TransAlta Corp (TAC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Julie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the TransAlta Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫朱莉，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 TransAlta Corporation 第四季度和 2022 年全年業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Ms. Valentini, you may begin your conference.

Valentini 女士，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to TransAlta's fourth quarter and full year 2022 conference call. With me today are John Kousinioris, President and Chief Executive Officer; Todd Stack, EVP Finance and Chief Financial Officer; and Kerry O'Reilly Wilks, EVP, Legal, Commercial and External Affairs.

謝謝你，朱莉。大家早上好，歡迎來到 TransAlta 的第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 John Kousinioris； Todd Stack，財務執行副總裁兼首席財務官；以及法律、商業和對外事務執行副總裁 Kerry O'Reilly Wilks。

Today's call is being webcast and I invite those listening on the phone lines to view the supporting slides that are posted on our website. A replay of the call will be available later today, and the transcript will also be posted shortly thereafter. All the information provided during this conference call is subject to the forward-looking statement qualification set out here on Slide 2, which is also detailed further in our MD&A and incorporated in full for the purposes of today's call. All amounts referenced during the call are in Canadian currency unless otherwise noted.

今天的電話會議正在網絡廣播中，我邀請那些在電話線上收聽的人觀看我們網站上發布的支持幻燈片。今天晚些時候將提供通話重播，隨後不久也會發布通話記錄。本次電話會議期間提供的所有信息均受幻燈片 2 中列出的前瞻性聲明的限制，我們的 MD&A 中也對此進行了進一步詳細說明，並為今天的電話會議將其完整納入。除非另有說明，否則通話期間提及的所有金額均以加元表示。

The non-IFRS terminology used, including adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are also reconciled in the MD&A for your reference. On today's call, John and Todd will provide an overview of the results for 2022. After these remarks, we will open the call for questions.

使用的非 IFRS 術語，包括調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流也在 MD&A 中進行了核對，供您參考。在今天的電話會議上，約翰和托德將概述 2022 年的結果。在這些評論之後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn the call over to John.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Chiara. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year results call for 2022. As part of our commitment towards reconciliation, I want to begin by acknowledging that TransAlta's head office, where we are today, is located in the traditional territories of the Niitsitapi, the people of the Treaty 7 Region in Southern Alberta, which includes the Siksika, the Piikani, the Kainai, the Tsuut'ina and the Stoney-Nakoda First Nations, as well as the home of Metis Nation Region 3.

謝謝你，基婭拉。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第四季度和全年業績電話會議。作為我們對和解承諾的一部分，我首先要承認我們今天所在的 TransAlta 總部位於傳統的Niitsitapi 的領土，南艾伯塔省第 7 條條約地區的人民，其中包括 Siksika、Piikani、Kainai、Tsuut'ina 和 Stoney-Nakoda 第一民族，以及第 3 區 Metis 民族的家園。

TransAlta had an exceptional 2022. During the year, we successfully navigated market challenges and achieved results that exceeded the top end of our updated guidance and expectations for the year. We delivered $1.63 billion of adjusted EBITDA, a 27% increase over our 2021 results and free cash flow of $961 million or $3.55 per share, a 64% increase over 2021 results on a per share basis. It was a remarkable result for the company and our shareholders, where all fleets and businesses -- with all fleets and business segments contributing to the results with strong performances.

TransAlta 在 2022 年取得了非凡的成就。在這一年中，我們成功應對了市場挑戰，取得的成果超出了我們今年最新指導和預期的上限。我們實現了 16.3 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，比 2021 年的業績增長 27%，自由現金流為 9.61 億美元或每股 3.55 美元，比 2021 年的每股業績增長 64%。對於公司和我們的股東來說，這是一個了不起的結果，所有車隊和業務——所有車隊和業務部門都以強勁的表現為業績做出了貢獻。

Availability was excellent across our facilities at 90% compared to 86.6% in 2021. And thanks to the strong operational performance of our fleet, we were able to successfully supply generation when the market needed it most, benefiting from the strong power prices experienced in Alberta during the year, particularly during periods of market tightness. Our results demonstrate the value of our strategically diversified fleet in Alberta. We continue to believe that we have the right fleet to effectively supply our customers and realize value for our shareholders.

我們設施的可用性非常好，為 90%，而 2021 年為 86.6%。而且由於我們機隊的強大運營性能，我們能夠在市場最需要的時候成功供應發電，這得益於艾伯塔省強勁的電價在這一年中，特別是在市場緊張的時期。我們的結果證明了我們在艾伯塔省的戰略多元化機隊的價值。我們仍然相信，我們擁有合適的機隊來有效地為我們的客戶提供服務並為我們的股東實現價值。

With our fast-ramping hydro and our converted gas assets, we can provide cost-effective reliability when the market needs it. Something we're also incredibly proud of was our safety performance throughout the year. We operated without a single lost time injury during the year across our global operations and delivered a total recordable injury frequency across the entire fleet of 0.39, an outstanding result and our best outcome ever. We continue to maintain a strong financial position with over $2 billion in liquidity and are well-positioned to deliver on our construction program. During the year, we secured a $400 million term facility with our banking syndicate and followed that up with a $400 million senior green bond offering in November, the proceeds of which were used to repay our expiring $400 million unsecured notes.

憑藉我們快速發展的水力發電和轉化後的天然氣資產，我們可以在市場需要時提供具有成本效益的可靠性。我們也非常自豪的是我們全年的安全表現。在這一年中，我們在全球運營中沒有發生一起失時工傷事故，整個機隊的可記錄工傷事故發生頻率為 0.39，這是一項出色的成績，也是我們有史以來最好的成績。我們繼續保持強勁的財務狀況，擁有超過 20 億美元的流動資金，並有能力實施我們的建設計劃。在這一年中，我們通過銀行財團獲得了 4 億美元的定期融資，隨後在 11 月發行了 4 億美元的高級綠色債券，其收益用於償還我們即將到期的 4 億美元無抵押票據。

Starting in January, our shareholders received a 10% increase to their common share dividend, raising it to an annualized $0.22 per share, representing our fourth consecutive annual increase. On top of that, we returned $54 million to shareholders over the year in the form of share buybacks, which we expect to continue. On the growth side, our development team secured 200 megawatts of renewables growth with the announcement of the Horizon Hill Wind Project with Meta as well as the Mount Keith transmission expansion project in Western Australia with BHP. We've made excellent progress in advancing the rehabilitation of our Kent Hills facility.

從 1 月開始，我們股東的普通股股息增加了 10%，將其提高到年化每股 0.22 美元，這是我們連續第四年增加。最重要的是，我們在過去一年中以股票回購的形式向股東返還了 5400 萬美元，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。在增長方面，我們的開發團隊通過宣布與 Meta 合作的地平線山風能項目以及與必和必拓在西澳大利亞的基思山輸電擴建項目，確保了 200 兆瓦的可再生能源增長。我們在推進肯特山設施的修復方面取得了巨大進展。

All towers are now fully disassembled, 21 foundations have been reported, and our first tower has been fully reassembled. Northern Goldfields Solar, Mount Keith transmission, Garden Plain Wind, Horizon Hill Wind and White Rock Wind are all under construction and progressing well. Overall, we continue to make progress on increasing our EBITDA contribution from renewables assets with the addition of the Windrise and North Carolina Solar facilities last year. EBITDA from our renewables and storage assets reached 54% in 2022, another step towards our 70% target by the end of 2025.

現在所有塔樓都已完全拆卸，據報告有 21 個地基，我們的第一座塔樓已完全重新組裝。 Northern Goldfields Solar、Mount Keith transmission、Garden Plain Wind、Horizon Hill Wind 和 White Rock Wind 都在建設中，進展順利。總體而言，隨著去年增加 Windrise 和 North Carolina Solar 設施，我們在增加可再生能源資產的 EBITDA 貢獻方面繼續取得進展。我們的可再生能源和儲能資產的 EBITDA 在 2022 年達到 54%，這是朝著我們到 2025 年底達到 70% 的目標又邁進了一步。

And as we've advanced our clean electricity growth plan, our ESG ratings have improved with MSCI upgrading us from BBB to A and CDP upgrading us from B to A-. Today, we're pleased to announce that we've increased our decarbonization ambitions by adopting a net 0 by 2045 target. In 2022, we were able to achieve carbon emissions reductions of an additional 2.3 million tonnes or 18% over 2021 levels. This now brings our total emissions reductions to 68% or 22 million tonnes since 2015, a significant achievement.

隨著我們推進清潔電力增長計劃，我們的 ESG 評級也有所提高，MSCI 將我們從 BBB 升級為 A，CDP 將我們從 B 升級為 A-。今天，我們很高興地宣布，我們已經通過採用到 2045 年淨零排放的目標來提高我們的脫碳目標。到 2022 年，我們能夠在 2021 年的基礎上再減少 230 萬噸碳排放，即減少 18%。這使我們自 2015 年以來的總排放量減少了 68% 或 2200 萬噸，這是一項重大成就。

As a result of our emissions reductions journey, the carbon intensity for our converted natural gas units is approximately 57% lower than coal-fired generation, and we've reduced our carbon compliance costs by 45% from $16 per megawatt hour in 2020 and 2021 to $9 per megawatt hour in 2022, notwithstanding the increase in carbon pricing during that period. The cash cost of carbon compliance for our company has fallen from $178 million in 2021 to $78 million in 2022. We are committed to maintaining a leadership position in climate change and contributing to a net 0 future. Our growth strategy, which is focused on renewable and storage projects is in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius.

由於我們的減排之旅，我們轉換後的天然氣機組的碳強度比燃煤發電低約 57%，並且我們已將 2020 年和 2021 年的碳合規成本從每兆瓦時 16 美元降低了 45%到 2022 年每兆瓦時 9 美元，儘管在此期間碳定價有所增加。我們公司碳合規的現金成本已從 2021 年的 1.78 億美元下降到 2022 年的 7800 萬美元。我們致力於在氣候變化方面保持領先地位，並為實現淨零未來做出貢獻。我們以可再生能源和儲能項目為重點的增長戰略符合《巴黎協定》將全球變暖限制在 1.5 攝氏度以內的目標。

We made great strides in expanding our pipeline for growth in 2022. We added almost 2 gigawatts to our renewable development pipeline across Canada, the United States and Australia, providing great progress towards our longer-term goal of having 5 gigawatts of projects in the pipeline. And we recently announced the acquisition of a 50% interest in a 320-megawatt Tent Mountain pumped hydro energy storage project. This project provides us with a unique opportunity to supply 15 hours of long duration and 0 emission energy storage capabilities for the Alberta market, helping to address the increasing intermittency that will be experienced with the growth of renewable generation in the province.

我們在擴大 2022 年增長管道方面取得了長足進步。我們在加拿大、美國和澳大利亞的可再生能源開發管道中增加了近 2 吉瓦，為實現我們在管道中擁有 5 吉瓦項目的長期目標提供了巨大進展.我們最近宣布收購 320 兆瓦帳篷山抽水蓄能項目 50% 的權益。該項目為我們提供了一個獨特的機會，可以為艾伯塔省市場提供 15 小時的長持續時間和零排放儲能能力，幫助解決隨著該省可再生能源發電的增長而出現的間歇性增加的問題。

Within our development pipeline, we currently have 374 megawatts of advanced stage generation and transmission projects that we are advancing towards final investment decisions in the upcoming quarters, representing additional growth of approximately $600 million. These include our 180 megawatt WaterCharger Battery Storage Project in Alberta, our 100 megawatt Tempest Wind Project in Alberta and our 94 megawatt Southern Cross capacity and transmission expansion projects in Western Australia. Demand for renewables remains strong across all of our operating regions, and we see opportunities for growth in our markets.

在我們的開發管道中，我們目前擁有 374 兆瓦的高級發電和輸電項目，我們正在推進這些項目以在未來幾個季度做出最終投資決策，這意味著額外增長約 6 億美元。其中包括我們在艾伯塔省的 180 兆瓦 WaterCharger 電池儲能項目、我們在艾伯塔省的 100 兆瓦 Tempest 風能項目以及我們在西澳大利亞的 94 兆瓦南十字星容量和輸電擴建項目。我們所有運營地區對可再生能源的需求依然強勁，我們看到了市場增長的機會。

For 2023, we're targeting to reach final investment decisions on 500 megawatts of growth. We also have a goal of adding another 1,500 megawatts of new sites to our pipeline during the year to ensure our growth in the longer term. As we look ahead to advance our development pipeline, we are seeing inflationary and supply pressures mounting with associated impacts on some of our development opportunities. We've seen significant increases in turbine supply pricing and raw materials are experiencing significant price inflation. We estimate that current build costs for new assets have increased by almost 40% compared to projects that were initiated a year ago in the current environment.

到 2023 年，我們的目標是達成 500 兆瓦增長的最終投資決策。我們還有一個目標，即在年內為我們的管道增加 1,500 兆瓦的新站點，以確保我們的長期增長。在我們展望未來推進我們的開發管道時，我們看到通貨膨脹和供應壓力越來越大，對我們的一些開發機會產生了相關影響。我們已經看到渦輪機供應價格大幅上漲，原材料價格大幅上漲。我們估計，與一年前在當前環境下啟動的項目相比，新資產的當前構建成本增加了近 40%。

As a consequence, in December, we increased our capital target from $3 billion to $3.6 billion. However, despite the increases in capital costs for projects, we're seeing continued robust demand for renewable energy as corporate and government sustainability commitments remain firm. In tandem with the increase in capital costs, we have adjusted upwards our EBITDA target from $250 million to $315 million as we have seen PPA prices respond favorably to the supply and input cost pressures. We expect returns to remain intact for our shareholders. We also expect the recent announcements regarding the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. and the Fall Economic Statement in Canada to be positive for our industry and TransAlta and will continue to drive renewable energy demand in both regions.

因此，我們在 12 月將資本目標從 30 億美元提高到 36 億美元。然而，儘管項目的資本成本有所增加，但由於企業和政府的可持續發展承諾依然堅定，我們看到對可再生能源的需求持續強勁。隨著資本成本的增加，我們將 EBITDA 目標從 2.5 億美元上調至 3.15 億美元，因為我們看到 PPA 價格對供應和投入成本壓力做出了有利反應。我們預計股東的回報將保持不變。我們還預計最近有關美國通貨膨脹減少法案和加拿大秋季經濟聲明的公告將對我們的行業和 TransAlta 產生積極影響，並將繼續推動這兩個地區的可再生能源需求。

To date, we've secured 800 megawatts of growth projects across Canada, the U.S. and Australia, representing 40% of our 2 gigawatt target by 2025. These projects will contribute approximately $145 million in contracted EBITDA once fully operational or approximately 47% of our 5-year incremental annual EBITDA target of $315 million. As we carry out our growth focus, we're investing in our development team to broaden our capabilities as a developer of choice and to expand, advance and convert our development pipeline. We remain confident in our ability to deliver on the remainder of our 2-gigawatt clean electricity growth plan.

迄今為止，我們已經在加拿大、美國和澳大利亞獲得了 800 兆瓦的增長項目，占我們到 2025 年 2 吉瓦目標的 40%。一旦全面投入運營，這些項目將貢獻約 1.45 億美元的合同 EBITDA 或約 47% 5 年增量年度 EBITDA 目標為 3.15 億美元。在我們實現增長重點的同時，我們正在投資於我們的開發團隊，以擴大我們作為首選開發人員的能力，並擴展、推進和轉換我們的開發管道。我們對實現 2 吉瓦清潔電力增長計劃剩餘部分的能力充滿信心。

Looking forward to 2023, we announced our outlook in December, advising that we expect the company to generate adjusted EBITDA between $1.2 billion to $1.32 billion and free cash flow between $560 million to $660 million or $2.07 to $2.45 (sic) [$2.44] on a per share basis. Relative to 2022, we expect adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow to be impacted by 3 principal factors, including: first, strong merchant pricing levels continuing in Alberta, although at a lower target price range than 2022. Based on our fundamental market forecast, we expect the Alberta spot price to be between $105 and $135 per megawatt hour. This lower price expectation is driven by normalized weather expectations and the addition of new wind and solar supply, which will be partially offset by lower fuel costs due to favorable natural gas hedges.

展望 2023 年，我們在 12 月宣布了我們的展望，建議我們預計公司將在每股基礎。相對於 2022 年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流將受到 3 個主要因素的影響，包括：首先，艾伯塔省的商家定價水平持續強勁，儘管目標價格範圍低於 2022 年。根據我們的基本市場預測，我們預計艾伯塔省的現貨價格將在每兆瓦時 105 至 135 美元之間。這種較低的價格預期是由正常的天氣預期和新的風能和太陽能供應的增加所驅動的，這將部分被由於有利的天然氣對沖而導致的燃料成本降低所抵消。

Second, contributions from our new projects, including Garden Plain, White Rock, Horizon Hill, Northern Goldfields Solar and Mount Keith transmission. And third, contributions from our rehabilitated wind turbines at our Kent Hills facilities beginning in the first half of 2023, with a full return to service in the second half of 2023. Performance from the Energy Marketing segment is difficult to predict, and we've set our target around the midpoint gross margin expectation of $100 million.

其次，來自我們新項目的貢獻，包括 Garden Plain、White Rock、Horizon Hill、Northern Goldfields Solar 和 Mount Keith transmission。第三，從 2023 年上半年開始，我們在肯特山設施修復的風力渦輪機的貢獻將在 2023 年下半年全面恢復服務。能源營銷部門的業績很難預測，我們已經將我們的目標設定在 1 億美元的中點毛利率預期附近。

I'll now turn it over to Todd to take us through our financial results for the quarter and year.

我現在將其轉交給托德，讓我們了解本季度和本年度的財務業績。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll kick off my comments with a discussion on the Alberta portfolio. In Alberta, our hydro, gas and wind facilities are dispatched as a portfolio in order to benefit from baseload and peaking energy sales. During the fourth quarter, our Alberta fleet had excellent availability at 94%, which underpinned our exceptional results. When we revised our guidance at the end of Q3, our balance of year outlook was based on power prices averaging roughly $140 to $150 per megawatt hour. Ultimately, the spot price in the quarter settled significantly stronger at $214 and our merchant production was able to realize strong margins during this period.

謝謝約翰，大家早上好。我將通過對艾伯塔投資組合的討論來開始我的評論。在艾伯塔省，我們的水電、天然氣和風電設施作為組合進行調度，以便從基本負荷和峰值能源銷售中獲益。在第四季度，我們的艾伯塔機隊擁有 94% 的出色可用性，這鞏固了我們出色的業績。當我們在第三季度末修改我們的指導時，我們的年度餘額展望是基於平均每兆瓦時約 140 至 150 美元的電價。最終，本季度的現貨價格明顯走強，收於 214 美元，我們的商業生產在此期間實現了可觀的利潤率。

Looking at the full year 2022, the province experienced high electricity demand, driven by periods of strong weather-driven demand, unplanned outages at several generators and outages on the transmission time line, which reduced overall supply capacity. This resulted in strong pricing throughout the year, with the average pool price for 2022 settling at $162 per megawatt hour, stronger than the average price of $102 per megawatt hour in 2021. The ability of our hydro fleet to capture peak pricing was demonstrated throughout 2022, with realized energy prices of $197 per megawatt hour, which represented a 21% premium over the average spot price.

展望 2022 年全年，受天氣驅動需求旺盛、多台發電機意外停運和輸電線路停運的影響，全省電力需求旺盛，整體供應能力下降。這導致全年定價強勁，2022 年的平均聯營價格定為每兆瓦時 162 美元，高於 2021 年每兆瓦時 102 美元的平均價格。我們的水電船隊在整個 2022 年都展示了捕捉峰值定價的能力，實際能源價格為每兆瓦時 197 美元，比平均現貨價格高出 21%。

Similarly, our gas fleet also captured peak pricing throughout the year with realized merchant prices of $194 per megawatt hour, which also represents a 20% premium to the average spot price. Our merchant wind fleet realized an average price of $90 per megawatt hour and also benefited from the sale of renewable energy credits. Looking at 2023, we have approximately 6,800 gigawatt hours of Alberta gas generation hedged at an average price of $98 per megawatt hour and roughly 89% of our acquired natural gas volumes have been hedged at attractive prices. Our hedging activities provide downside protection and support for the Alberta gas fleet, and we continue to retain a significant open position in order to realize higher pricing during times of peak market demand.

同樣，我們的天然氣車隊也實現了全年的最高定價，實現的商業價格為每兆瓦時 194 美元，這也比平均現貨價格高出 20%。我們的商用風力發電機組實現了每兆瓦時 90 美元的平均價格，並且還受益於可再生能源配額的銷售。展望 2023 年，我們將以每兆瓦時 98 美元的平均價格對沖約 6,800 吉瓦時的阿爾伯塔天然氣發電量，並且我們收購的天然氣量中約 89% 已以具有吸引力的價格進行了對沖。我們的套期保值活動為艾伯塔天然氣船隊提供下行保護和支持，我們繼續保留重要的未平倉頭寸，以便在市場需求高峰期實現更高的定價。

Our financial results for the fourth quarter were exceptional. We generated over $500 million of adjusted EBITDA and over $300 million of free cash flow. Strong performance in the fourth quarter was led by the Gas segment, which benefited from strong production and strong realized pricing in Alberta. The combined gas fleet produced adjusted EBITDA of $264 million, a 2.5-fold improvement over last year. Adjusted EBITDA from the Hydro segment was $133 million, roughly double our results in 2021. And the Wind and Solar segment was up 21% quarter-over-quarter.

我們第四季度的財務業績非常出色。我們產生了超過 5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和超過 3 億美元的自由現金流。第四季度的強勁表現是由天然氣部門帶動的，該部門受益於艾伯塔省強勁的產量和強勁的實際定價。合併後的天然氣車隊產生的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.64 億美元，比去年增長 2.5 倍。水電部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.33 億美元，大約是我們 2021 年業績的兩倍。風能和太陽能部門環比增長 21%。

Energy Marketing continued its strong performance and in the quarter, delivered $63 million of EBITDA, which was significantly stronger than our target expectations. Looking at our full year results. Given the dynamics of our merchant portfolio, our performance was led by the hydro and gas fleets, where hydro delivered an overall increase of 64% in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, and the gas fleet delivered a 29% increase. The increase was driven by strong operations and our ability to supply during premium pricing in the Alberta market. Adjusted EBITDA from the Wind and Solar segment increased by 19% year-over-year due to higher production from the full year contributions from our Windrise and North Carolina asset additions and higher spot prices realized in Alberta.

Energy Marketing 繼續保持強勁表現，本季度實現了 6300 萬美元的 EBITDA，遠高於我們的目標預期。看看我們的全年業績。鑑於我們商業組合的動態，我們的業績由水力和天然氣船隊引領，其中水力船隊的調整後 EBITDA 同比總體增長 64%，天然氣船隊增長 29%。這一增長是由強勁的運營和我們在阿爾伯塔市場的溢價期間供應的能力推動的。風能和太陽能部門的調整後 EBITDA 同比增長 19%，原因是我們的 Windrise 和北卡羅來納州資產增加帶來的全年產量貢獻增加，以及艾伯塔省實現的現貨價格上漲。

Adjusted EBITDA from the Energy Transition segment decreased by $47 million year-over-year due to the announced retirements of Keephills Unit 1 and Sundance Unit 4. This was partially offset by strong performance of our Centralia facility, which improved by $30 million or 41% compared to last year. Our Energy Marketing segment also had another outstanding year, delivering $183 million in adjusted EBITDA, exceeding its historical average contribution. I would like to thank all of our employees for their performance in delivering one of the best years in TransAlta's history.

由於 Keephills 1 號機組和 Sundance 4 號機組宣布退役，能源轉型部門的調整後 EBITDA 同比減少 4700 萬美元。這部分被我們 Centralia 設施的強勁表現所抵消，該設施增加了 3000 萬美元或 41%與去年相比。我們的能源營銷部門也有另一個出色的一年，實現了 1.83 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，超過其歷史平均貢獻。我要感謝我們所有的員工，感謝他們在 TransAlta 歷史上表現最好的一年。

Slide 12 provides a historical snapshot of the hydro business. Since the expiry of the PPAs in 2020, shareholders have benefited materially from these assets, which generated over $300 million of EBITDA in 2021 and over $500 million in 2022. Although production varies quarterly, it remains consistent on an annual basis, providing long-term predictability. In addition, we continue to realize a premium on energy sales of roughly 20% over spot prices. Before I turn things back to John, I'll turn to TransAlta Renewables.

幻燈片 12 提供了水電業務的歷史快照。自 2020 年 PPA 到期以來，股東從這些資產中獲益匪淺，這些資產在 2021 年產生了超過 3 億美元的 EBITDA，在 2022 年產生了超過 5 億美元。雖然產量每季度變化，但每年保持一致，提供長期可預測性。此外，我們繼續實現比現貨價格高出約 20% 的能源銷售溢價。在我把事情轉回約翰之前，我會轉向 TransAlta Renewables。

As you know, our operating wind and solar contracted assets as well as the majority of our contracted gas assets are held within TransAlta Renewables and are fully consolidated in TransAlta's results. Despite the ongoing suspension of operation at Kent Hills, R&W's results for the year have demonstrated the resilience of the diversified fleet and delivered adjusted EBITDA within guidance expectations for 2022 at $487 million. This represents an increase of $24 million or 5% compared to 2021. The increase was a result of the incremental production from the addition of Windrise and North Carolina Solar.

如您所知，我們經營的風能和太陽能合同資產以及我們的大部分合同天然氣資產都在 TransAlta Renewables 內持有，並完全合併在 TransAlta 的業績中。儘管 Kent Hills 持續暫停運營，但 R&W 的年度業績證明了多元化機隊的彈性，並在 2022 年的指導預期內交付了 4.87 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。與 2021 年相比，這意味著增加了 2400 萬美元或 5%。增加的原因是增加了 Windrise 和 North Carolina Solar 的產量。

In December, we shared our 2023 outlook with investors that highlights cash flow expectations with a payout ratio of approximately 100%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $495 million and $535 million. This represents a modest increase over 2022 levels due to the Goldfields Solar and Mount Keith transmission projects coming online in 2022 and will also benefit from the return to service of Kent Hills 1 and 2 wind facilities in the second half of 2023. Cash available for distribution is expected to be between $230 million and $270 million, which is broadly in line with 2022 performance.

12 月，我們與投資者分享了我們的 2023 年展望，強調了派息率約為 100% 的現金流預期。調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 4.95 億美元至 5.35 億美元之間。由於 Goldfields Solar 和 Mount Keith 傳輸項目將於 2022 年上線，這比 2022 年的水平略有增加，並且還將受益於 2023 年下半年 Kent Hills 1 號和 2 號風力設施的恢復服務。可用於分配的現金預計在 2.3 億美元至 2.7 億美元之間，與 2022 年的表現大致一致。

The capital program for R&W in 2023 is fully funded and will be focused on the Kent Hills rehabilitation and the growth projects in Australia. In addition to our financial outlook for 2023, our December updated -- update provided additional clarity on the strategic focus at TransAlta Renewables. R&W will be principally focused on the sustainment of its dividend in 2023 and beyond. Growth opportunities will focus on organic expansions of our existing assets, of which we've identified over 700 megawatts of opportunities across our 3 operating regions.

2023 年 R&W 的資本計劃已獲得全額資助，將專注於肯特山的修復和澳大利亞的增長項目。除了我們 2023 年的財務展望外，我們 12 月更新的更新還進一步明確了 TransAlta Renewables 的戰略重點。 R&W 將主要專注於維持 2023 年及以後的股息。增長機會將集中在我們現有資產的有機擴張上，我們已經在我們的 3 個運營區域發現了超過 700 兆瓦的機會。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Todd. As I look at our strategic priorities for 2023, our primary goal is to continue delivering clean power solutions to and be the supplier of choice for customers that are focused on sustainable growth and decarbonization.

謝謝，托德。當我審視我們 2023 年的戰略重點時，我們的主要目標是繼續為關注可持續增長和脫碳的客戶提供清潔能源解決方案，並成為他們的首選供應商。

In 2023, we're focused on progressing the following key goals: reaching final investment decisions on the equivalent of 500 megawatts of additional clean energy projects across Canada, the United States and Australia and delivering $75 million to $100 million in incremental EBITDA; achieving COD on the Garden Plain Wind, Northern Goldfields Solar, White Rock Wind, Horizon Hill Wind and Mount Keith transmission projects, expanding our development pipeline by adding 1,500 megawatts of development sites with a focus on renewables and storage, completing the rehabilitation of Kent Hills Wind, advancing a new technology road map that aligns with our clean electricity growth plan, advancing the long-term contractiveness of our Alberta electricity portfolio, delivering permanent financing for our growth projects, achieving EBITDA and free cash flow within our guidance ranges and advancing our ESG objectives, which include furthering reclamation work at Highvale and Centralia, providing indigenous cultural awareness training to all our U.S. and Australian employees and achieving at least 40% female employees by 2030.

2023 年，我們將專注於實現以下關鍵目標：在加拿大、美國和澳大利亞等地完成相當於 500 兆瓦的額外清潔能源項目的最終投資決策，並實現 7500 萬至 1 億美元的增量 EBITDA；在 Garden Plain Wind、Northern Goldfields Solar、White Rock Wind、Horizon Hill Wind 和 Mount Keith 輸電項目上實現 COD，通過增加 1,500 兆瓦的開發場地擴大我們的開發管道，重點是可再生能源和存儲，完成肯特山的修復Wind，推進符合我們清潔電力增長計劃的新技術路線圖，推進我們阿爾伯塔電力組合的長期收縮性，為我們的增長項目提供永久性融資，在我們的指導範圍內實現 EBITDA 和自由現金流，並推進我們的ESG 目標，其中包括進一步推進 Highvale 和 Centralia 的填海工程，為我們所有的美國和澳大利亞員工提供本土文化意識培訓，並在 2030 年之前實現至少 40% 的女性員工。

I'd like to close by highlighting what I think makes TransAlta a highly attractive investment and a great value opportunity. We are pursuing a path that will reposition the company towards contracted renewable generation, minimize our exposure to regulatory and carbon risk and diversify our merchant position in Alberta. We laid out a plan with a clear focus for capitalizing on cash flow generation from our unique legacy fleet in both Alberta and at Centralia and reinvesting those cash flows towards the expansion and diversification of our contracted renewables to drive shareholder value.

最後，我想強調一下我認為 TransAlta 是一項極具吸引力的投資和巨大的價值機會的原因。我們正在尋求一條道路，將公司重新定位為合同可再生能源發電，最大限度地減少我們面臨的監管和碳風險，並使我們在艾伯塔省的商業地位多樣化。我們制定了一項計劃，明確重點是利用我們在艾伯塔省和森特勒利亞的獨特遺留車隊產生的現金流，並將這些現金流再投資於我們承包可再生能源的擴張和多樣化，以推動股東價值。

I'm pleased to say that the legacy facilities, together with our energy marketing business are performing well and positioning us to effectively fund our transition towards contracted renewables growth. Second, we're a clean electricity leader with a focus on tangible greenhouse gas emissions reductions. We've reduced our carbon emissions by 68% and are on track to achieve a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of 75% by 2026 from 2015 levels. Our Board and Management have also committed to a net 0 by 2045 target for our global operations.

我很高興地說，遺留設施以及我們的能源營銷業務表現良好，並使我們能夠有效地為我們向合同可再生能源增長的過渡提供資金。其次，我們是清潔電力的領導者，專注於有形的溫室氣體減排。我們已經將碳排放量減少了 68%，並且有望實現到 2026 年在 2015 年的基礎上減少 75% 的溫室氣體排放量目標。我們的董事會和管理層還承諾到 2045 年實現我們全球運營的淨零目標。

Third, we have an extensive and diversified set of growth opportunities with TransAlta Renewables as our primary growth vehicle. And fourth, our company has a sound financial foundation. Our balance sheet is strong and we have ample liquidity to pursue our growth. Finally, our people. Our people are our greatest asset and I want to thank all our employees and contractors for the work that they have done to deliver our exceptional results this year. Our strategy is on track and delivering consistent with our expectations, our vision of being a customer-centered leader in clean electricity committed to a sustainable future remains firm.

第三，我們擁有廣泛而多元化的增長機會，TransAlta Renewables 是我們的主要增長工具。第四，我們公司有良好的財務基礎。我們的資產負債表強勁，我們有充足的流動性來追求我們的增長。最後，我們的人民。我們的員工是我們最大的資產，我要感謝我們所有的員工和承包商，感謝他們為我們今年取得的優異成績所做的工作。我們的戰略步入正軌並實現了我們的預期，我們成為致力於可持續未來的以客戶為中心的清潔電力領導者的願景仍然堅定。

TransAlta has had an exciting time in its evolution and we're well-positioned for the future as a leader in low-cost, reliable and clean electricity generation focused on serving and meeting the needs of our customers. Thank you. And I'll turn the call back over to Chiara.

TransAlta 在其發展過程中經歷了激動人心的時刻，我們在未來處於有利地位，成為專注於服務和滿足客戶需求的低成本、可靠和清潔發電領域的領導者。謝謝。我會把電話轉回 Chiara。

Thank you, John. Julie, would you please open the call for questions from analysts and media.

謝謝你，約翰。朱莉，你能打開分析師和媒體提問的電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Mark Jarvi from CIBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 CIBC Capital Markets 的 Mark Jarvi。

John, you talked about inflation and changes in power prices offset that. So as it stands here today in terms of contracting environment, how would you say that is? Is there sort of a bid-ask spread between developers and buyers of power? Is it on the same page? And I guess when you think about the 2025 targets, is that something where you know that to have contracts in hand and maybe CODs don't really come until 2026 or just confidence on, I guess, the timelines for getting to the (inaudible) incremental EBITDA.

約翰，你談到了通貨膨脹，電價的變化抵消了這一點。因此，就今天的合同環境而言，您怎麼說？開發商和電力買家之間是否存在某種買賣價差？它在同一頁上嗎？我想當你考慮 2025 年的目標時，你是否知道手頭有合同，也許 COD 直到 2026 年才會真正到來，或者只是對實現（聽不清）的時間表有信心增量 EBITDA。

Yes. I think I maybe misspoke during the presentation. I think at one point, I said that one of our -- having TransAlta Renewables as our primary growth vehicle that actually isn't correct. It is TransAlta. In fact, that's the primary growth vehicle. And I think we made that clear in December -- in our press release that we did in December. In terms of getting back to your question, look, we have seen inflationary pressures creep into sort of the new projects that we're developing. We do think that our PPA counterparties, those individuals that we're speaking to really see that. They see it not just from us.

是的。我想我可能在演示過程中說錯了。我想有一次，我說過我們的一個 - 將 TransAlta 可再生能源作為我們的主要增長工具實際上是不正確的。它是 TransAlta。事實上，這是主要的增長工具。我認為我們在 12 月明確了這一點——在 12 月的新聞稿中。回到你的問題，看，我們已經看到通貨膨脹壓力蔓延到我們正在開發的一些新項目中。我們確實認為我們的 PPA 交易對手，我們正在與之交談的那些人真的看到了這一點。他們不僅從我們這裡看到了這一點。

I think they see it from all developers that are in the marketplace trying to provide projects to meet their needs. And our sense is that those PPA prices are calibrating upwards to be able to make sure that those returns remain where they need to be. In terms of TransAlta's approach, we're going to remain very disciplined from a capital allocation perspective. We're not going to rush into doing growth for the sake of doing growth. We do have hurdle rate expectations and continue to do pretty robust risk assessments on the projects that go forward. And it's not just about the contracted period. It's also about the merchant tail period once the contract rolls off. So that factors into the way that we're thinking about pricing and we'll proceed with projects when we're comfortable that we're getting appropriate risk-adjusted returns.

我認為他們從市場上所有試圖提供滿足他們需求的項目的開發商那裡看到了這一點。我們的感覺是，這些 PPA 價格正在向上校準，以確保這些回報保持在他們需要的水平。就 TransAlta 的方法而言，從資本配置的角度來看，我們將保持非常自律。我們不會為了增長而急於進行增長。我們確實有最低預期回報率，並繼續對未來的項目進行相當穩健的風險評估。這不僅僅是關於合同期限。一旦合同結束，這也與商家尾部期有關。因此，這會影響我們考慮定價的方式，當我們對獲得適當的風險調整回報感到滿意時，我們將繼續進行項目。

In terms of growth, I think our total approach on growth was actually landing transactions, getting to a determination to proceed with transactions in that 2 gigawatt pipeline by 2025. We're confident that we'll be able to do so. And I speak to our growth team, they have a pretty clear sense of which projects slot in where and at which timeframes in terms of the generation that we're looking to develop to be able to meet that target. And we've got a cushion given the increase in the pipeline that we have going forward.

在增長方面，我認為我們實現增長的總體方法實際上是著陸交易，並下定決心到 2025 年繼續進行 2 吉瓦管道的交易。我們有信心我們能夠做到這一點。我和我們的增長團隊談過，他們非常清楚哪些項目在我們希望開發的一代中的位置和時間框架內能夠實現該目標。鑑於我們前進的管道的增加，我們得到了緩衝。

Understood. And my second question, just on the Alberta power price year-to-date. It's been a little soft relative to the -- during the start of the year. So what's your updated view there? Is that just milder weather? Have you seen any other sort of elements on the supply-demand side that might contribute to where settlement prices are below the forward curve at the beginning of the year?

明白了。我的第二個問題是關於今年迄今為止的艾伯塔省電價。相對於今年年初，它有點疲軟。那麼你更新後的觀點是什麼？那隻是溫和的天氣嗎？您是否看到供需方面的任何其他因素可能導致年初結算價格低於遠期曲線？

Yes. I would say that the prices so far this year haven't been sort of wildly outside the ranges of what the fundamental forecasting was kind of expecting. I think for purposes of the guidance that we provided, we were looking at pricing in that $105 to $135 range over the course of the year. I think year-to-date pricing has been roughly in the $119 range, and I think month-to-date has been, I think, about $109, $110, although we've had quite a bit of weather here in the last little bit, which is lifting prices here as we move to the balance of the month.

是的。我想說的是，今年到目前為止的價格並沒有超出基本面預測的預期範圍。我認為，為了我們提供的指導，我們正在考慮全年定價在 105 美元到 135 美元之間。我認為今年迄今的價格大致在 119 美元的範圍內，我認為本月迄今的價格大約是 109 美元、110 美元，儘管最近一段時間我們這裡的天氣有點不好位，隨著我們進入本月的餘額，這裡的價格正在上漲。

I think the forward curve is in the mid-$130s right now, Mark.

馬克，我認為遠期曲線現在在 130 美元左右。

So that would be kind of at the upper end of what we thought things would go. I would say we've had some pretty benign weather so far at the front of the year in terms of -- compared to sort of a normalized price expectation. So I think the weather has been less cold than we would expect. And as a result, I think we've seen quite a bit of renewables generation in the market, which tends to occur at kind of the temperatures that we've seen and the weather conditions that we've seen in the year-to-date.

所以這有點像我們認為事情會發生的上限。我想說的是，與某種正常化的價格預期相比，今年年初到目前為止我們的天氣還算不錯。所以我認為天氣沒有我們預期的那麼冷。因此，我認為我們已經在市場上看到了相當多的可再生能源發電，這往往發生在我們已經看到的溫度和今年到我們看到的天氣條件下 -日期。

As you know, that can change pretty quickly and we are seeing that change right now. In terms of the balance of the year, I don't think -- in terms of supply additions into the marketplace, I think what we've seen is, frankly, constructive to pricing in the year. I think some of the larger gas facilities that we were looking at potentially coming in earlier in the year are looking now to come in certainly later in the year and possibly even into the early part of next year. So from a supply perspective, I think that's, I'd say, on balance, probably more positive to seeing better pricing in the year than maybe our original base assumption was when we were looking at our guidance for the year.

如您所知，這種情況可能會很快發生變化，我們現在正在看到這種變化。就今年的餘額而言，我不認為——就市場供應增加而言，坦率地說，我認為我們所看到的對今年的定價是有建設性的。我認為我們正在考慮可能在今年早些時候投入使用的一些較大的天然氣設施現在正在尋找肯定會在今年晚些時候投入使用，甚至可能會在明年年初投入使用。因此，從供應的角度來看，我認為總的來說，與我們在查看今年的指導時的原始基本假設相比，今年看到更好的定價可能更積極。

Your next question comes from Maurice Choy from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Maurice Choy。

I just want to start with buybacks. And obviously, you started -- you stated in the past that you will consider opportunistically buying back your stock, particularly if the share price falls blow your view of the intrinsic value. If I compare the capital you've allocated to buybacks in Q4, the transactions seem to be around the $12 to $13 range, which is quite similar to the earlier parts of 2022. So with the share price being where it is today, how do you view your buyout activity level in 2023?

我只想從回購開始。顯然，你開始了——你過去曾說過你會考慮機會主義地回購你的股票，尤其是當股價下跌超出你對內在價值的看法時。如果我比較你在第四季度分配給回購的資金，交易似乎在 12 美元到 13 美元之間，這與 2022 年初非常相似。所以股價在今天的水平，如何您查看 2023 年的收購活動水平嗎？

So I would -- I think you're right in terms of kind of identifying the levels that we would typically be in the market buying back shares. I would say given where the share price is trading today and given our view generally on where we think value is for the company, it would be low. So it would be the kind of circumstances we would be more active in the market and buying back shares. As you know, we have a pretty set view on how we allocate capital in the company and we've got that bucket of, I think, 35% to 50% that is oriented towards growth, debt repayment and returning capital to our shareholders through share buybacks.

所以我會 - 我認為你在確定我們通常在市場上回購股票的水平方面是正確的。我想說的是，鑑於今天的股價在哪裡交易，並且考慮到我們對公司價值所在的普遍看法，它會很低。因此，在這種情況下，我們會在市場上更加活躍並回購股票。如您所知，我們對如何在公司分配資本有一個固定的看法，我認為我們有 35% 到 50% 的資金用於增長、償還債務和通過以下方式向股東返還資本股份回購。

We do have a pretty significant growth program that's in flight right now that we're making sure that we're allocating capital to appropriately there. But for sure, we would look to being constructive in buying shares in the marketplace when we're seeing the shares trading kind of at lower levels.

我們確實有一個非常重要的增長計劃，我們正在確保我們正在適當地分配資金。但可以肯定的是，當我們看到股票交易價格處於較低水平時，我們會希望在市場上積極買入股票。

And if I could just finish with the R&W TAC question. And thanks for the clarity on the development pipelines in your slides. When I look at -- when we exclude the projects under construction, it does seem like R&W's pipeline is about 15% of TAC's pipeline or a total pipeline combined. Maybe some thoughts on how these lines were drawn. And also, am I right to assume that if an asset sits on a TAC side and not on R&W side, that asset would still be dropped down to R&W?

如果我可以結束 R&W TAC 問題。感謝您在幻燈片中清楚地說明開發流程。當我看——當我們排除在建項目時，R&W 的管道似乎確實約佔 TAC 管道或總管道的 15%。也許對這些線是如何繪製的有一些想法。而且，如果資產位於 TAC 端而不是 R&W 端，我是否可以正確地假設該資產仍會下降到 R&W？

Yes. Maybe I'll start with your last question first and then Todd and I can talk about the allocation. I think -- well, first of all, I think, Maurice, the broad percentage kind of allocation that you talked about is about right. I tend to think of it as sort of in that 17% to 20% would be the total that would be on the R&W side. I think it is the case that the projects that are on the TAC pipeline could, depending on the circumstances, be candidates for a drop down to TransAlta Renewables. So we haven't hardwired that. So that would be done on an asset-by-asset basis in light of the circumstances that we see.

是的。也許我會先回答你的最後一個問題，然後托德和我可以談談分配問題。我認為 - 嗯，首先，我認為，莫里斯，你談到的廣泛百分比分配是正確的。我傾向於將其視為 17% 到 20% 將是 R&W 方面的總數。我認為，根據具體情況，TAC 管道中的項目可能會成為 TransAlta Renewables 的候選項目。所以我們沒有硬連線。因此，這將根據我們看到的情況逐個資產地進行。

I think on the R&W pipeline, those assets that have been articulated there as being very clearly for R&W tend to be expansions of existing assets that are within the R&W family. So for example, when you think of the Canadian battery opportunity, just a simple one, that's tied to Kent Hills, which is an R&W asset. Willow Creek is sort of a step-out growth from existing assets that they would have and the U.S. assets would fall into a similar vein. And then step outs in terms of our existing relationships in Australia would also naturally fall towards TransAlta Renewables given the -- given their investments that they have in that part of the world.

我認為在 R&W 管道上，那些已經明確表達為 R&W 的資產往往是 R&W 家族中現有資產的擴展。因此，例如，當你想到加拿大的電池機會時，只是一個簡單的機會，它與 R&W 資產 Kent Hills 相關。 Willow Creek 是他們現有資產的逐步增長，美國資產也屬於類似的情況。然後就我們在澳大利亞現有的關係而言，考慮到他們在世界那個地區的投資，自然也會轉向 TransAlta Renewables。

Todd, I don't know if you want to add any more color to that, but…

托德，我不知道你是否想為此添加更多顏色，但是......

I think you've covered it well, John. Yes, I mean the -- in particular, the nearest term projects are the Australian ones, which are currently the expansions of existing facilities under the existing contractual relationships. Those are the most advanced and the ones that we're keeping our eye on in the near term here.

我認為你講得很好，約翰。是的，我的意思是 - 特別是，最近的項目是澳大利亞的項目，這些項目目前是現有合同關係下現有設施的擴建。這些是最先進的，也是我們近期關注的。

Your next question comes from Rob Hope from Scotiabank.

你的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Rob Hope。

I want to revisit your comments on capital allocation. I understand you want to save some dry powder for your development pipeline. But when we take a look at your $1.1 billion of cash on the balance sheet programs in flight as well as the potential to sanction another $600 million of growth, you still have quite a lot of dry powder there. So when you take a look at where you want to put capital to work, could we see you do incremental returns to shareholders? Or is there a bias towards something else, whether that's kind of more on the development side?

我想重新審視你對資本配置的評論。我知道您想為您的開發管道節省一些乾粉。但是，當我們看看您在資產負債表計劃中的 11 億美元現金以及批准另外 6 億美元增長的潛力時，您仍然有相當多的干火藥。因此，當您考慮要將資本投入何處時，我們能否看到您為股東增加了回報？或者是否存在對其他方面的偏見，是否更偏向於開發方面？

Rob, you're right when it comes to sort of the strength that we have in the balance sheet. We tend to -- when we look at our capital allocation, look to a view on what's in sort of the best interest of our shareholders from a longer-term perspective, so we are of the view that growth is the primary way -- appropriately risk-adjusted growth is the primary way that we can increase value for our shareholders. That really underpins our entire clean electricity growth plan.

Rob，當談到我們在資產負債表中的實力時，你是對的。我們傾向於——當我們審視我們的資本配置時，從更長遠的角度來看待什麼是我們股東的最佳利益，所以我們認為增長是主要方式——適當地風險調整後的增長是我們為股東增加價值的主要方式。這確實支撐了我們整個清潔電力增長計劃。

And the legacy business is generating strong cash flow right now and that is helping to drive the strength in that balance sheet and the allocation. As I said before, we do look at where the share price is trading in any given time and continue to lever in share buybacks as appropriate. When it comes to sort of the way that we look at our dividend policy and that's a Board issue, obviously. Again, we look at it from a long-term sustainability perspective and making sure that we're layering in that dividend sort of going forward.

傳統業務目前正在產生強勁的現金流，這有助於推動資產負債表和配置的實力。正如我之前所說，我們確實會關注股價在任何給定時間的交易位置，並繼續酌情進行股票回購。當談到我們看待股息政策的方式時，這顯然是董事會的問題。同樣，我們從長期可持續性的角度來看待它，並確保我們在這种红利中分層前進。

So I think maintaining a strong level of liquidity in a bit of an uncertain time that we're in right now and with the kind of growth that we expect to see going forward is prudent and also given kind of the evolution of the Alberta merchant market as well, making sure that we're strong from a financial perspective.

因此，我認為在我們現在所處的不確定時期保持強勁的流動性水平以及我們期望看到的那種增長是謹慎的，並且考慮到艾伯塔省商業市場的演變同樣，確保我們從財務角度來看是強大的。

Yes. No, I'd just add that, look, that's all correct. In our minds, I think we're probably earmarking sort of that $50 million to $75 million number similar to what we've done in prior years. But we are planning and thinking about an Investor Day later in the year and we'll have an opportunity to update you with our thoughts at that point in time.

是的。不，我只是補充一點，看，這都是正確的。在我們看來，我認為我們可能會撥款 5000 萬至 7500 萬美元，這與我們前幾年所做的類似。但我們正在計劃並考慮在今年晚些時候舉辦一個投資者日，屆時我們將有機會向您更新我們的想法。

All right. And then maybe a little bit more of a granular question. M&A kind of ticked up in Q4, specifically at the gas and the hydro assets. Can you give some color what happened there? Was that in part just an acceleration of work just given how much -- just how strong pricing was?

好的。然後可能是一個更具體的問題。併購在第四季度有所增加，特別是在天然氣和水力資產方面。你能給那裡發生的事情一些顏色嗎？這在一定程度上只是工作的加速只是給定了多少 - 定價有多強？

It was effectively a factor that is the strong performance. It is a combination of different things, some of the incentive programs we have and some of the ongoing costs. So it's basically triggered with the stronger performance, Robert.

這實際上是強勁表現的一個因素。它是不同事物的結合，包括我們擁有的一些激勵計劃和一些持續成本。所以它基本上是由更強的表現觸發的，羅伯特。

I think also, Robert, as a line item, I would say insurance has ticked up pretty significantly across the board and that's being reflected in the OM&A side, particularly on the hydro side.

我還認為，羅伯特，作為一個項目，我想說保險已經全面大幅上漲，這反映在 OM&A 方面，特別是在水電方面。

Particularly in hydro. Yes.

特別是在水電方面。是的。

Was that just a Q4 item? Or that has been occurring all through 2022?

那隻是第四季度的項目嗎？或者這種情況一直持續到 2022 年？

It's been a gradual increase throughout the year, I would say. Yes.

我想說，這一年全年都是逐漸增加的。是的。

Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny from National Bank.

您的下一個問題來自國家銀行的 Patrick Kenny。

Just back to the clean growth strategy. And just wondering, as you look back over the past year, given the resurgence in market demand for reliable natural gas-fired generation across multiple jurisdictions, I know you expect the inflationary pressures within your renewables backlog to be offset by higher PPAs. But just curious if you're having conversations with your Board with respect to shifting towards more of a balanced growth strategy between renewables and gas, again given the new geopolitical environment as well as the extra cash that you have on the balance sheet.

回到清潔增長戰略。只是想知道，當你回顧過去一年時，鑑於多個司法管轄區對可靠的天然氣發電的市場需求復蘇，我知道你預計你的可再生能源積壓中的通脹壓力將被更高的購電協議所抵消。但只是想知道您是否正在與董事會就轉向可再生能源和天然氣之間更加平衡的增長戰略進行對話，再次考慮到新的地緣政治環境以及資產負債表上的額外現金。

Our clean electricity growth plan, kind of the status quo plan that we have now that takes us out to 2025, continues to be the focus of the company and the primary direction that we're going in. I would say that the importance of our gas fleet and the role that it plays, for example, in Alberta and even in Southwestern Ontario, very critical and we're very much focused on what are the attributes of that fleet to be cost-effective going forward and as flexible as possible given -- just given the market dynamics that we see developing in both of those jurisdictions. In terms of incremental new, I think, gas build, we do consider it periodically.

我們的清潔電力增長計劃，即我們現在擁有的將我們帶到 2025 年的現狀計劃，仍然是公司的重點和我們前進的主要方向。我想說的是我們的重要性天然氣車隊及其所扮演的角色，例如，在艾伯塔省，甚至在安大略省西南部，非常關鍵，我們非常關注該車隊的屬性是什麼，以便在未來具有成本效益並儘可能靈活- 鑑於我們在這兩個司法管轄區看到的市場動態。在增量新方面，我認為，gas build，我們確實會定期考慮它。

We aren't seeing a ton in terms of it being contracted, getting us to a place where we're comfortable with the kind of cash flows that incremental natural gas generation build would provide. Do we evaluate potentially adding some peaking gas, particularly from an Alberta perspective, the answer to that would be yes, for sure, expecting that to be more merchant in orientation. But in terms of sort of greenfield natural gas prices or natural gas projects, we see a bit of interest for that in Western Australia in sort of those remote kind of operating regions, but we aren't seeing a ton of that certainly from a North American perspective.

我們沒有看到大量合同簽訂，這讓我們對增量天然氣發電建設將提供的現金流感到滿意。我們是否評估可能增加一些峰值氣體，特別是從艾伯塔省的角度來看，答案肯定是肯定的，希望它能更面向商業。但就綠地天然氣價格或天然氣項目而言，我們在西澳大利亞看到了一些偏遠地區的興趣，但我們並沒有從北方看到很多這樣的東西美國視角。

Okay. Got it. And then on the new pumped hydro storage opportunity, wondering if you can comment on what sort of hurdle rates you would need in order to proceed with the investment. Would it be in line with the 11.5x build multiple on the base clean growth plan? Or would you be needing a higher return just to compensate for development risks? And maybe you can walk us through what those key risks on execution might look like.

好的。知道了。然後關於新的抽水蓄能機會，想知道你是否可以評論你需要什麼樣的障礙率才能繼續投資。它是否符合基本清潔增長計劃的 11.5 倍構建倍數？或者您是否需要更高的回報來補償開發風險？也許您可以向我們介紹執行過程中的這些關鍵風險可能是什麼樣子。

No, for sure. So I would say that Tent Mountain is a real early-stage opportunity, Patrick. So in terms of what our hurdle rates -- so we're very excited about the opportunity. But it's years away from coming to reality. In terms of what the hurdle rates would be, our preference would be that we would see that facility contracted in some way or have some kind of a revenue stream that provides at least a relatively predictable cash flow stream for that kind of asset, given the size of capital investment that would be required to bring it through.

不，當然。所以我想說 Tent Mountain 是一個真正的早期機會，帕特里克。因此，就我們的最低要求而言——我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。但距離成為現實還有很多年。就最低要求而言，我們傾向於看到該設施以某種方式簽約或擁有某種收入流，至少為該類資產提供相對可預測的現金流，因為實現它所需的資本投資規模。

So I think the returns that we would be looking for would be in the context from a risk-adjusted perspective on that profile. I don't think that our company right now is viewing that kind of project as a merchant project just to address your question on returns. In terms of some of the development elements associated with that, again, early days, just making sure that we're clear from a pricing perspective, what it would cost to get to the project to be executed. We have a sense of what that would be and there has been technical work done. But there is a bit more that we need to do to make sure that it's there.

因此，我認為我們要尋找的回報是從該概況的風險調整角度來看的。我不認為我們公司現在將此類項目視為商業項目只是為了解決您的退貨問題。就與此相關的一些開發元素而言，再次，早期，只是確保我們從定價的角度清楚，執行項目的成本是多少。我們知道那會是什麼，並且已經完成了技術工作。但是我們需要做更多的事情來確保它在那裡。

And then kind of the age-old question, it seems, increasingly important is transmission interconnection. It is in a relatively remote part of the province and the issue would be how much would it cost and what would the time frames be to be -- to be able to bring that power into the grid from an interconnected perspective in an efficient manner. So those are -- just trying to give you a bit of a flavor of the kinds of ways we're looking at it.

然後是一個古老的問題，似乎越來越重要的是傳輸互連。它位於該省相對偏遠的地區，問題是需要多少成本以及時間框架——能夠從互連的角度以有效的方式將電力接入電網。所以那些 - 只是想讓你對我們正在看待它的各種方式有所了解。

Your next question comes from John Mould from TD Securities.

您的下一個問題來自道明證券的 John Mold。

Maybe just starting with your '23 objective of securing long-term contracts for the Alberta merchant fleet. How much of that fleet would you ideally like to contract and maybe what's realistic? And what does the competitive environment look like for contracting those assets right now given the pipeline of new build renewable power development projects out there in the province, including your own?

也許只是從你的 23 年目標開始，即確保為艾伯塔商船隊簽訂長期合同。理想情況下，您希望承包多少機隊，而什麼是現實的？考慮到該省新建可再生能源開發項目的管道，包括您自己的項目，現在承包這些資產的競爭環境如何？

Yes. So right now -- so what we focus on and when we think of the kinds of contracting that we're doing, I'm going to separate kind of the contracting that we would do to kind of underpin new growth, greenfield growth from a PPA perspective and kind of just focus on the kind of re-contracting that we're focusing on for our merchant fleet right now, which is really what the goal is directed towards. We are seeing some interest in having renewables from off-takers come in. I think the work that we've done with Lafarge, for example, to supply some of their operations from our existing wind fleet.

是的。所以現在——所以我們關注的是什麼，當我們想到我們正在做的承包類型時，我將把我們將做的承包類型分開，以支持新的增長，綠地增長與PPA 的觀點和某種程度上只是關注我們現在關注的商船隊的重新合同，這確實是我們的目標。我們看到一些人對承購商的可再生能源感興趣。我認為我們與拉法基所做的工作，例如，從我們現有的風力機隊中提供他們的一些業務。

On the gas side, which is an even bigger focus for us as we go forward, our C&I business is an important component. It has grown for us. So when we talk about our hedge levels, I would say, Todd, 40 -- almost 50% of that is probably underpinned by our C&I business as we go forward as opposed to just hedging in the financial market. That tends to be in that 3-year range. We have seen more recently a bit of an uptick in interest from customers in terms of making sure that they lock in power prices, given some of the -- just higher prices that we've experienced over the last little bit, and our C&I team is looking at increasing that.

在天然氣方面，這是我們未來更加關注的重點，我們的 C&I 業務是一個重要組成部分。它為我們成長。因此，當我們談論我們的對沖水平時，我會說，托德，40 歲——其中近 50% 可能是由我們前進的 C&I 業務支撐的，而不僅僅是金融市場的對沖。這往往在 3 年的範圍內。我們最近看到客戶對確保他們鎖定電價的興趣有所上升，因為我們在過去一點點經歷的一些 - 只是更高的價格，以及我們的 C＆I 團隊正在考慮增加這一點。

We tend to focus on that, I would say, Todd, is kind of representing what the equivalent would be of our version of baseload generation from a thermal perspective and making sure that it's contracted in an appropriate -- at an appropriate level with a view to long-term generation over that period. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color.

我們傾向於關注這一點，我想說，托德，它代表了從熱學角度來看我們的基本負荷發電版本的等價物，並確保它以適當的方式收縮——在適當的水平上有一個觀點到那個時期的長期一代。所以希望這能給你一點色彩。

Yes. Yes, I would say it really is focused on the C&I business because it is an attractive way for us to hedge out 3 to 5 years. That really doesn't exist in the financial markets to any magnitude. And as John mentioned, sort of thinking that 300 megawatts plus is a nice baseload level of fixed price contract to have. Period.

是的。是的，我會說它確實專注於 C&I 業務，因為它是我們對沖 3 到 5 年的一種有吸引力的方式。這在金融市場上確實不存在任何規模。正如約翰所提到的，有點認為 300 兆瓦以上是固定價格合同的一個很好的基本負載水平。時期。

Okay. Great. And then maybe just coming back to the R&W pipeline. There's nothing in there for Ontario. You are qualified for Ontario's first upcoming long-term RFP. Just given the supply outlook in the province, are there opportunities for adding storage, optimizing Sarnia or wind expansions at some of the sites within R&W's portfolio or would any opportunities in that province really land beyond the 2026-ish time horizon that you're covering seemingly in that pipeline?

好的。偉大的。然後也許只是回到 R&W 管道。裡面沒有安大略省的東西。您有資格獲得安大略省即將推出的第一個長期 RFP。僅考慮到該省的供應前景，是否有機會在 R&W 投資組合的某些地點增加存儲、優化 Sarnia 或風能擴展，或者該省的任何機會真的會超出您所涵蓋的 2026 年左右的時間範圍似乎在那條管道中？

Yes. We are, John, looking at potentially adding a bit of incremental generation in some of our existing gas facilities in Southwestern Ontario, particularly in areas where we think just given sort of power demand and the grid that they would be in demand. We aren't at this point in time anyways expecting to be sort of a major player in that period of time or sort of stepping out in any significant way some of the existing wind facilities, for example, that we have in the region, I think of Melancthon or facilities or Wolfe Island, sorry, just outside of Kingston. I think those are pretty well built up. And so we're not seeing it as a big opportunity of runway for us going forward. And we recently did participate in one of the RFPs that we had in Ontario and it helped with some of our post-PPA contracting in Ontario at Melancthon. And so we'll do it opportunistically, but we don't have a ton of focus on that right now.

是的。約翰，我們正在考慮在安大略省西南部的一些現有天然氣設施中增加一些增量發電，特別是在我們認為剛剛給定電力需求和電網需求的地區。無論如何，我們在這個時間點並不期望成為那個時期的主要參與者，或者以任何重要的方式走出一些現有的風能設施，例如，我們在該地區擁有的，我想到 Melancthon 或設施或沃爾夫島，對不起，就在金斯敦外面。我認為這些已經很好地建立起來了。因此，我們並不認為這是我們前進的大好機會。我們最近確實參加了我們在安大略省的一個 RFP，它幫助我們在安大略省 Melancthon 的一些 PPA 後合同。所以我們會機會主義地做這件事，但我們現在沒有太多的關注。

Your next question comes from Ben Pham from BMO.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ben Pham。

Just a couple of questions on R&W. I'm wondering -- I know you got the backlog in the slide. But with R&W, just looking at the yield of 8.5%, 100% payout, I mean how do you -- how does R&W even contemplate even making any sort of acquisitions or drop-downs with that cost of capital?

關於 R&W 的幾個問題。我想知道——我知道你在幻燈片中看到了積壓工作。但是對於 R&W，只要看看 8.5% 的收益率，100% 的支出，我的意思是你如何——R&W 甚至如何考慮用這種資本成本進行任何形式的收購或撤資？

Yes Ben, look, I think really 2 avenues that we're focused on and clearly, as we mentioned, the Kent Hills remediation is fully funded. But on top of that, the company does still have some bit of cash in Canada. It also has access to some cash down in Australia from those operations. So there's a little bit of cash remaining available. And on top of that, the company really has modest leverage. So there's additional capacity on the leverage side that we can look to entertain. But it was one of our core -- your comment is exactly driven around one of our core discussions internally about allocating growth and how do we do growth going forward. And it was clear that was TransAlta was sitting on larger cash balances and that would just naturally lead you to a more moderated growth profile down at TransAlta Renewables. And basically, you have to pick your focus areas of why you want to invest and clearly, that's in the Australian and the Albertan businesses.

是的，本，你看，我認為我們真正關注的是 2 個途徑，而且很明顯，正如我們提到的，肯特山整治項目資金充足。但除此之外，該公司在加拿大仍有一些現金。它還可以從這些業務中獲得澳大利亞的一些現金。所以還有一點現金可用。最重要的是，該公司確實具有適度的影響力。因此，我們可以考慮利用槓桿方面的額外能力。但它是我們的核心之一——你的評論正是圍繞我們內部關於分配增長以及我們如何實現增長的核心討論之一提出的。很明顯，TransAlta 擁有更大的現金餘額，這自然會導致您在 TransAlta Renewables 的增長情況更加溫和。基本上，你必須選擇你想要投資的重點領域，很明顯，這是在澳大利亞和艾伯塔省的企業。

Okay. Got it. I know maybe just another question on R&W. We've seen U.S. Yieldco launch a strategic review because of a high yield. Is that something that the R&W Board and the team is considering or looking at?

好的。知道了。我知道也許只是關於 R&W 的另一個問題。我們已經看到美國 Yieldco 因高收益而啟動戰略審查。這是 R&W 董事會和團隊正在考慮或關注的事情嗎？

Yes. I don't -- and look -- and Todd can speak to this. I don't think there is any sense of doing a big sort of strategic review right now from a TransAlta Renewables perspective. I think we've talked about the convergence of the strategies of the 2 companies and the notion that in terms of the broader TransAlta group, having an interest in simplifying our structure if we can. That has a number of elements to it. It requires -- when we think about what that means going forward, clearly, that would need to be fair to TransAlta Renewables shareholders.

是的。我不——看——托德可以談談這個。從 TransAlta Renewables 的角度來看，我認為現在沒有任何意義進行大規模的戰略審查。我想我們已經討論了兩家公司戰略的融合，以及就更廣泛的 TransAlta 集團而言，如果可以的話，我們有興趣簡化我們的結構。這有很多要素。它要求——當我們考慮這意味著什麼時，很明顯，這需要對 TransAlta Renewables 股東公平。

It would need to be appropriate and make a lot of sense for our existing TransAlta Corporation shareholders, whatever we would do, would need to make sure that we would or consider that it continue to permit us to grow and execute on our clean electricity growth plan and obviously maintain our credit rating. So it's an ongoing thing that we assess internally, I would say, rather than doing any kind of a public sort of strategic review.

對於我們現有的 TransAlta Corporation 股東來說，這需要適當且有意義，無論我們做什麼，都需要確保我們願意或考慮它繼續允許我們發展和執行我們的清潔電力增長計劃顯然維持我們的信用評級。因此，我會說，這是我們內部評估的持續性事情，而不是進行任何類型的公開戰略審查。

Okay. Got it. And then John, maybe my last one as a follow-up. I mean you've had probably the best year, I have seen TA put out forever for a long time, and your stock sitting and languishing over the last year. How much do you think that's attributed to how the R&W vehicle has moved? I mean is there something else to that you think is driving that disconnect?

好的。知道了。然後是約翰，也許是我的最後一個跟進者。我的意思是你可能度過了最好的一年，我已經看到 TA 很長一段時間永遠停滯不前，而你的股票在過去一年裡停滯不前。您認為這在多大程度上歸因於 R&W 車輛的移動方式？我的意思是，您認為還有其他原因導致這種脫節嗎？

Ben, I'd be speculating. I mean, I think, for sure, the way that TransAlta Renewables trades and how it all fits within the family has an impact on the company and how it trades. But I have to tell you, we're just focused on trying to execute our business plan. We're looking at making sure that we operate our facilities as best as we can. We're trying to be as disciplined as we possibly can from a capital allocation perspective and making sure that the projects that we're bringing on makes sense and achieve the metrics that we've set for them and create value for our shareholders. And our belief is if we continue to execute well, that would be the key thing that, that value that we're creating will be reflected in the marketplace. So we -- again, taking a long-term view.

本，我會猜測。我的意思是，我認為，可以肯定的是，TransAlta Renewables 的交易方式以及它在家族中的融入方式對公司及其交易方式產生了影響。但我必須告訴你，我們只是專注於嘗試執行我們的商業計劃。我們正在努力確保我們盡可能地運營我們的設施。從資本配置的角度來看，我們正努力盡可能地遵守紀律，並確保我們正在進行的項目是有意義的，並實現我們為他們設定的指標，並為我們的股東創造價值。我們的信念是，如果我們繼續執行良好，那將是關鍵，我們創造的價值將反映在市場上。所以我們——再次，從長遠的角度來看。

Your next question comes from Naji Baydoun from iA Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 iA Capital Markets 的 Naji Baydoun。

Just wanted to start off with a brief update on Garden Plain. Still no sort of changes to the ownership structure there, no indications from Pembina.

只是想從 Garden Plain 的簡短更新開始。那裡的所有權結構仍然沒有任何變化，Pembina 沒有任何跡象。

Naji, no. No indications from Pembina. We are getting close to getting that wind farm up and running. I think, Todd, by and large, we would think that we would be substantially there, I would say, by the end of the quarter, roughly speaking. So I think we're entering into that zone on when Pembina would consider whether it would be wanting to exercise its option to acquire its interest in the facility. But no -- nothing more than that at this point.

納吉，不。 Pembina 沒有任何跡象。我們即將啟動並運行該風電場。我想，托德，總的來說，我們會認為我們會在本季度末粗略地說到那裡。所以我認為我們正在進入 Pembina 何時考慮是否要行使其選擇權以獲取其在該設施中的權益的區域。但不——在這一點上僅此而已。

They haven't given us indication of which way they're leaning at this point.

他們還沒有告訴我們他們目前傾向於哪種方式。

No. Not one way or the other.

不，不是這樣或那樣。

I just -- did just want to point out that Garden Plain is connected to the grid and a number of turbines have been commissioned and generating in. So it's up and running. It's not finished yet, but it's up and running and contributing. So we're happy to see that.

我只是 - 只是想指出 Garden Plain 已連接到電網並且許多渦輪機已經調試並發電。所以它已經啟動並運行。它還沒有完成，但它已經啟動並正在運行並做出貢獻。所以我們很高興看到這一點。

Okay. I just wanted to try to take another stab at the capital allocation. I mean, an amazing year, great free cash flow generation, '22 and then '23 as well, yet kind of the stock prices is going the other direction. You get a bit of buybacks in Q4, but not much. I guess once permanent financing is completed for the existing projects, is that enough to maybe launch like a more meaningful share repurchase program, maybe even an SIB?

好的。我只是想嘗試在資本配置上再試一次。我的意思是，這是令人驚嘆的一年，產生了巨大的自由現金流，22 年和 23 年也是如此，但股票價格卻朝著另一個方向發展。你在第四季度得到了一些回購，但不多。我想一旦現有項目的永久性融資完成，是否足以啟動更有意義的股票回購計劃，甚至是 SIB？

Yes. I don't want to -- Naji, I wouldn't speculate on what we would do in terms of whether we would do a substantial issuer bid or anything more. I can tell you, it is a constant discussion that we have in our management team, a constant discussion that we have with our Board of Directors, every meeting that we have in terms of what an appropriate level of capital allocation would be. Again, we're focused on the long-term. But at the kind of trading prices that we've recently seen for the share price, I think you can expect that we would be in the market being active from time to time buying back shares.

是的。我不想——納吉，我不會推測我們會做什麼，比如我們是否會進行實質性的發行人要約或其他任何事情。我可以告訴你，這是我們在管理團隊中不斷進行的討論，我們與董事會不斷進行的討論，以及我們就適當的資本配置水平舉行的每次會議。同樣，我們專注於長期。但按照我們最近看到的股價交易價格，我認為你可以預期我們會在市場上不時活躍地回購股票。

Yes. And just to point out, again, we -- I think it was mentioned, we still have to finish the existing construction on the announced facilities and then we are targeting 500 megawatts of new growth, which would equate roughly to north of $1 billion of capital spend. So look, that is our primary focus. So we're not, as John said, sort of entertaining SIB at this point.

是的。再次指出，我們 - 我認為有人提到過，我們仍然必須完成已宣佈設施的現有建設，然後我們的目標是 500 兆瓦的新增長，這大約相當於 10 億美元以上資本支出。所以看，這是我們的主要重點。因此，正如 John 所說，此時我們並不是在招待 SIB。

Okay. Okay. Perhaps, I guess, more updates to as the year unfolds and we look forward to that Investor Day. Just maybe one last question on those FID of new projects. So you've got Tempest and WaterCharger that kind of maybe takes you to 300 megawatts. Just any more color on when kind of the remaining 200 megawatts could come from to get you to 500 for the year.

好的。好的。也許，我想，隨著時間的推移，會有更多的更新，我們期待著投資者日的到來。最後一個問題可能是關於新項目的 FID。所以你有 Tempest 和 WaterCharger，這可能會讓你達到 300 兆瓦。剩下的 200 兆瓦什麼時候可以讓你達到 500 的更多顏色。

Yes. We have -- I think it's just under 100 megawatts in Australia actually at Southern Cross that we're working with BHP to actually land as well. So when you look at the entire portfolio, I think when you do the math, it's just under 400 megawatts of late-stage projects that we've got in place. And the team continues to work various other elements in our pipeline, including potentially other projects that you don't see in our pipeline that could come forward. So we're feeling pretty confident of our ability to land 500 megawatts over the course of the year.

是的。我們有——我認為在澳大利亞，我們正在與必和必拓合作實際登陸南十字星，實際容量不到 100 兆瓦。因此，當您查看整個投資組合時，我認為當您進行數學計算時，我們已經實施的後期項目不到 400 兆瓦。該團隊繼續在我們的管道中處理各種其他元素，包括您在我們的管道中看不到的可能出現的其他項目。因此，我們對我們在一年中實現 500 兆瓦的能力充滿信心。

Okay. Okay. So just to be clear, that 94 megawatt expansion, that's a gas project, correct? So the 500 megawatts is not all renewables, it's just total.

好的。好的。所以要明確一點，94 兆瓦的擴建，這是一個天然氣項目，對嗎？所以 500 兆瓦不全是可再生能源，它只是總量。

That's right.

這是正確的。

That's fair. Yes.

這還算公平。是的。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Chris Varcoe from Calgary Herald.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自卡爾加里先驅報的 Chris Varcoe。

It's a question for John. John, we've seen natural gas prices across North America tumble this year pretty sharply. But I'm wondering what kind of impact do you see these lower gas prices having upon your business and upon power prices in Alberta in 2023? And separately, do you view these lower prices as something that might be sustainable through the year or do you view this as just more of a temporary phenomenon?

這是約翰的問題。約翰，我們看到今年北美的天然氣價格大幅下跌。但我想知道，您認為這些較低的天然氣價格對您的業務以及 2023 年艾伯塔省的電價有何影響？另外，您是否認為這些較低的價格可能會持續一整年，或者您認為這只是一種暫時現象？

Yes. Chris, in terms of natural gas prices, maybe I'll try to answer the question this way. I mean, I think having lower natural gas prices tends to help in terms of moderating kind of prices that you'd see in the marketplace. I mean natural gas prices are still one of the most critical input costs in terms of pricing that goes on in the market. And as you know, last year, prices were high kind of had been almost in some places, record levels of cost. We have seen prices come down, as you say.

是的。克里斯，就天然氣價格而言，也許我會嘗試這樣回答問題。我的意思是，我認為降低天然氣價格往往有助於降低您在市場上看到的價格。我的意思是，就市場定價而言，天然氣價格仍然是最關鍵的投入成本之一。正如你所知，去年，價格很高，在某些地方幾乎達到了創紀錄的成本水平。正如你所說，我們已經看到價格下降了。

Right now, we're in the mid-$2 range, I think, Todd, in terms of what we're expecting. And I think we see that as being relatively stable, certainly for this year into 2023 and even going into 2024. And our company has largely procured its natural gas needs for the year at pricing that would be in that mid-$2 range -- kind of in that $2.50 range. I think more importantly, when you look at the province of Alberta, there continues to be, at least from our company's perspective, a very real need to have natural gas-fired generation in the province.

現在，我認為，托德，就我們的預期而言，我們處於 2 美元左右的範圍內。而且我認為我們認為這是相對穩定的，肯定是今年到 2023 年甚至到 2024 年。而且我們公司已經在很大程度上採購了今年的天然氣需求，價格在 2 美元左右 - 不錯在 2.50 美元的範圍內。我認為更重要的是，當你看看艾伯塔省時，至少從我們公司的角度來看，該省仍然非常需要天然氣發電。

I mean we have cold days like today or super-hot days, the renewables just can't provide the level of security and reliability that we need for the grid. So we think from a long-term perspective, it continues to be a critical part of the menu that needs to be in the province. But I think we're in a bit of a period of more moderated gas pricing right now, kind of a stable period, I would say. But who knows? I couldn't -- I probably would have said something similar at the beginning of 2022, and then the world turned upside down.

我的意思是我們有像今天這樣寒冷的日子或超級炎熱的日子，可再生能源無法提供我們對電網所需的安全性和可靠性水平。所以我們認為，從長遠的角度來看，它仍然是該省菜單中的關鍵部分。但我認為我們現在正處於一個更加溫和的天然氣定價時期，我想說，這是一個穩定的時期。但誰知道呢？我不能——我可能會在 2022 年初說類似的話，然後世界就天翻地覆了。

Just changing gears, I wondered if you could lay out for me a timeline and the next steps for your early-stage pumped hydro project, the Tent Mountain Renewable Energy Complex.

只是換檔，我想知道你是否可以為我制定一個時間表和你的早期抽水蓄能項目的後續步驟，帳篷山可再生能源綜合體。

Great. So in terms of the next steps internally for us, it continues to be a considerable amount of due diligence, more technical work being done on making sure that we can, in a very effective way, move water from the upper reservoir to the lower reservoir up and down at an appropriate period of time, really pressure testing the construction cost of that and the economics associated with that, thinking through regulatory requirements, thinking through interconnection to the grid, which is a critical component there, making sure that we deal with our stakeholders in an appropriate way to make sure that the development is appropriate and they have an ability to provide input into that before we get anywhere near to being able to bring it in a real meaningful way to our Investment Performance Committee and our Board for assessment.

偉大的。因此，就我們內部的下一步而言，這仍然是大量的盡職調查，正在進行更多的技術工作，以確保我們能夠以一種非常有效的方式將水從上層水庫轉移到下層水庫在適當的時間上下波動，真正對建設成本和與之相關的經濟性進行壓力測試，考慮監管要求，考慮與電網的互連，這是那裡的關鍵組成部分，確保我們處理我們的利益相關者以適當的方式確保開發是合適的，並且他們有能力在我們接近能夠以真正有意義的方式將其提交給我們的投資績效委員會和董事會進行評估之前提供意見.

It remains years away, I would say, Chris, and one of the key things, I think, before we can begin actioning on it, not so much doing the diligence we need to develop it, but to actually bring it forward as a viable project would be visibility or revenue stream. How confident are we that we're going to be able to get paid for developing a project like this. We think it's exactly the kind of thing that the problems we'll meet in the future. But we're not quite there, I don't think, from a market construct perspective where the value of that would be, I think, fully recognized yet in the marketplace. I think we'll get there, though.

它還有很多年，我想說，克里斯，我認為關鍵的事情之一是，在我們開始對其採取行動之前，與其說我們需要盡職盡責地開發它，不如說是將它作為一個可行的方案真正提出來項目將是知名度或收入流。我們有多大信心能夠通過開發這樣的項目獲得報酬。我們認為這正是我們將來會遇到的問題。但我認為，從市場構建的角度來看，我們還沒有完全做到這一點，我認為，在市場上，它的價值將得到充分認可。不過，我認為我們會到達那裡。

And just finally, how do you view it vis-a-vis the Brazeau project? And I guess, maybe can you update me on where that project now sits within the company?

最後，您如何看待 Brazeau 項目？我想，也許你能告訴我該項目現在在公司中的位置嗎？

Yes. Brazeau is also a later-stage project, similar considerations, I would say, with Brazeau. I think we have a better sense of some of the technical requirements of Brazeau in the sense that we've been working on it for a longer period of time and periodically refresh the costs associated with developing that project. But it too needs to have some kind of line of sight or visibility to the revenue stream before we'd be able to bring it forward. And again, we think it's the kind of battery effectively that the province will need in the future.

是的。 Brazeau 也是一個後期項目，類似的考慮，我會說，與 Brazeau。我認為我們對 Brazeau 的一些技術要求有了更好的認識，因為我們已經研究了更長的時間，並定期更新與開發該項目相關的成本。但在我們能夠推進它之前，它也需要對收入流有某種視線或可見性。而且，我們認為這是該省未來需要的有效電池。

In some respects, the Montem site is -- our Tent Mountain site is even better than Brazeau. It's 15 hours of storage, we think, right now. Brazeau might be a little bit less than that and we really like the height differential between the upper reservoir and the lower reservoir. Also with more bite-size capital cost. Brazeau, although we can stage it, we can phase out the size of Brazeau. It's a pretty big project. I think right now, it would roughly be in the $3 billion range to put it in place and Tent Mountain would be quite a significant order of magnitude less than that.

在某些方面，Montem 站點是——我們的 Tent Mountain 站點甚至比 Brazeau 更好。我們認為，現在是 15 小時的存儲時間。 Brazeau 可能比那個小一點，我們真的很喜歡上水庫和下水庫之間的高度差。還有更多的資本成本。 Brazeau，儘管我們可以上演，但我們可以逐步淘汰Brazeau的規模。這是一個相當大的工程。我認為現在，將其落實到位大約在 30 億美元的範圍內，而 Tent Mountain 將比這少一個顯著的數量級。

Presenters, there are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with your closing remarks.

主持人，目前沒有其他問題。請繼續您的結束語。

Great. Thank you, everyone. That concludes our call for today. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the TransAlta Investor Relations team later today. Thank you very much.

偉大的。謝謝大家。我們今天的呼籲到此結束。如果您有任何其他問題，請不要猶豫，今天晚些時候聯繫 TransAlta 投資者關係團隊。非常感謝。

We thank you for joining and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you.

我們感謝您的加入，並請您斷開線路。謝謝。