Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Grupo Supervielle second quarter 2024 earnings call. This is Ana Bartesaghi, Treasurer and IRO. Today's conference call is being recorded. (Event Instructions) Speaking during today's call will be Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO; and Mariano Biglia, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us is Alejandro Stengel, Vice Chairman of the Board and CEO of Banco Supervielle. All will be available for the Q&A session.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Grupo Supervielle 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我是 Ana Bartesaghi，財務主管兼 IRO。今天的電話會議正在錄音。（活動說明）在今天的電話會議上發言的將是我們的董事長兼執行長 Patricio Supervielle；和我們的財務長馬裡亞諾·比格利亞 (Mariano Biglia)。加入我們的還有 Banco Supervielle 董事會副主席兼執行長 Alejandro Stengel。所有內容將在問答環節提供。

As a reminder, today's call will contain forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs are subject to several risks and uncertainties. I refer you to the forward-looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議將包含基於管理層當前預期和信念的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到多種風險和不確定性的影響。我建議您參閱我們收益報告中的前瞻性陳述部分以及最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映新的或變更的事件或情況的義務。

Patricio, please go ahead.

帕特里西奧，請繼續。

Thank you, Ana. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Please turn to slide 3 for an overview of the quarter results. Our strategic actions are driving the desired results. We deployed an early-mover strategy that resulted in solid loan volume growth and market share gains. Asset quality remained healthy with a record low NPL ratio and a coverage ratio of over 300%. A robust capitalization with our (inaudible) ratio of 21% position us well to continue driving share gains.

謝謝你，安娜。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。請參閱投影片 3 以了解本季業績概覽。我們的策略行動正在推動預期結果的實現。我們部署了先行者策略，實現了貸款量的穩健成長和市場份額的成長。資產品質保持健康，不良貸款率創歷史新低，撥備覆蓋率超過300%。我們的（聽不清楚）比率為 21%，穩健的資本使我們能夠繼續推動股價上漲。

We reported return on equity of 10% for the quarter and 22% for the first half. As anticipated, NIM declined during the quarter reflecting lower spreads following the sharp drop in interest rates earlier in the year. The growth in fee income across our banking asset management and our online brokerage operations also contributed to the quarter's solid performance.

我們報告本季股本回報率為 10%，上半年股本回報率為 22%。正如預期的那樣，淨利差在本季下降，反映出今年稍早利率大幅下降後利差下降。我們的銀行資產管理和線上經紀業務的費用收入成長也為本季的穩健業績做出了貢獻。

Furthermore, our efforts to enhance operating efficiencies and while staying closely connected to our customers continue to yield positive results. Let me spend a few minutes discussing the key drivers of our performance during the quarter. Digital adoption continues to play a key role among retail customers.

此外，我們在提高營運效率以及與客戶保持密切聯繫的同時所做的努力繼續取得積極成果。讓我花幾分鐘討論本季業績的關鍵驅動因素。數位化應用繼續在零售客戶中發揮關鍵作用。

Digital customers now make up 65% of our total customer base with 56% of transactions completed through are up from 42% a year ago, indicating strong wallet adoption while, lowering our cost to serve. We've also made significant strides in our corporate and middle market customer segments with the loan book growing sequentially by an impressive 42% in real terms, as we focus on supported export-oriented value chains.

數位客戶現在占我們總客戶群的 65%，完成的交易量比一年前的 42% 增加了 56%，這表明錢包採用率很高，同時降低了我們的服務成本。由於我們專注於受支援的出口導向價值鏈，我們在企業和中間市場客戶群方面也取得了重大進展，貸款帳面按實際價值計算連續增長了 42%，令人印象深刻。

We closed the quarter with higher balances of sight deposits among corporate clients, leading to increase transaction and volumes as we advance on becoming the primary bank. The leading online brokerage platform in Argentina contributed 19% of total fee income with all key metrics showing a strong performance.

本季結束時，企業客戶的活期存款餘額增加，隨著我們成為主要銀行的目標，交易量和交易量增加。阿根廷領先的線上經紀平台貢獻了總費用收入的 19%，所有關鍵指標均表現強勁。

Active comes doubled year-over-year to a record high of 566,000 clients in July. Assets under management grew 23% sequentially in real terms, hitting the $1 billion milestone while sustaining solid transaction activity.

7 月活躍客戶數較去年同期翻倍，達到創紀錄的 566,000 名客戶。管理資產以實際價值計算連續成長 23%，達到 10 億美元的里程碑，同時維持穩健的交易活動。

Lastly, we are advancing and driving digital adoption and penetration in our insurance and asset management businesses. We have broadened our digital insurance offering for both corporate customers and retail customers, resulting in a strong, more than 25% year-to-date growth in car insurance.

最後，我們正在推進和推動保險和資產管理業務中的數位化採用和滲透。我們擴大了企業客戶和零售客戶的數位保險產品範圍，導致汽車保險今年迄今實現了超過 25% 的強勁成長。

In asset management, our focused effort has helped us increase our market share to 2.5%. Enhancing the customer experience, a key factor behind our products and service initiatives, and we are very pleased that we continue to achieve increases in our NPS across all segments.

在資產管理方面，我們的專注努力幫助我們將市場佔有率提高到2.5%。增強客戶體驗是我們產品和服務計畫背後的關鍵因素，我們很高興我們在所有細分市場中繼續實現 NPS 的成長。

Turning to slide 4. Key economic highlights for the quarter include the approval and regulation of the Ley de Bases along with ongoing deregulation efforts achieving a fiscal surplus of plus 0.4% as of June and inflation is faster than expected with 2024 protections now at 127%, down from January's 227%. The Central Bank deregulation efforts are further enhancing the business environment.

轉到投影片 4。本季的主要經濟亮點包括Ley de Bases 的批准和監管，以及持續的放鬆管制努力，截至6 月實現財政盈餘增加0.4%，通膨快於預期，2024 年保護率目前為127%，低於1 月的227% %。央行放鬆管制的努力正在進一步改善營商環境。

While the overall macroeconomic environment is improving, some areas still require attention, including ensuring the system ability of the Central Bank's $17 billion reserve increase and maintaining public support for ongoing reforms. Under this new environment, the financial industry is seeing early improving signs of recovery as loan demand growth return.

雖然整體宏觀經濟環境正在改善，但一些領域仍需要關注，包括確保央行170億美元準備金增加的系統能力以及維持公眾對正在進行的改革的支持。在新環境下，隨著貸款需求成長回升，金融業出現了初步改善的復甦跡象。

To ensure sustainable growth, the next milestone is the lifting of the foreign exchange restrictions. Our financial results today reflect the actions we have taken over the past few years, including new product offerings, and efficiency measures together with policies established under the Milei government. As a result, we have a solid foundation in place and are well positioned to benefit as demand continues to recover.

為了確保永續成長，下一個里程碑是取消外匯限制。我們今天的財務表現反映了我們過去幾年所採取的行動，包括新產品供應、效率措施以及 Milei 政府制定的政策。因此，我們擁有堅實的基礎，並處於有利地位，可以隨著需求的持續復甦而受益。

Now moving to slide 5. We have been transitioning our asset base away from Central Bank securities to a private sector. This is reflected in the increasing loan-to-deposit ratio, which stood at 59% at quarter end, up from 32% at year-end 2023. This reflects a drop in the share of Central Bank's securities over the total assets to 28% from 40% at year-end 2023, while loans increased our share by 12 percentage points to 37% at the end of June.

現在轉到投影片 5。我們一直在將我們的資產基礎從中央銀行證券轉向私營部門。這反映在貸存比率的上升上，季末貸存比率為 59%，高於 2023 年底的 32%。這反映出央行證券佔總資產的比重從2023年底的40%下降至28%，而貸款的比重則增加了12個百分點，至6月底的37%。

This trend is expected to continue during the second half of the year. In this context, we expect things to normalize to historical levels and NFI to grow over time even with lower yields as demand -- credit demand strengthens.

預計這一趨勢將在今年下半年持續。在這種背景下，我們預計情況將正常化至歷史水平，並且隨著需求——信貸需求的增強，即使收益率較低，NFI也會隨著時間的推移而增長。

As shown on slide 6, strategic move towards capturing loan demand early in the recovery allow us to expand our loan portfolio by 36% sequentially in real terms. This resulted in total market share gains 30 basis points sequentially and 70 basis points year-to-date.

如投影片 6 所示，在復甦初期捕捉貸款需求的策略性舉措使我們能夠將貸款組合按實際價值連續擴大 36%。這導致總市佔率較上季成長 30 個基點，年初至今成長 70 個基點。

Importantly, we gained share across all products. As of June, SMEs and corporate loans accounted for 65% of our total loan portfolio, while retail loans accounted for the remaining 35%. In corporate loans, we remained focused in servicing high potential export value, export-oriented value chains as we leverage our exposure to high potential industries, including mining, agri business and oil and gas.

重要的是，我們在所有產品中都獲得了份額。截至6月，中小企業和企業貸款占我們貸款組合總額的65%，而零售貸款佔剩餘的35%。在企業貸款方面，我們繼續專注於為高潛力出口價值、出口導向價值鏈提供服務，因為我們利用了對高潛力行業的投資，包括採礦、農業企業以及石油和天然氣。

In retail loans, we are strategically focused on lowest segments, including mortgages, car loans, payroll loans and credit cards for existing customers.

在零售貸款方面，我們策略性地專注於最低的細分市場，包括現有客戶的抵押貸款、汽車貸款、薪資貸款和信用卡。

Looking ahead, we expect to continue scaling our mortgage loan product introduced earlier next year, in the year. We also plan to continue scaling personal loans as well as car loans leveraging our number two position in auto loan originations. In sum, we are well positioned in sectors that are leading the recovery.

展望未來，我們預計將在今年稍早繼續擴大我們推出的抵押貸款產品。我們還計劃利用我們在汽車貸款發放方面的第二地位，繼續擴大個人貸款和汽車貸款規模。總而言之，我們在引領復甦的行業中處於有利地位。

We are focusing on originating short-term loans to corporate and asset-backed loans to individuals together with stringent credit policies, including portfolio limits according to the health of each industry to ensure an automized loan book at industries and customers. This, coupled with a strong capitalization position us well to continue to drive significant growth as demand continues to recover.

我們專注於向企業發放短期貸款，向個人發放資產支持貸款，並制定嚴格的信貸政策，包括根據每個行業的健康狀況設定投資組合限額，以確保行業和客戶的貸款帳簿自動化。再加上強大的資本實力，隨著需求的持續復甦，我們將繼續推動顯著成長。

Now let me turn the call to Mariano. Please go ahead.

現在讓我把電話轉給馬裡亞諾。請繼續。

Thank you, Patricio, and good day, everyone. Now let's direct our attention to slide 7. To take a deeper look at our performance for the first half of the year. Net income increased to over ARS72 billion, achieving a 22% ROE in real term, up significantly from ARS 26 billion and a real ROE of 10% in the first half of the year, driven primarily by an increase in net financial income.

謝謝你，帕特里西奧，祝大家美好。現在讓我們將注意力轉向投影片 7。深入了解我們上半年的表現。淨利潤增至超過 720 億澳元，實際股本回報率達到 22%，較上半年的 260 億澳元和 10% 的實際股本回報率大幅提高，這主要是由於淨財務收入的增長。

Starting with revenues. Net financial income increased 69%, driven by higher yields on our investment portfolio and a reduction of 140 basis points in the cost of funds. Recall that interest rates increased significantly in the second half of last year and declined sharply following the removal of enforcement interest rates in March.

從收入開始。由於我們的投資組合收益率提高以及資金成本降低 140 個基點，淨財務收入增長了 69%。回想一下，去年下半年利率大幅上升，並在三月取消強制執行利率後大幅下降。

Net fee income, however, declined 7% as fees increased below the 272% accumulated inflation. Structural cost efficiencies contributed to a 9% year-on-year decline in costs, as I will explain in more detail shortly. Furthermore, strategic shift in loan allocation towards middle market corporate and payroll customers led to a 3% reduction in net loan loss provisions.

然而，由於費用成長低於 272% 的累積通貨膨脹率，淨費用收入下降了 7%。結構性成本效率導致成本年減 9%，我稍後將對此進行更詳細的解釋。此外，貸款配置向中間市場企業和薪資客戶的策略轉變導致淨貸款損失撥備減少了 3%。

These positive impacts more than offset the 255% increase in inflation adjustments on higher net monetary assets and inflation during the period. Alongside the 83% increase in other net losses attributable to higher turnover tax and provisions related for strategic initiatives.

這些正面影響遠遠抵消了同期因貨幣資產淨值和通膨上升而導致的通膨調整幅度 255% 以上。此外，由於流轉稅和策略性措施相關準備金的增加，其他淨虧損增加了 83%。

Moving next to slide 8 for the discussion of our loan portfolio. As Patricio noted, we have continued to (inaudible) shift our asset base towards a larger mix of private sector loans, and you can see this position in the bar chart.

接下來轉到投影片 8，討論我們的貸款組合。正如帕特里西奧指出的那樣，我們繼續（聽不清楚）將我們的資產基礎轉向更大的私營部門貸款組合，您可以在條形圖中看到這一位置。

At the same time, we have gained share across most loan products in both our commercial and retail portfolios. With respect to mix by portfolio type, as shown on the pie chart. Corporate loans account for approximately two-third of our total loan portfolio. With this portfolio, short-term promissory notes stand out, increasing our share of the total corporate book by 2 percentage points to 54% followed by overdrafts at 22% and foreign trade loans at 18% of this book.

同時，我們的商業和零售投資組合中大多數貸款產品的份額都增加了。關於按投資組合類型進行的組合，如圓餅圖所示。公司貸款約占我們貸款組合總額的三分之二。在這項投資組合中，短期本票脫穎而出，使我們在公司帳簿總額中的份額增加了 2 個百分點，達到 54%，其次是透支，佔帳簿的 22%，外貿貸款佔帳簿的 18%。

Within retail loans, credit cards accounted for 32% of the book followed by mortgages and personal loans at 27% each and car loans at 14% of the total retail book, where we rank second in car loan origination.

在零售貸款中，信用卡佔零售總額的 32%，其次是抵押貸款和個人貸款，各佔 27%，汽車貸款佔零售總額的 14%，我們在汽車貸款發放方面排名第二。

As shown on slide 9, our total deposit base remains stable sequentially in real terms, although the mix changed slightly. Foreign exchanges increased 4% above industry trends, with the foreign exchange share over total deposits increasing 1 percentage points. As shown on the chart to the right, peso deposits posted a slight sequential decline but with a greater mix of lower cost savings and checking account deposits.

如投影片 9 所示，儘管結構略有變化，但我們的總存款基礎以實際價值計算仍保持穩定。外匯佔產業增幅4%，佔存款總額的比重提高1個百分點。如右圖所示，比索存款環比略有下降，但更多的是較低成本儲蓄和支票帳戶存款。

Wholesale funding declined reflecting asset and liability management following the sharp drop in the monetary policy interest rates. Moving next to slide 10. As anticipated in our prior call, lower inflation on yields from peso denominated government securities and loans in the context of lower policy rates and industry loan penetration still at historical lows resulted in a 43% sequential decline in net financial income to ARS 203 billion.

批發融資下降反映了貨幣政策利率大幅下降後的資產負債管理。移至投影片 10 旁邊。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所預期的那樣，在政策利率較低和行業貸款滲透率仍處於歷史低位的背景下，以比索計價的政府證券和貸款收益率通膨率較低，導致淨財務收入季減43%，至2030 億阿根廷比索。

The sharp decrease in policy interest rates and lower volumes of interest-bearing liabilities drove a 30 percentage point reduction quarter-on-quarter in cost of funds in the quarter. Also recall that in first Q '24, higher real yields on inflation NIM government securities benefited from peak inflation rates of December and January.

政策利率大幅下降和付息負債規模下降，帶動本季資金成本較上季下降30個百分點。另請回想一下，24 年第一季度，NIM 政府證券的通膨實際收益率較高，受益於 12 月和 1 月的通膨率高峰。

Moving on to slide 11. Expenses declined 15% year-on-year and 8% sequentially, primarily due to the efficiencies in personnel, D&A and administrative costs as we further advance on reducing our cost to serve. The sequential performance was partly offset by increased promotional activity to strengthen our position in a more dynamic environment.

繼續看投影片 11。費用年減 15%，季減 8%，這主要是由於我們進一步降低服務成本，從而提高了人員、D&A 和管理成本的效率。連續的業績被增加的促銷活動部分抵消，以加強我們在更具活力的環境中的地位。

Efficiency improved to just below 51% from almost 63% a year ago. On a sequential basis, however, the efficiency ratio increased from 34% in the first quarter which benefited from a nonrecurring gain in peso bonds that resulted in an exceptionally high need. Turning to slide 12. We closed the quarter with the CET1 ratio of slightly over 21%, declining 390 basis points sequentially.

效率從一年前的近 63% 提高到略低於 51%。然而，環比來看，效率比率從第一季的 34% 上升，這得益於比索債券的非經常性收益，導致需求異常高。轉到投影片 12。本季結束時，CET1 比率略高於 21%，比上一季下降 390 個基點。

This performance reflects growth in risk-rate reflecting strong loan growth in the quarter, together with a ARS 20 billion dividend payment made in April and the ARS 8 billion shares repurchased during the quarter. This was partially compensated by capital creation in second Q '24.

這一業績反映了風險率的成長，反映了本季貸款的強勁增長，加上 4 月份支付的 200 億阿根廷比索的股息以及本季回購的 80 億阿根廷比索的股票。這在 24 年第二季的資本創造中得到了部分補償。

Moving on to slide 13. In the current context, we are adjusting our perspectives for 2024 as follows. As credit demand continues to recover, we now expect peso loans growth to step up above 40% in real terms with retail loans increasing their share of total loans. Peso deposits are expected to continue growing above inflation, although at a faster pace with total denominated deposits expected to gain share of total funding.

繼續看投影片 13。在當前背景下，我們對 2024 年的展望進行如下調整。隨著信貸需求持續復甦，我們現在預計比索貸款實際成長將超過 40%，零售貸款佔總貸款的比例將增加。比索存款預計將繼續以高於通膨的速度成長，儘管成長速度較快，計價存款總額預計將增加融資總額的份額。

The NPL ratio is anticipated to convert to levels in line with higher credit demand, up from the historical low reported this quarter with a net cost of risk remaining at 2023 levels. With inflation receding, we now expect expenses to decline in real terms, as we continue to see the benefit from efficiency and in headcount on branches.

不良貸款率預計將從本季報告的歷史低點上升到與信貸需求增加相符的水平，淨風險成本仍保持在 2023 年的水平。隨著通貨膨脹的消退，我們現在預計實際支出將下降，因為我們繼續看到效率和分支機構人數的好處。

We maintained our ROE expectation for the year at approximately 15%. During this transition, as we continue to shed to private central loans from public securities, we expect to see a lower NIM pressure in ROE in the third quarter.

我們維持今年 ROE 預期在 15%左右。在這轉型過程中，隨著我們繼續從公共證券轉向私人中央貸款，我們預計第三季淨利差和股本回報率的壓力將會下降。

Lastly, as loan growth accelerates, we anticipate closing the year with a CET1 ratio between 17% to 20% compared to our previous expectations of 20% to 25%.

最後，隨著貸款成長加速，我們預計今年結束時 CET1 比率將在 17% 至 20% 之間，而我們先前的預期為 20% 至 25%。

This ends our prepared remarks. We are ready to open it for questions. Ana, please go ahead.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們準備好打開它以供提問。安娜，請繼續。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

Brian Flores with Citi.

花旗銀行的布萊恩‧弗洛雷斯。

I have a question on your turnover tax situation, right? Because you made a provision there. I think it's ARS 33 billion. I wanted to ask you, how should -- I mean, obviously, you're not expecting to be paying going forward taxes. I just wanted to know when would you have the final decision on this? And if the provision needs to be adjusted by inflation going forward, and this will be updated sequentially on your income statement and balance sheets. How should we think about this going forward?

我想問一下你們的流轉稅狀況，對嗎？因為你在那裡做了規定。我認為是 330 億阿根廷比索。我想問你，我的意思是，顯然，你不希望繳納未來的稅金。我只是想知道你什麼時候會對此做出最終決定？如果準備金需要根據未來的通貨膨脹進行調整，這將在您的損益表和資產負債表上依序更新。未來我們該如何思考這個問題？

Mariano?

馬裡亞諾？

Brian, thank you for your question. Regarding this provision, it's correctly the amount of ARS 33 billion. We think we are conservative on that provision, but we would prefer to maintaining. Recall that this is the turnover tax that the city first, the City of Buenos Aires imposed on revenues deriving from Central Bank securities. The leads from the first bid, but also Central Bank repos and then also the province of Mendoza and other provinces, but the main ones being (inaudible) Mendoza and then this year, the province of Buenos Aires.

布萊恩，謝謝你的問題。關於這項規定，正確的金額是330億阿根廷比索。我們認為我們對該條款持保守態度，但我們更願意維持不變。回想一下，這是布宜諾斯艾利斯市首先對中央銀行證券收入徵收的流轉稅。第一次投標的領先者，還有中央銀行回購協議，然後還有門多薩省和其他省份，但主要的是（聽不清楚）門多薩省，然後是今年的布宜諾斯艾利斯省。

It's important to highlight also that now as the Central Bank stopped issuing the leagues and then stopped giving repos. And now we migrated that securities portfolio to the treasury note, short-term treasury notes. We are not agreeing in any tax because the treasury notes are no doubt they are exempt from this tax.

還需要強調的是，現在央行停止發行聯賽，然後停止提供回購協議。現在我們將該證券投資組合遷移到國庫券，即短期國庫券。我們不同意任何稅收，因為國庫券無疑是免稅的。

So there's no new taxes on these short-term securities. Now with regards to the Central Bank security revenues during last year and the first month of this year. We made a claim with the Supreme Court of justice. This was also made by the other banks within the bank association and also there was a demand from the Central Bank with the Supreme Court of Justice, because it starts affects the monetary policy of the Central Bank and provinces cannot interfere in the monetary policy.

因此，這些短期證券沒有新的稅收。現在介紹一下去年和今年一月央行的擔保收入。我們向最高法院提出了索賠。這也是銀行協會內其他銀行提出的，也有中央銀行向最高法院提出的要求，因為這開始影響中央銀行的貨幣政策，而各省不能幹預貨幣政策。

So the process can be very long because the Supreme Court hasn't made any pronouncement yet. And we know these processes take long term to be defined. This is also related to the dispute between the City of Buenos Aires and the national government because of funds from taxes that the City of Buenos Aires received in the core participation with the other provinces and prior government took from reduced share that City of Buenos Aires received. That's when prior major of the City of Buenos Aires imposed this tax.

所以這個過程可能會很長，因為最高法院還沒有做出任何聲明。我們知道這些過程需要長期的時間才能確定。這也與布宜諾斯艾利斯市和國家政府之間的爭議有關，因為布宜諾斯艾利斯市在與其他省份的核心參與中獲得的稅收資金以及先前政府從布宜諾斯艾利斯市獲得的份額減少中獲得的資金。當時布宜諾斯艾利斯市的前任市長徵收了這項稅。

So when the Supreme Court makes a decision on that matter, maybe then they will make a decision on these tools. So we are positive on the outlook of the result of this dispute although we have this provision just to be conservative. But it can take several years. And then the last part of your question is just by inflation.

因此，當最高法院就此事做出決定時，也許他們就會對這些工具做出決定。因此，我們對這場爭端結果的前景持樂觀態度，儘管我們的這項規定只是為了保守。但這可能需要幾年的時間。你問題的最後一部分就是通貨膨脹。

It's not directly leading to inflation, but the provinces taken on interest rates. So if we have to pay the tax, the liability would include the interest rates.

它並不會直接導致通貨膨脹，而是各省承擔了利率。因此，如果我們必須納稅，負債將包括利率。

Perfect. Super clear, if I may, just a quick follow-up on capital, right? Because we have data as of me with the Central Bank. And if I'm doing the calculation here, June was negative, right? In terms of net income or close to being negative. I wanted to ask you on capital because quarter-over-quarter, you're consuming quite some bps, right? I think, over 300 bps. Now your guidance suggests another consumption because, as you mentioned, you're increasing risk-weighted assets.

完美的。非常清楚，如果可以的話，只是對資本的快速跟進，對嗎？因為我們有我向中央銀行提供的數據。如果我在這裡進行計算，六月是負數，對嗎？從淨利來看還是接近負值。我想問你關於資本的問題，因為每季你都會消耗相當多的基點，對嗎？我想，超過 300 bps。現在，您的指導建議進行另一種消費，因為正如您所提到的，您正在增加風險加權資產。

Just wanted to maybe open this question in two parts. First, should we expect the third quarter to be maybe negative in terms of net income contribution? And then the second one is in terms of growth in risk-weighted assets, what type of loans are you thinking on expanding? Is it a bit more on the heavy part which is higher risk weight or a bit more balanced between, I don't know, mortgages and consumer, just to think about this going forward.

只是想把這個問題分成兩個部分。首先，我們是否應該預期第三季的淨利貢獻可能為負？第二個是風險加權資產的成長，您考慮擴大哪種類型的貸款？我不知道，抵押貸款和消費者之間是否更加平衡，只是考慮一下未來的情況。

Okay. Yes. First, the profit capitalization is always positive for the CET1 ratio as we had a 10% positive ROE in the quarter. We had capital, but as with a quarter where the loan portfolio grew 40% or 36% in real terms in just one quarter. Of course, in that case, increasing risk-weighted assets is higher than the capital we have with results. And so that's why we -- you can see the consumption of 390 basis points in the CET1 ratio.

好的。是的。首先，利潤資本對於 CET1 比率始終為正，因為我們本季的 ROE 為 10%。我們有資本，但就像一個季度一樣，貸款組合在短短一個季度內實際增長了 40% 或 36%。當然，在這種情況下，增加的風險加權資產高於我們擁有的資本和結果。這就是為什麼我們——你可以在 CET1 比率中看到 390 個基點的消耗。

And looking forward, as we continue to see growth in real terms, we will start also to use that capital. Now, we are in the middle of the transition where our ROE will turn to 15% this year, but coming from higher ROE in the first quarter. So the most of the capital addition coming from the ROE.

展望未來，隨著我們繼續看到實際成長，我們也將開始使用這些資本。現在，我們正處於轉型中期，今年我們的 ROE 將升至 15%，但第一季的 ROE 較高。因此，大部分資本增加來自淨資產收益率。

We have it already in our capital numbers. And then you will start to see APR risk-weighted assets growing. The pace of the growth for the next quarter, maybe it will be lower than the second quarter, which was extremely high because decline in interest rates was very short. But we will continue to see growth in real terms in the third and fourth quarter. That's why now we expect the capital ratio to range between 17% and 20%, which is a lower level where we now are and regarding the type of loans where we are planning to expand.

我們的資本數字中已經包含了它。然後您將開始看到年利率風險加權資產不斷增長。下個季度的成長速度可能會低於第二季度，因為利率下降的時間很短，所以第二季的成長速度非常高。但我們將在第三和第四季繼續看到實際成長。這就是為什麼現在我們預計資本比率在 17% 到 20% 之間，這是我們目前的較低水平，並考慮到我們計劃擴大的貸款類型。

(inaudible) take on that part. The strong growth we saw in the second quarter was primarily from corporates and the loan demand from -- particularly from the value chain of dynamic -- export-oriented dynamic industries, such as oil and gas and mining and agri business. And there was a also a rebound in terms of individual loans, from car loans, particularly car loans and personal loans for which reason and payroll loans.

（聽不清楚）承擔那部分。我們在第二季度看到的強勁成長主要來自企業以及來自出口導向動態產業的貸款需求，特別是來自石油和天然氣、採礦和農業企業等動態出口導向產業的貸款需求。個人貸款也出現反彈，其中包括汽車貸款，特別是汽車貸款和個人貸款以及薪資貸款。

However, we believe that two-third of the loan book is today corporates and one-third is individual loans. So this means that with the change of monetary policy, when the decrease in interest rates, the NIMs came down very strong in the second quarter. We believe it's going to continue. However, the mix of loans will start to change. And by the end of the year, we expect that individuals, they will start -- there will be a pickup of the loan demand.

然而，我們認為目前貸款帳簿的三分之二是企業貸款，三分之一是個人貸款。所以這意味著隨著貨幣政策的變化，當利率下降時，NIM在第二季下降得非常強勁。我們相信這種情況將會持續下去。然而，貸款的結構將開始改變。到今年年底，我們預計個人的貸款需求將會增加。

And therefore, there will be a balance between corporate loans and individual loans around 50% each. And this will help us to achieve a historical NIM level of 20%. So this is the way looking forward to 2025, how it's going to -- our balance sheet is going to be much stronger in terms of revenue generation.

因此，公司貸款和個人貸款的餘額將各在50%左右。這將幫助我們實現 20% 的歷史淨利差水準。因此，這就是展望 2025 年的方式，我們的資產負債表在創收方面將變得更加強勁。

Ernesto Gabilondo , BofA.

埃內斯托·加比隆多，美國銀行。

My first question is if you can elaborate a little bit more on the undoing positions that the banks executed with the Central Bank related to the puts? And what are the implications into the P&L and balance sheet. And also, on the other hand, I think there's some proposition of the Central Bank to do something with repos. So I will also want to hear from you the time line and the implications from those repos.

我的第一個問題是，您是否可以詳細說明銀行與央行執行的與看跌期權相關的平倉頭寸？對損益表和資產負債表有何影響？另一方面，我認為央行提出了一些關於回購協議的建議。因此，我還想聽聽您的時間表以及這些回購協議的影響。

Thank you for your question. Regarding the put options we had on part of our treasury notes portfolio. We had as of June 30, we had around ARS 300 billion in inflation-linked bonds from the government. Out of those ARS 300 billion bond, maybe between 50% and 60%. We have put options. Remember that these put options didn't guarantee of price beyond the guaranteed liquidity.

謝謝你的提問。關於我們對部分國債投資組合的看跌期權。截至 6 月 30 日，我們有大約 3000 億阿根廷比索的政府公債。在 3,000 億阿根廷比索的債券中，可能有 50% 到 60% 之間。我們有看跌期權。請記住，這些看跌期權不能保證價格超出保證的流動性。

And as you know, the Central Bank proposed to buy back those put options, the enterprise. And we, as most of the (inaudible), we agreed to sell those put options to the Central Bank. Out of this portfolio, maturities of these bonds were between the end of this year and up to the end of 2027. And most concentration was in 2025 and 2026.

如你所知，央行提議回購那些看跌期權，也就是企業。我們和大多數人（聽不清楚）一樣，同意將這些看跌期權賣給央行。在該投資組合中，這些債券的到期日為今年底至 2027 年底。其中最集中的是2025年和2026年。

But also these bonds are part of our hedge inflation, and we are holding them until maturity. That's why it's part of our investment portfolio. So that's why we agreed to sell the goods because it wasn't a portfolio that we were willing to sell in the short term.

但這些債券也是我們對沖通膨的一部分，我們將持有它們直至到期。這就是為什麼它是我們投資組合的一部分。這就是我們同意出售這些商品的原因，因為這不是我們願意在短期內出售的投資組合。

Let me add on that. We also believe that the Milei government has a strong focus in fiscal consolidation. And therefore, holding this treasury securities with these policies are -- I think it's -- we are at ease. And we are comfortable, and we believe that in the end, this is going to be reflected in the prices of government securities.

讓我補充一下。我們也認為，米雷政府非常重視財政整頓。因此，持有具有這些政策的國債——我認為是——我們很放心。我們很放心，我們相信最終這將反映在政府證券的價格中。

No, I'm sorry, because you asked also for repos. With what Patricio said, the government is passing the debt from the Central Bank to the treasury where they want to achieve fiscal surplus or at least fiscal balance, including interest. So that is a greater responsibility and shows a greater compromise for the government to be accountable -- to make the treasury accountable for the interest of its own debt.

不，我很抱歉，因為您還要求回購。正如帕特里西奧所說，政府正在將債務從央行轉移到財政部，他們希望實現財政盈餘或至少財政平衡，包括利息。因此，這是一項更大的責任，也是政府問責的更大妥協——讓財政部對自己的債務利息負責。

And not being paid by the Central Bank creating fiscal deficit. So in this context and with this government, we think the risk from repos of the Central Bank and the new (inaudible) which are these short-term notes issued by the treasury. We think the risk is very similar. And also liquidity is always guaranteed by the Central Bank. So it's basically a very similar instrument for us.

且中央銀行不支付費用，造成財政赤字。因此，在這種背景下，對於本屆政府，我們認為風險來自央行回購和財政部發行的新（聽不清楚）短期票據。我們認為風險非常相似。而且流動性始終由央行保證。所以它對我們來說基本上是一個非常相似的樂器。

Okay. No, perfect. Understood. And then I would like to add a second question. This one is in terms of the long demand, which seems to be finally materializing because of lower inflation, lower rates. So can you elaborate on which are the industries that you're starting to see this higher demand?

好的。不，完美。明白了。然後我想補充第二個問題。這是長期需求，由於較低的通膨和較低的利率，這一需求似乎最終得以實現。那麼您能否詳細說明哪些產業開始出現更高的需求？

And then just a follow-up in terms of your ROE guidance of 15% for this year. So if making the numbers, this would imply average ROEs below the 10% in the second half. Is that correct? And I think, Patricio said that you want to have a sustainable ROE in the medium term of around 20%. So you wanted to double check those fees?

然後是今年 15% 的 ROE 指導的後續行動。因此，如果計算出這個數字，這將意味著下半年平均 ROE 低於 10%。這是正確的嗎？我認為，帕特里西奧說過，你希望在中期內擁有 20% 左右的可持續 ROE。那麼您想仔細檢查這些費用嗎？

You want to ask -- answer the second part and then -- and (inaudible).

你想問——回答第二部分，然後——然後（聽不清楚）。

Let me answer the first question regarding our ROE. It's is correct. We expect a longer-term ROE of 20%. But -- now we are -- will be in the middle of the transitions that already your calculations are completely right. We're expecting a more challenging third and fourth quarter just because we are in these transitions where interest rates have dropped significantly. NIMs are reducing. We still have high inflation (inaudible) being reduced very fast, but we still have had high inflation and the loan demand has risen sharply from historical lows. We are still at a very low demand, (inaudible) GDP.

讓我回答關於我們的交戰規則的第一個問題。這是正確的。我們預計長期 ROE 為 20%。但是——現在我們——將處於轉變的中間，你的計算已經完全正確了。我們預計第三季和第四季將更具挑戰性，因為我們正處於利率大幅下降的轉型期。淨息差正在減少。我們仍然面臨著高通膨（聽不清楚）的快速下降，但我們仍然面臨著高通膨，貸款需求從歷史低點急劇上升。我們的需求（聽不清楚）GDP 仍然很低。

So the next 2 quarters will be very challenging with ROEs probably below 10%. That's why we expect a 15% growth for the year when we have 22% ROE in the first half of the year. So when that transition from assets of the Central Bank and treasury securities to loans and within the loan growth, we also grow not only in short-term loans to corporate, but also in the individual portfolio, we are growing very well in personal loans, car loans, which have higher needs and we focus on growing on higher NIM products.

因此，未來 2 個季度將非常具有挑戰性，ROE 可能低於 10%。這就是為什麼我們在上半年的 ROE 為 22% 的情況下預計今年將成長 15%。因此，當從中央銀行的資產和國債轉向貸款時，在貸款增長中，我們不僅在企業短期貸款上增長，而且在個人投資組合中也增長，我們在個人貸款方面增長得非常好，汽車貸款，其需求較高，我們專注於發展淨利差較高的產品。

We'll start to recover that ROE return to an ROE of 15% and then increasing it in the longer term when consumption returns. And also, we can grow profitably across all segments, not only in specific segments. Do you want to continue Alejandro?

我們將開始將股本回報率恢復到 15%，然後在消費恢復時長期增加股本回報率。而且，我們可以在所有細分市場中實現獲利成長，而不僅僅是特定細分市場。你想繼續亞歷杭德羅嗎？

Sure. Industries that are leading the credit demand, as you know, our oil and gas, mining and agribusiness. But more recently, we've seen also an increase in durables. And more consistently in construction. Consumption is trailing at a lagging these leaders, but is also going to pick up as soon as we consolidate the purchasing power and salaries start going a little bit above inflation.

當然。如您所知，引領信貸需求的行業是我們的石油和天然氣、採礦和農業綜合企業。但最近，我們還看到耐用品的成長。並且在施工上更加一致。消費落後於這些領先者，但一旦我們鞏固購買力並且薪資開始略高於通膨，消費也會回升。

It's interesting to note that because in many of these industries, the utilization levels were very low the reaction is very quick because it has to do with more working capital. It does not require major investments in fixed assets.

有趣的是，由於在許多此類行業中，利用率水平非常低，因此反應非常快，因為這與更多的營運資金有關。它不需要大量的固定資產投資。

So this is why the reaction has been very quickly and is picking up consistently. And at the same time, on the funding side, what we see is that sight deposits have been going up because the activity level is greater. And typically, sight deposits are a function of the working capital and the level of activity. And because inflation has been going down, then you have greater levels of sight deposits, which will help even further moving forward in the cost of funding.

這就是為什麼反應非常快速且持續升溫的原因。同時，在資金方面，我們看到活期存款一直在增加，因為活動量更大。通常，活期存款是營運資金和活動水準的函數。由於通貨膨脹一直在下降，因此活期存款水準更高，這將有助於進一步降低融資成本。

Carlos Gomez-lopez , HSBC.

卡洛斯·戈麥斯-洛佩茲，匯豐銀行。

Can you hear me? Congratulations on your loan growth. You promised that you would be replacing these programs and you are doing it. So I have a couple of questions. The first one, can you confirm that the treasury securities that you have now have zero risk weighting, right? So you've been stated in Central Bank securities for treasuries, that remains the same, right? So you have not consumed any capital, although, obviously, you are taking a bit more risk by having the government and having the Central Bank.

你聽得到我嗎？恭喜您的貸款成長。您承諾將替換這些程序並且您正在這樣做。所以我有幾個問題。第一個，你能確認一下你現在持有的國債風險權重是零嗎？所以你在央行國債證券中已經說過，這仍然是一樣的，對吧？所以你沒有消耗任何資本，儘管很明顯，你因為擁有政府和中央銀行而承擔了更多的風險。

And second, can you tell us how the mortgage operation is working? Because I know initially, there were some problems. Is it okay now? Can you originate with normality?

其次，您能告訴我們房貸業務是如何運作的嗎？因為我一開始就知道，存在一些問題。現在可以了嗎？你能以平常心起源嗎？

Carlos, thank you for your questions. Regarding Central Bank and treasury notes, they have no credit risk-weighted assets. They have operational and market risk-weighted assets. Remember that credit risk-weighted assets account for approximately 7% of our total risk-weighted assets. So in general terms, it is correct. They don't have any capital requirements although, they contribute also to the -- to these 30% of operational market capital requirements. Then regarding mortgages.

卡洛斯，謝謝你的提問。央行和國債沒有信用風險加權資產。他們擁有營運和市場風險加權資產。請記住，信用風險加權資產約占我們風險加權資產總額的 7%。所以總的來說，這是正確的。儘管他們沒有任何資本要求，但他們也為這 30% 的營運市場資本要求做出了貢獻。然後是關於抵押貸款。

Sorry, what that, I mean, that is correct. But the market risk and operational risk that also applied to the Central Bank securities, right? So that hasn't changed.

抱歉，我的意思是，這是正確的。但市場風險和操作風險也適用於央行證券，對吧？所以這並沒有改變。

Yes, correct. Yes, in terms of capital requirements, there are no significant differences between Central Bank and treasury securities, as these were the short term.

是的，正確。是的，就資本要求而言，央行和國債之間沒有顯著差異，因為這些都是短期的。

Okay. All right. So, you would agree that, I mean, by going from one to the other. I mean I know you are saying that the government is the same at the Central Bank, but actually, historically, it has been quite different. You are taking some more risk -- I mean which is fine, you're putting your capital toward -- but you are taking some more risk by being in government securities.

好的。好的。所以，我的意思是，透過從一種轉向另一種，你會同意這一點。我的意思是，我知道你說中央銀行的政府是一樣的，但實際上，從歷史上看，它是相當不同的。你正在承擔更多的風險——我的意思是，這很好，你正在把你的資本投入——但是你透過購買政府證券而承擔了更多的風險。

Well, the risk for the treasury is not always the same as the Central Bank, although as I say before, in the current context, we think that difference is very low. In the past, we always consider significant differences. However, we are very cautious to go from the Central Bank to the treasury in the current context and also with the liquidity guarantee because remember that although LA fees are treasury notes that's the liquidity guarantee from the central bank. So that's a mix of risk there.

嗯，財政部的風險並不總是與央行相同，儘管正如我之前所說，在當前背景下，我們認為這種差異非常低。過去，我們總是考慮顯著差異。然而，在當前情況下，我們對從央行轉向國庫以及流動性保證持非常謹慎的態度，因為請記住，雖然 LA 費用是國庫券，但它是央行的流動性保證。所以這是一個混合風險。

But also, Carlos, it is also something taking in context, I remember that we are still -- even though inflation is going down, we're still in the high inflation country. And hopefully, it's going to go down still. But so we hold these treasuries as a hedge -- with a hedge purpose of our capital to make sure that they are hedging as inflation.

而且，卡洛斯，這也是要考慮到具體情況的，我記得我們仍然——儘管通膨正在下降，但我們仍然處於高通膨國家。希望它還會繼續下降。但我們持有這些國債是為了對沖——我們的資本的對沖目的是確保它們能夠對沖通貨膨脹。

Carlos. Regarding your question on mortgages, we are originating very well. There's a huge repressed demand, as you know, and Supervielle was the first private bank to come out with a product offering on mortgages. Just to give you a little bit of color there, right now, our average ticket size is around $80,000 official. And it's growing very consistently. Key to sustain this growth on a longer term is regulation regarding securitization, which is still pending. And that's one of the things that we're working on to be able to make sure that we continue to grow and also manage the exposure to mortgages and the consumption of capital that they will require.

卡洛斯.關於你關於抵押貸款的問題，我們的出發點很好。如您所知，存在巨大的被壓抑的需求，而 Supervielle 是第一家推出抵押貸款產品的私人銀行。只是為了給你一點說明，目前我們的官方平均門票金額約為 80,000 美元。而且它的成長非常持續。長期維持這種成長的關鍵是對證券化的監管，該監管仍有待解決。這是我們正在努力的事情之一，以確保我們繼續成長並管理抵押貸款風險及其所需的資本消耗。

And again, these are all loans in August, inflation-adjusted unit. You said your average is 50,000 -- so how much -- just to (inaudible) how much are you originating per month or per week at this point in time?

再說一次，這些都是八月的貸款，經過通貨膨脹調整後的單位。您說您的平均值是 50,000 - 那麼是多少 - 只是（聽不清楚）您此時每月或每週的初始金額是多少？

At this point levels are very low, because we have a huge pipeline, and there are many bureaucratic steps that have to take place. You have to have know the Republics. You have to have also the right valuation. And this is a machine that has stopped for around four years and it's starting to move again. But right now, we are converting these initial request for information and we are growing at a rate of roughly -- more recently, at a rate of roughly 50 mortgages per month, but this should be going up pretty soon.

目前水準非常低，因為我們有龐大的管道，並且必須採取許多官僚步驟。你必須了解共和國。您還必須有正確的估值。這台機器已經停止了大約四年，現在又開始運作了。但現在，我們正在轉換這些最初的資訊請求，我們的成長速度大約是——最近，每月大約 50 筆抵押貸款，但這應該很快就會上升。

Okay. So at this point, my point is, I mean, it's immaterial to your balances, but it's starting to move.

好的。所以在這一點上，我的觀點是，我的意思是，這對你的餘額來說並不重要，但它已經開始改變。

It is starting to move, but remember, we carry mortgages from the previous period. That's why when you look at our asset composition, the representation of mortgages is higher, but you are right about the vintage, the new vintage of mortgages is right now very small. That is correct.

它開始移動，但請記住，我們持有上一時期的抵押貸款。這就是為什麼當你看我們的資產組成時，抵押貸款的代表性更高，但你對年份的看法是正確的，新的抵押貸款年份現在非常小。這是正確的。

And if I can add one last question. I know that your view that the current economic policy is sustainable. But I imagine you also do a lot of testing. What would happen if there has to be another large devaluation, let's say, 30% or 40% in the currency.

我可以補充最後一個問題嗎？我知道您認為目前的經濟政策是可持續的。但我想你也做了很多測試。如果貨幣必須再次大幅貶值，比如說 30% 或 40%，會發生什麼情況。

As you pointed out, Carlos, that's not the direction that the Ministry of Economy, the Central Bank as steering the economy, but in the hypothetical case that devaluation will take place. You will see a significant pass-through of that devaluation into inflation.

卡洛斯，正如你所指出的，這不是經濟部、央行指導經濟的方向，而是在假設貨幣貶值將會發生的情況下。你會看到貨幣貶值顯著轉化為通貨膨脹。

You will probably have and that would create a series of adjustments in relative prices. So you will probably also see an increase in rates following suit, and that will have an impact on the activity level. But as I said, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy and trying to do everything to avoid that situation.

您可能會做出一系列的相對價格調整。因此，您可能還會看到利率隨之增加，這將對活動水準產生影響。但正如我所說，央行和經濟部正在盡一切努力避免這種情況。

And you expect interest rates to remain at the level they are today or to go to real rate in the second half?

您預計利率將保持在目前的水平，還是在下半年轉向實際利率？

My view is that there are several pressures in the credit demand that are pressing for rates to go up. At the same time, you've seen a crowding in effect as the Argentine state with frost demand from the financial sector. So it's going to be a combination between this pressure because of tighter monetary policy and the crowding in effect as the Argentine state creates less demand for credit in the market.

我的觀點是，信貸需求面臨多種壓力，迫使利率上升。同時，您會看到阿根廷政府的擁擠效應，以及來自金融部門的霜凍需求。因此，這將是貨幣政策收緊帶來的壓力和阿根廷政府減少市場信貸需求造成的擁擠效應的結合。

But again, these paid rates to go up from the current level, so to stay where they are?

但話又說回來，這些付費費率要從目前的水準上升，所以要維持在原來的水準嗎？

I would expect, and it's a bit of a guess right now that they will go up on the second half in real terms.

我預計，現在有點猜測他們會在下半年實際上漲。

Marina Mertens with Latin Security.

瑪麗娜·梅爾滕斯 (Marina Mertens) 與拉丁保安人員。

So in the second quarter, we observed a significant loan growth with flat deposits, which led to an increase in the loan-to-deposit ratio. How do you expect deposits to evolve in the second half of the year? And what factors do you see as the main drivers for growth?

因此，在第二季度，我們觀察到貸款大幅成長，而存款持平，導致貸存比上升。您預計下半年存款將如何發展？您認為哪些因素是成長的主要動力？

Marina, thank you for your question. For the upcoming quarters, we see deposits growing in real terms. Although we see loans growing at a faster pace. So that will make loan-to-deposit ratio to increase, but with both sides of the equation growing. Regarding the sources of this growth, we expect it to come growth from the individuals and corporation.

瑪麗娜，謝謝你的問題。在接下來的幾個季度，我們看到存款實際成長。儘管我們看到貸款成長速度更快。因此，這將使貸存比上升，但等式兩邊都在成長。關於成長的來源，我們預期它來自個人和企業的成長。

Also as activity rebounds across all sectors. Remember now that we are seeing a small recovery in activity, but it's very different across centers. Transactionality will increase and that will also increase funding from current accounts and savings accounts. And we are also working on several strategic initiatives to foster deposits growth.

此外，隨著所有行業的活動反彈。請記住，現在我們看到活動略有復甦，但各個中心的情況卻截然不同。交易性將會增加，這也將增加來自經常帳戶和儲蓄帳戶的資金。我們也正在製定多項策略性措施來促進存款成長。

Yes. I would say that we add in on that, that it's going to be a strong focus in fixed-term deposits or time deposits. Basically, where we expect that we will be able to attract time deposits because when fish comes down, naturally, savings starts to grow in the country for both in current accounts, sales accounts and time deposits. So we are pretty -- we are focusing on that. It's a very healthy period, I'd say.

是的。我想說的是，我們補充說，這將是定期存款或定期存款的重點。基本上，我們預計我們將能夠吸引定期存款，因為當魚量下降時，該國的經常帳戶、銷售帳戶和定期存款儲蓄自然會開始成長。所以我們很漂亮——我們正在專注於此。我想說，這是一個非常健康的時期。

Marlon Medina , J.P. Morgan.

馬龍·梅迪納，摩根大通。

So I think most of my questions have been asked, but perhaps a quick follow-up on asset quality. Today have a very strong coverage, I think, around or above 200%. So as the environment normalizes, what would be original level for coverage to convert to? And also, what would be like a reasonable NPL to assume going forward? I know today is very behaved, but as you scale the portfolio, where do you expect it to trend?

所以我認為我的大部分問題都被問到了，但也許是關於資產品質的快速跟進。我認為今天的覆蓋率非常高，大約或超過 200%。那麼，隨著環境正常化，覆蓋範圍將轉換為原始水平是多少？而且，未來合理的不良貸款假設是什麼樣的呢？我知道今天非常規矩，但當你擴大投資組合時，你預期它的趨勢是什麼？

Mariano, you want to answer that?

馬裡亞諾，你想回答這個問題嗎？

Sure. Thank you, Marlon, for your question. Regarding coverage, it's true that now it is very high. It's above 300%. This is in part because the NPL ratio is very low. So when you have such low NPL provisions, you have on the performing portfolio because we expect those models. Of course, we have a small provision on the performing portfolio and that creates a very high coverage of the small portion of NPLs.

當然。謝謝你，馬龍，你的問題。至於覆蓋率，確實現在已經很高了。已經超過300%了。部分原因是不良貸款率非常低。因此，當您的不良貸款準備金如此低時，您就會擁有表現良好的投資組合，因為我們期望這些模型。當然，我們對錶現良好的投資組合有少量撥備，這為一小部分不良貸款創造了非常高的覆蓋率。

So when NPLs returned to normal because now we are growing mainly in corporate, we have lower NPLs also the pace of the growth in real terms, I mean, real terms, also that dilutes NPLs. So when they return normal, let's say, 2% will depend on the mix of the portfolio, but if NPLs return to 2%, then that coverage will go down. I can give you a very wide range, but just have an idea, which is 100% and 200%. We shouldn't be -- we shouldn't continue to see such high levels of coverage above 300%.

因此，當不良貸款恢復正常時，因為現在我們主要在企業方面成長，我們的不良貸款也較低，實際成長速度也較低，我的意思是，實際情況，這也稀釋了不良貸款。因此，當它們恢復正常時，比方說，2% 將取決於投資組合的組合，但如果不良貸款恢復到 2%，那麼覆蓋率就會下降。我可以給你一個很寬的範圍，但只是一個想法，就是100%和200%。我們不應該——我們不應該繼續看到超過 300% 的高覆蓋率。

We have, I think, a new question having coming from Brian Flores -- this is correct Brian?

我想，我們有一個來自布萊恩·弗洛雷斯的新問題——這是正確的布萊恩嗎？

I just wanted to make a follow-up. You made a comment, a very interesting one, right? Maybe the second half of the year with an ROE that is 10% or lower, right? Then you said middle term, you should go back to 15% and then eventually all the way to 20%. I know this is a difficult question, but do you have like an expected time line or maybe a desired time line as to when and how should this happen? Just to wrap our heads around this.

我只是想跟進一下。你發表了評論，非常有趣，對吧？也許下半年 ROE 會在 10% 或更低，對吧？然後你說中期，你應該回到15%，然後最後一直到20%。我知道這是一個很難回答的問題，但是對於何時以及如何發生這種情況，您是否有一個預期的時間線或可能是期望的時間線？只是為了讓我們了解這一點。

Yes, Brian. Let me give you our expectations. And of course, within the context of the visibility, we can have now without the changes also in the market environment and regulations. We expect an ROE to go below 10% in the next quarter, then pick up gradually to have 15% for the year '25. But with an increasing trend and reaching maybe that run rate of 20% ROE for the second half of the last quarter of 2025 and therefore, for the year 2026. That would be our timeline.

是的，布萊恩。讓我向您表達我們的期望。當然，在可見性的背景下，我們現在也可以在市場環境和法規不改變的情況下實現。我們預計下一季的 ROE 將低於 10%，然後逐漸回升，到 25 年將達到 15%。但隨著趨勢的增加，2025 年最後一個季度下半年以及 2026 年的 ROE 運作率可能達到 20%。這就是我們的時間表。

Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of today's Q&A session. Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in our company. We look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter. In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions that you may have. So have a good day.

好的。女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。感謝您今天加入我們。我們感謝您對我們公司的興趣。我們期待在未來幾個月內與更多的人見面，並提供下季度的財務和業務最新資訊。在此期間，我們仍然可以回答您可能提出的任何問題。祝你有美好的一天。