything beyond that that was really significant.

我不知道有什麼戲劇性的事情發生。從全年來看，我們的客運子市場成長了約 21%，POS 也成長了大約相同的幅度。因此，其中一些也是一個計時部分，就銷售點的季度與我們銷售產品的時間而言。我不知道除此之外是否還有什麼真正重要的事。

Okay. That's helpful. And if I could, on the interiors piece, some improvement there, it sounds like certainly sequentially, but are you seeing anything yet that gives you any confidence or any visibility on timing of when you might see more of these sort of the retrofit or upgrade beyond just sort of the repair sales starting to accelerate?

好的。這很有幫助。如果我可以在內飾方面進行一些改進，聽起來肯定是按順序進行的，但是您是否看到任何東西可以讓您對何時看到更多此類改造或升級的時間有任何信心或任何可見性除了維修銷售開始加速之外？

I think when we started fiscal '24, we were thinking we would start to see it this year. I think at this point, we don't know. We're seeing some smaller quantities of products now. I don't think we know. And obviously, as we're putting together the 2025 numbers, we'll know better as we put together the guidance for that.

我認為當我們開始 24 財年時，我們認為今年就會開始看到這一點。我想目前我們還不知道。我們現在看到一些數量較少的產品。我想我們不知道。顯然，當我們匯總 2025 年的數據時，我們會更清楚地了解這一點。

But at this point, it's probably wasn't as good as we had thought it would be this year and certainly has pushed to the right. Part of the challenge is, there's just not enough aircraft in -- that can be pulled out of service. To do an entire interior refresh, any planes that you can pull out of service. And certainly, there's some level of impact from the fact the OEMs aren't delivering enough new aircraft for them -- the airline to be able to pull some number of planes out of service to do that work. So that certainly has an impact on us as well.

但目前來看，今年的情況可能沒有我們想像的那麼好，而且肯定已經向右推了。部分挑戰在於，沒有足夠的飛機可以退役。要進行整個內部更新，您可以停止使用任何飛機。當然，原始設備製造商沒有為他們提供足夠的新飛機，這會產生一定程度的影響——航空公司無法停止使用一些飛機來完成這項工作。所以這肯定也會對我們產生影響。

Great. Thanks, Joel.

偉大的。謝謝，喬爾。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Hey there. Good morning, guys. Are there any watch areas in your own supply chain that you're keeping an eye on in terms of areas where there could be shortages, where you want to deploy some of your own people to help out suppliers, that kind of thing?

嘿。早上好傢伙。您自己的供應鏈中是否有任何您正在密切關注的區域，這些區域可能存在短缺，您想在這些區域部署一些自己的人員來幫助供應商，諸如此類的事情？

So what I would say today is we probably see more issues than we did back in 2019. Overall, it's improved significantly over the past two years. Today, it's probably the same caster characters you would hear from others, castings and electronic components are probably the final two areas.

所以我今天要說的是，我們可能會看到比 2019 年更多的問題。總體而言，這兩年有了顯著改善。今天，這可能與您從其他人那裡聽到的鑄造角色相同，鑄件和電子元件可能是最後兩個領域。

One of the great benefits of our highly decentralized structure is, we have 50 separate teams that work closely with their specific supply chain groups and stay close to them as needed. But overall, I think we've continued to see it improve quarter-over-quarter. And when it will get back to 2019 or before levels, I don't know. But I think we continue to see good progress.

我們高度分散的結構的一大好處是，我們擁有 50 個獨立的團隊，他們與特定的供應鏈團隊密切合作，並根據需要與他們保持密切聯繫。但總的來說，我認為我們繼續看到它逐季改善。什麼時候會回到2019年或之前的水平，我不知道。但我認為我們繼續看到良好的進展。

Good. And then maybe just one follow-up. When you look at the M&A environment now, and we just had that at your Investor Day not too long ago. Has there been much of a change? I mean, is there more stuff out there? Are there more opportunities out there? Or it's about how it was just a couple of months ago?

好的。然後也許只是一個後續行動。當你看看現在的併購環境時，我們剛剛在不久前的投資者日上看到了這一點。有很大的變化嗎？我的意思是，還有更多的東西嗎？還有更多的機會嗎？還是幾個月前的情況？

I think it's about what it was a couple of months ago. We see some good businesses possibly coming to the market next year. But between now and the end of the year, there's a good collection of stuff that we're evaluating. Again, it's difficult to predict when things meet the criteria, but we continue to work hard on it, looks the same. We're very busy.

我認為這與幾個月前的情況有關。我們看到一些好的企業可能會在明年進入市場。但從現在到今年年底，我們正在評估一系列很好的東西。同樣，很難預測事情何時滿足標準，但我們繼續努力，看起來還是一樣。我們很忙。

We're adding resources, as I commented on last quarter, and it continues the same and the at least near-term horizon, we remain very busy on the M&A front. And this year has been an unbelievable year for EBITDA acquired. This will be our second-best M&A year on record. So it's been very encouraging.

正如我在上個季度評論的那樣，我們正在增加資源，而且情況仍然如此，至少在短期內，我們在併購方面仍然非常忙碌。對於收購的 EBITDA 來說，今年是令人難以置信的一年。這將是我們有史以來第二好的併購年。所以這是非常令人鼓舞的。

Got it. And then maybe just one last one. How do you guys think about book-to-bill? I mean if you were to give sort of a sense broadly for the whole company, what is the book-to-bill for the company? And what's that look like for commercial versus defense? Because defense has been doing quite well as well.

知道了。然後也許只是最後一件事。你們如何看待從訂單到帳單？我的意思是，如果你要對整個公司有一個廣泛的了解，那麼公司的訂單出貨比是多少？商業與國防的情況又如何呢？因為防守也做得很好。

Yeah. We usually don't get into parsing this out. I would say year-to-date, our book-to-bill was well above 1. The business is growing and expanding. The only area in the recent quarter that maybe wasn't as strong was commercial OEM, which I think everyone would expect given what we're reading about [it]. But yeah, defense is running very strong, but so is commercial aftermarket and commercial OEM, we have strong book-to-bill and backlog that we've amassed throughout the year. It's been a very positive year on that front.

是的。我們通常不會對此進行解析。我想說，今年到目前為止，我們的訂單出貨率遠高於 1。業務不斷成長和擴大。最近一個季度唯一可能不那麼強勁的領域是商業 OEM，鑑於我們正在閱讀的內容，我認為每個人都會期望這一點[它]。但是，是的，防禦運作非常強勁，但商業售後市場和商業原始設備製造商也是如此，我們全年都累積了強大的訂單到帳單和積壓訂單。在這方面，這是非常積極的一年。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Hey. Good morning. Kevin, does the aftermarket comp in the fourth quarter get any easier on the freight side? Or is that fairly consistent with what you saw this quarter?

嘿。早安.凱文，第四季的售後市場貨運方面是否變得更容易？或者這與您本季看到的情況相當一致嗎？

I think it's fairly consistent from what we saw this quarter. I don't -- I was just looking at the number, and it looks pretty similar.

我認為這與我們本季看到的情況相當一致。我不知道——我只是看了一下這個數字，看起來很相似。

Okay. And then Joel, do you get the sense that some business units are seeing OEM inventories of their product building up for platforms like the 87 or 37? Or do you feel like they're doing a good job of assuring that doesn't happen and matching their shipments to the actual OEM production rates?

好的。Joel，您是否感覺到某些業務部門正在為 87 或 37 等平台建立其產品的 OEM 庫存？或者您認為他們在確保這種情況不會發生並將其出貨量與實際 OEM 生產率相匹配方面做得很好？

Again, when you have 50 operating units, I think this is somewhat varied. Part of the key is you have to ship to the OEM delivery date. And so if we see that they're trying to order more than we think is needed or getting inventory, but we do work to negotiate if we can, to have them push out the orders, so we don't end up kind of in this significant rise in fall level. Ultimately, the OEM is not willing to make the change, then you still have to ship the product in line with what that is. But we do work hard to deal with that when we can.

同樣，當你有 50 個營運單位時，我認為這有些不同。部分關鍵是您必須按照 OEM 交貨日期發貨。因此，如果我們看到他們試圖訂購超出我們認為需要的數量或獲得庫存，但如果可以的話，我們會努力進行談判，讓他們推遲訂單，這樣我們最終就不會陷入困境此次跌幅明顯上升。最終，OEM 不願意做出改變，那麼你仍然必須按照原樣發貨。但我們確實會盡力解決這個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks. Good morning. The absolute EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year, if I just take what you've done year to date, would seem to imply very little sequential improvement in the fourth quarter, even though I would assume you're going to pick up $20 million, $30 million in acquired EBITDA relative to Q2 -- or relative to Q3. So I guess, what am I missing in that math?

謝謝。早安.絕對 EBITDA，調整後的全年 EBITDA 指導，如果我只考慮你今年迄今為止所做的事情，似乎意味著第四季度的連續改善很小，儘管我假設你會有所回升相對於第二季度或第三季度，收購的EBITDA 為2,000 萬美元、3,000 萬美元。所以我想，我在數學中遺漏了什麼？

Yeah, it's a good question. We looked at it, and we always aim to be conservative. We just did a pile of acquisitions. We need to get in there and look at them in more detail. And also defense is where we're seeing more of the growth. We don't make quite as much money on the defense side. So it's a mixture of conservatism and what we think the markets look like. We're certainly not predicting a difficult Q4. We're just being somewhat conservative and practical in how we look at the year unfolding.

是的，這是一個好問題。我們審視了這一點，並且始終致力於保守。我們剛剛做了一堆收購。我們需要進入那裡並更詳細地研究它們。國防也是我們看到更多成長的領域。我們在防守方面賺的錢沒有那麼多。所以這是保守主義和我們對市場的看法的混合。我們當然不會預測第四季會很困難。我們只是對這一年的發展持保守和務實的態度。

Okay. Got it. And hit your -- hit the mid-teens forecast for the aftermarket for the full year, how much sequential aftermarket growth do you need in the fourth quarter relative to Q3?

好的。知道了。並達到全年售後市場的中雙位數預測，相較於第三季度，第四季售後市場連續成長需要多少？

I mean, I think it looks like our bookings. Our bookings are ahead of our shipments last quarter. I think we're in a good place. We're at mid-teens right now for the year. I think the way the bookings are unfolding; we shouldn't have any problem getting mid-teens for the year.

我的意思是，我認為這看起來像我們的預訂。我們的預訂量領先於上季的出貨量。我認為我們處在一個很好的位置。今年我們現在正處於十幾歲左右。我認為預訂的展開方式；我們今年達到十幾歲應該沒有任何問題。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Good morning. Kevin, maybe on M&A, since discussing the widening aperture of M&A at the Analyst Day, but clearly staying focused on A&D, can you discuss more of that pipeline of logistics of -- or pipeline of targets? I mean as you wade into this slightly broader pool, how deep is it? Are you seeing kind of maybe 2x the opportunities you would have seen if you'd have stayed with your focus? Any sort of directional or magnitude of size would be helpful.

嘿。早安.凱文，也許是關於併購，因為在分析師日討論了併購的擴大範圍，但顯然仍將重點放在 A&D 上，您能否更多地討論物流管道或目標管道？我的意思是，當你涉入這個稍微寬一些的水池時，它有多深？如果您繼續專注的話，您是否看到了兩倍的機會？任何類型的方向或大小大小都會有幫助。

Yeah. I don't think that it just creating another TransDigm out there in some of these other markets like helicopter accessories that we've been successful in recently and the testing, certification and instrumentation area of aerospace and defense. We want to stay in aerospace and defense. This will only ever so slightly broadens our aperture. We're looking for other solid places in aerospace and defense to put capital to work. And we think these are great areas. They're not going to double the market of TransDigm, however, but provide nice additional acquisition opportunities for us.

是的。我不認為它只是在其他一些市場創建另一個 TransDigm，例如我們最近成功的直升機配件以及航空航天和國防的測試、認證和儀器儀表領域。我們想留在航空航太和國防領域。這只會稍微擴大我們的光圈。我們正在航空航太和國防領域尋找其他可靠的地方來投入資本。我們認為這些都是很棒的領域。然而，他們不會使 TransDigm 的市場翻倍，但卻為我們提供了很好的額外收購機會。

Thanks. That's helpful. And if I could add another question on PMA. I mean there's more cost consciousness from airlines, especially in light of the recent profit cuts. At the same time, we're seeing more PMA players enter the industry seeing your success in commercial aerospace aftermarket and the success of PMA focused business models like HEICO. Your portfolio has historically been more defensible and very defensible against PMA players. And in fact, you do PMA yourself as well. Like are you seeing anything different this time in this cycle?

謝謝。這很有幫助。如果我可以在 PMA 上添加另一個問題。我的意思是航空公司有更多的成本意識，特別是考慮到最近的利潤削減。同時，我們看到越來越多的 PMA 參與者進入該行業，看到您在商業航空航天售後市場的成功以及 HEICO 等專注於 PMA 的商業模式的成功。從歷史上看，您的投資組合在對抗 PMA 玩家時更具防禦性，並且非常具有防禦性。事實上，您自己也進行 PMA。就像你在這個週期中看到什麼不同的東西嗎？

I don't think so. We continue to monitor this. Obviously, used material is not a player in the aftermarket because of limited planes being scrapped out. As far as PMA goes, we monitor it constantly. The very -- the massive lion's share of our products are very complicated products that don't tend to lend themselves to PMA nor do they have the volumes necessary in many of these cases to lend themselves to PMA.

我不這麼認為。我們將繼續關注此事。顯然，由於報廢的飛機有限，二手材料在售後市場上並不重要。就 PMA 而言，我們不斷對其進行監控。我們的產品中很大一部分是非常複雜的產品，它們往往不適合 PMA，而且在許多情況下它們也沒有足夠的數量來適合 PMA。

Like I've said, like our team has said many times and we said at our Investor Day, we continue to monitor this closely. The FAA publishes a -- all of the PMAs approved, and we can follow it very closely, and to date, haven't seen anything that causes -- that gives us concern.

就像我說過的那樣，就像我們的團隊多次說過的那樣，我們在投資者日上說過，我們將繼續密切關注這一情況。FAA 發布了所有已批准的 PMA，我們可以非常密切地關注它，到目前為止，還沒有看到任何引起我們擔憂的事情。

Great. Thanks for the color.

偉大的。謝謝你的顏色。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning. Kevin, in your comments, you mentioned that lower OEM production continued to weigh on TransDigm's results, which, I think, is a statement of obvious on sales. But I'm curious, are your OEM margins also below pre-pandemic levels? And maybe if you can comment on the benefit of some OEM pricing negotiations into year-end and what that might do for you to help if OEM is faster growing in '25 than aftermarket? Thanks.

謝謝。早安.Kevin，在您的評論中，您提到 OEM 產量的下降繼續影響 TransDigm 的業績，我認為這對銷售來說是一個明顯的陳述。但我很好奇，你們的 OEM 利潤率是否也低於疫情前的水準？也許您可以評論一些 OEM 定價談判到年底的好處，以及如果 OEM 在 25 年比售後市場增長更快，這可能對您有什麼幫助？謝謝。

Yeah. I think on the OEM side, we're always working on contracts with OEMs as they expire. But as we have always clearly stated, the lion's share of our profits come from the aftermarket. On the OEM side, I would say we're probably similar in profitability to where we have been historically. We have seen an awful lot of inflation that we need to account for in renegotiating of contracts and we're working on that right now, but no real update to provide yet.

是的。我認為在 OEM 方面，我們總是與 OEM 簽訂到期合約。但正如我們一直明確指出的那樣，我們的大部分利潤來自售後市場。在 OEM 方面，我想說我們的獲利能力可能與歷史水準相似。我們已經看到了嚴重的通貨膨脹，我們需要在重新談判合約時考慮到這一點，我們現在正在努力解決這個問題，但尚未提供真正的更新。

And then one detail, follow if I could. The EBITDA raise, I think, implies organically was $50 million on $35 million in sales. Is there something in other income or other areas that helped make that 100% -- greater than 100% incremental margins?

然後是一個細節，如果可以的話，請遵循。我認為，EBITDA 的提高意味著 3500 萬美元的銷售額有機地增加了 5000 萬美元。其他收入或其他領域是否有什麼可以幫助實現 100%——大於 100% 的增量利潤？

No. We don't -- Sarah is shaking her head at me. There's nothing that is non-business related to that that we can quickly identify.

不。我們不——莎拉對我搖頭。沒有任何與業務無關的內容是我們可以快速識別的。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Hey. Good morning. Just going back to this topic of opening up the aperture or not on M&A, Kevin. I guess if I zoom out and if we're looking at your total funnel or I guess maybe the things in the funnel that are posted to the finish line than not, or if you define it as your likely next 5 to 10 acquisitions, are we still looking at the majority of your deals are going to be -- are likely to be the classic in your wheelhouse, airplane parts, aftermarket rich, sole and dual source, proprietary? Or could it be that the majority are in this category of opening the aperture?

嘿。早安.回到這個話題，凱文，是否在併購方面打開了大門。我想，如果我縮小範圍，如果我們正在查看您的總漏斗，或者我想也許漏斗中發佈到終點線的東西，或者如果您將其定義為您接下來可能進行的 5 到 10 次收購，那麼我們仍在關注你們的大部分交易——可能是你們駕駛室、飛機零件、售後市場豐富、單一和雙源、專有的經典交易？或者說，大部分都是開竅這一類的？

The vast majority will always be as we would say, right down the fairway components, aftermarket contents, what we've historically done, and that's what the bulk -- the absolute lion's share of everything that we're looking at for the future. The -- that's why I don't want to oversell the opening of the aperture, but it's just smart other places to put money to work, but the bulk of our M&A activity will still be in the component business that you've seen us acquire around for our history.

正如我們所說，絕大多數將永遠是球道組件、售後內容、我們歷史上所做的事情，這就是大部分——我們未來所期待的一切的絕對最大份額。這就是為什麼我不想過度誇大光圈的開放，但在其他地方投入資金是明智的，但我們的大部分併購活動仍將集中在您所看到的組件業務中了解我們的歷史。

Okay. Great. And Sarah, do you have a number on how much acquisition margin dilution there is in the fourth quarter EBITDA margin?

好的。偉大的。莎拉，您是否有關於第四季度 EBITDA 利潤率中收購利潤率稀釋程度的數字？

Yes. That's three new ones, it would be just over 100 basis points.

是的。這是三個新的，略高於 100 個基點。

Okay. Great. And then just one other one for you is, if you got to $2 billion on the full-year free cash, you'd be a little over 100% conversion. I can't recall where that stands in terms of being how it's defined with working capital. Is that including or excluding? And how much working capital use are you looking at for the full year now?

好的。偉大的。對你來說，另一個問題是，如果你的全年自由現金達到 20 億美元，那麼你的轉換率就略高於 100%。我不記得它是如何用營運資金定義的。這是包含還是排除？您預計全年的營運資金使用量是多少？

Yes. For the full-year working capital, I think we're like about 200 full year, so we've got just another quarter to go. So maybe you throw a bit more there, but I think we're generally trying to track it as a percent of sales.

是的。對於全年營運資金，我認為我們全年大約有 200 美元，所以我們還有一個季度的時間。所以也許你會多投入一點，但我認為我們通常會嘗試將其追蹤為銷售額的百分比。

And the $2 billion would be including that or excluding that head --

20 億美元將包括該頭或不包括該頭--

No, sorry. That would be excluding it.

不，抱歉。那將排除它。

Okay, got it. Thank you.

好，知道了。謝謝。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Hey. Good morning, everybody. Kevin, I was wondering if you wouldn't mind going back to Myles' question about the negotiations that you have going on with some of your OEM customers. Just curious in the context of so many disparate operations that you have going on, do you go one by one through each contract at every single one of your business units? Or is there a kind of a bigger bang, broader negotiation that's going on here?

嘿。大家早安。凱文，我想知道您是否介意回到邁爾斯關於您與一些 OEM 客戶正在進行的談判的問題。只是好奇，在您正在進行如此多不同的業務的情況下，您是否會逐一查看每個業務部門的每份合約？還是這裡正在進行一場更大、更廣泛的談判？

I know you've just suggested you don't want to get out ahead of your skis on the timing of things. But I think just understanding what the shape of that might look like for all of us because that's, I think, an important part of your margin store and your ability to increase margins going forward, that 100, 150 basis points and you talked about renegotiations at the Investor Day as being kind of a key tenet to making sure that continues to happen. Thanks.

我知道你只是建議你不要在滑雪時間之前就出去。但我認為，只要了解我們所有人可能會是什麼樣子，因為我認為，這是你的保證金存儲以及你未來提高利潤率的能力的重要組成部分，100、150個基點，你談到了重新談判在投資者日，這是確保這種情況繼續發生的關鍵原則。謝謝。

Yeah. So with our think and act like an owner, a highly decentralized structure, we like the idea that every one of our operating units is the ones that sit and have to negotiate the contract. They're the ones who have to live with them. There's really only a couple that are kind of larger, more corporate-driven, that we've obviously referred to Boeing in the past. Other than that, I mean, these are really contracts, OEM contracts that are negotiated operating unit by operating unit.

是的。因此，我們像所有者一樣思考和行動，這是一個高度分散的結構，我們喜歡這樣的想法：我們的每個營運單位都是坐下來談判合約的單位。他們是必須和他們一起生活的人。實際上只有兩家規模更大、更受企業驅動的公司，我們過去顯然曾提到波音公司。除此之外，我的意思是，這些實際上是合同，是各運營單位協商的 OEM 合約。

Okay. Great. And then just as a quick follow-up. I'm just kind of curious what you're seeing on the hiring side of things and your ability to get the right people in the right places and what the trend line has been there here recently? Thanks.

好的。偉大的。然後作為快速跟進。我只是有點好奇您在招聘方面看到了什麼以及您將合適的人放在合適的位置的能力以及最近的趨勢線是什麼？謝謝。

Yeah. I think we continue to see that improve. I think turnover has largely, for us, gone back to where we were back into 2019 timeframe. I think hiring has also significantly improved that the vast majority of our operating units and locations. And I think we've highlighted before, typically highly skilled engineers are harder than other positions. I don't know that that's changed materially so. But I think, overall, I think it's quite a bit better today than it was a couple of years ago.

是的。我認為我們會繼續看到這種情況的改善。我認為我們的營業額在很大程度上已經回到了 2019 年的水平。我認為我們絕大多數營運單位和地點的招募也得到了顯著改善。我想我們之前已經強調過，通常高技能的工程師比其他職位更難。我不知道情況發生了實質改變。但我認為，總體而言，我認為今天的情況比幾年前要好得多。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Ellen Page, Jefferies.

艾倫佩奇，杰弗里斯。

Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. Just going back to the dilution from M&A. It seems like it's 100 bps or so next year. How do we think about the puts and takes to profitability given mix might not be as favorable?

嗨，大家好。謝謝你的提問。回到併購帶來的稀釋。明年好像是100bps左右。鑑於組合可能不那麼有利，我們如何看待看跌期權和看跌期權對盈利能力的影響？

Could you repeat that question? You broke up.

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？你們分手了。

Sorry. Just going back to the dilution from M&A. As we think about fiscal '25, how do we think about the puts and takes to EBITDA margin given a 100 bps of dilution and potentially less favorable mix?

對不起。回到併購帶來的稀釋。當我們考慮 25 財年時，考慮到 100 個基點的稀釋度和可能不太有利的組合，我們如何考慮 EBITDA 利潤率的看跌期權和看跌期權？

Yeah. We don't want to get into our '25 forecast just yet. We'll cover that on the next quarter call. Our teams, as you know, we practice bottoms-up forecasting and then we roll that out to you. So our teams are going through that process right now. Obviously, a lot depends on future acquisitions and the dilution that we will see. Right now, it's 125 basis points of dilution, yeah, for '24. That will wind down into '25, but also depends on the acquisitions that we complete. So difficult to forecast. You agree with that, Sarah?

是的。我們還不想進入 25 年的預測。我們將在下個季度的電話會議中討論這一點。如您所知，我們的團隊實行自下而上的預測，然後將其推廣給您。所以我們的團隊現在正在經歷這個過程。顯然，這在很大程度上取決於未來的收購和我們將看到的稀釋。現在，24 年的稀釋度是 125 個基點。這將持續到 25 年，但也取決於我們完成的收購。所以很難預測。你同意這一點嗎，莎拉？

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

Okay. Thanks. I'll leave it at that.

好的。謝謝。我就這樣吧。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Hi. This is Rocco on for Seth. How should we start thinking about the commercial aftermarket growth in fiscal year '25, given the capacity growth is slowing and travel started to catch up to pre-COVID levels? Is the double-digit growth rate sustainable? Or should we start seeing some more headwinds?

你好。這是賽斯的羅科。鑑於運力成長正在放緩且旅行開始趕上新冠疫情之前的水平，我們應該如何開始考慮 25 財年的商業售後市場成長？兩位數的增速能否持續？或者我們應該開始看到更多的阻力？

We don't want to get into -- and I know that's what -- there's a lot of interest in what will next year look like. And we'll offer that to you guys next quarter. We're still unpacking that ourselves as we look forward. Obviously, it's still a growing and exciting markets, and we'll give you more of that flavor on our next call.

我們不想陷入——我知道就是這樣——人們對明年的情況很感興趣。我們將在下個季度向你們提供這項服務。展望未來，我們仍在自行拆包。顯然，這仍然是一個不斷成長且令人興奮的市場，我們將在下次電話會議上為您提供更多此類資訊。

Great. Yeah. Understood. And then are there any specific programs or areas that are driving the strong growth in defense aftermarket this year?

偉大的。是的。明白了。那麼今年有哪些具體計畫或領域正在推動國防售後市場的強勁成長呢？

No, it's actually been pretty widespread across almost every one of our defense businesses. There's a couple that have had some larger bookings. But across when we look at it from a revenue standpoint, there isn't really any one significant program that's driven the number.

不，它實際上在我們幾乎每一項國防業務中都非常普遍。有一對夫婦有一些較大的預訂。但當我們從收入的角度來看時，實際上並沒有任何一個重要的計劃可以推動這個數字。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，TD·考恩。

Hey. Good morning, guys. I have two questions. One, I was curious on the OEM contract renegotiations, renewals. When do some of those big contracts actually expire? Is that at the end of this year, so that's sort of the time frame? Or I'm just curious like how much time do we have before we know the outcomes of those?

嘿。早上好傢伙。我有兩個問題。第一，我對 OEM 合約的重新談判、續約感到好奇。其中一些大合約實際上什麼時候到期？是在今年底嗎？或者我只是好奇我們還有多少時間才能知道這些結果？

Well, first, we always have some number of LTA contracts that are expiring, a typical OEM contracts are up in three to five years. I think one that Kevin had referred to was a Boeing one that we're currently negotiating. That expires at the end of this year. It reflects a certain group of our businesses, not all of them. Beyond that, there's always some number every single year of OEM contracts that come up for renewal or renegotiation.

首先，我們總是有一些長期協議合約即將到期，典型的 OEM 合約將在三到五年內到期。我認為凱文提到的一架是我們目前正在談判的波音飛機。該期限將於今年底到期。它反映了我們的某些業務，而不是全部。除此之外，每年總會有一些原始設備製造商合約需要續約或重新談判。

Okay. That's helpful. And that's --

好的。這很有幫助。那就是--

We know how to handle a lot of those renegotiations on the -- they involve all the sites as well as some coordination from the top. So all of our sites are involved in this process.

我們知道如何處理大量的重新談判——它們涉及所有站點以及來自高層的一些協調。所以我們所有的站點都參與了這個過程。

Got you. That's helpful. I also want to just ask on the commercial aero aftermarket. Is there any thematic thing you're seeing within the data on types of products, whether they're discretionary, non-discretionary, however you want to characterize it? Where you're seeing relative strength?

明白你了。這很有幫助。我還想問一下商業航空售後市場。您在產品類型的資料中是否看到任何主題，無論它們是自由裁量的還是非自由裁量的，無論您想如何描述它？您在哪裡看到相對強度？

The only thing I'd say is the engine shops, obviously, are well booked out. I think our engine businesses are doing extremely well. It's really much more varied after that. I was looking at that same data as there's some significant difference between discretionary versus non and there really is not. I think it's just probably the nature of how much inventory the OEMs, the airlines are carrying and the specific needs on that one part, but there wasn't any significant difference when I looked at the data between discretionary and not.

我唯一要說的是，顯然，引擎商店已經被預訂一空了。我認為我們的引擎業務做得非常好。之後的情況確實更加多樣化。我正在查看相同的數據，因為自由裁量權與非自由裁量權之間存在一些顯著差異，但實際上沒有。我認為這可能只是原始設備製造商、航空公司所攜帶的庫存量以及這方面的具體需求的本質，但當我查看全權委託和非全權委託之間的數據時，沒有任何顯著差異。

Great. Thank you, guys.

偉大的。感謝你們。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Hey. Thanks, guys. Good morning Just wanted to pull a little bit on what strong bookings and aftermarket means given kind of the language has been strong with a pretty wide range of aftermarket growth rates. So just any comment on if that's bookings above revenue? I appreciate that can be lumpy.

嘿。多謝你們。早安，只是想稍微談談強勁的預訂和售後市場意味著什麼，因為這種語言一直很強大，售後市場增長率也相當廣泛。那麼對於預訂量是否高於收入有什麼評論嗎？我很欣賞這可能是凹凸不平的。

Yeah. We've booked basically, I think, certainly on a full year basis in this quarter, CAM bookings were ahead of shipments. I don't remember if that was true every quarter this year, but certainly was true this quarter and any year to date. And actually, from a year-to-date basis, even in our freight market, we've booked better that we have shipped out.

是的。我想，我們基本上已經預訂了，當然是在本季度的全年基礎上，CAM 預訂提前於發貨。我不記得今年每個季度是否都是如此，但本季和迄今為止的任何一年肯定都是如此。事實上，從今年至今，即使在我們的貨運市場，我們的預訂量也比出貨量好。

Okay. That's helpful. I mean, I don't know what typical is nowadays, but would you say you have more or less visibility into kind of next quarter's aftermarket growth than typical?

好的。這很有幫助。我的意思是，我不知道現在的典型情況是什麼，但您是否認為您對下一季度售後市場成長的了解比典型情況更多或更少？

I think what we've said before is our aftermarket is lumpy. We -- this is a highly booked to ship business. And I don't know that there's a dramatic change in terms of what percentage books in the quarter and shifts out. It's actually remained somewhat the same. But we have no visibility to what orders are going to show up that quarter until they do. It's why we always talk about the lumpiness of the booking in shipment number.

我認為我們之前說過我們的售後市場是不穩定的。我們——這是一項預訂量很高的船舶業務。我不知道本季的預訂和轉出百分比是否有顯著變化。它實際上保持不變。但在訂單出現之前，我們無法得知該季度將出現哪些訂單。這就是為什麼我們總是談論發貨數量中的預訂混亂。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·恰莫利 (Michael Ciarmoli)，Truist 證券公司。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Joe, maybe just to stay on that topic. I mean -- and even kind of going back to Ron's question on the book-to-bill, I mean, there's -- capacity is tight in the marketplace, engine shops are scheduled out. The airlines aren't getting new planes. I mean, would you say as you close out this year, and I can appreciate all the short-cycle commentary.

嘿。早上好傢伙。感謝您提出問題。喬，也許只是為了延續這個話題。我的意思是——甚至有點回到羅恩關於訂單到賬單的問題，我的意思是，市場上的產能很緊張，發動機車間都被安排好了。航空公司沒有購買新飛機。我的意思是，當你今年結束時你會說，我可以欣賞所有的短週期評論。

But do you think visibility is better than normal just kind of given what's going on in the OE kind of supply chain challenges and the extended nature of some of these shop visits that are really scheduled way out?

但是，考慮到原廠供應鏈面臨的挑戰以及其中一些確實已安排好的商店參觀的延長性質，您是否認為可見性比正常情況要好？

I don't think there's a significant change. Our lead times in the aftermarket are relatively short, certainly in comparison to the commercial loan we have for the defense side. And so we don't get a dramatic amount of visibility. The significant portion of the orders that we shipped in Q4 will book in Q4.

我認為沒有重大變化。與我們為國防方提供的商業貸款相比，我們在售後市場的交貨時間相對較短。因此我們沒有獲得大量的可見性。我們在第四季度發貨的訂單中的很大一部分將在第四季度預訂。

So although the engine shops may be booked out several quarters or years, we don't get the same level of orders based on the volume of work they're doing. We may be able to use that to give us some level of guidance or comfort on what orders we may expect, but we don't get extra visibility.

因此，儘管引擎車間可能會在幾個季度或幾年內被預訂一空，但根據他們正在進行的工作量，我們並沒有獲得相同水平的訂單。我們也許可以利用它來為我們提供一定程度的指導或安慰，以了解我們可能期望的訂單，但我們無法獲得額外的可見性。

Got it. And then just, Kevin, one more back to M&A on this opening of the aperture. I mean you've got -- you said a couple of times, 50 different operating units. You've got a lot of scale. Are you thinking or finding that it may be more challenging to stay in that middle of the fairway on airline parts, just given what kind of antitrust or regulatory issues might crop up and you're kind of opening up the aperture to kind of steer clear of some of those issues?

知道了。然後，凱文，在這次開放中再次回到併購。我的意思是，你已經說過好幾次了，有 50 個不同的營運單位。你有很大的規模。您是否認為或發現，考慮到可能會出現什麼樣的反壟斷或監管問題，並且您正在打開一個光圈以避開，那麼在航空公司零件上停留在球道中間可能更具挑戰性其中一些問題？

Yeah. I don't see it as something new in the marketplace in terms of HSR review or anything. I think we've always tried to be smart about our M&A portfolio. So we're not opening the aperture because of trying to get deals through, it's a desire to consume more capital on M&A if there are good aerospace and defense-type businesses in that larger market that makes sense for us.

是的。就 HSR 審查或其他方面而言，我不認為這是市場上的新事物。我認為我們一直在努力明智地對待我們的併購投資組合。因此，我們不會因為試圖達成交易而打開漏洞，而是希望在對我們有意義的更大市場中存在良好的航空航天和國防類型業務時，在併購上消耗更多資本。

So it's simply just taking advantage of what we're finding in the marketplace that we believe matches our very disciplined criteria. We still see a tremendous number of opportunities down the fairway in the traditional components of aerospace and defense. And there are so many parts that are on an airplane that we don't supply yet, there are still a vast number we can continue to look for in the marketplace. So as I look out, there's a lot of opportunity ahead of us still.

因此，這只是利用我們在市場上發現的、我們認為符合我們非常嚴格的標準的東西。我們在航空航太和國防的傳統領域仍然看到了大量的機會。飛機上有很多零件我們還沒有供應，但我們仍然可以繼續在市場上尋找大量零件。因此，據我觀察，我們面前仍然有很多機會。

Okay, sir. Thanks, guys.

好的，先生。多謝你們。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in here. Kevin or Joel, maybe can you just comment on -- you called out the biz jet market is kind of a watch item. You've had really only one negative quarter of growth, and that was in Q2 and your aftermarket. Otherwise, the last kind of four quarters, you've had good growth, but you're calling it out. Just maybe you could just provide a little more color on what you're seeing there? Thanks.

是的。早安.謝謝你把我擠在這裡。凱文或喬爾，也許你可以評論一下——你指出商務噴射機市場是一種觀察項目。實際上只有一個季度出現負成長，那就是第二季和售後市場。否則，在過去的四個季度裡，你已經取得了良好的成長，但你卻在喊出來。也許您可以為您在那裡看到的內容提供更多顏色？謝謝。

I think it's just being driven by the larger kind of data pool we see; the data comes out every month from the FAA in terms of takeoffs and landings and -- it had picked up. I think it was at one point like 120% of 2019 levels, and it's kind of modulated now closer to like 103%, 104% or something like that.

我認為這只是由我們看到的更大類型的資料池所驅動的；美國聯邦航空局每月都會發布有關起飛和降落的數據，而且數據有所回升。我認為一度是 2019 年水準的 120%，現在經過調整，接近 103%、104% 或類似的水準。

So I just think we're seeing an overall slowing in the takeoffs and landings. And so I think we generally think when you see that moderating or slowly -- or decreasing, it's going to translate into us into lower shipments. I think that's the reason we've kind of called it out as a watch item.

所以我認為我們看到起飛和著陸總體放緩。因此，我認為我們普遍認為，當你看到這種放緩或緩慢 - 或減少時，這將轉化為我們的出貨量下降。我認為這就是我們將其稱為手錶產品的原因。

I appreciate the color. I'll leave that one. Thanks, guys.

我很欣賞它的顏色。我會留下那個。多謝你們。

Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.

Pete Skibitski，Alembic Global。

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. I just want to return to this topic of growing global airline traffic but some pricing pressure at the airlines. Just was wondering if you guys are -- you touched on it earlier, but I just was wondering if you're seeing any trend of airlines tightening their belts maybe with discretionary spend.

是的。謝謝。早安.我只想回到全球航空運輸量不斷增長但航空公司面臨定價壓力的話題。我只是想知道你們是否——你們之前提到過這一點，但我只是想知道你們是否看到航空公司勒緊褲腰帶的趨勢，可能是透過可自由支配的支出。

And I don't know if you could bifurcate for us on the aftermarket your sort of discretionary exposure versus more mandatory. Or should we think of it that your price points tend to be kind of low enough that it's kind of not an area -- your products are not an area where an airline would look to tighten its belt? Thanks.

我不知道您是否可以在售後市場上為我們區分您的自由裁量風險和強制性風險。或者我們應該認為你們的價格點往往足夠低，以至於它不是一個領域——你們的產品不是航空公司會勒緊褲腰帶的領域？謝謝。

I think in general, our price point in the aftermarket is pretty low. We say a couple of thousand dollars per -- price points per part in the aftermarket. So it doesn't lend itself to maybe as much scrutiny at times. But we continue to operate -- deliver the highest quality, best delivery performance possible in the industry. If there's any slowdown, maybe as Joel commented on, in some of the discretionary aftermarket places.

我認為總的來說，我們在售後市場的價格相當低。我們說售後市場上每個零件的價格為數千美元。因此，它有時不適合接受那麼多的審查。但我們將繼續營運——提供業內最高品質、最佳交付效能。如果有任何放緩，也許正如喬爾評論的那樣，在一些可自由支配的售後市場。

Are there any -- what airline activity is out there? We've certainly read and seen comments from many of you that the airlines are trying to manage inventory closely. We haven't necessarily seen any of that translate to our business, but it continues to be a watch item. And we're always looking for any changes. Things seem relatively business as usual.

那裡有什麼航空公司活動嗎？我們當然已經閱讀並看到了你們許多人的評論，即航空公司正在努力密切管理庫存。我們還沒有看到任何這些轉化為我們的業務，但它仍然是一個手錶項目。我們一直在尋找任何改變。事情看起來還算正常。

Appreciate it. Thank you.

欣賞它。謝謝。

Bert Subin, Stifel.

伯特·蘇賓，史蒂菲爾。

Hey. Good afternoon. Maybe just a follow-up, Joel, on the -- you've had a lot of questions on the sort of how commercial aftermarket is progressing. Is there any color you can provide just from a regional standpoint because we've seen a little bit of a divergence in capacity trends globally. Is that impacting sort of your geographic mix?

嘿。午安.也許只是後續行動，喬爾，您對商業售後市場的進展有很多疑問。您是否可以僅從區域角度提供任何顏色，因為我們已經看到全球容量趨勢存在一些差異。這會影響您的地理組合嗎？

Sorry, I missed the middle part of your question, if you could just repeat it again, sorry.

抱歉，我錯過了你問題的中間部分，如果你能再重複一遍，抱歉。

Sure. I was just asking from a geographic standpoint, we've seen capacity growth at least relative to 2019 levels, diverge a bit whether you're looking at the Middle East or Asia or North America or Europe. I'm curious if that's translated into sort of any change in your typical geographic mix of sales in the aftermarket?

當然。我只是從地理角度來看，我們看到產能至少相對於 2019 年的水平有所增長，無論是中東、亞洲、北美還是歐洲，都略有不同。我很好奇這是否會導致售後市場銷售的典型地理組合發生任何變化？

No. I mean, first, we don't get great data by region for inventory and demand as it goes through distributors or through OEMs at times to the airlines. So I don't know if we've looked at it a few times to try to figure that out. I don't know that we're seeing anything significantly different when -- one region to the next that I would try to call it out and note it as material.

不。我的意思是，首先，我們無法獲得按地區劃分的庫存和需求的大量數據，因為這些數據有時會透過分銷商或原始設備製造商傳遞給航空公司。所以我不知道我們是否已經看過幾次來試圖弄清楚這一點。我不知道我們是否會看到任何顯著不同的情況——從一個區域到下一個區域，我會嘗試將其指出並將其記為材料。

Got it. And Kevin, just a follow-up for you. On the M&A side, a few of your recent deals have focused more on the testing equipment and services side. I'm just curious what's your postmortem is and how those deals are progressing and sort of what your interest is to continue building into those spaces?

知道了。凱文，我想對你進行後續跟進。在併購方面，你們最近的一些交易更集中在測試設備和服務方面。我只是好奇你的事後分析是什麼，這些交易進展如何，以及你對繼續建立這些領域的興趣是什麼？

Those -- the acquisitions, Calspan, was our first foray into that. And I would say that Calspan is running at or ahead of our acquisition model. So it's a successful acquisition to date. And we would continue to look favorably on testing, certification, instrumentation businesses. And that's why we looked at Raptor and why we will continue to look at that space.

這些收購 Calspan 是我們首次涉足這一領域。我想說的是，Calspan 的運行速度等於或領先於我們的收購模式。所以迄今為止這是一次成功的收購。我們將繼續看好測試、認證、儀器業務。這就是我們關注猛禽的原因，也是我們將繼續關注該領域的原因。

But our core is still components for -- that have aftermarket content, much like CPI, the largest acquisition we've done in the year was a traditional component business. And that will continue to be our focus. Some of these other pieces are interesting, and we spent time explaining them so that you understand how it fits into our disciplined acquisition strategy, which these other businesses clearly do.

但我們的核心仍然是擁有售後市場內容的零件，就像 CPI 一樣，我們今年完成的最大收購是傳統零件業務。這將繼續是我們的重點。其中一些其他部分很有趣，我們花了時間解釋它們，以便您了解它如何適合我們嚴格的收購策略，而這些其他業務顯然是這樣做的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And with that, I will conclude the Q&A session for today, and we'll turn the call back to Jamie Stemen for closing remarks.

謝謝。至此，我將結束今天的問答環節，我們將把電話轉回給傑米·斯特曼（Jamie Stemen）做總結發言。

Thanks all for joining us today. This concludes the call. We appreciate your time and have a good rest of your day. Thank you.

感謝大家今天加入我們。通話就此結束。我們感謝您的寶貴時間，祝福您有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

And thank you for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。您現在可以斷開連線。