西南能源 (SWN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Southwestern Energy's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎來到西南能源 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

The call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Brittany Raiford, Southwestern Energy's Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

通話正在錄音中。我現在將把電話轉給西南能源公司投資者關係總監 Brittany Raiford。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Southwestern Energy's fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining me today are Bill Way, Chief Executive Officer; Clay Carrell, Chief Operating Officer; and Carl Giesler, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到西南能源公司 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是首席執行官 Bill Way； Clay Carrell，首席運營官；和首席財務官 Carl Giesler。

Before we get started, I'd like to point out that many of the comments we make during this call are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties affecting outcomes. Many of these are beyond our control and are discussed in more detail in the risk factors and the forward-looking statements sections of our annual report and quarterly reports and is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，我們在本次電話會議中發表的許多評論都是前瞻性陳述，涉及影響結果的風險和不確定性。其中許多是我們無法控制的，在我們的年度報告和季度報告的風險因素和前瞻性陳述部分中有更詳細的討論，並已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Although we believe the expectations expressed are based on reasonable assumptions, they are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results or developments may differ materially, and we are under no obligation to update them. We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. Earning non-GAAP measures we use are reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release available on our website.

儘管我們認為所表達的預期是基於合理的假設，但它們並不是對未來業績的保證。實際結果或發展可能存在重大差異，我們沒有義務更新它們。我們還可以參考一些非 GAAP 財務措施，這有助於促進跨時期和與同行的比較。我們使用的收入非 GAAP 衡量標準是與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的調節，可以在我們網站上的收益發布中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Bill Way.

我現在將把電話轉給 Bill Way。

Thank you, Brittany, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us this morning. 2022 was a defining year for Southwestern Energy as we continued executing on our strategy and delivering strong results, both financially and operationally. We prioritized debt repayment, reducing debt by over $1 billion and lowering leverage to 1.3x. We complemented debt reduction with $125 million of share repurchases during the year. We successfully integrated the transformative acquisitions we completed in the second half of 2021, which expanded our asset base into Haynesville to complement our high-quality Appalachia position.

謝謝你，布列塔尼，大家早上好。感謝您今天早上加入我們。 2022 年對西南能源來說是決定性的一年，因為我們繼續執行我們的戰略並在財務和運營方面取得了強勁的成果。我們優先考慮償還債務，減少了超過 10 億美元的債務，並將槓桿率降至 1.3 倍。年內，我們通過 1.25 億美元的股票回購來補充債務削減。我們成功整合了我們在 2021 年下半年完成的變革性收購，將我們的資產基礎擴展到海恩斯維爾，以補充我們在阿巴拉契亞地區的優質地位。

We expect that our large-scale integration and development expertise will enable us to drive further operational efficiencies just as we continue to do in Appalachia. We believe that these acquisitions extend the longevity and improve the resilience of our business with deepened high-quality inventory, scale cost economics and expanded optionality. Most importantly, we now have more direct access to the growing Gulf Coast market, including the LNG corridor, where we are already the largest supplier of natural gas to LNG exporters at 1.5 Bcf per day.

我們希望我們的大規模集成和開發專業知識將使我們能夠像我們在阿巴拉契亞繼續做的那樣進一步提高運營效率。我們相信，這些收購通過深化高質量庫存、規模成本經濟和擴大可選性來延長壽命並提高我們業務的彈性。最重要的是，我們現在可以更直接地進入不斷增長的墨西哥灣沿岸市場，包括液化天然氣走廊，我們已經以每天 1.5 Bcf 的價格成為液化天然氣出口商的最大天然氣供應商。

We are strategically positioned to supply increasing energy demands and capitalize on longer-term natural gas fundamentals as well. Over the last decade, U.S. natural gas storage capacity has remained flat while U.S. natural gas supply and demand has more than doubled. The relative contraction in this balancing mechanism for the natural gas market means that smaller changes in relative supply and demand can drive quicker and more significant changes in pricing.

我們的戰略定位是滿足日益增長的能源需求，並利用長期的天然氣基本面。在過去十年中，美國天然氣儲存能力保持平穩，而美國天然氣供需增長了一倍多。這種天然氣市場平衡機制的相對收縮意味著相對供求關係的較小變化可以推動價格更快、更顯著的變化。

Over the last few months, natural gas prices have fallen materially, due at least in part to unseasonably warm weather, reducing demand below greater gas supply. Similar to the sharp run-up in natural gas prices during the hot summer of '22, we believe the recent pullback also reflects structurally increased volatility in the natural gas market. This volatility highlights why hedging remains core in our enterprise risk management practice. With our improved financial strength, we expect to hedge more moderately going forward in line with our framework.

在過去的幾個月裡，天然氣價格大幅下跌，至少部分原因是反常的溫暖天氣，減少了需求而不是更多的天然氣供應。與 22 年炎熱夏季天然氣價格的大幅上漲類似，我們認為近期的回調也反映了天然氣市場結構性波動性的增加。這種波動凸顯了為什麼對沖仍然是我們企業風險管理實踐的核心。隨著我們財務實力的改善，我們預計未來會根據我們的框架更適度地對沖。

Given the current market and in -- the current market and in the near term, we've taken proactive steps to moderate planned activity and associated full year capital by reducing the drilling program by 2 rigs on average versus 2022. This is expected to result in a 2% to 3% production decline at the midpoint of guidance. With our planned 2023 activity levels at recent strip prices, we expect to fund our capital program through net cash flow and preserve the company's productive scale to deliver resilient free cash flow longer term.

鑑於當前市場以及當前市場和短期內，我們已採取積極措施，通過與 2022 年相比平均減少 2 個鑽井平台來減少計劃活動和相關的全年資本。預計這將導致在指導的中點產量下降 2% 至 3%。根據我們計劃的 2023 年活動水平（以最近的剝離價格計算），我們預計通過淨現金流為我們的資本計劃提供資金，並保持公司的生產規模，以提供更長期的彈性自由現金流。

We have additional flexibility and optionality, including through our vertical integration business to adjust activity rather quickly. Any further adjustment will incorporate a multiyear outlook for commodity prices and ultimately, rest on what we believe will best progress our longer-term business and financial objectives. Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, prioritizing debt reduction, we plan to direct free cash flow generated this year to debt repayment. Returning capital to shareholders remains core remains core to our long-term shareholder value proposition as we approach our target debt range of $3.5 billion to $3 billion.

我們有更多的靈活性和選擇性，包括通過我們的垂直整合業務來快速調整活動。任何進一步的調整都將包含對商品價格的多年展望，並最終取決於我們認為最能推進我們的長期業務和財務目標。與我們的資本配置策略一致，優先考慮減少債務，我們計劃將今年產生的自由現金流用於償還債務。隨著我們接近 35 億至 30 億美元的目標債務範圍，向股東返還資本仍然是我們長期股東價值主張的核心。

Longer term, structurally constructive natural gas supply and demand dynamics should remain as energy security and global decarbonization drive continued strong natural gas power burn and LNG export growth. Beyond the freeport facilities imminent returned to service, an additional 6 Bcf per day of U.S. LNG export capacity is under construction with anticipated service dates as soon as late 2024.

長期來看，隨著能源安全和全球脫碳推動天然氣發電量持續強勁燃燒和液化天然氣出口增長，結構性建設性天然氣供需動態應保持不變。除了即將恢復服務的自由港設施外，每天還有 6 Bcf 的美國液化天然氣出口能力正在建設中，預計服務日期最早將於 2024 年底投入使用。

SWN is well positioned to differentially benefit from these developments with our proximity to the U.S. Gulf Coast and direct access to the growing LNG corridor through our firm transportation portfolio, enabling delivery of natural gas from across our business. We believe the actions we have taken over the past few years have better positioned SWN to navigate the current commodity price volatility and grow the long-term value proposition for our shareholders.

SWN 處於有利地位，可以從這些發展中獲得不同的好處，因為我們靠近美國墨西哥灣沿岸，並通過我們公司的運輸組合直接進入不斷增長的液化天然氣走廊，從而能夠從我們的業務中輸送天然氣。我們相信，我們在過去幾年採取的行動使 SWN 能夠更好地應對當前的商品價格波動，並為我們的股東增加長期價值主張。

Let me now turn the call over to Clay for an operational update.

現在讓我將電話轉給 Clay 進行操作更新。

Thank you, Bill, and good morning. In 2022, the team successfully integrated the Haynesville assets from a cultural and performance standpoint, and we delivered on the combined business plan objectives of the company. This is consistent with our established track record in Appalachia. We are carrying that momentum forward into 2023 and expect to drive further execution and performance improvements. During the fourth quarter, we produced 427 Bcfe, including approximately 100,000 barrels per day of liquids. We proactively mitigated the effect of the December winter weather and unplanned midstream downtime safely and with minimal impacts to production. We placed 28 wells to sales during the quarter.

謝謝你，比爾，早上好。 2022 年，該團隊從文化和績效的角度成功整合了 Haynesville 資產，我們實現了公司的綜合業務計劃目標。這與我們在阿巴拉契亞建立的記錄一致。我們將把這種勢頭延續到 2023 年，並期望推動進一步的執行和績效改進。在第四季度，我們生產了 427 Bcfe，包括每天約 100,000 桶液體。我們主動安全地減輕了 12 月冬季天氣和計劃外中游停機的影響，並將對生產的影響降到最低。我們在本季度銷售了 28 口井。

This includes 15 in Appalachia with average lateral lengths of over 16,000 feet and well costs of approximately $850 per foot and 13 in Haynesville with average lateral lengths of just over 9,000 feet and well costs of approximately $1,925 per foot. During the quarter, we invested $537 million of capital, bringing our full year capital spend to $2.2 billion, consistent with the guidance. For the full year, we produced 1.7 Tcfe or 4.7 Bcfe per day comprised of 88% natural gas and 12% liquids, which was above the midpoint of our updated guidance issued in August and above the top end of our original guidance issued in February.

這包括位於阿巴拉契亞的 15 座平均橫向長度超過 16,000 英尺、井成本約為每英尺 850 美元的井和位於海恩斯維爾的 13 座平均橫向長度剛剛超過 9,000 英尺且井成本約為每英尺 1,925 美元的井。本季度，我們投入了 5.37 億美元的資本，使我們全年的資本支出達到 22 億美元，與指導方針一致。全年，我們每天生產 1.7 Tcfe 或 4.7 Bcfe，其中包括 88% 的天然氣和 12% 的液體，高於我們 8 月份發布的更新指南的中點和 2 月份發布的原始指南的上限。

The production outperformance was driven by strong well results and operational execution across the portfolio that resulted in more producing days during the year from accelerated turn-in lines. In our first year in the Haynesville, we hit the ground running, delivering results above expectations and achieving some early operational wins. Most importantly, we delivered basin-leading well performance as evidenced by early time production data published by third parties, confirming the strength of our stacked Haynesville and Middle Bossier position. We also improved upon the prior operators drilling cycle times by approximately 10% while extending lateral lengths to nearly 9,000 feet.

出色的產量是由整個產品組合的強勁油井結果和運營執行推動的，這導致年內由於加速上交線而增加了生產天數。在我們在 Haynesville 的第一年，我們開始運作，交付了超出預期的結果並取得了一些早期的運營勝利。最重要的是，我們提供了盆地領先的油井性能，第三方發布的早期生產數據證明了這一點，證實了我們在 Haynesville 和 Middle Bossier 位置的優勢。我們還將之前的運營商鑽井週期時間縮短了大約 10%，同時將橫向長度擴展到近 9,000 英尺。

On the commercial side, we executed several key agreements that reinforced long-term flow assurance and optionality across gathering, treating and long-haul transport. These agreements bolstered our LNG access with an additional combined 800 million cubic feet per day of transportation on the LEAP and momentum NG3 pipelines that come online by the end of 2024. The value of our assets is evident with year-end proved reserves of 21.6 Tcfe and the associated pretax PV10 of $46.4 billion using SEC pricing. This included 2.4 Tcfe of extensions and discoveries and 1.1 Tcfe of positive performance revisions, which more than offset production and changes in the 5-year development plan.

在商業方面，我們執行了幾項重要協議，加強了收集、處理和長途運輸的長期流動保證和選擇性。這些協議通過在 2024 年底上線的 LEAP 和 momentum NG3 管道上每天額外輸送 8 億立方英尺的液化天然氣，加強了我們的液化天然氣供應。年末探明儲量為 21.6 Tcfe，我們的資產價值顯而易見以及使用 SEC 定價的相關稅前 PV10 為 464 億美元。這包括 2.4 Tcfe 的擴展和發現以及 1.1 Tcfe 的積極性能修正，這超過了 5 年開發計劃中的生產和變化。

We continue to believe that the quality of our reserves and underlying inventory is a differentiator for the company. Updated for the current commodity price environment using 5-year strip prices at year-end 2022, the pretax PV10 of our reserves was $26 billion.

我們仍然相信，我們的儲備和基礎庫存的質量是公司的差異化因素。根據 2022 年底使用 5 年帶鋼價格的當前商品價格環境更新，我們儲備的稅前 PV10 為 260 億美元。

Turning to 2023. As Bill mentioned, our $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion capital program reflects a proactive moderation of activity that is expected to result in a 2% to 3% decline in production. For the year, we expect to average 10 to 11 rigs, which is 2 less rigs than 2022. This will include 7 to 8 rigs in Haynesville and 3 in Appalachia. We also intend to run 2 to 3 frac fleets in Haynesville and 1 to 2 in Appalachia. With our portfolio optionality and the continued strength of liquids pricing, we shifted more activity into our liquids-rich acreage with approximately 8 more wells placed to sales than last year.

轉向 2023 年。正如 Bill 提到的，我們 22 億美元至 25 億美元的資本計劃反映了積極的活動放緩，預計將導致產量下降 2% 至 3%。今年，我們預計平均有 10 到 11 座鑽井平台，比 2022 年少 2 座。這將包括海恩斯維爾的 7 到 8 座鑽井平台和阿巴拉契亞山脈的 3 座鑽井平台。我們還打算在海恩斯維爾運行 2 到 3 個壓裂機隊，在阿巴拉契亞運行 1 到 2 個壓裂機隊。憑藉我們的投資組合的選擇性和液體定價的持續走強，我們將更多的活動轉移到我們富含液體的區域，與去年相比，銷售的井數量增加了約 8 口。

This is expected to grow oil volumes throughout 2023 to an average of 15,000 to 16,000 barrels per day. The team remains highly focused on offsetting inflationary cost impacts by leveraging our strategic supply chain efforts and delivering further operating and development efficiencies. We are targeting further drilling and completion cycle time improvements as well as ongoing completion design and flowback optimization. We are proud of the results the team delivered in 2022 and look forward to continuing to deliver in 2023.

預計這將使整個 2023 年的石油產量增加到平均每天 15,000 至 16,000 桶。該團隊仍然高度關注通過利用我們的戰略供應鏈努力和提供進一步的運營和開發效率來抵消通貨膨脹成本的影響。我們的目標是進一步改進鑽井和完井週期時間以及正在進行的完井設計和返排優化。我們為團隊在 2022 年取得的成果感到自豪，並期待在 2023 年繼續取得成果。

Now I'll turn the call over to Carl.

現在我會把電話轉給卡爾。

Thank you, Clay. In 2022, the company generated approximately $850 million of free cash flow that supplemented with working capital inflows helped repay more than $1 billion of debt, but also returning $125 million to shareholders. We ended the year with debt of $4.4 billion and leverage 1.3x, down from 2.0x at the beginning of the year. At the end of December, we retired our Term Loan B using a revolver and cash on hand. Our credit facility remains the only unsecured component in our capital structure, and recall that in April of last year, we amended that facility transition to unsecured upon achieving investment grade. We also recently issued a redemption notice for 2027 notes, which we intend to call at the end of this month.

謝謝你，克萊。 2022 年，公司產生了約 8.5 億美元的自由現金流，加上營運資金流入，幫助償還了超過 10 億美元的債務，同時還向股東返還了 1.25 億美元。我們年底的債務為 44 億美元，槓桿率為 1.3 倍，低於年初的 2.0 倍。 12 月底，我們使用左輪手槍和手頭現金償還了定期貸款 B。我們的信貸額度仍然是我們資本結構中唯一無擔保的組成部分，並記得去年 4 月，我們在達到投資級別後修改了向無抵押貸款的過渡。我們最近還發布了 2027 票據的贖回通知，我們打算在本月底贖回。

We expect to use cash on hand to fund majority of that redemption for these higher coupon notes, which will further strengthen the balance sheet and result in increased free cash flow. Reducing debt to a $3.5 billion to $3.0 billion target range remains a priority. A strong balance sheet is foundational to a holistic approach to enterprise risk management. Additionally, lower debt makes our business more resilient through commodity price cycles. Earlier this month, S&P improved our outlook to positive, and we remain in one notch below investment grade at all 3 agencies.

我們預計將使用手頭現金為這些高息票據的大部分贖回提供資金，這將進一步加強資產負債表並增加自由現金流。將債務減少到 35 億至 30 億美元的目標範圍仍然是當務之急。強大的資產負債表是企業風險管理整體方法的基礎。此外，較低的債務使我們的業務在商品價格週期中更具彈性。本月早些時候，標準普爾將我們的前景展望上調至正面，我們在所有 3 家機構中的評級仍低於投資級別一級。

We believe our ratings trajectory reflects the strategic steps we have undertaken over the past few years, which have positioned us to better navigate the current commodity price cycle. We have greater scale, a lower inflation-adjusted enterprise cost structure, deeper and higher-quality core inventory as well as a stronger balance sheet.

我們認為我們的評級軌跡反映了我們在過去幾年中採取的戰略步驟，這些步驟使我們能夠更好地駕馭當前的商品價格週期。我們擁有更大的規模、更低的經通脹調整的企業成本結構、更深入和更高質量的核心庫存以及更強大的資產負債表。

With that, please open the call to questions.

有了這個，請打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question comes from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

第一個問題來自 Charles Meade 和 Johnson Rice。

Bill, Clay and Carl and to the whole rest of the Southwestern team there. Clay, this is -- this first one's for you. And I want to ask about the pace of activity and how you're going to drop those rigs over the course of the year? But maybe a better way to approach it is, looking at the 1Q guide, I'm a little -- I can't quite understand why the 1Q guide kind of dips from 4Q and is below the overall '23 guide because it implies your volume is going to grow over the course of the year. So however, you think is the right way to explain whether it's from activity or whether from some -- perhaps some specific dynamics going on in 1Q. Can you help fill in that picture for us?

比爾、克萊和卡爾以及西南隊的所有其他隊員。 Clay，這是——這是給你的第一個。我想問一下活動的速度，以及你打算如何在一年中放棄這些鑽井平台？但也許更好的方法是，看看 1Q 指南，我有點——我不太明白為什麼 1Q 指南從 4Q 開始下降，低於整體 23 指南，因為它暗示你銷量將在這一年中增長。因此，您認為這是解釋它是來自活動還是來自某些 - 也許是第一季度發生的一些特定動態的正確方法。你能幫我們填一下那張圖嗎？

Certainly. So traditionally, our production profiles, as we move from the end of the year to the first quarter of the year, we typically have the lowest production quarter or a drop there and that's tied to the little bit of front-end loading that we have and then some backed-off activity as you go into Q4. And then we start the year up with the full activity for the new year, and there's a little dip there, and then there's some strong recovery. Additionally, when we think about Q4 of 2022 and 2022 in general, we outperformed on production due to the efficiency gains, and we had accelerated turn-in lines, and we continue to live within the updated guidance.

當然。因此，傳統上，我們的生產概況，當我們從年底移動到今年第一季度時，我們通常有最低的生產季度或下降，這與我們擁有的一點前端負載有關然後在進入第四季度時進行一些後退活動。然後我們以新的一年的全部活動開始新的一年，那裡有一點下降，然後有一些強勁的複蘇。此外，當我們考慮 2022 年第四季度和 2022 年的總體情況時，由於效率提高，我們在生產方面的表現優於其他公司，並且我們加快了上交線，我們將繼續遵守更新的指導方針。

So there wasn't accelerated turn-in lines at the end of the year in Q4 to bolster Q1. So that shape, not a surprise to us and kind of consistent with the typical profiles that we have. The pace then, as we move into 2023, is similar to past activity levels, a little bit higher in the first 2 quarters than the back 2, but getting closer to some level loading there as we're moving forward and we look at the 2023 program.

因此，在第四季度年底沒有加速上交線來支持第一季度。所以這種形狀對我們來說並不奇怪，並且與我們擁有的典型配置文件有點一致。然後，隨著我們進入 2023 年，這一速度與過去的活動水平相似，前兩個季度略高於後 2 個季度，但隨著我們向前邁進，越來越接近那裡的某種水平負荷，我們看看2023 計劃。

Got it. So the rig drops are going to be more, I guess, more weighted to the back half of the year, if I understand you right, Clay?

知道了。因此，如果我沒理解錯的話，Clay，我猜鑽機下降會更多，更多地集中在今年下半年？

Well, it will start showing up. We've got a couple that happened in late March. And then there's one that will occur in the second quarter, and then the run rate will be lower in the second half of the year.

好吧，它將開始出現。我們有一對夫婦發生在三月下旬。然後第二季度會發生一個，然後下半年的運行率會降低。

Got it. And then if I could ask one more follow-up on the financial front. Perhaps, for Carl. Carl, can you give us -- you guys have made a lot of progress towards investment grade. And I think a lot of equity investors, not to say rating agencies aren't important, but a lot of equity investors look at them as kind of a lagging indicator rather then leading indication. Can you give us a refresher on what achieving investment grade? How that's going to change the opportunity set for Southwestern, particularly if there's been any shift on the posture of LNG customers?

知道了。然後我能否再問一個關於財務方面的後續問題。也許，對卡爾來說。卡爾，你能不能給我們——你們在投資級別方面取得了很大進展。而且我認為很多股票投資者，並不是說評級機構不重要，而是很多股票投資者將它們視為一種滯後指標，而不是領先指標。您能否向我們介紹一下達到投資級別的內容？這將如何改變西南航空的機遇，特別是如果液化天然氣客戶的態勢發生任何變化？

Yes, happy to. The benefits fall into a few buckets. Most directly it is financial. You obviously lower your cost of debt, and even more important, from at least where I sit, we expand our access to capital. It's just a much bigger market, investment grade compared to noninvestment-grade and that could be important when you most need it. Secondarily, you touched upon it is commercial. We think being investment grade will be a differentiator as people love to engage with producers in long-term LNG constructs. It just shows durability from the right-hand side of the balance sheet. And then the third point, which I don't want to understate is really from a market perspective. As you well know, the market is becoming increasingly journalist, and as they look where to invest the marginal dollar in the gas sector, we believe that being investment grade will help distinguish us in a positive way from our peers.

是的，很高興。好處分為幾類。最直接的是財務。你顯然降低了債務成本，更重要的是，至少從我的角度來看，我們擴大了獲得資本的渠道。與非投資級相比，這是一個更大的市場，投資級，當您最需要它時，這可能很重要。其次，你談到它是商業的。我們認為投資級別將是一個差異化因素，因為人們喜歡與生產商就長期液化天然氣建設進行接觸。它只是從資產負債表的右側顯示耐用性。然後是第三點，我不想低估的是真正從市場角度來看的。如您所知，市場正變得越來越記者化，當他們尋找在天然氣行業投資邊際美元的地方時，我們相信投資級別將有助於以積極的方式將我們與同行區分開來。

The next question comes from Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

You highlighted a focus on conserving your balance sheet and your growth profile sounds like it's more back half weighted. I guess the question is like, at what price would you look to further cut completions, if we do see a derating gas prices in the back half? And on that vein, what flexibility do you have with your non-operated rigs and crews to respond to those changes in gas prices?

您強調了對保護資產負債表的關注，您的增長狀況聽起來像是偏重了一半。我想問題是，如果我們確實看到後半部分天然氣價格下降，您希望以什麼價格進一步削減完工量？在這方面，您的非運營鑽井平台和船員有多大的靈活性來應對天然氣價格的這些變化？

Sure. So as we think about the -- I'll hit the non-op side of it first. That's mainly in Haynesville. We expect to see a drop-off in the non-op activity as we move forward in line with our view that there will be moderated drilling program in the Haynesville across...

當然。因此，當我們考慮 - 我將首先討論它的非操作方面。那主要是在海恩斯維爾。我們希望看到非操作活動的下降，因為我們按照我們的觀點前進，即在海恩斯維爾將有緩和的鑽探計劃......

I think you might have muted yourself by mistake.

我想你可能不小心把自己靜音了。

Some of the value there. And like all of our capital allocation decisions, they have to compete in the rack and stack, and we'll make the corresponding or the appropriate choice around whether we participate and how we would participate going forward, if we did based on the economics of those wells. I think on your first question on where we would maybe delay frac activity, it starts with -- we've got some good optionality in that space because we own 2 of our own frac fleets. Secondly, we are -- we will steadily be watching where commodity prices are at, both in the current month and in the year and what we think from a fundamental perspective to be able to make those decisions, and we'll have those scenarios mapped out, if needed.

那裡有一些價值。就像我們所有的資本配置決策一樣，它們必須在機架和堆棧中競爭，如果我們基於那些井。我認為關於你的第一個問題，即我們可能會在哪些方面推遲壓裂活動，首先是——我們在那個領域有一些很好的選擇，因為我們擁有 2 個我們自己的壓裂船隊。其次，我們 - 我們將穩步關注當月和當年的大宗商品價格，以及我們從基本面角度認為能夠做出這些決定的情況，我們將繪製這些情景出來，如果需要的話。

And a couple of points to add to that. We don't build DUC inventories to try to anticipate the market pricing. We only build DUC inventory for operational efficiency to drive improved performance. And on the overall plan, we intend to invest within cash flow. And in doing so, if there's adjustments that need to be made to the program, we certainly are on top of that and would make them to be able to achieve that objective.

還有幾點要補充。我們不會建立 DUC 庫存來嘗試預測市場定價。我們只建立 DUC 庫存以提高運營效率，從而推動性能提升。在整體計劃上，我們打算在現金流範圍內進行投資。在這樣做的過程中，如果需要對計劃進行調整，我們當然會處於最重要的位置，並使他們能夠實現該目標。

Got it. That's helpful. I lost you in the early part of your response, but I think I follow you that you are seeing some rig drops from the non-operated side, and you will take a call in terms of -- if we do see further non-op activity, you will choose to -- you have the option to participate in them or not, which can allow you to conserve capital.

知道了。這很有幫助。我在你回复的早期失去了你，但我想我跟著你，你看到一些鑽機從非操作側掉落，你會接聽電話 - 如果我們確實看到更多的非操作活動，你會選擇——你可以選擇參加或不參加，這可以讓你節省資金。

You got that right.

你說對了。

Perfect. Okay. And then I guess on the Haynesville, specifically, I mean with the integration process successful and you highlighted that you have operated these assets for a year now, how -- what are the learnings which you have gleaned from that asset year-to-date till date? And then how are you thinking about -- what are the opportunities to further improve the capital efficiency of that asset?

完美的。好的。然後我猜想在 Haynesville，具體來說，我的意思是整合過程成功，你強調你已經運營這些資產一年了，如何 - 你從年初至今從該資產中收集到的經驗教訓是什麼直到約會？然後你怎麼想 - 進一步提高該資產資本效率的機會是什麼？

Yes. So we've definitely had good learnings as we've gone through the full year. I think the team has done a really good job, continuing to see improved well performance and staying on track on that program throughout the year with service challenges and being a new asset. Some of the learnings are around when there are -- when there is some nonproductive time, the appropriate and most efficient way to get back on track and that reduces or it causes you to not have as many days worth of delay and that cuts cost.

是的。因此，在我們度過了整整一年的過程中，我們肯定學到了很多東西。我認為該團隊做得非常好，繼續看到改進的油井性能，並在全年保持在該計劃的正軌上，應對服務挑戰並成為一項新資產。一些學習是在有的時候——當有一些非生產時間時，回到正軌的適當和最有效的方法，這會減少或導致你沒有那麼多天的延遲，從而降低成本。

We made progress on cycle time improvement on the drilling side and on the completion side. And we think that there's further improvement opportunities there as we move forward. We -- connection time, trip time, some things we're doing on our completion designs where we are changing the proppant loading and the step-up in the proppant so that we are more effectively putting the full job away and not having any screen outs and have to go clean that out with coil, which again also adds time. And by eliminating all those, we continue to shrink the cycle times.

我們在鑽井端和完井端的周期時間改進方面取得了進展。我們認為，隨著我們的前進，那裡還有進一步改進的機會。我們 - 連接時間，行程時間，我們在完井設計中正在做的一些事情，我們正在改變支撐劑加載和支撐劑中的升壓，以便我們更有效地完成全部工作並且沒有任何屏幕出局，必須用線圈清理乾淨，這又增加了時間。通過消除所有這些，我們繼續縮短週期時間。

There's broader learnings that are more around the whole development program around how we put the facilities together and enhance the facility design so that we capture the full range of the production potential that each well brings. And if we're seeing a well outperform that we've got the capability to benefit from that with our facility design, and then additionally, the hydraulic modeling that we do across all the midstream providers to make sure that when we bring new wells on, we get the full benefit, and we're not backing off other older wells when we bring those on. So those are a few examples.

關於我們如何將設施組合在一起並改進設施設計，以便我們捕捉每口井帶來的全部生產潛力，圍繞整個開發計劃進行更廣泛的學習。如果我們看到一口井表現出色，我們有能力通過我們的設施設計從中受益，此外，我們對所有中游供應商進行的水力建模以確保當我們開新井時，我們獲得了全部收益，並且在我們啟用這些舊井時不會放棄其他舊井。這只是幾個例子。

Yes. And I'll just add one other one. As you well know, we have 7 high-spec drilling rigs, and more importantly, 7 teams of people who run them. And they transitioned into Haynesville, the learning that happened, the ability for our teams to complete our drill wells as well as the contracted rigs that we have in the fleet gives us a lot more flexibility, gives us negotiating might. And it enables us to work to try to drive cost out and performance in. So I think it's a broad -- that's a broader benefit that we anticipated happening that we're delighted the teams delivered.

是的。我將再添加一個。眾所周知，我們有 7 個高規格的鑽井平台，更重要的是，有 7 個運營團隊。他們轉移到海恩斯維爾，發生的學習，我們團隊完成鑽井的能力以及我們在船隊中擁有的合同鑽井平台給了我們更大的靈活性，給了我們談判的力量。它使我們能夠努力降低成本並提高性能。所以我認為這是一個廣泛的 - 這是我們預期發生的更廣泛的好處，我們很高興團隊交付。

The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Bill, I know you don't have a cliff there anymore, but I would love to get your thoughts on the gas market generally. It speaks, I guess, to your thoughts around it and the price risk management, you talked about earlier, but I want to frame my question like this. We have a little bit above-normal storage currently. We have a forward curve, which is 50% higher, and we lost over 400 Bcf of exports from Freeport. But I'll say again, you've only just got slightly above storage. Do you think the dynamics of this gas market have shifted? And if so, why continue to do swaps rather than colors in your ERM?

比爾，我知道你那裡不再有懸崖了，但我很想听聽你對天然氣市場的看法。我想，這說明了您之前談到的圍繞它和價格風險管理的想法，但我想這樣來構建我的問題。我們目前的存儲量略高於正常水平。我們有一個遠期曲線，高出 50%，我們從自由港損失了超過 400 Bcf 的出口。但我要再說一遍，你的存儲量只是略高於存儲量。您認為天然氣市場的動態是否發生了變化？如果是這樣，為什麼繼續在您的 ERM 中進行交換而不是顏色？

I think the market dynamics have shifted. You have much greater structural volatility in the markets than we've had previously. And that impacts both how we hedge, how much we hedge and hedging will remain part of our enterprise risk management. And there are a number of factors when we consider hedges from a framework, whether it's the cost we're trying to protect, the fundamentals of the commodities, the economic thresholds we're trying to reach or other objectives that we're trying to meet. We use a variety of tools. It depends on what time of the year. It depends on shorter-term market dynamics.

我認為市場動態已經發生了變化。市場的結構波動性比我們以前大得多。這會影響我們對沖的方式、我們對沖的程度以及對沖仍將是我們企業風險管理的一部分。當我們從一個框架考慮對沖時，有很多因素，無論是我們試圖保護的成本、商品的基本面、我們試圖達到的經濟門檻還是我們試圖達到的其他目標見面。我們使用各種工具。這取決於一年中的什麼時候。這取決於短期市場動態。

We want to lock in the protection that we believe we need in certain markets in certain circumstances, but we also want to provide the opportunity to gain the upside by putting on a measured number of colors. And then the whole process is dynamic, meaning that we will -- we've converted collars to swaps where we see the need to do that. And we meet from a risk perspective on these every week to look to shape where it's appropriate and cost-effective shape the tools we have because we believe that some of our -- part of our investor value proposition is giving some of that -- or providing that access to higher pricing when should higher pricing come. We've recently done a number of things around our hedging.

我們希望在某些情況下鎖定我們認為在某些市場中需要的保護，但我們也希望提供機會通過使用一定數量的顏色來獲得優勢。然後整個過程是動態的，這意味著我們將 - 我們已經將項圈轉換為我們認為需要這樣做的交換。我們每週都會從風險的角度開會討論這些問題，以尋找合適的地方和具有成本效益的地方來塑造我們擁有的工具，因為我們相信我們的一些 - 我們投資者價值主張的一部分正在提供一些 - 或者在更高的價格到來時提供獲得更高價格的途徑。我們最近圍繞對沖做了很多事情。

The company is in a much stronger position from a balance sheet perspective and the ability to pull back from high, high hedging numbers that at the time they were implemented had a lot more to do with our transformational growth and a concern -- a particular concern in the market. But defensive hedging and perceived risk to the enterprise are major drivers for how we tend to handle this volatility.

從資產負債表的角度來看，公司處於更有利的地位，並且能夠從實施時的高、高對沖數字中撤回，這在很大程度上與我們的轉型增長和關注——一個特別關注的問題有關在市場上。但防禦性對沖和企業感知風險是我們傾向於如何應對這種波動的主要驅動因素。

I appreciate the full answer, Bill. I guess my follow-up is, I mean, I think we're kind of on the same page in terms of the prospective value given the forward curve, but the market doesn't yet seem ready to believe that, which brings me to the best use of cash. And I guess my question is, since the last quarter, we have now, I guess, a 4%, 5% return on cash. You have a capital structure, which is 45% net debt, but you still have a share buyback program. So isn't building cash a faster way to accelerate market recognition of equity value, if the enterprise value is going to be helped [stock] as it seems to be currently -- versus buybacks, I mean?

我感謝完整的答案，比爾。我想我的後續行動是，我的意思是，我認為我們在給定遠期曲線的預期價值方面有點一致，但市場似乎還沒有準備好相信這一點，這讓我想到現金的最佳使用。我想我的問題是，自上個季度以來，我猜我們現在的現金回報率為 4%、5%。你有一個資本結構，即 45% 的淨債務，但你仍然有一個股票回購計劃。那麼，如果企業價值將得到幫助 [stock] 就像目前看起來的那樣，而不是回購，那麼建立現金不是一種更快的方式來加速市場對股權價值的認可嗎？

I mean, Doug, look, it's a fair question. And at least in the near term, as Bill noted, we intend to direct our free cash flow to repaying debt this year. With $4.4 billion of debt, we have some rows to how to get to our target range of $3.5 billion to $3 billion. And then as we approach that target range, I'm sure we'll evaluate both returning capital. We do believe our stock is undervalued relative to the inherent value -- net equity value of our enterprise, but I think we'll also consider building cash as well. As you know, it's not really sort of a false choice. There is an option there where you can do both. And we think lower debt, including net debt, has the benefit of lowering the volatility of our stock, which has benefits to all parts of our capital structure, including the equity of lowering the overall cost of capital. So those considerations will be very front and center as we progress our capital allocation strategy.

我的意思是，道格，看，這是一個公平的問題。至少在短期內，正如比爾指出的那樣，我們打算將我們的自由現金流用於償還今年的債務。憑藉 44 億美元的債務，我們對如何達到 35 億美元至 30 億美元的目標範圍存在一些爭議。然後當我們接近該目標範圍時，我相信我們會評估這兩個資本回報率。我們確實相信我們的股票相對於內在價值——我們企業的淨股權價值——被低估了，但我認為我們也會考慮建立現金。如您所知，這並不是一個錯誤的選擇。那裡有一個選項，您可以同時執行這兩項操作。我們認為較低的債務，包括淨債務，有利於降低我們股票的波動性，這有利於我們資本結構的所有部分，包括降低整體資本成本的股權。因此，在我們推進資本配置戰略時，這些考慮將是非常重要的。

The next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

Bill, I had just a broader question on how you're approaching activity levels. I think the market was happy to see your plans to shave a couple of rigs off the program, yet you are going to be completing 25 DUCs this year. Just thinking about why not potentially save the DUCs until 2024 when the strip is like 360? And if the strip holds in 2024, would you plan to bring those rigs back?

比爾，關於你如何接近活動水平，我有一個更廣泛的問題。我認為市場很高興看到你們計劃削減幾個鑽井平台，但你們今年將完成 25 個 DUC。想想為什麼不在 2024 年之前將 DUC 保存到 360 度？如果地帶在 2024 年舉行，您是否打算將這些鑽井平台帶回來？

Sure. Arun, I'll maybe hit on the first part of that. As you know, on quite a few of those DUCs, they represent a shift into the liquids-rich portion of Appalachia, which is tied to a stronger view of liquids pricing and that's going to show up in greater value, greater liquids, volumes and the equivalent volumes of those are less. So that's part of the decline in the gas price. When we look at the quality of our Haynesville inventory and the view that -- this is a relatively short-term downturn and the cycle times with bringing those Haynesville wells online, I think with where prices are at right now, we believe that sets us up nicely going into 2024, where we think there's a more constructive market.

當然。阿倫，我可能會談到第一部分。如您所知，在相當多的 DUC 上，它們代表了向阿巴拉契亞富含液體的部分的轉變，這與更強烈的液體定價觀點相關，並且將以更大的價值、更大的液體、體積和這些的等效體積更少。所以這是天然氣價格下降的一部分。當我們查看海恩斯維爾庫存的質量並認為 - 這是一個相對短期的低迷期以及將這些海恩斯維爾油井上線的周期時間，我認為現在的價格，我們相信這讓我們很好地進入 2024 年，我們認為那裡有一個更具建設性的市場。

And if we look at the overall capital program, we're very conscious of the fact that the market dynamics structurally has changed. We're very conscious of the fact that we would like to fund our capital program with a net cash flow. And we're very conscious of the fact that as you think about our capital allocation strategy, investing in maintenance capital versus even growing that when prices were high was the lead off of that to generate the cash flow and free cash flow.

如果我們看一下整體資本計劃，我們就會非常清楚市場動態在結構上已經發生了變化。我們非常清楚我們希望用淨現金流為我們的資本計劃提供資金。我們非常清楚這樣一個事實，當你考慮我們的資本配置策略時，投資於維護資本而不是在價格高時甚至增長是產生現金流和自由現金流的引導。

Following investing within cash -- excuse me, maintenance capital, it was paying down debt and being very deliberate about taking the $1 billion off like we did in '22 and more in the future. And then setting ourselves up so at one point, when we get clear line of sight on the debt, we look to do some additional return of capital to shareholders. If we go forward in time and the prices spike, we'll go right back to where -- we expect to go right back to where we were, which is -- and we'll evaluate this from all different dimensions and economics of returns.

在現金投資之後——對不起，維持資本，它正在償還債務，並且非常慎重地考慮像我們在 22 世紀和未來更多時候所做的那樣減少 10 億美元。然後在某一時刻設置自己，當我們對債務有了清晰的認識時，我們希望為股東做一些額外的資本回報。如果我們及時前進並且價格飆升，我們將回到原來的位置——我們希望回到原來的位置——我們將從所有不同的維度和回報經濟學來評估這一點.

But it would we go back to a maintenance capital type program, and if we did that, then some of the contracted rigs in one form or another will rejoin the fleet and to support that effort. All of that I suppose is that the current dynamic of pricing and supply/demand balance and all of those timing on ramping of LNG and all of those things materialize exactly like everybody wants it to, which probably often never happens. So we'll watch it to phase it in, and we'll continue to keep the productive capacity of the company to deliver sustainable and resilient free cash flow going forward along with paying down debt, along with return of capital as we move forward.

但我們會回到維護資本類型計劃，如果我們這樣做，那麼一些以某種形式承包的鑽井平台將重新加入船隊並支持這一努力。我想所有這些都是當前的定價動態和供需平衡以及液化天然氣的所有這些時間和所有這些事情完全按照每個人的意願實現，這可能永遠不會發生。因此，我們將觀察它逐步實施，我們將繼續保持公司的生產能力，以提供可持續和有彈性的自由現金流，同時償還債務，並在我們前進的過程中實現資本回報。

Great. Certainly, a dynamic environment. My follow-up is, if we look at your guide, using midpoints, you guys are going to complete about 8% more footage this year versus last -- the midpoint of your natural gas production is down, call it, 3.6% or so. I think, 143 tolls or so. Clay, where would you peg? From an activity perspective, where you'd be at a sustaining level and CapEx to support cut sustaining a level of production at SWN?

偉大的。當然，動態環境。我的後續行動是，如果我們看一下你們的指南，使用中點，你們今年將完成比去年多 8% 的鏡頭——你們的天然氣產量的中點下降了，稱之為 3.6% 左右.我想，143 通行費左右。粘土，你會釘在哪裡？從活動的角度來看，您將處於維持水平和資本支出以支持削減以維持 SWN 的生產水平？

Yes. I think a lot of that has to do with how quickly we can get the cost structure back in line with the current price environment. We had 15% to 20% inflation in 2022. That was a $2.2 billion program to deliver the 4.7 Bcf equivalent a day of net production. We got modeled at the midpoint of our guidance another 10% to 15% of inflation coming in. And so I think that we are getting more efficient as evidenced by the lower average rate program that we have built in and where the midpoint of the guidance puts us on production. But I think as -- in a $3 gas price environment, a lot of capital, we believe, needs to -- the cost needs to come way down and on the LOE slide that would lower that annual capital number. But it's kind of a wide range of where that -- how quickly that inflation goes away.

是的。我認為這在很大程度上與我們能夠以多快的速度使成本結構與當前的價格環境保持一致有關。 2022 年我們的通貨膨脹率為 15% 到 20%。這是一項 22 億美元的計劃，旨在提供相當於每天 4.7 Bcf 的淨產量。我們在我們的指導中點模擬了另外 10% 到 15% 的通貨膨脹。所以我認為我們正在變得更有效率，我們已經建立的較低的平均利率計劃以及指導的中點在哪裡證明了這一點讓我們投入生產。但我認為——在 3 美元的汽油價格環境中，我們認為需要大量資本——成本需要大幅下降，而 LOE 下滑將降低年度資本數量。但它的範圍很廣——通貨膨脹消失的速度有多快。

And is that a Haynesville more specific comment versus Appalachia, Clay?

這是海恩斯維爾對阿巴拉契亞山脈更具體的評論嗎，克萊？

So yes, in what we saw in 2022. So -- and Haynesville starts with higher capital. As we see things moving into 2023, we don't see as big of a delta through our supply chain work between Appalachia and Haynesville from an inflation standpoint.

所以是的，正如我們在 2022 年看到的那樣。所以——海恩斯維爾以更高的資本開始。當我們看到事情進入 2023 年時，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們認為阿巴拉契亞和海恩斯維爾之間的供應鏈工作不會有那麼大的三角洲。

Your next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

My first question is on really what I call rig plant. Your rig plant sensitivity. Specifically wondering, how do you all think about more likely this is just the pure Appalachian versus Haynesville activity adjustments when modifying your plan for gas prices. I guess what I'm asking is, saw one of your peers had recently put out a slide, suggesting historically most of the rig declines on gas goes down has been in the Haynesville. So I guess, even maybe ask another way, how do you just think about margins in your Haynesville versus Appalachia at what I'd call sort of notably high or notably low gas prices?

我的第一個問題是關於我所謂的鑽井平台。您的鑽井平台敏感性。特別想知道的是，在修改您的汽油價格計劃時，你們如何認為這更有可能只是純粹的阿巴拉契亞山脈與海恩斯維爾的活動調整。我想我要問的是，看到你的一位同行最近發布了一張幻燈片，表明從歷史上看，大部分因天然氣下降而導致的鑽井平台下降都發生在海恩斯維爾。所以我想，甚至可能會問另一種方式，你如何看待你的海恩斯維爾和阿巴拉契亞的利潤率，我稱之為特別高或特別低的汽油價格？

Yes. I think kind of the direction that we have made some adjustment with the liquids-rich program is indicative of what you're talking about and the resilience of those assets in this price environment. But we try to make sure we're pretty clear that the average core Haynesville versus some of our acreage in the southeast part of Haynesville, we have much lower breakeven there than the average across the whole core of the play. And I commented on that in the script where we've got higher 3-month Q, 6-month Q performance when you look at not only our comments, but the public data and there's corresponding higher EURs on that. So that's why our rack and stack is still a solid mix across our portfolio, but with a lean towards picking up more liquids in the program, which is what we did.

是的。我認為我們對富含液體的計劃進行了一些調整的方向表明了你在說什麼，以及這些資產在這種價格環境下的彈性。但我們試圖確保我們非常清楚海恩斯維爾的平均核心區域與我們在海恩斯維爾東南部的一些土地相比，我們在那裡的收支平衡比整個核心區域的平均水平要低得多。我在腳本中評論了這一點，當您不僅查看我們的評論，還查看公共數據時，我們獲得了更高的 3 個月 Q、6 個月 Q 表現，並且相應的歐元也更高。所以這就是為什麼我們的機架和堆棧在我們的產品組合中仍然是一個堅實的組合，但傾向於在程序中拾取更多的液體，這就是我們所做的。

And we have to point out the ability to move quite [indiscernible]. So the comments that Clay makes, they can materialize and we can begin getting results very quickly.

我們必須指出相當 [音頻不清晰] 移動的能力。因此，Clay 提出的意見可以具體化，我們可以很快開始取得成果。

Yes. No, I think that's important to understand. I think you do have that in the Haynesville. And then maybe just a second question, maybe, Clay, just for you. Just on OFS in place or specifically, very recently, I'm just wondering, what have you seen in cost of given the reduction in rigs and other services by you all and others, have you seen anything more recent as far as OFS cost, just anything you could share there?

是的。不，我認為理解這一點很重要。我想你在海恩斯維爾確實有。然後也許只是第二個問題，克萊，也許只是給你的。就 OFS 到位或特別是最近，我只是想知道，鑑於你們所有人和其他人減少了鑽井平台和其他服務，你看到了什麼成本，你有沒有看到最近的 OFS 成本，你可以在那里分享什麼嗎？

Yes, I can start with we are really proactive in that space. It's early to start seeing tangible movement there. We believe that it needs to happen. And as we move further through the fourth quarter -- I mean, the first quarter, I'm sorry, and into some of the openers that relate to some of the different services, we'll get a better feel for that. We already know in other companies' earnings calls and what we know from private conversation about rigs in the Haynesville starting to come down. I made a comment earlier, we're going to have 2 going down in March and then more in the second quarter. So I think that they should go hand in hand, and we're going to stay really active in that space using all the tools we have from a procurement standpoint.

是的，我可以從我們在那個領域非常積極主動開始。現在開始在那裡看到有形的運動還為時過早。我們相信它需要發生。隨著我們進一步進入第四季度——我的意思是，第一季度，我很抱歉，進入一些與一些不同服務相關的開場白，我們會對此有更好的感覺。我們已經在其他公司的財報電話會議上了解到，我們從私人談話中了解到海恩斯維爾的鑽井平台開始下降。我之前發表過評論，我們將在 3 月份下降 2 個，然後在第二季度下降更多。所以我認為他們應該齊頭並進，我們將從採購的角度使用我們擁有的所有工具在這個領域保持真正的活躍。

The next question comes from Jeoffrey Lambujon with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

下一個問題來自 Jeoffrey Lambujon 和 Tudor、Pickering、Holt。

My first one is on the 2023 budget, just on the moving pieces behind that as we think about the low and high end of the range there. I know you spoke to this a little bit earlier. I don't know, I mean you obviously got the range there on well count for the year by region. But I'd be curious how you're thinking about low cost by asset there? And I appreciate your commentary earlier saying, it's a bit early to talk about improvements in green shoots on the inflation side, but if you could speak to what the guidance contemplates as far as well cost ranges for the Haynesville and Appalachia, and how that can pan what you're seeing today would be helpful.

我的第一個是關於 2023 年預算的，就在我們考慮該範圍的低端和高端時，它背後的移動部分。我知道你之前談過這個。我不知道，我的意思是你顯然已經按地區統計了當年的範圍。但我很好奇你是如何考慮那裡的資產低成本的？我很欣賞你之前的評論說，現在談論通脹方面綠芽的改善還為時過早，但如果你能談談指南考慮的內容以及海恩斯維爾和阿巴拉契亞的成本範圍，以及它如何能夠泛你今天看到的東西會很有幫助。

Sure. So it kind of starts with the fourth quarter results that I talked about in my script around well cost in both of those areas where we were in the mid-$800s in Appalachia and $1,900 in '25 in Haynesville. And our thought there is that's fourth quarter activity represented the bulk of the inflation that we had seen in 2022, and our -- kind of our target is to do all we can do to hold closer to those costs, but that would indicate that we're seeing some inflation reduction. So I think a range in those areas is anywhere from an $850 to $950 in Appalachia.

當然。因此，它從第四季度的結果開始，我在我的腳本中談到了我們在阿巴拉契亞的 800 美元中期和海恩斯維爾 25 年的 1,900 美元的這兩個領域的良好成本。我們的想法是，第四季度的活動代表了我們在 2022 年看到的大部分通貨膨脹，我們的目標是盡我們所能來接近這些成本，但這表明我們'看到一些通貨膨脹減少。因此，我認為這些地區的價格範圍在阿巴拉契亞的 850 美元到 950 美元之間。

And like we've talked about a lot in Haynesville, where you drill matters on your well costs, and it also matters for the well performance. And we have deeper wells with higher bottom hole pressure, which increases well costs, but those wells are the best performing wells in the basin. So our range is a little bit different than some of the shallower, older part of the core Haynesville asset. But I would say that range is anywhere from that $1,925 to a little over $2,100, but we're working on efficiency improvements and inflation improvements.

就像我們在 Haynesville 談了很多，在那裡你鑽井成本很重要，而且它對油井性能也很重要。而且我們的井更深，井底壓力更高，這會增加井的成本，但這些井是盆地中性能最好的井。因此，我們的範圍與海恩斯維爾核心資產的一些較淺、較舊的部分略有不同。但我想說的是，這個範圍從 1,925 美元到略高於 2,100 美元不等，但我們正在努力提高效率和改善通貨膨脹。

Perfect. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on hedge coverage, maybe referencing the added protection for 2024. Just wanted to get a reminder on where you could see that coverage to move to as a percent of production. If we should think about that conversion towards what we see on the 2023 hedge book today or if the balance sheet tempers the appetite for getting to that level as you kind of strengthen that further.

完美的。這很有幫助。然後只是對沖保險的快速跟進，可能會參考 2024 年增加的保護。只是想提醒一下，您可以在哪裡看到保險覆蓋率占生產的百分比。如果我們應該考慮向我們今天在 2023 年對沖賬簿上看到的情況進行轉換，或者資產負債表是否會隨著您進一步加強而抑制達到該水平的胃口。

Yes, it's a good question. And when we think about '24, in particular, the 2 factors that I would say predominate our thinking about level. One, as regarded in the prepared remarks, it's a priority of curing free cash flow to lower debt. That obviously would suggest that we'll look for opportunities to lock in revenues that we think will lead to free cash flow and further that goal. Another factor, again, noted by Bill in the prepared remarks, is the increased structural volatility that we're seeing in the gas market. Long story short, we believe that higher volatility increases in risk at some point of higher hedge levels.

是的，這是個好問題。當我們特別考慮 24 世紀時，我想說的 2 個因素主導了我們對水平的思考。第一，正如準備好的評論中所說，治愈自由現金流以降低債務是當務之急。這顯然表明我們將尋找機會鎖定我們認為會帶來自由現金流並進一步實現該目標的收入。比爾在準備好的發言中再次指出的另一個因素是我們在天然氣市場看到的結構性波動加劇。長話短說，我們認為較高的波動性會在較高對沖水平的某個時刻增加風險。

We entered 2022 largely due to the high leverage we had during the pandemic as well as the 2021 acquisitions that we funded with about $2.4 billion debt with reasonably high hedge levels, 80-plus percent for '22, and then 60-plus percent for 2030. And then as you saw [call '22 and call '23] rise last year, that created a significant unrealized loss for us with our hedge counterparties and effectively created some limits and their willingness to have exposure to us. And now as we're seeing in the current gas environment, the opportunity cost of not being able to participate in locking in those higher prices last year as much as we would have liked is quite high. So in addition to the stronger balance sheet, this increased volatility. I think we'll -- net-net caused us to temper our hedge levels.

我們進入 2022 年主要是由於我們在大流行期間的高槓桿率以及 2021 年的收購，我們以約 24 億美元的債務資助了具有合理高對沖水平的收購，'22 的 80% 以上，然後 2030 年的 60% 以上. 然後正如你所看到的 [call '22 and call '23] 去年上漲，這給我們的對沖交易對手造成了重大的未實現損失，並有效地限制了他們對我們敞口的意願。現在，正如我們在當前的天然氣環境中看到的那樣，去年無法像我們希望的那樣參與鎖定那些更高的價格的機會成本非常高。因此，除了更強大的資產負債表外，這還增加了波動性。我認為我們會 - net-net 導致我們降低對沖水平。

The next question comes from Paul Diamond with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Paul Diamond。

I just wanted to quickly touch on kind of you guys' longer-term thoughts on the LNG take rate or LNG capacity. Currently standing at about 1.5. Just wanted to see if that was -- how the conversations were going around any potential increase to capture that will be expected to be further demand pull in late '24, '25?

我只是想快速談談你們對液化天然氣採用率或液化天然氣產能的長期看法。目前站在1.5左右。只是想看看那是否是 - 談話是如何圍繞任何潛在的增長進行的，以捕捉預計在 24 世紀末、25 世紀末進一步拉動需求的情況？

We have a portfolio of contracts with a number of LNG providers that range in price, in tenure, in quantity, all of that. And it build's sort of a broad and concentration of risk management picture that lets us kind of add and subtract on a much broader opportunity set. Today, we're at [1.5 billion] a day. Again, various lakes of contracts. We've been looking internally as a target somewhere near 2 Bcf a day. Given our total of 5, it seemed -- as we analyze that economically strategically makes some sense.

我們與許多液化天然氣供應商簽訂了一系列合同，這些供應商在價格、期限、數量等方面都有所不同。它構建了一種廣泛而集中的風險管理圖景，使我們能夠在更廣泛的機會集上進行加減。今天，我們每天 [15 億]。同樣，各種合同湖。我們一直在內部尋找每天接近 2 Bcf 的目標。鑑於我們總共有 5 個，它似乎——正如我們分析的那樣，在經濟和戰略上是有道理的。

I think the other thing that we've talked about is access to the international market, we're going to be particularly careful with that to understand what that actually means and how you protect whatever you think you're going to get from enhanced margins or low-cost liquefaction, turning to high cost liquefaction, shipping political dynamics, fiscal, all of the different things you would look at to want to take on that potentially higher priced commodity. And I've used the word potentially. A lot of time, it seems over the last 18 months, it's been quite high.

我認為我們討論的另一件事是進入國際市場，我們將特別小心地理解這實際意味著什麼以及您如何保護您認為您將從增加的利潤中獲得的任何東西或低成本液化，轉向高成本液化，航運政治動態，財政，所有你會看到的不同的東西都想承擔這種可能價格更高的商品。我用了潛在這個詞。很多時候，似乎在過去的 18 個月裡，它一直很高。

And then there's been periods of time -- extended periods of time where it hasn't. And so we'll continue to study that. Our base-in proximity, our already contracted firm transportation gives us all kinds of advantages, but it also mitigates some of the risk associated with entering into those type of agreements. And we've talked to a number of players, we've sort of worked to screen our -- the ideas of who we might want to work with, and we're having some conversation in that space as we speak. So what we've kind of telegraphed is, you get a certain commodity price opportunity set with the Henry Hub-based agreement.

然後有一段時間 - 很長一段時間沒有。因此，我們將繼續研究它。我們的基地就在附近，我們已經簽約的公司運輸為我們提供了各種優勢，但它也減輕了與簽訂此類協議相關的一些風險。我們已經與許多玩家進行了交談，我們已經在某種程度上篩選了我們可能想要與誰合作的想法，並且在我們說話的時候我們正在那個領域進行一些對話。因此，我們傳達的信息是，您可以通過基於 Henry Hub 的協議獲得一定的商品價格機會。

You have a different set of opportunities and risks that come with a higher -- a much higher price contract with a lot of additional risks that we want to understand, and we'll put those together and have more to say about that going forward. Certainly, investment grade. Certainly, all the other things that we've talked about on this call and in the reading materials certainly bode well for how we position the company, and we just want to go into it smartly.

你有一系列不同的機會和風險，這些機會和風險伴隨著更高的——更高的價格合同以及我們想要了解的許多額外風險，我們將把它們放在一起，並在未來有更多的話要說。當然，投資級別。當然，我們在這次電話會議和閱讀材料中談到的所有其他事情肯定預示著我們如何定位公司，我們只是想聰明地進入它。

Understood. And just for clarity, just a quick follow-up. You guys have talked about you wanted to spend within cash flow. But given the structure of volatility, is that more -- should we be thinking that more on like a 12-rolling-month basis? Or is that -- or do you guys view that more as quarter-to-quarter? I guess the question is, should we think around that.

明白了。為了清楚起見，只是快速跟進。你們談過你們想在現金流範圍內花錢。但考慮到波動的結構，是否更多——我們是否應該在 12 個滾動月的基礎上考慮更多？或者是 - 或者你們認為這更像是一個季度？我想問題是，我們是否應該考慮一下。

My comments are around an annual basis. We certainly manage that much tighter, and in this particular macro environment, it's even more -- even tighter, I can assure you. So -- but yes, we'll manage that on an annual basis as well as the long term as we move forward.

我的評論大約是每年一次。我們當然管理得更嚴格，在這個特定的宏觀環境中，它甚至更嚴格，我可以向你保證。所以 - 但是是的，我們將在年度基礎上以及在我們前進的過程中長期管理它。

Our next question comes from Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

我們的下一個問題來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers。

So I wanted to touch on the topic of your in-house drilling and frac fleets. And in so many different parts of the cycle there, the advantages of those are pretty clear. And I was just wondering kind of playing devil's advocate. Thinking about maintenance, thinking about the supply chain and just keeping rig parts and inventory and sort of the cost and challenges of that. Is there anything in this sort of low cost, low price gas environment in the event it does prove persistent that could cause you to shift resources or to favor shifting a little bit more towards, say, an incremental vendor rig instead of constraint on your own fleet?

所以我想談談你們內部鑽井和壓裂車隊的話題。在周期的許多不同部分中，這些部分的優勢非常明顯。我只是想知道是不是唱反調。考慮維護，考慮供應鏈，只保留鑽機零件和庫存，以及相關的成本和挑戰。在這種低成本、低價格的天然氣環境中，如果它確實被證明是持久的，是否有任何東西會導致你轉移資源或傾向於更多地轉向，比如，增量供應商鑽機而不是你自己的限制艦隊？

Maybe never say never, but we feel really good about what benefits our vertical integration brings to the company. And when you look at day rates, the different costs for pressure pumping and rig rates, we've got some inflation insulation that comes from that by owning our own. The performance of those has worked well hand in hand with the third-party providers that we use where the learnings pass between both, and we're able to get the match benefit where both the third-party performance has improved and our own.

也許永不言敗，但我們對垂直整合給公司帶來的好處感到非常滿意。當您查看日費率、壓力泵和鑽機費率的不同成本時，我們通過擁有自己的設施獲得了一些通貨膨脹絕緣。這些性能與我們使用的第三方供應商合作得很好，在兩者之間進行學習，我們能夠在第三方性能和我們自己的性能都得到改善的情況下獲得匹配的好處。

And when you think about utilization, which I think is the biggest part of that discussion, with our increased scale from the acquisitions that we've done, we have a nice mix of 7 company-owned drilling rigs and 2 company-owned frac fleets as part of a total program that is pretty materially bigger than that to where it gives us the optionality in a low-price environment, if we're cutting back to drop the third parties and then continue to have the base activity done by our company-owned equipment.

當你考慮利用率時，我認為這是討論的最大部分，隨著我們完成的收購規模的擴大，我們擁有 7 個公司擁有的鑽井平台和 2 個公司擁有的壓裂船隊作為一個整體計劃的一部分，這個計劃比它在低價環境中為我們提供選擇權要大得多，如果我們削減開支以放棄第三方，然後繼續讓我們公司完成基礎活動-擁有的設備。

And a couple of other comments on top of that. We benchmark this business, and it has to earn its own return. And so Clay and his team assure us that they go through all of that just as if it were it's own little company, that it has -- that it delivers on the commitments that it makes. We have consistent teams on these rigs, so we know who's coming. They happen to be employees, which is great.

除此之外還有一些其他評論。我們對標這項業務，它必須獲得自己的回報。因此，克萊和他的團隊向我們保證，他們經歷了所有這些，就像它是自己的小公司一樣，它已經履行了它所做的承諾。我們在這些鑽井平台上擁有一致的團隊，所以我們知道誰來了。他們恰好是員工，這很棒。

And so they're rewarded the way the company is rewarded. And they -- their capability to learn and deliver equal or better performance has been consistent in this process. They are only allowed to work for SWN. In my experience, when you have a vertical integration business like this and you allow it to go off and work for somebody else, it's easy to lose the plot on where their home base is. So when you take those and along with Clay's and the rigor that we put in terms of making sure this is the right thing for us to be doing, I think I'm very confident that we're in a better spot.

因此，他們得到的回報與公司獲得回報的方式相同。他們 - 他們學習和提供同等或更好績效的能力在此過程中始終如一。他們只被允許為 SWN 工作。根據我的經驗，當你擁有這樣的垂直整合業務並允許它為其他人工作時，很容易失去對他們大本營所在地的了解。因此，當你接受這些以及 Clay 和我們為確保這是我們要做的正確事情而採取的嚴格措施時，我認為我非常有信心我們處於一個更好的位置。

Great. I'm discussing with another gas producer earlier in the earnings season, the topic came up of -- and it's a bullish topic to maybe sort of help offset this near-term softness we have maybe in sentiment that with LNG coming on that there are going to be these big step functions upwards of demand from LNG coming on in '24, but I guess, in 2025, '26, especially. And I'm just wondering about your thoughts about the industry's ability sort of, hopefully, this one to be working in concert to really be able to supply the production capacity in aggregate that's going to be needed to meet those big steps upward in demand?

偉大的。我在財報季早些時候與另一家天然氣生產商討論，這個話題出現了——這是一個看漲的話題，可能有助於抵消我們可能認為隨著液化天然氣的出現而出現的近期疲軟24 年液化天然氣的需求將成為這些大的進步函數，但我想，在 2025 年，尤其是 26 年。我只是想知道你對這個行業的能力的看法，希望這個行業能夠協同工作，真正能夠提供滿足那些大的需求上升步驟所需的總體生產能力？

Well, this productive capacity of our industry is quite powerful and robust in general. And so the ability for this industry to respond has been there, but I'll mute that with pullbacks in investment, with challenges on infrastructure, with challenges on getting gas from one place to another around major cities. All of this is going to be built on the Gulf Coast, and so it goes quite far. Anyway, I think there are risks to that. And so when you -- and then not everybody can grow, not everybody has the capability, the access to the markets, the access to where this -- all this LNG is going to show up. And so I think Haynesville can help us.

那麼我們這個行業的這個生產能力總體上還是比較強大的。因此，這個行業的反應能力一直存在，但我會通過投資回撤、基礎設施挑戰以及在主要城市周圍將天然氣從一個地方輸送到另一個地方的挑戰來消除這一點。所有這些都將建在墨西哥灣沿岸，因此它走得很遠。無論如何，我認為這存在風險。所以當你 - 然後不是每個人都能成長，不是每個人都有能力，進入市場，進入這個地方 - 所有這些液化天然氣都會出現。所以我認為海恩斯維爾可以幫助我們。

Appalachia, without infrastructure, is getting approved. The ability for that basin to grow. And if LNG grows to the upper end of the scale, we're going to need Haynesville, Appalachia and the Permian to supply. And I think it -- there is some risk to that. At the same time, just to give you a balanced view, building all of this at one time probably means that some come on exactly at the time that they said they were coming on, 10 a.m. on Tuesday. The rest of it is, it becomes a challenge. You've got to have skilled workers, got to have scale capability to get it all built.

沒有基礎設施的阿巴拉契亞正在獲得批准。該盆地生長的能力。如果液化天然氣增長到規模的高端，我們將需要海恩斯維爾、阿巴拉契亞和二疊紀來供應。我認為 - 這有一些風險。同時，為了給你一個平衡的觀點，一次構建所有這些可能意味著有些人恰好在他們說的時間開始，週二上午 10 點。剩下的就是，它成為一個挑戰。您必須擁有熟練的工人，必須具有規模化能力才能全部建成。

And so we take a broad view of that. Fortunately, for us, 65% of our gas can get to the LNG corridor. Fortunately, our reserves are deep and broad, and we are proximal to that growth. And any firm transportation capacity that we need, we already have contracted so that when it's built, it's ours. And there is -- we're set up to be one of the major suppliers going forward, I'll leave it at that.

所以我們對此有一個廣泛的看法。幸運的是，對我們來說，我們 65% 的天然氣可以到達 LNG 走廊。幸運的是，我們的儲備豐富而廣泛，而且我們接近於這種增長。我們需要的任何牢固的運輸能力，我們已經簽訂了合同，所以當它建成時，它就是我們的。還有——我們將成為未來的主要供應商之一，我會把它留在那兒。

The next question comes from Gregg Brody with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Gregg Brody。

I know we're at the end of the call. Just a question. On the fourth quarter, you had a nice working capital benefit there. Can you talk about whether you expect that to continue this year? And is that potential source of cash?

我知道我們已經結束通話了。就一個問題。在第四季度，你在那裡獲得了不錯的營運資金收益。你能談談今年是否會繼續這種情況嗎？那是潛在的現金來源嗎？

Yes. Good question. We typically have that benefit in the first quarter and then in the fourth quarters with the second third being more of an outflow, and we would expect that same dynamic to continue through this year.

是的。好問題。我們通常在第一季度和第四季度獲得這種收益，而第二個季度更多的是資金流出，我們預計今年將繼續保持同樣的勢頭。

Great. And then just one more here. As you've alluded to, you're very focused on investment grade, you're going to pay down debt. How do you think about buying back stock this year, considering what's happening with your stock price? And is it -- how do you prioritize that over buybacks?

偉大的。然後這裡還有一個。正如你所暗示的，你非常關注投資級別，你將償還債務。考慮到您的股價變化，您如何看待今年回購股票？它是——你如何優先考慮回購？

Yes. Another good question. We have been consistent not only on this call, but really over much of the last year, even since we announced it, buyback authorization back in June. The prioritization of repaying debt being paramount, and this year, at least at the current commodity price outlook, we expect our free cash flow to go and reduce that. And while we agree, stock price today is a lot less than we believe it's inherently worth. We do believe that paying down debt has a lot of benefits for, again, all parts of the capital structure.

是的。另一個好問題。我們不僅在這次電話會議上保持一致，而且在去年的大部分時間裡都保持一致，甚至自從我們在 6 月份宣布回購授權以來也是如此。優先償還債務是最重要的，今年，至少在當前的商品價格前景下，我們預計我們的自由現金流將會減少。雖然我們同意，但今天的股價遠低於我們認為的內在價值。我們確實相信，償還債務對資本結構的所有部分都有很多好處。

It lowers the volatility, which has benefits for equity and lower cost of capital. And candidly, you're directly transitioning your enterprise value through debt to equity when you do that as well. So more of the asset values to put asset with the debt that should at least theoretically not practically should practically too we've seen as beneficial to your equity value. So this year, I anticipate us -- again, using free cash flow, as Bill said, we paid debt. And as we approach that target with greater confidence, both in terms of time and also commodity price outlook, we can do both as we've done in the past and would expect to do so.

它降低了波動性，這有利於股權和較低的資本成本。坦率地說，當您這樣做時，您也是在通過債務直接將企業價值轉變為股權。因此，更多的資產價值將資產與債務放在一起，至少在理論上應該不應該在實踐中也應該這樣做，我們認為這對您的股權價值有利。所以今年，我預計我們——再次使用自由現金流，正如比爾所說，我們償還了債務。隨著我們以更大的信心接近該目標，無論是在時間上還是在大宗商品價格前景方面，我們都可以像過去那樣做，並期望這樣做。

You are speaking the language that the rating agencies like to hear.

你說的是評級機構喜歡聽的語言。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bill Way for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Bill Way 的任何閉幕詞。

I want to thank you all for your questions. I think they were a terrific, great discussion. And thank you for your interest in Southwestern Energy, and we look forward to sitting together in another quarter and sharing with some additional achievements that we've made. In the meantime, have a great weekend, and thanks again for joining us.

我要感謝大家提出的問題。我認為他們是一次很棒的討論。感謝您對西南能源的興趣，我們期待著在另一個季度坐在一起，分享我們取得的一些額外成就。同時，祝週末愉快，再次感謝您加入我們。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may all now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。你們現在可能都斷開連接了。