希捷科技 (STX) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Seagate Technology Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Tabitha, and I'll be your coordinator for today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes only. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Shanye Hudson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury. Please proceed, Shanye.

    早安,歡迎參加希捷科技2021財年第四季及全年財務業績電話會議。我是今天的會議協調員,塔比莎。 (操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議將進行錄音,僅供回放之用。現在,我將把電話交給投資者關係與財務高級副總裁珊妮·哈德森女士。珊妮,請開始。

  • Shanye Hudson - VP of IR

    Shanye Hudson - VP of IR

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to today's call. Joining me are Dave Mosley, Seagate's Chief Executive Officer; and Gianluca Romano, our Chief Financial Officer. We posted our earnings press release and detailed supplemental information for our June quarter and fiscal year 2021 on the Investors section of our website.

    謝謝大家。下午好,歡迎參加今天的電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有希捷執行長戴夫‧莫斯利 (Dave Mosley) 和財務長詹盧卡‧羅馬諾 (Gianluca Romano)。我們已在本公司網站的投資者關係頁面發布了2021財年第二季和全年的獲利新聞稿及詳細補充資訊。

  • During today's call, we will refer to GAAP and non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures are reconciled to GAAP figures in the earnings press release posted on our website and included in our Form 8-K that was filed with the SEC. We do not reconcile certain non-GAAP outlook measures because material items that may impact these measures are out of our control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted. Therefore, a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP measures is not available without unreasonable efforts.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。非GAAP財務數據已在公司網站發布的盈利新聞稿以及提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的8-K表格中與GAAP財務數據進行了核對。我們不會對某些非GAAP展望性財務指標進行核對,因為可能影響這些指標的重大項目超出我們的控制範圍和/或無法合理預測。因此,若要提供與對應GAAP財務指標的核對結果,則需要付出不合理的努力。

  • As a reminder, this call contains forward-looking statements, including our September quarter financial outlook and expectations about our financial performance, market demand, industry growth trends, planned product introductions, ability to ramp production, future growth opportunities, possible effects of the economic conditions worldwide resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and general market conditions.

    提醒各位,本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,包括我們對 9 月份季度財務展望以及對財務業績、市場需求、行業增長趨勢、計劃推出的產品、產能提升能力、未來增長機會、COVID-19 疫情對全球經濟狀況可能產生的影響以及總體市場狀況的預期。

  • These statements are based on management's current views and assumptions and information available to us as of today should not be relied upon as of any subsequent date. Actual results may vary materially from today's statements. Information concerning our risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause results to differ from these forward-looking statements are contained in our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC, our Form 8-K filed with the SEC today and in supplemental information posted on the Investors section of our website. As always, following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for questions.

    這些聲明是基於管理階層目前的觀點和假設,且截至今日我們所掌握的資訊不應被視為對任何後續日期的依據。實際結果可能與今日的聲明有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性聲明存在差異的風險、不確定性及其他因素的信息,請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的10-K表和10-Q表、我們今天向SEC提交的8-K表以及我們網站“投資者關係”專欄發布的補充信息。像往常一樣,在準備好的演講結束後,我們將開放問答環節。

  • I'll now turn the call over to you, Dave.

    現在我把電話交給你,戴夫。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Shanye, and a warm welcome to everyone joining us today. Seagate ended fiscal 2021 on a strong note, delivering an outstanding June quarter performance and fiscal year revenue that exceeded expectations. These results reflect broad-based demand across the mass capacity end markets and incredible execution by our global team, which together led a faster than anticipated progress toward our long-term financial targets.

    謝謝Shanye,也熱烈歡迎今天到場的各位。希捷2021財年以強勁的勢頭完美收官,第二季業績表現出色,全年營收也超乎預期。這些業績反映了大容量終端市場的廣泛需求,以及我們全球團隊的出色執行力,正是這些因素共同推動我們以超出預期的速度朝著長期財務目標邁進。

  • In the June quarter, revenue topped the $3 billion mark for the first time in 6 years, and we delivered non-GAAP EPS of $2 per share, which was at the top most end of the upwardly revised guidance range that we provided in early June.

    在 6 月的季度中,收入 6 年來首次突破 30 億美元大關,非 GAAP 每股收益為 2 美元,這處於我們在 6 月初提供的向上修訂的指導範圍的上限。

  • Additionally, we expanded non-GAAP gross margin to 29.6% and expect to be inside our long-term target range of 30% to 33% ahead of schedule. The demand strength and favorable mix has accelerated the time frame to achieve better supply-demand equilibrium, which is supporting firmer pricing conditions. We are reporting these exceptional results at the time of optimism in parts of the world as vaccinations progress and economies begin to reopen. In fact, we are hosting today's call from Dublin for the first time in 6 quarters. While the pandemic remains a difficult reality for many parts of the world, and we remain vigilant in continuing to manage the business through this period, it is clear to macro level that recovery is underway in the markets that we serve.

    此外,我們的非GAAP毛利率提升至29.6%,預計將提前達到30%至33%的長期目標區間。強勁的需求和有利的產品組合加速了供需平衡的實現,從而支撐了更穩健的價格環境。在全球部分地區疫苗接種進展順利、經濟開始重啟之際,我們公佈了這些卓越的業績。事實上,這是我們六個季度以來首次在都柏林召開電話會議。儘管疫情對世界許多地區而言仍然是嚴峻的現實,我們也將繼續保持警惕,妥善管理業務,但從宏觀層面來看,我們所服務的市場顯然正在復甦。

  • Seagate is entering this recovery period in a very strong position, helped by the fact that we executed incredibly well throughout the crisis. For fiscal year '21, we generated nearly 2% year-over-year revenue growth, exceeding our expectations. We grew operating profits faster than sales and achieved operating margin of 15.4% for the year, showing the leverage in the business, and we returned substantial amount of capital to shareholders, including $2.7 billion in dividends and share repurchases, retiring more than 13% of our outstanding shares in fiscal 2021.

    希捷正以非常強勁的勢頭進入復甦期,這得益於我們在整個危機期間的出色執行。 2021財年,我們的營收年增近2%,超出預期。我們的營業利潤成長速度超過銷售額成長速度,全年營業利潤率達到15.4%,充分展現了業務的槓桿效應。此外,我們也向股東返還了大量資本,包括27億美元的股利和股票回購,在2021財年回購了超過13%的流通股。

  • In addition to recording strong financial results, our innovation engine has not slowed down. We extended our HDD technology leadership as evidenced by Seagate being the first company to commercialize HAMR technology and the first to deliver dual actuator performance drives, which are now shipping in high-volume to support multiple customers.

    除了取得強勁的財務業績外,我們的創新引擎也從未放緩。我們進一步鞏固了在硬碟(HDD)技術領域的領先地位,希捷率先將HAMR技術商業化,並率先推出雙驅動器高效能硬碟,實際上這些硬碟已實現大規模出貨,為眾多客戶提供支援。

  • We leveraged our areal density gains to streamline our product road map, making us better able to meet changing customer demand requirements while maintaining an attractive cost profile. We also leveraged the strength of our common mass capacity platform to execute our 18-terabyte ramp plans to meet customer demand. We expect to begin shipping 20-terabyte PMR drives in the second half of this calendar year.

    我們利用面密度優勢優化了產品路線圖,從而更好地滿足不斷變化的客戶需求,同時保持了具有競爭力的成本優勢。此外,我們也利用一般大容量平台的優勢,推動了18TB產能爬坡計劃,以滿足客戶需求。我們預計今年下半年開始出貨20TB PMR硬碟。

  • Finally, we expanded our product and service offerings with the launch of Lyve edge-to-cloud platforms and remain on track with the build-out of our 4 Lyve Cloud metro edge locations by calendar year-end.

    最後,我們透過推出 Lyve 邊緣到雲端平台擴展了我們的產品和服務,並繼續按計劃在年底前建成我們的 4 個 Lyve Cloud 城域邊緣位置。

  • A year ago, when the business challenges posed by the pandemic were very acute, I made the statement that Seagate would emerge from the crisis stronger than ever. With the financial performance and innovations that I've just highlighted, I believe that our team has delivered on that claim and that Seagate is stronger than ever.

    一年前,當疫情帶來的商業挑戰異常嚴峻時,我曾說過希捷將從危機中復甦,並且比以往任何時候都更強大。憑藉我剛才提到的財務表現和創新成果,我相信我們的團隊已經兌現了這項承諾,希捷現在比以往任何時候都更強大。

  • We are continuing to focus on unlocking more value for our customers and shareholders. For example, last month, we introduced CORVAULT to our family of cost efficient, high-density storage systems. CORVAULT combines Seagate's internally designed storage system basics with our intelligent self-healing software and data security technologies, which results in a high reliability storage solution at petabyte scale, ideal for private cloud and macro edge data centers.

    我們將繼續致力於為客戶和股東創造更多價值。例如,上個月,我們推出了 CORVAULT,進一步豐富了我們經濟高效、高密度儲存系統的產品線。 CORVAULT 融合了希捷自主研發的儲存系統基礎架構、智慧自癒軟體和資料安全技術,打造出 PB 級高可靠性儲存解決方案,是私有雲和宏觀邊緣資料中心的理想之選。

  • We are also working directly with customers to unlock value. Many of our hyperscale customers already employ AI and machine learning to reduce the amount of human intervention necessary to maintain and repair their large fleets of storage drives. We recently teamed with Google Cloud to take data intelligence one step further. Together, we developed models that help predict drive failures before they occur. These models promise the lower operational costs and prevent potential problems to their end users, a clear win-win.

    我們也直接與客戶合作,挖掘價值。許多超大規模客戶已經採用人工智慧和機器學習技術,以減少維護和維修其龐大儲存設備群所需的人工幹預。我們最近與Google雲端合作,將數據智慧提升到一個新的高度。我們共同開發了能夠預測硬碟故障的模型,這些模型有望降低營運成本,並預防最終用戶可能遇到的問題,實現雙贏。

  • Let's turn now to the current market environment, starting with an area that has garnered significant interest in recent weeks. Storage-centric blockchains, such as those by Filecoin for decentralized storage applications or Chia cryptocurrency, which is considered an environmentally friendly alternative to other blockchains that utilize energy-intensive computational power to validate transactions have significant interest.

    現在讓我們來看看當前的市場環境,首先來看一個近幾週來備受關注的領域。以儲存為中心的區塊鏈,例如Filecoin用於去中心化儲存應用的區塊鏈,或被認為是環保型的Chia加密貨幣(它取代了其他使用高能耗運算能力來驗證交易的區塊鏈),都引起了人們的極大興趣。

  • During the June quarter, we saw a meaningful increase in HDD demand due in part to the initial build-out of the Chia net space, which is comprised of both new and repurposed HDDs. By our estimation, new Chia demand represented at most a mid- single-digit percentage of total industry exabyte shipments during the quarter, primarily into the distribution channel. This incremental demand served to tighten HDD supply dynamics in an increasingly robust demand environment. While the future growth outlook in this space remains unclear, we are excited by the potential applications associated with innovations in decentralized file storage.

    在六月的季度中,我們觀察到硬碟需求顯著增長,部分原因是 Chia 網路空間的初步構建,該空間由全新和翻新的硬碟組成。據我們估計,當季 Chia 的新增需求最多僅佔業界總 EB 級出貨量的個位數百分比,主要流入分銷管道。這項新增需求在日益強勁的需求環境下加劇了硬碟供應的緊張局面。儘管該領域的未來成長前景尚不明朗,但我們對去中心化文件儲存創新帶來的潛在應用感到振奮。

  • For Seagate, strong growth in the traditional mass capacity market remains the primary driver of HDD demand. In the June quarter, mass capacity represented close to 70% of Seagate's HDD revenue, supported by broad-based demand for our nearline drives and the third consecutive quarter of sales growth into both cloud and enterprise customers.

    對希捷而言,傳統大容量硬碟市場的強勁成長仍然是硬碟需求的主要驅動力。在6月的季度中,大容量硬碟佔希捷硬碟營收的近70%,這得益於市場對近線硬碟的廣泛需求,以及面向雲端和企業客戶的銷售額連續第三個季度實現成長。

  • Cloud data center demand has remained healthy and steady for the last 18 months, and current indicators suggest that, that trend will continue. While it's clear that the pandemic played a big role in accelerating digital transformation, hyperscale industry leaders expect the digital adoption curve to continue accelerating even as COVID recedes. At the same time, businesses are preparing for employees to return to the workplace, which is reinvigorating on-prem IT infrastructure investments and supporting ongoing recovery in the enterprise markets.

    過去18個月,雲端資料中心的需求一直保持健康穩定,目前的跡象表明,這一趨勢還會繼續。雖然疫情無疑在加速數位轉型方面發揮了重要作用,但超大規模資料中心產業的領導者預計,即使疫情消退,數位普及的速度仍將繼續加快。同時,企業正在為員工重返工作場所做準備,這重新激發了企業對本地IT基礎設施的投資,並支持企業市場的持續復甦。

  • We also experienced stronger-than-anticipated recovery in the VIA markets during the quarter, due in part to tighter supply conditions. We currently foresee relatively stable demand through the second half of the calendar year. Looking ahead, secular demand for mass capacity data, combined with signs of macro recovery represent significant opportunities for Seagate and set the stage for continued strong financial performance and cash flow generation. These factors, combined with our broad product portfolio, underpin our forecast to grow revenue in the high single-digit percentage range or more in fiscal 2022, which is well above our long-term financial model range.

    本季度,VIA 市場也出現了超出預期的強勁復甦,部分原因是供應趨緊。我們目前預計下半年需求將保持相對穩定。展望未來,對大容量數據的長期需求,以及宏觀經濟復甦的跡象,為希捷帶來了巨大的機遇,並為我們持續強勁的財務業績和現金流成長奠定了基礎。這些因素,加上我們廣泛的產品組合,支撐了我們對 2022 財年營收成長達到或超過兩位數百分比的預測,遠高於我們長期財務模型的預期範圍。

  • I'll now hand the call over to Gianluca to cover the financial results.

    現在我將把電話交給詹盧卡,讓他來介紹財務表現。

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Thank you, Dave. Seagate executed extremely well in the June quarter, delivering very strong top and bottom line growth, but was fueled by accelerating demand in the mass capacity market and distribution channel.

    謝謝你,戴夫。希捷在六月的季度表現非常出色,營收和利潤都實現了強勁增長,但這主要得益於大容量市場和分銷渠道需求的加速增長。

  • Revenue was $3.01 billion, up 10% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 18.1%, in the upper end of our long-term target range of 15% to 20% of revenue. And non-GAAP EPS was $2 per share, up 35% sequentially and 67% year-over-year. Ongoing demand momentum for our mass capacity products supported a third consecutive quarter of record hard disk drive capacity shipments, totaling 152 exabytes, up 9% sequentially and 20% year-on-year. More than 80% of total exabytes were shipped into the mass capacity market, which includes nearline, VIA and mass products. Mass capacity shipment is a record 123 exabytes in the June quarter, up 11% sequentially and 36% year-over-year.

    營收達30.1億美元,季增10%,年增20%。非GAAP營業利潤率提升至18.1%,處於我們長期目標區間(營收的15%至20%)的上限。非GAAP每股收益為2美元,季增35%,年增67%。市場對我們大容量硬碟產品的持續需求推動硬碟出貨量連續第三個季度創下新高,總計152艾字節,環比增長9%,同比增長20%。超過80%的總出貨量來自大容量硬碟市場,包括近線硬碟、VIA硬碟和普通硬碟。大容量硬碟出貨量在6月季度創下123艾字節的紀錄,較上季成長11%,較去年同期成長36%。

  • We are continuing to leverage our manufacturing agility and drive operational efficiencies to meet our customers' timing. Mass capacity now represents close to 70% of total HDD revenue. Further demand for our nearline drives, a strong recovery in the VIA market drove record mass capacity revenue of $1.9 billion, up 16% sequentially and up 29% compared with the prior year period.

    我們正持續發揮製造彈性,提升營運效率,以滿足客戶的交貨時間要求。目前,批量產能已佔硬碟總收入的近70%。近線硬碟需求的持續成長,以及威盛電子(VIA)市場的強勁復甦,推動批量產能收入創下19億美元的新紀錄,季增16%,較去年同期成長29%。

  • Sales of our nearline products grew strongly quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the rapid uptick in demand from storage-centric blockchains that's layered on top of healthy cloud data center demand and improving enterprise OEM customer trends that we discussed last quarter. We attribute the incremental sales of our mid- to high capacity nearline products in distribution channels to Chia Farmers, while our cloud and OEM customers consumed a majority of our high capacity supplier, including our 18 terabyte drives, which are shipping in high volume.

    我們的近線產品銷售量較上季強勁成長,這反映了以儲存為中心的區塊鏈需求的快速成長,而這又建立在健康的雲端資料中心需求和我們上季討論過的企業OEM客戶趨勢改善的基礎上。我們認為,分銷通路中高容量近線產品的增量銷售主要歸功於Chia Farmers,而我們的雲端和OEM客戶則消耗了我們供應商的大部分高容量產品,包括我們出貨量龐大的18TB硬碟。

  • Overall, nearline shipments increased to 101 exabytes, up 6% sequentially and 28% year-on-year from record levels in each of the comparable quarters. Stronger-than-expected demand in the VIA market led to a sharp sequential increase in revenue as (inaudible) and customers invested to support in future demand.

    整體而言,近線晶片出貨量增至 101 EB,季增 6%,年增 28%,均創下上一季的歷史新高。 VIA 市場需求強於預期,帶動營收季比大幅成長,客戶也加大了投資以滿足未來需求。

  • Looking ahead, we expect relatively stable demand into the second half of the calendar year. The legacy market end up well in the June quarter with revenue of $854 million compared with $864 million in both the prior quarter and the prior year period. Exabyte shipments remained relatively flat quarter-over-quarter at roughly 29 exabytes.

    展望未來,我們預計下半年需求將保持相對穩定。傳統儲存市場在6月季度表現良好,營收為8.54億美元,與上一季及去年同期的8.64億美元基本持平。 EB級儲存出貨量較上季基本持平,約29EB。

  • Ongoing demand for our mission-critical drive and better-than-expected sales of our consumer products partially offset the anticipated decline for PC drives.

    對我們關鍵任務型硬碟的持續需求以及消費性產品超出預期的銷售情況,部分抵消了個人電腦硬碟預期的下滑。

  • We expect relatively stable demand for both mission-critical and consumer drives over the next couple of quarters, which would result in more moderate year-over-year revenue decline for the overall legacy market.

    我們預計未來幾季對關鍵任務型硬碟和消費型硬碟的需求將相對穩定,這將導致整個傳統硬碟市場年比收入下降幅度較為溫和。

  • Finally, turning to our non-HDD business, revenue increased 16% sequentially and 42% year-over-year to a record $276 million. We continue to drive momentum in our system business, which offers simple and scalable petabyte solutions targeted for enterprise and private cloud customers. In the June quarter, non-GAAP gross profit increased to $892 million compared with $749 million in the March quarter and $686 million in the prior year period.

    最後,我們來看非硬碟業務,營收季增16%,年增42%,創下2.76億美元的新高。我們的系統業務持續保持成長勢頭,為企業和私有雲客戶提供簡單易用且可擴展的PB級解決方案。在6月的季度中,非GAAP毛利增加至8.92億美元,高於3月季度的7.49億美元和去年同期的6.86億美元。

  • We incurred $32 million of COVID-related costs during the quarter. Calendar year-to-date, the vast majority of these costs are attributed to elevated freight charges, which we expect to perceive through fiscal 2022. However, given the uncertainty around when or if this cost will abate, starting in fiscal Q1, we plan to stop calling them out. Our resulting non-GAAP gross margin expanded by 219 basis points to 29.6%, including slightly more than 1% headwind from COVID-related costs.

    本季我們產生了 3,200 萬美元與新冠疫情相關的成本。截至目前,這些成本絕大部分歸因於運費上漲,我們預計這種情況將持續到 2022 財年。然而,鑑於運費何時或是否會下降尚不明朗,我們計劃從第一季開始停止提列這些成本。因此,我們的非 GAAP 毛利率成長了 219 個基點,達到 29.6%,其中包括略高於 1% 的新冠疫情相關成本的不利影響。

  • Total HDD margins are already inside our target range of 30% to 33% and we now expect total company non-GAAP gross margin to be at the low end of the range in the September quarter, reflecting better alignment in supply and demand and the transition to mass capacity products that has taken place.

    HDD 總利潤率已達到我們 30% 至 33% 的目標範圍,我們現在預計公司 9 月份季度的非 GAAP 毛利率將處於該範圍的低端,這反映出供需關係的更好地協調以及向大規模產能產品的過渡。

  • Non-GAAP operating expenses came in at $346 million, up 5% sequentially, reflecting higher variable compensation associated with the strong performance. We are tightly managing expenses and expect to maintain OpEx at approximately the same level for the next few quarters. The combination of higher sales and margin expansion resulted in non-GAAP operating income of $546 million, up 30% sequentially and over 46% year-over-year.

    非GAAP營運費用為3.46億美元,較上季成長5%,主要反映了強勁業績帶來的可變薪酬增加。我們正在嚴格控制費用,預計未來幾季營運費用將維持在大致相同的水平。銷售額成長與利潤率提升共同推動非GAAP營業收入達到5.46億美元,較上季成長30%,較去年同期成長超過46%。

  • Non-GAAP operating margin was 18.1%, up 274 basis points sequentially and 330 basis points year-over-year and solidly inside our long-term target range of 15% to 20% of revenue.

    非GAAP營業利益率為18.1%,較上季成長274個基點,較去年同期成長330個基點,穩居我們15%至20%的長期目標營收範圍。

  • Based on the diluted share count of approximately 233 million shares, non-GAAP EPS for the June quarter was $2 per share, the highest level since fiscal '12. Capital expenditures were $124 million in the June quarter and just under $500 million for the fiscal year, which represents 4.7% of annual revenue, in line with our long-term target range. Through strong expense discipline and efforts to improve manufacturing efficiencies, we reduced CapEx by about 15% in fiscal 2021, exiting the year with better supply-demand balance.

    基於約2.33億股的稀釋後股份數量,6月季的非GAAP每股盈餘為2美元,創下自2012財年以來的最高水準。 6月季度資本支出為1.24億美元,本財年資本支出略低於5億美元,佔年度收入的4.7%,符合我們的長期目標範圍。透過嚴格的成本控制和提高生產效率的努力,我們在2021財年將資本支出減少了約15%,並在年底實現了更佳的供需平衡。

  • Inventory was $1.2 billion, down 6% sequentially with days inventory outstanding declining for the third consecutive quarter to 51 days. Our teams have done an outstanding job of working with our suppliers and partners to manage strategic inventory levels and mitigate supply chain disruption, including the recent COVID-related restrictions in Asia, which we continue to closely monitor. In the June quarter, we increased free cash flow to $354 million, up 29%, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    庫存為12億美元,季減6%,庫存週轉天數連續第三季下降至51天。我們的團隊與供應商和合作夥伴密切合作,出色地管理了戰略庫存水平,並有效緩解了供應鏈中斷,包括近期亞洲地區與新冠疫情相關的限制措施,我們將繼續密切關注這些措施的影響。在6月的季度中,我們的自由現金流增至3.54億美元,較上季和年比均成長29%。

  • Our focus on optimizing profitability and cash generation provides flexibility to invest in the business and return capital to our shareholders. We used $154 million to fund the quarterly dividend and $228 million to repurchase 2.6 million ordinary shares, exiting the quarter with 227 million shares outstanding and approximately $4.2 billion remaining in our authorization. We retired 34 million shares during fiscal year 2021 and returned a total of $2.7 billion through dividends and share repurchases.

    我們專注於優化獲利能力和現金流,從而能夠靈活地投資業務並向股東返還資本。我們用1.54億美元支付了季度股息,並用2.28億美元回購了260萬股普通股,截至本季末,流通股數為2.27億股,剩餘授權額度約42億美元。在2021財年,我們註銷了3,400萬股,並透過股息和股票回購共返還了27億美元。

  • Based on our current outlook, we expect to maintain a robust capital return program in fiscal 2022, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and liquidity profile. Cash and cash equivalents remained relatively stable at $1.2 billion, and total liquidity was approximately $3 billion, including our revolving credit facility. These levels are more than adequate to support our operations and business needs. As we enter fiscal 2022, the team and environment remains strong, and we continue to execute our product and technology roadmap to deliver on our customer requirements while driving value for Seagate.

    基於我們目前的展望,我們預計在2022財年將維持穩健的資本回報計劃,同時保持良好的資產負債表和流動性狀況。現金及現金等價物維持在12億美元的相對穩定水平,總流動性約為30億美元,其中包括我們的循環信貸額度。這些資金水準足以支持我們的營運和業務需求。進入2022財年,我們的團隊和環境依然強勁,我們將繼續執行產品和技術路線圖,以滿足客戶需求,同時為希捷創造價值。

  • Looking ahead to our outlook for the September quarter, we expect revenue to be in the range of $3.1 billion plus or minus $150 million. We expect non-GAAP operating profit to grow faster than sales, resulting in non-GAAP operating margin at the upper end of our long-term range of 15% to 20% of revenue, and we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $2.20 per share, plus or minus $0.15, representing a sequential growth of 10% at midpoint.

    展望9月季度,我們預計營收將在31億美元左右,上下浮動1.5億美元。我們預期非GAAP營業利潤成長速度將超過銷售額成長速度,使非GAAP營業利潤率達到我們長期預期區間(營收的15%至20%)的上限。我們預期非GAAP每股盈餘將在2.20美元左右,上下浮動0.15美元,中位數計算為季增10%。

  • In summary, we continue to achieve outstanding results supported by our unwavering focus on operational execution and the strength of our product and technology portfolio. We are already demonstrating performance consistent with our financial targets and enter fiscal '22 well positioned for top and bottom line growth.

    總而言之,憑藉我們對營運執行的堅定專注以及強大的產品和技術組合,我們持續取得卓越業績。我們目前的業績已與財務目標相符,並為2022財年的營收和利潤成長做好了充分準備。

  • I'll now turn the call back to Dave for final comments.

    現在我將把電話轉回給戴夫,請他做最後的總結演講。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Gianluca. Seagate is executing well, delivering financial performance at or above our commitments, maintaining a relentless focus on total customer experience and deploying capital to enhance value for all stakeholders. We capped fiscal '21 with our strongest performance of the year, and we expect that positive momentum to continue moving forward. We've demonstrated strong leverage in our business model to grow operating profit faster than revenue, and, in turn, drive free cash flow generation. Our ability to consistently generate free cash flow provides the flexibility to fund future growth and employ a robust shareholder return program as well.

    謝謝Gianluca。希捷營運良好,財務表現達到甚至超過了我們的預期目標,我們始終專注於提升客戶整體體驗,並積極運用資本來提升所有利害關係人的價值。 2021財年,我們取得了全年最佳業績,並預計這一積極動能將持續下去。我們的商業模式展現了強大的槓桿效應,使營業利潤成長速度超過營收成長速度,進而推動了自由現金流的產生。我們持續產生自由現金流的能力,使我們能夠靈活地為未來的成長提供資金,並實施穩健的股東回報計劃。

  • Based on the current outlook, we expect to grow free cash flow appreciably in fiscal 2022. Our employees have been crucial to Seagate's current success and key to driving our future. Over our 40-year history, Seagate has transitioned many times to address the evolving storage industry landscape. For example, we've recently pivoted our factories and technology to deliver mass capacity solutions and have emerged a leader.

    基於目前的展望,我們預期2022財年自由現金流將顯著成長。員工是希捷目前成功的關鍵,也是推動我們未來發展的核心力量。在40年的發展歷程中,希捷多次轉型以適應不斷變化的儲存產業格局。例如,我們近期調整了工廠和技術佈局,以提供大容量解決方案,並已成為行業領導者。

  • Now we are focused on addressing the next mass data challenge with our Lyve product platform. To keep pace with these changes, we are investing to reskill and redeploy Seagate employees as needed to support our future growth and respond to changing demands of the business. For example, we launched a tool called Career Discovery earlier this year, which has already helped Seagate to establish networking and mentor connections as well as redeployment opportunities for hundreds of employees. Seagate has a broad bench of talent with decades of hardware and software experience, formidable supply chain management and manufacturing skills and deep knowledge of chip design and data analytics. This expertise and strong customer relationships allow Seagate to understand the global mass capacity ecosystem and its architectures better than anyone.

    現在,我們正專注於利用 Lyve 產品平台來應對下一個大量資料挑戰。為了跟上這些變化,我們正在投資對 Seagate 員工進行技能再培訓和職位重新部署,以支持未來的成長並應對不斷變化的業務需求。例如,我們今年稍早推出了一款名為「職業探索」(Career Discovery)的工具,該工具已幫助 Seagate 為數百名員工建立人脈網絡和導師關係,並為他們提供重新部署的機會。 Seagate 擁有許多人才儲備,他們在硬體和軟體領域擁有數十年的經驗,具備強大的供應鏈管理和製造能力,以及深厚的晶片設計和數據分析知識。憑藉這些專業知識和強大的客戶關係,Seagate 比任何人都更了解全球海量容量生態系統及其架構。

  • Tools such as Career Discovery are helping us deploy our diverse resources to support our future needs while enabling Seagate to maintain OpEx efficiency. We are confident that this focus on people will put us in a firm footing for continued growth and success.

    諸如「職業發展探索」之類的工具正在幫助我們合理地調配各種資源,以滿足未來的需求,同時使希捷能夠保持營運效率。我們相信,這種以人為本的策略將為我們持續成長和成功奠定堅實的基礎。

  • As we close, I want to thank both Seagate's employees and those in our supply chain. These efforts enable our ongoing leadership in mass data solutions. Our customers and our shareholders are equally deserving of thanks for their ongoing trust and support of Seagate. Gianluca and I are now happy to take your questions.

    最後,我要感謝希捷的員工以及我們供應鏈上的所有成員。正是他們的努力,才使我們得以在海量數據解決方案領域保持持續領先地位。同時,我也要感謝我們的客戶和股東,感謝他們一直以來對希捷的信任與支持。現在,我和Gianluca很樂意回答大家的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Karl Ackerman with Cowen and Company.

    (操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自考恩公司的卡爾‧阿克曼。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • My first question -- this is Lenny on for Karl Ackerman. I have 2 questions. My first question, what sort of feedback have you received from current hyperscale? If it's qualifying your 20-terabyte nearline drive? I'm asking because you have previously indicated, it is not a cost-effective node yet. This is a critical step function until you reach the 24 -- 20-terabyte HAMR. When should we expect 20-terabyte HAMR to reach bit crossover for nearline shipments? Is that something that could occur in fiscal '22?

    我的第一個問題是──我是Lenny,替Karl Ackerman提問。我有兩個問題。第一個問題是,您從目前的超大規模資料中心收到了哪些回饋?這些回饋是否符合您20TB近線硬碟的規格要求?我這麼問是因為您之前提到過,它目前還不是一個經濟高效的節點。這是實現20TB HAMR(高可用多路復用)的關鍵一步。我們預計20TB HAMR何時才能達到近線硬碟上貨量所需的比特交叉點?這有可能在2022財年實現嗎?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So thanks, Lenny. Well, I don't think we ever said that 20 terabytes would be a crossover point for HAMR, to your point. So we have a number of different 20-terabyte platforms coming, PMR, SMR, HAMR. There's a lot of different flavors of them. And they're targeted in different customers. So different qualification schedules for each. We're very aggressive with the 20-terabyte qualification because the heads and media for the PMR version that we referenced in the prepared remarks,is already in the high-volume manufacturing for 18 terabytes and the capacity points below as well, 16 and so on. So we're very confident in that. And we're ramping aggressively with customers, giving them samples, getting through qualifications and fairly optimistic about that for the back half of the year.

    是的,謝謝你,Lenny。嗯,正如你所說,我們從未說過20TB是HAMR的轉捩點。我們有許多不同的20TB平台即將推出,包括PMR、SMR和HAMR。它們有許多不同的版本,面向不同的客戶,因此每個平台都有不同的認證計劃。我們對20TB平台的認證工作非常積極,因為我們在準備的發言稿中提到的PMR版本的磁頭和介質,已經投入18TB以及更低容量(例如16TB等)的大批量生產。所以我們對此非常有信心。我們正在積極地與客戶合作,提供樣品,完成認證,並且對下半年的進展相當樂觀。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • And just 1 more follow-up, if I may. On-demand outlook and CapEx, how are you thinking about adding incremental heads in disk capacity relative to your fiscal '22 outlook? Chia cryptocurrency has clearly led to a supply shortage of mid- and high capacity drives through data center, yet the fulfillment of the JEDI contract by the Department of Defense appears to meet the CapEx demands for next few quarters. I'm hoping you may address your view of capacity and the outlook for data center demand over the next few quarters?

    還有一個後續問題,能否請您解答?關於按需需求和資本支出,您如何考慮在2022財年增加磁碟容量?奇亞幣的出現顯然導致了資料中心中高容量硬碟的供應短缺,但國防部履行JEDI合約似乎能夠滿足未來幾季的資本支出需求。我希望您能談談您對未來幾季資料中心容量和需求的看法。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I'd say within the head factory, for example, which is the longest lead time part, we have well over 100 million heads per quarter going out. So we have the ability to mix -- to change the mix as we see fit. So some of the demand changes that we saw are fairly easy inside of our portfolio, which has been really trimmed down, made very efficient, especially with the common platform, we have the ability to change from one to the other.

    是的。例如,在生產週期最長的噴頭工廠,我們每季要生產超過1億個噴頭。所以我們有能力根據需要調整產品組合。因此,我們看到的一些需求變化在我們精簡且高效的產品組合中很容易應對,尤其是在通用平台上,我們能夠輕鬆地在不同產品之間切換。

  • We are always bringing on more capacity by putting new tools online to hit the new technology nodes. That's within our CapEx envelope all the time. And we'll just continue to watch this. I think we can continue to grow more exabyte supply with technology transitions, more exabytes with areal density, so to speak, and we'll continue to watch and be nimble in the markets as well. Gianluca, do you want to add something?

    我們一直在透過上線新工具來增加產能,以適應新的技術節點。這始終都在我們的資本支出預算之內。我們會繼續密切關注市場動態。我認為,隨著技術轉型,我們可以繼續增加EB級供應量,或者說,隨著面密度的提高,我們可以增加EB級供應量。我們也會持續關注市場,並保持靈活應對。 Gianluca,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Yes. We discussed in the last few quarters about the need to realign supply and demand, and we are getting closer and closer every quarter. For the overall CapEx, fiscal '22, we think we will have the same target of fiscal '21 between 4% and 6% of revenue. So we will add capacity, but we will also be looking at keeping this alignment within supply and demand.

    是的。過去幾季我們一直在討論重新調整供需關係的必要性,而且每季我們都在朝著這個目標不斷邁進。對於2022財年的整體資本支出,我們預期會與2021財年的目標一致,維持在營收的4%到6%之間。因此,我們會增加產能,但同時也會努力維持供需平衡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

  • Kathryn Lynn Huberty - MD and Research Analyst

    Kathryn Lynn Huberty - MD and Research Analyst

  • As you walk through the various segments, nearline, VIA, mission critical, consumer, you talked about stable trends across the board, yet the full year revenue growth guidance assumes that there will be a revenue run rate reduction from the $3.1 billion September guide. Can you just talk about what will drive lower revenue as you move through the year? And maybe what sort of the first half versus second half looks like? And then I have a follow-up.

    當您介紹各個業務板塊(包括近線業務、VIA、關鍵任務業務和消費業務)時,您提到整體趨勢保持穩定,但全年營收成長預期卻假設營收成長速度將低於9月31億美元的預期。能否具體談談哪些因素會導致營收下滑?以及上半年和下半年的營收情況如何?我還有一個後續問題。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Katy. Yes, I think we are chasing the demand right now, obviously. And so we think the front half is a little stronger. In the back half, there will be a more muted seasonality than what we're normally accustomed. We do -- there's also -- that's 3 quarters away. There may be some variability there. So we do have good relationships with all of our customers across all these product sets now, and they give us pretty strong sense of what their demand profile is going to be through the year. So I would characterize it as muted seasonality for now, but significantly up, we said, at least high single digits in revenue growth year-over-year. So it's still significantly up, and we're still chasing it.

    謝謝,凱蒂。是的,我認為我們目前顯然正在努力滿足市場需求。因此,我們認為上半年的業績會比較強勁。下半年,季節性波動會比往年小。當然,還有三個季度的時間,屆時可能會有一些波動。目前,我們與所有產品線的客戶都保持著良好的關係,他們能夠讓我們比較準確地了解他們全年的需求情況。所以,我認為目前的季節性波動較小,但收入同比增長顯著,我們之前說過,至少達到了接近兩位數的水平。因此,收入仍然顯著增長,我們仍在努力滿足市場需求。

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Yes. We think we will have a very strong second part of the calendar '21. Last quarter, I think we said at least 10% increase year-over-year. Right now, we think it will be at least 15%. So for sure, another couple of quarters, very strong. And then as usual, we have in our plans some seasonality for the legacy market and some of the mass capacity like surveillance, but could be different as we have seen last year, for example.

    是的。我們預計2021年下半年業績將非常強勁。上個季度,我們預計將年增至少10%。目前,我們認為至少會達到15%。所以可以肯定的是,未來幾季業績都將非常強勁。當然,像往常一樣,我們的計劃中也考慮到了傳統市場和一些大容量業務(例如監控設備)的季節性因素,但情況可能會有所不同,就像我們去年看到的那樣。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • I think the other thing is we're running -- to the earlier question, we're running in the high volume, the heads and media that we already need to make more 18s or 20s or whatever. So if some of the cloud markets were to take up above our plan, we could stretch there, I think, in the back half of the year as well.

    我認為另一點是,正如之前的問題所述,我們正在全力以赴地進行高容量的運營,我們需要投入大量資源和媒體資源來製作更多18分鐘或20分鐘的節目或其他類型的節目。因此,如果一些雲端市場的需求超出我們的計劃,我認為我們可以在下半年繼續拓展業務。

  • Kathryn Lynn Huberty - MD and Research Analyst

    Kathryn Lynn Huberty - MD and Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then the pricing environment, as you said, has firmed up faster than you expected. What will determine whether those prices can hold? And what are you assuming for price change in that full year guidance for high single-digit growth?

    好的。正如您所說,價格環境的穩定速度比您預期的要快。那麼,這些價格能否維持下去將取決於哪些因素?您對全年高個位數成長預期中的價格變動有何假設?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Across the whole portfolio, it's really the balance of supply and demand. So it's not just about the exabytes at the highest capacity points, it's -- there's strong demand in the VIA markets. There's strong demand for 8-terabyte families this quarter, strong demand for even some of the high-end desktop products. So I think we're trying to balance all these things for the customers. They're giving us predictability and they need predictability at the time of disruptive supply chain. Everybody is trying to get the complete kits to attack all these market opportunities that they have. So that's really what's firming it up. And I'll let Gianluca kind of quantify it through the course of the fiscal year.

    縱觀整個產品組合,關鍵在於供需平衡。這不僅關乎最高容量的EB級產品,VIA市場也存在著強勁的需求。本季8TB系列產品需求旺盛,甚至部分高階桌面產品也需求強勁。因此,我認為我們正在努力為客戶平衡所有這些因素。客戶希望我們能夠提供可預測性,而在這個供應鏈動盪的時期,他們尤其需要這種可預測性。每個人都在努力獲得完整的套件,以抓住所有市場機會。這才是真正促成市場穩定的關鍵因素。接下來,我會讓Gianluca在本財政年度對此進行量化分析。

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Yes. For the time being, I would say in the plan, we have a fairly strong pricing environment, especially for the mass capacity. The legacy is still expected to decline a little bit. But in general, as we were discussing before, it all depends from this alignment between supply and demand. But right now, it's fairly good. We want to give it at this level.

    是的。就目前而言,我認為我們的定價環境相當穩健,尤其是在大量產能方面。傳統產能預計仍會略為下降。但總的來說,正如我們之前討論過的,一切都取決於供需平衡。但就目前而言,情況相當不錯。我們希望保持目前的水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

    你的下一個問題來自西德尼·何與德意志銀行的合作。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • My first question is on the nearline drives. Given how strong nearline exabyte shipment have been in the past 2 quarters, I think it's up 40% in the past 2 quarters. I know crypto is a factor, but you also mentioned cloud is strong as well. Are you concerned that we'll see an inventory digestion phase soon? Or maybe a slightly differently, do you have a sense as to how much inventory is built in the channel or your customers, especially cloud and enterprise guys at this time?

    我的第一個問題是關於近線硬碟的。鑑於近線硬碟在過去兩季的EB級出貨量非常強勁,我認為其在過去兩季成長了40%。我知道加密貨幣是一個因素,但您也提到雲端運算也是強勁成長的因素。您是否擔心我們很快就會看到庫存消化階段?或者換個角度來說,您是否了解目前通路或您的客戶(尤其是雲端運算和企業級客戶)的庫存情況?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Sidney. I don't think there's too much inventory out there by any stretch of imagination. It's a little bit different if you look at the enterprise channels. They're relatively lower inventory, and we did see growth in the enterprise quite a bit quarter-over-quarter. As far as the cloud is -- goes worldwide, I think it's fairly healthy demand. It's fairly well distributed. This is what we've been talking about for the last couple of years. We've always wanted a lot of different customers pulling at these levels, and we've seen that. So we're fairly happy with the demand outlook. And what we've got in the build plan right now for the next couple of quarters because the lead time is so long as we've said before, that's really what builds our confidence is these great conversations we're having with customers worldwide.

    是的,謝謝,西德尼。我認為目前庫存絕對不算多。不過,企業通路的情況略有不同。他們的庫存相對較低,而且我們看到企業通路的季度環比增長相當顯著。至於雲端業務——就全球而言,我認為需求相當健康,分佈也相當均勻。這正是我們過去幾年一直在討論的。我們一直希望看到許多不同類型的客戶都達到這樣的需求水平,而我們也看到了這一點。因此,我們對需求前景相當滿意。正如我們之前所說,由於交貨週期較長,我們目前已經制定了未來幾季的生產計劃。真正讓我們充滿信心的,是我們與全球客戶進行的這些卓有成效的對話。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Great. Maybe a follow-up question. On the gross margin side, you talked about gross margin to be within the long-term target range of 30% to 33% in September quarter. Curious if you have to unpack the gross margin guidance, what are some of the key components for this margin uplift, whether it's like-for-like pricing, product mix, yield improvements and whatnot? And how should we think about those factors playing out beyond the September quarter?

    好的。或許可以再問一個問題。關於毛利率,您提到9月季度的毛利率將達到30%至33%的長期目標區間。如果您需要詳細解讀毛利率預期,我想請您解釋一下,毛利率提升的關鍵因素有哪些?例如,同店定價、產品組合、良率提升等等?以及這些因素在9月季度之後會如何發展?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks. And I'll let Gianluca chime in here, too. The first thing I would say is that there were a lot of swaps during the quarter from maybe some of the things we had planned into things that were actually moving faster. And like I said, when you have demand everywhere, the swaps actually reflected better supply and demand balance than what we had forecast. And that's probably the biggest the biggest thing. Inventories came down. Our factories are very full. The heads and media factories, of course, are being staged for the next couple of quarters as well. So all that benefits us financially.

    是的,謝謝。我也想讓Gianluca補充一下。首先我想說的是,本季我們做了許多調整,把一些原本計畫好的專案調整到了實際進展更快的專案上。就像我剛才說的,當各方面需求都很旺盛時,這些調整其實反映出的供需平衡比我們預期的要好。這可能是最重要的一點。庫存下降了。我們的工廠產能非常充足。當然,頭部和媒體工廠也正在為接下來的幾季做準備。所有這些都對我們的財務狀況有利。

  • There's a mix up as well. And we're going to more cost optimize drives in the next few quarters as well. So we've started into the family of 18s that we've talked about, we like the cost on. We have lower capacity nearline drive that's actually mixing in as well that we've launched. So those are all the positives. There still are headwinds from freight logistics around the world, it's still not -- it's still there. It's still an overhang. And there's obviously component prices in various sectors that are happening because of shortages worldwide that are affecting us a little bit. So those are the headwinds.

    也存在一些混淆。未來幾個季度,我們還將進一步優化驅動器的成本。我們已經開始著手研發之前提到的18系列驅動器,我們對它的成本感到滿意。此外,我們還推出了一款容量較低的近線驅動器,它也正在融入我們的產品線中。以上都是正面的方面。全球貨運物流仍存在一些不利因素,這些因素依然存在,仍然是潛在的影響因素。顯然,由於全球範圍內的零件短缺,各行業的零件價格上漲也對我們造成了一定的影響。這些都是不利因素。

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Yes. We had a very good quarter in FQ4, and we're already guiding FQ1 at higher levels. I would say one of the major reason is this pricing environment that is improving. The second reason is the mix that is shifting more and more to the mass capacity. In fiscal Q4, 70% of the revenue was already on mass capacity, and we expect that to continue to increase. The other major reason that you will see throughout the fiscal year '22 is the increase of our cost-optimized drive, so the drives that are based on 2 terabytes per disc. And that will stay with us through the fourth quarter, and we'll continue to bring improvement to our gross margin.

    是的。我們在第四財季表現非常出色,因此我們已經提高了第一財季的預期。我認為主要原因之一是價格環境的改善。第二個原因是產品組合越來越多地轉向大容量硬碟。在第四財季,大容量硬碟的營收已占到總營收的70%,我們預期這一比例將持續成長。另一個主要原因是,在整個2022財年,我們將增加成本優化型硬碟的銷售量,也就是每張2TB的硬碟。這一趨勢將持續到第四財季,我們將繼續提升毛利率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Director

    Wamsi Mohan - Director

  • Dave, you said mid-single-digit percent of HDD exabyte demand from Chia in the June quarter for the industry. So if I map up to Seagate, it looks like Chia contributed maybe 60% of the incremental sequential exabytes. So if you see this demand flatten out, how comfortable are you that supply demand will continue to be tight enough to keep pricing favorable? And I have a follow-up.

    Dave,你提到在六月的季度裡,Chia 的硬碟需求量佔整個產業硬碟總需求量的個位數百分比。如果我把資料和 Seagate 比較一下,Chia 似乎貢獻了大約 60% 的新增順序 EB 級硬碟需求。所以,如果你看到這種需求趨於平緩,你有多大把握供需關係能夠繼續保持緊張,從而維持價格優勢?我還有一個後續問題。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Wamsi. It's really hard to forecast exactly what's going on in Chia, not just because of Chia itself because they're fairly transparent with their numbers, but because of the entire space that's developing. We did say that on the growth of the NAS space that we've seen to date, there's probably a fair amount of refurbished drives or drives that have been purchased 1 or 2 quarters ago. So it's a relatively small contribution as of yet to Seagate's overall revenue.

    是的,謝謝 Wamsi。要準確預測 Chi​​a 的發展確實很難,這不僅是因為 Chia 本身(他們的財務數據相當透明),還因為整個產業都在不斷發展變化。我們之前也提到過,就目前我們看到的 NAS 市場成長而言,其中可能包含相當一部分翻新硬碟或一兩個季度前購買的硬碟。因此,就目前而言,NAS 對 Seagate 整體營收的貢獻相對較小。

  • And even in the exabyte growth perspective, I don't think it's very big. So we said maybe mid-single digits like you referenced. I think it's a space to watch. We love it because it's very innovative, not just in Chia and those applications, but also in the (inaudible) applications that we talked about last quarter.

    即使從EB級成長的角度來看,我認為它並不算很大。所以我們說,可能就像你提到的那樣,只有個位數的中段成長。我認為這是一個值得關注的領域。我們喜歡它,因為它非常具有創新性,不僅體現在Chia和其他應用程式中,也體現在我們上個季度提到的那些(聽不清楚)應用程式中。

  • The big takeaway is if it continues to grow and fast, it will have to grow with more new build. So that's something for us to watch. But we're not really forecasting very much of that into our guide right now because it's -- we're going to wait and see a little bit and we'll react to customers who are trying to drive more demand in the channel as it happens. Mass capacity is still our business. I mean that's what I would take away. And that's how we plan our exabytes, and that's how we have our customer relationships across the breadth of our portfolio. And so I don't think Chia was that impactful from that respect in the last quarter. And looking forward, we're not really forecasting it very much, we'll just react to it.

    最重要的一點是,如果它繼續快速成長,就必須透過更多的新建項目來實現成長。所以這是我們需要關注的。但我們目前並沒有在業績指引中對此做出太多預測,因為我們會先觀望一段時間,並根據通路中客戶的需求變化做出相應的反應。大規模容量仍然是我們的核心業務。我的意思是,這就是我的看法。我們正是以此來規劃我們的EB級容量,也是我們與客戶建立並維持我們產品組合中各個環節關係的方式。因此,我認為Chia在上個季度在這方面的影響並不大。展望未來,我們也不會對此做出太多預測,只會根據實際情況做出反應。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Director

    Wamsi Mohan - Director

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then as a follow-up, you've added gross margins for next quarter within your long-term range. What would need to happen for you to fall out of that range as you go through the course of the year?

    好的,這很有幫助。接下來,您已經將下一季的毛利率納入了長期預期範圍。那麼,在這一年中,需要發生什麼情況才會導致您的預期毛利率超出這個範圍?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think that would be all about cost and maybe some kind of disruption to the overall supply/demand picture that we've been working on. If you go back 6 quarters, 8 quarters when we decided to make some of the investments that we did for the mass capacity platform on 16s and then transitioning to 18s and everything else, we put on capacity for that. We pivoted our lines for that. And that's when the pandemic hit and the supply chain was so disrupted, that's the thing that really hurt us.

    是的,我認為這完全取決於成本,也可能與我們一直在努力改善的整體供需格局有關。回顧六到八個季度前,我們決定對16寸輪轂的大規模產能平台進行一些投資,然後過渡到18寸輪轂以及其他所有輪轂,我們為此增加了產能,並調整了生產線。就在那時,疫情爆發,供應鏈嚴重中斷,這對我們造成了沉重打擊。

  • It's allowed us to climb back into the model as the exabyte demand has grown. I think we'd be a lot more resilient this time at this higher level, but it's still -- that would still be the watch item. We don't forecast that, by the way. We think that the exabyte curve is still going up. And over the next few years, you know our thesis, it's going to grow very big. And so we're still fairly bullish on exabyte growth without this thing taking a back seat or U-turn. But in these environments, we're always -- everybody is careful. So that's the way I'd characterize it.

    隨著EB級資料需求的成長,我們得以重新回到既定模型中。我認為,在更高的水平上,我們這次的韌性會更強,但這仍然是我們需要密切關注的事項。順便說一句,我們並沒有預測EB級資料需求會下降。我們認為EB級數據需求曲線仍在上升。而且,正如我們先前的觀點,未來幾年EB級資料需求將會大幅成長。因此,我們仍然相當看好EB級數據的成長,不會出現任何下滑或逆轉。但在這種環境下,我們始終保持謹慎。這就是我對目前情況的描述。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

    你的下一個問題來自托馬斯·奧馬利在巴克萊銀行的表現。

  • Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

    Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow up on Katy's earlier question talking about the seasonality for the year. Gianluca, I believe you said that the second half of the calendar year would be very strong. And I think you mentioned 15% year-over-year. That would imply a down December. Can you talk about what you're seeing in the December quarter that's weakening? Or can you clarify that 15% year-over-year comment?

    我想就凱蒂之前關於年度季節性問題做個後續跟進。吉安盧卡,我記得你說過下半年業績會非常強勁,而且你提到年比成長15%。這意味著12月份業績可能會下滑。你能說說你觀察到的12月季度業績疲軟的具體情況嗎?或者你能解釋一下你提到的年成長15%是什麼意思嗎?

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Yes. I said at least 15%. So I don't think it's implying really a decrease in the December (inaudible) will be probably fairly close. I would say the seasonality that is expected is more into the March and June quarter as it was the case in the last few years with the exception in fiscal '21. We think in general, because the mix of mass capacity is continuing to improve, this seasonality will be more muted in the future, maybe in this calendar year, but is a little bit less visibility for us when we go into the March and June quarter.

    是的,我說過至少15%。所以我認為這並不代表12月(聽不清楚)真的會下降,可能差不多。我認為,預計的季節性影響會更多地體現在3月和6月季度,就像過去幾年一樣,除了2021財年。我們認為,整體而言,由於大眾運輸能力的組成持續改善,這種季節性影響未來會更加微弱,也許今年就會有所減弱,但到了3月和6月季度,我們對其影響的預測就比較不確定了。

  • Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

    Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then my follow-up is around nearline. I know that you guys don't like to talk about Chia, but clearly, you've been in a really nice leadership position here. Can you talk about that leadership position and how you feel like you're maintaining that lead. And for the remainder of the year, do you think that, from a competitive perspective, you're going to see any change in that market?

    這很有幫助。接下來想問的是近線業務。我知道你們不太喜歡談論奇亞籽,但顯然,你們一直處於非常有利的領導地位。能否談談你們的領導地位,以及你們是如何保持領先的?另外,從競爭的角度來看,你們認為今年剩餘時間裡,這個市場會有什麼改變嗎?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Tom. We actually -- well, we don't manage for market share. We've been talking about that for quite some time. We're very happy with this platform, 16s going to 18s, going to 20s and going beyond as well. And obviously, that's allowed us to be very flexible. And so when people come in for a few more units, they want to swap something in their plan, they want to get that upside. We can actually get it done out of the factories. And that's probably the biggest reason for why we've done really well.

    是的,謝謝,湯姆。實際上,我們並不以市佔率為目標。我們討論這個問題已經有一段時間了。我們對這個平台非常滿意,從16寸到18寸,再到20寸,甚至更大尺寸。顯然,這讓我們擁有了極大的靈活性。所以,當客戶需要增加幾台設備,想要調整方案,想要獲得升級空間時,我們完全可以在工廠完成這些調整。這或許是我們業績如此出色的最主要原因。

  • And I think that back on the 16s, we had that leadership just in total capacity available. As far as I'm concerned, we're executing the plan. So we're out talking to customers. We tell them, "What do you need?" We plan that way in advance. We talked about this last quarter that, "If you want an 18 in December, you better tell me now because I'm starting the units for it now." And that is, I think, really resonating with customers right now. We can be predictable like this. So that's the way we're planning the business, and we're fairly happy with the portfolio. Again, not driving really for market share or anything like that. And I think that's how our customers are managing us as well, which is be predictable for me and because these are massive investments that they have to make as well, so they need to know that the product is coming.

    我認為早在2016年,我們就憑藉總產能優勢佔據了領先地位。就我而言,我們正在執行計劃。所以我們一直在與客戶溝通,詢問他們「你們需要什麼?」我們要提前做好規劃。上個季度我們談到:「如果您想要12月交付2018款產品,最好現在就告訴我,因為我現在就開始生產了。」我認為這一點目前確實引起了客戶的共鳴。我們可以這樣做到可預測。這就是我們規劃業務的方式,我們對目前的產品組合相當滿意。再次強調,我們並沒有刻意追求市場佔有率或其他類似目標。我認為我們的客戶也是這樣看待我們的,他們希望我們能夠提供可預測的產品,因為這些對他們來說也是巨大的投資,所以他們需要知道產品即將上市。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fox of Fox Advisors LLC.

    你的下一個問題來自 Fox Advisors LLC 的 Steven Fox。

  • Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

    Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

  • Just to follow up on those last comments, Dave. Can you maybe talk about, with now basically supply-demand balance, how you engage differently with some of those customers? What would be the sort of incrementals that get you to add capacity going forward? And then I have a follow-up.

    戴夫,我想就你剛才的評論做個後續。在目前供需基本平衡的情況下,你能否談談你如何以不同的方式與部分客戶互動?未來需要哪些方面的改善才能促使你增加產能?我還有一個後續問題。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I'll tell you, it's kind of more of the same really because if you think about it, if you were buying 16s before and now you want to ramp to 18s or 20s, we're still having the same discussion. It's just the different drive. And we're confident in our yields and throughput and our ability to go hit those high volumes.

    是的。其實本質上差不多,想想看,如果你之前採購的是16號線,現在想升級到18號或20號線,我們討論的還是同樣的問題。只不過驅動方式不同而已。我們對自身的良率、產能、達到高產量的能力都很有信心。

  • There's not much legacy business to take heads and media out of any more, to your point, but they're still, I said, well over 100 million heads per quarter to be able to do some swaps in. The issue is just lead times. So if the swaps are in the last 2 or 3 weeks of the quarter, there's no way, right? So that's what's changing, I think, in the market. I don't think we'll go back into a point where we put overcapacity in for that. I think we just -- we get into the -- stay inside of our financial model. We’ll invest in the CapEx that we see for the demand, and then maybe if the demand goes even bigger, then we can up our investment. We can do that 1 tool at a time. We don't need to do it with the massive swings, I think.

    正如你所說,現在幾乎沒有多少傳統業務需要更換噴頭和介質了,但我之前說過,每個季度仍然有超過1億個噴頭的訂單,足以進行一些替換。問題在於交貨週期。如果替換安排在季度末的最後兩三週,那就根本沒辦法了,對吧?所以我認為,這就是市場正在改變的地方。我不認為我們會回到過去那種為了這個目的而增加產能的階段。我認為我們應該——保持在我們的財務模型之內。我們會根據需求進行資本支出投資,如果需求進一步成長,我們會再增加投資。我們可以一次只增加一種工具。我認為我們不需要進行如此大幅度的調整。

  • Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

    Steven Bryant Fox - Founder & CEO

  • That's helpful. And then just secondly, on the Lyve platform. It sounds like you're getting some more technology validation or at least proceeding like you expected. Is it changing any of your thinking for '22 in terms of the non-HDD business?

    這很有幫助。其次,關於 Lyve 平台。聽起來你們的技術得到了進一步驗證,或至少進展符合預期。這是否改變了你們 2022 年在非硬碟業務的想法?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • No, I don't think so. But the non-HDD business did grow, as we talked about in the prepared remarks. So we're fairly happy with the breadth of our portfolio and how it's growing. Relative to the Lyve business, the market is clearly out there. There are people who are struggling with the data that they have on the edge, being able to move that into the cloud, find those temporary resting spots like we've talked about a lot with Lyve such that they can move it to its final destination in some cloud service provider or multiple cloud service providers instances. So we are -- I'm really encouraged by all the customer engagements that we have. We have to learn to serve this market really well, and then it will grow. So I'm really pleased with what I see, and I hope to share that at some point in the future with everyone.

    不,我不這麼認為。但正如我們在準備好的發言稿中提到的,非硬碟業務確實成長了。因此,我們對產品組合的廣度和成長相當滿意。就 Lyve 業務而言,市場需求顯而易見。許多用戶正苦於處理邊緣數據,如何將其遷移到雲端,找到像我們之前多次提到的 Lyve 那樣的臨時存儲位置,以便最終將其遷移到某個或多個雲端服務提供商的實例中。因此,我——我對我們與客戶的所有合作都感到非常鼓舞。我們必須學會更好地服務這個市場,然後它就會成長。所以我對目前的情況感到非常滿意,並希望將來有機會與大家分享。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital.

    你的下一個問題來自 Ananda Baruah 和 Loop Capital 的線路。

  • Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

    Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

  • Dave, how would you sort of describe your thoughts around the length of this hyperscale cycle at this point? And I guess, what's sort of the personality of it as well? And I have a quick follow-up.

    戴夫,你如何描述你目前對超大規模能源週期長度的看法?還有,它的特點是什麼?我還有一個後續問題。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Ananda. It's interesting because I think the front end of this cycle, if you will, was not really about adding too much mass capacity. It was more about just all the digital transformation that was going on during the pandemic. So it was networking and it was compute and it was making sure the applications can run with much, much heavier workloads than they were necessarily designed for or were contemplated 6 months earlier. I mean it was a tremendous stress on people.

    謝謝,阿南達。這很有意思,因為我覺得這個週期的初期階段,如果可以這麼說的話,其實不是要大幅增加產能。它更多的是關於疫情期間正在進行的數位轉型。所以,重點在於網路和運算,以及確保應用程式能夠承受比六個月前設計或預期高得多的工作負載。我的意思是,這給人們帶來了巨大的壓力。

  • It's been our thesis that the storage back end to that will come and it will come bigger. And it's -- I would say that even the signal that we've seen that's fairly steady growth of the cloud. I still think it's going to grow even bigger. So it's a very different cycle to your point. It's not a matter of putting on excess capacity and then learning some kind of way to use that capacity better out into the market. I think it's a matter of making sure you focus all your investment dollars on those applications, satisfying everyone on the front end, usually from a performance perspective and then the data will grow and the back end of the cloud is clearly going to grow from here. And so we're very excited about that, making sure we have our portfolio as clean as we can by the time the big -- really big numbers come.

    我們一直認為,雲端儲存後端將會發展壯大,而且規模也會越來越大。即便我們已經看到雲端業務穩定成長的跡象,但我仍然認為它會繼續成長。所以,這和您提到的周期截然不同。這並非是先增加過剩容量,然後再想辦法更好地利用這些容量推向市場。我認為關鍵在於確保將所有投資集中在這些應用上,滿足前端(通常是效能方面)的需求,然後資料量會成長,雲端後端顯然也會隨之成長。因此,我們對此感到非常興奮,並致力於在真正意義上的大規模成長到來之前,盡可能優化我們的投資組合。

  • Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

    Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

  • And how do you want us to think about it as we get into sort of the March, June quarter? Typically, the breaks would come off a little bit. Is that the appropriate way to think about it this time?

    那麼,您希望我們如何看待三月到六月這個季度的情況呢?通常情況下,假期會稍微縮短一些。這次也該這樣考慮嗎?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes, we said that there would be a more muted seasonality than normal, right? So because we're not in the PC business or the legacy business anymore, now that the cloud is a lot more steady. But we'll let you know. I mean if we start to see more recovery around the world, then the cycle -- then the next cycle will be pulled in exactly to your point, right?

    是的,我們說過季節性波動會比往年小一些,對吧?因為我們不再涉足PC或傳統業務,現在雲端運算更加穩定。不過我們會隨時通知您。我的意思是,如果我們看到全球經濟開始復甦,那麼下一個週期就會如您所說,對吧?

  • Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

    Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then just real quick on the capacity. You guys are saying supply-demand -- and Gianluca, feel free to jump in here as well, supply-demand balance, but are you full capacity right now? I mean what's the right way in sort of traditional capacity vernacular to think about where you guys are in terms of full insight?

    明白了,這很有幫助。然後,關於產能,我再快速問一下。你們提到供需平衡——Gianluca,你也隨時可以補充——但你們現在產能滿了嗎?我的意思是,用傳統的產能術語來說,你們目前的產能狀況該怎麼描述?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Much more full than we were, but last year was painful in July, of course. But I would say, no, we're not full, and we can still do more. And we can certainly still do more exabytes. I think the more we have to do, the more predictable we needed to be. In this last quarter, we were actually challenged operationally to make a lot of these swaps because we saw upsides in many markets, and we were moving materials from one market to another. Over the long haul, we can do more exabytes right now, but it has to be even long term -- more long-term predictability, I think, in order to achieve the exabytes. So we're excited about it. We're telling everyone that's the way what we're thinking about.

    比以前充實多了,當然,去年七月的情況確實很艱難。但我想說,不,我們還沒達到極限,還能做得更多。我們當然還能處理更多艾字節的資料。我認為,我們需要做的事情越多,就越需要提高可預測性。上個季度,我們在營運上確實面臨挑戰,需要進行大量的資產互換,因為我們看到許多市場都有上漲空間,我們需要將物料從一個市場轉移到另一個市場。從長遠來看,我們現在就能處理更多艾字節的數據,但這需要更長遠的規劃——我認為,要實現艾字節的目標,就需要更長期的可預測性。所以我們對此感到興奮。我們正在告訴所有人,這就是我們的想法。

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Yes. Last quarter, we shipped a record of 152 exabytes. So we are still growing. So this means we have capacity. Some capacity is still available. Based on our guidance, you can expect another increase in exabyte in FQ1. And as we discussed before, we are still planning to add some CapEx or some capacity through the year.

    是的。上個季度,我們的出貨量創下152艾位元組的紀錄。所以我們仍在成長。這意味著我們還有產能。目前仍有部分產能可用。根據我們的預期,預計第一財季出貨量將再次成長。正如我們之前討論過的,我們計劃在今年繼續增加一些資本支出或產能。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • And as we ramp to 18s and 20s and things like that, we'll get more exabytes out obviously than the existing head and media footprint that we have. So...

    隨著我們逐步升級到 18 秒、20 秒以及類似的規格,我們顯然會比現有儲存頭和儲存媒體佔用的空間輸出更多的 EB 等級資料。所以…

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

    你的下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 與 SIG 的對話。

  • Tyler Scott Fein - Research Analyst

    Tyler Scott Fein - Research Analyst

  • It's Tyler on for Mehdi. Our question was answered.

    泰勒替梅赫迪發言。我們的問題得到了解答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Cassidy with Rosenblatt Securities.

    你的下一個問題來自 Rosenblatt Securities 的 Kevin Cassidy。

  • Kevin Edward Cassidy - Senior Semiconductor Research Analyst

    Kevin Edward Cassidy - Senior Semiconductor Research Analyst

  • Just around your discussions with your customers, are long-term agreements being extended? Or are you adding more long-term agreements? Maybe just -- can you give us an idea of what visibility your customer is giving?

    在您與客戶的討論中,您是否正在延長長期協議?或者您正在增加新的長期協議?或許您能簡單介紹一下您的客戶給予了哪些方面的透明度嗎?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think the discussion around how things are going to go 6 months and 9 months out are -- just are continuing and it's really good. I think everybody wants a certain amount of predictability right now. We certainly do because we've got factories to run, parts to bring online and things like that. A lot of supply chains are tight. And so people want to make sure that if they're going to invest in those supply chains, they're going to have the full kit together. So I think the entire industry is behaving quite well for this perspective right now. It's helping us quite a bit plan our business kit.

    是的,我認為關於未來6個月和9個月發展趨勢的討論仍在繼續,而且這非常好。我認為現在每個人都希望有一定的可預測性。我們當然也希望如此,因為我們需要營運工廠,需要讓零件上線等等。很多供應鏈都很緊張。所以,人們希望確保,如果他們要投資這些供應鏈,他們就能擁有完整的解決方案。因此,我認為從這個角度來看,整個產業目前的表現都相當不錯。這在很大程度上幫助我們規劃業務。

  • Kevin Edward Cassidy - Senior Semiconductor Research Analyst

    Kevin Edward Cassidy - Senior Semiconductor Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And maybe just as a comparison of hyperscale to enterprise. Is enterprise coming back stronger? Or maybe just relative to hyperscale, how is it performing?

    好的,太好了。或許我們可以比較一下超大規模和企業級資料中心。企業級資料中心是否正在強勢復甦?或者,相對於超大規模資料中心,它的表現如何?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. We debate that a lot. And I would say it's 50-50. It's always been kind of a tossup and sometimes one race is ahead of the other. Right now, as we said in the prepared remarks, there's clearly still growth in the cloud. And then as people are coming back on-prem, they're realizing the investments that they want to make that perhaps they had made 6 or 9 months ago. So they're continuing those investments. And so I would say there's growth in both and it's not enough to knock it off the 50-50 split right now.

    是的,我們經常討論這個問題。我認為兩者勢均力敵,五五開。一直以來都很難說,有時一方會領先另一方。正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所提到的,目前雲端領域顯然仍在成長。同時,隨著人們回歸本地部署,他們意識到自己想要繼續進行一些可能在6個月或9個月前的投資。因此,他們正在繼續這些投資。所以我認為兩者都在成長,目前還不足以打破五五開的局面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers 的一條生產線。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Congratulations on the quarter as well. I'm just curious kind of -- first of all, kind of a pointed question. Do you still think that your nearline capacity shift underpinning your fiscal '22 expectations are still going to grow in that 30% to 35% annual range?

    也恭喜你們本季業績出色。我有點好奇——首先,這個問題可能有點直接。你們仍然認為支撐2022財年預期的近線產能轉移計劃,能夠繼續維持每年30%到35%的成長速度嗎?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes, Aaron, we do. Like -- just as I answered Kevin's question, it's -- two years ago, it was at 80%. So 35% last year was a little less. But we think 35% is a good model right now. The wildcard on the upside, of course, is if we get a little bit more cloud 6 months, 9 months from now, and we'll wait and see, we have capacity for it. But that -- and we actually are going to build the parts, I think, anyway for that. So I think there's -- 35% is a good number to model this year. Ananda asked this question, if the next cycle was actually pulled in a little bit, then it would grow pretty fast because we have 18s and 20s coming. Those -- exabytes would go up.

    是的,Aaron,我們確實有這個數據。就像我回答Kevin的問題時說的那樣,兩年前是80%。所以去年的35%略低。但我們認為35%目前是個不錯的模型。當然,有利的一面是,如果我們在未來6個月或9個月內獲得更多雲端服務(我們會拭目以待),我們有足夠的容量來應對。而且我認為,無論如何,我們實際上都會為此構建組件。所以我認為,35%是今年一個合適的模型數字。 Ananda問過這個問題,如果下一個週期提前一些,那麼成長速度會非常快,因為我​​們即將迎來18和20兆位元組的雲端週期。這些——EB級資料量將會增加。

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • We have put visibility on the next 2 quarters. So to now give you exactly the growth for the entire year is a bit difficult. But as a model for the long term, we think that 35% CAGR is still very valid.

    我們已經對未來兩個季度的業績進行了預測。因此,現在很難準確地給出全年的成長數據。但作為長期成長的參考模型,我們認為35%的複合年增長率仍然非常有效。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • And it's all the same heads and media parts, I guess, is the point. So we can be flexible.

    我想,關鍵在於所有負責人和媒體部門都一樣。所以我們可以靈活應對。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Right. Great. And then the follow-up question is, Gianluca, when you talk about the model and we now talk about 30% to 33% gross margin and confidence around that, I'm curious of how you're thinking about operating expense investments. You talked about OpEx remaining kind of at similar levels these next couple of quarters. But if we -- should we start thinking about that you'd let that drop through above that and driving above 20% operating margin? Or would you start to reinvest that and cap op margin at that long-term high end of the target model?

    好的,太好了。接下來的問題是,Gianluca,你剛才談到這個模型,我們現在討論的是30%到33%的毛利率以及你對這個目標的信心,我很好奇你是如何考慮營運支出投資的。你提到未來幾季營運支出將維持在類似的水平。但是,如果我們——我們是否應該開始考慮讓營運支出超過這個水平,從而推動營運利潤率超過20%?還是你會開始將這部分資金再投資,並將營運利潤率限制在目標模式的長期高點?

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • No, for the OpEx, we think the level of FQ4, we can maintain that level through the fiscal '22. We are now start traveling more, but are more -- a little bit more marketing expenses. The performance is very good. So comparing to maybe prior year, we also have a little bit higher variable compensation. But this level, we can keep it between $340 million, $345 million per quarter, I think we can do it.

    不,就營運支出而言,我們認為可以維持第四財季的水準到2022財年。我們現在開始增加出差,但行銷費用也略有增加。業績非常好。所以與前一年相比,我們的浮動薪酬也略有提升。但我認為我們可以將其保持在每季3.4億美元到3.45億美元之間。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • But if we were to outstrip, I think, Aaron, the top end of the range, then we'd look at investments because we have a number of different markets that are growing well right now. So we'd look at what investments we have to make. I think we've said this -- we said this in the script, actually. We have a lot of flexibility inside of $340 million, $350 million, right? So that's -- the first thing we would do is redeploy people inside of that, but then we could still tolerate a little bit more investment if we grew up out -- north of the top end of the range.

    但如果我們超過了預期範圍的上限,我認為,亞倫,那麼我們就需要考慮投資,因為我們目前有很多不同的市場正在蓬勃發展。所以我們會考慮需要進行哪些投資。我想我們之前說過——實際上,我們在劇本裡也提到過。我們在3.4億美元到3.5億美元的範圍內有很大的靈活性,對吧?所以,我們首先會做的就是在這個範圍內重新部署人員,但如果我們的績效超過了預期範圍的上限,我們仍然可以承受更多的投資。

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Operating margin is already 18% right now. So when you model increase in revenue and this level of OpEx and the gross margin you were mentioning before, you will see a very good result in terms of operating margin.

    目前的營業利益率已經達到18%。因此,當你模擬收入成長、營運支出維持在目前水準以及你之前提到的毛利率時,你會發現營業利潤率會有非常不錯的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho with Stifel.

    你的下一個問題來自Patrick Ho與Stifel的合作系列。

  • J. Ho - MD of Technology Sector

    J. Ho - MD of Technology Sector

  • Congrats on the nice quarter. Dave, maybe first off, in terms of the ramp of your 18-terabyte drives. Can you just give a little color on when you expect to see the crossover from 16 to 18 where you're shipping more exabytes from the 18-terabyte ramp?

    恭喜你們本季業績不錯。 Dave,首先,關於你們18TB硬碟的產能爬坡計劃,能否簡要說明一下,你們預計何時能實現從16TB到18TB的過渡,也就是何時能從18TB的產能爬坡階段開始出貨更多EB級硬碟?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I don't think we've formally looked at it that way really, so I don't have an answer, but I think it's pretty soon. It's in the next few quarters. From my perspective, it's the same product family. So the heads and media are already in the pipeline and some customers are asking for 16s, some customers are asking for 18s, but I think it's very soon.

    是的。我覺得我們還沒有正式地從這個角度考慮過,所以我沒有確切的答案,但我認為應該很快就會推出。就在接下來的幾季裡。在我看來,它們屬於同一系列產品。所以磁頭和介質已經在研發中了,有些客戶要求推出16吋的,有些客戶要求推出18吋的,但我認為很快就會上市了。

  • And then same heads and media will take us to 20 terabytes on that PMR platform that we talked about. So we may actually spend some of those heads and disks on 20s as well, right? But I do think we're going significantly far north of 16 very, very soon.

    然後,同樣的磁頭和儲存媒體就能讓我們在先前提到的PMR平台上達到20TB的容量。所以我們可能也會把一些磁頭和磁碟用在20TB的平台上,對吧?但我認為,我們很快就會遠遠超過16TB。

  • J. Ho - MD of Technology Sector

    J. Ho - MD of Technology Sector

  • Great. That's helpful. And maybe as a follow-up for you Gianluca, or yourself, Dave. In terms of the Lyve platform. Obviously, we've seen now the rollout of several product iterations from that family. As it relates to OpEx, is a lot of that R&D spending done? Or are you continuing to invest in Lyve where we'll see future product introductions. Is that part of the, I guess, help in terms of maintaining OpEx at current levels?

    太好了,這很有幫助。 Gianluca,或者Dave,我想就Lyve平臺本身再問你一個問題。顯然,我們已經看到了該系列產品多次迭代的推出。就營運支出而言,研發投入是否已經基本完成?還是你們仍在繼續投資Lyve,以期未來推出更多產品?這是否有助於將營運支出維持在目前的水平?

  • Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

    Gianluca Romano - Executive VP of Finance & CFO

  • Yes. It's part of the OpEx guidance we discussed before, and we are investing more in Lyve. We think this is a bigger part of our future business. We are very positive on the possible outcome from the business, so we will invest. But as I said, we will stay around that level of OpEx that we discussed before.

    是的。這是我們之前討論過的營運支出指導方針的一部分,我們正在加大對Lyve的投資。我們認為Lyve在我們未來的業務中佔據更重要的地位。我們對這項業務的潛在前景非常樂觀,所以我們會繼續投資。但正如我所說,我們將保持之前討論過的營運支出水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our last question will come from the line of Shannon Cross of Cross Research.

    最後一個問題來自 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

  • I was just wondering, can you talk about the materiality of the dual actuator drives. It looks like you've expanded access to certain other customers recently. And I'm just wondering how we should think about it in terms of ASP and benefit as we look forward? And then I have a follow-up.

    我只是想問一下,您能否談談雙執行器驅動裝置的實質問題?看起來您最近已經將這項技術推廣到其他一些客戶群。我想知道,展望未來,我們該如何從平均售價和收益的角度來考慮這項技術?另外,我還有一個後續問題。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Shannon. It's growing quite nicely, actually, growing volume in the factories and it's not a small volume product anymore. It's becoming a large volume product. We'll be talking about it more and more over the quarters. It is a 14-terabyte drive right now. So people are making trades for 18 terabytes, they may want to go with a single actuator, but it's very specific to a few applications out in the cloud world that people need the dual actuator already.

    謝謝,香農。實際上,它的發展勢頭相當不錯,工廠的產量也在不斷增長,它不再是小批量產品了,而是正在成為大批量產品。接下來的幾個季度,我們會更多地談論它。目前它是一款14TB的硬碟。所以,有些人會選擇18TB的硬碟,他們可能想要單執行器,但只有少數雲端應用場景需要雙執行器。

  • Remember, fundamentally, we believe that by the time you get to 30 or 40 terabytes, you can't have all that behind 1 actuator. You need to have dual actuator at least. And we have to solve all the power problems and all the interface problems with our customers and things like that to make that happen. So we're quite excited about getting learning on the technology, the fact that we have the platform, continuing in development parallel drives that as we launch a new high-capacity drive, we have the same capacity points on dual actuator.

    記住,從根本上講,我們認為,當容量達到 30 或 40 TB 時,僅靠一個硬碟是無法實現的。至少需要雙驅動器。為了實現這一點,我們必須解決所有電源問題以及與客戶之間的介面問題等等。因此,我們對這項技術以及我們擁有的平台感到非常興奮,並正在繼續開發並行驅動器,以便在推出新的高容量驅動器時,我們能夠在雙驅動器上實現相同的容量。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Co-Founder, Principal & Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a clarification. I think during the script, you mentioned strength in high-end desktop. I'm not sure if you're mentioning if that includes gaming. But I'm wondering, are you seeing benefit from customers coming back to the office and needing to refresh desktops that perhaps are 18 months old now at this point in time.

    好的。還有一個問題需要澄清。我記得在演講稿中,您提到了高端桌上型電腦的優勢。我不確定您是否也提到了遊戲方面的優勢。我想問的是,隨著客戶重返辦公室,需要更新可能已經使用了18個月的桌上型電腦,您是否從中受益?

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I wouldn't say it’s desktop PC anymore. There is gaming that's happening. But I would say more distribution channel around things like crypto applications and things like that. There are people who are looking just for the absolutely lowest cost per terabyte that they can find. And so that's one of the reasons why the average drive capacity is mixing up. It's going to -- from 2 terabytes to 4 terabytes. And last quarter, we were over 5 terabytes. And I expect that trend will continue. So it's happening certainly in consumer channels and things like that.

    是的,我不會再說它僅限於桌上型電腦了。遊戲領域依然存在,但我認為更多的是圍繞加密貨幣應用等內容的通路分銷。有些人只追求每TB價格的絕對最低。因此,這也是平均硬碟容量出現波動的原因之一。它正從2TB漲到4TB。上個季度,我們甚至超過了5TB。我預計這種趨勢還會持續下去。這種情況在消費通路等領域尤其明顯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, I'll turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

    此時,我將把電話轉回給管理階層,請他們作總結發言。

  • William David Mosley - CEO & Director

    William David Mosley - CEO & Director

  • Okay. Thanks, Tabitha. Seagate is delivering strong performance, demonstrating financial results consistent with our long-term targets and executing our product and technology road map to capture long-term secular growth opportunities for mass data infrastructure. I'll close by expressing my appreciation for our customers, suppliers, our employees and our shareholders for your ongoing support of Seagate. Thanks again for joining us today.

    好的。謝謝,塔比莎。希捷業績表現強勁,財務業績符合我們的長期目標,並正在執行我們的產品和技術路線圖,以掌握大量資料基礎設施的長期成長機會。最後,我要感謝我們的客戶、供應商、員工和股東們一直以來對希捷的支持。再次感謝各位今天蒞臨。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝各位,電話會議到此結束。你們現在可以掛斷電話了。