Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage company second quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加 Molson Coors 飲料公司 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。

With that, I'll hand it over to Traci Mangini, Vice President, Investor Relations.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給投資者關係副總裁 Traci Mangini。

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of US federal securities laws. For more information, please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure in our earnings release. In addition, the definitions of a reconciliations for any non-US GAAP measures are included in our earnings release.

謝謝接線員，大家好。我們今天的討論包括美國聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。欲了解更多信息，請參閱我們的收益報告中的前瞻性聲明披露。此外，我們的收益報告還包含任何非美國 GAAP 指標的調整定義。

Given our quarterly performance, including financial and operational metrics and drivers is detailed in our earnings release and earnings slides, which were made available earlier today on the IR section of our website. We will focus our prepared remarks on what we believe is top of mind for you, and that is the industry, how we're responding, capital allocation and our financial outlook.

鑑於我們的季度業績，包括財務和營運指標和驅動因素，詳細說明了我們的收益報告和收益幻燈片，這些內容已於今天早些時候在我們網站的 IR 部分發布。我們將把準備好的評論重點放在我們認為您最關心的問題上，即行業、我們的應對方式、資本配置和我們的財務前景。

And please note that given the current environment, we are providing a more detailed than typical review of our 2025 guidance drivers. (Operator Instructions)

請注意，鑑於當前環境，我們對 2025 年指導驅動因素的審查比以往更為詳細。（操作員指示）

With that, I'll pass it over to you, Gavin.

說完這些，我就把它交給你了，加文。

Thank you, Traci. Hello, everybody, and thank you for joining the call. During the second quarter, we continued to execute against our strategic plans to support our long-term growth objectives and to return cash to shareholders while navigating a challenging and volatile macro environment.

謝謝你，特蕾西。大家好，感謝大家參加電話會議。在第二季度，我們繼續執行我們的策略計劃，以支持我們的長期成長目標，並在應對充滿挑戰和動盪的宏觀環境的同時向股東返還現金。

As a result of the uncertainty around the effects of geopolitical events and global trade and immigration policies, consumer sentiment in the US has remained at relatively low historical levels.

由於地緣政治事件以及全球貿易和移民政策的影響存在不確定性，美國消費者信心一直處於歷史相對較低的水平。

This has continued to pressure consumption trends. These macro impacts in the US have had a disproportionate effect on the lower income in Hispanic consumer. And within beer, these consumer segments have driven the reduction in the number of buyers as well as spend with a shift to singles in the second quarter.

這持續給消費趨勢帶來壓力。美國的這些宏觀影響對西班牙裔消費者的低收入產生了不成比例的影響。在啤酒領域，這些消費者群體在第二季度轉向單瓶啤酒，導致購買者數量和支出減少。

In addition, while less impactful certain regions of the US experienced some severe weather conditions during the quarter which had a notable impact on the important Memorial Day weekend. These factors have resulted in a much softer US beer industry so far this year than we had previously expected.

此外，儘管影響較小，但美國某些地區在本季度經歷了一些惡劣的天氣狀況，對重要的陣亡將士紀念日週末產生了明顯影響。這些因素導致今年迄今為止美國啤酒行業的表現比我們之前預期的要疲軟得多。

Recall our guidance issued on May 8 that assumed the US industry would improve for the balance of the year from down approximately 5% in the first quarter to levels closer to that of the last several years, which averaged down around 3%. But in the second quarter, the industry continued to be down around 5%.

回想一下我們 5 月 8 日發布的指導意見，該指導意見假設美國汽車行業在今年餘下時間裡將有所改善，從第一季的約 5% 的降幅回升至接近過去幾年的水平，後者的平均降幅約為 3%。但第二季度，該產業持續下滑5%左右。

Further, the Midwest premium pricing, which is a component of our aluminum cost has been indirectly impacted by recent US tariff announcements, causing another substantial and unexpected spike in the second quarter. For perspective and as you can clearly see on Slide 19 of our earnings deck, in July, the Midwest premium jumped to $0.68 per pound, an increase of over 180% since January.

此外，作為我們鋁成本組成部分的中西部溢價也間接受到美國近期關稅公告的影響，導致第二季鋁價格再次出現大幅意外飆升。從角度來看，正如您在我們收益報告的第 19 張幻燈片中清楚看到的那樣，7 月份，中西部溢價躍升至每磅 0.68 美元，自 1 月份以來上漲了 180% 以上。

As a result of these macro drivers and to a lesser degree, lower-than-expected share performance, we are reducing our top and bottom line guidance for 2025. We now expect net sales revenue to decline 3% to 4% on a constant currency basis as compared to a low single-digit decline previously. The range assumes US industry volume will decline between 4% and 6% for the second half of the year. We now expect underlying pretax income to decline 12% to 15% on a constant currency basis as compared to a low single-digit decline previously.

由於這些宏觀驅動因素以及程度較輕的低於預期的股票表現，我們下調了 2025 年的營收和利潤預期。我們現在預計淨銷售收入按固定匯率計算將下降 3% 至 4%，而先前的降幅僅為個位數。該預測範圍假設今年下半年美國工業產量將下降 4% 至 6%。我們現在預計，以固定匯率計算，基礎稅前收入將下降 12% 至 15%，而先前的降幅僅為個位數。

The range includes for the second half of the year, incremental costs specific to the Midwest premium of $20 million to $35 million which assumes a respective price per pound of $0.60 to $0.75. This is partly offset by lower expected incentive compensation given the change in outlook.

此範圍包括下半年中西部地區溢價相關的增加成本，預計為2000萬至3500萬美元，假設每磅價格為0.60至0.75美元。鑑於前景變化，預期激勵薪酬的降低部分抵消了這一成本。

As a result, we now expect underlying earnings per share to decline 7% to 10% as compared to low single-digit growth. However, we are reaffirming our underlying free cash flow guidance of $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%, as we expect higher cash tax benefits and favorable working capital to offset the guidance decline for underlying pretax income.

因此，我們現在預計每股基本收益將下降 7% 至 10%，而同期成長率將保持在個位數。然而，我們重申 13 億美元的基本自由現金流指引（上下浮動 10%），因為我們預計更高的現金稅收優惠和有利的營運資本將抵消基本稅前收入指引的下降。

Now Tracey will speak to our guidance in more detail in a moment. But first, I want to stress that we continue to view the incremental softness in the industry performance this year is cyclical, driven by the macroeconomic environment. And this belief in our view, is clearly demonstrated by the execution of our share repurchase program well ahead of our original expectations.

現在，Tracey 將更詳細地介紹我們的指導。但首先，我想強調的是，我們仍然認為今年產業表現的逐步疲軟是週期性的，並且受宏觀經濟環境的影響。我們認為，這一信念清楚地體現在我們的股票回購計畫的執行情況遠遠超出了我們最初的預期。

While US consumer basket sizes are smaller in the current environment, the percent of alcohol in those baskets has remained the same. And legal drinking age consumers continue to engage with beer at similar levels across all generations and compared to historical levels, it's the occasions that are left.

儘管在當前環境下美國消費者的購物籃規模較小，但購物籃中的酒精百分比保持不變。各代法定飲酒年齡的消費者對啤酒的參與程度都相似，與歷史水準相比，剩下的只是場合。

Recognizing this, our strategy was built to develop a portfolio that appeals to a wide range of preferences and captures more occasions. So as we navigate these macro pressures, we are continuing to execute the strategy and prudently invest behind our business. To build on the strength of our core power brands, to premiumize our business in both beer and beyond beer and to develop and leverage our capabilities and partnerships to support profitable growth.

認識到這一點，我們制定了策略來發展一個能夠滿足廣泛偏好並抓住更多場合的投資組合。因此，在應對這些宏觀壓力的同時，我們將繼續執行該策略並審慎地投資我們的業務。鞏固我們核心強勢品牌的實力，將我們的啤酒及啤酒以外的業務推向高端，並發展和利用我們的能力和合作夥伴關係來支持盈利增長。

In the US, our core power brands, Coors Life, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet have retained the unprecedented shelf space gains achieved in spring of 2024. Collectively, they commanded a 15.2% volume share of the industry for the first half of the year. Recall that 3 years ago, these brands collectively commanded 13.4% of the US industry.

在美國，我們的核心強勢品牌 Coors Life、Miller Lite 和 Coors Banquet 在 2024 年春季保持了前所未有的貨架空間成長。總體而言，今年上半年，這幾家公司的銷售量佔整個產業的 15.2%。回想一下，3年前，這些品牌總共佔了美國產業的13.4%。

And what's clear in the scanner data, and as shown on Slide 20, is that these brands have held most of their share gains from the last two years through the second quarter. Banquet in particular, has been a strong performer. After 16 consecutive quarters of share growth, it was a top 5 volume share growth brand in the quarter. And given it's only about half the buying outlets of Coors Light, we believe there is significant distribution runway ahead.

掃描器數據可以清楚地表明，正如幻燈片 20 所示，這些品牌從過去兩年到第二季度一直保持著大部分的市場份額成長。尤其是 Banquet，表現十分出色。經過連續 16 個季度的份額增長，它成為本季度銷量份額增長排名前五的品牌。鑑於它僅佔 Coors Light 購買網點的一半左右，我們相信未來還有巨大的分銷空間。

In fact, Banquet gained over 15% distribution in the first half of this year, growing across every channel and on top of over 15% growth in the same period last year. In Canada, despite a challenging industry backdrop, the Molson family of brands with its deep Canadian routes posted another quarter of volume share gains, while Coors Light, which is proudly locally produced held its number 1 life beer position in the industry.

事實上，今年上半年 Banquet 的發行量成長了 15% 以上，各個通路均實現了成長，而去年同期的增幅也超過了 15%。在加拿大，儘管產業環境充滿挑戰，但深耕加拿大市場的 Molson 品牌家族的銷售份額仍增長了四分之一，而以本地生產為榮的 Coors Light 啤酒則始終保持著行業第一的啤酒地位。

In American APAC, the industry in the UK. has remained highly competitive, and in the Central and Eastern Europe region, it continues to experience softness related to escalating global, local political and economic tensions. But our brands like Carling in the UK and Azusko and Croatia remains segment leaders in their respective markets, which we intend to continue to support with targeted commercial plans.

在美國亞太地區，英國的產業仍然保持著高度競爭力，而在中歐和東歐地區，由於全球和地方政治和經濟緊張局勢不斷升級，該行業繼續經歷疲軟。但我們的品牌，如英國的 Carling 和克羅埃西亞的 Azusko，仍然是各自市場的領導者，我們打算繼續透過有針對性的商業計劃來支持它們。

Turning to premiumization. As we have said for several quarters now, in the US there has been a shift to value-seeking behavior, but it has been focused on pack size rather than on brands. And despite the pressure on the consumer, the industry continues to premiumize, albeit currently at a slower post. So we remain committed to our premiumization plans, which are focused on both beer and beyond beer.

轉向高端化。正如我們幾個季度以來所說的那樣，在美國，人們已經轉向追求價值的行為，但這種行為關注的是包裝尺寸，而不是品牌。儘管消費者面臨壓力，但該行業仍在繼續高端化，儘管目前速度較慢。因此，我們將繼續致力於我們的高端化計劃，該計劃既關注啤酒，也關注啤酒以外的領域。

Over the last few years, we have talked a lot about our premiumization successes outside the US In EMEA and APAC, it's been fueled by a hugely successful innovation with, we believe still has significant runway, both in its initial market of the UK and through recent geographic and brand extensions.

在過去的幾年裡，我們多次談論了我們在美國以外的歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區的高端化成功，這得益於一項非常成功的創新，我們相信，無論是在英國的初始市場，還是透過最近的地理和品牌擴展，我們仍然擁有重要的發展空間。

In fact, in the latest 12 weeks, as of June 14, Madri had overtaken Peroni to become the 2 brand in the world's large segment and 4 beer overall in terms of value across total trade in the UK In Canada, premiumization has been led by the ongoing strength of Miller and our flavor portfolio.

事實上，在截至 6 月 14 日的最近 12 週內，Madri 已經超越 Peroni，成為英國啤酒總貿易價值排名第二的品牌，以及啤酒總體價值排名第四的品牌。在加拿大，高端化一直由 Miller 和我們的風味組合的持續強勁表現所引領。

But in the US our largest market, we under-index in Above Premium, which makes it a big opportunity. Our Peroni plan that began in the second quarter are starting to show positive results with the brand growing volume double digits in the last 13 weeks through July 27, supported by continued growth in chain and on-premises placements.

但在我們最大的市場美國，我們在 Above Premium 的指數較低，這是一個巨大的機會。我們在第二季度啟動的 Peroni 計劃開始取得積極成果，在截至 7 月 27 日的過去 13 週內，該品牌的銷量實現了兩位數增長，這得益於連鎖店和店內門店數量的持續增長。

And while smaller for now, we are encouraged by our innovations. Blue Moon non-alc continues its rapid growth, and we are seeing growing placements for our new higher ABV brands, Blue Moon Extra, Simply Bold and Topo Chico MAX Margarita. These higher ABV brands not only support our push to expand in C-stores but are particularly timely given current value-seeking behavior.

儘管目前規模還較小，但我們的創新精神令我們備受鼓舞。Blue Moon 無酒精飲料持續快速成長，我們的新高酒精度品牌 Blue Moon Extra、Simply Bold 和 Topo Chico MAX Margarita 的市佔率也不斷成長。這些酒精度較高的品牌不僅支持我們在便利商店的擴張，而且考慮到當前追求價值的行為，它們也特別及時。

And while these innovations are helpful to their respective brand families, we recognize the challenges of their big flagship brands and are focused on stabilizing it. For example, with Blue Moon, we have completed the pack-size conversion to 12 from 15 packs. This was a near-term volume headwind, but it's very positive for margin. In the on-premise, which is a big channel for Blue Moon, we saw dollar share trend improvement during the second quarter.

雖然這些創新對各自的品牌家族有幫助，但我們認識到其大型旗艦品牌面臨的挑戰，並專注於穩定它。例如，對於藍月，我們已經完成了包裝尺寸從15包到12包的轉換。這是短期內銷售的不利因素，但對於利潤率來說卻非常有利。在藍月的一個重要管道—本地銷售中，我們在第二季度看到美元份額趨勢有所改善。

And in the third quarter, we have been ramping up a new national advertising campaign with comedian Colin Jost and then there is non-alc. Fever-Tree is now our highest NSR per hectoliter brands aside from full strength groups.

在第三季度，我們與喜劇演員科林喬斯特 (Colin Jost) 合作開展了新的全國性廣告宣傳活動，並推出了無酒精飲料。除全強度品牌外，Fever-Tree 目前是我們每百公升 NSR 最高的品牌。

While we began to consolidate Fever-Tree into our financials in February, we only completed the distribution network transition in June. And the incoming distributors are very excited about the opportunity to significantly expand Fever-Tree's presence across both existing and new channels and buying outlets. It's early days, but the brand has already contributed meaningfully as the key driver of positive brand mix in the Americas.

雖然我們在二月就開始將 Fever-Tree 合併到我們的財務中，但我們直到六月才完成分銷網絡轉型。新加入的經銷商對於有機會大幅擴大 Fever-Tree 在現有和新通路及購買網點的影響力感到非常興奮。雖然還處於早期階段，但該品牌已經作為美洲積極品牌組合的關鍵驅動力做出了有意義的貢獻。

And while Fever-Tree is already the world's leading supplier of premium carbonated mixes with the 1 tonic and the 1 ginger beer by value in the US we believe we can accelerate its growth in the US over time by leveraging the scale and strength of our distribution network, combined with our marketing capabilities.

儘管 Fever-Tree 已經是世界領先的優質碳酸混合飲料供應商，其湯力水和薑汁啤酒的銷售額在美國名列第一，但我們相信，透過利用我們分銷網絡的規模和實力，結合我們的營銷能力，我們可以加速其在美國的增長。

Now before I pass it to Tracey, I'll sum it up to say, it's been a difficult start to the year, but we viewed beer as resilient. And amid a challenging macro backdrop, we are focusing on what we can control to position our portfolio and our business for long-term success.

現在，在我把它傳遞給 Tracey 之前，我想總結一下，今年的開始很艱難，但我們認為啤酒具有韌性。在充滿挑戰的宏觀背景下，我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情，以確保我們的投資組合和業務長期成功。

That means keeping our core power brands healthy, continuing to premiumize in EMEA and APAC and Canada and successfully executing our plans in the US Leveraging our deep capabilities across our organization to support premiumization and focused innovation, supply chain efficiencies and commercial effectiveness and utilizing our enhanced financial flexibility to prudently invest in our business and return cash to shareholders.

這意味著保持我們核心強勢品牌的健康發展，繼續在歐洲、中東和非洲地區、亞太地區和加拿大推行高端化，並在美國成功執行我們的計劃，利用我們整個組織的深厚能力來支持高端化和重點創新、供應鏈效率和商業效益，並利用我們增強的財務靈活性來審慎地投資我們的業務並向股東返還現金。

And with that, I will pass it to Tracey.

說完這些，我就會把它傳給 Tracey。

Thank you, Gavin. We are very pleased with the health of our balance sheet and our strong cash generation. and this is particularly important during a challenging macro environment as it allows us to continue to invest behind our brands to help ensure their long-term health, to continue to make capital investments that support our growth initiatives and cost savings plans and to not only pay what we view as a competitive dividend, but also execute a meaningful share repurchase program as we continue to believe our stock is a compelling investment.

謝謝你，加文。我們對資產負債表的健康狀況和強勁的現金產生能力感到非常滿意。這在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下尤其重要，因為它使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的品牌，幫助確保它們的長期健康，繼續進行資本投資，支持我們的成長計劃和成本節約計劃，不僅支付我們認為具有競爭力的股息，而且還執行有意義的股票回購計劃，因為我們仍然相信我們的股票是一項引人注目的投資。

In fact, we have raised the quarterly dividend each year since 2021, and we have actively executed our current share repurchase plan since it was announced in October 2023. We have repurchased 9.4% of our Class B shares outstanding. It's an up to 5-year $2 billion plan, and we have utilized almost 55% in under 2 years. For perspective, if we had executed it on a straight-line basis, we would have only utilized 35% of the plan so far.

事實上，自 2021 年以來，我們每年都會提高季度股息，並且自 2023 年 10 月宣布以來，我們一直在積極執行當前的股票回購計畫。我們已回購了 9.4% 的 B 類流通股。這是一項為期 5 年、耗資 20 億美元的計劃，我們在不到 2 年的時間內已經利用了近 55%。從角度來看，如果我們以直線方式執行，那麼到目前為止我們只會利用計劃的 35％。

With that, let's discuss our financial outlook. First, the impact of the global macro environment are multifaceted and difficult to predict. And while we have included in our guidance, our best estimate of some of these factors, external drivers may significantly impact our actual results either up or down.

接下來，讓我們討論一下我們的財務前景。一是全球宏觀環境的影響是多方面的、難以預測的。雖然我們已經將對其中一些因素的最佳估計納入了我們的指導中，但外部驅動因素可能會對我們的實際結果產生顯著的影響，無論是上升還是下降。

As it relates to tariffs, as we have previously said, while we are a global business, our products are generally made in the markets in which they are sold and with locally sourced ingredients. So we don't expect material direct impact from the known tariffs on our input costs.

至於關稅，正如我們之前所說，雖然我們是一家全球性企業，但我們的產品通常是在其銷售市場生產的，並且採用當地採購的原料。因此，我們預期已知關稅不會對我們的投入成本產生重大直接影響。

That said, tariffs do have indirect impact, but the recent spike in the Midwest premium pricing. While our extensive hedging program can help to mitigate some of the impact due to the barrels of our program, we are never fully hedged.

話雖如此，關稅確實有間接影響，但最近中西部地區溢價卻大幅上漲。雖然我們廣泛的對沖計劃可以幫助減輕我們計劃造成的一些影響，但我們從未完全對沖。

Further, given its opaque pricing at a time limited liquidity, hedging the Midwest premium can be difficult and expensive. And for these reasons, the Midwest premium is one of the commodities for which we currently have the least amount of hedge coverage.

此外，鑑於其定價不透明且流動性有限，對沖中西部溢價可能會很困難且成本高昂。由於這些原因，中西部溢價是我們目前對沖覆蓋最少的商品之一。

With that, let's discuss the drivers of the guidance Gavin outlined. Our top line guidance range now assumes the US industry is down 4% to 6% for the second half of the year. Our price mix assumptions are unchanged. We expect an annual net price increase of 1% to 2% in North America, in line with the average historical range. We expect mix benefits from cycling contracts growing from 2024 as well as from premiumization.

接下來，讓我們來討論 Gavin 所概述的指導方針的驅動因素。我們現在的最高指導範圍假設美國工業今年下半年將下降 4% 至 6%。我們的價格組合假設維持不變。我們預計北美年度淨價格漲幅將達到 1% 至 2%，與歷史平均值一致。我們預計從 2024 年開始自行車合約的成長以及高端化將帶來多種效益。

We expect to grow above premium net brand revenue in EMEA and APAC and Canada as well as make progress on our US above premium initiatives. Fever-Tree and the consolidation of ZOA are incremental to the top line, but we are also starting the divestiture of the smaller regional craft breweries in the third quarter of 2024. And more significantly, 2024 PA and the bad contract brewing volume as these contracts terminated at the end of last year.

我們預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區、亞太地區和加拿大的高端品牌淨收入將有所增長，並且美國的高端品牌計劃也將取得進展。Fever-Tree 和 ZOA 的合併對營收產生了增量影響，但我們也將在 2024 年第三季開始剝離規模較小的區域精釀啤酒廠。更重要的是，2024 年 PA 和不良合約正在醞釀中，因為這些合約已於去年年底終止。

We expect the related Americas contract billings headwind to be 1.9 million hectoliters in 2025. In the first half, we cycled over 1.1 million hectoliters, and we will cycle over 450,000 hectoliters in the third quarter. Also, last year, we had higher than typical first half inventory build related to the Fourth West Strike, which ended in mid-May. As a result, STW's outpaced SCR by 1.1 million hectoliters in the first half of last year.

我們預計，2025 年美洲相關合約銷售逆風將達 190 萬百升。上半年我們的循環量超過110萬千升，第三季我們將循環量超過450萬千升。此外，去年，受 5 月中旬結束的第四次西部罷工影響，我們上半年的庫存增加量高於平均水準。因此，去年上半年STW的產量比SCR高出110萬百公升。

This year, STW outpaced STRs by 800,000 hectoliters in the first half. So year-on-year, we had an approximate 300,000 hectoliter shipment timing headwind in the first half that we expect to reverse in the second half and mainly in the third quarter.

今年上半年，STW 的產量比 STR 高出 80 萬百升。與去年同期相比，我們上半年的出貨量時間面臨約 30 萬百升的逆風，我們預計下半年，尤其是第三季度，這種逆風將會得到扭轉。

Note that we did have some shipment trend catch-up to STRs in the second quarter, which had an approximate 150 basis point positive impact on US financial volume in the quarter.

請注意，我們在第二季度的出貨量確實趕上了 STR，這對本季度美國金融交易量產生了約 150 個基點的積極影響。

We had previously not expected to build higher than last year given the cycling of the Fourth West Strike. Other, we were able to ship further ahead of STRs than expected due to the softer-than-anticipated industry demand.

考慮到第四次西部大罷工的周期性，我們之前並沒有預期今年的建設量會比去年更高。此外，由於行業需求低於預期，我們能夠比預期提前發貨。

For a detailed review of these US shipment trends, please refer to Slide 21. Moving down the P&L. We expect mix benefits from lower contract brewing and increased premiumization as well as productivity improvements and cost savings to now be more than offset by higher volume deleverage given the industry volume trends as well as higher Midwest premium costs.

有關美國出貨趨勢的詳細回顧，請參閱投影片 21。降低損益。考慮到產業產量趨勢以及中西部地區更高的保費成本，我們預計，降低合約釀造成本、提高高端化水準以及提高生產力和節省成本所帶來的綜合效益，將被更高的產量去槓桿所抵消。

For the full year, this would result in Midwest premium costs exceeding the prior year by $40 million to $55 million. We now expect MG&A to be down slightly for the year as we now anticipate lower incentive compensation due to the adjusted outlook for this year.

就全年而言，這將導致中西部地區的保費成本比上一年高出 4,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元。我們現在預計今年的 MG&A 將略有下降，因為我們預計由於今年的調整前景，激勵薪酬將會降低。

Also, and to a lesser degree, the Fever-Tree onetime transition and integration fees were less than expected, totaling approximately $50 million in the first half of the year. Again, these fees will be recovered through net sales over the next three years beginning in June.

此外，在較小程度上，Fever-Tree 的一次性過渡和整合費用低於預期，上半年總計約 5,000 萬美元。再次，這些費用將從六月開始的未來三年內透過淨銷售額收回。

As for marketing, our plans are unchanged. We intend to continue to put the right commercial pressure behind our key brands and innovations, including our core power brands, Peroni, the Blue Moon family, Madri and our non-alc portfolio.

至於行銷，我們的計劃沒有改變。我們打算繼續對我們的關鍵品牌和創新施加正確的商業壓力，包括我們的核心強勢品牌 Peroni、Blue Moon 系列、Madri 和我們的無酒精產品組合。

While marketing investment was down in the second quarter, slightly up spend in the prior year period, we expect it to be up in the third quarter due to the timing of our commercial plans and lower spend in the same period last year.

雖然第二季的行銷投資有所下降，但去年同期的支出略有增加，但我們預計第三季的行銷投資將會上升，因為我們的商業計劃時機以及去年同期的支出較低。

As a result, we expect marketing investment in the peak summer months to be consistent with prior year period levels. We are also slightly adjusting our net interest expense outlook. We now expect $225 million plus or minus 5% as compared to $215 million plus or minus 5% previously.

因此，我們預期夏季高峰期的行銷投資將與去年同期水準保持一致。我們也略微調整了淨利息支出預期。我們現在預計為 2.25 億美元，上下浮動 5%，而先前預計為 2.15 億美元，上下浮動 5%。

This is driven by lower cash balances, including the impact of higher share repurchases as well as foreign currency impact. And lastly, we are reaffirming our underlying free cash flow guidance of $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%.

這是由於現金餘額減少，包括股票回購增加的影響以及外匯影響。最後，我們重申我們的基本自由現金流指引值為 13 億美元，上下浮動 10%。

In closing, with a strong global brand portfolio, healthy balance sheet and strong cash generation, we are confident in our ability to navigate these challenging times while supporting the long-term health of our business and brands. We are committed to protecting and growing our underlying free cash flow while making prudent capital allocation decisions that support our growth initiatives and allow us to return even more cash to shareholders.

最後，憑藉強大的全球品牌組合、健康的資產負債表和強勁的現金產生能力，我們有信心度過這些充滿挑戰的時期，同時支持我們的業務和品牌的長期健康發展。我們致力於保護和增加我們的基礎自由現金流，同時做出審慎的資本配置決策，以支持我們的成長計劃並使我們能夠向股東返還更多現金。

With that, we will take your questions. Operator?

我們將回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. I wanted to touch just on the updated guidance. Can you maybe just unpack the moving pieces a bit more clearly the top line is a bit pressure here, which we can see in the data. But can you maybe just unpack the profit headwinds and specifically aluminum and kind of the Midwest premium, and I guess, as we look out to the back half of the year, how does the kind of updated guidance impact the second half performance? And I guess related -- still early, but are there any implications that we should consider today as we look out to fiscal '26.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我只想談談更新後的指南。您能否更清楚地解釋一下這些移動的部分，這裡的頂線有點壓力，我們可以在數據中看到。但是，您能否簡單地解釋一下利潤逆風，特別是鋁和中西部溢價，我想，當我們展望下半年時，這種更新後的指引將如何影響下半年的表現？我想這還為時過早，但在我們展望 26 財年時，我們今天是否應該考慮其中的影響？

Thanks, Peter, and appreciate the question. Look, from an updated guidance point of view, I would put it on three things, right, that we did not anticipate the last time we spoke. One in the industry did not get better as we were expecting it to. We had expected it to navigate back to where it's been for the last few years of around down 3, and it didn't.

謝謝，彼得，我很感謝你提出這個問題。你看，從更新的指導角度來看，我會把它放在三件事上，對的，這是我們上次談話時沒有預料到的。業內的情況並沒有像我們預期的那樣好轉。我們原本預計它會回到過去幾年的水平，即下跌 3 左右，但事實並非如此。

And certainly, consumer confidence and the macro environment whilst we continue to believe very strongly that it is cyclical. We're not seeing any signs of that changing in the balance of the year, and it certainly didn't in the second quarter. So that was probably the biggest driver. Obviously, we did not expect the dramatic increase in the Midwest premium of 180%. And we've talked a lot about that, and Tracey can get into more detail on the difficulty of hedging and forecasting that.

當然，我們仍然堅信消費者信心和宏觀環境是週期性的。我們沒有看到今年餘下時間出現任何變化的跡象，第二季也確實沒有。所以這可能是最大的驅動力。顯然，我們沒有預料到中西部地區的保費會大幅上漲180%。我們已經就此進行了許多討論，Tracey 可以更詳細地講解對沖和預測的難度。

So that obviously played a pretty significant negative role in our Q2 balance of the year assumptions. And frankly, our share performance did not meet our expectations. So the first two, I would characterize as somewhat out of our control and the third one is within our control. And our share performance wasn't what we had expected. It stayed relatively same as it did in Q1, and we had expected an improvement.

因此，這顯然對我們第二季的年度平衡假設產生了相當大的負面影響。坦白說，我們的股票表現沒有達到我們的預期。因此，我認為前兩個問題有點超出我們的控制範圍，而第三個問題則在我們的控制範圍內。我們的股票表現並不像我們預期的那樣。它與第一季的情況基本相同，我們預計會有所改善。

And our estimate of our share performance was a little better than what you might see in Circana and so on because our on-premise performance is better. And so we estimate we lost about 50 bps of share in the second quarter. And we've made the same assumption for the balance of the year. Now obviously, we're working very hard to change that. But from a guidance point of view, we've assumed a little change in our share performance.

我們對股票表現的估計比 Circana 等公司的股票表現要好一些，因為我們的內部部署表現更好。因此，我們估計第二季我們的市佔率損失了約 50 個基點。我們對今年的餘額也做了同樣的假設。顯然，我們正在努力改變這種狀況。但從指導的角度來看，我們預計我們的股票表現會發生一點變化。

From a sort of second half and I think that sort of covers the second half. But from a longer-term point of view, Peter, we still believe, as we said in our remarks and I think the environment supports that is that the current industry to decline is cyclical. Consumer confidence will turn, I don't know when, but it will turn. And the Midwest premium will revert back to the mean from these extreme moves that we've seen, both of which have had a pretty negative impact on our business this year.

從某種程度上來說，我認為這涵蓋了下半場。但從長期來看，彼得，我們仍然相信，正如我們在評論中所說的那樣，我認為環境支持這一點，即當前行業的衰退是週期性的。消費者信心將會轉變，我不知道什麼時候，但它將會轉變。中西部地區的溢價將從我們所看到的這些極端走勢中恢復到平均水平，這兩種走勢都對我們今年的業務產生了相當負面的影響。

We've got a very strong balance sheet. We delivered really strong cash flow, as you heard from Tracey and our updated guidance did not change that We continue to be very pleased with how we've retained the majority of our market share on our core brands. Coors Banquet is on fire. Our non-ALC strategy is coming together with the acquisition of Fever-Tree and all of that is incremental in the second half. and we'll still have incrementality obviously, next year as well.

我們的資產負債表非常強勁。正如您從 Tracey 那裡聽到的，我們實現了非常強勁的現金流，而且我們的最新指導並沒有改變這一點，我們繼續對如何保留核心品牌的大部分市場份額感到非常滿意。庫爾斯宴會廳 (Coors Banquet) 火熱。我們的非 ALC 策略正與對 Fever-Tree 的收購相結合，所有這些都將在下半年逐步實現。而且，明年我們顯然仍將保持增量。

It provides a nice halo effect to ZOA. Peroni, our plans kicked in, in the second quarter and brands doing very, very well. And Canada is holding its own from a market share point of view and Molson Canadian is doing well. Miller Lite is doing well. Coors Originals doing well as we head into next year. And when you look at EMEA and APAC our premiumization strategy is doing very nicely, led by Madri and frankly, others. If you look towards the balance of the year, this year, contract brewing headwinds become less and less as we head towards the end of the year.

它為 ZOA 提供了良好的光環效果。Peroni，我們的計劃在第二季開始實施，品牌表現非常非常好。從市場佔有率的角度來看，加拿大保持著自己的地位，而 Molson Canadian 的表現也很好。Miller Lite 的業績表現良好。進入明年，Coors Originals 表現良好。當您觀察 EMEA 和 APAC 時，我們的高端化策略進展非常順利，這由 Madri 和其他人的領導者完成。如果你展望今年的平衡，你會發現，隨著年底臨近，合約釀造的阻力會越來越小。

And in the fourth quarter, I don't think we've got any real headwinds from a perhaps point of view to speak of. We obviously still have the FICO headwind. And then next year, that all goes away, right? So we will have no headwinds from contract brewing Tracey spoke about the shipments in the back half of the year. And whilst we did get some of that into the second quarter, which we weren't anticipating given the performance of retail sales. We do get the rest of it primarily in the third quarter. And in EMEA and APAC, we're expecting to perform better from a top line point of view as we head into the back half of the year during the environment. So, Tracey, did I forget anything?

在第四季度，從可能的角度來看，我認為我們不會遇到任何真正的阻力。顯然，我們仍然面臨 FICO 阻力。然後明年，這一切都會消失，對嗎？因此，我們不會受到合約釀造的阻礙，Tracey 談到了下半年的出貨量。雖然我們確實在第二季實現了部分成長，但根據零售銷售的表現，我們並沒有預料到這一點。我們確實主要在第三季度獲得了剩餘部分。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區，隨著我們進入下半年，我們預計從營收角度來看業績會更好。那麼，特蕾西，我忘記什麼了嗎？

No, I think you covered it all.

不，我認為你已經涵蓋了所有內容。

Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

I wanted to follow up on a couple of areas there. One is just a clarification. Tracey, the impact from Midwest premium increases that you're expecting for the year? Have you seen any of those increases in Q2? Or is that all in the back half of the year? I'd just say that in the context of the Americas inflation in the quarter was fairly poultry. So I just wanted to confirm that piece and how we think about the aluminum inflation perhaps more on a 12- to 18-month time frame.

我想跟進那裡的幾個領域。一個只是澄清。特蕾西，您預計今年中西部地區保費上漲會產生什麼影響？您在第二季度看到這些成長嗎？還是這一切都發生在下半年？我只想說，在美洲的背景下，本季的通貨膨脹相當低。所以我只是想確認這一點，以及我們如何看待鋁價上漲，或許可以更多地考慮 12 到 18 個月的時間範圍。

And then just following up on the overall category. I think there are certainly a number of reasons why we may view what's going on cyclically? A lot of categories and consumer are dealing with sluggish trends. The question I would have, though, is volumes in the beer category have been soft going back to 2022.

然後繼續跟進整體類別。我認為有很多理由可以解釋為什麼我們會週期性地看待正在發生的事情？許多類別和消費者都面臨低迷的趨勢。不過，我想問的是，自 2022 年以來，啤酒類別的銷售量一直疲軟。

Obviously, the category leader dealt with a pretty substantial headwind, but nevertheless, I wanted to just test that confidence level around this being cyclical versus perhaps changing in consumption and habits and how you reconcile or get comfortable with that concept and it's kind of a category that's been a bit softer over the past few years. So, thanks, on those appreciate it.

顯然，該類別的領導者面臨著相當大的阻力，但儘管如此，我只是想測試一下這種信心水平，看看這是周期性的還是消費和習慣的變化，以及如何調和或適應這個概念，這是一個在過去幾年裡有點疲軟的類別。所以，謝謝大家的讚賞。

Thanks, Chris. Tracey, if you wouldn't mind taking the Midwest Premium one, I'll talk a little bit more about the category and our belief in it. Look, I think from a consumer confidence point of view and the impact that had on consumers in a number of different ways, Chris, took place towards the back half of January and early February, right?

謝謝，克里斯。特蕾西，如果你不介意選擇中西部優質酒店，我會再多談談這個類別以及我們對它的信念。克里斯，我認為從消費者信心的角度來看，以及它對消費者的多種不同影響，這發生在 1 月下半月和 2 月初，對嗎？

And I mean it's clear that consumer confidence took a hit at that time and frankly, hasn't recovered. So we continue to believe that over time, that will change. I mean, it could be sooner rather than later or it could be in the same time period next year. The items that have been impacting the overall alcohol category, like I've often heard GLP-1s talked about.

我的意思是，很明顯消費者信心當時受到了打擊，坦白說，至今仍未恢復。因此我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，這種情況將會改變。我的意思是，它可能很快就會發生，也可能會在明年的同一時期發生。這些項目一直在影響整個酒精類別，就像我經常聽到的有關 GLP-1 的討論一樣。

I mean we don't have a lot of data that suggests that that's having any meaningful impact on either the alcohol category or our category at this point. The other item that gets talked about is D9. And I think the impact of D9 does vary by market. And in some markets, it's not sold. In others, it carries strong restrictions.

我的意思是，我們目前沒有很多數據表明這對酒精類別或我們的類別有任何有意義的影響。另一個被談論的項目是 D9。我認為 D9 的影響確實因市場而異。但在某些市場上，它沒有出售。在其他方面，它帶有嚴格的限制。

And so that's certainly an area that we continue to monitor the impact of that. I think consumer confidence has had a disproportionate impact, as I said, across some consumers differently to others. And again, we believe that, that is cyclical. Tracey, do you want to add anything on Midwest premium?

因此，我們肯定會繼續監測其影響的某個領域。我認為消費者信心的影響是不成比例的，正如我所說，對某些消費者的影響與其他消費者不同。我們再次相信，這是周期性的。崔西，你想在中西部優質產品上添加一些內容嗎？

Yes. So Chris, so look, I mean, no one expected the Midwest premium to increase 180% from the beginning of the year. So for us, even though we are somewhat hedged because it is such a difficult -- it's not transparent. It's expensive to hedge. It is a commodity that we -- the least amount hedged.

是的。克里斯，你看，我的意思是，沒有人預料到中西部地區的保費會從年初開始上漲 180%。因此對我們來說，儘管我們在某種程度上採取了對沖措施，因為這太困難了——但它並不透明。對沖的成本很高。這是我們進行避險最少的商品。

But as it equates to the balance of the year, I mean, we're expecting an incremental $20 million to $35 million of Midwest impact for the balance of the year. So that's around $0.60 to $0.75 a pound. Our full year impact is between $40 million and $55 million.

但由於它相當於今年的餘額，我的意思是，我們預計今年餘額對中西部地區的影響將增加 2000 萬至 3500 萬美元。所以價格大約是每磅 0.60 到 0.75 美元。我們的全年影響在 4000 萬美元至 5500 萬美元之間。

And again, that's just the Midwest premium. From a rest of a commodity point of view, our hedging program is very expensive, and we expect very little impact from tariffs. But these indirect impacts, specifically the Midwest premium is just a problem because it is so difficult to hedge, and it just doesn't follow normal market dynamics.

再說一遍，這只是中西部地區的溢價。從其他商品的角度來看，我們的對沖計劃非常昂貴，而且我們預期關稅的影響很小。但這些間接影響，特別是中西部溢價，是一個問題，因為它很難對沖，而且它不符合正常的市場動態。

And then just to tie a bow on the industry, Chris. I mean, our acceleration claim strategy is designed to address some of the areas where we believe that there is an opportunity, right? So our Beyond Beer strategy from both a non-alc beer point of view and also from a non-alc point of view is obviously a fair fairly close tie-in between Fever-Tree from a mixer point of view and alcohol.

然後，克里斯，我們來為這個行業畫上一個圓滿的句點。我的意思是，我們的加速索賠策略旨在解決我們認為存在機會的一些領域，對嗎？因此，從無酒精啤酒和非酒精的角度來看，我們的超越啤酒策略顯然與 Fever-Tree（從混合器的角度來看）和酒精之間有著相當密切的聯繫。

And so that's an area that we're leaning into and feeling really good about the initial progress that we've made on Fever-Tree. So our innovation strategy and our brand portfolio strategy is designed to address consumers' changed consumption habits and differing occasions.

這是我們正在努力的領域，我們對 Fever-Tree 所取得的初步進展感到非常滿意。因此，我們的創新策略和品牌組合策略旨在應對消費者不斷變化的消費習慣和不同的場合。

Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

I appreciate your comments on the consumer confidence potentially improving. Now I'm curious to see if you're seeing any green shoots because all we hear from your peers and retailers is that, obviously, with inflation hitting harder in the second half with tariffs, we could see things getting worse before they can get better.

我很欣賞您對消費者信心可能改善的評論。現在我很好奇，想看看您是否看到了任何復甦的跡象，因為我們從您的同行和零售商那裡聽到的都是，顯然，隨著下半年通膨因關稅而加劇，我們可能會看到情況先惡化，然後才能好轉。

So can you comment on the exit rate for consumption in North America and Europe? I know from your slides, and I appreciate the details there, you're still running STWs against STRs at a higher level. So I was hoping to see if you can help us with the cadence as we incorporate your new guide.

那麼您能否評論一下北美和歐洲的消費出口率？我從您的幻燈片中了解到，並且我很欣賞其中的細節，您仍然在更高級別上運行 STW 來對抗 STR。因此，我希望看看您是否可以在我們融入您的新指南時幫助我們掌握節奏。

Do you want to talk about shipments perhaps, and I'll just talk about how we're seeing the consumer health by market. In the US Andre, candidly, we have not seen an improvement in overall consumer confidence or behavior.

您是否想談談出貨量，我只想談談我們如何看待各個市場的消費者健康狀況。安德烈，坦白說，在美國，我們並沒有看到整體消費者信心或行為的改善。

So we have not seen that yet. And we are continuing to see value-conscious consumers engaging in some channel and pack shifting as we've seen previously, certainly buying more singles and large packs and less of those mid-packs. But that certainly has continued. I mean we obviously serve a very broad set of consumer demographics across many income levels without with our portfolio. And we think we've got a portfolio that meets everybody's needs.

所以我們還沒有看到這一點。而且，正如我們之前所見，我們繼續看到注重價值的消費者參與到一些管道和包裝轉換中，他們肯定會購買更多的單包裝和大包裝，而購買較少的中包裝。但這種情況肯定還在持續。我的意思是，我們顯然透過我們的產品組合為不同收入水平的廣泛消費者群體提供服務。我們認為我們的產品組合能夠滿足每個人的需求。

So no, we haven't seen much change. The environment is impacting all consumers in one way or another. We do see the Hispanic consumer is disproportionately impacted by the overall macro environment. If you look north of the border in Canada, I mean inflation has eased over time.

所以，我們沒有看到太大的改變。環境以某種方式影響所有消費者。我們確實看到西班牙裔消費者受到整體宏觀環境的不成比例的影響。如果你看看加拿大邊境以北，你會發現通貨膨脹隨著時間的推移已經緩解。

But consumers up there also remain cautious about spending and ongoing concerns around housing and food costs and while interest rates have stabilized, I think there is a more global concern around trade tensions and tariff-related impacts.

但那裡的消費者仍然對支出保持謹慎，並且對住房和食品成本持續感到擔憂。雖然利率已經穩定，但我認為全球對貿易緊張局勢和關稅相關影響的擔憂更加嚴重。

So whilst Canada beer industry volumes trends have been somewhat similar to the US they've performed slightly, slightly better. In the UK the consumer confidence index remains negative. We did see a little bit of an improvement in May.

因此，儘管加拿大啤酒行業的銷售趨勢與美國有些相似，但其表現略好一些。英國消費者信心指數仍為負。五月我們確實看到了一些改善。

I think this is it more broader optimistic view of the overall economy in the UK And, but overall sentiment, I think I would say, remains cautious. And then in Central and Eastern Europe, certainly, that consumer is probably being impacted more than most given the significant political and socioeconomic issues that are impacting the Central and Eastern European markets. So that's sort of a run through of our markets and how we're seeing consumer confidence. Tracey the shipments?

我認為這是對英國整體經濟更廣泛樂觀的看法，但我認為整體情緒仍然謹慎。當然，在中歐和東歐，由於影響中歐和東歐市場的重大政治和社會經濟問題，消費者受到的影響可能比大多數地區都要大。這是我們對市場以及消費者信心的回顧。特蕾西，貨物呢？

Yes. So in terms of the first half of the year, our shipments did outpace our sales to retail by 00,000 hectoliters in the first half was about 1.1 million hectoliters. So there's about a 300,000 hectoliter to reverse in the second half of the year. Most of that will be in Q3 and as always, we plan to ship to consumption. So we expect that to converge but as I say, mainly in Q3.

是的。因此，就上半年而言，我們的出貨量確實超過了零售量 0 萬百升，上半年約為 110 萬百升。因此，下半年大約有30萬百升的銷售量需要逆轉。其中大部分將在第三季完成，並且與往常一樣，我們計劃發貨給消費者。因此，我們預計這一情況將會趨於一致，但正如我所說，主要發生在第三季。

Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

高盛集團的 Bonnie Herzog

I just had a quick question on pricing and then the promotional environment. I guess, given the pressures on the category and consumers, how are you thinking about pricing for the remainder of the year? Also, what about the promotional environment? Are you seeing signs of levels increasing recently and how you expect that to play out?

我只是想問一下關於定價和促銷環境的問題。我想，考慮到該類別和消費者面臨的壓力，您如何考慮今年剩餘時間的定價？另外，促銷環境怎麼樣？您是否看到最近水平上升的跡像以及您預計將如何發展？

Thanks, Bonnie. Look, I mean it's quite common to see Horton competition with strong promotional activity during the summer. And you see that easing up in the shoulder months. And we've seen that in prior years, and we're seeing that again. And we just take a strategic approach to how we evaluate the competitive environment.

謝謝，邦妮。你看，我的意思是，在夏季看到霍頓比賽並進行強有力的宣傳活動是很常見的。您會發現，在肩部月份，這種情況會有所緩解。我們在前幾年就看到過這種情況，現在我們再次看到這種情況。我們只是採取策略方法來評估競爭環境。

From an overall pricing point of view, the historical average, as we've said before, range is in that 1% to 2% range. And we expect that to fall in that range again this year. Whilst we have seen the impact of the economy, consumer confidence having consumers searching full value, any trading seems to be coming in channel and pack shifting, not necessarily in segment trade down.

從整體定價的角度來看，正如我們之前所說，歷史平均範圍在 1% 到 2% 之間。我們預計今年這一數字將再次降至這一範圍內。雖然我們已經看到了經濟、消費者信心以及消費者尋求全面價值的影響，但任何交易似乎都來自通路和包裝的轉變，而不一定是細分市場的降價。

Filippo Falorni with Citi.

花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

I wanted to follow up on the margin question on the Midwest premium for the second half. If I take the, call it, $20 million, $35 million incremental Midwest premium cost is still a relatively small headwind to margins. So maybe, Tracey, can you talk about like the other drivers of the big margin contraction that is embedded in your guidance in terms of volume deleverage, SG&A for the back half of the year?

我想跟進下半年中西部溢價的保證金問題。如果我把它算作 2000 萬美元、3500 萬美元的增量中西部保費成本，對利潤率來說仍然是一個相對較小的阻力。那麼，特蕾西，您能否談談導致利潤率大幅下降的其他驅動因素，這些因素體現在您的預測中，包括下半年的銷售去槓桿和銷售、一般及行政費用？

And then just a follow-up on top line, Gavin, you mentioned the on-prem is performing better than what we see in track channel data. So can you give us a perspective of how July played out relative to your expectation, including the on-premise business? We see still soft trends, especially around fourth of July in track channels, but I'm curious at the total company and total industry trends, including on-premise.

然後，加文，請繼續關注頂線問題，您提到本地部署的效能比我們在追蹤頻道資料中看到的要好。那麼，您能否向我們介紹七月份的業績與您的預期相比如何，包括內部業務的情況？我們仍然看到疲軟的趨勢，特別是在 7 月 4 日左右的賽道管道，但我對整個公司和整個行業的趨勢（包括內部部署）感到好奇。

Tracey, you'll handle the margin one. I'll just quickly deal with July in the on-premise. I mean look, from a July point of view, as we say every time on these calls, right, we've only got a few weeks of the following quarter in the books.

特蕾西，你來處理邊際問題。我會在現場快速處理七月的事。我的意思是，從七月的角度來看，正如我們每次在電話會議上所說的那樣，我們只剩下下一季的幾週時間了。

So let's see what happens for the balance of the quarter from an overall industry and outperformance point of view. From an on-premise point of view, I know we've talked a lot about Blue Moon over the last couple of years.

因此，讓我們從整個產業和優異表現的角度來看看本季的剩餘情況。從內部部署的角度來看，我知道我們在過去幾年中已經討論了很多有關藍月的事情。

And we are starting to see improvement in the on-premise. Belgian White's STR trends improved 6 points in Q2 versus Q1, which is very encouraging given that brands are built and expand from the on-premise out. So we're pleased with that.

我們開始看到內部部署的改善。與第一季相比，比利時白啤酒第二季的 STR 趨勢提高了 6 個百分點，考慮到品牌是從內部建立和擴張的，這是非常令人鼓舞的。所以我們對此感到高興。

Peroni is obviously playing a role in that as we implement the plans we've talked about for a while now, which kicked off in Q2. So that's been a positive catalyst for us as well. And then Coors Banquet, just remains on fire as it gains distribution, both in the on-premise and the off-premise. So I would say that those are the three brands that are having the most positive impact for us in the on-premise.

當我們實施我們已經討論了一段時間的計劃時，Peroni 顯然發揮了作用，該計劃於第二季度啟動。這對我們來說也是一個正面的催化劑。然後，Coors Banquet 繼續保持火熱狀態，無論是在店內還是店外，其分銷範圍都在不斷擴大。所以我想說這三個品牌對我們的內部業務產生了最正面的影響。

Tracey, do you want to get into that a little bit more?

特蕾西，你想進一步談談這個嗎？

So then when you say, look, from a margin point of view, we don't specifically give gross margin guidance. But just to note, our underlying gross margin percentage has improved in each of the last two years. But a couple of things as we look at 2025. So, we've spoken about the top line. In terms of the COGS, we do have the deleverage headwind driven by the contract brewing, which we've discussed.

那麼，當您說從利潤率的角度來看，我們並沒有具體給出毛利率指引。但值得注意的是，過去兩年我們的基本毛利率百分比都有所提高。但當我們展望 2025 年時，有幾件事需要考慮。我們已經討論過了頂線問題。就銷貨成本而言，我們確實面臨著由合約醞釀推動的去槓桿阻力，這一點我們已經討論過了。

And we also have higher premiumization, which drives higher COGS across our business units. We have spoken about the Midwest premium. And although we do have productivity improvements and cost savings, these are more than offset by the deleverage and premiumization as well as the Midwest premium. .

而且我們的高端化程度也更高，這導致我們各個業務部門的銷貨成本更高。我們已經討論過中西部地區的溢價。儘管我們的生產力確實提高了、成本也節省了，但這些都被去槓桿、高端化以及中西部地區的溢價所抵消。。

Rob Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 Rob Ottenstein。

Great. So Gavin, a pretty pessimistic view on second half volumes for the industry. And I'm assuming that July was pretty bad. And this is in the face of, I think, easier comps given how bad the weather was last year. So I guess what I'd love you to help us think through, assuming that does play out the way you're guiding to, what are the impacts on the industry and how can the industry address that?

偉大的。因此，加文，對於該行業下半年的銷售量持相當悲觀的看法。我認為七月的情況相當糟糕。考慮到去年天氣的惡劣程度，我認為今年的比賽會更加容易。所以我想我希望您能幫助我們思考一下，假設事情確實按照您的指導方式發展，那麼這會對行業產生什麼影響，以及該行業該如何解決這個問題？

So are you starting to see pressure, for instance, on shelf space, not for you specifically, but for the beer industry as a whole as retailers start to look at the fall and shelf set changes and into next year and how you may be combating that?

那麼，您是否開始感受到壓力，例如貨架空間的壓力，這不單單是針對您，而是針對整個啤酒行業，因為零售商開始關注秋季和貨架設置的變化以及明年的情況，您打算如何應對這種壓力？

Any impact on, not just yours but industry brewery footprint, the potential for some sort of consolidation of volumes and maybe doing a reverse, doing more contract brewing instead of letting contracts go actually maybe bring more in to keep brewery utilization going given the high fixed costs of breweries and dependence on volumes. So just love to get your thoughts on industry action, your reaction to these unprecedented volume declines.

任何影響，不僅僅是對你的影響，而且對整個行業的啤酒廠足蹟的影響，都有可能進行某種形式的產量整合，甚至可能採取相反的做法，進行更多的合同釀造而不是放棄合同，實際上可能會帶來更多的收入來保持啤酒廠的利用率，因為啤酒廠的固定成本很高並且依賴產量。所以我很想聽聽您對行業行動的看法，以及您對這些前所未有的交易量下降的反應。

Thanks, Rob. Yes, a lot of questions in there. So let me try and take them off. So from a comps point of view now, July had easier comps, but the rest of the year did not, if you remember correctly. So yes, there was poor weather and the industry was pretty tough in July of last year.

謝謝，羅布。是的，這裡面有很多問題。所以讓我試著把它們脫掉。因此，從現在的比較角度來看，如果您沒有記錯的話，七月的比較容易，但今年剩餘時間的比較並不容易。是的，去年 7 月天氣惡劣，業界情況嚴峻。

So the comps are a little softer in July. Going forward, they're not. They're actually the industry improved quite vastly heading into the balance of the year from about August onwards. So the comps don't get easier from an industry point of view, they get tougher. And obviously, we've built that into our thinking as we put the guide out there.

因此七月份的銷售額會稍微低一些。但從未來來看，情況並非如此。事實上，從大約八月開始，該行業在今年餘下時間裡已經取得了相當大的進步。因此，從產業角度來看，競爭不會變得更容易，反而會變得更加艱難。顯然，我們在發布指南時已經將這一點納入了我們的考慮之中。

From a shelf space point of view, look, from a -- from our point of view, we obviously had a significant uptick in 2024 in both the spring and in the fall of 2023. We held on to those games. And so we finished 2024 significantly higher than we did in 2023. And again, in the spring of this year, we held on to those Shelf Games and Banquet again was a particularly strong beneficiary of that, we gained strong double digits.

從貨架空間的角度來看，從我們的角度來看，我們在 2024 年春季和 2023 年秋季顯然都出現了顯著的增長。我們堅持參加那些比賽。因此，我們在 2024 年取得的成績明顯高於 2023 年。今年春天，我們再次堅持舉辦那些 Shelf Games，而 Banquet 再次成為其中特別強勁的受益者，我們獲得了強勁的兩位數收益。

And we're not expecting to see a significant activity for the fall of 2025 based on what we're seeing and what we're hearing. And frankly, we would know if it was different by this time, where retailers have made shelf changes to accommodate other brands they've made in the flavor space and the craft space primarily, I would say, they haven't paid them in the traditional beer space.

根據我們所看到和聽到的情況，我們預計 2025 年秋季不會有重大活動。坦白說，如果這次情況有所不同，我們就會知道，零售商已經改變了貨架，以適應他們在風味空間和工藝空間生產的其他品牌，我想說，他們還沒有在傳統啤酒空間付錢給他們。

From a brewery footprint point of view, obviously, our capacity utilization varies by season. So in the summer, we're fully utilized and in the shoulder periods, not necessarily. I would tell you that removing PAPs from our system is very, very helpful. It has allowed us to remove a lot of complexity. It's allowed us to free up capacity in the summer.

從啤酒廠佔地面積的角度來看，顯然我們的產能利用率會隨季節而改變。因此，在夏季，我們會充分利用資源，但在平季，則不一定。我想告訴你，從我們的系統中刪除 PAP 非常非常有幫助。它使我們消除了很多複雜性。這使得我們在夏季能夠釋放產能。

It certainly helped our decision to onshore Peroni which we have now completed and it's completely onshore. And obviously, we see a big opportunity for Peroni and we're starting to see that benefit coming through in the second quarter.

這無疑幫助我們做出了將 Peroni 項目移至陸上的決定，目前該項目已完工，並且完全移至陸上。顯然，我們看到了 Peroni 的巨大機遇，我們開始看到這種優勢在第二季顯現。

I've often said and look forward to seeing in the future that Peroni can. There's no reason why comp as big as its other European competitors. And we certainly gained meaningful share versus our European competitors in the second quarter now that our plans have kicked in. It has -- it allowed us to tidy up our footprint by closing a couple of smaller breweries.

我常說，並期待未來能看到佩羅尼能夠做到這一點。沒有理由認為該公司的規模會與其他歐洲競爭對手一樣大。隨著我們的計劃開始實施，我們在第二季度相對於歐洲競爭對手的市場份額確實獲得了顯著增長。關閉幾家小型啤酒廠，我們得以減少碳足跡。

So we were able to tidy that up. And it certainly allowed us to bring Yuengling. And our Yuengling relationship into our business and producing in a couple of breweries and this will allow us to expand further with Yuengling when the time is right. So as it relates to the brewery footprint, we're pleased with our brewery footprint. And yes, I think that covers off on all of Rob's point, Tracey.

所以我們可以把它整理好。這確實讓我們能夠帶上 Yuengling。我們將與 Yuengling 建立合作關係，將其融入我們的業務中，並在幾家啤酒廠進行生產，這將使我們能夠在適當的時候與 Yuengling 進一步擴大合作。因此，就啤酒廠的足跡而言，我們對我們的啤酒廠足跡感到滿意。是的，我認為這涵蓋了 Rob 的所有觀點，Tracey。

Eric Serotta with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Eric Serotta。

Great. Good morning, everyone. Wanted to first ask you, Gavin, in terms of recent market share trends. Clearly, the cost premise trends at least have weakened vis-a-vis your largest competitor. I know you called out better on-prem trends, but are there any changes to your marketing or go-to-market strategies that you're implementing or contemplating in light of what seems like a resurgent competitor, at least for 2 of their main brands?

偉大的。大家早安。加文，首先想問您最近的市場份額趨勢。顯然，與最大的競爭對手相比，成本前提趨勢至少已經減弱。我知道您提到了更好的在地化趨勢，但考慮到競爭對手似乎正在復甦（至少是他們的兩個主要品牌），您正在實施或考慮的行銷或市場進入策略是否發生了任何變化？

And then for Tracey, a couple of housekeeping items. Could you help quantify how much the incentive comp reversal was? Was that all in the second quarter? And then in terms of the free cash flow, how much of -- sort of how much of the bridge between the earnings reduction and their free cash flow reiteration is the cash tax and working capital? And all else equal, with the working capital benefits reverse next year or are these sustainable? I know there's a lot there, but, thank you.

然後給 Tracey 一些家務用品。您能幫助量化激勵補償逆轉的金額嗎？這些都發生在第二季嗎？然後就自由現金流而言，獲利減少和自由現金流重申之間的橋樑有多少是現金稅和營運資本？在其他條件相同的情況下，明年營運資本利得是否會逆轉，或者這些收益是否可持續？我知道那裡有很多，但是，謝謝你。

Thanks, Eric. Yes, I love beer. Let me see if I can answer that. Look, I think from an overall share point of view, I think I'd start by saying that our total Molson Coors share trends in the US now I'm talking specifically in the US has improved each quarter since the third quarter last year, right? So Q3, we were down about 100 basis points. Q4, we were down about 70, Q1 was down about 60, Q2 is about the same, right? And if you peel back the envelope as to where we are losing that in Flavors and [indiscernible] is the biggest part of that decline.

謝謝，埃里克。是的，我喜歡啤酒。讓我看看我是否可以回答這個問題。看起來，我認為從整體份額的角度來看，我想首先要說的是，我們在美國 Molson Coors 的總份額趨勢（我現在特別指的是美國）自去年第三季度以來每個季度都有所改善，對嗎？因此，第三季度，我們下降了約 100 個基點。Q4，我們下降了約 70，Q1 下降了約 60，Q2 也差不多，對嗎？如果你仔細看看我們在哪裡失去了風味，你會發現[音頻不清晰]是造成這種下降的最大原因。

And so -- we are seeing some improvements in Topo Chico. It's not enough to offset the declines that we're seeing on Simply and Vizzy from an economy portfolio point of view, that's roughly about another 1/3 of the decline. And obviously, our 2 focus brands in the Miller High Life and Keystone Light are showing better trends and then the number of total brands that we still have in that segment.

因此，我們看到了 Topo Chico 的一些改進。從經濟投資組合的角度來看，這不足以抵消我們在 Simply 和 Vizzy 上看到的下降，這大約是下降的另外 1/3。顯然，我們的兩個重點品牌 Miller High Life 和 Keystone Light 表現出更好的趨勢，我們在該領域仍然擁有的品牌總數也有所增加。

And then core, right? We talk and I have talked a lot about our core share attention because it's factually correct, we have retained 10 points of the share that we gained in 2022, and it is meaningful. Banquet continues to be the star of the show there. it's up another 20 basis points in Q2. And it remains one of the fastest-growing major beer brands in the US.

然後是核心，對嗎？我們談論過，而且我已經談論過很多關於我們核心份額關注度的問題，因為它在事實上是正確的，我們保留了 2022 年獲得的 10 個百分點的份額，這是很有意義的。宴會繼續成為那裡的明星。第二季它又上漲了 20 個基點。它仍然是美國成長最快的主要啤酒品牌之一。

In fact, it grew in all 50 states plus Washington D.C. in the first half of the of the year. So we are very pleased with the Coors Banquet's performance. What are we doing about the rest? Well, as we head into Q3, we're focused on driving our Miller Lite 50th anniversary campaign. We're going to execute strongly behind our NFO alliance presence.

事實上，今年上半年，美國所有 50 個州以及華盛頓特區的病毒感染率均有所增加。因此，我們對 Coors Banquet 的表現非常滿意。剩下的我們該做什麼呢？好吧，隨著我們進入第三季度，我們專注於推動 Miller Lite 50 週年紀念活動。我們將大力支持我們的 NFO 聯盟。

We have a relationship with a number of NFL teams. So you'll see us in all channels. We'll see incremental media pressure, particularly in our Great Lakes geography. We're going to be executing against our Coors Light.

我們與許多 NFL 球隊都有合作關係。因此您會在各個管道看到我們。我們將會看到媒體壓力不斷增加，特別是在五大湖地區。我們將針對我們的 Coors Light 進行執行。

College programming with our ESPN Game Day partnership, and we're going to continue to put the accelerator down on Coors Banquet's momentum with the start your legacy program. From an Above Premium point of view, I've talked a lot about Peroni and Madri from a Blue Moon point of view, we are working very hard to change the trajectory of that brand.

我們將與 ESPN Game Day 合作進行大學項目，並將繼續推動 Coors Banquet 的發展勢頭，啟動您的傳統項目。從 Above Premium 的角度來看，我已經談論了很多關於 Peroni 和 Madri 的事情，從 Blue Moon 的角度來看，我們正在努力改變品牌的發展軌跡。

And we are, as I said earlier, seeing green shoots starting to show up in the on-premise, and we're seeing good performance behind our innovation, particularly Blue moon, non-alc, but from a higher ABV point of view, obviously, our strategy behind Blue Moon and Simply and Topo Chico and the convenience stores is something we're putting effort behind starting in the second quarter.

正如我之前所說，我們看到現場業務開始出現復甦跡象，我們的創新表現良好，尤其是 Blue Moon 不含酒精的啤酒，但從更高酒精度的角度來看，顯然，我們從第二季度開始就致力於 Blue Moon、Simply、Topo Chico 和便利店背後的戰略。

So big important brand for us. It's a top priority for us in above premium, and we remain very committed to turning it around. I think that was all. Anything you want to tell?

所以這個品牌對我們來說非常重要。這是我們超額保費業務的首要任務，我們仍然致力於扭轉這一局面。我想就這些了。有什麼想說的嗎？

Yeah, So Eric's comment and incentive compensation, we accrued for incentive comp throughout the year. And then based on our adjusted outlook for our guidance. We have reversed a large portion of what we had accrued in the first half of the year.

是的，埃里克的評論和激勵薪酬，是我們全年累積的激勵薪酬。然後根據我們調整後的展望來制定指導。我們已經扭轉了上半年所累積的大部分損失。

In terms of the free cash flow, look, the cash tax benefits that we've got as well as the working capital largely offset the profit shortfall. And then if you recall, when we had our Q1, we our capital spend by about $100 million. So that gives us the free cash flow of around $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%, as we have guided to.

就自由現金流而言，我們獲得的現金稅收優惠以及營運資金在很大程度上抵消了利潤缺口。如果你還記得的話，當我們第一季的時候，我們的資本支出約為 1 億美元。因此，我們的自由現金流約為 13 億美元，上下浮動 10%，正如我們所預期的。

Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Peter Galbo。

Gavin and Tracey, thanks for all the detail in the deck, very helpful. Tracey, I just wanted to go back maybe to Filippo's question, particularly around the volume deleverage piece. I think it was about a 300 basis point impact in the first half.

Gavin 和 Tracey，感謝你們提供的所有詳細信息，非常有幫助。崔西，我只是想回到菲利波的問題，特別是關於交易量去槓桿的部分。我認為上半年的影響約為 300 個基點。

And I know that you kind of gave some high-level commentary on where it would be for the year. But was just hoping to unpack that a bit more as we think about the second half and the year specifically, how we should think about the volume deleverage impact?

我知道您對今年的情況發表了一些高層次的評論。但是，當我們思考下半年和今年的具體情況時，我們是否只是希望進一步解釋這一點，我們應該如何看待數量去槓桿的影響？

Yes. So in terms of our outlook for the year, what we had said is that STW's outpaced the STRs by about 800,000 hectoliters in the first half of the year. We always plan to ship to consumption. And so there's going to be about $300,000 or so that we will reverse in the second half of the year. Maybe in Q3, because last year, for the first half, we did ship more than the retail by about 1.1 million hectoliter.

是的。因此，就我們對今年的展望而言，我們說過，今年上半年 STW 的產量比 STR 的產量高出約 80 萬百升。我們始終計劃運送至消費地。因此，今年下半年我們將收回約 30 萬美元。也許在第三季度，因為去年上半年，我們的出貨量確實比零售量多出約 110 萬百升。

So the difference between that is about 300,000 hectoliters, which we expect to reverse. And then, yes, because we plan on shipping to consumption, we expect most of that to converge by the end of the year, but mainly in Q3.

因此，兩者之間的差異約為 300,000 百升，我們預計這一差異將會逆轉。是的，因為我們計劃運送到消費市場，我們預計大部分業務將在年底前完成，但主要在第三季。

Bill Kirk with Ross Capital Partners.

羅斯資本合夥公司的比爾‧柯克 (Bill Kirk)。

So, my question, since pre-COVID since 2019, you have more market share than you did. Your earnings per share are much better than they were, but the stock price doesn't really reflect those improvements. So I guess the question is, if you aren't getting credit for market share gains, the profit growth in your current categories, so something needs to strategically change? And then when underlying COGS per hectoliter are up mid-single digit or more, why only take a 1% to 2% price increase?

所以，我的問題是，自 2019 年新冠疫情爆發之前以來，你們的市佔率比以前更大了。您的每股盈餘比以前好得多，但股價並沒有真正反映出這些改善。所以我想問題是，如果你沒有因為市場佔有率的成長和目前產品類別的利潤成長而獲得讚譽，那麼是否需要進行一些策略性改變？那麼，當每百公升的基本銷貨成本上漲個位數中段或更多時，為什麼只接受 1% 到 2% 的價格上漲？

Thanks, Bill. Look, from our -- the first part of your question, I mean, obviously, and we've said this before as well, is we believe that our business is a very attractive investment at these levels, and we continue to demonstrate our belief by buying back significantly ahead of the authorized Board program from an overall category point of view, I'm very pleased with our acquisition of the US, business of Fever-Tree and the integration is going well, and our volumes are exceeding our expectations from a business case point of view, our distributors are excited about it.

謝謝，比爾。瞧，從我們的——你問題的第一部分，我的意思是，顯然，我們之前也說過這一點，我們相信我們的業務在這些水平上是一項非常有吸引力的投資，並且我們繼續通過在授權董事會計劃之前大幅回購來證明我們的信念，從整體類別的角度來看，我對我們收購美國 Fever-Tree 業務感到非常順利，我們的銷售角度，從商業銷量

And it really does give us a nice footprint from a non-health point of view, and we believe a halo effect to our other non-ALP activities. The pricing, Yes. I mean, look, Bill, we obviously look at pricing from a -- every single market is different.

從非健康角度來看，它確實給我們留下了良好的足跡，我們相信它會對我們的其他非 ALP 活動產生光環效應。定價，是的。我的意思是，比爾，我們顯然從每個市場的角度來看定價——每個市場都是不同的。

Every state is different. Every brand is different. And we obviously take any number of factors into account, not only input costs, but also consumers' behavior and receptivity to price increases and so on. So we've got a very robust revenue management program, and we will continue to do what we think is best for our brands in every single market.

每個州的情況都不同。每個品牌都不同。我們顯然會考慮很多因素，不僅是投入成本，還有消費者的行為和對價格上漲的接受程度等等。因此，我們有一個非常強大的收入管理計劃，我們將繼續在每個市場上採取我們認為對我們的品牌最有利的做法。

Robert Moskow with Katie Cohen.

羅伯特·莫斯科和凱蒂·科恩。

Thanks for the question. in the past couple of years, the productivity gains at Molson Coors have been substantial and helped offset a lot of the negative impact from volume deleverage, but now it looks like the volume deleverage is accelerating and you've had to call down your guidance.

感謝您的提問。在過去的幾年裡，莫爾森庫爾斯的生產率大幅提高，幫助抵消了產量去槓桿帶來的許多負面影響，但現在看來產量去槓桿正在加速，您不得不下調預期。

Tracey and Gavin, at what point do you have to take another look at your asset footprint both in terms of manufacturing and distribution. And with volume declining at this pace, will you have to take another look at that and maybe make more reductions.

Tracey 和 Gavin，你們什麼時候需要重新審視你們在製造和分銷方面的資產足跡。隨著產量以這種速度下降，您是否需要重新審視這個問題，並可能做出進一步的削減？

Thanks, Robert. I mean, look, I mean, from a capacity point of view, we're pleased with our brewery footprint. We have obviously really strong utilization from a capacity point of view in the summer months. We've removed contract brewing from our system completely, which is why we're we have that headwind and have had the headwind all year, that obviously starts to tail off as we head into the back half of this year. But not much more I can say than what I said earlier, Robert.

謝謝，羅伯特。我的意思是，從產能的角度來看，我們對我們的啤酒廠足跡感到滿意。從容量角度來看，夏季我們的使用率顯然非常高。我們已經從我們的系統中完全刪除了合約釀造，這就是為什麼我們面臨逆風，並且全年都面臨逆風，但顯然，隨著我們進入今年下半年，逆風開始減弱。但我能說的並不比我之前說的更多，羅伯特。

I mean removing pass from our system has proven to be very helpful. It's allowed us to take a lot of complexity out of our system. It's allowed us to change things from a shift configuration point of view, from a line point of view, from a temporary labor point of view, it's overall from a brewery footprint point of view, been very positive for us.

我的意思是，從我們的系統中刪除通行證已被證明是非常有幫助的。它使我們能夠消除系統中的許多複雜性。它使我們能夠從輪班配置的角度、從生產線的角度、從臨時工的角度以及從啤酒廠足蹟的角度來看，總體而言，這對我們來說非常有利。

And it's allowed us to bring Peroni in, which, as I said, is growing very nicely, and we hope to have that brand as a big brand in the future. And it's allowed us to support our Yuengling partnership, where we've got a very successful launch in Illinois this year. So we're pleased with our brewery footprint, I guess, is the summary.

這使我們能夠引進 Peroni，正如我所說，它發展得非常好，我們希望這個品牌在未來成為一個大品牌。這使我們能夠支持我們與 Yuengling 的合作夥伴關係，今年我們在伊利諾伊州的推出非常成功。所以，我想，我們對我們的啤酒廠足跡感到滿意，這就是總結。

Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里和派珀·桑德勒。

I just wanted to come back to the guidance update and the EPS bridge. The Midwest premium has gotten a lot of attention, but as you've called out the math, it's maybe 1 to 2 points of the 10 or 13-point to cut the EPS growth outlook. And you've got some stepped up buybacks as well. what are the missing pieces, I guess?

我只是想回到指導更新和 EPS 橋樑。中西部溢價引起了很多關注，但正如您所說，它可能是每股收益成長前景下調 10 或 13 個百分點中的 1 到 2 個百分點。而且你們也加大了回購力道。我猜，還缺什麼呢？

And if you've said what's new is Midwest premium, the category trends and then your share expectations, is it just all of that and the operating deleverage that we've covered a bit? Or is there other inflation we should have our eye on as well? Or you mentioned the interest expense change, that's also quite modest. I mean, Help us maybe figure out if there's any other moving parts here? Or if just the top line flow through is that significant?

如果您說過新情況是中西部優質產品、類別趨勢以及您的份額預期，那麼這是否只是所有這些以及我們已經涵蓋的經營去槓桿率？或者有其他通膨問題值得我們關注嗎？或者您提到利息支出的變化，這也是相當溫和的。我的意思是，能幫我們弄清楚這裡是否還有其他活動部件嗎？或者如果只是頂線流量就那麼重要嗎？

Michael, yes. So look, I mean, -- there is some marketing timing. We do expect to spend similar levels of marketing in our peak summer selling season as last year. So that's one thing. But the other thing is -- remember, our EPS is not in constant currency.

邁克爾，是的。所以，我的意思是——有一些行銷時機。我們確實希望在夏季銷售旺季投入與去年類似的行銷資金。這是一回事。但另一件事是——請記住，我們的每股盈餘不是以固定貨幣計算的。

So we do have foreign exchange impacts to it. And as the dollar weakens, there will certainly be a tailwind. And then the other thing that goes into it is tax. Now we have kept our effective tax rate guidance at the same level as what we had previously.

因此，我們確實受到外匯影響。隨著美元走弱，一定會出現順風。另一個涉及的因素是稅收。現在，我們將有效稅率指導維持在與之前相同的水平。

But those could be two items that do impact our EPS. But yes, just probably to call out that although marketing was down in Q2. We do expect it to be up in Q3 because of some of the timing of our commercial plans and also cycling lower spending in prior year.

但這兩個因素可能會影響我們的每股盈餘。但是的，可能只是想說，儘管第二季的行銷有所下滑。我們確實預計第三季的支出會上升，因為我們的一些商業計劃的時間表以及前一年週期性的較低支出。

Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

So I know you talked about the softer US share performance in the release. And I was just curious to kind of talk a little bit more about that. given the competitive premium light space these days. And like are there any specific regions in the US. where you're seeing underperformance? And I know you said the guidance for the second half seems the share trends kind of are consistent.

所以我知道您在新聞稿中談到了美國股市表現疲軟。我只是好奇地想進一步談論這個問題。考慮到目前高端照明領域的競爭激烈。在美國，您是否發現某些特定地區的表現不佳？我知道您說過下半年的指引似乎與股票趨勢一致。

You just commented on our marketing. But I was curious about plans to defend share in the second half and beyond? Like is there a point where you'd consider addressing pricing? Is it a matter of more marketing? Or is the view more like don't over spend into a soft market backdrop?

您剛剛對我們的行銷發表了評論。但我很好奇下半年及以後捍衛市場佔有率的計畫是什麼？例如，您是否會考慮解決定價問題？這是更多的行銷問題嗎？或者更確切地說，是不要在疲軟的市場背景下過度消費？

Yes. Thanks, Lauren. Look, I mean, we're obviously very thoughtful about how we spend our marketing, and we turn it over quite carefully. But certainly, we're seeing really pleasing momentum in a number of our brands without wishing to repeat myself too much, right? I mean we're seeing strong momentum behind Banquet Peroni.

是的。謝謝，勞倫。你看，我的意思是，我們顯然非常認真地考慮如何花費我們的行銷費用，而且我們非常謹慎地處理它。但可以肯定的是，我們看到許多品牌都呈現出令人欣喜的發展勢頭，我不想重複太多，對吧？我的意思是，我們看到 Banquet Peroni 背後有著強勁的發展勢頭。

And we've got our non-al portfolio coming in, Fever-Tree, we're spending more money behind it. Madri in our other markets has performed very well. So notwithstanding the current overall macro environment, which we, as I said, believe is cyclical.

我們的非鋁投資組合 Fever-Tree 也即將面世，我們為其投入了更多資金。Madri 在我們其他市場的表現非常出色。因此，儘管當前整體宏觀環境如此，但正如我所說，我們認為它是周期性的。

We're going to continue to invest behind our brands so that when the tide turns, they're in the best position that they can be. I talked a little earlier on about some of the areas that we're focusing in on our core brands, not only Banquet, but also Miller Lite and Coors Light, and we're going to continue to support those. But you can be assured that we turn over every marketing and sales dollar carefully for effectiveness before we spend it.

我們將繼續投資我們的品牌，以便當情況發生變化時，它們能夠處於最佳位置。我之前談到了我們關注的核心品牌的一些領域，不僅包括 Banquet，還有 Miller Lite 和 Coors Light，我們將繼續支持這些品牌。但您可以放心，我們會仔細檢視每一筆行銷和銷售費用，以確保其有效性，然後再花掉。

Carlos Laboy with HSBC.

匯豐銀行的卡洛斯‧拉博伊 (Carlos Laboy)。

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Can you come back, please, to the cash offsets that you mentioned earlier. You mentioned tax benefit. That was another one. If you could expand on both of those, please, it would be helpful.

是的。大家早安。請您再談談之前提到的現金抵銷問題。您提到了稅收優惠。那是另一個。如果您可以詳細說明這兩者，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. So we -- for our free cash flow, we've received some cash tax benefits this year as well as some working capital improvements. So that has enabled us to keep our free cash flow guidance at the $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%. Those are the two items that we mentioned in particular.

是的。因此，就我們的自由現金流而言，我們今年獲得了一些現金稅收優惠以及一些營運資金改善。因此，我們能夠將自由現金流預期保持在 13 億美元，上下浮動 10%。這是我們特別提到的兩項。

The biggest driver there, obviously, is the benefit coming out of capital deductibility one big beautiful but point of view.

顯然，最大的驅動力是資本扣除帶來的好處，這是一個美麗但重要的觀點。

Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein.

納丁·薩瓦特 (Nadine Sarwat) 和伯恩斯坦。

I know we've talked a lot about the US, So, I'd actually like to turn attention to EMEA and APAC. Your financial volumes were down close to 8%. And I know you called out weakness in a number of the markets. But could you provide perhaps some additional color by region? So how is the UK business doing versus your other markets? And then how do you view this segment performing over the remainder of this year specifically?

我知道我們已經談論了很多關於美國的事情，因此，我實際上想把注意力轉向歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區。您的財務量下降了近8％。我知道您指出了一些市場存在疲軟現象。但是您能否按地區提供一些額外的顏色？那麼與你們的其他市場相比，英國的業務表現如何？那麼，您如何看待該細分市場在今年剩餘時間內的具體表現？

Thanks, Nadine. Look, I mean, the market in the UK continues to decline, declines in both channels. We have seen a little bit of a category improvement Q-to-date, starting to see some trend improvement in our share trajectory. That has been aided by the benefit of the Easter shift, right, which moved out of Q1 and into Q2. And I know you live in the UK, so that you will know that the weather has been particularly good in the UK.

謝謝，納丁。你看，我的意思是，英國市場持續下滑，兩個管道都在下滑。到目前為止，我們已經看到了類別方面的一些改善，並開始看到我們的股票走勢出現一些趨勢改善。這得歸功於復活節的轉變，右圖，從第一季轉移到第二季。我知道你住在英國，所以你會知道英國的天氣特別好。

We are expecting those figures to show a somewhat greater decline once we've got June data in because I think we're lapping a big football tournament from last year. So there is that going on. Competition in the marketplace, it remains intense, frankly. And despite the increase that we've seen in promotional frequency in the off-premise with our largest brand. It does remain challenged given the actions of some of our competitors, which we have chosen not to follow. I mean we're seeing some of our competitors in that space price consistently 20% lower than calling on shelf.

我們預計，一旦我們獲得六月的數據，這些數字將會顯示出更大的下降，因為我認為我們正在超越去年的一場大型足球錦標賽。事情就是這樣的。坦白說，市場競爭依然激烈。儘管我們看到我們最大品牌的場外促銷頻率增加。鑑於我們的一些競爭對手的行動，這確實仍然面臨挑戰，但我們選擇不效仿。我的意思是，我們發現該領域的一些競爭對手的價格始終比貨架上的商品低 20%。

So that's certainly challenged us from a main brand point of view. Our Madri volume growth, it continues. It's up again mid-single digits in Q2, and we're going to continue to put the right level of commercial support behind those brands.

所以從主品牌的角度來看，這無疑地對我們提出了挑戰。我們的 Madri 銷售仍在持續成長。第二季度，該數字再次上漲至中等個位數，我們將繼續為這些品牌提供適當的商業支援。

If you look across the water into our Central Eastern European business, look, there's no doubt that the overall beer industry remains sluggish in this market. It's driven by another decline in consumer confidence that began at the end of 2024 after we've seen some improvement.

如果你放眼我們的中東歐業務，你會發現，毫無疑問，這個市場的整體啤酒產業依然低迷。這是由於消費者信心在我們看到一些改善之後於 2024 年底再次下降所致。

And those factors that are driving that are well understood and well known from a global political point of view and local, social and economic tensions that exist there. We have seen a higher promotional activity across most of the markets. We have had some challenging customer negotiations as well, which are now resolved.

從全球政治角度以及當地存在的社會和經濟緊張局勢來看，這些驅動因素是眾所周知的。我們看到大多數市場的促銷活動都有增加。我們也曾與一些客戶進行過有挑戰性的談判，但現在已經解決。

And so all of those factors impacted our volume performance in the first half of the year. We continue to remain optimistic about the growth potential for our Central Eastern European businesses. We're putting investments behind our national power brands and we're supporting the recent launches that we have in the above premium space with -- we launched Madri in Bulgaria last year, and we launched it in Romania this year. And both of those doing very nicely.

所有這些因素都影響了我們上半年的銷售表現。我們持續對中東歐業務的成長潛力保持樂觀。我們正在對我們的國家強勢品牌進行投資，並支持我們在上述高端領域推出的最新產品——我們去年在保加利亞推出了 Madri，今年在羅馬尼亞推出了它。兩人都表現得非常好。

We launched Coors in Hungary, which is doing well. And our innovation in the beyond beer space for example, (inaudible) cider in Serbia and Bulgaria, and Montenegro and Croatia is also doing is also doing well, although early days. A real success story for us is our premiumization in our EMEA and APAC business, and you can actually see that in the mix benefits, which we got in APAC in the second quarter, I think that's generated almost 490 basis points of positive mix for us. So Nadine, that's kind of a quick high-level run through our European business.

我們在匈牙利推出了 Coors，目前市場表現良好。我們在啤酒以外領域的創新，例如（聽不清楚）塞爾維亞、保加利亞、蒙特內哥羅和克羅埃西亞的蘋果酒也做得很好，儘管還處於早期階段。對我們來說，一個真正的成功案例是我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區業務的高端化，您實際上可以從我們在第二季度在亞太地區獲得的組合效益中看到這一點，我認為這為我們創造了近 490 個基點的正組合效益。那麼，納丁，這是我們歐洲業務的快速高層介紹。

Gerald Pascarelli with Needham.

傑拉爾德·帕斯卡雷利 (Gerald Pascarelli) 和尼德姆 (Needham)。

Great I had a question on capital allocation. Just -- given these volume declines, if industry volumes and then your own volumes remain lower for longer, as you think about this business long term, do you believe larger-scale M&A or more aggressive bolt-on M&A may be necessary to just expedite your portfolio towards more attractive subsectors and beverages, whether it be more nonalcoholic exposure or exposure to above premium brands, et cetera. Just looking for any color or thoughts around how M&A or evolving M&A just fits into your capital allocation strategy?

太好了，我對資本配置有疑問。只是——考慮到這些銷量下降，如果行業銷量和您自己的銷量在較長時間內保持較低水平，當您考慮這個業務的長期發展時，您是否認為可能需要進行更大規模的併購或更積極的附加併購，以加快您的投資組合向更具吸引力的子行業和飲料的方向發展，無論是更多的非酒精產品還是高端品牌，等等。只是想了解一下關於併購或不斷發展的併購如何適合您的資本配置策略的任何顏色或想法？

Thanks, Gerald. Look, from an M&A point of view, I think we've been very clear about how the string of pearls approach has worked for us. And the early days when we still had somewhat of a challenged balance sheet with a higher leverage ratio. Those pearls were relatively small. As we've put ourselves in a really strong position from a balance sheet point of view, I'm very proud of the work that the team has done to get the balance sheet where it is after the last four or five years.

謝謝，傑拉爾德。從併購的角度來看，我認為我們已經非常清楚珍珠鍊方法對我們有何作用。早期我們的資產負債表仍面臨一定挑戰，槓桿比率較高。那些珍珠相對較小。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們已經處於非常有利的地位，我對團隊在過去四五年裡為使資產負債表達到目前的水平所做的工作感到非常自豪。

That has allowed us to look at slightly bigger pills. And certainly, the one we did this year with Fever-Tree is very strongly supportive of our overall strategy. And there's a much bigger pearl than we perhaps would have considered five years ago when you add everything up from a from a working capital point of view and a distribution point of view and our investment in Fever-Tree.

這使我們能夠研究稍大的藥丸。當然，我們今年與 Fever-Tree 合作的舉措非常有力地支持了我們的整體策略。當我們從營運資本的角度、分銷的角度以及我們對 Fever-Tree 的投資的角度把所有東西加起來時，你會發現這顆珍珠比我們五年前想像的要大得多。

That number was well north of $100 million. So we remain committed to our string of pearls approach. Obviously, beyond that, I'm not going to comment on any M&A, but very pleased with the progress that we've made with Fever-Tree so far.

這個數字遠遠超過 1 億美元。因此，我們將繼續致力於我們的「珍珠鍊」策略。顯然，除此之外，我不會對任何併購發表評論，但對我們迄今為止在 Fever-Tree 方面取得的進展感到非常高興。

Kevin Grundy with BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的凱文‧格蘭迪 (Kevin Grundy)。

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping to get an update on the CEO search process, given Gavin's plans to retire. By year-end, of course, you will be missed. But any update there just in terms of where that process stands? Any comments on internal versus external candidates, attributes that the Board is looking for? And perhaps maybe how that's evolved a bit given the demands of the current environment. So, any comments that you can offer to folks, I think, would be appreciated. Thank you very much.

偉大的。謝謝。大家早安。考慮到加文 (Gavin) 的退休計劃，我希望了解執行長搜尋過程的最新進展。當然，到了年底，人們就會想念你。但是就該流程而言，有任何更新嗎？對於董事會尋求的內部和外部候選人以及特質，您有何評論？考慮到當前環境的需求，這也許會有所發展。因此，我認為，如果您能向大家提供任何意見，我們將不勝感激。非常感謝。

Thanks, Kevin. I appreciate the kind words. Look, I mean, the process is well underway. The Board has made significant progress. Obviously, it's navigating the process very thoughtfully given my planned retirement by the end of the year.

謝謝，凱文。我很感激這些善意的話語。你看，我的意思是，這個過程正在順利進行中。董事會已取得重大進展。顯然，考慮到我計劃在今年年底退休，所以整個過程非常謹慎。

In terms of capabilities, the Board is paying a lot of attention to both relevant business leadership experience along with a cultural fit. Obviously, I'm very proud of the culture we've built here at Molson Coors. It's really it's very special. As we've said previously, it's very common for companies of our size to look at both internal and external candidates for a CEO position.

在能力方面，董事會非常重視相關的業務領導經驗以及文化契合度。顯然，我對我們在 Molson Coors 建立的文化感到非常自豪。這確實非常特別。正如我們之前所說，對於我們這種規模的公司來說，同時考慮內部和外部候選人來擔任執行長職位是很常見的。

And that's what our Board is doing. Doing at the moment. They remain supportive of our current long-term strategy. Obviously, I would expect any new CEO to put their own stamp on the company. So that's the update, Kevin.

這就是我們的董事會正在做的事情。現在正在做。他們仍然支持我們當前的長期策略。顯然，我希望任何新任執行長都能在公司留下自己的印記。這就是最新消息，凱文。

Thank you. Those are all the questions we have today. And so, I'll hand the call back over to Gavin for closing remarks.

謝謝。這些就是我們今天要問的所有問題。因此，我將把電話交還給加文 (Gavin) 做最後發言。

Thank you, operator. Appreciate that. Appreciate all the questions. I'd like to close by thanking our Molson Coors team and our partners for their continued support behind our business and our brands. I continue to be very proud of the dedication and commitment of our over 16,000 employees are incredible partners and our best-in-class distributor network. I'm confident that together we can navigate this challenging environment and certainly emerge stronger with this team behind us. So thanks for your time today.

謝謝您，接線生。非常感謝。感謝大家提出的問題。最後，我要感謝 Molson Coors 團隊和合作夥伴對我們業務和品牌的持續支持。我繼續為我們超過 16,000 名員工、出色的合作夥伴和一流的經銷商網絡的奉獻精神和承諾感到非常自豪。我相信，在我們的團隊的支持下，我們一定能夠共同應對這個充滿挑戰的環境，並且變得更強大。感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我們的通話到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。