Suncor Energy Inc (SU) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Suncor Energy Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Mr. Troy Little, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Suncor Energy 2022 年第四季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。此時，我現在想把會議交給今天的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Troy Little 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Welcome to Suncor Energy's fourth quarter earnings call. Please note that today's comments contain forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially from the expected results because of various risk factors and assumptions that are described in our fourth quarter earnings release as well as in our current annual information form, both of which are available on SEDAR, EDGAR and our website, suncor.com. Certain financial measures referred to in these comments are not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. For a description of these financial measures, please see our fourth quarter earnings release.

謝謝接線員，早上好。歡迎來到 Suncor Energy 的第四季度財報電話會議。請注意，今天的評論包含前瞻性信息。由於我們第四季度收益發布以及我們當前的年度信息表中描述的各種風險因素和假設，實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異，這兩者都可以在 SEDAR、EDGAR 和我們的網站 suncor 上找到。 com。這些評論中提到的某些財務措施並未由加拿大公認的會計原則規定。有關這些財務措施的說明，請參閱我們的第四季度收益發布。

We will start with comments from Kris Smith, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Alister Cowan, Suncor's Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call are 3 of our senior operating leaders; Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Mining and Upgrading; Shelley Powell, Senior Vice President InSitu and E&P; and Arnel Santos, Senior Vice President, Refining and Logistics. Following the formal remarks, we'll open the call to questions.

我們將從臨時總裁兼首席執行官 Kris Smith 的評論開始，然後是 Suncor 的首席財務官 Alister Cowan。隨叫隨到的還有我們的 3 位高級運營主管；採礦和升級執行副總裁 Peter Zebedee； InSitu 和 E&P 高級副總裁 Shelley Powell；和精煉與物流高級副總裁 Arnel Santos。在正式發言之後，我們將開始提問。

Now I'll hand it over to Kris to share his perspectives on the quarter.

現在我將把它交給 Kris 來分享他對本季度的看法。

Thanks, Troy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Since taking on the interim CEO role of Suncor in July of last year, I have been fully committed to improving the safety and reliability of our operations. We're also maximizing our value capture by leveraging Suncor's difficult to replicate integrated model and driving fit and focus across our asset base. I want to begin our discussion today with an update on several initiatives we discussed at our recent Investor Day.

謝謝，特洛伊。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。自去年 7 月擔任 Suncor 的臨時首席執行官以來，我一直致力於提高我們運營的安全性和可靠性。我們還通過利用 Suncor 難以復制的集成模型並在我們的資產基礎上推動契合和專注，最大限度地提高我們的價值獲取。我想以我們在最近的投資者日討論的幾項舉措的最新情況開始我們今天的討論。

First, on Safety. As planned, collision awareness systems are scheduled to go live at Syncrude's Aurora mine by the end of the first quarter, and we are on track to complete implementation of collision awareness and fatigue management technology systems across all 9 sites. As well, we continue to drive sharp focus on safety performance across the entire company. And to that end, we have doubled the safety component winning of our 2023 Employee Annual Incentive Program to ensure alignment with that focus.

首先，關於安全。按照計劃，碰撞感知系統計劃於第一季度末在 Syncrude 的 Aurora 礦上線，我們有望在所有 9 個站點完成碰撞感知和疲勞管理技術系統的實施。此外，我們繼續推動整個公司高度重視安全績效。為此，我們將 2023 年員工年度激勵計劃中贏得的安全部分增加了一倍，以確保與這一重點保持一致。

Second, with respect to Costs. We are making progress on contractor workforce reductions in our mining and upgrading business and remain on track to achieve a 20% reduction by mid-2023. And to be clear, these reductions will not be replaced by in-sourced workforce. Third, with respect to reliability. Our upstream assets performed well overall during our very cold weather at the end of Q4. Syncrude achieved the highest full year production in its history, while our Firebag In Situ assets had a new quarterly production record. With respect to Fort Hills, while there will be variability between quarters during the next 3 years, as outlined at our recent Investor Day, our performance improvement plan is progressing as expected. By mid-2023, volumes will start to ramp up as our mine inventory increases until our planned 5-year fixed plant turnaround in July and August.

第二，關於成本。我們在減少採礦和升級業務的承包商勞動力方面取得了進展，並有望在 2023 年年中實現減少 20% 的目標。需要明確的是，這些裁員不會被外包勞動力所取代。第三，關於可靠性。在第四季度末非常寒冷的天氣中，我們的上游資產整體表現良好。 Syncrude 實現了其歷史上最高的全年產量，而我們的 Firebag In Situ 資產創下了新的季度產量記錄。至於 Fort Hills，雖然正如我們最近的投資者日所概述的那樣，未來 3 年的季度之間會有變化，但我們的績效改進計劃正在按預期進行。到 2023 年年中，隨著我們的礦山庫存增加，產量將開始增加，直到我們計劃在 7 月和 8 月進行為期 5 年的固定工廠檢修。

Last, we continue to adjust our asset portfolio to focus more on our core integrated business. We completed the sale of our wind and solar assets and are making progress on the potential sale of our U.K. North Sea assets. We also closed the acquisition of an additional stake in Fort Hills from tech resources. Considering the smaller-than-expected interest we acquired, we are updating our annual production guidance for Fort Hills to reflect a corresponding decrease of 5,000 barrels per day for an annual range of 85,000 to 95,000 barrels per day.

最後，我們繼續調整我們的資產組合，更加專注於我們的核心綜合業務。我們完成了風能和太陽能資產的出售，並在可能出售我們的英國北海資產方面取得進展。我們還完成了從 Tech Resources 收購 Fort Hills 額外股份的交易。考慮到我們收購的利息低於預期，我們正在更新 Fort Hills 的年度生產指導，以反映每天 85,000 至 95,000 桶的年度範圍相應減少 5,000 桶。

Now on to the quarter. Looking at the fourth quarter results, Suncor generated adjusted funds from operations of $4.2 billion or $3.11 per share. Total upstream production averaged 763,000 barrels per day. 70% of this was Syncrude crude oil or synthetic crude oil, which commanded premium pricing due to higher distillate cut relative to WTI. 20% was nonupgraded bitumen from our Institute operations in Fort Hills. And lastly, 10% came from our E&P segment and reflects the disposition of our Norway assets, which was completed in the third quarter.

現在進入季度。看看第四季度的業績，Suncor 從運營中產生了 42 億美元或每股 3.11 美元的調整後資金。上游總產量平均為每天 763,000 桶。其中 70% 是 Syncrude 原油或合成原油，由於相對於 WTI 的餾分油切割率較高，因此價格較高。 20% 是我們在 Fort Hills 的研究所運營的未升級瀝青。最後，10% 來自我們的 E&P 部門，反映了我們在第三季度完成的挪威資產的處置。

Downstream generated $1.7 billion of FIFO adjusted funds from operations with an average refinery utilization rate of 94% and margin capture was strong at 99%. As previously communicated, our Commerce City refinery was put into safe mode following the impact of the extreme weather in late December. It has begun a progressive restart and we expect it to come back to full production later in the first quarter.

下游從運營中產生了 17 億美元的 FIFO 調整資金，平均煉油廠利用率為 94%，利潤率高達 99%。如前所述，我們的 Commerce City 煉油廠在 12 月下旬極端天氣的影響後進入安全模式。它已經開始逐步重啟，我們預計它將在第一季度晚些時候恢復全面生產。

For the full year 2022, Suncor generated record adjusted funds from operations of $18.1 billion, which is 67% higher than our previous annual record. We paid down $3.2 billion of debt through the year, further strengthening our balance sheet. And at the same time through dividends and share buybacks, we returned record cash to shareholders of $7.7 billion representing nearly 45% of adjusted funds from operations for a 13% cash yield. We also continue to drive capital discipline across the company, and our capital expenditures for the year were $4.9 billion, which is at the bottom end of our updated guidance range.

2022 年全年，Suncor 從運營中產生了創紀錄的調整後資金 181 億美元，比我們之前的年度記錄高出 67%。我們全年償還了 32 億美元的債務，進一步加強了我們的資產負債表。同時，通過派息和股票回購，我們向股東返還了創紀錄的 77 億美元現金，佔調整後運營資金的近 45%，現金收益率為 13%。我們還繼續推動整個公司的資本紀律，我們今年的資本支出為 49 億美元，處於我們最新指導範圍的底部。

Now before turning things over to Alister, I would like to highlight the significant progress we've made to date on the oil sands Pathways Alliance to Net Zero, a key lever in our sustainability leadership and the long-term decarbonization of the oil sands industry. Recently, you have seen that Pathways has signed an evaluation agreement with the Province of Alberta, allowing further delineation of our allocated floor space. We hope to further advance this with the formal lease agreement before the end of 2023. As well, front-end engineering and design of both the pipeline and sequestration facilities progresses as we continue to work with both the Canadian federal and Alberta provincial governments on the required fiscal and regulatory frameworks to enable these important projects.

現在，在將事情交給 Alister 之前，我想強調一下我們迄今為止在油砂淨零排放途徑聯盟方面取得的重大進展，這是我們可持續發展領導地位和油砂行業長期脫碳的關鍵槓桿.最近，您看到 Pathways 與阿爾伯塔省簽署了評估協議，允許進一步劃定我們分配的建築面積。我們希望在 2023 年底之前通過正式租賃協議進一步推進這一進程。此外，隨著我們繼續與加拿大聯邦政府和艾伯塔省政府就需要財政和監管框架來支持這些重要項目。

And with that, I'll now pass it over to Alister to go through the financial results.

有了這個，我現在將它傳遞給 Alister 來查看財務結果。

Thanks, Kris, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, Oil Sands delivered approximately $2.9 billion of adjusted funds from operations with an average realization of CAD 97 per barrel. The quarterly performance reflects, obviously, lower commodity prices compared to Q3, specifically, a decrease in WTI of USD 9 per barrel as well as USD 5 per barrel decrease in the in Syn premium. We also saw the light heavy differentials widened by USD 6 per barrel, but the upstream impact was offset by a benefit in downstream due to our physical integration.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。第四季度，Oil Sands 從運營中交付了約 29 億美元的調整後資金，平均實現每桶 97 加元。與第三季度相比，季度表現顯然反映了大宗商品價格的下降，具體而言，WTI 原油價格每桶下跌 9 美元，同業溢價每桶下跌 5 美元。我們還看到輕重油價差擴大了每桶 6 美元，但由於我們的物理整合，上游的影響被下游的好處所抵消。

Softening commodity prices quarter-over-quarter were partially offset by higher production following completion of significant turnaround activities at the base plant and Syncrude upgraders. On an annual basis, cash cost per barrel for Oil Sands operations, Fort Hills and Syncrude came in as forecast, reflecting industry-wide inflationary pressures as well as main progression work that we discussed in some detail at our Investor Day last November.

大宗商品價格環比走軟被基礎工廠和 Syncrude 升級工廠完成重大周轉活動後產量增加所部分抵消。按年計算，油砂業務、Fort Hills 和 Syncrude 的每桶現金成本符合預期，反映了整個行業的通脹壓力以及我們在去年 11 月的投資者日上詳細討論的主要進展工作。

As benefits from our enterprise-wide systems implementation and other digital initiatives start to come through, we continue to focus on employee and contractor workforce reductions over 2023 and '24. Our E&P segment generated $720 million of adjusted funds from operations in the quarter. reflecting average price realizations of CAD 122 per barrel. As Kris said, Downstream generated $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations. And excluding a $440 million FIFO loss in the quarter, this would have been $2.1 billion on a LIFO basis. This performance demonstrates the strength and competitive advantage of our integrated model, which enabled us to capture robust benchmark cracks and lower feedstock costs with widening heavy differentials. As a result, we achieved margin capture of 99% through the quarter.

隨著我們的企業範圍系統實施和其他數字計劃的好處開始顯現，我們將繼續關注 2023 年和 24 年的員工和承包商勞動力削減。我們的 E&P 部門在本季度的運營中產生了 7.2 億美元的調整後資金。反映了每桶 122 加元的平均價格實現。正如 Kris 所說，Downstream 從運營中產生了 17 億美元的調整後資金。不包括本季度 4.4 億美元的 FIFO 損失，按 LIFO 計算，這將是 21 億美元。這種性能證明了我們集成模型的實力和競爭優勢，這使我們能夠捕獲強大的基準裂縫並通過擴大重差來降低原料成本。因此，我們在本季度實現了 99% 的利潤率。

Onco returned $1.4 billion to shareholders, including $700 million in dividends and $725 million in share buybacks in the fourth quarter. On a full year basis, that's 117 million shares repurchased and $7.7 billion of total value returned to shareholders or approximately 13% of our market cap. Our quarterly dividend is now the highest in the [Commerce] history after the most recent increase of 11% to $0.52 per share. And as Kris said, we continue to strengthen the balance sheet and reduce net debt during the year by $3.2 billion, excluding FX impacts on U.S. dollar culminated debt.

Onco 在第四季度向股東返還了 14 億美元，其中包括 7 億美元的股息和 7.25 億美元的股票回購。按全年計算，回購了 1.17 億股股票，向股東返還了 77 億美元的總價值，約占我們市值的 13%。在最近一次上漲 11% 至每股 0.52 美元之後，我們的季度股息現在是 [Commerce] 歷史上最高的。正如 Kris 所說，我們繼續加強資產負債表，並將年內的淨債務減少 32 億美元，不包括外匯對美元最終債務的影響。

As previously noted, we intend to increase excess funds to buy back to 75% by the end of Q1. And subsequent to the fourth quarter, the Board approved a renewal of the company's share repurchase program for up to 10% of Suncor's issued and outstanding common shares as of February 3, 2023. And this program is planned to begin on February 17, 2023.

如前所述，我們打算在第一季度末將用於回購的超額資金增加到 75%。在第四季度之後，董事會批准更新公司的股份回購計劃，截至 2023 年 2 月 3 日，最多回購 Suncor 已發行和流通普通股的 10%。該計劃計劃於 2023 年 2 月 17 日開始。

With that, I'll pass it back to Kris for his closing comments.

有了這個，我會把它傳回給 Kris 以徵求他的結束評論。

Great. Thanks, Alister. Over my last 6 months as interim CEO, I've placed my focus on setting the foundation for improved performance through operational excellence and a strong safety and performance culture with focus and follow through. Our continued focus will be not only to build on that momentum, but to accelerate it, driving delivery of safe, reliable operations, capital discipline, reducing our cost structure and growing shareholder returns.

偉大的。謝謝，阿利斯特。在擔任臨時 CEO 的過去 6 個月裡，我一直專注於通過卓越運營和強大的安全和績效文化為提高績效奠定基礎，重點關注並貫徹到底。我們的持續關注點不僅在於鞏固這一勢頭，而且要加速它的發展，推動交付安全、可靠的運營、資本紀律、降低我們的成本結構和增加股東回報。

Suncor has an unparalleled set of assets in the Canadian oil sands, coupled with an unmatched integrated model. We see great opportunities in front of Suncor to leverage those competitive differentiators to drive value for our shareholders in both the short and the long term, and that is our focus.

Suncor 在加拿大油砂領域擁有無與倫比的資產組合，以及無與倫比的綜合模式。我們在 Suncor 面前看到了巨大的機會，可以利用這些競爭優勢為我們的股東在短期和長期創造價值，這是我們的重點。

And with that, I look forward to any questions you may have, and I'll turn it back over to you, Troy.

有了這個，我期待著你可能有的任何問題，我會把它轉回給你，特洛伊。

Thank you, Kris and Alister. I'll turn the call back to the operator to take some questions.

謝謝你，克里斯和阿利斯特。我會將電話轉回給接線員回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Dennis Fong with CIBC.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Dennis Fong。

I appreciate you answering our questions this morning. First and foremost, understanding that there were some comments around margin capture from the refining business. I was hoping that you could outline some of the operational impacts from the Supply & Trading business unit really given the combination of price volatility and some of the other, we'll call it, items like potentially ramping up Commerce City?

感謝您今天早上回答我們的問題。首先，了解有一些關於煉油業務利潤獲取的評論。我希望您能概述一下供應和貿易業務部門的一些運營影響，這些影響實際上是考慮到價格波動和其他一些因素的組合，我們稱之為，可能會增加商業城的項目？

Yes. No, thanks very much, Dennis, for that question. We're very proud of our supply and trading organization. That organization has been in place for over 20 years, and we've been putting a lot of work and focus on growing it and creating greater impact from that part of the organization. It's based in Calgary, but we also have significant trading and marketing operations in Houston as well as an office in London, U.K.

是的。不，非常感謝丹尼斯提出這個問題。我們為我們的供應和貿易組織感到非常自豪。該組織已經存在 20 多年，我們一直在投入大量工作並專注於發展它並從該組織的這一部分創造更大的影響。它位於卡爾加里，但我們在休斯敦也有重要的貿易和營銷業務，並在英國倫敦設有辦事處。

What I'd say is that organization as we manage the operations it looks to increase the value capture and maximize that margin by leveraging our logistics positions, working closely with both upstream and downstream, and also ensuring that we're maximizing our asset-backed trading activities around that as well. Examples would be, I mean, obviously, we had the shutdown of the Commerce City refinery that we put into safe mode because of the extreme weather events that happened in late December in the Midwest and Gulf Coast.

我要說的是，在我們管理運營時，該組織希望通過利用我們的物流地位、與上游和下游密切合作並確保我們最大化我們的資產支持來增加價值捕獲並最大化利潤圍繞它的交易活動也是如此。例如，我的意思是，顯然，由於 12 月下旬在中西部和墨西哥灣沿岸發生的極端天氣事件，我們關閉了商業城煉油廠，我們將其置於安全模式。

Our supply and trading organization was able to react quickly to manage both crude feedstock supply into that facility, but also product supply into the PADD 4 region. Another example would be with the Keystone outage that occurred at the end of December. We were able to react very quickly and very flexibly to that in terms of looking at our product mix in our oil sands business and using our asset positions, our logistics, our tankage positions to actually mitigate the impact of that and maximize margin through that event. So -- so it's a great part of the organization. Thanks for asking the question, Dennis. I don't think it gets enough attention sometimes because it's a key component of our integrated model and that margin capture that you see in the downstream, but also our margins we see in the upstream.

我們的供應和貿易組織能夠迅速做出反應，管理該設施的原油原料供應，以及 PADD 4 地區的產品供應。另一個例子是 12 月底發生的 Keystone 中斷。我們能夠非常快速、非常靈活地對此做出反應，查看我們在油砂業務中的產品組合，並利用我們的資產頭寸、我們的物流、我們的儲罐頭寸來實際減輕其影響並通過該事件最大化利潤.所以 - 所以它是組織的重要組成部分。謝謝你問這個問題，丹尼斯。我認為它有時沒有得到足夠的關注，因為它是我們集成模型的關鍵組成部分，也是您在下游看到的利潤率捕獲，也是我們在上游看到的利潤率。

Great. I appreciate that color. And if I would -- if at all possible, I'd like to move in a slightly different direction. You've now commissioned and completed the PFT hot bitumen transfer pipeline, which now connects Fort Hills to your operating complex in the base plant and the baseline. I was just hoping for some commentary a, on, we'll call it, the increased flexibility that you have by connecting all of these various assets and secondarily, I believe the base plant has processed PFT barrels. I believe it was at the start of Fort Hills. But wouldn't mind understanding kind of again the potential flexibility as well as the upside that, that connection could offer?

偉大的。我很欣賞那種顏色。如果我願意——如果可能的話，我想朝稍微不同的方向前進。您現在已經調試並完成了 PFT 熱瀝青輸送管道，該管道現在將 Fort Hills 連接到您在基地工廠和基線上的運營綜合體。我只是希望得到一些評論，我們稱之為，通過連接所有這些不同的資產來增加靈活性，其次，我相信基地工廠已經處理了 PFT 桶。我相信那是在 Fort Hills 的起點。但是不介意再次了解這種聯繫可能提供的潛在靈活性和好處嗎？

Great. Thanks for that Dennis. So I'm going to pass that question over to Peter Zebedee.

偉大的。謝謝丹尼斯。所以我要把這個問題轉交給 Peter Zebedee。

Yes. Thanks very much, Dennis. So yes, indeed, you're correct. We have commissions of PFT jump over line to put Fort Hills barrels over into the base upgrader. We have the flexibility to bring over up to 40,000 barrels per day of Fort Hills bitumen into the upgrader. We have utilized that within the last year. And that, of course, just provides additional flexibility for us on bitumen supply sources into the upgrader.

是的。非常感謝，丹尼斯。所以是的，確實，你是對的。我們有 PFT 越線委託，將 Fort Hills 桶放入基礎升級器。我們可以靈活地每天將多達 40,000 桶 Fort Hills 瀝青帶入升級裝置。我們在去年利用了它。當然，這只是為我們在升級器中提供瀝青供應源方面提供了額外的靈活性。

I think that particular line in conjunction with the ICP line that we have between both Syncrude and the base plant offer us differentiated flexibility in the region to offset various unit maintenance activities and really extract them with the highest margin for the barrels that we're producing in the upstream.

我認為，與我們在 Syncrude 和基地工廠之間擁有的 ICP 生產線相結合的特定生產線為我們提供了該地區差異化的靈活性，以抵消各種裝置維護活動，並真正以我們生產的桶的最高利潤提取它們在上游。

Thanks, Peter. I'll just add to that. I like the flexibility that Peter is highlighting, Fort Hills, Syncrude, Firebag, we've got all those assets with connectivity into our base plant and into the Athabasca tank terminal. So it's creating a tremendous amount of optionality for us. to move bitumen around. And in the case of Syncrude as well, we -- it's a bidirectional pipeline, and we can move sour gas oils up to Syncrude when we find ourselves an opportunity where we've got long hydrotreating in that asset. So it's been a real win for Suncor, and we're looking for more and more opportunities to increase that flexibility.

謝謝，彼得。我會補充一點。我喜歡彼得強調的靈活性，Fort Hills、Syncrude、Firebag，我們擁有所有這些資產，可以連接到我們的基地工廠和阿薩巴斯卡油罐碼頭。因此，它為我們創造了大量的可選性。移動瀝青。在 Syncrude 的情況下，我們 - 這是一條雙向管道，當我們發現自己有機會在該資產中進行長期加氫處理時，我們可以將含硫汽油輸送到 Syncrude。所以這對 Suncor 來說是一場真正的勝利，我們正在尋找越來越多的機會來提高這種靈活性。

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Greg Pardy 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

Yes. I wanted to stay maybe just on the operations side right now. And 2 questions there. The first is Kris, why is a 20% reduction in the contractor workforce, like how did you guys sort of land on that as being the right number? And I think you probably accomplished probably half of that already? And are you seeing benefits coming from it?

是的。我現在想留在運營方面。那裡有 2 個問題。第一個是 Kris，為什麼要減少 20% 的承包商勞動力，比如你們是如何確定這個數字是正確的？我想你可能已經完成了一半？你看到它帶來的好處了嗎？

Yes. Thanks very much, Greg. And 20%, I wouldn't say is an arbitrary number. It's working in a very focused way to how low can we get that contractor workforce down while ensuring we're maintaining safe, reliable operations and getting the work done. Maybe I'll ask Peter to talk to it a bit. Peter has obviously been leading this because it's been primarily in our mine in upgrading business, which is really the part of the business that has the largest amount of contract workforce.

是的。非常感謝，格雷格。 20%，我不會說是一個任意數字。它以一種非常集中的方式工作，在確保我們保持安全、可靠的運營並完成工作的同時，我們可以將承包商勞動力減少到多低。也許我會請彼得跟它談談。彼得顯然一直在領導這件事，因為它主要是在我們的礦山升級業務，這實際上是擁有最多合同工的業務的一部分。

Peter, do you want to...

彼得，你想...

Yes. No, I would say maybe a couple of things, Greg. First was ensuring that we had the transparency built out across the assets to understand how many contractors there coming through the gate each and every day. As you can imagine, with these mega sites, the scale is quite significant. So we had to get our arms around the numbers.

是的。不，我可能會說幾件事，格雷格。首先是確保我們在資產中建立了透明度，以了解每天有多少承包商通過大門。可以想像，這些大型站點的規模非常大。所以我們必須掌握這些數字。

The second was implementing a robust set of controls and work processes on ensuring that we're really scrutinizing the release of work to contractors and ensuring that we're maximizing the capacity that we have within our own Suncor workforce first and foremost. And then we're really looking to also build some additional tools to provide to our operators to provide them with sufficient information to ensure that we're sequencing maintenance activities, in particular in the most cost-efficient way.

第二個是實施一套強大的控制和工作流程，以確保我們真正仔細審查向承包商發布的工作，並確保我們首先最大限度地發揮我們自己 Suncor 員工的能力。然後我們真的希望構建一些額外的工具來提供給我們的操作員，為他們提供足夠的信息，以確保我們正在對維護活動進行排序，特別是以最具成本效益的方式。

Thanks, Peter. And Greg, I'd add to that as well. So we are making good progress, as you just mentioned, we're on track. We've got high confidence in driving those reductions. But the thing I'd add to it, these reductions do 2 things in our mind. One, obviously, it reduces cost and increases efficiency. But secondly, and as importantly, it actually improves safety because there's less people in the field. And so we're getting both the benefits from these reductions.

謝謝，彼得。格雷格，我也要補充一點。所以我們正在取得良好的進展，正如你剛才提到的，我們正在走上正軌。我們對推動這些削減充滿信心。但我要補充的是，這些減少在我們的腦海中做了兩件事。第一，很明顯，它降低了成本並提高了效率。但其次，同樣重要的是，它實際上提高了安全性，因為現場人員減少了。因此，我們從這些減少中獲得了好處。

Okay. Terrific. And just really, the second question comes back to the upstream. So as you've maybe had a relook under all the rocks in the upstream, where do you see most of the low-hanging fruit as it relates to either output increases or cost reductions aside from safety, I'm just wondering, is there more to come from MacKay, is there more to come from Firebag and so forth. But where do you see the easy wins that maybe you can achieve in '23?

好的。了不起。實際上，第二個問題又回到了上游。因此，您可能已經重新審視了上游的所有岩石，您在哪裡可以看到大部分唾手可得的成果，因為它與安全性以外的產量增加或成本降低有關，我只是想知道，是否有更多來自 MacKay，是否有更多來自 Firebag 等等。但是你在哪裡看到你可以在 23 年取得的輕鬆勝利？

Yes. Our focus in 2023 is in the upstream and particularly in the oil sands basin. It's continuing to drive -- leveraging the scale around regionalization. And so the contractor reduction is a great example of that because it's the ability to leverage across the entire asset base and optimize and drive down the contractor workforce, as an example. We're continuing to work on that regionalization strategy around services, around materials and supplies.

是的。我們 2023 年的重點是上游，尤其是油砂盆地。它正在繼續推動——利用區域化的規模。因此，減少承包商就是一個很好的例子，因為它能夠利用整個資產基礎並優化和降低承包商勞動力，例如。我們將繼續圍繞服務、材料和用品製定區域化戰略。

And then the other piece is, and Peter was talking about earlier in his answer, on the question around Fort Hills is we're seeing this opportunity to continue to drive this integration between the assets because it increases reliability and how we manage even things like maintenance events. So as we're managing, for instance, maintenance in Syncrude, we now have the added benefit that we look at, well, if certain things are down for maintenance, it doesn't mean necessarily we're slowing the mine down. We can now move that bitumen and bring that bitumen into the base plant.

然後另一部分是，Peter 在他的回答中早些時候談到，關於 Fort Hills 的問題是我們看到這個機會繼續推動資產之間的這種整合，因為它提高了可靠性以及我們如何管理甚至像這樣的事情維護事件。因此，例如，當我們管理 Syncrude 的維護時，我們現在有了額外的好處，好吧，如果某些東西因維護而停機，這並不意味著我們一定會放慢礦山的速度。我們現在可以移動瀝青並將其帶入基地工廠。

So we're going to be focusing on more and more opportunities like that. I've been pleased with what I've been seeing with the assets. An example would be Firebag as well. We had a Q4 production record. So we're seeing increased reliability across the assets. But really, our big focus is in the mine upgrading space that Peter is leading because there's a lot of opportunity, both on how we're managing cost in the business as well as how we're optimizing the production amongst the assets.

所以我們將關注越來越多這樣的機會。我對我所看到的資產感到滿意。 Firebag 也是一個例子。我們有第四季度的生產記錄。因此，我們看到資產的可靠性有所提高。但實際上，我們的重點是彼得領導的礦山升級領域，因為有很多機會，無論是我們如何管理業務成本，還是我們如何優化資產中的生產。

And our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Guys, I wonder if I could address the dividend. I know you've announced it last quarter, but with the visibility you have today, one of the key things behind the strategy we laid out a few years ago was to drop the breakeven. So with all the moving parts that we've seen with Fort Hills and the kind of reset you've had, where do you think that breakeven progress sits today relative to what you laid out? I guess what I'm asking is what's the breakeven to cover your dividend today? What's the headroom for additional dividend increases?

伙計們，我想知道我是否可以解決股息問題。我知道你在上個季度宣布了它，但鑑於你今天的知名度，我們幾年前製定的戰略背後的關鍵因素之一就是降低收支平衡。因此，考慮到我們在 Fort Hills 看到的所有移動部分以及您所進行的那種重置，您認為相對於您所製定的內容，今天的收支平衡進展在哪裡？我想我要問的是今天支付股息的盈虧平衡點是多少？額外增加股息的空間是多少？

Go ahead, Alister.

來吧，阿利斯特。

Yes, I'll take that one, Kris. Thanks for the question, Doug. Obviously, lots of moving parts here. The dividend has been going up and as we progress improvement in our operations. I would say, as we said and look at it today, corporate breakeven for sustaining capital and dividend is low to mid $40 WTI. It's higher than obviously we had targeted. But it is competitive amongst our integrated peers. As we work through our performance improvement plan to drive down cost and improve reliability and production over the long term, we are focused on driving that back then to our longer-term target of the mid-$30.

是的，我要那個，克里斯。謝謝你的問題，道格。顯然，這裡有很多活動部件。隨著我們在運營方面取得進展，股息一直在增加。我會說，正如我們今天所說和觀察的那樣，維持資本和股息的企業盈虧平衡點低於 40 美元 WTI 中等水平。它明顯高於我們的目標。但它在我們的綜合同行中具有競爭力。當我們通過我們的性能改進計劃來降低成本並提高可靠性和長期生產時，我們專注於將其推回到我們 30 美元中期的長期目標。

The biggest factor in that really and the opportunity is the main improvement plan, particularly in Fort Hills. And I would see as we work through those near-term mine constraints and get into the north pit, the largest and final pit, we would expect to see a significant improvement in Fort Hills. That will help us drive down the overall corporate breakeven.

真正的最大因素和機會是主要的改進計劃，特別是在堡壘山。我會看到，當我們克服這些近期的礦山限制並進入最大和最後一個礦坑北礦坑時，我們預計會在 Fort Hills 看到顯著改善。這將幫助我們降低整體公司收支平衡。

Okay. I will continue to watch it. I guess my follow-up is buried in the numbers, I guess, there was a comment about the increase in decommissioning in restoration provision. I'm just wondering if you can walk us through what the back story is there, how this has come about, whether we should expect that -- whether this is the end of the story or we should expect that to continue to evolve? And I'll leave it there.

好的。我會繼續看的。我想我的後續行動被埋沒在數字中，我想，有一條關於恢復規定中退役增加的評論。我只是想知道你是否可以向我們介紹一下背後的故事，這是如何發生的，我們是否應該期待 - 這是故事的結局還是我們應該期待它繼續發展？我會把它留在那裡。

Yes. Thanks, Doug. I mean you've heard us talk about the challenges of water return remediation, which is an industry-wide challenge anybody would mind (inaudible). And it's certainly one that we've been talking about, there will be in conversation, discussions with the 2 levels of government in Canada and also the First Nations to resolve. I'd just remind everybody, we're the only industry in the world that is not allowed to return any treated water back to the river. And that would include all the rainfall that falls on our sites.

是的。謝謝，道格。我的意思是您已經聽過我們談論回水修復的挑戰，這是任何人都會介意的全行業挑戰（聽不清）。這肯定是我們一直在談論的一個問題，將與加拿大兩級政府和原住民進行對話、討論以解決問題。我只想提醒大家，我們是世界上唯一不允許將任何處理過的水返回河流的行業。這將包括落在我們網站上的所有降雨。

So everybody in the industry is actually focused on resolving this. Obviously, we have a larger volume than anybody else because we've been at it for far longer than everybody else. As we go through our normal process, we update our estimates to manage that water return challenge. And specifically, this year, that would include incorporating higher rates of inflation on future costs in situ for up to 70-plus years into the future.

所以這個行業的每個人實際上都在專注於解決這個問題。顯然，我們的銷量比其他任何人都大，因為我們在這方面的時間比其他任何人都長得多。在我們進行正常流程時，我們會更新我們的估計以應對回水挑戰。具體來說，今年，這將包括將更高的通貨膨脹率納入未來長達 70 多年的未來成本。

So that really is the driver behind the increased ARO liability you see in the financial statements. Everybody industry has it, and that's why we're all so focused on resolving that water return challenge with governments and our peers.

因此，這確實是您在財務報表中看到的 ARO 負債增加背後的驅動因素。每個行業都有它，這就是為什麼我們都如此專注於與政府和我們的同行一起解決回水挑戰。

Just to be clear, Alister, for clarification, what's the cash out, the cadence of the cash out for that incremental liability?

Alister，澄清一下，現金支出是多少，現金支出的節奏是多少？

Yes. Most of that, Doug, will come in after mine closure and ranges from sort of late 2030s to 2070 to 2080.

是的。道格，其中大部分將在礦山關閉後出現，範圍從 2030 年代後期到 2070 年到 2080 年不等。

So it's very long dated...

所以它的日期很長...

Very long dated and there's no near-term increase in cash.

時間很長，短期內不會增加現金。

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Neil Mehta 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

I'd like to kick off here on capital returns and as you said, last couple of years, you've been aggressive in repurchasing shares and reset the dividend. Just as you look at 2023, can you give us a sense of how much capital can be returned to shareholders and with commodity prices coming off a little bit, what's your confidence interval about making that pivot to 75% from 50% of cash back?

我想從資本回報開始，正如你所說，過去幾年，你一直在積極回購股票並重新設置股息。就像您展望 2023 年一樣，您能否告訴我們可以向股東返還多少資本以及商品價格略有下降，您將現金返還從 50% 轉向 75% 的置信區間是多少？

Thanks for the question, Neil. So our view is that we're still in a constructive pricing environment, obviously, not going to be what we saw in terms of the records of 2022. But we feel that what we see right now in the pricing environment, assuming it continues to hold through the balance of the year and our own operational plans. Our intent is to pivot to the 75%-25% here towards the end of Q2 -- sorry, end of Q1. And as we're starting to see the debt start to get even closer to those long-term targets that we set out quite a while ago. As you know, we've made a lot of progress on those debt targets relative to where we thought they would have been 18 months ago. And so right now, our plan is to continue to move to that 75%-25% in that time frame unless something radically changes in the business environment.

謝謝你的問題，尼爾。因此，我們的觀點是，我們仍處於建設性的定價環境中，顯然，不會像我們在 2022 年的記錄中看到的那樣。但我們認為，我們現在在定價環境中看到的情況，假設它繼續堅持今年的餘額和我們自己的運營計劃。我們的意圖是在第二季度末將這裡的 75%-25% 調整為 - 抱歉，第一季度末。隨著我們開始看到債務開始越來越接近我們很久以前設定的那些長期目標。如您所知，相對於我們 18 個月前的預期，我們在這些債務目標方面取得了很大進展。所以現在，我們的計劃是在那個時間段內繼續提高到 75%-25%，除非商業環境發生根本性變化。

Yes. And the follow-up is around the safety journey that you're on. Maybe you could spend some time, Kris, talking about your perspective on that, how can we as an investment community evaluate where you are in that movement back towards where you want to be? And any comments around Commerce City as it relates to that as well?

是的。後續行動圍繞您正在進行的安全之旅展開。 Kris，也許你可以花點時間談談你對此的看法，作為一個投資界，我們如何評估你在回到你想要的位置的過程中所處的位置？還有關於商業城的任何評論，因為它也與此相關嗎？

Right. Thanks, Neil. I would say I've been very pleased with how the organization responded to safety, particularly since I've taken on the interim CEO role. The entire operations organization led by the senior operating team, many of them or a number of them are sitting here with me on this call today. We put in place a very defined and specific and focused safety improvement plan, one that is reinvigorating and driving our focus on our operational excellence management system and operational risk management.

正確的。謝謝，尼爾。我想說的是，我對組織對安全的反應方式非常滿意，尤其是在我擔任臨時首席執行官之後。由高級運營團隊領導的整個運營組織，他們中的許多人或其中的許多人今天都和我一起坐在這裡參加這個電話會議。我們制定了一個非常明確、具體和重點突出的安全改進計劃，該計劃正在重振和推動我們對卓越運營管理系統和運營風險管理的關注。

That's engaging with our frontline. We are rolling out human organizational performance principles. We've been engaging with the organization on those actively over the last number of months, as well as Peter has talked about in the past, some of the safety technology investments we're making around the specific risk areas that we saw in the last 2 years that have led to tragic fatality incidents.

那就是與我們的前線接觸。我們正在推出人類組織績效原則。在過去的幾個月裡，我們一直在積極地與組織合作，正如彼得過去談到的那樣，我們圍繞我們在上次看到的特定風險領域進行的一些安全技術投資2 年導致了悲慘的死亡事件。

I'm encouraged by what I've seen over the last 6 months. I'm always -- I always say, this is a journey, and you don't measure this thing in days and months. But what I would say is since I've taken the interim CEO role, I've been pleased with the direction I've seen in safety performance, both in personal safety and process safety. And we've seen a reduction in the number of incidents over that period of time. But again, this focus has to continue. It has to -- it's a daily focus for this organization.

我對過去 6 個月的所見所聞感到鼓舞。我總是——我總是說，這是一段旅程，你不會用幾天或幾個月來衡量這件事。但我要說的是，自從我擔任臨時首席執行官以來，我對我在安全績效方面看到的方向感到滿意，包括人身安全和過程安全。我們看到在那段時間裡事件的數量有所減少。但同樣，這種關注必須繼續下去。它必須——這是該組織的日常工作重點。

For investors, I mean how you measure that, obviously, is in results at the end of the day. But what I can assure you and all our investors is that the focus of this operating team is squarely on safety first in this organization.

對於投資者來說，我的意思是你如何衡量這一點，顯然，是在一天結束時的結果。但我可以向你和我們所有的投資者保證，這個運營團隊的重點完全是這個組織的安全第一。

And let me talk about Commerce City. I think it's a great question you just asked, Neil, about Commerce City and in the aspect of safety. So we had an extreme weather incident in December. Everyone saw the impact of the entire refining industry during that period of time. Our own facility was significantly impacted by that extreme weather. And we had a number of equipment failures and some loss containments. And the team, the operating team down there took the measure to put that facility in safe mode and take the right steps to save that facility and ensure that it is in -- that we have it in a state and condition that we can operate as safely going forward.

讓我談談商業城。尼爾，我認為你剛才問的是關於商業城和安全方面的一個很好的問題。所以我們在 12 月發生了極端天氣事件。所有人都看到了那段時間整個煉化行業的影響。我們自己的設施受到極端天氣的嚴重影響。我們遇到了一些設備故障和一些損失控制。那裡的團隊，運營團隊採取措施將該設施置於安全模式，並採取正確的步驟來保存該設施並確保它處於 - 我們擁有它的狀態和條件，我們可以作為安全地前進。

I've been incredibly pleased and proud of the work that the team has done down there in terms of the full inspection and repair of the facility. We've already started the progressive restart of the facility and are on track with where we expect it to be. But to me, that's an example, while no one likes to see incidents like that as an example of how an organization responds when it comes to safely managing your assets.

我為團隊在設施的全面檢查和維修方面所做的工作感到無比高興和自豪。我們已經開始逐步重啟該設施，並且正在按照我們的預期進行。但對我來說，這只是一個例子，雖然沒有人喜歡將此類事件視為組織在安全管理資產時如何應對的例子。

And our next question comes from the line of Menno Hulshof with TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Menno Hulshof。

I'll start with the base mine extension since it ties into some of the other questions that were asked previously. My understanding is that a decision on sanctioning the extension to address mine depletion versus leaning more on in situ production to keep the upgraders full is still expected by 2025. But maybe you could just give us your latest thoughts on the various options and what you consider most likely at this stage?

我將從 base mine extension 開始，因為它與之前提出的其他一些問題有關。我的理解是，到 2025 年仍有望決定批准擴建以解決礦山枯竭問題，而不是更多地依靠現場生產以保持升級器滿載。但也許您可以向我們介紹您對各種選擇的最新想法以及您的考慮最有可能在這個階段？

Thanks, Menno. Yes, as you point out, I mean, our baseline end of mine life in the mid-2030s. And so we're working through various options for replacement of that bitumen supply. Our focus is primarily in those upgraders full. We do have a number of options. You just outlined a couple of them in your question. We do have the base mine extension application in place. We're continuing with that application but it is not our only alternative or option. We do have the option, which we're also progressing around further in situ development, just east of the -- of our base plant contiguous to our current mine operations is both our Lewis lease as well as Firebag, which also has significant resource left. Too early to call in terms of which horse is in the lead race, but those options are both being worked very hard.

謝謝，門諾。是的，正如你指出的那樣，我的意思是，我們的基準壽命在 2030 年代中期結束。因此，我們正在研究各種替代瀝青供應的選擇。我們的重點主要放在那些完全升級者身上。我們確實有很多選擇。您剛剛在問題中概述了其中的幾個。我們確實有基礎礦山擴展應用程序。我們將繼續該應用程序，但它不是我們唯一的選擇或選擇。我們確實有選擇權，我們也在圍繞進一步的原地開發取得進展，就在我們的基地工廠的東邊，與我們目前的礦山業務相鄰的是我們的 Lewis 租約和 Firebag，它也有大量資源剩餘.現在判斷哪匹馬處於領先地位還為時過早，但這些選擇都在非常努力地進行中。

And the other piece I'd mention as well and kind of back to early on the call, we talked about the connectivity amongst the operations and our ability to bring bitumen into the upgrader from Fort Hills now. It's 60,000 barrels a day or sorry, 40,000 barrels a day of capacity that can be further increased and as well we can bring more Firebag in. So we have lots of optionality in terms of bitumen supply and the upgrader. The team is working hard on all of those options. It's all about what's going to be the most economic and risk-based option that we're going to supply that upgrader. I expect over the next 24 months, we're going to start landing on which option is going to be the lead horse.

我也提到了另一件事情，有點回到了電話會議的早期，我們談到了操作之間的連接性以及我們現在將瀝青從 Fort Hills 帶入升級器的能力。這是每天 60,000 桶或對不起，每天 40,000 桶的產能可以進一步增加，我們也可以引入更多的 Firebag。所以我們在瀝青供應和升級方面有很多選擇。該團隊正在努力研究所有這些選項。這一切都是關於我們將提供該升級程序的最經濟和基於風險的選擇。我預計在接下來的 24 個月內，我們將開始確定哪個選項將成為領頭馬。

Terrific. And so maybe I'll just pivot to the macro with the question on diesel. We've obviously seen crash, come down quite a bit over the last several weeks. So what is your read on this pull back. What are your expectations for Canadian diesel tracks over the midterm? And maybe you could just remind us of how much flex you have on dialing the products slate up and down for distillates across your 4 refineries?

了不起。因此，也許我會以柴油問題為中心轉向宏觀。我們顯然已經看到了崩潰，在過去幾週內下降了很多。那麼你對這次回調有何看法？您對中期的加拿大柴油軌道有何期望？也許您可以提醒我們，您在調整 4 家煉油廠的餾分油產品種類時有多大的靈活性？

Sure. And remember too, as well, Menno, when we think about diesel, we think about it in 2 aspects as well. There's our refining business, which we are tooled, we're more at 211. We're not a 321 refining network, which is great. And it does give us some flexibility to tool up a bit more to diesel. But also recall, too, in terms of our synthetic crude oil and our diesel make up in our Oil Sands business. So certainly, we're levered to the side of distillate rather than gasoline across the whole system.

當然。還要記住，Menno，當我們考慮柴油時，我們也會從兩個方面考慮它。我們的煉油業務是我們的工具，我們更多的是 211。我們不是 321 煉油網絡，這很好。它確實給了我們一些靈活性，可以為柴油機配備更多工具。但也請記住，就我們的合成原油和我們的油砂業務中的柴油構成而言。因此，可以肯定的是，我們在整個系統中都傾向於餾出物而不是汽油。

The view on diesel, I mean, certainly, not expecting that we're going to see the extraordinary cracking margins that we saw in 2022. But our expectation is we're still going to see a very robust distillate market. We're still seeing good demand on distillate even though it pulled back slightly here, recently. But still, I think the structural foundation for strong distillate tracks is still there. That's the expectation that we're going to see through the balance of the year.

對柴油的看法，我的意思是，當然，我們不會期望我們會看到我們在 2022 年看到的非凡的裂解利潤率。但我們的期望是我們仍然會看到一個非常強勁的餾分油市場。我們仍然看到對餾分油的良好需求，儘管它最近在這里略有回落。但是，我認為強大的餾分油軌道的結構基礎仍然存在。這是我們將在今年餘下時間看到的期望。

And if you just look at global inventories and demand. I think gasoline, gasoline has actually strengthened a little bit. It really came off at the end of Q4, not a surprise given the seasonality of that. But gasoline, we think the cracking margin should be at around historical norms. I don't see a big, big pullback on gasoline. But the story, I think, in 2023 is going to continue to be distillate and it's going to still be very supportive of both the downstream business as well as our diesel make out of Oil Sands.

如果你只看全球庫存和需求。我認為汽油，汽油實際上已經加強了一點。它真的在第四季度末出現，考慮到它的季節性，這不足為奇。但是汽油，我們認為裂化率應該在歷史標準附近。我看不到汽油價格會大幅回落。但我認為，到 2023 年，這個故事將繼續是餾分油，它仍然會非常支持下游業務以及我們用油砂生產的柴油。

And our next question comes from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Roger Read 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

Yes. Maybe just dig in a little bit here on an operational question. Looking at 2 things in the Oil Sands, kind of your thoughts on what we should expect in terms of royalties? And then what you are looking at in a way of sort of cash OpEx. I know higher fuel prices have an impact. But just what are some of the thoughts in terms of cash operating costs, underlying inflation and what you can do to push back against that?

是的。也許只是在這裡深入探討一個操作問題。看看油砂中的兩件事，你對我們在特許權使用費方面應該期待什麼有什麼看法？然後你正在以一種現金運營支出的方式看待什麼。我知道更高的燃油價格會產生影響。但是，在現金運營成本、潛在通貨膨脹方面有哪些想法，以及您可以採取哪些措施來抵制這種情況？

Sure. Thanks, Roger. On royalties, I think we're going to continue to see royalties were in post payout in some of the assets, but pre-payout in others. Expect royalty is going to be less than '22 versus 20 -- or '23 versus '22 just because of where we're going to see commodity price. But I expect we're still going to have a healthy royalty remittance back to the province.

當然。謝謝，羅傑。關於特許權使用費，我認為我們將繼續看到特許權使用費在某些資產中處於支付後，但在其他資產中處於支付前。預計特許權使用費將低於 22 年對 20 年——或者 23 年對 22 年，因為我們將在哪裡看到商品價格。但我預計我們仍會將健康的特許權使用費匯回該省。

On the cash operating cost, I mean, we're obviously incredibly focused on that. When I was at our Investor Day, we talked about the cash operating costs and the impacts both of where we're at structurally with our mine plans in 2023. The mine improvement plan in Fort Hills as well as where we're at in Syncrude just in its mine cycle in 2023, which is adding some additional costs, which we're going to be working through this year and expect that to go in the right direction as we head into next year.

關於現金運營成本，我的意思是，我們顯然非常關注這一點。當我在投資者日時，我們談到了現金運營成本以及我們在結構上對 2023 年礦山計劃所處位置的影響。Fort Hills 的礦山改善計劃以及我們在 Syncrude 的位置就在 2023 年的礦山週期中，這增加了一些額外成本，我們將在今年努力解決這些問題，並希望在我們進入明年時朝著正確的方向發展。

But as well, we've been seeing inflation, but not in any way that we haven't expected it. And the team has been doing a lot of work, trying to go back to what we talked about earlier in terms of the contractor reductions, but doing a lot of work to, first of all, offset that inflation wherever we can and drive the costs further down. We set the guidance range for 2023 and communicated that at the Investor Day. We're focused on delivering those costs within that guidance range or below.

但同樣，我們一直在看到通貨膨脹，但並非以我們沒有預料到的任何方式。該團隊一直在做很多工作，試圖回到我們之前談到的減少承包商的情況，但做了大量工作首先是盡可能地抵消通貨膨脹並降低成本再向下。我們設定了 2023 年的指導範圍，並在投資者日傳達了這一點。我們專注於在該指導範圍內或以下提供這些成本。

And I think one of the things on inflation, certainly, we saw extreme inflation into the back half of last year, seeing some of it come in -- we've seen it continue into 2023, but it's starting to mitigate a bit too. And hopefully, we're going to continue to see inflation sort of start to temper itself as we move into the balance of the year.

我認為其中一個關於通貨膨脹的事情，當然，我們在去年下半年看到了極端通貨膨脹，看到其中一些出現了——我們已經看到它持續到 2023 年，但它也開始有所緩解。希望隨著我們進入今年的餘額，我們將繼續看到通貨膨脹開始緩和。

And can you quantify at all what part of that is related to kind of underlying fuel costs? Or what sort of offset you might get there?

你能量化其中哪一部分與潛在燃料成本有關嗎？或者你可能會得到什麼樣的抵消？

Yes, I'd say the inflation where we're seeing inflation is on the labor side contractors. And that's why it's one of the areas we've been incredibly focused on. It's that inflationary pressure is coming in wages and labor costs. We were seeing it in supplies and materials, but that's starting to come off a bit. I've seen the steel prices inflation starting to really cool on steel. In terms of fuel, I mean, look at commodity costs, I mean, certainly, it's been helpful where we've seen gas prices trend here. They're a lot lower than what our expectation would have been going into this year. But just the -- as you would know, just seeing what's going on with global -- with just temperatures, a warm winter and supply -- and oversupply of natural gas in North America, that's been a nice surprise for our business, and there will be a bit of a tailwind on the cost side.

是的，我會說我們看到的通貨膨脹是在勞動力方面的承包商身上。這就是為什麼它是我們一直非常關注的領域之一。就是工資和勞動力成本上的通貨膨脹壓力。我們在供應品和材料中看到了它，但這種情況開始有所減少。我已經看到鋼鐵價格通脹開始真正降溫。在燃料方面，我的意思是，看看商品成本，我的意思是，當然，我們在這裡看到天然氣價格趨勢是有幫助的。它們比我們今年的預期要低很多。但是，正如你所知，看看全球正在發生什麼——只有氣溫、溫暖的冬天和供應——以及北美的天然氣供應過剩，這對我們的業務來說是一個很好的驚喜，而且那裡在成本方面將有點順風。

Okay. And then the unrelated follow-up, it's -- we're all well aware you remain the interim CEO. Any updates on the timing for removing that tag?

好的。然後是不相關的後續行動——我們都知道你仍然是臨時首席執行官。關於刪除該標籤的時間有任何更新嗎？

Yes. Thanks. No, I'm not in a position to make an announcement on this call. And I'll say what I said before. The Board is going through a very diligent process, ensuring that they make the decision that's going to take this company forward. Expect the decision is going to be very soon. It's been communicated in the past that decision is expected in mid-February. I mean, we're sitting here at February 15. So I expect the decision and the announcement will be coming fairly soon.

是的。謝謝。不，我無法就此電話會議發表聲明。我會說我之前說過的話。董事會正在經歷一個非常勤奮的過程，以確保他們做出將推動這家公司向前發展的決定。預計很快就會做出決定。過去曾有消息稱，預計將在 2 月中旬做出決定。我的意思是，我們在 2 月 15 日坐在這裡。所以我希望很快就會做出決定和宣布。

Yes, I appreciate that. I'm not real good at math, but it struck me the 15th was mid-February.

是的，我很感激。我不是很擅長數學，但令我震驚的是 15 日是二月中旬。

Our next question comes from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So just a follow-up on Neil's first question on capital allocation, and I just wanted to make sure I understand. You're at about $13.5 billion of net debt today. Are you talking about possibly going to the 75% tier before you hit the $12 billion level? Or is there an expectation that you'll be delevering by $1.5 billion in 1Q? And if it's the latter, maybe you can go through some of those drivers of deleverage? I know you're closing the wind and solar assets, but then you should have the stake increase in Fort Hills going the other way. So just anything on those drivers.

所以只是跟進尼爾關於資本配置的第一個問題，我只是想確保我理解。你今天的淨債務約為 135 億美元。你是在談論在達到 120 億美元水平之前可能達到 75% 的水平嗎？還是預計第一季度您將去槓桿化 15 億美元？如果是後者，也許你可以通過一些去槓桿化的驅動因素？我知道你正在關閉風能和太陽能資產，但你應該讓 Fort Hills 的股份增加以相反的方式進行。所以這些驅動程序上的任何東西。

John, I'll take that one. I said before that I'm going to look through any FX impacts to get to the $12 billion, included in the $13.4 billion is about $750 million of FX impacts from a weaker Canadian dollar compared to when we set the targets. So I would take that also, and we fully expect to be close to the $12 billion or close enough to the $12 billion ex-FX by the end of Q1.

約翰，我要那個。我之前說過，我將研究任何外匯影響，以達到 120 億美元，包括在 134 億美元中的大約 7.5 億美元的外匯影響來自與我們設定目標時相比疲軟的加元。所以我也接受這一點，我們完全預計到第一季度末將接近 120 億美元或足夠接近 120 億美元（不含外匯）。

There is some noise around, as you mentioned, the timing of closing Fort Hills, we had assumed it would be in the beginning of Q2 and much up with the sale of the U.K. assets in that quarter. There'll be some noise around that. Obviously, it's a close Fort Hills earlier, but we expect to move the beginning of Q2 to 75%, 25%.

正如您所提到的，關閉 Fort Hills 的時間存在一些噪音，我們原以為它會在第二季度初，並且在該季度出售英國資產。周圍會有一些噪音。顯然，這是早些時候接近 Fort Hills，但我們預計將在第二季度開始時將其提高到 75%、25%。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe you could talk about the optimization you guys are doing in retail and specifically the things you're doing around mix for operated versus nonoperated stores? Just a little bit of color there would be helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許你可以談談你們在零售業所做的優化，特別是你們在經營和非經營商店的混合方面所做的事情？只要一點點顏色會有幫助。

Sure. Thanks, John. So what we're doing with our -- the retail business and outlined in Investor Day. We're optimizing our national network. It is a mix of controlled and noncontrolled. It's about 50-50 just for round numbers. What we're doing is we're focusing our investment on high-volume, high-value sites in core markets. When we put those types of investments in place, we've seen terrific results within the network.

當然。謝謝，約翰。所以我們正在做的事情 - 零售業務並在投資者日概述。我們正在優化我們的國家網絡。它是受控和非受控的混合體。僅對於整數，大約是 50-50。我們正在做的是將我們的投資集中在核心市場的高容量、高價值網站上。當我們進行這些類型的投資時，我們在網絡中看到了極好的結果。

While at the same time, we're looking to optimize and rationalize those pieces of the network that are less core. And so that will be rationalizing nonperforming sites as well as moving sites that are in noncore markets out of control and into the noncontrolled channel as well. And so that will allow us to focus our controlled network on those core markets in those high volume, high-volume sites.

與此同時，我們正在尋求優化和合理化那些不太核心的網絡部分。因此，這將對錶現不佳的網站進行合理化處理，並將非核心市場中失控的網站也轉移到不受控制的渠道中。因此，這將使我們能夠將我們的控製網絡集中在那些高容量、高容量站點的核心市場上。

And so that plan is now underway. It's a 5-year plan that we laid out when we talked about it in Investor Day and the team is focused on delivering it.

所以這個計劃現在正在進行中。這是我們在投資者日討論時制定的 5 年計劃，團隊正專注於實現它。

I'll now hand the call back over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Troy Little for any closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給投資者關係副總裁 Troy Little，聽取任何結束語。

Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. Please don't hesitate to contact us should you have any questions. With that, operator, you can end the call.

謝謝接線員，也感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。有了它，接線員，你就可以結束通話了。

Thank you for participating. This concludes today's program, and you may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。今天的節目到此結束，您現在可以斷開連接了。