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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the AT&T fourth-quarter earnings release 2013 conference call.
女士們、先生們,感謝大家的支持,並歡迎參加 AT&T 2013 年第四季財報電話會議。
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
此時,所有參與者都處於只聽模式。
Later we will conduct a question and answer session, and instructions will be given at that time.
稍後我們將進行問答環節,屆時將作出指示。
(Operator Instructions).
(操作員說明)。
Also as a reminder, today's teleconference is being recorded.
另外提醒一下,今天的電話會議正在錄製中。
At this time, I will turn the call over to your host, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Ms. Susan Johnson.
現在,我將把電話轉給主持人、投資者關係高級副總裁蘇珊·約翰遜女士。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Susan Johnson - SVP, IR
Susan Johnson - SVP, IR
Thank you, Tony.
謝謝你,托尼。
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome.
大家下午好,歡迎光臨。
It's great to have you with us today.
很高興今天有你和我們在一起。
I am Susan Johnson, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T.
我是蘇珊‧約翰遜 (Susan Johnson),AT&T 投資者關係主管。
Joining me on the call today is Randall Stephenson, AT&T's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and John Stephens, AT&T's Chief Financial Officer.
今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 AT&T 董事長兼執行長 Randall Stephenson 和 AT&T 財務長約翰‧史蒂芬斯 (John Stephens)。
Randall will discuss our 2013 highlights and then close with a strategic perspective and 2014 outlook, and John will cover our results.
Randall 將討論我們 2013 年的亮點,然後以戰略視角和 2014 年展望作為結束語,John 將介紹我們的結果。
Then we will follow up with questions and answers.
然後我們將跟進問題和解答。
Let me remind you our earnings material is available on the Investor Relations page of the AT&T website.
讓我提醒您,我們的收益資料可在 AT&T 網站的投資者關係頁面上找到。
That's www.att.com\investor.relations.
這是 www.att.com\investor.relations。
Of course, I need to cover our Safe Harbor statement, which is on slide three.
當然,我需要介紹第三張投影片上的安全港聲明。
This presentation and comments may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks.
本簡報和評論可能包含具有風險的前瞻性陳述。
Results may differ materially.
結果可能存在重大差異。
Further details are in our SEC filings and on AT&T's website.
更多詳細資訊請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及 AT&T 的網站。
I would now like to turn the call over to AT&T's Chairman and CEO, Randall Stephenson.
我現在想將電話轉給 AT&T 董事長兼執行長 Randall Stephenson。
Randall?
蘭德爾?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Thanks, Susan, and good afternoon, everyone, and happy new year.
謝謝蘇珊,大家下午好,新年快樂。
2013 was an interesting year for the industry, and I would suggest to you it's probably a formative year.
2013 年對該行業來說是有趣的一年,我建議您這可能是形成的一年。
We saw old competitors stake out new positions.
我們看到老競爭對手佔據了新的位置。
We saw most of the players significantly change the value proposition for their customers.
我們看到大多數參與者顯著改變了其客戶的價值主張。
And with smartphone penetration beginning to hit some impressive levels, we've seen new business models emerge around LTE and the cloud.
隨著智慧型手機的普及率開始達到令人印象深刻的水平,我們看到圍繞 LTE 和雲端的新商業模式不斷湧現。
And in our case, that includes things like connected homes, connected cars, video and mobile business solutions.
就我們而言,這包括連網家庭、連網汽車、視訊和行動業務解決方案等。
But from our view, the most important development that we are seeing is that the entire US telecom industry is investing aggressively in advanced networks.
但從我們的角度來看,我們看到的最重要的發展是整個美國電信業正在積極投資先進網路。
Today, in the US, four national carriers and dozens of regional providers are building out LTE, and you just don't see that happening anywhere else in the world.
如今,在美國,四家國家營運商和數十家地區供應商正在建造 LTE,而這種情況在世界其他地方是看不到的。
The industry is now competing on price, customer service, technological innovation and, most importantly, network coverage and quality.
該行業目前在價格、客戶服務、技術創新以及最重要的網路覆蓋和品質方面展開競爭。
And we think this speaks volumes about where the country's public policy has landed concerning spectrum and the importance of light touch regulation.
我們認為這充分說明了該國公共政策在光譜方面的進展以及寬鬆監管的重要性。
We think it's very, very important to maintain that approach as we move forward.
我們認為在我們前進的過程中保持這種方法非常非常重要。
Because of these things, the industry is healthy, and it is attracting a lot of investment.
正因為如此,這個行業是健康的,並且吸引了大量的投資。
So let me give you a few highlights.
那麼讓我來為您介紹一些亮點。
And then what I am going to do is turn it over to John, and he will take you through the details of the quarter.
然後我要做的就是把它交給約翰,他會帶你了解這個季度的細節。
First, our revenue and EPS growth finished right on track with our guidance.
首先,我們的收入和每股盈餘成長符合我們的指導方針。
Cash generation was strong both from operations and for the monetization of nonstrategic assets.
營運和非策略性資產貨幣化產生的現金強勁。
For the full year, we invested $25 billion in CapEx and spectrum, and then returned another $23 billion to shareholders through our dividend and share buyback programs.
全年,我們在資本支出和頻譜方面投資了 250 億美元,然後透過股息和股票回購計畫向股東返還了另外 230 億美元。
We ended the year with really high quality credit metrics, and our pension plan funding is in great shape.
我們以非常高品質的信用指標結束了這一年,我們的退休金計劃資金狀況良好。
2013 was our first year for Project VIP, and we are well ahead of schedule across the board -- LTE deployment, U-verse expansion and fiber to the business.
2013 年是我們實施 VIP 專案的第一年,我們在 LTE 部署、U-verse 擴展和光纖到業務等各方面都遠遠超出了計劃。
I would tell you it was a home run year by our network operations group.
我可以告訴你,這是我們網路營運團隊打出全壘打的一年。
In terms of LTE coverage, we said we would get LTE to 300 million people by the end of 2014.
在LTE覆蓋方面,我們表示到2014年底我們將讓3億人享受LTE。
We are already closing in on that number, and we expect to be essentially done by summer.
我們已經接近這個數字,預計在夏季之前基本完成。
John is going to give you the details, but growth in these platforms was very strong.
約翰將向您提供詳細信息,但這些平台的成長非常強勁。
Mobile data is now a $23 billion revenue stream, and it is growing at 17%.
行動數據現已成為 230 億美元的收入來源,並且正在以 17% 的速度成長。
U-verse is more than $13 billion of annualized revenues, and it's growing at 28%.
U-verse 的年收入超過 130 億美元,並且正在以 28% 的速度成長。
Strategic business services are now at $9 billion at a run rate and the growth ramp throughout 2013, and it hit 17% in the fourth quarter.
策略商業服務目前的運作速度和成長速度在 2013 年達到 90 億美元,第四季達到 17%。
We expect this growth rate to step up again this year.
我們預計今年這一成長率將再次加快。
We've rolled out a number of new technology solutions.
我們推出了許多新技術解決方案。
We are having terrific success with our AT&T NetBond service, which combines our VPN network with cloud services for companies like IBM and Microsoft.
我們的 AT&T NetBond 服務取得了巨大成功,該服務將我們的 VPN 網路與 IBM 和 Microsoft 等公司的雲端服務結合。
What it does is gives customers a secure connection to the cloud that they can't get on the public Internet.
它的作用是為客戶提供他們無法在公共互聯網上獲得的與雲端的安全連接。
Our mobile business solutions continue to scale.
我們的行動業務解決方案不斷擴展。
Digital life and connected card are off to strong starts, and we are very enthusiastic about no contract wireless.
數位生活和聯網卡已經有了良好的開端,我們對無合約無線技術非常熱衷。
We expect the Leap acquisition to close by end of the first quarter, and we are convinced that putting the Cricket brand on top of the AT&T network is going to shake things up in this space.
我們預計 Leap 收購將在第一季末完成,我們相信將 Cricket 品牌置於 AT&T 網路之上將徹底改變這一領域。
So if you go to slide five, a year ago I told the team that 2013 would be the year of the network for us, and that turned out to be an understatement.
因此,如果你看第五張投影片,一年前我告訴團隊,2013 年將是我們的網路年,結果證明這是一個輕描淡寫的說法。
Today our network is best-in-class.
今天,我們的網路是一流的。
We have come out on top in all sorts of third-party tests for network quality and speed.
我們在各種第三方網路品質和速度測試中均名列前茅。
In fact, in a broad study of overall performance -- and that was done by RootMetrics -- we are head and shoulders above the field.
事實上,在 RootMetrics 進行的一項對整體性能的廣泛研究中,我們遙遙領先於該領域。
The chart on slide five shows you how we stack up, and we think it's telling.
第五張投影片上的圖表向您展示了我們的情況,我們認為這很能說明問題。
We are in a dead heat with Verizon for lowest in dropped calls, well under 1%, and our other national competitors are at twice the dropped call rate or more.
我們在掉話率最低方面與 Verizon 不分上下,遠低於 1%,而我們其他國內競爭對手的掉話率是其兩倍或更多。
That's the reason we posted record low fourth-quarter postpaid churn.
這就是我們第四季後付費客戶流失率創歷史新低的原因。
On slide six, you see that our network puts us in a great position for what we think is the industry's next growth wave.
在第六張投影片上,您可以看到我們的網路使我們處於有利地位,可以應對我們認為的行業的下一波成長。
There's a lot of talk about the connected world ahead.
關於未來的互聯世界有很多討論。
There are different estimates on how fast it develops.
對於它的發展速度有不同的估計。
But I think we are all going to agree that it's a big opportunity.
但我認為我們都會同意這是一個巨大的機會。
And when you combine these pervasive, superfast LTE networks with the cloud, it changes everything.
當您將這些普遍存在的超高速 LTE 網路與雲端結合時,一切都會改變。
It changes every industry, every aspect of our society and the economy.
它改變了我們社會和經濟的每一個產業、每一個面向。
And for this industry, it means we are moving past the era of smartphone wars to rethink in how we work, how we conduct commerce, how we learn and manage our health and so much more.
對這個產業來說,這意味著我們正在經歷智慧型手機大戰的時代,重新思考我們的工作方式、進行商業活動、學習和管理健康等等。
In fact, the visual on slide six captures most of what's taking place.
事實上,第六張投影片上的視覺效果捕捉了大部分正在發生的事情。
It starts with the ultrafast connectivity to the cloud as smartphones are quickly becoming the remote control for this connected world and the pace of innovation is accelerating.
它始於與雲端的超快速連接,因為智慧型手機正在迅速成為這個互聯世界的遙控器,創新的步伐正在加快。
And this explains why we are being so aggressive with project VIP and with initiatives like our U-verse 1 gig launch down in Austin.
這解釋了為什麼我們如此積極地開展 VIP 項目以及在奧斯汀推出 U-verse 1 演出等舉措。
These things give us the ability to drive innovation and then lead in the next waves of growth.
這些東西使我們有能力推動創新,然後引領下一波成長。
So with that, I want to turn it over to John to take you through the results.
因此,我想將其交給 John,讓他帶您了解結果。
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
Thanks, Randall.
謝謝,蘭德爾。
Good afternoon, everyone.
大家下午好。
Let me start with our consolidated financial summary, which is on slide seven.
讓我從第七張投影片上的綜合財務摘要開始。
As Randall said, 2013 was a solid year for our financial results.
正如 Randall 所說,2013 年是我們財務表現穩健的一年。
We grew consolidated revenues by almost 2%, thanks to strong growth in wireless, U-verse and strategic business services.
由於無線、U-verse 和策略業務服務的強勁成長,我們的綜合收入成長了近 2%。
Consolidated margins were stable, even with Project VIP expenses and record annual smartphone sales, and we grew adjusted earnings per share by 8.2% for the year.
即使有 VIP 項目費用和創紀錄的年度智慧型手機銷量,合併利潤率仍保持穩定,今年調整後每股收益成長了 8.2%。
Looking at the fourth quarter, we finished the year with an exceptionally strong earnings per share performance.
展望第四季度,我們以異常強勁的每股盈餘表現結束了這一年。
Reported EPS was $1.31.
報告每股收益為 1.31 美元。
However, when you exclude one-time adjustments, earnings per share for the quarter was $0.53, a 20% increase from a year ago.
然而,如果排除一次性調整,該季度每股收益為 0.53 美元,比去年同期增長 20%。
Adjustments include an $0.89 gain from the year-end mark-to-market change for our benefit plans.
調整包括我們的福利計劃年末按市值計算的變化帶來 0.89 美元的收益。
The gain was driven by an increase in the discount rate, as well as strong performance of our benefit plan investments.
這項收益是由貼現率上升以及我們福利計畫投資的強勁表現所推動的。
And a $0.02 gain from the sale of some American Movil's shares was also one of the adjustments.
出售部分 American Movil 股票獲得 0.02 美元的收益也是調整之一。
We also saw $0.07 of pressure from costs associated with an early debt repayment and a $0.06 charge for costs associated with employee retirements, specifically an early retirement program that Randall mentioned.
我們還看到與提前償還債務相關的成本壓力為 0.07 美元,以及與員工退休相關的成本費用為 0.06 美元,特別是蘭德爾提到的提前退休計劃。
Our solid cash flow and strong balance sheet also allowed us to be aggressive with our share buybacks.
我們穩健的現金流和強勁的資產負債表也使我們能夠積極進行股票回購。
We repurchased more than 366 million shares for the year, returning nearly $23 billion to the shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
我們全年回購了超過 3.66 億股股票,透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了近 230 億美元。
And since we began our buyback program at the beginning of 2012, we have bought back 737 million shares or about 12% of our outstanding shares.
自從我們在 2012 年初開始回購計畫以來,我們已經回購了 7.37 億股股票,約占我們已發行股票的 12%。
All-in-all, we turned in a very strong financial performance for the quarter and for the year.
總而言之,我們本季和全年的財務表現都非常強勁。
Now let's look at our operational performance for the quarter, starting with wireless.
現在讓我們來看看本季的營運業績,首先是無線業務。
Revenue and ARPU are on slide 8.
收入和 ARPU 在幻燈片 8 上。
Strong wireless revenue growth was driven by the network strength and by data-hungry smartphones and tablets.
無線收入的強勁成長是由網路實力以及需要大量數據的智慧型手機和平板電腦所推動的。
Data is now a $23 billion annualized revenue stream, and it is continuing to grow, growing at nearly 17%.
數據現已成為年化收入 230 億美元的來源,並且持續成長,成長率接近 17%。
That helped drive 4.8% service revenue growth, and total wireless revenues were up 4.5%.
這有助於推動服務收入成長 4.8%,無線總收入成長 4.5%。
Postpaid ARPU growth was strong.
後付費 ARPU 成長強勁。
For the 20th consecutive quarter, we saw total postpaid ARPU growth.
我們看到後付費 ARPU 總額連續第 20 個季度成長。
That's a record unmatched in the industry.
這是業界無與倫比的記錄。
And our postpaid phone-only ARPU increased by 3.9%, and that's growing off a much higher base than anyone else.
我們的後付費電話 ARPU 成長了 3.9%,成長基數遠高於其他任何公司。
We did have some adjustments in the quarter that bring the run rate closer to 3.7%, but either way a very impressive performance.
我們確實在本季度進行了一些調整,使運行率接近 3.7%,但無論如何,這都是非常令人印象深刻的表現。
Our phone-only ARPU includes smartphones, but also includes our lower ARPU feature phones and wireless home phones, which makes this growth even more impressive.
我們的純手機 ARPU 包括智慧型手機,但也包括 ARPU 較低的功能手機和無線家用電話,這使得這一增長更加令人印象深刻。
Now let's move to net adds and churn.
現在讓我們轉向淨添加和流失。
The details are on slide nine.
詳細資訊在第九張投影片上。
Our churn story is nothing short of exceptional.
我們的客戶流失故事堪稱異常。
In a quarter where we saw increased competitive activity, strong seasonal promotions and competitive offers targeting our postpaid base, we turned in our lowest-ever fourth-quarter postpaid churn, a record of 1.11%.
在一個季度,我們發現競爭活動有所增加,季節性促銷力度加大,並且針對我們的後付費用戶群提供競爭性優惠,我們第四季度的後付費客戶流失率創歷史新低,創紀錄的1.11 %。
We are very proud of that.
我們對此感到非常自豪。
This helped drive a solid quarter of postpaid gains with almost 600,000 net adds, including nearly 300,000 smartphone subscribers.
這幫助推動了後付費季度的強勁成長,淨增加了近 60 萬名用戶,其中包括近 30 萬名智慧型手機用戶。
And overall we added more than 500,000 branded smartphones in the quarter, both postpaid and prepaid.
整體而言,本季我們新增了超過 50 萬部品牌智慧型手機,包括後付費和預付費智慧型手機。
We also added about 440,000 branded tablets as well.
我們還增加了約 44 萬台品牌平板電腦。
Network coverage and quality is the top reason customers choose AT&T.
網路覆蓋和品質是客戶選擇 AT&T 的首要原因。
And thanks to the high performance of our 4G LTE networks, we have been very successful in attracting and keeping high-value postpaid customers.
由於我們 4G LTE 網路的高效能,我們在吸引和留住高價值後付費客戶方面非常成功。
We are also taking steps to address the more value-conscious customer.
我們也採取措施來滿足更注重價值的客戶的需求。
Competition for these customers is intense, but our network gives us an important advantage.
對這些客戶的競爭非常激烈,但我們的網路為我們提供了重要的優勢。
On the postpaid side, we have several initiatives underway, including new mobile tier value plans and other targeted promotions.
在後付費方面,我們正在進行多項舉措,包括新的行動套餐價值計劃和其他有針對性的促銷活動。
In prepaid, we have made steady progress in adding smartphone subscribers.
在預付費方面,我們在增加智慧型手機用戶方面取得了穩步進展。
In the fourth quarter alone, we added more than 230,000 prepaid smartphones to our network.
光是在第四季度,我們就在網路中增加了超過 23 萬部預付費智慧型手機。
That gives us a base of more than 2 million prepaid smartphones.
這為我們提供了超過 200 萬部預付費智慧型手機的基礎。
And ARPU for these customers is more than 70% higher than our non-smartphone prepaid base.
這些客戶的 ARPU 比我們的非智慧型手機預付費基礎高出 70% 以上。
And once the Leap transaction is approved, we will be an even better option for value-conscious consumers.
一旦 Leap 交易獲得批准,我們將成為注重價值的消費者更好的選擇。
We believe the Cricket brand on our network will be a great combination.
我們相信我們網路上的板球品牌將是一個偉大的組合。
Now let's take a look at our growing smartphone base.
現在讓我們來看看我們不斷增長的智慧型手機基礎。
Those details are on slide 10.
這些細節在幻燈片 10 上。
Smartphones continue to take a bigger share of our phone sales.
智慧型手機繼續在我們的手機銷售中佔據更大的份額。
A record 93% of our postpaid phone sales were smartphones in the fourth quarter.
第四季度,我們的後付費手機銷量中有 93% 是智慧型手機,創下歷史新高。
That increases our postpaid smartphone base by 1.2 million.
這使我們的後付費智慧型手機基數增加了 120 萬部。
For the full year, our postpaid smartphone base grew by nearly 5 million subscribers.
全年,我們的後付費智慧型手機用戶數量增加了近 500 萬。
Overall, 77% of our postpaid phone base are on smartphones, and that compares to about 70% a year ago.
整體而言,我們 77% 的後付費電話用戶使用智慧型手機,而一年前這一比例約為 70%。
Smartphone sales were strong, 7.9 million in the quarter, and data usage for smartphones continued to rise, increasing by more than 50% year over year.
智慧型手機銷售強勁,本季達到 790 萬部,智慧型手機的數據使用量持續成長,較去年同期成長超過 50%。
We have seen an incredible response to AT&T Next, especially when we introduced the new Mobile Share Value plans, and sales improved throughout the quarter.
我們看到 AT&T Next 獲得了令人難以置信的反響,特別是當我們推出新的行動共享價值計劃時,整個季度的銷售額都得到了改善。
Overall, more than 15% of all smartphone sales during the quarter were AT&T Next sales with the sales percentage in company-owned stores, much higher.
總體而言,該季度超過 15% 的智慧型手機銷量來自 AT&T Next,其中公司自營商店的銷售比例要高得多。
These strong sales reinforce our belief that focusing on what the customer wants is the right move.
這些強勁的銷售業績強化了我們的信念:關注顧客的需求是正確的舉措。
Whether it's a new device every year or the ability to take advantage of bring your own device service plans, we need to continue to focus on the customer.
無論是每年的新設備還是利用自備設備服務計劃的能力,我們都需要繼續關注客戶。
AT&T Next did impact our cash flows since we are financing the handset, but that's all right.
AT&T Next 確實影響了我們的現金流,因為我們正在為手機融資,但這沒關係。
We know these customers, and we know their credit profile.
我們了解這些客戶,也了解他們的信用狀況。
Overall, this program is a great value for both our customers and us.
總體而言,該計劃對我們的客戶和我們來說都具有巨大的價值。
In the quarter, we reached a 7.1 million of Mobile Share accounts.
本季度,我們的行動共享帳戶數量達到 710 萬個。
Those accounts include more than 21 million postpaid subscribers or about three subscribers per account.
這些帳戶包括超過 2,100 萬後付費訂閱者,或說每個帳戶大約有 3 名訂閱者。
Take rates in the high-tier data plans for both Mobile Share and pure data customers continue to be strong.
行動共享和純數據客戶的高級數據計劃的費率持續保持強勁。
In the last year, the percentage of customers on those plans has nearly doubled, growing from 13% to now 24% with about a third of the Mobile Share customers on plans of 10 Gb or higher.
去年,這些套餐的客戶比例幾乎翻了一番,從 13% 成長到目前的 24%,其中約三分之一的 Mobile Share 客戶採用 10 Gb 或更高的套餐。
At the same time, Mobile Share Value plans are attracting customers who may not need such large data buckets.
同時,行動共享價值計畫正在吸引可能不需要如此大數據量的客戶。
The new plans offer customers more savings and provide no annual service contract options, giving our existing and new customers even greater choice.
新計劃為客戶提供更多節省,並且不提供年度服務合約選項,為我們的現有和新客戶提供了更多選擇。
Now let's talk about wireless margins.
現在讓我們來談談無線利潤。
Those details are on slide 11.
這些細節在幻燈片 11 上。
Let's start by taking a look at the full year.
讓我們先回顧一下全年情況。
For 2013 our wireless EBITDA service margin was 41.3%.
2013 年,我們的無線 EBITDA 服務利潤率為 41.3%。
That is 170 basis point increase from a year ago, even though we sold more smartphones during the year.
儘管我們今年銷售了更多智慧型手機,但仍比一年前成長了 170 個基點。
There are a number of reasons for this improvement.
這種改進有很多原因。
Revenue growth was solid throughout the year thanks to our expanding smartphone base and increasing data usage.
由於我們不斷擴大的智慧型手機基礎和不斷增加的數據使用量,全年收入增長穩健。
Second, the strength of our network makes a difference.
其次,我們網路的實力發揮重要作用。
We are seeing outstanding speed and reliability performance and greater efficiencies as more and more customers operate LTE devices.
隨著越來越多的客戶使用 LTE 設備,我們看到了出色的速度和可靠性性能以及更高的效率。
More than half of our smartphone base are now on LTE-capable devices.
目前,我們一半以上的智慧型手機都使用支援 LTE 的設備。
Our new upgrade policy also added a positive impact on margins, as did strong AT&T Next sales.
我們新的升級政策也對利潤率產生了積極影響,AT&T Next 的強勁銷售也是如此。
In the fourth quarter, wireless EBITDA was nearly $6 billion, an impressive 35% increase over last year.
第四季度,無線 EBITDA 接近 60 億美元,比去年成長了 35%,令人印象深刻。
And wireless EBITDA service margin was 37.4%, also much higher than a year ago.
而無線EBITDA服務利潤率為37.4%,也遠高於一年前。
When you look at the full picture, this was a very strong wireless quarter for us.
從整體來看,這對我們來說是一個非常強勁的無線季度。
From churn to smartphone sales to margins to network performance, these solid results in a hotly competitive environment gives us confidence as we look ahead.
從客戶流失到智慧型手機銷量,再到利潤率,再到網路效能,在激烈的競爭環境中取得的這些堅實成果讓我們對未來充滿信心。
Now let me turn to our wireline story starting on slide 12.
現在讓我轉向從幻燈片 12 開始的有線故事。
U-verse finished the year just as it started, with strong subscriber gains, increasing penetration and growing revenue.
U-verse 與年初一樣結束了這一年,用戶成長強勁,滲透率不斷提高,收入也不斷成長。
In fact, U-verse helped drive consumer revenue growth of nearly 3% in the fourth quarter.
事實上,U-verse 幫助推動第四季消費者營收成長近 3%。
U-verse continued its record of strong high-speed broadband gains.
U-verse 繼續保持高速寬頻強勁成長的記錄。
We added 630,000 U-verse broadband subscribers in the fourth quarter and 2.7 million during the year.
我們在第四季增加了 63 萬 U-verse 寬頻用戶,全年增加了 270 萬用戶。
U-verse now represents more than 60% of our total broadband base.
U-verse 現在占我們寬頻基礎總量的 60% 以上。
These subscribers not only have a higher ARPU, but churn is significantly lower as well.
這些訂戶不僅擁有更高的 ARPU,而且流失率也顯著降低。
We believe we have hit a tipping point with U-verse broadband.
我們相信 U-verse 寬頻已經達到了一個臨界點。
With a growing base of U-verse subscribers, we feel confident that we can grow broadband subscribers even stronger this coming year.
隨著 U-verse 用戶基數的不斷增長,我們有信心在未來一年讓寬頻用戶變得更強大。
We also continue to excel in video.
我們在影片方面也繼續表現出色。
While some companies are excited about actually gaining customers, we added almost 200,000 subscribers in the quarter and nearly 1 million for the year.
雖然有些公司對真正獲得客戶感到興奮,但我們在本季增加了近 20 萬訂戶,全年增加了近 100 萬訂戶。
Plus, we had our lowest TV churn ever in the fourth quarter.
此外,我們在第四季度實現了有史以來最低的電視流失率。
That tells us customers not only want U-verse, but they stay with us once they get it.
這告訴我們,客戶不僅想要 U-verse,而且一旦獲得 U-verse,他們就會繼續選擇我們。
And we expect to maintain this momentum.
我們預計將保持這種勢頭。
We continue to add new features of such as TV Everywhere, which allows customers to view programming on smartphones and tablets, inside their home and out.
我們不斷添加 TV Everywhere 等新功能,讓客戶可以在家中或室外透過智慧型手機和平板電腦觀看節目。
And increased broadband speeds -- nearly two-thirds of the U-verse TV footprint can now get speeds up to 45 megabits per second.
寬頻速度也有所提高——近三分之二的 U-verse 電視覆蓋範圍現在可以達到每秒 45 兆比特的速度。
U-verse is now a $13 billion annualized revenue stream, growing at 28% year over year and makes up 57% of our total consumer revenues.
U-verse 目前的年收入來源為 130 億美元,年增 28%,占我們消費者總收入的 57%。
U-verse was a solid story from start to finish during 2013, and we expect that to continue as we expand U-verse coverage with Project VIP.
2013 年,U-verse 從頭到尾都是一個堅實的故事,我們預計隨著我們透過 Project VIP 擴大 U-verse 的覆蓋範圍,這種情況將繼續下去。
Now let's move to wireline business, which you can see on slide 13.
現在讓我們轉向有線業務,您可以在幻燈片 13 中看到。
First, let's start with some of the really good news.
首先,讓我們從一些真正的好消息開始。
Strategic business services continues to be a bigger part of business services.
策略性商業服務仍然是商業服務的重要組成部分。
Those service, products such as VPN, ethernet, cloud, hosting and other advanced IP services, now make up more than 25% of business wireline, and growth is accelerating, up more than 17% year over year.
這些服務、產品,如VPN、乙太網路、雲端、託管和其他先進的IP服務,目前佔有線業務的25%以上,且成長正在加速,較去年同期成長超過17%。
We continue to see U-verse high-speed broadband growing in the business space.
我們繼續看到 U-verse 高速寬頻在商業領域不斷成長。
Increasing speeds and broader coverage open the doors to new growth opportunities with small- and medium-sized customers.
速度的提高和覆蓋範圍的擴大為中小型客戶打開了新的成長機會之門。
We are also seeing increasing momentum in cloud and integrated service offerings.
我們也看到雲端和整合服務產品的成長勢頭不斷增強。
We are one of the top cloud providers in the world and adding scale.
我們是世界頂級的雲端供應商之一,規模不斷擴大。
For example, we already have more than an exabyte of virtualized storage.
例如,我們已經擁有超過 1EB 的虛擬化儲存。
Much of this is driven by steps we are taking to move our home business processes to the cloud.
這很大程度上是由我們正在採取的將家庭業務流程遷移到雲端的步驟所推動的。
Our goal is to be an entirely cloud-based enterprise within the next 3 to 5 years.
我們的目標是在未來3到5年內成為完全基於雲端的企業。
Our own IT operations are probably the most aggressive cloud operations around.
我們自己的 IT 營運可能是最積極的雲端運營。
So we are not just selling cloud applications, we are customers.
因此,我們不僅僅是銷售雲端應用程序,我們還是客戶。
We are users as well.
我們也是用戶。
This helps focus us on developing new cloud-based products such as [NetBond].
這有助於我們專注於開發新的基於雲端的產品,例如 [NetBond]。
NetBond helps our customers safeguard their information by extending their virtual private networks into the cloud, which functions like a normal VPN site and keeps data separate from other users' traffic.
NetBond 透過將虛擬專用網路擴展到雲端來幫助我們的客戶保護他們的訊息,其功能類似於普通的 VPN 站點,並將資料與其他使用者的流量分開。
And NetBond reduces latency by up to 50%, which means that businesses have access to their data almost instantly.
NetBond 將延遲減少了高達 50%,這意味著企業幾乎可以立即存取其資料。
We believe NetBond will drive even more growth.
我們相信 NetBond 將推動更多成長。
We already are the VPN market leader with a multibillion-dollar annual business, and we had our best fourth-quarter VPN growth in years.
我們已經成為 VPN 市場的領導者,年業務額達數十億美元,我們第四季度的 VPN 成長達到了多年來最好的水平。
These growth products helped to transform our revenue mix, but we still saw lower revenues in the quarter.
這些成長產品有助於改變我們的收入結構,但本季的收入仍然較低。
Total revenues were down 3.4% versus the year-earlier quarter, but were essentially flat sequentially.
總營收較去年同期下降 3.4%,但與上一季基本持平。
Businesses service revenues declined 2.4% year over year.
企業服務收入較去年同期下降2.4%。
Behind all this are the overall economic trends.
這一切的背後是整體經濟走勢。
The outlook is still uncertain.
前景仍不明朗。
Customers are still delaying buying decisions.
客戶仍在推遲購買決定。
Business starts lagged, though slightly better than a year ago.
業務開工落後,但略好於一年前。
And unemployment is slowly improving, but labor force participation is the lowest it has been in more than 30 years.
失業率正在緩慢改善,但勞動參與率卻處於 30 多年來的最低水準。
It's still a slow market, but we are hopeful that we will see in improving economy to get this part of the Company growing again.
這仍然是一個緩慢的市場,但我們希望經濟的改善能夠使公司的這一部分再次成長。
Now let's look at consolidated and wireline margins on slide 14.
現在讓我們來看看投影片 14 上的合併利潤率和有線利潤率。
Even with Project VIP expenses, U-verse gains and record-breaking annual smartphone sales, consolidating margins remained relatively stable.
即使考慮到 Project VIP 支出、U-verse 收益和破紀錄的年度智慧型手機銷量,合併利潤率仍然相對穩定。
Wireless margin improvements helped to offset this pressure.
無線利潤率的提高有助於抵銷這種壓力。
For the year, our adjusted consolidated margin was 18% compared to 18.2% last year.
今年,我們調整後的綜合利潤率為 18%,而去年為 18.2%。
This pressure on wireline was expected.
有線網路面臨的這種壓力是預料之中的。
Much of it is tied to Project VIP and other success-based initiatives.
其中大部分與 VIP 計畫和其他基於成功的措施相關。
We had almost 1 million new U-verse TV subscribers, and they were trailing expenses from VIP investments.
我們有近 100 萬新的 U-verse TV 用戶,他們的 VIP 投資費用落後。
And depreciation expenses were also higher.
折舊費用也更高。
We continue to take steps on the cost cutting side as well.
我們也繼續在成本削減方面採取措施。
This includes the introduction of Project Agile.
這包括引入敏捷專案。
Project Agile is a major new initiative that is transforming how the Company organizes and operates around customers to deliver a best-in-class customer experience as an all-IP, all mobile and all cloud services company.
敏捷專案是一項重大的新舉措,它正在改變公司圍繞客戶組織和營運的方式,以作為全 IP、全行動和全雲端服務公司提供一流的客戶體驗。
You see considerable opportunity to raise costs through simplifying processes, standardizing platforms and making our customer interactions effortless and efficient.
您看到了透過簡化流程、標準化平台以及使我們的客戶互動變得輕鬆高效來提高成本的巨大機會。
Randall will talk more about this initiative in just a few moments.
蘭德爾稍後將詳細討論這項措施。
Now let's move to cash flow.
現在讓我們轉向現金流。
Our summary is on slide 15.
我們的摘要位於投影片 15 上。
In 2013 cash from operations totaled nearly $35 billion.
2013 年,營運現金總額接近 350 億美元。
Capital expenditures were $21.2 million as we deployed Project VIP, and free cash flow before dividends was $13.6 billion.
我們部署 VIP 專案時的資本支出為 2,120 萬美元,股息前的自由現金流量為 136 億美元。
This was impacted somewhat by the tremendous success of AT&T Next.
這在一定程度上受到了 AT&T Next 巨大成功的影響。
We also have been very opportunistic in monetizing some of our assets.
我們在將一些資產貨幣化方面也非常投機。
This includes the tower transaction with Crown Castle, sales of some of our American Movil shares and sales of some of our real estate assets.
這包括與 Crown Castle 的塔樓交易、出售我們的一些 American Movil 股票以及出售我們的一些房地產資產。
These items generated $7 billion in cash for the year and nearly $6 billion in additional cash in the fourth quarter alone.
這些項目全年創造了 70 億美元的現金,光是第四季就創造了近 60 億美元的額外現金。
All this and free cash flow generated about $20 billion in cash during the year and strengthened our cash position.
所有這些以及自由現金流在這一年中產生了約 200 億美元的現金,增強了我們的現金狀況。
Our balance sheet remains solid.
我們的資產負債表依然穩健。
Net debt hedged up during the year.
年內淨債務避險。
However, our average affective interest rate is down compared to last year, thanks to debt financing, early repayments of debt and historically low interest rates.
然而,由於債務融資、提前償還債務和歷史低利率,我們的平均情感利率與去年相比有所下降。
And a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.73 is well below our 1.8 target and down for the third quarter, even with our Project VIP investments.
即使有我們的 VIP 項目投資,淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.73,遠低於我們 1.8 的目標,並且在第三季度有所下降。
In addition to investing in our business, we also returned substantial value to shareholders.
除了投資我們的業務外,我們還為股東回報了豐厚的價值。
For the year, we repurchased about 366 million shares for around $13 billion.
今年,我們以約 130 億美元的價格回購了約 3.66 億股股票。
We made dividend payments for the year totaling nearly $10 billion.
我們全年支付的股息總額接近 100 億美元。
This makes our total returns to shareholders for the year right at $23 billion, and in the last two years, we returned more than $45 billion, a record unmatched in the industry.
這使得我們今年為股東帶來的總回報達到了 230 億美元,而在過去兩年中,我們的回報超過了 450 億美元,創下了業內無與倫比的記錄。
Now, before I hand it back to Randall, let's take a quick look at how we delivered on 2013 guidance.
現在,在我把它交還給 Randall 之前,讓我們快速回顧一下我們是如何實現 2013 年指導的。
That's on slide 16.
這是幻燈片 16 上的內容。
So how did we do for the year?
那我們這一年的表現如何呢?
On an adjusted basis, we expected upper single digit EPS growth, continued revenue growth in wireless and consumer wireline, and stable consolidated margins, and that's what we delivered.
在調整後的基礎上,我們預計每股盈餘將實現較高個位數的成長,無線和消費者有線業務的收入將持續成長,並且綜合利潤率將保持穩定,而這正是我們所實現的。
We set out ambitious Project VIP targets, increased them during the year and still came in ahead of forecast.
我們制定了雄心勃勃的 VIP 計畫目標,並在年內提高了目標,但仍然超出了預測。
We also are excited about the Leap acquisition and how it will support our project VIP deployment.
我們也對 Leap 的收購以及它將如何支援我們的專案 VIP 部署感到興奮。
Once the deal is closed, we will take a look at how it will impact our sell-side bill plans and densifiication initiatives.
交易完成後,我們將研究它將如何影響我們的賣方帳單計劃和緻密化計劃。
We continue to generate cash both through asset monetizations and free cash flow.
我們繼續透過資產貨幣化和自由現金流產生現金。
We also took several steps to manage our debt, helping reduce the cost of debt even as we invested in future growth.
我們也採取了多項措施來管理債務,在投資未來成長的同時幫助降低債務成本。
And through it all, we remain focused on the shareholder, returning substantial value through dividends and buybacks.
自始至終,我們始終以股東為中心,透過股利和回購回報豐厚的價值。
Altogether, a solid year during a transformational time in our business.
總而言之,這是我們業務轉型時期堅實的一年。
I now will turn it back to Randall to talk to you a little bit more about that transformation.
現在我將把它轉回蘭德爾,與您更多地談論這一轉變。
Randall?
蘭德爾?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Okay.
好的。
Thanks, John.
謝謝,約翰。
I will close with just a couple of comments on what you can expect from us in 2014, and I will reiterate what we laid out when we announced Project VIP.
最後,我將僅就 2014 年對我們的期望發表幾條評論,並且我將重申我們在宣布 Project VIP 時所製定的內容。
That was that 2014 is our peak year for VIP investment.
也就是說,2014年是我們VIP投資的高峰年。
And our outlook is very consistent with that original plan.
我們的前景與最初的計劃非常一致。
We will continue to be aggressive on the network front.
我們將繼續在網路方面積極進取。
We expect to hit our LTE coverage target ahead of schedule this year.
我們預計今年將提前實現 LTE 覆蓋目標。
We also have a big effort in terms of network densification and cell sites.
我們在網路緻密化和蜂窩站點方面也做出了巨大努力。
We will further ramp our U-verse and business fiber builds.
我們將進一步加強 U-verse 和商業光纖建設。
Video, we believe, is a big growth opportunity.
我們相信,視訊是一個巨大的成長機會。
So we have a major initiative to make our network the best-in-class for video delivery for both wireline and wireless.
因此,我們採取了一項重大舉措,使我們的網路成為一流的有線和無線視訊傳輸網路。
In the longer-term, we are taking the lead in virtualizing our network to shift functionality from hardware to software.
從長遠來看,我們在網路虛擬化方面處於領先地位,將功能從硬體轉移到軟體。
And over time we believe the payoffs and operating efficiency and speed to market are going to be significant.
隨著時間的推移,我們相信回報、營運效率和上市速度將是巨大的。
In terms of our investments in growth, global data and U-verse, while they are beginning to scale to very large businesses in and of themselves, are still very early in their growth curves.
就我們對成長、全球數據和 U-verse 的投資而言,雖然它們本身已開始擴展到非常大的業務,但仍處於成長曲線的早期階段。
And the same holds for our strategic business services.
我們的策略性業務服務也是如此。
As John pointed out with the Cricket brand on top of the AT&T network, you should expect us to be disruptive in the no contract space this year.
正如 John 指出的那樣,Cricket 品牌位於 AT&T 網路之上,您應該期待我們今年在無合約空間中具有顛覆性。
We have a number of new services that will begin to move the needle this year.
我們有許多新服務將於今年開始發揮作用。
We will launch Digital Life into a number of more markets.
我們將把數位生活推向更多市場。
We've taken a leadership position in connected cars.
我們在連網汽車領域佔據了領導地位。
In fact, we already announced agreements with GM and Ford, Nissan, Audi, BMW, Tesla, and there are more to come.
事實上,我們已經宣布與通用汽車、福特、日產、奧迪、寶馬、特斯拉達成協議,而且還會有更多協議。
And as I mentioned, we have a number of new cloud security and mobile solutions for business.
正如我所提到的,我們有許多新的雲端安全和行動業務解決方案。
And in parallel, we are also reengineering how we operate.
同時,我們也在重新設計我們的營運方式。
We have a major effort this year to rearchitect our enterprise customer experience, rethinking every step end to end, to dramatically shorten our intervals.
今年我們做出了重大努力來重新建構我們的企業客戶體驗,從頭到尾重新思考每一步,以大幅縮短我們的時間間隔。
Across our business, we are driving to make 80% of our customer interactions digital and online by 2020, and Project Agile is all about streamlining operations around an all-IP cloud and mobility experience.
在我們的整個業務中,我們致力於在 2020 年之前使 80% 的客戶互動數位化和線上化,而敏捷專案就是圍繞全 IP 雲端和行動體驗簡化營運。
And as a first step, about 5600 employees took voluntary retirement in the fourth quarter.
作為第一步,第四季約有 5600 名員工自願退休。
Most of those were management employees.
其中大多數是管理人員。
We have additional Project Agile initiatives underway, which will require some investment.
我們正在進行其他敏捷專案計劃,這需要一些投資。
But we expect run rate savings in the $3 billion range by 2017.
但我們預計到 2017 年,運行率將節省 30 億美元。
If you go to slide 18, it lays out our financial expectations for 2014.
如果您查看投影片 18,它列出了我們 2014 年的財務預期。
They are very much on track with what we laid out for you when we launched Project VIP some 14 months ago, so there shouldn't be any surprises here.
他們與我們在大約 14 個月前推出 Project VIP 時為您制定的計劃非常吻合,因此這裡應該不會有任何意外。
We expect consolidated revenue growth in the 2% to 3% range.
我們預計綜合收入成長在 2% 至 3% 範圍內。
This doesn't include any impact from our planned Leap acquisition.
這不包括我們計劃收購 Leap 的任何影響。
We expect stable consolidated margins with adjusted EPS growth in the mid-single-digit range, and this does not factor in any future share buybacks.
我們預計合併利潤率將穩定,調整後每股盈餘成長將在中個位數範圍內,且這不考慮任何未來的股票回購。
And we expect cash from operations in the $32 billion range.
我們預計營運現金將達到 320 億美元。
2014 capital will be in the $21 billion range, exactly what we laid out earlier for Project VIP, with savings from our original plan offset by capital for Agile and some new network projects.
2014 年的資本將在 210 億美元的範圍內,這正是我們之前為 VIP 專案所規劃的,我們最初計劃的節省被敏捷和一些新網路專案的資本所抵消。
Again, we expect 2014 will be our peak investment year for Project VIP.
我們再次預計 2014 年將是我們 VIP 計畫的投資高峰年。
And with the stepup in cash taxes, we expect free cash flow this year in the $11 billion range with similar levels for 2015.
隨著現金稅的增加,我們預計今年的自由現金流將達到 110 億美元,與 2015 年的水準相似。
Post-VIP we expect free cash flow and dividend coverage to trend back to the historical levels.
VIP 後,我們預計自由現金流和股息覆蓋率將恢復到歷史水準。
We also expect cash from divestitures from some nonstrategic assets, and all of this is based on some rather conservative assumptions that includes US economic growth of around 2%.
我們也預期從一些非戰略資產的剝離中獲得現金,而這一切都是基於一些相當保守的假設,其中包括美國經濟成長 2% 左右。
Finally, I know everyone saw the filing we made with the UK Takeover Panel yesterday.
最後,我知道每個人都看到了我們昨天向英國收購委員會提交的文件。
I think the statement speaks for itself.
我認為這個聲明本身就說明了一切。
We've talked in the past about how we view the European market, and we don't have much to add.
我們過去已經討論過我們如何看待歐洲市場,但我們沒有太多要補充的。
Again, we are on track with and in most cases we are ahead of what we committed to you when we rolled out Project VIP.
再次強調,我們正在按計劃實現,而且在大多數情況下,我們都領先於推出 Project VIP 時向您做出的承諾。
We have a lot of opportunity ahead of us, and the initiatives we are executing have really good payoffs in terms of growth and cost structure.
我們面前有很多機會,我們正在執行的措施在成長和成本結構方面確實帶來了良好的回報。
And 2014 is going to be a very productive year for us.
2014 年對我們來說將是非常有成效的一年。
So Susan, with that, I think we are ready for questions.
蘇珊,我想我們已經準備好問問題了。
Susan Johnson - SVP, IR
Susan Johnson - SVP, IR
Thank you, Randall.
謝謝你,蘭德爾。
Tony, I think we are now ready to open it up for our Q&A session.
東尼,我想我們現在已經準備好開始問答環節了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Simon Flannery, Morgan Stanley.
(操作員指示)西蒙·弗蘭納裡(Simon Flannery),摩根士丹利。
Simon Flannery - Analyst
Simon Flannery - Analyst
Randall, just very quickly, can you just give us some color on exactly why at this point you had to file with the UK Takeover Panel?
蘭德爾(Randall),很快,您能給我們一些具體信息,說明您此時必須向英國收購委員會提交文件的具體原因嗎?
And then John, on the free cash flow, can you just give us a little bit more detail around the cash taxes, and what the impact is in 2014 and 2015, and what the CapEx is likely to be in 2015 to get to that $11 billion number?
然後約翰,關於自由現金流,您能否給我們一些關於現金稅的更多細節,以及 2014 年和 2015 年的影響,以及 2015 年達到 11 美元的資本支出可能是多少億數?
And is there any impact on working capital from the Next program as that starts to ramp this year as well?
隨著今年也開始增加,下一個計畫對營運資金是否有任何影響?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
In terms of the -- they call it a 2.8 announcement we made in the UK yesterday, anytime you get a lot of noise around any kind of M&A, it's standard procedure for the Takeover Panel to contact the parties that are being mentioned and ask him to make a declaration.
就他們稱之為我們昨天在英國發布的 2.8 公告而言,任何時候只要你聽到有關任何類型的併購的大量噪音,收購小組都會聯繫所提到的各方並詢問他,這是標準程序作出聲明。
And so we were contacted over the weekend because of a lot of press surrounding us in Europe and asked to make a declaration.
因此,由於歐洲有很多媒體圍繞著我們,我們在周末聯繫了我們,並要求我們發表聲明。
So we made the declaration we did.
所以我們做出了我們所做的聲明。
I really don't have much more to add than that.
除此之外我真的沒有更多要補充的了。
It's just a technical requirement by the Panel.
這只是專家組的技術要求。
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
Simon, on the free cash flow, I will take it from the standpoint of we are expecting that $32 billion of cash from operations and the $21 billion range on CapEx is the biggest generator.
西蒙,關於自由現金流,我將從我們預計來自營運的 320 億美元現金和 210 億美元資本支出範圍的角度來看,這是最大的創造者。
When you look at the $32 billion and you compare it to this year, the major change is a pickup in cash taxes.
當你把這 320 億美元與今年進行比較時,你會發現主要的變化是現金稅的增加。
Some of it is from our pension funding strategy that we implemented last year.
其中一些來自我們去年實施的退休金融資策略。
Some of it is from depreciation.
其中一些來自折舊。
It does incorporate continued growth in the Next program, and it does incorporate what is effectively pressure from that program.
它確實包含了下一個計劃中的持續成長,並且它確實包含了來自該計劃的有效壓力。
But that is all inclusive.
但這是全部的。
Likewise, if you look at 2015, some of the same things are happening.
同樣,如果你回顧 2015 年,也會發現一些相同的事情正在發生。
We will have certainly continued tax pressure, but we will also have growing -- we would expect to have some growing pressure from Next and some growing and strong, I should say, CapEx.
我們肯定會面臨持續的稅收壓力,但我們也會面臨越來越大的壓力——我們預期來自Next的壓力會越來越大,我應該說,資本支出也會越來越大。
But our operational improvements and our revenue growth and our profitability improvements will allow us to cover that and keep it stable, to keep us very comfortable in our coverage ratios.
但我們的營運改善、收入成長和獲利能力提高將使我們能夠涵蓋這一點並保持穩定,使我們的覆蓋率保持非常舒適。
Simon Flannery - Analyst
Simon Flannery - Analyst
So CapEx is around that $21 billion again in 2015?
那麼 2015 年資本支出又達到 210 億美元左右?
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
We are not specifically giving guidance on that, but I would tell you that in prior conversations we talked about CapEx being in the current year $21 billion for 2013 and then $20 billion and $20 billion.
我們沒有專門就此提供指導,但我想告訴您,在之前的談話中,我們談到 2013 年的資本支出為 210 億美元,然後是 200 億美元和 200 億美元。
We have upped it for Project Agile this year, and we will continue to have -- I would expect we would continue to have some Project Agile efficiency investments going forward.
今年我們提高了敏捷專案的效率,而且我們將繼續——我預計我們未來將繼續進行一些敏捷專案效率投資。
Operator
Operator
Mike McCormack, Jefferies.
麥克麥科馬克,傑弗里斯。
Mike McCormack - Analyst
Mike McCormack - Analyst
I guess it's good for the industry that the consumers are back to being in the willingness to pay for full handsets.
我認為消費者重新願意為全功能手機付費對整個產業來說是件好事。
Maybe, John, just your thought on at least in the current quarter the impact of Next on churn, and then looking through the tracking of it throughout the quarter, obviously December a very strong month.
約翰,也許您至少在當前季度考慮了 Next 對客戶流失的影響,然後查看整個季度的追蹤情況,顯然 12 月是一個非常強勁的月份。
Is there seasonality to that, or should we be thinking about -- or how should we be thinking about percentage of gross adds or upgrades as we progress through 2014?
這是否存在季節性,或者我們應該考慮——或者我們應該如何考慮 2014 年的總增加或升級百分比?
And then secondarily, your comments regarding Cricket, is there something to be read through that?
其次,您對板球的評論有什麼值得閱讀的嗎?
Meaning that some of these folks that are getting EIP contracts in the industry maybe would be better off in the Cricket type product?
這意味著在行業中獲得 EIP 合約的一些人可能會在板球類型產品中過得更好?
Or when you say shake things up, I guess I'm trying to understand what that means.
或者當你說「震動」時,我想我正在嘗試理解這意味著什麼。
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
So let me take a couple of the questions and go from there.
讓我回答幾個問題並從那裡開始。
If you look at where we were at the end of the quarter, we had about 10% of our handset sales being through the Next program.
如果你看看我們在本季末的情況,你會發現我們大約 10% 的手機銷量是透過 Next 計畫實現的。
During the fourth quarter, that grew.
在第四季度,這一數字有所增長。
For the overall fourth quarter, we had about 15% or about 1 million handsets sold under the next program, and we came out of the quarter at about 20%.
就整個第四季而言,我們在下一個計劃下售出了約 15% 或約 100 萬部手機,而本季的銷售量約為 20%。
We continue to see strong sales in the first quarter.
我們繼續看到第一季的強勁銷售。
So that's what we are dealing with with regard to Next, a very good opportunity for our customers.
這就是我們正在處理的 Next,這對我們的客戶來說是一個非常好的機會。
They like the program.
他們喜歡這個節目。
They are electing it.
他們正在選舉它。
They are choosing it, and certainly we like it.
他們選擇了它,我們當然喜歡它。
While I am confident that Next has had a positive impact on our churn, I would suggest to you that the award-winning customer service our retail stores give our customers and our really great network performance are also really significant factors in that real reduction in our churn rate in the fourth quarter.
雖然我相信 Next 對我們的客戶流失率產生了積極的影響,但我建議您,我們的零售店為客戶提供的屢獲殊榮的客戶服務以及我們出色的網路效能也是真正減少客戶流失的重要因素。第四季的流失率。
I can't point to just one item.
我不能只指出一項。
I've got to tell you that I believe it's the network performance, it's the sales efforts, the quality service and, quite frankly, the good choices, including Next, that our marketing team has put out there.
我必須告訴你,我相信這是網路效能、銷售努力、優質服務,坦白說,是我們的行銷團隊在那裡推出的不錯的選擇,包括 Next。
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
As it relates to the Leap acquisition, we have spent the last six or seven years chasing capacity in our network build.
由於與 Leap 收購相關,我們在過去的六、七年裡一直在追求網路建設的能力。
And we have been very reluctant to move down market because we have some very, very high value customers, high ARPU customers that we are ensuring that we maintain network quality and capacity there.
我們一直非常不願意向下游市場轉移,因為我們有一些非常非常高價值的客戶,高 ARPU 客戶,我們確保維持那裡的網路品質和容量。
As we make the move to LTE and as we continue to push the network build and to create capacity, it has created a whole new opportunity for us to think about the value segment and the no contract segment.
當我們轉向 LTE 並繼續推動網路建設和創造容量時,它為我們思考價值細分市場和無合約細分市場創造了全新的機會。
And as we get into the Leap acquisition, as we really study the Cricket brand, we are finding that it is a very, very strong brand.
當我們進行 Leap 收購時,當我們真正研究 Cricket 品牌時,我們發現它是一個非常非常強大的品牌。
And we really believe that at that end of the market, as you put a no contract type service on top of an AT&T network, our coverage, our quality and our performance, we are convinced there's a real opportunity to grow.
我們確實相信,在市場的這一端,當您在 AT&T 網路、我們的覆蓋範圍、我們的品質和我們的效能之上提供無合約類型的服務時,我們確信存在真正的成長機會。
We are convinced that we can grow from a couple of standpoints.
我們相信我們可以從幾個角度成長。
And that is what we have seen in terms of moving smartphones, deeper and deeper penetration of postpaid, that play has yet to be run in the prepaid segment to any meaningful degree.
這就是我們在行動智慧型手機方面所看到的情況,後付費的滲透越來越深入,但這種遊戲尚未在預付費領域發揮到任何有意義的程度。
And you should expect us to be very assertive and very aggressive to push smartphone penetration in the no contract space and to be aggressive as it relates to pricing.
您應該期望我們非常自信和積極地推動智慧型手機在無合約領域的滲透,並且在定價方面也非常積極。
We will be using a different brand.
我們將使用不同的品牌。
We can do some things that will be disruptive in the market.
我們可以做一些擾亂市場的事情。
And we are actually getting more and more excited about it the closer we get to closing in the first quarter.
事實上,隨著第一季交易的臨近,我們對此感到越來越興奮。
Mike McCormack - Analyst
Mike McCormack - Analyst
And Randall, just looking at it as a bifurcation of credit risk and understanding some balance sheet risk there as well?
蘭德爾(Randall)只是將其視為信用風險的分歧並了解其中的一些資產負債表風險?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
That's exactly what it is.
正是如此。
And also giving you the flexibility to do some things in the marketplace with a different brand that you wouldn't do with the traditional brand.
並且還使您能夠靈活地在市場上使用不同的品牌做一些傳統品牌無法做的事情。
Operator
Operator
Phil Cusick, JPMorgan.
菲爾·庫斯克,摩根大通。
Phil Cusick - Analyst
Phil Cusick - Analyst
Hey, guys.
大家好。
A couple.
一對夫婦。
One, Randall, just to follow up real quick -- in your regulatory conversations in the last week, have you learned anything new?
第一,蘭德爾,我想快速跟進——在上週的監管對話中,您學到了什麼新東西嗎?
Not necessarily about you, but of a US company's ability to buy assets in Europe, whether those are NSA issues or otherwise?
不一定是關於你,而是關於一家美國公司在歐洲購買資產的能力,無論這些是國家安全局的問題還是其他問題?
And then second, John, given the high payout ratio for 2014 and it sounds like 2015, should we assume that the days of big buybacks are pretty much over for now?
其次,約翰,考慮到 2014 年的高股息率(聽起來像 2015 年),我們是否應該假設大規模回購的日子現在已經結束了?
Is there any room to raise the leverage there?
槓桿還有進步空間嗎?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
So I was in Davos, actually, and I had an opportunity to meet with several folks that were administrations and policymakers and so forth.
事實上,我在達沃斯,我有機會會見了幾位政府和政策制定者等人士。
And my main objective for last week, as it related to those conversations, was we have had some business impacts from the NSA revelations, and they have not been inconsequential.
我上週的主要目標,因為它與這些對話相關,是我們從國家安全局的披露中產生了一些商業影響,而且它們並不是無關緊要的。
We are having customers ask us a lot of questions.
我們有客戶問我們很多問題。
We are having policymakers ask us a lot of questions, and it's affecting our ongoing business today, irrespective of anything that might relate to some M&A or whatnot.
政策制定者向我們提出了許多問題,這影響了我們今天正在進行的業務,無論是否與某些併購或其他相關。
And so I was really there to discern what was the attitude and the disposition and try to help formulate our own plans as it relates to those.
因此,我確實在那裡了解人們的態度和性格,並嘗試幫助制定與這些相關的我們自己的計劃。
And it was fortuitous that the President made his speech the Friday before.
總統上週五發表演說純屬偶然。
I think that speech was helpful in terms of the policymakers in Europe understanding where the administration here, the President, is going on metadata collection and so forth.
我認為這次演講有助於歐洲政策制定者了解這裡的政府、總統正在哪裡進行元資料收集等。
And so I would tell you it was, net-net a productive set of discussions, and I feel like we have a path just as it relates to our ongoing business operations there today.
所以我想告訴你,這是一系列富有成效的討論,我覺得我們有一條道路,就像它與我們今天正在進行的業務運營相關一樣。
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
Let me comment on your questions with regard to buybacks.
讓我評論一下您有關回購的問題。
First and foremost, I'd make the point I'm very comfortable with our payout ratios.
首先,我要指出的是,我對我們的支付比率感到非常滿意。
I feel real good about our balance sheet.
我對我們的資產負債表感覺非常好。
You can see that our debt ratios are well within line with our previous guidance, that we have been able to generate strong cash from operations.
您可以看到,我們的債務比率與我們先前的指導非常一致,我們能夠從營運中產生強勁的現金。
But, quite frankly, we have also been able to generate strong cash from asset monetizations, nonstrategic assets.
但是,坦白說,我們也能夠從資產貨幣化、非戰略資產產生大量現金。
And we still believe we have opportunities there, as the stock transition, and announced transaction would imply.
我們仍然相信我們在那裡有機會,正如股票轉型和宣布的交易所所暗示的那樣。
So I feel very comfortable not only for 2014 and 2015 with where we're at on our payout ratios.
因此,我對 2014 年和 2015 年的派息率感到非常滿意。
With that being said, our assumption is the business plan and our guidance that we gave, it was not based on additional buybacks.
話雖這麼說,我們的假設是我們給出的業務計劃和指導,而不是基於額外的回購。
We will continue to buy back opportunistically.
我們將繼續機會主義地回購。
I will tell you we have about 160 million shares left on our authorization, so that would give you a gating factor unless our board would give us more guidance.
我會告訴你,我們的授權還剩大約 1.6 億股,所以這會給你一個限制因素,除非我們的董事會給我們更多的指導。
But we feel real good about our payout ratios and where our balance sheet is.
但我們對我們的派息率和資產負債表狀況感到非常滿意。
It remains very strong.
它仍然非常強大。
Operator
Operator
John Hodulik, UBS.
約翰‧霍杜里克,瑞銀集團。
John Hodulik - Analyst
John Hodulik - Analyst
Maybe, Randall, could you comment on the competitive environment you are currently seeing in the wireless market and maybe look out to what you expect and how you expect to evolve in 2014?
Randall,您能否評論一下您目前在無線市場中看到的競爭環境,並關註一下您的期望以及您期望 2014 年如何發展?
And specifically with T-Mobile's new ETF strategy, it seems to be the first promotion that really targets family plans.
特別是 T-Mobile 的新 ETF 策略,這似乎是第一個真正針對家庭計劃的促銷活動。
And is that something that you see as more of a significant change in the competitive landscape or just more of the same promotions that we've seen in the past?
您認為這更多的是競爭格局的重大變化,還是只是我們過去看到的更多相同的促銷活動?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
As I had mentioned in my opening comments, it was a formative year for the industry.
正如我在開場白中提到的,這是該行業形成的一年。
And I would tell you what is probably most interesting to me as we look at what has played out in 2013 and carried into the first month of 2014 is the idea that our customers are demonstrating an interest, desire even, to put more of their money into the handset in exchange for lower monthly pricing.
我想告訴你,當我們回顧 2013 年以及 2014 年第一個月的情況時,我最感興趣的可能是我們的客戶表現出興趣,甚至渴望投入更多資金。進入手機以換取較低的每月定價。
And that's what you see happening in the marketplace right now.
這就是您現在在市場上看到的情況。
More and more customers are moving to the handset financing plans, picking up more of the cost of the handset with a desire to have a lower monthly rate.
越來越多的客戶轉向手機融資計劃,承擔更多的手機成本,並希望獲得更低的月費。
And so we are seeing that play itself out.
所以我們看到了這種情況的發生。
And you are seeing the whole market move there.
你會看到整個市場都轉向那裡。
All players are introducing these kind of plans, and our customers are loving it.
所有玩家都在推出此類計劃,我們的客戶也很喜歡。
You heard John talk about the take rates and how in December 20% of all our smartphone sales were on these types of arrangements.
您聽到 John 談到了接受率,以及 12 月我們所有智慧型手機銷量的 20% 是如何透過此類安排實現的。
And so we can say that's great margin opportunity.
所以我們可以說這是巨大的利潤機會。
But then you turn around and reinvesting it back into the customer in terms of better pricing in the marketplace.
但隨後你轉身將其重新投資回客戶,以在市場上獲得更好的定價。
And so that's working out very interesting.
所以這很有趣。
As it relates to the impact on competition, there's a lot of noise.
由於涉及對競爭的影響,因此存在許多噪音。
At the end of the day, we study this nine ways to Sunday, and we've made a lot of moves in the marketplace ourselves.
最終,我們到週日研究了這九種方法,並且我們自己在市場上做出了許多舉動。
And fourth-quarter churn was the lowest fourth-quarter churn we've ever experienced.
第四季的流失率是我們經歷過的最低的第四季流失率。
And it just continues to reinforce that you have to be aggressive in the marketplace.
它繼續強化了你必須在市場上保持積極進取的態度。
You have to constantly have your ear to the ground and tuned to what the customer expects.
您必須不斷傾聽並了解客戶的期望。
But you had better have a high quality network experience, both data and voice.
但您最好擁有高品質的網路體驗,包括數據和語音。
And we really, really feel good about what was accomplished in 2013 in terms of network quality.
我們對 2013 年在網路品質方面所取得的成就感到非常非常滿意。
Again, our voice quality is on par with the best in the industry, in the United States.
同樣,我們的語音品質與美國業界最好的語音品質不相上下。
And when you look at everybody else in the industry, we are running dropped call rates that are half of what the nearest competitor is running.
當你看看產業中的其他公司時,你會發現我們的掉話率是最接近的競爭對手的一半。
So competitive intensity is going to remain strong.
因此,競爭強度將保持強勁。
I have no doubt that you will see that continue.
我毫不懷疑你會看到這種情況繼續下去。
I have no doubt that you will see us continue all to modify our value propositions.
我毫不懷疑您會看到我們繼續修改我們的價值主張。
But, as I have pointed out earlier, I think where you will see us get most competitive is moving down into the value space with the Leap acquisition and using the Cricket brand.
但是,正如我之前指出的,我認為你會看到我們最具競爭力的地方是透過收購 Leap 進入價值空間並使用 Cricket 品牌。
Operator
Operator
David Barden, Bank of America.
大衛巴登,美國銀行。
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions.
感謝您回答我的問題。
Two, if I could.
兩個,如果可以的話。
First, Randall, obviously we have had a win for the carriers on the net neutrality space.
首先,蘭德爾,顯然我們在網路中立性領域為營運商贏得了勝利。
You guys were out at CES with some of your sponsored data trials, visible for the marketplace.
你們在 CES 上進行了一些贊助的數據試驗,這些試驗在市場上可見。
Obviously, Ed Whitacre started this conversation many years ago with the marketplace.
顯然,埃德·惠塔克(Ed Whitacre)多年前就開始了與市場的對話。
Could you tell us how you see the next steps unfolding, and when, if ever, we might be able to see a real monetization of this opportunity?
您能否告訴我們您如何看待下一步的進展,以及何時(如果有的話)我們能夠看到這個機會的真正貨幣化?
And then second, John, just for you on the EPS guidance, two pieces I wanted to talk about -- just one, obviously we are going to get about 2% benefit year over year from the ending share count relative to the midpoint of 2013.
第二,約翰,我想談談每股盈餘指導,有兩件事——只有一個,顯然我們將從相對於 2013 年中點的期末股票數量中獲得約 2% 的收益。
And then obviously on the Next program, we are going to get a lot more equipment revenue being booked for a fifth of the customers coming in the door than we do under the old plans.
顯然,在下一個計劃中,我們將為五分之一的客戶預訂比舊計劃更多的設備收入。
By my math, we should see roughly $1 billion more revenue dropping into the EBITDA line, dropping into the earnings line for 2014.
根據我的計算,我們應該會看到 EBITDA 線的收入增加約 10 億美元,從而進入 2014 年的獲利線。
That's going to be about another 4% or 5% benefit.
這將帶來約 4% 或 5% 的收益。
So we are already at 7% earnings per share growth year over year before we've even started to work on the business.
因此,在我們開始開展這項業務之前,我們的每股盈餘已經比去年同期成長了 7%。
Can you talk about where the core business is going to go in 2014?
能否談談2014年核心業務將走向何方?
Is it a growth year?
今年是增長年嗎?
Is it a stable year as you work on competition?
今年是你從事競爭工作的穩定的一年嗎?
What's underneath the hood for 2014?
2014 年的幕後故事是什麼?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Net neutrality -- I just kind of laughed when you made the comment about Whitacre.
網路中立——當你對惠塔克做出評論時,我只是笑了。
I thought, what was thatt, like 2002 or 2003, right?
我想,那是什麼,例如 2002 年或 2003 年,對吧?
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
A lifetime ago.
上輩子了。
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
And the industry has come a long way since then.
從那時起,這個行業已經取得了長足的進步。
And over the last couple of years, the industry came together and worked and agreed to a framework as it related to net neutrality that the FCC promulgated into rules.
在過去的幾年裡,整個產業齊心協力,共同商定了一個與網路中立性相關的框架,該框架已被 FCC 頒布為規則。
We did have this court order.
我們確實有這個法庭命令。
From our standpoint, David, that changed really nothing.
大衛,從我們的角度來看,這並沒有改變什麼。
It doesn't change any way that we will operate.
它不會改變我們的營運方式。
I really don't believe it's going to change much of what anybody in the industry will do.
我真的不相信它會改變這個行業中任何人所做的事情。
As you pointed out, we introduced our sponsored data plans, which the easiest way to articulate it is like 1-800-data, where companies may want customers to access their content, and they would be willing to pay the freight to let those customers access their content.
正如您所指出的,我們推出了贊助數據計劃,最簡單的表達方式就像 1-800 數據,公司可能希望客戶訪問他們的內容,並且他們願意支付運費來讓這些客戶訪問他們的內容。
We can't find that that violates anybody's net neutrality rules that are in place today.
我們無法發現這違反了任何人目前實施的網路中立規則。
It's perfectly voluntary.
這是完全自願的。
It's open to any company that might want to do this.
它向任何可能想要這樣做的公司開放。
You think about the kind of situations that are driving this (inaudible), and it's very interesting.
你想想是什麼情況導致了這種情況(聽不清楚),這非常有趣。
So, for example, United Health -- they have a number of young mothers who are not getting good education and training on prenatal care.
例如,聯合健康公司—他們有許多年輕母親沒有接受良好的產前護理教育和培訓。
And obviously, it's driving their healthcare costs up.
顯然,這導致他們的醫療費用上升。
United Health says we have a lot of information, a lot of data.
聯合健康說我們有很多資訊、很多數據。
We want to motivate these young women to come watch and to take advantage of it.
我們希望激勵這些年輕女性前來觀看並利用它。
And they said we would like to pay for it to make sure that there are no constraints, nothing gets in the way for these women taking advantage of this training to address their prenatal care.
他們說我們願意支付費用,以確保沒有任何限制,沒有任何事情妨礙這些婦女利用這次培訓來解決她們的產前護理問題。
And so they said we are willing to pay for that and provide motivation and incentives for these young mothers to take advantage of that.
所以他們說我們願意為此付出代價,並為這些年輕母親利用這一點提供動力和激勵。
I'm struggling to figure out what the argument against those types of services would be.
我正在努力弄清楚反對這些類型服務的論點是什麼。
So you're going to see these evolve.
所以你會看到這些的演變。
I have no doubt you'll see them scale.
我毫不懷疑你會看到它們的規模。
It's the same way the long-distance industry grew in scale.
這與長途行業規模成長的方式相同。
And I think mobile data and mobile Internet services will follow some of the same paths.
我認為行動數據和行動互聯網服務將遵循一些相同的路徑。
So stay tuned, but I don't see the court ruling on net neutrality changing anything in terms of how we operate or most anybody else in the industry, for that matter.
因此,請繼續關注,但我認為法院關於網路中立性的裁決不會改變我們或業內大多數其他人的運作方式。
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
David, on your second question, a couple of quick comments.
大衛,關於你的第二個問題,我簡單說幾句。
We are giving net guidance on EPS growth in the mid-single digits range.
我們對每股盈餘成長給出的淨指引為中個位數範圍。
You are right.
你是對的。
We will get a little lift underneath our wings from the buyback that took place in 2013.
我們將從 2013 年進行的回購中獲得一些動力。
We're not assuming anymore in [2014].
我們在 [2014] 中不再做假設。
In the wireless space, we do expect some benefits, not only from Next, but also from our 24-month upgrade cycle.
在無線領域,我們確實期望獲得一些好處,不僅來自 Next,還來自我們 24 個月的升級週期。
But I will say some of the customers on Next, while they are electing that, they are also, as Randall mentioned, electing to choose the bring your own device pricing platforms.
但我要說的是,Next 的一些客戶在選擇這一點的同時,正如蘭德爾所提到的那樣,他們也選擇了自帶設備定價平台。
And so those benefits from Next may be moving from our service revenues.
因此,Next 帶來的這些好處可能會從我們的服務收入中轉移。
You'll see a different mix of revenues with the equipment and service.
您將看到設備和服務的不同收入組合。
But we are positive about the wireless market and about continuing to expand margins.
但我們對無線市場和持續擴大利潤持樂觀態度。
On the consumer side, U-verse is doing great.
在消費者方面,U-verse做得很好。
We continue to expect to see growth.
我們繼續期望看到成長。
You saw the kind of numbers they posted on video in the fourth quarter and for the year as well as high-speed broadband, and with that additional footprint, we are optimistic there.
您看到了他們在第四季度和今年在視頻上發布的數字以及高速寬頻,並且憑藉這些額外的足跡,我們對此感到樂觀。
Business is still challenged, but strategic services are going great.
業務仍面臨挑戰,但策略服務進展順利。
The base is up to 25%.
基數高達25%。
We expect it to expand.
我們預計它會擴大。
And with that expansion should come an opportunity to expand the growth rate.
伴隨著這種擴張,應該會帶來擴大成長率的機會。
So what are the challenges?
那麼挑戰是什麼?
Well, the challenges are an overall slow economy, a lack of investment by the private sector in the US economy and, quite frankly, we still have, although we have made a lot of progress in our voice, legacy voice headwinds.
嗯,挑戰是整體經濟緩慢,私營部門對美國經濟缺乏投資,而且坦白說,儘管我們在聲音方面取得了很大進展,但我們仍然面臨著遺留的聲音逆風。
And we've brought that from what it was in 2011, about 22% of our revenue base is now down to 17% and, in the fourth quarter, down to 16%.
我們從 2011 年的情況來看,我們營收基礎的約 22% 現在下降到了 17%,第四季下降到了 16%。
We still have to overcome those challenges in a low employment, slow economy environment.
我們仍必須在就業率低、經濟緩慢的環境中克服這些挑戰。
When you put that altogether, we are optimistic about the year, but we are at that mid-single digit guidance.
總而言之,我們對今年持樂觀態度,但我們的指引處於中個位數。
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
David, I would just add on that if we can get some type of US economic growth in that 3% to 4% range, it changes the equation for a lot of us.
大衛,我想補充一點,如果我們能夠實現某種類型的美國經濟成長在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內,它將改變我們許多人的方程式。
And I'm hopeful -- I'm not yet optimistic, but I'm hopeful.
我充滿希望──我還不樂觀,但我充滿希望。
And you can assume that we, AT&T and the business community in general, are going to be pushing an agenda.
您可以假設我們、AT&T 和整個商界將推動一項議程。
I hope to hear the President speak on several of these issues tonight -- first and foremost, business tax reform.
我希望今晚能聽到總統就其中幾個問題發表講話——首先是營業稅改革。
I just can't think of anything that would move this needle faster and to a greater extent than business tax reform.
我想不出還有什麼比營業稅改革能更快、更大程度地推動這項進程。
And I do believe the administration and Congress are all supportive.
我確實相信政府和國會都會支持。
Here's an area where everybody has coalesced, and it seems like it's ripe for getting done.
這是一個每個人都團結起來的領域,而且看起來完成任務的時機已經成熟。
Trade is obviously huge and immigration reform.
貿易顯然是巨大的,移民改革也是。
Everybody is talking about these.
每個人都在談論這些。
Everybody in Congress and the administration is expressing a desire and a need to get this done.
國會和政府中的每個人都表達了完成這項工作的願望和需求。
If you could just get a couple of these done, I think it takes this 2% to a 3% plus growth profile, and that does change our view of this as well.
如果你能完成其中的幾個,我認為這需要 2% 到 3% 以上的成長,這也確實改變了我們對此的看法。
Operator
Operator
Joe Mastrogiavanni, Credit Suisse.
喬·馬斯特羅賈瓦尼,瑞士信貸。
Joe Mastrogiavanni - Analyst
Joe Mastrogiavanni - Analyst
John, you have been able to find opportunities to monetize some non-core assets.
約翰,您已經找到了將一些非核心資產貨幣化的機會。
Do you see any additional opportunities as we move forward, and how should we think about the use of the capital from these type of transactions?
隨著我們的前進,您是否看到了任何其他機會?我們應該如何考慮使用此類交易的資金?
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
First and foremost, we are always looking for opportunities.
首先,我們一直在尋找機會。
The most recent example of that was that announcement of the Southern New England Telephone transaction at $2 billion, a transaction we expect to close at the end of the year.
最近的一個例子是宣布以 20 億美元收購新英格蘭南部電話公司的交易,我們預計該交易將於今年年底完成。
I will tell you we will continue to look at things like real estate, like we did last year, at other opportunities.
我會告訴你,我們將繼續關注房地產等領域,就像我們去年所做的那樣,尋找其他機會。
In a Company of our size with a $0.25 trillion balance sheet and a company that has the history, a 100-year-old-plus company, we have opportunities.
對於像我們這樣規模、擁有 25 兆美元資產負債表、擁有 100 多年歷史的公司來說,我們有機會。
Now, we will continue to search those out.
現在,我們將繼續尋找這些內容。
And as some of the economics on real estate and other things improve, we are optimistic about those.
隨著房地產和其他方面的一些經濟狀況的改善,我們對此感到樂觀。
With that being said, we are going to keep our balance sheet strong like we always have.
話雖如此,我們將像往常一樣保持強勁的資產負債表。
We are going to keep our credit metrics strong, as we have, and we are going to be opportunistic with the use of that cash.
我們將一如既往地保持強勁的信用指標,並且我們將抓住機會利用這些現金。
We feel good about where we are at, feel good about how we have treated our shareholders and our ability to continue to keep them in the forefront as we invest for our customers and our employees.
我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意,對我們對待股東的方式以及我們在為客戶和員工投資時繼續讓他們走在前列的能力感到滿意。
Joe Mastrogiavanni - Analyst
Joe Mastrogiavanni - Analyst
And do you think this could maybe give you an opportunity to ramp some of those buybacks?
你認為這可能會給你一個機會來增加其中一些回購嗎?
We have seen it slow over the last couple quarters.
在過去的幾個季度中,我們看到它的成長速度緩慢。
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
Well, certainly all of those things will be taken into account as we make those decisions.
嗯,當然,我們在做出這些決定時會考慮所有這些事情。
But I do want to make sure I'm clear on the guidance that for next year, our EPS guidance did not assume a rampup in the economy and did not assume any buybacks.
但我確實想確保我對明年的指引很清楚,我們的每股盈餘指引沒有假設經濟成長,也沒有假設任何回購。
And as we've said before, we are going to be opportunistic with our buybacks and make sure that they are done from a position of strength, as we have been doing, as we continue to remain with a strong balance sheet.
正如我們之前所說,我們將在回購方面採取機會主義態度,並確保回購是在強勢地位下進行的,就像我們一直在做的那樣,因為我們將繼續保持強勁的資產負債表。
Operator
Operator
Adam Ilkowitz, Nomura.
亞當·伊爾科維茨,野村證券。
Adam Ilkowitz - Analyst
Adam Ilkowitz - Analyst
Just one question on the balance sheet side.
只是資產負債表方面的一個問題。
You had made a move on the pension plan to fully fund that on the preferred equity contribution, if you could.
如果可以的話,您已經對退休金計劃採取了行動,以透過優先股繳款全額資助該計劃。
And then on the wireless side, the postpaid gross additions, I know that this is a tough quarter with some of the moves that were going on.
然後在無線方面,後付費總增加量,我知道這是一個艱難的季度,一些舉措正在發生。
But I was wondering if, on the high-end postpaid side, you are looking to accelerate sales in any way.
但我想知道,在高端後付費方面,您是否希望以任何方式加速銷售。
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
So first and foremost, with regard to the pension plan funding, we continue to work with the Department of Labor for an official approval.
因此,首先,關於退休金計劃資金,我們繼續與勞工部合作以獲得正式批准。
That process continues to go well.
這個過程繼續順利進行。
For our purposes, as we had filed and we publicly stated, we have made the contribution.
為了我們的目的,正如我們已提交並公開聲明的那樣,我們已經做出了貢獻。
We did that in September of last year.
我們去年九月就這麼做了。
And when you look at our audited pension financial statements this year, they will be essentially fully funded.
當你查看我們今年經過審計的退休金財務報表時,你會發現它們基本上是全額資助的。
They will be at the 99.8% or 100.2% funding.
他們將獲得 99.8% 或 100.2% 的資金。
So that is going well.
所以進展順利。
We do not have an official ruling yet from the DOL, but we are still very optimistic about it.
我們還沒有得到勞工部的正式裁決,但我們仍然對此感到非常樂觀。
And, quite frankly, I will tell you I am complimentary about the work and the way we have been respected by the individuals at the Department of Labor.
而且,坦白說,我會告訴你,我對這項工作以及我們受到勞工部個人尊重的方式表示讚賞。
They have been good to work with.
他們合作得很好。
With regard to gross additions and our wireless, we are always looking to be competitive, and we are always looking for opportunities to continue to grow what has been just a great business for us.
關於總增量和我們的無線業務,我們一直在尋求競爭力,並且一直在尋找機會繼續發展對我們來說一直是一項偉大的業務。
As Randall said, we are continuing to respond not just to competition but what our customers want.
正如蘭德爾所說,我們不僅要繼續應對競爭,還要滿足客戶的需求。
And we will continue to focus on offerings and products that allow us to do that.
我們將繼續專注於使我們能夠做到這一點的產品和服務。
I will tell you that we are looking at sustainable growth, profitable growth, growth that gets for both us and the customers, not growth that does not make economic sense long-term.
我會告訴你,我們正在尋找可持續成長、獲利成長、對我們和客戶都有好處的成長,而不是沒有長期經濟意義的成長。
Operator
Operator
Michael Rollins, Citi Investment.
邁克爾羅林斯,花旗投資。
Michael Rollins - Analyst
Michael Rollins - Analyst
First, for Randall, if you go back to your page 6 diagram, how much of your strategy do you want to be the enabler of these applications with your network versus outrightly owning these applications that pale when you compare it to the a la carte alternative?
首先,對於蘭德爾來說,如果您回到第6 頁的圖表,您希望在多大程度上通過您的網絡成為這些應用程序的推動者,而不是完全擁有這些應用程序,當您將其與按菜單點菜的替代方案進行比較時,這些應用程式就顯得蒼白無力?
And John, if I can throw out a question, back on the dividend coverage, how should investors be thinking about the coverage aspirations that AT&T has on a few-year view, and how should they think about how much comes from growth in revenue or cash flow from operations versus lowering the CapEx over time?
約翰,如果我能提出一個問題,回到股息覆蓋率,投資者應該如何考慮 AT&T 在幾年內的覆蓋率願望,以及他們應該如何考慮有多少來自收入增長或股息增長。來自營運的現金流還是隨著時間的推移降低資本支出?
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Randall Stephenson - Chairman & CEO
Michael, on Enabler versus owning the end-user or the finished service, the answer to the question is yes and it depends.
Michael,關於啟動器與擁有最終用戶或成品服務,問題的答案是肯定的,這取決於情況。
As you think about LTE and cloud capabilities, there are some where we will take it all the way through to the finished service.
當您考慮 LTE 和雲端功能時,我們將在某些方面將其應用到最終的服務。
A classic example of that would be home security and home automation, the connected home.
一個典型的例子是家庭安全和家庭自動化,即互聯家庭。
That is a finished service that we are monetizing at the retail level.
這是我們在零售層面貨幣化的成品服務。
As you think about our NetBond product, we are enabling other people via APIs and capabilities to monetize through us, providing a secure environment for cloud services.
當您想到我們的 NetBond 產品時,我們正在透過 API 和功能使其他人能夠透過我們獲利,從而為雲端服務提供安全的環境。
By that same token, we have our own cloud services out there that we are selling at the retail level as well.
出於同樣的原因,我們擁有自己的雲端服務,並且也在零售層面銷售。
You can think about in terms of health services.
你可以從健康服務方面來考慮。
We are opening up APIs, allowing companies to come and put their devices and their applications and use our network services to accommodate that.
我們正在開放 API,允許公司來放置他們的設備和應用程序,並使用我們的網路服務來適應這一點。
We think this is a rather sizable opportunity.
我們認為這是一個相當大的機會。
Payments, mobile payments -- we are working with a JV, Isis, where Verizon and T-Mobile our partners of that JV.
支付、行動支付——我們正在與一家合資企業 Isis 合作,Verizon 和 T-Mobile 是該合資企業的合作夥伴。
That is a finished service.
這就是一個完成的服務。
So it's going to cover the gamut.
所以它將涵蓋整個範圍。
We think the opportunities are really large.
我們認為機會確實很大。
The connected car is probably going to be both.
連網汽車可能兩者兼而有之。
There are going to be subscribers who the car is like an additional device.
將會有一些訂戶將汽車視為附加設備。
They add on to their data bucket.
他們添加到他們的數據桶中。
But the auto manufacturers will look at us as a platform, and they will sell finished services in the car through our connected capability as well.
但汽車製造商會將我們視為一個平台,他們也將透過我們的連網能力銷售汽車成品服務。
So, again, the answer to your question is yes, all of the above.
所以,再一次,你的問題的答案是肯定的,以上都是。
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
With regard to the dividend coverage, once again, let me reiterate we feel very comfortable about the dividend coverage for 2014 and 2015.
關於股利覆蓋率,我再次重申,我們對 2014 年和 2015 年的股利覆蓋率感到非常滿意。
But with the continuing revenue growth, with the opportunity that the VIP network platform provides us not only for products and services in revenue but, quite frankly, for efficiency through Project Agile, we believe that you will see us trend fairly quickly to more historic levels of dividend coverage.
但隨著收入的持續成長,VIP 網路平台不僅為我們提供收入方面的產品和服務,而且坦白說,透過敏捷專案提高效率,我們相信您會看到我們很快達到歷史水平。股息覆蓋率。
And, quite frankly, I'm opportunistic that we can get the benefit of that.
而且,坦白說,我認為我們可以從中受益。
I think that's a mix of efficiency from the payoff from Project VIP and high-quality IP networks, as well as the revenue growth that comes from those products.
我認為這是 Project VIP 和高品質 IP 網路回報的效率以及這些產品帶來的收入成長的結合。
Susan Johnson - SVP, IR
Susan Johnson - SVP, IR
Tony, I think we have got time for just one more question.
東尼,我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Amir Rozwadowski, Barclays.
阿米爾·羅茲瓦多夫斯基,巴克萊銀行。
Amir Rozwadowski - Analyst
Amir Rozwadowski - Analyst
Thank you very much, and good afternoon, folks.
非常感謝你們,大家下午好。
On the churn front, certainly you reported the lowest fourth-quarter postpaid churn coming out of you folks.
在客戶流失方面,你們報告的第四季後付費客戶流失率是最低的。
Given some of the recent initiatives, in part launched by you folks during the quarter, for carriers to absorb ETF fees, should we expect your postpaid churn and perhaps the industry's, for that matter, to go up here, given what seems to be more increased flexibility to shift between competitors?
鑑於最近採取的一些舉措(部分是由你們在本季度推出的,要求運營商吸收ETF 費用),我們是否應該預期您的後付費客戶流失率以及行業的客戶流失率會上升,因為考慮到似乎更多提高在競爭對手之間轉移的彈性?
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
Good question.
好問題。
Thanks for that.
感謝那。
Let me give you a couple of comments.
讓我給你一些評論。
First of all, our churn improvements were not just in our wireless business, and we are very proud of those.
首先,我們的客戶流失率改善不僅體現在我們的無線業務中,我們對此感到非常自豪。
But I need to point to you that we had really great performance in U-verse churn and consumer video churn.
但我需要指出的是,我們在 U-verse 流失和消費者視訊流失方面表現非常出色。
So we are really pleased with churn and an overall customer satisfaction with this network quality we have.
因此,我們對客戶流失率以及客戶對我們網路品質的整體滿意度感到非常滿意。
Secondly, I will tell you that when people talk about things like forwarding ratios and offers for ETF, the real measure of a network and the real measure of customer satisfaction is churn.
其次,我會告訴你,當人們談論諸如 ETF 的轉發率和報價之類的事情時,網路的真正衡量標準和客戶滿意度的真正衡量標準是流失率。
Forwarding is -- forwarding issues or ETF issues are a subset of that.
轉發是-轉發問題或 ETF 問題是其中的一個子集。
Historically about a third of our customers who made a change forwarded their numbers.
從歷史上看,大約有三分之一進行更改的客戶會轉發他們的號碼。
About two-thirds didn't.
大約三分之二的人沒有。
And so when you have unusual and sometimes uneconomic offers to pay someone's ETF, you may shift forwarding ratios, but that may not have any change to the total churn picture.
因此,當您收到不尋常且有時不經濟的支付某人 ETF 的報價時,您可能會改變轉發比率,但這可能不會對整體流失情況產生任何改變。
It's just the difference between those customers who made a change with or without forwarding.
這只是那些進行更改(有轉發或沒有轉發)的客戶之間的差異。
Well, we certainly have a competitive environment, and we are certainly going to keep our eye on the ball and make sure that we continue to respond to what customers want in a sustainable process.
嗯,我們當然有一個競爭環境,我們當然會密切關注並確保我們繼續在可持續的過程中滿足客戶的需求。
But we think those are the driving force, those choice matters are the driving issues, not necessarily just one ETF offer or another.
但我們認為這些是驅動力,這些選擇問題是驅動問題,而不一定只是一種或另一種 ETF 報價。
Adam Ilkowitz - Analyst
Adam Ilkowitz - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
That's very helpful.
這非常有幫助。
And then one last question, if I may, on the release from yesterday.
如果可以的話,最後一個問題是關於昨天發布的。
Has anything changed in terms of your view on the regional market outlook for Europe over the longer term with respect to the potential opportunity for mobile data for someone who ops to invest in the region?
對於打算在該地區投資的人來說,行動數據的潛在機會方面,您對歐洲區域市場長期前景的看法有什麼變化嗎?
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
John Stephens - SEVP & CFO
No.
不。
In our view, Europe hasn't changed at all.
我們認為,歐洲根本沒有改變。
So with that, let me take this moment to thank all of you for being on the call with us today.
因此,讓我藉此機會感謝大家今天與我們通話。
We closed the year with a solid performance, a solid quarter, a solid year.
我們以穩健的業績、穩健的季度和穩健的一年結束了這一年。
Our growth platforms are going strong.
我們的成長平台正在變得強大。
Our wireless network is best-in-class, and our capital structure is solid.
我們的無線網路是一流的,我們的資本結構也很穩固。
And, as Randall mentioned, we are positioned well for 2014, focused on growth.
而且,正如 Randall 所提到的,我們為 2014 年做好了充分準備,並專注於成長。
We have a solid, achievable plan that will help us get there.
我們有一個可靠的、可實現的計劃來幫助我們實現這一目標。
Thanks, again, for being on the call.
再次感謝您接聽電話。
And, as always, thank you for your interest in AT&T.
一如既往,感謝您對 AT&T 的關注。
Have a good evening.
祝你晚上愉快。
Operator
Operator
And, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today.
女士們先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。
We do thank you for your participation and for using AT&T's Executive Teleconference.
我們衷心感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 的高階主管電話會議。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連線。