Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the TD Bank Group Q2 2025 earnings conference call.

大家早安。歡迎參加道明銀行集團 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Brooke Hales, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ms. Hales.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Brooke Hales 女士。請繼續，Hales 女士。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to TD Bank Group's second-quarter 2025 results presentation. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Raymond Chun, the bank's CEO; followed by Leo Salom, President and CEO, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank; after which Kelvin Tran, the bank's CFO, will present our second quarter operating results; Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality. After which, we will invite questions from prequalified analysts and investors on the phone.

謝謝您，接線生。早安，歡迎參加道明銀行集團 2025 年第二季業績報告。今天的演講將以該銀行首席執行官 Raymond Chun 的演講開始；接下來是美國最便捷銀行道明銀行 (TD Bank) 總裁兼首席執行官 Leo Salom；之後，該銀行的首席財務官 Kelvin Tran 將介紹我們第二季度的經營業績；首席風險官 Ajai Bambawale 將對信貸質量發表評論。之後，我們將透過電話邀請預先合格的分析師和投資者提問。

Also present today to answer your questions are Sona Mehta, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking; Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking; Tim Wiggan, Group Head, Wholesale Banking and President and CEO, TD Securities; and Paul Clark, Senior Executive Vice President, Wealth Management.

今天出席並回答大家問題的還有加拿大個人銀行業務集團主管 Sona Mehta；芭芭拉·胡珀 (Barbara Hooper)，加拿大商業銀行集團主管；蒂姆·威根 (Tim Wiggan)，道明證券批發銀行業務集團主管兼總裁兼首席執行官；以及財富管理高級執行副總裁保羅·克拉克（Paul Clark）。

Please turn to slide 2. Our comments during this call may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially.

請翻到投影片 2。我們在本次電話會議中的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及假設並具有固有的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能存在重大差異。

I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. The bank believes that adjusted results provide readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Ray, Leo, and Kelvin will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks. Additional information about non-GAAP measures and material factors and assumptions is available on our Q2 2025 report to shareholders.

我還要提醒聽眾，該銀行使用非公認會計準則財務指標來得出調整後的結果。該銀行認為，調整後的結果可以讓讀者更了解管理階層如何看待該銀行的表現。Ray、Leo 和 Kelvin 將在他們的評論中提到調整後的結果。有關非公認會計準則衡量指標以及重要因素和假設的更多信息，請參閱我們向股東提交的 2025 年第二季度報告。

With that, let me turn the presentation over to Ray.

說完這些，讓我把演講交給雷。

Thank you, Brooke, and good morning, everyone. We had a strong quarter, and I'm looking forward to walking you through the details in a minute. Before we discuss that and share updates on our strategic review and AML remediation, I'd first like to comment on the current environment.

謝謝你，布魯克，大家早安。我們本季表現強勁，我期待在一分鐘內向您詳細介紹。在我們討論這個問題並分享我們的策略審查和反洗錢補救措施的最新進展之前，我想先評論一下當前的環境。

Despite a recent tariff de-escalation between the US and China that's temporary in nature, there continues to be a high degree of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty. This has made it difficult for businesses to make long-term decisions and created economic distortions such as inventory stockpiling and purchases being pulled forward to avoid tariffs. This fluid environment has also driven volatility in capital markets and created angst for some households.

儘管近期中美之間的關稅降級是暫時的，但宏觀經濟和政策的不確定性仍然很高。這使得企業難以做出長期決策，並造成了諸如庫存囤積和為避免關稅而提前採購等經濟扭曲。這種不穩定的環境也導致了資本市場的波動，並給一些家庭帶來了焦慮。

In Canada, housing activity has slowed and the job market has continued to soften with notable losses in trade exposed sectors. With the election in Canada now behind us, there's a new opportunity for bilateral discussions with the US. And I've been encouraged to see the new federal government working alongside the provinces on opportunities to create economic growth, including those that elimination of interprovincial trade barriers.

在加拿大，房地產活動放緩，就業市場持續疲軟，貿易相關產業遭受顯著損失。加拿大大選已經結束，與美國進行雙邊討論有了新的機會。我很高興看到新聯邦政府與各省合作，創造經濟成長的機會，包括消除省際貿易壁壘。

There are no quick fixes to the challenges our country is confronting. This is going to take time and considerable effort. As a major employer and participant in the economic growth in both Canada and the United States, TD has an important role to play. We stand ready to engage and work productively with governments in both countries.

我們國家面臨的挑戰沒有快速解決方案。這將需要時間和大量的努力。作為加拿大和美國經濟成長的主要雇主和參與者，TD 發揮著重要作用。我們隨時準備與兩國政府進行接觸並進行富有成效的合作。

Despite an uncertain external environment, our focus remains constant. We're staying close to our nearly 28 million clients, providing advice and supporting them through this period. Within TD, we will continue to prudently manage risk as we drive our businesses forward, ensuring we can be there for our clients as their needs evolve.

儘管外部環境不確定，但我們的關注點始終不變。我們與近 2800 萬客戶保持密切聯繫，為他們提供建議並支持他們度過這段時期。在道明內部，我們將繼續審慎地管理風險，推動業務向前發展，確保我們能夠滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。

With that, let's turn to the next slide. I'll start with an update on our strategic review. This quarter, we completed the sale of approximately USD9 billion on correspondent loans. We also communicated plans to wind down our US point-of-sale financing business, which services third-party retailers. This business is comprised of a series of bespoke arrangements with each retailer, which impacts its profitability and scalability. Exiting this business is accretive to US retail ROE and free up capacity to invest in a proprietary bank card business.

接下來，讓我們翻到下一張投影片。我先介紹一下我們的策略評估的最新情況。本季度，我們完成了約 90 億美元的代理貸款銷售。我們也傳達了逐步關閉為第三方零售商提供服務的美國銷售點融資業務的計劃。該業務由與每個零售商的一系列客製化安排組成，這會影響其盈利能力和可擴展性。退出這項業務將增加美國零售業的 ROE，並釋放出投資自營銀行卡業務的能力。

In addition, through the strategic review, we are identifying opportunities to innovate to drive efficiencies and operational excellence. We are structurally reducing costs across the bank by taking a disciplined look at our operations and processes to find opportunities to automate and to re-engineer them. Kelvin will provide more details on our restructuring program in his remarks.

此外，透過策略審查，我們正在尋找創新機會來提高效率和卓越營運。我們透過嚴格審查我們的營運和流程來尋找自動化和重新設計的機會，從結構上降低整個銀行的成本。凱爾文將在演講中提供有關我們重組計劃的更多細節。

These efforts will create capacity to accelerate digital and AI investments to upgrade capabilities and scale relationship banking. We are identifying growth opportunities and making good progress across each of our four pillars of our strategic review.

這些努力將創造加速數位和人工智慧投資的能力，以升級能力並擴大關係銀行業務。我們正在尋找成長機會，並在策略審查的四大支柱中取得良好進展。

TD will host an Investor Day on September 29 where we will look for -- where we look forward to presenting a clear direction for the bank's future and our refreshed medium-term financial targets.

道明銀行將於 9 月 29 日舉辦投資者日，屆時我們將尋求——我們期待為銀行的未來和我們更新的中期財務目標提出明確的方向。

Please turn to slide 4. In Q2, the bank delivered a strong quarter with earnings of $3.6 billion and EPS of $1.97. We saw robust trading and fee income in our markets driven businesses and volume growth year over year in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking.

請翻到幻燈片 4。第二季度，該銀行表現強勁，獲利 36 億美元，每股收益 1.97 美元。我們的市場驅動業務的交易和費用收入強勁，加拿大個人和商業銀行業務的交易量逐年增長。

Impaired PCLs decreased quarter over quarter, reflecting strong credit performance broadly across asset classes. And we added to our performing reserves for policy and trade uncertainty, taking a prudent approach with more than $0.5 billion in reserves added over the past two quarters. Ajai will share more details shortly in his remarks.

受損個人信貸損失準備金環比下降，反映出各類資產的信貸表現普遍強勁。我們也增加了應對政策和貿易不確定性的常備儲備，採取審慎的態度，在過去兩個季度增加了超過 5 億美元的儲備。阿賈伊將在演講中分享更多細節。

As of quarter end, the bank's CET1 ratio was 14.9%. We made good progress on our share buyback this quarter, repurchasing 30 million shares for a total of $2.5 billion. We still intend to deploy $8 billion of the proceeds from the Schwab share sale for our current NCIB. We have the capacity to execute the NCIB as planned while maintaining very strong capital levels in this uncertain environment.

截至季末，該銀行的CET1比率為14.9%。本季我們的股票回購工作取得了良好進展，共回購了 3,000 萬股，總額達 25 億美元。我們仍打算將嘉信理財股票出售所得中的 80 億美元投入我們目前的 NCIB。我們有能力按計劃執行 NCIB，同時在這種不確定的環境中保持非常強勁的資本水準。

Please turn to slide 5. This quarter, we saw strong execution across our business. The Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking segment delivered growth on both sides of the balance sheet. In RESL, we continue to enhance speed to decision and to provide tailored customer advice by referring more complex deals to our mobile mortgage specialists.

請翻到投影片 5。本季度，我們的業務執行情況十分出色。加拿大個人和商業銀行部門在資產負債表的兩邊都實現了成長。在 RESL，我們透過將更複雜的交易轉交給我們的行動抵押貸款專家來繼續提高決策速度並提供量身定制的客戶建議。

As you know, our single greatest opportunity is to deepen relationships with our more than 15 million customers in Canada. We are executing against that with continued strong referrals to the Business Bank and Wealth. In addition, the Personal Bank achieved record credit card penetration rates with new checking account customers.

如您所知，我們最大的機會是加深與加拿大 1500 多萬客戶的關係。我們正在按照這個目標繼續努力，繼續大力推廣商業銀行和財富銀行。此外，個人銀行透過新增支票帳戶客戶實現了創紀錄的信用卡普及率。

In the Business Bank, loans were up 6% year over year, reflecting growth across our Commercial business. In US retail, we demonstrated resilience and momentum with six consecutive quarters of consumer deposit growth and core loans up 2% year over year.

在商業銀行，貸款年增 6%，反映了我們商業業務的成長。在美國零售業，我們展現了韌性和發展勢頭，消費者存款連續六個季度增長，核心貸款年增 2%。

Our US Wealth business also has momentum. Total client assets were up 15% year over year with mass affluent client assets up 26% year over year. We continue to prioritize and execute on our AML remediation and have made significant progress on our US balance sheet restructuring. Leo will provide an update in his remarks.

我們的美國財富業務也發展勢頭強勁。總客戶資產年增15%，其中大眾富裕客戶資產年增26%。我們繼續優先考慮並執行反洗錢補救措施，並在美國資產負債表重組方面取得了重大進展。利奧將在他的演講中提供最新情況。

Wealth Management and Insurance had a strong quarter, reflecting our diversified business mix. TD Asset Management added $5.3 billion in net institutional assets, and our Advice business delivered strong net asset growth. We continue to innovate in TD Direct Investing, the only bank-owned brokerage in Canada to offer partial shares trading. We are seeing great momentum with an 83% increase in partial shares adoption by our Gen Z and millennial clients within the last six months.

財富管理和保險業務本季表現強勁，反映了我們多元化的業務組合。道明資產管理公司的淨機構資產增加了 53 億美元，我們的諮詢業務實現了強勁的淨資產成長。我們不斷創新道明直接投資 (TD Direct Investing)，這是加拿大唯一一家提供部分股票交易的銀行經紀公司。我們看到了強勁的發展勢頭，在過去六個月內，Z 世代和千禧世代客戶的部分股份採用率增加了 83%。

TD Insurance continued its digital transformation with over 46% of new sales this quarter, completed digitally from end to end as we build our position as the leading digital direct insurer in Canada.

道明保險 (TD Insurance) 持續數位轉型，本季新銷售額超過 46%，完全以數位化方式完成，我們正在打造加拿大領先的數位直接保險公司地位。

In Wholesale Banking, we continue to demonstrate the power of our broader platform with record revenue of $2.1 billion. This quarter, the Trading business benefited from market volatility. We are navigating challenges in the market while executing against our strategy.

在企業銀行業務方面，我們繼續展示更廣泛平台的實力，創下了 21 億美元的收入記錄。本季度，交易業務受惠於市場波動。我們在執行策略的同時，也在應對市場挑戰。

Across the bank, we are delivering for our clients. This quarter, both TD Auto Finance in Canada and US Retail in Florida were recognized by J.D. Power with the highest ranking in customer satisfaction.

我們全銀行都在為客戶提供服務。本季度，加拿大的TD汽車金融和佛羅裡達州的US Retail均被J.D. Power評為客戶滿意度最高。

Please turn to slide 6. We recognize that leadership in digital and mobile is critical. We are investing in these areas and enabling capabilities such as trusted data and AI. This quarter, we announced plans to open a new office in New York City for Layer 6, TD's AI research and development center.

請翻到幻燈片 6。我們認識到數位和行動領域的領導地位至關重要。我們正在投資這些領域並實現可信任數據和人工智慧等功能。本季度，我們宣布計劃在紐約市為 TD 的 AI 研發中心 Layer 6 開設新辦事處。

TD has over 800 AI patent filings. And according to Evident AI, our portfolio is in the top 10 amongst banks globally. Last quarter, I mentioned that we have deployed a generative AI virtual assistant in our contact centers to drive efficiency while enhancing the customer experience. We are now beginning to deploy this GenAI virtual assistant across our branch network, driving further colleague and customer experience and efficiency benefits.

TD 擁有超過 800 項 AI 專利申請。根據 Evident AI 的統計，我們的投資組合在全球銀行中排名前十。上個季度，我提到我們在聯絡中心部署了生成式人工智慧虛擬助手，以提高效率並增強客戶體驗。我們現在開始在我們的分支網路中部署這個 GenAI 虛擬助手，以進一步提升同事和客戶的體驗和效率。

This year, we launched the next AI enhancement in our fraud operation and insurance claims to enhance our detection of suspected fraudulent auto and residential claims. This helps improve our response time to customers of genuine claims and continues our development of AI and insurance, which has been heavily engaged in machine learning for over a decade. TD continues to innovate for our clients, colleagues, and communities.

今年，我們在詐欺操作和保險索賠方面推出了下一個人工智慧增強功能，以增強我們對疑似欺詐性汽車和住宅索賠的檢測。這有助於縮短我們對真實索賠客戶的回應時間，並繼續我們在人工智慧和保險領域的發展，十多年來，我們一直積極參與機器學習。TD 不斷為我們的客戶、同事和社區進行創新。

Please turn to slide 7. In March, we published our 2024 Sustainability Report, providing an update on our efforts to protect the bank while adapting business practices to meet changing market conditions and the evolving needs of our stakeholders.

請翻到幻燈片 7。今年 3 月，我們發布了 2024 年永續發展報告，介紹了我們在保護銀行的同時調整業務實踐以滿足不斷變化的市場條件和利益相關者不斷變化的需求的努力。

Before I turn it over to Leo, I want to thank our colleagues across the bank for their tremendous dedication and efforts. Together, we are writing the next chapter of this great institution story. We will continue to invest in our talent and our culture.

在將時間交給 Leo 之前，我想感謝我們銀行全體同事的巨大奉獻和努力。我們正在共同書寫這個偉大機構故事的下一篇章。我們將繼續投資我們的人才和文化。

With that, over to you, Leo.

接下來就交給你了，Leo。

Okay. Thank you, Ray, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. I am very pleased with the progress we've made on our US AML remediation, which, as we've said before, is our top priority. We're executing against our remediation plan with focus and purpose. And operationally, we continue to make enhancements to our transaction monitoring coverage and investigative practices.

好的。謝謝你，雷，大家早安。請翻到第 8 張投影片。我對我們在美國反洗錢整治方面取得的進展感到非常高興，正如我們之前所說，這是我們的首要任務。我們正在有重點、有目的地執行我們的補救計劃。在營運方面，我們持續加強交易監控覆蓋範圍和調查實務。

As we said we would do last quarter, we implemented the final round of planned scenarios in our transaction monitoring system. Work is progressing on the use of specialized AI to detect, isolate and automate our risk mitigation activities and teams are continuing to work on the implementation of the machine learning tools with these capabilities expected to come online next month.

正如我們上個季度所說的那樣，我們在交易監控系統中實施了最後一輪計畫場景。使用專門的人工智慧來檢測、隔離和自動化我們的風險緩解活動的工作正在進行中，團隊正在繼續致力於機器學習工具的實施，這些功能預計將於下個月上線。

In addition, we rolled out a streamlined workflow of our investigative practices, including the introduction of updated procedures for analyzing customer activity. These changes complement the updated procedures we introduced last quarter. It is important to note, we're also making progress with data staging in relation to the look backs.

此外，我們也推出了簡化的調查實務工作流程，包括引入分析客戶活動的更新程序。這些變化是對我們上個季度推出的更新程序的補充。值得注意的是，我們在回顧相關的資料分階段方面也取得了進展。

Finally, we are continuing to implement risk reduction measures across our program. For example, this quarter, we introduced further enhancements to our cash deposit requirements at TD stores. Collectively, these measures will help us manage the bank's financial crimes risk and coupled with our improved monitoring enable us to detect, escalate, and report potential activity of interest earlier and more effectively.

最後，我們將繼續在整個計劃中實施降低風險的措施。例如，本季我們進一步加強了 TD 商店的現金存款要求。總的來說，這些措施將幫助我們管理銀行的金融犯罪風險，再加上我們改進的監控，使我們能夠更早、更有效地發現、升級和報告潛在的相關活動。

While we still have work to do, we remain on track with our planned remediation activities and are building the foundational AML program that we need for the years ahead. We'll continue to provide updates every quarter.

雖然我們仍有工作要做，但我們仍在按計劃進行補救活動，並正在建立未來幾年所需的基礎反洗錢計劃。我們將繼續每季提供更新。

Please turn to slide 9. I'd also like to update -- provide an update on our balance sheet restructuring activities. You'll recall this effort has two critical objectives: first, to strictly comply with and maintain a buffer to the asset limitation; and second, to ensure that we can continue to serve our clients and communities as their needs evolve. We made meaningful progress against our objectives this quarter.

請翻到第 9 張投影片。我還想更新一下——提供有關我們資產負債表重組活動的最新情況。你會記得，這項工作有兩個關鍵目標：第一，嚴格遵守並保持資產限制的緩衝；其次，確保我們能夠隨著客戶和社區需求的變化而繼續為他們提供服務。本季我們在實現目標方面取得了有意義的進展。

As of March 31, the first reporting date for the asset limitation, our two-quarter average assets were approximately $405 billion versus the OCC's asset limitation of $434 billion. At the end of the fiscal quarter, total assets were $399 billion, reflecting the closing of the correspondent mortgage sale.

截至 3 月 31 日（資產限制的第一個報告日期），我們的兩個季度平均資產約為 4,050 億美元，而 OCC 的資產限制為 4,340 億美元。截至本財政季末，總資產為 3,990 億美元，反映了代理抵押貸款銷售的結束。

Since the end of the first -- of the fiscal quarter, we have also paid down an additional $7 billion of bank borrowings. We expect to further reduce our assets in the upcoming quarters using the proceeds from the loan sales, investment maturities, and normalized cash levels to pay down additional short-term borrowings.

自本財政季度第一季結束以來，我們還償還了額外的 70 億美元銀行借款。我們預計在未來幾季進一步減少資產，利用貸款銷售、投資到期和正常化現金水準的收益來償還額外的短期借款。

And as Ray mentioned, we communicated plans to gradually wind down the approximately $3 billion in our point-of-sale financing business, which services third-party retailers as part of our efforts to reduce non-scalable and niche portfolios that do not fit our focused strategy.

正如雷所提到的，我們傳達了逐步減少約 30 億美元銷售點融資業務的計劃，該業務為第三方零售商提供服務，這是我們減少不符合我們重點戰略的不可擴展和利基投資組合的努力的一部分。

I remain confident that we will largely complete the loan sales we identified last October by the end of the fiscal year and with the execution of our loan reductions and paydown of short-term borrowing, we expect to comfortably meet the 10% asset reduction we guided to in October.

我仍然相信，我們將在財政年度結束前基本完成去年 10 月確定的貸款出售，並且隨著貸款減少和短期借款償還的實施，我們預計可以輕鬆實現 10 月份指導的 10% 資產削減目標。

Turning to the investment portfolio rotation. We continue to expect to complete the investment portfolio repositioning no later than the first half of calendar 2025. To date, we have sold approximately $23 billion notional for an upfront loss of just under $1.3 billion pretax. The investment portfolio repositioning is expected to generate an NII benefit in fiscal 2025 at the upper end of the $300 million to $500 million pretax estimated range we provided in October.

轉向投資組合輪調。我們仍預期最遲將在 2025 年上半年完成投資組合的重新定位。到目前為止，我們已售出約 230 億美元的名目金額，前期損失略低於 13 億美元的稅前損失。投資組合重新定位預計將在 2025 財年產生 NII 收益，其金額將達到我們 10 月提供的 3 億至 5 億美元稅前估計範圍的上限。

Collectively, we expect these actions will enable us to improve return on equity through fiscal 2025 and into fiscal 2026.

總的來說，我們預計這些行動將使我們能夠在 2025 財年和 2026 財年提高股本回報率。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kelvin.

說完這些，我就把話題交給凱爾文。

Thank you, Leo. Please turn to slide 10. TD delivered a strong quarter. Total bank PTPP was up 5% year over year after removing the impact of the US Strategic Card portfolio, FX, and insurance service expenses.

謝謝你，Leo。請翻到第 10 張投影片。TD 本季業績表現強勁。剔除美國策略卡組合、外匯和保險服務費用的影響後，銀行 PTPP 總額年增 5%。

Revenue grew 9% year over year driven by higher trading related and fee income in our market-driven businesses, including fees from TD sale of Schwab shares and volumes in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking.

營收年增 9%，這得益於我們市場驅動型業務的交易相關收入和費用收入增加，其中包括道明出售嘉信理財股票的費用以及加拿大個人和商業銀行業務的交易量。

Expenses increased 12% year over year with approximately one quarter of the growth driven by variable compensation commensurate with higher revenues, foreign exchange, and the impact of the US Strategic Card Portfolio.

支出年增 12%，其中約四分之一的成長是由與更高的收入、外匯和美國策略卡組合的影響相稱的浮動薪酬所推動的。

Impaired PCLs declined quarter over quarter, reflecting strong credit performance. Performing PCLs increased quarter over quarter, reflecting policy and trade uncertainty.

受損個人信貸損失準備金環比下降，反映出強勁的信貸表現。執行PCL的業績環比成長，反映出政策和貿易的不確定性。

Please turn to slide 11. As Ray noted, we are undertaking a restructuring program to reduce structural costs and create capacity to invest, build the bank for the future. We incurred restructuring charges of $163 million pretax this quarter and expect to incur total restructuring charges of $600 million to $700 million pretax over the next several quarters.

請翻到第 11 張投影片。正如雷所指出的，我們正在實施一項重組計劃，以降低結構性成本並創造投資能力，建立面向未來的銀行。本季我們發生的重組費用為 1.63 億美元的稅前費用，預計未來幾季將發生總計 6 億至 7 億美元的稅前重組費用。

The restructuring program is expected to generate savings of approximately $100 million pretax in fiscal 2025 and annual run rate savings of $550 million to $650 million pretax. Cost savings will be driven by workforce and real estate optimization, asset write-offs, and business wind-downs and exits as part of the strategic review. We expect this will result in approximately 2% reduction to our workforce.

預計重組計畫將在 2025 財年節省約 1 億美元的稅前成本，每年節省 5.5 億至 6.5 億美元的稅前成本。作為策略審查的一部分，成本節約將透過勞動力和房地產優化、資產註銷以及業務關閉和退出來推動。我們預計這將導致我們的員工人數減少約 2%。

Whenever possible, we will look to achieve this through attrition, and we will redeploy talent in areas where we are accelerating our capabilities. Through this restructuring program and the strategic review more broadly, we are innovating to drive efficiency and structurally reduce the bank's cost base.

只要有可能，我們就會透過自然減員來實現這一目標，並將人才重新部署到我們正在加速提升能力的領域。透過這項重組計劃和更廣泛的策略審查，我們正在進行創新，以提高效率並從結構上降低銀行的成本基礎。

We expect fiscal 2025 expense growth assuming fiscal 2024 levels of variable compensation, FX and US Strategic Cards Portfolio to be at the upper end of the previously communicated 5% to 7% range, reflecting investments in governance and control and investment supporting business growth, net of expected productivity and restructuring savings.

我們預計，假設 2024 財年的浮動薪酬、外匯和美國戰略卡組合水準與 2025 財年持平，則費用增長將達到先前公佈的 5% 至 7% 區間的上限，這反映了對治理和控制的投資以及支持業務增長的投資，扣除預期的生產力和重組儲蓄。

Please turn to slide 12. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered continued volume growth on both sides of the balance sheet. Average loan volumes rose 4% year over year with 3% growth in Personal volumes and 6% growth in Business volume. This quarter, tariff uncertainty weighed on the Canadian housing market, and we saw slower purchase activity.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。加拿大個人和商業銀行業務在資產負債表的兩端均實現了持續成長。平均貸款額年增 4%，其中個人貸款額成長 3%，商業貸款額成長 6%。本季度，關稅不確定性對加拿大房地產市場帶來壓力，購買活動放緩。

In TDAF, we had record Q2 originations, which may reflect customers pulling forward auto purchases and anticipation of tariffs. Average deposits rose 5% year over year, reflecting 4% growth in personal deposits and 8% growth in business deposits. Net interest margin was 2.82%, up 1 basis point quarter over quarter, primarily driven by higher loan margins. As we look forward to Q3, we again expect NIM to be relatively stable. Expenses increased, reflecting higher technology spend and other operating expenses.

在 TDAF 中，我們第二季的發起量創下了紀錄，這可能反映了客戶提前購買汽車和對關稅的預期。平均存款年增 5%，其中個人存款成長 4%，企業存款成長 8%。淨利差為 2.82%，較上季上升 1 個基點，主要由於貸款利潤率上升。展望第三季度，我們再次預期 NIM 將相對穩定。費用增加，反映出技術支出和其他營運費用的增加。

Please turn to slide 13. US Retail demonstrated resilience and business momentum while executing against our balance sheet restructure. [For] loans grew 2% year over year. In key areas of focus, bankcard, home equity, middle market and small business, balances grew 11%, 9%, 8% and 6% year over year, respectively.

請翻到第 13 張投影片。美國零售業在執行資產負債表重組的同時，展現了韌性和業務動能。貸款較去年同期成長2%。在重點關注的銀行卡、房屋淨值、中端市場和小型企業領域，餘額分別較去年同期成長11%、9%、8%和6%。

As you know, we are focused on enhancing ROE in US retail. We are assessing relationship profitability across our loan portfolio. Net interest margin was 3.04%, up 18 basis points quarter over quarter, reflecting the impact of the US balance sheet restructuring activities, normalization of elevated liquidity levels, which positively impacted NIM by 11 basis points and higher deposit margins. As we look forward to Q3, we again expect NIM to deliver substantial expansion, reflecting the benefits from ongoing balance sheet restructuring activities and further normalization of elevated liquidity level.

如您所知，我們專注於提高美國零售業的 ROE。我們正在評估整個貸款組合的關係獲利能力。淨利差為 3.04%，環比上升 18 個基點，反映了美國資產負債表重組活動、高流動性水準正常化的影響，這對淨息差產生了 11 個基點的正面影響，並提高了存款保證金率。展望第三季度，我們再次預期淨利差將大幅擴張，這反映了正在進行的資產負債表重組活動和高流動性水準進一步正常化帶來的好處。

Expenses increased USD189 million or 13% year over year, reflecting higher governance and [control] investments, including cost of USD110 million for US BSA/AML remediation this quarter and higher employee-related expenses. We continue to expect US BSA/AML remediation and related governance and control investments of approximately USD500 million pretax in fiscal 2025. We expect similar investments in fiscal 2026.

支出年增 1.89 億美元，增幅 13%，反映出更高的治理和[控制]投資，包括本季度用於美國 BSA/AML 補救措施的 1.1 億美元成本以及更高的員工相關支出。我們繼續預計，2025 財年美國 BSA/AML 補救措施及相關治理和控制投資將達到約 5 億美元的稅前水準。我們預計 2026 財年會有類似的投資。

Please turn to slide 14. Across these diversified businesses, the Wealth Management and Insurance segment is firing on all cylinders. Wealth Management revenue was up [13%] year over year, with growth across fee-based revenue from higher markets level, transaction revenues and elevated trading activity in volatile markets, and net interest income from higher deposit volumes and margins. Insurance delivered gross written premium growth of 10% year over year.

請翻到第 14 張投影片。在這些多元化業務中，財富管理和保險部門正在全力發展。財富管理收入年增 [13%]，其中，來自市場水準提高的手續費收入、交易收入和動盪市場中交易活動的增加，以及來自存款量和保證金增加的淨利息收入均有所增長。保險業總承保保費年增 10%。

Expenses increased this quarter, reflecting higher level compensation, technology spend supporting business growth initiatives and employee-related expenses. Segment ROE remains very strong at nearly 47% and Wealth and Management's peer-leading ROE is driven by robust returns across all of our businesses.

本季支出增加，反映了更高的薪酬、支援業務成長計畫的技術支出以及員工相關支出。分部 ROE 仍然非常強勁，接近 47%，而財富和管理部門同行領先的 ROE 則受到我們所有業務的強勁回報的推動。

Please turn to slide 15. Wholesale Banking had strong performance despite increased market volatility and the decline in capital markets activity. Expenses increased, reflecting higher technology and front office expenses, along with investments in our growth platforms. We continue to execute on our strategy to be a leading integrated North American investment bank with global reach.

請翻到第 15 張投影片。儘管市場波動加劇、資本市場活動減少，企業銀行業務仍表現強勁。費用增加，反映了技術和前台費用的增加，以及對成長平台的投資。我們將繼續執行我們的策略，成為一家具有全球影響力的領先的北美綜合投資銀行。

Please turn to slide 16. Corporate net loss for the quarter was $161 million, a smaller loss than the same quarter last year, reflecting higher revenue from treasury and balance sheet activities, partially offset by higher net corporate expenses, which were primarily driven by higher governance and control costs.

請翻到第 16 張投影片。本季企業淨虧損為 1.61 億美元，虧損額比去年同期有所縮小，反映出財務和資產負債表活動的收入增加，但被企業淨支出增加（主要由於治理和控製成本增加）所部分抵消。

Please turn to slide 17. The common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 14.9%, up 177 basis points sequentially. Strong internal capital generation was offset by the increase in RWA, excluding the impact of FX. The Schwab share sale increased CET1 by 238 basis points. We repurchased 30 million common shares under our share buyback program this quarter, which reduced CET1 by 40 basis points.

請翻到第 17 張投影片。本季末，普通股一級資本適足率為 14.9%，較上季上升 177 個基點。強勁的內部資本產生被風險加權資產的增加所抵消，不包括外匯的影響。嘉信理財股票出售使普通股一級資本增加了 238 個基點。本季度，我們根據股票回購計畫回購了 3,000 萬股普通股，這使 CET1 降低了 40 個基點。

Our average LCR for the quarter was 141%. The bank remains comfortable that it can operate at more typical LCR levels. However, while actions have been taken to manage liquidity buffers down, the proceeds from the Schwab share sale, we continue to keep LCR elevated in the near term.

本季我們的平均流動性覆蓋率為 141%。該銀行仍然相信其可以在更典型的 LCR 水平上運作。然而，儘管已經採取措施來降低流動性緩衝，但從嘉信理財股票出售的收益來看，我們仍然會在短期內保持流動性覆蓋率的增加。

With that, Ajai, over to you.

好了，Ajai，交給你了。

Thank you, Kelvin, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 18. Gross impaired loan formations were 21 basis points, a decrease of 4 basis points of $400 million quarter over quarter. The decrease was recorded broadly across the Canadian and US Consumer and Business and Government Lending portfolios.

謝謝你，凱爾文，大家早安。請翻到第 18 張投影片。總減損貸款形成率為 21 個基點，較上一季減少 4 個基點，即 4 億美元。加拿大和美國的消費者、商業和政府貸款組合普遍出現下降。

Please turn to slide 19. Gross impaired loans decreased $587 million quarter over quarter to $4.87 billion or 51 basis points. The decrease was reflected in the Canadian Personal and Commercial, US Retail, and Wholesale segments, with the largest contribution from the Business and Government Lending Portfolios and a $197 million impact from foreign exchange.

請翻到第 19 張投影片。總減損貸款季減 5.87 億美元至 48.7 億美元，即 51 個基點。這一下降反映在加拿大個人和商業、美國零售和批發領域，其中商業和政府貸款組合的貢獻最大，外匯影響達 1.97 億美元。

Please turn to slide 20. We recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios both gross and net of the partner share of the US strategic called PCLs. We remind you that US Card PCL is recorded in the Corporate segment, are fully absorbed by our partners and do not impact the bank's net income.

請翻到第 20 張投影片。我們記得，我們​​的簡報報告了美國戰略合作夥伴份額（稱為 PCL）的總額和淨額的 PCL 比率。我們提醒您，US Card PCL 記錄在企業部門，完全由我們的合作夥伴吸收，不會影響銀行的淨收入。

The bank's provision for credit losses increased $129 million or 8 basis points quarter over quarter to 58 basis points. The increase is largely reflected in the Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking and Wholesale Banking segments.

該銀行的信貸損失準備金比上一季增加了 1.29 億美元，即 8 個基點，達到 58 個基點。這一成長主要反映在加拿大個人和商業銀行以及批發銀行業務領域。

Please turn to slide 21. The bank's impaired PCL was $946 million, a decrease of $270 million quarter over quarter, reflected across the Canadian and US Consumer and Commercial Lending portfolios. By asset class, the largest quarter over quarter decreases were in the US Cards portfolios related to seasonal trends, coupled with the impact of a prior quarter model update and the US Commercial Lending portfolio.

請翻到第 21 張投影片。該銀行的受損PCL為9.46億美元，季減2.7億美元，反映在加拿大和美國的消費者和商業貸款組合中。按資產類別劃分，環比降幅最大的是美國信用卡投資組合，這主要是由於季節性趨勢，以及上一季模型更新和美國商業貸款投資組合的影響。

Performing PCL was $395 million compared to a recovery of $4 million in the prior quarter. The current quarter performing provisions primarily relate to policy and trade uncertainty and were recorded in the Canadian Personal and Commercial, US Retail, Wholesale Banking and Corporate segments.

表現良好的 PCL 為 3.95 億美元，而上一季則恢復了 400 萬美元。本季的業績撥備主要與政策和貿易不確定性有關，並記錄在加拿大個人和商業、美國零售、批發銀行和企業部門。

Please turn to slide 22. The allowance for credit losses was $9.6 billion, a decrease of $9 million quarter over quarter due to a $231 million impact from foreign exchange and lower impaired allowance, largely offset by performing reserves in the Consumer and Business and Government Lending portfolios, related to policy and trade uncertainty and applied through overlays and an update to our macroeconomic forecast.

請翻到第 22 張投影片。信貸損失準備金為 96 億美元，環比減少 900 萬美元，原因是外匯影響了 2.31 億美元，且減值準備金減少，但這在很大程度上被消費者和企業及政府貸款組合中的正常儲備所抵消，這些儲備與政策和貿易不確定性更新，並通過疊加和我們的宏觀經濟預測來應用。

Please turn to slide 23. In light of recent events, we have provided additional disclosure regarding industry's most exposed to elevated policy and trade risk. These industries represent 9% of the bank's gross loans and acceptances. Though the ultimate credit impact will depend on a range of factors, including the magnitude and duration of tariffs and government stimulus. While the industries of focus abroad, exposure to borrowers most sensitive to these risks is small, representing less than 1% of the bank's gross loans. We will continue to work closely with our customers through these challenging conditions.

請翻到第 23 張投影片。鑑於最近發生的事件，我們對最容易受到政策和貿易風險影響的行業進行了額外披露。這些行業佔該銀行貸款和承兌匯票總額的 9%。但最終的信貸影響將取決於一系列因素，包括關稅和政府刺激措施的幅度和持續時間。雖然重點產業在國外，但對這些風險最敏感的借款人的曝險很小，僅佔該銀行總貸款的不到 1%。在這些充滿挑戰的條件下，我們將繼續與客戶密切合作。

Now in summary. The bank exhibited strong credit performance this quarter, evidenced by lower gross impaired loan formations, gross impaired loans and impaired PCLs. As a result of the ongoing policy and trade risks, we have reviewed our credit portfolios and bolstered our reserves in excess of $500 million over the past two quarters.

現在總結一下。本季度，該銀行信貸表現強勁，主要體現在總減損貸款形成量、總減損貸款和減損個人信貸資產的下降。由於持續存在的政策和貿易風險，我們審查了我們的信貸組合，並在過去兩個季度增加了超過 5 億美元的儲備金。

That being said, there are many potential scenarios that could play out that may impact the economic trajectory and credit performance, some of which could drive fiscal 2025 PCL results beyond the 45 to 55 basis points range I previously provided.

話雖如此，仍有許多潛在情況可能會影響經濟軌跡和信貸表現，其中一些情況可能會導致 2025 財年的 PCL 業績超出我之前提供的 45 至 55 個基點的範圍。

However, TD is well positioned to manage through this period, considering our prudent provisioning, broad diversification across products and geographies, our strong capital position and our through-the-cycle underwriting standards that have served us well through challenging conditions in the past.

然而，考慮到我們審慎的撥備、跨產品和跨地區的廣泛多元化、強大的資本狀況以及在過去充滿挑戰的條件下發揮了良好作用的全週期承保標準，道明銀行完全有能力度過這一時期。

With that, operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.

接線員，我們現在可以開始問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Lee, Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員指示） Matthew Lee，Canaccord Genuity。

I wanted to ask Leo one here. When I think about the repositioning of the US portfolio, you've talked a bit about $500 million in NII benefit in 2025. But the program could continue into the first half of 2026. So does that kind of imply that there's maybe a further couple of hundred million of NII benefit that could be felt from the repositioning in '26?

我想在這裡問 Leo 一個問題。當我考慮美國投資組合的重新定位時，您談到了 2025 年 5 億美元的 NII 收益。但該計劃可能會持續到2026年上半年。那麼這是否意味著，26 年的重新定位可能會為 NII 帶來進一步數億美元的收益？

So Matt, thanks for the question. As you know, the trade effectively takes a loss upfront and then obviously, you'll see the NI recapture associated with the higher rate structures on the investment bond portfolio over the next three years.

馬特，謝謝你的提問。如您所知，交易實際上會預先承擔損失，然後顯然，您將在未來三年內看到與投資債券組合中更高利率結構相關的 NI 回收。

So you should expect that next year, the number will be slightly higher than what we recorded this year to reflect the calendarization impact. And then -- and that will continue through year three and then thereafter, depending on market conditions, those investment bonds would reprice at market rates at that point in time.

因此，您應該預計明年的數字將略高於我們今年記錄的數字，以反映日曆化的影響。然後 — — 這將持續到第三年，然後，根據市場情況，這些投資債券將按照當時的市場利率重新定價。

And then we should be thinking about NIM as expanding in 2026 beyond 2025 based on the repositioning?

那麼，根據重新定位，我們應該考慮 NIM 在 2026 年超越 2025 年而擴大嗎？

Yeah. So maybe if I could just take a moment on there because I know that our NIM is moving. We saw an 18 basis point improvement in the quarter. There's a number of factors that are influencing NII right now. First, as Kelvin described, we are running down some of the excess liquidity that we had built up late last year.

是的。所以也許我可以花一點時間因為我知道我們的 NIM 正在移動。本季我們看到了 18 個基點的改善。目前有許多因素正在影響 NII。首先，正如凱爾文所描述的，我們正在消耗去年年底累積的部分過剩流動性。

Second, as you called out, the investment bond repositioning is starting to trickle through the P&L. And then obviously, the tractor on off rates right now represents a tailwind for the business. So we do expect that the NII trajectory over the next few quarters to be quite positive. And we do expect that NIM expansion for Q3 will be a substantial increase, mirroring what we saw in Q2.

其次，正如您所說，投資債券的重新定位已開始對損益表產生影響。顯然，目前的拖拉機起降率對業務來說是一個順風。因此，我們確實預計未來幾季的 NII 走勢將相當積極。我們確實預計第三季的 NIM 擴張將會大幅增加，與我們在第二季看到的情況相似。

I should say because for the second quarter, we did have one extraordinary item, which is we did change the amortization period for some of our deferred product acquisition costs. That was about a $46 million charge we took. We would not expect that to reoccur in Q3.

我應該說，因為對於第二季度，我們確實有一個非常項目，那就是我們確實改變了部分遞延產品採購成本的攤銷期。我們收取的費用約為 4600 萬美元。我們預計這種情況不會在第三季再次發生。

John Aiken, Jefferies.

約翰艾肯，傑富瑞。

Ray, I wanted to clarify something that I thought I heard in your prepared commentary. In context of the exit of the correspondent loans to the point of sale in the US, you mentioned that it was going -- the proceeds were going to be diverted into proprietary bank card operation. Did I get that correct? And I guess, has that been previously disclosed? Or is this a new initiative?

雷，我想澄清一下我在你的準備評論中聽到的一些事情。在代理貸款退出美國銷售點的背景下，您提到收益將轉入自營銀行卡業務。我理解得對嗎？我想，這件事之前已經披露過了嗎？或者這是一個新的舉措？

You're talking about the wind down of our -- what we call our RCS business, which is our third-party credit card business. So that's about a USD3 billion portfolio that we're going to be winding down. And then that will provide us capital that we can then redeploy to our proprietary credit card business that we've been building out organically for the last number of years.

您談到了我們的 RCS 業務（即第三方信用卡業務）的逐步結束。因此，我們將要逐步減少約 30 億美元的投資組合。這將為我們提供資本，然後我們可以將其重新部署到我們過去幾年一直在有機構建的專有信用卡業務中。

Fantastic. Sorry about the misperception on my part. And then Kelvin, in relation to the restructuring charge, again, I apologize if I missed this. But did you give us a breakdown in terms of which the segments will be more or less impacted by this?

極好的。抱歉，我的誤會了。然後是凱爾文，關於重組費用，如果我錯過了這一點，我再次表示歉意。但是，您是否能具體說明哪些細分市場會受到更大或更小的影響？

No. The -- it's Kelvin. The impact is pretty broad based across the bank. I can offer that in terms of nature, it's going to be on the workforce, real estate optimization, asset impairment, really about type decommissioning and then also a wind down of some businesses like Ray and Leo talked about earlier.

不。這是——開爾文。其影響對整個銀行來說都相當廣泛。我可以說，就性質而言，它將涉及勞動力​​、房地產優化、資產減值，實際上是關於類型退役，然後將涉及 Ray 和 Leo 之前談到的一些業務的結束。

Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

加布里埃爾·德尚 (Gabriel Dechaine)，國家銀行金融。

I just want to ask about your excess capital position. So if I look at where you are today, I factor in the amount of buybacks you're still committed to at current prices and then this restructuring charge. And then it leaves me with a pro forma ratio of about just under 14%.

我只是想詢問一下您的剩餘資本狀況。因此，如果我看一下您今天的狀況，我會考慮您仍承諾以當前價格進行的回購數量，然後再考慮重組費用。這樣一來，我的備考比率大約是略低於 14%。

So still a good amount that I think most investors and myself anyway look at is, well, that's the -- those are the funds that are still remaining from the Schwab sale that you said you're using some of that for internal investment. And if there's anything remaining, you could be increasing the buyback or buy back more stock than what you've announced already at some point in time.

所以我認為大多數投資者和我自己都會關注的一個相當大的數額是，嗯，這些是嘉信理財出售所剩餘的資金，您說您將使用其中一部分進行內部投資。如果還有剩餘，您可能會增加回購量，或在某個時間點回購比您已經宣布的更多的股票。

Just wondering what the current view is and what the potential is for another large buyback is macro climate certainly dicier? Maybe there's other initiative investment initiatives you have in mind? So maybe you can provide some clarity.

只是想知道目前的觀點是什麼，以及另一次大規模回購的可能性是什麼，宏觀氣候肯定更危險嗎？也許您也考慮過其他主動投資計畫？所以也許您可以提供一些澄清。

Gabe, I appreciate the question. Let me start by saying, as I said in my prepared comments, on the current NCIB, our commitment is still to execute the $8 billion NCIB buyback. And as we get through our strategic review, and as I stated at the Investor Day, we'll sort of lay out for you where we think we're going to deploy some of that capital.

加布，我很感謝你的提問。首先，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，對於當前的 NCIB，我們的承諾仍然是執行 80 億美元的 NCIB 回購。當我們完成策略評估時，正如我在投資者日所說的那樣，我們將為您規劃我們認為將要部署的部分資本的去向。

Some of that is certainly from -- we're seeing significant organic growth opportunities. And we're still looking at rightsizing some of the portfolios from a scale those businesses that may not be core to our business. And so we're looking at some of those opportunities.

其中一些肯定來自——我們看到了巨大的有機成長機會。我們仍在考慮從規模上調整部分投資組合，以調整那些可能不是我們核心業務的業務。因此，我們正在尋找其中的一些機會。

And at the end of all of that, we will assess the current market. I mean, these are uncertain times, and there certainly is value in being well capitalized as we think forward. But as we move through this uncertainty and as we get through our strategic review, if we still then feel that we have excess capital, as I've said before, then we then look at as another opportunity to do another buyback.

最後，我們將評估目前的市場。我的意思是，現在是不確定的時期，當我們展望未來時，充足的資本肯定是有價值的。但是，當我們克服這種不確定性並完成策略審查時，如果我們仍然覺得我們擁有過剩的資本，正如我之前所說的那樣，那麼我們就會將其視為再次進行回購的另一個機會。

So there could be more costs associated with like the -- those funds shouldn't be automatically assumed to be -- there's a big buyback coming in, there's more investment required, right?

因此可能會有更多相關成本——這些資金不應被自動視為——即將進行大規模回購，需要更多投資，對嗎？

Yes. I think that's part of our strategic review. We're definitely be looking at how we deploy some of that capital, and then we'll assess the opportunity for a buyback later in the year and sort of closer to next year.

是的。我認為這是我們策略評估的一部分。我們肯定會研究如何部署部分資本，然後我們將評估今年稍後以及明年左右回購的機會。

Okay. Thanks for that. And then on the bond portfolio repositioning, I think I've heard you talk about it in the past like it was going to be done by the end of this quarter or maybe I misunderstood, but we're roughly halfway through, should be done by the midpoint of the calendar year.

好的。謝謝。然後關於債券投資組合重新定位，我想我以前聽過你談論過這個問題，好像它會在本季度末完成，或者也許我誤解了，但我們大約已經完成了一半，應該在日曆年的中點完成。

That's fine. I'm just looking at the guidance on the NII uplift. You're still talking about a USD300 million to USD500 million NII uplift. That's not an annualized figure. That's an actual impact on this fiscal year, correct? And I guess that's more successful reinvestment. Is that basically the story?

沒關係。我只是在查看有關 NII 提升的指導。您仍在談論 3 億美元至 5 億美元的 NII 提升。這不是年化數字。這對本財政年度有實際影響，對嗎？我認為這是更成功的再投資。故事基本就是這樣嗎？

Yeah, good morning. It's Leo. Yeah, the short answer. We are virtually complete the actual investment bond portfolio. We had indicated we'd be done by the end of the calendar. I think we'll be done virtually over the next few days and weeks.

是的，早安。是利奧。是的，簡短的回答。我們實際上已經完成了實際投資債券組合。我們曾表示我們將在日曆結束前完成。我認為我們將在接下來的幾天和幾週內完成這項工作。

So I'm pleased on where we are with regards to the work market have been constructive and so we were able to complete it a little bit ahead of schedule. Now with regard to the impact, what we have indicated, and Kelvin mentioned it in his prepared remarks, we had given back in October, a range of $300 million to $500 million, and we can confirm to you right now that it will be on the upper end of that range. That is an in-year 2025.

因此，我很高興看到我們在工作市場方面取得了建設性進展，因此我們能夠提前完成它。現在關於影響，我們已經指出，並且凱爾文在他的準備好的發言中也提到了這一點，我們在十月份已經給出了 3 億到 5 億美元的範圍，我們現在可以向你們確認，它將處於這個範圍的上限。那是在 2025 年。

Yeah. Okay. Okay. Great. So that was -- and then just sneak another one in there. The corporate NII, a big jump up there. You mentioned treasury activities. And is that -- is there any unusual drivers there? Or is that some sort of new run rate?

是的。好的。好的。偉大的。就是這樣——然後偷偷地再放一個進去。企業 NII 有了很大的飛躍。您提到了財務活動。那裡有沒有什麼不尋常的司機？還是這是某種新的運行率？

Hi. It's Kelvin. That's right. The treasury activity that we're mentioning relates to the investment from the proceeds of the Schwab share sale. We sold those shares we had, cash coming in, and those are invested, generating higher NII in the corporate segment. And then you would expect that NII to come down over time as we redeploy that cash to buy back shares.

你好。是開爾文。這是正確的。我們提到的財務活動與嘉信理財股票出售所得的投資有關。我們出售了所持有的股票，獲得了現金，並將其進行投資，從而為企業部門產生了更高的 NII。然後，隨著我們重新部署現金來回購股票，您可以預期 NII 會隨著時間的推移而下降。

Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets.

道格楊 (Doug Young)，德斯雅爾丹資本市場 (Desjardins Capital Markets)。

Just wanted to clarify one thing, Ray or Leo. Just on the business exit, the point-of-sale business exit, you're talking about the target credit card books and the other retail or credit card books. Just -- do I have that right? Or do I have that wrong?

只是想澄清一件事，Ray 還是 Leo。僅在業務退出、銷售點業務退出方面，您談論的是目標信用卡帳簿和其他零售或信用卡帳簿。只是──我有這個權利嗎？還是我錯了？

No, Doug. Let me just clarify that. There are three businesses in our overall cards stable. One is our Proprietary Bank Card business, which we've indicated is core. And we've done a number of things. Happy to elaborate a little bit more there.

不，道格。讓我澄清一下。我們的整體卡穩定中有三項業務。一是我們的自營銀行卡業務，我們已經指出這是核心業務。我們已經做了很多事情。很高興能在這裡進一步詳細說明。

Second, our co-branded card offering, and we have two critical partners, Nordstrom, Target. Those remain strategic. We're very pleased with the relationship we have with both firms. And then there's this point-of-sale financing business or what we have historically referred to as our Retail Card Services business.

第二，我們提供聯名卡，我們有兩個重要的合作夥伴，Nordstrom 和 Target。這些仍然是戰略性的。我們對與兩家公司的關係感到非常滿意。然後還有銷售點融資業務，或是我們過去所說的零售卡服務業務。

And the challenge with that business, despite the fact we have very strong relationships with some of the top retailers across the country, that business does not scale quite as well. And when we were looking at what was going to be required to transform that business, it was going to be consumptive of significant investment resources.

該業務面臨的挑戰是，儘管我們與全國一些頂級零售商建立了非常牢固的關係，但該業務的擴展性並不那麼好。當我們考慮需要採取什麼措施來轉變該業務時，我們發現這將會消耗大量的投資資源。

And at a time, we're really thinking through where do we want to invest capital for the greatest return. As Ray indicated, we felt that it was more important to be able to invest in our core Proprietary Cards business. So just to be clear, Proprietary Cards and our co-branded cards remain very much core and strategic -- long-term strategic priority for us.

同時，我們也在認真思考該將資本投資在何處才能獲得最大的回報。正如雷所指出的，我們認為能夠投資於我們的核心專有卡業務更為重要。因此需要明確的是，專有卡和聯名卡仍然是我們的核心和策略重點——也是我們的長期策略重點。

Okay. That's clear. And then one other, can you talk about any other businesses that you would be thinking from a wind-down perspective? And I would assume it's not just the US, this would be across all of your different areas. But is there anything else that you would highlight in terms of business exits or wind down?

好的。這很清楚。另外，您能談談從清盤角度考慮的其他業務嗎？我認為這不僅發生在美國，還發生在所有不同地區。但是，在業務退出或關閉方面，您還有什麼需要強調的嗎？

I would say not on this call, but we certainly are looking at all of our options and going through all of our product services and businesses. And some of that we will share as we get to the Q3 call and then certainly, we'll have more to share as we get to Investor Day.

我想說的是，在這次電話會議上我們不會這麼做，但我們肯定會考慮所有的選擇，並仔細研究我們所有的產品服務和業務。我們將在第三季電話會議上分享其中的一些信息，當然，在投資者日到來時，我們將有更多資訊分享。

Fair enough. I figured I'd try. And then just maybe lastly, the Canadian banking, it seemed like there was a sequential decent drop in noninterest income. Maybe I've got that wrong. But is there anything in particular that went through in the Canadian banking on the revenue side that was abnormal? Or what would have caused the sequential decline in the non-interest income line?

很公平。我想我會嘗試一下。最後，也許就加拿大銀行業而言，非利息收入似乎連續大幅下降。也許我理解錯了。但是加拿大銀行業在收入方面是否出現了什麼特別的異常？或者說，什麼原因導致了非利息收入的持續下降？

Doug, it's Sona. I'll take that. Sequentially, it would have been three less days sequentially and on a year-over-year basis. Also, you might recall we had a leap year last year. So there was one fewer day effectively this Q2. That's about a 1% impact to revenue on a Q2 year-over-year basis or $40 million. Overall, the business fundamentals for CAD P&C are solid.

道格，我是索娜。我會接受的。與上一季和去年同期相比，這一數字都將減少三天。另外，您可能還記得去年是閏年。因此，第二季度實際上少了一天。這對第二季的營收影響約為 1%，即 4,000 萬美元。整體而言，中非財產險的業務基礎穩固。

And beyond the NII piece on the other income, there were a collection of smaller Q2 impacts. I can give you a couple of examples. We would have seen moderated foreign currency spend, both on the debit and credit side as consumers had a little more caution, especially with cross-border purchases.

除了國家資訊基礎設施對其他收入的影響外，第二季還產生了一系列較小的影響。我可以舉幾個例子給你聽。我們會看到，無論是藉記卡還是信用卡，外幣支出都會有所放緩，因為消費者變得更加謹慎，尤其是在跨國購買方面。

We saw some lower merchant acquiring revenue in the business bank and some small timing items. So no one big thing on the other income side for Q2, but rather a collection of smaller things. So really, I'd say a few factors, the biggest is days in leap year.

我們發現商業銀行的商家收單收入有所下降，有些小額計時專案的收入也有所下降。因此，第二季的收入方面沒有出現重大變化，而是一系列較小的變化。所以實際上，我想說有幾個因素，其中最大的因素是閏年的日子。

But I would say as we look ahead, we're encouraged by the late Q2 volume momentum. We read that as a positive sign for Q3 and we're expecting quarter-over-quarter NIM stability, as Kelvin had noted.

但我想說，展望未來，我們對第二季末的銷售勢頭感到鼓舞。我們認為這是第三季度的一個積極信號，並且我們預計淨利息收益率將環比保持穩定，正如 Kelvin 所指出的那樣。

So overall, we're feeling confident heading into Q3.

總體而言，我們對進入第三季充滿信心。

Paul Holden, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的保羅霍爾頓 (Paul Holden)。

Want to get a better understanding of what drove the sequential decline in impaired PCLs in Canadian P&C banking, like listening to Ray's opening remarks regarding the macro backdrop, which I think makes sense would suggest sort of higher impaired PCLs, but obviously, we saw it lower. So just wondering what drove that and if there's anything we can take away from that trend in terms of forward expectations?

想要更了解導致加拿大財產和意外傷害銀行受損個人殘疾保險金額連續下降的原因，例如聽聽雷關於宏觀背景的開場白，我認為這是有道理的，這表明受損個人殘疾保險金額有所增加，但顯然，我們看到它有所下降。所以我只是想知道是什麼推動了這個趨勢，以及我們是否可以從這個趨勢中得出任何關於未來預期的結論？

Well, thanks, Paul. It's Ajai. Let me give you an overview of what's happening on impaired PCLs, and I'll go to Canadian P&C as well. So as I said in my prepared remarks, impaired PCLs, they're down substantially $270 million. We've seen it in Canadian P&C. The numbers in US retail are quite big corporate segment as well. Numbers went up slightly for Wholesale.

好吧，謝謝，保羅。是阿賈伊。讓我向您概述一下受損 PCL 的情況，然後我也會去加拿大 P&C。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，受損的PCL大幅下降了2.7億美元。我們在加拿大的財產與意外險 (P&C) 中也看到過這種情況。美國零售業的數字也是相當大的企業部門。批發業務的數字略有上升。

If I look at Canadian P&C, the numbers are down across asset classes. So RESL numbers are down. Auto numbers are down. Cards numbers are down, and Commercial numbers are down. They are not large dollars, but I'd call them quite symbolic because it's really telling us that if you keep this tariff issue aside, we were really seeing peak PCL and good quality. And I think the fact that rates have come down have helped borrowers.

如果我看一下加拿大的財產和意外保險，各資產類別的數字都在下降。因此 RESL 數量下降了。汽車數量下降。卡片數量下降，商業數量也下降。雖然金額不大，但我認為它們很有像徵意義，因為它告訴我們，如果不考慮關稅問題，我們確實會看到 PCL 達到峰值並且質量良好。我認為利率下降對借款人有幫助。

And then if I turn to US Retail, again, the number is down there quite a bit. Cards is a big contributor. But as I said in my prepared remarks, there are two factors there. One is seasonality. And the second is we put a model update in the last quarter. So quarter over quarter, there is a decline. But there are other asset classes that have come down. So for example, the Commercial numbers in the US are down a fair bit.

然後，如果我轉向美國零售業，那麼這個數字又下降了不少。卡片是一大貢獻者。但正如我在準備好的發言中所說，這裡有兩個因素。一是季節性。第二，我們在上個季度對模型進行了更新。因此，季度環比來看，出現了下降。但其他資產類別卻出現下跌。例如，美國的商業數據下降了不少。

Auto is down, but part of Auto is seasonality, but RESL and other parts of other consumers are also down. So this is not just a one-off. Yes, there's seasonality and this model issue is certainly a factor and a contributor. But I think on a broader basis, we're seeing good credit quality.

汽車銷量下降，但汽車銷售的一部分是季節性的，但 RESL 和其他消費者的其他部分銷售也下降了。所以這不僅僅是一次性事件。是的，存在季節性，而且這個模型問題肯定是一個因素和一個促成因素。但我認為，從更廣泛的角度來看，我們看到了良好的信用品質。

And then just finally on Wholesale. Wholesale numbers went up a little bit. It's $28 million. And that's because we took some incremental PCL for three existing borrowers in telco, cable, media, power and utility and [Cree] office. And we did have two impairments there as well in forestry. So that's the overall picture on impaired PCL. And I do view it as quite a positive development.

最後就是批發了。批發數量略有上升。是2800萬美元。這是因為我們為電信、有線電視、媒體、電力和公用事業以及 [Cree] 辦公室這三個現有借款人提供了一些增量 PCL。我們在林業方面也確實存在兩方面的損害。這就是受損 PCL 的整體情況。我確實認為這是一個相當積極的發展。

Okay. Okay. Second question is with respect to the cost restructuring. And what I'm really going to try and get at is sort of roughly what proportion could we expect to benefit bottom line, i.e., operating efficiency? And one of the reasons I asked just looking through some of the numbers in the sub-pack, I've seen Canadian P&C, FTE year over year is down roughly 6%.

好的。好的。第二個問題是關於成本重組。我真正想要嘗試弄清楚的是，我們預期能夠獲得多大比例的利潤，也就是營運效率？我提出這個問題的原因之一是，透過查看子包中的某些數字，我發現加拿大的 P&C 保險 FTE 年比下降了約 6%。

So you've had significant headcount reduction, but expense is still up 5%. So obviously, the compensation of expenses is changing. So again, I think it just raises the importance of the question, how much of the cost restructuring gets redeployed into other initiatives, investments, and how much of it has dropped through to improved efficiency?

因此，你們大幅削減了員工人數，但開支仍上漲了 5%。因此顯然，費用補償正在改變。所以，我認為這再次凸顯了這個問題的重要性：成本重組中有多少被重新部署到其他計畫和投資中，又有多少被用來提高效率？

It's Kelvin. I'll take that. Yes. So we see significant opportunities to continue to invest in the business to drive future growth. And one area, as you would expect, is on the digital AI and technology front. And so that spend does not always translate into specific FTEs, but those are investments that are important investment for us.

是開爾文。我會接受的。是的。因此，我們看到了繼續投資該業務以推動未來成長的重大機會。正如您所料，其中一個領域是數位人工智慧和技術前沿。因此，支出並不總是轉化為具體的全職當量 (FTE)，但這些投資對我們來說是重要的投資。

Okay. So if I understand the answer then that most of it gets redeployed into investments into the business?

好的。所以如果我理解正確的話，那麼其中大部分資金都會重新部署到業務投資中嗎？

Correct. That's correct.

正確的。沒錯。

Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets.

Sohrab Movahedi，BMO 資本市場。

Okay. Maybe if I can just start off with Leo. I mean, Leo, obviously, lots of good work getting done, lots of moving parts. In the first half of the year in US dollars, US Retail has done around $1.2 billion. What do you think the second half of the year will be from an earnings contribution perspective?

好的。也許我可以從 Leo 開始。我的意思是，Leo，顯然，有很多出色的工作要做，有很多活動部件要做。以美元計算，今年上半年美國零售額約 12 億美元。從獲利貢獻角度來看，您認為下半年將會如何？

Good to talk to you. We're not going to provide a guidance at this point, but maybe if I can give you the moving parts sort of -- generally speaking, we're constructive. We're very positive about what the second half will look like. And what's driving that is, one, as I indicated before, I do think we will have an eye on `tailwinds based on the factors that I described before, that being less excess liquidity, the investment bond repositioning of the tractor on off rates. All those things will give us a tailwind as we think about the back end of the year.

很高興和你談話。我們目前不會提供指導，但也許我可以給你一些活動部分——一般來說，我們是建設性的。我們對下半年的情況非常樂觀。推動這一進程的因素是，首先，正如我之前指出的，我確實認為我們將關注基於我之前描述的因素的“順風”，即減少過剩流動性，投資債券重新定位拖拉機的利率。當我們考慮到年底的時候，所有這些事情都會為我們帶來順風。

I do think that from a fee line, another income perspective, I mean, we saw in the quarter, strong growth in our Wealth business, continued work with TD Cowen and our Commercial Banking business on the lending fees line and sustained growth in our retail consumer retail deposit franchise, which will translate into service fees.

我確實認為，從費用線、另一個收入角度來看，我的意思是，我們在本季度看到了財富業務的強勁增長，與 TD Cowen 和商業銀行業務在貸款費用線上的持續合作，以及零售消費者零售存款特許經營權的持續增長，這些都將轉化為服務費。

So you put those things together. And I think from a revenue standpoint, we would expect revenues to be sustained and strong. From a cost standpoint, just quickly, I would say we would expect a moderation in the rate of growth in expenses in the second half. And that reflects a number of things. One is the year-on-year financial shape, but also some of the work that we're doing from a productivity standpoint to absorb some of the governance and control that activity.

所以你把這些東西放在一起。我認為從收入的角度來看，我們預計收入將持續且強勁。從成本角度來看，我想說，我們預計下半年支出成長率將會放緩。這反映出了很多事情。一方面是同比財務狀況，另一方面是我們從生產力角度所做的一些工作，以吸收一些治理並控制這些活動。

So I think we remain -- while expenses related to AML will be slightly higher based on our spend pattern for the first half of the year, I think generally speaking, we'll see a moderation in the rate of growth.

因此我認為我們仍然會——雖然根據我們上半年的支出模式，與反洗錢相關的費用會略高一些，但我認為總體而言，我們會看到增長率有所放緩。

And you heard Ajai talk about where we are from an overall health of the credit portfolio itself. So you put those things together -- and we are feeling optimistic about what the second half of the year is going to be. And the one thing that we have been -- and Ray has been very clear about this, I think I've mentioned it as well, is we're really focused on improving the return on equity profile quarter on quarter through this year and into next year.

您聽到了阿賈伊談論我們的信貸組合本身的整體健康狀況。所以，把這些因素綜合起來，我們對今年下半年的前景感到樂觀。我們一直在做的一件事——雷對此非常清楚，我想我也提到過，就是我們真正專注於提高今年和明年的股本回報率。

As we think about the Investor Day -- I think we'll provide a little bit more guidance as to firming up what that objective looks like. But long-winded way of saying, I think we feel very positive about the back end of the year.

當我們考慮投資者日時——我認為我們將提供更多指導來確定該目標。但長話短說，我認為我們對今年年底的情況非常樂觀。

Okay. That's really helpful. And if I can just sneak one more in for Ajai. I mean, I think, Ajai, you said tariffs aside, everything is fine actually. But if you think about the complex environment, the tariffs, all the puts and takes, where do you think you will actually see deterioration? Will it be in the, I'll call it, the business and corporate lending stuff? Or do you think it will be in the consumer stuff?

好的。這真的很有幫助。如果我能再偷偷給阿賈伊一個的話。我的意思是，阿賈伊，我認為，你所說的除了關稅之外，實際上一切都很好。但如果你考慮到複雜的環境、關稅、所有的得失，你認為哪些方面實際上會惡化？它會涉及我所說的商業和企業貸款業務嗎？或者您認為它會出現在消費品中？

I think you could see it actually in both because if the macro deteriorates, you will see it in consumer. And the way we built our reserves, we have built both for consumer and business and government lending. I do think, and we have built the reserves that way that there could be a bigger impact on non-retail. And most of this $500 million that we're talking about is actually being built in business and government. And what we did is we actually went and looked first at the industries that were exposed to tariffs, okay?

我認為你實際上可以在兩者中看到它，因為如果宏觀經濟惡化，你會在消費者身上看到它。我們建立儲備的方式是，既用於消費者，也用於企業和政府貸款。我確實認為，我們以這種方式建立儲備可能會對非零售業產生更大的影響。而我們談論的這 5 億美元中的大部分實際上是在企業和政府中投入的。我們所做的是，我們實際上首先去研究了受到關稅影響的行業，好嗎？

That's the 9% number that we have disclosed. After that, we went and looked on a more narrow basis saying, what out of these borrowers are most sensitive to tariffs. And -- but we look broadly at the financial impact, again, across the 9%, not just a smaller population, we looked at the ratings migration that could occur. And based on that ratings migration, we built our results.

這就是我們揭露的9%的數字。之後，我們從更狹隘的角度進行研究，看看這些借款人中哪些人對關稅最為敏感。並且 — — 但我們廣泛地看待財務影響，再次強調，是針對 9% 的人，而不僅僅是較小群體，我們研究了可能發生的評級遷移。根據評級遷移，我們得出了結果。

So again, this $500 million, a big part of it is business and government, but there is some for consumer because if the macro deteriorates, I think you should expect there will be impact on the consumer as well.

所以，這 5 億美元，很大一部分是企業和政府的，但也有一些是給消費者的，因為如果宏觀經濟惡化，我認為你應該預料到消費者也會受到影響。

Okay. And so was this equity markets write-down, equity investment portfolio markdowns you talked about, was that -- would you adopt that as tariff related as well? Is it Wholesale Banking?

好的。那麼，您談到的股票市場減記、股票投資組合減價，您是否也會將其視為與關稅相關的措施？它是批發銀行業務嗎？

Yeah. It's Tim Wiggan. So I would attribute that to our strategic portfolio, mark-to-market on our strategic portfolio, which would correlate more to index declines within quarter. And so if you see a normalization quarter over quarter in the S&P, that can reverse. So it was a factor, but it was a mark-to-market event.

是的。我是提姆·威根。因此，我將其歸因於我們的策略性投資組合，即策略性投資組合的市價，這與季度內指數的下跌更加相關。因此，如果你看到標準普爾指數逐季恢復正常，那麼這種情況可能會逆轉。所以這是一個因素，但它是一個以市價計價的事件。

Mike Rizvanovic, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Mike Rizvanovic。

Question for Leo. Just wanted to talk a little bit about the AML spend. And it looks like -- I think this is new guidance, correct me if I'm wrong, but the $500 million persisting in 2026. And I guess I was under the impression, I think a lot of investors were that, that number could potentially fall off at some point. So I'm not trying to ask for 2027 guidance, but is that still the dynamic where you do expect at some point, these expenses will fall off to some extent? Or is it more of a perpetual sort of run rate for AML?

問 Leo 一個問題。只是想談談反洗錢支出。看起來——我認為這是新的指導，如果我錯了請糾正我，但這 5 億美元將持續到 2026 年。我想，我的印像是，很多投資人都認為，這個數字在某個時候可能會下降。所以我並不是想詢問 2027 年的指導，但您是否仍然預計在某個時候這些費用會有所下降？或者它更像是 AML 的一種永久運行率？

Let me answer that by first saying that we're comfortable with the guidance that we provided for 2025. So in other words, we do believe that we will operate within the $500 million guidance that we provided. We spent between the first and second quarter about $196 million. We'll see a slight uptick as we go into the meat of our remediation delivery programs, but I feel comfortable with that guidance.

首先我要回答的是，我們對我們為 2025 年提供的指導感到滿意。換句話說，我們確實相信我們將按照我們提供的 5 億美元指導額度運作。我們在第一季和第二季之間花費了大約 1.96 億美元。當我們深入實施補救措施實施計劃時，我們會看到略微的上升，但我對這項指導感到滿意。

What we did is we wanted to give the Street a sense of what 2026 -- look like. I'd say right now, we believe that the spend will be similar. The composition of the spend might change a little bit. It might be a little less remediation, more validation work, more look backs, monitor costs, et cetera. So the composition might change, but we think the overall spend level is going to be similar.

我們所做的就是想讓華爾街了解 2026 年會是什麼樣子。我想說的是，現在我們相信支出將是相似的。支出的組成可能會有一點變化。可能需要少一點補救，多一點驗證工作，多一點回顧，多一點監控成本等等。因此，組成可能會發生變化，但我們認為總體支出水準將保持不變。

But then I wouldn't want to speculate on '27, '28, but I feel like the program is moving. We're actually making good progress on the remediation plan. We're hitting the milestones. We're tracking well. So I feel positive about some of the expense guidance that we've already provided.

但我不想對 27 年、28 年做出猜測，但我覺得該計劃正在取得進展。我們的補救計劃實際上取得了良好進展。我們正在實現里程碑。我們跟踪得很好。因此，我對我們已經提供的一些費用指導感到樂觀。

Okay. So no color. You can't really provide any color on potentially drawing that to some extent, lower at some point in the future?

好的。所以沒有顏色。您真的不能提供任何關於未來某個時間點可能在某種程度上降低這一水平的說明嗎？

Well, there's no question as we start thinking about those outer years. I would expect that the raw remediation program management expenses that we're incurring today will fall off. We could have a slight uptick in some of our run costs. But net-net, there will be a decline at some point in the future.

好吧，當我們開始思考那些未來歲月時，毫無疑問。我預計我們今天承擔的原始補救計劃管理費用將會下降。我們的部分營運成本可能會略有上升。但總體而言，未來某個時候將會下降。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe a quick one for Sona. Just on the Mortgage business in Canada. It does look like TD saw a bit of a decline sequentially. And I think there has been quite a bit of underperformance versus most of your peers just in terms of your RESL balances in the [KPC] segment. Can you help me understand what's driving that?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後也許對 Sona 來說是一個快速的動作。僅討論加拿大的抵押貸款業務。看起來 TD 確實出現了連續的下滑。我認為，僅就 [KPC] 領域的 RESL 餘額而言，與大多數同行相比，您的表現相當差。你能幫助我理解造成這種情況的原因嗎？

I was sort of under the impression that with the big push from the mortgage mobile specialist, sorry, that you probably could see at least market level growth and maybe even some outperformance on some of those initiatives. But I'm just a little bit confused as to why you would be underperforming just given some of those new distribution channels that you sort of introduced the last couple of years?

我有點覺得，在抵押貸款移動專家的大力推動下，抱歉，你可能至少可以看到市場水平的成長，甚至可能看到其中一些舉措的優異表現。但我有點困惑，為什麼你們在過去幾年裡引入了一些新的分銷管道，但業績卻表現不佳？

Yeah, Mike. This is Sona. Thanks for the question. So maybe I'll just start just briefly on the macro context. We've clearly seeing buyers sitting waiting a little bit on the sidelines.

是的，麥克。這是索娜。謝謝你的提問。因此我可能只是簡單地從宏觀背景開始講一下。我們清楚看到買家在場邊等待。

We're seeing inventory buildup, I think, we're up to five months of inventory. And I think each of the last three months of [Cree Housing] sales were in the range of 9% to 10% lower on a year-over-year basis. So it's certainly a different spot than where we were in early Q1.

我們看到庫存增加，我認為我們的庫存已經達到了五個月的量。我認為 [Cree Housing] 過去三個月的銷售額比去年同期分別下降了 9% 到 10%。因此，這肯定與我們第一季初的情況不同。

In early Q1, we were gearing up for a strong spring just given the natural supportive rate environment. But uncertainty is weighing on buyer sentiment. So really, a lot has changed in the last four months.

在第一季初，由於自然的支持性利率環境，我們正為強勁的春季銷售做好準備。但不確定性正在影響買家情緒。所以，過去四個月確實發生了許多變化。

Now if I look at our specific competitive position, we're a multichannel through the cycle lender. I would say in this particular market, our broker originations have moderated a little bit. We have really strong relationships, and we continue to compete for profitable business.

現在，如果我看一下我們的具體競爭地位，我們是一家多通路的周期貸款機構。我想說在這個特定的市場中，我們的經紀人發起已經有所緩和。我們之間的關係非常牢固，我們將繼續競爭有利可圖的業務。

But you mentioned the [MMS] and what I thought might be helpful to share is despite the macro headwinds, I'm really pleased with the strength that we've seen in our proprietary channels. So if I look at our branch and MMS proprietary ecosystem, originations -- and again, this is despite the macro environment, originations in those two channels are actually up double digits year-over-year.

但是您提到了 [MMS]，我認為值得分享的是，儘管存在宏觀阻力，但我對我們在專有管道中看到的實力感到非常高興。因此，如果我看一下我們的分支機構和 MMS 專有生態系統、發起情況——儘管宏觀環境如此，但這兩個管道的發起情況實際上同比增長了兩位數。

And so while you see a flat average sequential growth on a spot basis, we're actually up $1.5 billion quarter over quarter. So the growth is there. The profile was a little different this quarter where we had higher pay downs in January and February, but then we exited the quarter with momentum.

因此，儘管您會看到現貨基礎上的平均連續成長持平，但我們實際上比上一季成長了 15 億美元。因此，成長是存在的。本季的情況略有不同，我們在一月和二月的還款額較高，但隨後我們以強勁的勢頭結束了本季。

So overall, I think the fundamentals are very good. What we are highly focused on, Mike, is really building speed in our ecosystem, ensuring we have specialization. Our branch mortgage referral system, ecosystem I had shared on the Q1 call, we had tripled referrals in that ecosystem in Q1, and that has continued in Q2. So on a year-to-date basis, the branch MMS referral ecosystem is performing incredibly well.

所以總體而言，我認為基本面非常好。麥克，我們高度關注的是真正加快我們的生態系統，確保我們的專業化。我們的分行抵押貸款推薦系統，我在第一季電話會議上分享過的生態系統，我們在第一季度將該生態系統的推薦量增加了兩倍，並且這種趨勢在第二季度也持續了下去。因此，從年初至今來看，分支 MMS 推薦生態系統表現非常出色。

So I would say good exit momentum to Q2. And I think we're poised as the market recovers to deliver on speed and expertise.

所以我認為第二季的退出勢頭良好。我認為，隨著市場復甦，我們已準備好以速度和專業知識提供服務。

That's great insight. Just one quick follow-up. So would you be expecting to trend in terms of loan volumes with the industry? I'm just not sure if there's a dynamic of protecting margins or maybe focusing on more profitable accounts that would maybe lead to a little bit of underperformance going forward.

這是非常深刻的見解。只需快速跟進一次。那麼，您是否預期該行業的貸款量將呈現趨勢？我只是不確定是否存在保護利潤率的動力，或者可能專注於更有利可圖的帳戶，這可能會導致未來的表現略有不佳。

I think my profitability should always be a factor. And so we will compete to win profitable business and then leverage our strength in channels where we can differentiate on speed and customer experience, but profitability is important.

我認為我的盈利能力應該始終是一個因素。因此，我們將競爭贏得獲利業務，然後利用我們在通路中的優勢，在速度和客戶體驗上實現差異化，但獲利能力很重要。

Do you want to elaborate a little bit on just the paydown dynamics that you're seeing as well?

您是否想詳細說明您所看到的償還動態？

Yes. Yes, for sure, Kelvin, I can share that. So Mike, what we saw in Q1 was some seasonality late in the quarter. And really, that continued actually interestingly enough this year -- this quarter into February. So both January and February were high pay down months for us.

是的。是的，當然，凱爾文，我可以分享這一點。麥克，我們在第一季看到的是季度末的一些季節性現象。事實上，今年這個季度至二月的情況仍然很有趣。因此，一月和二月對我們來說都是高薪月份。

I think our book skews slightly more premium. And so as you have customers that have more disposable income by way of year-end bonuses, for example, and more liquidity in the market, we actually saw January and February prepayments were up double digits on a year-over-year basis. So that was some of the dampness in late in Q1 and then also the jump-off point as well as early in Q2 in February. So those are perhaps a little bit more symptomatic of our premium book.

我認為我們的書稍微偏向高端一些。因此，由於客戶透過年終獎金等方式擁有更多可支配收入，且市場流動性更強，我們實際上看到 1 月和 2 月的預付款同比增長了兩位數。所以這是第一季末的一些潮濕情況，也是二月第二季初的起點。因此，這些可能更能反映我們的優質書籍。

Lemar Persaud, Cormark Securities.

Lemar Persaud，Cormark 證券。

I want to go to the liquidity coverage ratio, that 141%. You're saying that, obviously, it should be somewhat elevated in the near term, reflecting these proceeds from the Schwab shares. How should we -- like what's the more normal level given all the changes that's going on at TD? And should we be thinking about something in the 130% flat range and kind of how fast do you get there? Any thoughts would be helpful.

我想談談流動性覆蓋率，即141%。您說的是，顯然，短期內該比率應該會有所上升，以反映嘉信理財股票的收益。考慮到 TD 正在發生的所有變化，我們應該如何確定更正常的水平？我們是否應該考慮 130% 平坦範圍內的某些東西，以及您能多快達到這個水平？任何想法都會有幫助。

It's Kelvin. I'll take that. Yes. So we would look at LCR in the normal range of 125% to 135%. So 130% is kind of smack in the middle. In terms of just adding -- providing a little bit more color, last year, when we raised liquidity, some of that liquidity were like kind of a, let's say, a one-year basis, so it's going to take some time for those to run off. But we're comfortable at normalizing on a [liquidity] level getting back to the 125% to 135% over time.

是開爾文。我會接受的。是的。因此，我們會將 LCR 視為 125% 至 135% 的正常範圍。所以 130% 處於中間位置。就補充而言 - 提供更多細節，去年，當我們提高流動性時，其中一些流動性就像是一年期的基礎，因此這些流動性需要一些時間才能耗盡。但我們樂於將流動性水準逐漸恢復到 125% 至 135% 的正常水準。

And is that something that we could expect in the next year? Like I'm just wondering if you could just provide some time frame on --

這是我們明年可以期待的事嗎？我只是想知道你是否可以提供一些時間框架--

Yes. The answer is yes because the two biggest pieces, as you know, is the proceeds from the Schwab sale and then a lot of that is going to be redeployed in share buyback. And so that's going to be -- and then some of those liquidity raise about a year or 18 months. And over that time frame, that would also decrease. So that would normalize.

是的。答案是肯定的，因為正如你所知，最大的兩個部分是來自嘉信理財出售的收益，然後其中很大一部分將重新用於股票回購。因此，這些流動性將在大約一年或 18 個月內增加。而在這段時間內，這數字也會減少。這樣就會正常化。

Okay. And then a question on credit here. I appreciate the disclosure on the industry focus from tariffs. But wondering if there's any color you can add as to industries make up that kind of less than 1% cohort. Is it focused in any of these specific industries like automotive, agriculture or anything that you've highlighted on your slide 23? Or is it kind of well diversified amongst this kind of industries of focus?

好的。這裡有一個關於信用的問題。我很欣賞有關關稅行業焦點的披露。但我想知道您是否可以補充一些信息，因為各行業都構成了不到 1% 的群體。它是否專注於汽車、農業等特定行業或您在第 23 張投影片上強調的任何產業？或者說它在這類重點產業中是否實現了良好的多元化？

I'd say it's diversified across a number of industries that are on that page. Some of the ones I can call out for your benefit would be auto, agriculture, sundry manufacturing, transportation and retail. Those -- that's where most sensitive would be. But the industries on the page is not confined to one industry. So it's fairly diversified.

我想說的是，它在該頁面上的多個行業中都是多樣化的。我可以為您指出的一些有利行業包括汽車、農業、雜項製造、運輸和零售。這些——那是最敏感的地方。但頁面上的行業並不局限於一個行業。所以它是相當多樣化的。

Okay. And then how is your watch list kind of evolved over the last quarter?

好的。那麼，您的關註名單在過去一個季度是如何變化的？

Good question. Positively, and the watch list has been coming down, and it's actually down across all business segments.

好問題。積極的一面是，觀察名單一直在減少，實際上所有業務部門的觀察名單都在減少。

Okay. Anything you could share in terms of magnitude of changes in that watch list?

好的。能分享一下觀察名單變化幅度的情況嗎？

I don't have all those numbers in front of me. But I think if I look at my [impaireds], I wouldn't say there's a huge movement, but they are positive movements.

我面前並沒有那麼多數字。但我認為，如果我看看我的[受損情況]，我不會說這是一個巨大的運動，但它們是積極的動作。

Darko Mihelic, RBC Capital Markets.

Darko Mihelic，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

My questions are all for Ajai as well. Maybe just the first question is with respect to the reserve building. I do see the $500 million in the business build. But one of the things that I do also see is when I look at the forward-looking indicators and sort of what has changed, I see very significant changes in Canada GDP, US GDP and the house price index is also fairly aggressive, then you went from an expectation last quarter of 8% to a negative expectation for house prices for the rest of this year.

我所有的問題也都是針對 Ajai 的。也許第一個問題是關於儲備建設的。我確實看到了 5 億美元的業務成長。但我確實也看到的一件事是，當我查看前瞻性指標和變化時，我發現加拿大 GDP、美國 GDP 發生了非常顯著的變化，房價指數也相當激進，然後你從上個季度 8% 的預期變成了今年剩餘時間房價的負預期。

But a very small change overall in the actual Stage 1 and Stage 2 performing about 3% quarter over quarter. And I believe it's linked to very small changes in your unemployment expectations where we're seeing it the 40 basis point increase in unemployment expectation and it's essentially sitting where unemployment is today.

但第一階段和第二階段的實際表現整體變化很小，環比變化約為 3%。我相信這與失業預期的微小變化有關，我們看到失業預期增加了 40 個基點，基本上與今天的失業率持平。

So Ajai, what is informing -- first of all, am I correct in thinking that if we had a bigger change in the unemployment expectation, we would have seen even more reserve build on likely consumer and retail? And what is it that's informing this view that unemployment really won't change from like the current level in Canada?

那麼 Ajai，什麼是通知——首先，我是否正確地認為，如果我們對失業預期有更大的變化，我們就會看到更多的儲備在可能的消費者和零售上建立？那麼，是什麼原因導致人們認為加拿大的失業率不會從目前的水平發生變化？

Yes. Well, let me walk you through what the drivers of our tariff build are. First are the macro changes. And again, the macro changes are determined by our Chief Economist. They're not determined by me, but we have a strong governance process, and we take it through our governance process.

是的。好吧，讓我向你們介紹一下我們制定關稅的驅動因素是什麼。首先是宏觀的變化。再次強調，宏觀變化是由我們的首席經濟學家決定的。這些都不是我自己決定的，但是我們有一個強大的治理流程，我們透過我們的治理流程來實現這些目標。

But what changed? So yes, you called out GDP actually. It came down quite a bit for Canada, quite a bit for the United States. Unemployment for Canada quarter over quarter, at least for the near term, went up 0.4%. For the US went up 0.2%. We did put tariffs into these scenarios, and I'm happy to share the numbers with you. For Canada, we put in tariffs of 10% for six months and then those come down over a period of time. And for the US, we put in 23% for six months, and those come down over a period of time. Okay.

但什麼改變了呢？是的，你實際上提到了 GDP。加拿大的降幅相當大，美國的降幅也相當大。至少在短期內，加拿大的失業率較上月上升了 0.4%。美國上漲了0.2%。我們確實將關稅納入了這些情景，我很高興與大家分享這些數字。對於加拿大，我們徵收為期六個月的 10% 關稅，然後在一段時間內降低。對於美國，我們在六個月內投入了 23%，然後這個數字會在一段時間內下降。好的。

Our -- the second thing I'd like to point out on macro is that our downside case is a recessionary case. And that downside case also reflects the risk of higher tariffs. In addition to the macro, what we've done is more holistically at the book and said, at higher tariffs rate what could be the impact on consumers and non-consumers. And that's the way we built the overlay. So it's really a combination of these macro plus the judgmental overlays that got us to the $500 million number.

關於宏觀經濟，我想指出的第二件事是，我們的下行情況是經濟衰退的情況。這種不利情況也反映了關稅上調的風險。除了宏觀層面之外，我們在書中所做的工作更為全面，並指出更高的關稅稅率可能對消費者和非消費者產生什麼影響。這就是我們建構覆蓋的方式。因此，這些宏觀因素加上判斷疊加，才讓我們達到了 5 億美元的數字。

But at 101 bps, Darko, I do feel that we are well reserved. And the one thing I want to caution you because the situation is fluid, things could change. There's always the possibility we may have to build reserves. But I feel good as to where we are. Our reserves reflect our forward-looking view as at April 30.

但在 101 個基點，Darko，我確實覺得我們已經很保守了。我想提醒大家的一件事是，由於情況瞬息萬變，事情可能會改變。我們總是有可能需要建立儲備。但我對我們現在的狀況感到很滿意。我們的儲備反映了我們截至 4 月 30 日的前瞻性觀點。

So if that forward-looking new evolves, we may have to build more reserves. But again, for this year, as you know, I'd really ask you to anchor on the fact that we're not changing our guidance. We're still saying for this year, 45 to 55 basis points, but we're also calling out that the risk to that range is elevated because of the environment.

因此，如果這種前瞻性的新情況出現，我們可能必須建立更多的儲備。但是，正如你所知，對於今年，我真的希望你確認我們不會改變我們的指導方針。我們仍然認為今年的利率將為 45 至 55 個基點，但我們也指出，由於環境因素，該範圍的風險正在上升。

Kelvin here. Also additional color is that immigration policy is also constraining population growth. So it's harder to get a rising and putting rate out of that factor. In addition, the assumption you can run various scenarios in your projection, but the scenario that we run there is that we expect to have resolution to be somewhere in Q3. And if that takes longer, and that would worsen the economic outlook and potentially drive higher PCL.

我是開爾文。另外，移民政策也限制了人口成長。因此，很難從這個因素中獲得上升和下降率。此外，假設您可以在預測中運行各種場景，但我們在那裡運行的場景是，我們預計解決方案將在第三季的某個時候出現。如果這個過程耗費的時間更長，那麼經濟前景將會惡化，並有可能推高 PCL。

Okay. And in your -- one of your answers previously, Ajai, you mentioned that the industries that are at risk, you sort of suggested that of that 9%, just 1% is most sensitive, I suppose, to tariffs. And you mentioned migration risk. Can you maybe better define that for me? I just want to understand the better definition and why the exposure is relatively small at less than 1% rather sensitive to tariffs. So maybe you can just define that migration issue a bit better for me.

好的。阿賈伊，在您先前的回答中，您提到了面臨風險的行業，我想您認為在這 9% 中，只有 1% 對關稅最為敏感。您提到了移民風險。您能為我更好地定義這一點嗎？我只是想了解更好的定義，以及為什麼風險敞口相對較小（不到 1%）且對關稅相當敏感。所以也許您可以為我更好地定義一下遷移問題。

Well, let me outline how we build the results and created the overlay. We looked at the industries that were most exposed to tariffs, okay? That's a broad set. That's the 9% number. Our reserves were built on that 9% number.

好吧，讓我概述一下我們如何建立結果並創建覆蓋。我們研究了受關稅影響最大的產業，好嗎？這是一個廣泛的集合。這就是 9% 的數字。我們的儲備就是基於這個 9% 的數字建立的。

We did is we went actually within those industries borrow by borrower and assess what is the financial impact on the borrowers. So before we look at revenue, we look at cost of goods sold and we'd look at what impact that would have on the readings of that individual borrower. If you then aggregate that up, that created the overlay, okay? So that's the allowance bit.

我們所做的是，實際上我們進入了這些行業，透過借款人進行借款，並評估借款人所遭受的財務影響。因此，在查看收入之前，我們會先查看銷售成本，並查看這會對個人借款人的讀數產生什麼影響。如果您將其聚合起來，就創建了覆蓋層，好嗎？這就是津貼部分。

We then went to a to each borrower, and we use a set of criteria. And one of the main criteria we used was borrower strength, that which of these borrowers would be most vulnerable or most sensitive to tariffs. And when we aggregated that number up, this is exposure, that number was less than 1% of gross loans.

然後，我們對每個借款人進行調查，並使用一套標準。我們使用的主要標準之一是藉款人實力，即哪些借款人最容易受到關稅的影響或最敏感。當我們把這個數字加起來時，這就是風險敞口，這個數字還不到總貸款的 1%。

Okay. And so essentially, if your reserves are based on the 9%, but when you whittle it down to than 1%, is it -- are you suggesting that the overlay actually brought the reserve down?

好的。因此，從本質上講，如果您的儲備金是基於 9%，但當您將其削減至 1% 以下時，您是否認為疊加實際上降低了儲備金？

No. The reserves are based on 9%, but you could conclude a lot of those results are held against these -- are most sensitive.

不。儲備金是基於 9% 的，但你可以得出這樣的結論：很多結果都是針對這些 — — 最敏感的。

There are no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Raymond Chun. Mr. Chun?

目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將會議交給 Raymond Chun。春先生？

Take a pause for a sec. Listen, let me just thank everyone for joining the call. And just again, I'll end with thanking are more than 100,000 colleagues across Canada, US, and globally for all your support and all the hard work, and we look forward to chatting with all of you next quarter. Thank you.

暫停一下。聽著，我只想感謝大家參加電話會議。最後，我要再次感謝加拿大、美國和全球 10 萬多名同事的所有支持和辛勤工作，我們期待下個季度與大家交談。謝謝。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。