西南能源 (SWN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Southwestern Energy's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Management will open the call for a question-and-answer session following prepared remarks.

早上好，女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎來到西南能源 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。管理層將在準備好的評論後開啟問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded.

（接線員說明）此通話正在錄音中。

I will now turn the call over to Brittany Raiford, Southwestern Energy's Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給西南能源公司投資者關係總監 Brittany Raiford。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Southwestern Energy's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Bill Way, Chief Executive Officer; Clay Carrell, Chief Operating Officer; and Carl Giesler, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到西南能源公司 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Bill Way； Clay Carrell，首席運營官；和首席財務官 Carl Giesler。

Before we get started, I'd like to point out that many of the comments we make during this call are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties affecting outcomes. Many of these are beyond our control and are discussed in more detail in the risk factors and the forward-looking statements sections of our annual report and quarterly reports and filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Although we believe the expectations expressed are based on reasonable assumptions, they are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results or developments may differ materially, and we are under no obligation to update them.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，我們在本次電話會議中發表的許多評論都是前瞻性陳述，涉及影響結果的風險和不確定性。其中許多是我們無法控制的，在我們的年度報告和季度報告的風險因素和前瞻性陳述部分中有更詳細的討論，並已提交給美國證券交易委員會。儘管我們認為所表達的預期是基於合理的假設，但它們並不是對未來業績的保證。實際結果或發展可能存在重大差異，我們沒有義務更新它們。

We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measures we use, a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release available on our website.

我們還可以參考一些非 GAAP 財務措施，這有助於促進跨時期和與同行的比較。對於我們使用的任何非 GAAP 衡量標準，可以在我們網站上發布的收益報告中找到與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬。

I will now turn the call over to Bill Way.

我現在將把電話轉給 Bill Way。

Thank you, Brittany, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today. At Southwestern Energy, our approach to sustainable value creation is clear and consistent: apply capital and cost discipline to a portfolio advantaged assets in the 2 premier natural gas basins in the United States. We are focused on large-scale core Tier 1 natural gas and gas liquid assets where we can leverage our operating and commercial strength and safely and responsibly deliver lower carbon natural gas to premium markets and generate superior economic value for our shareholders.

謝謝你，布列塔尼，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入。在 Southwestern Energy，我們創造可持續價值的方法清晰且一致：將資本和成本紀律應用於美國 2 個主要天然氣盆地的投資組合優勢資產。我們專注於大型核心一級天然氣和氣液資產，我們可以利用我們的運營和商業實力，安全、負責任地向高端市場提供低碳天然氣，並為我們的股東創造卓越的經濟價值。

Southwestern Energy's strong first quarter performance reflects the quality of our dual-basin scale, portfolio optionality and differentiated market access. We delivered above-target operational results with production at the high end of guidance and generated approximately $100 million of free cash flow to repay debt, consistent with the priority of debt reduction in our disciplined capital allocation strategy.

Southwestern Energy 第一季度的強勁表現反映了我們的雙盆地規模、投資組合可選性和差異化市場准入的質量。我們實現了高於目標的經營業績，生產處於指導的高端，並產生了約 1 億美元的自由現金流來償還債務，這與我們嚴格的資本配置戰略中減少債務的優先事項一致。

Additionally, we are driving improvement in capital efficiency. In the first quarter, we continued to improve cycle times, yielding approximately 100 additional producing days during the quarter. Our strategic supply chain sourcing group has been successful in offsetting a portion of the inflationary cost pressure we expected at the beginning of this year. These efforts, in addition to our continued capital efficiency improvement drive, allows us to optimize our capital spend to align with cash flow while minimizing impact to both production this year and the ongoing productive capacity of our business going forward.

此外，我們正在推動資本效率的提高。在第一季度，我們繼續縮短週期時間，本季度增加了大約 100 個生產日。我們的戰略供應鏈採購團隊已成功抵消了我們在今年年初預計的部分通脹成本壓力。這些努力，加上我們持續提高資本效率的努力，使我們能夠優化我們的資本支出以與現金流保持一致，同時最大限度地減少對今年生產和我們業務未來持續生產能力的影響。

We are increasingly confident that the high service cost environment will continue to subside over the coming quarters, further strengthening our long-term free cash flow outlook.

我們越來越有信心高服務成本環境將在未來幾個季度繼續消退，進一步加強我們的長期自由現金流前景。

Despite the near-term commodity price weakness due to relatively high inventory levels following a record warm winter, we continue to see strong structural support for natural gas. On the supply side, U.S. production has remained essentially flat since late last year, and we have seen and expect to continue to see a decline in the gas-focused rig account and associated frac fleets. We believe that near-term activity reduction will result in lower natural gas production this year, further strengthening the longer-term fundamental outlook.

儘管由於創紀錄的暖冬過後相對較高的庫存水平導致近期大宗商品價格疲軟，但我們繼續看到對天然氣的強勁結構性支撐。在供應方面，自去年底以來，美國的產量基本持平，我們已經看到並預計將繼續看到以天然氣為重點的鑽井平台和相關壓裂船隊的下降。我們認為，近期活動減少將導致今年天然氣產量下降，從而進一步加強長期基本面前景。

On the demand side, the freeport -- with freeport back at full capacity, LNG exports have returned to record levels of approximately 14.6 Bcf per day, supplementing persistently strong power burn. Flow assurance to markets of our choice is a critical pillar of our strategy. We have transportation agreements in place to deliver 65% of our total natural gas production to the growing Gulf Coast demand center, where we are currently the largest supplier of natural gas directly to LNG facilities at 1.5 Bcf a day.

在需求方面，自由港——隨著自由港恢復滿負荷運轉，液化天然氣出口已恢復到每天約 14.6 Bcf 的創紀錄水平，補充了持續強勁的電力消耗。我們選擇的市場的流量保證是我們戰略的重要支柱。我們簽訂了運輸協議，將我們天然氣總產量的 65% 輸送到不斷增長的墨西哥灣沿岸需求中心，我們目前是那裡最大的天然氣供應商，每天以 1.5 Bcf 的速度直接向 LNG 設施供應天然氣。

With Port Arthur LNG reaching FID last month, we now see nearly 9 Bcf per day of new LNG export capacity that is in progress and with some starting to come online as early as late this year. Our favorable access to the Gulf Coast positions Southwestern Energy to supply growing demand from both Haynesville and Appalachia. Given this positioning, we continue to receive strong interest and remain in active discussions for further LNG supply agreements, including proposals with international index pricing.

隨著亞瑟港液化天然氣上個月達到 FID，我們現在看到每天近 9 Bcf 的新液化天然氣出口能力正在進行中，其中一些最早在今年年底開始上線。我們通往墨西哥灣沿岸的便利通道使西南能源公司能夠滿足海恩斯維爾和阿巴拉契亞不斷增長的需求。鑑於這一定位，我們繼續收到濃厚的興趣，並繼續積極討論進一步的液化天然氣供應協議，包括採用國際指數定價的提案。

As we shared in our guidance in February, we adjusted activity in response to lower long near-term natural gas prices by removing capital from our program and increasing our level of liquids-rich development this year. Guided by our disciplined capital allocation strategy and our priority of funding development within cash flow, we continue to moderate our planned activity. These prudent adjustments are primarily focused on decreasing dry gas completion activity, including releasing a frac fleet in Haynesville, while maintaining our higher liquids-rich activity level in West Virginia and Ohio.

正如我們在 2 月份的指導中所分享的那樣，我們通過從我們的計劃中撤資並提高我們今年的富含液體的開發水平來調整活動以應對較低的長期近期天然氣價格。在我們嚴格的資本分配策略和我們在現金流中優先發展資金的指導下，我們繼續調整我們的計劃活動。這些審慎的調整主要集中在減少干氣完井活動，包括在海恩斯維爾釋放壓裂車隊，同時保持我們在西弗吉尼亞州和俄亥俄州較高的富含液體的活動水平。

This capital and operational flexibility highlights the strategic value of the optionality within both our development plan and our asset portfolio as well as the logistical agility of our vertically integrated business model. With this flexibility, we can quickly respond to commodity price signals throughout the year while preserving the productive capacity of our business going forward. The highly successful Haynesville integration and first year results clearly support confidence in our ability to execute on the company's multiyear strategy to create long-term shareholder value. We continue to capture the tangible benefits of our larger-scale dual-basin portfolio and are well positioned to capitalize on the strong long-term fundamental outlook for natural gas.

這種資本和運營靈活性突出了我們的發展計劃和資產組合中可選性的戰略價值，以及我們垂直整合業務模式的物流靈活性。憑藉這種靈活性，我們可以在全年快速響應商品價格信號，同時保持我們未來業務的生產能力。非常成功的 Haynesville 整合和第一年的業績顯然支持了我們執行公司多年戰略以創造長期股東價值的能力的信心。我們繼續從我們更大規模的雙盆地投資組合中獲得實實在在的好處，並準備好利用天然氣強勁的長期基本面前景。

I'll now turn the call over to Clay for some additional operational updates.

我現在將電話轉給 Clay 以獲取一些額外的操作更新。

Thank you, Bill, and good morning. The team started the year strong with first quarter production at the high end of guidance. Well performance and cycle time improvements in both Appalachia and Haynesville drove this outperformance. In total, we reported 411 Bcfe of net production or 4.6 Bcfe per day, including 3.9 Bcf per day of natural gas and 107,000 barrels per day of liquids.

謝謝你，比爾，早上好。該團隊今年開局強勁，第一季度的產量處於指導的高端。阿巴拉契亞和海恩斯維爾的良好性能和周期時間改進推動了這一出色表現。總的來說，我們報告了 411 Bcfe 的淨產量或每天 4.6 Bcfe，包括每天 3.9 Bcf 的天然氣和每天 107,000 桶液體。

We placed 36 wells to sales in the first quarter. In Appalachia, we placed 13 wells to sales with an average lateral length of just under 15,000 feet. This included 11 wells in the super rich Marcellus and 2 in the dry gas Marcellus. Notably, we placed to sales our first pad of Monroe County, Ohio super rich Marcellus wells, which are performing in line with expectations and is confirming its competitiveness with our West Virginia super rich Marcellus acreage.

我們在第一季度銷售了 36 口井。在阿巴拉契亞，我們銷售了 13 口平均橫向長度略低於 15,000 英尺的井。這包括超級豐富的 Marcellus 中的 11 口井和乾氣 Marcellus 中的 2 口井。值得注意的是，我們出售了我們位於俄亥俄州門羅縣的第一個超級富礦 Marcellus 油井，其表現符合預期，並證實了其與西弗吉尼亞州超級富礦 Marcellus 油田的競爭力。

Since we acquired Montage in 2020, we have been successfully developing our Utica dry gas inventory. This year's addition of liquids-rich activity to the development plan in Ohio further illustrates the depth, quality and commodity optionality within our Appalachia portfolio.

自 2020 年收購蒙太奇以來，我們一直在成功開發尤蒂卡乾氣庫存。今年在俄亥俄州的開發計劃中增加了富含液體的活動，進一步說明了我們阿巴拉契亞投資組合的深度、質量和商品選擇性。

In Haynesville, the team placed 23 wells to sales, including 15 in the Middle Bossier and 8 in the Haynesville with an average lateral length of approximately 8,200 feet. The strong initial production rates we saw in our first year in the Haynesville have continued with an average rate of 35 million cubic feet per day for wells placed to sales in the first quarter.

在 Haynesville，該團隊共銷售了 23 口井，其中 15 口位於 Middle Bossier，8 口位於 Haynesville，平均橫向長度約為 8,200 英尺。我們在 Haynesville 的第一年看到的強勁初始生產率在第一季度繼續以平均每天 3500 萬立方英尺的速度銷售。

On the operational efficiencies front, we are on track for our anticipated cycle time improvements. In our first year of operations in the Haynesville, we delivered 10% improvements to both drilling and completed footage per day and expect a similar 10% improvement this year. During the quarter, completion efficiencies drove accelerated turn-in lines, resulting in 3 more wells to sales and additional producing days, which contributed to our production performance.

在運營效率方面，我們正朝著預期的周期時間改進邁進。在我們在 Haynesville 運營的第一年，我們每天的鑽井和完工進尺都提高了 10%，預計今年也會有類似的 10% 的提高。在本季度，完井效率推動了交產線的加速，導致銷售井數增加了 3 口，生產天數增加，這對我們的生產業績做出了貢獻。

In the first quarter, we saw positive signs of inflation moderation. Our team is actively pursuing cost reductions while maintaining supply security. Supply and demand for OCTG has balanced with cost and availability clearly improved versus last year. On the completion side, we've also seen softening on frac horsepower cost. With these tailwinds, we are confident in our plan to drive well costs down throughout the year, especially in the Haynesville.

在第一季度，我們看到了通脹放緩的積極跡象。我們的團隊在保持供應安全的同時積極尋求降低成本。 OCTG 的供需平衡，成本和可用性與去年相比明顯改善。在完工方面，我們還看到壓裂馬力成本有所下降。有了這些順風，我們對全年降低油井成本的計劃充滿信心，尤其是在海恩斯維爾。

As Bill mentioned, we are optimizing planned activity to align capital investment with expected annual cash flow at current strip prices. As a result, we expect to invest near the low end of our $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion annual capital guidance range with cost inflation and capital efficiency improvements complementing activity reductions. We are delaying completion activities in our dry gas areas, including the release of an additional frac fleet in Haynesville beginning in mid-May and the release of a frac fleet in Pennsylvania earlier than planned.

正如 Bill 提到的，我們正在優化計劃活動，以使資本投資與按當前帶材價格計算的預期年度現金流量保持一致。因此，我們預計將在我們 22 億美元至 25 億美元的年度資本指導範圍的低端附近進行投資，成本膨脹和資本效率提高補充活動減少。我們正在推遲乾氣區域的完工活動，包括從 5 月中旬開始在海恩斯維爾投放更多的壓裂船隊，以及比計劃提前投放賓夕法尼亞州的壓裂船隊。

We expect these activity adjustments to result in second quarter capital spend slightly lower than the first quarter with most of the capital reduction occurring in the second half of the year.

我們預計這些活動調整將導致第二季度資本支出略低於第一季度，大部分資本減少發生在下半年。

We have built flexibility into the program to add back this activity later in the year should prices or our expected cash flow improve. If this activity is not phased back in, we would expect to have 10 to 15 less dry gas completions and wells to sales than our current well count guidance. The completion delays are expected to result in a modest production impact in the second half of the year and a flatter quarterly production profile. Operationally, we have started 2023 strong and are focused on continuing to drive further efficiencies to optimize cash flow.

如果價格或我們的預期現金流有所改善，我們已經為該計劃增加了靈活性，以便在今年晚些時候增加這項活動。如果不逐步恢復這項活動，我們預計乾氣完井和銷售井數將比我們目前的井數指導少 10 到 15 口。預計完工延遲將對今年下半年的生產產生適度影響，並使季度生產情況趨於平穩。在運營方面，我們以強勁的勢頭開啟了 2023 年，並專注於繼續提高效率以優化現金流。

Now I'll turn the call over to Carl.

現在我會把電話轉給卡爾。

Thank you, Clay. In the first quarter, we generated approximately $100 million of free cash flow. Together with seasonal working capital inflows, which typically reverse through the year, we reduced debt from $4.4 billion at year-end to $4.0 billion. Leverage improved to 1.2x, though we expect leverage to increase as we move through the year. In February, we redeemed all of our outstanding 7.75% senior notes due 2027, following through on our previously communicated debt reduction plan and path to return to investment grade.

謝謝你，克萊。第一季度，我們產生了大約 1 億美元的自由現金流。再加上季節性流動資金流入（通常會在一年中逆轉），我們將債務從年底的 44 億美元減少到 40 億美元。槓桿率提高到 1.2 倍，但我們預計槓桿率會隨著今年的推移而增加。 2 月，我們贖回了 2027 年到期的所有未償還的 7.75% 優先票據，遵循我們之前傳達的債務削減計劃和回歸投資級別的途徑。

Turning to hedging. We have capitalized on the high level of contango in the strip by securing a base level of protection for 2025 using collars to preserve upside participation. We have also taken advantage of near record high volatility to convert collars to swaps and modestly raise our 2023 floor price. We are managing the business through the commodity price cycle to improve our financial strength and preserve our productive capacity to take advantage of the constructive longer-term outlook for natural gas.

轉向對沖。我們通過使用項圈確保 2025 年的基本保護水平來保持上行參與，從而利用了地帶中的高水平正價差。我們還利用接近創紀錄的高波動性將領子轉換為掉期，並適度提高 2023 年的底價。我們正在通過商品價格週期來管理業務，以提高我們的財務實力並保持我們的生產能力，以利用天然氣的建設性長期前景。

With that, please open the call.

有了這個，請打開電話。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) At this time, we will take our first question, which will come from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）此時，我們將提出第一個問題，該問題將來自 Charles Meade 和 Johnson Rice。

Bill, the question for you, could you give us some insight into how you're going to go about deciding when to complete the wells that you're -- where you're deferring completions? I think Clay spoke a bit to it -- about it. Obviously, price would be a part of it. But is there sort of a length of time that you have in mind right now? Or is there a price? Just maybe just elaborate on your thought process there.

比爾，你的問題，你能否讓我們了解一下你將如何決定何時完成你所在的油井 - 你正在推遲完工的地方？我認為 Clay 談到了它——關於它。顯然，價格是其中的一部分。但是你現在想到的時間長度是多少？或者有價格嗎？也許只是詳細說明你在那裡的思考過程。

Yes. So I'll start that off. The hope would be that commodity prices and cash flow would improve and then we could move quickly to do those completions whether they're sometime in the third quarter or the fourth quarter of the year. But that will all be driven by where cash flow is at and what commodity prices are doing. But with our own frac fleets and with the DUCs that these are creating, we will have that optionality to move very quickly and go forward with these completions. But right now, with where current prices are at, it's a 10% to 15% completion reduction that will show up in the second half of the year.

是的。所以我會開始。希望商品價格和現金流會有所改善，然後我們可以迅速採取行動完成這些工作，無論它們是在今年第三季度還是第四季度的某個時候。但這一切都將取決於現金流的位置和大宗商品價格的走勢。但是有了我們自己的壓裂船隊和這些正在創建的 DUC，我們將有這種選擇權，可以非常迅速地行動並繼續完成這些工作。但就目前的價格而言，今年下半年將出現 10% 至 15% 的完工減少。

And if that reduction stays in place, then they'll roll into 2024 obviously and be a part of that program.

如果這種減少保持不變，那麼他們顯然會進入 2024 年並成為該計劃的一部分。

So if I understood correctly, it's not just where the price goes, but it's also Southwestern's overall free cash flow, or your outspend or free cash flow position is another piece of the...

因此，如果我理解正確的話，這不僅是價格的走向，而且還是西南航空的整體自由現金流，或者您的支出或自由現金流頭寸是……的另一部分。

Yes. Let me pick one word up and move it out of the way. We have no intention of outspending our cash flow. So we'll moderate our activity in concert with all of the efficiency gains, the lower cost, the performance improvements and continue to optimize that program against the cash flow that we have available. And so from an economic perspective, these wells are economic. They meet our criteria. It's really not an issue with that. It's more a focus on the discipline around capital allocation and investing within cash flow.

是的。讓我挑一個詞，把它移開。我們無意超出我們的現金流量。因此，我們將根據所有效率提升、降低成本、性能改進來調整我們的活動，並根據我們可用的現金流繼續優化該計劃。因此，從經濟角度來看，這些井是經濟的。他們符合我們的標準。這真的不是問題。它更關注圍繞現金流的資本配置和投資的紀律。

Got it. And then if I could just pick up the thread of service cost reductions. Clay, you already gave us some detail there with frac horsepower and OCTG. But I wonder if you could perhaps elaborate a little bit more from the perspective -- or the differentiated perspective you have of also running service assets. But what gives you that confidence that -- or what are you seeing that gives you the confidence that, that service cost will come in a bit?

知道了。然後，如果我能接受降低服務成本的話題。 Clay，您已經向我們提供了一些有關壓裂馬力和 OCTG 的詳細信息。但我想知道您是否可以從這個角度或您對運行服務資產的差異化角度進行更多闡述。但是是什麼讓你有信心——或者你看到了什麼讓你有信心，服務成本會有所增加？

Well, to begin with, we've updated contractual arrangements that are locking those improvements in where we utilized our openers at the end of the first quarter. We proactively went back to all our service providers as we saw the price reduction in January to solicit reductions. And we've made good progress so far, which is helping with this capital move into the low end of the guidance that -- not all of that capital reduction is coming from activity cuts, it's coming from some inflation moderation also. Like a lot of folks have talked about, OCTG is a big mover. We've seen reduced pressure pumping costs as part of the opener process. And then diesel is another component that those costs have come down. Our efforts are going to continue to stay strong in that space, that we need to bring these costs down and get them more in line with the commodity price environment. And we think there will be more opportunities to do so.

好吧，首先，我們已經更新了合同安排，這些安排將這些改進鎖定在我們在第一季度末使用我們的開場白的地方。當我們看到 1 月份的價格下降時，我們主動回到我們所有的服務提供商那裡尋求降價。到目前為止，我們取得了良好的進展，這有助於將資本轉移到指導的低端——並非所有資本減少都來自活動削減，它也來自一些通脹放緩。正如很多人所說，OCTG 是一個大推動者。作為開溝器過程的一部分，我們已經看到降低的壓力泵送成本。然後柴油是這些成本下降的另一個組成部分。我們的努力將繼續在該領域保持強勁，我們需要降低這些成本並使其更符合商品價格環境。我們認為會有更多機會這樣做。

Our next question will come from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 RBC 資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

Yes. If I could just touch base on just sort of this adjusted plan to defer activity. If you step back and look at your 2023 overall budget, would -- based on where strip is right now, would the intent be you're still within your CapEx guidance and your production guidance albeit at the lower end, would be kind of the first part of the question? And the second one would be what happens if gas prices degrade a little bit more through the course of the year? Like what would be the next actions?

是的。如果我能根據這種調整後的計劃來推遲活動就好了。如果你退後一步，看看你的 2023 年總體預算，根據目前的剝離情況，你的意圖是否仍在你的資本支出指導和你的生產指導中，儘管處於低端，會是問題的第一部分？第二個問題是，如果天然氣價格在一年中進一步下降一點會發生什麼？比如接下來的行動是什麼？

Sure. So I think a key point of what you said is, yes, we're currently within the guidance range on capital and production. We're at the low end of that range on capital and just below the midpoint on production right now. If we see further commodity price reductions, then we will continue to be proactive in where we could take further adjustments. Like I said earlier, though, hopefully some of those capital improvements could come from further inflation moderation gains, which wouldn't impact activities.

當然。所以我認為你所說的一個關鍵點是，是的，我們目前在資本和生產的指導範圍內。我們目前處於資本範圍的低端，略低於生產的中點。如果我們看到大宗商品價格進一步下跌，那麼我們將繼續積極主動地採取進一步調整措施。不過，正如我之前所說，希望其中一些資本改善可以來自進一步的通脹緩和收益，這不會影響活動。

But we have identified where those next round of activity cuts would come from. There could be some more dry gas reductions on the completion side in Southwest App, some dry gas drilling reductions in Northeast App. And then in Haynesville, we would potentially do a mix of both drilling and completion slowing down, if need be. So we have a plan where we're hopeful that we're going to be able to find some of those reductions without having to cut activity and that commodity prices will firm up.

但我們已經確定了下一輪活動削減的來源。 Southwest App 的完井側可能會有更多的干氣減少，Northeast App 的一些乾氣鑽井減少。然後在海恩斯維爾，如果需要的話，我們可能會混合使用鑽井和完井減速。因此，我們有一個計劃，我們希望能夠在不必削減活動的情況下找到其中的一些減少，並且大宗商品價格將堅挺。

And that whole plan is optimized fairly continuously, and the output being capital required versus cash flow generated and making sure that we stay within cash flow with our investment.

整個計劃不斷優化，產出是所需資本與產生的現金流，並確保我們的投資保持在現金流範圍內。

Okay. It sounds like you guys have a lot of knobs and dials that you're working pretty aggressively here. So it's good to hear. My follow-up question is just on the productive capacity. And Bill, I think this has been a very strong point you've been making, You want to kind of maintain as much of that productive capacity as possible, especially looking into '24, '25, potentially improving macro. So at a high level, can you give us a sense of like what -- do you think any of these actions you've done so far reduces your productive capacity? And just give us again a sense of like where you think that level is for Southwestern's assets right now? Is it still around that 4.7 Bcf per day?

好的。聽起來你們有很多旋鈕和撥號盤，你們在這裡非常積極地工作。所以很高興聽到。我的後續問題只是關於生產能力。比爾，我認為這是你一直在強調的一個非常重要的觀點，你希望盡可能多地保持這種生產能力，特別是考慮到 '24、'25，可能會改善宏觀經濟。因此，在較高的層面上，您能否給我們一種感覺——您認為您迄今為止所做的任何這些行動是否會降低您的生產能力？再次給我們一種感覺，你認為西南航空的資產現在處於什麼水平？它仍然在每天 4.7 Bcf 左右嗎？

Yes. I think that what you've heard us talk about is really a well-balanced 2-year plan that talks about taking capital out in '23, having that capital result in a modest reduction in production, but that we are able to move into '24 and maintain a manageable ability to invest again within cash flow and drive -- arrest any decline that is present. I mean, one of the reasons you're taking a huge amount of capital and a huge production hit, the cost to kind of restart that engine is quite -- it can be quite high. And so we've optimized this. Certainly, the benefit of inflation coming down, the optimization of the development plan and the knobs, as you show it, we're able to kind of shape the program going forward and minimize that impact on the productive capacity feeding into a higher gas price environment.

是的。我認為你聽到我們談論的實際上是一個平衡良好的 2 年計劃，它討論了在 23 年撤出資本，讓這些資本導致產量適度減少，但我們能夠進入'24 並保持可管理的能力，以在現金流和驅動力中再次投資 - 阻止出現的任何下降。我的意思是，你需要大量資金和巨大的生產衝擊的原因之一是，重新啟動該引擎的成本相當高——可能相當高。所以我們對此進行了優化。當然，通脹下降的好處、開發計劃的優化和旋鈕，正如你所展示的，我們能夠在某種程度上塑造未來的計劃，並最大限度地減少對生產能力的影響，從而提高天然氣價格環境。

Okay, okay. So you feel pretty confident you've really minimized the amount of restart costs. And so that's not an issue as we look into '24 right now.

好吧好吧。因此，您非常有信心真正將重啟成本降至最低。因此，當我們現在研究 24 世紀時，這不是問題。

That's right. And there's a number of proof points that can back that up, which is really the things that we've talked about on inflation, efficiencies, et cetera. And you add to that one other item. You add to that our dual-basin position where we're able to pivot activity to liquids producing inventory, you're helping offset some of that as well.

這是正確的。並且有許多證據可以支持這一點，這實際上是我們在通貨膨脹、效率等方面討論過的事情。然後你添加另一個項目。你加上我們的雙流域位置，我們能夠將活動轉向液體生產庫存，你也在幫助抵消其中的一部分。

And our next question will come from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Bill or Carl, I'm not sure which of you would like to take this, but I want to kind of preface the question by talking about your well cost in the Haynesville. You've talked -- I think Clay talked about driving down well costs, reducing drilling days, which were all a bit, if I recollect, somewhat aspirational in the targets you laid out at the Analyst Day. And it sounds like you're already achieving some of those. So I guess my question is, how much of the capital cost guidance that you talked about is permanent costs that you're taking out through efficiency? And what would that mean for your maintenance capital as you look forward into that post-2023 activity levels?

比爾或卡爾，我不確定你們中的哪一個願意接受這個，但我想通過談談你們在海恩斯維爾的油井成本來作為這個問題的序言。你已經說過——我認為 Clay 談到了降低油井成本、減少鑽井天數，如果我記得的話，這些在你在分析師日制定的目標中都有點雄心勃勃。聽起來您已經實現了其中的一些目標。所以我想我的問題是，您談到的資本成本指導中有多少是您通過效率消除的永久性成本？當您展望 2023 年後的活動水平時，這對您的維護資本意味著什麼？

So maybe I'll jump in there just at the start, Doug. When we think about the inflation moderation that we've seen, that Analyst Day set of annual capital had some further inflation assumed in that in the out years. We don't see that now. And so when you take into account inflation moderation for full years now and the ongoing efficiency gains that were not all baked in, somewhere but not all of them, there's about $150 million to $200 million annual capital spend reduction in those out years versus what we showed in the Analyst Day.

所以也許我會在一開始就跳進去，道格。當我們考慮我們所看到的通脹放緩時，分析師日的那套年度資本假設在過去幾年中會出現進一步的通脹。我們現在看不到了。因此，當你考慮到現在全年的通貨膨脹放緩和持續的效率提升時，在某些地方但不是全部，與我們相比，這些年的年度資本支出減少了大約 1.5 億至 2 億美元顯示在分析師日。

That was pretty much the answer I was looking for -- go ahead, Carl. Please (inaudible) a material number, Carl.

這幾乎就是我一直在尋找的答案——繼續吧，卡爾。請（聽不清）一個物料編號，Carl。

Yes. And maybe we translate that to the free cash flow guidance we gave over the next, call it, 5 years, well north of $1 billion. .

是的。也許我們將其轉化為我們在接下來的 5 年內給出的自由現金流量指導，遠超過 10 億美元。 .

Thanks Carl, that's what I was looking for. Clear, I appreciate the input. And my second -- go on, Bill?

謝謝卡爾，這就是我要找的。清楚，我感謝您的投入。我的第二個——繼續，比爾？

No, go ahead.

沒有，繼續。

My second question, Bill, is really more a macro question, if you don't mind. You have relatively small nonoperated working interest in the Haynesville, I guess, 3% or 4%, if I recollect. But that probably gives you some insight to AFEs for the general industry, I'm guessing, privates in particular. What are your -- you talked about your own activity level. What are your expectations for the industry activity level in the Haynesville because it's obviously a big input to focus you on the macro at this point? And I'll leave it there. .

如果你不介意的話，我的第二個問題，Bill，實際上是一個宏觀問題。如果我沒記錯的話，你在 Haynesville 的非經營性工作權益相對較小，我猜是 3% 或 4%。但這可能會讓您對一般行業的 AFE 有所了解，我猜，尤其是私營行業。你是什麼——你談到了你自己的活動水平。您對 Haynesville 的行業活動水平有何期望，因為此時將您的注意力集中在宏觀上顯然是一個很大的投入？我會把它留在那裡。 .

Yes, Doug, I'll jump in there again. I think the good news on some of the rig count information in the Haynesville, where we started the year with our industry with around 72 rigs. And based on some Baker count updates that we got recently that's dipped down to 64. So that's an 8-rig drop right there. It's in line with what we thought would happen that it would take a little bit of time for that to show up in the public data. It's showing up. Internally, we think maybe there'll be a 15- to 20-rig drop for the full year in the Haynesville. There are some other industry publications that are pointing to as high as 20- to 30-rig drop in the Haynesville. So we think it's going to continue and it's consistent with the way we thought about it, that those drops are starting to show up now.

是的，道格，我會再跳進去。我認為關於 Haynesville 的一些鑽井平台數量信息的好消息，我們在今年年初與我們的行業一起擁有大約 72 個鑽井平台。根據我們最近獲得的一些 Baker 計數更新，該數據已降至 64。因此，那裡有 8 個鑽機下降。這與我們認為會發生的情況一致，即需要一點時間才能顯示在公共數據中。它出現了。在內部，我們認為 Haynesville 全年可能會減少 15 到 20 台鑽機。還有一些其他行業出版物指出，海恩斯維爾的鑽機數量高達 20 至 30 台。所以我們認為它會繼續下去，並且與我們的想法一致，那些下降現在開始出現。

And then you have the publics and the publics have pulled back as well. So I think at the end of the day, a lower rig count with some requisite production leveling offer declining, depending on who you are. The privates were in growth mode, the publics were in maintenance mode, so they'll have varying results from that point of view.

然後你有公眾，公眾也退縮了。因此，我認為歸根結底，較低的鑽機數量和一些必要的生產平衡報價會下降，這取決於你是誰。私營部門處於增長模式，公共部門處於維護模式，所以從這個角度來看，他們會有不同的結果。

Really helpful, guys. Before I jump, I just want to clarify my first question. Carl, did you say we basically then have $1 billion added back to the free cash flow? Did I hear you right on that?

真的很有幫助，伙計們。在我跳之前，我只想澄清我的第一個問題。卡爾，你是說我們基本上有 10 億美元回流到自由現金流中嗎？我沒聽錯嗎？

More than (inaudible) inflation and this compounding effects and the reductions in capital efficiencies that Clay talked about. .

不僅僅是（聽不清）通貨膨脹和這種複合效應以及克萊談到的資本效率下降。 .

Our next question will come from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

I want to better understand maybe from you, Clay, the planned reductions in CapEx. The midpoint of your guidance range from last night is still $2.35 billion, I think you're indicating that you'll get down to $2.2 billion deferring 10 to 15 completions. I just wanted to see if you can confirm that and maybe give us a sense of what actions you're taking today to take out $150 million of capital out of the budget. It sounds like you're moving 1 completion crew out of the Haynesville. And is that the change? And then maybe removing 1 additional crew from Appalachia a little bit earlier than you previously had. Is that -- I just want to go through those moving pieces.

克萊，我想從你那裡更好地了解資本支出的計劃削減。昨晚你的指導範圍的中點仍然是 23.5 億美元，我認為你的意思是你將減少到 22 億美元，推遲 10 到 15 次完成。我只是想看看你是否可以證實這一點，也許可以讓我們了解你今天採取了什麼行動來從預算中拿出 1.5 億美元的資金。聽起來您要將 1 名完工人員搬出海恩斯維爾。那是變化嗎？然後可能會比以前更早地從阿巴拉契亞移除 1 名額外的船員。那是——我只想回顧一下那些動人的片段。

Yes. So you have that right. I think your opening comment that we're down towards the low end of that original capital guidance range is correct. The one thing I want to make sure you understand, it's not all activity reductions that are driving the capital down there. There's a nice benefit, plus approximately 40% of that reduction is coming from the inflation moderation that we have already realized. Hopefully, there will be more of that as we move through the year, but that's the basis for the $150 million. And then as you think about actions. We've already made the notifications to service providers around those cuts and the timing of those cuts. And when you think about the original guidance and what we're talking about today, that (inaudible) reduction of a frac fleet in Haynesville that would have gone to the end of the year is over half a rig fleet when we think about our averaging. And then you mentioned that we cut one loose earlier than we had originally planned. So it's another 0.7 of a frac fleet that's going away versus the discussion that we had in February.

是的。所以你有那個權利。我認為您的開場評論是正確的，即我們正在接近原始資本指導範圍的低端。我想確保你明白的一件事是，並不是所有活動的減少都在推動資本下降。有一個很好的好處，另外大約 40% 的減少來自我們已經意識到的通脹緩和。希望隨著我們今年的推進，會有更多這樣的項目，但這是 1.5 億美元的基礎。然後當你考慮行動時。我們已經就這些削減和削減的時間向服務提供商發出了通知。當你想到最初的指導意見和我們今天談論的內容時，當我們考慮我們的平均值時，海恩斯維爾的壓裂機隊（聽不清）將在年底減少一半以上.然後你提到我們比原計劃更早地削減了一個。因此，與我們在 2 月份進行的討論相比，還有 0.7 個壓裂船隊正在消失。

Great. That's helpful. Bill, one for you. You left us a little morsel on LNG indicating that there may be a LNG facility that comes on early, I think you mentioned later this year. I don't know if you're referring to Golden Pass, but love to get more insights on that part of your prepared commentary. .

偉大的。這很有幫助。比爾，一個給你。你給我們留下了一些關於液化天然氣的信息，表明可能會有一個液化天然氣設施提前投入使用，我想你在今年晚些時候提到過。我不知道您是否指的是 Golden Pass，但很想對您準備好的評論的這一部分獲得更多見解。 .

This is David Talley. So we -- later this year, we expect a smaller one Fast LNG to go into service. And we're also expecting Golden Pass and Plaquemines to potentially start commissioning. They won't actually be in service, but they will start commissioning and taking gas. So we expect those to ramp up maybe sooner than expected.

這是大衛·塔利。所以我們 - 今年晚些時候，我們預計一個更小的快速液化天然氣將投入使用。我們也期待 Golden Pass 和 Plaquemines 有可能開始調試。它們實際上不會投入使用，但會開始調試和加油。因此，我們預計這些增長可能會比預期的更快。

And can you give us a sense of the magnitude of feed gas from those 3 projects?

您能否讓我們了解這 3 個項目的原料氣量？

So that's hard to tell. I mean, it depends on the commissioning process. It usually is up and down and gradual over time.

所以這很難說。我的意思是，這取決於調試過程。隨著時間的推移，它通常是上下漸進的。

The fast is going to be 400,000 MMBtu a day.

禁食將是每天 400,000 MMBtu。

Our next question will come from Bertrand Donnes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Bertrand Donnes with Truist。

Just following up on the last comment. Could you talk about your approach to future LNG agreements? The commentary you just gave kind of gave the impression that you're happy to just indirectly benefit from LNG demand in the basin. But maybe because you guys are so well positioned, you're better off letting everyone else hash out the details first and test the waters and then you can swoop in at the end with a better contract. Or are you guys waiting for something maybe specific like a higher premium to Henry Hub or a lower deduct from JKM? Anything you're looking for there?

只是跟進最後一條評論。你能談談你對未來液化天然氣協議的態度嗎？您剛剛發表的評論給人的印像是，您很高興能夠間接受益於該流域的液化天然氣需求。但也許因為你們的定位如此之好，你最好讓其他人先討論細節並試水，然後你可以在最後以一份更好的合同猛撲過去。或者你們是否在等待一些特定的東西，比如 Henry Hub 的更高溢價或 JKM 的更低扣除？你在那裡找什麼？

Yes. I think our position in LNG on the supply side has given us a great window into the LNG markets, both domestically priced and internationally priced. We talk to and meet with utilities both domestically and in Europe, liquefaction projects, buyers on the other end to understand that market deeper. We're going to continue to evaluate contract terms of different arrangements, how far we want to go into that particular business in terms of do you take liquefaction capacity or do you not.

是的。我認為我們在液化天然氣供應方面的地位為我們提供了進入國內定價和國際定價的液化天然氣市場的絕佳窗口。我們與國內和歐洲的公用事業、液化項目、另一端的買家進行交談和會面，以更深入地了解該市場。我們將繼續評估不同安排的合同條款，我們希望在您是否採用液化能力方面進入該特定業務的程度。

We think that the benefit from both higher Henry Hub prices and potentially international LNG prices is certainly present and we will position ourselves to take advantage of this in either direction. We're going to look at any of these arrangements as on a risk-adjusted basis so that we have a competitive project or a competitive gas supply agreement that brings greater value than our status quo, which is Henry Hub-based projects. But even some of the domestic -- or the current projects, we're having dialogue with them to look forward from where we are.

我們認為，亨利中心價格上漲和潛在的國際液化天然氣價格帶來的好處肯定存在，我們將自己定位為在任一方向利用這一優勢。我們將在風險調整的基礎上審視這些安排中的任何一個，以便我們擁有一個有競爭力的項目或有競爭力的天然氣供應協議，比我們目前基於亨利中心的項目帶來更大的價值。但即使是一些國內項目——或當前的項目，我們也在與他們進行對話，以從我們所處的位置向前看。

Okay. Yes, that's helpful. And then looking at your hedge book there's a notable drop off in 2025. And I'm just wondering, is that intentional to coincide with LNG demand pick-up? Or is that just your typical you don't want to hedge into the market 2 years out because the market is too thin and you won't get a great price?

好的。是的，這很有幫助。然後看看你的對沖賬簿，2025 年會出現顯著下降。我只是想知道，這是有意與液化天然氣需求回升相吻合的嗎？或者這只是您的典型情況，您不想在 2 年後進入市場對沖，因為市場太清淡，您不會得到很好的價格？

There's several parts to that answer. One, out in '25, if you think about our hedging practice, we would be hedged less the further out it is from a risk perspective. Second, as a company, we've moved into a place, given our financial strength, where we're able to hedge at a lower level than we have done in the past.

這個答案有幾個部分。第一，在 25 年，如果你考慮我們的對沖做法，從風險的角度來看，我們的對沖越遠。其次，作為一家公司，鑑於我們的財務實力，我們已經進入了一個地方，我們能夠在比過去更低的水平上進行對沖。

Third, we kind of think that it's important to get closer to the year that you're actually trying to protect revenue from to hedge so that in the case of -- as we've all seen for the last few years where you've had dramatic changes in gas price, given the structural volatility that's in that market now, the closer you can get to in a particular year you're trying to protect, it appears that there's benefit.

第三，我們認為，重要的是要接近你實際上試圖保護收入免受對沖的那一年，這樣在這種情況下——正如我們在過去幾年中所看到的那樣考慮到現在該市場的結構性波動，天然氣價格發生了巨大變化，你越接近你試圖保護的特定年份，似乎就會有好處。

And then I think when you think about where we may hedge going forward, some sort of ratable 40% to 50%, 40% to 60% level is kind of where we're triangulating. And that is again given the fact that our financial strength is present and durable, and we're able to use different vehicles to hedge collars and swaps. And we actively manage the program once it's done.

然後我認為，當你考慮我們未來可能對沖的地方時，某種可評估的 40% 到 50%，40% 到 60% 的水平就是我們正在三角測量的地方。再次考慮到我們的財務實力是存在且持久的，我們能夠使用不同的工具來對沖領子和掉期。一旦完成，我們就會積極管理該程序。

Okay. Great. And then not a real third question. Just kind of a -- there's news about the Columbia Pipeline fire. Do you guys have a number in front of you yet on what exposure -- were you able to change price points? Or just any color on that? And that's all I got.

好的。偉大的。然後不是真正的第三個問題。有點——有關於哥倫比亞管道火災的消息。你們面前有沒有關於曝光率的數字——你們能改變價格點嗎？或者只是上面的任何顏色？這就是我所得到的。

Okay. Thank you. David?

好的。謝謝。大衛？

Yes. So yes, so we are aware of that explosion. So it moves total about 2.2 Bcf a day from Appalachia down to the Gulf Coast. They're posting as they've curtailed our capacity about 400,000 total. So we have a little over 300,000 of capacity on that pipeline. So we would expect minor transportation reduction, capacity reduction. But that won't impact our production. And so we -- and we can resupply our markets from our other transport from Haynesville and move our production around. So we don't expect to see any impact.

是的。所以是的，所以我們知道那次爆炸。因此，它每天從阿巴拉契亞山脈向墨西哥灣沿岸移動總計約 2.2 Bcf。他們發布消息是因為他們減少了我們總共約 400,000 人的容量。所以我們在這條管道上有超過 300,000 的容量。因此，我們預計會出現輕微的運輸減少和運力減少。但這不會影響我們的生產。所以我們——我們可以從海恩斯維爾的其他運輸工具為我們的市場提供補給，並轉移我們的生產。所以我們不希望看到任何影響。

Yes. The strength of our portfolio in this space, transportation is very clear. We've got options well beyond just nameplate on a particular pipe. And the team optimizes around that almost immediately when that happens.

是的。我們在這個領域的投資組合的實力，運輸是非常明顯的。我們提供的選項遠遠超出了特定管道上的銘牌。當這種情況發生時，團隊幾乎會立即圍繞它進行優化。

And our next question will come from Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

I have a couple of housekeeping questions. Can you dig a little bit into your quarterly turn-in-line cadence and production cadence for the year if we don't pick up those dropped crews? Trying to understand the decline in production as you exit the year and as you start 2024.

我有幾個內務問題。如果我們不接收那些掉隊的人員，您能否深入了解一下您今年的季度上線節奏和生產節奏？試圖了解今年結束和 2024 年開始時產量下降的情況。

Yes. So I think this can help. We commented that -- what this will result in is a flat quarterly production profile around that 4.6-ish Bcf equivalent a day of net production versus the second half increase in production that was in our original guidance.

是的。所以我認為這會有所幫助。我們評論說——這將導致季度生產概況持平，大約 4.6-ish Bcf 相當於一天的淨產量，而下半年的產量增加是我們最初的指導。

Got you. That's helpful. And then I guess on the outflow, Carl, I think you mentioned on the working capital outflow point, which you mentioned for the remainder of the year. I just want to be sure that I caught the point correctly that you're expecting the inflow this quarter to be reversed over the course of the next 3 quarters.

明白了這很有幫助。然後我猜關於流出，卡爾，我想你提到了你在今年剩餘時間裡提到的營運資金流出點。我只是想確保我正確地抓住了這一點，即您預計本季度的流入量將在接下來的 3 個季度中逆轉。

Umang, you got that correct. We enjoyed in the first quarter [375] or so of a working capital inflow benefit. It's very typical for the way we manage our capital, et cetera, seasonality in our business. And we will -- we do expect that to largely reverse throughout the year given the current strip.

烏芒，你說對了。我們在第一季度 [375] 左右享受到了營運資金流入的好處。對於我們管理資本的方式，以及業務的季節性，這是非常典型的。鑑於目前的情況，我們將 - 我們確實預計這一年將在很大程度上逆轉。

And our next question here will come from Jeoffrey Lambujon with TPH.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jeoffrey Lambujon 和 TPH。

My first one is just on differentials, which look to have come in better than expectations here in the quarter. If you could talk about what you attribute that to over Q1. And if you could share a little bit about your macro outlook on how you think this will come into the balance of the year and just key considerations around that.

我的第一個只是關於差異，這看起來比本季度的預期要好。如果你能談談你將其歸因於 Q1。如果你能分享一下你的宏觀前景，你認為這將如何進入今年的平衡，以及圍繞它的關鍵考慮因素。

Yes, this is David. So our Q1 differentials were stronger, mostly Northeast prices were higher than expected in Q1 and primarily around our Citygate transport to the New York and New England markets. We also had some of our daily Northeast volumes that were sold at higher-priced locations during that winter volatility. .

是的，這是大衛。因此，我們的第一季度差異更大，主要是東北地區的價格高於第一季度的預期，主要是圍繞我們到紐約和新英格蘭市場的東薈城運輸。在那個冬季波動期間，我們也有一些日常的東北地區成交量是在價格較高的地方出售的。 .

Great. And as you think about kind of the balance of the year, I know you have some guideposts out there, but just key considerations and moving pieces would be helpful.

偉大的。當你考慮今年的平衡時，我知道你有一些指導方針，但只是關鍵的考慮因素和移動的部分會有所幫助。

Yes. We expect it to be within guidance.

是的。我們希望它在指導範圍內。

And we hedge basis, always have as well to protect that.

我們對沖基礎，也總是有保護的基礎。

Great. And then as my follow-up, I was hoping just to get a snapshot of D&C per foot in each of your basins throughout the quarter for Q1. Just I think similar to how you spoke to Q4 on the last call, and then looking forward, how you think those might trend particularly in the Haynesville just as we think about the ranges that you've spoken to before, and how quickly we can maybe see progress towards the low end there just based on your commentary on service costs so far that I'll walk through.

偉大的。然後作為我的後續行動，我希望在第一季度的每個盆地中獲得每英尺 D&C 的快照。只是我認為類似於你在上次電話會議上與 Q4 的談話方式，然後展望未來，你認為這些趨勢可能如何發展，特別是在海恩斯維爾，就像我們考慮你之前談到的範圍一樣，以及我們能多快到目前為止，我將根據您對服務成本的評論，也許可以看到低端的進展。

Certainly. So we think for sure in Haynesville that Q1 will be the highest well cost per foot because that's where we had entered into the new service cost to start the year. And then now as we're pulling inflation down, that will be an added benefit with the efficiency gains as we move forward. But in Appalachia, we were around $830 a foot in Q1; and in Haynesville, we were right at $2,100 a foot in Q1. But as I talked about, we're expecting Haynesville well cost to drive down every quarter as we move forward. And then that will approach the low end of our range when we get into the back half and in the fourth quarter of the year.

當然。因此，我們可以肯定地認為，在海恩斯維爾，Q1 將是每英尺最高的油井成本，因為那是我們在年初開始計算新服務成本的地方。然後現在我們正在拉低通貨膨脹，隨著我們前進，這將是一個額外的好處，效率會提高。但在阿巴拉契亞，第一季度我們的價格約為每英尺 830 美元；在海恩斯維爾，我們在第一季度的價格是每英尺 2,100 美元。但正如我所說，我們預計隨著我們前進，海恩斯維爾的油井成本每個季度都會下降。然後，當我們進入下半年和今年第四季度時，這將接近我們範圍的低端。

And while the basins are very different and certainly have their nuances, I think one of the proof points that is clear to me on the ability to get cost down is looking north to all of the work that has been accomplished in Appalachia and that we leverage the dual-basin capability around every part of the business. But certainly, cost and low costs are a big piece of that.

雖然這些盆地非常不同，而且肯定有細微差別，但我認為我可以清楚地證明降低成本的能力之一是向北看阿巴拉契亞地區已經完成的所有工作，我們利用圍繞業務每個部分的雙流域能力。但可以肯定的是，成本和低成本是其中很大一部分。

I think just a reminder that the well performance that we have in the Haynesville is benefited by the greater depth and pressure in the Natchitoches Fault Zone that drives some of the higher well costs in that acreage. But it's more than offset by the performance.

我想只是提醒一下，我們在 Haynesville 的油井性能受益於 Natchitoches 斷層帶的更大深度和壓力，這導致該地區的一些井成本更高。但這不僅僅是被性能所抵消。

And our next question here will come from Nicholas Pope with Seaport Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Seaport Research 的 Nicholas Pope。

I was hoping you guys could talk a little bit on the kind of balance in Appalachia between dry gas and liquids-rich portion. I think you've been steady at like 2/3 of activity is going to be on the liquids-rich side. Just kind of curious what the capacity is to process the NGL and the oil that's part of the liquids-rich side? And maybe what's governing not potentially putting -- swinging in the balance more towards the liquids-rich side. Kind of curious how you're thinking about the balance between that.

我希望你們能談談阿巴拉契亞乾氣和富含液體部分之間的平衡。我認為您一直保持穩定，大約 2/3 的活動將發生在富含液體的一側。只是有點好奇處理 NGL 和富含液體的一部分的油的能力是多少？也許沒有潛在的控制因素——將平衡更多地轉向富含液體的一側。有點好奇你是如何考慮兩者之間的平衡的。

So I'll start that off that as we talked about, we recognize the benefits on liquids pricing as we were coming into the year and that we were adding 9 more additional wells to sales in that liquids-rich area in 2023 versus 2022. The production impact of the start of that in Q1 showed up nicely with our -- both condensate and NGL volumes increasing. From an activity standpoint, the activities are roughly 50-50 between overall Appalachia and Haynesville. And so we're balancing maintaining the overall productive capacity as we move towards what we think will be a better commodity price environment into 2024. So that's part of the balancing that we're utilizing as we look at that mix. We have the flexibility to further adjust that mix if we believe that's the right answer, prices, et cetera, push us to that place. And we've got all the capacity that we need to handle greater NGLs as part of that potential shift.

因此，我將從我們談到的開始，我們認識到進入這一年時液體定價的好處，並且我們在 2023 年與 2022 年相比，在該富含液體的地區增加了 9 個額外的銷售井。第一季度開始的生產影響很好地體現了我們的 - 凝析油和 NGL 產量都在增加。從活動的角度來看，整個阿巴拉契亞和海恩斯維爾之間的活動大約為 50-50。因此，隨著我們朝著我們認為到 2024 年更好的商品價格環境邁進，我們正在平衡維持整體生產能力。因此，這是我們在考慮這種組合時正在利用的平衡的一部分。如果我們認為這是正確的答案，價格等將我們推向那個地方，我們可以靈活地進一步調整該組合。作為潛在轉變的一部分，我們擁有處理更多 NGL 所需的所有能力。

And our next question comes from Paul Diamond with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Paul Diamond。

Just a quick question on 10 to 15 completion reduction we're talking about here. Is there any particular county or geographic area you guys are focusing? Or would that be more of a game time decision?

只是一個關於我們在這裡談論的 10 到 15 完成減少的快速問題。你們有沒有關注任何特定的縣或地理區域？或者這更像是遊戲時間的決定？

Sorry, did you say a county that we would be focused in?

抱歉，您是說我們將重點關注的縣嗎？

Yes, particularly geographic area.

是的，特別是地理區域。

So most of it is dry gas like we talked about is where the completion reductions are coming from. And then of the 10 to 15, there's more coming out of the Haynesville tied to the reduction or the -- getting rid of the frac fleet that we did have modeled for the full year in mid-May.

因此，就像我們談到的那樣，大部分是乾氣，這是完成減少的來源。然後在 10 到 15 人中，海恩斯維爾有更多的人與減少或擺脫我們在 5 月中旬為全年建模的壓裂車隊有關。

Understood. And then just a quick question, more topical on flow assurance. You guys talked about 65% of the Gulf Coast. Just trying to get an idea of where you guys feel the kind of the optimal level is for that in the long term?

明白了。然後只是一個簡短的問題，更多關於流量保證的話題。你們談論了 65% 的墨西哥灣沿岸地區。只是想了解一下你們認為從長遠來看最佳水平是什麼？

Paul, this is David. So the 65%, so that includes both our Haynesville position and our transport from Appalachia, which -- so the transport from Appalachia, that's about 700,000. If they were to -- if there were some additional pipeline expansions that would go in place, we would look at participating in some of those from Appalachia. There really aren't any on the forefront right now. So we would see some of that growth coming from the Haynesville and -- where we've announced that we have participated in a few projects already.

保羅，這是大衛。所以 65%，這包括我們在海恩斯維爾的位置和我們從阿巴拉契亞的運輸，從阿巴拉契亞的運輸，大約是 700,000。如果他們要 - 如果有一些額外的管道擴展將會到位，我們會考慮參與其中的一些來自阿巴拉契亞的管道。現在真的沒有任何人站在最前沿。因此，我們會看到一些增長來自海恩斯維爾——我們已經宣布我們已經參與了一些項目。

So I think there's a lot of levers to pull and a lot of optimization in looking at both of our basins and how we want to develop them. That will go into that as well.

因此，我認為在審視我們的兩個盆地以及我們希望如何開發它們時，有很多槓桿可以拉動，也有很多優化。這也將涉及到這一點。

And our next question will come from Subash Chandra with Benchmark.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Benchmark 的 Subash Chandra。

Clay, this -- maybe this question is for you. Can you sort of describe cycle times of bringing DUCs back, how instantaneous a process that might be if prices are in the right ZIP code?

Clay，這個——也許這個問題是給你的。您能否描述一下將 DUC 帶回的周期時間，如果價格在正確的郵政編碼中，這個過程可能有多即時？

Sure. I think in Appalachia, it will be quicker because we have our 2 company-owned frac fleets in that area. And so we've moved our rigs and frac fleets in the past where we make the decision, and in a week we're rigged up and drilling and/or pumping. So we would be able to move very quickly on completions of DUCs in Appalachia for the reason I just talked about. In the Haynesville, it wouldn't be as quick, but with the activity reductions that we believe are going to continue both on drilling rigs and on frac fleets in that area, I think as we get into late third quarter, there will be an opportunity to pick up third-party frac fleets to go start some of those early or then wait until 2024. But that timing will be dependent on availability and it will be longer than our timing in Appalachia.

當然。我認為在阿巴拉契亞，它會更快，因為我們在該地區擁有 2 個公司擁有的壓裂船隊。因此，我們在過去做出決定的地方移動了我們的鑽井平台和壓裂船隊，並在一周內完成鑽井和/或抽水。因此，出於我剛才談到的原因，我們將能夠非常快速地完成阿巴拉契亞 DUC 的完成。在海恩斯維爾，它不會那麼快，但隨著我們認為該地區的鑽井平台和壓裂船隊的活動減少將繼續，我認為當我們進入第三季度末時，將會有有機會選擇第三方壓裂車隊，以便儘早開始其中一些，或者等到 2024 年。但這個時間將取決於可用性，並且會比我們在阿巴拉契亞的時間更長。

Not to put words in your mouth, but would you sort of say the variance is weeks in the case of Marcellus and in the case of Haynesville?

不是口頭表達，但你會說 Marcellus 和 Haynesville 的差異是幾週嗎？

Yes, I would agree that in Appalachia, it will be weeks. But on the Haynesville piece, it's all going to have to do with availability. So that will...

是的，我同意在阿巴拉契亞，這將是數週。但在 Haynesville 的文章中，這一切都與可用性有關。這樣會...

Got it. And Bill, question for you, if you had any thoughts about this. What do you think happens with A&D sentiment in general? And we've certainly seen a lot of headlines of Haynesville operators that were looking to tap the market. Do you think that this (inaudible) just given the macro? Or do you think some of those sort of see the writing on the wall and put some in play?

知道了。比爾，如果你對此有任何想法，請問你。您認為 A&D 情緒總體上會發生什麼變化？我們當然已經看到很多海恩斯維爾運營商希望開拓市場的頭條新聞。你認為這（聽不清）只是給出了宏嗎？還是您認為其中一些人看到了牆上的文字並發揮了作用？

Yes. As far as swing goes, and then I'll go from there, our focus right now is capturing the value from our scale in these 2 basins we're in. And today's call and all the other information we put out I think shows that we're having results in that area. I think you've got a number of things going on with some of the other players, whether on the private side, pricing drop through the floor, the ability to close the bid-ask spread is too wide, or in the case of some just specific agreements or specific objectives they were trying to achieve, and the counterparties couldn't agree. The volatility of gas price and liquids, if there are any, certainly plays into that. And with this extreme volatility that's going on, it makes it more difficult for some of those to actually transact. Again, we watch all those pieces and activities. It gets down to also what's for sale or what's on the offering and how can it possibly be accretive to what you already have, especially in these 2 basins, if you're -- if it's a gas one.

是的。就擺動而言，然後我將從那裡開始，我們現在的重點是從我們所處的這兩個盆地的規模中獲取價值。我認為今天的電話會議和我們發布的所有其他信息表明我們在那個領域取得了成果。我認為您與其他一些參與者發生了很多事情，無論是在私人方面，價格跌破底線，關閉買賣價差的能力太大，或者在某些情況下只是他們試圖達成的特定協議或特定目標，而交易對手無法達成一致。天然氣價格和液體的波動（如果有的話）肯定會影響到這一點。由於這種極端的波動正在發生，這使得其中一些人更難進行實際交易。我們再次觀看所有這些作品和活動。它也歸結為出售什麼或提供什麼，以及它如何可能增加你已經擁有的東西，特別是在這兩個盆地中，如果你是——如果它是一個天然氣盆地。

Our next question will come from Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers。

So wondered if you could just maybe get into a little bit more detail about your thoughts rest of the year heading into 2024 on NGL pricing. We're kind of back to some of that divergence between different products getting fairly marked. So I just wonder if you could talk about your assumptions on those fundamentals.

所以想知道您是否可以更詳細地了解您在今年剩餘時間進入 2024 年對 NGL 定價的想法。我們有點回到不同產品之間的一些差異，這些差異變得相當明顯。所以我只是想知道你是否可以談談你對這些基本面的假設。

When you look at NGL macro, first one that comes to mind is ethane. A couple of things around there. Ethane gets pressured by weak pet chem demand or increased supply gas or anything also tied to natural gas. So you've got a lot of recovery going on. We think that higher exports to Asia will help improve the margins on ethylene, which could provide some support for that product. Whether or not the country goes into a recession will also play a part of that.

當您查看 NGL 宏時，首先想到的是乙烷。那裡有幾件事。乙烷受到疲軟的石油化學品需求或增加的天然氣供應或任何與天然氣相關的壓力。所以你有很多恢復正在進行。我們認為，增加對亞洲的出口將有助於提高乙烯的利潤率，這可能為該產品提供一些支持。該國是否陷入衰退也將起到一定作用。

On propane, there's a lot of domestic inventory that's present because of the mild winter. China reopening new plastic production out of Asia will help again export. And when you get that channel open, that helps support prices as well. And on butanes and natural gasoline, it's really the strong global demand for crude and related products, butane and natural gasoline or feedstocks to gasoline. And so as demand for gasoline rises, so does the value of those products.

在丙烷方面，由於冬季溫和，存在大量國內庫存。中國重新開放亞洲以外的新塑料生產將再次有助於出口。當您打開該渠道時，這也有助於支撐價格。在丁烷和天然汽油方面，全球對原油和相關產品、丁烷和天然汽油或汽油原料的強勁需求。因此，隨著對汽油的需求增加，這些產品的價值也會增加。

Great. Thanks for the detail. And just as you've talked about taking quite a few questions around pace and what prices look like and how that might affect your activity levels. But as you said, it sounds like the cost side is definitely heading back from the worst case. And -- but it's fair to say that we're already almost in May. And so when it comes to changes in activity levels and pads coming on pushing out later in the year, it's a fairly narrow decision window. I mean, we're talking about as far as impact on 2023 as opposed to your decisions that are going to have more of an effect on whether you're off to a fast start or sort of a more modest start in 2024, right? So we're -- 2023 is getting pretty -- a little almost long in the tooth at this point, right, as far as impact on full year volumes.

偉大的。謝謝你的詳細信息。就像你談到了關於速度和價格的問題以及這可能如何影響你的活動水平一樣。但正如你所說，聽起來成本方面肯定會從最壞的情況中恢復過來。而且 - 但可以公平地說我們已經快到五月了。因此，當談到今年晚些時候推出的活動水平和護墊的變化時，這是一個相當狹窄的決策窗口。我的意思是，我們談論的是對 2023 年的影響，而不是你的決定，這些決定將對你在 2024 年是快速開始還是更溫和的開始產生更大的影響，對吧？因此，就對全年銷量的影響而言，我們 - 2023 年變得很漂亮 - 在這一點上有點長了，對吧。

Yes. I think, again, it's impact on full year volume but its impact on the amount of cash flow we generate. And we operate this business as we think about planning on a 2-year rolling basis. And so short-term adjustments to our plan is always continuously being optimized, can help pivot this year and make sure that we're investing within cash flow. But it also really highlights larger decisions that could have bigger impact in '24 and make sure we understand that impact again to maintain the productive capacity of the company feeding into the rise in gas price.

是的。我再次認為，這對全年銷量有影響，但對我們產生的現金流量有影響。我們在考慮以 2 年滾動為基礎進行規劃時經營這項業務。因此，對我們計劃的短期調整總是在不斷優化，可以幫助今年調整併確保我們在現金流範圍內進行投資。但它也確實突出了可能在 24 世紀產生更大影響的更大決策，並確保我們再次了解這種影響，以維持公司的生產能力，以應對天然氣價格上漲。

Our next question will come from Gregg Brody with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Gregg Brody。

Just with respect to your operating costs, if you do reduce your activity, do you expect to be at the higher end of the guidance? Or do you -- are you seeing similar disinflation on the operating cost side?

就您的運營成本而言，如果您確實減少了活動，您是否期望處於指導的較高端？或者你 - 你是否在運營成本方面看到類似的通貨膨脹？

So on the LOE side of the business, we think we will see some softening, but it's lagging the capital right now because a big part of that is around saltwater disposal, water hauling, and there hasn't been deflation showing up in any material way in that space. We have benefited from lower lease use costs on gas that will help on the LOE side, but it's lagging what we've been seeing on the capital.

因此，在業務的 LOE 方面，我們認為我們會看到一些軟化，但它現在落後於首都，因為其中很大一部分是圍繞鹽水處理、運水，而且任何材料都沒有出現通貨緊縮在那個空間的方式。我們受益於較低的天然氣租賃使用成本，這將有助於 LOE 方面，但它落後於我們在首都看到的情況。

Yes. And Gregg, we typically -- our LOE is usually a little lighter in the first half of the year and then it usually ticks up $0.01 or $0.02 towards the back half of the year. So we expect that to be the case this year but still to be within that guidance range even with the activity reduction.

是的。格雷格，我們通常 - 我們的 LOE 在上半年通常會稍微輕一些，然後在下半年通常會上漲 0.01 美元或 0.02 美元。因此，我們預計今年會出現這種情況，但即使活動減少，仍會在該指導範圍內。

Got it. And then I appreciate the capital discipline that you're implementing and have been practicing. Should we think about -- I know you mentioned the working capital should be a slight negative going forward for the rest of the year. Do you expect to pay any more debt down this year at the way you're looking at things? Or do you think you're kind of tapped out for now?

知道了。然後我很欣賞你正在實施和一直在實踐的資本紀律。我們是否應該考慮 - 我知道你提到今年剩餘時間的營運資金應該略有負數。按照你看待事物的方式，你預計今年會償還更多的債務嗎？或者你認為你現在有點被挖掘出來了嗎？

Simple answer is we do. Any free cash flow will go to debt repayment. And -- as you'd expect, we always -- we had, what, $5 billion of assets since second half of 2020 and always look for ways to potentially (inaudible) and any proceeds from the sale of noncore might pay down to.

簡單的答案是我們這樣做。任何自由現金流都將用於償還債務。而且 - 正如你所期望的那樣，我們一直 - 自 2020 年下半年以來，我們擁有 50 億美元的資產，並且一直在尋找潛在（聽不清）的方法，並且出售非核心業務的任何收益可能會減少。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Bill Way for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Bill Way，聽取任何閉幕詞。

I want to thank you all for your interest and for your questions, a great dialogue today. And we look forward to sharing more of our capturing the tangible benefits of our scale with you next quarter. Have a great weekend. Thanks for joining.

我要感謝大家的興趣和提問，今天的對話很棒。我們期待在下個季度與您分享更多我們從我們的規模中獲得的有形利益。週末愉快。感謝您的加入。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。