Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to the Steel Dynamics second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised this call is being recorded today, July 22, 2025, and your participation implies consent to our recording this call. (Operator Instructions)

    大家好,歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,本次通話將於今天(2025 年 7 月 22 日)進行錄音,您的參與即表示同意我們錄音本次通話。(操作員指示)

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Lipchitz, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 David Lipchitz。請繼續。

  • David Lipschitz - Investor Relations Director

    David Lipschitz - Investor Relations Director

  • Thank you, Holly. Good morning and welcome to Steel Dynamics second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today.

    謝謝你,霍莉。早安,歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音,並將於今天晚些時候在我們的網站上重播。

  • Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics; Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually.

    主持今天電話會議的是 Steel Dynamics 董事長兼執行長 Mark Millett、執行副總裁兼財務長 Theresa Wagler 和總裁兼營運長 Barry Schneider。我們高階領導團隊的其他成員也分別參加了電話會議。

  • Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward-looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate, or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently.

    今天的某些聲明僅代表截至目前的觀點,可能具有前瞻性和預測性,通常以相信、期望、預期或類似含義的詞語開頭。如果實際結果有所不同,它們將受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的保護。

  • Such statements involve risk and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of estimates and assumptions in connection with the anticipated project returns. And our Steel, Metals Recycling, and Fabrication businesses, as well as the general business and economic conditions. Examples of these are described in a related press release, as well as in our annual filed SEC Form 10-K under the headings, Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors, found on the internet at www.sec.gov and, if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10-Q.

    此類聲明涉及與整合或啟動新資產、鋁業、與預期專案回報相關的估計和假設的使用有關的風險和不確定性。以及我們的鋼鐵、金屬回收和製造業務,以及一般的商業和經濟狀況。相關新聞稿中以及我們每年提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的 10-K 表格(標題為「前瞻性聲明和風險因素」)中均描述了這些範例,這些表格可在互聯網上 www.sec.gov 上找到,如果適用,還可在任何後續的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 10-Q 表格中找到。

  • You'll also find any reference non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled, Steel Dynamics Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results.

    您還會在昨天發布的題為《Steel Dynamics 報告 2025 年第二季度業績》的新聞稿中找到與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標相協調的任何參考非 GAAP 財務指標。

  • And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

    現在我很高興將電話轉給馬克。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Super. Thank you, David. And good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us on our second quarter of 2025 earnings call.

    極好的。謝謝你,大衛。大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • As evident in our release, our teams achieved a solid second quarter performance. The most fulfilling to me was the team's overall safety performance. They achieved an all-time low quarterly recordable and lost time injury rates.

    從我們的發布中可以看出,我們的團隊在第二季度取得了穩健的表現。最讓我有成就感的是團隊整體的安全表現。他們實現了季度可記錄工傷率和誤工工傷率的歷史最低水準。

  • In fact, 80% of our over 100 locations didn't even have a single recordable injury. It's a supreme achievement by the team. My sincere thanks to everyone involved.

    事實上,在我們 100 多個門市中,80% 的門市甚至沒有發生過一起可記錄的傷害事件。這是該團隊的最高成就。我向所有參與的人表示誠摯的感謝。

  • Although experiencing some challenges in the second quarter relating to our vendor oxygen supply that inhibited steel production, the Sinton team continued their progress. They increased sequential earnings, achieving pre-tax break even and another positive EBITDA quarter. We expect a steep acceleration of profitability for the remainder of this year and next.

    儘管第二季我們的供應商氧氣供應遇到了一些挑戰,阻礙了鋼鐵生產,但 Sinton 團隊仍在繼續進步。他們連續增加了收益,實現了稅前收支平衡,並再次實現了正 EBITDA 季度盈利。我們預計今年剩餘時間和明年的獲利能力將大幅提升。

  • We believe we have reached an earnings inflection point for Steel Fabrication with expectations for increased profitability in the third quarter. We achieved record quarterly Metals Recycling shipments.

    我們相信我們已經達到了鋼鐵製造業務的獲利拐點,預計第三季獲利能力將有所提高。我們實現了季度金屬回收出貨量創紀錄。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $533 million. Biocarbon is in the midst of commissioning with expectations for product shipments to begin later in the third quarter.

    調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.33 億美元。Biocarbon 目前正在調試中,預計產品將於第三季稍後開始出貨。

  • We were awarded the Volkswagen Global Group Award for Sustainability. It's testament to our low carbon steel program and its associated impact on us becoming the supplier of choice for auto groups expanding in the US.

    我們榮獲大眾汽車全球集團永續發展獎。這證明了我們的低碳鋼計劃及其對我們成為在美國擴張的汽車集團的首選供應商的影響。

  • And Aluminum is here. We shipped our first commercial quality aluminum flat roll coils on June 16. So congratulations to absolutely everyone involved there. Phenomenal progress.

    鋁就在這裡。我們於 6 月 16 日運送了第一批商業品質鋁平捲。因此,我向所有參與的人表示祝賀。驚人的進步。

  • So we are successfully executing on many fronts. I'm proud of the entire Steel Dynamics team. There's no doubt they are the foundation of our company and remain our first and foremost priority.

    因此,我們在許多方面都取得了成功。我為整個 Steel Dynamics 團隊感到自豪。毫無疑問,他們是我們的公司的基礎,並且仍然是我們的首要任務。

  • As such, we are focused on providing the very best for their health and safety. We're building a world-class safety culture.

    因此,我們致力於為他們的健康和安全提供最好的保障。我們正在建立世界一流的安全文化。

  • Our team's dedication to our Take Control of Safety program is absolutely extraordinary and resulted in the record metrics this quarter. Continually inspired by the commitment of our team members, have to one another.

    我們團隊對「掌控安全」計畫的奉獻精神絕對是非凡的,並在本季度取得了創紀錄的指標。我們團隊成員彼此的承諾不斷激勵著我們。

  • They consider themselves family and challenge the status quo each and every day. But that said, there will always be more to do as we strive for a zero-incident environment.

    他們視彼此為家人,每天都在挑戰現狀。但話雖如此,在我們努力實現零事故環境的過程中,總是會有更多的工作要做。

  • So with that introduction, Theresa, some details on the quarter?

    那麼,Theresa,透過這樣的介紹,您能介紹一下本季的一些細節嗎?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us.

    謝謝你,馬克。大家早安。感謝您的加入。

  • Our second-quarter 2025 net income was $299 million or $2.01 per diluted share, which with adjusted EBITDA, $533 million. Second-quarter 2025 revenue of $4.6 billion was above sequential first quarter results due to higher realize steel pricing across the platform.

    我們2025年第二季的淨利為2.99億美元,即每股攤薄收益2.01美元,調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤(EBITDA)為5.33億美元。 2025年第二季度由於整個平台的鋼材價格上漲,本季營收為 46 億美元,高於第一季的上一季業績。

  • Our second quarter operating income of $383 million was 39% higher than the first quarter results, driven by steel metal spread expansion, as pricing increased more than scrap raw material costs. As we discussed our business this morning, we continue to focus and execute on our transformational growth initiatives.

    我們第二季的營業收入為 3.83 億美元,比第一季高出 39%,這得益於鋼鐵金屬價差擴大,因為價格漲幅超過了廢料原料成本。正如我們今天早上討論業務時一樣,我們將繼續關注並執行我們的轉型成長計劃。

  • Our Steel Operations generated operating income of $382 million in the second quarter, over 65% higher sequentially due to average realized pricing increasing $136 to $1,134 per ton, while total shipments were modestly lowered due to a decline in flat rolled shipments.

    我們的鋼鐵業務在第二季度實現了 3.82 億美元的營業收入,比上一季度增長了 65% 以上,原因是平均實現價格上漲 136 美元至每噸 1,134 美元,而由於扁平軋材出貨量下降,總出貨量略有下降。

  • Earnings from the Steel platform were reduced in the second quarter by approximately $32 million due to a non-cash write-off of consumable assets. They were also negatively impacted as sentence shipments were reduced by approximately 55,000 tons due to a reduced vendors supply of oxygen, which has since been restored.

    由於消耗性資產的非現金註銷,第二季鋼鐵平台的收益減少了約 3,200 萬美元。由於供應商的氧氣供應減少(現已恢復),判決發貨量減少了約 55,000 噸,這也對他們產生了負面影響。

  • For those -- for modeling purposes for shipments in the second quarter, hot rolled shipments were 930,000 tons, cold rolled shipments were 114,000 tons, and finally coated shipments were 1,387,000 tons.

    為了對第二季度的出貨量進行建模,熱軋出貨量為 930,000 噸,冷軋出貨量為 114,000 噸,最終塗層出貨量為 1,387,000 噸。

  • For the second quarter, operating income for our Metal Recycling Operations was $21 million or $4 million lower than sequential first quarter results due to lower realized fares pricing, as primes were down about $50 per ton and other grades $80 per ton. The price differential more than offset the team's record shipments.

    第二季度,我們的金屬回收業務的營業收入為 2,100 萬美元,比第一季的連續業績低 400 萬美元,原因是實際票價較低,因為優質金屬每噸下跌約 50 美元,其他等級金屬每噸下跌 80 美元。價格差異遠遠超過了該球隊創紀錄的出貨量。

  • We are already the largest North American metals recycler for ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and we're growing in support of our increased steel capacity and aluminum flat roll operations through new and expanded supplier relationships and through the use of innovative new separation technologies. Our Metals Recycling platform is a significant competitive advantage for our Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Operations.

    我們已經是北美最大的黑色金屬和有色金屬回收商,我們正在透過新的和擴大的供應商關係以及使用創新的新型分離技術來支持我們不斷增長的鋼鐵產能和鋁扁捲業務。我們的金屬回收平台對於我們的鋼鐵、鋁和銅業務來說是一個顯著的競爭優勢。

  • Our Steel Fabrication team achieved operating income of $93 million in the second quarter, lower than first quarter results as realized pricing declined modestly and steel substrate cost increased compressing margins. Federal programs, manufacturing growth, and onshoring are expected to support domestic fixed asset investment and related flat and long product steel and steel joist and debt consumption in the coming years.

    我們的鋼鐵製造團隊在第二季度實現了 9,300 萬美元的營業收入,低於第一季的業績,因為實際價格小幅下降,而鋼基板成本增加壓縮了利潤率。預計未來幾年聯邦計畫、製造業成長和在岸化將支持國內固定資產投資以及相關的扁平材和長材、鋼托樑和債務消費。

  • As for our Aluminum Operations, I also want to send a huge congratulations to the team on their first shipment. It truly is an exceptional accomplishment.

    至於我們的鋁業務,我也想向團隊首次出貨表示熱烈祝賀。這確實是一項非凡的成就。

  • Operating losses from the Aluminum Operations totaled $69 million in the first half of 2025. We estimate comparative losses to be in the range of $40 million for the third quarter of 2025, which is consistent with second quarter results, then improving to between $15 million and $20 million for the fourth quarter as we complete commissioning, commence product certifications, and ramp production. Based on current dynamics, we continue to believe we will achieve monthly EBITDA positive results before the end of 2025.

    2025 年上半年鋁業業務的營運虧損總計 6,900 萬美元。我們估計,2025 年第三季的比較損失將在 4,000 萬美元左右,與第二季的結果一致,然後隨著我們完成調試、開始產品認證和提高產量,第四季度的比較損失將改善至 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元之間。根據目前的動態,我們仍然相信我們將在 2025 年底之前實現月度 EBITDA 正成長。

  • Additionally, in connection with startup, we will stop capitalizing interest expense associated with the Aluminum project. As such, we estimate interest expense to increase to about $30 million in the coming third quarter and to the full $45 million in the fourth quarter.

    此外,在啟動過程中,我們將停止將與鋁項目相關的利息費用資本化。因此,我們預計第三季利息支出將增至約 3,000 萬美元,第四季將增至 4,500 萬美元。

  • Related to cash flow, during the second quarter of 2025, we generated cash flow from operations of $302 million. Working capital grew $131 million in the quarter as we grew inventories for our new Aluminum investments.

    關於現金流,2025 年第二季度,我們產生的營運現金流為 3.02 億美元。由於我們增加了新鋁投資的庫存,本季營運資本增加了 1.31 億美元。

  • In June, we repaid our 2.4% $400 million senior notes that matured. We ended the quarter with liquidity of $1.9 billion comprised of cash and short-term investments of $744 million and are fully available and secured revolver. For the second half of 2025, we believe capital investments will be in the range of $400 million with the majority related to the completion of our Aluminum and biocarbon growth investments.

    6 月份,我們償還了到期的 2.4% 4 億美元優先票據。本季末,我們的流動資金為 19 億美元,包括現金和 7.44 億美元的短期投資,並且是完全可用且有擔保的循環信貸。到 2025 年下半年,我們預計資本投資將在 4 億美元左右,其中大部分與完成鋁和生物碳成長投資有關。

  • In February, we increased our quarterly cash dividend 9% to $0.50 per common share, continuing our positive dividend profile. We also repurchased $200 million of our common stock in the second quarter, representing over 1% of our outstanding shares.

    2 月份,我們將季度現金股利提高 9% 至每股 0.50 美元,延續了正面的股利狀況。我們也在第二季回購了價值 2 億美元的普通股,占我們流通股的 1% 以上。

  • At June 30, $1.2 billion remained authorized and available for share repurchases. These actions reflect the strength of our capital foundation and consistently strong cash flow generation capability and the continued optimism and confidence in our future. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high return strategic growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that's complemented with a variable share repurchase program, while we remain dedicated to preserving our investment grade credit designation.

    截至 6 月 30 日,仍有 12 億美元授權可用於股票回購。這些舉措反映了我們強大的資本基礎、持續強勁的現金流創造能力以及對未來的持續樂觀和信心。我們的資本配置策略優先考慮高回報策略成長,股東分配包括基本正股息,並輔以可變股票回購計劃,同時我們仍致力於維持我們的投資等級信用評等。

  • Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last five years from an annual average of $540 million to $3 billion excluding our large strategic Sinton and Aluminum investments. We've placed ourselves in a position of strength to have sustainable capital foundation that provides the opportunity for meaningful strategic growth and strong shareholder returns, while maintaining investment grade credit metrics. We're squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable optimized long-term value creation.

    過去五年來,我們的自由現金流狀況發生了根本性變化,從年均 5.4 億美元增加到 30 億美元(不包括我們對 Sinton 和 Aluminum 的大型戰略投資)。我們已將自己置於優勢地位,擁有可持續的資本基礎,為有意義的策略成長和強勁的股東回報提供機會,同時保持投資等級信用指標。我們正致力於持續、優化地創造長期價值。

  • In alignment with the 1.5-degree scenarios set forth in the Paris Agreement, we have an interim 2030 emissions intensity target, which represents a 15% reduction in our greenhouse gas intensity and a 2050 emissions intensity target. We announced during the second quarter that each of our company's steel mills achieved Global Steel Climate Council product certification.

    根據《巴黎協定》規定的1.5度情景,我們制定了2030年的中期排放強度目標,這意味著我們的溫室氣體強度將減少15%,並制定了2050年的排放強度目標。我們在第二季宣布,我們公司的每家鋼廠都獲得了全球鋼鐵氣候委員會的產品認證。

  • For our customers, this means greater transparency and confidence when sourcing lower embodied carbon steel products. The GSCC certification verifies emissions data through a certified science-based standard aligned with the Paris Agreement.

    對於我們的客戶來說,這意味著在採購低碳鋼產品時具有更高的透明度和信心。GSCC 認證透過符合《巴黎協定》的認證科學標準來驗證排放數據。

  • Decarbonization is a meaningful part of our long-term value creation strategy, and we're dedicated to our people, our communities, and our environment. We're committing to operating our business with the highest integrity.

    脫碳是我們長期價值創造策略的重要組成部分,我們致力於服務我們的人民、我們的社區和我們的環境。我們致力於以最高的誠信經營我們的業務。

  • In that regard, we grow in our excitement concerning our first biocarbon production facility, as it transitions from construction to commissioning with expectations, as Mark mentioned, for production to begin in the coming months. We believe our first facility could decrease our steel scope one greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 35%, and more importantly, provide unique value and supply chain opportunities for many of our OEM flat rolled steel customers.

    在這方面,我們對我們的第一個生物碳生產設施越來越感到興奮,因為它正從建設階段過渡到調試階段,正如馬克所提到的,我們期望它能在未來幾個月內開始生產。我們相信,我們的第一個工廠可以將鋼鐵範圍一溫室氣體排放量減少多達 35%,更重要的是,為我們的許多 OEM 扁鋼客戶提供獨特的價值和供應鏈機會。

  • We uniquely have an actionable path that is more manageable and we believe considerably less expensive than may lay ahead for many of our industry peers. Our carbon reduction strategy is an ongoing journey, and we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference. Thank you.

    我們擁有獨特的可行路徑,更易於管理,我們相信,與許多業內同行相比,我們的成本要低得多。我們的碳減排策略是一個持續的過程,我們正朝著正面的方向前進。謝謝。

  • Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Thank you, Theresa. Our Steel Fabrication Operations achieved a solid performance in the second quarter in a somewhat challenging environment, as steel input costs increased and customer hesitancy prevented any meaningful increase in volume.

    謝謝你,特蕾莎。由於鋼材投入成本增加以及客戶的猶豫不決阻礙了產量有任何有意義的成長,我們的鋼鐵製造業務在第二季度取得了穩健的業績,儘管環境有些充滿挑戰。

  • However, order activity remains solid with the order backlog increasing by 15% since the beginning of the year and now extending into 2026. Pricing for steel joist and deck bookings has remained relatively stable through the first half of the year.

    然而,訂單活動仍保持強勁,訂單積壓自年初以來增加了 15%,目前已延續至 2026 年。今年上半年,鋼製托樑和甲板的預訂價格保持相對穩定。

  • Based on the current market environment, we believe we have reached an inflection point in profitability from our fabrication operations and expect third quarter earnings to improve sequentially. We continue to have high expectations for the business based on continued onshoring of manufacturing, recently announced significant privately funded manufacturing projects, and public funding for infrastructure and other fixed asset investment programs. The long-term uplift from this backdrop could be considerable for all of our platforms.

    根據當前的市場環境,我們認為我們的製造業務盈利能力已經達到一個拐點,預計第三季的盈利將環比提高。基於製造業持續在岸化、最近宣布的重大私人資助製造業項目以及基礎設施和其他固定資產投資計劃的公共資金,我們繼續對業務抱有很高的期望。這種背景將為我們所有的平台帶來長期的顯著提升。

  • Our Steel Fabrication platform provides meaningful volume support for our Steel Operations, critical and softer demand environments, allowing for higher through-cycle steel utilization compared to our peers. It also helps mitigate the impact of lower steel prices.

    我們的鋼鐵製造平台為我們的鋼鐵業務、關鍵和較弱的需求環境提供了有意義的批量支持,與同行相比,實現了更高的全週期鋼鐵利用率。這也有助於減輕鋼鐵價格下跌的影響。

  • Earnings from our Metals Recycling Operation were modestly low in the second quarter, despite record shipments due to lower realize fair scrap prices, as scrap flows were steady and exports declined. We believe fair scrap prices have stabilized and are likely to remain relatively steady throughout the rest of the year, aside from the typical seasonal fluctuations. Additionally, the team continues to expand its access to recycled aluminum in preparation for the ramp up of our aluminum flat rolled operations.

    由於廢料流量穩定且出口量下降,導致第二季度金屬回收業務的出貨量創歷史新高,但盈利仍然較低,原因是廢料流通量穩定且出口量下降,導致公平廢料價格下降。我們認為,公平廢料價格已經穩定,除了典型的季節性波動外,在今年剩餘時間內可能保持相對穩定。此外,該團隊繼續擴大其回收鋁的管道,為擴大我們的鋁壓延業務做好準備。

  • The North American geographic footprint of our Metals Recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel mills and for our scrap generating customers. Our Metals Recycling team is also partnering more closely with both our Steel and Aluminum teams to expand scrap separation capabilities to advanced process and technology solutions.

    我們的金屬回收平台遍佈北美,為我們的鋼廠和廢料產生客戶提供了戰略競爭優勢。我們的金屬回收團隊也與鋼鐵和鋁團隊更緊密地合作,將廢料分離能力擴展到先進的製程和技術解決方案。

  • This collaboration helps mitigate supply risk by making more grades of ferrous and non-ferrous scrap usable for our steel and aluminum production. Additionally, it positions us to significantly increase the recycled content in our aluminum flat rolled products, unlocking enhanced earnings opportunities.

    此次合作使我們的鋼鐵和鋁生產能夠使用更多等級的黑色和有色廢料,有助於降低供應風險。此外,它使我們能夠大幅增加鋁壓延產品中的再生成分,從而釋放出更大的獲利機會。

  • The Steel team delivered a solid quarter with shipments of 3.3 million tons. In the second quarter of 2025, the domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 77%, while our steel mills operated at a notably higher rate of 85%.

    鋼鐵團隊本季表現穩健,出貨量達 330 萬噸。2025年第二季度,國內鋼鐵業的生產利用率預計為77%,而我國鋼廠的生產利用率明顯較高,達85%。

  • This consistently higher utilization reflects our value-added steel product diversification, differentiated customer supplied solutions, and strong support from our internal manufacturing businesses. Our elevated through-cycle utilization rate is a key competitive advantage, underpinning our growing cash generation capability.

    這種持續較高的利用率反映了我們增值的鋼鐵產品多樣化、差異化的客戶提供的解決方案以及我們內部製造業務的大力支持。我們提高的全週期利用率是一個關鍵的競爭優勢,支撐著我們不斷成長的現金創造能力。

  • Our realized steel pricing increased throughout our product portfolio in the second quarter. And just last week, long products saw additional price improvement. Overall, domestic Steel inventories remain lean from a historical basis. However, coded flat roll steel volume and pricing compressed during the quarter due to an inventory overhang related to imports that were received just ahead of the final ruling related to the associated industry trade case.

    我們第二季所有產品組合的實際鋼材價格均上漲。就在上週,長材價格進一步上漲。整體來看,從歷史來看,國內鋼材庫存依然偏低。然而,由於在相關產業貿易案最終裁決之前收到的進口庫存過剩,本季編碼扁鋼捲的數量和價格受到壓縮。

  • Last fall, we and other industry participants initiated a trade case related to these products and have since received favorable preliminary countervailing and anti-dumping rulings. We anticipate final rulings to be determined before the end of September.

    去年秋天,我們和其他產業參與者發起了與這些產品相關的貿易案件,並獲得了有利的初步反補貼和反傾銷裁決。我們預計最終裁決將在九月底之前做出。

  • This uniquely positions us as we are the largest producer of non-automotive coded flat roll steel products in North America. Together with the announced Section 232 steel tariffs, these developments are expected to positively impact demand for lower carbon emission, US-produced steel.

    這使我們擁有獨特的優勢,成為北美最大的非汽車用扁平捲鋼產品生產商。加上已宣布的第 232 條鋼鐵關稅,這些發展預計將對美國生產的低碳排放鋼鐵的需求產生積極影響。

  • The underlying steel demand remains steady. However, customers continue to exercise caution in placing orders due to ongoing uncertainty related to trade policies and interest rates. That said, we believe steel prices have stabilized in the near term with potential for upward movement in the future.

    鋼鐵基礎需求保持穩定。然而,由於貿易政策和利率持續存在不確定性,客戶在下訂單時仍保持謹慎。儘管如此,我們認為鋼鐵價格短期內已經穩定下來,未來仍有上漲的潛力。

  • Our Sinton, Texas flat roll mill achieved higher earnings in the second quarter, despite operating a lower utilization rate of 71%, due primarily to lack of sufficient oxygen supply caused by a vendor. We believe this impact to our operations could be as much as 55,000 tons. Sufficient oxygen, as Theresa mentioned, has been restored, and the bill is operating very well.

    我們位於德州辛頓的平輥廠在第二季度實現了更高的收益,儘管其營運利用率較低(僅 71%),這主要是由於供應商造成的氧氣供應不足。我們認為這對我們營運的影響可能高達 55,000 噸。正如 Theresa 提到的,充足的氧氣已經恢復,並且該法案運作得很好。

  • The team continues to make improvements in yield, cost reduction, and quality. They're also continuing towards additional product development to expand our current flat roll steel capabilities.

    該團隊在產量、成本降低和品質方面不斷取得進步。他們也將繼續進行其他產品開發,以擴大我們目前的扁鋼捲產能。

  • Meaningful progress is being made on API pipe grades, high strength grades, grade 100, 110, pressure vessel quality, and OEM qualification packages for our automotive customers. We are seeing increased shipments from Sinton's value-added coding lines, which are strengthening the facility's product mix and boosting its through-cycle earnings capabilities.

    我們在為汽車客戶提供 API 管道等級、高強度等級、100 級、110 級、壓力容器品質和 OEM 認證套件方面取得了重大進展。我們看到 Sinton 增值編碼線的出貨量不斷增加,這增強了工廠的產品組合併提高了其全週期獲利能力。

  • Regarding the steel market environment, North American automotive production estimates for 2025 were recently revised modestly downward, reflecting ongoing uncertainty related to trade discussions. Fortunately, our specific automotive customer base is not -- not only remained stable but have provided opportunities for growth.

    關於鋼鐵市場環境,北美2025年汽車產量預估最近被小幅下調,反映出與貿易談判相關的持續不確定性。幸運的是,我們的特定汽車客戶群不僅保持穩定,而且還提供了成長機會。

  • We have become a supplier of choice for many US-based, European, and Asian automotive producers due to our current and planned future superior carbon content capabilities. Additionally, numerous announcements have been made concerning its considerable volume of automotive production moving to the US from foreign locations in the coming years.

    由於我們目前和未來計劃的卓越碳含量能力,我們已成為許多美國、歐洲和亞洲汽車生產商的首選供應商。此外,還有多份公告稱,未來幾年,該公司將把大量汽車生產從國外轉移到美國。

  • Meanwhile, we continue to grow market share, both flat rolled and SBQ steels, within the sector. Non-residential construction remains stable, despite broader predictions of a potential slowdown. So far this year, construction sector employment and spending have been stable.

    同時,我們在該行業內的扁鋼和特薄板的市場份額繼續增長。儘管普遍預測非住宅建築業可能放緩,但仍保持穩定。今年迄今為止,建築業的就業和支出一直保持穩定。

  • Pricing for most long products has generally improved, supported by strong backlogs. Looking ahead, ongoing onshoring activities recently announced domestic manufacturing projects, and continued infrastructure spending are expected to further support fixed asset investment in construction-related demand.

    受大量積壓訂單的支撐,大多數長材產品的價格普遍有所改善。展望未來,正在進行的在岸活動、最近宣布的國內製造業項目以及持續的基礎設施支出預計將進一步支持與建築相關的固定資產投資需求。

  • In the energy sector, oil and gas activity remains steady, with encouraging signs of increased demand for both flat rolled and SBQ products heading into the third quarter. Additionally, solar is particularly strong currently, as the producers attempt to benefit from expiring incentives. Overall, we remain extremely optimistic concerning steel demand and pricing dynamics for the domestic producers in the coming years based on the expected demand from new manufacturing and US-produced steel content requirements.

    在能源領域,石油和天然氣活動保持穩定,進入第三季度,扁平軋材和特薄板產品的需求均出現增加的令人鼓舞的跡象。此外,由於生產商試圖從即將到期的激勵措施中獲益,太陽能目前表現尤為強勁。整體而言,基於新製造業的預期需求和美國生產的鋼鐵含量要求,我們對未來幾年國內生產商的鋼鐵需求和定價動態仍然極為樂觀。

  • With that, I'll return us to Mark Millett.

    好了,現在請馬克·米利特發言。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Super. Thank you, Mr. Schneider. Appreciate that.

    極好的。謝謝您,施耐德先生。非常感謝。

  • As you've seen these past years, I believe it's more than evident that our performance-driven team-based culture, in combination with a proven, diversified, and value-added business model drives consistently superior financial metrics. This consistently strong performance continues to support our cash generation and growth investment strategies, allowing a balanced cash allocation strategy that has delivered high shareholder returns.

    正如大家在過去幾年中所看到的,我相信,我們以績效為導向的團隊文化,加上經過驗證的、多樣化的、增值的業務模式,可以持續帶來卓越的財務指標,這一點顯而易見。這種持續強勁的表現持續支持我們的現金創造和成長投資策略,從而實現平衡的現金分配策略,為股東帶來高回報。

  • Our disciplined investment approach continues to support a strong and growing through-cycle cash generation profile, while maintaining one of the highest return on invested capital amongst our peers. As mentioned, Sinton did face some oxygen supply challenges in the quarter, which have since been corrected and productivity has been re-established here around about 80% and growing.

    我們嚴謹的投資方式持續支持強勁且不斷成長的全週期現金產生狀況,同時維持同業最高的投資資本報酬率之一。如上所述,Sinton 在本季度確實面臨一些氧氣供應挑戰,但這些問題後來得到糾正,生產力已恢復到 80% 左右,並且還在不斷提高。

  • The facility continues to improve operational reliability, enhance its downstream operations. Despite the hurdles, Sinton increased its EBITDA, as we said, and we expect a meaningful, positive shift in its financial performance for the remainder of the year.

    該設施不斷提高運作可靠性,增強其下游營運。儘管面臨重重障礙,Sinton 仍然提高了其 EBITDA,正如我們所說,我們預計其今年剩餘時間的財務表現將出現有意義的積極轉變。

  • The four flat roll steel coating lines are also continuing to increase volume and achieve high-quality standards. These types of high return investments are key to our value-added product and supply chain differentiation strategies.

    四條平捲鋼板塗裝生產線也持續增加產量並達到高品質標準。這些類型的高回報投資是我們增值產品和供應鏈差異化策略的關鍵。

  • Theresa and I already shared the exciting update for biocarbon. This is an integral part of our sustainability program that's truly differentiating us in the eyes of our customers.

    特蕾莎和我已經分享了有關生物碳的令人興奮的最新消息。這是我們永續發展計畫的一個組成部分,它使我們在客戶眼中真正與眾不同。

  • As I said, finally, we're incredibly excited to be officially part of the aluminum flat roll product supply chain. Our Aluminum investments are compelling and parallel our entry into the then antiquated steel industry over 30 years ago.

    正如我最後所說的,我們非常高興能夠正式成為鋁平卷產品供應鏈的一部分。我們對鋁業的投資引人注目,與我們 30 多年前進入當時已經過時的鋼鐵業的時間一致。

  • And there are distinct similarities industry with generally odor inefficient assets at a considerable cost disadvantage and companies challenged to earn their cost of capital, thereby, unable to reinvest in facilities and new technology due to lack of funds. So we believe we have a significant competitive position with Aluminum.

    並且存在明顯的相似之處,該行業通常具有低效率的資產,成本處於相當大的劣勢,並且公司面臨著賺取資本成本的挑戰,因此由於缺乏資金而無法對設施和新技術進行再投資。因此我們相信我們在鋁業方面具有顯著的競爭地位。

  • Unlike our entry into the oversupplied steel market, there is a significant domestic supply deficit of over 1.4 million tons for aluminum sheet, and this deficit is forecast to grow. In 2024, that deficit was supplied through high-cost imports, which are now even higher cost as the tariffs increased from 10% in '24 to the current 50% level.

    與我們進入供應過剩的鋼鐵市場不同,國內鋁板供應缺口龐大,超過140萬噸,而且預計缺口還會擴大。2024 年,這一缺口將透過高成本進口來彌補,而由於關稅從 1924 年的 10% 上升至目前的 50%,進口成本現在更高了。

  • There's clear alignment with many of SDI's core competencies of construction and operational know-how. Our ability to build large capital-intensive assets has been proven once again at Columbus. It's a phenomenal facility. The customers are in awe. Our team did a great job.

    這與 SDI 的許多核心建立能力和營運技術明顯一致。我們建立大型資本密集型資產的能力在哥倫布再次得到了證明。這是一個非凡的設施。顧客們都驚嘆不已。我們的團隊做得很好。

  • We have a deep experience operating, melding, rolling, and finishing facilities. Our differentiating performance-driven culture will drive higher efficiency and lower cost operations.

    我們在操作、熔煉、軋製和精加工設施方面擁有豐富的經驗。我們差異化的績效驅動文化將推動更高效率和更低成本的營運。

  • There's also excellent commercial alignment. Two-thirds of our carbon flat rolled steel customers consume and process aluminum flat roll sheet.

    商業協調也十分優秀。我們的三分之二的碳扁鋼客戶消費和加工鋁扁捲板。

  • We will have both Steel and Aluminum product offerings as we gain market share in the automotive sector. And our new penetration into the countercyclical beverage can market sector is a new market for us.

    隨著我們在汽車領域的市場份額不斷擴大,我們將同時提供鋼鐵和鋁產品。我們對逆週期飲料罐市場領域的新滲透對我們來說是一個新的市場。

  • We can take great advantage of our raw material platform to drive higher recycled content. As noted by Theresa earlier, we are the largest North American metals recycler, including aluminum and we developed new separation technologies, allowing us to have access to use of aluminum scrap at lower cost.

    我們可以充分利用我們的原料平台來提高回收率。正如 Theresa 之前所說,我們是北美最大的金屬回收商,包括鋁,我們開發了新的分離技術,使我們能夠以較低的成本利用鋁廢料。

  • Still confident in our earnings differentiation, through-cycle EBITDA of $650 million to $700 million plus $40 million to $50 million for Omni. As we discussed in the past, the four key areas of advantage are labor efficiency, higher recycled content, higher yield -- excuse me, and optimize the logistics.

    我們仍然對我們的獲利差異化充滿信心,整個週期的 EBITDA 為 6.5 億至 7 億美元,加上 Omni 的 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。正如我們過去討論過的,四個關鍵優勢領域是勞動效率、更高的回收內容、更高的產量——對不起,還有優化物流。

  • This strategic investment is a cost-effective and high-return growth opportunity, providing SDI with a new product offering and growth platform. And obviously, the project is no longer just a vision, it's here.

    這項策略性投資是一個具有成本效益和高回報的成長機會,為 SDI 提供了新的產品和成長平台。顯然,該項目不再只是一個願景,它已經實現。

  • The customer base is excited to have a new market entrant that is known to be innovative, customer-focused, and responsive to their needs. For us, business relationships are long-term, founded on trust and the continuous goal of creating mutual value.

    客戶群很高興能有這樣一家以創新、以客戶為中心、並能滿足客戶需求而聞名的新市場進入者。對我們來說,業務關係是長期的,建立在信任和持續創造共同價值的目標上。

  • As our Aluminum growth has become a reality and our reputation permeates the industry, aluminum professionals with vast experience have joined us in this exciting project. They see the vision and are energized by our culture, where they realize they will be heard and can have an impact.

    隨著我們的鋁業成長成為現實,我們的聲譽滲透到整個行業,擁有豐富經驗的鋁業專業人士加入了我們這個令人興奮的項目。他們看到了我們的願景,並被我們的文化所激勵,他們意識到他們的聲音會被聽到,並能產生影響。

  • They've helped us build a phenomenal team that combines in-depth knowledge of aluminum flat rolled Aluminum Operations, commercial markets, process technology, and customer service, complementing our SDI professionals that bring our performance-driven, entrepreneurial culture. Conversations with existing and new customers remain robust, as they need and desire new supply options. We have several automotive and beverage can producers that plan to aid us in the product development and rapid product certification as we ramp operations.

    他們幫助我們建立了一支出色的團隊,該團隊結合了對鋁壓延鋁業務、商業市場、工藝技術和客戶服務的深入了解,與我們的 SDI 專業人員相輔相成,帶來了以績效為導向的創業文化。與現有和新客戶的對話仍然活躍,因為他們需要並渴望新的供應選擇。我們有幾家汽車和飲料罐生產商計劃在我們擴大營運的同時協助我們進行產品開發和快速產品認證。

  • In the interim, we will be selling a lot of industrial and can sheet products with the expectation to reach our optimized product mix sometime in 2027. Three of our four mill cast houses are fully commissioned at Columbus and are producing all 3,000, 5,000, and 6,000 series ingots for industrial can sheet and automotive sectors.

    在此期間,我們將銷售大量工業和罐頭板材產品,預計在 2027 年某個時候實現產品組合最佳化。我們四家鑄造廠中的三家已在哥倫布全面投入使用,生產用於工業罐板和汽車行業的所有 3,000、5,000 和 6,000 系列鑄錠。

  • The hot mill and cold mill are in startup and are on schedule and have successfully produced 3,000 series industrial coils. The numerous downstream lines are also in various stages of commissioning and startup, all on schedule.

    熱軋機和冷軋機均已開車並按計劃順利完成,並已成功生產出3000系列工業卷。眾多下游生產線也正處於調試和啟動的不同階段,一切按計劃進行。

  • Based on our current pace, we anticipate exiting 2025 at a utilization rate of between 40% to 50% and exit 2026 at a rate of 75% as product certifications occur. We expect to be at EBITDA breaking to slightly positive before the end of '25 and increasing thereafter, as we continue to ramp and optimize our product mix.

    根據我們目前的進度,我們預計到 2025 年,利用率將在 40% 至 50% 之間,到 2026 年,隨著產品認證的完成,利用率將達到 75%。隨著我們繼續擴大和優化產品組合,我們預計 EBITDA 將在 25 年底之前略微突破正值,此後將繼續成長。

  • You have to be there, but there's a real sense of excitement across our company and the plan, driven by a passion to build on our legacy in Steel and lead a transformation in the North American aluminum market. We're impassioned by our current and future growth plans, as they will continue to drive the high-return growth momentum we have constantly demonstrated.

    你必須在場,但我們公司和計劃都充滿了興奮,這源於我們熱衷於在鋼鐵領域傳承並引領北美鋁市場轉型。我們對當前和未來的成長計畫充滿熱情,因為它們將繼續推動我們不斷展現的高回報成長動能。

  • The earnings growth of these new projects is compelling. The capital spending for Sinton, the four value add lines, and aluminum dynamics largely complete with a projected future through-cycle EBITDA contribution from these projects alone of over $1.4 billion.

    這些新項目的獲利成長引人注目。Sinton、四條增值生產線和鋁動力的資本支出已基本完成,預計未來整個週期的 EBITDA 貢獻將超過 14 億美元。

  • Steel Dynamics has grown to an incredibly resilient, cash generating business of scale and diversification, driven by the best teams in the world. They will maximize opportunity as the industry continues to undergo a paradigm shift where we have a renewed focus on strategic mercantilist policies to ensure fair and sustainable competition.

    在世界最優秀團隊的推動下,Steel Dynamics 已發展成為一家極具韌性、能夠產生現金、規模化、多元化的企業。隨著產業繼續經歷範式轉變,他們將最大限度地利用機會,我們重新關注戰略重商主義政策,以確保公平和可持續的競爭。

  • It's already evident by the recent positive trade determinations for coded for that role, and obviously, all the 232 tariff initiatives on steel and aluminum. And importantly, the inclusion of tariffs on steel content and derivative products, particularly fabricated structural steel, which has plagued the domestic industry for years.

    從最近針對這一角色做出的積極貿易決定,以及顯然針對鋼鐵和鋁的所有 232 項關稅舉措,已經可以看出這一點。更重要的是,對鋼鐵及其衍生產品徵收關稅,特別是結構鋼,這已經困擾國內產業多年。

  • (technical difficulty) of risk mitigation to address supply chain dislocations is accelerated reshoring of manufacturing. AI and cloud computing will support the need for more non-residential construction for data centers, chip factories, battery plants, along with growing fixed asset investment associated with public and private dollars.

    解決供應鏈錯位風險緩解的技術困難之一是加速製造業回流。人工智慧和雲端運算將支援更多非住宅建設的需求,例如資料中心、晶片工廠、電池廠,以及公共和私人資金相關的固定資產投資的成長。

  • Decarbonization itself will materially steepen the global cost curve, providing Steel Dynamics with a meaningful competitive advantage to gain market share and increase margins. The evolving metals industry landscape provides an opportunity for us to further enhance our earnings potential.

    脫碳本身將顯著提高全球成本曲線的陡峭度,為 Steel Dynamics 提供有意義的競爭優勢,以獲得市場份額並提高利潤率。不斷發展的金屬產業格局為我們進一步提升獲利潛力提供了機會。

  • So as we've said before, we really are blessed, and our people are the foundation and fuel of our success. I want to personally thank each of them for their passion, commitment, and unwavering dedication. And we are committed to them, and I remind those listening today, that safety for yourselves, your families, and to each other is our highest priority.

    正如我們之前所說,我們真的很幸運,我們的員工是我們成功的基礎和動力。我要親自感謝他們每個人的熱情、承諾和堅定不移的奉獻。我們致力於實現這些目標,我提醒今天的聽眾,你們自己、你們的家人以及彼此的安全是我們的首要任務。

  • I'd also be remiss not to express my gratitude to our loyal customers, many of whom have been with us since the beginning. These partnerships are built on mutual trust, keeping our word, and delivering innovative solutions that enhance their value. Our new Aluminum partners can expect the same level of commitment and collaboration.

    我也要向我們的忠實客戶表達我的謝意,他們中的許多人從一開始就與我們合作。這些合作關係建立在相互信任、信守承諾和提供可提升其價值的創新解決方案的基礎上。我們的新鋁業合作夥伴可以期待同樣程度的承諾和合作。

  • And to our suppliers and service providers, thank you. We value your continued support and the strong relationships we've built together.

    也感謝我們的供應商和服務提供者。我們珍惜您的持續支持以及我們共同建立的牢固關係。

  • Our culture and business model continue to differentiate our performance, leading to best-in-class financial performance. And as a circular metals business, we're uniquely positioned to offer lower carbon supply chain solutions, enhancing sustainability while helping to mitigate cash flow volatility through all market cycles.

    我們的文化和商業模式繼續使我們的表現與眾不同,從而帶來一流的財務表現。作為一家循環金屬企業,我們擁有獨特的優勢,能夠提供低碳供應鏈解決方案,增強永續性,同時幫助減輕所有市場週期中的現金流波動。

  • This positioned us to deliver superior shareholder returns and create lasting value for us all. We look forward to creating even more new opportunities for everyone today and in the years ahead.

    這使我們能夠為股東帶來卓越的回報並為我們所有人創造持久的價值。我們期待今天和未來的歲月為大家創造更多新的機會。

  • And with that said, Holly, we would love to answer the questions of the group.

    話雖如此,霍莉,我們很樂意回答小組的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Carlos de Alba, Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員指示)Carlos de Alba,摩根士丹利。

  • Carlos De alba - Analyst

    Carlos De alba - Analyst

  • Yeah, hello. Good morning. Just on the Ali business, congrats on producing and shipping the first coil. Just wanted to maybe get a little bit more collar on what drove the slightly lower utilization rate in 2025 and 2026. And also the delta in the EBITDA profitability, which I think, before, it was said that in the second half of the year, it will be EBITDA positive.

    是的,你好。早安.就阿里業務而言,祝賀其生產並運送了第一個線圈。只是想進一步了解 2025 年和 2026 年利用率略低的原因。還有 EBITDA 獲利能力的增量,我認為,之前有人說過,今年下半年 EBITDA 將為正值。

  • Maybe just the semantics and it's still the same message, but it felt that now -- I felt that the EBITDA positive now is coming at the very back end of the year, whereas before, maybe, it was my expectation that it would be more earlier in the second half of the year. Thank you.

    也許只是語義上的問題,它傳達的訊息仍然相同,但現在的感覺是——我感覺 EBITDA 正值即將在年底出現,而之前,也許我預計它會在下半年早些時候出現。謝謝。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I don't think there's any material change in our view, to be honest. I guess, 50% -- 40% to 50%, given that we're in a startup. I think having a specific number is -- might be problematic, but there's no underlying change in our thought process, our mill capability, or anything to have that change, I guess.

    嗯,老實說,我認為我們的觀點沒有任何實質的改變。我想,考慮到我們是一家新創公司,這個比例大概是 50% 到 40% 到 50%。我認為有一個具體的數字可能會有問題,但我猜我們的思考過程、我們的工廠能力或任何會導致這種改變的事情都沒有根本性的變化。

  • Carlos De alba - Analyst

    Carlos De alba - Analyst

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • You have another question? I didn't quite hear all that.

    您還有其他問題嗎?我沒聽清楚這些。

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • No, Carlos, we still are confident that as we progress, we do believe that we're still going to be EBITDA positive in the second half of the year. I guess we got a little more specific in our notes saying in the fourth quarter.

    不,卡洛斯,我們仍然有信心,隨著我們的進步,我們確實相信我們在今年下半年仍然會實現 EBITDA 正成長。我想我們在第四季的筆記中對此有了更具體的說明。

  • But whether that's September, October, November, December, or October, November, I'm not sure that there's a significant difference. So I think the takeaway should be that we still have full confidence in the Aluminum operation. The team's doing an incredible job and we weren't trying to message anything specifically otherwise.

    但無論是九月、十月、十一月、十二月,或是十月、十一月,我都不確定是否有顯著差異。因此我認為,關鍵在於我們仍然對鋁業務充滿信心。團隊做得非常出色,我們並沒有試圖傳達任何特別的訊息。

  • Carlos De alba - Analyst

    Carlos De alba - Analyst

  • Fair enough. Thank you. Thank you both.

    很公平。謝謝。謝謝你們兩位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

    Katja Jancic,BMO 資本市場。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you for taking my question. Maybe on Sinton, can you disclose how much of EBITDA the mill generated in 2Q?

    你好,謝謝你回答我的問題。也許在 Sinton 上,您能透露一下該工廠在第二季度產生了多少 EBITDA 嗎?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Katja, I'm sorry, we -- I think beginning at the end of -- or the beginning of this year, we're not specifically giving the financial metrics as it relates to Sinton. Suffice it to say, it was significantly better than the first quarter. That said, there's still a step function increase that we're expecting in the second half of the year.

    Katja,很抱歉,我想從今年年底或年初開始,我們不會具體給出與 Sinton 相關的財務指標。可以這麼說,這比第一季好得多。話雖如此,我們預計今年下半年仍會出現階躍式成長。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • And when we do look at the second half of the year, is this the mill now at a point where it could generate closer to that $500 million annualized rate, or are there any lingering issues though?

    當我們展望下半年時,這家工廠現在是否能夠產生接近 5 億美元的年化利潤,還是還存在一些揮之不去的問題?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • It's a good question, Katja. So they're still not operating at that pace, given that they need to continue with the product development. As Barry mentioned, we're really excited because they're doing automotive grades now, API grades.

    這是個好問題,卡佳。因此,由於他們需要繼續進行產品開發,因此他們仍未按照這樣的速度運作。正如 Barry 所提到的,我們非常興奮,因為他們現在正在生產汽車級產品,即 API 級產品。

  • But we need to be able to get the facility with the proper mix of that value-added opportunity and that will take some time. So that will likely take through the second half of the year. So I would do 2026 is that opportunity for Sinton to be at the, what we say, through-cycle run rate to your point of around $500 million.

    但我們需要能夠獲得具有適當增值機會的設施,這需要一些時間。因此這可能需要持續到今年下半年。因此我認為 2026 年是 Sinton 實現整個週期運行率達到約 5 億美元的機會。

  • Katja Jancic - Analyst

    Katja Jancic - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tristan Gresser, Exane BNP Paribas.

    特里斯坦‧格雷瑟 (Tristan Gresser),法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

  • Tristan Gresser - Analyst

    Tristan Gresser - Analyst

  • Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just to follow up on the Aluminum venture, if you can discuss the market environment in which you'll be ramping up your new Aluminum facility.

    是的,你好。感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是為了跟進鋁業合資企業的情況,您可以討論一下您將在什麼樣的市場環境中擴大新的鋁業生產設施。

  • I mean, it looks very different from what was the initial base case or initial market environment. So from a trade, from a demand perspective, where do you see the new opportunities and also maybe the risk associated?

    我的意思是,它看起來與最初的基本情況或最初的市場環境非常不同。那麼從貿易和需求的角度來看,您認為新的機會在哪裡,以及可能的風險在哪裡?

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well I think the, if anything, the environment is becoming even more positive obviously. The deficit is -- supply deficit is definitely there. That will continue to grow. And it's being supplied obviously by imports with the huge tariff attached to it.

    嗯,我認為,如果有的話,環境顯然會變得更加積極。短缺是——供應短缺肯定存在。這一數字也將持續成長。顯然,這些產品都是透過進口供應的,而且需要繳納高額關稅。

  • So us bringing volume on in that environment is very positive for us, and in all honesty, for the customer base, as well. So I don't think we see any issues there.

    因此,在這種環境下增加銷售對我們來說非常有利,坦白說,對客戶群也是如此。所以我認為我們沒有發現任何問題。

  • I think conversations with our customers has been absolutely incredible. We've started to bring the larger folks through our mill. And I said it earlier, they are absolutely blown away by the facility and the capabilities.

    我認為與客戶的對話絕對令人難以置信。我們已經開始讓更大的人來我們工廠工作。我之前說過,他們絕對被該設施和能力所震撼。

  • And I think even more so, our approach, as we talk through supply arrangements and product capability, they recognize that we truly do partner with the customer. And I think they're finding that refreshing. So there's no blemishes, I guess. I think we're excited, if not more excited today than we ever have been.

    我認為更重要的是,當我們談論供應安排和產品能力時,他們意識到我們確實與客戶合作。我認為他們發現這令人耳目一新。所以我猜沒有瑕疵。我想我們很興奮,甚至比以前任何時候都更興奮。

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • And Tristan, to add to what Mark just described as a more positive environment, when we modeled and projected the $650 million to $700 million of through-cycle EBITDA associated with our Aluminum investments, the spreads that we actually used from a product that are more conservative than what we're seeing in the market environment today. So there is a lot of upside opportunity.

    特里斯坦,除了馬克剛才所描述的更積極的環境之外,當我們建模並預測與鋁投資相關的 6.5 億至 7 億美元的全週期 EBITDA 時,我們實際使用的利差比我們今天在市場環境中看到的更為保守。因此存在著很大的上行機會。

  • Tristan Gresser - Analyst

    Tristan Gresser - Analyst

  • All right. That's clear. And I was, maybe, referring to potential demand destruction. Especially when it comes to can and beverage, we know prices elasticity is quite -- could be high. But I guess, from your conversation with customers, it doesn't seem there is a risk there, if I understood correctly.

    好的。這很清楚。我可能指的是潛在的需求破壞。特別是當談到罐頭和飲料時,我們知道價格彈性相當高。但我想,如果我理解正確的話,從您與客戶的對話來看,那裡似乎不存在風險。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Again, talking to the end consumers, not the can makers themselves, but they do not see that. There still an overwhelming desire from a societal and environmental perspective to eliminate plastic bottles. And there is a clear desire from the can makers and from the bottlers and from the Coca-Colas, the Pepsi's, the beer guys, they're all wanting aluminum right now.

    再次,與最終消費者交談,而不是罐頭製造商本身,但他們沒有看到這一點。從社會和環境角度來看,人們仍然強烈希望消除塑膠瓶。罐頭製造商、瓶裝商、可口可樂、百事可樂和啤酒製造商都明確表示他們現在都需要鋁。

  • Tristan Gresser - Analyst

    Tristan Gresser - Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe just then a follow up on the tariff situation. I think you discussed it already in Q1 but wanted to see if there are any changes regarding your exposure to pig iron. If you could comment on how much do you source maybe from Brazil.

    好的。也許就在那時對關稅情況進行跟進。我認為您已經在第一季度討論過這個問題,但想看看您對生鐵的接觸是否有任何變化。如果您能評論一下您從巴西採購了多少產品嗎?

  • And if -- I mean, I understand with the 10%, it was not a big deal, but if we get 50% on pig iron imports from Brazil starting August, so what could you do? What could you put in place to mitigate those impacts? And then I have a follow up.

    如果——我的意思是,我理解 10% 並不是什麼大問題,但如果從 8 月開始我們從巴西進口生鐵的比例達到 50%,那麼你能做什麼呢?您可以採取什麼措施來減輕這些影響?然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, Tristan, this is Barry Schneider. The pig iron topic is one that we're watching closely. I want to make it clear that our long products mills do not use any iron substitutes or pig iron. So this is a flat rolled issue.

    是的,特里斯坦,這是巴里施耐德。生鐵話題是我們正在密切關注的話題。我想明確指出的是,我們的長材廠不使用任何鐵替代品或生鐵。所以這是一個平面問題。

  • And our three flat roll producing plants -- our butler facility has an iron producing facility where we use waste oxides and recycled iron content to generate our pig iron. So the butler mill is largely independent of the merchant trade, which brings us to the products we do purchase.

    我們的三家平板軋輥生產廠-我們的巴特勒工廠擁有一座煉鐵廠,我們利用廢棄氧化物和回收的鐵元素來生產生鐵。因此,管家工廠很大程度上獨立於商業貿易,這為我們帶來了我們購買的產品。

  • The tariff is concerning. Historically, the United States government has not looked at raw materials as something that would be tariffed, going way back to the founding of our country. The 201, the 301, and the 232 previously did not tariff pig iron coming into the country.

    關稅令人擔憂。從歷史上看,美國政府從建國之初就不認為原料是需要徵收關稅的商品。此前,201、301 和 232 法案均未對進入該國的生鐵徵收關稅。

  • We maintain a supply chain that has been under quite a bit of duress on the past five years. Historically, pigs irons produced in Russia and Ukraine. Since Russia launched the war against Ukraine, those materials have been severely reduced.

    過去五年來,我們維持的供應鏈一直承受著相當大的壓力。歷史上,生鐵產於俄羅斯和烏克蘭。自從俄羅斯對烏克蘭發動戰爭以來,這些物資就大幅減少。

  • We still maintain a relationship with Ukrainian producers. To the extent that they can supply, we're happy to buy from them. But we have shifted a lot of our production to Brazil.

    我們仍然與烏克蘭生產商保持著關係。只要他們能夠供應,我們很樂意從他們那裡購買。但我們已將大量生產轉移到巴西。

  • So as we look at the tariff landscape, we balance our metallic spreads. One of the things we talk about a lot is being able to get more value out of the scrap recycled supply chain. It's one of the powerful benefits of having iron -- of having Omni as a captive scrap supplier to us that we can bring in the highest quality materials and continuously balance based on cost, productivity, and quality.

    因此,當我們觀察關稅情勢時,我們會平衡金屬價差。我們經常談論的事情之一是如何從廢料回收供應鏈中獲得更多價值。擁有鐵的強大優勢之一就是擁有 Omni 作為我們的專屬廢料供應商,我們可以引進最高品質的材料,並在成本、生產力和品質的基礎上不斷保持平衡。

  • So we'll manage as we always do. There are alternatives we can explore. And we'll continue to work with the government and hope that there is some kind of relief when it comes to raw materials in the tariffs strategy. So to that point, the specifics are always changing based on the various cost inputs.

    因此我們會像往常一樣進行管理。我們還可以探索其他選擇。我們將繼續與政府合作,希望關稅戰略在原料方面能有所緩解。因此,到目前為止,具體情況總是會根據各種成本投入而改變。

  • It's literally a model our people can work every day depending on what scrap assets and iron assets they have at their disposal. So we continue to look at it as a challenge for us to thrive in. Our culture's developed a good competency and we attack it every day.

    這實際上是一種模式,我們的員工可以根據自己掌握的廢料資產和鐵資產進行日常工作。因此,我們繼續將其視為我們蓬勃發展的挑戰。我們的文化已經形成了良好的能力,我們每天都在攻擊它。

  • Tristan Gresser - Analyst

    Tristan Gresser - Analyst

  • All right. That's very clear. And if you allow me, the last one. Just the big pictures on tariffs. On section 232 tariffs and the -- do you think this time is different versus 2018? Are you confident we want to see a dilution in the tariffs and that those sectoral tariffs are going to stay? And I'm talking about steel, but also, obviously now, aluminum.

    好的。這非常清楚。如果你允許的話,這是最後一個。僅介紹關稅的概況。關於第 232 條關稅—您認為這次與 2018 年有何不同?您是否確信我們希望看到關稅降低並且這些行業關稅將會保留?我談論的是鋼鐵,但現在顯然也談論鋁。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • This is Mark. I don't see -- well, I would say the situation will -- there's no doubt that it will change, but we do believe that tariffs will be a mainstay of the trade agreements going forward. I think the -- when you look at the first term of the administration, the renegotiation of NAFTA into the USMCA was an incredible advance on that relationship between Canada and Mexico and ourselves.

    這是馬克。我認為——好吧,我想說情況會——毫無疑問它會改變,但我們確實相信關稅將成為未來貿易協定的支柱。我認為——當你回顧本屆政府的第一個任期時,將北美自由貿易協定重新談判為美國墨西哥和加拿大協定,對於加拿大、墨西哥和我們之間的關係來說是一個令人難以置信的進步。

  • The increased domestic content and other things and that really, really has helped the US, but even more importantly, the North America as a whole. The USMCA is up for renegotiation again in 2026 and it's our belief that the tariff discussions and the trade policy discussions that have gone on between the three countries are a prelude to that.

    國內內容和其他方面的增加確實幫助了美國,但更重要的是,幫助了整個北美。USMCA 將於 2026 年再次進行談判,我們相信三國之間進行的關稅討論和貿易政策討論是此舉的前奏。

  • But we're confident that that will get renegotiated into an even better solution for the US. Principally, in preventing the -- having poured and melted language in the supply agreement such that it will prevent the leakage of Chinese and Asian, and other unfairly traded commodities coming through Canada and coming through Mexico into the States.

    但我們相信,透過重新談判,美國將獲得一個更好的解決方案。主要是防止——在供應協議中加入和融化語言,以防止中國和亞洲以及其他不公平貿易的商品透過加拿大和墨西哥洩漏到美國。

  • So I think, net net, I don't believe you see these -- the levels as it is today. But I think it's all going to lead to a much better trade environment going forward for the long term.

    所以我認為,總的來說,我不相信你會看到這些——今天的水平。但我認為從長遠來看,這一切都將帶來更好的貿易環境。

  • Tristan Gresser - Analyst

    Tristan Gresser - Analyst

  • All right. Thanks a lot.

    好的。多謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc.

    KeyBanc 的 Phil Gibbs。

  • Phil Gibbs - Analyst

    Phil Gibbs - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Can you explain the benefit of biocarbon and the potential ability to replace other materials? I think I just wanted a better understanding of what it brings to the table.

    嘿,早安。您能解釋一下生物碳的好處以及替代其他材料的潛在能力嗎?我想我只是想更好地理解它帶來的好處。

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Good morning, Phil. So yeah, so what we initially intended biocarbon for is that it will allow us to replace a large portion, the first facility, not the entirety of our anthracite usage as carbon inputs for our steel making. So we'll be sending this to our own steel mills so that we can actually reduce the carbon footprint by as much as 35%.

    早上好,菲爾。是的,我們最初打算使用生物碳,因為它可以讓我們取代第一家工廠的大部分無菸煤,而不是全部無菸煤作為我們煉鋼的碳投入。因此,我們將把它送到我們自己的鋼廠,這樣我們實際上可以減少高達 35% 的碳足跡。

  • But there's also attributes related to the process where we produce some hydrogen as well, so it's pretty unique. There'll be more to come as we start to ramp up the facility. It's very modular based so we can grow it.

    但它也與我們生產氫氣的過程相關的屬性,所以它非常獨特。隨著我們開始擴大設施,還會有更多。它基於模組化,因此我們可以擴展它。

  • And what that could likely help us do, in the long-term, is a couple of things. One, we've talked about in the past is -- and we talked about pig iron for a bit already on the call this morning. And if we had additional supply of biocarbon, we could potentially have our own supply of pig iron in the US. And it would be considered, when you use the terminology green, but would be low carbon. So there's a long investment thesis related to the biocarbon product for us.

    從長遠來看,這可能會幫助我們做幾件事。首先,我們過去曾討論過——今天早上我們在電話會議上已經討論過生鐵了。如果我們有額外的生物碳供應,我們就有可能在美國擁有自己的生鐵供應。當你使用“綠色”這個術語時,它會被認為是低碳的。因此,我們對生物碳產品有一個長期的投資論點。

  • But it also -- we found, with certain of our OEM customers, it's not something that we'll get into this morning, but they feel like there's a unique opportunity for different credits, too, are newer to them as well, from a carbon perspective, where it would really be a superior product that we could certify to in the flat roll steel arena.

    但我們也發現,對於我們的某些 OEM 客戶來說,這不是我們今天早上要討論的事情,但他們覺得,對於不同的信用來說,這也是一個獨特的機會,從碳的角度來看,這對他們來說也是更新的,它確實是一種我們可以在平板鋼領域進行認證的優質產品。

  • So there's more to come for biocarbon. Just let us get started this quarter and we'll keep talking about it.

    因此生物碳還有更大的發展空間。讓我們從本季開始,我們將繼續討論它。

  • Phil Gibbs - Analyst

    Phil Gibbs - Analyst

  • I appreciate that.

    我很感激。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, just add to that. I think, you need to look at it in the broader sense of our whole sustainability strategy and the path to carbon neutrality. There absolutely no doubt that there's no dilution of focus, particularly from the European automakers.

    是的,只需添加這一點。我認為,你需要從更廣泛的角度來看待我們整個永續發展的策略和碳中和之路。毫無疑問,人們的注意力不會分散,尤其是歐洲汽車製造商。

  • And as Barry said, (technical difficulty) the domestic auto sector is suffered a little bit. Our mainstay or main volume is actually flowing through Mercedes and BMW and VW, and a little bit maybe through Volvo, but nonetheless, we're very focused on the European supply.

    正如巴里所說,(技術困難)國內汽車產業受到了一定影響。我們的支柱或主要銷售實際上是來自梅賽德斯、寶馬和大眾,也許還有一部分來自沃爾沃,但儘管如此,我們仍然非常關注歐洲的供應。

  • They have not taken their foot off the accelerator relative to carbon footprint and to sustainability. And I think, if you look at the penetration that our team has achieved in auto, its squarely driven by our sustainability position.

    他們在碳足跡和永續性方面並未放鬆步伐。我認為,如果你看看我們的團隊在汽車領域的滲透率,你會發現這完全是由我們的永續發展立場所推動的。

  • And we're leveraging the fact that we already are, already have the lowest carbon footprint mills in the in the world today. And that's not us saying that, that's European manufacturers saying it.

    我們正在利用這一事實,即我們已經擁有當今世界上碳足跡最低的工廠。這不是我們說的,而是歐洲製造商說的。

  • So it is totally differentiating us in the marketplace. And I think just the award from VW for sustainability here that Barry and Volkswagen went over to Europe to pick up. I mean, it was incredible.

    因此,它使我們在市場上完全脫穎而出。我認為大眾汽車永續發展獎是巴里和大眾汽車公司前往歐洲領取的。我的意思是,這真是令人難以置信。

  • Phil Gibbs - Analyst

    Phil Gibbs - Analyst

  • Thanks, Mark and Theresa. And then as a follow up, in terms of expectations for Sinton on the third quarter, are there expected to be sequential profit improvement? And if there is, what drives it? And then also, what do you -- what can we define as the dollar headwind associated with that lost production in the second quarter of Sinton? Thank you.

    謝謝,馬克和特蕾莎。然後作為後續問題,就 Sinton 第三季的預期而言,預計利潤是否會連續改善?如果有的話,其驅動力是什麼?那麼,您認為——我們可以將什麼定義為與 Sinton 第二季度產量損失相關的美元逆風?謝謝。

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • So again, I know that everyone's interested in the profitability of Sinton, specifically. I would say what we believe will drive the significant increase in third and then fourth quarter earnings from Sinton will be, one, volume. Volume, volume, volume.

    所以,我知道大家都特別關心 Sinton 的獲利能力。我想說,我們認為推動 Sinton 第三季和第四季收益大幅成長的因素是:第一,銷售量。音量,音量,音量。

  • So we do believe that we're going to have higher volume but also higher value-added product mix, which is key to the profitability at Sinton. And we won't have had the curtailment of the oxygen and we also had a maintenance outage in April. So there are some key things, high-level, that we have confidence in that will drive that increased profitability.

    因此,我們確實相信,我們將擁有更高的產量,同時也會有更高附加價值的產品組合,這是 Sinton 獲利的關鍵。而且我們不會出現氧氣減少的情況,而且我們在四月還進行了維護停機。因此,我們對一些關鍵的高層次事物充滿信心,這些事物將推動獲利能力的提升。

  • Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • And Theresa, I'd like to add to that. The value-added lines, having two galvanizing facilities down there now and two paint lines, the cost, the quality of starting those facilities up, they're expensive products to make. So as we ramp up and get more yielded product to the marketplace, that really significantly reduces the loss costs of -- the loss cost in making high-quality.

    特蕾莎,我想補充一點。加值生產線,目前擁有兩條鍍鋅設施和兩條油漆生產線,成本、啟動這些設施的質量,都是昂貴的產品。因此,隨著我們增加產量並向市場推出更多產品,這確實顯著降低了生產高品質產品的損失成本。

  • So we're very excited about what the teams are getting with the yields and the percent prime that they ship to marketplace. We're also very excited about the anti-dumping and countervailing duties because when you really look at the inventories that surged ahead of the AD CBD rulings, we've been competing with a lot of warehoused material that came from 10 different countries into our country.

    因此,我們對團隊獲得的收益以及他們向市場交付的百分比感到非常興奮。我們對反傾銷和反補貼稅也感到非常興奮,因為當你真正看到反傾銷和反補貼稅裁決之前激增的庫存時,我們一直在與來自 10 個不同國家的大量倉儲材料競爭。

  • And those inventories remain and are slowly being worked out. The promise of having an actual final rulings here by September helps substantiate that the markets will return to more normal profit contributions.

    這些庫存仍然存在,並且正在慢慢處理。承諾在九月前做出實際的最終裁決有助於證實市場將恢復更正常的利潤貢獻。

  • So we're excited about that cost of quality. It was ambitious putting two lines in at once, but we're starting to benefit from the team just really becoming professional painters and coders. So we're excited about that future position because of the improvements the team makes every day.

    因此,我們對品質成本感到非常興奮。同時投入兩條生產線是雄心勃勃的計劃,但我們開始從團隊真正成為專業畫家和程式設計師的過程中受益。由於團隊每天都在取得進步,我們對未來的職位感到興奮。

  • Phil Gibbs - Analyst

    Phil Gibbs - Analyst

  • Thanks for all that added color there, everyone. I appreciate it.

    感謝大家為這裡增添的色彩。我很感激。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexander Hacking, Citi.

    花旗銀行的亞歷山大‧哈金 (Alexander Hacking)。

  • Alexander Hacking - Analyst

    Alexander Hacking - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. You mentioned that you expect Fab to see an inflection point. Is that being driven by price or volume or both? Thanks.

    是的,謝謝。您提到您預計 Fab 將迎來一個轉折點。這是由價格還是數量還是兩者共同決定的?謝謝。

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Good morning, Alex. The primary driver of the inflection point for Fabrication in -- coming up here in the third quarter is volume, but there's also stability in the price, which is very supportive.

    早安,亞歷克斯。第三季製造業拐點的主要驅動力是產量,但價格也保持穩定,非常具有支撐作用。

  • Alexander Hacking - Analyst

    Alexander Hacking - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. Can I ask a follow up or just stick to one?

    好的。謝謝。我可以問後續問題還是只問一個?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Go ahead. Everyone else's.

    前進。其他人的。

  • Alexander Hacking - Analyst

    Alexander Hacking - Analyst

  • All right. So I guess, Barry, in your comments, you talked about some of the enhanced sorting technology that's available with aluminum scrap, right? And the potential there that you could source more for your rolling mill. In a world where Canada has 50% tariff on primary material, it's a big if, right, going forward, but we'll see.

    好的。所以我想,巴里,在你的評論中,你談到了一些可用於鋁廢料的增強分類技術,對嗎?並且您可以為您的軋機提供更多的潛力。在加拿大對原材料徵收 50% 關稅的世界中,這是一個很大的如果,對吧,未來會怎樣,但我們拭目以待。

  • Could you maybe quantify or discuss like the opportunity for Steel Dynamics and, more broadly for the US, to use more of the scrap that we basically currently export because we can't sort it all for various other reasons. And just -- is this something that could be material for Steel Dynamics? Thank you.

    您能否量化或討論 Steel Dynamics 以及更廣泛意義上的美國利用更多目前主要出口的廢料的機會,因為出於各種其他原因,我們無法對所有廢料進行分類。那麼——這對 Steel Dynamics 來說是否具有實質意義?謝謝。

  • Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • The investments that Omni have made have really been focused on the existing scrap supply streams. In the United States, over 70% of the steel generated is from arc furnaces and recycled scrap. So the more value we can extract, the more those products can find their way back into a high-quality application.

    Omni 所做的投資其實主要集中在現有的廢棄物供應流。在美國,超過70%的鋼鐵產自電弧爐和回收廢料。因此,我們提取的價值越多,這些產品就越能回歸到高品質的應用中。

  • So our teams are very focused on all of the different technologies together. We continue to see value with partnering with our customers to be able to segregate that scrap at the very beginning of the supply chain. Those are all products that the American steel producers are very good at getting.

    因此我們的團隊非常注重所有不同技術的整合。我們繼續看到與客戶合作的價值,能夠在供應鏈的最開始階段分離廢料。這些都是美國鋼鐵生產商非常擅長取得的產品。

  • OmniSource separates us from the rest because it's such a captive loop that we provide real-time benefit from the scrap yards, the suppliers, right into our mill chops. So the secret of getting that value is having a system that allows you to know when you can get the best products into the furnace 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

    OmniSource 讓我們與眾不同,因為它形成了一個封閉的循環,我們可以將廢料場、供應商的即時利益直接提供給我們的工廠。因此,獲得這種價值的秘訣是擁有一個系統,讓您知道何時可以每週 7 天、每天 24 小時將最好的產品放入熔爐中。

  • And that's the competency our teams have worked very hard together. And having a scrap and steel company that are so closely partnered has really allowed us that benefit. So we'll continue to do that. That's where value is. Anytime we can find higher-value recycled content, that's what we're all about.

    這就是我們的團隊共同努力的成果。擁有一家與我們密切合作的廢料和鋼鐵公司確實為我們帶來了好處。因此我們會繼續這樣做。這就是價值所在。只要我們能找到更高價值的再生材料,我們就會盡力去做。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And to add to that, obviously, P1020, the tariff is appreciating the cost of that. So the increased recycled content, obviously, is compounding. But also, UBCs today are selling around -- it's got back to where they were a year or so ago, 58% discount. It's a 58% discount of a bigger number and so, the spread opportunity is enhanced, in our minds, quite considerably.

    而且顯然,除此之外,P1020 的關稅正在升值其成本。因此,顯然,回收內容的增加是複合的。而且,UBC 今天的銷量已經回到了大約一年前的水平,折扣為 58%。這是一個較大數字的 58% 折扣,因此,在我們看來,傳播機會得到了相當大的增強。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lawson Winder, Bank of America Securities.

    勞森·溫德(Lawson Winder),美國銀行證券。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, Mark, Theresa, Barry. Nice to hear from you and thank you for the update.

    偉大的。謝謝您,接線生。早安,馬克、特蕾莎、巴瑞。很高興收到您的來信並感謝您的更新。

  • On the coded steel overhang that you discussed, are you seeing this overhang dissipate at all now into Q3? And could this potentially mean a sales flow through benefit in Q3 '25? So could we be potentially modeling an unusual pick up in sales in Q3?

    關於您所討論的編碼鋼懸垂問題,您是否看到這種懸垂問題在第三季度已經消散?這是否意味著 2025 年第三季的銷售流將受益?那麼,我們是否有可能預測第三季的銷售額將出現異常回升?

  • Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • I wouldn't call it unusual. I would think it's more returning to levels that we would historically have seen with spreads between coded and hot roll products. We do see the inventories winding down. And more importantly, we don't see more material coming in behind that.

    我不會稱之為不尋常的。我認為它更多地回到了我們歷史上看到的編碼和熱卷產品之間的價差水平。我們確實看到庫存正在減少。更重要的是,我們沒有看到更多材料湧入。

  • And I think that's the significance of the anti-dumping CBD cases. Those are based on existing trade law and have a long-term window where we look at sunset reviews to watch behavior of certain countries and companies within those countries.

    我認為這就是反傾銷CBD案件的意義所在。這些都是基於現有的貿易法,並且有一個長期窗口,我們可以藉此觀察日落審查,以觀察某些國家和這些國家內公司的行為。

  • So to establish these precedents now in and amongst the 232 discussions, this creates a level playing field where we can do what we do best. And we see it as returning to the normal profitability levels you would see with these value-added products.

    因此,現在在 232 次會議討論中建立這些先例,這將創造一個公平的競爭環境,讓我們能夠做我們最擅長的事情。我們認為它將恢復到這些增值產品的正常獲利水準。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Okay. Sure. Thanks, Barry. If I could just add one follow up. On the oxygen availability, can you elaborate on what was driving the supplier's decision to limit that supply? And then just like stepping back and looking at this from like a sourcing point of view, is that market particularly tight in the Southwest that somehow prevents you from finding a backup supply?

    好的。當然。謝謝,巴里。如果我可以新增一個後續內容。關於氧氣供應情況,您能否詳細說明促使供應商決定限制供應的原因是什麼?然後,就像退一步從採購的角度來看待這個問題一樣,西南地區的市場是否特別緊張,以某種方式阻止您找到備用供應?

  • Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Well, I think when you think about the Texas community, the petroleum industry is very large down there as we all know. So we had the opportunity to actually receive the oxygen through a pipeline agreement, whereas sometimes, we would more typically have an air separation plant on our site.

    嗯,我想當你想到德州社區時,你就會知道那裡的石油工業規模非常大。因此,我們有機會透過管道協議實際接收氧氣,而有時,我們通常會在我們的現場設立一個空氣分離裝置。

  • So this provided us with a good alternative, we believe. We believe it is a good long-term alternative, but when there was a maintenance problem at the supply facility, the entire region, to some extent, actually backed off of what they consumed.

    因此我們相信這為我們提供了一個很好的選擇。我們相信這是一個很好的長期替代方案,但是當供應設施出現維護問題時,整個地區實際上在某種程度上減少了消耗。

  • So we are definitely evaluating whether or not we can invest other technologies on site that make it more reliable. This isn't something we would anticipate being a regular event. Quite surprised that it happened, but happy how we worked through it.

    因此,我們肯定會評估是否可以在現場投資其他技術,使其更加可靠。我們不希望這成為一次常規事件。發生這樣的事讓我很驚訝,但很高興我們解決了這個問題。

  • And so we'll always look at supply chain problems, but we think we have a good supply chain solution here. And going forward, we don't expect it to be an issue.

    因此,我們始終關注供應鏈問題,但我們認為我們有一個很好的供應鏈解決方案。展望未來,我們預計這不會成為一個問題。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Harris, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的麥克·哈里斯。

  • Mike Harris - Analyst

    Mike Harris - Analyst

  • Yeah, good morning and thanks for taking my question. Just one for me here.

    是的,早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。這裡只有我一個。

  • You guys highlighted that your Steel and Aluminum products have overlapping customer bases. But what about the internal sales organization? Is that the same or is it a separate sales force? And if the latter, how should we think about the potential SG&A impact as you ramp up on Aluminum?

    你們強調說,鋼鐵和鋁產品有重疊的客戶群。但內部銷售組織怎麼樣?它們是相同的嗎?還是說是一支獨立的銷售團隊?如果是後者,那麼當您增加鋁產量時,我們應該如何考慮潛在的銷售、一般和行政費用影響?

  • Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Barry Schneider - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Well, actually we have independent sales teams. There are certain markets where our people will overlap, for sure, because we have such good relationships. So there are some construction areas and in an automotive where our teams will work closer together, but the materials are quite different, particularly, in automotive where the product has to be developed. So we believe it'll be positive, but it doesn't allow us to have just one sales team. It'll be unique.

    嗯,實際上我們有獨立的銷售團隊。因為我們之間的關係非常好,所以在某些市場我們的人員肯定會有重疊。因此,在某些建築領域和汽車領域,我們的團隊將更加緊密地合作,但材料卻截然不同,特別是在需要開發產品的汽車領域。因此我們相信這將是積極的,但它不允許我們只有一個銷售團隊。這將是獨一無二的。

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • So like your specific question around ramp up of the SG&A, you're actually going to see the opposite, uniquely, because up until this point, because we were on construction, all the costs that weren't capitalizable related to the project actually had to be recorded in SG&A. Now that we're in startup, you're going to start to see those operational costs be appropriately in cost of goods sold, so you're going to see a decline overall in SG&A on the income statement.

    因此,就像您關於增加銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 的具體問題一樣,您實際上會看到相反的情況,這是獨一無二的,因為到目前為止,由於我們還在建設中,所有與項目相關的不可資本化的成本實際上都必須記錄在銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 中。現在我們處於創業階段,您將開始看到這些營運成本適當地計入銷售成本,因此您將看到損益表上的銷售、一般和行政費用總體下降。

  • Mike Harris - Analyst

    Mike Harris - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. So that's a good color.

    好的。謝謝。所以這是一個很好的顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Jones, UBS.

    瑞銀的安德魯瓊斯。

  • Andrew Jones - Analyst

    Andrew Jones - Analyst

  • Hi. A couple. Just firstly, on the Fab side, you're talking about stable prices in 3Q. I mean, obviously, post tariffs. The substrate prices, obviously, moved up quite a bit when those were first introduced.

    你好。一對。首先,就 Fab 方面而言,您談到了第三季的穩定價格。我的意思是,顯然是關稅之後。顯然,當這些產品首次推出時,基板價格上漲了不少。

  • I mean, do you expect to pass on those higher substrate prices like into the 4Q later in the year, or have we met buyer resistance given current demand levels? I've got a second one if -- I'll follow with afterwards.

    我的意思是,您是否預計這些更高的基板價格會在今年稍後傳遞到第四季度,或者考慮到當前的需求水平,我們是否遇到了買家的阻力?如果有的話我還有第二個 - 我會隨後跟進。

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Good morning, Andrew. Related to the substrate cost, yes, steel prices, as they go up, we only keep around 8 to 10 weeks of steel substrate on the ground in our Fabrication Operations, so it will go up.

    早安,安德魯。與基材成本相關,是的,隨著鋼材價格上漲,我們在製造業務中僅保留約 8 到 10 週的鋼基材,因此價格會上漲。

  • But like one has to remember is that volume has a significant cost compression in Fabrication. There's not a lot of fixed asset investment. It's more manpower.

    但人們必須記住的是,數量在製造過程中具有顯著的成本壓縮。固定資產投資不多。需要更多的人力。

  • And so with that, as we have incremental volume, really, that profitability drops very quickly to the bottom line. And that's the main driver for what we expect to see for improved profitability in the second half of the year.

    因此,隨著我們銷量的增加,獲利能力實際上會迅速下降至底線。這是我們預計下半年獲利能力提高的主要驅動力。

  • Andrew Jones - Analyst

    Andrew Jones - Analyst

  • But you don't see any scope for really increasing price for the current environment?

    但您認為在當前環境下,價格沒有任何真正上漲的空間嗎?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • No, I didn't say that. But we don't really talk about pricing commercial aspects or my commercial team's going to get excited with me. (laughter) So no, that shouldn't be your takeaway.

    不,我沒有這麼說。但我們實際上並沒有談論商業方面的定價,否則我的商業團隊會對我感到興奮。(笑聲)所以,不,這不應該是你的收穫。

  • Andrew Jones - Analyst

    Andrew Jones - Analyst

  • Yeah, sure. And just on -- I mean, follow up. I know everyone's asked a lot of questions about it. But the -- I don't know if you can give us a ballpark utilization in 2Q or a ballpark for where the proportion of value add. Was that in 2Q and like, just as we go into 3Q, 4Q, how much that's likely to uplift so we can understand the potential for profitability improvement?

    是的,當然。並且繼續 — — 我的意思是跟進。我知道每個人都問了很多有關這個問題的問題。但是——我不知道您是否可以給我們一個大概的第二季的利用率,或者大概的增值比例。這是在第二季嗎?就像我們進入第三季、第四季一樣,這可能會提升多少,以便我們了解獲利能力改善的潛力?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • I don't have it top of mind specifically from a percentage basis, Andrew. What I would suggest is if you look at -- we give you the coded volumes for flat roll products. And if you look at the coded volumes over the last four quarters and look at how it's trailed down because of that inventory import situation that we've had in flat roll, take that into consideration with we consider most of structurals and most of engineer bars value-add.

    安德魯,我並沒有從百分比的角度特別考慮這個問題。我的建議是,如果你看一下——我們會給你平卷產品的編碼卷。如果你看一下過去四個季度的編碼量,看看它是如何因為我們在扁平卷中遇到的庫存進口情況而下降的,考慮到這一點,我們認為大多數結構和大多數工程鋼筋都有增值。

  • You'll get a pretty good indication of the room we have to grow that volume in the second half of this year. But I'm sorry, I just don't have those metrics top of mind.

    您將清楚了解我們今年下半年的成長空間。但很抱歉,我並沒有把這些指標放在心上。

  • Andrew Jones - Analyst

    Andrew Jones - Analyst

  • And this is a question just on the Ali business. I mean, you obviously flagged the more supportive market conditions that we're seeing now. I mean, it might be difficult to answer it, but the -- that $650 million to $700 million, I mean, what would that look like if we put everything on spot today? I mean, do you have any ballpark for how profitable that operation could be at full capacity?

    這只是關於阿里業務的問題。我的意思是,你顯然標記了我們現在看到的更具支持性的市場條件。我的意思是,這可能很難回答,但是——那 6.5 億到 7 億美元,我的意思是,如果我們今天把所有事情都落實到位,那會是什麼樣子?我的意思是,您能大概估計一下該業務在滿載運轉的情況下能獲利多少嗎?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Andrew, I'm sorry, that's not something that we would share at this point. We're still leaning in. We like to talk through-cycle.

    安德魯,很抱歉,我們現在還不能分享這個主題。我們仍在努力。我們喜歡討論整個週期。

  • That's how we make our investment decisions, both from an acquisition perspective and from greenfield. So we'll stick with the $650 million to $700 million on a through-cycle basis and then let our results speak for themselves in the coming months.

    這就是我們做出投資決策的方式,無論是從收購的角度或綠地的角度。因此,我們將在整個週期中堅持 6.5 億至 7 億美元的投資,然後讓我們的結果在未來幾個月內說明一切。

  • Andrew Jones - Analyst

    Andrew Jones - Analyst

  • Excellent. Cool. Thank you very much.

    出色的。涼爽的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Tumazos, Private Investor.

    約翰·圖馬佐斯(John Tumazos),私人投資者。

  • John Tumazos - Private Investor

    John Tumazos - Private Investor

  • Thank you for taking my questions. First, you mentioned some aluminum alloy numbers in your presentation. And they were unfamiliar to me. Maybe if David could circulating a message afterwards, repeating the alloy numbers and maybe what their chemistry are, that would help to educate us on aluminum.

    感謝您回答我的問題。首先,您在演講中提到了一些鋁合金的數字。而他們對我來說也是陌生的。也許如果大衛可以在之後傳播一條訊息,重複合金編號以及它們的化學成分,這將有助於我們了解鋁。

  • But more important, in terms of qualifying for can sheet and auto sheet in Aluminum, what are the dimensions of qualification or the theaters the customer scrutinizes? Do you have to separately qualify the cleanliness of the scrap, the slab metallurgy, gauge in shape, ductility, surface coatings? Teach us what the hurdles are.

    但更重要的是,在鋁罐板和汽車板的資格認定方面,客戶審查的資格維度或範圍是怎樣的?您是否必須分別對廢料的清潔度、板坯冶金學、形狀規格、延展性、表面塗層進行鑑定?告訴我們有哪些障礙。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • (inaudible) John. And it's always good to talk to you because you always seem to be the last question. I don't know why that is. But nonetheless, talking about the series 3,000, 5,000, 6,000, those are the principal grade groups.

    (聽不清楚)約翰。和你交談總是一件很愉快的事,因為你似乎總是最後一個被問到問題。我不知道為什麼會這樣。但儘管如此,談到 3,000、5,000、6,000 系列,這些是主要等級組。

  • So 3,000, you got -- and I'm not super expert on this, but yeah, [3,104, 3,103], 3,000. They tend to be the -- a lot of the industrial grades, and the cam sheet grades. 5,000 series is more of a heat-treated. And then 6,000 tends to be focused principally in automotor. So those are just the different sort of grade groups that one has.

    所以你得到了 3,000 — — 我對此並不是非常專家,但是是的,[3,104, 3,103],3,000。它們往往是——許多工業級和凸輪板級。 5,000 系列更多的是經過熱處理的。其中 6,000 家主要集中在汽車領域。所以這些只是一個人所擁有的不同類型的等級組。

  • The -- relative to the qualification, it's not dissimilar to qualifying steel, in all honesty. Relative from a process standpoint, they will -- in the automotive world, a little bit more detail, but they will look at the whole process from start to finish and have the ISO or whatever and the automotive quality criteria.

    相對於資格而言,老實說,它與資格鋼鐵並沒有什麼不同。相對而言,從流程的角度來看,在汽車領域,他們會更加詳細一些,但他們會從頭到尾審視整個流程,並擁有 ISO 或其他汽車品質標準。

  • Can sheet, a little different that tends to be an in-use type of qualification. Obviously, cleanliness for a can sheet, given that it's real, real thin, and it holds beer at pressure. The cleanliness is crucial there. But no great difference, I would say, John, relative between Steel and Aluminum.

    罐頭表有點不同,往往是一種使用中的資格類型。顯然,考慮到罐板非常非常薄,並且能夠承受壓力,因此需要確保罐板的清潔度。那裡的清潔至關重要。但是我想說,約翰,鋼和鋁之間沒有太大的區別。

  • John Tumazos - Private Investor

    John Tumazos - Private Investor

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bill Peterson, JP Morgan.

    摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

  • Bill Peterson - Analyst

    Bill Peterson - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for sneaking me in. Thanks for all the information.

    是的,你好。大家早安。謝謝你偷偷帶我進來。感謝您提供的所有資訊。

  • A lot of my questions have been asked, but I want to ask about the utilization for the mill. So I guess, outside of the normalization of Sinton coming off the oxygen supply issue, how should we think about mill shipments in the third quarter? Does the demand environment you see today support a return of utilization approaching or exceeding 90% in the third quarter?

    我已經問了很多問題,但我想問工廠的利用情況。因此,我想,除了辛頓擺脫氧氣供應問題後恢復正常之外,我們應該如何看待第三季的工廠出貨量?您今天看到的需求環境是否支援第三季利用率恢復到接近或超過 90%?

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I think if you look at the overall utilization quarter-over-quarter, it was a little disappointing for us. But it was a confluence principally of the oxygen issue in Sinton. And then we had our scheduled maintenance outages, actually, all three mills in the quarter. So Butler, Columbus, and Sinton. So I think a large portion of that will turn into the third quarter.

    是的,我認為如果你看一下季度環比的總體利用率,我們會感到有點失望。但這主要是由於辛頓的氧氣問題造成的。然後,我們進行了計劃內的維護停機,實際上本季所有三家工廠都進行了維護停機。所以巴特勒、哥倫布和辛頓。所以我認為其中很大一部分將進入第三季。

  • Bill Peterson - Analyst

    Bill Peterson - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for that. And I know you don't like to get precise on pricing in the downstream Fab business, but wanted to see if there's anything you wanted to color on in terms of mixed impacts, mixed between joist and [deck] as it may relate to some of the projects you're expecting in the third quarter? Just anything -- just that we should be mindful of?

    好的。謝謝。我知道您不喜歡精確地了解下游 Fab 業務的定價,但我想看看在混合影響方面是否有任何您想強調的內容,例如托樑和 [甲板] 之間的混合,因為這可能與您預計在第三季度進行的一些項目有關?只是任何事情——只是我們應該注意的事情?

  • Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

    Theresa Wagler - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary

  • Thanks for the question, Bill. That shift, I know you know fairly well that we started to get more and more into deck. But consistently now, probably, for at least the last year, it's basically about 50% deck and 50% joist and I don't see that changing in the second half of the year.

    謝謝你的提問,比爾。那個轉變,我知道你很清楚我們開始越來越多地進入甲板。但現在,可能至少在去年,基本上是 50% 的甲板和 50% 的托樑,我認為下半年不會改變。

  • Bill Peterson - Analyst

    Bill Peterson - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thanks again for the color and for sneaking me in.

    完美的。再次感謝你的色彩和讓我偷偷進入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想把發言權交還給米利特先生,請他做最後發言。

  • Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Millett - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Super. Thank you, Holly. And just quickly, thank you to everyone on the call today. Thank you for listening in, for your time.

    極好的。謝謝你,霍莉。我還要向今天參加電話會議的每個人表示感謝。感謝您的收聽,感謝您的時間。

  • For those that are invested in us, thank you for your direct support. Would love to have everyone else that's not, join the family.

    對於那些投資我們的人,感謝你們的直接支持。我非常希望其他沒有加入這個大家庭的人也能加入。

  • And talking to family, team members, SDI, folks at the -- thank you, thank you, thank you for phenomenal job each and every day. And remember to be absolutely safe for yourselves, for your colleagues, and for your family, in general.

    並與家人、團隊成員、SDI 以及其他人交談——感謝你們,感謝你們,感謝你們每天的出色工作。請記住,為了您自己、您的同事以及您的家人,請務必確保絕對的安全。

  • And to the new members or joiners and partners to SDI through the Aluminum, we look forward to working with you in the future. And hopefully, we'll show that we are a totally differentiated company for you to work with. So thank you, everybody. Have a good day. Be safe.

    對於透過鋁業加入SDI的新成員或加入者以及合作夥伴,我們期待未來與您合作。希望我們能向您證明,我們是一家完全與眾不同的公司,值得您與之合作。謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。注意安全。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation and have a great and safe day.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,祝您有個愉快、安全的一天。