Suncor Energy Inc (SU) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Suncor Energy Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加森科能源 2023 年第三季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your host, Mr. Troy Little, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給東道主投資者關係副總裁 Troy Little 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Welcome to Suncor Energy's third quarter earnings call. Please note that today's comments contain forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially from the expected results because of various risk factors and assumptions that are described in our third quarter earnings release, as well as in our current Annual Information Form, both of which are available on SEDAR, EDGAR and our website, suncor.com.

謝謝您，接線員，早安。歡迎參加森科能源第三季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的評論包含前瞻性資訊。由於我們第三季收益發布以及我們目前的年度資訊表中所述的各種風險因素和假設，實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異，這兩種資訊均可在SEDAR、EDGAR 和我們的網站suncor 上取得.com。

Certain financial measures referred to in these comments are not prescribed by Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. For a description of these financial measures, please see our third quarter earnings release. We will start with comments from Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Kris Smith, Suncor's Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call are 3 of our senior operating leaders, Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands; Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream; and Shelley Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement & Support Services. Following the formal remarks, we'll open up the call to questions.

這些評論中提到的某些財務措施並未受到加拿大公認會計原則的規定。有關這些財務指標的說明，請參閱我們的第三季財報發布。我們將從總裁兼執行長 Rich Kruger 的評論開始；其次是 Suncor 財務長 Kris Smith。參加電話會議的還有我們的 3 位高階營運領導者：Peter Zebedee，油砂執行副總裁； Dave Oldreive，下游執行副總裁；以及營運改善和支援服務資深副總裁 Shelley Powell。在正式發言之後，我們將開始提問。

Now, I'll hand it over to Rich to share his comments.

現在，我將把它交給里奇來分享他的評論。

Thanks, Troy. Third quarter characterize it as strong results across our business safety, upstream, downstream, turnarounds in particular, Fort Hills acquisition and some organizational improvements I'll comment on.

謝謝，特洛伊。第三季將其描述為我們的業務安全、上游、下游、週轉，特別是福特山收購和我將評論的一些組織改進的強勁業績。

Let me start with safety, core value, #1 priority, safety of our people, employees, and contractors alike. Recognizing that safety is a never ending journey, I'm pleased with and proud of our team. Year-on-year, recordable injuries are down 10%, lost time incidents are down 33% and, most importantly, we've had 0 life threatening or life altering injuries in 2023. We've had improvement in each and every business segment.

讓我從安全、核心價值、第一要務、我們員工、員工和承包商的安全開始。認識到安全是一個永無止境的旅程，我對我們的團隊感到高興和自豪。與去年同期相比，可記錄傷害下降了10%，誤工事件下降了33%，最重要的是，到2023 年，我們的威脅生命或改變生命的傷害為零。我們在每個業務領域都取得了進步。

And that said, I'd like to call out our downstream. Our downstream had 0 recordable injuries in the third quarter, 0, the first quarter injury-free in our company's history. It is a very focused effort involving leadership, training, procedures, workforce engagement and technology, a few highlights on the leadership and training front, implementing human and organizational performance leadership training, which is fundamentally about a culture change.

也就是說，我想呼籲我們的下游。我們下游第三季可記錄工傷為0，0，是我們公司史上第一季無工傷。這是一項非常集中的工作，涉及領導力、培訓、程序、員工參與度和技術，領導力和培訓方面的一些亮點，以及實施人員和組織績效領導力培訓，這從根本上講是關於文化變革的。

We are on target for all Suncor leaders to be trained on HOP by year end 2023, combat on procedures in mining in the third quarter. We completed 4,000 critical control verifications. It's a big number. The important number is it's 20% higher than the second quarter. And so, the significance of that is that we are engaging our workforce to focus and safely execute our higher risk activities.

我們的目標是在 2023 年底前讓所有 Suncor 領導者接受 HOP 培訓，並在第三季度針對採礦程序進行培訓。我們完成了 4,000 項關鍵控制驗證。這是一個很大的數字。重要的數字是比第二季度增加了 20%。因此，其意義在於，我們讓我們的員工集中精力並安全地執行我們的高風險活動。

In technology, I'll just comment once again on in mining, where we are installing and employing collision awareness and fatigue management systems. We now have collision awareness equipment installed on over 1,000 pieces of mobile equipment.

在技​​術方面，我將再次評論採礦業，我們正在安裝和使用碰撞感知和疲勞管理系統。目前，我們在 1,000 多台行動裝置上安裝了碰撞感知裝置。

I'll continue with Fort Hills. On October 3rd, we announced a revised deal to acquire Total Canada for $1.468 billion. This is an improved deal versus the original deal. Specifically, we no longer have a contingent payment provision in the acquisition. Similar headline valuation to the earlier Teck deal, but we've got additional benefits. Commercial patience and persistence were key here, and we're pleased with the deal. We're on track to close the transaction later this month.

我將繼續Fort Hills。 10 月 3 日，我們宣布了一項修改後的交易，以 14.68 億美元收購道達爾加拿大。與原始交易相比，這是一項改進的交易。具體來說，我們在收購中不再有或有付款條款。整體估值與先前的 Teck 交易類似，但我們也獲得了額外的好處。商業上的耐心和堅持是關鍵，我們對這筆交易感到滿意。我們預計在本月晚些時候完成交易。

It addresses long-term bitumen supply uncertainty associated with our upgraders, fills our upgraders for the long-term, but also enables additional value creation, value creation through regional synergies, with mobile equipment deployment, value creation through directing higher yield PFT from Fort Hills to our upgraders, a number of incentives and, as I said, we're quite pleased with the deal.

它解決了與我們的升級設備相關的長期瀝青供應不確定性，滿足了我們的升級設備的長期需求，而且還能夠創造額外的價值，透過區域協同效應創造價值，透過行動裝置部署，透過從福特山指導更高產量的PFT 創造價值對於我們的升級者，我們提供了許多激勵措施，正如我所說，我們對這筆交易非常滿意。

Continuing with Fort Hills from an operational perspective, we executed our first 5-year full plant turnaround during the third quarter safely, on budget, and on schedule. Production will bang on expectations as per our 3-year improvement plan. We're continuing to progress mining through the center pit. We're starting North Pit opening cuts. And of note is success on past lessons learned, 0 water, our 0 issues with water seeps, our slope instability, and now with 100% ownership and full control, we will be striving, driving for further and faster improvements. On the second quarter call, I highlighted several areas that were considered high priority for improvement, specifically turnaround performance, mining fleet management, and above-field cost.

繼續從營運角度來看 Fort Hills，我們在第三季度安全、按預算、按計劃地執行了我們的第一個 5 年整廠檢修。根據我們的三年改進計劃，生產將達到預期。我們正在繼續透過中心坑進行採礦。我們正在開始北坑開挖。值得注意的是，我們吸取了過去的經驗教訓，零水，零滲水問題，斜坡不穩定，現在擁有 100% 所有權和完全控制權，我們將努力推動進一步更快的改進。在第二季的電話會議上，我強調了幾個被認為需要優先改進的領域，特別是周轉績效、採礦車隊管理和現場成本。

Let me start with turnaround performance. As a reminder, we complete large annual turnarounds at most all of our upstream and downstream sites and spend on the order of $1.3 billion per year or about 20% of our CapEx on turnarounds. I've shared before that we benchmark using Solomon and other sources as below average in performance, cost schedule, volumetric impact. So, to describe our efforts as an intensified focus, I can assure you that would be an understatement.

讓我從扭虧為盈的表現開始。提醒一下，我們幾乎所有上游和下游工廠都完成了大規模的年度週轉，每年在周轉方面的支出約為 13 億美元，約占我們資本支出的 20%。我之前曾分享過，我們使用所羅門和其他來源進行的基準測試在性能、成本計劃、體積影響方面低於平均水平。因此，如果將我們的努力描述為強化關注，我可以向您保證，這是一種輕描淡寫的說法。

So how do we do in the third quarter? We'll base plant the U2 upgrader, or U2, massive turnaround, nearly 1 million hours, $500-plus million, 55 days. We completed it last week as per plan.I mentioned Fort Hills, the first full plant turnaround, $60 million, 25 days, completed in the third quarter, again, as per plan. Syncrude, we had a large turnaround in the second quarter that was completed per plan, and we had a smaller third quarter turnaround completed early and under budget.

那麼第三季我們的表現如何呢？我們將在基地安裝 U2 升級機，或 U2，大規模週轉，近 100 萬個小時，5 億美元以上，55 天。我們上週按計劃完成了它。我提到了 Fort Hills，這是第一個全面的工廠週轉，耗資 6000 萬美元，歷時 25 天，在第三季度完成，再次按計劃完成。 Syncrude，我們在第二季度按計劃完成了一次大的周轉，而我們在第三季度提前完成了較小的周轉，並且低於預算。

Montreal and Edmonton refineries, we had events that overlapped between the third and the start of the first quarter. Smaller in scope, also completed successfully. My message in all this is, we have more work to do, certainly to become best-in-class. But first, we need to improve our performance relative to our internal cost and schedule commitments. And as we drive further and we look at our second and third quarter performance, I would say we're on track here. Ultimately, our vision is that turnaround performance should be a differentiating core competency for the company.

蒙特婁和埃德蒙頓煉油廠，我們在第三季和第一季初之間發生了重疊的事件。範圍較小，也順利完成。我想說的是，我們還有更多的工作要做，當然要成為一流的。但首先，我們需要提高相對於內部成本和進度承諾的績效。當我們進一步推動並審視第二季和第三季的業績時，我想說我們已經步入正軌。最終，我們的願景是扭虧為盈應該成為公司差異化的核心能力。

Let me move on to mining fleet performance for context. The cost of physically moving ore from the face of a mine to a crusher for the start of extraction, that's our single highest cost component in the production of bitumen. Today, we move about 1.3 billion tons of earth per year to support production, and we've got a competitive cost gap versus best-in-class, comprehensive efforts to lower our cost per ton. The winning formula, fewer trucks, bigger trucks, more efficient trucks, and, of course, companion or compatible shovels, that's our mining improvement strategy in a nutshell.

讓我繼續討論採礦隊的表現以了解背景。將礦石從礦面物理移動到破碎機以開始開採的成本，這是我們瀝青生產中成本最高的組成部分。如今，我們每年搬運約 13 億噸土方來支持生產，與同類最佳的降低每噸成本的綜合努力相比，我們的成本差距具有競爭力。簡而言之，制勝之道是更少的卡車、更大的卡車、更有效率的卡車，當然還有配套或相容的鏟車，這就是我們的採礦改進策略。

So, this year and throughout 2024, we will add via a combination of purchase and lease 55 ultra-class 400-ton trucks to our total fleet, displacing nearly twice as many smaller third-party, less efficient, higher cost vehicles. Each truck will be pre-equipped for ultimate driverless or autonomous operation. The cost for these acquisitions and leases are in our guidance for this year, as well as our guidance that we'll issue shortly for 2024. Once in place, this action alone is expected to lower our overall corporate breakeven by $1 a barrel.

因此，今年和整個2024 年，我們將透過購買和租賃相結合的方式，在我們的車隊總數中增加55 輛超級400 噸卡車，取代近兩倍的小型第三方、效率較低、成本較高的車輛。每輛卡車都將預先配備最終的無人駕駛或自主操作。這些收購和租賃的成本已包含在我們今年的指導中，以及我們即將發布的 2024 年指導中。一旦實施，僅此一項行動預計就會使我們的整體公司盈虧平衡點降低 1 美元/桶。

In addition, in the third quarter, we executed a new long-term strategic agreement with Finning, our Caterpillar equipment provider, to deliver value through a win-win framework associated with equipment and parts acquisition, maintenance practices, and fleet reliability. We're also working with our equally important strategic partner, SMS Equipment Komatsu, on improvements, including finalizing the purchase of the world's largest hydraulic shovel in production today, the PC9000 series for mid-2024 delivery at Fort Hills.

此外，在第三季度，我們與我們的卡特彼勒設​​備供應商 Finning 簽署了一項新的長期策略協議，透過與設備和零件採購、維護實踐和車隊可靠性相關的雙贏框架來創造價值。我們也與同樣重要的策略合作夥伴 SMS Equipment Komatsu 合作進行改進，包括最終確定購買目前正在生產的世界上最大的液壓挖掘機 PC9000 系列，並於 2024 年中期在 Fort Hills 交付。

Lastly, in mining, I'll comment on autonomous operations. Today, we have 31 trucks operating at base plant autonomously. By second quarter 2024, it will be 45, and by year end '24, it will be 91. If our data is correct, this will be the largest single mine fleet of autonomous ultra-class trucks globally. Stay tuned for more.

最後，在採礦方面，我將評論自主運作。如今，我們有 31 輛卡車在基地工廠自主運作。到 2024 年第二季度，這一數字將達到 45 輛，到 2024 年年底，這一數字將達到 91 輛。如果我們的數據正確，這將是全球最大的單一礦用自動駕駛超級卡車車隊。請繼續關注更多內容。

Our plans for materially improving mining costs and competitiveness is tangible, focused on safety, lead efficiency, fleet composition, and overall reliability. Let me continue with above-field costs and organizational effectiveness. During our second quarter call, we discussed plans to reduce above-field costs by $400 million a year via workforce reduction of 1,500 people to be completed by year end 2023. And if you recall, in the second quarter, we took a onetime charge of $275 million. Our approach was 100% internal. No consultants advisors focused on limiting low value or unaffordable work.

我們實質改善採礦成本和競爭力的計畫是切實可行的，重點是安全性、領先效率、車隊組成和整體可靠性。讓我繼續討論現場成本和組織效率。在第二季度的電話會議上，我們討論了在 2023 年底前減少 1,500 名員工來減少現場成本每年 4 億美元的計劃。如果您還記得，在第二季度，我們一次性收取了2.75 億美元。我們的方法是 100% 內部的。沒有顧問顧問會專注於限制低價值或負擔不起的工作。

Today, I can share that this effort has been completed 2 months ahead of schedule. Annual cost reductions starting in 2024 of $450 million will be achieved 12% or $50 million above target, in part due to additional reductions of contingent workers or above-field contractors. The impact of this action equates to $1.20 per barrel reduction in our corporate breakeven.

今天，我可以告訴大家，這份工作已經提早兩個月完成。從 2024 年開始，每年成本削減 4.5 億美元，比目標高出 12%，即 5,000 萬美元，部分原因是臨時工或現場承包商的額外減少。這項行動的影響相當於我們公司損益平衡點每桶減少 1.20 美元。

As the process unfolded, it certainly hasn't been easy on our organization. Neither of those that left the company nor those that stayed. However difficult, we recognized it was necessary for our competitiveness. Now, we look ahead. Coupled with executive leadership team changes, other structural changes, we are a simpler, more focused organization positioned to compete and win, and that's exactly what we intend to do.

隨著這個過程的展開，這對我們的組織來說當然並不容易。無論是離開公司的人還是留下來的人。無論多麼困難，我們都認識到這對我們的競爭力是必要的。現在，我們展望未來。加上執行領導團隊的變化和其他結構性變化，我們成為一個更簡單、更專注的組織，定位於競爭和獲勝，而這正是我們打算做的。

Guidance. During our second quarter call, I mentioned that although tracking at or near the bottom end of guidance, we were focused on meeting our targets and delivering on commitments. I also said that given the material fall turnarounds -- impact fall turnarounds have, it made sense to update, if necessary, each year after the majority of our major maintenance work was complete. With that work now behind us and executed well, we are maintaining our guidance unchanged with full year upstream production tracking at or near the 740,000 barrel a day level.

指導。在我們第二季的電話會議中，我提到，儘管處於或接近指導的底部，但我們專注於實現我們的目標並兌現承諾。我還說過，考慮到重大的秋季週轉——秋季週轉的影響，如有必要，每年在我們的大部分主要維護工作完成後進行更新是有意義的。隨著這項工作現已完成並執行得很好，我們將維持指導不變，全年上游產量追蹤在或接近每天 740,000 桶的水平。

Final comments before I turn it over to Kris. I suspect you've noticed a few references today in terms of per barrel. This reflects a new and evolving vocabulary within the company, thinking about and communicating the impact of our actions, plans, and improvements in unit per barrel terms. In addition, a subset of us similarly talk about the impact in per share terms. Our vocabulary is part of creating clarity and focus, developing a results-oriented, high-performance culture.

在我把它交給克里斯之前最後的評論。我懷疑您今天已經注意到一些關於每桶的參考資料。這反映了公司內部不斷變化的新詞彙，以每桶單位的形式思考和傳達我們的行動、計劃和改進的影響。此外，我們中的一部分人也同樣談論了每股的影響。我們的詞彙是創造清晰度和重點、發展以結果為導向的高績效文化的一部分。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kris.

有了這個，我會把它交給克里斯。

Great. Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. To start with, I'd like to make a few comments on the business environment that was on the third quarter. It was a very constructive one with both crude prices and refining crack strengthening versus Q2 on the back of healthy supply-demand fundamentals. We saw WTI average at about $82 a barrel in the quarter, and the light-heavy differential narrowed versus Q2 averaging about $13 a barrel. As well, we continue to see synthetic crude oil trade at a premium of about $3 a barrel to WTI.

偉大的。謝謝里奇，大家早安。首先，我想對第三季的經營環境發表一些評論。這是一個非常有建設性的時期，在健康的供需基本面的支持下，原油價格和煉油裂解均較第二季走強。我們看到本季 WTI 均價約為每桶 82 美元，輕重價差較第二季平均每桶 13 美元左右收窄。同樣，我們繼續看到合成原油的交易價格比 WTI 每桶溢價約 3 美元。

On the refining side, while we saw weakening gasoline cracks in the back half of the quarter, it was a good quarter for refining margins, and particularly for distillate cracks, and our 5221 refining index was $2 a barrel stronger than Q2. Finally, natural gas, which is a key input cost to our operations, remained low, with AECO averaging $2.50 a GJ in the quarter, while Alberta power prices remained robust.

在煉油方面，雖然我們看到本季後半段汽油裂解量減弱，但對於煉油利潤來說，這是一個很好的季度，尤其是餾分油裂解液，我們的5221 煉油指數比第二季每桶強2 美元。最後，作為我們營運的關鍵投入成本的天然氣仍然處於較低水平，本季 AECO 平均每吉焦 2.50 美元，而艾伯塔省電價依然強勁。

Now, with respect to our financial performance, with this constructive business environment and (inaudible), Suncor delivered a strong financial quarter, delivering $3.6 billion in adjusted funds from operations, or $2.80 per share, and adjusted operating earnings of $2 billion, or $1.52 a share. During the quarter, we also returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases. And since the beginning of the year, we've bought back over 3% of our common shares outstanding as at December 31, 2022. Also during the quarter, we reduced our net debt by $1.4 billion, with net debt at $13 billion as at the end of the quarter.

現在，就我們的財務表現而言，憑藉這種建設性的商業環境和（聽不清楚），Suncor 實現了強勁的財務季度，調整後的營運資金達36 億美元，即每股2.80 美元，調整後的營運收益為20 億美元，即1.52 美元一份。本季度，我們也透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了近 10 億美元。自今年年初以來，我們回購了截至2022 年12 月31 日已發行普通股的3% 以上。此外，在本季度，我們的淨債務減少了14 億美元，截至2022 年12 月31 日的淨債務為130 億美元。季末。

Turning now to operations. We saw solid operations in both our upstream and downstream segments. Our upstream delivered 691,000 barrels per day of total production in the quarter. Oil Sands had strong operations, with 646,000 barrels a day of production, and delivering $2.9 billion of adjusted funds from operations, with average price realizations of CAD 106 a barrel, or 97% of WTI.

現在轉向營運。我們的上游和下游業務均穩健營運。我們的上游在本季的總產量中每天交付 691,000 桶。油砂業務營運強勁，日產量為 646,000 桶，營運調整後資金達 29 億美元，平均實現價格為每桶 106 加元，相當於 WTI 的 97%。

Now, Rich has already talked about the very good turnaround performance in the quarter, so I'm not going to repeat that, but I would like to highlight a few things. Outside of planned maintenance activities in the quarter, our upgraders operated at over 100% utilization. And we continued to see strong in-situ production, including 99% utilization at Firebag. As Rich mentioned, the Fort Hills asset came out of its 5-year full plant turnaround, with strong operations, and delivered as expected, with high asset utilization.

現在，里奇已經談到了本季度非常好的扭虧為盈的表現，所以我不會重複這一點，但我想強調一些事情。除了本季規劃的維護活動之外，我們的升級設備的利用率超過 100%。我們繼續看到強勁的現場生產，其中 Firebag 的利用率達到 99%。正如 Rich 所提到的，福特山資產完成了 5 年的全面工廠週轉，營運強勁，按預期交付，資產利用率高。

Our E&P business segment generated $372 million in AFFO in the quarter, with production of 44,000 barrels per day, and average price realizations of CAD 121 a barrel, or 104% of Brent. The Terra Nova FPSO completed its life extension work in the quarter, and has now returned to station, where it has commissioning and startup activities well underway, and we expect it to begin production later in Q4, ramping up for the remainder of the year, and into 2024.

我們的勘探與生產業務部門本季產生了 3.72 億美元的 AFFO，產量為每天 44,000 桶，平均實現價格為每桶 121 加元，即布蘭特原油的 104%。 Terra Nova FPSO 在本季度完成了其壽命延長工作，現已返回站點，調試和啟動活動正在進行中，我們預計它將在第四季度晚些時候開始生產，並在今年剩餘時間內提高產量，並進入2024 年。

As for our downstream segment, it had its strongest financial quarter of the year so far, generating $1.5 billion in adjusted funds from operations on a FIFO basis. We saw very strong performance across the entire refining network, with average refinery utilization rates of 99% post the Q2 turnaround season. And while retail and branded wholesale sales were impacted by the cyber incident earlier in the quarter, overall refined product sales were solid at 574,000 barrels per day, and we saw margin capture averaging 88%, similar to the same quarter last year.

至於我們的下游部門，它經歷了今年迄今為止最強勁的財務季度，按照先進先出原則從營運中產生了 15 億美元的調整後資金。我們看到整個煉油廠網絡表現非常強勁，第二季週轉季後煉油廠平均使用率達到 99%。儘管零售和品牌批發銷售受到本季早些時候網路事件的影響，但成品油整體銷量穩定在每天 574,000 桶，我們看到平均利潤率為 88%，與去年同期相似。

With respect to overall costs, despite inflationary pressures this year, we continue to see progress on reducing costs, and along with the benefit of low natural gas prices, are trending toward the bottom end of our oil sands cash cost per barrel guidance ranges for the year.

就整體成本而言，儘管今年存在通膨壓力，但我們在降低成本方面繼續取得進展，再加上天然氣價格低廉的好處，油砂每桶現金成本指導範圍的下端正在趨於下降。年。

As for CapEx, it was $1.5 billion in the quarter, with spend primarily focused on planned turnaround and maintenance activities, and mine entailings development, including the Mildred Lake West mine extension project at Syncrude. As well, we are completing the Terra Nova asset life extension project that I mentioned earlier, while also beginning investments on West White Rose. And despite inflationary pressures this year, and the extension of the Terra Nova work, and the unplanned repairs which we had at Commerce City earlier this year, we expect to remain within our capital guidance range, and though we will be towards the top end.

至於資本支出，本季為 15 億美元，支出主要集中在計劃週轉和維護活動以及礦山開發，包括 Syncrude 的 Mildred Lake West 礦山擴建項目。此外，我們正在完成我之前提到的 Terra Nova 資產壽命延長項目，同時也開始對 West White Rose 進行投資。儘管今年存在通膨壓力、Terra Nova 工程的延長以及今年早些時候我們在商業城進行的計劃外維修，但我們預計仍將保持在資本指導範圍內，儘管我們將接近上限。

Now, as mentioned, our net debt was $13 billion at the end of the quarter. With the anticipated close of the Total Energy's Canada acquisition, which Rich spoke about earlier in his comments, we expect our net debt to end the year between $13.5 billion and $14 billion, depending on commodity prices. As mentioned, we've delivered nearly $1 billion in shareholder returns in this quarter. We remain committed to our capital allocation framework, delivering value to our shareholders through competitive dividends and share buybacks while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

現在，如前所述，截至本季末，我們的淨債務為 130 億美元。隨著 Total Energy 加拿大收購的預計完成（Rich 在其早些時候的評論中談到），我們​​預計我們的淨債務將在年底達到 135 億美元至 140 億美元之間，具體取決於大宗商品價格。如前所述，我們在本季實現了近 10 億美元的股東回報。我們仍然致力於我們的資本配置框架，透過有競爭力的股利和股票回購為股東創造價值，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。

Now, before handing it back to Troy, I just want to make a few comments on Suncor's progress on our decarbonization plans and the Oil Sands Pathways Alliance to Net Zero. We remain focused on delivering against our 2030 emission reduction goals and our longer-term objective of Net Zero by 2050. A prime example of that is the progress we're making on our base plant cogeneration project, which is on track to be complete in late 2024. When operational, that project will reduce our direct GHG emissions by about 1 megaton a year, while also providing lower emissions intensity power to the Alberta grid.

現在，在將其交還給特洛伊之前，我只想對森科爾在脫碳計劃和油砂淨零途徑聯盟方面的進展發表一些評論。我們仍然專注於實現 2030 年減排目標和到 2050 年實現淨零排放的長期目標。一個典型的例子就是我們在基地工廠熱電聯產項目上取得的進展，該項目預計將於 2020 年完成。2024 年末。該計畫投入營運後，每年將減少我們約1 兆噸的直接溫室氣體排放，同時也為艾伯塔省電網提供排放強度較低的電力。

A key part of our decarbonization plan is our work with our industry partners in the Pathways Alliance to Net Zero, which is advancing an industry-leading carbon capture and sequestration project. As we continue to advance early engineering work on the project, we're working closely with both the Canadian federal and Alberta provincial governments to get the necessary fiscal and regulatory frameworks in place to support it. And we look forward to being in a position to advance the next phase of the project in 2024, which would include ordering materials for the carbon pipeline.

我們脫碳計畫的關鍵部分是我們與「淨零之路聯盟」的產業合作夥伴合作，該聯盟正在推進業界領先的碳捕獲和封存計畫。在我們繼續推進該項目的早期工程工作的同時，我們正在與加拿大聯邦政府和艾伯塔省政府密切合作，以建立必要的財政和監管框架來支持該項目。我們期待能夠在 2024 年推進該專案的下一階段，其中包括為碳管道訂購材料。

And with that, I will now turn it back over to you, Troy.

現在，我將把它交還給你，特洛伊。

Thank you, Kris. I'll turn the call back to the operator to take some questions.

謝謝你，克里斯。我會將電話轉回接線生以回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Greg Pardy。

Rich, what inning of the turnaround do you think Suncor is in at this juncture? And then, what are some of the next steps you're going to be taking in the next, I don't know, 6, 12, 18 months?

Rich，您認為 Suncor 目前正處於轉型的哪一階段？然後，我不知道接下來的 6、12、18 個月內您將採取哪些後續步驟？

Greg, I think we've got the right team. We've got the right leadership. We know this game. I think we're (inaudible) -- we're in the first half of the game.

格雷格，我認為我們有合適的團隊。我們有正確的領導。我們知道這個遊戲。我認為我們（聽不清楚）——我們正處於比賽的上半場。

(inaudible) sorry about that.

（聽不清楚）對此感到抱歉。

We got a lot more work to do, Greg, but I feel really good. When you talk about the things I've reiterated in terms of safety, integrity, reliability and profitability, I feel very, very good on that. We've got more to do, but I think we have a business plan that we'll be talking about in the not-too-distant future that has continuous improvement about it. And as I sit here 7 months in, I feel better than I did in the first month.

我們還有很多工作要做，格雷格，但我感覺很好。當你談到我在安全性、完整性、可靠性和盈利能力方面重申的事情時，我對此感覺非常非常好。我們還有更多工作要做，但我認為我們有一個商業計劃，我們將在不久的將來討論該計劃，並對其進行不斷改進。當我坐在這裡 7 個月後，我感覺比第一個月好多了。

Okay. I'm going to completely shift gears maybe and ask Peter another question, but as it relates to Fort Hills, then could you give us an update on just how that mine remediation plan is unfolding? Are you seeing the things you want to see right now and so on, and what can we expect?

好的。也許我要徹底改變立場，問彼得另一個問題，但由於它與福特山有關，那麼您能否向我們介紹一下礦山修復計劃的最新進展情況？現在您看到的是您想看到的東西嗎？我們可以期待什麼？

Yes, I will turn it over to Peter. We were talking about this yesterday. Go ahead, Peter.

是的，我會把它交給彼得。我們昨天正在談論這個。繼續吧，彼得。

Yes, actually, we're really pleased with the performance at Fort Hills year-to-date. As Rich stated in his comments, some of the risks that have manifested themselves in earlier years around water seeps and pit wall stability, our risk mitigation activities have been entirely successful. We haven't seen any of that show up in our operations so far year-to-date, so I'm really pleased about that.

是的，實際上，我們對今年迄今在福特山的表現非常滿意。正如里奇在他的評論中所說，早年出現的一些圍繞滲水和坑壁穩定性的風險，我們的風險緩解活動完全成功。今年迄今為止，我們還沒有看到任何這樣的情況出現在我們的營運中，所以我對此感到非常高興。

We've been able to reestablish healthy mine inventories. And so far year-to-date, we're bang on our production plan and expectations, in addition to executing the first 5-year turnaround on time and on budget, so really happy with that. Just a reminder, though, we're in the first year of our 3-year plan to reset the Fort Hills operation. The first couple of years do entail higher costs and lower production, but we're ultimately driving to those higher run rates down the road. So, I think, to sum it all up, I'm really happy with Fort Hills, but we still got some work ahead of us to go to where we want it to be.

我們已經能夠重建健康的礦場庫存。今年到目前為止，我們的生產計劃和期望都得到了很好的實現，除了按時按預算執行第一個 5 年周轉之外，我們對此感到非常滿意。不過，請注意，我們正處於重置福特山行動的三年計畫的第一年。最初幾年確實會帶來更高的成本和更低的產量，但我們最終會在未來實現更高的運行率。所以，我認為，總而言之，我對福特山非常滿意，但我們仍然有一些工作要做，才能達到我們想要的目標。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Dennis Fong with CIBC.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自 CIBC 的 Dennis Fong。

My first one probably follows along that second question from Greg. So, as you're about to close the Fort Hills consolidation later this month, can you maybe highlight or even provide some examples of how owning the entire asset both improves logistics within the facility and the asset base, as well as more broadly with respect to your oil sands operations?

我的第一個問題可能是沿著格雷格的第二個問題提出的。因此，當您即將在本月稍後結束福特山整合時，您能否強調甚至提供一些例子，說明擁有整個資產如何改善設施和資產基礎內的物流，以及更廣泛的尊重您的油砂業務？

Sure. I'll make a couple of comments, and then if Peter wants to add on to it. I think, 1 of the things, we now have such a concentration of assets in the mining world, things that sound fairly simple, but like fleet deployment. We have a higher percentage of smaller leased trucks at Fort Hills, and I described in my comments kind of the strategy of fewer bigger. So our ability to optimize things as simple as where heavy equipment goes is an opportunity for improvement.

當然。我會發表一些評論，然後如果彼得想補充的話。我認為，其中一件事，我們現在在採礦界擁有如此集中的資產，這聽起來相當簡單，但就像車隊部署一樣。我們在福特山擁有較高比例的小型租賃卡車，我在評論中描述了一種減少大型卡車的策略。因此，我們優化事物的能力就像重型設備的去向一樣簡單，這是一個改進的機會。

The ability to make decisions faster and more effectively, diverting Fort Hills to the upgraders to get the uplift that comes with a PFT on the processing. So I think it allows us to do things faster and think of it in more a holistic oil sands front.

能夠更快、更有效地做出決策，將 Fort Hills 轉移給升級者，以獲得 PFT 處理帶來的提升。因此，我認為它使我們能夠更快地開展工作，並從更全面的油砂前沿角度進行思考。

Peter, anything you'd add to that?

彼得，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think I'd just reinforce, Rich. I mean, if the production optimization opportunities are significant, I think you've seen us do that certainly over the last year, and our ability to keep those upgraders full and have really high utilization of those upgraders is really enabled by the interconnectivity of our bitumen-producing assets. And I think with 100% ownership of Fort Hills, that only enables that further. And we see quite a beneficial yield uplift through the upgraders as a result of running that PFT through them.

不，我想我只是加強一下，里奇。我的意思是，如果生產優化機會很重要，我想您在去年肯定已經看到我們這樣做了，並且我們使這些升級器保持滿負荷並具有真正高利用率的能力確實是通過我們的互連性實現的瀝青生產資產。我認為，有了 Fort Hills 100% 的所有權，這只會讓這一目標更進一步。我們看到，由於透過升級程序運行 PFT，其產量得到了相當有益的提升。

Great. I appreciate that color and context. My second question is, maybe shifting gears towards the downstream assets. With respect to Q3 results, you guys printed quite a strong downstream operating margin there. As we look forward through to the end of the year, can you remind us about, A, the flexibility that you have in terms of...

偉大的。我很欣賞這種顏色和背景。我的第二個問題是，也許會轉向下游資產。就第三季的業績而言，你們的下游營業利潤率相當強勁。當我們期待今年年底時，您能否提醒我們，A，您在…方面擁有的靈活性。

Dennis, on our end, it cut out. I don't know if you can hear us. You were ending with the flexibility we have, but then it went silent.

丹尼斯，我們這邊，一切都結束了。我不知道你是否聽得到我們的聲音。你以我們所擁有的靈活性結束，但隨後就陷入了沉默。

Yes, Dennis disconnected his line.

是的，丹尼斯斷開了他的線。

Okay. Operator, why don't you move to the next question, please?

好的。接線生，請您轉到下一個問題好嗎？

Our next question will come from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Yes. Maybe I'll try to build off of Dennis on refining. I'm just curious on the team's view of the setup here in the near-term for downstream operations. We've got this big bifurcation between distillate and gasoline. Are you guys able to run and capture the stronger diesel margins? And then, as it relates to WCS, what do you think is going on there? And what are you hearing on TMX? And in the meantime, are you able to keep the business relatively neutral from a sensitivity standpoint?

是的。也許我會嘗試在丹尼斯的基礎上進行精煉。我只是好奇團隊對近期下游業務設定的看法。我們在餾分油和汽油之間存在著巨大的分歧。你們能夠贏得更大的柴油利潤嗎？然後，就 WCS 而言，您認為那裡發生了什麼？您在 TMX 上聽到了什麼？同時，從敏感度的角度來看，您能否保持業務相對中立？

Dave, why don't you take the downstream marketing standpoint, and then when we get to the WCS, I'll ask Kris to comment on that.

Dave，為什麼不採取下游行銷的立場，然後當我們到達 WCS 時，我會請 Kris 對此發表評論。

Yes, sounds good. In the downstream for Suncor, we're a little less exposed to G-to-D or to lower gasoline cracks than maybe our competition is. We've got a pretty low G-to-D across our refining network with high-cracking technology at all of our refineries. It really helps us swing our gasoline to distillate around. We've got about a 1-to-1 G-to-D, which is much lower than the competition. You add the production of diesel from the upgraders, and that takes it to about a 0.8, which is much lower than the competition. So we're significantly less exposed to lower gasoline cracks than many others.

是的，聽起來不錯。在 Suncor 的下游，與我們的競爭對手相比，我們受到 G-to-D 或較低汽油裂紋的影響要小一些。我們的煉油廠網路中的 G-to-D 值相當低，所有煉油廠均採用高裂解技術。它確實可以幫助我們將汽油蒸餾出來。我們的 G-D 比例約為 1 比 1，比競爭對手低得多。如果加上升級裝置的柴油產量，則其值約為 0.8，遠低於競爭對手。因此，與其他許多國家相比，我們受到較低汽油裂縫的影響要小得多。

That being said, we certainly have seen the gasoline market drop. We expect to continue to be able to run full through the fourth quarter, running crude to make high-value diesel and making sure the gasoline gets cleared. But we see a good strong fourth quarter ahead of us.

話雖這麼說，我們當然已經看到汽油市場下跌。我們預計第四季將繼續全力運轉，利用原油生產高價值柴油，並確保汽油得到清理。但我們看到第四季的表現強勁。

Great. Neil, on your question about WCS and TMX, I mean, obviously we've seen the WCS, that light-heavy start to widen out quite a bit. Here's when the Q4 and a lot of drivers behind that. Obviously, refinery turnarounds, production out of the basin, as well as we go in -- as you probably know, as you go into the winter season, just that diluent ratio has an impact on that light-heavy diff, so it's got some seasonality in it. But we do see when TMX comes on, it will obviously be constructive to narrowing that light-heavy diff.

偉大的。 Neil，關於你關於 WCS 和 TMX 的問題，我的意思是，顯然我們已經看到了 WCS，輕重開始擴大了很多。這是 Q4 和背後的眾多車手的時刻。顯然，煉油廠的周轉、盆地的生產以及我們的進入——正如您可能知道的那樣，當您進入冬季時，稀釋劑比例會對輕重差異產生影響，因此它有一些影響季節性在裡面。但我們確實看到，當 TMX 出現時，它顯然對縮小輕重差異有建設性作用。

And right now, every indication is that line is going to be in operation towards the end of Q2 or early -- or sorry, the end of Q1 or early Q2 of next year. They're really literally down to the last few kilometers of pipe, and they got the latest approval just to reroute. I think it was about 1.5 kilometers that they needed to deal with. So, they've made great progress on the project. It's 97% complete, so the finish line is in sight for us. We'd expect the call for line fill to be coming here in Q4, and that line fill will start in Q1 of next year. And as I said, I think it's going to be quite constructive. We would expect light-heavy diffs.

目前，所有跡像都表明該生產線將在第二季度末或年初投入運營，或者抱歉，明年第一季末或第二季度初投入運營。他們確實已經深入到最後幾公里的管道，並且他們獲得了最新的批准只是為了重新佈線。我認為他們需要處理的距離大約是1.5公里。因此，他們在該專案上取得了很大進展。目前已完成 97%，所以我們已經看到終點線了。我們預計線路填充的要求將在第四季度到來，線路填充將在明年第一季開始。正如我所說，我認為這將非常有建設性。我們預計會出現輕重差異。

There's always going to be some seasonality and some things which affect it, but TMX is going to, I think, put that light-heavy diff more towards the mid-teens as an average, and really it's going to be about less volatility in it.

總是會有一些季節性因素和一些影響它的因素，但我認為，TMX 會將輕重差異更多地集中在十幾歲左右的平均水平上，而且實際上它的波動性會更小。

Okay. That's great color. And the follow-up is on '24 CapEx. I think you gave us a lot of nuggets around it. But as we think about building to the '24 CapEx number, any early thoughts that you can provide, and how should trucks be a consideration in that estimate?

好的。那顏色真棒。後續行動是關於 '24 資本支出。我認為你給了我們很多關於它的啟發。但是，當我們考慮建立「24 年資本支出」數字時，您可以提供任何早期想法，以及在該估算中應如何考慮卡車？

Yes, I think we'll be coming out here shortly in the next few weeks, I guess it is, something like this, with our guidance, and Troy has been sharing with me kind of what folks' consensus is. And I would say that I don't think there'll be any surprise. It will be a bit bigger than this year as we bring about some of these structural improvements driven by particularly mining. And then, of course, the other component part of it is the incremental ownership that goes with Fort Hills. But I think if you kind of think about it in terms of where we are this year and add increments for those 2 things, it gets you right in the range of what you can expect.

是的，我想我們很快就會在接下來的幾週內來到這裡，我想是的，在我們的指導下，類似這樣的事情，特洛伊一直在與我分享人們的共識是什麼。我想說的是，我認為不會有任何驚喜。由於我們在採礦業的推動下進行了一些結構性改進，因此規模將比今年大一些。當然，它的另一個組成部分是與福特山相關的增量所有權。但我認為，如果你考慮我們今年的情況，並為這兩件事增加增量，它會讓你處於你可以期望的範圍內。

And the other thing I'd just comment on, the trucks itself, we're really looking at any incremental spend in terms of its payout period. And these trucks, the displacing 2 for 1 and all the efficiency go with it, they are a very rapid payout. They are independent of oil price, and there are things that we're quite confident that we give back quite quickly. So, any incremental, quite frankly any money, we're looking at it very, very closely in terms of bang for the buck and how quick it provides accretive or value added. But I think in a nutshell that's kind of what you can expect when you see 2024 guidance.

我剛剛評論的另一件事是卡車本身，我們確實在考慮支付期間的任何增量支出。這些卡車，2 合 1 的替代品以及所有的效率都隨之而來，它們的回報非常快。它們與油價無關，而且我們非常有信心很快就能回饋某些東西。因此，任何增量，坦白說任何資金，我們都非常非常密切地關注它的性價比以及它提供增值或增值的速度。但我認為簡而言之，當您看到 2024 年指導時，您可以期待這樣的情況。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自道格·萊格特 (Doug Leggate) 與美國銀行 (Bank of America) 的關係。

Rich, congratulations on the changes you're making, clearly having an impact. But obviously, you're not done yet, so my question is related to the $5 improvement. And I guess, you talked about $1.20 this morning. For the balance, how much do you put down to efficiency gains? What are the kind of gating items that we should be watching to have line of sight on the timeline to achieve that?

Rich，恭喜你所做的改變，顯然產生了影響。但顯然，你還沒有完成，所以我的問題與 5 美元的改進有關。我猜，你今天早上談到了 1.20 美元。為了平衡，您在效率提升上投入了多少？為了實現這一目標，我們應該專注於哪些類型的門控項目，以便在時間軸上保持視線？

I mentioned the buck and the above-field cost that has been captured as we go into it. I commented on another buck that Peter, as he gets bigger and fewer more efficient trucks is another buck. And literally the way we are talking here and looking at it is, Peter has a display or a spectrum of opportunities, and we look at timing, what it will cost, what it will deliver. Dave is developing the same thing in the downstream.

我提到了我們在研究過程中所捕獲的成本和現場成本。我評論說，彼得的另一筆錢，隨著他變得更大，更有效率的卡車越來越少，這是另一筆錢。從字面上看，我們在這裡談論和看待它的方式是，彼得有一個展示或一系列機會，我們會考慮時機，它將花費什麼，它將帶來什麼。 Dave 正在下游開發相同的東西。

And then beyond that, we're looking at corporate, whether that's further efficiencies. And we know to get, you referenced $5 as a kind of initial target. We know to get that. Our inventory list has to be much bigger than that because some things won't happen. They won't happen on the timeline. But I think how you're hearing us talk about the improvements in the dollar-per-barrel terms, kind of get used to that because that's the way we're going to be going for a while. And of course, that comes from cutting costs, spending less, sustaining capital, increasing volumes, increasing margins. There's a lot of levers to achieve that. But it's really, it's the way we're looking at almost all aspects of our business now.

除此之外，我們正在關注企業，是否可以進一步提高效率。我們知道，您提到 5 美元作為初始目標。我們知道要得到那個。我們的庫存清單必須比這個大得多，因為有些事情不會發生。它們不會在時間表上發生。但我認為，您聽到我們談論每桶美元價格的改進，已經習慣了，因為這就是我們一段時間內將採取的方式。當然，這來自於削減成本、減少支出、維持資本、增加銷售量、提高利潤。有很多手段可以實現這個目標。但這確實是我們現在看待業務幾乎所有方面的方式。

I appreciate that. And I don't want this to count as a second question, but perhaps you could give us some idea on your latest thoughts on when you will come to market with your strategy plan. That would be helpful for our diaries. My second question is actually on your guidance. Obviously, Fort Hills has not closed yet, but you left the full year unchanged. And it leaves you with quite a big ask for the fourth quarter to achieve the $740 million, $770 million range for oil sands, or for upstream rather. Can you give us an idea what the stair steps are to get there as you did not change the guidance for the year?

我很感激。我不希望這算是第二個問題，但也許您可以向我們提供一些有關您何時將戰略計劃推向市場的最新想法。這對我們的日記很有幫助。我的第二個問題實際上是關於您的指導。顯然，Fort Hills 尚未關閉，但您全年保持不變。這給你留下了相當大的要求，要求第四季實現油砂或上游領域 7.4 億美元、7.7 億美元的範圍。由於您沒有改變今年的指導方針，您能否告訴我們到達那裡的階梯是什麼？

Sure. And I've said, we're going to be at or around the low end of that range. So, the $770 million -- $760 million, $770 million, those numbers are not going to happen. But as we look at completing the third quarter, all the big works behind us, all the operations are up and running, no maintenance work planned. You commented on Total. Of course, we had Total in our original guidance. And with the Teck deal, we didn't get as much of it.

當然。我已經說過，我們將處於或接近該範圍的低端。所以，7.7 億美元──7.6 億美元、7.7 億美元，這些數字是不會發生的。但當我們展望第三季的完成時，所有大型工程都在我們身後，所有操作都已啟動並運行，沒有計劃進行維護工作。您對道達爾發表了評論。當然，我們最初的指導中有道達爾。而在泰克公司的交易中，我們並沒有得到那麼多。

Now, later this year, as we complete it, it will kind of come back. So there's a part of it with closing the deal that will be additive for the last quarter. And the rest of it is just -- it's running full out and running efficiently through the rest of the quarter. I do all the math. I know exactly what it takes literally, from not only the quarter, but from here on. And we continue to believe it's achievable. And that's exactly what we have everyone in the organization focused on.

現在，今年晚些時候，當我們完成它時，它會回來。因此，完成交易的一部分將在上個季度增加。剩下的部分就是——在本季度剩餘的時間裡，它正在全力以赴、高效運行。我做所有的數學。我確切地知道這意味著什麼，不僅從本季開始，而且從現在開始。我們仍然相信這是可以實現的。這正是我們組織中每個人所關注的重點。

Great stuff. I appreciate the answer, Rich. (inaudible) on the date of your strategy, David. I appreciate any update on that.

好東西。我很欣賞你的回答，里奇。 （聽不清楚）在你制定策略的日期，大衛。我很感激任何有關這方面的更新。

I'll just maybe comment on that quickly, Doug. We're looking at, right now, kind of when in the new year, we come out with an Investor Day, or whatever we want to call it, and get in a lot more granularity on the strategy. We're sharing, as we go along, kind of tidbits of it and the actions. But we'll -- as we get into the new year, we'll put it all out there in terms of exactly what we're trying to achieve and when.

道格，我可能會很快對此發表評論。我們現在正在考慮，在新的一年裡，我們會推出一個投資者日，或者無論我們如何稱呼它，並更詳細地了解該策略。隨著我們的進展，我們正在分享一些花絮和行動。但是，當我們進入新的一年時，我們將根據我們想要實現的目標以及何時實現這一目標，將所有內容列出來。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Menno Hulshof with TD.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自 Menno Hulshof 與 TD 的血統。

I'll start with a question on shareholder capital returns. It looks like you're tracking well ahead of your 50% target for the year. So, is it fair to assume Q4 could be more focused on debt reduction? Or with the pullback in oil and crack spreads and even your share price, is it possible that you get after the buyback more aggressively here and land above your target for the year?

我將從股東資本回報的問題開始。看來您遠遠超出了今年 50% 的目標。那麼，假設第四季可以更加關注債務削減是否公平？或者，隨著石油和裂解價差甚至股價的回落，您是否有可能更積極地進行回購，並高於今年的目標？

Kris, you want to comment on that?

克里斯，你想對此發表評論嗎？

You're right in that when you look at the shareholder returns and particularly the buybacks, we had quite large numbers in the early part of the year. We're managing towards that allocation target that we have out there at 50-50. That doesn't mean that we're going to dial back further on the buybacks that you've seen in the third quarter, but certainly we want to make sure that we're balancing against that capital allocation in the fourth quarter.

你是對的，當你看看股東回報，特別是回購時，我們在今年年初有相當大的數字。我們正在努力實現 50-50 的分配目標。這並不意味著我們將進一步減少第三季的回購規模，但我們當然希望確保我們在第四季的資本配置上保持平衡。

We are probably going to end the year probably a little more balanced towards share buybacks versus debt reduction. Quite frankly, it will probably be closer to 60-40 on an annual basis. But with the transaction in the quarter and the other drivers, we're looking to make sure that we're in the zone of that capital allocation as we're managing the balance sheet to the exit of the year. And then, we're going to continue with that capital allocation framework into 2024.

我們可能會在今年年底在股票回購和債務削減方面更加平衡。坦白說，每年可能會接近 60-40 個。但考慮到本季的交易和其他驅動因素，我們希望確保在管理資產負債表直至今年結束時處於資本配置範圍內。然後，我們將繼續採用該資本配置架構到 2024 年。

Perfect. And then, my follow-up is on the 20% contractor count reduction. Can you just confirm that 20% is still the right number longer term, or could we ultimately see something in excess of that? And with the understanding that this was only completed recently, I believe, what are the sort of positives and negatives that have come out of this in terms of impact to day-to-day execution?

完美的。然後，我的後續行動是減少 20% 的承包商數量。您能否確認 20% 從長遠來看仍然是正確的數字，或者我們最終會看到超過這個數字的數字嗎？鑑於這只是最近才完成的，我相信，就對日常執行的影響而言，這會帶來哪些正面和負面的影響？

Peter, you want to comment on that?

彼得，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. Yes, we did achieve that earlier this year. I continue to believe that there are more efficiencies in our contractor base across the breadth of our operations. I think we've taken kind of the first step where we've taken a lot of the waste out of the system so far, and now we're looking at more sophisticated examples of integrated planning and scheduling and kind of maintenance scheduling activity to drive further efficiencies.

是的。是的，我們今年早些時候確實實現了這一目標。我仍然相信，我們的承包商基礎在整個業務範圍內的效率更高。我認為我們已經邁出了第一步，到目前為止我們已經消除了系統中的大量浪費，現在我們正在研究更複雜的綜合規劃和調度以及維護調度活動的範例，以進一步提高效率。

So, do I think there's more? Yes, absolutely. But this stuff is a bit more difficult to go after than kind of the first tranche. But that is something that we keep top of mind in our operations each and every day. It's easily measurable, and it's something that my team is focused on quite heavily to drive further cost efficiencies over and above what we've already done so far.

那麼，我認為還有更多嗎？是的，一點沒錯。但這些東西比第一部分更難追求。但這是我們每天營運中最重要的事情。它很容易衡量，也是我的團隊非常關注的事情，以在我們迄今為止所做的基礎上進一步提高成本效率。

And if I could -- this is Rich. If I could add to Peter's comment, it kind of gets into the Fort Hills again. I mean, operatorship and 100% ownership are more immediate control on things. As we look at contractors, whether it's the contractor efficiency, deployment, just like equipment, I mentioned Finning and SMS, strategic contractors for us. We're able to look at things on a scale that the efficiency or improvements can come in some pretty material numbers. And we're able to do that because of the full scale and scope of our operation and that we indeed operate them. And I think when you start putting all that together, that's where you start to get kind of a snowball effect on what's possible.

如果可以的話——這是里奇。如果我可以補充彼得的評論，它又會再次進入堡壘山。我的意思是，經營權和 100% 所有權是對事物更直接的控制。當我們看承包商時，無論是承包商的效率、部署，就像設備一樣，我提到了Finning和SMS，他們是我們的策略承包商。我們能夠以相當大的規模來看待事物，效率或改進可以透過一些相當實質的數字來實現。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們的營運規模和範圍非常全面，而且我們確實在經營它們。我認為，當你開始將所有這些放在一起時，你就會開始對可能性產生滾雪球效應。

Appreciate the thoughts. I'll turn it back.

欣賞這些想法。我會把它轉回來。

One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo Securities.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自富國銀行證券公司的羅傑·里德 (Roger Read) 家族。

Yes. Maybe just to follow back up to make sure I understand the guidance items for the full year production and what's included in that. So, at the time you came out early May, Fort Hills consolidation was anticipated, but now it's 100%. So, maybe how does that compare? And is any of this have to do with the accounting convention, meaning that the close will be backdated to April 1 or does it matter when the transaction closes this quarter?

是的。也許只是為了跟進以確保我了解全年生產的指導項目以及其中包含的內容。所以，當你五月初出來時，Fort Hills 的整合就在預料之中，但現在已經是 100%了。那麼，也許這比較如何？這是否與會計慣例有關，即交易結束日期將回溯到 4 月 1 日，還是本季交易結束時間很重要？

Roger, it's Kris. Let me just -- it's not about the April 1 effective close date. So when we set the guidance at the beginning of the year, we had an assumption on the Teck transaction, which we completed. And we built that into guidance. You may recall that Total actually exercised its ROFR. And so, we ended up actually having less production than what we had anticipated in our guidance, but we didn't reset our guidance.

羅傑，我是克里斯。讓我簡單說一下——這與 4 月 1 日的有效截止日期無關。因此，當我們在年初設定指導時，我們對 Teck 交易做出了假設，並完成了該交易。我們將其納入指導。您可能還記得，道達爾實際上行使了 ROFR。因此，我們最終的產量實際上比我們在指導中預期的要少，但我們沒有重置我們的指導。

And so, what Rich was referring to is, obviously now we're completing the transaction for Total, which includes the volumes or the interest that they took from Teck. And so, we'll be including the newly acquired working interest in Total for the balance of the quarter, which is, we expect that to close here later in November. And so, when you look at it, it's a wash at the end of the day. And so that was just that point.

因此，里奇所指的是，顯然我們現在正在完成道達爾的交易，其中包括他們從泰克公司獲得的交易量或利息。因此，我們將在本季剩餘時間內將新收購的道達爾工作權益納入其中，也就是說，我們預計該工作將於 11 月稍後結束。所以，當你看到它時，你會發現這最終是一次洗禮。這就是重點。

And so, when we stack that up and then look at our operations, just to underline what Rich was saying, it's all hands on deck. We got a big quarter in front of us, but we got the assets available. Peter and the team are pushing hard. We like what we see from the asset. So, we're standing at the bottom end of the guidance. But we believe we'll be at or near it.

因此，當我們將其匯總起來，然後查看我們的運營情況時，只是為了強調里奇所說的，一切都在全力以赴。我們面臨著一個重要的季度，但我們有可用的資產。彼得和他的團隊正在努力推進。我們喜歡從資產中看到的東西。因此，我們正處於指南的底部。但我們相信我們會達到或接近這個目標。

And I'd just add to that. We've talked about Fort Hills now being a wash. The profile is different from the time of the year to the end. But really if you dig into it, there's some puts and takes, strong in-situ performance [in other areas]. The real big difference in all that is the absence of Terra Nova for the year. There are some other things that are generally kind of small ups and downs. But Terra Nova is the difference between being kind of middle of guidance and at the lower end of guidance.

我想補充一點。我們已經說過福特山現在正在被洗劫。每年的時間到年底的情況都不同。但實際上，如果你深入研究它，你會發現一些投入和投入，以及[在其他領域]的強大現場表現。真正最大的區別是今年沒有 Terra Nova。還有一些其他事情通常會有一些小起伏。但是 Terra Nova 是處於指導的中間位置和處於指導的下端之間的區別。

Okay. No, that helps. And then, back to your comments about the performance on the turnarounds this quarter, coming in on budget, but wanting to do better. My kind of broader question is, does the budget get tougher going forward? I mean, is that part of the process here of becoming, call it an upper quartile or upper quintile performer on turnarounds that it's not simply hit your budget, but you actually need to refine the budget down in terms of how turnarounds are executed.

好的。不，這有幫助。然後，回到您對本季度扭虧為盈績效的評論，在預算範圍內，但希望做得更好。我更廣泛的問題是，未來預算是否會變得更加嚴格？我的意思是，這裡的過程的一部分，稱之為週轉上四分位數或上五分位數的執行者，它不僅僅是達到你的預算，而且你實際上需要根據週轉的執行方式來細化預算。

Yes, absolutely. And what -- and I'm looking at Dave and Shelley here who are 2 executive leads on this across upstream and downstream. And kind of the first point I made it, and I said it kind of quickly, is get a level of predictability and stability relative to our own targets, the cost, the schedule, the work we have to get executed. That establishes just confidence in improving the performance in moving from a third quartile -- third or fourth quartile, depending on whether you're looking at cost schedule and then moving that up higher into a second quartile or above.

是的，一點沒錯。我正在看戴夫和雪萊，他們是上游和下游這方面的兩位執行領導。我提出的第一點，而且我說得很快，就是相對於我們自己的目標、成本、時間表和我們必須執行的工作，獲得一定程度的可預測性和穩定性。這為提高績效從第三個四分位數（第三個四分位數或第四個四分位數）建立了信心，具體取決於您是否正在考慮成本計劃，然後將其提高到第二個四分位數或更高。

It does deal with the processes, our risk-based work selection and the execution. So, stability with where we are now, our own expectations and then concerted improvement in areas where we know we have a gap. And I think we certainly won't declare victory, but what the second and third quarter have shown is, we are getting better at predictability and actually delivering on the commitments we've established for ourselves. Now it's time to get better.

它確實涉及流程、我們基於風險的工作選擇和執行。因此，穩定我們現在的狀況，我們自己的期望，然後在我們知道有差距的領域進行協調改進。我認為我們當然不會宣布勝利，但第二季和第三季所表明的是，我們在可預測性方面正在變得更好，並且實際上兌現了我們為自己制定的承諾。現在是時候變得更好了。

Shelley, Dave, anything you'd add to that?

雪萊、戴夫，你們還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think you said it well, Rich. And maybe the only thing I would add is, just an example of how we're going to get better using benchmarking. We do benchmark our turnarounds, but often it's later in the process when the scope is already defined. What we want to do is go early as we're planning the turnarounds in the very early stages, put our benchmarks in place, challenge the organization to deliver. And [John], as you said, more challenging targets, put that in early and then plan the turnaround on that basis. And I think with that change alone, we're going to see some significant improvement in our turnaround.

我認為你說得很好，里奇。也許我唯一要補充的是，這只是我們如何使用基準測試變得更好的一個例子。我們確實對我們的周轉情況進行了基準測試，但通常是在流程的後期，範圍已經確定的時候。我們想要做的是儘早行動，因為我們在早期階段就計劃週轉，制定我們的基準，挑戰組織交付。 [約翰]，正如你所說，更具挑戰性的目標，儘早提出，然後在此基礎上計劃週轉。我認為僅憑這一變化，我們就會看到我們的扭虧為盈取得了一些重大改進。

And so, I don't have numbers to share on it, but how does it look like when we get there? We're safer, we have a shorter duration because of the selection of the work, and we have lower cost. And then, when you do that, then you have more days where you're back up and running in production. So this is a huge opportunity for us. And as I said early in my comments that to say an acute focus on this, that would be a big understatement.

所以，我沒有可以分享的數據，但當我們到達那裡時，情況會是什麼樣子呢？我們更安全，由於工作的選擇，我們的工期更短，而且我們的成本更低。然後，當您這樣做時，您將有更多的時間在生產中恢復和運行。所以這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。正如我早些時候在評論中所說，要說對此的高度關注，這是一個很大的輕描淡寫。

No, I appreciate that clarity and look forward to seeing the execution on that front.

不，我很欣賞這種清晰度，並期待看到這方面的執行。

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的約翰·羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

So my first question, I think I'm going to borrow Neil's question on '24 CapEx and just make it a production question. So, maybe you can go through some of the moving pieces on the upstream production side, thinking about bridging to next year. There's obviously the increased working interest in Fort Hills. You've got the loss of UK, the Terra Nova restart, just a lot of moving pieces and not really sure how to think about the maintenance side. So, maybe you can help us frame how to think about production for next year.

所以我的第一個問題，我想我將藉用尼爾關於「24 資本支出」的問題，並將其作為一個生產問題。所以，也許你可以回顧一下上游生產方面的一些變化，考慮過渡到明年。顯然，福特山的工作興趣增加。你已經失去了英國，Terra Nova 重新啟動，只有很多移動部件，並且不太確定如何考慮維護方面。所以，也許你可以幫助我們制定如何考慮明年的生產。

Sure. And it's coming. Troy is looking at me like, don't let the horse out of the barn early. It's coming. But take where we project we're going to end up this year, in the $740 million range. And the same asset base, Terra Nova wasn't part of it. Flash forward to next year. We have an incremental ownership at Fort Hills and a modest growth overall at Fort Hills. And then we've got Terra Nova back on for -- we expect to be essentially the full year. We'll ramp up as we bring on well centers a little bit in the year, but we have that on. So if you take and add those 3 numbers together, you're not far off from what we'll be expecting the 2024 to look like.

當然。它即將到來。特洛伊看著我，就像在說，別讓馬早點出穀倉。它來了。但就我們預計今年的最終收入而言，將達到 7.4 億美元。同樣的資產基礎，Terra Nova 並不屬於其中。快轉到明年。我們在 Fort Hills 擁有增量所有權，並且 Fort Hills 整體成長溫和。然後我們又讓 Terra Nova 重新上線——我們預計基本上是全年。隨著今年我們引進一些井中心，我們會加大力度，但我們已經做到了。因此，如果將這 3 個數字加在一起，您就與我們對 2024 年的預期相去不遠了。

Great. And then, just maybe if we could have an update on when you expect to get to the 75% level on capital allocation. You have the visibility now for what you're paying for Fort Hills. And you've given some guidance on your-end net debt. So, any view on the timing there?

偉大的。然後，也許我們可以了解您預計何時達到 75% 資本配置水準的最新情況。現在您可以清楚地了解您為 Fort Hills 支付的費用。您已經就您的最終淨債務提供了一些指導。那麼，對於時間安排有什麼看法嗎？

Yes. John, it's Chris here. So, as I mentioned in my comments, we expect to exit the year somewhere between $13.5 billion and $14 billion because of the transaction. And depending on commodity price, we expect the $12 billion net debt to be somewhere in the back end of 2024. I mean, it depends obviously on your view of the price deck going into 2024. We do expect a strong year on production next year and higher volumes, as Rich just said, as well as we're driving a lower cost structure. So that's certainly going to help accelerate that. But that's kind of the notional timing you should think about.

是的。約翰，我是克里斯。因此，正如我在評論中提到的，由於此次交易，我們預計今年的退出金額將在 135 億至 140 億美元之間。根據大宗商品價格，我們預計 2024 年年底將出現 120 億美元的淨債務。我的意思是，這顯然取決於您對 2024 年價格走勢的看法。我們確實預計明年的生產將強勁正如里奇剛才所說，我們正在推動更低的成本結構。所以這肯定會有助於加速這一進程。但這是您應該考慮的概念時機。

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session for today. I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Rich Kruger for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將會議轉交給 Rich Kruger 先生，讓他發表結束語。

Okay. Thank you. Okay. First of all, folks, you've got to blame what I say here on Greg Pardy. He started it out with a baseball question. The 2 questions I get asked the most are, can Suncor turn it around? And if so, how fast? We all know by now I'm a sports fan. I love teamwork, strategy, competition and winning.

好的。謝謝。好的。首先，夥計們，你們必須把我在這裡說的話歸咎於格雷格·帕迪。他以一個棒球問題開始。我最常被問到的兩個問題是：Suncor 能否扭轉局勢？如果是的話，速度有多快？現在我們都知道我是個運動迷。我喜歡團隊合作、策略、競爭和勝利。

8 days ago, a team called the Texas Rangers won the World Series, best team in baseball. 2 years ago, they were last in their division. They were 1 of the worst teams in baseball. Now they are the World Champs. How did they do it?

8天前，德州遊騎兵隊贏得了世界職棒大賽最佳球隊獎。兩年前，他們在分區墊底。他們是棒球界最差的球隊之一。現在他們是世界冠軍。他們是如何做到的呢？

Same game, big turnaround. Well, they got a new coach, a little bit of gray hair there, lots of experience, kind of a no-nonsense kind of guy. They got a few new players. They took some of the current players and put them on the field where they could succeed the most. What else? They created an intense focus on the goal of winning, a culture of winning, an endless focus on the fundamentals. So what does any of this have to do with Suncor? Maybe nothing. But to our investors who have stayed the same, they've cheered us on, held on to their seasoned tickets. Thank you for your confidence and your patience. Our goal is to reward you with the trophy. That's all we've got for today. This team needs to get back on the field.

同樣的遊戲，大逆轉。好吧，他們有了一位新教練，頭髮花白了一些，經驗豐富，是個嚴肅的人。他們引進了一些新球員。他們挑選了一些現有的球員，並將他們放在最能取得成功的球場上。還有什麼？他們創造了對勝利目標的強烈關注、一種勝利文化、對基本面的無盡關注。那麼這跟 Suncor 有什麼關係呢？也許什麼都沒有。但對於我們保持不變的投資者來說，他們為我們加油，保留了他們經驗豐富的門票。感謝您的信任與耐心。我們的目標是用獎盃獎勵您。這就是我們今天的全部內容。這支球隊需要重返賽場。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to our team.

謝謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯絡我們的團隊。

Thank you. This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的節目到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。