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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised this call is being recorded today, October 21, 2025, and your participants implies consent to our recording this ca/ll. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect.
大家好,歡迎參加鋼鐵動力公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,本次通話將於 2025 年 10 月 21 日進行錄音,您的參與者表示同意我們錄製本次通話。如果您不同意這些條款,請中斷連線。
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.
此時,我謹將會議交給投資人關係總監大衛‧利普希茨。先生,請繼續。
David Lipschitz - Investor Relations Director
David Lipschitz - Investor Relations Director
Thank you, Elie. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics' third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics; Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer; and Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually.
謝謝你,埃利。早安,歡迎參加鋼鐵動力公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。再次提醒,今天的電話會議正在錄音,稍後將在我們的網站上提供回放。主持今天電話會議的是 Steel Dynamics 董事長兼執行長 Mark Millett;執行副總裁兼財務長 Theresa Wagler;以及總裁兼營運長 Barry Schneider。我們高階領導團隊的其他成員將逐一參加此電話會議。
Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward-looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently.
今天的一些聲明僅代表截至目前的情況,可能具有前瞻性和預測性,通常以“相信”、“預期”、“預計”或類似含義的詞語開頭。如果實際結果與預期不同,它們將受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的保護。
Such statements involve risks and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of estimates and assumptions in connection with anticipated project returns and our steel, metals recycling and fabrication businesses as well as to general business and economic conditions.
此類聲明涉及與整合或啟動新資產、鋁業、與預期項目回報相關的估計和假設的使用以及我們的鋼鐵、金屬回收和加工業務以及一般商業和經濟狀況相關的風險和不確定性。
Examples of these are described in the related press release as well as in our annually filed SEC Form 10-K under the headings forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors found on the Internet, at www.sec.gov and, if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10-Q. You will also find any referenced non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly compared GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics reports third-quarter 2025 results.
相關新聞稿以及我們每年向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格中的「前瞻性聲明」和「風險因素」標題下對這些範例進行了描述,這些表格可在互聯網上的 www.sec.gov 找到,如果適用,也可在任何後續的 10-Q 表格中找到。您也可以在昨天發布的題為「鋼鐵動力公司公佈2025年第三季業績」的新聞稿中找到所有引用的非GAAP財務指標與最直接比較的GAAP指標的調節表。
And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.
現在我很高興把電話交給馬克。
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Super. Thank you, David. Well, good morning, everybody. Thank you for being with us on our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Some may suggest hyperbole, but I often said that we have the best teams on the planet and they proved it once again in the third quarter.
極好的。謝謝你,大衛。大家早安。感謝您參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。有些人可能會覺得我言過其實,但我常說我們擁有地球上最好的球隊,他們在第三節再次證明了這一點。
Operationally, they executed incredibly well while keeping each other safe, and achieve pivotal successes in furthering our significant growth projects. Financially, even with some interim market headwinds in flat roll, we achieve a number of key operational milestones. We had a record steel shipments of 3.6 million tons. Revenues were $4.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $664 million, and we had a healthy cash flow from operations of $723 million. At Sinton, we believe consistent operational execution has been achieved.
在營運方面,他們表現出色,同時確保了彼此的安全,並在推動我們重大成長項目方面取得了關鍵性的成功。財務方面,即使面臨一些暫時的市場不利因素,我們在平價滾動方面也實現了多個關鍵的營運里程碑。我們的鋼鐵出貨量創下歷史新高,達到360萬噸。營收為 48 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 6.64 億美元,經營活動產生的現金流量健康達 7.23 億美元。在辛頓,我們認為已經實現了持續穩定的營運執行。
It was a record quarter for shipments, downstream coating and prepaint product quality has matured, and the value-add product portfolio is expanding nicely. Industry participants are recognizing that this is the middle of the future. Our Linen team continues to make strong progress in commissioning and ramping operations, receiving a number of quality certifications in September and October.
本季出貨量創歷史新高,下游塗料和預塗產品品質日趨成熟,加值產品組合也穩定擴展。業內人士認識到,現在正處於未來之中。我們的亞麻製品團隊在調試和產能提升方面繼續取得顯著進展,並在 9 月和 10 月獲得了多項品質認證。
In particular, our can sheet has been performing extremely well with equivalent results to competitive material. Much more to do, but incredibly exciting performance today. In our biocarbon team shipped their first product in September. We're extremely excited to have this new tool in our decarbonization journey that will further reduce our carbon footprint from an already industry-leading low level.
尤其值得一提的是,我們的罐體板材表現非常出色,其性能與競爭材料不相上下。還有很多工作要做,但今天的演出非常精彩。我們的生物碳團隊於9月交付了他們的第一批產品。我們非常高興能在脫碳進程中擁有這項新工具,它將進一步降低我們本已處於業界領先水準的碳足跡。
I continue to be proud of the entire Steel Dynamics team because they are just the foundation of our company, and they continue to amaze me. And so we're laser-focused on providing the very best for their health and safety. It is an everyday conversation at every level. Our world-class safety culture continues to mature and our team's dedication to our tape controller safety program is extraordinary and continues to produce strong results.
我一直為整個鋼鐵動力團隊感到自豪,因為他們是我們公司的基石,他們總是讓我感到驚訝。因此,我們全心全意致力於為他們的健康和安全提供最好的保障。這是各階層每天都會談論的話題。我們世界一流的安全文化不斷成熟,我們的團隊對磁帶控制器安全計畫的奉獻精神非同凡響,並持續取得顯著成效。
Their commitment is inspiring. They consider themselves family and challenge the status quo each day to keep you other safe. But that said, there will always be more to do as we drive toward a zero incident environment as there is nothing more important for us.
他們的奉獻精神令人敬佩。他們視彼此為家人,每天挑戰現狀,以確保彼此的安全。但即便如此,在我們朝著零事故環境邁進的過程中,總是會有更多的事情要做,因為對我們來說沒有什麼比這更重要的了。
So with that, I'll hand it to Theresa and to Barry to give some color to the quarter.
那麼,接下來我就把這個交給特蕾莎和巴里,讓他們為這部分增添一些色彩。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Excellent. Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and thanks to the team for an exceptional performance. Our third quarter 2025 earnings per diluted share were $2.74 with adjusted EBITDA of $664 million.
出色的。謝謝你,馬克。各位早安。感謝各位的參與,也感謝團隊的優異表現。我們 2025 年第三季稀釋後每股收益為 2.74 美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 6.64 億美元。
Both third quarter 2025 revenue of $4.8 billion and operating income of $508 million were higher than the second quarter results driven by record steel shipments and metal spread expansion as scrap raw material costs declined more than steel prices.
2025 年第三季營收為 48 億美元,營業收入為 5.08 億美元,均高於第二季業績,這主要得益於創紀錄的鋼鐵出貨量和金屬價差擴大,因為廢鋼原料成本的下降幅度超過了鋼鐵價格的下降幅度。
As we discuss our business this morning, we continue to focus and execute on our transformational growth initiatives. Our steel operations generated operating income of $498 million in the third quarter, 30% higher sequentially based on record shipments, supported by an almost 20% improvement in shipments from Sinton and metal spread expansion.
今天上午我們討論業務時,將繼續專注並執行我們的轉型成長計劃。第三季度,我們的鋼鐵業務實現了 4.98 億美元的營業收入,環比增長 30%,這主要得益於創紀錄的出貨量,其中 Sinton 的出貨量增長了近 20%,以及金屬價差的擴大。
Average scrap costs declined $27 per ton, while average realized pricing only declined $15 per ton. For modeling purposes, this quarter's hot band shipments were 1,097 000 tons. Cold-rolled shipments were 120,000 tons; and finally, coated shipments were 1,486,000 tons. Additionally, we also highlight that our three flat-rolled steel production divisions have planned maintenance outages in the fourth quarter, which could reduce volume by as much as 85,000 tons.
平均廢料成本每噸下降了 27 美元,而平均實際售價每噸僅下降了 15 美元。為便於建模,本季熱帶材出貨量為 1,097 000 噸。冷軋鋼出貨量為 12 萬噸;最後,塗層鋼出貨量為 148.6 萬噸。此外,我們還要強調,我們的三個扁鋼生產部門在第四季度計劃進行維護停產,這可能會減少多達 85,000 噸的產量。
For the third quarter, operating income from our mills recycling operations was $32 million, significantly above our sequential second quarter results driven by near-record shipments supported by domestic steel demand and study nonferrous volume coupled with metal spread expansion. We're the largest North American metals recycling processing ferrous scrap and non-ferrous aluminum, copper and other metals, and we're growing to support our increased steel capacity and aluminum flat-rolled operations through new and expanded supplier relationships and through the use of innovative separation technologies. Our metals recycling platform is a significant competitive advantage for all of our platforms.
第三季度,我們鋼廠回收業務的營業收入為 3,200 萬美元,遠高於第二季度的環比業績,這主要得益於國內鋼鐵需求和有色金屬產量研究以及金屬價差擴大帶來的接近歷史最高水平的出貨量。我們是北美最大的金屬回收加工企業,加工廢鐵和有色金屬,包括鋁、銅和其他金屬。我們正在不斷發展壯大,透過建立和擴大供應商關係以及採用創新的分離技術來支持我們不斷增長的鋼鐵產能和鋁扁軋業務。我們的金屬回收平台是我們所有平台的一項重大競爭優勢。
Our steel fabrication team achieved operating income of $107 million in the third quarter, 15% higher than second quarter sequential results due to increased volume, coupled with relatively flat metal spread. Our joists and deck backlog extends through the first quarter of 2026 with solid pricing. And federal programs, manufacturing growth and onshoring are expected to support domestic fixed asset investment and therefore, related steel joist index consumption in the coming years.
由於銷售量增加,加上金屬價差相對平穩,我們的鋼鐵製造團隊第三季營業收入達到 1.07 億美元,比第二季季增 15%。我們的托樑和甲板訂單積壓一直持續到 2026 年第一季度,價格穩定。預計聯邦項目、製造業成長和製造業回流將在未來幾年支持國內固定資產投資,從而帶動相關鋼樑指數的消費。
Congratulations to the aluminum teams in Columbus and San Luis Potosi, hitting so many early quality milestones, the energy and momentum are contagious. Related startup operating losses of $57 million were somewhat higher in the third quarter than previously expected as the team's continued construction and commissioning of various areas while also accelerating testing for beverage can and automotive products.
恭喜哥倫布和聖路易斯波托西的鋁材團隊,他們取得了許多早期品質里程碑,這種活力和勢頭極具感染力。第三季相關的新創公司營運虧損為 5,700 萬美元,比之前預期的要高一些,原因是該團隊繼續建立和調試各個領域,同時加快了飲料罐和汽車產品的測試。
We currently estimate comparative losses to be in the range of $40 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. Based on current expectations, we continue to believe our aluminum operations will achieve monthly EBITDA breakeven or better in the fourth quarter of this year. During the third quarter of 2025, as Mark mentioned, we generated strong cash flow from operations of $723 million, of that, operational working capital was a funding source of $126 million.
我們目前預計 2025 年第四季的相對虧損額將在 4,000 萬美元左右。根據目前的預期,我們仍然相信我們的鋁業務將在今年第四季度實現月度 EBITDA 收支平衡或更高。正如馬克所提到的,在 2025 年第三季度,我們從經營活動中產生了強勁的現金流,達到 7.23 億美元,其中,營運營運資金是 1.26 億美元的資金來源。
We ended September with liquidity of over $2.2 billion. For the fourth quarter of 2025, we believe capital investments will be in the range of $200 million and early estimates for capital expenditures for the full year 2026 are in the range of $500 million to $600 million.
截至9月底,我們的流動資金超過22億美元。我們認為,2025 年第四季的資本投資額將在 2 億美元左右,而 2026 年全年的資本支出初步估計將在 5 億至 6 億美元之間。
During 2025, we've repurchased $661 million of our common stock or 3.4% of our outstanding shares. At September 30, $1 billion remained available for share repurchases. Since 2017, we've increased our cash dividend per share by 223% and we've repurchased $7.4 billion of our common stock. That's over 40% of our outstanding shares, all while maintaining investment-grade ratings and growing.
2025年,我們回購了價值6.61億美元的普通股,占我們已發行股份的3.4%。截至9月30日,仍有10億美元可用於股票回購。自 2017 年以來,我們已將每股現金股利提高了 223%,並回購了價值 74 億美元的普通股。這占我們流通股的 40% 以上,同時我們也保持著投資等級評級並實現成長。
These actions reflect the strength of our capital foundation and consistently strong cash flow generation capability. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high-return strategic growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that's complemented with a variable share repurchase program while we remain dedicated to preserving our investment-grade credit designation.
這些舉措體現了我們雄厚的資本基礎和持續強勁的現金流生成能力。我們的資本配置策略優先考慮高回報的策略成長,股東分配包括基本正股息,並輔以可變股票回購計劃,同時我們仍致力於維持投資等級信用評等。
Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally increased over the last five years to $3 billion, excluding our large strategic Sinton and aluminum investments. We've truly placed ourselves in a position of strength. To have a sustainable capital foundation that provides the opportunity for meaningful strategic growth and strong shareholder returns.
過去五年,我們的自由現金流狀況已從根本上成長至 30 億美元,這還不包括我們對 Sinton 和鋁業的大型策略投資。我們已經真正將自己置於一個強大的地位。擁有可持續的資本基礎,為有意義的策略成長和強勁的股東回報提供機會。
We recently announced that each of our company's steel mills achieved global steel Climate Council product certifications. For our customers, this means greater transparency and confidence when sourcing lower and body carbon steel products from us.
我們最近宣布,我們公司旗下的每個鋼鐵廠都獲得了全球鋼鐵氣候委員會的產品認證。對於我們的客戶而言,這意味著在向我們採購下部和主體碳鋼產品時,可以獲得更高的透明度和信心。
And I'm incredibly proud and excited to announce that our biocarbon solution team safely produced and shipped their first biocarbon material in September and it was successfully used as a carbon replacement at our Columbus Flat Rolled Steel division, providing an even lower carbon supply chain for our steel customers in the future.
我非常自豪和興奮地宣布,我們的生物碳解決方案團隊已於 9 月安全生產並交付了他們的第一種生物碳材料,該材料已成功用作我們哥倫布扁鋼部門的碳替代品,這將為我們的鋼鐵客戶在未來提供更低碳的供應鏈。
The team plans to continue to refine operations and increase production into the first quarter of next year. This achievement marks a pivotal SEP in our decarbonization journey and verse demonstrates our ability to translate innovative concepts into tangible results, a personal thank you to all 73 biocarbon team members. Decarbonization is a meaningful part of our long-term value creation strategy, and we're dedicated to our people, our communities, and our environment.
團隊計劃在明年第一季繼續改進營運並提高產量。這項成就標誌著我們在脫碳進程中取得了關鍵性的進展,也展現了我們將創新理念轉化為實際成果的能力,在此向所有 73 位生物碳團隊成員表示衷心的感謝。脫碳是我們長期價值創造策略的重要組成部分,我們致力於造福我們的員工、社區和環境。
We are committed to operating our business with the highest integrity. We uniquely have an actual path forward that's intentional and manageable, and we believe considerably less expensive than may lay ahead for many of our peers. We're squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable, optimized long-term value creation. Thank you. Barry?
我們致力於以最高的誠信標準經營業務。我們獨有一條切實可行的前進道路,這條道路既有計劃又可控,而且我們相信,這條道路的成本要比許多同行未來可能面臨的道路要低得多。我們已做好充分準備,持續實現可持續的、優化的長期價值創造。謝謝。巴里?
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Theresa. Our steel fabrication operations improved their sequential results as volumes increased 12% sequentially, more than offsetting slight metal spread compression. Order activity remained steady in the quarter, and our backlog now extends through the first quarter of 2026.
謝謝你,特蕾莎。我們的鋼鐵製造業務的業績環比增長了 12%,產量環比增長 12%,超過了金屬分銷渠道的輕微壓縮。本季訂單活動保持穩定,我們的積壓訂單已排至 2026 年第一季。
Pricing for steel joist and deck bookings remained relatively stable throughout the quarter. We continue to be optimistic for our Steel joy and deck platform based on the continued onshoring of manufacturing, continued announcements of significant privately funded manufacturing projects and public funding for infrastructure and other fixed asset investment programs.
本季鋼樑和甲板預訂的價格保持相對穩定。基於製造業持續回流國內、不斷宣布重大私人融資製造項目以及公共資金用於基礎設施和其他固定資產投資計劃,我們對鋼鐵平台和甲板平台的前景仍然保持樂觀。
The long-term uplift of this backdrop could be considerable for all of our platforms. Our steel fabrication platform provides meaningful volume support for our steel operations, critical and softer demand environments allowing for higher through-cycle steel utilization compared to our peers. It also helps mitigate the impact of lower steel prices.
從長遠來看,這種背景可能會對我們所有平台產生相當大的正面影響。我們的鋼鐵製造平台為我們的鋼鐵業務提供了重要的產量支持,在關鍵和需求疲軟的環境下,與同行相比,可以實現更高的全週期鋼鐵利用率。這也有助於減輕鋼材價格下跌的影響。
Earnings for our metals recycling operations were much higher in the third quarter as metal spreads improved and shipments were at near record levels. We believe fares scrap prices have stabilized and are likely to remain relatively steady throughout the rest of the year, aside from typical seasonal fluctuations. Additionally, the team continues to expand its access to recycled aluminum for our aluminum flat-rolled operations.
由於金屬價差改善且出貨量接近歷史最高水平,我們金屬回收業務的收益在第三季大幅提高。我們認為票價廢料價格已經穩定,除了典型的季節性波動外,今年剩餘時間可能會保持相對穩定。此外,該團隊繼續擴大其在鋁扁軋業務中獲取再生鋁的管道。
North American geographic footprint of our metals recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel, aluminum, and copper operations and for our scrap generating customers. Our metals recycling team partners closely with our metals production and manufacturing teams to expand scrap separation capabilities through advanced process and technology solutions.
我們的金屬回收平台在北美地區的地理佈局,為我們的鋼鐵、鋁和銅業務以及我們的廢料產生客戶提供了戰略競爭優勢。我們的金屬回收團隊與我們的金屬生產製造團隊緊密合作,透過先進的製程和技術解決方案來擴大廢料分離能力。
This collaboration helps mitigate supply risk by making more grades of ferrous and nonferrous scrap usable for operating platforms and generally at a lower cost. Additionally, it positions us to significantly increase the recycled content in our products, unlocking enhanced earnings capabilities.
此次合作有助於降低供應風險,使更多等級的黑色金屬和有色金屬廢料可用於營運平台,並且通常成本更低。此外,這將使我們能夠大幅提高產品中的再生材料含量,從而釋放更大的獲利能力。
The steel team delivered a solid quarter with record shipments of 3.6 million tons. In the third quarter of 2025, the domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 78%, while our steel mills operated at a notably higher rate of 88%. This consistently higher utilization reflects our value-added steel product diversification, differentiated customer supply chain solutions and strong support from our internal manufacturing businesses.
鋼鐵團隊本季表現出色,出貨量創下360萬噸的紀錄。2025 年第三季度,國內鋼鐵業的生產利用率預計為 78%,而我國鋼鐵廠的生產利用率則明顯更高,達到 88%。持續較高的利用率反映了我們對增值鋼鐵產品多元化、差異化的客戶供應鏈解決方案以及我們內部製造業務的大力支持。
Our elevated through-cycle utilization rate is a key competitive advantage, underpinning our growing cash generation capability. Overall realized steel pricing slightly declined in the quarter due to lower flat-rolled steel pricing tied to lagging contracts, which more than offset increasing structural and railroad rail pricing.
我們較高的周期利用率是一項關鍵的競爭優勢,支撐著我們不斷成長的現金創造能力。由於合約滯後導致扁鋼價格走低,本季整體鋼材實際價格略有下降,但這足以抵消結構鋼和鐵路鋼價格上漲的影響。
Overall, domestic steel inventories remain lean from a historical basis. However, coated flat-rolled steel volume and pricing compressed during the quarter due to an inventory overhang related to imports received earlier in the year prior to the positive related trade rolling. We do believe that prices have bottomed out and will improve as we head into 2026.
整體而言,從歷史角度來看,國內鋼鐵庫存仍然偏低。然而,由於年初進口貨物造成的庫存積壓,以及之後貿易狀況向好,塗層扁軋鋼的產量和價格在本季受到壓縮。我們相信價格已經觸底,隨著我們邁入 2026 年,價格將會好轉。
Last month, the ITC unanimously voted affirmatively on the final determination that imports of corrosion-resistant steel from 10 countries injured the US steel industry. This uniquely positions us as we are the largest producer of nonautomotive coated flat-rolled steel products in North America.
上個月,美國國際貿易委員會一致投票贊成最終裁定,從 10 個國家進口耐腐蝕鋼損害了美國鋼鐵業。這使我們擁有獨特的優勢,因為我們是北美最大的非汽車塗層扁軋鋼產品生產商。
Together with the announced Section 232 steel tariffs, these developments are expected to positively impact demand for lower carbon emission US-produced steel products. The underlying steel demand remains steady, However, customers continue to exercise caution in placing orders to ongoing changes in trade policies.
加上已宣布的第 232 條款鋼鐵關稅,這些進展預計將對低碳排放的美國產鋼鐵產品的需求產生積極影響。儘管鋼鐵需求基本上保持穩定,但由於貿易政策不斷變化,客戶在下訂單時仍保持謹慎。
That said, we believe steel prices have stabilized in the near term with potential for upward movement in 2026. Our Sinton, Texas flat-rolled steel mill achieved higher earnings in the third quarter, driven by record shipments and the continued efficiency and quality gains. Congratulations to the team.
儘管如此,我們認為鋼鐵價格在短期內已經穩定,並有可能在 2026 年上漲。在創紀錄的出貨量以及效率和品質的持續提升的推動下,我們位於德州辛頓的扁軋鋼廠第三季實現了更高的收益。祝賀團隊。
The team continues to make improvements in yield cost reduction and quality. They are also continuing towards additional product development to expand our current flat-rolled steel capabilities. Meaningful progress has been made on unique high-quality API pipe grades, high-strength grade 10 110, pressure vessel quality and OEM qualification packages for our automotive customers.
團隊在降低產量成本和提高品質方面持續取得進步。他們也持續進行其他產品開發,以擴大我們目前的扁軋鋼材生產能力。我們在獨特的優質 API 管材等級、高強度 10 110 級、壓力容器品質以及為汽車客戶提供的 OEM 認證方案方面取得了實質進展。
We are seeing increased shipments from SIM's value-added coating lines which are strengthening the facilities product mix and boosting its through-cycle earnings capabilities. Regarding the steel market environment, North American automotive production estimates for 2026 were recently revised modestly upward yet currently remain modestly below 2025 forecast.
我們看到 SIM 的增值塗層生產線的出貨量不斷增加,這增強了工廠的產品組合,並提高了其貫穿整個週期的獲利能力。關於鋼鐵市場環境,北美2026年的汽車產量預測最近略為上調,但目前仍略低於2025年的預測。
Fortunately, our specific automotive customer base has not only remained stable but have provided opportunities for growth. We have become a supplier of choice for many US-based European and Asian automotive producers due to our superior carbon content capabilities. Additionally, numerous announcements have been made concerning a considerable volume of automotive production moving to the US from foreign locations in the coming years.
幸運的是,我們特定的汽車客戶群不僅保持穩定,而且還提供了成長機會。由於我們卓越的碳含量能力,我們已成為許多美國本土、歐洲和亞洲汽車製造商的首選供應商。此外,還有許多公告稱,未來幾年將有大量汽車生產從國外轉移到美國。
We continue to grow market share in both flat-rolled and SBQ steels within the automotive sector. Nonresidential construction should benefit from ongoing onshoring activity, recently announced domestic manufacturing projects and continued infrastructure spending that are expected to further support fixed asset investment construction-related demand.
我們在汽車行業的扁軋鋼和SBQ鋼的市場份額持續成長。非住宅建築將受益於持續的本土化活動、近期宣布的國內製造業項目以及持續的基礎設施支出,預計這些因素將進一步支持固定資產投資和建築相關需求。
In the energy sector, oil and gas activity remains steady, with solar continuing to be very strong as producers adapt to benefit from expiring incentives. Overall, we remain extremely optimistic concerning steel demand and pricing dynamics for the domestic producers in the coming years based on the expected demand from new manufacturing and US-produced steel content requirements.
在能源領域,石油和天然氣活動保持穩定,而太陽能產業則繼續保持強勁勢頭,因為生產商正在調整策略以從即將到期的激勵措施中獲益。總體而言,基於新製造業的預期需求和美國產鋼鐵含量要求,我們對未來幾年國內生產商的鋼鐵需求和價格動態仍然非常樂觀。
With that, I'll return it to Mark Millet.
這樣,我就可以把它還給馬克米勒了。
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Super, Mr. Schneider. I appreciate that. Thank you, Theresa. So after many years, I think it's clearly evident that our performance-driven team-based culture in combination with a proven, diversified and value-added business model drive superior financial metrics.
太好了,施耐德先生。我很感激。謝謝你,特蕾莎。經過多年發展,我認為很明顯,我們以績效為導向的團隊文化,結合成熟的、多元化的、增值型的商業模式,能夠帶來卓越的財務指標。
This consistently strong operating and financial performance continues to support our cash generation and growth investment strategies, allowing a very balanced cash allocation strategy that has delivered the highest shareholder returns, not only among our metals peers for the best of domestic manufacturers.
這種持續強勁的經營和財務業績繼續支持我們的現金創造和成長投資策略,從而實現了非常平衡的現金配置策略,為股東帶來了最高的回報,不僅在我們的金屬同行中,而且在國內最好的製造商中也是如此。
Our disciplined investment approach continues to support a strong and growing cash generation profile while maintaining a best-in-class return on invested capital. Our aluminum investments are now a reality and are extremely compelling. Initial operations and commercial activity are confirming our initial investment premise.
我們嚴謹的投資策略持續支撐著強勁且不斷成長的現金流,同時保持一流的投資報酬率。我們在鋁業的投資如今已成為現實,而且極具吸引力。初步營運和商業活動證實了我們最初的投資假設。
We believe we will enjoy a unique commercial position. Unlike our entry into the oversupplied steel market some years ago, there's a significant domestic supply deficit of over 1.4 million tons for aluminum sheet. And this deficit is forecasted to grow even before tariffs. In 2024, that deficit was supplied through high-cost imports, which are now at an even higher cost as the tariffs increased from 10% from 24% to the current 50% level.
我們相信我們將擁有獨特的商業地位。與我們幾年前進入鋼鐵市場時供應過剩的情況不同,目前國內鋁板供應缺口超過 140 萬噸。而且,即便不考慮關稅,預計這一赤字還會繼續擴大。2024 年,這一缺口是透過高成本進口來彌補的,而現在由於關稅從 10% 到 24% 再到目前的 50%,進口成本更高了。
There's a clear alignment with many of SDI's core competencies. Our construction capabilities have been once again proven. Both Columbus and SLP are state-of-the-art assets. And if you just think about it for a second, we shipped our first coil within 24 months of groundbreaking.
這與SDI的許多核心競爭力明顯契合。我們的施工能力再次得到了證明。哥倫布和SLP都是最先進的資產。仔細想想,我們在破土動工後 24 個月內就交付了第一批線圈。
And here we stand today, 27 months from groundbreaking and we're shipping a prime product to the can sheet in automotive markets. That's an absolutely incredible, incredible performance. My hats off to the team down there to Glen pushes into Greg Wigan everyone for making that happen. It's an absolutely beautiful, beautiful facility, work of art.
今天,距離破土動工已經過了 27 個月,我們正在向汽車市場的罐體板材供應優質產品。那真是一場令人難以置信的精彩表演。我向那裡的團隊致敬,感謝格倫、格雷格、維岡以及所有人的共同努力,促成了這件事。這是一個非常漂亮、非常精美的設施,簡直是一件藝術品。
We also lever our deep operational know-how, have an extensive and successful experience operating melting, casting rolling type assets. And our performance-driven culture will drive higher efficiency and lower cost operations, just as we did when we entered the steel industry some 30-plus years ago. It's demonstrated and the teams will achieve.
我們也充分利用我們深厚的營運知識,在熔煉、鑄造、軋製等設備的運作方面擁有豐富的成功經驗。我們以績效為導向的企業文化將推動更高的效率和更低的成本運營,就像我們30多年前進入鋼鐵業時所做的那樣。這一點已經得到證明,各隊也必將取得成功。
We have an advantaged commercial position. Two-thirds of our carbon flat rolled steel customers also consume and process aluminum flat rolled sheet. Our growth and penetration into the automotive sector will complement our existing steel position and give customers product optionality. The countercyclical beverage can market which, in conjunction with the more stable earnings profile experienced through the use within the aluminum space will further enhance the consistency of our through-cycle cash generation.
我們擁有有利的商業地位。我們三分之二的碳素扁軋鋼客戶也消耗和加工鋁扁軋板。我們在汽車產業的成長和滲透將補充我們現有的鋼鐵市場地位,並為客戶提供產品選擇。反週期的飲料罐市場,加上鋁材領域使用帶來的更穩定的獲利狀況,將進一步增強我們週期性現金流的穩定性。
Our own material platform will facilitate higher recycled content. We are the largest North American metal recycle, including aluminum, we recycle already around about GBP0.5 billion of [linen] per year. And we've successfully developed new separation technologies, allowing us to have both more access to usable aluminum scrap at a lower cost.
我們自己的材料平台將有助於提高再生材料的使用比例。我們是北美最大的金屬回收公司,包括鋁,我們每年回收價值約 5 億英鎊的[亞麻製品]。我們已經成功開發出新的分離技術,使我們能夠以更低的成本獲得更多可用的鋁廢料。
Operational experience thus far is confirming our earnings differentiation. We've advertised and do believe that through-cycle EBITDA of $650 million to $700 million is absolutely achievable, plus an additional $40 million to $50 million for our omni operations.
目前的營運經驗證實了我們獲利能力的差異化優勢。我們已經宣傳過,並且相信整個週期 EBITDA 達到 6.5 億美元至 7 億美元是完全可以實現的,再加上我們全通路營運帶來的 4000 萬美元至 5000 萬美元。
The key areas of advantage remain labor efficiency, higher recycled content, higher yield and optimize logistics along with our low-cost culture. There is no doubt the strategic investment is a cost-effective and high return growth opportunity, providing SDI with additional countercyclical diversification further stabilizing and growing our cash generation capabilities.
我們的主要優勢在於提高勞動效率、提高再生材料含量、提高產量並優化物流,同時維持低成本文化。毫無疑問,這項策略性投資是一項成本效益高、回報豐厚的成長機會,為 SDI 提供了額外的反週期多元化,進一步穩定並增強了我們的現金創造能力。
And for those that have been there, you understand it. The 650,000 metric ton charging is no longer a vision. It's clearly here. As our aluminum growth has become a reality and our reputation permeates the industry, aluminum professionals with vast experience have joined us in this excelling project. They see the vision and are energized by our culture where they realize that they will be heard and can have a real impact.
而那些親身經歷過的人,都會明白那種感受。年發電量達65萬噸不再是願景。它就在這裡。隨著我們鋁業業務的成長成為現實,我們的聲譽在業界廣為人知,許多經驗豐富的鋁業專業人士也加入了我們這個卓越的計畫。他們認同我們的願景,並被我們的文化所激勵,因為他們意識到自己的聲音會被聽到,並且能夠產生真正的影響。
They have helped us build a phenomenal team that combines in-depth knowledge of aluminum flat-roll operations, commercial markets, process technology, and custom service complementing our SDI professionals that bring our performance-driven entrepreneurial culture. We're finding the customer base is excited to have a new market entrant that is known to be innovative, customer-focused, and responsive to their needs.
他們幫助我們組建了一支卓越的團隊,該團隊結合了對鋁扁軋作業、商業市場、工藝技術和定制服務的深入了解,與我們 SDI 的專業人員相輔相成,後者帶來了我們以業績為導向的創業文化。我們發現,客戶群對市場上出現一家以創新、以客戶為中心、能夠快速回應客戶需求而聞名的新公司感到興奮。
For us, as in with steel, business relationships are long term founded on trust and the continuous goal of creating mutual value, not simply financial value, for new supply chain solutions, new products, better quality, and better service. We are seen to react with surprising speed. Many customers have just seen that with the recent supply side challenges in the market.
對我們來說,就像鋼鐵業一樣,長期的商業關係建立在信任和不斷創造共同價值(而不僅僅是財務價值)的目標之上,例如新的供應鏈解決方案、新產品、更好的品質和更好的服務。我們反應速度驚人。許多客戶已經從近期市場供應方面的挑戰中體會到了這一點。
The timing of our ramp-up has been fortuitous, allowing us to help the market while accelerating our material qualification. We received approvals for industrial and can sheet finished products and for automotive aluminum hot band earlier this month. This accelerated certification should allow us to shift our product mix to a higher-margin mix in 2026, reaching optimization sometime in 2017.
我們的產能提升時機恰到好處,使我們能夠在幫助市場的同時,加快材料認證進程。本月初,我們獲得了工業和罐頭板材成品以及汽車鋁熱帶材的認證。此次加速認證將使我們能夠在 2026 年將產品組合轉向利潤率更高的產品組合,並在 2017 年的某個時候達到優化狀態。
Three of the four melt cathouses are fully commissioned at Columbus and have produced 3,000 5,000 6,000 series ingots for the industrial, can sheet and automotive sectors for rolling mill commissioning product development and commercial shipment. The hot mill is completing its commissioning, having run 3003 and 5052 industrial, 3104 can (technical difficulty) and 754 auto grade material.
哥倫布的四個熔煉爐中有三個已經全面投入使用,為工業、罐板和汽車行業生產了 3,000 個 5,000 個 6,000 系列鋼錠,用於軋鋼廠調試、產品開發和商業運輸。熱軋機已完成調試,生產了 3003 和 5052 工業用鋼、3104 罐用鋼(技術難題)和 754 汽車用鋼。
The code reversing mill is in startup and is successfully producing 3003, 5052 and 3104 alloys. Tandem mill number one will be starting up in November and then Tandem mill number two and the cash line are on schedule to be available in the first quarter of 2026 and it's absolutely incredible if you walk through the plan because the team is incredibly excited with the earlier-than-anticipated product certification.
可逆式軋機正在啟動,並成功生產 3003、5052 和 3104 合金。一號串聯式軋機將於 11 月啟動,二號串聯式軋機和現金流預計將於 2026 年第一季按計畫投入使用。如果你仔細研究這個計劃,你會覺得這簡直不可思議,因為團隊對產品認證比預期更早獲得批准感到非常興奮。
It is a testament to the phenomenal talent that we have on the team and is great energy, great momentum. We anticipate exiting 2026 at a rate of 75% capability, and we expect to achieve monthly EBITDA breakeven sometime in the fourth quarter and increasing thereafter as we continue to ramp and optimize our product mix.
這證明了我們團隊擁有非凡的才能,也展現了強大的活力與動力。我們預計到 2026 年底產能將達到 75%,並預計在第四季度某個時候實現每月 EBITDA 盈虧平衡,此後隨著我們不斷擴大產能和優化產品組合,EBITDA 將持續成長。
Across our business, evolving market dynamics provide an opportunity for us to further enhance our earnings potential. The renewed focus on strategic mercantilist policies to ensure fair and sustainable competition will further improve market strength. The recent coated flat-rolled steel positive trade determination will further curb core and prepaying imports. We're seeing that already. The administration will continue to hold a firm position on tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
在我們整個業務範圍內,不斷變化的市場動態為我們進一步提高獲利潛力提供了機會。重新重視策略性重商主義政策,以確保公平和永續的競爭,將進一步增強市場實力。最近對塗層扁軋鋼的貿易積極裁定將進一步抑制核心鋼和預付鋼的進口。我們已經看到這種情況了。政府將繼續對鋼鐵和鋁進口徵收關稅,並保持堅定立場。
And the inclusion of tariffs on steel content or derivative products, including fabricated structural steel, which has played the domestic industry for years will be substantial benefit. One has to consider that in '24 some 30 million to 35 million ton of steel came in through actual products. And then last year, obviously, the successful sunset reviews of Section 201 and 301 trade cases will remain in place for some years, stopping dumped Chinese steel for accessing our markets.
對鋼鐵含量或衍生產品(包括多年來一直支撐國內產業的結構鋼)徵收關稅,將帶來巨大的好處。必須考慮到,1924 年透過實際產品進口的鋼鐵量約為 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬噸。然後,很顯然,去年對第 201 條款和第 301 條款貿易案件的成功日落審查將繼續有效幾年,阻止傾銷的中國鋼鐵進入我們的市場。
We will benefit from growing fixed asset investment, which correlates directly with increased steel demand. Risk mitigation to address numerous supply chain dislocations as accelerated reshoring of manufacturing by many OEMs. I AI and cloud computing will support the need for more nonresidential construction, along with data centers, chip factories, and battery plants.
我們將受益於固定資產投資的成長,這與鋼鐵需求的成長直接相關。為因應眾多供應鏈中斷問題,需採取風險緩解措施,因為許多原始設備製造商正在加速將生產遷回國內。人工智慧和雲端運算將滿足對更多非住宅建築的需求,以及資料中心、晶片工廠和電池工廠的需求。
We believe that obviously will be associated positive stimulus through the inevitable interest rate reductions that should happen this year and the next. And finally, decarbonization. We're materially steepen the global cost curve providing steel dynamics with a meaningful competitive advantage to gain market share and increase margins. More importantly, we continue to be in passion by our current and future growth plans.
我們認為,這顯然會帶來正面的刺激,因為今年和明年必然會推出降息措施。最後,是脫碳。我們正在大幅拉大全球成本曲線,為鋼鐵業帶來顯著的競爭優勢,從而獲得市場份額並提高利潤率。更重要的是,我們對當前和未來的發展計畫仍然充滿熱情。
As they will continue to drive the high return growth momentum we have consistently demonstrated over the years. The earnings growth of these new projects is compelling. Capital spending for symptom, the four value add lines and alum Dynamics is largely spent for the projected future through-cycle EBITDA contribution of over $1.4 billion.
它們將繼續推動我們多年來一直展現出的高回報成長動能。這些新項目的獲利成長前景十分可觀。症狀、四條增值生產線和鋁動態的資本支出主要用於預計未來貫穿週期的 EBITDA 貢獻超過 14 億美元。
Steel Dynamics has grown to an incredibly resilient cash-generating business of scale and diversification, driven by the best teams, as I already said, in the world. The model has now demonstrated itself year after year. delivering financial metrics equivalent to best-in-class manufacturing companies. We are fortunate and at the heart of that good fortune are our people.
正如我之前所說,在世界上最好的團隊的推動下,鋼鐵動力公司已經發展成為一家規模龐大、多元化且極具韌性的現金流創造企業。該模式已經年復一年地證明了自身的價值,其財務指標與一流製造企業不相上下。我們很幸運,而這份幸運的核心在於我們的人民。
They are the foundation of everything we do, and I want to personally thank each of them for their passion, their commitment and unwavering dedication. And we are committed to them. And I remind those listening today that safety for yourselves, your families and each other is our highest priority, always. And I would also be remiss not to express my gratitude to our loyal customers, many of whom have been with us since the beginning.
他們是我們一切工作的基石,我要親自感謝他們每一個人,感謝他們的熱情、投入和堅定不移的奉獻。我們對他們承諾不渝。我今天要提醒在座的各位,保障你們自身、你們的家人、彼此的安全始終是我們的首要任務。此外,我還要向我們忠實的顧客表達我的感激之情,他們中的許多人從公司創立之初就一直陪伴著我們。
These partnerships are built on mutual trust keeping our word and delivering innovative solutions that enhance your value. Our new aluminum partners can expect the same level of commitment and collaboration and to our suppliers and service providers thank you. We value your continued support and the strong relationships we've built together.
這些合作關係建立在互信之上,我們信守承諾,並提供能夠提升您價值的創新解決方案。我們新的鋁業合作夥伴可以期待我們同樣高度的投入和協作,同時我們也感謝我們的供應商和服務提供者。我們珍惜您一直以來的支持以及我們共同建立的牢固關係。
Our culture and business model continue to differentiate our performance, leading best-in-class financial performance. and as a circular metals business, we are uniquely positioned to offer lower carbon supply chain solutions, enhancing sustainability while helping to mitigate cash flow volatility through all market cycles.
我們的企業文化和商業模式持續提升我們的業績,引領業界領先的財務表現。作為一家循環金屬企業,我們擁有獨特的優勢,能夠提供低碳供應鏈解決方案,在增強永續性的同時,幫助企業在所有市場週期中降低現金流波動。
This positions us to deliver superior shareholder returns and create lasting value for all stakeholders. So we look forward to creating new opportunities for all of us and today and in the years ahead. And with that said, Elie, we would love to open the line for questions.
這使我們能夠為股東帶來卓越的回報,並為所有利害關係人創造持久的價值。因此,我們期待為大家創造新的機遇,無論是在今天還是在未來的歲月裡。埃利,接下來我們想接受大家的提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Katja Jancic, BMO.
(操作員說明)Katja Jancic,BMO。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Maybe starting on the aluminum rolling mill and the quality qualifications for the products you received so far. Can you talk a bit more what that means for your commercial activity, specifically does that open the door for you to start negotiating more longer-term contracts?
或許可以從鋁軋機以及您目前收到的產品的品質資質入手。您能否再詳細談談這對您的商業活動意味著什麼?具體來說,這是否為您開始談判更長期的合約打開了大門?
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I guess, firstly, the accelerated qualifications that we've been receiving is absolutely incredible, given where we are on our learning curve as you might recognize. Can sheet has been supplied to most of the principal carmakers today for qualification.
嗯,我想,首先,考慮到我們目前的學習進度,我們所獲得的加速資格認證絕對是不可思議的,正如你可能已經了解的那樣。目前,大多數主要汽車製造商都已收到用於認證的罐體板材。
Early performance is, again, it's just incredible. And when the team sent me a video of the very first coil going through a can line flawlessly, it was a some to be home. And obviously, we are also having some good progress within automotive. I think what it does it accelerates the value or the product portfolio mix into next year.
早期表現,再次令人難以置信。當團隊給我發來一段視頻,視頻中第一個線圈完美地穿過罐頭生產線時,我簡直太高興回家了。顯然,我們在汽車領域也取得了一些不錯的進展。我認為這樣做會加速明年產品組合的價值或組合變化。
And we've always said that we hit our target mix in 2027. I think we'll see that earlier in 2017 than we were expecting.
我們一直都說,我們將在 2027 年實現我們的目標組合。我認為我們會在2017年比預期更早看到這種情況。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
But to answer your other question, Katja, we are negotiating longer-term contracts, both in the sheet, the can sheet as well as the automotive -- so yes, that has helped, but we had considerable traction, I think, throughout the third quarter as we were starting up. So more to follow on that.
但要回答你的另一個問題,Katja,我們正在洽談更長期的合同,包括板材、罐頭板材以及汽車行業——所以是的,這有所幫助,但我認為,我們在第三季度起步階段取得了相當大的進展。關於這一點,後續還有更多內容。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Maybe if I just can quickly squeeze one more. On the 26, how should we think about the mix between industrial, can and auto.
也許我還能再擠出一個。26日,我們該如何看待工業、罐頭和汽車之間的融合?
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
The most significant difference, Katja, is that earlier on, we wouldn't have expected to have very much volume in automotive specifically. And we have full confidence and we were getting to, I think, appropriate amount of mix as it relates to can sheet in 2026.
卡佳,最顯著的差異在於,早些時候,我們並沒有預料到汽車產業的銷售量會非常大。我們充滿信心,而且我認為,到 2026 年,我們在罐頭板材方面已經達到了適當的混合比例。
As you'll remember, the optimized mix for us is it's automotive, I think, is it 40% mark sorry. 45% in sheet in the remainder industrial. So we feel pretty confident in that can sheet mix for 2026. But what's changed is we would expect to not reach full optimization in automotive in 2026, but we'll provide more feedback as we get further certified.
您應該記得,我們優化後的產品組合中,汽車業佔比約為40%,抱歉,應該是45%(板材),其餘部分為工業用途。因此,我們對 2026 年的罐頭板材組合相當有信心。但變化在於,我們預計到 2026 年汽車領域還無法完全優化,但隨著我們獲得進一步的認證,我們將提供更多回饋。
Because as Mark pointed out, for automotive right now, we're just certified on the hot band side.
正如馬克所指出的那樣,就目前汽車行業而言,我們只在熱頻段方面獲得了認證。
Operator
Operator
Tristan Gresser, BNP Paribas.
Tristan Gresser,法國巴黎銀行。
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Just following up on aluminum, if you could provide maybe an update on the target exit run rate for this year or maybe what you expect in Q1 so we can get a better sense on what to expect in terms of volumes. And I think you were initially expecting positive EBITDA in Q4. So what drove the lower number? Any sort of delay or anything you can share there, that would be great.
關於鋁材方面,能否提供今年的目標出口運行率,或者您對第一季的預期,以便我們更了解銷售方面的預期?我認為你最初預期第四季度 EBITDA 為正。那麼,是什麼原因導致了較低的數字呢?如果您能告知任何延誤情況或其他信息,那就太好了。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
So Tristan, I just want to clarify. So we are still expecting to be a positive breakeven to -- sorry, EBITDA breakeven to positive in the fourth quarter. So that hasn't changed. What has changed is this the certification of the more complicated products is taking place more quickly than we expected.
特里斯坦,我只是想澄清一下。所以我們仍然預期第四季 EBITDA 將達到損益兩平,甚至達到獲利。所以這一點並沒有改變。變化在於,更複雜產品的認證速度比我們預期的還要快。
So there are some higher costs associated with that. So that was one of the things that I talked about in my opening comments as it relates to the third quarter impact. That said, we haven't been specific about how we're going to ramp in 2026. But what we have done is provided substantiation that we still are very confident in exiting the year at least at a 75% utilization rate.
所以這樣做會產生一些更高的成本。所以,這是我在開場白中談到的與第三季影響相關的問題之一。也就是說,我們還沒有具體說明我們將如何在 2026 年擴大生產規模。但我們所做的已經證實,我們仍然非常有信心在年底前至少達到 75% 的利用率。
And as it relates to 2025, there's just a lot of moving pieces right now. So we don't want to get into utilization because it depends on the product mix to a large extent.
至於 2025 年,目前有許多不確定因素。所以我們不想深入探討使用率,因為它在很大程度上取決於產品組合。
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Okay. All right. That's fair. And maybe just a quick one on the free cash flow. I mean, you have a very strong free cash flow look -- if you can talk a little bit about your priority in terms of capital allocation into next year, you mentioned CapEx will be between $500 million, $600 million. Is growth on the agenda for next year?
好的。好的。這很合理。或許還可以簡單問一下自由現金流的狀況。我的意思是,你們的自由現金流看起來非常強勁——如果可以的話,請談談你們明年在資本配置方面的優先事項,你們提到資本支出將在 5 億美元到 6 億美元之間。明年的成長是否在議程之內?
And if so, what are the options you may consider upstream steel, aluminum, are you considering maybe different types of metallics asset that could be on play in the region? So any color there would be great.
如果是這樣,您可能會考慮哪些上游選項?例如鋼鐵、鋁?您是否考慮過該地區可能存在的其他類型的金屬資產?所以任何顏色都行。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Mark can speak to what things might look like, but just to give you some specificity around the $500 million to $600 million, Justin. As a reminder, our sustaining capital is generally around $200 million to $250 million. And then we still will have a tail associated with the aluminum project and a little bit on the biocarbon project as well.
馬克可以談談事情可能會是什麼樣子,但賈斯汀,為了讓你更具體地了解 5 億到 6 億美元的情況。再次提醒,我們的維持性資本一般在 2 億至 2.5 億美元左右。此外,我們還會有一些與鋁專案相關的尾部工作,以及一些與生物碳專案相關的工作。
It just depends on the timing as we proceed through the end of this year. So that is a preliminary number. But Mark, I don't know if you want to give any context to what other growth opportunities we might be looking towards.
這完全取決於今年年底的具體時間安排。這是初步估算數字。但是馬克,我不知道你是否願意透露我們可能正在尋求的其他成長機會。
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, just generally, on the cash allocation broadly. I think with our strong liquidity position and the through-cycle cash generation that will come through next year and the years after. We can retain our balanced cash allocation profile. So one can expect an increase in the dividend, I would think our positive profile will continue into next year.
嗯,總的來說,關於現金分配方面。我認為憑藉我們強勁的流動性狀況以及明年和未來幾年將持續的周期性現金流,我們能夠取得成功。我們可以維持均衡的現金配置水準。因此,我們可以預期股利會增加,我認為我們積極的業績動能將延續到明年。
We feel that the company is selling at an accruable discount today relative to other potential investments one might make -- so we'll continue to buy our shares back. And again, we're doing that not because necessary, our shareholders just want us to or we think it's a flavor of the month. It really is buying a company that is discounted, a quality company that we know with a phenomenal team, phenomenal assets.
我們認為,相對於其他潛在投資而言,該公司目前的股價存在可累積的折扣——因此,我們將繼續回購股票。再次強調,我們這樣做並非出於必要,而是股東們希望我們這樣做,或者我們認為這只是當下的一種趨勢。這實際上是收購一家價格被低估的公司,一家我們熟知的擁有卓越團隊和卓越資產的優質公司。
Extending from that -- we still have a team that is innovative and creative. They've got a pipeline of organic possibilities, both in steel and aluminum and that will access new products, new product lines for us. Now those aren't massive $3 billion greenfield steel mills, but smaller projects but very, very high return, high reward.
由此延伸——我們仍然擁有一支富有創新精神和創造力的團隊。他們擁有豐富的有機產品線,涵蓋鋼鐵和鋁材領域,這將為我們帶來新產品、新產品線。這些雖然不是耗資 30 億美元的大型新建鋼鐵廠,而是規模較小的項目,但回報卻非常非常高。
And then obviously, there's the possibility of M&A activity out there. you, but just one highlight, I guess. But you will continue to see us adhere to our disciplined investment approach. I think we have the highest return on invested capital in our space for a reason.
當然,市場上也存在著併購活動的可能性。不過,我只想重點說說其中一個面向。但你們仍會看到我們堅持我們嚴謹的投資策略。我認為我們在同領域擁有最高的投資報酬率是有原因的。
We're disciplined, and we bought good assets with real return, real future return. And you'll see that going forward.
我們行事嚴謹,購買了能夠帶來實際回報和未來實際回報的優質資產。以後你會看到這種情況。
Operator
Operator
Timna Tanners, Wells Fargo.
蒂姆娜·坦納斯,富國銀行。
Timna Tanner - Analyst
Timna Tanner - Analyst
I wanted to follow up, if I could, on the aluminum questions. So you're starting up and getting qualified on hot band just when there's a player in the market that needs hot band. So could you address that ability to supply Novelis, if possible. And then if you could just comment on the additional CapEx, I believe comparing the presentation that there's another $200 million that was attributed to the aluminum start-up, if you could elaborate on that?
如果可以的話,我想就鋁的問題進行進一步探討。所以,你剛開始學習並獲得熱門頻段的資格,而市場上正好有一家公司需要熱門頻段。那麼,如果可能的話,您能否說明一下向Novelis供貨的能力?那麼,如果您能就額外的資本支出發表一下看法,我相信根據演示文稿,其中提到有另外 2 億美元用於鋁業初創項目,您能否詳細說明一下?
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, Timna, again, thanks for your questions. We will not comment on where our material is going. I think the aluminum space is a lot more shielded from a confidentiality standpoint relative to steel. And so most of our relationships are under CA or NDAs.
提姆娜,再次感謝你的提問。我們不會透露我們的物資將流向何處。我認為從保密角度來看,鋁材領域比鋼材領域更具保護性。因此,我們的大部分關係都受到合約協議或保密協議的約束。
So I can't really speak to that other than it's absolutely phenomenal that the team in such a short period of time is accessing those sorts of markets. Relative to the CapEx, yes, it did expand. Again, in all honestly, it's kind of the wind down of the project and just clearing up all the construction contracts.
所以除了球隊能在如此短的時間內打入這些市場絕對令人驚嘆之外,我真的沒什麼好說的。相對於資本支出而言,是的,它的確擴張了。說實話,現在差不多是工程收尾階段,正在清理所有的施工合約。
But I think more importantly, the last three months -- it has been -- in particular, it's been incredibly difficult to get electrical talent with all the data centers, et cetera, being built. We found our contractors sort of drifting away from us and there was a substantial increase in the cost to cover that and maintain our schedule.
但我認為更重要的是,在過去的三個月裡——尤其是最近三個月——由於資料中心等設施的建設,招募電氣人才變得異常困難。我們發現承包商逐漸疏遠了我們,為了彌補損失並維持我們的工期,成本大幅增加。
Timna Tanner - Analyst
Timna Tanner - Analyst
Got it. If I could squeeze one more in. There was a comment yesterday that there is a view that customers would be switching away from aluminum back to steel because of the availability, not something we'd heard before. And just would be interested to get your thoughts on that as you're now in both markets.
知道了。如果還能擠出一點時間就好了。昨天有人評論說,由於鋼材供應問題,顧客可能會放棄鋁材而重新選擇鋼材,這是我們以前從未聽說過的。我很想聽聽您對此的看法,因為您現在同時涉足這兩個市場。
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think, obviously, if you're a lion consumer and you've seen the sort of supply chain risk that they've just gone through, you've got to ask that question. I think and you've heard us say this before, as we got into the aluminum space and looking for -- just looking -- doing our due diligence for the ADI project.
嗯,我覺得,很顯然,如果你是個消費大戶,並且看到了他們剛剛經歷的那種供應鏈風險,你就必須問這個問題。我想,你們以前也聽我們說過,當我們進入鋁業領域並尋找——僅僅是尋找——對 ADI 項目進行盡職調查時,我們就是這麼做的。
Automotive makers would have actually consumed more aluminum over recent years if there was more supply. So it's -- are they questioning Alum? I don't think so. Aluminum is an incredibly important material for the future plans. We coming on to -- coming into the marketplace will allow them optionality and create redundancies through the supply chain.
如果鋁供應量增加,汽車製造商近年來實際消耗的鋁量會更多。所以問題是──他們是在質問 Alum 嗎?我不這麼認為。鋁是未來規劃中極為重要的材料。我們即將進入市場,這將使他們擁有更多選擇,並透過供應鏈創造冗餘。
So I think that issue or that question will sort of be mitigated going forward.
所以我認為這個問題以後會得到緩解。
Operator
Operator
Lawson Winder, Bank of America.
勞森·溫德,美國銀行。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Great. And good morning, Mark, Theresa, and Barry. It's nice to hear from you. And a sincere congratulations on the success of aluminum dynamics. What I wanted to do is just a follow-up, Mark, on your comments on capital allocation and that you noted that M&A might be a possibility.
偉大的。早上好,馬克、特蕾莎和巴瑞。很高興收到你的來信。衷心祝賀鋁動力技術取得成功。馬克,我只是想就你之前關於資本配置的評論,以及你提到的併購可能是一種可能性,做一個後續說明。
Can you give us a flavor of where there might be opportunities to improve the business through M&A, whether that be in downstream or upstream or raw materials or otherwise?
您能否簡要介紹一下,在哪些方面可以透過併購來改善業務,無論是下游、上游、原材料或其他方面?
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
It -- we would steer away from raw materials I do believe. I think it's it would be aligned or parallel our previous commentary in downstream strategic sort of pull-through volume type opportunities where we can either lever or exploit our core strengths. So downstream in coating, the painting, those value-add opportunities, for sure in value-add sort of manufacturing to some degree, as long as the volumes are there, and it makes sense.
我認為我們會避開原料。我認為這與我們先前在下游策略性拉動式銷售機會方面的評論是一致的,或者說是平行的,我們可以利用或發揮我們的核心優勢。因此,在下游的塗裝、噴漆等增值環節,以及一定程度上的增值製造環節,只要產量足夠,就肯定有增值機會,而且這樣做也是合理的。
But no, not upstream. Our raw materials space with OmniSource, we're the largest North American recycler of Ferris and non-goods today that's in great shape. You might see a little -- from a regional standpoint, a yard here or there, but no major thing.
但不是上游。我們與 OmniSource 的原料業務,使我們成為北美最大的 Ferris 和非商品回收商,目前業務發展良好。從區域角度來看,你可能會看到一些,零星的院子,但不會有大事發生。
Yes, downstream value-add as we've pursued in the past.
是的,正如我們過去一直追求的那樣,下游增值。
Operator
Operator
Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs,KeyBanc Capital Markets。
Phil Gibbs - Analyst
Phil Gibbs - Analyst
It sounds like based on your comments that rail is pretty strong. any context just broadly you can give on that market? And then maybe give us a feel for how much of the rail mix is a part of your structural shipments right now?
聽起來,根據你的描述,鐵路市場相當強勁。能大致介紹一下這個市場的狀況嗎?然後,能否讓我們了解一下目前鐵路運輸在貴公司結構性貨物運輸中所佔的比例?
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
Phil, this is Barry. We committed many years ago to be in the rail market because it's essential that they have a reliable. So when wide plant is strong, you might see a smaller ratio. But in general, we try to say exactly where the customers need us to be. It remains within percentage points of where it always is coming out of Columbia City.
菲爾,這是巴里。多年前我們就決定進軍鐵路市場,因為對他們來說,擁有可靠的鐵路運輸至關重要。所以當寬葉植物生長旺盛時,你可能會看到較小的比例。但總的來說,我們會努力準確地告訴客戶我們需要在哪裡出現。它與哥倫比亞市以往的產量基本上保持一致,誤差在幾個百分點之內。
And we're resolving our contract relationships for next year right now, but we anticipate growth in that segment, and the team is doing an excellent job with availability of trains to get the product distributed easier, quicker.
我們現在正在處理明年的合約關係,但我們預計該領域將會成長,而且團隊在確保列車可用性方面做得非常出色,使產品更容易、更快地分銷。
And quality-wise, we're working on even better products coming in the next year or so based on some trials they've been doing. So it remains a good part of our business. But in the window that we always keep it. So we try to not to surge it too much 1 way or the other.
在品質方面,根據他們進行的一些試驗,我們正在努力研發更好的產品,預計在未來一年左右推出。所以它仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分。但在我們始終保留它的那個視窗裡。所以我們盡量避免讓它朝著任何一方發展過快。
Phil Gibbs - Analyst
Phil Gibbs - Analyst
And I just have a follow-up on the flat rolled side of the business. And specifically at Sinton and just an update maybe on how the downstream lines are running and how much yield improvement you have left there? And then Theresa, I also missed the comments you made on the flat rolled mix.
我還有一些關於扁平卷材業務的後續問題。具體來說,關於辛頓礦區的情況,能否提供一下下游生產線的運作情況以及產量還有多少提升空間?還有,Theresa,我錯過了你對扁平卷狀混合物的評論。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Sure. No problem. I'll grab that, and then Barry can comment.
當然。沒問題。我這就去拿,然後巴里可以發表評論。
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
I'll comment on the downstream units. We're very excited about the quality that the team is getting out of the new lines are added as well as the existing paint and galvanizing line. [ Galbaloom ] is a very difficult product to make. The team has really risen to the occasion. There is a learning curve.
我將對下游單元進行評論。我們對團隊利用新增生產線以及現有噴漆和鍍鋅生產線所取得的產品品質感到非常興奮。 [Galbaloom] 是一種生產難度很高的產品。團隊的表現確實令人刮目相看。這需要一個學習過程。
And we went through that earlier this year to the point where we are seeing excellent yields, excellent produced prime products.
今年早些時候,我們經歷了這個過程,現在我們看到了優異的產量,生產出了優質的產品。
And our distribution system and our customer base is going through approvals. A lot of the product there goes into contract-type business with OEMs. And those trials are ongoing and very good. So we believe Synta will have the full breadth of product mix to offer as the markets return. As I mentioned, there's a little overhang in the Galvanize still out there.
我們的分銷系統和客戶群正在接受審批。那裡的許多產品都以合約形式銷往原始設備製造商 (OEM)。這些試驗正在進行中,而且效果非常好。因此我們相信,隨著市場復甦,Synta 將能夠提供全方位的產品組合。正如我之前提到的,鍍鋅層還有一些殘留物。
We think that's diminished. We think it's going to be behind us here in months. The imports coming in the country have substantially tapered off. So we believe the playing field is going to be level. And based on good feelings.
我們認為這種情況有所減弱。我們認為幾個月後,這件事就會過去。該國的進口量已大幅減少。所以我們相信比賽環境將會是公平的。而且是出於美好的感覺。
We think next year is going to be outstanding for sending to really realize all the hard work they've been putting in.
我們認為明年將會是他們真正感受到自己所付出的所有努力的一年,而這一年將會非常精彩。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
So Phil, for the shipment, the hot band was 1,097,000 cold-rolled 120,000 and coated 1,486,000.
所以菲爾,這批貨物中,熱軋帶材有 1,097,000 根,冷軋帶材有 120,000 根,塗層帶材有 1486,000 根。
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Phil, if I could just add because the question rent structural tended to be rail-centric. Just looking at the long products market in general, we're finding that to be incredibly strong and robust and believe that we'll certainly continue nonresidential is in good great shape.
Phil,如果可以的話,我想補充一點,因為關於租金結構的問題往往以鐵路為中心。從整體來看,長材市場表現非常強勁,我們相信非住宅市場也將持續保持良好的發展動能。
And we see on the fabrication side, there's a lot of engineering sort of permitting detailing work going on -- and it would be our view that come the first quarter in 2016, we're going to see a nice return of that volume as well.
我們看到,在製造方面,有許多工程許可細節工作正在進行中——我們認為,到 2016 年第一季度,我們也將看到產量出現不錯的回升。
Operator
Operator
Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.
卡洛斯·德阿爾巴,摩根士丹利。
Carlos De alba - Analyst
Carlos De alba - Analyst
So I wanted to check, Mark, you mentioned that you saw some headwinds in the flow roll business. Has the situation improved as we get into the fourth quarter, if you can give us a little bit more color as to how that part of your steel business is shaping out.
所以我想確認一下,馬克,你提到你認為卷材業務遇到了一些不利因素。進入第四季度,情況是否有改善?可否請您詳細介紹一下貴公司鋼鐵業務這部分的發展?
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think the headwind obviously was principally the inventory overhang, which, as Barry just suggested is it's eroding and should be depleted by the end of this fourth quarter. And with the almost nonexistent import profile, first quarter should be in good shape.
是的。我認為最大的不利因素顯然是庫存過剩,正如巴里剛才提到的那樣,庫存過剩正在減少,應該會在本第四季末得到解決。由於進口需求幾乎為零,第一季的情況應該會不錯。
I think you started to see that hot band pricing softened through the quarter yet in mid-September, it kind of turned up. And I think we will see sort of slow but positive move through the end of this year. And as Barry said, we are quite, quite optimistic, or robust for Q1 and Q2 through the rest of '26.
我認為你開始看到熱門頻段的價格在本季度有所回落,但在 9 月中旬,價格又有所回升。我認為今年年底前我們會看到一種緩慢但積極的轉變。正如巴里所說,我們對 2026 年第一季和第二季以及剩餘時間的業績都非常樂觀,或者說非常強勁。
Carlos De alba - Analyst
Carlos De alba - Analyst
Fair enough. And then just maybe complementing on the growth ahead. Given the early success that you have had on the aluminum business, and your comments on demand being limited perhaps by supply. Would you -- I know that you didn't talk about potentially getting more into the aluminum business. Is this something that you might consider? Is it too early? Any color there?
很公平。然後或許可以對未來的發展表示讚賞。鑑於您在鋁業方面取得的早期成功,以及您對需求可能受供應限制的評論。我知道你沒有談到可能進一步涉足鋁業業務。您會考慮這樣做嗎?現在是不是太早了?那裡有顏色嗎?
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, we want to make sure we walk before we run. I got to say here, the team down there is starting to Sprint because they're incredibly excited. And I'm on to see incredibly excited by what those folks are doing is an incredible mill. There's absolute opportunity, call us in alumina.
嗯,我們得先學會走路,再學會跑步。我必須說,那邊的團隊已經開始衝刺了,因為他們都非常興奮。看到這些人正在做的事情,我感到無比興奮,他們打造了一個了不起的工廠。機會絕對多,快來聯絡我們,了解氧化鋁產業。
There's no doubt about it. We will see how things go over the next a month or so, but there is definitely growth opportunity there, both in downstream we could envision sort of exploiting or leveraging our pre-paint capabilities. It's one of our highest margin product lines today, and the team would be incredibly effective to coat the thousands or millions of pounds of alum that gets painted every year. And then we do believe there's still clear room for a larger asset, the mill asset.
這點毋庸置疑。接下來一個月左右的時間裡,我們將觀察事情的發展情況,但肯定存在成長機會,無論是在下游領域,我們都可以設想如何利用或發揮我們的預塗裝能力。這是我們目前利潤最高的產品線之一,該團隊將非常有效率地為每年塗漆的數千甚至數百萬磅明礬進行塗層處理。而且我們認為,對於規模更大的資產——磨粉廠資產——仍然有很大的空間。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Yes. Just as a reminder, Carlos, and I know some of you would have this top of mind, but for those that may not even prior to 50% tariffs, the deficit of flat-rolled sheet in the US was over 1.5 million metric tons. We're only adding $650,000. And I think there's another project that may add another incremental amount, but that deficits growing, and that's without tariffs.
是的。提醒一下,卡洛斯,我知道你們有些人肯定很在意這一點,但對於那些可能不知道的人來說,即使在 50% 的關稅實施之前,美國的扁軋板材缺口也超過 150 萬噸。我們只追加65萬美元。我認為還有另一個項目可能會增加額外的赤字,但這還不包括關稅。
So then when you place that 50% tariff into the equation, it just really does we would never invest based on that. But the point is that there's a real need structurally independent of trade action.
所以,當你把 50% 的關稅考慮進去時,我們真的不會基於此進行投資。但關鍵在於,存在著一種與貿易行動無關的、結構性的真正需求。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Jones, UBS.
瑞銀集團的安德魯瓊斯。
Andrew Jones - Analyst
Andrew Jones - Analyst
A couple of questions. Just firstly on sending just to idea as to how much that's adding to the EBITDA. Can you give us any sort of breakout for the profitability of that? And I've got a second question on tax, if you want that first.
幾個問題。首先,我只是想了解一下這能為 EBITDA 增加多少。能否提供一下這方面的獲利狀況分析?我還有一個關於稅收的問題,如果你想先問這個問題的話。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Sure, Andrew. And as soon as you said, taxes, both Barry and Mark looked away. No, I think I want to -- so symptoms specifically, Andrew, as a reminder, we've said that they're through-cycle EBITDA capability on an annual basis but it's through cycle. So we're not making a determination where the market is at this point in time is between $475 million and $525 million.
當然可以,安德魯。你一提到稅收,巴里和馬克就都把目光移開了。不,我想——所以具體來說,安德魯,提醒一下,我們已經說過,它們是年度週期性 EBITDA 能力,但它是週期性的。因此,我們目前無法確定市場規模,目前市場規模在 4.75 億美元到 5.25 億美元之間。
And what I want to do is take a step back because I think there's a bigger picture item that we -- it would be helpful to discuss a little bit. And that's -- Mark mentioned and we've talked about in the past that in the last five years, the fixed asset investments in aluminum, in Sinton and in the floor flat-rolled coating lines has been over $5 billion, just about $5 billion. Associated with those three projects is about $1.4 billion of through-cycle EBITDA capability.
我想退後一步,因為我認為我們有必要討論一個更宏觀的問題。正如馬克所提到的,我們過去也討論過,在過去的五年裡,辛頓鋁業和地板式扁軋塗層生產線的固定資產投資已經超過 50 億美元,差不多 50 億美元。與這三個項目相關的周期性 EBITDA 能力約為 14 億美元。
And we really haven't been able to utilize that up until this point. And so as we think about 2026, and we think about where the facilities will be from a maturity standpoint, including the ramping of aluminum. Of that incremental additional earnings power we think that we should have the ability to access on a through-cycle basis.
而在此之前,我們一直未能充分利用這一點。因此,當我們展望 2026 年,並從成熟度的角度考慮設施將位於何處時,包括鋁的產能提升。我們認為,我們應該有能力在整個經濟週期中獲得這部分新增的獲利能力。
So again, we're not making a determination of what that market will be like. But if it were through cycle, we really think we would have the ability to access it somewhere at least no less than 60% to 65% of that number. So there's a lot of earnings potential that people may not understand is incremental structurally to Steel Dynamics because of the investments we've made over the last five years.
所以,我們再次聲明,我們不會去預測那個市場會是什麼樣子。但如果是透過週期性的方式,我們認為我們至少能夠獲得其中 60% 到 65% 的份額。因此,由於我們在過去五年所進行的投資,Steel Dynamics 的獲利潛力很大,但人們可能不了解,這種潛力在結構上是逐步增加的。
Andrew Jones - Analyst
Andrew Jones - Analyst
Yes. No, that's why I ask (technical difficulty) I guess, I'm just wondering what the annualized contribution was in the third quarter, and therefore, what's the delta of Sinton specifically going forward?
是的。不,所以我才問(技術難題),我只是想知道第三季的年度貢獻是多少,因此,辛頓未來的具體變化是多少?
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
So we won't give that specific information. Suffice to say, Sinton was EBITDA positive, but not to the magnitude of that through cycle number. And then you said you had a tax question?
所以我們就不透露具體資訊了。簡而言之,Sinton 實現了 EBITDA 為正,但其規模遠不及週期數。然後你說你有稅務問題?
Andrew Jones - Analyst
Andrew Jones - Analyst
Yes. No, it's about the deferred tax movement on the cash flow, which boost to free cash this quarter. Just wondering if you could explain the origin about and how you're -- what the moving parts are in the coming quarters with regard to tax? Because I guess you've got a few things, obviously, you flagged this $250 million impact the Vale project and you've also -- I mean, there's obviously this big beautiful bill, accelerate depreciation stuff going on.
是的。不,這是關於遞延所得稅對現金流的影響,這將增加本季的自由現金流。我想請您解釋一下稅收方面的來龍去脈,以及您接下來幾季在稅收方面有哪些變化?因為我想你肯定注意到了一些事情,很明顯,你提到了淡水河谷計畫受到的 2.5 億美元的影響,而且——我的意思是,顯然還有一項龐大的法案,加速折舊之類的事情正在進行中。
I mean can you just give us an idea of how we should think about like effective tax rates and the actual equivalent of the actual cash tax profile in the coming quarters?
我的意思是,您能否告訴我們在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們應該如何考慮有效稅率以及實際現金稅狀況?
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Yes, certainly. So it was a big boost to the third quarter because that's when we were able to adjust for the tax bill changes which included additional research and development benefits as well as most importantly, the acceleration and depreciation as our aluminum assets are getting placed into operations, so that benefit of $147 million you're referring to.
當然可以。因此,這對第三季來說是一個很大的推動,因為那時我們能夠調整稅收法案的變化,其中包括額外的研發收益,以及最重要的是,隨著我們的鋁資產投入運營而加速折舊,這就是您提到的 1.47 億美元的收益。
Most of that was in the third quarter. You won't see that magnitude of increase in the fourth quarter. The way you should model cash taxes for 2025 is probably at a rate of about 8% to 9%. And then for 2026, I would model cash taxes closer to 15% to 16%. And the effective rate, probably closer to 23%.
大部分發生在第三季。第四季不會有如此大幅度的成長。2025 年現金稅的模型稅率可能在 8% 到 9% 左右。然後對於 2026 年,我預計現金稅率將接近 15% 至 16%。而實際有效率可能接近 23%。
Operator
Operator
Mike Harris, Goldman Sachs.
麥克哈里斯,高盛集團。
Mike Harris - Analyst
Mike Harris - Analyst
Yes. As we look at you consuming more biocarbon material to lower your carbon footprint. How should we think about what that could potentially do to your cost structure?
是的。我們看到您正在消耗更多的生物碳材料來降低您的碳足跡。我們應該如何考慮這可能會對您的成本結構產生哪些影響?
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
It's a good question, Mike. So from a cost structure perspective, it really probably won't have a material impact for you to be able to observe from the outside in. It is a joint venture, so we are transacting as we would at a market price to our steel mills. The joint ventures with Amium who has the IP associated with it. But what it does offer is an opportunity for us to offer an even lower carbon product.
問得好,麥克。因此,從成本結構的角度來看,從外部觀察,它可能不會對你產生實質的影響。這是合資企業,所以我們是按照市場價格向我們的鋼鐵廠進行交易的。與擁有相關智慧財產權的Amium公司成立合資企業。但這確實為我們提供了一個機會,讓我們能夠提供碳排放量較低的產品。
And we do believe we're already seeing some customers that are providing premiums, not something that we're talking about at this point more broadly in specifics, but we think it will open the door for even more opportunity on market share, specifically in OEMs, specifically more in the flat rolled side of the business. So there's a lot more we'll talk about as it relates to biocarbon in the future.
我們相信,我們已經看到一些客戶在提供溢價,雖然目前我們還沒有更廣泛地討論具體細節,但我們認為這將為市場份額帶來更多機會,尤其是在原始設備製造商 (OEM) 領域,尤其是在扁平軋製業務方面。所以未來我們還會討論更多關於生物碳的話題。
They should be operating continuously here starting in November. So it will take a minute before we're supplying as much into the steel mills as we'd like. But you shouldn't see a dramatic impact on the cost side at this point.
他們應該從11月開始在這裡持續運作。因此,我們需要一段時間才能達到我們向鋼鐵廠供應的預期數量。但目前來看,成本方面應該不會受到太大影響。
Mike Harris - Analyst
Mike Harris - Analyst
Okay. That's very helpful. And then just one last one, if I could. Of the record shipments you saw in the third quarter, were there any material onetime sales included in that?
好的。那很有幫助。如果可以的話,再補充最後一個問題。第三季創紀錄的出貨量中,是否包含任何一次性大額銷售額?
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
No. So it was just ramping up of Sinton and then we had some record shipments at a couple of them under of our flat-rolled facilities as well as really a lot of strength in demand, as Mark pointed out, in the structural arena.
不。所以,辛頓工廠的產能正在提升,正如馬克所指出的那樣,我們的幾家扁軋工廠的出貨量也創下了紀錄,結構領域的需求也非常強勁。
Operator
Operator
Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.
比爾彼得森,摩根大通。
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Bill Peterson - Analyst
I wanted to talk about the steel mill shipments in the fourth quarter. You called out the 85,000 planned maintenance. But I guess is there anything else that we should be taking under consideration for example, other things seasonal trends or also take into account imports, which seem to be at a very low level or maybe potentially abate in further trying to get a sense of how to think about shipments relative to maybe the last five years of flat to down 5%.
我想談談第四季鋼鐵廠的出貨量。你提到了那85000項計畫維護。但我想,我們是否還應該考慮其他因素,例如季節性趨勢,或者還要考慮進口情況,進口量似乎處於非常低的水平,或者可能會進一步減少,以便更好地了解相對於過去五年持平或下降 5% 的出貨量,應該如何看待出貨量。
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary
You guys are so crafty. You always try to come at it from a different angle. And that's a complement, Bill. For the fourth quarter, we just wanted to call out the maintenance because generally, we don't have all the maintenance same quarter as we are this time. So we felt like it was impactful enough to call out.
你們真是太有創意了。你總是試著從不同的角度看待問題。比爾,這是在誇獎你。對於第四季度,我們只想特別說明維護工作,因為通常情況下,我們不會像這次一樣把所有維護工作集中在一個季度進行。所以我們覺得這件事影響夠大,值得公開討論。
But we do still believe there's going to be seasonality, whether it's the same as it's been in the last five years. I can't really comment to that. But you will see seasonality in the volumes in addition to what you're seeing from a maintenance perspective. Barry, Mark, do you have anything to add?
但我們仍然相信會有季節性,無論它是否與過去五年的情況相同。我對此不予置評。除了維護方面的變化之外,您還會發現銷售量也存在季節性變化。巴里、馬克,你們還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
The outages are just our regular attempt to keep our assets performing at the absolute tiptop condition. We play out long in advance. And this is strange that we have all the mills taking some time in the fourth quarter but all are great projects that continue to make our shops, the safest in the industry and the most efficient possible.
這些停機維護只是我們為確保資產始終處於最佳運作狀態而採取的常規措施。我們提前很久就制定好了計劃。奇怪的是,我們所有的工廠都在第四季度暫停了一些工作,但所有這些項目都很棒,它們將繼續使我們的工廠成為業內最安全、最高效的工廠。
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Okay. And I'm not sure if this is crafty or not, but I think about your overall strategy in auto. I know you're an emerging player in aluminum, but thinking about your steel, is this -- is this a market where you're looking to gain share?
好的。我不確定這算不算狡猾,但我認為你對汽車產業的整體策略有一定了解。我知道你們是鋁業的新興企業,但就鋼鐵業而言,這是你們想要爭取市場份額的市場嗎?
And if so, how should we think of that unfolding in the coming years? Or is really this business going to kind of grow with your existing partners, assuming they grow their US footprint in order to avoid tariffs.
如果真是如此,我們該如何看待未來幾年的發展呢?或者,假設現有合作夥伴為了規避關稅而擴大在美國的業務規模,那麼這項業務真的會隨著他們而成長嗎?
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer
We are really excited about the automotive business that we're doing. I think the opportunity for our customers to purchase a low carbon content product, really enhance our relationship early. And since starting to do business with us, our teams operate very efficiently, very smoothly and without much bureaucracy.
我們對我們正在從事的汽車業務感到非常興奮。我認為,讓我們的客戶有機會購買低碳產品,能夠真正促進我們與客戶關係的早期發展。自從開始與我們合作以來,我們的團隊運作非常有效率、非常順暢,而且沒有太多官僚主義。
So I believe our teams have a great position relationship -- they've been working really hard this past year with all the tariff changes to allow us to continue to do what we do best for the automotive industry. We do see it growing when we built in.
所以我相信我們的團隊關係非常融洽——在過去一年裡,他們一直在努力應對各種關稅變化,使我們能夠繼續為汽車行業做我們最擅長的事情。我們確實看到,當我們進行建設時,它的發展速度很快。
That was part of the design to be close to the Mexican automotive base with some high-value steel products. The facility was designed with that in mind. So as that ramps up and we have OEM packages into all of our customers from that facility. We anticipate the growth organically happening.
這是設計的一部分,目的是靠近墨西哥汽車產業基地,生產一些高價值的鋼鐵產品。該設施的設計正是考慮到這一點。隨著產能提升,我們將從該工廠向所有客戶提供 OEM 產品。我們預計成長將自然而然地發生。
We see it as good products. And we're appreciative that the customer base recognizes that. We received an outstanding award from Volkswagen in the second quarter, which was really surprised and we were absolutely thankful to receive that, but it really highlights our position. We have a very low carbon footprint.
我們認為這是好產品。我們很欣慰客戶群能夠認同這一點。第二季度,我們獲得了大眾汽車頒發的傑出獎項,這讓我們感到非常意外,我們也對此表示由衷的感謝,這確實凸顯了我們的地位。我們的碳足跡非常低。
We have a very engaging position going forward that doesn't change our cost structure. We've engaged on renewable energy and nuclear energy across our flat-rolled platforms. So we are ideally situated to grow our business there. And we're going to grow it where it makes sense and listen to our customers and have great discussions with them.
我們未來的發展方向非常具有吸引力,而且不會改變我們的成本結構。我們已在扁平軋製平台上進行再生能源和核能專案。因此,我們擁有得天獨厚的地理位置,可以在那裡發展業務。我們會在適當的地方發展壯大,傾聽客戶的意見,並與他們進行深入的交流。
Operator
Operator
John Tumazos, Independent Research.
John Tumazos,獨立研究員。
John Tumazos - Analyst
John Tumazos - Analyst
Could you explain the $27 drop in scrap costs given that the steel business is strong, Calvert, Alabama, starts up a new melt shop right now, et cetera. Is it from lower iron ore and coal prices and China selling lots of swabs and other steel, et cetera?
鑑於鋼鐵業情況良好,阿拉巴馬州卡爾弗特市正在新建一家熔煉廠等等,你能解釋一下廢鋼價格為何下降了 27 美元嗎?是因為鐵礦石和煤炭價格下跌,以及中國大量出售棉花棒和其他鋼鐵產品等等嗎?
And then second, would a reasonable guess for aluminum be $2.40 to $2.50 a pound sales realization with the big Midwest premium and maybe $40 a production cost with 93 sets UBCs?
其次,考慮到中西部地區的高溢價,鋁的合理售價估計為每磅 2.40 至 2.50 美元,而生產成本可能為每磅 40 美元,93 套 UBC 的產量為 93 套?
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, taking number one, the scrap dropping off $27. It -- obviously, John, as you know, scrap is the -- in my mind, the most transparent fluid commodity out there, and it's just supply and demand. The -- and honestly, in '20, whether it's the $27 in the broad scheme of things is not it's more noise than anything else.
好吧,先說第一名,廢品掉落 27 美元。顯然,約翰,如你所知,廢棄物在我看來是最透明的流動性商品,它只是供需關係。說實話,在 2020 年,從大局來看,27 美元與其說是錢,不如說是噪音。
Directionally, I think it's important, but it's more noise. In the old days, $10, $15, $20 move would be monumental today, it's not too much. But again, in the dynamics of scrapped with the segregation technologies out there today, the Shred 1 and all these things, there's greater optionality of flow.
從方向性來看,我認為這很重要,但這更多的是噪音。在過去,10美元、15美元、20美元的搬遷是巨大的變動,而現在這不算什麼。但話說回來,在如今的廢棄物處理動態中,隨著 Shred 1 等各種分離技術的出現,流程的選擇餘地更大了。
And I think that's just bearing fruit. And we've always said, I always suggested that we don't have a major concern that others have had over the years that, oh, my goodness, flat roll is going to continue to grow and scrap is going to be a problem.
我認為這正在結出碩果。我一直都說,我也一直認為,我們並不像其他人多年來所擔心的那樣,存在著“哦,天哪,扁卷材將繼續增長,廢料會成為一個問題”這樣的重大擔憂。
In fact, if you look at a lot of the new projects coming online, most of them anyway are having some CRI type virgin iron associated with them. So even though the production capability of the domestic industry is increasing, it's not a -- the scrap consumption is not at that same rate.
事實上,如果你看看很多新上線的項目,你會發現它們大多數都與一些 CRI 型原生鐵有關。因此,儘管國內工業的生產能力正在提高,但廢料消耗量並沒有以同樣的速度成長。
So we still remain confident that scrap will remain in reasonable -- at a reasonable level and that going forward, spreads will remain very high, if not increase, to be honest, going forward. Relative to your question on aluminum, I will refrain. To be honest, it's a little bit more complicated as you can appreciate also.
因此,我們仍然相信廢鋼價格將保持在合理的水平,坦白說,未來價差將保持很高,甚至可能繼續上漲。關於你提出的鋁的問題,我將不予置評。說實話,情況要複雜一些,你也能體會。
It depends on which grade -- is it automotive? Is it can sheet? Is it industrial? It is all over the map. Suffice it to say, we do believe that our returns that we've advertised are more than achievable.
這取決於是什麼等級──是汽車級嗎?是罐頭紙嗎?它是工業用途嗎?到處都是。總之,我們相信我們所宣傳的回報完全可以實現。
John Tumazos - Analyst
John Tumazos - Analyst
I'm glad to be a shareholder.
我很榮幸能成為股東。
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
John, we appreciate you being a shareholder all those years and challenging us for sure. And just to finish up, I would like to thank all shareholders that support us that are on the call. As I asked to joke to them, if you're not a shareholder, you should be because we will endeavor to perform and use your dollars just as though they were our dollars.
約翰,我們非常感謝你多年來作為股東的支持,也感謝你一直以來對我們的挑戰。最後,我要感謝所有參加電話會議並支持我們的股東。我開玩笑地問他們,如果你還不是股東,那你應該成為股東,因為我們將努力像對待自己的錢一樣對待和使用你們的每一分錢。
A couple of just point. I've had customers that are on the line, thank you. Thank you for your support. Particularly, I would like to welcome any ally customers that are on the line. It's been a pleasure to engage with you and just in the last three, four, five weeks of market chaos, in the space. It really has been refreshing for us and hopefully refreshing to you because we do bring a different approach from a sort of customer relationship standpoint. We truly will partner with you going forward.
幾個要點。我接到了一些客戶的電話,謝謝。感謝您的支持。尤其要歡迎所有線上的盟友客戶。很高興能與您交流,尤其是在過去三、四、五週的市場動盪中。這對我們來說確實是一種耳目一新的體驗,希望對你們來說也是如此,因為我們從客戶關係的角度帶來了不同的方法。我們真心希望未來能與您攜手合作。
And lastly, any SDI folks on the call, absolutely hats off to you. You do a phenomenal job each and every day, you do make a difference. You are the best deal metals team in -- on the planet. Just make sure you keep safe and keep each other safe.
最後,所有參加電話會議的 SDI 的朋友們,我都由衷地向你們致敬。你每天都做得非常出色,你確實發揮了重要作用。你們是全球最棒的金屬交易團隊。請務必注意自身安全,並互相保護。
Thank you all.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation, and have a great and safe day.
謝謝。女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,祝您有美好而安全的一天。