Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone and welcome to the TD Bank Group Q1 2025 earnings conference call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Brook Hales, Head of Investor Relations.

    大家早安,歡迎參加道明銀行集團 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係主管布魯克·黑爾斯女士。

  • Please go ahead, Ms. Hales.

    請繼續,黑爾斯女士。

  • Brooke Hales - Head of Investor Relations

    Brooke Hales - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to TD Bank Group's first-quarter 2025 results presentation. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Raymond Chun, the bank's CEO; followed by Leo Salom, President and CEO, TD Bank, America's most Convenient Bank; after which Kelvin Tran, the bank's CFO, will present our first quarter operating results. Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality, after which we will invite questions from prequalified analysts and investors on the phone.

    謝謝您,接線生。早安,歡迎參加道明銀行集團 2025 年第一季業績報告。今天的演講將以該銀行首席執行官 Raymond Chun 的演講開始;接下來是美國最便利的銀行道明銀行 (TD Bank) 總裁兼執行長 Leo Salom;之後,銀行財務長 Kelvin Tran 將介紹我們第一季的營運表現。首席風險長 Ajai Bambawale 將對信用品質發表評論,之後我們將透過電話邀請合格的分析師和投資者提問。

  • Also present today to answer your questions are Sona Mehta, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking; Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking; Tim Wiggan, Group Head, Wholesale Banking and President and CEO of TD Securities; and Paul Clark, Senior Executive Vice President, Wealth Management.

    今天到場回答大家問題的還有加拿大個人銀行集團主管 Sona Mehta;芭芭拉‧胡珀 (Barbara Hooper),加拿大商業銀行集團主管;威根 (Tim Wiggan),批發銀行集團主管、道明證券總裁兼執行長;以及財富管理高級執行副總裁保羅克拉克(Paul Clark)。

  • Please turn to Slide 2. As noted on Slide 2, our comments during this call may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. The bank believes that adjusted results provide readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance.

    請翻到投影片 2。如投影片 2 所述,我們在本次電話會議中的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及假設並具有固有風險和不確定性。實際結果可能存在重大差異。我還要提醒聽眾,該銀行使用非公認會計準則財務指標來得出調整後的結果。該銀行認為,調整後的結果可以讓讀者更了解管理階層如何看待該銀行的表現。

  • Ray, Leo and Kelvin will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks. Additional information about non-GAAP measures and material factors and assumptions is available in our Q1 '25 report to shareholders.

    Ray、Leo 和 Kelvin 將在他們的演講中提到調整後的結果。有關非公認會計準則指標和重要因素及假設的更多信息,請參閱我們向股東提交的 2025 年第一季度報告。

  • With that, let me turn the presentation over to Ray.

    說完這些,讓我把演講交給雷。

  • Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

    Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

  • Thank you, Brook, and good morning, everyone. Before we discuss the quarter, I want to briefly comment on the current environment. There is no doubt that tariff and trade risks are clouding the economic outlook, should these risks materialize a lot depends on their depth and duration. And on the actions governments may take to support Canadians and Canadian businesses. First and foremost, whatever ultimately happens, we are focused on our customers and clients.

    謝謝你,布魯克,大家早安。在我們討論本季之前,我想先簡單評論一下當前的環境。毫無疑問,關稅和貿易風險正在為經濟前景蒙上陰影,這些風險是否會成為現實,很大程度上取決於其深度和持續時間。以及政府可能採取哪些行動來支持加拿大人和加拿大企業。首先,無論最終發生什麼,我們都會關注我們的客戶和客戶。

  • We will continue to support the millions of businesses and households across Canada and the United States as they navigate uncertainty and new dynamics. Next, we are modeling multiple scenarios, including potential impacts on provisions. The bank is well capitalized with a strong balance sheet, a resilient business model and conservative risk appetite, all of which provide us with the ability to steer through unknowns and shifts in the macroeconomic environment.

    我們將繼續支持加拿大和美國的數百萬企業和家庭,幫助他們應對不確定性和新情況。接下來,我們將模擬多種情景,包括對規定的潛在影響。該銀行資本充足、資產負債表強勁、商業模式穩健、風險偏好保守,這些都使我們能夠應對宏觀經濟環境中的未知因素和變化。

  • The current situation is also a clear signal that Canadian governments and businesses must pull together, remove the obstacles that hold back national productivity and strengthen our competitiveness. Interprovincial trade barriers are something we must tackle, accelerating critical projects to untapped mineral, energy and resource production and leadership is another key focus area.

    目前的情況也清楚表明,加拿大政府和企業必須齊心協力,消除阻礙國家生產力發展的障礙,增強我們的競爭力。跨省貿易壁壘是我們必須解決的問題,加快尚未開發的礦產、能源和資源生產和領導力的關鍵項目是另一個重點領域。

  • We also need to evaluate tax regulatory and other policies to retain talent, create the right conditions for businesses to grow and make Canada a top destination for foreign investment. I believe Canada has an opportunity to build on its strength and create the right conditions for our economies to thrive in the future.

    我們還需要評估稅收監管和其他政策,以留住人才,為企業發展創造適當條件,使加拿大成為外國投資的首選目的地。我相信加拿大有機會鞏固其實力,並為我們未來的經濟繁榮創造良好的條件。

  • With that, let's turn to the next slide. I'd like to start with an update on our strategic review. As we discussed, we are undertaking a comprehensive strategic review at the bank. This will culminate in an Investor Day in the second half of 2025, but we will provide updates along the way. The strategic review is organized around four pillars, and we are making steady progress in each.

    說完這些,我們來看下一張投影片。首先我想介紹一下我們的策略審查的最新進展。正如我們所討論的,我們正在對銀行進行全面的策略審查。這將在 2025 年下半年的投資者日達到高潮,但我們將在此過程中提供最新資訊。策略審查圍繞著四大支柱展開,我們在每個支柱上都取得了穩步進展。

  • Earlier this month, we sold TD's entire 10.1% stake in Schwab to pursue compelling opportunities to invest in our own business, both by buying back TD shares and by seizing opportunities to further support our customers, drive performance and accelerate organic growth. And on Monday, we announced that the share buyback received regulatory approval to start on March 3. We also gave more authority and accountability to our lines of business with the end-to-end customer experience, streamlining TD's operating model.

    本月初,我們出售了道明銀行在嘉信理財的全部 10.1% 股份,以尋求投資我們自己業務的絕佳機會,既通過回購道明銀行股票,也通過抓住機會進一步支持我們的客戶、推動業績並加速有機增長。週一,我們宣布股票回購已獲得監管部門批准,將於 3 月 3 日開始。我們也透過端到端客戶體驗賦予業務部門更多權力和責任,從而簡化了 TD 的營運模式。

  • In a few minutes, you will hear from Leo on our US balance sheet restructuring, we are making great progress and are on track to complete the program along our previously communicated time line. Leo will also provide an update on our AML remediation. Finally, we are focused on operational excellence and on driving efficiency. AML is our number one priority, and we will continue to invest to accelerate momentum across our businesses, we will also need to make strategic investments.

    幾分鐘後,您將聽到 Leo 介紹我們的美國資產負債表重組情況,我們正在取得重大進展,並有望按照我們先前溝通的時間表完成該計劃。Leo 也將提供有關我們的反洗錢補救措施的最新進展。最後,我們注重卓越營運和提高效率。反洗錢是我們的首要任務,我們將繼續投資以加速我們業務的發展勢頭,我們還需要進行策略性投資。

  • We are identifying significant opportunities to restructure operations, reduce costs and improve processes. Please turn to Slide 4. In Q1, the bank delivered earnings of $3.6 billion and EPS of $2.02. We saw volume growth in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking and strong trading and fee income in our markets-driven businesses. As you will hear from Ajai shortly, Q1 PCLs reflect certain overlays for policy and trade uncertainty.

    我們正在尋找重組營運、降低成本和改善流程的重要機會。請翻到幻燈片 4。第一季度,該銀行獲利 36 億美元,每股收益 2.02 美元。我們看到加拿大個人和商業銀行業務量成長,市場驅動型業務的交易和費用收入強勁。正如您很快就會從 Ajai 那裡聽到的那樣,第一季的 PCL 反映了政策和貿易不確定性的某些影響。

  • And Kelvin will speak more about expense growth in his remarks. Expenses this quarter include the impact of TD shares issued to eligible nonexecutive colleagues in December to show our appreciation for their hard work and commitment to the bank in a challenging year. As of quarter end, the bank's CET1 ratio was 13.1%, and pro forma for the sale of our Schwab stake earlier this month and the completion of the proposed $8 billion share buyback, TD CET1 ratio would be approximately 14.2%. TD is very well capitalized with the flexibility to complete a significant share buyback while investing to drive organic growth and maintaining prudent capital levels.

    凱爾文將在演講中更多地談論費用增長問題。本季度的費用包括 12 月份向符合條件的非執行同事發行的 TD 股票的影響,以表達我們對他們在充滿挑戰的一年裡為銀行所做的辛勤工作和承諾的感謝。截至季末,該銀行的 CET1 比率為 13.1%,而根據本月初出售我們的嘉信理財股份以及完成擬議的 80 億美元股票回購的預測,TD CET1 比率將約為 14.2%。TD 資本充足,能夠靈活地完成大量股票回購,同時進行投資以推動有機成長並維持審慎的資本水準。

  • Please turn to Slide 5. As I travel across our footprint and meet with colleagues, I am struck by their tremendous pride in TD. We have strong momentum across our businesses, and that was evident in our Q1 results. We operate Canada's premier banking franchise and are very proud that TD was once again named Canada's most valuable brand by Brand Finance. In Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, we introduced (inaudible) specialists in branch to enhance our proprietary distribution strategy. The distribution ecosystem deepens customer relationships and improves retention while delivering a strong profitable profile. And in credit cards, the team delivered a record quarter in active accounts in cardholder spend. TD Auto Finance saw record originations in Q1 and added dozens of new dealer floor plan relationships.

    請翻到投影片 5。當我走訪我們的足跡並與同事會面時,我對他們對 TD 的巨大自豪感深感震驚。我們的各項業務都發展勢頭強勁,這在第一季的業績中得到了明顯體現。我們經營加拿大首屈一指的銀行特許經營權,並且非常自豪道明銀行再次被 Brand Finance 評為加拿大最有價值的品牌。在加拿大個人和商業銀行業務中,我們引入了(聽不清楚)分行專家來增強我們的專有分銷策略。經銷生態系統加深了客戶關係、提高了保留率,同時提供了強大的獲利能力。在信用卡方面,該團隊在活躍帳戶持卡人支出方面創下了季度紀錄。TD 汽車金融 (TD Auto Finance) 在第一季創下了創紀錄的貸款發放量,並增加了數十家新的經銷商平面圖關係。

  • Turning to US retail. AML remediation remains our number one priority. We have seen good customer momentum with five consecutive quarters of customer deposit growth. We're also seeing momentum in our US wealth business with total client assets of USD52 billion up 11% year over year. As you know, our IDA with Schwab remains unchanged. We are pleased with the current arrangement and confident that we can manage the Schwab balances while complying with the asset limitation.

    轉向美國零售業。反洗錢整治仍是我們的首要任務。我們看到了良好的客戶發展勢頭,客戶存款連續五個季度增長。我們的美國財富業務也呈現成長勢頭,客戶總資產達 520 億美元,較去年同期成長 11%。如您所知,我們與嘉信理財的 IDA 保持不變。我們對目前的安排感到滿意,並相信我們可以在遵守資產限制的同時管理嘉信理財餘額。

  • Wealth Management and insurance had a strong quarter. Let me start by congratulating the direct investing team. For the third year in a row, we were named the number one digital broker in Canada by The Globe and Mail, a fantastic accomplishment that further extends our leadership in this critical category. Last year, TD introduced partial shares capability. unique among Canadian banks and a big hit with young investors.

    財富管理和保險本季表現強勁。首先,我要祝賀直接投資團隊。我們連續第三年被《環球郵報》評為加拿大第一大數位經紀商,這項了不起的成就進一步鞏固了我們在這一關鍵類別中的領導地位。去年,TD推出了部分股份功能。在加拿大銀行中獨樹一幟,受到年輕投資者的熱烈歡迎。

  • Just over 50% of our clients that have traded partial shares are Gen Z and millennials. In TD Asset Management, we won $3.2 billion in new institutional mandates this quarter. Our strong performance was recognized with 24 fund-grade A+ awards, including 15 for ETFs. We a testament to our momentum in this rapidly growing segment of the market. Finally, in TD Insurance, we became the first Canadian issuer to sponsor a catastrophe bond solely focused on catastrophe perils in Canada.

    在進行部分股票交易的客戶中,超過 50% 是 Z 世代和千禧世代。在道明資產管理 (TD Asset Management),我們本季贏得了 32 億美元的新機構授權。我們的強勁表現獲得了 24 項基金級 A+ 獎項的認可,其中包括 15 項 ETF 獎項。我們證明了我們在這個快速成長的市場領域的發展勢頭。最後,在道明保險,我們成為第一家贊助專注於加拿大災難風險的災難債券的加拿大發行人。

  • This $150 million issuance is an example of our One TD strategy. with TD Securities acting as joint book runner on this placement. Through the cap bond issuance, TD Insurance leveraged capital markets to manage risk exposure and support resilience against natural disasters.

    此次1.5億美元的發行就是我們的「One TD」策略的一個例子。道明證券 (TD Securities) 擔任本次配售的聯席帳簿管理人。透過發行上限債券,道明保險利用資本市場來管理風險敞口並支持抵禦自然災害的能力。

  • In Wholesale Banking, we continue to demonstrate the power of our broader platform with quarterly revenue over $2 billion for the first time. (inaudible), TD's leading US municipal bond trading dealer expanded into a new asset class and is now trading US investment-grade corporate bonds. TD Cowen was recently named IFR's 2024 US Mid-Market Equity House of the Year, an award given to the leading underwriter of US equity offerings between USD50 million and USD500 million.

    在企業銀行業務方面,我們持續展現更廣泛平台的實力,季度收入首次超過 20 億美元。 (聽不清楚),道明領先的美國市政債券交易商擴展到新的資產類別,目前正在交易美國投資級公司債。TD Cowen 最近被 IFR 評為 2024 年度美國中型市場股票公司,該獎項授予發行金額在 5000 萬美元至 5 億美元之間的美國股票的領先承銷商。

  • And after quarter end, TD Securities acted as lead book runner on TD sale of its Schwab stake. This critical role in a milestone transaction is already opening new opportunities for our wholesale banking business. Across our Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking and Wealth management insurance segments, we continue to make progress against the medium-term financial targets that we laid out at our 2023 Investor Day. Slides 29 and 30 in the appendix provide an update on our progress.

    季度結束後,道明證券 (TD Securities) 擔任道明出售其嘉信理財股份的主承銷商。這項里程碑交易中的關鍵角色已經為我們的批發銀行業務開闢了新的機會。在我們的加拿大個人和商業銀行以及財富管理保險領域,我們繼續朝著我們在 2023 年投資者日制定的中期財務目標邁進。附錄中的投影片 29 和 30 提供了我們的最新進展。

  • Please turn to Slide 6. Digital leadership is a critical component of both customer experience and business performance, and it's an area of focus and investment in our strategic review. TD Invent is our bank-wide umbrella effort to power innovation.

    請翻到幻燈片 6。數位領導力是客戶體驗和業務績效的關鍵組成部分,也是我們策略審查的重點和投資領域。TD Invent 是我們全銀行為推動創新所做的整體努力。

  • Last year, we deployed a generative AI virtual assistant in our contact centers supporting the Canadian Personal Bank. We have seen reductions in called hold times, escalations to second level support, driving efficiency while enhancing the customer experience. We are now rolling out this Gen AI virtual assistant to our contact center supporting our wealth and insurance businesses. We are determined to keep innovating, elevating the experience and driving growth through digital leadership.

    去年,我們在支援加拿大個人銀行的聯絡中心部署了生成式人工智慧虛擬助理。我們看到呼叫等待時間的減少,升級到二級支持,在提高效率的同時增強了客戶體驗。我們現在正在向我們的聯絡中心推出這款 Gen AI 虛擬助手,以支持我們的財富和保險業務。我們決心不斷創新,提升體驗,並透過數位領導力推動成長。

  • Please turn to Slide 7. Before I turn the call over to Leo, I want to note that we will release our 2024 sustainable report soon. It will outline our progress and our commitment to our clients as they adapt their businesses and seize new opportunities. Let me conclude with a quick comment.

    請翻到幻燈片 7。在我將電話轉給 Leo 之前,我想指出的是,我們將很快發布 2024 年永續發展報告。它將概述我們在客戶調整業務和抓住新機會過程中取得的進展和對客戶的承諾。最後,請允許我簡短地評論一下。

  • I've been CEO for just under a month. The strategic review is advancing as planned we will continue to drive change and unlock new opportunities. What remains constant is the commitment of our colleagues. I want to thank them for their tremendous effort as together, we build the bank for the future.

    我擔任執行長還不到一個月。策略審查正在按計劃推進,我們將繼續推動變革並發掘新的機會。始終不變的是我們的同事們的承諾。我要感謝他們所做的巨大努力,我們共同建立未來的銀行。

  • With that, Leo, over to you.

    說完這些,Leo,就交給你了。

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Thank you, Ray, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8. US AML remediation, as we've said previously, remains our top priority and I'm pleased with the progress that we've made over the past quarter. We're moving forward with focus and purpose, and we continue to bring additional AML specialists with proven experience on to our team and together with the exceptional team that we've already built, we're building the capabilities we need for the future.

    謝謝你,雷,大家早安。請翻到幻燈片 8。正如我們之前所說,美國反洗錢補救仍然是我們的首要任務,我對我們在過去一個季度的進展感到滿意。我們正帶著專注和目標不斷前進,並將繼續為我們的團隊引進更多具有豐富經驗的反洗錢專家,與我們已經建立的優秀團隊一起,構建我們未來所需的能力。

  • An important component of our resolutions with the appointment of a monitor. The DOJ and FinCEN have jointly selected guidepost solutions as we look forward to working with them to strengthen and enhance our US BSA/AML compliance program. Operationally, we are making progress on the technology side, including centralizing all investigative cases onto a new single case management system. We will also be implementing enhancements for transaction monitoring, including adding a further round of scenarios in upcoming quarters.

    任命一名監察員是我們決議的一個重要組成部分。美國司法部和金融犯罪執法局已聯合選擇了指南解決方案,我們期待與他們合作,加強和改進我們的美國 BSA/AML 合規計劃。在營運上,我們在技術方面取得了進展,包括將所有調查案件集中到新的單一案件管理系統。我們還將實施交易監控增強功能,包括在接下來的幾季中增加新一輪的場景。

  • We have designed machine learning tools to help analyze customer data more effectively to detect potential activity of interest with speed. We expect to begin implementing these capabilities in Q3. Collectively, building these capabilities will enable us to detect, escalate and report potential activity of interest earlier and more effectively. We remain focused on completing the remediation actions as outlined. There is still much to do, and this is a multiyear process, but we remain unwavering in our commitment to build the AML program we need, and we will continue to provide updates on a quarterly basis.

    我們設計了機器學習工具來幫助更有效地分析客戶數據,以便快速檢測潛在的興趣的活動。我們預計將在第三季開始實現這些功能。總的來說,建立這些能力將使我們能夠更早、更有效地發現、升級和報告潛在的關注活動。我們將繼續專注於完成概述的補救措施。還有很多工作要做,而且這是一個多年的過程,但我們仍然堅定不移地致力於建立我們所需的反洗錢計劃,我們將繼續每季提供更新。

  • Now if I can ask everyone to please turn to Page 9. I'd also like to provide an update on our balance sheet restructuring activities. You will recall this effort has two critical objectives. First, to strictly comply with and maintain a buffer to the asset cap limitation and second, to ensure that we can continue to serve our clients and communities as their needs evolve. We have made meaningful progress against our objectives.

    現在請大家翻到第 9 頁。我還想提供有關我們的資產負債表重組活動的最新情況。你會記得,這項努力有兩個關鍵目標。第一,嚴格遵守並保持資產上限限制;第二,確保我們能夠隨著客戶和社區需求的變化繼續為他們提供服務。我們在實現目標方面已經取得了有意義的進展。

  • Most notably, we have reduced assets from USD434 billion in September to approximately $402 billion in January due largely to the reduction of borrowings using excess cash and investment maturities. Our asset reduction is proceeding on track as well. This week, we signed an agreement to sell $9 billion corresponding lending portfolio and we do expect that transaction to close in Q2. Our investment portfolio reposition is also proceeding well. To date, we have sold approximately $19 billion of notional bonds for an upfront loss of $1.1 billion pretax.

    最值得注意的是,我們的資產從 9 月的 4,340 億美元減少至 1 月的約 4,020 億美元,這主要是由於減少了使用過剩現金和投資期限的借款。我們的資產減持也在按計劃進行。本週,我們簽署了一項出售 90 億美元相應貸款組合的協議,我們預計該交易將在第二季完成。我們的投資組合重新定位也進展順利。迄今為止,我們已出售了約 190 億美元的名義債券,前期損失為 11 億美元的稅前損失。

  • In total, the investment portfolio repositioning is expected to generate an NII benefit in fiscal 2025 at the upper end of the $300 million to $500 million pretax estimated range that we provided in October. I feel confident that we will complete the investment portfolio repositioning in the upcoming months and largely complete the identified loan sales by the end of the fiscal year. And we are assessing further portfolios with lower returns that are not scalable for potential sale or wind down as part of the broader strategic review that Ray referenced. Collectively, we expect these actions will enable us to improve return on equity through fiscal 2025 and into fiscal 2026.

    總體而言,投資組合重新定位預計將在 2025 財年產生 NII 收益,其上限將達到我們 10 月提供的 3 億至 5 億美元稅前估計範圍。我相信,我們將在未來幾個月內完成投資組合的重新定位,並在財政年度結束前基本完成已確定的貸款銷售。作為雷提到的更廣泛的策略評估的一部分,我們正在評估其他回報率較低、不具備潛在出售或清算能力的投資組合。總的來說,我們預計這些措施將使我們能夠在 2025 財年和 2026 財年提高股本回報率。

  • With that, I'll turn it over now to Kelvin.

    說完這些,我現在將話題交給凱爾文。

  • Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

    Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

  • Thank you, Leo. Please turn to Slide 10. Earnings were relatively flat year over year, reflecting higher revenues, offset by higher expenses, including governance and control investments and higher PCLs. Full bank PTPP was up 6% year over year after removing the impact of the US strategic card portfolio, FX and insurance service expenses.

    謝謝你,Leo。請翻到投影片 10。獲利與去年同期相比相對持平,反映出收入增加,但被支出增加(包括治理和控制投資以及更高的 PCL)所抵消。剔除美國策略卡組合、外匯及保險服務費用的影響後,全行PTPP年增6%。

  • Revenue grew 9% year over year, driven by higher trading-related and fee income in our market-driven businesses, volumes in Canadian personal and commercial banking and insurance premiums. Expenses increased 12% year over year, driven by -- and with approximately a third of the growth driven by variable compensation commensurate with higher revenues and foreign exchange.

    營收年增 9%,這得益於我們市場驅動型業務的交易相關收入和費用收入增加、加拿大個人和商業銀行業務以及保險費的增加。支出年增 12%,其中約三分之一的成長是由與更高的收入和外匯相稱的可變薪酬所推動的。

  • We continue to expect fiscal 2025 expense growth, assuming fiscal 2024 levels of variable compensation, FX and the US strategic cards portfolio to be in the 5% to 7% range. However, given the ramp-up in our governance and control investments over the course of fiscal 2024, we expect elevated year-over-year expense growth in Q2. We have provided Slide 27 in the appendix to today's presentation to help stakeholders better understand TD's expense growth profile.

    我們繼續預期 2025 財年的支出將會成長,假設 2024 財年的可變薪酬、外匯和美國策略卡組合的水準將在 5% 至 7% 的範圍內。然而,鑑於我們在 2024 財年期間治理和控制投資的增加,我們預計第二季的支出將年增率上升。我們在今天的簡報的附錄中提供了第 27 張投影片,以幫助利害關係人更好地了解 TD 的費用成長狀況。

  • Please turn to Slide 11. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record revenue, PTPP, deposits and loans. Average loan volumes rose 4% year over year with 4% growth in personal volumes, reflecting real estate secured lending up 3% and cards, up 9% and 6% growth in business volumes. (inaudible), we saw the uptick in customer activity that began late in Q4 carry into Q1, driven by lower interest rates with the tariff uncertainty emerging only late in Q1.

    請翻到第 11 張投影片。加拿大個人和商業銀行的收入、PTPP、存款和貸款都創下了歷史新高。平均貸款量較去年同期成長 4%,其中個人貸款量成長 4%,反映房地產抵押貸款成長 3%,信用卡貸款成長 9%,業務量成長 6%。 (聽不清楚),我們看到從第四季末開始的客戶活動增加一直延續到第一季度,這是受較低利率推動的,而關稅不確定性在第一季末才出現。

  • In Commercial Banking, demand was strong in Q1, but customers are now pivoting to a wait-and-see approach. Average deposits rose 5% year over year, reflecting 4% growth in personal deposits and 7% growth in business deposits. In the personal bank, we saw good growth in non-term deposits, and moderate growth in term deposits as customers value liquidity in the current environment. This mix shift was margin accretive. Net interest margin was 2.81% up 1 basis point quarter over quarter, primarily driven by changes to (inaudible) mix.

    在商業銀行方面,第一季需求強勁,但客戶目前轉向觀望態度。平均存款年增 5%,其中個人存款成長 4%,商業存款成長 7%。在個人銀行方面,我們看到非定期存款實現良好成長,定期存款實現適度成長,因為當前環境下客戶重視流動性。這種組合轉變增加了利潤。淨利差為 2.81%,較上一季上升 1 個基點,主要由於組合變化所致。

  • As we look forward to Q2, while many factors can impact margins, including the impact of a further Bank of Canada rate cuts, competitive market dynamics and deposit reinvestment rates and maturity profiles, we expect NIM to be relatively stable. Expenses increased, reflecting higher technology spend the impact of TD shares issued to eligible employees and various other operating expenses.

    展望第二季度,雖然許多因素都會影響利潤率,包括加拿大銀行進一步降息的影響、競爭性市場動態以及存款再投資利率和期限狀況,但我們預期淨利差將相對穩定。費用增加,反映了更高的技術支出、向合格員工發行的 TD 股票的影響以及其他各種營運費用。

  • Please turn to Slide 12. US Retail delivered business momentum while executing against our balance sheet restructuring program. Loans grew 1% year over year or 3% excluding the impact of the loan portfolios identified for sale or runoff. Bank card balances grew 12% year over year, and the small business and middle market verticals both grew 7% year over year. While our business clients generally foresee potential investment opportunities, many are proceeding with caution, given uncertainty around tariffs and long-term rates. Net interest margin was 2.86%, up 9 basis points quarter over quarter, reflecting the impact of the US balance sheet restructuring activities and normalization of liquidity levels, which positively impacted NIM by 5 basis points, partially offset by lower deposit margins.

    請翻到投影片 12。美國零售業在執行資產負債表重組計畫的同時,維持了業務成長動能。貸款年增 1%,若不計已確定出售或到期的貸款組合的影響,則增長 3%。銀行卡餘額年增12%,小型企業和中型市場垂直市場均較去年同期成長7%。雖然我們的商業客戶普遍預見潛在的投資機會,但考慮到關稅和長期利率的不確定性,許多客戶仍持謹慎態度。淨利差為2.86%,較上季上升9個基點,反映了美國資產負債表重組活動及流動性水準正常化的影響,對淨利差產生5個基點的正面影響,但被較低的存款保證金率部分抵銷。

  • As we look forward to Q2, we expect NIM to deliver a substantial expansion, benefiting from ongoing balance sheet restructuring activities and further normalization of our elevated liquidity levels. Expenses increased 11% year over year, reflecting higher governance and control investments, including cost of USD86 million for US BSA/AML remediation and higher operating expenses. As a reminder, effective this quarter, certain US governance and control investments, including costs for US BSA/AML remediation previously reported in the corporate segment are now reported in the US Retail segment.

    展望第二季度,我們預計淨利息收入 (NIM) 將大幅擴大,這得益於正在進行的資產負債表重組活動以及我們高流動性水平的進一步正常化。費用年增 11%,反映出更高的治理和控制投資,包括 8,600 萬美元的美國 BSA/AML 補救成本和更高的營運費用。提醒一下,從本季度開始,某些美國治理和控制投資(包括先前在企業部門報告的美國 BSA/AML 補救成本)現在在美國零售部門報告。

  • We have reclassified prior periods to conform with this approach. Governance and control investments were higher this quarter compared to the first quarter last year as remediation efforts progress over this period. We expect this year-over-year trend to continue into the second quarter. We continue to expect US BSA/AML remediation and related governance and control investments of approximately USD500 million pretax in fiscal 2025.

    我們已經對前期進行了重新分類,以符合這種方法。由於補救工作進展順利,本季的治理和控制投資與去年第一季相比有所增加。我們預計這種同比趨勢將持續到第二季​​。我們繼續預期美國 BSA/AML 補救措施及相關治理和控制投資在 2025 財年約為 5 億美元的稅前投資。

  • Please turn to Slide 13. The Wealth Management delivered record revenue, earnings and assets. New accounts were up 30% year-over-year with new accounts up 44% in direct investing as the business continue to compete and win in a competitive market.

    請翻到投影片 13。財富管理實現了創紀錄的收入、收益和資產。隨著企業在競爭激烈的市場中繼續競爭並獲勝,新帳戶數量年增 30%,直接投資新帳戶數量增加 44%。

  • Insurance delivered gross written premium growth of 13% year over year with our marketing efforts yielding leading brand awareness in the crowded category. To help support analysts and investors analysis of our business performance, we have provided new disclosure on return on equity for each of the wealth management and insurance businesses. Expenses this quarter reflect higher variable compensation. The business is driving efficiencies at it gains scale.

    保險業務的毛承保保費年增 13%,這得益於我們大力行銷,在競爭激烈的行業中獲得了領先的品牌知名度。為了幫助分析師和投資者分析我們的業務表現,我們對財富管理和保險業務的股本回報率進行了新的揭露。本季度的費用反映了更高的可變薪酬。企業在擴大規模的同時,也提高了效率。

  • Please turn to Slide 14. Wholesale Banking delivered record revenue this quarter, driven by its global markets business, demonstrating the power of our franchise. We saw higher PCLs this quarter with performing PCLs reflecting policy and trade uncertainty and impaired PCLs, reflecting a few new impairments. Expenses increased 7% year over year, reflecting higher verbal compensation, fund office and technology costs.

    請翻到投影片 14。在全球市場業務的推動下,批發銀行業務本季實現了創紀錄的收入,彰顯了我們特許經營的實力。本季度,我們看到 PCL 增加,其中表現良好的 PCL 反映了政策和貿易的不確定性,而受損的 PCL 則反映了一些新的減損。費用年增7%,反映出口頭補償、基金辦公室和技術成本的增加。

  • Please turn to Slide 15. As I mentioned earlier, effective this quarter, certain US governance and control investments, including costs for US BSA/AML remediation previously reported in the corporate segment are now reported in the US Retail segment. This slide reflects these changes within the corporate segment. Corporate net loss for the quarter was $266 million, and net corporate expenses were $370 million.

    請翻到投影片 15。正如我之前提到的,從本季度開始,某些美國治理和控制投資(包括先前在企業部門報告的美國 BSA/AML 補救成本)現在在美國零售部門報告。這張投影片反映了公司部門內的這些變化。本季公司淨虧損為 2.66 億美元,公司淨支出為 3.7 億美元。

  • Please turn to Slide 16. The Common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.1%, up 2 basis points sequentially. Strong internal capital generation was offset by the increase in RWA excluding the impact of FX and the impact from our US balance sheet restructuring activities. We expect the impact to CET1 from the Schwab share sale to be approximately 238 basis points in Q2.

    請翻到投影片 16。普通股一級資本比率本季末為 13.1%,較上一季上升 2 個基點。強勁的內部資本產生被排除外匯影響和美國資產負債表重組活動的影響之外的風險加權資產的增加所抵消。我們預計,嘉信理財股票出售對第二季度 CET1 的影響約為 238 個基點。

  • This differs modestly from what we disclosed on February 11 as that was based on Q4 risk-weighted assets and Q1 risk-weighted assets are higher. Our average LCR for the quarter, which does not reflect the impact of the Schwab share sale post quarter end was 141%. We are comfortable operating at more typical LCR levels and have begun to manage liquidity levels down. However, we expect LCR to remain elevated in the near term, reflecting proceeds from the Schwab's share sale.

    這與我們 2 月 11 日揭露的數據略有不同,因為當時的數據是基於第四季度風險加權資產,而第一季的風險加權資產較高。我們本季的平均流動性覆蓋率為 141%,不反映季末嘉信理財股票出售的影響。我們習慣在更典型的 LCR 水平上進行運營,並且已開始降低流動性水平。不過,我們預期流動性覆蓋率在短期內仍將維持高位,反映出嘉信理財股票出售的收益。

  • With that, Ajai, over to you.

    說完這些,Ajai,就交給你了。

  • Ajai Bambawale - Group Head, Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Group

    Ajai Bambawale - Group Head, Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Group

  • Thank you, Kelvin, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 17. Gross impaired loan formations were 25 basis points a decrease of 3 basis points quarter over quarter reflected in the Canadian and US commercial and wholesale banking lending portfolios.

    謝謝你,凱爾文,大家早安。請翻到投影片 17。加拿大和美國商業和批發銀行貸款組合中的不良貸款形成總額為 25 個基點,較上季下降 3 個基點。

  • Please turn to Slide 18. Gross impaired loans increased $504 million quarter over quarter to $5.45 billion or 56 basis points. The increase was recorded across the Canadian and US consumer and business and government lending portfolios and includes a $181 million impact of foreign exchange.

    請翻到幻燈片 18。總不良貸款季增 5.04 億美元,至 54.5 億美元,或 56 個基點。這一增長來自加拿大和美國的消費者、商業和政府貸款組合,其中包括 1.81 億美元的外匯影響。

  • Please turn to Slide 19. Recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios, both gross and net of the partner share of the US strategic card PCLs. We remind you that US card PCLs recorded in the corporate segment are fully absorbed by our partners and do not impact the bank's net income. The bank's provision for credit losses increased 3 basis points quarter over quarter to 50 basis points. The increase is largely reflected in Canadian personal and commercial banking and US commercial, partially offset by lower provisions in Wholesale Banking.

    請翻到投影片 19。回想一下,我們的報告報告了 PCL 比率,包括美國戰略卡 PCL 的合作夥伴份額的總額和淨額。我們提醒您,企業部門記錄的美國卡PCL已完全被我們的合作夥伴吸收,不會影響銀行的淨收入。該銀行的信貸損失準備金比上一季增加了3個基點,達到50個基點。這一成長主要反映在加拿大個人和商業銀行業務以及美國商業銀行業務,部分被批發銀行業務的撥備減少所抵銷。

  • Please turn to Slide 20. The bank's impaired PCL was $1.2 billion with an increase of $63 million quarter over quarter, driven by the US cards portfolio related to the adoption impact of a model update and seasonal trends, partially offset by lower impaired provisions in wholesale banking. A nominal performing PCL recovery of $4 million this quarter was related to the adoption impact of a model update in the US cards portfolio and improvement in our macroeconomic forecast, reflecting recent positive economic data, though tempered for policy and trade uncertainty, largely offset by overlays in the business and government lending portfolios, again, for policy and trade uncertainty.

    請翻到投影片 20。該銀行的減損PCL為12億美元,比上一季增加了6,300萬美元,主要受美國信用卡組合受到模型更新和季節性趨勢的影響所推動,但批發銀行業務減損準備金的減少部分抵消了這一影響。本季度名義表現良好的 PCL 復甦為 400 萬美元,這與美國信用卡投資組合模型更新的採用影響以及宏觀經濟預測的改善有關,反映了近期積極的經濟數據,儘管受到政策和貿易不確定性的影響,但在很大程度上被商業和政府貸款組合的疊加所抵消,同樣,這也是政策和貿易不確定性的影響。

  • Please turn to Slide 21. The allowance for credit losses increased by $457 million quarter-over-quarter to $9.6 billion or 99 basis points, primarily due to a $214 million impact from foreign exchange overlays in the business and government lending portfolios related to policy and trade uncertainty and credit migration, partially offset by an update to our macroeconomic forecast. In summary, the bank exhibited strong credit performance this quarter, in line with expectations as we progress through the credit cycle. While we have taken initial steps to bolster our reserves for policy and trade uncertainty the situation remains fluid.

    請翻到第 21 張投影片。信貸損失準備金環比增加 4.57 億美元,至 96 億美元,或 99 個基點,主要由於政策和貿易不確定性以及信貸遷移相關的企業和政府貸款組合中的外匯疊加產生了 2.14 億美元的影響,但我們對宏觀經濟預測的更新部分抵消了這一影響。總而言之,本季該銀行信貸表現強勁,符合信貸週期的預期。雖然我們已採取初步措施加強應對政策和貿易不確定性的儲備,但情況仍然不穩定。

  • There are many potential scenarios that could play out that may impact the economic trajectory and credit performance some of which could drive PCL results beyond the 45 to 55 basis points range I provided last quarter for fiscal 2025. That being said, TD is well positioned to manage through this period, considering our prudent provisioning, broad diversification across products and geographies, our strong capital position and are through the cycle underwriting standards that have served us well through challenging conditions in the past.

    有許多潛在情況可能會影響經濟軌跡和信貸表現,其中一些情況可能會導致 PCL 業績超出我上個季度為 2025 財年提供的 45 至 55 個基點的範圍。話雖如此,考慮到我們審慎的撥備、跨產品和跨地區的廣泛多元化、強大的資本狀況,以及在過去充滿挑戰的條件下為我們提供了良好服務的周期承保標準,TD 完全有能力度過這段時期。

  • With that, operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.

    接線員,我們現在可以開始問答環節了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Paul Holden, CIBC.

    (操作員指示) Paul Holden,CIBC。

  • Paul Holden - Analyst

    Paul Holden - Analyst

  • First question is related to the US balance sheet repositioning. You highlighted that you paid down USD25 billion of borrowings in Q1. And I'm assuming there's probably more to do there just in terms of paying down higher cost borrowings. Can that come hand in hand with, say, that $9 billion portfolio sale you've agreed to already in Q2? And could the sale of lower-yielding assets actually be NII accretive?

    第一個問題涉及美國資產負債表的重新定位。您強調您在第一季償還了 250 億美元的借款。我認為在償還高成本借款方面可能還有很多工作要做。這是否可以與您在第二季已經同意的 90 億美元投資組合出售相輔相成?並且,出售低收益資產實際上能夠增加NII嗎?

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Paul, thanks for the question, it's Leo. Yes, the short answer is, at the end of the first quarter, so January 31, we were sitting on $25 billion of bank borrowings, having already reduced nearly $25 billion previously. So there will be an opportunity to further reduce that over time. How quickly we can do that will depend on the term structure of some of those bank borrowings. So we will be able to deploy a good portion of the $9 billion to reduce a portion of those bank borrowings in the second quarter, the balance will have to materialize as we reduce our overall loan portfolio.

    保羅,謝謝你的提問,我是利奧。是的,簡而言之,在第一季末,也就是 1 月 31 日,我們的銀行借款為 250 億美元,而先前已經減少了近 250 億美元。因此,隨著時間的推移,將有機會進一步減少這一數字。我們能多快做到這一點將取決於部分銀行借款的期限結構。因此,我們將能夠部署 90 億美元中的很大一部分,以減少第二季的部分銀行借款,而餘額將隨著我們減少整體貸款組合而實現。

  • We'll do that gradually during the course of the year. So you may not see the same size of decline in the second quarter, but you will see over time an opportunity to further reduce the $25 billion in bank borrowings on the balance sheet at the end of the first quarter.

    我們將在今年內逐步實現這一目標。因此,您可能不會在第二季度看到同樣幅度的下降,但隨著時間的推移,您會看到進一步減少第一季末資產負債表上 250 億美元銀行借款的機會。

  • Paul Holden - Analyst

    Paul Holden - Analyst

  • And then second question, no change in expense guidance or that expected risk and control remediation costs of USD500 million. So that's good. Two questions related to that. I guess, first one is, can you give us a sense of the actual costs incurred in Q1 were relative to that $500 million bogey? And then two, I just want to get confidence that Ray, in particular, you've really gone through this checked off all the nuts and bolts to make sure there is no future upside risks that this USD500 million may grow into something larger?

    第二個問題是,費用指導沒有變化,或預期風險和控制補救成本為 5 億美元。這很好。有兩個問題與此相關。我想,第一個問題是,您能否告訴我們第一季發生的實際成本相對於 5 億美元的巨額損失有多少?其次,我只是想讓 Ray 相信,您確實已經仔細檢查了所有細節,確保這 5 億美元不會在未來帶來任何上行風險,從而變成更大的數目?

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • So Paul, maybe I'll address the first part of it then I'll hand it over to Ray. On the total expenses for the first quarter for the AML remediation was $86 million, and I think we disclosed that number, which is slightly lower than what we spent in the fourth quarter. That's to be expected. There'll be some ebbing and flowing in terms of expense timing related to some of the remediation activities. I do expect that the that some of the look back expenses related to the monitor costs, et cetera, will become much more material in the second half of the year.

    所以保羅,也許我會先解決第一部分,然後再交給雷。第一季用於反洗錢補救的總費用為 8600 萬美元,我想我們披露了這個數字,該數字略低於我們第四季度的支出。這是可以預料到的。與一些補救活動相關的費用時間方面會有一些起伏。我確實預計,一些與監控成本等相關的回顧費用將在今年下半年變得更加重要。

  • So there'll be a little bit of staging, but we feel quite comfortable with the guidance of $500 million. As I've shared with you in the past, we're pretty far along the remediation program. Some of the more complex elements of the remediation program around technology infrastructure. We've already released a number of releases on our transaction monitoring platform, which are some of the longer pole type items. So generally speaking, feel quite comfortable with the overall guidance of $500 million.

    因此會有一點點階段性的變化,但我們對 5 億美元的指導金額感到相當滿意。正如我過去與大家分享的那樣,我們的補救計劃已經取得了相當大的進展。補救計畫中圍繞技術基礎設施的一些更複雜的要素。我們已經在交易監控平台上發布了一些版本,其中有一些較長的桿型項目。因此總體來說,對於 5 億美元的整體指導價格我感到比較放心。

  • Ray?

    射線?

  • Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

    Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

  • And Paul, I think Leo has covered it well. We have been at this for a little bit, and we have a detailed action plan on what the remediation efforts need to be. I think the piece that he flagged on the look back is a piece that, as we go through that, Paul, we'll update you if there's anything that comes from the look back. But that's the one that I would say that will take a little bit of time as we go through that process. But we have actually budgeted in the sense of the $500 million. And then if there's more beyond that, we'll update all of you as we go along.

    保羅,我認為利奧已經很好地涵蓋了這一點。我們已經為此努力了一段時間,並且制定了詳細的行動計劃,說明需要採取哪些補救措施。我認為他在回顧中標記的部分是,保羅,當我們討論這個問題時,如果回顧中有任何進展,我們會向你通報。但我想說,這個過程需要一點時間。但我們實際上已經按照 5 億美元編制了預算。如果還有更多消息,我們會及時向大家通報。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

    加布里埃爾·德尚(Gabriel Dechaine),國家金融銀行。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • I guess I'll start with expenses. So 12% expense growth, a third of that was variable comp related in FX. So let's say, 8% to measure up against your guidance. A little bit above that, you're saying Q2, you'll have another expense uptick. And then I would assume that means in the second half expense growth (inaudible) it doesn't fall off a cliff, but drops well below that full year range? Is that how we're expecting it to play out?

    我想我應該先從費用開始。因此,12% 的費用成長中,三分之一是與外匯相關的可變薪酬。因此,假設該比例為 8%,以符合您的指導。稍微高於這個數字,您說第二季度您的支出將再次增加。然後我會假設這意味著下半年的費用成長(聽不清楚)不會急劇下降,而是遠低於全年範圍?這就是我們所期待的結果嗎?

  • Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

    Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

  • It's Kelvin. That's right, Gabe. So the year-over-year increase in Q2 is really due to the profile from last year. So if (inaudible) Q2 was a little bit lower back in '24. And because of the ramp up, you would see a higher year-over-year uptake. And you're right that we expect the second half of the year, the year-over-year expense growth would be moderating.

    是開爾文。沒錯,加布。因此,第二季度的同比增長實際上是由於去年的情況。因此,如果(聽不清楚)Q2 在 24 年稍微低一點。而且由於成長勢頭強勁,您會看到同比成長率更高。您說得對,我們預計今年下半年的年比支出成長將會放緩。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • And that's despite what Lee was just saying as far as there's going to be a seasonal increase in AML remediation costs in the second half?

    儘管李剛才說過下半年反洗錢補救成本將出現季節性成長,但情況確實如此嗎?

  • Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

    Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

  • That's right. Like that we're talking about total bank expenses here. (inaudible) business also in Q2, you would expect a year-over-year higher expense growth as well for Q2.

    這是正確的。就像我們在這裡談論的銀行總支出一樣。 (聽不清楚) 同樣在第二季的業務,您會預期第二季的費用年增率也會更高。

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Yes. And Gabe, maybe I can just jump in on that, just to give you some clarity. So you're right, first and second quarter will have elevated expense growth numbers. But to the point that Kelvin raised and very similar to the shape at the overall group level, the back notwithstanding that some of the remediation costs might increase the year-on-year comparisons will moderate the rate of growth quite substantially. So I just wanted to leave you with that clarity.

    是的。加布,也許我可以插話說一下,只是為了讓你明白一些事情。所以你說得對,第一季和第二季的費用成長數字將會上升。但正如 Kelvin 提出的那樣,與整個集團層面的情況非常相似,儘管部分補救成本可能會增加,但同比來看,成長率將大幅放緩。所以我只是想讓你們清楚這一點。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Now other question about the performing provision this quarter, a release. And you gave an explanation there that was helpful. The model refinements for the US current portfolio? I don't even know what goes in that. So that's fine, I guess.

    現在關於本季履行條款的另一個問題是一個發布。您給的解釋很有幫助。美國當前投資組合的模型改進?我什至不知道這裡面發生了什麼事。所以我想這樣就很好了。

  • But then the improvement to the macroeconomic outlook, kind of may be split out my coffee a bit. What are we talking about here? And I think we're all in agreement. There's a lot of uncertainty out there. The Canadian economy, at least, is really decelerating. And is it a matter of you had really conservative assumptions, and they're just not as bad as you assumed. I'm trying to understand why there is a deviation in your messaging versus certainly what we're seeing from other banks.

    但宏觀經濟前景的改善可能會讓我的咖啡有點分心。我們在這裡談論什麼?我想我們都同意這一點。外面有很多不確定性。至少加拿大經濟確實正在減速。問題是您的假設非常保守,事實並沒有您想像的那麼糟糕。我試圖了解為什麼你們傳達的訊息與我們從其他銀行看到的訊息有差異。

  • Ajai Bambawale - Group Head, Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Group

    Ajai Bambawale - Group Head, Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Group

  • I do feel our messaging is quite consistent, but let me explain the moving parts to you. So performing PCL -- go into a little detail. So the macro and the Canadian macro, we actually, in our scenario, in our base case, had GDP slightly better unemployment, lower better [HPI]. And again, keep in mind, this is all done in a point in time, okay? [The scenario] and the models drove a release in macro, okay?

    我確實覺得我們傳達的訊息非常一致,但請讓我向您解釋其中的變化部分。因此執行 PCL -- 詳細說明一下。因此,在我們的情景中,加拿大的宏觀經濟實際上在我們的基本情況下,GDP 略好於失業率,失業率較低[熱能參數]。再說一次,請記住,這一切都是在某個時間點完成的,好嗎?[場景]和模型推動了宏觀層面的發布,好嗎?

  • Then we had a model update in cards and that model update essentially we used better predictive variables and there was better segmentation of risk across the TD bands. That drove another release in performing. What we did is we took a step back and looked at all the industries that may be impacted by tariffs we looked at potential risk migration. Again, this was based on an initial view. And keep in mind, this is all as at January 31, and we created an overlay of $149 million.

    然後,我們對卡片進行了模型更新,該模型更新本質上我們使用了更好的預測變量,並且在 TD 帶內對風險進行了更好的細分。這推動了表演的另一個釋放。我們所做的是退一步思考,研究了所有可能受到關稅影響的產業,並研究了潛在的風險轉移。再次強調,這只是基於初步觀點。請記住,這些都是截至 1 月 31 日的數據,我們創建了 1.49 億美元的覆蓋範圍。

  • And I do believe that's pretty similar to the approach of others. I think the difference with us is there are certain factors, the model being a material one that drove a release. So we overrode those releases through the overlay.

    我確實相信這與其他人的方法非常相似。我認為我們的不同之處在於存在某些因素,模型是推動發布的重要因素。因此,我們透過覆蓋覆蓋了這些版本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • I guess maybe first question maybe for Ray and Leo both. But I think, Ray, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned you might identify the need to make strategic investments. And then I think Leo mentioned about looking for other portfolio exits. As we think about -- so it's not AML related, but as we think about the outlook for investment spend, expense growth, does that leave the door open where expense growth could ramp up as you identify more investment opportunities? Or is that going to be concurrent with things that you talked about?

    我想第一個問題可能是針對 Ray 和 Leo 兩人的。但是,雷,我認為,在您準備好的發言中,您提到您可能認識到需要進行策略性投資。然後我認為 Leo 提到了尋找其他投資組合退出。正如我們所想的 - 所以這與反洗錢無關,但是當我們考慮投資支出、費用增長的前景時,這是否為您發現更多的投資機會時費用增長是否可能加速留下了空間?或者這會與您談論的事情同時發生嗎?

  • And same thing on the portfolio exits, is that partly the reason why you're operating with a much higher CET1 is to give yourself room to restructure and exit some loans or sort of small business lines and take charges and move on? Would love color on both those.

    投資組合退出也是一樣,您以更高的 CET1 進行運營的部分原因是否是為了給自己留出空間來重組和退出一些貸款或小型業務線並承擔費用並繼續前進?很喜歡這兩款的顏色。

  • Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

    Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

  • Maybe I'll start, Ebrahim. On our strategic review, as I outlined on Slide 3, one of the pillars is on the drive efficiency, operational excellence and -- so from a cost optimization, we're going deep to rightsize our cost base, Ebrahim, and some of that then will provide us the opportunity to invest in the capabilities in some of the areas of the organization.

    也許我先開始,易卜拉欣。在我們的策略評估中,正如我在第 3 張投影片中所概述的那樣,其中一個支柱是推動效率、卓越營運——因此從成本優化的角度來看,我們正在深入調整我們的成本基礎,易卜拉欣,其中的一些將為我們提供投資於組織某些領域能力的機會。

  • And so sort of self-funding in many cases, some of those opportunities, but we also then have identified through the strategic review, some significant organic growth opportunities, and we'll be using some of the proceeds from that side of it. So think of it as in the fact that we will manage our expenses. So the guidance for the balance of this year is still 5% to 7%. And as we move forward, we will continue to invest in our business, but then manage our expenses back down to a more normalized growth.

    因此,在許多情況下,這些機會都是自籌資金的,但我們也透過策略評估確定了一些重要的有機成長機會,我們將使用其中的部分收益。所以,就把它想像成我們將管理我們的開支。因此今年的餘額指引仍為5%至7%。隨著我們不斷前進,我們將繼續對我們的業務進行投資,同時將我們的開支控制在更正常化的成長水平。

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • No. We're following the same logic, maybe if I could just take a step back to give you a sense of how we're thinking about the US. First and foremost, I feel like we're making very good progress on both the AML remediation and the investment bond repositioning and the broader balance sheet restructuring program. I think on all three fronts, we've essentially executed on the things that we've laid out to do. I think as we think about the outlook for the business, I think I feel there's a number of factors that point to a very positive outlook.

    不。我們遵循相同的邏輯,也許我可以退一步讓你了解我們是如何看待美國。首先,我覺得我們在反洗錢整治、投資債券重新定位和更廣泛的資產負債表重組計劃方面都取得了非常好的進展。我認為在這三個方面,我們基本上都執行了我們所設定的目標。我認為,當我們思考業務前景時,有許多因素表明前景非常樂觀。

  • First, we're trading as a result of the investment bond repositioning, we will be on the upper end of our range, and that's positive. So we're ahead of schedule with regards to our overall investment bond repositioning. I think we're also seeing medium-term rates a little stronger. And as a result, tractor on rates are a little bit better and therefore, that will be constructive from a revenue standpoint. We are seeing in our core areas of growth we're seeing good volumes.

    首先,我們的交易是投資債券重新定位的結果,我們將處於區間的上限,這是正面的。因此,我們的整體投資債券重新定位已經提前完成了。我認為我們也會看到中期利率略有走強。因此,拖拉機的費率會略有提高,從收入的角度來看,這將是有建設性的。我們看到,我們的核心成長領域正在呈現良好的成長動能。

  • Our bank cards business was up 12% and our mid-market business, up 7%, just to highlight two areas that we have previously expressed a degree to sort of lean into and our wealth business was up 11% in the quarter. So some of the businesses that you and I have talked about in terms of the criticality for the franchise to perform well. From an expense standpoint, to your question, our challenge is that we've got to absorb the restructuring costs. And so we are being very deliberate and very mindful about generating productivity where we can to be able to create the space to invest in those significant remediation efforts and nothing -- that is our first priority. We're going to do what we need to do to make sure that we're addressing that fully.

    我們的銀行卡業務成長了 12%,中端市場業務成長了 7%,這只是我們之前表達過的要傾斜的兩個領域,我們的財富業務在本季度增長了 11%。因此,您和我討論過的一些業務對於特許經營表現良好至關重要。從費用角度來看,對於您的問題,我們的挑戰是我們必須吸收重組成本。因此,我們非常謹慎並非常注意在可能的情況下提高生產力,以便能夠創造空間來投資那些重大的補救工作,這是我們的首要任務。我們將採取必要措施確保徹底解決此問題。

  • But I do think that some of the work that we're doing will allow us to be able to invest selectively in the areas that I think will be critical for our future, whether that be cards, wealth or digital strategy. So we are trying to, as Ray said, create the capacity in order to be able to not only address the foundational investments that we need to make on remediation but also selectively, and I do emphasize selectively because the strategic review is forcing us to make some significant choices, invest in those areas that I think will be quite positive. You put all that together, and I think -- two big conclusions. One, I do think we'll be able to generate return on equity improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis through this year and into next year. And secondly, I do think we returned to a positive [NIM] profile as we go into 2026.

    但我確實認為,我們正在做的一些工作將使我們能夠有選擇地投資於我認為對我們的未來至關重要的領域,無論是信用卡、財富還是數位策略。因此,正如雷所說,我們正在努力創造能力,以便不僅能夠解決我們需要在補救方面進行的基礎性投資,而且能夠有選擇地進行投資,我確實強調有選擇地進行投資,因為戰略評估迫使我們做出一些重大選擇,在那些我認為會非常積極的領域進行投資。如果你把所有這些放在一起,我認為——就會得出兩個重要結論。首先,我確實認為今年和明年我們的股本回報率將能夠逐季提高。其次,我確實認為,隨著 2026 年的到來,我們的 [NIM] 狀況將恢復正成長。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • And just one quick follow-up. Maybe it's quick. Kelvin, you mentioned NIM expansion should be substantial. I would appreciate if you could quantify that in what you expect either at segment level or consolidated level?

    最後再跟進一下。或許很快。凱爾文,你提到 NIM 擴充應該是實質的。如果您能根據細分層面或合併層面對此進行量化,我將非常感激?

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Maybe I'll follow-up, Ebrahim, just on the US business because it's where that substantial adjective was applied, I think we are -- there's going to be two big factors or two big drivers driving that. One, we'll further normalize to the question that Paul raised earlier, we'll continue to normalize liquidity. And that will have an impact in the quarter. And secondly, we'll get sort of a full quarter's impact of the bond repositioning activity that we did in the first quarter.

    也許我會跟進 Ebrahim,只談論美國業務,因為那裡應用了那個實質性形容詞,我認為我們 - 會有兩個大因素或兩個大驅動因素推動這一點。首先,我們將進一步規範保羅先前提出的問題,我們將繼續規範流動性。這將對本季產生影響。其次,我們將獲得第一季進行的債券重新定位活動對整個季度的影響。

  • Both of those items will substantially move the NIM for the US business. thereafter, coming back to the point I raised before, I do think that the rate structures right now with higher medium-term rates will be constructive for modest NIM expansion thereafter.

    這兩項都將大幅影響美國業務的淨利。此後,回到我先前提出的觀點,我確實認為,目前中期利率較高的利率結構將有利於此後淨利差的適度擴張。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Meny Grauman, Scotiabank.

    Meny Grauman,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Meny Grauman - Analyst

    Meny Grauman - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on some of the expense questions that Paul asked at the beginning of the call. Specifically, if I'm looking at the US. I'm looking at a sequential decline in expenses on an adjusted basis. So I think you touched on it, but I want to make sure I understand it. What's driving that sequential decline?

    我想跟進保羅在通話開始時提出的一些費用問題。具體來說,如果我看美國。我正在研究調整後支出的連續下降。所以我想你已經提到了這一點,但我想確保我理解了這一點。是什麼導致了這種連續的下滑?

  • I wouldn't have expected that given the incremental remediation costs but I think you mentioned something about timing, but I just wanted to understand what's going on here and what to expect going forward from a sequential basis?

    考慮到增量補救成本,我不會想到這一點,但我認為您提到了有關時間的問題,但我只是想了解這裡發生了什麼以及從連續的基礎上可以預期會發生什麼?

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Thanks for the question. Just to remind you on in the fourth quarter, we did have two lumpy items. We had a sign-on bonus related to Nordstrom, and we also had the CFPB settlement that we concluded in the fourth quarter. So when you adjust for those factors, it sort of neutralizes the sort of sequential decline. As we move forward, as I've talked about before, I would expect that towards the second half of the year, the rate of growth would moderate.

    謝謝你的提問。需要提醒您的是,在第四季度,我們確實遇到了兩個不尋常的問題。我們有與諾德斯特龍 (Nordstrom) 相關的簽約獎金,並且我們還與消費者金融保護局 (CFPB) 在第四季度達成了和解協議。因此,當你調整這些因素時,它會在某種程度上抵消連續的下降。正如我之前談到的,隨著我們繼續前進,我預計今年下半年成長率將會放緩。

  • We were up 11% on a year-on-year basis in the quarter, of which our governance and control costs represented about 7% of that growth. So our base growth rate was 4%. And I do think we continue, as I said before, to look at productivity measures that will give us the space to continue to invest not only in governance and control initiatives, but on some of the critical business priorities that I highlighted previously.

    本季我們的銷售額年增了 11%,其中治理和控製成本約佔成長的 7%。因此我們的基本成長率是4%。正如我之前所說,我確實認為我們會繼續研究生產力衡量標準,這將使我們有空間繼續投資於治理和控制舉措,以及我之前強調的一些關鍵業務重點。

  • Meny Grauman - Analyst

    Meny Grauman - Analyst

  • That makes sense. And then I just wanted to follow up on -- you talked about $149 million overlay. Just wanted to understand at a high level, obviously, how do you calculate that? How do you derive that $149 million?

    這很有道理。然後我只是想跟進一下 - 您談到了 1.49 億美元的覆蓋範圍。只是想從高層次理解,顯然,你是如何計算的?這1.49億美元是怎麼得來的?

  • Ajai Bambawale - Group Head, Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Group

    Ajai Bambawale - Group Head, Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Group

  • This is based on a top-down analysis we did on industries that may be impacted by tariffs and what we really considered is risk rating migrations, and we use that risk rating migration to extrapolate what the impact could be and our ACL process or allowance process essentially captured that initial view on how risk ratings may migrate and the migration was a little different for the US commercial book as opposed to the Canadian commercial or TD securities book.

    這是基於我們對可能受關稅影響的行業進行的自上而下的分析,我們真正考慮的是風險評級遷移,我們使用該風險評級遷移來推斷可能產生的影響,並且我們的 ACL 流程或準備金流程基本上捕捉了對風險評級如何遷移的初步看法,美國商業賬簿與加拿大商業或 TD 證券賬簿的遷移略有不同。

  • But again, it was a top-down analysis. It's an initial analysis there is more work going on. We're doing a lot more bottom-up work for the next quarter. And of course, we'll have to see how the macro scenario evolves. I think you know that there are so many different scenarios that could play out. So saying anything beyond that at this stage is a little difficult.

    但再次強調,這是一個自上而下的分析。這是初步分析,還有更多工作正在進行中。我們將為下個季度做更多自下而上的工作。當然,我們也必須觀察宏觀情景如何發展。我想您知道,可能會出現許多不同的情況。因此,現階段要說出更多這一點還有點困難。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Lee, Canaccord Genuity.

    Canaccord Genuity 的 Matthew Lee。

  • Matthew Lee - Analyst

    Matthew Lee - Analyst

  • Maybe a different type of question. On the Canadian mortgage book, flat growth quarter over quarter and a bit lower than some of the peers. Maybe just talk about what you're seeing in that business and how we should think about growth (inaudible) through the year?

    也許是不同類型的問題。就加拿大抵押貸款帳簿而言,季度環比增長持平,且略低於一些同業。也許只是談談您對該業務的看法以及我們應該如何看待全年的成長(聽不清楚)?

  • Sona Mehta - Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking

    Sona Mehta - Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking

  • Matt, thanks for that. This is Sona, I'll take that. let me start by saying we've been very declarative in our Investor Day aspirations. This is a business that we like that we want to grow, and we're continuing to compete to win profitable business. So I can just walk you through some of the fundamentals and how we think about this book.

    馬特,謝謝你。這是索娜 (Sona),我接受。首先我要說的是,我們對投資人日的願望已經非常明確了。我們喜歡這個業務,我們希望它能夠發展,並且我們將繼續競爭以贏得有利可圖的業務。因此我可以向您介紹一些基本內容以及我們對這本書的看法。

  • First of all, we're through the cycle multi-channel lender. That's really important. That gives us great reach. And then within that portfolio, especially over the last couple of quarters, we've been leaning in to enhance how we go to market, especially in our proprietary channels. So a few things that we've done.

    首先,我們是透過週期多通路貸款人。這真的很重要。這給了我們很大的影響力。然後在該投資組合中,特別是在過去幾個季度,我們一直在努力增強我們的市場進入方式,特別是在我們的專有管道。我們做了一些事情。

  • This quarter, as Ray shared, we rolled out (inaudible) specialists as well as investing specialists in our highest opportunity branches. And so we've thoughtfully enhanced that integration between our branch and [our mortgage] sales force at the same time. We're seeing really promising results. So referrals from our branch to our MMS have tripled quarter-over-quarter. It's translating into real dollars.

    正如 Ray 所分享的,本季我們在機會最多的分店推出了(聽不清楚)專家以及投資專家。因此,我們同時深思熟慮地加強了我們的分行和(我們的抵押貸款)銷售團隊之間的整合。我們看到了非常有希望的結果。因此,我們分公司向 MMS 提出的建議量較上季增加了兩倍。它正在轉換成真實的美元。

  • We've delivered $1 billion in funded volumes through that channel alone and it's been the best Q1 on record for MMS. So back to your question. Now overall growth will vary from quarter-to-quarter, but the fundamentals are absolutely pointed in the right direction. I think you typically see some seasonality that's lower in Q1 but ultimately, this is a good book. We compete to win profitable business.

    我們僅透過該管道就提供了 10 億美元的融資額,這是 MMS 有史以來最好的第一季業績。回到你的問題。現在整體成長每季都會有所不同,但基本面絕對是朝著正確的方向發展的。我認為你通常會看到第一季的一些季節性較低,但最終,這是一本好書。我們競爭是為了贏得有利可圖的業務。

  • We're seeing really good results in our proprietary channels. We're also seeing depth of relationship improve up nicely year-over-year among our (inaudible) customers. So I'd probably sum up by saying our aspirations are declarative, they're bold, we like the strength that we're seeing in our proprietary ecosystem, and we're going to continue to compete to unprofitable business.

    我們在專有頻道中看到了非常好的效果。我們也看到,我們(聽不清楚)客戶之間的關係深度逐年改善。因此,我總結一下,我們的願望是明確的、大膽的,我們喜歡我們在專有生態系統中看到的力量,我們將繼續競爭無利可圖的業務。

  • Matthew Lee - Analyst

    Matthew Lee - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. So nothing particular in the quarter that might have affected growth other than maybe seasonality.

    好的。偉大的。因此,除了季節性因素外,本季沒有特別的因素可能影響成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets.

    道格楊 (Doug Young),Desjardins 資本市場。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Just maybe just a few quick ones, hopefully. US NIMs, just to go back to that, when you say normalized, like should we be thinking going back to around the 3% level where you kind of worked before Q1. And then expanding out from there, just hoping to get a finer point on that. And then you're going to have some excess liquidity coming from the Schwab sale. I assume it doesn't impact the US NIMs, does that kind of filter up and impact the all bank NIMs?

    希望只是幾個簡單的問題。回到美國淨利息收益率 (NIM) 這個問題,當您說正常化時,我們是否應該考慮回到第一季之前的 3% 左右的水平。然後從那裡向外擴展,只是希望能夠獲得更精細的點。然後你將從嘉信理財的出售中獲得一些過剩的流動性。我認為它不會影響美國的淨利息收益率 (NIM),但它會過濾掉所有銀行的淨利息收益率 (NIM) 並對其產生影響嗎?

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Doug, just to give you a sense, well, we won't provide a specific guidance on the call. What I can tell you is if you look back to where we were before, we put on the liquidity position that we did in late third quarter, fourth quarter. And you look at that NIM level, returning back to that NIM level would not be an unreasonable assumption. So then you combine that with the bond repositioning piece, which will be an enhancement to NII. I think if you model that, that will give you a good sense of where we'll probably land from a NIM standpoint.

    道格,只是為了讓你了解一下,我們不會在電話中提供具體的指導。我可以告訴你的是,如果你回顧我們之前的情況,你會發現我們在第三季末和第四季就建立了流動性部位。如果你看一下 NIM 水平,回到該 NIM 水平並不是一個不合理的假設。所以,你把它與債券重新定位部分結合起來,這將增強 NII。我認為,如果您對此進行建模,那麼您將很好地了解從 NIM 的角度我們可能到達的位置。

  • Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

    Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

  • Doug, it's Kelvin here. On the Schwab earnings, on the Schwab proceeds, you would see that in the corporate banks.

    道格,我是凱爾文。從嘉信理財的獲利和收益來看,你會在企業銀行中看到這一點。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Okay. So that would impact in, I guess, marginally, the all bank.

    好的。因此,我猜這會對所有銀行產生一定的影響。

  • Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

    Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

  • On the total bank.

    在總銀行。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Yes. On the total bank level And then, Leo, just to clarify that $300 million to $500 million -- I mean that's not a new number you're looking to be at the upper end of that. Is that $300 million to $500 million or let's call it $500 million, is that going to be in for the full -- are you expecting that to be in for the full year of fiscal '25 or be on a run rate exiting '25 at that level?

    是的。就銀行總體水平而言,Leo,需要澄清的是,3 億到 5 億美元 — — 我的意思是,這不是一個新數字,您希望達到這個數字的上限。這個數字是 3 億到 5 億美元,還是就叫 5 億美元呢?

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • No. That's an in-year profile. And just to give you a bit more information that we reflected about $46 million related to the bond repositioning in the first quarter. So the lion's share number will materialize over the subsequent quarters.

    不。這是年度概況。為了給您更多信息,我們反映了第一季與債券重新定位相關的約 4600 萬美元。因此,最大份額的數字將在接下來的幾個季度內實現。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • And then I guess over 4% CET1 ratio, you described the buybacks -- a lot of discussion around an ability to put capital to work organically. I mean that's a lot of capital to put to (inaudible) can you talk about 3 to 4 of the biggest opportunities to really drive -- where are you going to invest that capital? I assume it's a bunch of areas, including capital markets. I'm just trying to get a sense, but better sense of how to think about that.

    然後我想超過 4% 的 CET1 比率,你描述了回購——很多討論都是圍繞著將資本有機地投入使用的能力。我的意思是,需要投入大量的資金(聽不清楚),您能談談真正推動的 3 到 4 個最大的機會嗎——您打算把這些資金投資到哪裡?我認為這涉及很多領域,包括資本市場。我只是想了解一下,但要更了解如何去思考這個問題。

  • Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

    Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

  • Doug, I'll take that. As I said on the strategic review, we're still going through the process. We're about halfway through the strategic rate, just so we get a sense of time lines. Well, we are looking at it in multiple different buckets where we're going to allocate our capital. And so we start with that we've identified the significant organic opportunities, and we'll start to share some of those potentially along the way and then certainly at the Investor Day.

    道格,我接受。正如我在策略評估中所說的那樣,我們仍在經歷這個過程。我們大約已經達到了戰略利率的一半,這樣我們就能了解時間表。嗯,我們正在從多個不同角度考慮如何分配我們的資本。因此,我們首先確定了重要的有機機會,然後我們將開始分享其中的一些潛在機會,當然也會在投資者日分享。

  • But we are also looking to simplify the portfolios and you've seen some of the actions that we've already taken. We'll continue to look at opportunities to optimize our balance sheet and that could be in the form of restructuring that could be in the form of potential revisiting our investment bond portfolio and see if there's further actions that we want to take there. And then also then looking at our portfolio and to see which businesses that we may look at from an optimization perspective, and we've done some of those activities, but we have some more to look at. And then there's some other efficiency opportunities that we'll be looking at. So certainly, as I said before, I don't want to front run the strategic review, but what we will do is as we continue to make some of these decisions start to share those with you.

    但我們也希望簡化投資組合,您已經看到我們已經採取的一些行動。我們將繼續尋找優化資產負債表的機會,可以是重組的形式,也可以是重新審視我們的投資債券投資組合的形式,看看我們是否想採取進一步的行動。然後我們再查看我們的投資組合,看看我們可以從優化的角度來關注哪些業務,我們已經做了一些活動,但我們還有更多需要考慮的。然後我們也將關註一些其他的效率機會。所以當然,正如我之前所說,我不想搶先進行戰略評估,但我們會在繼續做出一些決定時開始與你們分享這些決定。

  • But I do look forward to sharing the more comprehensive review and where we're going to allocate that capital at the Investor Day. And at the end of that, if there is still capital remaining, I've said on the previous calls, that then we would look at a potential another share buyback.

    但我確實期待在投資者日分享更全面的審查以及我們將如何分配這些資金。最後,如果還有剩餘資本,那麼正如我在之前的電話會議上所說的那樣,我們將考慮進行另一次股票回購。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Darko Mihelic, RBC Capital Markets.

    Darko Mihelic,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • I have just a couple of detailed questions on the US business as well. I appreciate the suggestion that your NIM will expand meaningfully or substantially next quarter. But your NIM and your NII have a few -- well, a lot of moving parts. So I was just wondering if you could provide maybe a range of NII for next quarter for me to work off for the model?

    我也有幾個關於美國業務的詳細問題。我很欣賞您所說的下個季度的 NIM 將有意義或大幅擴大的建議。但是您的 NIM 和 NII 有幾個——嗯,很多活動部件。所以我只是想知道您是否可以提供下個季度的 NII 範圍以供我根據該模型進行工作?

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Darko, Well, let me just give you a sense of the drivers that you might want to think about. Clearly, I've given you a sense of where the bond repositioning piece is going to land, and you can sort of get a sense of -- we take the residual amount and that three quarters left. You can get a sense of what that lift is going to look like. I can tell you that the on rates right now that we're seeing is about 50 basis points higher than they were just a few months ago. And so obviously, that will be a tailwind that we'll start to enjoy maybe less so in the first half of the year, but more so towards the second half of the year.

    達科,好吧,讓我給你介紹一下你可能想要考慮的驅動因素。顯然,我已經讓您了解了債券重新定位部分將會落到何處,並且您可以大致了解——我們取剩餘金額和剩下的四分之三。您可以大致了解一下電梯的樣子。我可以告訴你,我們現在看到的利率比幾個月前高出了約 50 個基點。顯然,這將是一個順風,我們在上半年可能享受得較少,但在下半年會更加享受。

  • I'd say in terms of the underlying growth, we will be exiting a series of portfolios. So as we communicated to you back on October 10, there isn't an [eye drag] from exiting some of those lower-yielding portfolios. I think at that point in time, we did estimate that would be about a $250 million impact. So if you model that and then assume that in our core lines of businesses, I'm using our core bank cards business, our home equity line of business and our commercial and those segments in commercial, we're seeing good growth.

    我想說,就潛在成長而言,我們將退出一系列投資組合。因此,正如我們在 10 月 10 日向您傳達的那樣,退出一些收益較低的投資組合併不會產生任何 [眼球拖累]。我認為在那個時候我們確實估計這會產生約 2.5 億美元的影響。因此,如果您對此進行建模,然後假設在我們的核心業務線中,我正在使用我們的核心銀行卡業務,我們的房屋淨值業務線以及我們的商業和商業中的那些部分,我們看到良好的成長。

  • I will say that I do believe, despite the fact that there is general optimism in the US with regards to our commercial clients are optimistic about the expansionary sort of deregulatory discussions that the current administration has laid out. I do think that some of the commercial lines might be a little bit more muted. But if you put all those things together, I think it lays out a relatively constructive backdrop for NIM expansion and for NII growth over the course of the year. And obviously, we'll try to continue, as Ray said, we'll try to continue to maximize those actions as we can. But I want to come back to maybe the obvious statement.

    我想說的是,儘管美國國內普遍對我們的商業客戶持樂觀態度,但我確實相信,他們對現任政府提出的擴張性放鬆管制討論也持樂觀態度。我確實認為一些商業廣告可能應該更低調一些。但如果把所有這些因素綜合起來,我認為這為全年的 NIM 擴張和 NII 成長奠定了相對有利的背景。顯然,正如雷所說,我們會盡力繼續下去,我們會盡力發揮這些行動的作用。但我想回到那個顯而易見的陳述上。

  • Our focus here is to leverage 2025 as that transition year, to make the investments we need to in the core franchise to be able to address some of our remediation activities and to be able to exit 2025, exhibiting the earnings power of the US franchise. And so we're doing those things to be able to enter into 2026 with a more normalized profile.

    我們的重點是利用 2025 年作為過渡年,對核心特許經營進行必要的投資,以便能夠解決我們的一些補救活動,並能夠在 2025 年退出,展示美國特許經營的盈利能力。所以我們做這些事情是為了能夠以更規範的形象進入 2026 年。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • Thank you. I'll go get back to the drawing board on that. That is useful though I appreciate that, Leo. Kelvin, just at the all-bank level, there was some margin compression and I'm just wondering, given everything that's at play, would your view be for the all bank margin going forward?

    謝謝。我將重新開始考慮這個問題。儘管這很有用,但我還是很感激,Leo。凱爾文,僅在全銀行層面,利潤率就有所壓縮,我只是想知道,考慮到目前發生的所有事情,您是否認為未來全銀行的利潤率會有所上升?

  • Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

    Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

  • Yes. So the NIM at the total bank level would have been positive quarter-over-quarter from the retail businesses. But the decline was really driven by the wholesale bank due to some business volumes, and I'm going to ask him to just speak to those opportunities.

    是的。因此,銀行整體零售業務的淨利差將比上一季呈現正成長。但由於部分業務量的下降,批發銀行的下滑其實是推動因素,我將請他談談這些機會。

  • Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

    Leovigildo Salom - Group Head U.S. Retail, TD Bank Group and President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank

  • Yes. Darko, essentially, what's driving that is higher asset levels in prime. So as you know, those are lower interest paying deposits, but extremely attractive from an ROE perspective, just given the RWA treatment. So what you're really seeing at play there is the continued focus on growing our prime franchise.

    是的。達科 (Darko),從本質上講,推動這一趨勢的因素是主要市場的資產水準提高。所以如您所知,這些都是支付利息較低的存款,但從 ROE 的角度來看,考慮到 RWA 處理,它們極具吸引力。因此,您真正看到的是我們繼續致力於發展我們的主要特許經營權。

  • Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

    Kelvin Tran - Group Head and Chief Financial Officer, TD Bank Group

  • So we did guide to (technical difficulty) and see NIM is relatively stable US substantially expansions and then you also have tailwind from the Schwab earnings as well. So all of those are headed towards on the positive side.

    因此,我們確實引導了(技術難度)並看到 NIM 相對穩定,美國大幅擴張,然後你也會從嘉信理財的收益中獲得順風。所以所有這些都是朝著正面的一面發展的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I will now return the call back to Raymond Chun.

    謝謝。目前還沒有其他問題。我現在將回電給 Raymond Chun。

  • Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

    Raymond Chun - Group Head, Wealth Management and TD Insurance, TD Bank Group

  • Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking again at our Q2 call in May. And ahead of that is obviously our annual meeting in April. And so I hope everyone has a great rest of the day. Thank you.

    好吧,感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 5 月的第二季電話會議上再次與您交談。顯然,在此之前我們將於四月舉行年度會議。我希望大家今天剩下的時間都能過得愉快。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。會議現已結束。請立即斷開您的線路,感謝您的參與。