Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Grupo Supervielle Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This is Ana Bartesaghi, Treasurer and IRO.

大家早上好，歡迎參加 Grupo Supervielle 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我是 Ana Bartesaghi，財務主管兼 IRO。

A slide presentation will accompany today's webinar, which is available in the Investors section of Grupo Supervielle's Investor Relations website. Today's conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

今天的網絡研討會將附有幻燈片演示，可在 Grupo Supervielle 投資者關係網站的投資者部分查看。今天的電話會議正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

Speaking during today's call will be Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO; and Mariano Biglia, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us is Alejandro Stengel, First Vice Chairman of the Board and CEO, at Banco Supervielle. All will be available for the Q&A session.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Patricio Supervielle 將在今天的電話會議上發言。以及我們的首席財務官馬里亞諾·比格利亞 (Mariano Biglia)。加入我們的還有 Banco Supervielle 董事會第一副主席兼首席執行官 Alejandro Stengel。所有內容都將在問答環節提供。

As a reminder, today's call will contain forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs and subject to several risks and uncertainties. I refer you to forward-looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or change events or circumstances.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議將包含基於管理層當前預期和信念的前瞻性陳述，並受到多種風險和不確定性的影響。我建議您參閱我們收益報告中的前瞻性陳述部分以及最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映新的或變化的事件或情況的義務。

Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO, will start the call discussing the key highlights for the quarter and priorities for 2023 as well as an update on macro views for this year and 2024. Afterwards, Mariano Biglia, our CFO, will take a deeper look at our performance and near-term perspective. This will be followed by a Q&A session. Patricio, please go ahead.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官Patricio Supervielle 將在電話會議上討論本季度的主要亮點和2023 年的優先事項，以及今年和2024 年宏觀觀點的最新情況。隨後，我們的首席財務官馬里亞諾·比格利亞(Mariano Biglia) 將進行更深入的研究從我們的表現和近期角度來看。隨後將進行問答環節。帕特里西奧，請繼續。

Thank you, Ana. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I will begin my presentation with Slide 3. We continue executing our strategic plan while navigating complex macro and political environments with weak loan demand. The momentum that we saw at the beginning of the year continued through the Second Quarter with profitability across all business units. Our program is on track with ROE improving to 18% in real terms in the quarter. For the first half of the year, ROE increased to 10% from a negative 6% in the same period last year.

謝謝你，安娜。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我將從幻燈片 3 開始我的演示。我們繼續執行我們的戰略計劃，同時應對貸款需求疲軟的複雜宏觀和政治環境。我們在今年年初看到的勢頭在第二季度得到了延續，所有業務部門都實現了盈利。我們的計劃進展順利，本季度 ROE 實際提高至 18%。上半年，ROE由去年同期的負6%上升至10%。

Our results for the first half reflect strong asset and liability management, our prudent approach to lending and significant progress in streamlining operations. This resulted in revenue growth, healthy asset quality, significant improvement in operating efficiency and profitability. We continued deepening our transformation, driving digitalization and innovation while capturing customers beyond our physical footprint. Starting June 3, we were the first bank in Argentina to expand the time frame for money market investment to 24/7. This initiative has been well received with 90,000 clients already investing through this platform.

我們上半年的業績反映了強大的資產和負債管理、審慎的貸款方式以及精簡業務方面的重大進展。這帶來了收入增長、資產質量健康、運營效率和盈利能力顯著提高。我們繼續深化轉型，推動數字化和創新，同時吸引超出我們實際足蹟的客戶。從 6 月 3 日開始，我們是阿根廷第一家將貨幣市場投資時間範圍擴大至 24/7 的銀行。這一舉措受到了好評，已有 90,000 名客戶通過該平台進行投資。

As we look to the remainder of the year, our key priorities include, first, continued focus on profitability and cross-selling products to existing customers. In particular, we are cross-selling insurance, investment products and cash management services while also driving loans above market growth. InvertirOnline, our online brokerage business continued to deliver a very strong performance, active customers doubled year-to-date with assets under management up 49% in real terms since December last year.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們的主要優先事項包括，首先，繼續關注盈利能力和向現有客戶交叉銷售產品。特別是，我們交叉銷售保險、投資產品和現金管理服務，同時推動貸款高於市場增長。我們的在線經紀業務 InvertirOnline 繼續表現強勁，活躍客戶今年迄今翻了一番，管理資產自去年 12 月以來實際增長 49%。

Second, we're closely monitoring market conditions and managing assets and liabilities to protect financial margins and the group's capital and continue with a prudent credit risk approach. Our shareholder equity remained fully hedged against inflation while we are also loaning in U.S. dollars.

其次，我們正在密切監控市場狀況並管理資產和負債，以保護財務利潤和集團資本，並繼續採取審慎的信用風險策略。我們的股東權益仍然完全對沖通脹，同時我們也以美元貸款。

Now please turn to Slide 4. Foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline further impacted by the negative commercial balance while the Central Bank continued to increase the reference interest rates on the bank on the back of accelerated inflation. After the primary elections, the Central Bank devalued the peso by 22%. The reference rates of Leliq increased from 97% to 118%. Against this backdrop, the blue-chip swap experienced higher volatility, reflecting increased political uncertainty.

現在請看幻燈片4。在商業負值的影響下，外匯儲備繼續下降，而在通脹加速的背景下，央行繼續提高銀行參考利率。初選後，央行將比索貶值22%。 Leliq的參考率從97%提高到118%。在此背景下，藍籌掉期波動性加大，反映出政治不確定性增加。

According to certain early indicators, the pass-through effects of the exchange rate devaluation is anticipated to have further accelerated inflation in August and into September. In turn, the fiscal balance has deteriorated as revenues have been declining and expenses decline in real terms but at a slower pace than in previous months. The IMF original fiscal primary deficit target of 1.9% has been exceeded and is currently estimated to reach 3%.

根據某些早期指標，預計匯率貶值的傳導效應將進一步加速八月至九月的通脹。反過來，財政平衡也惡化，收入和支出實際下降，但下降速度比前幾個月要慢。 IMF原定的1.9%的財政基本赤字目標已經超額完成，目前預計將達到3%。

Turning to Slide 5. As we head towards the presidential election in October, let me share our macro views for the remainder of 2023 and expectation for 2024. While the government is maintaining a fiscal balance restraint. The recent fiscal devaluation has established a new and higher flow on inflation. On August 23, the Board of the IMF continues the fifth and sixth use of the extended funds facility for Argentina, enabling an immediate disbursement of around $7.5 billion. The next review is scheduled for November 2023. In this context, we expect economic activity to continue falling in the second half of the year leading to a GDP contraction of approximately 3% over the year.

轉向幻燈片 5。在 10 月份總統選舉即將到來之際，讓我分享一下我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的宏觀看法以及對 2024 年的預期。儘管政府仍保持財政平衡克制。最近的財政貶值造成了新的、更高的通脹流量。 8 月 23 日，國際貨幣基金組織董事會繼續第五次和第六次使用阿根廷延期資金安排，立即支付約 75 億美元。下一次審查定於 2023 年 11 月進行。在此背景下，我們預計下半年經濟活動將繼續下降，導致全年 GDP 收縮約 3%。

Looking to 2024. The primary elections suggest that a clear majority of Argentines favor fiscal and monitoring normalization, which would lead to a growth scenario in the medium terms as the economy stabilizes. We anticipate a significant increase in the country's commercial surplus, driven by growing agricultural exports, higher energy production and more favorable trade regulations. Contraction in economic activities is anticipated to continue during the First Quarter of 2024 with activity levels turning to positive terrain in the second half.

展望 2024 年。初選表明，絕大多數阿根廷人支持財政和監測正常化，這將導致隨著經濟穩定而在中期實現增長。我們預計，在農產品出口增長、能源產量增加和更有利的貿易法規的推動下，該國的商業順差將大幅增加。預計 2024 年第一季度經濟活動將繼續收縮，下半年活動水平將轉為積極態勢。

To conclude, we have a proven track record of operating in stable conditions and are certain of our ability to navigate through these challenges. While macroeconomic headwinds are expected to persist as we move through the remainder of the year, we are well positioned to address these challenges. In the meantime, we maintain ample liquidity and safeguard our capital against inflation, which positions us well to rebound and resume growth once the economy stabilizes.

總而言之，我們擁有在穩定條件下運營的良好記錄，並且確信我們有能力應對這些挑戰。儘管宏觀經濟逆風預計將在今年剩餘時間內持續存在，但我們已做好應對這些挑戰的準備。與此同時，我們保持充裕的流動性，保障資本免受通脹影響，這使我們能夠在經濟企穩後反彈並恢復增長。

With this, let me turn the call to Mariano, please go ahead.

現在，讓我把電話轉給馬里亞諾，請繼續。

Thank you, Patricio, and good day, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6 for an overview of our performance for the past 6 months of the year. As Patricio just noted, the consistent execution of our strategy has driven a positive swing in profitability in line with our expectations. Net income improved to ARS 7 billion with ROE at nearly 10%, up from a net loss of ARS 4.4 billion, a negative ROE of 6% in the first 6 months of last year.

謝謝你，帕特里西奧，祝大家美好。請參閱幻燈片 6，了解我們今年過去 6 個月的業績概覽。正如帕特里西奧剛才指出的那樣，我們戰略的一致執行推動了盈利能力的積極轉變，符合我們的預期。淨利潤增至 70 億阿根廷比索，淨資產收益率接近 10%，而去年前 6 個月的淨虧損為 44 億阿根廷比索，淨資產收益率為 6%。

This improved year-on-year performance was mainly driven by a combination of strong revenue growth and lower costs and provisions. Starting with revenues. Net financial income was up 9% or over ARS 7 billion, reflecting higher spreads and volumes on our investment portfolio. Our brokerage business also performed very well, driving fee income growth of slightly over 2% or close to ARS 500 million.

業績同比改善主要是由於收入強勁增長以及成本和準備金下降共同推動的。從收入開始。淨財務收入增長 9% 或超過 70 億澳元，反映出我們投資組合的利差和交易量增加。我們的經紀業務也表現出色，推動手續費收入增長略高於 2%，接近 5 億阿根廷比索。

On the cost front, rightsizing and operating efficiencies initiatives implemented in 2022 contributed to a 9% decline in personnel expenses or ARS 3.6 billion. In addition, our tight focus on cost controls resulted in a mid-single-digit year-on-year reduction in administrative expenses and D&A equivalent to savings of ARS 1.1 billion. Cost savings reflect the reduction of operating expenses as we do the transfer of smaller San Luis Province branches to Banco Nación, the decrease in corporate office lease space and selected branch closing.

在成本方面，2022 年實施的規模調整和運營效率舉措導致人員費用下降 9%，即 36 億阿根廷比索。此外，我們對成本控制的嚴格關注導致管理費用和 D&A 同比減少了中個位數，相當於節省了 11 億阿根廷比索。成本節省反映了運營費用的減少，因為我們將較小的聖路易斯省分行轉移到國家銀行，公司辦公室租賃空間的減少以及選定的分行關閉。

We also reported a good performance in loan loss provisions, down nearly 35% or close to ARS 3.3 billion reflecting both a shift away from consumer finance loans together with growth in middle market financing.

我們還報告了貸款損失撥備的良好表現，下降了近 35%，接近 33 億阿根廷比索，反映出消費金融貸款的轉變以及中間市場融資的增長。

Lastly, other income and losses declined nearly 6% or ARS 736 million, reflecting a drop in credit card benefits together with lower turnover taxes paid.

最後，其他收入和損失下降了近 6%，即 7.36 億阿根廷比索，反映了信用卡福利的下降以及支付的流轉稅的減少。

Now for a quick update on turnover taxes. There is more detail provided in our earnings release. Since 2021, the city of Buenos Aires started to tax income from Leliqs and repos with the Central Bank. And since 2023, the Province of Mendoza did the same with Leliq. Before these instruments were exempt as they were issued by a national entity. As a consequence, the Central Bank filed a claim with the Supreme Court of Justice against the tax authorities from Buenos Aires and Mendoza alleging that Leliqs are monetary policy instruments used by the National Monetary Authority that can't be interfered with by local government.

現在快速更新流轉稅。我們的財報中提供了更多細節。自 2021 年起，布宜諾斯艾利斯市開始對中央銀行的 Leliqs 和回購收入徵稅。自 2023 年以來，門多薩省對萊利克採取了同樣的做法。在此之前，這些文書是由國家實體發行的，因此受到豁免。因此，中央銀行向布宜諾斯艾利斯和門多薩的稅務機關向最高法院提出索賠，聲稱Leliqs是國家貨幣管理局使用的貨幣政策工具，地方政府不能干預。

In addition, both banking associations, ADEBA and ABA and the majority of financial institutions operating in these jurisdictions followed suit. Accordingly, we are not taxing Leliqs in Buenos Aires and Mendoza since April and January this year, respectively following the opinion of our internal and external legal advisers. Savings in turnover tax for Second Q '23 accounted for approximately 500 bps of ROE. This is in line with the Central Bank claim for the unconstitutionality of this tax, and we believe it's in the best interest of our stakeholders. These contributions to profitability were partially offset by higher taxable income and exposure of deferred tax assets to inflation.

此外，銀行業協會、ADEBA 和 ABA 以及在這些司法管轄區運營的大多數金融機構也紛紛效仿。因此，根據我們內部和外部法律顧問的意見，自今年 4 月和 1 月起，我們不再對布宜諾斯艾利斯和門多薩的 Leliqs 徵稅。 23 年第二季度流轉稅節省約佔 ROE 的 500 個基點。這符合中央銀行對這項稅收違憲的主張，我們相信這符合我們利益相關者的最佳利益。這些對盈利能力的貢獻被較高的應稅收入和遞延稅資產的通脹風險所部分抵消。

Now looking at our performance for the Second Quarter, starting with Slide 7. Total assets increased sequentially above inflation and significantly above industry growth with deposits also expanding considerably above the industry trend. Our effective asset and liability management allowed us to leverage the higher spread of short-term Central Bank securities and maximize NIM in an increasingly volatile environment. Our short-term Central Bank securities portfolio increased to nearly 43% of total assets at quarter end, up from 31% in the prior quarter, while the share of government securities declined to 8% this quarter, from nearly 11% in the past quarter.

現在看看我們第二季度的表現，從幻燈片 7 開始。總資產的增長連續高於通貨膨脹，並顯著高於行業增長，存款的增長也顯著高於行業趨勢。我們有效的資產和負債管理使我們能夠利用短期央行證券的較高利差，並在日益動蕩的環境中最大化淨息差。截至季末，我們的短期央行證券投資組合佔總資產的比例從上一季度的31% 增至近43%，而本季度政府證券的比例則從上一季度的近11% 下降至本季度的8 % 。

In turn, peso deposits increased 16% sequentially driven by growth in public sector deposits, corporate and the positive impact from the thirteenth salary. Moving on to Slide 8. Total lending (inaudible) inflation and the industry trends reflecting our prudent approach together with overall weak credit demand. As a result, total lending fell 5% sequentially. Starting this quarter, with total lending, we are providing info on off-balance sheet guarantees granted to corporate customers. This is a product area that has been growing rapidly this year.

反過來，在公共部門存款、企業存款增長以及第十三次工資的積極影響的推動下，比索存款環比增長了16%。轉到幻燈片 8。總貸款（聽不清）通貨膨脹和行業趨勢反映了我們的審慎態度以及整體疲軟的信貸需求。結果，貸款總額環比下降了 5%。從本季度開始，我們將根據貸款總額提供向企業客戶提供的表外擔保的信息。這是今年以來增長迅速的一個產品領域。

As shown on the chart to the right, as we continue to prioritize high-value customers, particularly loans to payroll, SMEs and middle market customers, consumer finance customers continue to [seed] share of total loans. Moving on to Slide 9. The total NPL ratio declined to 2.5% in the quarter, one of the lowest levels ever as we maintained tight credit scoring criteria and healthier loan mix, as I mentioned earlier. Early delinquency in tariff improved sequentially. All segments contributed to the lower NPL ratio.

如右圖所示，隨著我們繼續優先考慮高價值客戶，特別是發放給工資、中小企業和中間市場客戶的貸款，消費金融客戶繼續在總貸款中佔據[種子]份額。繼續看幻燈片 9。正如我之前提到的，由於我們保持嚴格的信用評分標準和更健康的貸款結構，本季度不良貸款總額下降至 2.5%，這是有史以來的最低水平之一。早期拖欠關稅的情況逐年改善。所有業務部門都對不良貸款率下降做出了貢獻。

Moreover, the sale of delinquent consumer loan portfolio together with the upgrade of the corporate customers to Stage 2 from Stage 3 contributed to bringing the coverage ratio to 148%, up from 116% in the prior quarter. Now please turn to Slide 10. Net financial margin increased 20% sequentially to over ARS 48 billion in the quarter. Higher investment portfolio volumes along with increased returns driven by sustained interest rate hikes following rising inflation contributed to higher NIM in the quarter. Expanding 470 basis points sequentially and 780 basis points year-on-year to 26.6%.

此外，出售拖欠消費貸款組合以及將企業客戶從第三階段升級到第二階段，使得覆蓋率從上一季度的116%上升至148%。現在請翻到幻燈片 10。本季度淨財務利潤率環比增長 20%，超過 480 億阿根廷比索。投資組合規模的增加以及通脹上升後持續加息推動的回報增加導致本季度淨息差上升。環比擴大 470 個基點，同比擴大 780 個基點至 26.6%。

This high level of NIM continued into July and August. As shown on Slide 11, the efficiency ratio for the quarter improved to 62.5% from nearly 72% in the prior quarter and just over 81% a year ago. The sequential improvement reflects revenue growth of over 16%, coupled with a 7.6% increase in expenses. Note that personnel expenses were up 12% in the period as salaries in June were adjusted ahead of inflation. On an accumulated basis, expenses for the first half of the year decreased to -- close to 7%, while revenues were up 9%.

這種高水平的淨息差一直持續到七月和八月。如幻燈片 11 所示，本季度的效率從上一季度的近 72% 提高到 62.5%，一年前略高於 81%。環比改善反映了收入增長超過 16%，加上支出增長 7.6%。請注意，由於 6 月份的工資在通貨膨脹之前進行了調整，因此在此期間的人事費用上漲了 12%。按累計計算，上半年費用下降至接近 7%，而收入則增長 9%。

Moving on to capitalization on Slide 12. We continue to build capital in the quarter with our Tier 1 ratio increasing 1% -- 1 percentage point sequentially to 15.7%. This increase is mainly explained by positive bank's net results together with dividends received at the holding company level from other subsidiaries. Also, risk-weighted assets increased low inflation in the quarter, reflecting loan portfolio contraction in real term.

繼續幻燈片 12 上的資本化。本季度我們繼續增加資本，一級資本比率增加 1%，比上一季度增加 1 個百分點，達到 15.7%。這一增長主要是由於銀行的淨利潤以及控股公司層面從其他子公司收到的股息所致。此外，風險加權資產增加了本季度的低通脹，反映出貸款組合的實際收縮。

Before opening for Q&A, please turn to Slide 13 to review our perspectives for the full year 2023. Taking into account the recent macro trends discussed by Patricio, we have revised our perspective on the following line items. With respect to asset quality, although NPL is at very low levels, we now anticipate net cost of risk for 2023 to range between 4.5% to 5%. This is about the cost of risk for first half '23, but inflation is most likely to rise sharply in the third and fourth quarters, eroding individual disposable income and impacting certain commercial business.

在開始問答之前，請翻到幻燈片 13，回顧一下我們對 2023 年全年的看法。考慮到 Patricio 討論的近期宏觀趨勢，我們修改了對以下項目的看法。就資產質量而言，儘管不良貸款處於非常低的水平，但我們目前預計 2023 年的淨風險成本將在 4.5% 至 5% 之間。這大約是23年上半年的風險成本，但通脹最有可能在第三和第四季度大幅上升，侵蝕個人可支配收入並影響某些商業業務。

Additionally, we now expect the NPL ratio at year-end to range between 2.5% and 3%, well before we anticipated closing the year with an NPL ratio at a higher level, ranging between those observed during the fourth quarter '22 and first quarter '23.

此外，我們現在預計年底的不良貸款率將在 2.5% 至 3% 之間，遠早於我們預期年底不良貸款率處於較高水平（介於 22 年第四季度和第一季度之間） '23 。

In a higher interest rate environment and given the good year-to-date NIM performance of 24% we expect NIM for the year to remain similar to the level reported in the first half. In terms of fees, in the current context, we now expect softer insurance fees in real terms than earlier in the year. By contrast, brokerage fees will be higher this year as this business benefits from higher volatility.

在利率較高的環境下，鑑於年初至今 24% 的良好淨息差表現，我們預計今年的淨息差將保持與上半年報告的水平相似。就費用而言，在當前情況下，我們預計實際保險費用將比今年早些時候有所下降。相比之下，今年的經紀費用將會更高，因為該業務受益於更高的波動性。

Our view on the bulk of bank fees to individual remains unchanged with these fees expected to reprice in line with inflation. With respect to profitability, we now anticipate ROE to remain at levels observed in the first half of the year where before, we expected a positive but lower ROE. Note that while ROE reported in the Second Quarter '23 benefited from extraordinary spreads and volumes in our investment portfolio performance has been good in July and August to date. We are also increasing our Tier 1 ratio expectation in the range of 14% to 16% by year-end, up from 13% to 14% before. As a reminder, 100% of our capital remains hedged against inflation. Beyond these changes, our 2023 expectations for all other metrics remain unchanged from our prior quarter views.

我們對銀行向個人收取的大部分費用的看法保持不變，這些費用預計將根據通貨膨脹重新定價。就盈利能力而言，我們現在預計淨資產收益率將保持在上半年的水平，此前我們預計淨資產收益率為正但較低。請注意，雖然 23 年第二季度報告的股本回報率受益於我們投資組合的非凡利差和交易量，但迄今為止，我們的投資組合表現在 7 月和 8 月一直表現良好。我們還將一級資本比率預期從之前的 13% 至 14% 上調至年底 14% 至 16%。提醒一下，我們 100% 的資本仍然對沖通脹。除了這些變化之外，我們對 2023 年所有其他指標的預期與上一季度的觀點保持不變。

Now we are ready to open the floor for questions. Ana, please go ahead.

現在我們準備開始提問。安娜，請繼續。

Thank you, Mariano. At this time, we will be conducting the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

謝謝你，馬里亞諾。此時，我們將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的埃內斯托·加比隆多（Ernesto Gabilondo）。

Congrats on your results, and thanks for the opportunity. My question will be on your impressions on the economic and political outlook after the primaries we have seen Milei got like the preference on the borders. So I would like to hear your thoughts. If Milei is elected President, he will likely need to make agreements to pass some of his campaign proposals, which I think could prevent a fast dollarization of the economy or to protect the Central Bank. However, at the same time, it could be a challenge to get into agreements to approve structural reforms, which I think are highly needed especially when Argentina has inflation and interest rates above 100%. So I would like to hear your views on what are your first impressions on the economic and the political outlook going forward?

祝賀您的成果，並感謝您提供的機會。我的問題是你對初選後經濟和政治前景的印象，我們看到米萊在邊境上獲得了優先權。所以我想听聽你的想法。如果米萊當選總統，他可能需要達成協議以通過他的一些競選提案，我認為這可以防止經濟快速美元化或保護央行。然而，與此同時，達成批准結構性改革的協議可能是一個挑戰，我認為這是非常需要的，特別是當阿根廷的通貨膨脹和利率高於 100% 時。所以我想听聽您對未來經濟和政治前景的第一印像是什麼？

Thank you, Ernesto. I will refer the answer to Alejandro. Simply, I would like to first start by saying that, of course, these results were a sort of a surprise for all of us. We did not expect a 1/3 scenario, which for each candidate more or less, and this reflects uncertainty but at the same time, a majority of Argentinians are demanding a change towards lower size of government, lower taxes and more of a private economy, creating jobs. So this is good. But as you well said, we need -- I mean, the next government will need teams, will need to make agreements because there are many structural changes that need to be done in the country, and this is quite a challenging scenario for next government. Alejandro, do you want to add?

謝謝你，埃內斯托。我將把答案轉給亞歷杭德羅。簡而言之，我首先想說的是，當然，這些結果對我們所有人來說都是一個驚喜。我們沒想到會出現1/3 的情況，這對每個候選人或多或少都有影響，這反映了不確定性，但與此同時，大多數阿根廷人要求改變政府規模、降低稅收和更多的私營經濟，創造就業機會。所以這很好。但正如你所說，我們需要——我的意思是，下一屆政府將需要團隊，需要達成協議，因為該國需要進行許多結構性變革，這對下一屆政府來說是一個相當具有挑戰性的情況。亞歷杭德羅，你想補充嗎？

Yes, thank you for your question. I think that basically, the surprise in the actual outcome has introduced a greater degree of volatility that we've seen in the markets. However, having said that, the levels of deposits in pesos and dollars have remained pretty stable. And the devaluation of 22% in the official exchange units, followed by an increase from 97% to 118% in the reference peso interest rate, are trying to anchor future expectations of inflation and judging by the (inaudible) contracts we show as of yesterday, this could hold up to some point in September or the middle of October.

是的，謝謝你的提問。我認為基本上，實際結果的意外帶來了我們在市場上看到的更大程度的波動。然而，話雖如此，比索和美元存款水平仍然相當穩定。官方匯率單位貶值 22%，隨後參考比索利率從 97% 上升至 118%，正試圖錨定未來的通脹預期，從我們昨天展示的（聽不清）合約來看，這可能會持續到九月或十月中旬的某個時候。

That is that after an initial turbulence, the guidelines of the government by which with these two movements, they would try to anchor the future devaluations and future increases in interest rates up to October, it seemed to be as of now, reasonably in line with what the government would like to have. Having said that, what we saw is that gap with the financial exchange rates moved up, moved and maintained the 100% [cap]. And this will create a pass-through situation. And therefore, we are expecting inflation over the next months to go into the double-digit zone for August and September, for sure.

也就是說，在最初的動蕩之後，政府的指導方針通過這兩次行動，試圖將未來的貶值和未來的利率上升固定到十月份，到目前為止，這似乎與政府想要什麼。話雖如此，我們看到的是金融匯率的差距擴大、擴大並維持在 100% [上限]。這會造成一種傳遞的情況。因此，我們預計未來幾個月的通脹率肯定會在 8 月和 9 月進入兩位數區域。

Now going back to -- that's overall as what we see going on with the macro. If you extend that beyond October, we think that the government will do everything in its hands and its reach to avoid further devaluations and having reached an agreement with the IMF and having some boost even if used to pay back debt in our central bank reserves is a help in that direction. And therefore, we think that we will try to definitely avoid further devaluations further -- after October, but there is a chance that, that might happen when you look at the greater inflation that we expect.

現在回到我們所看到的宏觀情況。如果將這一期限延長到十月之後，我們認為政府將竭盡全力避免貨幣進一步貶值，並與國際貨幣基金組織達成協議，即使用於償還我們央行儲備中的債務，也能獲得一定的提振。朝這個方向提供幫助。因此，我們認為，十月份之後，我們將盡力避免進一步的貨幣貶值，但當你看到我們預期的更高通脹時，這種情況有可能發生。

In terms of what would happen with Milei becoming elected, I think you're quite right in terms of alliances, if his performance at the ballot box in October was similar to the one he had on August 13 he would get roughly 40 representatives in the House of Representatives and 8 Senators. And that clearly is very far from the majorities needed to pass a legislation. Therefore, he would go into alliances, which will probably make it more difficult to move too quickly into dollarization or changing the charter or even eliminating the central bank.

至於 Milei 當選後會發生什麼，我認為你在聯盟方面是非常正確的，如果他 10 月份在投票箱中的表現與他 8 月 13 日的表現相似，他將在選舉中獲得大約 40 名代表。眾議院8名，參議員8名。這顯然距離通過立法所需的多數票還很遠。因此，他會結成聯盟，這可能會讓過快地美元化、改變章程甚至取消央行變得更加困難。

We think that he would probably prioritized together with his allies are very quick devaluation and stabilization plan with strict fiscal and monetary policy, you would initially have significant inflation and then it should be going down towards the second half of 2024. Definitely, it will be a challenge for him to create these alliances and to create support for the legislation that he wants to pass through Congress.

我們認為，他可能會與他的盟友一起優先考慮非常快速的貶值和穩定計劃，以及嚴格的財政和貨幣政策，最初會出現嚴重的通貨膨脹，然後應該在2024 年下半年下降。當然，這會是對他來說，建立這些聯盟並為他希望在國會通過的立法提供支持是一項挑戰。

We think that on many areas, for example, labor reform there will be consensus in moving forward and probably the most radical of his proposals will take longer, something that he and his team more recently have been acknowledging that will take a little bit more time and require a little bit more of understanding of the situation they get before they change government and understand what the situation that they are receiving is. I hope I've given you sort of a broad brush answer to a rather complex question.

我們認為，在許多領域，例如勞工改革，在推進過程中將會達成共識，而他最激進的提議可能需要更長的時間，他和他的團隊最近已經承認這將需要更多的時間並要求他們在更換政府之前對他們所面臨的情況有更多的了解，並了解他們所面臨的情況是什麼。我希望我已經為您提供了一個相當複雜的問題的粗略答案。

Yes. Just kind of follow-up in terms of a potential dollarization of the economy. I believe Bullrich is also proposing to dollarize the economy but at a much lengthier pace now when compared to Milei, but I think both of the candidates are going into that direction. So if we go into this dollarized economy, what could be the impact for the Argentine banks? And what is your current strategy in paper linked to inflation and dollars at the moment?

是的。只是經濟潛在美元化的後續行動。我相信布爾里奇也提議將經濟美元化，但與米雷相比，現在的步伐要長得多，但我認為兩位候選人都在朝著這個方向前進。那麼，如果我們進入這種美元化經濟，會對阿根廷銀行產生什麼影響？您當前與通脹和美元相關的紙面策略是什麼？

Sure, I can take a shot and then Patricio and Mariano can answer. First of all, our information about what the Bullrich team is looking into -- they have been talking more of a bimonitary economy rather than going full-fledged to dollarization. At least that's the information we have so far. Now in terms of what the impact of dollarization would be on banks, we see positive and negative effects. On the positive side, what you would very quickly see is a sharp decline in interest rates. And therefore, this sharp decline would probably create significant demand -- credit demand. Remember that currently, credit to private sector as a percentage of GDP is close to all-time lows at around 7.5%.

當然，我可以嘗試一下，然後帕特里西奧和馬里亞諾就可以回答。首先，我們了解 Bullrich 團隊正在研究的內容——他們更多地談論的是雙貨幣經濟，而不是全面的美元化。至少這是我們迄今為止所掌握的信息。現在就美元化對銀行的影響而言，我們看到了積極和消極的影響。從積極的一面來看，你很快就會看到利率急劇下降。因此，這種急劇下降可能會創造巨大的需求——信貸需求。請記住，目前私營部門信貸佔 GDP 的比例接近歷史最低水平，約為 7.5%。

If you would like to have a proxy of what the upside could be, you could go back to the convertibility where it was close to 25%. So a sharp decline in interest rates will probably boost demand and increase significantly from current levels, credit demand of the private sector. You'll also see very likely an extension of durations in these loans. And you would also see a much better functioning of the capital markets to provide long-term financing, both to the market and to the banks. So all these would be actually very good effects, very positive effects.

如果您想了解上漲空間，您可以回到接近 25% 的兌換率。因此，利率的大幅下降可能會提振需求，並使私營部門的信貸需求在目前水平上大幅增加。您還很可能會看到這些貸款期限的延長。您還將看到資本市場的功能得到更好的發揮，為市場和銀行提供長期融資。所以所有這些實際上都是非常好的效果，非常積極的效果。

On the negative effects, one very important difference is that you lose the lender of last resort and the role of lender of last resort in case of a financial crisis. And this would probably make banks at least initially very prudent in the policies that they have to whom and under what conditions they extend credit. I think that's like a broad brush summary of positive and negative effects. I don't know if Mariano or Patricio would like to add to that.

就負面影響而言，一個非常重要的區別是，您失去了最後貸款人以及在發生金融危機時失去最後貸款人的角色。這可能會讓銀行至少在一開始在向誰以及在什麼條件下提供信貸的政策上非常謹慎。我認為這就像對積極和消極影響的粗略總結。我不知道馬里亞諾或帕特里西奧是否願意補充這一點。

I would like to add a few other positive effects but I, of course, am building on what Alejandro said, I think another positive effect would be a -- dollarization would imply also more liquidity for the banking system in the sense and a substantial growth in deposits because Argentines have the custom of saving part of their wealth approach, and then they would have the opportunity to invest in a -- put the deposits in Argentine banks. There's another thing also important. I think that with dollarization you remove the currency risk for foreign investments. So potentially, it could be a booster for foreign investments in the country that would be good for the banks and also for the economy as a whole.

我想補充一些其他積極影響，但當然，我是在亞歷杭德羅所說的基礎上進行的，我認為另一個積極影響是——美元化也意味著銀行體系的流動性增加，以及大幅增長。因為阿根廷人有將部分財富儲蓄起來的習慣，然後他們就有機會投資——把存款存入阿根廷銀行。還有一件事也很重要。我認為，通過美元化，可以消除外國投資的貨幣風險。因此，這可能會促進該國的外國投資，這對銀行和整個經濟都有好處。

And finally, I think also that dollarization could trigger at a certain point in time, a consolidation because I think if you look at what happens in the past 25 years, there was no -- the only moment of consolidation when -- the real moment of consolidation was when there was a crisis in 2002, a big financial crisis. Then afterwards, they weren't just -- some transactions in terms of M&A, but they were only few of them, it was not a driver of consolidation. And I think it has to do a lot with a risk sensation for from management of banks towards making potential moves. When you remove the currency effect, and you have, let's say, dollar deposits. I think it's a major change and that major change could lead to a consolidation at a certain point in time, which I think is very good.

最後，我還認為，美元化可能會在某個時間點引發一場整合，因為我認為，如果你看看過去25 年發生的事情，就會發現，沒有——唯一的整合時刻——真正的時刻。整合發生在 2002 年發生危機時，一場嚴重的金融危機。然後，他們不僅僅是——一些併購方面的交易，但只是其中的一小部分，這不是整合的驅動力。我認為這與銀行管理層採取潛在行動的風險意識有很大關係。當你消除貨幣效應時，你就有了美元存款。我認為這是一個重大變化，而且這個重大變化可能會在某個時間點導致整合，我認為這是非常好的。

No, excellent. I think you made very interesting points. Just thinking if we have this dollarized economy, as you mentioned, that could help to have lower rates and to improve the lending activity in Argentina. How should we think about next year if that happens, considering that this year, most of the Argentine banks have benefited a lot from the asset liability management and investing in the Leliqs and repos and government paper. So how do you think that will be sustainable for next year?

不，非常好。我認為你提出了非常有趣的觀點。想想如果我們擁有這種美元化的經濟，正如您提到的，這可能有助於降低利率並改善阿根廷的貸款活動。如果發生這種情況，我們應該如何看待明年，考慮到今年大多數阿根廷銀行都從資產負債管理以及對 Leliqs、回購協議和政府票據的投資中受益匪淺。那麼您認為明年這種情況的可持續性如何？

I think that with consolidation at a certain point in time, there will be -- I'm sorry, with fiscal consolidation and fiscal normalization at certain points in time, there will be a pickup in loan demand, and then the assets that banks have today, in -- particularly on Central Bank securities, they will be transformed into loans and -- which is very healthy, by the way. Do you want to build on this answer?

我認為，隨著某個時間點的整頓，抱歉，隨著某個時間點的財政整頓和財政正常化，貸款需求將會增加，然後銀行擁有的資產也會增加今天，特別是中央銀行證券，它們將轉化為貸款，順便說一句，這是非常健康的。您想以此答案為基礎嗎？

Yes, I think for next year, we will see at the beginning, more or less what is happening now until the macro stabilizes, we will most probably see high levels of inflation, high levels of interest rates and then decreasing -- the inflation finally goes down, which is what we expect after the fiscal deficit is reduced and certain tariffs and other prices -- relative prices are fixed. So in that context, what we believe is that we will see a pickup in loan demand, first from the -- most probably from the corporate sector and then from individuals, which will, in turn, replace the Leliqs, which is our main asset class today.

是的，我認為明年，我們將在一開始或多或少地看到現在正在發生的事情，直到宏觀穩定，我們很可能會看到高水平的通脹、高利率，然後下降——通脹最終下降，這是我們在財政赤字減少、某些關稅和其他價格（相對價格固定）之後所預期的情況。因此，在這種情況下，我們認為，我們將看到貸款需求的增加，首先來自——最有可能來自企業部門，然後來自個人，這反過來將取代我們的主要資產 Leliqs今天上課。

So that will allow us to replace the financial margin generated or obtained from Central Bank loans to financial margin obtained from loans, which would be our main business. Remember that in the past, we used to have a higher NIM than the industry. Now our NIM, although it's at very high levels, it's similar to the industry because all banks are doing the same, we are capturing deposits and investing in the Leliqs and treasury bonds. So what we expect for the midterm is that Leliqs, most -- all Central Bank instruments, the Leliqs and repos will be finally replaced growth in the loan portfolio and having a more sustainable long-term NIM.

這樣我們就可以把從央行貸款中產生或獲得的財務保證金替換為從貸款中獲得的財務保證金，這將是我們的主營業務。請記住，過去我們的淨息差曾經高於行業。現在我們的淨息差，雖然處於非常高的水平，但與行業相似，因為所有銀行都在做同樣的事情，我們正在吸收存款並投資於 Leliqs 和國債。因此，我們對中期的預期是，Leliqs、大多數——所有央行工具、Leliqs 和回購協議將最終取代貸款組合的增長，並擁有更可持續的長期淨息差。

We have a second question now -- new question from Carlo Gomez-Lopez.

現在我們有第二個問題——卡洛·戈麥斯-洛佩茲提出的新問題。

So you talked about the surprise in the past elections. I've been surprised by the good results of the banks in this Second Quarter. And I was wondering, it applies to all the banks, right? All of you have had a particularly good second quarter. Should we understand that there is some element of either the interest rates or inflation evolving in a particular way, this quarter, which is different from the first, perhaps different from the third. Can we really extrapolate the second quarter or this first half of the year into the second half? I understand there's a lot of uncertainty. We don't know what is going to happen, but that will be my general question. Is this -- doesn't this feel a bit extraordinary, and would the normal profitability will be lower than this?

所以你談到了過去選舉中的驚喜。我對銀行第二季度的良好業績感到驚訝。我想知道，這適用於所有銀行，對嗎？你們所有人都度過了特別好的第二季度。我們是否應該理解，本季度利率或通脹的某些因素以特定方式演變，這與第一個季度不同，也許與第三個季度不同。我們真的可以將第二季度或上半年推算到下半年嗎？我知道有很多不確定性。我們不知道會發生什麼，但這將是我的一般問題。這是不是感覺有點不尋常啊，正常的盈利能力會比這個低嗎？

Thank you, Carlos. Mariano will answer your question.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。馬里亞諾將回答你的問題。

Yes, sure, Patricio. So as you said, this quarter was somehow extraordinary. But nonetheless, we are seeing similar NIMs and spread during July and last time of August. So we will probably see a third quarter still probably in line with the second Q, but more broadly, stabilizing in the fourth quarter. So maybe this is not the level of spreads that we expect for middle or longer term, but it still has some time to run, particularly into the third quarter.

是的，當然，帕特里西奧。正如您所說，這個季度在某種程度上是非同尋常的。但儘管如此，我們在 7 月和 8 月最後一段時間看到了類似的淨息差和傳播情況。因此，我們可能會看到第三季度仍可能與第二季度保持一致，但更廣泛地說，第四季度會趨於穩定。因此，也許這不是我們預期的中長期利差水平，但它仍然需要一段時間，特別是進入第三季度。

Sorry, Carlos, I would also like to add that the swing factor that you see -- that you have seen in our case. It also reflects all the structural changes and consolidations that we have been conducting over the past year by basically benefiting from the fact that the Consumer Finance business, which was a lagging factor for us is no longer there. And also we've been doing, I think, a pretty good job in terms of consolidating branches that are one close to the other and we have all -- we have built digital capabilities today that expand the footprint and we can open individual accounts or enterprise accounts out of our branch network. And so we are very happy on that. And so we are sort of -- we are preparing the company to -- for the next -- for a stabilized economy and preparing for growth again.

抱歉，卡洛斯，我還想補充一下您在我們的案例中看到的搖擺因素。這也反映了我們在過去一年中進行的所有結構性變革和整合，基本上受益於消費金融業務（對我們來說是一個滯後因素）不再存在。我認為，在整合彼此接近的分支機構方面，我們一直做得非常好，而且我們擁有所有 - 我們今天已經建立了數字能力，可以擴大足跡，我們可以開設個人賬戶或我們的分支機構網絡之外的企業帳戶。所以我們對此感到非常高興。因此，我們正在為公司做好準備，為接下來的經濟穩定並再次增長做好準備。

Okay. And now it is true, your -- the gap in profitability with the other banks is narrower. So again, my question will refer to all the industry because all the industry has been quite profitable. But you are right, Supervielle has gotten closer to the other banks. There's no question about that. If I can follow up a little bit. Going into 2024 and 2025, and I know that you wish you knew like all of us did.

好的。現在確實如此，您與其他銀行的盈利能力差距正在縮小。再說一次，我的問題將涉及所有行業，因為所有行業都非常有利可圖。但你是對的，Supervielle 已經與其他銀行走得更近了。毫無疑問。如果我能跟進一點的話。進入 2024 年和 2025 年，我知道您希望像我們所有人一樣知道這一點。

But realistically, I mean, it seems reasonable to expect that there has to be some type of adjustment -- of real adjustment of the variables becoming more real, the foreign exchange, the tariffs, everything has to adjust, has to go back to a more normal level. From the outside that would seem contractionary. And therefore, that the next, I would say, 1 year, 1.5 years might be tough. Now that's 1 perspective. How do you see it? And how are you positioning the bank for the next 2 years?

但實際上，我的意思是，預期必須進行某種類型的調整似乎是合理的——變量的實際調整變得更加真實，外匯、關稅，一切都必須調整，必須回到一個合理的狀態。比較正常的水平。從表面上看，這似乎是緊縮的。因此，接下來的 1 年、1.5 年可能會很艱難。現在這是 1 種觀點。你怎麼看？您對銀行未來兩年的定位如何？

Alejandro, if you can?

亞歷杭德羅，如果可以的話？

Sure. There is no question, Carlos, that we will see volatility in the next year or 1.5 years. Having said that, in terms of the bank strategy, we're not changing our strategy. We're still targeting our key market segments. We are focusing on middle to high-income individuals on one hand and trying to give them the best digital experience. We are also focusing on SMEs, and we're making good progress there as they -- we do significant cross-sell and innovation in those parts.

當然。卡洛斯，毫無疑問我們將在明年或 1.5 年看到波動。話雖如此，就銀行戰略而言，我們並沒有改變我們的戰略。我們仍然瞄准我們的關鍵細分市場。我們一方面關注中高收入人群，努力為他們提供最好的數字體驗。我們還關注中小企業，我們在這些方面取得了良好的進展——我們在這些方面進行了重大的交叉銷售和創新。

Now in terms of the impacts of the stabilization plan, we think that initially, it will be recessionary. We are imagining 2024 with a decline in GDP of roughly 2.5% -- 2.3% and that would probably affect certain customer segments that are linked to consumption. But at the same time, two or three very positive things will be happening in the Argentine economy, sectors to which we are exposed. One is a significant change in the commercial balance for the energy sector. As you're probably aware, we are going from a deficit in our energy trade to a very significant surplus which will probably be heightened towards the second half of next year.

現在就穩定計劃的影響而言，我們認為最初將是衰退性的。我們預計 2024 年 GDP 將下降約 2.5% 至 2.3%，這可能會影響與消費相關的某些客戶群。但與此同時，我們所涉足的阿根廷經濟將發生兩三件非常積極的事情。一是能源行業商業平衡發生重大變化。正如您可能知道的那樣，我們的能源貿易將從赤字轉變為非常可觀的順差，到明年下半年，這種順差可能會加劇。

And we also have significant growth and investment in mining. And at the same time, the impact of the drought will have gone, so you're likely to have a big swing also that will help you in terms of Central Bank reserves, creating a difference estimated by some economists at around $20,000 million. All this will have an extremely positive effect towards the second half of the year on these sectors to which we are exposed.

我們在採礦業也有顯著的增長和投資。與此同時，乾旱的影響將會消失，因此央行儲備金可能也會出現大幅波動，這將給你帶來幫助，一些經濟學家估計，這會產生約 200 億美元的差異。所有這些都將對下半年我們所涉足的這些行業產生極其積極的影響。

So the answer would be 2024 is going to be a very [binary] year, you're going to see a very complicated first half with high inflation and deep recession as interest rates go up probably to control as best as possible this inflation. But then the second half with a significant change in expectations and being exposed to some of the sectors I mentioned, should help us drive growth in the direction we wanted because these are export-oriented segments that will have a significant advantage after the stabilization and the foreign currency adjustments.

因此，答案是 2024 年將是非常[二元]的一年，你將看到一個非常複雜的上半年，高通脹和深度衰退，因為利率可能會上升，以盡可能最好地控制通脹。但下半年，預期發生重大變化，並接觸到我提到的一些行業，應該有助於我們朝著我們想要的方向推動增長，因為這些是出口導向型細分市場，在穩定和經濟復甦後將具有顯著優勢。外幣調整。

I would like to add on what Alejandro said, in all those sectors that Alejandro mentioned, we are starting -- we have started to grow more aggressively. And we see also today already results that we are going above the market. So the decline that you were seeing in the first 2 quarters, we want to change this to grow in terms of market share. But also, the other thing is that we have -- if you look into our past history, a large part of the high NIMS was due to a big percentage of mid market share in personal loans, due to our large segments of individuals that get their salaries or their pensions, particularly senior citizens.

我想補充一下亞歷杭德羅所說的，在亞歷杭德羅提到的所有這些領域，我們正在開始——我們已經開始更積極地增長。今天我們還看到我們已經超越市場的結果。因此，您在前兩個季度看到的下降，我們希望改變這種情況，以提高市場份額。而且，另一件事是，如果你回顧一下我們過去的歷史，就會發現高淨息差管理系統的很大一部分是由於個人貸款中端市場份額的很大一部分，因為我們有很大一部分個人獲得了貸款他們的工資或養老金，特別是老年人。

When inflation goes down, we will start to see, again, the effect of high NIMS in personal loans, probably in the second half of 2024 and that will help us to resume growth, to get profitability from that side also. I want to add, I think is -- I don't know, you want to add something?

當通貨膨脹下降時，我們將開始再次看到個人貸款中高淨息差管理系統的影響，可能是在 2024 年下半年，這將幫助我們恢復增長，並從這方面獲得盈利。我想補充一點，我想是——我不知道，你想補充什麼嗎？

I can maybe add just a brief summary on the very short-term view. So how we are positioned to go through these upcoming months, where we for sure are going to see a lot of volatility. Right now we are very liquid. It's important to highlight that we're very liquid both in pesos and U.S. dollars. After the elections, for instance, we didn't see any reduction in deposits, in particular, dollar deposits were very stable. But we are keeping levels of liquidity of about 70% and also in pesos because our -- 40% of our assets is in Leliqs -- Leliqs or repos with the central bank. Repos are 1 day. Leliqs are 28 days, but they are issued every week. So they have a tenure of about 14 days on average.

我也許可以對短期觀點做一個簡短的總結。那麼我們如何應對接下來的幾個月，我們肯定會看到很多波動。現在我們的流動性很強。需要強調的是，我們的比索和美元都具有很強的流動性。比如選舉之後，我們沒有看到存款有任何減少，特別是美元存款非常穩定。但我們將流動性水平保持在 70% 左右，而且也是以比索計，因為我們 40% 的資產是 Leliqs，即 Leliqs 或中央銀行的回購協議。回購期限為 1 天。 Leliqs 的有效期為 28 天，但每週都會發行。因此，他們的平均任期約為 14 天。

So that and having [cash] on very short-term loans makes us have a very short-term balance with high liquidity again, both in pesos and dollars, and we are 100% hedged against inflation. There we have real estate, we have mortgages that are judged by [UVA], and we have treasury bonds that are judged by [CER] by the inflation index. And then on top of that, we have also a position in treasury bonds that is more tactical, where we can be long in U.S. dollars.

因此，在非常短期的貸款上擁有[現金]，使我們再次擁有非常短期的餘額和高流動性，無論是比索還是美元，而且我們 100% 對沖通脹。在那裡，我們有房地產，我們有按 [UVA] 判斷的抵押貸款，我們有按通貨膨脹指數 [CER] 判斷的國債。除此之外，我們還持有更具戰術性的國債頭寸，我們可以做多美元。

Remember that our position in U.S. dollar must be net, that's a net position of 0, but we can go long through dollar link bonds or dual bonds, which pay the higher inflation or dollars. So that's how we're positioned for the short term to have liquidity and also make some profitability that will allow us to build capital for growth.

請記住，我們的美元頭寸必須是淨頭寸，即淨頭寸為 0，但我們可以通過美元掛鉤債券或雙重債券做多，這些債券支付更高的通貨膨脹或美元。因此，這就是我們在短期內的定位，既能獲得流動性，又能獲得一定的盈利能力，從而為增長積累資本。

Okay. A technical question on the dual bonds, as you said, you can receive your payment in dollars or in pesos. They are accounted as foreign currency or a local currency?

好的。關於雙重債券的技術問題，正如您所說，您可以以美元或比索收到付款。它們是記為外幣還是本幣？

No. They are paid in pesos. If the valuation is higher than inflation, they pay the difference in the exchange rate, but they are paying in pesos, and they don't count for the foreign currency position. So that's why we don't have a limit on those bonds because they are accounted for as if they were 100% pesos.

不。他們的工資是比索。如果估值高於通貨膨脹，他們會支付匯率差額，但他們以比索支付，並且不計入外幣頭寸。這就是為什麼我們對這些債券沒有限制，因為它們被視為 100% 比索。

So effectively, you can go loan dollars through the dual bonds?

那麼實際上，你可以通過雙重債券去貸美元嗎？

Correct. We can go up to 30% with total link bonds and beyond that because they don't count in the foreign exchange position through dual bonds.

正確的。我們可以將鏈接債券總額提高到 30% 甚至更高，因為它們不計入通過雙重債券的外匯頭寸中。

So is there a limit to the linked bonds?

那麼關聯債券有上限嗎？

No, there's there no limit. Of course, we have our internal policy of risk limit, but there's no limits on the foreign currency exposure side for the Supervielle Bank.

不，沒有限制。當然，我們有內部風險限制政策，但超級銀行的外幣敞口方面沒有限制。

Thank you, Carlos. We have a question from Rodrigo Nistor from Latin Securities.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。我們有來自拉丁證券的羅德里戈·尼斯托爾 (Rodrigo Nistor) 的提問。

Good morning, everyone. In light of the prevailing inflationary environment, we have seen a raise in terms of deposits as a proportion of the banking sector funding base and some deposits moving to the money market funds. So I also was thinking at Patricio's comments before. So do you think this can limit your margins once exposure to the public sector reduces. And then if you can provide us with a brief comment on competition in platforms like (inaudible) are impacting already in your funding availability? Thank you.

大家，早安。鑑於當前的通貨膨脹環境，我們看到存款佔銀行業融資基礎的比例有所上升，並且一些存款轉向貨幣市場基金。所以我之前也思考過Patricio的評論。那麼，您認為一旦公共部門的風險敞口減少，這會限制您的利潤嗎？然後，您是否可以向我們提供一個關於平台競爭的簡短評論，例如（聽不清）已經影響您的資金可用性？謝謝。

Yes. The first part, Rodrigo, regarding funding, as you said, more and more funds are being allocated by corporates and individuals to mutual funds or money market funds --mainly money market funds, so that's why savings accounts and current accounts in the industry in (inaudible) are growing below inflation because we saw high rate of inflation. People and companies will allocate more funds to interest -- assets that accrue some interest. But on the other hand, we see a growth in deposits also from the institutional side.

是的。第一部分，羅德里戈，關於資金，正如您所說，越來越多的資金被企業和個人配置到共同基金或貨幣市場基金——主要是貨幣市場基金，所以這就是為什麼該行業的儲蓄賬戶和活期賬戶（聽不清）增長低於通貨膨脹，因為我們看到了高通貨膨脹率。人們和公司將把更多的資金分配給利息——產生一些利息的資產。但另一方面，我們也看到機構方面的存款有所增長。

So that partially offset the extremely high NIM that we will have if all funds will stay in savings account or current accounts, but as deposits are growing more or less in line with inflation, we're expecting to grow a bit less maybe 5% to 10% less, but with an inflation of more than 100%. That's not a big difference. So that growth in deposit allows us to keep margins quite at high levels. I don't know if I answered the first part of the question, so maybe Alejandro or Patricio want to comment on the second part.

因此，如果所有資金都保留在儲蓄賬戶或活期賬戶中，那麼這部分抵消了我們將擁有的極高的淨息差，但隨著存款的增長或多或少與通貨膨脹一致，我們預計增長會稍微少一點，也許是5%減少 10%，但通貨膨脹卻超過 100%。這沒什麼大區別。因此，存款的增長使我們能夠將利潤率保持在較高水平。我不知道我是否回答了問題的第一部分，所以也許亞歷杭德羅或帕特里西奧想對第二部分發表評論。

Yes. I mean I think you raised the point of savings and deposits moving to money market funds, and you mentioned a couple of fintechs. And basically, I think that when inflation is over 100%, people -- Argentines they want to have their certain protection for their money because of the losing of purchasing power with inflation. And we believe that there is a threat particularly, yes, on fintechs because they offer a very simple way of protecting their savings or salaries, whatever.

是的。我的意思是，我認為您提出了儲蓄和存款轉向貨幣市場基金的觀點，並且您提到了一些金融科技公司。基本上，我認為當通貨膨脹超過 100% 時，人們——阿根廷人——他們希望自己的錢得到一定的保護，因為購買力會隨著通貨膨脹而喪失。我們認為，是的，金融科技尤其存在威脅，因為它們提供了一種非常簡單的方法來保護他們的儲蓄或工資等。

So what we have done is the reason why we were the first bank in Argentina to have a simple way of investing in (inaudible) in a way, in a very rapid way, 7 days a week, you can invest or remove the fund from your investment any day of the week at any time. And this is a way of protecting because it exactly what the fintechs were doing and it's kind of strange that still you don't see the bulk of banks that are reacting to that. But I think that there will be changes. What we have done probably will be copied right by others at a certain point in time.

因此，我們所做的就是我們成為阿根廷第一家採用簡單投資方式（聽不清）的銀行，以一種非常快速的方式，每週 7 天，您可以投資或提取資金您一周中任何一天、任何時間的投資。這是一種保護方式，因為這正是金融科技公司正在做的事情，但奇怪的是你仍然沒有看到大部分銀行對此做出反應。但我認為會有變化。我們所做的事情可能會在某個時間點被其他人復制。

Thank you. We have a question in the Q&A box from (inaudible). First, it says which will be the turnover tax change. I'm sorry, in third Q '23, considering you are not paying any more and what can we expect for the second half '23 in severance payments and early retirement challenges?

謝謝。我們在問答框中提出了一個問題（聽不清）。首先，它說明了流轉稅的變化。抱歉，在 23 年第三季度，考慮到您不再支付任何費用，我們對 23 年下半年遣散費和提前退休挑戰有何期望？

Mariano, do you want to answer those questions?

馬里亞諾，你想回答這些問題嗎？

Thank you for the question, (inaudible). Let me first take the part of the turnover tax. First, I would like to point out that it's not that we are not paying turnover taxes, we're not only paying only in regards to Leliqs and Central Bank instruments. As we explained during the presentation, these are monetary policy instruments from the Central Bank. So the Central Bank claim that they cannot be taxed or interfered with by local government. So that's why we stopped paying since April but we keep paying turnover tax on other taxable income, which is basically interest from loans, for instance.

謝謝你的提問（聽不清）。我先說流轉稅的部分。首先，我想指出的是，我們並不是不繳納流轉稅，而是我們不僅僅只繳納 Leliqs 和央行工具的稅。正如我們在演示中所解釋的，這些是中央銀行的貨幣政策工具。因此中央銀行聲稱地方政府不能對它們徵稅或乾預。這就是為什麼我們從四月份開始就停止繳納，但我們繼續繳納其他應稅收入的流轉稅，例如基本上是貸款利息。

Remember that treasury bonds are not taxed. So we based on the interest earned on the loan portfolio and of course, on commissions and other sources of revenues. So the tax revenue charge for the third quarter would be in line with the second quarter where we had already stopped paying on Leliqs. But as interest rates increase our revenues also increase. Remember for this tax, you don't net the inflation charge, you are only paying for the revenues, even if interest rates are more positive or negative in real terms. You are paying only on the revenue side. So with higher interest rates, we will probably increase the charge of the turnover tax, so for the second quarter, the turnover tax charge was [ARS 5.1 billion]. So we would expect a bit more -- slightly higher in the third quarter.

請記住，國債不徵稅。因此，我們基於貸款組合賺取的利息，當然還有佣金和其他收入來源。因此，第三季度的稅收費用將與我們已經停止支付 Leliqs 的第二季度保持一致。但隨著利率的增加，我們的收入也會增加。請記住，對於這項稅收，您不會扣除通貨膨脹費用，您只需支付收入，即使實際利率更正或更負。您只需在收入方面付費。因此，隨著利率上升，我們可能會增加流轉稅的徵收，因此第二季度的流轉稅為[51億阿根廷比索]。因此，我們預計第三季度會略有上升。

And regarding severance payments on an early retirement charges, we decreased these charges in the first half of the year. But as we continue to find sources of efficiencies, we will probably increase a bit during the second half of the year because we give -- through the merger of branches and all the capabilities developed through digital processes that allow us to work more efficiently, even with more customers, we can reduce our headcount. Of course, not at the level as last year where we reduced 20% the group's headcount because we are merging with the bank, but we still continue at a rate that I would say, around 5% per year. That's our target. So you would see some increase in severance costs for the second half.

關於提前退休費用的遣散費，我們在上半年減少了這些費用。但隨著我們繼續尋找效率來源，我們可能會在今年下半年有所增加，因為我們通過合併分支機構以及通過數字化流程開發的所有功能，使我們能夠更高效地工作，甚至客戶越多，我們就可以減少員工數量。當然，不像去年那樣，因為我們正在與銀行合併，我們削減了集團員工人數 20%，但我們仍然保持著每年 5% 左右的速度。這就是我們的目標。因此，您會看到下半年遣散費有所增加。

So this was the last question. We have reached to the end of today's Q&A session. Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in our company. We look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter. In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions that you may have. Have a good day.

這是最後一個問題。今天的問答環節已經結束。感謝您今天加入我們。我們感謝您對我們公司的興趣。我們期待在未來幾個月內與更多的人見面，並提供下季度的財務和業務最新信息。在此期間，我們仍然可以回答您可能提出的任何問題。祝你有美好的一天。