Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. With that, I'll hand it over to Traci Mangini, Vice President, Investor Relations.

早安，歡迎參加 Molson Coors 飲料公司 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議。說完這些，我將把麥克風交給投資者關係副總裁 Traci Mangini。

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Following prepared remarks today, we look forward to taking your questions. (Operator Instructions) Also I encourage you to review our earnings release and earnings slides, which are posted on the IR section of our website and provide detailed financial and operational metrics.

謝謝接線員，大家好。根據今天的準備好的發言，我們期待回答您的問題。（操作員指示）此外，我還鼓勵您查看我們的收益報告和收益幻燈片，這些報告和幻燈片發佈在我們網站的 IR 部分，並提供了詳細的財務和營運指標。

Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to our risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law. The definitions of reconciliations for any non-US GAAP measures are included in our earnings release.

今天的討論包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果或趨勢可能與我們的預測有重大差異。欲了解更多信息，請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論的風險因素。除適用法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。任何非美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的調節定義均包含在我們的收益報告中。

Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results we discussed versus the comparable prior year period and are in US dollars. With the exception of earnings per share, all financial metrics are in constant currency when referencing percentage changes from the prior year period.

除非另有說明，我們討論的所有財務結果與去年同期相比均以美元計算。除每股盈餘外，所有財務指標在參考去年同期的百分比變動時均以固定貨幣計算。

Also share data references are sourced from Circana in the US and from Beer Canada in Canada unless otherwise indicated. Further, in our remarks today, we will reference underlying pre-tax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes and underlying earnings per share, which equates to underlying diluted earnings per share as defined in our earnings release.

除非另有說明，共享資料參考均來自美國的 Circana 和加拿大的 Beer Canada。此外，在我們今天的評論中，我們將參考基礎稅前收入，相當於所得稅前的基礎收入和基礎每股收益，相當於我們的收益報告中定義的基礎稀釋每股收益。

Now with that, over to you, Gavin.

現在，就交給你了，加文。

Thank you, Tracey. Hello, everybody, and thank you for joining the call. After so many of our peers in staples, it certainly was a challenging first quarter. The global macroeconomic environment is volatile due to uncertainty around the effects of geopolitical events and global trade policy, including the impacts on economic growth, consumer confidence and expectations around inflation and currencies.

謝謝你，特蕾西。大家好，感謝大家參加電話會議。與我們在史泰博領域的眾多同業相比，這無疑是一個充滿挑戰的第一季。由於地緣政治事件和全球貿易政策的影響存在不確定性，導致全球宏觀經濟環境不穩定，包括對經濟成長、消費者信心以及通膨和貨幣預期的影響。

These shifts have pressured consumption trends as the consumer faces a high level of uncertainty, and the beer industry has not been immune to these macro changes. Fortunately, while we are a global business, our beers and beverages are generally made in the markets in which they are sold, meaning the vast majority of our brands sold in the US are made in the US with US ingredients. The same is true of our Canadian business.

由於消費者面臨高度不確定性，這些轉變給消費趨勢帶來了壓力，而啤酒產業也未能免受這些宏觀變化的影響。幸運的是，雖然我們是一家全球性企業，但我們的啤酒和飲料通常是在其銷售市場生產的，這意味著我們在美國銷售的絕大多數品牌都是在美國使用美國原料生產的。我們的加拿大業務也是如此。

So from that perspective, we believe that we are one of the better positioned businesses in our category. Adding to the dynamics in the quarter, we had several expected shipment headwinds as well as one-time transition and integration fees related to Fever-Tree. And given that this all occurred in our typically lowest revenue quarter of the year, there was a more pronounced impact on our quarterly results.

因此從這個角度來看，我們相信我們是同類企業中地位較好的企業之一。除本季的動態外，我們還遇到了一些預期的出貨量阻力以及與 Fever-Tree 相關的一次性過渡和整合費用。鑑於這一切都發生在我們一年中收入最低的季度，對我們的季度業績的影響更為明顯。

Now we recognize that these macro-driven uncertainties persist and it's unclear for how long. As we discuss the details around the performance in the quarter, I want to emphasize that there have been no changes in our belief in the continued strengthening of our core brands and in our long-term growth algorithm.

現在我們認識到這些宏觀驅動的不確定性仍然存在，而且尚不清楚會持續多久。當我們討論本季業績細節時，我想強調的是，我們對持續加強核心品牌和長期成長演算法的信念並沒有改變。

The continued premiumization of our portfolio, ability to maintain unprecedented US shelf space gains and our recent investment in Fever-Tree give us increased confidence in our long-term growth journey. But we do recognize the macro environment is impacting our performance in the near term. So we are focusing on controlling what we can control. We are taking actions to best ensure that we can navigate and mitigate the short-term challenges while continuing to support the medium- and long-term health and growth objectives of the company.

我們產品組合的持續高端化、保持美國貨架空間空前增長的能力以及我們最近對 Fever-Tree 的投資，讓我們對長期增長之旅更加充滿信心。但我們確實認識到宏觀環境正在影響我們短期內的表現。因此，我們專注於控制我們能夠控制的事情。我們正在採取行動，以最大程度地確保我們能夠應對和減輕短期挑戰，同時繼續支持公司的中長期健康和成長目標。

This means executing our strategy to further strengthen our core power brands and premiumize our business. And we have strong growth commercial plans globally as we head into the peak season, which is still ahead of us. It means taking a deeper look at near-term non-business-critical discretionary cost-saving opportunities to help protect profitability.

這意味著執行我們的策略，進一步加強我們的核心強勢品牌，並使我們的業務更加高端。隨著我們即將進入旺季，我們在全球範圍內制定了強勁的商業成長計劃。這意味著要更深入研究近期非業務關鍵的可自由支配的成本節約機會，以幫助保護獲利能力。

And it means adjusting our 2025 capital expenditure plans to best ensure we are utilizing our strong annual free cash flow in the most prudent ways given the current environment. This entails refining capital investments to focus on our highest priority growth and productivity initiatives while continuing to return cash to shareholders.

這意味著我們要調整 2025 年的資本支出計劃，以確保我們在當前環境下以最謹慎的方式利用強勁的年度自由現金流。這需要優化資本投資，專注於我們最優先的成長和生產力計劃，同時繼續向股東返還現金。

Now while these mitigation efforts are helpful, the magnitude of the impacts of the macroeconomic environment in the industry has been much greater so far this year than we had expected. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell by nearly 20 percentage points since the beginning of the year and GDP turned negative for the first quarter.

雖然這些緩解措施是有幫助的，但今年迄今宏觀經濟環境對該產業的影響程度遠遠超出我們的預期。例如，密西根大學消費者信心指數年初以來下降近20個百分點，第一季GDP變成負值。

Amid these pressures on the macro and consumer environment, we are updating our guidance for the full year, and we now expect a low single-digit net sales revenue decline on a constant currency basis as compared to low single-digit growth previously, a low single-digit underlying pretax income decline on a constant currency basis as compared to mid-single-digit growth previously and a low single-digit underlying earnings per share growth as compared to high single-digit growth previously. However, we are reaffirming our underlying free cash flow guidance of $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%.

面對宏觀和消費環境的壓力，我們正在更新全年業績指引，目前我們預計，按固定匯率計算，淨銷售收入將出現低個位數下降，而此前預計增長幅度為低個位數；按固定匯率計算，基本稅前收入將出現低個位數下降，而此前預計增長幅度為中等個位數；基本價格每股收益將出現低個位數增長，而此前預計增長幅度為高個位數；基本增長幅度將出現低個位數增長，而此前預計增長幅度為高個位數；基本增長然而，我們重申我們的基本自由現金流指引值為 13 億美元，上下浮動 10%。

Now Tracey will touch more on the guidance drivers shortly. But now let's take a moment to discuss the quarter. Consolidated net sales revenue was down 10.4%, underlying pretax income was down 49.5% and underlying earnings per share was down 47.4%. The top line performance was meaningfully impacted by volume performance, particularly in the US. US financial volume was down 15.7%. And this lagged US brand volume, which was down 8.8%.

現在 Tracey 將簡要介紹指導驅動程式。但現在讓我們花點時間來討論一下本季。合併淨銷售收入下降 10.4%，稅前基本收入下降 49.5%，每股基本收益下降 47.4%。營業收入表現受到銷售表現的顯著影響，尤其是在美國。美國金融交易量下降了15.7%。而美國品牌銷量則下降了 8.8%。

As I mentioned, the unexpected macroeconomic pressures on consumer consumption behavior were a big driver of our results. However, there were several expected headwinds in the quarter that contributed to the volume performance. We were cycling significantly higher demand in the first quarter of last year when STRs were up 5.8%. There was also one less trading day in the first quarter this year, which adversely impacted the US brand volume trend by 140 basis points.

正如我所提到的，消費者消費行為所面臨的意外宏觀經濟壓力是我們績效的一大驅動力。然而，本季預計會出現一些不利因素，影響銷售表現。去年第一季度，STR 上漲了 5.8%，需求大幅增加。今年第一季也減少了一個交易日，這對美國品牌銷售趨勢產生了140個基點的不利影響。

There were also shipment timing dynamics. In the first quarter of 2024, we deliberately built inventory as we prepared for the possible strike at our Fort Worth brewery which, as you know, became a reality. And as a result, STWs outpaced STRs by over 750,000 hectoliters.

還有裝運時間動態。2024 年第一季度，我們特意增加了庫存，為沃斯堡啤酒廠可能發生的罷工做準備，正如你們所知，罷工已經發生了。結果，STW 的產量比 STR 高出 750,000 百升以上。

In the first quarter of this year, STW's outpaced STRs by only 200,000 hectoliters. This had a nearly 500 basis point negative impact on US financial volume in the quarter. Further, as we expected, we cycled a combined approximate 590,000 hectoliters of contract brewing volume for Peps in the US and Labatt in Canada in the first quarter of 2024. This contract brewing volume which related to agreements that terminated at the end of 2024 at a negative 4 percentage point impact on Americas financial volume for the quarter.

今年第一季度，STW 的銷售量僅比 STR 多 20 萬百升。這對本季美國金融交易量產生了近500個基點的負面影響。此外，正如我們預期的那樣，我們在 2024 年第一季為美國的 Peps 和加拿大的 Labatt 共循環了約 590,000 百升的合約釀造量。該合約釀造量與 2024 年底終止的協議有關，對本季美洲財務量產生負面 4 個百分點的影響。

Again, while the exit of this contract brewing is a temporary volume headwind, we expect to have a positive impact in 2025 and beyond on mix, margin and brewery network effectiveness. In fact, net sales revenue per hectoliter in the Americas was up 4.8%.

再次強調，雖然合約釀造的退出會暫時對產量產生不利影響，但我們預計這將在 2025 年及以後對產品組合、利潤率和啤酒廠網路效率產生積極影響。事實上，美洲每百升淨銷售收入成長了4.8%。

In addition to favorable net pricing growth, it was driven by mix benefits, which largely resulted from the exit of this contract brewing volume. It also benefited from positive brand mix led by the addition of Fever-Tree in the US, which is already showing early positive signs in our investment thesis and its long-term impact on our business.

除了有利的淨定價成長之外，其還受到混合效益的推動，這在很大程度上是由於該合約釀造量的退出。它也受益於以美國 Fever-Tree 的加入為首的積極品牌組合，這已經在我們的投資理論及其對我們業務的長期影響中顯示出早期積極跡象。

In EMEA and APAC, our financial volume was down 9.7% due to soft industry demand across our regions and the heightened competitive landscape. However, this was partly offset by net sales revenue per hectoliter growth of 5.4%, driven by favorable sales mix, including high affected brand volume and continued premiumization and increased pricing.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區，由於各地區產業需求疲軟以及競爭加劇，我們的財務量下降了 9.7%。然而，這部分被每百升淨銷售收入 5.4% 的成長所抵消，這得益於有利的銷售組合，包括受影響品牌銷量高、持續高端化和價格上漲。

From a consolidated earnings perspective, we continue to closely manage costs while maintaining strong commercial support for our brands globally. However, lower volumes, volume deleverage, higher input costs and onetime Fever-Tree transition and integration fees of approximately $30 million negatively impacted bottom line results.

從綜合收益的角度來看，我們繼續密切管理成本，同時在全球範圍內為我們品牌提供強有力的商業支援。然而，較低的銷售量、銷售去槓桿、較高的投入成本以及一次性約 3000 萬美元的 Fever-Tree 過渡和整合費用對底線業績產生了負面影響。

Our underlying free cash flow was negative $265 million. The first quarter is typically a cash use quarter and our smallest quarter of the year in terms of revenue and profit. So we invested $88 million for an 8.5% equity stake in Fever-Tree Drinks plc and returned nearly $160 million to shareholders through a higher quarterly dividend as well as ongoing share repurchases.

我們的基礎自由現金流為負 2.65 億美元。第一季通常是現金使用最多的季度，也是我們一年中收入和利潤最少的季度。因此，我們投資 8,800 萬美元收購了 Fever-Tree Drinks plc 8.5% 的股權，並透過更高的季度股息以及持續的股票回購向股東返還了近 1.6 億美元。

Despite a volatile quarter, we continue to view our valuation is compelling given our belief in our business and in our long-term growth algorithm. In fact, for the first six quarters since the share repurchase program was announced, we had already executed over 40% of this up to five-year program, which is a straight line the number would have us at only 30%.

儘管本季波動較大，但鑑於我們對自身業務和長期成長演算法的信心，我們仍然認為我們的估值具有吸引力。事實上，自股票回購計畫宣布後的前六個季度，我們已經執行了這項為期五年的計畫的 40% 以上，這是一個直線數字，原本我們只能執行 30%。

And this belief comes from our commitment to our strategy and our ability to execute it. Through continued brand support and investments in our capabilities and partnerships, we are making progress in advancing our strategic priorities.

這種信念源自於我們對戰略的承諾以及執行戰略的能力。透過持續的品牌支援以及對我們的能力和合作夥伴關係的投資，我們在推進策略重點方面取得了進展。

I'll start with our core power brands. In the US, Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet have combined 15.4 volume share as compared to 13.5 in the first quarter of 2023. Said differently, these brands combined were up 1.9 share points since the first quarter of 2023, continuing to demonstrate that the step change improvement in volume share performance is sticky.

我將從我們的核心強勢品牌開始。在美國，Coors Light、Miller Lite 和 Coors Banquet 的銷售份額總計為 15.4，而 2023 年第一季為 13.5。換句話說，自 2023 年第一季以來，這些品牌的市佔率總計上漲了 1.9 個百分點，繼續證明銷售份額表現的逐步提升具有持久性。

Please refer to slide 18 in our earnings deck, which highlights our strong and sustained share performance. And very importantly, we have retained a collective unprecedented US shelf space games for our core portfolio which we achieved last spring. All of this reflects the ongoing strength and resilience of these brands.

請參閱我們的收益報告中的第 18 張投影片，其中重點介紹了我們強勁且持續的股票表現。非常重要的是，我們的核心產品組合中保留了去年春季前所未有的美國上架遊戲。所有這些都反映了這些品牌持續的實力和韌性。

Coors Banquet momentum continued to accelerate with brand volume up double digits and growing industry share for the 15th consecutive quarter. And this is no small brand. Banquet is our third largest revenue brand in the US. In fact, it remains the fastest-growing top 15 brand in the US on a volume percentage growth basis. And retailers certainly recognize this as evidenced by the 20% distribution gains in the quarter with growing distribution across every channel.

Coors Banquet 的發展勢頭持續加速，品牌銷售連續第 15 個季度實現兩位數增長，行業份額不斷增長。這不是一個小品牌。Banquet 是我們在美國第三大營收品牌。事實上，以銷售百分比成長計算，它仍然是美國成長最快的前 15 個品牌。零售商當然認識到了這一點，本季度分銷量增長了 20%，各個渠道的分銷量都在增長，這證明了這一點。

And we expect the brand's strong momentum to continue based on the distribution gains that we are seeing with spring resets. And still, Banquet has only half of the outlets buying compared to Coors Light and its awareness is significantly below those of other big beer brands. So we are investing to unlock the big opportunity that lies ahead and we see no reason Banquet can't ultimately become a top 10 US brand.

我們預計，基於春季重置帶來的分銷成長，該品牌的強勁勢頭將持續下去。但儘管如此，Banquet 的銷售據點數量只有 Coors Light 的一半，其知名度也遠低於其他大型啤酒品牌。因此，我們正在進行投資，以發掘未來的巨大機遇，我們認為 Banquet 沒有理由不能最終成為美國十大品牌之一。

In Canada, Coors Light remains the number one light beer in the industry, while the Molson family of brands gained volume share again this quarter, with gains accelerating in the quarter for this brand with deep Canadian roots. This performance has helped us to drive eight consecutive quarters of share growth despite the challenging industry backdrop.

在加拿大，Coors Light 仍然是業界排名第一的淡啤酒，而 Molson 品牌系列本季的銷售份額再次增加，而這個有著深厚加拿大根基的品牌在本季度的成長速度加快。儘管產業環境充滿挑戰，但這項業績仍幫助我們連續八個季度實現市場份額成長。

In EMEA and APAC, a number of our core power brands are leaders in their respective markets. Carling remains a top lager in the UK with strong brand equity among its core drinkers in the highly competitive UK beer market, and we have continued to take a value-over-volume approach, which is weighed on volume performance.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區，我們的許多核心強勢品牌在各自的市場中處於領先地位。在競爭激烈的英國啤酒市場中，嘉士伯啤酒仍然是英國頂級啤酒品牌，在核心飲用者中擁有強大的品牌資產，我們繼續採取「價值重於數量」的策略，以數量表現為衡量標準。

In Central and Eastern Europe, Ozujsko and Croatia maintained its position as the segment leader and continue to increase value segment share on a rolling 12-month basis while Caraiman in Romania, which launched last year and has had strong trials, continue to gain value share of segment in the quarter. This has been despite industry softness in the region related to escalating global political and economic tensions.

在中歐和東歐，奧祖伊斯科和克羅埃西亞繼續保持其細分市場領先地位，並在連續 12 個月內繼續增加其細分市場價值份額，而去年推出並經過良好試驗的羅馬尼亞 Caraiman 在本季度繼續獲得細分市場價值份額。儘管由於全球政治和經濟緊張局勢升級，該地區的工業表現疲軟，但情況仍然如此。

Turning to our premiumization priority for both beer and beyond beer. In the Americas, Canada continued to premiumize driven by the ongoing success of Miller Lite, which is the fastest-growing major beer brand in this market on a percentage basis as well as by our flavor portfolio. We are one of only two major brewers growing share of flavor in Canada.

轉向我們對啤酒和啤酒以外的高端化優先考慮。在美洲，加拿大繼續走向高端化，這得益於 Miller Lite 的持續成功，Miller Lite 是該市場上按百分比計算增長最快的主要啤酒品牌，並且得益於我們的口味組合。我們是加拿大僅有的兩家口味份額不斷增長的大型釀酒商之一。

In the US, many of our premiumization plans for this year are just getting started as we head into peak season. In beer, the Blue Moon brand family held share of industry through February, continuing the share stabilization trends we saw in the second half of last year.

在美國，隨著我們進入旺季，我們今年的許多高端化計畫才剛開始。在啤酒領域，藍月品牌系列在二月佔據行業份額，延續了去年下半年的比例穩定趨勢。

In March, Blue Moon Belgium Wine was temporarily negatively impacted as we converted from 15 packs to 12 packs to align with broader consumer preferences and given the benefits related to margins, supply chain efficiency and packaging consistency.

3 月份，藍月比利時葡萄酒暫時受到負面影響，因為我們將包裝規格從 15 瓶裝改為 12 瓶裝，以符合更廣泛的消費者偏好，並獲得與利潤、供應鏈效率和包裝一致性相關的好處。

And the positive momentum behind our newer innovation Blue Moon non-alc has continued gaining over a point of share in the non-alc beer segment in the quarter.

我們的新創新產品「藍月無酒精啤酒」的積極勢頭在本季繼續在無酒精啤酒領域獲得超過一個百分點的市場份額。

Turning now to Peroni. The plans we've been talking about for a while now are just starting to kick off. As a reminder, with onshore production, we have unlocked meaningful cost savings, which we intend to deploy towards increased distribution and awareness to drive scale and margin for this brand.

現在轉向佩羅尼。我們討論過一段時間的計劃現在才剛開始實施。提醒一下，透過在岸生產，我們已經實現了可觀的成本節約，我們打算將這些成本節約用於增加分銷和提高知名度，以推動該品牌的規模和利潤。

Through our strong commercial programs, along with improved continuity of supply and new pack sizes, we are securing more on-premise placements and expanding our presence at retail with placements up nearly 50% in chain. And while it's early days, ultimately, we expect Peroni can rival the size of other major European imports in the US over time.

透過我們強大的商業計劃，以及改進的供應連續性和新的包裝尺寸，我們正在確保更多的現場展示位置，並擴大我們在零售中的業務，連鎖店中的展示位置增加了近 50%。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們最終預計，隨著時間的推移，Peroni 的規模將與美國其他主要歐洲進口產品相提並論。

In Beyond Beer, which is an important part of our premiumization plans, non-alc is a key focus area. It's part of our strategic ambition to build a total beverage portfolio for a wide range of consumer preferences across both traditional alcohol and non-alc occasions.

作為我們高端化計劃的重要組成部分，Beyond Beer 中的無酒精啤酒是我們關注的重點領域。我們的策略目標是打造全面的飲料產品組合，滿足傳統酒精和非酒精場合的廣泛消費者偏好。

It provides us with the opportunity to capture more occasions, particularly among younger legal drinking age GenZ consumers. And we are investing behind the growing areas in non-alc, where we believe we have a right to win. Our approach in non-alc is multipronged. Within Beyond Beer, it includes pure players like ZOA, alcohol adjacent products like Fever-Tree and alcohol replacements like Naked Life.

它為我們提供了抓住更多場合的機會，特別是針對年輕的法定飲酒年齡的 Z 世代消費者。我們正在對非酒精飲料領域的成長進行投資，我們相信我們有能力在這個領域取得成功。我們在無酒精方面採取的是多管齊下的措施。Beyond Beer 旗下包括 ZOA 等純啤酒廠商、Fever-Tree 等酒類相關產品以及 Naked Life 等酒類替代品。

Last October, we increased our equity stake in ZOA to a majority position. By leading the entirety of the brand's marketing, retail and direct-to-consumer sales development and leveraging the strength of our network, we believe we can drive brand awareness and distribution. In fact, we have a significant number of new chain retailers coming on board with expanded distribution in several key accounts this spring.

去年十月，我們將 ZOA 的股權增至多數股權。透過領導品牌的整個行銷、零售和直接面向消費者的銷售發展並利用我們網絡的優勢，我們相信我們可以提高品牌知名度和分銷力。事實上，今年春季，我們有大量新的連鎖零售商加入我們，並在幾個主要客戶中擴大分銷範圍。

And we are continuing to build on our partnership with Dwayne Johnson with a new campaign that delivers an impactful functional message, supported by a bigger media push and the early consumer sentiment reads on the campaign are promising.

我們將繼續與巨石強森建立合作關係，開展一項新活動，傳遞具有影響力的功能性訊息，並得到更大規模媒體宣傳的支持，而該活動早期的消費者情緒解讀也十分樂觀。

And then there is Fever-Tree, the world's leading supplier of premium carbonated mixes with the number 1 tonic and the number 1 ginger beer in the US since 2021. Through this strategic partnership, we have the exclusive commercialization rights to the Fever-Tree brand in the US, its largest market.

還有 Fever-Tree，它是世界領先的優質碳酸混合飲料供應商，自 2021 年以來一直是美國排名第一的湯力水和排名第一的薑汁啤酒。透過此次策略合作，我們擁有了 Fever-Tree 品牌在其最大市場美國的獨家商業化權利。

Fever-Tree US volume was approximately 500,000 hectoliters in 2024. So you can see it adds real scale to our non-alc operations. This partnership has had an immediate impact as every single case we set of Fever-Tree is incremental to our business.

2024 年，Fever-Tree 美國產量約為 50 萬百公升。所以你可以看到它為我們的非酒精業務增加了真正的規模。這種合作關係產生了立竿見影的效果，因為我們為 Fever-Tree 處理的每個案例都對我們的業務產生了積極的影響。

And when you consider that Molson Coors has about 500,000 outlets buying as compared to Fever-Tree, which has the tens of thousands, we believe in the upside potential is substantial. And having just completed our distributor RFP process, we are pleased to share that Fever-Tree's direct sales to distributors will shift to the Molson Coors and affiliated non-alc beverage distributors. The excitement and responses to the RFP from the distributors demonstrate their commitment to taking Fever-Tree to the next level.

當您考慮到 Molson Coors 擁有約 500,000 個銷售點，而 Fever-Tree 只有數萬個銷售點時，我們相信其上漲潛力是巨大的。我們剛完成了經銷商 RFP 流程，很高興地告訴大家，Fever-Tree 對經銷商的直接銷售將轉向 Molson Coors 及其附屬的非酒精飲料經銷商。經銷商對 RFP 的熱情和積極回應表明了他們致力於將 Fever-Tree 提升到新水平。

So we intend to leverage the scale and strength of our distribution network, combined with our marketing capabilities to accelerate Fever-Tree's growth over time.

因此，我們打算利用我們的分銷網絡的規模和實力，結合我們的行銷能力，加速 Fever-Tree 的長期成長。

Turning to EMEA and APAC, net brand revenue was up high single digits in the quarter, continuing to support premiumization in a business for which net brand revenue is already more than half above premium. This four-year-old innovation is already a top 10 brand for us globally, and we see significant runway ahead.

轉向歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區，本季淨品牌收入實現了高個位數成長，繼續支持該業務的高端化，目前該業務的淨品牌收入已超過高端業務的一半。這項四年來的創新已經成為我們全球十大品牌之一，我們看到了巨大的發展空間。

In addition to its strong performance in the international market of the UK and a very successful launch in Bulgaria last year, we just added Madri to our portfolio in Romania in March. Our deliberate expansion of this brand is not just geographic. In March, we launched Madri 0.0 here in the UK to capitalize on the rapidly growing non-alc beer segment in the market.

除了在英國國際市場上的強勁表現以及去年在保加利亞的成功推出之外，我們剛剛在 3 月將 Madri 添加到我們在羅馬尼亞的投資組合中。我們對這個品牌的刻意擴張不僅限於地理範圍。今年 3 月，我們在英國推出了 Madri 0.0，以利用市場上快速成長的無酒精啤酒市場。

Now before I pass it to Tracy, I'll conclude by saying that these are dynamic and uncertain times. But we are taking steps to protect our profitability and free cash flow while continuing to execute our strategic initiatives, which support our long-term growth objectives.

現在，在我把它交給 Tracy 之前，我想總結一下，這是一個充滿活力和不確定的時代。但我們正在採取措施保護我們的獲利能力和自由現金流，同時繼續執行支持我們長期成長目標的策略性舉措。

We remain committed to supporting the health of our core power brands globally. We have strong plans to premiumize our global portfolio, building on successes in EMEA and APAC and Canada and executing targeted programs in the US.

我們將繼續致力於在全球範圍內支持我們核心強勢品牌的健康發展。我們制定了強有力的計劃來提升我們的全球投資組合，在歐洲、中東和非洲、亞太地區和加​​拿大取得成功的基礎上，並在美國實施有針對性的計劃。

We expect to build on and leverage our capabilities across our organization that support premiumization and focused innovation, supply chain efficiencies and and commercial effectiveness. And we intend to utilize our greatly enhanced financial flexibility to prudently invest in our business and return cash to shareholders.

我們希望在整個組織內建立和利用我們的能力，以支持高端化和重點創新、供應鏈效率和商業效益。我們打算利用大大增強的財務靈活性來審慎投資我們的業務並向股東返還現金。

Our company, through its various iterations has navigated volatile clouds for more than a century and by being proactive and adaptive, we have often emerged even stronger. We remain focused on what we can control, taking actions to help mitigate near-term challenges while continuing to invest in our business and brands in order to achieve our growth algorithm over the long term. And with that, I will pass it to Tracey.

我們公司在經歷了多個發展階段後，已經走過了一個多世紀的風雨歷程，透過積極主動和適應變化，我們變得更加強大。我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情，採取行動幫助緩解短期挑戰，同時繼續投資我們的業務和品牌，以實現我們的長期成長演算法。說完這些，我就會把它傳給 Tracey。

Thank you, Gavin. Our work over the last several years has greatly improved the efficiency of our business from supply chain to commercial operations. These efforts have helped to drive an increase in margins over the last two years and support the further expansion opportunity that underpins our long-term growth algorithm.

謝謝你，加文。我們過去幾年的工作大大提高了從供應鏈到商業營運的業務效率。這些努力有助於推動過去兩年利潤率的成長，並支持支撐我們長期成長演算法的進一步擴張機會。

There are multiple drivers that impact our margins. They include pricing, mix, input costs, volume leverage and cost savings, and the impact of those drivers vary by quarter. In the first quarter, underlying cost of goods sold per hectoliter increased 6.1%. This was mainly due to volume deleverage given the US shipment trends Gavin discussed.

有多種因素影響我們的利潤率。這些因素包括定價、產品組合、投入成本、產量槓桿和成本節約，這些驅動因素的影響因季度而異。第一季度，每百升基本銷售成本上漲6.1%。這主要是由於 Gavin 討論的美國出貨趨勢導致的銷售去槓桿。

In the first quarter, volume deleverage negatively impacted underlying cost of goods sold per hectoliter by 420 basis points while in the prior year period, volume leverage was 110 basis points benefit. Mix also contributed, driving 220 basis points of the increase in underlying cost of goods sold per hectoliter. This was due to lower contract brewing volume in North America and premiumization in each business unit. But importantly, while these mix impacts increased cost of goods sold per hectoliter, they are favorable to margins.

第一季度，銷售去槓桿對每百升基礎銷售成本產生了 420 個基點的負面影響，而去年同期，銷售槓桿帶來了 110 個基點的收益。混合物也起到了一定作用，導致每百公升銷售商品的基本成本增加了 220 個基點。這是由於北美合約釀造量較低以及各業務部門的高端化。但重要的是，雖然這些組合會影響每百公升銷售成本的增加，但它們對利潤率有利。

As for inflation, while we did experience moderated increases in input costs, this was largely offset by our ongoing cost savings and extensive hedging program. MG&A was up modestly in the quarter as increases in G&A, which included one-time transition and integration fees of approximately $30 million related to the Fever-Tree partnership were partly offset by slightly lower marketing.

至於通貨膨脹，雖然我們的投入成本確實有所增加，但這在很大程度上被我們持續的成本節約和廣泛的對沖計劃所抵消。本季度，MG&A 略有上漲，因為 G&A 的增加（其中包括與 Fever-Tree 合作相關的約 3000 萬美元的一次性過渡和整合費用）被略微下降的營銷費用部分抵消。

Turning to the balance sheet. At quarter end, net debt to underlying EBITDA was 2.47x. This was an increase from year-end 2024 as we normally see a sequential uptick in the first quarter given lower cash balances. This ratio is in alignment with our long-term target of under 2.5x and underscores the health of our balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。截至季末，淨債務與基礎 EBITDA 比率為 2.47 倍。這是自 2024 年底以來的成長，因為由於現金餘額較低，我們通常會看到第一季出現連續上漲。這一比率與我們低於 2.5 倍的長期目標一致，並凸顯了我們資產負債表的健康狀況。

This, along with the highly cash-generative nature of our business, provides us more optionality in the ways that we invest in the business, be it through capital investments that drive productivity improvement or through bolt-on M&A that support our strategic growth objectives. Our recent investments in high-growth non-alc brands like Fever-Tree are great examples.

這一點，加上我們業務的高度現金產生特性，為我們在業務投資方式上提供了更多的選擇，無論是透過推動生產力提高的資本投資，還是透過支持我們策略成長目標的附加併購。我們最近對 Fever-Tree 等高成長無酒精品牌的投資就是一個很好的例子。

It also provides us with the opportunity to return even more cash to shareholders. We paid $99 million in cash dividend and $60 million to repurchase 1 million shares in the quarter. Since the plan was announced in October 2023, we have repurchased 7.2% of our Class B shares outstanding. It's an up to five-year $2 billion plan. And as Gavin mentioned, we have utilized over 40% in just the first six quarters.

這也為我們提供了向股東返還更多現金的機會。我們在本季支付了 9,900 萬美元的現金股息，並花費 6,000 萬美元回購了 100 萬股股票。自 2023 年 10 月宣布該計劃以來，我們已回購了 7.2% 的 B 類流通股。這是一項為期五年、耗資20億美元的計畫。正如 Gavin 所提到的，光是在前六個季度，我們的利用率就已超過 40%。

And as we previously announced, in the first quarter, we raised our quarterly dividend to $0.47. This was an increase of 6.8% and represented our fourth consecutive year of increases, clearly demonstrating our intention to sustainably increase our dividends. And given our share repurchases, we were able to raise the dividend without incurring aggregate higher dividend cash payments.

正如我們之前宣布的那樣，在第一季度，我們將季度股息提高至 0.47 美元。這一增幅為 6.8%，是我們連續第四年增加股息，清楚地表明了我們持續增加股息的意圖。並且透過股票回購，我們能夠提高股息，而無需支付更高的股息現金。

And now I'll conclude with our financial outlook. First, there's a great deal of volatility in the global macro environment, resulting in uncertainty around the effects of geopolitical events and global trade policy, including the impact from economic growth, consumer trends and currency. These impacts are multifaceted and difficult to predict.

現在我將總結一下我們的財務展望。首先，全球宏觀環境波動較大，地緣政治事件、全球貿易政策等影響存在不確定性，包括經濟成長、消費趨勢、貨幣等因素的影響。這些影響是多方面的，而且難以預測。

And while we have included in our guidance, our best estimate of some of these factors, external drivers may significantly impact our actual results either up or down. Fortunately, as Gavin mentioned earlier, while we are a global business, our beers and beverages are generally made in the markets in which they are sold. Meaning, the vast majority of our brands sold in the US are made in the US with US ingredients, and that is the same for our Canadian business.

雖然我們已經將對其中一些因素的最佳估計納入了我們的指導中，但外部驅動因素可能會對我們的實際結果產生顯著的影響，無論是上升還是下降。幸運的是，正如加文之前提到的，雖然我們是一家全球性企業，但我們的啤酒和飲料通常是在其銷售的市場中生產的。這意味著，我們在美國銷售的絕大多數品牌都是在美國生產、使用美國原料，我們的加拿大業務也是如此。

We have a limited number of brands that we import into the US and their volumes are relatively small. For example, we import Molson Canadian from Canada and Sol from Mexico, again, both very small brands in the US.

我們進口到美國的品牌數量有限，而且數量相對較少。例如，我們從加拿大進口 Molson Canadian，從墨西哥進口 Sol，同樣，這兩個都是美國非常小的品牌。

Also, since a significant portion of our direct materials are sourced domestically or are USMCA compliance, we don't expect a material direct impact from the known tariffs on our input costs. Therefore, we believe we are one of the better positioned businesses in our category.

此外，由於我們的直接材料很大一部分來自國內或符合 USMCA 規定，我們預計已知關稅不會對我們的投入成本產生重大直接影響。因此，我們相信我們是同類企業中地位較優越的企業之一。

So we continue to evaluate options to mitigate exposure and risk. For example, leveraging additional domestic supply where possible. And while tariffs have had indirect impact, causing fluctuations in commodity costs plus the Midwest Premium, our extensive hedging program can help to mitigate some of that exposure.

因此，我們將繼續評估減輕風險敞口和風險的選項。例如，盡可能利用額外的國內供應。雖然關稅產生了間接影響，導致商品成本和中西部溢價波動，但我們廣泛的對沖計劃可以幫助減輕部分風險。

Lastly, please remember that net sales revenue and underlying pretax income growth guidance metrics are on a constant currency basis and underlying earnings per share is not. Therefore, fluctuations in the US dollar will impact our reported results as well as underlying earnings per share growth and in the effective period using the current exchange rate.

最後，請記住，淨銷售收入和稅前收入成長指引是基於固定貨幣計算的，而每股盈餘則不是。因此，美元波動將影響我們的報告結果以及每股盈餘的成長以及使用當前匯率的有效期間。

With that said, as Gavin discussed, we have updated several of our guidance metrics due to softer industry trends that we believe most expected, which we attribute to the macro shift that we have discussed that have driven consumer uncertainty and pressure consumption trends. As such, we have updated certain key guidance metrics.

話雖如此，正如加文 (Gavin) 所討論的那樣，由於我們認為大多數人預期的行業趨勢疲軟，我們更新了一些指導指標，我們將其歸因於我們討論過的宏觀轉變，這種轉變導致了消費者的不確定性並給消費趨勢帶來了壓力。因此，我們更新了某些關鍵指導指標。

We now expect a low single-digit net sales revenue decline on a constant currency basis as compared to low single-digit growth previously, a low single-digit underlying pretax income decline on a constant currency basis as compared to mid-single-digit growth previously. A low single-digit underlying earnings per share growth as compared to high single-digit growth previously.

我們現在預計，以固定匯率計算，淨銷售收入將出現低個位數下降，而先前的成長預期為低個位數；以固定匯率計算，基礎稅前收入將出現低個位數下降，而先前的成長預期為中等個位數。與先前的高個位數成長相比，每股收益成長率較低。

Lower capital expenditures incurred of $650 million, plus or minus 5% as compared to $750 million plus or minus 5% previously. All remaining metrics are unchanged, including underlying free cash flow of $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%.

資本支出降低至 6.5 億美元，上下浮動 5%，而先前的資本支出為 7.5 億美元，上下浮動 5%。所有剩餘指標保持不變，包括 13 億美元的基礎自由現金流（上下浮動 10%）。

Turning to our guidance drivers. Our top line assumes an anticipated annual net price increase of 1% to 2% in North America, in line with the average historical range and for other markets to trend in line with inflation. It also assumes mix benefits from cycling contract growing from 2024 as well as from premiumization.

轉向我們的指導驅動程式。我們的主要假設是，北美的年度淨價格預計將上漲 1% 至 2%，與歷史平均水平一致，而其他市場的趨勢也將與通貨膨脹保持一致。它還假設從 2024 年開始的自行車合約成長以及高端化將帶來混合效益。

In 2025, we expect to continue to grow above-premium net brand revenue in EMEA and APAC and Canada as well as make progress in the US, where, as Gavin shared, we remain committed to turning Blue Moon around and are embarking on big plans for Peroni and non-alc.

2025 年，我們預計 EMEA、APAC 和加拿大的高端淨品牌收入將繼續增長，並在美國取得進展，正如 Gavin 所說，我們仍然致力於扭轉 Blue Moon 的局面，並正在為 Peroni 和非酒精飲料製定宏偉計劃。

While Fever-Tree and the consolidation of ZOA provide incremental benefits to the top line, we will also be cycling revenue from the smaller regional craft breweries we divested in the first quarter of 2024, and more significantly, 2024 Peps and Labatt contract brewing volume as again, these contracts terminated at the end of last year.

雖然 Fever-Tree 和 ZOA 的合併為營收帶來了增量收益，但我們也將循環利用 2024 年第一季剝離的小型區域精釀啤酒廠的收入，更重要的是，2024 年 Peps 和 Labatt 的合約釀造量，因為這些合約已於去年年底終止。

On a combined basis, we expect related $1.9 million hectoliter headwind to America financial volume in 2025. In the first quarter, we cycled about 590,000 hectoliters of this contract brewing volume on a combined basis. We will cycle a similar amount in the second quarter.

綜合來看，我們預期 2025 年美國經濟總量將面臨 190 萬百公升的逆風。第一季度，我們共計了約 59 萬百升的合約釀造量。我們將在第二季度循環類似數量。

Also recall that last year, we had higher than typical inventory bold in the US related to the Fort Worth strike, which ended in mid-May. As a result, STWs outpace STRs by approximately 1.1 million hectoliters in the first half with STWs exceeding STR by about 350,000 hectoliters in the second quarter of 2024. So given that hurdle in the second quarter, we anticipate that this year's shipment trend catch-up to STRs will occur primarily in the third quarter.

還記得，去年，由於五月中旬結束的沃斯堡罷工，美國的庫存量高於平均水準。因此，2024 年上半年 STW 產量比 STR 產量多出約 110 萬百升，而 2024 年第二季 STW 產量比 STR 產量多出約 35 萬百升。因此，考慮到第二季的障礙，我們預計今年的出貨量追趕 STR 的趨勢將主要發生在第三季。

Moving down the P&L. We expect fixed benefits from lower contract brewing and increased premiumization, moderating inflation on input costs and productivity improvements and cost savings to be offset by higher than previously expected volume deleverage given industry volume trends.

降低損益。我們預計，合約釀造成本降低、高端化程度提高、投入成本通膨減緩、生產率提高和成本節約帶來的固定收益，將被高於先前預期的行業產量趨勢下的產量去槓桿所抵消。

We continue to expect MG&A to be up for the year. This is largely driven by higher G&A related to our non-alc initiative, which include infrastructure investments to support our total non-alc business as well as Fever-Tree one-time transition and integration fees.

我們仍然預期 MG&A 今年的股價將會上漲。這主要是由於我們非酒精業務計劃相關的一般及行政費用增加，其中包括支持我們整體非酒精業務的基礎設施投資以及 Fever-Tree 一次性過渡和整合費用。

Due to the timing of the RFP process, in addition to the approximately $50 million recorded in the first quarter, we expect to record a remaining amount of under $10 million in the second quarter. However, we expect to recover these fees in the form of a credit to net sales revenue over the next three years. These G&A increases are expected to be partly offset by deliberate actions to manage our near-term cost structure given the current macro environment.

由於 RFP 流程的時間安排，除了第一季記錄的約 5,000 萬美元外，我們預計第二季還將記錄不到 1,000 萬美元的剩餘金額。然而，我們預計在未來三年內以淨銷售收入的形式收回這些費用。鑑於當前的宏觀環境，我們為管理近期成本結構所採取的刻意措施預計將部分抵銷這些一般及行政費用的增加。

For example, we are taking a deliberate and more restrictive approach to our recruitment efforts in the near term, and we intend to reduce certain non-business-critical discretionary items like travel and entertainment. As for marketing, we intend to put the right commercial pressure behind our brands with strong investments behind our core power brands, Peroni, the Blue Moon family, Madri and our non-alc portfolio.

例如，我們近期將對招聘工作採取慎重且更為嚴格的措施，並打算減少某些非業務關鍵性的可自由支配項目，如差旅和招待費用。至於行銷，我們打算對我們的品牌施加正確的商業壓力，並對我們的核心強勢品牌 Peroni、Blue Moon 系列、Madri 和我們的無酒精產品組合進行大力投資。

We are also refining and prioritizing our capital projects for 2025. As a result, we are reducing our guidance for capital expenditures by $100 million, postponing certain projects that do not relate to significant cost savings or critical growth initiatives. We are committed to protecting and growing our underlying free cash flow while making prudent capital allocation decisions that support our growth initiatives and allow us to return cash to shareholders.

我們也正在完善和確定 2025 年資本項目的優先順序。因此，我們將資本支出指導額度減少 1 億美元，並推遲某些與大幅成本節約或關鍵成長計畫無關的項目。我們致力於保護和增加我們的基礎自由現金流，同時做出審慎的資本配置決策，以支持我們的成長計劃並使我們能夠向股東返還現金。

To sum it up, these are uncertain times, but we believe we have the right strategy and a healthy balance sheet and strong cash generation to continue to execute it while continuing to return cash to shareholders. We believe we are taking the necessary steps to help protect profitability in the near term while supporting the health of our business and brands in the medium and long term.

總而言之，這是一個不確定的時期，但我們相信我們擁有正確的策略、健康的資產負債表和強勁的現金產生能力，可以繼續執行該策略，同時繼續向股東返還現金。我們相信，我們正在採取必要措施，以幫助保護短期獲利能力，同時支持我們業務和品牌的中長期健康發展。

Now before we open it up to your questions, Gavin has a few closing remarks. Gavin?

在我們開始回答你們的問題之前，加文想講幾句結束語。加文？

Thanks, Tracey. A few weeks ago, the company announced my intention to retire at the end of this year. After nearly 45 years in the workforce and 28 years in this incredible industry, I thought it was time. I am so proud to have been a part of Molson Coors many accomplishments over the decades and honored to have led this great company for the last six years.

謝謝，特蕾西。幾週前，公司宣布我打算在今年底退休。在工作了近 45 年並在這個令人難以置信的行業中工作了 28 年後，我認為是時候了。我很自豪能夠成為 Molson Coors 數十年來取得許多成就的一部分，並很榮幸在過去六年中領導這家偉大的公司。

Now while the Board executes our succession process, I want you to know that it is business as usual at Molson Coors. We remain hard at work, executing our strategy and focused on achieving our revised financial objectives this year.

現在，董事會正在執行我們的繼任程序，我想讓你們知道，莫爾森庫爾斯的業務一切照常。我們將繼續努力工作，執行我們的策略，並專注於實現今年修訂後的財務目標。

As I prepare to step aside, I remain confident in the beer industry, in the company's position, its business plans and its future. So I look forward to continuing to engage with you all, the investment community in the months ahead as we set up the next leader to build on the company's success.

當我準備卸任時，我仍然對啤酒業、對公司的地位、業務計劃和未來充滿信心。因此，我期待在未來幾個月繼續與各位投資界人士保持聯繫，我們將選出下一任領導人，繼續鞏固公司的成功。

And with that, we will take your questions. Operator?

接下來，我們將回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

And Gavin, congratulations on the announcement. And I guess if it's a -- thank you for all the patience, right? I know we've badgered a lot over the years and really appreciate that. You've maintained your patience with us over that time.

加文，祝賀你宣布這一消息。我想如果這是——感謝您的耐心，對吧？我知道這些年來我們已經糾纏了很多，對此我深表感激。一直以來，您都對我們保持著耐心。

Thanks for that, Brian. I appreciate it.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我很感激。

You're welcome. I have two questions. One is just with regards to this year, maybe Gavin, just at a high level and/or Tracey, just I guess if I'm reading the press release in the prepared remarks, what's changed since the start of this year is really just the US market slower industry, slower than, I guess, we all expected at the start? And I guess, perhaps a little bit of the promotional elements in, I guess, mostly in Europe.

不客氣。我有兩個問題。一個是關於今年的，也許是加文（Gavin），只是高層，和/或特蕾西（Tracey），只是我想，如果我在準備好的發言中閱讀新聞稿，那麼自今年年初以來發生的變化實際上只是美國市場行業發展放緩，我想，比我們一開始預期的要慢？我想，也許其中有一點促銷元素，主要是在歐洲。

So just -- and I asked this just in the context of the guidance implies a bit of an improvement in organic sales over the back half of the year. And aside from the stuff that we know in terms of the comps from last year, I'm just trying to isolate like what should be -- what we should be watching as we go through the balance of the year to support, right, what's implied as an improvement in organic sales in the back half or in the back three quarters?

所以只是——我只是在指導的背景下問這個問題，這意味著今年下半年有機銷售額會有所改善。除了我們所了解的去年同期數據之外，我只是想找出我們應該關注的——在度過今年的剩餘時間時，我們應該關注什麼，對吧，這意味著下半年或後三個季度的有機銷售額會有所改善？

Thanks, Bryan, and thanks for the question. Look, I think a lot of what happened in the first quarter was expected by us, and I think we communicated that on the fourth quarter earnings call, right? So the shipment timing issue given the Fort Worth strike was expected. The Fever-Tree one-time costs were also expected. They were a little higher than we had originally anticipated, but we certainly expected the one-time costs that came through from Fever-Tree.

謝謝，布萊恩，謝謝你的提問。聽著，我認為第一季發生的很多事情都在我們的預料之中，而且我認為我們在第四季度財報電話會議上已經傳達了這一點，對嗎？因此，沃斯堡罷工造成的運送時間問題是可以預料到的。Fever-Tree 的一次性成本也在預料中。這些費用比我們最初預期的要高一些，但我們確實預料到了 Fever-Tree 帶來的一次性成本。

What was unexpected was the macroeconomic conditions, which have surrounded us and frankly, every -- almost every consumer company that has released results over the last few weeks as reported challenges with consumer confidence and consumer demand. So we certainly didn't have an industry forecast of down around 5% in our coming in position.

出乎意料的是宏觀經濟狀況，坦白說，過去幾週幾乎每一家發布業績的消費品公司都報告稱，消費者信心和消費者需求面臨挑戰。因此，我們當然沒有預料到產業會對我們的地位造成 5% 左右的下降。

And if you look out to the balance of the year and you compare it with what happened last year, if you remember, in the summer of last year, we saw economic pressure, and that caused some value-seeking behavior by the consumers, and it had a direct impact on category performance. And so while they were certainly the case and the largest selling season last year, by the time we got to the end of the year, it had recovered.

如果你回顧今年的收支平衡，並將其與去年的情況進行比較，如果你還記得，去年夏天，我們看到了經濟壓力，這導致了消費者的一些價值追求行為，並直接影響了類別表現。儘管去年確實是銷售旺季，但到了年底，銷量已經恢復。

So our forecast is that it doesn't include an ongoing consistent down 5% -- around 5% industry for the rest of the year. It does anticipate that the industry will improve from its current trend line. So hopefully, that's helpful.

因此，我們的預測是，它不包括今年剩餘時間內持續下降 5%（約 5%）的行業。它確實預計該行業將從目前的趨勢線開始改善。希望這會有所幫助。

And maybe just to add to that, as Tracey said on the call, the pricing environment, we expect it to fall into that 1% to 2% historical range that we talked about last time as well. I think the other important point to note is that a lot of our activity -- a lot of our plans hit in the second quarter. And so whilst we've already seen a really nice improvement in the trends of Peroni, for example, the plans really only hit now.

也許只是補充一點，正如 Tracey 在電話中所說的那樣，我們預計定價環境將落入我們上次討論的 1% 到 2% 的歷史範圍內。我認為需要注意的另一個重要點是，我們的許多活動——許多計劃都在第二季實現。因此，儘管我們已經看到 Peroni 的趨勢有了非常好的改善，但這些計劃現在才真正開始實施。

And obviously, we've only had Fever-Tree for a couple of months in the first quarter and our integration and plans for that are still ahead of us and together every case of Fever-Tree we sell is incremental to our business. So hopefully, that helps, Bryan. Thanks.

顯然，我們在第一季才推出了 Fever-Tree 幾個月，我們的整合和計劃仍在進行中，而且我們銷售的每一箱 Fever-Tree 都會對我們的業務產生增量作用。希望這對你有幫助，布萊恩。謝謝。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

All right. Yes, congratulations from me too, Gavin. I guess, a follow-up. I wanted to ask a follow-up question on guidance. Given, I guess, the weak Q1 results, I'd like to hear if you're losing more share than you thought?

好的。是的，我也祝賀你，加文。我想，這是一個後續行動。我想問一個關於指導的後續問題。我想，鑑於第一季業績疲軟，我想聽聽你們失去的市場份額是否比你想像的要多？

I guess, I assume your retained share that you've talked about in the past is now below the 80%. So if you could update us on that, that would be great. And then maybe just a little bit more color, Gavin, on the month-to-month trends during the quarter and whether your trends have accelerated in April and then into May. I guess I'm really trying to gauge the current run rate of your business in the context of the slower-than-expected Q1.

我想，我假設您過去談到的保留份額現在低於 80%。因此，如果您能向我們通報這一情況，那就太好了。然後，加文，也許您可以更詳細地介紹本季的月度趨勢，以及您的趨勢是否在 4 月和 5 月加速。我想我確實想在第一季低於預期的情況下衡量貴公司目前的業務運作率。

Thanks, Bonnie. Look, from a retention of our core power brands in the US, that meaningful step-up that took place in 2023. We've retained almost all of that. I think when you look at where our core brands were before Q1 of -- or Q2 of 2023, they were at around 13.5 share. And they almost immediately jumped up over the three-month time period in the following quarter to about 15.6. And at the end of Q1, we're at 15.4.

謝謝，邦妮。從我們在美國保留核心強勢品牌的角度來看，2023 年取得了有意義的進步。我們幾乎保留了所有這些。我認為，當您查看我們的核心品牌在 2023 年第一季或第二季之前的情況時，它們的份額約為 13.5%。在接下來的一個季度的三個月內，這一數字幾乎立即躍升至約 15.6。截至第一季末，我們的數字為 15.4。

So we've retained almost every piece of share that we gained. And I would attribute that to the health of our core brands, Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet. I would attribute that to the tremendous work of our chain teams in gaining significant share of shelf space and actually retaining it, which is our expectation, the spring resets, all the data that we've got suggests that we're going to retain and actually grow a little bit of share, particularly with Coors Banquet.

因此，我們保留了幾乎每一部分所獲得的份額。我認為這要歸功於我們的核心品牌 Coors Light、Miller Lite 和 Coors Banquet 的良好表現。我認為這是因為我們的連鎖團隊在獲得相當大的貨架空間份額並實際保留它方面所做的大量工作，這是我們的預期，春季重置，我們得到的所有數據都表明我們將保留並實際上增加一點份額，特別是 Coors Banquet。

Coors Banquet's trends are just on fire and it's being represented in our shelf resets. So I think that's the first point, Bonnie, is that we have returned a substantial amount of the share that we gained from a call point of view.

Coors Banquet 的流行趨勢非常火爆，這在我們的貨架重置中得到了體現。所以我認為這是第一點，邦妮，從看漲的角度來看，我們已經返還了我們所獲得的大量份額。

As far as our total share trends are concerned, they have sequentially improved quarter-over-quarter since the third quarter of last year. In Q3, I think we lost about 1 percentage in Q4 that improved 2.7%. And in the first quarter of this year, that improved 2.6%. Our trends have been improving quarter-over-quarter. Our Q1 trends were relatively stable through about the middle of the month.

就我們的整體份額趨勢而言，自去年第三季以來，份額趨勢逐季改善。在第三季度，我認為我們在第四季度損失了約 1%，但成長了 2.7%。今年第一季度，這一數字提高了 2.6%。我們的趨勢逐季度都在改善。截至本月中旬，我們的第一季趨勢相對穩定。

We did in mid-March, have a little bit of accelerated share loss. That was two reasons. One is we made a pack -- quite a meaningful pack ship change with our Blue Moon brand moving from 15s to 12s, and that caused quite a lot of disruption from a Blue Moon point of view. And Simply brand share decline also accelerated because McMillan innovation, which we had in Q1 of last year and innovation on some piece actually coming in Q2 of this year. So a little bit of a of a timing difference there.

我們在三月中旬確實出現了一點加速的份額損失。這是兩個原因。一是我們製作了一個包裝——這是一個相當有意義的包裝船變化，我們的藍月品牌從 15 秒變為 12 秒，從藍月的角度來看，這造成了相當大的混亂。而 Simply 品牌份額的下滑也加速了，因為 McMillan 創新（我們在去年第一季就進行了創新）以及今年第二季實際推出的一些產品創新。因此，存在一點時間差異。

From an overall industry point of view, there has been some improvement in the industry in the last four of April. And obviously, as I said to -- in response to Bryan's question, we are not anticipating that the industry will continue to decline at that sort of around 5% range as we go forward. So hopefully, that's helpful, Bonnie.

從整個產業來看，四月底產業情勢有所改善。顯然，正如我在回答布萊恩的問題時所說的那樣，我們並不認為該行業在未來會繼續以 5% 左右的幅度下滑。希望這對你有幫助，邦妮。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

Gavin, congrats on the announcement. Maybe I want to start with the question on the beer category. Generally, look, it's been a pretty soft Q1. We've seen the trends to really not really accelerate that much into April, adjusted for the Easter timing.

加文，祝賀你宣布這一消息。也許我想從有關啤酒類別的問題開始。整體而言，第一季表現相當疲軟。我們發現，根據復活節時間進行調整後，四月的趨勢實際上並沒有加速那麼多。

I'm just curious what are your expectations for the balance of the year? You think like a decline more in the 3% to 4% is possible for category or like more down (technical difficulty) expecting within the 2025 guidance?

我只是好奇您對今年剩餘時間的期望是什麼？您認為該類別可能出現 3% 至 4% 的進一步下降，或預計 2025 年指導範圍內會出現更多下降（技術難度）嗎？

Filippo, I'm sorry, I caught the first part of your question, but I don't think perhaps the second part at all. So if you wouldn't mind just repeating the second part, we didn't catch that at all. It was a lot of disruption.

菲利波，很抱歉，我明白了你問題的第一部分，但我可能完全不明白你的第二部分。所以如果你不介意的話，請重複第二部分，我們根本沒聽懂。這造成了很大的混亂。

Yes, absolutely. So the second part on tariffs, I was just curious if you can put some numbers in terms of the magnitude of the impact on a gross basis, and just the mitigation actions as well.

是的，絕對是。因此，關於關稅的第二部分，我只是好奇您是否可以提供一些數字來表明整體影響的程度，以及緩解措施。

Thanks, Filippo, got that for a second time around. Tracey will handle that in a second. But from an overall industry point of view, look, we don't have a public forecast of the industry for the year or the balance of the year. But just to reiterate for perspective within the guidance that we are now revising, we have assumed that the industry will be better than what we've seen to start the year, which was down around that 5% in Q1.

謝謝，菲利波，這是第二次了。特蕾西馬上就會處理好這件事。但從整個產業的角度來看，我們並沒有對今年或全年的產業狀況做出公開的預測。但是，為了重申我們現在正在修改的指導意見，我們假設該行業的表現將比年初更好，第一季的下降幅度約為 5%。

And we do expect over the balance of the year that we'll see the similar trend lines that we've seen over the last few years. Obviously, one quarter doesn't a year make. And there were some -- we've talked about the consumer confidence challenges in the macroeconomic environments. And obviously, we can't predict when that will end, but they are certainly cyclical, and they will end. The timing of that is obviously uncertain. Tracey, do you want to talk about tariffs?

我們確實預計，在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們將看到與過去幾年類似的趨勢線。顯然，一個季度並不能代表一年。還有一些——我們已經討論了宏觀經濟環境中的消費者信心挑戰。顯然，我們無法預測這種情況何時會結束，但它們肯定是週期性的，而且會結束。顯然，具體時間尚不確定。崔西，你想談談關稅嗎？

Yes. So look, from an input cost point of view, Filippo, we import a very small portion of our US portfolio from Canada and Mexico. It's really only Molson and Sol respectively, which is really small volume for the US markets. We do import the majority of Fever-Tree from Europe, but we have the ability to onshore this brand through co-manufacturing, et cetera, in our network.

是的。所以，菲利波，從投入成本的角度來看，我們從加拿大和墨西哥進口的美國產品組合只有很小一部分。實際上只有 Molson 和 Sol 兩個品牌，對於美國市場來說，銷售量確實很小。我們確實從歐洲進口了大部分 Fever-Tree 產品，但我們有能力透過我們的網路進行聯合製造等方式將該品牌引入國內。

One of the bigger impacts would have been Peroni, but of course, now the majority of that is produced in the US. So that has estimated has us from tariffs. The majority -- as we said, the majority of our direct materials are sourced domestically, and we USMCA compliance. So an immaterial impact from an input cost point of view.

其中一個較大的影響因素可能是佩羅尼 (Peroni)，但當然，現在大部分的佩羅尼產品都是在美國生產。所以這已經估算了我們的關稅。正如我們所說，我們的大部分直接材料都來自國內，而且我們遵守 USMCA。因此，從投入成本的角度來看，影響並不重大。

The one thing that we have spoken about is our extensive hedging program. And so we've been able to hedge commodities even though we source locally for local production. But we have also spoken about the Midwest Premium. That's one of the commodities that is difficult because of the lack of transparency to the pricing of that commodity as well as the ability to hedge that is not as liquid as some of our other commodities.

我們討論過的一件事就是我們的廣泛對沖計劃。因此，儘管我們在當地採購商品並進行當地生產，我們也能夠對沖商品。但我們也談到了中西部優質產品。這是比較困難的商品之一，因為該商品的定價缺乏透明度，而且對沖能力也不像我們的其他一些商品那樣具有流動性。

So that is the one area that doesn't sort of behave the way that we would expect market dynamics to behave for commodities. But really, we don't expect a material impact from known tariffs right now on our input costs.

因此，這是一個與我們預期的大宗商品市場動態表現不同的領域。但實際上，我們預期目前已知的關稅不會對我們的投入成本產生重大影響。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

I wanted to follow up on this. I wanted to follow up around cost, inflation and gross margin then a quick follow-up for Gavin. So this was the first quarter I believe, of small net favorability in cost inflation within your COGS per hectoliter disclosures in the past few years. Is there a reason that, that would change notably in the coming quarters?

我想跟進此事。我想跟進成本、通貨膨脹和毛利率，然後快速跟進 Gavin 的情況。因此，我認為這是過去幾年中，成本通膨在每百升 COGS 揭露範圍內淨利差較小的第一個季度。是否有理由認為這種情況在未來幾季會發生顯著變化？

I know you don't guide on these types of topics, but just evolution of hedges, Midwest Premium, tariff inflation. I'm just struck that that is a slight favorability in the context of recent history, and you sound comfortable around overall inflation. And I just wonder if you could contextualize that in the context of maybe like medium-term evolution of that specific bucket?

我知道您不會指導這些類型的主題，但只會指導對沖的演變、中西部溢價、關稅通膨。我只是覺得，在最近的歷史背景下，這是一種略微有利的情況，而且你聽起來對整體通膨很放心。我只是想知道您是否可以將其置於該特定桶的中期演變背景下進行闡述？

Then just the follow-up would be Gavin regarding timing of leadership transition, the types of leaders that you and the Board will be assessing. I love any context on that, and hearty congratulations as well.

接下來是 Gavin 的後續問題，涉及領導層過渡的時間，以及您和董事會將評估的領導類型。我喜歡任何與此相關的背景信息，也衷心祝賀。

Thanks very much, Chris. I'll take your second question first, and then Tracey can take the cost of goods sold one. Look, the process is underway. The Board is looking at internal candidates and external candidates. Obviously, the top priority is to navigate the process very thoughtfully. In terms of capabilities, I expect the Board is paying a lot of attention to both relevant and business and leadership experience along with the culture context.

非常感謝，克里斯。我先回答你的第二個問題，然後 Tracey 可以回答商品銷售成本問題。看，這個過程正在進行中。董事會正在尋找內部候選人和外部候選人。顯然，當務之急是要非常謹慎地引導這個過程。在能力方面，我希望董事會能高度重視相關的業務和領導經驗以及文化背景。

The culture that we've built here at Molson Coors is very special, and the Board is intention appointing a new CEO who will be able to galvanize our people and our partners around clear vision for the next stage of our company. I think it's important to say that the Board believes in our current long-term strategy. So obviously, a new CEO will put their own stamp on the company, but the Board is supportive of our long-term strategy.

我們在 Molson Coors 建立的文化非常特殊，董事會打算任命一位新的首席執行官，他將能夠激勵我們的員工和合作夥伴圍繞公司下一階段的清晰願景。我認為，董事會相信我們目前的長期策略，這一點很重要。顯然，新任執行長將在公司留下自己的印記，但董事會支持我們的長期策略。

And as I said in my -- I think my closing remarks, Chris, business as usual. I'm going to run through the tape to the end of the year. Trace, cost of goods sold.

正如我在結束語中所說的那樣，克里斯，一切照常。我要把這盤錄音帶一直播放到年底。追踪，銷售商品成本。

Yes. So thanks, Chris. So in terms of our outlook for COGS for 2025, as we said, in our Q4 when we were issuing guidance, we do expect underlying COGS per hectoliter to increase for 2025 due to inflation. But you're right, a lot of the investments that we've made in our business around -- particularly on the COGS line to drive efficiencies and cost savings. We're starting to see that come through.

是的。所以謝謝你，克里斯。因此，就我們對 2025 年 COGS 的展望而言，正如我們在第四季度發布指引時所說，我們確實預計由於通貨膨脹，2025 年每百升的基本 COGS 將會增加。但您說得對，我們在業務中所做的大量投資——特別是在 COGS 線上，是為了提高效率和節省成本。我們開始看到這一點實現。

So inflation did have a smaller impact to our Q1 numbers because a large part of that was offset by our cost savings. The other part of our COGS was the deleverage that we've spoken about. The biggest driver was around deleverage as we got out of the contract brewing arrangement but also some of the STRs driving our financial volume.

因此，通貨膨脹對我們的第一季業績的影響較小，因為其中很大一部分被我們的成本節約所抵銷。我們的 COGS 的另一部分是我們談論的去槓桿。最大的驅動力是去槓桿，因為我們擺脫了合約釀造安排，而一些 STR 也推動了我們的財務量。

And then the other thing just to note is that we do have the extensive hedging program. But as I said to the previous question, the Midwest Premium is the one that is a little bit more difficult to predict just because of the lack of transparency to that pricing. But in terms of hedging, we use our extensive hedging program to try and mitigate a lot of the volatility. And I think you're seeing that come through in our results for the quarter and with our guidance for the balance of the year.

另一件需要注意的事情是，我們確實有廣泛的對沖計劃。但正如我在回答上一個問題時所說，中西部地區的溢價有點難以預測，因為定價缺乏透明度。但在對沖方面，我們使用廣泛的對沖計劃來嘗試減輕很多波動。我想您會在我們的本季業績和全年業績預測中看到這一點。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Gavin, congrats from my end as well. I wanted to follow up just on category growth. And clearly, it's a more challenging backdrop. But just given where -- how do you dissect what's cyclical given the macro versus what may be happening structurally?

加文，我也向你表示祝賀。我只是想跟進類別的成長情況。顯然，這是一個更具挑戰性的背景。但是，僅考慮到——您如何剖析宏觀上的週期性因素以及可能發生的結構性事件？

And then a follow-up to Filippo's question. I get you don't have a category growth target and maybe this is too specific. But just as we continue to monitor category trends, do you have a view on when you would anticipate category trends to improve? Or do you have a thought in terms of what category growth [happen] for the second quarter?

然後回答 Filippo 的問題。我知道你沒有類別成長目標，也許這太具體了。但是，正如我們繼續監測類別趨勢一樣，您是否認為類別趨勢何時會改善？或者您對第二季度哪些類別會出現成長有什麼想法？

Thanks, Peter. Look, I think it's certainly clear to us that the incremental softness that we've seen in the industry is macro-driven. And obviously, we're taking actions and steps to protect our profitability in the near term but continue to support our brands through that.

謝謝，彼得。看起來，我認為我們很清楚，我們所看到的行業逐漸疲軟是由宏觀因素驅動的。顯然，我們正在採取行動和措施來保護我們短期內的獲利能力，但會繼續以這種方式支持我們的品牌。

The timing of these macro-driven trends is obviously not something that we can forecast. And what we do know though is that it's cyclical. And our expectation is over the balance of the year that we'll see a move back to industry trends, which we've experienced over the last few years. So whilst we don't have a public forecast industry, obviously, our guidance is built on our own forecast internally as to where we see the industry landing for the full year.

這些宏觀驅動趨勢的時間顯然是我們無法預測的。但我們確實知道它是周期性的。我們預計，今年餘下時間裡，我們將看到產業趨勢回歸到過去幾年所經歷的水平。因此，雖然我們沒有公開的產業預測，但顯然，我們的指導是建立在我們自己內部的預測之上的，也就是我們對全年產業發展前景的預測。

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

羅伯特‧奧滕斯坦 (Robert Ottenstein)，Evercore ISI。

This is Greg on for Robert. In the press release, you guys talked about the heightened competitive landscape in EMEA and APAC. Maybe if you could just dive into a bit more about what you're seeing broadly in each of those two regions?

這是格雷格代替羅伯特。在新聞稿中，你們談到了歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區日益激烈的競爭格局。也許您可以更深入地談談您對這兩個地區的整體看法？

Thanks very much, Peter -- Greg, sorry. Look, I mean, obviously, in the UK, I think we said it. The industry did have a soft start to the year. That did continue the trend that we've seen in consumer demand in the UK last year, with the market being down on a volume basis. I think as we've said consistently now for a few quarters, and this hasn't changed as the market has been increasingly competitive. So there has been a higher promotional intensity across both channels, the on- and the off-premise.

非常感謝，彼得——格雷格，對不起。你看，我的意思是，顯然，在英國，我想我們說過這一點。今年該行業確實開局疲軟。這確實延續了我們去年在英國看到的消費者需求趨勢，即市場銷售下滑。我認為，正如我們幾個季度以來一直在說的那樣，儘管市場競爭日益激烈，但這種情況並沒有改變。因此，店內和店外兩個通路的促銷力道都更大。

Our largest brand in the Uk, Carling, we've taken a value-over-volume strategy. We're focusing on the strength of the brand versus the competitors, and we are trying hard to leverage the strongest link that we have, which is soccer. So a lot of our activity in the first quarter has been focused on the FA Cup.

對於我們在英國最大的品牌 Carling，我們採取了「價值重於數量」的策略。我們專注於品牌相對於競爭對手的實力，並努力利用我們擁有的最強大的聯繫，那就是足球。因此，我們第一季的許多活動都集中在足總盃上。

And Madri, our best innovation in a long time continues to drive both volume and value growth across both channels beyond on-premise and the off-premise and we see lots more runway for this brand in the UK, and we've just launched it in new markets in Bulgaria and Romania.

Madri 是我們長期以來最好的創新，它繼續推動店內和店外兩個管道的銷售和價值增長，我們看到這個品牌在英國有更大的發展空間，我們剛剛在保加利亞和羅馬尼亞的新市場推出了它。

If you go across into Central and Eastern Europe, the beer industry remains sluggish. Again, it's driven by a decline in consumer confidence, partly because of the macroeconomic environment, which exists there as well, but the added negative of global political and economic tensions which have escalated since last year. So we are seeing promotional -- higher promotional pressures across most of the markets we're operating in, in Central and Eastern Europe.

如果你深入中歐和東歐，你會發現啤酒產業依然低迷。再一次，這是由消費者信心下降所致，部分原因是那裡也存在宏觀經濟環境，但自去年以來全球政治和經濟緊張局勢不斷升級也帶來了負面影響。因此，我們看到，在我們經營的大多數中歐和東歐市場，促銷壓力都更大了。

But we remain optimistic about the growth potential of our business, and we're executing against our plans. It includes lots of investment behind our national power brands. We're supporting the recent launches that we did in the above premium space with Madri in Bulgaria and now Romania as well this year.

但我們仍然對業務的成長潛力持樂觀態度，並且正在按照計劃執行。其中包括對我們國家強勢品牌的大量投資。我們今年將與保加利亞的 Madri 以及羅馬尼亞的 Madri 合作，支持我們在上述高端領域推出的最新產品。

We're supporting our expansion of Coors into Hungary, and we're making headway in the beyond beer space with S Sports, Pepem and Wild Cider, which we're making available in a number of our Central and Eastern European markets, Serbia, Bulgaria, Montenegro and Croatia. So seeing some of the same macroeconomic issues, but we're confident in our plans.

我們正在支持 Coors 在匈牙利的擴張，並且我們正在透過 S Sports、Pepem 和 Wild Cider 在啤酒以外的領域取得進展，這些產品正在我們的一些中歐和東歐市場、塞爾維亞、保加利亞、黑山和克羅埃西亞銷售。儘管看到了一些相同的宏觀經濟問題，但我們對我們的計劃充滿信心。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

And congrats to you, Gavin, and I hope you don't forget us when we come to [Cagani] for those next year. So in your response before, you said you're assuming the industry will not going to be in the shape or form right now with the mid-single decline -- mid-single-digit decline in the US. I was hoping if you can -- I think you articulated in a few questions before how do you feel about the pace of your market share and all of that.

恭喜你，加文，我希望明年我們來 [Cagani] 時你不要忘記我們。因此，在您之前的回答中，您說您假設該行業目前不會出現美國中等個位數下降的狀況。我希望你能——我想你之前已經明確提出過幾個問題，你對你的市場份額增長速度以及所有這些有什麼看法。

But I was hoping to see if you can comment on your price [expectory]. You talked about Banquet like doing very well, but I'm thinking of Coors Light in some of your core more kind of like, I should say, still US is still domestic premium, but inter-level point, how you're trying to meet the consumer where they are? And if you're seeing that shift?

但我希望看看你能否評論一下你的價格[祛痰]您談到 Banquet 做得很好，但我認為 Coors Light 在您的一些核心業務中更像是，我應該說，美國仍然是國內高端市場，但從跨級別的角度來看，您如何嘗試滿足消費者的需求？如果您看到了這種轉變？

And then related to that, you spoke about Blue Moon that we set on Blue Moon's pack. So I was hoping to see when we should be seeing that normalize and how you were seeing in general? And to a question -- Bonnie asked a question about April that it seems like things are better, but I was hoping to see if you can also add that on in terms of how the exit rate and the current trends are?

然後與此相關，您談到了我們在 Blue Moon 包上設置的 Blue Moon。所以我希望看到我們什麼時候能夠看到這種正常化以及您整體上是如何看待的？對於一個問題——邦妮問了一個關於四月份的問題，似乎情況有所好轉，但我希望看看你是否也可以補充一下退出率和當前趨勢的情況？

Thanks, Andrea. Lot's in that question. So I mean from a share point of view, the core share retention has been across all three of our core brands, Miller Lite, Coors Light and Coors Banquet. Coors Banquet has accelerated actually well beyond the levels of share that we gained in Q2 of '23. And Coors Light and Miller Lite have held the large portion of the share that we gained there as well.

謝謝，安德里亞。這個問題包含很多內容。所以我的意思是，從份額的角度來看，核心份額保留涵蓋了我們所有的三個核心品牌，即 Miller Lite、Coors Light 和 Coors Banquet。Coors Banquet 的成長速度實際上遠遠超過了我們在 2023 年第二季度獲得的份額水準。而 Coors Light 和 Miller Lite 也佔據了我們在那裡獲得的大部分份額。

So -- just to give you a dimension of that, Miller Lite was at sort of 6.1, 6.2 level in Q1 of '23 and that jumped up to about 6.9, and it's operating at about 6.8. So it's held I don't -- I'm not going to do the mental arithmetic, but that's more than 90% of what we gained. So again, I'm very pleased with the retention on our US core brands. Our brands have come a long way since 2022, and we're continuing to support them.

所以 - 只是為了給你一個大概的印象，Miller Lite 在 2023 年第一季的水平大約是 6.1、6.2，然後躍升至約 6.9，目前的運營水平約為 6.8。因此我認為我不會——我不會做心算，但這超過了我們所獲得的 90%。因此，我對我們的美國核心品牌的保留感到非常高興。自 2022 年以來，我們的品牌已經取得了長足的進步，我們將繼續為它們提供支援。

As far as Blue Moon is concerned, look, it remains a big important brand for us. It's a top priority for us in about premium, and we're committed to turning that brand around. In the third and the fourth quarter, the Blue Moon family of brands did see an improvement in share of industry, total industry, we actually gained share in the craft space. And that trend continued into January and February of this year.

就藍月而言，它對我們來說仍然是一個重要的品牌。對我們來說，高端產品是重中之重，我們致力於扭轉品牌的頹勢。在第三季度和第四季度，藍月品牌系列的行業份額、整個行業的份額確實有所提高，我們實際上在精釀啤酒領域獲得了份額。這一趨勢一直持續到今年 1 月和 2 月。

But as I said, I think earlier, March was challenged for us, and that brought our Q1 family of brands performance down in the first quarter, and that's because we implemented a tight adjustment. We knew it would have a temporary performance impact, but it certainly aligns with the consumer preferences, and it provides us a very meaningful benefit from a supply chain efficiency point of view and a cost of goods sold point of view. So a temporary bump with significant benefits coming from a profitability point of view.

但正如我之前所說，我認為三月對我們來說是一個挑戰，這導致我們第一季的品牌系列業績下滑，這是因為我們實施了嚴格的調整。我們知道這會對性能產生暫時的影響，但它肯定符合消費者的偏好，並且從供應鏈效率的角度和銷售成本的角度來說，它給我們帶來了非常有意義的利益。因此，從獲利能力的角度來看，這只是暫時的成長，但卻能帶來顯著的效益。

Beyond the core Blue Moon brand, we have seen some positive momentum behind our new innovations, which are continuing to bring new drinkers into the brand. As an example, Blue Moon in the first -- premium non-alc in the first quarter was up almost 90% per [secena] and where we expect to gain a lot of new distribution for this brand in the spring resets.

除了核心的藍月品牌之外，我們還看到了新創新背後的一些積極勢頭，這些創新正在繼續為該品牌帶來新的飲酒者。舉例來說，第一季藍月 (Blue Moon) 優質無酒精飲料的銷量上漲了近 90%，我們預計該品牌將在春季獲得大量新分銷。

And we're also launching a new 8% and higher ABV product, particularly focused on the C stores. And again, our expectation is we're going to gain some very nice distribution for this brand in the spring reset. So when you add to that, the vast majority of our marketing spend on this brand will take place between April and December. I think it's setting up well, but we've got lots of work supposed to do on the Blue Moon family.

我們還將推出一款酒精度為 8% 及以上的新產品，特別針對 C 類商店。再次強調，我們的期望是，我們將在春季重置時為該品牌獲得一些非常好的分銷。因此，如果將這一點考慮進去，我們在該品牌上的絕大部分行銷支出將集中在 4 月至 12 月之間。我認為一切準備就緒，但我們還有很多工作要做，以服務 Blue Moon 家族。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Gavin, congratulations. It's been a fun and long road through many different versions of what the company looks like today. If you could talk a little bit about pricing. A lot of what you're talking about from a macro perspective, we're also hearing from many others. And we're maybe getting the earliest signs of maybe increased promotional activity or increased focus on value in some way. And so just curious how you're thinking about the absolute price points of your various brands versus where the sort of macro environment might be heading?

加文，恭喜你。公司經歷了許多不同的版本，形成了今天的面貌，這是一條有趣而漫長的道路。如果您可以稍微談一下定價問題。您從宏觀角度談論的許多內容，我們也從許多其他人那裡聽到了。我們可能已經看到了促銷活動增加或以某種方式更加註重價值的最早跡象。所以我很好奇，您如何看待各個品牌的絕對價格點以及宏觀環境的走向？

Thanks, Kaumil. Look, from an overall consumer point of view, look, we have continued to see some value driving behavior, which we've talked about by channel or by pack. But from an overall promotional point of view, based on what we're seeing right now, we don't expect anything unusual from a promotion point of view.

謝謝，考米爾。從整體消費者的角度來看，我們繼續看到一些價值驅動行為，我們已經透過管道或包裝進行了討論。但從整體促銷的角度來看，根據我們目前看到的情況，我們預計不會有任何不尋常的情況。

It is very common to see heightened competition with additional activity as you head into summer and that eases up as you get into the shoulder months. We saw it in 2024, and again, I'm sure we'll see it in 2025. But as I said, nothing terribly unusual from our point of view.

進入夏季時，競爭會更加激烈，活動也會增多，這是很常見的現象，而進入平季時，競爭就會逐漸緩和。我們在 2024 年就見過它，我確信我們會在 2025 年再見到它。但正如我所說，從我們的角度來看，並沒有什麼特別不尋常的事。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

I know we've covered a lot of ground. I just wanted to just check in on the CapEx adjustment. Just anything you can share with us on what you won't be doing this year that you had originally planned?

我知道我們已經討論了很多內容。我只是想檢查一下資本支出調整。您能與我們分享一下您今年不會做原計劃的事情嗎？

Thanks, Lauren. Tracey, do you want to take it?

謝謝，勞倫。崔西，你想拿走它嗎？

I'll take that. Thanks, Lauren. So look, we're postponing certain projects that don't relate to significant cost savings or don't relate to critical growth initiatives. So we'll continue to invest around health and safety, which is always our number 1 and continue to put our spend behind those projects, and we've got a whole host of projects that do drive cost savings and growth initiatives. So we're prioritizing those. The ones that we are postponing are ones that don't have a significant impact on our performance.

我會接受的。謝謝，勞倫。所以，我們正在推遲某些與大幅成本節約無關或與關鍵成長計畫無關的項目。因此，我們將繼續在健康和安全方面進行投資，這始終是我們的首要任務，並將繼續將我們的支出投入到這些項目上，而且我們有大量的項目可以推動成本節約和成長計劃。所以我們優先考慮這些。我們推遲的那些不會對我們的業績產生重大影響。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可拉弗里、派珀桑德勒。

Gavin, congrats as well. Just wanted to look at Americas price/mix and understand that a little bit better. It obviously has the mix benefit from the less contract brewing, but it was a little bit below the lift in the last few quarters and a little bit behind where we would expect or had expected.

加文，也祝賀你。只是想看看美國的價格/組合併更好地理解這一點。顯然，由於合約減少，它具有混合優勢，但在過去幾個季度中，它的增幅略低於預期，也略低於我們的預期或曾經的預期。

Can you just give us a sense, I guess, maybe one, mechanically did the Fever-Tree costs come through the top line somehow? Is that a bit of a drag? Or any other ways to understand maybe what to expect going forward? Should it pick up a little bit? Is that about the right run rate for the year?

您能否告訴我們，我想，也許是從機械角度來說，Fever-Tree 的成本是否以某種方式體現在了頂線上？這是否有點麻煩？或者有其他方法可以了解未來的期望嗎？它應該回升一點嗎？這是今年正確的運行率嗎？

Thanks, Michael. To answer your Fever-Tree question directly, the incremental costs because of the distributor transition go through MG&A line, so they don't come through the top line from a cost point of view and the cost that we'll push through in the second quarter as we finalize that, we'll also go through the MG&A line.

謝謝，麥可。直接回答您關於 Fever-Tree 的問題，由於經銷商轉型而產生的增量成本會通過 MG&A 線，因此從成本角度來看，這些成本不會透過頂線產生，而當我們最終確定第二季度的成本時，我們也會透過 MG&A 線產生。

The way that it works going forward, though, is that the credit will actually come through in net sales revenue, which is the way technical accounting works. So the debit is going through MG&A and the credit, which we will get back over the next three years will go through the top line.

不過，未來的運作方式是，信用實際上將體現在淨銷售收入中，這是技術會計的運作方式。因此，借方將透過 MG&A 進行，而我們將在未來三年內收回的貸方將透過頂線進行。

From an NSR per hectoliter basis, from a North America point of view, that was up on a per hectoliter basis about 4.8%. Pricing sort of fill in that range that we see at about 1 to 2, but the majority of that game was in mix.

從北美的角度來看，以每百升 NSR 計算，這一數字上漲了約 4.8%。定價在某種程度上填補了我們所看到的大約 1 到 2 的範圍，但遊戲的大部分內容都是混合的。

And partly that's driven by other contract brewing volumes, particularly up in Canada, where we saw a very significant mix improvement. And then positive brand mix as we introduce Fever-Tree into our portfolio, which has only been there for a couple of months. So certainly, the mixed benefits that we're seeing right now, I would expect to continue all the way through the year.

部分原因是受到其他合約釀造量的推動，特別是在加拿大，我們看到了非常顯著的組合改善。然後，我們將 Fever-Tree 引入到我們的產品組合中，這才剛剛幾個月，這是一個積極的品牌組合。因此，我預計我們現在看到的混合效益將持續全年。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的凱文‧格蘭迪。

Gavin, I want to extend my congratulations as well. I'll ask a question on capital deployment. We've covered a lot of ground on the quarter. So you guys have done a tremendous job getting your debt leverage down through COVID, et cetera. So congrats on that.

加文，我也想向你表示祝賀。我會問一個關於資本配置的問題。本季我們已經取得了許多進展。因此，你們在 COVID 等疫情期間降低了債務槓桿率，並做出了巨大的貢獻。對此我表示祝賀。

The flip side as you pivot towards buyback, the stock has underperformed. It's under quite a bit of pressure today. What do you think the market is missing? What do you think the market underappreciates about the Molson Coors story? Number one.

另一方面，當你轉向回購時，股票表現不佳。今天壓力挺大的。您認為市場缺乏什麼？您認為市場低估了 Molson Coors 的哪些面向？第一。

And then number two, do you foresee a set of scenarios where you revisit the string of pearls approach to M&A where perhaps there's something bigger out there where you can diversify the portfolio away from mainstream beer, which has been a perpetual decline? So I appreciate that.

第二，您是否預見了一系列情景，在這些情景中，您會重新審視「珍珠鍊」併購方法，也許存在更大的機會，您可以將投資組合多樣化，不再局限於一直在下滑的主流啤酒？我很感激。

Thanks very much, Kevin. And look, you've hit on the ones -- I'm proud of a lot of things over the last six years, right? But the one I'm probably most proud of is how we've got our balance sheet into a really, really good place, and our debt ratio, as you rightly call out, is low. And our cash generation is very, very strong. And I think we've demonstrated that over the last six years. It remains one of, I think, the strongest benefits of our company and one of the most underappreciated and it certainly gives us flexibility to return cash to shareholders.

非常感謝，凱文。你看，你已經說到重點了——過去六年裡有很多事情讓我感到自豪，對吧？但我最引以為傲的是我們的資產負債表狀況非常好，而且正如您所說，我們的負債比率很低。我們的現金創造能力非常非常強。我認為我們在過去六年裡已經證明了這一點。我認為，它仍然是我們公司最大的優勢之一，也是最被低估的優勢之一，它確實讓我們能夠靈活地向股東返還現金。

I think potentially investors missed the strength of our core brands and what a tremendous job our sales and marketing teams have done to retain the share that we gained a couple of years ago. I think if you recall and go back and read some of the comments from those days, Kevin, you will find that most people expected us to give it all back. And the opposite has happened. We've actually kept almost all of it in and Coors Banquet is growing from strength to strength. So I think that is a missed area for folk outside of there.

我認為投資人可能忽略了我們核心品牌的實力，也忽略了我們的銷售和行銷團隊為維持幾年前獲得的份額所做的巨大工作。凱文，我想如果你回想一下並回顧當時的一些評論，你會發現大多數人都希望我們能夠歸還一切。但事實卻恰恰相反。事實上，我們幾乎保留了所有股份，而 Coors Banquet 的實力也在不斷增強。所以我認為這是外界人們忽略的一個領域。

We think that our string of pearls approach works really well. And I think we've also been clear now that debt ratio is where it is targeted under 2.5x, the size of those pearls can get a little bit bigger. And we've demonstrated that with Fever-Tree where we took a stake in the listed company in the UK for slightly under $100 million. And we bought the whole of the Fever-Tree US business.

我們認為我們的珍珠串方法確實非常有效。而且我認為我們現在也已經清楚，負債比率的目標是低於 2.5 倍，這些珍珠的尺寸可以變得更大一些。我們已經透過 Fever-Tree 證明了這一點，我們以略低於 1 億美元的價格收購了這家英國上市公司的股份。我們收購了 Fever-Tree 的整個美國業務。

I'm very excited about this partnership relationship that we have with Fever-Tree. It's very complementary to our portfolio. The distributors are very excited about it. And it's obviously two months, and two months, it doesn't a trend make, but very pleased with the way that, that brand has started in line with our -- actually slightly ahead of our business case. So feeling really good about that.

我對與 Fever-Tree 建立的合作關係感到非常興奮。它與我們的投資組合非常互補。經銷商們對此都非常興奮。顯然，這兩個月的時間並沒有形成趨勢，但我很高興看到該品牌已經開始與我們保持一致 - 實際上略微領先於我們的商業案例。所以對此感覺非常好。

But I think the most underappreciated thing about us, Kevin, is the strong generation of an ongoing generation of cash and how strong our balance sheet actually is.

但凱文，我認為我們最被低估的是持續強勁的現金產生能力以及我們資產負債表的強勁程度。

Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Eric Serotta。

Great. And congratulations again, Gavin. It's been a pleasure working with you and looking forward to the next six-, seven months. Most questions have been answered. But Gavin would love to circle back and get your perspective on midterm category growth through the lens of the various segments. Mexican imports, which have obviously been powering the beer category over the past decade have slowed lately. Clearly, some macro and demographic factors there.

偉大的。再次恭喜你，加文。很高興與您合作，並期待接下來的六、七個月。大多數問題都已得到解答。但加文 (Gavin) 很樂意回過頭來，從各個細分市場的視角來了解您對中期類別成長的看法。過去十年來，墨西哥進口啤酒一直推動著啤酒產業的成長，但最近成長速度有所放緩。顯然，這其中存在一些宏觀和人口因素。

But just wondering if you could provide some perspective on how you're thinking of category growth over a three- to five-year time frame. If we have a much larger base -- since we have a much larger base for imports today, maybe it will grow a little bit slower. At the same time, domestic super premiums are a lot larger. And then obviously, your perspective on premium and premium light?

但我只是想知道您是否可以提供一些關於您如何看待三到五年內類別成長的觀點。如果我們擁有更大的基數——因為我們今天擁有更大的進口基數，所以成長速度可能會慢一些。同時，國內超級保險的保費也高出許多。那麼顯然，您對高端和高端輕型有何看法？

Thanks, Eric. Look, as it relates to our portfolio, again, as I said, I'm very pleased with where we are from a core brands point of view. And we've acknowledged that we've got work to do in our both premium space. And given the plans that we've got, which I feel very good about and the fact that the pressure is now coming in April and beyond behind those plans, whether it's Peroni, whether it's the Blue Moon family, whether it's Miller Lite up in Canada, which operates in the above premium space or Madri, a number of markets, I feel -- and we believe in our goal to get to a third of our net sales revenue in the above-premium space.

謝謝，埃里克。就我們的產品組合而言，正如我所說，從核心品牌的角度來看，我對我們的現狀感到非常滿意。我們也承認，我們在高端領域還有很多工作要做。考慮到我們現有的計劃，我對此感到非常滿意，考慮到 4 月份及以後這些計劃面臨的壓力，無論是 Peroni、Blue Moon 系列，還是在加拿大運營的 Miller Lite（它們都涉足高端以上市場）或 Madri 等多個市場，我都認為 — — 我們相信我們的目標是將淨銷售收入的三分之一貢獻於高端以上市場。

From an overall category point of view, I'm not sure there's much I can add to what I've already said Eric. I mean it was obviously a tough first quarter, which I don't think anybody predicted. And we do expect that to normalize back to where it's sort of historically been over the last few years. Precise timing of that is obviously difficult to predict.

從整體類別的角度來看，我不確定我還能補充多少我已經說過的內容，艾瑞克。我的意思是，第一季顯然很艱難，我認為沒有人預料到。我們確實希望這種情況能夠恢復到過去幾年的歷史水準。顯然，這過程的具體時間很難預測。

As I said earlier, April, has shown some signs of improvement from an industry point of view, but it's just one four-week read and we need to be cautious about that until we see it manifest itself in a more stable trend going forward.

正如我之前所說，從行業角度來看，四月份已經顯示出一些改善的跡象，但這只是四周的讀數，我們需要對此保持謹慎，直到我們看到它在未來呈現更穩定的趨勢。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

I just wanted to see, Tracey, if you could put a finer point on how your forecast for North America has changed for the next few quarters? To what extent have you lowered your sales expectations for second, third and fourth?

崔西，我只是想看看，你能否更詳細地說明一下你對未來幾季北美市場的預測有何變化？你們在多大程度上降低了第二、第三和第四輛的銷售預期？

Yes. Thanks, Robert. So look, we don't give quarterly guidance. But what we can say is the first quarter was much softer from an industry point of view, then I think what everyone had anticipated. And Gavin spoke about the CPG companies, in general, talking similar around macroeconomic impact, et cetera. But just in terms of going forward, some of the drivers of our guidance around top line is the net price increases back to the sort of 1% to 2% range that we've seen historically in North America in terms of our other markets more in line with inflation.

是的。謝謝，羅伯特。所以，我們不提供季度指引。但我們可以說，從行業角度來看，第一季的表現要疲軟得多，我想這比大家預期的要好得多。加文 (Gavin) 總體上談到了 CPG 公司，談論了類似的宏觀經濟影響等等。但就未來而言，我們對營收預期的一些驅動因素是淨價格漲幅回到我們歷史上在北美看到的 1% 到 2% 的區間，而我們的其他市場則更符合通貨膨脹的趨勢。

From a shipment point of view, we expect the recovery to sort of STRs and STWs to sort of get more aligned mostly in Q3. So not in Q2, where we expect similar performance from the exit of our contract brewing arrangement as we saw in Q1.

從出貨量的角度來看，我們預計 STR 和 STW 的復甦將在第三季變得更加一致。因此，在第二季度，我們預計合約釀造安排退出後的表現將與第一季類似。

And then top line also driven by our premiumization, innovation and then some of the partnerships that we've spoken about, for example, Fever-Tree which has a positive impact on our top line as well going forward.

然後，營收也受到我們的高端化、創新以及我們談到的一些合作夥伴關係的推動，例如 Fever-Tree，這對我們未來的營收也產生了積極的影響。

Although there is a sort of some cycling of our smaller regional craft breweries that we divested in the third quarter. But I would say that, that would be the sort of main drivers of the first half of the year versus the second half of the year from a top line point of view.

儘管我們在第三季剝離的小型區域精釀啤酒廠存在一定程度的循環。但我想說，從營收角度來看，這將是上半年與下半年的主要動力。

Thank you. And with that, we have no further questions. So this concludes today's call. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。至此，我們沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家今天加入我們。現在您可以斷開線路了。