Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Starwood Property Trust First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Starwood Property Trust 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Zach Tanenbaum, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Zach. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係總監 Zach Tanenbaum。謝謝你，扎克。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Starwood Property Trust earnings call. This morning, the company released its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, filed its Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and posted its earnings supplement to its website. These documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.starwoodpropertytrust.com.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，歡迎來到喜達屋財產信託財報電話會議。今天上午，該公司發布了截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的季度財務業績，向美國證券交易委員會提交了 10-Q 表格，並在其網站上發布了收益補充資料。這些文件可在公司網站 www.starwoodpropertytrust.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

Before the call begins, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made in the course of this call are not based on historical information and may constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of trends and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.

在電話會議開始之前，我想提醒大家，在本次電話會議過程中所做的某些陳述並非基於歷史信息，可能構成前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期和信念，並受許多趨勢和不確定性的影響，這些趨勢和不確定性可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異。

I refer you to the company's filings made with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements that may be made during the course of this call.

我建議您參考公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以更詳細地討論可能導致實際結果與今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險和因素。公司不承擔更新本次電話會議期間可能作出的任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

Additionally, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this conference call. A presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP can be accessed through our filings with the SEC at www.sec.gov.

此外，本次電話會議還將討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。不應孤立地考慮或替代根據 GAAP 提供的財務信息來考慮此信息的介紹。這些非 GAAP 財務措施與根據 GAAP 編制的最具可比性的措施的對賬可通過我們在 www.sec.gov 上向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件獲取。

Joining me on the call today are Barry Sternlicht, the company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff DiModica, the company's President; and Rina Paniry, the company's Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的有公司董事長兼首席執行官 Barry Sternlicht；公司總裁 Jeff DiModica；和公司首席財務官 Rina Paniry。

With that, I'm now going to turn the call over to Rina.

有了這個，我現在要把電話轉給 Rina。

Thank you, Zach, and good morning, everyone. This quarter, we reported distributable earnings or DE of $157 million or $0.49 per share. GAAP net income was $52 million or $0.16 per share. One of the primary differences between GAAP and DE is a $43 million increase in our CECL reserve, which I will discuss later. GAAP book value per share ended the quarter at $20.44 with undepreciated book value at $21.37. These book value metrics including accumulated CECL reserve balance of $153 million or $0.49.

謝謝扎克，大家早上好。本季度，我們報告的可分配收益或 DE 為 1.57 億美元或每股 0.49 美元。 GAAP 淨收入為 5200 萬美元或每股 0.16 美元。 GAAP 和 DE 之間的主要區別之一是我們的 CECL 儲備增加了 4300 萬美元，我將在稍後討論。 GAAP 每股賬面價值在本季度末為 20.44 美元，未折舊賬面價值為 21.37 美元。這些賬面價值指標包括累計 CECL 準備金餘額 1.53 億美元或 0.49 美元。

Beginning my segment discussion this morning is Commercial and Residential Lending, which contributed DE of $192 million to the quarter or $0.60 per share. In Commercial Lending, we funded $260 million, including $222 million of pre-existing loan commitments and a new $59 million loan, of which $38 million was funded.

今天早上開始我的細分討論是商業和住宅貸款，它為本季度貢獻了 1.92 億美元的 DE 或每股 0.60 美元。在商業貸款方面，我們提供了 2.6 億美元的資金，包括 2.22 億美元的現有貸款承諾和 5900 萬美元的新貸款，其中 3800 萬美元已到位。

These were offset by $257 million of repayments during the quarter, more than half of which were office loans. Our portfolio ended the quarter at $16.9 billion with a weighted average risk rating of 2.8, of which 93% represents senior secured first mortgage loans and 99% of which is floating rates.

這些被本季度 2.57 億美元的還款所抵消，其中一半以上是辦公室貸款。我們的投資組合在本季度結束時為 169 億美元，加權平均風險評級為 2.8，其中 93% 為高級有擔保第一抵押貸款，99% 為浮動利率。

On the CECL front, we increased our general reserve by $31 million in the quarter due to worsening macroeconomic conditions in our model, particularly in the U.S. office sector, bringing our general CECL reserve for Commercial Lending to $125 million.

在 CECL 方面，由於我們模型中的宏觀經濟狀況惡化，特別是在美國辦公部門，我們在本季度將我們的一般準備金增加了 3100 萬美元，使我們的商業貸款一般 CECL 準備金達到 1.25 億美元。

As a reminder, CECL requires you to estimate a life of loan loss with the forecasted macroeconomic environment being a critical component of the resulting reserve estimate. It is not a current market conditions only number like it used to be under the pre-CECL incurred loss methodology when we reserved a certain percentage of our 4 and 5 risk-rated loans. We use a third-party software to model these losses, which, in turn, utilizes macroeconomic advisers for purposes of determining the economic outlook.

提醒一下，CECL 要求您估算貸款損失的期限，預測的宏觀經濟環境是最終準備金估算的重要組成部分。當我們保留一定比例的 4 級和 5 級風險評級貸款時，這不是當前市場條件下的唯一數字，就像在 CECL 之前發生的損失方法下。我們使用第三方軟件對這些損失進行建模，進而利用宏觀經濟顧問來確定經濟前景。

If we have specific information related to a particular loan, which would suggest a loss, we would remove the loan out of the modeled general reserve category and into an asset-specific reserve. We currently have no specific reserves other than one legacy $5 million reserve on the entire balance of a retail asset in Chicago.

如果我們有與特定貸款相關的具體信息，這表明存在損失，我們會將貸款從模擬的一般準備金類別中移除，並轉入資產專用準備金。我們目前沒有特定的儲備金，除了芝加哥零售資產全部餘額的 500 萬美元遺留儲備金。

Regarding our risk ratings, we downgraded 5 loans this quarter into the 4 and 5 categories, of which 3 were U.S. office and upgraded 1 previously 4-rated loans. Jeff will speak more about these loans shortly. We also placed 2 of our 5-rated loans by nonaccrual status, a $121 million senior secured loan on an office complex in Washington, D.C. and a $42 million senior secured loan on a two-story retail in downtown Chicago, both of which we expect to foreclose upon in the near term.

關於我們的風險評級，本季度我們將 5 筆貸款下調至 4 級和 5 級，其中 3 筆為美國辦公室，並上調了 1 筆之前的 4 級貸款。 Jeff 稍後將詳細介紹這些貸款。我們還按非應計狀態發放了 5 級貸款中的 2 筆，一筆 1.21 億美元的高級擔保貸款用於華盛頓特區的辦公大樓，以及一筆 4200 萬美元的高級擔保貸款用於芝加哥市中心的兩層樓零售店，我們預計這兩者在短期內取消。

We continue to actively work towards the path of full repayment of our nonaccrual loans and REO. Once we are able to resolve them and reinvest the funds, the related equity would significantly contribute to our earnings power.

我們將繼續積極致力於全額償還非應計貸款和 REO 的道路。一旦我們能夠解決這些問題並將資金再投資，相關股權將顯著提高我們的盈利能力。

Next, I will discuss our Residential Lending business. Our on-balance sheet loan portfolio ended the quarter at $2.7 billion, including $1.7 billion of non-QM and $994 million of agency loans.

接下來，我將討論我們的住宅貸款業務。我們的資產負債表內貸款組合在本季度結束時為 27 億美元，其中包括 17 億美元的非 QM 貸款和 9.94 億美元的代理貸款。

We fully hedged the fixed rate interest rate exposure in this portfolio with our hedges having a positive mark of $107 million at quarter end, after $15 million of cash receipts in the quarter. Because of our hedge strategy, the spread mark-to-market from our lenders during the quarter actually resulted in an $80 million net cash inflow.

我們完全對沖了該投資組合中的固定利率風險敞口，我們的對沖在本季度收到 1500 萬美元的現金收入後，在季度末的對沖值為 1.07 億美元。由於我們的對沖策略，本季度我們的貸方按市值計價的價差實際上導致了 8000 萬美元的淨現金流入。

Lower projected prepayment fees benefited our retained RMBS portfolio, which increased in fair value by $15 million, ending the quarter at $428 million.

較低的預計預付款費用使我們保留的 RMBS 投資組合受益，該投資組合的公允價值增加了 1500 萬美元，本季度末達到 4.28 億美元。

Next, I will discuss our Property segment, which contributed $21 million of DE or $0.06 per share to the quarter. Of this amount, $11 million came from our Florida affordable housing fund, with $5 million from each of our master lease and medical office portfolios.

接下來，我將討論我們的房地產部門，該部門為本季度貢獻了 2100 萬美元的 DE 或每股 0.06 美元。其中，1100 萬美元來自我們的佛羅里達經濟適用房基金，500 萬美元來自我們的主租賃和醫療辦公室組合。

For the Woodstar Fund, our GAAP valuations were relatively consistent with last quarter. We are still awaiting HUD, which governs the max rents for the over 15,000 units in this portfolio to release the rent increases for 2023. We expect their announcement later this month with the increased rents taking effect in July.

對於 Woodstar 基金，我們的 GAAP 估值與上一季度相對一致。我們仍在等待 HUD，它管理著該投資組合中超過 15,000 個單元的最高租金，以發布 2023 年的租金上漲。我們預計他們將在本月晚些時候宣布，租金上漲將於 7 月生效。

Turning to Investing and Servicing. This segment contributed DE of $13 million or $0.04 per share to the quarter. In our conduit, Starwood Mortgage Capital, we originated $74 million of loans for securitization next quarter. We typically see lower securitization volume in Q1 and expect to see volumes increase over the remainder of the year.

轉向投資和服務。該部門為本季度貢獻了 1300 萬美元或每股 0.04 美元的 DE。在我們的渠道 Starwood Mortgage Capital 中，我們在下個季度為證券化提供了 7400 萬美元的貸款。我們通常會在第一季度看到較低的證券化交易量，並預計在今年剩餘時間內交易量會增加。

In our special servicer, we obtained 2 new servicing assignments totaling $1.5 billion with our named servicing portfolio, ending the quarter at $107 billion amongst the highest levels we have seen since 2016.

在我們的特殊服務商中，我們通過指定服務組合獲得了 2 項總計 15 億美元的新服務任務，本季度末達到 1070 億美元，是我們自 2016 年以來的最高水平。

Including my business segment discussion is our Infrastructure Lending segment, which contributed DE of $20 million or $0.06 per share to the quarter. We funded $160 million of new loan commitments and $15 million of pre-existing ones, which was offset by repayments totaling $204 million. The balance of the portfolio remained consistent with last quarter at $2.4 billion, which was 100% floating rate.

包括我的業務部門討論在內的是我們的基礎設施貸款部門，該部門為本季度貢獻了 2000 萬美元或每股 0.06 美元的 DE。我們為 1.6 億美元的新貸款承諾和 1500 萬美元的現有貸款承諾提供了資金，這些貸款被總額為 2.04 億美元的還款所抵消。投資組合的餘額與上一季度保持一致，為 24 億美元，為 100% 浮動利率。

During the quarter, we increased our CECL reserve by $12 million, principally for two small legacy investments from our GE acquisition in 2018. Their combined DE basis was $29 million, and both assets were placed on nonaccrual.

在本季度，我們將 CECL 儲備增加了 1200 萬美元，主要用於我們在 2018 年收購 GE 的兩項小額遺留投資。它們的合併 DE 基礎為 2900 萬美元，並且兩項資產都屬於非應計資產。

I will conclude this morning with a few comments about our liquidity and capitalization. As a reminder, 87% of our total outstanding on and off-balance sheet debt is non-mark-to-market, as is 92% of our Commercial Lending debt, with the majority having no capital markets margin call provisions at all.

今天上午，我將以關於我們的流動性和資本化的一些評論作為結束。提醒一下，我們的表內和表外未償債務總額中有 87% 是非按市值計價的，我們的商業貸款債務中有 92% 也是如此，其中大多數根本沒有資本市場追加保證金規定。

After repaying our April $250 million convertible notes and our first quarter dividend in cash, we had $620 million of liquidity as of last week. This includes $449 million of approved undrawn borrowings under our repo facilities, all of which are with global banks, represent immediately available funds and are not subject to further credit approval with the lender.

在償還了我們 4 月份的 2.5 億美元可轉換票據和第一季度現金股息後，截至上週，我們擁有 6.2 億美元的流動資金。這包括我們的回購協議下 4.49 億美元的已批准未提取借款，所有這些借款都來自全球銀行，代表可立即使用的資金，無需獲得貸款人的進一步信貸批准。

In addition to $1.5 billion of harvestable DE gains in our Property portfolio, we have $4.2 billion of unencumbered assets that together with our Term Loan B capacity can be fully levered to generate additional liquidity. Our leverage remains low with an adjusted debt to undepreciated equity ratio of just 2.5x, consistent with last quarter.

除了我們的房地產投資組合中 15 億美元的可收穫 DE 收益外，我們還有 42 億美元的未支配資產，連同我們的定期貸款 B 能力可以充分利用以產生額外的流動性。我們的槓桿率仍然很低，調整後的債務與未折舊權益的比率僅為 2.5 倍，與上一季度一致。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Rina. We added a new slide to our supplemental on Page 9, where you can now clearly see our differentiated total asset base. You will see only 13% of our assets are invested in office loans globally with just 10% in the U.S. office, including life sciences. This compares very favorably to our peers, and it's part of why you see our cumulative CRE CECL reserves of $130 million against our $28.5 billion diversified balance sheet and $7 billion of equity are lower than our peers per dollar of equity.

謝謝，麗娜。我們在第 9 頁的補充中添加了一張新幻燈片，您現在可以在其中清楚地看到我們差異化的總資產基礎。你會看到我們只有 13% 的資產投資於全球辦公室貸款，只有 10% 投資於美國辦公室，包括生命科學。這與我們的同行相比非常有利，這也是為什麼你看到我們的 1.3 億美元 CRE CECL 累積儲備與我們 285 億美元的多元化資產負債表和 70 億美元的股權相比，每美元股權低於我們的同行的部分原因。

We built STWD to perform well in normal markets and outperform in volatile ones. So we are pleased that our stock has outperformed since the Fed's aggressive rate hikes and the unprecedented spread volatility we have seen in the last year.

我們建立 STWD 以在正常市場中表現良好，並在波動市場中表現出色。因此，我們很高興我們的股票自美聯儲積極加息和去年我們看到前所未有的利差波動以來表現優於大盤。

In addition to our smaller exposure to domestic office loans, we have thematically increased our exposure away from high tax negative migration areas to lower tax positive migration areas. Following the lead of our manager, Starwood Capital, over 60% of our $5.7 billion multifamily exposure is in the Southeast and Southwest. And today, we have no loan exposure in any asset class in San Francisco, and only 1% of our loan book is in Manhattan, two of the weakest office markets in the country.

除了我們對國內辦公貸款的敞口較小外，我們還從主題上增加了我們的風險敞口，從高稅收負遷移地區轉移到低稅收正遷移地區。在我們的經理 Starwood Capital 的領導下，我們價值 57 億美元的多戶住宅投資中有超過 60% 位於東南部和西南部。而今天，我們在舊金山的任何資產類別都沒有貸款敞口，我們的貸款賬簿中只有 1% 位於曼哈頓，這是該國兩個最薄弱的寫字樓市場。

We have always run our company to a significantly lower leverage than our peer group, who also write predominantly first mortgage loans. At 2.5x debt-to-equity, we, in fact, manage our business over a full turn of leverage lower than our largest peers, despite having 25% of our equity in businesses like Residential and Infrastructure Lending that are run to significantly higher leverage by others in the public markets investing in those disciplines.

與我們的同行集團相比，我們一直以低得多的槓桿經營我們的公司，他們也主要提供第一抵押貸款。事實上，在 2.5 倍的債務股本比下，我們管理業務的槓桿率低於我們最大的同行，儘管我們在住宅和基礎設施貸款等業務中擁有 25% 的股權，這些業務的槓桿率要高得多由公開市場上的其他人投資於這些學科。

Running our business with significantly less leverage and financing it with more A-note sales, CLOs and corporate debt also narrows the range on possible liquidity needs should markets deteriorate.

以顯著降低的槓桿率經營我們的業務，並通過更多的 A 票據銷售、CLO 和公司債務為其融資，這也縮小了市場惡化時可能的流動性需求範圍。

Our loans have over 30% sponsor equity sitting behind us in the capital stack at loan origination. We are uniquely positioned to absorb volatility in underlying asset valuations should that sponsor equity become impaired as our diversified low leverage business model also benefits from almost $5 per share in unrealized gains in our owned property segment.

在貸款發放時，我們的貸款在資本堆棧中擁有超過 30% 的讚助商股權。如果贊助商股權受損，我們具有獨特的優勢來吸收基礎資產估值的波動，因為我們多元化的低杠桿業務模式也受益於我們自有房地產部門每股近 5 美元的未實現收益。

To date, in our 13-year history, our organization of over 300 real estate professionals along with the support of another 350 professionals at our manager, Starwood Capital Group, have generated significant gains on REO when we have taken loans back on to our balance sheet.

迄今為止，在我們 13 年的歷史中，我們組織了 300 多名房地產專業人士，並在我們經理喜達屋資本集團的另外 350 名專業人士的支持下，當我們將貸款收回餘額時，REO 產生了顯著收益床單。

We have tremendous internal asset management expertise across sectors and markets. We are in the process of closing our second conversion of office to residential and should borrower stumble, we have a proven track record of creating value on assets we take over.

我們擁有跨行業和市場的巨大內部資產管理專業知識。我們正在完成第二次將辦公室改造成住宅的過程，如果借款人遇到困難，我們在接管資產創造價值方面擁有良好的記錄。

In sum, our low origination LTVs, our low leverage and our almost $1.5 billion in durable property gains give us enviable cushion to run our business in volatile markets. We have, by far, the most unencumbered assets of our peer group, which we believe can be quickly levered to create liquidity, if needed, without creating incremental drag on our balance sheet when they are not.

總而言之，我們的低初始 LTV、低杠桿率和近 15 億美元的耐用財產收益為我們在動蕩的市場中開展業務提供了令人羨慕的緩衝。到目前為止，我們擁有同行集團中最不受約束的資產，我們相信如果需要的話，可以迅速利用這些資產來創造流動性，而不會在不需要時對我們的資產負債表造成增量拖累。

Despite all this, on Article Friday discussed the increase in short interest in STWD and other CRE stocks as a short on office fundamentals. It is my view that in times like this, funds indiscriminately short effector and disproportionately the largest, most liquid and lowest dividend yielding stocks like STWD.

儘管如此，週五的文章討論了 STWD 和其他 CRE 股票空頭興趣的增加，作為辦公室基本面的空頭。我認為，在這樣的時期，基金不分青紅皂白地做空效應股，不成比例地買入像 STWD 這樣規模最大、流動性最強和股息收益率最低的股票。

We believe in our differentiated diverse low-leverage model and think there is significant short covering upside when people who understand the resilience of our business model realize that our unique company, which has historically traded at 122% of book value in our 13-year history is mispriced at today's level.

我們相信我們差異化的多元化低杠桿模型，並認為當了解我們商業模式彈性的人們意識到我們獨特的公司（在我們 13 年的歷史中一直以賬面價值的 122% 進行交易）時，空頭回補有很大的好處在今天的水平上被錯誤定價。

I said earlier that U.S. office and life science loans make up only 10% of our diversified asset base today. Holding the rest of our $28.5 billion balance sheet constant versus just onetime book value, the market is effectively pricing in 50% losses on our $2.7 billion U.S. office portfolio, and that is after 30-plus percent sponsor equity is depleted.

我之前說過，美國辦公和生命科學貸款目前僅占我們多元化資產基礎的 10%。保持我們 285 億美元資產負債表的其餘部分與一次性賬面價值保持不變，市場實際上在定價我們 27 億美元的美國辦公室投資組合的 50% 損失，這是在 30% 以上的讚助商股權被耗盡之後。

Versus our 13-year average price to book of 1.22x, our price today implies, we will lose 96% of our investment after borrower equity on our office loans. To state the obvious, our low leverage diversified company with large property gains seems mispriced.

與我們 13 年的平均賬面價格 1.22 倍相比，我們今天的價格表明，扣除借款人的辦公室貸款股權後，我們將損失 96% 的投資。顯而易見的是，我們擁有大量財產收益的低杠桿多元化公司似乎定價錯誤。

Rates were down significantly since we last spoke. I'm sure Barry will touch on rates, but lower rates are generally positive for CRE valuations. In our CRE lending segment, we only wrote one small loan in the quarter. And as you can imagine, our team remains focused on asset management and continuing the progress we talked about last quarter.

自從我們上次講話以來，利率大幅下降。我相信巴里會談到利率，但較低的利率通常對 CRE 估值有利。在我們的 CRE 貸款部門，我們在本季度只寫了一筆小額貸款。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們的團隊仍然專注於資產管理並繼續我們上個季度談到的進展。

Our non-office loans are generally performing very well, and in line with our original underwriting assumptions. 83% of our loans have interest rate caps in place for our fixed rate loans and an additional 11% of our book has interest reserves or guarantees. So 94% of our loans have interest rate protection in place today, offsetting a significant amount of interest rate stress for our borrowers.

我們的非辦公室貸款總體表現良好，符合我們最初的承銷假設。我們 83% 的貸款為固定利率貸款設置了利率上限，另外 11% 的賬面有利息儲備或擔保。因此，我們今天 94% 的貸款都有利率保護，抵消了借款人的巨大利率壓力。

Finally, 82% of our office exposure globally is on Class A properties. Our European office portfolio is performing very well as is our entire European loan portfolio. We have a significant competitive advantage due to our scale and decades of history investing in and lending in these less competitive markets we know very well.

最後，我們 82% 的全球辦公地點位於 A 級物業。我們的歐洲辦公室投資組合和我們的整個歐洲貸款投資組合都表現出色。由於我們的規模和在這些我們非常了解的競爭較弱的市場中投資和放貸的數十年曆史，我們具有顯著的競爭優勢。

Rina mentioned we downgraded three loans from a 4 to a 5-risk rating in the quarter. We downgraded a $197 million office loan in Irvine, California with $160 million of sponsor equity behind us due to a near-term maturity. As I mentioned last quarter, the asset is being marketed for sale and the sponsors received bids above and near our debt basis. To the loan not repay, we are considering several options, including an extension.

Rina 提到我們在本季度將三筆貸款的風險評級從 4 下調至 5。由於近期到期，我們降低了加利福尼亞州爾灣 1.97 億美元的辦公室貸款的評級，以及我們身後的 1.6 億美元的讚助商股權。正如我在上個季度提到的那樣，該資產正在上市銷售，贊助商收到了高於和接近我們債務基礎的出價。對於無法償還的貸款，我們正在考慮多種選擇，包括延期。

The second downgrade is our $156 million loan on a property in Brooklyn that we classify as office, but is more likely to be converted accretively at our basis into mixed-use multifamily and/or self-storage.

第二次降級是我們對布魯克林一處房產的 1.56 億美元貸款，我們將其歸類為辦公室，但更有可能在我們的基礎上以增值方式轉化為混合用途的多戶住宅和/或自助倉儲。

Last quarter, I mentioned that this asset benefits from cross collateralization against the new build multifamily portfolio, which are the only other assets in this sponsor's $500 million fund. The fund has no uncalled capital to support debt service shortfalls and CapEx needs. Thus, we have cautiously downgraded it.

上個季度，我提到該資產受益於對新建多戶投資組合的交叉抵押，這是該贊助商 5 億美元基金中唯一的其他資產。該基金沒有未催繳的資金來支持償債缺口和資本支出需求。因此，我們謹慎地將其降級。

Given the excess collateral, we continue to feel secure in our very low resulting basis on this property that we believe is fully recoverable.

鑑於過多的抵押品，我們繼續對我們認為可以完全收回的該財產的極低結果基礎感到安全。

The final downgrade to 5 is on a $120 million office asset in downtown D.C. that we have not foreclosed on yet, but are working on a consensual transfer. The asset is 100% vacant since the departure of a GSA tenant, which was a known event at the time of underwriting.

最終降級至 5 級的是位於 D.C. 市中心的價值 1.2 億美元的辦公資產，我們尚未取消抵押品贖回權，但正在努力進行雙方同意的轉讓。自 GSA 租戶離開以來，該資產 100% 空置，這在承保時是眾所周知的事件。

The original business plan with this top 5 global sponsor who invested almost $70 million of equity in the asset was to completely renovate and add additional square footage to the top of this building, which they are no longer pursuing in this environment. Having the building empty is actually a benefit to us, given no detenanting costs and minimal operating expenses as we consider alternative uses for the property.

這家投資了近 7000 萬美元資產的全球前 5 大贊助商最初的商業計劃是徹底翻新並在這座建築的頂部增加額外的面積，他們在這種環境下不再追求。讓建築物空置實際上對我們有好處，因為在我們考慮該物業的其他用途時，沒有任何費用和最低的運營費用。

Assuming we take title, we are already under LOI with a new sponsor to purchase the asset at our loan basis and convert it to multifamily. Most office assets don't convert easily to residential because of location, floor place, windows or elevator configuration, but we see this asset as a relatively easy conversion like the asset we just completed the sale on in Honolulu in the quarter.

假設我們獲得所有權，我們已經與新贊助商簽訂了意向書，以我們的貸款為基礎購買資產並將其轉換為多戶家庭。由於位置、樓層、窗戶或電梯配置，大多數寫字樓資產不容易轉換為住宅，但我們認為該資產是相對容易轉換的，就像我們本季度剛剛在火奴魯魯完成出售的資產一樣。

The two loans we downgraded from 3 to 4 in the quarter are relatively small loans. The first is a $65 million exposure to a mixed-use asset in Phoenix that we downgraded since the sponsor declared they will no longer put money into it.

我們在本季度將評級從 3 下調至 4 的兩筆貸款是相對較小的貸款。第一個是 6500 萬美元的鳳凰城混合用途資產風險敞口，自發起人宣布他們將不再投入資金以來，我們已將其降級。

The sponsor has sold components of the asset to date worth $49 million, and we expect this loan to pay down significantly with the borrowers component sales in the coming months, and we expect full repayment on the loan at the completion of this process.

贊助商迄今已出售價值 4900 萬美元的資產部分，我們預計這筆貸款將在未來幾個月內隨著借款人部分的出售而大幅償還，我們預計在此過程完成後將全額償還貸款。

The other is our only multifamily loan in our 4s and 5s, a $60 million loan we made on an asset in the Pacific Northwest, which we are downgrading due to slow lease-up and cash flow shortfalls with rates higher. The sponsor is expected to sign a mezzanine loan term sheet imminently, which would pay down our loan and likely result in a near-term risk rating upgrade.

另一個是我們在 4 歲和 5 歲時唯一的多戶貸款，這是我們為太平洋西北地區的一項資產提供的 6000 萬美元貸款，由於租賃緩慢和現金流短缺以及利率較高，我們正在降級。預計贊助商將立即簽署夾層貸款條款清單，這將償還我們的貸款，並可能導致近期風險評級升級。

We have final maturities in 2023 on 16 loans, representing less than 10% of our loan book, and only half of that is office. Two of those office loans are risk rated 4 or 5. The DC conversion I just spoke about and a 50% LTC loan we made on an office building in Houston that we extended 6 months, while the sponsor explores a sale or recapitalization.

我們有 16 筆貸款在 2023 年最終到期，占我們貸款賬簿的不到 10%，其中只有一半是辦公室貸款。其中兩筆辦公室貸款的風險等級為 4 或 5。我剛才談到的 DC 轉換和我們在休斯頓的一棟辦公樓上提供的 50% LTC 貸款，我們延長了 6 個月，同時贊助商探索出售或資本重組。

Rina mentioned our liquidity, and I will note that we expect the largest equity return in our 2023 final maturities, $125 million of equity to pay off on Friday, which will add $125 million to the liquidity numbers Rina mentioned tomorrow.

Rina 提到了我們的流動性，我會指出，我們預計 2023 年最終到期的股票回報率最高，1.25 億美元的股權將在周五還清，這將為 Rina 明天提到的流動性數字增加 1.25 億美元。

Finally, I will touch briefly on our three REO assets. On our mixed-use asset in Los Angeles, we continue to work on non-office conversion strategies, but at the same time, are receiving bids, which we expect will be at or near our basis.

最後，我將簡要介紹一下我們的三項 REO 資產。在我們位於洛杉磯的混合用途資產上，我們繼續致力於非辦公室轉換策略，但與此同時，我們正在接受投標，我們預計這些投標將達到或接近我們的基礎。

On our former office asset in Houston, we are under a signed PSA at our basis for residential conversion. And on the condos on the Upper West side, we began selling renovated units this quarter and are under contract on three of our remaining units for just over $10 million.

在我們位於休斯頓的前辦公資產上，我們在住宅轉換的基礎上簽署了 PSA。在上西區的公寓中，我們本季度開始銷售經過翻新的單元，並以超過 1000 萬美元的價格簽訂了剩下的三個單元的合同。

In Residential Lending, we continue to work to lower our financing costs as more banks aggressively push into residential financing. Loan prices have increased as rates have moderated. And as Rina said, unlike a lot of the banks you have recently read about, we fully interest rate hedge this book and have received $107 million in gains on that rate hedge to date.

在住宅貸款方面，隨著越來越多的銀行積極進軍住宅融資領域，我們繼續努力降低融資成本。隨著利率下降，貸款價格上漲。正如 Rina 所說，與你最近讀到的許多銀行不同，我們對這本書進行了全面的利率對沖，迄今為止，該利率對沖已獲得 1.07 億美元的收益。

Our Property segment continues to perform very well. And Rina mentioned, we are waiting for HUD to provide us with allowable rent increases for 2023 this month, which will be passed through midyear. These increases are CPI and median income base, and I would expect them to be in excess of 6%, which will increase income and at the same cap rate book value in the coming quarters.

我們的房地產部門繼續表現出色。 Rina 提到，我們正在等待 HUD 本月向我們提供 2023 年允許的租金上漲，這將在年中通過。這些增長是 CPI 和中位數收入基礎，我預計它們將超過 6%，這將在未來幾個季度增加收入並保持相同的資本化率賬面價值。

Our Energy Infrastructure business continues to provide very attractive returns. We invested $160 million in the quarter at high teens levered returns and we believe we can continue to grow this book accretively in the coming years.

我們的能源基礎設施業務繼續提供極具吸引力的回報。我們在本季度以十幾歲的高槓桿回報投資了 1.6 億美元，我們相信我們可以在未來幾年繼續增加這本書的增長。

Finally, in REIS, we continue to make money in a choppy CMBS market with $13 million of earnings in the quarter. As Rina said, LNR is named special servicer on $107 billion of loans, and we expect to earn higher fees if this high-rate credit cycle continues beyond what the forward curve is telling us.

最後，在 REIS 中，我們繼續在動蕩的 CMBS 市場中賺錢，本季度收益為 1300 萬美元。正如 Rina 所說，LNR 被指定為 1070 億美元貸款的特殊服務商，如果這種高利率信貸週期繼續超出遠期曲線告訴我們的範圍，我們預計將獲得更高的費用。

Also this quarter, LNR again received the highest servicer rating by Fitch of CSS1. We are the only special servicer with this highest rating and are proud of the hard work it recognized.

同樣在本季度，LNR 再次獲得惠譽對 CSS1 的最高服務評級。我們是唯一一家獲得最高評級的特殊服務商，並為它認可的辛勤工作感到自豪。

With that, I will turn the call to Barry.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給巴里。

Thanks, Zach, Rina and Jeff. Good morning, everyone. While we joined the day after the Fed did their 10th increase in a row. I think I've been pretty clear what I think of this. It is bordering on idiotic. The biggest victims of this are the regional banks, which every quarter point is a $50 billion loss in their books. Last we checked, a point is $200 billion, and they're going to have two choices.

謝謝，Zach、Rina 和 Jeff。大家，早安。而我們在美聯儲連續第 10 次加息後的第二天加入。我想我已經很清楚我是怎麼想的了。它近乎愚蠢。最大的受害者是地區性銀行，每四分之一點的賬面損失就達 500 億美元。上次我們查過，一點是 2000 億美元，他們將有兩個選擇。

They're going to take 100 banks back and have to sell their loans as they're doing in assets, as they're doing in Signature and Silicon Valley Bank, and it doesn't look like they did because they supported the Federal, the First Republic acquisition. And you'll have RTC too. Clearly, the government will have to step in and save all these banks, who really are a victim of the Fed zone stupidity, frankly.

他們將收回 100 家銀行，並且不得不出售他們的貸款，就像他們在資產方面所做的那樣，就像他們在 Signature 和矽谷銀行所做的那樣，看起來他們這樣做並不是因為他們支持聯邦，第一共和國收購。你也會有 RTC。顯然，政府將不得不介入並拯救所有這些銀行，坦率地說，它們確實是美聯儲愚蠢行為的受害者。

I mean you had a situation where the government set the rules. They said, you buy treasuries with all these deposits that are floating -- flooding your banks because of the stimulus we've put in, buy treasuries have advantaged tax capital regulations and you don't have the market to market. And it's kind of like if you had a hurricane or told everyone, you'd never experienced a hurricane. So why would you buy a hurricane insurance?

我的意思是你遇到了政府制定規則的情況。他們說，你用所有這些浮動的存款購買國債——由於我們推出的刺激措施，銀行大量湧入，購買國債有利於稅收資本監管，你沒有市場到市場。這有點像如果你遇到了颶風或告訴所有人，你從未經歷過颶風。那你為什麼要買颶風保險呢？

Now I think what the management's missed is the pace at which the deposits could disappear obviously helped by social media today. But realistically, you have a really nearly insolvent regional banking system based on the rules that were set up by a government that has 30,000 people to monitor the banks. That's between the FDIC, the OCC and the Federal Reserve itself, but we are filled with PhDs running models that make no sense. There's no question that credit will decline that's already the highest credit in history.

現在我認為管理層錯過的是今天社交媒體明顯幫助存款消失的速度。但實際上，根據由 30,000 人監督銀行的政府制定的規則，你有一個幾乎資不抵債的區域銀行系統。那是在 FDIC、OCC 和美聯儲本身之間，但我們到處都是運行毫無意義的模型的博士。毫無疑問，信用將下降，這已經是歷史上最高的信用。

And you see the markets vote on this with the steepest yield curve inversion in the history of this country. So despite the fact that some people call for credibility, besides the regional banks and obviously, real assets, the other victim is the federal government itself. The only benefit to them is they're going to have to spend more on interest expense, and their deficit will grow because the value of assets drop, capital gains or income and other receipts drop. So the deficit widens.

你會看到市場以該國歷史上最陡峭的收益率曲線倒掛對此進行投票。因此，儘管有些人呼籲信譽，但除了地區銀行和顯然是實物資產之外，另一個受害者是聯邦政府本身。對他們來說唯一的好處是他們將不得不在利息支出上花費更多，而他們的赤字將會增加，因為資產價值下降、資本收益或收入以及其他收入下降。所以赤字擴大了。

I continue to worry that he hits the point of no return, where people realize that a $3 trillion interest expense is significantly higher than the $480 billion it ran in '21, which is 5% on $32 trillion only head in one direction. So I'm done with my speech about that because I really understand that our view is we need to navigate between now and then. Then is, when the yield curve says at the end of this year will be 80 basis points lighter on LIBOR. But let's forget about that, let's say, a year from now or even 1.5 years from now. And clearly, the economy should slow given what's going on in the -- with interest rates, decline in manufacturing.

我繼續擔心他會走到盡頭，人們意識到 3 萬億美元的利息支出明顯高於 21 年的 4800 億美元，後者是 32 萬億美元的 5%，只朝著一個方向發展。所以我的演講結束了，因為我真的理解我們的觀點是我們需要在現在和那時之間導航。然後是，當收益率曲線顯示今年年底 LIBOR 將降低 80 個基點時。但是讓我們忘記這一點，比方說，從現在起一年甚至 1.5 年後。顯然，考慮到利率和製造業的下滑，經濟應該放緩。

The service sector remains strong. There's no doubt. The travel will remain strong. We'll see how long this can continue. But it does defy most logic. And obviously, employment is solid, and that is what's keeping the economy alive, but the Fed seems adding in to increase unemployment and so you see this inverted yield curve, more or less suggesting that we're going to go into not a shallow recession as Powell said yesterday, but something more severe.

服務業依然強勁。毫無疑問。旅行將保持強勁。我們將看看這能持續多久。但它確實違背了大多數邏輯。顯然，就業是穩固的，這就是保持經濟活力的原因，但美聯儲似乎增加了失業率，所以你看到這條倒掛的收益率曲線，或多或少表明我們將進入一個不小的衰退正如鮑威爾昨天所說，但更嚴厲。

Let's talk about the real estate markets because, again, we were not the reason for this recession or this crisis. This was all the government too much money, too few goods, then a lot of goods and now dwindling money, prices went up. They're now coming down. Oil is $68 a barrel. The only person who seems to not know inflation is going down is Chairman Powell and his merry band of Fed governors.

讓我們談談房地產市場，因為我們不是這次衰退或這場危機的原因。這都是政府錢太多，貨太少，然後貨很多，現在錢少了，物價就漲了。他們現在下來了。油價是每桶 68 美元。似乎唯一不知道通貨膨脹正在下降的人是鮑威爾主席和他那群快樂的美聯儲理事。

So in the real estate markets, you have like 3 or 4 superb segments that are really behaving quite well. Anything in single-family and multifamily is doing fine. Industrial remains fine. Hotels are record high. Occupancies and rates, you saw Marriott's earnings this week. Hilton reported earlier in the week. Business travel remains good. Leisure travel remains good. The only -- real data centers are good. Life sciences are good.

所以在房地產市場上，你有大約 3 或 4 個非常好的細分市場，它們表現得非常好。單戶和多戶的任何東西都很好。工業仍然很好。酒店創歷史新高。入住率和房價，您可以看到萬豪本週的收益。希爾頓在本週早些時候報導。商務旅行仍然很好。休閒旅遊依然不錯。唯一的——真正的數據中心是好的。生命科學很好。

The only issue is office. Office is a story. It's a very -- it is a tale of countries anywhere, but the United States. Office is full. We have a large exposure to Germany in the office market. Not only are our buildings remaining full, but rents are actually rising across Germany, 5% to 7% in places like Berlin, Hamburg, Munich.

唯一的問題是辦公室。辦公室是一個故事。這是一個非常 - 這是一個關於任何地方國家的故事，但美國除外。辦公室已滿。我們在寫字樓市場對德國有很大的敞口。不僅我們的建築物保持滿員狀態，而且整個德國的租金實際上都在上漲，在柏林、漢堡和慕尼黑等地上漲了 5% 至 7%。

In the U.S., you have a tale of city by city. You have the bluish states, the Chicago, the West Coast, New York, really experiencing maybe 2 days a week in some cases. I was recently with one of the state pension plans in California, and there are 2 days a week. They own the building they're in. It's sort of a shame, but that is what's happened in the U.S. It is unique to the U.S.

在美國，每個城市都有一個故事。你有藍色的州，芝加哥，西海岸，紐約，在某些情況下真的每周可能有 2 天。我最近參加了加利福尼亞州的一項國家養老金計劃，每周有 2 天。他們擁有他們所在的建築物。這有點遺憾，但這就是美國發生的事情。它是美國獨有的。

And then in the office market, you have a bifurcation. The good buildings are full. They're holding their rents and is actually hard to get into. We recently even tried to renegotiate a lease in San Francisco of our own Starwood Capital Group lease. The landlord insisted on a 10-year deal. We wanted a 5-year deal. We sell it on a 7-year deal. My team wanted to be in that building. I wanted them to be in a big building that they'd be happy in.

然後在寫字樓市場，你有一個分歧。好樓已滿。他們正在持有他們的租金，實際上很難進入。我們最近甚至試圖重新談判我們自己的喜達屋資本集團在舊金山的租約。房東堅持要一份 10 年的合同。我們想要一份 5 年的合同。我們以 7 年的合約出售它。我的團隊想在那棟樓裡。我希望他們住在一棟他們會很開心的大房子裡。

So you can see that it is a city-by-city, market-by-market underwriting exercise and you are throwing -- or the markets are throwing, and the federal government is throwing the baby out with the bath water. The federal government make no mistake is leaning across all the banks, big and small, and saying reduce your exposure to the office segment. I don't know what they think is going to happen to a $3 trillion asset class, but it will take down the banks.

所以你可以看到這是一個逐個城市、逐個市場的承銷活動，你在投擲——或者市場在投擲，而聯邦政府正在把嬰兒連同洗澡水一起倒掉。聯邦政府毫無疑問地向所有銀行傾斜，無論大小，都說要減少對辦公部門的風險敞口。我不知道他們認為 3 萬億美元的資產類別會發生什麼，但它會摧毀銀行。

When you look at the regional mix, we're marking their securities to market and seeing that they are virtually insolvent. Those are their treasuries, which are money good. We haven't really even touched their CRE books. And obviously, they're 4x is dependent on CRE lending as are the major banks or 28% of their assets, and it's a $1.9 trillion of loans. So it is a serious situation that I hope will improve as the Fed realizes what it's doing. Our friends in the industry talk to the Fed, but they are seeking credibility. So I guess they're taking credibility as destroying the U.S. economy.

當您查看區域組合時，我們正在將他們的證券標記為市場並看到他們實際上資不抵債。那些是他們的國庫，是很好的貨幣。我們甚至還沒有真正接觸過他們的 CRE 書籍。很明顯，他們是 4 倍依賴於 CRE 貸款，主要銀行或 28% 的資產也是如此，這是一筆 1.9 萬億美元的貸款。所以這是一個嚴重的情況，我希望隨著美聯儲意識到它正在做的事情而有所改善。我們的業內朋友與美聯儲交談，但他們正在尋求可信度。所以我猜他們是在把信譽視為破壞美國經濟。

Anyway, in this morass, you want to lend to get good assets that have bad balance sheets. And they weren't bad per se when we started, but they become stretched when interest rates go from 0% to 5%. And so those are the assets that actually as an equity player. Starwood is an equity player. We have $120 billion of assets. We don't want to take them back, but we have made money taking back assets every time we have done it in our 12-year history.

無論如何，在這個泥潭里，你想藉貸以獲得資產負債表不佳的優質資產。當我們開始時它們本身並不糟糕，但當利率從 0% 上升到 5% 時它們變得捉襟見肘。因此，這些是實際上作為股權參與者的資產。喜達屋是股權參與者。我們擁有 1200 億美元的資產。我們不想收回它們，但在我們 12 年的歷史中，每次收回資產時，我們都賺了錢。

And as an equity player, whether it's the conversion of our museum building in Los Angeles or the new building we got from a major sponsor in Washington, D.C., we're confident we'll recover, if not every dollar, then most every dollar across the board. And if we have more money, we might actually take on the development ourselves.

作為股權參與者，無論是我們在洛杉磯的博物館大樓的改建，還是我們從華盛頓特區的主要贊助商處獲得的新大樓，我們有信心我們會收回，即使不是每一美元，也是大部分每一美元一刀切。如果我們有更多的錢，我們實際上可能會自己進行開發。

We actually -- those of you who have been with us for a long time, we started Starwood Financial, that's today called iStar Financial, and they survived their 2007-2008 crisis, took back tons of assets and started to build real value for their shareholders. We will make more money as an equity REIT than we will as a debt REIT, but we don't expect to be there.

實際上，我們——你們這些長期與我們在一起的人，我們創立了喜達屋金融，即今天的 iStar Financial，他們在 2007-2008 年的危機中倖存下來，收回了大量資產，並開始為他們創造真正的價值股東。作為股權房地產投資信託基金，我們將比作為債務房地產投資信託基金賺更多的錢，但我們預計不會出現這種情況。

But we would be delighted -- take our multifamily book, which is 33% of our loan book, not including the $2 billion of multifamily own on balance sheet, which are affordable housing that remains solid. And I would expect the rent increase to be above 8%, 9% that we'll see this month from the federal government for those assets in the asset class.

但我們會很高興——以我們的多戶家庭賬簿為例，它占我們貸款賬簿的 33%，不包括資產負債表上 20 億美元的多戶家庭，這些都是經濟適用房。我預計本月我們將從聯邦政府看到的資產類別中的這些資產的租金增幅將超過 8%、9%。

But going back to that multifamily book, the debt yield stabilized on that book is a 7 1. I would be delighted if we would take every single asset back. I don't think that will happen, but that would make it the cheapest REIT in the United States, including all the fallen angels at that cap rate.

但回到那本多戶家庭賬簿，該賬簿上穩定的債務收益率為 7 1。如果我們能收回每一項資產，我會很高興。我認為這不會發生，但這將使它成為美國最便宜的房地產投資信託基金，包括所有處於該資本化率的墮落天使。

So we would be very happy to see those assets on our balance sheet. We don't think we'll see or maybe one asset in that portfolio in a city that was hit by the George Floyd fallout crisis. It's not coming to us yet. It's just leasing slower than we anticipated.

所以我們很高興在我們的資產負債表上看到這些資產。我們認為我們不會在一個受到喬治·弗洛伊德危機影響的城市看到或可能在該投資組合中看到一項資產。它還沒有來找我們。它只是租賃速度比我們預期的要慢。

So we do think the economy is going to slow, and our job is really to manage through the cycle, keep our liquidity high. Obviously, our stock is an intoxicating value at these levels. But caution is the right word for us as we play defense and decide when again, we'll go on offense.

所以我們確實認為經濟會放緩，我們的工作實際上是管理週期，保持高流動性。顯然，我們的股票在這些水平上是一個令人陶醉的價值。但當我們進行防守並決定何時再次進攻時，謹慎對我們來說是正確的。

We are, again, somewhat excited by this. You should see that -- note that we are loan-to-values. We're 60% to 65%. So again, when we get assets back, we're getting them back at an attractive basis that allows us to do things the prior borrower couldn't.

我們對此再次感到有些興奮。你應該看到 - 請注意我們是貸款價值。我們是 60% 到 65%。因此，再次重申，當我們收回資產時，我們是在一個有吸引力的基礎上收回它們，這使我們能夠做之前借款人做不到的事情。

Perfect example, as Jeff mentioned, was that building in D.C., which works as a residential conversion because we funded $0.60 of the cost. It wouldn't work as an office conversion. So it's under LOI. We'll see if we can get rid of it.

正如 Jeff 提到的，完美的例子是 D.C. 的那棟建築，它用作住宅改造，因為我們資助了 0.60 美元的成本。它不能用作辦公室轉換。所以它在 LOI 之下。我們看看能不能擺脫它。

And you should know also that we believe we can make our earnings with no new investments. That is a benefit of having floating rate debt. Having said that, between nonaccrual and REO assets, if we could put that capital to work, which we intend to do over the coming months or, let's say, 6 months, we could earn an incremental $0.30 to $0.40 a share. That's between earning a 12, which would be easy today on the new capital and also not having to spend the money. We do carrying those assets until we can put them back -- or sell them and put them back in the market.

你還應該知道，我們相信我們可以在沒有新投資的情況下賺取收益。這是擁有浮動利率債務的好處。話雖如此，在非應計資產和 REO 資產之間，如果我們能夠將這些資本用於我們打算在未來幾個月或比方說 6 個月內進行的工作，我們可以獲得每股 0.30 美元至 0.40 美元的增量收益。這介於賺取 12 分之間，這在今天使用新資本很容易，也不必花錢。我們確實持有這些資產，直到我們可以把它們放回去——或者賣掉它們並放回市場。

So I also want to highlight what Jeff said that our lending book really did mirror the strategy of our equity book, which is we have very little -- no exposure to San Francisco and de minimis exposure to Manhattan, which are two very difficult markets right now. These states are running massive budget deficits. And the only way they can cover them is to continue to increase taxes, which, of course, create this negative cycle for both cities, where they can't support their social infrastructure.

因此，我還想強調 Jeff 所說的，我們的貸款賬簿確實反映了我們股票賬簿的策略，即我們幾乎沒有接觸過舊金山，也沒有接觸過曼哈頓，這是兩個非常困難的市場，對吧現在。這些州正在運行巨額預算赤字。而他們能夠解決這些問題的唯一方法是繼續增加稅收，這當然會為兩個城市造成這種負循環，因為他們無法支持他們的社會基礎設施。

So in summary, I think we feel confident we'll navigate through the cycle. It is choppy. The headlines are bad. We do expect there will be losses here and there, but we also expect that we'll begin to offset them over time. We do have this unique business model and I'm sitting in Eleonore's offices in Miami today. We have 300 people that are foaming at the mouth ready for the what the market assumes will be a massive onslaught of defaults and restructurings required in the commercial real estate industry.

因此，總而言之，我認為我們有信心渡過這個週期。這是波濤洶湧的。頭條新聞很糟糕。我們確實預計會有一些損失，但我們也預計我們會隨著時間的推移開始抵消這些損失。我們確實擁有這種獨特的商業模式，今天我正坐在 Eleonore 在邁阿密的辦公室裡。我們有 300 人口吐白沫，準備迎接市場假設的商業房地產行業所需的大規模違約和重組衝擊。

So they act as an enormous hedge for us, and it's different -- makes us different than then the other business in the sector. We have the owned real estate assets, which are material. The lending business is only 60% of our earnings today. So we have many other cylinders that will hopefully function even better and offsetting the softness in the lending portfolio that we are well positioned for what we think we're going to see over the next 12 months.

因此，它們對我們來說是一種巨大的對沖，而且它是不同的——使我們不同於該行業的其他企業。我們擁有自己的房地產資產，這些資產很重要。貸款業務僅占我們今天收入的 60%。因此，我們還有許多其他圓柱體，它們有望發揮更好的作用，並抵消我們為未來 12 個月內我們認為將會看到的情況做好準備的貸款組合的疲軟。

So with that, I want to thank our team, which remains dedicated and focused on navigating through this crisis. This is a Fed-induced crisis. The beginning of -- the government did all of this. The government did all the stimulus package. The government created the inflation by throwing money at everyone. Some of it went offshore apparently.

因此，我要感謝我們的團隊，他們仍然致力於並專注於度過這場危機。這是美聯儲引發的危機。開始——政府做了所有這一切。政府做了所有的刺激計劃。政府通過向每個人扔錢來製造通貨膨脹。其中一些顯然離岸了。

And then the government decided that inflation were not to be transient, and then increase interest rates the fastest pace in history, and it isn't the level of rates at the pace at which we got there. And then the set of rules for the banks that made in hindsight very little sense. And HDM would be a lovely thing for us to have. We don't have it really.

然後政府決定通貨膨脹不會是暫時的，然後以歷史上最快的速度提高利率，這不是我們到達那裡的速度的利率水平。然後是一套事後看來毫無意義的銀行規則。 HDM 對我們來說將是一件可愛的事情。我們真的沒有。

And as you see, because we are not a bank, we hedged our RMBS exposure. We -- our interest expense -- our hedges covered 100% of our losses in that book and we have no real exposure to rates. So we behaved as probably the regional banks should have behaved, but we're told by the government they didn't have to do.

如您所見，因為我們不是銀行，所以我們對沖了我們的 RMBS 敞口。我們——我們的利息支出——我們的對沖覆蓋了那本書中 100% 的損失，我們沒有真正的利率風險。所以我們的行為很可能是地區性銀行應該做的，但政府告訴我們他們不必這樣做。

So you can blame management, or you can blame the Fed, but I only hold the management responsible for not understanding how fast deposits could leave, but $42 billion in a single day. That also was a world record. That was a swan. And now, of course, with ETFs, the regional banks are facing serious issues that the government is going to have to cover.

所以你可以責怪管理層，也可以責怪美聯儲，但我只認為管理層不了解存款能以多快的速度離開，而是一天 420 億美元。那也是一項世界紀錄。那是一隻天鵝。現在，當然，有了 ETF，地區性銀行正面臨政府必須解決的嚴重問題。

Not every bank has the franchise of First Republic. And many of these banks won't have residual value. And it is a criminal to put all these people out of business. These people that work at these banks, it is not right, and it should all be on the Fed. It's their fault. So they did this, and they don't need to be a blessed for killing inflation at what cost. You can't manage the employment rate United States with 0.25-point interest rating increase.

並非每家銀行都擁有第一共和國的特許經營權。而且其中許多銀行將沒有剩餘價值。讓所有這些人破產是一種犯罪行為。在這些銀行工作的這些人，這是不對的，應該全部交給美聯儲。這是他們的錯。所以他們這樣做了，他們不需要因為不惜一切代價抑制通貨膨脹而受到祝福。你無法通過提高 0.25 個百分點的利率來管理美國的就業率。

So with that, which is kind of an aggressive line of part, but you know how I feel. Inflation will fall as soon as the rent index, they're delayed. Rent index gets included in the CPI. We should be in the 2s by the fourth quarter. I think it's a shame. There's no point to doing what they're doing, and I don't know who they're trying to get credibility with, but it's just not the right thing to do for this country at this time.

因此，這是一種激進的部分，但你知道我的感受。通脹會隨著租金指數的下降而下降，它們被推遲了。租金指數包含在 CPI 中。到第四節，我們應該在 2s。我認為這是一種恥辱。做他們正在做的事情毫無意義，我不知道他們想贏得誰的信任，但目前對這個國家來說這不是正確的做法。

So with that, and my diatribe is over, we're going to take questions. Thank you all.

因此，我的謾罵結束了，我們將開始提問。謝謝你們。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Stephen Laws with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stephen Laws 和 Raymond James。

Congrats on a solid quarter, and I appreciate the new Page 9. That's helpful to look at the company that way.

祝賀一個穩定的季度，我很欣賞新的第 9 頁。這有助於以這種方式看待公司。

Rina, I'd like to start with special servicing and maybe leverage off Barry's comments. If we've got all of this debt maturity coming, whatever amount trillion something over the next 2 to 3 years. When you look at your special servicing book, I think it's only got about $5 billion in active right now, how should we think about that number or what the range of that active servicing book could be over the next 12 or 24 months?

Rina，我想從特殊服務開始，也許可以參考 Barry 的評論。如果我們的所有這些債務都到期了，那麼在未來 2 到 3 年內，無論數万億。當您查看您的特殊服務賬簿時，我認為它目前只有大約 50 億美元的活躍資金，我們應該如何考慮這個數字，或者在未來 12 或 24 個月內該活躍服務賬簿的範圍是多少？

And then kind of what would the resulting revenue be at those ranges, as you think about that working through the system as transaction volumes increase.

然後，當您考慮隨著交易量的增加而通過系統工作時，在這些範圍內產生的收入會是多少。

Thanks, Stephen. Good to hear from you. It's Jeff. The way I think about the CMBS book is sort of simple. You went through a period from 2008 to 2011, where there was really no CMBS. You had a little bit in 2012, and 2013 was the first year above $100 billion again. We maintained above that and grew it through 2019 and beyond.

謝謝，斯蒂芬。很高興聽到你的消息。是傑夫。我對 CMBS 這本書的看法很簡單。你經歷了從 2008 年到 2011 年的一段時期，那段時間真的沒有 CMBS。你在 2012 年有一點點，2013 年是再次超過 1000 億美元的第一年。我們保持在這一水平之上，並在 2019 年及以後實現增長。

And you're now starting to see those 2013 originations come on a 10-year. A lot of them were IO. They don't tend to add significant cash flow with 2 to 4x debt service coverage at origination. So they make it to the 10th year. And at the 10th year, we may see some fall in.

現在，您開始看到 2013 年的原創作品進入 10 年。其中很多是 IO。他們往往不會在發起時以 2 到 4 倍的償債覆蓋率增加大量現金流。所以他們堅持到了第 10 年。在第 10 年，我們可能會看到一些下降。

So we're just at the beginning of what will be a bigger wave of maturities. There's been a lot written about those maturities, but the CMBS market is just starting in the maturity cycle. So when something does mature and it gets put to our special and we're a little over $5 billion, as you said today, we'll start earning ticking fees for the next year, 1.5 years as we maybe reposition more work to sell the asset and then we get the largest fee at the end.

因此，我們正處於更大的到期浪潮的開始。關於這些期限的文章很多，但 CMBS 市場才剛剛進入成熟週期。因此，當某些東西確實成熟並投入我們的特價時，我們的收入略高於 50 億美元，正如您今天所說，我們將開始賺取明年 1.5 年的票據費用，因為我們可能會重新定位更多工作以出售資產，然後我們最後得到最大的費用。

So even on the 2013, it's really '24 revenue. It could be '25 revenue. And as we look at the credit cycle that we're in today, if it's met with the rate environment that we're at today versus what was underwritten, we're going to have a bevy.

所以即使在 2013 年，它也確實是 24 小時的收入。這可能是 25 年的收入。當我們審視我們今天所處的信貸週期時，如果它遇到了我們今天所處的利率環境與承保的利率環境，我們將會有很多。

So when you're modeling it, you can take $107 billion. You pick the percentage of losses that you want on that, and that's what's going to add on to the $5 billion. And for sort of simple math, we tend to multiply that by 1.25% to 1.5% of that will become revenue at some point in the future, a year to 2 years later.

因此，當您對其進行建模時，您可以獲得 1070 億美元。你選擇你想要的損失百分比，這就是將增加到 50 億美元中的部分。對於某種簡單的數學，我們傾向於將其乘以 1.25% 到 1.5%，其中的收入將在未來某個時間點（一年到兩年後）變成收入。

So we're really excited about 2024, later part of '24 and heading into '25 and there's a lag and a delay there. So just wanted to make sure everybody understood that.

所以我們對 2024 年感到非常興奮，24 年的下半年和進入 25 年，那裡有一個滯後和延遲。所以只是想確保每個人都明白這一點。

That's helpful. I mean from a run rate standpoint, $7 million, $8 million, $9 million a quarter, I mean, I'm looking at my model from 2Q '13 into '15. I mean, you're running $50 million or $60 million of revenue to that segment. I mean are those levels sort of attainable. Or is it pricing and how it works a little different on...?

這很有幫助。我的意思是從運行率的角度來看，每季度 700 萬美元、800 萬美元、900 萬美元，我的意思是，我正在研究從 13 年第二季度到 15 年的模型。我的意思是，您為該細分市場帶來了 5000 萬或 6000 萬美元的收入。我的意思是這些水平是可以達到的。還是它的定價以及它在...上的運作方式有點不同？

Given what we're seeing today, that could be a (inaudible). I mean a lot of these losses will have to be slides and dice will be restructured, right? There'll be a note -- to be noted and you get paid, not at the end, you get paid when you restructure it. So that's this differ from Jeff. I mean, we might do two exits. It might be the restructuring and then the final deal then. So there'll be two opportunities for us.

鑑於我們今天所看到的情況，這可能是（聽不清）。我的意思是這些損失中有很多必須是幻燈片和骰子將被重組，對嗎？會有一張便條——要注意，你會得到報酬，而不是在最後，你會在重組時得到報酬。這就是 Jeff 的不同之處。我的意思是，我們可能會做兩個出口。可能是重組，然後是最終交易。所以我們會有兩個機會。

And I think that's probably the only way the office markets are going to get restructured. You're going to have to set a new level with an A-note and then there'll be a new capital coming with the press, and then there'll be a note for the back. And that is -- I would guarantee you that's probably 80% of the restructurings in the office market.

我認為這可能是辦公樓市場重組的唯一途徑。你將不得不用 A-note 設置一個新的水平，然後會有一個新的資本與印刷機一起出現，然後會有一個背面的註釋。那就是——我向你保證，這可能是辦公市場 80% 的重組。

Nobody wants the assets back, right? But no borrower is really keen on putting capital in, in this environment when the government telling banks don't make office loans. So the bank -- the real lender for office is the existing lender and there is no other lender. So we're happy because -- I mean, we'll get the coupons. There are tenants in place in most buildings and some, as I mentioned, are full. And most of our book is A class office building, so they'll tend to be full, but there will be capital cost.

沒有人想要回資產，對吧？但在政府告訴銀行不要發放辦公室貸款的這種環境下，沒有借款人真正熱衷於投入資金。所以銀行——辦公室的真正貸款人是現有貸款人，沒有其他貸款人。所以我們很高興，因為 - 我的意思是，我們會得到優惠券。大多數建築物都有租戶，正如我提到的，有些已經住滿了。而且我們的大部分書都是甲級寫字樓，所以他們往往會滿員，但會有資金成本。

And I think for the first time in 35 years, everyone is focused on these capital costs now. And what is the cap rate that clears the building value and make the investment of the TI worthwhile for the borrower.

我認為 35 年來第一次，每個人現在都關注這些資本成本。清除建築價值並使 TI 的投資對借款人而言值得的上限利率是多少？

It's interesting that in prior soft cycles, borrowers in strained credit conditions that we won't put the TI in. You put the TI in and we'll give you a break on the rent. And you might actually see that come to fruition because I think that's going to be an easier way to solve some of these issues.

有趣的是，在之前的軟週期中，信貸條件緊張的借款人我們不會把 TI 放進去。你把 TI 放進去，我們會給你租金減免。您實際上可能會看到它取得成果，因為我認為這將是解決其中一些問題的更簡單方法。

They tenants have the money theoretically, a Facebook, a Google and Apple, any of the -- they have the money. They can put the TI up. It's just the convention has been for the landlords to do an allowance, and then the tenants invest over that. But typically, let's take a building in New York, the allowance might be $100 a foot. The tenants putting $300 a foot into the space. They only put $300 instead of $200. If they want the space, it's not a big deal. It will just be restructured.

從理論上講，他們的租戶有錢，Facebook、谷歌和蘋果，任何一個——他們有錢。他們可以把 TI 掛起來。只是慣例是房東提供津貼，然後租戶為此投資。但通常情況下，讓我們以紐約的一棟建築為例，津貼可能是每英尺 100 美元。租戶每英尺投入 300 美元。他們只投入 300 美元而不是 200 美元。如果他們想要空間，那沒什麼大不了的。它只會被重組。

And the office asset class is not going away. It is not going to be every building is going to be empty. Frankly, we all know Amazon goes to work in 4 to 5 days, may be 9. And we'll see which tech companies follow. But I would say I just -- and I think many of you would agree, and we are so much more productive in the office than we are at home. And some industries probably a little work from home, particularly the tech industries, but that's not the majority of the country. And we will see Tesla is telling everybody stay in the office or you're fired.

辦公資產類別並沒有消失。並不是每棟建築都會空無一人。坦率地說，我們都知道亞馬遜在 4 到 5 天后開始工作，可能是 9 天。我們將看看哪些科技公司會效仿。但我會說我只是 - 我想你們中的許多人都會同意，而且我們在辦公室的工作效率比在家里高得多。一些行業可能有一點在家工作，尤其是科技行業，但這不是這個國家的大部分地區。我們會看到特斯拉告訴每個人都留在辦公室，否則你就會被解僱。

So there's quite a variety of approaches. I was talking to one of the banks yesterday, major top 4 bank. And they said, well, they noticed that a significant number of their people, 20%, 30% weren't coming in the mid-day is required and the executive said, those are the first people we will fire, and none of them will get raises. So -- and that was a blanket statement, but I think that's how management feel.

所以有各種各樣的方法。我昨天正在與其中一家銀行交談，主要的前 4 大銀行。他們說，好吧，他們注意到他們的很多人，20%、30% 沒有在中午來，這位高管說，這些是我們將解僱的第一批人，他們一個都沒有會得到加薪。所以 - 這是一個籠統的聲明，但我認為這就是管理層的感受。

And as you probably know, so the propensity they want to come back to the office is inverted with age. Managers want their people in, and the kids want to dial in from Montauk and Jackson Hole. So that is not going to be acceptable in a recession in my view.

正如您可能知道的那樣，他們想要回到辦公室的傾向隨著年齡的增長而倒轉。經理們希望他們的員工參與進來，而孩子們則希望從蒙托克和傑克遜霍爾撥入電話。因此，在我看來，這在經濟衰退中是不可接受的。

So I think you will see the office environment where people can walk by an office and say, hey, what about that? And it's not a scheduled Zoom call for 30 minutes, leaving 22 minutes empty, and you have now figuring out how to manage your time better. I mean, it's simply a better model.

所以我想你會看到這樣的辦公環境，人們可以在辦公室走過時說，嘿，那怎麼樣？而且這不是 30 分鐘的預定 Zoom 通話，還有 22 分鐘是空的，您現在已經弄清楚如何更好地管理您的時間。我的意思是，它只是一個更好的模型。

And I think we'll see that. But it's going to take some time in the U.S. It is just wild that this is just a U.S. phenomenon not in Asia, not in the Middle East, not in Europe, not in London, not in Berlin, Paris, Milan. I mean, the Europeans, they're the ones that supposed to work from home, and they're working. They're in the office.

我想我們會看到的。但這在美國需要一些時間。這只是一種美國現象，不在亞洲、不在中東、不在歐洲、不在倫敦、不在柏林、巴黎、米蘭，這真是太瘋狂了。我的意思是，歐洲人，他們應該在家工作，而且他們正在工作。他們在辦公室。

So they're traditionally less productive than we are, but we have adopted this new model of this new economy where people -- with labor so far has been able to dictate how they're going to work.

因此，傳統上他們的生產力不如我們，但我們採用了這種新經濟的新模式，在這種模式下，人們——到目前為止，勞動力已經能夠決定他們將如何工作。

It is so fascinating. We built the new headquarters in Miami and the readers in this building. The accounting team was going to work from home in the old building, which was kind of dingy and dark. We built a nice building. Everyone shows up at work. And we didn't ask anyone to come in. They all came in themselves.

它是如此迷人。我們在邁阿密建造了新的總部，讀者也在這座大樓裡。會計團隊將在老大樓的家中工作，那棟大樓有點昏暗。我們建造了一座漂亮的建築。每個人都出現在工作中。而且我們也沒叫人進來，都是自己進來的。

So -- and they like to be here. They like -- they have beautiful offices. And that's what you're going to need to compete in the world today. You cannot have cubes in dark holes. Nobody wants that environment, period. So improve your space, and you'll have a full office and a happy firm.

所以——他們喜歡來這裡。他們喜歡——他們有漂亮的辦公室。這就是您在當今世界上競爭所需要的。暗洞中不能有立方體。沒有人想要那種環境，時期。所以改善你的空間，你就會有一個完整的辦公室和一個快樂的公司。

Our next question is from Jade Rahmani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Jade Rahmani。

I'm trying to square two things. When I look at the CECL reserve, it's amongst the lowest. I know it's an accounting treatment, but it is amongst the lowest of the commercial mortgage REITs and much below that of the banks. I understand it's a different methodology. The loans are shorter in duration, floating rate. There's capital that's come in. So there's reasons for that.

我試圖對兩件事進行平方。當我查看 CECL 儲備時，它是最低的。我知道這是一種會計處理方法，但它是商業抵押房地產投資信託基金中最低的，遠低於銀行。我知道這是一種不同的方法。貸款期限較短，利率浮動。有資本進來。所以這是有原因的。

And then I look at disclosure around properties held in the lending segment that have gone through foreclosure as well as the nonaccrual nonperforming loans. And I appreciate the disclosure you've provided. It is amongst the higher end of the range. It's not as high as some of your peers, but it's higher than a few.

然後，我查看了有關已取消抵押品贖回權的貸款部門持有的財產以及非應計不良貸款的披露。我感謝您提供的披露。它屬於該範圍的高端。沒有你的一些同行高，但也高於一些。

And then from Jeff's comments loan by loan, it seems like there is a plan on many, if not most of these assets to recover value close to Starwood's basis. So just -- I think one of the reasons the stock is down today is nervousness about what's coming on credit and if the CECL reserve has to move meaningfully higher to accommodate that. Can you address that, please?

然後從傑夫逐筆評論來看，似乎有許多（如果不是大部分）這些資產的計劃，以恢復接近喜達屋基礎的價值。所以只是 - 我認為今天股票下跌的原因之一是對信貸即將發生的事情以及 CECL 儲備是否必須大幅上漲以適應這種情況感到緊張。你能解決這個問題嗎？

Yes. Listen, Jade, when something -- we've taken two into REO, and I appreciate that you heard my comments, but you seem to be very skeptical on them. So we're more than happy to go over the five assets that I said we expect full repayment on. So therefore, there's no reason to take a CECL reserve.

是的。聽著，傑德，什麼時候——我們已經把兩個人帶進了 REO，我很感激你聽到了我的評論，但你似乎對它們非常懷疑。因此，我們非常樂意討論我所說的我們希望全額償還的五項資產。因此，沒有理由採取 CECL 儲備。

We also use the most draconian version of the model because we know we're lower than our peers. We're significantly lower than our peers. By the way, we have 10% U.S. office. Our peers are in the 30% or above 30%. Like there's a reason why we're a lot lower than our peers.

我們還使用該模型的最嚴苛版本，因為我們知道我們低於同行。我們明顯低於同行。順便說一下，我們有 10% 的美國辦公室。我們的同行在30%或30%以上。就像我們比同齡人低很多是有原因的。

We just spent 25 minutes in prepared comments, hoping people would understand why we set up this business so dramatically different than our peers with massively lower leverage than our peers. Those are the reasons we have significantly lower CECL reserves.

我們只花了 25 分鐘準備評論，希望人們能理解為什麼我們建立這個業務與我們的同行有如此大的不同，槓桿比我們的同行低得多。這就是我們擁有顯著降低 CECL 儲備的原因。

Management may or may not be right in our assumption on all of those loans that we're going to get repaid fully, but we believe it today, and this is a public earnings call, and that is our best guess of where things go, but we feel very good.

管理層對我們將全額償還的所有這些貸款的假設可能正確，也可能不正確，但我們今天相信這一點，這是一次公開收益電話會議，這是我們對事情進展的最佳猜測，但我們感覺很好。

We're willing to take things into REO. We've done it. We've made money off of it. And we're using the most draconian model that we can possibly use to bring our reserves up because we know people are going to be skeptical of our reserves.

我們願意將事情納入 REO。我們做到了。我們已經從中賺錢了。我們正在使用我們可能用來提高儲備的最嚴厲的模型，因為我們知道人們會對我們的儲備持懷疑態度。

So we pushed the model as hard as we could to increase it. But this is just the reality of what we see. And it's the reality of the business that we built, which is the underlying piece to compare us to anyone else.

所以我們盡可能地推動模型來增加它。但這只是我們所看到的現實。這是我們建立的業務的現實，這是將我們與其他任何人進行比較的基礎。

Well, I'll tell you what, take -- add a turn of leverage to us, 1.5 turns versus our biggest peer of leverage to us, we would have more CECL reserves. Add 25% more office, we would have more CECL reserves. That's not how we built this business.

好吧，我會告訴你什麼——給我們增加一個槓桿，1.5 個與我們最大的槓桿同行相比，我們將擁有更多的 CECL 儲備。增加 25% 的辦公室，我們將擁有更多的 CECL 儲備。這不是我們建立這項業務的方式。

So it's sort of frustrating when the people who know us the best, don't see that, but we're happy to spend more time on any one of those assets and repeat what we said or go deeper.

因此，當最了解我們的人看不到這一點時，這有點令人沮喪，但我們很樂意花更多時間在這些資產中的任何一項上，並重複我們所說的或更深入。

I'm going to add another point, like we have marked our nonaccrual loans is like $0.80 on the dollar. So -- but obviously, we expect -- one is as low as $0.76. So we've already taken those into these. So we think they've marked appropriately, and that's one of the reasons. Again, it's a puzzle, right? And then the CECL reserve you see is formulaic. It is a math model that we don't control, but an asset is already (inaudible) which doesn't get mark down. So it's just hard to mark. And based on bids we have; we can see where we think the values are.

我要補充一點，就像我們已經將我們的非應計貸款標記為 0.80 美元一樣。所以 - 但顯然，我們預計 - 一個低至 0.76 美元。所以我們已經將這些納入其中。所以我們認為他們已經做了適當的標記，這就是原因之一。同樣，這是一個謎題，對吧？然後你看到的 CECL 儲備是公式化的。這是一個我們無法控制的數學模型，但資產已經（聽不清）不會被降價。所以很難標記。根據我們的出價；我們可以看到我們認為的價值所在。

So we've tried to be conservative. I -- don't get us wrong. You could see a drop of a dollar. You could see some book value deterioration, but the earnings power of the company is tremendous. And I think we will come out of this stronger. And when we can go back into the aggressive lending, this is the best lending environment since 2009.

所以我們試圖保持保守。我——不要誤會我們的意思。你可以看到一美元的下降。你可能會看到賬面價值有所下降，但公司的盈利能力是巨大的。而且我認為我們會變得更強大。當我們重新回到激進的貸款時，這是自 2009 年以來最好的貸款環境。

It is an amazing thing there. And we will, if we have to take the gains in our book to offset the losses. We can sell down our fee income book, which no one else has to actually preserve and actually -- obviously, there's a delta between our book value and our fair value. So it's -- our gains are 10x our CECL reserves.

這是一件了不起的事情。如果我們必須用賬面收益來抵消損失，我們會的。我們可以賣掉我們的費用收入賬簿，沒有人必須實際保留它，而且實際上——顯然，我們的賬面價值與公允價值之間存在差異。所以它是——我們的收益是我們 CECL 儲備的 10 倍。

So we -- and we're confident and this is affordable housing. This is an insured asset class where rents are being adjusted by inflation and by wage growth. I mean two really good things that are driving the rents much higher than we ever thought they would be.

所以我們 - 我們有信心，這是負擔得起的住房。這是一種保險資產類別，其中租金會根據通貨膨脹和工資增長進行調整。我的意思是有兩件非常好的事情推動租金比我們想像的要高得多。

So you have a very flexible balance sheet. And we've got our CLOs. We've got our corporate debt. There's some extraordinary opportunities today. I give you an example of the lending environment. We were -- we have a site in Midtown Manhattan. This is in our equity book. This isn't part of this company.

所以你有一個非常靈活的資產負債表。我們有我們的 CLO。我們有公司債務。今天有一些難得的機會。我舉一個借貸環境的例子。我們是——我們在曼哈頓中城有一個站點。這在我們的股權簿中。這不是這家公司的一部分。

And it's a spectacular building that's to be constructed on the Upper East Side of New York City. The single best quote we could get for a construction loan was 50% and that's 500. That is guaranteed by a massive fund. So it will be completed because it has a $10 billion fund behind it.

這是一座將建在紐約市上東區的壯觀建築。我們可以獲得的建築貸款的最佳報價是 50%，即 500。這是由大量資金保證的。所以它會完成，因為它背後有一個 100 億美元的基金。

That 500 today is 10% on a first mortgage. With light leverage, you're -- I don't know it's about 13, 14, 15. And that attachment point on that project would be half -- less than half of what properties are selling for per square foot in Manhattan today.

今天的 500 是第一次抵押貸款的 10%。輕槓桿，你是——我不知道它大約是 13、14、15。那個項目的附著點將是一半——不到今天曼哈頓每平方英尺房產售價的一半。

I mean back up the truck, empty your kids' trust funds and invest in credit today. I mean this is crazy. And the fact that there's this sort of prices that the Fed created creates enormous opportunity on the investing side today in our sector. If you know what you're doing, just be careful. Not everything is relevant today.

我的意思是備份卡車，清空您孩子的信託基金並在今天投資信貸。我的意思是這太瘋狂了。事實上，美聯儲創造了這種價格，這在當今我們行業的投資方面創造了巨大的機會。如果您知道自己在做什麼，請小心。並非一切都與今天相關。

But in the asset classes that are fundamentally performing well you have a really good opportunity. The housing complex -- well, sadly, those Fed's actions will do the opposite of what he wants long-term. He will increase supply of everything, everything. And so rents will rise again more smartly than they would have had he not crushed starts. And that's all coming to a movie theater near you. You don't get to see it yet because everybody's completing everything they started because everyone has completion guarantees to us and to every other lender in the country.

但在基本面表現良好的資產類別中，你有一個非常好的機會。住宅區——好吧，可悲的是，美聯儲的那些行動將與他長期想要的相反。他會增加一切的供應，一切。因此，租金將再次以比他沒有壓垮開工時更聰明的方式上漲。而這一切都將來到您附近的電影院。你還看不到它，因為每個人都在完成他們開始的一切，因為每個人都對我們和該國的所有其他貸方都有完成保證。

So as soon as our projects are finished, we will be laying off the construction workers. And though this government has a $1 trillion infrastructure build, they're not going to be able to get their act together fast enough to actually employ people to spend the money, given that the federal government is so screwed up. So let's go do an investigation of a meaningless relative of a prior President. That's really important. That's really helpful to growing the U.S. economy.

因此，一旦我們的項目完成，我們就會解僱建築工人。儘管這個政府有 1 萬億美元的基礎設施建設，但鑑於聯邦政府已經搞砸了，他們將無法足夠快地採取行動以實際僱用人們來花錢。因此，讓我們去調查前任總統的一個毫無意義的親戚。這真的很重要。這對美國經濟的增長確實有幫助。

And just one other thing to what I said earlier, lending, as Barry said, is 60% of our balance sheet. It's not 100% of our balance sheet. So unless you're going to assume losses on property and some of our other areas, we should also come in lower on the CECL side.

對於我之前所說的另一件事，正如巴里所說，貸款占我們資產負債表的 60%。這不是我們資產負債表的 100%。因此，除非你要承擔財產和我們其他一些領域的損失，否則我們也應該在 CECL 方面降低。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

And I may try to squeeze two in here. But when -- Barry, you talked about the opportunity related to capital freed up from the REO and the nonaccruals. You talked about an intoxicating stock price, and Jeff, laid out the disconnect between the implied losses and your expectations.

我可能會嘗試在這裡擠兩個。但是當 - 巴里，你談到了與從 REO 和非應計項目中釋放的資本相關的機會。你談到了令人陶醉的股價，而傑夫指出了隱含損失與你的預期之間的脫節。

As you think about capital allocation, how aggressively should you be allocating some of that additional capital, particularly given the leverage to your buyback?

當你考慮資本配置時，你應該如何積極地配置一些額外的資本，特別是考慮到你回購的槓桿作用？

I'd still like to build our reserves up slightly. I think if we achieved north of $1 billion of liquidity, we would aggressively go back in the market. So -- and that would be attainable with some of the REO sales and loan sales that we could achieve them.

我還是想稍微增加我們的儲備。我認為，如果我們獲得超過 10 億美元的流動資金，我們將積極重返市場。所以 - 這可以通過我們可以實現的一些 REO 銷售和貸款銷售來實現。

So I think that's kind of where we'd like to be. And we have a few things cooking that -- including the repayment of a large loan that will happen this week, we think. And that would include repurchase of the stock. It's not just making new loans. Our stock is now a better -- probably a better investment than most new homes we would make.

所以我認為這就是我們想要的地方。我們有一些事情要做——包括償還本週將發生的一筆大額貸款，我們認為。這將包括回購股票。這不僅僅是發放新貸款。我們的股票現在是更好的 - 可能比我們將建造的大多數新房更好的投資。

I mean the issue with construction loans is we don't get to put money out of that coupon upfront. They're drawn over time, whereas we're saving the dividend yield on our stock on day 1. So that would -- as we have in the past, every time the stock has gotten down, we've repurchased it.

我的意思是建築貸款的問題是我們無法預先從優惠券中取出錢。它們是隨著時間的推移而提取的，而我們在第一天就節省了我們股票的股息收益率。所以就像我們過去所做的那樣，每次股票下跌時，我們都會回購它。

So we would do the same this time, as soon as we clear what I think is -- look, you know that your credit is constrained today. So we have to be careful. But you know for the Multis, the agencies are wide open. That's 1/3 of our lending book, right? So that's not an issue.

所以這次我們會做同樣的事情，一旦我們清除了我的想法 - 看，你知道你今天的信用受到限制。所以我們必須要小心。但是你知道對於 Multis，這些機構是敞開的。那是我們貸款賬簿的 1/3，對嗎？所以這不是問題。

We expect that spread -- the first thing that will happen in the credit markets, and we'll see if -- once this banking crisis sort of clears and they take back 100 banks at the pace that credits they're going or might be more, spreads will come in. Some of the spreads in the security markets, including RMBS and CMBS markets are wide because the regional banks are dumping their security. So -- and people are fearful to tread in the water.

我們預計這種利差 - 信貸市場將發生的第一件事，我們將看看 - 一旦這場銀行業危機得到解決並且他們以他們正在或可能的信貸速度收回 100 家銀行更多，利差會進來。證券市場的一些利差，包括 RMBS 和 CMBS 市場很寬，因為區域性銀行正在拋售他們的證券。所以——人們害怕踏入水中。

You cannot have a functioning market with AAAs at 2.20, 2.40. They were coming in, but Silicon Valley Bank and everything else that's transpired post that sort of shook the can again. And it's like, what do they call, the snow globes. I mean the dust is in the air, it will settle, and spreads will come in.

AAA 在 2.20、2.40 時無法正常運作。他們進來了，但矽谷銀行和其他發生的一切都再次動搖了罐子。就像，他們怎麼稱呼雪球。我的意思是灰塵在空氣中，它會沉降，傳播會進來。

There's -- as you can see, there's so much money out there and it's looking for homes. And frankly, a 3.35, 10 year is a lot different than a 4.25 10-year. So to get duration today, you're going to want to buy securities with higher yields. And the short end is lovely, but it's only 3 to 6 months, and you're in 5%.

正如你所看到的，那裡有很多錢，它正在尋找家園。坦率地說，3.35 的 10 年期與 4.25 的 10 年期有很大不同。因此，為了獲得今天的持續時間，您將想要購買收益率更高的證券。短端很可愛，但只有 3 到 6 個月，而且你只有 5%。

The shape of the curve is going to help force capital into longer-term assets, which will look really good as the yield curve inevitably flattens. So I think this is a great opportunity for people and for us, but we do -- first and foremost, we are always been predictable and safe, and we want to protect, if we can at all cost our dividend. So we're not going to be cowboys, but it is accretive to buying the stock, obviously, at these levels to our dividend.

曲線的形狀將有助於迫使資本進入長期資產，這看起來非常好，因為收益率曲線不可避免地趨於平坦。因此，我認為這對人們和我們來說都是一個很好的機會，但我們確實做到了——首先，我們始終是可預測的和安全的，我們想要保護，如果我們可以不惜一切代價我們的紅利。所以我們不會成為牛仔，但顯然，在這些水平上購買股票會增加我們的股息。

And I would add that -- I'd add to that, that Rina mentioned the $620 million of cash. We have a loan closing tomorrow that's coming back to us. That will be $750 million of cash. The reality is we have $4.2 billion of unencumbered assets. We can go borrow against those unencumbered assets tomorrow.

我要補充一點——我要補充一點，Rina 提到了 6.2 億美元的現金。我們明天有一筆貸款要還給我們。這將是 7.5 億美元的現金。事實上，我們有 42 億美元的未支配資產。我們明天可以去借那些未抵押的資產。

At today's SOFR and paying up -- taking a loan and taking debt at 300 or 325 over, which is where the market has moved to, we're going to pay 8.5% to create more liquidity. So we have more liquidity available to us, but the cost of that is 8.5%. So it's very difficult to convince yourself against a cost of liquidity of 8.5% to sort of lever up the balance sheet or try to create a lot more that you end up ultimately sitting on and doing this borrowing also would increase our leverage. And we are very cognizant of our credit rating.

在今天的 SOFR 和支付——貸款和債務超過 300 或 325，這是市場已經移動的地方，我們將支付 8.5% 以創造更多的流動性。所以我們有更多的流動性可用，但成本是 8.5%。因此，很難說服自己反對 8.5% 的流動性成本來提高資產負債表或嘗試創造更多最終坐擁的資產，而進行這種借貸也會增加我們的槓桿作用。我們非常了解我們的信用評級。

And at 2.5 turns of leverage, and we believe we're going to have a great opportunity to issue unsecured later in the year against this higher cost financing we've taken. When we do that, we will have increased the amount of unsecured debt to secured debt that we have on our company. And we believe that along with holding the line on low leverage is tremendously important because it will lead to a ratings upgrade for our debt. We'll borrow cheaper than we win.

在 2.5 倍的槓桿率下，我們相信我們將有一個很好的機會在今年晚些時候針對我們已經採取的這種更高成本的融資發行無擔保。當我們這樣做時，我們將增加我們公司的無擔保債務與有擔保債務的數量。我們相信，除了保持低杠桿水平外，這非常重要，因為這將導致我們債務的評級上調。我們藉的比贏的便宜。

So being cognizant of the cost of that excess borrowing today to create a tremendous amount of liquidity that we could flash to you guys, and you would see billions of dollars, well, we'd be paying 8.5% for it and others are effectively too.

因此，認識到今天超額借貸的成本以創造大量的流動性，我們可以向你們展示，你們會看到數十億美元，好吧，我們將為此支付 8.5%，其他人也有效.

So we're choosing to run our liquidity where we are. And as Barry said, if we come up with excess liquidity that sort of doesn't cost 8.5%, I think we would love buying back our stock or other.

所以我們選擇在我們所在的地方運行我們的流動性。正如巴里所說，如果我們提出不會花費 8.5% 的過剩流動性，我想我們會喜歡回購我們的股票或其他股票。

Our next question is from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Barry, if the Fed did come in and cut rates like the futures market is projecting, do you think that would change sort of the psychology and the CRE property markets and kind of put a floor on values you talked about a lot of money on the sidelines?

巴里，如果美聯儲真的像期貨市場預測的那樣降息，你認為這會改變某種心理和 CRE 房地產市場，並為你談到的很多錢的價值設置底線嗎副業？

Again, I think as spreads come in first and then rates go down. Those are -- that's a double whammy. Spreads are twice as wide as it used to be because there's fear in the markets.

同樣，我認為隨著利差首先出現，然後利率下降。這些是 - 這是雙重打擊。價差是過去的兩倍，因為市場存在恐懼。

I think -- look, I think the office asset class is going to evolve a little like the malls, right? The mall market, we all thought, and we read, and everyone was completely panicked that there will never be another physical store. We thought the world was ending in retail like done, and yet look at Simon's results yesterday. I mean the good malls are full, right? We are near Aventura. They just added like a several hundred-thousand-foot expansion and it's completely full.

我認為 - 看，我認為辦公室資產類別會像購物中心一樣發展，對吧？商場市場，我們都想過，我們讀過，每個人都非常恐慌，因為再也不會有實體店了。我們認為世界正在以零售業告終，但看看西蒙昨天的業績。我的意思是好的商場都滿了，對吧？我們在 Aventura 附近。他們只是增加了幾十萬英尺的擴展空間，而且已經完全填滿了。

So the office markets will behave exactly like the retail markets. They will be good buildings and dead zombies all around. And you'll have a great opportunity to lend against the good buildings. And that's what we get paid to do, be smart investors and take the right risks.

因此寫字樓市場的行為將與零售市場完全一樣。它們將是周圍的好建築和死殭屍。你將有很好的機會以優質建築為抵押進行貸款。這就是我們得到報酬要做的，成為聰明的投資者並承擔正確的風險。

I think -- but right now, it's fun to hear every day. Charlie Munger, say, the asset class is getting pummeled. It's not really about the asset -- single family say, look at even the prices of homes, they've held up really well, far better than most people thought. And you see multifamily rents have reaccelerated.

我想——但現在，每天都能聽到它很有趣。查理芒格說，資產類別正在遭受重創。這與資產無關——單身家庭說，甚至看看房屋的價格，它們的表現非常好，比大多數人想像的要好得多。你會看到多戶住宅的租金再次加速上漲。

They were -- there was a weird thing that happened at the end of last year where tourists for rentals dropped, but they then have gone bananas in the first quarter of the year. We don't want and don't expect to see 20% increase in multifamily rents.

他們是——去年年底發生了一件奇怪的事情，租房的遊客減少了，但他們在今年第一季度就瘋了。我們不希望也不期望看到多戶住宅的租金上漲 20%。

That is that's some weird condition that's never happened before. We saw it in '21. Everyone saw it in real estate, except the Fed, which waited 6 months to realize their inflation number was going to go way up, and that's one of the reasons they were so late.

那是一些以前從未發生過的奇怪情況。我們在 21 年看到了它。每個人都在房地產領域看到了這一點，除了美聯儲，美聯儲等了 6 個月才意識到他們的通脹數據將大幅上升，這也是他們來得太晚的原因之一。

Now they're doing the exact opposite. They still have it rising every month. It's the biggest component of CPI, and it's falling dramatically from 20 to 4. That's national rental growth -- multifamily rental growth.

現在他們正在做完全相反的事情。他們仍然每個月都在上漲。它是 CPI 的最大組成部分，並且從 20 急劇下降到 4。這就是全國租金增長——多戶住宅租金增長。

So yes, I think it will take a little time to people -- this regional banking prices, you cannot have these banks having value every day. You're -- it's a little tornadoes and hurricanes blowing over the system and they'll be real estate; people still want to live somewhere. They'll go shop some place. We're just going to have to adjust balance sheet to this.

所以，是的，我認為人們需要一點時間——這個地區銀行的價格，你不能讓這些銀行每天都有價值。你是 - 有點龍捲風和颶風席捲整個系統，它們將成為房地產；人們仍然想住在某個地方。他們會去某個地方購物。我們只需要為此調整資產負債表。

And we were formed at the RTC. I started this firm in 1991, buying assets from the RTC. We made a lot of money, and we made a lot of good returns. I think this trip will be more like '07, '08, where the government participated in the sale of the assets, and they finance the purchasers.

我們是在 RTC 成立的。我於 1991 年創辦了這家公司，從 RTC 購買資產。我們賺了很多錢，也獲得了很多豐厚的回報。我認為這次旅行更像是 07 年、08 年，政府參與了資產的出售，他們為購買者提供資金。

I mean the difference -- the big difference here is '07, '08, they lowered rates to zero when the economy blew up. And so banks were fine because all they had to do is keep their doors open and they rebuilt their capital basis, and they didn't have to mark anything to market.

我的意思是區別——最大的區別是 07 年、08 年，當經濟崩潰時，他們將利率降至零。所以銀行沒有問題，因為他們所要做的就是敞開大門，重建資本基礎，而且他們不需要對任何東西進行標記。

They're doing the opposite, right. They have increasing interest rates into a falling asset class and economy. And so the banks -- I look at our -- I looked at a bank, we have a small -- it's not the REIT, but we have an investment -- I have a personal investment in. And they have billions of deposits earning zero and billions of deposits that are insurers of the balance. I mean that is -- those can leave with 10 to 1 leverage; banks can't make up. They can't liquefy that fast. There's no way. So they wind up being custodial of the state.

他們在做相反的事情，對吧。他們在不斷下降的資產類別和經濟中提高利率。所以銀行——我看了我們的——我看了一家銀行，我們有一個小的——不是房地產投資信託基金，但我們有一項投資——我有個人投資。他們有數十億的存款收入零和數十億存款是餘額的保險人。我的意思是——那些人可以以 10 比 1 的槓桿率離開；銀行無法彌補。他們不能那麼快液化。不可能。所以他們最終成為國家的監護人。

And whether I let JPMorgan buy every bank or Wells, they won't allow us do anything. I mean the government is completely screwed up, completely screwed up. And I don't know how to handicap that because I don't know what they're looking at, but they aren't looking at what everyone in the real estate industry is telling them to look at.

而且無論我讓摩根大通收購每家銀行還是富國銀行，他們都不允許我們做任何事情。我的意思是政府完全搞砸了，完全搞砸了。而且我不知道如何阻止它，因為我不知道他們在看什麼，但他們並沒有在看房地產行業的每個人都告訴他們要看的東西。

And office asset class is $3 trillion. $3 trillion loss, I mean that's noticeable. And the losses will go somewhere. They'll go into CMBS securities into regional banks and the major banks and bonds. And fortunately, LNR will have a good time. But again, it's not going to be uniform. It's going to be like retail. They're really good retail. Look at it happen to strips. I mean, they're full. And the tenants are doing well, except for Bed, Bath and Beyond, but most of the tenants are doing well.

辦公室資產類別為 3 萬億美元。 3 萬億美元的損失，我的意思是這是顯而易見的。損失會轉移到某個地方。他們將進入 CMBS 證券進入區域銀行和主要銀行和債券。幸運的是，LNR 會玩得很開心。但同樣，它不會是統一的。它將像零售一樣。他們真的很好零售。看看它發生在條帶上。我的意思是，它們已經滿了。而且除了Bed, Bath and Beyond，租戶都過得不錯，但大部分租戶都過得不錯。

So new uses, we get Padel Port and old anchor space. I mean it's -- people are repurposing stuff. And they do make good housing sites. So there's value here, and smart investors are going to make a lot of money in the cycle again. But right now, we have to deal with the conditions as they are and we will, and we have the balance sheet and liquidity to do it.

所以新用途，我們得到 Padel Port 和舊錨空間。我的意思是——人們正在重新利用東西。他們確實提供了很好的住房用地。所以這裡是有價值的，聰明的投資者又要在周期中賺大錢了。但現在，我們必須按原樣處理這些情況，我們會這樣做，而且我們有資產負債表和流動性來做到這一點。

Our next question is from Doug Harter with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Doug Harter。

As you look forward, is there any need or desire to kind of reallocate any of your capital in the coming year, so towards the lending opportunity that you say is building?

正如您所期待的那樣，是否需要或希望在來年重新分配您的任何資本，以便轉向您所說的正在建立的貸款機會？

In the next year, will we look at lending opportunities towards what? I'm so sorry.

明年，我們會考慮向哪些方面提供貸款機會？我很抱歉。

All right, sorry, in the commercial real estate space, as you're talking about this potentially being a good lending opportunity, is there opportunity to reallocate capital away from say residential portfolio or the property portfolio to be able to take advantage of the lending opportunity kind of on the other side of this downturn?

好吧，抱歉，在商業房地產領域，當你談論這可能是一個很好的貸款機會時，是否有機會將資本從住宅投資組合或房地產投資組合中重新分配，以便能夠利用貸款在這種低迷的另一邊有機會嗎？

Yes. Listen, the easy one to say is we're not adding property today sort of today's financing costs, our cash-on-cash returns were nowhere near our dividend. So that's not getting bigger. Could it get smaller? Obviously.

是的。聽著，最簡單的說法是，我們今天沒有增加房產，也就是今天的融資成本，我們的現金回報遠不及我們的股息。所以這不會變大。還能變小嗎？明顯地。

As you look across the other ones, I think we really like our Energy Infrastructure segment right now. We earned almost 20%. If we ultimately earn what we believe we'll earn on the investments, we made in the last quarter. That's been as big of an investment cylinder for us recently as CRE lending.

當你看其他人時，我認為我們現在真的很喜歡我們的能源基礎設施部門。我們賺了將近 20%。如果我們最終賺到我們認為我們會從投資中賺到的錢，那麼我們在上個季度就賺到了。最近，這對我們來說就像 CRE 貸款一樣大。

We think CRE lending is fantastic today. We think there are opportunities to get really good spread. Obviously, you're financing it at an expensive rate. The more we can do there, as I mentioned before, the more repo we can take or if we don't choose the CLO financing, which is unlikely today or an A-note financing, which is more difficult today.

我們認為今天的 CRE 貸款非常棒。我們認為有機會獲得非常好的傳播。顯然，您正在以昂貴的價格為其融資。正如我之前提到的，我們可以在那裡做的越多，我們可以進行的回購就越多，或者如果我們不選擇 CLO 融資，這在今天不太可能，或者 A-note 融資，這在今天更加困難。

If you use repo and you take more expensive repo, it's a great opportunity later to pay that off with unsecured, as I talked about, that ability to potentially get a ratings upgrade on our debt. So we would love to do more. We think it's a great environment to do more. But our cost of debt is really expensive.

如果你使用回購協議並且你採用更昂貴的回購協議，這是一個很好的機會，可以在以後用無擔保的方式償還，正如我所說的那樣，這種能力有可能使我們的債務評級升級。所以我們願意做更多。我們認為這是一個做更多事情的好環境。但是我們的債務成本真的很昂貴。

The CMBS originations are really interesting heading into the back half of this year. Our team has done an amazing job over the last couple of years of making money every quarter when every bank lost money in most of those quarters.

進入今年下半年，CMBS 的起源真的很有趣。在過去的幾年裡，我們的團隊在每個季度都盈利的情況下做得非常出色，而每家銀行在這些季度的大部分時間都在虧損。

So we hedge the credit risk there. We hedge the interest rate risk there. And we think that there will be a significant pickup later this year. So we're -- we have a great team on the field that we're excited to run into the second half of this year and start picking up there. So there's a lot of things to choose from.

所以我們對沖那裡的信用風險。我們在那裡對沖利率風險。我們認為今年晚些時候會有顯著回升。所以我們——我們在球場上擁有一支偉大的團隊，我們很高興能在今年下半年開始並在那裡開始復蘇。所以有很多東西可供選擇。

Property is the one place we won't be investing. Resi is probably unlikely today, but our book is certainly moving in our favor a bit. But the other ones, we have a great business model. We get to wake up every day and choose where to invest of. It's awesome. I would hate being at a job where I had to make commercial real estate loans, every day I woke up regardless of whether I wanted to make a commercial real estate loan.

房地產是我們不會投資的地方。 Resi 今天可能不太可能，但我們的書肯定對我們有利。但其他的，我們有一個很好的商業模式。我們每天醒來，然後選擇投資的地方。這很棒。我討厭從事必須提供商業房地產貸款的工作，每天醒來時都不管我是否想提供商業房地產貸款。

And going back to credit, I think we made a lot of great credit decisions by not investing in loans at times when others did. And so to the question on CECL reserves, we have 50 reasons why I think ours should be better. But one of them is we're not forced to make a loan on a day we don't make a loan. There were a lot of loans that probably looking back to people in 2016 or so that probably don't look as good. The lending markets were really tight. Well, guess what? We bought a massive equity portfolio in 2016, and we're up $1.5 billion on it.

回到信貸，我認為我們通過在其他人投資貸款時不投資而做出了很多偉大的信貸決定。因此，關於 CECL 儲備的問題，我們有 50 個理由說明我們的儲備應該更好。但其中之一是我們不會在不貸款的那一天被迫貸款。有很多貸款可能會在 2016 年左右回顧人們，看起來可能不太好。貸款市場真的很緊張。好吧，你猜怎麼著？我們在 2016 年購買了大量股票投資組合，我們從中賺了 15 億美元。

So we're going to make decisions every day into what's the best investment to make. Other people can only make a loan today. Let's make another loan, and you're going to ultimately get into more trouble when you can only make a loan today. So the diversification, we think, is a great upside for us. And we like just about everything that we're looking at today in terms of opportunities.

因此，我們每天都將做出最佳投資決策。其他人今天只能貸款。讓我們再貸一筆錢，當你今天只能貸一筆錢時，你最終會遇到更多麻煩。因此，我們認為多元化對我們來說是一個很大的好處。我們喜歡我們今天在機會方面看到的一切。

Our next question is from Sarah Barcomb with BTIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Sarah Barcomb。

So in the prepared remarks, you mentioned the high concentration to the Southeast and Southwest within the multifamily bucket, and I'm specifically curious about the deals that were underwritten in the back half of 2021 and front half of 2022, when we saw rapid rent growth and higher LTV lending.

因此，在準備好的發言中，你提到了多戶住宅中東南部和西南部的高度集中，我特別好奇在 2021 年下半年和 2022 年上半年承銷的交易，當時我們看到快速租金增長和更高的 LTV 貸款。

And while we're seeing high rent growth in those markets, are you starting to see any signs of NOI at the property level coming in below expectations on deals that were penciled with negative leverage back then when rates were near zero? And are you seeing any risk in the sponsor's ability to service their debt in those situations? Are you seeing any issues on the ground here pop up yet?

雖然我們看到這些市場的租金高漲，但您是否開始看到房地產層面的任何 NOI 低於預期的跡象，這些交易在當時利率接近於零時帶有負槓桿作用？在這種情況下，您是否認為發起人償還債務的能力存在任何風險？您是否看到這裡突然出現任何問題？

So I'm sorry, I thought Barry was going to take it. I guess I'll start.

所以我很抱歉，我以為巴里會接受它。我想我會開始。

From a rent's perspective, you've obviously seen rent push from late '21 into today. So income is up. Expenses are up a little, but income is up a lot more. So even the loans that we wrote, I think you're implying that we all, as an industry, wrote loans again lower cap rate than today. We've gone over this, and our portfolio in total is sort of 6.2 in-place debt yield going to 7.1. As Barry said, that feels pretty cheap to us.

從租金的角度來看，您顯然已經看到租金從 21 世紀末到今天一直在上漲。所以收入上來了。支出增加了一點，但收入增加了很多。因此，即使是我們寫的貸款，我認為你暗示我們作為一個行業，再次寫下低於今天的上限利率的貸款。我們已經解決了這個問題，我們的投資組合總的來說是 6.2 到 7.1 的就地債務收益率。正如巴里所說，這對我們來說感覺很便宜。

I would say the stuff we did at the very bottom, they're -- there may be some high 5 debt yields of the things that we did in late '21. So again, you've had rents pushed, and we expect rents to continue to push, but at a more moderated pace today. And as long as they outpace expense growth, I think there's a lot of (inaudible).

我會說我們在最底層所做的事情，它們是——我們在 21 世紀末所做的事情可能有一些高 5 倍的債務收益率。因此，再次推高了租金，我們預計租金將繼續上漲，但今天的步伐會更加緩和。只要他們超過費用增長，我認為有很多（聽不清）。

Honestly, if we get these assets back where we win a fraction of their construction costs, we would be happy to save our careers. We'll just add them to our REO book alone, leverage them when spreads come down with Fannie and Freddie and we'll loan, and they're brand-new assets, and we -- they're good assets in good markets.

老實說，如果我們將這些資產拿回我們贏得一小部分建設成本的地方，我們會很樂意挽救我們的職業生涯。我們只會將它們單獨添加到我們的 REO 賬簿中，當 Fannie 和 Freddie 的利差下降時利用它們，我們將貸款，它們是全新的資產，我們 - 它們是良好市場中的良好資產。

So that would be a really positive outcome for us. We are happy. We are the only mortgage REIT that had always had fee assets. We always went into the fee ownership business. We just couldn't get the yields on cost. We got for the initial portfolio. But even there, we never anticipated the rent growth we saw in the affordable housing portfolio.

所以這對我們來說將是一個非常積極的結果。我們很開心。我們是唯一一直擁有收費資產的抵押房地產投資信託基金。我們總是進入費用所有權業務。我們只是無法獲得成本收益。我們得到了初始投資組合。但即使在那裡，我們也從未預料到我們在經濟適用房組合中看到的租金增長。

That's frankly, I think the deal is like 100 IRR. We've refinanced our equity of the deal and still have $1.5 billion of gains, some of which we obviously took with the sale of the minority interest. So we have issues that are different issues like these gains are taxable. So we have to be very careful how to harvest them. And so we want to make sure that we not pay as little taxes as we can on the gains in our portfolio.

坦率地說，我認為這筆交易就像 100 IRR。我們已經為這筆交易的股權進行再融資，仍有 15 億美元的收益，其中一些收益顯然是通過出售少數股權獲得的。所以我們有不同的問題，比如這些收益是應稅的。所以我們必須非常小心如何收穫它們。因此，我們希望確保我們不會為投資組合的收益繳納盡可能少的稅。

They're distributable not necessarily taxable our reserve.

它們是可分配的，不一定要對我們的儲備徵稅。

It is distributable not taxable.

它是可分配的而不是徵稅的。

And we have to...

我們必須...

That doesn't help us that much on liquidity. That's what we're saying. Yes.

這對我們的流動性沒有太大幫助。這就是我們所說的。是的。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Barry Sternlicht for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權轉回給 Barry Sternlicht，聽取任何結束評論。

Thank you all. I mean these are trying times so we're available to talk to you as long as you want, and transparency has been our hallmark. I think our new disclosure page is very helpful to all of you, when you look at our company different from others in the sector, we don't wish anyone ill. But we are a slightly different company than most.

謝謝你們。我的意思是現在是艱難時期，所以只要您願意，我們都可以與您交談，透明度一直是我們的標誌。我認為我們新的披露頁面對你們所有人都非常有幫助，當你們看到我們公司與該行業的其他公司不同時，我們不希望任何人生病。但我們是一家與大多數公司略有不同的公司。

And we built this business on a on purpose. And as Jeff said, having the ability to do nothing or investing in all these other alternative businesses is an asset and benefit to the firm. So with our 300-plus people that are dedicated to activities here, well you could hope you navigate this water well, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you.

我們是有意建立這項業務的。正如傑夫所說，能夠無所事事或投資於所有這些其他替代業務是公司的資產和利益。因此，我們有 300 多名致力於這里活動的員工，希望您能很好地駕馭這片水域，我們期待下個季度與您交談。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。